Fri 31 Jul 2009
This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.
For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labelled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.
For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.
And finally, a little weekend humor, Arrive on Vacation Leave on Probation by BT Wall, hat tip to Brian Donohue at the Star Ledger.
From the Record:
Vacancy rate for Bergen, Passaic industrial space rising
The vacancy rate for Bergen County’s more than 121 million square feet of warehousing, distribution and logistics increased to 7.7 percent in the second quarter, up from 6 percent in the same period last year, according to statistics released by Cushman & Wakefield, the commercial real estate brokerage. Passaic County’s vacancy rate for industrial space rose to 6.7 percent in the second quarter from 5.5 percent the same period a year ago.
The increased vacancy rate locally comes as the rate nationally climbed to 10.7 percent nationwide in the second quarter, an increase of 1.2 percentage points — the largest one-quarter gain in at least 22 years, according to the commercial real estate brokerage Grubb & Ellis.
North Jersey’s industrial market has shown strength relative to other markets, brokers and landlords have said, because of this area’s density and proximity to New York City.
From the Record:
Clifton woman admits to $15M investment scam
Her day job was collecting tickets and ushering at Giants Stadium and the IZOD Center, but a Clifton woman admitted Thursday that her side business was a real estate Ponzi scheme that swindled investors out of millions.
Marcia Sladich, 51, admitted in U.S. District Court in Newark that she promised investors a 100 percent risk-free return within a year by investing their money in real estate ventures in the U.S. and abroad.
Instead, Sladich shelled out dividends to early investors using money from new ones, paid her own credit card and mortgage bills and bought real estate in Florida and Brazil for herself and her family.
Sladich kept the money flowing in by promising investors additional payments for every new member they recruited.
Her Clifton-based firm, Kay Services, raised $15 million between 2004 and 2007, authorities said.
From HousingWire:
House Passes Foreclosure Rental Bill
The House of Representatives this week passed a bill that would authorize federally-insured depository institutions and banks to lease real estate-owned homes for a limited period of time — up to five years.
The House approved HR 2529, the Neighborhood Preservation Act, in a voice vote Wednesday. The bill’s language allows banks covered through the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to lease back houses it owns through foreclosure.
By allowing these institutions to enter long-term leases with occupants of the foreclosed property or other parties to restrict the number of houses moving onto the market, the bill aims to keep unsold inventory down and in turn help stabilize home values and restore confidence in housing markets. It would also generate monthly payments and ultimately reduce the extent of the loss taken by the bank upon the property’s sale.
“Allowing depository institutions and affiliates of such institutions to lease foreclosed property will allow the institution or affiliate to dispose of such property into a presumably more stable market at the end of the lease term which would reduce the loss the institution or affiliate may otherwise be required to recognize upon disposition of the property,” the bill reads.
…
The think tank, the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), called for passage of a right to rent law to allow all homeowners the option to remain in their homes after foreclosure.
“While this [bill] may allow some number of homeowners to stay in their homes as renters, it is unlikely to benefit the vast majority of homeowners who are facing foreclosure, since the decision to allow homeowners to become long-term renters will be left with the bank,” the CEPR said in its statement. “If Congress does want to give foreclosed homeowners the option to stay in their homes as renters, it will be necessary to pass legislation that explicitly gives them this right.”
From Bloomberg:
Auto ‘Clunkers’ Offer in Doubt After Going Through $1 Billion
The U.S. government’s $1 billion “cash for clunkers” program to spur new car sales ran through the money six days after it began, Senator Debbie Stabenow said.
Stabenow, a Michigan Democrat, and other lawmakers called for an infusion of taxpayer money to subsidize more new-vehicle purchases in the effort to revive dealerships and automakers while getting older, less fuel-efficient vehicles off the road.
“It is amazing that ‘cash for clunkers’ would be this successful this quickly,” said Stabenow in an e-mailed statement yesterday. “I urge Congress and the administration to provide additional funding.”
Named the Car Allowance Rebate System, the program provides credits of as much as $4,500 for the purchase of a new car when turning in an older vehicle to be scrapped. Lawmakers had expected the program to generate about 250,000 vehicle sales and to have enough money to last until about Nov. 1.
From BaristaNet:
Real Estate Agents Rescue Kitties
I’m a bit behind, dont know if this has been posted, but it’s a stunner:
Victor Vangelakos lives in a luxury condominium tower on the Caloosahatchee River. He never has to worry about the neighbors making too much noise.
There are no neighbors.
Vangelakos, 45, his wife Cathy and their three children are the only residents in the 32-story Oasis I condo on the east edge of downtown Fort Myers.
http://www.news-press.com/article/20090730/NEWS0110/90729077/1076
Went on my first distress sale appointment in Tewksbury last night. 1 mm+ neighborhood.
NYC surgeon, property is second home. Trashed. Surgeon tapped out, explained “I can’t sleep at night”. However, has a great attitude “I hear all my friends complaining, and I think ‘big deal…how bad can it be to only have to sell your second home’”.
Of course, vulture that I am, I asked as to how bad off the friends are. Surgeon replies, “complete wipeout”.
And yes, the surgeon’s friends are other surgeons and MDs.
Green shoots…
Mikey, feeling better:
“Wow, talk about spin. Today’s number came in above Street expectations but CNBC and the Talking Boobs spun this to tell us they were “really” expecting 600,000+. Here’s what I know. The Street number was 570,000 and it came in at 584,000. That’s NOT good, but GE/Warren Buffet owned CNBC wants you to believe it was Grrreeat.
Then we heard from CNBC’s Steve Liesman, a man with less credibility than my dirty socks, and he said this was a great number because the Street was “really” expecting 600,000+ and the moving average of those collecting unemployment benefits was slighlty lower.
Yo - Steve . . . you know better, but if you told us the truth you would be out of a job. The truth is this . . . the average of those collecting benefits is lower because they have been unemployed for so long that they have exhausted their beneifts and this means they go on Welfare, Food Stamps or worse. So, Steve Liesman . . . my advice to you is tell the truth or find another job. Why do we grant people like this the right to mislead us?
Wake up America. I believe we are now in a repeat of the summer of 1929 but this time we are on Steroids. And let’s start with CNBC. It’s is owned by GE . . . and they received Bailout Billions. They are infected with Goldman Sachs folks like Jim Cramer and Erin Burnett. And the hands of the squirrel, Warren Buffetn, are in the middle of it all. Wake Up America.
Let me close with this. A half a million jobs lost a week is NOT good. It is NOT slowing down. In fact, it is far worse than the number reveal because we have many more Independent Contractors today, than we had 10 years ago. These include lawyers, real estate agents, mortgage broker, and many self-employed folks. It’s NOT getting better and it is NOT slowing down. We have not seen the bottom yet. Wake UP America.”
http://realestateandhousing2.blogspot.com/2009/07/jobless-claims-july-30-2009-cnbc-spin.html
Clot: And these numbers always get adjusted upward.
From Reuters:
Euro Zone Jobless at 10-Year High, Prices Drop
Euro zone unemployment rose to a 10-year high of 9.4 percent in June, though the level was less than expected, while July inflation moved much further into negative territory than forecast, data showed on Friday.
The jobless rate in the 16-country euro zone edged up from May’s downwardly revised 9.3 percent as 158,000 people lost their jobs, European Union statistics office Eurostat said.
RE market in Hoboken is on fire, 7 UC this week. where’s the recession??
http://hudson.fnismls.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=e90afa74-b95e-4f85-b892-fb73c95dea5e&Report=Yes
#3 Grim
is this another version of shadow inventory?
Hey folks, for anyone that was trying to get in touch with me, I’ve been out of the loop for the last few weeks. I’m finally back in town and will be getting back to you.
“It is amazing that ‘cash for clunkers’ would be this successful this quickly”
Now Pavlov’s dog is conditioned; don’t buy unless accompanied with a govt handout. No incentive from govt to buy a house, tax break? Not to worry, sit on the fence and wait for the 16K tax break. Presently, why would anybody buy without a free handout? Result? You get a blip and the pundits cheer from the rafters. What’s next? The slide down the slope of hope moves to the next chapter.
Clot [7],
It’s actuall scary how this script mirrors the 30’s. Eerily similar.
Frank,
Do something productive. We haven’t had a weekend mall report in a long time.
Re : “she promised investors a 100 percent risk-free return within a year”
They ought to arrest those “investors” too. Anybody who bought that Line Of Bull should be hauled in.
BC (16)-
All I want to know is whether the rats outnumber the shoppers.
And to you know who about that deal. I take it the email this morning was a confirmation that everything went through.
Thanks for the good news, I appreciate that.
Big congrats on a killer deal.
Where is Bi? GDP numbers will be out in a few minutes.
Best coach ever.
LONDON (AP) - Bobby Robson, who coached England to the 1990 World Cup semifinals and won football trophies in four countries, died on Friday, his family said. He was 76.
“It is with great sadness that it has been announced today that Sir Bobby Robson has lost his long and courageous battle with cancer,” a family statement said. “He died very peacefully this morning at his home in County Durham with his wife (Elsie) and family beside him.”
The popular and garrulous coach, who was given a knighthood in 2002 for his services to football, was diagnosed with cancer five times since 1991 and had continued to work until November 2007.
Robson never won the English championship, but played for England at the 1958 World Cup and, as coach, took his country to its strongest World Cup finish since its 1966 title before stints at PSV Eindhoven, Sporting Lisbon, FC Porto and Barcelona.
He rose to fame in the 1970s when he turned unfashionable Ipswich into one of the country’s top teams, winning the FA Cup and UEFA Cup.
His last club job was at Newcastle, the club he supported as a boy, and he took his final role as a mentor to novice Ireland coach Steve Staunton in January 2006 at age 72.
“I did what I loved, and I did what I was pretty good at and I suppose what I was born for,” Robson said in 2005. “I enjoyed my career. It was wonderful.
“I played for some fabulous clubs and I played for England. Then I got the top job, the best job in the world really. I managed England.”
JOB UPDATE: I just accepted a 6 month gig with a financial firm. It will probably be extended afterwards and turn into a permanent position but I’m still open to full time opportunities if they present themselves.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Q2 GDP down 1.0% annual vs -1.2% expected
U.S. Q1 GDP revised down 6.4% vs -5.5 prev est
Pol Clot,
American football camps open this week, get with the program and drop that futbul stuff. You need to be a proud American where at least you know you’re free! ;)
Gary - welcome back from the dead.
#22 - Double good news this morning! Green shoots!
How can you survive in this game when the rules keep changing?
#4 Imagine the car outfits that spent untold bucks on advertising - down the drain. Now buyers will wait for the $5B in funds - they will be on the fence again.
#3 “If Congress does want to give foreclosed homeowners the option to stay in their homes as renters, it will be necessary to pass legislation that explicitly gives them this right.”
What are the rules? The two biggest purchases a person makes and these yahoos keep jerking everyone around.
Sean,
I was looking to collect off the backs of you slaves for another few months. Oh well! ;) Thanks anyway! :)
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Economy Contracted at 1% Annual Rate in Second Quarter
The U.S. economy shrank at a slower pace in the second quarter, a sign the worst recession since the Great Depression is winding down.
Gross domestic product contracted at a less-than-projected 1 percent annual rate after shrinking 6.4 percent in the prior three months, the most in 27 years, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Revisions showed the economic downturn last year was even deeper than previously estimated.
…
“We’re well on our way to a recovery but, inevitably, it’ll be choppy,” Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at U.S. Deutsche Bank Securities in New York, said before the report. “The consumer is taking a back seat as we still have major job losses. The labor market really needs to show a lot of improvement.”
The economy was forecast to shrink at a 1.5 percent pace, according to the median estimate of 78 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from a 0.7 percent gain to a decline of 2.9 percent.
GDP was down 3.9 percent from the second quarter in 2008, the biggest drop since quarterly records began in 1947. Last quarter’s decline was the fourth in a row, also the longest losing streak on record.
22 Gary
Congrats! I hope it goes perm!
grim,
I was actually going to change my name to “green shoots gary” this morning.
Yeah Gary @ 22. You can still have the Starbucks but the meds may have to go…
lostinny,
TY! :) I’m going from an 8 month vacation to a fire storm on Monday morning. Ugh!
Cindy,
I refuse to give up my daily 200mg xanax* hobbie!
That is one hell of a revision there on GDP, Q4 2008 was finalized at -6.3 and now they are saying Q1 was -6.4.
re# 28 - Gary my FIL just got a job too, he was only a few months away from selling his Corvette to me in a Cash for Corvettes program I am starting up.
http://dealbreaker.com/2009/07/more-goldman-smack-talk.phpI know it’s Fox News but a Nomi Prins article made the rounds yesterday so I thought some here would find this interesting.
A game of catch-me-if-you-can that the MBS Senate panel may find very hard to win.
http://www.streetsblog.org/2009/07/30/private-sector-taps-into-demand-for-bike-parking/
Is this helpful Grim?
33 Gary
My return to work always starts with a firestorm. Welcome to the club. :)
Cindy,
I’m in mod, must be the drug reference! LOL! I was saying that I’m not giving up all my bad (good) habits! :)
Congrats, Gary. Try to lay off the sedatives until at least lunchtime.
Want to make a good impression, mate…
Cindy - dog and pony show down in Washington DC, they are all heading out for the summer at the conclusion of business today.
August 3 - September 4 is their Summer District Work Period, and they really won’t be back to work until after the Sept 7th.
Sean,
Shucks! You were so close to low-balling a Vette! :)
Recession was deeper in ‘08 than previously known
G-Man,
Congrats. You’re buying.
Pol Clot,
Can I substitute the seditives for a bottle of bourbon?
Wait ’til the next leg of this depression hits.
I think we’re 4-5 weeks away from GS yelling “fire”.
gary (46)-
Nah. I’m not a pillhead.
congrats Gary,
wtf though, should have held out until Labor day :)
Business Beat: Economy not out of the woods
[41],
Hope you still have your 1999 hat, Dow 10K.
BC,
Indeed! Line them up! We can do shots of PM and chase it with a glass of Rheingold, Jersey City style!
http://dealbreaker.com/2009/07/more-goldman-smack-talk.php
I see the More Goldman Smack Talk link @36 didn’t work. I’ll try again
“Look at the thousands with million dollar a year salaries at JPM”
My best friend is one of them. Says they are getting hammered on the consumer side, will get worse.
Wise Muddling Through
It is a tale replete with error. In theory, Ben Bernanke, Henry Paulson and Tim Geithner were as well prepared as anyone for this sort of event. Bernanke had spent his life studying the Great Depression; Paulson had led the world’s most prestigious investment bank; Geithner had been involved in financial rescues in Asia and beyond.
Moreover, all of them were expecting some kind of crisis. They knew there had been a dangerous surge of debt.
And yet as the panic unfolded in 2007 and 2008, they continually underestimated its scope and implications. In July 2007, Bernanke estimated global losses from the subprime mortgages and other loans of $50 billion to $100 billion. The losses turned out to be in the neighborhood of $4 trillion. In October of 2007, Bernanke said the banking system was healthy and doubted that the housing woes would destabilize it. He was wrong.
7. Being Broke is the new Black.
Cindy [53],
Senate panel vs Goldman? Need I say more.
(22) Gary
Great news. Good luck.
42 - Sean
Re: the dog and pony show….You know me by now…I really am holding out hope that one of these panels or some of these people are there with our best interests at heart. Yes, I hear you laughing…
Downward revisions to GDP make baby Jesus cry.
Even worse when you consider that government spending made up a significant portion of the “improvement”.
Cindy - would never laugh, that isn’t my style, don’t expect much from DC is all I am saying.
Recession Economy? On Its Way Out
What is missing is any plausible source of economic demand. After 2001, the housing bubble fueled consumer spending, construction, and growth. This time around, consumers, anxious to rebuild their balance sheets, are poorly placed to take the lead.
The federal stimulus package fell far short of plugging the projected output gap, and fresh cuts at the state and local level will neutralize much of the package. With the rest of the world following us into a deep recession, the prospects for export-led growth also appear dim.
The biggest problem, though, remains the labor market, where unemployment will quickly top 10%. Even if the official recession ends this year, the last two recessions and their “jobless recoveries” suggest it will be two to three more years before the labor market begins to tighten again.
Clot: Bayern Muenchen has a new Dutch coach, Louis van Gaal, with limited German (never understood how they coach with no language skills) and you should see one of his press conferences. Whenever asked a question, he avoids giving an answer by calling the questioner stupid. I wonder if it’s a cover for the fact that he can’t string words in German into sentences.
http://goal.com/en/news/15/germany/2009/07/30/1412727/angry-bayern-munich-coach-louis-van-gaal-storms-from-press
Gary, congrats man, consider yourself lucky to find a job in the middle of a depression.
Congrats Gary
On the appropriate day as well. We’ll have to send you a Halmark card.
http://www.sysadminday.com/
gary says:
I just accepted a 6 month gig with a financial firm.
I remember saying hang in there a month or two ago. Congratulations!!! Too bad you have to be inside with the rest of us when the weather is nice out
Nom,
Thank You! It s*cks giving up my fair share of the O’bama handout, though! :)
Gary -
Congrats! and Good luck.
OT, however, interesting.
For the first time ever, the value of shares traded on various exchanges in China, earlier in the week, were greater than the combined value of shares traded in US, Japan and UK.
Interpret any way you wish.
Gary - Congratulations!! That is great news! Now if only my 55yo neighbor can find something…
Clot,
Robson was nowhere near the greatest. He was good, but also lucky to land with great players.
Seems Colonel Kink has found himself a job.
Henry Paulson is now an advisor to the company and will be providing guidance on Coda’s work with Chinese companies. With extensive business and political ties to China, Mr. Paulson will be a valued asset as Coda continues to build global partnerships.
Electric Car startup Coda.
http://www.codaautomotive.com/#/news
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Recession Worse Than Previously Estimated, Revisions Show
The first 12 months of the U.S. recession saw the economy shrink more than twice as much as previously estimated, reflecting even bigger declines in consumer spending and housing, revised figures showed.
The world’s largest economy contracted 1.9 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the last three months of 2008, compared with the 0.8 percent drop previously on the books, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.
“The current downturn beginning in 2008 is more pronounced,” Steven Landefeld, director of the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, said in a press briefing this week. The revisions were in line with past experience in which initial figures tended to underestimate the severity of contractions during their early stages, he said.
Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
U6 in June 2008 -> 10.1
U6 in June 2009 -> 16.5
Green Shoots !!!
62 - Sean - “would never laugh, that isn’t my style,…- thanks Sean.
I’m not quite ready to give up on DC yet. They have to come home and face some fed-up people. Elections not far off. Who knows….
veto, PGC, x-underwriter,
Thank You! I feel bad that I’m sullying the board with a million posts, so I have to high five you all at once!
Clot #7 - Is he ready to accept 30% below peak? or same as 2006 prices.
Just finding out, where in psychology scale we are. - Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, Acceptance.
RE market in Hoboken is on fire, 25 sold vs. 13 last week.
http://hudson.fnismls.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=c8344506-04f8-49c9-81cb-0747101a0703&Report=Yes
Gary, congrats, where’s the recession??
Inflation, Money Supply, GDP, Unemployment and the Dollar - Alternate Data Series
I am really shocked to GDP chart. I fail to see any drivers to support RE prices. GDP going down so fast and Unemployment going up so fast, this is definitely nightmare.
The MLS tells agents not to post links like my on the web without registration. WTF??? F them.
re #76 - Cindy - The art of talking out of both sides on ones mouth is something that the folks down in DC have perfected.
Try this little experiment at home, contact your local congressman and Senator via email or go to their website site and submit a request and ask them their position on the following 4 bills.
House:
H.R. 977, “Derivatives Markets Transparency and Accountability Act of 2009”
H.R. 2448, “Prevent Unfair Manipulation of Prices Act of 2009”
Senate:
S. 272, “Derivatives Trading Integrity Act of 2009”
S. 2447, “Prevent Excessive Speculation Act”
A little background for you.
From 1982 to 2000 over-the-counter and electronic single-stock futures had been prohibited on the commodities market. The law was changed in 2000 to exempt most of those transactions, under the urging of lobbyists for the new defunct and corrupt Enron Corp, which allowed Enron and others to speculate on future energy contracts with virtually no regulation.
Before creation of the “Enron loophole,” most of the trading on oil and gas futures was done by companies, such as utilities and airlines, that actually took delivery of the energy products. With the change, the market was taken over by traders with no intention of actually taking delivery, but with the intention turning futures into an online casino.
We shouldn’t be allowing speculators to flip oil contracts like condominiums the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 was a big mistake and needs to be fixed ASAP.
my F stock is up 52% in three months.
GXC china etf up 20% over same period.
Meanwhile my inflation hedges are barely treading water but they cant all be winnders.
I was hoping to use todays rally to cash out of some of those equity positions and hunker down for the next leg down, but every time i do that i get slapped in the face. Of course, when i finally throw in the towel and go double long S&P etf the crash will surely commence immediately thereafter.
[64] DL,
My last au pair couldn’t stand Bayern. She’d sneer whenever she saw someone here wearing a Bayern jersey. When I asked her why, she said no one in Germany likes Bayern (something about dirty play, I think).
[84] veto
I cashed out my China and oil etfs at their near recent highs (the china etf has gone up more since, but not much)
Hopefully I did not bail on the rally, but I just cannot see what is gonna drive demand.
No more writedowns!
From Bloomberg:
Ackermann Says Bad Loans Are ‘Next Wave’ of Crisis
Rising delinquencies among consumer and corporate borrowers are the “next wave” of the financial crisis and may affect banks that have avoided losses so far, said Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann.
“This crisis has consisted of a series of earthquakes, with changing epicenters,” Ackermann said late yesterday at an event in Zurich. “Bad loans are the next wave. Banks that have fared relatively well so far will also be affected by this.”
Deutsche Bank, Germany’s biggest lender, said this week it set aside 1 billion euros ($1.4 billion) for risky loans in the second quarter. The seven-fold increase in provisions and below- forecast revenue from trading sent the Frankfurt-based bank’s shares to the biggest decline in four months on July 28.
“We were struck by the 44 percent increase in problem loans in the quarter,” Morgan Stanley analysts Huw van Steenis and Hubert Lam said in a note today, cutting their rating on Deutsche Bank shares to “equal-weight” from “overweight.”
“Hopefully I did not bail on the rally”
Nom [86],
You never are wrong when you ring the register.
Cindy - Welcome to the new Town Hall meeting.
Screaming constituents, protesters dragged out by the cops, congressmen fearful for their safety — welcome to the new town-hall-style meeting, the once-staid forum that is rapidly turning into a house of horrors for members of Congress.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20090731/pl_politico/25646
Nom they just hate the Bavarians. Germans find them all snobbish as most Bavarians consider themselves Bayerish first, German second. This is straight from my inlaws who are from Alt Steinheim. Yes a married a Hessian.
Back to lurking, I mean working
[88] bc
It’s just that I am a lousy gambler. In high school, we had card games(a la Risky Business) at a friend’s house whenever his folks left town.
I justed to joke that when I missed one, my friends had to take turns losing.
That’s why I am shopping for a financial advisor. Problem is, they all want to sell me whole life insurance first.
Nom,
nice trade. dont look back. the worst thing you can do is miss the rally and jump in the morning after when everyone has hangover.
if you really want a piece of it, buy it back when everyone hates it.
“justed” should be “used” (where the hell is my mind this morning?)
re#91 - Comrade - “a la Risky Business”
Transvestite Hookers?
#93
Ha, I thought that was fancy lawyer-speak…
[90] pain
That makes sense. She did intimate once that Barvarians were snobbish boors, or something to that effect.
I think our next au pair is bavarian. So I will get the opposite perspective soon enough.
“Problem is, they all want to sell me whole life insurance first.”
[91],
Nom,
Ask them to show you their life ins policy, not a copy, the original.
recession is almost over. I only missed 1%
[94] sean,
alas, no hookers, transvestite or otherwise.
Just a lot of drinking, cigar-smoking, and card playing down in the basement rec room.
But we were running from Guido, the Killer Pimp.
And what was remarkably unfair was that I always had to provide the beer, booze, and cigars because I was the one who was best able to procure them at our tender age of 16. I also had to come up with wheels more often than my friends.
This all meant that I was always having to berate them for the beer/booze/gas/grass money. Cheap bastards.
“recession is almost over. I only missed 1%”
“Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”
Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929.
83 - Sean - Will do - Thanks for breaking it out for me.
July 31 (Bloomberg) — The first 12 months of the U.S. recession saw the economy shrink more than twice as much as previously estimated, reflecting even bigger declines in consumer spending and housing, revised figures showed.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNivTjr852TI
This is an interesting read on the counterproductive effect of the democratic tax hikes being planned. It is boilerplate tax policy, and the source (Tax Foundation) is widely acknowledged as a nonpartisan, non-agenda, tax policy and analysis group (unlike CBPP, which some on this board like to cite as authoritative, which is as rational as citing a blog).
http://www.taxfoundation.org/publications/show/24935.html
Good read, very easy to understand, and doesn’t buy into the canards on either fringe.
re #98 bi - this isn’t a game of horseshoes it is a game of hand grenades and you have just been blown to smithereens again.
Re: Leisman on CNBC
“Yo - Steve . . . you know better”
No, he really doesnt.
I love the ability of NJers to put a positive spin on what the rest of the country finds repugnant:
“This looks bad for my home state of New Jersey, but critics are failing to see the beauty in this bust. First of all, it shows how wonderfully diverse New Jersey has become. When I was kid, the Irish ran Hudson County and Jersey City, the Italians had Hoboken and Newark, and in later years Hispanics muscled into West New York and Union City. They did not share. Look at the names on yesterday’s arrest list, and it’s a beautiful rainbow of wretchedness. Italians, Jews and Irish; Hispanics, blacks and whites. Democrats and (one) Republicans. Men and women. People from age 33 to age 87.
Yet think about who’s missing here in the Soprano State. That’s right, none of those charged has been fingered by the feds as being a member of the Mafia. So many new groups are now involved in corrupting New Jersey that the Mob must have been crowded out of the market. We’re talking progress, people.”
JOB UPDATE: I just accepted a 6 month gig with a financial firm. It will probably be extended afterwards and turn into a permanent position but I’m still open to full time opportunities if they present themselves.
I’ve been contracting since 1998; only had 1 full-time stint (twice w/same comapany) since then. I prefer the contract gigs.
What type of work you do? I’ve luckily been able to go project-to-project without many gaps..
-Richie
[106] redux
the link on “The Beautiful Side of NJ Corruption”
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1912761,00.html
Big Time Bull.
You dont know what you just started with that rediculousness.
Now is the time to freshen your coffee and prepare for the paddy wagon for the rest of the morning.
Get em boys… (and ladies too)
from freep.com
Cash-for-clunker deals frozen
WASHINGTON — Less than four days after launching a popular cash-for-clunkers program, the Obama administration warned Congress the plan already had burned through its $950-million budget, setting off a rush for more money while leaving thousands of dealers and consumers in the lurch.
http://www.freep.com/article/20090731/NEWS06/907310322/1008/Clunkers-program-runs-through-its-funding–could-grind-to-a-halt
re #111 bullpucky -the only Irish guy?
They all claim Irish decent, move on to the next pasture already.
[109],
Homes, life ins, variable annuities, furniture, cars, etc.. Congrats, you’re hitting the ball out of the park.
“You are unamerican by not supporting the bull market and a racist.”
Oh no, it’s 50.5 again.
[118],
If you take 1 step forward and 2 steps backward, you arrive at 1999. You’ve been trampled in the muck for the past 10 years.
re: #117 - and you must be USDA Canner grade
via lolfed a fun story of insider trading, multiple affairs and teh intarwebs.
“While I light my cuban with a $20 dollar bill”
BigTimeBull,
Our great currency symbolizes all the things which you cannot appreciate. Burning it is illegal and disrespectful.
You should be detained and deported for these crimes.
Would serve you right for not buying American tobacco product in the first place.
JB,
How do you attract these wizards?
Let’s go to Disneyland.
http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_politics/2009/07/stop-sending-homeless-to-fla-orange-mayor-crotty-tells-nyc-mayor-bloomberg.html
A tribute to New Jersey!!!
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/tue-july-28-2009/hey–c-mon-that-s-not—–why-would-you—-whoa-
Life insurance question for the guru’s.
is a medical exam and blood work standard for a 500K policy?
BC
I’m confused, are we talking to RE101, Dolphinbeater, or bigtimeBull????
kettle [128],
Just the same/another disturbed individual. This site is a magnet.
kettle,
You’re the chart guru. If you woke up today, out of a coma, what’s your reaction?
http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?vol=Y&jav=adv&grid=Y&divd=Y&org=stk&sym=SPU9&data=H&code=BSTK&evnt=adv
BC,
Short
Bob,
i like this one.
http://tinyurl.com/lu52fc
back to scrubbing the toilets….
Scammarano resigns
Gary,
congrats!
now, quickly, go buy a house.
JB,
What you have discussed, sales bottoms versus price bottoms;
“Has the housing market hit bottom?”
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2009/07/has-housing-market-hit-bottom.html?ref=patrick.net
BC
Just the same/another disturbed individual. This site is a magnet.
what are you saying about me???
j/k ;)
kettle [125,
Can’t open.
kettle [129],
You’re perceptive.
Gary,
CONGRATS!!!
Now stimulate the economy the right way and get a fat bonus followed by a spending spree on hookers and blow!
Bob,
http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?jav=adv&vol=Y&grid=Y&divd=Y&org=stk&sym=SPU9&data=E&code=BSTK&evnt=adv
Boy a lot of these boys are going to be out of office next year
“I had felt they would be pointless,” Rep. Tim Bishop (D-N.Y.) told POLITICO, referring to his recent decision to temporarily suspend the events in his Long Island district. “There is no point in meeting with my constituents and [to] listen to them and have them listen to you if what is basically an unruly mob prevents you from having an intelligent conversation.
dude no offense the screaming mob is your constituency, your just not listening to them.
full article for those interested
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20090731/pl_politico/25646
Gary,
Congrats!
I was getting worried about you, with all the pill and booze references. Hope you were kidding.
Gary - Stu says ‘Thank God. I was sick of paying for your lazy @ss.’
We’re on the GSP headed down to Atlantic City so I can cook with Tom Colicchio. Have a great weekend y’all.
CHRIS DODD UPDATE: Democrat resists subpoenaing VIP mortgage records. “House Democrats have declined to subpoena available records that might reveal whether other members of Congress got discounted VIP mortgages from subprime lender Countrywide Financial Corp. similar to the sweetheart deals given Democratic Sens. Chris Dodd and Kent Conrad.”
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D99OUTF03&show_article=1
Hey wall street people - did anyone see a body (passed out or dead) in his underwear lying on the wall street bull in the last 30 mins?
a guy took a camera-phone pic and set it to me. photo is blurry.
can’t tell if this is fake or not, figured i’d ask the peanut gallery here
Comrade NdP; Pain;
Lots of Germans can’t stand Bayern. They’re sort of like the Yankees, they’ve won the Bundesligia title often enough to elicit that sort of rich football club envy. Locally the Hoffenheim club (the former CEO and founder of SAP built them a stadium in Sinsheim) is the David among the Goliaths.
yikes,
Is he long the dollar? If yes, probably passed out and dead.
Yikes: Wife not driving and cats that won’t tolerate city living make finding a hometown where everybody can be happy difficult. If it were up to me I would pick a nice village somewhere in Italy to spend the rest of my life drinking vino and grappa.
actually, now the guy who sent the picture of the dude in his underwear on the bull was taken at 530 am.
he swears it is real
Gator
How are you cooking with Tom Colicchio? And I thought you guys weren’t going to see DM? How can you be down there and not see the show?
[143],
LOL! After today’s currency/metal action, I may be doing cartwheels, in my wears, from the cemetery to the river.
lost [143],
My reply was to the disturbed individual. Puff, magic, he’s gone. He turns to dust and receives a margin call.
JB,
New career. Head of margins or risk management.
#145 - We all knew John was disturbed.
i guess the photo is making the rounds, just got it from two other friends. nobody’s really sure if it is real or fake.
And I thought it was 50.5.
50.5,
My bad. I owe you one.
BC, at least 50.5 is entertaining.
BC 145
Hi BTW.
I am so confused right now. My comment was for Gator. That troll comment was deleted?
lostinny says:
July 31, 2009 at 12:05 pm
Gator How are you cooking with Tom Colicchio? And I thought you guys weren’t going to see DM? How can you be down there and not see the show?
lost: at CitiField for the first time last night….walked back from the right field foul pole to the promenade and right in the southeast corner of the stadium is a gap in the stands….so I looked out and the 7-train was right there, but in the distance was a wonderful sight to behold…the Universe lit up in all its glory……
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Flushing_Meadows_Globe.jpg
ChiFi and other DM fans-
Is anyone meeting up before the shows at MSG next week?
Lost [151],
Yes, at that time the post, #143 was from the crackbrained pencil pusher. JB threw a fastball at his head, he crawled back to the dugout.
Hey, I understand, it’s Friday. His weekend is full of yes dear’s and honey do’s. His goomba buddies, changing 3 times; beach, happy hour and nightclub? Just a fantasy. He’s whipped.
I want to thank all of you taxpayers.
Not only did I get to enjoy CitiField last night for the first time (Mets lost FCUK!), but I was there courtesy of Citigroup. We were in one of the Sterling Suites behind home plate. Pretty nice.
Three comments: (1) great park and a nice place to visit; (2) definite change in the attendees, more upscale looking, more packs of girls walking around, more young couples; (3) who gives a sh!t…NYC doesn’t need a new stadium…Shea was fine….seriously…I’m there to watch baseball, and I’d rather have as many diehards as possible…no more…
154 BC
I am sure you’re right. Well I’m off to my honey do list. Nothing I like better then shopping in a storm.
155 ChiFi
You’re welcome.
One of the guys there was from Greenville, SC. He is best buddies with the owner of the Dunkin Dounts franchise group that went bankrupt down there. He said the guy got totally fcuked. It wasn’t just the Greenville area franchises that smoked those guys. Allied Domecq force him to buys large groups of outlets and saturate areas. In order to get Greenville, he also had to build out 70 locations in Las Vegas. The Vegas locations ended up only partially built, and he needed grosses of $25K a day to cover his payments. The outlets were only pulling $9K, then they pulled his credit lines…..they railroaded him.
Lost - ac food and wine festival. check it out.
Chi [155],
Haven’t been there but agree, based on Yankee Stad. Shove the champagne, caviar, sushi, etc.. Give me a hot dog and a beer, sit me with the lunatics.
Let the glamorous stroke each other in the Hampton’s.
AC food and wine festival should be comped only…
BC Bob says:
July 31, 2009 at 12:37 pm
Chi [155],Haven’t been there but agree, based on Yankee Stad. Shove the champagne, caviar, sushi, etc.. Give me a hot dog and a beer, sit me with the lunatics.
Bost: At my stage in life and career where I need to make contacts and my kids are young, it is fine. However, if I was in my 20’s or maybe ten years from now, I don’t want all of this crap. I want to cuss my a%% off, drink a lot, discuss strategy and play baseball roulette….
I was talking last night about how the Rockies has Tulowitski batting clean-up. I was thinking when was the last time a team had a shortstop as a clean-up hitter. Texas A-Rod? I thought it was a cool thing….everyone gives me blank looks…sucks…
Housing Bottom? No, the Mother of All Head Fakes
Housing bears immediately tried to poke holes in the surprisingly good numbers in the May Case Shiller report.
The most widespread bear argument, that the rise was just seasonal, is weak: Even the seasonally adjusted numbers were the best in three years.
Two other arguments, however, are more persuasive.
Whitney Tilson of T2 Partners calls the May numbers “the mother of all head fakes.” He–and the two analysts below–think house prices will resume their decline in the fall. We’re in that camp, too…
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/293365/Housing-Bottom-No-the-Mother-of-All-Head-Fakes?tickers=%5Edji,%5Egspc,hd,l,len&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
161 Chifi - it is, partially. We’re going to the grand market and expo for free and getting a few free bottles of wine. The other events cost $$$ (part of it going to the Komen Foundation). Stu’s got a crap host from Harrah’s - he says their are going bankrupt and their customer service is just like United Airlines now.
WASHINGTON - Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., has been diagnosed with an early stage of prostate cancer and intends to have surgery early in August, his office said Friday.
Dodd plans to be back at work when Congress reconvenes in September, according to an e-mail his office circulated to fellow senators. The AP obtained a copy.
According to NBC News, the cancer was detected from a routine test and was caught at an early stage. Dodd will reportedly have surgery during the August recess.
Aides also said the diagnosis would not affect Dodd’s plans to seek a sixth term in 2010.
Dodd planned to announce the diagnosis at a news conference in Hartford, Conn., Friday afternoon.
Dodd, 65, is chairman of the Senate Banking Committee and also is playing a lead role in Congress’ overhaul of the nation’s health care system.
He took that role while his close friend, Senate health committee Chairman Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., fights his own battle with brain cancer.
Prostate cancer is the most common form of the disease in men in the United States, affecting about 6.4 out of every 100 men in Dodd’s age group, according to the Centers for Disease Control.
The e-mail said that he is expected to make a full recovery.
Dodd is married to the former Jackie Clegg. They have two young daughters. NBC’s Ken Strickland contributed to this report.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32237475/ns/politics-capitol_hill/
Bernanke didn’t spend his life studying the Great Depression. He spent his life studying half of it. If you asked Ben Bernanke when the first year of recorded human history was, he would probably tell you it was 1929.
ChiFi and BC Bob
This is just one of the reasons I don’t go to many games in the majors anymore. If it wasn’t for going with my FIL (great old school NY sports guy), I probably couldn’t stomach more than 2 innings. I’d rather see a game in the minors these days and watch the majors on TV.
Mets with a JJ twist…
Bloomberg
Posted: 1:32 am
July 31, 2009
Municipal bonds sold to finance the New York Mets’ Citi Field may be cut by Standard & Poor’s after the company that insures the debt service reserve fund was cut yesterday below investment grade to junk status.
Almost $700 million of Queens Ballpark bonds issued through the New York City Industrial Development Agency in 2006 and 2009 were placed on watch for possible reduction from BBB, the second-lowest investment grade, S&P said in a news release.
Ambac Assurance Corp., which provided a surety policy for the 2006 bonds, was reduced to CC, the third-lowest non-investment grade, from BBB by the rating company on Tuesday.
Queens Ballpark bonds issued in 2006 have been under review for downgrade at Moody’s Investors Service since May after Ambac was dropped to high-yield, high-risk junk.
CHEVRON today posted a 79% decline in earnings. Prepping the way for a “bailout” perhaps ??
If Oil Companies get one red cent in handouts….will that be the trigger to open revolt?
In related news, Sen Chris Dodd is diagnosed with prostate cancer. Covering over the fact that his VIP Mortgage details will not be soon released.
Maybe they will find Angelo Mozillo hiding up Dodd’s rear when and if they perform the seed implantaion therapy. buffoons all of them. I really want to start a don’t vote incumbent, dem or repub internet campaign for the next election cycle or just say no like Brewster’s Millions. I know it won’t work but it will make me feel better.
163: Tejada? Guillen 3-5th? Hanley 3-5th?
Uggla as 2B?
Small group indeed.
[139] DL
Thanks for that. Since Bayern is like the Yankees, I suppose that Bayern jerseys will be banned in my house as well.
Don’t think the new au pair will like that.
[170] fiddy
After the dems nationalize health care (and single payer is nationalization), the oil refiners are next.
Bernanke didn’t spend his life studying the Great Depression. He spent his life studying half of it. If you asked Ben Bernanke when the first year of recorded human history was, he would probably tell you it was 1929.
Have you read Rainbow’s End? The first few chapters chronicle the time leading up to the crash. Really is interesting to parallel the excesses and mania of roaring 20’s with the roaring 00’s (can be pronounced uh-ohs, if you don’t like oh-ohs).
JB auts is the standard for nomenclature starting with a 0.
Like I aught not have signed that mortgage in aut five.
Honey get my aut six I have to take out the mortgage originator.
I was making millions selling homes in aut four but was eating Ramen noodles by aut nine
JB auts is the standard for nomenclature starting with a 0.
Hmm, so then “00″ would actually be pronounced aught-ohs after all.
pretty much
Congrats Green Shoots Gary. TARP Gary (financial firm)? Stimulus Gary? Cars for Clunkers Gary?
http://www.tallahassee.com/article/A4/20090730/BUSINESS/90730073/1003
“The wife of a firefighter who’s the only resident of a luxury Fort Myers skyscraper has problems of her own back in Weehawken, N.J.
Cathleen Vangelakos is facing a possible 10-year sentence for official misconduct and embezzlement if convicted on charges that as municipal court violations clerk she stole about $500 in money people paid for tickets.”
98: so Nom, basically, you had to pay your friends to hang out w/ you? kidding.
when mets bonds get downgraded it will be a good buying opp as a lot of muni bond funds can’t hold junk. I am all in if the yield tops 6.5%.
Corruption in Hudson? Say it ain’t so!
There needs to be an offshoot blog similar to the Today Show’s Where’s Matt Lauer? segemnt: Where are stu and gator?
John,
The instructor let your sorry ass leave the corner of the room?
John’s Labor Day bbq;
*The U.S. economy has now contracted four quarters in a row, the worst streak since the Great Depression
*GDP has contracted 3.9% in the last year, the worst fall since at least 1947, when the Commerce Department started keeping track
*First quarter GDP was revised down heavily, from a 5.5% to 6.4% — the biggest quarterly GDP drop in almost 30 years
*The Commerce Department revised 2008 down too, from a 0.4% annual contraction to a 1% decline
*Consumer spending, 70% of U.S. GDP, contracted 1.2%. The retrenchment was largely replaced by government spending, up 10.9%
*Employment compensation rose by just 1.8% over the last 12 months, the slowest rate on books that go back to 1982.
BC Bob, if Gary can find a job the recession must be over, heck when you are named after spongebob’s snail and you can find a job this quick that is a got job market.
Plus everything you are talking about is history. Watch the July Car Sales and Home sales. The recession is over. Been over since May, they will have to re-adjust their numbers to reflect my end of May prediction.
I lead I don’t follow.
BC Bob says:
July 31, 2009 at 1:53 pm
John,
The instructor let your sorry ass leave the corner of the room?
DL (63)-
Coaches the world over pull this move to cover their language deficiencies.
Joe Kinnear at Newcastle- an English speaker- actually pulls this in English press conferences when he takes a new job, just to scare the crap out of reporters and ensure they never again ask him another question.
See if you can find a YouTube of his first PC at Newcastle. It’s a f-bomb filled classic.
FASB to reinstate mark-to-market?
“Watch the July Car Sales”
Congrats, the sheeple lined up for free money. What occurs once bribery is off the table? Watch the Oct repossession #’s.
Tax-exempt bonds issued in 2006 to fund the baseball stadium, which opened in the borough of Queens this season, and set to pay 4.75 percent until maturity in 2042 traded at 79.9 cents on the dollar earlier today to yield 6.19
J [187],
Not sure what you are talking about. My ass is in the same seat?
“I lead I don’t follow.”
As does BIG-TIME-BULL. LOL.
Those new car sales are mainly sales not leases, also they were mostly lower priced american cars, finally dealers were taken 3,500 or 4,500 check as downpayent. So a brand new 2009 Ford Focus that costs around 12K went out the door for 9.5K. The loan is so small default risk is low plus owner is walking away from equity. It was those $500 down 50K Yukon Denalli leases that killed them. This is all gravy baby. You and I own GM so we should all be smiles today.
J [195],
Problem. How do you retrain Pavlov’s dog?
Just another short term gimmick. What the hey, we are experts in this field.
“Tax-exempt bonds issued in 2006 to fund the baseball stadium, which opened in the borough of Queens this season, and set to pay 4.75 percent until maturity in 2042 traded at 79.9 cents on the dollar earlier today to yield 6.19″
I won’t feel sorry for the person that decides to hold that bond until maturity. These things are a hot potato and whoever is holding the bag when the music stops will be the loser.
180: She’s considered an honest muni employee in NJ. Bet she’s up for ee of the month.
“Have you read Rainbow’s End? The first few chapters chronicle the time leading up to the crash. Really is interesting to parallel the excesses and mania of roaring 20’s with the roaring 00’s (can be pronounced uh-ohs, if you don’t like oh-ohs).”
Grim haven’t read it…but I am baffled as to why the general public seems to fail to make the parallel. Credit expansion, bubble, bust. Somehow, historians managed to rewrite the 30s.
A short memory and hopium are a potent coc*tail.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124904648918696861.html
11% increase in gubmint spending and they still couldn’t get a positive # :)
Have you read Rainbow’s End
You may want to try True Names and Other Dangers as well. Different subject same author. Surprisingly prophetic.
From a well-known CIO:
As a general observation, I find the loudest voices arguing for a lot more risk right now among those who (a)
do not carry fiduciary responsibility for investing other people’s money, (b) cannot provide any evidence at all of
having anticipated or prepared for the 2007-2008 credit/equity market collapse, or (c) usually both.
They won’t go under, they are PILOTS, payments in lieu of taxes, the mets re taxes go directly to bondholders and stadium is collateral. That said they can be very iluiqid if you don’t hold to maturity. However, once the downgrade comes that is all baked into the cake. Remember the taxable equivalent rate on that is almost 11%. Big deal if you get stuck holding a bond with that yield if you are a retiree, it is your heirs problem selling you just care about current yield.
Ben says:
July 31, 2009 at 2:27 pm
“Tax-exempt bonds issued in 2006 to fund the baseball stadium, which opened in the borough of Queens this season, and set to pay 4.75 percent until maturity in 2042 traded at 79.9 cents on the dollar earlier today to yield 6.19″
I won’t feel sorry for the person that decides to hold that bond until maturity. These things are a hot potato and whoever is holding the bag when the music stops will be the loser.
Was looking at Frank’s deals closed in Hoboken. The market is definitely on fire..a fire sale that is!
Apartment in Hudson Tea building sold for
$484/ sq ft.!! $124,980 below list.
Apartment in the brand new Garden Street Lofts went for $113,500 less than the list and clocked in at $460/sq ft.
[181] relo
Yeah. when they graduated college, instead of saying “thanks mom and dad” for the tuition, they said “thanks nom.”
Albani:
the end is nigh…..
http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/main/news/21397/
Good article today in the Personal section of the WSJ on a new raft of apocalyptic movies coming out.
I think the Hollywood writers follow this board.
WASHINGTON — The House rushed Friday to pump $2 billion into a popular cash-for-clunkers program running near empty, with a leading Democrat saying “consumers have spoken with their wallets
http://www.newsmax.com//newsfront/us_cash_for_clunkers/2009/07/31/242392.html
WASHINGTON — The House rushed Friday to pump $2 billion into a popular cash-for-clunkers program running near empty, with a leading Democrat saying “consumers have spoken with their wallets
Bank Failure Friday preview!
(I came very close to having my fingerprints on the spinoff of this debacle).
“NEW YORK (Fortune) — Guaranty Bank is hardly a household name. But the Austin, Texas-based thrift’s looming failure is shaping up as a big headache for bank supervisors — not to mention a black eye for Carl Icahn and others in the smart money set.
Guaranty (GFG) could be soon seized by the government in what would be the biggest bank failure in a year that has already had 64 of them. Last week, the bank warned investors to expect a federal takeover after regulators forced a writedown of its risky mortgage investments and a bid to raise new capital failed. . . .”
Too big — it won’t be shut down today.
159 Gator
I think I’m going to go to the one at Javits.
WASHINGTON — The House rushed Friday to pump $2 billion into a popular cash-for-clunkers program running near empty, with a leading Democrat saying “consumers have spoken with their wallets
http://moneynews.newsmax.com/headlines/warren_buffett/2009/07/31/242531.html
196 BC
Give him better treats.
NEW YORK — Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc has realized a $1.02 billion paper profit on a 10-month-old investment in BYD Co after shares in the Chinese car and battery maker quintupled.
Berkshire’s MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co unit had agreed last September 26 to buy 225 million BYD shares at HK$8 each, a transaction then worth about $230 million.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission on Thursday granted approval for the transaction, which gives Berkshire a 9.89 percent stake. BYD shares closed Friday at HK$42.90, valuing Berkshire’s stake at HK$9.65 billion, or about $1.25 billion.
http://moneynews.newsmax.com/headlines/warren_buffett/2009/07/31/242531.html
PGC (71)-
Except for at Ipswich. Saved them from relegation & pretty much fielded 11 bums every week for the first two seasons.
SG (77)-
Acceptance. Desperate acceptance.
lostinny says:
July 31, 2009 at 3:27 pm
159 Gator I think I’m going to go to the one at Javits.
DM is playing the Javits center?
Back in 1992 I got a fully renovated sponsor unit for 27K that was 1,000 square feet. That is 27 dollar a square feet, 460 is madness.
tdstyles says:
July 31, 2009 at 3:06 pm
Was looking at Frank’s deals closed in Hoboken. The market is definitely on fire..a fire sale that is!
Apartment in Hudson Tea building sold for
$484/ sq ft.!! $124,980 below list.
Apartment in the brand new Garden Street Lofts went for $113,500 less than the list and clocked in at $460/sq ft.
No I am going in a time travel machine to back when Dinkins was mayor to enjoy the ladies.
chicagofinance says:
July 31, 2009 at 3:37 pm
lostinny says:
July 31, 2009 at 3:27 pm
159 Gator I think I’m going to go to the one at Javits.
DM is playing the Javits center?
218
Yup. He’s heading up the vegetarian only section.
I meant Martin is heading it up. I think I should have a drink.
Ben (167)-
Bernanke’s spending this part of his life creating the Second Great Depression.
“Bernanke didn’t spend his life studying the Great Depression. He spent his life studying half of it.”
Anybody looking for a different shoe to drop? Well, TIC Data indicates that capital continues to trickle out of the US. Guess there are unintended consequences when rule of law is abandoned, contracts are abrogated and fiscal prudence is laid to rest.
If this picks up momentum, it may take time?, there will be upheaval in the currency markets. All markets are intertwined. It’s possible, we may wake to an interesting morn somewhere down the line?
223
I wonder when they’ll admit that this actually is a depression.
MIAMI — The United States and Swiss bank UBS AG said on Friday they had agreed to settle a dispute over tax evasion and bank secrecy, heading off a showdown that had threatened relations between the two countries.
The United States had insisted that Switzerland’s best-known bank reveal the names of thousands of wealthy Americans suspected of using UBS to evade taxes. The Swiss government had fiercely resisted what it portrayed as an assault on its sovereign bank secrecy laws
http://moneynews.newsmax.com/companies/ubs/2009/07/31/242546.html
They admitted to depression today.
Cumulative GDP contraction is well past the 10% benchmark.
Soup lines are next.
Before the crisis, the Fed’s balance sheet was around 6% of US GDP. Right now, it is around 15% of US GDP. A big increase no doubt. But the balance sheet of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is around 70% of China’s GDP. Foreign assets make up about 80% of the PBoC’s balance sheet — or around 55% of China’s GDP. And the PBoC’s estimated holdings of US treasuries and agencies are about equal to 30% of China’s GDP — a level that is far higher, relative to China’s GDP, than the US Fed is ever likely to achieve. The Fed expects its balance sheet to peak at roughly $2.5 trillion, or between 15% and 20% of US GDP
http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/07/29/pot-calling-kettle-black/
They admitted to depression today.
Cumulative GDP contraction is well past the 10% benchmark
That gives the Fed’s more power to stimulate the economy.no?
227 Veto
Until its in the headlines, the general population will not know as they don’t understand what the implications are of “Cumulative GDP contraction is well past the 10% benchmark”. They don’t even understand what that means.
Lost [230],
90%, probably too conservative, could not tell you what GDP stands for.
July 31 (Bloomberg) — Lone Star Funds founder John Grayken is securing pledges toward his goal of raising $20 billion to invest in distressed commercial real estate and securities, according to two people familiar with the matter.
Grayken may garner as much as $2 billion by the end of August, said one person, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. Dallas-based Lone Star last year raised $10 billion to buy real estate assets.
Lone Star is doubling the size of its funds as the deepening crisis in commercial real estate increases opportunities to buy at discounts. U.S. commercial property prices fell 35 percent from their peak through May 31, Moody’s Investors Service said last week. Falling rents and occupancies will accelerate defaults and delinquencies in mortgages sold as bonds, pushing the rate of late payments to the highest since at least 1991, Reis Inc. said yesterday.
Each of the new vehicles will have about $10 billion, the people said. Lone Star Fund VII will invest in distressed financial institutions, collateralized debt obligations, residential mortgage-backed securities, corporate debt and consumer loans, according to one person
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a7QCWBdLwFOE
numbers shlumbers, go to Stone Street at Lunch time or Harrys or Bobby Vans for a Thursday night happy hour next week, this is august vacation time and we have triple the crowd from back in April. Heck go to a car dealer or open house. The cash on the sidelines is comng out to play.
BC back in your day it was GNP.
BC Bob says:
July 31, 2009 at 3:59 pm
Lost [230],
90%, probably too conservative, could not tell you what GDP stands for.
231 BC
Agreed. And too busy watching AI to look it up.
Lost, you want to see mass chaos…
yeah have craemer and maria bartilomo go around shouting the great D word into people’s living rooms and you will see an entire continent collapse to their knees.
The word Depression will be nowhere near any headlines until this thing is over and we are looking back on it.
they’ll continue calling it a great recession and crisis…
“numbers shlumbers”
J,
Simply, classic. From a WS numbers cruncher.
233: J,
In addition to the others you’ve mentioned, were you on the Enron audit team, by chance?
J,
Great entertainment today, on a slow summer Friday.
Have a great weekend.
Cashed out of that Ford stock today.
That thing shot up almost 65% in a couple months.
May be the best trade of my life.
I dont talk about the money i lost on srs and sds though.
236 Veto
Just like they didn’t call recession until we were a year in? Or was it more then that?
Be the Stock, Be the Bond!!!! I am dong a lot of Karate Kid Investing lately. I actually was on one foot kicking with a bandana on when I decided to buy ford bonds at 20, Unisys at 35 and HIG at 49. I also channel the Vegas Double Down approach.
The strategy is simple for stocks, 50% of your stocks are winners and 50% of your stocks are loses. Sell the losers and buy more winners. For bonds, use the it is always darkest before dawn approach or as the plate on my SL reads, 2BIG2FAIL. Wait, wait wait wait and then right when it seems it is going down like a seahag and all hope is lost you jump in and wait for the bailout. Someone that magic numbers for bonds is 50 cents on a dollar for FS, well at least for Citi and HIG and for autos you need to wait for single digits. Oh I love a strategy that works. Remember, it works till it don’t work no more.
Bridgewater Councilman Scaglione sues township for the drainage easement in his property. Says township owes him a new house. Also wants your vote as the new Freeholder in Somerset County.
http://tinyurl.com/ScaglioneSuesBridgewater
You the man, sold my one bond yesterday at a 285% gain. Will sell more Ford Bonds on Monday, what are you rollin into to? I got out of Ford at 73 and bought MI and FITB bonds at 70. Heck a CCC junk bond is going for more than some investment grade bonds you know the koolaid is being passed around.
The other ones I am holding are XL and HIG, those are real poppers.
veto that says:
July 31, 2009 at 4:05 pm
Cashed out of that Ford stock today.
That thing shot up almost 65% in a couple months.
May be the best trade of my life.
I dont talk about the money i lost on srs and sds though.
[224] BC
“TIC Data indicates that capital continues to trickle out of the US. Guess there are unintended consequences when rule of law is abandoned, contracts are abrogated and fiscal prudence is laid to rest.”
Did we not predict that on this Board? Damn, we are good!
[226] yome
Read that story in conjuction with the IRS latest release concerning its voluntary disclosure program.
They basically released the questions that Criminal Investigation Division will ask when you make a disclosure, and the questions suggest that they will get the disclosing taxpayers to dime out their banks and advisers, which will lead to subpoenas and investigations, which will lead to more noncompliant taxpayers.
If I had offshore accounts right now, I’d be worried unless I knew that no one subject to US jurisdiction knew about them.
Nom [245],
Nobody is paying attention. A serious problem going forward. All we can do is prepare.
Say it ain’t so. Maybe a X-Mas present? Is John leading the charge?
“The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) is in the process of making banks very unhappy. In a complete reversal from their revised policy released in April, it is considering vastly tightening mark-to-market requirements to include virtually all securities on a bank’s balance sheet. Yes, it even wants the very, very illiquid stuff marked-to-market.”
http://business.theatlantic.com/2009/07/mark-to-market_is_back_–_with_a_vengeance.php
On a different topic, I was watching HGTV’s “Real Estate Intervention” last night. It’s the same old story there–buyers who want too much for their property, had an interest only loan, no money down, etc. Mike Aubrey said, “Ask your parents how they bought their house.” He went on to say, what I’ve long known, that you’re supposed to save 20%, get a loan for 80% etc. We’re experiencing the backlash of people living beyond their means, easy credit, etc.
Yes, I know this to be true. My question is, then, shouldn’t house prices be MUCH lower, considering the near impossibility of saving 20%, even for people making well over the median income? Am I just old fashioned, or should we go back to the old ways and therefore lower prices?!
Grim, I liked the price history you posted today on the colonial clapboard house.
CARTOON OF THE DAY!!!!!!!!!!111
I had a different one in mind, and will link it next, but THIS IS GREAT
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/cartoons/20090727_ink_tank?pg=19
[247] bc
No one outside this board anyway.
In any event, this cartoon is for you. Enjoy!
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/cartoons/20090727_ink_tank?pg=6
Lost - When is the fest at the Javits Center?
Here’s the kid on the Bull in his underwear:
http://dealbreaker.com/2009/07/caption-contest-friday-wtf.php
http://theburningplatform.com/groups/quinns-daily-dose-of-reality/discussions/does-the-fasb-have-the-balls
Tosh - #190/ BC - #248 - Trying to find other takes on the FASB position.
I remember when the Jonathan Weil article was posted here.
Also - BC - I was trying to find out more about the TIC data/ capital continuing to leave the country and I hit on the Brad Setzer blog for a few articles. (Also some related info re: imports/exports etc.)
Are you following government charts or????
238.relo says:
July 31, 2009 at 4:04 pm
233: J, In addition to the others you’ve mentioned, were you on the Enron audit team, by chance?
My claim check is supposed to be posted today. I assume I will have it by next week, since it is being sent from Petaluma CA. I will report the final % recovery…..
252 Gator
I don’t know when it is. I’ll have to ask my brother and get back to you.
Doyle @253 - That pic doesn’t look real.
RE: “You and I own GM so we should all be smiles today.”
And if they bought Hondas and Toyotas?
Cindy: Yeah, I have no clue. Just heard people mentioning it and that was sent to me so I posted it.
#253 - Thanks for the link Cindy. I doubt we’ll see the change either. Honesty would be nice though.
Why is Chris Dodd’s *sshole front page news????
I’m thinking FASB was “encouraged” by TPTB. If, absent this, banks aren’t incented to move reo inventory and thereby recognize losses, maybe this designed to be an impetus?
Breaking!!!
First BankAmericano
Elizabeth, N.J.
BFF!
From the FDIC:
Bank Closing Information - July 31, 2009
First BankAmericano, Elizabeth, NJ
Peoples Community Bank, West Chester, OH
Integrity Bank, Jupiter, FL
First State Bank of Altus, Altus, OK
From the FDIC:
Crown Bank, Brick, New Jersey, Assumes All of The Deposits of First Bankamericano, Elizabeth, New Jersey
First BankAmericano, Elizabeth, New Jersey, was closed today by the New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with Crown Bank, Brick, New Jersey, to assume all of the deposits of First BankAmericano.
First BankAmericano’s six branches will reopen on Saturday as branches of Crown Bank. Depositors of First BankAmericano will automatically become depositors of Crown Bank. Deposits will continue to be insured by the FDIC, so there is no need for customers to change their banking relationship to retain their deposit insurance coverage. Customers should continue to use their existing branches until Crown Bank can fully integrate the deposit records of First BankAmericano.
Over the weekend, depositors of First BankAmericano can access their money by writing checks or using ATM or debit cards. Checks drawn on the bank will continue to be processed. Loan customers should continue to make their payments as usual.
As of July 16, 2009, First BankAmericano had total assets of $166 million and total deposits of approximately $157 million. In addition to assuming all of the deposits of the failed bank, Crown Bank agreed to purchase essentially all of the assets.
Customers who have questions about today’s transaction can call the FDIC toll-free at 1-866-954-9532. The phone number will be operational this evening until 9:00 p.m., Eastern Daylight Time (EDT); on Friday and Saturday from 9:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m., EDT; on Sunday from noon to 6:00 p.m., EDT; and thereafter from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m., EDT. Interested parties can also visit the FDIC’s Web site at http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/americano.html.
The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $15 million. Crown Bank’s acquisition of all the deposits was the “least costly” resolution for the FDIC’s DIF compared to alternatives. First BankAmericano is the 68th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the second in New Jersey. The last FDIC-insured institution to be closed in the state was Citizens Community Bank, Ridgewood, May 1, 2009.
#216 Clot
“fielded 11 bums every week for the first two seasons.”
That defines Jock Stein at Celtic.
While I hate to say it Fergies time at Aberdeen matches Robson at Ipswich
Absolute steal of a bank owned home in stunning, wealthy, recession immune Tewksbury. Almost 3 acres, traditional Colonial, and a quiet road that goes nowhere so no traffic. This is why people move out here! Okay so there are power lines practically over the house. A small price to pay to live in paradise.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Tewksbury-Twp_NJ_08833_1111430883
Senator Raymond J Lesniak (D-Elizabeth) is on the board of First BankAmericano. Holly Bakke, formerly the Commissioner of the NJ Department of Banking and Insurance, was CEO.
Vice-chair of the board actually.
How does a former Commissioner of the NJDOBI run a bank into the ground? Oh lord, was she appointed by McGreevy.
any bets 2nd qtr GDP gets revised downward in the next report after
we have all forgotten or don’t care
about the 2nd qtr ?
Lesniak was also a big force behind the New Jersey Economic Stimulus Act of 2009.
Grim 273 - and a big force behind McGreevey as well.
2 houses in our neighborhood went on the market about 2 weeks ago. both are sold (but not closed).
realtor is trying to get sale prices, but no luck yet.
wife thinks this means our neighborhood is desirable (it’s in BUcks County), i’m waiting to find out the sale price before drawing a conclusion.
that’s 4 sales in our neighborhood this year, and only 1 of the three stayed on the market more than 3 weeks.
priced right?
people with money?
market recovery? LMAO
274.NJGator says:
July 31, 2009 at 7:14 pm
Grim 273 - and a big force behind McGreevey as well.
is this John ghost writing?
Reach out….
Q: That brings us to Atlantic City. The last time you performed at The Borgata, it was an energetic, fast-paced set. Do you remember the show three years ago and did you have a good time in AC?
A: Yes, I remember the show and what I did later. When I come back, I have to play blackjack again. The reason is that I had my biggest win ever when we played The Borgata. I had an amazing run of luck. I thought that they were letting me win because I was the artist that just played their casino.
Q: But it doesn’t work like that.
A: I know it. I was just fortunate.
Q: How much did you win?
A: Let’s just say that it wasn’t a sum that would put me in the big league of gamblers, but it was good for me and I’ll be back at the blackjack table.
277 ChiFi
I just read that interview. Now I’m really pissed I’m not going to the AC show.
BC (248)-
To paraphrase Chuck Prince, it’s hard to keep dancing when your feet are nailed to the floor.
Sounds like it may be time to get shorty.
278.lostinny says:
July 31, 2009 at 8:58 pm
277 ChiFi
I just read that interview. Now I’m really pissed I’m not going to the AC show.
lost: everything counts in large amounts
PGC (267)-
No argument with either Stein or SAF. Both great coaches who made their bones by winning big with flat-out lousy players.
I’d still rate Robson over them, because Stein and SAF never spun off a protege like Mourinho (Robson’s right-hand man when he was at Porto).
Yikes[275],
1)Sea of wealth?
2)Seismic shift, closer to NYC?
3)Foreigners, flush, taking advantage of a crippled dollar?
4)It’s diffferent here?
Gator (274)-
McGreevey is used to having a big force behind him.
Sorry, couldn’t resist…
different
BC (282)-
5) Brother, can you spare a dime?
pol clot:
starting at minute 0:45, I located some footage of one of your daughter’s football matches against Brigadoon…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxeD9K1EUxU
That video is damn funny. Yo.
re 120 Kettle1: life insurance medical exam:
Yes, medical tests are generally required for all individual policies worth buying. Think of how much they would charge if the company didn’t require medical exams - they would attract a higher percentage of people with lower life expectancy and need to charge everyone for it.
If you are part of a group, or association, then medicals are waived up to a certain amount of coverage, but doctors notes and health disclosures are usually required.
Email me if you’d like any other help…
Anecdata from AC - just one word to describe the casinos on this Summer Friday night - DEAD. Looking for your recession Frank? It’s right here.
On a happier note, dinner at Mia in Caesar’s was fantastic, I have a great Tom Colicchio recipe to try at home, and the Video Poker slots are loose tonight. Not a bad evening at all.
Noah,
thanks. I have a pre-existing policy that didnt require an exam, but for the supplemental they do. what you said explains that. thanks!
:)
Vix is going up
Hello from kettle land…
http://yfrog.com/1limg0315aj
Oops! From the WaPo:
Regulator Accidentally Names Imperiled Bank
The Office of Thrift Supervision accidentally disclosed Friday night that it considered closing a small Pennsylvania bank — a rare breach of the rigorous silence that banking regulators maintain about the health of individual companies.
The information appeared in an e-mail that the agency sent to reporters announcing the closing of an Ohio bank, Peoples Community. A section crossed out with red lines but still legible said that a second thrift also had been closed. A few minutes later, the OTS issued a retraction.
A spokesman described the incident as “an unfortunate clerical error.”
gnite ;)
http://img53.yfrog.com/i/img0342a.jpg/
Good Night Grandma, Good Night Kettle.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/39818435@N08/3776432617/
nice pic Kettle, have one for me I need it
The stimulus ought to go to projects like this.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/07/31/cow.power/index.html
High ROI (20% annual return) and uses green technology.
#282 Clot
Mourinho is cream who would always float.
Kettle
Where are you?
for those interested in hiking, Kurdistan’s border region with Iran has splendid views and mountains..this would probably be my main choice of hiking destinations too..or maybe the tourists are SAS’s associates on mission?
“SULAIMANIYAH, Iraq – Iran has confirmed it detained three Americans who were in the area of the Iranian border while on a hiking trip, Kurdish officials said Saturday.”
A Tarnished ‘Gold Coast’
Gold Coast RE market is ice cold, but in Hoboken it’s on ¡fuego!.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/02/realestate/02njzo.html?ref=realestate
researching rum swizzles and looking for booya bob.
kettle,
Next spot for a GTG.
Frank,
As has been previously established, you are still an idiot. On fire? Yes, burning to the ground. 585 listed, 87 sold in June. Well below the Mendoza line. How’s that for being hot?
Mall report?
#303
More and more history rhymes…
Jersey’s ‘Gold Coast’ Losing Its Glitter
By THOMAS J. LUECK
Published: March 24, 1991
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D0CE3D61438F937A15750C0A967958260
Mini personality quiz:
Which would you prefer in a country house?
_Fire
http://www.weichert.com/25930470
_Water
http://www.weichert.com/24890507
Grim,
You have mail.
ww4b
307 - hey, that was when I lived in Hoboken. My car was stolen that year and my landlord tried to slam me with a big rent increase (which you cant do in boken). A year or so later we had layoffs at Morgan Stanley–everyone got great severence packages. except me, who, as one of the newer hires with the lowest compensation, got to upgrade to my boss’s job while keeping my own and my current salary (and title). thats also when MS moved to times square because of the blood bath prices of commercial property. They decided to own their own place. and I got to move our dept out of the exxon bldg singlehandedly. good times!
BC (306)-
Frank can’t go near malls anymore.
When he can’t find a Hammacher-Schlemmer, he starts convulsing and crying.
Frank really liked sitting in those vibrating chairs.
They made him feel like a king.
@311 - Speaking of vibrating anything - a few scenes in “The Ugly Truth” had me laughing out loud….
Clotpoll says:
July 30, 2009 at 3:38 pm
John (181)-
Try the clams.
“Roof top Hustler Club…”
bearded?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-94JhLEiN0&feature=fvw
Remember - I am weird - I have this saved in my favorites..
They admitted to depression today.
Cumulative GDP contraction is well past the 10% benchmark
That gives the Fed’s more power to stimulate the economy.no?
“It will take many more months to fully dig ourselves out of a recession - a recession that we’ve now learned was even deeper than anyone thought,” the president said in his weekly radio and Internet address.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32248147/ns/politics-white_house/
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-dirty-dozen-12-most-polluted-beaches-in-the-us-2009-7#zachs-bay-at-jones-beach-state-park-1
12 Most Polluted Beaches in the US - the usual offense - bacteria levels.
#
Comrade Nom Deplume says:
July 30, 2009 at 4:49 pm
[200] DL
Yardley is nice but overpriced and it floods. Frequently.
If you don’t mind paying more and want a Mainline feel at off-ML prices, consider Jenkintown. Want further out Bucks, there is North Wales. Also the Churchville section of Southampton feels quite rural but isn’t.
#
just one guy’s opinion, but north wales FEELS like the boonies. i go out there every 3 weeks to hit up price club/trader joe’s and i dont think i could live out there. there’s that one main strip (dont know the route #) that is always clogged and the backroads are all dark and leafy. too many chain restaurants, too.
but costco ruules!
317 “bacteria levels”
syphilis?
yome:
“They admitted to depression today. ”
Dumb&Dumber managed to turn the recession into depression with all that so$ialist threats and legislation. Eventually, economy will recover (3 years later thanks to dumb&dumber), especially if it seems that all that cap and tax, nationalized health care etc did not happen. Then D&D will take the credit for “saving the economy”. There are still 28% who strongly approve D&D, and with the State Media “information” and ACORN they probably have a decent chance for reelection in 2012. The whole country will be turned into NJ, MI, CA, Venezuela or any other failed so$ialist state.
But now time for beach.
With a debt-to-gross- domestic-product ratio approaching 200 percent, the LDP has taken its pork-barrel ways as far as finances will allow. It can no longer keep out the forces of globalization chipping away at Japan’s competitiveness. It can no longer pave roads that don’t need it and build bridges to nowhere to create jobs.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aUffUxJoGLts
Before the crisis, the Fed’s balance sheet was around 6% of US GDP. Right now, it is around 15% of US GDP. A big increase no doubt. But the balance sheet of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is around 70% of China’s GDP. Foreign assets make up about 80% of the PBoC’s balance sheet — or around 55% of China’s GDP. And the PBoC’s estimated holdings of US treasuries and agencies are about equal to 30% of China’s GDP — a level that is far higher, relative to China’s GDP, than the US Fed is ever likely to achieve. The Fed expects its balance sheet to peak at roughly $2.5 trillion, or between 15% and 20% of US GDP
http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/07/29/pot-calling-kettle-black
With a debt-to-gross- domestic-product ratio approaching 200 percent, the LDP has taken its pork-barrel ways as far as finances will allow. It can no longer keep out the forces of globalization chipping away at Japan’s competitiveness. It can no longer pave roads that don’t need it and build bridges to nowhere to create jobs
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aUffUxJoGLts
Before the crisis, the Fed’s balance sheet was around 6% of US GDP. Right now, it is around 15% of US GDP. A big increase no doubt. But the balance sheet of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is around 70% of China’s GDP. Foreign assets make up about 80% of the PBoC’s balance sheet — or around 55% of China’s GDP. And the PBoC’s estimated holdings of US treasuries and agencies are about equal to 30% of China’s GDP — a level that is far higher, relative to China’s GDP, than the US Fed is ever likely to achieve. The Fed expects its balance sheet to peak at roughly $2.5 trillion, or between 15% and 20% of US GDP
booya….
http://www.nypost.com/seven/08012009/postopinion/opedcolumnists/why_everything_sucks_182513.htm
Here is an interesting article in the NY Times that BO can’t fund his health care program just by taxing those making $250,000 or more.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/01/us/politics/01taxes.html?ref=us
I believe he said that 95% of Americans won’t see their taxes increase by a single dime. That is not going to be the case. This clown is going to ruin us, meanwhile he makes a big photo op out of his Beer Summit after stepping on it with the arrested Harvard professor.
Japan Debt/GDP= 200%
China Debt /GDP= 75%
USA Debt/GDP= 20%
What is the difference?
Chicago - youth?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-globe-is-rapidly-becoming-geezer-central-2009-07-27?link=kiosk
“In just 32 years, roughly on generation, the proportion of older people will double from 7% to 14% of the total world population.”
Regulator Accidentally Names Imperiled Bank
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/31/AR2009073103915.html
Anyone have the scoop on this bank? I’m in a PA regional who just reported a loss due to writedowns.
http://www.bizjournals.com/pittsburgh/stories/2009/07/27/daily3.html
Regulator Accidentally Names Imperiled Bank
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/31/AR2009073103915.html
Anyone have the scoop on this bank? I’m in a PA regional who just reported a loss due to writedowns.
Bank details http://www.bizjournals.com/pittsburgh/stories/2009/07/27/daily3.html
“roughly ON generation, should read roughly ONE generation..
The number of people worldwide 65 and older is estimated to rise to 1.3 billion by 2040.
Man - time to start up a home health care business - or something. There must be some financial implications to that stat….
http://www.reuters.com/article/americasDealsNews/idUSTRE56U3E620090731
FDIC tests toxic assets sale program
A few years ago ,it was Population Explosion the world is worried about.
People did family planning.
Now it’s Senior explosion people are doing aging population planning.
That is easy,open the borders to illegal cheap 3rd world labor.Stay home senior sitter.
If a professional educated person makes 50,0000 pesos equivalent to $1,0000 US dollars.The illegal will be happy at $700.00 US dollars free room and board.
Just my penney
OK - my mother-in-law will be here any minute, and I bail to hit the tables and a some kick axe synth rock….
Depeche mode?
More housing bottom calling in the MSM.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090801/ap_on_bi_ge/us_housing_mid_year_outlook
Frank,
From the article you posted….
This is Hoboken on fuego?
Hoboken used to be the top performer in Hudson County when the county was the top performer in the state in the early 2000s. But the story in Hoboken was similar in June: 575 homes listed, 87 sales, which means demand was 15 percent of supply.
Looks more like a burned out match than a fire….
IMF: Worst Over For U.S., Recovery to be Slow
http://moneynews.newsmax.com/economy/us_economy/2009/07/31/242587.html
yome
re debt-GDP ratio. the problem is that we are a consumer nation not a producer nation. a producer nation can carry a much higher debt load. On top of that both nations have high saving rates which buffers individuals in times of need. the US still has an essentially negative savings rate if you dont count defaulting on debt.
Re population;
still a problem. take a look at the quantity of fertilizer used to produce the current agricultural yields. Now look at petroleum production outlooks for the next 10 - 20 years. fertilizer and pesticides are a direct derivative of oil.
Oh and look at water table levels in china and india. ever look into how long it takes to replenish a fossil aquifer after you deplete it?
yome
what family planning. besides the chinese and their 1 child policy, which they are now relaxing, the global mantra has remained “population growth”, not “population stabilization”
Gary - that tacky Glen Ridge home is open housing tomorrow from 1-5. You up for a field trip? It’s the place with the sky mural on the ceiling and the jacuzzi in the Master BEDroom.
Most of the world population usually have 6 kids per family now its down to 2 to 3.With both parents working ,families are having difficulties more than that.
yome 338,
would love to see you source for those stats
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2006/WPP2006_Highlights_rev.pdf
this suggests that most of the world population is still reproducing like rabbitts. the only area’s that are stable or very low are developed nations which are only a small portion of the global population
yome 338,
would love to see you source for those stats
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2006/WPP2006_Highlights_rev.pdf
this suggests that most of the world population is still reproducing like rabbits. the only area’s that are stable or very low are developed nations which are only a small portion of the global population
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bsXOcK9_Cw
330 - In honor of Chicago’s long awaited day….
Enjoy!
Hey ChiFi
Stop rubbing it in!
338. Good. Most people shouldn’t reproduce anyway.
The term world population commonly refers to the total number of living humans on Earth at a given time. As of 31 July 2009, the Earth’s population is estimated by the United States Census Bureau to be 6.774 billion.[1] The world population has been growing continuously since the end of the Black Death around 1400.[2] There were also short term falls at other times due to plague, for example in the mid 17th century (see graph). The fastest rates of world population growth (above 1.8%) were seen briefly during the 1950s then for a longer period during the 1960s and 1970s (see graph). According to population projections, world population will continue to grow until around 2050. The 2008 rate of growth has almost halved since its peak of 2.2% per year, which was reached in 1963. World births have levelled off at about 134-million-per-year, since their peak at 163-million in the late 1990s, and are expected to remain constant. However, deaths are only around 57 million per year, and are expected to increase to 90 million by the year 2050. Since births outnumber deaths, the world’s population is expected to reach about 9 billion by the year 2040.[3][4]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population_growth
Kettle blame longevity or we can smoke everybody after working years say 65.
Gross domestic product (’GDP’) is defined as the “value of all final goods and services produced in a country in 1 year”.[1] On the other hand, Gross National Product (GNP) is defined as the “value of all goods and services produced in a country in one year, plus income earned by its citizens abroad, minus income earned by foreigners in the country”.[2] The key difference between the two is that GDP is the total output of a region, e.g. France, and GNP is the total output of all nationals of a region, e.g. French.
To give an example of the difference between GDP and GNP, and also income, using United States:[3]
National income and output (Billions of dollars) Period Ending 2003
Gross national product 11,059.3
Net U.S. income receipts from rest of the world 55.2
U.S. income receipts 329.1
U.S. income payments 273.9
Gross domestic product 11,004.1
Private consumption of fixed capital 1,135.9
Government consumption of fixed capital 218.1
Statistical discrepancy 25.6
National Income 9,679.7
A great read…
http://www.northjersey.com/news/opinions/more_columnists/Economic_recovery_not_as_close_as_it_may_seem.html
Gman,
That author is repeating everything I have been saying about earnings. From my perch, absolutely nothing has improved. I agree that the pace of the decline of most economic indicators has slowed, but we are using unparalleled examples in history to make the argument that a recovery is just around the corner.
Bernanke is a smart guy. He has realized that inflation ain’t happening without an increase in wages. Wages ain’t going up in a jobless recovery. Unfortunately, our federal deficit (and debt) are growing exponentially and it’s gonna take down our currency as well the economy of China. Which would really suck, as the talking heads have been praising China as the leader to end the world recession.
Go get your cash for clunker rebate folks. After all, it’s your own money that your getting back.
350#, stu, what’s your new target on FXP? back to 20’s, 30’s, 40’s, 50’s or 60’s?
>Wages ain’t going up in a jobless recovery. Unfortunately, our federal deficit (and debt) are growing exponentially and it’s gonna take down our currency as well the economy of China.
If you have a restaurant you trim your servers to how busy it will be.Buy materials that you will need to get rid of excess to be profitable.
Is that not the same as what the companies are doing now?
350#, stu, cash for clunker.
i didn’t see income cap for this progam.
it seems apply to everybody before nov. 1st and before the money runs out.
http://www.bankrate.com/cnbc/news/auto/20090729-how-cash-for-clunkers-works-a1.asp
>Go get your cash for clunker rebate folks. After all, it’s your own money that your getting back.
yo’me If you have a restaurant you keep as many servers as you can , as they work on tips. Want as many as you can get to give better service , they leave YOU when it gets slow. Cut back on cooks Yes but not servers. As for companies, death spiral self reinforcing.
You cut, I cut the other guy cuts soon we all cut each others throat. Who will buy are goods or services? We all layed off half are people.Welcome to 2010.
mike is that not what makes the companies more profitable.Sell to the remaining 80% employed cut the excess.
Labor force
by occupation managerial and professional (35.5%), technical, sales and administrative support (24.8%), services (16.5%), manufacturing, mining, transportation, and crafts (24%), farming, forestry, and fishing (0.6%) (excludes unemployed)
“Atlas Vacant - The Commercial Real Estate Bust: Gearing up for a $3 Trillion Headache. Increase in Vacancy Rates and Higher Defaults.”
http://tinyurl.com/l4s2r3
Bi,
I can’t possibly make a prediction on FXP/SRS or any ETF short or long for that matter. My personal opinion is that there is a great disconnect between current economic conditions and the current markets.
The last time there was a major disconnect this large was during the tech bubble. I recall people saying that this is a new era where P/Es over 100 were acceptable. The internet had changed the rules. A lot of people were financially ruined. I was not one of them. I once again feel the disconnect. Perhaps my 10% cut in salary and it having been frozen for almost two years, plus the reduction of all my other benefits to only health care coverage is influencing my thoughts. But I doubt this is the case as so many of my friends are also facing similar cuts.
Show me an improvement in consumer spending and I’ll buy the green shoots commentary. I’ll even buy the unemployment claims as a trailing indicator argument. Unfortunately, when consumer spending accounts for 2/3rds of our GDP, and there is no housing ATM or easy credit, then the MSM is full of krap as they were during the tech bubble and during the WMD fiasco.
All of the Friday GDP reports were lacking two key pieces of information. Businesses are not investing in themselves and a much larger part of the GDP this quarter was from a huge increase in government spending. The increased savings rate is complete BS as credit tightening is simply reducing peoples personal debts. For every supposed positive story, there is a scary back story.
I’m not sure where I’m going with all this, but I really wouldn’t be surprised if the market starts collapsing again. I do think CRE will be the impetus, but the time frame is impossible to determine.
On Route 9 in Old Bridge there is a small strip mall on the northbound side just north of Route 18 with a sign in the front of the complex that says retail space available. This sign has been in place for over a year. No stores are vacant nor have any turned over in the last year. My guess is that many of the retail tenants have told the owner that either they take their reduced rent payments or their closing. No owner in this current environment would want to seek a new retail tenant. Eventually, the owner is going to have to renegotiate with the bank who holds the commercial mortgage and credit isn’t quite as friendly as it was when he bought this strip mall five years ago. I’m not sure when all of the CRE owners terms will be reviewed, but I know my company failed to reach its covenants and now is paying a much higher interest rate on our debt. Same will happen to CRE and the crisis will continue under a different name. Now if only I knew what the time frame was.
Night all!
Thanks SAS,
That article is quite appropriate after my last post.
Stu/Bi,
Remember the golden rule of Wall street. “Its a lot easier to lose a dollar on Wall St than to make one!”
If you just lost a dollar, someone just made one, they may have to pay a few cents carrying costs, but at the end of the day, they are up and you are down.
As for SRS, and the like, it’s all down to assets. If CBRE kicks over tomorrow, the bonds know where the assets are going.
SAS
Your “Long Chicago,short New York”. I see what your saying and part of it’s true, but the chances of that play coming out are very very small. A lot of people would have to give up a lot for that to happen.
If you really want to know what just happened, take a long look at Leh and Bear. All the answers are there.
Payrolls Probably Declined at Slower Pace: U.S. Economy Preview
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aqSh0vntimco
Indicator Date Value Forecast
================================================================
ISM Manu Index 8/3 July 44.8 46.5
ISM Prices Index 8/3 July 50.0 51.5
Construct Spending MOM% 8/3 June -0.9% -0.5%
Vehicle Sales Mlns 8/3 July 9.7 10.0
Domestic Vehicles Mlns 8/3 July 7.2 7.4
Pers Inc MOM% 8/4 June 1.4% -1.0%
Pers Spend MOM% 8/4 June 0.3% 0.3%
PCE Deflator YOY% 8/4 June 0.1% 0.2%
Core PCE Prices MOM% 8/4 June 0.1% 0.2%
Core PCE Prices YOY% 8/4 June 1.8% 1.7%
Pending Homes MOM% 8/4 June 0.1% 0.6%
ISM NonManu Index 8/5 July 47.0 48.0
Factory Orders MOM% 8/5 June 1.2% -0.6%
Initial Claims ,000’s 8/6 18-Jul 584 580
Cont. Claims ,000’s 8/6 11-Jul 6197 6245
Nonfarm Payrolls ,000’s 8/7 July -467 -325
Unemploy Rate % 8/7 July 9.5% 9.6%
Manu Payrolls ,000’s 8/7 July -136 -105
Hourly Earnings MOM% 8/7 July 0.0% 0.1%
Hourly Earnings YOY% 8/7 July 2.7% 2.5%
Avg Weekly Hours 8/7 July 33.0 33.0
Cons. Credit $ Blns 8/7 July -3.2 -4.2
U.S. economic growth will be closer to 3 percent than the range of 5 percent to 7 percent for the past 15 years, Bill Gross, who runs Pimco’s Total Return Fund, said in his August investment outlook last week. The U.S. economy will begin to recover in the second half of 2009, he wrote on Pimco’s Web site.
Gross’s $161 billion Total Return Fund returned 12 percent in the past year, beating 96 percent of its peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Pimco, based in Newport Beach, California, is a unit of Munich-based insurer Allianz SE.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPZx5kGyDavA
Be interesting to see how the State & Federal Tax increases & Surcharges effect retirees, who were foolish enough to fund Savings like 401K’s & IRA’s over the years. I can see them all falling into the “Obama/Corzine” Rich designation for a few years after age 70, until all their Life Savings Net Worth is appropriated and redistributed to Illegal Aliens & Public Sector Folks.
“Going up,” Cathy Vangelakos said. “That’s all we hear.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090801/ap_on_re_us/us_lonely_highrise
Here’s an article that was posted on Yahoo, this morning, that covers some local statistics and predictions. Thought some of you might be interested…
“Welcome to the Bottom: Housing Begins Slow Rebound”: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Welcome-to-the-bottom-Housing-apf-3190332284.html?x=0