Wed 23 Sep 2009
Estimated NJ foreclosures: 60,000
Estimated helped by the program: 16,000
Actual helped by the program: 854 (5% of estimate)
Cost: Priceless
No, really: $12,500,000 (~$15,000 per case)
Just for reference, according to RealtyTrac, there were 6,043 Notices of Delinquency, 1,396 Notices of Sheriff Sale and 877 Sheriff Sales in August.
From the NJ Office of the Attorney General:
Statewide Mortgage Foreclosure Mediation Program Launched
Initiative aimed at helping thousands of homeowners facing foreclosure
A new state-supported mortgage foreclosure mediation program is in place to help the thousands of New Jersey homeowners facing foreclosure throughout the state, Gov. Jon S. Corzine, Chief Justice Stuart Rabner and Attorney General Anne Milgram announced today.
…
Gov. Corzine signed legislation in December supporting the program with $12.5 million in state funds.
…
Planners anticipate as many as 16,600 homeowners will participate in the foreclosure mediation program this year. It is estimated that as many as 60,000 homeowners may go through foreclosure this year.
From the Record:
NJ foreclosure mediation program criticized
A state initiative to help troubled homeowners has aided only a small percentage of the estimated 60,000 homeowners who face foreclosure this year, a study from the National Consumer Law Center said Wednesday.
The study looked at foreclosure mediation programs in 14 states, including New Jersey. The study said mediations were completed in 854 New Jersey cases from mid-January, when the program started, to the end of June.
The report said that New Jersey provides “considerable financial support for foreclosure mediations” – paying for housing counselors, attorneys and outreach.
David Wald, a spokesman for the state attorney general, defended the mediation effort.
“We think we have a pretty effective program,” he said, adding that it has helped more than 500 homeowners keep their homes so far this year.
Sorry to be OT, but for anyone looking for a good laugh, please look at post 162 by Nom de Plume in support of his assertion that this country is becoming marxist and attacking corporate headquarters.
Link #1 - (From 1999)
Anarchist N30 Black Bloc Communiqué (LOL!!)
Link #2 - the only credible news source, about the protests against G20 which happen almost every year, every where.
Link #3-
Again G-20 protest
Link #4 -
Bailout Protest.
Link #5 -
Greenpeace agrees not to protest against ExxonMobil for seven years
Link #6 -
Four concerned citizens are locked arm-to-arm across the road to Massey Energy’s regional headquarters off of Corridor-G in Boone County, W.Va.
There is one link in there with some article from 1988.
Shall I go on?
Please do, highly entertaining.
#2
Victorian-
probably the worst use of the pole position this board has ever seen.
the appropriate post is first foist or fristies!
Why? Why not?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ye8mB6VsUHw&feature=fvst
The end is nigh…
http://www.observer.com/2009/media/mckinsey-proffers-pie-graphs-several-conde-mags-cut-25-ish-percent
From Reuters:
U.S. credit card defaults rise to record: Moody’s
The U.S. credit card charge-off rate rose to a record high in August, as more Americans lost their jobs, Moody’s Investors Service said on Wednesday, in another sign consumers remain under stress.
The Moody’s credit card charge-off index — which measures credit card loans that banks do not expect to be repaid — rose to 11.49 percent in August from 10.52 percent in July.
The index resumed an upward trend after declining in July for the first time in almost a year, vanishing hopes of stabilization in the industry after record high credit losses.
“We continue to call for a recovery of the credit card sector to begin once industry average charge-offs peak in mid-2010 between 12 percent and 13 percent,” Moody’s said in a report.
From the WSJ:
September Rents Fall Further in Manhattan
A flurry of activity from bargain hunters seems to have slowed down the rate of rental declines in Manhattan, but the bleeding continues. The market in New York City’s priciest borough is at levels nearly 10% below 2008’s already depressed numbers. Rents across the Big Apple fell as much as 11% in September from August, according to this month’s Manhattan Rental Market Report, which taps data from more than 10,000 listings located below 155th Street and priced under $10,000 per month. It was released Wednesday by brokerage TDG/TREGNY.
…
Overall rents – which don’t reflect the freebies – fell in September in the city. Studios without a doorman averaged rent of $1,902, down from $2,100 a year earlier. Doorman studios fell 6.22% to $2,347. Two-bedrooms without a doorman declined 7.13% to $3,599 a month. Two-bedroom doorman units came in down nearly 8% at $5,094.
“Kettle1 - workers get X-rayed when leaving the diamond mine. Everyday”
yup. true.
so, anyone out there wanna buy their little dame a trophy ring cause you think it will make you look like your hot stuff, i hope you think again.
when you see that ring, you can rest assured, there was about 10 little krio kids getting zapped.
SAS
CNN Money:
Same 4-bedroom house - wildly different prices
http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/23/real_estate/home_price_comparison/index.htm
“The cost of a middle-management-type home varies significantly depending on where in the country you live. But there are some huge spreads within states, as well.”
NEW JERSEY
Basking Ridge NJ $ 502,250
Bridgewater NJ $ 389,129
Clinton NJ $ 490,522
Edison NJ $ 423,554
Haddon Heights NJ $ 238,448
Madison NJ $ 632,325
Marlboro NJ $ 424,768
Montclair NJ $ 545,000
Mt. Laurel NJ $ 294,595
Princeton Junction NJ $ 560,000
Ridgewood NJ $ 801,250
Sparta NJ $ 529,000
Toms River NJ $ 343,500
Warren NJ $ 685,463
Wayne NJ $ 503,000
Westfield NJ $ 596,288
“Gov. Corzine signed legislation in December supporting the program with $12.5 million in state funds”
so let me get this straight…
Corzine will use taxpayer money, to make sure some stays in their home, so they can continue to pay their bank loans.
your state money funnel to wall st bank?
as for me, i couldn’t give a rats ass if you foreclose. Just do me a favor before you do, strip the heck out of it, and if you got any copper pipes, give me an email.
SAS
then again, if anyone is seriosuly staring down a barrel of foreclosure, just stop paying that monthly payment, and pocket it.
These stupid courts are so backed up, banks are so back logged, by the time they come to you, and a sheriff gives you the notice to leave the premises, it will be at least 6 months to 1 year.
no, ain’t no one gonna shut off your water or electric, ain’t no one gonna intimidate you… etc..etc…
If your backs against the wall, you ain’t got nothing to lose.
SAS
Syracuse football is back baby! Chi fi has a small member and will lose your life savings! Just ask grandma! He lives in middletown. Ha ha ha. Play-ya!
BOSTON (AP) - Massachusetts lawmakers fulfilled Sen. Edward M. Kennedy’s dying wish Wednesday, granting the governor the power to appoint an interim replacement for him so President Barack Obama can regain a critical 60th U.S. Senate vote he needs to pass a health care overhaul this year.
Gov. Deval Patrick vowed to fill the seat “very, very soon,” proclaiming he would send a letter to the secretary of state to declare an emergency. That would allow him to override a legislative vote Wednesday that defeated his administration’s effort to make the bill take effect immediately. Normally, legislation faces a 90-day waiting period.
“I recognize the gravity of this decision and I will make it very soon, and tell you just as soon as I do,” the governor told reporters Wednesday night.
Patrick refused to discuss potential appointees, though a top aide confirmed earlier that Kennedy’s sons had lobbied for the appointment of former Democratic National Committee chairman Paul G. Kirk Jr.
Interesting Kennedy made original change to prevent Republican Governor Romney from appointing a replacement for John Kerry. So the two pieces of legislation in effect say that a Governor can replace a Senator only if the Governor is a Democrat? One wonders why the Massachusetts Legislature doesn’t see anything illegal with this?
Victorian,
I’ve concluded in recent years that this brand of populist right wing politics and its religious counterpart is a form of entertainment for the participants, a passionate hobby, not unlike Trekkies. I’ve never met anyone that walks that particular walk, but they sure do talk the talk.
Victorian,
Sure the US is becoming marxist, at least directionally. The government is increasingly taking from those according to their ability, and giving to those according to their “need”.
Barbara/Victorian - for you:
http://www.newsweek.com/id/214253
“Sam Tanenhaus is the biographer of Whittaker Chambers and is at work on the life of William F. Buckley Jr. In a new, short book, The Death of Conservatism, he argues that the right needs to find its footing for the good of the country….
…Buckley saw that the civil disturbances of the late 1960s (in particular urban riots and increasingly militant anti-Vietnam protests) posed a challenge to social harmonies preferred by genuine conservatives and genuine liberals alike. When the Democrat Daniel Patrick Moynihan called on liberals to join with conservatives in upholding “the politics of stability,” Buckley replied that he was ready to help. He placed the values of “civil society” (in Burke’s term) above those of his own movement or the GOP.
Today we see very little evidence of this.”
this country is going straight down the drain thanks to both Bush & Omama admin.
These 2 dirtbags are right up there with LBJ.
Yup, throw congress in their too.
I’d take Nixon back at this point. can we dig him up and put him back in office?
SAS
From the WSJ:
Investors expecting an upbeat chapter for housing should brace for a plot twist.
Two key pieces of housing data arrive this week, starting with August home resales, due Thursday from the National Association of Realtors. Economists think existing homes sold at an annualized rate of 5.39 million units last month, up 9% from a year earlier.
On Friday, the Census Bureau reports new-home sales for August. Economists estimate an annualized sales pace of 440,000 units, flat from a year earlier.
Both reports could add to a snowballing consensus that housing is rebounding. A vigorous recovery would be manna for the economy. Home sales spur purchases of fridges and lawn mowers, and rising prices make consumers wealthier and heal bank balance sheets.
But there are reasons to expect a halting recovery at best.
First, the recovery has leaned heavily on tax credits for first-time home buyers and the Federal Reserve’s buying of most new mortgages to keep rates low. The Fed on Wednesday said it would slow its pace of purchases, and the tax credit is set to expire in November.
Meanwhile, an unemployment rate pushing 10% and tighter credit standards are a drag on housing demand, offsetting high affordability.
More important, there are still too many houses on the market — 9.4 months’ worth of existing homes for sale in July, according to NAR data. The backlog is usually closer to six.
Nearly seven million housing units will eventually enter foreclosure, mortgage-backed-securities strategists at Amherst Securities Group, a brokerage firm that deals in MBS, estimated on Wednesday. That could add 1.35 years’ worth of inventory to the market.
That isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Foreclosure sales have provided steam for the broader housing recovery. But that momentum is petering out. Thanks partly to the effects of government loan-modification programs, there isn’t enough foreclosure inventory on the market to keep the recent gains going, says Mark Hanson, president of the Field Check Group, a California research firm.
California, for example, has seen its available foreclosure inventory slim. That could explain why, according to data tracker DataQuick, California home sales fell nearly 12% month-over-month in August.
Write to Mark Gongloff at mark.gongloff@wsj.com
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125374552378835617.html#mod=WSJ_hps_MIDDLESecondNews
The Feds upbeat, investors are upbeat, heck I AM UPBEAT!!!! I’m Rich Baby!!
“It was like being on a fantastic fairground ride, centrifugal forces throwing us wider and wider. But it’s all right, because there’s this brilliant machine at the center that’s going to bring us back down to earth. That was Manchester. That is the Hacienda. Now imagine the machine breaks. For a while, it’s even better, because you’re really flying. but then, you fall, because nobody beats gravity.” –Tony Wilson
if you’re looking for anti-govt sentiment … kentucky. more to come?
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2009/09/24/us/AP-US-Census-Worker-Hanged.html
Prokhorov Becomes First Russian Owner of Major U.S. Sports Team
Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) — Mikhail Prokhorov bought a majority share of the New Jersey Nets and a stake in the project to build the basketball team’s new Brooklyn arena to become the first Russian owner of a major U.S. professional sports franchise.
Prokhorov, a 6-foot-7 basketball fan who is listed by Forbes magazine as his country’s richest person, agreed to buy 80 percent of the National Basketball Association team and 45 percent of the Barclays Center from Bruce Ratner for $200 million, both said in a news
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601079&sid=axvk6JTljGdw
America armed, but guns not necessarily loaded
Shooting ranges, gun dealers and bullet manufacturers say they have never seen such shortages. Bullets, especially for handguns, have been scarce for months because gun enthusiasts are stocking up on ammo, in part because they fear President Barack Obama and the Democratic-controlled Congress will pass antigun legislation — even though nothing specific has been proposed and the president last month signed a law allowing people to carry loaded guns in national parks.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090923/ap_on_re_us/us_ammo_shortage
Gov. Jon S. Corzine’s social programs only work for him, not the peple of NJ
Anybody catch Qadaffi’s speech yesterday?
Def. worth the effort it took to find somewhere in the tri-state area that would let him pitch a tent.
Why can’t our gubmint do something useful, and dispatch a few Seal trainees to whack this worthless piece of gristle?
sas (11)-
Try 18 to 24 months. In “low-foreclosure” Somerset Co, lenders wait 6 months to file, then 12-18 months for the judgment and docketing for sheriff sale.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/volcker-reinstate-glass-steagall/
TBP - Volcker: Reinstate Glass-Steagall
Tall Paul testifies today….
Gator (5)-
The only magazine in my home is Guns & Ammo.
Your house publish any gun mags?
“The market in New York City’s priciest borough is at levels nearly 10% below 2008’s already depressed numbers. Rents across the Big Apple fell as much as 11% in September from August”
Wait a minute. That’s not what Pret was howling. Then again he was spot on regarding one topic. He reported that the Brits were carrying packages around X-Mas time. Priceless.
“The Feds upbeat”
Have they sat down with Sheila?
Cindy [27],
Bring him back. Get the spineless puppets out.
20 Essex
I will no longer watch 24 Hour Party People because Tony Wilson’s character is beyond annoying. However, your quote is fitting here.
Anybody going to U-2 tonight?
#31 - Bring him back. Get the spineless puppets out.
I’d love for that to happen. I don’t think it will though.
tosh [34],
There is no elected official nor kings, I mean welfare queens, on WS that want to see him at the helm.
Maybe one elected official, Ron Paul.
If Volcker were any more marginalized, he’d be panhandling in the Metro.
#35 - Maybe one elected official, Ron Paul.
Paul and Kuchinich, both of whom are relegated to kook status.
The beast has control of the machine.
#32 - lost - Have you seen Control yet? It’s the Anton Corbijn bio-pic of Ian Curtis, very good.
Link to the trailer is below.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7c2_B_cWK_M
Clot [36],
I don’t understand why he doesn’t tell them to shove it?
38 Tosh
Yes I’ve seen Control. A few times at this point. I thought it was very well done.
Cyclonic,
I’ve been looking at medium high-end houses (850k to $1mn) in choice cities in Somerset county and am still surprised that I’m not seeing that many of these homes come up for sale as a response to the Wall st layoffs.
If you’re saying it takes 24 months, then fallout from the job losses are still far on the horizon. Assuming someone lost their job 1 year ago, many could live on savings and/or credit cards for a year while looking for that next job, so may only be beginning to default. Some may have begun putting their homes up for sale, but only sell if they can get enough to make money on the deal (and only people who bought after 2003 wouldn’t likely make money selling).
Do you have any idea of what % of people in houses like these were using option ARMs or other unsustainable mortgage tools?
A. West same here. I am looking on and off one million to 1.4 million and no big price declines. However the 2-8 million homes had had 20% declines just in last year. You and I are looking at the Starter Trade up home inventory and like a BMW 1 or 3 series you can’t cut the price as much as a 7 series.
re: #25 - Clot - Ahmadinejad speech was interesting.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5EBgqgIWuoc&feature=player_embedded#t=553
http://bank-o-meter.com/bank-o-meter/component/content/article/1-latest-news/289-big-and-ugly
Big and Ugly
“In other words, we’ve been traveling on the road for 2 years and we haven’t budged an inch. The banks are uglier than ever - just now they are really overpriced.”
BC - 31 - Tosh - 34
Well….hopefully we he speaks today, more people will listen.
A. West (41):
“I’ve been looking at medium high-end houses (850k to $1mn) in choice cities in Somerset county and am still surprised that I’m not seeing that many of these homes come up for sale as a response to the Wall st layoffs.”
A week does not go by where I consider playing the moral hazard game once we buy our next home. I’m damned for putting down 20% back in 2004. Why would anyone in their right down put down more than the FHA minimum going forward. The rules of unintended consequences are showing up left and right these days. Look at the results of the clunker stimulus. Now there are no used cars and car sales for September will be lower than prior to the program. My boss is actually buying his car at the end of his lease since used cars are now so expensive due to the short supply caused by the clunker dealio. Can’t wait to see what happens to housing once the government ends the FTBC and stops tinkering with mortgage rates. I really want to buy a new home and I most definitely would have by now, but all of the government tinkering is forcing me to hold off. I still think this is all going to end very, very badly!
“BC - 31 - Tosh - 34″
Cindy,
Looks like a football score. Tosh wins by a field goal.
Vic,
I’ll say this, I walked by CIT headquarters the other day, they had 4 cops with full riot gear and M-16’s out front along with a bomb sniffing dog.
New unemployment claims
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
545 K 550 K 530 K to 555 K 530 K
A New Bubble Of the Fed’s Creation
For the past two years, the central challenge of U.S. economic policy has been to find a way to stabilize the financial system and the economy without reinflating the bubble or going back to the days of consuming more than we produce. In the end, that may prove harder than it seems.
As it was printing all that money, the Fed was also lowering the interest rate at which banks borrow from the Fed and each other, to pretty close to zero. What didn’t change was the interest rate banks charged everyone else. As a result, “spreads” between what banks pay for money and what they charge are near record highs.
So who is borrowing? By and large, it’s not households and businesses, which are reluctant to borrow during a recession. Rather, it’s hedge funds and other investors, who have been using the money to buy stocks, corporate bonds and commodities, driving prices to levels unsupported by the business and economic fundamentals.
The excess liquidity is even being used to finance a new “carry trade” in which global investors borrow at U.S. rates and buy government bonds in places like Australia, where prevailing rates are higher. Because the carry trade involves exchanging dollars for foreign currencies, it has been a major contributor to the recent decline in the dollar.
Naturally, this has been a blessing for Wall Street’s biggest banks, whose trading desks have not only made big money executing and financing the investment strategies of others, but have also been trading actively for their own accounts. And with bubble profits come bubble bonuses.
SG [50],
Exactly. The dollar carry trade. Great for speculators, nil for John Q.
“The Moodys credit card charge-off index which measures credit card loans that banks do not expect to be repaid”
And, once again, those of us who pay our bills get to bail out the ones who don’t.
47 - BC - That is very cool. Who are we rooting for this year?
New coach at Seattle. Fresno State blew it against Boise. Looks like no WAC championship for us again this year.
For all of you incessantly annoying left wingers and right wingers who eat from the Krugman/Beck trough, the real party you should be aiming your tired rhetoric at is the corporate lobbyist party.
You can go on blaming Bush and Obama for the downfall of our once great country, but read this article and tell me who is firmly in control of the reigns.
CNN/Money:
Banks win round 1 in consumer fight
http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/23/news/economy/consumer_financial_protection_agency/index.htm
“”Plain vanilla” was used to illustrate the powers of a proposed new consumer agency. The agency could set basic standards — like one-page, easy-to-understand applications for 30-year-fixed mortgages.
Now, the so-called Consumer Financial Protection Agency won’t get that power, according to a memo on the agency released by House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank.
The memo also says that some key providers of financial services, such as consumer reporting agencies, real estate brokers and auto dealers, would not be subject to the new agency’s oversight.”
“Who are we rooting for this year?”
Cindy,
My team s#cks.
Junk Bond - WSJ Makes GMAC seem like a lifelong govt. ward of state which makes default seem very low.
GENERAL MTRS ACCEP CPSMARTNBE 7.50000% 11/15/2016 CALL
Price (Ask) 66.000
Yield to Worst (Ask) 15.381%
BC (39)-
I think Volcker knows that if he tells TPTB to stick it, it will be a signal to a lot of people in the know that all is lost.
Stu,
The dog and pony show always attracts more viewers. Who’s winning Dancing With The Stars?
Stu [54],
How about the quadrillions in OTC derivatives? Forgot, marked to fantasy.
Stu,
Barney Frank is a putz, in my opinion.
Volcker will NOT upset the ruling elite. This was made obvious by his statements made prior to Obama taking office. At best, he’ll say we need to be careful.
I Love Barney Frank today. Spread that TARP love around you big hunk of man candy.
Cyclonic,
Me thinks it’s close to putting on your boots, that’s stock market boots. Hell, full gear required.
Caribbean traders, off the beach. Man your stations. Let the good times roll.
Stu,
Americans are still enjoying the gaming side of politics. No one goes into Giants stadium because the just like the atmosphere and a good game. We get what we deserve.
Shore,
Did you see the Chicago set list? Full album, BTR, in order.
Stu, John,
Lets rush these state supported jerks and take over their homes at lower prices!
I mean seriously, why does the government have to work so hard to keep these people who took excessive risks in their homes?
1)The government bails out their employers to try to save their jobs (with my tax money)
2)The government donates money to subsidize the mortgages they can’t pay (with my tax money).
3)The government’s central planners in the Federal Reserve artificially lower interest rates and mortgage rates by devaluing the value of my dollar denominated savings, and spending my tax money.
4)The government artificially lowers mortgage rates to historic lows and boosts availablity by funding bankrupt state run mortgage guarantors with broken business models, plus expands mortgage guarantee limits, all of which work to support home prices.
Basically, the government has been doing everything it can to keep all of the weak hands at the table. Creative destruction is off the table. All buggy whip makers must be saved, if they employ enough people. Even junk companies like Chrysler are still at work turning a dollar into ninety cents, with us paying the difference.
At least John made some money by buying bonds benefitting from this government bailout, partly hedging his exposure. My hedge was significant overseas investments.
But what I really want to know is, what’s the timeline for this stupidity to end? What I really worry about is that it won’t. Instead every jerk who overborrowed in the 2000s will be set on a pedestal, and my marginal tax rates will rise to 60%+ to support them, so that even though I’m entering my prime earnings years, my earnings and lifestyle will be subordinated to servicing and maintaining the lifestyles of those who borrowed and spent without restraint before me.
re #50 SG - That article seems inaccurate.
The Hedge funds and other private equity investors have reduced their leverage from the peak not increased it. They may be after new opportunities overseas using the carry trade and leverage but is not 40 to 1 leverage.
The “spreads” are what is making the banks money these days. I don’t think anyone expected the banks to lower their rates when they need to recapitalize.
The trading desks at the big banks are making more money simply because there is less competition (no Bear, no Lehman etc) and other private equity like SWFs that have reduced exposure and trading activity.
Frankly, it seems like the huge potential losses are due to derivatives, most of which seem to have been used like pure gambling chips. As such, Joe and Jane Main Street are again bailing out Henri and Heidi Hamptons. I would like to see congress simply invalidate any derivatives contract entered into before, say, September 15 of this year. The losses incurred by those who entered into the contract, it seems, will be far less than the cost of making good on the contracts, so let’s pull the plug on the old ones and move forward. Those who purchased the contracts lose, tough. It is better than society as a whole taking it on the chin, or, more accurately in the……
Fed will slow efforts to aid housing sector
WASHINGTON - The Federal Reserve will slow its purchases of mortgage securities, seeking to avoid disrupting the housing market as an economic recovery takes hold.
“The Committee will gradually slow the pace of these purchases in order to promote a smooth transition in markets and anticipates that they will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010,’’ the Federal Open Market Committee said yesterday in a statement after meeting in Washington.
Housing Crash to Resume on 7 Million Foreclosures, Amherst Says
Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) — The crash in U.S. home prices will probably resume because about 7 million properties that are likely to be seized by lenders have yet to hit the market, Amherst Securities Group LP analysts said.
The “huge shadow inventory,” reflecting mortgages already being foreclosed upon or now delinquent and likely to be, compares with 1.27 million in 2005, the analysts led by Laurie Goodman wrote today in a report. Assuming no other homes are on the market, it would take 1.35 years to sell the properties based on the current pace of existing-home sales, they said.
“The favorable seasonals will disappear over the coming months, and the reality of a 7 million-unit housing overhang is likely to set in,” they said.
The excess liquidity is even being used to finance a new “carry trade” in which global investors borrow at U.S. rates and buy government bonds in places like Australia, where prevailing rates are higher. Because the carry trade involves exchanging dollars for foreign currencies, it has been a major contributor to the recent decline in the dollar.
Spot on. Bingo. This does nothing for recovery. Japan anyone?
“The Committee will gradually slow the pace of these purchases in order to promote a smooth transition in markets and anticipates that they will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010,’’
Attention K-Mart sellers. Better sell by the 1st quarter. Otherwise, bend down and kiss it goodbye.
Then again, over/under for the fed to continue the program well into 2010?
95% of the country either pays no taxes or are a net deficit to the govt. They utilize more services than they pay for. It is the top 5% of earners who pay the most taxes. Additionally, the top 1%, folks who make manly 400K or more pay a huge chunk of the taxes. I hear all the time from cops and firemen they bailed out wall street. When in fact every pay day on Wall Street at GS, JPM and MS when those huge checks arive with their huge taxes they are the ones bailing out the cops and firemen. Think about it the Wall Street IB CEO who makes 100 Million pays 40 million in taxes. Average city worker makes like 50K. Therefore his taxes can employ 800 city workers. Yet the guy making 50K in 15% tax bracket who pays 750 dollars a year in taxes with three kids in NYC schools at a cost of 40K a year is bailing out wall street.
A.West says:
September 24, 2009 at 8:56 am
Stu, John,
Lets rush these state supported jerks and take over their homes at lower prices!
I mean seriously, why does the government have to work so hard to keep these people who took excessive risks in their homes?
1)The government bails out their employers to try to save their jobs (with my tax money)
I love big article on GMAC in WSJ and they are praising it like a blue chip company. GMAC somehow since it has no public stock and changed its public name to Ally Bank flies under radar oh so well.
Better hurry up and get yours, apparently everybody else is!!!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090923/ap_on_re_us/us_ammo_shortage
Bullet shortage!
re; #72 BC Bob - Just for shits and giggles someone should issue a FOIA request on the BlackRock reports of on market valuation of the 1.25 trillion in Fannie and Freddie MBS purchased.
John,
You bought that GMAC bond? Or you own it at 20 cents already?
54 - Stu
A CNN video of my beloved Elizabeth is sandwiched in the middle of that article. She’s smiling and thrilled with the entire concept of a financial product safety commission. It makes me feel sad.
“I’m damned for putting down 20% back in 2004. Why would anyone in their right down put down more than the FHA minimum going forward.”
Stu, im tempted to put down 20-30% for lower monthly payments. Also most people dont want the risk of investing the remainder of the downpayment in gold chips. What scenario are you imagining that makes 20% down a bad idea? Are you thinking that your home price will collapse 50% at some point which would tempt you to walk? Just curious…
Shore Guy and all:
They are all corrupt putz. In another time, everyone of them would have stepped down due to their ridiculous incongruities.
Everyone who took a Mozillo loan, everyone who supported the WMDs in Iraq debacle, everyone who did not pay their taxes, Charles Rangel, Geitner, Paulson…the list is endless.
TEACHER: Maria, go to the map and find North America .
MARIA: Here it is.
TEACHER: Correct. Now class, who discovered America ?
CLASS: Maria.
____________________________________
TEACHER: John, why are you doing your math multiplication on the floor?
JOHN: You told me to do it without using tables..
__________________________________________
TEACHER: Glenn, how do you spell ‘crocodile?’
GLENN: K-R-O-K-O-D-I-A-L’
TEACHER: No, that’s wrong
GLENN: Maybe it is wrong, but you asked me how I spell it.
(I Love this kid)
____________________________________________
TEACHER: Donald, what is the chemical formula for water?
DONALD: H I J K L M N O.
TEACHER: What are you talking about?
DONALD: Yesterday you said it’s H to O.
__________________________________
TEACHER: Winnie, name one important thing we have today that we didn’t have ten years ago.
WINNIE: Me!
__________________________________________
TEACHER: Glen, why do you always get so dirty?
GLEN: Well, I’m a lot closer to the ground than you are.
_______________________________________
TEACHER: Millie, give me a sentence starting with ‘ I. ‘
MILLIE: I is..
TEACHER: No, Millie….. Always say, ‘I am.’
MILLIE: All right… ‘I am the ninth letter of the alphabet.’
________________________________
TEACHER: George Washington not only chopped down his father’s cherry tree, but also admitted it. Now, Louie, do you know why his father didn’t punish him?
LOUIE: Because George still had the axe in his hand.
______________________________________
TEACHER: Now, Simon, tell me frankly, do you say prayers before eating?
SIMON: No sir, I don’t have to, my Mom is a good cook.
______________________________
79. Veto
“Are you thinking that your home price will collapse 50% at some point which would tempt you to walk? Just curious…”
Butting in, but yes. I was all cash 6 years ago when I started this search, now I want to put down as little as possible. If that crash doesn’t happen, I’ll refi and paydown if it makes sense interest wise. If not, then I’ll just deal with the higher payments.
westy (66)-
It will end in one of three ways:
1. War
2. Repudiation (possibly in conjunction with #1)
3. Revolution/civil war (IMO, a longshot. Narcotization of the public has reached critical mass.)
“But what I really want to know is, what’s the timeline for this stupidity to end? What I really worry about is that it won’t. Instead every jerk who overborrowed in the 2000s will be set on a pedestal, and my marginal tax rates will rise to 60%+ to support them, so that even though I’m entering my prime earnings years, my earnings and lifestyle will be subordinated to servicing and maintaining the lifestyles of those who borrowed and spent without restraint before me.”
John 73-
That IB CEO who makes $100M deserves to fail if he’s taken excessive risks. Another IB will move into his place, replacing his wealth. Part of the problem is that we’ve sold the country on the notion that these companies were too big to fail. The govt has a responsibility to save the game, not the players. Plus the 1M firefighters in this country pay $750M in taxes.
I own GMAC bonds. Heck I owned one back when GMAC tried to cram us down at 60 cents on a dollar and Bill Gross backed out last minute and US Govt bailed us out anyhow. I did not tender. That bond was a 2010 maturity so I get back 100 cents next January, good thing too as I bought it at 96 cents back in 2005. I have around 40K face of GMAC bonds. I kinda like to get in under 60 cents or above 15%. Why 60 cents, well that was US Govts last deal when they tried to cram me. Why 15%, well at at that rate I have all my money back in 6 years. So if it goes broke ten years from now I am only losing gravy. That said these are just fun bonds that would never be appropriate for over 5% of your portfolio. Also I noticed other junk rated the same is going for more. That makes no sense. GMAC has uncle sam. while a crapy company like brunswick or clear channel has no rich uncle.
Alap says:
September 24, 2009 at 9:15 am
John,
You bought that GMAC bond? Or you own it at 20 cents already
BC (72)-
The idiot children on their shiny new bikes will crash the minute the training wheels are removed.
My guess is that the gubmint will keep buying trash until we can start a war, repudiate the debt or civil war breaks out.
Firefighter are a drain on GDP. Any Govt employee who does not make money for the govt is just giving uncle sam back his own money. Plus their low tax rate allows them to receive far more govt benefits than they recieve. I love firefighters, but they cost money.
d2b says:
September 24, 2009 at 9:37 am
John 73-
That IB CEO who makes $100M deserves to fail if he’s taken excessive risks. Another IB will move into his place, replacing his wealth. Part of the problem is that we’ve sold the country on the notion that these companies were too big to fail. The govt has a responsibility to save the game, not the players. Plus the 1M firefighters in this country pay $750M in taxes.
“s will probably resume because about 7 million properties that are likely to be seized by lenders”
John has influenced me. If these 7 million properties get seized, I would not be surprised to see the USG take them and hand them over to “the families who deserve a berak.” For the record, thos families will not be the ones that lived within their means and paid their bills.
break, even
82 - i see. You are willing to pay more to keep your liquidity. This offers an easier exit in the case of a total meltdown.
Hmm… I haven’t been thinking this way. I’ve been thinking that i’ll buy a place for a conservative 3.5x income, not counting my wife’s income and put 20-30% down to make the PITI payments super low - 21% of income. This approach gives some good monthly cash flow relief but it also locks us into the home indefinately.
I’ll have to give it some more thought.
Gator,
What is the Conde shorthand for 4 Times Square, again?
84 - I can’t find that bond you listed anywhere.
Confused [13];
Not at all illegal (because they did it by passing laws!). It does exhibit a complete lack of any intellectual honesty or integrity. We’re talking about Democrats — and Teddy Kennedy. You expected different?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125372876175834787.html#mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
“We definitely need help from the government,” says Lee Barrett, president of Century 21 Barrett, a real-estate brokerage firm in Las Vegas. “I don’t think the market can make it on its own.”
Actually genius, the market will 100% make it on its own. The outcome may not be desirable to Sellers, but the market will bring us to equilibrium very quickly.
When I read stuff like this I want to punch a wall. When did Americans become so stupid? Free-markets are sooooo simple and yet the governement is doing everything it can do screw it all up.
Veto (79):
Are you thinking that your home price will collapse 50% at some point which would tempt you to walk? Just curious…
Not 50%, but when the option to walk away is so damn lucrative even with another 10 or 20% downturn, then it makes sense to keep the jingle mail option open.
Had I put 0% down on my multi in Montclair, I would have gladly played the foreclosure game. Do you know how much money I would have pocketed in 24 months without no mortgage payment? Rent for 4 years and use that money as a downpayment on the next home.
Here’s the math.
I put down 100K and took out a 380K loan. In 5 years I have paid approx. 132K in mortgage payments. I’m leaving hazard and tax payments out of the equation since I would have probably kept paying them. Want to include them? Then add another 60K to the equation to make my total outlay 292K. My home today is worth slightly more than what I paid for it back in 2004. Maybe it’s worth 500K and we brought it for 480K. I sank at least 60K into it for needed improvements so that it would make sense as a rental.
So to simplify…I paid 352K out of pocket for a home that has appreciated 20K. My loan is now down to 345K.
Had I put 0% down, still assuming I put 60K of work into the house. Figure I made payments for the first three years (I’ll even up the interest rate half a point) and then played the default game for the last 2 years. Mortgage payments plus tax and hazard for three years would have been 140K, add the 60K of improvement and I’m in the hole 200K.
200K w/0% loan, vs. 352K playing it with a large downpayment. 152K is a nice downpayment on a home which is now 30% cheaper.
You do the math! Why would I, in my right mind, put down more than the FHA minimum? If house values drop another 20% from here, the savings by jingle mail is much larger than any savings you’ll obtain by making a larger downpayment, not to mention that your downpayment could have been earning interest (albeit small) the whole time.
I love firefighters, but they cost money.
And loser CEOs don’t?
Shore - 4 to the 2nd power (I think).
Until the USG gets out of the business of picking winners and losers in the free market, no amount of “help” will help.
Stu - Don’t beat yourself up. The NAR says 60% of your wealth is home equity.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34cW_lw-osk&feature=related
“Until the USG gets out of the business of picking winners and losers in the free market, no amount of “help” will help.”
This was first stated here about 30 months ago. If I recall correctly Skeptic disagreed vehemently. We still don’t know who is right.
Sean,
Not beating myself up at all. Just doing the math to make sure I don’t repeat the same mistake again. I’m captain cheapo, remember? I used to take pride in my 800K credit score, net wealth and lack of debt (outside my mortgage). Today, I’m learning that this was completely foolish. I guess it does suck to be in the minority.
That 15%+ one sold. I would say hold out for 15% or closer to 60 and under. They pop up now and then in small losts 1k to 15K. No rush.
Now highest is this one, mid 14’s. GENERAL MTRS ACCEP CORP 7.15000% 09/15/2018 CALL
CUSIP 3704A0AC6
“Until the USG gets out of the business of picking winners and losers in the free market, no amount of “help” will help.”
Shore,
“Down here its just winners and losers and dont
Get caught on the wrong side of that line”
Pret,
Feel free to chime in.
BC,
It now seems there is no wrong side of the line, no matter how boneheaded one’s actions.
How to scare your pregnant wife.
http://gawker.com/5366609/giant-baby-will-not-be-ignored
Why is 20% down a drain on liquidity? People have 401ks, 529s, Pensions, Bank Accounts, Whole life, IRAs, boats, cars and brokerage accounts. RE is just one of the many legs we have of assets.
Existing Home Sales
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
5.24 M 5.350 M 5.200 M to 5.410 M 5.10 M
re: #105 - John cumon now even accountants don’t believe cars are assets.
Expect the NAR to sell the below consensus report on existing home sales as a seasonal adjustment, although they ignored the same seasonal adjustment in the Spring when the numbers appeared to have increased.
Stu,
I hear you, but all of this happened already in the 80’s. I bought our 2bdr condo for $140,000 (with closing fees) and sold 12 years later for $92,000. That is 12 years of mortgages, real estate taxes (belleville!) and mortgage insurance and condo fees. Brought $10,000 cash to closing. My friends all did same. We all spent next decade digging out. I think current crisis just affected the entire nation this time, not just north jersey condo buyers
Alap says:
September 24, 2009 at 9:49 am
84 - I can’t find that bond you listed anywhere.
Are you viewing a retail platform? If so, they will likely lock you out of junk….you need a wholesale platform. As BS as this sounds, it goes off credit rating not pricing…
Alap: my advice is do not f* around….the easy money is over. Yeah you are getting yield, but you are being compensated for risk.
Shore, Stu,
The government can take away the money of those who earn and save, but it can’t take away their pride.
Welcome to the world desired by the philosophical altruists - where the lives of the virtuous and productive are sacrificed for the sake of the incompetent and unproductive.
Only a moral/philosophical revolution can change the political dynamics, longer term.
http://www.aynrand.org/site/PageServer?pagename=media_new
boken (93)-
Even more puzzling, this dolt doesn’t understand that if the gubmint backed out of the market, his business would skyrocket.
re #111 - As Chi said the other day why not wait for TBTF part deux, it will be here soon enough.
OK, it is performance review time and let me ask a Women Question. Got a big deal international assignment to give out. Have a fast track married male and female and can send both. The female said I will think about it. First of all I was not asking but telling, but technically you can’t be made to go. I then asked is it an issue with your husband supporting your career. Got response he allowed me to go to grad school but I need to check, but he won’t go to overseas with me as he has his job, well I said what if this becomes a big deal and you are making 10x his salary, oh he still likes to work. I said I thought he support your career, she said he does.
The male my wife supports my career if I got a big job overseas she would just quit her job and move with me.
Interesting the man’s wife had a bigger job than the women’s husband. Two very different definitions of supporting a career. Is it a male/female thing or is it just personalities at play?
BC (102)-
Pret was cashiered and turned out long, long ago.
Downfall of NYC is coming. I live in the illustrious city of Manhattan, but I know we are going to have to take a step back after the big Wall Street funded party. Lately when I take the trains to the outerboroughs, I notice a lot more homeless in the area sleeping in the trains or in the station. A panhandler has taken residence in the front of the empty commercial building next to my apartment building. For the first time I even saw a squeegee guy cleaning windshields. The fringes of NYC are starting to fray. While NYC has had a renaissance, the tide has definitely turned. I am saying this because today while walking to my train station downtown, at the bottom of the stairwell, some miscreant decided to drop a deuce at the bottom of the stairs. It was definitely not a dog, because the culprit took the time to wipe with tissues and leave those behind as well. Let’s just say that while I hope that prices do continue to go down, it also means that there will be hardships felt. So much so that a person does not have any other choice, but to relieve themselves in a stairwell of a subway station.
John (105)-
Any dolt who has whole life insurance probably doesn’t have a ton of real assets.
Chifi, I agree, that is why I said 60 and under or 15% yield that knocks out 99% of GMAC bonds being traded right now. I see people buying this stuff at 12% yield or at 78 cents on a dollar and think that is nuts.
chicagofinance says:
September 24, 2009 at 10:16 am
Alap: my advice is do not f* around….the easy money is over. Yeah you are getting yield, but you are being compensated for risk.
“Any dolt who has whole life insurance probably doesn’t have a ton of real assets.”
Amen!
Volker’s Speech:
http://www.house.gov/apps/list/hearing/financialsvcs_dem/volcker.pdf
And now the good parts, outlined by Reggie Middleton…
However well justified in terms of dealing with the extreme threats to the financial system in the midst of crisis, the emergency actions of the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and ultimately the Congress to protect the viability of particular institutions – their bond holders and to some extent even their stockholders – have inevitably left an indelible mark on attitudes and behavior patterns of market participants.
• Will not the pattern of protection for the largest banks and their holding companies tend to encourage greater risk-taking, including active participation in volatile capital markets, especially when compensation practices so greatly reward short-term success?
• Are community or regional banks to be deemed “too small to save”, raising questions of competitive viability?
• Does not the extension of support to non-banks, and even to affiliates of commercial firms, undercut the banking/commerce divide, ultimately weakening the commercial banking system?
• Will not investors in money market mutual funds find reassurance in the fact that when push came to shove, the Treasury with an extreme interpretation of its authority, took action to preserve those funds ability to meet their declared commitment to pay their investors at par upon demand?
What all this amounts to is an unintended and unanticipated extension of the official “safety net”, an arrangement designed decades ago to protect the stability of the commercial banking system. The obvious danger is that with the passage of time, risk-taking will be encouraged and efforts at prudential restraint will be resisted. Ultimately, the possibility of further crises – even greater crises – will increase.
There is no easy answer, no one-size fits all contingencies. Experience, not only here but in every country with highly developed, inter-connected financial systems and institutions bears out one point. Governments are not willing to withhold financial and other support for failing institutions when there is a clear threat to the intertwined fabric of the financial system. What can be done is to put in place arrangements to minimize the extent of emergency intervention and to damp expectations of government “bailouts”.
Volcker goes on to disagree with the Treasury plan to name banks that are “systemically important” or “too big to fail”.
Think of the practical difficulties of such designation. Can we really anticipate which institutions will be systemically significant amid the uncertainties in future crises and the complex inter-relationships of markets? Was Long Term Capital Management, a hedge fund, systemically significant in 1998? Was Bear Stearns, but not Lehman? How about General Electric’s huge financial affiliate, or the large affiliates of other substantial commercial firms? What about foreign institutions operating in the United States?
All hard questions. In practice the “border problem” seems intractable. In fair financial weather, the important institutions will feel competitively hobbled by stricter standards. In times of potential crisis, it would be the institution left out of the “too big to fail” club that will fear disadvantage.
Stu - right.
consider tax breaks on interest, prop taxes and repairs - you wouldnt get them by renting.
Without owning you would have needed to rent somewhere - $2k/month would have been 120K over 5 years, 132K in mortgage isnt that much more.
Also, you bought in 04 - a 30% discount from 2004 doesnt exist right now.
Are you getting rent from tenants? - if so, factor that in.
Im sure the 60k repairs and all the prop taxes add up but 20K of equity in the worst housing collapse in 100 years - not bad.
I am in the 400-500k price range and can’t seem to find any decent 4bd/2ba/colonial or split in the nicer towns of somerset/eastern hunterdon counties…and inventory is getting lower by the week. Seems like no one wants to drop below 550k (or no realtors want to allow it!). I have been looking for 6months. Majority of the people I work with all live in PA, but I am hoping to avoid that(I work at various company’s off 287 btw parsippany and bridgewater) Offers of 10% below list are not even being considered. Avg sales for past 6mo have been btw 4-6% off list, so I assume that a 10% initial offer would lead to a negotiation ending in 5% off, but it isn’t working :( Any advice besided staying in my condo indefinitely?
John [105],
Whole life? You are kidding, right?
i’m w/ stu and barbara on the down payment issue. as much as it contradicts most of our firm beliefs on the board, there are too many “real” variables that leaves a large dp susceptible to vanish. just w/in my innner circle of friends and family i’ve seen real losses of over 200k in down payment money.
Stu,
Get it appraised for 600K, strip the equity out and stop making pmnts but collect rents. It will take them over 2 yrs to foreclose. In the meantime collect rents. Assuming rent roll is 4K. That’s 100K “free” rents in 2yrs.
You’re looking at 2012 by now. Much closer to actual bottom and you’ll be sitting pretty.
Veto That: All considered. Don’t forget, I’m collecting rent both under distress and not. The tax breaks are nice, but AMT helps rid me of many of them. I still posit that I would have jinglemailed about now if I put 0% down and would have walked away at a decent advantage.
The 800 credit rating don’t mean shite when 90% of the population doesn’t have it. My credit cards are still getting closed, even though I never carry a balance and use them pretty regularly.
Make,
Trust me, it is very tempting. I don’t think the wifey would go for it, but if we buy a new place soon, it might make sense. Better incorporate the old place first I suppose. Now how do I get an appraiser to appraise the house for 600K? Should I go to Moody’s or S&P?
“Should I go to Moody’s or S&P?”
Stu,
How about Bi?
[21] yikes
I have been saying that stuff like this is gonna happen. More likely he wandered into meth lab country than a k1an rally, but the sentiment isn’t good.
[1] vic,
Again, the use of labels. G-20 protests are protests against capitalism. Environmental protests are against certain economic activities (and you apparently didn’t read why they entered into a consent decree). Just because they are spit-in-the-ocean doesn’t mean that they don’t represent a subcurrent of society that wants to end our current system. They do, and they have “mainstream” supporters that aren’t out breaking windows or occupying offices (which is a remarkably ineffective way of stopping any organization).
I think we are both getting tired of using Grim’s bandwidth to debate non-r.e. issues. I suggest we save it for a GTG. Bring your A game.
Gordon Gecko released from Sing Sing
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1215105/The-moment-Gordon-Gekko-released-prison-Wall-Street-sequel.html
Stu,
When people keep on saying “we’re all in this together,” these are codewords providing a blanket excuse for redistribution. Your future wealth will have more to do with your neighbors’ credit score than your own, under this political dynamic. The more they borrow and spend beyond their means, the more you get to contribute to their support! Doesn’t it feel good knowing you’re helping someone stay in their home and their leased BMW?
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/09/following-footsteps-of-japan.html
BC,
You said Japan since early 2008. Why doesn’t anyone listen to you?
I have term life, but old people have assets everywhere including whole life. BTW Whole life would have been an extremely smart purchase on March 9, 2009. BTW even a cemetary plot is an asset as there is a secondary market.
Stu says:
September 24, 2009 at 10:25 am
“Any dolt who has whole life insurance probably doesn’t have a ton of real assets.”
Amen!
[23] yo’me
Not entirely correct. Early this year, the administration ended the practice of DoD selling expended brass cartridges to reloaders. Previously, DoD had contracts with reloading companies that would buy up their expended shells and reload them. The reloads were considerably cheaper since no new brass need be manufactured. Many popular calibers were on the market in this way.
Now, if anyone wants to buy expended cartridges from DoD, they have to shred the metal so they can’t be used for reloading. Metal dealers say that this reduces the value of the scrap to 1/5 its value as whole, reloadable cartridges. What it also does is effectively put bulk manufacturers out of business (ironically, all U.S. companies. Now companies like Wolf (russian) are flooding the market with their cheap ammo).
FWIW, I saw this coming and made my purchases before Chairman O locked up the dem nomination.
“You said Japan since early 2008. Why doesn’t anyone listen to you?”
Make,
Because I’m delusional. I sold out, RE, in 9/05. Who in the right mind would do that?
Whole life? Another consumer rip off. How much of the annual payment goes to death protection and how much goes into “savings”? That’s OK, we’ll only charge you 6% to borrow your own money, which we pay you 1-2%.
Asset? My ass.
cumon now even accountants don’t believe cars are assets
Do you believe taking a train,a bus,taxi an asset? I think yes,coz it brings you to work or your destination.Let’s say you bought a car for $30,000 and put in 100,000 miles on it.That cost you 30 cents a mile add gas repair,insurance make it 60 cents a mile.That is still less expensive than taking a bus which cost 50 cents a mile and factor the convenience of not waiting in the rain or cold.Residual value.So yes it is an asset.I think we forget the constant expense we shell out.
136#, you have mentioned this here more than 20 times. where do you stay now? at a bahamas beach?
>Because I’m delusional. I sold out, RE, in 9/05. Who in the right mind would do that?
[82] cyclo
Actually, I think repudiation will go hand in hand with a secession effort. I agree that secessi*n is highly unlikely. But the one force that could make it a reality is an extremely high USG debt level, and if a state or bloc of states gets the idea that by seced1ng, they effectively repudiate the debt, well, that could work.
Problem with waging civil war is that it constitutes treas*n if you are a U.S. citizen. But I question whether a secessi*n effort is treas*n or sediti*n. After all, you are not waging war, or advocating the overthr*w of the USG by force or vio1ence, so where is the treas*n or sediti*n? See 18 U.S.C. Sections 2381-86.
Soooo, if the USG is deeply in debt, and citizens of one region get it in their head that they can avoid that debt load (and reduce their taxes dramatically) through secessi*n and renunciation of US citizenship, it has a chance.
“you have mentioned this here more than 20 times”
Only 1/20th of the time you addressed SRS.
I stay underground.
In a bind I could raise around 35K selling my two cars and walk to train. I don’t care as much about residual as I buy used and I drive around 900 miles a year on car one and around 10-20 miles on car two a year and my primary truck logs around 1,200 miles a year. I really could sell the truck to if I had too.
yo’me says:
September 24, 2009 at 11:05 am
cumon now even accountants don’t believe cars are assets
Do you believe taking a train,a bus,taxi an asset? I think yes,coz it brings you to work or your destination.Let’s say you bought a car for $30,000 and put in 100,000 miles on it.That cost you 30 cents a mile add gas repair,insurance make it 60 cents a mile.That is still less expensive than taking a bus which cost 50 cents a mile and factor the convenience of not waiting in the rain or cold.Residual value.So yes it is an asset.I think we forget the constant expense we shell out.
Boken 93
When did Americans become so stupid? Free-markets are sooooo simple and yet the governement is doing everything it can do screw it all up..
To borrow a line from Watchmen;
What happened to the american dream? It came true.
But at a cost of the greatest debt bubble ever imagined.
The stupid Americans are just another addict afraid of withdrawal from their drug of choice, debt.
Free market economics are very simple and we want nothing to do with them, because it means economic survival of the fittest, not something that is politically acceptable in the US anymore.
The fear of failure can be seen in schools who refuse to fail students to the government bailing out the automakers to home owner bailouts.
Nothing changes until we relearn to accept failure as a natural and useful tool. A learning opportunity
[75] Raul V
I love this line. It validates my thinking.
“Used to be gold, but now lead is the most expensive metal,” said Donald Richards, 37, who was stocking up at the Jefferson store. “And worth every penny.”
After all, I can always barter bullets for food.
(and if the world doesn’t end, I can join Gunny in Knob Creek for the big shoot-em-up).
Jim [123]
Wait till this summer….sellers will capitulate…patience…
How happy is this guy? Not only did he find a lot of shiny, but shiny that is worth more than the base metal itself.
“LONDON, England (CNN) — A man using a metal detector in a rural English field has uncovered the largest Anglo-Saxon gold hoard ever found — an “unprecedented” treasure that sheds new light on history, archaeologists said Thursday.
The hoard includes 5 kilograms (11 pounds) of gold and 2.5 kilograms (5.5 pounds) of silver. That is more than three times the amount of gold found at Sutton Hoo, one of Britain’s most important Anglo-Saxon sites, said the local council in Staffordshire where the latest haul was found. . . .”
Nom [145],
Too bad his name is not Gordon Brown.
[146] BC
Don’t think that old Gordo isn’t looking for his cut. I am sure that HM Inland Revenue is sizing this guy up right now.
OT,
Shore, how’s the guitar playing coming along? I just picked up a bargain Takamine on ebay. plays and sounds very nice!!
Quick make the tax credit 16k for first time home buyers!
Existing home sales slumped 2.7% in August from July, surprising many economists who expected a small increase in today’s National Association of Realtors (NAR) release. Average selling price fell 2.2% from July as well.
http://www.businessinsider.com/existing-home-sales-2009-9
Goldman Sachs Freaked Out Over Being So Damn Good It Hurts Goldman’s bonus pool is expected to swell to an estimated $16 billion after what’s expected to be another stellar quarter, and Blankfein is struggling to figure out how to pay his employees in a way that keeps them happy while avoiding another round of populist and political outrage like the bank experienced over the summer http://dealbreaker.com/
Uncle Jay (144),
Are you talking about summer 2010? I’m not seeing much capitulation yet, and it’s already fall in 2009. I had one seller walk away from our bid over a 4% difference between bid/ask, and then pulled the house off the market. Maybe he finally found a job.
John says:
September 24, 2009 at 10:20 am
“Interesting the man’s wife had a bigger job than the women’s husband. Two very different definitions of supporting a career. Is it a male/female thing or is it just personalities at play?”
John - It’s a male/female thing. Us females are the suckers always stroking fragile egos. “Support” means quite different things.
disclaimer - Yes, I know a generalization, but that doesn’t mean there is truth there.
“doesn’t mean there ISN’T truth there”
““doesn’t mean there ISN’T truth there””
We knew what you meant. Just getting in touch with my feminine side I suppose.
143 Kettle - Well said, and I totally agree. As a nation, we have taken some of the most valuable tools out of our tool-box right before we try to rebuild.
West - I’ve seen alot of strength in re locally too.
One month ago, we bid 17k below ask on one house. Till this day they have not counter offered or shaved even one dollar from their price. They are getting mass traffic and everyone who looks at it says they love the home and will be making an offer soon.
John,
You can’t make a generalization from 2 observations like that. There are too many different particulars within families that can influence the decision to go for an international assignment.
The spouse could very well be a convenient excuse, covering the real issue.
I agree with you. I met Sally Krewcheck once and she said when she got her first big break her husband was holding her back so she divorced him and later on married a guy who works part time so he can take care of kids. She said when once spouse is traveling and working 70 hour weeks the spouse has to scale back his career or stay at home. She said most men are selfish. Most women if their husband was Partner or SVP potential would support it. I actually would love if my wife was CEO, Tennis anyone?
lisoosh says:
September 24, 2009 at 11:31 am
John says:
September 24, 2009 at 10:20 am
“Interesting the man’s wife had a bigger job than the women’s husband. Two very different definitions of supporting a career. Is it a male/female thing or is it just personalities at play?”
John - It’s a male/female thing. Us females are the suckers always stroking fragile egos. “Support” means quite different things.
disclaimer - Yes, I know a generalization, but that doesn’t mean there is truth there.
Ket (143)
We don’t use the word “failure” anymore, the new PC term to use from now on is “differently successful”.
Those differently successful in making this linguistic transition will be sent to national re-education camps.
There is no real excuse. Once womeon CFO told me whe she calls a man into office and said I have a big overseas assigment I need you to go on they say yes. They don’t even ask where or for how long. However, the majority of women want to think about it. Even more interesting one Female CFO offered a huge promotion to one of her female VPs who had three kids. She announces that she is pregant but has not told anyone yet so she would have to say no. She yelled at her and said what man with a fourth one on way would turn down a huge promotion you need to make this work, she did somehow and now youngest is in kindergarten.
A.West says:
September 24, 2009 at 11:35 am
John,
You can’t make a generalization from 2 observations like that. There are too many different particulars within families that can influence the decision to go for an international assignment.
The spouse could very well be a convenient excuse, covering the real issue.
A 159,
No worries, i am sure i’m on the priority list for re-education
A west
fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail fail
159 - I think you mean “Alternatively successful”
Whoa!
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/exhaustion-rate-hits-new-record-more-half-unemployed-exhaust-benefits-finding-job
From the CNN
Existing home sales slide unexpectedly
The report breaks a four-month streak of increases with a dip of 2.7% in August.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Existing home sales fell in August, snapping a four-month streak of increases, according to a report released Thursday.
Sales of previously-owned homes fell 2.7% last month from July, but were up 3.4% from a year ago, said the National Association of Realtors.
Sales had jumped 15.2% in the previous four months.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/24/real_estate/existing_home_sales/?postversion=2009092411
I work from home and was just “asked” to travel for a week. I stupidly said I would think about it, even though I knew that if I didn’t go there would be a big enormous black mark on my file. I guess I was thinking about the kids…my husband dealing etc.
Renter from my prior company they sometimes talked about things that may not happen. A few people said no to trips or big demanding project that fell through anyhow and were considered inflexible because they turned down a project that never really existed.
I am a male, I work from home and I travel (via newark airport) about 50% travel. The airport has pretty bad delays, but it’s better than commuting in traffic on 78 and 287 2x/day, 5 days a week (and from what I hear, nothings worse than commuting to nyc). I travel all over the world, normally mon-thurs, and never longer than a 2.5 week trip without coming home in btw. I would not commit to real long term travel since I have a wife/family/life in nj. To be honest, I could really do the entire job from home, but it is much more efficient to be onsite, and of course to sample the beer and local food in every country.
I quickly realized I shouldn’t have said I would think about it. I said yes and I am off to a week long conference next week.
John, your absolutely right about appearing inflexible.
WOW you lucky dog, where is conference!
renter says:
September 24, 2009 at 12:24 pm
I quickly realized I shouldn’t have said I would think about it. I said yes and I am off to a week long conference next week.
John #158 -
Given the chance I would bow out from the workforce to stay at home for 5-10 years, mixing margaritas on play dates for all the other mommies!!!
D.C.
I don’t believe most men could stay home and do the mommy thing. My husband confesses he would lose his mind if he had to stay home…then again with a CEO spouse there would be much to entertain.
Renter, who cares if men want to stay home or not. do they care if women want to stay home. Both my sisters are bringing home the bacon while their husbands have dishpan hands. All they have to do is earn one dollar a year more than their wive’s to switch places. My wife is at home and it is the hardest job she ever had and wishes she could be back in her cube sipping coffee and shopping online instead of dealing with three kids nine and under. I tell her honey, make one dollar a year more than me and I will put the apron on. Only thing I wouldn’t like is after a 14 hour day that ends at 10 pm the wife coming home drunk from a business dinner and wanted to strap one on and give it to me hard.
The end is near when kodak, CIT, GMAC and Realogy bonds all jumped this month.
Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) — Realogy Corp.’s debt soared as the owner of Century 21 and Coldwell Banker said it’s seeking $325 million of second-lien term loans to swap for bonds held by Icahn Partners LP and that it may exchange other debt for equity in the company.
The company’s $1.7 billion of 10.5 percent notes dues in 2014 rose 8.9 cents to 81 cents on the dollar in New York as of 9:48 a.m., according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.
*156 “Mass traffic, everybody loves, it, they will be making offers soon”.
And yet the house has not went UC yet? Just saying.
LT,
No contract yet but you are missing the entire point. If this really is a depressed market, wtf are they thinking?
Its one thing to be bearish on re, but its quite another to be totally tuned out of reality.
Me for example, im bearish but im not blind. Homes are moving in my neighborhood. thats a fact. Market has picked up and inventory is clearing - at least for now. I wont deny the short term strength because i am bearish in the long run.
Most people have jobs and there are almost zero foreclosure sales that you read about happening everywhere else in the country. If they are short sales or foreclosure sales they are asking market price and getting it within a month or two.
John/Renter -
1. Where both partners work, the women still pick up the lions share of the work at home. Makes it much harder to travel. When my last job sent me abroad I had a ball - no cooking, housekeeping, private room, no crying kids. It was like a vacation. Took me two weeks before I left to get everything in place so my husband could cope -from organizing babysitters to precooking meals and making sure the bills were all paid.
(And no, my husband isn’t useless).
2. I think most men find being “kept” emasculating. They have trouble putting together social networks when they are at home too - no “dads” groups in place of “moms” groups.
Emasculated man does nothing for the relationship, except for a few dominatr!x types I suppose or masoch!stic men.
I find that my marriage is more balanced when I make my own money. I don’t particularly enjoy being a kept woman, even if I do all the work at home.
Imagine going back to work with a resume gap from child rearing is even worse for a man than a woman too.
Speaking of kept men, at a gtg sometime, someone remind me to tell the story of one of my college roommates and what he did instead of graduating. Oy! The lives some people live.
Im reading a report from TREND MLS for my county and neighborhood that my realtor just sent me. Its making me feel light headed.
My Neighborhood Zip:
YOY Q2 prices - down 2.8%
Closings % of Asking Price - 96.6%
Here is Trenton Zip…
YOY Q2 Prices - Down 22.66%
This is a huge difference people. One City 10 miles away collapses prices 22% yoy while my neighborhood holds steady.
Im afraid will take and apocylopse to collapse prices in my neighborhood. I talk to our local friends and they dont even know a recession is here. They all thought that was in 2007.
BC Bob,
In a Japanese deflationary type scenario, wouldn’t this affect commodities such as gold/oil as well?
Regarding Whole Life Insurance….if you were you standing here with $100,000 and had a set of choices, yes, whole life insurance has a bunch of drawbacks. However, while I have personally only sold a handful of such products in my entire career, I have seen many people walk into my office with products in hand, and in some cases, it was a good product.
An annuity sticks in my mind. Some scummy ridiculous thing with a 15 year lock-up until it was completely penalty free for withdrawal. Expenses are probably horrendous etc. However, what is the product? Some stupid name such as “Mongo Super-Duper Max 500 Index Protected Guaranteed Preferred” annuity.
On the anniversary date of 3/28, a comparison is done to the prior year’s index level of the S&P 500 versus current. If the difference is greater than zero, you get the % return, if it is less than zero, you lose nothing. It is not a cumulative calculation. The measurement is reset every year.
Yes, when I first looked at this thing which was purchased in 2004 and the client is effectively locked until 2017-18 or so, I said “WTF is this piece of sh!t”. But damn if that thing isn’t the greatest thing going right now in hindsight. In fact, given where the index was on 3/28/09, this think is going to rocket 3/28/09-3/28/10.
I do not appreciate insurance as investments, because most of all it is confusing, difficult to evaluate, and in general expensive.
That said, really rich people; people who use trusts for estate planning purposes; and business people have legitimate reasons to use these products.
” They are getting mass traffic and everyone who looks at it says they love the home and will be making an offer soon.”
Any day now. A-n-y day. A-n-y d-a-y. Yup, gonna rush right over with that offey. Yessireebob.
At this point, I would be inclined to make them another offer, several thousand less than the original one — to reflect the continuing decline in the market. Oh, and put a 24-hour expiration on the offer.
RE: “Closings % of Asking Price - 96.6%”
Guaranteed that’s 96.6% of last asking price, not the original asking price from the previous four mls listings.
This is bucks county PA,
this zip… 18955 collapsed prices 44% yoy and prices are selling at 85% of ask. Sales volume in that zip collapsed 75% over the year.
Meanwhile zip 18930 in Bucks prices rose 7% yoy - volume increased 200% and homes are closing at 96% of ask.
The disparity from one zip to another is astonishing. If you live in a nice neighborhood the whole housing correction may not even show up at all.
Can anyone destroy the credibility of TREND Mls for me please? I dont know much about who they are or if the data is reliable and i’d like very much to just rip this report and throw in the garbage - but something tells me its making a very valid point here.
lisooh, #179
Not necessarily.
One of my brothers stayed home to play “Mr. Mom.”
He’s a tech in nuclear medicine, and could work “on call” in the evening and on the weekends. There’s a lot of demand for his specialty.
It worked out well, and he had no problem going back full time.
“I would be inclined to make them another offer, several thousand less than the original one — to reflect the continuing decline in the market.”
Shore,
My dillema is that we have become their back-up offer. So now they are waiving it around to drudge up more demand.
But if they do come back to the table and realize that our offer is the best one, thats when i will realize that the house is not even worth what we offered, otherwise someone else would have bid higher - thus they would have not come back to the table to begin with.
Why do I feel that im in a lose lose here?
HP [182],
My Japanese scenario is a slog, economy and employment, for many, many years. We can have a combination of deflation/inflation during this time. Asset prices, credit, wages, cap util., deflationary. If this occurs, the dollar will continue its trashing and result in inflation in some areas; imports and commodities.
Presently, crude should be trading near its low, gold should be much lower. However, they are traded at every major institution as a currency. Their comp is the dollar. Besides a few days/week of a dead cat bounce, what structural changes are in store for the dollar?
The goal is to debase our currency and induce inflation. One should be careful what they wish for.
Veto 181:
Areas don’t crash uniformly any more than they rise uniformly.
“Nice” areas rose quickly and the worse areas only rose as affordability decreased.
In the drop, the worst areas (Trenton would definitely qualify) are the first to go as there is less panic/necessity that forces people there - plus people buy in these towns as “investments” which they are doing less of. The crash then moves like a wave.
Qwerty, i bet thats right too, but the yoy price changes tell the real story so i dont know why they even put that in there.
Still 7% price increase for that zip in bucks and only 2.8% decrease in prices for my neighborhood??? Cmon, that is shocking… no?
You are only lose lose if you continue allowing them to use you as the backup offer. If it were I, I would remove the original offer you made and make a new lower, reflecting the new realities, and make the offer expire quickly. THEY CAN EITHER FISH OR CUT BAIT but they will not be able to use you as a backstop — Well I will go to the prom with you, if Billy doesn’t ask me. F that!
scribe says:
September 24, 2009 at 1:48 pm
“lisooh, #179
Not necessarily.
One of my brothers stayed home to play “Mr. Mom.”
He’s a tech in nuclear medicine, and could work “on call” in the evening and on the weekends. There’s a lot of demand for his specialty.
It worked out well, and he had no problem going back full time.”
There are always exceptions to the rule. Plus working “on-call” isn’t the same as taking time off. He kept himself in the game and that worked to his advantage.
I don’t think it is rocket science:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19977348/
“But it appears men who make the decision to become stay-at-home dads may be in even more career hot water.
Men have the added problem of trying to return to work in a society that just doesn’t get why they made the decision to leave a budding career in the first place.”
As for societies pressures on guys who aren’t working - ask Gary how that was.
Veto,
Shore Guy is correct. When we made that recent offer on a FSBO in Glen Ridge. It clearly stated that our offer would need to be renegotiated if any significant time elapsed.
Lishoosh, i understand correlation differences but we are talking two totally different directions.
The two Bucks county zips - one is up 7% and the other is down 45%!!!!
Are you saying that you are not the least bit surprised by these differences?
This is over a full year. not one qtr…
Veto-
“this zip… 18955 collapsed prices 44% yoy”
Are you sure about this? Also what is The volume of sales? 10 homes? 100 homes?
I’m in Montco, PA.
veto #181, I agree 100%. I saw the same in my area (Closings % of Asking Price - 96.6%). I have been comparing sales from the last 6months to previous sales on the same streets (never the exact same house, but good enough for a comp and an average) in the past 10-20 years (via county clerk website or datauniverse on mycentraljersey.com), and I am seeing homes selling on average at around 2004-2005 prices (96% off list). The problem personally is that I can afford homes in these areas if they are selling at 2002-2003 prices (with interest rate holding steady at around 5%). So, if I wait for next spring/summer, maybe prices will come down to 2002/3 levels, but if interest rates happen to rise then these homes/streets will still out of reach.
STU - Shore, thx.
Actually my realtor says all written offers lapse after 3 or 4 biz days anyway, but he told them our interest still stands and left it at that but we have heard nothing from them since even though my realtor reaches out to them every week to check.
I dont like being in that position either but if we tell them to F off, they just might do that and i think we really like the place. If they do come back to the table, i will have every opportunity to think about our original offer and change it or decide to not submit a fresh one altogether… we’ll see.
[193] lisoosh
That is soooo absolutely correct. I did the SAHD thing for a short time and it was miserable. I knew I could not go to employers with that story (and it wasn’t actually correct as I left an employer in another state to go back to school). And forget about having a life while doing this. No dads around and the moms look at you like a flu virus.
I got lucky in that I found a part-time gig where the opposite question was going to be asked, e.g., why do you want part time? Now daddydom was to my advantage and helped me get the job (being ridiculously more qualified than the applicant pool helped too, I learned later). From there, I was able to transition back to full time, which I know I must keep because at my age, once I am out, I might as well hang out a shingle.
d2b
Where is this zip in bucks… 18942??
Prices plunged 49% yoy and they sold about 24 homes last year judging by last qtr.
I have the report in pdf called Trend Economic and Market Watch Report q2 09. For SNJ/PA/Del
they break down performance by county and then by zips.
I love spending play time with the baby (2 yr old) but honestly i would internally combust if i had to spend all day with her. Trying to mop while she is hanging on my legs crying at my face.
No way. There is only so much of that i can take before i jumped out the 2nd story window just to get a moment of silence.
Veto - It’s real estate, not shoes. One year isn’t enough to observe the full macro effect.
As d2b noted, volume and type of sales is crucial. Foreclosures, the type of sellers (distressed, investors etc.) the type of people who bought in, how bubblicious was the area, etc.
Anybody familiar with green cards?
I may have to write an offer letter to get a friend from Romania a job. Last year he paid a service to get him work $1,000. When one gets a green card for summer work, it it open ended or does he need to go back on a certain date?
Veto That says:
September 24, 2009 at 2:16 pm
“I love spending play time with the baby (2 yr old) but honestly i would internally combust if i had to spend all day with her. Trying to mop while she is hanging on my legs crying at my face.
No way. There is only so much of that i can take before i jumped out the 2nd story window just to get a moment of silence.”
And yet those of us who do that for years 24/7 voluntarily don’t get nearly enough respect.
John’s dream life.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=solr1W5idNY
203 -You are describing a work permit, not a green card.
If you think 18930 is nice, you have very low standards. Aren’t year over year stats pretty useless especially in towns where there is no uniformity in the housing stock? You can still find an abandoned trailer in upper bucks, next to a 20 acre horse farm.
Veto-
It’s pretty far north on the map, right below Quakertown. These area are right on the fringe of development and it would not surprise me if the bulk of 07/08 sales were new construction. Then with no new development you may be left with existing home stock, foreclosures, and builder closeouts. Just a guess of course.
My brother’s are is similar. He’s about 55 miles west of Philadelphia.
206-
How long is a work permit?
lisoosh says:
September 24, 2009 at 2:23 pm
Veto - It’s real estate, not shoes. One year isn’t enough to observe the full macro effect.
As d2b noted, volume and type of sales is crucial. Foreclosures, the type of sellers (distressed, investors etc.) the type of people who bought in, how bubblicious was the area, etc.
l: vito wants to kill someone, but doesn’t want the blood on his hands; he has to spend more time in the trenches and less time discussing it here….
vito: you think I am a dick? You need to take my d!ck example and stick it to one of your sellers….in action though…you treat them will all the respect in the world to their face….if your realtor doesn’t follow your instructions, dump them….
18942 is Ottsville. Actually mostly stone homes, ranches, still some trailers, a few developments but still not many. some scary roads that go nowhere. quite hick looking but fairly connected to Doylestown and NJ–famous for its garden tour. Again, homes are so all over the place that they are impossible to compare year over year unless you pick specific ones.
whole life isn’t an asset it’s a tax dodge
for older people whose assets exceed the estate tax exclusion
funnel money in and pay fees to the insurance company instead of taxes to Uncle Sam
i have an awesome idea. lets all write off and completely ignore any news or stats that doesnt point directly to an immediate housing collapse or pending economic destruction.
Starting now.
Ready… Go.
oh my god
i’ve been following this blog for about 6 months and the sky is still about to fall
imminently
in may, clotpoll, or whatever his name is now, predicted that the sh*t would hit the fan in early june
still waiting
why is it all or nothing?
well priced houses will sell, over priced ones won’t.
some houses will be foreclosed on, some won’t.
things will be flat for awhile.
buy now, wait, whatever.
Actually, i dont know bucks at all, have been there once - so i have no idea about the stats.
And you bring up good points about new construction and low sales transactions - foreclosures not so much.
But i do know trenton since its right down the road.
And i can tell you this: there is a huge difference in home price performance between my town and trenton, not just yoy but also over multiple years.
Since peak, Trenton has collapsed - I wouldnt be surprised if it was 50%. My neighborhood has held pretty steady - maybe 10% correction - thats a guess but it has strengthened recently. Thats not a prediction. Thats not my realtor talking. that is what i see. I would assume you would see the same in Newark/Elizabeth compared to Westfield/Cranford.. I dont know for sure just a guess.
But lets ignore that and focus on trenton. It just fits better - even though 90% of us would never choose to live there.
“vito wants to kill someone, but doesn’t want the blood on his hands”
Chi, u may be onto something there.
But the sellers or my realtor are not the problem and the market doesnt know nice from d!ck, it just knows price.
My frustration is with the market and price.
Its like 98-2000, almost every single nasdaq stock was up what? 400%… I held all my eggs in worldcom… the only stock that traded flat during that period. Fkcng hell. Flash fwd 8 yrs. US Re collapses 30% - my town is up 3%. You have to laugh.
Thx for the advice though. i think there was some sincerity in there and i’ll take it.
Veto,
This isnt personal and everyone knows i often disagree with Chifi, but…
vito wants to kill someone, but doesn’t want the blood on his hands; he has to spend more time in the trenches and less time discussing it here
I agree with his statement here. Housing collapses are slow messy business and dont always pan out like you want them to.
I’m not ready to get blood on my hands (i want to bath in the stuff in an olympic sized pool) and am not trying to get tomorrows price today, so am staying out of the market completely for probably 2 -3 years.
The government and FED are trying to prop up housing at all costs. This is of course going to heavily distort the market for years to come.
Play hardball or sit on the bench. Either choice is fine, but it seems you are mentally caught between the 2.
*215 Did you not say a couple of weeks ago you were starting to see some prices in your area at 2003/04 levels? Now you are saying your town is atarting to stregthen? Just asking.
“Play hardball or sit on the bench”
Ket, i appreciate the advice but like i said to chi this doesnt exist. The realtors filter the discussion and the market listens. The price is the only thing that gets conveyed and the seller doesnt make the final decision - the market does.
Holding at my initial offer is all i can do short of doing a drive by where i curse out the sellers to lower the price,
which my wife would never allow anyway.
*214 How do you determine well priced? well priced based on what? On a give away tax credit? on artifically low rates? On the gov’t buying or backing most mtgs? How can that be good? As far as the end of the world, well the gov’t keeps moving the goal posts.
Just asking,and just saying.
215 - so are you hoping that your town will correct as much as trenton? unless it was overrun with investors during the bubble, and has schools no one would want to send their kids to, its unlikely. or it will take much much longer.
With the 8k bribe and the easing in credit since last year, I think it was better to be a qualified buyer in ‘08 than now.
*213 Why?? And who is doing that here? just asking.
“i have an awesome idea. lets all write off and completely ignore any news or stats that doesnt point directly to an immediate housing collapse”
Veto,
Who said it would be immediate? Case-Chiller indicates approx 20% off peak in the NY area. However, you know your area better than a stat. Your town, section of town, street, house may be immune. It seems to be the rule rather than the exception. If that’s the case, step up and buy. If you’re right, congrats. If you’re wrong, you overpaid by 20-25%. What’s the big deal? Win some, lose some.
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.html
Cheery thought for the day (but not news to NJREReport readers)
“US May Face ‘Armageddon’ If China, Japan Don’t Buy Debt”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33004753
LTLV, I said something that was very different than that but you distort every post so im not surprised.
i saw lowering of prices and activity starting on Sept 1 which was what i reported. Somehow you translated this into 2003 prices.
But i also posted a bunch of listings of recent sales at 2005 prices but thats when the conversation stopped with you.
Lurker till now- that’s not a tax dodge. The tax still gets paid.
A dodge formerly was switzerland.
*197 If interest rates rise, the prices will come down further.
Veto -
Trenton probably is crashing, nothing very exciting there anyway (duh).
Ewing has dropped considerably but probably less. Lawrenceville has dropped, but less again. Princeton is in the twilight zone of dreamers where nothing is moving. South Brunswick has dropped but is still delusional. The Indians affect the corridor as they are still moving in…..
What town is sticky exactly?
*181 Maybe your friends are in denial, or maybe they are just stupid. I go with stupid. Just saying.
“US May Face ‘Armageddon’ If China, Japan Don’t Buy Debt”
Nom,
Not a problem. We continue to disguise our printing via purchases thru primary dealers. In addition to this, we increase our swap lines with foreign cb’s. Subsequently, indirect bidders are the large % of buyers. Who needs the Japanese and Chinese?
“Your town may be immune. If that’s the case, step up and buy.”
BC, look, im not saying prices wont go down in the future - thats anyone’s guess. Im saying that they haven’t, and that is based on the empirical evidence.
I would think that a thoughtful discussion would be created about some nj towns being down 10% and other nj cities being down 30% or more, thereby creating an average 20% decline in the cs metro area but the mere mention of anything but apocolpyse has some people on the defensive - literaly.
Relax people - I am not lawrence yun. Im just trying to foster an accurate discussion of the market. That seems impossible - very few here will even participate in the discussions unless it leads directly to a total collapse.
*177 If there is no contract, than you perhaps are missing the entire point. Yeah the house is great, yeah everybody loves it, wow look at all the traffic, and yet there are no offers?
And as far as everything selling was not your last example whn I asked over a year old, when I posed this question a few weeks back?
Not arguing with you, just saying, I really am.
And in a manipulated housing market that our wonderful gov’t has created, how can you or anyone buy with any kind of confidence? And of course NJ’s boogyman taxes.
If you want to buy, than buy, but your self flagellation, day after day, has to be painful for you I would think.
And if you do buy go FHA, and keep your money.
“The Indians affect the corridor as they are still moving in…”
Lish, according to some this is simply not happening.
i however believe that it is happening and has alot to do with the recent price stabilization - i dont have stats to back it up but 2010 census will show this im pretty sure.
BC Bob,
The goal is to debase our currency and induce inflation. One should be careful what they wish for.
I imagine that if the Fed wasn’t printing and the Treasury wasn’t spending, this economy would look a whole lot worse. The $64,000 question is how long can this last?
veto [234],
Total collapse? No. IMO, we will only retrace the entire bubble. That said, the process is slow as molasses. It’s a tugboat moving a super tanker. Govt intervention works to stem the decline for a period of time. However, govt intervention will not reverse the process. If you are not inclined to be very patient, then just buy. You are starting to sound like my bil, losing a bet because some 20 yr old fumbled.
Veto,
Relax people - I am not lawrence yun. Im just trying to foster an accurate discussion of the market. That seems impossible - very few here will even participate in the discussions unless it leads directly to a total collapse.
Point taken;
Speaking for myself, and having dug through substantial amounts of historical and recent data, i am of the opionion that they are all coming down, its just a matter of time and the value of the dollar.
If you look at boston in the last bubble, similar behavior was seen there as you are describing. Some areas remained strong well into the bubble only to fall in the end.
The higher end areas will generally hold out longer simply because there are generally more financial resources available to delay the inevitable.
It sounds as though you are in a higher income area and so could expect to see delayed effects.
in he current bubble the delay is being exacerbated due to the government influence in the housing market.
For most people i would say this is most likely not the best time to buy due to the entire system being in flux. There are of course exceptions, but for a home purcahse based on time sensitive factors such as a divorce/ relocation etc, are probably the only ones that generally make sense in the end. even in those cases there are string arguments for just renting.
I think a lot of the home purchases we are seeing are “momentum” purchases. That % of buyers who are generally unaware of the broader market except for what the NAR is proselytizing at the moment and have access to financing.
That’s Veto- #231.
Veto,
Wife and I thought the same as you in Montclair about a year ago. Then we watched as homes in the area finally started losing value. Recent uptick is more likely attributable to FTHB credit. The subsidies can’t go on forever…Or can they?
Speaking of whole life policies they are now being bought up (while the policy holder is alive) and securitized. There is $26 trillion life insurance policies in force in the United States alone.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/06/business/06insurance.html?_r=2&hp=&pagewanted=all
I ran across this scam about 15 years ago, they were called viatical settlement back then but weren’t securtized. AS they say what is old eventually becomes new again.
No worries, hope is on the way…..
http://www.nj.gov/recovery/
*233 So Indians over pay?
241 - No they are frugal as far as i can tell.
Haven’t you ever seen one haggle at the car dealer? They sit there for 10 hours for $200 reduction in price.
But they have jobs and are new to the neighborhood so they buy homes.
Stan @ 226 -
life insurance proceeds are not subject to the income tax
so …
older person has 1 million over the exclusion to get rid of or pay 45% estate tax on
thaht person gifts the premiums to their heirs using the annual gift limits
the heirs own the policy and collect the money outside the estate after death
LTLV @ 220 -
“How do you determine well priced? well priced based on what? On a give away tax credit? on artifically low rates? On the gov’t buying or backing most mtgs? How can that be good? As far as the end of the world, well the gov’t keeps moving the goal posts.”
I agree - the goal posts are moving left and right. So do you wait 10 years for them to stop moving or do you just get in the game?
No right answer, just food for thought
Just asking,and just saying.
* 242 OK, Whatever. I am done, back to occasional lurking.
I close with this. Take a look at the last housing bust in the early 90’s ugly, ugly, ugly.
oh LTLV, you can’t leave now :)
that “ugly, ugly, ugly” bust was followed by a pretty, pretty, pretty boom
even if you missed the boom, you still did great if you owned bust to bust
you just don’t want to own boom to bust
and i think we can agree that now is not a boom
“So do you wait 10 years for them to stop moving or do you just get in the game?”
The whistle was blown in 2006/07. Game, set, match. New game, try to resuscitate the dead.
“even if you missed the boom, you still did great if you owned bust to bust”
Water underneath a bridge. Hell, I owned bust to boom.
Kettle,
This is a good point:
” Some areas remained strong well into the bubble only to fall in the end.
The higher end areas will generally hold out longer simply because there are generally more financial resources available to delay the inevitable.”
In the most desirable towns if there wasn’t a huge amount of peak buying, there are a lot of strong hands holding on. At the same time, low rates are allowing a lot of eager beavers who have saved to try to buy their way into town. For example, Basking Ridge prices haven’t seemed to have declined much, and I saw lots of Chinese families touring open houses, probably trying to deploy cash and cheap mortgages to upgrade schools for their kids.
After the early batch of buyers get exhausted, mortgage rates rise, and maybe more sellers start trickling out, then maybe home prices move down further.
More vulnerable are towns a rung or two down the ladder, particularly where there were a number of homes bought or refinanced during the market peak, and aren’t famously good towns. Hillsborough seems vulnerable on that count.
So far, houses for sale in such towns seem to be accumulating, it will be interesting to see if by next year, there will be even more, and more motivated sellers.
Since I haven’t ended up buying anything in 2009, I’m hoping that Spring/Summer 2010 turns out even better in terms of selection/px, though perhaps not in mortgage rates. Which is fine with me, because I’m stronger in liquid assets than most, while being more timid to take out a massive mortgage than most other folks, I think. So patience should be rewarded (for my situation), unless mortgage rates get driven down to 3% sparking yet another house bubble.
One other item, 1990 will be turn out to be a dress rehearsal compared to this charade.
BC Bob @ 247, 248 -
I’m sorry, I have no idea what you’re saying.
“resuscitate the dead” = never own real estate again?
“water underneath a bridge . . . i owned bust to boom” = i made mine but nobody else will ever make anything again?
help me understand
sl, when you get up, read this. A while ago, you were off on a periodic b/tch rant about mapping, and I went. Never told you thanks. It has made a difference.
lurker [251],
“resuscitate the dead” = never own real estate again?”
No, the millions that are underwater.
“water underneath a bridge . . . i owned bust to boom”
Who cares boom to boom or boom to bust or bust to bust. This whole blog concentrates on this bubble. I was a RE bull fron 1985-2004. Who cares? Water underneath a bridge.
from.
Off to U-2.
Are these comps possible? The houses are in Weehawken. They sold in August 2009.
47 47th Street – Sold for 1.7% less than 2006 price and 87% above 2004 price.
41 Cooper Place – Sold for 96% above 2003 price.
Not a problem. We continue to disguise our printing via purchases thru primary dealers. In addition to this, we increase our swap lines with foreign cb’s. Subsequently, indirect bidders are the large % of buyers. Who needs the Japanese and Chinese?
BC,
Shawn Carter to my ears.
lurkerd,
Are you pret?
256 - Lukerd, No thats not possible. Prices are down.
Down i tell you.
Stop lying.
Thats new construction and it doesnt count.
Go away.
lurker,
my take on BC bob:
water underneath a bridge
History rhymes not repeats.
“resuscitate the dead”
Assuming we end up with a version of the japanese lost decade, then the 2006/7 peak in housing has a good chance of ending up as a HISTORICAL peak in real terms.
We would either need a massive population boom or anoether supernova credit bubble to approach such a peak again. The peak is dead and only a necromancer has a hope of seeng it again. (note: in real terms. The peak may be surpassed in nominal terms)
“the goal posts are moving left and right. So do you wait 10 years for them to stop moving or do you just get in the game?”
Lurker, This is good question.
Not just that prices are going down and that is final - but when? and how far down? and how will inflation counteract it? and what other govt backstops will reverse the slide? or not? or for how long? and what about demographics/population shifts? and how will strong areas perform vs weak areas? To what extent will rate rise counteract the price drops? etc.
We need more of this.
Thats my opinion.
[241] qwerty
Didja notice that virtually every slice of the pie represented a core dem constituency?
Kettle, If NAR would release their historical median home price data by town, we could have a field day cutting the data.
I think that would be one of our more interesting research efforts.
But they protect that data in fort knox.
Only SAS could penetrate.
Wonder what this will do for CRE prices? I’m sure they aren’t the only one.
Citigroup Said to Consider Shrinking Branch Network
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asXke4YX.X3Q
Honey, most ladies the guys make all the money and has it direct deposit into the ladies checking account and he gets an allowance. God is paying us back for the 1950’s. Lady can take out 400 for back to school shopping, guy gets 4 dollars.
lisoosh says:
September 24, 2009 at 1:13 pm
John/Renter -
1. Where both partners work, the women still pick up the lions share of the work at home. Makes it much harder to travel. When my last job sent me abroad I had a ball - no cooking, housekeeping, private room, no crying kids. It was like a vacation. Took me two weeks before I left to get everything in place so my husband could cope -from organizing babysitters to precooking meals and making sure the bills were all paid.
(And no, my husband isn’t useless).
2. I think most men find being “kept” emasculating. They have trouble putting together social networks when they are at home too - no “dads” groups in place of “moms” groups.
Emasculated man does nothing for the relationship, except for a few dominatr!x types I suppose or masoch!stic men.
I find that my marriage is more balanced when I make my own money. I don’t particularly enjoy being a kept woman, even if I do all the work at home.
I think that we have a quad-fecta that is going to cause a tumble in the housing market.
1. FHA dips below minimum, must tighten lending standards or go to congress for money. Decides to tighten lending standards.
2. FED must stop the massive purchases of MBS (80% of the market to date).
Will phase out purchases with last batch going through in January.
3. Housing Subsidy will expire. Possibly this year.
4. Forclosures are mounting.
So far everything is pointing for all four to occur at the same time come spring of 2010 which will make it as bad (or good depending on perspective) of a year in real estate as it was last year.
Expect further declines.
Lurker- Tax still gets paid, this is why the govt allow vehicles such as ILITS. There is no tax dodge. Every penny owed is paid.
Any words of advice,
currently have a business in a mini-plaza. Owner stopped paying mortgage and is now mia. Rent is pre-paid till end of year, lease ends in december. Landlord has 2 months security deposit, essentially paid up till february. My business is seasonal, only need space untill the end of tax season (may 2010). What can I do???!!!
Oh my god Stan, you’re driving me nuts.
The beneficiary does not pay income tax.
http://insurance.freeadvice.com/insurance_help.php/101_155_435.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_insurance#Taxation_of_life_insurance_in_the_United_States
http://www.benefithouse.com/faq/life_insurance/taxation.html
and so on, and so on, and so on . . .
i think I may be in mod . . .
Stan - the beneficary does not pay income tax on life insurance proceeds in the US.
Just look it up yourself or give me a link that says I’m wrong. I included links but I think that put me in moderation.
It is an estate tax dodge. That’s why LI is considered a finacial planning tool.
VETO,
We could in deed have a field day, but that would be a significant effort on the level of a grad thesis with that much data. WOuld love to do it though.
Nicholas.266
Agree but with a caveat. I think the subsidy will be extended and increased. Too much rides on them keeping the market propped up.
I see the the quadfecta falling into place closer to 2011 when the big wave of prime and alt-a loans start to reset.
Though the USD may deserve to crater, I am not sure what other currency is superior to it? Euro? Yen? Yuan? Really??I think they all have similar issues. As for gold, which I do own, can’t that also be manipulated and even “discovered”?
Since, if push came to shove, the Us has copious supplies of coal, natural gas, capability to produce nuclear and a lot of food, are we not in pretty good shape?
I was out & about in the car today, and I heard someone on the radio blame the housing numbers on….
1- the threatened end of the tax credit.
2- the inventory drying up in the low-end.
3- new appraisal rules.
4- sunspot activity.
OK the sunspot thing I just made up……but the other 3 items THEY just made up.
SO we have a bunch of smart people here…
how do Veto and I manage to get our hands on town level data?????
SAS,
itching for a new covert assignment?
1987
though the USD may deserve to crater, I am not sure what other currency is superior to it?
a basket currency with a shiny metal component
271. It is hard to tell what is real these days. Often times I am pretty sure we are being manipulated. But what do I know?
52. The savers really got hammered this time out. Sucks to be you I guess.
#
Will V. says:
September 23, 2009 at 8:46 am
Hey guys, I have been on this board for many years and I just love to read many of your comments but I have not posted much. I need a little advice since I am a first time home buyer.
I just recently made an offer for a home to purchase at 345K with seller paying 10K of closing on a home asking 350K. The seller accepted. 3.5 weeks later the appraisal came back saying the home is worth 330K. Now I have no money for closing which is why I had made that deal for seller paying closing. what are the chance a seller will take a 15K haircut? I looked at their previous sale at they bought the home for 164K in the year 2000. basement is finished but bathroom and kitchen is not updated. Plus they already closed on a home last week. I am just wondering if people are that closed minded that they will kill the deal with a 15K cut in price, especially when they bought it for half the price they are asking for.
#
RUN! FAST AND FAR!
seriously man, be smart. walk away.
what the hell happened in pittsburgh today?
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09266/1000288-53.stm
WTF happened to Penn Sta tonight? Is it people taking the new shuttle to the U-2 concert? Whoever fcuked up needs to be shot
Veto-
Ket-
Hmmm…..historical median home price data by town ? I not sure NAR even tracks it at town level.
What might be possible is to select a town that best represents the target demographic, and see if any local realtor is tracking sales. Some of the realtor’s web-sites give historical data on the areas they “farm”
In a town with a wide variety of home styles, I don’t like median sales price (half above, half below). Also, what time frame are you analyzing ??
It’d be nice to have Same Home Sales in a specific town, over a given time period.
Maybe Jeff Otteau has this stashed in a file cabinet somewher. Then again….maybe not.
albani: I am going to get the English translated copy of the Kanun of Leka……..just from the pieces I’ve seen it is awesome…..it a clot kind of way….
make money says:
September 23, 2009 at 12:11 pm
Sean,
My daughter is 4 yrs old. She’s fluent in Mandarin.(10k per year) Little Dani was born in Hong Kong. Everyone has dual citizenships.
fluent in mandarin at 4? who is fluent in English at 4?
damn. really missed some doom and gloom yesterday on here. love those days.
(they usually are also devoid of idiot cowards frank and bi.)
regarding “happy” … my wife was class optimist. i am for in the mold of guys on here like Clot, Make Money, Veto and Comrade.
we’re a great balance. eager to meet the group at some point where there’s a GTG near Bucks County.
Home resales dipped unexpectedly last month, falling 2.7 percent from a month earlier, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday, reversing steady monthly gains since April.
Hook up a 14 AMP, 2000 VOLT line to a f*cking corpse and flip the switch. Just becasue it starts flailing all over the f*cking place doesn’t mean it’s alive.
I’m damned for putting down 20% back in 2004. Why would anyone in their right down put down more than the FHA minimum going forward.
a) it is a house you would like to stay in, if possible, for the duration of the 30 yr mortgage
b) more $ down = lower mortgage payments for the duration of the mortgage, so that if one of the two loses a job, you can still live comfortably on that salary
of course, the huge IF is that i’d only put down 30-40% IF you still can have a 40-50k cushion of ‘emergency liquid’ in the bank.
d2b:
here
https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplay.do
#284 Laughing! Gary, that was even better than Clot and that’s saying a lot!
Another day closer to oblivion.
Fascist Amerika waking up now to the fact that demand for housing is totally exhausted.
Still, the dopes try to transfuse the cadaver.
Lurker-
The proceeds from the insurance policy, in a trust, pay the estate tax.
My point is that the IRS still gets paid. They don’t care where it comes from as long as they get their pound o flesh
“how do Veto and I manage to get our hands on town level data?????”
Cash in an unmarked envelope usually works in NJ
Kettle1 - All roads lead to Trenton. The Star Ledge used to publish it here.
http://www.starledger.com/str/indexpage/homesales/default.asp
Sean,
to really put things in perspective we would need data back to about 85.
Shore,
Which diner do i meet the unnamed individual at with said envelope? And why not an apple pie. My wife makes a lovely apple pie ;)
Then again couldnt we just have SAS blackmail someone? that would much more entertaining.
re: stay at home mom discussion. LOVE the irony, buncha “working” men who spend an insane amount of “work” time posting on a blog, characterizing stay at home moms as margarita making play date divas. Meanwhile, 9pm and this is the 2nd chance I’ve had to read, let alone post.
Rock on.
re:#292 Kettle1 email rgebeloff@starledger.com
and ask from what dept in State Gov they get the sales data for NJ By the Numbers.
The State has to provide it for a nominal fee per OPRA.
“Often times I am pretty sure we are being manipulated”
no.. you don’t say…
(hint hint.. you’ve been pumped & dumped).
SAS
Stan at 290 -
Did you even read my post at 243? You’re talking about LI in a trust, I’m talking about LI held by beneficiaries.
Chi 279 - I have no idea why NJT started event service to the Meadowlands if they didn’t think anyone would use it. Let’s just throw everyone on the already packed rush hour trains.
My 6:18 train normally stops at Secaucus and I almost missed it because of the mass of humanity trying to make it down the single staircase to our track. Ugh!
Stan, cont’d -
And actually the ILITS are meant to avoid estate tax as well.
a baby born at 19.2 lbs! wow.
i deliverd a couple babies here and there in my life, all around 7.0 lbs.
one time, out in Quezon City in the Philippines.
next thing I know, i hear some huffing and puffing….
i had to roll up my sleeves and do it on the spot.
needless to say, i missed my sightseeing trip of the La Mesa Dam.
SAS
300!
SHore
Can you e-mail me please? Grim can you give shore my e-mail (gmail) address?
SAS,
When were you in the Philippines? I find myself here and there every once in a while?
Duck
Sean 294,
thanks!!!
Stu,
TONIGHT WE DINE IN HELL!!!!!
It is all in response to your post said that insurance is a tax dodge, it is not. There is no income tax on LI.
The whole point of an ILIT is to avoid the estate tax.
268.stan says:
September 24, 2009 at 5:32 pm
Lurker- Tax still gets paid, this is why the govt allow vehicles such as ILITS. There is no tax dodge. Every penny owed is paid.
stan: lurker is correct that there is no incidence of ownership by the insured with an ILIT, so there is no estate tax implications; lurker is also correct that insurance proceeds are not taxed in the US, so the trust works well….
Veto That says:
September 24, 2009 at 1:44 pm
This is bucks county PA,
this zip… 18955 collapsed prices 44% yoy and prices are selling at 85% of ask. Sales volume in that zip collapsed 75% over the year.
Meanwhile zip 18930 in Bucks prices rose 7% yoy - volume increased 200% and homes are closing at 96% of ask.
veto, as a bucks resident, can you direct me to the website where you got this? would love to know so i can see how my area is doing …
Asia down 2.5%
(back to movie watching…)
sl
…my circadian rhythm is screwed.
sl
Yikes, sure thing. I’ll try to post it later.
Read the entire report from Amherst only available here:
http://multifamilyinvestor.com/exclusive-how-did-she-come-up-with-seven-million/