Thu 8 Oct 2009
Home Prices To Recover … By 2020 (or 2030)
Categories: Foreclosures , Housing Bubble , National Real EstateFrom Reuters:
The Flood of Foreclosures Shows No Sign of Ebbing
Every 13 seconds in America, there is another foreclosure filing. That’s the rhythm of a crisis that threatens to choke off hopes for a recovery in the U.S. housing market as it destroys hundreds of billions of dollars in property values a year.
There are more than 6,600 home foreclosure filings per day, according to the Center for Responsible Lending, a nonpartisan watchdog group based in Durham, North Carolina. With nearly two million already this year, the flood of foreclosures shows no sign of abating any time soon.
If anything, the country’s worst housing downturn since record-keeping began in the late 19th century may only get worse since foreclosures, which started with subprime borrowers, have now moved on to the much bigger prime loan market on the back of mounting unemployment.
In congressional testimony last month Michael Barr, the Treasury Department’s assistant secretary for financial institutions, said more than 6 million families could face foreclosure over the next three years.
…
The Center for Responsible Lending says foreclosures are on track to wipe out $502 billion in property values this year.That spillover effect from foreclosures is one reason why Celia Chen of Moody’s Economy.com says nationwide home prices won’t regain the peak levels they reached in 2006 until 2020.
In states hardest-hit by the housing bust, like Florida and California, the rebound will take until 2030, Chen predicted.
“The default rates, the delinquency rates, are still rising,” Chen told Reuters. “Rising joblessness combined with a large degree of negative equity are going to cause foreclosures to increase,” she added.
Anyone doubting that the recovery in U.S. real estate prices will be long and hard should take a look at Japan, Chen said.
Prices there are still off about 50 percent from the peak they hit 15 years ago.
From Bloomberg:
Home Sellers in U.S. Cut Prices by $28.4 Billion, Trulia Says
U.S. home sellers cut their asking prices by a total of $28.4 billion to attract buyers as the real estate recovery stalled, Trulia Inc. said.
The average discount was 10 percent as of Oct. 1, the San Francisco-based real estate data provider said today. Homes listed for more than $2 million were cut the most, with owners taking an average of 14 percent off the original price. Luxury homes accounted for 25 percent of all of the reductions.
Sales of existing U.S. homes unexpectedly fell in August for the first time since March, according to the National Association of Realtors, signaling the recovery will be slow to gain speed. The median price dropped 12.5 percent from August 2008.
“Consumers have to be slashing the prices of the homes they list,” Pete Flint, chief executive officer of Trulia, said in an interview. There’s a “significant inventory” of homes for sale. “You’re still going to see further price declines before the market stabilizes in 2010.”
Half of the 10 states with the highest percentage of discounted homes are in the Northeast: Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Hampshire and New Jersey. A third of residences for sale in those states were reduced at least once, Trulia said.
From the Star Ledger:
Put N.J.’s farm preservation program out to pasture
Hing Lum was chased out of China at a young age by the Maoists who had seized his hard-working father’s farm. So he has little good to say about the communists.
But he’ll give the commies credit for one thing: At least when they steal your land they’re man enough to admit it.
“With the communists, they just took it,” said Lum. “They were honest about it: ‘It’s not yours! It’s mine.’ ”
Lum can’t say the same for the New Jersey Legislature. Back in 2004, when they passed the Highlands Act, the legislators took control of Lum’s 100-acre farm in Mount Olive but left him with the title and the tax bill. Prior to the Act, Lum had a piece of prime real estate within commuting distance of New York City for which he says he had been offered upwards of $10 million. But on Aug. 11, 2004, he had what amounted to one building lot, perhaps two if the state lets him.
Of course he can always farm it. Or so say the environmentalists. There are two problems with that. One is that Lum is not a farmer. He’s an executive with an MBA in finance. He bought the land in 1985 as an investment, hoping to build a nest egg for his kids.
In other words, he’s a capitalist. And that’s not a good thing to be here in the people’s republic of New Jersey.
From CNBC:
Manhattan Rents to Drop Further: Report
Manhattan rents are expected to continue their fall until New York City’s economy picks up and fortunes improve on Wall Street, according to a quarterly report issued by a New York realty firm.
The average Manhattan apartment rents for $3,759 per month, down 2 percent from the prior quarter and down 1 percent from a year earlier, according to the Prudential Douglas Elliman Manhattan quarterly rental report.
…
After a period of sharp declines over the past year, rental rates are now moving sideways, said Jonathan Miller, president and chief executive of Miller Samuel appraisers and the author of the report.
“It’s a mixed message,” Miller said. “It’s near-term stability, but there’s still a tremendous amount of weakness in the rental market,” he said.
From HousingWire:
Delayed REO Sales will Drive Down House Prices, Says John Burns
Despite recent projections that the housing market reached its trough and will recover in as little as 24 months, observers should expect a second leg down in what may shape up to be a “W”-shaped recovery, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
With some major declines behind the market thanks to increased demand in recent months, a second dive will ultimately depend on the level of continued government intervention, the consulting firm said in market commentary Wednesday.
…
According to recent Amherst Securities Group analysis, a shadow inventory of around 7m housing units, or 135% of a full year of existing home sales, is “destined to liquidate.” The backlog is due to high transition rates, low cure rates and a longer timeline for loan liquidation — in other words, loans continue to transition into the delinquency and foreclosure pipeline at a rapid pace, but are moving out at a very slow pace.
…
“Without continued government intervention, home prices will plummet, banks and the GSEs will continue to lose money, and the economy has virtually no chance of increasing overall employment in 2010,” John Burns Real Estate said.
From KYW Radio:
USPS Facility Closure Means Hundreds More Jobs Axed in S. Jersey
The US Postal Service is shutting down a Priority Mail facility in Gloucester County — and with it, wiping out nearly 600 jobs.
Officials with the USPS say they’re losing too much money to keep the Philadelphia Logistics and Distribution Center in Logan Township open.
So it’ll go dark in March of next year, and some 575 people will have to find new work.
And they’re not alone. County freeholder director Steve Sweeney says it’s particularly painful with the idling of the Sunoco refinery in Westville and its 400 employees:
“We get notice of close to 1000 jobs that are good jobs — they pay benefits, there are health benefits and pensions and decent salaries. These are real jobs that are going to be lost to this region, and it’s heartbreaking.”
Collapse all around us:
(ESPN, 10-8-09) “Former Manchester United chairman Martin Edwards, now an honorary life president at Old Trafford, has become the first voice at boardroom level to question the way the Glazer family run the club.
Since the American owners took control of United in 2005 the previously profitable Premier League club has accrued debts of around £700m and Edwards fears that financial turmoil could be ahead.
“It concerns me that the club are in so much debt,” Edwards said. “The club are not in control; that family are in control of the debt. I can understand where the fans are coming from with their concerns. The crunch time will come when they [the Glazers] exit. Will they saddle the club with the debt or just sell the club on for a profit because that’s all they are interested in? How will they leave the club?”
From the LA Times:
FHA may be setting up repeat of housing bubble, lawmakers worry
Reporting from Washington - In the wake of the mortgage meltdown, the Federal Housing Administration has emerged as a pillar of the still wobbly housing market — providing vital insurance that enables borrowers to qualify for loans with as little as 3.5% down.
This year alone the agency has backed nearly 2 million mortgages worth at least $328 billion. It insured 21.5% of all new mortgages last year, up from fewer than 6% in 2007.
Some lawmakers, however, worry that the FHA may be doing its job too well — enabling too many people with shaky finances to get loans, and in effect setting up a potential repeat of the housing bubble fueled in part by no-questions-asked subprime loans.
Recent numbers appear to underscore those concerns. The percentage of FHA loans that are delinquent or in foreclosure climbed to nearly 8% at the end of June, from about 5.5% in early 2006, according to the Mortgage Bankers Assn. And in the weeks ahead, its reserves for loan losses are projected to slip below federally mandated limits.
“It’s not the least bit implausible to be concerned about the ever-deteriorating performance of the FHA portfolio,” said UCLA finance professor Stuart Gabriel, director of the university’s Ziman Center for Real Estate. “The jury is out as to whether the FHA is going to need a government infusion.”
From WaPo:
About 10 percent of all mortgages in this country are scheduled to adjust in the next few years, with the numbers peaking in mid- to late 2011, according to First American CoreLogic. Those loans are worth about $1 trillion, and nearly 20 percent of the borrowers who have them are already seriously behind on their monthly payments.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/01/AR2009100105443.html
Paul/Grayson letter to the Senate on Bergabe. Paul/Grayson now playing hardball.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/20763550/Senate-Letter-on-Bernanke-Nomination
Gold & silver on the launching pad.
Just saying.
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/10/08/big-is-bad-again/
Simon Johnson is always a good read:
Big is Bad Again - Economix - NYT
“If we can update and apply Brandeis to finance and more broadly, we still have a chance to save the positive features of our American model.”
hey john boy, were you the one pumping up Great Neck, Long Island on her the other day?
http://www.newsday.com/long-island/nassau/teen-girl-brutally-beaten-in-burglary-at-great-neck-home-1.1508571
better get an alarm and a 9 mm …
“Ben says:
October 7, 2009 at 7:36 pm
Gold at an all time high, my silver went up 45%, mining stocks have gone up more than 400% in the past 11 months. At some point, you’d think people would stop badmouthing precious metals.”
Ben,
When the pundits cross the line and start advising to buy, please wake me up. I will be happy to kick it out to these market timers.
“That spillover effect from foreclosures is one reason why Celia Chen of Moody’s Economy.com says nationwide home prices won’t regain the peak levels they reached in 2006 until 2020.”
Very simple. If you are lucky to get a bid, hit it. Get the hell out.
It’s gonna be a long walk home.
Foreclosures, which started with subprime borrowers, have now moved on to the much bigger prime loan market on the back of mounting unemployment.
Not true for the desirable towns in North Jersey. I still gasp and chuckle when I open the new listings I receive. Asking prices are not too far from peak so a lot of pretenders are still buying. Ask anyone on this board who has been house shopping lately. Anything in the 400s is still dank smelling dreck. You have to approach something close to a 6 tag that would be considered a nice home. And by nice, I mean walking in and living there without having to do immediate surgery. Be prepared to dish out around $4000/month in PITI and hope that the furnace and water heater hold out so you can catch your breath.
“It’s a mixed message,” Miller said. “It’s near-term stability, but there’s still a tremendous amount of weakness in the rental market,” he said.
Sounds like Jim Cantore, describing the eye of the hurricane.
“hope that the furnace and water heater hold out so you can catch your breath.”
Gary,
“Woke up this morning
the house was cold
Checked the furnace
she wasn’t burnin’
Went out and hopped in my old Ford
Hit the engine
but she ain’t turnin’.
We’ve given each other some
hard lessons lately
But we ain’t learnin’
We’re the same sad story
that’s a fact
One step up and two steps back.”
A lot of people were concerned about October being the start of a new wave of foreclosures. It is still the beginning of the month but is there a way to see if this new foreclosure wave has started?
Gary
I still look for something for you regularly at the evil company. But all I see is sales. Could/would you do that?
“The average Manhattan apartment rents for $3,759 per month, down 2 percent from the prior quarter and down 1 percent from a year earlier”
Are kidding me, -1% and you’re calling this a recession?? Give me a break. Manhattan market is on fire.
Aussie unemployment fell from 5.8% to 5.7%. 40,000 jobs created in Sept.
Disclaimer- Don’t know if their tally is a CC of our BLS; Bullsh#t Labor Statistics?
#11 - Cindy - That was a good read. I’d like to think that there was a growing momentum against ‘too big to fail’, I fear it won’t get too far though.
BC Bob,
I was pumping gas on the NJ turnpike in the summer of 1984. Who drives in driving a blue, beat up Camaro but the man himself. I laughed, told him he wasn’t really who I thought he was… he hands me a promotional album of “Born in the USA” and signs it for me. I have more to the story, will tell you all about it sometime.
Chinese Dry Wall Lawsuits have begun.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/08/business/08drywall.html?_r=1&hp=&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1255003273-Q6zQxVY8XKxEtGPyB3rFVA
Class action lawsuits will be the death of (have destroyed) this great nation. Did you know that a Bridgewater councilman is suing Bridgewater and wants to get elected to somerset county freeholder in November? Bad etiquette, even for a republican.
22 Tosh - I know. Then you get this…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a7fAFtZGaGAk
Derivatives Bill’s Loophole May Exempt Most Firms, Gensler Says…
Loopholes - Barney Frank….
The same idiots who got us here are calling the shots…Do we even have a chance…?
I keep hoping they will be exposed. At least Bloomberg is writing about the possible problems with the legislation.
#15,
gary, totally agree with you, good towns, like Cranford, Westfield, etc.. are on fire. Meanwhile bad towns next door like Roselle are 75% off. It makes no sense especially since you can rent a similar home in a good town for a 50% of PITI.
“I was pumping gas on the NJ turnpike in the summer of 1984″
G-Man,
Time to get together.
There’s an opera on the Turnpike- Tonight.
“The same idiots who got us here are calling the shots…Do we even have a chance…?”
Cindy,
Depends upon which seat one takes?
Cindy,
Simple question; Got demand?
gary your a BC buyer right?
norwood,closter, old tappan,cresskill
that ’s for you .
“Delayed REO Sales will Drive Down House Prices, Says John Burns”
Total BS because of:
“There’s this huge demand on the part of first-time buyers and investors,” Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the Realtors group, said in an interview. “The demand for properties in fairly good condition exceeds the supply.”
29 - BC - “Got demand?” I have been with you all the way with that question…and…jobs, jobs, jobs.
Here’s another little tidbit:
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/10/07/capitol-hills-growing-divide-on-derivatives-rules/
“Capitol Hill’s Growing Divide on Derivatives Rules”
“Last week, Mr. Frank released a revised derivatives bill, which, unlike the original version, no longer called for O.T.C. trades to go through an exchange.”
Imagine that…Those lobbyists just don’t miss a beat…
#25 - Cindy - Do we even have a chance?
I hate to say ‘No’ because that’s just fatalistic and depressing. But No, we don’t.
FTFA;
Chris Whalen from the Inst. Risk Analytics;
Frank’s committee seems to be intent on gutting any meaningful reform.
Frank is an ‘anti-corporate’ front. He’ll do what he’s told but sing a song to keep the masses happy. How sad…
Never start your day by listening to Godspeed You! Black Emperor, it seriously colors everything after it.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091008/ap_on_bi_ge/us_retail_sales
More on “Got Demand?”
They ain’t seen nothin yet….
Merry Christmas…..
Cindy [32],
Frank is capitulating.
They should be traded on a exchange with daily settlements/margin requirements and settled in cash upon expiration.
Why would WS want this? It would cost them zillions to hold positions and there would be transparency. It’s easier to shoot for the moon and pass on any crash to taxpayers.
Tosh- put this on the last thread:
Tosh, have you looked at Bay Street Landing lately? Seems that some prices are starting to drop.
when dogs like axl, gnw, hig, f, bac, aig, etc. all do 1,000 to 2,000% returns in six months 45 to 45% ain’t too exciting. Heck I have plain old boring corporate bonds sitting on 100-300% gains.
BC Bob says:
October 8, 2009 at 7:58 am
“Ben says:
October 7, 2009 at 7:36 pm
Gold at an all time high, my silver went up 45%, mining stocks have gone up more than 400% in the past 11 months. At some point, you’d think people would stop badmouthing precious metals.”
#36 - lost - Thank You!
That’s so odd, as I was just thinking about SI and that area this morning on the bus in to the city.
Cindy [34],
It’s a tidal wave. Consumer credit has now declined 7 straight months, 10 out of the last 11. By far, the worst showing since the Fed has been tracking since the 1940’s. In an environment of declining jobs, lower avg hourly earnings and a shorter workweek, it’s a freakin disaster.
Get ready for a blitzkreig; fiscal stimulus. Maybe even a tax holiday.
John,
F, AIG, BAC. Simply shorts cashing in.
Congrats to everybody who bought the lows on these dogs.
J,
Name me the stocks/bonds that have all closed higher, yoy, for each of the last 8 years.
I’ll go to sleep now.
#1
Grim,
A n agent in Spring Lake keeps sending me listings in the Avon to Manasquan area, mainly from $800,000 to $1,200,000. Most of what she has sent us in the past 4 weeks has been price reductions.
Perhaps NJC or someone else with access to the Monmouth MLS can pull up some hard data for you to post.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hsgqYEb0bkIYZh00oZ4mN3eyBkKw
Shore - From your comment yesterday re ticket sales…
U.K. opposes Ticketmaster merger…
Actually everything I own. I got lucky, I only owned two common stocks in the last eight years. JP Morgan and a company that had a cash buy out in late 2007 where I took cash bought laddered CDs as I thought corporates, munis and stocks were overpriced and as the CDs matured I bought munis and corporates for pennies on the dollar Gold is a non-diversified spectulative trade that is high risk. Should only be 5-10% of portfolio. Gold is in the mania phase right now similar to housing spring of 2005. People then thought homes always went up, they don’t in fact the riskiest time to buy any asset is after a period of rapid appreciation. People don’t realize that in late 1999 when you bought stocks every single one of your friends slapped you on your back and said you were a going to be rich, in March 2009 when you bought stocks everyone said you were an idiot. You could have sold your gold last time it touched 1,000 bought stocks or bonds near bottom and got back into your gold at same price except with a 300% gain. BC you are beating a dead horse. I stoped talking about buying bonds weeks ago as the gravy train is over and easy money has been made. I firmly believe if you sell at the peak you sold too late. You are taking on huge risk buying gold at $1,050 as you have a lot of money in play for a small gain.
Gary, Frank,
Seems like only the number one towns are selling fast. Westfield and Basking Ridge, two towns with a train and near top schools. I think these are getting bought by eager savers with kids. Eventually this backlog of pent-up demand gets run down, but for now, they’re targeting the best schools and best commutes. Yet one notch down, and next door, very nice towns with good but not top schools like Warren and Scotch Plains have lots of houses sitting on the market since spring, with more inventory being added all the time.
Some of it is delusion, like a 4br 3.5 bath on half an acre listed at over $1mn, or my neighbor in Scotch Plains that initially listed their totally 1960s non-updated house 4/2.5 for $570k, which would have been optimistic in 2005.
Anyway, eventually I’ll be selling my house, a 4/3 bilevel in Scotch Plains, when I finally find a house worth upgrading to. I’m assuming it sells in the 400s, but nothing would surprise me.
Some on this forum suggest that at some point during the next 12 months, there will come a tipping point where there is a critical mass of forced sellers that will finally cause NJ price declines to catch up with other areas.
My main fear is that next spring I’ll be competing against government-subsidized bonus money from Wall St guys.
Frank, Remember when you sarcastically said “good luck” when i asked if my town would reduce my property taxes upon removal of the in-ground pool?
Well the town tax assessor called me back yesterday and confirmed that they indeed would.
$400 off the annual bill if we fill in the pool with dirt, permits required of course.
Cindy,
Ticketmaster has destroyed fans’ ability to enjoy concertgoing. I can’t say enough good things about Springsteen’s move towards paperless tickets (one has to show ID which has to match THE credit card used to buy the tickets — of course, there is a way around this, but I will not post because a bunch of SOB speculators will use it to exclude fans who want to buy tickets to go see a show).
Heard someone in Giants Stadium, Friday or Saturday, calling them Ticket B@$tard.
“I was pumping gas on the NJ turnpike in the summer of 1984″
It sounds like the beginning of a song on Nebraska, or maybe The River.
“government-subsidized bonus money from Wall St guys”
Hey, AW, give it a rest. Those poor saps need, actually deserve our help. The nation was built on the sweat of their brows — on the tennis lawns of Long Island — and thir spending in 5-star hotels, etc.
Dig in a little deeper to help. To see these guys have to downgrade to a Lexus is something this nation should not have to endure.
Enough selfishness, and lay back and think of your country — squeeling like a pig is only required if you are told to.
Veto,
If you fill it in, I would be inclined, were it I, to line the thing with a couple thicknesses of styrofoam insulating sheets (bottom and sides), so that a future owner could restore the thing, were they so interested. I would documebt every step of the process so you could prove to a future buyer how well the job was done and how, relatively and cheaply, it would be to restore the pool. I am assuming that it is gunite (or however it is spelled).
document, even
#46,
That’s great, How much will the permits and fill in cost you?
Also it depends how strict is your town, in my town, it’s a big no go.
What if we become like Europe, desirable areas near large cities become very expensive and the rest become ghetto.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Decrease to 10-Month Low
What if the nice towns are the leading indicator and the bad towns will follow?
“You are taking on huge risk buying gold at $1,050 as you have a lot of money in play for a small gain.”
J,
Not a problem, bought at 342, in 2003. Moved up my protection. There is a long way to go. Of course there will be pullbacks, shake out the weak/late longs. On a 5-10% pullback, close your eyes and buy.
It will be gold.com until approx 2015.
Pat - re Cranford kids at Westfield Temple, it wasn’t economic that they were “outsiders” - only that they lived and therefore went to other schools during the day. So the two kids from Cranford and the two from Scoth Plains didn’t get to become close friends with the 20 that were from Westfield.
Ok, today is the day I had called for an end of the recession. It is the first day of the Q3 earning season. Any company that has weathered the storm to this point is in good shape.
Gold has run up as a hedge in case the earnings numbers go south. So make sure you have your stops in place for the slide back down if numbers are good.
Yes there is a lot of unemployment, but inventories are low and need to be built up again. Retail will be ugly but not terrible. Oil prices will stay down as the shadow inventory comes off the parked tankers.
Overall, the main storm in over and the slow rebuild over the next 2 years will begin. I personally think the earnings numbers will be good. There will be some breakout surprises and anyone posting bad numbers without strong cash reserves (house builders, Ford, etc) will be toast.
wessex,
We are largely there now. Go to the rural areas, it can be Cumberland County, most of Delmarva, huge portions of Vermont and Upstate NY, Florida away from the Universities and desirable coastal areas, they are in essence rural ghettos. People are poor, the buildings are run down. there are few economic opportunities. Heck, take a drive out to Browns Mills, intp Center Homein South Toms River, the portion of Lake Cuomo west of Main St, Neptune City, yadda, yadda. The process is all around us.
“Gold has run up as a hedge in case the earnings numbers go south.
PGC,
Gold is not trading here as the result of a earnings hedge.
an
Shore, interesting idea, i never thought of that. I assume that if i cover it with dirt, they wont reduce my taxes since the permanent structure still remains but i’ll ask about that.
Frank, i dont really have any quuotes but im thinking to remove the pool concrete and liner with a big tractor and fill in the hole with rocks and dirt has got to cost a couple grand. I’m willing to pay up to 5k if need be. I want that thing out.
shore guy,
I meant aspirational towns closer to nyc, like the plainfields, bloomfield, clifton may become more ghetto as the cream moves to better towns. The divide between good and ok towns may get much wider.
“im thinking to remove the pool concrete and liner with a big tractor and fill in the hole with rocks and dirt”
Veto,
Can you arrange to get Frank into the hole first?
“inventories are low and need to be built up again”
PGC,
You may be right, but I don’t know that I am as sanguine as you. Inventories will only be built up if companies anticipate buying patterns to resume recent historical norms and I dontthink the will. The income is not there (and has not been for years) but now the credit “bridge” is not there either. I see “our crowd” pulling back and apprehensive, and we are principals or partners in thriving businessneses or similar positions (most of us are debt free) and have seen our income rise in real and nominal terms every year since before Clinton took office.
That said, we are not buying the things we used to. Listen to the conversations in the stands at sporting events, in line at the grocery store (heck, go to some stores in the working-class and poor areas near you) and look and listen. I don’t know that things have changed for 20 years but they have changed and I am not persuaded that people are going to rush back to their old spending patterns anytime soon.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703746604574460862022924926.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
PGC - I posted 34 on retailers - now this from WSJ….
“Retailers Same-Store Sales Top Estimates”
Go figure…higher than expected same-store sales…
Did they expect -0-?
They have cut the inventory and work force, no doubt. My prediction was a turn around in 2010. I have been less enthusiastic as of late. I like your positive attitude!
#60 BC Bob
I suspect it is, but you are more of an expert than I am. But personally I think we are back into the 9’s by the end of the month. Last year money was hiding in oil futures, this year I think it is sitting in Gold. Good earnings will bring it back into the market to set things up for year end. If earnings go south, it will ride gold up while the market corrects.
I understand I could be wrong but at the end of the day, it is just my opinion and I’m entitled to it….. :*)
#65 Cindy.
I can’t see the full article. I think Sept sales have to be up due to the late Labor day and back to school. Also last Sept was a blood bath, so it is easier for the year on year to be up. Most of that is baked into the estimates, it will be the surprise comanpies that will break out. Anyone want a longshot bet on A&F.
#64 I cannot see how we can talk about any increase in retail sales, while unemployment continues to rise.
PGC [66],
You are wrong, I’m no expert. On the flip side, you could be right regarding a sell off. However, IMO, a short covering rally in the dollar will be more of an impetus for a pullback as compared to earnings. There have been huge pullbacks during this bull ride. There will be more. At this time, not one was associated with stock earnings. However, anything is possible.
I’m trading as a currency play, earnings are not on my radar. It is at/near highs compared to all currencies. It’s the anti-paper printing trade.
Markets make news, news does not make markets.
#64 Shore
Agreed, the feeling at the low end is caution, but inventories were spun down low to preserve cash when there was no credit to be had. Now that short term cash has stabilized and most companies have their long term debt rolled over, inventories can come back up. The heady days are over and firms will go back to basics.
I was in Modells at the weekend. The store has inventory reorganised into the best selling lines. Gone are the weight machines and canoes. Brand name, Nike, Adidas are cut back to the best selling items only. Team sports have been cut to mainly local teams. No more Blackhawks and Arsenal jerseys for the niche markets.
#15
“Not true for the desirable towns in North Jersey. I still gasp and chuckle when I open the new listings I receive. Asking prices are not too far from peak so a lot of pretenders are still buying. Ask anyone on this board who has been house shopping lately. Anything in the 400s is still dank smelling dreck. You have to approach something close to a 6 tag that would be considered a nice home. And by nice, I mean walking in and living there without having to do immediate surgery. Be prepared to dish out around $4000/month in PITI and hope that the furnace and water heater hold out so you can catch your breath.”
this is correct. 95% of sellers are in dream land and the 5% who are sane and price well sell so quickly you often don’t even see the listing.
#68 3b,
Not talking increase, last year Retail fell off a cliff. There is no cliff this year, but stores are better aligned to the market.
With Modellsm think, less Nike, more Champion.
Hey - Great news. In this age of cutbacks our company actually expanded a benefit this year! In the past, we had to pay $10 to get our annual flu shot on-site. Thsi year both the seasonal and H1N1 vaccines will be FREE! I guess they realize with 15% less of us around that they can’t afford for any of us to get sick.
Green shoots?
Call some hitmen looking to dump bodies, charge then 10K a stiff and throw 10 of them in and then fill the pool for a cool 100k Profit, I watch the Sporanos so I know how you NJ guys are.
The 400 tax deduction is just the front for your little scam, play on player.
Are they going to make you bend over for the shot?
NJGator says:
October 8, 2009 at 10:17 am
Hey - Great news. In this age of cutbacks our company actually expanded a benefit this year! In the past, we had to pay $10 to get our annual flu shot on-site. Thsi year both the seasonal and H1N1 vaccines will be FREE! I guess they realize with 15% less of us around that they can’t afford for any of us to get sick.
Green shoots?
I’m negotiating the purchase of my first home and am about 5k away as of this morning.
im about 75% confident they will come down by that much to make the deal happen - unless someone comes in with a higher bid by fri night.
Anyway, my mortgage broker, BoA/Countrywide, just quoted us 4.75% on a 30yr fixed. That was a nice surprise - bankrate is showing 5.20%.
#58
“We are largely there now. Go to the rural areas, it can be Cumberland County, most of Delmarva, huge portions of Vermont and Upstate NY, Florida away from the Universities and desirable coastal areas, they are in essence rural ghettos.”
agree with this. I really do not understand how most people make a living in these places, even though they are really cheap. the same can be said for at least half of the big cities.
Booya:
Cordially invites you to attend the
53rd Annual Arthur T. Vanderbilt Lecture
The lecture will be delivered by
Eliot L. Spitzer ‘84
“From Ayn Rand to Ken Feinberg; How quickly the paradigm shifts. What should be the rationale for government participation in the market place?”
Wednesday evening, October 21, 2009
at
The Manor
111 Prospect Avenue
West Orange, New Jersey 07052
Members of the Harvard Law School Association of New Jersey, spouses, guests, members of the Bench and Bar, and the general public are all welcome to attend.
Cocktail hour will begin at 5:30 p.m., followed by dinner at 7:00 p.m. The total charge for cocktails, dinner and gratuities is $85. for those who graduated prior to 2003 and $60. for those who graduated in or after 2003.
Please make your reservations as soon as possible by mailing the attached slip with your check payable to Harvard Law School Association of New Jersey to: Stephen H. Roth, 62 Summit Avenue, Hackensack, New Jersey 07601.
If you have not already paid your annual dues to the Association, please send a separate check for those dues with your reservation for the Lecture. Dues for 2009 - 2010 are $75. for alumni admitted to the Bar prior to 2003 and $50. for those in the public sector or who were admitted to the Bar in or after 2003 or who have been members of the Association for 50 years.
grim unmod
73.NJGator says:
October 8, 2009 at 10:17 am
Hey - Great news. In this age of cutbacks our company actually expanded a benefit this year! In the past, we had to pay $10 to get our annual flu shot on-site. Thsi year both the seasonal and H1N1 vaccines will be FREE! I guess they realize with 15% less of us around that they can’t afford for any of us to get sick.
Green shoots?
Or they figure the H1N1 shot will eliminate the other 10% they need.
#76 Are you going FHA?
Figured it out…
chicagofinance says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
October 8, 2009 at 10:23 am
Booya:
Cordially invites you to attend the
53rd Annual Arthur T. Vanderbilt Lecture
The lecture will be delivered by
Eliot L. Spitzer ‘84
“From Ayn Rand to Ken Feinberg; How quickly the paradigm shifts. What should be the rationale for government participation in the market place?”
Wednesday evening, October 21, 2009
at
The Manor
111 Prospect Avenue
West Orange, New Jersey 07052
Members of the Harvard Law School Association of New Jersey, spouses, guests, members of the Bench and Bar, and the general public are all welcome to attend.
C-cktail hour will begin at 5:30 p.m., followed by dinner at 7:00 p.m. The total charge for c-cktails, dinner and gratuities is $85. for those who graduated prior to 2003 and $60. for those who graduated in or after 2003.
Please make your reservations as soon as possible by mailing the attached slip with your check payable to Harvard Law School Association of New Jersey to: Stephen H. Roth, 62 Summit Avenue, Hackensack, New Jersey 07601.
If you have not already paid your annual dues to the Association, please send a separate check for those dues with your reservation for the Lecture. Dues for 2009 - 2010 are $75. for alumni admitted to the Bar prior to 2003 and $50. for those in the public sector or who were admitted to the Bar in or after 2003 or who have been members of the Association for 50 years.
3b, I dont know about fha but im probably not putting 20% down like originally planned.
Will most likely put down 10%, make some minor renovations and keep the rest for rainy day savings.
The 3% down is tempting but would just stretch our monthly cash flows too much.
A little on Livingston.
Mrs PGC and I were looking at the town as a possible place to move to. The deal breaker was the fact that the school district has soft borders. That means that even if you live beside one school, you could be bussed across town to another based on the enrollment numbers. Most of the schools were good, but you didn’t want to spin the wheel and take a chance of getting into the one bad school.
Anyhow, she took a tour of the JCC as she would want to have access to a pool. The subject of Temples came up, but my wife pointed out that we were not of that faith. Apparently it is not an issue and they do have a small membership who are not J or are non practicing. I assume that they have to run as non denominational for tax reasons among others. The JCC is an impressive facility.
Just replaced my 50 gal Hot Water Heater with a Kenmore 12 year Energy Saver for $900 installed with take away from Sears. That is $400 less then cheapest quote from other plumbers.
Chi,
How’s your mom doing?
Bost: waiting until next week….
#24
Chinese Dry Wall Lawsuits have begun.
Why are you guys picking on me?
You were quite happy to welcome me into your homes, and now because I may be a bit gassy, you want to tear me down and sue?
我聼不懂
Semi-relevant tax news of the day:
“House Avoids Vote on Removing Rangel,
Sends Resolution to House Ethics Committee
The House Oct. 7 voted along mostly partisan lines on a motion to refer a privileged resolution (H. Res. 805) to the chamber’s ethics committee, circumventing a recorded floor vote to immediately remove House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.) as head of the tax-writing panel.
“Let’s look at this resolution for what it really is—a highly partisan effort designed to undermine the important work in Congress on health care reform,” a Rangel spokesman said. “It’s also an attempt to circumvent House rules, which provide for a comprehensive, bipartisan ethics committee process for reviewing matters such as these. . . .
The House Feb. 10 voted 242-157 to defeat a similar Republican resolution calling for Rangel’s removal from the chairmanship. Two previous GOP efforts to remove Rangel pending an ethics investigation were made in 2008 and failed.
Nevertheless, Republicans hailed the 246-153 vote, with 19 members voting present and 14 not voting, as an indication that they were gaining support for their effort. Two Mississippi Democrats—Reps. Gene Taylor and Travis Childers—sided with Republicans in voting against the ethics committee referral.
“These votes show that support for the Democratic Leaders’ decision to sweep this matter under the rug is starting to crack,” said Michael Steel, a spokesman for House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio), in an e-mail to reporters.
Boehner also condemned the vote and Rangel’s continued chairmanship in a news release.
“Instead of holding Chairman Rangel accountable for his actions, House Democrats are once again circling the wagons and demonstrating their loyalty to a leader who faces serious questions about his official conduct,” the release said.
However, six Republicans cast votes in
favor of the referral. . . .
Tax Issues Outlined
Rep. Joseph Crowley (D-N.Y.), . . . offered the motion to refer the privileged resolution to the Committee on Standards of Official Conduct, which is already conducting an investigation of Rangel’s failure to report $2,700-$7,600 in rental annual income received from his Dominican Republic property during the 1994-2004 period . . . The ethics committee, which in February voted to resume the investigation, is also looking at concerns about Rangel’s use of four rent-controlled apartments in New York City and fund-raising activity that he was engaged in to help finance the construction of a City College building that will bear his name.
Most recently, an amended disclosure filed Aug. 12 showed that Rangel failed to account for more than $500,000 in savings and investments he held in 2007 and undercounted his income for that year by at least $30,000 in financial disclosure forms filed last year.”
Wonder if I can get Rangel treatment for my swiss bank account clients? I’ll tell the judge, “your honor, it would violate my client’s rights for IRS to hold him to a higher standard than it does for members of Congress. IRS’ actions in prosecuting my client are arbitrary and capricious in light of their treatment of similarly situated taxpayers in the form of Charles Rangel.”
FWIW, if I did this, I would be hit with tens of thousands of dollars in fines and penalties, would be disbarred, and would likely be in jail or on probation. In fact, ordinary citizens have gone to jail for less.
ChiFi I would rather hear Mrs. Spitzer speak and I would bring Elliot’s tramp as my guest.
Chi [86],
All the best.
“Ok, today is the day I had called for an end of the recession. It is the first day of the Q3 earning season. Any company that has weathered the storm to this point is in good shape.
Gold has run up as a hedge in case the earnings numbers go south. So make sure you have your stops in place for the slide back down if numbers are good.
Yes there is a lot of unemployment, but inventories are low and need to be built up again. Retail will be ugly but not terrible. Oil prices will stay down as the shadow inventory comes off the parked tankers.
Overall, the main storm in over and the slow rebuild over the next 2 years will begin. I personally think the earnings numbers will be good. There will be some breakout surprises and anyone posting bad numbers without strong cash reserves (house builders, Ford, etc) will be toast.”
———-
That’s mighty rosy. Where’s the demand for those inventories you speak of?
85
Congrats.
You just bought a critical appliance that has the potential to be a bomb from the lowest cost contracted manufacturer available installed by the lowest priced contractor a third party could find.
“You are wrong, I’m no expert. On the flip side, you could be right regarding a sell off. However, IMO, a short covering rally in the dollar will be more of an impetus for a pullback as compared to earnings. There have been huge pullbacks during this bull ride. There will be more. At this time, not one was associated with stock earnings. However, anything is possible.
I’m trading as a currency play, earnings are not on my radar. It is at/near highs compared to all currencies. It’s the anti-paper printing trade.
Markets make news, news does not make markets.”
——-
Totally agree. Gold is being run up a currency hedge; has nothing to do with equities.
I went to two open houses this weekend. Unimpressed with both.
Even my wife thought they were overpriced by at least 20%.
I’ve noticed houses priced below their 2004 sales price sitting for months.
Purely anecdotal, but I think houses in great shape in prime location (not just a good town, but a good spot in a good town) move quickly, while anything else in the good towns just sits for a long time.
The Redistribution continues, and in fact, just had its tour extended.
“Neal Supports Adding Expiring Incentives
For Distressed Communities to Extenders
House Ways and Means Select Revenue Measures Subcommittee Chairman Richard Neal (D-Mass.) said Oct. 7 that incorporating tax incentives for distressed communities into the annual extenders package strikes him as a “very attractive avenue” and expressed support for a multiyear extension that provides more predictability in the years ahead.
Witnesses testifying before the subcommittee said Congress should expand a variety of tax incentives—slated to expire at the end of the year—available to distressed communities under the empowerment zones and renewal communities programs.
“In addition, you could see that there’s certainly no crosscurrent here of ill will toward the concept—everybody’s been pretty supportive,” he told reporters after the hearing. “And my hunch is that … this could get done before the end of the year.”
Nelson R. Bregon, testifying on behalf of Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan, said the administration requested a one-year extension of the designation period for empowerment zones and renewal communities in President Obama’s fiscal year 2010 budget. . . .”
So, Obama asks for a 1 year extension of the programs shifting your tax dollars to the ‘hood, and Neal says, heck, lets make it longer!!!
[90] John
You CAN get a date with Ashley Dupree, you know.
So could I. It’s called the GFE.
Or did you already date her, before she turned to tricks?
“That’s mighty rosy. Where’s the demand for those inventories you speak of?”
There is a base level of demand, it never goes to zero. Inventories were scaled back to preserve cash, that hurts businesses as they my lose customers and increase order times to cope with lack of product.
They won’t return to the previous highs, but to the normal level for the new business environment.
Veto,
Good luck! Don’t listen to any scare tactics about other offers coming in. The listing agent on my deal tried to use that on me and it cost her client 5k because I called their bluff.
“Totally agree. Gold is being run up a currency hedge; has nothing to do with equities.”
And the oil run up last year had nothing to do with equities either. I’m not saying that is it is the sole reason, but does AUD hiking interest rates a quarter fully justify last weeks jump.
5. Trenton, N.J.
Trenton-Ewing, N.J., Metropolitan Statistical Area
Median Family Income: $93,912
High Trenton incomes are largely earned outside of the city. Many residents commute to New York. Neighboring Ewing is where many biotech firms are headquartered, and residents are leading a local boom for the industry.
http://www.forbes.com/2009/09/28/americans-income-cities-lifestyle-real-estate-richest-cities_slide_17.html
People have gone mad….
http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2009/10/4_teens_arreste.html
so 4.75% is the going rate for 10% down? is the mortgage amount about 417k? that is pretty good
meant above 417k
Spitzer claiming that Wall St was run according to Ayn Rand’s ideas is an outrage. Spitzer abviously couldn’t differentiate an Orren Boyle from a Hank Rearden. I guess he figures if anybody has money to spend outside of government, then that’s too much capitalism.
Compare and contrast:
What Ayn Rand favored: Free Banking, gold for money, integrity (see The Fountainhead), creative destruction. Long term rational self interest.
Americas financial system in 2005:
Fiat money. Central banks, with a central planner via the Fed. Government bank deposit guarantees backed by taxpayers. Government run mortgage and housing agencies pumping government-backed cash into the system. Big banks already assigned “too big to fail” by government post LTCM. Bankers obsessed with skimming annual bonuses off the back of government guarantees and taxpayer fund, to waste on an idiot’s choice of lifestyle.
Veto,
What are the amount of fees that BOA is charging? I am in the same boat and I was quoted a 4.871% rate with $495.00 in bank fees from Wells.
“but does AUD hiking interest rates a quarter fully justify last weeks jump.”
PGC,
Last weeks jump? The AUD has been in a steady climb for months. Capital migrates to where it is treated best, or at least perceived to.
A much more targeted explanation would be the new carry. Also, the AUD is backed by tangible assets. In addition to this, unemployment is low and jobs are being added. Possibly, the icing on the cake; Rule of law still exists.
Regarding rate hikes, there will be more coming, Aussie. The spread between AUD int rates and ours will continue to widen. In this environment, why would there be a sustainable Aussie decline versus the USD? The key is sustainable, of course there will always be short term rebalancing.
One other item, there could be a severe decline in AUD/USD; a major, worldwide equity crash.
Skep, its below 400K.
Escape, Downpayment wasnt discussed during this phone call - she just said 4.75% with your rating score. I didnt ask fees. Maybe i should start diging into all of that Especially since i’ll only have 30 days to close if we agree on a price.
Secondary Mkt, Thanks. You are right on. If i listened to the scare tactics i would have already made this deal at a price $15K higher than where they are now. Unbelievable.
To the moon, liquidity flooding the stock market, happy days are here again!!!!
Funny stuff, HUD declares a 88K income for a family of five to be impoverished and eligible for a subsidized low income loan. 94K ain’t what it used to be.
October 8, 2009 at 11:10 am
5. Trenton, N.J.
Trenton-Ewing, N.J., Metropolitan Statistical Area
Median Family Income: $93,912
“There are more than 6,600 home foreclosure filings per day, according to the Center for Responsible Lending, a nonpartisan watchdog group based in Durham, North Carolina.”
That is the first time I have ever heard CRL described as nonpartisan. Folks in this business will tell you that they are in the same CEP as ACORN.
PGC 57
Overall, the main storm in over and the slow rebuild over the next 2 years will begin
very bold call. where is the money to fuel this new expansion going to come from? which developing nation is going to subsidize American spending?
[102] qwerty
end user demand.
[102] qwerty
The article makes it sound like the sticks, but that area is pretty built up now, basically suburbs of NH cities, and exburbs of Boston. The kids’ hometown is described as affluent and that is an area that does have some affluent small towns.
And the kids look like sk1nheads, so I am not surprised by the actions, but in what passes for a pretty decent area, one has to wonder.
Northern NE doesn’t get many killings, but when they do, it is this variety. Same thing happened in Vermont a couple of years ago. Same thing happened in Farmville, VA. (which is larger than it sounds) last week.
Is this a surprise? It shouldn’t be. We have raised an entire generation of americans without values or morals, desensitized to atrocities, and weaned on self-gratification and contempt for societal order. And anyone pushing those values these days gets hooted down, which just reinforces the message.
Maybe we shoud just annihilate the entire generation that grew up on X-box and playstation and start over? For my part, I won’t hesitate to drop a post-millenial at the first sign of trouble. It’s a lost generation.
FHA has $54 billion short fall. Ouch.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/10/fha-bailout-seen.html
“That is the first time I have ever heard CRL described as nonpartisan”
Nom,
They are just nonpartisan leftist pinkos. They never take a partisan stance, just philosophical ones. Feel better now?
#107 BC Bob,
The carry was set up by the Fed dropping from 4% to 0.25% when a few on this board said we needed to raise rates to stop the EUR and GBP getting stronger and ramping up inflation. Luckily (?) they went down with us.
AUD is not backed by gold, they sold off most of their reserves, but as the largest exporter, they are backed by the taxes on the privately held mining companies.
Their unemployment rate has just dipped under 6%. It had been dropping steadily from over 9% over the last decade, but spiked from 4.2% to 6.0 over the last year.
It it safer, probably. So is it safe. I wouldn’t necessarily say so.
Qwerty 102
We really are turning into zimbabwe! Machetes and knives are a favorite tool in zimbabwe violence!
very disturbing though. You have to be very messed up to randomly decide to hack someone up for sport
#102
Luckily, NH has the death penalty.
PGC
Australia has substantial productive natural resource development as one of their primary industries. The US has consumption of toxic chinese goods as our industry.
AUD is backed by their productive industry.
I am a true nonpartisan I hate them all. BTW I saw 4% to .025% coming the whole time. Rock one, maybe give me just one little more .025% cut!!! .00% rocks
gator (73)-
Sure those are flu shots they’re giving you?
Maybe Conde Nasty has just pimped your bodies to the gubmint.
“It it safer, probably. So is it safe. I wouldn’t necessarily say so.”
PGC,
All investments are inherent with risk. Not safe? Depends on your definition of safe; political/social/economic risk or market risk? Bigger question, IMO, what currency pair are you trading it against?
They just added 40K to their payrolls. On an apples/apples comparison, that would equate to over 500K jobs added in the US. Can you imagine the cartwheels on CNBC is this was the case?
If it crashes, IMO, the equity markets will follow. Great spread/hedge opportunities.
…hate to see your whole company take shots of placebo.
If she had had a gun in the house and killed them all she would probably be in jail now. I can hear the defense now…they were good kids…they had no previous record..the sociopathic ramblings in their journals must be ignored because that is how kids talk these days.
#112 Hope?
if this was
renter 126
Im not so sure about that in NH. in MA yes, but perhaps not in NH.
That why i like big dogs. At the minimum you get an early warning and best case you dont have to feed the dog in the morning.
veto (83)-
Wait till you see the PMI quote if you put down less than 20%. Will be a dealbreaker.
Of course, your friendly BAC Home Loans originator will not tell you about this.
plume (89)-
Things like this are just proof positive that the gubmint is the enemy.
New York Income Tax Revenue Falls 36% in Year, Paterson Says
New York State’s income tax revenue has dropped 36 percent from the same period in 2008, Governor David Paterson said, “frustrating” his attempt to close a projected $2.1 billion budget deficit. “We added personal income tax, which we thought would make the falloff 10 percent to 15 percent,” Paterson, a Democrat, said on CNBC today, referring to $5.2 billion in new or increased taxes. “This is what is so frustrating. It’s still 36 percent, meaning our revenues fell more in 2009 than they did in 2008.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNQ6zYnQbPTc
NSFW around 2:48 of the clip. BC, these are for you.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4Tvp3psM74
Congressional Budget Office (CBO):
The Long-Term Budget Outlook
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/102xx/doc10297/06-25-LTBO.pdf
“Large budget deficits,” write the authors of the CBO report, would …
* “Reduce national saving,” leading to …
* “More borrowing from abroad” and …
* “Less domestic investment,” which in turn would …
* “Depress income growth in the United States,” and …
* “Seriously harm the economy.”
* “Lenders may become concerned about the financial solvency of the government and …
* “Demand higher interest rates to compensate for the increasing riskiness of holding government debt.” Plus …
* “Both foreign and domestic lenders may not provide enough funds for the government to meet its obligations.”
* “The systematic widening of budget shortfalls projected under CBO’s long-term scenarios has never been observed in U.S. history” and …
* It will also be larger than the debt accumulations of any other industrialized nation in the post-World War II period, including Belgium and Italy, the two worst cases of all.
* “The analysis omitted the pressures that a rising ratio of debt to GDP would have on real interest rates and economic growth.”
* “The growth of debt would lead to a vicious cycle in which the government had to issue ever-larger amounts of debt in order to pay ever-higher interest charges.”
* “More government borrowing would drain the nation’s pool of savings, reducing * “Capital would probably flee the United States, further reducing investment.”
“The analysis … does not incorporate the financial markets’ reactions to a fiscal crisis and the actions that the government would adopt to resolve such a crisis. Because [our] textbook growth model is not forward-looking, the analysis assumes that people will not anticipate the sustainability issues facing the federal budget; as a result, the model predicts only a gradual change in the economy as federal debt rises.
“In actuality, the economic effects of rapidly growing debt would probably be much more disorderly as investors’ confidence in the nation’s fiscal solvency began to erode. If foreign investors anticipated an economic crisis, they might significantly reduce their purchases of U.S. securities, causing the exchange value of the dollar to plunge, interest rates to climb, and consumer prices to shoot up
“New York Income Tax Revenue Falls 36% in Year, Paterson Says”
Well, duh! One billionaire I know left the state and relocated to Florida because he can save something like $25,000/day in taxes by doing so. Those whose work is not tied to being in a particuar locstion would be foolish to pay a heavy premium to pay to live someplace if there are egual or better alterntives that come at a substantially-lower cost.
U.S. Treasury Department:
Treasury Bulletin
total US liabilities to foreigners: $7,898,435 million
7.89 Trillion!
http://www.fms.treas.gov/bulletin/b2009-3.pdf
“the sociopathic ramblings in their journals must be ignored because that is how kids talk these days.”
He just an excitable boy?
BC
heads up! This smells like a trigger if it hits Euro banks the right way
Banks brace for Latvia’s collapse
The Baltic states are once again in the eye of the storm after leaked reports that Sweden is bracing for a full-blown economic and political “breakdown” in Latvia. The Svenska Dagbladet newspaper said Sweden’s finance minister Anders Borg had told banks secretly that Latvia’s political order was unravelling, advising them to prepare for the collapse of Latvia’s rescue talks. Latvia has failed to deliver draconian spending cuts agreed to secure the next tranche of its €7.5bn (£6.85bn) bail-out from the EU, the International Monetary Fund, and Sweden, balking at 20pc cuts in pensions and a further 15pc cut in public wages.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/6263039/Banks-brace-for-Latvias-collapse.html
vodka (138)-
Seems like all the different triggers to a collapse of civilization are in place, locked and loaded.
Should make for a fun Winter.
One day closer to oblivion.
It is a shame about Latvia. I trained with some of their Olympians just as they achieved independence. Great group of guys.
Latvia has failed to deliver draconian spending cuts agreed to secure the next tranche of its €7.5bn (£6.85bn) bail-out from the EU, the International Monetary Fund, and Sweden
Latvia screwing their creditors over is actually good for the Latvian citizens. Otherwise, they would have had to remain debt serfs for life.
Shore [133],
Certainly not a little girl standing on the corner.
Russia is salivating over a latvian breakdown. They are still bitter about losing influence there and would love to regain influence of the area.
[129] kettle,
Very true, even tho SoNH is overrun with Massh*oles.
When I lived in NH, my carry permit app. was one page. Send it in with a $10 check and you got your carry permit.
Only reason I can carry a rifle in the Peoples Republic of Mass is because Daddy made sure I got my FID card, and it had an “indefinite” duration.
kettle [138],
Att: All Caribbean traders, back to your battle stations. Increase our swap lines.
“total US liabilities to foreigners: $7,898,435 million”
If we describe it in thousands, maybe it will seem smaller. I wonder if the Chinese will accept Hawaii in exchange for what we owe them; a national version of strip poker. In this case, strip the wealth poker.
#112 kettle
“where is the money to fuel this new expansion going to come from? which developing nation is going to subsidize American spending?”
The spending will be back to basics. The days of $3K on a plasma are over. But there will still be a demand for the $400 TVs. Cheap plastic demand will still be there at the Walmart price points.
There will be casualt1es. Some big companies are going to go out of business. But what is left will continue to plough on. GE/IBM/Boing and the like may hurt in parts, but overall they will plow on, in a new marketplace.
High Ticket/High margin will move towards Higher volume/Lower margin.
BC,
She could sit on just about anyone’s fender at any time.
[120]
Better yet, I think NH still allows hangings. Why doesn’t someone request that instead of the spike?
“High Ticket/High margin will move towards Higher volume/Lower margin”
The real downside here is that we can’t supply ourselves with low-priced goods so we need to continue importing them and sending dollars oversess. People would be better paying more for things made here, for, in the end, the benefits to the economy overall outweigh the pennies saved by buying so many things from overseas.
Veto,
I would suggest you do a little due diligence as to the fees. I have found the fees from the bank alone can run between $500.00 - $2,000.00. Then you have to factor in escrow of taxes which could be 1-3 months. Plus inspection, title search and filing fees.
As I said I am in the same boat as you. I found a house I like I tell the agent I might be interested but I want to think about it. Two days later the phone call comes that someone placed an offer. This house sat for 100+ plus days and now all of a sudden there is a bidding won. That trick is so 2006.
People would be better paying more for things made here
They will probably be the case, soon enough, when the dollar goes low enough to make the asians uncompetitive. Unfortunately, that brings asian level wages to our shores as well. Globalization is a b!tch. We managed to cover the effects for so long via credit expansion, but now the chickens have come home to roost.
“I found a house I like I tell the agent I might be interested but I want to think about it. Two days later the phone call comes that someone placed an offer. ”
My response? “Very well, consider our offer withdrawn. We wish the other bidders many happy years in the house.”
what the CBO does not understand is that we have to spend money (trillions) to save money. it is so simple, it’s easy to see how they missed it.
This market is a Tower of Babble just waiting for its collapse
#144 And they have a huge disaffected largely unemployed Russian minority as does Estonia and Lithuainia.
Skep,
Some years ago, I knew a woman who was teetering on the edge financially. What did she do? She opened up new credit cards and lines of credit and bought everything she ever wanted or thpught she coulod ever use, then went BK. After the dust settled, she got approved for a mortgage, bought a house, and filled it with her free-to-her goodies.
So, place your bets, ladies and gentlemen, what’s it going to be? What trigger will finally cause this lighter than air, spun sugar market to well and truly collapse?
Maybe that is B.O’s plan.
3b,
The real loser here will be the U.S. If Russia enters Latvia to “protect Russians,” NATO has the choice of defending a member nation or losing all credibility. After the NATO fiasco in Afghanistan, failing to act in Latvia — our only realistic choice at the moment — will do what the Soviets were never able to achieve, rendering the alliance impotent and possibly ruptering ties between the U.S. and much of Europe.
It was probably a mistake to let the Baltics into NATO in the first place, just as it would be a mistake to let Ukraine or Georgia into NATO now. The Russians have not gone away.
Georgia would be a HUGE mistake. I suspect the only reason it is being considered is the pipelines from the Caspian.
Shore,
What do you thing Afghanistan is really about? What 2 major nations are between china and Iran and next to the gas/oil fields of kyrgystan/uzbekistan.
Energy chess
3b,
NATO got greedy and wanted to rub some salt into russian wounds. payback is a b1tch
#164 The English could not conquer and control Afghanistan, neither could the Soviets,and neither will the U.S.
#165 Agreed. Russian is an old and patient country, they will wait. Americans need to know that have not gone away.
Kettle,
It is just a new round in the Great Game.
Here is another fun tidbit:
the ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers) national infrastructure report card
http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/
2009 Grades
Aviation D
Bridges C
Dams D
Drinking Water D-
Energy D+
Hazardous Waste D
Inland Waterways D-
Levees D-
Public Parks and Recreation C-
Rail C-
Roads D-
Schools D
Solid Waste C+
Transit D
Wastewater D-
America’s Infrastructure GPA: D
Estimated 5 Year Investment Need: $2.2 Trillion
was this posted yet?
William Black: “Geithner has been wrong about everything in his career. He’s a disaster”
http://www.newsweek.com/id/216785/page/1
ASCE NJ Report:
http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/state-page/new-jersey
* 36% of New Jersey’s bridges are structurally deficient or functionally obsolete.
* There are 213 high hazard dams in New Jersey. A high hazard dam is defined as a dam whose failure would cause a loss of life and significant property damage.
* 315 of New Jersey’s 1,717 dams are in need of rehabilitation to meet applicable state dam safety standards.
* 2% of high hazard dams in New Jersey have no emergency action plan (EAP). An EAP is a predetermined plan of action to be taken including roles, responsibilities and procedures for surveillance, notification and evacuation to reduce the potential for loss of life and property damage in an area affected by a failure or mis-operation of a dam.
* New Jersey’s drinking water infrastructure needs an investment of $6.92 billion over the next 20 years.
* New Jersey ranked 12th in the quantity of hazardous waste produced and 8th in the total number of hazardous waste producers.
* New Jersey’s ports handled 127 million tons of waterborne traffic in 2005, ranking it 5th in the nation.
* New Jersey reported an unmet need of $210 million for its state public outdoor recreation facilities and parkland acquisition.
* 78% of New Jersey’s major roads are in poor or mediocre condition.
* 64% of New Jersey’s major urban highways are congested.
* Vehicle travel on New Jersey’s highways increased 29% from 1990 to 2007.
* New Jersey transportation systems have a deferred maintenance backlog of $13 billion.
* New Jersey has $9.15 billion in wastewater infrastructure needs.
Re NJ ASCE Report,
I guess we need to raise property taxes to pay for this eh?
Russia, now that’s a country with Gold Reserves, pity the resources are drying up.
Report # 4
U.S. Federal Reserve:
Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1.pdf
page 12 is nice.
Between the 3 financial reports i linked, there should be no question that the US government nows see’s the average taxpayer as an enemy and a resource to be leveraged
Flow of Funds Highlights:
* In the first half of last year, the U.S. Treasury raised funds at the annual pace of $411 billion in the first quarter and $310 billion in the second quarter.
* The Treasury has stepped up its pace of borrowing to annual rates of $1.443 TRILLION in the first quarter and $1.896 TRILLION in the second quarter. That’s 3.5 times and over SIX TIMES MORE than last year’s, respectively.
* Last year, banks provided new credit at the annual pace of $472.4 billion in the first quarter and $86.7 billion in the second. This year, they’re not providing ANY new credit — they’re actually LIQUIDATING loans at the rate of $857.2 billion in the first quarter and $931.3 billion in the second. So if you’re running a business, you may want to think twice before asking your bank for more money. Instead, they may decide to TAKE BACK the money they’ve already loaned you!
* Last year, mortgages were being created at the annual clip of $522.5 billion and $124 billion in the first and second quarters, respectively. This year, on a net basis, mortgages haven’t been created at all. Quite the contrary, the Fed reports that, on a net basis, they’ve been liquidated at an annual pace of $39.3 billion in the first quarter and $239.5 billion in the second.
* Getting cash out of credit cards and other consumer credit is even tougher. Last year, folks were able to add to their consumer credit at annual rates of $115 billion and $105 billion in the first two quarters. This year, in contrast, they’ve been forced to CUT back on their credit at annual rates of $95.3 billion in the first quarter … and at an even faster pace in the second quarter — $166.8 billion.
Schumpt,
Good point on the points…
But I thought FHA points are capped at a certain amount…
what do you suggest?
Also, what exactly is the difference between fha and regular mortgage? According to my lender, they get the same rate but you only have to put down 3% for FHA. But what about fees, and paperwork and timing?
Escape I’ll look into the fees. thanks,
Wonder if they are meeting with the CEO of Eastman Kodak cause we talked them up so much hear. I am sure the big O monitors this site.
10/08 12:01 DJ White House: Obama To Have Lunch With Business Leaders
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)–U.S. President Barack Obama will have lunch Thursday with a small group of top corporate executives, including Amazon.com Inc.’s ( AMZN) Jeff Bezos and Eastman Kodak Co.’s (EK) Antonio Perez.
The White House said the lunch, just added to Obama’s public schedule, is part of the administration’s ongoing outreach to the business community.
“The administration has continued to seek the input of a diverse group of business leaders in order to hear directly from the private sector about key issues including the health of the financial sector, health insurance reform, climate change policy and job creation,” the White House said.
In addition to Bezos and Perez, Obama will dine with Lew Hay of Florida Power & Light and Irene Rosenfeld of Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT).
kettle1 #164:
“What do you thing Afghanistan is really about? What 2 major nations are between china and Iran and next to the gas/oil fields of kyrgystan/uzbekistan.”
Kyrgyzstan should be Kazakhstan. Kyrgyzstan has little oil and/or gas. It’s a beautiful place, however.
“The administration has continued to seek the input of a diverse group of business leaders in order to hear directly from the private sector about key issues including the health of the financial sector”
Why not invite senior bondholders of GM?
Shore,
I agree with you 100%. I have not submitted a written bid yet. I will and call the seller agent’s bluff. I will not counter above my offer. In the alternative, I have my lease renewal in my hand which reads $200.00 less a month than last year.
Anyone want to put bets on Timmay in the dead pool?
U.S. President Barack Obama has tremendous confidence in Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and the job he is doing, spokesman Robert Gibbs said Thursday.
At Gibbs’ daily briefing, a reporter noted that many bankers had been showing up on Obama’s schedule and asked whether the president still has confidence in Geithner.
“Obviously we have tremendous confidence in Secretary Geithner, as somebody who has helped steer the financial sector to stability, has worked on a range of issues and will be heavily involved in regulatory reform going forward,” Gibbs said.
I say Timmay doesn’t last until the Ides of March.
Paul,
good catch, i mixed up my “Stans”
RE: home invasion
A similar incident, where the thrill seeker attackers were forced to find a more vulnerable victim (and did months later)
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0BTT/is_169_28/ai_114475580/
Roubini says housing market hasn’t bottomed
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. housing prices may still fall more than 10 percent, killing an incipient recovery, as demand from first-time home buyers fades, leading economist Nouriel Roubini said on Thursday.
Roubini said massive losses in commercial real estate loans will add to the problem, forcing banks to raise more capital.
“The stress is moving from residential mortgages that are still in deep trouble, to commercial real estate, where they are just starting to recognize that they’re going to have massive, massive losses,” Roubini of RGE Global Monitor told reporters after a presentation for a World Economic Forum report on the global financial system.
U.S. home prices rose for the third straight month in July, raising hopes the market is stabilizing after a three-year plunge.
While the number of unsold houses may have bottomed out, prices are poised to fall further, increasing pressure on the economy again, Roubini said.
“Half of this is in medium-sized and smaller banks, and even in the larger ones. Most of these losses are not recognized because they’re keeping the loans at face value on their books,” he said, forecasting that U.S. and U.K. banks will need to raise more capital when those writedowns are made.
Still, Roubini sees a greater chance of a U-shaped economic recovery in developed economies, with a 20 percent to 25 percent chance of a double-dip.
“If it’s a U-shaped recovery, China, Asia, and emerging markets will do fine. If there is a double dip, the consequences will be severe for everybody.”
reposting from last night …
http://www.freep.com/article/20091007/NEWS01/91007043/1320/Chaos-reigns-at-Detroit-aid-event
#158 I had a friend get a whole bunch of tailor-made clothes on the CC’s before going bankrupt.
Hey John, how easy will be it be to unload all those bonds you have?
you throwing in the towel at the 1st sign of panic?
Hope is on the way!
500,000 helped by Obama mortgage rescue
http://money.cnn.com/2009/10/08/news/economy/Mortgage_modifications/
20: Frank, acquantinces of mine with long green have bought in NYC in prime locations very recently. Co-op at @ 25-35% off peak.
shore, did you see the piece in the New Yorker about ticketmaster?
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/08/10/090810fa_fact_seabrook
(if not a subscribe, i highly recommend, great mag)
Yikes,
I did no see it. I will take a look.
15.gary says:
October 8, 2009 at 8:03 am
Foreclosures, which started with subprime borrowers, have now moved on to the much bigger prime loan market on the back of mounting unemployment.
Not true for the desirable towns in North Jersey. I still gasp and chuckle when I open the new listings I receive. Asking prices are not too far from peak so a lot of pretenders are still buying. Ask anyone on this board who has been house shopping lately. Anything in the 400s is still dank smelling dreck. You have to approach something close to a 6 tag that would be considered a nice home. And by nice, I mean walking in and living there without having to do immediate surgery. Be prepared to dish out around $4000/month in PITI and hope that the furnace and water heater hold out so you can catch your breath
Damn straight and that’s the way it’s gonna stay. I’m not about to just give my house away to some stinking vulture who thinks he’s gonna play me for a chump and just take my damn house for nothing. If you want my house, you’re going to pay me my price.
50.5,
Great to see you back. How’s credit flowing these days?
We have raised an entire generation of americans without values or morals, desensitized to atrocities, and weaned on self-gratification and contempt for societal order.
I liked it better when Plato said it:
“What is happening to our young people? They disrespect their elders, they disobey their parents. They ignore the law. They riot in the streets inflamed with wild notions. Their morals are decaying. What is to become of them?”
You forgot to add ’stay off my lawn!’.
That Boston story? Tweakin. Will they report it or even investigate it? Probably not.
Escape,
Lender fee upon closing… $565.
Veto That says:
October 8, 2009 at 10:31 am
3b, I dont know about fha but im probably not putting 20% down like originally planned.
Will most likely put down 10%, make some minor renovations and keep the rest for rainy day savings.
The 3% down is tempting but would just stretch our monthly cash flows too much.
i know everyone’s situation is different, and a bunch of very smart people on here advocate the big mortgages … i disagree.
IMHO … the more you can put down, the better … BUT ONLy if you still can have 50k in the bank after closing (for rainy day).
reason being: I dont see the jobs problem abetting anytime soon. how safe is your job? you’re wife’s job?
also, what would the diff be in monthly mortgage if you put 3% down vs. 10% vs. 30%?
i love the idea of a small mortgage, but that’s just me. we put down a little less than 200k just to keep our mortgage (and taxes) under 2700.
I was looking for some info and wondered if you had a site map or search box or something?
194 BC Bob says:
October 8, 2009 at 3:35 pm
50.5,
Great to see you back. How’s credit flowing these days?
The damn real estate terrorists have got the banks acting like a bunch of damn pantywaists. They won’t let me take out any more cash. They always got their damn money back from me, so I don’t know why they’re acting like a bunch of wusses.
Yikes i like the small monthly payment too but that means dumping most of the rainy day fund into the downpayment.
They are two extreme situations. One is apocolyptic scenario of japan where prices keep dropping for decades, which would make you want to do the 3% - and always keep your option to walk.
The other scenario is that we will eventually come out of this recession somehow in the next ten years just like we have come out of the last 40 recessions - in that case you would put down 20-40% and wait for the economy to stabilize.
Im 50/50 on inflation/deflation scenario so im going half way on the downpayment thing.
My job is probably no more secure than anyone elses. I have this assumption in my head that i’ll be able to find another job in commuting distance that pays at least 80-90% of what i get now. Hopefully i wont have to ever find out if thats possible or not.
#198
IMO, as long as you have cash in the bank, you can look at your debt on a net basis. Your equity in your house won’t save you if you lose your job– if you stop making payments, they can foreclose. Keeping more cash out of your house would actually increase your flexibility in this regard, although you pay for this flexibility in the form of more interest and PMI. It’s ultimately a personal preference, but I think there are strong arguments for lower DPs.
1673b says:
October 8, 2009 at 1:42 pm
#165 Agreed. Russian is an old and patient country, they will wait. Americans need to know that have not gone away.
Who gives a tinker’s damn about what the commie ruskies think? They don’t matter and they’ve proven themselves to be clueless with their centrally planned economy and their commie buddies in China are going to find themselves in the same damn spot.
yikes,
if the dust settles you can always refi with more money down, right now I’d take all the free money I could and sit on my fat bank account.
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=5673
October 8, 2009
Feeling A Bit Left Behind
I decided to contact a couple of “mortgage brokers” referred to me by my in-laws. One said that given my credit and income I could get a loan for “over $2 Million” with nothing down. My income was approximately $300K per annum at that time. I went home and told my wife we were not buying for a while because something incredibly insane is going on. Later that week at a family function, a BIL tells me that I should “buy something for $700K or $800K because there is no chance you will lose anything at that price”, implying that is a “low-end” purchase. (This is a man who purchased a lake-front property, in Wayne, NJ for Christ sakes, for $1.7MM in 2004 and just had it appraise for $800K!)
That sealed it, I told my wife we were not buying for a long time. Years of happy renting go by with us saving nice chunks of cash. I do have a slightly uneasy feeling though since so many of my friends and business associates “own million dollar homes” and second and even third homes around the US. I have a feeling of being a bit left behind. I suppose I was since I had no debt of any kind, nor did my wife.
#202 seems to me in light of everything FHA is the way to go. Save the cash, rent the house form the government.
When time to sell if you “make money”, than fine. If not no big deal, walk away. There is no incentive to the do the right thing any more or play by the rules, so why do it.
“They don’t matter and they’ve proven themselves to be clueless with their centrally planned economy”
50.5,
I’m confused. Russia or the change that O promised?
#204 Agreed.
[195] schabadoo
“You forgot to add ’stay off my lawn!’.”
I let my Mini-14 do the talking for me.
[195] schab
“Their morals are decaying. What is to become of them?”
Well, to quote Morgan Freeman’s character, God, “Ever hear of the Dark Ages?”
I also agree that the walk away option is huge too for low DPs and is basically becoming standard practice. The threat is so credible at this point that you could probably never even have to do it and could just get a principal reduction instead.
“The threat is so credible at this point that you could probably never even have to do it and could just get a principal reduction instead.”
I agree. It’s amazing, who would have thought that John Q would have the upper hand over the banksters?
Well, to quote Morgan Freeman’s character, God, “Ever hear of the Dark Ages?”
Oh, give it time.
Idiocracy was a documentary, right?
love Idiocracy
#211 Exactly, It is now no big deal. With the exception of doing the right thing (and the thanklessness that it entails), one would be foolish not to take advantage of it.
#kettle1 says:
We really are turning into zimbabwe! Machetes and knives are a favorite tool in zimbabwe violence!
very disturbing though. You have to be very messed up to randomly decide to hack someone up for sport
not if it is life or death, which is what some places devolve to
BC– you probably already know my view that the average homedebtor is in no way a victim and has actually benefitted greatly from this whole scam. Living above his means for several years likely with no tangible consequence. Ability to string out foreclosure process for a very long time and live in house payment free. No income for forgiveness of indebtedness and various other federal programs designed to keep this guy in a house which he never owned a piece of.
The people who have really gotten hosed are those that never bought into this scam and lost their jobs anyway.
“BC– you probably already know my view that the average homedebtor is in no way a victim and has actually benefitted greatly from this whole scam.”
Skep,
Yep.
184. Awesome article.
217. Credit cards have been raping Americans for years. A reasonable and fair mortgage is another matter entirely. But taxes? The real funny thing is the whole “qualifying” process and the fact that the high end is taking a major dump. Those with real money may be fine, but those who stretched and creatively afforded these mortgages…are screwed. I suppose my big phobia was going over the $325k mark. While lots of people were jumping into $500k homes….I simply refused.
As a result, we are fine. This whole mess is really fascinating.
Skepn 217
Amen.
[213] schab,
Sure as heck isn’t a fictional concept.
[184] qwerty,
That was the killing I was talking about, but I never heard the story about the one’s who survived by getting the hoods to back off. Scary stuff, and makes me wonder what I avoided on the occasions when I “warned off” someone by silently offering to introduce them to my little friend.
The article says the story ran in the Union Leader (no surprise, it’s the only major paper in the state), but that the other media outlets never ran it. I am really surprised the Globe or Herald never did, but then they are MSM papers and can’t upset the masters on Beacon Hill by promoting gun ownership.
Update on the negotiations:
Ok, so after they lowered their price 40K from ask, the last 5k seems to really be a big deal for them. Sellers are digging in, holding their price level here and its officially a stand off.
My realtor tells me that the sellers agent is considering buying the house for herself at this price because its such a low price.
That sounds like a conflict to me, not to mention a load of bs. Anyway, I told him she can have it and to call me if they cave in.
Veto,
time to fire you Realtor, face to face. This sh#t has got to stop and it won’t if we all keep on blowing it off. I am guilty of this but never again.
“My realtor tells me that the sellers agent is considering buying the house for herself at this price because its such a low price.
That sounds like a conflict to me, not to mention a load of bs.”
In fact, I can here to bullsh#t exchange now.
Buyers agent : “they are sticking to that 5k, won’t counter”
Sellers agent: ‘What??!! Its still 40k off the ask!!! Hell, I’LL BUY THE DAMN THING.”
Buyers Agent to you : “The seller’s agent is GOING TO BUY IT! Better act now!”
Freakin BS
Because, you know, that agent collects houses, like Hummels. Are we to believe she’s planning a flip? Just going to up and move her family just like that? Sure.
Veto, good work. The dopes I’m working with “threatened” me by saying “take the price now or we’re moving forward with our two day open house/garage sale extravaganza”. I said good luck and my offer drops $1,000 each day that passes. This conversation happened last Friday and they called 8:44am Monday morning accepting my offer. I even turned the knife a little and said leave the pool table and the we have a deal.
Not a big handgun fan, but I’ve got no problem with rifles, shotguns. As in most politicized arguments both sides are too extreme. Dems are no guns what so ever and the NRA/Repubs want everyone to carry multiple handguns and assault rifles. Should people have tec-9’s, M-16s, Ak47’s, no that is insane. Should people in a city setting have handguns, probably not. Out in the country it is not a huge issue. A 22 cal rifle is totally reasonable and should be relatively easy for a citizen with a clean record to get.
The problem with politics is instead of focusing on what works their is this overarching goal of following a political ideology. This is not a one size fits all world and in some areas right wing concepts work better, in other left wing. The problem comes when politicians lose focus of what works to please their “Party” or base.
I’m surprised the guy was so suspicious in that rural area. When I am in a city or populated area my guard it up but out in the country I usually am not quite as guarded. At least in the ghetto I am fairly certain they just want my money and more likely than not at worst I’ll get beat up. Up in VT I was under the assumption that most people still keep doors unlocked and crime is relatively non-existent.
jcer, people in the city need handguns. 911 is a joke. Of course, a home security system that is not hard wire dependent is the option but a gun is a close 2nd. Both are ideal.
“Should people in a city setting have handguns, probably not.”
Also, like the article above (184) stresses, do NOT open your door hen someone knocks. Answer with it closed and evaluate.
From an ASCAP newsletter this afternoon:
“Anybody who says, ‘I’m only in it for the music’ will find himself washing cars and wondering where the money went,” said Paul Stanley. “Gene and I believe in working hard and making no apologies for what we get…for the hard work…File-sharing, that’s like me stealing your car and telling you I’m sharing your transportation.”
Secondary,
You ae a negotiator after my own heart. Excellent work!
Shore
Out of curiosity, why do you get these ASCAP newsletters? How are you involved in the music business?
Re: Social Distortion
Does anyone want a ticket for the AC show on the 17th?
Completely twisted that we have a group of somewhat informed professionals here that are advocating low down payments so that the option of walking away from your mortgage remains an option. I can’t say that I disagree and I would do the same if the situation presented itself to this day. I guess this is the new financial reality of the 21st century.
If I had a mortgage I would seriously consider not paying it to force a cram down of the principal. Maybe it’s not something that banks are willing to do yet, but at least I could park some money until they told me to resume paying.
The sad reality is that the majority of people getting help will need it again because behind every poor soul that lost their job and fell behind, are families that used the HELOC to buy cars, take trips, and fill the bonus room with imported crap.
230: jcer, the guy’s dog was going ballistic prior and uncharacteristically wouldn’t come to the door. Also, maybe revisionis history, but claims to have felt as though being watched. Not so suscpicious.
A friend, who is a cop advised to always have a cell phone handy as well. Maybe no service where they were?
Barbara, I live in a city, handguns won’t help. Either the criminal is a burglar and is scared off by people being home or an alarm system(yes they work, more so in cities) or they are the stupid violent kind, you having a handgun more often than not, will make the situation worse. The idea is not to get shot, handguns are only necessary away from the home, within the home a rifle should be enough, if your home is secured properly you’ll have plenty of time to get your shot gun and blast the piece of crap trying to get in, if you are so inclined. I live in a place with a relatively understaffed police department, if you call and reported a home invasion they would be there in less than 15 minutes, anything else takes a long time for a response but serious issues, they seem to respond quickly.
FYI, not the most popular crime, if you are going to get robbed it will be outside your home and either at gunpoint, and they’ll get you by surprise or even more likely, you’ll be blindsided by a rock, brick or other hard object at which point you’ll be unconscious and they’ll take what they want. Also these criminals attack in packs so, a gun only does so much, you shoot one of them and your dead, me with 1 gun against 6 armed thugs doesn’t sound like a winning proposition.
For most, people a handgun would not help, now those who are highly trained, skilled marksmen might fair better. Most people don’t have the composure in an attack situation on the street to successfully use a concealed handgun. It is simply impractical and leads to more hand guns which pose a risk because you don’t know whose carrying.
jcer,
I lived in Philly. Called 911 two times. Two times they never showed up. 911 is a joke. Gun, alarm system, alert dog.
My dog might look scary, but she’d probably be happy to meet anyone that walks in the door.
241,
I’ve owned little terriers over the years. They can hear a snaussages bag being opened from across the street. Nothing gets by them noise wise and they yap well.
relo, the guy clearly did the right thing as he is still alive. This is why when I get a home I’m gating the whole thing(tastefully mind you), installing surveillance cameras, a security system, getting a large dog, etc., the only people actually making it to the home are those I let in. I’m slightly paranoid. Big difference from my parent, they still leave their doors unlocked frequently, and still have never been burgled. i guess that’s one benefit of living in a wealthy area.
242 Barbara
I have a rottweiler. She doesn’t bark much at all. But when she does, she sounds so much scarier then she really is.
my dad still leaves his cars and front doors unlocked, its so weird.
Barbara my experience with calling JCPD is limited to a fight among some teenagers(like 30) that looked as if it involved people being beaten with pipes happening outside of my apartment, after I called they showed up in like 13 minutes and that was not 911 it was the local precinct number. I still prefer alarm and a giant terrier trained to kill, I agree with your terrier assessment but would prefer size along the lines of an Airedale, 90lbs of terrier is frightening and loud.
I knew Philly was a poorly run city, but that is pathetic.
my dad still leaves his cars and front doors unlocked, its so weird.
Wait, I shouldn’t do that?
The end is nigh….
Cops: Women beat up gal because they didn’t like her karaoke singing
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Last Updated: 2:03 PM, October 8, 2009
Posted: 10:02 AM, October 8, 2009
STAMFORD, Conn. — Six young Connecticut women have been arraigned on assault charges accusing them of beating up another woman because they didn’t like the way she was singing karaoke. Five of the women were arraigned Wednesday in Stamford Superior Court, and the other appeared in court Monday. Police say the attack on the 25-year-old woman from Port Chester, N.Y., happened on the night of Sept. 23 when she was singing a Spanish song at Bobby Valentine’s Sports Gallery Cafe in Stamford. Authorities say the six women, all under the legal drinking age of 21, knocked the singer to the floor, punched her and pulled her hair. The victim suffered bruises and a chipped tooth. The defendants are charged with third-degree assault and other crimes. They’re due back in court later this month. Top: Danielle Swanson, Chaniel McRae, Kiana Strickland. Bottom: Martisa Chambers, Michelle Rosedom, Deja Hines.
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STAMFORD, Conn. — Six young Connecticut women have been arraigned on assault charges accusing them of beating up another woman because they didn’t like the way she was singing karaoke.
Five of the women were arraigned Wednesday in Stamford Superior Court, and the other appeared in court Monday.
Police say the attack on the 25-year-old woman from Port Chester, N.Y., happened on the night of Sept. 23 when she was singing a Spanish song at Bobby Valentine’s Sports Gallery Cafe in Stamford.
Authorities say the six women, all under the legal drinking age of 21, knocked the singer to the floor, punched her and pulled her hair. The victim suffered bruises and a chipped tooth.
The defendants are charged with third-degree assault and other crimes. They’re due back in court later this month.
Top: Danielle Swanson, Chaniel McRae, Kiana Strickland. Bottom: Martisa Chambers, Michelle Rosedom, Deja Hines.
Great! Your site is finally back up. I was beginning to wonder…
nom: a possible solution…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4sZ2A04GrY
250 ChiFi
Cops in Tampa always told DH if you shoot them outside, drag the body inside.
jcer I think an Airdale will be our next dog but I hear they can be a handful.
IMO, the whole, ‘just walk away’ strategy to putting down a small dp is much easier said than done. Esp if you have a family, spent time picking out the house, the moving factor, stress of walking away and starting over, ruined credit, etc.
Anyone here ever walk away from a house they owned?
I understand wanting to hold the cash… Just sayin’…
“Time to fire you Realtor”
Barbara, After all the places hes shown us, it would take a true a-hole to drop him now. Nobody deserves that but i like your attitude.
Im at the point where he is good at showing us places, he is on time and organized and courteous. But, when it comes to negotiating the deal i dont listen to a word he says anymore. During this latest round of negotiations i basically did the exact opposite every step of the way. And we didnt argue once. i just dont hear him anymore.
“the whole, ‘just walk away’ strategy is much easier said than done.”
Yikes, i agree. It only makes sense under extreme circumstances.
Still another 10-30% price decline over the next 5-10 years could create such an environment.
Basically, this is just a recession for most people but if you’re the one to get laid off it becomes a depression and all of the sudden a credit score doesnt mean much.
“I said good luck and my offer drops $1,000 each day that passes.”
Secondary, This is good stuff.
Veto,
I won’t lie, I was some what nervous but I knew statistics were on my side. After they agreed to my price, my Realtor actually told me she drove by the home on Saturday and almost lost her lunch when she saw the line of cars in front of the house. Thankfully it was garage sale related more so open house related.
Yikes, the scenario we are all talking about here is a house that is significantly under water and you get laid off, no prospects. Not exactly far fetched. So, off the top of my head, 20% down vs 3.5% down is like a 300-400 dollar a month difference on a 400-500 house?
So lets say you put 20% down then go belly up, house is worth 30% less and you have no income. My guess is that 20% down price will be just as impossible to pay than the 3.5% price if the unemploymeny goes on long enough. So in the end, there is no real benefit to putting all that money down. The PMI is reasonable insurance to be able to maintain a very sizable sum of money in your accounts.
should read:
“My guess is that 20% down price will be just as impossible to pay AS the 3.5% price if the unemployment goes on long enough
jcer 239
if your home is secured properly you’ll have plenty of time to get your shot gun
I call BS on this. Unless you keep a loaded shotgun by the door, the 1 - 2 minutes it takes to kick in a door or window and enter the home is not enough time to get, unlock, and load a weapon.
I will also say that rifles are more dangerous then handguns. Rifles have a much larger effective range then pistols. and rifle rounds are generally more powerful then handgun rounds.
261.
subtle
spam
Everyone should own multiple guns, tasers, mace and at least one pit bull.
Oh, and scythes are vastly underrated as a defensive weapon.
And the problem with this is?
QUINCY, Mass. (AP) - A Massachusetts couple are accused of hurling coins and safety cones at McDonald’s cashiers in Quincy when they didn’t get enough french fries.
Christine Galipeau of Quincy and Eugene Jackson of Boston have pleaded innocent to assault and battery in the Tuesday incident.
Police say Galipeau threw coins at one cashier and fought her when she got small fries instead of a large order.
Jackson is accused of throwing a cone from the mopped floor at the cashier, then tossing another one at a second cashier who copied their license plate, cutting her nose.
Second try. Imagine the carnage if this had involved a fish sandwich:
QUINCY, Mass. (AP) - A M@ssachusetts couple are accused of hurling coins and safety cones at McD0nald’s cashiers in Quincy when they didn’t get enough french fries.
Christine Galipeau of Quincy and Eugene Jackson of Boston have pleaded innocent to @ssault and b@ttery in the Tuesday incident.
Police say Galipeau threw coins at one cashier and fought her when she got small fries instead of a large order.
Jackson is accused of throwing a cone from the mopped floor at the cashier, then tossing another one at a second cashier who copied their license plate, cutting her nose.
Veto - congrats! Hopefully it will work out. Regarding the fees, though - definitely get an itemized list sooner rather than later. I’ve seen some outrageous PMI premiums for buyers putting less than 20% down.
“And there you have a demonstration of what programmed, brain-washed group-think is all about: the fate of American Capitalist Corporate Communism will be determined by an $8,000 stimulus check. The market can only sustain its overbought levels compliments of taxpayers’ generous subsidies to those who believe that renting is some form of inhuman cruelty banned by the Geneva convention. But then you still have those hundreds of billions in FHA losses that are yet to be “uncovered.”
Rosie summarizes this idiocy best: “Are we supposed to go when the fundamentals deteriorate because Uncle Sam will come to the rescue? We are confused. If state capitalism works, shouldn’t we be investing heavily in Venezuela?” Yet the adage “good news is good news, and bad news is good news” only works when Obama’s Moral Hazard doctrine is fully accepted by all market players as the prevailing trading paradigm. It is simply moronic to assume that Congress would be “so stupid” as to let natural supply and demand find their intersection points. If that were to happen, the US economy would crater so fast it would make Usain Bolt seem slower than Art Cashin.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/how-fate-equity-market-lies-8000-tax-credit
260.kettle1 says:
October 8, 2009 at 8:25 pm
jcer 239
if your home is secured properly you’ll have plenty of time to get your shot gun
I call BS on this. Unless you keep a loaded shotgun by the door, the 1 - 2 minutes it takes to kick in a door or window and enter the home is not enough time to get, unlock, and load a weapon.
I will also say that rifles are more dangerous then handguns. Rifles have a much larger effective range then pistols. and rifle rounds are generally more powerful then handgun rounds.
Have the house wired with C4 and connect detonator via wireless to your medical alert buzzer. Problem solved. Some one breaks in while watching TV, Boom. Just remember not to press the TV remote by mistake.
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE
…Take a look at this bargain. I could not believe my eyes when I saw it. This beautiful home, with the FINEST MATERIALS and WORKING SHUTTERS for a mere $950K (ignore the fact that it’s a 3BR cape on 0.2 acres).
http://www.trulia.com/property/1082620932-12-Yarmouth-Rd-Chatham-NJ-07928
269 rgb
lets all email her using the link, acting all crazy interested. Hello recovery!
what would a “nonworking shutter” look like?. Fixed hinges?
Dear Realtor,
I couldn’t help notice your 3 br listing for one million dollars.
Where do i sign?
Confused. Ha. Love that c4 security idea.
Hopefully friends dont drop bye unexpectedly. Would get their legs blown off.
where’s stu and gator? Lots of Montclair reductions on Trulia. Nice
Barabara,
I already sent her an email telling her I didn’t feel comfortable stealing from someone, as that house is not worth a penny less than $5,000,000. I told her to have the sellers contact me if they want to get rich or need the name of a good psychiatrist.
275. hehehe
I think it’s wrong to taunt a hard working realtor just because you’re too cheap to pay for a good house in a good neighborhood. If you don’t want the damn house, just move on. It’s not right to pour brine into the wound of a hard working realtor who’s trying to make a damn living. E-mailing her with anything other than an legitimate offer is probably borderline fraud.
Besides, there’s nothing wrong with the price of that house. It’s in a good town.
275.RGB says:
October 8, 2009 at 9:54 pm
Barabara,
I already sent her an email telling her I didn’t feel comfortable stealing from someone, as that house is not worth a penny less than $5,000,000. I told her to have the sellers contact me if they want to get rich or need the name of a good psychiatrist
X-underwear, you down here yet?
Ah, a quiescent RE101 takes the bait.
Lady, my hate for you will endure FOREVER.
278.Pat says:
October 8, 2009 at 10:22 pm
X-underwear, you down here yet?
279.zieba says:
October 8, 2009 at 10:47 pm
Ah, a quiescent RE101 takes the bait.
Look grasshopper, I didn’t say two words to you did I? What’s say we try this–don’t speak to me unless you’re spoken to by me. NOW SHUT UP!
You’re bugging me and I don’t like it when people bug me.
Re, unoIhaychu2 after all these years, right?
You gon be OK, chincapoo? Some folks are worried boutcha.
[250] chifi
A tad excessive, donchya think?
Kettle is right, problem with using a rifle for home defense is high velocity slugs flying through the countryside.
Very dangerous. low velocity handgun slugs or shotgun much safer.
[247] schab,
Yes, and you should have a sign on the lawn that says “Guns should be banned.”
Barbara says:
October 8, 2009 at 8:17 pm
Yikes, the scenario we are all talking about here is a house that is significantly under water and you get laid off, no prospects. Not exactly far fetched. So, off the top of my head, 20% down vs 3.5% down is like a 300-400 dollar a month difference on a 400-500 house?
So lets say you put 20% down then go belly up, house is worth 30% less and you have no income. My guess is that 20% down price will be just as impossible to pay than the 3.5% price if the unemploymeny goes on long enough. So in the end, there is no real benefit to putting all that money down. The PMI is reasonable insurance to be able to maintain a very sizable sum of money in your accounts.
but barbara, how likely is it that if you buy a house today, that it will lose 30% in value?
maybe if you bought in 06/07 your house dropped 30% … but do you really think prices will go down 20/30% from here? there might be 2-3 areas in the country where that is remotely possible (LV, Cali, Fla).
and since we’re dealing with fictitious scenarios … I’m going to guess nobody is going to put down 20% right now and have NOTHING left in the bank. that is suicidal.
again - i agree with 90% of what the folks on this board say. they have helped me greatly (selling before it got bad, gold, SKF, etc). perhaps i feel a big downpayment is wise because that’s what we did. but i really believe that jingle mail is not nearly as easy as it sounds (unless you bought in 05-07).
frank’s latest work…
http://www.deadmalls.com
sl
Barbara 274 - Stu is in Las Vegas playing in a Candy Land Tournament.
I think we have all but given up on Montclair for the 2nd home purchase. We are almost entirely focused on Glen Ridge now. Very little inventory, so I think we are just waiting to see what comes online in the spring.
Vegan friends disappointed in me because I won’t vote for Corzine. Better not let em know that Stu gave Lil Gator some meat or they’ll probably run us our of town before we are ready to go.
Lost,
In the words of ASCAP “I make music.”
“I think its wrong to taunt a hard working realtor just because youre too cheap to pay for a good house in a good neighborhood”
I agree that it is wrong. Then again, so much of what is wrong feels so bloody good, as is the case with this particular sport.
Shore,
One of my all time favs. Besides BTR, Human Touch, Rosie, Sandy, Saint in The City, Bobby Jean, Because the Night,…….
287.
Gator I have very liberal vegan friends too and also won’t vote for Corzine hehe
Luckily they do not live in Montclair.
Shore writes the songs that make the whole world sing. He writes the songs of love and spe-e–cial things…..