Wealthy foreigners buying homes?

From the NY Times:

Overall, International Interest in U.S. Real Estate Has Waned

Despite plummeting prices, international interest in United States property cooled in the last year, according to an annual survey by the National Association of Realtors, a U.S. organization of property agents.

From May 2008 to May 2009 foreign nationals purchased an estimated 154,000 homes in the United States, down from 170,000 in the previous 12 months, the survey found. Twenty-three percent of the agents questioned reported at least one contact with an international client, down from 26 percent in 2008 and 32 percent in 2007.

And agents in the top four states for international sales — Florida, California, Texas and Arizona — reported their international business actually increased 35 to 45 percent in the period.

In May 2009, with currency exchange ranges fluctuating, the average U.S. home price was $218,300, compared with $278,100 in Canada and $237,900 in Britain, according to the association’s data.

International buyers paid a median price of $247,100 for existing homes, compared with a median sales price of $198,100 in 2008, the new study found. Buyers from India paid the highest median price, $322,200.

Most international buyers came from Canada, Britain, Mexico, India and China, in that order, the survey showed. And while the numbers from Canada, Britain and China declined, those from Mexico and India increased.

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314 Responses to Wealthy foreigners buying homes?

  1. grim says:

    From Reuters:

    Anti-Foreclosure Programs Not Enough: Watchdog

    Government programs to fight the U.S. home foreclosure crisis look increasingly inadequate and should be reworked, expanded and supplemented with new ideas, a congressional watchdog said in a report Friday.

    With a foreclosure filing occurring every 13 seconds, the United States is mired in a housing slump that is destroying billions of dollars in property values and threatening to choke off the economy’s recovery from a stubborn recession.

    The foreclosure crisis has moved beyond subprime mortgages into the prime mortgage market, said the Congressional Oversight Panel for the Troubled Asset Relief Program, the $700 billion bailout launched under the Bush administration.

    “Rising unemployment, generally flat or even falling home prices, and impending mortgage rate resets threaten to cast millions more out of their homes,” according to the report, which focused on the Treasury Department’s efforts to curb foreclosures.

  2. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Corzine details how he will close N.J.’s $8B deficit

    If elected to a second term, Corzine said, he would look to close an estimated $8 billion deficit next year through a series of steps — a smaller contribution to the state pension system, a 2,000-employee reduction in the state workforce and the possible continuation of an income tax surcharge on the wealthy.

  3. Outofstater says:

    Our president won the Nobel Peace Prize????? HUH????????

  4. Schumpeter says:

    Feh. Corzine? Christie?

    Don’t vote. You are better off doing something productive or spending time with your kids. Voting only convinces TPTB that we’re more or less compliant in their plot to destroy anyone not employed in the financial or gubmint sector.

  5. Schumpeter says:

    stater (3)-

    This should make O about five degrees more unbearable than he already is.

  6. Schumpeter says:

    One day closer to oblivion.

  7. Outofstater says:

    Okay, I knew the Nobel committee, at least for the Peace Prize, was a bunch of political hacks but this… I’m stunned.

  8. Essex says:

    Hey! I want a pony (Nobel) too!!!

  9. DL says:

    Got the first slew of properties from our agent. Almost all over 100+ DOM. Minimal price reductions, if any. I suspect most have to get a specific number out of their house and can’t afford to settle for less. This promises to be a real waiting game.

  10. Essex says:

    Buy a house today and get this free commemorative Barack Obama Nobel Peacemaker Pistol!!!

  11. DL says:

    Ref Peace Prize: think of it this way, we get to hear another speech. A consolation prize for being snubbed in Denmark?

  12. DL says:

    My Italian friends have totally dropped the idea of buying a condo in NYC.

  13. crossroads says:

    9
    ” This promises to be a real waiting game.”

    Major understatement. Anyone in foreclosure has 2 years to hope for recovery while listing at absurd prices. If your not in foreclosure your going to list high and hope for recovery. I don’t know how much of the market has to sell but it doesn’t seem like a big %.

  14. Essex says:

    A Nobel prize? Dy-No-MITE!!!

  15. yo'me says:

    Bi is Bernanke the next one to win the nobel peace price?You called for it awhile ago.With Omama winning it,you got a chance.

  16. Schumpeter says:

    Nobel committee = gang of anti-Semitic Eurohacks.

  17. freedy says:

    well the question of the day.

    how long can you stay,if you decide to
    stop paying the mortgage?

    year ,two,or longer.

    seems the banks don’t want the homes back

  18. DL says:

    13: We can afford to wait. We could do an all cash deal and only thing driving our decision is we want to return to the U.S. although that is a whole other discussion. But right now we see nothing new coming on the market in Montgomery Co, just the same tired properties with fansasy pricing. We’ll spend two weeks looking but we don’t have high hopes.

  19. Essex says:

    Now for a limited time only…the HOPE speeches of Barack Obama and this collector Plate can yours from the Franklin Mint.

  20. crossroads says:

    freedy

    “how long can you stay,if you decide to
    stop paying the mortgage?”

    I asked the same question over the weekend and most seemed to think up to 2 years. So if your a renter waiting for prices to return to normal relative to income there is a ways to go

  21. Orion says:

    It’s bad enough that Earth’s real estate has been bombed. Today, at 12:30pm, NASA will do it to the Moon.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/10/08/moon-bombing-video-watch_n_313945.html

  22. #2 – a smaller contribution to the state pension system, a 2,000-employee reduction in the state workforce and the possible continuation of an income tax surcharge on the wealthy.

    WTF is any of this going to do to cut $8 bil?
    Why even bother cutting 2K empoyees when the state has 150+K? **
    A smaller contribution to the pension fund? How will this help. You owe them the money, you’re just delaying the inevitable?
    Just admit that the state is bankrupt already, you tool.

    ** I suppose the joke would go, “He’s cutting 2K jobs to eliminate 6K salaries….”.

  23. Essex says:

    20. I personally know someone who stayed a year.

  24. kettle1 says:

    Grim 2

    a smaller contribution to the state pension system,

    Bright idea, hurray for kicking the can down the road

  25. Essex says:

    21. Lights out! Lights out in Lonnnnndon!

  26. kettle1 says:

    BO and the Nobel????

    What exactly has he done? Hope & Change TM?

    This stinks of some serious political theater. What sort of favors are being exchanged for this?

  27. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    BO got the Nobel Peace Prize for reaching out to Muslims (other than those Muslims living in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan).

  28. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Mr O’Bama is doing the impossible…..he’s making George W. Bush look like a genius.

    Here a just a few of BHO’s accomplishments –

    If George W. Bush had made a joke at the expense of the Special Olympics, would you have approved?

    If George W. Bush had given Gordon Brown a set of inexpensive and incorrectly formatted DVDs, when Gordon Brown had given him a thoughtful and historically significant gift, would you have approved?

    If George W. Bush had given the Queen of England an iPod containing videos of his speeches, would you have thought this embarrassingly narcissistic and tacky?

    If George W. Bush had bowed to the King of Saudi Arabia , would you have approved?

    If George W. Bush had visited Austria and made reference to the non-existent “Austrian language,” would you have brushed it off as a minor slip?

    If George W. Bush had filled his cabinet and circle of advisers with people who cannot seem to keep current in their income taxes, would you have approved?

    If George W. Bush had been so Spanish illiterate as to refer to “Cinco de Cuatro” in front of the Mexican ambassador when it was the 5th of May (Cinco de Mayo), and continued to flub it when he tried again, would you have winced in embarrassment?

    If George W. Bush had mis-spelled the word “advice” would you have hammered him for it for years like Dan Quayle and potatoe as proof of what a dunce he is?

    If George W. Bush had burned 9,000 gallons of jet fuel to go plant a single tree on Earth Day, would you have concluded he’s a hypocrite?

    If George W. Bush’s administration had okayed Air Force One flying low over millions of people followed by a jet fighter in downtown Manhattan causing widespread panic, would you have wondered whether they actually get what happened on 9-11?

  29. homeboken says:

    How can a commander in chief of a nation that is actively engaged in wars on multiple fronts be considered the greatest merchants of peace in the world?

    The most disturbing part to me is that the campaigning for term 2 will begin in 3 months.

  30. kettle1 says:

    Re guns in the home from last night:

    Best general purpose weapon for the home is a 12ga shotgun with 00 shot. It will permanently stop a person without a doubt, has a fairly tight shot group and does not generally over penetrate after passing through a human body (have seen gelatin tests with dry wall behind the gelatin).

    if you really want a rifle, be sure to use high velocity frangible rounds (just my 2 cents). This type of round will have stopping power, but will disintegrate on impact with the target

  31. Shore Guy says:

    Get this, the deadline for Peace Prize nominations was two weeks after he took office. This just diminishes that award to the point of folly. Heck, Bill Clinton did far more to advance peace than B.O.

    Heck, for years I have wanted peace too. Even Ronald Reagan advocated eliminating all nuclear weapons and he set in forth the actions to bring down the USSR, which freed millions and reduced the threat of WWIII. This really is pathetic. I guess it is like the lottery, one has to play to win. All of us who have a vision of a peaceful world should nominate ourselves next year. I for one have a vision of economic growth and a cancer-free world, so I will be nominating myself for the Nobel Prizes in Medicine and Economics, that way I can have two like Nom.

    “The Messiah. The Messiah!”

  32. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Are those available at gun shows?

  33. George Soros says:

    We will get a lot more foreign buyers if we stop those government anti foreclosure programs. Let the market take care of the problem.

    Those foreign buyers will inject the money to our housing markets and our economy.

  34. kettle1 says:

    HEHE

    Are those available at gun shows?

    The 12ga shotgun or the nobel peace prize?

    You can certainly pick up a 12 guage and probably a nice replica nobel peace prize as well.

  35. voice_of_reason says:

    don’t be haters, all u white right wingers out there…

  36. crossroads says:

    23

    i know someone who hasn’t paid mortgage since march 2008 and has no chance of saving themselves they couldn’t afford it in the 1st place. I think Govt intervention will only delay inevitable. they need to weed out people who shouldn’t be there in the 1st place.

  37. Essex says:

    35. Uh. No. try again.

  38. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    O = GWB’s 3rd term.

  39. Essex says:

    Man alive it is going to be fun on the ol’ blogosphere 2day.

  40. pricedOut says:

    Re. Wealthy foreigners buying homes?

    Attributed to Abe Lincoln: You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.

    The gig is up, all of the people were fooled for a while (except a very few minority here, I suppose), some of the people are still fooled. But, slowly, now, all of the people are coming around to the realization that what goes up must come down – despite intrusive market manipulation, this ship is sinking.

  41. John says:

    Abe Lincoln was a great man, he grew up in a log cabin he built himself.

  42. A.West says:

    The Nobel people could have come up with a better excuse, like, he wins the prize for being the first black US president, and not causing race riots. Their current excuse is basically that he went to a few meetings, like just about any president, and wasn’t GWB, so he wins! By that standard, why didn’t Hillary Clinton win? Didn’t she also meet with some foreigners too?

    I visited eight countries in the past 12 months, tallked with people from around the world at conferences, and I sometimes left tips. Where’s my prize?

  43. kettle1 says:

    A west;

    Well did you just hand out a few trillion in “loans” to foreign central banks????

  44. grim says:

    Mother Theresa – 45 years in service to the poor of Calcutta.
    Nelson Mandela – 27 years in prison for opposing Aparthied
    Dalai Lama – A lifetime of devotion to peace
    Barack Obama – 2 weeks in office and a few campaign speeches

    I’m disgusted.

  45. freedy says:

    suprised that al gore did not get it.

  46. Schumpeter says:

    Anybody else here need more proof that gubmint is our avowed enemy and will not stop until they render us impoverished and homeless?

  47. Cindy says:

    Shore, Remember the SNL skit I posted on Sunday?

    Obama’s Accomplishments: Jack and Squat

    I wanted to repost this AM – pulled.

  48. gary says:

    I’m simply flabbergasted. And it doesn’t matter your political affiliation, I just don’t get it. GWB might have been silly and awkward at times but I really think he had a heart. I believe this guy we have now is harboring some anger and resentment and is blatantly narcissistic.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091009/ap_on_re_eu/eu_nobel_peace_18

  49. relo says:

    I heard BO is front-runner for AL MVP too. And NL CY Young. What, no Fields Medal?

  50. Schumpeter says:

    grim (44)-

    Just another symptom of the dumbing-down of everything.

  51. Schumpeter says:

    Can we all agree that the US is a Third World country now?

  52. Sean says:

    Grim – Here is the reason – Hopium

    From the announcement of The Norwegian Nobel Committee

    “Only very rarely has a person to the same extent as Obama captured the world’s attention and given its people hope for a better future”

  53. gary says:

    Schumpeter,

    Things have been happening in our country in the last 12 months that I never would’ve imagined. I vaguely remember the tumultuous period of the late 60s and I’m hoping that this is just a normal cycle of shifting change in our country ultimately for the better. I just don’t know anymore.

  54. Sean says:

    re #45 – Al Gore got it two years ago.

  55. freedy says:

    the fix was in gary.

  56. 1987 Condo Buyer says:

    #44..this is just so we will not be stunned when the Iranian President wins next year!

    When my wife told me this info..I thought she was on the Daily Onion site. I still expect a note to come out that this was a hoax!

  57. Cindy says:

    http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2009/10/snl_says_obamas_done_jack_squa.html

    Okay – I found it embedded at NPR – This should work – Check it out…..

    Funny stuff…

  58. All Hype says:

    I heard Obama is going to get the Medal of Honor just cause he is commander in chief.

    Seriously, I am a pretty fair guy but this Nobel Prize award is completely ridiculous.

  59. Barbara says:

    This whole Nobel Prize thing will blow right over, right? Or was that 600 pounds of saliva I just heard collectively drip?

  60. freedy says:

    next year could be corzine, for keeping
    NJ calm

  61. Albert says:

    18.DL says:
    October 9, 2009 at 7:34 am
    13: We can afford to wait. We could do an all cash deal and only thing driving our decision is we want to return to the U.S. although that is a whole other discussion. But right now we see nothing new coming on the market in Montgomery Co, just the same tired properties with fansasy pricing. We’ll spend two weeks looking but we don’t have high hopes.

    DL – what gives in MontCo home prices? We have looked at dozens – most in poor condition and overpriced. Owners don’t have the $$ to maintain them? I thought this was an affluent area. Looking at Realty Trac I guess not – the cloths are on a revolving line courtesy of Visa and the cars must me leased.

  62. relo says:

    52: Frank, does listed for sale on website = all current inventory + pending + well behind in payments, but not yet in process + modified but soon to be behind in payments?

  63. Sean says:

    He wasn’t even President Elect when his name was submitted for consideration last September when the selection process began.

    The “short list” was created a few weeks after he was in office.

    http://nobelprize.org/nomination/peace/process.html

    HOPIUM folks……..

  64. SG says:

    Pelosi said she is also looking into extending and expanding a popular tax credit for first-time homebuyers. The credit, set to expire Dec. 1, allows first-time homebuyers to reduce their federal income taxes by 10 percent of the price of a home, up to a maximum of $8,000.

    Pelosi said the credit could be expanded to people who already own homes, though she offered no details. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., has announced his support for extending the existing credit an additional six months.

    “The question is, would that be just first-time homeowners or would you open it up to other purchasers of homes?” Pelosi said.

    The program is scheduled to run for 11 months this year and cost a projected $6.6 billion. Extending or expanding the program would add to the costs.

    Democrats’ Proposals Add Up to Second Stimulus

  65. Outofstater says:

    This feeling of impending doom keeps growing, a little more each day. Free floating anxiety. Where are they passing out free injections of hopeium?

  66. chicagofinance says:

    Give O some slack…he has bills and Michelle needs a new dress….this appears more like an above the board bribe…..

  67. chicagofinance says:

    16.Schumpeter says:
    October 9, 2009 at 7:25 am
    Nobel committee = gang of anti-Semitic Eurohacks.

    strumpet: seriously, and with all apologies to lish….I tire of being lectured about anything by Europeans…..no pragmatism whatsoever, fueled by an intense sense of moral superiority…

  68. DL says:

    62: We’re trying to get into a train town (R-5) to Philly that also allows us to go to Doylestown for the bus to NYC. We’re willing to go up to 425k which can get you a place up to 3200 sqft. We only need 2,000. Most of these sold for 250k pre-bubble and even accounting for 5% appreciation a year, there’s no way they can justify what they’re asking. In one development, Heather Knoll, asking is consistent 399k+ and recent sales are all between 350-360k. I assume most have been heloc’d to the max and there’s very little ability for them to reduce willingly.

  69. Frank says:

    #63,
    At these price levels, the demand is so strong that all the nonsense you’re listing does not matter. Now with $15K credit coming, the housing market will explode just like in 2005.

  70. kettle1 says:

    Feds Spent $1.2 Trillion to Keep Fannie, Freddie, Others Afloat in FY 2009

    The U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve pumped a total of $1.2 trillion in investments into the U.S. mortgage market in fiscal 2009, according to a report by the government last week. The Federal Housing Finance Agency gave a full accounting of the infusions so far – most of them to the troubled government-sponsored mortgage enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

    http://www.dsnews.com/articles/feds-spent-12-trillion-to-keep-fannie-freddie-others-afloat-in-fy-2009-2009-10-07

  71. Victorian says:

    Obama winning the peace prize. Are we sure that this is not the Onion which is reporting it?

  72. lisoosh says:

    Chi – apologizing to me? Not necessary. Frankly I think both sides of the Atlantic enjoy their share of arrogance and self superiority, at least in the public forum (and the virtual world particularly). Partly due to incomplete information on both sides. In person people tend to be more reasonable. A time out is in order.

  73. Sean says:

    Funny Stuff….

    There is a misunderstanding.
    Obama did *not* win the Nobel prize for Peace.
    Indeed he won the Nobel prize in Chemistry for his groundbreaking work, together with Tim Geithner, “on how to turn bullshit into gold”.

  74. make money says:

    Now with $15K credit coming, the housing market will explode just like in 2005.

    Frank,

    You’re a idiot if you don’t buy a home with 3% down if you’re getting a 5% fixed rate and can still invest your DP.
    Add 15K free money grant, inflation around the corner, and governament backstop and where is the risk?

    As a matter of fact I would buy a home that’s more than I can afford. Strech myself out a little bit and they get my loan modified in 2010.(sarcasm off)

    Green Shoots???

    My problem is that I can’t seem to collect rent.

  75. lisoosh says:

    Economics:

    With the high and increasing levels of unemployment it strikes me that without the gov. constantly propping things up (unemployment extensions etc.) we would be seeing unbelievable levels of wage deflation. To the level where we would actually be approaching wage parity with some pretty sorry countries.

    That thought just pushed me closer to Clot’s apocalyptic vision.

    Ugh. Makes ME want cheap bourbon.

  76. scribe says:

    Fiddy,

    Obama makes me realize that a lot of the things Bush did right were the things where he said “no” to Congress – on Fannie and Freddie, on passing a huge tobacco tax hike to fund that crappy S-CHIP program.

  77. relo says:

    71: “all the nonsense you’re listing does not matter”

    Thanks for the chuckle.

  78. Laurie says:

    Hi Guys
    On a non real estate note…what here?? i am recovering from Swine Flu, this is one hell of a sickness and I don’t wish it on my worst enemy. I am in good health with no underlying immune problems and I have been wasted by this…I think this is much worse than the gov’t is leting on, slept 13 hours last night fully dressed..i was to weak to put on jammies, fun to feel well enough to try to catch up but…holy sh*t, this really stinks.

  79. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Laurie-

    Any idea how you came down with the Flu ??
    Did you come in contact with someone ??
    What were the first symptoms ??

  80. Secondary Market says:

    @70
    Dl,

    Good luck with that. My search started on the Main Line and came away w/ zilch. I had one Realtor tell me “it’s a hybrid market here, you won’t see 10% drops”. You’ll have to cross over to the Jersey side if you want that price per sqf. Cherry Hill was the winner for us, I’m not thrilled about going back to Jersey but dealing w/ Rt 70 is infinitely better than 676 any day of the week. There is also a Patco train to Center City and NJ Transit to NY. As much as I hate to admit it; It’s the lesser of two evils. (and there is little disparity in property tax).

    DL says:
    October 9, 2009 at 9:17 am

    62: We’re trying to get into a train town (R-5) to Philly that also allows us to go to Doylestown for the bus to NYC. We’re willing to go up to 425k which can get you a place up to 3200 sqft.

  81. lisoosh says:

    Hi Laurie. Sorry you feel bad.

    S-L is the expert here, but isn’t the “real” flu always debilitating? Because we tend to mix up the terms cold and flu people forget how tough it is.
    I had it a year and a half ago and I was floored for a week and run down for a month.

  82. HEHEHE says:

    Never before has somebody been awarded so much, for accomplishing so little, so quickly.

  83. PGC says:

    #69 Chi,

    Its not moral superiority, it is more a puzzlement that a nation holds on to the mantra “We’re number one and we are never wrong”

    Personally I think it is an appropriate recipient. It is a double edged sword in that it raises the expectation level for the next few years. Take a look at the responses from countries around the world. 1ran came out with a neutral response which is very telling.

    GWB alienated a lot of countries and pushed the nation out on a limb. O brought a swift change in the perception of Amer1ca in the world.

    I think the speech in Berlin, would have pushed him over the line in the voting.

  84. Secondary Market says:

    On the peace side of things:

    “Fighting for peace is like screwing for virginity” George Carlin

  85. Bystander says:

    Gotta love financial news today:

    9:00 AM – Stock futures fall on latest trade report.

    9:45 AM – Stocks up on latest trade report.

  86. 3b says:

    #82 That area will fall in price too, no different than any other place.

  87. Cindy says:

    Laurie, sorry to hear you caught it.

    A student in the classroom next to mine was diagnosed with Swine Flu. Maybe some of the students absent in my room this week have it as well.

    The minute you suspect a fever or a student complains, off to the nurse they go. The flu season is much earlier here this year. Shots aren’t even offered by the district until the end of October.

    It is Friday – time to spray the classroom down with Mark 11 after the student leave for the day. Off I go to work, Purell in my pocket.

    Have a great day all…

  88. Outofstater says:

    #80 Laurie – Just keep drinking stuff – don’t get dehydrated. Flu of any kind is the pits. For the rest of us – stock up that pantry NOW. Chicken noodle soup, saltines, 7Up, Gatorade, stuff that is easily prepared and easily tolerated. If someone you know is sick with H1N1 and lives alone, check on them and offer to take food over if they need it. Just saying.

  89. lostinny says:

    I thought I had swine flu back in June. I had a fever and felt absolutely miserable. It only lasted a day or 2. The only reason I thought it was swine flu was because I work in a school. I haven’t had a fever in years. I forgot how terrible it can make a person feel.

  90. Frank says:

    #76,
    “My problem is that I can’t seem to collect rent.”
    Why rent is you can buy with gov’s money?

  91. make money says:

    Laurie

    Sorry to hear about your flu. However, I trully hope everyone in Washington gets H1N1, and either goes home and doesn’t cause this country any harm in the next few months or just goes home and pukes his/her guts out. Then we award a nobel prize to each and everyone of them for steling money from future tax payers and handing it out to anyone who will give them a campaign contribution.

  92. Outofstater says:

    #91 Lost – I had something similar in March – was fine when I went to bed, then woke up at 4am feeling anxious and then it was a descent into he## from there – fever, zero energy, totally incapacitated. But like you, it only lasted about a day and a half. I started to recover within 24 hours, felt a little shaky the next day, but not bad. It was weird.

  93. lostinny says:

    94 Outofstater

    I know I drank a lot of liquids and took a lot of Alleve or Tylenol to bring the fever down as quickly as possible. It s@ucked. I really don’t wish that on anyone.

  94. lisoosh says:

    Veto – from the posted article:

    “Buyers from India paid the highest median price, $322,200.

    …those from Mexico and India increased.”

    And they’re all buying in your little corner of Mercer county! :-)

  95. BC Bob says:

    Shore/Sean,

    One of my all time favs. Besides BTR, Human Touch, Rosie, Sandy, Saint in The City, Bobby Jean, Because the Night,…….

    Blowoff top tonight. Sec 5D.

  96. BC Bob says:

    Great setlist. However, no “set”list.

  97. yikes says:

    crossroads says:
    October 9, 2009 at 7:37 am

    freedy

    “how long can you stay,if you decide to
    stop paying the mortgage?”

    I asked the same question over the weekend and most seemed to think up to 2 years. So if your a renter waiting for prices to return to normal relative to income there is a ways to go

    Come on, now. Be remotely realistic. Have you dealt with anyone who is facing foreclosure or this scenario in which you speak? (I know Clot has.)

    Think about this for a moment – you’re sitting in your house, not paying the mortgage, just wondering/waiting for that call or knock on the door that you’re # is up. Is that any kind of life?

    Maybe it happens in 6 months. Maybe a year. Maybe sooner, depending on your location.

    Other questions: Do you have a family? Are you ready for the stress of a sudden, frantic search to find a new place, pack all your stuff, move, all the while working and having your kids in school? Then you have to deal with the damaged credit and all that other fun stuff..

    I’m all for not paying the mortgage if you are 30% underwater and there’s no hope in sight. I do think you have to seriously plan for this though … a wily nilly, ‘ah, we’ll be good for two years’ won’t cut it …

  98. lisoosh says:

    PGC -#85 – I disagree about him being an appropriate recipient. I also disagree with Chi about the superiority.

    I think Europe likes him and wants to signal that to the US. Unfortunately they won’t/can’t learn that 1. many Americans don’t care and 2. many other Americans are actively antagonized by that like.

  99. Annie says:

    Obama wins Nobel!?!?! I’d rather see Ms. Congeniality win. She wanted stricted gun control, tougher laws for repeat offenders. Oh, and world peace.

    Why not give it to a fictional character. Oh, wait, they just did.

  100. yikes says:

    Barbara says:
    October 9, 2009 at 8:47 am

    This whole Nobel Prize thing will blow right over, right? Or was that 600 pounds of saliva I just heard collectively drip?

    If news breaks tomorrow that jay leno was extorted by a man who had proof that leon was having sex with interns …

  101. chicagofinance says:

    make money says:
    October 9, 2009 at 10:13 am

    albani: just came in the mail….
    http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0962214108/ref=ox_ya_oh_product

  102. chicagofinance says:

    lisoosh says:
    October 9, 2009 at 10:40 am
    PGC -#85 – I disagree about him being an appropriate recipient. I also disagree with Chi about the superiority.

    I think Europe likes him and wants to signal that to the US. Unfortunately they won’t/can’t learn that 1. many Americans don’t care and 2. many other Americans are actively antagonized by that like.

    l: I think what most Europeans do not realize is that many Americans WANT to hold onto the intellectual idealism that the Europeans espouse, but the U.S. is a results based society. At a certain point, we cease to have patience with idealism, and focus more on reality. What is annoying is being lectured about pragmatism as if it is an indictment of a lack of a moral compass. In reality, a lot of Europeans appear as hypocrites; not thinking beyond the eventual long-term implications of their “ivory tower” intellectual prism. Really….they open the door to future irrelevance, with the French leading the charge.

  103. kettle1 says:

    CIndy

    Just remember that Purell and other hand sanitizers WILL NOT prevent the spread of viruses like swine flu. You must still wash your hands on a very regular basis and thoroughly.

    Hand sanitizers only stop bacteria.

    I am curious if the hand sanitizer craze might actually be increasing the spread of viruses like H1N1 due to people depending on hand sanitizers and not washing their hands as often

  104. kettle1 says:

    The Housing Tax Credit: NAHB Projections and more
    by Calculated Risk

    Anyone analyzing the tax credit should call the economists at the BLS and ask about how falling rents will impact owners’ equivalent rent and CPI. Then call the economists at the Federal Reserve and ask how CPI deflation will impact consumer behavior and monetary policy. Welcome to the Fed’s nightmare.

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/10/housing-tax-credit-nahb-projections-and.html

  105. kettle1 says:

    Fed Frets About Commercial Real Estate

    Banks in the U.S. “are slow” to take losses on their commercial real-estate loans being battered by slumping property values and rental payments, according to a Federal Reserve presentation to banking regulators last month. The remarks suggest that banking regulators are girding for a rerun of the housing-related losses now slamming thousands of banks that failed to set aside enough capital during the boom to cushion themselves when the bubble burst.

    “Banks will be slow to recognize the severity of the loss — just as they were in residential,” according to the Fed presentation, which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. A Fed official confirmed the authenticity of the document, prepared by an Atlanta Fed real-estate expert who is part of the central bank’s Rapid Response program to spread information about emerging problem areas to federal and state banking examiners throughout the U.S.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125487629495569591.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLTopStories

  106. kettle1 says:

    The Most Toxic Loans in Commercial Real Estate

    Interest-only loans allow borrowers to pay only the interest on the loan for a set period of time but no principal. A lot of these loans were made at the market peak, get no benefit from amortization and have seen a decline of more than 45% in the values of the properties backing the loans, the Fed presentation notes. As a result, borrowers with these loans likely will a hard time refinancing when they come due. From 2010 through 2013, about $175 billion of five-year interest-only loans bundled into CMBS will mature, but that figure would be much bigger when it comes to interest-only commercial loans held by banks. “CMBS dollar amount is low compared to bank ‘IO’ problem,” says the Fed report, referring to interest only.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2009/10/07/the-most-toxic-loans-in-commercial-real-estate/

  107. kettle1 says:

    deflations a b1tch

    U.S. Consumer Credit Fell By $12 Billion in August
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aO13jMuWf0M4

  108. chicagofinance says:

    kettle1 says:
    October 9, 2009 at 10:58 am
    CIndy
    Hand sanitizers only stop bacteria.

    WTF are you talking about?

  109. lisoosh says:

    chicagofinance says:
    October 9, 2009 at 10:54 am

    “l: I think what most Europeans do not realize is that many Americans WANT to hold onto the intellectual idealism that the Europeans espouse, but the U.S. is a results based society. At a certain point, we cease to have patience with idealism, and focus more on reality. What is annoying is being lectured about pragmatism as if it is an indictment of a lack of a moral compass. In reality, a lot of Europeans appear as hypocrites; not thinking beyond the eventual long-term implications of their “ivory tower” intellectual prism. Really….they open the door to future irrelevance, with the French leading the charge.”

    Chi – You’re describing a Europe that exists only in the American mind. Not the actual place or people (as much as I can stereotype a multinational, multiethnic and multilingual group of hundreds of millions of people).

    As I noted before, and PGC agreed, when in Europe I find myself defending the States and when here I find myself defending Europe.

    The big problem is that each nation/entity is talking AT or PAST each other, not TO each other. They each think they are saying one thing but it is heard completely differently by the other side.
    You see European self superiority, they see American arrogance. And I disagree that the States has a hold on results and Europe on idealism. Conservative “values” are a form of idealism and European liberalism is a form of pragmatism. You just don’t understand their version of pragmatic choices and they don’t get America’s idealistic version of world events.

    I don’t see a solution apart from having each group of nationals spend extended time with people from the other side of the Atlantic and that isn’t happening soon.

  110. #111 – Hand sanitizers only stop bacteria.
    WTF are you talking about?

    Virii are not living* and, technically, can’t be killed.
    Sanitizers may help wash off virii, but so would soap and water.

    * I’m well aware that this is a somewhat arguable statement.

  111. kettle1 says:

    Chifi,

    There are only 1 or 2 hand santizers that are anti-virul. most are onyl anti-microbial. Hence the majority of hand sanitizers will not reduce viral loads present on your hands by any significant amount.

    here is a pop main stream example:
    http://pagingdrgupta.blogs.cnn.com/2009/05/07/does-hand-sanitizer-kill-bacteria-and-viruses/

    try google, plenty of medical stats support this and in fact in one of the facilities i work in that produces sterile liquids, have made a point about this.

  112. Fun NYTimes article on FHA loans;
    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/09/business/09fha.html
    The graph is worth the click alone.

  113. PGC says:

    #100 Lisooh

    Addressing and embracing the muslim world
    Adressing the issues of still smoulering race relations.
    Restarting the SALT talks.
    Getting rid of the missile shield system in Europe.
    Commitment to end the two wars.
    Starting to shut down G1tmo
    Facing up to Climate change.
    And a handshake between Netanyahu Mahmoud Abbas

  114. kettle1 says:

    Tosh,

    i use the term “kill” and deactivate/denature, interchangeably in terms of viruses. A point someone could argue against as well.

  115. Sean says:

    re #115 – Kettle1 what are my chances of catching it if i am going to ride the A train tonight and I touch the handrails will I get H1N1?

  116. #118 – Understood. The larger point we’re both making is that virii are hardy little kinda living buggers.

  117. nw says:

    Apparently 100s of millions of FHA losses are “worth it” as long as they stop housing prices from dropping too fast. What?

    Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who is chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said in an interview that the defaults were, in essence, worth it.

    “I don’t think it’s a bad thing that the bad loans occurred,” he said. “It was an effort to keep prices from falling too fast. That’s a policy.”

  118. lisoosh says:

    PGC – #117 – All good things, no argument there. But none of them have yet produced any long term results.
    I really think it was a bad move. I like Obamas approach to foreign affairs. I don’t know how many Americans realize how much an open two way dialogue is appreciated by the rest of the world or quite how much Bush was disliked for his arrogance (wrongly defined as “strength”).
    However these awards should be for concrete achievements, not just a step.

  119. kettle1 says:

    Chifi,

    another one for you, a little more authoritative:

    “Water was the most effective at removing stomach bug viruses from the hands, Emory University researchers find. They planted stomach bug viruses on volunteers’ fingers and allowed them to dry. The results, presented this week at the American Society for Microbiology Meeting in Orlando, Fla., showed the percentage of the viruses removed by water, hand soap, and alcohol-based hand sanitizer. Water removed 96 percent of the virus; liquid antibacterial soap removed 88 percent; and the hand sanitizer removed only 46 percent.”

    -Christine Moe, Emory, 2006

  120. #119 – Kettle1 what are my chances of catching it if i am going to ride the A train tonight and I touch the handrails will I get H1N1?

    The A should be fine, the L train is a different story. I once took the Soul Train and caught some funk.

  121. kettle1 says:

    Sean,

    I am not qualified to answer that question. Ask SL or an epidemiologist

  122. Sean says:

    kettle1 – how about if I lick the handrails?

    I guess I won’t have to worry about H1N1 if I do that, I will die of something much funkier….

  123. Essex says:

    Sean….wear some nice gloves. Dang.

  124. Essex says:

    And a dental damn.

  125. PGC says:

    #104 Chi

    I read a rant on a blog about cars. The person was saying

    “Don’t buy that Asian piece of Junk, buy from the Big three, they are built better.”

    Not looking to get into a discussion on the Camry build quality or the JD Power reports, but just make the point that at some point there has to be an acknowledgment that there is the remote possibility that maybe some things are better elsewhere. The made in the USA sticker does not necessarily confer Best in the world status on it.

    I asked the guy to go watch Gung Ho for his answers.
    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0091159/synopsis

  126. chicagofinance says:

    ket: I am not arguing hand washing versus sanitizer. I am taking issue with the idea that sanitizer is useless against viruses. Wholly effective? No. Superior to washing? No.

  127. make money says:

    ChiFi,

    Great read. My Dad gave it to me. I think that the fact that Albanian language, traditions, heritage and culture still exist in some variation is due to that book.

    Just think of the ottoman empire rulling us for over 500 years and we still speak Albanian and completely separate ourselves from Arabs and Turks.

    Not to mention that everyone else whom we had to fight off for freedom. Teuta was an albanian queen who ruled from Balkans to middle east. Tirana(capital) name is derived (T’Iran) meaning from here to Iran.

    I’m glad you’re coming around Albani.

    Once she’s done with leaning mandarin I will turn focus teaching my daughter albanian.

  128. PGC says:

    #122 lisoosh

    So any awards given for the middle east are invalid as there is still no solution!

    Jimmie Carter give it back!

    …… :*)

  129. kettle1 says:

    Chifi,

    e-mail these guys if you want the paper

    http://www.sph.emory.edu/moelab/Publications.htm

  130. DL says:

    Ref 82: Secondary: I know the area well. Grew up nearby. My oncologist is on Rt 70 (the other reason why we’re returning; wish me luck) and we though Cherry Hill would be good until we compared property taxes. I didn’t think a new BMW (even if it’s only a 3 series) every five years to finance the school system was worth it. We also looked at Haddonfield and Collingswood but liked the PA side better ($10 dollars for a concealed carry permit.)

  131. kettle1 says:

    Chifi,

    I am not saying Its useless, but given its generally low efectiveness at reducing viral loads and how small a viral load is needed for some virusres to infect a person, expecting the majority of hand sanitizers to protect you is not a good idea.

    In cindy’s situation of being in a classroom, that is even more the case.

  132. BC Bob says:

    It’s amazing how effective a photo op, in the White House gardens, with a white cop and a black professor can be. Was Bud Light considered in the top 10?

  133. BC Bob says:

    Chi,

    An argument pertaining to hand sanitizer? Glory Days.

  134. kettle1 says:

    BC 139

    its gets boring waiting for the world to end….

  135. DL says:

    I spend a lot of time meeting with US Ambassadors and foreign gov’t officials in Europe and elsewhere. O doesn’t have to do anything other than not be B and he will go down as the second coming of Ich bin ein Berliner. The expectation is that he will not press the Europeans on Afghainstan, he will roll on carbon emmissions, raise taxes in line with European standards (half of everything you make belongs to the gov’t), while taking care of all their security needs.

  136. lisoosh says:

    PGC – Not a fan of Carter but that shared prize was for the accord between Israel and Egypt (and Sadat was a great man who really deserved it), which still stands.
    The Rabin/Arafat one is on shakier ground although their moves at the time were pretty revolutionary and led to the peace accord between Israel and Jordan which also still stands. Both peace agreements were considerable for the area and time, even if they were bought largely with American money.

    Seriously. I like Obama’s approach to foreign affairs. I think he has made a move in the right direction and that moving things back from the mess of the last 8 years isn’t going to happen in a heartbeat. He’s doing what he should be doing.

    But this is the international version of giving a kid a medal at field day just for showing up and participating.
    Hey – maybe Europe did learn something from us after all.

  137. lisoosh says:

    DL – Just read your post. Fingers crossed, wishing you luck. Hope it isn’t too bad.

  138. lisoosh says:

    Oops, self correction, Begin and Sadat shared the ’78 prize.
    Carters a tool.

  139. make money says:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/09/business/09fha.html?_r=2&ref=business

    FHA just Fannie and Freddy will line up for a bailout in 24-36 months. No problem. benny will send his black helicopter.

  140. relo says:

    144: Can’t wait until the kids get home from school. After the Nobel discussion which I’m sure took place, they can look forward to being made valedictorian based on their potential, effort and promise.

  141. Victorian says:

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Even during his most frenzied days, when Congress is demanding answers or the president himself is calling, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner makes time to talk to a select group of powerful Wall Street bankers.

    They are a small cadre of businessmen who have known and worked with Geithner for years, whose multibillion-dollar companies all survived the economic crisis with help from U.S. taxpayers.

    In the first seven months of Geithner’s tenure, his calendars reflect at least 80 contacts with Blankfein, Dimon, Citigroup Chairman Richard Parsons or Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit.

    Geithner had more contacts with Citigroup than he did with Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., the lawmaker leading the effort to approve Geithner’s overhaul of the financial system. Geithner’s contacts with Blankfein alone outnumber his contacts with Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., chairman of the Senate Banking Committee.

    Partly this is explained by the extraordinary clout of these companies. Goldman, JPMorgan and Citigroup are among the dominant players on Wall Street. Their executives can move not just markets but entire economies. Treasury invested heavily in all of them to keep the industry afloat.

    But size does not tell the whole story. Treasury has a huge financial stake in North Carolina-based Bank of America Corp., but CEO Ken Lewis appears on Geithner’s calendars only three times. Morgan Stanley CEO John Mack also appears three times.

    Geithner’s relationship with Goldman, JPMorgan, Citigroup and their executives dates to his tenure as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. As one of Wall Street’s top regulators, Geithner worked closely with executives and built relationships he brought with him to his corner office at the Treasury Department.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/john-carney-look-who-really-controls-tim-geithner-2009-10

  142. Secondary Market says:

    DL, where in MontCo are you looking? Give or take a couple of hundred dollars, I found the taxes were comparable. Lower Marion Schools carry the same guilt/prestige factor. I agree with you though, the PA side is much better overall.

  143. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [19] essex

    Don’t laugh. Even before he was inaugurated, there was an effort mounted to get a statue of The One put on the National Mall.

    Not kidding.

    As for the Nobel, I am utterly perplexed. Utterly.

    Further, if I were in the administration, I would not see this as a political plus, but a negative. Essentially, he got an award for NOT being George Bush, not for anything substantive he might have done because he hasn’t done anything yet.

    There is a lot of spin, and none of it good for the administration, that will be made of this. They will accept it with smiles and humility because that is all they can do, but behind closed doors, they must realize that it makes their jobs harder.

  144. Essex says:

    It’s little league….the everyone gets a trophy thing.

  145. JS says:

    145 – Make

    This is my favorite part of the article:

    “Chaz Fullenkamp, an automotive technician in Columbus, Ohio, got an F.H.A. loan even though he was living on the financial edge. “If I got unemployed, I’d be wiped out in a month or two,” he says. Thanks to the F.H.A., however, he is better off than he used to be.

    Mr. Fullenkamp used F.H.A. insurance to buy a house this spring for $179,000. The eager seller paid the closing costs and also gave Mr. Fullenkamp $2,500 in cash. He immediately applied for the $8,000 tax rebate. Even taking his down payment into account, he came out ahead.

    “I knew in my heart I could not really afford the house, but they gave it to me anyway,” said Mr. Fullenkamp, 22. “I thought, ‘Wow, I’m surprised I pulled that off.’ ”

    I hope the journalist follows up with Chaz in two months and keeps us updated on the foreclosure process.

    Have we learned nothing?

  146. kettle1 says:

    JS,

    Here have some more hopium. It will make more sense then…

  147. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [49] relo

    “What, no Fields Medal?”

    That is in the bag. Given what Obama has done in the way of math with respect to taxes and the health care debate, he is a shoo-in for the award, cuz he has taken math to places it has never gone before.

  148. Secondary Market says:

    @154
    sickening.

  149. kettle1 says:

    Sean,

    I agree mostly with BC in that we are seeing both deflationary and inflationary effects at the same time in different segments of the economy.

    My personal take is that it is still a net deflationary event at this time.

    here is your deflation:
    U.S. Consumer Credit Fell By $12 Billion in August
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aO13jMuWf0M4

  150. What happened to Reuters data content dept?
    I think they’ve fired everyone and outsourced it….
    I wouldn’t have a problem with that, but these new people have no idea what I’m talking about. It’s my 5th time trying to explain the TRDVOL_1 and ACVOL_1 aren’t updating at the same time and they should be.

    /tech rant off

  151. Sean says:

    kettle1 –
    If you want to call shrinking credit lines deflation than go right ahead, however smaller portions for the same price is not deflation. Caterpillar raising prices is not deflation. Gold, Oil and commodities on the rise is not deflation. The 1.8 Trillion dollar deficit this year alone is not deflation. The banks refusing to LOAN money is not deflation.

    The deflation argument is dead, there was no deflationary spiral, it did not happen. Bernake stopped that from happening by flooding the world with dollars. Just because Joe sixpack can’t buy a SUV for 1 dollar down and can’t call and get an increase on his revolving credit line that is already overdrawn does not mean deflation.

  152. Schumpeter says:

    yikes (99)-

    It doesn’t come that way. And…even when the sheriff sale is done, the new owner (these days, the bank) will have to get an eviction and writ of execution against the owner if he doesn’t get out voluntarily. Play that angle right, and the lender is forking over 3-5K “cash for keys”.

    You can sit tight in your foreclosing- then, foreclosed house- safe in the knowledge that you will know in advance of every event that affects your ownership. You will also know that no one will ever come knocking on your door.

    “Think about this for a moment – you’re sitting in your house, not paying the mortgage, just wondering/waiting for that call or knock on the door that you’re # is up. Is that any kind of life?”

  153. DL says:

    Secondary (148): We’re looking in Lansdale, North Wales, and we have some friends who want to show us Glenside and Ambler although we already know from previous visits we probably won’t settle there. The downtown sections have seen better days. 2009 taxes on a 399k in Lansdale/North Wales are under 5k. In Cherry Hill we were looking off Rt 70 in Barclay Farms and they run 9-10k on a modest rancher. Prices have dropped tremendously for 4bd/2ba in Barclay though. Last year 4/2 homes that were initially listed at 389k are now down to 289k and still no buyers. Same taxes though.

    Lisoosh (143) Thanks. All of my cancer buddies are gone and I have no idea why I’m still alive but no complaints. One day at a time.

  154. Schumpeter says:

    sean (161)-

    The velocity of money is zero. If there were any velocity of money right now, we’d be Weimar, because the supply of money is massive and growing daily.

    The insane appetite for risk in the markets is also another sign of deflation. What artificial, hyper-liquidity is available in equity markets is being thrown wholesale at the worst quality issues.

    I might also mention that debt markets are not exactly pricing in inflation, either.

    Any discussion of inflation/deflation that strays from money and extension/destruction of credit ceases being a discussion about inflation/deflation.

  155. make money says:

    It doesn’t come that way. And…even when the sheriff sale is done, the new owner (these days, the bank) will have to get an eviction and writ of execution against the owner if he doesn’t get out voluntarily. Play that angle right, and the lender is forking over 3-5K “cash for keys”.

    You can sit tight in your foreclosing- then, foreclosed house- safe in the knowledge that you will know in advance of every event that affects your ownership. You will also know that no one will ever come knocking on your door.

    I’ve been saying this for months. It doesn’t pay to pay rent when you van own and not pay mortgage.

  156. kettle1 says:

    Sean,

    I dont disagree with any of these points

    smaller portions for the same price is not deflation. Caterpillar raising prices is not deflation. Gold, Oil and commodities on the rise is not deflation. The 1.8 Trillion dollar deficit this year alone is not deflation. The banks refusing to LOAN money is not deflation.

    In the modern economy debt IS money. and when you remove 12 billion in debt you have reduced the effective money supply by at least that much and you could argue by substantially more, since there wont be any interest payments generated from money thats not loaned out.

    Recent data shows some CMBS going for 30 cents on the dollar. Between MBS CMBS and various other debt instrument devaluing, much more then the 1.8 trillion deficit or the 500 billion loaned out by the fed has been lost. Many of the debt instruments out in the market are leveraged, so when they lose 70% of their value the market sees a much bigger actual loss.

    I do agree with you that the immediate effects of this have been delayed, but due to the accounting games that are being played and banks refusing to book loses (that would admittedly wipe them out if they did so).

    In the end the banks can only play these games for a limited period of time, perhaps years, but still limited.

  157. leftwing says:

    Nom

    I think you’re right on the admin not being particularly excited about the Nobel. Even died in the wool liberals like Matt Lauer were lukewarm this morning, setting the stage for neo-con comebacks in an effort to deflect them.

    15 years ago it would have been all flowers and joy. Thank God for the blogosphere now.

    PGC, on reasons why he should get it:
    “Addressing…”
    “Adressing…”
    “Restarting…”
    “Commitment to….”
    “Starting to…”
    “Facing up to…”
    “And a handshake…”

    But what has he DONE?

    The Chosen One has always been about image and intangibles. The Nobel is just more of the same. With his minions implementing policies that will not end well, the lack of substance and reliance on feel good will implode Him when the populace ends up actually not feeling well.

    It will end badly for Him.

  158. kettle1 says:

    leftwing

    its also a discredit to the Nobel peace prize and dulls its significant

  159. #169 – Re – This may surprise you, but those two are not mutually exclusive.

  160. skep-tic says:

    “Our president won the Nobel Peace Prize????? HUH????????”

    lectures to continue with even more sanctimony.

  161. Sean says:

    re #164- Clot let’s leave credit out the friendly discussion, since joe sixpack cannot use credit anymore to pretend he’s rich. Let’s just talk about the price of everyday stuff.

    So far we have not have 40 months of CPI deflation like what occurred from 1930 to 1933. What did we have? Well we had a half year of deflation, and the CPI now signals that has ended and prices are heading up now.

    Look at the chart below, only 1/2 a year of deflation, that is now over and prices have continued to reusme rising where they have been going for as long as we have been keeping these stats.

    http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.exe/var/cpiu-long+2008+2009+0+0+0+290+545++0

    I can predict a few things here from our discussions today. Joe Sixpack is permantly hobbled from buying a McMansion with no money down,
    there will be no vacation on the house, and the wife won’t be driving an Caddilac Escalade with a $5 latte in the cupholder to her boxtox appointment this week.

  162. bi says:

    16#, great news for grim! former president carter is a regular on his blog. btw, please go back to check how much percentege of jews has been awarded nobel prize before posting such an angry and nonsense statement.

    >Schumpeter says:
    October 9, 2009 at 7:25 am
    Nobel committee = gang of anti-Semitic Eurohacks.

  163. make money says:

    Schum(164),

    How do you explain shiny sitting pretty on $1,050? Inflation id not prices rising but rather expansion of money supply. We will not experience inflation as long as we can export it via reserve currency status.

    When that day happens say hello to hyperinflation and the fall of US as a superpower and the demise of USD.

    The more people believe this scenerio could come to pass the higher shiny will go.

  164. skep-tic says:

    #69

    “….I tire of being lectured about anything by Europeans…..no pragmatism whatsoever, fueled by an intense sense of moral superiority…”

    bingo. Europe is basically a theme park.

  165. HEHEHE says:

    Catepillar is raising prices because there’s currently an artificial bubble in commodities that is masking actual demand. It’s making their input costs skyrocket. It’s not because they have pricing power resulting from greater demand for their products.

    Once this commodities bubble pops, and it will, you aren’t going to want to be on the other side of the trade. What is going on right now directly mirrors the oil bubble in the Summer of 2008. Yes Uncle Ben is running the presses but so is every other Central Bank. Mish had an excellent piece on it the other day:

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/10/gold-and-watched-pot-theory.html

    In the long run, 20-30 years, I personally believe gold/oil etc will outperform most asset classes, especially oil. But what you have currently is pure liquidity driven speculation.

  166. A.West says:

    reinvestor101,
    You’re not “as real as a heart attack”, you’re as fake as a 3 dollar bill. Strawman sock-puppet is the appropriate term.

    “A strawman sockpuppet is a false flag pseudonym created by a user with one point of view, but acts as though the puppet has an opposing point of view, in order to make that point of view look bad and generate negative sentiment towards that view. Such sockpuppets will typically advance foolish straw man arguments that their puppeteers can then easily refute. They often act in an unintelligent, uninformed, or bigoted manner. The effect is to discredit more rational arguments for the same side.”

  167. 3b says:

    #175 Yes and they do not bathe on a regular basis too.

  168. Secondary Market says:

    DL,
    I see, I think you’ll definitely benefit from the lower tax rate out there. I had mistaken for the traditional Main line towns like, Ardmore, Gladwynn,’Nova etc..
    We actually looked a lot of homes in the Barclay Farm area, most had huge lots but the homes in general were extremely outdated for their asking prices.
    I like to think we found a deal in our recent purchase (outside the tax issues)in Charlston Woods. Although wooded, the lot is .80 acres!
    Good luck and more importantly good health!

  169. skep-tic says:

    the rest of the world wants the USA’s protection and money but doesn’t want to give anything up for it. They love O because he agrees on bended knee to keep doing what the USA has always done but asks for nothing in return (except for occassional venues for self-aggrandizement)

  170. 3b says:

    #172 Check the NY Times today re: FHA. Woman declared bankruptcy, lost house to foreclosure, divorced etc.

    Well now she is back in a house FHA of course, 3.5 down, which she took form her retirement savings (house price 134k) Closing costs rolled into the mtg.

    And she is quoted as saying in the article “it is the governments responsibility to give people a second chance.” And no she is not a check out girl at Walmaert, but rather a teacher.

    Joe six pack’s wife may have to skip the $5 latte because no more credit on the CC but they can still buy with FHA. Amerika is a great country!!!.

  171. 3b says:

    #168 It makes it a joke and an insult to all those who have devoted their lives in the search of peace.

  172. crossroads says:

    181

    article mentions mortgage is 1/2 of her take home pay. helping economy for now hurting in the long run when its another foreclosure in 2 years or so

  173. PGC says:

    This should light up the 2nd amendment debate.

    Sad story.

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/10/gun-toting_pa_soccer_mom_husba.html

  174. John says:

    Goldman Sachs has turned adversity to its advantage. It posted record second-quarter earnings of $3.44 billion, its share price has more than doubled this year and it set aside a record $11.4 billion to pay employees in the first half of 2009.

    Don’t hate the playa, hate the game

  175. PGC says:

    The top 100 universities in the world. My school missed out. It came in at 201. Interesting is that Ireland has two in the top 100. When you consider that the country has seven university’s, one of which is a seminary, that is quite an achievement.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/datablog/2009/oct/08/top-100-universities-world

  176. Essex says:

    Careful John…someone might kneecap you with statements like that.

  177. pricedOut says:

    #180

    so true…

    What’s old is new:

    Now Im calling all citizens from all over the world
    This is captain america calling
    I bailed you out when you were down on your knees
    So will you catch me now Im falling

  178. PGC says:

    Fuzzy math. Sell unit for 250 mil that makes you 371mil. What am I missing?

    Citigroup dumps Phibro, avoids showdown over $100M pay for star trader

    http://www.app.com/article/20091009/BUSINESS/91009081/Citigroup+dumps+Phibro++avoids+showdown+over++100M+pay+for+star+trader

  179. #189 – Re – No comment on Barney Frank trying to hold off the housing terrorists? He’s bankrupting the FHA to do it;

    “I don’t think it’s a bad thing that the bad loans occurred,” he said. “It was an effort to keep prices from falling too fast. That’s a policy.”

    He’s trying to save your butt, but no love from you? You are, in essence, in bed together.

  180. Young Buck says:

    184. Strapped Soccer Mom

    From the comments:
    Her husband, a parole officer, shot her. He obviously has a gun for his job. The fact that she had a gun is irrelevant in this story. Just scare tactics from the anti-gun side.

  181. reinvestor101 says:

    WTF?? Let’s get something straight. You’re not to imply that Frank is anywhere near any damn bed I’m in.

    Homey don’t play dat.

    191.toshiro_mifune says:
    October 9, 2009 at 2:48 pm
    #189 – Re – No comment on Barney Frank trying to hold off the housing terrorists? He’s bankrupting the FHA to do it;

    “I don’t think it’s a bad thing that the bad loans occurred,” he said. “It was an effort to keep prices from falling too fast. That’s a policy.”

    He’s trying to save your butt, but no love from you? You are, in essence, in bed together.

  182. PGC says:

    #194 Young Buck,

    Like I said it will light up the debate. I’m not taking sides here, but your comment is balanced against this one.

    easy answer..too many people wha are not actually cops are given guns for their jo bs..exaamples…the essex county jail riot occurre di 1979 when a jail guard smuggled in a gun to the jail,..the cop was murdered inside the essex county courthouse when a probation officer brought in a gun.neither needed a gun

  183. HEHEHE says:

    John,

    If you told me I could collect a full paycheck during the second quarter, you’d pay my credit card balances and I only had to pay 10% of my rent and utilities and could pay the rest 20 years from now I’d have a record second quarter too.

  184. leftwing says:

    The Lecturer-in-Chief spoke on financial regulation. Same diet – alot of finger wagging, ‘cannots’, and no detail.

    Also used was his favorite new twist of calling out respected institutions by name on their legitimate disagreement with his policies and branding them ‘liars’.

    How long before we see the House Committee on Un-American Activities revived?

    Better yet, who will be our generation’s Hollywood Ten?

  185. Young Buck says:

    OK, so we agree that her having a gun is irrelevant to this story.

    Re: the comment you posted. So if the husband did not have a gun for work he would not have killed her? I disagree. If you are crazy enough to kill your wife you will find a way, gun or no gun.

    194. PGC says:
    #194 Young Buck,

    Like I said it will light up the debate. I’m not taking sides here, but your comment is balanced against this one.

    easy answer..too many people wha are not actually cops are given guns for their jo bs..exaamples…the essex county jail riot occurre di 1979 when a jail guard smuggled in a gun to the jail,..the cop was murdered inside the essex county courthouse when a probation officer brought in a gun.neither needed a gun

  186. John says:

    I think there is a mistake on that list, I am pretty sure Rice University is in China.

    PGC says:
    October 9, 2009 at 2:36 pm
    The top 100 universities in the world. My school missed out. It came in at 201. Interesting is that Ireland has two in the top 100. When you consider that the country has seven university’s, one of which is a seminary, that is quite an achievement.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/datablog/2009/oct/08/top-100-universities-world

  187. schabadoo says:

    At a certain point, we cease to have patience with idealism, and focus more on reality.

    You don’t really believe this, do you?

    Explain the Drug War to me, or why weed’s illegal. Or prostitution.

    Puritan ideals gumming up the works.

  188. PGC says:

    #197

    Not necessarily irrelevant and without more facts you will never know. There will be the claims or he got the drop on her vs. this shows that carrying for self defence does not work.

    There is a whole slew of legalese on premeditated vs heat of the moment that defines the difference between murder and manslaughter. The time taken to get the weapon of choice may give time for the person to reconsider. If they have a holster, or are standing beside the table with the knife, they may not take the time let the red mist clear.

    Again, a very sad story and I’m not taking sides.

  189. kettle1 says:

    SChab 199

    the answer to all of those is money.

    Legalizing those would wipe out substantial existing interests that have desire to be wiped out

  190. zieba says:

    YB,

    That’s not a bad car in either variant.

  191. schabadoo says:

    kettle1 202

    Yes, but without the moral crusaders buying the story used to sell these ideas, they’d be a fringe group rather than a legitimate force.

    Like if you removed the religious fanatics from the GOP…

  192. lisoosh says:

    schab – The American Dream and Bill of Rights are idealistic too.

  193. lisoosh says:

    Yup. Them Eur-o-pee-ans are just a useless bunch. Not like France can be pragmatic enough to develop high quality universal health care (Democratic ideal) or energy independence (Republican ideal) or anything.

    Nope. We can just spend millions of bucks passing bills to label potato products “Freedom Fries”. And in the meantime remain pragmatic and realistic and keep borrowing money from the Chinese so that we can buy plastic cr@p from them and maintain our “service economy”.

    Yes sirree. I can see their self su-peer-i-or-ity just oozing from over there. Keeps me up at night.

  194. meter says:

    “gary says:
    October 9, 2009 at 8:40 am
    Schumpeter,

    Things have been happening in our country in the last 12 months that I never would’ve imagined. I vaguely remember the tumultuous period of the late 60s and I’m hoping that this is just a normal cycle of shifting change in our country ultimately for the better. I just don’t know anymore.”

    ——–

    Admit it. You’re thinking more about that Singapore lead. ;)

  195. chicagofinance says:

    lisoosh says:
    October 9, 2009 at 4:02 pm
    Yup. Them Eur-o-pee-ans are just a useless bunch. Not like France can be pragmatic enough to develop high quality universal health care (Democratic ideal) or energy independence (Republican ideal) or anything.

    l: It helps when you are xenophobic and care little about actually providing careers for people who are not born independently wealthy. As long as everyone knows their place in society and accepts it. Also, the Jews are responsible for everything wrong in the world.

  196. Veto That says:

    “Once this commodities bubble pops, and it will, you aren’t going to want to be on the other side of the trade.”

    HEHE, thats true but probably can be said of all bubbles right?
    Still its the bubble that the govt needs to spark (hyper) inflation.
    Like rogers says, “If the world economy recovers, commodities will do the best, because supply is being restricted. If the world economy does not recover, commodities will still be the best place to be, because governments are printing huge amounts of money.”

  197. bi says:

    > Nobel committee = gang of anti-Semitic Eurohacks.

    At least 178 Jews and persons of half- or three-quarters-Jewish ancestry have been awarded the Nobel Prize,1 accounting for 23% of all individual recipients worldwide between 1901 and 2008, and constituting 37% of all US recipients2 during the same period. In the scientific research fields of Chemistry, Economics, Medicine, and Physics, the corresponding world and US percentages are 27% and 40%, respectively. (Jews currently make up approximately 0.25% of the world’s population and 2% of the US population.)

    Chemistry (30 prize winners, 20% of world total, 28% of US total)
    Economics (26 prize winners, 42% of world total, 56% of US total)
    Literature (13 prize winners, 12% of world total, 27% of US total)
    Peace (9 prize winners, 9% of world total, 10% of US total)3

    Physics (47 prize winners, 26% of world total, 37% of US total)
    Physiology or Medicine (53 prize winners, 28% of world total, 41% of US total)
    See also data on “other Nobels”:

    Jewish Recipients of the Kyoto Prize (25% of recipients)
    Jewish Recipients of the Wolf Foundation Prize (34% of recipients)
    Jewish Recipients of the US National Medal of Science (38% of recipients)

    http://www.jinfo.org/Nobel_Prizes.html

  198. kettle1 says:

    whats up with the 30yr treasury today? its getting a beat down

  199. Sean says:

    it is not deflation expectations Kettle1.

  200. reinvestor101 says:

    It’s the damn commie Chinese.

  201. chicagofinance says:

    kettle1 says:
    October 9, 2009 at 4:24 pm

    whats up with the 30yr treasury today? its getting a beat down
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602007&sid=aGI0Hkqv718U

  202. kettle1 says:

    chifi,

    thanks

  203. lisoosh says:

    PGC -Scotland has 2 in the top 100 too. My school came in at 129.

  204. chicagofinance says:

    I just want to say objectively that Achuthan consistent puts out accurate reads….I don’t dismiss his opinions so easily…
    http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/351329/It%27s-a-V!-Recovery-%22A-Lot-Stronger%22-Than-Consensus-ECRI%27s-Achuthan-Says?tickers=^DJI,^GSPC,SPY,DIA,TBT,TLT&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

  205. scribe says:

    arrrgggghhhh

    from Marketwatch’s Weekend edition, tonight at 6

    Washington starts cooking third stimulus
    Bleak job report moves plan from back burner

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/washington-cooking-up-third-stimulus-plan-2009-10-09

  206. db says:

    Yes ,yes Nobel peace prize fine grope of people upstanding winners they all are …oops..Kissinger received the Nobel Peace Prize in 1973 for his work on the Vietnam Peace Accords, despite having instituted the secret 1969–1975 campaign of bombing against infiltraiting NVA in Cambodia, the alleged U.S. involvement in Operation Condor—a mid-1970s campaign of kidnapping and murder coordinated among the intelligence and security services of Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay—as well as the death of French nationals under the Chilean junta. He also supported the invasion of Cyprus resulting in approximately 1/3 of the island being occupied by foreign troops for 33 years. Shimon Peres was responsible for developing Israel’s nuclear weapons arsenal, and was later blamed for the Qana Massacre.Yasser Arafat we need not mention his deeds .Wangari Maathai, 2004 winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, who lend credibility to the theory that HIV was invented by white scientists to destroy black people …A fine upstanding bunch indeed

  207. james says:

    1. Ideological subversion
    2. Demoralization
    3. Crisis (We are here)
    4. Normalization (We are then communists)

    SAS I would love to hear your input on this one. Until then time to shop for red dot optics and 223.

  208. Sean says:

    Bubble on in Britain how long before the USA goes back to zero down?

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a72zaFNruWKM

  209. skep-tic says:

    no money down effectively exists already in U.S. between FHA and refundable tax credit

  210. PGC says:

    #225 Sean,

    The difference is full recourse loans and adjustable rate loans are the norm in the UK. That always allowed for 5% down.

  211. lisoosh says:

    Chi – I’ve never really agreed with the “not insured by choice” routine. If the choice is health insurance or food/roof/transportation, how much of a choice is it really? How many people do you think really don’t want insurance? I had to go without for a while when an employer decided to cut it, wasn’t fun at all, absolutely terrifying in fact.

    Most European nations subsidize, either wholly or in part, college educations for all of its youth. You can become a doctor there for FREE. How exactly does that indicate a desire to keep them from moving up the socio-economic ladder?

    The fact that there are rich and poor (some people are smart, some make bad choices etc.) isn’t the same as the DIVIDE between the rich and the poor.

  212. Sean says:

    sure the tax credit in the USA and FHA but in Britain the loans are interest free for the first five years before starting at 1.75 percent and rising annually by a level linked to inflation.

  213. Schumpeter says:

    vodka (211)-

    Another symptom of the imminent death of the USD.

    And, most of the pundits will say that it’s incipient inflation being priced in…

  214. Schumpeter says:

    tard (213)-

    That’s like the junkie blaming the dealer.

    “It’s the damn commie Chinese.”

  215. Schumpeter says:

    Chi (219)-

    Mostly, the only thing that Frank pulls is his own crank.

    “Maybe I could have been pulling espressos like Frnak…”

  216. Cindy says:

    Kettle @ 137 – Thanks for the information and concern.

    I’m in a classroom and cannot wash my hands with hot water on an ongoing basis – only when I get a break. Meanwhile…the sanitizer is better than nothing.

    The janitors actually use some heavy-duty spray weekly on all of the surfaces.

  217. Schumpeter says:

    bi (210)-

    Recent Nobel winners:

    Yasser Arafat
    Jimmy Carter

    I stand by my original statement.

  218. Schumpeter says:

    In case I need to connect the dots further for you, bi: Carter and Arafat are well-known anti-Semites.

  219. Schumpeter says:

    chi (208)-

    Let it rip. I’m with you all the way. France failed long ago, and presents its corpse to the world as a paragon of world citizenry.

    They are a completely degenerate society, in all respects.

    Of course, I’d probably still rather live there than here, given the chance.

  220. Schumpeter says:

    soosh (205)-

    Uh, no.

    1. The “American Dream” is a construct of the advertising industry and is used to market and merchandise any number of products, both useless and of lasting value.

    2. The Bill of Rights is a document constructed by the most cynical and pragmatic of men, who realized that the foundation of any gubmint must be the balance of peoples’ natural baser impulses by a tripartite system in which each of the three parties exercises defined checks and balances against each other.

  221. Schumpeter says:

    sean (212)-

    Look to the short end of the curve for the deflationary stuff.

    ZIRP ain’t a reaction to inflation.

  222. Schumpeter says:

    As a former Mets fan (and former baseball fan), I’d like to now plead for someone to shoot me in the head.

    Repeatedly.

    DENVER (ESPN) — Pedro Martinez is getting the ball and the call in another big game.

    Philadelphia manager Charlie Manuel chose the aging right-hander over J.A. Happ and Joe Blanton, who made cameo appearances out of the bullpen Thursday, to face the Colorado Rockies in Game 3 of their NL playoff series Saturday night.

    The best-of-five series is tied at one game each.

    Martinez is 6-2 with a 3.40 ERA in the postseason, and Manuel said he likes his history in cold weather, too. The forecast for Game 3 calls for temperatures dipping into the 20s with snow flurries.

    The 37-year-old Martinez sat out most of the year before signing with the Phillies as a free agent late in the season. He went 5-1 with a 3.63 ERA in nine start

  223. Pat says:

    sync, sg, et al.

    What’s an appropriate gift for a host for a diwali party? I’m not sure how many are attending.

    It’s a guy, mid thirties, really nice.

    I’d love to hook him up, as he’s a great person, a good cook, and would be an awesome father, but I’m not sure that’s appropriate.

  224. Pat says:

    Oh, he’s veggie, and doesn’t drink, but serves it.

  225. Pat says:

    Why do I suddenly feel like Bridget Jones?

  226. reinvestor101 says:

    Lady, why is it that you can’t leave well enough alone? Did he ask you for a hookup? Leave the man alone and don’t burden him with some cheapskate woman friend of yours who never wants to buy some damn real estate.

    Just go to the damn party, eat the damn food and leave the man alone.

    241.Pat says:
    October 9, 2009 at 9:48 pm
    sync, sg, et al.

    What’s an appropriate gift for a host for a diwali party? I’m not sure how many are attending.

    It’s a guy, mid thirties, really nice.

    I’d love to hook him up, as he’s a great person, a good cook, and would be an awesome father, but I’m not sure that’s appropriate

  227. Pat says:

    I can’t do it, re. Leave well enough alone, and all. Never could.

    The last time he asked us over and cooked for us, I told him I knew this girl I’d love to have him ask out. He had this look of hope on his face.

    Turns out she’d since gotten betrothed, and now I’m feeling challenged.

  228. Pat says:

    Look, help me out, I’m trying to create real estate buying families, here.

  229. voice_of_reason says:

    This site was once a heroic Cassandra regarding the economic calamity that awaited us during the housing bubble because of the excesses of unfettered Reagan/Thatcher capitalism to the Sean Hannity show. What a shame. Just a bunch of mid-level whiny managers who think the world is out to shaft them because they can’t afford payments on the Lexus. Buck up. The amount of teacher bashing is extraordinary–more or less the bleating of the anti-intellectual set.

    Obama got the Nobel because European intellectuals are so grateful that the current leader of US does not believe he has a direct line to Jesus. It is great that he got the prize because it plays a model role in legitimizing his sound, sober policies, here and abroad.

  230. Schumpeter says:

    Pat (246)-

    So was Barney Frank. How’d that work out?

    “Look, help me out, I’m trying to create real estate buying families, here.”

  231. james says:

    Voice of reason. You simply wont understand until you hear the first round snap over your head. People are seething mad and they arent going to take it. Your safety depends on the success of your opponents.

  232. NJGator says:

    Let the scare-mongering begin. Should be a fun election season in the People’s Republic of Montclair. We are apparently “kooks” and a “gadflys” because we dare to question how our tax dollars are spent.

    Black leaders ‘troubled’ by referendum

    The specter of an elected Board of Education has raised fears among Montclair’s African-American community leaders that any change in the current system could result in the dilution of integration both in the public schools and on the school board itself.

    The community leaders warn that the push for an elected board is nothing more than a backdoor attempt to eliminate Montclair’s magnet school system.

    In addition, the citizens – most cautioned that they speak for themselves and not the entire black community – worry that Montclair voters, even those who espouse racial equality and diversity, may not elect African-Americans to the BOE.

    There is a distinct mistrust of the activists behind the push for an elected school board. The officials who spoke to The Times referred to them as radicals, “people from other places,” “these people,” and “a bunch of gadflies.”

    “I don’t want a bunch of gadflies to get their friends together and elect their slate of people, and then start doing crazy things with our school system,” said Al Smith, co-chair of the Civil Rights Commission.

    Kabir Baber, co-chair of the Committee to Elect the Montclair Board of Education, disputes any notion that an elected BOE would impair racial diversity in Montclair.

    Baber, who noted that he is a member of the NAACP, said the proponents of an appointed school board are sincere, but misguided.

    “I respect the elders of the community because they were there for me, but it’s time for change,” Baber said.

    “THE FIRST VOLLEY”

    The African-American officials who spoke to The Times – Smith, Deputy Mayor Roger Terry, 4th Ward Township Councilwoman Renée Baskerville, former Councilwoman Dolores “Bobby” Reilly, and NAACP official James Harris – were most concerned with the future of Montclair’s magnet school system under an elected school board.

    Implemented in 1977 with two programs designed to desegregate the Montclair School District, the magnet school system was enacted following a court order.

    In a misguided attempt to save costs, the elected BOE proponents seek to slice busing from the annual school budget and implement “neighborhood” schools, Reilly alleged.

    “This is the first volley in an attempt to revert back to what some residents consider to be a preferable racial makeup of the education system,” said Reilly, the first African-American woman elected to the Township Council after Montclair moved from a commission form of government to a manager-council form of government in 1980.

    Reilly said the activists behind the drive for an elected BOE may not necessarily know the history behind Montclair’s fight for desegregated schools, a thought echoed by Baskerville, one of Reilly’s successors on the council.

    “The influx of people from other places … don’t appreciate Montclair’s history and the importance of the magnet school system,” said Baskerville, who sat for one term on the BOE from 2004 to 2007.

    The fears that an elected school board would eliminate Montclair’s magnet school system are unfounded, Baber told The Times. Integration is the result of the law, not just the whims of the appointed BOE, he said.

    The school district “has to be racially and genderly balanced,” Baber said. “That’s a fact. That will not change with an elected school board.”

    GETTING A MAJORITY

    Along with diminished racial diversity in the schools, the prominent African-American leaders who spoke to The Times worry that an elected BOE would have fewer faces of color.

    If Montclair voters approve an elected school board, then the BOE would increase from seven to nine members, and all members would be elected in at-large elections.

    Smith says this puts black candidates at a disadvantage.

    Smith pointed to the pre-1980 commission form of government, when all commissioners were elected at large. Montclair’s black community had much less representation then, he said.

    “I don’t think things have changed,” maintained Smith.

    Reilly: “It’s difficult for people who are segregated by residential restrictions to ever get a majority.”

    But election records going back to 1980 show that Montclair voters have long voted for African-Americans to represent them on the Township Council.

    Just last year, Roger Terry, a former deputy police chief, was the top vote-getter in the municipal election, besting his nearest competitor by more than 700 votes.

    Terry won only 59 more votes in the 4th Ward, Montclair’s predominately African-American ward, than he did in the 1st.

    And since 1980 there have always been at least two African-Americans elected to the seven-member council: one elected at large by the entire town, and the other elected by residents of the 4th Ward only.

    From 1984 to 1988, there were three African-American council members.

    With the exception of the council’s 2004 to 2008 term, a black representative has served as either mayor or deputy mayor since 1980.

    Terry concedes that Montclair voters do not have a problem electing African-Americans to local office, but he pointed to historically low voter turnout rates in New Jersey school board elections. A low turnout could harm minority candidates, Terry said.

    In 2008, only 29 percent of registered voters participated in the municipal election.

    “From my understanding of school board elections, not even half that many people come out to those,” Terry said. “Would it change here? Maybe it would, maybe it would.”

    Harris, president of the New Jersey State Conference of the NAACP, is not convinced. Terry’s success at the polls is not an indication that Montclair voters, as a whole, will support African-American school board candidates, Harris maintained.

    “The numbers would put us at a disadvantage in ensuring that diversity would continue,” said Harris.

    http://www.montclairtimes.com/NC/0/2967.html

  233. voice_of_reason says:

    James, honestly, did you get the Glen Beck virus? The messianic stuff has got to stop. We in a bad recession caused by over leverage. It is probably the start of the US slide from a global to a regional power. Big deal. President O has been playing things right down the middle. Easing the pain a bit, trying to stimulate demand. The unease in the social world is a function of the economic slide that was a product of the last twenty years of easy money, inequality and govt dereg. This is no longer a good site for info for good cost/benefit analysis regarding policy options. Too bad.

  234. Schumpeter says:

    hearing voices of dogs (247)-

    The only teachers I see getting bashed here are the bad ones. Far from being paragons of intellect, they are both functionally and socially illiterate, as well as guilty of trying to bequeath their perennially-clueless mental state to my children. I’m a business owner (not a “mid-level manager”, most of whom are seeing their livelihoods summarily executed and, therefore, cannot spend time at this site), and I suspect I’m not the only owner/executive here.

    As far as the Lexus payments go, mine are rather easy to make, as I’ve become the beneficiary of one of the greatest mass defaults in the history of mankind. Please be assured that I’d rather make a bit less money and have both a sound economy and a gubmint guided by rule of law to bequeath to my children…and not the lawless, broke, entitled-by-fiat, de-evolutionary welfare state that appears to be their certain inheritance.

    Obama got the Nobel because European “intellectuals” (an oxymoron if there ever was one) see him as one of their own. He and his flunkies are certainly as skilled at the same cynical black arts as his European brethren and may indeed outperform them, by finishing the task begun by GWB and his cronies: the transformation of the richest and most powerful financial institutions ever known to mankind from masters of the universe into sniveling, begging welfare queens.

    Economic calamity didn’t befall us because of conservatism. It happened because of simple, human stupidity.

  235. voice_of_reason says:

    Oh yea, those black people worrying about one of the only truly integrated school districts in the state, that is a model of racial justice for the nation. Why don’t you just say that the races shouldn’t go to school together–I have more respect for you if you just said you were a segregationist. If you don’t tend and fret about these matter, these excellent school districts will disappear.

  236. Schumpeter says:

    hearing voices (251)-

    You don’t like this site anymore because no one here agrees with you.

    BTW, O is bending over and taking it no Vas from the banksters worse than GWB ever did.

    His admin. is GWB’s third term. In blackface.

  237. Pat says:

    Voice of reason, when there’s a need, somebody will stand at the plate.

    Right now, there’s no need.

    Seeds were sown, and the plants will grow as they were sown. Be patient.

  238. Schumpeter says:

    Pat (255)-

    I’m just worried that the pitcher that hitter will be facing will be a combination of Josh Beckett, Don Drysdale and Bob Gibson. On ster@ids, Red Bulls and uppers.

    “Voice of reason, when there’s a need, somebody will stand at the plate.”

  239. james says:

    Voice of reason you just dont get it. The problems we are having have been created by our government and its private federal reserve bank. You cant ease pain by contributing to the problem. Passing bills at 10pm on a Friday night (cap and tax) is not playing things down the middle. Its fraud. Bush is just as guilty. Unless folks like you and I can agree on the principles laid out in the Constitution there will be no peaceful resolution other than secession. That didnt work out too well the last time.

    This isnt fear mongering. Im telling you people are f#ing pissed and I am one of them. 350 million guns in this country. 9 billion rounds of ammunition were purchased over the past year. Look at the facts.

  240. chicagofinance says:

    229.lisoosh says:
    October 9, 2009 at 7:23 pm
    Most European nations subsidize, either wholly or in part, college educations for all of its youth. You can become a doctor there for FREE. How exactly does that indicate a desire to keep them from moving up the socio-economic ladder?

    Jerome Kerviel….basically a really smart guy held back by his background…made it forward with his own grit, but the fcukin’ idiots of the French academic intelligencia and the frog turds at SocGen would have none of it and relegated him to sh!t schools and jobs….he fcuked them…he would make a great american…
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J%C3%A9r%C3%B4me_Kerviel

  241. Schumpeter says:

    james (257)-

    We’ve reached the point where virtually no one in this country can follow- much less construct- a reasoned argument, based upon a set of principles laid out in a document like the Constitution. The only arguments that resonate with us are ones grounded completely in emotion…especially those arguments that resemble episodes of Punky Brewster in which Punky and her family share tears and hugs at the end of 30 maudlin, gut-wrenching moments of pure histrionic emotional manipulation.

    We are all idiots of our own making.

  242. NJGator says:

    Voice of reason 253 – No where in that article were any specifics given about any of the petitioners actually questioning the spend for the magnet program. You’ll also note that none of the petitioners were interviewed to give a balanced report either.

    The petitioners have, however, questioned why it was necessary for the Montclair Superintendent to travel to China at the taxpayers expense in order to implement a Chinese language program for Kindergartners. They’ve also questioned why the BOE is moving ahead with construction of a $50M school while Kindergarten enrollment is trending downward and the board can’t even articulate how said school will actually be used. They also question why in tough budget years, classroom teachers and aides are let go, yet the ranks of the central office only seem to increase.

    I fail to see what is racist about that.

  243. reinvestor101 says:

    Why do all women think that all men are just looking to get married. Leave the man alone

    “245.Pat says:
    October 9, 2009 at 10:12 pm
    I can’t do it, re. Leave well enough alone, and all. Never could.

    The last time he asked us over and cooked for us, I told him I knew this girl I’d love to have him ask out. He had this look of hope on his face.

    Turns out she’d since gotten betrothed, and now I’m feeling challenged”

  244. james says:

    If you think capitalism caused this wait until you get communism.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vh71UlnbkeM

  245. yo'me says:

    To Our Rescue: Asia Steps In to Support Dollar

    Asian central banks bought U.S. dollars early in the global session on Thursday to weaken their own currencies, traders said, as the slumping greenback threatens smaller export-driven economies.

    Asian central banks said to be intervening in currency markets overnight by buying dollars included South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Thailand, the Philippines and possibly, Indonesia, according to analysts.

    Emerging market Asian nations, already struggling with the tepid U.S. recovery and weak demand for their exports from the world’s largest economy, have been doubly hurt because their currencies appreciated against the dollar, prompting repeated intervention.

    “Stronger currency hurts exports and growth, and so emerging market policymakers are doing their best to prevent excessive gains” in their currencies, said Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.

    “If (their currencies have) too much strength and the U.S. recovery falters, it’s bad for emerging market growth.”

    There was also an indication that Russia bought as much as $4 billion this week, including $1.4 billion overnight, several market participants said.

    Russia was reportedly one of “at least six central banks buying dollars,”said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at BNY Mellon.

    Despite the apparent buying, the ICE Futures U.S. dollar index, a measure of the greenback against six other major currencies, fell 0.9 percent to 75.798, a 14-month low. It retraced some of its losses during the morning before falling again.

    Reaction in individual pairs was mixed. At current prices, the dollar is down 0.6 percent against the Russian rouble, 0.2 percent against the Thai baht and 0.3 percent against the Korean won.

    The dollar was up 0.1 percent against the Taiwanese dollar and Indonesian rupiah but

    remained flat against the Phillipine peso and Hong Kong dollar.

    Chatter about Russia and other central banks buying dollars to depreciate their own currencies is nothing new. Asian central banks have been rumored to be buying dollars for several months. The interventions or central bank concerns were reported by Reuters overnight.

    “Central banks are keeping policies loose to ensure themselves against the risk of a double-dip recession, and each one of them would prefer its currency to weaken, as insurance against a local double-dip,” said Marco Annunziata, chief economist at UniCredit Group in London.

    The difference is that while some banks such as Russia had been actively converting those dollars to euros to build up alternative reserves, for now, most banks seem comfortable holding greenbacks.

    Analysts say the moves are also protection against a double dip global recession, which would only compound the problems for countries loath to see their currencies appreciate further.

    Though some confirmation may come next week with the release of the Treasury International Capital flows report for August, most investors appeared to accept that central bank dollar buying is rational, if only as a hedge against more expensive safe haven flows at a later date.

    The risk of course, is that the dollar loses value, making purchases now a bad bet.

    “If the U.S. returns to recession after the third or fourth quarters, the dollar will become even cheaper,” said Joseph Trevisani, senior market analyst at New Jersey-based FX Solutions from Kuwait City.

    “A second recession means prolonged low American interest rates, a weak U.S. economy, perhaps further Federal Reserve market support — all of which are detrimental to the dollar.”

  246. A.West says:

    Voice of sophists,

    Maybe you’ll feel more at home reading Brad DeLong or visiting the NY Times website and forums. Provides the simulation of intelligence and openmindedness while being disastrously wrong on nearly all major issues.

    We’re just passing time here waiting for the state of NJ, and its real estate prices, to finally collapse.

    These sorts of things always take longer than one expects, until something changes, and it happens much more suddenly than expected.

  247. Essex says:

    261. Cause admin and teachers are diametrically opposed in their goals. (mostly) one is actually doing the work and the other….is collecting a paycheck. Pathetic and probably one reason for the bloat in schools today.

  248. Essex says:

    259. Naw that is an over generalization. I’m a moron but I married a very smart lady. Don’t ask.

  249. Essex says:

    257. 3 years and we are gone. Alps.

  250. Essex says:

    251. Regional power? The “gdp” of a single state is equal to entire countries.

  251. Orion says:

    According to Nobel’s will, the Peace Prize should be awarded “to the person who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.”

    BO has not yet delivered. This award was waaay premature. It’s outrageous.

  252. grim says:

    Yes ,yes Nobel peace prize fine grope of people upstanding winners they all are …oops..

    #222 – So, either way, this is a lose for BO? Is he in the company of the saints, or sinners? I suppose we’ll need to wait and see.

  253. Schumpeter says:

    Don’t put me on any list of award winners that contains Yasser Arafat.

  254. Essex says:

    Schumpeter — I’ma letcha finish….K???

  255. Maylook1day says:

    I stopped following yesterday morning as the first couple hours of the day were on the BO’s Nobel and I can’t believe it’s still the topic.

  256. Maylook1day says:

    Just observation on local re to milburn, new prov., berk. Heights in union county, seem to be a lot more, lot more listings coming on the market in the 400’s and low/mid 5’s than I think I’ve ever seen. Is there a fall selling season? Still POS but potentially more diamonds in rough as well a selection.

  257. Essex says:

    It’s all in good fun……

  258. Maylook1day says:

    One day doesn’t make a trend but of 6 listing I received today 5 were 1 DOM and three of those listings below 500k (I know probably POS). Just been noticing over the last 3-4 weeks.
    Is there a Fall ‘pop’ too?

  259. lostinny says:

    276 Maylook

    I don’t know about a fall selling season as being the usual. Everything I’ve ever heard was all about the summer (getting kids started in a new school before the school year started). But I wonder if there is or will be a slight change in timing. The fall has become very popular for weddings so I was wondering if that would also have an effect on timing when looking for homes. I have no data about that. But I’d be interested to find out myself.

  260. pricedOut says:

    Wow! Two ‘posts of the day’ in one day!!

    I call Schumpeter’s post 259 ‘post of the day’ for Saturday!

  261. Barbara says:

    278. Priced out

    its just a more entertaining version of “everybody’s an idiot EXCEPT ME.”
    settle down, we get one of those here about every 7 posts.

  262. ruggles says:

    274 – we also seem to be having an explosion of POS ranches (more land out here) on the market under 400k in Hunterdon north of 78. i think there are now about 10 in my town to choose from. each one more panelled, plywood kitchened, and shagcarpeted than the last.

  263. pricedOut says:

    279

    uhhh… no.

    Re-read the Constitution. That is, if you’ve ever read it.

  264. BC Bob says:

    Shore/Sean/NJC,

    Right now, 101.9, playing the entire show, live, last night.

  265. yikes says:

    nary a mention of A-rod’s homer last night in the 9th?

    followed by the tex game-winner in the 11th?

    here’s video if you missed it (which im sure mets fans did)

    http://tinyurl.com/yhlsjqw

  266. BC Bob says:

    “I stopped following yesterday morning as the first couple hours of the day were on the BO’s Nobel and I can’t believe it’s still the topic.”

    Amen.

  267. lisoosh says:

    #280 – What is it with Hunterdon County and wood panelling?

    Clot?

  268. Morpheus says:

    279:
    agreed.
    all these plans to beat inflation/deflation by various posters. Maybe we all should accept the fact that when the SHTF, all of our standards of living will decline.

    I really believe what is will occur is a re-defining of what constitutes a middle class and upper middle class lifestyle. Food, healthcare, heat, and shelter. Basic needs.

    Let’s face it: none of us on this board are “rich” (excepting O’s definition which is a topic for another time). When the SHTF none of us have the resources to weather out the storm for more than a few years at best. We all are F**Ked. Sorry for the negativity. . .it has been a rough week.

    Chi: hope all is well with your mum.

    Re 101 is back. .. . wow. can you explain what constitutes a “rock ribbed” american conservative. How do you get rock ribs? is that similar to short ribs? dry rub or wet rub?

  269. Morpheus says:

    wow:
    one should not inhale household cleaners while cleaning the bathroom and attempt to blog afterwards!

  270. d2b says:

    Yikes-
    Also no mention of the fair ball called foul…..

  271. Maylook1day says:

    Rugg 280: three years ago when I moved to the area (renting) I can remember scanning the GSMLS and there was just about Zero under 500k that were really livable for a typical family – unless you were looking for say a 2 bedroom home which was next to a gas station or so somthing odd like that.

  272. PGC says:

    This is priceless.

    “Can you wait a second, it’s going to space!”
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LkusicUL2s

  273. Cindy says:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/11/business/economy/11view.html?ref=business

    NYT – Robert Shiller
    “A Bounce? Indeed. A Boom? Not Yet”

    “…more likely just a sign of a period of higher short-run price volatility.”

  274. gary says:

    And here we have a fortified German bunker at Normandy in 1944 moments before the Allies secured the beachhead:

    http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Twp-Of-Washington_NJ_07676_1109167449

  275. Cindy says:

    293 – Gary -“And here we have a fortified German bunker….”
    Priceless – You really have a way with words.

  276. Pat says:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/11/us/11clothesline.html?_r=1&hp

    “… similar bills are being considered in Maryland, North Carolina, Oregon and Virginia, clothesline advocates say..”

    Waaah? I didn’t even know I couldn’t put the laundry out here.

  277. Pat says:

    Michelle needs to get out with the girls and set up some lines. Do the whole set up out by the new play equipment.

    Maybe hook the dog on one right behind her and get a good shot of the kids pinning up some Presidential socks.

  278. Pat says:

    Gary, every time I go to an open house, and the front door looks like that, I eat a bar of Trader Joe’s dark chocolate the next day.

    Took me a while to figure out what was going on.

  279. Cindy says:

    297 – OH Pat – That door totally looks like a Trader Joe’s chocolate bar. Now where else can you sit around and laugh out loud about real estate – I mean really.

  280. Cindy says:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125520769923778297.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsThird

    “Get Tax Credits for Home Projects”

    1-1-09 to 12-31-10 – Of course I purchased a new water heater 11/08.

  281. lostinny says:

    I just want you guys to know I made myself a hot chocolate because I had no chocolate bars to eat.

  282. lostinny says:

    Cindy

    1-1-09 to 12-31-10 – Of course I purchased a new water heater 11/08.

    That’s what white out and copy machines are for. :)

  283. NJGator says:

    Cindy – This one’s for you:

    Top Judge Calls Calif. Government ‘Dysfunctional’

    LOS ANGELES — In a rare public rebuke of state government and policies delivered by a sitting judge, the chief justice of the California Supreme Court scathingly criticized the state’s reliance on the referendum process, arguing that it has “rendered our state government dysfunctional.”

    In a speech Saturday before the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in Cambridge, Mass., the chief justice, Ronald M. George, denounced the widespread use of the referendum process to change state laws and constitutions. And he derided California as out of control, with voters deciding on everything from how parts of the state budget are spent to how farm animals are managed.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/11/us/11calif.html?hp

  284. cobbler says:

    Star-Ledger endorses Chris Daggett for governor.

    About Corzine v. NJ Dem party:
    “Corzine is the chaplain on a pirate ship, not really its captain”

    “For too long, the cliche about New Jersey’s two great parties has seemed all too true — that Democrats are corrupt, Republicans incompetent. Nothing will cause them to change their ways for the better except repudiation at the polls Nov. 3.
    The election of Chris Daggett would deliver that repudiation and put a highly qualified occupant in the corner office at the Statehouse.”

  285. Cindy says:

    Gator 302 – Dysfunctional & California – See how those two words just flow together. They simply roll off the tongue.

  286. Cindy says:

    How’s the leg Lost? Sorry about the chocolate. Wasn’t that too funny though? Pat was right on.

  287. Cindy says:

    Gator – So I’m listening to this radio show called Radio Tradio today. People call in to sell stuff and leave their phone numbers. Sort of a free service on the local AM station. Anyway, this guy calls in to tell about his yard sale and when asked where he was moving he replied, “ABC.” The commentator said, “Huh?” The man said, “Anywhere But California.” True story.

  288. danzud says:

    #306 translation – The Star-Ledger feels obliged to break up the non-government/labor aligned white vote between Daggett and Christie on order to keep Goldman Sachs in power.

  289. lostinny says:

    305 Cindy
    Trying not to think about it. I’m watching previous episodes of Dexter.

  290. still_looking says:

    Lost, 308

    Dexter? I’m in love! Watched the entire season one episodes from 9:30 pm til 7:00 am the following morning!

    All 11 or 12 of them!

    All on Netflix. then watched the entire season 2…

    Now downloading season 3 from Megavideo (Netflix doesn’t have the streaming video of season 3)

    Up to #5, episode “si se puede” right now…

    Such a kindred soul… :)

    did you MRI yet?

    sl

  291. Schumpeter says:

    ruggles (280)-

    Hey, don’t sell those short. You’d be amazed at the varieties of rare, toxic mold that can be spawned in old shag carpets.

    You could start a weapons program with a remnant of one of those carpets.

  292. Schumpeter says:

    soosh (286)-

    I think it’s some sort of homage to the Nixon era.

    “What is it with Hunterdon County and wood panelling?”

  293. Schumpeter says:

    Off to Brooklyn. Columbus Day tournament. We have a chance to win it.

    I think there may be body parts near the field we’re playing at.

Comments are closed.