Tue 17 Nov 2009
From the Record:
Passaic County jobless rate hit 11.7% in Sept.
Passaic County’s unemployment rate of 11.7 percent in September was the highest in New Jersey, and the second highest in the New York area, federal figures released Monday show.
The county lagged only Bronx County, with a rate of 13.3 percent, the U.S. Department of Labor said. Bergen County’s rate of 8.4 percent was 15th highest in the New York area, and eighth in the state. The figures are not seasonally adjusted.
The rates in both Bergen and Passaic counties have increased over the past year by more than the 3.4 percentage point increase in the national rate of 9.5 percent in September. New Jersey’s unadjusted rate that month was 9.6 percent.
September Unemployment Rate 2008/2009
Passaic 6.8 / 11.7
Hudson 6.7 / 11.6
Essex 6.9 / 11.1
Bergen 4.6 / 8.4
Union 5.9 / 9.8
Warren 5.0 / 8.8
Monmouth 4.9 / 8.7
Sussex 4.8 / 8.5
Somerset 4.2 / 7.9
Morris 4.1 / 7.6
Hunterdon 3.8 / 6.9
From the WSJ:
America’s Newest Land Baron: FDIC
In the waning days of the Great Recession, the federal government is still jumpstarting the economy and propping up financial markets.
It is also trying to sell Dresden Heights, a failed condo development on a noisy freeway ramp next to a Motel 6, a Waffle House and a Do-It-Yourself Pest Control.
For more than a year, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has been seeking a buyer for 36 partially built condos it inherited from a high-flying, short-lived Atlanta bank. The agency has been fending off vandals, haggling with architects and uncovering the developer’s blunders, all in a bid to dispose of this condo project, just one of the 2,554 foreclosed assets dumped onto its books. “These are properties with a bad story,” says Jim Gallagher, a senior official in the FDIC’s Division of Resolutions and Receiverships. “What we’re trying to sell is something that is rundown or not completed or has some property damage.”
The financial crisis started with Americans buying homes they couldn’t afford. It is ending with the government struggling to sell buildings it never wanted.
In the past two years, the FDIC has taken over 150 failed banks. In the process, it has seized more than 5,000 houses, subdivisions, buildings, parcels and other foreclosed assets. The current backlog of property stuck on the agency’s books, with an appraised value of $1.8 billion, ranges from an $18,700 clapboard home with stained carpets in Birmingham, Ala., to a $1.7 million mountainside lodge with a heated driveway in Steamboat Springs, Colo.
From the Record:
Hospital to lay off 24 workers
Englewood Hospital and Medical Center is laying off 24 employees, reducing hours for five other staffers and leaving 22 open positions unfilled in a restructuring to stabilize finances, hospital officials confirmed Monday.
“This decision has been reviewed very carefully to ensure that the restructuring does not impact our ability to continue to deliver quality patient care,” said Douglas Duchak, the hospital’s president.
The layoffs are taking place “across the board” to offset recent declines in patient volume — which occurred after an initial boost in patients that followed the closing of Pascack Valley Hospital in Westwood two years ago, spokeswoman Maria Margiotta said.
“The difficulties we continue to face in this industry, including declining patient volumes, a rise in uninsured patients and inadequate funding for charity care, Medicare and Medicaid, forces us to make adjustments in how we operate,” Duchak said.
From Bloomberg:
Bernanke Signals ‘Extended’ Low-Rate Period May Become Longer
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s diagnosis of a weak U.S. economy and labor market signaled that the central bank’s extended period of low borrowing costs may get even longer.
Bernanke said “significant economic challenges remain,” with lending constrained and the jobless rate above 10 percent. Speaking in New York yesterday, he said U.S. asset prices aren’t out of line with underlying values, and central bank policy will ensure that the “dollar is strong.”
From the Daily Record:
Christie sees sea of red ink as budget outlook grows grimmer
Gov.-elect Chris Christie’s budget advisers, fresh off a meeting with Gov. Jon S. Corzine’s top treasury officials, said Monday that the state’s fiscal situation is worse in the current and upcoming budget years than expected.
“We did not get any pleasant news this morning from the Treasurer’s Office — not that I expected to, but more unpleasant perhaps than we had hoped,” Christie said at an afternoon news conference in his new transition office in the state capital.
Christie reiterated that he won’t seek tax increases to balance the budget. He wouldn’t commit to timetable for promised cuts in income and corporate taxes, though he said tax cuts and spending cuts are needed to fix the state’s budget and economy.
“I absolutely believe that we can have New Jersey back to fiscal health by the conclusion of our first term. I don’t think that’s an unrealistic goal. But let me be really clear: There’s going to be a lot of hard things that need to be done in order to do that, and everybody’s going to have to come to the table ready to contribute to the restoration of our fiscal health,” said Christie. “I think we can do it, and frankly I think that’s one of the imperatives from the election. People voted for me because they want spending to be less. They want government to be smaller.”
englewood teachers demo: its for the children
4 - “I absolutely believe that we can have New Jersey back to fiscal health by the conclusion of our first term.”
He’s lucky the world is ending before that.
First day, after the inauguration, Christie declares a state of financial emergency. Then, he starts furloughing superfluous employees and abrogating the insane agreements made with various unionized state worker groups.
Anything short of this, and he will become a sad, fat, four-year sideshow.
Fascist States of Amerika:
“When the stimulus package was rolled out, Mr. Immelt instructed executives leading the company’s major business units “to put together swat teams to get stimulus money, and [identify] who to fire if they don’t get the money,” says a person who heard him issue the instructions.
In February, a few days after President Obama signed the stimulus plan, GE lawyers, lobbyists and executives crowded into a conference room at GE’s Washington office to figure out how to parlay billions of dollars in spending provisions into GE contracts.
Separately, Mr. Immelt got an invitation to serve on the President’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board, which would afford him access to the president’s economic inner circle.
GE spent $7.55 million lobbying in the second quarter, a 34% increase from the year-earlier period and more than any other single company, according to federal data compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics.”
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/11/ge-ceo-plays-kiss-ass-with-obama.html
Don’t have the link, but in the ledger today: the guy who was arrested at the airport for making terrorist threats regarding the president, took the plea deal.
Essentially got a disorderly persons ticket.
#9 Why not. ? after all we’re bringing
em back for trial here in the US.
who’s kidding who?
Dear Sellers,
“The financial crisis started with Americans buying homes they couldn’t afford.
Any questions?
bergen county holding up. hurry
Schumpeter,
GE has been kissing political butt for decades. They’ve got their lips firmly around the long “green” hose, hoping for the liquidity to gush from the biggest intellectual bubble of our age. GE brings investors on tours of their “green” strategies.
freedy,
Bergen County is insulated. It’s close to NYC, it’s bleeding wealth and they’re not making anymore land. A professional member of the NAR told me so! :o
Clot or any other realtor types how much of a pain in the a$$ is it to negotiate with HSBC or any bank on a foreclosed property? We found a house we like and we want to start the bid at 50 cents on the dollar of the original loan amount. Am I urinating in the wind, or should I start higher. Condition of the home is poor but it is in prestigous Randolph about three miles from Morristown. It also sits high on a hill and looks like a good defensible position ; ) just saying.
And certain towns in Bergen County “expect” certain types of people. A professional member of the NAR told me that as well.
Oh, and if you must sell a home before buying another one, just take out a HELOC on your current home and use that as the down payment on the next home. But, DO NOT tell the lender why you are using the money. Tell them it’s for renovation or something like that. In other words, lie to them. A professional member of the NAR gave me this wonderful, useful advice as well.
pain (15)-
If you are making a cash offer, go for it. You can force them into taking a pretty good haircut on it, too. If you aren’t coming all-cash, don’t bother.
Pretty much all I see banks entertaining are cash offers.
It’s comments like these that make my blood boil. The real estate terrorists and liberals helped embolden these damn commies where they think they can tell us what the hell to do. These damn commies don’t realize that real americans like me aren’t hemmed in by diplomatic doublespeak, but speak our damn minds and if they think they’re gonna dictate anything to me, they got another think coming.
We don’t need you commies for a damn thing. You punks need to open up twitter and give your people freedom. The only damn reason you damn commies made any money was by suppressing your people.
What? You want your money back? SHUT THE HELL UP. We’ll give your damn money back when we’re done with it. You weren’t doing anything with it anyway, so it’s being used productively–that’s all you need to know.
“The Chinese leadership will not worry too much about the U.S. pressure. In the context of the financial crisis and George W. Bush’s legacy on the issues of Iran, North Korea, Afghanistan and Pakistan, the U.S. needs China much more than China needs the U.S.,” said Yu Wanli, an America expert at Peking University.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33979715/ns/politics-white_house
“u asked, I would prefer to be a Grand Duchy, like Grand Fenwick. But, since by law I cant hold the title of Duke (though my daughter did make me a crown and decreed I was the King of our street), a Grand Duchy is out. ”
Nom,
If I remember enough Con law, I believe you can take a title; the prohibition is on the government granting titles.
Thanks clot
#19 - These damn commies don’t realize that real americans like me aren’t hemmed in by diplomatic doublespeak
Nope, real `Mericans are hemmed in by their vast amounts of debt.
Have no fear; before this all ends, we’ll teach the Chinese how to be debt junkies just like us.
Look how well they’ve learned how to bugger their currency.
Don’t worry about jobs, Omama is coming to help you.
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2009/11/17/us/politics/politics-us-obama-jobs-forum.html
So, the Annointed One is openly admitting that they are clueless when it comes to the economy, lied about the stimulus package disguised as pork roll and are looking for new ways to calm the proletarians.
[20] shore guy
Not overly concerned enough to research it; I know that government employees can’t accept titles (though Congress has made exceptions for honorary knighthoods and the like). Besides, I can always declare my north 40 to be a new country and name myself potentate.
Then, I’ll wait for PGC and his Red Horde to come and try to take my glasses.
[7] schumpeter,
My money is on the sideshow.
Maybe he can slow the progression of the disease, but there’s no way the patient lives.
On that cheery note, back to work (someone has to pay for the Stimuli).
Gary [25],
He simply stated that w/stimulus unemployment would be approx 8%, without it, we would be at 9%. With more, we will never reach 10%?
Looks like Trump SoHo, the condotel, might be getting foreclosed on.
Personally, I thought the whole condotel idea was stupid and am amazed anyone bought into it.
Sorry, couldn’t resist this after reading Gary’s link:
“Obama wanted to get out of Washington and “take the temperature on what Americans are experiencing during these challenging economic times,” the White House said.”
I think what we are experiencing right now is what Obama euphemistically calls “taking our temperature.”
grim says:
November 16, 2009 at 6:30 am
Those oversized paychecks fueled the fire of the entitlement generation. Worse even, legitimized it. For the rest of the proletariat, it turned reckless gambling into an acceptable strategy. The outcome being a bifurcated society with one half expecting to be handed success, and the other half one roll away from it.
reposting because this is so truthful. I’m overpaid for what I do. I fully admit it. There is no way I can keep making this much money. When my contract is up, i see my income being cut significantly.
so we’re not spending (not that we ever really do). we basically save it all (401k, IRA) and have a tidy sum tucked away for a rainy day/tough times.
Now if i am lucky enough to get a gig paying anywhere near what i make now … we’re in good shape.
[28] BC Bob
Reminds me of what the Crown said of Cornwallis’ “victory” at the Battle of the Cowpens.
“Any more victories like that, and we’ll lose the war.”
[31] yikes
This is even more true in my profession where I actually told an associate who interviewed me that I thought the salaries were outlandish and wouldn’t last (she agreed).
And as it was one of the most outsized comp bubbles, the reckoning is already happening. I predicted it nine years ago (and to be fair, it was hard not to)and we have prepared for it by changing practice areas, expanding our fields, and I took a law firm job after swearing I would never go back to Big Law, just so we can bank the cash while it is there. Still, we are not as prepared as I would like.
(now, really must apply nose to grindstone)
strump: Did you enjoy my friend’s You Tube video where the fascists confiscate his daughter’s Halloween candy, and if she doesn’t eat broccoli (i.e. provide healthcare coverage) they abscond with even more candy?
8.Schumpeter says:
November 17, 2009 at 7:05 am
Fascist States of Amerika:
Nom,
Maybe so, but did he really need to use the rectal thermometer?
unmod?
“Then, I’ll wait for PGC and his Red Horde to come and try to take my glasses.”
It’s not me you have to worry about. You biggest concern will be those you lock yourself in with.
The end is nigh….
Remote Control’ host dies
Post staff writer
The man who hosted MTV’s first non-musical TV series has died.
Comedian Ken Ober, who hosted the late-’80s game show “Remote Control,” was found dead last Sunday night, at the age of 52, his representatives said.
Although the cause of Ober’s death is officially unknown, The Comic’s Comic blog reported that he died of a heart attack.
Ober’s claim to fame was for hosting the bizarre, pop culture-obsessed MTV game show for five seasons. In it, contestants sat on recliners in a set dressed to look like Ober’s basement, answering questions to avoid elimination. The show helped to launch the careers of comics including Adam Sandler and Denis Leary, who made guest appearances acting out sketches that served as quiz questions, and Colin Quinn, who served as the series’ announcer and Ober’s sidekick.
More recently, Ober worked as a producer on ”
The New Adventures of Old Christine,” ”
Mind of Mencia” and ”
Tough Crowd with Colin Quinn.”
The news of Ober’s death was initially greeted as a hoax when it first broke on the Internet, until comedian Paul F. Tompkins Tweeted a confirmation yesterday. –
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buzzdiggredditfark itfacebookrssThe man who hosted MTV’s first non-musical TV series has died.
Comedian Ken Ober, who hosted the late-’80s game show “Remote Control,” was found dead last Sunday night, at the age of 52, his representatives said.
Although the cause of Ober’s death is officially unknown, The Comic’s Comic blog reported that he died of a heart attack.
Ober’s claim to fame was for hosting the bizarre, pop culture-obsessed MTV game show for five seasons. In it, contestants sat on recliners in a set dressed to look like Ober’s basement, answering questions to avoid elimination. The show helped to launch the careers of comics including Adam Sandler and Denis Leary, who made guest appearances acting out sketches that served as quiz questions, and Colin Quinn, who served as the series’ announcer and Ober’s sidekick.
More recently, Ober worked as a producer on “The New Adventures of Old Christine,” “Mind of Mencia” and “Tough Crowd with Colin Quinn.”
The news of Ober’s death was initially greeted as a hoax when it first broke on the Internet, until comedian Paul F. Tompkins Tweeted a confirmation yesterday. –
Pain 15
that sounds like a hop skip and ajump from me. if you get it we’ll have to have a drink
Wholesale inflation up less than expected in Oct
The Labor Department said Tuesday that its Producer Price Index rose 0.3 percent last month, after falling 0.6 percent in September. Analysts had expected a 0.5 percent gain, according to Thomson Reuters.
plume (30)-
He’s taking our temperature Louima-style, with a plunger handle.
“Obama wanted to get out of Washington and “take the temperature on what Americans are experiencing during these challenging economic times,” the White House said.”
I think what we are experiencing right now is what Obama euphemistically calls “taking our temperature.”
Ket sounds like a plan I’ll have to switch you over to single malt though. Then again with all the work the place will need I’ll probably be on some 5 dollar plastic bottle skid row whiskey.
chi (34)-
Big yuks!
Let the good times roll.
Bernake - “The best thing we can say about the labor market right now is that it may be getting worse more slowly.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/17/business/economy/17fed.html?_r=3&ref=business
35 - Its uncomfortable but at least its the most accurate method says my pediatrician. Vaseline helps!
RE/Tax question:
My fiancee and I will likely close on a house in Dec 2009. The mortgage will be in my name but the deed is in both our names and she is contributing to the down payment. In 2010, we will file separate returns for 09. Her income is within the range for the $8500 creidt, can she claim it even though my income disqualifies me from taking the credt?
Tough Choice - a POS cape in NJ or a football stadium.
http://www.freep.com/article/20091117/NEWS05/911170324/?imw=Y
The Pontiac Silverdome and its 127 adjacent acres could become home to a Major League Soccer team now that the city has accepted a bid of $583,000 from a Toronto-based real estate company to buy the facility.
In 2005, suburban developers headed by the firm Schostak Brothers offered nearly $20 million for the Silverdome, but the deal fell apart as the city delayed taking the offer.
And last year, a $17.5-million plan to turn it into a horse racetrack, hotel and conference center also fell through.
“A number of people talked about plans, but no one came up with the money,” Leeb said.
“In 2005, suburban developers headed by the firm Schostak Brothers offered nearly $20 million for the Silverdome”
Vic [47],
Better to be lucky rather than smart.
Detroit one more step closer to Delta City. Subsitute Omnicorp with General Motors and it is pretty much there. Note to self start working on biological interfaces for cybernetic add ons.
I guess NJ politicians have a lot to learn on mismanagement from the Dems in Detroit.
Pain,
Camden isnt that far behind detroit. Dont go short selling out ever talented politicians
@47;
My friend like to call it Bartertown.
Others agree:
Detroit picked to host 2016 Thunderdome
Seriously, though, it might cost as much as the sale price to level the place and reclaim the land.
I think the Silverdome could be an ideal location for the NomPound. It would be pretty easy to defend and I’ve hear that the streets of Detroit have an excellent record for the resupplying of weapons and ammo. Best of all, you could rename the building to ‘Thunderdome!’
Dang Moose. Stole my ‘thunder’.
Pain,
i look forward to the first ED209
[52] stu
Would that make me Mad [real name]?
And did I read that right? The fcuking Silverdome and surrounding land was sold for less than what I paid for a house????
“Would that make me Mad [real name]?”
Nah, just mad.
This sounds so New Jersey..
“STATEWIDE — In what could become the highest profile game of political musical chairs in the state, Democratic sources claim they are considering replacing U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg with outgoing Gov. Jon Corzine.
It would work like this: Corzine would resign prior to January, when Republican Christopher Christie takes over as governor. A Corzine resignation would allow state Sen. President Richard Codey to serve as acting governor. Then Lautenberg would retire from the U.S. Senate, leaving Codey to name Corzine to fill the seat until a special election.
This is similar to a move made when Corzine resigned the senate to become governor, when he named then Rep. Bob Menendez to fill his own seat.
The move would prevent Christie from being able to name a replacement for the aging Lautenberg and would give Corzine a leg up as a senate incumbent in the special election next November.”
http://www.hudsonreporter.com/pages/full_stories_home/push?article–Democrats+discuss+having+Corzine+resign+early-+then+replace+Lautenberg-%20&id=4491461–Democrats+discuss+having+Corzine+resign+early-+then+replace+Lautenberg-&instance=up_to_the_minute_le
#3
“It is inherently extraordinarily difficult to know whether an asset’s price is in line with its fundamental value,” Bernanke said. “It’s not obvious to me in any case that there’s any large misalignments currently in the U.S. financial system.”
*******
what planet is this guy living on?
Yea I bought that bad boy, nothing down zero % financing gonna flip that bad boy, who wants an acre at 500K baby, I need at least 100,000% return on investment for my one days work!
Ket probaly cheaper than my German shepherd as the only thing the ED-209 would eat is ammo.
Another 300 hundred at the vet yesterday, as my high maintenance pup has a skin condition. Still better than a rug rat though.
“It’s not obvious to me in any case that there’s any large misalignments currently in the U.S. financial system.”
[3],
That’s funny. Simply take a look at your balance sheet. Misalignment or donkey dung?
Web of Errors: Recovery.org’s Bad Math
http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=9100648
62: Yeah, government is tracking all the jobs created or saved by Congressional District. Too bad that many of the Congressional Districts that had detailed numbers for jobs created/saved do not exist.
Well, given that The Anointed One campaigned to become the “President of all 57 states”, I’m not surprised.
But your health care will be managed better - trust the government!
plume (55)-
What? You’d rather have bought the Silverdome? :)
jamil (57)-
I hope this scenario plays out, just so it drives you out of your mind.
BC (61)-
It’s just like having Alex Trebeck as the Fed chair.
In fact, Trebeck would probably do a better job.
65: I think it just punishes NJ (and the country) but enjoy your satisfaction.
Gold $1,100+/oz.
No misalignment there.
jamil (67)-
Living here is punishment enough.
I now only want to be entertained by your continued misery.
clot
Sure there is, there is room for a good 300% upside. Just be patient, bernanke is doing all he can to help with that.
Gold $1,100+/oz.
No misalignment there.
market recovery ? …no way no way ,not my money not my problem ! no way no way !..http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-V02e-l6yGw
I’m gonna write in Lautenberg for the special election.
I’m gonna write in Mudman for NJ Senate.
Oh…wait…he’s dead.
#57,
Let him spend another $100M to get the job he quit few years back.
Mudman, we hardly knew ye.
A heartwarming story to kick off your holiday season:
http://www.nydailynews.com/archives/news/1999/09/08/1999-09-08_death_row_inmate_killed_in_j.html
73: “Oh…wait…he’s dead.”
well, at least he will vote for Corzine.
Where are the job cuts? Where’s the recession?
Take my lead and buy a house now, before the bonus money outbids you.
Wall Street Lost Fewer Jobs Than Forecast in Recovery
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arTfuqVz33aA&pos=7
frank (77)-
As if none of these WS losers already owns a house (or four).
Get back to the mall and start counting.
Hint: once you’ve used up your fingers, use your toes.
69: Good luck for you and hope you get your satisfaction.
I don’t know how long you have jamil to kick around in this region. I have seriously considered opportunities outside of US (and I will collect my flight ticket from a certain member of this blog). The job market here is awful and not getting any better with Obamanomics, but the prospects and recruiting in some other parts of the world is now surprisingly good (though not great), at least in the specialties that my household has.
Frank [77],
Do you even read before posting?
“With severe job losses in the securities industry, Wall Street’s multiplier impact — which had enormous benefit to New York City’s economy during the economic expansion — worked in reverse, leading to job losses in the rest of the city’s economy,” the report said. “While the pace of Wall Street job losses has slowed considerably, the industry is not yet adding jobs on a sustained basis.”
On unrelated note, rents in Manhattan are still coming down. Nice 2-bedroom in 15-year old “luxury” condo building in good area now $2400 (I vaguely recall this building had 1-bedrooms starting from $2700 one and a half year ago). Similar offers elsewhere in Manhattan.
Not sure if this is just a good time of the year or sign of an actual collapse in rents in the last few months..
Montclair in death spiral?
Our home purchased in 9/2004 = $480K Private deal = sweet price.
We sank about $60K into it for improvements (redid 3 bathrooms, electric, plumbing etc.)
Town assessment in late 10/2006 = $660K
Appeal assessment in 10/2008 = $500K
Refi assessment in 11/2009 = $460K
$660 to $460 is a 30% decline.
$540K ($480 + $60 in improvements) to $460K = $80K loss so far, not factoring in carry costs.
At this point, it would have cost us the same to rent for $1333 over the past 5 years. Technically, we have paid $1800 in rent which is a sweet deal for what we have. Then again we locked away 96K in downpayment for the privilege.
One more year like this and might have been better off renting ;)
Keep that in mind buyers.
Don’t believe the ‘it won’t happen here crowd’.
Stu (82)-
And people wonder why I think the RE market will be down & out for an entire generation.
Clot:
Giving nothing but the ‘real’ numbers.
On the bright side, as we near a bottom (whenever that is). If you look at purchasing as a better option then renting from an economic standpoint, it might once again make sense. One should not look at a home as an investment ever. First, it’s an impossible sector to time. Second, its long term return on investment is barely better than inflation. Sort of like fools jumping into shiny now. They should have hopped on board that train back in the early part of this decade like BC did.
Stu (84)-
Disagree. We are nowhere near the bottom.
#77 frank: not to worry, they can buy the listing below, it is. If they put some of their “street” savvy to work, they might just steal it for 650k, and have a little left ovr for er, um some improvements.
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2900677&id=999999
Clot… I didn’t say we are near a bottom. I said as we approach a bottom, meaning it will happen eventually.
Stu, Clot
I have been playing with some data that suggests there has been a 16- 18 yr RE cycle in place for the last 100+ years. If that holds, we would see our next peak in 2025 and an idealized bottom somewhere around 2014-2016.
I will share the data once i finish processing it and verifying/validating it. (hard task given the age of some of the data)
http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20091117/sc_livescience/nosurprisecoeddormsfuelsexanddrinking
Kettle1,
It’s kind of what I have been thinking as well. The housing cycle is so slow and elongated. And like most cycles, it always appears to obtain the majority of its gains in the last few years before the bust. Kind of like a rip curl.
“Don’t believe the ‘it won’t happen here crowd’”
This Stu guy must be bitter because he failed to do his homework and buy on THE RIGHT STREET. On THE RIGHT STREETS, everything is fine and bidding wars are breaking out.
Given changes in the economy, are we likely to see a shortening or lengthening of the cycle It seems like the USG is doing everything to stretch out the cycle.
I would bet on a lengthening of the cycle. All bets are off as to what will happen when the buyers credit is phased out and interest rates are raised. The bottom could just fall right out. With that said, the Gator family continues to submit low-ball offers on houses that are wildly overpriced.
Shore
the data I have so far shows an initial shortening of cycles
#86 So what is that place? A converted stable? And what’s with the pillbox hat on the realtor?
Stu
from the data set I have colleceted so far it appears that the government may have been somewhat successful atsurpressing some natural bsiness cycles in the 70’s and 80’s with the end result of a shorter cycle period developing.
However the new cycles seem to in the early stages so may switch to long cycles yet
Stu says: “I would bet on a lengthening of the cycle.”
Kettle1 says: “the data I have so far shows an initial shortening of cycles”
Once again, consensus breaks out at NJRER.
Ooops. Who’d a thunk it?
U.S. Manufacturing Activity Weakens
Doubts Raised About Strength of Economic Recovery
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125846469044852043.html
“A sharp slowdown in U.S. manufacturing activity last month combined with weakness in producer prices raised concerns that the economy’s nascent recovery is losing steam.
Production at U.S. factories, mines and utilities rose 0.1% in October, following an average 0.9% increase in the prior three months, according to an index released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve. Higher output at utilities last month partially offset the first decline in factory output since June, keeping overall production in positive territory.”
stu shore
I am still in the early stages of a very big undertaking given the amount of data and its interconnections/age/sources. These are just my initial impressions from scratching the surface.
BC,
Dis you see that Bruce is doing Greetings in Buffalo on Sunday?
I get the feeling Greetings was chosen as a poetic way of saying farewell, at least with Clarence as a regularly-touring member of the band.
Did you guys read about the Bruce snafu?
Michigan fans were plenty forgiving of Bruce Springsteen’s mistaken “Hello, Ohio” declaration during last Friday’s concert with the E Street Band at the Palace of Auburn Hills outside Detroit.
102: he should have adopted the trick from the Simpsons..(look the note on the back of the guitar)
“Hello…Springfield”
Anyway, given the IQ of that far-left blowhard who got rich thanks to capitalism, I’m not surprised.
More on the jobs thing… Where I am right now, the contractors (that’s me) seem to be working their @sses off because the majority of them came from full time jobs with benefits. They got whacked (like me) and have been willing to take anything and are thankful to just be working regardless of pay. Be prepared to get about 60% of your last salary with no benefits. If you don’t work, you don’t get paid. Companies are going to continue to release their workforce and hire a replacement at a greatly reduced cost with no benefits. It’s not going to show up in any unemployment numbers and the government can tout it as jobs “saved” or “created”. As I said the other day, it’s the beginning of globalization and will ultimately put us on the same level as Guatemala. As long as the masses are feed Pizza Hut, Pepsi and Netflix, they’ll easily comply. Anyone who buys a house right now needs a lobotomy.
(CBS) If current obesity trends continue, more than 40 percent of adults in the United states will be obese and spending on the epidemic will quadruple to $344 billion by 2018, according to a new study released Tuesday.
The study, published by the Partnership to Fight Chronic Disease, notes that the states most in danger of a ballooning obesity epidemic are: Kentucky, Maryland, Mississippi, Ohio, Oklahoma and South Dakota.
The results are based on research by Dr. Ken Thorpe, a health care economist at Emory University and director of PFCD.
“At a time when Congress is looking for savings in health care, this data confirms what we already knew: obesity is where the money is,” Thorpe said in a press release. “Because obesity is related to the onset of so many other illnesses, stopping the growth of obesity in the U.S. is vital not only to our health - but also to the solvency of our health care system.”
Maybe the extra weight in 2012 will cause the planet to implode?
Got toilet paper comrades?
http://www.wtoc.com/global/story.asp?s=11520482
gary (104)-
Can you at least steal the pencils there?
pain (106)-
By “toilet paper”, I thought you meant USD.
Record numbers go hungry in the USGovernment report shows 50m people unable to put food on the table at some point last year
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/nov/17/millions-hungry-households-us-report
109: Absolutely true. I was hungry today too, before I went for lunch.
Clot c’mon insert product of choice for waffles and you can pretty much see where this will be going as the dollar declines. So I guess in a way I was talking about the dollar by mentioning toilet paper.
confused if you marry the the obesity article with PGCs hunger article problem solved. Fat people can live off of their reserves like bear in winter. Problem solved cost to taxpayers, nil.
Stu,
I might be missing something, but your purchase vs. renting analysis seems to be missing some elements.
So you lost $80K in equity over five years. That is $1333 per month.
You had 90K locked up in the down payment.
I think you forgot you mortgage payments and property taxes. Presumably you have been paying your mortgage for the past five years, which is largely interest, not paying down principal. Your property taxes are gone.
You would have been far better off renting than what you suggest.
104.
Gary, that trend has been in full effect since the early 90s. Maybe it just got around to your profession but I’ve been the victim of that trend more than once.
jamil (110)-
Maybe Vince McMahon can start some sort of ultimate combat thing where the particpants fight for food.
So contemporary, yet so end-of-empire Roman…
“Dresden Heights”
Who the heck names a condo development after a firebombed city?
shore (115)-
Too bad the developer couldn’t start the second phase, Stasi Towers.
#115 - Who the heck names a condo development after a firebombed city?
Billy Pilgrim?
“Record numbers go hungry in the USGovernment report shows 50m people unable to put food on the table at some point last year”
I love this nation and it has an awful lot going for it but, this is pathetic. People should not go hungry in this country.
On a related note, I saw a woman with a government food card using it to buy all manner of items of dubious nutritional value. I am all for people getting o make choices in their lives but when the taxpayer is picking up the bill, there should be serious restrictions on what one may purchase.
PLG,
It’s an owner occupied multi and my tenants pay a fair share of the mortgage. Mortgage + escrow payments amount to $3300. Tenants pay $1800, plus we barter some home improvement projects.
So essentially, the Gator family pays $1300 to $1500 per month to live in an apartment that would most likely rent for between $1800 and $2000 on the open market. So you could say we save about $500 per month over renting with a tied up downpayment which is slowly losing equity.
Clot,
And the related complexs, Pol Pot Garden Apartments, and Katyn Wood Villas.
Shore,
The one that kills me is when the mother buys her food with food stamps, but then buys her cigarettes and lottery tickets with cash. I have seen this time and time again when I lived in Jersey City. Those scratch off tickets need to be banned.
wine recommendations for Thanksgiving?
I am supposed to bring white. Am thinking Champagne might be a good choice.
111.Painhrtz says:
November 17, 2009 at 2:32 pm
Clot c’mon insert product of choice for waffles and you can pretty much see where this will be going as the dollar declines. So I guess in a way I was talking about the dollar by mentioning toilet paper.
confused if you marry the the obesity article with PGCs hunger article problem solved. Fat people can live off of their reserves like bear in winter. Problem solved cost to taxpayers, nil.
Or, the obese people revert to cannabalism, for lack of regular food? Similar to the plane which crashed in the Andes and they survived by eating fellow passengers.
shore (118)-
I would submit that the gubmint wouldn’t mind if a few million of us at the edges just starved to death. As long as the spotlight isn’t too bright on it, it’s as good a way as any to thin the population.
Of course, there’s also the Ukrainian solution of injecting people with plague labeled as flu immunizations, but the outcome of that could get a little messy.
Gotta love those new ads for condos and apartments in Jersey City.
Selling NJ as better than NY.
http://www.newportnj.com/getoutofnewyorkintime/
For anyone working in NY, the bonus tax is now 11%, please vote for Paterson in the next election.
Skep. No one actually drinks champagne. I would go for a nice Chardonnay or pinot noir. Without sounding too snooty, I find the woodsy flavor of a chardonnay to be a nice compliment to the fall. Most people pig out at Thanksgiving so a heavy cab or Bordeaux is wasted at a meal like this. A merlot might be preferred by the carnivores or a meritage (American Bordeaux). I would nix the champagne until Xmas or New Year’s Eve.
“Am thinking Champagne might be a good choice.”
With turkey? A decent chard would work better.
Everclear works with all foods.
What’s wrong with a sixer of Iron City?
Yes… a nice wheat beer might go well as well.
What Stu said, except for the Merlot.
Two cheapish wines Clos Du Bois Chard and Estancia Pinot are readily available, consistant in quality and, while they will not knock off peoples’ sox, they are decent wines.
“Everclear works with all foods.”
But one has to “burn te spirit out of the bottle” when finished.
the
confused 123
the obese are going ot eat who exactly? an eldery man in a walker can outrun a morbidly obese person. More likely they become the cattle. OF course its a moot point given how mad max that scenario is.
Is long Pig kosher?
Anybody got any recipes for homeless bum?
NJ Cannibalism Report?
Try La Crema Chardonnay, there 06 is a delight, don’t pay more than 18 a bottle.
Here’s the Turkey Day drink, chez Clot:
http://www.webtender.com/db/ingred/115
How did we miss out on this auction?
http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/17/news/economy/silverdome_buyer/index.htm
118 Shore: “I love this nation and it has an awful lot going for it but, this is pathetic. People should not go hungry in this country. ”
I’m hungry almost every weekday (approximately) between 11am until I go out for lunch. I accept cash and/or vouchers for 5-star restaurants in Manhattan.
deviled bum feet.
delish.
116 frank: “For anyone working in NY, the bonus tax is now 11%, please vote for Paterson in the next election.”
How is bonus defined and for whom it applies?
stu, tack on whatever rent you’re paying at your owner occupied unit to the rent you implied from losing $1333/month in equity. that makes it $2833/month real money out of your pocket at this point.
no other calculation makes sense. think about it.
135.kettle1 says:
November 17, 2009 at 2:56 pm
confused 123
the obese are going ot eat who exactly? an eldery man in a walker can outrun a morbidly obese person. More likely they become the cattle. OF course its a moot point given how mad max that scenario is.
Stay away from Christy if he gets hungry. You never know. It’s happened in the past.
I second the Clos Du Bois. Always reliable and readily available. Often on sale too :)
Why does everyone always knock the merlot.
Randyj,
There a few tax write offs, but you are essentially right. We have pretty much paid an extra $1,000 a month to live where we do. Of course, when our home is worth 2 million in 2024 when the loan is finished, then we will obtained a great deal. Perhaps not.
Clos Du Bois? $22 for double size super sweet Cardonnay, might as well drink Kendall Jackson another subpar supersweet wine.
Try the La Crema, get the 06 don’t overpay.
Wow my grammar is attrocious today. Too busy at work I suppose.
On the La Crema, they have a Russian River and a Sonoma Coast variety. Which are you referring to Sean? My guess is that you has an RR which is about twice the price of the SC. Of course the Clos Du Bois is about the smae price as the SC and I really don’t think it is THAT bad.
Any Torrontes from a top producer will run you $10 max and taste twice as good as some sweet CA chardonnay.
You will also be amazed at how a f-ed up country like Argentina can turn out wine this good.
Stu - Sonoma Coast, I haven’t seen the Russian River in any store.
The wine library has it for $16, which should attract a cheapo like you. :)
I kid of course, you aren’t cheap buy you do squeak when you walk.
Have to bring white, not red, which is why I was thinking champagne (said like Christopher Walken). La Crema sounds nice– I’ve had their pinot noir and enjoyed it and seen the chardonnay in the store frequently. Nice bonus is that I could get 2 bottles for price of a decent champagne. Going in a different direction, would riesling be wrong?
Argentine wines are some of the best values in the wine world, Chilean wines as well, easily match fine California wine for 1/3-1/2 the price. IMHO most(not all) US made wine is overpriced, vs. the South America and most(not all) is still not up to the standard of wine produced in France, Italy, and Spain. If you want to try an incredible red Montes Alpha M, it is a fantastic wine and will cellar well for quite a while.
anyone had this sparkling wine from oregon?
http://www.wine.com/V6/Argyle-Brut-2005/wine/96973/detail.aspx
Question for the realtor types.
Recently a realtor in Harding Township told me that his sellers are overpricing their homes expecting lowballs and that he has his clients make offers of $500 to $1 million of asking price on homes of $2 mil.
Seems strange to me, but then again alot of homes in Harding are way overpriced.
clot: are you aware of this new column from the Economist? I assume you are….
http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14447179
Clot they may have your recipe;
Cannibals nabbed selling corpse to kebab house
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russian police have arrested three homeless people suspected of eating a 25-year-old man they had butchered and selling other bits of the corpse to a local kebab house.
Suspicions were raised when dismembered parts of a human body were found near a bus stop in the outskirts of the Russian city of Perm, 1,150 km (720 miles) east of Moscow.
Three homeless men with previous criminal records have been arrested on suspicion of setting upon a foe with knives and a hammer before chopping up his corpse to eat, local investigators said in a statement on their http://www.susk.perm.ru Web site.
“After carrying out the crime, the corpse was divided up: part was eaten and part was also sold to a kiosk selling kebabs and pies,” the Prosecutor-General’s main investigative unit for the Perm region said in a statement issued Friday.
It was not immediately clear from the statement if any of the corpse had been sold to customers.
riesling - dr. loosen. its cheap and easy.
re: #158 - sound like anyone we know?
Quote “He was too skeptical about the case for using government spending to avert depressions. He underestimated the self-correcting power of democracy.”
[159] ruggles
Yes, I have had the Doctor over my house a few times. He’s always welcome.
Schumpeter says:
November 17, 2009 at 9:51 am
chi (34)-
Big yuks!
Strumpet: FYI the creator of the video is a massive fan of Friedrich von Hayek. In fact, it was one of his main motivations to attend Chicago.
161 Nom - good to hear. maybe if I go slumming south of the border, I’ll bring you a bottle.
Actually there are some good NY state wines that just scream thanksgiving. Anything with Baco Noir grape produced locally seems to do pretty well, it is not the most sophisticated wine but the tartness is almost reminiscent of cranberry. My second recommendation is a young beaujolais made with gammay noir grapes also a festive spicy good fall pick with a hint of cranberry. These reds go fairly well with turkey anything else will not go so well except maybe a pinot, I would not go merlot, cab, or cab based blend(Meritage, Bordeaux) with turkey I just don’t think it goes together well at all. But thats just my take, I’m no expert just enjoy good wine.
Not being a riesling drinker I’ve never heard of Dr. Loosen, but the name evokes images of college students and homeless people. The name sound like bum wine, except the fact that it is varietal.
Wine recommendation for Stu & clot:
Chateau Deux jeunes filles, une tasse
j: Trimbach override….
jcer says:
November 17, 2009 at 3:59 pm
Not being a riesling drinker I’ve never heard of Dr. Loosen, but the name evokes images of college students and homeless people. The name sound like bum wine, except the fact that it is varietal
[164] jcer
If I were to go red with the bird, I think the Le Grand Pinot Noir would be nice. Pretty cheap at the Cranford Wine Seller, and I tried it at Rosie’s last weekend. Nice. I may go back and buy a few more bottles.
Still gotta build the damn shelves. Tired of unstacking boxes to get at my grape.
[166] chi
Ewwwww.
[163] ruggles
Bring your gat. You know how dangerous Brigadoon (a.k.a. Camden on 22) can be.
[163] ruggles
add yourself to the list. I’ll explain later.
nomdeplumenj@gmail.com
I like reisling for thanksgiving. It delish in an over the top sort of way, just like most thanksgiving sides and desserts. Its not a classy combo, but then neither is bacon laden stuffing or sweet potatoes with marshmallows.
may or may not have been posted…
Housing Market Can’t Recover Without US Support: Experts
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33996717
Actually most relatives would be happy with two buck chuck (or is it three buck since its 2.99?).
I always use reisling for basting, and take swigs as the day progresses.
I’ll have to give it a try, it looks like the type of wine I would enjoy with turkey, a light red with hints of cherry maybe a little spicy/tart, from the looks of it, not unlike a Beaujolais. I want to get a home with a basement to cellar wine, maybe install climate and humidity control. I have way to many home demands for my meager budget.
“I have way to many home demands for my meager budget.”
same here but I’ve learned to let some things go. Example: I like fresh food, so I’d rather live near a great market than have expensive pantry/freezer space. I’d take it of course, if I can afford it but for now its off my list.
also, love a good porto during the holidays. Its better than Nyquil.
Verizon plans to cut 1,000 jobs. Part of larger plan to shed 8,000 before the year is up…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Union-says-Verizon-laying-off-apf-313321272.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
Nom & Ruggles
I just tried the Dr. Losen. Sehr gut. But I actually mistook it for this bottle of Darting Riesling that I’ve been after because the logos are very similar.
If you can get your hands on the Darting Riesling Kabinett Duerkheimer Nonnengarten, 2006 vintage it is absolutely amazing. The 2008 is not so good.
I wonder sometimes….oh never mind.
I’ve started looking in Bergen, 500K seems to buy a 3 bedroom shed complete with renovated poorly kitchen and bad electrical/plumbing, most seem to have less space than my 2 bedroom apartment.
3 bedroom/2 bath. The perfect home. Couple that with a rec room and a two care garage, and you have a family shelter so completely functional, that folks from every nation will want one.
chi (158)-
I’ll sue those bastards!
“that folks from every nation will want one.”
Essex [183],
One? How about 2,3,4,5…..?
And look where that got us.
Current Schumpeter column - Nov 12
http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14844995
If you forget wine for the Holidays stop on by 7-11 and check and see if they are selling this.
7-11 announcement of Yosemite Road:
“Chardonnay and cabernet sauvignon, will retail for about $3.99, a price-point that has been doing well despite — or perhaps because of — the economic doldrums.”
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hvTsX7Xa1cyYCfmv91H2EBCuuJOgD9BOEV680
Sweeeeeeet mother of gawd. How wierd will it all get? No body knows.
Off topic: Shaping up to be a nice week for Greinke.
http://blogs.suntimes.com/sportsprose/2009/05/zack_greinke_fiancee_emily_kuchar.html
Were the real Schumpeter still alive, he’d be posting at ZH.
“Yes, yes, everyone knows commercial real estate is a neutron bomb waiting to go off, and while many are yapping, nobody is doing jack. The Fed will deal with that implosion, the expectation goes, just as tidily as it dealt with the last bubble implosion. All, by the way, is good now - remember, every single Fed governor took turns yesterday to gang bang the concept of yet another bubble in process. Someone should familiarize the Fed members with the GOLDS COMDTY GP function in Bloomberg: remember the NY Fed has the biggest trading desk in the world: they should by now be familiar with more than just the BUY function on Bloomberg Tradebook.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/moodys-cmbs-delinquency-tracker-hits-all-time-high
[180] lost
“If you can get your hands on the Darting Riesling Kabinett Duerkheimer Nonnengarten, 2006 vintage it is absolutely amazing. The 2008 is not so good.”
Wehrstehen. Danke.
[176] jcer
True, a good comparison, but not as chewy or jammy as a Beauj.
Kass:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10627813/1/kass-the-quant-bubble.html
[152] clot
So??? Dime out some good Torrontes already. I like a decent one, and need to stock up the whites. So drop a fcuking dime!
The NJ Real Estate, Market, Wine, and Meat Report.
That’s all folks. Tschuss.
” La Crema Chardonnay”
Nice and buttery, just the way I like them. At a higher price point, the Staggs Leap can be quite good, ‘97 was outstanding.
i really wish john mccain were our president! that guy would have us out of the doldrums in no-time!
/sarcasm off
197 yikes:
“i really wish john mccain were our president! that guy would have us out of the doldrums in no-time!”
Well, given that Congress is controlled by dems he could not have pushed any real pro-growth legislation needed to get out of recession but at least he would not have let the economy to collapse with lunatic anti-business legislation and threats. Business owners would feel much more safe to hire employees without all sort of gigantic health care, cap and tax, pro-union bills and mandates on horizon.
and he would have focused on economy rather than tranformation of the country to some bizarre communist worker paradise.
Shore,
Regarding food stamps. I survived the winter of 96 without utilities except space heaters for heat. No cellphones, no car just a Walmart bike and a steady diet of Ramen noodles and turkey burgers.
I used to see the foodstamp crowd buying subs at a convenience store. What was I doing wrong?
Survival can be done without the government tit but for those born with a silver spoon I suspect it will be hard. It will be interesting to see how this shakes out. No mo Obama money just good ole American survival of the fittest.
i agree jamil… loans modification is awesome
So just found out that a family member foreclosed on his home in Arizonia. Strategic foreclosure considering the entire neighborhood is abandoned. All brand new homes too.
plume (194)-
Urban Uco. Best one I’ve ever had was the ‘07. Gotta think the ‘08 (most likely the one you’ll find) will be great, too.
jamil (198)-
Man, you really are gulping down the Kool-Aid. That wizened old geezer wouldn’t have us in a spot that is one iota different from the one we’re in now.
He’d probably have also surrounded himself with the same crew of dolts Dear Leader has, too.
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