Wed 18 Nov 2009
“Delinquency rates are rising and expected to peak at record levels.”
Categories: National Real Estate , Risky LendingFrom the WSJ:
Mortgage-Delinquency Rate Rose to New High in 3rd Quarter
Mortgage delinquencies rose for the 11th straight time to a new high in the third quarter, although the rate of increase again relaxed a bit, credit information company TransUnion reported Tuesday.
“Until the housing market can consistently demonstrate several months of home value appreciation and the unemployment rate improves, mortgage delinquency will likely continue to rise,” said F.J. Guarrera, vice president of TransUnion’s financial services division.
Mortgage loan delinquency, or the ratio or borrowers 60 or more days past due, rose to 6.25% in the third quarter from 3.96% a year earlier and 5.81% in the previous quarter. While still increasing, the rate of growth sequentially decelerated for the third time in a row.
From HousingWire:
TransUnion Sees Delinquency Rise for 11 Quarters
Mortgage loan delinquency rose for the 11th straight quarter in Q309, according to market research by credit bureau TransUnion.
Overall mortgage delinquency of 60 or more days reached a record 6.25% in TransUnion’s ongoing study of a random selection of 27m credit files from its national consumer database. The rate is up from 5.81% in Q209 and is expected by the credit bureau to come in just under 7% by year-end 2009.
Despite the rising trend, TransUnion saw a bit of positive news in that the rate of increasing delinquency narrowed in Q309, marking the third consecutive quarter of deceleration.
“While it continues to be a positive sign that the increase in mortgage borrower delinquency rates has slowed for three consecutive quarters, we have to keep things in perspective,” said FJ Guarrera, vice president of TransUnion’s financial services division. “Delinquency rates are rising and expected to peak at record levels.”
From the Morning Call:
Mortgage delinquencies rise in the Lehigh Valley
Mortgage delinquencies in the Lehigh Valley area continued to rise in the third quarter, indicating the weight of foreclosures on the local housing market is likely to keep growing, according to a new report released today.
For the three months ended Sept. 30, 4.5 percent of mortgages in the Lehigh Valley area defined as Lehigh, Northampton and Carbon counties and Warren County, N.J. were 60 or more days past due, according to the credit reporting agency TransUnion in Chicago. That’s up from 3.1 percent in the same quarter a year ago and up from 4.2 percent in the second quarter of this year.
Being two months behind is considered a first step toward foreclosure, because it’s so hard to catch up with payments at that point.
The local mortgage delinquency rate has been climbing since the first quarter of 2007, when only 1.8 percent of mortgages were 60 or more days delinquent, according to TransUnion.
Damned if they do, damned if they don’t.
From CNBC:
Appraisals Now Center Stage in Housing Recovery
The home buyer tax credit was extended and expanded, and mortgage interest rates have actually been trending even lower, but housing’s recovery is still being hampered by new appraisal rules.
At least that’s what the builders and the mortgage bankers continue to say.
In the monthly sentiment survey from the National Association of Home Builders, released today, researchers found, “fully one-third of respondents indicated that they have recently lost sales due to low appraisal values.
This is up from a quarter of respondents who indicated as much in a survey taken in July.”
The trouble is that appraisers are often using foreclosed or distressed properties as comps. The bigger problem, according to the mortgage bankers, is that the new Home Valuation Code of Conduct, instituted by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in conjunction with the New York State Attorney General, Andrew Cuomo, is putting inexperienced, poorly paid appraisers in the drivers seat on the road to housing recovery. The whole idea was to put a fire wall between lenders and appraisers, but it’s done more than that, and I won’t get into all of it, because regular blog readers know I’ve done this over and over.
There is currently a bill in the House of Representatives (H.R. 3044) sponsored by Rep. Travis Childers, D - MS, to institute a moratorium on the HVCC, but it’s currently stalled. Members of the House Financial Services Committee did get it tacked on to the Consumer Financial Protection Act (H.R. 3126) which passed out of committee in late October.
From the WSJ:
Fannie, Freddie Woes Hurt Apartments
The deteriorating commercial real-estate market is hitting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the housing-finance giants that were taken over by the government last year after billions of dollars in losses on residential real estate.
The firms, which together have taken more than $110 billion in capital infusions from the Treasury, stepped up their lending for apartment buildings as the commercial real-estate market peaked, and they are now facing rapidly rising loan losses.
Fannie, which has been more active than Freddie, faces the biggest problems. Its serious delinquency rate, or loans that were 60 days or more past due, stood at 0.62% at the end of September, up from 0.16% a year ago. One troubling sign: one-quarter of the $180 billion of apartment-building loans on Fannie’s books were originated near the top of the market in 2007 and those loans account for nearly half of all its commercial-loan delinquencies.
Fannie increased to $1.2 billion its reserves for losses on multifamily loans at the end of September, up from $104 million at the end of 2008. In a statement, Fannie Mae said market fundamentals “will remain under pressure in the near term” and that the company is taking steps “to mitigate risks associated with weak rental demand.”
The losses from Fannie’s and Freddie’s $300 billion in apartment-building loans will be a fraction of their losses on single-family homes, where the two firms back $5 trillion of loans. But the bigger impact could be on the market for apartment buildings. The firms were responsible for 84% of all multifamily lending last year, up from 34% of the market in 2006, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
From Newsday:
NY passes new foreclosure protections
The state Legislature has passed a bill that will give New York state homeowners and renters more protection during foreclosures.
It will expand the mandatory 90-day pre-foreclosure notice to all types of home loans — not just subprime mortgages — so all homeowners are given information and time to take action.
Gov. David Paterson introduced the bill. It will allow the Banking
Department and the Division of Housing and Community Renewal to find and help homeowners facing foreclosure.
It also creates new protections for renters living in foreclosed properties, allowing them to remain for the remainder of their lease or 90 days — whichever is longer.
From the NY Times:
Philadelphia Gives Homeowners a Way to Stay Put
Christopher Hall stepped tentatively through the entranceway of City Hall Courtroom 676 and took his place among dozens of others confronting foreclosure purgatory. His hopes all but extinguished, he fully expected the morning to end with a final indignity: He would sign over the deed to his house — his grandfather’s two-story row house; the only house in which he had ever lived; the house where he had raised three children.
…
A union roofer, Mr. Hall, 42, had not worked since August 2008, when the contractor that employed him as a foreman went broke and laid off more than 40 people. He had not made a mortgage payment in more than a year, and his lender, Bank of America, was threatening to auction off his house through the sheriff’s office.
…
Under the rules adopted by Philadelphia’s primary civil court, no owner-occupied house may be foreclosed on and sold by the sheriff’s office before a “conciliation conference,” a face-to-face meeting between the homeowner and the lender aimed at striking a workable compromise. Every homeowner facing a default filing is furnished with counseling, and sometimes legal representation.
…
“You’ve got more time,” Ms. Phillips told him. “We’ll get this all worked out,” she said.
“Thank you so much,” Mr. Hall said softly, his body shaking with pent-up anxiety now tinged with relief. “It’s a lot of weight off of my shoulders.”
You know, the crazy part about all of this is that at one time, foreclosure was considered the solution, not the problem.
Lots of charts I have seen show the slew or resets on mortgages increasing rapidly.
I wonder how much more the housing market is going to deteriorate and if it is going to crush us in the next 1-2 years.
Thoughts?
Also on the investment side, lots of FNMA and GNMA pools of bonds in the short / intermediate term fixed income mutual funds. Even though the gov’t backs a lot of these bonds, will these take it on the chin?
Housing problems, jobless recovery, in two years, will 2009 look like the good old days?
#6
“You know, the crazy part about all of this is that at one time, foreclosure was considered the solution, not the problem.”
its not even the homeowner’s problem its the taxpayers.
#6 Hal
any idea how many foreclosures make it to REO and what kind of timeline it happens in??
I’ve thought all along that people borrowed way to much and wouldn’t be able to sustain their mortgage payments even with a job. but this day and age it doesn’t seem like REO happens as long as your trying.
“foreclosure was considered the solution, not the problem”.
Extrapolated from the same mentality that awards
trophies to ALL of the children at season’s end no matter
how bad their team was.
7&8,
so what you are saying is that taxpayers foot the bill and the folks who don’t / can’t pay the mortgage keep the house.
In that case, if gov’t remains solvent I guess the only fallout is bitter taxpayers who foot the bill.
My guess is it won’t play out quite like that though but I am not even close to an expert on this stuff.
Seems to me with all the upcoming resets, its going to continue to erode.
So it looks like people are still in some denial. Would anyone have info on the attached? Still seems steep to me in Bradley Beach 500 block…
$699,000
3 Bedrooms
2 Full | 1 Partial Baths
Listing #: 20942966
Does have a one bedroom cottage…
PS: no yard but nice front porch, lots of curb appeal
gary says: [#104]
November 17, 2009 at 2:02 pm
More on the jobs thing… Where I am right now, the contractors (that’s me) seem to be working their @sses off because the majority of them came from full time jobs with benefits. They got whacked (like me) and have been willing to take anything and are thankful to just be working regardless of pay. Be prepared to get about 60% of your last salary with no benefits. If you don’t work, you don’t get paid. Companies are going to continue to release their workforce and hire a replacement at a greatly reduced cost with no benefits. It’s not going to show up in any unemployment numbers and the government can tout it as jobs “saved” or “created”. As I said the other day, it’s the beginning of globalization and will ultimately put us on the same level as Guatemala. As long as the masses are feed Pizza Hut, Pepsi and Netflix, they’ll easily comply. Anyone who buys a house right now needs a lobotomy.
****
Greetings All, from a long, long time lurker who has been unemployed since late 2008.
Gary’s post touches on something that I’ve worried about quite a bit: what will the “New Normal” be like?
His description of the Brave New American Workplace rings true to me. The figures on higher productivity/fewer workers are downright scary.
No doubt some companies are on the brink and have to keep squeezing more out of the few, but then I read how so many are treading water nicely by cutting costs and workers.
I am very afraid that the Great Recession has started a new race to the bottom and I don’t know what we can do to stop it.
I’ve also wondered about the moral hazard of the high level of illegal workers in the US. For years millions of Illegal immigrants have taken jobs away from Americans by doing more work for less money. Instead of coming to the defense of their fellow Americans when their jobs were snatched away, this job theft and suppression of wages has usually produced little protest from most of the rest of us.
Will this successful exploitation of some workers turn into the exploitation of all?
What can we do to keep America from turning into Guatemala?
you can stay in your home for at least
a year,, and longer
13- I hear you! Bit by bit, the rewards we have been used to at work are being taken away. Pensions, 401k matches, yearly raises,etc. are no longer a sure thing. I can’t tell you how many times I have heard people say, “Well, at least I have a job” this year. But see that to me is part of the problem. The employers know we are grateful just for the paycheck so competitively speaking why should they give us more than they have to?
Whine,
Same reason that you don’t want to pay more for a house than you have to. Supply and demand. Make your own services a unique value proposition to an employer and your odds improve.
16- That is very true. I keep trying to expand my skill set to stay one step ahead of others. I remember one of my college professors saying so many years ago that our “educations would never really end” and I didn’t really understand what she meant back them. Now I do. Any extra skill I can learn to give me an edge is worthwhile.
Here’s a good one from this mornings paper. Christie could start by eliminating these groups. They couldn’t even explain how they benefit NJ.
Non-government employees cash in on tax-payer funded pensions
New Jerseyans will pay pension benefits to a lobbyist earning $191,000 a year – just one of scores of non-government employees, including high-paid executives and their staffs, who are entitled to public retirement payouts.
Already, taxpayers are giving $1.3 million a year to 62 retirees of three Trenton organizations: the League of Municipalities, the School Boards Association and the Association of Counties, records show. That’s in addition to the roughly $7.5 million in local and county taxes handed over for the groups’ annual membership dues that pay the six-figure salaries and cover operating costs.
None of the three associations is part of state government. Privately run, they were granted pension rights by legislators decades before New Jersey entered a fiscal crisis that is leading to an estimated $8 billion structural deficit.
The pension system, meanwhile, is in danger of collapse after years of missteps and multibillion-dollar investment losses. So great is the crisis that last year, Governor Corzine raised the retirement age and enacted other pension-system reforms.
As taxpayers squirm beneath the highest property taxes in the country, the retirement bill from these groups will only grow. Right now, 107 non-government employees have combined pensionable salaries of more than $7 million, according to Department of Treasury data analyzed by The Record.
One of those employees is Bill Dressel, who fills many roles with the New Jersey League of Municipalities: organizer of this week’s annual Atlantic City mega-conference, registered lobbyist, $191,000-a-year executive director.
Celeste Carpiano, who makes $205,000 a year as head of the New Jersey Association of Counties, will also get a publicly funded pension. So to will Marie Bilik, who gets $150,000 to oversee the New Jersey School Boards Association.
At times like this, Dressel says, New Jerseyans need the League of Municipalities to lobby the Legislature for local interests.
“We’ve published a report that identified a number of reforms that we felt would have a direct impact on the public-retirement system, including on ourselves,” Dressel said. “We would defend our policy actions irrespective of the fact that we are members of the pension system.”
Rather than costing taxpayers, he suggested, the league is saving money by running training workshops, educating on legal issues and vetting and testifying on any legislation that could affect local government. Its Web site is a massive compendium of information on such topics as flu, immigrants’ rights and land-use law.
Dressel, 60, calls his nearly $200,000-a-year salary well-earned.
“I manage the staff, I manage our building, the magazine, the lobbyist staff,” he said. “We have a multifaceted program that meets the needs of 13,000 elected and appointed officials. It’s more than just a 9-to-5 job. I’m here at 7:15 in the morning and 7 at night, on my cellphone.”
And he oversees the league’s three-day Atlantic City conference, the largest of its kind in the country and an annual rite of November for New Jersey’s political elite, thousands of lesser elected officials who aspire to join their ranks and vendors trolling for government contracts. Last year the event was a $1.9 million source of revenue for the league, according to its financial statements.
Carpiano, of the counties association, declined to comment on her group’s affiliation with the pension system. She also did not respond to a request for financial information, which the municipalities and school-board groups disclose on their Web sites.
On Thursday, Governor-elect Chris Christie is scheduled to speak to league members, although he declined to give reporters any preview of his remarks.
Christie is expected to build on some of the pension reforms enacted by Governor Corzine. Last year, Corzine signed legislation that raised the retirement age, barred retirement payouts for part-time employees paid less than $7,500 a year and discontinued out-of-state service credits.
The retirement funds, which had a market value of $78 billion at the start of fiscal 2009, were worth $68 billion at the end of September, according to the Treasury division of investment.
Throughout his campaign, Christie said he would consider changes to the system, although he said he had no proposals to change benefits for local-government and school employees or for those in law enforcement.
For the School Boards Association — the largest of the three non-government groups with public benefits — that could be a relief at a time when the current administration is looking to cut hundreds of millions of dollars, and the incoming governor has said he will examine every expenditure.
The 73-employee association was authorized to form by legislation in the 1950s, said Frank Belluscio, communications director.
“It was determined that its employees could participate in the state pension system as a local public employer,” he said. The association, he said, “is designated by state law as the provider of training in school finance, law, governance and ethics to the state’s 4,800 school board members and is also the statewide aggregator of cooperative energy purchasing for school districts.”
13, 15 - Nothing can be done. We are powerless. It’s the modern version of the great depression. Just sedate the masses with sh1t and the pipeline will keep moving along. I’ve heard friends and family who’ve been downsized say they “refuse” to work for a certain amount of money. Sure, go ahead, there are 50 people behind you waiting to step in. And by all means, buy that house because rates are so low and you get a tax break. LOL! Sure, get swindled even further. This blog has always been three years ahead of everything else, you think we’re making this stuff up?
Dressel, 60, calls his nearly $200,000-a-year salary well-earned.
“I manage the staff, I manage our building, the magazine, the lobbyist staff,” he said. “We have a multifaceted program that meets the needs of 13,000 elected and appointed officials. It’s more than just a 9-to-5 job. I’m here at 7:15 in the morning and 7 at night, on my cellphone.”
LMAO!! Me work hard! Who the fvck needs you? I’ll do your job for 50% of your salary, m0ron!
#4 - He would sign over the deed to his house — his grandfather’s two-story row house; the only house in which he had ever lived; the house where he had raised three children
Nice article. I noticed it took until page 3 for them to mention that he cashed-out the house, one with no mortgage, to buy a motorcycle and a boat. Oh, and he didn’t understand the mortgage he was signing at the time….
I’m normaly not one to partake in “blame the victim”, but this guy deserves to lose his house.
“I put my whole life into this house,” he said. “After I do all this work, they want to take it from me. You’ve got to regroup and move, but where? If I can’t pay my mortgage, how am I going to pay rent? And I have a whole house full of furniture.”
You did nothing, your grandfather did and you f’d it up.
(18)
A colleague that attends the 3 day LOM conference in AC tells me that it is basically a bacchinalia on the taxpayers dime. 3 days of lavish partying, with food, booze, and hookers. He says that every hooker in the state has those days set aside for AC, and no one elsewhere can get one while the conference is on (did not ask him how he knew that though).
FTAlphaville has a fun article on CRE exposure at Maiden Ln.
…Which means that the percentage of the Maiden Lane III CRE CDO portfolio rated AAA has fallen dramatically from 16.7 to 1.9 per cent in just three months.
The Pontiac Silver Dome sells for $583,000. That’s as much as some sucker is going be hoodwinked for to live in a POS 3bd/2bth in prestigous Upper Poopyville. Are you beginning to see the disconnect yet?
http://finance.yahoo.com/retirement/article/108175/winning-bidders-to-turn-silverdome-into-soccer-stadium?mod=realestate-buy
#13 - answer’s simple: we need to bring back unions. I know this will draw lots of criticism, but the simple fact is that people will work themselves to death out of fear. It is in our nature. So the only way to speak truth to power is to put some power on our side by organizing. The tragedy of the move to the service economy is that if you’re striking for decent wages and work conditions, it helps that your strike actually hurts someone badly enough that they change their behavior. The jobs many of us have now won’t do that.
As to (18) there’s another name for this game: corruption. Let’s see if Christie really wants to go after it.
#21 Exactly. The guy is given a gift, a free house, and he still messes it up. And we are supposed to feel sorry for him.
[25] ‘bum,
I agree that unions would be essential to changing the work-life balance, and figure prominently in Obama’s vision for restructuring our economy.
Now, I have two questions for you, and I think that they inform the debate: First, what will be the likely effect on manufacturing and other industries with foreign competition? Second, what effect will mass unionization have on local service industries (which is 90% of our economy) in a business with elastic demand when their costs go up?
I have said it before, and I will say it again: Obama cannot advance his economic, tax, and environmental agendas unless he plays the protectionist card.
This is not a card one just whips out without severe dislocations to the economy, which is why the administration is pursuing protectionism in an incremental fashion. In fact, Norman Thomas’ pithy view on american acceptance of socia1ism can easily be applied to its view on acceptance of protectionism, and I think the guys at 1600 Penna. know that.
[21] tosh,
Everyone in Philly is a victim. Go ahead, ask them. They’ll tell you.
And everyone in prison is innocent. Go ahead, ask them . . .
#27 It apppears that Obama did not do well in China, and got nothing of substance from them. The Chinese govt stage managed his whole trip. And they are not going to be lectured by the U.S. anymore. I think they completerly played the president.
3b [29],
Played him like a harp.
You don’t beg our bankers to adjust their currency bands, unless you know that is their intention. China will eventually widen their bands, on their time frame. Doesn’t anyone have a clue?
But he really sounds like he knows what he’s talking about, doesn’t he? And, he does stand for hope and change. I’m sure that jobs summit in December will yield hundreds of thousands of hirings by the spring. :o
#30 BC True. But apart from that, he is completerly out of his league, just like his predecessor was, more intelligent, but still uninformed etc. And not one area where he can claim any kind of expertise.
I am tired of knowing more about the history, geopraphy, economics, etc, than the current and prior president.
[32] 3b
Everyone on this blog knows more than the current and former presidents.
Go ahead, ask them, they’ll tell you!
#31 Actually I don’t think so, he does very well when scripted, but without that; I find him unimpressive Uses lots of ums, ers, and you knows when he speaks. Style? Yes,but no real substance.
[29] 3b
And if world leaders wanted to do something about global warming, how about cutting out all that travel for useless “summits”?
Glorified photo ops. When was the last time something concrete got done at a summit?
There’s an old adage in presidential politics: When the president is in trouble, go abroad. I had not thought that he was in that much “trouble” in the ratings and with his policies (which are moving, albeit glacially), so trips like this one are either (a) coincidental, or (b) indicative of a belief or feeling in the West Wing that should have us wondering what is coming next.
[34] 3b.
Lots of fun things happen when he goes off script! Just ask the Cambridge Police Department!
Housing Starts fall 10.6%
http://www.marketwatch.com/story//housing-starts-stage-broad-retreat-in-october-2009-11-18
OT Alert
I think the Somalis will figure out, it just isn’t a good idea to attack this ship again.
“CNN) — The U.S.-flagged cargo ship Maersk Alabama, which played a central role in a bloody hijacking drama last spring, was attacked again Wednesday.
But this time, the container ship fended off the attack by firing back, the European Union’s anti-piracy force said.
Pirates fired automatic weapons at the ship as it sailed about 350 nautical miles east of Somalia, the EU naval force said.
Private security guards aboard the Maersk Alabama ship fired back and used loud sounds to repel the attack, the U.S. Navy said. . . .”
grim unmoderate #37. (housing starts fall 10.6%)
13:
“I’ve also wondered about the moral hazard of the high level of illegal workers in the US. For years millions of Illegal immigrants have taken jobs away from ”
Racist!
Re: Pirates of the Somali Coast -
It’s all fun & games, until somebody fires back.
Let’s see if these “pirates” (who would make Errol Flynn renounce the word) learn anything. This could either go two ways…..they will attack ships sailing under a different flag.
Or they will arm themselves with TOW missles.
37. Cruise Lines should run “Bag a Pirate” tours off the Somali Coast. Passengers could either BYO firearms or rent them from the ship. Sea Safaris may prove to be very profitable.
” find him unimpressive Uses lots of ums, ers, and you knows when he speaks. Style? Yes,but no real substance.”
our first teleprompter president
Comrade - Re: “Obama’s vision for restructuring our economy.”
Stimulus Part II starts next month.
Watch for the fast track though Congress and the packaging of it as a Jobs Creation “Progrom” for the Holidays to save America, bla bla bla.
I expect lots of Union Jobs.
Rail, Bridges highways etc.
Anyone notice the new sign that went up on Rt . 78 West just after the toll booth by Newark Airport?
The road and bridge construction that was already funded has now been relabeled Recovery.gov with the new expensive sign that has that new Recovery.gov LOGO.
Facism is alive and well.
That could be a nice job opportunity for recently-unemployed guys with their own firearms…..Private Security Force for the shipping industry.
Long days spent relaxing in the sun, punctuated by target practice on approaching rubber rafts.
Question for the crowd regarding unemployment.
Now that we can get 99 weeks of unemployment, is anyone considering sandbagging it at work and getting laid off so they can sit this recession out on a beach somewhere for the next two years?
Beach Bum :11
I looked into that listing in Bradley Beach. Nice house, with guest cottage.
But $699K ?!?!?! If they end up getting anywhere near asking, it will be the highest non-waterview sale in Bradley since summer of 2008.
Kind of like a bunny gunner in Australia. That was a job I always wanted. Paid to sit on an old land cruiser with a 22 and shoot rabbits all day while drinking. Unfortunately, the pay was not very good and I am not a big fan of the hot weather.
#25 Totally against unions. Too many with a sense of entitlement. Look how the UAW killed the US auto industry and listen to the CWA and NJEA speak in NJ. They did serve a purpose a long a time ago but have outlived their usefulness. Back when unions were formed, there weren’t as many labor laws on the books.
Sean (46),
“Question for the crowd regarding unemployment.”
Try finding a job after a 99 week foray on unemployment.
Now get back to work!
Wow, no mention of the unexpected drop in housing starts. What is this blog becoming?
some points…
Regarding the President in China, I always say you can tell who has the stronger negotiating position; if US was in good shape, then Obama would not have to fly to Beiging; it would be the reverse
Regarding complaints about the appraisals being too low, and the stronger firewall. I guess, they don’t want to face the reality that values really have dropped. Funny - reform is great as long as they get to keep making money and others foot the bill.
About the unemployment situation. I think we all know that this will take years to plays out. When I was looking at houses in 2005, I had already decided that anything I found would have to be sustainable on 50% of my then current salary, because it was already clear where my career was headed. But unfortunately. Naturally, since everyone else was living in euphoria then, I could not find anything acceptable in my price range. Maybe I never will.
[42]
There was a great internet hoax recently that promoted, right down to film clips and pics, just such a cruise.
It was polished enough that some national enforcement agencies and newspapers in several countries looked into it, to determine if it really was a hoax.
That said, there are such myths perpetrated here; one that I heard of around the election was that KKK types would organize “hunting trips” in the ghetto for fun and practice. It was so weak though, that I don’t think it ever made it to snopes or any other site (anyone want to check?)
Pontiac — Nearly 35 years after taxpayers spent $55.7 million building the Pontiac Silverdome and a year after a $20 million sale fell through, city officials have sold the arena once called the most desirable property in Oakland County.
The price: $583,000.
Niiiice.
99% depreciation over 35 years, plus of course all the money poured into property taxes and maintenance.
OT-Health Issue
Yesterday some panel recommended that women ought to start getting mammograms at age 50, instead of the current 40. The panel suggested it is not “cost effective” to have it at 40. The fcking bastards!!!! One step forward, two steps back. Who the fck are they to put a price tag on our health!!!
This recommendation is insane, irresponsible and reckless.
My aunt,46, and one cousin, 37, were diagnosed with early stage breast cancer. Both were treated early and are doing great.
If this is what’s to come in the healthscare reform, God help us all.
If the bill passes, with this stipulation included, all wives, daughters and grandaughters of members of Congress, House and the President should be forced to adhere to new guidelines.
Are we, the very same people who pay their salaries and voted them into office, less valuable?
Honestly, this gov’t is taking everyone down the shit-filled gutter.
Nom 38,
if you remember, in early 09 I suggested it was only a matter of time before cargo ships started hiring private security in the area of Somalia
long term, protectionism is the only defense the US had against becoming Argentina due to globalization. It won’t be pleasant, bit could actually have positive long term consequences such as rebuilding erican production. In the end we have no choice and sustatial trade barriers will be erected.
Stu, 51
here.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akFBKuUGSnwk&pos=1
Doesn’t matter. Market ignores it anyway.
Gold at 1150. Dollar = trash.
I’m sure the best is yet to come…
sl
Housing starts drop 11%, Bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=ad6MwbnU8CWY
Orion 55
Just ammo for big insurance to deny payment for it..
Then, late diagnosis = early death = less cost to them “usually.”
sl
53 Com:
Speaking of hoaxes, the one that Al Gore has been spreading (not the one in which he invented the Internet), is on the news again.
Now the scam artist lectured the masses that the earth is very hot - millions of degrees - just few kilometers below the surface. Uhh.
No word how many AP fact-checkers are on it. AP had 12 fact-checkers for Palin’s book and they found glaring inaccuracies, such as “not often in expensive hotels” is not true (she spent 4 nights in expensive hotels).
Confused 42
your behind the curve, that was proposed almost a year ago and someone put up a joke website advertising said tours.
Honestly, this gov’t is taking everyone down the shit-filled gutter.
You mean “has already taken”
Welcome to the New World Order: Everyman/woman/child for his/herself.
sl
[55] orion
What I found interesting is that while every other media outlet took a “WTF?” approach to that story, and interviewed lots of experts, docs, and association heads about how they disagreed, the NYT ran a very matter-of-fact story, and continually emphasized how this panel, which is gov. appointed, was “independent” and “nonpartisan.” Much more so than other news outlets that simply named the panel and gave some basic info about it. I found that odd.
It also struck me as a pre-emptive defense of the panel’s conclusion, and of the panel itself, almost as if the NYT writer expected that it would be controversial and reverberate into the current healthcare debate.
sl, 59
I get where they’re coming from. It’s to prepare the masses for the future.
And I agree with your equation: late diagnosis = early death = less cost to them “usually.”
Fckn scuzzbags!
Obama said in the interview with Fox conducted in Beijing during his nine-day trip to Asia.
“It is important though to recognize if we keep on adding to the debt, even in the midst of this recovery, that at some point, people could lose confidence in the U.S. economy in a way that could actually lead to a double-dip recession,” he said.
So why are you doing it?
[60] jamil
“glaring inaccuracies such as “not often in expensive hotels” is not true (she spent 4 nights in expensive hotels).”
Are you being facetious, or did the AP really call four nights in expensive hotels after Palin said “not often” a “glaring inaccuracy”?
Also was it AP or UPI? I thought I read UPI put 11 factcheckers on the book after they managed to get a copy pre-release from someplace? Was that incorrect?
5.grim says:
November 18, 2009 at 5:42 am
You know, the crazy part about all of this is that at one time, foreclosure was considered the solution, not the problem.
It still is, Grim. My prescription for clearing the backlog is to make foreclosure quicker and easier, not longer. Foreclosed homes sit too long deteriorating before a new user takes posession with the financial wherwithall and at a price level that supports the inteded OO housing model.
Damage, deterioration, neglect, vandalism, all just destroy value that can never be recaptured by the home l’owner, the bank, or the next buyer/user. If a lienholder could turn the house in 90 days from default at market price it would have more intrinsic value and nto suffer the continued decline in the greater market compared with the decrepit shells left 2-3 years after the fact.
Jamil
ground temp does reach a few hundred degrees at depths greater then 1 km in some areas and is estimated to be about 5000 deg C at the core/mantel boundary which on average is about 3000 km deep
Comrade, 63
There’s nothing “independent” and “nonpartisan” in a gov’t appointed panel. Bogus, untrue and malicious.
re: Palin not just 12 fat checkers, it is the whole blogosphere Media Matters started up a whole group to counter the Republican Press before the Mid-Term elections.
“Progressive Book Club and Media Matters Launch New Project to Separate Fact from Fiction”
They call it Right Wing Book Watch.
http://mediamatters.org/topic/bookwatch/
55.Orion says:
November 18, 2009 at 9:46 am
OT-Health Issue
Yesterday some panel recommended that women ought to start getting mammograms at age 50, instead of the current 40. The panel suggested it is not “cost effective” to have it at 40. The fcking bastards!!!! One step forward, two steps back. Who the fck are they to put a price tag on our health!!!
You also never heard much about Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT) being the leading cause of Estrogen Sensitive Breast Cancer. The Medical profession also needs to stop causing the disease.
ground temp does reach a few hundred degrees at depths greater then 1 km
It can get to a few thousand degrees right at the surface.
68 Kettle:
But our Nobelist Scientist-in-Chief lectures that it is millions of degrees just few kilometers below the surface. But anyway, his other facts are true/sarc
[70] sean,
Well, it makes sense in a sense. In nearly every banana republic revolution and counterrevolution I read about during the 60’s to early 90’s, the primary early target wasn’t necessarily the opposition’s base of military strength. . . .
It was the media.
Stu, for the last time, please stop interrupting our politically focused world view analysis of asian diplomacy and piracy with your distracting overemphasis on housing. gawddd! if you want to talk housing 24/7 you should go find a housing blog.
On a side note, can anyone attempt to interpret this startling metric burried at the bottom of the news release?…. ‘while starts of apartments and condos have plunged 78.1%’!!!!!!!!
[69] orion,
Careful there. Such antiparty thinking will be grounds for re-education!
comrade:
AP assigned 11 factcheckers to found errors and inaccuracies in Palin’s book. (On unrelated news: AP is laying off people..costs too high).
It found out four major inaccuracies that it promoted. One was that “not often” was inaccurate statement, as she spent 4 nights in expensive hotel during the campaign. George Soros’s MediaMatters naturally agrees to AP analysis.
Thank god AP did not carry out the research with only 10 factcheckers.
#62 the NYT ran a very matter-of-fact story, and continually emphasized how this panel, which is gov. appointed, was “independent” and “nonpartisan.”
Nom, the NYT currently has a front page article on doctors who don’t agree with said screening advice.
I have no problems with bashing the NYT, but it takes a bit of time to gather and write responses that aren’t completely off the cuff.
“if we keep on adding to the debt, at some point, people could lose confidence in the U.S. economy in a way that could actually lead to a double-dip recession.”
“So why are you doing it?”
Confused, He doesnt actually believe that. just laying the foundation to bring home the troops.
Stimulus II
Give households money to pay for weatherization projects, “cash for caulkers.” Rahm Emanuel, President Obama’s chief of staff, told me, “It’s one of the top things he’s looking at.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/18/business/economy/18leonhardt.html?_r=2
plume (22)-
Instead of attending a lavish AC conference, all those people should be put in lockup for three days…at their own expense.
Fried bologna sandwiches for everyone!
live testimonony of Eric Holder now..
‘We mourn the tragic deaths of our brave men and women at Ft. Hood, including Major Hasan’
that pathetic, lying Mr Perjury does not even remember that Hasan is alive. We are in good hands.
Orion, that report on the mammograms is outrageous. Breast Cancer mortality will go through the roof. Once you stop screening mammograms at 40, BRCA gene testing will stop too along with prophylactic masectomies.
Looks like eugenics in the real form. Breast cancer is being politicized. Looks like those concentration camp posters against Obamacare werent too far off.
83: death panels?
Jamil,
Is this you?
http://tinyurl.com/jamil-lives
Sarah Palin is a sideshow clown and a diversion.
I will not give her a penny or one minute of my attention.
86 Schump,
hear, hear.
sl
the discussion here on globalisation and manufacturing, free trade, unemployment and contract workers is at the heart of our structural shift - and obviously directly impacts housing and our living standard too. I could read posts about this subject all day long.
I’d like to add technological advances to complicate the subject because that is also taking jobs away just as fast.
Subway attendants have been replaced by convenient machines. Same with the self check out at the grocer and EZ Pass. These arent awesome jobs i agree but just look turbo tax is taking small skilled jobs from accountants and also legalzoom taking simple jobs from attorneys.
So not only are we now being forced to compete with a starving 3rd world workers with phds who would expose themselves to on-the-job-toxic chemicals for 12 hour days to collect salary of $2 per hour with no benefits, which they save 50% and have zero bad habits. And if our children can still get a job in this situation you then have to worry about a computer replacing your job.
I expect this to continue but to what degree?
moose (67)-
Sorry, your ideas make too much sense.
Here’s my little slice of recent reality: after watching a client successfully advance his short sale approval by threatenting to cut off his heat and let his pipes burst this Winter, I proceeded to make the same threat to several other lenders I’m having a hard time dealing with.
Natch, four of the five lenders I threatened don’t care whether the houses securing the loans stand or fall.
They already know how this is going to end. The only unknown is how long they can delay the inevitable.
The whole mammogram timing strikes me a political ploy to get women all in an uproar to call Harry Reid and scream at him to push the Heath Care Bill through the Senate.
While they are at it they should mandate yearly Full Body CT Scans incuding a Heart Scan, Lung Scan, Body Scan for Cancer , Bone Density Scan, Virtual Colonoscopy and EB Angiography for everyone over 30 years old.
Everyone deserves a nice 10 mSv dose of radiation yearly.
James David Manning, the controversial pastor of the Atlah Missionary Church in Harlem, says Homeland Security visited him on November 16, 2009, after he placed a video post on his website entitled “Tea Party Please Go Birth Certificate Viral.” Manning is a fierce critic of Obama. He claims there will be a backlash against Obama resulting in riots.
Manning says in the video here that he expects to be arrested in the next few days and charged with making a threat against the president.
Unless the Republicans can trot out someone better, we’re looking at a 2nd term for O’bama. I know it’s early but there’s got to be someone better than Sarah.
I would have bet the farm that Bill Clinton was a one-termer….until the Republicans sent up Bob Dole.
I wont vote for Sarah Palin. Michelle Bachman or Ron Paul, however, are a different story.
#88 - Veto - Kurt Vonnegut’s first novel, Player Piano, is about this very subject. He uses fiction to explore the topic.
Worth the read.
Jamil told me he was impressed with SP and that the GOP did an excellent job in vetting her out.
Ever since then, I weigh his view on things about as highly as an @ss pimple.
And you think Obama is bad without a teleprompter? SP would make Helen Keller sound like Shakespeare.
bye (93)-
I liked Ron Paul in Bruno.
Hilarious.
Stu (95)-
I want Jamil to be the first case when the death panels are convened.
re #91 - he is a wacko ex-con. Find yourself another martyr.
75/Veto:
‘while starts of apartments and condos have plunged 78.1%’!!!!!!!!
Sure, all the regional/local banks stopped lending money for those kinds of projects about the middle of last year (late August roughly). That’s not going to come back for a while.
Schumpy,
“I want Jamil to be the first case when the death panels are convened.”
I agree and volunteer to serve on this death panel.
Sh1t, I’ll even be a conductor on the cattle cars.
Nom,
Is this the wine you’re looking for?
http://www.wine-searcher.com/find/darting+riesling/2006/usa
67: Speedier foreclosures would expose the sham that banks and gvt. are perpetrating re: carrying value, flood the market within which there is little demand and expedite the negative feedback loop. Hey, maybe you’ve got something there.
95 Stu: Compared to Biden or Obama, Palin has actually done something in her life.
Had Palin plagiarized her college essays and major speeches, lecture incorrectly about the Constitution in VP debate (like Biden), stated that US has 57 states, being proud of her muslim religion (like Obama) we would never hear the end of it. It is unfortunate that State Media can fool so many people (well, Obambi’s poll numbers are now lowest in history so eventually the fools get the picture despite State Media).
#88
If you have watched documentaries on North Korea you will see traffic police directing traffic even though there are no cars. Brainwashing has amazing powers.
Tosh, i’ll check it out thanks.
Sean, just because a country isnt an ultra-capitalistic corporocracy, doesnt mean society cant be good. Look at Germany, they mandate Union Officials a place on corporate boards. In my opinion we need more of this or else get ready for 99% of the wealth to be in the hands of 1% of the population and then the rest of the country looks like ethiopia.
Did the honeymoon in italy and the wife’s hair dryer broke so we go to the local shop (no cvs or walmart) and my wife looks at all the options and naturally picks the maost expensive one - because it must be the best. The store owner starts arguing with her telling he that one is an overpriced pos and convinces her to get the middle of the road hair dryer instead, saving us a good 40-50 euros. My wife and i look at eachother like we are in twilight zone. im sure this mentality isnt doing wonders for the store’s bottom line but it was really refreshing.
just my opnion but i think we need more of this in america and i also think we used to have it but we lost it.
[78] tosh
The article I referred to was yesterday (or the day before, I forget. All a blur this month), not today. And the other media outlets managed to get those interviews, why not NYT?
Nice that they are covering the other side of the issue as it is important, but why so late to the party?
#2 - The firms, which together have taken more than $110 billion in capital infusions from the Treasury, stepped up their lending for apartment buildings as the commercial real-estate market peaked, and they are now facing rapidly rising loan losses.
You know, I meant to post about this earlier but got distracted.
Why is Fannie buying apt bldgs and commerical real estate?
I should clarify, I know why they’re doing it; but what is the justification for an agency who’s purpose is “making homes affordable”* for buying commerical RE?
* I suppose it is making J Dimon’s home affordable to him…
We will be getting 4% or less 30 year mortgages it seems.
“Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said policy makers may not start to raise rates until early 2012 while facing a “too low for two long” argument that may “weigh heavily” on the central bank. …”
0% rates for a long time, can’t wait till the banks are given the go ahead to lend lend lend, gonna be an even bigger bubble.
103 Brooklyn
That’s the wine I’ve been looking for! Thank you!!!!!
Link to comment from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6b235jJZM_g&pos=1
And I will add in my signature saying deflation my ass.
103 Brooklyn
Oops close but that’s not it.
State Media, Acorn, State Media, Acorn, blah, blah, blah.
Give it a rest for one minute dude. I’m sure Joseph Goebels thought he was right as well.
I’m not going to open up this debate again. One need simply to look at the transcript of this interview. You can combine all of the blunders made by every Democrat in the past 100 years and it pales in comparison to this.
Can’t blame this one on the State Media can you?
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/24/eveningnews/main4476173.shtml
108 comrade: “Nice that they are covering the other side of the issue as it is important, but why so late to the party?”
“staff vacations” is the typically used excuse (by NYT public editor) when they failed or forgot to report something that does not look good for the Leader.
#108 - Nom - Nice that they are covering the other side of the issue as it is important, but why so late to the party?
Once again, not that I’m an idealogical supporter of the NYT, etc, but… getting responses from doctors and experts who have actually had time to review what the recommendations were, and consider them, takes time (and then you have to write the article). Unless you go with completely off-the-cuff responses.
114: Let’s have Rush L to conduct 4 hour interview with Biden and see the 1-hour summary on FoxNews ?
Biden got away with actual BS (e.g. about US constitution) in VP debate (of course, I understand that State Media does not understand Constitution).
Btw, US does not have 57 states.
relo (104)-
Will never happen.
You can also mark anything else that is reflective of free markets/common sense/sound policy in the “will never happen” column.
Jamil…
Not even close. My 4-year old could have answered those questions more professionally. Your hero chose a playmate to play running mate. To this day, you won’t admit it. Biden is no saint and frequently lies. Unfortunately, SP is just too plain stupid to even figure out how to.
And to think the GOP is gonna run her again? How do you like that your party is being run like Buick?
sean (110)-
Lend? Lend to whom?
“0% rates for a long time, can’t wait till the banks are given the go ahead to lend lend lend, gonna be an even bigger bubble.”
Only way left to make money is initiate a carry, lever it to infinity and trade your ass off.
Lending to individuals and growing businesses? That’s so 2000-late.
Got demand?
Current office deadpool:
-NASCAR
-Abe Vigoda
-Paul Volcker
Schumpter - no Lindsey Lohan?
#121 - All in on NASCAR, that’s just wish fulfillment on my part though.
Over under on the demise of Harley Davidson?
This will do wonders for NY/NJ economy..Luckily, this does not affect 95% of population.
House Democratic leaders are considering imposing a new tax on stock transactions to fund a jobs bill, leadership sources tell The Hill. Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Colo.) has been making the case for such a Wall Street tax, and House leaders have started paying attention as they look for a way to pay for the jobs bill, leadership sources said. The idea is attractive because it’s very small, likely 0.25 percent of each trade.
You can now go to ZH pretty much anytime and read something that will scare you so bad, you’ll crap your pants:
“The rally will come to an abrupt end when one of two things happens: i) the Fed gives an indication it wants investors to stop chasing risky assets (likely not for at least 5 years) and ii) the rest of the world realizes that America has no leverage whatsoever, with its crumbling economy, and its loose monetary policy which as prominent Chinese figures have already determined, is currently causing asset bubbles worldwide (yet which the Chairman is unable to see). Possibility ii has a much greater probability of occurring, yet if and when it does, will be dependent in great extent on the future of the dollar carry trade.
Nouriel Roubini has already pointed out the great danger posed by every single trader in the world being short the dollar. As we saw on Monday, one word out of place by Bernanke, and the reversal will be disastrous. Below we present the thoughts from Goldman Sachs, which, as expected, is much more sanguine about the impact and the participation in the carry trade. To Goldman, the dollar value is merely a function of the US economy’s weakness. Ironically, Goldman has been pumping up the strong economy story for much of H2, until recently when even 85 Broad has reversed its opinion. While Goldman’s observations are not surprising, the question emerges as to how the firm is positioned now to make the higher amount of money from a macro picture, as very few trade on company-specific alpha: courtesy of banks like Goldman, every asset class has become one big beta bucket.
If Goldman is wrong, which it likely is in this case, the impact would be rapid and dramatic: as Goldman itself notes: a 20% reversal which would come in either 3 months or 3 days. Let’s recall Goldman’s stance on oil last summer to see just how spectacularly wrong the world’s most riskless hedge fund can be in its “policy” guidelines.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-dollar-carry-trade-20-reversal-either-3-months-or-3-days
sean (122)-
No interest in her.
What kind of morons are contemplating running sarah palin, I don’t like the O man but if they ran her he would get my vote even though he is a lying sack of sh*t. Please tell me the GOP isn’t that dumb, can’t this country do better for president. The government is not a reality tv show, Obama is like a contestant from the apprentice and palin might as well be on American idol. We are going the way of the roman empire.
All I know is it is unfortunate I didn’t get a chance at the silverdome it would have been perfect for feeding people to the lions or having gladiators fight to the death. Maybe when the Islanders move, I can buy nassau coliseum and turn it into a real coliseum, well I guess it is almost as old as the original.
Jamil, you are really way to tedious, Palin and Biden could have battle of the idots, both are dolts end of story. As for O he is a party puppet, I hate him. The scary thing about McCain, 5 years in a vietnamese prison camp couldn’t break the guy, but the GOP had him singing like a canary in short time. Very scary indeed.
As we’ve learned in my office over the past eight years, don’t go against Abe Vigoda.
That man has staying power.
Spotted new nickname for Timmay:
“Eraserhead”
As of now, I’m switching to it.
#13,
“They took er jobs.”
From The San Francisco Jewish Film Festival
JAI
http://www.youtube.com/user/SFJewishFilmFestival#p/a
Check out link, nice charts if you are a renter.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/173904-bounce-crackle-and-pop-seven-u-s-metro-housing-markets-fall-below-march-lows
Bounce, Crackle and Pop: Seven U.S. Metro Housing Markets Fall Below March Lows
The extra-seasonal, “cash for first time home debtors” fueled housing price bounce having reached its peak in most markets in mid-summer now appears to be completely reverting for some.
The Radar Logic home price data now indicates that there are seven regional markets that have now dropped below their March lows.
This presents an unequivocal bump in the road of the supposed “V” shaped economic recovery as a significant “housing recovery” disappointment shapes up over the next few months.
The following rollup (click for larger) shows the regions that have now completely reverted from the summer peak to break the prior lows seen in March… some even dropping to series lows, resting at levels not seen since the late 1990s.
Note that I added “value” loss for homes purchased at the summer peak and costing either $200K, $300K, $400K and $500K… all losses are well in excess of the senseless $8000 government carrot tax “credit”.
And now for the other side of the trade.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/174041-south-california-home-sales-let-the-good-times-roll
South California Home Sales: Let the Good Times Roll
News: Southland home sales up; median levels off.
The October 2009 sales report for Southern California is all good news. The number of sales has now accomplished 16 straight months of year-over-year increases. The percentage of sale of foreclosure properties is dropping, allowing the median sale prices to increase. The median price per square foot has increased for 6 straight months.
Of particular interest, two counties, Orange and San Diego now have year-over-year median price gains. The average price on Orange county for October was almost 4% greater than in October 2008!
I would put Rex Ryan on there….heart attack…
Schumpeter says:
November 18, 2009 at 11:18 am
Current office deadpool:
-NASCAR
-Abe Vigoda
-Paul Volcker
Mike, thats good news. cant speak for any of those cities but i sense the next leg down is definately upon us.
CS Metro release at end of month will no doubt commence the next leg down or i will never ever utter a guess about RE again in my whole life.
Question about the dead pool.
Is Amy Winehouse dead yet?
Chinese diners eat live fish in YouTube video
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/6595481/Chinese-diners-eat-live-fish-in-YouTube-video.html
Baristanet:
Selling Sucked But Renting’s Grand
http://www.baristanet.com/realestate/2009/11/selling_sucked_but_rentings_gr.php#more
“After being burned in the housing market, we plan on renting for a few more years. Where are the taxes headed in Montclair? Is a house with $25,000 per year in taxes going to go up to $35,000 in the next few years? Is the worst of the housing crisis over, or is there a second leg down, which I suspect? Regardless, I don’t see house prices sky-rocketing any time soon, and there’s no urgency to jump in and own right away.”
‘If you don’t read the newspaper you are uninformed, if you do read the newspaper you are misinformed.’
-Mark Twain
#13 prior thread:
bye, bye america:
if you are comparing me to an intelligence officer: thank you. I rather be GRU as opposed to KGB.
But, I can’t assume that you were actually being nice.. . can I?
Or am I one of those leftists who will be up agaisnt the wall and shot after “normalization”?
Clot,
Time Net Show 18-49 Rating 18-49 Share Viewers Live+SD (million)
7:00 CBS NFL Overrun 7.5 23 22.679
ABC NASCAR: Pepsi 500 2.5 8 8.913
NBC Football Night In America 1.8 5 5.375
FOX Brothers 1.1 3 2.949
I’ve been going to the NASCAR Vegas race for 7 years now and see the attendance rise from 100k to over 160k (I think it was lower this year). But take a look at the scoreboard and consider that you only have so many drivers and employees that nine million people are watching. I wouldn’t pick NASCAR in your dead pool. Does it beat live football? No, but it does beat the post-game shows and still has an auidience when competing directly against the NFL.
[139] confused,
Just to add to that, Tosh pointed out new article in NYT. I went to look at it, and found two new articles. Good coverage about the uncertainty raised, and differing opinions.
But I went back to the original article, and found that it looked different. At the bottom, it noted a correction, but no substantive changes, but it is clearly longer, and (IMO) reads differently.
Only a notation that a “version of this article” appeared previously.
Not suggesting that there should be a way of blacklining when they do that, but it does make it hard to backcheck online.
Anyway, not much to interest me as I ain’t getting mammograms anyway.
just heard about a mortgage reduction that may or may not blow your mind (swear this is true). having worked the bank (not saying which one) for 5 months …
- house is in one of the ‘bad’ situation states
- owner DID put down 20% when bought
- mortgage currently $2k per month (got 30 yr fixed)
- had two health issues (hospitalized twice; both major surgeries documented)
- for the next 5 months, the mortgage has been cut to $1k.
- IF all 5 months worth of payments are made, the new mortgage will be … $800 a month.
I will see the documents next week and update then. i dont know if there are any stipulations … other than the fact that the owner CANNOT sell their house for 5 years.
Ambac bonds rocking the house today, now that is a scary house.
40.000 500 11/18/2009 11:48:00 —
34.888 200 11/18/2009 11:47:55 —
36.000 155 11/18/2009 11:34:00 —
36.000 155 11/18/2009 11:29:00 —
35.000 100 11/18/2009 11:18:26 —
36.100 25 11/18/2009 10:27:11 —
36.000 25 11/18/2009 10:20:00 —
31.000 100 11/18/2009 10:08:02 —
33.100 130 11/18/2009 09:51:31 —
33.000 50 11/18/2009 09:49:56 —
31.000 20 11/18/2009 09:46:12 —
30.000 19 11/18/2009 08:54:00 —
30.000 9 11/18/2009 08:54:00 —
30.000 10 11/18/2009 08:53:58 —
29.000 — 11/17/2009 05:15:01 —
29.000 20 11/17/2009 04:22:36
Tax News of the Day:
House Ways and Means is considering 1 year extension of current estate tax laws.
Currently, estate tax goes away entirely in 2010, then reverts to pre-tax cut levels in 2011 (55% tax, 1MM exclusion).
This suggests that the dems aren’t interested in revisiting what happens in 2011, and may be content to let the estate tax return to the rates of the bad old days.
Not bad for us though—-that should spur all kinds of trust and estate planning work.
Thanks Charlie.
Not suggesting that there should be a way of blacklining when they do that, but it does make it hard to backcheck online.
Good point, sooner or later this will probably be an issue. If you’re reading the online version of a story you can basically watch it develop over the course of a morning as bits are added, refined etc. Sometimes the differences are noticable, sometimes not. It would be nice to think that at least the news orginizations are keeping journaled copies of their stories. I wouldn’t count on it though.
http://www.internetmammogram.net is probably doing a brisk business given all the recent news.
Tosh,
I came across a little browser addon app that ccould automatically archive any news story you directed it to at the frequency of your choice and save it to your harddrive.
Don’t remeber the name of it though
RE: “Mortgage delinquencies rose to a new high”
Makes for a fab chart….
http://www.circlingvulture.com
Qwerty [148],
Are you sure that’s not the fed’s balance sheet?
#145 Got Balls.
It shuts down the scenario, were people will make care decisions based on tax consequences. Some people will throw everything they can health care wise up to Jan 1st 2010 to keep an ailing parent alive. They will then probably, stop just short of pushing the wheelchair off a cliff to get them to “shuffle off their mortal coil” by Dec 31st 2010.
Has anyone seen any reports on how the Chinese reacted to the president traveling to China without the First Lady? Also, why did she not go? It is not like childcare or getting time off from work is a problem.
Stu 138 - They bought that house for $642,400 in May 2006. They sold it for $550k this year.
As far as funding healthcare, why not tax products and behavior that contribute to high costs?
Heavy cream? $1tax per pt.
Cake with buttercream frosting, $1 tax per standard slice.
10% above a certain body fat figure, extra tax.
Repeated speading tickets, ditto.
Etc.
Gator,
Boy did they get lucky!
Gator,
What is a hundred grand compared to the pride of owning a home in such a town?
[150] pbs
Well, that’s pretty freakin’ macabre.
And I thought it was to snare revenue from estates in 2010.
BTW, this doesn’t eliminate the motivation you discuss at the back end. There is still a decent difference in tax treatment between 12/31/10 and 1/1/11.
“why not tax products and behavior that contribute to high costs?”
Shore,
Don’t touch Guinness.
why not tax products and behavior that contribute to high costs?”
Heavy cream? $1tax per pt.
Shore, the assumption is flawed.
if Heavy Cream is so fattening then why are the french so skinny?
The problem is not the rich foods themselves but the mass consumption of a society who needs it all now. The more the better. Excess is our middle name, with everything!
Plus all the chemicals and additives the large food companies put in our food is horrendous. They should tax that if they want people to be healthier.
But most of the bad foods ie deserts, meats, oils and butters that get the blame… are not the problem especially if it were fresh and not prepared with the intention of having a 4 month shelf life.
Don’t touch my Knob Creek, either.
I’ll need to drink a lot of it before I whack my Mom in 2010 to get the best tax treatment. :)
What’s the best method? CO, pillow/face or well-disguised OD?
Every time I go to France, I eat like crazy and lose weight.
Problem is, we eat starchy, no-nutritional-value garbage in the US.
So tax BHA, BHT, Yellow 6, Red 13, chicken fried steak, yadda, yadda. We eat virtually no such foods. We won’t even microwave anything in plastic.
Clot
Its disgusting how much of the average persons diet is grain.
How do you fatten feed lot cattle? Seems we have out ourselves on the same diet.
“Every time I go to France, I eat like crazy and lose weight.”
I experienced the same thing in Spain and Italy too where i was practically drinking the olive oil and wine from the bottle.
SHore,
easier. remove the tarriff on foriegn sugar and you will drive corn HFCS out of the market. Its a nasty corn byproduct that is artificially made econoically attractive by putting tarrifs on cane sugar. Its a very large, indirect “Big AG” subsidy.
Good luck finding foods without HFCS if you eat the standard american diet.
Tax HFCS at the source and watch the obesity rates drop. If they went back to cane sugar, there wouldn’t be quite the issue.
vodka (162)-
Feeding grain to an animal with four stomachs does nothing but create illness. A lot of people think foodborne diseases found in meat are a direct result of grain-feeding.
Ruminants shouldn’t eat grain; grass-feeding is the way to go.
Don’t you mess with my consumption of grain. Without it, I got no Knob Creek or Everclear (my new “bargain” holiday potation).
Veto[163],
You may be getting a little heavy, the next couple of weeks. You may want, at that time, to trim down or hedge.
You literally cant find and apple in the supermarket that is not completely coated in a thin layer of plastic preserve wrap of pure chemicals.
Unless you go over to the organic bin of rotten brown apples that cost 8x the amount.
Why are we the only country with this problem?
Qwerty,
Charts like that, unemployment & foreclosures surging, employers leaving the state. How long can NJ real estate prices continue to outperform the rest of the country’s? The towns I’m looking at, sellers think that 10% below peak is practically giving away their house.
But what will be the catalyst for real estate falling another 10% next year in NJ? Rising mortgage rates?
I’m looking in the ~$800k to $1mn range, and those houses seem to be playing their own game. Thinly traded, and so far forced supply is low. Can anyone opine whether more motivated sales are likely to start hitting the market in 2010?
Will we have the death panels in place in time to help me with my estate tax “problem”?
Keep repeating to self, “she’s my Mom, she’s not a tax problem…”
I AM joking.
I really should drink more Everclear. I feel myself getting smarter.
“Can anyone opine whether more motivated sales are likely to start hitting the market in 2010?”
Absolutely. Write after Gator and I buy our next home in Glen Ridge, you should expect to see property values in that price range plummet once again.
Right not write. Oy vey!
Re: Wall Street Welfare Queens
Hypothetical: In 2004 “Master of the Universe” GS (though vaious and subdry intermediatires) loans out a half mil. to J6P on an IO-ARM with a 5 year fixed period of 6%, due to recast and reset this year. They’ve collected $150k in interest already at $2,500/mo., and they are still owed $500k principal.
J6P gets laid off, or simply can’t afford the fully amortizing payment and defaults on the loan.
Does anyone still beleive that it takes $500k to make GS whole? That may have been what they were entitled to under the terms of the contract, but that loan agreement is in default, and not binding on anyone except the parties who agreed to it.
If I’m in a position to “bail out” GS because they are “systemically important” (TBTF) - I give them $350k and say have a nice day. What would anybody have considered paying them off at anything close to par? What they called ‘fees’ or ‘earned interest’ is now officially “that part of your money you already got back”.
#169 Stu
With 1MM threshold, you get upgraded to a Star Chamber.
west (170)-
Yes.
“Can anyone opine whether more motivated sales are likely to start hitting the market in 2010?”
Toll Brothers CEO:FHA-Backed Lending Is a ‘Train Wreck,’
The Federal Housing Authority, which insures home purchases with as little as 3.5 percent down payments, may create another crisis in the lending industry, Toll Brothers Inc. Chief Executive Officer Robert Toll said.
“Yesterday’s subprime is today’s FHA,” Toll said today at a New York conference for builders sponsored by UBS AG. “It’s a definite train wreck and the flag will go up in the next couple of months: Bail us out. Give us more money.” Toll Brothers is largest U.S. luxury homes builder..,
The FHA’s insurance reserve ratio fell to 0.53 percent, the lowest level in history, and more steps are needed to shore up the agency that guarantees one of every five single family loans, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan said Nov. 12. The FHA is required by Congress to maintain a loan reserve ratio of at least 2 percent to protect the insurance fund from default.
The FHA said 456,000 of its loans, or 8.2 percent, were in default as of September. That was up from 5.6 percent in September 2008.
Record Defaults
The default rate for loans tracked by the Mortgage Bankers Association was a record 9.24 percent for the three months through June, the most recent period for which data is available. That was up from 6.41 percent a year earlier.
Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan said on Nov. 12 that “additional actions” will be needed to shore up the agency.
FHA loans accounted for about 8 percent of the mortgages Toll Brothers closed in the past quarter, Robert Toll said. About 80 percent of the company’s financing is loans guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, he said. Those government- supported agencies require larger down payments and better credit than loans insured by the FHA.
Toll Brothers has seen strong sales of its urban high-rise developments in New York City, Jersey City and Philadelphia, Toll said.
“We started doing over $1 million product even in Hoboken and Jersey City,” he said. “We expect to expand to Washington, D.C., and perhaps some other strong markets.”
Horsham, Pennsylvania-based Toll Brothers fel1 10 cents to $20.73 at 1:29 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares are down 2.8 percent this year through yesterday.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arqAG5n7wEVw&pos=3
Bob Toll is a self-serving asshole.
He’s one of the biggest welfare queens of all. No right to do anything but STFU.
BC will do thanks.
[175]…
Actually, $350k is just where my thought process begins. Then I start to consider a risk premium for being so stupid with other people’s money.
“It’s a definite train wreck and the flag will go up in the next couple of months: Bail us out. Give us more money.”
From # 178,
Excuse me Bob? Please explain the tax credits created for you and those that were just as responsible, for this bust, as subprime? Train wreck? Take a look in the mirror.
so lemme get this straight. Here we are in nov 2009 and suddenly global markets/nafta/illegal workers/wage depreciation has struck a cord? seriously? This train left the station in 1992 and up until yesterday on this blog and other msg boards that lean right, it was go-go-go with illegals, boo boo boo to unions yeah yeah yeah to globalization, boo bo boo to protectionism.
Its all fun and games till somebody gets hurt, eh?
160- I found that in Europe walking 1/2 hour just to get to the market was nothing. And, yes most of the people I saw were not overweight, unlike here in the U.S. Also, I noticed that they don’t snack like we do here. I think they probably also eat more slowly as they are not rushing around like crazy people with too many activities after work.
“up until yesterday on this blog it was go illegals, boo to unions yeah to globalization, boo to protectionism.”
Barbara, We’re not talking about your pimple faced kid getting his summer lawn mowing/bus boy job taken from him.
the economy is much different since the great recession plunged us into eternal darkness.
#184 - They also don’t hoard food the way we do in the U.S. They buy food, fresh, right before preparing it.
As opposed to the US where we have huge refrigerators and freezers (often with a dedicated deep freezer) holding hundreds of pounds of prepared and preservative heavy foods.
My parents do that; huge fridge with a deep freezer out in the garage. Neither of them is large at all, but I have no idea what the two of them need so much food space for.
For whom does the Bob Toll?
He tolls for he.
“grain. How do you fatten feed lot cattle?”
Ket,
I think whole grain is generally healthy and not the problem.
The problem i see is that we gorge ourselves with as much much bleached flour infused with partially hydrogenated trans fats as we can get our pie holes around and then wash down with huge amounts of soft drinks laced with benzyne and phosphoric acids.
Personally i have a lot of pasta and cereal and grains in my diet, but in small portions so i try not to walk away from a meal feeling like the pilsbury dough man. Plus if you exersize you can significantly multiply the input of grain and carbs since it burns so quickly.
I think the cattle get grain since its so cheap. Meat would likely beef up the animals more but thats expensive to throw chicken and steaks at them.
Veto & Ket the Cattle only live about 3-4 months in a feed lot, where they quickly gain about 400 lbs in a very short time.
It takes 4-5 years to fatten up a cow on grass to the same effect.
Motley Fool Headline:
“The Good, the Bad, and the Dollar”
Paulson & Co’s John Paulson is looking to take even a bigger position in gold. John Paulson is set to launch a new fund after the new year focused entirely on gold.
John Paulson will be investing $250 million of his own money into the new fund
Another Obama nominee runs into tax problems….Obama choice for Treasury post becomes fifth nominee to run into tax problems
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Another-Obama-nominee-runs-apf-4220539332.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=
Here we are in nov 2009 and suddenly global markets/nafta/illegal workers/wage depreciation has struck a cord?
Barbara,
Actually I have been discussing this, with the exception of the illegals, since late 2005. Go check the archives.
Veto (188) - cattle are herbivores - the question is grass fed or grain-fed.
Vic [191],
He was the largest shareholder of GLD. Subsequently, he shied away, from the paper, and took delivery.
Presently, millions are digging deep in their closets/drawers to sell any gold that is available. Why not, gold can’t go much higher than 1K and it’s in a bubble. I guess John Q is on the cutting edge, thereby sticking it to Paulson?
Veto
There is no silver bullet to american fatties short of our society giving up on gluttony (HA!).
Its is scary to look at how many teens and young adolescents are fat. That is what disturbers me. These kids still ave metabolisms through the roof and have no excuse for being fat. (Hooray for Muffin Tops!!!!)
[176] county,
“With 1MM threshold, you get upgraded to a Star Chamber.”
The Star Chamber will be the High Court in my geniocratic duchy!
Barb,
it has been a ongoing debate here, albiet a side one for a few years.
BC Bob,
I’m trying to reach you… I sent an email to grim to forward my email to you.
sl
OMAMA to US Students…Learn chinese and study in China…Straight out of teh playbook of jim Rogers and make momey
Obama Pledges to Send 100,000 Students to China in the Next 4 Years
During his trip to China this week, President Obama pledged to send 100,000 students to China over the next four years. How he plans to do that, though, remains to be determined.Contacted today, a State Department spokesman explained the initiative by saying that “China will have a much more important voice in world affairs in the coming years, and we need more Americans who can speak the language, who understand China, and who can do business more effectively with the Chinese.” He did not have any information on how the program would be structured or which agency
lost,
you’ve got mail.
sl
Sean,
the kettle family eats mostly free range bison and Scottish highland cattle when it comes to red meat.
taste better and better for you. In bulk its not much more expensive either.
SL,
Gotcha.
Still Looking,
I just forwarded you e-mail address to BC
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — The state of California on Wednesday estimated it will face a budget shortfall of $20.7 billion between now and the time the legislature enacts its 2010-2011 budget plan. The gap consists of a $6.3 billion projected deficit for the 2009-2010 fiscal year and a $14.4 billion gap in 2010-2011, according to a report from the California legislative analyst’s office. California, hurt by a steep drop in income tax revenues and unable to make controversial cuts to spending, resorted to passing out IOUs to its vendors this summer. In September it sold $8.8 billion in short-term debt to help bridge its existing budget gap.
Thsi means more IOU’s on the way next year.
“cattle are herbivores - the question is grass fed or grain-fed.”
afe, Please.
They mix chicken feces into cattle feed. You really dont think they can do the same with meat?
“Farmers feed 1 million to 2 million tons of poultry litter to their cattle annually, according to FDA estimates. Using the litter - which includes feces, spilled chicken feed, feathers and poultry farm detritus — increases the risk of cows becoming infected with bovine spongiform encephalopathy, or mad cow disease”
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-feed31-2009oct31,0,1227725.story
thanks, ket! :)
sl
RE: “Its is scary to look at how many teens and young adolescents are fat”
Observe how many are smokers, too.
Did anybody see Canada’s October housing stats?
Prices +21% compared to October 2008. Record sales volume.
#206 - ewww.
[209] lurkerd
I suspect if you looked deeply into the data, you’d see an uptick in buyers from the lower 48.
Der Leader pledges to ship US citizens to China? Is this how we are going pay our debt?
“Obama Pledges to Send 100,000 Students to China in the Next 4 Years”
“Did anybody see Canada’s October housing stats?”
[209],
lurkerd, aka?
Just talked to a commercial real estate broker in NY. He just subleased some BAC space for $35. BAC paid $75. In addition to this, he stated that midtown leases are going for 40% off peak. How can this happen in NYC? Don’t the talented/aggressive gravitate here? What do your excel charts indicate?
[90] sean
I hadn’t thought of that, but the first thing that crossed my mind was what NYT reported’
“In comments posted on nytimes.com in response to an article about the new guidelines, many women said they viewed them in the context of the debate on health care, and feared that cost containment was somehow leading the scientific charge.
“I cannot help but think that this decision has less to do with protecting a woman’s health and more to do with the financial advantages gained through less insurance coverage,” one woman posted under the handle JAG.”
Now, that begs the question of who benefits and why. I’ll let the assembled do that as I have to work now.
#153 Shore Guy
As far as funding healthcare, why not tax products and behavior that contribute to high costs?
Bingo. Why not just have all employees pay a 5% income tax, with employer matching, capped at 6k max a year, tax all junk and fast food and bad behaviors. Use the money so all US citizens have an HMO/ PPO plan. If you want a better plan, you can pay for a better plan, like the same way you can get an umbrella plan on top of your home owner’s insurance.
Of course Jamil, you would not have access to this website, which is my real motive in sending you over. You would also get a ‘real’ taste of state controlled media. Utopia I’m telling ya. Hop on board the next ship before the opportunity ends when SP wins the presidency in 2012.
Record sales volume.
Lukerd, dont follow canada but didnt similar happen in California when prices crashed 50%?
The sales volume is just one small piece of the story.
Would be nice to know the price performance and percent of distressed sales that contributed to the volume. If half of that volume was bidding wars, id be very impressed and surprised.
but if half the volume was foreclosure auctions i would totally dismiss the sales volume uptick altogether.
216: We will then have the rise of the “fatty” lobby which will spend mass sums “proving” that the supersize meals are actually good for you and therefore don’t belong on the list of taxable items.
Or SAS, is this already happening?
Has anybody else received the solicitation in the mail for the Visa Black Card ???
Comes in a black envelope with fancy graphics. The card is made of carbon, not plastic. Here’s the kicker -
Annual Fee…..hold on to your hats…..$495.
My sides still hurt from laughing !!
218: Prices +21% compared to October 2008
“tax all junk and fast food”
I would normally agree with this general concept in a perfect world but like Relo just posted, the trouble is agreeing on what is bad and what is junk.
All of the sudden we will all be forced to eat tofu blocks with no salt or fat. But coincidentally nabisco and McDonalds get the contracts to mass produce such garbage, even though its got more chemicals per square inch than carteret nj.
Relo, 222, Thanks, wow I didnt see that PRICES were up. thats crazy.
[220] fiddy
Yeah, I got a good chuckle out of that one myself. That also got a trademark “WHAT?” out of my wife.
The NJ Real Estate Meat, China, and Boobs Report . . . .
And here is (thank God) the last word on the last subject.
“Washington (CNN) — A federal advisory board’s recommendation that women in their 40s should avoid routine mammograms is not government policy and has caused “a great deal of confusion,” Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said Wednesday. . . .
Though insurance companies look to that panel for guidance on which preventive care practices they should cover, Sebelius said the doctors and scientists on the task force “do not set federal policy and they don’t determine what services are covered by the federal government”
“The task force has presented some new evidence for consideration, but our policies remain unchanged,” she said. “Indeed, I would be very surprised if any private insurance company changed its mammography coverage decisions as a result of this action. . . .”
Glad that’s settled.
220 - I got it a few months ago (I think I got one a couple years ago too). Sad thing is that annual fee will be competitive with standard cards if they keep up their rate hikes.
There’s been a lot of discussion in science journals recently that most of the observed increase in breast cancer rates (and steady mortality per capita) is mammographies revealing non-dangerous cancers that are properly treated and eliminated. Without mammographies (= essentially, overdiagnosis)these extremely slow-growing cancers would simply persists for dozens of years till the patient dies from something else. Dangerous cancers OTOH quickly reveal themselves even without mammographies; besides, they grow so quickly that a year or two interval between the screeings is an eternity allowing them to develop metasthases. Mammograms blunt the awareness of the women and objectively reduce the probablity of them finding a tumor themselves - which frequently is a key signal about the fast growing tumor. BTW, same overdiagnosis issue relates to the prostate cancer being found in tons more men than 50 years ago - and again, “highly successful” treatments without much decrease in mortality per capita. Both result in lots of radiation exposure (br from x-rays, prostate from treatments).
Can white people use it?
Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:
November 18, 2009 at 4:20 pm
Has anybody else received the solicitation in the mail for the Visa
Black Card ???
Comes in a black envelope with fancy graphics. The card is made of carbon, not plastic. Here’s the kicker -
Annual Fee…..hold on to your hats…..$495.
My sides still hurt from laughing !!
Just get the no annual fee citi black diamond card. Impresses the same people.
I have a Starbucks black card, can I hang out too?
I have more debt than all of you put together and the card to prove it.
veto - so in your opinion is the problem that cattle are fed chicken sh*t, grain or both? In your initial comment were you suggesting that if farmers fed their cattle meat rather than feces the animals and subsequently humans who ate them would be healthier? Well, duh.
although wouldn’t mad cow disease still be an issue?
I don’t pay no stinkin’ annual fee. And I pay the balance in full each month. The credit card companies must hate me….I haven’t paid any interest in 20 years.
I have four good cards with billing cycle dates 1 week apart. If I am charging a big ticket item….I use the card where the end of the billing cycle has just past. I won’t get the bill for a month, and I have a 25 day grace period to pay it.
Like getting an interest-free loan for 7 weeks.
I have more debt than all of you put together and the card to prove it.
Young Veto,
I have at least 10X the amount of debt that you have. Although I don’t have a revolving CC balance.
I do however, carry the good old American Xpress Black card cause it makes me feel like a whale.
You should seen the waitress face at Angelo & Maxies when I handed her the card before dinner and told her that I wanted to make sure I pick up this check. She looked and me with the face that said “Let me know if you want me to blow you sir”.
I heard her whisper to another waitetress “check this out(showing her the card) he smells like money and it’s sooo sexy”
As far as funding healthcare, why not tax products and behavior that contribute to high costs? Third leading cause is Medical Care, Catch 22.
afe, Are you suggesting that cattle would gladly eat feces but would not eat a filet mignon?
ok please dont answer that.
“I do however, carry the good old American Xpress Black card cause it makes me feel like a whale.”
Make Money, Maybe you are a whale but thats only since the hoard of gold under your bed has shot through the roof. Before that you had a credit union debit card and the waitress would roll her eyes every time she had to roll the pin pad over to your table.
Did anyone see this?
Andy Pettitte (since his win came after midnight) has more wins in the month of November than all of the NY area football and basketball teams combined……
#234 It’s now the New Jersey Real Estate and Fantasy report….
Dear Leader wants to send 100,000 students to China? Let’s see, the 20something females in the last election were basically Obamabots, China has a female shortage and we owe them a lot of money. Hey, Dear Leader is smarter than I thought. Will China require them to be blonde or just have big boobs?
Yeah, so he put the cost of a BJ on the AMEX card, and then disputed the charge the next day. AMEX did a charge-back and the poor waitress was out a Big Tip.
Sounds like a John story.
kettle1 says:
November 18, 2009 at 2:13 pm
Good luck finding foods without HFCS if you eat the standard american diet.
ket: There is an entire store that does not sell it…it’s called Whole Foods.
A better story would be if he was making couterfeit Franklins and trading them for hummers.
make money says:
November 18, 2009 at 5:10 pm
ulqin-albani: I was on the way home from the gym and ducked my head into Samvera. The guy was so nice to me. He invited me in and said have a drink at the bar. I was sweated up and in gym shorts.
It was one of the few times in my life that I shook someone’s hand, said my name, and I didn’t get a “WTF just came out of your mouth?” looks……..
This is good food….
https://www.foodforlife.com/procart_catalog/index.cfm?ProductID=33&do=detail
Isn’t the fee on the black AMEX multiples of the Barclays Visa?
228: How does the Citi card compare re: concierge service, etc.?
Speaking of food, Nationwide Eggo Shortgae.
http://finance.yahoo.com/family-home/article/108191/leggo-your-eggo-theres-a-waffle-shortage
Anyone familiar w/ Stratus or Chase Sapphire cards?
Chifi
hence why I said “average” American diet. Most people do not buy at wholefoods
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_N2EyyrA_LPs/SwR7Vf83FYI/AAAAAAAAEQM/F72pWX6vAxg/s1600/obamawaffles.jpg
[250] db
Funny. And this post seems to go along with it:
“Beijing, China (CNN) — A little more than a year after his election, President Obama said his administration has laid the groundwork for success on global and domestic matters.
“I think that we’ve restored America’s standing in the world, and that’s confirmed by polls,” he told CNN’s Ed Henry in a wide-ranging interview this week during his trip to China.
“I think a recent one indicated that around the world, before my election, less than half the people — maybe less than 40 percent of the people — thought that you could count on America to do to the right thing. Now it’s up to 75 percent.”
Okay, let me get this straight: He has genuflected to royalty, apologized for our country, sent his minions to grovel in foreign capitals so they fund our profligacy, AND YET HE HAS DONE NOTHING DIFFERENT than what was done over the past 9 years, and the world now loves us?
Damn, if they are that easy to fool, let’s get a massive poker game on, and get our debt canceled.
veto-
Are you suggesting that you would eat a medium rare homo sapien before your own sh*t? Okay, don’t answer that.
LOL, chill man!
afe, your last post makes no sense at all. you are trying to pick an argument about nothing.
but thats ok, i think ive done that before too. and now i know how it feels.
This sketch sums up my job.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uMJYQ9LKGQ
The last line of this sketch is the most relevent
incredibly tardy to the wine discussion, but there’s a wine joint in Lambertville that is our go-to spot.
they must have 3 dozen wines under $10.
went recently to pick up our holiday haul of wine … got nearly 20 bottles. they give you 10% off for every 12 you buy, which is nice.
every bottle i got was $9.99 and under. been going to this place for about 6 months … never once have i had a bad bottle.
The NJ Mammography, Cattle Feed and Coprophagia Blog?
Good thing I brought home a twelve pack. I think I’m going to need it.
jamil says:
November 17, 2009 at 8:02 pm
Well, given that Congress is controlled by dems he could not have pushed any real pro-growth legislation needed to get out of recession but at least he would not have let the economy to collapse with lunatic anti-business legislation and threats. Business owners would feel much more safe to hire employees without all sort of gigantic health care, cap and tax, pro-union bills and mandates on horizon.
and he would have focused on economy rather than tranformation of the country to some bizarre communist worker paradise.
precisely. John McCain would have saved us. Gold would have gone down, the dollar would be strong, jobs would have been saved … John McCain would have done it all because he’s from the radical right!
/sarcasm off
i pity your friends, family, and co-workers if they have to put up with this garbage you spew on a daily basis.
you’re a fountain of misinformation.
clot, have you seen the henry handball that robbed Ireland today?
unreal.
http://tinyurl.com/ylh8h2a
gonna be some angry folks in Ireland tonight
Along with my earlier post(#18). Looks like the annual convention or crooks ball was this week.
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/11/local_nj_officials_at_annual_c.html
Gary
On the jobs front. The writing has been on the wall for a long time. I remember standing in Exchange Place PATH Station in 2002 with a load of programmers from Credit Suisse. They had just been canned from their online trading platform project that CS bought from DLJ 18 months previous. These guys were in shock wondering how this could have happened. The fact that the Internet bubble had just burst did not register with them. I learnt a lot in that time especially as I watched people chase the likes of CMGI stock, to the basement.
For me, I had just gone through a downsizing with my firm were we lost 75% of the workforce. In the 7 years since they hired back about 5-10% of the staff. Luckily cuts this time round have been minimal as there is no fat to trim, for 7 yars it has been pure muscle. At the end of the day, it is still employ at will and no union in tech, but it will be the most stable industry available as there are parts you just can’t outsource.
yikes: misinformation? You are one of those AP “factcheckers” and pissed off because getting laid off?
#259 pete
Interesting anecdotal (and non attributable) news from Jersey City.
There have been a few complaints from tenants in Newport/Exchange place. Companies are trying to refit office space to take in the Exodus from NYC. The big problem is, that there were a few too many caught up in the corruption probe that they are having some manpower issues. There is a shortage of staff to do inspections and process the permits.
yikes (258)-
Yeah. I had Ireland on a win bet at +540.
France won’t make it out of group play next year. They absolutely suck.
Schumpeter says:
November 18, 2009 at 10:33 am
Sarah Palin is a sideshow clown and a diversion.
I will not give her a penny or one minute of my attention.
i think clown is being awfully kind. im just happy she has no future in politics in any way, shape or form.
can someone get her to STFU regarding this newsweek cover being sexist? what a laugh. nice attempt at diversion, sarah
#263 Clot
Betting against the family again? France and Brazil are the ManU of interntional football. No matter how bad they play they are always capable of pulling it out of their a$$.
As much as it pains me to say it, I see England lifting it in South Africa. Now I have to go take a shower after saying that.
strumpet: What a wonder man…and a great chef to boot! I am inspired.
WSJ
TRICKS OF THE TRADE
NOVEMBER 18, 2009, 10:08 P.M. Thanksgiving Entertaining Chez Bobby Flay
By CHERYL LU-LIEN TAN
It may come as little surprise that Thanksgiving, a holiday centered around food, is chef and restaurateur Bobby Flay’s “favorite day of the year.” He says, “I love what Thanksgiving means, and I love what it tastes like—I wake up hungry.”
Beyond food, however, Mr. Flay says he sees the holiday as a tradition that is important to his life at home. Because he is so busy—Mr. Flay this week opened his 10th restaurant in the U.S., a Bar Americain at the Mohegan Sun Casino in Connecticut—he treasures the ability to spend time with his family and friends on Thanksgiving while cooking for them.
Almost every year, to keep things fresh for the 30 to 40 guests he hosts, Mr. Flay picks a theme for the meal. The Thanksgiving after Hurricane Katrina, for example, Mr. Flay did a New Orleans-style meal featuring a crawfish-chowder appetizer and Cajun-spiced turkey with bourbon-spiked gravy. This year, Mr. Flay is planning a “Flavors of New England” Thanksgiving.
Apart from the theme, however, Mr. Flay says he tries to make Thanksgiving entertaining easy on himself and his wife, actress Stephanie March. “I don’t know how people who are not professional chefs do [Thanksgiving]—it is brutal,” he says.
As part of his strategy, Mr. Flay eschews Thanksgiving decorations, simply setting out fresh flowers around the apartment and taping up a copy of his menu on a wall “so guests don’t have to ask me, ‘What’s in the sweet potatoes?’ ” he says. “Because I’ll have to answer that question 30 times.”
He generally makes only hors d’oeuvres, sides and the turkey, instructing guests to bring desserts or wine so he doesn’t have to worry about them. “Baking just takes up a lot of space and time,” he says, noting that he is clear with guests that “whatever they bring must be self-contained so nothing has to be done when they get here.”
Mr. Flay, who usually rises at 4 a.m. to start roasting the first of the two 30-pound turkeys that he makes, immediately starts on his six to eight sides when the turkey is in the oven so that all the food is done by the late afternoon, when the guests sit down for the meal.
Mr. Flay creates a festive mood by greeting guests with a cocktail his wife designs—cranberry syrup with vodka and ginger ale, for example. “It adds to the entertainment value,” he says.
After that cocktail, however, Mr. Flay makes sure to serve only red and white wine. “Try not to have a full bar—it’s too complicated, and you’ll need extra glasses,” he says. Mr. Flay also serves hors d’oeuvres that can sit out on a table or bar for a while without needing reheating. In recent years, for example, he has set out crispy oysters and blue-crab salad.
Mr. Flay keeps simmering pots of hot chicken stock handy, scooping some over the turkey and some sides to warm them up just before serving. He also uses one turkey as the “show turkey” that he carves in front of guests but makes sure to “completely butcher” the other one before guests arrive so it’s sliced and ready to go.
While Mr. Flay likes to keep the celebration low-key by “cooking in my socks,” having a football game on and serving the meal buffet-style, with guests finding places to sit and eat around the apartment, he does insist on using silver and fine china. “And everybody gets a real napkin,” he says. “It’s an important meal—we want people to feel like it’s a special day.”
To that end, Mr. Flay makes sure to pause before eating to give a toast in which he acknowledges “what’s going on in the world that we can be thankful for.” After that, everyone digs in.
Another day, another cheap seller saves us from making a colossally big mistake.
$15k separates our best and final offer from the seller’s counter (still overpriced). Seller - who has owned the place for about 20 years - decides they are going stage the house and try and rent it instead of cutting a deal. And continue to pay the 12k/year in taxes while they wait out the market. Oh and they also offered to lend us the 15k so we can “afford” their overpriced ask.
How much longer before they sell the place to someone else for less than we offered?
Does this sound good?
Espresso Martini
Patron XO Cafe, Kahlua Coffee Liquor,
Illy Espresso
For BC:
Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for ‘global collapse’
Société Générale has advised clients to be ready for a possible “global economic collapse” over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6599281/Societe-Generale-tells-clients-how-to-prepare-for-global-collapse.html
In a report entitled “Worst-case debt scenario”, the bank’s asset team said state rescue packages over the last year have merely transferred private liabilities onto sagging sovereign shoulders, creating a fresh set of problems.
Overall debt is still far too high in almost all rich economies as a share of GDP (350pc in the US), whether public or private. It must be reduced by the hard slog of “deleveraging”, for years.
“As yet, nobody can say with any certainty whether we have in fact escaped the prospect of a global economic collapse,” said the 68-page report, headed by asset chief Daniel Fermon. It is an exploration of the dangers, not a forecast.
Under the French bank’s “Bear Case” scenario, the dollar would slide further and global equities would retest the March lows. Property prices would tumble again. Oil would fall back to $50 in 2010.
Governments have already shot their fiscal bolts. Even without fresh spending, public debt would explode within two years to 105pc of GDP in the UK, 125pc in the US and the eurozone, and 270pc in Japan. Worldwide state debt would reach $45 trillion, up two-and-a-half times in a decade.
(UK figures look low because debt started from a low base. Mr Ferman said the UK would converge with Europe at 130pc of GDP by 2015 under the bear case).
The underlying debt burden is greater than it was after the Second World War, when nominal levels looked similar. Ageing populations will make it harder to erode debt through growth. “High public debt looks entirely unsustainable in the long run. We have almost reached a point of no return for government debt,” it said.
Inflating debt away might be seen by some governments as a lesser of evils.
If so, gold would go “up, and up, and up” as the only safe haven from fiat paper money. Private debt is also crippling. Even if the US savings rate stabilises at 7pc, and all of it is used to pay down debt, it will still take nine years for households to reduce debt/income ratios to the safe levels of the 1980s.
The bank said the current crisis displays “compelling similarities” with Japan during its Lost Decade (or two), with a big difference: Japan was able to stay afloat by exporting into a robust global economy and by letting the yen fall. It is not possible for half the world to pursue this strategy at the same time.
SocGen advises bears to sell the dollar and to “short” cyclical equities such as technology, auto, and travel to avoid being caught in the “inherent deflationary spiral”. Emerging markets would not be spared. Paradoxically, they are more leveraged to the US growth than Wall Street itself. Farm commodities would hold up well, led by sugar.
267.NJGator says:
November 18, 2009 at 10:46 pm
Another day, another cheap seller saves us from making a colossally big mistake.
$15k separates our best and final offer from the seller’s counter (still overpriced). Seller - who has owned the place for about 20 years - decides they are going stage the house and try and rent it instead of cutting a deal. And continue to pay the 12k/year in taxes while they wait out the market. Oh and they also offered to lend us the 15k so we can “afford” their overpriced ask.
How much longer before they sell the place to someone else for less than we offered?
Gates: not sure the point you are making….sounds as if Stu and you are needlessly creating a soap opera for yourselves…..spend the $15K or move on….why is the seller cheap? Imprudent maybe, but they are willing to spend money to support their opinion. It is the antithesis of cheap.
jamil says:
November 18, 2009 at 9:46 pm
yikes: misinformation? You are one of those AP “factcheckers” and pissed off because getting laid off?
neither. the latter, not yet (i’ll let you know next summer)
just speaking the facts about your incessant, clueless, inaccurate rantings.
can’t you find a political website to pollute?
lisoosh 268 That is the way I see it.
Got food , got ammo? Oh did I forget gold!
The knives are starting to come out. Democratic Rep. DeFazio Calls for Geithner and Summers to Be Fired, claims the discontent among the progressive wing of the Democratic Paty has become acute.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/11/democratic-rep-defazio-calls-for-geithner-and-summers-to-be-fired.html
The end is nigh…………..
http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/knicksblog/knicks_could_make_allen_an_offer_yBkoNB582wcsvT6aq9SyDO
The end is nigh…………..
chi isn’t it always.
Chi:
No soap opera whatsoever. We do our math, we determine the correct price and we make an offer based on it. We will not overpay. Not again! The soap opera occurs when one pays more than the house is truly worth, and during next week’s episode, the house drops in value to equal the original offer.
Just wish the damn gubmint would stop subsidizing housing with these stupid credits. How can you buy not knowing what the market will truly bare? Fifteen thousand is a lot to go up knowing that in April it could drop that much in one month’s time.
Stu , hold the course. you are in the better position. In 2 years they will give them away ,the question is will anybody want them.Taxes taxes taxes………..
275. stu,
your logic is solid imo. This isnt HGTV, where you court the seller by never countering more than 5k.
Barbara, will you do me a favor?
Can you go to kw dot com and type in your zip? On list sort by price, then view as list? Is every pic listed as a foreclosure there?
just a sec pat, I will check.
It must just be a bad upload with the my local system. Weird.
I’m hoping.
Thanks.
i don’t see a view as list option? i’m just seeing listing with pics, grid style on the page. They do not appear to be foreclosures.
It’s a local thing, I think. They really need Gary down here.
But for a second, I was in foreclosure heaven.
Check out 20842. The view as list option is to the right above the grid.
too late. They fixed it. One can dream.
I have the SG worse case scenario report in its entirety. I don’t have time to host it though. Can someone give me thei email and then share it with the board via a link?
Nevermind, here it is:
http://www.mediafire.com/?jytmzoezyty
Excellent post..Keep them coming :) Thanks for sharing.
This is one of the pleasant surprises of browsing/surfing or whatever you want to call it. You can easily find something that matters or at least entertains.
I want you to know that I appreciate this.