From the Star Ledger:
Economic Indicators point to an uneven housing recovery
As the New Jersey real estate market tries to get its footing back, more evidence was released this week showing the terrain is uneven.
New home building in the Northeast hit the skids last month, but at the same time fewer New Jersey homeowners received foreclosure notices, according to the latest state and federal statistics.
Construction of new homes in the region fell 18.8 percent in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 56,000 from 69,000 in September — the biggest percentage drop in the country, according to the Commerce Department. That included a nearly 10 percent decline in single-family homes.
Meanwhile, for the first time this year, the number of residential foreclosure filings was actually lower than the same period in 2008, according to the state judiciary.
Lenders started 4,991 foreclosure proceedings against New Jersey homeowners in October, down from 5,262 during the same month last year.
The state is retreating from a foreclosure filings high in June, when 6,138 foreclosure notices were recorded.
…
More than 2,600 New Jerseyans have received counseling through the state’s Foreclosure Mediation Program, Gov. Jon Corzine said earlier this fall. About 1,450 cases have been completed, and roughly half of the homeowners were able to stay in their homes.
…
In New Jersey, foreclosure filings from September to October in Cumberland and Warren counties increased by the widest margins — 8.75 percent and 11.29 percent, respectively, while filings in Hunterdon and Passaic counties decreased the most — 32.1 percent and 27.5 percent, respectively.
…
Unemployment is the main reason homeowners are falling behind, said Joseph Seneca, a professor of economics at Rutgers University’s Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy. While the economy is likely out of recession, the state’s unemployment rate is now only starting to retreat from a record 26-year-high of 9.8 percent. The state’s jobless rate for October was 9.7 percent.“Looking forward, it’s hard to pull the trigger on any big purchases, such as homes,” Seneca said of the housing climate in the state.
From Bloomberg:
New Jersey Unemployment Rate Fell to 9.7% in October
ew Jersey’s unemployment rate fell one-tenth of a percentage point in October to 9.7 percent from a 32-year high the previous month, according to the state’s labor department.
The rate last month compares with 6 percent in October 2008. Total nonfarm employment in the state fell by 1,800 positions to 3.9 million in October, after a loss of 10,600 jobs from August to September, the department said in a statement.
“The preliminary estimates for October, in which the unemployment rate declined and monthly job losses slowed, show signs that a slow recovery is under way,” Labor Commissioner David Socolow said in the statement.
The U.S. unemployment rate jumped to 10.2 percent in October, the highest level since 1983, from 9.8 percent in September.
New Jersey’s private-sector employment was lower by 4,400, while public sector jobs rose by 2,600. The largest private- sector losses were in professional and business services, with a loss of 3,600 jobs; and financial activities, with a decline of 3,000 positions. The trade, transportation and utilities sector lost 2,200 jobs, largely because of less-than-expected seasonal hiring in retail businesses, the department said.
Construction and manufacturing jobs each gained by 1,600, according to the labor department.
From the Record:
NJ jobless rate falls to 9.7%
New Jersey’s unemployment rate improved slightly in October to 9.7 percent, from 9.8 percent in September, state officials reported Wednesday.
Economists said, however, that the better number was driven more by job seekers giving up looking than by people getting jobs.
Nationally, unemployment rose from 9.8 percent to 10.2 percent in October.
The state also lost jobs at a slower rate than in recent months, with employment falling by 1,800, according to the monthly jobs report by the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development.
New Jersey lost 4,400 private sector jobs in October while adding 2,600 government jobs. The report also revised the state’s job loss for September from the previously reported 12,700 jobs to 10,600.
The state has now lost 173,000 jobs since employment peaked in January 2008.
Patrick O’Keefe, an economist with the accounting firm J.H. Cohn in Roseland, said the figures show “the state’s economy has still not found the bottom in this recession.”
He said the figures show the decline in the unemployment rate was largely fueled by jobless workers who stopped looking for work out of frustration.
Almost like the buyer credit extension had no effect..
From the Mortgage Bankers Association (hat tip CR):
Press Release – Weekly Application Survey
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 13, 2009. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume decreased 2.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3.3 percent compared with the previous week.
The Refinance Index decreased 1.4 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4.7 percent from one week earlier. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index has declined for six consecutive weeks and is at its lowest level since November 1997. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7.9 percent compared with the previous week and was 14.7 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Given interest rates remaining low for the next 6 – 18 months, could all the mortgage resets actually benefit individuals and the economy?
That is, will the interest rates on the reset mortgages actually be lower, dropping the monthly payment and freeing up a bit of consumer capital?
Is there any action pending that would allow (force) mortgage companies to do the resets a bit quicker while interest rates remain low?
At this point, the reset problem has more to do with I/O loans shifting to fully amortizing.
With these loans, the payment will increase despite interest rates falling (although this won’t help folks with teaser rates). These are the 3/1, 5/1, 7/1 IO variants.
The problem is amplified by the fact that it is unlikely these folks will be able to refi as housing prices have fallen, they’ve got little in the way of equity, and lending standards have tightened.
Those with non-teaser amortizing ARMs would be seeing payments drop. This is the group you are talking about. However, the folks with equity and income to support a fixed 30y probably refinanced during this last wave of the refi boom. We’re already seeing the benefits of that. This would also include folks that refi’d into lower rates (there are many folks here who did so).
To some extent there is also an issue with Option ARMs (Pick-a-payment) loans hitting their neg-am caps, forcing folks into higher payments. But this is a bigger issue out West I believe.
Thanks Grim. If you had to estimate (or if you have hard data), and looked at the pending resets for the next 30 months, what % of the loans are IO?
Based on your comments above, if say 50% + are IO, then this housing mess is going to continue to get worse.
Would love to have a crystal ball to know what the US & world economy will look like my middle of 2011.
Thanks for your comments.
Based on your comments above, if say 50% + are IO, then this housing mess is going to continue to get worse.
Hard to estimate, since you’ve got to look back to certain timeframes.
3/*s hitting reset now would have been made in November of ’06. Remember, they got a pretty bad rap in the early part of the bust, the percentage of these has fallen pretty dramatically. We’re probably though the bulk of the 3/*s at this point.
5/*s hitting now were from November ’04.
If we go back to old LoanPerformance data, I think the I/O numbers for this area were roughly 10-12% of loans outstanding (share of total loans) at that point. Now, some have refi’d, some have sold, some have foreclosed on.
You don’t need 50% of mortages going bad to cause huge problems to ripple through the system.
grim (7)-
You can have any kind of mortgage there is; when one or both borrowers lose their jobs, that alone (given current savings and equity levels) is enough to make it a “game over” situation.
The thing that shocks me is how many people who are upper bracket earners, with houses that are 750K+, live from check to check. The accrued equity and savings isn’t that much better than some dead-broke subprime vicitms I’ve helped.
The pain is spreading; have no doubt about it.
Lots of 2/28 and 3/27 timebomb mortgages starting to go off in my area. Also COFI (indexed, pay-option) grenades.
According to the NY FRB, as of August 2009, 66.46% of subprime loans in NJ were ARM, and 44.75% of Alt-A loans were ARM.
10.46% of those subprime loans and 6.2% of the Alt-A loans are resetting in the next 12 months.
Economists said, however, that the better number was driven more by job seekers giving up looking than by people getting jobs.
How do they measure “job seekers giving up looking”, accurately?
The government probably employs thousands to crunch irrelevant numbers.
Household survey.
Are you employed? No.
Are you actively looking for work? No.
No longer in the workforce if they had been before.
Use basic stats on the sample data to extrapolate to the population.
So then things can only continue to get worse.
Resets, foreclosures, continued growth in umemployment (just look at big pharma in the tri-state area). Maybe the growth in umemployment will slow but seems like layoffs will continue.
Poster #8 is right – lots of folks in the upper end living on credit and they are leveraged too.
Adding to this is not just economic problems in our country.
I wonder if everything (US & world economies) will just implode.
The jobs numbers come from a survey of businesses (establishment survey) which can sometimes show minor disconnects.
For example, jobs were down by 1800 this month according to the establishment survey, so unemployment should be up.
But it fell!
Well, yes, because the number of folks in the workforce fell by 11000 in one month.
October
439.2/4525.9=9.7%
September
445.9/4536.9=9.8%
So there were 6700 fewer unemployed by there were 11000 fewer in the workforce.
Where did they go?
Goldman: Flu Fear Spurs Donation!
(Reuters) New York: Having inoculated its employees with H1N1 vaccine dosages usurped from pregnant women and children, Goldman Sachs has increased its vigilance against the contagious virus by banning employee contact with spare change.
An internal memo outlines steps staff should take to avoid becoming ill, starting with the eradication of the potentially infected currency that may have lodged itself under the seats of their automobiles. The hazardous materials are being collected and sent to Small Business for disposal.
The memo also advised employees to “resist the urge to open your own car door ; let your driver do it.”
-Richard Ambrose
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/goldman-flu-fear-spurs-donation/
Grim (15)
Those businesses had their phones disconected, so they weren’t able to tell the surveyors that they were now unemployed.
Lies, all lies. Anyone who doesn’t genuinely understand that UE is actually about 21-22% is drinking the Kool-Aid.
All the spin and CNBC talk is propaganda. Time now to be making plans for when it all goes poof.
Stock all the provisions you can. Buy as many guns and as much ammo as you can.
It’s all coming down hard. Today is just one day closer to oblivion.
What to do when the mall is home to packs of feral dogs?
What to do when the gas stations on Rt 22 are controlled by armed gangs?
60k communication jobs lost in NYC along
with 40k financial jobs in last two years.
now, would that have an effect on the
POS capes with 10k taxes? after all
this is NNJ.
freedy (21)-
When will those people take to the streets?
[8] clot
Doesn’t surprise me at all. For years, I have looked around at the opulence and said “I make a decent salary? Why can’t I afford these things?” We now know the answer.
Going forward, do I plan to be more opulent and save less? I wonder why I shouldn’t? Moral hazard is out the window; personal responsibility is for suckers.
If I were venal and smart, I would park my funds in untraceable accounts in the carribean, live from paycheck to paycheck, and if TSHTF, declare bankruptcy, stop paying the mortgage, and collect unemployment and other bennies.
Maybe these folks know something that the rest of us don’t. That you can, and should, game the system, and the folks at the country club will still talk to you.
[12] essex
Tens of thousands, actually.
Some of them are friends of mine.
Schump,
Some positive news, Hi-ho is in backwardation.
“If I were venal and smart, I would park my funds in untraceable accounts in the carribean, live from paycheck to paycheck, and if TSHTF, declare bankruptcy, stop paying the mortgage, and collect unemployment and other bennies.”
Nom,
Sounds like a New Year’s resolution.
to stupid to take to the streets
So how long can you stay in your home in NJ without paying the mortgage and the Heloc?
Tax News of the Day:
The left-leaning ITEP came out with its annual study about tax fairness in a report that compares the tax burdens of each state.
http://www.itepnet.org/whopays3.pdf
It is a well-done analysis, and I don’t care to quibble over the data, though I do disagree with their philosophical bent.
One thing that they try to do is to shame states with “regressive” tax systems, which are those that have higher effective tax rates for lower quintiles of the populace. In fact, all states do (and the reason is painfully simple—these studies include sales and property taxes, which are not income-based) but certain states are “worse” for poor people than others.
Penna. was on their Top 10 Worst Offenders list because it has a low flat-rate income tax and a high sales tax. Not surprisingly, NJ was not, and in fact is one of the most “progressive” states (i.e., soak the rich) in the nation.
So, according to ITEP, PA is a “bad” state and NJ is a “good” state when it comes to taxation. Wonder how it has worked out for Rendell and Corzine thus far?
Comrade,
I used to wonder about taking a CC, maxing it then ignoring the bills, only recently have I considered doing it for reals. I’d buy important stuff, stuff to see me through then ditch it, just to see what would happen. What would happen? Bad credit score? Who cares? Phone calls? Hang up.
According to Yahoo – Best place to raise your kids in NJ – Edison! Runners up – East Brunswick and Bloomfield.
http://images.businessweek.com/ss/09/11/1117_best_places_to_raise_kids/31.htm
Oops – re 31 – that article is actually from Businesswekk. Sorry!
[26] BC
Actually, the resolution will be to establish a charitable foundation in the U.S. with a mission to support charities abroad. Oh, and I set up some charities in foreign countries, all controlled by board members hand-picked by moi.
When it is set up, I get a donation for contributing to the foundation here. The Foundation, by law, must give out a certain amount in grants; these grants will go to the foreign foundations (all perfectly legal, BTW).
Now the money is down the rabbit hole and beyond the auditing reach of the government, especially if the foreign country has no TIEA with US.
What will the foreign foundation do with the money? Well, it has to be a legal purpose. One I can think of is funding an annual scholarship for visiting american college students, who meet certain criteria, and spend part of their spring break doing good works in their country (like picking up garbage on a beach or something like that).
Naturally, these scholarships will not be well-publicized in the U.S. since the foreign foundation need not register with Treasury. And while the recipient US college students may be subject to US taxation, it won’t be that bad.
What happens to the rest? Well, perhaps the foundation uses the money to fund an “artist in residence” program many years from now. Since the artist is now an expatriate, well, need I paint you a picture (literally)?
yankee fans will appreciate this (jeter and his squeeze)
http://tinyurl.com/yjyc353
the middle class will hate to see this in the country’s biggest newspaper
http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/general/2009-11-19-bankruptcy19_CV_N.htm
#30 – What would happen? Bad credit score? Who cares? Phone calls? Hang up.
Well, sooner or later an outstanding judgement and then a lien.
grim, 34 in mod (2 links, both quality)
[30] barbara
Done all the time. Here’s another tip: assets in retirement accounts can’t be attached.
May want to wait until the dems change the bankruptcy laws back to their pre-reform status, and get rid of Chp. 13. Then you will see the floodgates open.
I am trying to learn more about personal bankruptcy filings. I think it will be a great solo practice area, especially since the lawyer gets paid first.
28.freedy says:
November 19, 2009 at 8:53 am
So how long can you stay in your home in NJ without paying the mortgage and the Heloc?
freedy: The guy down the street from me (in Colts Neck) has a 3000 sq.ft. home with the utilities shut off (well water). He has a generator that runs in his back yard. The house is in foreclosure and he hasn’t made any payments in 3 years. According to my neighbors, his mother is a realtor, and every time the bank is about to proceedings, she produces a qualified offer on the house that stops the process. Then magically the offer craps out. I think there is about $1M of liens on a house that is worth about $750K, although it must be declining due to deteriorating conditions.
East Brunswick is a sprawling park N shop. Good schools but little access to cities via public transportation. I suppose if you want to raise your kid chubby, car/chauffeur dependent, urbanely retarded, and video game shut it, East Brunswick is a great town. Admittedly, the schools rank well but there’s more to life than schoolin’
cc are unsecured who cares anymore
Re: resets
I’m not sure the the Fed data, or any other data for that matter, can give us a clear picture of the impact of resets.
As mentioned, a huge missing variable is who/what were refinanced.
The problem is really in option ARMs and I/O ARMs that begin full amort at some point. I don’t know whether that data is available and can then be adjusted for refis.
A classic ARM holder from the peak – however many are still out there – is seeing payments go down if they haven’t already refinanced. I have a property bought in 2004 on a 5/1 I’ll be disposing of shortly. I received the reset notice a couple of months back and there was a decent sized payment decrease.
Regarding Alt A and I/O, these products in and of themselves are not necessarily problematic. Your classic Alt-A or I/O borrower is one who uses the mortgage for tax or liquidity purposes. These I/Os at least are still being offered to this crowd. I receive weekly mortgage updates from my broker/bank and last week they had the I/O product at 25 to 37.5 bps higher than traditional rates. Ironically enough, their marketing lead-in was that they are able to offer these tight spreads because of the Treasury funds they received.
That the Fed reports 55% of Alt A were fixed rate suggests a more classic use for this product. A purchaser way out on a limb stretching to move up would have used an Alt A ARM to bring the monthly nut in tighter. The borrower taking the significantly higher spread and monthly payment on fixed rate at the time at least suggests some relative level of financial stability or tax/business planning.
Similarly, it makes perfect sense that subprime borrowers were 66% ARM, as almost by definition they needed to stretch to get what they wanted.
Bottom line, I think the only hard conclusions one can reach is that ARM resets are dropping payments for people holding these products from peak, the holder of any option ARM or I/O with amortization reset is in for a big increase, and none of it matters if unemployment continues to march up.
Anything else is only speculation.
you can always settle on a cc,, give em
20 cents on the dollar, they will take it
34. ha! liens on what, exactly? I mean, if my money is elsewhere. Liens on my real estate? Meh, I’m not selling it so it will be like a HELOC of sorts ;)
31 – Are you sure that wasn’t an ugly town contest?
More Tax News of the Day:
IRS has published its quarterly list of expatriates (those who actually renounced their US citizenship).
Except for one quarter in 2008, which was over 100 names, this list has never been longer than a few dozen people over the last few years.
This quarter’s list was over 130 names. And a lot fewer of them were “foreign” sounding than in quarters past.
In the big scheme, this is a nanoscopic number, and many were probably not wealthy tax expats. Also, one family could account for 5% of the total. But I have been watching this number. It is a “canary in the coal mine” indicator for me, and if it continues to climb, it signals that yet another canary croaked.
#31 gator,
Edison!! WTF!! Rt 27 is horrible. Rt 1 area is awful, but you get to live between the train tracks, a busy highway, and high powered tension lines. Plus you are near the turnpike (like you can hear the traffic on it near).
credit scores won’t matter much,
Safe – I don’t get Bloomfield on the list. Good schools? Maybe if your kid drops out after finishing Brookdale Elementary.
“So, according to ITEP, PA is a “bad” state and NJ is a “good” state when it comes to taxation. Wonder how it has worked out for Rendell and Corzine thus far?”
Please, share the other ‘bad’ states.
The kids are only years from HS graduation…..
#42 – I mean, if my money is elsewhere. Liens on my real estate?
If you had cash on the side then it would purely be a matter of if the liens, and their potential hassle, outweighed the benefit of whatever you were buying with the cc. The liens would stop a sale and would also halt a refi or heloc.
If you seriously expect NJ to become Meggiddo like within a year or two then any liens won’t matter. Otherwise it is something that should be considered.
[42] barbara,
Not trying to be a buzzkill, but money elsewhere can be attached, and if it is beyond US jurisdiction (which must be declared in tax filings), you can be jailed for contempt if you refuse to repatriate it.
You can take it off the grid and keep it buried in the back yard, or giving it to another for safekeeping, but not disclosing it in bankruptcy is a crime.
There are also garnishment and liens, although if you are in waaay in over your head, the CCbank may decide you aren’t worth it and settle. Then the money comes out of the ground and settles the other debts. I suspect that this is done often.
Disclaimer: does not constitute legal advice, nor is advice intended. Nothing herein is intended to create an attorney-client relationship. Commentator is going to STFU now.
toshiro, I thought liens can be settled at time of closing on a property. If I come to the closing table with substantial equity, a check gets cut to the lien holder before the closing is completed, or does this not take place?
comrade, why would it have to come down to bankruptcy? I know a couple people still earning who stopped paying their CC bills. Credit is lousy but they still get CC cards! Ok, I don’t get any of this. Back to paying my bills.
Chi – re my comments last night. Poor choice of words on my part (apologies but too many glasses of wine). Should have used foolish and unrealistic instead :) They have a number in their head that is not connected to reality. Every other comparable home with reasonable sellers in that area has moved, and moved fairly quickly. They are sitting for 2+ months now without a price reduction and are not getting showings and have received no offers other than ours.
We offered what we thought was fair. Even moved up a bit after that. If we felt the house was actually worth their most recent counter, we would have paid it. Even our inital offer was within 10% of ask. Have even spoken with other folks who are in the market to buy in the area (and are not RE bears like us) and they thought our bid was probably even too high.
So for a gap of no more than 15k, they will now sit on a house with 12k/year in taxes. And try to rent it out during the Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday season. This, in a town where the rental market is pretty much entirely driven by the school year.
No soap opera here. We’re just going to ask our realtor to only show us homes that people really want to sell from now on.
Gator
“No soap opera here. We’re just going to ask our realtor to only show us homes that people really want to sell from now on.”
I told my Montclair realtor to only call me on houses that are within 40k of recent comps. She hasn’t called much.
#51 – If I come to the closing table with substantial equity, a check gets cut to the lien holder before the closing is completed, or does this not take place?
Nuts, now I’m trying to remember the differences between tax liens, construction liens and all the rest….
I *think* you’re right and you should be able to satisfy the liens at a closing.
IIRC (and I may not)it’s outstanding judgements are usually required to be satisied before a closing because they can become a lien…
Are Credit Scores like that thing at the topless bar Scores that dispenses Scores Bucks on your Credit card?
[48] leftwing,
It was in the report I linked, but the states are: Washington, Florida, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Illinois, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Alabama.
Note that this study looked at relative progressivity, not overall tax burdens, so this should not be viewed as a proxy for best places to retire (though a few of these states are retirement havens). Further, a few of them are in awful shape and may need to change their tax structure.
I don’t expect too much change there, however, as states are particularly vulnerable to wealth migration which is why leftie groups like CBPP, TJN and ITEP push for more federal taxation and aid to states so that wealth can’t migrate away from a state.
U.K. Royal Mint Quadruples Gold-Coin Output as Investors Chase Diversity
Is it really diversification into gold if everyone buys in at once or just the next bubble?
[52] barbara,
At some point, if the debt is worth it, th ccbank will try to enforce it. A bankruptcy filing stays all collection actions, and eventually expunges them, unless you are in Chp. 13.
On East Brunswick, I am a product of their school system. Barb pretty much nailed the description, only my parents didn’t chauffeur me anywhere. I rode my bicycle everywhere I needed to go. Didn’t get my first car until I was 25 and as you all know, I’m still driving it.
The school system is excellent and you can get to NYC on a bus from the Tower Center pretty easily as it is located on the interchange of the Turnpike exit 9 and route 18.
I too don’t know how one can compare Bloomfield to EB and Edison. I think some background checks on the author would find they are of Indian descent, living in Bloomfield. They probably through in EB and Edison as both town have a decent Indian population.
ulqin-albani: I was on the way home from the gym and ducked my head into Samvera. The guy was so nice to me. He invited me in and said have a drink at the bar. I was sweated up and in gym shorts.
It was one of the few times in my life that I shook someone’s hand, said my name, and I didn’t get a “WTF just came out of your mouth?” looks……..
ChiFi, Shqipe,
What did you expect? Whenever you read the history of Albanian people you read that they are great hosts and welcome unknown guest with their open arms.
The only issue is that Guido’s got here first and established the Italian high quality experience in eveything. If you put Italian in front of it you can charge a premium. whether it’s Cars with Ferrari and Lamborgini,fashion, leather, furniture, Suits, Shoes, cuisine, coffee, masonary, construction, wine, olive oil, and they tied it beautifully with organized crime.
Albanians kept the same formula. Why mess with a good thing?.
I remember meeting a girl from Bloomfield who told me she was gang raped there so I guess if your daughter getting gang raped in a high school bathroom is a criteria for a good school then yeah put Bloomfield on the list. I stopped talking to a realtor when she put Bloomfield houses in the email.
The businesweek report was limited to towns with a population for 45,000 or greater. That only leaves 37 towns in NJ to choose from. I think Bloomfield is defensible in this case.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_municipalities_in_New_Jersey
“Is it really diversification into gold if everyone buys in at once or just the next bubble?”
J,
Bangs oneself on head.
Where’s the bubble, are you putting the cart before the horse?
J,
Take a look at COT report. Now, tell me who’s long/short.
re: 32
Gator,
That article was written by “Prashant Gopal” – that explains it. Edison is the best for Indians’ kids.
Weekly unemployment claims are unchanged @ 505k.
#66 – Sorry, that should be Initial weekly claims.
Ok, so it’s an Indian attempt to pump up their housing values. Got it.
Bank of America Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase have earned $19 billion in shareholder profits so far this year and are hiring new workers to sustain that momentum. Goldman Sachs (alone has earned $7.4 billion, and is doing the same. Those firms, and others, like American International Group would like to offer lucrative pay packages to lure or retain the best traders, managers and senior executives. They are currently haggling with the government’s pay czar or preparing PR offensives to justify such moves.
For mortgage modifications alone, the top four banks — Bank of America JPMorgan Chase Wells Fargo and Citigroup
have hired 17,000 new employees, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal on Thursday. BofA, JPMorgan Citigroup and Goldman Sachs are looking to hire another 10,000 workers, according to Forbes, mainly for their trading and investment advisory businesses as the capital markets have improved.
Those tallies don’t include smaller financial shops around the country that have begun to hire once again. There are also new start-ups that seized on big banks’ weaknesses, sensing the industry wasn’t prepared to handle huge demand for mortgage refinancings. And more are in the pipeline.
re: #57 – John
How can it be a bubble where there is only so much of it and central banks are paying top dollar to buy it?
Well at least she can get into Hofstra University
danzud says:
November 19, 2009 at 9:55 am
I remember meeting a girl from Bloomfield who told me she was gang raped there so I guess if your daughter getting gang raped in a high school bathroom is a criteria for a good school then yeah put Bloomfield on the list. I stopped talking to a realtor when she put Bloomfield houses in the email.
Until Central Banks don’t want it no more and start selling. The USA is the largest holder of Gold in the World. They are not buying Gold. However, if Gold hits 2,000 an oz and we have bonds to pay they may just decide to call a top and hit the sell button.
Sean says:
November 19, 2009 at 10:10 am
re: #57 – John
How can it be a bubble where there is only so much of it and central banks are paying top dollar to buy it?
#14 I’m thinking that China’s economy is more smoke and mirrors than substance. Just a gut feeling. Well, that, and all the construction that seems to serve no purpose.
#69 And when the phony market collapses, they will lay them all off again. Its all short term.
“Guido’s got here first and established the Italian high quality experience in eveything”
Make, Sounds like the chinese who run mexican food take out joints. Also many mexicans claim to be part italian or from spain but sometimes its obviously a stretch. What is this little tiff all about between you albanians and the italians?
Is it kind of like the romans and napolatons waging pizza wars on eachother?
re: #72 – John the IMF is selling out, China, Russia India and others want their Gold. If the US pushed the sell button today as you say and sold say 1/2 of it’s reserves at $1,000 an OZ that would not even cover the 1.4 Trillion deficit for this year only.
The US has bonds to sell John, that elephant in the room is gonna take a dump soon, and it won’t be gold or treasuries.
How can it be a bubble where there is only so much of it and central banks are paying top dollar to buy it?
Ladies and gentelman,
Shiny is not the next bubble. Don’t be silly and give up equities, bonds, and your DP to stack on some metal that shines and think that you’re making a great investments to preserve wealth.
Didn’t you hear buffet and gates last week on CNBC saying that America is a great nation and everyone should invest in American businesses.
“How can it be a bubble where there is only so much of it and central banks are paying top dollar to buy it?”
Sean, i am a holder of GLD and have been converted to be a believer by some seemingly intelligent investors on this board and because of this unique economic environment we are facing.
But – your description above reads like a text book definition of a bubble.
And that is exactly the reason why ive loaded up on it as well as asian stocks. Once a bubble starts building it seems to take years before it blows up.
new jersey: welfare state says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
November 19, 2009 at 9:09 am
yankee fans will appreciate this (jeter and his squeeze)
http://tinyurl.com/yjyc353
the middle class will hate to see this in the country’s biggest newspaper
http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/general/2009-11-19-bankruptcy19_CV_N.htm
“if Gold hits 2,000 an oz and we have bonds to pay they may just decide to call a top and hit the sell button.”
not if they need it to keep the dollar above parity with the zimbabwae dollar.
We could go back to a scenario where paper currency becomes inferior to asset backed currency and then all of the sudden the bubble in gold prices could become justified.
Veto – Gold is another currency, simply because central banks around the world want to own and trade it they do not (the central banks) buy and sell anything but debt, fiat dollars and gold.
It is not in a bubble. Over the past ten years, thousands of Ivy League university trained money mangers, schooled in the “science” of modern portfolio theory, spent in aggregate hundreds of thousands of hours analyzing the stock market, rotating holdings from one sector to another, carefully selecting entry and exit points to maximize returns, costing untold billions in fees, all of them trying to beat the horrible -8% nominal return of the S&P 500 index over the last ten years.
Few were able to mimic the 260% return on gold they could have earned if they bought gold at the start of each year since 1998 and then did NOTHING else.
The ever expanding money supply is going to continue to expand (there will be no deflation) we are running a 1.4 Trillion dollar a year deficit and along with the ECB, China, Russia and everyone else they are attempting to print there way out of debt bubble. The central banks will continue to buy since they to want to hedge their exposure to to the US dollar with gold. This could go on for a decade or more. I would not call Gold a bubble, I would call it a hedge against inflation.
Making the rounds….good for some giggles.
The Washington Post’s Mensa Invitational once again asked readers to take any word from the dictionary, alter it by adding, subtracting, or changing one letter, and supply a new definition.
Here are the 2009 winners:
1. Cashtration (n.): The act of buying a house, which renders the subject financially impotent for an indefinite period of time.
2. Ignoranus : A person who’s both stupid and an a**hole.
3. Intaxication : Euphoria at getting a tax refund, which lasts until you realize it was your money to start with.
4. Reintarnation : Coming back to life as a hillbilly.
5. Bozone (n.): The substance surrounding stupid people that stops bright ideas from penetrating. The bozone layer, unfortunately, shows little sign of breaking down in the near future.
6. Foreploy : Any misrepresentation about yourself for the purpose of getting laid.
7. Giraffiti : Vandalism spray-painted very, very high
8. Sarchasm : The gulf between the author of sarcastic wit and the person who doesn’t get it.
9. Inoculatte : To take coffee intravenously when you are running late.
10. Osteopornosis : A degenerate disease. (This one got extra credit.)
11. Karmageddon : It’s like, when everybody is sending off all these really bad vibes, right? And then, like, the Earth explodes and, it’s like, a serious bummer.
12. Decafalon (n.): The gruelling event of getting through the day consuming only things that are good for you.
13. Glibido : All talk and no action.
14. Dopeler Effect: The tendency of stupid ideas to seem smarter when they come at you rapidly.
15. Arachnoleptic Fit (n.): The frantic dance performed just after you’ve accidentally walked through a spider web.
16. Beelzebug (n.) : Satan in the form of a mosquito, that gets into your bedroom at three in the morning and cannot be cast out.
17. Caterpallor ( n.): The color you turn after finding half a worm in the fruit you’re eating.
I hear ya’…been probably remiss on this issue mee-self…
50.Comrade Nom Deplume says:
November 19, 2009 at 9:29 am
Disclaimer: does not constitute legal advice, nor is advice intended. Nothing herein is intended to create an attorney-client relationship. Commentator is going to STFU now.
The Washington Post’s Mensa Invitational once again asked readers to take any word from the dictionary, alter it by adding, subtracting, or changing one letter, and supply a new definition.
Here are the 2009 winners:
1. Cashtration (n.): The act of buying a house, which renders the subject financially imp*tent for an indefinite period of time.
2. Ignoranus : A person who’s both stupid and an a**hole.
3. Intaxication : Euphoria at getting a tax refund, which lasts until you realize it was your money to start with.
4. Reintarnation : Coming back to life as a hillbilly.
5. Bozone (n.): The substance surrounding stupid people that stops bright ideas from penetrating. The bozone layer, unfortunately, shows little sign of breaking down in the near future.
6. Foreploy : Any misrepresentation about yourself for the purpose of getting l@id.
7. Giraffiti : Vandalism spray-painted very, very high
8. Sarchasm : The gulf between the author of sarcastic wit and the person who doesn’t get it.
9. Inoculatte : To take coffee intravenously when you are running late.
10. Osteopornosis : A degenerate disease.
11. Karmageddon : It’s like, when everybody is sending off all these really bad vibes, right? And then, like, the Earth explodes and, it’s like, a serious bummer.
12. Decafalon (n.): The gruelling event of getting through the day consuming only things that are good for you.
13. Glibido : All talk and no action.
14. Dopeler Effect: The tendency of stupid ideas to seem smarter when they come at you rapidly.
15. Arachnoleptic Fit (n.): The frantic dance performed just after you’ve accidentally walked through a spider web.
16. Beelzebug (n.) : Satan in the form of a mosquito, that gets i nto your bedroom at three in the morning and cannot be cast out.
17. Caterpallor ( n.): The color you turn after finding half a worm in the fruit you’re eating.
79 nj welfare state
That should have been A-Rod beside Jeter.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1335288159&play=1
Charlie gasparino says Goldman needs to fire Blankfield. On CNBC? WTF is this world coming to?
Grim
A bit of light humor I think all would appreciate is awaiting moderation.
I’ve starred a few parts that may be tripping moderation but can’t get through the filter.
Definition:
Cashtration (n.): The act of buying a house, which renders the subject financially impotent for an indefinite period of time
Another ‘new’ definition:
Bozone (n.): The substance surrounding stupid people that stops bright ideas from penetrating. The bozone layer, unfortunately, shows little sign of breaking down in the near future
And…
Sarchasm : The gulf between the author of sarcastic wit and the person who doesn’t get it
Sean – you list alot of valid arguments for gld but the same can be said of any investment in fashion during any particular time range.
Gold absolutely crashed in value from 1980 to 1998. So does this mean that it was not a currency during this time period?
Also, you seems confident that we wont see deflation. The best economists in the world cant agree on this but you have it all figured out. Must be easier to figure out than all those guys with phds and lifes work in economics make it seem.
Not bashing your opinion. I respect that you have one. im trying my hardest to play devils advocate here.
Im holding increasing amounts of gold in my own portfolio but when any investment becomes such an obvious home run that you say to yourself… this cannot and will not – under any circumstance imaginable – decrease in value, that my friend is a bubble mentality.
JJ: Quality NYC-style humor….the rest of the country can’t keep up….
71.John says:
November 19, 2009 at 10:11 am
Well at least she can get into Hofstra University
“Until Central Banks don’t want it no more and start selling”
John,
That is so 1980-2007. Central Banks don’t make huge purchases for day trading purposes. This is part of a long term diversification; reserves. This is not done on the fly. World’s central banks, which were sellers, have become net buyers. India, one purchase, bought more gold than was sold all last year, not to wear around one’s neck.
You have been a naysayer for years. $500 is a top, it will never take out 1980’s high, $1,000 is a pipe dream. Blah, Blah, Blah. All it has done is close higher, yoy, since 2001.
Yes, there will be huge retracements, that’s gold. However, every retracement has resulted in higher lows, consolidate, then higher highs. Looks like a trend to me. Then again, I could be BIA, reading the charts upside down.
You wanted to short at $850, $950 and $1,036. If you were bearish then, you have to love today’s price. Step up to the plate, get short now. Assuming, you haven’t gone short and been carried out.
A bubble? Wait until you see this one. It will make dotcom seem like child’s play. Then again, the real bubble is monetary and fiscal policy throughout the world, excess printing of paper. Fiat currencies are prostituting themselves, a race to the bottom. Gold is only reacting.
Geithner getting a good old fashioned a$$ whooping by some Republican in the hearing.
Asks him tough questions, won’t let him answer, then provides his own.
One gem:
“I disagree with Mr Brady although I have the highest respect for him. You should not be fired, you should not have ever been hired.”
Timmmmaaaaayy!
“Gold absolutely crashed in value from 1980 to 1998. So does this mean that it was not a currency during this time period?”
Veto,
Actually 1980-2000.
Yes, it was a currency at that time. It’s nemesis, back then, was Tall Paul. There was no reason to own gold then. Bergabe vs Volcker?
Foreclosures hitting more people with prime loans
Delinquencies and foreclosures set 9th straight record in 3rd quarter as layoffs keep rising
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Foreclosures-hitting-more-apf-24626172.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
WASHINGTON (AP) — A rising proportion of fixed-rate home loans made to people with good credit are sinking into foreclosure, adding to concerns about the strength of the economic recovery.
Driven by rising unemployment, such loans accounted for nearly 33 percent of new foreclosures last quarter. That compares with just 21 percent a year ago, when high-risk subprime loans made during the housing boom were the main reason for default.
At the same time, the proportion of homeowners with a mortgage who were either behind on their payments or in foreclosure hit a record-high for the ninth straight quarter.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s report Thursday suggests the housing market and broader recovery could be thwarted by the continuing surge in home loan defaults, especially as the unemployment rate keeps rising. Lost jobs, rather than the shady loans made during the housing boom, are now the main reason homeowners fall behind on their mortgages.
After three years of plunging prices, the housing market started to rebound this summer. While optimists hope the worst is over, pessimists say there are simply too many foreclosed properties that have yet to be dumped on the market and expect further price declines.
BC – Last night I posted the Societe Generale doomsday scenario.
Agrees with you to a T.
Sean: If you wrote this from scatch, I don’t want to just bash it, because it is a good argument. However, all you need to do is pick a point in time and look at the asset that has the best return over the prior 10 year period. Then build essentially the same argument.
Two years ago, you could have wrote Potash or oil. Four years ago you could wrote real estate. Seven or eight years ago it was internet technology…the list goes on….probably 2 or 3 years from now it will be #####…..what’s that? It will cost ya’ :-)
82.Sean says:
November 19, 2009 at 10:46 am
Veto – Gold is another currency, simply because central banks around the world want to own and trade it they do not (the central banks) buy and sell anything but debt, fiat dollars and gold.
It is not in a bubble. Over the past ten years, thousands of Ivy League university trained money mangers, schooled in the “science” of modern portfolio theory, spent in aggregate hundreds of thousands of hours analyzing the stock market, rotating holdings from one sector to another, carefully selecting entry and exit points to maximize returns, costing untold billions in fees, all of them trying to beat the horrible -8% nominal return of the S&P 500 index over the last ten years.
Few were able to mimic the 260% return on gold they could have earned if they bought gold at the start of each year since 1998 and then did NOTHING else.
The ever expanding money supply is going to continue to expand (there will be no deflation) we are running a 1.4 Trillion dollar a year deficit and along with the ECB, China, Russia and everyone else they are attempting to print there way out of debt bubble. The central banks will continue to buy since they to want to hedge their exposure to to the US dollar with gold. This could go on for a decade or more. I would not call Gold a bubble, I would call it a hedge against inflation.
grim unmod
96.chicagofinance says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
November 19, 2009 at 11:06 am
Sean: If you wrote this from scatch, I don’t want to just bash it, because it is a good argument. However, all you need to do is pick a point in time and look at the asset that has the best return over the prior 10 year period. Then build essentially the same argument.
Two years ago, you could have wrote Potash or oil. Four years ago you could wrote real estate. Seven or eight years ago it was internet technology…the list goes on….probably 2 or 3 years from now it will be #####…..what’s that? It will cost ya’ :-)
82.Sean says:
November 19, 2009 at 10:46 am
Veto – Gold is another currency,
lisoosh [95],
Didn’t see that one. I’ll go back.
Thanks.
what could it be?
#95 – I saw the SocGen article this morning. Very interesting read. A recap for those who may have missed it.
“A bubble? Wait until you see this one. It will make dotcom seem like child’s play. Then again, the real bubble is monetary and fiscal policy throughout the world, excess printing of paper.”
BC – aka wise and worshipful master of the currency and commodity markets.
i agree with this description and even if i didnt i would probably yield to your opinion over the one i pull out of my @ss any day of the week.
Lish, good find. Friggen scariest article i have read to date.
Cant wait until the market starts crashing again and poeople commence the conversation about living in basements, bartering vinegar for rat meat.
From CR – MBA reporting %14.4 of mortgage loans delinquent or in foreclosure on Q3.
Forgot to post earlier in the week
(Fortune magazine) — Thanksgiving is upon us. That makes it a perfect time to contemplate turkeys — as in “What a turkey that deal was!”
http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/16/news/economy/bad_business.fortune/index.htm?cnn=yes
OT – Does anyone know if banks report to the IRS foreign wires received into individual accounts? Have a situation where a 1mm+ inheritance coming from foreign deceased to US relatives.
They will file a SAR on you. That most likely will not go to ITS. I would check OFAC site to make sure the country it is coming from is Kosher. Read the IRS pub on estate taxes.
http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:v4u61Q-JNlcJ:www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p950.pdf+2009+irs+estate+taxes&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESjyXuGG1-KOQDfbp719Q7lMxN5vD2-m0zaF-LSqODyvhgO0bPXMCSqQe8-W3aCz7Zk2Aef93SeraXmjUJ545KeVZABlv2jEy4KZblD_Y-jkI5p3CIPacAA7T1llCbSnVJt_pLAU&sig=AHIEtbR15rysw76s9GYg-BD-IXram88h2Q
#36
“I am trying to learn more about personal bankruptcy filings. I think it will be a great solo practice area, especially since the lawyer gets paid first.”
my understanding is that it’s a volume game. most people who declare BK don’t do so strategically. They are usually completely tapped out when they file, so even though lawyers get paid first, there isn’t a lot of money left.
SocGen: Prepare Yourself For the Worst Case Scenario
http://www.businessinsider.com/socgen-prepare-yourself-for-the-worst-case-scenario-2009-11#first-it-starts-with-sky-high-public-debt-1
PR Get it in Euros and open an account in the caman islands
A bubble? Wait until you see this one. It will make dotcom seem like child’s play.
BC,
Shhhhhh. To early to talk bubble. I promised not to use the world Bubble and Shiny in the same sentence until 2:1 relationship with DOW.
That’s when we start selling shiny and run for Mayor.
Grim,
I linked to the 68 page report but my post was removed. How can I share this with the board?
For all the talk of gold being an inflation hedge, how can we get rampant inflation if monthly housing costs keep going down. I don’t know about you but even if I accept my landlord’s rent increase, I’m only paying 2% higher than in 2007 and how many others are paying less in mortgage than 2 years ago whether existing or new homeowners?
I’m just still debating whether to buy gold or not but I’m not sold of the hyperinflation theory.
Veto,
from last night.
Have you ever gone all in and you got a straight flush before they flip the river. That’s how I feel about shiny.
Bergabe please raise me by keeping rates at 0% for a few more years. Omama just keep borrowing and spending.You’re the man. Timmy should provide an update on the stress test.Frikin Joke!!! The the World cetral banks let me know who wins on teh race to ZERO?
Best part of this is gonna be in 2015 when CNBC says that no one saw this coming.
2015 is closer that you think.
Sorry I just saw the SocGen article and posted
Did I just enter an alternate universe and see a partisan poltical job eliminated in New Jersey?
Democrats have given up on the idea of having a party member become Morris County’s Superintendent of Elections, saying they acquiesced to Republican Governor-elect Chris Christie, who wants the job eliminated to cut costs.
On Thursday, they removed Frank X. Herbert, a former Bergen County state Democratic senator who lives in Rockaway Township, from consideration for the job. Herbert had been nominated by outgoing Gov. Jon Corzine and was scheduled for a confirmation hearing in the state Senate Judiciary committee this coming Monday.
“For the good of the state, we have to support the new governor,” said Lew Candura, Morris County’s Democratic Party Committee chairman. “There is too much partisan politics out there.”
On Wednesday, Candura had accused Republicans of partisan politics because of their attempt to block the nomination. On Thursday, he said Corzine changed his mind after Christie reached out to him about the matter.
John Sette, Morris County’s Republican Committee chairman, said that he was unaware of the change.
“I do know that Chris (Christie) sent a letter to Jon Corzine asking him not to make appointments or spend money we don’t have,” Sette said.
Morris County freeholders, who are all Republican, had asked state legislators over the summer to consider proposed bills that would allow counties to eliminate the position of superintendent of elections. They said they wanted to consolidate the position into the bi-partisan board of elections to save money.
Freeholders previously removed $150,000 from the 2009 budget that would cover the salary and benefits for the job, which had been held for decades by RoseAnne Travaglia, who died last November.
“Best part of this is gonna be in 2015 when CNBC says that no one saw this coming.”
Make,
LMAO.
“how can we get rampant inflation if monthly housing costs keep going down”
Danzud, im no economist but my guess is that its algebra and more focus should be on ‘aggregate’ spending.
household spending + govt spending = aggregate spending.
Make [112],
Something like this?
“Ben S. Bernanke does not think the national housing boom is a bubble that is about to burst, he indicated to Congress last week, just a few days before President Bush nominated him to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve.”
“U.S. house prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two years, noted Bernanke, currently chairman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers, in testimony to Congress’s Joint Economic Committee. But these increases, he said, “largely reflect strong economic fundamentals,” such as strong growth in jobs, incomes and the number of new households.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/26/AR2005102602255.html
Danzud,
The cart is inflation. If you want to own gold, buy the horse. By the time the cart crosses the finish line, the trade will be over.
Make, i rarely have felt that strong about any investment and when i did, it usually went bust or under delivered. I hope for you its different this time.
I can appreciate your conviction. It takes guts to go all in but govt has proven they can manipulate the market – they can even manipulate reality if they want.
The buy shiny trade makes logical sense… in a vaccuum.
When you throw in all the other variables its not a no-brainer anymore.
Look at SRS, that was a no brainer. But reality has proved us all wrong on that trade.
I wont even mention the broader stock market or the 140 PE.
#117 – Ooops.
what is the horse? Miner stock?
Loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration also show increasing signs of trouble. More than 18 percent of FHA borrowers are at least one payment behind or in foreclosure.
Nothing to see here! No more writedowns coming.
12 Places to go if the World Goes to Hell:
http://www.businessinsider.com/ten-places-to-go-if-world-goes-to-crap-2009-10
RE: gold
The discussion around gold is starting to sound a lot like “Real estate only goes up!”
2010 – the charts you posted add a whole other dimension. Slide 5 in particular – looks like the rally might show a precipitous down side.
Qwerty [124],
Not exactly. During this run there have been pullbacks of 10-30%. That will continue. Thankfully, the market is liquid, deep open interest; unlike RE.
The revolution is beginning…it start as a ripple in college campus!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091119/ap_on_re_us/us_california_university_fees
re: #124 – Qwerty – gold is unlike a house I can get rid of my “investment” with the click of a mouse and not need to lever up with 30 years worth of payments.
Here is a nice link to some reset data:
http://www.realestateplanning.biz/images/imfresets.jpg
Real Estate In Trouble – Could A 2008-Like Decline Be Next?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Real-Estate-In-Trouble-Could-etfguide-2643275566.html?x=0
Freddie Mac’s (FRE: 1.14 -3.39%) weekly survey of average interest rates put the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) at 4.83% with an average 0.7 point for the week ending Nov. 12, down from the average rate of 4.91% the previous week. That’s a mere 5bps shy of Freddie Mac’s record low of 30-year FRM rates, reached twice in April this year. Last year, the rate was 6.04%.
Bankrate.com’s survey of large US banks and thrifts put the 30-year FRM at 5.06%, the lowest in the survey’s 24-year history and down 13bps from the previous week. The previous low on the Bankrate survey was 5.13% in April. Bankrate.com put the average rate for a 15-year FRM at 4.48%, down 13bps from the previous week.
http://www.housingwire.com/2009/11/19/freddies-weekly-mortgage-rates-near-record-lows/
Why the big spread? Are they not surveying the same banks? Does Bankrate’s survey not include FHA insured mortgages?
129: I’m thinking as those re-sets near, more and more debtors doing the math are going to spit the bit well in advance of the actual date.
Clot,
This one is for you.
http://www.businessinsider.com/ten-places-to-go-if-world-goes-to-crap-2009-10#dont-miss-13
[106] skep,
That is why marketing is so important.
I am not an expert in bankruptcy, but the folks you describe are the ones that, had they gone to see someone earlier, would be sitting on more assets after going through Chp. 7.
Anyone who is considering bankruptcy, and more folks consider it earlier now, should consult an attorney as soon as they think it could become a future problem.
The issue is that a lot of money movement, even legit transactions, could be seen as fraudulent conveyances. That is a huge pitfall, and one has to know how to navigate it.
Looks Great, when the GS, JPM, MS, Folk 2009 low priced restrict stock vests in 2011 they will be able to buy lots of great houses cheap.
Upsidedown says:
November 19, 2009 at 2:14 pm
Here is a nice link to some reset data:
http://www.realestateplanning.biz/images/imfresets.jpg
So if I read those charts, a whole bunch of fun should be happening in 2010 and 2011 with those option resets…. Am I reading this right? Is there another leg down coming becuase of all those resets? If yes, you’re buying shiny way too early.
Guliani running for Senate in NY (not governor). Maybe the approval numbers for the fraud occupying Penn Ave finally convinced him that anybody not affiliated with Obambi will win.
Rasmussen: 46%
Quinnipiac: 48%
Fox News: 46%
Gallup: 50%
State Media has The Chosen One in mid or high fifties. I guess these numbers are for Stu.
Exodus from Maplewood?
http://www.southorangevillage.com/vc/comments.php?DiscussionID=46279&page=1
Ref 110. You can read the whole depressing report at Zero Hedge.
“Am I reading this right? Is there another leg down coming becuase of all those resets? If yes, you’re buying shiny way too early.”
[136],
Way too early?
Would you rather wait until 2015-2016? Every year since 2001, it has traded higher, yoy. Do we require 10-15 year’s action to determine the direction of trend?
RE: Maplewood link above
From page #3:
“Still figuring it out while we work day in and day out to pay our equal payments of taxes and mortgage. There is no where else to trim the fat from in order to live a humble existence in our fair town. Now the problem is selling a house when the market is not in our favor. Can’t afford to not sell, but can’t afford to sell when we wouldn’t make it out with a new down payment. I am stuck.”
Bc,
You’re silly buying shiny this early in the game. As a matter of fact, everyone should short it. I wish it get to 8 handle again so that I can use some more rent money and buy some more.
I have offially stopped making pmnts on 3 properties.
On the Maplewood forum, I was particularly amused by the person who was delighted to pay high taxes so that his kids could experience the true “diversity” of Maplewood. Couldn’t he just move to a low tax town and kick his kids out of his car in downtown Plainfield every Saturday afternoon? Or make some “diverse” friends and invite them to one’s house.
Also amusing was a poster who claimed that cutting expenses down to the bone would only reduce taxes by “a pair of shoes” per year. I’m guessing lots of government employees post on that forum.
I guess this song wouldn’t play well in Maplewood:
http://www.southparkstudios.com/clips/256710
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/3645940
GREAT GOLD ARTICLE
make-
stopped making payments on 3 properties?
what’s the plan? are you going to allow these properties to go foreclosure ? or are you just trying to get better terms?
142: Just whip out the Centurion, no? Hope it works out. If our rents drop again or our weak link ptrs can’t swing their share, we’ll have to consider punting. Funny thing, that spreading the risk among ptrs.
gator (53)-
You guys are way too early to the party. The fun hasn’t even started yet in your hoity-towns there.
I never was an advocate of this, but I’d let those sellers rot through the Winter, then hit ’em in April with a reduced offer.
Those guys are idiots and deserve to be wiped out.
“Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for potential ‘global collapse’”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6599281/Societe-Generale-tells-clients-how-to-prepare-for-global-collapse.html
dink (62)-
Bloomfield is an indefensible shithole. Uncle got out of there years ago. It just got way too dangerous.
All the Indians I know in Edison all want to ditch their houses and move to Bridgewater so they can one-up their friends.
So there are really rats, as in rodents, with long tails and beady eyes, all over Maplewood and the town does nothing about it? Yikes. Where’s Clot with his arsenal when he is needed? Are BB guns okay in NJ? Buncha 14 yr old boys with Daisy’s, five bucks a rat…problem solved.
Gold just sits there. It simply IS.
Good times.
Clot 148 – Don’t tell Stu, but I think I love you!
stater (152)-
Ever see a rat hit by a hollow 30-30 round?
Just put it in a pan, and add water; makes its own sauce.
danzud (111)-
Gold isn’t really an inflation hedge, and it’s certainly not how the smart guys are playing it now.
Gold is a play against horrible monetary policy of ALL types. When gold does well historically, it is always against a backdrop of inept monetary policy. That why it works in inflationary and deflationary envirnoments.
BC (115)-
IN 2015, CNBC will either:
a) not exist
b) not reach the part of Chile where I live
Jayson Williams to serve a minimum of 18 months, will plead guilty to aggravated manslaughter as opposed to facing another trial in January.
correction “aggravated assault”
Clot,
Change NASCAR with CNBC in your dead pool.
150- Bloomfield. Friend of mine has lived there for years. What a change there has been over the years. Her next door neighbors are really scary people with scary dogs. I will never go back there again to visit her unless I am forced to.
Combination:
The end is nigh…..
AND
JJ check this out….
WSJ
CREDIT MARKETS
NOVEMBER 19, 2009, 2:54 P.M. ET
GE Capital Enters Sukuk Market
By KATE HAYWOOD And ROMY VARGHESE
NEW YORK –General Electric Capital Corp., GECC, the finance unit of General Electric Co. sold its first sukuk Thursday, the biggest Islamic bond ever from a U.S. company, and said it intended to raise more funds in the Shariah-compliant debt market in the future.
GE Capital, the world’s biggest nonbank finance company, sold $500 million of the five-year bonds, which priced at a spread of 175 basis points over U.S. Treasurys, a banker familiar with the transaction said Thursday. That is only a little bit more than GE Capital paid earlier this month when it issued $1.5 billion of five-year non-Islamic bonds at 155 basis points over Treasurys.
Nutley has an interesting idea, $25 per incident fine for parents whose children get detention.
Human fat sells for 15k a gallon in Europe. hmm. Another way to balance the budget?
http://www.smh.com.au/world/arrested-for-killing-people-to-sell-their-fat-20091120-iphs.html
164: Also has other uses, see Fight Club.
#137 Jamil
Ok, just for the record are you saying that Rudy is a great candidate for the GOP who will bring true conservtive values to the republican ticket, or is he one of those Dede Scozzafava loving moderates who are soft on gays and guns and have no right running as a true Republican.
Or are you waiting for a spin pack from the Liptonites.
Clot,
My friends are taking it well.
“the hand is quicker than the eyes of an entire FIFA refereeing crew, right Thiery? A proud day for la belle France no doubt – a tradition of placing your hands in the surrender position finally pays off”
“U.K. Royal Mint Quadruples Gold-Coin Output as Investors Chase Diversity
Is it really diversification into gold if everyone buys in at once or just the next bubble?”
Gold may be the next bubble, but it needs to go up a few thousand dollars before you can even call it that. Everyone can’t buy into gold at once…there isn’t enough for everyone. Dollars on the other hand? They keep making more.
#155 LOL! Maybe a little cabernet in the sauce? Now if only game would explode into individually wrapped freezer packages the moment they were hit!
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Schumpeter says:
November 19, 2009 at 8:41 am
What to do when the mall is home to packs of feral dogs?
What to do when the gas stations on Rt 22 are controlled by armed gangs?
lmao
c’mon clot, you’re going to scare the newbies!
Comrade Nom Deplume says:
November 19, 2009 at 8:44 am
If I were venal and smart, I would park my funds in untraceable accounts in the carribean, live from paycheck to paycheck, and if TSHTF, declare bankruptcy, stop paying the mortgage, and collect unemployment and other bennies.
at the next GTG, please come with detailed plans of how to make use of these ‘untraceable accounts’ in the carribbean.
171
I think I want to be untraceable in the Caribbean.
I saw my first “Gas & Go” rip-off today.
Some clown in an SUV filled up with regular, and when the attendant goes to collect the money….the driver sped away from the pump and down the highway he went.
The poor gas station attendant didn’t know what to do. Didn’t even get his license plate number. A tankfull in an SUV might just put this clown in Grand Theft territory.
A Sign of the Times.
just woke up… to this:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/grayson-remarks-passing-paul-grayson-amendment-well-full-list-voters
:)
Halle*f*cking*luyah
Passage of the Paul-Grayson amendment.
was driving home after a shitty night in the pit listening to Timmmmmmay getting slain… Mmmmm I love the smell of fried failed policy-maker in the morning.
sl
Gold can’t be manipulated? Couldn’t a DeBeers-like scenario take place here?
RON PAUL
RE: delighted to pay high taxes so that his kids could experience the true “diversity” of Maplewood
The Kool Aid is quite strong in NJ. Guaranteed those on that post who said they’re leaving would stay if they were $200 ahead each month. They’re only leaving because practically they’re forced at gunpoint by massive debts and taxes.
Or, in English:
They’re only leaving because they’re practically forced at gunpoint by massive debts and taxes.
Just saw that damn Lou Dobbs on TV with my favorite news personality, Larry Kudlow. Me and Larry are in lock step with our thinking, he’s a brilliant man. That damn Dobbs doesn’t know what he’s thinking. He was okay when he criticized the tax and spend Obama administration, but pissed me off when he tried to accuse Bush of the same damn thing. He doesn’t know what damn political party he belongs to and he’d damn well better choose one or the other. He sounds like a conservative and then gets real apologetic about the stinking liberals.
I don’t trust nobody who doesn’t know how to choose sides. There ain’t no damn middle ground, he’s either with us or against us.
I was shocked to see all this talk about unions saving jobs on this board over the last few days. A damn union will ensure that you’ll lose your job–just look at the lack of union jobs for evidence.
The best thing to support more employment is a damn tax cut. Tax cuts create jobs.
50.5,
Larry Crudelow wants the fed to raise rates to protect King Dollar. Music to a RE Terrorist’s ears. Actually, bring in Tall Paul, blow the doors off the hinges.
50.5,
There’s a new stimulus package on its way, including a federal tax holiday. You’ll be rolling down the red carpet for O.
[171] yikes
“at the next GTG, please come with detailed plans of how to make use of these ‘untraceable accounts’ in the carribbean”
No
lost:
11-19-2009, 05:09 PM
Andrew Fletcher confirmed officially that the Dvd of Tour of the Universe will be recorded in Barcelona 20th and 21th november.
Check the setlists….
I really liked your blog! I have added you to my google news feeder.
I really liked your blog! I have added you to my google news feeder.