Tue 24 Nov 2009
October Northeast Sales Jump 25%, NY Metro Only 5%
Categories: Economics , National Real Estate , New Jersey Real EstateFrom the NY Times:
Northeast Home Sales Soar 25 Percent in October
ome sales in the Northeast soared in October as first-time buyers clamored to close deals before the expiration of a federal tax credit.
The nine-state region registered 85,000 home resales last month, up 25 percent from a year ago when the financial crisis gripped the country, the National Association of Realtors said Monday. The median price, however, fell about 3 percent to $235,400.
Nationally, sales of existing homes jumped almost 21 percent from October last year, without adjusting for seasonal factors. The median sales price tumbled 7 percent to $173,100.
The surge in sales came as many first-time homebuyers rushed to qualify for an $8,000 tax credit that was scheduled to expire at the end of this month before Congress extended it through April.
…
”The only reason we’re seeing good numbers is because of government policies that are propping the market up,” said Patrick Newport, an economist with IHS Global Insight. ”Housing is still fundamentally weak.”All nine major Northeast cities tracked in the Associated Press-Re/Max Monthly Housing Report showed annual increases in home sales last month. The report, also released Monday, analyzed sales transactions in the metropolitan statistical areas recorded by all real estate agents, regardless of company affiliation.
Here are some highlights from the region:
–Biggest sales gain: Trenton, N.J., saw sales climb by 45 percent from a year ago. Prices there continue to fall, tumbling 11 percent year-over-year to $231,500.
Lower-priced homes between $150,000 to $350,000, are leading the brisk sales, said T. Christopher Hill, an agent with Re/Max TriCounty in Hamilton Township, N.J., thanks in large part to the first-time homebuyer tax credit.
…
As for November? Hill predicts a strong sales month, but the numbers won’t be as high as September and October.
…
– Smallest sales gain: Sales in the New York City suburbs increased 5 percent in October, while the median price lost 3 percent to $385,000.Despite lagging in the region, the performance was a step up for the area which has been battered by job losses in the financial sector.
…
–Biggest price gain: For October, Pittsburgh prices inched up 2 percent from a year ago to $118,000, the only price increase in the region. Sales there rose almost 11 percent.”We weren’t invited to the party, so we don’t have a hangover,” said Dan Kite of Northwood Realty Services, explaining the relative stability of Pittsburgh’s home prices.
According this mornings WSJ - nearly 25% of home owners are underwater.
Is the Oct home sales # going to be a 1-2 month thing. Anyone want to predict when mtg rates will start to climb?
From Ritholtz:
Existing Home Sales (SA) Surge on Cheap Condos
Existing-home sales gained in October on a monthly basis as prices fell and cheaper homes predominated sales. Elevated inventory levels also declined.
Existing-home sales gained 10.1%, reflecting in large part an outsized seasonal adjustment. Sales were 23.5% above the 4.94 million-unit level in October 2008, when the collapse of Fannie, Lehman, AIG, Bank of America and Citigroup had paralyzed the nation.
Median existing-home price was $173,100 in October, down 7.1% from October 2008.
The biggest gains were found in the cheapest homes – especially condominiums and co-ops. Their sales surged 13.2% (seasonally adjusted) and were up an astonishing 40.8% above a year ago. Median prices for condos fell 10.4% below October 2008.
From the WSJ:
1 in 4 Borrowers Under Water
he proportion of U.S. homeowners who owe more on their mortgages than the properties are worth has swelled to about 23%, threatening prospects for a sustained housing recovery.
Nearly 10.7 million households had negative equity in their homes in the third quarter, according to First American CoreLogic, a real-estate information company based in Santa Ana, Calif.
These so-called underwater mortgages pose a roadblock to a housing recovery because the properties are more likely to fall into bank foreclosure and get dumped into an already saturated market. Economists from J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said Monday they didn’t expect U.S. home prices to hit bottom until early 2011, citing the prospect of oversupply.
Home prices have fallen so far that 5.3 million U.S. households are tied to mortgages that are at least 20% higher than their home’s value, the First American report said. More than 520,000 of these borrowers have received a notice of default, according to First American.
Most U.S. homeowners still have some equity, and nearly 24 million owner-occupied homes don’t have any mortgage, according to the Census Bureau.
But negative equity “is an outstanding risk hanging over the mortgage market,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist of First American Core Logic. “It lowers homeowners’ mobility because they can’t sell, even if they want to move to get a new job.” Borrowers who owe more than 120% of their home’s value, he said, were more likely to default.
NJ at 15.4% negative equity
From Bloomberg:
Home Prices in U.S. Probably Fell at Slowest Pace Since 2007
Home prices in 20 U.S. cities probably fell in September at the slowest pace in almost two years, underscoring improvement in real estate that’s helping the economy emerge from recession, economists said ahead of a private report today.
The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index declined 9.1 percent from September 2008 after an 11.3 percent year-over-year decrease a month earlier, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Separate reports may show consumer confidence slipped this month on weaker employment prospects, while third-quarter economic growth was slower than first estimated.
Rising home sales, aided by government programs and a decline in mortgage rates this year, have helped stem the slump in property values that precipitated the worst recession since the 1930s. Home buying and consumer spending may still be hindered by higher unemployment.
“It looks like some kind of corner has been turned in the housing market,” said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics LLC in Pepper Pike, Ohio. “It will take time for more people to line up. That said, I do think housing has turned.”
The home-price report is scheduled to be released at 9 a.m. in New York. Estimates ranged from declines of 8.3 percent to 10.3 percent.
“It looks like some kind of corner has been turned in the housing market,” said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics LLC in Pepper Pike, Ohio. “It will take time for more people to line up. That said, I do think housing has turned.”
Looking at a longer time horizon than a couple of months, how can the housing market have turned?
More resets coming, foreclosures continuing, unemployment is going to continue to rise.
Based on supply and demand alone, this seems impossible unless a lot of people are going to buy assuming in a few years they can sell at a nice profit which I doubt.
Grim and others, can you enlighten me.
One other thought - is there any evidence to show that people are being more financially conservative when they buy houses now and purchasing homes that are less expensive than they “qualify” for?
Clunkers for banks?
“Every single bank in Japan, the US, Germany, Spain, and Italy included in S&P’s list of 45 global lenders fails the 8pc safety level under the agency’s risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio. Most fall woefully short.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/6638922/Most-global-banks-are-still-unsafe-warns-SandP.html
” purchasing homes that are less expensive than they qualify for”
It strikes me that a HUGE percentage of people in NJ are very hung up on status and in projecting to the world an image of outsized financial success. The cars many drive often seem selected as a method of projecting an image; likewise, it seems that many buy homes that are too expensive for their means just so they appear to have greater means. Unless the root issue of feeling it is somehow important to project greater financial success changes, I don’t know that folks will make any meaningful changes to overextending to purchasing homes.
BC,
How can that be? Geithner said they all passed the stress tests!
BC,
It is more like Clunkers for the Prudent.
At the Buffalo Springsteen show, I overheard a conversation where the woman was saying it was so “unfair” that the credit card company is hounding her to pay down her maxed-out card. Why? “I didn’t know I was going to get laid off.”
“The biggest gains were found in the cheapest homes. Their sales surged 13.2% and were up an astonishing 40.8% above a year ago.”
If CS metro shows price appreciation this morning i will most likely vomit.
And the hits keep on coming. Another group of lobbyists eligible for a NJ pension. First thing Christie needs to do is rid all the pension system of all these bloodsuckers. The sense of entitlement is just amazing!!!
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/11/taxpayers_help_fund_new_jersey.html
pete (12)-
Hate to be the broken record, but anybody who doesn’t understand fully that these leeches are our sworn enemy only helps create an environment in which the enemy can thrive.
And they are, indeed, thriving.
“At the Buffalo Springsteen show”
Shore [10],
At least she’s utlizing her unemployment $ for a worthwhile purpose.
Where’s the recession?? Where’s the 10% unemployment?
Northeast Home Sales Soar 25 Percent in October
RE, my video was shot on 11/10, and was up on the tube for only a week or so.
Couldn’t find legal references for filming while driving or whether or not digital cameras can be classed as text devices in MD. So I didn’t want to push my luck. But the people who needed to see it, saw it.
Stuff about real estate, restricted development zones (actually had to read some studies with Schumpeterian philosophy tossed about like salad), cyclical nature….Oh, and cycling opportunities on country roads strongly influenced my choice of which side to be on.
But I think my selective use of search terms entry on BOE Websites may have helped more than the video. An observer-type of person can witness a lot of atypical behaviors [empire-building] going on behind the scenes of a school closing. Such behaviors may or may not be legal under union rules, and pointing that out to certain officials can’t be a bad idea, right?
Someone has some explaining to do….
Car crash preceded jump into Navesink by Fair Haven fire chief
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/11/car_crash_preceded_jump_into_n.html
Pat (16)-
Destroy the machine, by any means necessary!
Fight the power.
Clot, you told me once to tread lightly. Ain’t ever gonna happen. Just have to accept myself the way I am and live friendless.
Could be worse.
“Where’s the 10% unemployment?”
Frank,
For the 1st time, I agree with you. It’s well over 20%.
14 BC Bob-
PA pays unemployment benefits with a Visa debit card. Since I worked part-time at a retailer over the summer, I was able to see what people used these cards to purchase. I could not believe that those out of work, or in the best case scenario recently hired, that were buying expensive sunglasses, sports jerseys, and designer sweatshirts.
Re has turned????? LOL
#21 - thats because people have completely lost touch with reality and there are so many safety nets that take away accountability.
We should pull all this crap and if people overspend, let them hit the pavement hard and get their bell rung good.
I am personally sick of paying for the mistakes of others who exhibit poor judgement and show little self restraint.
There was a time that if you F—– Up, it was your own ass. Now, it’s someone elses and of course, the person who screws up can’t be accountable because its the; banks, credit card, ad agency… fault and I never would have spent the money if THEY had not…
Maybe what we need in this country is a bit of tough love.
Schumpeter (13) We’ll see if Christie was serious about cleaning up Gov’t. Besides elimination of some jobs in Trenton, he needs to stop allowing part timers and the lobbyist from being eligible for a state pension. The sad thing is, you know some politician allowed them into the pension system in the first place as a “political” favor. The next group that needs to be exposed is the Palisades Parkway Commission. One of Whitmans relatives is on the board and he gets a free house in Alpine b/c the house is on Palisades Parkway property.
#8 I don’t know that folks will make any meaningful changes to overextending to purchasing homes.
That will be determined on whether they now qualify or not for the mtg to over extend themselves.
BC,
For as much criticism as i got for my unemployment projections ( and i got some serious heat after it got published) back in april, my “low” model is turning out to be pretty close to the real numbers so far….
http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/weightloss/2009-11-23-college-obesity_N.htm
Fat students must take a nutrition class to graduate college.
Small step in the right direction.
Either Christie comes out swinging, or he’s just another soci@list tool who’s part of the problem.
#20 BC Bob: There is a recession in franks’s thought process.
Frank,
Time to buy before you’re left behind.
“It is hard to imagine anyone wanting to live or invest in a city wracked with violence, but the capital of Afghanistan is experiencing a boom in real estate prices which defies the downward trend for property in many other parts of the world.”
“According to local estate agents, prices in some parts of Kabul have risen by 75% in the past year.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8342200.stm?ref=patrick.net
PO 23-
I defining moment in the way I handle finances was when I took out a cash advance on a cc in college to buy a car. I didn’t know the consequences and I was smacked around with interest for about six months. I had to work it out and it certainly affected the way I use a cc. I have not carried a balance on a card in almost 20 years.
“At least shes utlizing her unemployment $ for a worthwhile purpose.”
I wonder if she was one of the people who flew in for the show?
3rd quarter GDP revised down to 2.8% from 3.5%.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-third-quarter-economic-growth-revised-to-28-2009-11-24
#33 And that is with all the gov’t stimulus.
Here’s a story of how life works if our government keeps going the way its going, as the government enforces its “we’re all in this together” code.
“Do you know how it worked, that plan, and what it did to people? Try pouring water into a tank where there’s a pipe at the bottom draining it out faster than you pour it, and each bucket you bring breaks that pipe an inch wider, and the harder you work the more is demanded of you, and you stand slinging buckets forty hours a week, then forthy-eight, then fifty-six - for your neighbor’s supper - for his wife’s operation - for his child’s measles - for his mother’s wheel chair - for his uncle’s shirt - for his nephew’s schooling - for the baby next door - for the baby to be born - for anyone anywhere around you - it’s theirs to receive, from diapers to dentures - and yours to work, from sunup to sundown, month after month, year after year, with nothing to show for it but your sweat, with nothing in sight for you but their pleasure, for the whole of your life, without rest, without hope, without end … From each according to his ability, to each according to his need …
“We’re all one big family, they told us, we’re all in this together. But you don’t all stand working an acetylene torch ten hours a day - together, and you don’t all get a bellyache - together. What’s whose ability and which of whose needs comes first? When it’s all one pot, you can’t let any man decide what his own needs are, can you? If you did, he might claim that he needs a yacht - and if his feelings are all you have to go by, he might prove it, too. Why not? If it’s not right for me to own a car until I’ve worked myself into a hospital ward, earning a car for every loafer and every naked savage on earth - why can’t he demand a yacht from me, too, if I still have the ability not to have collapsed? No? He can’t? Then why can he demand that I go without cream for my coffee until he’s replastered his living room? … Oh well … Well, anyway, it was decided that nobody had the right to judge his own need or ability. We voted on it. Yes, ma’am, we voted on it in a public meeting twice a year. How else could it be done? Do you care to think what would happen at such a meeting? It took us just one meeting to discover that we had become beggars - rotten, whining, sniveling beggars, all of us, because no man could claim his pay as his rightful earning, he had no rights and no earnings, his work didn’t belong to him, it belonged to ‘the family’, and they owed him nothing in return, and the only claim he had on them was his ‘need’ - so he had to beg in public for relief from his needs, like any lousy moocher, listing all his troubles and miseries, down to his patched drawers and his wife’s head colds, hoping that ‘the family’ would throw him the alms. He had to claim miseries, because it’s miseries, not work, that had become the coin of the realm - so it turned into a contest between six thousand panhandlers, each claiming that his need was worse than his brother’s. How else could it be done? Do you care to guess what happened, what sort of men kept quiet, feeling shame, and what sort got away with the jackpot?
“But that wasn’t all. There was something else that we discovered at the same meeting. The factory’s production had fallen by forty percent, in that first half year, so it was decided that somebody hadn’t delivered ‘according to his ability.’ Who? How would you tell it? ‘The family’ voted on that, too. We voted which men were the best, and these men were sentenced to work overtime each night for the next six months. Overtime without pay - because you weren’t paid by time and you weren’t paid by work, only by need.
“Do I have to tell you what happened after that - and into what sort of creatures we all started turning, we who had once been humans? We began to hide whatever ability we had, to slow down and watch like hawks that we never worked any faster or better than the next fellow. What else could we do, when we knew that if we did our best for ‘the family,’ it’s not thanks or rewards that we’d get, but punishment? We knew that for every stinker who’d ruin a batch of motors and cost the company money - either through his sloppiness, because he didn’t have to care, or through plain incompetence - it’s we who’d have to pay with our nights and our Sundays. So we did our best to be no good.
Continuing the above story, today the details are different, but the basic story is the same. Someone else gets to live in a house they cannot afford, the difference paid by my taxes. Someone else get’s to max out their credit cards and their default is covered by my taxes. All via the treasury bailout. So all of a sudden, I wonder why I’m working so hard to save, while others don’t even feel the need to bother. “Somebody” will bail them out, and unfortunately, that somebody is me.
The spendthrifts and lazy are rewarded, and supported by those who are not.
AMR CORP DEB 10.00000% 04/15/2021
CUSIP 001765AK2
Yield to Worst (Ask) 19.885%
Price (Ask) 56.000
Bond of the day. Now how do you rate a company that default is based on if we have an extended recession, oil prices shoot up or we have another 9-11?
Where’s the housing recession??
Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Rise for Fourth Straight Month
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBYsOGnlOaBw&pos=3
I give credit for pure balls….check out these back to back paragraphs…..
12.pete says:
November 24, 2009 at 7:58 am
“We run a very austere organization,” said Carpiano, a former School Boards Association lobbyist who took the counties job in 1994.
Carpiano is the only association employee with a company car: a $35,000, four-wheel-drive 2008 Lexus for about 30,000 miles a year of business travel. “The association leases an automobile,” according to financial statements prepared by its accountant, but Carpiano said the foundation makes the payments, so the car is no expense to taxpayers.
Has anyone else noticed the increased peppering of positive RE market spin from radio, internet and television sources?
I must have heard “the market is turning” a dozen times of the last few days. They let it be for a few months and then got back to talking it up recently. I could see an uptick in cheap condos as the never rent crowd “takes advantage of the generous tax credit” but that’s about it.
Thoughts on the other well publicized myth that job losses will peak 1Q10?
Another friend got laid off from financial services the other week.
Good times!
#39 frank: Here are the pertinent points frank ,did you read it?
The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index increased 0.27 percent from the prior month on a seasonally adjusted basis, after a 1.13 percent rise in August, the group said today in New York. The gauge fell 9.36 percent from September 2008, more than forecast, yet the smallest year-over-year decline since the end of 2007.
Its weird, they are not releasing the excel data sheet so i cant see if they adjusted aug or july but this is what i see…
NY Metro
January 2009 180.93
February 2009 177.84
March 2009 173.59
April 2009 170.67
May 2009 171.15
June 2009 172.36
July 2009 173.94
August 2009 174.89
September 2009 174.38
Chi-Fi - My pick less than two weeks ago at 25, today a sell, 100% return. The waters are choppy and people “day trading” bonds, OMG the world is coming to an end.
AMBAC FINL GROUP INCDEB 9.37500% 08/01/2011
Price Quantity Date/Time Buy/Sell
51.500 1,000 11/24/2009 09:22:12 –
[39]
An increase of 0.27 percent from the prior month and a decline of 9.36 percent, yoy. In an environment of declining prices, govt bribes and subprime FHA, it’s actually abysmal.
42- 3B, are you quoting national?
I am seeing that NY Metro prices are down .3% from Aug to Sept.
#46 I was quoting national, but either way, the numebrs look dismal IMO.
#345 BC Bob: There you go. This info goes right over franks head.
3b [42],
He’s simply an ignoramus. He is bullish yet continually posts bearish articles.
the association makes the payments so
no cost to the taxpayers. Never never land
, must have been trained by Rangle
So the CS index says prices inched up a bit.
How can you have a continuing high rate (and still growing level) of unemployment, a slew of mortgage resets in 2010 & 2011 that are going to drive more homes into foreclosure and people really thinking the housing market has made a real turnaround.
WTF are people thinking or are they so desparate for a bit of hope, they are seeing things that don’t exist.
#40 That’s a lowball on the Lexus truck. More like $45,000 not $35,000
My buddy down south is trading up, cramped in his 4,500 sq ft house he is moving to a 9,000 sq ft house. Dual income household and two kids in school. Sounds like it is empty five days a week but for sleeping. Turns out he said with all the foreclosures and low rates people are moving up again. That is crazy, who needs over 2,250 sq ft per person, 2,250 sq ft is bigger than the homes most of us grew up in.
Yep its conmfirmed. On a NSA basis NY Prices are down .3% in NY Metro from Aug to Sept.
We have begun the next leg down.
Frank, Prices are down.
The recession is in right there in your face.
That is crazy, who needs over 2,250 sq ft per person, 2,250 sq ft is bigger than the homes most of us grew up in.
John,
Let the player play.
Make Money, he is not a player, second wife wants house twice as big as first wife. Funniest thing was his first wife was about to leave him but before she did talked him into vascetemy, said it hurt like crazy and he had frozen peas on his nuts for three days. Then on 4th day wife dumps his butt, Made him snip his pet sausauge out of spite. That is nasty.
“cramped in his 4,500 sq ft house he is moving to a 9,000 sq ft house”
John, there is a bubble in home sizes.
There is also a bubble in people’s heads to think they need that much space but im prob just jealous and bitter because i cant afford 2,000 sq ft in nj.
gotta love this. The biggest home data release of the month and nobody has anything to say.
But lets bring up health care and you cant read the posts fast enough.
hope everyone has a nice thanksgiving week!
cramped in his 4,500 sq ft house he is moving to a 9,000 sq ft house
Alright, stop. You’re just blatantly making this up.
I’m currently in an 1800sq ft house by myself and have no idea of what to do with 3 of the 4 bedrooms.
2 people in 4500 sq ft is only cramped if you have a bus collection or keep elephants as pets.
58 - just remember, big houses are distractions. people who live in them can’t stand each other or themselves.
ruggles, i keep repeating that in my head to feel better about myself. ha.
60 - “have no idea of what to do with 3 of the 4 bedrooms”
1.meth lab
2.porn studio
3.reading nook
#59 - Fair enough, but it’s all data sets we’ve seen before. MOM increase with a YOY decrease, rinse and repeat.
We all know where the spike in sales is (entry level) who is responsible for it (FHA) and where it’s leading (3% down? Haven’t we seen this play before? ).
I suppose the question is; how much longer the FHA can continue running the game that they are? Their reserve levels were reported at .5% and this spike in sales sure won’t help that. It’s really just delaying the inevitable.
I should also note credit card delinquencies were up again.
You are right though, health care gets to be a tiring issue.
60 - “have no idea of what to do with 3 of the 4 bedrooms”
1.meth lab
2.p0rn studio
3.reading nook
#58 veto: because i cant afford 2,000 sq ft in nj.
You will.
The biggest home data release of the month and nobody has anything to say.
Veto -
Honestly, what do we discuss about housing anymore? This board is way ahead of the curve, we are all doomed out. We all know that government will do everything to keep house prices up and the bankers happy. We all know that this is temporary.
If you cannot afford a house right now, don’t buy, simple as that. Only buy when it makes sense owning vs renting and you have a stable job.
He spent more time on the links than GWB did in his first year in office and for what?
Obama sucks at golf.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125900966061461145.html#mod=todays_us_nonsub_page_one
I have empty rooms in my house now. I like them empty, but it freaks people out and they are always trying to give me their old stuff.
#68 - The empty rooms did make it easy to be really lazy about unpacking. I have about 2 dozen boxes I still haven’t unpacked a year later just sitting in one of the spare rooms.
#66 - staple job, guess I’ll never own a home again. If you know where I can get a stable job, I’m all ears.
long time lurker, occasional poster, but need a pep talk. When do you think this madness is going to end? I still feel like people are being ridiculous with pricing. I’m ready to list my pos cape for what it is worth today, not for what it was worth in 2006. When will other sellers figure it out? Are there really that many people in nice towns who sucked so much equity out of their homes that they just cannot afford to list for less than they owe? I would think that people who managed to buy homes in nice towns have a little more financial acumen than most, but maybe I’m wrong.
More eminent domain news in NY.
ALBANY, N.Y. — New York’s top court says the state can use eminent domain to force homeowners and businesses to sell their properties for a massive development in Brooklyn that includes a new arena for the New Jersey Nets.
In a 6-1 ruling Tuesday, the Court of Appeals says the Empire State Development Corp.’s finding that the area was blighted was enough to justify taking the land.
A group of tenants and owners claim the seizure is unconstitutional. They say developer Bruce Ratner’s proposed $4.9 billion, 22-acre Atlantic Yards project mainly enriches private interests, while the state constitution requires public use for taking land.
Ratner’s proposed development includes office towers, apartments and a new arena for the NBA’s Nets.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iMQoDk_E-LH4fGe5W6IDSWq5km7wD9C5VB100
#66 I am much more concerned about property taxes than prices. Prcees are falling in spite of all govt attempts to prevent them from falling. Property taxes are another reason.
Alos any one who has bought in the last few years or plans to buy, can forget about housing as a so called investment.
At best when you go to sell in 15 20 yrs etc. you may get what you paid for it.
#71 Are there really that many people in nice towns who sucked so much equity out of their homes that they just cannot afford to list for less than they owe?
Yes there really are that many people who have. The stories are astounding.
Don’t be fooled by the so called better town, more educated people, make better financial decesions. That is a bunch of nonsense. they were/are in many cases the wannabees.
The people who know the value of a buck, many of them with just a basic education, many times make the better financial decesions. I have seen it time and time again.
it’s good to see these positive stats now that i’m 4 days in my new purchase in cherry hill. kidding of course.
some anecdotes from my short tenure as a home owner.
- met two neighbors raking leaves this weekend and was shocked that both had the same initial questions: “what is your last name and what do you do for a living”? i think they were slightly upset that i was not a ‘berg, goldman, cohen or a doctor. but a hell of a way to “pre-qualify” the new neighbor - geez…
- i called the tax assessor’s office to find the appropriate channels to appeal and was first given the typical bureaucratic run around but finally spoke to someone who was silenced by my stats and general strength of cause for appeal. i’ll take that as a positive first step.
- actually shocked with the overwhelming sense of pride and accomplishment when i pull into my driveway. i worked hard to get to this point and feel truly fortunate to be able to afford a home to raise my family. investment/liability argument aside, there is a such a gratifying and rewarding feeling to finally come home to “my” place and not someone else’s.
#73 Should be property taxes are another story.
75: There goes the neighborhood.
#60
You’ll be needing those extra rooms for your elderly parents. With no more SS and their pensions and retirement incomes blown away, who do you think is going to take care of them? YOU.
You all better start planning for it now. I have my 90 yr old FIL with me now. I’m lucky because he’s a pleasant enough guy. He has more than enough money to be in assisted living but is terrified of “the home”.
After him, I’ve got an 85 yr old stepfather, 75 yr old mother and 76 yr old father waiting in line for their “convelescent home at the shore”.
For as much work as it is to have an elderly semi ambulatory guy around the house, he has brought a sense of family, history, respect, and love to our home.
75: Oh, and good luck w/ the new place.
Interesting - maybe there is hope for NJ after all.
“New Jersey voters support 75 - 21 percent, including 70 - 26 percent among Democrats, a wage freeze for state workers to help balance the state budget, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today, three weeks after Christopher Christie toppled Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine. A wage freeze wins 75 - 20 percent support from independent voters and 79 - 16 percent backing from Republicans. Voters in union households back a wage freeze 62 - 33 percent.
Garden State voters also support 61 - 33 percent layoffs for state workers to help balance the state budget, ”
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1399
#73 - I am much more concerned about property taxes than prices
Certainly a problem with regards to long term affordability.
Increasingly my long term concern is the price of energy (read: oil) and how that affects the ongoing viability of the American suburb as a whole.
Tossing salad???
Lady, I’m not surprised that they removed this “video” after a week. Hell, they should have never allowed it to be posted in the first damn place.
Needless to say, I shocked at this behavior.
16.Pat says:
November 24, 2009 at 8:19 am
RE, my video was shot on 11/10, and was up on the tube for only a week or so… the people who needed to see it, saw it…(actually had to read some studies with Schumpeterian philosophy tossed about like salad…..)
@77 hahaha! i forgot to mention a bag of cookies in my mail box w/ a little note from sol and rebecca welcoming me to the neighborhood. i really didn’t think people did that in real life, just movies. it was very thoughtful. perhaps i’ll refrain from installing my christmas lights this year. ;-)
Bear Stearns, Lehman Execs Kept Billions . . .
Everyone knows that senior execs at Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers were paid largely in stock, and that they lost most of their wealth when the companies collapsed, right?
Turns out, not so much:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/bear-stearns-lehman-execs-kept-billions/
#81 Here is a case in point. The taxes on this 50+ year old house are over $11,000 per year. And the house needs work. The realtor has since taken the address off the listing after I posted this example a few weeks ago.
I think there are realtors lurking on this blog, because this listing and others that used to have the address listed have since removed the addresses from the listings.
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2943318&id=999999
84 - we got zucchini and banana bread when we moved to chatham (pre bubble). those turned out to be the biggest pain in the a** neighbors. in everyone’s business.
Coast, fully expect that with my inlaws. The wife and I have adjusted our home purchase to provide them with a place to stay while they are commuting between Upper NY state, North Carolina and Florida for obligatory grandchild visiting. This should allow them to sell their Woodland Park home. We get built in dog sitters for 80 days out of the year, my MIL is an awesome cook and and free use of the cabin in upstate for skiing/impending armaggedon.
Tosh,
my opinion is that at this point and most likely for the next 5 - 10 years, the affordability of energy will be driven primarily by the value (or lack there of) of the US dollar. The global depression is going to keep a lid on demand baring a major war, but the race to debase global currencies is going to make energy ever more expensive even as incomes stay flat.
The double whammy will be when currencies finally stabilize energy fundamentals become dominant effects.
Very Good Read:
The Reprioritization of Consumer Debt
A fundamental cornerstone to the American financial system has been the belief that, in good times and in bad, consumers would pay their mortgage first and everything else second.
Recent data no longer support this.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/print.php?a=25610
83: It is a nice feeling. We were “Boo’d” on the night before Halloween. Someone left a bag of treats after ringing the doorbell and running. I’m told it’s supposed to be anonymous. Anyway, I was a bit geared up for mischief night, and after that story posted here about the guy who avoided the would-be-murderers a while back, I don’t know if I was exactly in the proper frame of mind anyway. I need to chill out, but I feel like I’ve swallowed the red pill reading this blog and can’t go back.
All this nice neighbor stuff makes me sick to my stomach.
I wanna line my yard with Claymores.
[90] relo
I hear Agent Smith will give you good terms, a memory wipe, and put you back into the Matrix.
[91] clot,
I propose that the Nompound and the Clotpound seek a strategic alliance.
[91] clot
That way, you don’t frag my nice neighbors by accident.
And my liberal friends (yes, PGC, I have a few) get a pass as well. No fragging.
91: Clot, does having to navigate the droppings of two large dogs before we get a chance to pick up count for anything?
plume (93)-
The best defense is a good offense. I do hope you believe in pre-emptive attacks.
Look how well it’s done for the US.
[83] 2ndary
Or you can do what I did: Invite them to your holiday party, and have kosher hors d’ouveurs for them. If they are good neighbors, they won’t mind the Xmas stuff.
[96] clot
Keep friends close.
Keep well-armed, slightly psychopathic, drunk, soccer hooligan real estate agents closer.
relo (95)-
Anti-personnel is a way of life, not just a tactical device.
I need some more h0pium.
92: Nom, I don’t miss the taste of steak that much, nor have any aspiations to be someone important, like an actor.
plume (97)-
Next GTG, I’ll tell you my son’s story about the cheese-allergic kid whose mom brought bacon pizza into the synagogue for him.
It involves theft, outdoor banishment, humiliation and a puking cantor.
[87] pain
If you have room for a substantial garden in upstate, you have a Nompound!
plume (98)-
Blandishing me with compliments will get you nowhere.
[102] clot
In Philly, I met a cantor whose last name was Kanter.
True story.
[104] clot
In that case, I will launch a pre-emptive napalm attack (sorry, without Kettle, I can’t make my own nukes).
My shore house is a duplex and my father owns the other unit. It’s great. Steady strem of visitors and meals until Labor Day. However I could never, ever live with my in-laws. Packrats and trinket collectors.
105: Nom, in FL I met a tax attorney named Kanter.
[101] relo
Mmmmmm. Steak.
(okay, enough fun. back to the billable hours).
[108] relo
Not as funny.
#83 Secondary - I would fire up 25k twinkling lights with the Animatronic singing Frosty the Snowman.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8VCgE4QgV8&feature=related
110: Not funny so much as amusing. thought you might know the name.
Nom, Clot,
I propose that the Nompound and the Clotpound seek a strategic alliance.
Is dual membership available?
Relo @101
How do you know your oatmeal doesnt real taste like steak?
NY Metro
January 2009 180.93
February 2009 177.84
March 2009 173.59
April 2009 170.67
May 2009 171.15
June 2009 172.36
July 2009 173.94
August 2009 174.89
September 2009 174.38″
So Veto, didn’t we see the same trend last year where there was a slight uptick in prices in summer, then prices resuming their decline in September?
“he association makes the payments so
no cost to the taxpayers”
Humm. Hummm. Where does the NJSBA get its operating funds. Largely from membership dues and training program fees.
First the dues: School districts are mandated by law to belong to the NJSBA, unlike nearly every (it may be every) other state where membership is voluntary. I wonder where the school districts get the money to pay the dues. Hummm. That is a tough one. It will come to me in a moment. Ahhh, yes. Now I remember: Property taxes and State aid — and the state aid comes from the state’s budget that gets funded by, say it with me now, TAXES.
Okay, but the NJSBA also raises money by putting on training programs. Who goes to these? Why, lo and behold, it is school board members and school administrators. And the money to attend these training programs comes from? My gosh, it is the same source as the dues. Egads! Who would have thunk it?
Now they do make some money by selling space to exhibitors at their annual Atlantic City “Workshop,” but, then again the group makes huge amounts from the board members who pay registration fees to attend. And those exhibitors? They are there to sell products to the boards, but that money probably comes from the state, so it does not cost taxpayers anything.
If one googles “NJSBA” and “State Commision of investigation” and “misuse,” I wonder what one would find?
Clotpound? Is that home of the Clotting Factor?
Nom,
Might i suggest you mix a liberal amount of thermite and magnesium shavings into the napalm.
The rain of fire is so much more fun when you cant put the flames out and they burn hot enough to liquefy metal
(Note: practice extreme caution, you cannot extinguish this hellish mixture and it burns underwater or in an oxygen free atmosphere)
Note: this is a joke and i am a highschool janitor who do es not know what they are talking about. do not attempt anything as this is purely fictional
Nom 54 acres but I have only identified about 4 tillable on the whole property. Good adirondack rocky soil. It is one of only two houses on the resevoir, and has been plan B for a while.
Hey Ket did you notice the 30% cost tax credit on wind turbines, solar energy, and Geothermal heat pumps. Talk about a government subsidy, if I can combine that with the 8K tax credit. I may get uncle sam to subsidize my off the grid lifestyle by 50%.
114: Whatever you want, Mr. Reagan.
It’s official: FDIC is bust…
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/scope-fdics-dif-slips-not-so-quietly-beneath-waves
sl
Relo,
I always wanted to be someone important….. like a movie star.
pain 119
sweet didn’t notice that.
here you go Ket
http://www.energystar.gov/index.cfm?c=tax_credits.tx_index
“So Veto, didn’t we see the same trend last year where there was a slight uptick in prices in summer, then prices resuming their decline in September?”
Schivo, yes thanks for bringing that up. Indeed we did. Although not as extreme as this year, June and Aug of last year showed strength and followed a similar trend.
Here are the MoM % Changes….
Month | NY Metro | MoM % Change
April 2008 194.73 -0.91%
May 2008 194.22 -0.26%
June 2008 194.74 0.27%
July 2008 193.70 -0.53%
August 2008 193.48 -0.11%
September 2008 191.66 -0.94%
October 2008 189.67 -1.04%
November 2008 186.52 -1.66%
December 2008 183.46 -1.64%
January 2009 180.93 -1.38%
February 2009 177.84 -1.71%
March 2009 173.59 -2.39%
April 2009 170.67 -1.68%
May 2009 171.15 0.28%
June 2009 172.36 0.71%
July 2009 173.94 0.92%
August 2009 174.89 0.55%
September 2009 174.38 -0.29%
The important news: Omama spent more time on the links than GWB.
“And those exhibitors? They are there to sell products to the boards, but that money probably comes from the state, so it does not cost taxpayers anything.”
Shore, I dont disagree with your point.
But i know that the exhibitors pay through their nose to attend these conventions. And the conventions are almost mandatory for any entity who wishes to do much business with any local govt or school board.
The only thing i dont know is how much of the convention fees actually go to NJSBA because AC convention center exhibits are all run by unions and they charge $1,000 just to set up a booth. and if you want an extra power cord, that will cost an extra $400, etc etc.
Hey Frank,
Trulia.com shows 19 listings in Hoboken with at least two bathrooms and greater than 1,000 square feet for UNDER $400,000.
If that doesn’t define a recession to you, why not and why don’t you buy all of them and become an instant millionaire in your mind?
#21 d2b -
PA pays unemployment by debit card? Well if that isn’t encouraging profligate spending. It acts and looks pretty much like a credit card, except the bill never comes. How do you pay rent on debit card (esp. if it is private party, mom & pop type of place)? That’s probably the intent - to encourage people to keep spending. And to track purchases.
HeHeHe: I am grabbing a steak with my buddy from high school in Hoboken. Obviously we have graduated up the chain in terms of where we eat, but we are both 41 and his wife is expecting her third kid on 12/18. Do we hit Arhtur’s for old times sake or do we go elsewhere, and what is the new elsewhere in Nov 2009 in Hobroken? I am strongly leaning (no pun intended - REALLY!) toward Arthur’s….
Comrade Nom Deplume says:
November 24, 2009 at 11:55 am
[101] relo Mmmmmm. Steak.
Veto,
I have not seen their books, so I don’t know, but the more important point is that most of their budget is funded by taxpayers. It may be filtered through one subdivision or another first, but it is mostly tax dollars funding everything — including the weekend in Paris a former Executive Director and President spent some years back and which resulted in an investigation of financial mismanagement.
I guess it doesn’t matter how one spends money, as long as it comes dues and not taxes — wink wink.
“Hey Frank”
danzud [128],
You lost him there.
http://www.state.nj.us/sci/pdf/annual30.pdf
chicagofinance
Gotta go Arthur’s. In case you get a crazy urge for liverwurst. Could happen. If you go to the Nag’s Head for a great pint of Guinness tell 1999 hello for me.
Shore, I dont know for sure.
Keep in mind that any business or vendor that wants to do business with local govts or school boards has to join as an associate member and the fee is about $500-1000 per year per person.
Also, realize that there is very long list of vendors that pay this annual fee. The schools and town halls are constantly being bombarded by vendor salesman of all types - copy machines, school busses, soda machines, cafeteria contracts, bankers looking for their deposits and to underwrite their bonds, turf sports field contractors, Insurance companies, the list goes on and on and they all want to shake hands with the business administrator and they are willing to pay the annual dues and they all pay the big fees to go to the conventions. but again, i am not sure if they take tax dollars or not. I suspect that each school district pays the cost of each of their business administrator to attend the convention and stay in hotels and also a daily food allowance of some type - and that is praobably part of every local school board budget in every town because each business administrator has to attend in order to earn annual educational credits to keep their license active.
[118] Ket
I don’t need a visit from those nice men from DHS with earpieces that match their white shirts and black tie/suit combo.
More on that left hand-right hand thing:
“But she said the earnings improvement was counterbalanced by the largest decline in loan balances on record, indicating that banks are still being tight-fisted with credit.
“We need to see banks making more loans to their business customers,” Bair said.
Weelllll, they would if your regulators weren’t telling them to STOP MAKING LOANS!!!!!
#130 ChiFi
Dino and Harrys (used to be Frankie and Johnnies) or 3Forty for an upscale steak.
ONeils or Black Bear for a good bar steak.
Arthurs can be hit and miss on the steak, if you get a bad one, its bad, but you can’t beat the Big Beer.
RayC says:
November 24, 2009 at 12:58 pm
chicagofinance
Gotta go Arthur’s. In case you get a crazy urge for liverwurst. Could happen. If you go to the Nag’s Head for a great pint of Guinness tell 1999 hello for me.
Ray: I lived on 1st & Clinton from 1998-2002….we went to Nag’s Head when it first opened…..it was like our living room…as was Zack’s. I remember nothing but chain-link fences from the Jefferson Trust to old car wash…
And my liberal friends (yes, PGC, I have a few)
And you love them anyway. I’ll send you the picture of my friends with Chris Christie on election night.
Needed more space with another kid coming soon, so just signed a lease on a nice house for far less than it would cost to buy. Houses like this one I’m renting are sitting on the market at 30% to 35% above what the rental market would justify. They can continue to sit for all I care. I kinda like having my fat savings stash and not being tied down to NJ. Now when I see real estate listings, I just laugh. Not that I wasn’t laughing before, but now it’s a totally care-free kind of laugh.
About the NJSBA, according to the NY Times, in 1990 80% of its budget came from dues. Add to it fee for service policy, labor negotiation service, training, etc. — all of which, in the end, are paid for by taxpayers — one can begin to see the folly of the executive director saying her car doesn’t cost taxpayers anything.
http://www.nytimes.com/1990/04/28/nyregion/trenton-panel-suggests-ouster-of-school-aide.html
What the curret financia structure is, I don’t know but I doubt it differs substantially, at least in terms of percentages.
PGC says:
November 24, 2009 at 1:03 pm
#130 ChiFi - Dino and Harrys
PGC - it was what I was thinking….it was where we went last time….actually, the bacon potatoes are better there than Luger’s…which is a f-ing trick….
Arthur’s steak on Tuesday and Turkey and everything else on Thursday is definitely punishing your stomach. I never liked the Hoboken Arthur’s. Besides, you can find better talent to look at in other places in town.
How does a townhouse in Basking Ridge qualify for 100% USDA financing?
http://www.trulia.com/property/1086175259-193-Irving-Pl-Basking-Ridge-NJ-07920
From the listing
WOW! RARE FIND USDA APPROVED FOR 100% FINANCING! UNIQUE 3 Bedroom townhome is set in private neighborhood!
There’s an organic farm a mile or 2 away. Is that the basis?
http://www.njsba.org/PI/report/SCN_2004081011400500000004.pdf
Shore here is one of their cafrs
As i suspected, they cover the majority of their operating funds from annual dues and the convention. i see no direct state aid to speak of. But like i said i think some of the dues and conventions may be part of the local school board expenses. Although minimal, anything tends to add up when multiplied by 600. Ive attended many NJSBA functions in the past and i can say that i never saw any abuse of any kind.
Also, from my experience, the sci report is a 100% politically motivated charade - they make all conclusions before any of the investigations are even started.
“We need to see banks making more loans to their business customers,” Bair said.
Sorry Sheila. Blame a positively sloped yield curve. Why risk making a loan when one can buy treasuries, earn the positive slope and not have to worry about examiners. Close up the lending dept.
I have no reason to believe that anything “improper” occurs at any NJSBA event. That said, every dollar boards spend — whether dues, or training for board members, or hotels in AC for multiple board members to attend the convention (the precentage of board members attending is very high, as are the costs) all comes from taxpayers. The NJSBA may not be a line item in the NJ budget BUT those board funds come from taxpayesr nonetheless. Every single dollar may be well spent, but that is NOT the issue. The issue, as this taxpayer sees it, is the ED taking the position that her car is not a cost to taxpayers.
Shore, Im not defending them and i dont know everything about them. but i do want to stress that the vendors provide alot of their revenues.
They also do a semiannual magazine and hit up the dues paying vendors for another $1,000 in order to put their advertisement in there. Its optional but they get alot of advertisements.
I just saw that as part of their revenues in the financials.
Secondary
If the jews in Cherry Hill seem a little anxious that you are a gentile, don’t take it personally. South Jersey is a dicey mix and they fear the white trash factor. Take a ride into main street, Maple Shade on a Saturday night. You’ll see.
safe (145)-
If the township is on the USDA list, all housing there is eligible.
It’s a very old program & the eligible list was drawn up decades ago.
Veto,
I am not in a position to read the financials right now but, I strongly doubt that over 50% of their revenue is from non-taxpayer sources.
Clot,
Is there a good source of town that qualify, by state?
Veto,
Are/were you a school board member.
Sorry I beat you to this, James.
From The Business Insider, Nov. 24, 2009:
The FDIC fund that insures bank deposits is $8.2 billion in the hole.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. released its latest set of grim banking data moments ago. The FDIC had to set aside $21.7 billion for expected losses on future bank failures as the total number of “problem” banks rose to 552 from 416.
There were glimmers of hope. While bad loans continue to beat up bank balance sheets, revenues are returning to the banking sector. Overall, the banking sector was profitable after a $4.3 billion loss in the second quarter and saw just $879 million in earnings last year.
#151 clot
Thanks for the info. Didn’t know it went on a town by town basis.
Shore, please shoot me. Im confusing NJSBO with NJSBA. They are both smiliar and sister organizations.
NJSBA is for board members and they ALL go down to ac to take a few classes and politic once per year. This is where alot of entertainment happens and i do see waste here although the classess do seem effective. But each school board has to send about 5-10 people, including the BA so yes this is a big expense for the local school board.
NJASBO is the other one for School Business Administrators and this is pretty respectable since each school board is only sending down one official per year the cost is not nearly as much and most of the BAs are so bombarded with pay to play restrictions that you cant even buy them a donut. But at the same time you can filter thousands of dollars to politicians - thats ok. Must be nice to write the laws.
Second try:
Shore (153)-
Here’s the list: http://www.rurdev.usda.gov/nj/eligarea.html
I used to be a big advocate of this program, but it’s mostly underwritten through JPM, and their underwriting standards are water t0rture.
USDA is actually able to lend their own money. The trick is to get the app into one of their field offices’ hands and get them to underwrite.
shore (153)-
Getting moderated for something. Here’s the list:
http://www.rurdev.usda.gov/nj/eligarea.html
Shore (153)-
Trying to give you the link to the list, but I’m getting moderated.
118
Nom,
its just a joke, the same as clots claymore lined yard. I am no EOD guru
“I strongly doubt that over 50% of their revenue is from non-taxpayer sources.”
For the school business administrators my guess is that it is well over 50% - but i cant say for sure.
For the School Boards, i really dont know and i cant find their financials on their website.
I was never a board member.
you can just bet that all of these boards
whatever they are are shoving it to the
taxpayer ,,
Shore, Check this out. its to your point.
Also, for the record, i dont agree with giving pensions to these organizations.
N.J. taxpayers fund pension benefits for non-government employees
Taxpayers are giving $1.3 million a year to 62 retirees of three Trenton organizations: the League of Municipalities, the School Boards Association and the Association of Counties, records show. That’s in addition to the roughly $7.5 million in local and county taxes handed over for the groups’ annual membership dues that pay the six-figure salaries and cover operating costs.
None of the three associations is part of state government. Privately run, they were granted pension rights by legislators decades before New Jersey entered a fiscal crisis that is leading to an estimated $8 billion structural deficit.
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/11/nj_taxpayers_pay_millions_in_p.html
Designer sweatshirts. What a commentary on our trailer park society. Take a look at the Beringer video on Zero Hedge. We are doomed.
Veto 162
The “when” is irrelevant. Why are state pensions being granted to private groups at any point?????
chicagofinance
I lived on Newark and Park 2000-2. My second stint on the bokey-boke. So you know Barney? He ran a great bar. Took great care of the Guinness, the DARTS, and let attractive bartenders learn on the job. God bless him.
“Why are state pensions being granted to private groups at any point?”
Kettle, i agree with your question. Please note that was part of the article, not my commentary.
I was initially defending the fact that we dont know excatly or roughly how much the taxpayer is paying for these organizations. Also, some of the dues are being used in a legitimate manner to educate board members and BAs. I can attest to that.
Im not saying to put the torches and pitchforks away, but only to get the facts straight before using them on an innocent person trying to do his/her job. Having said that, there is probably some amount of abuse in there somewhere, i can just smell it.
Veto 166,
not attacking you, just saying.
Hoboken steaks- ate at the W hotel steak place. It was just ok,and it was just opened, but the talent was nice. Too pricey for its fare in my opinion.
Dino and Harry’s is a good spot. Arthurs isn’t so good. Actually had a good steak at the Brass Rail not to long ago.
My retail prediction is for a strong weekend this week but lower sales overall. Only 4 Saturdays until Christmas I think it will sneak up on people.
I’ve been told what to buy and I’m so sick of shopping that I will spend little else. Keep a little extra cash in the bank because my bills seem to be going up even though they tell me there is no inflation.
Recession may be over but it does not feel like a recovery.
“Why are state pensions being granted to private groups at any point?”
Ket, we all know the real answer to this. When the economy was flying high and home prices were up 15% per year, everyone was ok with the expense of govt workers. Ok, give them a pension and a 5% raise, go ahead, even if my taxes go up by another 1,000 per year. Who cares when all jobs pay over $100K and the price of my 50 yr old cape is going up $30,000 per year. Even with all of those pensions and raises, the govt worker was a lowly hourly worker who made less than average.
But then the ominous recession hit and everyone is out of work because the cdos exploded and state revenues have shrivelled and of course now everyone wants to know why my taxes are so darn high all of the sudden? Well the answer is, they have been high all along.
This is someone’s idea of a damn joke that will be the cause of many shlting their damn pants. No one should be allowed to write stuff this damn scary. This guy really needs to be detained.
Even assuming this crazy fictional account could happen, we could prevent it with a damn tax cut.
The Day the Dollar Died
by John Galt
November 18, 2009
The following story in italics is a potential fictional time line for the day the dollar died. I hope not to instill fear or loathing but to give everyone some perspective on a POSSIBLE outcome which does not really take much of a reach to come to any conclusion. Despite popular belief and promises from those who wish to rob you of your savings and investments, the collapse of the dollar might just be an event measured in hours, not days as their control is not what it seems…..
Mike was less than an hour from home in Minnesota after dropping his load off in Fargo but knew he needed to top his tank off this Sunday evening to insure his rig would make it home. He pulled into the Petro Truck Stop just outside of Fargo and hopped out of the cab into the bitter twenty below temperatures which he could not believe had already hit at ten o’clock at night. He slid his fuel card into the pump waiting for the next prompt when the “SEE ATTENDANT” message flashed in the screen. He blustered, figured it was another card problem and whipped out his Master Card and slid it in after the pump reset and again the “SEE ATTENDANT” message flashed up. “What the hell is going on?” he thought to himself as he wandered into the long line of drivers boisterously yelling at managers and clerks alike.
Tom finished up his shift on the docks at the Nestle warehouse in Hampton, Georgia at exactly 11 o’clock at night and decided that because of the scuttlebutt he had been reading on the message boards, it may not be a bad idea to pick up a few cans of food and some toilet paper at the local WalMart Super center. Even though it was a Sunday night, they were always stocked and it was just five minutes out of the way to his home. As he walked inside the store, his mouth dropped. It looked like the day after Thanksgiving sale with every register open and ten plus people deep at 11:30 p.m. “Oh my God!” he gasped as he walked in grabbing the last shopping cart with the wheel that was half locked up. As he walked as fast as he could to the aisle with the paper goods, he looked at all the shelves then noticed the clerk who looked stunned himself. “How in the SAM HELL does WalMart sell out of Toilet Paper son?” he screamed at the eighteen year old kid. “Sir, I don’t know what is going on. Is the world ending? I’m a little freaked out!” the clerk stammered. Tom realized that he was not to blame and as he calmed down said to the kid “Son, I don’t know what is going on either. It must be an ice storm on the way. Are you folks getting another truck soon?” The clerk said in a very low voice “Sir, I think there are two coming at 2 a.m. I would wait here if I were you.” With that information Tom slinked outside to his car and called his wife at home just before midnight to tell her he would be staying to wait on the WalMart trucks.
1730 ET…February 21, 2010
It was a typical Sunday night in my household, a tremendous dinner, nice weather in Florida and of course a chance to chat with my friends online about the events of the world. The big news was that on Friday, February 19, 2010 the US Dollar Index closed at 69.07 far below any level in history and of course shattering all known technical support. As I grabbed a glass of Port and settled in front of my computer at 5 p.m. Eastern to watch the Asian fireworks and watch Bloomberg and CNBC-Asia on my computer, I noticed the Middle Eastern markets closed in horrid shape. The Israeli market closed three hours after the open and down 22% for the session. The Saudi markets closed after one hour and down 41%. Other regional markets did not open or were shut down due to national emergency declarations. As I tuned in expecting the usual repeat on Bloomberg, it was live with a somewhat excited news babe reading information from a blog reporting “rumors” that the CEO’s of Citigroup and Bank of America were in meetings since 11 a.m. with the New York Fed. At that point, it was time to put the port up and break out the hard stuff.
Gold had closed at a record high again, up some $37 to finish Friday’s session up at $1289 and change so I figured it would be jumping again with all of this worldly instability on display. I searched the boards and feeds like mad, looking for anything on an Iranian attack or outbreak of war elsewhere in the world but nothing was found at all. As 6 p.m. Eastern flipped up on my watch, CNBC interrupted their programming with a live update from New York instead of Australia or Tokyo about the meeting at the NY Fed. Bloomberg also broke from their Asian coverage with a brief story but no details as to why there was a meeting today or who else was there. As the New Zealand markets opened, the prices went nuts but shockingly to the upside. Their markets shot up 11% on the open to break over the 3900 price level but that was not the story. As the futures opened in Chicago for the evening session, no matter where you were in the world that day or night, you printed that screen at 6:04 p.m. Eastern time as the prints were staggering:
Gold UP $212.15 to $1501.15
Silver UP $39.13 to $81.06
US DOLLAR INDEX DOWN 9.5869 or just over 14% to 59.4830
US S&P FUTURES DOWN 49.13
US DOW FUTURES DOWN 472
NASDAQ FUTURES DOWN 135
Holy Smokes! This was an absurd way to start the night and my phone started ringing along with text messages and emails out my wazoo. The sense of panic was evident on Bernie Lo’s face as he came on to the air discussing what was happening in the futures market and fortunately he announced that Jim Rogers would be joining him after the next break. As the commercial started at 6:09 p.m. Eastern the scroll at the bottom of the screen was bright red with the headline:
ALL U.S. EQUITY FUTURES ARE LOCK LIMIT DOWN…..TRADING SUSPENDED UNTIL 0900 ET MONDAY FEB 22….US DOLLAR BEING SOLD ACROSS THE BOARD
By 6:15 the Euro was trading at $1.92, the Kiwi (New Zealand Dollar) at $1.26, the Aussie Dollar well beyond par at $1.39 and the Canadian Loonie rocketing past par to $1.33. The U.S. Dollar was in a full fledged collapse and the world was putting money anywhere they could to escape the carnage. As the New Zealand equity markets struggled to handle the order flow an announcement emerged at 6:27 p.m. Eastern time that they would no longer accept U.S. dollars within their nation for the next 72 hours until the United States Federal Reserve Bank introduced stability measures. That instantly turned a huge move to the upside to down 17% in less than three minutes and soon thereafter, trading was suspended by 7 p.m. Eastern time. Instead of waiting to see what was next, I left at 6:51 p.m. to run down the street and take $500 from the local grocery store ATM, returning just in time for the top of the hour news.
1900 ET
The Australian markets attempted to open but due to order imbalances they were delayed twenty-seven minutes. It was a buying frenzy in Australia also as the Aussie Dollar was skyrocketing higher and gold continued to gain, now up $273.20 per ounce in less than two hours of trading. The Chicago board was going to make a statement at 8 p.m. ET and the world was holding its collective breath because something bad was happening again in the United States and everyone wanted to buy into foreign markets to escape the American disaster on the horizon. After a brief opening, the Australian government followed suit with the New Zealand announcement and suspended acceptance of the U.S. Dollar for commerce until further notice. The Japanese were very quiet in the mean time as they announced at 7 p.m. they would keep their markets closed but the huge move in the Yen caused massive concerns as noted by the central bank. The yen appreciated from a close of 79.8213 on Friday the 19th to an opening of 48.7326 in less than an hour of trading. Nobody wanted dollars and even fewer people it was discovered wanted the British Pound. The Pound for the first time in its history was worth less than 100 yen and it was well on its way to joining the US Dollar in a death spiral
http://johngaltfla.com/blog3/2009/11/18/the-day-the-dollar-died/
Just read the FDIC will need additional gov’t $$.
And for those in the market for a new ride, looks like you might be able to buy a Saab at a liquidation sale. K-sigg bailed on the deal.
#164 The better question is what politician allowed it and what did he/she get in return?
Black Friday new Benz deal.
Mercedes dealers are being offered $10,000 in cash. Dealers will be discounting SLK350s by about 22% on average.
[140] PGC
Here’s a story you will love: 2 summers ago, some of our closest (and most liberal) friends rented a beach house with us. We agree to disagree and not talk politics.
Older child, then only child, was on my lap, and we were watching the news. She then turned and said to me “Daddy, what’s a socia1ist”?
The dirty look I got from my friend was priceless.
And yes, we are still friends—going over their house for T-day, and their child is having a sleepover with ours.
And here is the real rub, PGC: I recently learned that said liberal friend is armed, and he has offered to go in on the Nompound with me!!!
Does that make him a DINO? ;-)
And when we gonna have that throwdown, anyway? 12/4 still work?
50.5 [171],
It’s bullspit. In this scenario, gold would be much higher. Are you trying to pull a damn joke on me?
[113] kettle
“Nom, Clot,
I propose that the Nompound and the Clotpound seek a strategic alliance.
Is dual membership available?”
Well, the idea behind a strategic alliance would be to insure reciprocity, so dual membership would be redundant.
Besides, I distrust the Clotocracy, and would want superior numbers sworn to my allegiance, just in case we need to repel the horde from Knob Creek (distillery) with the horde from Knob Creek (other side of town–you know).
Wow 50.5 actually contributed something worhtwhile. Even though I think it will be a slow grind to oblivion, I never took into account the information age. If this scenario plays out I will be eating popcorn on the dock of the cabin with the Tv outside. Might as well watch the world burn in the wonders of nature.
[176] BC
Damn bullspit!!! Now get back to work.
What would have happened to the equity markets if the GDP had been revised up by 25% instead of down by 25%?
Many, many business that buy goods overseas are really getting crushed by the weak dollar.
[171] re
nice scary story, that. One of the commenters posted this, which got my attention:
“What surpised me was walking through the aisles in my local Supercenter is how much of our food is imported, from canned goods to fruit cups. When the dollar is worthless what will companies use to purchase these goods. I believe alot of folks will be seeing major weight loss programs beginning next spring.”
Well if it’s bullspit, tell the jerk who wrote this crap to take it back and disavow the whole damn story.
I had to throw away a perfectly good set of damn slacks after reading that crap…..
176.BC Bob says:
November 24, 2009 at 2:59 pm
50.5 [171],
It’s bullspit. In this scenario, gold would be much higher. Are you trying to pull a damn joke on me?
50.5 [181],
The rest was pretty much on target. The currency markets will blow the whole thing up.
Distressed Homeowners Ponder Whether to Stay or Go
by James R. Hagerty
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
provided by
Brian Gindlesperger says he has never been late on a mortgage payment and considers paying off his loan “the right thing to do.” But as the value of his home continues to fall, he is starting to wonder whether paying his debt is the smartest thing to do.
Four years ago, Mr. Gindlesperger, a police officer, and his wife Kelly, a real-estate agent, paid $650,000 for a four-bedroom house in this wealthy Phoenix suburb. They believed they were getting a bargain price for the area and made a 20% down payment, using a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to pay the balance. To help pay for their eldest daughter’s college costs, home improvements and a wedding, they took out a second mortgage against their home. Now they owe about $647,000 on the two mortgages.
http://finance.yahoo.com/loans/article/108229/distressed-homeowners-ponder-whether-to-stay-or-go?sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=
Police Officer buying in wealthy neighborhood? Realtor stretching in a bubbly market? Sounds familiar.
My current employer took a beating on currency exchanges last year. Thought it was odd when I first heard it then I realized a lot of our excepients are sourced overseas. That raised a big red flag.
Yeah, there’s another part that real scary too. Here’s an excerpt:
As he walked as fast as he could to the aisle with the paper goods, he looked at all the shelves then noticed the clerk who looked stunned himself. “How in the SAM HELL does WalMart sell out of Toilet Paper son?” he screamed at the eighteen year old kid……
There’s a frequent poster here that would likely make an assault on the corn cob aisle in the those circumstances. Of course, I won’t name any names…
All kidding aside, I agree that there is a lot of stuff imported including food. That would be particularly worrisome in a dollar collapse. We all sort of look in the rear view mirror assuming that the way things worked in the past will also be the near term future and sometimes stuff can happen very quickly, so in that sense the story could be quite plausible in how things might play out. Of course, no one wants to see that happening.
180.Comrade Nom Deplume says:
November 24, 2009 at 3:18 pm
[171] re
nice scary story, that. One of the commenters posted this, which got my attention:
“What surpised me was walking through the aisles in my local Supercenter is how much of our food is imported, from canned goods to fruit cups. When the dollar is worthless what will companies use to purchase these goods. I believe alot of folks will be seeing major weight loss programs beginning next spring.”
by the way you always have something to wipe your bum with, it is called water and a towel. Wash and repeat.
Look, I’m afraid you don’t understand. The offending poster fully knows about other “options” in this regard, but has a perverse fixation on corn cobs….
186.Painhrtz says:
November 24, 2009 at 3:37 pm
by the way you always have something to wipe your bum with, it is called water and a towel. Wash and repeat.
#171 Even assuming this crazy fictional account could happen
If the possibility scares you that much wouldn’t have to oppose tax cuts? I mean, less tax revenue means more debt, which leads to more devaluation of the dollar. We have the past 40 or so years as evidence that govt, on both the Federal and state level, is incapable of controlling spending.
“What surpised me was walking through the aisles in my local Supercenter is how much of our food is imported, from canned goods to fruit cups.”
Nom, i know very little about this. But i recall that alot of our food products and agriculture is exported to be refined and processed and then shipped back to us for consumption somehow. I would hope that under an emergency situation we would stop exporting alot of that food and think of ways to process it here.
183: Last sentance:
“But, at some point, he adds, “you have to limit your exposure to being a victim in this.”
Can one be considered a victim of self-inflicted wounds.
@[75];
…there is a such a gratifying and rewarding feeling to finally come home to “my” place and not someone else’s.
Ahh, I see the blue pill is already taking hold.
Way back in 2005 I read a piece in the WashPost about a couple who just bought a house in suburban MD. The essence of the interview was that they spent way more for the house than they wanted to, it was further out than they had wanted, leaving both with longer commutes and less time together, house and land were both smaller than they wanted (by .25 acre and 1 bedroom), didn’t have a garage or pool like they wanted or space to put same, was older than they wanted and requried work that they weren’t sure how they were going to afford — but they LOVED their house. I just scratched my head and asked myself “SELF! What’s to love?”
#183 And they have horses too.I mean really it is such a tragedy for them. What will happen to the horses? Too bad they just did not buy the 375K house to begin with. But no, not them after all a policeman and his realtor wife should be living in an affluent suburb of Phoenix;they are entitled to it.
http://www.nypost.com/p/entertainment/tv/italian_group_asks_mtv_to_cancel_6NTnjOmvXU04KcecvGMy6N
the end is nigh
Gov Patterson makes Gov Arnold look like a girly man.
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE5AN4V720091124
In that scenerio Shiny should be at least 10K during the first week and make money will me the next Bloomberg.
[190] veto,
Makes sense, but I know less than you about our food dist. system.
There are a lot of well-read folks here who do though. And I think I may give up on expanding my garage next year since that space is prime vegetable garden location. Lots of sun, and out of sight from the house and street.
Yeah, a shed in the far back is much cheaper, and uses up the wasted space.
Question, since we seem to be on the topic, what happens to everyone’s mortgage in the case of a currency collapse?
Anything?
Veto 189
I would hope that under an emergency situation we would stop exporting alot of that food and think of ways to process it here.
Inertia is the killer. We could process here in the US but are not set up for it and it would drive the cost of basic food stuffs much higher. Call it a food death spiral not much different from the dollar’s.
In the scenario RE101 put forth, you would virtually overnight lose a significant portion of your food purchasing power. if we suddenly had to source food processed in the US we would potentially see shortages of some products are supply chains are interrupted and then a a potentially doubling or tripping of the price of some goods.
Consider that virtually all food supply chains in the US and most of the world work on a JIT (Just In Time) basis. The average grocery store has 24hrs work of stock on hand and the warehouse that supplies the store most likely has 36 - 72 hours supply on hand.
in such a scenario interruption of food supply chains is virtually guaranteed if for no other reason then how are all of the truckers going to pay for gas. 75+% of US food is transported throughout the supply chain by truck.
The only buffer that would exist in the scenario put forth is what is in your pantry.
yes the US is capable of being food self sufficient, but it would take a few years (at best) to actually get the nation up and running in that mode. We would also still see food prices skyrocket as we would still rewire massive amounts of fertilizer and diesel fuel to maintain food production and transport. In the proposed dollar crash scenario, the price of oil and oil derivative products such as fertilizer would go through the roof.
Just think of the butterfly flapping its wings in south america causing a rain storm in the US (complex systems and unpredictable feed back loops)
Housing Bottom? “Not Even Close,” Barry Ritholtz Says
A fifth-straight monthly gain for the Case-Shiller Index Tuesday and Monday’s stronger-than-expected existing home sales report is giving renewed hope to the housing bulls.
“Disregard them,” says Barry Ritholtz, CEO of Fusion IQ, who notes the existing home sales number was juiced by sales of cheap condos and various government programs.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/378885/Housing-Bottom-%22Not-Even-Close%22-Barry-Ritholtz-Says?tickers=XHB,TOL,DHI,PHM,MAS,LOW,USG&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
Moose 191
What’s to love?”
Dopamine.
Cocaine, amphetamines, and a number of substances can provide the same feeling of pleasure for a substantially lower price. For the difference of the PITI vs renting they could probably afford a regular habit and still save a few bucks each month.
Veto [197],
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_yM0wutEGO5E/SXafiDxkMbI/AAAAAAAAAEM/JwhnkUutCYE/s320/Barack.Obama-Collectible-Million.Dollar.Bill.jpg
Veto
what happens to everyone’s mortgage in the case of a currency collapse?
Well given that a few oz of shiny will pay off your entire mortgage, you mail the bank a few 1 oz coins.
Inertia is the killer. We could process here in the US but are not set up for it and it would drive the cost of basic food stuffs much higher. Call it a food death spiral not much different from the dollar’s.
There’s a lot of stuff that we’ve shipped out that we’d have to set up processes for again. I’m thinking of manufacturing and even jobs that have been outsourced. Assuming that dollars are no longer acceptable, we’d be forced to rebuild all of the things we’ve outsourced, hence rebuilding employment and the economy here in the US and moving us away from a “finance” based scenario. In other words, the “punch bowl” will have been taken from the fed and Wall Street and we’d be forced to create a real economy and sound money.
A dollar collapse might not be a bad thing in the long haul. Quite painful in the near term however.
198 - they’ll find a way to keep you on the hook
193: I am sick of the media portraying (insert ethnicity, religious sect or political affiliation here) as (insert derogatory comment here) throughout history. (Insert group, club here) intends to boycott/hold our breath, etc. until (insert unrealistic, irrational, unattainable goal here).
That show will be a treat. Will have to watch at the gym (in my Mom’s garage). Only 6 mos ’til Labor Day and I need to compete with these guys for the guidettes! Not.
Re101
you forgot to change you handle before posting ;)
Veto
in a currency collapse situation we would probably be similar to Argentina ala 99/00
thought this was interesting
DSNews.com Fannie Looks to Level Foreclosed-Home Playing Field
[206] relo
We Italians are OFFENDED by such manifestly untrue and unrepresentative portrayals.
And if you don’t stop, we’ll have your legs broken.
Kettle, in the event of a major currency devaluation, the scenario wold most likely mirror Argentina. But the US should fair better, we have a better, more diversified economy than Argentina and our services sector while not the great savior it was thought to be, will still be a “major export” so to say. By and large for information technology the world runs on systems designed and sold by American companies, same goes for entertainment(movies, music, as bad as what is produced us based music and film is the most popular in the world), heavy equipment, food(raw materials), and weapons of mass destruction. Mind you we may suffer but we still lead the world in these key areas and the US has been in a state of decline for years, yet we manage to stay on top? Mostly through missteps of the nations supposedly superseding us as THE WORLD POWER. Things don’t look good, but the world is hardly ending, expect quality of life to suffer and tax bills to rise but don’t bet on starvation and chaos, that just seems wholly unlikely. I’m not happy with where we are going and we may very well not be such a well positioned country in the future, but I’m still not buying into the riots/compound/starvation scenario.
I think if anyone is offended it is the nation of Italy, those people with their crazy hair and load, low class behavior are effecting the way the world views the people of an entire nation.
I think italy might declare war on SI and LI.
So Veto is Re101?
I assumed it was somebody much more clueless, like PCG. Can you please retire him and think up a new character?
How about an entitled “public servant” who likes to live above and upon my means? Real estate flippers are so 2006. The new story is how those living on the public tax roll will be clinging to their benefits.
Unemployment sure has come a long way. I heard there were no food stamps during the Great Depression. The unemployed would be handed a bag of flour, a bag of beans, some dry milk if you had a baby and told to “Go make it.” Today’s food pantries hand out boxes of Stove Top, Ocean Spray Cranberry Sauce, green bean cassarole and Butterball Turkeys. So they eat just like the rest of us, only it’s free.
schumpter, i was reading this awesome article, and just found out where you got your name!
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2009/10/new-yorker-article-on-martin-armstrong.html
this is one of the best pieces of journalism i’ve read this year.
How’s this for a subhed: Is the financier Martin Armstrong a con man, a crank, or a genius?
If you like numbers/theories you’ll eat this up.
worth noting (halfway through):
“The summer of 2010 will be devastating.” Something about planets lining up.
I pray, pray, pray this happens in LATE August, if at all.
Dino and Harry’s is a good spot. Arthurs isn’t so good. Actually had a good steak at the Brass Rail not to long ago.
We need another Brass Rail GTG.
oh, and i’ll probably repost that link if nobody talks about it.
seriously, it’s tremendous (though non-real estate) stuff.
the 8.6 years/3100 days think has me targeting (and wondering) about what the heck might happen in 2015
Chi-fi, you will love that link.
Schumpeter says:
November 23, 2009 at 1:48 pm
Barb (79)-
We won’t need the ability to deconstruct Proust when the highlights of our days to come will be getting the harvest in before the rain and securing the perimeters of our compounds.
am i the only one that actually laughs at this stuff? I must have repeated your ‘feral dogs’ comment the other day to 4 people already.
206: Nom, why would WE be offended by something clearly non-representative? Auch aye, must be the Scot in me that let’s it slide.
My in-laws however, will go to the mattresses.
Schumpeter says:
November 23, 2009 at 2:12 pm
vodka (85)-
Anyone with skills, arms and the ability to use them will be rulers of the planet in the Dark Ages to come.
i assume you’re seeing “The Road” on opening night, Clot?
i believe it comes out this weekend. while you middle finger the Black Friday crowd, take notes on survival.
anyone read the book?
Death knell for Gold?
Jim Cramer says:
“The rally in gold is a good thing!”
Sean says:
November 23, 2009 at 3:51 pm
Football question.
It’s down to the wire in my Survivor Pool for a few grand. There are three people left in my pool and I am one of them.
Here are my potential picks for this week, give me your best pick out of these four.
Cincinnati (7-3) over Cleveland (1-9) at Cincinnati
Atlanta (5-5) over Tampa (1-9) at Atlanta
Dallas (7-3) over Oakland (3-7) at Dallas
Philly (6-4) over Washington (3-7) at Washington
dangerous spot, Sean.
Personally, I’d toss Philly right out of the gate. Struggling. Skins play tough defense, Eagles skill guys are young and error prone. Coming off big road win … could have a letdown.
I like Dallas. Haven’t played well the last two weeks, Romo dinged up … but the Raiders probably partied well into monday morning after the stunner vs. Cincy. short week. have to travel. loss.
#219 - anyone read the book?
Yes. Very dark; even knowing it was a Cormac McCarthy novel about the end of the world it was very very dark.
I’m not sure how they’re going to manage putting it on the screen. There isn’t a lot of dialogue and I don’t think the tension may translate very well.
I’m still going to see it though.
“So Veto is Re101?”
A West, Kettle,
No. I am not Re101.
I couldnt even make up a character who is that right wing.
awesome
make money says:
November 24, 2009 at 4:07 pm
the end is nigh
Jcer
I am not suggesting mad max. There were foos shortages during the initial phase of the argentinian currency collapse. I think our outlooks are closer then you think, although I believe you mat be overvaluing some American “industries”
don’t forget what SAS says, because in the end we do have a very large number of physical and economic weapns to threaten other nations with in order to prevent an all out collapse.
There is also the fact that global currencies are so integrated at this point that a large number of nations wold suffer n such a collapse not just the US
Really? You don’t say? Those Fed guys are really sharp:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aCgdX7FfpbvU
Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve officials said record-low interest rates might fuel “excessive” speculation in financial markets and possibly dislodge expectations for low inflation, according to minutes of their meeting released today.
“Members noted the possibility that some negative side effects might result from the maintenance of very low short-term interest rates for an extended period,” minutes of the Nov. 3-4 meeting said, “including the possibility that such a policy stance could lead to excessive risk-taking in financial markets or an unanchoring of inflation expectations.”
snip
“Can one be considered a victim of self-inflicted wounds.”
Just look at all the “victims” of overexending themselves with their mortgages and other debt and the “victims” of pulling every bit of equity out of their homes to buy beanie babies.
We MUST help the poor victims.
“am i the only one that actually laughs at this stuff?”
yikes, schumpt is clearly in a league of his own. for me, his posts can only truly be appreciated if you imagine that every word is totally sincere.
When the Washington Post can’t make money, wha is the future of the printed newspaper?
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Washington Post is closing its bureaus in Chicago, Los Angeles and New York as the money-losing newspaper retrenches to focus on politics and local news in the nation’s capital.
“At a time of limited resources and increased competitive pressure, it’s necessary to concentrate our journalistic firepower on our central mission of covering Washington and the news, trends and ideas that shape both the region and the countries politics, policies and government,” the paper’s top editor, Marcus Brauchli, wrote in a memo to employees that was obtained by Reuters
snip
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5AN5F120091124
Yikes,
Armstrong is a f-ing genius. Actually surprised there hasn’t been a movie based on his story. Get your hands on his work, fascinating.
In honor of Springsteen ending his tour in Buffalo, take a look at this RE mess up there:
http://blogs.reuters.com/route-to-recovery/2009/11/23/tour-de-depression-of-buffalo-slow-moving-katrina/
Interesting pair of articles on the Google news frontpage:
Climate change quickens, seas feared up 2 meters
Reuters - Alister Doyle - 3 hours ago
OSLO (Reuters) - Global warming is happening faster than expected and at worst could raise sea levels by up to 2 meters (6-1/2 ft) by 2100, a group of scientists said on Tuesday in a warning to next month’s .
Poll: More Americans growing skeptical of global warming
Washington Post - Juliet Eilperin - 1 hour ago
Even proponents of action on climate change such as Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, who has conducted polls on the issue for the American Security Project …
(215) Grim
Sounds good. 12/4 work?
PGC and I have unfinished business and hobroken is a very apropos location (tho weehawken would be good too). So let’s get it on!!!!!
Great news for clot!!!
US refused to sign international land mine treaty.
Breathe easy there clot!
re: kettle
“Consider that virtually all food supply chains in the US and most of the world work on a JIT (Just In Time) basis. The average grocery store has 24hrs work of stock on hand and the warehouse that supplies the store most likely has 36 - 72 hours supply on hand.”
—————————————
Kettle, it’s partially true. For the perisable product the supply is probably 4-7 at WH. For the rest - I would say 1-4 months since it’s all contracted in advance, purchased in huge amounts (cheaper that way) and stored. We are in apparel and it’s seasonal. We buy and store, ship initial order then relplenish for 2-3 months.
And BTW, JIT is only in theory. It takes goods about 2 weeks after it’s shiped to hit stores, since most of the time it goes to the retailer DC with lables marked for stores
Sounds good. 12/4 work?
Unfortunately, I can’t make it.
I’ll be pulling a Stu & Gator.
Stuck in an ICLE class and bored to tears. Somebody post something.
GOLD GOLD GOLD….noticed that the US owns the most GOLD! About 8 times what China has, 8 times what all individual investors have and almost 3 times more than any other nation…I guess we can sell it?
Shore, (232)
Looks like the climate change hucksters are cooking up a distraction to avert everyone’s eyes from the climategate leak.
“Daddy, what’s a socia1ist”?
I would have to say “Grandma”. Although shes more of a marksist with capitalist tendancies.
I dont, think there is such a concept of a DINO. The far right throw RINO at the middle and the far left does the same. I don’t think the right to bear arms and gun control are mutually exclusive. I personally dont have a problem with people having guns, more an issue of what they have and how many.
While you see micro marking of ammo as a stealth tax, I see it is a very good way of cracking down on illegal weapons. Filing numbers off a gun is a one time activity. Taking care of 150 rounds for a drive way is a bigger logistical chalange. While people will regualrly trade guns, there should be less of a market for trading ammo. If you can’t account for your ammo (through sale or theft) getting dug out of the wall at a crime scene, you should go to the big house.
I’m shocked. I thought the hole in the back of the water cooler jar was for making change …. :*)
http://www.courthousenews.com/2009/11/24/NYC_Homeless_Charity_A_Fraud_AG_Says.htm
12/4 can work, but I will be late. I have to take the kids to the town tree lighting. I should be able to make Hoboken for around 9PM.
Grim 236 - Stu wants to know where you’re going. He’ll be in Vegas that weekend so I will likely be out as well unless the grandparents miss Lil Gator enough to pick him up from school and watch him for the night.
The far right throw RINO at the middle and the far left does the same.
should be
The far right throw RINO at the middle and the far left will throw RINO at the moderate Dems.
drive way - driveby
shouldn’t post while trying to put kids to bed.
Nom 237 - I’ll bite - deciding between fruity frozen drinks and Pacificos while lounging on a Mexican beach is tough.
Also, who needs health care reform when you can buy anything from a Mexican Pharmacy without a doctor’s prescription and the full cash price is less than your US insurancecopay.
Also Lil Gator likes the chocolate tres leches cake.
Marlboro teachers might strike over $950 contribution to $22,000 family health care plan.
Marlboro school workers push for new contract
Union, Marlboro at odds over benefits package
By ALESHA WILLIAMS BOYD • FREEHOLD BUREAU • November 12, 2009
MARLBORO — Negotiations will continue between the K-8 district and Marlboro Township Education Association after both sides remained unable to settle the union’s contract Monday.
The district and the association on Monday participated in “super conciliation,” the last stage in negotiations allowed in the state’s collective bargaining process. Union members have been working without a renewed contract for nearly two years.
At issue is a $950 contribution the board is asking members pay for a family health benefits package. A state-appointed fact-finder determined in August the district can afford to cover the contribution.
“It’s not a matter of their inability to pay,” MTEA President Diane Saks said. “They have the ability to pay and we were willing to take a lesser salary increase which would help them but it just wasn’t enough.”
The fact-finder also recommended staffers pay higher co-pays, return a personal day and take a salary increase of about 4.1 percent to 4.4 percent, lower than the county average and the 5-percent-to-6.5-percent increases the union had initially proposed.
The union accepted the recommendations. But the board rejected the healthcare recommendation, calling it “inherently flawed” because it was, at least in part, based on county trends. The majority of Monmouth County districts do not require a contribution.
“The result of this circular reasoning appears to be that there will never be a time that this particular negotiated item will ever be present in a majority of school districts based on fact finders’ recommendations,” a statement on the district Web site reads.
Three other unions in the Marlboro School District — the Marlboro In-service Employee Association, the Marlboro Township Head Custodians Association, and the Marlboro Administrators Association — have all agreed to contribute toward their health benefit premiums, according to the district.
The district notified parents if there is a strike, schools will have four-hour days with classes led by substitute teachers. The district advertised for substitute teachers at a rate of $300 per four-hour day, significantly more than what it pays its teachers now.
“I think the board will do what it has to do to prevent the educational program from being jeopardized by any illegal action on the part of the association,” Board President Cynthia Green said.
The district is one of fewer than 20 in New Jersey ever to be unable to reach an agreement by this stage in negotiations, New Jersey Education Association spokesman Steve Wollmer said.
A second super conciliation session is now scheduled for Nov. 24.
http://www.app.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2009911120338.
#198 kettle
I have a friend who’s parents owned a clam business, a few states south of here. One day he dropped from a heart attack.
As she was an only child, she inherited the business with her mother. Problem was he left her with half an excel spreadsheet and a cash/payroll book. The first call she got was from the can seller asking how many cans she wanted to order, she asked “for which month?”, he said “for next year” Daddy had so many word of mouth contracts and verbal agreements, she had no ideahow to start. Upshot was that big corporate walked in and wrote her a check for the business. They just wanted the brand. They shut the cannery and told the boats to land at another facility and I think the cans now say Made in Vietnam.
Jut one small example of a business that is not coming back.
Brass Rail 12/4?
great place. our wedding rehearsal dinner was hosted there upstairs and thats also where we watched France get slammed in the last world cup finals.
yeah, good memories there.
I prob wouldn’t miss that gtg.
#212 A West
Have had many names thown at me, but clueless is a bit lame.
Congrats Veto, if that was you it was very well done. I had someone else pegged for it.
I hope RE101 goes on. It is one on the higlights here.
(240)Pgc
How do you know my mother??
Microstamping is a good law enforcement tool. It is also a form of gun control and the equivalent of a substantial tax. Not mutually exclusive. And as for gun control being compatible with ownership, that is a matter of degree.
Now what is up with 9pm??? I agreed to hobroken because I have to cover childcare that weekend. It’s why I could not do NYC. No chance you can’t come out and play earlier? I’m bringing a ball!
#230 BC Bob
Economic pi is why I’m still 90% bonds an stable value.
There are a few things you come across and go WTF and that is one of them.
(245) Gator
Beach? Frozen drinks? I hate you—I’m stuck in a mandatory seminar at Seton Hall Law.
As for those mex drugs, lots are counterfeit. My wife won’t even take generics cuz she is in the biz and doesn’t trust them.
Grim 236 - Stu wants to know where you’re going.
Oahu and Maui
West, you’re really starting to bother me and I’m officially putting you on my damn bad side. You can check with Pat and she’ll clue you on what it means to be on my bad side. You’re going to have hell to pay.
Why is it that I must be some other damn poster masquerating as me? Why in the hell can’t I just be me? Veto is not me. No one else is me but me. Dammit.
212.A.West says:
November 24, 2009 at 5:45 pm
So Veto is Re101?
I assumed it was somebody much more clueless, like PCG. Can you please retire him and think up a new character?
How about an entitled “public servant” who likes to live above and upon my means? Real estate flippers are so 2006. The new story is how those living on the public tax roll will be clinging to their benefits.
“#212 I assumed it was somebody much more clueless, like PCG.”
PGC, for what its worth to you, i think A West’s characterisation of you is way off but in his defense he might have been meaning to rip on re101 although you did take a huge portion of the friendly fire there.
Also, would love to take credit for anyone who regularly uses the term ‘rock ribbed american’ but i cannot do it. its simply not me.
254 - on Oahu - Lanikai beach just south of Kailua. unbelievable and quiet.
BC 230
Get your hands on his work, fascinating.
good luck with that. not easy to do.
The other catch is that the stated cycles from the work of his that i have seen are not always what you might think. In both his and deweys work, you sometimes need to know the method behind the cycle calc to extrapolate correctly.
#50 nom
I will go back into the negoitiations, this is going to cost me.
BC
perhaps one of the reasons some of it seems so mystical and why its not a popular “by the numbers” method
firestorm
I am not a logistics expert, he info i have i have gotten partially from a friend who runs a grocery store,
just a highschool janitor
Interesting article on Darwin, in ight of lat nights discussions.
CNN: You contrast the British 10 pound note, which displays a likeness of Darwin, to the “In God We Trust” on American currency. Why are attitudes in Britain so significantly different on this question?
Dawkins: I think it stems from the far greater popularity of religion in America, but that only pushes the question back a stage. Why is America so much more religious than most other western countries?
http://www.cnn.com/2009/OPINION/11/23/dawkins.darwin.atheism/index.html
“Economic pi is why I’m still 90% bonds an stable value”
PGC [251],
Love to comment. However, WTF?
PGC [261],
BP/USD? Whether it’s God or survival of the fittest, it’s of no consequence. All that matters, it’s a race to the bottom.
BC Bob says:
November 24, 2009 at 6:38 pm
Yikes,
Armstrong is a f-ing genius. Actually surprised there hasn’t been a movie based on his story. Get your hands on his work, fascinating.
BC, interesting reaction. Are you a fan of his work? What do you make of 2015?
Any thoughts on this planet situation next summer?
Pat’s too drained to sit up and bark, Re.
Not working is exhausting. Too many causes, too much penance unfinished, and only one life to do it. I’m going to hell anyway, which sours any sweet victories.
You already have The Pat Seal of Approval.
Once I dreamed of Maui, but never talked about it.
My daughter, for some reason, tells me that her only dream in life is to go to Hawaii. She tells me this periodically.
There’s a Zen College near us, and they shop in the same store I do. I’m thinking about heading down there some night.
Schumpeter says:
November 23, 2009 at 10:46 pm
In the end, this country will kill itself in the suppression of the minority that we are simultaneously bending over backwards to accommodate.
Bingo.
As a minority - whose parents came to this country legally over 30 years ago - this saddens me deeply.
in the last 5 years, i’ve got from democratic to republican, sadly.
(that being said, i’d vote for obama again if he were up against Palin)
#262 BC Bob
I bailed out of Equities in my 401k in 2007 as I saw the PI cycle and the state of the market and thought you know what I’ll take a breather. I remember how my boss got burnt staying in Equities through the Dot Com bust.
I thought I would be out for about six months and would head back in and catch an updraft when the Fed took rates up to counter inflation and the dollar slide. I think the rates were about 4% at the time.
While I missed the uplift from DOW 7400 to today, I balance that against the fact I hit the side lines when the DOW had a 14 in front of it. With rates at 0, I’m still ahead.
The problem is where to go from here.
“The summer of 2010 will be devastating. Something about planets lining up.”
Yikes, i read the piece on Armstrong. Tell you the truth i didnt think there was much there. Maybe im just cynical of tech analysis so call me skeptical.
But it seemed to me a cheapened version of the mayan 2012 thing with the stars aligning and all of that. Except the mayan situation is complex and thoughtful and genius and it knocked me on my @ss when i first read about it.
I dont think this guy even has a model and anyone who wants credibility claims to have called the 1987 crash.
the 9.6 years thing seems like a stretch because their is always something happening every couple months that you can say is significant. Id have to see a more detailed version of his theory to get excited. It was a decent read though. Sorry if im being too critical - it wasnt bad but def not the best piece of the year for me.
#263 BC Bob
While GBP is in the toilet, I think the country as a whole is in a better situation than the US.
They always have the Option of EUR as a last resort.
The property bust will hurt, but will be short lived. The UK is a country with full recourse loans and ARMS tied to LIBOR as standard.
I was shocked when I moved over here and found out you could get a fixed rate mortgage. I was Gimme Gimme Gimme. 30yrs at 5.25 should balance out hopefully.
PGC, is it true that UK is 100 year leases and you dont ever own your house?
My BIL bought in London ten years ago and was explaining it but i may be confusing it.
#268 Veto
The diagram in here says we should have bottomed in 2004 from Dot Com.
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/06/martin_armstron.html
With the drop in Interest rates and the bounce of housing, that may have ben staved off the bottom. I think Kettle has a point in that you have to adjust the underlying model to factor the environment.
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/06/martin_armstron.html
#268 Veto
The diagram in here says we should have bottomed in 2004 from Dot Com.
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/06/martin_armstron.html
With the drop in Interest rates and the bounce of housing, that may have ben staved off the bottom. I think Kettle has a point in that you have to adjust the underlying model to factor the environment.
Sorry for the double post
#270 Veto
Leasehold vs freehold in London is an intesting situation.
The freeholder owns the land and leases it to the property owner. At the end of the lease term, the use of the land (and whatever is on it) goes back to he freeholder. Most leases are 100+ years and for the most part you will not get a mortgage on a property that is on a lease less than 2X the length of the mortgage. If the lease term is short the lease term will be renegotiated as part of the sale.
If you split a building into a multi family, in general the ground floor Apt will own the freehold with the higher floors on long term leases.
Secondary Market says:
November 24, 2009 at 11:10 am
- actually shocked with the overwhelming sense of pride and accomplishment when i pull into my driveway. i worked hard to get to this point and feel truly fortunate to be able to afford a home to raise my family. investment/liability argument aside, there is a such a gratifying and rewarding feeling to finally come home to “my” place and not someone else’s.
seconded. only bought 10 months ago, but i do like to drive slowly through the neighborhood, waving at neighbors and pulling into the driveway admiring a purchase we are happy with.
lame? probably. don’t care. we plan on being here 30 years.
* best laids plans, etc …
* want to make God laugh? Make a plan …
yes, i’ve heard ‘em. Oh well …
Ok, you’re excused only for this evening, but you will come back here and fight me.
You’re not gonna make me waste my can of whup ass.
265.Pat says:
November 24, 2009 at 10:23 pm
Pat’s too drained to sit up and bark, Re.
Not working is exhausting. Too many causes, too much penance unfinished, and only one life to do it. I’m going to hell anyway, which sours any sweet victories.
You already have The Pat Seal of Approval.
Once I dreamed of Maui, but never talked about it.
My daughter, for some reason, tells me that her only dream in life is to go to Hawaii. She tells me this periodically.
There’s a Zen College near us, and they shop in the same store I do. I’m thinking about heading down there some night.
You know I will. ;)
are all you wimps asleep????? you suck!
I was at work…
sl
I really like what you wrote here - it’s well-written. Thanks for posting this. I’ve been experimenting with some recipes from this cookbook. Have you tried any seafood recipes like this lately? Click here if you’d like to check out my site. Have a good week!
WOW, I found this on google searching for something completely unrelated- now I’m gonna have to go back and go all the archives XD Good bye spare time this morning, but this was a truly amazing find :)