Harvard (Feldstein) says prices are going down

From Bloomberg (Hat tip CR!):

Harvard’s Feldstein Says U.S. Economy Still Mired in Recession

The U.S. economy remains mired in a recession, prospects for next year are weak and home prices may resume declines, Harvard University economics professor Martin Feldstein said.

“The recession isn’t over,” Feldstein said today in an interview on Bloomberg Radio in New York. “It will be a while before we have enough information to know if the recession ended.”

Feldstein is a former president of the National Bureau of Economic Research and remains a member of the group’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, the panel charged with determining when recessions begin and end. His comments are at odds with those of the panel’s chairman, Robert Hall, who said early this month that the recession may have ended.

Regarding the residential property market, where the recession initially emerged, Feldstein said the Obama administration’s effort to revive the housing market is a failure and home prices will continue to decline.

“It was just not well enough designed,” Feldstein said. “They ended up failing.” That suggests the housing slump will “continue to push down house prices,” he said.

“We saw a little pause in home-price declines in the summer but I think that was because of the first-time home buyers program,” Feldstein said. “We’re not going to get that boost.”

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

212 Responses to Harvard (Feldstein) says prices are going down

  1. Veto That says:

    wow, first. thats a first.

  2. Veto That says:

    the ny metro price crash resumed in sept.

    prepare to by homes for a dollar.

  3. grim says:

    From the Daily Record:

    Montville resident, son indicted in $4.5M mortgage fraud scheme

    A Montville resident, his son and their Passaic County-based real estate firms have been indicted for allegedly stealing approximately $4.5 million from mortgage lenders by providing false information in home loan applications.

    The defendants allegedly deceived seven mortgage lenders into providing approximately $4.5 million in loans for purchases of 14 homes between December 2005 and September 2007. Six homes were in Paterson, six in Newark and two in East Orange.

    “As detailed in a civil fraud complaint we filed earlier this year, the loans drove a scheme in which the defendants recruited investors to buy overpriced urban properties, then diverted loan funds for their own enrichment, leaving behind run-down homes and investors facing foreclosure,” Attorney General Milgram said in a statement.

  4. grim says:

    On a roll today…

    From the Star Ledger:

    Two men convicted in large mortgage scam in North Jersey

    Two men from Bergen and Hudson counties were convicted in Newark today for their alleged role in a multimillion-dollar mortgage fraud scam, authorities said.

    Fredereick Ugwu, 51, of Upper Saddle River, and Amer Mir, 39 of Jersey City, face at least five years in prison for conspiring to obtain millions of dollars in mortgage loans for unqualified buyers during a four-year period that ended in 2005, U.S. Attorney Paul J. Fishman said.

    Prosecutors allege Ugwu and Mir also intended to sell the two- and three-family homes in Paterson at inflated prices. Ugwu was also convicted on money laundering charges today.

  5. grim says:

    Also from the Star Ledger:

    Foster Wheeler moving executive offices from New Jersey

    Foster Wheeler said today it will move its operating headquarters from Union Township to Geneva, Switzerland.

    The relocation is effective immediately and seven top executives affected by the decision plan to begin working from Geneva next month. The company will maintain a presence and employees at the facility in Union Township.

    “Nearly 85 percent of our business is currently outside North America,” Chief Executive Officer Raymond Milchovich said. “As a result, this relocation will significantly increase management effectiveness by having our senior executive team in much closer proximity to our markets.”

  6. Veto That says:

    from prev post: “I spent $1500 on a coffee maker. I can get a cappuccino by pressing a button without going to starbucks.”

    jcer, that is money well spent. it potentially pays for itself in less than two years an no waiting on lines.

  7. Essex says:

    catastrophe=opportunity

  8. grim says:

    Nice to see our tax dollars making a difference..

    From NJBiz:

    N.J. hovers just above bottom ranking in highway study

    he Reason Foundation released a study Thursday that depicts a slight ranking improvement for New Jersey highway systems, though it still terms them among the worst in the country.

    The Los Angeles-based think tank said it ranked New Jersey 47th for performance and cost-effectiveness, based on information supplied by the state in 2007. According to the foundation’s prior studies, New Jersey ranked 50th for at least the last seven consecutive years among all states.

    The study reviewed highway systems based on such criteria as pavement condition, congestions, fatalities and total spending.

    The report gave the state positive marks for rural roads, but the state’s highway system ranked 50th for maintenance disbursements per state-controlled mile, capital and bridge disbursements per state controlled mile, and total disbursements per state-controlled mile.

  9. grim says:

    From the AP:

    Foreclosure backlog estimated at 1.7M

    About 1.7 million homeowners were on the verge of foreclosure in the fall, a looming “shadow inventory” of homes that will be put up for sale in the coming years and weigh down prices, a report said Thursday.

    The number, up from 1.1 million a year earlier, is likely to keep rising through the middle of next year or later, said Mark Fleming, chief economist of First American CoreLogic, the real estate research firm that released the study.

    Already, the foreclosure backlog is equal to nearly half the 3.8 million unsold new and existing homes currently on the market, First American said.

    “We’re going to be dealing with high levels of distressed (sales) in the marketplace for at least a couple of years,” Fleming said. “It’s not just all going to disappear.”

  10. cobbler says:

    [5] re. Foster Wheeler

    Price of everything in Geneva (except cheese) is totally outrageous. Probably transferring 7 people is all FW can afford.

  11. confused in NJ says:

    First Premier Credit Card 79.9% Interest Rate.

    NEW YORK — It’s no mistake. This credit card’s interest rate is 79.9%.
    The bloated APR is how First Premier Bank, a subprime credit card issuer, is skirting new regulations intended to curb abusive practices in the industry. It’s a strategy other subprime card issuers could start adopting to get around the new rules.

    Typically, the First Premier card comes with a minimum of $256 in fees in the first year for a credit line of $250. Starting in February, however, a new law will cap such fees at 25% of a card’s credit line.

    In a recent mailing for a preapproved card, First Premier lowers fees to just that limit — $75 in the first year for a credit line of $300. But the new law doesn’t set a cap on interest rates. Hence the 79.9 APR, up from the previous 9.9%.

  12. yikes says:

    The issue is that NYC is one of the epicenters of talent, wealth, etc and being among very smart and or wealthy people can tend to drive people’s self esteem down and makes people associate the material possessions with success and as a result these people are flaunting it to try to project an image of success.

    dont know that i totally agree. my job in NYC was one where i was around a ton of wealth … it drove my desire to push harder and work more so i could attain it, too. self-esteem didn’t go down at all.

    i could have easily fallen in the trap of partying with the rich kids (who go out 5 nights a week), but i’d make an appearance, head home, and bust my butt. (also helped that i had a hot gF, now wife, at home).

    im still frugal. we now have 2 cars paid off, which is a great feeling. wife actually said, ‘you could sell yours and we could get something new-ish.’

    hey, i’d love to have a new-ish ride to drive around … but why? so overrated.

  13. kettle1 says:

    The issue is that NYC is one of the epicenters of talent, wealth, etc and being among very smart and or wealthy people can tend to drive people’s self esteem down and makes people associate the material possessions with success and as a result these people are flaunting it to try to project an image of success.

    is that pretorious? Sea of wealth?

    Hmmm sounds familiar…..

  14. Kettle1 says:

    Veto, Al

    from last thread

    Note

    You can buy substantial amounts of brain melting pleasure if you have the funds. But that does not equate to buying happiness.

    That is the point that i think gets lost. Just because you are fitfully entertained by 1000$ hookers and a Kilo of blow doesnt mean you are happy. Pleasure yes, happiness? Not for most people.

    Dont forget that happiness is relative. Some poor villager from the nastier parts of Congo plopped into your life would be worry free and substantially happier then you are with your daily life.

    You plopped into Bill gates life would probably be much happier with his life then he is with his own.

    relativity is a b1tch

  15. Kettle1 says:

    Re happiness

    watch the minimart scene in fight club. great illustration

  16. sas says:

    “Harvard”

    who is going to bailout Harvard?

    SAS

  17. PGC says:

    who is going to bailout Harvard?

    The endowments.

  18. lisoosh says:

    What a thread! Thanks for all the replies. I’d be surprised by the number of Jews except this blog did start with RE and money as its basis……..

    jcer – your posts are seriously sane. It’s the wannabe flaunting that drives me mad. Not even just faux wealth but faux sophistication.

    Clot – to many I would indeed be considered a self-loathing or self-hating jew,as is half the Jewish population of the world it seems these days. The people who say that are rabid nut-jobs of course. Baiting them is in fact a hobby of mine.

    Veto – Yes. Scottish Jewish. A rare and exceedingly thrifty (OK cheap) breed.

    Sean – Ah. Teaneck is now right-wing, slightly fanatical Modern Ortho central.

    Essex – could be coerced into leaving the East Coast.

    Gator – So you’re from Marlboro? Ever go to Freehold Mall in a fur coat? Kidding!!! And Stu is from EB? How’d you meet?

    Chi – you’re right, this is NJ. How on earth did I think I could escape from big hair and big nails?

    Barbara -Cherry Hill noted.

    Nomad – All hat and no cattle, I like it.

  19. still_looking says:

    jcer, Re: coffee maker..

    So with you there. beans/water in. one push, best coffee ever out…

    No coffee pot scorching, etc.

    Easily adjusted to increase or decrease strength of coffee or cappuccino/espresso.

    Have had it for over 5 yrs and will never buy the drip pot coffee maker ever again.

    sl

  20. lisoosh says:

    Better than a $1500 coffee maker -

    A $900 espresso machine picked up for $100

    http://www.pavonishop.com/lapaveuresma1.html

    There is no satisfaction greater than a good deal.

  21. PGC says:

    Nom, Tax news of the day

    The winner of the Guardian’s online contest to solve the mystery of (Tony)Blair’s finances is Richard Murphy, a crusading accountant from Tax Research UK. His entry unearthed the small print of the Partnership (Accounts) Regulations 2008 to reveal that Blair has found an unusual method to keep his wealth secret from the rest of us.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/dec/17/mystery-tony-blairs-money-solved

    Next up GHWB and Bill

  22. still_looking says:

    lis, 20

    nice! coffee, definitely my favorite stuff ever.

    sl

  23. Essex says:

    Coerced….heh heh heh…oh yeah.
    I would fit in well in La Jolla –

  24. crossroads says:

    In the happiest state rankings NJ is 49th

    http://www.livescience.com/culture/091217-happy-state-list.html

    I’m pledging to be more miserable next year. I want 51st(DC is included)

  25. Schumpeter says:

    Foster-Wheeler can kiss my ass. They were a dead shell of a company for years after the asbestos thing, and all of us here got used to that giant building sitting virtually empty, while their stock traded on the pink sheets.

  26. Nomad says:

    PGC says:
    December 17, 2009 at 11:43 pm
    who is going to bailout Harvard?

    The endowments.

    They should hire the students from the University of Dayton who manage part of UD’s endowment. They consistently have posted better returns that the professionally managed ivy endowments.

  27. Schumpeter says:

    Harvard should be allowed to fail.

  28. Schumpeter says:

    Speaking of fail:

    “Could the next black/green/dark gray swan be so obvious that it has avoided everyone? Well, except for the deputy governor of the Bank of China, who just gave the world a startling reminder of economics 101, when he said that it is “getting harder for governments to buy United States Treasuries because the US’s shrinking current-account gap is reducing the supply of dollars overseas.” Oops.

    The funny thing about natural (and economic) systems: they can only be pushed so far before they snap back to default state. With the entire world embarking on an unprecedented spree of domestic bubble blowing to mask the collapse in global GDP, everyone forgot to trade. Zero Hedge has long emphasized that the drop in world trade can only sustain for so long before it brings the current destabilized system back to some form of equilibrium. Because with every country intent on merely printing more of its own currency, whether it is to build bridges or to make the stock of electronic book fads trade at 100x earnings, said countries ran out of non-domestic cash. Alas, this is most critical for the United States, now that Treasury monetization is over, as the US needs to constantly find foreign buyers of its debt to fund unsustainable deficits. Foreign buyers who have US dollars.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dark-gray-swan-no-more-foreign-dollars-which-buy-us-treasuries

  29. Nomad says:

    Schump: You seem to have a strong grasp on this stuff – so when no one shows up to buy our Treasuries, does that mean our economy implodes in 24 – 48 hours?

    Or when it gets to the final hour of the crisis stage, do drastic measures take place to address the problem?

    Are we all going to see our life’s work / savings wiped out in a matter of days?

    Been holding out buying a home – almost wondering if its time to bit the bullet just to have a place to live if everything else goes to zero.

    Thanks,

  30. Essex says:

    24. Laissez bontemps roulez!

  31. Schumpeter says:

    nomad (29)-

    My overwhelming guess is that when China (and all other foreign entities) stop buying UST, our own printing press goes into hyperdrive, and what was QE on the down-low becomes flat-out monetization. It will be an internal, closed loop of cash-for-trash.

    From that point, you can guess the rest. It won’t be pretty.

  32. Schumpeter says:

    nomad (29)-

    It occurs to me that you could look to Zimbabwe for a preview of our endgame.

  33. BC Bob says:

    “It was just not well enough designed,” Feldstein said. “They ended up failing.” That suggests the housing slump will “continue to push down house prices,” he said.

    Govt manipulation will never alter a business cycle. Sure, you can delay, freeze and try to plug a million holes in the dyke. Print to oblvion, throw enough s*it against the wall, hoping that something may stick.

    Unfortunately, they are just prolonging the agony, jamming the next generation with obligations they will never be able to account for. The net result is already baked in the cake.

    In the meantime;

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMIt17mQUCA

  34. BC Bob says:

    I think the date of this article is wrong. I believe it was dug up from the archives, circa 1963. The young boy was disoriented, mumbling something akin to SCHUMP.

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34465839/ns/us_news-weird_news/?gt1=43001

  35. BC Bob says:

    “Harvard should be allowed to fail.”

    Schump,

    Why does the road always end with the same characters?

    Nuff said;

    http://www.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,19990215,00.html

  36. John says:

    My Jewish Question of the day, based on growing up in a 86% Jewish Neighborhood. All the people in my town had no problem driving Mercedes, Porsches and BMWs which would make you think they are over the whole WWII thing but if that is the case why won’t they still go anywhere near their ovens? I used to kitchens where the ove instructions and plastic wrap was still in the oven a whole year after the kitchen was put in.

  37. John says:

    Chi-Fi when I gave you this news earlier this week how did you break the news to your clients, did you say some guy I never met on a NJ real estate blog told me Bill Gross is moving to cash?

    Pimco’s Gross Boosts Cash to Most Since Lehman Failed (Update4) |By Wes Goodman and Garfield Reynolds

    Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) — Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund, cut government debt holdings and boosted cash to the most since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed in 2008 amid increasing speculation that interest rates will rise.

  38. Schumpeter says:

    BC (34)-

    There’s a dude I can party with.

  39. Schumpeter says:

    BC (35)-

    Fcuk up, move up.

  40. Schumpeter says:

    It occurs to me that cash is not exactly a great place to which Mr. Gross can move & stay for very long.

  41. chicagofinance says:

    263.jcer says:
    December 17, 2009 at 8:10 pm
    I spent $1500 on a coffee maker, I don’t normally advertise that fact but I consider it worth every penny

    j: I give you a big booya…..

  42. chicagofinance says:

    1.Veto That says:
    December 17, 2009 at 8:22 pm
    wow, first. thats a first.

    vito: you blew it :(

  43. chicagofinance says:

    7.Essex says:
    December 17, 2009 at 8:31 pm
    catastrophe=opportunity

    a “catastrotunity”

  44. Schumpeter says:

    BC (42)-

    I think Gross just said everything we need to know for 2010. Now we can all have a few Knob Creeks and go to sleep until the detonation:

    “The Fed is trying to reflate the U.S. economy. The process of reflation involves lowering short-term rates to such a painful level that investors are forced or enticed to term out their short-term cash into higher-risk bonds or stocks. Once your cash has recapitalized and revitalized corporate America and homeowners, well, then the Fed will start to be concerned about inflation – not until. To date that transition is incomplete, mainly because mortgage refinancing and the purchase of new homes is being thwarted by significant changes in down payment requirements. The Treasury as well, has a significant average life extension of its own debt to foist on investors before the Fed can raise short-term Fed Funds.”

  45. Veto That says:

    so, 70% of the board is meshugana?

    I grew with a strong affinity for punk. It wasnt until i was about twenty that i realized one of my favorite bands were die hard jewish. You would think this song was a dead give away.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4J1v-nj5GKg

  46. Veto That says:

    “you blew it.”

    honestly, thats the best i can do with short notice.

  47. still_looking says:

    ket, 15

    awesome, that scene was… just brilliant!

    amazing… takes a gun to the side of your head to wake up and pursue what you really want.

    sl

  48. chicagofinance says:

    JJ: can I have your fcuking e-mail please? I swear it goes nowhere….

    I’m at chicagofinance yahoo.com…please can I get that report…..I give you this POS MS fixed income thing in return plus my eternal gratitude…..and yes….the Bronx is better than Queens..OK..is this enough?

  49. Schumpeter says:

    Inter v Chelsea in next round of CL. Just too twisted for words.

    There is no better sports competition in the world.

  50. Schumpeter says:

    chi (51)-

    Hey, just tell all your clients to buy utilities, just like Gross says he’s doing. ;)

  51. chicagofinance says:

    My brother was pissed when this came out….especially when one was wearing a Stuy t-shirt….he said “I could do this sh!t”….
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PLfjhQG97I&feature=PlayList&p=57C6D5A3FF060978&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=1

  52. chicagofinance says:

    strump: utilities are fcuked….

  53. grim says:

    Saab goes bye bye. Who cares, the only decent Saabs of late were just rebadged Subarus anyway.

  54. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (10) Cobbler

    I don’t think they moved for the cheese or to be closer to customers (lame MF excuse).

    With 85 percent of their biz coming from overseas, and if they are emerging from bad times, and may move from loss position soon, what do you bet that they are close to expariating?

  55. Cindy says:

    Folks – first… Happy Holidays to all. I’ve been gone. Delusional really. 103 temps and such.

    I was released yesterday from the hospital for pneumonia. Mon. doc says you have swine flu – get some Tamiflu and “be well.”. He listened to my chest, said it sounded great and sent me on my way.

    Day 2 rolls around and I can’t even think of doing sub plans. Principal hires a sub for a good friend who teaches K and sends her over to literally kidnap me and take to the emergency room.

    Still_looking – Here comes the totally cool part. The emergency room doc said, “Your chest sounds great BUT – let’s take an Xray.” Well the story just goes on from there.

    Home now on antibiotics and improving a bit as far as energy goes. If anyone has asked me a question – just know I wasn’t ignoring you – I was off in some other world for a while there.

  56. BC Bob says:

    Cindy,

    Get better fast. All the best.

  57. kett;e1 says:

    Cindy,

    Glad you feel better! Had swine flu as well. its nasty nasty stuff, stay healthy!

  58. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (21) Pgc

    Great find. Makes me wonder if there isn’t something similar in our tax code

  59. lostinny says:

    Cindy
    Hope you feel better soon. Everything can wait. Concentrate on you.

  60. BC Bob says:

    “Concentrate on you.”

    Lost,

    That’s what Tiger said to himself.

  61. still_looking says:

    for John,

    give up the onions…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9gLPdUpHc8

    sl

  62. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (57) Me

    Expatriating, even

  63. Veto That says:

    US pensions go bust, gold crashes, China flops, Bunds soar, predicts Saxo

    America’s Social Security Trust Fund will go bankrupt; both gold and the Japanese yen will crash; and China’s currency will devalue as bad loans catch up with the over-stretched banking system – all in the course of 2010.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/6835576/US-pensions-go-bust-gold-crashes-China-flops-Bunds-soar-predicts-Saxo.html

  64. still_looking says:

    Cindy, 58

    Wow. Feel better…. that’s ER docs for you… trained to expect the worst…not to mention – cynical, skeptical and occasionally bitter.

    Fluids, lotsa fluids…rest and keep clearing as much mucus as you can so you hopefully don’t end up with empyema (lung abscess collection…)

    sl

  65. make money says:

    Cindy,

    I hope you feel better fast.

    Is it time to start the 2010 predictions?

  66. still_looking says:

    And…. high fevers are fun really!!

    Only twice in my life did I have a fever at 104. College, probably was mono. I was hallucinating ducks moving across the top of the wall (at the ceiling) like a shooting gallery of them… was neat, actually.

    Then during residency… left the hospital from trauma rotation after morning rounds (we did 26 hrs on and 22 off) Woke up with shaking chills, too weak to open the heavy doors from the stairwell to the floor in the hospital… knew I was f*cked then….

    Took me 15 minutes to get my seat belt buckled and probably shouldn’t have been driving at all….

    Got off rt 78 and saw a parade of red Dodge Vipers…. like 5 or 6 of them — roadsters… passing me in the opposite lane… finally realized by the time the last car passed me that I was hallucinating… but at least I was entertained!

    sl

  67. BC Bob says:

    veto [66],

    I’m hoping that copper crashes.

  68. BC Bob says:

    “BANKS – the very same BANKS that people claim you have a MORAL AND ETHICAL OBLIGATION TO PAY EVEN IF YOU ARE UPSIDE DOWN – are walking away (by “negotiation” – as in “do it or we’ll default and you’ll get even less!”) from properties EVEN WHILE THE CARNIVAL BARKERS IN THE PRESS ARGUE IT IS IMMORAL FOR YOU TO DO SO.”

    “In a word: BULLSHIT.”

    http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1749-The-Last-Word-On-Strategic-Defaults.html?source=patrick.net

  69. Veto That says:

    i assume everyone here has heard of the ‘jewish dillema’?

  70. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [69] SL

    I remember a brutal fever years ago, when I was sharing a house with some earthy crunchy dude. I told him I was at 103, and he said, when it gets to 104, sell.

    Strange hearing a market-oriented joke coming from him.

  71. still_looking says:

    lost you’ve got mail! :)

    sl

  72. BC Bob says:

    “Is it time to start the 2010 predictions?”

    Make,

    Simple. Everybody will finally hear the rooster crow, maybe even F-TV. Unfortunately, they are not aware that the barn door is locked.

  73. still_looking says:

    Nom, 73

    At 103 you’d be lucky to lift your arms, let alone punch him…

    The hallucinations were fascinating though…. much as what I figure doing acid might be like – always wished I’d been brave enough to try it…. just never did.. the stories though, always remind me of my high fever.

    sl

  74. Schumpeter says:

    veto (72)-

    Ham at half price?

    Feel better, Cindy.

  75. Schumpeter says:

    2010 will be 365 days closer to oblivion.

  76. Veto That says:

    schumpy, bingo.

    for me that one never gets old.

  77. Veto That says:

    can we please skip the 2010 predictions and go right to 2012?

  78. kett;e1 says:

    SL 76

    i have a special little place in my heart for sleep deprivation. Twcie i have had extreme hallucinations and disconnection from reality due to substantial sleep deprivation.

    It was a blast, and would repeat if i could do so on demand.

    It did completely F my sense of reality for a few days though. The regular world seemed very bland and boring after the hallucinations.

  79. BC Bob says:

    Veto [80],

    Great idea, maybe even extend that, 2015.

  80. kett;e1 says:

    SL,

    What was really fun was the time dilation effect like is reported with Salvia trips. a 20 min hallucination lasted days from my perspective

  81. BC Bob says:

    “The U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday passed legislation giving the federal government the ability to borrow a whopping $290 billion to finance its operations for just six additional weeks.”

    “The alternative would be a market-rattling, first-ever default on U.S. obligations.”

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/12/16/house-backs-billion-increase-federal-debt-limit/

  82. Veto That says:

    bc, lol. at 2015 predicting financial markets becomes futile, as they cease to exist.

    anything after 2012 we are really just regirgitating nostradamous and revelation.

  83. Veto That says:

    “I’m hoping that copper crashes.”

    bc – why?

  84. lostinny says:

    Sl
    I was never a big fan of acid. However, I did enjoy mescaline quite a bit.

  85. still_looking says:

    ket, 84… awesome….a.w.e.s.o.m.e…..a…….w…….e…….s……o…….m………e………………..a…………………w……………..e…………..s………….o……………..m…………..e

    you get the picture.. :)

    sl

  86. kett;e1 says:

    Veto,

    re copper crash…. BUY, BUY, BUY, BUY, BUY

  87. still_looking says:

    how do I fix my blackberry? It’s not receiving emails anymore?

    tried battery reset; didn’t help
    sends emails but won’t receive…

    sl

  88. d2b says:

    kettle-
    how much sleep do you have to miss to hallucinate? I’m free this weekend.

  89. BC Bob says:

    veto [88],

    That’s where I sit.

  90. d2b says:

    Major blackberry outage yesterday. More problems this morning.

    Ironic that the stock is soaring today.

  91. kett;e1 says:

    d2b

    The first time i hallucinated it was at 3 days without sleep and heavy physical activity.

    The second time was 3 days without sleep but with very little sleep each night for the few days before hand. I was also rocking out to some euphoric trance at the time (probably helped). i would suggest some DJ Amadeus to go with your sleep deprivation. Manual Tigo would go along nicely as well

    neither time was intentional and no drugs were involved

  92. kett;e1 says:

    d2b,

    talk to SL about sleep deprivation and hallucinations, it seem to be different for everyone. I have gone longer without sleep without hallucinations as well. the 2 times were the exception for me.

    i dont play that game so much anymore as its not very compatible with being a dad.

  93. cobbler says:

    BC Bob says:
    December 18, 2009 at 9:54 am
    veto [66],

    I’m hoping that copper crashes.

    You want for the people to stop stealing pieces of your house plumbing while you are gone shopping?

  94. Saab goes bye bye

    Yeah, it had been a long time since any Saabs were Saab-like. Still though, I’m a bit sad that another brand that, at least, had a pretense towards quirkiness is gone.
    Who’s left that still does different? Citroen no longer has cars from different planet, Lancia hasn’t done anything in years, Alfa still has passion at least, but we don’t get them here.
    It is as if the world is on this inexorable march towards bland German saloons in understated gray sameness. The triumph of mediocrity.
    With Saab still around you could always hope for a weird design. Now, no more. Nuts.

  95. BC Bob says:

    “You want for the people to stop stealing pieces of your house plumbing while you are gone shopping?”

    Cobbler,

    Yeah, I considered this also, back in 2005.

  96. Shore Guy says:

    “- so when no one shows up to buy our Treasuries, does that mean our economy implodes in 24 – 48 hours? ”

    Not a chance. Clearly, the Fed will just buy the bonds. Then, the Fed will burn them, thus freeing the USG of the debt.

  97. Veto That says:

    “back in 2005.”

    BC, wasn’t that when the chinese were buying our pennies and then melting them down for the metal value?

  98. Shore Guy says:

    The Fed should just go and make loans available to allow every building in the nation to generate all the electricity it needs via photovoltaic cells, and to install geothermal heat pumps in every house, then forgive all the loans.

  99. John says:

    My all time record for staying up is from Sunday morning until Friday night. The weirdest thing was on day 4, I was walking around a corner quickly and I ran into myself and fell down. That was kooky.

    It was finals week at Stony Brook and back them they had a crazy policy since finals were cumaltive you could skip the midterm and have final count 100% and attendence was optional. I picked up slybus first day and plan was to re-appear at finals. Also since text books were like $200 bucks and had a 7 day return policy my master plan was buy text books week of finals study take test and return for full refund. Five finals in a row, read one text book cover to cover night before. Final part was I would sleep like a mother right after last final. Well damm stony brook wanted a big fee to stay over winter break and made me pack up room after last final so I had to drive home and then some guy bummed a right off me in my 12 year old buick. Guy is like this baby rides like a dream at 70 mph nothing like my toyota, then said I know Buicks ride really smooth which is a very bad thing since I have not slept in a week, I think the guy was horrified. But he kept staring at me for the next 50 miles which was a good thing. Damm those Buicks ride like heaven. Sleep deprivation stuff is the bomb.

    End result was a 2.5 gpa one insanely bad week and 3.5 months of heavy partying.

    The other strange thing is I had a roomate who had some bs creative writing course for one hour on friday. He told me his last class Thursay is at lunch time and if I went to the class for him and took notes he could go home and I could have my own room until Monday, if he had to go to class Firday he may stick around, so I went to that class most of the time even though I was not going to my own Friday class. The even weirder part was I said why do you care so little about class, he said I traded Calculus to some aisian guy who does not speak english and is taking his 3 credit in English in return which I subcontracted one day of class to you in exchange for your own room each weekend.

  100. Shore Guy says:

    Then, the fed should buy up all the USG’s debt, and declare BK. The replacement national bank can then start afresh.

  101. John says:

    The Fed should just declare all us debt owned by non us citzens is voided. All problems solved in one shot and would throw china back into dark ages.

    Shore Guy says:
    December 18, 2009 at 11:07 am
    Then, the fed should buy up all the USG’s debt, and declare BK. The replacement national bank can then start afresh.

  102. kett;e1 says:

    shore

    how many days since you slept? thats a hallucination at best

  103. kett;e1 says:

    John,

    you would also see a number of prominent US politicians and individual promptly have “accidents”

  104. lisoosh says:

    Tosh – nobody mass produces quirky anymore, unless in a self-consious kind of way.

    On the high end there is this:

    http://www.tvr.co.uk/
    (my favorite)

    Lotus is available here though you can’t carry a family in one.

  105. relo says:

    85: BC

    Um, not to mention the current generation?

    “We should not be asking for more credit, we should be developing a plan to pay down our deficit so that future generations are not trapped under this mountain of debt,” said Rep Dave Camp, a Republican.

  106. Veto That says:

    “The Fed should just declare all us debt owned by non us citzens is voided.”

    i think we will. thats why they are trying to spike inflation but all you cheapos wont go along with the program.

  107. lisoosh says:

    And this was seen fairly frequently on the road when I was younger:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reliant_Robin

    Don’t make em like that anymore!!

  108. Qwerty says:

    John at 11:06 am,

    Well done. Never give up. It wasn’t over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor, either.

  109. Safeashouses says:

    #85 bc bob

    6 weeks before potential default? Good. Still plenty of time to get my facial. Maybe 2 if I can squeeze one in this year.

  110. #112 – There is (or was) a Reliant Robin tooling around the city as a cab. I saw it as recently as 2 years ago.
    I’m not sure if TVRs are quirky or just insane.

  111. John says:

    I have to rent that new brad pitt movie on netflix thanks for the reminder. I think I will have sushi, pasta and a nice glass of Becks for dinner and go for a whole axis of evil theme.

    Qwerty says:
    December 18, 2009 at 11:40 am
    John at 11:06 am,

    Well done. Never give up. It wasn’t over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor, either.

  112. John says:

    Damm I forgot to use my disinfecting wipes and now I got a bad case of Stephanopoulos

  113. Outofstater says:

    More good news: Visteon wants to dump its pensions on the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp which is in the hole ONLY $21 billion. PBGC’s reply: They HOPE that Visteon won’t do it.
    http://www.detnews.com/article/20091218/AUTO01/912180430/Visteon-moves-to-abandon-pensions

  114. kett;e1 says:

    Veto,

    you have mail

  115. freedy says:

    good grief , is this the best we got?

  116. John says:

    Thank you.

    cheap propecia says:
    December 18, 2009 at 12:11 pm
    Are you a professional journalist? You write very well.

  117. BC Bob says:

    “cheap propecia”

    [122]

    Is that the 2010, Italian version of lowball?

  118. BC Bob says:

    [125],

    John’s Bi?

  119. BC Bob says:

    “I was not talking about you John. I was referring to Bi.”

    Cheap [125],

    A professional journalist? LMAO. Which post today? Let’s just stick to the topic of the day, you’re hallucinating.

  120. John says:

    I am not bi, I only like the ladies. Which post of Bi’s was the good one?

  121. BC Bob says:

    “Which post of Bi’s was the good one?”

    John [128],

    Cheap is trying to hit a Halladay fastball with a hockey stick.

  122. John says:

    Recent jumps in “serious delinquencies” among jumbo loans will be compounded by weakness in the housing market and economy, the company said. An “overhang of impending foreclosures will impact home prices negatively,” with values likely to decline 9 percent more before bottoming in the second half of 2010, Moody’s said. At the same time, U.S. unemployment will rise to peak at about 10.6 percent, said to the firm, which had earlier forecast the jobless rate cresting at 9.8 percent.

  123. Cindy says:

    Thanks all – I actually had a fall and ended up with a pretty bad bruise because I was delirious. I am just too stubborn. I should have gone to the hospital after that fall. I was trying to give the meds a chance to work.

    …funny hallucination story from the day before “they came to get me.”

    Friends had left oranges, Gatorade, chicken soup – you know “stuff” outside my door. I hauled the bags in and went back to my chair, just dizzy with fever.

    I pulled up my blanket and proceeded to watch whatever old movie was on TMC. My feet are up then…ANTS start marching up the blankets out of the TV covering my blanket and finally my face. Only then did I realize..the really were ants – I thought I was hallucinating.

  124. reinvestor101 says:

    Schumpeter says:
    December 18, 2009 at 7:55 am

    nomad (29)-

    My overwhelming guess is that when China (and all other foreign entities) stop buying UST, our own printing press goes into hyperdrive, and what was QE on the down-low becomes flat-out monetization. It will be an internal, closed loop of cash-for-trash.

    From that point, you can guess the rest. It won’t be pretty.

    That’s a bunch of bullspit. WHAT WE NEED IS ONE DAMN CURRENCY–OUR DOLLAR AND THEN WE AIN’T GOT NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT.

    Muck the damn Chinese. No one gives a tinkers damn what those commies think. We need to move a single damn currency that everyone uses and then we can print as much as we like.

  125. chicagofinance says:

    What Matters: Currencies

    The dollar has been the world’s reserve currency for the past century, but now it’s showing signs of stress. Will it retain its status? And does it matter if it doesn’t? What Matters convenes thinkers from around the world to weigh in:

    http://whatmatters.mckinseydigital.com/

  126. John says:

    That Mooodys report basically says why high end sales have ground to a halt.

    Lets say I want a 1.5 million dollar home and I have my 500K sitting in 5% munis.

    But today put down 500k have a one milllion dollar mortgage

    Buy one year from now, put down $525K (one years interest) and buy same house for $1,360,000. With a mortgage of $835,000.

    Trade up buyer already have a place to live, plus gains/losses are magnified. The POS 300K Levitown cape falls 9% it is only a 27K loss. The 1.5 million dollar home is a $140,000 loss at a 9% fall.

    Congress is unwilling to offer any incentive to buy a million dollar plus home so it will keep getting ugly till prices fall to right levels or bonuses make a come-back.

  127. reinvestor101 says:

    heifer

    still_looking says:
    December 18, 2009 at 9:36 am

    for John,

    give up the onions…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9gLPdUpHc8

    sl

  128. John says:

    Cindy that swine flu stinks, my daughter had it last week. I was on a business trip so lucked out otherwise I be in stame boat as you!! Get better soon. Those snot nosed brats kids will need some teaching next week.

  129. Schumpeter says:

    BC (133)-

    Cash as trash.

  130. reinvestor101 says:

    Cindy,

    Unlike Dr. Pottymouth(Still Looking), you’re a nice lady and I wish you a speedy recovery.

  131. Schumpeter says:

    tard (139)-

    I wish tetanus on you, followed by a slow, agonizing death.

  132. still_looking says:

    Well…for f*ck’s sake, I have finally! identified who you are!

    sl

  133. still_looking says:

    141 is for the ReTard.

    sl

  134. BC Bob says:

    Sl [141],

    Is that a flip that flopped?

  135. still_looking says:

    BC, 143

    :)

    sl

  136. Schumpeter says:

    BC (143)-

    Looks like Tard’s idea of a promissory note.

  137. Cindy says:

    139 101…That’s so sweet. And happy holidays to you and yours.

    Remember, we do not want to anger Still in any way…I have just discovered that credible medical advice is golden.

    Still – I think I know too. We should exchange emails…Ask Grim for mine if you want…

  138. reinvestor101 says:

    still_looking says:
    December 18, 2009 at 1:34 pm

    Well…for f*ck’s sake, I have finally! identified who you are!

    sl

    Lady, you know absolutely no damn limits whatsoever do you? People are often eating their damn lunch when they read this damn board and no doubt you caused hundreds of them to barf.

    Look, I don’t know what kind of damn doctor actually wants to make people sick. They should suspend your damn malpractice for this crap.

  139. Cindy says:

    Time for a nap…see you all later…

  140. reinvestor101 says:

    Cindy says:
    December 18, 2009 at 1:43 pm

    139 101…That’s so sweet. And happy holidays to you and yours.

    Remember, we do not want to anger Still in any way…I have just discovered that credible medical advice is golden.

    Happy holidays to you and your Cindy. You’ve always been so ladylike here and sharing. Please don’t sully yourself by associating with this damn Dr. Pottymouth. She’s cruel and evil.

  141. BC Bob says:

    “Rather, there may be an “unmanaged” reserve currency system in which the United States and the eurozone follow a hands-off approach—continuing to place much greater weight on the domestic economic agenda in setting policy than on supporting the global system.”

    Chi [134],

    They just described a doomsady scenario.

    It’s a very complicated issue. Since the world is one, do we gravitate to a SDR, comprised of different currencies with a tangible component. If yes, how do we compete in the worldwide arena, if we can’t/don’t manipulate our currency?

    One thing is guaranteed. Nothing will change until there is an outright, bloodbath in the currency markets. Make no mistake about it, there will be contagion. One other guarantee, nobody could see this coming.

  142. John says:

    Who the heck would live in this NJ Town?

    NEW JERSEY
    BRICK TOWNSHIP, Ocean County
    Brick Township Landfill, and McCormick Dump
    1987 – Testing reveals cadmium and volatile organic compounds in groundwater beneath the dumpsites.
    1999 – Federal health officials believe they may have found a cluster of autism,
    something that has never before been documented.
    2000 – Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirm high rates of
    autistic disorder and ASD in Brick Township.

  143. still_looking says:

    For Grim:

    Can you send Cindy my email?

    Can you also send me lisoosh’s? (I probably have it already but good luck finding it.)

    Thanks!

    sl

  144. reinvestor101 says:

    Schumpeter says:
    December 18, 2009 at 1:34 pm

    tard (139)-

    I wish tetanus on you, followed by a slow, agonizing death.

    and I hope that you wind up in the damn ER with Dr. Pottymouth attending to you. That’s a fate worst than death. She’s not a vet, but I hope your damn dog winds up there right beside you.

  145. still_looking says:

    ReF*ck, 149

    Cruel and evil only to those who have earned it…

    Your presence is worse than ipecac.

    I wish a pox on you.

    Have fun in hell with your gasoline soaked frilly panties, shim. BTW, wipe your face, you left a bit of your last client on it.

    Did I forget? Oh yeah, um F*ck off.

    sl

  146. reinvestor101 says:

    still_looking says:
    December 18, 2009 at 1:53 pm

    ReF*ck, 149

    Cruel and evil only to those who have earned it…

    Your presence is worse than ipecac.

    I wish a pox on you.

    Have fun in hell with your gasoline soaked frilly panties, shim. BTW, wipe your face, you left a bit of your last client on it.

    Did I forget? Oh yeah, um F*ck off.

    sl

    Cindy,

    This is a perfect example of why YOU DON’T WANT TO ASSOCIATE with Dr. Pottymouth. I’ve never seen anyone behave in such a manner. Note the earthy and very salty damn language here AFTER I DID NOTHING TO HER WHATSOEVER.

    She a one woman wreaking crew and is exceedingly cruel and evil.

  147. BC Bob says:

    “I am 29 years old and I make about $130k a year with overtime. Most of the officers make this and some even make $185k a year. A few supervisors in Internal Affairs have made of $200k along with detective sergeants.”

    “To be honest, I think our salaries are totally out of touch with not only the private sector, but with America. It’s absolutely ridiculous. When I became a police officer we were all making way below what private sector employees made. I took the job knowing I will never be rich but knowing I will have a stable job with benefits.”

    “I have been an employee of the DOE for 10 years and I was in the private sector for 20 years before that. Working for the federal government has been an eye opening stunner for me.”

    “Not only are many nitwits paid well over $100,000 a year (I call this welfare for the educated) but many of these employees don’t even bother showing up for work.”

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

  148. Schumpeter says:

    tard (155)-

    “She a one woman wreaking crew and is exceedingly cruel and evil.”

    So what are her bad points?

  149. make money says:

    Cheap is trying to hit a Halladay fastball with a hockey stick.

    Not if it’s August and he’s wearing a Mets uniform.

  150. John says:

    BC, I want to be a rich public servant when I grow up. Funny part in BC and LI you can’t support a family on 200K anymore. That is why we are so lucky we all make over 250K on this site and are all xtremely good looking.

  151. make money says:

    Home Builders Association is latest victim.

    http://www.journal-topics.com/topics/09/top091217.22.html

  152. relo says:

    156: Good frien is on a local PD. He is very candid about conversations w/ fellow officers and where all this is headed. Turned down Chief position as it would be a pay cut (hrly basis). He’s on the compensation committee and says what a joke the town reps are. Like a badly run not-for-profit, when it’s “nobody’s” money, it spends easily. Until there is no more.

  153. BC Bob says:

    “BC, I want to be a rich public servant when I grow up.”

    J [159],

    I want to be Director of Talent Acquisition for Tiger Enterprises.

  154. BC Bob says:

    relo [161],

    Two bil’s are on the force. I hear the exact same.

  155. still_looking says:

    …And at least I can spell, asshole.

    Wreaking?

    I’ll be thinking of you when I take my next sh’t.

    sl

  156. d2b says:

    Our local Police and Fire have been without a contract for 12 months. With a new admin coming in we thought that the old admin would jam something through.

    Why no hurry for a new contract? No concessions with the expired one.

  157. jcer says:

    Kettle, I’m not pretorous(sp). The point is this is a wealthy area and there are more intelligent/successful people here by percentage of population that elsewhere, NYC attracts talent. Now that being said, I still don’t think there is a sea of wealth, there are those who make a good income, those who don’t, and a small subset that make sick amounts of money. That small subset is larger here than in other places but still very small compared to the other groups.

  158. relo says:

    164: Undercard for Nom cage match? Maybe you and Barbara can become a tag team (no, John, not that kind)? My $$ on you two vs. most, if not all, on this board.

  159. John says:

    If you can make it here you can make it anywhere, funny I worked with a smart canadian girl, she spoke of brain drain, everyone in canada who is smart and good looking goes to NYC to make their fortune and never return. Of course I was born in NYC so I was born good-looking and smart.

    jcer says:
    December 18, 2009 at 2:32 pm
    Kettle, I’m not pretorous(sp). The point is this is a wealthy area and there are more intelligent/successful people here by percentage of population that elsewhere, NYC attracts talent. Now that being said, I still don’t think there is a sea of wealth, there are those who make a good income, those who don’t, and a small subset that make sick amounts of money. That small subset is larger here than in other places but still very small compared to the other groups.

  160. Priced_out_in _2008 says:

    Vito (2)

    Anecdotal evidence that there is a second bottom coming for Central Jersey:

    You can now find a few 3-br/1ba houses in East Brunwick for under $250,000. I’ve been looking since, well, 2008, and have not seen anything but condos and coops in this range.

  161. we says:

    If US did away with tax complications for non-US residents, a lot of money will flow into NYC.

  162. 3b says:

    #166 jcer: Yeah, sure. The same intelligent people who almost collapsed the whole financial system a year ago.

  163. BC Bob says:

    we [170],

    If my aunt had b#lls, she’d be my uncle.

  164. yikes says:

    bc – i asked a buddy (who, like john, is bullish about the economy) about this comment of yours

    http://njrereport.com/index.php/2009/12/13/willing-to-pay-for-it/#comment-348704

    because i wanted to, as you said, ‘start preparing now.

    here was the response:

    if we are borrowing at 0-3% and we are getting away with it who cares in the long run? as long as gdp is greater than 2% overall return to the govt is about 3-5% in taxes. these are used to pay down debt. if we were borrowing at 5-8% then i would say that guy has a point. we are financing our debt at pretty low rates with a lot of demand for it.

    the cb’s are not all buying all our debt check out who is, it is mutual funds and bonds funds. and the chinese and japanese need to buy our debt because they are so long dlrs from exports to us. they can put it dlrs or other commodities which are denominated in dlrs. or they can sell the drls and buy other currencies. but part of the mandate for cb’s is to be safe so they need to buy treasuries of those other countries if they change the currency. the us has the largest and most secure debt instruments, so that is another reason they buy treasuries.

  165. 3b says:

    #168 I wish all the so called successful good looking people not from the NYC area would go home. They are some of the most annoying, self centered, insecure, odd, and, dumb people I have ever met.

    I had one of these bright lights tell me years ago, that because I did not live in Manhattan (Bronx boy), I was not a real NY’er. This from some one who used to tip cows over for entertainment.

  166. 3b says:

    #173 Sounds like your buddy read that from a prepared script. As far as John, he is not that bullish any more.

  167. Kettle1 says:

    Jcer
    sure NJ has some talent and money. But so does Rio & Sao Paulo. In a world of haves and havenots with little inbetween life sucks for all but the top 1%. That’s a net negative for everyone. Although it seems to NJ’s goal

  168. chicagofinance says:

    I want to point out that Bloomberg took over BusinessWeek. I automatically get a free subscription, and had it on the snail-mail version of auto-delete of spam (i.e. as soon as the mailman delivered it, it should go directly into the trash and not be forwarded to my desk). That said, I am going to begin review it on a trial basis….it may have some relevance…sort of a published version of the Bloomberg website (MAYBE – probably generous).

  169. make money says:

    Bc[172]

    My dad always response with that phrase to anyone that ponders possibilities that have nothing to do with reality.

  170. John says:

    No longer so bullish Ford was $1.5 now it is $9.5 which is not that uncommon a gain from the bottom. But that is a 600% gain. People buying today do they really think Ford will soon be a $50 dollar stock? Even crazier, FITB, JPM, BAC, AXL, UIS, CNA, UIS, AIG, GE etc. all have had supersized gains. One of three things will happen, we have a correction, prices stagnate or prices slowly rise. One thing that won’t happen at this level is another huge run up. Investing now you are putting value at risk hoping to catch last bit of an aging bull. Remember, when you run with the bulls at some point the bull will catch you.

    The bond side is more scary to me. If you hold to maturity the most you can ever get is par. Go to a web site and hit in investment grade or munis and hit in 99 cents or less and next to nothing comes up. Nine months ago it was an insane amount. Hartford Financial bonds at 5% today vs. 16% in March big big difference. They,Citi and AIG still have not paid back TARP, have an aging business model and not much has changed yet 1,000 bps wiped out in a few months. Chasing a small amount of extra yield and taking on risk is stupid.

    Gold is another old bull. Right now I think the international non-bubble areas like Europe if we get a mild correction may be the place to go. It has not bubbled and my visit to Europe showed more green shoots starting to pop then in the USA.

    Bottom line is the world is our oyster. Doesn’t not really matter if USA is doing well in investing, as Cramer says they is always a bull market somewhere and I would hate to be making my money all in China stocks next ten years as the USA slowly rots.

  171. chicagofinance says:

    December 18, 2009
    The Pension Protection Act of 2006 (PPA) includes provisions affecting qualified long-term care (LTC) insurance which will be effective, January 1, 2010.

    This is a brief summary of those provisions.

    What exactly is changing on 1/1/10?

    . Tax-free 1035 exchanges (Internal Revenue Code (IRC) section 1035 exchanges) of life insurance, endowment, and annuity contracts for LTCI policies will be allowed. John Hancock believes this includes partial 1035 exchanges to pay the premium on a new or existing LTCI policy.

    o Today, prior to January 1, 2010, the IRC does not allow tax-free 1035 exchanges for LTCI policies
    o IRS guidance is pending as to whether particular contracts such as single premium immediate annuities (SPIAs) can be used for partial 1035 exchanges to pay LTCI premiums
    • Charges from the cash value of an annuity with a LTC rider used to pay for the LTCI coverage will be excludible from the owner’s income. However, such charges will reduce the investment in the annuity contract and are not funded using un-taxed annuity gains. This brings the tax treatment of annuity/LTCI contracts in line with the current treatment of non-MEC life/LTCI policies today.
    o Today, prior to January 1, 2010, charges from the annuity cash value to pay for LTCI charges are treated as distributions and taxable to the extent there is gain in the annuity contract.
    o Qualified LTCI benefit payments from a combination life/LTCI or annuify/LTC! contract are tax free (just as they are for stand-alone LTCI contracts). John Hancock believes that payments from an LTC rider would not reduce the tax cost basis in a combination (ife/LTC! or annuity/LTCI contract. This is contrary to a recent IRS ruling (PLR 200919011), but we are working closely with the American Council of Life Insurers (ACLI) and other carriers in the industry to clarify this issue with the IRS.

  172. chicagofinance says:

    un mod?

  173. make money says:

    John[179],

    10 yr bull market in shiny has absolutely nothing to do with the economy in the european union.

    What kinda stuff are you smoking today?

  174. Veto That says:

    “Anecdotal evidence that there is a second bottom coming for Central Jersey. You can now find a few 3-br/1ba houses in East Brunwick for under $250,000.”

    Priced_out_in _2008,

    Ive been looking since 2004-05 and came very close to signing contracts for homes that would have maxed out my budget at the top.

    I havent seen much of a correction in my town and im so discouraged that im not even expecting anything close to a melt down anymore. i let go of that dream last year when i saw the world ending and RE barely budged in NJ.

    All that i pray for is for once to go looking at a home and not be totally frustrated and appalled at the entire experience.

  175. BC Bob says:

    Yikes [173]

    “if we are borrowing at 0-3% and we are getting away with it who cares in the long run?”

    You are referring to goldilocks, 0% borrowing, strong growth and no inflation. What’s the long run? What scenario do you envision when rates rise? Hopefully, there’s enough inflation to wipe the debt away. Comforting? In addition to this, what occurs if we follow Japan, 1990′s? Deflation is the worst scenario for debt.

    The demand comes from the dealers, aka fed. So we are monetizing debt. How do you eliminate debt by printing more debt? Unfortunately, if rates rise, the debt remains.

    “the cb’s are not all buying all our debt check out who is, it is mutual funds and bonds funds”

    What happens when their is a sniff of rates rising? The fed controls the short end, the market the long end. The long end got hit with a jolt this past week. If this continues, do institutions hold a losing position or double down?

    The Chinese have spread out of the long end into T-Bills. As a result of this, they don’t have to worry about selling. They just don’t have to renew. Take a look at their participation at recent auctions. The theory that these creditors have to continue to buy is nonsense. How long does one accept a 3% return while they lose 8-10% in currency losses.

    I do believe that cb’s will buy to support the dollar. After all, their exporters are getting pinched. How do they keep their profit spread, while their currency is appreciating? At the same time, our model is managed depreciation of the currency. Controlled, systematic, currency movement/variations is the game plan. That’s fine until, one day, the markets decide otherwise.

    IMO, the world’s biggest bubble is our treasury market.

  176. Veto That says:

    cheap. we simply cannot compare nv and nj on price alone.
    right?

  177. Veto That says:

    stu, is that you?

  178. 3b says:

    #183 veto: The melt down is coming. You can only manipualte for so long,and the economy is nto getting better anytime soon.

    You just have to decied at which point of the melt down you wnat to get in, to hedge your losses, becasue you will lose money on a house purchase now, guranteed.

    On another note looks like the last Saturday for shopping in Bergen Co is going to be a bust.There is a big blizzard on the way. The weather channelwebsite is calling it a possible historic storm, 15-20 inches or more of snow, between noon tomorrow and Sunday morning;winds up to 50 MPH!!

  179. BC Bob says:

    “15-20 inches or more of snow, between noon tomorrow and Sunday morning;winds up to 50 MPH!!”

    3b,

    Whoa. Gotta get out of here, to the liquor store.

  180. Doyle says:

    #190

    BC, you read my mind… I’m stocking up on the commute home.

  181. BC Bob says:

    “I’m stocking up on the commute home”

    Doyle,

    Pant up demand.

  182. 3b says:

    #190/191 Me too.What else can we do but drink!!!!!

  183. BC Bob says:

    3b,

    Yeah, I don’t have to shovel. Getting used to this rental life.

  184. Doyle says:

    BC, also planning this year’s CFB trip at the moment… Vols @ Baton Rouge on 10/2/10 is in the lead.

  185. John says:

    wait till the gold bandwagon people who jumped on bubble see their 2010 bill. I don’t think most know there is no LTCM break and that is taxed at the full rate.

    make money says:
    December 18, 2009 at 3:41 pm
    John[179],

    10 yr bull market in shiny has absolutely nothing to do with the economy in the european union.

    What kinda stuff are you smoking today?

  186. BC Bob says:

    John [196],

    Not futures nor miners. BOOYAA.

  187. 3b says:

    #194 Yep, somebody elses problem. Ah the joys of not owning!!!

  188. Sean says:

    No shoveling for me, Who Ho!

    Speaking of shopping was at the Short Hills Mall today, lots of lookers, but not to many takers. Jewelry looked significantly discounted.

  189. 3b says:

    #199 Ah now Seany! Why weren’t you not the right sort of a man and step up and buy something. It’s for the cause lad it’s for your country. You should have stimulated, you really should have!!

  190. Sean says:

    3b – did you buy a snow shovel for the wife perhaps?

  191. 3b says:

    Sure doesn’t she have 2!! But we don’t need them.

  192. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [167] relo

    I will tag team with Still. I have seen her in action, and I pity the fool that wants to get into it with her.

    Last Nom cage match wasn’t. Devolved into civil discourse with PGC.

    Now I just have to get Schab or Vic to come out and play at a GTG.

    Anyway, time to head for the trains. Spouse’s co. party tonight. Gotta dress.

  193. Schumpeter says:

    Almost a gallon of Knob Creek and plenty of EPL on the telly this weekend. Bring on the snow!

  194. Mocha says:

    “The point is this is a wealthy area and there are more intelligent/successful people here by percentage of population that elsewhere, NYC attracts talent”

    Talent as in the bright sparks that brought us the CMBS market?

  195. Veto That says:

    “The point is this is a wealthy area and there are more intelligent/successful people here by percentage of population that elsewhere, NYC attracts talent”

    actually i totally agree with this but its hard to prove by looking at the state census data alone.
    if we didnt have better earners and a more wealthy economic base then home prices in nj would be down 50% already like ca and nv.
    also alot of our wealth came from ws and just because we have more smarts and money right now doesnt mean that we wont lose it to another city/country in the next 5-10 years.

  196. Mocha says:

    Actually Raleigh, NC was found to be the smartest city in the US. New York City didn’t even make the top ten.

    The discussion was getting a bit much

  197. kettle1 says:

    Veto

    if we didnt have better earners and a more wealthy economic base then home prices in nj would be down 50% already like ca and nv.

    The data doesnt support this statement.

    The Nj population stats suggest we are well on our way to brazilification, a state that is either predominantly wealthy or poor with little middle class in between.

    Just from looking at the areas i personally know, they are massively over leveraged and what is holding them up is not peoples incomes but banks and lenders unwillingness to call in bad loans.

    My personal sample may not be representative, but its a more plausible explanation given the data we have

  198. Pat says:

    talent, schmalent.

    What are the odds of seeing a guy like this and onions like that in a NNJ WLMRT*?

    John?

    http://www.peopleofwalmart.com/?p=7793#comments

  199. 3b says:

    #206 veto About 135k or so are employed in/on Wall St from the file clerk to the CEO, in an are population of about 25 million or so.

  200. Thank you for your help!

  201. BRIDGING says:

    Great loans article.