Is the bottom in? Or a pause before the next dip?

From the Record:

North Jersey homes prices flat in October

Housing prices in the New York metropolitan area, which includes North Jersey, remained flat in October and declined 7.7 percent compared to October 2008, reported the Standard & Poors/Case-Shiller Home-Price Indices.

Case-Shiller does not break down sales by county. But according to figures from the New Jersey Multiple Listing Service, median single-family home prices in Bergen County were $439,500 in October, down 2.9 percent from a year earlier.

In Passaic County, according to figures from the Garden State Multiple Listing Service as reported by Weichert Realtors, the average single-family home sold for $308,000, down 20 percent from a year earlier.

To economist Patrick O’Keefe with J.H. Cohn in Roseland, Case-Shiller’s October numbers for North Jersey show that the market reached its bottom in April and housing prices are up 1.4 percent since then, he said.

“I think it’s apparent in the data that the April point was the bottom,” said O’Keefe. “But the improvement since then – here in North Jersey area – has not been an unbroken upward line.”

The seasonally adjusted data, which he said is more appropriate for real estate, reports small, month-to-month declines of less than 1 percent in prices from August to September and again in October.

From the WSJ:

Home Prices Inch Up, but Outlook Murky

Home prices stabilized in October, but the latest reading on the S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices didn’t dispel fears that prices are heading for a second dip.

The Case-Shiller index of home prices for 20 cities increased a seasonally adjusted 0.4% from September, the fifth consecutive monthly increase. Before seasonal adjustment, the index was unchanged. Home prices are 7.3% lower than a year ago, a less-steep annual rate of decline than in previous months.

The index, which is closely watched because it tracks the sale of the same houses over time, showed home prices in October were at the same level as they were in the fall of 2003 and 29% below the peak in the second quarter of 2006.

“All in all, this report should be described as flat,” David Blitzer, the chairman of the S&P index committee, said in a statement.

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299 Responses to Is the bottom in? Or a pause before the next dip?

  1. grim says:

    From the NYT:

    Hints the Worst May Be Over for Office Space in New Jersey

    The market for office space in New Jersey took a beating in 2009. The vacancy rate swelled to about 22 percent. Rents sank by at least $1 a square foot. And despite its traditional strength as a white-collar job base, the state lost office jobs at a faster clip than the nation at large.

    The question now seems to be whether some faint signs of life will continue in the new year.

    Some office market specialists said that rental rates had fallen so much and vacancy rates had risen so much that more deals were being struck. Craig Eisenhardt, a leasing specialist with CB Richard Ellis, called the situation a “flicker of an uptick.” Based on lease deals from Oct. 1 through the first half of December, he said, “it looks like we are ending the year with a 21.5 percent vacancy rate. That’s down from 22 percent in the third quarter.”

  2. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    N.J. real estate title agencies’ operators indicted in $780K theft

    A Monmouth County grand jury has charged the operators of two title insurance agencies with stealing more than $780,000 from clients who expected the money to be used to pay off mortgages or other debts, authorities said today.

    After the grand jury returned the seven-count indictment on Monday, authorities arrested the agency owners Rebecca Marchese-DePeri-Grande, 37, of Jackson, and her sister, Meredith Miller, 34, of Brick Township, said Monmouth County Prosecutor Luis Valentin.

    The indictment alleges the women, co-owners of Spectrum Title Agency in Freehold, spent the money they obtained on behalf of 15 clients on luxury items, such as sports cars and lavish homes, Valentin said.

  3. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    Housing market downturn opens new frontiers for Clinton-based auction firm

    Max Spann Jr., an executive at Clinton-based Max Spann Auction Co. and president of the New Jersey State Society of Auctioneers, said his firm has had a banner year, in part, due to the collapse of the housing market. Spann talked to Your Business about some trends in the industry:

    Q. How have things changed in the past year?

    A. What we’re seeing in the marketplace is more of a recognition by sellers that the prices of the past are gone and aren’t going to return for quite a while.

    Q. Where do you think will be the biggest drops in real estate prices?

    A. The New York City boroughs and the satellites of New York City, Hudson County, Bergen County are going to go into a major correction. When the rest of the country was in a slump, prices there were going up. It made no sense.

    We’re an early warning system of what is going on in real estate when we start getting calls from a certain region that shows that people are having problems selling real estate. And our phone calls from that region have gone up dramatically in the last year.

    Q. How much of a discount can buyers expect at an auction?

    A. Properties such as vacation homes have adjusted downward more than primary homes. It depends on the type of home.

    Vacation homes tend to see larger discounts than the primary homes, because everyone needs a roof over their head. What we’re seeing for primary homes is anywhere between the 10 and 15 percent adjustment.

    For vacation homes we’re seeing a 20 to 30 percent adjustment.

  4. confused in NJ says:

    Sounds like everyone wants to use a page from the Politicians playbook.

  5. grim says:

    What about this page?

    From CNBC:

    Riskiest Lenders Were Also Fiercest Lobbyists: IMF

    US lenders involved in risky mortgage lending that contributed to the 2007 financial crisis were also some of the fiercest financial lobbyists, according to a report by International Monetary Fund economists.

    In the report “A Fistful of Dollars: Lobbying and the Financial Crisis,” the economists said their studies showed that lenders taking on the most risk were also the most active in lobbying against laws and regulations related to mortgage lending.

    The study did not name any of the lenders but the language in it implied that they were among the biggest banks and mortgage brokerage companies in the nation.

    “Lenders that lobby more intensively on these specific issues have (i) more lax lending standards measured by loan-to-income ratio, (ii) greater tendency to securitize, and (iii) faster growing mortgage loan portfolios,” the report said.

  6. SG says:

    GMAC said to be seeking more U.S. assistance

    GMAC Inc., the home and auto lender, is discussing with the Obama administration an additional aid package of about $3 billion to $4 billion, according to a person familiar with the matter.

    The size of the assistance remains under negotiation, the person said on condition of anonymity because the talks were private. A deal may be reached within days as Detroit-based GMAC incorporates losses from its home loan businesses, the person said. The objective is to restore the company to profit in the first three months of next year.

    GMAC has already received two rounds of government aid totaling $13.5 billion as it struggled with losses at its mortgage operations, which include Residential Capital, known as ResCap.

    The Obama administration regards the lender as crucial to the survival of the U.S. auto industry. General Motors Co., its former parent, and Chrysler Group rely on the firm to finance their vehicle buyers.

    “We have been conducting a strategic review of our business and evaluating options to address the challenges,” GMAC spokeswoman Gina Proia said Tuesday.

    GMAC was ordered in May to raise as much as $9.1 billion in new capital after the government’s stress tests of finance companies. The U.S. gave the lender $3.5 billion toward that goal, leaving a capital hole as large as $5.6 billion.

  7. grim says:

    Hey Obama,

    Where’s my f*cking bailout?

    (Coincidentally, the WMFB grafitti on 21 in downtown Newark was removed. Wonder why, with so many works of art littering the buildings, that this particular one was removed.)

  8. Cindy says:

    http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2010627929_longbeach30.html?syndication=rss

    The Seattle Times

    “Policies at WaMu’s Long Beach Mortgage Invited Fraud”

    “Washington Mutual’s collapse is often blamed on lax lending practices and a slowdown in home prices. Yet records suggest that management practices at WaMu and its subprime lender Long Beach Mortgage may have been largely responsible for the crisis because they enabled fraud to run rampant.”

  9. NJGator says:

    Shore (prev thread) – we actually have 12 liquor licenses in town, and the town eagerly awaits the confirmation that we have 39k residents so they can sell a 13th. We just have way more restaurants than licenses. No complaints here, as it makes fine dining with really good wine more affordable. So are you coming up to go to CulinAriane with me and Stu? If so, we best make the arrangements soon, as it is sure to book up early.

  10. Bystander says:

    Wow, watching replays of Lieberman, Greenspan, and David Walker discussing adding more illegals and H1 visa immigrants as a possible solution for future economic growth. America is truly f-ed.

  11. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Speaking of Cincinnati Chili there’s a place called Delhi Chili where you can get an 8-way – home fries, two eggs your way, your choice of breakfast meat (bacon, sausauge or the Cincinnati classic goetta), spaghetti, chili, beans, onion and cheese. It’s a splended way to end a night of drinking.

  12. cooper says:

    11 diss
    I just got hungry, acid reflux, and an upset stomach all in the time it took to read your post

  13. NJGator says:

    Shore – re Skyline – I don’t think they have enough toppings to truly serve it Tiger Style.

  14. grim says:

    H1b? Really that doesn’t make much sense. Not only do we already have a high unemployment rate, but also a high underemployment rate. Is the argument that we don’t have enough skilled workers in this country?

    How about an h1b program for skilled economists and politicians?

    Given the current state of employment, eliminating h1b entirely is the more prudent measure.

  15. serenity now says:

    Now that house prices have stabilized and everything
    is ok again – this site has suddenly become irrelevant.
    Last one out please turn off the lights.

  16. Cindy (from 247, last thread)-

    The financial sector owns the gubmint. That’s the core reason why I continue to believe there is no hope for anything to get better…short of a citizen army storming the ramparts.

    Burn it down! Burn, baby burn! Burn the mf’er to the ground!

  17. We have a lot more pain to endure before a citizen army can be raised.

  18. crossroads says:

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/12/are-homes-now-cheap.html

    Calculated Risk

    “Are Homes now “Cheap”?”

    “Imagine this simplified example with a buyer willing to pay $1000 per month. With a 5% mortgage rate, the buyer could afford a $186,282 30 year fixed rate mortgage (principal and interest). But the buyer expects to sell the home in seven years, and he expects mortgage rates to be 7% then. That means the new buyer – who will also be willing to pay $1000 per month – can only afford a mortgage of $150,308.”

    “But the real key is to focus on supply and demand, and on the general fundamentals of price-to-income and price-to-rent (not perfect measures). House prices are not currently “cheap”. They just aren’t outrageously expensive nationally anymore.”

  19. Cindy says:

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/the-place-where-reform-goes-to-die/

    From The Big Picture

    Condition-Code Red @ 16

    I posted a warning that it would make you sick to your stomach. It is all just so blatant – makes me want to barf.

  20. 3b (3-Tan) says:

    #15 Nah, just the pause before the refreshing crash.

  21. HE (11)-

    Seems like if a you wanted to induce vomiting, it’d be better just to down a spoonful of Ipecac.

  22. serenity (15)-

    Hardy har. The next wave of devastation will make Fall ’08 seems like boom times.

  23. Cindy (19)-

    It doesn’t make me sick anymore. Came to that realization too long ago. I’m more into thinking that we are getting what we deserve & reaping some divine retribution for allowing ourselves to be co-opted for the price of a bad movie ticket, a grocery cart full of toxic crap and hours lost to Idol and Dancing with the Stars.

  24. Cindy says:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aeCM9Ro8WDpM

    You gotta love this headline:

    “Christie Channels Schwarzeneggar as New Jersey Braces for Cuts”

  25. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Believe me if I put a blindfold on you and made you eat an 8-way, you’d start devouring it after one bite. It’s very tasty. Not good for your arteries, but very tasty.

  26. Cindy says:

    23 Condition-Red – Count me as a naive, uneducated – surprised – reader of the New Jersey Real Estate Report for the last few years. I actually had no idea things ran this way.

    I have held out hope for fundamental change. Sean has helped me stay abreast of the CDO market and many other have educated me as to the “ways of the world.”. I believed politicians were lax in regulation and they would do the right thing and set things straight.

    Needless to say, it has been a tough few years for me…

  27. grim says:

    Why does the media always seem to spin cuts as bad or negative?

    This is GOOD NEWS.

    “New jersey embraces fiscal responsibility”

  28. Cindy says:

    I’m pretty slow this AM – Is “Condition Red” a code name for someone I already know?

  29. Naah. Nothing to see here. Keep stuffing your face with Twinkies and grape soda:

    By LEIRE BARRERA, WSJ

    MADRID—Spanish savings banks have begun selling off the large property portfolios they acquired as collateral from loan defaults, in an effort to improve solvency ratios, a move that risks further falls in property values that could impair the value of their asset books.

    In Spain, the global financial crisis that erupted in 2007 ended a real-estate and construction-based asset boom, plunging the country into a recession that has yet to end, even as many other European economies have returned to growth.

    As the unemployment rate has soared to more than 19%, residential-property buyers have defaulted on loans in massive numbers, as have property developers, overleveraged in a moribund market. As lenders have assumed the collateral on defaulted loans, local financial institutions—particularly unlisted savings banks—have collected properties valued at about €8.5 billion ($12.2 billion) over the past 12 months.

    So far the banks have held on to the vast majority of these properties, hoping an eventual economic recovery will allow the disposal of these assets at acceptable prices—a strategy they successfully adopted during a recession in the early 1990s. Accumulating properties also stopped a sharp drop in prices, avoiding the painful write-downs banks are required to book when the value of their assets falls.

    Until now the strategy has worked. Spanish property prices have been unusually resilient. Average prices have dropped by a modest 9% over the past 12 months. In the last five years of the housing bubble, average prices jumped 71%, according to Housing Ministry data.

    But now banks are facing new demands for liquidity that will force them to sell more property. They are drawing up sales strategies, creating real-estate management divisions and offering discounts in an effort to lure buyers.”

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703510304574625850181454892.html

  30. HE (25)-

    I bet I could blindfold ten people and nine of them would eat warm, moist dog food.

  31. 3b (3-Tan) says:

    #27 Maybe if they had not spend themselves into oblivion,the school districts would have the money for basic repairs, insted of massive new additions.

  32. Cindy says:

    27 – Grim – Agreed. We had to do it. Just be ready for crowded classrooms, less teachers and city employees. We don’t know where the next round of cuts will hit but suspect furlough days and pay reductions.

    We are doing the best we can to keep up with the cuts but state revenues keep dropping.

  33. grim (27)-

    For the same reason the media spins dropping housing prices as negative.

    Not only should the banksters be allowed to loot the Treasury until it is empty…we should all watch the robbery and cheer them on.

    We are a nation of fat, loser, self-destructive junkies.

  34. You could replace O with Mugabe, and very little would change.

    Other than a few hundred people getting their arms hacked off.

  35. Cindy says:

    Clot are you Condition-Code Red? Seriously, I’m less than sharp these days – Give a girl a break.
    Thanks.

  36. Cindy says:

    Thanks Man…

  37. Cindy, do you think your school will move toward recommending that more kids be medicated/sedated when class sizes grow?

  38. grim says:

    I’d like to eat at Mortons every night, but I can’t afford it, so I don’t.

    I’d like to live in a Four Seasons, but I can’t afford it, so i don’t.

    I’d like to drive a Ferrari, but I can’t afford it, so I don’t.

    Why is government held to a different standard. We just can’t afford the level of government we have and the services that it provides.

    I’m sorry, I know it is terrible, buy we just can’t afford it.

    Do we want more teachers, cops, firefighters, social services. Absolutely, but how is that really any different from Mortons every night?

  39. If there’s another wave of diagnosing ADD/sedating kids as a result of growing class sizes, you have to like Novartis as a stock play. They make Ritalin.

  40. BC Bob says:

    Cindy [19],

    Same as it ever was. It does not matter whose #ss occupies that seat in the White House. The banksters/lobbyists are in control.

  41. In ten years, “elite” may be a term that describes anyone who is not permanently sedated.

  42. nw says:

    Speaking of H1B, an NJ judge just decided he has authority to censor the entire internet.

    http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9142806/Court_orders_three_H_1B_sites_disabled

  43. BC Bob says:

    “Is the bottom in? Or a pause before the next dip?”

    27 years of a credit induced binge, balance sheets obliterated, yet recovery in 2 years. Hilarious.

    This bust will go much longer, duration, and the declines much worse than most can imagine. The bottom will be in when absolutely nobody will discussing it, they all be too busy puking out at the bottom.

  44. lisoosh aka Tan-tric says:

    Problem with #24 –

    “If the proposal for New Jersey pushes costs down to local governments and schools, mayors and educators may have to choose between raising taxes and eliminating park maintenance and trash collection.

    …..Reducing the payroll for current state employees, which Treasury Department spokesman Tom Vincz said is $4.5 billion this year, and $2 billion in health-care costs for retirees is off limits unless unions agree to them, said Hetty Rosenstein, state director of the Communications Workers of America,”

    What will happen is that the services we actually pay for will be cut while money is channeled into taking care of some ex-NJians varicose veins in Florida.

    Sheer utter blackmail.

  45. Cindy says:

    38 – Sedation? Not a trend I’m seeing in my school. More 504s – education plans. We actually retain students who need an extra year in my district.

    I am seeing more “environmental” disabilities. Home life – problems – dislocated youth/ unparented. We need counseling and extra after school programs to help these kids. All indications are that those programs will be under the pressure of financial constraints.

  46. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Thanks for the feedback on those scenarios I laid out yesterday. I think I knew where I was going with this, but I wanted to make sure I wasn’t overlooking something obvious.

    Also, I tried to get to the Jersey Nickname Generator page, but my browser was hijacked to the Hillbilly Nickname page. It looked interesting…..until I found out that the only two choices were Bubba & Sissy. HA!

  47. 38 Clot

    Kids are already over-medicated.

  48. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Clot 22 Hanging my hat on that, hope you are spot on. Still waiting to get a house like I sold in 06 for my 98 buy price.
    That being said the taxes on that house went from 3200 to 5400. I expect rates to be the 7-8% in a year same as I received then so even if prices go that low an extra what 200 a month to own it. Plus homeowners ins up to. Don’t like the numbers, short time horizon, only 6 yrs to go no kids in school. My numbers say rent but if they go down enough who knows.

  49. 40 Clot
    That’s exactly what’s going to happen.

  50. 3b (3-Tan) says:

    #40 growing up in NYC we had 35 sometimes 40 kids in a class in Catholic gramamr school, but we had discipline. Not saying it was ideal, but I laugh when parents become horrified that ther may be 25 kids in a class for a year or 2. Its no big deal.

    Insteed of worrying about class sizes,and fake blue ribbons. If you want to make sure your child does well in school, stay involved, make sure their homework is done, and hold them accountable. And keep in mind more than a few of their teachers are clueless. I laugh at these so called blue ribbon schools, most do not even have a mandatory summer reading program any more.

  51. 46 Cindy

    I am seeing more “environmental” disabilities. Home life – problems – dislocated youth/ unparented. We need counseling and extra after school programs to help these kids. All indications are that those programs will be under the pressure of financial constraints.

    And these are the first to get cut. My position was cut back in my last school. But somehow there was still money for 4 music teachers. Go figure.

  52. Essex says:

    39. 1. End prohibition. 2. Police violent crime. 3. Fix Infrastructure. 4. Clean house in gubmint. 5. Kill the fed.

  53. Essex says:

    51. Private schools to thrive if/when that occurs. Vouchers may prevail.

  54. 3b (3-Tan) says:

    #46 CIndy: We need licenses for parents to have children. There are too many parents who simply should not be parents.

  55. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    BC how was Krogh’s?

  56. NJGator says:

    Cindy – re Montclair/Libraries – our current Council/Mayor are completely spineless. All it will take are 5 affluent elderly people from Upper Montclair to show up to a Council meeting to say they absolutely can’t live without the Upper Montclair Library Branch because they play bridge there once a month and the Council won’t have the guts to shut it down. Not only will they keep it open, but my money is on them mandating some extra bike racks be installed as well.

    Montclair is trying to channel California though because there’s now open talk of circulating a recall petition on the current Mayor.

  57. Cindy (46)-

    Maybe you can start an afterschool Fight Club.

  58. lost (48)-

    If your mouth will open to accept the pill, you are not overmedicated.

  59. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    3b 55 You wouldn’t believe some of the winners I run into up here.

  60. 59 TCCR

    If you have some extra, stop being stingy and send them this way!

  61. BC Bob says:

    MIW [56],

    Great place. Picked a bad day to go there, the wind chill off the lake was brutal. I was the only nut walking the boardwalk.

  62. crossroads says:

    56

    what was going on at Krogh’s? there was an hour wait at 730 on a Teusday.

  63. 3b (51)-

    Some of the best classes I ever took were 100 and 200-levels at UNC. Routinely 125-150 students per class.

    Yes, I know it’s not 3rd grade, but you are spot on. Humans of all ages tend to respond well when simple discipline and basic expectations are put in place.

  64. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Cross 64 Last night, have no idea BC just mentioned he would be up there as he knows I live close. You are close also I gather?

  65. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    BC 63 Wouldn’t have braved that yesterday.

  66. 3b (51)-

    Reading leads to thinking. Thinking leads to independent thought. Independent thought makes people dangerous to TPTB. Ergo, no reading programs.

    My daughter goes to a “Blue Ribbon” school. Her reading program is laughable. I force her to read in the Summer, and she hates me for it.

    “I laugh at these so called blue ribbon schools, most do not even have a mandatory summer reading program any more.”

  67. Cindy says:

    52 – Lost – It is a crime.

    You have to look at the whole kid. If they are worried about not having the money for lunch, or where they are sleeping that night, you could care less about my reading lesson for the day.

    I give them snacks, (no breakfast), lunch money, in many cases wash their faces and hands before the day begins,
    track down library books then pay the fine so they can have library privileges…These are parents that don’t have the time to see to these matters. Not folks who qualify for free lunches.

    The real rub – what makes it so hard really for me is that I try my hardest to teach boundaries and respect. The basics. We don’t lie, cheat or steal. More often than not, I get a call from the parent asking why I am picking on their child. I have to document everything. It took three separate incidents this year before a parent finally could believe that her precious daughter was an out and out liar.

    The time involved with extra calls, emails etc. I must make to maintain these boundaries and teach these lessons is mind boggling.

  68. 3b says:

    #60 Mike: Sorry still not following either post.

  69. 3b says:

    #69 Cindy: You should not have to go through that nonsense. Parents should be licensed to have children. Public schools should be allowed to discipline and or expel students.

  70. crossroads says:

    I’m on the west shore. I wound up eating at Casa Mias and parked in the general lot lt and it was a looong walk to the car. brrr

  71. Cindy says:

    71 – 3b – It is the new reality. Society is asking that of their schools. I wish it were not so but it simply is.

  72. #48 – Kids are already over-medicated

    Thank you lost… And thank you too Cindy…
    I don’t think most people realize the psychological impact medicating a kid has.
    You are probably never more aware of your own ‘differentness’ than as a child. Telling them they are so strange and other that they need to be medicated leaves a huge impact, even if it’s never stated in those words.

  73. 3b says:

    #68 I always encourage my children to think for themselves, and to read, read, read.Blue ribbon is a bunch of nonsense.

  74. 69 Cindy

    I agree completely. So many people want to blame schools, teachers, anyone else. But parents really need to take responsibility for their kids. Cleaning their faces, paying their library fines, reading with them, reading notes from teachers, making sure their homework is done, etc. are parents’ responsibilities. Like I always say, anyone can have a kid but I need a license for my dog.

  75. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    3b 70, 60 in response to your post
    : “We need licenses for parents to have children. There are too many parents who simply should not be parents.”
    As`far as either just addressed you in that one, or maybe I need more coffee.

  76. 3b says:

    #73 Cindy: True, and much of it comes from the people who allegedly should know better. It is not just low income people.

    You bought these children into the world, you take care of them.

  77. 74 tosh

    You can’t be “different” and be in school. There’s no respect for individuality. However, I will also tell you that I’ve seen quite a few instances where children really do need to be medicated and in special programs with intensive therapy and parents outright refuse. This is almost always were some type of abuse is happening/has happened in the home. Parents don’t want that to get out so they refuse services.

  78. tosh (74)-

    Just take those kids and put them in the infantry, so that we can sustain our endless wars.

    Problem solved.

  79. 3b says:

    #77 mike: I was referring to your post about buying again (when) vs. continuing to rent. Did not quite follow your thinking.

  80. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    crossroads 72 I didn’t know you were so close. Wag says he is down the block I live in Vernon & kettle is in striking distance. How about we set up a highlands GTG at Krogh’s?

  81. Amazing that people get all weird when a program of eugenics is proposed.

    Too Third Reich? Many US states did it for years.

  82. #78 & #73 – And there’s the problem, you can’t force them to be parents (good or bad) and no matter what we’ll have to deal with the consequences.
    IDK, maybe we end up with no choice but trying to use the schools because the other option is deal with these kids once they hit the prisons.

  83. NJ Hinterlands Redneck Report.

  84. #80 – You’ve been listening to the DKs again, haven’t you?

  85. Eugenics + forced conscription = problem solved

  86. tosh (86)-

    Never stopped.

    Jello has always been a role model for me.

  87. crossroads says:

    well it sounds good but I have a small window of opportunity to socialize because I have homework to check faces to clean… but let me whats good for everyone and I’ll adjust.

  88. #79 – You can’t be “different” and be in school.

    No, you can’t. Some kids are though…
    And you are right, some kids absolutely need something to calm them down.

  89. Jello has always been a role model for me.

    Like a Jello mold? hahahahahah! Ok, I’ll stop… nowhere near enough sleep recently.

  90. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    3b 81 Oh, just that even if prices go down to 98 level with increase in taxes even at same interest rate cost more. It is not about price it is these dam ever increasing taxes. When daughter is done with HS I can get out of this area go somewhere with lower taxes. With a 6 yr time frame I am better off renting.
    No up side to own,whether I rent or buy the money is gone. I can rent bigger & cheaper.

  91. kettle1 says:

    Bottom?

    HAHAHA ROFLMAO!

  92. kettle1 says:

    Question for the collective:

    would like to get a road bike and plan on doing a triathlon this summer. Have only mountain bike din the past and would like to get a recommendation for a road bike that wont cost more then a car and would be suitable for entry level triathlon and general road biking.

    I am about 200lbs in my prime (need to lose a few to get back to that) so a bike that can take the punishment that that weight puts on a bike, would be a consideration as well.

    i.m looking for function not flash. any suggestions?

  93. Feh. Triathlons are for neurotics. Sit back on your couch and have a fruity drink.

  94. crossroads says:

    93 miw

    it seems to me you would have to put about %30-%40 down to have mortgage, taxes = rent. and of course w/ rates at historical lows prices will come down when rates adjust to more normal levels in the next few years

  95. RU says:

    (76) I agree. When I was a kid. If my teacher or principal ever called my house, I knew I was going to get my head handed to me. Parents back then more often than not believed the teacher over any child. Now, it’s totally opposite. My sister-in-law is a teacher and if she ever has to speak to a students parent, they always blame her. Same with the cops also. My best friend is a detective in a well to do town. There were a rash of burglaries in town about a year ago. Winds up that it was a couple of township kids who were 13 & 14 years old breaking into the houses. Both kids came from well off families and had every material thing they could want. My friend goes to talk to the mother of one of the kids and her first response was not my kid and refuses to allow him to interview the kid. Luckily the father was old school and when he found out, he grabbed the kid and brought him to the PD himself.

  96. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Crossroads 90 As far as wag he/she will hopefully read this & respond. I am good just about any Saturday night or a Sunday afternoon would work. If you want my email just ask grim (please forward).
    Kettle you in, it’s close. It is usually to far a trip for me to go to the GTGs.
    An hour or 2 on the road after drinking is not a good idea.

    clot 85 Thanks buddy.

  97. kettle1 says:

    code-red, clot

    i am a masochist at heart, nothing like the euphoric high you get from pushing yourself past the point physical collapse.

    Its hard to do, but the high is F’ing unbelievable. Last time i did that i was running on the high for a few days after my adventure race.

    Am jonsing for the high again

  98. kettle1 says:

    Mike,

    Come again? whats the plan?

  99. "Bones" Deplume says:

    [95] ket,

    Can’t recommend names, but be sure you get a long enough frame (I have a GT, which has a short frame so you feel more hunched and it is a harder ride). Also, make sure it has the granny gears for hillclimbing (as a mtn biker, you probably know that), and then it’s just about weight. Less is better.

    I think if you put more thought into it than that, you are overanalyzing. But I used to keep up with road racers on a Schwinn Varsity (not long, mind you, but I did), so I am pretty old school, low tech on that stuff.

  100. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Cross roads 97 That about sums it up, rather stay liquid.Even with a whopping 60% down we are talking a 550 house up here, it would run
    2600 a month to own this house. I rent for a quarter of that.

  101. "Bones" Deplume says:

    [88] clot

    “Jello has always been a role model for me.”

    Funny, it was always a dessert for me.

    Remember when Jello ran (or wanted to run) for mayor? One of his platforms was to force bankers to wear clown suits.
    Think he was ahead of his time???

  102. 3b says:

    #93 Mike: Understand. I am almost done with my last in HS, but I need to be close to NYC work/family. Everytime I come close to looking at throwing a bid in, I look at the taxes of 10k or more and say why??

  103. crossroads says:

    98

    my brother is a cop and has some great stories of parents in total denial. my personal favorite is when he responded to a 911 call for an od. the mother answers the door says you have wrong address. he double checks and tells her the call came from inside the house and asks who is home? husband. and her son and some of his friends are over. sure enough 1 kid is laying unconscious on the bed. Mother says they don’t do drugs . He points out the mirror w/ straw and powder says what do you think that is? she responds do you really think so? parents have no idea what is going on.

  104. 3b says:

    #103 mike: You could always go FHA.

  105. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Ket 101 GTG at Krogh’s So far Crossroads,Wag live in Sparta you & I close so hence the plan.

  106. kettle1 says:

    Code Red

    Lets just go the whole philosopher warrior route. Provide free higher education to any level desired at the any school you can get admission to, so long as you provide X years of military service, with training to be done concurrently with schooling.

    Give a whole knew meaning to the term corporate raid.

    And lets require that any individual who wishes to eligible for office to have completed this program. Charges of corruption will be settled through hand to hand combat. death is an acceptable outcome of said “investigation”

  107. scribe, The Princess of Paramus says:

    #108

    Translation, please?

    :)

  108. "Bones" Deplume says:

    [106] cross

    That parent is utterly clueless. Utterly.

    One time, I overheard a conversation and came to the crashing realization that I was not getting away with squat. My old man knew EVERYTHING I was into, and was joking about how I thought I was soooo clever (but wasn’t).

    Fact was, Dad was not only a major hellraiser in his own right as a youth (put me to shame), but he later became a cop in the same town where he grew up and we lived. He was so wired in that I couldn’t buy a joint without him know it.

    But there was more upside than downside to that. First, he knew I was nowhere near being a true delinquent. Second, I could (and did) get away with a lot more because every cop in a 10 mile radius knew me as “********’s boy.”

  109. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    3b 107 yes `3% down, those payments really scary! ($4100 a month) But I’ll just make 1 or 2 then live free for 2 years.

  110. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Scribe 110 Trying to plan a hinterland GTG at Krogh’s in Sparta. As a few of us live up here the Hoboken & other GTGs are to far. All are welcome of course.

  111. scribe, The Princess of Paramus says:

    cancel #110

    Just read the earlier posts.

  112. scribe, The Princess of Paramus says:

    Mike,

    Thanks for the response. I have a vague notion of where Sparta is. That would be too far for me.

  113. kettle1 says:

    mike,

    Re kroghs,

    sure, when we looking at?

  114. scribe, The Princess of Paramus says:

    Nom,

    I’m putting together a 40-year high school reunion.

    All the juvenile delinquents from my class became one of two things – dropouts or cops.

  115. Bystander says:

    nw #43,

    That is some scary sh*t. Here was the exchange from 12/17 between Lieberman and Greenspan.

    Grim,

    I completely agree. Lets allow H1 visa people in Congress. We can pay them half the salary and almost no benefits. These “brilliant PHDs” could do no worse. Would love for someone to pose that question to that fraud, smug idiot Lieberman.

    http://thinkprogress.org/2009/12/17/greenspan-immigration-economy/

  116. 3b says:

    #112 mike: Where are prices in your are now (what year are they back to)?

  117. kettle1 says:

    CLot,

    Becoming a warrior society makes a lot of sense at this point. It makes it much easier to wage constant war give the steady supply of competent soldiers, you can still have consumption based on glamorization of the warrior lifestyle, crime goes down as a mugging becomes “exercise”. And last but least we can take the final step in making the NFL modern day gladiator games.

  118. freedy says:

    was in edgewater last night . no recession
    party on …

  119. kettle1 says:

    Anyone know where to get a hold of historical intraday data sets (not charts) for DJIA, S&P, or NASDAQ, without paying out the nose?

  120. 3b says:

    #121 They partied on the Titanic too as it was going down.

  121. "Bones" Deplume says:

    [117] scribe

    True dat! The main protagonist in one of the more felonious escapades that I was involved in during my “youth” (been over 20 years so I think the statute of limitations has long since run) is now a cop!

  122. prtraders2000 says:

    My Dad has a waterfront shack in Brick that he uses as a summer home. The place doesn’t even have heat. He just got a notice that his property taxes are going to 9k from 7k. Ouch! The taxes on the newer much bigger waterfront homes must be insane.

  123. "Bones" Deplume says:

    [120] kettle

    “And last but least we can take the final step in making the NFL modern day gladiator games.”

    You mean they aren’t already??? Maybe we should let them carry axes.

  124. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Kettle 116 maybe Crossroads can throw out a few dates.I am good this Saturday or Sunday afternoon, early evening, or later.
    Need wag to read this but don’t think he/she is on.

  125. kettle1 says:

    Bones,

    I was thinking of stepping it up to battle maces, war axes, and pikes.

  126. kettle1 says:

    Mike,

    out of town this weekend….

  127. "Bones" Deplume says:

    [43]

    The news account of that decision is disturbing. I imagined it was going to be a USDC judge, but a superior court hack?

    I am no expert on IP law, but ordering host sites to disable a URL because the URL won’t disclose a name concerning a commercial breach that did not even occur on these sites doesn’t pass the smell test on a whole bunch of levels.

  128. "Bones" Deplume says:

    [128] ket

    Ah, pikes. Makes the Irish blood in one break out in song:

    “By the risin’ of the moon, by the risin’ of the moon,

    And the pikes must be together by the risin’ of the moon”

  129. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    3b 119 generally all over the place some at 03, a few lower, some still at insane 06 levels. I’d say 02-03 for the most part. 30% decline depending on type of house. 1 sale over 500k in 6 months my agent friend told me. There are a glut of Mcmansions in town. The bottom line is the only ones that are moving are under 200k & priced below the 02-03 range. For 320 you can have a real nice colonial 3-4 bedroom with 9k taxes & natural gas(a rarity up here). On the other side some insane people still trying to get 300 for a bilevel with 6-7 taxes. it will take time to shake out.

  130. vodka (128)-

    Never discount the utility of a good battle mace.

  131. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    kettle no sweat shoot for weekend of the 9th I’m good Sat after 5 & all day Sunday.
    Crossroads how about you?

  132. freedy says:

    raising stops on gs

  133. I’ve got a sword, a battlex and a mace as well as some torture devices. Can I come to the party? :)

  134. db says:

    I don’t know if this has been posted already but I see MSNBC just put out it’s list fot the Decade’s top 10 news conferences ….Were # 1 again …1. McGreevey’s ‘My truth is I am a gay American’…http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/12/28/2161615.aspx

  135. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Lost you are scaring me.Some wild shit going on in SI. Everybody up here boring, just have guns.

  136. BC Bob says:

    MIW,

    Only McDonald’s I’ve been in, Sparta, where all workers speak English and all are white, most of them blond/blue. Very weird.

  137. I’ve got a sword, a battlex and a mace as well as some torture devices.

    I do 2d10 damage and have a natural THAC0 of 10!

    /Yeah, I just went there. 1st Edition too.

  138. yikes says:

    serenity now says:
    December 30, 2009 at 8:10 am

    Now that house prices have stabilized and everything
    is ok again – this site has suddenly become irrelevant.
    Last one out please turn off the lights.

    “Housing price have stabilized”
    “everything is OK”

    this according to whom?

  139. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Yikes140 the tooth fairy.

  140. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Oh well time to make the donuts. Catch you all later.

  141. crossroads says:

    134 miw

    It shouldn’t be a problem but I never know the full schedule. Let me just say there is a band on Sat. nights which can be quite loud and I’m not sure what kind of football crowd gathers on Sunday. That being said its almost always a wait but they might do reservations not sure. Oh and band doesn’t go on till 10ish

  142. lisoosh aka Tan-tric says:

    Lost -your post at #79 is heartbreaking.

  143. yikes says:

    grim, what are your thoughts on the Lexus RX?

    http://philadelphia.craigslist.org/ctd/1514076217.html

    im sure i can beat this guy down to 9500 … right?

    what is your go-to site for car/SUV reviews? preferably, one where you dont have to pay …

  144. NJGator says:

    My favorite campaign poster of all time (replace asterisk with an e – original link put me in mod):

    http://www.russell.org/russpics/scr*wed.gif

  145. NJGator says:

    The best campaign poster of all time:

    http://tinyurl.com/yb98qc7

  146. grim says:

    What I’m wondering is how the hell the legislation preventing H1b bankers made it into the economic recovery act (arra).

    Rather, the need to prove you can’t hire a qualified citizen first.

  147. 139 Tosh
    I don’t even understand what you just wrote. :)

  148. 138 Mike
    It’s not SI, it’s just me. :)

  149. 144 Lisoosh

    I should probably refrain from talking about work here. You wouldn’t believe some of the things I deal with.

  150. NJGator says:

    db 137 – McGreevey doesn’t understand the meaning of the word truth.

  151. #148 – Sorry lost, it was a joke myself and Gary Gygax would have enjoyed.

  152. NJGator says:

    Manhattan Soup Kitchen Serving Caviar

    NEW YORK (AP) — There’s something special on the menu at a Manhattan soup kitchen.

    Those eating lunch at the Broadway Community Inc. facility on Wednesday are getting a taste of the luxury life – thanks to a gift of caviar from an anonymous donor.

    Chef Michael Ennes expects about 150 people at lunch. The caviar is being served along with sour cream and egg on cornmeal blinis.

    http://www.wcbs880.com/Manhattan-Soup-Kitchen-Serving-Caviar/6001956

  153. NJGator says:

    Safe – do you think the realtor staged it?

  154. safeashouses says:

    #155 NJGator,

    Trulia shows a dozen photos.

    i actually think if that house is structurally sound it could be a great place.

    I like those pre WW2 colonials.

  155. safeashouses says:

    You can see more photos of this one on gsmls.

    http://www.trulia.com/property/41744071-398-Elmwood-Ave-Maplewood-NJ-07040

    I really do like these older houses in Maplewood. Lots of cool details.

    Seems like taxes are 10k a more for anything I like though.

  156. NJGator says:

    More proof that Zillow is cr*p. Stu and I looked at this place while it was on the market. It just sold in Nov for $525k. The zestimate, however, still stands at $889,500(Probably because the house was wildly overassessed). Apparently actual sales prices are not factored into Zillow’s algorithms.

    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/114-Mountain-Ave-Summit-NJ-07901/40026268_zpid/

  157. danzud aka D-Train says:

    Safe,

    Is the header “Great Crack Den!!!!!”

  158. kettle1 says:

    lost 136.

    Only if you promise to bring the torture devices ;)

  159. NJGator says:

    Safe – 10k in taxes is low for Maplewood. Beware – their taxes can make Montclair’s look almost reasonable.

  160. theo says:

    This board today is cofirming my suspicion that many suburban police officers, had law enforcement not been an option, would be members of an organized crime syndicate instead.

  161. NJGator says:

    Nothing like a nice pre-NYE bomb scare in Times Square to keep things interesting.

    http://twitpic.com/vw4d3/full

  162. 3b says:

    Grim Is it still too early for north Jersey house price predictions for 2010??

  163. NJGator says:

    Police Investigating Suspicious Vehicle in Times Square

    The NYPD bomb squad is investigating a van abandoned in Times Square which officials say has apparently not been moved for some time.

    The bomb squad is using a robot-based camera to approach the vehicle. Police say the area around 42nd Street between Seventh Avenue and Broadway has been blocked off as a precaution.

    The van is a 1992 Dodge, and has tinted windows. A placard from a nonexistent law enforcement agency is on the dashboard. It has no license plates.

    Police responded around 8:30 a.m. after a 911 call about a suspicious van. Security is tight as the New Year approaches.

    We’ll have more as it comes in to the WCBS newsroom.

    http://www.wcbs880.com/Police-Investigating-Suspicious-Vehicle-in-Times-S/6003421

  164. lisoosh aka Tan-tric says:

    Safe, I agree, that house is the kind I like too, good layout, solid materials, comfortable room sizes.

  165. lisoosh aka Tan-tric says:

    #166 – talking about the hoarder house on 153

  166. Nurburgringer says:

    Yikes – might want to check out a ’98 Grand Cherokee 5.9 (only year with this engine).
    Bought mine for $4k 3 years ago, now with 150k miles it looks and drives practically like new (really).
    These were $40k (and the fastest SUV in the world) in 1998. Won’t ride like a Lexus, but is plenty comfortable and more than ready to go offroad if needed.
    Mileage sucks at <15mpg, but for the buy in price there’s lots left over for fuel.
    http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/1998-Jeep-Grand-Cherokee-Limited-5-9-trades-offers_W0QQitemZ190358414400QQcmdZViewItemQQptZUS_Cars_Trucks?hash=item2c523ee440

  167. yikes says:

    NJGator says:
    December 30, 2009 at 12:15 pm

    More proof that Zillow is cr*p. Stu and I looked at this place while it was on the market.

    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/114-Mountain-Ave-Summit-NJ-07901/40026268_zpid/

    that house is violently ugly, gator. my first thought: the nickname for that place has to be the chocolate house

  168. skep-tic says:

    IMO, unless one of the following happens to a material degree, we have seen the bottom:

    1. Higher unemployment

    2. Higher interest rates (somewhat likely)

    3. Removal of gov’t stimulus (tied to #2).

  169. lisoosh aka Tan-tric says:

    WTF happened to Warren? Went up there for the first time in years. Looks like the McMansion Fairy took a cr@p up there once a day for years.

    Ruined.

  170. Stu says:

    Yikes,

    Get rid of the black shutters and it would have looked 100% better. Personally, I really don’t care much what a house looks like on the outside. I’m way more interested in the layout on the inside and how suitable it would be for entertaining. The big issue with that house is that it has a deep river/creek splitting the rear yard in half. Nothing like paying high property taxes on land that you need to construct a bridge to get to.

  171. lisoosh aka Tan-tric says:

    this is funny:

    http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2009/12/30/facebook-fugitive.html

    An escaped British prisoner is taunting police over the internet, using his Facebook page.

    Convicted burglar Craig Lynch, 28, has been updating his profile regularly since he escaped from prison in Suffolk three months ago.

    He has been mocking authorities for failing to find him and openly musing about moving across the Atlantic. His profile picture shows him making an obscene gesture at the camera.

  172. skep-tic says:

    #39

    “Do we want more teachers, cops, firefighters, social services. Absolutely, but how is that really any different from Mortons every night?”

    actually, we can have the same number of public employees. just fire them all and make them all apply (and anyone else who wants to) with reduced comp/benefits.

  173. Simon says:

    #95

    K1:

    I bought a bike last Feb to do a week long 450 mile ride across Iowa over the Summer. Had not had a bike since college. Rode 800 miles to train plus the 450. I am about your size. For me the Trek 1.2 was the bike. Its the entry level Trek bike so while nothing super a great bike. About 800 bucks. Good function, granny gear, various frame sizes to fit you comfortably. The higher you go in price the components get better and lighter, but whenever I wanted lighter losing my own weight was better and healthier than a lighter bike. Why save 3 lbs on a bike for $300 more when I could stand to lose 5lbs. Bought the bike at High Gear in Sterling, I recommend, very helpful they don’t upsell, good service.

    Skip the triathlon….do RAGBRAI

  174. dreamtheaterr says:

    grim says:
    December 30, 2009 at 8:05 am

    H1b? Really that doesn’t make much sense. Not only do we already have a high unemployment rate, but also a high underemployment rate. Is the argument that we don’t have enough skilled workers in this country?

    The problem is that the H1 is not a temporary visa, it’s a path to permanent residency. 99% of people who come to the US on H1 aspire to become permanent residents. Once they do, they AND their spouse are a permanent addition to the US workforce, so 2 jobs are being displaced via 1 H1 visa.

    So though H1 visa is classified a non-immigrant visa, it is hogwash.

  175. lisoosh aka Tan-tric says:

    Got to be as bad here, in fact maybe worse because the UK at least has the safety net of health care.:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/6911579/Parents-use-savings-to-support-adult-children.html

    Parents use savings to support adult children
    Parents are using thousands of pounds of their own savings to support their grown up children amid the recession, it is disclosed.

    During the past year, they withdrew a fifth of their hard-earned savings to help their adult children with living costs and unexpected expenses.

    The figures are a fresh blow to parents who are being squeezed financially from all directions as they save for their own retirement, provide care for elderly parents and fund the so-called boomerang generation of children who find themselves unable or unwilling to live away from the family home.

  176. 3b says:

    #171 skeptic: I think it is far too early to call a bottom. Even if unemployment stays at around 10%.

    1.Where are all the new buyers coming from?

    2. Rates are going up, (already happening) how far who knows this early. But 6% I believe is a given, and 7% is reasonable.

    3.Fannie/Freddie/FHA are all tighting standards.

    4. How mcuh future demand was pulled in with the tax credit. And the tax credit appears to be dead after April 20, 2010 (although I would not be surprised if there was another extension.

    5. Property taxes will continue to rise,and if Christie only implements some of the cuts he is talking about, property taxes will soar.

    I do nto think there is any real reason t assume we ar at bottom yet.

  177. Barbara aka B-Cat says:

    unwilling to live away from the family home? Time to do what the rest of the world does, multigenerational living. Evryone works and pays into the household. Its how asian immigrants buy multiple businesses and become successful.

  178. Juice Springsteen HEHEHE says:

    re 180,

    3b I’ll add

    6) The inability of current homeowners to “trade up” because buyers will not buy at past year’s inflated prices.

  179. skep-tic says:

    with all due respect, the numbers from multiple sources show the decline slowing to near-flatlining over the past two quarters. This is mostly due to the unprecedented intervention of the feds in the mortgage market, but massive gov’t is the current reality and it does not seem to be going away.

    Does anyone really believe that 3.5% down and juiced up conforming loan limits of $729k are going away next year, or the that the home buyer tax credit won’t be renewed or that the fed won’t continue to intervene to keep mortgage rates low if they start to shoot up and threaten banks’ balance sheets? We are dealing with a gov’t that never says “no” to spending.

  180. Juice Springsteen HEHEHE says:

    One more:

    7) The deflationary impact several years of 8-10%+ unemployment is going to have on wages going forward.

  181. Nicholas says:

    I do 2d10 damage and have a natural THAC0 of 10!

    Yeah, I just went there. 1st Edition too.

    Tosh,

    Thank you this made my day. And here I thought I was the only one. I hope that everyone is having a wonderful holiday season. I know I haven’t posted in a while but I do lurk from time to time.

    For those not familiar…

    2d10 describes the amount and type of dice rolled to determine damage. Thus two ten sided dice would be rolled in Tosh’s case.

    THAC0 means “To Hit Armor Class Zero” a measure of how reliably Tosh could strike at someone with natural (no extra) armor. Thus he would have to roll a 10 or above on a 20 sided dice to strike a character with zero AC…a 55% chance to hit.

    These are both quaint references to the origional 1st edition rules of Dungeons and Dragons.

  182. Bystander says:

    Dream 177,

    Exactly right. I work at an IB in process change. 40% of my group is Indian, former H1B holders who received permanent status. They came here because of their technical skills but moved out of IT ASAP. Most are in cushier, project management roles now. These jobs could easily go to Americans with PM/finance/accounting backgrounds. Americans just can’t compete with the constant pool of slave labor in India. The candle is burning on both ends for American workers – our company brings in H1 visas for IT roles and exports CFO support roles to Pune. Greenspan thinks this is good for the economy.

  183. Stu says:

    Geeks!

    :P

  184. Schumpeter says:

    Just roughly calculated that I am worth more dead than alive.

  185. freedy says:

    and just how high can the property taxes
    go in NJ? nobody will be left ,,except
    who?

  186. Schumpeter says:

    3b (180)-

    How much future demand was pulled in with the tax credit?

    All of it. And, it was all over and done by 11/1/09. The $6,500 for current owners is a farce and a non-starter, since these people have to sell their current homes first.

    Think the last three years have seen a drop? Ain’t seen nuthin’ yet. It’s about to get really hairy and really nasty.

  187. skep-tic says:

    What is the catalyst for further drops?

  188. Schumpeter says:

    skep (183)-

    All those sources are dead wrong.

    We are at the edge of a violent and unprecedented collapse.

  189. Schumpeter says:

    skep (183)-

    None of this matters now. The real problem is, the demand has dried up to virtually nothing…and what little demand there is comes from extremely sketchy buyers.

    There will be no bid from smart money until prices collapse- then overshoot- 1999-2000 levels.

    Until then, I will sit back, drink whiskey and watch soccer. ‘Cause there ain’t nothing else to do, except the odd short sale.

  190. Schumpeter says:

    skep (192)-

    Removal of legitimate demand from the NJ housing market.

    I’m not talking demand in crashed-out markets…just the ones- like ours- still engaged in the charade that recovery can be fashioned from a set of completely f’ed-up fundamentals.

  191. yikes says:

    nurburg – nice call on the Cherokee.

    i really like that model. tough to find ones from 98 with under 125k miles, but im going to look. it probably would be a beach/travel/snow vehicle, so under 10k miles per year.

    thanks again!

  192. skep-tic says:

    I guess it all depends on how we define recovery. I don’t think we are going to come roaring back, I just don’t think there is a near term risk of renewed crash. We are basically quickly becoming very like a western European economy with high structural unemployment and low growth (and worse food and no t-pless beaches and less vacation time). Notably, house prices in Europe are still sky high.

  193. Schumpeter says:

    Am I clairvoyant, or what?

    FLORHAM PARK, N.J. (AP) — Chad Ochocinco is ready for Darrelle Revis, with a touchdown celebration planned for the Meadowlands.

    The chatty Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver took some playful shots at the Jets cornerback in an entertaining conference call with the New York media Wednesday, saying Revis couldn’t cover him “in a brown paper bag on a corner of a Manhattan street inside a phone booth.”

    The friends are expected to be matched up during the game Sunday night. Ochocinco insists coach Marvin Lewis told him the Bengals are “playing to win.”

    Ochocinco said he has a scoring celebration planned in which he’ll make like Fireman Ed, a regular at Jets games, by putting on a Bengals firefighter’s helmet and sitting on the goal post or one of his linemen’s shoulders to quiet the crowd.

  194. Schumpeter says:

    skep (197)-

    Yeah…and Trichet thinks his shit don’t stink and it’s only the rest of the world that’s collapsing.

    I bet you can score a nice house in Spain for dirt cheap right now…as long as you only deal with sellers who are banks.

  195. Schumpeter says:

    yikes-

    Jeeps are great, as long as you never actually drive them.

  196. 3b says:

    #191 Continued high unemployment, less demand, high taxes, etc. By the way some of Europe has seen large house price declins, notably Britain and Ireland.

  197. House Whine says:

    172- Warren isn’t a place I would want to move to anymore. The country aspect has been taken over by the wealthy. I often wonder how the old-timers that are left (you know, in those older ranches, split levels, etc) feel about their town now. Believe me, a lot of people there are pretty spoiled. As far as I know there is no direct rail service and I am not sure if they have bus service to NYC. Not thrilled either with their lack of sidewalks in places, lack of things to do, and no real center of town except that large shopping strip. It’s a nice town to eat out in and drive around but for me that’s about it.

  198. Mocha says:

    typically in trading when a stock tanks it usually bounces, when a stock tanks and consolidates near lows its a bad sign for the longs. I wonder if thats whats going on with the R/E market.

    On the contrary, shouldn’t prices be falling this time of year?

  199. 3b says:

    #182 skeptic: If that were the case, than the real estate market should be exploding; and its not.

    By the wta same early ehad fake in the early 90′s prices appeared to have stopped falling, than the next big leg down. Cannot see it any different this time, even after all the govt intervention. And the country, NJ, American worker, is in far more dire straits this time around than back than.

  200. 3b says:

    #183 skeptic: By the way for what it is worth, there is an article in todays Times regarding yesterday’s Case/Shiller housing report. Mr. Case himself is quoted as saying he was too optimistic with the Summer numbers, and he is worried, he belives there we are going into another decline like we did in te early 80′s when it appeared we might be coming out of that houisng downturn. He also belives that if the 2008-09 loans made go bad, than it will be a “nightmare”. And with so many of those loans being 3.5 down FHA, it is likely that many will go bad.

  201. Nurburgringer says:

    yikes – np
    My 5.9 is winter only vehicle; when the 308 goes away the Jeep comes out.
    Like all Jeeps it’s a deathtrap on the road (much more so before I put snow tires on last month), but has the amusing party trick of out-accelerating most cars.
    Keep your eyes open for a good one. I’d be happy to email you info on the few trouble areas and good websites dedicated to 5.9s.
    cheers

  202. Barbara aka B-Cat says:

    skep, property/real estate/land ownership in western europe has always been sky high, comparatively with the US.

  203. Barbara aka B-Cat says:

    but Schumpt is right, in my last outing a few weeks ago, both houses of interest had the defaulted owners in them, but all negotiations would be done with “The Bank.” We have a faceless entity with no emotional baggage to contend with with. How do you think that will play out?

  204. jamil says:

    nice to be back in the parasite area and enjoying the benefits only high taxes can bring you.

    As for terrorism, “system worked”, so you can probably see already what it means when health care system works in ObamaCare.

    Meanwhile, Wash (Com)Post writes that “Authorities are holding out hope that [Abdulmutallab] will change his mind and cooperate with the probe, the officials said.” Unsurprisingly, Was Compost has removed that passage, probably after the Politburo reminded State Media about its priorities.

    Abdulmutallab stopped talking about the plot once he got defense attorney. Isn’t it great that HopeAndChange is working.

    Our great security agencies are holding out hope (!) that Abdulmutallab will reveal important things. Yeah. I feel so safe already. I bet you that the (for example) French would not be waiting and hoping.

  205. Barbara aka B-Cat says:

    forget prediciting new policies based on the fundamentals, there’s a storm coming in the form of 5 out of 7 houses on the market being “banked owned” in certain towns. Thats a game changer, and its not exactly a buyers dream.

  206. Juice Springsteen HEHEHE says:

    Jamil’s Jersey Shore Name is Hard Hat

  207. zieba says:

    What is everybody worrying about? Clearly, these problems are contained to sub-prime, see!

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SzlHENw2q2I/AAAAAAAAHIA/JYD3JhLbgW4/s1600-h/FannieMaeDelinquencyOct.jpg

    I’ll channel Gary here…” Yeah, f*ck em all.” and quote make money “Got real demand?” or was that 3b?

    Look, if you think this is a bottom then you are weak minded and possibly drinking the kool aid. If we were in a zombie flick, we’d have Clot blast you with a shotgun in fear of you turning on us.

    Post 180 is spot on. Post 194 is spot on. 08/09 vintages will start to default. 2010 will be a long slow, painful wait.

  208. Schumpeter says:

    I can predict now with virtual certainty that at some point in 2010, Ginnie Mae/FHA will completely melt down. There will be cascading defaults from the 07-09 vintages.

    I don’t base this on idle speculation.

  209. Schumpeter says:

    Think the bottom is in?

    I’ve got the other side of that trade all day long. And, remember, I’m inside the industry.

  210. chicagofinance says:

    You are such a bean counter….

    Schumpeter says:
    December 30, 2009 at 2:14 pm
    Just roughly calculated that I am worth more dead than alive.

  211. skep-tic says:

    FHA effectively has an unlimited line of credit just like Fannie and Freddie so the chances of it melting down are basically zero right now.

  212. skep-tic says:

    I am in a lease until 2011 so I would love to see prices continue to drop. I am just trying to be objective and I think there are clear differences between the state of the world now vs 6 months ago.

  213. 3b says:

    #219 We may not be where we were 6 months ago, but the economy is still in bad shape. IMO you cannot talk about a bottom until the economy turns around;it ain’t happening yet.

  214. Outofstater says:

    #172 LOL!

  215. Sean says:

    Ski report – We are getting some nice snowfall this afternoon in vail gonna be some freshies in the morning.
    As frank would say what recession this place is packed with Europeans , south americans taking advantage of the weak dollar.

  216. Shore Guy says:

    Stu,

    Get a look at this. I don’t know about East Brunswick but, in the Shore Conference in the 70s this would have constituted coddling (and now it gets a college coach fired):

    http://nytimes.com/article?a=521705&f=27

  217. jamil says:

    222: Snow in NJ in December? I bet the new talking point (after Climate Cooling and Warming) is Climate Stabilization. You know, we must, absolute must, move to national sociali$m to avert Climate Stablization!

  218. Essex says:

    222. Nice!!!!

  219. Shore Guy says:

    “Just roughly calculated that I am worth more dead than alive”

    Chip Bailey?

  220. Shore Guy says:

    “Just roughly calculated that I am worth more dead than alive”

    Chip Bailey?

  221. lisoosh aka Tan-tric says:

    Schumpeter says:
    December 30, 2009 at 2:18 pm

    “Ain’t seen nuthin’ yet. It’s about to get really hairy and really nasty.”

    Clot, I need a timeline Som/Hunt. Dealing with a husband with a very itchy trigger finger. Somethings going to give.

  222. BC Bob says:

    “FHA effectively has an unlimited line of credit just like Fannie and Freddie so the chances of it melting down are basically zero right now.”

    Skep,

    Since the fed has been trying to manipulate long term rates, the 10 year has gone from 2% to almost 4%. 2009 was the worst year for L/T Treas Sec holders since the 70′s. Unlimited line of credit? Tell that to bond holders who have just been pulverized.

    Flight to paper quality? If you think the govt can alter this cycle, sustainable for the long term, you are only kidding yourself? I guarantee they will only make it worse.

    Got real demand?

  223. lisoosh aka Tan-tric says:

    House Whine says:
    December 30, 2009 at 2:38 pm

    “172- Warren isn’t a place I would want to move to anymore. ”

    Ain’t that the truth. It’s been destroyed by effluence. Doubt the big porting of the nouveau are wealthy either. Just pseudo.

  224. zieba says:

    skep,

    Deep down you know that prices can’t stay where they are right now. Not in light of the economy, not in light of decreased government intervention and not in light of that fact that a lot of jobs are not coming back.

    This is not a doomsday prediction but rather a calm, collected and grave assessment of the situation.

    I don’t need world banks teetering on the verge of collapse or a derivative sh*t storm in order to know that prices have not adjusted. In that respect, the exotic stuff is largely behind us. Now it’s just a waiting game of the stupid. I think Clot can attest to the decline in sales volume.

    Oh yeah, Got real demand quote credit goes to BC.

  225. JoeR says:

    230 – “Ain’t that the truth. It’s been destroyed by effluence.”

    Warren did have a moratorium on new sewer hookup for years because the system was at capacity.

    If you still want that country-ish feel like Warren used to be, go West a town to Martinsville…It seems like over the past 25 years, the money/development has been slowly pushing West…Watchung, then Warren….

  226. JoeR says:

    Ugh, terrible grammar in my last post.

  227. skep (217)-

    That’s great…if you believe the world of pretend can last forever. It cannot.

  228. theo says:

    #185 Nicholas

    I have to correct something…

    “THAC0 means “To Hit Armor Class Zero” a measure of how reliably Tosh could strike at someone with natural (no extra) armor. Thus he would have to roll a 10 or above on a 20 sided dice to strike a character with zero AC…a 55% chance to hit.”

    THACO is actually the number need to hit someone using a shield and wearing +4 chain mail armor. Tosh would apparantly be a dead ringer against someone wearing no armor unless playing with some optional critical hit/miss rules, in which case he is in constant danger of missing and chopping his own toe off about 5% of the time.

    *crawls back under rock*

  229. lisoosh (228)-

    Sorry. I don’t do timelines. The gubmint will try to extend & pretend, so I’m sure any bad stuff will be met with max response. However, as I mentioned in #234, it can’t last forever.

    Rent money, mortgage money…either way, it’s money up the chimney.

  230. Barbara aka B-Cat says:

    those 3 bed 2 baths built in 1950 that were selling for 250k in 1999? Well, they are 10 years older, few have been updated and the brick and mortar did not magically turn into gold. Its the same damn house, in a lesser economy, with ten years additional wear and tear. Add it up.

  231. 3b says:

    I think the Spring 2010 market begins Monday January 4th. I would expect to see lots of listings come on right after New Years.

  232. 3b says:

    #237 Come on Barbara!!! They are antiques now.

  233. freedy says:

    spring going to be great. ask any realtor.

    better line up now for the previews.

    lots of inventory,, buyers hurry

  234. Zack says:

    #240

    Buy now or be priced out forever?

  235. Zack says:

    “Buy now or be priced out forever”

    That must be the line of the decade

  236. A.West says:

    Lishoosh -
    We were looking in Warren all summer. Came close to buying 2, first one had artificial stucco and we walked away, second had 100k of repairs discovered in inspection and again we walked. Most of the houses we were looking at were built 87 to 94, old style McMansions. There are some contemporaries out there too, which I like but many hate. The schools in Warren are good, though reportedly not as good as Basking Ridge, where you pay much more for a smaller and more rectangular house with a smaller lot.

    Looks like now we’re going to buy a house in Bridgewater near Martinsville (which uses the Bridgewater Schools anyway). The house itself is much better built than those hundreds of Ks higher in Warren or Basking Ridge. The one who “suffers” from the decision to “settle” for a Bridgewater house is my 8 yo daughter, because she will have to go to a school where some of the kids are average. (In Warren and BR, all of the kids are above average, the parents tell me.) So in Bridgewater my kid will just have to keep on being the smartest in her class, as she’s become accustomed to in Scotch Plains.

  237. "the impact" safeashouses says:

    #202 House Whine,

    I lived in Warren for a year and you pretty much nailed it. You forgot to add try finding a house below 500k that isn’t on septic, oil, propane and/or have an electric hot water heater or heat.

    Don’t get me started on what food the schools serve. OK. They order take out from fast food places. The mom who gave me a tour during orientation told me the kids just love it. Great, spend 8k a year in taxes for a 60 year old house that should be bulldozed so my kid can eat HFCS. After that orientation I told my wife we have to move to another town.

  238. 3b says:

    #236 it’s money up the chimney.

    This charmer has a nice chimney.
    http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=2947281

  239. ruggles says:

    Martinsville (which uses the Bridgewater Schools anyway) – Martinsville IS Bridgewater. same town.

  240. A.West says:

    Ruggles,
    I think you get to write Martinsville on your Christmas cards though.

  241. "the impact" safeashouses says:

    #246 Ruggles,

    Just like the people in Elberon claim they are from Elberon and not Long Branch. ha, you vote for the mayor of Long Branch and you go to Long Branch schools you are in Long Branch.

  242. skep-tic says:

    “That’s great…if you believe the world of pretend can last forever. It cannot.”

    Not saying it will last forever, but who knows how long it might last. 5 yrs? 10? 20? Given where we were this time last year did any of us believe things would be the way they are today? I know there is a lot of crap below the surface, but things are remarkably stable nonetheless. I am clearly a bit awed by our gov’t's ability to kick the can down the road

  243. ruggles says:

    AWest – In-the-know Somerset County posers sign up for Far Hills po boxes to impress their friends. when I lived in gladstone about 8 years ago, there was a several years long waiting list for them. who knows, maybe you can snip one easily these days.

  244. skep (249)-

    Sorry. I’m not awed by lying, cheating, stealing and the perpetration of all kinds of massive frauds.

    We are witnessing a how-to on ending an empire.

    “I am clearly a bit awed by our gov’t’s ability to kick the can down the road”

  245. skep (249)-

    Sorry. I’m not awed by lying, cheating, stealing and the perpetration of all kinds of massive frauds.

    We are witnessing a how-to on ending an empire.

    “I am clearly a bit awed by our gov’t’s ability to kick the can down the road”

  246. Ladies and gentlemen, your shining beacon of freedom to the world has come to this:

    “Prepare for “no cash until 2099″ offers at a GM dealer near you. Free rear spoiler stickers of Marx, Engels and Lenin included with every purchase of a CTS-V.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/last-bailout-2009-us-takes-majority-ownership-gmac

    At this point, I’d live in Mexico. It’s a more honest place than here.

  247. ruggles says:

    248 – Safe – Elberon sounds like Sleepy Hollow. Is Long Branch as wretched as Plainfield? or not quite so bad cuz of the ocean. I’m unfamiliar with the area.

  248. Nomad says:

    Schump #213,

    So what kind of hit to prices will happen when this comes to pass and are you talking about a national beating on home prices again.

    Whats your guess on price drops in % and how long do you think it will take? By end of 2010?

    Any housing indexes to short?

  249. meter says:

    While I have a feeling that the current unemployment landscape won’t improve overall in the NE, my (Wall Street) company is embarking on hiring 1,000 IT heads in the next year.

    Not all hiring will be US-based but a pretty good chunk will be, I would imagine. I have no idea what front office business these new hires will be supporting or at what levels. Can’t say much more than that.

  250. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Crossroads 143 Thanks for the info, Maybe an early Sat night thing say 5 ish would be best. Should be before the rush maybe hang at bar eat a few apps shoot the breeze for an hour or 2 then get home before the police start looking to DWI
    people. Looking at the 9th?

  251. Shore Guy says:

    “. Is Long Branch as wretched as Plainfield? ”

    Some would say worse. It not only is a dreck-filled town but it also attracts bennies. Yippee!

  252. Barbara aka B-Cat says:

    Just got my Horizon yearly contract, 150 a month more. Burn it all down.

  253. Shore Guy says:

    BC,

    You are at a boardwalk?

  254. cobbler says:

    bystander [186]
    If we had point-based immigration system like Australia and Canada it’d have been much better for the country and the economy. In fact, essentially everyone coming to Canada as a “landed immigrant” earns income higher than the average for the country – that means, he/she makes the land richer. If someone gets displaced, this is a result of fair competition; one could argue the job would have gone to the same person but overseas, otherwise. H1b, OTOH, is a form of indentured servitude which depresses pay and expressly serves to destroy U.S. jobs.

  255. Barbara aka B-Cat says:

    I’m probably going to do this HSA plan, which is nothing more than 500 a month out the window so I can sleep at night. Is Ambien cheaper? Probably not…

  256. cobbler says:

    Case and Shiller on Case-Shiller (the first piece is longer and gloomier, the 2nd is somewhat more optimistic though with caveat “if the economy doesn’t collapse” which many will laugh at):

    Case Sees `Plenty’ of Headwinds to U.S. Housing Recovery: Video
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aTKu36JIpAag

    Case, Shiller’s Own Words on U.S. Housing Market, Prices: Video
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ah3WuIFNyfkI

  257. BC Bob says:

    “I am clearly a bit awed by our gov’t’s ability to kick the can down the road”

    We tried the same in the early 70′s. How did that work out? There has never been a govt that has printed their way to prosperity. This will not be the first. How does one bury debt by printing more debt? That said, they will destroy your purchasing power in their futile attempt. Where are they kicking that can?

  258. BC Bob says:

    Shore [261],

    Yesterday, Lake Mohawk.

  259. cobbler says:

    Please unmod 263 (links to Case and Shiller videos on Bloomberg).

  260. BC Bob says:

    I am clearly awed by our govt’s ability to engineer the worst return for LT treas sec holders, since the 70′s. LT treas sec holders got that can kicked right up their ass.

  261. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    B-Cat….

    Ambien has better side effects (or so I’m told).

  262. jamil says:

    263 bob:
    “There has never been a govt that has printed their way to prosperity.”

    You just don’t have Hopeandchange.
    Sociali$m has not worked in the last 6,000 years either but it was only because Obambi did not try it.

  263. crossroads says:

    257 miw

    looks good for me.

  264. SG says:

    Deutsche Bank Projects Real Estate Values Will Fall Another 10-12 Percent

    When the credit crisis began, credit rating agencies created models predicting how bad things may actually get, in terms of how far down home prices would fall in America. At that time, mortgage finance players assumed this was a worst-case scenario, with an outside chance of coming true.

    Today, Deutsche Bank researchers say these predictions will likely become a reality, with the total peak-to-trough decline of US home prices hitting nearly 40%. In the current outlook, they say home prices will drop a further 10 to 12% from current levels.

    The researchers note that recent home price gains, and the attention it garners, has likely run its course, with no seeable future home prices rises across the board. Government bailouts lack the potency to counter larger issue of unemployment, tight credit and the rising negative equity this report represents. In the worst of it, with another 29% decline in home prices projected, the NY/NJ MSA has Deutsche Bank’s holds the direst outlook of the 100 MSAs.

  265. SG says:

    From above article,

    NY, where homes still cost 7x the median income … these are not markets where “preventing preventable foreclosures” and $8,000 checks can solve the housing crisis. Ironically, however, we can envision some markets, where foreclosure inventory is light, unemployment is below average, and homes are affordable, where the homebuyer credit could lead to a little market froth, especially at entry level price points, such as in Austin, TX and Fort Collins, CO.

  266. cobbler says:

    SG [272]

    As opposed to DB view, Case (as in Case-Shiller) thinks that the Northeast will see less of a further price drop than FL, AZ, etc.:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ah3WuIFNyfkI

  267. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    Russia may send spacecraft to knock away asteroid. AP

    MOSCOW – Russia’s space agency chief said Wednesday a spacecraft may be dispatched to knock a large asteroid off course and reduce the chances of earth impact, even though U.S. scientists say such a scenario is unlikely.

    Anatoly Perminov told Golos Rossii radio the space agency would hold a meeting soon to assess a mission to Apophis. He said his agency might eventually invite NASA, the European Space Agency, the Chinese space agency and others to join the project.
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/eu_russia_asteroid_encounter

    I told you to be aware of strange stories about space. Global problems require global solutions from global governments.

    Now get back to work slaves.

    PS. Bob, got my shiny delivered today. Why are the Goldman and JP Morgan crime syndicates shorting gold stocks?

  268. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Crossroads 269 good I’ll let kettle know.
    Now we need wag to drop in & read.
    Any one else who can get there so far it’s Krogh’s in Sparta NJ Jan 9th at 5 or so. It is about 15 20 min off of route 80 to
    15 north, nice highway as long as it is not snowing. Grim you free about an hour from you, welcome to crash by me. Lost same goes for you.

  269. still_looking says:

    lost, 152

    My mouth says those exact words, verbatim, entirely too often! :)

    How’s the ankle?

    Morning call? or now even… I’m up.

    sl

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