New Jersey Home Price Tracker – December

The New Jersey Home Price Index Tracker has been updated to include:
* October S&P Case Shiller (Aggregate, Tiered, Condo)
* Q3 FHFA Home Price Index (HPI, Purchase Only)
* Q3 NJAR Home Price Index (Statewide Median)


(click to enlarge)


(click to enlarge)


(click to enlarge)

FHFA (Formerly known as the OFHEO) Home Price Index

HPI (Includes Refis) – Peaked in Q1 2007 and is down 12.42% from peak

Purchase Only – Peaked in Q2 2006 and is down 11.88% from peak

S&P Case Shiller NY Metro Commutable Area Home Price Index

Low Tier (Under $284606) – Peaked in October 2006 and is down 22.73% from peak

Mid Tier ($284606 – $417722) – Peaked in September 2006 and is down 19.65% from peak

High Tier (Over $417722) – Peaked in June 2006 and is down 15.09% from peak

Aggregate (Overall Market) – Peaked in June 2006 and is down 18.91% from peak

Condo-Only Index – Peaked in February 2006 and is down 15.63% from peak

NY Metro Area Aggregate Year over Year Changes

Oct 08 -7.72%
Nov 08 -8.74%
Dec 08 -9.22%
Jan 09 -9.73%
Feb 09 -10.32%
Mar 09 -11.66%
Apr 09 -12.36%
May 09 -11.87%
Jun 09 -11.49%
Jul 09 -10.24%
Aug 09 -9.42%
Sep 09 -8.66%
Oct 09 -7.73%

This entry was posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

275 Responses to New Jersey Home Price Tracker – December

  1. A.West says:

    First, and apparently under contract to buy a bigger piece of the NJ RE ball n chain

  2. grim says:

    Congrats! Gory details?

  3. There’s a special place in hell for Barney Frank. I hope.

    “Here are some of the nuggets I gleaned from days spent reading Frank’s handiwork:

    For all its heft, the bill doesn’t once mention the words “too-big-to-fail,” the main issue confronting the financial system.

    Instead, it supports the biggest banks. It authorizes Federal Reserve banks to provide as much as $4 trillion in emergency funding the next time Wall Street crashes. So much for “no-more-bailouts” talk. That is more than twice what the Fed pumped into markets this time around. The size of the fund makes the bribes in the Senate’s health-care bill look minuscule.

    Oh, hold on, the Federal Reserve and Treasury Secretary can’t authorize these funds unless “there is at least a 99 percent likelihood that all funds and interest will be paid back.” Too bad the same models used to foresee the housing meltdown probably will be used to predict this likelihood as well.”

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/12/congressional-legislation-introduced-by.html

  4. I’m coming to the conclusion that I can no longer afford to live in the US. Nor will my children be able to.

  5. chicagofinance says:

    What happened to this blog. It used to have big arguments between people who were horribly depressed and in need of medication versus a whole host of quirky trolls. Now all we get are these irrelevant real estate graphs. What happened?

  6. chi (5)-

    What happened to our country?

  7. Stu says:

    Or better yet…What happened to our FREE market economy?

  8. chicagofinance says:

    6.The Condition-Code Red says:
    December 30, 2009 at 10:00 pm
    chi (5)- What happened to our country?

    I believe the following is a sonic representation…..
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_uuYtEZvy_I

  9. lisoosh aka Tan-tric says:

    Freeby local rag had an advertising section in it – Jeffrey Otteau stating that banks were really forced to give out ninja loans even though they really didn’t want to. And of course it is all better now and everything is coming up roses.

    RE ad section has dwindled considerably over the years and now is down to Bob Beatty.

  10. Shore Guy says:

    Eight CIA employees blown up today. It is a sad thing, and heads need to roll.

  11. Shore Guy says:

    If one has a $4 trillionlegislative backstop, why would one exercise even a modicum of caution when seeking profits?

  12. Shore Guy says:

    “BC Bob says:
    December 30, 2009 at 7:36 pm
    Shore [261],
    Yesterday, Lake Mohawk”

    I don’t know the place? Is it built up ?

  13. A.West says:

    Grim,
    The deal hasn’t closed yet, so too early for congrats or condolences. Bridgewater, a large house and lot, appears very well built, but not inspected yet. Down more than 300k from olp, but not necessarily below fair value in my opinion. Should hold my 3- generation family plus guests. Hope to challenge tax assessment afterwards to cut excessive taxes.

  14. Shore Guy says:

    Lake Mohawk:

    Get a look at the change in income from 2000-2008 and then look at the change in home prices over that period:

    http://www.city-data.com/city/Lake-Mohawk-New-Jersey.

  15. Shore Guy says:

    In mod?

  16. Shore Guy says:

    Yep, in mod. Posted data on incomes changes vs home price changes in Lake Mohawk.

  17. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    lost, 152 (last thread)

    My mouth says those exact words, verbatim, entirely too often! :)

    How’s the ankle?

    Morning call? or now even… I’m up.

    sl

  18. sas says:

    “What happened to our FREE market economy”

    better dig up & dust off Reagan and ask him.

    SAS

  19. sas says:

    “Eight CIA employees blown up today. It is a sad thing, and heads need to roll”

    back in my day, we would say they there is a ghost among us.
    meaning, potential set up or infiltration.

    SAS

  20. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    18 SAS

    egads…. that’s bad. it does sound like an inside job, though.

    sl

  21. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    http://kids.woot.com/

    Yo Gabba Gabba! Dance Time Brobee toy.

    For those who follow Yo Gabba Gabba :)

    sl

    (not that I’m trying to stimulate the economy in any way…purely informational)

  22. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    Hey, BC Bob!

    I keep hoping for sub 1K/oz to buy but this may explain price ceiling:

    http://www.gata.org/files/GATAFedResponse-09-17-2009.pdf

    more at zerohedge

    sl

  23. sastry says:

    A.West, best of luck (and may be advanced congrats). Our tax assessor may decide on the assessment in a few weeks (saw our house in October), and we hope he will cut a few bucks (150% of purchase price, we are hoping it to go to 125% or lower — similar houses sold for 125% price recently on regular sales).

    I recall you looking at Warren, right?

    BTW, did anyone see multiple new mansions on Washington Rock Rd in Watchung? They look like real mansions, (not McMansions), and seem to be still under construction.

    S

  24. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    Sastry,

    Are they off of Rte 22?

    sl

  25. D says:

    Shore, since I live in LM, I’m interested to see what you posted about income changes/home prices. I do know there’s a number of empty houses just on my way in & out of the lake every day.

    BC Bob, Lake Mohawk is in Sparta.

  26. Howard Davidowitz has spoken. No better source than this for the real story on retail:

    http://www.clipsyndicate.com/video/play/1232957

    Butt ugly.

  27. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Good morning clot. I am still trying to put some spin on it to make it good better put on the talking heads.

  28. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    sigh… still awake…0545

    good god.

    sl

  29. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Mortgage Bond Rally May End, Rates Rise as Fed Stops Purchases

    Mortgage bonds are poised to slump after a record rally as the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented buying of $1.25 trillion of the securities ends as soon as March, driving up interest rates on new home loans.

    Analysts at BNP Paribas SA, Credit Suisse Group AG and JPMorgan Chase & Co. say the extra yield over benchmark rates that investors demand to hold the securities will widen as much as half a percentage point as the Fed stops purchasing. The 11- month-old program has reduced yields, which guide lending rates, by about 1 percentage point, BNP estimates.

    The Fed has been buying at “way” narrower spreads than “where the private sector would be willing to” invest, said Doug Dachille, chief executive officer of New York-based First Principles Capital Management LLC, which oversees about $8 billion of fixed-income investments.

    Rising yields mean loan rates are likely to end 2010 almost 0.75 percentage point higher than they are currently, based on forecasts for government bonds and spreads, adding to challenges for a housing market struggling to recover from its worst slump since the 1930s. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s goal this year has been to lower the costs for consumers to borrow and help bolster the economy as banks curbed lending.

  30. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Rules to Clarify Cost of Mortgages

    Americans have long struggled with the complexities of shopping for home mortgages. Now Uncle Sam is trying to help.

    Federal rules that take effect Friday require mortgage lenders and brokers to give consumers better estimates of the barrage of costs they incur when taking out home loans. The new rules mandate a standard three-page Good Faith Estimate that urges consumers to shop around for the best loan and helps them compare lenders’ offerings.

    The rules, announced by the Department of Housing and Urban Development in November 2008, are an update of the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act, a 1974 law known as Respa. Though the changes come too late to help the millions of Americans who made poor loan choices during the housing boom, “it’s going to be a help,” said Jack Guttentag, a retired Wharton School finance professor who operates a mortgage advice Web site, http://www.mtgprofessor.com.

  31. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Jesse Jackson calls on banks to help struggling churches, homeowners

    The Rev. Jesse Jackson met with black pastors from around the state Wednesday to launch a campaign to urge the nation’s largest banks to help churches, homeowners and students refinance their debts.

    Jackson, during a luncheon meeting at the Metropolitan Baptist Church in Newark, spoke specifically to the issue of churches in foreclosure, acknowledging the plight of Pastor Rev. Albert Rowe, whose Calvary Baptist Church of Paterson is now in foreclosure proceedings, in debt to a lender for $3.3 million. Jackson said there were thousands of churches in foreclosure, like Calvary, across the country – 200 in the Atlanta metro area alone, he said.

    “The church is the largest holder of land and the biggest builder of affordable housing, day-care centers and childcare providers,” Jackson said. “When this institution is under crisis, the whole community is in trouble.”

  32. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    N.J. set to end year with first drop in tax collections in seven years

    New Jersey is on track to end the year with the first drop in state tax collections since 2002.

    The ongoing recession has cost state government 14 percent of its tax revenue so far this year, with business, personal income and sales taxes all taking significant hits, according to a Statehouse Bureau analysis of new data released this week by the U.S. Census Bureau.

    From January through September, New Jersey collected $20.34 billion in taxes — a loss of one of every seven dollars collected in the same period in 2008.

    The decline in New Jersey mirrored the experience of state governments nationwide in 2009, according to the census bureau’s report. Collectively, the states absorbed a 13 percent drop in tax collections.

    In New Jersey, revenues dropped in virtually every major category, including an 18 percent loss in corporate taxes, a 19 percent dip in individual income taxes and a 9 percent decline in sales taxes.

    So-called sin taxes, on alcohol and tobacco, showed modest decreases of 5 percent and 3 percent, respectively. The only areas showing increases were motor vehicles fees and taxes, which shot up 11 percent, and taxes on public utilities, which rose 6 percent.

  33. SL

    You still up? Go to sleep!

  34. 31 Grim

    Just heard that very same thing on fox news. When did anchors, and I use that term loosely, become so plastic? It’s like watching Barbie and Ken every friggin day!

  35. Cindy says:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601079&sid=aE64ukcPv8J8

    As Chicago would say: The end is nigh…

    “Jets Ban Alcohol at Giants Stadium for Regular Season Finale”

    “The New York Jets banned alcohol sales at Giants Stadium for the National Football League regular season Finale against the Cincinnati Bengals on Jan. 3.”

  36. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    From last thread.
    Crossroads 269 good I’ll let kettle know.
    Now we need wag to drop in & read.
    Any one else who can get there so far it’s Krogh’s in Sparta NJ Jan 9th at 5 or so. It is about 15 20 min off of route 80 to
    15 north, nice highway as long as it is not snowing. Grim you free about an hour from you, welcome to crash by me. Lost same goes for you.

  37. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Snow storm all ready in progress in Sussex. Started about an hour ago falling at a pretty good rate.The hinterland weather
    report.

  38. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Chicago Finance is now known as The Tan-talizer.

  39. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Stealth layoffs at law firm at which I work. 15 senior associates getting the axe.

  40. 37 Mike
    Snow started here about half an hour ago. Its sticking. I’m freezing with every window open because the morons that did the floors in the apartment downstairs (did I mention I got that dirtbag thrown out?) left all the windows closed down there. The fumes are so bad in here its awful.
    I guess I’m not picking up my car with my brand new tires on it today.

  41. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Lost they resurfaced wood hence fumes?

  42. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    If so very bad for you get them to crack top of windows to vent ASAP.

  43. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Just looked out window turning into blizzard. Oh bother.

  44. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    HEHEHE you safe?

  45. House Whine says:

    39- Just when I was ready to dip my toes back in the water and go back to the legal field- there are still layoffs? Never would I have foreseen such instability and job losses in this field.

  46. 41 42 Mike

    I have a better chance of Santa coming back here tonight.

  47. grim says:

    Snowing pretty hard here in Wayne. Ground starting to cover at a good clip.

  48. scribe, The Princess of Paramus says:

    Mike,

    It’s coming down like mad in Queens.

  49. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Scribe same here , off to work braving the snow
    catch you later folks.

  50. NJCoast says:

    Snow on the beach.

  51. skep-tic says:

    #3

    “Instead, it supports the biggest banks. It authorizes Federal Reserve banks to provide as much as $4 trillion in emergency funding the next time Wall Street crashes. So much for “no-more-bailouts” talk.”

    governments and oligopolies go hand in hand. government does not prefer independent, decentralized power

  52. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Mike,

    I’m safe as far as I know; I manage part of the support staff, there’s plenty of people higher in my department making more $ than me that do a lot less but who knows what will happen. Rumor is that partners did not like their take home this year and are doing a full cost benefit analysis of the employees starting with the associates and working their way down. Going on everywhere.

  53. Pat says:

    How bad does the snow look..icy under? We’re supposed to be in Orange County this afternoon. We got some ice down here in MD with a couple of inches of snow, but it looks done now.

  54. NJGator says:

    Snow sticking in The People’s Republic of Montclair. It’s not nearly as nice when you have to walk through it to go to work.

    Fingers crossed that we our flight to Cincy this afternoon is not too delayed.

  55. frank says:

    “I’m coming to the conclusion that I can no longer afford to live in the US. Nor will my children be able to.”

    Please move out ASAP, I hear Iran is a place that would fit your personality, they don’t like appositive views just like you.

  56. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Fyi,

    I reduced my cable bill $80 at the local cable co by downgrading to family package from Silver and threatening to ditch my phone package. They came back with some one year deal. They asked me why I was making these changes, I told them we had big layoffs where I work, they put me on hold and came back with the offer. I meant to do it months ago but never got around to making the call.

  57. crossroads says:

    I thought accumulations were less then an inch up here in the Hinterland region what happened?

  58. skep-tic says:

    #45

    “Just when I was ready to dip my toes back in the water and go back to the legal field- there are still layoffs? Never would I have foreseen such instability and job losses in this field.”

    there is a fundamental reevaluation of the big firm model underway. all pretense that this is a stable profession has been tossed.

  59. grim says:

    Jobless claims posting a very strong drop this week, down 22k to 432k.

  60. Shore Guy says:

    Hehe,

    Has the news made it to ATL yet?

  61. Shore Guy says:

    NJC,

    There is nothing quite like snow on the beach. The other thing I quite like is when it gets really cold and there has been enough moisture in the air that the sand crusts over.

  62. Shore Guy says:

    It was not that long ago that 400m+ job losses would have seemed a disaster.

  63. Shore Guy says:

    Prediction:

    The head of the NCTC is fired soon, and Napolitano could leave as well.

  64. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    No not on ATL as far as I know. It’s going on in a a lot the major firms though so I doubt it’s even noteworthy on there anymore.

  65. House Whine says:

    52- I kind of enjoyed working in the legal profession but I did see a lot of unnecessary work being done. Towards the end, it got ugly.. attorneys battling their fellow attorneys for billables and battling w/paralegals for the same billables. Clients unable to pay the fees became more and more common.

  66. gary says:

    Shore [63],

    It’s Bush’s fault.

  67. 3b says:

    #62 shore 400?? 150k-200k losses cost old Bush re-election back in 1992. Now 400k is cause for happiness???

  68. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Yeah, I’m an attorney myself, fell @ss backwards into an alternative career path. Can’t complain in the least.

  69. "the impact" safeashouses says:

    With all these gov programs like loan modifications, fha replacing subprime, and first time buyer tax credits, NY metro area went down 7.73% from Oct 08 to 09, while it dropped 7.72% from 0ct 07 to Oct 08. At that rate another 4 to 6 years a family earning median income for their town can afford a pos ranch/cape/split in (insert hoigtyville town of choice).

  70. crossroads says:

    61 shore

    I lived in Sea Bright for 3 years and spent more time on the beach in the winter months there is something to an empty beach.

  71. frank says:

    #4,
    I hear Cuba has no property taxes, not RE agents and a lovely place this time of the year.

  72. grim says:

    Winter on LBI is a favorite of mine. But I would trade that for a good over-ocean summer thunderstorm any time.

  73. frank says:

    “U.S. Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Decline to Lowest Level Since July 2008″
    Where’s the recession? Buy a home now, before prices skyrocket up.

  74. 3b says:

    #65 gary: Perhaps you missed this delightful listing. Taxes are only $9,500 per year. Blue ribbony train town of course!!!

    http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=2951880

  75. grim says:

    Hemmingway liked it, and they’ve got cool cars and good cigars. Besides Raul and Fidel will be dead soon, and the O man will drop the embargoes.

  76. House Whine says:

    69- Ha! Good for you! I have a few alternative career paths as well. Just have to figure out how to channel them given this economy. I am trying to see it as the glass being half full and all that good stuff.

  77. crossroads says:

    shore

    “Yep, in mod. Posted data on incomes changes vs home price changes in Lake Mohawk.”

    can you post this info again? I’m up here in LM as well. D is right about some empty houses but I would argue that house prices have held up in most of the lake community.

  78. D says:

    Grim, I’m with you, I like summer thunderstorms better than snow.

    and what is with the snow? DD has a (much needed) playdate!

  79. A.West says:

    Sastry,
    I almost bought in Warren, but an inspection brought up potentially $100,000 of repairs/replacements within the first couple of years, the offer of $10,000 credit didn’t do it for us. Bridgewater is closer to my work in Somerville, so ultimately we picked the house over the town.
    I haven’t seen those mansions in Watchung, the ones I wonder about are the ones on the lake near the Watchung circle. So huge they look like they need a staff of servants and a very large family. I wonder who lives there.

  80. chicago tan-talizer says:

    done!

    38.Dissident HEHEHE says:
    December 31, 2009 at 7:57 am
    Chicago Finance is now known as The Tan-talizer.

  81. D says:

    Crossroads, I didn’t know you were here, too! I’m curious about the info posted. I still see some unrealistic prices, but houses are moving when priced correctly, imo.

  82. chicago tan-talizer says:

    HEHEHE – did you see 411 and Scammarano’s American Flag?

  83. Alap says:

    Damn its snowing hard!! It’s all Bush’s fault.

  84. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    lost,

    Yup. Up.

    sl

  85. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    frank (oh hey, F*uck You.)

    Your rock misses you… go crawl back under it.

    sl

  86. chicago tan-talizer says:

    clot: I give you Necrocannibalistic Vomitorium and you can’t even be bothered to respond?

  87. D says:

    sl, I was up nearly 4 hours in the middle of the night, but did get back to sleep around 5:15. Have you TRIED to go to bed? Good God is right.

  88. gary says:

    safehouses [72],

    Bleeding the sellers and the industry drop by drop until all that’s left is a lifeless corpse. It’s the difference between the pros and the amatuers. The wannabes look for instant results and the pros wait patiently, methodically, like heynas wearing down the wounded wildebeest. There’s a sadisitic beautality (new word invented? lol) to the process.

  89. NJCoast says:

    #61- Shore

    Even cooler is when on a frigid day at sunrise the whole ocean “steams” like a giant witches caldron. Its very fleeting- only lasts a few minutes.

  90. grim (30)-

    The Fed keeps dancing (like Prince), while Bill Gross sneaks out the back door. After Gross leaves, all the exits will be shut.

    “The Fed has been buying at “way” narrower spreads than “where the private sector would be willing to” invest, said Doug Dachille, chief executive officer of New York-based First Principles Capital Management LLC, which oversees about $8 billion of fixed-income investments.”

  91. crossroads says:

    D

    “I still see some unrealistic prices”??

    unless people are making a lot more then I think they’re all unrealistic but thats everywhere.

    “but houses are moving when priced correctly”

    I agree there are a few priced correctly. I also think people come from out of town and have no idea about the market here and pay more then they should

  92. grim (31)-

    Bullshit. The only people helped by the new RESPA regs are, natch, the banks.

    They are an absolute screw job for borrowers and- along with the new appraisal guidelines- effectively bind the borrower to one lender. They also will end up forcing buyers to shell out prepaids much earlier in the process.

  93. Cindy (36)-

    Don’t worry. Jets’ fans will “compensate” for that. Easily.

    “Jets Ban Alcohol at Giants Stadium for Regular Season Finale”

  94. crossroads says:

    grim

    does the new year start training for the cycling season?

  95. D says:

    crossroads, true. the ones not priced right aren’t selling anyway, but still I am surprised sometimes.

  96. Juice Springsteen HEHEHE says:

    Yeah the Jets game doesn’t start until 8pm. They’ll be tailgating from at least noon.

  97. 3b (70)-

    We’ll be wrestling with double-digit unemployment for the next 20 years. Little victories just seem bigger now.

    The fundamental problem is, the United States and its economy are dead. Our baseline of employment is the minimum amount of people needed to carry on the charade that it’s still alive.

  98. Juice Springsteen HEHEHE says:

    Tan-talizer:

    Perhaps the flag is an indicator that he has flipped?;)

  99. 3b says:

    #10 The condition: Maybe you can explain that to frank.

  100. chi (89)-

    Huh? I fell back to sleep.

    I give to you necrotic love-ick. Do with it what you will. :)

  101. NJCoast says:

    In other shore news, Live Nation’s vice-grip on the Asbury Park music scene has been loosened. Live Nation had a multi-year exclusive contract on the Stone Pony, Convention Hall, the Paramount Theatre, and the Wonder Bar. Other promoters are already booking shows for this sumeer.

  102. 3b (103)-

    The only thing that can be explained to Frank is that the door with the narrow silhouette is the mens’ room and the door with the silhouette that looks like it’s wearing a skirt is for the little girlies.

  103. coast (105)-

    Will any of these promoters guard my car while I watch the show?

  104. BTW, I predict Frank will die in 2010.

  105. crossroads says:

    D

    I’m shocked when something sits for 8-10 months and then someone pays 10k less then asking. I mean wtf? it still seems there are people desperate to own at any cost

  106. D says:

    & like you said, crossroads, people who don’t realize the market here combined with people who think since it’s less than it was it’s a good buy! crazy!

  107. Oh yeah, here’s the foundation for a solid recovery in 2010:

    “The fabulous news of the day undoubtedly will be the latest release from the Dept of Labor: Initial Claims for the week ended December 26 came in at 432,000, a 22,000 decline from the prior week, and below consensus. The number was sufficient to prompt Bloomberg’s Courtney Schlisserman to come up with the following observation, “Fewer Americans than anticipated filed claims for unemployment benefits last week, pointing to an improvement in the labor market that will help sustain economic growth next year.” Perhaps Courtney and Steve Liesman should sit down in a corner and finally figure out what this whole EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) business is – trust us, it is not that difficult. And for the week ended Dec. 12 it surged by 191,669 to almost 4.5 million, another all time record. Three weeks ago we were shocked when this number hit the all time high of 4.2 million: in a mere 21 days it has added a whopping 8% to the total. Unfortunately, at this point we have gotten a little desensitized to new EUC records. We ask Ms. Schlisserman what happens to the “sustainable economic growth” when there are 0 Initial Claims (hurray!!) and a million EUC claims weekly (uhh)? Again, a simple question. Luckily for Bloomberg, the DOL and the BLS there is no consensus number for EUC, as the downside surprises there would have been staggering, if anyone actually cared to report those on the front pages of the even impartial mainstream media.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/same-unemployment-insurance-misreporting-different-day-initial-claims-down-22000-eucs-surge-

  108. Sastry says:

    Sl, the places are near Rt 22 (keep going up Washington Rd, cross the Washington Rock monument, and the new mansions start appearing — one next to another).

    A.West, all the best…

    S

  109. crossroads says:

    D

    do you rent? I do and have been warned by several people to hurry and buy this year because prices are only going to go up!
    there are quite a few houses going into all phases of foreclosure for a town that considers itself affluent. I don’t know if people were hit hard by layoffs here

  110. jamil says:

    10 shore: “Eight CIA employees blown up today. It is a sad thing, and heads need to roll.”

    I agree that Dick Cheney is responsible. Probably assisted by Palin and Haliburton. Just like they invented terrorism in 2001 (e.g. first WTC attack, Cole attack, etc).

  111. Fiddy aka Bubba says:

    C’mon Guys & Gals, do yourselves a favor this morning…..feel good about living in Jersey.

    Give a listen to Jon Stewart’s Introduction of Bruce Springsteen at the Kennedy Center the other night. Really Funny.

    And stay with it to hear The Rising with the full house choir behind it……

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QpTSztA1cM

  112. NJCoast says:

    #107- The Condition Code- Red

    Much to my surprise Asbury attracted lots of people from the surrounding wealthy communities last summer. Many people from those towns are summering from NYC, they’re used to ignoring the seedy folk.

    Big mistake was Madison Marquette insisting on yearly leases for the boarwalk businesses and making them stay open all year. Its a long winter down here and they can’t hold on.

  113. fiddy (115)-

    I’ll feel better if I can manage to pay next quarter’s tax bills.

  114. fiddy (115)-

    Springsteen, but more apropos for today:

    And we headed down south with just spit and a song
    But they said “Sorry son it’s gone gone gone”

  115. Well big limousine long shiny and black
    You don’t look ahead you don’t look back
    How many times can you get up after you’ve been hit?
    Well I swear if I could spare the spit
    I’d lay one on your shiny chrome
    And send you on your way back home
    So if you’re gonna leave your town where the north wind blow
    To go on down where that sweet soda river flow
    Well you better think twice on it Jack
    You’re better off buyin’ a shotgun dead off the rack
    You ain’t gonna find nothin’ down here friend
    Except seeds blowin’ up the highway in the south wind
    Movin’ on movin’ on it’s gone gone it’s all gone

  116. BC Bob says:

    The head of the NCTC is fired soon, and Napolitano could leave as well.

    Shore,

    JN should have been gone already. O, time to act, show her the door.

  117. BC Bob says:

    Fireworks going off in Hong Kong, Happy New Year.

  118. Fiddy aka Bubba says:

    I’d prefer something a little more uplifting today. Life is Good. I was just getting some stuff ready for my tax guy, and I found my initial shiny purchase statement — 12/11/02. Every once in a while you wake up standing on Third Base. The Triple you hit in your dreams turns out to be a reality.

    If you haven’t heard that Jon Stewart bit….it’s really funny.

  119. BC Bob says:

    Gator/Stu,

    What’s Just Jakes like?

    Shore,

    The B-Street Band there[Montclair] on Feb 6.

  120. BC Bob says:

    Fiddy[122],

    12/02 is not a triple. It’s a grand slam. Kudo’s to you.

  121. 3b says:

    #120 BC Bob When is Timmy going?

  122. D says:

    Crossroads, nope, not a renter. We’ve owned in Sparta since 1994 & LM since 2002. We like it here, but I’m not as impressed with the schools as I once was. Sparta’s a nice town, but not BC affluent. lol!

  123. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    D how about meeting Crossroads , kettle 1 , wag, & yours truly Sat the 9th at 515 at Krogh’s?

  124. Wag says:

    M (127) – I am there, as long as work does not get in the way.

  125. chicagofinance says:

    Finally a public transportation option for a place that so many need to go…..

    http://synccontent.wsj.com/Imagestore/name/6b/92/6b92ce20-3c78-42e0-9807-6517bacc5c3f.80×80.png

  126. freedy says:

    all you real estate folks. Just remember
    “the titantic was unsinkable “

  127. chicagofinance says:

    Have you ever been hit by lightning? Does your chest hair become crispy?

    grim says:
    December 31, 2009 at 9:02 am
    Winter on LBI is a favorite of mine. But I would trade that for a good over-ocean summer thunderstorm any time.

  128. D says:

    M in W aka “bicep,” I’ll see what I can do! Can’t get more local than that for a gtg.

  129. Fiddy aka Bubba says:

    I was just looking at the on-line menu for Krogh’s…..damn, you guys are gonna have fun. And the Brew List !!

    I don’t get up into that area often, but next time I do, I will surely stop in for a Beer & a Bump.

  130. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Wag 128 good see you then.

  131. skep-tic says:

    2010 RE predictions? this is tough because so much is being held up by a string. here are a couple of WAGs:

    NYC metro house prices down 0-5%

    30 yr conforming mortgage up to 6.25%

    Unemployment stable at 10%

    GOP has gains in congress but Dems remain in majority

  132. 3b says:

    #135 skeptic: Don’t see how NYC metro prices would only fall 0-5%, in light of your other predictions. Where are the new buyers coming from??

  133. Shore Guy says:

    NJC,

    Great news about Live Nation. They suc-k only slightly less than TicketMonster.

  134. 3b says:

    Assuming no pints, how much are trypivcal closing costs for a SF hosue today. I have forgotten since I last owned.

  135. Nicholas says:

    From Harvard with love,

    The State of the Nation’s Housing 2009

    This is the worst pile of drivel I have ever read. Not only does it contain outdated and irrelevant data I’m pretty sure that it is innacurate. I have lost respect for Harvard with this garbage.

    Was this paid for by the National Association of Realtors? Clearly there is a set of charts in there that indicates that 16.5% of mortgages are seriously delinquent. While this mortgage metric report shows that only about 5% are seriously delinquent (3/31/2009)
    http://www.occ.treas.gov/mortgage_report/2009/q1/seriously_delinquent_mortgages_by_risk.htm

    Were they referring to subprime mortgages only but forgot to mention that fact to the reader?

    Garbage, plain and simple.

  136. 3b says:

    Assuming no points, sorry. Although I will be having pints tonight.

  137. skep-tic says:

    #136

    “Where are the new buyers coming from??”

    employed renters who were formerly priced out

  138. grim says:

    Was this paid for by the National Association of Realtors?

    In part, yes.

    ————————

    SPONSORS

    The Ford Foundation and the Policy Advisory Board of the Joint Center for Housing Studies provide principal
    funding for the report. Additional support is provided by the Federal Home Loan Banks, Freddie Mac, the Housing
    Assistance Council, the National Association of Home Builders, the National Association of Housing and
    Redevelopment Officials, the National Association of Local Housing Finance Agencies, the National Association
    of Realtors®, the National Council of State Housing Agencies, the National Housing Conference, the National
    Housing Endowment, the National League of Cities, the National Low Income Housing Coalition, the National
    Multi Housing Council, the Research Institute for Housing America, and the United States Conference of Mayors.

  139. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    3b Depends on lender if you go Hudson City Bank really low like 500 1000 total others 3 -5k,also shop around for title guy/ins.That what I know, Clot should be on the money in this area.

  140. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Skep 141 how many of them you think have the cash for DP or do they go FHA 3-5% & start this cycle all over again.

  141. chicagofinance says:

    Nicolas:

    Strip the Harvard name off. Retsinas is a scumbag of the highest order and he runs the show. Ignore this crap.

    He has his hands dirty from Fannie, Freddie, HUD and ran the FHA…pretty sullied resume….
    http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/people/nic_retsinas.html

  142. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Skep that 10% unemployment number may be stable but it is historically high for US.
    Doesn’t bode well for housing.

  143. crossroads says:

    126 D

    don’t worry about the school system its about to get better w/ our new $80m+ high school. it will make our kids smarter!

    I haven’t been impressed myself. My kids are only in elementary school but their homework consists of one math ditto per night. if its a tough one it takes 5 min.

    we moved here in 06 and are renting. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard prices won’t go down here that Sparta is different. the high and low end seemed to have been hit hard but the mid price range has held its own

  144. Wag says:

    Cross (147) – Eighty million, best case. Major construction delays announced monthly/quarterly. Arrived in Sparta in 92 and amazed at the amount of money wasted since. The norm for NJ.

  145. Schumpeter says:

    Nicholas (139)-

    At the top of the market, these same Harvard dolts published a paper that said there was no bubble.

    Come to think of it, I was a dolt, too. Just thought we were going to have a normal correction. However, unlike my Harvard brethren, I am still somewhat capable of learning. These stooges are brain-dead.

    Too bad we were headed into a deflationary debt crisis/Depression.

  146. crossroads says:

    Skep

    I would think %6.25 rates would sink this market. If I remember rates were at about %6.5 when the market began to tank.

    144 miw

    I would imagine not many have the dp w/ NJ prices so high a %20 dp is a big chunk of change and why would you part with it. if the sh!t hits the fan hide your $ and save for two years and the fha is just setting up another wave of foreclosures the taxpayers will be bailing out.

  147. skep-tic says:

    #144

    FHA is majority of all lending now. With tax credit many people still able to buy with zero down. Silly lending caused massive bubble last time; now it is enough to keep prices from collapsing further. BTW, the treasury authorized hundreds of billions for fannie and freddie on christmas eve– their intention to prop up house prices couldn’t be clearer

  148. Schumpeter says:

    3b (140)-

    I’d say budget a minimum of 3.5% of your purchase price for prepaids and closing costs. That’s why the geniuses at FHA set that 3.5% number for the downpayment. The seller gives it back as a concession at closing, and the HUD-1 statement comes out clean as a whistle.

  149. crossroads says:

    wag

    my friend has been here since late 80′s and when he complained about taxes a newer resident told him if he can’t afford it he doesn’t belong here. his point was to cut down on the waste your talking about

  150. Schumpeter says:

    x-roads (150)-

    The rates won’t sink the market, as rates haven’t mattered in years.

    What will sink the market are massive, imminent defaults in the pipelines of Phony, Fraudy and Ginnie. After these three agencies collapse- yet again (remember, now you and I insure all those loans in one form or another), housing will be blasted into the dark ages for 20-40 years. I also believe this will lead to a chain of events the end in a universal UST default.

    My bet is that it will be closer to 40 than 20.

  151. crossroads says:

    151 skep

    doesn’t that answer your question as to where the new buyers are going to come from? %0 down. standards don’t seem to have changed much I talked to my mortgage guy and he told me I qualify for about 5x my base salary. where’s the tightening? people read national #’s and think they’re getting a deal

  152. grim says:

    FHA is majority of all lending now. With tax credit many people still able to buy with zero down.

    Super, so we replaced DAP with the Tax Credit.

    And we know how well those DAP FHA loans performed.

  153. skep-tic says:

    “standards don’t seem to have changed much I talked to my mortgage guy and he told me I qualify for about 5x my base salary. where’s the tightening? people read national #’s and think they’re getting a deal”

    exactly. you need to have a job (unlike in 2005), but credit is still pretty loose overall. 30 yrs of history tell us that U.S. consumers will borrow to the max whenever possible. It is hard times for people who have lost a job but the overall debt culture has not changed very much. Mentality of the WWII generation still remains very distant.

  154. 3b says:

    #153 I have heard form those types over the years. They change their tune mightily when they get laid off. That stupid attitude Seems to be more prevelant in the wannabe towns

  155. grim says:

    This paper should be expanded to include the FTHB tax credit:

    http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_7608/is_200807/ai_n32306316/?tag=content;col1

  156. grim says:

    Combine the FTHB Credit, Downpayment Gifts from Relatives, and FHA, and you’ve got a whole new underwear bomb to worry about.

    Zero down, all over again.

  157. 3b says:

    #152 Schumpt: Thanks.

  158. 3b says:

    #141 employed renters who were formerly priced out.

    You are assuming that they are priced back in.

  159. grim says:

    On a lighter note, from the Record:

    Little Falls resident buys Bruce Springsteen’s former cottage

    A woman from Little Falls is one of three New Jersey residents who recently purchased a house where singer/songwriter Bruce Springsteen used to live. Located on West End Court in Long Branch, the house is also where Springsteen is said to have written songs for his album, “Born to Run.”

    Kim McDermott, along with her brother Gerard Ferrara of North Arlington, and friend Ryan DeCarolis of Lincroft, purchased the 828-square-foot-house, for $280,000.

  160. Schumpeter says:

    FHA actively encourages zero-down borrowing.

    FHA is the only viable mechanism for volume financing of home purchases in the current market.

    The minute an FHA loan closes, the borrower is underwater.

    Being underwater is the #1 predictor of imminent default.

    FHA has been operating for weeks without sufficient loss reserves.

    The US taxpayer is the only viable mortgage insurer left on the planet.

    How will this end well?

  161. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    N.J. woman works to negotiate mortgage problems with bank, but efforts are declined

    Monica Parchment could only think of one thing when sheriff’s officers boarded up a house on her street a few months ago.

    “I’m next,” she said. “Tears came to my eyes.”

    She saw the officers put the furniture out on Linden Place in Orange. Then watched it get soaked a few days later when rain fell. Parchment, 52, has been trying for a year to keep this from happening to her. She is behind $19,000 on her mortgage and trying with no success to negotiate mortgage relief with Bank of America, which assumed her mortgage when it merged with Countrywide Home Loans.

  162. Schumpeter says:

    What is occurring now is nothing short of outright theft, on so many levels that it’s sickening.

    It won’t just be the next generation. It’s going to hit the children of our children.

    And they will all look at us as the people who ruined it all.

  163. Jpasteurized says:

    http://money.cnn.com/2009/12/31/real_estate/home_price_drop/index.htm

    snip

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — After four months of gains, home prices flattened in October. Worse yet, industry insiders think that they’ll soon start to fall.

    Prices have risen more than 3% since May, according to S&P/Case-Shiller.

    But most forecasts predict price declines in 2010, with possible losses ranging from anywhere from 3% on up. Fiserv Lending Solutions, a financial analytics firm, forecasts that prices will fall in all but 39 of the 381 markets it covers, with an average drop of 11.3%.

    “We’ve seen recent price stabilization because of low mortgage interest rates and the impact of the first-time homebuyers tax credit,” said Pat Newport of IHS Global Research. “But there are really good reasons to think prices will now start going down.”

    There are three main reasons for the reversal: a coming flood of foreclosures, rising interest rates and the eventual end of the tax credits.

    snip

    Seems to sum up well what people have been saying here the past few days.

  164. 3b says:

    #160 Well than do we assume that the FTHB tax credit is extended after April 30??

  165. 3b says:

    Spring Selling season starts Monday jnaury 4, 2010.

  166. 3b says:

    Just finished reviewing FHA guidelines/qualifications again.

    Seems to me if you meet the requirements/parameters, it makes perfect sense to go FA, even with the upfront insurance premium, and 0.5% monthy insurance pymt for 5 years.

  167. freedy says:

    the only way chase came around to my way
    of thinking , was i told them i was walking away. then i got somewhere and
    settled .

    “and the titanic had a band”

  168. Nicholas says:

    Thanks for the confirmation that the report was garbage. Most of the data showed 2008 numbers anyway. I thought for a moment that I somehow got linked to an outdated report.

    On the topic of FHA lending the Treasury and the GSEs recently came out and said that they were tightening lending standards. ZH is looking for people with first hand knowledge to verify that redline FICOs are going up.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/agency-fico-redline-question-ask

    I agree that these zero down home loans are definitely putting these mortgages at very high default risk.

    It will be very interesting to see where we go in the next few months now that FHA standards are tightening and all that pulled-forward demand from the housing credit.

  169. Schumpeter says:

    3b (169)-

    The Spring selling season is already dead. Stillborn.

  170. Schumpeter says:

    3b (170)-

    Yeah. Just remember that if you like your mortgage guy, make at least three payments before you default. That way, his company is off the hook and doesn’t get investigated.

  171. Nicholas says:

    Well than do we assume that the FTHB tax credit is extended after April 30??

    I read somewhere that in order to get the housing credit extended till April 2010 that the NAR lobbying arm had to sign a sealed pact *in blood* that they wouldn’t come back again. Congress will not support another extension to the FTHB tax credit nor are they ever going to be intrested in making it permanent in the tax code.

    Wish I could find the link as it was a first hand account of a recent regional realtors meeting.

  172. Schumpeter says:

    Nicholas (175)-

    We all know that the promises are out the window once TSHTF (which will be on May 1).

    Furthermore, we all know that you just need to get down on one knee in front of rictus-face Pelosi, and the wheels will start turning for whatever criminal soulution one wants to propose.

  173. Schumpeter says:

    Guess it’s better to be staring at Rictus Face’s crotch, rather than Barney’s frankfurter.

  174. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Clot your just a ray of sunshine today.
    Not that you are wrong.
    As far as spring selling season getting a lot of new ones on the hot sheet for my area. I mean new, not ones I’ve seen before.Noticed more in the upper range. The kicker is a builder doing Mcmansions 11 done 11 more to be built at 449. That should end well , WTF are these people thinking.

  175. skep-tic says:

    if foreclosures go nuts and house prices start wildly dropping again, money will fall from the sky to stabilize it, no matter what promises to the NAR were previously made. NAR isn’t the big hitter in the room, it is the banks.

  176. Nicholas says:

    You mean that TS hasn’t already HTF? I beg to differ, I think that some seriously F’ed up things have been happening over the year and all are leading to some serious pain.

    My guess is that the NAR is going to be waaaay down on collected dues in 2010 and the lobbying arm will be severly drained of loot. I’m not sure you get much knee time in front of the rictus-faced and frankfurters with empty pockets.

    I predict an end to the FTHB credit in april. I will put money on that if someone wants to take the other side of the bet.

  177. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Nicholas 175 saw/read that to. Can’t say where either.

  178. BC Bob says:

    “We’ve seen recent price stabilization because of low mortgage interest rates and the impact of the first-time homebuyers tax credit,” said Pat Newport of IHS Global Research. “But there are really good reasons to think prices will now start going down.”

    Trillions in stimulus and the best we get is stabilization? Very ominous. The market will wipe out this additional, artificial support, like a knife thru butter. All the govt has accomplished is extending this bust from 5-7 years to approx 15-20 years. They are masters in delaying, yet can not alter. Unfortunately, they piss away trillions in their futile attempt.

  179. Nicholas says:

    House prices will drop no matter how much money falls from the sky because house prices moved beyond peoples ability to pay. Too many houses were built.

    The deleveraging of the US household will result in one of two things; people will pay off thier debt or they will default on their debt.

    Forclosures will continue and even get stronger as we head into the Alt-A, Option-ARM resets of the 2010-2012. The banks are self healing in that all they need to do is stop lending and eventually receipts from performing loans will cover the losses from non-performing loans. They just didn’t anticipate such a steep drop so quickly and needed a front from FED to keep them solvent.

    I stand behind my call that FTHB credit will be gone come April.

  180. BC Bob says:

    “Kim McDermott, along with her brother Gerard Ferrara of North Arlington, and friend Ryan DeCarolis of Lincroft, purchased the 828-square-foot-house, for $280,000.”

    JB,

    We said hello to Gerard at the Bruce GTG in AP.

  181. syncmaster says:

    525-575k 3-bedroom townhouses going up in Metuchen. WTF, is this the affordable housing market we all thought was coming?

  182. Outofstater says:

    #153 “if he can’t afford it he doesn’t belong here.” You know, that sums up the entire consumer culture. No thought as to whether an item or a service is actually worth the purchase price. To consider worth is to admit to being a loser. Clever psychological ploy, and deadly to the pocketbook.

  183. Nicholas says:

    That brings up another great point. Isn’t the QE supposed to end in Feb/Mar? Won’t that result in higher mortgage rates as the FED won’t be buying MBS anymore?

    What are you going to do when mortgage rates rise and home prices fall?

  184. 3b says:

    #174 schumpt: Oh I won’t default. I may be wrong, but in my case, I only need a house in this area for the next 15 years or so. I can rent now like I have been, or rent from the bank. Current rental house is just OK, but would not stay in it for the 15 years even if I could. Plus at some point owner will sell. He has offered several times sto sell it, but we would not buy it. So The owner says I can stay as long as I want, and when we go he is selling it.

    We could go to a better rental but don’t want the hassel of having to move every 2-3 years over the next 15 years, assuming owner wanted to sell, and we did not want to buy.

    So in my mind why not go FHA, pay it every month, not like the wankers who are defaulting because they bought more than they could afford, or because they are underwater.

    (And speaking of underwater so what? If you can afford the payments should you not pay? We were underwater in our first house for years,and sold it at a loss. I don’t recall any one talking about strategic defaults back in the 90′s).

    And then sell it when we are ready. I don’t expect to “make any money” on it, just sell it, and maybe get what i “paid” for it.

    Which brings me to my final point, which is anybody who has bought recently opr plans to should not expect to “make any money on it.” I think real estate as a so called investment is dead for a generation.

  185. Happy New Years everyone!

    … I get the feeling this is going to be a long year.

  186. freedy says:

    500k townhouses in nj anywhere is crazy

  187. freedy says:

    taxes,, what 12k ? plus the maintenance,, 400/500 per month.

  188. #192 – Wow, I had no idea they were going for that much!
    The 250 Lusso is my personal fav.

  189. grim says:

    Actually kind of impressive that that thing is putting out 352 horsepower.

    Remember that the original F40 only put out 471 horsepower, dubbed the worlds fastest supercar, and that was some 15 years later in ’87.

    Thought they were sharp looking cars, but never did realize they had the guts to put down a sub 6 zero to 60.

    Although Brock Yates did drive one coast to coast in 35 hours, can’t argue about the car not being quick.

  190. Schumpeter says:

    3b (188)-

    It’s all rent, one way or the other.

    I just like the idea of not paying it to a bank.

  191. Schumpeter says:

    I also think it is nuts NOT to have short sale/deed-in-lieu/strategic foreclosure on the table at all times as a viable option.

  192. Schumpeter says:

    The banks (which owns the gubmint) has targeted us as the enemy. Short of finding bankers and shooting them, how else do you fight back?

  193. Schumpeter says:

    Then again, maybe finding bankers and shooting them should also remain a viable option. :)

    Take that, NSA.

  194. safeashouses says:

    Clot,

    Have you come across any buyers who go FHA, default, live payment free in the house for 2 to 3 years, then move overseas?

  195. Schumpeter says:

    Just like Mr. Durden says, watch the spread between the 1 yr ARM and 30-fixed as a barometer of how hard the Fed will work at making itself the biggest dumpster of all time:

    “A week ago Zero Hedge discussed the spread between the Freddie 1 Year ARM and the 30 Year fixed, concluding that the recent record spread is indicative that the Fed will do all it can to become the new subprime lender of any resort, even if it means creating exponentially more roll risk, as it seeks to lend money regardless of the probability of ultimate payback.”

    [snip]

    “However, our original observation is that even as the 30 Year Fixed has finally started to move in line with the 10 Year Treasury, which just can’t find a floor in the past week, the 30 Year Fixed – 1 Year ARM spread has simply exploded: when we looked at its last it was 60 bps, a week later, it is now at 81 bps. The Fed is now literally throwing money away in the form of Adjustable Rate Mortgages.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/freddie-30-year-fixed-514-4-month-high-30-year-1-year-arm-spread-hits-another-absolute-recor

  196. Schumpeter says:

    safe (200)-

    No, but I’d love to.

  197. NJGator says:

    BC – re Just Jake’s – I’ve never been, and Stu is not a fan, but he hasn’t been there in many years.

    Let us know if you wind up in our neck of the woods.

  198. safeashouses says:
  199. safeashouses says:

    #202 Clot

    I’ve read stories of illegal aliens buying multifamily homes, collecting the rent and never making a mtg payment.

  200. cobbler says:

    A puzzler for financially educated: why (and, really, is it at all) straightforward printing currency and using it to pay for say roadbuilding is any more inflationary than giving not-expected-to-be-returned cash-out refinance loans for the overvalued collateral?

  201. grim says:

    We really need to revisit the 2009 predictions thread:

    http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/12/22/predictions-2009/

  202. grim says:

    And get a 2010 thread up

  203. BklynHawk says:

    Happy New Year to all NJREREPORTers!

  204. safe (205)-

    Those stories are true. Lots of that in central NJ.

  205. cobbler (206)-

    Both are actually deflationary practices, as they either create nothing of real value or bad debt that has to be written down.

  206. Shore Guy says:

    Well, ww satvdown and wrote out some final charitable contributions today. Although down somwhat from last year, it still came to a few last thousands on the year. That said, I don’t see us giving away $10k/year in ’10 and beyond, as I expect to feel the heavy hand of taxation to be an ever oppressive part of our lives.

    As for a prediction, I think we will see the Dow back at 9K before the sun sets on ’10.

  207. Shore Guy says:

    Well, we sat down and wrote out some final charitable contributions today. Although down somwhat from last year, it still came to a few last thousands on the year. That said, I don’t see us giving away $10k/year in ’10 and beyond, as I expect to feel the heavy hand of taxation to be an ever oppressive part of our lives.

    As for a prediction, I think we will see the Dow back at 9K before the sun sets on ’10.

  208. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    213 Red-Clot

    Amen!

    sl

  209. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    Question for the realtors.

    A family member and wife went to sell her condo. Had a buyer, alleged sale agreement, 10% deposit, and a closing date.

    Closing never happens. According to family member, buyer has a mortgage with a company not licensed (??) in NJ.

    Is this possible.

    Wife formerly (read: “years and years ago”) was a legal secretary and thinks she is a lawyer. They (as I understand it) do not have a lawyer representing them. The RE agent is an old (in every sense of the word) friend of said wife.

    WTF is this? Family member called me. They moved in with her daughter and SIL, and condo is swept clean.

    I’m tempted to tell them to move the f*ck back.

    sl

  210. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Clot 216 Amateur night is right. Laying low.

  211. cobbler says:

    Harsh lessons we may need to learn again
    By Joseph E. Stiglitz


    In 2009, we again saw why Adam Smith’s invisible hand often appeared invisible: it is not there. The bankers’ pursuit of self-interest (greed) did not lead to the well-being of society; it did not even serve their shareholders and bondholders well. It certainly did not serve homeowners who are losing their homes, workers who have lost their jobs, retirees who have seen their retirement funds vanish, or taxpayers who paid hundreds of billions of dollars to bail out the banks.

    The fifth lesson is that not all innovation leads to a more efficient and productive economy – let alone a better society. Private incentives matter, and if they are not well aligned with social returns, the result can be excessive risk taking, excessively shortsighted behavior, and distorted innovation. For example, while the benefits of many of the financial-engineering innovations of recent years are hard to prove, let alone quantify, the costs associated with them – both economic and social – are apparent and enormous.

    Indeed, financial engineering did not create products that would help ordinary citizens manage the simple risk of home ownership – with the consequence that millions have lost their homes, and millions more are likely to do so. Instead, innovation was directed at perfecting the exploitation of those who are less educated, and at circumventing the regulations and accounting standards that were designed to make markets more efficient and stable. As a result, financial markets, which are supposed to manage risk and allocate capital efficiently, created risk and misallocated wildly.

    We will soon find out whether we have learned the lessons of this crisis any better than we should have learned the same lessons from previous crises.

    Regrettably, unless the United States and other advanced industrial countries make much greater progress on financial-sector reforms in 2010 we may find ourselves faced with another opportunity to learn them.

    The author is an Economics Nobel laureate and university professor at Columbia University. He has many books, including Globalization and Its Discontents and The Roaring Nineties, to his credit. His latest book, Freefall, will be published in January.

    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2009-12/31/content_9249981.htm

  212. 3b says:

    HappY New Years To All!!

  213. lisoosh aka Tan-tric says:

    The economic ‘experts’ who stopped making sense
    Why, despite the financial crisis, do we still put our faith in economists, asks Edmund Conway.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/edmundconway/6914740/The-economic-experts-who-stopped-making-sense.html

    “…economics is a science which employs some of the world’s most intelligent people and most powerful computers in order to prove the bleeding obvious. When I first started writing about the subject, one excited academic told me to look into behavioural economics, which he described as the most “exciting and radical” of all the fields of economic research. Its most edgy, controversial finding? That people occasionally behave irrationally, driven by emotion rather than reason. Well, duh.

  214. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    clot? grim?

    help? 217?

    sl

  215. 3b says:

    For those who care,below is Robbie Burns original version of Auld Lang Syne, with what is said to be the original music he intended. Enjoy!!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S7EuA2ScKYU

  216. Yeah NYE is amateur night. So I’m staying home where I’ll be drinking red apple sangria and I’ll be asleep by midnight. Cause I ain’t no amateur. :)

  217. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    :) lost, awesome idea!

    sl

  218. SL
    Come on over we got plenty!

  219. sas says:

    suspecting that CIA/Afgan situation was a drug related hit.

    SAS

  220. sas says:

    so, the news is doing there wee farewells to those who passed in 2009. MJ was highlighted as took up alot of time.

    so, doesn’t matter if your pedophile, as long as you can dance a jig across the floor its ok.

    SAS

  221. sl (217)-

    Well, the buyer needs to find a lender who can lend in NJ. If they qualified for a loan from an out-of-state outfit, they can qualify again.

    A PIA, but this is what happens in do-it-yourself RE.

  222. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    thanks Red-Clot – and happy New Year!

    sl

  223. sl (217)-

    Don’t have the escrow agent give back that buyer’s deposit, and tell the buyer it will be pursued as liquidated damages if they don’t proceed to qualify for a NJ mortgage forthwith.

    Note: your family member should consult an attorney. I am not an attorney and don’t give legal advice. This is just my opinion.

  224. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    lost 226,

    I wish…. you can’t imaging how much I wish….been a bad week. But what else is new lately…

    Hopefully your ankle is better than my brain right now… :)

    sl

  225. A good ’10 to you, sl.

    F^ck New Year’s.

  226. TCCR

    Clot you sure you don’t want to go into collections?

  227. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    She’s the kind of person who (having been a legal secretary Years! and Years ago) thinks she slept a Holiday Inn Express and is now a lawyer….

    Cannot.Tell.This.Person.Anything.

    So I am trying to gently advise the other family member……TO GET A LAWYER!

    They shut off the phone, cleaned out house, moved in with family members and are due to leave for Florida (snowbirds) on the 9th.

    How f*ucked up is this??

    sl

  228. sl (236)-

    If you can’t tell her anything, then f- her. She can live and learn. Or just lose.

  229. lost (235)-

    I want to collect. I just want to collect cars.

    If I ever retire, I will be a repo guy.

  230. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    Is it time for alcohol yet?

    Trying to find this neat vodka I got in Austria, called “Feigling” vodka — fig flavored! It’s got a cute cartoon fig on it with googly eyes. :)

    sl

  231. frank says:

    2009 was best year ever, I made a lot of money this year.
    Let’s hope 2010 is just as good.
    Happy New Year!!!

  232. Not even 2010 yet, and here’s my favorite story of the year:

    “If you are wealthy, please don’t die in 2009. Hang on for another day.

    Then, if you are terminally ill but with some time to live, consider moving to Holland where euthanasia is legal. Such is the idiocy of US tax law.

    My Stand? I am all in favor of the right to die. However, I am opposed to laws that make it enormously tax advantageous to kill yourself (or for that matter someone to kill you).”

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/12/tax-laws-encourage-euthanasia-in-2010.html

  233. Please die in 2010, Frank.

    I hope they bury you in a piano with Rush Limbaugh mounting you from behind.

  234. 239 SL

    DH just started pouring the sangria. Its sooooo good. Come over!

  235. 238 TCCR

    I hope you move fast. Those repo guys are fast. I volunteer to help distract victims, er um deadbeats. :)

  236. Stu says:

    BC,

    Just Jakes is Montclair’s attempt at Bennigan’s. The crowd is mostly just legal age since the drinks are not overly expensive. May be the only place in Montclair that sells pitchers. The food is pretty terrible. Basically a college bar, but most of the students have already graduated. Lots of cover bands as well. Very un-Montclair actually.

    Happy Stu Year everybody!

  237. sas says:

    “Is it tomorrow yet?”

    i sure hope so.

    i can’t take new years eve hype.

    i guess it a way the idiot public can dilute themselves from the real world.

    SAS

  238. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Happy New Year all!
    I will not make it till 12 & really don’t care. Up at 430 & tired. Maybe the scotch is helping! Goodnight Moon.

  239. sas says:

    “Tanker Glut Signals 25% Drop on 26-Mile Line of Ships ”
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZuN.I1f8RoM&pos=7

    - A 26-mile-long line of idled oil tankers, enough to blockade the English Channel, may signal a 25 percent slump in freight rates next year.

  240. scribe, The Princess of Paramus says:

    Channel 2 CBS News at 11 pm just had a short segment on new laws for the New Year …

    In NJ, you can now buy 1 handgun every 30 days. The announcer quoted Corzine as saying that was to slow down the rate at which people can purchase handguns.

    I am not making this up.

  241. scribe, The Princess of Paramus says:

    From the Home News Tribune:

    Council president takes parting shot during final vote on Woodbridge budget

    By SERGIO BICHAO
    STAFF WRITER

    Before the final vote Tuesday night on an amendment to the tax-hiking $114.2 million fiscal year budget, each Township Council member took a turn to praise the administration’s efforts at keeping the cost of government and taxes as low as possible.

    But there was no such approval from council President Robert Luban, who took the unusual step of voting against the measure during a meeting notable for both the debate that erupted among the council members and the 8-1 vote on the spending plan itself.

    Luban’s vote and objection to police overtime sparked a heated exchange between the Colonia councilman and 1st Ward Councilman Charles Kenny — an atypical display on a council dais that for years has mostly gotten along and been controlled by Democrats. Luban switched party affiliation in the spring and was re-elected in November. Despite the break, the council allowed Luban to finish his term as president, which ended Tuesday.

    On Tuesday night, Kenny pressed Luban to explain his comments.

    “It’s called just not spending,” Luban snapped. “It’s real easy to sit up here and to spend other people’s money.”

    “This is the first time in years you voted no. You must have gotten religion,” Kenny said.

    “No. I became a Republican and I saw the light,” Luban replied, a comment Mayor John E. McCormac, who serves on Republican Gov.-elect Chris Christie’s transition team, later said proved Luban was “playing games” and politics with the budget.

    The spending plan will raise taxes $129 for a home assessed at the average price of $75,000.

    McCormac sat silently during the Luban and Kenny shouting match but did speak to call comments by gadfly Tom Maras “absolutely ridiculous” and accuse longtime political foe John Vrtaric of making up numbers when both blasted police department promotions and compensation, which is often about $90,000 a year.

    http://www.mycentraljersey.com/article/20091231/NEWS/912310331/Council+president+takes+parting+shot+during+final+vote+on+Woodbridge+budget

  242. syncmaster says:

    Woodbridge has awesome Indian food.

  243. bones deplume says:

    Happy New Year everyone. Hope 2010 is an improvement on the year past.

  244. njescapee says:

    Happy New Year from the Florida Keys!!

  245. leftwing says:

    Happy New Year from Ottawa.

    Kids teams won out at the hockey tourney here so we went out.

    Some advice. In Canada, it is allowed (nee expected) to get on stage and lay on your back with money in your mouth and the girls ‘pluck’ it out.

    bizarrely, you can’t get upsatirs without a girl but there aren’t many on the floor.

    once you’re up there, they double count piercings. unfair. lost that bet evry time but it didnt matter, who cares.

    still….there’s only so many times you can pierce one body part. ouch.

    explained ‘rainbow’ parties to the dads who have daughters (I have two sons, only). Oops.

    Cheers. Wish us luck.

  246. mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Happy New Year!

    Leftwing I didn’t get half of it, but I do know I want to go there.

  247. iphone konig says:

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    apple brightness overwhelming term end past december stories

  249. iphonekönig says:

    thanks for this – happy holidays :D

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