Corzine Approves Buyer Rebates

From the Star Ledger:

Corzine passes real estate legislation

Two days before Gov. Jon S. Corzine was due to leave office he signed two pieces of real estate related legislation into law, according to a release.

The state’s housing crisis influenced state politicians to sponsor real estate laws that both benefit victims of foreclosures and buyers looking to take advantage of the down market.

The first measure now makes it legal for real estate brokers to pass some of their profits onto their clients.

Before this latest move, it was illegal for real estate agents to entice potential clients with the promise of a cash. New Jersey was one of 11 states that didn’t allow the incentive.

The act allows an individual real estate agent to decide whether to pay their clients or not, and stream lines business policies for some nationwide real estate brokerages.

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360 Responses to Corzine Approves Buyer Rebates

  1. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    Mortgage Rates to Average 6% by End of 2010: PMI Group

    PMI Group’s latest monthly Housing and Mortgage Market Review projects mortgage rates will gradually rise over the coming months and average 6% by the end of 2010.

    However, PMI adds this projection is subject to the uncertainties surrounding the end of the Federal Reserve’s mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchase program. Even after the program ends, it is possible the Fed could re-enter the market if mortgage rates spike or the housing market stumbles, the report said.

    This echoes other projections Freddie Mac’s chief economist made to HousingWire last week. PMI Group said short-term interest rates will show little change during 2010, before rising significantly in 2011. Longer-term rates are projected to move modestly upward over the year.

  2. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Treasury Delay on Bank Home-Equity Debt Imperils Housing Pickup

    The U.S. Treasury Department has failed to win agreements to get struggling borrowers’ home- equity debt reworked, among the biggest roadblocks to reducing foreclosures that may reach a record 3 million this year.

    None of the lenders holding a combined $1.05 trillion in the debt has signed contracts requiring participation in the second-mortgage modification plan announced eight months ago. The largest banks remain “committed” to joining, Meg Reilly, a department spokeswoman, said in an e-mail.

    “The issue of the second liens has to be escalated,” said Richard Neiman, New York’s banking superintendent and a member the Troubled Asset Relief Program’s Congressional oversight panel. The government should consider forcing banks to participate and to recognize the “true value” of second liens, he said.

  3. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    Holiday Moratoria Didn’t Reduce Foreclosures

    I wasn’t exactly surprised to see the total year-end foreclosure tallies from RealtyTrac today, but I was surprised to see that foreclosures actually surged in December, which is traditionally/historically a slow month because lenders impose moratoria over the holidays. They know no sheriff wants to toss the family out of a home with a Christmas tree.

    Still foreclosures in December surged 14 percent from the previous month, according to today’s report.

    I would also add that we are seeing many of those borrowers who did not make the final cut in the government’s Home Affordable Modification Program go back onto the foreclosure rolls.

  4. grim says:

    From CNN/Money:

    Budget ax to fall on New York

    New York’s governor is set Tuesday to unveil a painful budget plan that is likely to use fee increases and service cuts to close a yawning fiscal gap.

    The state’s woes are a bellwether of what others around the nation are facing. New York’s fiscal year starts in April, the earliest of any state. Its fiscal troubles — and Gov. David Paterson’s solutions — are being closely monitored.

    In the wake of the steepest drop in tax collections in nearly half a century, governors and legislators are wrestling with slashing services and hiking taxes in order to close an estimated $21.9 billion collective budget gap.

    New York’s deficit is the fourth largest nationwide, in terms of dollars, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

    California, the state in the most peril, must contend with a $14.4 billion gap, while Illinois faces a $12.8 billion deficit and New Jersey an $8 billion hole. These states have all made painful decisions to eliminate their shortfalls.

  5. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Christie hoping to cut teachers union’s clout

    Governor-elect Chris Christie’s bull-in-a-china-shop battle with the New Jersey Education Association, whose 200,000-strong militia of teachers makes it the state’s most powerful union, has been a colorful sideshow to this transition period.

    But when Christie formally becomes New Jersey’s 55th governor today, the skirmish will morph into something else — the organizing principle of Christie’s new administration.

    Christie has taken a bold, strategic gamble by taking on the biggest guy on West State Street. But if he is able to force NJEA to buckle, then the rest of Trenton’s high council of special interests – state worker unions, politically connected hospitals, business groups — will follow.

  6. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Christie the Terminator?

    Chris Christie knows no one is ever going to confuse him with Arnold Schwarzenegger. In contrast to the sculpted body of the actor-turned-California governor, Mr. Christie’s girth even became an issue in last year’s gubernatorial contest in New Jersey. Arguably it was a winning issue for Mr. Christie, given the humorous way in which he turned a snarky attack ad to his advantage.

    Certainly the future looks bleak. Within two months, Mr. Christie must produce a new budget for 2011. To put this in context, that means balancing a budget in a state whose spending has given New Jerseyites a per capita debt load that is among the highest in the nation, whose income and property taxes are among the most crushing in the nation, and whose rankings in state-by-state comparisons of the business climate typically rank last or near last in the nation.

    The encouraging news is that Mr. Christie has ruled out raising taxes as a means for solving this problem. He has done so publicly and repeatedly. People close to the new governor say he has done this deliberately, as a message to the legislature and even his staff not to come to him with the same old solutions that have people fleeing the state. And he has done so knowing full well that if he reneges on so public a pledge, he will be crucified for it.

    “New Jersey’s problem is not something that can be handled with green eyeshades,” says Richard Bagger, the incoming chief of staff for the new governor. “People need to understand that we cannot solve our fiscal problems without policy reforms that address the structural problems feeding public spending and harming our businesses and entrepreneurs.”

  7. Freddie Mac has a chief economist? They have economists?

    That’s like the Mafia hiring economists.

    No, I take that back. The Mafia is a more honorable group.

  8. grim says:

    From the NY Times:

    Problems Mount at a Bronx Building Bought in a Bubble

    It was in the community room on the ground floor of 1520 Sedgwick Avenue in the West Bronx that a young D.J. and his turntables helped to invent hip-hop, the music that spawned a global culture.

    A generation later, eyes again turned to the hulking brick tower overlooking the Harlem River when tenants, politicians and housing advocates fought to keep the building in a state-run rent-protection program and out of the hands of real estate investors.

    They lost the battle, and the building was sold in 2008. Now, more than a year later, housing code violations have piled up, and tenants are seething at the new landlords. Advocates and analysts say that the building’s problems could be a harbinger of a housing crisis in the city’s low-income neighborhoods, especially in the Bronx.

    Here, it is not individual homes that are most under threat of foreclosure — it is whole apartment buildings occupied by hundreds of families. And it was not the residents who took out the heavy loans — it was investors who live far from the overleveraged properties.

    Since the new owners took over at 1520 Sedgwick Avenue in the fall of 2008, the number of violations has jumped to 598 from 82, an increase of more than 600 percent, according to the Department of Housing Preservation and Development.

    When Clive Campbell, otherwise known as D.J. Kool Herc, held the much-celebrated hip-hop parties in the community room in the early 1970s — parties many see as crucial to the early evolution of hip-hop — the whole building was invited.

    Today, a ride in the building’s lurching elevator provides a glimpse of current conditions. It is far from the worst of buildings. But the testimony can be powerful.

  9. Mr Hyde says:

    Morning all,

    thanks for the thoughts yesterday. Just fine if a little annoyed. The guy who rear-ended me while i was stopped at a light promptly got out of his care and wanted to know why the hell i stopped so fast?.?.?.?.?.

    Need a new bumper and thats about it. The car is an older saturn and i was willing to settle up off the books after getting an estimate, and the guy balked. He then got pissed when i said we would have to report the accident. what a clown!

  10. Mr Hyde says:

    Code red 7

    I would have more faith in the mafia running the show. At least they “handle” those who dont perform.

  11. Mr Hyde says:

    Veto

    think of the housing cycle in terms of the business cycle. its a longterm trend and it can be delayed but not prevented. This buildup took 7 years, this isnt going to workout overnight

  12. hyde (9)-

    Too bad you’re not packing. You could’ve shot him.

  13. Anyone who thinks anything is “recovering” in this country should spend four days in FL. Your choice of city, doesn’t matter.

    We have the exact same problem in NJ as there. Only difference is, nobody calls our bad loans “subprime”. However, shit is shit…no matter how you label it.

  14. CC vs NJEA should be a great source of entertainment this year.

  15. I have seen oblivion. And, it wears mouse ears and tells you to gather your belongings and have a nice day.

  16. It’s a small world, after all…a magical world where you can stuff a tiny Nordic country full of toxic loans and bring it to its knees.

  17. renter says:

    It is interesting that almost everyone I know in Ohio has been impacted by this recession in some way. Five families I know there have gone from two wage earner families to one. I realize this is anecdotal however I never hear anyone in NJ talk about job losses or difficulty. I hear and believe Mr. Clotpoli that he is getting call after call about people wanting to unload their house but boy sometimes it does seem like “it’s different here.”

  18. jamil says:

    don’t worry. all those rich lawyers and their spending will revive the economy. Uh no..maybe they can get into community organizing business?

    From NYT..

    “The Deep End” was conceived in 2007, that halcyon era of $160,000 starting salaries and full employment even for law grads who had scored in the 150s on their LSAT’s.

    Those days are over. As the profession lurches through its worst slump in decades, with jobs and bonuses cut and internal pressures to perform rising, associates do not just feel as if they are diving into the deep end, but rather, drowning.

    Lawyers who entered the field as recently as a few years ago could reasonably expect a life of comfort, security and social esteem. Many are now faced with a different landscape. Firms shed more than 4,600 lawyers last year, according to a blog that tracks the legal industry, Law Shucks. Bonuses for those who survive are shriveling, and an increasing number of firms now compensate associates based on grades for performance — shades of law school — rather than automatically advancing them on the salary scale.

    For those just starting out, it’s easy to think that the rules have changed six minutes into the first period.

    “I thought, ‘Great, I can afford to buy a house at 23,’ ” said Jacqueline Muna Musiitwa, recalling her first year as an associate in 2006 at Pillsbury in San Francisco. “If I start this way at 23, goodness knows what it will be like when I’m 40.”

  19. House Whine says:

    17- You never hear people in NJ talk about job losses? Wow. Can I live in your town? Granted, I don’t actually see foreclosures in my neighborhood, unlike what I saw in Florida. But job losses, here they are a plenty.

  20. jamil says:

    19: I just heard a guy who lost his job in NJ..Last day at office today I think..

    J.Corzane or something.

  21. renter says:

    Perhaps I should have said that I don’t know anyone who has lost their job here but so many people I know in Ohio have lost a job.

  22. I wondered when Mish or one of the blogs would get hold of this story. Amazingly, Diana Olick gets it first. I’d put her on my short list of reporters at CNBC about to get Ratiganed.

    “In order for a short sale with two loans to happen, the second lien holder has to drop the lien. If they don’t, and there’s no short sale, the home goes to foreclosure and the first lien holder gets the house because second liens are subordinated debt to the primary loan.

    In short, the second lien holder gets nothing. In order to get the second lien holder to drop the lien, the first lien holder generally negotiates some partial payment to the second lien holder. The second lien holder doesn’t have to agree, but more and more are doing so.

    That’s all legal.

    But here’s what’s not legal and what’s apparently happening quite often recently. Since many second lien holders are getting very little, they are now allegedly requesting money on the side from either real estate agents or the buyers in the short sale. When I say “on the side,” I mean in cash, off the HUD settlement statements, so the first lien holder doesn’t see it.”

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/01/surprise-surprise-big-banks-accused-of.html

  23. lisoosh aka Tan-tric says:

    renter – NJ is more about show. They’re hurting, they just don’t want the neighbours to know.

  24. rent (17)-

    I’ll make you the same offer as I’ve made to anyone else here (except Jamil, who I think I’d shoot before the end of the first day): come spend a week with me, and tell me what you think at the end of it about how “it’s different here”.

  25. Whine (19)-

    Mortgages are paid from paychecks, which come from jobs. No jobs, no mortgage payments. Where there are no jobs, there is- or will be- default.

  26. rent (17)-

    We can start with a lis pendens tour of Far Hills, Peapack, Bernardsville and Tewksbury.

    Then, perhaps we can visit a mortgage shop that plays it a little fast-and-loose with FHA.

    All great fun!

  27. Annie says:

    I never hear anyone in NJ talk about job losses or difficulty.

    You need to get out more.

  28. Veto That - 'The Operation' says:

    “think of the housing cycle in terms of the business cycle”

    Hyde, i realize that re is a slow moving asset class But i am still waiting to be convinced that re booms and busts occur every ten years on the dot, especially with the absence of a consistent price index that goes back more than two busts to prove it. Also, if its true that this happens, what is the underlying economic reason for the repetitive process? Political and economic cycles can last for 20-30 years at a time, so why is RE dancing to its own music?
    Also, I challenge Grim’s comments (or whoever was posting as Grim) last night that re must slog across the bottom for 5 years before moving up.
    Prices busted for two years after the 1988 peak. They hit bottom in 1991. Over the next 7 years, through 1998, they were up 18%. So if you are wondering where Otteau got his 2% per year prediction last week, well now you know. I realize that the 2% per year was less than inflation, as we have previously researched, but if that is slogging across the bottom, than slogging across the bottom is a relative term that is subject to interpretation – because prices were not flat.
    So, my question is why cant prices go up from here in the same manner this time?
    They werent giving away $6k per buyer as incentive during that time, nor did they have ZIRP.
    i am not saying ‘definately’, but i am open to the strong possibility that four months ago was the bottom and every month going forward will bring higher prices. As a potential buyer, I hope this is not the case, but im being realistic and am open to the possibility.

  29. chicagofinance says:

    Day #1 Christie

    Terminator game on!
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PTF8syW9Kc

  30. House Whine says:

    25 – Yeah, I kind of already know that!
    What I am saying is that foreclosures, at least in my neck of the wood, are more invisible than anything I saw happening in Florida last year when I was down there.

  31. Annie says:

    They hit bottom in 1991. Over the next 7 years, through 1998, they were up 18%.

    I guess all of us who bought during that last bubble missed that 18% increase as many of us sold for what we paid for at the peak, 10 years later, and in many cases sold for much, much less.

    Oh and why do you torture yourself so?

  32. Annie says:

    They hit bottom in 1991. Over the next 7 years, through 1998, they were up 18%.

    I guess all of us who bought during that last bubble missed that 18% increase as many of us sold for what we paid for at the peak, 10 years later, and in many cases sold for much, much less.

    Oh and why do you torture yourself so?

  33. A.West says:

    Shore (160)
    Captiva is/was very nice. Seemed pretty high-end. I went to a few company outings at resorts there before the hurricane, haven’t seen it since then. Lots of beach per capita back then. Lots of golfing. Sanibel I just drove through. Much bigger.
    I’m not a beach person, though, so I can’t rank the place vs other beaches.

    Should be easy to rent a place and see how you like it.

  34. Annie (31)-

    He tortures himself a lot less than some others here.

  35. Veto That - 'The Operation' says:

    Annie, I think you may be missing my point. During the last bubble, you probably didnt buy in 1991 or later, right?
    ‘IF’ this crash is over, then
    1991 = 2010

  36. scribe, The Princess of Paramus says:

    I’ve been noticing an uptick in TV commercials by the NJEA and the teachers union in NY.

    Paterson is about to unveil more cuts, too.

  37. Happy Daze says:

    Jamil,

    Now you have me wondering how much of GDP can be attributed to the legal services component.

    I know one top grad who made junior partner in leading firm in the city a few years ago. Prior to that much of her time was travelling, sitting around (bored) in meetings and producing boilerplate for mergers.

  38. “Oh and why do you torture yourself so?”

    Veto…Did you purchase recently?

  39. renter says:

    24

    I want to send my husband instead…maybe it will put an end to this “let’s buy a house business.”

  40. A.West says:

    Speaking of Florida, I grew up and lived there till 98, and still know some people there. Back in 2006 some of them were trying to recruit me to move back to Central Fl and take over some floundering hedge fund. My former colleague was driving his mistress/secretary around in a leased Mercedes, just bought a McMansion with an interest only mortgage, and took me to dinner at some disgustingly trendy fancy Italian place that had just opened in downtown Orlando, selling overpriced food and wine. He put me in some artsy-fartsy trendy hotel that charged way too much and had some sort of disco /martini bar that people went to be seen. Probably surrounded by cigar bars. On the side he was trying to develop some fly-in luxury horse rider community in Ocala. Another freind’s wife had turned real estate agent. Everything I saw just screamed “unsustainable” and “indebted.” Everyone seemed to be spending more money but doing pretty much the same thing they had been doing the previous decade.

    Thank goodness that I was only listening to their job offers as a courtesey, and already had two better job offers (and had told him so before he flew me down).

    On Disney, I stayed at the Polynesian resort back in 2006, everything seemed nice.

  41. Veto That - 'The Operation' says:

    “Did you purchase recently?”

    Stu, No. I am still renting.

  42. A.West says:

    Whine,
    My guess is that NJ foreclosures get bought, because maybe there really are more people than there are houses for them up in NJ. There wasn’t a huge amount of newbuilding in NJ during the boom, was there? In FL, it sounds like there really was a lot of supply, such that there are more homes than people who can afford to or have a reason to live there.

    I wonder if people are deferring retirement, reducing the number of people willing/able to take up the FL supply.

    If I could do the work I do from Florida, I’d move there in a minute, cost of living much lower, no income tax, low property tax. Regular tennis. I don’t care for the heat in summer though.

  43. Veto That - 'The Operation' says:

    i have something for you guys. I will post it soon.

  44. Shore Guy says:

    “Lawyers who entered the field as recently as a few years ago could reasonably expect a life of comfort, security”

    Those days have been gone for years. Nobody who started in the profession after the mid ’70s, could expect comfort and security. The past 15 years has accelerated the shift from what the profession was to what it is but any large firm, anyway, has been ratcheting-up the demands for a long time.

  45. Alap says:

    For the RE agents on this blog, what are your thoughts on this new rebate system? Like/Dislike? Pros/Cons to it? What do you think will be the long-term effects as a result of this passing?

  46. Veto That - 'The Operation' says:

    Here you go, This is an analysis that ive been working on.

    i think this will help put some forecasts into perspective.

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/25427082

  47. Shore Guy says:

    A.W.,

    Captevia seems, so far, to be the closest thing to what we have been seeking: lack of typical tourist trade, easy access to beaches for early morning walks, more solitude. Kind of like a U.S. version of the islands off Belieze.

  48. Shore Guy says:

    “For the RE agents on this blog, what are your thoughts on this new rebate system? Like/Dislike? Pros/Cons to it? What do you think will be the long-term effects as a result of this passing?”

    A headline like: Chip runs client through Chipper

  49. yo'me says:

    Foreigners still love buying US debt at a low interest rate.

    http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAMymraIViNk&pos=5

  50. VETO,

    Nice charts. I’m going with DB/Schiller. You gotta throw Otteau out of the mix due to his abundance of bad calls in recent years.

    Even if you want to compare this downturn to 88 to 99, you are leaving out all of the MBS and tax credit stimulus that was not employed in the past decade. You are also leaving out the potential option-arms explosion.

    These three are too powerful to be ignored. All of the stabilization so far has not come in a free market. Remove the stimulus and housing should fall like autos did at the end of cash for clunkers.

  51. Mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    clot Disney where did you lodge.
    Stayed at the Yacht Club nov 05 found everything including service fine. On the other hand went to the Polynesian for there grill dinner thing looked run down nothing like where I was staying. A West you were happy with it in 06?

  52. Veto That - 'The Operation' says:

    Stu, cool. Id like to see that. You make good points with the existance of mbs and option arms this time around.
    For the record. my forecast is closest to JPM but ive had a tough couple of days digesting that new comp which sold for almost 2006 prices in my neighborhood. It was very discouraging and its making me think that Otteau may have a small chance of being right.
    And then after realizing that Otteau was just retracing the 1991 recovery, only with a lower low, i actually gave his prediction more merit.
    Truth be told, i’m open to the possibility that each scenario has about a 20% chance of playing out.

  53. Shore Guy says:

    Why I want to be close to the water, but not ON the beach:

    http://www.panoramio.com/photo/14690136

  54. alap (46)-

    I will leave the business before I give away a penny of income as an inducement for a buyer to work with me.

    The only way to survive long-term in RE is listing, anyway.

  55. Mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Veto depends where you are looking. I will probably get the worse case up in northern Sussex. We are almost there on some, others still listing at peak. But what is selling is priced low, 30% off peak I’d say. By next fall I may see them where I am comfortable buying.

  56. Mike (52)-

    Disney All-Star Resort. Never billed as top-of-the-line, but it’s really shabby and in need of having the 1992 look updated.

  57. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    17. Ive talked to alot of people from Ohio as well. They have some real horror stories from the Coal mining areas in the south. No money for textbooks, whole towns practically empty. They come to NJ and say “wow NJ is great!” Makes you think if its great here how bad is it there.

  58. Painhrtz says:

    teachers union comment upthread the whole won’t somebody think of the children BS is starting already with the nuke option budget proposals. I wish the teachers would just call it what it is “won’t somebody think of our golden parachutes” I know a lot of teachers and the majority of comments coming out of there mouths are as follows: I’ll get tenure then they can never fire me, retire at 55. Job security and 3 months off a year blah blah blah. Very few of them do i know got in it for the betterment of the children.

    I expect with all the rhetoric coming out of the porcine one’s mouth with the teacher’s union the fireworks will be spectacular.

    Let’s hope his balls are as big as his gut, but I suspect he’ll fail just as every other politician before him

  59. John says:

    grand floridian and beach and yacht are best, after that the rest are a little long in tooth. if picking a value on stay on monorail, busses suck.

  60. PGC says:

    We got a deal on Disney Dolphin arriving Christmas day. Very Nice and would highly recommend. The best part is the transport. Kids loved the boat to Hollywood studios and then onto the bus and Monorail to Magic Kingdom.

  61. Veto,

    Here’s a good chart idea. Why don’t you put interest rates side by side with the infamous CS chart. Then try to determine how many basis points the treasury MBS purchasing is lowering current interest rates. I know everyone here likes to discuss the $6,500-$8,000 tax credit, but at the end of the day, it’s the monthly nut that determines affordability.

  62. Alap says:

    56 – Clot, Is this more for buyers agents? Or will sellers start asking for a bit of the pie as well? They may figure that they can stomach a lower asking price if they are at least getting back a small portion of their loss from their agent, no?

  63. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. "The Goon Squad" says:

    [18] jamil

    “Lawyers who entered the field as recently as a few years ago could reasonably expect a life of comfort, security and social esteem. Many are now faced with a different landscape.”

    I know you snipped that section, but it is incorrect. I recall the massive layoffs in law firms in the early 90’s and how it affected the profession (I was just entering law school and a lot of folks thought I was nuts). Then there was a bubble, wrought by the tech boom, and a law firm in Cali called Gunderson that set off the price war for talent. That was about when I entered BIGLAW.

    Anyone who was paying attention knew that the environment was unsustainable and it blew off in the 00’s but not by much. Now the bubble is deflating, and the landscape is changed permanently.

    There’s a reason top firms pay so much—it’s because it sucks to be there. This will occupy the thoughts of the partners as they try to position their firms (and themselves) for the future. In truth, law firms are ethereal, indeed ephermeral, things, and one needs an exit strategy when they go to work for BIGLAW.

    That is what I am working on now, quite furiously as it turns out.

  64. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    Just got done reading “Secrets of the American Empire” written by a former intelligence community economic hitman.

    My conclusion: We are headed to world war.

    Would coincide nicely with trends forecaster Gerald Celente’s prediction of “terror 2010.”

    Would also coincide nicely with Marc Fabers prediction that when countries become insolvent their governments take them to war. “The US will always find someone or make someone up to goto war against.”

    I would watch the Iranian negotiations like a hawk. This is where its likely planned to start and the planners are behind schedule.

  65. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. "The Goon Squad" says:

    [60] pain

    Having sat down with teachers quite a lot recently, I am amused that they seem to all parrot NJEA talking points, emphasizing the value we get as parents.

    If one more teacher refers to a program my child can be involved in, and says “your tax dollars at work”, I’m gonna hurl.

    In politics, when congressman get calls and letters that all say the same thing, it is quite obviously an organized effort, e.g., astroturf. Why doesn’t NJEA get that?

  66. A maximum 1% off fees is really going to get the housing market back on it’s feet.
    In the greater scheme of things it should impact the monthly nut by about $29 or so.

    A 450K house on a 30-year FHA 3.5% down no escrow is $2926 monthly. Add in the 1% concession and you are rocking a $2895 payment. Sounds like a real cowpoke to me.

  67. Mikeinwaiting "Bicep" says:

    Clot All Star, yea you would come away with that experience. John 61 on the money.
    PCG Dolphin & Swan also nice.

  68. Veto That - 'The Operation' says:

    stu –
    thats prbly true.
    also demand can come from multiple sources including low rates, population increases, employment increases, earnings increases, stock market gains, govt tax credits, lower home prices etc.
    It would be difficult to isolate any one of those factors and its effect on the market and if you did do it, it would be subject to the usual statistical dicslaimers and limitations.
    But you are probably onto something for wanting to see that analysis.

    i will say this though. it is my opinion that the govt intervention that we all feel is unfairly manipulating the market for a limited amount of time, should probably instead be considered as part of the market for eternity. and therefore, the market always has been – and always will be -rigged in such a way, that it always goes up, just like the rest of our economy, stock market and inflation, etc.

  69. Painhrtz says:

    Nom it really comes down to: those who can’t teach. I know a few really good ones, unfortunately they are out mouthed by the morons. finding a a dedicated teacher and a good cop is like spotting a bald eagle, a rare sight. you know it when you see it, but more often than not most of the birds in the sky are just crows.

    Personally if they pay teachers on par, give them matching 401K up to 6%, increase there benefits cost a little, you would save a fortune in costs. Instill some accountability for job performance and the wheat will be separated from the chaff.

    It will neve happen though

  70. John says:

    Chifi, when I bought this at 77 a few months ago you rated it a sell, now the damm thing is 104.5, even by my standards that is crazy. What up dude?

    Also how come Ambac is not bankrupt yet? That bad boy gives trudging along.

    316773CH1 FIFTH THIRD BANCORP NT 8.250 03/01/38 7.850(M) 104.500

  71. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    Lets hope these 4 things dont happen:

    In the cast of corporate characters, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are A-list villains, thanks to the central role they played in the 2008 financial meltdown. The two mortgage-finance firms failed as spectacularly as AIG, the poster child for finance-gone-wrong, with the combined Fannie-Freddie rescue totaling about $111 billion so far—the biggest bailout of all. Both firms are effectively nationalized, and the government would probably wind them down except for one thing: They underwrite about three quarters of all the mortgages issued in the United States.

    [See how the government is swallowing the economy.]

    You’ve probably heard that the economy is recovering, that consumers are more optimistic, and that companies might soon begin hiring more workers than they’re firing. Hooray. We’ll all be thrilled when the economy stops quivering. The only problem with an upbeat prognosis is that large chunks of the U.S. economy remain addicted to financial painkillers or dependent upon dysfunctional institutions like Fannie and Freddie, and we’ve never gone through the kind of withdrawal that’s set to take place this year. If all goes well, we’ll avoid messy complications, such as these:
    1. Housing tanks all over again.
    2. Stocks crash
    3. Theres a US debt crisis
    4. Consumers become rational

    http://www.usnews.com/money/blogs/flowchart/2010/01/13/lets-hope-these-4-things-dont-happen

  72. OR…you could do as Captain Cheapo and stay outside the park for next to nothing. Nothing matches the fine dining experiences of the Golden Corral and CiCi’s pizza buffet. Surprisingly, the hotel we stayed at was nice, the suites were well appointed, the pool was nice and the breakfast was free and ok. The downside is the drive to the park and the cost of parking.

    Word to the wise. Buy tickets to cover your expected number of visits in your lifetime. If you don’t, you’ll be paying close to $100 per day. Buy a non-expiring multi-day ticket and you can get the daily cost down to $25 or so if you plan to spend 7 days or so in one of the parks in your lifetime.

  73. A.West says:

    Polynesian is a little dated in design, but our room was decently maintained, and we had a beautiful view of the lake beyond which was the castle, and fireworks. From the Polynesian you can take a boat across to the Magic Kingdom, or the Monorail. We were happy with it, Grand Floridian is newer, but pricier. The number one consideration when going with kids is fun feel and convenient way in/out of the Magic Kingdom and the Polynesian works for that, but next time may stay at Grand Floridian, looking for a larger multi-family suite.

    I once stayed at a hotel served by the Disney bus system, but will never do that again. When the kids are older, and the focus turns more to Epcot than Magic Kingdom, Yacht Club is just a walk away, and seems nice. If going on a budget, may as well stay farther off campus and drive in – driving is better than taking the resort bus system in my opinion.

  74. chicagofinance says:

    JJ (John):

    Need opinion…what do you think of these bichez?

    http://www.state.nj.us/treasury/news/2006/p60912a.html

  75. onthebrink says:

    Long time lurker here- could do with some advice.

    Moved to NJ couple years ago and been renting since. in Ridgewood. 2 kids in elementary school who had to move mid year and changed 3 schools that first year. Now that the kids have been in the school system, they want to continue there and I get that. Unfortunately didnt realize how crazy the property taxes were before we moved here. Realize now that even in ‘Prestigious Bergen’ there are other towns with good schools and lower house prices and taxes for better houses.

    Questions: In terms of resale, would the other towns like Wyckoff, Hohokus, Allendale etc, be harder to sell since they are all ‘inter-changeable’ as compared to Ridgewood? (no convenient freeway access, downtown etc)

    To the parents of 5th and 3rd graders: how important do you think stability is for kids this age? Should we take the hit and buy in Ridgewood? This is their 3rd school in 2 years (for reasons out of our control)and 5th grader is a girl.

    Thanks in advance..

  76. chicagofinance says:

    John says:
    January 19, 2010 at 10:59 am
    Chifi, when I bought this at 77 a few months ago you rated it a sell, now the damm thing is 104.5, even by my standards that is crazy. What up dude?

    JJ: This is a sell on so many levels…..come on give me a break…

    At the end of the day, the value of the regional banks in the short term is going to be OK once the commercial real estate rebounds or they can sufficiently wipe their books clean. In the long run, these TARPed up guys a fcuked. Their value will be asymptotic to zero.

    In the long-run the banks that can synthetic structure securities will disintermediate these pieces of crap. So pile into GS/MS et al…..not so fast…..Washington is going to come up with some pile of populist outrage clusterfcuk….that to will be punched full of holes in time (or on delivery), but you may as well wait for the fear induced selloff….

    So back to your original question a 38? The principal will not be repaid by Fifth Third in the year 2038. It either won’t be, or by someone else.

  77. prtraders2000 says:

    Acquaintance couple. Both were teachers. Mid 30s in JC maxed out salary @ 90k plus each. He just got the vice principle position. Every time the principle gives him a hard time, he says he pretends to be taking notes and just writes his salary One Hundred and Twenty Thousand Dollars. Then all is good.

  78. onthebrink:
    My advice is to let the kids feel like they are part of the decision. Of course they would like to stay, but show them the difference in homes if they get to move. Offer them a home with a pool in cheaper town as an incentive and see how it floats. Ultimately, I would simply do the math and put a price on the cost of stability vs. how important it is to live in a larger house. I’m as cheap as they come, but sometimes disrupting your families life is not worth saving $100 per month or $3 per day. Now if you just can’t afford it, your kids will understand that if you explain it to them. Children, even third-graders understand the concept of trade-offs. As you know, they will make new friends wherever they end up. Unless of course, they are like Jamil.

  79. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. "The Goon Squad" says:

    OT Alert:

    Interesting blog entry from the political reporters of the NYT. To me, it shows nothing but hubris and condescension:

    “What I can’t get over is: Why on earth are you and I in Massachusetts for a special election where a Democrat is struggling to hold onto the seat Edward M. Kennedy had for 46 years!!?!?!?

    J.Z.: No kidding. Usually when we’re in Boston for a political story, we’re just sneaking across the border from New Hampshire for a good dinner. . . .”

  80. freedy says:

    what happens in Haiti now?

  81. what happens in Haiti now?

    Bury the dead, rebuild and wait for the next natural disaster. The third world sucks.

  82. chicagofinance says:

    please note:

    Not an “answer”, but another data point among many…..
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=anDIJIkZOUt4

  83. chicagofinance says:

    Stu aka The Sausage Party says:
    January 19, 2010 at 11:28 am

    what happens in Haiti now?

    Bury the dead, rebuild and wait for the next natural disaster. The third world sucks EXCEPT ALBANIA…

  84. PGC says:

    El Cheappo, $25 will just about cover No Expiry and park hopper. Now that the finger scanners in place, the market for ticket sellers is drying up.

    Look into parking at the hotels. It is only $10 for the day and you can take Disney transport to the parks.

  85. PGC…You are right. I guess they got smart and realized that everyone was gaming them on their tickets. The No Expiry option on a ten day is $20 per day. It was not always that steep. If I recall correctly, it used to be like $5 per day even on the ten day. The park hopper, which costs them nothing, is still pretty cheap at $5 per day.

  86. Mr Hyde says:

    Freedy 82,

    Read an interesting opinion that Haiti is set to become the american Ethiopia. A truly failed state. It made some very interesting points and suggested that perhaps some other nation absorbing it as a protectorate would be the best solution.

    If the state could barely hold itself together before (granted the US intelligence agencies and various drug cartels have had a large hand in that)and it has ended up a denuded waste land compared to the DR side of the island, then what can we expect to happen now?

    Heck, have France take it back. They have the political and military strength to rule the island. Set it up similar to Puerto Rico.

    At this point does a nucleus of leader ship ability even exist on the island that isnt compromised by drug ties, gang ties, or the lack of power to enforce order?

  87. Zack says:

    #77

    Stablity for kids is overrated.
    All kids need is facetime with parents.

    Just like location, location location is the mantra for realestate, Time Time Time is mantra for children.

    Nothing to do with a big backyard or individual rooms.

  88. Veto That - 'The Operation' says:

    US accused of ‘occupying’ Haiti as troops flood in

    France accused the US of “occupying” Haiti on Monday as thousands of American troops flooded into the country to take charge of aid efforts and security.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/centralamericaandthecaribbean/haiti/7020908/US-accused-of-occupying-Haiti-as-troops-flood-in.html

  89. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. "The Goon Squad" says:

    RE: Haiti

    It has already been a basket case, but I don’t see any neocolonialism at work. I don’t think France wants it back. But it could become another Ethiopia on several levels, and that has to have the DR folks concerned.

    I had also surmised that the administration would let haitians into this country on humanitarian grounds. This is happening now.

    The questions now are (a) how many will be permitted to come to the US, and (b) when do they go home? I submit that the answer will be (a) a substantial number (low six figures) and (b) they will be permitted to stay indefinitely.

    I also expect the admin. to try to change the asylum rules so that folks fleeing a natural disaster can apply for asylum here. I don’t know that this will fly as it is politically sensitive, but I expect them to try.

  90. lisoosh says:

    renter says:
    January 19, 2010 at 9:46 am

    “I want to send my husband instead…maybe it will put an end to this “let’s buy a house business.””

    Renter – Sick of my husbands whining about buying a house I started to show him what is on the market.

    He’s starting to realize I wasn’t talking out of my @$$. Every place we see he asks if the owners are on crack. At least he is starting to realize that a little patience might be in order.

  91. John says:

    Cifi, on long bonds I don’t care if my principal gets paid back. on that FITB one I got my entire investment back in 9 years, on a EK 20 year bond I bought at 50 cents with a 9% coupon I get back my entire investment in 5.5 years, assuming a 30-40% RR in BK, I only need around 3-4 years till I am playing with the houses money.

    I think people get too scared to go long. I saw Ford bonds of 2097 sitting for the taking with 30% interest not that long ago. Who cares if it does not mature for almost 90 years. A 10k bond trading at 30 cents with a 8% coupon you got all your money back in 4 years, and then 86 years of interest income.

    So back to your original question a 38? The principal will not be repaid by Fifth Third in the year 2038. It either won’t be, or by someone else.

  92. Veto That:

    typical Drudge report material.

    “US accused of ‘occupying’ Haiti as troops flood in ”

    French military dude in control tower at Port-au-prince airport was just pissed that the American air traffic controller was letting US military planes arriving have priority over one French plane evacuating. Typical Drudge BS that Jamil lists as news everyday. Just like Obama is not even a US citizen. Moron.

  93. cobbler says:

    Shore:
    Sanibel has the most abundance and variety of seashells on the beach I’ve ever seen. Wonderful place to go to with the little ones for a week ot two. Living there – dunno, the place is small and I guess fairly empty of anything off-season.

  94. John says:

    If the french want Hatti give it to them.

  95. Sean says:

    Haiti was so bad that the sweatshops for Nike, Disney and others pulled out of there a long time ago. Somewhere around 75% of the population was unemployed before the earthquake.

  96. yo'me says:

    Wealthy set to splurge on Swiss watches in 2010

    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60I2R520100119

  97. lisoosh says:

    Disney – we stayed at a moderate – Coronnado. $104 a night, brand new renovated rooms and the only moderate with queen sized beds. The location is good and the buses ran every 5 minutes and were never full, no complaints there.

    Next time we will probably stay off property – you can get a 2 bedroom/2 bath suite for the same price 5 minutes from the parks. Food is better value and probably better quality outside too. We definitely found the accommodations cramped for 4 and when the kids are older it would only be more so.

  98. Veto That - 'The Operation' says:

    stu, yep – you got me.
    i rely on that site to ruin my thought process on a daily basis.
    But the crazy part is that i come here for ‘moderation’

  99. lisoosh says:

    Course if I was a millionaire I would stay in one of the fancy suites in the fancy resorts a monorail ride from the parks, with VIP tours and all that.

    But I’m not, so I won’t.

  100. Knarf says:

    I’ve attached an old Sam Kinnison bit as a metaphor for the economic relativism inherent in the post referenced below.

    CAUTION: Strong Language

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vh1W38E3X8s

    Let’s help kickoff this move to the Promised Land (NJ) “by driving U-Hauls into the desert.”

    “Noissecer eht s’erehw?

    [Responding to: Al “The Thermostat” Gore says:
    January 19, 2010 at 10:39 am

    17. Ive talked to alot of people from Ohio as well. They have some real horror stories from the Coal mining areas in the south. No money for textbooks, whole towns practically empty. They come to NJ and say “wow NJ is great!” Makes you think if its great here how bad is it there.]

  101. freedy says:

    haiti many already here ,, in NJ.

    we have great welfare /s8 housing/
    wonderful towns that welcome with open arms

  102. chicagofinance says:

    JJ: To answer your original question as in “WTF big boy” to me?

    John says:
    January 19, 2010 at 12:03 pm
    Cifi, on long bonds I don’t care if my principal gets paid back.

    So back to your original question a 38? The principal will not be repaid by Fifth Third in the year 2038. It either won’t be, or by someone else.

    WSJ
    JANUARY 19, 2010
    Yield Junkies Return to Bond Market
    Risk Takes a Back Seat as Demand for High-Yield Credit Sets a Record; Forgetting 2008 Happened

    By PETER LATTMAN And MIKE SPECTOR

    In the high-yield credit markets, it is time to party like it’s 2006.

    Companies left for dead a year ago are now finding that investors are clamoring for their high-yield debt. Private equity-backed businesses are paying their owners dividends out of new bond issues. In all, companies raised $11.7 billion last week in the high-yield bond market, the biggest in history, according to Thomson Reuters.

    The previous record: $11.4 billion, set at the apex of the mid-decade credit boom in November 2006.

    The latest demand seems all the more remarkable coming just over a year after the greatest financial panic in generations. The panic and a bleak economy helped pushed 11% of high-yield issuers into default in 2009, according to Standard & Poors.

    Such sobering figures appear to be overlooked by investors. “It looks like risk is on the backburner again as investors are reaching for yield,” said Adam Cohen, co-founder of Covenant Review, an independent credit research firm. “And issuers are all too happy to oblige in meeting the insatiable demand.”

    For most issuers, the new debt isn’t going toward building new factories or funding big acquisitions. Instead, these new deals are improving the companies’ balance sheets by repaying existing debt and pushing back maturities. These overleveraged companies hope they can get more time to improve operations and benefit from an economic recovery.

    In March 2009, Hexion Specialty Chemicals Inc. said it planned to cut about 15% of its work force after posting a $921 million loss. That came after Standard & Poor’s lowered its ratings on the Apollo Global Management LP-owned company, citing a risk that it would violate the covenant on its credit facilities.

    On Thursday it sold $1 billion in high-yield bonds paying investors 9% interest. Investor demand was so large the company raised $300 million more than it had targeted.

    Energy Future Holdings Corp., the Texas utility acquired by private-equity firms Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. and TPG in 2007, sold $500 million of bonds earlier this month. The move followed a disappointing debt exchange in November in which the company sought to reduce its $44 billion debt load. The company has struggled amid the recession and a sharp drop in natural gas prices.

    Some Wall Street deal makers say the current high-yield bonanza only delays the day of reckoning. With more than $1 trillion of corporate debt maturing prior to 2015, the recent new debt deals are “the ultimate Hail Mary passes,” said Barry Ridings, the vice chairman of U.S. investment banking at Lazard Freres & Co.

    While these high-yield bond deals can give companies breathing room, they also saddle them with increased interest payments. But companies are happy to use the proceeds to pay off less expensive senior bank loans. The bonds lack the restrictive covenants of loans, which often require minimum liquidity levels, restrictions on spending and other operational metrics.

    Investors are eager for such new debt, in part because of economic policies emanating from Washington. With the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates near zero, yields on government debt have stayed low, forcing investors searching for decent returns to chase riskier paper like junk bonds.

    “They’re all yield junkies,” said Mr. Ridings of Lazard. “Did everyone forget that 2008 happened? Talk about a short-term memory loss on the part of the buyer.”

    Indeed, at a time when small businesses and consumers are hard-pressed to get banks to turn on their lending spigots, some new bond issues are from companies for whom a capital raise a year ago would have been unthinkable. Last January, HeidelbergCement AG was struggling under a roughly $17 billion debt load and a worsening outlook for the construction industry. What is more, the company’s owner, German billionaire Adolf Merckle, died in an apparent suicide as problems mounted in his business holdings.

    Last Tuesday, HeidelbergCement successfully issued $2 billion in bonds, 40% more money than it expected to raise.

    Some deals feature boom-era characteristics, such as private-equity firms issuing debt to take cash out of the companies they bought. Sorenson Communications last week placed a $735 million debt offering that will back a $180 million payout to its owners, Madison Dearborn Capital Partners and GTCR Golder Rauner LLC. This follow a number of these similar so-called dividend recapitalization deals in December.

    The demand continues to drive gains in the trading markets in junk bonds and leveraged loans, which remain strong on the heels of record returns last year. After a 31.5% drop in 2008, high-yield and low-rated corporate bonds returned 57.5% in 2009, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch index. Leveraged loans returned 51.6% last year, according to an S&P/LSTA index. In the first two weeks of 2010, those indexes are up more than 2% and 1.9%, respectively.

    The average gap between yields on high-yield bonds and U.S. Treasury bonds stands at about 6 percentage points, after starting the year at 6.4 percentage points. At the height of the credit bubble in early 2007, the spread had narrowed to under three percentage points. By December 2008, at the peak of the financial crisis, that so-called risk premium stood at about 22 percentage points, creating big returns for distressed investors.

    For instance, Oaktree Capital Management, a firm that specializes in distressed debt, had a banner 2009. The Los Angeles-based firm managed $67.4 billion as of the end of September, up from $49 billion at the beginning of the year. Roughly 85% of Oaktree increase in assets has come from performance gains in its funds, many of which trade in high-yield bonds.

    After such a rally, return expectations in the high-yield market for 2010 are more modest.

    Oaktree Chairman Howard Marks said that, unlike the last several months, investing in the high-yield bond market now requires a discerning eye.

    “A year ago everyone thought the world was ending, few people would invest at any price, and that brought the bargains of a lifetime,” he said. “Today the market isn’t overpriced or underpriced, so success lies in buying t

  103. Anon E. Moose says:

    56.The Condition-Code Red says:
    January 19, 2010 at 10:33 am
    alap (46)-

    I will leave the business before I give away a penny of income as an inducement for a buyer to work with me.

    The only way to survive long-term in RE is listing, anyway.

    Buyers are getting cheated out of their own money (“You don’t pay me anything… only the buyer pays a fee… I work for you – ha ha ha”) and the ‘prohibition’ in the law was just a fig leaf bought and paid for by the guild courtesy of a compliant state legislature (“I’d love to give you some of your money back but the law just won’t let me.”) Speaking of which I presume that NJ Realt–ores are truly hurting if they couldn’t muster the lobbying bucks to stop this. You don’t have to do anything. Redfin will take care of it.

    As an asside, I hadn’t seen where the rebate was capped at 1% (Stu [64]). If so, I fully expect a legal attack on this law from the guild — with a great PR twist. They will say that the cap of 1% is price fixing and discriminates AGAINST buyers by preventing them from offering more. Therefore, the argument will go, the law must be struck down to protect the consuming public. No word on re-passing a substitute lacking the 1% cap – naturally.

    And as I see it listing always was the way to get rich in used house sales. You buy an MLS listing (kickback to the guild) and let someone else sell it for you. Ever try to get a listing agent to show their own property?

    I’d prefer to see every honest person like yourself leave that line of work – that way the rare anecdote won’t give credence to those who dispute the moral character of the industry.

  104. Veto that:

    Drudge is responsible for 9 out of my 10 Snopes searches. For whatever reason, my parents email me every piece of political poppy cock produced by these tea party numb-nuts, but they are afraid to even use their credit card online. It drives me up a wall. Even worse, I get the same attrocious anti-Pelosi krap from the father-in law as well as they are too stupid to look at the names in the CC list. I swear, half of the bandwidth of the Internet is probably wasted by old farts emailing the same propaganda back and forth to each other!

  105. Veto that:

    Drudge is responsible for 9 out of my 10 Snopes searches. For whatever reason, my parents email me every piece of political poppy c0ck produced by these tea party numb-nuts, but they are afraid to even use their credit card online. It drives me up a wall. Even worse, I get the same attrocious anti-Pelosi krap from the father-in law as well as they are too stupid to look at the names in the CC list. I swear, half of the bandwidth of the Internet is probably wasted by old farts emailing the same propaganda back and forth to each other!

  106. John says:

    Ci-fi I am a yield junkie, but difference is I loaded up back in the day. Other than some Zions, MI, and GMAC odd lots I am on sidelines, I did buy Affinion and Mercer bonds last week. Affinion had an 11+ plus coupon and parent Apolo LLP is planing IPO soon and can’t afford a blow-up right now. Plus they have a profitable niche credit card related business and I actually spoke to mgt before buying. A rarity for me. Other thing I am doing is small odd-lots 1-9K of bonds I already own that are trading at a discount I always buy. I can resale it easily.

    Like that article states it is too painfull to sit on sidelines right now due to 0% money mkts. People like me who bought stuff at 16% ytm one year ago that are now 4% and subject to LTCGs want to sell but need to re-roll.

    Chifi, the problem most advisors have right now is people want to buy high yield fixed income, an advisor who correctly advises clients not to buy will lose them. Plus good high yields deal pop up and disappear quickly, impossible to snatch if you are unsure. The average investor getting in now will get hosed.

  107. I don’t think there is a 1% cap, but I just don’t see realtors giving away much more than that.

  108. Shore Guy says:

    “Read an interesting opinion that Haiti is set to become the american Ethiopia. A truly failed state.”

    Become a failed stte? Become?

  109. freedy says:

    chris better hurry or NJ will be a failed state

  110. freedy says:

    johnny boy left chris a hand written letter.
    wonder if it was Karla’s private #’s .

  111. Veto That - 'The Operation' says:

    “I get the same attrocious anti-Pe losi krap from the father-in law”

    People who get all up in arms emotional about party line politics are not only missing the boat but they usually have some sort of mis-directed emotional scars that are buried deep in their subconsconscious. Either that or severe chemical inbalance.

  112. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. "The Goon Squad" says:

    [107] stu

    My old man constantly emails me NSFW jokes. Keep asking him to stop but it falls on seemingly deaf ears.

    He did send mea pretty funny one though: A photoshopped picture of Tiger and OJ in a golf clubhouse, and OJ is saying to Tiger “You want me to do WHAT?”

  113. Veto That - 'The Operation' says:

    113 continued

    …but they can usually spell much better than me…
    “subconsconscious”

  114. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. "The Goon Squad" says:

    [113] veto

    Can’t be severe chemical imbalance. I’ve taken lots of chemicals.

    So far, heavy turnout expected in Mass. senate race. Snow in eastern areas. Both factors that favor Brown.

    Boy, what a shock that will be if he pulls it off. Especially since the machine vote in Mass. isn’t what it used to be ever since Billy Bulger left the Senate.

  115. John says:

    Chase disney card gives you good price breaks, also if you know a chase employee since they sponsor disney card they give employee discounts. Also, Disney raises prices at set times, usually begining of year so when it gets near one of upcoming price raises buy your tikets ahead of time if you are going in next year. Finally, florida residents sometimes get good deals so have grandma drive her 73 dart over to buy some with her florida liscence.

  116. PGC says:

    There is only one place to eat in Disneyland. Not cheap but worth it.

    http://www.disneylandclub33.com/Celines%20Photo%20Gallery.htm

  117. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. "The Goon Squad" says:

    First outrage of the day in Mass.

    (this should get Jamil fired up)

    http://michaelgraham.com/archives/why-is-isabel-melendez-handing-out-absentee-ballots-in-lawrence-today/

    BTW, Isabel Melendez is a reasonably well known dem operative in Lawrence. Surprised she is tagged to this as she is truly partisan but still mainstream, at least for Lawrence.

  118. Veto That - 'The Operation' says:

    Here is my personal analysis and forecast for nj home prices using a long term growth rate.

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/25436598/NJ-RE-Analysis-Veto-That-Forecast-Jan-2010

  119. Nom,

    Does it really matter? Does it really matter if health care passes or not? Look at what we are spending on FNM/FRE to ensure that people who cannot afford to own homes get to own homes. The parties are the charade to the looting. Meanwhile, my auto insurance went up 12% this year and my car registration went up 15%.

    But keep on paying attention to Dems/Republicans and health care and guns and abortion and education and social security until your bank account is emptied before your very eyes and the rich somehow manage to keep getting richer.

  120. jamil says:

    95 Stu:
    “French military dude in control tower at Port-au-prince airport was just pissed that the American air traffic controller was letting US military planes arriving have priority over one French plane evacuating. Typical Drudge BS that Jamil lists as news everyday. Just like Obama is not even a US citizen. Moron.”

    I know arguing with people who have no brain activity is waste of time, but anyway.

    This has been news in Europe too. Yes, it was on Drudge – stories on Drudge are different from NY Slimes. Former has stories that are true.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/centralamericaandthecaribbean/haiti/7020908/US-accused-of-occupying-Haiti-as-troops-flood-in.html

    “The French minister in charge of humanitarian relief called on the UN to “clarify” the American role amid claims the military build up was hampering aid efforts.”

  121. jamil says:

    Stu: You forgot medicine today?

  122. John,

    Grandma can only get a discount on tickets for kids. If you are old enough to carry ID, you must produce it. If it doesn’t have a Florida address, you pay full price. We tried.

  123. John says:

    If he worked at GS and made 120K he would be crying, and have a loaded gun and a jug of whiskey in his hands as he was about to commit suicide

    rtraders2000 says:

    January 19, 2010 at 11:16 am
    Acquaintance couple. Both were teachers. Mid 30s in JC maxed out salary @ 90k plus each. He just got the vice principle position. Every time the principle gives him a hard time, he says he pretends to be taking notes and just writes his salary One Hundred and Twenty Thousand Dollars. Then all is good.

  124. jamil says:

    Nom: Boston Globe has already called the elections for Coakley by 50-49. I assume recount has also been conducted by DOJ and Al Franken.

    http://thephoenix.com/BLOGS/blogs/talkingpolitics/Coakley_3.jpg

    Dead people are active today and people who have moved or married recently (and changed name) are registered at least twice in MA. Brown has to win by double-digits in real votes in order to overcome acorn-effect.

  125. Jammin’ Jamil.

    Surprised you’re here. Thought you would be somewhere in Massachusetts in a chearleaders outfit.

  126. John says:

    Then try Chase way. All the employee has to do is to pay for tickets with a Chase check as they get free checking and that identifies them as employees, it is ok for them to do it for friends and family. Everyone knows someone who works at chase. Other trick I did is to find out what conferences are taking place that week and pretending you are part of conference. I bought 1/2 day park tickets that way once which are not notmally sold to general public.

    Stu aka The Sausage Party says:
    January 19, 2010 at 1:34 pm
    John,

    Grandma can only get a discount on tickets for kids. If you are old enough to carry ID, you must produce it. If it doesn’t have a Florida address, you pay full price. We tried.

  127. Jamil,

    You don’t need any meds. You were born with a crack high that never faded.

  128. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    Interesting amount of earthquakes around the world over the past month.

    Sacramento
    Haiti
    Venezuela
    Argentina
    Guatamala
    and today Cayman Islands.

    Regarding Isabel Menedez. I took notes so I know how to do it when we collect recall signatures for her brother Bobby “Green Card” Menendez this year.

    Regarding spending programs. The Fed has purchased 80% of the government debt and a goodly portion of toxic debt from banks, Wall Street, insurance companies and corporate America. American taxpayers will pay that bill. It is obvious foreign dollar holders and central banks are no longer willing to buy bonds from a bankrupt country. Most intelligent Americans are in denial. They know something terrible is going on and they just don’t want to hear about it.

  129. John vs. Stu

    Battle of the network cheapskates.

  130. Shore Guy says:

    “in a chearleaders outfit”

    I thought that was Gary?

  131. Shore Guy says:

    Of course the Fed is buying our debt. Just watch, at some point they will just burn the bonds so they need never be paid. Like magic, the debt goes poof.

  132. Al Gore,

    Did you ever download that open source software that lets you track every recorded tremor on the earth by date recorded. It then plots them on a map and the major fault lines become crystal clear. Pretty cool stuff, but I haven’t looked at it since 1999. I’m sure it’s still out there somewhere.

    Shakecast I think it was called.

  133. freedy says:

    any fault line in NJ? could clean out some of the welfare cheats

  134. John says:

    I went to Grand Floridian in Disney, volunteer to work a conference 1/2 days for free, three nights free in hotel, cabs free one plane ticket free and perdiem. Then got conference rate rest of trip, booked $179 per person roundtrip for family. Used Chase employee discount and bought 1/2 day tickets right before price increase. Then a delayed check in got free upgrade to best room in Grand Floridian and cheapest conference rate.

    Week in Grand Floridian for whole family with food and airfare and park tickets for under $1,000. Plus got points!

    When I do cheap I do cheap. Planing island trip right now where I am using marriott employee rate and airline miles.

  135. leftwing says:

    “Ding, dong the witch is dead”

    Looking good for Brown as 41?

    The only thing better than putting a stake in this misdirected (to be polite) healthcare scheme will be waiting to see if the Dems use the rope to really hang themselves.

    There’s talk of Pelosi ramming the Senate version through the House. Could we actually be that lucky? If that happens, she may well hand over control of the House in November.

    Said it before. It amazes me the Left thinks they blew the ’94 midterms because they failed to pass HillaryCare. They lost the House in ’94 precisely because they tried to jam through a flawed proposal and the hubris of their approach.

    Hubris is wonderful thing, particularly when combined with the ability to ignore history.

    Then, lose control of the House for the first time in 40 years on the back of bad healthcare legislation. Now, lose a safe Democratic seat in the bluest of states for the first time in 49 years in January. Solution? Stand up to press the accelerator even harder to the floor. Priceless.

    You go, girl. Ram that sucker through.

  136. The Ramapo fault line is a pretty well known one in Jersey. Unfortunately, only the Jackson Whites would get crushed. Now where is that Camden fault line that we so urgently need for tax relief :P

  137. John… do you read fatwallet forums too?

  138. House Whine says:

    65-Comrade Nom De Plume:

    Don’t you think it’s kind of sad to be in a profession that you can’t wait to get out of? I realized this myself when I was in the legal field. I kept planning an exit strategy, and I’m not even a lawyer. There were days I enjoyed the work, but the overall feeling I had was that “bad things” were going to happen. I can’t exactly explain that. And then I found myself downsized. I met so many attorneys, mostly the younger ones, who admitted to me that they regretted ever getting into the field. ANd, that was before the field started to tank. Bottom line to me is you shouldn’t go to law school just to make money. I try to tell young people this but they just don’t seem to get it and I know they aren’t listening to me. They have no idea how stressful it will be, if they can even find a job in the field after law school.

  139. chicagofinance says:

    Check out the back page of the NY Post
    http://www.nypost.com/archives/covers/

  140. A.West says:

    Veto That,
    I can’t argue with your forecast, makes as much or more sense as any other, though my fear is that migration out of NJ could make things worse than your forecast. Some of that will depend on what industries stay and or grow in NJ and NYC, which in turn will depend on policy decisions in DC and Trenton.

    I bought my first place in 2001, had the money & desire to buy a bigger house in 2006 but held her back for 3 years citing insane prices. I wasn’t able to hold her back for the optimum price level, but we can handle a further 15% drop. I think we at least held out for a decent deal in the current market. My main solace will be the associated larger short position in the US dollar that my mortgage represents.

    Ten years from now I’ll probably point out that we could have saved an extra $300k had we just stayed put.

  141. Schumpeter says:

    moose (106)-

    You quit your job, then I’ll call you a decent and moral person. Then, I won’t quit doing what I do.

    Take your sanctimony, and shove it up your ass.

  142. Sean says:

    re: #119 – voter fraud nah, Mass Hysteria yes.

  143. NJCoast says:

    After 3 days with the preschool kids at Disney we hired a babysitter and went here. No children under 10 served. Ahhhh.

    http://disneyworld.disney.go.com/resorts/grand-floridian-resort-and-spa/dining/chefs-table-dinner-at-victoria-and-alberts/

  144. Schumpeter says:

    Anybody here feel the need to cough up income to your bosses, customers, prospects, etc?

    It all sounds great…’til they come after you.

  145. danzud aka D-Train says:

    #96. I was in Sanibel yesterday and didn’t think the shells were great (Bowton?). By the way, plenty of for sale signs in Sanibel in case you thought it was “different” there.

  146. RaWDoG says:

    Went to an open house this past sunday in Wyckoff, MLS # 1000604. The list price was 699K (not that I can afford it) on a 4br 2.5 bth, sugar maple split, corner property of a main road. There are 3br upstairs and a 4th downstairs next to the front door (it’s like a playroom or office). My question to the readers: what constitutes a bedroom? I was told that a bedroom needs to have a closet for it to be considered as a bedroom, which this does not.
    Also ran comps on Zillow and found that all recent sales on splits were in the low to mid 5’s.
    Anyone’s input would be appreciated. Thanks

  147. NJCoast says:

    When I do cheap I do cheap. Planing island trip right now where I am using marriott employee rate and airline miles.
    John-

    Please tell me its not Frenchman’s Reef. I don’t think the island can handle you.

  148. Shore Guy says:

    http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2010/01/19/for_coakley_ominous_sign/

    For Coakley, ominous sign
    By Kevin Cullen, Globe Columnist | January 19, 2010

    Blue Hill Avenue runs like a vein through the city.

    It stretches for 4 miles, from River Street in Mattapan to Dudley Street in Roxbury, and a little more than a year ago there was an Obama sign on every block. There were Obama signs in Mattapan barber shops, in the windows of the apartment buildings opposite Franklin Field and Franklin Park, in the restaurants of Grove Hall, in the bodegas near Jermaine Goffigan Park.

    Fourteen months ago, there was a buzz on Blue Hill Ave. and the streets that run off it like caterpillar legs. This is the heart of the biggest minority community in the state, and the energy generated by the prospect of Barack Obama becoming president was palpable.

    Yesterday, I drove the length of Blue Hill Ave. and counted exactly two Martha Coakley signs. One of them was on a fence next to the Roxbury Energy Gas station, on the corner of Moreland Street. The sign wasn’t properly fastened. It flapped in the wind, revealing a “Mike Flaherty for Mayor’’ sign underneath.

    If Martha Coakley loses today, it won’t be because she didn’t put up enough signs on Blue Hill Ave. It’ll be because she failed to convince enough of the people who put up the Obama signs on Blue Hill Ave. and a lot of other avenues across Massachusetts that Obama’s ability to get anything done depends on her winning the election.

    Besides the sign flapping at the gas station, the only other Martha Coakley sign on Blue Hill Ave. was in the window of Mattapan Family Laundry. Edgar Martinez was behind the counter and he said he knows absolutely nothing about Martha Coakley.

    Edgar Martinez is 22 years old, and 14 months ago he voted in his first and so far only election, and he cast his ballot for Obama. “I remember then, when Obama was running, that was all we talked about, my friends, my family. We were excited,’’ he said. “I haven’t heard anybody I know talking about this election.

    snip

  149. Schumpeter says:

    Maybe all these dolts who voted for O now realize he’s just Lloyd and Jamie’s boy.

  150. leftwing says:

    Nom/House re: law

    Best thing I never did was become a lawyer. Odd, because I knew I wanted to be one since at least HS, my parents wanted it for me, prestige, earnings, etc, etc.

    Came out of undergrad, liberal arts with a governement and economics double major, aced the LSATs, had law school apps in, and got deferred by one of the schools I really wanted. Suggestion was to take two years off to get some real work expereince, preferably not in the legal field.

    Picked NY because that’s where all my friends were headed, IB because it paid the best right out of school. Zero more thought to it than that. I viewed it as a two holding pattern until I could realize my dream.

    Stroke of luck because over those two years I witnessed the difference between the theory and study of law (which is what I determined I really liked) and the practice of law (which is like a sausage factory).

    The defining moment for me was during the meltdown of the LBO boom in the late 80s. We were in the middle of an offering and the market was closing and being attacked on several fronts. I had a senior partner at Shearman and Sterling on the phone for at least 45 minutes walking me through fraudulent conveyance. Mind you, I was a second year analyst and 24.

    Hung up the phone and realized later that I had zero desire to spend three years killing myself and seven more years of sacrifice to have a one in 100 chance of landing where this guy did to end up talking to some snot-nosed clueless 24 year old and tracking the conversation in six minute intervals. Never looked back.

    If I could do it all over again I would have tried for U of Chicago law school and remained in academia.

    Life, funny thing.

  151. Schumpeter says:

    GWB in blackface…

  152. John says:

    Hey I was considering that as one of my places, I heard very mixed reviews of the Frenchman reef, is it any good?

    NJCoast says:
    January 19, 2010 at 2:22 pm
    When I do cheap I do cheap. Planing island trip right now where I am using marriott employee rate and airline miles.
    John-

    Please tell me its not Frenchman’s Reef. I don’t think the island can handle you.

  153. John says:

    snookie was out on LI this weekend doing a $5 dollar tanning promo.

  154. Veto That - 'The Operation' says:

    “my fear is that migration out of NJ could make things worse than your forecast.”

    thanks A West, and yep, thats prob true. I’ll admit there are prob alot of scenarios that can distort my mickey mouse forecast. The tax credit being another example. Also, if unemployment keeps climbing again, or stock market tanks, etc etc.

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/25436598/NJ-RE-Analysis-Veto-That-Forecast-Jan-2010

    Bye the way, do you think out-migration will get really bad here?

  155. House Whine says:

    153- I enjoyed reading your thumbnail bio.
    But you got me at the end- so you would have gone to law school so you could teach others how to be something you didn’t want to be? You are right- academia, in the end is a better deal than being a lawyer any day. I know very few unhappy professors and I know very many unhappy attorneys. Ah, the roads not taken.

  156. NJCoast says:

    John-
    Re: Frenchman’s Reef. To me it’s located on the sh1tty part of the island. The resort itself is nice if you’re the kind that never leaves the compound. It’s close to town and shopping and has a not so great beach. East end of the island is much nicer, or better yet skip St. Thomas and take the ferry right over to St. John.

  157. Mr Hyde says:

    Veto

    From the material i have researched on the housing boom in the mid 1920’s, there is no significant difference between then and now. People disbelieved a return to historical trends was possible given its dire implications, yet return to norms we did.

    Those norms do shift over time, but over very long time periods or during major upheavals. We are potentially in the midst of a major upheaval that could trigger such a change. However, The only way prices stay as high as they are in NJ and throughout the nation, is if we see substantial wage inflation.

    We are set to see substantial inflation develop over the next few years due to the US’s massive debt load, but the question is will that be transmitted into wages? I think TPTB will do their best to avoid that. In which case the market forces would appear to be in the direction of substantial price drops.

  158. There is also an interesting town council meeting tonight where the 3.5 million senior center purchase is going to be discussed as well as the state of the town’s debt.

    Should make for some entertaining television at least. We spent $200,000 last year so we could broadcast these meetings live for the three people at home who actually watch this drama.

    Personally, I find it much more entertaining than watching 100 networks discuss who is better, Conan or the chinny one.

  159. John says:

    Where do you recommend I stay in VI. Also looking into all inclusive kid friendly carribean beach vacations that are nice with no third world countries, Cancun, DR, Mexico etc. Also non-stop flight out of NY as kids drive you nuts when you transfer planes.

  160. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    Marlets going up like it’s 2007. I still cannot believe the markets keep going up but then I realize that it’s the 0% interest rate and the gubbmint allowing all-out fraud in the financial sector.

  161. “skip St. Thomas and take the ferry right over to St. John.”

    John, I heard there are some great deals into Port-Au-Prince. You could even get the airfare for free if you work the system.

  162. Shore Guy says:

    “gubbmint allowing all-out fraud in the financial sector”

    Market stabilization support activities, not fraud. Get your lingo down.

  163. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    John (163):

    Stay at the Frenchman’s Reef Marriott. Close to the airport.

    If you want to go to the Westin on St. John’s it will cost you a ride to the other side of the island and a boat trip to reach the hotel.

  164. Annie says:

    #161 The only way prices stay as high as they are in NJ and throughout the nation, is if we see substantial wage inflation.

    You have tried to tell him that before, yet he continues to ignore it. And yet it is the key;growth in wages equals growth in house prices. Of course minus all the govt manipulation we have seen to date.

  165. Schumpeter says:

    hype (164)-

    It’s all going to seem like one big party, until one day Lloyd & Jamie pull the plug & everybody’s eyeballs start melting.

    One cannot inject heroin ’round the clock day after day and claim to be getting better.

  166. Market stabilization support activities?

    I thought it was better known as quantitative easing.

    How are we expected to keep up?

  167. John says:

    Housing boom has long term effects, there is a little town on Long Island called Island Park, basically a swamp near long beach. Back in 20s a developer filled in swamp and sold plots as vacations homes to lower income NYC residents as their own little piece of heaven, was going to make it like Venice with canels and it had a LIRR stop so you could get there in 45 minutes with out a car. Well the depression came and little was built and people defaulted, over time little tiny crappy bungalows went up on the tiny plots, plots were as small as 50 by 50 and even today 50 by 100 is considered a huge lot. Town has a topless bar, electric plant, wrecking yards, morturay, nightclubs and all types of stuff no other town would zone in and houses are like 300K at most. The effects of a RE boom gone bad in the 1920s in Island park still stick out 90 years later. Our children will look at McMansions in Levitown one day and go WTF were they thinking back in 2006!

    r Hyde says:
    January 19, 2010 at 2:42 pm
    Veto

    From the material i have researched on the housing boom in the mid 1920’s, there is no significant difference between then and now. People disbelieved a return to historical trends was possible given its dire implications, yet return to norms we did.

  168. Shore Guy says:

    “kids drive you nuts when you transfer planes.”

    Naw. We just send them on a flight behind us (grandma drops them off) and let the airlines deal with the hassles of an unaccompanied minor. We land, get the rental car check in, get showered, head back and voila.

  169. Schumpeter says:

    We are fcuked. The only open question now is how much longer we go until things go completely black.

  170. Sean says:

    re: #152 – Shump he is no FDR, that is for sure. Our ProtoFacist Pres may only have one term.

    State of the Union address is going to be an interesting one, no more blaming GWB this time.

    Also a loss in Massachusetts will be a wake up call, look for a major house cleaning at the White House. Summers, Geithner and maybe Emanual. If Obama replaces banksters with banksters, the Dems will lose both house and Senate in the fall and then endless filibusters to gum up any more of their agenda.

  171. John says:

    House of cards
    Forester believes that the next housing decline will start in the second quarter of the year. He said several factors, including expiring government support programs and falling demand, will lead to the drop.

    One of the causes will be the government’s Home Affordable Modification Program, which allowed trial modifications of loans that would keep homes out of foreclosure. But, said Forester, very few of the modifications have been made permanent — about 7% according to latest figures — and that means there’ll be many homes facing foreclosure this year.

    Forester also pointed out that existing home sales fell 16% in November — a worrying sign that may suggest programs like the First Time Homebuyer credit have run out of gas. December’s existing sales numbers will be released on Jan. 25.

    He highlighted another factor that could mean trouble in the housing the market — the Federal Reserve’s plan to end its programs of buying mortgage-backed securities and debt from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The programs are set to end by April 1, and Forester thinks it could mean mortgage rates rise by roughly 0.75%-1%.

    “And if rates are at 6%, it becomes harder to buy a home or refinance a mortgage,” he said — further depressing the housing market.

    The real problem with this scenario, said Forester, is the impact it will have on banks.

    “Banks are still valuing homes too highly on their balance sheets so they are vulnerable to a downturn in home prices again,” he wrote in a quarterly update earlier this month, and this vulnerability could set off a similar downward spiral in the financial markets that was seen in late 2008.

  172. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    Clot (172):

    You are so right. That is the only thing that I really worry about right now. It’s probably going to be the US debt that gets us but that may take a few years.

    Gotta get my gun permit soon. Mrs Hype said we get the house first and then I can get the ol’ Springfield 45 caliber.

  173. Schumpeter says:

    I wish somebody would lock them all into the chamber during the State of the Union and set off a chemical weapon.

  174. A.West says:

    Veto,
    I wouldn’t stay here in NJ much longer than my job requires me to. With NJ among the most business-unfriendly states in the nation, why shouldn’t it see a net job and correlated population outflow? Unless our new governor kicks major butt and starts nuking the state power structure, clearing the way for new growth.

    The only thing that NJ really excells at is producing overpaid “civil servants” including state-run-education-workers (can’t blame them the state created a virtual monopoly via “free” i.e. tax-extorted education and is thus the major employer). Unless income per capita rises in the productive sector due to unspecified means, I don’t know how civil servants can squeeze much more blood out of that stone.

    My few acquaintances in the pharma industry don’t appear optimistic about NJ job growth, it’s hard to imagine financial services job growth in NJ, the large consumer and industrial companies HQd in NJ seem to be here more out of inertia than current conscious intention. Whatever the next growth industries will be in the US, I doubt that they would pick NJ to locate, and that’s all it takes to get migration outflows.

    Having said all this, I’m still expecting to close on a bigger exposure to NJ real estate, mostly because my company is unlikely to move out in less than 3 years.

  175. jamil says:

    Note: If you cheat, wait until the voting is over before you publish the “results”.

    http://www.bostonherald.com/news/politics/view/20100119globe_jumps_the_gun_in_online_map_goof/srvc=home&position=recent

    “Not so fast.

    In a premature Dewey beats Truman moment, boston.com today posted an online map of Massachusetts voting results declaring Attorney General Martha Coakley the winner of today’s special U.S. Senate election.”

  176. NJCoast says:

    If I didn’t have family to stay with on St. Thomas I’d be here:
    http://soggydollar.com/sandcastlehotel/

  177. DL says:

    Stayed at the Grand Floridian. Clean rooms and convenient to all the attractions. Not much to distinguish it from a run of the mill Marriot. Reminded me of Las Vegas when we stayed at the Mirage. The room amenities are only basic because they don’t want you to spend much time in the room.

    Have relatives on Sanibel. A cousin has been trying to sell his house for over a year because he can’t afford the 17k in taxes. Then his son-in-law lost his construction business and he and woife and three kids, two dogs had to move in with the in-laws because they lost their house. Grand-dad had to go back to work at age 70. Really sad. Meanwhile our friends in Tampa saw the house next to theirs go for half of what they paid for theirs in 2006. Anyone who thinks a stock market rally and gov’t printing presses are going to make everything better is dreaming.

  178. Does anyone really care who wins in Mass?

    It’s all the same!!!

  179. Mr Hyde says:

    NJ coats 179,

    stayed there before. Its rocks!

    mmmm pain killers

  180. leftwing says:

    House

    Maybe I’m just idealizing the road not taken.

    Biggest drawback for me of IB and corporate law is all the incredibly bright people running around doing incredibly mundane and repetitve things.

    Would have hoped for at least some intellectual stimulation.

  181. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. "The Goon Squad" says:

    [151] shore guy

    In Mass., Blue Hill Avenue runs through the section of Boston that most closely resembles Camden.

    It is known as the “Murder Mile.”

  182. NJCoast says:

    For the ultimate El Cheapo island vacation. Been there done that.

    http://www.ivanscampground.com/

  183. Sean says:

    re: #182 – Stu yes meet the new boss same as the old boss but that is besides the point. The Republicans are doing everything they can to insure Obama has a failed Presidency, just take a look at the voting record for 2009.

  184. Sean..it’s how it always is. And the retarded Dems are so worried about how they appear that they signed a ton of the turds that W floated past them.

    It used to bother me that the majority of people in this country are politically apathetic. In retrospect, I think the sheeple majority are in the right. Why even bother paying attention?

  185. Schumpeter says:

    Sean (187)-

    None of this matters. Both parties have set themselves on a collision course with oblivion. The political and financial systems of this country are so far gone, only a cataclysmic, purging type of event will allow for an eventual tap on the “reset” button.

    I figure we’ve got equal chances of world war, civil war, complete economic collapse or all three wrapped into one.

  186. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. "The Goon Squad" says:

    [158] hose, left

    Enjoy the work, hate my partners. At my current and prior firm, I have had the distinct pleasure of working with folks that are off their meds and would toss their mothers under the bus to make a buck.

    It has occured to me that in my last two firm jobs, I filled positions that no one else wanted. Easy to see why after you get there.

    It is my fervent goal to be either government-employed or self-employed in the true sense, but never got sufficient training in those areas that individuals and small biz people would flock to me for, or that gov. needed in any great numbers (and not here in NJ). Trying to train up but without enough time left, I fear.

    That said, I had always maintained that if we had two kids, someone is staying home. We now have two kids and both of us are in high paying prof. jobs. Since the wife’s prospects are better, I am, in a small way, actually looking forward to what may come down the pike if business doesn’t pick up. Then I can do those things I have been jawing about.

  187. Schumpeter says:

    When my local township’s council is working just like a mini-US Congress, that’s a good sign things are just too screwed up to fix in any conventional manner.

    When you see systemic failure at such a low, local level, it is symptomatic of the sorry fact that almost no adult in the US knows any better than to behave like the political equivalent of a chimp.

  188. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    135. Maybe we could build a fake fault line around Camden and watch is plunge into the Pennsylvania state line.

  189. Schumpeter says:

    Finally, somebody sees it my way:

    “Relative to oil, silver could surge 4x from here and it still wouldn’t match the prior high in this relationship over three decades ago. Considering the problems that plague every major currency in the world, from the U.S. dollar, to the Yen, to the Euro, to sterling, and knowing from the McKinsey report that the need to monetize the surge in public debt will be required to cushion the economic blow from what will likely be another 5-6 years of deleveraging in the private sector, and given the much more stable supply outlook for silver (all the low-cost shallow mines on the planet have already been gutted) and where it trades relative to gold, not to mention what little attention the metals grabs and how under-owned it still appears to be, exposure to silver, whether it be in bars, coins, ETFs or mining companies, is likely going to be prove to be a very attractive investment in coming years.” – David Rosenberg

  190. chicagofinance says:

    Would you be willing to look into E&Y? I have a contact…..beep if interested…

    Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. “The Goon Squad” says:
    January 19, 2010 at 3:23 pm
    It is my fervent goal to be either government-employed or self-employed in the true sense, but never got sufficient training in those areas that individuals and small biz people would flock to me for, or that gov. needed in any great numbers (and not here in NJ).

  191. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    157. Where they going to go besides Pennsylvania? Hopefully we can export some of the resident Communists in the state and my lifelong dream of Monmouth and Ocean County secession will become reality under the 30th amendment which reads… F#ck the losers, let them rot in their filth.

  192. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    176. lmao. I would reserve the gallery and a gas mask for that one.

  193. chicagofinance says:

    leftwing says:
    January 19, 2010 at 2:29 pm
    If I could do it all over again I would have tried for U of Chicago law school and remained in academia.

    left: the most un-fcuking-believable lawyer that I know from UofC Law. She routinely appears on Nancy Grace….she is nice and hilarious. On TV she probably comes across as just another loud mouthed wacko, but she is sharp, sharp, sharp….she is nothing like this in real life….it is so funny to see her do this…
    http://jezebel.com/291319/nancy-grace-and-sue-moss-are-gods-gift-to-basic-cable

  194. leftwing says:

    Sean, re: heads rolling if Brown wins

    Menendez, for sure, as Chair of the DSCC. His job is getting Dems elected in the Senate and this is dropping an easy pop fly with two out in the ninth and a runner on third.

    Emanuel, distinct possibly. It’s great having an attack dog to terrorize anyone looking to mess with your house. Until he bites a family member.

    Summers, Geithner don’t see it. They’re peripheral to that election.

  195. Happy Daze says:

    189 Schumpeter

    Is this what you’re expecting?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3ZOKDmorj0

  196. Painhrtz says:

    Hype get a .40 cal the wife will be able to handle it when your in dubai again. 45 has too much forward weight for a small lady!

    What’s a snookie?

  197. leftwing says:

    ‘distinct possibility’ even.

    Emanuel getting the boot would require the administration doing a mea culpa on healthcare. Don’t think he’s there yet, still in “I’m right, the electorate is wrong” mode.

  198. Schumpeter says:

    chi (197)-

    “routinely appears on Nancy Grace” and “sharp, sharp, sharp” are mutually exclusive concepts.

  199. Schumpeter says:

    Venn Diagram of concepts in #203:

    O O

  200. Schumpeter says:

    daze (200)-

    Sorry, no Flash on this computer.

  201. Mr Hyde says:

    Pain 201, Hype

    If you are looking at a glock, might want to opt for the 9mm. The .40 has lower long term reliability then the 9mm and the 357sig which both have excellent reliability.

    The glock .40 isnt a bad choice, but the 9mm glock or the .40 Sig might be better options thought. The springfield XD series could be an option as well

  202. House Whine says:

    190-Nom De Plume:
    And good luck to you. Sounds like you have the support of your wife, so that’s always good. I always say, you have got to have a plan. Now I say you have got to have Plan A, Plan B, etc.

  203. Painhrtz says:

    Hyde noticed 40 ammo is still a bit more prevalent than the 9mm though last time I was picking up rounds. It isn’t being burned up in two wars. Doesn’t matter I’m not a big fan of hand guns. 20 gauge youth model 1100 with a 20 inch barrel,loaded with buckshot is a much better close quarters option

  204. Veto That - 'The Operation' says:

    “The only way prices stay as high as they are in NJ and throughout the nation, is if we see substantial wage inflation.”

    Hyde, this is not totally true. There are many ways to keep price high. I agree that wage inflation is one of them. But only one of them. There are many more.

  205. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. "The Goon Squad" says:

    [207] house

    Not sure how supportive she would be, esp. if I cut into her spending habit because we did not have the 2nd income.

    One thought is to approach my mgt. and suggest working part time. Figure it is a win-win since they save coin and I can dump some of my expensive child care—since I pay for it with after-tax dollars, the savings would be huge.

    In fact, losing my job would mean saving a boatload of after-tax money that would go to child care expenses. The after-tax salary needed just to pay for child care and attendant expenses would likely have put me in the top half of earners nationally.

  206. Schumpeter says:

    plume (210)-

    Raising your kids vs. working for a bunch of bastards seems to be a no-brainer choice.

  207. Schumpeter says:

    Besides, if the crew of ganiffs at your office can’t shoot, hunt, fish or do anything of real use, they’ll be vaporized in the collapse of society, anyway

  208. freedy says:

    well here we go. Seminars being held in various cities in the US, including, you guessed it, Newark for the Haiti ‘s to get on the bandwagon. how stupid are we ? pretty
    flucking stupid

  209. chicagofinance says:

    Schumpeter says:
    January 19, 2010 at 4:01 pm

    chi (197)-

    “routinely appears on Nancy Grace” and “sharp, sharp, sharp” are mutually exclusive concepts.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADCsOr8r8jg

  210. Veto That - 'The Operation' says:

    “growth in wages equals growth in house prices”

    Annie, Let me ask you a very easy question, a meat ball if you will.

    If you are correct in saying that ‘Growth in Wages = Growth in Home Prices’, then how the heck did the price to median income relationship become so out of wack in the last 15 years??

    Your assenine statement makes it seem like they move in tandem. But i know that cant be right. In fact, it must be completely 180 degrees from being correct.

    But i’m a nice person so i’ll let you fix it, rather than jump down your throat like you’ve done to me twice today.

  211. relo says:

    Nom,

    When my sis & BIL moved to FL it was ostensibly so she could stay home w/ kids. Lasted 6 mos., she got a better job than him and he stayed home. Everyone was happy. Now kids are in school FT and he’s back at work. He took a lot of crap (some unrelated and deserved) but most were envious of their situation.

  212. yikes says:

    clot, good to have you back. saw you were in disney. what hotel? got some peeps down there. could have hooked you up.

    if there’s another soccer thing, drop me an email (very, very solid connection)

  213. relo says:

    13: True dat.

    Also, the lack of attention being paid to silver generally, is another reason I’m thinking it’s an interesting play.

  214. John says:

    HMMMMM lets say I pay for my daughter’s wedding 100%, but say it is a kind of dowry as the new husband just signed on to support her and then the husband turns around and says I am going to sit home and eat bom boms all day while I pimp out my wife and send her back to work, I be plenty mad, at least I would sue him to get back the wedding money and you know come thanksgiving I am sending his butt into the kitchen with the rest of the ladies while the daughter joins us men watching football. Watch some madmen epsodies and grow a set of balls.

  215. freedy says:

    bank of America to release 500 homes per month of the 6000 they own just in Las vegas

    think this will hurt home prices? or do we need to build more.

  216. Essex says:

    My prediction: Fattie cuts the state’s budget and makes headlines….meanwhile our taxes are reduced by something like $300 a year. WHOA!!!

  217. chicagofinance says:

    The end is nigh……

    Gooden, Strawberry headed for Mets Hall of Fame
    The Mets today announced that Dwight Gooden and Darryl Strawberry, along with Davey Johnson and Frank Cashen, will be inducted into the team’s Hall of Fame. They are the first inductees since Tommie Agee in 2002 as the Mets try to make a renewed effort to embrace their history. “It was very important to re-establish the Mets Hall of Fame Committee,” said Mets COO Jeff Wilpon, who serves as Ex-Officio for the Selection Committee. “The committee made great choices and all four inductees played a vital role in our success during the 1980s. Each individual was a unanimous recommendation and on behalf of myself and the rest of ownership I was pleased to approve them.” Gooden, Strawberry, Johnson and Cashen made their mark on the Mets in the 1980s and were key contributors for the 1986 World Championship team. The ceremony will be held at Citi Field on Sunday, Aug. 1 prior to the Mets game with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The plaques of all the inductees will be one of the main attractions at the new Mets Hall of Fame and Museum, which will open this season. The 21 previous Hall of Fame members in order of the year they were inducted are: Joan Payson (1981); Casey Stengel (1981); Gil Hodges (1982); George M. Weiss (1982); William A. Shea (1983); Johnny Murphy (1983); Ralph Kiner (1984); Bob Murphy (1984); Lindsey Nelson (1984); Bud Harrelson (1986); Rusty Staub (1986); Tom Seaver (1988); Jerry Koosman (1989); Ed Kranepool (1990); Cleon Jones (1991); Jerry Grote (1992); Tug McGraw (1993); Mookie Wilson (1996); Keith Hernandez (1997); Gary Carter (2001); and Tommie Agee (2002). From the Mets

    * PRINT
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    * rss RSS

    1:40 PM, January 19, 2010 ι POST STAFF REPORT

    The Mets today announced that Dwight Gooden and Darryl Strawberry, along with Davey Johnson and Frank Cashen, will be inducted into the team’s Hall of Fame.

    They are the first inductees since Tommie Agee in 2002 as the Mets try to make a renewed effort to embrace their history.

    “It was very important to re-establish the Mets Hall of Fame Committee,” said Mets COO Jeff Wilpon, who serves as Ex-Officio for the Selection Committee. “The committee made great choices and all four inductees played a vital role in our success during the 1980s. Each individual was a unanimous recommendation and on behalf of myself and the rest of ownership I was pleased to approve them.”

    Gooden, Strawberry, Johnson and Cashen made their mark on the Mets in the 1980s and were key contributors for the 1986 World Championship team. The ceremony will be held at Citi Field on Sunday, Aug. 1 prior to the Mets game with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

  218. leftwing says:

    Giants PSL

    Do it or not?

    Totally up in the air.

    Pros:
    Great seats down low in the family forever

    Right next to the $10k PSL section, so I feel at $5k per seat and a lower ticket price I can get a return even if I don’t use them

    All but the Club PSLs sold out.

    Might as well ‘invest’ in the PSL rather than let the cash hang around earning zip.

    Cons:
    Haven’t had the time to go to many games recently and don’t see that changing

    It’s real cash and I’m doubtful there will be a resale market since there always seems to be a lot of seats available for purchase for individual games

    Thoughts?

  219. relo says:

    Shore,

    RE: Sanibel/Captiva, what do you want to know?

    When we lived in SWFL, we would spend quite a bit of time on Sanibel & Captiva. Both were pretty banged-up by hurricanes in the mid-2000’s, recollection is that Captiva bore the worst of it. Super laid-back, mostly older $$. SWFL tends to get more of a Midwest migration pattern. As you say, Captiva is less prone to tourists. Lots of access to smaller out-of-the-way islands.

    Night and day, but ever been to Amelia Island? NEFL, by J’ville if you’re unfamiliar. Has more of a change of seasons.

    My sis’s in-laws are moving to Sanibel, he to lead a flock of some denomination or other.

  220. Veto That - 'The Operation' says:

    “Bank of America to release 500 homes per month of the 6000 they own just in Las vegas.”

    Freedy, good news. i think this will push prices lower. I wish they would do this in nj.

  221. danzud aka D-Train says:

    Will Strawberry and Gooden throw out the first pitches or snort the first and third base lines?

  222. relo says:

    236: Just a matter of time.

  223. relo says:

    or 226

  224. danzud aka D-Train says:

    #224 Jets no but Giants yes.

    Or Put them up on Craigslist for $8-$10k each and see how you do

    or Offer it to me :)

  225. relo says:

    Nom,

    216: ps – His boss initially was also insane.

  226. Veto That - 'The Operation' says:

    “Just a matter of time.”

    Relo,
    Thats one thing i dont have an unlimited supply of.
    I need a price correction NOW.
    And a big one.

  227. Shore Guy says:

    relo,

    It would be an occasional-use place so I am not really looking for change od seasons. For that, when we finally bug out of the Northeast, we will likely do coasal NC.

    We are looking to be away from typical tourists. We love the feel of the islands in Belieze, also love Grenada and Dominica. These are our favorite places in the Caribbean. We have given serious thought to buying on one of them but, when it comes down to it, I want to be in a place under the US or UK constitutions.

    It struck me that Captiva, especially North Captevia (need to boat in, or fly in, but only owners allowed to land), matches our personalities better than just about anything I have seen so far. We are, get up early in the morning and walk the beach and get off before 8:30 or 9:00 people. We like solitude and enpty beaches. We dont go for lying on one during the day. We dont like tourist shopping districts, tourist crowds, trendy night spots, yadda, yadda.

    Sitting on a porch swing, while working, works for us. I am not a laid back person, but I like laid back people, if that makes any sense. When we get away for a few days, I want to have most of the world melt away, and not face hords of obnoxious people trying to grab the best tee-shirt deal.

  228. Shore Guy says:

    John,

    Watch out:

    http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/news/la-et-bree-condon19-2010jan19,0,6968780.story

    For would-be sugar daddies perusing SeekingMillionaire .com — “the meeting place for wealthy and beautiful singles” — there was much to like about profile #160127. “Bree” identified herself as a 23-year-old model from Newport Beach, and the accompanying photos showed an emerald-eyed beauty with a mane of silky brown hair and a wraparound smile that seemed both sexy and sweet.

    “Just looking for Mr. Right,” her brief self-description read. If the pictures — one in a backless dress at a party, another in a clingy halter top — seemed somehow familiar, a quick Internet search offered an explanation: Bree Condon, 23, of Newport Beach was a successful model and aspiring actress who’d done a Guess jeans campaign and posed for Maxim magazine’s swimsuit issue.

    The profile beckoned on the site for nearly two years, and some who responded soon believed they had embarked on a romantic relationship with Condon. There were no face-to-face dates, but there were intimate phone conversations, nude photos and the enticing possibility of a future with a gorgeous cover girl.

    None of it was true, a fact that came to light last month when police officers, prodded by a private investigator hired by the real Condon, knocked on the door of a budget motel room in Austin, Texas. Inside, according to police, they found an iPhone that had been a gift from one suitor, a small dog paid for by another and a 24-year-old man with a very high-pitched voice.

    Authorities say the man, Justin Brown, had been impersonating Condon online and on the telephone for years. A grand jury indicted him last week on a felony theft charge. He’s accused of duping a wealthy Miami Beach doctor out of about $15,000 the doctor believed he was sending to Condon. Los Angeles police also are investigating.

    Condon’s experience highlights a particular hazard of the Internet Age for those who enjoy minor celebrity. The demi-fame allowed by the limitless expanse of cyberspace appears to have made Condon the perfect target.

    Men could verify that she was a working model and keep track of her photo shoots and acting gigs online, but she wasn’t so famous that tabloids might write about who she was actually dating.

    The Internet also enabled Brown to gather enough biographical information about Condon to pass as her, those involved in the case said.

    “We think there are a lot of other [duped] guys out there. How many, I don’t know,” Austin police Det. Carl Satterlee said.

    “He [Brown] had this whole persona created,” said John Carbona, a private investor and inventor from Fort Myers, Fla., who encountered Brown posing as Condon on another social media site. Carbona said Brown used real details about Condon’s family — including her parents’ occupations and the number of siblings she has — in an attempt to shake him down for money. “You have to hand it to this kid. He stayed in character for two years.”

    snip

  229. relo says:

    232: Mine is a cautionary tale. Learn from others’ mistakes.

    Opportunity is more easily made up than losses. Money flows from the impatient to the patient. Repeat as necessary.

    I’ve got a million of ’em.

  230. Shore Guy says:

    relo,

    Tell me everything bad you can think of about Captiva and North Captiva. That would be a big help. You can e-mail it if you like.

  231. freedy says:

    wonder how many homes the banks own in NJ?

  232. relo says:

    233: Shore, you won’t find an Orlando-type tourist population on either island but they are both quite congested “in-season” (not as familiar w/ North Captiva). While very laid-back, at the same time they are known for an ecclectic and artsy population and more culture than you would expect in relation to their size and density.

  233. chi (214)-

    Not to say I wouldn’t want her on my side in a dire matrimonial event…

  234. yikes (218)-

    Thanks for the offer. Whole club (3 teams) stayed at All-Star Music. Kinda dated & spartan, but it was fine, since we were at the site watching & playing all the time.

  235. chi (223)-

    Impressive. Almost as impressive as their induction into the Cocaine Hall of Fame.

  236. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. "The Goon Squad" says:

    [211, 216] clot, relo

    Maybe, but it means an end to employment as I know it. FBOW, a SAHD is still looked at by most men and women as a freak.

    After I graduated with my tax law degree, I was unemployed for about 6 months. When I took my daughter to preschool, or to the playground on a weekday, the SAHMs looked at me as though I were a child m0lester. And the men weren’t much better unless they were other dads.

  237. plume (242)-

    None of that stuff will matter at all, because pretty soon you’ll be considered “rich” if you own two pairs of pants and don’t eat weeds and gruel five days out of seven.

  238. relo says:

    242: You seem to be a pretty resourceful guy. You’ll make the right decision, for you.

    While never a SAHD, my former employment allowed for very flexible hours and remote as long as responsibiites were taken care of. The only looks I paid attention to were the ones on my kids’ faces.

  239. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. "The Goon Squad" says:

    More on my Haiti prediction:

    MIAMI — America has a message for the millions of Haitians left homeless and destitute by last week’s earthquake: Do not try to come to the United States.

    Every day, a United States Air Force cargo plane specially equipped with radio transmitters flies for five hours over the devastated country, broadcasting news and a recorded message from Raymond Joseph, Haiti’s ambassador in Washington.

    “Listen, don’t rush on boats to leave the country,” Mr. Joseph says in Creole, according to a transcript released by the Pentagon. “If you do that, we’ll all have even worse problems. Because, I’ll be honest with you: If you think you will reach the U.S. and all the doors will be wide open to you, that’s not at all the case. And they will intercept you right on the water and send you back home where you came from.”

    Homeland Security and Defense Department officials say they are taking a hard line to avert a mass exodus from the island that could lead to deaths at sea or a refugee crisis in South Florida. Haiti’s capital, Port-au-Prince, is about 700 miles from Miami. . . ”

    Note that this doesn’t change my prediction. In fact, it was itself predictable. The Obama Admin. knows that if it throws open the doors to haitians, after NOT throwing open the doors to other countries, they will get slammed. The optics would be awful.

    So why the heavy handedness? Cover. When the humanitarian situation worsens (and it will), the administration will “rethink” its hard line stance for humanitarian reasons.

  240. chicagofinance says:

    The Condition-Code Red says:
    January 19, 2010 at 6:05 pm
    plume (242)- None of that stuff will matter at all, because pretty soon you’ll be considered “rich” if you own two pairs of pants and don’t eat weeds and gruel five days out of seven.

    clot: What the hell happened to the David Bouley empire? Danube is gone and Bouley is now Bouley Bakery Cafe which was on the north side of Duane.

    Don’t get me wrong, I don’t like French and the whatever-haute German as it is way too rich for me…but still, these were big time restaurants….

  241. chicagofinance says:

    I see Bouley moved to 163 Duane and Danube became Secession, which in turn closed..hmmm

  242. chicagofinance says:

    I guess Bouley sacked Danube and he fcuked up the set-up of Secession so it tanked….he sounds distracted….
    http://events.nytimes.com/2008/12/17/dining/reviews/17rest.html

  243. chicagofinance says:

    Great…opening Japanese, so I will continue to ignore him….but the Cafe has a bitchin’ quad-shot espresso…
    http://newyork.grubstreet.com/2009/05/secession_shutters_bouley_wont.html

  244. chi (246)-

    David Bouley was a guy whose cooking was cutting-edge…25 years ago. He has consistently proven he cannot manage staff or money and has a nasty string of personal enemies and financial losses to show as proof. Cruising on ancient Verge recipes in what must be an awful high-end dining market in NYC just isn’t gonna get it done.

    What is probably also now common knowledge is that he also has no regard for his customers, something that has been consistent since the first day he opened in the original space on Duane St, where a three-course lunch could take 2+ hours to serve. Had he not hired Shelton to get his kitchen together after the initial disaster of a 2-star NYT review, he would’ve been dismissed to the hinterlands.

    It’s a sign of Bouley’s character that once Shelton got him the four stars, he was pretty much given the sack.

    Bouley is the one restaurant on the planet I wish I’d eaten at a lot less than I have. The only good meals I ever had there were when he was nowhere near the kitchen.

  245. Looking back, I think I even liked Barry Wine more than Bouley.

    And Barry Wine is one nasty dude.

  246. Man, am I glad I’m out of the NYC food biz.

    Every once in a while, I still have nightmares about some of the people I worked with back in the day.

  247. grim says:

    in what must be an awful high-end dining market in NYC just isn’t gonna get it done.

    No recession at Per Se last Saturday.

    …Did I just channel Frank?

  248. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    On November 21, 1933, President Franklin Roosevelt stated, “The real truth of the matter is, as you and I know, that a financial element in the large centers has owned the government of the United States since the days of Andrew Jackson.”

  249. t c m says:

    #77 on the brink:

    “To the parents of 5th and 3rd graders: how important do you think stability is for kids this age? Should we take the hit and buy in Ridgewood? This is their 3rd school in 2 years (for reasons out of our control)and 5th grader is a girl.”

    on the brink, if you’re still reading – I moved my 3 kids to 4 different schools in 2 years – kindergartener, 1st grader, and 4th grader . It was fine. I didn’t even feel too guilty about it. I had an option to avoid the last move with a slight inconvenience, but decided to move anyway. It actually turned out better – the kids loved the last school!

    Then when the kids were older, we had to move again. This time the oldest was out of high school, so it was no problem for him, and the youngest was just starting high school – the middle (girl)had to switch high schools in Soph. year. They were upset and that made me feel guilty, but we moved to NJ so what could I do? Ultimately, it worked out just fine. It took a little adjustment, but my kids made lots of friends, and really adjusted fine. It’s hard to say if they would have been happier staying in Boston, but what’s the difference – they turned out happy here.

    I’m not saying that it’s better to uproot your kids, but I do think there are some positives. My kids have learned to cope in new situations, with new people pretty well. They’ve adjusted well socially.

    I guess a stable family is what really matters when you come down to it.

    Hope this helps.

  250. PGC says:

    #217 Chi

    DD have a pack of gift certificates. $20 for 20 “free” medium coffee that is usally $1.89. My certs expire in June and I suspect they will pull the program at that point to try and push people like me to reloadable cards.

    The certificate packs are on sale at all locations.

  251. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. "The Goon Squad" says:

    Polls closed in Mass. 18 minutes ago.

    Keeping fingers crossed.

  252. frank says:

    #7,
    Freddie Mac is a more honorable than the RE agents of NJ.

  253. PGC says:

    #77 onthebrink

    I seem to be a voice of one here that says that Ridgewood seems to be an Outlier in the crash. Properties are selling, there is only about 5 months on inventory at anytime and while I haven’t been able to run the numbers, prices are holding.

    I would say buy there if you like it, can deal with the neighborhood. If you are alreaay in the school system, you know what your neighbors will be like.

    I also know a good realtor in that town … :*)

  254. frank says:

    #245,
    “America has a message for the millions of Haitians left homeless and destitute by last week’s earthquake: Do not try to come to the United States.”

    Let them all in, we need people to occupy those empty homes in FL. Omama will give them welfare payments.

  255. ruggles says:

    257 – nom, had coakley shown you her pubes like brown did, you’d be rooting for her.

  256. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    lefty 153

    I got knocked up the day after the LSAT.

    wanted to mix md/jd never happened. just as well though, really.

    man plans, god laughs.

    sl

  257. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    Nom, 257

    Fu*cking everything crossed…

    please.please.please.please.please.please.please.please.please.please.please.please.fu*ckpel0si.please.please.please.please.please

    sl

  258. RaWDoG says:

    Went to an open house this past sunday in Wyckoff, MLS # 1000604. The list price was 699K (not that I can afford it) on a 4br 2.5 bth, sugar maple split, corner property of a main road. There are 3br upstairs and a 4th downstairs next to the front door (it’s like a playroom or office). My question to the readers: what constitutes a bedroom? I was told that a bedroom needs to have a closet for it to be considered as a bedroom, which this does not.
    Also ran comps on Zillow and found that all recent sales on splits were in the low to mid 5’s.
    Anyone’s input would be appreciated. Thanks

  259. ruggles says:

    149- rawdog, its my understanding that whatever was in the state/municipal building/fire codes defining a bedroom when it was built/remodeled is what determines whether you can call it one. 200 year old houses do not need closets, minimum ceiling heights, etc. in their bedrooms. if builders in your town were allowed to build bedrooms in the 60s without closets (or there was no definition), then it could probably be a bedroom.

  260. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. "The Goon Squad" says:

    [261] ruggles

    “nom, had coakley shown you her pubes like brown did, you’d be rooting for her.”

    I think not.

    So far, Coakley taking the limousine liberal suburbs and poverty pockets, and of course, the Berkeley wannabes of Cambridge, Somerville, Northampton (Amherst and So. Hadley aren’t reporting, but will be in the Berkeley wannabe column).

    Boston and the Forest Lawn vote yet to fully come in.

    My prediction: Enough support appears in absentee ballots and dem machine strongholds to push Coakley over the top. The Dems simply won’t let this seat fall and will pull whatever they can out of their back pockets. To lose this seat is unthinkable to them. Watch for fireworks.

  261. grim says:

    Obama – Aspirations of Roosevelt and Kennedy, reality of Carter.

  262. Pat says:

    Who’s tombstone is more likely to egged:

    Carters or GW’s?

  263. grim says:

    Let’s not get crazy here, Carter actually did something.

  264. Pat says:

    you know, I’ve always seriously respected Carter.

    And no matter how many times I read “Omama” I’ve got respect for the first one to walk down an undiscovered path with death lurking.

  265. Pat says:

    Tosh, good to see you rear your ugly head.

  266. yikes says:

    onthebrink says:
    January 19, 2010 at 11:13 am

    To the parents of 5th and 3rd graders: how important do you think stability is for kids this age? Should we take the hit and buy in Ridgewood? This is their 3rd school in 2 years (for reasons out of our control)and 5th grader is a girl.

    as a guy without kids who lived in the same district from 1st grade through HS, i can’t imagine having to move that much and make new friends everywhere. i know people make it sound like moving all the time is cake, and im sure making friends at that age is easy … but why not just keep renting in Ridgewood?

  267. grim says:

    That remark wasn’t intended to be disparaging, only an observation of similarities.

    Both presidents should have listened to Paul Volcker earlier.

    Both faced declining approval ratings through their terms, largely due to inherited economic conditions outside of their control.

    Both bailed out automakers, don’t forget about the Chrysler in ’79.

    Both pushed for energy independence during periods of high energy costs, but were largely ineffective in enacting any real change. Carter did install solar cells on the White House.

    Both faced defining geopolitical issues in the middle east (Iran and Afghanistan)

    I won’t cite the Nobel.

  268. Pat says:

    Yikes, kids thrive, if parents are present and accountable. We moved as she was turning 7 and she’s so much more flexible now at 8.

    Still misses her “best friends back home,” but just told me she’s thinking it might be nice to move again. It was fun. She’s got the bug.

    I love moving. It’s the only acceptable excitement left in my 40’s.

  269. Pat says:

    Disclaimer: I’ve always dreamed of an Airstream.

  270. Shore Guy says:

    http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2010/senate_race/

    53 to 46 in favor of the side of right and justice so far with 69% of districts reporting

  271. Shore Guy says:

    http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2010/senate_race/

    53 to 46 in favor of the side of right and justice so far with 69% of districts reporting

  272. grim says:

    From CNN:

    Brown, a Massachusetts state senator, had 53 percent of the vote to 46 percent for state Attorney General Martha Coakley, the Democratic contender, with 69 percent of precincts reporting in results from the National Election Pool, a consortium of media organizations including CNN.

  273. grim says:

    AP calling it for Brown

  274. sas says:

    “Brown, a Massachusetts state senator”

    looks like Obamacare is dead.

    sorry charlie, it always was dead, and that was the diversion plan the whole time.

    Now, while you were debating Omamacare, ask yourself, what really got passed and what was done while you were not looking.

    Increase military budget, increase troops, more bailouts via conduit AIG, run away inflation, and staranglehold dollar.

    SAS

  275. Shore Guy says:

    Glob calling it for Brown with 79% of the districts reporting

  276. Shore Guy says:

    The Globe is too

  277. yikes says:

    Schumpeter says:
    January 19, 2010 at 4:31 pm

    Besides, if the crew of ganiffs at your office can’t shoot, hunt, fish or do anything of real use, they’ll be vaporized in the collapse of society, anyway

    i need to take the wife to the range soon. still looking for a place to shoot the new Remington 870

  278. sas says:

    “Let’s not get crazy here, Carter actually did something”

    yes, he helped start al qaeda (via mujahideen).

    but, he looked good as the “jeans president”

    SAS

  279. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    Does this mean Armageddon isnt going to happen? Or is this a false flag to sucker us into complacency.

  280. sas says:

    “Or is this a false flag to sucker us into complacency.”

    bingo.

    now, go back to your foosball and chicken fingers.

    SAS

  281. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    286.

    –> Grabs the Doritos and heads to the couch with a grape soda. Guess I can turn the tv on again.

  282. gary says:

    It’s a referendum on politcs and DC in general. The little guy is struggling and Washington continues to step on and over them like they never existed. But let’s be honest; this administration consists of some of the most smug, arrogant and narcissistic group of ivory tower charlatans I’ve ever seen.

  283. Pat says:

    SAS, you have to update your commentary for 2010:

    Grab your Udupi Madras Mix, your cheap Aussie wine, and head to the couch you got on Craigslist for a rousing game of Wii Sports Resort.

  284. sas says:

    “Wii Sports Resort”

    whats that?

    SAS

  285. sas says:

    “SAS, you have to update your commentary for 2010:”

    the message stay the same cause nothings changed.

    SAS

  286. Shore Guy says:

    WBUR coverage of the election:

    http://www.wbur.org/media-player?title=Live Stream

  287. grim says:

    Like bag fees for the airlines:

    Pequannock raising pet license fees

    Residents registering dogs or cats will be charged progressively increased license fees over the next three years.

    The fee had remained steady at $8 until 2009, when it was increased to $10 for a neutered animal and $13 for a non-neutered. The fee will now rise $3 annually and will level off in 2013, when it will cost $22 to license a neutered dog or cat, and $25 for a non-neutered animal.

  288. grim says:

    Any NJ town that hasn’t yet enacted fee-based overnight parking permits better jump on board.

  289. grim (273)-

    Both anti-Semites.

  290. yikes (283)-

    Try your backyard. It’ll keep the neighbors on their toes.

    “…still looking for a place to shoot the new Remington 870”

  291. sas (284)-

    Carter lusted after women in his heart. Took a guy like Clinton to come along and do something about it.

  292. It’ll be fun watching Pelosi try to jam the Senate healthcare deal down the House’s throat in the next two weeks.

    I’d say that after two weeks of her warm-twisting, even the five friends she has left in the House will hate her guts.

  293. Surprised Brown didn’t claim “this one’s for Mary Jo” in his victory speech.

    Ironic that Teddy’s death also lead to his legacy getting shanked.

  294. 299-

    Warm-twisting? Hows about arm-twisting…

  295. onthebrink says:

    #77

    Thanks everyone who posted their opinions.

    yikes: We could keep renting in Ridgewood, just tired of dealing with the old POS with the leaking bathroom and drafty windows. Seems like the rentals are always way worse than whats on the market to buy.

    I think the reason we’re undecided this time round as opposed to when we moved to NJ is we dont HAVE to move out of Ridgewood. We can afford to buy here, would just save more if we moved to a place with a lower prop tax. 5th grader has had a little more trouble than the 3rd grader making friends- Like some one else on the board said, seems like the cliques start earlier and earlier..

    Stu- thanks for the suggestion- we are involving the kids in the house hunt, but will sit down to do the comparison with them too- hopefully once they see the difference in the homes, they will buy in!

  296. Shore Guy says:

    So, Obama sweeps into office on a wave of anti-Bushism and people assert tht he is a poitical jaugernaut and begins to overreach and misstep. Then he puts himself on the line in VA Gov race and the Republican wins; then he puts himself on the line for Corzine, and the Republicn wins; then he goes to Mass and the Republican wins.

    Some jaugernaut

  297. sas says:

    “Obama”

    he was just a fad… they tend to wear off.
    Omama was so yesterday.

    I love horse races. Makes me forget about real issues.

    SAs

  298. brink (302)-

    Better you spend some time teaching that 5th grader how to skin small game. Everybody’s “network of friends” is gonna shrink greatly when the former societal guarantee of three hots and a cot gets replaced by the philosophy of eat what you kill.

  299. sas says:

    “Obama”

    he was just a fad… they tend to wear off.
    Omama was so yesterday.

    I love horse races. Makes me forget about real issues.

    SAs

  300. If you want to friend me on Facebook, promise you won’t come gunning for my food & water when TSHTF.

  301. Pat says:

    How about we create a new section on Facebook for enemies we don’t distrust as much as others.

    I’ll post pics of my guns if you show me the inside of your tea kettle so as I can judge your water quality for myself.

    Then we horse trade.

  302. I’d rather have five avowed enemies than five frienemies.

  303. Of course, Rictus-Face and the Racist Mormon can probably just figure out a way to buy off Brown.

    Everyone in the US Congress has his price.

  304. Tevez 2, Man U 1.

    Wheels on the bus continue coming off.

    Night, all.

  305. sas says:

    “Everyone in the US Congress has his price.”

    he who pays the piper calls the tune

    SAS

  306. Shore Guy says:

    BBC calling Coakley “Croakly”

  307. Shore Guy says:

    With B.O. stinking in his ability to move legislation and get candidates elected, I suspect we will rapidly see Dems in the house (especially those who won in districts that went to McCain) who will start putting distsnce between themselves and B.O.

    Tht sound is the air going out of the Obama administrtion. I’m melting, melting; oh, what a world, what a world.

  308. njescapee says:

    in the end they are but 2 sides of the same coin. no change we can believe in

  309. chicagofinance says:

    302.onthebrink says:
    January 19, 2010 at 10:37 pm
    seems like the cliques start earlier and earlier..

    Cliques? OMG…Focus on being a good parent…the rest will take care of itself….

    My opinion of Ridgewood? a big wasteland of idiocy. As many of you know, my wife taught at Orchard 4th grade. Job was great, the students OK, the parents were, for the most part, a bunch a vacuous idiots who were most focused on inculcating their kids with a “step on everyone to get what you want” attitude and those who didn’t buy-in were losers.

    Again many of you know the famous quote when my wife sent an 8 year old child to the principal “I don’t have to listen to her, she doesn’t have tenure.”

    The crushing blow is my brother’s ex-father-in-law. He is a retired superintendent of schools there. A big phony and snob. Always taking about being on the correct side of Route 4, how certain houses in town were originally servant’s quarters, and of course how NINA (no irish need apply) used to appear in help wanted ads.

    Anyway, I always felt bad for my brother because he sought approval from his father-in-law and never got it, BUT the guy always thought the world of me. Fast forward ten years….fcuking guy comes out of the closet (changes my sense of why he liked me), divorces his wife, moves in with some guy and moves out to Santa Fe…..

    The entire town needs to be levelled……

  310. relo says:

    Shore,

    Random thoughts, which may be construed as positive or negative based on your perspective.

    Sanibel is more of a “community” vs. Captiva, though both are predominantly seasonal residences. Very little in the way of families.

    The only real negative is not about the area per se, but the surrounding area. Ft. Myers/Cape Coral is an epicenter of this whole collapse, as you well know. The islands’ proximity to these areas as it relates to crime is mitigated by the fact that there’s only one way on/off the islands.

    It is truly a hassle to go anywhere off island during season. Only slightly less so (by car anyway) on the island.

    Prices have come down significantly, so millage rates have gone up. Non-homestead properties have and will continue to see a disproportionate increase as a result.

    Sidewalks are rolled-up shortly at the conclusion of the early-bird specials.

    News-press.com, if you’re not familiar, can provide some historical insight.

    SWFIA has decent coverage for a relatively small airport.

    If you have specific questions, feel free to get my e-mail. Good luck.

  311. relo says:

    I suspect you can find a contingent of douchebags in many BC towns, but I share your opinion of Ridgewood.

  312. Shore Guy says:

    “Non-homestead”

    What is this? I suspect it is me, lol

    The issue of Lee County millage rates going up is a good one to consider. e want nothing to do with the Ft. Myers mainland for a variety of reasons, and have considered keeping a small boat (25 or so foot cabin cruiser at a marina on the mainland and using that to get onto the island and we would likely use the place to veg out and less for using as a base for exploring, so if we end up on N. Capt. I dont know thst it will be a big deal. If we did anything on Sanibel, it could be a huge deal, just interms of getting around for routine things.

    In part, we are comparing it to Belieze, Grenada, and Dominica (three places we love, largely for the fact that they are off the beaten path) as opposed to typical places like NJ, NC, etc.

    Regardless, I think we are still likely to hold off until the spring of next year, unless we decide it is necessary to move some cash.

    The news website is a great help.

  313. Shore Guy says:

    From the AP:

    “The people of Massachusetts have spoken. We welcome Scott Brown to the Senate and will move to seat him as soon as the proper paperwork has been received,” said Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev. Massachusetts Secretary of State William Galvin said he would notify the Senate on Wednesday that Brown had been elected.

  314. relo says:

    Homestead meaning it is your primary residence,registered as such, and then ppty tax increases are capped to a % annually based on your purchase year valuation. I believe that this base is also “portable” currently should you change homestead w/in FL.

  315. RaWDoG says:

    Thanks Ruggles. Much appreciated.

  316. Shore Guy says:

    So BOHICA for us. Homesteads get moderate increases and we get major ones.

  317. relo says:

    FL residency definitely has some advantages; state income tax/asset protection/ppty tax wise. Problem is, you have to “live” there. Not an insignificant hurdle these days.

  318. Qwerty says:

    http://money.cnn.com/2010/01/19/real_estate/fha_loan_requirements/

    Harder to get an Uncle Sam mortgage

    By Tami Luhby, senior writer

    January 19, 2010: 11:47 PM ET

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — It’s going to be harder to get a government-backed mortgage from now on.

    Looking to shore up its weakening finances, the Federal Housing Administration is set to announce stricter standards on Wednesday.

    The agency, which insured nearly a third of new mortgages in 2009, will increase the premium it charges for its mortgage insurance and require those with weaker credit scores to come up with larger downpayments.

    The FHA will also reduce the amount of money a seller can provide a homebuyer for closing costs, as well as tighten its enforcement of lenders.

  319. Annie says:

    #215 Perhaps you need to look again at what I said. Historically growth in wages equals growth in house prices. Of course that was thrown out the window with the no money down no income check, everybody get a mtg.

    Now that most of that has been diminished, and the FTHB credit may actually expire in April. along with the end of other govt manipualtion, than the fundamentals of houisng should come back as in growth in income equals growth in prices.

    So forget about your silly charts etc, maybe you actually need to live through a housing boom/bust, before you can comment on it. And what are all these other ways to keep prices high that have not already been tried?

    And by the way it is asinine,and you do torture yourself.

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