Thu 4 Feb 2010
Will the last one out please turn off the lights
Categories: Economics , New Jersey Real Estate , PoliticsFrom the Star Ledger:
N.J. loses $70B in wealth during four years as residents depart
More than $70 billion in wealth left New Jersey between 2004 and 2008 as affluent residents moved elsewhere, according to a report released Wednesday that marks a swift reversal of fortune for a state once considered the nation’s wealthiest.
Conducted by the Center on Wealth and Philanthropy at Boston College, the report found wealthy households in New Jersey were leaving for other states — mainly Florida, Pennsylvania and New York — at a faster rate than they were being replaced.
“The wealth is not being replaced,” said John Havens, who directed the study. “It’s above and beyond the general trend that is affecting the rest of the northeast.”
…
“This study makes it crystal clear that New Jersey’s tax policies are resulting in a significant decline in the state’s wealth,” said Dennis Bone, chairman of the New Jersey Chamber of Commerce and president of Verizon New Jersey.
…
Wealthy residents are a key driver for everything from job creation and consumer spending to the real estate market and the state budget, said Jim Hughes, dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University. In New Jersey, the top 1 percent of taxpayers pay more than 40 percent of the state’s income tax, he said.“That’s probably why we have these massive income shortfalls in the state budget, especially this year,” he said.
Until the tax structure is improved, he said, “we’ll probably see a continuation of the trend, until there are no more high-wealth individuals left.”
He added the report reinforces findings from a similar study he conducted in 2007 with fellow Rutgers professor Joseph Seneca, which found a sharp acceleration in residents leaving the state. That report, which focused on income rather than wealth, found the state lost nearly $8 billion in gross income in 2005.
From HousingWire:
Mortgage Delinquencies Pass 10%: LPS
Home-loan delinquency rates in the US reached 10% in December, up from the record-high 9.97% in November, according to Lender Processing Services, which provides data on mortgage performance.
Accounting for foreclosures in the pipeline, the total non-current rate stands at 13.3%, according to the data in the LPS database. When extrapolated for the entire mortgage industry, 7.2m mortgage loans are behind on their payments. Earlier in January, Fitch Ratings reported the delinquency rate among prime jumbo residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) almost tripled to 9.2% in December 2009.
For the amount of loans current at the end of 2008, 4.64% fell into serious delinquency. That means that of the loans current as of Dec. 31, 2008, 2.3m fell into serious delinquency by December 2009.
From the APP:
Several critics sound off on tax rate hike in Ocean County
The public offered mixed reviews Wednesday of a proposed 1.8-cent increase in the Ocean County tax rate to 27.2 cents per $100 of equalized assessed property value.
The five-member, all-Republican Board of Freeholders is blaming former Gov. Jon S. Corzine’s administration for a deepening fiscal crisis in New Jersey that has resulted in drastic reductions in state aid to county government this year.
Between declining revenue streams and added financial burdens imposed by state government, Ocean County faces an $8.1 million budget deficit of its own, if the tax rate is not adjusted to compensate. In the past few weeks, the county already has reduced the size of that deficit from $24.5 million through spending reductions and the planned use of $17.7 million in surplus, about half the available amount.
…
Larry Reid, 64, of Brick addressed the board during its introduction of the budget Wednesday. He called the proposed tax rate increase — at a time when so many county residents are unemployed or are functioning with reduced incomes — “unconscionable.”
Reid pointed out that the tax rate increase represents about 2 percent of the county’s proposed $347.9 million budget. Surely finding 2 percent to cut in the budget is an attainable goal to avoid a tax increase, he said.
The responsibility of keeping spending under control should not merely be the responsibility of state and federal government, but of local and county government as well, he asserted.
“It’s at all levels: It’s city government, town government, county government, federal government, state government — the only people that aren’t getting the recession are the people in those governments,” Reid lamented.
From the Times of Trenton:
Taxpayers are fickle creatures
In 2008, Maryland tried to balance its budget, in part, by fleecing the wealthy with a top marginal rate of 6.25 percent — a so-called “millionaire’s tax.” It was a politically expedient move that proved to be disastrous. One-third of Maryland’s millionaires disappeared from tax rolls compared to the prior year, dropping from 3,000 to 2,000. That’s 1,000 filers who suddenly found those beach houses in Rehoboth or Florida made for a splendid primary residence. Instead of filling the state coffers, Annapolis wound up getting 6.25 percent of zilch on that missing third.
In New York, another high-tax state, 1.5 million people left for greener pastures between 2000 and 2008. In Manhattan, the average departing taxpayer earned about $93,000, while the newcomer earns $73,000. The point is that people have choices, especially in a world where telecommuting has made job proximity less important.
Push people to exercise that power and they will. New Jersey residents have the option of moving across the Delaware River for lower taxes and cheaper housing, and have been doing so in large numbers. Anyone who commutes from the Trenton or Hamilton train stations can attest to the surprising percentage of Pennsylvania license plates in the parking garages.
So, memo to the State House: Think long and hard about tapping another vein of taxpayers already bled white. There are many New Jerseyans who, given the right incentive, would quickly trade Mercerville for Morrisville, Bergen for Bucks. When the piñata starts to walk away, it’s time to put down the stick.
This is not criminal?
Coming forward and admitting that you are switching ratings agencies in hopes the new agency won’t cut your rating? Hope the sales guys over at S&P got the memo.
Talk about buying a rating. No different from shopping appraisers until you get the appraisal you want.
Let’s not actually fix the broken fiscal situation. That makes too much sense.
From the Record:
Downgrade fears compel rating agency switch
Municipal officials are planning a switch to debt-rating agency Standard & Poor’s from Moody’s in an effort to sustain its bond rating while refinancing debt this spring.
grim anything goes in NJ. ya think christie
has his hands full? they will just continue
until nothing is left. NJ is a bust out state. forget welfare state
Re #4 Switching ratings agencies….
I believe the analogy of putting lipstick on a pig
may be appropriate here.
and the teachers/cops. they need a raise up
there. screw the taxpayers, lets bust it out.
I believe the analogy of putting lipstick on a pig may be appropriate here.
Maybe I’ll wear my Mortgage Pig pullover on the way in this morning.
‘You Cannot Buy Groceries with Your House’
One of the many (dubious) assumptions that Wall Street rocket scientists made before the housing and credit bubbles burst centered on what mortgagors would do if the economy hit a “speed bump” (back then, of course, the conventional wisdom was that severe downturns had been eliminated by expert policymaking, reams of academic research, and the wisdom of the ages).
Generally speaking, they believed that homeowners who ran into financial difficulties would behave in the same way that others had before them — that is, they would make sure the monthly mortgage bill was among the first to be paid.
Well, as with the notion that house prices never go down, this theory turned out to be wide of the mark, as Reuters reports in “More Consumers Pay Credit Card Before Mortgage: Study”:
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2010/02/you-cannot-buy-groceries-with-your-house.html
Sorry for the long post. This is a good one from FT.
US mortgage sector braced for end of Fed help
By Michael Mackenzie in New York
Last updated: February 3 2010 22:46
Cold turkey time is rapidly approaching for the US mortgage market as the Federal Reserve gets ready to end its mammoth $1,250bn buying programme at the end of March.
The prospect of such a large buyer moving to the sidelines means that the “artificial market” created by the Fed’s hefty purchases – part of a monetary policy strategy aimed at reducing mortgage borrowing costs – should result in more normal mortgage rates, likely to be at a higher level.
There is a great deal of uncertainty among many investors on exactly how to position themselves for the withdrawal of the Fed from the mortgage market. Many want higher rates, as it makes the investments more attractive. Yet the Fed wants to keep mortgage rates low to help home-buyers.
In a survey of some of the 4,000 people attending a securitisation conference this week, 73 per cent of respondents expected spreads on mortgage-backed securities to go “much wider” when the Fed ceases buying mortgage bonds, backed by mortgage agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. But the impact is hard to pin down.
When the Fed began buying mortgages last January, the average 30-year coupon on Fannie Mae mortgage paper tumbled to a low of 3.68 per cent, having surged above 6 per cent during the worst of the financial crisis in late 2008.
Since November, the mortgage coupon has eased from a high of 4.60 per cent to a low of 3.90 per cent and is currently about 4.40 per cent.
That places the 30-year coupon about 70 basis points above the 10-year Treasury yield.
Before the financial crisis, 30-year mortgage paper tended to trade 100bps to 125bps above the 10-year note, suggesting that the market needs to sell off between 30bps and 50bps once the Fed halts its buying. Roger Lehman, a mortgage securities analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects mortgage spreads will widen modestly by some 20-30bps, and not excessively, say beyond 75bps.
“Once spreads widen by 20-30bps, there will be demand mainly from banks and money managers,” he says.
Certainly the Fed’s buying has been met with grateful selling by mortgage investors over the past year, resulting in many portfolios being extremely underweight the sector.
For example, Pimco’s flagship Total Return Fund of $202bn, managed by Bill Gross, currently has 17 per cent of its assets in mortgages after being about 83 per cent a year ago.
Kent Wosepka, money manager at Standish Mellon, says they remain “pretty underweight mortgages in our portfolios” and are watching to see how the market copes once the Fed steps away.
Gerald Lucas, senior investment adviser at Deutsche Bank, said he expected current coupon mortgage spreads would slowly widen by between 20-30bps, but that buyers should step up. “Investors are so underweight mortgages, that a widening in spreads will be contained by pent-up demand to own the paper,” he said.
Reinforcing the scenario of a modest widening in spreads is the targeted nature of the Fed’s buying.
Mr Lucas says that the Fed and Treasury between them hold about 80 per cent of the current 30-year mortgage paper with coupons of 4 per cent and 4.5 per cent.
The current Fannie Mae 30-year coupon trades about 4.40 per cent and when money managers start to buy mortgages, they will want the current paper, not older issues at higher yields.
Given the fact that the Fed and Treasury own so much of the current coupon sector, that should help limit a rise in mortgage spreads, says Mr Lucas.
Not all investors are so sure that less supply will help limit spread widening.
With the Fed and Treasury owning so much of the current mortgage coupons, there is far less available for investors and much less liquidity, which could exacerbate changes in rates.
That is particularly the case should rates rise. Under such a scenario, holders of mortgages usually sell some of their portfolio in order to maintain a balance between their overall holding and the level of rates.
This type of technical selling has in the past been violent and amid poorer liquidity conditions could easily compound an unruly sell-off.
“It seems unlikely we will have a gradual widening in mortgage spreads,” says Mr Wosepka. “That’s not normally the case in markets.”
Indeed, some analysts see the Fed’s purchases as having removed volatility from the market. Once it stops, more volatility will return, by definition. The spectre of instability and a sudden jump in rates is high on the Fed’s watch list.
Policymakers said after their meeting last week: “The Committee will continue to evaluate its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets.”
That language is considered a code for further Fed buying should rates rise sharply, say analysts and investors.
Mr Lehman says that sharply wider mortgage spreads are likely to result in the government using Fannie and Freddie to step in and stabilise the market with buying. On Christmas eve the government announced that it would provide unlimited support for the mortgage giants over the next three years rather than cap their federal credit line at $400bn.
“If that doesn’t work we would not rule out the possibility that they may step in a bigger way,” says Mr Lehman.
Additional reporting by Aline van Duyn
its ok, call a bank and ask for some help.
see what they tell you. screw you pay up
“see what they tell you. screw you pay up”
You forgot it’s the “moral” thing to do…sarcasm off
These municipalities in Ocean county should be commended. They are doing more[taxing] with less[revenue]. Seems like sound economics to me.
moral my ass, they will try to screw you
until they take you last dime.
had a friend call me yesterday whos having
problems,, business is bad.
banks told him , no loan mod for you until
your past due. i told him to stop paying.
he’s underwater anyway
You mean like a crack dealer giving you the first few hits cheap, and then demanding a full price payment when you are clawing through withdrawls.
Or…
A banker is a man who lends you an umbrella when it is sunny, but takes it away when it rains.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704259304575043212033975040.html#mod=todays_us_nonsub_page_one
john terry is a monster!
(decent soccer player, too)
Wouldn’t the moral thing to do be to lower interest rates and amortizations for borrowers down on their luck?
After all, we are in the Great Recession.
Hey, banker, can you spare a dime?
“You forgot it’s the “moral” thing to do…sarcasm off”
He,
Tischman did not default, they simply returned the collateral. I suspect the colony of ants will do the same.
PGC,
You always say that “trickle down” doesn’t work, so I suppose you’d be happy to see rich people leave NJ, right? No need to worry about that wealth trickling down.
NJ is going to learn that a state functioning as a bloodsucking leech doesn’t work. Eventually people get out of the swamp and pour sand on the leeches.
Seriously, the alternatives are individual freedom, or state control (of banking, education, transportation, healthcare, and much more). Do you really think that having a government middleman in nearly 50% of the economy is a good thing?
For me, living in NJ is like going to a restaurant where I order a hamburger with ice water, and my coworker orders a T-bone steak and lobster tail, martini, and sundae, and when we’re done he says “let’s split the bill”. After all, I’m “rich” so it’s only fair.
#10“If that doesn’t work we would not rule out the possibility that they may step in a bigger way,” says Mr Lehman.
It that dosen’t work, than the govt will permanently be the mtg. market.
parking says:
February 3, 2010 at 11:51 pm
I need some advice. We have made an offer (accepted) on a condo and are in attorney review - we have just been advised of our parking spot and it is a compact spot - 16×7.6 feet long - right by the opening and a minivan (16′ 10″) would protrude 1 foot into the opening - all the other spots are full-size 18×8.6- the spots were assigned first come first serve basis however we were not advised when we made the offer that one of the spots is smaller than the rest - while we do not yet have a car we do have 2 kids and plan to get a minivan or suv - should we pull out of the sale - we may be able to get by with a smaller vehicle but i suspect it will impact the resale value - the condo is a 3 bedroom - so we would expect just families (with large cars) to buy - should we walk away or negotiate a reduction in price and if so how much - the condo is over 750k
without knowing more details … RUN, don’t walk, in the opposite direction of this sale.
just one guy’s opinion (and we bought a year ago, fwiw).
#21 750k for a condo?? What are these people thinking??
AW [19],
Absolutely. Shuffling money does not solve long term structural problems, it only adds to them. All they accomplish is funneling money from the private sector to pay for dead end jobs, where nothing is produced.
Allocate resources to those that are in the business of making a profit. Extend tax breaks and incentives to small businesses, where real jobs are created and products/services are produced.
Stop stealing from producers so some hack can decide which voting bloc needs to be greased. After all, how many holes can one actually dig?
BC (18)-
Akin to financing a Maserati, then giving back poop on a plate.
thats part of the problem . in nj, people
think, oh, its on 750k for this condo.
prices are dropping like rocks.
but its NJ, we got great schools
Collateral? I think the best collateral these days is body parts.
Earlobes, fingertips…getting a kidney is especially nice, since you can take one, and the guy can still live. Besides, there’s a vigorous aftermarket in kidneys, too.
condo ’s in NJ are worthless, how many are
on the market?
unless, you just steal it. even then do you get a reduce in taxes, or maintenance.
screw you pay up
#25 Well it appears it is only some morons doing it, if we are to believe the current post that wealth is leaving NJ.
750k for a condo they should be slapped.
how many of these over 55 joints do we have
with shabby construction, high taxes, high
maintenance, etc. and they think they got a
bargin.
wait till these joints start showing there age.
#19 A West
Your restaurant analogy is a good example of Trickle down economics. But it works like this.
You are rich and have a T-bone steak and lobster tail and martini, your co-worker has a burger.
The manager comes over and says here is a 15% off coupon. If I give you a discount I’ll hope you spend more and have desert, but it only applies to steak, lobster and martinis, it does not apply to burgers.
So you get a choice of buying a free sundae or more likey, as you were full and didn’t want a sundae in the first place, you just pocket the difference. Anyway if I want a sundae, I can afford to bay it anyway.
Your co-worker doesn’t get a choice.
how much main.for a 750k condo.
easy 650 a month. crazy
“Besides, there’s a vigorous aftermarket in kidneys, too.”
CCR [26],
I thought the rabbi’s in Deal had that market cornered?
Freedy,
You should tell your friend to tell the bank to ask the government for more TARP money or debt guarantees. Tell the bank he asked the government to give him some jack to pay his credit card bills and to guarantee his mortgage and his Senator laughed at him.
hey grim how is hov doing with the over 55
place in clifton? sold out yet?
Excessive taxation of the rich does not ultimately affect the rich. They will do one of three things:
1. Pay the taxes. After all, they can afford it.
2. Figure out a way to avoid the taxes.
3. Move to a place where there is less taxation.
What excessive taxation of the rich REALLY does? Provides a massive disincentive to those who are about to become rich or trying really hard to get rich.
Moreover, TPTB know this. The shame of this whole debacle is that we know how to create personal wealth and we know how to do it on a fairly large scale. The problem is, having a broad swath of society become wealthy makes it independent and less prone to falling under the influence of big gubmint. An informed, wealthy and independent populace cannot be subjugated by a collectivist welfare state.
When you look at the actions of the US gubmint over time- through the lens of its actions always being calculated to destroy the ability to build personal wealth- things begin to make much more sense.
To me, it’s obvious.
A new wrinkle in the loan mod front. You have to read this one. It just keeps getting better. Sarcasm off.
IRS Form 4506: Another Reason Why Real Estate Defaults Will Explode This Year
So the good folks in D.C. have come up with a number of methods to accelerate the restructuring process. On balance I think they will prove to be successful. But in this case we have to be careful as to how we define success. The new rules that will go into effect on June 1 will streamline the process. The guidelines have been established for getting debt relief. I think it comes down to this:
1. Show me your and your spouse’s tax return. We add those numbers up and multiply by 31%. That will be the targeted debt service for you.
2. If your income is equal to 31% or higher, take a hike.
3. If your income is less than 31% you may apply. But if your income is only 24% (example) then there is nothing we can do for you, Sorry.
The eligibility for a ReFi has been narrowed substantially by these steps. The introduction of the requirement to provide IRS form 4506 (permission to disclose IRS tax data) is going to accelerate the process. How many people that are contemplating this are going to comply with that request? As of June, no application will be accepted without it. No one wants to provide that information. This will cut the ReFi line quite a bit just by itself.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/186517-irs-form-4506-another-reason-why-real-estate-defaults-wil
Same link:
The word is out on this one in every corner of the country. If you want a break on your mortgage the first step is you have to stop paying for at least three months. I know for a fact that this is correct. I have seen it in a half dozen cases in just the last year. The banks/mortgage servicer will tell this to you on the phone. “You don’t qualify for debt relief, you’re not 90 days late”. In my experience the person on the other end of the line hears this and says to their spouse, “Honey, I have good news! We’re going to get the break we need. All we have to do is stop paying the bills”.
wait till these joints start showing there age.
perfect scheme.
owners will be dead by the time the problems are exposed, developers would have taken the money and ran.
I love this one, sounds like this guy is on the blog.
B) “We are just at the 31% level so we get no break. We are under water by at least 100k. We are now paying 3k per month and there is no upside anymore. We could rent the place next door that is just as nice as this place for $1,500 a month. If we send the bank the keys and sign the deed in lieu papers the most it will hurt our credit is for a year. No big deal, our credit is shot anyway. Let’s take the extra $1,500 a month and go on a cruise and get back to living. This home ownership thing is not what it was cracked up to be.”
Freedy is that you.
Taleb Says ‘Every Human’ Should Short U.S. Treasuries
Taleb said investors should bet on a rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, as long as Bernanke and White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers are in office, without being more specific.
It’s “a no brainer” to sell short Treasuries.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3E4uC5VIFeo&pos=5
The Premeir coming to the US for heart surgery? What’s with Canada’s single- payer, govt supported health care?
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=2510700
That’s Premier
that’s freedy except did not go on a cruise
was not paying 3k , and i screwed chase good,
and actually the credit scores are not that
bad, working on that now.
that can be fixed. cash is king
The end is nogh….
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/women_avoid_jail_in_penis_glue_plot_tJEgBDsYQFiYN1scME6p4K
i’m watching this unfold .. people could not
believe what i was doing, when i stopped
paying the note . screw them .
now seems to be trendy, as housing continues
to fall.
now if i can just pick up something on the cheap. lets see , Bergen County, well
prices still up . It’s close to NY and great schools ,,,
But wait will a bank take my credit app.?
of course wealth left the state; lots of people in their 50s and older sold their 60 year old capes for $500K and moved to places like Arizona and Las Vegas.
I wonder if this study is conflating the loss of population with the loss of wealth caused by the financial crisis.
Professional athletes and entertainers make enormous amounts of money and are always in the media spotlight. Inordinate amounts of camera and ink are devoted to them, yet virtually all of them fail to build any kind of lasting wealth. They manage to piss it all away or get duped out of everything.
Is the attention lavished upon these people calculated, or is it an accident?
Clot check this one out.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/186345-wednesday-rejection-weakness?source=email
Deflation my ass!
In the space of 4 weeks the United States is going to go further in hock to the tune of $1.9 Trillion. The vote in the Senate to raise the debt ceiling was 60-39. One wonders if this was rushed in before Scott Brown took was sworn in.
“WASHINGTON — The US debt is on track to hit a congressionally proposed debt ceiling of 14.3 trillion dollars by the end of February, the Treasury said Wednesday, a day ahead of a key vote to raise it to that level.
“Based on current projections, Treasury expects to reach the debt ceiling as early as the end of February. However, the government’s cash flows are volatile, making it difficult to forecast a precise date,” the Treasury said in a statement.
The current limit on the public debt of the United States is 12.374 trillion dollars.
The US debt exceeded 12.349 trillion dollars on Monday, according to Treasury data.
The US House of Representatives will vote Thursday on whether to raise the US debt limit to a historic 14.3 trillion dollars, allowing the United States to borrow another 1.9 trillion dollars.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hEkfx_bpGC-zVoeKNR38gWLcjXdw
Mike (49)-
Nice. Gotta look into EDZ. Seems like the financial version of juggling a vial of nitro, a running chainsaw and a grenade with the pin pulled.
Wow. This article is so misleading it is not even funny and I am really disappointed in that Bloustein guy! I would disagree with the uynderlying premise of this article. The reason there is a shortfall in the State budget is not because wealthy individuals are leaving the state, it is due to unemployment and an unprecedented recession.
The reason income tax receipts are down is simple, the state went from 6 percent to 10 percent unemployment in 1 year. Sales taxes are down similarly. This is not the result of the people leaving the state.
Yes, so about 302,780 households left New Jersey between 2004 and 2008. Well, 323,350 households moved INTO the state. Ofcourse retirees are leaving the state, but new workers are moving in. That is why house prices are relatively stable in NJ, there is still a very high demand to live here. This is due, in large part, to government investments in transportation, schools, services etc.
Finally, the implication that all tax revenue goes to hiring lazy government workers is just silly. For the most part, it goes towards investments in the State including infrastructure, schools, services, etc. This is the reason why NJ is still attracting more people to the state than are leaving. There is still a very high demand to live in the state and the article completely ignores that fact.
plg (52)-
I think that post pretty much confirms that you’re a brainwashed idiot.
The Condition-Code Red,
Very well reasoned response!
“I think that post pretty much confirms that you’re a brainwashed idiot.”
I love this place.
plg (54)-
Doesn’t take much reasoning to poke holes in multiple erroneous arguments. This one is the best, since you are incredibly wrong, even though you’ve got the facts right:
“Finally, the implication that all tax revenue goes to hiring lazy government workers is just silly. For the most part, it goes towards investments in the State including infrastructure, schools, services, etc. This is the reason why NJ is still attracting more people to the state than are leaving.”
Please address how replacing higher net worth individuals with people looking to milk the welfare and social services system is a net benefit to the state. The vast majority of people moving here are net financial drags on the state, and you are absolutely right in mentioning that our generous support system is the reason they’re coming. Too bad they contribute absolutely nothing in return.
#52 You sound like a realtor and you contradict yourself in your post.
And as far as stable house prices, in comaprison to CA or AZ, yes, but an approximated 20% decline in prices in our area does not appear stable.
And our property taxes are out of control,and horribly wasted.
I think I will stick with Mr. Bloustein’s analysis.
plg-
Please also economize your writing. “Lazy government workers” is wordy and redundant.
Speaking of good schools. I went to a meeting at my kid’s school to listen to the principal and superintendent explain the test scores from njask (No child left behind program.)
I came to the conclusion that many, if not most of the parents attending were morons who want to place sole responsibility for their kids cognitive development on the school.
The parents who I found the most clueless couldn’t correctly answer the sample questions.
The principal explained that the kids who read little to none at home (less then 3 books over the summer) were the kids that failed the reading and writing sections, while the kids who read the most scored the highest. One of the leading morons angrily said “Why didn’t the school tell us we should read to our kids. That should be on the school’s website”. And about 20 parents sitting around her nodded their heads in agreement.
Yes. It’s the schools fault you don’t read to your kids so their reading and writing skills lag behind their peers. Let’s remove all responsibility as a parent for our kid’s development. And the school does send home messages about how important it is to read to your kids and tips to boost their reading ability and activities the parents can do with their kids.
And this is a top 30 district in NJ. We are so fcuked.
I want to go to the Board and PTA meetings with a big bag of popcorn so I can watch these clueless parents in action. Much more entertaining then anything on TV.
toyne (57)-
Not just any Realtor…a Montclair Realtor. What other type would welcome an invasion of leeches with open arms?
“You sound like a realtor…”
If you look at the actual study it starts with an analysis of two previous studies study migration into and out of NJ. One done by Rutgers and one by Princeton.
The Rutgers study concludes that New Jersey’s economy is “strong
and well balanced.” The Princeton study concluded that “the economic impact of migration is
ambiguous.”
Granted those two studies focused on income rather than wealth, but the point is that the effects of migration are overstated.
My own personal opinion is that it is inevitable that older, wealthier retirees will leave this state. Why should they pay the property taxes if they don’t have kids in the schools? However, those retirees are being replaced, not with leeches as you all suggest, but with young families seeking job opportunities. The Princeton study also concluded that “the over-crowded Garden State might be experiencing some benefits from the
migration as the migration opens opportunities for unemployed residents.”
Here is the cite to the study: http://www.cfnj.org/news/Wealth-Migration-Study-February-2010.pdf
safe (59)-
In my district, members of the school board ram each others’ cars and get into fistfights.
Now that’s entertainment.
Note to self: look into running for school board.
Why is it that homeowners will readily accept the upside appreciation on their homes but when things head south, they step away from their committment.
If they sign, they buy and they owe. Banks should come down on them like a ton of bricks and chase them until forever until they get the money.
Why the hell should I pay for it. I lived within my means.
To the person that wants to rent next door and take the extra $ and go on a cruise, you are a coward.
#61 Why should they pay the property taxes if they don’t have kids in the schools?
Why should any of us be forced to pay property taxes for the schools?
plg (61)-
My job is moving people. For the past five years, it has been virtually 100% out of NJ. And no, it’s not just old people. Most of my friends and acquaintances from 40-50 y/o are already either planning to get out of NJ or actively pursuing it. I’m also part of that group; my daughter graduates HS next year, and I really don’t think my wife and I can hold out for another five years for my son to graduate.
The most productive segments of our former NJ middle class left in droves in ‘06, when they got a whiff that things had turned. Those giant suburbs in Cary, Charlotte and SC are all the proof you need. Many other middle to upper-middle class folks are the ones getting whacked by the current unemployment wave.
#65Why is it that homeowners will readily accept the upside appreciation on their homes but when things head south, they step away from their committment.
The same could be said of the banks.
Activate the plunge protection team.
“Why is it that homeowners will readily accept the upside appreciation on their homes but when things head south, they step away from their committment.”
Great question. Why not ask WS the same?
#63 clot
Your district sounds very entertaining.
I also noticed very few of the stay at home moms I see when I pick up littlesafe were in attendance. The crowd tended to be a lot heavier and no where near as attractive as the SAHM group. Could be in interesting case study for Tosh to further analyze.
Ants?
These “Freedys” waking up today and realizing that they were had, and that their best option is to walk away, are the sheeple that everyone has been talking about here for years.
Good for them now, but too bad when bad when they all came trampling in during 2003-2006 market that light the light they were seeing at the end of the tunnel was an oncoming train and not a path to riches.
They shouldn’t be glorified/admired. They’re fools.
Didn’t even have to field that one as I knew Clot would.
plg just because your numbers on addition of households looks higher does not neccessarily mean that tax receipts will increase, in fact those who migrated in may have been in lower tax brackets, rent and draw from the welfare state not contribute to it.
I would contend that California while larger than NJ has a more established public transportation system, multiple similar industries (pharma, farming, defense, etc.) and a simialr tax burden. Prices have dropped on order of 50-60% in some areas of California with similar speculation in the housing market. Price drops have been in and around major metropolitan areas as well as rural and lower priced enclaves. It’s not different here just smaller, colder, and more stubborn to accept reality. As your statement implies perception is still changing, don’t worry you will find religion right around May 1st. When the last of the government intervention ends.
#68 toyne,
65Why is it that homeowners will readily accept the upside appreciation on their homes but when things head south, they step away from their committment.
The same could be said of the banks.
And marriages.
When we finally overthrow the gubmint, it’s the office buildings we should storm. Drag out all the clerks and secretaries, and start shooting them en masse.
We can get control of the actual legislators, judges and executives easily. It’s the gubmint workers and the massive bureaucracy that’s killing us.
Freedy’s refrain:
Scr3wing your creditors: so easy a functionally illiterate moron can do it.
“Will the last one out please turn off the lights”
this has got to be my favorite headline.
wasn’t this the newspaper headline from the NYT back in the mid 80’s?
grim, post that article.
SAS
#65 “Why is it that homeowners will readily accept the upside appreciation on their homes but when things head south, they step away from their committment.”
So true.
The only “help” for homeowners I could even consider agreeing with would be a system that would keep track of whatever principal or artifically low interest rate assistance was given to them (either through gov’t or by the lenders) and then recoup that on any future upside from the sale of any real estate down the road.
So if Joe Bubblebuyer gets a 100K principal reduction on his mortgage in 2010, when he goes to sell the house in 2020 any profits from the sale go to pay back that 100K balance, interest-adjusted. And the balance sticks with him.
It would solve the immediate “crisis” but force people to suck it up and pay for their mistakes over the long-term; no more gambling on real estate, pretending you’re a genius who has “earned” something when things go well, and then crying to the govt for help when things go poorly.
Not sure why this is never discussed as a serious option.
#72 They shouldn’t be glorified/admired. They’re fools.
Perhaps But where was Tishman Speyer whan at the absoulte top they bought (Sty town, and PC Villagein NYC)
They walked away,are they foolish?
i like freedy. but, if he is the cat’s meow, take the pipes, appliances, & hot water heater.
sell’em on Ebay or Craigs list.
SAS
nw [72]
“These “Freedys” waking up today and realizing that they were had, and that their best option is to walk away, are the sheeple that everyone has been talking about here for years.”
Don’t recall anybody calling Tischman, BlackRock, MS, etc.., sheeple, over the last few years?
“Good for them now, but too bad when bad when they all came trampling in during 2003-2006 market”
Hey, Chuck was dancing until 2006.
“retirees are leaving the state, but new workers are moving in.”
PLG, this doesnt seem right to me. Do you have any studies to support that claim? From what i see, there is a net migration from nj.
http://pewsocialtrends.org/maps/migration/
The Condition-Code Red,
I appreciate the anecotal evidence that you are presenting. I understand the tax pressures in the State. The fact is, however, that people still want to live here. I also agree that property taxes can’t continue to increase at these rates without detrimental affects. My only point is that the article was a completely unbalanced “sky is falling” kind of piece that is not in proportion to reality.
Painhrtz,
I agree it probably is true that wealthier individuals are leaving more than the lower end. This does not account for the loss in tax revenue though. The article ignores the near-depression that has occured. It tries to link the tax revenue loss from the economy to wealthy people leaving, which is not accurate.
I also just have to take issue with your comment “California while larger than NJ has a more established public transportation system.” California’s public transportation system is a joke. NJ, for all of its problems, might have the best public tranportation system in the country. What other state has a web of trains and buses that compare to NJ?
“Please also economize your writing. “Lazy government workers” is wordy and redundant.”
There’s also an oxymoron in there.
meter (76)-
Riding the momentum of an uptrend also tends to make morons look like geniuses.
During those times, the morons (The Dancing Prince) go on CNBC and are lauded as masters of the land.
I don’t see CNBC rushing to have freedy on Squawk Box.
Im wondering why the Chinese Communist gov is encouraging their citizen slaves to buy gold and silver.
Perhaps their game it to grant legal tender status to coins thereby increasing the money supply without having the gov pay through the nose for bullion.
1 billion screaming Chinamen then become the consumer market for their own goods which American, eye brow shaving, grape soda drinking, disarmed, slaves used to be.
International demand for the Yuan then soars and the dollar drops like a rock.
Hmmmm. Pass the Doritos.
“I don’t see CNBC rushing to have freedy on Squawk Box.”
CCR [85],
Are they still on the air? I thought their line was pulled?
plg (83)-
If you don’t see the sky falling, it’s because your head is buried in the sand (or up Corslime’s ass). The people moving here are net DRAGS on the state’s resources. If we have massive losses of business and professionals due to draconian regulation and murderous taxes, what individual or company in its right mind figures out that NJ is a good place to live?
Answer: anyone who could be the beneficiary of what the gubmint takes away from productive people and businesses.
Sorry to be so blunt; I know common sense and blunt talk are anathema to liberals.
BC (87)-
It will be interesting to see what happens when their line is controlled by Crapcast.
plg (83)-
Bulgaria.
“What other state has a web of trains and buses that compare to NJ?”
al (86)-
There is a limit- even in China- to how many cheap plasma TVs one country can jam into its citizens’ hands.
“A banker is a man who lends you an umbrella when it is sunny, but takes it away when it rains.”
Yes. Absolutely. And it should be that way.
The old adage ‘if you need money, don’t go to a bank’ is and should always be true.
Key word there being need. Banks are not venture capitalists or investors.
Let’s talk Banking 101, by which I mean the traditional consumer and commercial banks whose primary function is taking deposits and lending them out.
Banks’ assets are the loans they have made. A normal return on assets (ROA) for a bank is slightly above 1%. This means that for every $100 the bank lends out, it earns $1. Or, stated differently, the bank needs to make 99 good loans for every one that goes bad just to break even.
Not an easy task, being 99% correct in your job.
Which is why prior to this bubble banks required minimum 20% down, 3x income loan limits, demonstrable employment history, and investigated gifting of downpayments. Using this ‘belt and suspenders’ approach on the asset being purchased, your other assets, and your income the banks assured themselves that they would in fact be repaid on at least 99% of the loans they made.
They were correct. Most of these institutions have in fact been repaid on their loans even in this downturn. The traditional banking model works, which is no surprise as it has been around for millennia.
Let’s talk disintermediation.
Disintermediation in the most general sense is cutting out the middleman. In banking, it is used to describe the process whereby investment houses (note: not banks, and often with no banking experience) circumvent the role traditionally played by banks.
Banks take deposits locally and lend them out locally to businesses and and homeowners - think ‘It’s a Wonderful Life’. If those loans failed, the bank failed. (Don’t jump, George!)
The investment houses though, and here are the important points, collect loans from everywhere, mixed them together, and sell them directly to large investors internationally. They do not hold the loans and therefore are not be hurt if the loans do not perform, let alone perform to the 99% threshold.
As a result, there is little or no diligence done, thus the total disregard of traditional credit standards.
If you don’t care if the loan is repaid, do you care if the borrower’s income is verified and the house is worth what was stated? Do you even care if borrower is employed and the house is appraised? Or if there is a downpayment? No.
The investment houses were giving out gold plated umbrellas to janitors because due to disintermediation the investment houses didn’t care if the umbrellas were ever returned.
To make matters confusing, many of the investment houses dealing with the public but acting as disintermediaries looked and smelled like banks. They had branches, tellers, credit cards, and names people recognized like JP Morgan, Citi, etc.
I understand people are looking for scapegoats and bankers make good targets (another situation with a deep history).
But if people actually care about what happened and more importantly care about exploring the real causes to seek solutions and avoid recurrences all the ‘bankster’ bashing gets us nowhere.
Leave the populist rhetoric to those with political ends. It is beneath the brainpower of most on this board.
#83 plg
You sound more and more like a bagholder.
What state can compare to NJ’s mass tranist,? Have you ever been to another state or metro area in the US or a city in Asia or Australia? In NJ you need to have 1 car per adult in the household unless you live on the mold coast.
I was really hoping to see COAH move thousands of people to places like rural Warren Co…then sit back and watch, as none of them could get a job or even find a way to make it into town.
PLG
Wealth leaving does not mean they leave businesses here. They either relocate them in their new local or shutter them. Hence your unemployment numbers. do you think everyone works in a large corporate entity or the government. It is the small and mid level business owners. Get a better understanding about economies of scale and business. I don’t see many welfare folks or section 8er employing multiple people.
Have you ever been to California? I have traveled up and down the coast by car and public transit. LA metro, Cal Trans, Bart, There isn’t a part of urban and suburban Califonia that isn’t touched by public transport. Far different from the all rails lead to NY and Washington we have here in Jersey.
does freedy get a star in his column for
selling at the top in Closter and the guy
who bought is now about 150k underwater?
@85 - CCR
CNBC, like everyone else in this fiasco, is talking its own book. Bull markets are a boon - they’re apt to put a positive spin on things. That shouldn’t shock you.
I don’t want to rehash the whole freedy thread but I still feel that people are being shortsighted. I know you in particular are a nihilist so I’m not talking to you specifically, but those who aren’t in your camp but who do cheer on freedy aren’t seeing this through to its logical conclusion.
The logic conclusion being that contract law as we know it will die and twist in the wind if this behavior becomes widespread. That will be the death knell for our (supposedly capitalist) society.
Again, I’m not talking about taking advantage of an implied put (strategic mortgage defaulting) as that is specifically written into the contract. I am talking about shirking credit card payments, other creditors, etc.
I wonder how loud freedy will cry when his customers/employer start taking his own advice and scr3w him royally.
plg says:
February 4, 2010 at 10:32 am
The Condition-Code Red,
I appreciate the anecotal evidence that you are presenting. I understand the tax pressures in the State. The fact is, however, that people still want to live here. My only point is that the article was a completely unbalanced “sky is falling” kind of piece that is not in proportion to reality.
plg: “The fact is, however, that people still want to live here” If you view this argument as black and white, then you are missing the point. Of course people want to live in New Jersey, but the opinions are all relative and represent a continuum of views.
On the margin, people who used to consider NJ are choosing elsewhere. If the overall impact is NET negative, this effect is all that concerns Hughes. Maybe you do not appreciate his conclusions as drawn from the facts he presents, but in context, what he is saying is really damning, consistent with anecdotal evidence, and at the heart a severe warning.
Please take it seriously.
freedy (96)-
Not everything is a zero sum game.
Pipe down.
Honestly, are you trying to piss off even your supporters? If you are, you’re doing it pretty well.
freedy does not do on the air or newspapers
was already invited.
Clot (90) lost some coffee thanks.
[19] A. West
I suspect PGC’s response would be to bar the door. Keep the taxpayers in, or at least impose an exit tax on them like the one that exists at the national level.
The ability to vote with one’s feet has been largely taken away at the national level (though the concept of the exit tax is, in my view, reasonable and should be emulated for estate tax purposes) but still exists at the state level.
What we are seeing though are some absurd results where states try to reach across borders to tax former residents, businesses, etc. I expect this circus to continue.
I also expect the Obama administration to take steps to overturn the Quill decision and BATSA, thus erasing state lines and allowing the states to pillage each other’s residents and businesses, based on ever more amorphous concepts of “nexus.”
Then there will be no escape.
meter (97)-
And who opened the door to this…Bergabe, Timmay, Hank, AG…or guys like freedy?
“The logic conclusion being that contract law as we know it will die and twist in the wind if this behavior becomes widespread.”
My only problem with Fredo is his bragging that he did something so intelligent. Most on the board didn’t get sucked in to the mania at any point and are better off financially for it. They should be bragging.
Fredo made a business decision.He played by the current rules No more no less.
Look out. freedy has crossed into Rickey territory (#100). Self-reference in the third person:
“freedy does not do on the air or newspapers…”
Rickey wants to play baseball.
#83 for all of its problems, might have the best public tranportation system in the country. What other state has a web of trains and buses that compare to NJ?
Wonderful transportation system?? The Record did a special a few years ago on Bergen Co’s mass transit system, (or lack thereof). To get from Mahwah to Hackensack,(a distance of about 10 miles), takes over 1 hour by mass transit, with 2 transfers!!!
How much does a family need to survive moving in to NJ?If there are more families moving in,how are they surviving?Most probably they came from a low cost,low standard of living state.I will think if one moves into NJ 1.They have good savings 2.Stable ang in demand job qualifications.
#67 Clot
“Those giant suburbs in Cary, Charlotte and SC are all the proof you need.”
Clot there is a big downside with that relocation. All those people who took the move to Charlotte with BOA, always thought they could always walk across the street to Wachovia, now, they are in serfdom as they can’t afford a relocation back to the tristate if they get canned.
All those in Cary, if they get canned by SAS (the company, not the poster), are looking at a self financed relocation to the likes of Oracle in Silicon Valley to stay in the same field.
Even retirees are trying to get out of FL as it isn’t working out. 100deg humid heat, Palmeto bugs and the retirement income getting squeezed. The condo pool closed due to the drop in maintainace revenues. The complexes and neighborhoods turing into projects due to the foreclosures and the illegal sublets to multi family low income.
I think for some people, the move out of NJ should be thought out more.
#74 And marriages.
Marriage is a cure.
@103 - CCR
Agree, they opened the door but the bottom f(r)eeders of the world have been looking for an excuse to carry out their subversive behavior.
Otherwise, what is the impetus for sticking it to Comcast (for example)? Were they bailed out?
(Mind you, I hate, hate, hate Comcast).
#108 The complexes and neighborhoods turing into projects due to the foreclosures and the illegal sublets to multi family low income.
Sounds alot like many formerly nice areas in NJ.
“The logic conclusion being that contract law as we know it will die and twist in the wind if this behavior becomes widespread. That will be the death knell for our (supposedly capitalist) society.”
Meter,
That has already occured. Rule of law has been abandoned. Ask the auto bond holders that got shafted by the unions. Any precedence?
Death knell? The last horse left the barn a couple of years ago.
PGC (108)-
I think that, on the balance, people are better off away from here than staying. There is not one compelling reason for anyone who left here to come back. The jobs are going (never to return) and the taxes are exploding.
We will get to the level of suburban NC, FL, Vegas, etc. And when we do, it will be all that, plus massive taxation, overregulation and shitty winters.
97. What color is the sky in your world? “contract law”?
PGC 30
Nice attempt at replying to AW’s trickle down analogy.
But the bottom line is this:
When my kids graduate I’m going to the Palme d’Or in Miami for a honker Grey Goose martini, followed up by the rabbit saddle and a great Bordeaux, and staying.
There won’t be any 15% off coupon to argue over back in NJ because I won’t be eating here.
And as more of my friends follow, the NJ burger joint will go out of business soon. Where you gonna eat then?
BC (112)-
When Joe6 gets screwed, it’s “extraordinary measures to save the economy”.
When banksters stand to get screwed, it’s “rule of law will collapse”.
Die, SPY, die!!!
“Wealth leaving does not mean they leave businesses here. They either relocate them in their new local or shutter them. Hence your unemployment numbers.”
First, the national unemployment rate is almost exactly the same as NJs. Jobs are not leaving the state, they are leaving the country. So the problem is not NJ, it is a larger economic meltdown.
Second, on public transportation. I said what STATE has better public tranportaion. Not country, I know europe has better public transport. What US state has better public transport? And of those states with comparable public transport, are any of them “low tax” states or similar to NJ “high tax” states?
NJ transit is the third largest public transportation system in the country. Im also not talking about individual cities, yest BART is a good city-wide system, but California as a state has an atrocious public transport system. They are a car state. NJ has NJ transit covering the whole state, Amtrak NE corridor, PATH, PATCO, several light rails and a huge bus system. It is one of the reasons Real Estate is so valuable in the State and new transit hubs.
Mike[36];
I’ve long thought that any mortgage application on a federally insured loan (FNM/FRE/FHA/VA) should be referred to the IRS. Applicant ’stated’ he made $120,000 in a landscaping business? That’s a statement against interest, and the IRS should simply compare to his tax returns and knock on his door asking for the commensurate remittance.
If the applicant wants to avoid disclosure, all they have to do is forego federal involvement in their financing decisions.
[52] plg
“Wow. This article is so misleading it is not even funny and I am really disappointed in that Bloustein guy! I would disagree with the uynderlying premise of this article. The reason there is a shortfall in the State budget is not because wealthy individuals are leaving the state, it is due to unemployment and an unprecedented recession.
The reason income tax receipts are down is simple, the state went from 6 percent to 10 percent unemployment in 1 year. Sales taxes are down similarly. This is not the result of the people leaving the state. . . ”
Good for you. Stick to your guns, and keep on keeping on with this sentiment. Make sure your elected officials know this too.
And since you are confident in the states’ future, and have your finger on the pulse of what will keep NJ humming, I am going to give you the opportunity to buy my place in Brigadoon for what I paid in 2008. I’ve even made some improvements.
C’mon, you’re a smart guy. Buy now or be priced out forever.
[108] PGC
“I think for some people, the move out of NJ should be thought out more.”
True, but not the moving out part, only the moving to part.
There’s other tax free states besides FLA. Personally, I’d take New Hampshire as I can’t stand Florida for more than a week. And as for the homestead exemption being a big attraction, that just points out poor estate planning.
[119] moose,
“Applicant ’stated’ he made $120,000 in a landscaping business? That’s a statement against interest, and the IRS should simply compare to his tax returns and knock on his door asking for the commensurate remittance.”
Classic! I love it! I wonder if the folks at SB/SE know this?
#118 It is one of the reasons Real Estate is so valuable in the State and new transit hubs.
Says who, You? And the difference between NJ’s transit system is that it is primarliy geared towards getting into NYC, not getting around the state, which who help for interenal economic growth.
Ad as for unemployment, our state level now matches the national level,and may be slighlty higher, but more importantly if/when this recession ends, why would a heavily taxed over regualted state like NJ be in the forefront of this rebound. Becsuse we are close to NYC.
NYC of course has it’s own problems, but yet there will always be those companies that wil chose to maintain at least some prescense in NYC. There is however, no compelling reason for a company to maintain a prescense in NJ.
NJ has to come up with more than we are close to NYC as an economic development program.
[118] plg
“NJ has NJ transit covering the whole state, Amtrak NE corridor, PATH, PATCO, several light rails and a huge bus system. It is one of the reasons Real Estate is so valuable in the State and new transit hubs.”
You are absolutely right. So how about coming over to Brigadoon and bidding on a house in a desireable train town that is sure to increase in value?
(and if you are curious, we are relocating to PA for reasons that could be construed to be tax reasons, but really aren’t, okay?)
4 grim
The second-best sentence from the article:
“In fact, bond ratings for New Jersey municipalities are being reduced at a faster rate than any other state in the nation, with 14 towns downgraded by the New York-based firm during the last quarter of 2009.”
TOYNE,
“It is one of the reasons Real Estate is so valuable in the State and new transit hubs.
Says who, You?”
Says the market. Real estate around transit hubs is far more valuable. Despite the high property taxes in NJ the value of real estate is still relativley high. One would think, if everyone was leaving the state due to high property taxes, real esate values would be lower relative to our neighbors.
All you free marketers should understand this. The market speaks for itself. NJ real estate, even with double the property tax bill, is worth more than real estate in PA. How do you all explain that demand?
PLG why am I even bothering your obviously close minded and you still didn’t answer my question have you been to California? I’m have been there about 10 times a year for the past 10 years. The whole state is interconnected just because you see in a movie that traffic is bad don’t infer it has bad public transportation. The population just choses not to use it. NJ public transport is pass through public transportation. The majority of it does not service NJ it sustains the transportation of folks into and out of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington. What major city do we have in NJ again, oh that’s right Newark and Trenton Major bastions of wealth and influence. Listen I grew up in NJ I must be a masochist because I love it here but I have been resigned mto the fact that as my salary has increased the probability of me remaining here is slim to none. Your probably the same type of self loathing boob who thinks brigadoon is better than X town because with no facts to support it. Go back to your insular world, watch american idol and put you head in the sand. We promise it will all be OK. Really
“does freedy get a star in his column for selling at the top in Closter and the guy who bought is now about 150k underwater?”
freedy, cashing out at the top is something to be proud of. You should have bragged more about that from the start and said less about the default. you would have probably gotten a much different reception.
“The market speaks for itself. NJ real estate, even with double the property tax bill, is worth more than real estate in PA”
[126]
Exactly. Nobody, on this site, stated that NJ RE will drop, or go discount to the level in PA. However, we all go down together. Nothing will stop the 30-50% drop in prices, in NNJ. The first 4 steps of the ladder will be chopped. The ladder may still function, just at lower levels. How’s that for free market.
Now, taxes?
Clot, you said:
What excessive taxation of the rich REALLY does? Provides a massive disincentive to those who are about to become rich or trying really hard to get rich.
I’m old enough to remember when, back in the 1970’s, people would say that it didn’t pay to fight for raises because past a certain point, most of it went to taxes. Sometimes, more income was actually a negative - pushed a person into a higher bracket. That was prior to the “Reagan revolution,” when the tax forms for the self-employed were as thick as a book.
BC,
Did you see my question from yesterday?
Where are the bond vigilantes these days?
Sovereign debt?
Getting more active in US Treasuries?
118 is a decent response from plg.
its hard to totally disagree. He is not saying anything extreme there.
And thats coming from someone who recently spent 3 hours going from princeton to nyc on nj transit. Then again someone unfortunate soul did jump in front of the train at new brunswick so you cant blame nj transit for that.
man, this is some thread. take it from a nj escapee, there is life after jersey. so we don’t have wegmans and fancy malls. get off that treadmill and you’ll be fine. people are actually pretty nice in other places.
BC,
Then our mansions of glory
Became mansions of pain
As the values kept dropping
And taxes increased again
The government kept spending
Budgets up out of sight
Its New Jersey, New Jersey, the New Jersey life
Painhrtz,
If it makes you feel better, California may have a great public transportation system. The point is that NJ has one of the best in the country. California is also a high tax state, like NJ. Mass transit does not come cheap. So one of the costs of good public transportation are taxes. Texas has very low taxes, but try taking a train somewhere in texas.
“Die, SPY, die!!!”
lol, I have my eye on vz. Its selling at 1993 prices, plus the 6% dividend to boot.
My goal is to purchase the stock for 1960 prices.
This afternoon.
” people are actually pretty nice in other places”
What universe are you living in? There is nothin, NOTHING, worth experiencing that lied west of the Delaware river, east of Queens, or south of Westchester.
Get a life.
@112 - BCBob:
“That has already occured. Rule of law has been abandoned. Ask the auto bond holders that got shafted by the unions. Any precedence?
Death knell? The last horse left the barn a couple of years ago.”
I don’t understand your analogy. A bond is an investment and is subject to risk. That’s written into the pricing, no?
And if you really believe that rule of law and contract law has been abandoned lock, stock and barrel, why haven’t you left the country?
The minute I believe that’s true, I’m outta here.
lies, even
NJ escapee
If i have Tosh befriend my wife on face book, do you think he might be able to convince her we need to leave the state?
Shore, a buddy from work was down here for a few days this week with his dad and brother. they stayed at a marina in islmorada. did some fishing went to the restaurant next door where the cooked their catch. these guys were in heaven.
Scribe [131],
A few guesses;
1) Batten down the hatches, preparing for the GD.
2) Batten down the hatches, preparing for the next crash.
3) Batten down the hatches, waiting for the fed to stop their shenanigan’s.
4) Batten down the hatches, waiting for technical levels to be violated, 4% yield?
I think the Freedy’s should get a reality TV show.
Dunno man, this guy Tosh must be a real animal :)
PLG
What NJ is not a high tax state! You basically just supported my reasoning why NJ prices are, can and will fall. NJ is not different it is all the same!!! We are just trying to enlighten you how and why home prices can not maintain their ridiculously linsane evel. With all of your arguments full of holes your holding onto relocation as a carrot. I think 24 is on maybe you should go watch.
[125] happy daze
A few days ago, a bond trader was interviewed, and he suggested avoiding NJ bonds altogether. He suggested instead that NJers invest in munis of other states because the tax hit would be less than the losses.
I posit that this would be sound only if one were investing thru a fund or intent on trading. Holding to maturity eliminates that risk unless you think that the muni will default. Also, it doesn’t speak to state bonds.
i watch the show right here every day.
8.grim says:
February 4, 2010 at 6:56 am
I believe the analogy of putting lipstick on a pig may be appropriate here.
Maybe I’ll wear my Mortgage Pig pullover on the way in this morning.
Never try to teach a Pig to Sing. It can’t be done and it annoys the Pig.
Nom[122];
Pardon my ignorance - “SB/SE”?
BC,
GD?
Painhrtz,
Not sure where you got that, NJ is a high-tax state. Im not really sure what you are saying.
Im not saying real estate prices can’t fall or that NJ is any different. I am saying it is not any WORSE, which this article implies with migration. I think real estate prices probably will fall, but not any more than any other state.
Completely off topic.
But this data makes me want to jump off the ride for good.
http://www.cnn.com/2010/HEALTH/02/04/baby.dna.government/index.html?hpt=C2
Clot is now my mentor.
Communist Planks 4 and 5.
4= Confiscation of property…
5= Centralization in the hands of the state by means of a national bank with State capital and a monopoly.
#126How do you all explain that demand?
Demand? I am not so sure I am seeing that. I am seeing lots of over priced garbabge sitting on the market month after month. All of course with double digit tax bills. Of course I have also seen dumb first time home bueyrs looking to get the 8k freebie buying with 3.5 FHA loans. Yep makes perfect sense overpay by 50k to get 8k.
I also see stupid people now yelling and screaming about property taxes being so high, the same idiots who voted yes to every spending referendum put in front of them in the last few years.
I also see lots of cheerleaders (sort of like yourself), who rationalize that prices and taxes are a badge of honor, and yet these are many of the very same people who plan to get out of NJ as soon as the last kid is out of high school.
Any Mazda5 or Kia Rondo owners here? Looking at upgrading to something with a 3rd row that isn’t humongous, these seem to be the pickings.
Any opinions would be appreciated.
“Wal-Mart to Lay Off 300 at Bentonville Headquarters”
http://www.arkansasbusiness.com/article.aspx?aid=0.0.132158
GD = great depression
Seems to be a whiff of deflation in the air today.
152. Wait until they try to put a microchip in your kid.
ahh, got to spruce up the house for the big
spring sale.
#151 I think real estate prices probably will fall, but not any more than any other state.
You might want to rethink NJ prices not falling more than any other state after reading the couple of sentences below.
“In fact, bond ratings for New Jersey municipalities are being reduced at a faster rate than any other state in the nation, with 14 towns downgraded by the New York-based firm during the last quarter of 2009.”
ah, nw, thanks
Ok, just for the record, I am not arguing that NJ doesn’t have problems. The bond ratings are a reflection of the budget in NJ, which is a disaster. I agree.
My whole point is that the article is misleading, it was not tempered with any of the opposing studies or data and NJ, like most high-tax states, are more in demand because they offer higher services and more jobs.
The article seems to imply that taxing the rich is driving them out of the state and that is not necessarily the case or the cause of the state’s budget problem. In fact, the State’s budget problem might most reasonably be solved through a combination of cuts in services and increases in certain taxes, like the gas tax.
One major cause of the State’s budget problem is an international economic crisis, not taxes.
#152 Pat,
It’s for the children.
I wonder if the DNA
“SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo unveiled a lawsuit Thursday against Bank of America, its former Chief Executive Ken Lewis and former Chief Financial Officer Joe Price. The suit alleges that Bank of America’s management intentionally failed to disclose massive losses at Merrill Lynch so that shareholders would vote to approve its acquistion of the investment bank. Once the deal was approved, Bank of America’s management “manipulated” the federal government into saving the deal with billions of dollars in taxpayer money by falsely claiming that they would back out of the deal without bailout funds, Cuomo said in a statement. Bank of America spokesmen didn’t immediately respond to an email seeking comment on Thursday. Bank of America shares fell 3.6% to $14.97 in afternoon trading.”
Cuomo Forcing Shapiro to Act
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100204/ap_on_bi_ge/us_bank_of_america_merrill_lynch
Kenny Lewis just told the bartender make it a double.
#162
i wonder if the DNA from the kids on file gets cross referenced in criminal cases.
Clot - This is for you.
Don’t Know Much About Finance…
I’m ashamed to admit that I really don’t understand economics and finance. I mean REALLY understand it. Dow Jones, indexes, bonds..it’s another language to me. They didn’t offer economics in high school and I stayed clear of it in college. Sad, but true. A local teen wants to help his peers so they don’t grow up like me.
Lance Barnard (that’s him on the left) started a website called Teens Guide to Money where he teaches teens (and adults) all about finance basics, with a large focus on saving. This kid would make Alex P. Keaton proud.
I asked Lance how a junior in high school knew so much about money and wanted to educate others:
My grandfather introduced me to the stock markets when I was 11, setting up a virtual stock market, which introduced me to researching and investing. You can’t invest without money, so since I was about 11, I have had various jobs: a mother’s helper, shoveling snow, yard work and helping clean out houses and moving. Recently my jobs have focused around computers: building and selling them, and repairing them.
I was motivated to create the website when I realized high school was not providing financial education to students. Since I enjoy following and investing in the market, I would try to talk to my friends about it. Although some knew what I was talking about many did not. My school, Montclair Kimberley Academy, offers a brief introduction to finances in the fourth grade and a optional course in economics as a senior, but no mandatory financial education for all students. Students are leaving school unprepared to become fiscally responsible adults. Even adults have asked me about finances leading me to realize the lack of basic financial knowledge in the general population here in US.
Much of the current financial crises goes back to the lack of financial literacy of our population. People don’t know how to save and invest their money. They purchased items, especially cars and homes, that they couldn’t afford. Yes, the banks too were also responsible, giving loans, to people who they knew would not be able to make their payments. A little less greed, more financial knowledge and responsibility would go long way to help our current financial crises.
Pretty impressive right? Have your teens check out Lance’s website and read it yourself too.
http://www.baristanet.com/baristakids/blog/teens-guide-to-money-finance-education/#more
161.
The crisis was engineered.
Logic like yours is why this state is so completely f’d up. You want real tax solutions change the way public education is funded. Let those POS government tit suckers compete like the rest of us do in the real world.
No private sector job growth in NJ for the past 10 years meanwhile 55,000 government jobs were created.
It cant be papered over. It must be fundamentally changed. The game is up.
BOA gets sued , they pay the fine move on.
same with lewis, settled
whats the big deal. Taxpayers screwed again
Whenever I read anything about Cuomo, I take it with a grain of salt and wonder where it fits in, in terms of him positioning himself for a run for governor.
PLG to capture what a moron you are here is a brief paraphrasing summary of your posts.
PLG (52) The article is wrong high demand to live in NJ. Tax receipts not rich voting with their feet the problem is unemployment.
Who provides the jobs again?
PLG (61) unemployment is high, but thanks to the retirees leaving it will open up opportunities in overcrowded NJ.
I thought unemployment was at 10 percent. What incentive would companies have to backfill retirees in a contracting economy?
PLG (83) Article is a sky is falling cassandra. Out of touch with reality. People still want to live here. Nj has the best public transportation. Cali public trans is a joke.
Ugghh
PLG (118) Jobs are leaving the country not just NJ.
I never said they were staying in the US. Personally if I had the cash I would be making my home in New Zealand or Argentina but hey I’m not rich.
PLG (118 cont) blah blah blah Bart is a city wide system. You then cite PATH as an example.
which multi point destination does PATH support again. F@ck New York city. Why is it any greater than people getting around San Fran?
PLG (126) Because of mass transit and I quote ” NJ real estate even with double the property tax bill, is still worth more than real estate in PA. how do you explain the demand”
I’m sure some of the suburbs for Philly on the PA side would disagree with this statement.
PLG (135) quote “if it makes you feel better Cali has great public transportation. Cali is still a high tax state. Texas has low taxes but don’t try to catch a train.”
By the way Houston, San Antonio, Austin and Dallas Fort Worth have great bus systems. Last time I checked they still have trains in Texas too. It is this funny thing called AMTRAK!! Maybe you have heard of it. Have you ever left NJ?
PLG (151) “I’m not saying prices can’t fall or NJ is different (see quote 126) NJ prices will probably fall but not more than any other state.
No kidding, really once again have you left NJ? The west coast and Florida are f#$king real estate wastelands. Foreclosures dominate the news. The government had to bail out a good number of the banks. About 30 states are on the edge of bankruptcy and all you can come up with is this wishy washy statement.
Wake up, NJ is nuked! Game over, we are all fu(ked!!
Good day sir!
nj has been a welfare state for many years.
it s coming to a head.
we cant even make money with AC or racing
they ran that into the ground as well.
let more into the state,, on the low end.
give them welfare , s8, food stamps, free health care, , the state’s broke.
headquarter operations leave as fast as they can.
but , the teachers, cops, muni’s , get a raise.. screw you taxpayer , pay up
It ’s NJ , close to NYC .
I’m here for the water. And the schools. And the proximity to Manhattan, even though I never go there. And the friendly people. And the beautiful capes with original kitchens and baths.
safe,
i’m here because i married a jersey girl….
Painhrtz,
Are you off your meds again?
Shiny, wow.
Took the ride early last year from $770 to the low 9s in about six weeks. Wanted it LT, but was writing calls.
Travelling, got called out over a weekend, on Monday it gapped up. Threw a hissy fit and waited for it to come back down to reload. It didn’t.
Any thoughts from our gold bugs, other than ‘buy’?
Technicals, data points? How much influence by the dollar going forward?
Looks like more dollar pricing influence than fundamentals may be baked into price than I thought.
Trying to refine a new entry point.
All disclaimers granted.
#140 - If i have Tosh befriend my wife on face book
If you want I’ll give it a shot and unleash my sexy at her!
All I may be able to do though is convince her how awesome The Kills are.
Yes, there is a bigger a-hole in Amerika than Frank:
GAINESVILLE, Fla. (AP) - U.S. Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas told Florida law students that corporations and unions have a First Amendment right to spend money on political candidates.
Thomas spoke Tuesday at Stetson University and defended the Supreme Court’s recent decision that corporations and unions can spend freely from their treasuries to run political ads for or against specific candidates.
“I found it fascinating that the people who were editorializing against it were The New York Times Company and The Washington Post Company,” Thomas said, according to a report in The New York Times. “These are corporations.”
Thomas, who is scheduled to talk to University of Florida law students Thursday, voted with the majority last month in the 5-4 decision. The ruling earned a public scolding from President Obama during his State of the Union address last week.
Thomas did not directly address the flap over Obama’s remarks, but he told Stetson students he wasn’t there to hear them in person.
“I dont go because it has become so partisan and it’s very uncomfortable for a judge to sit there,” he said, adding that “theres a lot that you don’t hear on TV - the catcalls, the whooping and hollering and under-the-breath comments.”
plg (126)-
The prices asked are relatively high. However, the values are dubious.
“Despite the high property taxes in NJ the value of real estate is still relativley high.”
Nope naturally screwed up, but I think I shined a light on your double talk. As clot put it your obviously brainwashed, I’ll add ill informed
Hyde (174) I am so sorry, I married one too, but I grew up here I should know better.
berkshire downgrade not good
Harrisburg PA goes POOM!
The latest fright comes from Harrisburg, the capital of Pennsylvania. The city is considering seeking bankruptcy protection—as well as tax hikes and asset sales—to address $68 million in debt service payments due this year.
Harrisburg does not stand a chance at making its payments. The $68 million in debt service payments is four times what the city expects to raise through property taxes and $4 million more than the city’s entire operating budget.
Ironically, the debt burden that is trashing Harrisburg was incurred to build a waste incinerator.
http://www.businessinsider.com/it-begins-cash-strapped-cities-begin-to-crumble-2010-2
anybody think many over 55 condo’s for sale?
Schumpeter,
“The prices asked are relatively high. However, the values are dubious”
I agree with your sentiment. I personally feel that NJ real estate is over valued too.
The fact is that the real estate still sells at very high levels relative to other places.
You are not going to find me buying a 500K cape cod, but many, many people will. The market sets the value, not yours or my own opinion.
OK. Update on my stock options at my employer that I exercised and were turned into restricted stock. The stock cratered before the vesting period ended, then employer sold the stock to cover the annual fee for the account, leaving me 11 cents for my 5.5 years of service.
I called and asked they close my account and send me a check. Was told they are not allowed to send checks for less then the cost of a stamp.
I wanted that 11 cent check!!! I was going to frame it and hang it in the bathroom across from the toilet and dare HGTV to decorate more cheaply then that.
Another dream crushed by The Man.
#184 but many, many people will. The market sets the value, not yours or my own opinion.
And yet there are still so many (500k cape cods), that are sitting out there, with no buyers. Without FHA and the 8k there would be even more. If those supports are taken away, well than it will be a whole different game.
pain (145)-
Give up. Liberals are immune to common sense.
#174 Hyde,
I married an immigrant who has since morphed into a Jersey Girl. I’ve been wronged.
I’m beginning to think plg is pret. Constantly moves the target of conversation and backtracks on things he’s already said.
Clot 178 - If he was speaking at Stetson, he wasn’t speaking in Gainesville. Feh Gulfport/Gainesville. Cr*p fact checking.
#186 The market sets the value.
only its not a real market, Govt financed and manipulated.
plg
this is from 2006
http://money.cnn.com/2006/01/25/news/economy/income_gap/
take a look at the stat for NJ. Think it has gotten better?
So I’m told the marginal open house we went to look at last week in GR has “3 offers and counting”. The sheeple are still out.
plg
here is another one from 2007
<i.The stats make it seem as if all Jerseyans live on Easy Street. In 2005, Garden State households together posted the country’s highest median income, $61,672. That’s 33 percent higher than the national median of $46,242. But the figure is misleading. In reality, there’s a huge and still widening gap between rich and poor. Incomes of people in the bottom 20 percent grow at a much slower rate than incomes of people in the top 5 percent. But everyone, including those in the middle, feel squeezed.
“The strange thing about income distribution in New Jersey,” says Jon Shure, president of New Jersey Policy Perspective, “is that no one who makes $150,000 feels rich. But they’re making more than 90 percent of the households in New Jersey.”
The culprits, of course, are high taxes and high cost of living. According to the most recent statistics, for 2005, median mortgage payments are 50 percent higher for New Jersey homeowners than for the nation as a whole.
http://njmonthly.com/articles/towns_and_schools/the_land_of_the_plenty.html
Pat (152)-
The gubmint is the enemy of us all. They are motivated, aggressive and moving every day to impoverish us and enslave us. Every day that we do not prepare to fight back is a day lost.
did they do a perp walk for mIke jackson ’s
doc yet?
Shump I realized I got sucked in when I was going back and taking notes on plg’s previous posts. Logic be damned
I should know better. your right it is Pret, I have had less moving targets to hit on pheasant hunts.
gator (166)-
Should it be you or I who contacts Lance Bernard to inform him that the value of his Montclair Kimberley education is part of the last great bubble to pop?
#161 I suggest you go to a local mayor/council meeting, or BOE meeting get a copy of the budgets and talk to you local elected officials;eye opening and frightening.
Forget about you silly comment about international crisis.
I don’t dispute that there is a huge wealth disparity in NJ or that we are a “high-tax” state. My point is that people continue to want to live here regardless. They make a choice to pay the taxes for whatever reason. Home prices are still relatively high, people still pay the property taxes.
From that one article, it is true that someone making 150K in NJ doesn’t feel like they are wealthier than most, but they are. They choose to live in NJ for the job opportunities, services and schools despite the expense. New York City is the most expensive place to live in the country, but people still want to live there!
Agreed, retirees are going to leave the state. The things that make NJ attractive are not attractive to retirees. (schools, jobs) Therefore, we might lose some tax revenue from the loss of retiree taxpayers. However, that is made up for because those retirees are replaced with young families, who do find NJ attractive. The sky is not falling, taxes are not crippling the state, a world-wide economic collapse is crippling the state.
#161 My whole point is that the article is misleading, it was not tempered with any of the opposing studies or data and NJ, like most high-tax states, are more in demand because they offer higher services and more jobs.
You might want to rethink that comment, after rereading the few lines below.
In fact, bond ratings for New Jersey municipalities are being reduced at a faster rate than any other state in the nation, with 14 towns downgraded by the New York-based firm during the last quarter of 2009.”
I love it. Ken Lewis gets blackmailed by Klink, knuckles under, plays ball…then gets prosecuted for it.
Cuomo’s complaint reads like something out of Fahrenheit 451. BAC bum-rushed the gubmint? That’s great stuff…
plg,
the US census has a fair amount of info on the NJ income quintiles. take a look
What you will see is that NJ income is highly stratified.
What this means is that, as clot and pain have pointed out, those moving into the state do not make up for the lost income from the high earners leaving the state.
In short it takes multiple new persons entering the state to make up for the 1 high earner who leaves.
this is a recipe for disaster as its not a 1-1 relationship.
taxes will be forced tog oup very quickly and services cut becaue a loss of 10% of your high earner income base cannot be made for by a 10% increase ont he restdue to the large difference in effective tax rates. The tax increases would have to be greater then that 10% to make up the difference.
Its no so very different from Chernobyl. The longer we tell our selves that its all OK the quicker the situation is spinning out of control, until the point where the state is doomed to bankruptcy.
We already be past the point of no return. IF we arent, we are very close.
I’m done somebody else pick up the slack
Sean (182)-
Too bad. Guess that soccer complex on the island in the river is gonna downscale. That place was one of the best anywhere for games & tournaments.
#200 However, that is made up for because those retirees are replaced with young families, who do find NJ attractive. The sky is not falling, taxes are not crippling the state, a world-wide economic collapse is crippling the state.
You are delusional. The young family is moving into the state paying 500k for the same dump that th retire paid 35K for 30 or 40 years ago. ANd paying double digit property taxes for schools that for the msot part are just OK.
Shump, Cuomo is trying to takethe Spitzer path to the governer’s chair.
Hope he meets a similar fate, I’m really tired of political families treating their constituents in their states as serfs and elections as coronations.
LW [176],
The bottom of the triangle, 1075, was violated. This break could lead to a quick drop to the next support level in the 1010/1030 area. This is where it will get interesting. This is the top of the 20-month consolidation which led to the huge move last year. This market has a tendency to go back and test key support levels, before making its next move. If 1010-1030 does not hold, the next strong support is 850-900.
These are just targets on the chart, not an endorsement to buy/sell.
Watch Euro/Yen, it is the world thermometer for risk. It is getting pulverized, Euro down/Yen up. Pull up a chart of this pair overlayed by a S&P chart. Granted, there may be a disconnect in the future. However, it has been spot on. At this time, anyone trading stocks or commodities would be well served to glue this to their screen.
plg
have you seen the latest income stats?
Income in NJ is falling through the floor while cost of living is shooting to the moon.
Look at all the pharma closing! high income jobs are leaving the state in droves. The jobs that are taking their places are low income service jobs.
ok i’m done here…..
freedy, when you go all xenophobe, you should tag the posts as pesche.
safe (185)-
Why don’t you console yourself by mailing them a bomb?
#200 The sky is not falling, taxes are not crippling the state, a world-wide economic collapse is crippling the state.
Out of control public sector employees with extravagent beneifts, coupled with millions poured into NJ’s waste land cities, mixed in with uninformed voters who said yes to every spending referendum (cause they were told it would increase the value of their house so they could sell it to that nice young family, and than leave), ahve destroyed Nj on a sate and local level. The international crisis is just a sideshow.
To make a comment that taxes are not crippling the state is absolutely mind boggling. What has to happen before people like you and others wake up!!!
plg
“have you seen the latest income stats?
Income in NJ is falling through the floor while cost of living is shooting to the moon.
Look at all the pharma closing! high income jobs are leaving the state in droves. The jobs that are taking their places are low income service jobs.
ok i’m done here…..”
I have to keep making the same point. This is not a NJ phenomena, this is a national one. Yes we, as a country, are losing high paying jobs and replacing them with jobs at Wal Mart. That has to be addressed. It is largley the result of the under-valuing of the chinese currency, undermining US ability to produce exports. This is not solely a NJ problem. Incomes are dropping across the board and cost of living is going up. (which is largely a healthcare problem).
I am only point out what it is in the Princeton and Rutgers studies I discussed earlier. NJ has a fine economy. There are huge national and international trends at play that are occuring across the country. NJ just happens to be a high tax state, but people are still buying the 500K capes because it is, RELATIVE to other places, a decent place to get a job and raise a family.
LW,
One other item. Watch Dr Copper.
Uggghhh, take that back plg is Carla Katz or Corzine
plg (200)-
Again, correct. They are attractive to people interested in milking all the benefits an out-of-control welfare state has to offer.
Don’t even dare to argue that the people moving to NJ are people starting small businesses and looking to hire.
“The things that make NJ attractive are not attractive to retirees.”
If you are a deadbeat, a lazy moron, illegal or just a garden-variety grifter, where would you move: Texas or New Jersey?
you guys don’t deal well with opposing points of view.
Go to Elizabeth or Linden. Then, tell me about your average newcomer to NJ.
Being in the soccer community gives me a good, up-close look at this all the time. Even the damn little kids are undocumented.
I’ve floated the idea by my wife of buying property abroad (Spain, most likely) and renting here (NJ) until I either get laid off, find work elsewhere, or the US collapses.
Property taxes here are prohibitive. And I think it’s just a matter of time before they become the same in other states.
plg
this:
http://static.businessinsider.com/image/2b37544bd14ad7499f4f1300/debttogdp3png.png
is due to the chinese currency? They forced the US to drown itself it debt? And this debt was largely created during the so called “boom” times….
wonder how all those boom times would have fared without the meth(debt)
plg (217)-
Not when they’re as lame as yours.
#213 ok i’m done here…..”
Thats rich.
meter:
spain? really? 40-50% youth unemployment. one of the most overvalued realstate markets in the world. fresh water supply issues, a currency which is a ticking time bomb…..
My vote is chile or canada if i’m buying a foreign nompound.
“I’m done somebody else pick up the slack”
LOL, Pain, I gave up two days ago.
toyne,
true. i do enjoy the self inflicted pain of beating my head against the wall.
#217you guys don’t deal well with opposing points of view.
You have not presented one.
BC (208)-
Methinks there will be some very interesting news out of the Eurozone this weekend. Personally, I don’t think they can even begin to stop or handle a Greek default, and it’s lights out if Spain or Portugal hits the skids.
Interestingly, what do you all think of Christie’s idea that he is not going to raise revenue and simply cut spending. Everyone wants to cut the size of state government, but the costs of “state government” are a small part of the state budget. He is suggesting, in effect, massive cuts in aid to local municipalities because 3/4 of the State budget goes to various forms of aid to municipalities. What affect do you think this is going to have on property taxes?
Yikes!
http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-and-world/fl-shark-attack-stuart-20100204,0,1233809.story
“Shump, Cuomo is trying to takethe Spitzer path to the governer’s chair”
Which of course was the Giuliani path.
Due process be damned, give me some scalps for a perp walk!
My vote is chile or canada if i’m buying a foreign nompound.
Was Costa Rica still a viable option? I know this subject was discussed before, can’t remember if CR had any glaring issues.
#213 NJ has a fine economy.
This one statement says it all. how can any one have an intelligent discussion with you, after making that comment?
plg (213)-
Better go home. I think Rendell is banging your wife.
Cuomo has no opposition now that Rudy is not going to run. Lazio is a joke and Patterson will not get 30% of the primary votes. I bet Cuomo wins the General with 60% of the votes.
#228What affect do you think this is going to have on property taxes?
Ummm, they are going to rise even more dramatically than they have??
you want to get attacked here ,, talk about
a walk a way. screw the banks…
Paging Mr. Boson. Mr. Higgs Boson, please report to the CERN information desk.
http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/41631
tosh (231)-
Soccer not good enough.
“it’s lights out if Spain or Portugal hits the skids.”
Ireland and England aren’t looking to good either.
[149] moose
Small Business/Self Employed
One of the major divisions at IRS.
TOYNE,
“NJ has a fine economy”
If you look at the study it cites to two other studies.
One done by Rutgers which concludes that NJ’ economy is “strong and well-balanced.”
The other study, done by Princeton, concludes that “the economic impact of migration is
ambiguous. Unlike the report from Rutgers the report from Princeton contends that
workers are migrating from the state but the jobs are not.” http://www.cfnj.org/news/Wealth-Migration-Study-February-2010.pdf
Just stating the facts.
Real estate in Spain has gotten absolutely crushed and they have no government backstops, so your comment is incorrect. Also, the cost to carry RE is extremely low.
Plus I’m all cash. If the currency devalues, it’s to my advantage.
I don’t plan to locate myself in any locale colder than where I am, thanks, so no Canada for this guy. Unless you mean Vancouver, but I don’t think you do.
I don’t know enough about Chile to comment, but I’m thinking South America is on net relatively lawless. If you buy into the ‘I’ll need a compound and personal armaments’ scenario, that might be your best bet, but I’m not making those assumptions.
Retirees and peole at the top of their earning power with, in general, little to no debt, thus proportionally high amounts of money to spend on discretionary purchases get replaced with young families, in general, at lower rungs of the earning ladder, huge debt given current home prices, and less ability to engage in discretionary spending, thus slowing th velocity of money through the state’s economy, PLUS utilizing high-cost services such as schools at a higher rate is a plus for NJ?
I do not see it.
#238 - Good enough of a reason.
toah
costa rica could be an option as well, but may have an increased risk due to its immediate neighbor’s
we have a budget expert this guy Rosen, saying that the wealth leaving NJ,, no problem;
we tax income , not wealth.
“It is largley the result of the under-valuing of the chinese currency, undermining US ability to produce exports.”
[213],
That’s funny, the yuan is pegged to the dollar. Are you stating that our govt is manipulating currency crosses? China should allow more flexibility with their currency bands. After all, Timmy told them that we were serious about tackling our budget defecits.
During boom times, there was never any mention of the yuan. Now it’s the culprit? How about an economy which was a charade, built on years of climbing debt and ludicrous credit/lending practices? Eventually, the house of cards collapses.
It is entertaining how all those that missed this now are experts in dishing out blame. Sit back, enjoy the view. Watch them attempt to rip off each other’s head.
What does Hyde say? Got popcorn.
“migration is ambiguous”
Does tht mean you cant tell if it is a guy or a chick?
Shore
seems to me we may be at an impass of sorts similar to what was going on before Quantum physics showed up. lots of new ideas being played with too.
Troll and shill….
plg says:
February 4, 2010 at 11:05 am
It is one of the reasons Real Estate is so valuable in the State and new transit hubs.
“costa rica could be an option as well”
In a world of U.S.onomic collapse, being an American in Central America or South America is a recipe for disaster. Even well-armed Americans will be at a real disadvantage relative to the private armies down there.
“Spanish Real Estate and the No Good, Horrible, Very Bad Bank
Spain occupies the far southwestern corner of Europe, rolling out along the Iberian peninsula bordered by Portugal and the Atlantic Ocean to the west, the Mediterranean Sea to the east. Both a former empire and the original melting pot, over the course of the country’s 35,000-year history it is easier to count the barbaric dictators, megalomaniacs, and murderous religious nuts who have not, at some point, stepped foot on its soil than the ones who have. Spain practically invented the religious war, or at least perfected it.
Still, few Americans realize Spain is larger than the state of California. Most, if they think of the country at all, think of it as little more than a subsidiary of the Club Med franchise, basically just a resort, or a small section in the back of their local wine store. But it has the ninth or tenth largest economy in the world, so when the head of the country’s mortgage industry declares the entire real estate industry bankrupt, it’s “worrying,” as the local news there puts it.
After all, real estate is nothing if not a religion, and when the chief pope-in-charge of doling out mortgage loans declares the very backbone of that religion bankrupt, students of history know that bloodshed is likely close at hand.
On Tuesday, while the world was nervously eyeing Greek and Swiss bankers for any furtive movements, Santos Gonzalez Sanchez, president of the Spanish Mortgage Association, the man who speaks on behalf of the country’s mortgage lenders, essentially had a nervous breakdown in public, declaring the country’s entire real estate industry bankrupt. Which is true, but beside the point. This is the man who heads up the whole gig. It would be similar to the pastor at your local church painting the sanctuary red and sacrificing a bull… just for fun.
“The real estate sector is bankrupt,” Sanchez said, pointing out that Spanish developers had a combined debt of $450 billion in the third quarter of 2009, the equivalent of around 30% of Spanish GDP (Gross Domestic Product).
It is doubtful we’ll ever know what really made Sanchez crack. But local news reports of the situation provided a grim reminder of just how removed everyone is from the atheistic reality underlying the religious of real estate.
“Some experts believe that Spain needs to create a ‘bad bank’ where all the toxic real estate loans can be dumped, freeing the banks from their bad debts and enabling them to start lending again,” one news outlet reported with unabashed naivety and hope.
The “bad bank solution” is not unlike the solution you might find at the confessional. A mediator listens while you dump your toxicity on him, then offers up some regulatory suggestions before you walk away and get back to the business of sinning.
What happens to these “toxic loans” after they are “dumped” into the “bad bank” like a truckload of garbage? Where do they go? Who eventually pays? According to the cult of real estate those questions must be irrelevant, because not only are they never answered, they’re never even asked.
But we’re talking about debt here, and what is debt? It’s the fundamental tenet of a twisted religion in its own right, one basking in the black hole of nihilistic despair, or, as Joel Achenbach put it on his blog at the Washington Post, a mere theoretical possibility, hardly more than a hypothetical:
The great thing about debt is that it doesn’t have to be repaid until the future, which conceivably might not even happen. The future, remember, is just a theoretical possibility, hardly more than a hypothetical. The key characteristic of the future is that it hasn’t happened yet; thus by definition the arrival of the future is merely some probability less than 1.”
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/real-estate-economy-spain-greece-lending/index/a/26652
plg (241)-
Rutgers = state institution, talking the state’s book
Princeton = once home to Bergabe, a pinhead who has about the same amount of common sense as you
Anyone have any thoughts on Delaware?
Very inexpensive, very pretty seems to be quiet. Just wondering if anyone has spent any real time there.
I did notice it seems to be nascar country… not sure how well, or if I even could adapt.
meter (242)-
I think, on net, that the US is the most lawless place on Earth.
“I don’t know enough about Chile to comment, but I’m thinking South America is on net relatively lawless.”
#241 “NJ has a fine economy”
What fine economy? Pharma is dying in the state,a nd telecom is dead. What left, back office Wall St, nope, sorry they are leaving too.
Of course we do have the huge public sector.
BC
Orville Redenbacher—-
I’m long ConAgra
Was planning to buy in S. Jersey. After one year reading this blog, not only have I s-canned the NJ idea but am seriously considering avoiding the US altogether. A year ago I told my office that we were witnessing the economic story of a lifetime, akin to the GD. The younger ones laughed either because they couldn’t imagine things ever being different than they were for all their adult lives, or because econ 101 was not their strong suit (they’re all political wonks and liberal arts PhDs.) We are at serious risk of societial breakdown due to insane levels of debt. None of the rules apply anymore.
plg says:
February 4, 2010 at 11:24 am
All you free marketers should understand this. The market speaks for itself. NJ real estate, even with double the property tax bill, is worth more than real estate in PA. How do you all explain that demand?
plg: Disaster actually. It makes the state uncompetitive and will eventually blow a hole into the economy. You can also build the argument that the overcompensated public workforce has the unintended effect of housing inflation. If you rid the state of parasites, not only does it lower taxes, but it physically removes the parasites and housing can correct itself more quickly of distortions.
Hyde (249)-
Pardon my ignorance, but it seems to me like these guys are playing around with crap that might just end up blowing Switzerland and France off the face of the planet.
“#241 “NJ has a fine economy”
If by “fine” one means thin and not robust, I agree.
[219] meter
“Property taxes here are prohibitive. And I think it’s just a matter of time before they become the same in other states.”
One of the factors I use in potential nompound siting is property taxes. There are many factors, such as the structure of state taxes in general, availability of farmland or current use tax rates, the state’s debt load, and demographics (which is quite un-PC to consider but so what? Sue me).
All of these factors, and others, will allow me to project whether there will be upward pressure on property taxes, and whether it will be significant.
Ideally, I want a state with a broad tax structure (meaning less reliance on property taxes locally due to local aid), vast rural areas with a conservative populace, and few, if any, declining urban areas.
By that score, PA would be ideal if it didn’t have Philly and all those smaller declining manufacturing cities. ME and NH are much better, but NH is out because of overreliance on property taxes.
“only its not a real market, Govt financed and manipulated.”
T - You make it sound as if this “phenomenon” just started with the $8k tax credit. Govt has always been in and out of the markets. They are part of the market. In fact they are the market. Always have been. Theya re just being more visible this time to try and send a clear message.
I have news for you. They aint going away so that you and i can buy a house for $10k.
It is the ultimate irony to watch our diplomats and elected officials lecture other nations on corruption. Bribes are bad but the John Murtha International Airport is democracy at work in its purest form.
plg: maybe this photo captures the sentiment best…
http://www.flickr.com/photos/18175464@N00/2283451860
DL,
Ar you DoS or, “other government agencies”?
On the costa rica question,
Been there many times.
There is very high tension between the locals and the ex-pats. Particularly when you live behind your gates and they live in a shanty. You better be prepared to defend yourself because the costa rica government aint gonna help you.
Good news is that they also have non-existent property taxes!
“Me thinks there will be some very interesting news out of the Eurozone this weekend.”
Clot,
Well, either the currency markets are overreacting, capitulation in the crosses, or there is a s*itstorm coming. A 4% move, in a currency cross, is a mini crash.
It was always my contention that there would be a wicked storm in the currency markets, which could lead to a systemic collapse. Yes, there will be contagion. Is it today? Maybe, maybe not. That said, it’s coming.
Then again, how could anybody see this coming?
[246] freedy
“we have a budget expert this guy Rosen, saying that the wealth leaving NJ,, no problem; we tax income , not wealth.”
What does wealth generate?
And NJ does tax wealth, albeit indirectly.
I like this charming cottage:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/18175464@N00/2283451838/in/photostream/
Chi it has every parking get out of jail free tag in the windshield. Handicapped sticker, and a NJ State police shield
#267 - There is very high tension between the locals and the ex-pats
Well, that’s off the list then.
Who doesn’t hate `mericans?
“I think, on net, that the US is the most lawless place on Earth.”
I would have put money on that retort.
Histrionics aside, please be sure to report on your experiences with the ‘less lawless’ environment should you relocate to SA.
Shore: other.
I think we’ve just passed another mile marker on the highway to oblivion:
WATERFORD, Mich. (AP) - Officials say singer Wayne Newton owes a Detroit-area airport more than $60,000 after abandoning his plane more than three years ago and leaving it to gather mold.
Oakland County International Airport President Joe Borgesen says the plane once worth about $2 million was flown into the airport about 25 miles northwest of Detroit to have interior work done that took about a year to complete. He said Newton, who is known as “Mr. Las Vegas,” initially paid storage fees but then stopped.
Borgesen estimates moving the non-working plane would cost about $30,000.
A woman who answered the phone at Erin Miel Inc., the entertainment company owned by Newton, told The Oakland Press on Wednesday she is aware the plane is at the airport but provided no further information.
#263They aint going away so that you and i can buy a house for $10k.
Never said they were, but they have never paid people money to buy houses before,and there was never the level of gov’t intervention in the mtg market than there is now. That is a fact. Oh and lets not forget principal write downs, that ideas has not gone away you know. The gov is not letting the market clear and settle at it’s natural bottom, as happened in the past. That’s all I am saying.
tosh
if you are really going expat, then they key is to integrate yourself into the local community as much as possible.
That isnt done overnight.
I figured as much given your travels. I know your boss.
Hyde (277)-
That’s why you have to bring drugs, guns and money when you move in.
#267 because the costa rica government aint gonna help you.
Agreed. And the CR gov’t does not even have a standing army.
@262 - Nom:
Aren’t you better off heading out to the northwest (e.g. Montana, Wyoming)? It’s cold, but there is farming.
“One of the factors I use in potential nompound siting is property taxes. There are many factors, such as the structure of state taxes in general, availability of farmland or current use tax rates, the state’s debt load, and demographics (which is quite un-PC to consider but so what? Sue me).
All of these factors, and others, will allow me to project whether there will be upward pressure on property taxes, and whether it will be significant.
Ideally, I want a state with a broad tax structure (meaning less reliance on property taxes locally due to local aid), vast rural areas with a conservative populace, and few, if any, declining urban areas.
By that score, PA would be ideal if it didn’t have Philly and all those smaller declining manufacturing cities. ME and NH are much better, but NH is out because of overreliance on property taxes.”
Shump I thought it was Lawyers, guns and money.
RIP W. Zevon
http://www.flickr.com/photos/18175464@N00/2245426497/in/photostream/
Shore, when did you meet my wife?
Code Red: ref 90; There are parts of Bulgaria I prefer to NJ.
#277 - if you are really going expat, then they key is to integrate yourself into the local community as much as possible
Well, then CR is definitely out. I can barely integrate in NJ.
plg says:
February 4, 2010 at 1:47 pm
you guys don’t deal well with opposing points of view.
plg: your points were all beaten to death and summarily disproven multiple times on these threads between 2005-2008. Your commentary sounds really tone deaf here and also strains credulity.
AND I AM ONE OF THE ECONOMIC BULLS HERE!
@252 -
Not disputing any of that.
The upside for someone with cash is that Costa Brava real estate is doable.
Shump # 260 - Totally over my head as well. I am really psyched for my “FlasForward” though.
Re: 287 - not in the touristy section of course. The countryside is gorgeous.
“when did you meet my wife?”
Never before have truer words been uttered by a male.
Indeed!
we will pass 400 posts today easy.
I cant wait till the stock market tanks again. Thats when we start talking about canabilism recipes again.
chicagofinance,
What ideas of mine have been “disproven”?
I have stated a bunch of facts, cited to a bunch of studies and have a fairly moderate view on the NJ economy.
Ofcourse NJ has problems, but they are not all the result of the tax structure.
veto
mmmmmmm spicy long pig sausage. Goes well with sauerkraut too.
those kite surfers are sure tasty morsels.
We are thinking of relocating from NJ in about 10 years (at least for part of the year). But, we definitely will not be buying a residence. Much better to rent somewhere and we are open to living in certain parts of Europe or Latin America. I can speak a few languages. Frankly, I do not think I would feel at ALL comfortable doing this if I didn’t speak another language because then I wouldn’t have any way to fit in with the locals at all. Why do you feel you have to buy a residence and give up your freedom?
veto
Butchering the Human Carcass for Human Consumption
by Bob Arson
This is a step-by-step guide on how to break down the human body from the full figure into serviceable choice cuts of meat. As in any field, there are a number of methods to the practice, and you may wish to view this as a set of suggestions rather than concrete rules. You will notice that the carving of the larger or “commercial” cuts down into smaller specific or “retail” cuts will be only mentioned in passing, and not concentrated upon. Also, the use of human fat and viscera is generally avoided, and left only to the most experimental chef. These choices, along with recipes and serving suggestions, are nearly infinite in variety, and we leave them to you. We’ve found these guidelines to be simple and functional, but recognize that there is always room for improvement and we welcome your suggestions…..
http://74.125.93.132/search?q=cache:5VtgvYePSTQJ:www.churchofeuthanasia.org/e-sermons/butcher.html+long+pig+recipe&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a
65: While you were getting po’d at your neighbors, the banks already took it.
Why the hell should I pay for it.
pain (282)-
In a lawless place, what’s the value of a lawyer?
I think I don’t want to hear the answers to this.
Mr Hyde, Tosh:
to ingratiate with the local populace of Costa Rica, two words:
coffee plantation
“The gov is not letting the market clear and settle at it’s natural bottom, as happened in the past.”
toyne, i dont want to start a tit-for-tat petty argument so dont take this as an instigation. But i think govt intervention is an interesting force on the market so let me present this counter claim to your quote knowing full well that we are arguing something that prob doesnt have a ‘right’ answer.
This housing bust has already exceeded the price drops experienced from the 1988 bubble by more than 5% so technically govt has let the market clear like it has done in the past.
Secondly, you say the govt wont let this settle and clear at its ‘natural bottom’ but to me thats analogous to saying that the govt will never let the S&P 500 crash to its natural level because every time there is a slowdown in the economy, they go ahead and manipulate the market by lowering the interest rates.
My point is that the fed has way more tools than the three we learned about in our eco 101 classes.
hyde (297)-
This is the information that keeps me coming back here:
“The merits of keeping the skull as a trophy are debatable for two principal reasons. First, a human skull may call suspicious attention to the new owner. Secondly, thorough cleaning is difficult due to the large brain mass, which is hard to remove without opening the skull. The brain is not good to eat. Removing the tongue and eyes, skinning the head, and placing it outside in a wire cage may be effective. The cage allows small scavengers such as ants and maggots to cleanse the flesh from the bones, while preventing it being carried off by larger scavengers, such as dogs and children. After a sufficient period of time, you may retrieve the skull and boil it in a dilute bleach solution to sterilize it and wash away any remaining tissue.”
just an old rock tune shump, just an old rock tune.
How about chile con plg
I’m with Schump on #279
drugs, guns, and money
I’ll show you young’uns how to grow your own and roll ‘em.
#301 I don’t necessarily disagree with your analysis. I should have added that the gov’t is intervening in the real estate market, and attempting to intervence in other markets as well.
As far as real estate, it would have at this point decliend far more without the gov’t intervention. The difference between this and the bust last time? No free money to buy a house, and no Fed buying of mbs.
“I have stated a bunch of facts”
PLG, i may be one of the few people here today that doesnt want to rip into you. I think you made a few decent points, particularly about manhattan being expensive but desireable and how NJ may not take more of a price correction than other states. Also you made a decent argument for our train service.
However i think you have been sloppy about backing up your ‘facts’.
the consensus here dont take kindly to opposing views to begin with, especially when those views dont point directly to the apocolypse.
So if you are going to at least make a dent, you need to first share your ‘facts’ and the source with the board before you present your opinion and forecasts which are based on those facts.
For starters you can provide a shred of proof to your initial claim about NJ’s net migration.
#293 But they are not all the result of the tax structure.
If it’s not #1, than it is at elast in the top 3 for what is killing a once excellent state.
Every headline today states that jobless benefits rose unexpecteldy. What exactly is unexpected about jobless rising in an economic environment like this?
Veto,
I have cited, twice now, to studies done by Rutgers and Princeton which show that migration, although perhaps somewhat of a problem, is not a significant source of concern for NJ’s economy.
My whole point was that nj.com reported this current study as if it is the only authority on the subject, but the study itself points out the Rutgers and Princeton studies are more tempered concern over migration.
Secondl, I have pointed out that NJ transit is the third largest tranist system in the country.
Third, I have pointed out several national and international forces at play in the NJ economy, over which the State as almost no control. Healthcare costs, trade imbalances, growing disparities in wealth, the loss of high paying jobs etc These are problems NJ faces, but so does the rest of the country.
C’mon veto lets BBQ him. Granted I’m in the apocalypse camp but I can accept a well presented and ratinale argument if it is supported by facts. Not the were #1 stuff plg was spouting.
http://www.yelp.com/biz/pus$ycat-lounge-and-shogun-room-new-york
replace the $ with s
Here we go again.
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/108762/loan-repurchases-are-a-10-billion-problem-for-big-banks
well, I had a school admin that I know explain to me that small towns are getting the riff raff now because they can not expand and get new rateables, so the townies should not be suprised that the school system is going down and the welfare is coming in.
Not sure I follow….how do new rateables get you a better education and keep welfare out? Feels like a NJ public sector myth. “We must build and collect if we are to survive.”
“Third, I have pointed out several national and international forces at play in the NJ economy, over which the State as almost no control. Healthcare costs, trade imbalances, growing disparities in wealth, the loss of high paying jobs etc These are problems NJ faces, but so does the rest of the country.”
Just because 49 other people are drowning in the same storm does not mean that one should NOT try to stay afloat by lightening one’s load.
also, it was implied that the low prop taxes of this town was part of the problem, its just too affordable. NJ is done.
plg (118)
Maybe the transportation system is great. If so, they should privatize it and let users pay for the opportunity to use it. There’s no logical argument for cross subsidizing that asset by taxing the rich.
All of these arguments about how attractive NJ may be to live in has nothing to do with the state taking advantage of this to feed off the people who live here.
Using your line of argument, one could have told Thomas Jefferson to stuff the Declaration op Independence in his pipe, because the colonies have great job opportunities, good weather and farming, good location so take those English taxes, abrogations of individual rights and like them. Your king (president, governor, mayor) knows best and you should just be their loyal servant.
These are problems NJ faces, but so does the rest of the country.
And we face these problems along with out of control taxes.
And how does NJ Transit help the state when almost it’s entire focus is carting people to and from NYC, yet within the state it’s effect is minimal.
And how do you adress the fact that our municipalities are having their ratings downgraded faster than any other state.
You seem to be of the opinion that if only this international crisis/recession was solved, NJ could get back to it’s out of control taxation and spending addiction.
toyne,
Like a giant game of financial whack a mole.
#315 Riff raff? The only problem with that now, is the people who might have moved to a town to avoid the riff raff, now find themselves being the riff raff becasue they can no longer afford the property taxes.
#315
this goes to the heart of NJ problems. Its all about segregating but now its biting the weller-to-do in the aZZ, the white blue collar or lower mid that was fooled into thinking they had wealth. The truly rich will be fine, but I just loved the logic put forth in the name of public job survival.
plg,
i am trying to help you.
309 reads like a clusterfck of fourty different ideas. Lets take a step back.
You are saying that Rutgers/Princeton Studies present a different picture of migration’s effect on the NJ economy?
it would help if you started by providing the link to those studies and present a few key quotes that supported your claims?
And then if that goes ok, then you can go into your healthcare wealth disaprities and other contentious claims but you are on your own for that because those topics are sure to get you body slammed.
http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_oly_experts__6/ept_sports_oly_experts-416916678-1265247935.jpg?ym_q7nCDdBbCaf8G
As good a reason as any to watch the olympics.
#320 True. School budget time this April should be very interesting.
Captain Renault: I’m shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here
In the Pinnacle case, FINRA said the company gave foreign customers direct online access to U.S. capital markets, with virtually no intervention by the firm.
Nearly all of the firm’s customers, including foreign financial institutions, reside in overseas jurisdictions known for a high degree of money-laundering risk, as classified by the U.S. Department of State, FINRA said.
These foreign financial institutions opened sub-accounts for foreign customers who could then direct activity without fully disclosing their identity.
http://www.securitiesindustry.com/news/-24610-1.html
Looks like John is gonna be breaking out his “Dow 10,000″ hat again soon.
dont look now, the S&P is lower than before. its a meltdoooowwwwwwwwnnnnnn…
hyde, did you get those cannible recipe books from amazon or martha stewart.com?
Wow, I am not hearing any facts or rational arguments in response.
Toyne says, “And how does NJ Transit help the state when almost it’s entire focus is carting people to and from NYC, yet within the state it’s effect is minimal.”
You have to be kidding me? Carting people to and from New York and Philly keeps NJ citizens employed and paying income taxes and spending the money earned in those cities in NJ.
Shore guy says, “Just because 49 other people are drowning in the same storm does not mean that one should NOT try to stay afloat by lightening one’s load.”
My point is that since 49 other states are having these problems, this is not the result of the NJ tax structure or government structure. It is the result of national and internaitonal forces. We have to address these problems, but lets not blame it on state workers.
A west says,
“Using your line of argument, one could have told Thomas Jefferson to stuff the Declaration op Independence in his pipe, because the colonies have great job opportunities, good weather and farming, good location so take those English taxes, abrogations of individual rights and like them. Your king (president, governor, mayor) knows best and you should just be their loyal servant.”
You are aware that the declaration of independence and the break from England was over “taxation without representation,” not taxation? We live in a democracy. The Governore is not a King, he is elected. Christie was popularly elected. Your analogy makes no sense.
I see a lot of self-congratulatory language thrown around and big talk about about BBQing me, but very little substance to back any of that crap up. Your arguments lack support and logic, so ease up with the tough talk!
I sure am, just threw all in 401K for next check. I love the smell of a earthquake in the morning.
Shore she wins one gold she is going to be wealthy. Met her a couple of years ago at a WC event in whistler she is very likable and the pictures do not do her justice. Natural beauty. I don’t even like skiing, I’m a knuckle dragging snow boarder!
veto (306)-
This plg has got to be pret. You’ll never pin him down. Every time you think you’ll both be speaking to the same point, he’ll backtrack/obfusc@te/back away from something he’s already said.
toyne (312)-
The sewers (Phony, Fraudy, Ginnie) are full, so the worst of the sewage backwashes to whence it came.
Not projecting too much snow for Northern NJ but Southern NJ is going to get hit hard.
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 12 TO 18 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE
DELAWARE AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY COAST WITH UP TO 24 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE CENTRAL DELMARVA.
of course the weather is really unpredictable so storm could head this way or out to sea.
babs (313)-
But everybody knows the kids in the best districts have the best drugs.
#317 toyne
njtransit does an excellent job of moving illegal aliens from their boarding house to the restaurants/homes/landscaping they work at.
“I see a lot of self-congratulatory language thrown around and big talk about about BBQing me, but very little substance to back any of that crap up.”
plg, This is worse than what happened to freedy and that was a free for all. But even he had some friends pulling for him so i guess its not even a comparison.
link please.
I don’t want to be thought of as riff-raff.
I want to be thought of as lethal.
plg says:
February 4, 2010 at 3:39 pm
Wow, I am not hearing any facts or
rational arguments in response.
plg: I have to leave. My silence should not be construed as a tacit acceptance of your points. In a brief comment, your points are all out of context. NJ built itself on the basis of being a less expensive option which was business friendly. It managed to create an environment that was the basis of the telecommunications and pharma industries. Now Jersey is more expensive in almost all facets, and further the core industries that are the lifeblood of the state: telecom, pharma, financials…are in secular decline…..Trenton doesn’t understand that the water pressure in the hose if tapped too much goes down…it take the water for granted…..and you speak in absolutes and without context, so you claims can be true, but only in the most specious and superfluous sense.
[281] meter
Absolutely, and proximity to one of the ski areas would be ideal.
But land in proximity to rec areas already expensive, and then there are water issues. Lot of grazing going on but not a lot of farming.
As the nompound concept is morphing into multiple properties, that is an option, but I think I would pick someplace in Canada over Wyo/Mont.
Veto if PLG doesn’t recognize tongue in cheek humor after a cannibal butchering guide is posted he is beyond hope.
Definately the return of Pret, or son of pret. where is booya bob when you need him.
Veto (326)-
What, you never saw Martha’s recipe for severing and bleaching human heads?
“This plg has got to be pret. You’ll never pin him down.”
Schump, at first i thought you might be right. So i went back and read some of his posts and now im thinking it might be frank.
Veto:
I cited to the actual study three times now. It begins by summarizing the conclusions of the Rutgers and Princeton studies, both of which conclude that the migration issue is over-blown and, although it may be a problem, is not a signficant source of concern.
http://www.cfnj.org/news/Wealth-Migration-Study-February-2010.pdf
#327You have to be kidding me? Carting people to and from New York and Philly keeps NJ citizens employed and paying income taxes and spending the money earned in those cities in NJ.
Ah duh, I know that. You missed my point entirely. NJ Transit/The State should be developing internally as well, so that people can travel within the state via the use of mass transportation. It’s sole mandate should not be carting people back and forth to NYC and Philly. I pointed out to you the fact that traveling from Mahwah to Hackensack takes over 1 hour for a trip of 10 miles via NJ transit. Don’t you fiond that ironic at all??
[329] pain
“I don’t even like skiing, I’m a knuckle dragging snow boarder!”
Pretty darn articulate for a boarder.
Note that the Comrade Nom Deplume sock will be silent next week (unless I get periodic net access) as I will be in Utah, skiing (not boarding!).
http://www.moremortgagemeltdown.com/download/pdf/T2_Partners_presentation_on_the_mortgage_crisis.pdf
T2 Partners presentation of the mortgage crisis and where we are headed. Very lengthy…..
[322] shore
Lindsay Vonn.
Yow.
As good an advertisement for Spandex as I have seen in awhile.
Veto (341)-
Frank is too retarded to be able to persist with that pretian, mealy-mouthed way of talking in circles and saying nothing.
Thanks Nom, I was in Park City last year had a blast. hope you have the same. the Canyons were great, wife had a great time at Alta for obvious reasons I could not go.
Where is the Dow 10K part hat?
I have wore this hat several times already in the last few years
You can blend in with all the GS relocations in Park City.
“both of which conclude that the migration issue is over-blown and, although it may be a problem, is not a signficant source of concern.”
Here plg, let me do your homework for you and provide the quotes that you should have presented before you decided to make friends with everyone here.
First i think you are wrong in your interpretation of the Rutgers study. It clearly states in the summary that “the state is experiencing a net outflow of residents that takes a large toll on the state’s economy.”
Also, more importantly, notice how neither of these are presented as fact. It’s prob not a good idea for you to not present them as such either.
“The first report in the series, “Where Have All the Dollars Gone?” documented research conducted at the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University in October of 2007. The Rutgers report focused on the loss of income and skills due to net out-migration, and it concluded that New Jersey’s economy is “strong
and well balanced.” Nevertheless, the state is experiencing a net outflow of residents that takes a large toll on the state’s economy. The Rutgers report details a loss of $453.5 million in revenue and suggests that the out-migrants “have been either pushed out or
pulled to elsewhere in the country – pushed by high costs of living (especially housing), high taxes, and congestion, or pulled by greater private-sector job opportunities and lower housing and living costs in other states.”
The second in the series of reports, “Trends in New Jersey Migration: Housing, Employment, and Taxation,” documented research conducted at The Policy Research
Institute for the Region at Princeton University in September of 2008. The Princeton report also focused on the loss of income and skills due to net out-migration of individuals. However, it concluded that, “the economic impact of migration is ambiguous.” Unlike the report from Rutgers the report from Princeton contends that workers are migrating from the state but the jobs are not. The Princeton report suggests that the over-crowded Garden State might be experiencing some benefits from the migration as the migration opens opportunities for unemployed residents. The Princeton report does concede that net migration loss is a valid trend in New Jersey with negative effects on the state’s economy, but suggests that the negative effect might be less than previously predicted.”
Back to real estate…
Dream Big: Montclair Fixer-Upper For $200K
Now about the house… Inhabited just a year ago, the bungalow has generated a ton of calls, says ReMax listing agent Maha Kapageridis. Originally listed at $299, each price reduction has prompted new interest from builders, investors, first-time buyers, and even a young budding architect who sees this as a dream project. (BUT APPARENTLY NO SALE)
In the yard is a ramshackle one-car detached garage which only deserves to be greeted by a bulldozer.
“There’s a sagging beam in the living room to replace, but otherwise the building is sound,” says Kapageridis.
http://www.baristanet.com/realestate/2010/04/montclair_homes_for_sale_fixer_upper.php
On another note, China ETF is down 5% today, down 15% ytd. Is this the bursting bubble that everyone is talking about?
#254 As a Nascar fan, it’s actually one of the easier sports to follow. You only have to follow around 20 to 25 drivers thar are competitive. They don’t require 80 tattoos per body part. It’s on mostly Sunday afternoons, some Saturday nights and they take Easter and Mother’s day off…….
Looks like “Ben B” will have to get together with “Tim G” and print about Ten Trillion Dollars to buy Stock and bail out Wall Street, which is Too big To Fail. “O” will also make it a Crime to save money in anything but Equities.
352. Gator
what’s the real market value of the lot alone?
Hyde, you seem to know alot about the water crisis in america. Did you read this?
http://www.ordering1.us/bloombergbooks/product.php?sid=1&ccamp=RETAIL&pid=353
Gator, my educated guess is that 130k is the magic number to buy and do it right. Still at 130k not much of a flip imo, but a decent first home.
“Dream Big: Montclair Fixer-Upper For $200K”
I’m thinking they could easily get an extra $50k for this listing if they simply wiped the feces off the wall with a wet rag.
Nom,
Check out the back bowl at Snowbird.
If you see pieces of my right ankle sweep em up and fly them back.
Thanks.
Tough call Barbara. That’s not a desireable neighborhood by any means. If you look in the Monmouth County DB, there are 02/03 sales on that block (with smaller lots)for under $200k.
Market peak the lot and improvement are assessed at $334,000 with the land being assessed at $243,900. There’s no way they could get that now.
NJGator, forgot to ask about the hood. Big difference.
re: #344 - Comrade
Skiing or are really looking to get a deal on one these at a government auction?
http://standeyo.com/NEWS/06_Religion/06_Religion_pics/060310.FLDS.compound.jpg
OMG — When a realtor says
“There’s a sagging beam in the living room to replace, but otherwise the building is sound,” says Kapageridis
Run the other way….fast.
“There’s a Thumb-sized hole in the dyke, but otherwise we be high & dry”
BC
Many thanks.
[363] juice box
Yeah, you got me. I’m going LDS (good one, BTW).
The YFZ compound is roughly the right idea, but I am thinking more along the lines of cohesive community rather than strategic hamlets. Theoretically, we won’t need a perimeter wall. Long sight lines for observation posts should suffice.
Pant up demand on the ground!
Pant up demand on the ground!
Looking like a fool with your pant up demand on the ground!
“There’s a sagging beam in the living room”
Its located between the buckled walls just above the cracked foundation.
you know. a fixer upper.
[363]
Skiiing at Canyons and Park City. Heard Brighton Bowl was popular with the locals, but we’ll see. I can’t see my legs holding out for more than 4 days during the week.
Zieba, any bone bits I find, I’ll send over.
I would avoid Western Europe. I lived in Italy for about 18 months and the cost of living is very high. I don’t know how people afford their electric bills. We are now in Germany and bought a place here for about 310,000 Euro. Pretty expensive and you also have some bad winter weather (this year at least). At least the utility bills here are lower. Europe has the same problems as the US. It is just taking a little longer to take effect over here.
[348] pain
Was there last year too.
Why couldn’t you go to Alta? I thought only Deer Valley kept the riff-raff out?
Veto 357
No, sounds like it might some good info though.
And veto,
here is a recipe for plg incase you didnt have a human barbaque recipe handy:
Ingredients:
* One cleanly slain Human, approx. 90-100lbs dressed weight (heavier bodies may require additional time)
* Hickory wood (apple wood or a combination may also work quite well)
* 3 qt Water
* 3/4 c Salt
* 2 ts Red pepper
* 2 ts Black pepper
* 1 1/2 c Vinegar
* Barbecue Sauce
Directions:
First, if it has not already been dressed, prepare the carcass: Suspend the body by either pairing and tying limbs with rope or twine and attaching these to a horizontal beam, or by inserting meathooks into each ankle via a cut behind the Achilles Tendon.
Completely bleed carcass by making a deep incision across the neck from one ear to the other. Be sure to raise the rest of the body above the point of incision so that gravity is allowed to pull out all the blood; this may be aided by repeated compression of the abdomen. Approximately six liters of blood should be removed through this method; discard carefully.
Remove head by continuing already started incision around the entire neck and twisting and/or slicing to separate the head from the spinal cord.
Gut corpse by cutting from the solar plexus to a point near the anus, carefully avoiding the intestines. Cut around the anus and tie it off with twine. Using a saw, cut through the pubic bone. It should now be possible to remove the anus and all abdominal organs by pulling and cutting as necessary. Take care not to cut into organs of the digestive system, as they may contaminate the flesh (clean thoroughly if this happens). Cut through the diaphragm to reveal and remove chest organs and any remaining blood vessels.
Remove feet and lower portion of arms by cleanly cutting around and separating the ankle and elbow joints. Removing all hair at this point is suggested. (enth notes that pork factories do this with flash heating; if a little surface charring is tolerable (roasting it in the pit will char it anyway), try taking a propane torch to the skin, or employ some similar method of burning off the surface hair.) Saw backbone in order to lay body spread eagle while roasting.
Prepare fire pit by digging a hole in solid ground approximately 1 to 1.5 feet deep, 3.5 feet wide and 6 feet long, tapering out at either end. Fill the pit with hickory twigs and burn until dry. Form, light, and maintain a second fire near the pit for use as a source of coals during the cooking process.
Combine water, salt, pepper, and vinegar to form a brine. Suspend body, spread-eagle and meat side down, over pit using iron rods, bed springs, or a heavy hog wire mesh. Roast very slowly over a period of 10-16 hours, or until the internal temperature of the meat reaches 170 degrees Farenheit. Once cooking has begun, cover with metal roofing sheet or other heat-tolerant material in order to retain heat and distribute smoke. While roasting, occasionally baste meat with the brine and add coals as needed. Coals should be limited so that grease does not drip and ignite; these flames should be smothered with a shovel to prevent charing or burning. During the last 5-8 hours, turn the body over, skin side down, and collect fat that may accumulate around the ribs and shoulders. This can be solidified and stored as lard for later use.
Once the meat has reached 170 degrees, remove from pit (or remove coals) and smother with barbecue sauce. Proceed to chop off pieces of meat (1/2 to 1 pound per serving) and enjoy! There should be enough meat to feed a small to moderately sized group of people; approximately 12-24 servings.
I’m both appalled and fascinated at the same time.
Pretty much like every other day of my life lately.
Gotta figure the beverage suggestion for Human BBQ is Knob Creek…
Fox Business Video:
Time to Walk Away from Your Home?
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=289004&cl=17975525&src=finance&ch=1316259
From that video:
Half of the mortgage loans in nevada are underwater by 25% or more.
The Volcker Rule is dead. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704259304575043593510790062.html#articleTabs%3Darticle?mod=mktw
Hyde, thanks but it doesnt say whether to eat the skin or not.
Disturbingly, the first thing I could think about about two paragraphs into post 372 was blood sausage.
Mmmmmm… kaszanka… best enjoyed with some fried onions a slice of rye bread and a cold home brew.
Clot
Did you pull the trigger on SRS the other day?
Nice move.
gap down tomorrow?
Got to admit, a stock market crash is definately a guilty pleasure.
Shore,
Isn’t this on your short list?
http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2010/01/26/greathomesanddestinations/0127grenada2_index.html?ref=greathomesanddestinations
383. Nothing says rugged individualism like a pastel castle.
374. Your pathology would be frowned upon in the Bluegrass State. Real men eat venison not their neighbors. Just sayin.
well how many homes in NJ are underwater
and what’s trenton going to do to help
the taxpayers out?
“What a difference a day makes. European sovereigns implode, and hedge funds of every race, gender, stripe, color, and ethnic origin hits the “dump button” on risk assets and immediately flee back to dollars and bonds.
Not just the wildebeests. Everyone.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/its-hunker-down-time
left (380)-
With my kinder, gentler machine gun hand.
Thanks.
Not too late to join the SRS party. Look at this tasty little chunk:
http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:EDZ
389,389,389 Do I hear 390? 390!!!
Do I hear 400? 400, 400, 400….
386.freedy says:
February 4, 2010 at 5:17 pm
well how many homes in NJ are underwater
and what’s trenton going to do to help
the taxpayers out?
Part 1: If NJ is representative of nationwide statistics, 25%. I think it’s less than that, likely 12-15% given the relative regional severity of the declines.
Part 2: If there was any justice in teh world - nothing. Call it triage: you don’t transfuse a corspe. I think anyone who default should have a scarlet “D” on their credit history and not be loaned a dime of government insured money for the full 10 years it stays on their credit record.
“But that’s just me. What do I know?”
-Dennis Miller
More lip service…applied to “banker’s” backside.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704259304575043593510790062.html#articleTabs%3Darticle?mod=mktw
A lot of discussion of how New Jersey is turning into upstate New York. The process has shown that the only people that comfortably own houses are and will be state and municipal employees of some sort with a smattering of the uber rich and heaps of proles to take/seize the dwellings not worthy of the other two classes (with future government assistance of course).
upstate NY? take a ride to paterson/dover/elizabeth/trenton/camden/
newark/irvington/passaic/garfield/
lodi/
not only are we upstate, we’re like a foreign country.
ridgewood jewerly files a BK,, high
end can’t happen. not in Bergen County
whats going on over there.not spending
20k a pop.
Now B.O. is releasing info on the Christmas bomber that is helping the enemy. How we end up getting such great ‘leaders’ is beyond me.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/02/04/bond-scolds-administration-revealing-abdulmutallabs-cooperation/
Ket
Thanks for the website, I think.
Guess I won’t be running for public office any time soon.
I get three of the four pillars, how does that fourth one work in?
Best quote:
“We personally prefer firm caucasian females in their early twenties. These are “ripe”. But tastes vary, and it is a very large herd. “
leftwing, I maintain the same position I have for almost 3 years now. Gold is a buy as long as it is under $1500.
Leftwing
Someone cant get pregnant if you stick to the dirt road…..
We moved from FL to NJ in 2006. We love NJ more than FL. This is a more vibrant place than FL and alot of smart people around us. Both of us foreign born, and we feel very comfortable in NJ. In my company’s meeting, there are at least 4 or 5 different nationalities at table, speaking all flavor of english. Frequently, I found myself is the only one without a PhD at lunch with a group of my colleagues. We found more things to do at night than FL. And pizza is better, too.
Even better, we sold our houses at peak in FL. I am low balling a couple places. Just enjoying the fun of it. I am not leaving because of high tax, since my pay is keeping up. if not, I will move where there is job. FL has far fewer good paying jobs. I will retire there though, may be in 30 years.
400…
i need a nap
sl
watching Charlie Rose Hank Paulson interview. apparently these guys are friends so lots of softball questions and picture this: Hank Paulson praying.
what BS
400. Been there too. Apt description. Horrible job market there. Bad pay.
Clickity Clack…..Slide the Rack Back
Bob,
Thanks for the technical insight. Plz keep me posted. Wire going out tomorrow. Public is catching on.
Teacher pension fund lost $9 billion last year while costs rose
by Kim Gittleson
In Albany this week, UFT President Michael Mulgrew floated a plan to save the city money by letting teachers retire earlier. But a new report on the health of the city’s teachers pension fund suggests that Mulgrew’s proposal would only compound the fund’s potentially crippling budget crunch.
Take the pain Disneyland losers. I love it when the clown shoe knocks out a government tit sucker.
Hyde (399)-
If that’s true, then how did Frank happen?
“Someone cant get pregnant if you stick to the dirt road…”
#407 Clot,
I have an idea. NSFW
http://www.chinasmack.com/stories/shanghai-man-survives-suicide-jump-blowup-sex-doll/
Ben [398},
I agree. I was pointing out short term technical zones.
Technicals are short term, fundamentals are long term, insurance is never day to day.
Has anyone heard about State Farm Insurance saying that it would stop writing Florida homeowners insurance after the Florida Insurance commissioner rejected the rate increase of 47.1% for State Farm homeowners insurance in Florida?
Via ASCAP:
http://www.alternet.org/rights/145485/5_ways_techno-gadgetry_is_bringing_out_the_worst_in_humanity
Better watch out Clot. First they target Americans overseas, next Branchburg:
http://www.alternet.org/world/145543/top_intel_officer%3A_u.s._may_kill_americans_abroad
Shore 410 - Yup. Heard they were going to cancel 125,000 policies in FL.
125m? Egads!
Gator,
Get a fixer upper and invite all of your blog friends over for a do-it-yourself “extreme makeover.”
I can plaster, sand, and paint.
Shore 414 - I wonder if they will all go into the state insurance pool. The state will be broke after the next hurricane season.
Montclair revises school admission criteria
In the first major revision since the criteria were created more than three decades ago, the Board of Education has updated the admissions process for students attending its magnet public schools.
The move came in a unanimous vote during the board’s meeting this past Monday night and concluded more than 18 months of study and planning by a School Integration Task Force. Assisting the process has been the Kirwan Institute for the Study of Race and Ethnicity at the Ohio State University and pro bono legal review by the Skadden Arps law firm.
“It’s the first major restructuring of the admissions criteria since the founding of the magnet schools some 30-plus years ago,” said Schools Superintendent Frank Alvarez.
“We hope the revisions will help us achieve a balance that will allow us to comply with the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision and still remain true to the spirit of Montclair’s original school desegregation plan that created our current magnet schools,” said Alvarez, referring to a 2007 Supreme Court ruling.
This judicial decision bars public school districts from classifying students by the race of the individual child, but does permit schools to “devise race-conscious measures to address the problem in a general way.”
Under the plan adopted by the board, Montclair School District officials will phase out a child’s race as one of the five criteria utilized to determine to which public school Montclair elementary and middle school students will be assigned.
The district instead will divide Montclair into three separate geographic districts and select an equal number of students from each district for admission to each school. The plan is designed to give each school a mix of students of different racial and social economic backgrounds.
In addition to the new districts, district officials will continue to consider four existing criteria that include parental choice, sibling preferences, English as Second Language services and students requiring Special Education services in determining where students are assigned.
http://www.northjersey.com/news/83519152_Admissions_policy_revised.html
Plg,
I’m a long-time reader of this blog and pretty rare poster. But this ongoing debate you’re having with the board piqued my curiosity about your arguments and, even more so, about the sources you posted that supposedly support your arguments. My curiosity about your source stemmed from several statements you’ve made in prior posts that just didn’t sit right with me. But let’s go over some things I found in your source:
Pg.8 Migration Based on CPS - Table 2
There has been a gradual general net migration of households from the
northeast to all other regions, particularly to the southern regions of the country. Wealth holders have followed this general pattern and the net wealth that has left the northeast has increased the wealth in all regions of the country, with a concentration in the south.
3. There has been an extensive net inflow of households to the northeast from abroad. Nearly a third of these households are headed by persons who were U.S. citizens when they arrived. The remaining two thirds were not citizens when they entered the United States. In the last 5 years there were more households migrating from Asia into the North East than from any other
continent, including Europe, and North America.
Heck I could have told you this based on tennis and thai food. . .
Pg.8 Migration Based on ACS Data
“In the past 5 years there has been net out flow of households
from New Jersey to all regions of the country with a concentration to the south. Wealth holders have followed the same pattern. The net wealth that left New Jersey has resulted in modest increases in wealth in all other regions of the country again with a concentration in the south.”
Pg. 10 Reduction of Wealthy Households Moving To New Jersey This heading says it all… The entire section is worth a read.
Pg. 10 Characteristics of Migrating Households ACS Data- Table 4
“Table 4 contains social and economic characteristics of households migrating into and out of New Jersey based on data from the ACS for 2004 through 2008. . . Although their household income is higher, their wealth and the expected giving pattern is lower than the out-migrating households. Since a considerable fraction migrated from foreign countries the in-migrants are less likely to be citizens and less likely to have been born in New Jersey.
Conclusion
“Our analysis indicates that in recent years wealth has been leaving New Jersey in larger amounts than wealth has been entering the state due to household migration.
and here’s the good part . .
“Part of the change reflected a general increase in households moving out of the Northeast, including wealthy households. Comparisons with New York and Connecticut imply that the shift in New Jersey was larger and likely involved factors idiosyncratic to New
Jersey. The pattern is clear and if the trend continues it will have a significant accumulative impact.
How does this study even remotely support your position? This study supports what most of the regular posters have been saying for quite some time now.
Sure our economic problems are larger than NJ. But that doesn’t mean that this state isn’t throwing considerable water into an already burning oil fire.
Roadtripboy,
Thank you for taking the time to respond in a reasoned way. I think somewhere along the way, my argument was misconstrued. The study you cite to does not support my argument. I never said it did. I said it cites two other studies that support my argument. It contradicts the two previous studies by Rutgers and Princeton Universities.
The study you cite is a study of wealth. The Princeton and Rutgers studies studies are of income, an important distinction.
I agree wealth is leaving NJ. It is inevitable because retirees, with a lifetime of savings, are retiring to places like florida and arizona. No doubt.
My point is that the problem is overstated. First, NJ taxes income not wealth, so the loss of wealth isn’t that problematic for tax receipts. The homes these retirees are leaving are being sold to new families who pay the property taxes still. So clearly the new families do not have wealth, they have imcome. They don’t have a lifetime of savings to run to florida. They are new families starting out with jobs, using the schools and paying taxes.
Although Id rather that “wealth” stay in NJ, this is not particularly troubling if you ask me. It is troubling to charities, who commissioned the study because they rely on wealth instead of income. But wealth is generally passive income invested in annuities, stocks and other investments and don’t contribute to NJ’s economy. Income does contribute.
I agree it is not ideal to have people leaving, but the study overstates the problem.
For anyone interested in the Princeton study here is the link: http://www.princeton.edu/prior/PRIOReconomy-Final-%282%29.pdf
Here is the summary of that study:
“This study provides an empirical analysis of recent migration into and out of New Jersey. We focus on the social and demographic characteristics of migrants in order to inform public policy. While New Jersey has much to do to ensure the future vitality of the state and its residents, the state’s ability to attract and retain a highly educated and highly compensated workforce remains strong.”