From the NY Times:
Dry Your Eyes and Lower the Price
NEVER in all his 17 years selling real estate has Mark Seiden gone through as many boxes of tissues as he has in the past 12 months.
It’s not he who is crying, but some of his customers — as they come to grips with the reality that their houses are worth far less in today’s market than what they had hoped, said Mr. Seiden, who owns Mark J. Seiden Real Estate in Briarcliff Manor.
But the sooner a seller faces reality on prices, he said, the sooner a sale can occur. As evidence, he cited Susan and Robert Whiting of Ossining, whose six-bedroom three-bath 1950s Cape had languished six months at $499,000 before they hired him. “At that price, nothing happened,” said Mrs. Whiting, a day care provider. “We didn’t even have one reasonable offer.”
The first thing Mr. Seiden did was brandish the tissues and recommend a listing price of $60,000 less. “At first I was in shock,” Mrs. Whiting said. “But then I decided if we wanted to sell, this is what we better do.” A bidding war ensued, and some weeks later the house went into contract at $10,000 over the list price.
…
In the Ossining/Briarcliff market in 2009, homeowners received about 94 percent of their asking prices, according to Mr. Seiden. But he said the actual percentage was probably even lower, as the official one was calculated using the most recent listing price — very likely reduced from the original.
…
Mr. Nadler cited another Larchmont example: a three-bedroom two-bath prewar condo listed at $1.2 million whose owners “needed to be convinced” to drop the price. After generating only weak interest and unacceptable offers, they finally agreed to lower the price to $999,000 and then to $985,000. At that point, Mr. Nadler said, “the floodgates opened.” It sold for close to the final asking price, he said.
…
The first impression also still counts, which is why Richard and Marilyn Wishnie of Briarcliff Manor employed a home stager to help market their four-bedroom two-and-a-half-bath 1960s colonial.“The stager said to us, ‘Come with me to the front door and look at your house the way a buyer might,’ ” recalled Mr. Wishnie, a former county legislator. They did, and subsequently spent $2,500 to remove old wallpaper in the kitchen, replace carpeting in one bedroom and retile the floor in the front entrance.
…
But it was pricing that may ultimately have turned the tide in their favor. They listed the house at about $619,000 — far less than they had originally hoped — but it sold quickly, for $10,000 over asking. “We knew this was the worst possible time to try and sell a house, but it all worked out,” Mr. Wishnie said.
…
That a well-priced property will sell more quickly is not a new concept. “That’s true in boom years, too,” Mr. Mercurio said, “although that applies more than ever now.”
Frist!
does this mean that Bergen County home sellers are off the mark? I thought
BC homes never, ever lose value
From Reuters:
More generations living under same roof
Demand is escalating for multi-generational housing as buyers scale down during the deepest housing crisis since the Great Depression, according to a survey by Coldwell Banker Real Estate in Parsippany, New Jersey.
Thirty-seven percent of the company’s real estate agents polled in January said that in the past year, buyers were increasingly shopping for homes that fit more than one generation. Almost 70 percent of the agents said they expect economic conditions will drive still greater demand for this type of housing over the next year.
“More buyers are pooling investments, considering bringing mom and dad into it,” said Diann Patton, a Coldwell Banker real estate consumer specialist based in Grass Valley, California, in an interview with Reuters.
Buyers were primarily driven by financial concerns when deciding to combine generations in a household, the survey found. Health concerns were the second most common reason and strong family bonds a distant third.
i know of a situation where the adult
45 years old is moving back in with the
70 year parents., several children involved.
Sad situation., I think we will be seeing
more of this .
Schump,
For you daughter, ever consider U of Rochester? I think they had out some $$ for lacrosse players.
3 grim
“…strong family bonds a distant third.”
That’s going to work out well…
“NEVER in all his 17 years selling real estate has Mark Seiden gone through as many boxes of tissues as he has in the past 12 months”
Are tissues the next bubble?
What’s going to happen to those 2 story great rooms in Mcmansions? I was thinking if a mcmansion gets turned into a boarding house, those great rooms would make a great gym. Plenty of room to set up a basketball hoop, maybe play racquetball too.
Grim: does this mean the spring selling
season is troubled?
By the way I have it on strong authority the world is going to end on October 10, 2010. I guy from some biblical joint was waving a sign in Chinatown yesterday with that on it so it must be true.
Why a nut job like that would show up at a Chinese New Year parade is another issue.
grim (3)-
Came across a 3 BR ranch in Raritan yesterday that’s been turned into an illegal boarding house. Must be 15 people in it.
I didn’t even try to enter. Let the sheriff sort it out when it FK’s.
nomad (5)-
Thanks for the idea. Daughter is shooting for D-1 right now, but you never know. Lots of times, D-3 schools cough up the most money.
I will put it on her list.
safe (10)-
What if that guy is God?
#13 Schumpeter,
Would that explain why he looked so happy?
I’m changing my call. Oblivion is much too sunny a prognosis.
My updated prediction is for final doom.
“We are buying JGBs in order to inject ample funds into financial markets in a stable manner and we are buying Y21.6 trillion of JGBs annually” and he made it clear that adjusting for scale differences, the Japanese monetization program is three times faster than the Fed’s Treasury QE – in other words assume that Japan has bought the equivalent of nearly $1 trillion of its own bonds, adjusted for something or another.
And rising the specter of Richard Koo, Shirakawa also added that excess liquidity alone would be insufficient, saying that new initiatives from the government and the private-sectors would be needed to generate new demand.
The US and Japan… soon China and the ECB – why all the concerns about who will buy each other’s sovereign debt? In a few months each central bank will purchase every single piece of paper printed by respective Treasury departments. Remember – whoever devalues last, loses.
And as all this is happening, Goldman’s pundits repeat every five minutes that China will inflate the yuan… just because, you know, it doesn’t really need to export any more.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/if-us-can-do-it-so-can-we-japan-keep-pumping-cash-and-monetizing-debt-until-deflation-goes-a
#12 – cousins daughter was offered full ride there.
She decided on another school – did not play lacrosse and missed it bit time.
Anyone on this board own the Honda Crosstour or have friends who do? If so, any comments pro or con appreciated.
Thanks,
Citigroup Warns Customers It May Refuse To Allow Withdrawals
The image of banks locking their doors to keep customers from making withdrawals during a bank run is what immediately came to mind when we heard that Citigroup was telling customers it has the right to prevent any withdrawals from checking accounts for seven days.
http://www.prisonplanet.com/citigroup-warns-customers-it-may-refuse-to-allow-withdrawals.html
“Unlike 2003 through 2006 where credit expanded rapidly in housing followed by another year of massive amounts of commercial real estate lending, the Fed’s efforts to reflate have done next to nothing.
This is what happens in a deflationary cycle where the problem is too much debt and too many malinvestments. As many as several hundred banks are likely to fold, and most of the rest are capital restrained.
Those banks that are not capital restrained, are playing FDIC Friday Lotto rather than make individual small business loans.”
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/02/yield-curve-steepest-in-history-is.html
This one’s for you, sas:
“A California Banker” writes …
Hello Mish
After our phone conversation last week, I thought of one more important banking tidbit you might want to share with your readers.
If you’re a bank with a relatively healthy balance sheet with adequate capital, (like us)you want to maintain surplus capital in order to stay on the FDIC’s list of banks they can transfer the loans and deposits from a failed institution into.
This is a home run for the acquiring bank and far more of an instant benefit than any new lending.”
Anyone have any thoughts/strong opinions re Florham Park? Stu and I saw a house out there that we really liked. Given that the tax bill is about half of what we’d expect to pay in GR/Montclair, we’re strongly considering getting the h*ll out of Dodge.
gator (21)-
Unless Satan is waiting there to strap you to a bed of nails, it’s got to be better than where you live now.
Get out while you can.
Ron Paul, going scorched-earth on Squawk right now.
US is bankrupt, no bailouts should’ve happened, abolish the Fed…the whole kitchen sink.
Now he’s whipping the military-industrial complex and our endless wars. Becky looks like she’s trying to pass a gallstone.
Schump 22 – Do you think Morris County will grant us tax refugee status?
Over the weekend, while driving Lil Gator to a playdate with one of his friends, we had the opportunity to drive through the Watsessing Park neighborhood of Bloomfield. For those of you not familiar with the area, this neigborhood probably represents your best chance of getting shot in town. Hanging proudly in front of a dilapidated shack that could not be asking more than $150k was a sign for ‘Sotheby’s Prominent Properties’. Will have to check out their other local listings when I need a good laugh later today.
http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/4659
Peter Boone and Simon Johnson
“The doomsday cycle”
“We believe the best route to creating a safer system is to have very large and robust capital requirements, which are legislated and difficult to circumvent or revise.”
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/02/22/economists-see-firm-recovery-in-2010-job-creation-in-1q/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wsj%2Feconomics%2Ffeed+(WSJ.com%3A+Real+Time+Economics+Blog)
Then you read something like this:
“Economists see Firm Recovery In 2010, Job Creation in 1Q”
#21 Gator
I think Florham Park’s kindergarten is only half day. Should check with the school if you need full day Kindergarten.
Also China Chalet next to King’s has great food. If you are looking in Roseland or Livingston 88 Cafe in Livingston has great Chinese food too.
gator (25)-
Sotheby’s has been in the crack house business for several years. Check out their “feature properties” in Washington, DC.
Sotheby’s is just another insolvent division of the insolvent Realogy. I can’t wait for Icahn to quit humping this curdled bag of spoiled cottage cheese, get off, strip them to the bone and walk away.
safe (28)-
The only foods we should care about are our personal stockpiles of MREs.
Restaurants, grocery stores…they’re all gonna go. The first wave of smash-and-grab rioting will destroy them.
I watched seven days of smash-and-grab rioting in LA, back in the day.
Ain’t nothing but a thang. And, the cops don’t even care much about it. Katrina proved that.
Those selling prices exampled in the article, still appear high to me, considering the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and all. Just saying.
Gator take a look at Boonton Township also, low taxes and great school system. well as long as they don’t merge with Boonton. Otherwise Florham Park is very nice we have been looking there as well.
bid on a house this morning lets see how unrealistic the sellers are. Listed 449K bad kitchen update we offered 390K.
clot: WTF? I had to run to the dictionary…..
anencephalitic
“Why a nut job like that would show up at a Chinese New Year parade is another issue.”
So that when the world does actually end he is on record to say ‘I told you so’. :)
#27 And yet they do not even give any real solid reasons as to why, they think this. We believe that, we expect this, we should see that, and on and on they go.
And a rise in housing prices where? Perhaps in Cal AZ, Fla, where prices are as much as 50% off peak, but in the NYC metro area??
And they expect a solid recovery, but yet still high unemployment?? Back in the day, we believed recovery equaled robust job creation. Must be that new, new math I am having trouble with.
chi (34)-
Without a brain; just a hypothalmus or some other tiny piece of meat where a brain should be.
http://www.techimo.com/photo/showphoto.php/photo/3336/ppuser/923
Safe 28 – Kindergarten has been full day there for several years. Bigger issue for me is that after care closes at 530. No way I can make it back from the city for that. But Stu is salivating so much over the lower taxes that he said he can do all school drop offs and pick ups. Note to self – must see what else he will offer to do before I agree to moving :)
Gates: Don’t be fooled…Florham Park is waaaaay the hell out there…unless you guys are considering changing jobs…..too many highways 287/24 and so many neighborhoods are walled off (literally). Go check the schedule for Morristown train stop…..why not just look in Monmouth then?
21.NJGator says:
February 22, 2010 at 8:09 am
Anyone have any thoughts/strong opinions re Florham Park? Stu and I saw a house out there that we really liked. Given that the tax bill is about half of what we’d expect to pay in GR/Montclair, we’re strongly considering getting the h*ll out of Dodge.
gator (38)-
Sounds like it’s time for one of you guys to stop working.
#34 chifi
What would the zombies eat? They’d starve in an anencephalitic world.
I figured it out. I usually say “no cranial function beyond the autonomic nervous system”….but your way evokes genuflection among the masses….
37.Schumpeter says:
February 22, 2010 at 8:43 am
chi (34)- Without a brain; just a hypothalmus or some other tiny piece of meat where a brain should be.
3b(36):
What do you expect them to say? They will say anything and see what actually sticks to the wall as correct. These economists are now all-in with the gubbmint on this so called recovery. There is nothing left for these people to do except hope and hope is no plan. The only way this half baked scheme possible works if Uncle Ben keeps on printing, which is assured as soon as the economy tanks again in April and May.
I think we can be 100% positive this is happening:
“Greece is only the latest in a series of countries that have faced this type of crisis in recent memory. Not too long ago the same types of fears were mounting about Dubai, and before that, Iceland. Several other countries (Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Latvia) are approaching crisis levels with public debt as well. Many have strong ties to Goldman Sachs and the case could easily be made that default could have serious implications for big US banking cartels. Considering the ties between the Fed and these big banks, it is not outlandish to wonder if the US taxpayer is secretly bailing out the entire world, country by country, even as our real unemployment tops 20 percent.”
Better yet: Italy’s debt is 5x more than Greece’s, and it represents 25% of the entire debt of the Eurozone.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/02/weekend-roundup-ron-paul-wins-straw.html
21- Surburbia for real. Livingston lite. Won’t the commute be a b!tch?
Know some nice people there though.
Chifi,
What do you think of Middletown? Seeing 450k+ for crappy capes make these new townhouses in Middletown seem like a deal.
http://www.ryanhomes.com/Harmony_Glen_9668020051222.html
gator (25)-
Florham Park is very nice and has excellent schools. It’s also very close to 24 and 287. I have lots of friends who grew up in FP and are now raising their families there.
And I concur with safehouses – China Chalet is great.
46.safeashouses says:
February 22, 2010 at 8:48 am
Chifi, What do you think of Middletown? Seeing 450k+ for crappy capes make these new townhouses in Middletown seem like a deal.
bairen: Anything zoned for Middletown North high school means an automatic problem….from there you can easily get the Belford ferry to downtown, or the NJT at Middletown…by 2015, hopefully they will be running express trains so the train ride will be a conistent 50-60 minutes….it is more in the 65-75 now….
safe (41)-
Times are tough. Why should zombies be exempt?
Chifi 39 – Problem with Monmouth is that Stu needs to drive to Union. Living amongst the 78/24 corridor gives him a 15 minute driving commute.
Monmouth would be no longer of a commute for me, but likely a more expensive one.
lost: do you have an opinion on this? Please leave out expletives……
http://www.jerseyshorefreeschool.org/
Both NJT…isn’t it the same price?
50.NJGator says:
February 22, 2010 at 8:58 am
Chifi 39 – Problem with Monmouth is that Stu needs to drive to Union. Living amongst the 78/24 corridor gives him a 15 minute driving commute.
Monmouth would be no longer of a commute for me, but likely a more expensive one.
Lisoosh – Yup, commute would suck for me. If it weren’t for that and my hesitation, Stu would probably have an offer on the table already.
Gator Stu need to go to union foget my last comment. sounds like you two will end up in Madison or Brigadoon
Chifi 50 – Nope – While the travel times are roughly the same, the distance to Monmouth is much greater. NJT fares are zoned by distance. Here’s a sampling of monthly fares in towns we’ve checked out:
Glen Ridge $135
Montclair $154
Millburn $186
Summit $218
Chatham $227
Metropark $227
Madison $246
Metuchen $246
Matawan $309
Middletown $326
Chicago – Thank you for responding to the RS article from yesterday.
My reference to John’s philosophy was on page 7. The guy who was shorting junk bonds because the fundamentals weren’t there, kept losing money so finally gave up and said, “Fcuk it, let’s make some money.”
Not a RE story but it does involve Bruce Toll.
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/homepage/20100222_One_expensive_year_later__and_papers_remain_bankrupt.html
Management is fighting the secured creditors to retain control of the company. If they wanted to maintain control, why didn’t they just pay the loans?
I’m no lawyer, but this is silly. If they default, the creditors should get the business.
Pain 54 – Problem with Brigadoon is there is no direct train to NY. I’ve ridden NJ Transit for long enough not to trust them to have reliable connections!
safe :46
I really don’t like the location of that Ryan Homes Townhouse development. That is a busy street with a heavy commercial influence. You must see that area before you do anything.
Out of Curiosity….what are those townhomes on the Belford waterfront selling for these days. That was a HOV project which got bid up way-y-y beyond reality. They have come back to earth recently. I wonder if there’s anything worth looking at in there. That was a nice location.
Gator,
Don’t forget that trains aren’t the only way to get to NYC. For work north of Wall Street, the bus can beat the train. After years of taking the train & Path to Wall Street from Scotch Plains/Fanwood, I discovered that for midtown meetings the bus could get me to 42nd street in less than an hour.
gator (53)-
What’s a longer commute, when compared to being eaten alive by the Secretariat?
Fiddy/Safe – I have a friend who recently bought a resale in the townhouse development near Whole Foods for slightly under $400k.
http://www.pultehomesspanish.com/communitydetail/bedrooms-2/bathrooms-2/builder-126/community-28214/view-directions/market-194
Schump – Are those my really my only options? – spending more time each day on a bus/train than I get to spend with my son or living in a cr*p shack and having my entire pay check direct deposited to the People’s Republic of Montclair?
Gator,
This is NJ, so YES. those are your options ( except for leaving the state)
Gator –
I see that listing….on Abby Road, right ?
Interesting sale, it says new construction, owned by Centex, list price $443K…sold for $380K. I hope your friend squeezed Centex for sales concessions.
Those townhomes on Belford waterfront are still wildly overpriced. No project HOV ever built is worth that kind of money.
Fiddy – My friend bought a resale – didn’t buy from Centex. She did ok :)
gator (63)-
Yes. Of the “holy trinity” in RE, you only get two out of three. Since price/payment is usually capped by either your common sense-or the bank’s limits- you get to pick between #1 and #3:
1. location
2. price/payment
3. quality of housing
“Are those my really my only options?”
I still think you should tell the Montklair secretariat that you’re black.
In fact, you should probably also tell them that Stu is your lesbi@n lover. I bet that gets you bonus points.
Cindy says:
February 22, 2010 at 9:14 am
Cindy, kids were off from school so I was koo koo busy last few days.
BTW people don’t realize I actually know a lot about bonds, probably more so than Chifi, alot of knowledge was obtained way back when I was the supervisor in the bond reorg dept. Running lotteries, tender offers, partial calls, full calls etc. You got to read all that materials all day long. Plus at one point I did transfer agent, paying agent and bond trading desks audits. I also managed firms prop bond positions for trader mistakes and overage and underages in bond lotteries. Also did product controller work valuing hard to value assets. That on top of trading my own bonds and having PA on my moms bond account. It seems extremely unscientific when I say go all in on Citigroup at 16% or Ford at $40% but I am like someone on the Luge going 140mph and have to make quick and right decisions. Chifi manages people mony in a proper fiduciary manner. He is subject to arbitration complaints and he can lose big putting a widow in 40% Ford bonds where he shares none of upside but could get sued big time. Plus Chifi can’t go all over the place, in my accounts I have bought investment grade, junk, prefs, high dividend paying stocks, CDs, MBS, closed end bond funds, munis, z-coupon, step-ups etc. Chifi can’t go messing around all over the place like that in someone elses account. Plus my time horzon is long. 10-30 years.
Most people can’t commit beyond a one year cd. I would do 100% what chifi does if I was him.
Chicago – Thank you for responding to the RS article from yesterday.
My reference to John’s philosophy was on page 7. The guy who was shorting junk bonds because the fundamentals weren’t there, kept losing money so finally gave up and said, “Fcuk it, let’s make some money.”
The guy shorting bonds was smart when he started but near the end he was stupid for doing it.
Decent Bonds in default often pay 40-50 in bankruptcy. Heck I had two defaults in 20 years, Wamu I sold at 68 cents after default and CIT I sold at 50 cents after default. Bonds were trading at below default rates. Crazy, take CIT its low was 36 on default fears, yet it did default and paid 70 cents on a dollar in new bonds and 30% in stock. Stock has rose since then to boot.
Now bonds are fairly overpriced. Citi group has some bonds trading at 116. That is much more risk then when it was 50. Yet people want to buy them at 116 who would not buy them at 50.
A guy named Sue? A girl named Stu?
AAARGH!
Schump 68 – We can still do that. Gotta register Lil Gator for Montclair K the week of 3/8. Until we close on a new place, gotta have our backup plan ready to go.
Although if we know we will likely not to be there in the fall, we can really have fun with them.
John-
I am now imagining you trading your mom’s bond account. Sort of a cross between Liar’s Poker and Night of the Living Dead. Scary.
“That on top of trading my own bonds and having PA on my moms bond account.”
Anyone have any friends living in Vermont? Any opinions?
mocha (73)-
If you’re a woman, you can save money there by not having to buy hair removal products.
Oh…and one of your Senators is a soci@list.
yeah but the gun laws are sooooo lax.
My wife is a relatively hairless conservative.
[21] gator
Florham Park:
No train access if that is important
And there’s no “there” there.
[73] mocha
Depending on where you live, conservatives are in short supply in the Magic Kingdom. That said, its loopy, Berkeleyesque state gov. notwithstanding, there is a strong libertarian undercurrent there.
[58] gator
Cannot speak for the a.m. rush, but in the evenings, they routinely hold up the RVL if its “connecting” train from NYC is late.
I find it quite maddening, actually.
“I actually know a lot about bonds,”
John, i think this is fairly obvious.
plume (77)-
There is also a strong undercurrent of toothless Canuck rednecks on food stamps.
Veto (79)-
What John really knows is how the big boys rigged up the TBTF game.
safeashouses says:
February 22, 2010 at 6:39 am
“NEVER in all his 17 years selling real estate has Mark Seiden gone through as many boxes of tissues as he has in the past 12 months”
is this guy jerkin’ it 2-3 times a day?
Thanks, Yikes. Surprised it took 82 posts to get there.
On Leaving NJ:
Discussed it with the spouse over the weekend.
I gave her the green light to interview for and consider opportunities in other states (or countries), provided that any offer she garners is worthwhile (so I can afford to be a Trophy Husband for awhile).
Leading contender is the Chicago area. Unfortunately, Illinois is not in much better shape than NJ.
And we have no intention of buying if we go there.
Nom 76 – You mean Trader Joe’s does not count as a “there”?
[80] clot
Used to live in NH, so I know all about that. Good source of cheap labor.
[85] gator
No
[85] gator
But you are close to Madison.
Talk about running toward the fire…
“Leading contender is the Chicago area.”
http://www.maltzauctions.com/auction_detail.php?id=128401
my favorite bankruptcy auction of all time!!!!!!
Here’s a fun little chart that anyone thinking of moving should bookmark or save:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/visualizing-black-hole-state-revenues
It’s a sad day when even sex is tapped out.
http://www.maltzauctions.com/auction_detail.php?id=127608
wow is this a big house, 5,200 sq feet in BC in bankruptcy. I say it is too big to be a mcmansion.
Sounds crazy but I’m reading some of the libertarian mumbo jumbo, a lot of it I agree with.
[89] clot
Yeah, I know, but that is why I said that we would rent. NJ sucks on many levels, but the one that truly hurts is the ball-and-chain of being a bagholder.
Besides, the premise is that she gets a great job with lots of growth potential, and becomes the sole breadwinner. Promotion-wise, she grew in her last two jobs but maxed out quickly, meaning people had to die or retire before she’d move up. She also pointed out to me that had she taken a job out there offered a couple of years ago, she’d be much higher up by now.
If we go anywhere except DC (where finding work should not be a problem), I become a SAHD, but given what we spend on childcare and NJ PITI, that may be a minimal hit to net revenues.
“What John really knows is how the big boys rigged up the TBTF game.”
That alone took a huge amount of insight though. not just to make the call with words like most of us big mouths did, but to put his own money down – all in and scream loud about it from beginning to end.
whether he bought stocks or bonds, he timed it right and called it too, with conviction – not with dumb luck in that case.
i agree that his risk management still remains to be seen so if he winds up keeping his profits i would even be more impressed.
plume (95)-
I hear you. However, I’m just wondering about the possible collateral damage that would occur when a state that’s even worse off than NJ hits the canvas.
Veto (96)-
I’d say his risk mgmt is baked into the purchases. Some of that stuff is in the money after just a few coupons. The rest is bulletproof, even in BK.
Unless one day, TPTB decide to put some union ahead of holders of senior debt. :)
For tax savings of $7,000 to $8,000 per year and knowing that the municipal governments are going to sock it to you for Christie’s actions, which is what happened when Whitman did the same thing, the concept of living in Florham Park means a lot more to me than the cachet of a Brigadoon or a Chatham.
Trust me folks, 8 or 9% property tax increases are going to be the norm for the next 4 or 5 years at the minimum. 8.5% x $13,000 = $92 a month more. 8.5% of $6,300 = $44 per month more. The gap widens as time goes on.
I’ll take Morris County in a heartbeat over Essex County.
ChiFi: I know Monmouth and Ocean County well. Commute for both of us would be much longer and the traffic is worse down there. Colts Neck (where you live) is very smart as Route 18 is not a retail hell like every other state highway in New Jersey. That is, not until you get into Old Bridge. Although development continues to creep south eastward. Plus, my drive to Union negates any potential benefit.
Now if NJTransit had some frickin’ parking available or more jitney routes, it might actually reduce its reliance on subsidies. Nah, that would make sense.
Schumpty, do you think changing your name often is going to shake you free from the watch lists?
It’d be tough seeing John get crammed down to equity.
If it happens, all my icons will have fallen.
veto (100)-
Think of my handles as mood rings.
Having a good 2010 so far. Only two of my clients have abandoned their homes.
‘Some of that stuff is in the money after just a few coupons.”
this is true but back when mmkts were breaking the buck, a few coupon pmts seemed more like wishful thinking.
[102] final doom
You don’t have a pilot’s license, do you?
#81 -Clot re: “What John really knows is how the big boys rigged up the TBTF game.”
More like the accountants knew they would have suspend mark to market indefinitely.
[97] final doom
That’s why renting is the best protection (or sucking out the equity and strategically defaulting).
If I were renting here, I could easily pull the ripcord on NJ, particularly since I can establish a PA residency (let the revinooers tail me to see where I actually live). In fact, if I get sh1tcanned at my workplace, our plan is for wife and I to run the numbers, and if they are favorable, get “separated” so she can take PA residency and insure that we jointly preserve more tax deductions.
FWIW, the wife has finally come around to the sagacity of renting the “primary” residence and having a nompound in a more stable area tax-wise. And I did not even have to try to sell it.
Nom 107 – BTW – We took Lil Gator to this place yesterday with some frieds (had to find an indoor place to run 4 kids under the age of 5 tired). I think Lil Gator’s favorite activity was great practice for an evenyual defense of a Nompound.
http://kidzvillage.com/kidz_kastle_nj.php
re #96- Veto don’t stroke him, his don’t mess with the Zohan TBTF is based on a few decades of accountant info that those companies balance sheets would no longer reflect fair value. After all the lobbiysts were screeching like a bunch of alley cats in heat for months to Obama, Frank, Reid, Pelosi and Bacus that fair value or mark to market was unfair since the markets were “illiquid”. Here we are a year later since FASB changed the rules and we have thrown the efficient market hypothesis out the window.
What’s the story with this?
http://www.prudentialnewjersey.com/Property/NJ/08816/Ea_Bruns/3_DOROLEE_DR
EB taxes?!?!…a steal at 18K per year.
People must be lining up….
John,
With apologies to Jim Leyritz, you will now be known as “The King”.
re: #110 – The past three owners perhaps all died of cancer? There are power lines right behind it.
http://www.trulia.com/property/1040467723-3-Dorolee-Dr-East-Brunswick-NJ-08816
gator (108)-
Always command the high ground.
-from A Child’s Garden of Verse
RU (110)-
I thought houses of worship were tax-exempt.
Juice,
John has taught us all a very important lesson that we all might be able to learn from.
That lesson is that the govt is prob not going to let it all melt down, ever.
So alot of our fears, while legitimate, will probably never ever happen.
Veto (115)-
The bond vigilantes are more powerful than the gubmint.
Just ask James Carville.
110: Would make a nice mosque.
“I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.”
Danny Meyer doing some damage to his credibility by going on Cramer tonight.
Doom
History also teaches us that building impenetrable forts and locking yourself in is an advantage to a smart opponent.
They simply bypass you and harass you just enough to deny you mobility. The opponent then has overall control of your territory while he knows exactly where you are at all times.
We have seen different versions of this from the Maginot Line to Sottish castles.
Such a strategy would have possibly been a better approach for little round top
116 – final, i think that was only true back when the bond vigilantes, big banks and the govt were not all part of the same colluding group with perfectly aligned interests.
River Dell vs. Tenafly basketball is fan-tastic!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6kR8mokTDQ
that’s actually not a terrible video of a good basketball finish.
From yesterday.
Al’s scenario of nations forgiving each others debt to avoid default is interesting. I image even china could be bought off to buy into the deal for the right price. Perhaps for Taiwan China might be interested….
hyde (120)-
They should war game that at Kidz Village first.
The bond vigilantes’ interests are aligned with no one else’s.
Yield must be paid.
Chi – On the “free school” model.
I’m not an educator, but I’m not a fan. Kids need direction and structure, that sounds like a madhouse.
Some thoughts:
1. Hippy, dippy trippy – going to attract all the bored suburban families who don’t want to homeschool and are scared to discipline their kids.
2. Probably started by yet another bored mom taking parenting too far, she’s developing it as a non-profit so she can have a comfy nice paying job without dealing with running an actual business.
3. Their introductory page describing the school is a bit fantastical considering they only opened a couple of month ago.
4. I wouldn’t want my kids associating with the kids of the kinds of people who would send their kids to that school.
Is anyone looking at Ridgewood to buy a house? Would you share why youre looking there, despite all self evident, damaging truths?
Heres what my thinking is (please chime in with the holes in my logic). FOr the record, hubby is pulling for Allendale/Hohokus.
Ive been keeping track of the latest sales in Ridgewood for the last year. I see people moving here from Oradell and Allendale and so on; people who can, for the same price have better houses in other cities. So I feel, legitimately or not, that Ridgewood is like the holy grail of RE for those people. There will always be a set of people who believe similarly.
As the downturn plays out, if the market rebound remains subdued for 5-7 years more, I believe it would better to buy in Ridgewood to maintain resale. (No we are not planning to resell, but you never know how life works out)
Hubby points out that there are 40 commercial vacancies in town and if the trend continues, the downtown would no longer be as great a selling point.
His theory, if number of people buying reduces, ridgewood would be better off than say, Allendale. If money available to people to buy reduces and no of people stays same, Allendale would be better than Ridgewood. (Havent exactly understood the algorthm behind this.)
Havent reached resolution yet and am hoping hearing others thoughts about it can help. Please chime in! Thanks.
110 – That thing is unbelievably ugly.
Nice location though. Apart from the power lines.
That was scary I had a xerox bond almost tank and she was beating me up. Meanwhile it went from par to 50 to par.
Yet all the ten year IBM and Citi bonds I hooked her up on in 1992 yielding 9% she forgot about.
Schumpeter says:
February 22, 2010 at 9:56 am
John-
I am now imagining you trading your mom’s bond account. Sort of a cross between Liar’s Poker and Night of the Living Dead. Scary.
“That on top of trading my own bonds and having PA on my moms bond account.”
Re 110.
think outside the box. In the 90′s some guy in the southwest claimed to have invented a free-energy device. The device was putting out huge amounts of energy.
It turns out that the guy built a device that picked up RF energy from a set of high voltage lines behind his building. Every time he ran the thing the power company got huge fluctuations in their high voltage transmission in the area.
Same concept as the new wireless charging pads.
Move in and get the guys design for his device. no more power bills! Although the microwave and RF put out by said device might not be so healthy.
onthebrink, the appeal of Ridgewood is partly the downtown, additionally the type of housing stock, and the schools system. The housing is generally older and in nice restored/renovated/modernized shape, people pay more for charming older homes, they are unique and command a premium. Towns with a nice downtown always seem to command a premium, see Brigadoon, Montclair, etc.
Fyi, even with the vacancies the downtown won’t die, the issue there is the same issue in many retail areas in NNJ. The rents are way too high for a business to be viable, make no mistake people are going to downtown ridgewood.
73
My sis moved up to VT last year. She and her hubby are 30 and enjoying it. She’s an analyst at the power company and he’s at Green Mountain Coffee. I do know that their neighbor told them to stay the hell off his property when they were out walking the dog. Seems like the long time Vermonters aren’t too keen on Jersey moving in, but there are plenty of transplants to hang with.
107.
That sounds like a good plan. A former Army intelligence officer told me Western Pennsylvania would be safe.
Regarding property taxes. People are going to have to get involved in their local gov in order to stop the 7% increase year over year in taxes. Specifically the school boards. In Ocean County you have a good fighting chance because school budgets dont just get voted down. They get voted down with a middle finger and an empty shell casing attached to the ballot.
129: a)Ridgewood is the center of all things wonderful, and of the universe, for that matter. b) Stepford syndrome.
“In Ocean County you have a good fighting chance because school budgets dont just get voted down. They get voted down with a middle finger and an empty shell casing attached to the ballot.”
Thats because of the old people.
NJ has the second most amount of retirees of any state (behind fl)
and Ocean county has the second most amount of seniors in NJ, (behind cape may county).
One problem with ocean county is all the old people cant drive and they mob the roads by the thousands.
138.
Its true but if it wasnt for them I suspect this area would be a poster child for the commercial real estate collapse.
RE: Obama’s new health plan
The plan dramatically scales back a Senate tax on high-cost health insurance plans objected to by House Democrats — and labor unions. Instead of raising $150 billion over 10 years, it would bring in just $30 billion, the administration said. A Medicare payroll tax increase on upper-income earners would help plug the revenue gap. For the first time, Medicare taxes would be assessed on investment income, not just wages.
WTF?!
[136] Al
Any rural area in PA is fine, but PA fails the nompound screen in three area: First, presence of major cities in state, which means dems and taxes, but as long as the area is not dependent on massive state aid, little worry there.
PA also fails on recreation; A nompound in rural N.E. is better because of proximity to ski areas. Finally, likelihood of polluted ground water in PA.
R.E. Tax News of the Day:
“Crowley Measure Would Drop Tax Barriers
To Foreign Investment in U.S. Real Estate
Rep. Joseph Crowley (D-N.Y.) recently introduced a measure that would remove some of the artificial tax barriers to foreign investments in U.S. real estate.
The Real Estate Revitalization Act (H.R. 4539), introduced Jan. 27, would amend the Foreign Investment in Real Property Act of 1980. The changes are designed to eliminate the tax bias in favor of debt financing and to assist U.S. real property owners in accessing equity capital from around the world.
The legislation would make several changes to existing law, including eliminating the U.S. Real Property Holding Corporation, according to a summary by the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts.
According to the NAREIT summary, the measure also would consider capital gains and liquidating distributions to foreign shareholders under real estate investment trusts as ordinary dividends subject to a 30 percent U.S. withholding tax. Liquidating distributions would be subject to the 30 percent tax to the extent that a distribution exceeds the foreign investment in its real estate investment trusts.
The bill would not change the tax treatment of U.S. investors in real estate investment trusts and other corporations that invest in U.S. real estate.
While the measure would continue to apply to gains from the disposition of direct foreign investment in U.S. real estate, shares in real estate investment trusts and other real property holding corporations would no longer be U.S. real property interests, and, therefore, foreign investors would be subject to uniform U.S. tax treatment upon the sale of stock in a U.S.-based corporation, regardless of whether it invests in U.S. real estate or other assets.
In addition, Crowley’s proposed bill, which includes changes to the capital gains of real estate investment trusts, would extend to all non-U.S. real estate investment trust shareholders the current U.S. tax treatment applicable to foreign shareholders owning 5 percent or less of a listed investment trust. Crowley’s bill has been referred to the House Ways and Means Committee.”
Got Euros?
Chi – heres a pretty critical article about that model. Scares the cr@p out of me:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2003645914_unschooled01m.html
Moved in 2004. Takes some adjustments like lower taxes and slower pace but all in all its been great. Real estate is affordable and everything is just easier than Monmouth County. I moved after 9/11 and when the next one hits, regardless of severity, there will be a new wave coming. Where I live in Dorset, I would say 1 out of 3 I meet is a Jersey transplant that never looked back.
Obama Giving Black Farmers $1.25B in Reparations
Sunday, 21 Feb 2010 09:55 PM Article
By: Theodore Kettle
Black farmers – possibly over 70,000 of them – will get cash payments and debt relief from the federal government totaling $1.25 billion, in reparation for alleged racial discrimination suffered under the Department of Agriculture’s loan programs, the Obama Administration has agreed.
http://newsmax.com/Newsfront/obama-reparations-black-farmers/2010/02/21/id/350458
“if it wasnt for them I suspect this area would be a poster child for the commercial real estate collapse.”
same with ac. the old people come off the bus at the casino door step with oxygen masks and their ss checks. they will do anything for a free buffet, including giving you their whole ss check.
About VT,
It strikes me as an interesting amalgam. Places like Burlington, with the UVm are liberal bastians and some of the more isolated rural areas are crusty, libertarian, yankee incubators.
[144] moved
You forgot to mention that you had to change your driving habits.
I have noticed that NJ/NY drivers do not drive in N.E. like they do back here. It’s an obvious recognition of the fact that the local constabulatory don’t take kindly to that sort of behavior.
And in certain places in N.E. (particularly Western Mass., NH and ME, where they dislike NJers even more than Vermonters do), driving like a Jersey Boy (or Jerky Boy as they are called in some areas north of Boston) will earn you the NJ One Finger Salute from a guy with something in his gun racks, if you are lucky. Unlucky? Different story.
“RF put out by said device might not be so healthy”
doesn’t matter.
you fry your brain everytime you use the cell phone.
I need to invest in brain cancer, or cancer of the External Auditory Canal.
SAS
[143] lisoosh,
Or you can wait and send Graydon and Ellery here:
http://www.hampshire.edu/
With a 50% dropout rate, it isn’t for the undisciplined.
And yes, as we often joked, you can major in Frisbee at Hampshire.
Gator,
I have known a few people who lived in FP and the3y all seemed to like it vry much. I have not been there in a few years but it seemed a reasonable place. FP vs. Middletown? I would vote for FP in a heartbeat. “South of the Bridge” is wholly dependent on the Parkway. 9, 35, and 36 are non starters.
it a great time to give billions away to differnt ethnic groups.
While we are at it, we should cut a check to the American indians too.
They never got a square deal with us.
And dont forget about the Irish. they were slaves for the vikings. Its never to late to collect for damages you know.
Nom,
I see that B.O. has persuaded you of the greatness of the second city. Or, is it that you want to bask in his reflected aura? You arn’t starting to wear Birkenstocks are you?
One reason many have moved from NJ and NY to the Manchester area is specifically for the excellent high school. The facilities and caliber of teachers is just incomparable to what we experienced in Monmouth County. Because of various “numbers games” prestige universities play, odds of getting into an Ivy League school from Vt are better.
150 -That place has “queer studies”?
I don’t get US colleges at all “womens studies”, courses by Oprah. In the UK they expect you to study real stuff, the namby pamby courses go no further than history of art or history of science.
138
I’d say Ocean County is thriving with a wonderful mix of old people, gangs, and tea baggers. Fun mix.
In full disclosure the fence in my back yard seperates Ocean and Monmouth counties.
[153] Shore
BO has persuaded me of his inexperience and arrogance, and little more. I vehemently resisted Chicago when we visited there (my wife had an interview so they flew us out and invited us to see the city on thier dime—job wasn’t an improvement over current situation, and we were not impressed with what we saw, so we declined). But, Chicago (or elsewhere) may be possible.
Green light doesn’t mean I am going anywhere yet, only that I am open to the possiblity. I see no future in NJ anymore.
Birkenstocks suck. Overpriced fuzzy clogs. Saw far too many of them while at my old job on campus:
http://www.umass.edu/transit/index.html
Monmouth County Freeholder John D’Amico last week proposed turning the county jail over to a private operator, saying the union salaries paid to the 300 correction officers who work there are “unsustainable.”
That’s putting it mildly
The two highest-paid workers in the county last year were corrections officers, who more than doubled their base pay with overtime. Dana J. Townsend and Robert B. Kornett were the beneficiaries of an out-of-control system. In 2009, both of them raked in $186,000 each — $11,000 more than Gov. Chris Christie. And each received more than $98,000 in overtime alone.
More than 200 guards are due to receive the top-step base salaries of $89,000 or $90,500 if the union’s proposals are adopted in pending interest arbitration. Last year, 36 corrections officers made more than $130,000 in base pay and overtime, and 150 made more than $100,000.
The abuses of overtime and excessive salaries paid to corrections officers are nothing new. It’s time to do something about it. Taxpayers should let the freeholders know they need to bring the wildly inflated costs under control.
Difficult times often call for drastic measures. Privatization of the Monmouth County jail must be a serious option and not merely a bargaining chip to be used against the union.
You drove a bus?
Ket,
Look who’s picked up on the story.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/21/us/21spy.html?hpw
“driving like a Jersey Boy (or Jerky Boy as they are called in some areas north of Boston”
I did business with a group from massachussets for a few years.
They would rip on my state by refering to it as ‘New Yersey’
[155] lisoosh,
The Valley had not only Hampshire for useless education, but also Smith and Mt. Holyoke, where one still goes for the popular “Mrs. degree.”
Smith is famous for teaching womym’s studies (sic) and had no luck with harder subjects. While I was there, they had an engineering program that was an abject failure. That was because they had no instructors or facilities—all the Smithies took their Eng. classes at UMass, which had great programs. In fact, UMass Eng. was so well-regarded, the Smithies would promptly drop out of Smith, re-enroll at UMass, and save approx. 15K per year in tuition (in early 1980′s dollars), not to mention getting an Eng. degree from a school that people actually heard of for engineering. I am told that Smith revamped the program to stanch the bleeding by conferring joint Smith/UMass degrees on “their” engineers.
MHC was another place where you went to study women (literally). I used to hang around MHC so much, they put me in the yearbook (1983 I think), the girls I knew gave me extra meal cards so I could eat there for free (even though it wasn’t off Royal Doulton, like at Smith), and the lesb1@ans at the front desks never hassled me like they did the Ivy league guys. In fact, at the 1984 MHC commencement, one woman I dated at MHC sat next to another woman I dated. Guess what the topic of conversation was?
[159] shore
Yes
[161] Veto
That was just what they said to your face. To a Bay Stater, being from NJ is slightly more acceptable than being a child m0lester.
162: The fact that you turned them? Well done.
In fact, at the 1984 MHC commencement, one woman I dated at MHC sat next to another woman I dated. Guess what the topic of conversation was?
brink (129)-
You buy in either town at this level, you will eventually be wiped out.
[159] shore
Never got to drive this bad boy though:
http://www.umass.edu/transit/ft_maroonwhite.html
Well after my time.
U.S. Teachers Fall Victim to Tidal Wave of Pink Slips
US Secretary of Education Arne Duncan expresses concern as budget deficits expose American teachers and educators to risk of imminent layoff.
“I am very, very concerned about layoffs going into the next school year starting in September. Good superintendents are going to start sending out pink slips in March and April, as they start to plan for their budgets,” said Duncan, referring to the slips of paper included in some paychecks to notify a person of being fired.
The layoffs will come as plummeting tax revenues force states and cities to cut costs, including education funds, in a bid to keep their budgets balanced.
This could spell more than simply bad news for Americans who are already angry with the government over the rate of unemployment, despite a 0.3 percent drop from last year’s 10.0 percent.
Duncan further referred to the economic stimulus package pushed by the Obama administration and approved by the Congress, saying the plan saved at least 320,000 education jobs last year.
The plan created a stabilization fund of $48 billion that provided cash directly to states, mostly for schools; but those funds will likely run out before the end of the year.
This is while Obama warned last week of possible job cuts in state governments when the stimulus ends.
In January, there were 8.03 million workers in local government education, down from 8.09 million the previous year and 8.05 million in January 2008, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
MUHAHAHAHA! Get some.
John (131)-
Do you pour Maalox on your Wheaties every morning?
“Meanwhile it went from par to 50 to par.”
Ugh. Now I’m imagining John’s mom as his risk manager.
The onion stuff is actually a prettier visual.
John’s “risk manager”:
http://tinyurl.com/ykvrx6d
More RE tax news of the Day
(coming to a state near you, if it hasn’t already)
“Virginia Caps Land Preservation Credit
Total Value at $107 Million for 2010
The Virginia Department of Taxation announced Feb. 19 that the state will provide tax credits totaling no more that $106.8 million in calendar 2010 under its land preservation tax break program.
The annual cap was first applied in 2008 under Virginia Code Section 10.1-1010. The cap, indexed annually to the consumer price index, has risen from $100 million, the tax agency noted in Tax Bulletin 10-2.
Meanwhile, the General Assembly is now considering several bills that would modify the program. They include:
• H.B. 141, approved by the House Feb. 16 and pending in the Senate, which would loosen the tax credit eligibility restrictions for charitable organizations;
• H.B. 447, approved by the House Feb. 16 and pending in the Senate, which would remove the $10,000 limit on the 2 percent state fee assessed on sales of land preservation tax credits; and
• S.B. 233, approved by the Senate Feb. 19 and sent to the House, which would extend the $50,000 maximum on land preservation income tax credits that a taxpayer can claim annually.”
The states cannot directly impose ad valorem taxes on property generally without legislation. But those conservation, preservation, and farmland tax breaks are coming under scrutiny, and since they can raise revenue with little notice by the sheeple, that is where the hammer will fall next when it comes to state governments and r.e.
163.
Does Bay stater mean San Francisco? If it does I wouldnt mind going to war against that den of iniquity.
I can just picture the San Fran army of 500,000 fags, freaks, crackheads, and hippies led by that bi#ch Pelosi.
I bet Ocean Counties army of old people, gangs, and tea baggers could end the battle in a day.
[164] relo
Nope, sorry. Both women were screaming hets when I met them. I’d expound more on your subject, but that runs into my self-imposed TMI filter, so it will have to wait for a GTG.
Gotta actually do some work now.
lisoosh (155)-
Only in the US have TPTB fully committed to rendering us all stupid and helpless.
[172] al
One more and I really gotta go:
Official Nickname for Massachusetts is The Bay State, hence Bay Staters.
The S.F. joke I heard some time back was
“why is S.F. like granola?”
“Once you get past the fruits and the nuts, all you have left are the flakes.”
Birkenstocks on a woman are a guarantee of more body hair than a woolly mammoth.
From JPM:
For U.S. homeowners with a mortgage, loan-to-values are roughly 92% as of Q3 2009 as per Zelman Associates. We estimate the shadow
inventory problem (delinquent and foreclosed homes) to be as large as all existing homes for sale.
Doom,
Some things are not supposed to be braided.
Take Ivy’s predictions, and double them.
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=9901417
I’m proud to declare that I’m one of these landlords these days. The loan mod is taking too long to take place.
Doom
Come now,
you and i are just RE doomers. It cant actually be that bad.
Veto,
(161)
I went to school in Providence, R.I. and it goes both ways. I had to deal with a lot of dudes named Sully, Murf and Fitzy from southee, looking for a wicked aass paddy, that would be a pissaa. Good times. We agreed we were a people seperated by a common language.
#99 I think you are looking at 10% minimum, easy.
Here is a great idea! (NOT)
Tracy, California ( wants people to pay $300 for every 911 call.
http://techdirt.com/articles/20100219/1238398241.shtml
safeashouses says:
February 22, 2010 at 8:45 am
#34 chifi
What would the zombies eat? They’d starve in an anencephalitic world.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iICP8DcYHf4
http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/2010/01/26/2010-01-26_nj_pols_wear_many_hats__and_thats_a_problem_critics_say.html
Jersey politics at its best.
Just saw a blurb suggesting that the most recent incarnation of health care reform allows health care tax revenue to be transfered to Social security at the governments discretion.
Can anyone confirm if this is accurate.
That sounds like a heck of a back door tax hike to cover the SS time bomb.
Re 187
See page 10
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/summary-presidents-proposal.pdf
any political guru’s want to chime in?
Since one of the topics is about the anencephalic, here:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/02/22/college-debt_n_471023.html?slidenumber=a3Sx8%2FxFXqo%3D&#slide_image
sl
Nom,
You might fidn this part interesting
<i.The President’s Proposal adopts the Senate bill approach and adds a 2.9 percent assessment (equal to the combined employer and employee share of the existing HI tax) on income from interest, dividends, annuities, royalties and rents, other than such income which is derived in the ordinary course of a trade or business which is not a passive activity (e.g., income from active participation in S corporations) on taxpayers with respect to income above $200,000 for singles and $250,000 for married couples filing jointly. The additional revenues from the tax on earned income would be credited to the HI trust fund and the revenues from the tax on unearned income would be credited to the Supplemental Medical Insurance (SMI) trust fund.
190: At least it’s an assessment and not a tax.
For those who need the visual: Here.
sl
#129 As one who is considering Ridgewood, I would say that the commercial vacany is an issue, however, Allendale/Ho Ho Kus among other areas have little to no commercial, and I would imagine that they will/are suffering commercial vacancies too. I would think that in any recovery, an establised commercial area like Ridgewood’s would come back first.
Ridgewood has had a very good reputation for years (whatever that means, and depending how mcuh that means to you). What I am simply amazed at is from a property tax standpoint. Ridgewood;s taxes which were always high in comparison to so many other towns, are now in many cases equal too, and lower than taxes in other towns. I am looking at potential resale 15 to 20 years out (hard to do of course),and have come to the conclusion that for our purposes at least, it appears to be the better choice.
Final Doom says:
You are talking to a guy who actually successfully scalped Jets tickets last year. My Mom’s goal when she was alive was to never touch principal. I had account set up to mail her an interest check each month. I only re-invested bonds upon maturity. I did this for ten year with an average yield of 9% on a 100K bond portfolio. One single bond that was investment grade when I bought it tanked quickly because of FX and revenue recording differences with the external auditor in Latin America. JC, like I am supposed to know that. Meanwhile the bank was paying a lousy 5% in one year CDs, so she pocketed an extra 50k in interest income and took an unrealized loss of 5k that was never realized. That exta 4k a year she viewed as found money and went on a few trips and dinners over the years. An extra 350 a month goes a long way for a widow.
Biggest mistake old people make is going short. You are never selling. Yield is what you live off. Heck if you die of old age stop buying last year or two and probate can take up to two years. Long term bonds don’t stay long term bonds forever, and so what if you kids are stuck with a 15 year hard to sell bond paying 9%. They can just stick it in their retirement or college savings acccount. My AIG and GMAC bonds I will just hold to maturity and pay college tuition with it. Big deal.
Even people who invested in Madoff and did not re-invest dividends did good. Old Bernie was paying like 15% a year so if you put 100K in you got all your money back in 7 years. As long as you have no defaults and do not reinvest interest or do margin even a junky portfolio is fairly safe. However, margin and leverage is what everyone did as when you are making 15% you say I can borrow at 5% buy more and make 10% for free.
February 22, 2010 at 12:42 pm
John (131)-
Do you pour Maalox on your Wheaties every morning?
“Meanwhile it went from par to 50 to par.”
#138 That is a myth, I knwo peopel that say one thing and do another when they get in the voting booth. It ain’t just the seniors voting school budgets down. And more than a few non-seniors do not even vote one way or the other, no ownership of the issue than either way.
still -that was cheerful (192).
Actually I need to e-mail you for some advice.
sl (189)-
Imagine racking up that debt to major in, say, women’s studies .
Great job market for those grads.
#60 A.West
I second your comment about bus beating train to midtown. In fact, the past three weeks of NJT Train service have been so bad that the RVL line bus equivalent services have been the big winner. Best case you will actually beat the train (as the train sits between Newark and Secaucus due to a stuck train, bridge or signal issues) and worst case, you have a tie but at least on the bus you don’t have to deal with running from Track 5 to Track 1 or whatever the NJT lotto pulls for you.
#76 Nom
What RVL do you take towards High Bridge? I find the opposite of what you say to be true. Every day I am in a mad rush to hit the 5:47 out of Newark Penn but the 5:xx out of NYC Penn that I take is always delayed for one reason or another so we pull into Newark Penn at say 5:46 and when I get up to track 5 at 5:47 I see that sucka pulling away right on time, almost EVERY SINGLE DAY! Then I have to wait for the 6:04 which inevitably doesn’t even pull into Newark Penn until 6:08.
What I find maddening is that the 5:47 is so damn punctual most nights but the 6:04 is always late getting to the station. NJTransit can suck it. RVL would be nice except that if you rely on the NJC or NEC lines to connect into midtown, you get Farked anyway.
relo yes a tax would be bad. hey should just call it income reallocation
sl (192)-
Quit taunting frank.
Daughter: Pilot in Texas IRS crash was a hero
She says building attack ‘inappropriate,’ but hails his anti-tax views
AUSTIN, Texas – The daughter of a man who crashed his small plane into an Internal Revenue Service building called her father a hero for his anti-government views but said his actions, which killed a tax service employee, were “inappropriate.”
Joe Stack’s adult daughter, Samantha Bell, spoke to ABC’s “Good Morning America” from her home in Norway. Asked during a phone interview broadcast Monday if she considered her father a hero, she said: “Yes. Because now maybe people will listen.”
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35519143/ns/us_news-crime_and_courts/
lisoosh,
Fire away… I’m up now… down in about an hr – working overnight tonight, so you can reach there by phone (after 11pm or midnight…preferably, if you’re up.)
sl
Gator 201
thats like a lit match in a fireworks factory. I’m sure the FEDs are busy scanning their databases at this moment
Doom, 200 (i love the new handle!)
Fu.ck that! He’s totally brain-dead, not just anencephalic!
Like an amoeba, or a paramaecium – all you can do is try to drive it off with noxious stimulus.
sl
They should lock that daughter up now.
Stu,
You have a problem with free speech? The situation is the governments fault, not hers.
Stu: live in Union/ and send Lil’ Gates here…..
http://www.pingry.k12.nj.us/
Stu aka The Sausage Party says:
February 22, 2010 at 10:37 am
ChiFi: I know Monmouth and Ocean County well. Commute for both of us would be much longer and the traffic is worse down there. Colts Neck (where you live) is very smart as Route 18 is not a retail hell like every other state highway in New Jersey. That is, not until you get into Old Bridge. Although development continues to creep south eastward. Plus, my drive to Union negates any potential benefit.
Now if NJTransit had some frickin’ parking available or more jitney routes, it might actually reduce its reliance on subsidies. Nah, that would make sense.
lisoosh: thx for the comments and the article; completely consistent with my expectations; my wife once tutored a eight year old from a Hoboken charter school that couldn’t read. He had the tools, but he came from a student directed program, and he decided not to really focus on that……hence, he got f—ed…
Pingry:
Grades K-5 $24,195
Grades 6-8 $27,495
Grades 9-12 $28,745
That is insane!!!
Hyde,
Free speech is fine of course. I’m just concerned that it’s in the genes.
Stu – Pretty comparable with Montclair Kimberley.
Tuition 2009-2010
Grades Amount
Pre-K – 3 $21,800
4 – 5 $24,200
6 – 8 $27,000
9 – 12 $28,800
Peddie HS Tuition –
2009-10 Tuition
Boarding – $41,100
Day – $31,100
For $30K per year, it would probably be much smarter to invest it and when your kid gets out of high school you can give him a $600,000 check to start a business. Ain’t no way the average Graydon receives that much of an advantage over a top perform in a decent public school. On top of that, the value system these private school kids develop is despicable.
John,
Florham Park is where your treasured Jets practice and where Tony Siragusa now resides.
Stu: but Pingry has a hockey team…dude, eh?
Stu: also, where better to learn to be a high society douchebag in low rent NJ?
“#138 That is a myth, I knwo peopel that say one thing and do another when they get in the voting booth. ”
3b, Dont know what towns you are reffering to but it is definately NOT a myth in ocean county. I’ve seen it with my own eyes for many years.
And its not just a recent real estate bubble phenomenon. They have been doing this down there for 30 years. They organize huge gtgs and rallies and have endless amount of time to argue with every town and go to every meeting.
Dude….they even have girls hockey…..
Girl’s hockey means automatic admittance to Bryn Mawr……
For $30K per year, it would probably be much smarter to invest it and when your kid gets out of high school you can give him a $600,000 check to start a business. Ain’t no way the average Graydon receives that much of an advantage over a top perform in a decent public school. On top of that, the value system these private school kids develop is despicable.
Stu,
100% agree. Buy this student a gas station at 18. Simple business that virtually runs itself and your kid will live a much better life than 90% of those Kids.
In a 10 years he’ll learn how to manage a business, save, and then start his own little empire.
This education is equivalent of a top knotch MBA.
#215 Understand. But it does not mean they are wrong for voting no.
Stu (205)-
Should be hard to find her, since she’s a black woman in Norway.
chi (208)-
Look into Waldorf schools. They can f-up a kid faster than you can smoke an eightball.
There are two or three of them in my area. They specialize in walletectomies to rich people who need to feel their kids are “special”.
3b –
they are not ‘right’.
they are not ‘wrong’.
they are just ‘old’.
anything in quotes above is a relative term.
stu (212)-
Tony Siragusa’s dump on Rt 31 in Clinton got shut down by the police.
When he was with the Ravens, Siragusa bought a diamond necklace for his chihuahua.
3b – actually now that you remind me, people were totally outraged down there in 2003-05 when real estate was booming like crazy and the oldies kept voting down the school budgets like scrooges.
It was really becoming a ‘problem’.
looking back now its really comical.
chi (217)-
Bard. At that place, the women kick the crap out of the men.
does anyone have any predictions of how real estate and taxes in the stronger, more affluent towns will perform relative to real estate and taxes in the more middle class towns?
It’s tempting to choose a town that is a little more middle class and get an extra 600-1,000 sq ft for the same price.
… no Wellesley jokes?
Clot, let me phrase the same question in a different way:
When the famines and riot hit, will it matter if you are in blue ribbon or abbott?
veto (229)-
No.
You think too much.
Is girls’ hockey the same thing as tongue hockey?
ha. i dont think too much. i have my own answer in my head alreasy but want to see if it matches the consensus or outliers.
232.
I think you need to be more focused on the fallout pattern from a potential nuclear strike.
Prevailing wind direction, basement etc.
‘For $30K per year, it would probably be much smarter to invest it and when your kid gets out of high school you can give him a $600,000 check to start a business. Ain’t no way the average Graydon receives that much of an advantage over a top perform in a decent public school. On top of that, the value system these private school kids develop is despicable.”
Stu,
guy from my HS, his relatives did just that. In a school district where 98% went on to college, he didn’t. Got a 600k loan from relatives, went into biz. He is now very wealthy while we are all…well…..not.
AL,
what sort of nuke strike. are we talking terroist type strike (ground burst) or an organized strike with ICBM’s by a nother world power?
the terrorist scenario is easy to prep for. The foreign power strike is not, as half of the NY,NJ,Philly area would be targeted, from sussex, to edison to NYC
Nom, i found the perfect nompound for you. 53 acres. This place would make david koresh squeel with jeolousy.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/54-Baird-Rd_Millstone_NJ_08535_1116029771
Stu: but Pingry has a hockey team…dude, eh?
Gator…You need to get a second job. Chop chop. :P
ket, i agree. as one of the most densely populated areas, nj seems like the perfect target for icbm strike not to mention being situated in between two large cities we are pretty much living in the bullseye state.
im wondering if an icbm is the one thing that can finally make homes more affordable in this state?
Congressional Oversight Panel’s CRE report out today. 190 pages of reasons why I’ve changed my handle.
“There are 358 banks in the size of $1 to $10 billion with excessive CRE concentrations. There are an additional 2,115 banks in the size of $100 million to $1 billion with excessive CRE concentrations. Only 1 of the top 20 banks (greater than $100 billion) has excessive CRE concentrations. However, because of size, that 1 is important as well.
Certainly not all of those banks will fail, but hundreds of them will. Moreover, of all the banks, a whopping 2,988 out of 8,108 have excessive CRE concentrations”
http://cop.senate.gov/documents/cop-021110-report.pdf
buy now or be incinerated in a thermonuclear blast forever.
any citi news today?
i just got here
Sorry Stu 237 – No can do. Clot said it’s time for me to retire. I like that idea better.
“i just got here”
Barb, welcome back. you have not missed much.
Just sitting around waiting for home prices to drop.
Clot is now waiting for FINAL DOOM
Veto,
A nuclear target map for NJ.
They are missing a few as well. Sussex has at least 2 or 3 nukes targeted at facilities up that way.
Barb,
Nope, no new citi news. Just contemplating how to lower home values using high energy physics.
Veto,
if you saw the fallout map in the link i posted then you can see that you dont want to be in the northeast at all if multiple ICBM’s are involved.
And dont forget ground blasts produce much more fallout them airbursts, so a terrorist truck bomb would actually produce worse fallout then and ICBM from china
hyde post link again. i dont see it.
Unless its top secret and you’ve encrypted it?
kettle & veto,
quick boys.
My 200K flat I bought in 05, now costs how much in 2010 dollars? adjusting for inflation.
SAS
and if its encoded, can you email me the fibonacci decoder? thx
and no, its not my old London flat.
I lost that sucker in the late 80s.
In the late 80′s I bought a flat in London, and I god damn lost my shirt on it.
SAS makes mistakes too.
SAS, i get $202,510 assuming an avg of 3% cpi over the last 5 years.
Why do you need this so quick? Are you on the other line with a german mortgage broker? ha.
“Why do you need this so quick? Are you on the other line with a german mortgage broker? ha.”
I got a 3 way convo going.
200K dollars in 05 is worth how much in 2010.
SAS
$202,510
Clot – Andrew Kaplan at NYU.
Studies the housing/mortgage market and is publishing some paper in the next few days.
Was interviewed on Bloomberg – nutshell, US housing is going to implode. F and F doomed, FHA over valuing houses, true value 15-20% lower, delaying the inevitable etc. etc. Taxpayers are going to eat it all. yada yada. End of the world as we know it.
Closest on this board to his assessment – Clot/Shump/Doom.
Thought you’d like to know. Interview well worth listening to.
$221,901.69
according to http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/
but it doesnt show the rates assumed each year.
This dude:
http://cess.nyu.edu/caplin/
ok, thx
wait, is it 202 it 221?
SAS
actually sas, at 3% its worth 231k today.
255 lisoosh
and I am still holding out for buy 1
255 lisoosh
and I am still holding out
for buy 1 get 1 free
oh man. i failed SAS’ simple math test.
i will never be special operations material.
fold inder pressure.
255; He’s just trying to bogart some of that Roubini tookie.
veto,
its 231? wow!
I’ve got Japan on the line.
Language barrier.
If anyone out there speaks fluent japanese. Your fired, tell me your rate.
SAS
SAS
My calc gives
$227,254.33
based on monthly CPI from St Loius FED
Monthyl inflation (CPI) rates since 2005:
2005-01-01 190.700
2005-02-01 191.800
2005-03-01 193.300
2005-04-01 194.600
2005-05-01 194.400
2005-06-01 194.500
2005-07-01 195.400
2005-08-01 196.400
2005-09-01 198.800
2005-10-01 199.200
2005-11-01 197.600
2005-12-01 196.800
2006-01-01 198.300
2006-02-01 198.700
2006-03-01 199.800
2006-04-01 201.500
2006-05-01 202.500
2006-06-01 202.900
2006-07-01 203.500
2006-08-01 203.900
2006-09-01 202.900
2006-10-01 201.800
2006-11-01 201.500
2006-12-01 201.800
2007-01-01 202.416
2007-02-01 203.499
2007-03-01 205.352
2007-04-01 206.686
2007-05-01 207.949
2007-06-01 208.352
2007-07-01 208.299
2007-08-01 207.917
2007-09-01 208.490
2007-10-01 208.936
2007-11-01 210.177
2007-12-01 210.036
2008-01-01 211.080
2008-02-01 211.693
2008-03-01 213.528
2008-04-01 214.823
2008-05-01 216.632
2008-06-01 218.815
2008-07-01 219.964
2008-08-01 219.086
2008-09-01 218.783
2008-10-01 216.573
2008-11-01 212.425
2008-12-01 210.228
2009-01-01 211.143
2009-02-01 212.193
2009-03-01 212.709
2009-04-01 213.240
2009-05-01 213.856
2009-06-01 215.693
2009-07-01 215.351
2009-08-01 215.834
2009-09-01 215.969
2009-10-01 216.177
2009-11-01 216.330
2009-12-01 215.949
2010-01-01 216.687
err.. I mean hired.
god damn I can’t think straight today.
SAS
well just figure 3% on 200k is 6k per year x 5 years = 30k
As they say, ‘re always goes up!!!’
just saw Andrew Caplin’s page
if they make a movie,
they need Christopher Walken to play him
SAS
dono kurai shiharau no desu ka ？
As they say, ‘re always goes up!!!’
Thats what I told these son of a guns on the tele from Japan.
If anyone should know, its those SOBs.
man, who is worse at trying to haggle the Russians or the asians?
All I know, take me back to Jamaica.
and no, I don’t do the hedonism.
SAS
Veto,
average rate of annual inflation has been 1.8% since 2006
Average annual inflation based on St Loius FED CPI
05-06 2.85%
06-07 3.84%
07-08 -0.36%
08-09 1.00%
09-10 1.83%
“average rate of annual inflation has been 1.8% since 2006″
hyde, interesting, then i get $218,660 as a 2010 value using 1.8% rate.
Veto,
the average is slewed in this case due to the large divergence between individual values.
if you calculate it on a monthly basis it comes to 227K
gator (243)-
I got a niece and nephew who went to Pingry. Niece is in Vegas, yanking and drilling indigents’ teeth. Nephew is racking up big dental school bills at Penn. Both will be deep six figures in debt when they hit the real world.
Niece is a smart cookie. Getting an MBA while she’s doing her residency.
hyde (245)-
Pretty sure the Playboy Club is now off the Russkies’ strike list.
Veto,
If we want to be really @nal about it then the answer to SAS’s question depends on the month he bought the property:
purchase date Current 2010 value
Jan-2005 $227,254.33
Feb-2005 $225,950.99
Mar-2005 $224,197.62
Apr-2005 $222,699.90
May-2005 $222,929.01
Jun-2005 $222,814.40
Jul-2005 $221,788.13
Aug-2005 $220,658.86
Sep-2005 $217,994.97
Oct-2005 $217,557.23
Nov-2005 $219,318.83
Dec-2005 $220,210.37
veto (252)-
He’s working a deal with J@ck B@uer.
Doom,
There are some interesting satellite relay/communications stations in sussex
soosh (255)-
Heard bits of it. The guy is absolutely right.
Smoke ‘em while you got ‘em. Doom is nigh.
ha..ha.. ha
“J@ck B@uer”
That guy is puddy cat.
SAS
sas (265)-
We speak the same language as Japan. The language of spin the presses until they overheat and explode.
hyde (271)-
I don’t think sas needs directions to a body shampoo parlor.
SAS
you want excitement? Play options and FX with money you borrowed from a mobbed up loan shark :)
[265] sas
Sumimasen. Nihongo kawa wakarimasen
“you want excitement?”
excitement doesn’t make money. It just gets you beat up, divorced, or an empty wallet.
wanna make some jack, its best to be bored, and keep a low profile.
That why I love to play chess in the park or a game of pinochle.
SAS
278 – chck those calcs bro. it goes down then up when it should be going down down down the closer you get to 2010.
“you want excitement?”
well, there was that one time we got the VIP section at the nudity lounge. It was 2K minimum at table.
Talk about an after hrs party.. baby!
Then there was the ol’ quarter trick that one night in Singapore.
wow, you can still teach an old dog new tricks.
:P
SAS
White House: If GOP Filibusters, We’ll Pass Health Reform Via Reconciliation
The game of chicken commenceth — right now.
In the course of unveiling Obama’s new health reform proposal on a conference call with reporters this morning, White House advisers made it clearer than ever before: If the GOP filibusters health reform, Dems will move forward on their own and pass it via reconciliation.
http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/health-care/white-house-if-gop-filibusters-well-pass-health-reform-via-reconciliation/
If these guys keep the BS up there will be small private airplanes crashing all over the US.
The Martinsville Pingry is just 1.5 miles from my new house. I’m not tempted to send my kid there. I don’t like the government monopoly on school, but I’m not sure I’d even send my kid to Pingry for for free. Learning to deal with government bureaucrats is an increasingly valuable skill in the US, after all.
There are a couple of schools I would like, but they’re both in California:
LePort Schools and VanDamme Academy
SAS
just poking fun at you
A forebearer to NJ?
In order to crawl from beneath crushing debt and reach fiscal solvency, Illinois legislators must choose from a series of options that range from bad to worse, according to a prominent watchdog group.
The Civic Federation wants to launch an intervention that includes significant budget cuts and the largest tax increase package in Illinois history, all in an effort to save the state from a $12.8 billion budget deficit.
“Doomsday is here for the state of Illinois,” said Laurence Msall, Civic Federation President, to the Sun-Times.
The group says it would support a state income tax increase from 3 percent to 5 percent. It also recommends the state tax retirees’ pension and Social Security checks be taxed for the first time at the same rate as workers’ paychecks. They want another $1 increase on a pack of cigarettes and to eliminate $181 million in corporate tax breaks.
Veto,
Calc looks fine. The fluctuation is due to me using monthly inflation rates which are much noisier then annual rates.
“dono kurai shiharau no desu ka ？”
depends on experience.
if good, and no “ughs”
SAS
Sumimasen (excuse me or sorry). Nihongo (Japanese) kawa (?) wakarimasen (don’t understand)
man, you are Fired before hired.
lol
:P
SAS
While towns and states certainly need to make substantial cuts in spending. It would appear that the real millstone is pension retirement benefits that have been promised and we actually have ZERO chance of fully paying out.
This means we are royally F’d. As the boomers will fight tooth and nail to maintain those benefits.
It raises the question: The state may have promised those benefits, but what right do they have to live off the backs of those who most likely has no say in the matter?
the states and towns were essentially criminally negligent file suit, or just string a few up
I have been reading this blog for quite a while and want to thank all of you for all the information posted on this site. I have learned a lot and credit you all for avoiding what would have been a costly purchasing mistake. I have one question, if anyone would be so kind to respond… bought a small mix-use property in orange county, NY in ’05. Have lost about 75k already due to bad tenants. Wife and I have tried to sell it. It has been on the market for 2 years and no bites, nothing at all! We don’t own a primary home yet. Any suggestions on what course of action we can take now. We are desparate and sick of throwing good money after bad.
“bought a small mix-use property”
lot size?
SAS
297 Hyde
Forget lawsuits. Just throwing good money after bad. What we need are revenue producers. Like Politician cage matches to the death. Or public floggings and stonings. On pay per view, of course.
A. West-
The Jean Claude Van Damme Academy? I think would approve of the skills needed that can be taught by Jean Claude but not so sure he’d approve of the uniform.
298 chef
Don’t take this the wrong way, but if its been on the market for two years with no bites, the properTy is overpriced. Drop the price by at least 20% and see if you can unload the place and cut your losses.
Anyone have any friends living in Vermont? Any opinions?
I was up there recently playing some gigs at Charlie-Os up in Montpelier. Love that town.
My limited experience with VT, it kind of traditional, with a good arts vibe. Conservative in the traditional sense ( not like the Big Government sense we have now): they’d like to be left alone. Guns, marriage, weed…I get the feeling they want you to mind your own business.
That said, it gets brutally cold and the snow can be intimidating.
Court Enjoins Gov. Christie’s Executive Order on COAH; Plans for New Homes, Jobs to Move Forward
The Appellate Division of the New Jersey Superior Court today issued an order enjoining Gov. Chris Christie’s February 9 Executive Order that had placed an indefinite hold on the state’s housing policies. The order, in response to papers filed by Fair Share Housing Center (FSHC) on Monday, requires the Council on Affordable Housing (COAH) to go forward with plans to build 45,000 new homes and create hundreds of thousands of jobs statewide.
“Throughout New Jersey, we can now move forward with creating thousands of homes, many of which are shovel-ready but held up by municipal red tape.” Peter J. O’Connor, Esq., Executive Director of FSHC said. “We look forward to working with non-profit organizations, builders, municipalities, and the Christie Administration to meet the high demand for starter homes, and need for jobs.”
The Court’s order requires COAH to continue work, including on plans for several hundred new homes that were scheduled for a vote the day after the Executive Order was instituted. The Court also has required further briefs in the matter from both FSHC and the Attorney General, and scheduled oral argument on the matter for March 16.
Ket comparing oct 05 to dec 05, your values go from 217k to 220k but there weren’t neg monthly cpi rates in 2005. So if he bought in dec, the adj value today would be smaller, not larger, than if he bought in oct.ya know?
297- This past wk.end there was a guest on C-Span who was discussing this very issue (pension funding for states). She said that the states are absolutely obligated to fulfill their promised pensions. They cannot deny the benefits that were promised to the state employees.
I really can’t recall her name or her organization but her group had done a state-by-state comparison of pension funds which were 1) in good shape 2) needs improvement 3) in need of serious help (or something to that effect). Actually was surprised that NJ fell into category 2. So, if she is correct the state must honor its pension obligations, no matter what.
306, was Pew Research Center. I think NJ was in category 3. could be wrong
[296] sas
That was the point.
[296] sas
But I did know enough to surprise visiting judges during my clerkship, and to amuse my banking clients, who once convened a conference call with me after we successfully avoided a crisis, then all yelled into the phone at once “Arigato.”
To which I replied “do itamashita.”
They laughed uproariously.
Was wondering if this was going to be a factor (a la the early ’80′s)
“As if the credit markets aren’t already under enough pressure, the mass intrusion of state and federal debt will only make matters worse.
At a time when credit availability is at a premium, the federal government has launched its biggest series of Treasury auctions yet while more states are issuing debt in order to support their spending needs.
Consumers and businesses looking to borrow and investors trying to find a way to navigate a marketplace heading toward higher interest rates will find the conditions daunting, experts say.
“Clearly the government is not the 800-pound gorilla—it’s the 8,000-pound gorilla in the credit markets nowadays,” says Mike Larson, analyst at Weiss Research in Jupiter, Fla. “These numbers are just so mind-boggling. Really what’s going on is you have intractable debt and deficit problems in the country that neither side wants to tackle in a meaningful way, so the market is doing it for them.”
The phenomenon in which public entities push private borrowers out of the market is often referred to as “crowding out.” The result usually is higher borrowing rates and more difficult choices for investors who have to make sure they’re not putting their money in assets that are sensitive to interest rate moves.
While that problem specifically has not hit the market full bore yet, the signs for intense credit pressure are there.
“You are crowding out a lot of other borrowing from the private sector and are at the very least pushing up interest rates,” says Michael Pento, chief economist at Delta Global Advisors. “We have this huge system of artificially low interest rates and that is in the process of reversing.”
/snip
So John, I suspect I don’t want to head back into munis yet, right?
February 18, 2010
Eight States Have Shortchanged Pensions, Pew Study Finds
By MARY WILLIAMS WALSH
Eight states have been given failing scores for their pension management under a new grading system developed by the Pew Center on the States, which also found a $1 trillion gap between what all 50 states have promised their workers and what they have set aside.
The Pew center said on Wednesday that Alaska, Colorado, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, New Jersey and Oklahoma had, in essence, failed its new test because they made no meaningful progress on keeping their retiree benefit plans sound. The worst case was Illinois, with a $54 billion gap between the cost of the benefits it had promised to pay retirees over the next 30 years and the amount it had set aside.
“Recessions and investment losses played smaller roles in the creation of this problem,” said Susan K. Urahn, the center’s managing director. “To a significant degree, the $1 trillion gap reflects states’ own policy choices and lack of discipline.”
The center based its measurements on data provided by the states as of June 30, 2008 — the most recent generally available — so any changes made since then would not have been factored into the scoring.
The data also did not capture the worst of the market crash, which occurred in the fall of 2008. Ms. Urahn said that as a result, the $1 trillion figure probably understated the problem.
By devising a simple scoring system for state pension funds, the Pew center was adding a new layer to the analysis now done primarily by credit rating agencies like Moody’s and Fitch. The agencies have increasingly tried to take stock of public retirement plans when rating how likely each state will be to pay its bonds.
Pension plans have grown so large and costly in some places that they can compete with bondholders for scarce state dollars. But ranking them is notoriously difficult because no two state pension systems are identical, and the variations can make comparisons extremely misleading.
The Pew center’s grading system took into account just a few simple factors, like whether states were making adequate contributions every year; how big any shortfalls were, relative to the size of the state payroll; and whether a state had managed to keep at least 80 cents on hand for every dollar it owed.
The center also looked at board effectiveness and the presence of any other retirement benefits, like health care. But it did not assign these factors points in its scoring system.
Nor did it try to determine whether some states were investing too aggressively, one of the pension world’s hottest controversies.
One of the main problems the center found was some states’ tendency, in lean years, to add too little money to their pension funds. Workers’ benefits kept growing while the contributions stopped.
Companies are required by law to put new money into their pension funds each year, but states and local governments are not. Instead, they receive nonbinding instructions from an actuary on how much to contribute.
If a state fails to contribute for a number of years, it can eventually fall so far behind that it has little chance of ever catching up. Many states appeared to have reached that point, the center found. The less they pay, the more their actuaries tell them to contribute the following year, and the problem snowballs.
In a news conference on Wednesday, Ms. Urahn noted that New Jersey had failed to contribute to its pension fund for more than a decade, and now the recommended yearly amounts had soared far beyond the state’s ability to pay.
“It is irresponsible to defer dealing with this problem, because the cost will only go up,” Ms. Urahn said. “And in the short term.”
New York State, by contrast, has not strayed far from its actuary’s instructions. So even though New York has been through an embarrassing pay-to-play pension scandal, its fund has not fallen behind.
Whine,
This is why we need to develop new revenue streams while reducing the potential outflow.
Think about it. Who could resist whitman vs Corzine in a steel cage deathmatch? How about if we throw in a tag team match of Sharpe James & Wayne Bryant vs McGreevey and Codey as an undercard?
311: I thought the bike paths were going to fix all this.
307: In hurrican parlance, NJ is a Cat 5.
Veto
on a monthly basis CPI did decrease by small amounts on a few occasions. Look at the data I posted
Veto
note that the data I used was NSA, not SA
SA data does not show the same small decrease
[293] al
Sooooo, maybe I tell the wife, if it’s Chicago, there had better be a gross-up.
The end is nigh….
I think someone robbed the bank down the street from my office…..
re: #312 – I would put my money on Sharpe James, he can be found here.
http://www.bop.gov/iloc2/InmateFinderServlet?Transaction=IDSearch&needingMoreList=false&IDType=IRN&IDNumber=28791-050&x=75&y=8
Hon. James David Manning says Obama was CIA operative who used Columbia University as a cover up to go to Pakistan in 1981 when the United States and the Taliban worked together against Russia.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WedxY61d60&feature=player_embedded
318-
Freedy or that guy from Rolling Stone?
Postal Service ‘running out of cash’
The U.S. Postal Service could become insolvent if Congress doesn’t approve five-day mail delivery and change the way the agency funds its retiree health benefits, according to the agency’s top financial official.
“We will need [some assistance from Congress] or we will have difficulty paying all of our obligations this year,” said Joe Corbett, the Postal Service’s chief financial officer. “And going into next year, we might not have enough cash to operate. … We are dangerously close to running out of cash.”
The Postal Service posted a $297 million loss for the first quarter of fiscal 2010, which ended Dec. 31, 2009. Mail volume for that period fell by 8.9 percent. But that was an improvement over the previous quarter, when volume fell by 12.4 percent; and over the first quarter of 2009, when volume dropped 9.3 percent.
But the bigger financial picture for the Postal Service remains grim: Mail volume has dropped from a peak of 212 billion pieces in 2006 to 167 billion pieces today. And Corbett said the agency, which has faced multibillion-dollar deficits in the last few years, is running out of ways to cut costs.
Managers have already slashed 28 million work hours in fiscal 2010, and they’re on pace to cut 93 million in total this year — the equivalent of about 52,000 full-time employees. Those cuts come on top of the 115 million work hours that were cut in 2009. The Postal Service doesn’t plan any layoffs; Corbett said those cuts will come through attrition.
http://www.federaltimes.com/article/20100221/DEPARTMENTS02/2210307/1018/undefined#pluckcomments
Sign me up for gov run healthcare. They did such a good job delivering mail.
It is a small lot, maybe, 20×50.
Does anyone want to take a stab at this chart?
Commercial real estate delinquicies.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/S4D3o3XHq2I/AAAAAAAAH5U/RLE0ayRxHtA/s1600-h/cre-26.png
we have 5 post offices within 5 miles or each other that are opened on saturdays and have generally light volume. WTF do they mean they are running out of things to cut?
326: Note to self – stay far away from the post office.
Ok that would def explain the increasing amounts.
Well:
Filled out and submitted the paperwork for the Firearms Purchaser ID card. They really make it difficult for you. In the old days, you got fingerprinted at the PD in your town. Now they have outsourced this function. I had to make an appointment in early march and very, very, very far from my house. I want to move on this ASAP, so I did not want to wait until mid to late march for an appointment closer to home.
re: #326 – add that to the list along with IRS, town hall, etc.
Ya’ll Come Back Now~
[318] chifi
I can hear it now on the police scanner:
“Be on the lookout for male suspect, white, approximately 5’10, 180 pounds, answers to Freedy . . .”
323 chef
How much did you pay in 2005 and how much have you been asking over the last two years? Any improvements made to the property?
chef (298)-
Try dropping the price to a level that will actually sell the place. Things aren’t getting any better for the next 20-40 years or so.
If you sell short, so be it.
beer (300)-
Amazing how many people are coming around to my idea of what constitutes great entertainment.
Schumpeter says:
February 22, 2010 at 9:50 am
gator (63)-
Yes. Of the “holy trinity” in RE, you only get two out of three. Since price/payment is usually capped by either your common sense-or the bank’s limits- you get to pick between #1 and #3:
1. location
2. price/payment
3. quality of housing
“Are those my really my only options?”
yes, you can get all 3. start a business where you work from home. preferably, it is internet-related. low overhead. get to move to bucks county!
/darn. promised i wouldnt be that guy
deer (312)-
Only works if McGreevey dresses up in a luchador outfit.
al (322)-
Time for another anthrax scare.
Internet business from home? Oy vey.
Homeskool your kids too, while you’re at it.
for the apocalyptic set:
https://www.usaemergencysupply.com/food_storage/cereal_six_way_rolled_grain.htm
334 Doom
If folks will pay to watch NASCAR just to (maybe) see a deadly crash, my idea is a shoo-in. Besides, with the government running it, we can have the live venue be a casino hotel for the high rollers in attendance. Complete with legal (albeit heavily taxed) hookers and drugs.
The only just punishment for those that got us here is to give their lives creating revenue to resolve the mess they made.
I’ll settle for hard labor for life if that’s all I can get. But it has to be on pay per view.
I forgot to mention all the revenue that could be generated through the sale of organ and tissue “donations” from the participants.
328: “Filled out and submitted the paperwork for the Firearms Purchaser ID card. They really make it difficult for you. …I had to make an appointment in early march and very, very, very far from my house. ”
I wonder what organization known as ACORN-DOJ would say if Voting Rights were granted in a similar fashion.
onthebrink [129],
To live in Ridgewood, you must own a puggle and your kids must be dressed in Le Petite Bebe clothes and be named either Davis, Graydon, Trent, Parker, Blair, Ellery or Madison. Otherwise, forget it.
311 njescapee
It seems to me that there is something wrong when future workers are responsible for past politicians mismanagement.
At some point cuts will be forced and we will see reductions in pension benefits. It will happen one way or another. There simply wont be enough money and as time passes the people are going to get quite upset funding pensions that will be orders gold plated compared to all but top executives retirement packages.
beer (341)-
I believe you could charge a PPV premium if the broadcasts feature vivisection of the losers.
jamil (342)-
You have an uncanny ability to be a complete bummer.
Oh, and you need to have your pony tail pulled through the back of your Yankees cap while pushing a Bugaboo stroller with an insulated pouch to store your sushi. And if you’re really edgy, you’re wearing a Red Sox cap.
322- So the Post Office is in trouble but truth be told I love the postal service I get. Really, I do. I have had the same mailman for almost 20 years and the guy is more dependable than most of my former co-workers. And, he has a really great attitude. Maybe he’s a rarity though but I appreciate him. Not saying I don’t occasionally get a wrong piece of mail, but over 20+ years he has a great track record. On the day of the almost blizzard a few weeks ago he showed up even earlier than he sometimes does. He is one guy I hope they treat well.
ww4beer,
Paid 115k in ’05 on the premise that leyland Alliance was building “luxury” condos on the waterfront (Newburgh). Redid the little duplex upstairs. It’s also a historic building.
Newburgh? Hold onto your place! Holder may move the 9/11 trials there. Newburgh is lobbying hard to host them.
[sarcasm off]
NJ escapee
If people have a problem with income redistribution by the government, then how are these out of control pension plans any different.
Unfortunately, there is no winner here. everyone will end up pissed of, from the retiree’s who get their pensions cut to the taxpayers who feel that the pensions are still to high after some level of cuts.
Funds should be clawed back from every politicians who took part in this debacle. Or perhaps we institute a sort of pension alimony, where politicians must give up a % of their income to help fund the pensions.
Guess your place might take another hit to value if AQ sets off a dirty bomb there.
chef-
Where are you a chef? How old are you?
I need to eliminate the possibility I know you or ever worked with you.
Doom
NJ spectator sport?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3lbruj53LM
I’m sure we have enough politicians
349 chef
You paid a buck fifteen five years ago and you’ve lost 75K due to “bad tenants” in that time?
How much are you asking?
Hyde, penions are rough shape but biggest problem facing state retiree funds is healthcare. It appears that virtually all states have no money in reserve i.e., use pay as they go for current beneficiaries. I’m betting obama’s healthcare plan is the backdoor bailout to pay for the states’ retiree benefits.
Cascading sunny events today. Here’s the next one:
“A new proposal by House Republicans, lead by Rep. Scott Garrett (R., N.J.), is seeking to address changes to Fannie and Freddie accounting, along the lines of what has been previously proposed by Zero Hedge, and to not only include the GSE’s losses as part of the Federal budget, but to also count the debt from the two mortgage zombies toward the nation’s total statutory debt limit. As we stated previously, it is only semantics at this point which distinguish the GSE obligations from other Treasury obligations. Yet it is not just us, but the administration’s very own Peter Orzsag who was pushing for consolidated GSE accounting two years ago. Yet with GSE debt most recently at $6.3 trillion, or about half of the existing Treasury debt, this would mean total US debt would not only explode by 50% overnight, but the recently increased debt ceiling would be immediately breached and America would find itself in technical default (where it really is right now for all technical purposes).”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/republican-push-count-gse-debt-toward-statutory-debt-limit-implies-americas-real-debt-gdp-13
The new Greece is…us????
“A memo written by Garrett’s office, which was released Monday, states that “now that the federal government has explicitly backed the operations of the GSEs, there should no longer be a distinction between their debt … and the debt issued by the Department of the Treasury.”
Tilt.
Hey Final Doom,
Ashley Cole got dumped.
http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/people/cheryl-cole-dumps-footballer-husband-ashley-by-text-message-20100223-osce.html
He was allegedly drilling into many nets so to speak.
His wife looks like a really hot mannequin or wax figure.
Doom,
I believe that adds anohter 800 billion to 1 trillion in debt to the USG.
Got SDR’s?
Safe,
A beetr pic of ms Cole
http://www.myavidgolfer.com/resources/cheryl_tweedy_2.jpg
Safe
or perhaps this:
http://www.marieclaire.co.uk/imageBank/c/Cheryl-Cole13.jpg
Hyde,
And I’m all out of onions.
#342 Yeah but the taxes are lower.
Fun facts from CNBC
“Here’s the list of the lowest scoring wealth centers, along with the percentage of residents earning more than $200,000:
Reading, PA–0 percent
Camden, NJ–0.3 percent
Flint, MI–0 percent
Brownsville, TX–0.7 percent
Gary, IN–0.4 percent
Detroit, MI–0.6 percent
Cleveland, OH–0.7 percent
Dayton, OH–0.5 percent
Erie, PA–0.5 percent
Rochester, NY–0.8 percent”
There’s someone in Camden making over 200K????????
(yes, and he can be found with his posse, sitting in his bentley, down by the future bike path—think Wesley Snipes in New Jack City).
Wow,
I’ve spent a good amount of time in five of those places. Saw a great blues show in Flint. Didn’t think Dayton was that bad. Rochester is getting there. Perhaps they all need bike trails to save them?
watch Gummo to learn all you need to know about OH
342:
strange. . . . I find myself agreeing with Jamil.
never thought that would happen!
Nom
.3% ???
Camden has a population of 517,234.
.3% mean 1500 people in camden are over 200K
DAMN
365 Comrade Nom
Reading: a major sh!thole other than the ballpark. Love those Reading Phillies. One of the best parks in the minors, old and not as nice as the new parks in the Eastern League but the fans, food and atmosphere are the best around.
Camden: who’s making 200K? Mayor and school superintendent, who else? Wasn’t there just a big blow up because the mayor and assorted appointees were giving themselves raises when the state basically runs everything there and has for years?
US will suffer its own Greek crisis
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/us-will-suffer-its-own-greek-crisis.aspx
343 Gary, saw a new one the other day “Ahnie” that kid will have her name spelled wrong till the day she dies
Safe
here you go:
http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2008/01_04/cherylLL2501_468x806.jpg
and dont worry, i hear that the grocery stores are open late AND they have a sale on the 10Lb bag of onions
[369] hyde
You can bet that a approx. 1/3 are municipal employees, and the rest are “self-employed” in the “pharmaceutical” industry.
Actually, that list may be calculated by job location. So figure places like Cooper Union and Rutgers Law (doctors, administrators, professors) as well as the authority fatcats at DRPA, and that skews the stats upward.
Safe bet that none of them actually LIVE by the bikepath.
Doom
Correction. FNE, FRM have a total debt of 4 Trillion
Whats a few more trillion between friends?
Al “The Thermostat” Gore says:
February 22, 2010 at 11:55 am
107.
That sounds like a good plan. A former Army intelligence officer told me Western Pennsylvania would be safe.
the portion of the state known as ‘pennsyltucky’
Good luck with the FID morph. Mine took almost 18 months back in ’94. Just put my address change and ppp paperwork in. Supposedly they have to let you know in 30 days but don’t hold your breath.
Hyde,
She’s smoking hot. Her husband is a moron.
Nom
Re american greece and fannie/freddie;
Sounds like you might want to speed up the nompound development as well as your training classes.
I’m guessing that extra 4 trillion nin debt is going to hurt a bit.
Is anyone still under the impression that all of this debt could actually ever be paid back?????
Safe,
maybe she isnt very “interactive” in Boudoir…..
Or perhaps he’s just an idiot….
Anyone have or fire and FNP-45? Looks interesting.
And quick, FN is having a sale on their carbines!!!!
final doom,
30k down, about 7 in closing cost and 8k a yr in mortgage pmnts give a take a year and 5k in repairs/minor upgrades. currently work as a chef in the wall st area.
Final Doom says:
February 22, 2010 at 12:52 pm
Birkenstocks on a woman are a guarantee of more body hair than a woolly mammoth.
lol.
i cant believe how much time was spent talking about Vermont today.
376 Yikes
The most apt description of Pennsylvania I ever heard was “Philadelphia on one end, Pittsburgh on the other and Alabama in between”.
BTW – do they close the schools in Bucks County on the first day of deer season? The schools are closed just about everywhere else in PA on that day.
One thing I love about PA is all the local market type food brands. There are sooo many, most are really good and available in NJ.
hey this blog is great. I’m glad I came by this blog. Maybe I can contribute in the near future. PM ME on Yahoo AmandaLovesYou702 Thank you day721
382 chef
OK, it sounds like your trying to get over 200K for a property that you bought in 2005 for 115K and only spent 5K on upgrades and maintenance over five years.
Is this correct?
If so, you’re dreaming. You don’t need a real estate agent. You need a fcuking magician.
#387 beer,
I see you’ve been studying Gary again.
“AmandaLovesYou702″
beat it jackass.
we don’t need your dial a date, or your from russia with love.
SAS
and Glen Beck is numskull, and so is your beloved Omama.
SAS
Dude, I never said I was trying to sell it for 200k. Where did you get that number from??
Hyde,
I’m going with idiot.
nycchef,
What are you trying to sell it for?
nycchef,
if it was me, I’d try to thnk of alternative use for it. Other than rent it out. Start a buisness in it? or its its a decent lot.
Your a chef, start to small urban farm, and use items into your “chef” buisness. Branding that sustainability and organic cooking.
You can do a whole lot, with a little land.
I know someone who bought up some land on the cheap out in Michigan, starting a free range poultry farm.
ok, he ain’t never going to be daddy warbucks, but in less than one years time, he is turning a profit and maken a living..
besides, once inflation raises food prices, and maintain investment, and inflation won’t eat away at you.
you dig?
just throwing out thoughts.
SAS
Safe,
You missed the most important part of the article. A US government worker is now f**king a citizen of ANOTHER country. Rally on.
“The final straw for the singer came over the weekend when it was revealed Ashley Cole had cheated on her with US government worker Ann Corbitt, 28, when Chelsea were on a US tour last July.”
“Birkenstocks on a woman are a guarantee of more body hair than a woolly mammoth.”
If the 1970s are back then your getting it all back. Can’t pick and choose now. Give me the Playmates of the 70s over the Whores Next Doot anyday.
#115
“John has taught us all a very important lesson that we all might be able to learn from.
That lesson is that the govt is prob not going to let it all melt down, ever.
So alot of our fears, while legitimate, will probably never ever happen.”
BINGO
Door, that is.
willwork4beer says:
February 22, 2010 at 9:14 pm
376 Yikes
The most apt description of Pennsylvania I ever heard was “Philadelphia on one end, Pittsburgh on the other and Alabama in between”.
BTW – do they close the schools in Bucks County on the first day of deer season? The schools are closed just about everywhere else in PA on that day.
replace Alabama w/ Kentucky. then again, Alabama & Kentucky are the same damn place. But ‘Pennsyltucky’ has a good ring to it.
i have no clue when deer season is, or when it ends. got guns, but they’re for home security.
Plaxico Burress, Wife Sued For $3.3 Million In South Florida Foreclosure Case
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=tsn-plaxicoburresswifesu&prov=tsn&type=lgns
“For $30K per year, it would probably be much smarter to invest it and when your kid gets out of high school you can give him a $600,000 check to start a business.”
#212
I gave made this point to my wife several times. Just fund a business for your kid instead of spending $200k on college. You have to be willing to have control over the business for the first few years since it is unreasonable to expect an 18 yr old not to spend it on frivolous crap, so it is not just a money investment.
365.Comrade Nom Deplume says:
February 22, 2010 at 8:10 pm
There’s someone in Camden making over 200K????????
(yes, and he can be found with his posse, sitting in his bentley, down by the future bike path—think Wesley Snipes in New Jack City).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell_Soup_Company
397.
Only when they are ready to pull the plug.
Real Estate agent listed it for 150k.
Frustrated Owner Bulldozes Home Ahead Of Foreclosure
Man Says Actions Intended To Send Message To Banks
http://www.wlwt.com/news/22600154/detail.html
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/homepage/20100219_Student_claims_school_spied_on_him_via_computer_webcam.html
safe (359)-
Inter and Mourinho are gonna put a beating on Chelsea…even if they don’t win the game. There will also be 90,000 animals at the San Siro oozing pure hatred; Inter’s fans are even nastier than the team.
Figures the only big team with no debt problem is getting undone because two of their biggest players have a zipper problem.
hyde (362)-
Quality.
Landy did Cole a favor when he broke his ankle.
If the average property tax bill in NJ is $7,000 and the tuition at Pingry or MKA is 30,000, if you have two kids in the Chatham or Glen Ridge School system where taxes might average $12,000, the taxes actually don’t seem all that bad.
safe (378)-
He blew it by tagging a secretary in Seattle. Natch, the secretary blabs the whole story to a Brit tabloid.
chef (382)-
Drop the price and stop bleeding out. You’re not recouping any of that.
#411 Doom
He’s an idiot. Much bigger one than Tiger. Cheryl is smoking hot and earns big money.
chef (404)-
Agent is a ho for either talking you into that price or taking the listing if that’s the price you came up with.
Figure out the 2002 value of your place. Put THAT price on it, and it will sell.
Three-toed sloth wakes up and scratches himself at #410.
Also manages to out himself as a limousine liberal.
safe (413)-
If there’s reincarnation, I’m f’in coming back as an English footballer.
I’m gonna parlay an eighth-grade education, bad teeth, a drinking problem and a hair trigger temper into banging every model in Europe.
Doom,
She’s hotter than Angelina Jolie. Like a 26 year old Halle Barre
What are the average property taxes in Frederick?
410.plg says:
February 22, 2010 at 11:07 pm
If the average property tax bill in NJ is $7,000 and the tuition at Pingry or MKA is 30,000, if you have two kids in the Chatham or Glen Ridge School system where taxes might average $12,000, the taxes actually don’t seem all that bad.
Although the Property taxes may be somewhat pricey in our area, and the housing crisis is certainly causing a number of issues with our clients selling their homes, we try to explain from the outset that they may have to come way down from there original asking price to make a sale. Trying to avoid the long term tears by making sure everything is upfront really helps
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