Recession not so bad?


Experts: N.J. less hard-hit by recession, but projected for slower growth

The Garden State has withstood the economic downturn better than other parts of the country, with less dramatic increases in unemployment and availability rates in commercial real estate space, according to two local experts. But New Jersey’s relative stability has more to do with the state’s lack of growth than having a more robust economy than other states, they said.

In New Jersey, “we lost employment faster than in the prior two recessions,” said Rae Rosen, senior economist and assistant vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, speaking at the Newark Regional Business Partnership’s annual Real Estate Market Forecast in the Brick City Tuesday morning. The job loss isn’t as severe as it was in the 1989 downturn, which had close to an 8 percent decline, compared a current decline of about 6 percent.

But “the unemployment rate rose dramatically,” to 10.1 percent statewide in December 2009; the rate was even higher in the Ocean City and Atlantic City-Hammonton metropolitan areas and Hudson County, she said. “These aren’t typical of these areas.”

Private-sector job growth in the state declined 2.7 percent year-over-year in December, compared to 3.5 percent nationally, Rosen said. But breaking down job growth by sector, she noted that the state lost a large portion of its manufacturing jobs in the last two decades, so “the rate of loss wasn’t as bad.”

Overall in New Jersey, “the rate of loss wasn’t as bad as the nation, but going forward, it may not get a rapid pickup, either,” Rosen said.

While the United States and New York saw a big dip in office availability during the boom years between 2005 and 2007, the Garden State’s availability rate had “a slow but steady increase” during that time, and “a lot of that is because of the lack of private-sector job growth in the state.”

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377 Responses to Recession not so bad?

  1. freedy says:

    Well, looks like NJ is in the Clear.

    No problem here

  2. grim says:

    Plenty of great new jobs, just scanning the headlines this morning, I see all sorts of good news.

    A new Sonic in North Bergen, and 7-11 is planning to expand in state.

    I hear that new racetrack is South Jersey is bringing 80 jobs to market too! And the fact that over a thousand people showed up to apply just shows Jersey residents are just raring to work.

  3. freedy says:

    well grim, they gots to spend the food stamps

  4. Final Doom says:

    Every day, I wake up and realize all over again that you have to be out of your f-ing mind to open and operate a small business in this state.

    What was I thinking?

  5. freedy says:

    a good business may be teaching english as the language

  6. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Borrowers Miss Out on Billions in Savings

    The Federal Reserve has pushed mortgage rates to near half-century lows, but millions of U.S. homeowners haven’t benefited from that because they can’t—or won’t—refinance.

    Falling home prices have left many owners with little or no equity, making it harder to qualify for refinancing. Moreover, stricter lending standards and higher fees by banks and mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and declining incomes have made it tougher and less attractive for borrowers to seek new loans.

    Around 37% of all borrowers with 30-year conforming fixed-rate mortgages—who collectively hold about $1.2 trillion of home loans—have mortgage rates of 6% or higher, according to investment bank Credit Suisse. Many could reduce their rates by a full percentage point if they refinanced at current rates, about 5%. More than half could lower their rates nearly three-quarters of a percentage point, according to Credit Suisse.

    But new refinance applications in January stood near their lowest levels in the past year. Weekly data compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association also show that refinance activity has been muted, considering that rates are so low.

    “Traditionally, these borrowers would be aggressively refinancing,” said Mahesh Swaminathan, senior mortgage strategist at Credit Suisse.

    About a quarter of all mortgage holders are “underwater”—they owe more on the house than it’s worth—which normally makes it impossible to get refinancing: Banks want collateral to back the value of home loans they make. The Obama administration recently extended a program intended to help underwater homeowners refinance, but few people have tapped it so far. The program has faced logistical hurdles, delays and confusion from brokers and lenders.

    Some people are so far underwater, refinancing ends up being out of the question. John Albright, a retired Navy officer in Manassas, Va., hasn’t been able to refinance because the value of his home has plunged. He figures its market value is now around $275,000, but he and his wife still owe more than $500,000 on their mortgage.

  7. Cindy says:

    I know folks here appreciate a good read by Michael Lewis…..

    Excerpt from a Vanity Fair article out April 2010 featured @ Bloomberg:

    “The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine”

  8. freedy says:

    Many Americans still do not realize what has happened to the equity in the house.

    Many still think ,oh its coming back in a few years. Even if they are underwater by

  9. veto that says:

    Where’s the recession?

  10. Cindy says:

    Gator @77 yesterday

    CA -.38 COLA = They are taking money away this year. “LAUSD agrees to 5200 layoff notices”

    Union being asked for concessions to save jobs. No dice.

    My district – Pay cuts, reduced benefits, furlough days…the difference? Non-union….

  11. freedy says:

    i guess LA is out of money, Trenton next?

  12. House Whine says:

    10 -Cindy- I have a question for you about laying off of tenured teachers. I was under the impression that tenured teachers could never be laid off, save for the proof of gross misconduct by same.
    Do they get around this by saying that the position itself is eliminated?

    In your opinion do you think the union should have conceded some of their benefits to save jobs? As an outsider here in NJ it seems like a no-brainer but I guess the union didn’t want to give an inch and now there are going to be a whole lot of newly unemployed folks.

  13. Final Doom says:

    Will we look back at 2010 as the year of the short sale, or the year of cascading municipal bankruptcies?

    Embrace the doom.

  14. Final Doom says:

    whine (12)-

    When push comes to shove, unions always turn on their own. Those with seniority cut bait on junior members…who also shoulder more of the dues & fees burden while they’re still employed.

    Unions are perhaps the purest example of Ponzi schemes going. Only the first in- at the top of the pyramid- benefit.

  15. House Whine says:

    14- so, as usual, it all comes down to greed.

  16. Final Doom says:

    Ugh. Corslime on Squawk.

    I wonder if he’s having withdrawal symptoms from not being able to butt-r@pe the public on a daily basis anymore.

  17. chicagofinance says:

    Doom: did you see the Christie diatribe? It is a mental enema…seriously…watch it…

  18. Final Doom says:

    chi (17)-

    Yes, I did see it. Bring on the pain.

  19. john says:

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    (subordinated bank level). For more aggressive investors who can buy longer
    duration bonds, we recommend the Capital One 8.875s of 2040 (TRUPs). Among
    the regional banks, our favorite Buy / Overweight is the Fifth Third 4.5s of 2018.

    Funny in 1999 they only recommended their own bonds!

  20. Cindy says:

    12 – House Whine

    I seriously cannot relate. Our district has never handed out pink slips. It is VERY difficult to get hired to begin with – but once you are here – you are a valuable commodity.

    I was told that anyone hired after 2002 would have been laid off if our board policy allowed that option for balancing the budget. We have had a hiring freeze in force for three years so we are not seriously overstaffed – maybe “over” 50 full-time teachers.

    Many options are being considered at this time. They are offering a “Golden Handshake” with one-time stimulus dollars. We may run our own “sub” pool and continue to pay full-time teachers to sub in our district with full pay and benefits while attrition takes its course. We are looking at job share situations.
    Nothing is being ruled out.

    The rules for staffing have changed in the state of CA. We can now run 30 to 1 in the primary grades. So yes, positions have been eliminated.

    In education, you have step and column increases for those who are still taking classes and moving across the pay scale. When the state does not increase the funding at all, you still have to finance those changes – even though no one receives a “raise.” ( For my district – that is about a 2% increase a year.) The only way to accomplish that is with cuts.

    Those further along, like I am, don’t see any increase from step and column so the pay cuts will be just that – cuts. Those teachers still seeking units and in the profession for fewer years might break even this year.

    California will be in this position for several years. We are trying to put a five-year plan in place. Our goal is to maintain our current programs.

    We shall see. The union way to accomplish the cuts is to lay off employees but we have chosen a more difficult route.

  21. House Whine says:

    20 So, clearly it sounds like the non-union sector allows for a little more “creativity” in coming up with options to get through all this. Still sounds painful, but perhaps it is a bit fairer than the union’s options. And, I think I feel bad for any primary school teacher who has to be in charge of 30 children every day. That sounds exhausting.

  22. Final Doom says:

    whine (21)-

    Nothing there a cattle prod can’t handle.

    Yes, I had a teacher in grade school who kept one on his desk.

    “And, I think I feel bad for any primary school teacher who has to be in charge of 30 children every day. That sounds exhausting.”

  23. Final Doom says:

    That same teacher hung a classmate out a second floor window by his feet. Nothing happened to the teacher.

    Bring back the good old days, I say.

  24. Shore Guy says:

    “Falling home prices have left many owners with little or no equity, making it harder to qualify for refinancing. ”

    This sounds like the market working. Those who were prudent and who have equity, notwithstanding the downturn, get to take advantage of lower rates, wheras the imprudent don’t.

  25. Shore Guy says:

    whereas, even

  26. Final Doom says:

    The folks who ran my grade school were very influenced by the Cold War and the whole Russians beat us to space thing.

    We were all pushed relentlessly and basically told that if we don’t learn at an accelerated rate, our mommies and daddies would fry to a crisp in a nuclear holocaust.

    This, IMO, is an excellent atmosphere in which to foster academic achievement.

  27. Final Doom says:

    shore (25)-

    Don’t forget the new HAMP refi program. A borrower is supposed to be able to refi up to a 125 LTV.

    We will never allow the market to work. Doing so means curtains for the banksters.

  28. Final Doom says:

    It is easier- and more expedient- to drive the US back into the Dark Ages in the service of propping up the banksters.

  29. Shore Guy says:

    “she noted that the state lost a large portion of its manufacturing jobs in the last two decades, so “the rate of loss wasn’t as bad.”

    So, it has been a long slow trainwreck. I feel better now.

    Who needs icky manufacturing jobs when we have the finance sector. After all, those jobs can NEVER leave, because we are SO CLOSE to Wall Street.

  30. Final Doom says:

    All economic incentives have now been aligned to reward the stupid, imprudent, lazy, criminal and politically-connected.

    Good times.

  31. Shore Guy says:

    “refi up to a 125 LTV”

    Makes sense to me; after all, the initial financing of 100-105%, or so, worked out so well this past decade.

  32. Final Doom says:

    shore (30)-

    There’s a finite amount of actual products an economy can manufacture. However, financial engineering and fraud are boundless in their potential, since the gubmint has decided to abet them by printing endless amounts of money and allowing for deceptive accounting.

    We are transitioning from Alice in Wonderland finance as fantasy to being the new standard.

  33. Final Doom says:

    China wants to call our bluff? We have 11 aircraft carriers. How many do they have?

  34. Final Doom says:

    Want to scare the crap out of somebody? Send them a link to Memories of the Looting.

    A couple of friends of mine watched it recently & it got to both of them.

  35. Shore Guy says:

    Heck, even without the CVNs, our navy gives us a huge advantage. One decent attack sub can shut down the Strait of Malacca.

  36. NJGator says:

    Cindy – Here’s a post from our Yahoo Watercooler msg board. Disclaimer – the wife of the author is a member of the Montclair BOE. (Note – Shortly after this was posted ran a story stating that the MEA won’t reopen their contract)

    If we can put the emotion aside about union ‘givebacks’ to the school district
    here are some numbers that illustrate the impact of 1 per-cent reduction in the
    negotiated raises.

    For an individual veteran employee earning $80,000, 1% is $800/year, $67/month,
    and $15/week. Assuming a total 25% federal & state deductions, that is
    $11.50/week in lost take-home pay. That is the sum total of the impact of a 1%
    giveback on an individual.

    On the other hand, 1% of the $93,790,000 spent on personnel is $937,900. If we
    look at the $50,000 salary of the least senior teachers (the ones who will be
    layed off first), $937,900 can protect 19 teaching positions. If we start
    talking about lower paid aides, the number of saved jobs goes up.

    So district staff whose jobs are safe need to decide whether they are willing to
    forgo the equivalent of a weekly dinner-for-one at the local diner to protect
    the jobs of their less senior colleagues. We have extraordinary gifted and
    dedicated teachers in Montclair. I think, in a time of crisis, they will do the
    right thing.

    Two disclaimers:
    1.- I’m speaking for myself, only myself, and nobody but myself.
    2.- Please don’t quibble about the numbers. They are accurate, but not precise.
    They do illustrate the point.

  37. Shore Guy says:

    “They are accurate, but not precise.”

    Fantastic phrasing! It puts DC numbers in context: precise but not accurate.

    Or, as the old saying goes: The government measures with a micrometer, marks with chalk, then cuts with an ax.

  38. Final Doom says:

    gator (39)-

    Just goes to show that when push comes to shove, senior members in any of our Ponzi’d-up unions will always do the wrong thing. The unions are organized and incentivized to cannibalize, then jettison, the least senior in the group.

    “We have extraordinary gifted and dedicated teachers in Montclair. I think, in a time of crisis, they will do the right thing.”

    Maybe our best hope is that the pool of dupes who believe taking a union job is the path to a better life dries up. The stories of some of the people cut loose by these rackets are going to be disturbing…and very public in their airing.

  39. Final Doom says:

    None of this is going to change unless we move toward armed revolt.

  40. NJGator says:

    This one’s for you, Shore:

    Tapes indicate child directed planes at JFK airport

    NEW YORK — The Federal Aviation Administration is investigating whether a child directed planes from Kennedy Airport’s air traffic control tower.

    A child’s voice can be heard on a tape making five transmissions to pilots preparing for takeoff on Feb. 17. The recording was obtained by WFXT-TV in Boston.

    In one exchange, the child can be heard saying, “JetBlue 171 contact departure.”

    A male voice in the tower says: “That’s what you get, guys, when the kids are out of school.”

    The child later clears another plane for takeoff, and says, “Adios, amigo.”

    The FAA said in a statement: “Pending the outcome of our investigation, the employees involved in this incident are not controlling air traffic.” It added: “This behavior is not acceptable.”

  41. Final Doom says:

    Montclair should take a page from my town’s book. Fistfights, car-ramming and restraining orders are how our BOE gets it done. Keystone Kops, all the way.

    I’ve had an SAT tutor working with my daughter over the past few months. Last night, I overheard him say, “what the hell are they teaching you guys”.

    My daughter later informed me that he was giving her the first grammar lesson she has ever had. This, coming from a HS junior in a “Blue Ribbon” district.

    I spoke with the tutor at the end, and his response was eerie. He’s of the feeling that things like grammar don’t get taught anymore because we’re now into the first generation of the ignorant and uneducated dominating the teaching ranks.

  42. Final Doom says:

    Time to get to the office and let the leeches feed off me for a while.

  43. 3b says:

    #44 I see it all the time. So I say again to the youngsters on this board,if youy are buying purchasing based on so called school quality, you could in mnay cases be shocked at what you will find.

  44. Yikes says:

    Al “The Thermostat” Gore says:
    March 2, 2010 at 9:05 pm

    2. Eliminate public education funding through property taxes. Allow schools to compete for students by allowing parents to choose the school whether parochial or charter through vouchers.

    I think this is the worst idea of all-time. Worst than the Jets hiring Bruce Coslet.

    I have heard many republicans shout it from the roof-tops but ask any teacher and they’ll outline 37 reasons why it is terrible.

    for the record, i am not a teacher.

  45. 3b says:

    The summer reading program has gone the way of the dodo bird.

  46. scribe, The Princess of Paramus says:


    I just google’d “Memories of the Looting” and got multiple entries …could you post a link to the right one?

    Meanwhile, there’s something on the radio about a singles “meet market” event at a firing range in NYC tonight ..

  47. 3b says:

    I think this is the worst idea of all-time. Worst than the Jets hiring Bruce Coslet

    Give it time grasshopper. I too was like you at one time, but wait until your time comes, and you may change your tune dramatically.

  48. scribe, The Princess of Paramus says:

    Singles Night At The Firing Range
    Starts: Wednesday, March 3 2010 @ 6:45 PM
    Ends: Wednesday, March 3 2010 @ 9:45 PM
    Cost: $79.99 USD
    Location: West Side Pistol Range, 20 West 20th st (btw 5th/6th) New York, NY
    Spots taken: 14 — Total Spots: 18

  49. Mr Hyde says:

    Doom 35

    China has some lovely anti ship missles like the Moskit (sunburn), as well as a new ballistic anti-ship missile that is designed to be a single shot kill for US carriers.

    We have little defense against either of those anti-ship systems.

    if our carriers engage the chinese in their waters, we are going to lose a number of carriers, even if we win.

  50. Anon E. Moose says:


    Simple calculus for union bosses in negotiating givebacks v. layoffs — layoffs win every time. People working for less money than they made last year can vote for new union leadership. That means the only job not saved by givebacks is the union boss’.

    Laid off workers can’t vote the union president out of office. The leadership tells those still standing how he ‘saved’ their jobs and their salary; vote for me again. Those laid off go get jobs elsewhere and don’t come back; any new hires are new blood — no animosity.

  51. Anon E. Moose says:

    Oh yeah, and keep the dues money coming.

  52. Reggie Middleton:
    It’s Official: The US Housing Downturn Has Resumed in Earnest (nice charts baby)

    “One thing that I have been proven correct on thus far is the housing market. Despite what was probably at least a trillion dollars of effort directed at suspending real estate and real estate related assets, prices are resuming their downward slide after falling 28% nation wide, peak to trough, and over 50% in some areas.”

  53. Yikes says:


    The Teabaggers should quote Banksy as their motto: “I don’t believe in anything. I’m just here for the violence.”

    they should put this on their flag

  54. Cindy says:

    The cuts to education are hurting everyone. We have chosen to spend the $50,000 or so a year to field “C” team sports at our primary schools. That means 2,600 kids will participate in a team sport that may never again have that opportunity.

    If Michele Obama is truly worried about obesity in this country, she might want to think about that.

    How about the cuts to counseling staff? What about the kid who doesn’t quite fit in but goes out for drama or Destination Imagination? We are hurting kids by forcing districts to cut these programs.

  55. PGC says:

    #566 yikes

    They can’t take my banksy.

  56. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [47] yikes

    Actually, I was surprised by that as it is the liberals that want to end the reliance on property taxes for school funding.

    Al’s rant was more populist than republican, particularly since republicans want school control (and funding) to remain local, and don’t advocate protectionism, as Al did.

  57. Happy Daze says:

    13 Final Doom

    2011 will be the year of the 2-for-1 sale.

  58. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    I think it will be spelled “STUUPID”

    “PIIGS has become a financial crisis acronym to rival BRIC, ASAP and WML (whatever major loser for those over 15). Now, though, a new acronym is being talked about in the corridors of power and it is all about the economy, STUPID.

    STUPID is said to stand for Spain, Turkey, Ukraine, Portugal, Ireland and Dubai. That’s six countries that got themselves into trouble with high borrowing over the last few years and now worry investors across the world.

    With all due respect to Ukraine, it is not yet seen as a major economy which could destabilize the global market. But there are two U’s who could easily qualify for the STUPID rogues’ gallery: the United Kingdom and the United States. . . .”

  59. sas says:

    “This, IMO, is an excellent atmosphere in which to foster academic achievemen”

    lol. thats a good one.

    but, its easier to just import intellect & talent via the visas. so, who really cares about the quality of the kids education? they are just used as political foosballs.


  60. sas says:

    “Send them a link to Memories of the Looting.”

    Memoria del Saqueo is a must see for everyone. you may not know, there was an attempted assination on Fernando E. Solanas (the writer & director) for telling this story.

    if you note in the film, he walks with a limp. He took a few rounds.


  61. skep-tic says:

    Addressing the question of whether we are at the bottom. It is hard to tell. My anecdotal experience is that on any house that is in a good area that is not insanely overpriced is drawing bids right now. If the seller’s aren’t completely unrealistic, they can get to contract. Houses that come on the market fairly priced barely show up on MLS they sell so fast. It is hard to tell whether this is indicative of a bottom or whether it is just a temporary phenomenon due to the coming expiration of the tax credit and low interest rates (and the expectation that rates will soon rise). But if you are really looking right now, the experience is beginning to be more reminiscent of 2006 than 2009. You cannot dictate terms to sellers right now because for a fairly priced property people are lining up.

  62. 3b says:

    #64 I don’t see us anywhere near a bottom at this point in our area. And not to call BS, but I don’t think sellers are dictating terms to buyers anywhere at this point,and it’s not 2006.

  63. sas says:

    “He took a few rounds”

    reminds me of my days back in the early 80s, (think it was 1984?), down in Haiti, during the creole pig ratification days.
    US wanted to push with bogus trade agreements, next thing you know, poachers are everywhere shooting at even a Bush that shakes in the wind.

    come 1990, Aristide asks all the right questions. oh well… we should have stuffed that ballot box, but I just didn’t have the heart to do it.


  64. 3b says:

    #61 Apparently you can add Britain to that list too, getting real ugly with the pound. So I guess we can change it to BSTUPID.

  65. sas says:

    “Bush that shakes in the wind.”

    bushes.. you know.. plants.


  66. 3b says:

    #61 Sorry missed the bottom of your original post.

  67. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    not sure if this is it:

    Found 12 parts on youtube.


  68. skep-tic says:

    3b– Note that I said “for a fairly priced property.” There are two segments of the market. There is the wildly overpriced crap that is essentially not even for sale. This is a lot of the listings. But there is a realistic segment of the market that seems to be drawing bids and contracts very fast. There are some sellers who get it right now and buyers are out there and willing to pay close to asking for these places.

  69. chicagofinance says:

    MARCH 3, 2010
    Should This Move Be Banned?
    The Brazilian Penalty-Kick ‘Paradinha’ Has Some Pitching a Fit; This ‘Must Be Stopped’


    Here’s the thing about soccer: When it comes to innovation and creativity, there’s Brazil and then there’s everybody else.

    To stop the Brazilians, you can try to overwhelm them (good luck with that) or try to steal their techniques. If that doesn’t work, all you can do is change the rules.

    This weekend in Zurich, as it makes final preparations for June’s World Cup, soccer’s main rule-making body will discuss the latest controversial bit of Brazilian magic: a devastating penalty-kick maneuver known as the paradinha.

    The tactic, which in Portuguese means “little stop,” was first popularized by Pelé in the 1970s but has recently been adopted, and sharpened, by many leading Brazilian players and by an increasing number of stars from other countries, like Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo.

    The paradinha (pronounced par-a-JEEN-ya) is performed on a penalty kick by the shooter, who pauses unexpectedly before striking the ball—or even swings his foot through the air several times—before making contact. It’s designed to throw off the goalkeeper’s timing. When executed properly, the move can have jawdropping results.

    Last month in a Brazilian professional game against São Paulo, an 18-year-old striker for Santos, whose name is Neymar, lined up to take a penalty kick. He began jogging slowly up to the ball, then suddenly accelerated his pace, then stopped abruptly, almost backpedaling. São Paulo’s goalie, Rogério Ceni, jumped off his feet toward his right side, leaving Neymar, who has been dubbed by some as “the new Pelé,” free to kick the ball into the opposite lower corner for an easy goal. The striker, who is being courted by a slew of European teams, high-fived a teammate and celebrated with a short samba dance as the crowd went wild and the announcers screamed: “Paradinha! Goooool!”

    “He should take advantage of doing this while it’s still permitted in Brazil, because when he goes to Europe he won’t be able to do it,” Mr. Ceni, the goalkeeper, said after the game, complaining that Neymar’s paradinha was more of a “paradão,” meaning “big stop.”

    Several days later, Fred, the star striker for the Rio de Janeiro-based club Fluminense, took the move to the extreme, stuttering on the run-up to several penalty kicks in a game against Vasco da Gama, another Rio team. On one occasion Fred came to a screeching halt before extending his foot over the ball as if to kick, sending the goalie diving to his right before Fred kicked the ball toward the other side and scored. “Only in Brazil!” tweeted Kaka, a Brazilian superstar who plays for Real Madrid. Kaka pointed out to his Twitter followers that the paradinha puts the goalie at a clear disadvantage.

    The move isn’t prohibited by current rules of FIFA, and the international governing body says the earliest it could change or clarify the penalty-kick rule would be next year. But it will be up to each referee to decide whether to permit the move at the World Cup when it begins in South Africa in June, or whether to punish the maneuver as “unsporting behavior.”

    Already some powerful forces have spoken out against it. “This is cheating,” said FIFA President Joseph Blatter, talking about the paradinha at a meeting in Rio in September. “This ‘stopping’ must be stopped.”

    Trickery has long been an integral part of soccer in Brazil, where players, coaches and fans generally prize creativity and cunning over brute force.

    Some historians trace Brazilian soccer’s history of innovation and showmanship to the late 1800s, when slavery had just been abolished and black players preferred to outwit their white opponents rather than touching them, fearing that physical contact could rankle racist fans.

    The term was coined when Pelé used the maneuver—albeit with more subtlety than today’s players—during the World Cup in 1970, though the 69-year-old star has since admitted he simply copied the move from the late Didi, one of Brazilian soccer’s most creative minds, who famously disdained physical contact and believed the ball should do the work, not the player.

    The paradinha only began its recent surge in popularity after an international rule change in 1997 that allowed goalkeepers to move laterally along the goal line before the penalty kick is taken, which is from 12 yards away. With goalies suddenly more jumpy, Pelé’s old trick became far more effective and helped kickers to use the goalies’ new freedom of movement to their own advantage.

    The technique can backfire, especially for players who employ it too often. Mr. Ronaldo, while playing for Manchester United, couldn’t make Chelsea goalkeeper Petr Cech flinch during the shootout phase of the 2008 UEFA Champions League Final. While Mr. Ronaldo stopped as if to kick, Mr. Cech waited calmly for the flustered Portuguese star’s real shot and was able to block it.

    Outside of Brazil, referees unaccustomed to seeing the move are less forgiving. In a match between Brazilian club Palmeiras and the Argentinos Juniors two years ago, a Colombian referee chastised Brazilian midfielder Diego Souza for fooling the goalie and punished the Rio native with a yellow card.

    Even though the laws of the game clearly state that “feinting to take a penalty kick to confuse opponents is permitted,” there has been much confusion over the years surrounding the legality of deception in soccer.

    A FIFA spokesman says that its rules committee spent much of the early 1980s discussing “ungentlemanly conduct at the taking of a penalty kick,” only to discover in 1985 that all the discussion had been based on the “wrong assumption [by FIFA referees] that feigning was an offence.” (The issue was promptly dropped.)

    But the misconception is still so widespread that it has largely curbed the spread of the paradinha beyond Brazil’s borders. The three Brazilian players of Major League Soccer’s Los Angeles Galaxy, who are on loan from São Paulo this season, said last month they were under the impression that feinting was illegal outside of Brazil and said they would never try it in the U.S.

    Nelson Rodriguez, MLS’s executive vice president of competition, says he personally finds Brazil’s current use of the paradinha “excessive,” but he adds that soccer’s stylistic differences across countries should be celebrated, not stamped out. “It’s the beauty and mystery of the game,” Mr. Rodriguez says.

  70. beanbear says:

    Does anyone know how to prop tax equation for Berkeley Heights?

    It looks like the rate is around 3.1% but I’m not sure what % of the assessed home value it’s calculated against.

    I assume it’s considerably less than 100% since the taxes seem about 1/3 lower than Montclair/GR (where we are also looking).

  71. 3b says:

    #71 I am not sure how you are defining fairly priced. For myself, that would be 2002 pricing or earlier.

    In my own blue ribbon area yes most over priced junk is sitting along with everything else, so in my mind it is all over priced otherwise we could argue it would be moving. Ironically listings that would have sold in 2009 at listed prices are today sitting. (How mcuh has demand has the tax credit pulled forward, and has that demand now been exhausted.) In fact this morning on the mls, there were 6 price reductions since last night.

    Finally I wonder if perhaps some peopel are wating to see where propert taxes are going this year many towns will be looking at 10% increases over last year!!!

  72. veto that says:

    Skeptic – I think we need to watch the market over the next couple months to get a better assessment of where prices are headed.

    Its obvious that they are starting to drop again but i think alot of buyers and sellers are waiting for the final decision from the fed and congress.

    Once we get more certainty and see how the mortg market adjusts, and once sellers realize that they are competing against a buinch of fire sale ditress sales, i think you will see alot more panic selling and throwing in the towel.

  73. veto that says:

    “this morning on the mls, there were 6 price reductions since last night”

    This is a good sign. 6 out of how many?

  74. 3b says:

    6 out of 40. May not seem like alot, but in one night, I thought it was significant, especially as we head to the tax credit expiration. I am not seeing any frenzy on the part of buyers.

  75. sas says:

    “6 out of 40”

    that could just be typical background noise. you boys are stretching…

    now, get back to work, and pay for my retirement & entitlements.


  76. sas says:


    I’m a god damned rock ribbed American. I’m entitled to everything.

    God Bless me, and to hell with everyone else, especially you people in the middle east.

    (sarcasm off)

  77. dan says:

    #53 Moose, Excellent point.

  78. veto that says:

    “I am not seeing any frenzy on the part of buyers.”

    It’s march already and there is no snow this weekend for the first time.

    Buyers still have two solid months to make their purchase.

    If there will be a frenzy im sure we will start to see it in the next few weekends.

  79. veto that says:

    Thats funny i saw a significant price reduction yesterday in my town.
    The house is an absolute piece of garbage but the reduction was significant.

  80. sas says:


    My lower back feels brand new today.

    last night I took a muscle relaxer and I slept like a baby. Very groggy when I woke, cause I usually wake at the sound of a pin drop. But, I was out like a tree stump of lightning throughout the night.


  81. Anon E. Moose says:


    Actually, I was surprised by that as it is the liberals that want to end the reliance on property taxes for school funding.

    Not surprising. Reliance on local funding requires decentralized control. With central funding and control, you can tax the sh!t out of blue-ribbony areas and shunt all that money to ACORN and HEAD START in the inner cities. To each according to his needs, and all that.

  82. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    sas says:
    March 3, 2010 at 11:29 am


    I’m a god damned rock ribbed American. I’m entitled to everything.



  83. beanbear says:

    Skeptic #71, veto #75

    Not sure which district Skeptic is in, but – at least in Montclair/GR – it seems anything (a) in a decent condition + location, (b) w/ a 2nd bathroom, and (c) priced under $700K is moving very quickly.

    Since the holidays, almost everything we’ve been following went in multiples and at-or-over asking (list prices in parentheses): 7 Burnside ($599K), 92 Essex ($549K), 386 Forest ($639K), 18 Laurel ($617K), 117 Alexander ($617K), 15 Stonehenge ($549K), 175 Hawthorne ($499K), and a couple more I’m forgetting. Also looks like 15 Douglas ($649K) might do the same this wk.

    The prices aren’t really “big” discounts from the mkt peak, as far as I can tell. It seems – from the final sale numbers I can see – that they’re settling in only 10-15% lower than the 2005-6 peak. Just seems weird to me, since I assume – given this mkt’s demo – the tax credit probably isn’t a big factor.

  84. prtraders2000 says:

    We inherited about 20 individual tax clients from a poor guy that fell ill. Everyone of them has a Schedule C with a home office and significant losses from their “self employment”. One guy was listing his summer house as a rental (he never rented it and showed big losses) and had a schedule C for his management company that managed his rental (again losses). Then he wanted know about deducting the travel costs to get the house! Our new clients are not happy with us because we do things the right way and our staff is stressed out. Tax season is a drag.

  85. veto that says:

    “The prices aren’t really “big” discounts from the mkt peak, as far as I can tell. It seems – from the final sale numbers I can see – that they’re settling in only 10-15% lower than the 2005-6 peak.”

    Same thing in my town in central nj.

  86. NJGator says:

    beanbear 73 – The average ratio for Berkeley Heights for this tax year is 53.90. A house should be assessed at that percentage of it’s market value. The town would be able to successfully defend against tax appeals where the assessment is as high as 61.99% of market value. Not sure what the current tax rate is for the town.

    Montclair and Glen Ridge’s assessments are much closer to actual market value. Glen Ridge’s are about 92%. Montclair’s are 99.30%.

    Th3 53% vs 99% should not affect the actual amount of taxes you pay in one town versus another. Berkeley Heights has a higher tax rate to reflect the lower assessments. If those assessments were updated to market value tomorrow, the tax rate would adjust downward accordingly.

  87. dan says:


    Wednesday is probably the big day to enter changes as realtor and seller discuss Monday or Tuesday what to do next.

  88. sas says:


    yes, he is in my thoughts.

    as outrageous as he is, he is witty and comes up with some good lingo.

    He was spot on when he called it regarding the bulldozers.


  89. sas says:

    there was someone too, I can’t remember whom, who called 40 USD crude when it was flirting at 150 USD.

    That was a damn good call, or just gosh darn lucky.


  90. scribe, The Princess of Paramus says:


    could I call you sometime when you’re off duty?

    I have some questions about medical “stuff” I don’t want to post ..

    it will be quick

  91. john says:

    Most importantly, do not sit down, go straight to emergency room and they should be able to safely remove the gerbil and the coke bottle.

    scribe, The Princess of Paramus says:
    March 3, 2010 at 12:21 pm

    could I call you sometime when you’re off duty?

    I have some questions about medical “stuff” I don’t want to post ..

    it will be quick

  92. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:


    sure, I am up.

    or you can email me if you prefer…

    I’m just watching the Argentina clips on youtube…. it’s depressing and stunningly frightening.

    I could use a break. It’s making me sick.


  93. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:


    that was “bi” who made that call.


  94. chicagofinance says:

    You have competition!,225353

    prtraders2000 says:
    March 3, 2010 at 11:52 am

    We inherited about 20 individual tax clients from a poor guy that fell ill. Everyone of them has a Schedule C with a home office and significant losses from their “self employment”. One guy was listing his summer house as a rental (he never rented it and showed big losses) and had a schedule C for his management company that managed his rental (again losses). Then he wanted know about deducting the travel costs to get the house! Our new clients are not happy with us because we do things the right way and our staff is stressed out. Tax season is a drag.

  95. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [89] ptraders

    I feel your pain. They are just asking for audits (let me know if they need a lawyer).

    We aren’t tied to tax season but I almost went ballistic on the sociopathic, mysogynistic, OCD tax partner that I work for here. I was a hairsbreath away from going into his office and telling him “I don’t know which of your fcking problems you are projecting on me, but I’m sick of your sh1t. Shovel it yourself.”

  96. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [100] redux,

    At least I take comfort in the knowledge that he is ticking off one of our bigger clients so badly that I should be able to poach them for myself.

  97. chicagofinance says:

    You know what….I can’t watch this either….pure propaganda….sensationalistic pablum……

    still_looking aka Tan-Less says:
    March 3, 2010 at 10:35 am
    not sure if this is it:
    Found 12 parts on youtube.

  98. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [84] moose

    That’s my point. If you eliminate property taxes as the funding basis for schools, you invite redistribution.

    I suppose the premise is that, if you go to an all voucher system, then it won’t result in re-distribution. Actually, that is a fallacy as it will redistribute money; its just that it will be perceived as market driven, and therefore more fair.

    Gotta shut down the browser for today and tomorrow. Psycho-partner is once again engaged in his love-hate relationship with me, and I have until COB tomorrow to complete a report for which he hasn’t given me any new information. Nice.

  99. chicagofinance says:

    This thing is like a less objective version of a Michael Moorer film sans any sense of humor….

    chicagofinance says:
    March 3, 2010 at 12:47 pm

    You know what….I can’t watch this either….pure propaganda….sensationalistic pablum……

    still_looking aka Tan-Less says:
    March 3, 2010 at 10:35 am
    not sure if this is it:
    Found 12 parts on youtube.

  100. Yikes says:

    thx for the car website tip yesterday, people.

    looking at leasing an SUV that is 1-2 yrs old. hoping for something at $300 a month for only 30 months.

    accountant basically said he can write off 40% of the vehicle as a business expense, meaning if it’s 300, I’m only paying 180 out of pocket a month.

    better than giving that money to uncle sam, that’s for sure

  101. john says:

    Chifi, what do you think of Associated Banc-Corp (Public, NASDAQ:ASBC)

    I just bought some of their 9.25 coupon bonds of 2018 at 98. They have done a lot of stock sales in last few months to beef tier 1 capital. Seems like easy money with a 9.5 ytm on a bond that is almost investment grade.

    Some more of that issue still floating around, heck you have to go to GMAC, SLM or F to get that yield and that is a heck of a lot more shaky.

  102. 3b says:

    #92 Could be, that and it is the begining of a new month, with only 57 days left (for those who qualify), to take advantage of the tax credit.

  103. 3b says:

    #88 I have seen many listings in the 600-70K range,where the realtor is exhorting would be buyers to take advantage of the tax credit!!

  104. 3b says:

    #81 You could be right, but it seems alot to expect with less than 60 days left. Plus we have the Palm Sunday/Easter weekends and Passover.

  105. 3b says:

    #78 Could be. Just saying I have not seen that many reductions in less than 24 hours.

  106. skep-tic says:


    don’t forget that with the extension of the tax credit to April 30 the upper limit was raised to $225 (i believe) per household. It was also extended beyond 1st time buyers to everyone. So in the 500-700k range I think you are seeing people chasing the credit who make around 200k or are selling a starter house and have a big downpayment.

  107. beanbear says:

    3b #88 – I guess it’s possible for it to matter, since the MGI cut off for couples is ~$220K/yr and the monthly payments + taxes on a $600-700K house is pretty much w/in that affordability range.

    NJGator #91 – forgive my ignorance (just moved back to NJ after 15yrs), but why don’t they standardize the calculation?

  108. scribe, The Princess of Paramus says:


    can you send me your contact info?

  109. NJGator says:

    beanbear 112 – That would require towns to reassess every year. Too costly.

    As an alternative the state analyzes the assessment to sales price ratio for all arm’s length non-distress transactions to create these equalization ratios. This is used to determine county tax levys, etc.

  110. scribe, The Princess of Paramus says:


    I *knew* you would say something like that!

    I understand the coke bottle reference from Erica Jong.

    But the gerbil … ?

  111. veto that says:

    Don’t Send Your Kids to College! “It’s a Scam,” James Altucher Says

    A recent WSJ article profiled a Columbia, Ohio doctor facing a whopping $500,000 in student loans — the result of deferred payments and accumulated charges. While the doctor’s debt burden may be extreme, more U.S. college students are borrowing larger amounts to pay for surging tuition costs.

    Rising debt is one key reason why our guest James Altucher, a hedge-fund manager and author, argues: Don’t send your kids to college!

    The case for college. Altucher adds the case for college largely is based on an assumption: a degree = a higher paying job.

    Altucher argues it’s time to rethink the value of four years of higher education, especially right after high school. He believes the vast majority of HS grads would be better off if tuition money was invested for them instead, as detailed here, or used to fund a new business or other “educational” endeavors like travel.'t-send-your-kids-to-college!-%22it's-a-scam%22-james-altucher-says-434365.html?tickers=%5EGSPC,spy,COCO,APOL,DV,ESI,%5EDJI&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

  112. Shore Guy says:

    What’s this I hear about Rangel?

  113. veto that says:

    116 reminds me of the time clot advised the board to take your kid’s college 529 savings and buy him/her a gas station.

  114. Shore Guy says:

    And yet another politico who doesn’t realize that the time has past to go away:

  115. homeboken says:

    Request – Can someone give me a history of MLS #2742739


  116. Painhrtz says:

    Veto wow a hedge fund manager saying better to invest no big surprise there. Maybe the better choice is to not send your brat to ivory league snootery school or out of state rather send them instate or CC. Split the difference kid gets the chunk of change when done with school.

    no problem on my wayI don’t disagree that college may not be the best option for everyone

  117. Shore Guy says:

    I suspect that college is the right move for about 1/3 of the people who enroll each year.

  118. 3b says:

    #112 taxes on a $600-700K house is pretty much w/in that affordability range.

    You might want to consider 15 to 20K in property taxes too, before making that statement.

  119. House Whine says:

    Absolutely I believe that the most I ever learned in college was during the year that I wasn’t actually attending my college! During my junior year I lived/worked/studied abroad- best year of college by far and I learned so much about the real world. Living far away isn’t for everyone but it made me realize that the typical “college experience” isn’t necessarily all it’s cracked up to be.

  120. veto that says:

    Pain, community college is underrated. Its practical and cheap and will explode in popularity once people realize they teach from the same books and with the same effectiveness as seton hall.

  121. john says:

    School is for fools, graffiti artists make more money.

  122. 3b says:

    #124 Back in the 80’s most peopel myself included who grew up in NYC,and who went to college, lived at home, and had a part time job. And so we had a foot in both worlds, which kept us grounded, and we still had an excellent party time.Today many go away, don’t have any kind of job, and live in la, la land,and than graduate and expect to land a big job with big bucks.

  123. Final Doom says:

    chi (72)-

    This move throws off the kicker as often as it does the goalkeeper. Everytime Ronaldinho tries it, his kick goes straight at the keeper.

  124. sas says:

    reduce your lifestyle you old battle ax!

    as for me, I’ve been done married 5X.
    It will keep me working till I circle the drain.

    “70% Of The Elderly Aren’t Retiring Because They Can’t Afford To Anymore”


  125. Final Doom says:

    chi (102)-

    Except for the fact that all that really happened, and then somebody tried to whack the filmmaker.

    “You know what….I can’t watch this either….pure propaganda….sensationalistic pablum……”

  126. veto that says:

    i always thought a goalie’s best chance of saving a pk was to take an aggressive step toward the kicker to cut the angle.
    When done properly, the kicker is left with one foot of space on either side to slide or tuck the ball into the net, plus if the kicker goes down middle, the shot is stopped.
    Many people think that when a keeper guesses by diving to the left or right he has a 50% chance of guessing correctly. But its more like a 20% chance, since kicker can choose 4 corners or center.
    imo they should not ban that studder step as long as player’s leg or body dont go backward at any point.

  127. john says:

    CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — Starbucks Corp. reluctantly put itself in the center of the national gun debate in saying Wednesday that it will allow customers to openly carry firearms into its stores, as long as they are in compliance with local laws.

  128. Final Doom says:

    veto (131)-

    Keeper isn’t supposed to move forward off the line until the ball is struck, but lots of them do…and it’s 100% fatal.

    If the keeper tips a step forward on the shooter’s approach, the shooter should go for the side of the keeper’s foot that moves forward first, the same way you’d jink an oncoming defender to the side of the foot he uses to come with the tackle.

    Works every time.

  129. Final Doom says:

    john (132)-

    Gimme a double latte, m-f’er…before I bust a cap on your sorry ass.

    Sorta goes against the granola vibe in most of those joints.

  130. veto that says:

    “Keeper isn’t supposed to move forward off the line until the ball is struck”

    Yeah, i realize this but you are talking about all of thise happening within one second so to make that decision at last second is not easy, but if you can do all of that thinking then you are a stud and deserve a million euro per year. just remembr there is the risk that the keeper is using the same method by waiting to see where you go first. In that case, the tie goes to the goalie, as described in that article when cech stuffed ronaldo.

    I guess this is ‘advanced game theory’ applied to soccer, interesting. We should write a math formula for this situation. lol.

  131. Shore Guy says:

    Dude, is that a gun in your picket or are you just glad to see the barista?

  132. veto that says:

    they should allow the keeper to get a running start and lunge toward the ball face-first one second before it is kicked. That would seperate the weaklings from the men as far as im concerned.
    I want to see cech take a stiff one to the eye from ronaldo point blank.
    Would prob knock his helmet sock off.

  133. veto that says:

    “Gimme a double latte, m-f’er…before I bust a cap on your sorry ass.”

    Was that a vente or grande?

  134. Shore Guy says:

    pocket, even

  135. sastry says:

    Gator, #39

    “If we can put the emotion aside about union ‘givebacks’ to the school district
    here are some numbers that illustrate the impact of 1 per-cent reduction in the
    negotiated raises.”

    I think the “protect the jobs” argument is also based on a bit of emotion. No matter how we slice it, the math is 1% reduction in average projected salary (which is probably close to 30%-50% of projected raise) will save exactly 1/100 of an average job.

    So, 100 people forgo 1% salaries to save 1 job. It’s an ugly situation one way or another. It sucks for all when we are in a budget hole.


  136. chicagofinance says:

    Everything that Michael Moorer films really happened. He just infests the subject matter with an agenda. I could see someone trying to whack Moorer. Look, I am not trying to suggest that the government of Argentina at the times wasn’t corrupt scum, but rather that there was populist rage and a provocateur behind the lense.

    Final Doom says:
    March 3, 2010 at 2:25 pm

    chi (102)-

    Except for the fact that all that really happened, and then somebody tried to whack the filmmaker.

    “You know what….I can’t watch this either….pure propaganda….sensationalistic pablum……”

  137. chicagofinance says:


    john says:
    March 3, 2010 at 12:54 pm

    Chifi, what do you think of Associated Banc-Corp (Public, NASDAQ:ASBC)

    I just bought some of their 9.25 coupon bonds of 2018 at 98. They have done a lot of stock sales in last few months to beef tier 1 capital. Seems like easy money with a 9.5 ytm on a bond that is almost investment grade.

    Some more of that issue still floating around, heck you have to go to GMAC, SLM or F to get that yield and that is a heck of a lot more shaky.

  138. Barbara says:

    part 2 of that Argentinian doc is more toned down and effective. I think you are responding to the goofy flying text, I started to laugh after 2 minutes in. Its all very amateur but if you are familiar with the events, it holds up. I think part 2 would raise a lot of eyebrows here when the start naming the major players.

  139. sas says:

    “Argentinian doc”

    forget the cinematography. Focus on the issues and theme.

    yes, its done very cheese wiz.


  140. sas says:

    wow, Rush Limbaugh pad on the market for some serious jack. I should get a job at fox news spreading doublespeak.


  141. chicagofinance says:


    I assume you saw this….still digging…

    start at slide 20

  142. chicagofinance says:

    JJ: just as an aside….you getting your rocks off on Wisconsin Commercial RE…NICE! Booya to you….I assume you take it in the a$$ with cheese whiz then…still checking….

  143. veto that says:

    “Everything that Michael Moorer films really happened.”

    chi, who is michal moorer?
    the fat liberal guy wih beard and baseball hat is moore

  144. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:


    Yeah that Argentina documentary is a good watch. Gives a good reference when it comes crashing down here.

    Cant keep the bullion down.

  145. Jamil's Twin says:

    Everything that Michael Moorer films really happened
    So, he is reporting facts.

    He just infests the subject matter with an agenda
    It is his film, of course it will promote his agenda. Who the hell opines/films anything without an agenda?

    The problem here is that his agenda does not mesh with your agenda.

  146. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    NEW YORK ( — The U.S. Postal Service said on Tuesday that it would reduce its workforce by another 30,000 positions and slash overtime this year in an effort to reduce costs.

    Together these staffing reductions will result in cost savings equivalent to eliminating 50,000 full-time positions, according to Chief Financial Officer Joseph Corbett.

    What transferrable skills does the average post man have that can be used in the private sector?

    I guess they can drive a minivan.

  147. Painhrtz says:

    Veto I did two years of CC and then went away to an instate school for three years. Left school with minimal debt (poor family couldn’t help it paid off in a year after school) Ended up getting into graduate school no worse for wear and I’m in a decent paying job today. (Although because of graduate school I accrued crushing debt)

    Or get a job at McD’s they pay for undergrad. there are plenty of options. My one regret is that I was consulting when I wne t to graduate school and couldn’t find some company to suck on the cost.

  148. veto that says:

    pain, cc is brilliant imo.
    Its practically free.

  149. veto that says:

    chi just decimated your bond of the day.
    take a look at IVR, they recently ipo’d.
    18% div yield.
    they are a reit, and they make money on mbs spreads. Dont know exactly the degree that they fed withdrawl will effect their profits net net, but im betting that the fed makes the whole thing a success.
    it will be a big show and the investors will be rewarded.

  150. Painhrtz says:

    I agree they are very underated.

    I wasn’t prepared for college level studying it turned me in the right direction. Remember I am a product of Garfield school systems never learned how to study I never had to.

  151. sastry says:

    Sas #145

    Fox doublespeak? Never. They only present unadulterated GOP talking points and lies.


  152. veto that says:

    “Remember I am a product of Garfield school systems never learned how to study I never had to.”

    yes but im sure you could whip somebody’s @ss outside the board room though…


  153. chicagofinance says:

    vito: I’m not done yet….and I have rendered a judgment either…

    more data…
    I calculate that 62% of their earning asset base is either commercial or retail real estate in Wisconsin or North Central Illinois.


    Earning assets:
    Commercial $ 9,673,513
    Residential mortgage 2,369,719
    Retail 3,552,404
    Total loans 15,595,636

    Investment securities:
    Securities and short-term investments 5,741,746

    Total earning assets $ 21,337,382

    Cash and due from banks 492,794
    Other assets 2,159,519

    Total assets $ 23,609,471

  154. chicagofinance says:

    Your tier one capital is in the $5.742

  155. chicagofinance says:

    have = have not

  156. hughesrep says:


    Does it come with his Oxy stash?

  157. beanbear says:

    3b #121 — the “affordability range” seemed to pencil out AFAIK.

    Let’s say –

    – $250K/yr gross (and MGI of $220K-ish… not unusual, esp if you’re already in a starter home, and enough to get the tax credit)
    – $650K purchase price w/ 20% down and at 5.25% rate

    It would pencil out as:

    – mortgage ~$2900/mo
    – taxes ~$1500/mo
    – home insurance ~$200/mo
    = $4600/mo total for housing

    Your total monthly “housing-to-gross-income” ratio would be ~22%, which is decently lower than historical “maximum” ratio of 28% (at least acc’ing to etc.).

    I don’t know… am I missing something?

  158. Painhrtz says:

    veto 7 broken noses and eight missing teeth but that is thanks to hockey not the land of misery I had the misfortune of growing up in. And yes, you don’t want to fcuk with me.

  159. veto that says:

    “I have (not) rendered a judgment either…’

    ok, go ahead with the calcs. i thought the the graphs on pages 20-30 said it all.

  160. chicagofinance says:

    It appears his bond is a subordinated 10NCL5 issued in September 2008. I have no clue how they managed to market it at that point in time, although $26M was the issue size. They have a shelf, so it must have been issued reverse inquiry. Someone came to the dealer and asked whether ASBC would issue a retail sized slug and they complied. As a result, JJ’s bond is VERY illiquid.

  161. Final Doom says:

    veto (137)-

    Way back in the ’70s, I saw Shep Messing (playing for the SAS Airlines team in the old Cosmopolitan League) run up to a guy about to take a PK and start shouting in his face. He then went back to his line…and the shooter blasted the ball 10 yds over the goal.

    He tried this when he started playing for the Cosmos, but the league banned the tactic.

  162. Final Doom says:

    sas (145)-

    Where’s his vic0din room?

  163. chicagofinance says:

    So JJ….your bond is subordinated to everything here

    Interest-bearing liabilities:
    Savings deposits $ 880,544
    Interest-bearing demand deposits 2,154,745
    Money market deposits 5,390,782
    Time deposits, excluding Brokered CDs 3,880,878
    Total interest-bearing deposits, excluding
    Brokered CDs 767,424
    Federal funds purchased and securities sold under
    agreements to repurchase 1,294,423
    Other short-term borrowings 1,421,338
    JJ you are almost at the back of the line here sub-to everything else =========>Long-term funding 1,869,148

  164. sas says:

    “Fox doublespeak? Never. They only present unadulterated GOP talking points and lies.”

    oh sorry bloke. I got Democrats double speak confused with Foxs News GOP bullshilt.


  165. sastry says:

    Sas #170. True, both sides are in bed with lobbyists. Best democracy that money can buy.


  166. sas says:

    “SAS Airlines team”

    you talking my days riding with the Jpats on the MD-80 series?


  167. Final Doom says:

    chi (169)-

    So, John is holding a fancy version of some deposit bottles?

  168. Final Doom says:

    sas (172)-

    Nah. Just soccer. None of that rendition/air prisoners shit.

  169. chicagofinance says:

    I would be surprised if you can dump that bond without taking a 3-5% haircut.

    Verdict: serious POS….you should be getting more than a double digit yield for a 8.5/NCL/3.5 where the pricing bond indication is roughly 3.6%…you said 9.5 YTM, which is fair, because they won’t be YTparC, but a spread of 590 bps is too tight. You are somewhat immunized by a selloff in UST because the spreads may tighten, but I think if you try unloading that piece of paper to lock in the gain, you will get a%% raped.

  170. chicagofinance says:

    JJ: Of course, you were correct last time….

  171. veto that says:

    heavy exposure to construction/cre in small geographic region.

    ncos tripled yoy

    revenue tood a 20% hit last year, op income took a 40% hit, net income 50% of what it was 2 years ago.

    moodys recently downgraded sub debt to baa2 – days ago

    last time i saw a bank in horrible shape like this was regions financial about a year ago and i didnt invest in them, but they recovered pretty well since then.

  172. john says:

    Chifi, for fun I bought a 15K piece anyhow. Not big money. I think you are 100% right, they may shove a piece of stinky cheese in my butt, shove a habitrail tube up my a-hole and let the hamster crawl up and just when I think I will be saved from a BK by some collateral or white knight the SOBs will gut the dental floss off the hampsters tail.

    However, based on your advise I held off buying the 30K piece and split the difference at 15k.

    That saying, I think I am safe as I will hold to maturity, they have a new CEO, they have 500 million in unpaid tarp money and they issued around 800 million in stock recently and screwed the new shareholders by then cutting dividend to 1 cent. Their next big bond maturity is only 200 million and that is not till 2011. Bank seems intent on survival over shareholder value and re-paying govt. Plus backtesting to March 2009 reveals a low of only 85 for bond. Finally, the stock is in the de-shorting process.

    I actually don’t unload high yield bonds too often I use income stream to buy new bonds, I have around 20 bonds with coupons in excess of 9% I bought at par or less.

    Yields have really collasped lately, heck AIG bonds now trade at 7% on long term maturities.

    Overall I think Regional Banks that have survived will survive. They really impaired and took charges where necessary and raised stock and cash as much as they could in this latest bull market.

  173. john says:

    You are talking to a guy who bought Citi, AIG, GMAC, Unisys, Genworth and Ford bonds one year ago while you guys were sucking your thumbs and buying canned goods.

    I like the downgrade. I am convinced the only time a rating is anywhere near correct is the day after a downgrade. Last year those were my big buying days, plus lots of investment grade bond funds have to all sell when it falls below a certain rating. Plus read the fine print, they downgraded but said what they did may result in a upgrade.

    I am not worried. Ambac is the one I really threw the gaunlet down on. If that puppy makes it to August 1st that will be a miracle. And I believe in miracles.

    veto that says:
    March 3, 2010 at 4:15 pm
    heavy exposure to construction/cre in small geographic region.

    ncos tripled yoy

    revenue tood a 20% hit last year, op income took a 40% hit, net income 50% of what it was 2 years ago.

    moodys recently downgraded sub debt to baa2 – days ago

    last time i saw a bank in horrible shape like this was regions financial about a year ago and i didnt invest in them, but they recovered pretty well since then.

  174. make money says:


    Banning this is like banning thinking, innovation, and tactic. I think its good for the game and makes for great highlights. In Europe the Olley-oop pass was banned in the 80’s.

    The keepers need to stop guessing and just react.

  175. veto that says:

    “You are talking to a guy who bought Citi, AIG, GMAC, Unisys, Genworth and Ford bonds one year ago while you guys were sucking your thumbs and buying canned goods.
    I like the downgrade. Last year those were my big buying days.”

    Johnny, if it were possible to inflate your ego anymore right now i prob would do it.

  176. chicagofinance says:

    Honestly, the AMBAC thing is the true testicle tingling prostate shot….serious cojones…..ASBC is just a standard issue POS…AMBAC was essentially writing unhedged puts with no capital base.

    john says:
    March 3, 2010 at 4:31 pm
    I am not worried. Ambac is the one I really threw the gaunlet down on. If that puppy makes it to August 1st that will be a miracle. And I believe in miracles.

  177. House Whine says:

    178- Did you read the last paragraph in that article about the Morristown layoffs?
    The town was liable for $780,000 in damages due to a lawsuit from a few years ago. Wow.

  178. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [184] chifi

    Not legal in Jersey.

  179. veto that says:

    Actually, hoboken is on fire. Here is franks comps – but these are based on listing price so i dont know if thats different than closing price.

    1200 grand unit 201
    bought in 2005 for 345K,
    lp today is 430K.
    25% gain

    1100 clinton, unit 304
    bought in 2003 for $410k
    lp today $509k
    25% gain

    400 9th st, W3A
    bought in 2005 for $732k
    lp today is $574k
    22% loss

    66 Madison, unit2
    bought in 2007 for 565k
    lp today $599k
    5% gain

  180. Barbara says:

    can’t believe this piece of crap is still at same price. I was in this one, don’t let the wide angle lens fool you, rooms are postage stamp sized.

  181. Shore Guy says:

    “And I believe in miracles.”

    Oh, I believe in miracles

    Where you from

    You sexy bond, oh

    I believe in miracles

    Since you paid at par

    You sexy bond

  182. Shore Guy says:


    No. She looks like she just sat on the canary.

  183. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:


    Built in 1894. That means it comes with a ghost.

    The porch is nice if you can modify it with balistic glass.

    Other than that. No granite = no interest.

  184. Mr Hyde says:


    You have a realtor fetish dont you?

  185. gary says:

    Doom [24],

    I agree. I think the best thing we can do for our youth is to take away their electronics, make them eat their vegetables and beat the sh1t out them. They’ll grow up learning responsibilty and maybe have a set of balls. We’ve become such a fat, stup1d country that needs to learn the basics again.

  186. Final Doom says:

    make (181)-

    I don’t think it should be banned, either. It’s within the laws of the game. It’s also something that can blow up in the kicker’s face, too, so it’s not foolproof.

  187. Final Doom says:

    chi (183)-

    The Ambac play was akin to a buzzard picking chain meat off a rotting 12-point buck carcass. You can’t even call it investment.

  188. veto that says:

    “You have a realtor fetish dont you?”

    Ket, in many cases, the realtor is more rediculous than the price of the home.

  189. Final Doom says:

    veto (191)-

    Ate shit is more like it.

  190. Final Doom says:

    shore (192)-

    I think she found the gerbil from earlier in this thread.

  191. Final Doom says:

    I love Reggie Middleton. He will say anything.

    “There are broad indications hinting that Italy and Greece are not the only countries that have used SWAP agreements to manipulate its budget and deficit figures. France and Portugal may be two other European economies which have resorted to similar manipulations in the past in order to qualify as part of single currency member nations (Euro Zone). Below is a small subset of the research that I have been gathering as I construct a global sovereign default model. This model is very comprehensive and thus far has indicated that quite a few (as in more than two or three) nations of significance have an 90% probability of defaulting on their debt in the near to medium term. More on this later, now let’s dig into what we have found that looks like gross manipulation of the numbers in order to hide debt in several European countries. Here’s a quick quiz. What well known (in name only) Italian American has a significant chunk of the European Union Sovereign nations apparently modeled their financial engineering from?

    Charles Ponzi (March 3, 1882 – January 18, 1949) was an Italian swindler, who is considered one of the greatest swindlers in American history. His aliases include Charles Ponei, Charles P. Bianchi, Carl and Carlo. The term “Ponzi scheme” is a widely known description of any scam that pays early investors returns from the investments of later investors. He promised clients a 50% profit within 45 days, or 100% profit within 90 days, by buying discounted postal reply coupons in other countries and redeeming them at face value in the United States as a form of arbitrage. Ponzi was probably inspired by the scheme of William F. Miller, a Brooklyn bookkeeper who in 1899 used the same scheme to take in $1 million.”

  192. stan says:

    Hoboken….. Not on fire. On bberry now but 20% down across town. I will post later. Saw one today that is listing 35% off.

  193. scribe, The Princess of Paramus says:

    Anyone else notice that today has been John’s hamster/gerbil day?

  194. scribe, The Princess of Paramus says:

    Will this be like the onion thing?

  195. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    Gotta go back and look for it… which posts?

    Oh, and scribe,

    You’ve got mail (did I spell that right??)


  196. veto that says:

    “This model is very comprehensive and thus far has indicated that quite a few nations of significance have an 90% probability of defaulting on their debt in the near to medium term. More on this later…”

    ugghh, that one is hard to read.
    how can printing that bs even be legal?

  197. Final Doom says:

    veto (206)-

    Reggie Middleton has been one of those guys who have made mostly correct calls from the get-go. Hard to call BS on him until he hits a bad streak.

  198. Outofstater says:

    #206 And then there’s that whole first amendment thing too. I mean, just look at what has been discussed here today – gerbils, dental floss, cheez whiz….

  199. 3b says:

    #202 STAN: Thanks for keeping our very own frank, honest. And helping him in his quest to accept it really is not 2005 any more.

  200. 3b says:

    #195 gary: It is too late, it really is.

  201. 3b says:

    #193 I never pictured you ad a granite man.

  202. 3b says:

    #188 Don’t enncourage him. We are trying to help come to terms with the fact that it is no longer 2005.

  203. stan says:

    Hoboken is on fire.

    525k loss.

    I see homeboken saw it as well.

    109 Grand Street #206
    sold for 950,000

    More Info 10/16/02 6089 256 850000
    More Info 02/09/07 8139 272 1475000
    More Info 01/20/05 7541 230 1225000

  204. veto that says:

    “#188 Don’t enncourage him.”

    i hear you but the comps he posted are pretty strong.
    the fact that frank is more illogical and disjointed than rain man is another topic altogether.

  205. veto that says:

    213 – oh, i defended the hoboken comps too soon.

  206. NJGator says:

    Gary 195 – The Montclair Education Associate must want our kids to stay fat and lazy. They have suggested cutting sports in lieu of wage givebacks.

    Montclair schools look to slash $5 million, cut 60 jobs
    By Nic Corbett/For The Star-Ledger
    March 02, 2010, 6:38PM

    MONTCLAIR — At a budget workshop Monday, Montclair school officials proposed more than 60 staff cuts and the elimination of several programs to slash $5.1 million from next school year’s budget.

    The presentation came a week after board members formally requested that the 1,000-member school employees union renegotiate its three-year contract, because salaries and benefits make up 83 percent of the budget.

    Dennis Murray, the head of the union, the Montclair Education Association, publicly refused to go back to the bargaining table, saying he believes there are other ways to avert layoffs.

    “This association, led by me, will fight tirelessly to save the jobs of those affected,” he said.

    Dozens of district employees, wearing white T-shirts emblazoned with the name of the union on the front and “I care about your kids” on the back, erupted in applause at times in support of Murray.

    Although Murray didn’t say how the layoffs could be averted without touching the contract, he did question why no one had suggested cutting funding for extracurricular activities.

    “I’m talking sports, folks,” he said.

  207. stan says:

    I watch the hoboken market closely, listings are increasing, prices are dropping lower and lower.

    I get lazy sometimes when Frank goes 05 on us. I could easily refute his fantasy, but its all he has. I just post now if someone thinks he’s right, just to refute it. The rent/own balance is so skewed towards renting in Hoboken now its unbelievable.

    Falling rents, 1-2 mos free from landlords, and recent property tax increases have pushed the needle even further towards renting being the best option. Just my observations.

  208. Shore Guy says:

    “have suggested cutting sports”

    Inasmuch as sports are part of the educational process, and educational policy determinations are entirely within the authority of the Board (with oversight from the Commissionar of Education), if the Board decides to keep sports and cut X Y or Z staff, there is nothing to stop the Board. Now, they may need to negotiate over the severable issue of compensation relating to various changes, e.g. increased class sizes, etc., but the decision-making authority rests with them, notwithstanding the sturm and drang of any group.

  209. sas says:

    I’ve been putting off getting a crown.
    Going to get me gold one.

    I don’t who I can’t stand worse a dentist or a used car salesmen.

    or a RE agent desperate for volume.


  210. sas says:

    Is it me, or is some of the biggest frauds are not only on Wall St, but at your local hospital or clinic?

    next thing I know, I’m going to wake up on ice with my kidney being shipped to either Israel or UCLA to pawn it off to the higest bidding Japanese mobster.


  211. sas says:

    “UCLA to pawn it off to the higest bidding Japanese mobster”



  212. Sean says:

    SaS – no way your kidneys are Sushi Grade anymore. :)

  213. veto that says:

    stan, what do the listing prices mean on franks link?
    are they the final closed price? asking price? or contract price?

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