From the Star Ledger:
N.J. legislation could create home buyer tax credit
A state association of real estate agents is backing legislation that would create a New Jersey tax credit for home buyers, according to a release.
The bill, which has yet to make it out of committee, would establish a tax credit much like the federal incentive that is set to expire after the first half of this year, the New Jersey Association of Realtors said.
Real estate brokers, home builders and appraisers have been touting the national first-time home buyer’s tax credit as an integral part to the recent stabilization in home prices.
Some comments on the credit: (Courtesy of Calculated Risk):
The Very Expensive Home Buyer Tax Credit
It’s terrible policy,” says Mark Calabria of the libertarian Cato Institute.
“It’s awful policy,” says Andrew Jakabovics, associate director for housing and economics at the liberal Center for American Progress. “It’s incredibly expensive. It’s not well targeted.”
…
“We paid $8,000 to at least 1.5 million people to do something they were going to do anyway,” Jakabovics says.
…
“A heck of a lot of people would have bought the house anyway,” says Ted Gayer, an economist at the Brookings Institution.
…
The tax break, due to expire at the end of November, is on track to cost $15 billion, twice what Congress had planned. In other words, it will cost $43,000 for every new homebuyer who would not have bought a house without the tax break.
Primo!
Final Doom says:
March 4, 2010 at 11:16 pm
al (236)-
Not one penny of GSE debt is on the federal books.
Tack the GSE balance sheets onto them, and we’re f-ing Ethipoia.
Doom
Last i saw the GSE debt was at about 6.3 – 6.5 TRILLION. Thats about half of the amount of existing treasury debt
I wonder what would happen to interest rates if that debt was acknowledged.
Doom,
Consider that if they actually booked the GSE debt the US would instantly be in technical default as we would be above the legal debt ceiling despite the recent increase by congress.
John
maybe you’ll get another round of hot bonds out of this:
The rating company said GMAC commingled cash flows from multiple bonds in a single custodial account, Moody’s said in a statement. This allowed GMAC to use cash from loans in one bond for principal and interest payments on another, it said.
By allowing the commingling, it “increases the likelihood that some RMBS deals may not be able to recover the amounts ‘borrowed’ by the servicer to fund advances or another RMBS deal if a servicer bankruptcy were to occur,” Moody’s said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0416567720100304
Corruption? What corruption?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35720827/ns/world_news-washington_post
How soon til our gubmint rips a page out of this playbook?
sl
The Post Office is very important in the Post Apocalyptic future. Remember Keven Costner in “The Postman”, is the one who brought Society back from the brink, with the new Pony Express.
confused (6)-
Thanks for that. I don’t remember, because I quit watching The Postman at about the 10-minute mark…which was actually less time than I gave to Waterworld.
You deserve some sort of award if you were able to sit through that movie.
Confused,
We dont need the post office. We only need to keep a few post office uniforms in good order….
is it true the next GTG will have a conga line going between realtor offices?
might want to lock the underwear drawer at your next open house
http://www.wauwatosanow.com/news/85127427.html
gross
yikes (10)-
In central NJ, open houses have long been targeted by thieves who work in pairs. Many teams work for weeks on end, and the cops never catch them.
And, they’re looking for valuables.
From today’s WSJ:
Stores Land in Gun-Control Crossfire
By VANESSA O’CONNELL And JULIE JARGON
Starbucks Corp. and some other chain stores in the U.S. are finding themselves caught in the middle of a firearms debate, as gun-control advocates go up against a burgeoning campaign by gun owners to carry holstered pistols in public places.
The “open carry” movement, in which gun owners carry unconcealed handguns as they go about their everyday business, is loosely organized around the country but has been gaining traction in recent months. Gun-control advocates have been pushing to quash the movement, including by petitioning the Starbucks coffee chain to ban guns on its premises.
Anti-gun activists gathered at the original Starbucks in Seattle to push retailers like the coffee chain to ban customers from openly carrying guns, WSJ’s Nick Wingfield reports.
Journal Community
Businesses have the final say on their property. But the ones that don’t opt to ban guns—such as Starbucks—have become parade grounds of sorts for open-carry advocates.
Starbucks on Wednesday, while bemoaning being thrust into the debate, defended its long-standing policy of complying with state open-carry weapons laws, in part by stating that its baristas, or “partners,” could be harmed if the stores were to ban guns. The chain said that in the 43 states where open carry is legal, it has about 4,970 company-operated stores.
The company added: “The political, policy and legal debates around these issues belong in the legislatures and courts, not in our stores.”
In 29 states, it’s legal to openly carry a loaded handgun, without any form of government permission. Another 13 allow an unconcealed loaded handgun with a carry permit, according to opencarry.org, which is a loosely organized Web forum for the movement.
In California, where it’s legal to carry a gun openly without a license in most places as long as it’s unloaded, growing numbers of armed people have been turning up at Starbucks, restaurants, and retailers, with handguns holstered to their belts to protest what they contend are unfair limits on permits to carry a concealed weapon.
An “open carry” gun advocate watches a gun-control protest Wednesday in Seattle, Starbucks’ home turf.
The open-carry movement began spreading in 2004 after some pro-gun advocates in Virginia began researching state laws and discovered that many states don’t have laws to prevent unconcealed carry of handguns.
“The concealed carry movement has been successful but open carry is coming up,” in popularity, said Mike Stollenwerk, a retired Army lieutenant colonel and co-founder of the opencarry.org site.
“I feel other people have the right to carry firearms into a business if it’s okay with the business,” said William Moore, a carpenter from Lynwood, Wash., and an open-carry advocate who says he doesn’t carry firearms into Starbucks coffee shops.
A group called Protest Easy Guns plans on Saturday to protest Starbucks’s policy of allowing customers in open carry weapons states to carry guns inside the coffee shops. The group of women said on Thursday that it plans to demonstrate outside an Alexandria, Va., Starbucks.
Supporters are spreading in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, and other areas. Some are making lists of “OC-friendly” locales, and encouraging boycotts of businesses with no-weapons signs. Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Home Depot Inc., Best Buy Co. and Barnes & Noble Inc., are designated as “open-carry” friendly in some online forums or say they abide by existing laws. “Our practice is to comply with local and state laws,” said Best Buy spokeswoman Sue Busch Nehring.
Open-carry proponents are also taking advantage of some momentum in state legislatures to expand gun rights, although most new and pending measures don’t specifically address unconcealed handguns.
Should people be allowed to carry guns into places like Starbucks? The company says it’ll abide by local laws, but customers in San Francisco tell Rex Crum they really don’t relish handguns with their lattes.
Open carry hasn’t been part of the official focus of the pro-gun lobbying group, the National Rifle Association, which has 4 million members.
In the past 20 years, the NRA has focused on expanding the ability of U.S. gun owners to carry a handgun in a concealed manner.
Today, 38 states have a “shall issue” permit process. Two states don’t require a license to conceal carry. Eight states have “may issue” concealed carry laws, meaning permits will be given with the discretion of a local politician or police officer.
“We support the self-defense rights of law-abiding Americans in accordance with local, state and federal laws,” says Andrew Arulanandam, an NRA spokesman, who declined further comment on open-carry activity.
Some chains have banned guns from their restaurants, even in open-carry states, because of the impact it could have on non-gun-carrying customers.
“We are concerned that the open display of firearms would be particularly disturbing to children and their parents,” said a spokesperson for the California Pizza Kitchen restaurant chain.
A Peet’s Coffee & Tea spokesperson said that while the firm “respects and values all individuals’ rights…our policy is not to allow customers carrying firearms in our stores or on our outdoor seating premises unless they are uniformed or identified law enforcement officers.”
The Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence, which partnered with Credo Action, an activist group that uses mobile phones to effect social change, says it has collected more than 28,000 signatures on a petition to get Starbucks to change its policy.
Pro-gun advocates have taken to openly carrying guns to Starbucks as a way of testing corporations’ stances on state weapons laws, William Spain reports.
Journal Community
“ Carrying a gun is an extreme response to a problem that, for the vast majority of Americans, doesn’t exist and never will. ”
—Scott McIntyre
Allowing customers who are armed with unconcealed guns on the premises “can’t be good for business—it galvanizes people, and some of them won’t patronize Starbucks after this,” said Joshua Horwitz, executive director of the Educational Fund to Stop Gun Violence, a gun-control organization in Washington, D.C.
Indeed, not all baristas agree that the Starbucks policy protects them. “I think the policy shows complete disregard for the safety and sentiments of their workers. The only thing worse than a yuppie upset with how their frappuccino turned out is a yuppie with a gun who’s unhappy with how their frappuccino turned out,” says Erik Forman, a Starbucks barista and union member in Minneapolis.
The IWW Starbucks Workers Union on Wednesday issued a statement, saying “We appreciate the vigorous debate taking place by principled individuals on both sides of this issue. However, to date we are not aware of any efforts by Starbucks to widely engage its workers who are directly affected by open-carry gun laws. We believe an appropriate solution cannot be reached without doing so.”
I would love to carry around my Mossberg with a shoulder strap.
(12)-
Then go get a job grinding granola or doing community relations at your local NPR station, you wussed-out nancy boy.
“I think the policy shows complete disregard for the safety and sentiments of their workers. The only thing worse than a yuppie upset with how their frappuccino turned out is a yuppie with a gun who’s unhappy with how their frappuccino turned out,” says Erik Forman, a Starbucks barista and union member in Minneapolis.”
There can be only one theme song for the guns-at-Starbucks debate:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzRGtVQhzSI
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704541304575099951035681776.html
“Study Sees FHA Taking More Risk”
“The agency has traditionally turned a profit for the U.S. government. But the economists warn that by understating the risks it faces, the FHA has increased the likelihood that it will have to ask Congress for money for the first time in its 75-year history.”
Wait a minute – Who here said this would happen? All present – Stand up please.
ChiFi, this is for you:
From the Harvard Crimson:
” . . . It’s been a little over five months since I found out I did not get an offer. In those five months, certain topics have been rehearsed with wearying regularity. Greater world, on behalf of the Harvard 3Ls with no offers, let me tell you the things we know:
1. It’s not our fault. The economy changed unexpectedly, and things are tough all over. . . .
Joined to this knowledge is the understanding that it is, to be fair, rather difficult as a Harvard Law Student to abandon all self-awareness and immerse oneself in self-pity. We remain conscious of the privileges we enjoy and the opportunities that exist for us even in our darkest moments. That isn’t to say we who were no-offered have no room at all for despair. But it feels impolite. . . . .
. . . the summer ended by confronting us with our deepest fear. Like many people praised for intelligence, talent, and discipline, Harvard Law Students are prone to the paranoia that we will one day be exposed as the frauds we suspect ourselves to be.
Then-Dean Elena Kagan ’86 alluded to these fears when we began our time at Harvard. Addressing the Class of 2010, she told us that our anxieties were ill-founded, and that we had all long since established ourselves as deserving of our reputations and the opportunities they made possible. . . . . And employers looked at our grades, and our journals, and our work product, and our work ethic, and said, “We don’t want you.” We came from Harvard, and they were nonetheless unimpressed. . . .
And so we wonder – what mark on our resume is so bad that it outweighs the Crimson H? . . . ”
/snip
In central Florida visiting my sister and father. Interesting to see the amount empty, lifeless homes in her development. Crazy because some have lockboxes but none have For Sale signs. Yesterday he told me he wants to buy a house here in all of this mess.
At 72, homebuying is all he knows. He’s owned for 50 years.
“Like many people praised for intelligence, talent, and discipline, Harvard Law Students are prone to the paranoia that we will one day be exposed as the frauds we suspect ourselves to be.”
And believe me, they are frauds. As are we all.
#2 Hyde,
A trillion ain’t what it used to be.
[16] cindy
“All present – Stand up please.”
Wow, I think I just felt the earth move here in jersey.
Anybody catch Liz Warren on Charlie Rose last night? She basically said the wheels are starting to come off. By the end of the interview, I thought she was going to break down in tears.
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/10895
[12]
““ Carrying a gun is an extreme response to a problem that, for the vast majority of Americans, doesn’t exist and never will. ”
—Scott McIntyre
I call dibs on his wallet. And in the event of TEOTWAWKI, on everything else in his possession.
21 – Nom – LOL – On this board anyway.
Okay Clot – Stop grinning….
[14] doom
Mr. Forman had best remember the axiom of retail: The Customer is Always Right.
[24] cindy
Thanks. Now go back to sleep.
plume (17)-
We are overlawyered and underfiduciaried (is that a word?). HLS or not, there is a supply/demand imbalance being played out in even that rarefied air.
The one constant is that while the value of the JD from these egghead factories diminished, the tuition and the associated debt continue to spiral upward.
Unemployment numbers: -36k, 9.7% for those who believe the gubbmint stats.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Snow-expected-to-cloud-apf-2244283326.html?x=0&.v=9
plume (23)-
This guy should make an excellent human shield.
“Carrying a gun is an extreme response to a problem that, for the vast majority of Americans, doesn’t exist and never will. ”
Nom 23
The guy is a dope. He is now statisically safer with peopl eopen carrying in the sotre then people not doing so.
Just because he’s scared of the big frightening handgun doesnt change reality.
Perhaps someone should walk in the store with this:
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And yes its a REAL HelloKitty AR.
Harvard Law….first cousin is a grad. Incredibly bright guy. The real deal. Furthest thing from a fraud.
Sometimes big bubbles are burst and resumes just pile up.
Doom 29
forget human shield. How about BAIT.
People of a certain age and certain nationalities are brainwwashed about the greatness of home buying.
I had an indept discussion with two separate indian couples last march where I wanted to grab them by the neck and choke them to death.
Back then NY Munis were paying around 6% tax free on a 30 year muni. The 100 year average price increase of homes is around 3%.
Both wanted to buy an investment property and put down 100K with a 30 year mortgage. Both times I said on the muni over 30 years you will get $180,000 of interest tax free and expense free on your 500K investment property you will spend at least $1,000,000 in mortgage interest and tax. And 3% annual upkeep and insurance which is $450,000 all to get an apprecation rate of 3% a year which will be $450,00.
SO your home will result in a loss of 900K over 30 years, so you need 900K in rent just to break even. Plus what headaches. Plus anymoney you make over rent is taxable.
Answer, real estate always goes up and is safer than bonds or stocks. Doesn’t matter what you say. At that point I should have hit them with a baseball bat.
d2b says:
March 5, 2010 at 8:34 am
In central Florida visiting my sister and father. Interesting to see the amount empty, lifeless homes in her development. Crazy because some have lockboxes but none have For Sale signs. Yesterday he told me he wants to buy a house here in all of this mess.
At 72, homebuying is all he knows. He’s owned for 50 years.
Ment a loss on one million.
26 – Nom
“Now go back to sleep.”
Is that a slam? Do you mean metaphorically or for real?
22 – Clot – Thanks for posting Elizabeth. She’s a fave.
#33 John,
My MIL is one of those brain washed people. She was so angry we kept renting instead of buying. Thought renting was throwing money away, even though It was 12 to 14k a year cheaper to rent than own a pos 3 bedroom if you could put 20% down. Plus we didn’t have to pay for any of the repairs.
My previous landlord tried to sell us the place we were renting. He claimed the mtg would only be $200 a month more than rent. He neglected to mention taxes and insurance. And repairs and upgrades. He kept bugging us. I told him we are moving overseas in 2010 or 2011 so he would STFU. He also kept talking about building equity. I wanted to know how do you build equity when it costs 1k a month or more to own then rent, and the value of the property is depreciating 1% a month.
Hyde can we use him for the bear terrorizing Wayne?
Cindy (36)-
I think every time Liz opens her mouth, she inches closer to her inevitable mysterious fatal car crash.
37 – Clot
It is just so sad – the way she is marginalized…She is simply trying to protect the disappearing middle class. She has no monster agenda. She simply wants folks to do what they said they intended to do: Clear the banks’ books – the balance sheets – so we can get our economy moving again. Not such a tall order.
The time to do so has come and gone and she knows Summers and Geithner are too fascinated with the big banks to set things straight. Such a lost opportunity….She appears to be on the verge of tears because it is so sad.
safe (37)-
Amway is a company that is a massive fail for virtually all its individual associates, yet it continues on.
There are any number of tales of even the highest level people being financially ruined by a business that is, in essence, a giant pyramid scheme.
What keeps these schemes going? It’s the massive efforts of those who are trapped in it- and sinking fast- to continue in the belief that one more recruit, one more advancement of level, one more revenue stream will be enough to turn the tide. It is delusion and denial- taken to mass hysteria level- married to feverish expenditure of energy and capital.
Homeownership is the same thing. Much of the repetition of the tired old housing bromides is the unconscious fear of an older generation (that desperately needs to cash out of housing) that the younger generation will not buy into the myth.
Pain
Yes
Cindy
“Not such a tall order”
yes,it is. It would require that you essentially dismantal the global banking system as it currently exists.
I agree it should be done but it won’t until we crash and burn
Cindy (40)-
The thing that’s really sad is that she understands a handful of good, old-fashioned BK lawyers could’ve worked through this whole crisis with no trillions spent and no creation of massive, generational moral hazard. Haircut the debt, blow out the equity and move on. The minute it became obvious TPTB were going to violate those simple principles, the timer was set for our eventual economic destruction. The only open question is, when will the timer strike 0? Tough call, since the people in charge of the timer don’t even realize they engaged it.
She knows what a flim-flam and bank robbery has been perpetrated, and she can only talk about it in code.
hyde (43)-
It will be easy then, as the definition of TPTB will be anyone who has a good store of personal armaments, a pack of vicious dogs and control of several gas stations.
In absence of all else, might-makes-right is an excellent guiding principle for society.
“I agree it should be done but it won’t until we crash and burn.”
It occurs to me that slamming a couple of planes into some tall buildings could do wonders for rekindling the myth of American homeownership.
Time to go to work. The dogs inside my head are beginning to give me commands.
43 – Kettle
“Not such a tall order” was way back when the issue was meant to be addressed. As she points out in the tape, those who made the gains should have suffered the losses – not us.
Have a great day all….
#41 Doom,
Greed, fear, and leverage make the world go round.
“She understands a handful of good, old-fashioned BK lawyers could’ve worked through this whole crisis with no trillions spent and no creation of massive, generational moral hazard. Haircut the debt, blow out the equity and move on. The minute it became obvious TPTB were going to violate those simple principles, the timer was set for our eventual economic destruction.”
Aye.
The best part was when she said:
“You can preserve the business and sh!t can the management to send a message.” (in so many words)
With catchy slogans like that, She and Ron Paul could start their own party.
#41an older generation (that desperately needs to cash out of housing) that the younger generation will not buy into the myth.
But they (the older generation), did it for the children (younger generation).
I think responsible people should be allowed to have guns, but if I walked into a Starbucks and saw a dude with a gun on a holster I would immediately leave. This sort of thing is childish and so obviously threatening that it gives responsible gun owners a bad name.
#52
No that’s all right, that’s the guy who makes the holes in bagels and donuts.
#17
what this reveals is that law schools– even Harvard– are scams. You leave with zero practical knowledge and likely over $150k of debt which is not dischargeable in bankruptcy (unlike basically any other kind of consumer debt). If no big law firm is willing to take you on for your pure potential and train you, even coming out of Harvard you have zero (actually negative) value. People should proceed with extreme caution at this point before heading down the law school path.
#54 I am amazed at the number of people who go, just to go, or who believe it is a gurantee of a good job. I guess I am naieve, but I would think going to law school should be something one really wants to do, in other words a passion.
I picture clot on line in starbucks gripping a sawed-off shotgun with two hands, strap of ammo shells hanging diagnal across his shoulder, back-up handgun strapped to his ankle, waiting to order a grande cappucino and croissant.
#43
““Not such a tall order”
yes,it is. It would require that you essentially dismantal the global banking system as it currently exists.”
Bingo. And there is no way the USA is going to go down this road along because the financial industry would just relocate overseas.
On the bright side for Warren, it looks like we will have some kind of consumer financial products safety agency, which she has long advocated for.
New interview with r shiller on tech ticker…
“Housing is in a “precarious state,” Shiller says, expressing concern about the emerging trend of Americans walking away from their mortgages.
I think there is a definite risk of a turn down again in home prices,” says Shiller, who co-created the Case-Shiller Home Price index, a widely-used measure of the housing market. “If home prices decline 10% or 20% more, we are in big trouble.”
BLS Birth/Deat model added 97k jobs. 97k fake jobs. So we lost over 100k jobs last month.
http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm
“BLS Birth/Deat model added 97k jobs”
yes but it took over 400k jobs last month though…
or is the adjustment disregarded when it ‘takes’ jobs?
Is it time to declare all existing swap contracts null and void and to prevent anyone from placing a bet on a company/event in which they do not have an active position?
Skep 58
The current global banking system is almost a pure ponzi scheme. It should be burned alive.
Embrass the chaos!
Embrass the chaos! = Embrace The Chaos
john #33,
You should see what Indians are doing to real estate in India.
I recently came back from a visit to Calcutta, a second (or third?) tier city in India with much cheaper real estate than places like Mumbai. I had the opportunity to visit a new highrise condo development under construction. A 2 bedroom under 900 sq ft is going for about USD 120K. There will be no dedicated water supply and the “view” on the northside will be of a 30 foot wide open air sewer.
Five years ago, this same property would have sold for one-third the cost (USD 40k). But in the new and improved India, they’re not making any more land and real estate is a sure thing. Ya just can’t lose.
And besides, the property is near a metro line! Not walkable, of course. Walkable to the metro would hike the price up another USD 100K.
Veto 61
The BLS birth/death model is so heavily rigged as to be close to meaningless.
Skep,
Why such a negative response to the gun scenario? the stats as well as real world experience where that does happen all show that its not an issue.
I see it as more of a “use your rights or lose them” issue that is long over due
Doom I would like to openly carry a Barret, with a MPK as a side arm, some reason I don’t think they will allow it.
I caught heat last year for suggesting that my father should rent a year-round apt in central Florida. Cost would have been about 9k per year. Instead now he will look to buy, but we should be able to talk him out of it. At 72 I don’t want him locked into a property so far away. He only wants to be in Florida from Nov-Mar.
pain (67)-
MPK is a helluva submachine gun.
veto (58)-
IMO, this is a best-case scenario. Schiller should’ve seen enough by now to make a bolder call.
“If home prices decline 10% or 20% more, we are in big trouble.”
All BLS stats are pure lies.
Clot shot one in north carolina, suprisingly acurate even in burst mode
“Schiller should’ve seen enough by now to make a bolder call.”
Actually shiller says if he had to take a guess using his old forecasting techniques, he would predict a recovery, although he is leaving room for the possibility of a double dip.
But he is not the type to go out on a limb and is smart to be realistic and open minded about predictions. Because predictions are often wrong, especially when it comes to something with so many moving parts like the economy.
After the crisis subsides shiller will still have a career because he never stuck his foot in his mouth to desperately grab at two months of fame.
#73 IMO The old methods will not work. There will be no recovery until there is a dramatic improvement in the employmwnt and wage category. Plus in our area a $1,000 to $2,000 increase in property taxes this year a on POS cape already at 10k or more is going to hurt prices further in our area.
Veto 74
Shiller is a political mouth piece at this point.
He has enough data available to him to see where all this goes. Its not the end of the world, but its a long cold winter for housing.
he cant speak much beyond what he is saying now. Even if he agreed with the dominant sentiment on this blog,a public pronouncement by him of such a magnitude would be the death nell of his career regardless of whether he is correct or not. He would be seriously jeopardizing to many monied interests, and as such he would be “dealt” with.
#265 Al (previous thread)
“Why are you focused on the view count not the content? Or does the truth not conform to your NPR indoctrination”
I’m focused on View counts as it shows just how far out on the fringe the content is. You keep posting these types of links and it puts your UN taking over the world tin foil hat out there with Area 51 and Roswell.
I would be very interested to know where your independent news sources are. All we seem to get from you is cut and paste of right wing conspiracy garbage.
Remember “The Truth is out there!”
CNBC….”animal spirit” to bring the country back? Hilarious.
PGC,
to play devils’s advocate…. Area 51 and roswell are both real and happened. area 51 does (did, has been reportedly moved to CO) a fair amount of top secret research.
Something did indeed crash in Roswell. i has no personal info on either one, but at some point it becomes shades of gray
12.
Men arent truelly free until we can walk into a supermarket with an AR-15 slung over our shoulder.
Bunnies are delicious
22.
Good watch. Its good to know someone in DC can see the truth.
#76I its not the end of the world, but its a long cold winter for housing.
But for many homeowners, a long cold winter for housing is in fact the end of the world.
Hyde,
At some point it will be the bears that become the mouth piece.
Anyone who sees exactly where housing is going is not looking at all the variables.
#78 Ket
A51 does indeed exist as was a research facility. We have seen the likes of the B2 stealth getting developed in facilites like this under the radar until they are fully developed and put into service. We will not know what exactly goes on behind the doors, but I more inclined to belive it is a more of an R&D role of the likes of vertical flight than a UFO processing facility.
As for Roswell, with the air force base and the rocket testing facilities, yes something crashed and I don’t know what. But if the theorists are right and it was aliens, why have there not been more incidents in the US and other parts of the world.
Veto 84
Markets dont travel in straight lines. Historical trends in RE do not settle in 3-5 years from a historic peak.
You are correct that around 2014 or so when even joe sixpack is bemoaning the worthlessness of housing that they will then be the mouth pieces. That is also when the smart money quietly starts to jump back in
[52] skep,
That is pretty judgmental. You assume immediately that anyone with a sidearm is a threat.
Does that include law enforcement officers in plainclothes?
Air marshals on break?
Other first responders that have carry permits (cuz frankly, they need them sometimes)? S
omeone coming back from the range who did not think it prudent to leave a weapon unattended in his car?
Or your neighbor, who you thought was reasonable and level-headed, but now he has a hog leg and you cannot imagine any reason why he would?
Project Blue Book proved that the crash at Roswell was involved aliens: They were from Juarez Mexico and were driving a ’38 Ford pickup.
[31] essex
Read more carefully. It says that we feel we are frauds. Even HLS grads.
Personally, I think that makes for better lawyering.
PGC 85
I am not even going down the whole “alien cover up” road…. I rate that as highly unlikely but not impossible.
Just playing devils advocate.
For more fun, consider that the original HAARP project design was hypothetically capable or weather modification through atmospheric modification. Once again i take no stance as its all wild speculation.
Re: Roswell
I find it hard to believe that an Intelligent Life Form would develop a means of conveyence across light years of space & time….just to land in the middle of the New Mexico desert.
Are Cattle Mutilations really that big a deal on the other side of the galaxy ?
76.
“The road to tyranny, we must never forget, begins with the destruction of the truth.”
Thats your boy Bill Clinton.
When you know the government and media are full of sh#t everything else becomes plausible.
If you could control what Americans read, see, and hear you will be able to control how Americans think about these subjects.
News Corp: Rupert Murdoch
Fox Entertainment Group, Twentieth Century Fox, 30 American television stations, the New York Post and Boston Herald newspapers and a number of Britain’s largest circulation newspapers (The Times, The Sun, The News of the World) and more.
NPR. Your favorite is funded by the The Corporation for Public Broadcasting. The CPB is was created by an act of the United States Congress and largely funded by the United States Federal Government. Hmmmm. State run media just like the USSR. Now if you are comfortable with Communists inside the gates than you must be a Communist. No?
Heres some homework. Tell me who owns Fox News, CNN, MSNBC, Time
Fiddy 91,
Its the alien equivalent of GGG Pron
[55] 3b
That is what I tell anyone who will listen. From the time I knew what the word meant, I wanted to be a lawyer.
And I almost did not because I questioned that belief at a critical time. But I never dropped it, and always saw it as inevitable. Eventually some friends convinced me to get off the schneid and take the LSAT. Rest is history.
Fortunately, because I did a lot of other things, I can envision life not being a lawyer. Still, its hard to do, and for those unhired 3Ls, whereever they are, it is hell on earth.
Cheaper housing means more money to spend on other things. In a consumers based society I fail to understand why expensive housing is good for anyone. How much of this effort is to avoid bank writedowns?
Fiddy,
DO NOT google that while at work
Final Doom says:
March 5, 2010 at 9:26 am
Time to go to work. The dogs inside my head are beginning to give me commands.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THh1pPWEoWs
“theme song for the guns-at-Starbucks ”
With all apologies to Joe Strummer and the boys:
When they walk through your front door
Packing a legal gun
Will you serve them a frappicino
Or a late with a sweet bun
When the NRA come knocking
On your locked front door
Will you send them to the drive-thru
Or tell them you got no more
You can hate us
You can fear us
But you’re gonna have to serve
Oh, the guns of Starbucks
“Historical trends in RE do not settle in 3-5 years”
Hyde, the last bubble in 1987 crashed and then stabilized by 1991. 4 years from peak.
And if you are using historical trends to base your predictions then why are you calling for another 45% crash from today’s price levels?
that never happened before in recent history so you must be using some other reasoning that has nothing to do with history.
“I fail to understand why expensive housing is good for anyone.”
It is good for a few thousand very wealthy (until the writedowns come) folks who arte very connected (some would say they hold the leash on the policy makers) people who will move heaven and earth to retain their spot in the top brick of the pyramid that is the U.S. economy.
d2b
How much of this effort is to avoid bank writedowns?
A significant amount of the effort is for that very reason. Banks, governments, and individuals all became very highly leverage directly off of housing or a derivative thereof. As a result If prices do not keep going up the current people who are leveraged to the sky (essentially all of us now that the banks got “bailed out”.) all lose big time. Its not a 1-1 loss due to the leverage, its magnified by the degree of leverage.
Came across this on CNN. Something for PGC to take issue with.
http://money.cnn.com/2010/03/04/news/economy/medicare_doctor_costs/index.htm
Something tells me that it is gonna suck to be a medicare patient in the future.
Regarding aliens. I have no idea. Ive never seen one but if I did I would treat him the same way as a UN blue helmet. Joking, sort of.
There is such a thing called Majestic 12.
“How much of this effort is to avoid bank writedowns?”
90% is my guess
the other 10% is because high home prices = equity and makes people want to spend more when they see equity on paper.
No double dip, but when home credit expires and interest rise home sales will stall a bit and prices will fall, after several year they willslowly slowly recover.
No housing boom for awhile. My problem is and a few of my friends problems is we can afford big trade up homes but the taxes on those homes are pushing 24K, my home insurance would double and heating maint would double. That is around 3k month out the door that I get zero tax benefit on or build equity. I rather blow some of that money on vacations and football tickets and put rest in bank. The last time houses bubbled incomes were lower so people could deduct RE taxes and heating and insurance cost a lot less.
Libs, as long as you are down there, can you check the transmission fluid on the bus?
“White House advisers are considering recommending alleged 9/11 mastermind Khalid Shaikh Mohammed be tried in a military court, not a civilian one in New York, a senior administration official confirmed Friday.
This would be an about face for the Obama administration which has consistently insisted trying Mohammed in civilian court would be a powerful symbol of U.S. rule of law.
In November 2009 Attorney General Eric Holder announced his intention to do just that. . . .”
Regarding aliens.
My friend once dated a girl who looked just like an alien.
We reffered to her as ‘alien’
Veto,
I am using historical trend time scales as well as historically stable debt ratio’s.
Historical debt ratio’s combined with decreasing real incomes means housing prices must fall further in real terms, even if they end up flat in nominal terms due to inflation.
The long term housing trend tends to be about an 18 yr cycle peak to peak.
That does not mean each peak or each trough is at the same level. The more the government tries to delay the housing drop the longer they will push out the current trough. We have also reached debt saturation and 6-1, 8-1 home price ratio’s aren’t sustainable in the NAR’s wildest dreams.
If as you have suggested the ( and i agree with) the US is headed for long term real income drops, then the degree to which housing has to drop is only further magnified.
The current debt levels and bubble magnitude were only possible with significant securitization. Who is going to be willing to buy up all the securitized garbage now? It wont disappear over night, but i believe the housing securitization game has been played out.
Now also consider that the last bubble occurred during a period of mostly sound residential lending practices. It was still a very painful burst for a large # of people.
this time the lending practices were outright fraudulent and on top of that the effect has been magnified because they pulled in a large # of “buyers” who would have never qualified under conventional lending standards. These unqualified “owners” will be washed out of the system along with a # of “owners” who legitimately qualified. The unqualified fraudulent owners only act to magnify the impact of deflating the bubble.
#98then stabilized by 1991. 4 years from peak.
And than continued downward from there. or at least it did in my blue ribbony bergen co train town.
#104 Double dip is a given.
Wow, Illinois school districts talking about laying off 13,000 next year.
http://www.myfoxillinois.com/dpp/news/illinois/03042010_schools_could_see_thousands_of_layoffs
Now if that comes to NJ I may have to turn from my doom and gloom ways.
Mr. Hyde –
I don’t have to Google it..I know what it means.
Besides, Google will probably sell my info to some German web-site that I’d never get out of my cache !
Nom,
Other than wasting a trillion dollars filling potholes, giving raises to some people (and calling that “saving” jobs), and giving some foreign governments an excuse to get friendlier with us (something anyone who was NOT Gro. the shrub Bush could have done), B.O. has not done anything in his first year, and the window for him to do anything is rapidly closing. Just hope that Scalia (and similar justices) stays healthy or there is a place he could do something but, after the midterm elections (which really means after July) he will be a spent force.
61.Shore Guy says:
March 5, 2010 at 10:20 am
Is it time to declare all existing swap contracts null and void and to prevent anyone from placing a bet on a company/event in which they do not have an active position?
Exactly. Call them what they are – gambling contracts. Illegal gambling contracts were never enforceable in court. Have a nice day. Didn’t they tell the regulators that “Its not insurance”?
“Double dip is a given”
Make mine chocolate and coffe, or, if gelato, mango and raspberry.
coffee, even
“Historical debt ratio’s combined with decreasing real incomes means housing prices must fall further in real terms”
Hyde, no it doesnt mean that. it is possible that as a long term trend, or over longer periods of time than 18 yrs, housing continues to becomes more expensive.
Simply looking at 2 factors, debt level and income basically ignores supply and demand as well as a huge elephant in the room – govt and politics.
Securitization may be dead but nobody can predict when or where the govt will stop dumping wheelbarrels of money directly into housing. This may just be the beggining.
If they start bulldozing cities tomorrow a model like that is toast.
Let me clarify that i am not arguing that prices will stabilize or go up or go down. I am simply saying that the variables are infinite and any realistic predictions would require a consideration of so much inside information and unknowns, that to say “prices are definately going x from here”, is impossible.
Although i do respect models like yours that at least tries to organize a basis for a prediction. But any model like that (or the one i did using lt returns) is far from 100% reliable and requires about 435 asterics.
“Exactly. Call them what they are – gambling contracts.”
People wil lose money on the voiding, but tough. The taxpayers have already lost enough and, besides, they were big boys. Doing so removes a HUGE millstone from our economic necks at a time that we are struggling to stay afloat.
It may be a shame if some billionaires become millionaires in the process but, I can live with that better than I can live with the USG paying off the schmucks whose bets are dragging down the rest of us.
“america needs to get rid of welfare and social security. The bottom 25% can’t be saved, lets save the other 75% and move on.”
This is probably the smartest comment I have seen posted in awhile. It must have been posted by a military officer or trauma doc.
#118 Economic triage. Whoa.
“Harvard 3Ls with no offers”
And the nextg crop of 2Ls will be beginning the summer programs soon and then what? Are firms going to go back and say, “Hey, Jones from last year was pretty good, lets give Jones an offer before one of the folks who impressed us this summer”? I doubt it. Any 3L who does not get asked back to do at least a partial summer this year, has got to be wondering “why did I go into such debt, and take myself out of the earning pool to do so?” With so many decent associates floating around unemployed or underemployed, I would hate to be coming out of law school now or in the next three years.
116.
Given the 2 options of buying in this unstable environment or renting and doing my best to preserve capital I would opt for the later.
Yes, I am a bag holder.
Once the uncertainty is out of the market things will get better. Of course the uncertainty is thermonuclear war, collapse of the dollar, civil war, or massive interest rate increases.
“#104 Double dip is a given.”
Thanks for this in-depth and thoughtful comment.
It really adds perspective to the conversation and explains so much that it left me speechless.
Was nice talking to you about real estate predictions.
in the future try to condense your posts down to two words if possible because all this info at once is overwhelming.
Shore[117];
I have not a drop of giveashit in my eye for the principals. I also never believed the TBTF hype. Cemetaries are full of indispensable people, and corporations.
“Cemetaries are full of indispensable people, and corporations.”
Agreed.
You can stop SS today, just give me back all the money I put in. Welfare is a different case.
BTW Unemployment in the NY area among college educated people with skills in the IT, Medical, Legal, Accounting, Finance and Wall Street in Demand jobs is running around 4%. These are the people who buy homes in the tony neighborhoods within 40 miles of NYC.
High unemployment levels among middle aged and older non college educated workers whose industries such as auto, homebuilding, construction etc. has dried up is sad and is bad for the overall economy but I doubt they were buying homes in upper saddle river or brand new BMWs etc.
“Double-dip unlikely”: Robert Shiller
vs
“Double dip is a given”: 3b (109)
Hmmm. interesting contradiction there.
#91 Al
OMG Bill Buckley and Big Bird are Commun1sts? Dig Up McCarthy.
Again you need to get your facts straight. CPB is fully funded by the goverment and provides funding to public radio and TV stations and independant media. The likes of NPR and PBS get about 15% of their funding from CPB and the rest from public donation and Corpoate sponsorship. The GWB admin looked to push a right wing agenda through from the CPB and used the threat of witholding the PBS grant to force PBS to push to the right to correct a so called liberal bias.
But back to the question you side steped. What sources do you use for your pursuit of the truth and independant reporting.
#125 Well if those people are buying, then there should be scare supply in the tony Bergen co towns,and in fact it is the opposite. Alss rents and prices have resumed their decline in Manhattan after some signs of stabalization at the end of 2009. As far as the leagal field still layoffs going on in many of the big NYC firms. As far as Wall st, limited hiring here and there, and many of the positions are for overseas;that I know for a fact.
hyde (75)-
I’m with you on this one. Shiller is just a kinder, gentler Otteau.
Anyone can make waffling predictions, qualify statements and pull punches. Stating a strong opinion and standing by it is not necessarily grandstanding.
People who say everything and water down their calls end up saying nothing.
127.
I hesitate to give them to a Communist. Why? Because you will subvert them and they will no longer be available. Which leads me to another topic. Most people, including myself, thought intelligence agencies were about espionage when in reality they are 80% subversion and 20% espionage.
Here are the KGB’s 4 steps to government subversion.
1. Demoralization: Complete. The people must think that they cant fend for themselves and thereby depend on the government.
2. Destabilization: Complete. Destabilize the status quo. Illegal immigration, ACORN, Tea Parties, Militias, economic collapses are good examples.
3. Crisis: This is where the US is now. The legislation can create the fiscal crisis that leads to severe austerity and riots or false flags fit the bill. 9/11, Gulf of Tonkin are good examples.
4. Normalization: This is when the tanks roll in ie Hungary in the 50′s. If done incrementally it is referenced as “Like the cold autumn wind.”
#101 Nom
“while another 65% have private insurance plans that peg their payments on Medicare’s rates.”
So the government is to blame for the insurance companies shafting him.
Despite the pain, some commuters in Hoboken Friday morning seemed to understand.
“Unfortunately people are out of work, they’re not using mass transit, mass transit is suffering,” Garfield resident Frank Viccaro said. “It’s like any other business – you have to do what you have to do to keep afloat.”
Is that THE frank?
veto (98)-
I was there at the last crash. The whole “stabilized by ’91″ is a revisionist line of crap. It was a friggin’ cataclysm, and I figured it’d be the worst I’d ever see in my life.
Then, this happened. You can’t begin to compare now to then, either. today’s collapse is 10x larger than RTC…and those are not my metrics.
Veto
Lets boil it down a bit. What ultimately drives home prices? Income. There are many factor sin home prices, but int he end, they all come back to income
Nows lets consider 3 simplistic models:
1) REAL income goes up on average over the next 10 years
2) REAL income stays flat over the next 10 years
3)REAL income drops over the next 10 years.
The only scenario that would allow REAL (inflation adjusted) prices to rise stably in the long term is scenario #1. In scenario 2 the effective amount of money available to support a mortgage drops due to increasing costs of living expenses (i.e. inflation).
If incomes do not increase in real terms then how do home prices increase in the long term? This little majic trick was indeed acomplished previously in order to inflate the current bubble. but do you really believe that that can be done again? Its essentially a ponzi scam and such a scam needs a continuous stream of new fools to in order to grow.
We have saturated the globe with debt as a result of our ponzi extravaganza. the only way we pull that off again is if we initiate a debt jubilee and start all over.
In real inflation adjusted terms, how do prices go up over the long term with out being bubbleicious if real inflation adj income is not increasing as well?
plume (105)-
The only thing better would be a televised summary execution.
That’d give those granola-sucking NPR wusses something to talk about.
#122 No need to be snippy. It is my opinion, based on my earlier post that continued high unemployment coupled with stagnant wages, and out of control property taxes means that in our area at least, prices will continue to decline or do the double dip. Further you can throw in the expiration of the silly homebuyer tax credit, and the fed’s ending of MBS purchases too (perhaps Schiller or “Chiller” as we used to affectionaly call him is looking at it from a national level,and where prices have declined 50% or more I would agree that probably no double dip there).
Feed his ass to wild dogs, and let them rip him apart.
moose (123)-
You’d be the cherry on the sundae. Go play in traffic.
“Cemetaries are full of indispensable people, and corporations.”
I’m pretty sure John is Dick Armey.
Even if he’s not, I know he can’t resist the bait of cracking back on a Dick Armey reference.
“You can stop SS today, just give me back all the money I put in.”
133.
Doom,
If you witnessed the collapse of 91 and this is 10x worse what is the bottom hypothetically in regards to home prices in NJ.
50% off peak? A return to 91 levels?
Am I missing something?
Stock Equity funds up 70%
Bond Funds up 30-50%
Home price very slowly rising near me since March 2009
Bonuses up 17%
Firms are slowly bringing back raises.
Cruise ships increasing prices due to demand
Car sales, lux sales and hotel bookings rising
Bars and Restaurants in city are filling up.
To someone who was laid off last year and is at wits end and about to lose their house, unemployment and cobra they are not seeing any of this as the network is slowly becoming all unemployed people.
The sad part of the long term unemployed is that less and less firms want them. I know Morgan Stanley for instance has instructed Head Hunters not to send people out of work for more than six months. The newly laid off are far more likely to land a job than the people out of work a year, the stink of long term unemployment and despair is a turn off to the pretty girls in HR.
Since some of you ‘tards think that walking around with loaded firearms is safe and should be acceptable to those of us with functional brains and an evolved sense of public order, I think I should be entitled to waltz around you with a vial of anthrax.
#133 I was there at the last crash. The whole “stabilized by ‘91″ is a revisionist line of crap. It was a friggin’ cataclysm, and I figured it’d be the worst I’d ever see in my life.
I was there too, I lived it, and others lived it. Had I sold my first house when I wanted I would have taken a loss of over 40% from my bubble purchase price, which we decliend to do, and that was in 1993. We used to go out and look at houses for sale and what we could have paid for bigger nicer houses,and would come home depressed. So we bit the bullet and stayed a few more years,and still sold at a loss in 1997. I know family and friends who were selling condos at 50 to 60% off their purchase and more, others who rented them out for 15 years or more before unloading them at around bubble purchase price. And all of this at a time when the American economy, consumer, etc, was in far better shape than today.
“People who say everything and water down their calls end up saying nothing.”
Clot the benefit to saying nothing is that you lower your margin of error and wind up being more accurate.
cheerleading one scenario and ignoring all other factors to the contrary is over-simplifying and neglecting important contradicting complexities.
#127 Big Bird may not be a communist, but I always thought he was creepy.
“today’s collapse is 10x larger than RTC.”
ok,
but what about the govt intervention response?
Is it not 100x larger this time around…
Egads! From an ASCAP newsletter:
“Ever wonder how Jimi Hendrix would cover Lady Gaga? The day is approaching when you should be able to find out. Musicians’ opportunities to sell their recordings may be drying up due to cultural shifts brought on by changing technology, but other aspects of technology are creating a promising new market for music: the licensing of the musical style or personality of recording artists.”
God save us from this.
Being a Bronx boy I was always interested in the Son of Sam. One of the more interesting coincidences with the David Berkowitz is that in his diary he claimed to have set 1400 fires in New York during 1975. He may be responsible for allot more deaths than just the few he killed with a gun.
“Big Bird may not be a communist, but I always thought he was creepy”
But with a nice chestnut and thyme dressing, surprisingly tasty.
“What ultimately drives home prices? Income.”
No. Supply and demand is the number one factor.
The supply of homes and the number of people.
Sean,
I knew a relative of his. THOSE must have been some interesting dinnertime conversations afte he was arrested.
#144 cheerleading one scenario and ignoring all other factors to the contrary is over-simplifying and neglecting important contradicting complexities.
Not saying it is, but if that comment is directed at me. I reply that I have looked at all the scenarios, and the one that is most likely is continued price declines based on what I have already said today. It is simple common sense. Common sense is one thing I swore I woudl adhere too after the last housing bubble burst. We knew we shoudl have aited than, but al the buzz was buy now or be priced out forever, and articles and newscasts about how a whole genration would be shut out of homeownership forever.
The only thing excuse I can use for my wife and I is that we were young in our 20′s,and we fell for the nonsense. Oh and we put 20% down too.
So I respect Mr. Schiller, he at least was not a cheerleader,and was issuing warnings, while others were screaming up, up, and away. I just simply disagree with him.
142.
Whats the difference between you walking around with a vial of anthrax, the HIV positive crack whore on the corner, and the open carry gun owner?
The only difference is you are carrying a weapon of mass destruction that can indiscriminately kill. The HIV positive crack whore can spread her disease to the victim of choice. The open carry guy can put 2 in the chest and 1 in the head of the perpetrator.
Apples and Oranges.
ASCAP is full of weird news today including this:
“What if your skin could serve as an interactive surface? Researchers at Carnegie Mellon University and Microsoft have produced Skinput, an experimental device that turns the body’s largest organ into a touch screen.”
#150 You can have all the demand you want, but without income it is meaningless. We tried that nosnense already, with no money no income verification. And we saw how that all turned out.
#130 Al
Where do you get this garbage.
Before you throw the Commun1st label at me take a look at the second diagram here beside Historical origins of the terms.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_spectrum
I can be found at the Social Liberalism point, just below Ron Paul. I put you somewere down the lower right hand side, closer to Communist than I am.
“In real inflation adjusted terms, how do prices go up over the long term with out being bubbleicious if real inflation adj income is not increasing as well?”
Ket, i can think of a million scenarios which would cause prices to stay flat over a long period of time and would slowly bring them back in line with historical affordability levels.
What if unemployment starts improving today and the economy starts recovering because of the advent of a new technology of some kind?
What if we open the flood gates of immigration and start bringing in millions of new people?
What if congress doubles the tax advantage of owning a mortgage? etc etc.
nobody knows if anything like this will actually happen, but nobody can tell you for sure they wont.
NJ Transit hikes fares 25 percent, cuts services amid $300M budget gap
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2010/03/nj_transist_hikes_fares_25_per.html
#148 I will never forget that summer, the tension and suspense was unbelieveable. Especially in my area in the Bronx as it was one of the ones he targeted.
What ‘perpetrator’ are you talking about?
The cashier at Walmart who wasn’t fast enough with the keypad for your taste?
I’ll bet that in your lifetime you’ve never faced, or even witnessed, a situation involving violence where your having a firearm would have made one iota of difference.
Internet posturing sure is fun.
al (140)-
I have no real call to make, as I think the potential for further loss is infinite. I also believe that wherever the losses settle and the markets stabilize pale into comparison with the fact that the entire US economy will be in shambles and we will have descended into a hardscrabble existence as the largest and most lawless Third World nation in recorded history.
Proposed fares effective 5/1:
http://www.njtransit.com/pdf/budget_Rail-NewYork.pdf
veto (146)-
I view the gubmint intervention as gasoline onto the fire…even though the inevitable cataclysmic fireball will come later.
When Detroit resembles Mogadishu, what does the percentage drop- beginning-to-end- in housing really mean?
156.
I have no problem with live and let live so long as it doesnt adversely effect others. In other words. If you want to pump a guy in the @ss for sh#ts and giggles its ok with me but dont teach that crap to kids in a publicly funded school.
From that perspective you and I could probably live peacefully in the same neighborhood together. I would quietly walk by with my open carry AR-15 while you pack some guys sh#t on the street corner.
shore (147)-
Maybe we could all chip in and rent Moose a personality.
“…the licensing of the musical style or personality of recording artists…”
Shore (154)-
John should knock this one over the center field wall.
“Skinput, an experimental device that turns the body’s largest organ into a touch screen.”
re# 159- 3b did you sleep with your shoes on?
“but if that comment is directed at me.”
3b, no it wasnt directed at you.
your short response was frustrating at first but im not trying to escalate it into a personal argument.
you have every right to disagree with shiller. i was just asking you to share more of your reasoning and substance.
Common sense is a good reason. I cant argue with that, over the long run.
But over the short run, common sense also kept me from dumping my 401k into the stock market 50% ago. Common sense kept me from buying a home in 2002-03, which would have almost doubled in price by 2006.
Overall i agree that home prices ‘should’ correct more, obviously, but we all need to challenge eachother more on our analysis because the whole real estate discussion just becomes a watered down contest of whoever is more negative wins.
And the worst-case scenario has about the same chance of occuring as the best case scenario.
161.
Doom,
LMAO. Dont get me wrong I see that scenario as a real possibility I just have a little hope left. All the more reason to buy gold. You gotta keep your wealth mobile.
[142] meter,
“Since some of you ‘tards think that walking around with loaded firearms is safe and should be acceptable to those of us with functional brains and an evolved sense of public order, I think I should be entitled to waltz around you with a vial of anthrax.
Hubris notwithstanding, I think that I could argue persuasively to everyone but you (and perhaps PGC and Schabadoo) that you represent a greater threat to me personally, and to the public order that you feel only you can appreciate or protect, than a law-abiding citizen exercising the full range of his 2nd amendment rights, whether you are carrying anthrax or not.
And if you are going to call me a ‘tard, show up at a GTG sometime and do it to my face. I promise to leave the heat at home.
Analysis, schamalysis. I live this stuff every day; I don’t need any more numbers.
What I need is an effective new substance to abuse that will help me forget.
#158 I just checked their site, and the train I get fairly often going home in the evening is slated to be eliminated. However, they are not eliminating the weekend service where they run 22 trains on Saturday and Sunday each (inbound and out bound), and they are mostly empty. Makes perfect sense.
damn, this right-wing violence is out of control.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/CSM-writes-that-truther-Bush-hating-Pentagon-shooter-was-a-right-wing-terrorist-86619422.html
Let’s see. Nutty white professor killed three minority professors, turned out to be far left Obama activist.
Texas IRS suicide pilot turned out to be Karl Marx follower, capitalist hater.
Pentagon shooter turned out to be lefty 9/11 truther bush hater.
All these were labeled right-wing terrorism.
Please, don’t suggest drugs. I don’t like them.
“the inevitable cataclysmic fireball will come later.”
clot, a more specific definition of ‘later’ would allow me to properly decipher this conclusion.
jamil (174)-
I truly hope that whoever comes after you will let the world know that it was 100% personal.
God, you are annoying.
veto (176)-
Like I said, I’m done with predictions.
If Thelma & Louise went off the cliff 5 MPH faster, they still end up as greasy pancakes at the valley floor. The differences are to de minimus to parse.
#169 Understand your psoition. I have done my analysis, and the best analysis for me is common sense and experience. We have seen enough of balck boxes and charts etc. IMO. And so I stand where I stand.
And I believe your common sense has served you well too.
[160] meter
Al, I got this.
“What ‘perpetrator’ are you talking about?”
I believe that it was by way of explanation, but if you are looking for a rhetorical answer to a rhetorical question, that would be you, if you still have the anthrax.
“I’ll bet that in your lifetime you’ve never faced, or even witnessed, a situation involving violence where your having a firearm would have made one iota of difference.”
Sorry Al, you are on your own there. As for me, I have.
“Internet posturing sure is fun.”
No, its pathetic. Posturing in real life is more fun.
Meter
nice straw man.
People who carry legally are generally less likely to be confrontational or be involved in a confrontation.
You assume that the only reason to carry is to perpatrate violence on another. But some believe that each individual should be capable of providing for his or her own defense.
The supreme court had ruled that the police have no legal obligation to protect you.
You are suggesting that anyone who wishes to have the means and ability to provide for their own self defense in a legal manner is inherently violent .
FAIL
#66
“Why such a negative response to the gun scenario? the stats as well as real world experience where that does happen all show that its not an issue.”
anyone who feels it is necessary to be strapped inside a starbucks is clearly either a nut or someone who has very good and specific reasons to be concerned for their personal safety. Either way, I don’t want to be around him.
“what is the bottom hypothetically in regards to home prices in NJ.”
Al, here is where the board stands as far as their predictions:
http://www.scribd.com/full/25983559?access_key=key-28e7k5o63amqz9x8ik4h
The only change is that Toyne = 3b
172
Need a change of pace from Knob Creek? Give this a shot, Jamesons Gold.
http://www.thewhiskyexchange.com/P-2869.aspx
[174] jamil
I recall that Blown Stack’s writings were anticorporate, but I didn’t get where he was a Marx follower. Got a cite or link?
#125 JOhn – don’t be a USR hater!
“New Jersey lawmaker wants salaries of state workers frozen for three years”
http://www.lehighvalleylive.com/warren-county/express-times/index.ssf/2010/03/new_jersey_lawmaker_wants_sala.html
My guess is that violent protests will follow, by the usual suspects.
“Hubris notwithstanding, I think that I could argue persuasively to everyone but you (and perhaps PGC and Schabadoo) that you represent a greater threat to me personally, and to the public order that you feel only you can appreciate or protect, than a law-abiding citizen exercising the full range of his 2nd amendment rights, whether you are carrying anthrax or not.”
You feel entitled to live in a world where you can carry a firearm in public to ‘protect yourself.’ I’ll carry a bioweapon or hand grenade as my choice of deterrent. Don’t like it? Don’t eff with me. Or move.
#86
“That is pretty judgmental. You assume immediately that anyone with a sidearm is a threat.”
wrong. I am talking about weirdos who feel the need to brandish weapons in coffee shops. Not cops. My uncle and cousins went to West Point and are way into guns, so it is not like I am opposed to them on principle. But responsible people do not brandish guns in restaurants, church, school, etc.
“I’m done with predictions.”
its important to have some type of forecast. in the end, probably none of them will be ‘accurate’, except for the most boring one that was so uneventful that nobody bothered to claim it.
There are extremes on both ends. If someone’s goal is to find the apocolypse in the newspaper every day, they will surely find it.
This video demonstrates what I would call real life posturing and exercising the full extent of the 2nd amendment.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63GiXzpfGhA
#169Common sense kept me from buying a home in 2002-03, which would have almost doubled in price by 2006
And if the gov’t has not manipualted the market we would be back to 2001-02 prices. The housing Bears, myself included did not see that coming,as it never happened before. Of course they can come up with more tricks, but I really don’t know what else or how much more they can do.
The question than becomes if they continue to manipualte and distort the market, does one even want one any more? Unless it’s free.
@181 -
“People who carry legally are generally less likely to be confrontational or be involved in a confrontation.”
Nice argument there. You might try qualifying your statement since it makes absolutely no sense. E.g.:
People who carry legally are generally less likely to be confrontational or be involved in a confrontation (than those who illegally carry firearms)? (Gee, really???!!!)
or
People who carry legally are generally less likely to be confrontational or be involved in a confrontation (than those who aren’t carrying at all)? (I doubt it.)
I get your schtick where you try coming off as an authority on everything, but it’s really not working for you.
Just got back from serving the town with our 2010 tax appeal. You should have seen the looks I got from the staff in the Clerk’s and Tax Assessor’s office when I had the temerity to ask them to sign that they had received the papers.
Would it be terribly uncharitable to say that I would not feel bad one bit if they all lost their jobs?
Clot-Schump-Doom[138];
You know, its the brief, fleeting moments of lucidity (e.g., [41] Homeownership is the same thing. Much of the repetition of the tired old housing bromides is the unconscious fear of an older generation (that desperately needs to cash out of housing) that the younger generation will not buy into the myth.) that make me not completely write you off and possibly believe that you’ve taken a dose of your meds. Then you go back into Willowbrook mode with sh!t like this.
I don’t know why you insist on clinging to (and proving) the worst stereotypes about your chosen line of work. Plus it must be very easy for you to make hollow internet threats to someone who won’t stoop to retaliate at your level. Like I said yesterday, you paint yourself sitting in a bathtub, and wearing a tin foil hat to boot.
#165 Al
Wow you need help. I think I have unmasked your true identity. Are you Col Frank Fitts, USMC?
We can safely conclude “no debate from you”, just cut and paste, duck and dive .
@189
“But responsible people do not brandish guns in restaurants, church, school, etc.”
Exactly my point. You want to own one or more at home, I don’t really care. If you gun nuts make my everyday life into a Wild West 2.0, I’ll escalate so fast your heads will spin.
12. Doom,
Did you know in New Jersey its perfectly legal to carry a long gun in public. While you are not violating any firearm laws, you can be found guilty of various other crimes. NJ sucks when it comes to GC.
#107
Hyde– how does inflation play into this?
“experimental device that turns the body’s largest organ into a touch screen”
Ahh, I can see it now:
“Scuse me your honor. I wasn’t intentionally exposing myself, I was just trying to program my iPod.”
Skep
brandishing a weapon has a pretty specific meaning.
Simply walking into starbucks with a holstered weapon is NOT brandishing. They are not threatening anyone in that situation.
Nom already listed perfectly valid scenarios. Also consider that such actions are peoples rights where this has been occuring
[198] meter
“If you gun nuts make my everyday life into a Wild West 2.0, I’ll escalate so fast your heads will spin.”
With what? The anthrax?
Meter
you make this too easy.
Anthrax is purely an offensive and indiscriminate WMD. A firearm is none of the above.
Try again bozo
My largest organ in in my pants and believe me it has always been a “touch zone”
Shore Guy says:
March 5, 2010 at 1:41 pm
ASCAP is full of weird news today including this:
“What if your skin could serve as an interactive surface? Researchers at Carnegie Mellon University and Microsoft have produced Skinput, an experimental device that turns the body’s largest organ into a touch screen.”
grim, 201 in mod. Thought I had cleaned it up.
NJ Transit Plans 25% Fare Increase Amid Deficit (Update1) Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A
By Terrence Dopp
March 5 (Bloomberg) — New Jersey Transit proposed raising fares by 25 percent system-wide and reducing service to help close a $300 million budget deficit.
The changes would take effect May 1 and raise $140 million in revenue, NJ Transit said in a statement today. James Weinstein, executive director of the third-largest U.S. transit system, has said the agency also will cut jobs and trim salaries to cope with declining ridership and less aid.
Governor Chris Christie, a Republican who took office Jan. 19, said last month he was cutting NJ Transit’s $296 million annual subsidy by 11 percent, or $33 million, to help close a $2.2 billion deficit in the state budget for the current fiscal year, which ends June 30.
Based on the $331 monthly train fare for a commuter from Princeton Junction to New York Penn Station, a 25 percent increase would mean an additional $82.75. Riders taking the bus from Jersey City to the Port Authority Bus Terminal in Manhattan would pay another $27.25 monthly above the current $109.
189.
“But responsible people do not brandish guns in restaurants, church, school, etc.”
When the public has been trained to fear the 2nd amendment it the responsibility of the people to undo that indoctrination.
Open carry is a demonstration of that.
Its a psychological method called flooding.
Meter
the second meaning.
Don’t believe me, go look up the FBI uniform crime report.
The only thing I am an authority on is how to clean a highschool cafeteria, I haven’t claimed otherwise.
How about you back up some of your rhetoric before you make yourself look like a bigger ass then you already are.
#184 hughesrep
I picked up this a few weeks back. It is fantastic
http://www.thewhiskyexchange.com/P-2906.aspx
Buy a home vs. renting. Funny it is similar to season tickets in sports. For instance I had access to my brother in laws Jets tickets or I could get them on stubhub. However, taking a client or friend to a game and having them sit in your one time stubhub seats is the cheaper and more rational thing to do. But when it is your seat and as an owner the guard does not check your tickets and people say hello to you who sit next to you it makes it special It is a 100% irrational thing. Last year 40 yard line seats so close I could tell which cheerleaders had the french wax my friends really enjoyed going, but taking to a stub hub seat is not the same. I know rationally it is stupid, but no different than a girl on a date in a brand new car, first thing they ask is do you lease or own? When you say lease you get that look like someone just smelled sour milk.
re #195 – Moose give it up already, you have a better chance of convincing Rachel Maddow that a p*e*n*is is not a weapon.
194.
Gator,
Welcome to the light side and the forces of freedom. Hope you win.
#169
“Overall i agree that home prices ’should’ correct more, obviously, but we all need to challenge eachother more on our analysis because the whole real estate discussion just becomes a watered down contest of whoever is more negative wins.
And the worst-case scenario has about the same chance of occuring as the best case scenario.”
Indeed.
There is a lot of rear view mirror perspective here these days. The crash happened. We are in a new environment with new rules. Need to make judgments based on the status quo.
[204] john
“My largest organ in in my pants”
Based on your posts, we believe you.
Life imitates Jets PSLs…yadda, yadda, yadda.
Is it me or is the trading volume on the markets today really, really light. I bearly see the numbers change.
Anyone got an answer. Thanks in advance.
sean (211)-
Thanks, but you’re addressing a tiresome and churlish little cretin.
Perhaps it’s better to allow him a few crumbs of whatever pathetic self-satisfaction he can wring out of his goober-level, trolling posts here than for me to continually enjoin him.
Perhaps he will challenge someone in a Starbucks to a duel one day and cosmic justice can be served.
With a shot of almond syrup.
hype (216)-
It’s not the stock market anymore. It’s a gaming platform.
OK, you are sitting in a Starbucks with you wife, girlfriend, children, mother, etc in some safe, well to do area like most of us probably live in and some guys strolls in with a handgun in a holster, plainly visible.
This is obviously not normal behavior. Where is the threat this person feels he needs to protect himself from? Even if he is within his “rights,” why does he think it is necessary to assert his right so flamboyantly?
There are a lot of things that one is technically able to do as a legal matter which are simply irresponsible. This is one of them.
And the idea that it is actually safer for everyone if one cowboy in the the starbucks with a gun is way too simplistic. It is premised on the idea that he is the only person with a gun and that he is a responsible carrier.
The latter assumption is dubious because responsible people don’t prepare for violence in this degree when the liklihood of it is close to zero. The former assumption goes out the window if the world exists as the most out-there gun advocates wish it did, because then EVERYBODY is carrying.
[189] skep
“I am talking about weirdos who feel the need to brandish weapons in coffee shops.”
“Brandish” has a particular legal connotation. I think that Ket is right, a holstered firearm is not brandished.
Further, brandishing is an element in certain crimes, but is not itself a crime that I am aware of.
Further, you again appear to conflate carry with mental illness. But, giving you the benefit of the doubt, I will try to pin you down on that: Is the exercise of legal open carry that is not in furtherance of some lawful purpose other than generalized self defense evidence of mental illness? Please answer yes or no.
Is Harry Reid really this friggen stupid? If so, how can the Democrats put him in charge of the Senate?
http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/mar/05/harry-reid-lambasted-saying-steady-jobless-rate-re/
[222] Skep
Okay, lets try this again:
“Even if he is within his “rights,” why does he think it is necessary to assert his right so flamboyantly?”
Answer: Because in many of these open carry states, it must be openly displayed. To conceal it is a felony.
“There are a lot of things that one is technically able to do as a legal matter which are simply irresponsible. This is one of them.”
Please expand on this, as I fail to see the objective irresponsibility.
“This is obviously not normal behavior.”
Skep,
Neither is standing on a soapbox on a corner spouting off one’s views that this, that, or the other action of government is wrong, but it is a constitutionally protected activity.
219.
As soon as my son (4) can handle a firearm he will. Of course that will come after my lecture on the Constitution.
Stop living in fear man.
And you people wonder why I call Americans a bunch of eyebrow shaving, Dorito eating pussies. The women in this country have far more balls than the men. Its pathetic and it has to stop. This country is destined for some serious sh#t coming up. If you dont rise to the occasion your kids and grand kids will live as slaves.
Nom– I am not going to convince you if you think openly displaying weapons in completely non-hostile environments is OK. In my experience, people who are responsible gun owners do not feel it is necessary to advertise and are certainly opposed to any hint of introducing firearms to non-hostile situations.
[220] skep
“The latter assumption is dubious because responsible people don’t prepare for violence in this degree when the liklihood of it is close to zero.”
I am old enough to remember when they interred some folks in Texas, and in California after some very high profile events, who were similarly responsible and felt as you did. I tried to give you information about them but I keep getting moderated.
BTW, it was one of those events that led to the concealed carry law in Texas. The other led to the Brady Bill.
And the problem with percentages like that is that they always have a way of biting you in the behind. Close to zero isn’t zero.
Refine your argument please; I am finding these softballs too tempting to resist and I have to get some work done.
[228] skep
“In my experience, people who are responsible gun owners do not feel it is necessary to advertise and are certainly opposed to any hint of introducing firearms to non-hostile situations.
Sigh. Okay, the next time I am in a non-hostile situation (which is 99.9999999 percent of the time) and something happens where it is going to become hostile, I’ll ask the perp if he can wait while I go home and get my heater.
As Trevor Howard said to Frank Sinatra in “Von Ryan’s Express”, “the average nazi will grow impatient while he waits for you to choke him like that.”
Again, the guy who wants to be strapped everywhere he goes either has a very specific reason to be afraid (in which case, being near him is dangerous) or he is just waiting for his chance to play cowboy (in which case, he has in my opinion a dangerous outlook on life). I do not see any reason to carry a gun around in public unless either of the above in some fashion applies. And the argument that I need to do it to uphold the right is BS because SCOTUS has said that you have a personal right to a gun, so it is settled.
#213There is a lot of rear view mirror perspective here these days.
Funny I don’t see that at all.
Skep,
And since you are so discomfited by open display, does that mean that I can count on your support for a meaningful concealed carry law?
BTW, your concern makes no sense here in NJ. There is no right to open carry, and if there was, you’d have to fight the VoPos to enforce it.
Now, I really do have work to do so peace out.
228.
Skep,
I take it you’re a family guy trying to protect his family from a perceived threat. Go down to you local range and see the folks who frequent there. There is no place I feel safer.
I guess I’m not clear on who will be checking who is carrying “legally.” Will there be a guard at every door checking permits, etc? I think its a real concern.
The Fed Can Control Long-Term Interest Rates
The Washington Post had another piece pushing deficit scare stories. This time it tells readers that Greece’s problems could spillover to the U.S. According to the piece, fears of a Greek default could lead investors to become more worried about a U.S. default, pushing up interest rates on U.S. government bonds.
There are two logical problems with the assertions in the piece. If investors flee U.S. bonds because they fear default, where are they going to put their money? If the U.S. actually did default, then almost any other asset will also take a huge hit. For example, holding U.S. stock or bonds would be really really stupid if you thought that the U.S. government was going to default on its debt.
This would in turn imply a general flight from dollar denominated assets, which in turn would lead to a plunge in the value of the dollar. A plunging dollar would in turn lead to soaring exports and a would cause the economy to boom rather than crash, as the article claims.
The other logical problem is that, contrary to the assertion of the article, the Fed actually can control long-term interest rates. It can in principle buy as many Treasury bonds as it wants. Ordinarily it would be reluctant to buy a huge amount of long-term bonds because of fears of inflation, however in the context of a sharp downturn and high unemployment, inflation is not a serious concern.
–Dean Baker
David Brooks Is Worried About the Invasion of Martians
Okay, he said “runaway federal spending,” but as long as you’re making stuff up, you might as well make it invading Martians. It’s no less true and a hell of a lot more exciting.
As those of us here on planet earth know, there is no credible story of runaway federal spending. The budget deficit exploded because of the recession, which in turn was caused by the collapse of an $8 trillion housing bubble. But, Brooks needed copy for his NYT column, so runaway federal spending it is. I still think he should have talked about invading Martians.
–Dean Baker
Trouble with most gun owners in my town is they are to a large part white trash.
Even more amazing the women they are married to seem normal. Girl in my daughters class around 7 has a nice professional looking mom, well spoken and friendly, never see husband even though he works 4pm to midnight in some factory job monday through friday.
So anyhow wife goes to set up playdate with my daughter and another girl in the class and since she never met the husband she ask’s will he be home. She says yes he will be, my wife goes it is good to have help. She goes he won’t be helping me as he is planning on cleaning his gun collection. My wife goes really, where will he be doing this? She says he likes to spread his guns all over kitchen table and clean them. My wife had the play date at our house. What guy in his right mind is cleaning a gun collection with three seven year old girls in room and his three year old son. Anyhow next time she says she will have playdate when husband is not home and guns are locked up. Well anyhow wife drops off and check out house, the nut has dad animals all over house that he shot and the 7 year old daughter is telling stories about how he cut off the deer’s heads.
We don’t allow him by law to carry his guns outside the house. I doubt he is defending his blue collar white trash house and ten year old chevy from intruders. Given he is like a 6 foot two inch 220 pound unshaven 40 year man who looks very scary I doubt any crook would even remotely consider robbing him. Wife is nice, I think she is a nut for letting him do this but at least she understands that most people would not want there kids in a house with multiple guns floating around.
That Open Carry law really saves you. Have we forgotten the PA Soccer Mom
http://www.wkyc.com/print.aspx?storyid=123186
I’m cool with guns at the range, hunting, defending your house, concealed weapons if you have a legit reason (e.g., you are a prosecutor), but once everyone starts carrying guns in holsters everywhere we go we are in trouble tarantino style.
#223 Shore
I love how selectivly the consitution is used. Those who shout so loudly for the 2nd amendment were very very quiet when the 4th amendment was dismantled.
237.
Once it goes down it wont matter if its legal.
You will be 1 of 2 things.
The predator or the prey.
Skep, I’m with ya buddy.
Do whatever you want in the confines of your own home as long as you aren’t hurting anyone. I really couldn’t care less.
Bring that cr@p into public and you’re just looking for trouble. Simple as that.
Otherwise any situation escalates, or at the very least has a much greater potential for escalation.
The rest of the civilized world seems to ‘get’ this. It’s only these limp-wristed internet cowboy wannabees that have a need to prove their manhood by extension.
I’ve actually had the barrel of a gun pointed at my temple and shortly thereafter chased the m’fer down the street until the cops caught him. Were I packing, the outcome would have been much worse for one or both of us so I know from where I speak. The rest of you are just posturing and would probably pee yourselves in that situation.
“A plunging dollar would in turn lead to soaring exports and a would cause the economy to boom rather than crash.”
This rediculous but interesting statment from dean baker would be my post of the day if John didnt just call gun owners white trash.
238.
The assault on the 4th amendment began with the war on drugs. Again, its always fear with the result being an erosion of liberties.
Who makes money off the drug trade anyway? Crack dealers in Harlem? If I were in that business I would want to control both the supply, interdiction of supply, and consumption.
#241 What exactly would be exporting that woudl casue the economy to boom?? So little is produced here.
243.
Food. Oops I forgot. They cut the water off to the farmers. Schucks, I guess we will catch the next boat.
125: Don’t be so sure. It may have been w/ “non-traditional” lending, but it sure did happen over the last decade.
“but I doubt they were buying homes in upper saddle river”
#245 Oh yes it did. It happend everywhere. Lots of that in USR, by the way Saddle River is the more expensive/exclusive town, don’t let the upper in USR fool you.
“So little is produced here.”
3b – Yep but thats the point i guess.
And the reason so much is now produced in china – and other countries with artificially low currencies.
And im not standing by his statement but i think its hillarious that he is basically turning a possible currency collapse into the opportunity of a lifetime.
246: Dated a girl from Saddle River. Lots of dough. Have relatives who grew up in USR. Very blue collar family.
244-
Al, im sorry. I dont think i am understanding your post correctly.
Are you suggesting that the un has recently cut off our food supply?
You know I am not even cool with that depending on lot size. Apartment buildings, attached town homes and densely poplulated Levitown areas with 40×100 lots when you consider a bullet can travel up to one mile waiving your loaded handgun around in a atached home with families with kids on both is trouble waiting to happen.
meter says:
March 5, 2010 at 3:44 pm
Skep, I’m with ya buddy.
Do whatever you want in the confines of your own home as long as you aren’t hurting anyone. I really couldn’t care less.
#248 Check out the BC Sheriff web site lots of foreclosures in both SR, and USR.
skep (219)-
Where I’m from down South, this doesn’t even get a raised eyebrow.
“OK, you are sitting in a Starbucks with you wife, girlfriend, children, mother, etc in some safe, well to do area like most of us probably live in and some guys strolls in with a handgun in a holster, plainly visible.
This is obviously not normal behavior.”
“Some guys strolls in with a handgun in a holster, plainly visible.
This is obviously not normal behavior.”
Skeptic, have you been to penn station or an airport lately?
There are masked soldiers walking around all over the place, wearing full body armor and holding machine guns with mini granade launchers attached to them.
#233, #234: I think we can now write off Dean Baker as a complete assclown.
[244] meter
“Bring that cr@p into public and you’re just looking for trouble. Simple as that.
well then, can I assume you will support my idea for what I call the “parens patriae” law?
It works like this: We, as individual citizens, give up our right to defend ourselves with deadly force. You, as the government, agree to provide sufficient security to offset our inability to protect ourselves. Further, you must indemnify our losses from violent crime perpetrated directly (no indemnity if your house gets robbed while you aren’t home). You also pay for our injuries, and in the event that a citizen is killed as a result of violent crime, the government is strictly liable and must pay out compensatory damages for wrongful death (and punitive damages if the government failed to provide reasonable security).
To permit the government to effectively protect itself from risk, the laws governing search and seizure will be amended to permit stop and frisks for virtually any reason. After all, gotta give the gov. a fighting chance here.
If there is a cop on every corner, and we can aggressively search for and seize guns, and our right to protection is assured, or at least we have a right to be made whole in exchange for our ability to defend ourselves, then there is no need for guns.
How about it? You on board? I feel safer already.
The interesting thing about the gun carrying arguement is that the criminal element is not subject to the Rule of Law, and carries guns around all the time. Laws can only prevent non criminals from carrying guns, as criminals do not adhere to Laws. Come to think of it given the number of Illegal Aliens & Drugs in this Country, this government doesn’t ahere to the Rule of Law all the time either.
“I think we can now write off Dean Baker as a complete assclown.”
Did Dean Baker just try to liken a currency collapse to hitting the mega million jackpot?
By that measure he can also reason that gold prices would shoot through the roof and since we have the largest gold reserves the us would strengthen considerably if only our currency would collapse.
confused (256)-
Exactly. When guns are outlawed, only outlaws will have guns.
Screw registration. Screw these non-conceal laws. When TSHTF, I’m packing. Concealed. All the time.
Preadator or prey; your choice.
[242] meter
“The rest of you are just posturing and would probably pee yourselves in that situation.”
How stupid were you to get yourself into that situation in the first place?
And as for posturing . . .
veto (257)-
He probably thinks doing huge amounts of meth makes you invincible, too.
Layoffs at my firm, circa now.
Green Shoots, Harry Reid, etc etc
These NJ transit cuts in service and increased fares are draconian.
They represent the classic Republican mode of “cutting” taxes, which translates into shifting the burden onto the poor and middle class.
Great, Christie didn’t “raise taxes,” he just wacked every commuter in the State with a 30% fare increase.
This is penalizing the people who use the cleanest, lowest impact modes of transportation. Instead of dicouraging driving, which has huge externalities like air pollution associated with it, he discourages mass transit. Horrible, god awful public policy.
Get used to 4 more years of Christie tax cuts just like this! He is finishing the job that his buddy George Bush started, namely, putting the final nail in the coffin on the middle class.
plume (259)-
Too bad meter doesn’t know that the dumbest thing you can do is try to run after an armed assailant.
A friend of mine actually did this the Summer before we were set to go off to college. The assailant had snatched his GF’s purse.
After less than a block of giving chase, the robber turned and shot him in the head.
No big. Meter’s post is probably 100% troll, anyway.
plg (262)-
Why don’t you get yourself a rickshaw and give everyone rides for free?
I hope Christie shuts down NJT, lock-stock-barrel.
“The current global banking system is almost a pure ponzi scheme. It should be burned alive”
and end of the tax free drug trade?
no way. you don’t your wee 401K to go bust now…
do you?
SAS
I think you guys read guns and ammo too much. Honestly, in the yuppie towns where most here live your greatest danger is the trader whose wife called him a p*ssy that morning getting hammered and shooting up the whole foods. Anybody who is rolling around town without his collar popped gets pulled over by the cops and searched within 5 minutes. Maybe if you are hanging out in Camden everyday I could see the rationale for carrying, but where we all live this is fantasy-world stuff.
plg (262)-
Lighten up, pal. Your hero, Harry Reid, says UE’s looking “pretty good”.
In VA next weekend for soccer.
Note to self: hit some gun shows.
Boken,
Sorry to hear it. Hope you are among the survivors.
At my firm, went to a meeting today, and the managing partner gave what had to be the most downbeat speech he ever gave. He was trying to be upbeat, but the very clear message was that, if things continued as they were, layoffs were going to happen. Given the feud I am in with a nutjob partner here, I expect I won’t be here much longer.
But I did speak to a client today (who was miffed about our bills), and she openly said that if I were no longer here, and if I hung out a shingle, we should talk. Said she recognized quality when she saw it. That made me feel good.
Think I will also bone up on consumer bankruptcy. I think that this will be a booming business.
My own shingle. Maybe it’s time.
“but where we all live this is fantasy-world stuff.”
you must be in bed by 6 o’clock.
SAS
“I love how selectivly the consitution is used. Those who shout so loudly for the 2nd amendment were very very quiet when the 4th amendment was dismantled”
I assume this is not directed at me as my disdain for infringement of liberty is well documented.
I would rather have more liberty and less intrusibe efforts at providing safety than the other way around. Free people will always find a way to protect themselves.
I see a guy with a gun in Starbucks I assume he is in law enforcement. Plus he is a target. Anybody lookig for trouble will shoot him first.
John, I’ve never been asked if I buy or lease. And how big is your ass if its the largest organ in your body?
skep,
you assume that we are all carrying for fear of the yuppies. Not so.
This is NJ where I can’t anyway. But when I lived in NH, I had a permit but still never carried. Why? No foreseeable, reasonable risk, so it is more hassle than it is worth.
But when I lived in Philly, I did carry from time to time. And guess what? There were times when I was glad I did. Was I in a meter situation? No, but the idea is to avoid them, isn’t it?
My point is that I want the right to do so. Reason I got permits when they were allowed to me was the same reason I have higher coverages on my auto insurance—better to have it and not need it than the inverse.
And as for rights being settled by SCOTUS, were that it was thus. It isn’t settled. It never is. Trust me on that.
[d2b]
I think John meant that his c0ck was the largest organ.
What does that say about his brain?
Or are they one and the same?
We are now being asked to read our firm’s news media policies and sign that we have read them.
This is a very media-savvy firm.
So this cannot be good.
“Or are they one and the same?”
nom, it is prob wired and sewn to his forehead.
Speaking of Whole Foods, there was a woman today in the WF in Madison buying shrimp. She pointed to the shrimp that was $16.99 a pound and told the fish monger she wanted the biggest ones. The guy told her they were all the same size. She insisted the ones in front were bigger. He told here they were still frozen and were coated in ice. She didn’t believe him until he started picking the ice off of them.
The shrimp are sold by weight, not piece. Shrimp are also categorized by size (like 13 to 15 in a pound or 21 to 23) so the largest shrimp might be 5 grams larger than the smallest one in the batch, which is probably undetectable to the eye after cooking.
How can someone who is able to live in the Madison area and do all their grocery shopping at WF be so dumb?
Note: I was just passing through after visiting ex co workers, and I can’t afford to do all my shopping at WF.
#278 Maybe you shoulda just shot her. KIDDING, just kidding!! I’m neutral on guns, don’t own one but don’t mind others who do. Meh. I’d rather have a few good guys armed to sorta balance out the bad guys though.
plume (270)-
I can toss you some RE closings. You just have to let me write the HUD-1s. :)
#279 Outofstater,
Tempting. :P
I used to do walk by fartings on people like that, but I’ve change my diet and lost that ability.
Open carry to walk-by gassings. The weapons talk today has run the gamut.
Paul Krugman eviscerated:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703915204575103720332317434.html
[280] clot
Thanks. will take you up on that if I find myself on the street. Besides, you have the software so it only makes sense that you prepare HUD-1s.
I recall that the only NJ closing I was active in was my own. But my atty was so sloppy and inattentive, we wound up doing most of the work it seemed, rewriting the docs and telling him what he had to pay attention to.
His bill was being paid by relo, otherwise I would have fired him.
The surge shows lenders are still paying the price for lax standards three years after mortgage markets collapsed under record defaults. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are looking for more faulty loans to return after suffering $202 billion of losses since 2007, and banks may have to go along, since the two U.S.- owned firms now buy at least 70 percent of new mortgages.
“If you want to originate mortgages and keep that pipeline running, you have to deal with the push-backs,” said Paul Miller, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets in Arlington, Virginia, and former examiner for the Federal Reserve. “It doesn’t matter how much you hate Fannie and Freddie.”
Freddie Mac forced lenders to buy back $4.1 billion of mortgages last year, almost triple the amount in 2008, according to a Feb. 26 filing. As of Dec. 31, Freddie Mac had another $4 billion outstanding loan-purchase demands that lenders hadn’t met, according to the filing. Fannie Mae didn’t disclose the amount of its loan-repurchase demands. Both firms were seized by the government in 2008 to stave off their collapse
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ad._QCyroAdI&pos=5
Safe-
Lady is an idiot. Clerk should have left the ice on and when weighed she would have paid for ice.
We had a mini round of layoffs as well today. Companies are running out of people to let go.
#282 Doom,
I have a gassive-agressive personality. :)
Fun times (Not). My old firm is letting people go one drip, drop at a time. Terrible for morale. And yet the economy is supposedly getting out of the recession? I see no evidence of that.
253. Thats a problem
Regarding food supply. Its what this country needs to export cant grow crops without water.
This whole country is f#cked up with these G D#m Communists. I personally cant wait for the day when we will get our revenge.
263.Get used to 4 more years of Christie tax cuts just like this! He is finishing the job that his buddy George Bush started, namely, putting the final nail in the coffin on the middle class.
The final nail in the NJ coffin is run away Public Sector Salary, Pension & Benefits. Nothing else is of any consequence. The State is Bankrupt and it’s only salvation is to roll back the Public give aways.
290.
Amen. I wont be happy until I see the starving public sector douche bags on the soup line. Then we can manipulate them into doing the civil unrest which will turn public opinion against them. Once that is achieved the private sector can line up as reinforcements behind the police and national guard to truelly rid ourselves of these parasites.
Been a shooter and hunter for years. I don’t carry.
The ones who carry concealed (w/permit) are much more likely to know what the hell they are doing than those who carry open & unloaded.
Once you strap it on, your packing a lot of power and in most cases, those who do don’t realize the magnitude.
Except for a few parts of the country, open & unloaded is someone trying to get a non-surgical extension.
So when your at Starbucks, Target, the diner, etc and your openly carrying and something happens, your going to have to make a very quick decision and if you don’t have extensive training, your taking a very big risk and you have to ask yourself one simple question, do I feel lucky -and you damn well better be cause if you F up, your gonna have a big problem.
36,000 more jobs lost and this is positive? And then they got the balls to say we’d have plus numbers if it wasn’t for the snow storms?
290 & 291,
To quote LongShanks in the movie Braveheart: “Send the infantry, full attack.”
Krugman is evidence that even a complete jackass can win a Nobel.
Get up earlier, Germans tell Greeks
After yesterday’s call by two German politicians that Greece sell off islands, historic buildings and artworks before receiving aid, the German tabloid Bild has written an open letter to the Greek prime minister George Papandreou:
Dear prime minister,
In Germany, people work until they are 67 and there is no 14th-month salary for civil servants. Here, nobody needs to pay a €1,000 bribe to get a hospital bed in time.
Our petrol stations have cash registers, taxi drivers give receipts and farmers don’t swindle EU subsidies with millions of non-existent olive trees.
Germany also has high debts but we can settle them. That’s because we get up early and work all day.
We want to be friends with the Greeks. That’s why since joining the euro, Germany has given your country €50bn.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/mar/05/bild-open-letter-greece-papandreou
USG debt to increase by 10 trillion over the next decade.
http://money.cnn.com/2010/03/05/news/economy/cbo_obama_budget/index.htm
I personally don’t see what the big deal is. Sovereign debt is like a mtg, you know it’s never going to get paid off. Besides, the government is just tapping the equity we’ve built up in the US over the last few hundred years so we can all benefit. Kind of like a heloc on a cape in Bergen county. /off sarcasm
Contrast Elizabeth Warren and Dick Armey’s analysis of the economic meltdown. The Fed was too generous to the population…..vs…..we were screwed….
Safe
so we have about 13 trillion in debt that is currently recognized not including entitlement programs. Another 6 trillion in GSE debt that we have but refuse to recognize. And another 10 trillion over the next decade.
What’s 25-30 trillion in debt amongst friends?
I don’t see the problem. Entitlement program liabilities only add another 20 trillion or so to that.
Let’s see, that’s 12+6+10+20= 46 trillion
No problem. We can cover that ny selling a few states
Beer and math don’t play nice…
It’s 48 trillion
Don’t forget the $50T in 50 State Entitlement Liabilities for their Public Employees. Social Security/Medicare Liabilities are chunk change, compared to the States Cadillac Pension/Healthcare Unfunded Liabilities.
300.No problem. We can cover that ny selling a few states
We have already sold key buildings and infrastructure in many states.
“Krugman is evidence that even a complete jackass can win a Nobel”
Let us not forget B.O.’s Nobel. The prize has largely been debased. It is a shame for future winners.
Shore (303)-
We should never forget that shame was the principal driver behind Nobel’s founding of the award.
GS close to financing the bid to buy Man U away from the Glazers.
60 other investors are lined up to pay the Glazers over 1.2 mm GBP to go away.
qwerty[283]
Comparing the European structural unemployment with what we have here and now , as the WSJ blogger does, is pretty ridiculous. When you’ve got 6 unemployed for every 1 open position, forcing people off UI will simply lead to more employable of them grabbing the low-quality jobs as no other jobs are available (e.g., I think all the security guards we’ve got at work are now college-educated…). As a result, they will get less pay when their old line of works becomes available – and the number of the unemployed stays the same since the “low-quality” folks who would have gotten those low-quality jobs, continue on UI instead, or move to welfare.
Not very effective spin cobbler.
Taranto at the WSJ left Krugman a burning cinder:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703915204575103720332317434.html
Confused 301
I forgot about the iabilities. 100 trillion……
And people still think we come out of this without war or default
Ket (308) – One Hundred Trillion…Suddenly the word unstable becomes so clearly defined and applicable to this once great republic. Clot is quite right, it seems that time is the only barrier to the unraveling.
The choosen one wins a prize for peace and yet he is arrogant, ambiguous, condescending, pithy and angry.
Gary
O’s peace prize was not significantly different from the plastic trophy every child who plays t-ball gets for just showing up
Wag
embrace the oblivion
Wag
our GDP is 14 trillion, I don’t see the problem with a 100 trillion in debt/liabilities
You guys are too worries.
Yesterday my fortune cookie told me “I’d have a comfortable old age”. So I’m not worried about retirement now. Of course the 25 to 30 years till then might not be so peachy.
Just squeeze the trigger and lie back…
“The National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) and FDIC parasites siphon off deposit insurance money from good institutions not willing to take risks, to support institutions taking excessive risks.
In turn, banks and credit unions sitting with high levels of cash lose money on deposits and the customers make zero percent interest, thanks to the Bernanke Fed holding interest rates at zero.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/03/credit-union-pays-savers-to-close-their.html
Nevada Federal Credit Union is fed up with paying money to the National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund (NCUSIF) for sitting in cash, so it is paying depositors to withdraw that cash.
Is this a perverted system or what?”
Nj Transit
So they are cutting few empty trains and buses. Are you kidding me??? so the union workers will be working 3 hours a day vs. the 5 now. Where’s the recession??? Let the real cuts began.
NJ transit is decreasing executive pay by 5 percent. Are you kidding me?? Fen joke.
An Aussie bank mailed 42,000 customers other people’s banking statements. Ha ha.
Over here the bank’s just lose tapes with 2 million social security numbers. So much better.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/thousands-receive-bank-statements-of-strangers-20100306-ppne.html
#319
banks
Lousy typos.
What I ‘like’ about the unravel is how it tests people’s mettle. I have no real concern about myself and the wife, but I like to see the smug and complacent put into stress mode. It is in that mode that you see what people are really made up.
And I am kind of starting to see the humor in Fwank’s posts….what recession at many levels. If you have a job do you really give a crap about the 20M who do not? Where were they every time I was laid off in the tech crash?
The other interesting note is that the lower classes and lower skilled workers are getting decimated this time around. They gotta really be disappointed with the chosen one. I am not really disappointed as I (1) had no expectations from Washington and (2) had a great year!
Confused
where do you get 50 trillion for state liabilities???
I can find several different sources stating a total of about 5-6 trillion, but not 50.
Running the numbers
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35726793/ns/business-your_retirement/?gt1=43001
Lets ask ourselves an interesting question.
Regardless of whether our total liabilities as a nation are 50 trillion or 100 trillion, at what point do we accept that even attempting to pay off such a economic burden is essentially national suicide.
At some point we need to re-asses and realize that our productive actions are being funneled into nonproductive debts that have been foolishly made by a continuous stream or short sighted politicians and backed by an equally short sighted populous
At what point do we wake up as a nation and state our Mea Culpa. That we as a nation and a people have been greedy and blind for the last several generations. We along with our children and grandchildren will pay the price for this hubris, of that there is no question. The question at hand is do we pay the price while continuing as debt slaves to one another as well as the rest of the world, or do we refuse to be bound as such and live within our means while defaulting on an unresolvable debt.
Defaulting is no easy path. The consequences will be wide spread and harsh, but in the end preferable and a better outcome then encumbering the next 5 generations with the obligation to pay debts that were insane to promise in the first place. Do we want to be known by history as the selfish ones who demanded that impossible promises be made and as a result doom future generations to scraping by? Or do we want to acknowledge that we have both made and agreed to impossible financial obligations as both individuals and as a nation.
To have any hope of walking out of this with out the chains of debt servitude, we would have to acknowledge that both our foreign and domestic debts are unpayable. That means that we lose access to a large % of global markets. it means that the numerous government safety net programs must cease to exist or be drastically restricted.
We can either use out productive activities to feed a blackhole of our own creation or we can accept the price of our hubris and use our productive activity to begin rebuilding as a nation and as individuals.
These questions will not be asked until there are riots and banks holidays. But perhaps at that point the question may be asked by a large enough portion of the population. If we fail to address these questions, then we are deciding by default to plod along as debt slaves and almost certainly ensuring the same for our children’s children.
remember when I asked John what his over/under was for good girls vs. bad?
here’s the other side of the equation:
what’s the over/under for the number of women in a lifetime?
most of you guys are in your 30′s and 40′s
what about someone who’s 60 and lived through the 60′s and 70′s?
to a guy, what’s “a lot” of notches on the belt?
Correction
The federal debt/unfunded liabilities are at 100 TRILLION
http://www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2008/fs080528.cfm
And the total state (all 50 states combined) unfunded liabilities are at 6 trillion.
Global GDP is about 50 trillion. It would take 2 years of the entire worlds economic output to cover the US debt/liabilities….
We know from centuries of evidence in countless economies, from ancient Rome to today’s Zimbabwe, that running the printing press to pay off today’s bills leads to much worse problems later on. The inflation that results from the flood of money into the economy turns out to be far worse than the fiscal pain those countries hoped to avoid….
The way we resolve these liabilities—and resolve them we must—will affect our own well-being as well as the prospects of future generations and the global economy. Failing to face up to our responsibility will produce the mother of all financial storms. The warning signals have been flashing for years, but we find it easier to ignore them than to take action. Will we take the painful fiscal steps necessary to prevent the storm by reducing and eventually eliminating our fiscal imbalances? That depends on you.
I mean “you” literally. This situation is of your own creation. When you berate your representatives or senators or presidents for the mess we are in, you are really berating yourself. You elect them. You are the ones who let them get away with burdening your children and grandchildren rather than yourselves with the bill for your entitlement programs. ……
Note that those quotes and that speech come from the president of the Dallas Federal Reserve.
Richard W. Fisher is president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
The US fiscal stimulus: Less than what you might think
Joshua Aizenman, Gurnain Kaur Pasricha, 3 March 2010
The crisis led to significant fiscal stimulus efforts by the US government to offset the downturn. But this column argues that, properly adjusted for the declining fiscal expenditure of the fifty states, the aggregate stimulus was close to zero in 2009. While a net decline was avoided, the stimulus did not raise aggregate expenditure above its predicted mean. This can explain the anaemic reaction of the US economy to the alleged “big federal fiscal stimulus”.
http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/4707
Yome
Lets see, if we include the recent trillion $ bailouts and GSE debt, The total US liabilities are in excess of 100 trillion, probably close to 110 Trillion.
Oh, but the federal government did not spend enough money… That is an interesting stance. I suppose we owe so much at this point we might as well borrow until our dumbass creditors cut us off.
Mr Hyde says:
March 5, 2010 at 11:49 am
You are correct that around 2014 or so when even joe sixpack is bemoaning the worthlessness of housing that they will then be the mouth pieces. That is also when the smart money quietly starts to jump back in
you think the smart money will jump back into housing in 2014, or the market in 2014?
because i think we’re seeing some “smart money” back in the market already
would tax rates go up in a thermonuclear war?
in said scenario, what would that do to the price of doughnuts?
I need to ask the over/under question again during the week when John is around :)
#325 Sooo, would we default on everything? What would be the practical effect of that on the individual? All Treasuries are worth zero, all US savings bonds that Grandma gave you are zero, all US debt is now cancelled, null and void? All money market funds invested in Treasuries are worth zero? That would be one he!! of a mess.
Yikes,
The money jumping now is going to be mostly wiped out. A few might get luckly, but most will be carried out on their shield if they are touching housing as an investment.
meter says:
March 5, 2010 at 1:26 pm
Since some of you ‘tards think that walking around with loaded firearms is safe and should be acceptable to those of us with functional brains and an evolved sense of public order, I think I should be entitled to waltz around you with a vial of anthrax.
does not compute
meter is our new hyperbole king.
334 stater
we would default on the majority of it and salvage some of the domestic debt. It would have to be carefully structured, a task that is beyond my capabilities.
SS, Medicaide/care, social programs would have to mostly go away. W ewould have to defult on the majority of treasuries or massivly devalue them without an associate inflationary burst.
In a simplified sense we would have to revalue the dollar in a manner to devalue the majority of debt. One way of doing so is to repudiate or massively devalue federal reserve notes held by foreigners and then issue treasury notes as the currency of the land. Unless we want to repeat this we would also need to disband the FED
qwerty [308]
Taranto’s attack is highly partisan and illogical, using stretched arguments from a totally different situation. EU countries 20-40 years ago had high (>5%) structural unemployment and high demand for workers at the same time, were paying the unemployed for years and at the same time importing millions of Turks and Moroccans (legally!) as guest workers, paying them essentially going (not slave!) wages. We currently had minimal vacancies, 6 unemployed for 1 open position, and even illegals (slave labor) are going back to Mexico. It is ridiculous to object to UI extension today and here based on any grounds other than Randian.
#337 Tricky problem. I wonder if it would be better to do it incrementally instead of overnight when everyone would wake up to a greatly suckified new world. So, what hints will we get that this is about to occur? Means testing SS, cuts to doctors for Medicare which will make them quit the system, which will mean no care for Medicare patients, but hey, that’s not the gov’t's fault – it’s the greedy docs. Oh brother, I need a drink and it isn’t even noon yet.
Gary,
Your post at 310 is so typical. Personal insults that have no basis.
You watch too much fox news, it is seriously warping your ability to think for yourself.
#
Final Doom says:
March 5, 2010 at 1:50 pm
When Detroit resembles Mogadishu, what does the percentage drop- beginning-to-end- in housing really mean?
you mean it doesn’t already?
Yikes 341,
Nope, no random RPG fire yet.
Buy a home now, before prices go up, way up.
Prices of luxury real estate are finally starting to rise, as bargain hunters swoop in. Some of the best deals are in second homes with pricesoff as much as 40%.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB126783139173756813.html?mod=BOL_hpp_highlight
meter says:
March 5, 2010 at 2:10 pm
You feel entitled to live in a world where you can carry a firearm in public to ‘protect yourself.’ I’ll carry a bioweapon or hand grenade as my choice of deterrent. Don’t like it? Don’t eff with me. Or move.
do you have the cognitive ability to discern between a firearm and a grenade/’bioweapon?’
Qwerty,
Your post at 283 takes a WSJ editorial that is misleading and blindly follows it like its truth.
First, the quote from the textbook on unemployment says assistance to the unemployed CAN lead to greater unemployment. Using Europe as an example. It does not say it WILL lead to unemployment.
Second, the quote is also taken from a textbook without any further context. Krugman’s argument was that in an economic crisis, deflationary environment and with drastically high unemployment assistance to the unemployed is the most effective form of stimulus because it all gets spent! The textbook is not addressing an economic crisis, it is saying as a matter of course unemployment assistance MAY cause more unemployed if it discourages workers to find work. However, in an economic crisis where there are 6 people for every job opening, people are not choosing to stay out of work. THERE IS NO WORK!
Use your brain buddy. Stop taking what Fox News and the WSJ tell you and start thinking for yourself.
after reading some of the crazy stuff earlier in this thread, i think it is safe to say i come here strictly for the comedy now.
you guys are a riot.
let me know when the Princeton GTG is (hopefully not during march madness)
Would be much more effective to just ban the stupid from being in the open.
345 plg: yep, we don’t dare question Enron Advisor Krugman.
#
#
Mr Hyde says:
March 6, 2010 at 11:17 am
Yikes,
The money jumping now is going to be mostly wiped out. A few might get luckly, but most will be carried out on their shield if they are touching housing as an investment.
The govt has made it clear who they will and won’t let fail. Will the same happen in the coming months/years? Ask John about getting lucky (financially, of course)
Yikes
I agree the government can go to great lengths to choose the winners but no government in history had pulled it off. Every one that has tried to control the business cycle has self destructed.
Our 100 trillion “issue” may have already assured the end game.
Yikes
let me add that 2014 is an estimate as I make no claims at being able to call a date for all of this. It could take another decade to play out
324.Mr Hyde says:
March 6, 2010 at 9:29 am
Confused
where do you get 50 trillion for state liabilities???
I can find several different sources stating a total of about 5-6 trillion, but not 50.
I ignored the current sources because until 2004 their was no requirement for states to even acknowledge unfunded liabilities. So, I looked at things like Social Security & Medicare and their unfunded liabilities. They pay out chunk change versus what Public Sector Pensions & Health care Pay. So extrapolating on that, I came up with $50T. Probably closer to the truth, then $6-7T. Regardless of the final number, it’s not sustainable and the rubber will finally hit the road.
324.Mr Hyde says:
March 6, 2010 at 9:29 am
Confused
where do you get 50 trillion for state liabilities???
I can find several different sources stating a total of about 5-6 trillion, but not 50.
I ignored the current sources because until 2004 their was no requirement for states to even acknowledge unfunded liabilities. So, I looked at things like Social Security & Medicare and their unfunded liabilities. They pay out chunk change versus what Public Sector Pensions & Health care Pay. So extrapolating on that, I came up with $50T. Probably closer to the truth, then $6-7T. Regardless of the final number, it’s not sustainable and the rubber will finally hit the road.
jamil[348]:
If you suspect he was advising Enron on how to commit fraud, you should have shared your suspicions with FBI; under GWB administration the case would have been actively pursued. I am sure that if you’d had an opportunity in say 1998 to become Enron’s advisor, you would’ve jumped on it.
Mr Hyde, confused:
The straightest trick is to turn as much debt as possible, preferably >90% of it, to longer maturities (30 years will be the best), and then monetize it; problem solved – as long as the govt and almost all other debt in the U.S. is $$-denominated. I am surprised and disappointed that UST and the Fed are not moving in this direction (UST should issue much more 30 yr bonds, Fed should buy them rather than 3-mos).
cobbler is Eraserhead. Or, Bergabe
I sincerely hope cobbler is at the top of the bond vigilantes’ hit list.
Go ahead, cobbler. Load up on 30′s if you think that’s the play.
Back to Goldman Sachs United v. Wolves.
[358] cobbler
“If you suspect he was advising Enron on how to commit fraud, you should have shared your suspicions with FBI; under GWB administration the case would have been actively pursued.”
I always found it astonishing that among the many things that the dems and media were able to pin on the Velcro President, Enron was one of them.
In fact, Enron started and grew its questionable businesses under Clinton; was able to bone California from behind because of Gray Davis; and was prosecuted by the Bush Justice Department (and after Ken Lay famously called his buddy W to bail him out, and Bush, just as famously, said no).
As a result of Enron, the Bush Admin. also proposed, and got, pension reform which, had it not been passed, would have left pensions in a much bigger mess than they are today (which is a scary thought). Yet many people, either out of convenience or ignorance, blame Bush for Enron.
Cobbler
monitization is probably the worst long term outcome. That road ends in Zimbabwe. It also eats up productive resources for decades. All this assumes you have stopped accumulating new debt. We are far from it.
Massive monitization is already underway. Look into who is really buying treasuries
yikes,
“after reading some of the crazy stuff earlier in this thread, i think it is safe to say i come here strictly for the comedy now.”
My favorite in the non sequitur department is meter’s saber-rattling in which he implies he will go postal on anyone he sees openly carrying.
Which logically completes the loop: When meter is around, there is a sufficiently credible threat to justify carrying.
Also, I don’t recall who, suggested that the folks that are carrying openly and unloaded are looking for trouble. I gotta agree, though not for the reason they think: Bringing an unloaded gun to a gunfight is even stupider than bringing a knife.
[340] plg
Speaking of thinking . . . I suggest you pick up the remote, turn off MSNBC, and slowly step away from the television.
Gary made an observation about the personal characteristics of Dear Leader, which happen to be accurate.
Now, let me ratchet it up a bit: Even the Nobel Committee acknowledged that he was not selected on the basis of what he had done, but what he promised to do.
Which, btw, he has backtracked on at very turn: Guantanamo, Iraq, KSM trial, PATRIOT Act, . . .
The other stated basis of the Committee was that he gave people hope. I have no idea what that has to do with world peace, and even if it is relevant, I still see that in very short supply.
Now, I would like your opinion: Given that Dear Leader has essentially reversed himself on nearly every position that formed the basis for his Nobel, and has not, IMHO, given the world much hope, should he have to give the Nobel back?
[2336] yikes
“does not compute”
Yeah, I also liked how Meter conflates carrying around anthrax in order to massively retaliate for a perceived breach of the peace to fully functioning brains and an evolved sense of civilization.
Yep, clearly demonstrates my complete and utter lack of erudition.
Peterson-Pew Commission Uses Jingoism to Advance Budget Agenda
By Dean Baker – January 4, 2010, 1:21PM
We need to cut the budget deficit because the foreigners are taking over. That is the word according to a new report, “Red Ink Rising,” from a commission financed by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation and the Pew Foundation. The commission warns us that foreigners now hold almost 50 percent of the national debt. This is one of the main points of its stern warning that we must get the deficit under control.
Before anyone gets too concerned about the foreign menace, it is important to consider the source of this report. The Peter G. Peterson Foundation was founded by Peter G. Peterson, the billionaire Wall Street tycoon and former Nixon commerce secretary. Peterson has a long history of funding efforts to cut Social Security and Medicare. Before his latest foundation venture, he started the Concord Coalition and wrote books with menacing titles like “Gray Dawn,” that foretold of the demographic disaster that would be created by the retirement of the baby boom cohort.
The Pew Foundation, its partner in this exercise, is perhaps best known for its efforts to hype scary stories about Social Security in the mid-90s. Back then, it spent tens of millions of dollars on “Americans Discuss Social Security,” an effort to promote the view that the Social Security system was in imminent financial danger and demanded the country’s immediate attention.
The economic crisis caused by the collapse of the housing bubble has temporarily pushed the deficit to unsustainable levels. This deficit is primarily due to the lost tax revenue and unemployment benefits that are associated with double-digit unemployment in addition to the bailout bucks for the failed banks.
Of course, we would not be in this situation if anyone had listened to warnings about the dangers of the housing bubble before it was too late. Unfortunately, the Peterson-Pew types were using their money and influence to drown out these warnings – hyping instead their concerns about deficits. Thanks to their incompetence as economic analysts, we now have much greater deficit concerns today than we did when they made these warnings a few years ago.
However, the devastation caused by the collapse of the housing bubble weakens rather than strengthens the case for their agenda. For example, the idea of cutting Social Security for any current or near retirees becomes absurd in a context in which tens of millions of middle-class families have just seen much of their wealth destroyed with the collapse of housing values and the plunge in the stock market. The same applies to cuts in Medicare.
But the Peterson-Pew crew does not feel the need to stick to reality in pushing its agenda; hence the focus on the foreign ownership of the government debt. This is obviously intended to scare people with the prospect that evil foreigners will control our destiny.
However, if we can get the distinguished members of this commission to look at an intro econ book, they will discover that the acquisition of US assets (like government bonds or stocks) by foreigners is determined by the trade deficit, not the budget deficit. In other words, the reason that foreigners are buying up hundreds of billions of dollars of US financial assets (public or private) is because we have a huge trade deficit, not a budget deficit. (Arguably, the causation goes in the other direction, but the accounting identity is between the trade deficit and foreign purchases of US assets.)
The trade deficit is in turn determined by the value of the dollar. People in the United States buy imported goods at Wal-Mart because the high dollar makes them cheap, not because of the budget deficit. Remarkably, the Peterson-Pew gang doesn’t mention either the value of dollar or the trade deficit even once in its report.
Its agenda is going after the budget deficit, including Social Security and Medicare, not seriously addressing the problem of foreign indebtedness. If it requires being a little disingenuous to do so, these folks will rise to the challenge.
The other notable place where this group plays fast and loose with the facts is warning that future generations could experience lower standards of living because of the government debt. There are no plausible projections that show future generations experiencing worse standards of living on average than we do at present due to the debt.
Many families may see declines in living standards due to a continuing rise in inequality. However, inequality is not mentioned in the Peterson-Pew report. It is possible that the environmental damage from global warming could also reduce future living standards, but the environment is also not mentioned in this report. When you’ve got a line to push, why let the facts get in the way?
So, the question confronting the American people is whether we are going to allow the Wall Street crew that wrecked the economy to come back and take away our Social Security and Medicare. If the answer is yes, sign up for the deficit commission being pushed in Congress by the Peterson-Pew crew. On the other hand, if you don’t think Wall Street should get every last penny, you might want to let the Congressional proponents of this commission know how you feel.
Default the only real way out? How Gen X of you.
Once we have the budget under control and no longer have to borrow from overseas, and if we can use alt energy and not need to import energy from outside North America (BIG WHEN’S and IFs, I know), might it not be in our interest to get foreigners to buy the rest of our debt? If they own all of it, they have a vested interest in preventing a US default.
Stupid new NJ law- as of May 1, drivers under the age of 21 must display a decal on their car window. I really would like to know what the fine is if you fail to display this. You can’t make this stuff up.
Shore (366),
Maybe that’s some of the thinking now. As long as we’re stuck in this quagmire, we might as well take full advantage and p*ss off some creditors (e.g. recent talks with the Dalai Lama).
Apologies if this has already been posted…
In a switch, Christie may end property-tax rebates
RENTON – Gov. Christie is considering scaling back or eliminating property-tax rebates in his budget proposal, a move that could yield significant savings but would mean going back on a campaign pledge.
As Christie tries to close a projected $11 billion deficit next fiscal year, scenarios under discussion include slashing the popular but expensive rebates, according to two administration officials with knowledge of budget talks.
They stressed that no final decisions had been made. Christie is scheduled to unveil his budget March 16.
At a cost last year of $1.1 billion, rebates form one of the largest pools of money in the budget. Lawmakers in both parties have said privately for weeks they expect cuts to the program.
Rebates are one of the most tangible ways state government tries to offset New Jersey’s high local property taxes, which average nearly $7,300. The program is so large and costly, though, that it is a prime target for governors seeking spending cuts.
“You can’t bring the budget into balance without looking at it,” said an administration source who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Last year, the program was scheduled to send 510,000 homeowners younger than 65 checks averaging $900 or $670, depending on income. For 500,000 senior-citizen homeowners, the rebates were larger, averaging $760 or $1,300.
The rebates have proven to be political flash points in recent years with resistance to cuts from lawmakers of both parties.
But some critics, mostly outside government, have derided the program as a gimmick that uses sales and income-tax revenue to send out politically popular checks under the heading of property tax relief.
Former Gov. Richard J. Codey proposed suspending the program for everyone but senior citizens in 2005 and settled for a scaled-back version. Former Gov. Jon S. Corzine reduced rebates in three of his four budgets.
Last year he, too, proposed ending the rebates for everyone except senior citizens, until a tax amnesty program provided a last-minute boost.
When Corzine first proposed the deepest of his cuts, candidate Christie called the reduction “a declaration of war on the middle class.”
On the campaign trail, Christie promised to restore rebates: “The last thing Chris will do is to follow Corzine’s lead in eliminating property tax rebates for 1.2 million New Jerseyans,” his campaign Web site read. In the final days of the race, though, he conceded that full restoration might not be possible this year.
Christie has few easy choices for cuts, given the state’s dire finances. He has targeted other major line items, saying he does not expect to pay the state’s $3 billion pension obligation and warning mayors and school boards to expect reductions in state aid. But even those savings will leave a multibillion-dollar gap.
Pollster Patrick Murray said Christie might be politically safe if he can maintain rebates at last year’s level.
“He can say, ‘I can’t raise them this year, but at least I preserved them,’ ” said Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “If he cuts them, there could be some problems.”
High property taxes, Murray said, are the number-one issue in the state.
Previous governors who have cut the program have carved out exceptions. Senior citizens and the disabled, for example, have usually been spared. Under Corzine, tax filers with incomes of $50,000 or less saw no cuts last year.
One lawmaker last year called for trimming the benefits for wealthy senior citizens as well, to provide more money for other programs or for lower-income homeowners, though those plans did not advance.
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/front_page/20100305_In_a_switch__Christie_may_end_property-tax_rebates.html
Shore
perhaps, but do you believe any of your perquisites will actually happen?
Gator,
I hope the get rid of it and people in NJ smarten up and realize it was a manipulative “gimme.” People who get excited over prop tax rebates reminds me of people who think they “got some money” when they get their fed tax refund.
Essex
default is actually the hard way our. The easy wa, in the short term, is monitization. In the long run default us better for the nation. It’s not about pride or emotions. It’s business. It’s about long term stability ofnationd
Shore, Essex
Perhaps i am dead wrong. But how do we deal with 50 trillion in unfunded federal liabilities ( medicare/aid) and another 10+ trillion in unfunded state pension liabilities. How do we fund basic government activities when the interest rates go up and interest payments consume virtually all tax receipts.
“O’s peace prize was not significantly different from the plastic trophy every child who plays t-ball gets for just showing up”
Priceless.
And now for a comedy break:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTxkxG3DF4k&feature=related
Enjoy!
sl
Is “down South” below 78 or 287?
252.Final Doom says:
March 5, 2010 at 4:13 pm
skep (219)-
Where I’m from down South, this doesn’t even get a raised eyebrow.
“OK, you are sitting in a Starbucks with you wife, girlfriend, children, mother, etc in some safe, well to do area like most of us probably live in and some guys strolls in with a handgun in a holster, plainly visible.
This is obviously not normal behavior.”
If you are going to complain about the governor, at least live in the state, or at a minimum, one that is proximate to NJ.
262.plg says:
March 5, 2010 at 4:29 pm
These NJ transit cuts in service and increased fares are draconian.
They represent the classic Republican mode of “cutting” taxes, which translates into shifting the burden onto the poor and middle class.
Great, Christie didn’t “raise taxes,” he just wacked every commuter in the State with a 30% fare increase.
This is penalizing the people who use the cleanest, lowest impact modes of transportation. Instead of dicouraging driving, which has huge externalities like air pollution associated with it, he discourages mass transit. Horrible, god awful public policy.
Get used to 4 more years of Christie tax cuts just like this! He is finishing the job that his buddy George Bush started, namely, putting the final nail in the coffin on the middle class.
Hey, I found a video of a NJREREPORT debate
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpL6R0TZbcM
373. I got nuthin.
Our evil plan of exporting the american Fat Culture seems to be coming along nicely!!!
BEIJING (Reuters) – China must urgently address the physical fitness of the nation’s youth or run the risk of raising a generation incapable of fighting the Japanese in a future war, the head of the country’s top sports university said Thursday.
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/100304/odds/odd_us_china_fitness
Prestigous Bergen County, home of Madison, Conner, Graydon and Ellery falling way down on the list. What is there, like, a herpes epidemic in Old Tappan or something?
Rank County Median Hsehold Income
1 Douglas County, Colorado $82,929
2 Fairfax County, Virginia $81,050
3 Loudoun County, Virginia $80,648
4 Hunterdon County, New Jersey $79,888
5 Los Alamos County, New Mexico $78,993
6 Morris County, New Jersey $77,340
7 Somerset County, New Jersey $76,933
8 City of Falls Church, Virginia $74,924
9 Santa Clara County, California $74,335
10 Howard County, Maryland $74,167
11 Putnam County, New York $72,279
12 Nassau County, New York $72,030
13 Montgomery County, Maryland $71,551
14 Marin County, California $71,306
15 Fayette County, Georgia $71,227
16 Hamilton County, Indiana $71,026
17 Collin County, Texas $70,835
18 San Mateo County, California $70,819
19 Johnson County, Kansas $69,817
20 Williamson County, Tennessee $69,104
21 Forsyth County, Georgia $68,890
22 Rockland County, New York $67,971
23 DuPage County, Illinois $67,887
24 City of Fairfax, Virginia $67,642
25 Livingston County, Michigan $67,400
26 Delaware County, Ohio $67,258
27 Lake County, Illinois $66,973
28 Stafford County, Virginia $66,809
29 Scott County, Minnesota $66,612
30 Washington County, Minnesota $66,305
31 Prince William Cty, Virginia $65,960
32 Calvert County, Maryland $65,945
33 Carver County, Minnesota $65,540
34 Chester County, Pennsylvania $65,295
35 Suffolk County, New York $65,288
36 Sussex County, New Jersey $65,266
37 Fairfield County, Connecticut $65,249
38 Bergen County, New Jersey $65,241
39 Rockwall County, Texas $65,164
40 Summit County, Utah $64,962
41 McHenry County, Illinois $64,826
42 Kendall County, Illinois $64,625
43 Monmouth County, New Jersey $64,231
44 City & Cty of Brmfld, Colrdo $63,903
45 Fort Bend County, Texas $63,831
46 Contra Costa Cty, California $63,675
47 Westchester County, New York $63,582
48 Norfolk County, Massachusetts $63,432
49 Oldham County, Kentucky $63,229
50 North Slope Borough, Alaska $63,173
51 Arlington County, Virginia $63,001
52 Waukesha County, Wisconsin $62,839
53 Ozaukee County, Wisconsin $62,745
54 Eagle County, Colorado $62,682
55 Elbert County, Colorado $62,480
56 Will County, Illinois $62,238
57 Charles County, Maryland $62,199
58 City & Bor. of Juneau, Alsk $62,034
59 Fauquier County, Virginia $61,999
60 Oakland County, Michigan $61,907
61 Dakota County, Minnesota $61,863
62 Anne Arundel County, Maryland $61,768
63 Middlesex County, New Jersey $61,446
64 Aleutians West Area, Alaska $61,406
65 City of Poquoson, Virginia $60,920
66 Cherokee County, Georgia $60,896
67 Montgomery County, Penn. $60,829
68 Middlesex County, Mass. $60,821
69 City of Manassas Park, VA. $60,794
70 Williamson County, Texas $60,642
71 Gwinnett County, Georgia $60,537
72 City of Manassas, Virginia $60,409
73 Frederick County, Maryland $60,276
74 Geauga County, Ohio $60,200
75 Carroll County, Maryland $60,021
76 Bucks County, Pennsylvania $59,727
77 Ventura County, California $59,666
78 Pitkin County, Colorado $59,375
79 Kane County, Illinois $59,351
80 Hanover County, Virginia $59,223
81 Middlesex County, Connecticut $59,175
82 Tolland County, Connecticut $59,044
83 Orange County, California $58,820
84 Burlington County, New Jersey $58,608
85 Chesterfield County, Virginia $58,537
86 Cobb County, Georgia $58,289
87 Denton County, Texas $58,216
88 Rockingham County, New Hamp. $58,150
89 York County, Virginia $57,956
90 Warren County, Ohio $57,952
91 Anoka County, Minnesota $57,754
92 Placer County, California $57,535
93 Spotsylvania County, Virginia $57,525
94 San Benito County, California $57,469
95 Jefferson County, Colorado $57,339
96 Henry County, Georgia $57,309
97 St. Charles County, Missouri $57,258
98 Harford County, Maryland $57,234
99 Queen Anne’s County, Maryland $57,037
100 Washington County, Wisconsin $57,033
#310
Even if O was that, I would take that over GWB who was imbecilic, stubborn, idiotic, dumb, lazy, had daddy issues and God as his Co-Pilot.
Short and sweet, he was a fcukin embarrassment.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knhErtMjC8k
nom [359]
I have no doubt that Enron committed fraud, and Ken Lay, etc. had been properly prosecuted; the post was not about this. My comment was the fact that Krugman had been Enron advisor does not in any way mean that he was involved in this fraud – otherwise he’d be indicted or at least cited in FBI’s complaints. Taranto’s attack(in WSJ blog), which jamil cheered, is purely partisan and lacks substance – essentially, character assassination. I am sure that most anyone on this blog (certainly, jamil) would have agreed in 1998 to become Enron’s advisor if offered…
#358 Clot
The Ginger Pig does it again.
kettle [360]
Monetization leads to Zimbabwe only if you want to go to Zimbabwe. In the U.S., it would serve as a way to force the overvalued USD to where it should be if we want to regain competitiveness – and also get rid of the debt overhang. Default solves nothing – you still need to support elderly and sick…
Clot – I didn’t suggest you or me buying 30yr; I’d avoid this. I suggested Fed buys them…
I know I’m late to the thread, but can get some insights from you fine people?
I’ve been looking at listings from Montclair and Glen Ridge for over a year now, and I’ve visited some homes and been to some open houses. My impression is that in the 250 to 400 grand range, when it comes to the niceness of the home, the property taxes and the school quality, Glen Ridge crushes Montclair. I can’t figure out why. I would think the difference in school quality alone would make GR’s low end more like Ridgewood or Chatam’s low end. If I’m looking to afford something in the 300 to 350 range, GR beats Montclair hands down.
Am I right about this? And why would this be? I gotta be missing something.
I guess another way to phrase this question would be: does Glen Ridge suck in some way that I’m unaware of and is Montclair wonderful in some way that I’m unaware of?
#359 Nom
You wearing the rose colored sunglasses today.
The Cause of the problem was all Califonia and it was a bipartsan move to deregulate the electrical industry.
For regulation of Enron and why was it allowed to get away with the accounting practices, put that in the bucket with morrgage securitization andSIVS.
As for reform coming out if Enron and the like was down to Sarbanes Oxley.
“what’s the over/under for the number of women in a lifetime?”
My friend had over 100 notches by the time he got married (30 yrs old). i thought that was a lot. And pretty filthy too because my guess is that half of them were completely hideous.
But then again he was a hard core frat guy, so that could be par for the course.
#361 Nom
There was a little bit of that from you a while back with your showing gunmetal on the mean streets of Philly posts.
Just sayin
Hyde, if you are going to count all inderect and off b/s debt you mine as well include an additional $90 Trillion of bank debt and derivates since tbtf makes a govt back stop necessary.
#362 Nom
I would back off from the MSNBC taunts, it debases your arguement.
I would say the KSM in NY was political showboating that blew up in their face. On the res I would say, that O came in to try and redress some of the biggest mistakes of the GWB tenure (is that Habeus Corpus I see in the corner. But when the rubber met the road, they realized that underneath the covers it was a lot worse.
I think Christie is in the same boat. He made a lot of campaign promises that he may have to back up on. I think there will be a sh1tstorm of lawsuits coming that will at least stall his reforms while they work throughthe court system. The likes of the NJEA will throw up stalling lawsuits like a strategic defaulter avoiding the Sheriff Sale and forclosure.
Cobbler
apparently you didn’t read my entire post
a quote from the Dallas federal resrve bank CEO
…We know from centuries of evidence in countless economies, from ancient Rome to today’s Zimbabwe, that running the printing press to pay off today’s bills leads to much worse problems later on. The inflation that results from the flood of money into the economy turns out to be far worse than the fiscal pain those countries hoped to avoid….
No nation has ever successfully pulled off what you ate suggesting
Veto
the bank bailouts and social program liabilities are fundamentally different. One is a promised ecpendature made in “good faith” while the other is an expense that exists only because of impropriaty and corruption in our political system.
Besides the #’s are already so large that it’s irrelevant.
#367 House Whine
Europe has had it for years you displayed the deacal for 1 year after your test. The penalty for non display was a revoke of your license. It is very effective.
“i come here strictly for the comedy now.”
aye
#369 NJGator
Great artice. I thinkl this will e the start of the reversals.
I personally would wip the rebates off the board. Seniors already get relief throu the tax freeze program.
My impression is that in the 250 to 400 grand range, when it comes to the niceness of the home, the property taxes and the school quality, Glen Ridge crushes Montclair. I can’t figure out why. … Am I right about this? And why would this be? I gotta be missing something.
That price range puts you on the south side, far south.
Look a bit further south and you’ll realize what you are missing.
395- I still don’t get it! Effective for what purpose?? I really do not like the idea of any person being “marked” or “designated”. I consider young people under the age of 21 to have rights too. Are they going to have seniors who can barely drive have decals too? No, I doubt it.
I wonder how much my child will have to pay for the decal that I don’t even want him to have.
“the bank bailouts and social program liabilities are fundamentally different.”
Kettle, if you are going to dump everything under the sun under the responsibility of the govt, then you need to include all bank debt too. that is the whole premise of tbtf.
While you are at it you should include all personal debts and mortgages because the govt has shown that it will not tolerate defaults of any kind and will back stop everything.
If you really want to get even more rediculous, you should add up all the global govt and bank debts in the whole world and add them in as well since the us govt might need to back stop all of it to ensure contagion doesnt bring the whole strain of dominos down.
hyde (393)-
Not only is cobbler an utter ignoramus, he won’t even put his money where his mouth is.
Just another troll.
Veto
you make it sound like I am making this up to inflate numbers.
The government has not made any promise to pay for personal debts or bank debts.
Add the numbers up however you like. The question at the heart of the manner is that it’s not possible to pay for any of it.
How do you consider star and federal pensions or Medicare when that is paid for out of tax revenue and interest payments alone on existing debt will consume a large % of those reciepts the first time interest rates move up.
Do you believe we can ignore the 100 trillion in unfunded liabilities? If so how.
“you make it sound like I am making this up to inflate numbers.”
Ket, if you are goal is to exaderate the doom, dont be a half @ss.
Veto
I am not exagerating anything and that is not my goal. I am trying to understand where you are comng from. You seem to be trying to belittle the situation as though the number is a joke.
Is that the case? Do you feel that the “official” 10 trillion figure is an accurate description of our situation?
“You seem to be trying to belittle the situation as though the number is a joke.”
Kettle, no but the way you are sensationalizing it to equal definite collapse is a joke. Isn’t it?
Taking the govt debt and then adding in the states, GSE’s, off balance sheet debt, entitlement programs, leases and other financial commitments is a fair excersize.
I know this process very well. Part of my job is finding off balance sheet debt and converting it into direct debt to be included in different types of solvency ratios.
And if you did that for all countries, you would realize that 5,000% of GDP debt is prob the norm so by comparison the us is batting a little above avg.
And if you are going to do it then you should add it ALL in. Banks and personal debt as well. Also, include the cost of food as debt because according to the final outcome that you are backing into, the govt will need to feed everyone after the economy has collapsed.
Veto,
Thank you. I see what you are saying. This is apparently more your field. So my question stands. How should one interprate the numbers.
Ignore state liabilities for the moment and only consider the official US debt and outstanding unfunded liabilities ( SS< Medicare/aid). Do you see some way of it ever actually being paid short of a significant inflationary event?
From a philosophical point, does it even make sense to attempt to do so given the amount of production ( in terms of GDP) would go into any such attempt when it could be used for rebuilding a productive economy as opposed to a consumptive economy.
And yes those numbers on their face seem to essentially guarantee a nasty outcome.
“Do you feel that the “official” 10 trillion figure is an accurate description of our situation?”
Kettle, what is considered debt or not for any orginization is subject to discretion and interpretation of the analyst and circumstance and conditions of the commitment. Even the major rating agencies disagree on what should be counted or not. That is one reason why they can give ratings that are 2-3 notches apart on the same entity even though they are analyzing the same set of financials.
Our principal problem is not federal or state debt, it is private debt which is 3x greater. It is unmanageable in its current form. Ideally, you’d want to flick a magic wand, and all wages and prices are e.g. doubled, while all debts stay the same. Monetization is one way of going there; the other one is trying for 10 or 20 years to squeeze the drop of inflation blood out of a rock of the globalized and deflation-bound economy (by the way, do you realize that the slide of the RE values we are chronicling here is deflationary?). The third is getting ourselves out of WTO and building a wall of tariffs (which I support, but will never happen).
And btw pi$$ing off clot works like a charm…
“Do you see some way of it ever actually being paid short of a significant inflationary event?”
Oh yeah, definately. especially IF the stars would begin to align – even a little bit to start. We have had bigger debts before and so have other countries.
Dont get me wrong, I’m no blind optimist. We have a lot of debt. It obviously needs to be addressed. But i think to assume a collapse/default is guaranteed is a huge stretch.
Longer term you are prob right to be worried but more so in a gradual way because of the erosion of our competitive edge, the reduction of our baby boomer workforce, the necessary adjustment in living standard and the fact that we will have to compete on a level playing field with the 3rd world.
We have an extremely high living standard and that is a good place to start because it means we have alot to cut before we become destitude.
Im sure this situation will become way worse before it gets better but my bet is that its the type of thing that plays out over a decade or so, not two weeks like argentina.
Cobbler,
Im my professional janitorial opinion we are experiencing both inflation and deflation at the same time.
That debate has raged here many a time and i am not going down that road again
Veto,
I wasnt suggesting it plays out in 2 weeks. I see something more along your time line, years.
I do not believe that the world will end tomorrow, next week,or next year.
I think we will see a long unpleasant downhill slide punctuated by a few sudden drops. I still have not seen a n argument that suggests that our obligations can actually be met.
thanks for the response though
[410]
We have an extremely high living standard and that is a good place to start because it means we have alot to cut before we become destitude.
The problem is, the still existing middle class very strongly feels (see the tea party as an illustration) that it is entitled to the “extremely high living standard”.
413. We live by the grace of that skinny piece of paper. I will say that. Once that goes. The standard of living freefalls fast.
“I still have not seen an argument that suggests that our obligations can actually be met.”
Ket your position assumes that all of our expenses are fixed and programs cant be cut to lower expenses and balance budgets. This also assumes that if the debt service grows to 50% of our budget, that we wouldn’t still pay it.
That is simply not the case.
The case for our solvency is practically a given. The case for deafult is a growing possibility but still a remote worst-case given the facts we have to work with.
Kyle Gas ‘s scene in Lower Learning….hilarious.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R3J1JzFtELo
415. Eliminate all of the dumb gov. programs that are redundant or do not work. Maybe scale back or redirect. But where will the casualties go?
“I wasnt suggesting it plays out in 2 weeks. I see something more along your time line, years.
I think we will see a long unpleasant downhill slide punctuated by a few sudden drops.”
Ket, fine. This is more of a moderated description of what i interpreted your posts to suggest.
But this description that you give and a us treas default do not match, so i will deduce that you also see a US govt debt default as a remote and unlikely possibility.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HfdwinSwRxM
The emperor still has clothes and that’s probably a good thing. I’m not sure I want to see the day when most of the population realizes that all the money is gone and we are just pretending to be solvent.
416.The case for our solvency is practically a given. The case for deafult is a growing possibility but still a remote worst-case given the facts we have to work with.
This answer may have been correct in 1985, but not now. In 1985 Private Corporations anticipated today by moving their Defined Pensions to Cash Balance Plans & Capping their Medical Costs, while Public Sector adopted your view and partied for 25 years.
“Eliminate all of the dumb gov. programs that are redundant or do not work. Maybe scale back or redirect. But where will the casualties go?”
50% unemployment and breadlines is not something a govt would purposely choose for its citizens but if we simply dont have the money or can no longer create it, then we will cut the programs and live with the miserable consequences i would guess.
The 30 yr ecomomic boom is over but that doesnt automatically equal default or collapse. It could just mean hard times for a while.
Veto,
I think the long term best outcome would be for us to initiate a “controlled” default in which we drop the FED as well. Of course i realize that will not happen voluntarily.
I see us a debt junkies who desperately need crash detoxing.
Veto,
my basic premise is that we are wasting massive amounts of productive effort in trying to maintain the illusion of the emperors clothes. It would be in all of our long term interests to stop playing the game immediately and start rebuilding a sound foundation
“This answer may have been correct in 1985, but not now.”
confused,
yes, our default risk is much higher now than 1985. Still, our default risk is low, for now.
I agree pensions and medicare and ss are looking like suspect pipe dreams. Nobody would argue that. Thats a fact when they do the calculations under current conditions, their is not enough money.
They obviously have to be looked scaled back or changed. Thats alot different than a default.
And Public sector wasnt the only sector to adopt this spendthrift mentality. It was the private and public sector that partied for 25 yrs. The debt of the S&P 500 and avg us citizen grew just as fast as govt.
“I think the long term best outcome would be for us to initiate a “controlled” default in which we drop the FED as well.”
Ket, your 424 is something i whole heartedly agree with but unfortunately we didnt get to vote on that strategy, ha.
Also, im all for shaking the fed but there would prob be risks to that as well. You know that book i recomended was pitching that like crazy and it sounds great in theory but it also pointed out the risks.
Just think, do we really want our most spendthrift politicians (o, pilosi, reed, summerz, etc) in charge of creating money? Maybe thats better than what we have now, i dont know.
Bye the way, my family just got hit with the stomach flu and are simultaneously barfing all over the place. Its like the pie eating contest scene from ‘stand by me’.
I cant imagine a us treas default would be this miserable.
“where will the casualties go?”
Essex, I’ve seen you make a case for the govt employee more than once.
Can i assume that you work in public sector? – teacher?
Im not against the govt employee, if anything im against some of the politicians, unions and administrators, etc especially the ones who became blatantly greedy but i realize that many govt employees are good at what they do and ive seen many who are more productive and efficient than their private sector counterparts.
But if this really is a long term economic shift, the public sector will have to adjust size and spending downward to follow the private sector. I know it seems like an extreme change to have so many out of work, and so many important programs cut but in an extreme case like this, there would really be no other way.
“The problem is, the still existing middle class very strongly feels (see the tea party as an illustration) that it is entitled to the “extremely high living standard”.”
Cobbler, yes i agree thats a problem. The masses are going to freak when they are evicted from their mcmansions.
But i thought the tea party was against the excessive govt spending? (Or where you just using them as an example of an activist group?)
ok im having a one way conversation now.
Was it something i said?
I’ll be more negative next time, i swear.
Technically, the only way the U.S. could default is if the Congress refuses to increase the debt ceiling. While conceivably the Treasury can avoid issuing the bonds and notes for a while, the need to refinance the T-bills will sink the boat in a very short period of time (because the rates will jump sky-high, and interest payments will skyrocket in a matter of months – thus, bigger and bigger share of the budget will go to interest, thus triggering default). That will fully collapse the corporate and private debt markets at the same time, and highly likely lead to an economic event much bigger than the Great Depression (including inabilty of the government to make transfer payments, etc.). Hopefully, enough people in Congress will be not so nutty as to make this happen – even for their own financial interest (Ron Paul is old and doesn’t care, but other people do).
337.
Hyde,
I agree and that scenario seems like the best shot.
G20 like meeting followed by a bank holiday. Lets say its announced Thurs, Fri, Sat, Sun.
Currencies are revalued against eachother.
US dollar takes a 30-50% hair cut.
2/3 of US debt is forgiven with 1/3 left to pay off.
The introduction of some form of world currency or trading unit along with severe austerity measures dictated by the IMF.
Of course there are black swans. The Iran/Israel scenario. If the US gets involved in that mess it will be the worst mistake the US ever makes. Imagine the Fed asking the people to fight a war over there with the current level of anger that the people have against their own government. Now that would be interesting. Thats why I say they are going to have to launch a false flag bigger than 9/11.
I would gladly give up my social security if it meant a total elimination of the welfare state.
339.
Medicare sucks already. You shave it some more and docs will goto a 3 day work week. The bigger problem is what it will do to hospitals. It will mean big layoffs and using the cheap sh#t.
veto [429]
Tea party is against government spending on things they (tea partiers) don’t agree with or don’t understand, not excessive spending as such: they go bonkers on suggestion of Medicare reductions, and generally support defense spending. Also, if anyone tells that something is soci@lism, they are automatically against it.
If an average living standard in the country has to drop say 30%, there are 2 ways to get there. First will allow the top 5, 10 or 15% to live more or less like today (except for having to pay for the bodyguards; however, landscapers, maids and tutors will be cheaper), and all the correction will be at the expense of the rest of the populace which has to compete with their Chinese and Indian peers. I call this a Randian model, and it brings us to more or less Columbian type of wealth distribution.
The second approach is based on tariffs (or, alternatively, high VAT with export rebates) plus more progressive taxes. This should, on one hand, restore the domestic productive industry, and on the other hand, retain or maybe even flatten a little the income distribution curve. Please note that in the latter case, drop in the living standard happens mostly because we switch to a domestic (=fairly paid for) production of stuff that is currently made in China practically for free.
Thanks for your reply Grim. I’ve actually been thru that “further south” area (never stopped and hung out, mind you). Is it appearances that make the difference? Because, other than theft, Montclair’s crimes rates are all higher. But I suppose those crime stats don’t tell the whole story. There must be places where crime is concentrated and other places that are untouched by crime within the same town. But in the data, the crime rates are given for the entire town.
380.
“Our evil plan of exporting the american Fat Culture seems to be coming along nicely!!!”
LMFAO.
Pass the Doritos and watch out for the knockneed subhuman at the buffet.
412.
“I do not believe that the world will end tomorrow, next week,or next year.
I think we will see a long unpleasant downhill slide punctuated by a few sudden drops. I still have not seen a n argument that suggests that our obligations can actually be met.”
Dont bet on it. Im more for the pull the bandaid off fast. Of course the bottom 25% wont respond kindly to severe austerity but they can only blame themselves for putting their families welfare in the governments hands.
Drop the bottom 25% and lets move on with the other 75%.
I am a jack of all trades….master of none. But am fortunate in oh so many ways. Though it sometimes feels like the clock is ticking here in ol’ NJ. And yes I have a plan B.
To the devoted Krugman defenders:
“I predict that in the years ahead Enron, not Sept. 11, will come to be seen as the greater turning point in U.S. society.” – Paul Krugman, “The Great Divide”, NY Times, January 29th, 2002
Aside from the idiocy of the above statement on its own, and unmentioned by the NY Times, Krugman was a paid adviser to Enron.
He’s nothing more than a partisan hack masquerading as an “Economist.”
Qwerty [439]
If you think Krugman advised Enron on how to commit fraud, tell so (to FBI, too). If you don’t think so, his being an advisor is irrelevant. Enron employed tens of thousands of people; if you were offered an advisor’s job with them in say 1998 you’d have taken it, no? (unless you’ve been in the middle school back then).
If someone goes on a limb and publishes an opinion article twice a week for 10 years, they are destined to say quite a few things that look quite silly 8 years later. E.g., how much ink had been spent in 2002-03 on descriptions of Iraqi WMD?
” is Montclair wonderful in some way that Im unaware of?”
Bike storage units. Just ask Gator, she can attest to the broad range of bike storage facilities in town.
Bike storage units you say?! I am so there!
Funnily enough, I’m a big time biking guy. Hate the subway. Looking forward to hating NJTransit as well.
Wow! Thank you! I always wanted to write in my site something like that. Can I take part of your post to my blog?
“Even if O was that, I would take that over GWB who was imbecilic, stubborn, idiotic, dumb, lazy, had daddy issues and God as his Co-Pilot. Short and sweet, he was a fcukin embarrassment.”
Agree.
You won the election running against the Chimp in Chief.
Now realize you can’t govern by continuing to run against the former Chimp in Chief.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123146363567166677.html
article on “atlas shrugged” by ayn rand
last 2 paragraphs are priceless
sl
whoopsie make that last 3 paragraphs
sl
Another day closer to oblivion.
Wake up, and smell the coffee. All we see is a masquerade…an illusion manipulated to keep us from noticing the degeneracy of all that surrounds us.
Your town is insolvent. Your state is insolvent. Your country is insolvent. Everything else is a pageant, staged for your deception and entertainment.
447 Good morning sunshine!
448. Amen
429 veto:
“Cobbler, yes i agree thats a problem. ..But i thought the tea party was against the excessive govt spending? (Or where you just using them as an example of an activist group?)”
Cobbler is an analyst for NYT and fact-checker for Krugman so pardon his lack of brain activity. If he were to have brains, he migth even realize that tea parties are against excessive gov spending (see the spending charts starting with the Chimp in Chief ascendency in 2009), and I doubt tea parties have much against making cuts in social services.
but seriously, since you are wise on this board, what (at least semi-realistic) actions you would recommend in order to save NJ from the fiscal disaster?
Don’t tell me. Voting for HopeyandChange over and over again?
448.Final Doom says:
March 7, 2010 at 8:04 am
Another day closer to oblivion.
Wake up, and smell the coffee. All we see is a masquerade…an illusion manipulated to keep us from noticing the degeneracy of all that surrounds us.
Your town is insolvent. Your state is insolvent. Your country is insolvent. Everything else is a pageant, staged for your deception and entertainment.
Remember when the Military wasn’t part of employment statistics? Remember when Social Security collections weren’t used in the General Fund and Social Security wasn’t double taxed. remember when we still had some manufacturing left and we didn’t have all these Fake Service Economy overhead jobs. Look at all the changes which have contributed to the smoke and mirrors of today, going back to Kennedy/Johnson and realize their are no parlor tricks left. They have played them all, and now we must Pay.
and screw the banks
and answering myself what to do with NJ:
In general, take a look at Texas and realize that is the way to run the state economy.
1: Mass-layoffs (return to the state parasite levels 10 years ago)
2: Absolute salary & benefit freeze for the next 5 years
3: Adapt compensation (downward) to be in line with private sector (including salary cuts and terminating current pensions and moving to defined-contribution program)
4: Re-negotiate existing pension liabilities (fiscal emergency, no money, they were based on corruption and they were unreasonable) ie pay only 25-50% of what promised
5: Since NJ courts (packed with hard core leftists) will reject these proposals, distantle courts by cutting their funding (judges can’t be terminated but the courts itself can be). Christie should also argue that NJ Supreme Court is illegitimate (see allowing Lauterberg to be nominated for Senate even that was illegal according to state law – so clearly, according to NJ Supreme Court, state law is just a guideline or alternatively, NJ Supreme Court is not legimitate). Either way, court orders can be ignored (and what they could do anyway, as the Governor controls National Guard and US military would refuse to attack NJ if Chimp-in-Chief orders troops to NJ).
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704541304575099430857238738.html?mod=WSJ_Real+Estate_LeftTopNews
“Homeowners Hold Ground Against Rising Property Taxes” WSJ
- online property-tax service -$49.99
444-
No fan of GWB but I have real strong negative feelings about a person that runs on change and then continues the policies that he ran against.
Obama seems to have no principles. Squandered political clout is one of a lawmaker’s biggest sins.
This economic mess became Obama’s mess the minute he hired Timmy.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703391004575106532299940608.html?mod=WSJ_newsreel_business
ABC Goes Dark for Cablevision Customers
Parts of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut…
#454 While I agree that the NJ Supreme Court has not done the state any favors (Abbott), I think that dismantling it is a line I would not want to cross. Remember, whatever can be done in the name of the cause you espouse can also be done in the name of the cause you despise. Slippery slope, unintended consequences and all that.
456: “on change and then continues the policies that he ran against.”
Only areas where the current Chimp-in-Chief has had even reasonable success, are the areas where is following GWB’s policies (Iraq, Afg, Patriot Act). Joe Biden said already that Iraq is the biggest achievement of this admin (and this bozo wanted Iraq to be divided into 3 countries and both of thenm opposed surge that made success possible).
Luckily for the country, he is just as imcompetent as conservatives said so has wasted most of the year with liberal pet projects. Had he focused on economy 100%, this country would be Zimbabwe already.
ABC goes dark? I won’t even notice.
who cares thats right, half of the channels
could go dark, nobody would care. most of the stuff is crap.
ABC and Cablevision is making it seems like people care, instead of blowing millions on commercials to defend their position they could improve their crappy service. No Oscars? Who gives a shit.
jamil jones (454)-
Might I also advocate drawing up a Proclamation of Secession, mining the Delaware River/Bay and incorporating the Confederate flag into the NJ state flag?
The only thing is, is NJ cuts itself off from the US, they might just say good riddance.
Jamil Jones…are you any relation to Jesus Jones?
stater (458)-
What is NJ about, if it’s not about unintended consequences?
I think that should be the motto on our new state flag. Should look good under the Confederate crosshatch.
No cable company better mess with my Fox Soccer Channel.
RI teacher firings
http://www.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/03/05/navarrette.teacher.firings/
Was a time the thing you worried about in Mexico was the water.
http://www.cnn.com/2010/TRAVEL/03/04/mexico.spring.break/?hpt=Sbin
The Texas Department of Public Safety took the unprecedented step Thursday of telling college students not to visit Mexican border cities during spring break because they are just too dangerous.
Several universities issued similar warnings last year, but this was the first time the Texas law enforcement agency had issued the specific advisory against travel, said spokeswoman Tela Mange. In the past, she said, Texas authorities had just urged students to be careful.
“Because of the increased violence, we decided to step it up a little bit and say, ‘Parents, bad idea,’” Mange said.
DPS Director Steven C. McCraw said, “Parents should not allow their children to visit these Mexican cities because their safety cannot be guaranteed.”
The State Department renewed a travel alert to Mexico last month, citing increased violence in the country — border areas in particular.
“Recent violent attacks have caused the U.S. Embassy to urge U.S. citizens to delay unnecessary travel to parts of Michoacan, Durango, Coahuila and Chihuahua … and to advise U.S. citizens residing or traveling in those areas to exercise extreme caution,” the alert says.
More than 16,000 people have died in Mexico since President Felipe Calderon declared war on the drug cartels shortly after assuming office in December 2006. Ciudad Juarez, in Chihuahua state across the border from El Paso, Texas, is the most violent city in the nation.
“The situation in the state of Chihuahua, specifically Ciudad Juarez, is of special concern,” the alert says.
Two U.S. citizens were abducted and killed in Chihuahua, the State Department said.
“Mexican authorities report that more than 2,600 people were killed in Ciudad Juarez in 2009,” the report states. “Additionally, this city of 1.3 million people experienced more than 16,000 car thefts and 1,900 carjackings in 2009. U.S. citizens should pay close attention to their surroundings while traveling in Ciudad Juarez, avoid isolated locations during late night and early morning hours, and remain alert to news reports.”
But the problems are not limited to Juarez, the State Department says.
“Mexican drug cartels are engaged in violent conflict — both among themselves and with Mexican security services — for control of narcotics trafficking routes along the U.S.-Mexico border,” the report says. “In order to combat violence, the government of Mexico has deployed military troops throughout the country. U.S. citizens should cooperate fully with official checkpoints when traveling on Mexican highways.
“Some recent Mexican army and police confrontations with drug cartels have resembled small-unit combat, with cartels employing automatic weapons and grenades. Large firefights have taken place in towns and cities across Mexico, but occur mostly in northern Mexico, including Ciudad Juarez, Tijuana, Chihuahua City, Nogales, Matamoros, Reynosa and Monterrey. During some of these incidents, U.S. citizens have been trapped and temporarily prevented from leaving the area.”
A number of areas along the border continue to experience a rapid growth in crime, with robberies, homicides, petty thefts and carjackings increasing during the past year nationwide, the alert says. The State Department reports notable spikes in Chihuahua, Sinaloa, and northern Baja California.
“Ciudad Juarez, Tijuana and Nogales are among the cities which have experienced public shootouts during daylight hours in shopping centers and other public venues,” the alert says.
463 doom:
So you are rejecting the idea that Texas way of running state economy is superior compared to NJ?
I would say that science is settled here despite the deniers.
jamil (470)-
WTF are you talking about? God, you really are crazy.
All of a sudden, I feel better about myself.
since some of our bloggers are talking about “packing heat”, please read this lengthy thread about a recent shooting in Philly.
White Drunk-Lax player, with a father who is a partner at Fox Rothchild and is a nephew of big time Republican operative, pursues an Asian law student after a “bumping incident” (drunk was doing pull ups on scaffolding). Drunk, with at least two other drunk friends, pursues asian for at least one block. One of the drunk posse either hits or takes a swing at Asian. Asian tries to retreat and draws handgun. The drunken lax player charges at Asian. Asian fires 6 shots. All shots hit on target. Drunk’s daddy hires PR firm and spins story that drunk was trying to save friends by charging Asian. Asian had a VA carry permit.
Asian charged with attempted homicide.
Thread is very interesting in that Self-defense Statute in PA appears similar to NJ’s statute (not identical, I briefly read the NJ statute some time ago. Did not read and compare both statutes).
Asian had at least on male friend with him and one female friend at the time.
Looks like classic self defense situtation. Hope the asian gets off.
Why mention the race of all the individuals? I enjoy the irony of the situtation. Republican victim shot and needs a PR firm. I am sure if the roles were reversed, the case would not be such a big deal and provoke such discussion.
quite frankly, video shows that the asian guy shot drunk when drunk was charging and within about 6 feet from the asian. Asian guy had remarkable restraint. The other drunk who threw the first punch retreated when the gun was drawn.
My question is when should he had fired: should he have to take a punch from the charging drunk or be permitted to fire beforehand. I am biased in that I know a single punch can do some serious damage (yes, mugged in camden, 2 broken teeth, broken jaw that had to be wired shut just before law school finals). I would think that you should be able to use deadly force before charging drunk hits you.
Obviously, when I acquire a firearm, I will take a course at “guns for hire”(thanks who ever made the referral) and I am sure I will then have an answer. Don’t feel like researching the issue right now.
OK: floor is open for discussion.
Did Jamil respond to Nom’s question?
(I have not proofread this post– -so F**K the grammar police!)
Sorry:
Here is the link:
http://forum.pafoa.org/news-123/86076-old-city-shooting.html
morp: “nephew of big time Republican operative,”
Yeah. Nephew of R big time “operative”??
Karl Rove or Dick Cheney? Oh, nephew of some never heard of local city GOP bigwig.
Finally, a proof of right-wing extremist. Maybe that nutty marxist white professor who killed the minority professors also had an uncle who voted for Palin! Time for NYT/CBS analysts to do some investigate journalism.
Jamil:
Listen shit for brains: Read the thread. Read some of the news articles. He is a player in Philly poltics. Please try to read before shooting your mouth off.
I find the irony interesting, and that is why I mentioned the races and political leanings of the actors involved. It is not proof of right wing extremism.
The question is do you think that the shooter was justified in firing. Do you think you can actually express an opinion on that? When can you actually fear for serious bodily harm and open fire?
can’t believe that I allowed Jamil to get my goat. Must be angry: wanted to ski today but have too much work and it will be too warm to bring the little guy skiing. I don’t think he will enjoy skiing in “mush”.