Happy days are here again!

From the APP Opinion Page:

Recession over? For whom?

There’s a reason why the number of economist jokes seems to rival the number of lawyer jokes. Economists are in the habit of making pronouncements that are so far removed from the real lives of real people as to be laughable.

Take the proclamation from Rutgers University researchers last week that New Jersey has emerged from the recession and will reach its pre-recession employment peak in 2016. OK, if the recession can be reduced to a series of mathematical equations and numbers can tell the tale, then the economists are right, at least in terms of the hermetically sealed bubble in which they operate.

But even there, they have to squint their eyes and toss around phrases such as “jobless recovery,” an oxymoron if ever there was one. And even if jobs are what those practitioners of the “dismal science” refer to as a “lagging indicator,” waiting until 2016 before employment levels get back to where they were hardly seems worthy of breaking out the party hats and champagne bottles.

People are still hurting, mortgages are still under water, jobs are gone that are not coming back.

Silver linings are hard to find. Yet consensus is something and the consensus among these Rutgers folks is that the worst is behind New Jersey.

It’s going to be a long, slow slog back to economic health and wealth. But the journey has to start somewhere. Maybe with a semi-rosy prediction from the number crunchers.

This entry was posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

315 Responses to Happy days are here again!

  1. grim says:

    From the NYT:

    Home Tax Credit Called Successful, but Costly

    Though the Treasury Department and the real estate industry have termed the program a success, helping 1.8 million people buy homes, many tax policy experts say it has been singularly cost-ineffective: most of the $12.6 billion in credits through end of February was collected by people who would have bought homes anyway or who in some cases were not even eligible.

    “There’s a political appeal to offering government aid to homeowners because it affects a lot of people,” said George K. Yin, former chief of staff of the Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation, who now teaches at the University of Virginia. “But if you weigh the cost and the results, you have to wonder whether it’s a failure of imagination.”

  2. Final Doom says:

    Market is toast.

  3. yikes says:

    Doom, has the arizona immigration law been talked about much?

    http://roomfordebate.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/26/will-arizonas-immigration-law-survive/

    states you couldn’t pay me to move to: Arizona, Texas, New Jersey, California, (anywhere in the South except Florida), pretty much all of the midwest … ah, heck, i guess the better list is what states i would actually live in

  4. Nomad says:

    How can these economists say the worst is behind? Unemployment is high and will remain so for a long time (what kind of jobs will be created going forward), interest rates are going to increase rapidly in the next couple of years, banks are going to have to dump their bad homes, the commercial real estate mess remains at it’s early stages and our nation is so far in debt we will never see the light of day. Pending explosion of entitlement programs and the list goes on.

    What happens to all the people who burn through their unemployment benefits and savings – soup kitchens and homeless shelters?

    At some point, the camels back has to break. Not sure if it becomes wide scale civil unrest, or we as a nation have our threashold for stress built up to tolerate a less comfortable lifestyle but to think all of the above is happening and it’s all going to be OK is naive IMHO.

  5. Final Doom says:

    yikes (3)-

    Yeah. The retard, Jamil, hijacked the last thread with that silliness.

  6. Final Doom says:

    nomad (4)-

    75% of adult Americans think a lottery ticket is an investment.

    This won’t end well.

  7. Final Doom says:

    Shrub’s book isn’t gonna be titled, “I Am the Decider”?

  8. House Whine says:

    I think the unemployment/job insecurity/wage stagnation is huge. At my local library yesterday at 2 p.m. and it was packed. Every computer terminal in use. It looked like a Saturday afternoon in the middle of the winter. Most of the patrons were definitely of working age so my assumption is that many were unemployed. In fact, I heard two job type coaches there doing some kind of counseling and the career center desk was very busy. This does not bode well and I live in an upper middle-class town.

  9. Final Doom says:

    Whine (8)-

    All the unemployed parents in our soccer club send me their resumes, unsolicited.

    The two common denominators are that those losing jobs are between 45-50 y/o, and the types of jobs they lost are never coming back.

  10. Final Doom says:

    Jean Chatzky about to come on the Today show and whore it out for RE.

  11. Mr Hyde says:

    Doom

    Arizona’s new concealed carry law makes a lot of sense when you consider their current issues, including their kidnap rate which is #2 behind mexico.

    Its makes life more interesting when the target might be packing heat

  12. JJ says:

    Ever think those people are rich.

    House Whine says:
    April 27, 2010 at 7:53 am
    I think the unemployment/job insecurity/wage stagnation is huge. At my local library yesterday at 2 p.m. and it was packed. Every computer terminal in use. It looked like a Saturday afternoon in the middle of the winter. Most of the patrons were definitely of working age so my assumption is that many were unemployed. In fact, I heard two job type coaches there doing some kind of counseling and the career center desk was very busy. This does not bode well and I live in an upper middle-class town.

  13. Shore Guy says:

    “What happens to all the people who burn through their unemployment benefits”

    With all the extensions, I wonder if we will allow anyone to exhaust their benefits. At least not while Nom still has a dollar to tax away from him. It is only fair.

  14. Shore Guy says:

    All you need to know about the Democrats in power is this:

    If one is reckless and engage in contracts with another party, say a mortgage for $3,000/month, and then one gets into financial trouble and cannot pay the debt, the government will move heaven and earth, including trying to voidthe contract, in order to keep the debtor in the home.

    If that same person doesn’t pay the taxes on that property, say $1,000/month, the government will send the sheriff to toss them into the street.

  15. House Whine says:

    12- JJ- I sure don’t understand your comment. If you are saying that they are rich and not unemployed you are very wrong, unless you are speaking tongue in cheek. Believe me, the rich people in my town don’t frequent the library to conduct career advice, nor to use the library internet!

  16. d2b says:

    Shore:
    The government cares nothing about the debtor. They are moving heaven and earth to protect the holder of the debt.

    You are wrong to believe that this is a Democratic issue.

  17. Sas3 says:

    Yikes,

    Wrong forum, starkly different demographic composition (mostly economic and may be even racial) than the one the AZ law was meant to target (poor hispanics). And I do sense some insensitivity on this blog towards potential harm such laws can do. Even minor disagreements on small matters degenerate quickly, so… I will mention only unintended practical side-effects and potential for misuse — both of them can be unmanageable.

    I can speak for my case… during my stay over close to two decades, there have been periods where the “proof” of paper work would not exist at that time (e.g. waiting while transfer of visas — the proof would arrive later). With this law, a cop could stop me in front of my house, and fk me over badly if he didn’t like my tone or if he was in a bad mood. It can only get worse, what if the cops want the “real birth certificate/real passport/real visa”?

    I think the AZ law is more advantage employers (notice how laws against employing “illegals” are non-existent or watered down or even vetoed). Now, there will be more control over the employees. A white woman transporting a mexican woman to her home for cleaning the house can claim ignorance, whereas a mexican person transporting her sick uncle to a hospital will be on the hook for “knowingly” transporting an “illegal”. Oh, if you are a slaughter house employing hundreds of “illegals”, you are probably fine, and will get a leg-up, since you have more power now.

    Heck, even a H1-B body shop can blackmail employees by strategically holding documents — illegal, but some guys even hold passports of employees, so this will make it too easy.

    S

  18. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    I think any sign of stability is positive, even at 10% UE.

    The comparison of this economy to the bubble economies of 1998-2007 are a joke. The jobs are never coming back and neither is the full employment rate.

    We need to compare this economy vs great depression, ww2 and the 70s stagflation disasters. Then it will make a little more sense why appl stock is doubling every six seconds.

  19. Final Doom says:

    Yeah, but where are the signs of stability?

  20. Mr Hyde says:

    14 shore

    Its not just the democrats. The GOP would have done more or less the same thing. The enitre economy is floating on “pretend&extend”. No politician is going to willing pull the plug on economic life support.
    Both parties are 2 heads of the same dragon. The democrats are currently in power and so are “running the show”. but that doent make the GOP any less vile

  21. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    DEARBORN, Mich. (AP) — Ford Motor Co. said Tuesday it earned $2.1 billion in the first quarter, another sign the economy is improving as people spend more on big-ticket items like cars. The automaker expects to be solidly profitable this year, a year earlier than its previous guidance.

    In a sign of its confidence in the economic recovery, Ford said it’s boosting North American production in the second quarter to 625,000 vehicles, a 9 percent increase over first-quarter levels. The increase could mean additional hiring by Ford, but Chief Financial Officer Lewis Booth said Tuesday it’s too early to say

  22. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “but where are the signs of stability?”

    just the fact that prices and stocks and UE isnt freefalling anymore is stability.
    The expectations were so dire last year that even the thought of things not getting worse from here is extremely good news (even if they dont get better from here).

  23. Final Doom says:

    Can NJ be far behind?

    “The time-bomb that is public-pension obligations keeps ticking louder and louder. Eventually someone will have to notice.

    This month, Stanford’s Institute for Economic Policy Research released a study suggesting a more than $500 billion unfunded liability for California’s three biggest pension funds—Calpers, Calstrs and the University of California Retirement System. The shortfall is about six times the size of this year’s California state budget and seven times more than the outstanding voter-approved general obligations bonds.

    The pension funds responsible for the time bombs denounced the report. Calstrs CEO Jack Ehnes declared at a board meeting that “most people would give [this study] a letter grade of ‘F’ for quality” but “since it bears the brand of Stanford, it clearly ripples out there quite a bit.” He called its assumptions “faulty,” its research “shoddy” and its conclusions “political.” Calpers chief Joseph Dear wrote in the San Francisco Chronicle that the study is “fundamentally flawed” because it “uses a controversial method that is out of step with governmental accounting standards.”

    Those standards bear some scrutiny.

    The Stanford study uses what’s called a “risk-free” 4.14% discount rate, which is tied to 10-year Treasury bonds. The Government Accounting Standards Board requires corporate pensions to use a risk-free rate, but it allows public pension funds to discount pension liabilities at their expected rate of return, which the pension funds determine. Calstrs assumes a rate of return of 8%, Calpers 7.75% and the UC fund 7.5%. But the CEO of the global investment management firm BlackRock Inc., Laurence Fink, says Calpers would be lucky to earn 6% on its portfolio. A 5% return is more realistic.”

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303695604575181983634524348.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_opinion

  24. Jamal Van Jones says:

    Finance Overhaul Debate Blocked by Senate Republicans (Update2)

    U.S. Senate Republicans blocked Democrats from advancing their plan to overhaul Wall Street regulation, saying they want to force changes before beginning full debate.

    No Republican broke ranks today to join Democrats in the 57-41 vote, with 60 needed to begin consideration of the bill. The two sides remain apart on several provisions, including consumer protections and derivatives.

    “All of us want to deliver a reform bill that will tighten the screws on Wall Street,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, said before the vote. “But we’re not going to be rushed into another massive bill based on the assurances of our friends on the other side.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amTAxYubKn4A&pos=8

    In other words, we don’t even want to pretend to make essentially toothless changes to the regulatory mechanism.

  25. NJGator says:

    N.J. students plan mass walkout to protest Gov. Christie’s school cuts

    Thousands of New Jersey high school students are expected to walk out of classes today to protest education cuts proposed by Gov. Chris Christie.

    “A lot of things are being cut, like clubs and after school activities,” said Kathi Lloyd, a senior at Newark’s University High School. “A lot of kids come to school for the clubs and if they cut those, school is really boring for them.”
    Lloyd, 17, joined thousands of fellow New Jersey students on Facebook, where the protest was first organized. According to the site, more than 16,000 students plan to leave school between 8 a.m. and 4 p.m.

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2010/04/thousands_of_students_expected.html

  26. NJGator says:

    Trenton to raise homeowners taxes by 22 percent after council fails to finalize budget

    http://www.nj.com/mercer/index.ssf/2010/04/trenton_to_raise_homeowners_ta.html

  27. make money says:

    oh happy days….

    Case-Shiller: Home Prices in 10 Metro Areas Up 1.4%, 1st Time in Nearly 4 Yrs Annual Rates of Change in Positive Territory (more to come)

  28. Barbara "just wait till fall" Believer says:

    26. Gator,
    what they are really raising are landlord’s taxes in a town that is overwhelmingly tenant. Its a political no brainer, they play the “landlords are evil” card, landlords can’t vote because (most) are not resident and rent control takes care of the welfare. In come the plywood windows and the Abbot money. Win, win for Trenton city council.

  29. Cindy says:

    http://www.arcamax.com/babyblues

    Baby Blues today:

    “Mom I think I might want to play Lacrosse.”

  30. safeashouses says:

    Doom,

    We all have unfunded liabilities. The 30 year old with 100k in retirement funds needs at least 10 to 15 times that in today’s dollars to be able to retire in their 60’s.

  31. JJ says:

    Now that John Q Retail Investor is buying Ford time to dump it.

    veto that – lawrence yun ‘the panda’, ‘next fall’ says:
    April 27, 2010 at 8:51 am
    DEARBORN, Mich. (AP) — Ford Motor Co. said Tuesday it earned $2.1 billion in the first quarter, another sign the economy is improving as people spend more on big-ticket items like cars. The automaker expects to be solidly profitable this year, a year earlier than its previous guidance.

    In a sign of its confidence in the economic recovery, Ford said it’s boosting North American production in the second quarter to 625,000 vehicles, a 9 percent increase over first-quarter levels. The increase could mean additional hiring by Ford, but Chief Financial Officer Lewis Booth said Tuesday it’s too early to say

  32. Barbara "just wait till fall" Believer says:

    sameasiteverwas

  33. Yikes says:

    mega millions $191 million. cash option … probably $110 mil.

    Final Doom says:
    April 27, 2010 at 7:19 am

    nomad (4)-

    75% of adult Americans think a lottery ticket is an investment.

    This won’t end well.

    i will gladly contribute $5 to the dumb tax at some point today.

  34. JJ says:

    Considering ladies don’t want to stay home and do housework no more that means today’s 30 year couple can put 16.5K x 2 in the 401K, or 33K a year, with an average return of 8% and a starting balance of 100K I think they can retire in style.

    safeashouses says:
    April 27, 2010 at 9:10 am
    Doom,

    We all have unfunded liabilities. The 30 year old with 100k in retirement funds needs at least 10 to 15 times that in today’s dollars to be able to retire in their 60’s.

  35. safeashouses says:

    The Ukranian parliament was brawling.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/europe/04/27/ukraine.punchup/index.html?hpt=T1

    Rememeber when Russia was withholding natural gas supplies? Well extending Russia’s lease for a navy base in the Ukrane gets the Ukrane a big cut in the price of natural gas.

    Who needs nukes and tanks when you have energy supplies.

  36. nah says:

    Is JJ = John? Should it be JW?

  37. Painhrtz says:

    Kathi (with an i) Lloyd needs to get religion, Gator. sorry school is boring hon, but is not our responsibility to provide you with your dungeon and dragons league, gay na$i eskimo club, or your young whatchamacalit club. If you need to find social interaction maybe you and your texting buddies should actually do things for the community without costing the taxpayers money. We used to do it when we were kids it was called volunteering and when we weren’t volunteering we were working or hanging out somewhere drinking beers.

  38. Yikes says:

    JJ/House Wine – I get to work from home everyday, and to break the day up, i hit the gym mid-afternoon. it is usually empty.

    but i have seen more and more middle-age guys in there. i sometimes wonder if they are independently wealthy or unemployed.

    i guess they could wonder the same about me …

  39. safeashouses says:

    JJ,

    I doubt most middle class families even put 5k a year away in retirement plans.

  40. House Whine says:

    39-safehouses:
    Funny though that they may put away a certain amount and then they end up borrowing against it anyway. Especially now that their other savings or investments have been drained. I believe I read recently that more and more people are putting their 401k’s in jeopardy, draining them to help pay big bills now.

  41. All Hype says:

    Ford has gradually cut costs and improved sales since the depths of the recession a year ago. Ford made $2.7 billion last year. But the company remains saddled with significant debt. Ford said its debt increased by $700 million to $34.3 billion in the quarter.

    Debt = Profit = Recovery.

    Only in Amerikastan.

  42. yo'me says:

    I think any sign of stability is positive, even at 10% UE.

    The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index of property values in 20 cities increased 0.6 percent from February 2009, the first gain since December 2006, the group said today in New York. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a 1.3 percent advance

  43. Cindy says:

    http://www.interfluidity.com/v2/817.html

    interfluidity – Steve Randy Waldman

    “Goldman and “hope”

  44. 1987 Condo Buyer says:

    #34, #23 Hmmm…8%……my actuarial science degree was earned when pension funding was set at the 30 year Treasury rate….perhaps we are slowly recognizing that was where it should have stayed all along….

  45. chicagofinance says:

    A death nail sounds like a martial arts weapon…..

    323.Barbara “just wait till fall” Believer says:
    April 27, 2010 at 1:18 am
    Mike,
    this will be the death nail. Obama is suprisingly tone deaf on this one.

  46. Final Doom says:

    Nice to see Montag bringing the same cutting-edge ideas to BAC that he used at GS. Undoubtedly, it will be financial engineering that restores America to its former glory.

    “Thomas Montag, the former head of sales and trading in the Americas at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., called a set of mortgage-linked investments sold by his firm “one shi**y deal,” according to an excerpt from internal e-mails released today by Senate lawmakers.

    The transaction was Timberwolf Ltd., a $1 billion collateralized debt obligation holding pieces of other CDOs, according to a statement today from the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. The CDO also included optimistic side-bets on the performance of CDOs, or derivatives, in which the firm took the opposite pessimistic side in “many” cases, the panel said.

    “Boy that timberwo[l]f was one shi**y deal,” Montag, who is now Bank of America Corp.’s president of global banking and markets, said in a June 22, 2007, e-mail to Daniel Sparks, who ran Goldman Sachs’s mortgage business at the time, according to the panel’s statement. Within five months of Timberwolf’s debut, the CDO had lost 80 percent of its value, and it was liquidated in 2008, according to the panel.

    Sparks, who left the bank in 2008, in one e-mail urged “personnel working on a potential Korean sale to ‘[g]et ‘er done,’ and sent a mass e-mail to the sales force promising “’ginormous credits’ for selling” the debt, according to Levin’s statement. “A congratulatory e-mail was sent to an employee who sold a number of the securities: ‘Great job … trading us out of our entire Timberwolf Single-A position,’ ” the panel said.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDYd47MITKvE&pos=1

  47. Confused in NJ says:

    “A lot of things are being cut, like clubs and after school activities,” said Kathi Lloyd, a senior at Newark’s University High School. “A lot of kids come to school for the clubs and if they cut those, school is really boring for them.”

    Kind of Sad but maybe explains our slippage in world standings.

  48. Final Doom says:

    yo (42)-

    Too bad actual UE is more like 20-22%.

    “I think any sign of stability is positive, even at 10% UE.”

  49. Painhrtz says:

    the wife and I where watching a murder mystery show on Bio last night. they were showing the victims bank statements from the seventies my wife commented on the amount 3000.00, I commented on the ineterest rate 11.8% annual. We used the DVR to rewind and confirm and there it was. Good god could you imagine a bank actually (gulp) paying you to use your money. how un-Amerikan.

  50. Libtard says:

    We can expect the February, March and April Case-Shiller numbers to show an incremental improvement. It’s the May, June and July reports that will really tell the tale of a recovery. Unfortunately, May does not come out until July 27th. By the way, from my perch the Case-Shiller numbers were awful. Check out the updated seasonally adjusted graph. It’s going to take about 1,000 months at the current rate of change to make up for the last two and a half years. Be careful of the press spin on this.

    http://bloomberg.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=442783&cust=bloomberg&year=2010#top

  51. chicagofinance says:

    The end is nigh….

    Taiwan temblor a titillating story on cleavage day

    By HELEN FREUND and JEREMY OLSHAN

    Maybe the world really is hanging on by a bra strap.

    The same day that women showed off their cleavage to disprove an Islamic cleric’s claim that such displays cause seismic activity, there was, in fact, a 6.5-magnitude earthquake in Taiwan.

    “Maybe I shouldn’t wear a low-cut shirt ever again,” said Annie Marter, 33, in Manhattan. “I feel really bad.”

    Though the Taiwan quake resulted in no injuries and minimal damage, Iranian cleric Hojatoleslam Kazem Sedighi may feel vindicated by the result.

    “Many women who do not dress modestly . . . lead young men astray, corrupt their chastity and spread adultery in society, which increases earthquakes,” he said last week.

    Jennifer McCreight, a graduate student in Indiana, then came up with the idea of a national day, dubbed Boobquake, to protest the remark.

    She said yesterday she’s not convinced that all of the extra partially exposed breasts were to blame for the shakeup on the other side of the globe.

    Still, “if we get many of a similar magnitude in the next 24 hours, then we might start worshipping the power of immodesty,” she quipped. “But I have a feeling that we’re not going to support the cleric’s hypothesis.”

    Geophysicist Don Blakeman of the National Earthquake Information Center said the results of the Boobquake experiment are inconclusive at best.

    “I can’t say for certain that women showing cleavage doesn’t cause earthquakes, but the activity we’ve seen [in Taiwan] is nothing out of the ordinary,” he said. “The cleric could look at the 6.5 and say, ‘Look, it did happen’ — but it’s nothing conclusive.”

    In fact, there were more quakes worldwide with greater than a 5.0 magnitude Saturday and Sunday than yesterday.

    Earthquakes have always caused superstitions, Blakeman said.

    “There’s always something you can imagine a correlation [with],” he said. “Some people in Southern California believe there is earthquake weather — they think when it gets hot, there are more earthquakes — but that is not the case.”

    Though there were no organized Boobquake events in the city yesterday, New York women said they supported the protest against the cleric’s statements.

    “It’s a way of oppressing women and blaming them for the world’s problems, when really it’s just plate tectonics,” said Lisa Goins, 24, an NYU graduate student.

    Others said they didn’t need an official holiday to try to shake things up.

    “I guess pretty much every day you can catch me wearing something pretty revealing,” said Daniele Ciandella, 20, another NYU student.

  52. Final Doom says:

    confused (47)-

    She should be ripped out of school, given a blue smock and chained to a cash register.

  53. Outofstater says:

    In moderation :( And it was real doom and gloomy too.

  54. Final Doom says:

    Probably one of those dumb bitches who can’t give change until her register displays it.

  55. Final Doom says:

    pain (49)-

    There was also disco music everywhere you went and you could only buy gas every other day.

    Obviously, you never got stuck in a gas line where your only diversion was listening to Leo Sayer followed by the Captain and Tennille.

    After I turned 17, I drove pretty much everywhere with a .38 in my glove compartment. I’m now amazed at the self-control I exerted in not using it.

  56. Cindy says:

    Clot – #29 was for you….

    “Mom I think I want to play Lacrosse.”

    “What’s that?”

    “It’s a fun sport where you get to whack people with a stick. The Iroquois invented it.”

    “Where were their mothers?”

  57. NJGator says:

    When are y’all running off to buy one of these?

    Millburn Deli sandwich benefits First Aid Squad

    On April 1, the Millburn Deli will launch The Sue Adler.Combo sandwich, with $1 from each purchase going to the Millburn-Short Hills Volunteer First Aid Squad.

    Named for Sue Adler, township resident and local realtor, the Sue Adler.Combo will feature grilled chicken, fresh mozzarella cheese, ripe avocados, fire-roasted tomatoes, crisp cucumbers, tender baby greens, a drizzle of Balsamic vinegar and a hint of pesto, served fresh on thinly-sliced whole-grain bread. The sandwich will appear on the menu at Millburn Deli for six months.

    http://www.northjersey.com/community/announcements/89091062_Millburn_Deli_sandwich_benefits_First_Aid_Squad.html

  58. Painhrtz says:

    Clot, I remember being stuck in my parents ford Fairmont in gas lines outside the naval base we resided. Step father had to push it the last 100 feet, while my mother, brother and i cooked in the car. It was considered a night out. The sounds of Tony Orlando, James Taylor and that roadkill Harry Chapin polluting my ears.

  59. Final Doom says:

    Cindy (56)-

    Only the men’s game is a gang assault with sticks. Much more skill and less contact in the women’s game.

    Also, where else can you find girls named Muffin? Anytime my daughter comes up against a girl with a boarding-school name, that girl gets a cross-check. To date, my daughter informs that no one in the Muffin/Ellery/Paisley set retaliates.

  60. Juice Box says:

    #25 Re: Newark schools and a walkout. Those kids should be hitting the books not worrying about clubs and extracurricular activities.

    $940 million total budget for 40,000 kids. $717 million is state aid. 14% in Federal Aid.

    Only 10% comes from local tax levy.

    http://www.nps.k12.nj.us/PDF/2009BudgetPresentation2.ppt

    Unsustainable, how many more generations of failure are we going to have to support?

  61. Final Doom says:

    gator (57)-

    Sue Adler should be the meat in a JJ sandwich:

    Chinese cardboard buns, onions, extra “mayonnaise” and haunch of Realtor.

  62. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [269] [prior thread] pain

    Already there. I have brought such suits and defended them as well.

    [291] [prior thread] jamil

    GC holders that renounce are also listed on Ms. Kaminski’s quarterly reports.

  63. Final Doom says:

    gator (57)-

    Does the antidote cost extra?

  64. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [323] [prior thread] barbara

    Well, I did say that the AZ law would be the next flashpoint. If Obama federalizes the AZ national guard and deploys them on the pretext of defending the civil liberties of, well, he’ll have to pick someone, then that will ratchet up the tension, and likelihood of shooting, by a factor of 12.

    Not only will the NG be viewed as an occupying army, but it will attract crazies from other states.

    It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy, which is precisely what Rahm is hoping for.

  65. tbiggs says:

    #26 Gator –

    “Trenton to raise homeowners taxes by 22 percent after council fails to finalize budget”

    and in the article it says the mayor wanted a 56 percent increase! madness!

    Myself and some friends bought a very, very run-down Victorian over near Cadwallader Park in 1987 for $22K to fix it up. The taxes even then were almost $4K a year, for a house with holes in the walls and a tiny lot. That was decades ago – I can’t imagine what the taxes would be today!

  66. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Markets all red (whole world) now that’s more realistic. See what happens when you pick on GS or maybe its the PIGS, China’s empty cities or 20% unemployment one never knows.

  67. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Speaking of self-fulfilling prophecies, did anyone catch that the dems now want a law to regulate what health insurers can charge?

    Right now, rates are regulated by the states. But Obamacare has (by design) created an incentive, if not a need, for insurers to raise rates.

    Now, dems expected this, and will use it as the pretext for public option, but it has an unfortunate side effect—-people will blame dems for insurance and costs going up. So to get in front of this, dems now propose regulating what insurers can charge (in effect, taking over from the states).

    This will also have a collateral effect that the dems will use to get public option: If insurers are regulated, they will cut back coverages or exit the business altogether. Once that happens, the dems can roll out public option again.

    Even public option is an interim measure. Because physicians, hospitals, etc., will not lower their costs, they may start turning away public insurance recipients. There are many alternatives the USG can take here, but one of them is to require doctors to take public insurance patients or lose their license (never mind that the states govern licensure).

    The goal is single payer, and if anyone thinks that the dems have given up on that, I’ve got some naturally irrigated, fertile farmland in AZ that I can let you have cheap.

  68. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    14.

    Both the Republicans and Democrats are corporatists who present their shill for the presidency. The only difference is which industry they represent. All represent the banks.

  69. yo'me says:

    •Consumer Confidence in U.S. Rises to Highest Level Since ’08 on Job Gains

  70. sas says:

    so, what happens when the govt paycheck stop?

    you’re job, town, county, and state depends on it.

    and you think you “diversified” to reduce risk in your silly portfolio.

    ha, think again.
    SAS

  71. Painhrtz says:

    Nom 67 I think that has always been the play.Price fixing, extortion, and corparitism in the name of the public good. Who said facism is dead.

  72. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — President Hugo Chavez threatened on Sunday to nationalize gold mining concessions in Venezuela, accusing mining companies of damaging the environment and violating workers’ rights.

    The socialist leader called the holders of gold mining concessions “crazy people” driven by capitalist greed who don’t care about laying waste to Venezuela’s pristine jungles while exploiting employees.

    “We cannot allow national and transnational mafias to continue destroying our homeland,” he said during his weekly television and radio program, “Hello President.”

    Sounds familiar.

  73. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    Buy the whole market.
    It’s only allowed to go up.

  74. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [45] chi fi

    “Obama is suprisingly tone deaf on this one.”

    Kinda like “the [Cambridge Police] acted stupidly”?

  75. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    67.

    Nom,

    Public option wont work. Cant cover costs unless of course we change the healthcare system to hospital and clinic based care. In which case productivity goes down and complications go up which is exactly what they want.

    Doesnt matter anyway. With what this country is facing youll be lucky to get a bandaid in a MASH unit.

  76. dan says:

    Gator,

    I was in the Millburn Deli last Saturday. If I knew about the sandwich, I would have bought it although I’ll probably be donating to that squad soon like I have in the past.

  77. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    New lows for Case Shiller NY Metro – NSA
    Jan-09 180.93
    Feb-09 177.84
    Mar-09 173.6
    Apr-09 170.67
    May-09 171.16
    Jun-09 172.36
    Jul-09 174.16
    Aug-09 175.48
    Sep-09 175.32
    Oct-09 174.94
    Nov-09 173.08
    Dec-09 171.91
    Jan-10 171.27
    Feb-10 170.46

  78. JJ says:

    A little over one year ago today, Citigroup, Bank of America and Comerica were all paying 16-20% interest on your money, 11.8% sounds like peanuts to me.

    Painhrtz says:
    April 27, 2010 at 9:36 am
    the wife and I where watching a murder mystery show on Bio last night. they were showing the victims bank statements from the seventies my wife commented on the amount 3000.00, I commented on the ineterest rate 11.8% annual. We used the DVR to rewind and confirm and there it was. Good god could you imagine a bank actually (gulp) paying you to use your money. how un-Amerikan.

  79. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    I dont care about the good news in the national index. Im not buying in montana or georgia.

    The NJ/NY home prices are lower today than they have been for 6 years.

  80. yikes says:

    gotta love the troglodytes in monmouth and ocean county.

    tastycakes for sex? sure.

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2010/04/nineteen_men_arrested_for_alle.html

    ASBURY PARK — Nineteen men from Monmouth and Ocean counties have been arrested in Asbury Park after police during a prostitution sting involving an undercover officer who was offered a package of Tastykakes and cash for sex, according to a report by APP.com.

    Police say they arrested 19 men on Kingsley Avenue near Asbury Avenue over several hours on Friday, the report said.

  81. Anon E. Moose says:

    Re [25};

    Kathi Lloyd, a senior at Newark’s University High School…

    “Well, the world needs ditch diggers too, Danny.” -Judge Samils

  82. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    But
    NY/NJ Condo mkt continues to stabilize. I guess all those people getting foreclosed from their mcmansion need somewhere to live.

    Yr Mnth NY Condo Values
    2009 1 213.3
    2009 2 211.6
    2009 3 207.8
    2009 4 203.1
    2009 5 199.8
    2009 6 197.5
    2009 7 197.0 <-Low point
    2009 8 197.6
    2009 9 197.7
    2009 10 199.0
    2009 11 198.2
    2009 12 199.5
    2010 1 199.2
    2010 2 199.3

  83. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    80.

    Yikes,

    Can you imagine when homosexuals get the right to serve openly in the Marine Corp.

    That will do wonders to unit cohesion when “Timmy the fudge packer” offers “Gunny” a package of tastycakes. This is exactly the intended consequence.

  84. Anon E. Moose says:

    Re [72];

    Nationalize the oil industry; then the gold mining industry… Could the railroads and the steel mills be next? Wesley Mouch for President!

  85. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    Improvement in YOY change for NY/NJ…
    still downward price changes but at a stabilizing rate.

    Month NY/NJ YOY Change
    Apr-09 -12.4%
    May-09 -11.9%
    Jun-09 -11.5%
    Jul-09 -10.1%
    Aug-09 -9.3%
    Sep-09 -8.5%
    Oct-09 -7.8%
    Nov-09 -7.2%
    Dec-09 -6.3%
    Jan-10 -5.3%
    Feb-10 -4.1%

    If this trend continues at this rate, we will have flat yoy price changes within 6 months in NJ/NY.

  86. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    JJ Ford is brilliant to continue to leverage their way out of the hole.

    They will use inflation to their benefit. Plus their operations are churning profits.

    Thats what i call smart management.

  87. SirRentsalotBravelyRanAwayFromNJ says:

    Hey – can any of the resident realtors confirm that this horrid POS at 1108 Heckel Drive in Mountainside is still actually available?
    The history is interesting. I believe it was originally listed at $899K. Now, $639K and still not selling. Eeeww.
    http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Mountainside-Boro_NJ_07092_1116701973

  88. Painhrtz says:

    JJ not all of us are as market savy or risk happy as you are. I would be thrilled with a consistent 8-10% annual return on any of money just sitting. I would love to stay on the sidelines with the market. Current climate doesn’t allow us risk averse folks that luxury. I’m not much of a gambler either.

  89. Painhrtz says:

    I have a real proposal for you Fearless leader. Stop adding social programs and cut the ones that already exist. Tax everyone at a minimal level and the deficits will disappear. We really have a government crippled by stupidity and no sense of reality.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100427/ap_on_bi_ge/us_deficit_commission

  90. relo says:

    79: Guess this removes the “real estate is local” mantra from the NJ realtors talking points.

  91. skep-tic says:

    on the teacher discussion from last night, I agree that teaching is a really tough job and a decent salary is deserved. those who do not think it is tough probably don’t know anyone who actually does teach for a living. what is senseless, however, is the ability to retire at age 50 with a massive pension and benefits. if you are making $80k, $90k or $100k as many teachers in this area do after a few years, you should be capable of saving for your own retirement like everyone else– especially given the fact that your job security is virtually guaranteed. Plus, you have the entire summer to make additional money. Many teachers I know have lawn service or pool cleaning businesses from which they make pretty good money in the summer.

  92. NJGator says:

    If this one sells at asking the taxes should be well over $300k/year.

    http://emailrpt.gsmls.com/public/show_public_report_rpt.do?report=clientfull&Id=54050687_280877

  93. Reginald says:

    83. Just think Al, of all the fun you’ll have in that fox hole.

  94. skep-tic says:

    full case-schiller press release below (pdf). can anyone look at the first chart and not think the market is improving?

    http://www.standardandpoors.com/spf/docs/case-shiller/CSHomePrice_Release.pdf

  95. Seneca says:

    Go Portugal!

  96. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “can anyone look at the first chart and not think the market is improving?”

    Skeptic,
    We dont talk about improvement here.
    That cs chart doesnt exist.
    Either be really negative or go away.
    Those are your two choices.

    Now, watch and learn.

    How about this market crash – huh guys? Its brutal out there!

  97. Juice Box says:

    re: #91 – skep

    The teachers have to accept the outcome they have no choice now. No amount of praying for the demise of the Governor or marches down in Trenton are going to change the fact that the NJEA union refused wage freezes and at the same time refuse to participate in Race to the Top funding and lost out on 400 million in Federal money which was about half of the state shortfall in school funding.

    Why because of merit pay and charter schools.

    But it is about the “children” is a bunch of hooey and we all know it. The Union would rather lose thousands of new teachers than give an one inch during this recession where unemployment is the highest it has been in 30 years.

    Right now Christie and Schundler are trying to get the veteran teachers to retire. For most retirement can start at age 55 and older. Those that are eligible for retirement have average $109,000 salary and will get a very generous pension and medical if they retire before August.

    The NJEA and it’s members can save the after school programs and jobs of the younger teachers by a mass retirement this summer.

  98. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    What i see in the crashing stock market this morning is a monster buying opportunity.

    A chance to go all in and then some.

    But hey, maybe thats a big mistake.

  99. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    93 – Gator, Is that an entire Condo complex, or just one unit?

  100. NJGator says:

    Veto – SFH – Most expensive listing ever in Montclair market – by about a multiple of 5.

  101. Mr Hyde says:

    Al,

    The spartans along with a few other historically competent militaries used homosexual relation ships amongst troops to build unit cohesion and family structure within ranks.

    It was the duty of the older more experience soldier who took a younger partner to train and care for the younger partner as he would his own child. It wasnt uncommon for those who betrayed the duties to end up dead by the youngers hand.

    Its was considered a part of growing up and the younger men would move on to wed and have families once they had matured.

    Of course it wasnt idealic, but was used in such a manner.

    The current issue is judeo-christian morals conflicting with shifts in social norms.

    Having been in the military, i think its only an issue because its hyped up to be one. If you are being shot at you dont care who the guy in the foxhole with you beds as long as you can trust him with your life.

  102. skep-tic says:

    #50

    ” By the way, from my perch the Case-Shiller numbers were awful. Check out the updated seasonally adjusted graph. It’s going to take about 1,000 months at the current rate of change to make up for the last two and a half years.”

    we all know that if you bought between 2003 and 2008 you remain screwed. but for FTHBs today this is a very positive report.

  103. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    skept, Whoever said that comment was right. seasonally adj data shows way worse trend for nj/ny.

    Month NY/NJ SA
    Aug-09 175.6
    Sep-09 175.3
    Oct-09 174.8
    Nov-09 172.8
    Dec-09 171.9
    Jan-10 170.7
    Feb-10 169.9

  104. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    I wish the nj real estate market could do what the S&P500 is doing right now as we speak.

  105. Free Lyrics says:

    I found this post while searching for popular lyrics. Thanks for sharing I’ll be back regularly.

  106. RentinginNJ says:

    N.J. students plan mass walkout to protest Gov. Christie’s school cuts

    Yup. Watching a decent amount of people protesting in Newark right now

  107. skep-tic says:

    VEto– luckily for me, CS data for Boston is clearly positive.

  108. Mr Hyde says:

    So what just happened to the markets????

    DJIA, S&P, Forex, all just went nuts.

  109. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [107] renting

    Watched them crossing McCarter Highway. Lots of horns. Students probably thought it was support.

    Nope, they were crossing against the light, and pissing off everyone on the highway.

  110. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    108, was there bubble as high as ours on the way up?

  111. Mr Hyde says:

    Veto 111

    Yes boston was as bubbly as NJ/Ny

  112. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “So what just happened to the markets??”

    They are right sizing.

  113. Final Doom says:

    plume (110)-

    Nothing there that some tear gas and rubber bullets can’t sort out.

  114. Final Doom says:

    PPT being summoned off the beach now.

  115. Final Doom says:

    Watch somebody gun the SPY going into the bell.

  116. Seneca says:

    Not listening to CNBC right now but guessing at least someone in the past hour as said the words “buying opportunity”.

    Art Cashin maybe?

  117. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    relo, if the sa numbers at 104 is skewed toward optimism, we really are fcked.

  118. Juice Box says:

    Facebook School Walkout Organizer Bio.

    Organizer Michelle Lauto, who graduated last year from Old Tappan High School in Bergen County and is now a student at Pace University in New York, said she wanted to join the cause because her mother is a teacher and her sister is a school secretary.

    “What we want to do is get attention to the issue and show primarily that the youth is not apathetic to the issue,” said Lauto, 18, an actress who’s especially concerned that arts programs could be eliminated.

    Actress?

    Here is her work in the high school version of RENT.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AV4ZUkgNZNQ

    After she graduates from Pace with a Ba in Drama she can always get a job at the Bada Bing.

  119. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “Watch somebody gun the SPY going into the bell.”

    Clot, here at treasury, we refer to this as Open Market Operations.

  120. Mr Hyde says:

    Veto,

    Damn you! I just dumped my life saving into SPY futures, long, 5 minutes before it fell off a cliff!

  121. Mr Hyde says:

    Hows that greek bailout going?

    No link:

    The Greek melodrama remained front and center as rumblings of contention with regards to the bailout package began to rear their head. Germany’s FDP party came out with a statement noting concern “that it is not going to be a one-off rescue, but will turn into continuous, automatic help for any country that ends up like Greece.” In other words, if Greece is too big to fail, who will be next in line? Portugal, Spain and Italy (with tens of billions in debt to refinance over the next few months) are likely candidates on this front.

  122. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    Sorry Hyde, my advice to go all in with margin was in reference to the long term. You know, 5 to 100 yr time horizon.

  123. Libtard says:

    This happens way too often in the Northeast. So frequently, we are the last to drop, but also the last to recover. I don’t have any data to support my argument, but it just seems that this is always the case with unemployment and housing.

  124. Libtard says:

    “N.J. students plan mass walkout to protest Gov. Christie’s school cuts

    Yup. Watching a decent amount of people protesting in Newark right now”

    That’s the social security office, not a school!

  125. Libtard says:

    DV is up over 2% :P

  126. Final Doom says:

    McCaskill calling GS guys in the hearing “bookies”.

    Much too complimentary, if you ask me.

  127. freedy says:

    case shiller now positive, i guess spring
    selling season is working

  128. skep-tic says:

    so is the consensus on the board that the case schiller chart is going to reverse its obvious upward slope imminently? triggered by mega-volcano or asteroid impact, perhaps?

  129. Libtard says:

    Actually Skep, look at 1989 to 1991. This was followed by another sizable dip after the recovery in 1992. Actually, the current pullback looks mysteriously similar on the the chart to 89 to 81. Only in 89 to 81, the government didn’t buy 1.3 trillion in MBS debt, didn’t keep the lending rate at 0% and didn’t offer tax credits to homebuyers. How you can ignore all this (and the giant shadow inventory of foreclosed homes that the insolvent banks are now allowed to ignore)?

    If the SHTF scenario is to play out, it will occur right around 3rd quarter earnings. Businesses will have very difficult year over year comps, the data on housing will finally not include the influence of stimulus and we’ll have mid term elections entering the fray.

    Until then it’s all wishful thinking based on too short a period in your data set.

  130. SirRentsalotBravelyRanAwayFromNJ says:

    “Guess this removes the “real estate is local” mantra from the NJ realtors talking points.”

    Ha!

  131. relo says:

    132: Let’s not go to Camelot. It is a silly place.

  132. Mr Hyde says:

    Skeptic,

    Markets do not move in straight lines on the way up or the way down. If the government can actually find a way to create a financial perpetual motion device and maintain their artificial supports under RE then your recovery period may have begun.

    Then again if they cant, then as BC likes to say, its going to be along walk home.

  133. Juice Box says:

    Remember the N-word incident down in DC that the MSM associated to the Tea-Party during the health care vote?

    Never Happened.

    http://bigjournalism.com/abreitbart/2010/04/26/no-more-beer-summits-tea-party-n-word-incident-didnt-happen-and-the-congressional-black-caucus-owes-america-an-apology/

  134. skep-tic says:

    #131

    “Only in 89 to 81, the government didn’t buy 1.3 trillion in MBS debt, didn’t keep the lending rate at 0% and didn’t offer tax credits to homebuyers. How you can ignore all this (and the giant shadow inventory of foreclosed homes that the insolvent banks are now allowed to ignore)?”

    I was deliberately trying to be provacative above, but also I am not ignoring all of the gov’t intervention. In fact, I am assuming the market is/will be stabilized precisely because gov’t intervention in the housing market will continue in perpetuity. The gov’t essentially owns the housing market right now given that they insure almost every mortgage out there. It would be suicidal for them to pull back support.

  135. JJ says:

    PLEASE, Portugal, Greece, GS Love Notes come on now, weak excuses for a pull back. But good anyhow, rather this then another few weeks straight up and then a massive sell off.

  136. Painhrtz says:

    Relo post again and I shall be forced to taunt you a second time!

  137. RU says:

    #120. I would love for one reporter to ask the students if they would give up their cars, cell phones and designer clothes for a year to save the cut programs. I wonder how many would actually do it? If my child was one of the kids that walked out. The first thing I would do is take away one of those prized possessions. She would learn real quick about sacrifice. See what is more important a cell phone, car, etc or drama club??

  138. Mr Hyde says:

    Skeptic

    I am assuming the market is/will be stabilized precisely because gov’t intervention in the housing market will continue in perpetuity

    Thats a pipe dream. The government is juggling 500 balls at once and is going to have to drop a few, lest they drop all of them, in order to keep the show going.

    I cant predict how long they can continue this game but i personally think its very limited, another few years at best. My guess is things start t o get ugly again fall 2010 – spring 2011 in terms of housing.

  139. relo says:

    120: Sean,

    Northern Valley regional, of which OT is a part aymk, lost $1.8MM of aid vs a $50MM budget, which was passed. This for a total of less than 2,400 students district wide.

  140. relo says:

    138: Let me go back and face the peril.

  141. skep-tic says:

    the world depends on the USA living beyond its means. this can and will go on for decades because there is no viable alternative. in the long run, I agree with Mr Hyde that this is unsustainable, but in the long run we are all dead.

  142. Libtard says:

    “but in the long run we are all dead.”

    Which brings us back to the question of how long the long run is.

  143. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “The gov’t essentially owns the housing market right now given that they insure almost every mortgage out there. It would be suicidal for them to pull back support.”

    Skeptic, Good observation. Never thought of that. Govt has skin in the game. They also want the banks to regain their footing. A bet against the housing market is a bet against the people who make the rules. Thats not a trade i want to get in front of.

  144. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “in the long run, I agree”

    alot can change in the long run.

  145. Painhrtz says:

    Because it is Montklair big fella, a place so wonderful even the Chinese want to do business there

  146. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    Hey Pain, Mrs. Hype told me the taxes and my heart skipped a beat. Told her the utopia of Essex County may not be a viable option anymore. She is slowly capitulating to that idea.

  147. Final Doom says:

    veets (146)-

    So…bet against commercial RE. Lots of midsize & state-chartered banks involved in that crap. And, the gubmint doesn’t give a damn about those smaller fish.

  148. NJGator says:

    All Hype – Taxes are actually low there because you’ve got Woodman Field light across the street.

    Check out the sales history. Someone once paid $575k for that POS.

    http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/m4.cgi?&district=0713&block=4401&lot=22&qual=

  149. Mr Hyde says:

    Greek bonds (2yr & 3yr) are at 15% as of today.

    Party on garth!

  150. Anon E. Moose says:

    Hype [145];

    “POSSES: flexable”

    Realtors R hylee edukaded by the bloo ribin NJ publik skool sistum.

  151. Barbara "just wait till fall" Believer says:

    I may be selling a property, can someone explain this nj transfer tax? It goes to the seller, correct? I may have the wording wrong. The tax that was invented during the bubbly years…?

  152. skep-tic says:

    so what is the problem with just letting greece default and then booting them from the euro? is it fear on the effect this would have on german banks? if so, then why not just bail out the banks?

  153. Ben says:

    “Markets do not move in straight lines on the way up or the way down. If the government can actually find a way to create a financial perpetual motion device and maintain their artificial supports under RE then your recovery period may have begun.

    Then again if they cant, then as BC likes to say, its going to be along walk home.”

    Actually, the Zimbabwe Market does move in a straight line and has been doing so for years.

  154. Painhrtz says:

    Hype,
    I got Mrs Pain to agree to Morris county that wasn’t Madison or Mendham. Took alot of pain and suffering on my part good luck.

    Kick a$$ just read Greece is in junk status and Portugal was downgraded. Looks like the PIIGS are lining up for slaughter. Also as predicted the financially conservative Germans are getting cold feet. Ruh Roh!!

  155. Painhrtz says:

    Barb i thought the buyer paid it.

  156. NJGator says:

    Barb 154 – I am pretty sure the seller pays it. I remember when we bought our place in 2004 that one of the owners was p*ssed because since he lived out-of-state, his share of it was taken by Trenton at the closing. Now mind you he was getting well north of 200k for a house that he never bought. It was purchased by his parents and his sister who never married was granted a life estate in the property…he and the other surviving sister split the entire proceeds and they sold to us provately and did not have to pay any realtor’s commissions.

  157. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “the gubmint doesn’t give a damn about those smaller fish.”

    Doom, Im not really a gambler so i pob wont do it but thats a good point.

    If your not tbtf, you pretty much have no business model at all.

  158. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    Standard & Poor’s downgraded Greek debt to junk status

  159. Mr Hyde says:

    TEVA Pharmaceuticals is closing its Sellersville PA site and moving the whole thing to virginia.

    Thats going wack higher paying employment in the northern bucks county area.

  160. Barbara "just wait till fall" Believer says:

    Gator,
    I’m trying to find the % and if its on the total sale or after the mortgage lien.

  161. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    Hyde 162:

    This is another kick in the a$$ for that area. The Pzizer/Wyeth merger caused a lot of layoffs as well as Sonofi-Aventis slowly winding down operation there.

  162. Reginald says:

    120. Or take a meaningless back office position and post cynical myopic messages on a real estate
    chat board……

  163. Painhrtz says:

    Hype – we all are going to have a lot of friends looking for work. I know folks at the Sellersville site and Sanofi. Getting to the point when we are all going to have to form little entities to survive.

    Will the last one with a job please turn off the lights.

  164. Mr Hyde says:

    Skeptic 155

    If Greece defaults it will devastate a number of large European banks. France specifically has a number of its large banks heavily invested in Greek debt.

    Both France and Switzerland are into Greek debt for about 80 billion USD.

    France is also sitting on about 700 billion in additional loans to the other PIIG nations.

    If/when Greece goes down it is entirely possible that it triggers a domino effect in the other PIIG nations. Such an event would be very nasty for France and for most of the larger European banks.

    In the end Greece will most likely default, go back to the drachma, and leave the EU

  165. Mr Hyde says:

    On a RE note.

    I know a guy at the sellerville TEVA site who just bought a house for cash in virginia when he took the offer to relocate to the new site.

    Then again its in the middle of nowhere in virginia

  166. NJGator says:

    Barb 163 – I think it’s on the total sale, but I could be wrong since our sellers had no mortgage.

  167. Libtard says:

    I’m pretty sure it’s total sale as well.

  168. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    German stock market down 4%.

  169. NJGator says:

    Barb – Try this. There’s also a link to a tax calculator for it.

    http://www.njretoday.com/2009/09/how-to-calculate-the-nj-real-estate-transfer-tax/

  170. MSP says:

    Anybody ever heard of a seller asking for proof of funds (bank statements, 401k statements, etc) before accepting a bid?

  171. Hip-Hoppa Jamzbone says:

    Yo man, I dun walked out of my school to protest them bujit cuts, and thot I’d check out what NJ real estate wizards think about our ballzy move. I cant believe you dogs dont support us kids. Don’t you know the children are our future – well here I am, give me yo monay, I’m the future, I need some extacurclular axtivities. Peace.

  172. Painhrtz says:

    Hyde at this point I would live in the middle of nowhere if I could be garunteed a job and no mortgage. Save you a$$ off and relocate somewhere nice after ten years. Are they keeping their up north salary or are they expected to take a re-adjustment?

  173. RentinginNJ says:

    Greek bonds (2yr & 3yr) are at 15% as of today.

    to be fully repaid in devalued Drachmas.

  174. Mr Hyde says:

    Renting 178

    to be fully repaid in devalued Drachmas.

    Nope. The loans are denominated in EUR. a devalued Drachma does pay a bill in EUR

  175. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    dangit! I think ppt went short today.
    I never saw that coming.

  176. Mr Hyde says:

    oopps

    a devalued Drachma does NOT pay a bill in EUR

  177. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    John, if you are the investor i think you are, you will dump every last cent you have into greek sovereign debt right now.

  178. Libtard says:

    I convinced my investment club to purchase the adr TEF. The market thinks it’s a Spanish/Portuguese cellular company when in actuality, they derive most of their profit from South America. Plus it has a 15% dividend to boot.

    Disclaimer: I also invested in inversely leveraged ETFs.

  179. RentinginNJ says:

    Nope. The loans are denominated in EUR. a devalued Drachma does not pay a bill in EUR

    Yes, but this is sovereign debt issued by Greece, not the ECB. Greece can pretty much do whatever it wants.

    They could simply default or repay in devalued Drachmas.

  180. Mr Hyde says:

    Renting

    nope. The loans were issued in euro. To repay them in drachma they would have to convert the drachma to euro then give the euro to the lenders. A devalued drachma does not help as it would be next to worthless on the FX market.

    If they attempted to repay directly in drachma they are for all intents and purposes defaulting on the loan.

    That is actually one possible scenario for their default in which Greece and their lenders would hype it as something other then a default in order to attempt to prevent the collapse to spreading to the other PIIGS

    The loans must be repaid in the currency in which they were issued.

  181. Libtard says:

    Who prints the Euro? Can’t they just follow the Japanese example and print more Euro’s? According to Skep, it worked for us ;)

  182. Mr Hyde says:

    Renting

    Greece can pretty much do whatever it wants.

    Yes they can, and will default in one form or another. As a result there wont be much choice but to kick them out of the EU. it will also shut them off from lending for a while and prices for imported goods within Greece will skyrocket.

  183. Juice Box says:

    Drachmas? Greece has used the Euro since 2002.

  184. skep-tic says:

    so are the odds high that a greek vacation summer 2011 will be very much cheaper?

  185. Libtard says:

    “so are the odds high that a greek vacation summer 2011 will be very much cheaper?”

    If you don’t mind vacationing among rioters and looters.

  186. Mr Hyde says:

    Libtard

    A print strategy only helps greece while hurting the core EU members who loaned greece the money. On top of that a devalued euro hurts most of the member EU nations except for germany who’s industry would be helped on the world market.

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  188. Barbara "just wait till fall" Believer says:

    thanks stu and gator, looking now to see if its total sale or profit, etc.

  189. Mr Hyde says:

    Libtard

    Greece’s need is immediate and anything except for a crash printing program wouldnt help greece’s funding/debt issue.

    I am also with doom in that i think we will see the euro approach 1:! with the US dollar in the next few years

  190. Libtard says:

    “A print strategy only helps greece while hurting the core EU members who loaned greece the money.”

    Didn’t stop the Fed from diluting my wealth to help those Wall Street banks.

  191. Barbara "just wait till fall" Believer says:

    Greece or Iceland this summer? With my Citi rewards I could probably stay for a month each.

  192. NJGator says:

    Barbara – Pretty sure it is total sale. None of the calculators I found ask for a profit number.

  193. Confused in NJ says:

    A Greece default may adversley effect Goldman, in which case Geitner will have no choice but to buy all Greek Toxic Assets at original valuation using US Tax Dollars. Obama will approve it, as he believes in Change, which is all the Taxpayers will be left with in their pockets.

  194. Barbara "just wait till fall" Believer says:

    Gator,
    yeah I thought maybe it was calculated like capital gains but nope.

  195. njescapee says:

    197, Tax is based on total sale to be paid by the seller.

  196. Final Doom says:

    msp (174)-

    You bet…especially if there’s a lot of cash involved in the buy.

  197. Final Doom says:

    hyde (181)-

    How about handwritten IOUs, or vouchers redeemable at a “later” date?

  198. RentinginNJ says:

    It sounds like you actually agree then. With, of course, the caveat that repaying in Drachmas is nothing more than a default disguised as something a little less onerous than an outright default.

    Bondholders get maybe $0.25 on the dollar paid in Drachmas. In exchange for not defaulting outright, greece hopes to mitigate some of the panic and establish the Drachma as a legitimate, although devalued, currency. Will it work? Is is better than outright default? I don’t really know.

  199. Final Doom says:

    veets (180)-

    Shake out those late longs. :)

  200. Barbara "just wait till fall" Believer says:

    200. njescape

    thanks. gubmint DO take a bite…

  201. Mr hyde says:

    Libtard

    the major nations would have to agree to the printing and in this case it is not in their interests to do so.

  202. Final Doom says:

    rent (203)-

    Back to drachmas is a default. I bet the CDS all consider such an outcome as an adverse credit event.

  203. Mr hyde says:

    Think of Greece as California. Neither has control of it’s currency and neither has the ability to devalue it’s debts. The only way Greece gains that ability is to leave the EU and go back to the drachma.

    Until then Greece and California are in essentially the same boat

  204. Seneca says:

    I love the smell of a market selloff after 3:30pm.

    Can’t fight the trend right?

  205. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    clot

    Further to my expatriation “nonadvice” yesterday, it was predicated on the fact that I believe you have dual citizenship, hence expatriation is easy.

    For those without dual citizenship, it is much harder, not because of any US law, but because one must have someplace to expatriate to, and most other countries are not as accomodating as us.
    In fact, getting another country citizenship is time-consuming and likely expensive.

    However, I thought of a way to get nationality in another nation quickly and easily, especially if you have no intention of returning here: Defect!

    There are countries that would accept defectors from the U.S., especially if they have capital to invest. Notably, Venezuela is close by, and they would make you a cause celebre for defecting from the Great Satan.

    Also consider 3rd world countries where you can get a passport simply for greasing the right palm, or promising future investment. Be sure, however, that your future banana republic doesn’t tax offshore holdings.

    Remember also, you don’t have to live in the country you defect to. Once you have the passport, you can live abroad in Country X as a citizen of Country Y so long as they don’t later go to war.

  206. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “Shake out those late longs. :)”

    Nah, im not going to chase returns or react to selloffs.

    Any adjustments to my portfolio are done at the asset allocation level.
    Ive already decided my ira will be 50% invested in all sorts of risky assets so im going to let the market do what it wants.

    I cant afford to be all cash if the dow explodes to 22k or gold shoots to 3,000.

    Besides id be a horrible day trader.

  207. Libtard says:

    “the major nations would have to agree to the printing and in this case it is not in their interests to do so.”

    I know that Hyde…I’m just playing. Although, if the domino effect occurs and it really does begin to pain Euro banks, I could see them agreeing to do this to avoid bank runs.

  208. Mocha says:

    “Can’t fight the trend right?”

    advance/decline volume tells the whole story.

  209. Libtard says:

    Come on, the market has gone straight up since March of 2009. An occasional 2% drop ain’t nothing. I’m surprised there haven’t been more mini corrections/consolidations along the way.

  210. Mocha says:

    85 million/1.3 billion

  211. Mocha says:

    Anyone who has been long in the last month isn’t in a position of strength.

  212. yo'me says:

    DOW losses grip to 11,000.-212

  213. Mocha says:

    Bring the PIGS to the slaughter

  214. Mr hyde says:

    Renting 203

    yes I agree with that. As clot said it is highly likely it also triggers a nuclear load of CDS

  215. njescapee says:

    listening to the GS / Senate hearings on and off this afternoon. Shitty is the new black. LOL

  216. Juice Box says:

    You guys crack me up with all of this talk on default and CDS. We are talking like $10 million–$20 million per CDS contract anywhere from 1-10 year maturity. Anyone dealing with that kind of change needs to really be a baller.

    LONDON (MarketWatch) — The cost of insuring Greek government debt against default continued to soar well into record territory Tuesday, rising further after ratings agency Standard & Poor’s cut Greece’s credit rating to junk status. The spread on five-year CDS neared 800 basis points following the announcement, according to Markit. That means it would cost nearly $800,000 a year to insure $10 million of Greek debt against default for five years. The spread had widened to a record 760 basis points earlier in the session before narrowing toward 700 basis points

  217. Juice Box says:

    Wow 1.319 on USD/EURO/USD heading for new low.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=eurusd=x

    I am headed there Friday from some RnR. Would be nice if I can get it down even further by next week.

  218. WickedOrange says:

    Sen. Carl Levin asked the CEO of goldman, “I have an email here from one of your employees stating that they knew they were selling crappy securities to clients. How does that make you feel as CEO? How does that make you feel?”

    The CEO of goldman responded, “Makes me think I wish he didnt put that in an email.”

  219. sas says:

    corporate securities in brokerage account..ha. ha

    sucker

    SAS

  220. MSP says:

    Thanks Doom. Makes me think there is an all cash or very significant cash offer coming in. We’re at about 30-35% down which is a significant amount given the price of the house. Time will tell. Thanks Again.

  221. Juice Box says:

    Senators are asking the wrong questions.

    ASK WHY THE PROP TRADING AND CLIENT
    TRADING DESKS are right next to each other and HAVE THE SAME MANAGER!!!!

    http://www.businessinsider.com/goldmans-ny-cdo-prop-trading-desk-is-right-next-to-its-client-trading-desk-and-both-share-the-same-director-2010-3

  222. gary says:

    You cannot legislate the poor into freedom by legislating the wealthy out of freedom. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving.

    The government cannot give toanybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that my dear friend, is about the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it.

    Adrian Rogers, 1931 – 2005

  223. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    Another stellar day for metal.

    Never thought Id grow up to be a coin and gun collector.

  224. Rusty Trombone says:

    What’s next Al, civil war reenacting?

  225. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    231.

    Civil War reenacting is childs play. Im preparing for life on the Planet of the Apes.

  226. yo'me says:

    The Post Invents Projections of Economic Crisis
    Tuesday, 27 April 2010 16:26

    The Washington Post (a.k.a. Fox on 15th Street) told readers that: “Official forecasts suggest that without sharp changes in federal spending or tax collections, the United States could enter into a downward spiral of indebtedness that by the end of this decade would erode the country’s ability to educate its children, care for the elderly or mount a robust national defense.”

    Wow, that sounds really dire. It would have been great if they gave a source for this one because that is not what the standard sources say. For example, if we go to our most recent Budget and Economic Outlook from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), we find the economy growing at an average annual rate of 2.4 percent over the years 2015-2020. CBO also projects average productivity growth for this period at 1.8 percent a year, meaning in principle that living standards can rise at roughly that rate. It also projects an average interest rate on 10-year Treasury bonds of 5.5 percent, this is only slightly higher than the low-point of the budget surplus years at the end of the Clinton administration.

    In short, there is no evidence in these projections of the sort of crisis described in the Post article. It would be interesting to see the document(s) that provide the basis for the Post’s assertion

    Dean Baker

  227. Poultry Farmer says:

    NJREREPORT.COM

    where people gather to share Chicken Little impressions.

  228. NJGator says:

    Those in flood zone assessed higher in Little Falls tax revaluation

    LITTLE FALLS — The township’s property tax storyline follows a familiar North Jersey theme: taxes up at the low end and down at the high end.

    In fact, residents with homes in the flood zone — which was inundated by the Passaic River during last month’s floods — say new assessments on their homes are too high for a neighborhood that has flooded three times in the last five years.

    A state-mandated property revaluation designed to repair tax inequities cut tax bills this year on the most expensive homes in Little Falls — usually by more than 10 percent — while owners of more modest properties saw their levies rise upward of 20 percent. Commercial property owners, meanwhile, generally got a small benefit in the form of small tax cuts.
    The disparity that hit Little Falls homeowners when they received their 2009-10 tax bills resulted from the town’s first revaluation since 1986. Revaluations are required in communities across the state to update property assessments that local governments use to levy property taxes.
    “There were significant changes in market value over a 20-year period,” said Glen Sherman, executive vice president of Appraisal Systems, a Ridgewood company that did Little Falls’ revaluation. “It wasn’t as if any areas were targeted. That was the shift based on market value.”

    In Little Falls’ revaluation, which was completed in the fall of 2008 and took effect when bills went out last fall, the median assessment for all properties rose 164 percent, from $139,300 to $368,100. In other words, half the property assessments went up by more than 164 percent in the revaluation and half went up by a lower percentage.

    But the typical low-end home’s assessment rose from $75,000 to $236,150. That’s a 215 percent increase, which was well above the typical percentage gain and resulted in the typical bill for homeowners in this group growing by 21 percent. About one in four homeowners in this group got hit with a tax increase of at least 30 percent.

    http://www.northjersey.com/realestate/90271212_Those_in_flood_zone_assessed_higher_in_Little_Falls_tax_revaluation.html

  229. Shore Guy says:

    “Those in flood zone assessed higher in Little Falls tax revaluation”

    Of course they were. They are used to getting soaked.

  230. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    Ron Paul asked how much time do we have to wake up 4/27/10.

    Transcript.

    “Glenn Beck: How much time do we have, Ron? How much time do we have to wake up?

    Ron Paul: That is hard to say. Timing is really tough in Austrian economics. We know what the inevitable outcome will be, but I would guess it’s just a few more years. I would think the handwriting to be clearly on the wall before Obama finishes his first term.

    Glenn Beck: Okay.

    Ron Paul: Which means the next shoe is the crisis in the dollar, the value of the dollar, not just the financial system.

    Glenn Beck: Okay.

    Ron Paul: We will see high inflation rates soon.”
    http://www.ronpaul.com/2009-07-16/ron-paul-if-obama-wants-change-he-should-support-fed-audit/

  231. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    I dated the interview wrong. That interview was last summer. My bad.

  232. Mr Hyde says:

    Last!

  233. Rusty Trombone says:

    Those damn dirty apes.

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