Hank Paulson hasn’t heard about the real estate crash

From the WSJ:

Paulson’s $4.6 Million D.C. Crib Hits the Market

Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is asking $4.6 million for his three-bedroom house in Washington, D.C.

The former Goldman Sachs CEO, who defends the bailout of Wall Street in his recently published memoir, “On the Brink,” bought the home with his wife, Wendy, in 2006 for $4.3 million. The three-story home sits on 0.44 wooded acres and has beamed ceilings, an office and a master suite with a living area. The entry level of the home has some of the bedrooms; the lower floor has living space that leads out to stone terraces.

Adjacent to a park, the home was built in 1940 and gut-renovated in 2001. It has sold several times in the last 10 years; broker Anne Hatfield Weir of Washington Fine Properties, who shares the listing with her sister Heidi Hatfield of the same firm, says owners have kept selling as they’ve left the area. “It’s a charming house,” she said. The Paulsons are moving to Chicago, according to an item in the Washington Post Wednesday.

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502 Responses to Hank Paulson hasn’t heard about the real estate crash

  1. Rusty Trombone says:

    Well there’s winners and there’s losers……..they ain’t no big deal…

  2. Cindy says:

    It looks more like a hide out. I wouldn’t say it has much street appeal.

    This is nice…

    “The home at one point belonged to former New Jersey governor Jon Corzine, who was Co-CEO of Goldman with Mr. Paulson before Mr. Paulson helped oust Mr. Corzine and become sole CEO.”

  3. grim says:

    He took his job *AND* his house.

    Sounds like he was the perfect candidate to be Goldman CEO.

  4. safeashouses says:

    #3 grim

    Yet he didn’t go after his woman?

  5. grim says:

    Throw in the dog and you’ve got a country song. Besides, he dated Katz, says a lot about his choice in women.

  6. Final Doom says:

    One of the listing agents, Heidi Hatfield, introduced me to my wife.

    Small world.

  7. Cindy says:

    Just received “13 Bankers” Johnson/Kwak and “Econned” Yves Smith in the mail. Which one do I read first? Maybe I’ll start both at the same time.

    “13 Bankers has 50 pages of “notes to pages so and so” at the end of the book. It looks like a text book.

    Best reading so far “The Big Short.” Couldn’t put it down.

  8. safeashouses says:

    Looks like I won’t be getting that 8k tax credit.

  9. Final Doom says:

    Roubinator, back down to fighting weight:

    “While today markets are worried about Greece, Greece is just the tip of the iceberg, or the canary in the coal mine for a much broader range of fiscal problems,” Roubini, who teaches at NYU’s Stern School of Business, told attendees at the Beverly Hilton hotel. Increasing tax revenue won’t be enough to “save the day,” he said.

    Greece “could eventually be forced to get out” of the 16- nation euro region, he said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday. That would lead to a decline in the euro and make it “less of a liquid currency,” he said. While a smaller euro zone “makes sense,” he said, “it could be very messy.”

    “Eventually, the fiscal problems of the U.S. will also come to the fore,” he said during the panel discussion. “The risk of something serious happening in the U.S. in the next two or three years is going to be significant” because there’s “no willingness in Washington to do anything” unless forced by the bond markets.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEv_4Sp6xERU&pos=3

  10. Final Doom says:

    safe (8)-

    Biggest come-on and sucker play in the history of real estate.

    That’s why my call is for a bigger, more expansive credit to be put in place by 1/1/11.

  11. Final Doom says:

    Burn, mf’er, burn!!!!!

  12. Final Doom says:

    Spring market, DOA.

    Summer market, DOA.

    Fall market, DOA.

    I’ve always said the market doesn’t go to 0. However, we’re about to see it get as close to 0 as it will ever come.

    There are NO buyers out there in my area. None. Nada. Zippo. Walked into an open house (yes, a very nice house) on Sunday afternoon at 4 PM in a prime tax credit-eligible neighborhood (300K-ish). We were the first- and only- people to show up. I have tax credit-eligible listings (that are not short sales) all over the place, and they haven’t had a single showing in 10-14 days.

    The 40 years in the wilderness has begun.

  13. Nomad says:

    Doom,

    You really think a bigger credit starting Jan?

    When are they going to let the thing cycle naturally – I guess never right?

    Still wondering if it all crumbles in a matter of a few days.

    Revising my plan with no intent to start looking again until Sept. Sellers will start to squirm a bit more by then.

  14. Final Doom says:

    nomad (13)-

    My new method of analysis is to determine what’s the dumbest, most counterintuitive and damaging move the gubmint can make. Inevitably, this will become the course of action.

    Gonna be a long walk home.

  15. Cindy says:

    14 – Clot

    ….determine what’s the dumbest, most counterintuitive and damaging move the gubmint can make…

    Case in point: California has too many houses for sale so let’s give a credit for new construction – $10,000 no less.

    http://www.housingwatch.com/2010/03/29/california-home-buyers-to-get-10-000-tax-credit/

  16. Final Doom says:

    Cindy (15)-

    Should be a boon for the bulldozer industry.

  17. Final Doom says:

    Cindy (15)-

    OTOH, in Victoria, Australia, a homebuyer can qualify for tax credits and giveaways that total just over 40K.

    Still don’t understand why Australia gets put up as an example of a more stable economy. A couple of interest rate hikes don’t really impress me, as it seems like a case of “barn door open, horses gone”. They have multiple bubbles that will wipe them out when they blow.

  18. Cindy says:

    http://www.interfluidity.com/v2/822.html

    A Knife Fight is not Mediation –

    Steve Randy Waldman – interfluidity

    “IKB/ACA may have been “sophisticated.” They may have been dumb, or corrupt, or unlucky. But, in an adversarial negotiation with John Paulson, they would not have shared the same agent with him. A knife fight is not mediation.”

  19. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “The risk of something serious happening in the U.S. in the next two or three years is going to be significant” because there’s “no willingness in Washington to do anything” unless forced by the bond markets.”

    Doom (9),

    It’s a slam dunk, the bond vigilantes will have a field day. Presently, having too much fun across the pond.

    Question for small business owners; Are you better off than you were $6 Trillion Dollars ago? Why allow TBTF to rob the vaults. Anybody care about too small to succeed?

  20. JJ says:

    I saw Rockmaster Scott sing that way back inday. Other than the roof my favorite song of his is “tastes great less filling”

    All ##### eat ###### All Women suck ####, tastes great less filling. OMG, funny seeing a bunch of women drunk as skunks singing that song and Rockmaster Scott pulling up in a purple limo to the club all looking like he just got his outfit from huggie bear’s closet.
    Final Doom says:
    April 29, 2010 at 7:08 am
    Burn, mf’er, burn!!!!!

  21. Cindy says:

    19 – BC

    “Anybody care about too small to succeed?”

    I had to console a co-worker yesterday when she found out her husband would be the next to go if they can’t work something out at his engineering firm. He is already taking Fridays off and has taken a pay cut on top of that. There are now four employees left in his office out of 20 just two years ago.

    I have also watched a construction friend fire all employees but family members. The CA problem seems to be that we built up so many companies around the construction industry. When it went bust – the jobs dried up.

    The idea behind the $10,000 tax credit appears to be saving jobs in construction. It’s not like we need more houses out here.

  22. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    Cindy (22),

    I’m half Japanese and half Greek. I’m Wantanapolous.

  23. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    Spain with 20% unemployment. Looks like they will have to borrow so they can lend to Greece. They will need a bailout too. Only question is whether they will serve apple strudel at tapas bars.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/spanish-q1-2010-unemployment-number-accidentally-leaked-surpasses-20-first-time-1997

    One other note, the bailout of Greece will cost Germany roughtly 9 billion a year for 3 years and may need to be increased if the austerity measures do not work. Those Germans are going to be pissed paying for the God given rights of Greeks to take month long vacations.

  24. Cindy says:

    23 – You crack me up.

    Thought you would get a kick out of this: “What’s Your Home Worth….in Gold?”

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/201591-what-s-your-home-worth-in-gold

    Chart @ Seeking Alpha

  25. Yikes says:

    on an upcoming trip, we have a 1 night layover in london. can anyone recommend a reasonably-priced, safe hotel in a cool area?

  26. outbid says:

    12 Doom,

    The sad things is, try different towns 20 or 30 miles from your place in the sticks, you will see a completely different picture.

  27. Anon E. Moose says:

    Safe [8];

    Come 4/30 amateur hour is over. Now that the rubes are out of the market, the REAL buying season begins. I never quite understood the loging of spending $500k to get $8k, but apparently it appealed to someone out there.

  28. Mocha says:

    Actually have a friend, whom I thought was rather intelligent, tell me the 8k was “worth a shot” & “it might help”. This is someone with an MBA in finance from a reputable university. Truly amazing.

    “apparently it appealed to someone out there”

  29. Anon E. Moose says:

    [28] cont’d;

    loging == logic

    I’m gonna love all the suckers who jumped in to contract and will lose the $8k because they can’t close by June 30.

    Besides, there are more than 105 million households in America. Never again in my life am I going to get to watch $840 Billion in housing stock market capitalization vaporize before my very eyes. This on the whim of some idiot former used house sales flack now sitting in Congress because some Georgia folks wanted him there.

  30. NJGator says:

    Safe 8 – You’re in good company. Neither will we!

    58 Harvard in Glen Ridge is now officially under contract. It will be fun when it closes to see how much the Hoboken peeps overbid us.

  31. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    Can anyone recommend a municipal credit default swap on Irvington, NJ?

    I want to do my part to accelerate the long painful road to the inevitable.

  32. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “the market doesn’t go to 0. However, we’re about to see it get as close to 0 as it will ever come.”

    Doom, I would prob settle for a dollar.
    Assuming it was at least a 4 br of course.

  33. NJGator says:

    On the local newsfront, Montclair will be firesaling assets, so we don’t have to fire people and can stay at a 14% municipal tax increase.

    Last time we did this, we sold the former Grove Street School for $1M. This year, we are spending $38M to build the new Charles Bullock school, which will open in the fall.

    And yes, these are the same people who will be teaching Lil Gator math.

    Township Auction to Auction Label Street Property

    Bids & RFPs
    Township Auction to Auction Label Street Property
    Share this
    Twitter Digg Del.icio.us StumbleUpon Yahoo Googlize this FacebookHear this textExport PDFPrintE-mail

    Township Auction:
    16 LABEL STREET
    Block 3307/Lot 5

    Montclair Township announces the auction of municipally owned property at 16 Label Street, Tuesday, May 11, 2010, 10:00 a.m., Municipal Building Council Chambers, 205 Claremont Avenue.

    The State of New Jersey terminated its lease on the property, which was used as a motor vehicle inspection station since 1937. The 11,920 square foot property at the corner of Forest Street contains a one-story brick building. The building dimensions are 33 feet by 162 feet (5,436 square feet) plus 451 square feet of office space. There is a small paved parking area accessed by a driveway on Label Street. A second driveway provides access on Forest Street.

    The site is located in the C2 General Business and Light Manufacturing Zone, the least restrictive zone in the community, which permits a wide range of commercial uses. The site is across the street from an R2 Two Family Residential Zone and less than two blocks away from the Walnut Street business district. Forest Street is 31.8 feet in width and Label Street is 35 feet in width. Parking is permitted on the south side of Label Street for 2 hours, with some metered spaces near the soccer bubble. On the north side, 2 hour parking is permitted near the intersection of Forest Street, but no parking is permitted on the easterly portion of Label Street. Two-hour parking is permitted on both sides of Forest Street.

    The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection has issued a No Further Action Letter in connection with the removal of two hydraulic lift systems from the property. A copy of the No Further Action Letter may be obtained from the Township Attorney, Alan G. Trembulak, Esq., 205 Claremont Avenue, Montclair, New Jersey 07042 (telephone: 973-509-4934).

    http://montclairnjusa.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2417:township-auction-16-label-street&catid=145:bids-a-rfps&Itemid=467

  34. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “Can anyone recommend a municipal credit default swap on Irvington, NJ?”

    Yes just use the State of nj CDS, They are practically one in the same entity at this point.

  35. MSP says:

    Doom,

    Totally different situation in lower Morris County and Northern Somerset County. Multiple bids coming in on homes priced where the tax credit means little or nothing. Also, homes in the million’s are selling too.

  36. Why is it always the people running the country who end up being the most clueless when it comes to normal life activities?

  37. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    I smell OPPORTUNITY in the air this moring.

    Maybe its the fact that market futures are up double digits out of the gate.

    Is today the day that the dow jumps through its all time record high?

  38. Libtard says:

    Veto,

    I doubt it. That will occur on Monday.

  39. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    GOLD BUGS,
    Is this the day that your extreme eccentricity finally pays off?

  40. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    What is the connection of windex and greece?
    Besides the scene from my big fat greek wedding.

  41. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “That will occur on Monday.”

    Yes this is very true.

    But which Monday?

  42. Painhrtz says:

    Gator I’m sure that place is highly contaminated and the lucky buyer will be on the hook for any remediation. buyer beware when you buy town properties at auction.

  43. Mr Hyde says:

    The euro bailout should be quite a circus.

    the initial estimates were 28 billion for the Greek bailout and have since jumped to 159 billion to the latest estimate from GS and JPM of 794 billion

    No way the Germans agrees to 700 billion in aid when that is for Greece alone.

    They know that Greece is just the opening round. The other PIIGS are right in line for their own handouts.

  44. Painhrtz says:

    vinyl because normal people have jobs

  45. relo says:

    Sound familiar? Remember Ol’ Fred of GSC was selling that sweet NJ crib posted on WSJ House of the Day and posted here a while back.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703648304575212641381556412.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsForth

  46. Cindy says:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/201661-is-greece-going-to-default

    The Pragmatic Capitalist – Is Greece going to Default?”

    Also a Felix Salmon article @SA where he extrapolates from a FT article that El Erian says they will default.

  47. Mr Hyde says:

    Why dont we just go ahead and give Europe to Germany. They seem to run a pretty tight ship and could probably whip the place right into shape. They almost did it last time before the stupid Americans crashed the party.

    They also seemed to have learned a lesson and are playing nice with Russia this time around.

  48. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    Pain:

    The old MV inspection station is really not in a great part of Montclair. I do not know what you would do with it. Build more condos, not likely. I could see it as a parking lot for the Walnit Street Train Station but not much else.

  49. Mr Hyde says:

    Cindy,

    Greek default is about as close to a sure thing as you can get. The more interesting question is do Portugal and Spain default as well. Portugal probably will, and i give Spain a 50/50 chance at this point.

    Lets not forget Italy as well. They have some serious financial skeletons in the closet.

  50. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    Love the markets this am…

    ZIRP = Sky high markets.

  51. sas says:

    “Throw in the dog and you’ve got a country song”

    not yet, need to throw in lyrics about trains, trucks, and momma.

    :P
    SAS

  52. borat obama says:

    First

  53. borat obama says:

    Hii fiveee

  54. Libtard says:

    It is really not the selling of the old MV station that is the issue. It’s the fact they are selling at a terrible time for commercial property sales and they are using the proceeds to pay township operational costs.

    Here is the letter I sent all of our town council members. They love me!

    ————————————–

    It’s fiscally irresponsible to sell town property to cover operating costs

    This decision is only worsened by your terrible timing. Why would you try to sell the Label Street property in the worst commercial real estate market in decades?

    This town continues to ignore it’s long-term debt, (over $17,000 per resident) and this short-sighted action just maintains this modus operandi. If our revenues do not afford us the option to maintain our services at their current level, then cuts should be made to reflect the loss in revenue. Not selling property which simply kicks the can down the road for 12 more months. Selling Label Street at this most inappropriate time in an effort to cover operating costs is simply a deplorable decision. For a town council that appears hell-bent on solving environmental issues that will impact our long-term viability, it is awfully surprising to see such a short-term gimmick utilized to avoid making a difficult decision. This action is cowardly and shows a complete lack of leadership on your part.

    The auction mentions that you have the option to reject all of the bids for the property. I expect you will make the proper decision and reject all of the bids. Perhaps you may offer the property in a leasing agreement to all of the bidders solicited.

    I live just yards away from the Deron School on Christopher Street. Please don’t make the same $38 million dollar mistake again.

  55. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Tax News of the Day:

    State is looking under more rocks for loose change.

    “New Jersey Court Affirms Denial of Tax Exemption

    The New Jersey Superior Court Appellate Division April 20 affirmed the denial of an exemption for a local property tax as it found that the International Schools Services Inc. (ISS) failed to satisfy one of the three prongs for an exemption (International Schools Services Inc. v. West Windsor Township, N.J., N.J. Super. Ct. App. Div., No. A-4911-08T1, 4/20/10).

    ISS is a nonprofit corporation organized for the “moral and mental improvement of men, women and children.” The court said that, based on a state case outlining a three-prong test, ISS used a portion of its profit to subsidize the operations of its profit-making affiliates through the provision of professional services that were not “charged back.” It said that, although ISS has an educational mission, it lent its name and reputation to promote joint profit-making ventures.”

  56. CC says:

    Anyone from Bridgewater or knows about this town? as in good/safe areas. How are the Taxes in this town? Does it have easy commute to NYC?

    Thanks,
    CC

  57. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Tax News of the Day—Double Feature

    Gravy train kept a rollin’ all night long.

    “N.J. High Court Overturns Disqualification
    Of Law Firm in Atlantic City Tax Challenge

    The Supreme Court of New Jersey April 26 overturned a state tax court finding that a law firm must be disqualified from representing individual taxpayers who brought 2009 tax appeals against Atlantic City, N.J., based on the firm’s prior representation of the city on tax matters (Atlantic City, N.J. v. Trupos, N.J., No. A-23-09, 4/26/10).

    Writing for a unanimous court, Justice Roberto A. Rivera-Soto said New Jersey Rule of Professional Conduct 1.9(a) provides that a lawyer who has represented a client cannot then represent another client in the same or a substantially related matter in which the client’s interests are materially adverse to the interest of the former client without the former client giving informed consent in writing. . . .”

    “. . . we conclude that the individual property owners’ real estate tax appeals are not substantially related to the firm’s earlier terminated representation of the municipality. Therefore, the order disqualifying the law firm was in error and must be reversed.”

    Keeping it in the family, as it were.

  58. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    BUY THE MARKET ON THE GREEK RUMORS.
    SELL ON THE NEWS.

  59. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Enough with the negativity, just look at the markets, they keep going higher!!! Don’t miss out, get in while you still can! You were a fool at S&P 700 when it went up to 1200 don’t be a fool at S&P 1200 on our way to 2100.

  60. Painhrtz says:

    Hype – that would actually be a profitable solution, create a parking gargage for the train station slobs. Sell parking passes to the off to NY chattle., and Montklair has an income generating property. Sadly knowing the liberal snooty town you and the wife live in, they will do the exact opposite.

  61. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    Pain, yes you are quite right. The parking deck there would be a blight and reduce the property values of the mini ghetto around it. There is probably a Forest Street Preservation Society that will demand they approve the development plans before construction moves forward. All the increased traffic will make the streets less safe for the neighborhood kids who refuse to use the sidewalks while walking to school.

  62. Painhrtz says:

    Hyde – the problem is no body in europe likes the Germans, they have some social issues of their own (turkish immigration, islam issues), and they have some underfunded nanny state obligations.

    On a side note knowing the Germans everything would be cleaner, and the trains would run on time.

    Leaving Germany into France last year we knew exactly when we crossed the border, there was garbage everywhere on the French side. (Strassbourg) We had to go into the countryside to feel like we were enjoying our vacation again.

  63. hughesrep says:

    56

    Towns are looking for loose change too.

    I just got hit with a summons for a CO. I forgot I had a temporary CO for the house from last September. It was pending the replacement of a furnace. I replaced it on my own, without permits. I didn’t realize you needed permits for a direct replacement. The town is hitting me up for 4 permits, three inspections, and then re-applying for the permanent CO.

    I am appealing my taxes with a vengance next year.

  64. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “the Germans everything would be cleaner, and the trains would run on time.”

    German mgmnt would absolutely destroy Ibiza in a ny minute.

  65. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    50 – Hyde,
    I’d bet UK got downgraded before all those countries.

  66. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    Tiger Woods has enumerated the exact number of women he cheated with.
    The number is…
    wait for it…
    121

  67. sas says:

    “Metropolitan Transportation Authority Announces More Cuts”
    http://www.1010wins.com/MTA-to-Lay-Off-Hundreds-of-Bus–Subway-Workers/6927934

  68. Libtard says:

    Headline in Yahoo Finance:

    “Jobless claims fall to lowest level in 4 weeks”

    Chart revealing Jobless claims from Bloomberg:

    http://bloomberg.econoday.com/showimage.asp?imageid=19093

    Wouldn’t a better headline read, “Jobless claims are still 28% higher today than they were two years ago?

  69. Mr Hyde says:

    Veto

    I dont really see you as an Ibiza club hopper type? Rolling on E and speed for a 5 day bender in the 24hr trance clubs then sleeping on the beach for 2 days in a speedo followed by repeating the cycle. I just dont see it.

    Beside the germans seem to do pretty well with Love Parade, i think they could handle Ibiza

    Pain
    Like? Who cares if anyone likes the Germans. Thats what the German police are for.
    The Germans can appoint local “governers” for the different nations from the former local governments and make it look pretty for the locals.

  70. Confused in NJ says:

    67.veto that – lawrence yun ‘the panda’, ‘next fall’ says:
    April 29, 2010 at 10:20 am
    Tiger Woods has enumerated the exact number of women he cheated with.
    The number is…
    wait for it…
    121

    What are the odds of sleeping with 121 HO’s and not contracting a fatal disease? About the same odds as Bernake raising interest rates before the economy is irrevocably destroyed.

  71. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “Wouldn’t a better headline read, “Jobless claims are still 28% higher today than they were two years ago?”

    Lib, that would depend if the glass were half full or half empty…

  72. Mr Hyde says:

    Veto,

    The UK is a possibility, but they have ability to manipulate their own currency which may allow them to extend&pretend longer then the PIIGS

  73. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “I dont really see you as an Ibiza club hopper type?”

    true. two strong sangrias would prob put me straight out.

  74. Painhrtz says:

    Hyde – I love the Polizei, carry MP-5s, use dogs, not afraid to trample dissent. Unfortunately, they changed the color of the cars from green and white to silver and blue. Major point deductions.

    For those of you who don’t know the Germans have a national police force separate from the military. No local cops. That would fly here like a lead baloon on Jupiter.

  75. sas says:

    “The number is…
    wait for it…
    121″”

    121 is nothing. this Tiger Woods is still just a wee tot. He best just stick to gulf.

    SAS

  76. sas says:

    “Wouldn’t a better headline read, “Jobless claims are still 28% higher today than they were two years ago?”

    nonsense, then people might think twice about using the credit cards.

    gotta keep’em stupid & occupied.
    now, go back to american idol, and you middle managers out there, go back to working 60+ hrs a week, so you can drive your toyota camery.

    SAS

  77. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    Speaking of Germans.

    Check out these riot police clowns patrolling streets at an anti Obama protest. Perhaps they would be of better use on the southern border?

    What type of @ssclown joins an outfit like that?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2tKIBlTC6c

  78. Jim says:

    26. Yikes says:
    April 29, 2010 at 9:04 am
    on an upcoming trip, we have a 1 night layover in london. can anyone recommend a reasonably-priced, safe hotel in a cool area?

    We normally stay at the Union Jack Club close to Waterloo Station. That might not be an option for you. With just one overnight you might want to stay on the edge of the city somewhere. Not sure which airport you are flying in at but it is easy to catch a bus into London. You can get an Oyster Card to use the Underground but for only one day it might be cheaper to just pay as you go.

  79. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    At this point of the NJ home price correction process i shift my focus to interest rates.

    Mark my words, that is where the next significant leg down will come from.

    Where are rates going? Lets assume UP

    Ok so, For every 100 bp rise in rates, prices will crash 10-20%. In the fixed income world, that is the price sensitivity to rates or DURATION. (We wont confuse the relationship by discussing CONVEXITY, a curvelinear version of the same relationship.)

    This means mort rates at 8% creates another 30%-60% crash in prices from todays price level!

    Sure your monthly mortgage will increase to equal out the same payment as you would have gotten with low int rates – BUT THINK OF EQUITY. That is THE WEALTH that people refer to in real estate investments. DEBT IS NOT WEALTH.

  80. Mr Hyde says:

    Pain,

    The Germans might want to pull a page from the roman play book. Crush any dissent and promptly put a friendly local face in power as a puppet.

  81. Mr Hyde says:

    Veto 81

    i agree the next leg is interest rates.

  82. JJ says:

    In 1999 and 2000 when mortgages rates rose, home prices rose.

  83. Painhrtz says:

    Like Vichy France? Hyde that didn’t go over too well. Plus a strong and vibrant Germany kind of gets everyones panties in a bunch.

    During the German’s last world cup run, fans were being chastised by the European press for being to nationalistic. Thanks to the WWII austrian looney the Alamanic culture has been shamed into not showing national pride and rightly so. When you have such an anti cultural bias this is why the Germans are getting sucked into all of Europe’s woes, they are back door reparations for all the trouble they have caused in the past.

  84. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “In 1999 and 2000”

    JJ – There are more variables than int rates.

    Just think of the jump in med income and stock wealth during 99-00.

    If rates rise fast now, its the nail in the coffin for prices.

    Inflation is the wildcard, that will offset a lot of the crash if it accompanies the higher rates (and most likely will).

  85. Mr Hyde says:

    Pain,

    Come on now, I am sure the Germans would have worked it out just fine if we hadn’t interfered. Besides there is a difference when the goal is a well run financial empire versus a racially pure empire. Two very different things.

    The Germans running a successful financial empire would be good for all Europeans.

    Oh, and were did the whole reparations fiasco lead eurpoe when that was tired after WWI.

    Its the sins of the father visited onto the son.

  86. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “and most likely will”

    is my guess.

  87. Mr Hyde says:

    Veto 86

    Just think of the jump in med income and stock wealth during 99-00.<

    ???? NJ median income was essentially flat from 1990 to 99 and rose only 3% during that period from 64K in 1990 to 67K in 1999

    national median income rose about 10% from 50K in 1990 to 55K in 1999

    National

  88. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    on an upcoming trip, we have a 1 night layover in london. can anyone recommend a reasonably-priced, safe hotel in a cool area?

    There is a Hilton right outside the Paddington Train Station. Nice hotel and close to Heathrow.

  89. Painhrtz says:

    hyde – I don’t disagree on the reparations or financial side of it. I hear it at the dinner table all the time. It’s Europes issue and they always run it out there when they can. I added a unique twist to it last time I was in Belgium. The bombing and destruction of world war two allowed for a more efficient and well planned Europe to face the latter part of the 20th century. Since most industrial centers were decimated it allowed for logical planning of commercial and industrial zones. They no loger had to be square pegged in to round holes. The Belgians I was with reluctanly agreed.

    Any way, I’m off the rest of the day home inspection on the future aligator this afternoon. bye all

  90. jcer says:

    The germans would ruin europe. Listen without those Greek/Italian/Spanish/French slackers Europe wouldn’t be fun. They are always relaxed and drink tons of wine, I think they have the best deal going. Listen the fun countries always go down the crapper, so I blame the Eurozone for accepting them. They made their bed and now they’ll have to lay in it, I see a major collapse on the horizon, where the Euro might be France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the last two are shaky. Lets face it the dream of unified europe doesn’t work the cultures are too different.

  91. A.West says:

    CC,
    I recently moved to bridgewater, near Martinsville, like it so far, schools are good, taxes are high like everywhere else. Not as prestigious as Basking Ridge or Warren nearby, but you can get much better house for money, and schools perhaps just one notch below (due to more diversity in student performance). It is spread out, so neigborhoods differ depending on location. We like our elementary school better in Bridgewater vs Scotch Plains. New head of township comittee promises to be cost conscious, not sure about mayor. I think Bridgewater worth a look. I wouldn’t favor this far west if you have a daily NYC commute though there is bus and train.

  92. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “???? NJ median income was essentially flat from 1990 to 99 and rose only 3% during that period from 64K in 1990 to 67K in 1999”

    ????
    NJ Median income was up 15% from 1995 to the end of 1999. Employment was up.
    And stock indeces were up about 200-300%.

  93. Mr Hyde says:

    Jcer,

    I agree that the EU will shrink to the core nations. Perhaps the original idea of an EU comprised of two regions will come about. Perhaps something like a Northern and southern EU

  94. Final Doom says:

    mocha (29)-

    All that means is that he’s part of the crew of idiots who spawned this whole mess.

    “This is someone with an MBA in finance from a reputable university.”

  95. sas says:

    “Inflation is the wildcard, that will offset a lot of the crash if it accompanies the higher rates (and most likely will).”

    more reason to stockpile.
    and no pay taxes, as the values increase.

    barter system?
    looks like I better go back to the busy bee barter markets out on long Island.

    SAS

  96. Mr Hyde says:

    Veto,

    Its that darn nominal V Real issue again.

    12% of that income growth was infaltion, only 3% was real wage growth.

    How about a better measure for this specific discussion

    median home price/ median income

    we can also use HPI/Median income as HPI tracks median home price. You have the data for this, look at the spreadsheet we worked on together (NJRER Bubble Analysis)

    In terms of HPI/Median income, the ratio was at 5.8 in 1990, down from a high of 7.11 in 1987. It was at a low of 4.87 in 1996 and was at 5.5 in 1999.

    For comparison it was at a peak of 9.09 in 2007 and i estimate the 2009 figure to be at about 8

  97. Final Doom says:

    hyde (50)-

    My call is for a royal flush of sovereign defaults in Europe. They will roll through all countries and stop at Germany’s doorstep. At this point, whatever Germany does won’t matter and won’t get attention, since the wave of defaults will have then jumped the pond and be wiping out Japan and the rest of Asia.

    Here in the US, the bank runs and civil unrest will be well underway. Of course, at that point our new policy of print-and-repudiate will have been well established.

    Got ammo? Got shiny?

    It will indeed be fun selling $4,000 gold into a market awash in worthless fiat scrip.

  98. Final Doom says:

    Why does every fx market on the planet treat gold as money?

  99. Mr Hyde says:

    Veto,

    Here is HPI/median income in chart form from some earlier models i was playing with

    http://www.scribd.com/full/16999237?access_key=key-4seuuw0j0m8c3aypd34

  100. Mr Hyde says:

    Veto,

    You might also like this one. 30yr rates V home prices

    http://www.scribd.com/full/17774807?access_key=key-1iuiocdddvknqvf9va2r

  101. Final Doom says:

    lib (55)-

    This is the equivalent of killing the golden goose, overcooking it, picking the bones of meat, simmering the bones for stock…then, simmering the spent bones again to make a remouillage of nasty, gray animal water.

  102. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    ket, i know real v nom well.

    wage inflation is not the same thing as CPI inflation.
    home price returns is a third factor.

    median home price/ median income is not adjusted for inflation. Its adjusted for median wages.

    You said
    “NJ median income was essentially flat from 1990 to 99”

    This is not a true statement. NJ Median Income was up more than 30% during that time.

  103. Mr Hyde says:

    Doom 99

    I thin part of the game plan is probably to make sure europe goes down first. It gives more us more leverage in the game

  104. Mr Hyde says:

    Veto,

    Real adj median income was up 3% from 1990 to 1999, that is essentially flat.

  105. SG says:

    Was in FL for last 2 weeks in row for work.

    Driving around outskirts and even in Fort Lauderdale beach area, it seemed like everything is for sale. I think the only way FL can survive,

    Make Spanish first language
    Allow Green Cardto all latin americans folks who invest $ 100K to start business

    Without South American rich folks migrating to FL, I dont see much future for the state economy.

  106. Mr Hyde says:

    Veto

    wage inflation is not the same thing as CPI inflation.

    care to explain how they differ?

  107. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “care to explain how they differ?”

    Sure, wages is the median income of the population.

    CPI is a basket of goods that makes up the average household’s budget expenses.

    They are not one in the same.

  108. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “Real adj median income was up 3% from 1990 to 1999, that is essentially flat.”

    Thats much better, and a big difference.
    i can agree with it now.
    ;^)

  109. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “it seemed like everything is for sale.”

    SG, did you submit any offers to buy a condo for a dollar? Or did you not want to get stuck with the taxes?

  110. Mr Hyde says:

    Veto,

    Are you saying that you cannot use CPI to adjust wages for inflation? Are you serious?

    Do you realize that some employers use CPI to make wage adjustemnts?

    While CPI is certainly not a perfect measure it is perfectly legitimate to use it as a general deflator for both prices and wages.

    CPI is essentially a method to determine the value of the dollar relative to goods, i.e. increase or decreases in prices.

    CPI tells use in a very general term how much the value of a dollar has increased or decreased. That can be applied directly to wages.

    you are mixing terms. once again, 1$ in 1990 does not have the same value as 1$ in 1999 hence a doubling of median income over that period in nominal terms does not correlate to a doubling in purchasing power.

    econ 101

  111. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    Make, ive been seriously considering your idea to go all in on Citi.

    I think there is an 80% chance that its trading well over 7 in the next few weeks/months.

    Basically, the only thing stopping me is fear. i couldnt stomach a crash if that thing did go bust.

  112. jcer says:

    florida is old people, south americans and rednecks. The only viable economic group is the south americans, florida is dead.

  113. Anon E. Moose says:

    JCer[92];

    I dissent. They play soccer in Germany, too; they drink beer in Germany, too; but the same leads to riots in France and England.

  114. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    Ket,
    Wages and CPI are different and they are intended to measure two different things. They have two different purposess

    There are alot of things that are positively correlated (ie. dow and nikkea).

    Does not mean they are the same.

  115. NJGator says:

    Harvard Law School 3L’s Racist Email Goes National

    Every time you put something into an email, please remember that someone you send it to may hit Forward. If your email makes the case for a biological reason for racial disparities in intelligence, someone might hit Forward and send it to Black Law Student Associations across the nation.

    http://abovethelaw.com/2010/04/hls-3ls-racist-email-goes-national/

  116. meter says:

    Late to today’s party but wanted to respond to Ben’s heartfelt but logic-limited diatribe yesterday.

    BEN:
    You seem to be rehashing all the gold bashing talking points that I’ve read over the years.

    Gold and Silver are the only two metals that have every successfully circulated as money. Yes, they are rare which is one of the requirements for money to work. Other forms of money that were not rare (like salt & tobacco) resulted in inflation rates of 40000%. The metals are easily recognizable, divisible, and cannot be easily mined to affect the above ground supply. Other metals are too common to circulate as money while more rare metals like Rhodium and Platinum are heavily subject to severe fluctuations in above ground supply due to their industrial catalytic applications. Gold has relatively little use in industry, which is one of it’s primary strengths in regards to its monetary value. We won’t have any supply issues with gold because we won’t be destructively consuming it with industrial applications. Your opinion of gold being in a bubble is way off base. Gold is still 50% below it’s inflation adjusted high (and this is using the governments fraudulent measure of inflation). I find it laughable that you badmouthed real estate as an investment yet in the next paragraph try to explain how land is a good investment.

    ME:

    I’m not bashing – I’m applying logic. Gold has no intrinsic value. You still haven’t made a compelling argument other than the historical justification or the fact that it’s rare. History is out the window if TSHTF and the fact that it’s rare or unused in manufacturing is not a valid justification. Also, past performance does not guarantee future behavior. The fact that the price of gold is low relative to some other historical gold bubble doesn’t matter: it’s still bubblicious. The Dow is low relative to what it was in 2007, are equities a screaming buy too?

    To your point about real estate: I badmouthed housing and suggested buying arable land or land with water rights. There’s a distinction.

    BEN:

    “Gold as a store of value seems to be yet another human construct that has no place in reality”

    I believe you should be referring to paper money there. The truth hurts, gold has stood the test of time in holding its value. This is reality. You seem to be writing your own reality.

    ME: I agree that paper money is a terrible store of value. I’m looking for alternatives and at one point thought gold might be the answer – until I actually thought about it for five minutes. The gold market will utterly collapse once people wake up and realize how much fraud is involved.

    BEN:

    “It has little more inherent value than fiat currency, other than the fact that one can make fancy trinkets with it. If that’s your rationale you might as well invest in emeralds or diamonds.”

    Here again, you fail to recognize that you cannot counterfeit gold, unlike fiat currency. Furthermore, you do not understand the distinction between gold and diamonds. Diamonds are a market that has been controlled by a monopoly for a century. But, in the end, diamonds are simply made of carbon, which is not rare and can easily be counterfeited using modern technology.

    As far as rather owning a gun instead of gold, I’ve heard this for 5 straight years. Is it really that hard to own both? You don’t have to choose you know?

    ME: You cannot counterfeit gold? BWAHAHAHAHAHAH! You keep thinking that, tungsten boy! Also, please make sure you load up on gold certificates and ‘safely store’ your gold in an offshore vault. I’d wager real money that you’ll never ever see whatever gold you’ve ‘bought’ unless you physically possess it.

  117. Final Doom says:

    Just told another wiseguy who wants to pull a “flopper” scam to f-off.

    We have entered the endtimes.

  118. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Obama continues trend of trying to fill federal bureaucracy with “true believer” community activist types.

    This is the official state bio of Sarah Raskin, one of his picks for the Federal Reserve.

    http://www.dllr.state.md.us/finance/frcomm.shtml

    I have had dealings with her department, and her pedigree (ivory tower liberal elite) and her industry “experience” (conveniently omitted but it seems to consist of community activism), and her fluff tenure, lacking any gravitas, at what I consider to be a wanna-be activist (and largely irrelevant) state bank regulator, tells me that Obama continues to substitute ideology for experience.

    Essentially, she is Van Jones with a better education and without the hammer and sickle tatoo.

  119. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “a doubling of median income over that period in nominal terms does not correlate to a doubling in purchasing power”

    Kettle. If you want to talk about ‘inflation adjusted purchasing power’ than say ‘inflation adjusted purchasing power’.

    “Median Income” is not “inflation adjusted purchasing power”.

  120. Juice Box says:

    Veto – re: All in on Citi? Are you nuts?

    Are you are forgetting the Financial legislation in play?

    The banks are due for a downgrade from the rating agencies if the legislation passes as it.

    Democrats killed the Nelson provision on Tuesday that that would have helped all the derivatives players from taking a big financial hit to their portfolio of derivatives.

    All three major ratings firms said they were following the regulatory-change legislation, and had no plans to downgrade banks before Congress acts, but if this passes as it all the banks are done for Deriviaties will be regulated, require tranparencey and margin. It’s retroactive too. The cost
    of borrowing will go up for the banks, way up.

  121. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “some employers use CPI to make wage adjustemnts. econ 101”

    Hyde, do they refer to median income as cpi in those hs text books you borrow?

  122. Anon E. Moose says:

    Germany cont’d:

    When visiting spouse’s family in Germany almost 3 yrs ago we spent a couple of days with her uncle in a winery village south of Frankfurt. It happened to be the week of their annual harvest festival. You bought a wine glass from the town for 2€, and trolled the booths set up by the dozen or so wineries. For 1€ you got a short pour of anything they produced. There were typical summer carnival rides for the kids, ice cream, polka bands.

    On the walk back to his house we stopped and ate in one of the town’s beer gardens that sat in and looked over the vineyards.

    We went back that evening, bought a couple of bottles of the what we particularly liked, and drank them and talked and sang until the fireworks started.

    We took a six-pack from one place home with us. Winemaker was very pleased to be ‘exporting’ his procduct to America.

    Fun time.

  123. beanbear says:

    Gator – sorry to hear about Harvard, but I can’t imagine the buyer (by the time the reno’s are done) would come out that far under $600K, perhaps…

    We’d been following a house on Bay (very well done, but too much so for the area + that specific house), but really didn’t like the location (too busy, hospital, etc.), but apparently someone bid in the “5”s for it…

  124. Mr Hyde says:

    Gator 117

    a biological reason for racial disparities in intelligence

    Whats so horrible about that? Its all genetics and differnet races have diffenet genetic predispositions. of course you cant use that on the individual level as it doesnt directly scale to that level.

    Its Ok to say one race might be on average taller then another or have a different skin tone, but not that there might actually cognitive and behavioral effects as well?

    What makes us so different from dogs, who we regularly breed for this exact purpose.

  125. House Whine says:

    #57- CC and 93- We like Bridgewater a lot.
    The taxes are reasonable, at least so far they are according to our friends who have lived there for many years. Generally, you have easy access to either 287 or 78 and there is the Bridgewater Mall for shopping.
    There isn’t really a town center, but that’s more the norm these days anyway. I am not sure about the school ratings these days but I think they are at least above-average. Certain parts of Bridgewater I would avoid only because I dislike driving in winter weather on some of those steep hills, but that’s just me. The main branch of the Somerset County library system is in Bridgewater and it’s a nice facility. Hope this helps.

  126. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “Are you are forgetting the Financial legislation in play?”

    Yes juice, good point.
    but im focused on the outcome.
    how are they going to allow regulation and rating agencies to slam citi’s stock while its still on our watch?
    this will be interesting.

  127. JJ says:

    And to all Irish People with Red Hair.

    NJGator says:
    April 29, 2010 at 11:56 am
    Harvard Law School 3L’s Racist Email Goes National

    Every time you put something into an email, please remember that someone you send it to may hit Forward. If your email makes the case for a biological reason for racial disparities in intelligence, someone might hit Forward and send it to Black Law Student Associations across the nation.

    http://abovethelaw.com/2010/04/hls-3ls-racist-email-goes-national/

  128. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [120] me

    I stand corrected with respect to Raskin’s experience. My jamil-like reaction was colored by my prior experiences with Maryland DLLR, and I read into what I thought was a glaring omission in her bio.

    I was able to drill down some more on Raskin’s prior experience, and I would consider it relevant and probably valuable for a bank regulator (though not for a member of the Fed board).

    I don’t understand why her state bio buries it as it sends the wrong signal (suggesting that her experience was gained from outside the system) but the facts are what they are.

    Guess I reflexively thought this was another Van Jones type of appointment. In sum, I still think it is about ideology, much like Mary Smith or Gordon Liu’s appointments, but my prior characterization of her experience before the DLLR was incorrect.

  129. Mr Hyde says:

    Gator 117

    I guess i am racist. I see why some wouldnt like the e-mail but that e-mail does not strike me as an attack on a specific race. All the same trends pointe dout in that e-mail suggest asians are on average more intelligent then caucasians.

    So are the Asians racists againat caucasians?

  130. SG says:

    SG, did you submit any offers to buy a condo for a dollar? Or did you not want to get stuck with the taxes?

    I am not expert in florida locales. Also, I don’t have much need to any houses there. I saw huge signs for townhouses at $160K or something like that. I am sure, if you put cash, one can probably get it for $100K or even less.

    On other thought, I was thinking, why the heck I am living in NJ, where taxes are 10K a year. One can probably buy decent house for 10K a year in most part of US.

  131. Libtard says:

    Final Doom,

    And not a single response from any of those cowards. Should I be surprised?

  132. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [126] Hyde

    “a biological reason for racial disparities in intelligence”

    You do realize that this is considered a taboo subject now (look at what happened to Larry Summers and the author of the Bell Curve).

    In fact, in the future, merely bringing up the subject will be seditious speech.

    My advice is to bury it with a shovel, and bury the shovel.

  133. chicagofinance says:

    ket: Just moved to Germany and take your fcukiung guns with you n’kay?

    My bone with you has never been that you had the intelligence of a high school janitor, just the common sense……

    Mr Hyde says:
    April 29, 2010 at 12:08 pm
    Gator 117 a biological reason for racial disparities in intelligence
    Whats so horrible about that? Its all genetics and differnet races have diffenet genetic predispositions. of course you cant use that on the individual level as it doesnt directly scale to that level.

    Its Ok to say one race might be on average taller then another or have a different skin tone, but not that there might actually cognitive and behavioral effects as well?

    What makes us so different from dogs, who we regularly breed for this exact purpose.

  134. Mr Hyde says:

    Veto 123

    what is the definition of median income:

    From BLS Median income is the amount which divides the income distribution into two equal groups, half having income above that amount, and half having income below that amount.

    Are you being intentionally obtuse or what?

    CPI is a time series price index. Yoou use the time series price index to adjust prices in order to remove inflationary growth trends from the target data series.

    If we use your definition, then you would tell me that my annual sales over a period of time have increased as along as the nominal trend is increasing, even though the adj REAL trend is flat. try running that by any sales group and see how quick you get thrown out the door.

  135. safeashouses says:

    Why all the anti-euro? I’ve found a new favorite news anchor. Warning: is mesmerizing, even though I understand very little french. Is her show on Comcast?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOiA8z2xlbo&feature=related

  136. meter says:

    “Why does every fx market on the planet treat gold as money?”

    The better question: why does every fx market on the planet treat money as money?

  137. Final Doom says:

    lib (133)-

    I’m sure, however, that either you or I could go to baristanet and create a post on this topic that would be moderated within minutes.

    Welcome to the end of days. You are only free inasmuch as you agree and comply with the secretariat.

  138. Final Doom says:

    The real shame of the current situation is seeing that we’ve reached a critical mass of sheeple who will actively participate in their own destruction.

  139. Mr Hyde says:

    CHifi,

    I have no issues with anyones individual race, religion or nationality. I base my opinion of people based on individual experiences. I know plenty of idiots of all races and religions, as well as extremely intelligent PhD’s of all races and religions.

    The trends exist on a population scale but on their own do not increase or decrease the value or abilities of an individual.

    If you find the trends so offensive do you feel its also racists against Caucasians since the same trends suggest Asians are smarter then Caucasians?

  140. safeashouses says:

    #31 NJgator,

    We were under contract earlier this month. Our inspection turned up some nastiness, including black mold.

    I really think both Clot and skep-tic are right. Houses in good locations in towns with good school systems and you can get to NYC by public transportation under an hour are booming. Same town in a bad location, or other towns, even towns with good schools, are stagnant or worse.

  141. Juice Box says:

    re: #126 – Veto the floor debate in the Senate starts this afternoon. If the banks have to now post margin on existing derivatives, it is game over for their ratings.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/In-financial-regs-debate-apf-348973220.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

  142. Final Doom says:

    safe (142)-

    In the end, there will be no “good” towns. Every town in NJ will be dragged into the muck. It will take decades for recovery once it all goes to black.

    Oblivion, dead ahead.

  143. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “Are you saying that you cannot use CPI to adjust wages for inflation? Are you serious?”

    Hyde You are making a big mistake by assuming this. Think about it. If Wage inflation always matches cpi inflation, then inflation adjusted purchasing power would always be the same. Thats not true.

    Its very important to differentiate between these two and it concerns me that you are overlooking its importance.

    Think about it with the effects of compounding over 10-20-30 years. The difference between cost of goods and wages could be huge. Even though wages could go up and we could become poorer and poorer. This is why i say you are confusing terms.

    Dont overlook this effect and assume they are the same thing.

    I think this is why you have such a difficult time explaining inflation adjusted prices.
    This is the reason why Inflation is so dangerous and yet you are missing that! ie If the price of bread goes up by 10% per year but wages are going up by 5% per year, you are losing purchasing power. However, if bread is going up by 10% but wages are going up by 10% there is no loss in purch power.

    Its essential that you understand it. Im sorry, i dint realize that you didnt know about this.

  144. Final Doom says:

    juice (143)-

    JPMs derivatives book stands at 88 trillion. That’s gonna be a helluva margin demand.

  145. Final Doom says:

    Perhaps some agency will hold Dimon prisoner against their 88 trill in derivatives.

  146. Shore Guy says:

    Gator,

    What is your beef with DE?

  147. Mr Hyde says:

    Veto,

    Wage inflation always matches cpi inflation,

    I agree, they do not always match. From everything i have read on the subject its an ongoing debate as to the correlation, as it seems to change over time and in differing economic conditions.

    You can also get into PPI and other indexes, but CPI gives an approximate adjustment.

    That is also why i suggested a homeprice/HPI to income ratio as it avoids the adjustment issue

  148. Juice Box says:

    Doom derivitaves have always been a time bomb the fuse just got shorter is all.

  149. Mr Hyde says:

    Veto

    <i.This is the reason why Inflation is so dangerous and yet you are missing that! ie If the price of bread goes up by 10% per year but wages are going up by 5% per year, you are losing purchasing power. However, if bread is going up by 10% but wages are going up by 10% there is no loss in purch power.

    that is the exact point i was making yesterday that you ignored.

  150. Shore Guy says:

    “derivatives ”

    With two votes on the Hill and the stroke of a pen down the street, the USG could invalidate all derivatives. Sure some folks would lose the small up-front money they put in but, they are big boys and girls and they nearly tanked the nation; they will get over it. Besides, they can take their $3,000/yr. carryover losses from now until whenever.

  151. relo says:

    137: Merci. And mercy.

  152. Final Doom says:

    Who said the PPT had been disbanded?

    The idiot game all lit up green today…

  153. Final Doom says:

    “Last year I wrote about how the leaders in America were essentially fiddling as Rome burned. This fiddling has become an all out dance party and many investors have been dragged onto the floor one more time due to money printing, an inherent desire to be optimistic, a plethora of propaganda and rising asset prices. However, this is the last dance folks. Our corporate and political leaders have destroyed us. Chuck Prince would be proud.” -Mike Krieger

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/michael-krieger-last-dance

  154. meter says:

    More on gold from Seeking Alpha (from 2008, but no less relevant):

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/75325-gold-as-an-investment-think-again

    Love this Warren Buffet quote:

    “It gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.”

    Another quote:

    “Jon Nadler of Kitco said in an article about a month ago that the bugs who see $5000 gold are expecting something so bad that they are better off buying lead, for bullets, because that will be far more valuable than gold.”

  155. Anon E. Moose says:

    Shore[152];

    Right there with you. A CDS is either insurance, or an illegal bet.

    It’s not insurance because A) Wall Street swore on a stack of Korans that ‘it wasn’t insurance — and BTW get the hell away from us with your state insurnace regulators’; and B) so many of the parties had no insurable interest in the underlying instrumetns that were the subject of the CDS — you can’t just take out a life insurance policy on some schlub walking down the street – you must have an insurable interest in the individual or thing being insured.

    Since its not insurance, its an illegal bet. Illegal gambling contracts are UNENFORCEABLE in court. Work it out amongst yourselves… BIG BOYS.

  156. Final Doom says:

    More from the Krieger piece in #156:

    “The missing component is that the deflationists by and large haven’t figured out that the new reserve currency is gold. This becomes very clear when one watches the recent debate between Jim Grant and David Rosenberg. Grant argues that long-term treasuries are a horrific investment right now (I agree 100%) while Rosenberg thinks they are attractive. I respect Mr. Rosenberg and I think he does fantastic work but it wasn’t lost on me that he had no good response when Mr. Grant posed to him the question about what if the entire monetary system itself changes. This is the key point. The Central Bankers and their inept political allies will be the last to figure out that the entire paper ponzi they created and nurtured is falling apart all around them.”

  157. Final Doom says:

    moose (158)-

    DiNallo said over two years ago (I think it’s been two years) that all this derivative/CDS crap is illegal gambling.

    It all fell on deaf ears then, and it will continue to do so. Somebody statnds to either make a killing, destroy competitors or both…so the band plays on.

  158. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    Doom:

    The market goes up for 2 major reasons:

    1. 0% interest rates from now until 2020
    2. Worldwide bailout thanks to derivatives and weak gubbmint politicians who could not make a difficult decision if terrorists had guns to their kid’s heads.

    Your post from Zero Hedge is 100% correct. This is the last dance (bubbles). Make some dough and get the hell out when it all comes down. When it happens, who knows? My guess is 2012-2013.

  159. Ben says:

    “I’m not bashing – I’m applying logic. Gold has no intrinsic value.”

    This is not logic. Gold has no industrial value. It has intrinsic value. They are not the same thing. The market, which has a more relevant opinion than you do has proved your so called logic false time and time again and is still doing so today.

    “Also, past performance does not guarantee future behavior.”

    No doubt. But this proves nothing. Gold is still going up and you have no clue as to why.

    “The gold market will utterly collapse once people wake up and realize how much fraud is involved.”

    You’re wrong here. The price of gold will go up once people realize how much fraud is involved because we have too many promises for gold and not enough gold to redeem it.

    “The fact that the price of gold is low relative to some other historical gold bubble doesn’t matter: it’s still bubblicious.”

    Bubbles don’t involve multiple year long pullbacks throughout a 10 year period. Bubbles move parabolic and in 1 direction. Bubbles crash straight down. Can gold go into a bubble? Yes. Is it even close? No.

    “The Dow is low relative to what it was in 2007, are equities a screaming buy too?”

    Are you seriously comparing being down 15% to 50-75%? And, no, I don’t recommend buying the Dow now or any time soon.

    “You cannot counterfeit gold? BWAHAHAHAHAHAH! You keep thinking that, tungsten boy!”

    Now you are just being childish. Putting tungsten in the middle of a gold bar is cald “debasement”, not countereiting.

    “You keep thinking that, tungsten boy! Also, please make sure you load up on gold certificates and ’safely store’ your gold in an offshore vault. I’d wager real money that you’ll never ever see whatever gold you’ve ‘bought’ unless you physically possess it.”

    You seem to think issuing paper promises for gold is counterfeiting the gold itself. Congrats, you just successfully made the case for actually owning physical gold. Now watch it go up in price and I’ll be here telling you how wrong you were a year from now just like I’ve done to others when they were rehashing the same things you did when Gold was $600 or $900.

  160. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “that is the exact point i was making yesterday that you ignored.”

    Hyde,
    It needed to be explained properly.

  161. Confused in NJ says:

    Visa Cuts Swipe Fees In Europe, Raises Them In America

    Despite a recent study that found swipe fees are stalling the creation of nearly a quarter million U.S. jobs, Visa raised its debit card interchange rate for American retailers to .95 percent plus $.20 per transaction in April, according to the Retail Industry Leaders Association. In contrast, Visa Europe announced Monday that it would be capping transaction fees at 0.2 percent for the next four years.

    A spokesperson for Visa, Inc. said the average Visa Debit transaction fee rose by less than 4 percent.

    “Most of Visa’s U.S. debit rates have not changed,” she said. “Visa, Inc., did recently make a variety of program and interchange modifications to make digital currency even more convenient for consumers and merchants and to facilitate continued growth for Visa and its clients.”

    Interchange fees, which are imposed by the card association and issuing banks to process the credit and debit card transactions, essentially function as a hidden tax on consumers. U.S. banks raked in more than $48 billion in interchange fees in 2008 alone, an amount that has tripled since 2001. These “swipe fees” are particularly harmful to small businesses, which often face higher rates than larger businesses.

    Many countries around the world, including Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the European Union, have already taken action against excessive hidden interchange fees, but the U.S. has yet to pass significant debit reform. The House Judiciary Committee is holding a hearing today on Capitol Hill to discuss legislation that would require Visa Inc. and MasterCard Worldwide to negotiate interchange rates with merchants, with the U.S. Department of Justice overseeing those negotiations.

    “While most Western economies have taken action to rein in excessive debit card swipe fees, here in the U.S., the credit and debit card industry continues to hurt retailers and consumers by setting rates indiscriminately and raising rates at will,” said John Emling, senior vice president for government affairs at Retail Industry Leaders Association, in a statement. “Without interchange reforms in the U.S., reform in Europe means the credit card industry will look to American retailers and consumers to make up lost revenue. As Congress debates comprehensive financial reform, now is the time to bring appropriate oversight and transparency to interchange fees.”

    A Visa, Inc., spokesperson condemned the legislation for “unnecessarily stepping in between business entities and picking favorites among its constituents; creating a system that is inherently anti-consumer and pro-retailer.”

    “Visa welcomes the interest shown in electronic payments by the House Judiciary Committee. We hope this hearing helps Members see the harm that this overreaching legislation will cause if retailers are allowed to disrupt a payment system that has served everyone well for over 50 years,” the spokesperson said.

    Emling says he’s worried that if Congress does not act quickly, Visa will continue to raise its rates on American retailers.

    “The U.S. is fast becoming the only industrialized nation in the world that allows our own banks to stifle business growth by indiscriminately setting rates far above the cost associated with the service provided,” he said

  162. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “Who said the PPT had been disbanded?”

    Me. but it was just an excersize in reverse logic.
    I was trying to reason my way through an alter-ego version of these financial markets, where everything made perfect sense.
    And then when everything aligned perfectly using this method, i knew it would never happen so i rejected it and went all in on leveraged S&P futures.

  163. Confused in NJ says:

    Bill Clinton Sees ‘More Immigrants’ As A Way To Reduce Deficit

    Former President Bill Clinton enthusiastically weighed into the blistering national debate on immigration today with a resounding assertion that America needs more immigrants — not fewer — to ensure its long-term fiscal future.

    At a symposium on deficit reduction today (see my earlier story), Clinton said that one key to avoiding massive debt is to maintain a good ratio between people paying into the system, and those receiving payouts (through such programs as Social Security.)

    That means more jobs and more people working, he said. “Which to me means more immigrants.”

    Clinton said he supports immigration reform as proposed by President Obama or as supported by Sen. John McCain before he changed his mind.

    Clinton spoke glowingly of the immigrant experience in the United States. “We’ve got somebody from everywhere here, and they do well,” he said.

    And looking at the overall budget numbers, comparing money in to money out, “I don’t think there’s any alternative for us but increasing immigration,” he said. “I just don’t see any palatable way out of this unless that’s part of the strategy.”

    Clinton didn’t mention it, but it’s not just legal immigrants who contribute to the plus side of the Treasury’s balance sheet. In fact, undocumented immigrants are even more lucrative for the government, particularly Social Security. Many undocumented workers have payroll taxes automatically withheld from their wages, but because they use fake numbers, never collect the benefits.

    Slick Willie wrong again.

  164. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “the bugs who see $5000 gold are expecting something so bad that they are better off buying lead, for bullets”

    meter, this explains the runup in silver though.
    The doomer bears will be able to kill warewolfs when the society collapses and we are finally lving in a world similar to that found in a marvel comic book.

  165. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    Mayor Bloomberg slams Arizona’s anti-immigrant law: ‘We are committing national suicide’

    “This is not good for the country. I don’t agree with it,” he said. “We love immigrants here.”

    “We have to get real about the 12 million undocumented here,” the mayor said. “We’re not going to deport them. Give them permanent status. Don’t make them citizens unless they can qualify, but give them permanent status and let’s get on with this.”

    Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2010/04/29/2010-04-29_its_national_suicide_mikes_grim_view_if_immig_reform_mess_isnt_fixed.html#ixzz0mVoRzXuY

  166. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    Obama To Wall Street:
    “I Do Think At A Certain Point You’ve Made Enough Money”

    Juice, Is this the precursor?

  167. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    WASHINGTON (AP) – A U.S. military official says the Navy had a close encounter with an Iranian surveillance jet last week in the Gulf of Oman.

  168. Ben says:

    Rofl, he quoted John Nadler on gold. Get a better source instead of a shill from Kitco.

    Meanwhile, care to explain why Buffett, a man who bashed gold decided to buy a third of the world’s silver in 1998?

    Care to explain why guys like Eric Sprott, Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, George Soros, John Paulson, Paul Tudor Jones are all long gold? These guys are the greatest investors of our time and they all hold significant positions in the yellow metal.

  169. Ben says:

    The doomsday scenario people envision with the country collapses is not going to happen. If hyperinflation hits, it’s the end of the dollar, not the economy and the nation.

  170. Ben says:

    correction, “country collapsing”

  171. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Clot,

    Quantative Easing is the end game. I just think there’ll be a few more stock market collapses before any full scale hyperinflation. Until then there’ll be plenty of opportunities to by Gold. There’s plenty of speculators in that market that are going to have to sell once they have to deleverage again.

  172. Mr hyde says:

    Veto

    would it make you happier if I used the st Louis Fed’s ECI data to adjust incomes?

  173. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “John Paulson, Paul Tudor Jones are all long gold”

    Ben, If its a hedge fund, you dont know when or by how much they are long, short or neutral. Adn you cant go by what they are telling the markets.

  174. make money says:

    I have become interested in why “imminent end of the world” thinking is so common through the ages and why it is so seductive.

    It may be that men beyond a certain age ( 50?) start sensing the finiteness of their remaining years on earth. It is then comforting to imagine the world will end as well!

    Also after about 50yrs of age for most men there is realization of a decay in physical power, a sense of limits, a loss of dreams. Its easy to translate into imagining the world is decaying, the youth are not like we were at that age etc etc!

    I have seen quotes from 300BC decrying the loss of moral standards, the decay of society and the imminent collapse of the world – by 50+ year old philosophers

  175. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    175 – Hyde, frankly i dont care if you use the price of hogs balls in the EU to calculate inflation.

    As long as you represent it for what it is, we can continue to carry on intellegent conversations about it.

    How about this:
    CS NY Metro Home Price as a % of Hog Balls spot prices.
    What does that show?
    Are we over or undervalued since 1998?

  176. make money says:

    The doomsday scenario people envision with the country collapses is not going to happen. If hyperinflation hits, it’s the end of the dollar, not the economy and the nation.

    Ben,

    Hyperinflation destroys capital and the economy. Everyone defaults in real term and everyone becomes poor in real terms.

    Name one country who emerged within a couple of years after hyperinflation?

  177. yo'me says:

    If hyperinflation hits, it’s the end of the dollar

    The dollar is a world currency.Prices goes up in the US it will be a world wide event.What currency will replace the dollar?No nation will be stupid to go back to the gold standard.In an economic crisis having the currency pegged with gold prevents you from printing useless paper.Right now the dollar is the gold standard.Currencies have to based to its value.

  178. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    Make, Interesting thought.
    Perhaps its wishful thinking.

    Clearly men werent made to live past 50. Thats when all the hair falls out and everything starts to shrivel.

    Look at john for example, he cant even keep his tongue off the floor when he sees any girl between the age of 20 and 30!

  179. yo'me says:

    The fed has the ability to make the dollar stronger in an inflation to make goods cheaper at the same time devalue the dollar when there is deflation,which is what we see now.Dollar is equal to the power of the Gold standard.

  180. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    **** WARNING: BAIT POST: STAND BACK ****

    Ben, the thing i like most about gold is that in all its history, it never goes down in price. Only up.
    Ya know?

  181. Mr Hyde says:

    I am guessing that Greece isnt going to accept Germany’s austerity demands

    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE63S17H20100429?type=marketsNews

  182. Mr Hyde says:

    Veto,

    I am not trying to misrepresent any thing. If i have done so it was unintentional.

    Does COMEX tract the spot price of Hog Balls? I cant seem to find it on their site. ;)

  183. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    Did you see that stealth space weapon that hyde posted here the other day that uses lasers from outer space to shoot nukes with no radiation???

    Well. Thats what is backing a large portion of our currency.

    The new gold standard.

  184. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Ket,

    Oh, you mean this deal won’t get done?

  185. Mr Hyde says:

    Veto,

    How about we consider DJIA returns V Kg of blow annually imported.

  186. homeboken says:

    I am long Hog Ball futures with a $4.00 strike, don’t f$ck up my trade veto by comparing my balls to housing.

  187. Juice Box says:

    re#184 -Those Greeks are too much they get Christmas and Easter Bonuses and their ugly fat unmarried daughters get pensions as well.

  188. Mr Hyde says:

    From my Greece link

    Cuts were also aimed at Greece’s system of public wage allowances, which often include generous extra pay for activities such as using computers or getting to work on time.

    Why dont NJ state employees have such productive benefits yet?

  189. Mr Hyde says:

    Boken

    careful,

    I hear that there is a bubble in rocky mountain oysters. Hog balls might have some secondary exposure there.

  190. Juice Box says:

    re: #169 – Veto

    “I Do Think At A Certain Point You’ve Made Enough Money”

    Sounds like a fund-raising effort for November.

  191. relo says:

    193: Ball contagion!

  192. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    Homeboken
    ha.
    i bet a good argument can be made for hog balls being the original currency, even way before gold was found.

  193. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “If you think about it, Hog Balls are a store of value, hard to counterfeit, edible, in short supply and never go down in price.
    I see the price going to 3,000 per oz by next year.”

    Paul Tudor Jones

  194. meter says:

    It’s adorable that Ben is so darned *convinced* that substituting one proxy form of trading (currency) for all others makes sense.

    If currencies collapse, that should do wonders for civilization’s trust in proxy ‘value’ stores. Please take video of yourself buying something, anything in gold chips. By the way, where are you storing your vast horde, Ben? Australia?

    If the dollar collapses you load up on gold and I’ll load up on oil. We’ll see what’s what.

  195. Al Gore says:

    Oil is a reasonable play based on devaluation. Why put all your eggs in one basket?

    The end result is 30 to 50 percent dollar devaluation. All currencies fall vs gold. Inflation continues then debt repudiation followed by deflationary collapse and war. Once you are fully ready you will have minimum exposure to US dollar denominated assets.Most of us in homes will take a bath.

  196. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    Dealmaking and strong corporate earnings reports also provided fresh evidence that the U.S. economy is healing.

    Hewlett-Packard Co. said late Wednesday it is buying smart phone maker Palm Inc. in an all-cash deal worth $1.4 billion. Acquisitions are a sign that the economy is recovering and companies are comfortable spending cash to build their businesses.

    “Business are in a very strong position financially,” said Doug Lockwood, chief investment officer at Cornerstone Wealth Management in Auburn, Ind. Companies have built up big cash reserves that can not only go toward deals, but also eventually to hire back workers, Lockwood said.

    Companies including Motorola, Time Warner Cable and Starwood Hotels & Resorts reported earnings that topped analysts’ expectations, as have many other companies that announced first-quarter results in recent weeks.

    “It just seems like the market is moving and moving and nothing is going to get in its way,” said Steve Stahler, president of the Stahler Group Inc. in Baton Rouge, La.

    Over the past two days, the Dow has recovered most of its 213-point loss it posted on Tuesday in response to growing concerns about European countries’ debt problems. Some analysts said Tuesday that investors were overreacting to the situation in Europe.

  197. SG says:

    Clot – Seems like I found a good pal for you.

    Press TV-On the edge with Max Keiser-Wall Street Fraud

  198. meter says:

    “Care to explain why guys like Eric Sprott, Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, George Soros, John Paulson, Paul Tudor Jones are all long gold? These guys are the greatest investors of our time and they all hold significant positions in the yellow metal.”

    This is the dumbest defense of all time. I’m sure at some point they were long the Dow too – that doesn’t make equities a great investment in the here and now, does it?

    I’m not arguing that gold can’t or won’t rise on the exchanges. Buying gold is gambling, much like buying any commodity. I am arguing that it’s no better a *store of value* than a dollar. Probably worse as there are storage/theft prevention/counterfeit/transaction costs of which you seem blissfully ignorant.

  199. Jamal Van Jones says:

    Gold as a hedge against dollar decline?

    http://www.chartingstocks.net/2009/09/chart-of-the-us-dollar-1973-2009/

    Take a look at what happened to dollar from 1985 – 1995 and compare it to the gold price.

  200. CC says:

    Thanks A.West and Whinehouse for your input. Isnt an hour and half commute to NYC from Bridgewater by train? I am going to have to look more into the map details.

    Is one required to hand in a copy of your pre-approval to your realtor? I have never heard of this. The realtor who showed me a couple of houses in Wayne wants a copy.

    Thanks guys!

  201. meter says:

    Al Gore:

    “All currencies fall vs gold.”

    Please explain why you think this. Again, I ask what is it you think you will be able to buy with a useless commodity if and when the world economies take a tumble?

    A serious question:

    The dollar gets trashed and you’re still living here in the US. You produce something from the sweat of your brow, whatever it may be: vegetables from a garden, auto repair, whatever.

    You’re going to take gold in exchange? From whom?

    Also, if you’re holding gold, what the h3ll are you planning to do/buy with it?

  202. meter says:

    @203, sure, and now take a look at the Euro over the last ten years. Or oil.

    All better investments than US dollars OR gold.

  203. Mr Hyde says:

    Meter

    I hear Hog balls were widely used as currency in both the argentinian economic crisis of 99 and the 1998 russian currency crisis.

  204. meter says:

    Which would you rather have owned for the past 30 years, Dow stocks or gold?

    http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2008/5/2/ak_resize.png

  205. Juice Box says:

    Gold, oil, stocks, bonds, hog nuts sounds pretty diversified to me.

  206. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [157] meter

    I largely agree with meter, but also cannot ignore the herd mentality and the obvious investment potential.

    For me, physical creates more problems than it solves, and illiquidity is a concern. I have small, hedge positions in GLD and SLV. They are to the upside with reasonably tight stops to protect the investment and a reasonable gain. I also have limit order sells in place should it reach a level I consider frothy. Not a pig, do not want to get slaughtered.

    I also have a hedge position in other metals, notably lead and brass. There is no question that these will hold value in a SHTF event. And if the world doesn’t end, I have a good time at the range.

  207. Al Gore says:

    Meter, its a mobile store of wealth. I’m playing the coming collapse under the guidance of Argentinians who understand well the implications of devaluation via bank holidays ans IMF austerity. Silver or beer would be a barter item not gold. Storing the value of labor in federal reserve notes is a death sentence.

  208. Jamal Van Jones says:

    @203, sure, and now take a look at the Euro over the last ten years. Or oil.

    I was agreeing with you. During 1985-1995, the dollar fell and gold also fell.

  209. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    The NJ Real Estate, Ammo, and Bizarre Commodities Report.

  210. NJGator says:

    Bean 125 – No regrets. That place needed a ton of work and we decided to let someone else blow their brains out over it. Funny thing is we were very unmotivated bidders, although I am sure we were not presented as such to the other party. I will enjoy seeing how much extra they were able to get the other party to go.

    Re the house on Bay, I am very familiar with it. We never looked inside due to the location, but I did look at the pics online. It sat forever. I believe our realtor was the one who finally sold it.

  211. NJGator says:

    Hyde 126 – I make no comments on the statement. Just find it amusing that someone who was smart enough to get into HLS could be so dumb as to not anticipate that putting that into writing would cause huge problems for them.

  212. meter says:

    @212: Jamal – My bad!

  213. chicagofinance says:

    Mr Hyde says:
    April 29, 2010 at 12:24 pm
    CHifi, If you find the trends so offensive do you feel its also racists against Caucasians since the same trends suggest Asians are smarter then Caucasians?

    ket: you are hopeless lost; you don’t even understand what offends me….I take issue with failing to understand that making polarizing statements about hot button issues is purely counterproductive…..ultimately what should be measured is not intelligence; but rather effectiveness in business and societal settings.

    At the end of the day, trying to discern causation from factual or anecdotal sources is rendered irrelevant, and whether traits are inherited or learned is irrelevant.

    Your lack of circumspection and finesse in this area parallels your comments on other subjects……

  214. NJGator says:

    Shore 148 – I form my opinions mainly from my interactions with co-workers down there. Feel free to email me offline, if you’d like….but take what I say on this matter with a grain of salt.

  215. Yikes says:

    who would do something like this? do we need them on this planet? what purpose do they serve?

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/30/nyregion/30newark.html?hp

    Natasha Aeriel said she was lying on the ground, trying to follow the orders given by a group of attackers, when suddenly “somebody had their knee on my back, pulled my hair up, and was trying to chop my neck off with a machete.”

    She said: “I guess the knife was dull, because I just felt banging. But then I saw a bunch of blood.” Screaming, she pushed the man off her back and tried to leave, hearing gunshots — the sounds of her brother and two friends being killed — and then one of the attackers shot her, the bullet entering just behind her left ear.

    She said she tried repeatedly to get to her feet, crawled a short distance, and “then I’d fall in a pool of blood.” She finally blacked out.

  216. meter says:

    “Meter, its a mobile store of wealth. I’m playing the coming collapse under the guidance of Argentinians who understand well the implications of devaluation via bank holidays ans IMF austerity. Silver or beer would be a barter item not gold. Storing the value of labor in federal reserve notes is a death sentence.”

    All fair points, except the first premise which in my opinion is taken for granted and I’m not sure will always be true, especially if currencies around the world tumble. Yes, gold will be mobile, but I’m not sure it will retain its ‘value’ – value being a somewhat subjective construct.

    In 1978 a Sony Walkman had value. Today it’s useless.

  217. chicagofinance says:

    hopeless = hopelessly

  218. NJGator says:

    Lower Wages, Lack of Job Opportunities Means More Americans Delaying ‘Adulthood’

    Despite living in an age of iPads and hybrid cars, young Americans are more like the young adults of the early 1900s than the baby boom generation: They are living at home longer, are financially insecure and are making lower wages.

    Indeed, a new study points out that a 22-year-old of today might have much more in common with his or her grandfather or great-grandfather than their own parents, although the reasons for this prolonged journey to adulthood differ from Americans of 100 years ago. And one huge difference between 2010 and 1910: young people today are being supported financially by their parents, instead of helping to support their parents as they might have in the early 20th century.

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/04/100427101217.htm

  219. Mr Hyde says:

    CHifi,

    I was being intentionally inflammatory with my inti ail comments on the matter. no one bit but you

  220. relo says:

    219: Clearly, Newark needs more bike paths.

  221. make money says:

    Meter,

    I’m sitting on Shiny since 2005.and kept buying dips. All physical.

    Name one asset class that has outperformed shiny since.

    Dow is now worth 10 ounces. in 2005 it was 20.

    RE is a joke. This is coming from guys like clot and me. I’m getting ready to let the lender swallow some of my RE.

    Oil is flat since 2005.

    The reason I chose 2005 is because that was the year that I have moved my capital from RE to shiny.

    How would you have played it? Let’s say around 10M worth of life savings.

    BTW, BC Bob is the man.

  222. Libtard says:

    Nice one Relo!

  223. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [215] gator,

    The commenter suffered from the hubris of the protected. In an environment like HLS, open debate is facially encouraged, but it is a trap for the unwary, esp. in the internet age.

    Those of us who have been around the block have seen PC-ness morph from a form of etiquette into something approaching fascism. In fact, in my opinion, PC serves no purpose but to act as an intellectual weapon. In that case, the target will be her clerkship, as the BLSA members will petition her judge to revoke the clerkship (any judge worth his or her stones will not only reject it, but call into question the propriety of the future lawyers’ attempt to influence the judiciary). Further, they will also publish the email in an attempt to deny her future employment (yet, I submit they would scream like stuck pigs if blogs published THEIR names with the insinuation that they should not be hired). I think that such actions are actually counterproductive (they turn the target, and possibly the third parties, into hardened opponents, and potentially foreclose their own opportunities—how do you prove that you got dinged on an interview because you had BLSA membership on your resume?)

    The HLS commenter has learned a valuable lesson: We are in a culture war, and it is no less hot because of a lack of shooting. I have no doubt that if Schabadoo or plg knew my name, they’d at least consider trying to get me disbarred. So if you don’t want to be a target, don’t open your mouth. Do as Berke Breathed suggested, which is to say you love everyone equally and slowly back out of the room.

  224. relo says:

    223: Hyde = Pete, say it ain’t so.

  225. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    Dont know about you gals, but i pay a premium for the chance to get machete’d across the neck.

  226. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Buy Sardines, they are dirt cheap. When the SHTF they’ll go through the roof.

  227. relo says:

    230: Like gold, storage issues.

  228. Juice Box says:

    Veto – This can’t be good for Citi.

    If passed, analysts say the provision would drive business to foreign broker dealers that don’t take deposits in the U.S., such as Societe Generale, France’s No. 2 bank by market value. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, which represents Citigroup Inc., Bank of America and other large derivatives dealers, estimates the provision would require as much as $250 billion in new capital.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAH7Zq6wWQPQ&pos=3

  229. beanbear says:

    Gator – if/when you get a whiff of what Bay finally went for, I’d love to know. I knew the seller “had” to get a “5” (or perhaps end up short?), so curious to see where it landed…

  230. Ben says:

    “Which would you rather have owned for the past 30 years, Dow stocks or gold?”

    Who cares. There is a time to own the Dow and a time to own gold. The past decade, you should have owned gold and that hasn’t changed yet.

  231. Ben says:

    “By the way, where are you storing your vast horde, Ben? Australia?”

    What’s with your fixation on trying to convince me to store my metal out of the country. I don’t disclose where I hold my metal to anyone other than my wife.

  232. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    Tackling the Debt Crisis: Four Ways To Make Money

    No good crisis comes without good opportunities, and the events unfolding with European debt are no exception.

    1) Yes to US equities
    2) Yes to Europen Multinationals
    3) No to Commodities
    4) Yes to Bonds (No to Euro)

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Tackling-the-Debt-Crisis-Four-cnbc-3533401020.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=

  233. Ben says:

    “This is the dumbest defense of all time. I’m sure at some point they were long the Dow too – that doesn’t make equities a great investment in the here and now, does it?”

    Dude, you are harder to teach than a a high school student. Seriously? They aren’t long the Dow now. They are long gold right here and right now and for good reason.

  234. JJ says:

    Gold is Old. I average 40% a year in stocks and bonds.

    Your theory assumes gold beats stocks for people who go all in at the peak.

  235. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    You guys seem to be savvy with business and real estate. Can you help me with something?

    The Hamilton Board of Ed just gave notice to 70 teachers in the district.
    They have no job in Fall.

    If you had to guess, will this help push hamilton home prices higher? or Lower?

    (Assume, everything else is equal and prop taxes jump by the max amount possible by law yoy.)

  236. Ben says:

    “Hyperinflation destroys capital and the economy. Everyone defaults in real term and everyone becomes poor in real terms.

    Name one country who emerged within a couple of years after hyperinflation?”

    I didn’t claim it would be fun but people on this board love to paint the US turning into a Mad Max movie once hyperinflation hits. This doesn’t happen. Life goes on. The public is poor. Russia went through hyperinflation without tearing each other’s heads off. People have a distorted perspective as to how impactful a currency collapse is on their well being and safety. Are you more poor? Absolutely. Does your standard of living decline drastically, absolutely. Do you engage in shotgun battles on a daily basis? No.

  237. NJGator says:

    No matter what your personal position on abortion is, this is some seriously scary sh*t.

    New York (CNN) — As a reproductive rights advocate and a proud mother of two, my blood ran cold as I read about Oklahoma’s new abortion legislation (HB 2656). The state of Oklahoma just decided, and by an appallingly high margin I might add, that a doctor is protected from being sued if he or she chooses not to tell a woman that the baby she is carrying has a birth defect.

    State legislators made this decision Tuesday, voting 36-12 in the Senate and 84-12 in the House to override Gov. Brad Henry’s veto of this law. (The Legislature also overrode the governor’s veto of a second egregious law, HB 2780, which forces women to view an ultrasound before having an abortion.)

    Oklahoma, what have you done?

    Under this new law, a doctor may withhold information, mislead or even blatantly lie to a pregnant woman and her partner about the health of their baby if the doctor so much as thinks that fetal test results would cause a woman to consider abortion.

    http://www.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/04/28/carr.abortion.oklahoma/index.html?iref=allsearch

  238. JJ says:

    Actually, Asians think Caucasians are smarter. IN particular, Americans first and then Germans. In Japan we beat them in every war, invented nuclear bomb, cars, telephones, tvs, pcs etc. Every success they had is from copying us. During WWII Japanese were very impressed the advanced German technology. Pretty much I have been paid millions by asians in consulting fees over the years for my advanced brainpower.

    chicagofinance says:
    April 29, 2010 at 3:19 pm
    Mr Hyde says:
    April 29, 2010 at 12:24 pm
    CHifi, If you find the trends so offensive do you feel its also racists against Caucasians since the same trends suggest Asians are smarter then Caucasians?

  239. Ben says:

    Veto, they send out slips all the time as a preemptive measure. They usually rescind them mid summer when they put together the real budget.

  240. Shore like "Opus" Guy says:

    “Berke Breathed”

    As that great philosopher, Bill the Cat, observed (more than once): “Ack! Puthhhhhh!”

  241. njescapee says:

    seaking of fraud…

    Who’s worried about sea level rise? Gore buys $8.8 million ocean-view villa…

    http://www.latimes.com/features/home/la-hm-hotprop-gore-20100428,0,4103538.story

  242. Shore Guy says:

    Nom,

    I wonder what is in Timmy G’s “anexity closet.”

  243. meter says:

    “Dude, you are harder to teach than a a high school student. Seriously? They aren’t long the Dow now. They are long gold right here and right now and for good reason.”

    Yes, they’re long until they’re not. I’m not disagreeing that gold has been a decent bet to place in recent years – I wish I had as well (to answer you, Make Money). You made a good bet.

    Placing a good bet on a futures market, however, has nothing whatsoever to do with gold being seen as a store of value should world economies go into the toilet, much less as a world currency replacement for reasons already enumerated and still not defeated with any rational counterarguments. Dude.

  244. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “Russia went through hyperinflation without tearing each other’s heads off.”

    Ben, this is side bar but did russians not use toilet paper even before the ruble collapse too?

    Thats just backwards to not buy TP when economy is booming.

  245. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    243 – ben – I guess its on par with taking all the paper away from the classrooms. are they playing this game in your district too?

  246. Shore Guy says:

    Gator,

    It may haave been the Atlantic that carried an article that dedcribed DE as the most evil place in America.

  247. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “Do you engage in shotgun battles on a daily basis? No.”

    Well heck thats no fun at all.

  248. NJGator says:

    Shore 250 – Actually it was The New Republic. The author was Jonathan Chait. It was a very popular read around here – came out right as we were laying off people and moving jobs there.

    http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-chait/the-chait-vault-the-case-against-delaware

  249. Shore Guy says:

    If the dollar collapses, I suspect we would see a push for a global fiat currency. There is too little metal to be used in ordinary transactions. In the final analysis, gold is only worth anything because we say it is; the shine, the lack of oxidation, the ease with which it may be worked makes it appealing to humans but it is no more an inherent store of valuethan is lappis, diamonds, or wampum.

    If the dollar goes boom, the push will be on to remove from any single government the tool (printing money) to threaten the entire world economy. UN Fedco, it goes to 11; heck, maybe even 15.

  250. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “Do you engage in shotgun battles on a daily basis? No.”

    Ok so then what country can we go to where they are in a constant state of collapse and its perfectly acceptable to shoot your neighbor in the face with a frozen paint ball while you are outside on the front porch getting the morning paper?

    Not moving now, but im asking for when i retire.

  251. Ben says:

    “243 – ben – I guess its on par with taking all the paper away from the classrooms. are they playing this game in your district too?”

    No, this is a yearly event. New teacher routinely get pink slips “just in case” they don’t have the money. The truth is, Hamilton’s high schools all blow. Yes, even Steinert. The people there will try to convince you that Steinert is one of the best schools in the state but the truth is, Steinert is 174th in the state (just average). If they do layoff teachers, the place will get much worse than it already is. Not a big plus for home values.

    As far as my district, I work one of the top high school districts (top 10) in the state. It’s in a ridiculously rich town. Despite this, we have the lowest salaries in the county. Our administrators and the BOE really run as tight of a budget as they can. That didn’t stop it from getting voted down but it doesn’t appear that they are willing to take measures like you are speaking about in Hamilton. The parents wouldn’t stand for it. It’s not clear what is going to happen but the mass layoff scenario isn’t going to occur at my district. The big money saver will be moving to half day kindergarten at the elementary schools which supposedly saves us .5 million.

  252. Mr Hyde says:

    veto 255,

    I hear the republic of Congo is OK with that. They also happen to be fans of machetes as well

  253. Juice Box says:

    What is scary about ANY intelligence discussion is testing shows 25% of the overall population has an a IQ below average and they seem to be having the most children.

    What this could lead to is a dystopian future where advertising, commercialism, and cultural anti-intellectualism run rampant and dysgenic pressure has resulted in a uniformly stupid human society devoid of individual responsibility or consequences.

    Oh wait I think we are already there…..never mind.

  254. Ben says:

    Gold is worth something because it is the only form of honest money that has ever worked. No one has discovered or put forth a better form of money to date.

  255. Anon E. Moose says:

    Re[230, 231];

    Forget sardines. They don’t even pack any in the US. linky

    Go long mack[rel]s, the new prison currency. More popular than cigarettes. linky

  256. Ben says:

    Oh, as for this year, we were running a 2 million dollar surplus. We simply absorbed the surplus to still keep things on an even keel in the school.

  257. safeashouses says:

    #248 veto,

    Don’t worry about a future lack of TP. Corn husks were used in the olden days, that’s where the expression “corn hole” came from. And we grow lots of corn, perhaps some nice agro company can create a gmo line with husks that are soft and absorbent.

  258. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    “Yes to US equities”

    Is he on crack?

  259. Ben says:

    “If the dollar collapses, I suspect we would see a push for a global fiat currency. There is too little metal to be used in ordinary transactions. In the final analysis, gold is only worth anything because we say it is; the shine, the lack of oxidation, the ease with which it may be worked makes it appealing to humans but it is no more an inherent store of valuethan is lappis, diamonds, or wampum.

    If the dollar goes boom, the push will be on to remove from any single government the tool (printing money) to threaten the entire world economy. UN Fedco, it goes to 11; heck, maybe even 15.”

    A new currency still doesn’t solve the government debt crises ahead. They still need to print money to payoff debt. Inflation is inevitable given the debt loads and the inability of the economy to service the debt loads that exist. Something has to give and its going to be the dollar.

  260. Shore Guy says:

    Gator,

    Ahhh TNR. Right. I was down there recently, looking at beach houses, and the tolls down in DE are out of sight (at least the ones on the roads used bu outsiders).

    The DE coast is not as bad as the OBX but in Bethany, and that area, it is close. Expensive homes poised to be washed away.

  261. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    ben, I feel the same way about steinert.
    When i hear the locals brag about how great it is, i get the overwhelming feeling they are confusing their sports records with HSPA scores.

    And yes, when compared to the other high schools in the town, (on the border of trenton), Steinert is unbelievably outstanding. I will give them that.

  262. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “Is he on crack?”

    HeHe, think about it.
    The flood of liquidity is pouring into banks and corp income statements yet their costs are much lower now so they are more profitable than before.

    Housing and UE are not getting much worse anymore and the Feds main goal and solution to all our problems is to create inflation and erase all of our debt burden within 5 years time.

    All this and stocks are still down 20% from their previous high.

    From that perspective, stocks dont seem that far fetched to me.

  263. make money says:

    Shore, Meter, and everyone else,

    I will switch to equities when Dow is worth close to 1 ounce of shiny.

    Until then enjoy the ride, lies, fraud, PPT, Ponzy schemes, bailouts, senate hearings, stress tests, GS vs. SEC, Euro massacre, riots, etc.

  264. Shore Guy says:

    BC,

    Where have you been hiding?

  265. Shore Guy says:

  266. RentinginNJ says:

    What is scary about ANY intelligence discussion is testing shows 25% of the overall population has an a IQ below average and they seem to be having the most children.

    Wow, there must be some really stupid people out there. If intelligence were normally distributed (bell curve), one would expect that 50% of the population would be dumber than average. However, these results imply strong negative skew (left skew), since only 25% are below the mean. This implies that the mean is dragged down by a relatively few number of really stupid people.

    To your point, there is a movie about the phenomenon you describe called “Idiocracy”.

  267. Shore Guy says:

    ” lies, fraud, PPT, Ponzy schemes, bailouts”

    For these reasons, we are seriously thinking about a smallish farm. Ideally with its own water supply, hardwood, and some form of view so we can pretend it is for recreation, not a hedge against a big economic mess.

    A Shorepound, I suppose.

  268. Juice Box says:

    re: “There is too little metal to be used in ordinary transactions.”

    Cumon in the digital age money is simply a virtual dream, there is only $829 billion of actual printed dollars and US coins around and most of it is overseas where they don’t have the same level of electronic access.

    Goods and services are traded for electonic fiat and printed fiat due to the need to pay taxes, if there were no taxes to be collected money could really be anything.

    The most interesting fact about our fiat currency is throughout history no other fiat has has lasted as long as the U.S. Dollar. ……since 1973.

    We are a long way from a collapse of our currency, we will continue to virtually dream it up until we collide with same forces that destroyed other societies throughout history. After all it is one big confidence game and I don’t think that we are any where near the tipping point in confidence. They last time I believe we came close was 1861.

  269. meter says:

    @268 – Make:

    Other than some legacy 401Ks/IRAs, I’m out of the equities market and completely a non-player in real estate (I rent). I agree with you re: ponzi schemes and manipulation and am trying to discern where to put my money since I’m all cash – in USD and Euro).

    As noted, I had hoped gold might be the answer since I realize holding cash is stupid, but after some careful thought and reading gold makes no sense to me other than as just another short-term bet. I certainly don’t trust it long-term.

    My conclusion is that the best remaining choice is arable land or land with fresh water access – not housing. The obvious drawbacks are that land is not portable should one need to be mobile and should the US economy collapse I imagine it could significant resources to defend.

    Thus, I’m open for other suggestions as none of these are great options as far as I’m concerned.

  270. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    “HeHe, think about it.
    The flood of liquidity is pouring into banks and corp income statements yet their costs are much lower now so they are more profitable than before.”

    I’d say that is priced in already. They aren’t going to be taking their costs any lower (there’s only so many employees you can fire or switch out for somebody cheaper).

  271. make money says:

    ” lies, fraud, PPT, Ponzy schemes, bailouts”

    For these reasons, we are seriously thinking about a smallish farm. Ideally with its own water supply, hardwood, and some form of view so we can pretend it is for recreation, not a hedge against a big economic mess.

    Shore,

    Already got one. Don’t worry about pretending.

  272. make money says:

    Meter,

    Shiny is MONEY. It’s traded on FXes around the world 24 hours a day 5 days a week.

    You can go both long term and/or short term. You can even day trade it with leverage if you want to.

    Remember, I sit where I stand.

  273. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [231] relo

    I don’t know how long sardines keep in the can. But assuming it is some months, what I do is to make sure I have lots of canned or dehydrated foods on hand. A very small percentage are things I won’t eat in normal times, but want on hand in case.

    This way, you are protected from a SHTF event.

    That said, when such foods are nearing the end of their shelf life, whether they are the reserve or things I just never got around to consuming, I donate them to a food shelter for the tax write off.

    This way, I have my stockpile, and can still benefit in case the world doesn’t end.

  274. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “GOLD BUGS,
    Is this the day that your extreme eccentricity finally pays off?”

    Veto [40],

    Funny thing, it’s been paying off since 2001. That said, the real rush won’t occur until 2015-2016. Got paper?

  275. yo'me says:

    Baker is still hopeful the financial industry can be fixed. He notes an amendment put forward by Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown will cut the biggest banks down to size, though they will still be “too big to fail” by any reasonable measure.

    “The better route involves a downsizing of the industry as a whole,” Baker says. “This can best be accomplished through a modest financial speculation tax (FST) like the 0.5 percent tax on stock trades that the United Kingdom has imposed for decades.”

    Such a tax, Baker notes, would quickly eliminate many risky deals by making them unprofitable. It would also reduce the size of the industry, making it less politically powerful — and a FST could easily raise more than $100 billion a year.

    “Congress is not going to include an FST in this round of reform, but bills for such a tax have been introduced by Peter Defazio in the House and Tom Harkin in the Senate,” Baker observes. “With Congress becoming obsessed with deficit reduction, the public should insist that an FST be at the center of the agenda.”

    Labor leaders say they’re urging U.S. lawmakers to incorporate a “financial speculation tax” in legislation that would overhaul the nation’s financial system, The Wall Street Journal reports.

    The AFL-CIO, said “a small tax on small securities transactions, including derivatives trading” could be used to raise billions of dollars in needed tax revenue to finance proposed job-creation packages.

  276. Shore Guy says:

    Does anyone here have impressions of wines from a vinyard called Cake Bread (or something like that)?

  277. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [252] gator,

    She’ll be fine. She is going to work for Alex Kozinski. Not only will he back her, I pity the fool who gets up in his grill, demanding that he cut her loose.

    True story: When Kozinski was under consideration for a spot on the Court of Claims (now the Court of Federal Claims), someone had to call the WH to tell them that he was old enough to be a judge.

    This is not public knowledge, at least not all of it. Cannot disclose my source, but it was first person and I was in the room to hear it.

  278. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [282] shore

    Yes, cake bread. Higher end, well regarded wines. I typically don’t get them because I am almost as cheap as Captain Cheapo.

    Not to be confused with Cupcake—decent enough plonk for the money, but there is better at the same price point.

  279. yo'me says:

    Goldman Sachs may soon settle its fraud case with the U.S. regulator, the New York Post reported on Thursday, opting to end a legal fight rather than endure a repeat of the public flogging it received this week.

    The Post report, citing sources familiar with the matter, said Wall Street’s top investment bank was mulling closing the fraud case with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to limit damage to its reputation.

    “It’s almost a certainty that there will be a settlement,” the paper quoted a source as saying.

    Goldman could not immediately be reached for comment in London.

  280. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [246] shore

    “I wonder what is in Timmy G’s “anexity closet.”

    So I am not the only one who thinks that Geithner looks like a grown-up Binkley?

  281. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “It’s traded on FXes around the world 24 hours a day 5 days a week.”

    Make,

    Gold is the ultimate currency. It is either making new highs or close to highs in all currencies. Paper printers; We have a problem.

  282. chicagofinance says:

    soy jizz?

    doh!

    [redlasso id=”2c0e3f31-3364-4300-949d-0339ddbe2692″]

  283. chicagofinance says:

    Shore Guy says:
    April 29, 2010 at 5:20 pm

    Does anyone here have impressions of wines from a vinyard called Cake Bread (or something like that)?

    No expert…..Cakebread Cellars….I assume you buy Napa/Sonoma for Cabs, and for that it is fine, but erratic…..

  284. NJGator says:

    Nom/Shore – Even Captain Cheapo has been known to spring for a Cakebread or 2. Stu and I are definitely fans.

  285. chicagofinance says:

    Hyde: Now that I insulted the sh!t out of you, I need to beg you for info.

    Opinions on the BP wreck? We spend a good deal of time reviewing RIG, and they were just fcuked…..IYO who is more to blame BP/RIG? RIG was running at full capacity, so we have a recurring revenue disruption….could this be insured? Roughly 70% of the rig damage is insured so the one-time property hit is US$250M.

    Now the hardest part…we are talking bigger than the Valdez oil slick….how fcuked are this guys with LA, MI, FL, TX damage etc…..who is going to end up paying for this? who has exposure via insurance/reinsurance?

  286. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “Where have you been hiding?”

    Shore (269),

    I heard he was underground in Peru, making sure tungsten was not part of the process.

  287. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Chi,

    It will likely have an impact on all those drilling/parts co’s in increased insurance costs and litigation reserves.

  288. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Chi,

    Cameron Int’l bit it on that puppy too

  289. Final Doom says:

    I have to say I’m happy being in shiny after seeing the posts here from those on the other side of the trade.

    Gimme a call when you need some at 4K.

  290. Mr hyde says:

    Chifi

    I’m not that easily offended. Got a thick hide ;)

    will follow up you q later tonight

  291. meter says:

    @287 –

    Sure it is. Try buying something with it.

  292. chicagofinance says:

    OK not as bad as Valdez according to here…
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/36850121

  293. yo'me says:

    Sure it is. Try buying something with it.

    I was bringing my 22k gold necklace to a “we buy gold” place.wants to pay me $300 to a 2 oz weight.I said are you crazy.

  294. sas says:

    “Protesters Take Over Park Ave. Bank Building Lobbies”
    http://www.1010wins.com/-Make-Wall-Street-Pay-/6928920

  295. meter says:

    Gold bugs are talking the same game the NAR does with real estate. Just another shell game.

    Prices always go up. Limited supply. Call me when you want to bid over ask. Sound familiar?

    No skin off my nose. I won’t be on either side of that trade.

  296. Shore Guy says:

    “So I am not the only one who thinks that Geithner looks like a grown-up Binkley”

    Bingo!

    I guess that made Bush Steve Dallas.

  297. Shore Guy says:

    Nom,

    Do you recall “Pear pimples for hairy fishnuts”?

  298. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [304] shore

    Actually, people tell me that I look like Steve Dallas.

    Same attitudes too!

  299. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [305] shore

    Recall it? I still have it somewhere!

  300. yo'me says:

    April 29 (Bloomberg) — Health-insurance customers won’t risk losing their coverage when they become sick under an industrywide ban beginning in May on the practice known as “rescissions.”

    WellPoint Inc. and UnitedHealth Group Inc., the biggest U.S. health insurer by sales, said earlier this week they would no longer cancel customer policies without evidence of fraud or intentional misrepresentation.

    Companies will end the practice beginning in May, Karen Ignagni, chief executive officer of America’s Health Insurance Plans, the industry’s lobbying group, said yesterday in a letter. The health law signed by President Obama in March would have required insurers to stop all rescissions in September.

    “Our community is committed to implementing the new standard in May 2010 to ensure that individuals and families will have greater peace of mind when purchasing coverage on their own,” Ignagni said.

    This is the second time that health-insurance companies have opted to act before the law’s requirements and implement new regulations from the health care overhaul. Earlier in April, insurers announced that they would immediately begin a policy letting dependents under the age of 26 stay on their parents’ plans.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=a8WRMyyXWUkU

  301. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    220,

    Meter, I once was of the same mind set as you and I actually profited nicely from the oil play. I may play oil again but not now.

    I jumped on the bullion bandwagon for real when I saw the position Soros made for himself. Even in the event of a deflationary depression after this inflationary period gold will be fine. There is no other safe place to be under that scenario except the essentials (food,ammo,gas). There may be a time when gold owners have to liquidate but I dont foresee that being anytime soon and the proceeds could be used to wipe out your mortgage or buy a nice piece of property on the cheap.

    Once the market crashes Im hoping to buy into some mining stocks as well. Thats where the real money will be made.

  302. veto that - Lawrence Yun 'The Panda', 'Next Fall' says:

    “it’s been paying off since 2001. That said, the real rush won’t occur until 2015-2016. Got paper?”

    Wantapolous, yes paper mostly.

    A few chips i bought at $800 but not as many as i wish in hindsight. Im thinking of going in for more but the decision to turn into a hoarder of physical is a process. I mean one doesnt turn paranoid overnight you know.

    Bye the way, if you are a pump and dumper, you are doing a pretty darn good job.

  303. Ben says:

    “Gold bugs are talking the same game the NAR does with real estate. Just another shell game.

    This coming from the guy who quoted John “gold only goes down” Nadler.

  304. veto that - Lawrence Yun 'The Panda', 'Next Fall' says:

    “Once the market crashes Im hoping to buy into some mining stocks as well. Thats where the real money will be made.”

    Al, when the dollar collapses and mining stocks go to $40,000,0000 each, are you going to ask them to ship you the proceeds in kruggerands?

  305. yo'me says:

    wanted to buy a gold eagle coin.guy wants to charge 30% premium.how long before i can recoup that? got notified that there is a 30% collectors tax on the gain when i sell but i can sell to collectors to avoid that.where is the liquidity?

  306. Ben says:

    I got lucky with mining stocks when I picked them up in Dec 2008, SLW, NXG, GDX, ABX, NEM. I sold out of those positions when Gold hit $1200 expecting a big pullback. It never came.

  307. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    317.

    Veto,

    No Im going to make them deliver me 40,000,000 Federal Reserve Notes. Ill use some to pay off my mortgage and the rest to wipe my ass with.

  308. veto that - Lawrence Yun 'The Panda', 'Next Fall' says:

    Yome why the premium on buffalos and eagles? Just because they are american issued?

    I just bought kruggers because they were about 5-10% cheaper per oz of pure gold.
    Im not a collector. I dont care if the president of the US or a jackass is printed on them.
    But i suppose an eagle or buffalo will be easier to unload when the time comes.

  309. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “Bye the way, if you are a pump and dumper, you are doing a pretty darn good job.”

    Veto,

    F-Ing hilarious. LMAO. Pump and dump gold on this site? That’s akin to naming Hank Finkel to the All-Century team.

    I agree, one does not turn paranoid overnight. However, one may decide to embrace security for the long haul.

    It’s quite simple, markets that trade from the bottom left to the upper right, over a period of years, are in a bull market. Pick up a chart of gold in different currencies. Notice any paranoia?

  310. veto that - Lawrence Yun 'The Panda', 'Next Fall' says:

    “Ill use some to pay off my mortgage and the rest to wipe my ass with.”

    Well at least it will NEVER get as bad as the Russian ruble collapse.
    We will at least have TP.

  311. freedy says:

    criminal probe into GS. here we go

  312. yo'me says:

    Veets don’t know much about gold coins,this was from a collector that goes around the US buying on trade shows.

  313. veto that - Lawrence Yun 'The Panda', 'Next Fall' says:

    What about you freedy?
    Do you think we should mail the keys to the chinese and walk away on the national debt?

  314. yo'me says:

    Buying and selling on treade shows

  315. veto that - Lawrence Yun 'The Panda', 'Next Fall' says:

    Maybe we can get a year or two income tax holiday before they actually foreclose on us.

  316. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    325.

    Yome,

    I will only pay 50 bucks over spot for eagles.

    I called the US mint in January and they quoted me a 1400 price. I told them they were insane.

  317. Cindy says:

    Shore 282 –

    Cakebread – Sauvignon Blanc – One of my favorites. Have never tried the reds.

  318. Stu says:

    I received a response from our Mayor Fraud. Here it is in its entirety.

    “It is my opinion that commentators like yourself need to learn more about our budget situation before you assume you have the “correct” perspective on this issue. This year is not “business as usual” and our 14+ layoffs are not a continuation of past policies.

    JF”

    So here are my two responses so far…

    Jerry,

    I know all about our budget situations. I speak up at many town council meetings and have been warning Montclair of what is to come. I’ve even offered no-nonsense advice on how the town could have saved 4 million or so dollars by performing a property assessment revaluation. over two years ago. I told you long before your pursuit of the community center that you would be facing layoffs and should not pursue additional capital purchases. So when the economy doesn’t recover and our governor passes a 2.5% cap on property tax increases, what do you plan to sell next? Or will you continue to heave the burden on the taxpayer to maintain our bloated level of municipal services. I stand by my words and I’ll see you at the next town council meeting where I expect you will continue to ignore the will of your constituents. And I’m not ‘angry’ Jerry, I’m just realistic.

    —————————————-

    You know what Jerry? I’ve thought about your response. You said the same thing to me last year when you were so proud that your tax increase was 3% less than that of your lame duck predecessors. You simply have not cut enough to make living in Montclair affordable to anyone except the wealthy. We are a town with three libraries, three pools, an ice skating rink (when a private facility exists), unprivatized waste collection, as well as unprivatized sewer and water authorities. We are the only train town in New Jersey that I know of that does not charge more for non-resident parking, not to mention the excessive cost to park at our meters. We are laying off multiple Spanish teachers to cover your pet Mandarin program. Show me another elementary school in the state with 70 electives. I’ve read our budget Jerry and I simply can’t believe you have decided to pass so much of the state shortfall on to your local constituents to make up the difference.

    I have an elderly neighbor that literally cried to me for a half an hour last week as she is near putting her multi-family residence up for sale as she can no longer afford to live here on her fixed income plus her rental income. She and her husband have lived in that home for almost fifty years. Who is more important here Jerry? The municipal workers or the residents?

  319. veto that - Lawrence Yun 'The Panda', 'Next Fall' says:

    If dollar collapses and gold values skyrocket, wouldnt it be kind of a negative to have the us seal printed on it??
    So why pay a premium for a gold eagle?

  320. Stu says:

    Oh…If any of you would like to draft a response to this bozo, feel free to do so. I’d be glad to pass it on.

  321. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    Veto (332),

    Better question; If the dollar collapses does the treasury then print it with a pic of tungsten in lieu of our president’s?

  322. yo'me says:

    I called the US mint in January and they quoted me a 1400 price. I told them they were insane.

    Spot low price in january is somewhere $1,100 that is 27% premium.So the seller was telling me the truth 30% premium.

  323. Mr Hyde says:

    Chifi 292

    Opinions on the BP wreck? We spend a good deal of time reviewing RIG, and they were just fcuked…..IYO who is more to blame BP/RIG? RIG was running at full capacity, so we have a recurring revenue disruption….could this be insured? Roughly 70% of the rig damage is insured so the one-time property hit is US$250M.

    Now the hardest part…we are talking bigger than the Valdez oil slick….how fcuked are this guys with LA, MI, FL, TX damage etc…..who is going to end up paying for this? who has exposure via insurance/reinsurance?

    From what i have read it sounds like the explosion occurred when the blowout prevention device failed to perform. The pressure spike that cause the blowout is currently hypothesized to have caused the explosion due to either a metallurgical failure of the pipes, or its possible that the required pipe strength at those depths and pressures was so high that the shear rams that cut off the pipe in the blowout prevention device were unable to seal the pipe.

    I dont know who was contractually responsible for the blowout device but they could be on the hook for this in the end.

    Of the responses currently being used and considered, its likely that the continuing oil flow from the rupture wont be shut off for 1-2 months at best.

    The flow is currently reported to be about 5000 barrels/day. At this point this spill is likely to exceed Valdez.

    The reports i have read report that the oil on the surface tends to be of a heavier grade. This is bad when it reaches shore, as heavier crude is harder to cleanup.

    The amount of shore coverage and damage will depend heavily on weather patterns but the first oil is expected to begin seeing land fall this weekend.

    In my professional janitorial opinion, whoever was responsible for the blowout preventer is going to take a substantial hit.

    The states will have to put out money initially to facilitate the cleanup and will probably end up suing to recover costs. This is also likely to hit some of the tourist activity if it takes to long to get the leak under control.

    The primary insurer would appear to be BP’s captive Jupiter Insurance Ltd who has re-insured the project through a number of other firms

    Transatlantic Holdings Inc. has estimated the likely claims to exceed 1.5 billion and has reported about 15 million in re-insurance exposure.

    Lloyd’s of London has acknowledged that it insured some portion of the transocean interests.

  324. Cindy says:

    Stu – Your responses are great. Let him know you are at those meetings – and be sure and include the story about the elderly neighbors….it’s about people.

  325. Mr Hyde says:

    Chifi,

    In my opinion the news media are being careful about what they are saying. This is likely to be an epic clusterfck

  326. House Whine says:

    338- I agree with Cindy. Better yet, bring the elderly Montclair woman TO the meeting and have her tell of her situation for herself.

  327. MSP says:

    Looking at a house that has an oil tank buried in the yard. There is a permit stating the tank was emptied, cleaned, inspected for leaks, and filled with sand. Lawyer friend of mine is advising if we put in a bid, we should insist it be removed from the ground altogether. If its been properly decommissioned, why is there a need to remove it? I think a lot of this concern over oil contamination is exaggerated. Anyone have any experience with this?

  328. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    343.

    MSP,

    Get it removed. Parents had a home with an oil tank. 10 years ago they had it removed. Called the EPA to inspect and test the soil. The report said it had a pin hole leak and it cost them 5k for soil sampling etc.

    The EPA is a racket. I also know of a marina owner near me that got fined 180k by the EPA because a disgruntled boat owner reported bottom painting being performed at the marina.

    The EPA is an arm of the UN and they are criminal. Dont get me started..

    Bottom line. Your lawyer is right. Get it out of the ground.

  329. Stu says:

    House Whine/Cindy,

    I’m really looking for a barrel that I could wear to the meeting. If any of you have seen me at a GTG, it would certain get some attention. Especially considering that my back has better coverage than my lawn.

    I have made similar statements already in person at the town council meetings. It always falls on deaf ears. This Fried Five truly believes that spending is the key to success in everything. We’ve had a lot of fiscally irresponsible town councils here in Montclair, but this Fried takes the cake. I even had a former mayor two terms ago, email me with pretty much the same critique.

  330. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    By the way, I also know what is buried in some of the sand dunes along some prime coastal real estate in NJ.

  331. Final Doom says:

    Stu (333)-

    Can I wrap my response around a hollow-point 30.06 round?

  332. Stu says:

    Final Doom,

    Might I suggest you email him yourself?

  333. Final Doom says:

    Dr. Wu (334)-

    Befitting our beloved Treasury, they should just spray gold Krylon over pure tungsten bars.

    As long as we all agree to call it “gold”, then perpetuate the lie by saying it over and over, things will be fine.

  334. Final Doom says:

    Cindy (338)-

    Au contraire. It’s about money and power.

    “Stu – Your responses are great. Let him know you are at those meetings – and be sure and include the story about the elderly neighbors….it’s about people.”

  335. Final Doom says:

    Whine (342)-

    I say throw a cream pie filled with cat food at the mayor.

  336. Final Doom says:

    msp (343)-

    Make the seller yank the tank. Chances are, they can qualify for a program that rebates a good deal of the cost…which isn’t that much.

    If that tank is at all leaking- and you buy the house with it in the ground- good luck to you. You will need it.

  337. Final Doom says:

    stu (348)-

    How many ways do you think I can say “fcuk you” before I run out of variations?

    I actually lose all ability to be eloquent around thugs like this Fried guy. My line of sight goes dead red, and I just want to throw punches.

  338. Final Doom says:

    Ultimately, if we want to save anything of our communities, we’ll be drawing down on thieves like these Montklair council members.

    From where I stand, the tree of liberty seems a little parched and in need of some moisture.

  339. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    Where can I get one of those black riot police outfits along with a helmet?

    Maybe Ill make my own and just spray paint it.

  340. Confused in NJ says:

    Major break through, Provenge can prolong the life of prostate cancer patients by one month, for a mere $93K payment to Big Pharma. FDA views this as an unqualified sucess.

    FDA approves breakthrough cancer therapy Provenge

    By MATTHEW PERRONE, AP Business Writer Matthew Perrone, Ap Business Writer – Thu Apr 29, 6:22 pm ET
    WASHINGTON – A first-of-a-kind prostate cancer treatment that uses the body’s immune system to fight the disease received federal approval Thursday, offering an important alternative to more taxing treatments like chemotherapy.

    Dendreon Corp.’s Provenge vaccine trains the immune system to fight tumors. It’s called a “vaccine” even though it treats disease rather than prevents it.

    Doctors have been trying to develop such a therapy for decades, and Provenge is the first to win approval from the Food and Drug Administration.

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    Experimental vaccines to treat other cancers — including the deadly skin disease melanoma and an often fatal childhood tumor called neuroblastoma — are already in late-stage development.

    Currently doctors treat cancer by surgically removing tumors, attacking them with chemotherapy drugs or blasting them with radiation. Provenge offers an important fourth approach by directing the body’s natural defense mechanisms against the disease.

    The treatment is intended for prostate cancer that has spread elsewhere in the body and is not responding to hormone therapy.

    Medical specialists hailed the approval as an important milestone, but stressed it will serve as an addition to current medical practice, not a replacement.

    “This is just one step in a new pathway for treating patients,” said Dr. Simon Hall, chairman of urology at Mt. Sinai Hospital. “We have to make them realize this isn’t a cure, it’s very variable.”

    Company studies showed that taking Provenge added four months to the lives of men with advanced prostate cancer.

    That may not sound like a lot, but it is longer than the three months afforded by Taxotere, the only chemotherapy approved for men in this situation. Doctors hope for even greater benefit if they give the drug earlier in the course of the disease.

    Dendreon said Thursday the drug will cost $93,000 per patient.

    The approval marks a remarkable turnaround for Seattle-based Dendreon, whose shares plummeted three years ago when the FDA delayed a decision on the therapy, asking for more proof of safety and effectiveness. That delay came despite an expert panel’s recommendation for approval.

    Dendreon shares jumped 19 percent to new highs ahead of the news, rising to an all-time high of $47.32. The company spent more than 15 years developing and testing Provenge.

    Analysts expect the product to reach blockbuster sales status — over $1 billion — by 2016, as the company expands production capacity.

    Each regimen of Provenge must to tailored to the immune system of the patient using a time-consuming formulation process.

    Doctors collect special blood cells from each patient that help the immune system recognize cancer as a threat. The cells are mixed with a protein found on most prostate cancer cells and another substance to rev up the immune system. The resulting “vaccine” is given back to the patient as three infusions two weeks apart.

    Initially, Dendreon will identify Provenge patients through the 50 medical centers that helped test the drug. But researchers have been told the company will only be able to provide vaccines for a few patients at each site per month.

    “There are going to be a lot of patients that want it and there will be limited resources as they are getting this up and running,” said Dr. Deborah Bradley of Duke University School of Medicine

    About 192,000 new cases of prostate cancer were diagnosed in 2009, and 27,000 men died of the disease, according to the FDA. Prostate cancer most often affects older men.

    Side effects of Provenge are relatively mild, such as chills, fatigue, fever, and headache. By comparison, side effects of chemotherapy typically include hair loss, nausea, anemia and diarrhea

  341. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “Major break through, Provenge can prolong the life of prostate cancer patients by one month, for a mere $93K payment to Big Pharma. FDA views this as an unqualified sucess.”

    Confused,

    If you apply for a loan with zero down, no doc and neg amort, you may be able to buy a year?

  342. safeashouses says:

    Doom said yank the tank. hehe

  343. Confused in NJ says:

    357.Mr Wantanapolous says:
    April 29, 2010 at 10:28 pm
    “Major break through, Provenge can prolong the life of prostate cancer patients by one month, for a mere $93K payment to Big Pharma. FDA views this as an unqualified sucess.”

    Confused,

    If you apply for a loan with zero down, no doc and neg amort, you may be able to buy a year?

    They aren’t selling a year, only one month.

  344. Smathers says:

    Ha Doom,

    Still in Perth Amboy? Laughing my ass off. Guess you shouldn’t have listened to your father in law who said “just another half hour, my boy, you’ll have all the house you want.” Nobody wants that chemical-infested sewer. Sorry.

  345. Pat says:

    Stu, you can do better.

    Simple message. Confidence in outcome. Keep the sentences short.

    White space. Poor old lady gets a picture attachment. Wide angle, blank look.

    Think of the way Clint Eastwood delivered lines.

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  347. Final Doom says:

    smathers (360)-

    Huh?

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