Sorry Joe

From the WSJ:

Despite Bust, Ordinary Joes Still Can’t Afford Stately Homes

One of the disappointing aspects of a housing bust is that it doesn’t actually mean ordinary Joes can now afford stately homes with views of the Golden Gate Bridge or luxury apartments overlooking Central Park in Manhattan.

As we report in Friday’s Journal, prices have come down on nearly all types of homes, but there is still pretty fierce competition for homes in coveted neighborhoods with décor that would make the editors of Architectural Digest drool. That proves there are still more wealthy people than there are great homes in the best neighborhoods. The homes that are selling for peanuts generally are in places where the well-heeled don’t wish to bed down.

So far, indeed, the biggest price cuts have come at the lower end of the market. The S&P/Case-Shiller indexes show that home prices in the lower tier of the market in the Miami area are down 61% from the peak, while the upper tier is down 42%. In the Las Vegas area, the lower tier is down 64% and the upper tier 52%. In the New York area, prices are down 27% for the hoi polloi and 17% for the hoity-toity. In Los Angeles, they’re down 53% for the riffraff and 28% for the stars.

Now, some experts say that’s merely because the low end has already adjusted to reality while the high end is still in the clouds. And it is quite possible that prices on poorly located McMansions will have to come down hard to attract buyers. But in the ritziest neighborhoods, don’t look for prices to crash.

New Jersey has a 35-month supply of homes priced at $2.5 million or more, says Jeffrey Otteau, president of Otteau Valuation Group Inc., an appraisal firm in East Brunswick, N.J. That compares with a seven-month supply for the New Jersey housing market as a whole. Mr. Otteau says luxury sales are recovering more slowly than the rest of the market, partly because the state has lost many high-paying jobs in recent years.

Though Mr. Otteau expects the luxury market in New Jersey to improve in the near term, he says it faces another slump within about five years as baby boomers are forced to sell big homes to cut their living expenses and fund retirement. “We’ve got another wave of houses coming on the market over the next five years,” he says.

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333 Responses to Sorry Joe

  1. grim says:

    From the Record:

    NJ commercial foreclosures continue at same clip as ’09

    The strong pace of commercial real estate foreclosures in New Jersey did not abate in the first quarter, in a sign of continuing distress facing income-producing properties, according to newly released state data.

    There have been 499 commercial foreclosures filed statewide in the first four months of this year — including one involving a prominent Hackensack office complex, according to data compiled by the New Jersey Judiciary. There were 503 commercial foreclosures in New Jersey in the first quarter of 2009.

    There have been 39 commercial foreclosures in Bergen County this year through April, up from 27 filed through April 2009. In Passaic, there have been 29 commercial foreclosures filed, up from 26 through April 2009.

    Nationwide, commercial property values declined 0.5 percent in March, 43.7 percent below their peak in October 2007, according to the latest Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices. The price decline reflects the recession’s toll on employers, retail tenants and manufacturers that cut back on commercial real estate as revenue sank during the downturn.

  2. serenity now says:

    Ordinary Joe’s purchasing stately homes…….
    That is how this whole mess started!!
    Mansions for everyone, A BMW in every driveway and
    ALL the children get a trophy.

  3. freedy says:

    another slump in five years, what do we have here, a lost 20 years ?

  4. Essex says:

    Eh. Joe doesn’t care.

  5. Essex says:

    Once the boomers retire, gen X will have the pick of the abandoned minefield. The desolate corner lots. The arid women.

  6. Al Gore says:

    Is the Kenyan going to Arlington or not?

    No matter how hard the tabloids try to airbrush michelle obama into beauty she still is big birds ugly sister.

  7. Al Gore says:

    Good point essex. All that boomer money will be converted to gold and assets bought on the cheap. Unless of course we get drafted to fight in a meat grinder.

  8. Essex says:

    Al you smell of old spice and seething anger.

  9. Final Doom says:

    Bojangles and his minions will probably spend the weekend dreaming up ways to escalate and expand our national policy of endless war.

    War is the most effective way to both distract and impoverish massive amounts of ordinary citizens.

  10. Al Gore says:

    8.

    You should watch me shoot an AR15.

  11. Final Doom says:

    If we’re gonna fight everybody in the world, let’s finish ’em off with a mushroom cloud. And do it fast.

    However, one look at our rules of engagement and our unwillingness to actually win decisively in any of our battles proves the real goal of endless war isn’t to defeat the enemy. It’s to defeat the US middle class.

  12. freedy says:

    i like the horse teeth.

  13. Final Doom says:

    Anybody catch this yesterday?

    “Matt Simmons was an energy adviser to George W. Bush, is an adviser to the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, and is a member of the National Petroleum Council and the Council on Foreign Relations. Simmon is chairman and CEO of Simmons & Company International, an investment bank catering to oil companies.

    Simmons told Dylan Ratigan that “there’s another leak, much bigger, 5 to 6 miles away” from the leaking riser and blowout preventer shown on the underwater cameras.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/prominent-oil-industry-insider-theres-another-leak-much-bigger-5-6-miles-away

  14. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Matt Simmons knows his sh*t:)

  15. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Clot,

    Just watched that clip. BP is so f’d.

  16. NJGator says:

    Shore – FYI – there’s been a reduction on your Florham Park cape.

    REM: Unbelievable Opportunity-Adorable Cape-totally done and decorated. Pristine & Tasteful- owners are offering 2 options:

    ADD REM: Option 1 fully furnished including a BMW 330i 2006, all furniture, all appliances,lawn tractor,rugs,lamps, and snow blower for $820,000-or-Option 2 If you choose you may buy the property without the extras(car,furniture,snow blower,lawn tractor,rugs,lamps) for $750,000 – YOU CHOOSE!!

    http://emailrpt.gsmls.com/public/show_public_report_rpt.do?report=clientfull&Id=55160421_6166

  17. jj says:

    CPO BMWs are about same price as a new camry. My BMW dealership average downpayment is $500 bucks and your can get a 3 year old CPO 3 series with wiht a three year warranty, free maint for first year included for around 29K. Or you can do a cheap 3 year lease on a CPO and have no repairs for 36 months either.

    Toyota does not generally do cheap financing and a loaded camry is almost 25k.

    Very Very few BMWs in middle class households were bought new.

    serenity now says:
    May 28, 2010 at 6:35 am
    Ordinary Joe’s purchasing stately homes…….
    That is how this whole mess started!!
    Mansions for everyone, A BMW in every driveway and
    ALL the children get a trophy.

  18. safeashouses says:

    #16 Gator

    That is too funny.

    3 years ago I looked at a small split in Florham Park (dropped by during an open house). It was listed at 625k I asked the agent where the rest of the house was. He told me it was a good price. I said yes, but for whom.

  19. NJGator says:

    Safe – Earlier this week Door #1 was going to cost $849k and Door #2 $799k. They’ve dropped the ask on the house only by $49k, but for the whole shooting match only $29k.

    Do you want to pay $70k over 30 years for a 5 year old BMW, lawn mower, snow blower and some used furniture?

  20. jamil says:

    Nom,

    your employment future will be secure. One third of the country will work for IRS to look for the one third of productive population to tax while one third will be tax advisors helping the one third to survive against IRS.
    When interviewing, just remember some mandatory keyword dropping (“picking my daughter from Obama Jugend summer camp”).

    Remember, “wealthy” is a flexible definition (see how many “20 wealthy families” we have now facing AMT). Was’t 200k the limit that your family is too rich?

    Forbes:
    “Thus, make way for the “wealth squads” from the new Global High Wealth Exam Group. They will be armed with agents with the necessary skill sets to examine these situations in a holistic manner. In other words, the individuals as well as their related entities may be examined to ensure that not only income amounts but also the transactions and relationships from which they arise have been properly accounted for and reported for federal tax purposes. While it will take some time to get this organization fully staffed, there are exam teams already up and running.

    Global High Wealth taxpayers and their representatives should expect to confront teams of revenue agents, partnership experts, and international examiners prepared to scrub not only the Forms 1040 and the attached schedules but also any and all related returns. In the background will be specialists in such areas as financial instruments; exempt organizations; retirement plans (whether individually maintained or employer sponsored) and insurance and annuity arrangements”

    http://www.forbes.com/2010/05/26/irs-wealthy-audits-offshore-hedge-fund-personal-finance-rocen.html?boxes=HomepageSpecialStorySection

  21. Mr Hyde says:

    Doom

    There is a lot of conflicting info on this oil leak. My guess from all the industry info i have been able to find is that this is much worse then they will ever publicly acknowledge. I have spoken to a few different oil industry guys who have suggested the same. if you think its safe breathing the air in the immediate vicinity of the oil slick and the dispersants, then i have a bridge to sell you. Its probably as safe as they air was at the WTC when the EPA certified it after 9/11

    Whats also interesting is that BP has 8+ other deep water operations in the gulf that are at similar or deeper depths. No one knows if they could drill relief wells on the deepest wells in the gulf as no one has ever tried and it may be beyond current capabilities. Its likely that similar structural and safety issues may exist in these other wells (The relief wells currently being drilled are very close to being the deepest relief wells ever drilled).

    If we were smart we woulds force them to shut down the other wells until they are reviewed and BP proves through physical demonstration that the BOP’s are good and that they have a tried method for addressing a runaway well at depth. AT this time they BOP’s have never been physically tested at depth and they do not have a proven way to stop a runaway well. Many of BP’s other deep water wells are bigger then the one currently leaking.

    Not that Brazil actually requires the oil companies to demonstrate the functionality of the BOP’s at operational depth in deep water operations before they allow anyone to drill.

  22. jamil says:

    It’s now official. Brazil is the Utopia for the Left.

    “Clinton went on to cite Brazil as a model.

    “Brazil has the highest tax-to-GDP rate in the Western Hemisphere and guess what — they’re growing like crazy,” Clinton said. “And the rich are getting richer, but they’re pulling people out of poverty.”

    Everybody knows that Brazil GDP is growing because taxes are high (rather than say, they hae been aggressively drilling oil and other natural resources) /sarc

  23. jamil says:

    Bailout2.0!

    A Senate committee will consider on Thursday a bill introduced by Sen. Robert Casey (D-Pa.) that critics say would create a taxpayer-backed bailout of multi-employer pension funds that are in critical financial condition. “Pension plans across the country have taken major losses because of the near economic collapse and the decline in the stock market,” Casey said in a statement upon introducing the bill in March. “My legislation would help correct these problems to protect the pensions of workers and unburden companies stuck paying a crippling expense that threatens its existence and the jobs of its employees.”

  24. Libtard says:

    Attention Ron Paul fans…

    Washington, D.C. – Congressman Ron Paul (TX-14) today introduced legislation to permanently extend the first-time homebuyer tax credit and to make the credit available to people whose homes have been destroyed by a natural disaster, such as a hurricane.

  25. Shore Guy says:

    Gator,

    Tie me down before I write & check for that place. How can any man resist a broken in (down?) lawn tractor?

    Actually, they should approach the Justice Dept. Such an inclusive purchase would be perfect forthe witness protection progtam; old house, old car, old stuff, new town and new identity.

  26. Mikinwaiting says:

    Stu 24 read that yesterday couldn’t believe it. Paul putting forth this insanity,Clot is right embrace the oblivion.

  27. NJGator says:

    Shore – I can’t believe they have had to reduce and possibly take such a huge potential loss, what with their proximity to Trader Joe’s and all. If it could happen there…

    Asking for the house and all their worldly possessions is now under their 2006 purchase price – and it looks like they did significant work to the place after they bought it.

    http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/m4.cgi?&district=1411&block=904&lot=11&qual=

  28. safeashouses says:

    #19 Gator,

    Why yes I would like to pay 70k for that stuff. Just think about it. Buyer buys everything and immediately defaults. Lives house payment free for 1.5 to 2 years, sells off all the stuff that came with the house,then offshores himself with a nice nest egg.

  29. NJGator says:

    Hon Hai to raise China wages after spate of suicides

    TAIPEI – Taiwan’s Hon Hai Precision Industry plans to raise workers’ salaries by about 20 percent at its Foxconn unit in China, as it struggles to stop a spate of worker suicides and quell rising public anger.

    An employee of Foxconn, maker of Apple Inc’s iPhone, jumped to his death late on Wednesday, bringing the total of such apparent suicides to 10 this year.

    Another employee attempted to slit his wrists, but survived with medical attention, Xinhua news agency said late on Thursday.

    A small worker protest formed in front of Hon Hai’s head office in Taipei on Friday morning, with protesters setting out candles and white flowers as security guards watched.

    Hon Hai spokesman Edmund Ding said the increase in the cash portion of pay packages for all its workers in China had been planned for some time. He did not say when the raises would be implemented.

    “It may help the suicide situation, because we workers just need money and the financial pressure on us is great,” said a Foxconn employee surnamed Wang, reached by telephone at the company’s factory in Longhua, an industrial town north of Shenzhen. “Every little bit helps.”

    The spate of deaths has thrown a spotlight on the labor practices of Foxconn, whose clients include Dell Inc, Hewlett Packard Co and Sony Ericsson.

    Apple and other clients have said they are investigating working conditions at Foxconn, which has about 420,000 employees at its base in Shenzhen and has come under fire for its secretive corporate culture.

    FINANCIAL IMPACT

    The planned pay rise could raise Hon Hai’s quarterly labor costs by about T$2.7 billion ($84 million), which would erode its operating profit by around 10-12 percent, Citi said in a report.

    Other analysts disagreed with Citi’s assessment.

    “I don’t think this will impact Hon Hai’s profitability,” said Vincent Chen, an analyst at Yuanta Securities in Taipei. “Salaries for production workers are usually raised at around the third quarter, which is the peak season for most contract manufacturers as they gear up for the year-end holiday season.”

    Chen added that labor costs accounted for only around 2 percent of Hon Hai’s operating costs and a salary increase of about 20 percent was not unusual.

    “Hon Hai has raised salaries by up to 50 percent in the past, and it’s still doing well,” he said.

    Hon Hai shares were down 1.2 percent on Friday morning, trailing the broader Taiwan market’s 1 percent gain. Foxconn’s Hong Kong-listed shares were up 0.8 percent, also trailing a rally that saw the main index up 1.8 percent.

    Entry-level line workers at Foxconn’s factory in Longhua earn just over 900 yuan ($131.80) per month before overtime and bonuses, said Zhu Fuquan, a production supervisor for the company.

    Foxconn was rumored to be paying around 100,000 yuan to compensate families of suicide victims, said factory worker Wang, a sum he said was tempting some victims given their low base wages.

    On Wednesday, workers said they had been asked to sign a letter from Foxconn, including a clause saying the company would pay no more than the legal minimum for injuries sustained outside the workplace.

    Confronted with the letter, Gou apologized and said he was taking it back, calling the language inappropriate

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37392216/ns/technology_and_science-tech_and_gadgets/

  30. Libtard says:

    SA:
    The Root Cause of the U.S. Housing Bubble Has Yet to Be Addressed

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/207340-the-root-cause-of-the-u-s-housing-bubble-has-yet-to-be-addressed

    “The fundamental root of the housing bubble–the collusion of the Central State and banks to extend home ownership to millions of citizens who did not qualify for that burden– remains firmly in place.”

  31. young buck says:

    N.J. backs off school district mergers

    The Christie administration is backing away from attempts to consolidate and regionalize many of the state’s small school districts and will instead encourage the schools to share more services.

    http://www.northjersey.com/news/95088929_The_Christie_administration_is_backing_away_from_attempts_to_consolidate_and_regionalize_many_of_the_state_s_small_school_districts_and_will_instead_encourage_the_schools_to_share_more_services_.html?page=all

  32. Libtard says:

    Mikinwaiting (26):

    This country (and more likely planet) is completely fukced until a revolution takes place and governments are returned to performing the function of serving the people and not themselves.

    The party of “drill baby drill” and self-regulation are actually attributing the disaster in the gulf to Obama. The Jamil’s of the world don’t realize that they are the pawns in the end game.

    I used to think that oblivion would not come in my lifetime. Now I am not so sure.

  33. Shore Guy says:

    Stu,

    And your point would be?

    I can’t believe you would assert that there is some problem with wanting everyone to be above average, and wanting to live in above average houses.

    I bet you believe in merit-based reward systems too.

  34. Shore Guy says:

    Gator,

    Would that Florham Park were closer to the ocean. Then I could race NJC to the beach: lawn tractor lawn tractor vs. Vespa.

  35. jj says:

    Not all all people are above average.

    Whenever I see anyone over 40 diving a BMW 3 series I say if it wasn’t for the grace of god that could be me.

    Shore Guy says:
    May 28, 2010 at 9:45 am
    Stu,

    And your point would be?

    I can’t believe you would assert that there is some problem with wanting everyone to be above average, and wanting to live in above average houses.

    I bet you believe in merit-based reward systems too.

  36. Shore Guy says:

    Stu,

    Just let WalMart start selling houses. THEN, maybe, people will realize that low housing prices is a good thing.

  37. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Shore 25 thinking outside the box. The witness protection angle, very good.

  38. Shore Guy says:

    “Not all all people are above average.”

    Clearly, you are not a Democrat, John.

  39. Mr Hyde says:

    Just for fun, No top kill has ever worked on a flowing well…. Topkill methods are premised on a functional BOP or valved flow, not uncontrolled flow.

  40. Libtard says:

    Youngbuck:

    Nothing much is to be gained from consolidation as long as we are powerless to reduce public sector staffing levels and reform their benefits. I’ve had conversations with Carl Bregmanson, former mayor of Glen Ridge and prior gubernatorial candidate. There are actually greater efficiencies in managing smaller districts than large ones. The consolidation game is only an excuse offered by the public sector to divert you from the real issues around their outrageous labor agreements. It’s really simple math. Without massive tax increases, there ain’t no way that the promises made to the unions in exchange for their votes can be fulfilled. Consolidation maintains the consistent schedule of the gravy train.

    Do you think that the chief of police or fire protection will not seek double the salary for overseeing a population that is doubled? Do you not expect the public sector support staffs necessary to support the status quo will not be increased as well?

    The mayors and town councils are like today’s corporate boards. They do not represent the shareholder. They are part of the earning elite and will do everything in their power to extend the income gap.

  41. d2b says:

    17 JJ-
    I disagree. I would bet that most BMWs in middle class homes are new and leased.

  42. Shore Guy says:

    Mike,

    Over a beer sometime I can tell you about a conversation I had with a DHS guy that made his jaw drop.

    Thinking outside the mainstream is just part of the service offered by the team here Guy Shore’s Emporium.

  43. Libtard says:

    “I would bet that most BMWs in middle class homes are new and leased.”

    And in lower class homes, purchased with drug dollars.

  44. Shore Guy says:

    “outrageous labor agreements”

    Stu,

    Don’t blame the public-sector unions for the contracts. Any “fault” lies with management.

    The b2gaining unit memberds in NJ are notallowed to strike. So, public-sector management does not face the same threat of its employees witholding services as do private-sector employers.

    Since the PERC Act was enacted, the public-sector employers have held nearly every card in bargaining. They have chosen to roll over. What employee would not take more rather than less, if the employer is willing to agree to it?

  45. homeboken says:

    24 – I seriously have to rethink the wait to buy strategy. It is clear that the govt will do everything and anything to help homeowners. Maybe its time to drink the kool-aid and join them.

    a $600,000 new construction home, 3.5% down (21,000) and claim $23,000 in tax credits the following year. The government will likely never let me get foreclosed and if they do so what.

    I think being paid $2,000 + a free call option on housing may be a deal I can swallow.

  46. Shore Guy says:

    Leased cars to go with the leased houses. Soon they will be leasing their furniture.

  47. homeboken says:

    Above 23k is 8k federal, 15k NJ credit for new construction

  48. jamil says:

    Parasite exposed.

    Wash Examiner:
    “NJ Teacher who complained to Gov. Chris Christie she deserved $83k actually makes $86k ( Plus healthcare. plus pension. In totality, it amounts to well over $100,000 per year.)

    By: Mark Hemingway
    Commentary Staff Writer
    05/26/10 3:48 PM EDT
    Yesterday, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie had a little dust-up with teacher Rita Wilson. Upset over Christie’s education budget, Wilson complained that she wasn’t paid enough and got sharp rebuke from the governor:

    But borough teacher Rita Wilson, a Kearny resident, argued that if she were paid $3 an hour for the 30 children in her class, she’d be earning $83,000, and she makes nothing near that.

    “You’re getting more than that if you include the cost of your benefits,” Christie interrupted.

    When Wilson, who has a master’s degree, said she was not being compensated for her education and experience, Christie said:

    “Well, you know then that you don’t have to do it.” Some in the audience applauded.

    Christie said he would not have had to impose cuts to education if the teachers union had agreed to his call for a one-year salary freeze and a 1.5 percent increase in employee benefit contributions.

    “Your union said that is the greatest assault on public education in the history of the state,” Christie said. “That’s why the union has no credibility, stupid statements like that.”

    Surrounded by reporters after she spoke, Wilson said she was shaking from the encounter, and worried she might get in trouble for speaking out.

    Hmm. Well, based on this PDF from the Rutherford, New Jersey Board of Education — it looks like Ms. Wilson makes a salary of $86,389.”

  49. jj says:

    Funny part everyone I know with real money bought them used at auction or ebay. There is a huge markup at dealer on new BMWs and used ones as they give financing at 1.9%

    Secondary market from people with cash flow issues their is a big discount if you pay cash.

    If you can just write a check a ebay/auction 5 series is same price as a dealer 3 series.

  50. Shore Guy says:

    John,

    It is SO UNFAIR that some people have to ride around in BMWs when others get to ride, or be driven around, in Bentleys.

    Where is the fairness in THAT?

  51. Juice Box says:

    JJ so much for a status symbol that in the 5 series sedans and tourings are used as police cars and Taxis in many European countries. Just not in the US, where they’re way overpriced.

  52. d2b says:

    John-
    We have a racket about 3 miles from me in Norristown, PA leasing used cars. They are buying cars at auction for $500 to $1500 and leasing them to people with poor credit for $500 down plus monthly payments. They move over 180 cars a month.

    Leasing seems to have it’s place. But like any other instrument, it gets twisted to become a method to lower payments. Many people doing it have no true concept of ownership.

    The reason that you can get great deals at auction or on CPO is because somebody has taken the bullet on that car up front.

  53. sas says:

    “i like the horse teeth”

    hugh? i don’t get it.

    SAS

  54. sas says:

    “And in lower class homes, purchased with drug dollars”

    not necessarily. They just decided to live in a trailer and collect food stamps.

    now, get back to work and pay for my retirement. I’m entitled.

    SAS

  55. sas says:

    what do you think Mr Hyde?

    is the whole Gulf now a dead zone?

    SAS

  56. Shore Guy says:

    Dude? You going to grieve that or what? (from the San Francisco Chronicle):

    San Jose union begins organizing pot workers

    Joe Garofoli, San Francisco Chronicle Staff Writer

    Friday, May 28, 2010

    A major California labor union is organizing medical cannabis workers in Oakland, a move that analysts say will help efforts to legalize marijuana and open the door for the union to organize thousands more workers if state voters pass a measure in November to allow recreational marijuana use by adults.

    The 26,000-member United Food and Commercial Workers Local 5 in San Jose is believed to be the first union in the country to organize workers in a marijuana-related business. It is considering new job classifications including “bud tender” – a sommelier of sorts who helps medical marijuana users choose the right strain for their ailment.

    “Union bud tender,” said Carl Anderson, executive director of AMCD, an Oakland nonprofit medical cannabis dispensary that is going through the city’s permitting process. The dispensary has 15 freshly minted union employees as it readies for an expected opening in December. “With full union health benefits and a pension,” Anderson said.

    With roughly 100 cannabis industry workers in Oakland now in the process of unionizing, the move is mutually beneficial for labor and marijuana advocates.

    The union, whose membership is dominated by commercial grocery store workers, retail clerks and some agricultural workers, gets to establish a toehold in a growing new pool of cannabis workers.

    snip

  57. sas says:

    and I never believe what I hear from the Baengnyeong Island.

    SAS

  58. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Well hopefully there’s some edible seafood in New Orleans when I go there in June. Might be time to invest in Vietnamese shrimp companies.

  59. Juice Box says:

    re: #53 SaS – Horse Teeth = huge porcelain veneers.

    http://www.mattwardman.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/q-photo-obama-smile.jpg

  60. Shore Guy says:

    http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_5930.shtml

    For those interested in real or imagined false-flag operations.

  61. sas says:

    “huge porcelain veneers”

    ha ha.

    not me. I still all my tooth (singular).

    :P
    SAS

  62. This is a trend that is happening on both coasts. I see young people trying to become homeowners, but they are still unable to afford their own place.

  63. Juice Box says:

    For those that want to sell thier gold and move on to the next big thing.

    More profitable than gold, Chinese farmers cash in on the latest commodity.

    N. Korean women becoming commodity in China: activist

    SEOUL — Young female refugees from North Korea are increasingly becoming a commodity in China, where they are sold to farmers for up to US$1,500 a head, according to a Seoul campaigner.

    The human trafficking is far from new but has become more prevalent as prices soar amid a shortage of Chinese women in the countryside, said Reverend Chun Ki-Won, head of the Durihana Association, which offers aid to refugees.

    Chun, who has helped more than 900 North Koreans escape from China, said women are forced to live “like animals” because of Beijing’s policy of repatriating the refugees as economic migrants.

    “China is now a responsible nation. It should care about national prestige through solving human rights issues,” he told AFP.

    If the women were not in danger of being sent back “they would not have to live such an inhumane life as this” in China, he said.

    Men escaping the impoverished hard line North increasingly fall victim to tighter border controls or to bounties offered to Chinese for turning them in.

    Women can find safer shelter across the border because of their economic value. Nowadays they make up around 80 percent of the tens of thousands of North Koreans hiding in China, Chun said.

    More than 90 percent of them fall victim to human trafficking, he said.
    The process starts at the border, where Chinese brokers bribe the North’s border guards to let the women through, the 53-year-old pastor said — usually between 500 and 1,000 yuan (US$75 to US$150) for each.

    One of two fates awaits the women who make it through: marriage to a farmer, often elderly or disabled, or taking their clothes off for Internet sex shows.

    About 20-30 percent are destined for marriage and are resold to another broker for about 2,000 yuan. They are then sold to farmers, normally for 5,000-10,000 yuan, but the trafficking does not necessarily end there.

    If the customer does not like his wife, he can resell her and add about 2,000 yuan to the original price. Some women are sold seven or eight times, Chun said.
    The women rarely know what is in store for them, Chun said. “Most of the time, they are just told they will get a good job in China and will be able to earn a lot of money.”

    http://www.chinapost.com.tw/asia/korea/2010/05/14/256455/N-Korean.htm

  64. make money says:

    http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/Mercedes-Benz-E-Class-E63-MI-20K-07-CERTIFIED-SILVER-E-63-AMG-SEDAN-LOW-MILES-NAVIGATION-_W0QQcmdZViewItemQQhashZitem414fc4e22cQQitemZ280511177260QQptZUSQ5fCarsQ5fTrucks

    John John,

    FCUK BMW 525i. Why would anyone buy a new 3 series when you can buy this beast for cheaper? I definitively see your point though.

  65. Mr Hyde says:

    SAS

    My personal opinion…. The gulf will never be the same as it once was. This will take decades to fully recover.

    One thing i am curious about, will the Caribbean island such as the cayman islands, virgins islands, etc be effected.

    At the moment it will probably be late august or early September before they can start the kill operation with the relief wells. By then i wonder if enough oil will have been leaked to hit the Caribbean destination islands.

  66. jj says:

    But do they have X drive?

    Actually I am sick to death of my five series, I have drove it almost 1,000 miles and usually that is enought for me. Never wanted it to begin with other than it seats five and handles well, gets good milage and is fairly cheap to buy at auction. Lots of three year old off lease with warranty.

    I want to get a Caddie CTS or STS V series or maybe a 6 series convert next time. Or maybe go all old school with the four door Jeep Wrangler covt so I can take all three kids to beach as it is only 5 seater covertible. After that when kids are older a little porsche toy covert.

    The brand new 2011 5 series is huge. BMW is like GM in the 1970s when the cars got bigger and bigger.

    This weekend I am firing up my old 450sl covert for summer. Pretty much in July and August my BMW hardtop will be in garage. I love V8 convets.

    My old 450sl cooks as when I rebuilt engine and tranny I got rid of cat convt, smog pump and AC Unit as I don’t have to pass emmissions testing and they were broken, expensive and only slow me down. I changed old style computer too to adjust for this. The computer and fuel injection in a 1975 car is crazy looking and super large.

    So Juice what car do you have or want if you don’t have a dream car.

    Juice Box says:
    May 28, 2010 at 10:21 am
    JJ so much for a status symbol that in the 5 series sedans and tourings are used as police cars and Taxis in many European countries. Just not in the US, where they’re way overpriced.

  67. Al "Fat Thumbery" Gore says:

    Interesting article on SDR’s.

    “So, is the SDR a currency
    in that ‘medium of exchange’ sense? Yes, but only for some institutions.
    Within the confines of the IMF, central banks have agreed voluntarily to
    exchange SDRs (which have been created by IMF Board agreement and
    provided to each country) for hard currency (e.g., USD). Under IMF
    agreements, some member central banks agree to exchange SDRs for USD
    as required by the rest of the membership. This means that a country that has
    been allocated an SDR asset by the IMF can use that ‘money’ to buy USD
    and then use the USD (or other externally accepted currency) to buy goods
    and services outside the IMF (including for FX intervention).
    http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/GS%20SDR%20Currencies.pdf

    Currently 1 dollar buys us 1 SDR. This is one of the reasons I am 100% certain there will be a 30-50% devaluation of the dollar.

  68. Al "Fat Thumbery" Gore says:

    Correction. 1 USD buy .67 SDR’s.

  69. A.West says:

    It’s amazing that teachers think that getting another degree automatically entitles them to more income. I can understand why universities seek phD holders for professors. But does an elementary school librarian become a better librarian just by getting a Masters? I can imagine some teachers for some positions getting zero to negative teaching skills benefits from advanced degrees – particularly if they come from a progressive/multiculturalist university (I’m suspecting most are).

    I know that when I graduated from NYU’s MBA program back in 2002, in the depth of the last recession, a lot of us were just hoping we could find any job in our anticipated industries. In the real (non-government) world, you have to prove to a prospective employer that your education and experience is worth something.

    Do teachers get automatic raises after completing degrees which the public paid for? If that’s the case, I’m guessing that they look for whatever school will give them the degree the quickest and with the least amount of effort required.

  70. jj says:

    Too many silver haired old ladies near me drive E class mercedes. My wife and my office GF both told me e clases were “ladies” cars, also saturns, camrys, pontiac G6, Miatas, and my all time favorite girl car the “deedee McCall” Dodge Datona from the tv show “Hunter”

    I need a mans car. I don’t want people thinking I am driving my wife’s or mom’s car.

    make money says:
    May 28, 2010 at 10:59 am
    http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/Mercedes-Benz-E-Class-E63-MI-20K-07-CERTIFIED-SILVER-E-63-AMG-SEDAN-LOW-MILES-NAVIGATION-_W0QQcmdZViewItemQQhashZitem414fc4e22cQQitemZ280511177260QQptZUSQ5fCarsQ5fTrucks

    John John,

    FCUK BMW 525i. Why would anyone buy a new 3 series when you can buy this beast for cheaper? I definitively see your point though.

  71. Juice Box says:

    JJ – for weekend driving down to the Jersey shore how about one if these?

    http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/Ferrari-Mondial-1985-Ferrari-Mondial-3-0-Cabriolet-/280512238453?cmd=ViewItem&pt=US_Cars_Trucks&hash=item414fd51375

    There are also loads of old 308s for sale.

  72. Libtard says:

    “Do teachers get automatic raises after completing degrees which the public paid for? If that’s the case, I’m guessing that they look for whatever school will give them the degree the quickest and with the least amount of effort required.”

    Yes and yes. Some of them even have online degrees from schools that don’t even exist.

    Ask Gator about the dude from Marlboro.

  73. Confused in NJ says:

    An aquaintance of mine married a retired divorced teacher and now has Free Medical for Life and a 50% Pension Annuity, even though she didn’t know him through his active teaching years. One wonder if there is an age cutoff? Can a retired teacher marry a teenager and give her free medical for Life, and a Pension Annuity for Life? My aquaintance will probably only cost us for 30 years versus 70 years if No Age Cutoff.

  74. Libtard says:

    JJ- Now here is a real man’s car.

    http://tinyurl.com/A-real-mans-car

  75. jj says:

    BTW that mercedes on ebay is a bad deal. Never buy from a dealer a used car. Dealers mark up used cars and you have to pay sales tax on full amount.

    For example when I bought my car

    Wholesale/auction was 28K had to pay sales tax

    Driveway price was like 31K did not have to pay much sales tax as owner writes recept up for less.

    Dealer was like 35k and you had to pay sales tax on 35k which is $2,800 vs. sales tax of $2,240 at auction vs. sales tax of $800 in driveway as owner will problably give receipt for 10K.

    8% sales tax at dealer alone is $2,800 vs.

    So actual price was like $30,240 auction
    $31,800 driveway
    $37,800 dealer.

    That is a hell of a mark up for dealer, Auction I use has a few days lemon/fraud protection which is why I do it instead of private market.

    Only point of dealer is for people who don’t have cash and need financing.

  76. Knifecatcher - Painhrtz says:

    Confused, years ago this would have been a perfect scenario for a younger girl with no talent other than her looks. With the invention of v!agra sadly they have to work much harder than their predecessors for the eventual payout.

  77. jj says:

    Yes in fact a small cap stock that had a one million dollar a year for life pension for widowed 64 year old CEO dropped like a brick when he married a 29 year old cause the pension is also for spouse which could easily be 60 years worth of one million dollar payments.

    Confused in NJ says:
    May 28, 2010 at 11:17 am
    An aquaintance of mine married a retired divorced teacher and now has Free Medical for Life and a 50% Pension Annuity, even though she didn’t know him through his active teaching years. One wonder if there is an age cutoff? Can a retired teacher marry a teenager and give her free medical for Life, and a Pension Annuity for Life? My aquaintance will probably only cost us for 30 years versus 70 years if No Age Cutoff.

  78. NJGator says:

    A West 69 – Yes. See the Freehold Regional HS for a glaring example of this.

    Christie signs “diploma mill law”
    Freehold Regional staff’s degrees spurred restrictions on raises

    TRENTON — A bill signed into law by Gov. Chris Christie Thursday will prohibit school employees from profiting from degrees obtained from mail-order or unaccredited colleges.

    The legislation, known as the diploma mill law, was inspired by the 2008 discovery that Freehold Regional High School District superintendent, H. James Wasser, and several current and former staff members received doctoral degrees from the online, unaccredited Breyer State University.

    “This bill requires that our public school employees attend only accredited institutions if they wish to receive tuition assistance,” state Sen. Jennifer Beck, R-Monmouth, said in a prepared statement. “Additional education should be rewarded, and this law ensures that those rewards only go to individuals attending accredited institutions, not some Internet-based diploma mill.”

    The state concluded in early September 2008 that Wasser, Assistant Superintendent Donna Evangelista and a former assistant superintendent must stop using their doctoral titles or face fines, which they complied with. Wasser relinquished his stipend and later apologized to the district.

    The law requires several conditions be met for educators to receive tuition assistance and receive pay increases for higher degrees or other academic course work. The course or degree has to be related to an employees current or future job responsibilities and the institution must be accredited.

    The law also requires either the superintendent of schools or, in the case of a superintendent, the Board of Education approve course work for which they’re are seeking tuition assistance from the district.

    “The cost of education is high enough in New Jersey, and there is far too much waste. I am personally very pleased that the governor has taken the correct action to turn off this particular leaky faucet,” Assemblywoman Caroline Casagrande, R-Monmouth, said in a prepared statement. “Our public school systems must be protected.”

    Wasser retires in June, ending 23 years in the district. He currently earns $215,000 a year in addition to benefits such as medical insurance and a vehicle.

    The legislation, signed by Christie Thursday, was sponsored by Beck; Casagrande; Assemblywoman Mary Pat Angelini, Assemblyman David Rible, both R-Monmouth; state Sen. Richard J. Codey, D-Essex; and Assemblyman Joseph Cryan, D-Union

    http://www.app.com/article/20100507/NEWS/5070365/Christie-signs-diploma-mill-law-

  79. BlindJust says:

    Wouldn’t the DMV challenge the price/sales tax owed if the stated price was a fraction of TMV?

    “Dealer was like 35k and you had to pay sales tax on 35k which is $2,800 vs. sales tax of $2,240 at auction vs. sales tax of $800 in driveway as owner will problably give receipt for 10K. “

  80. poor guy says:

    re: montclair yesterdays discussion

    it seems there is a concerted effort to pump up prices in montclair and environs. apart from my realtor now there is a blog entry at baristanet

    http://www.baristanet.com/realestate/2010/05/the_buzz_on_home_sales_in_bari.php

  81. NJGator says:

    Apparently the online diploma mill was quite popular in the FRHSD:

    Teachers lose diploma-mill pay bump
    Had used same school as superintendent

    The Freehold Regional High School District has cut back the salaries of two more staffers because they had received doctoral degrees from an unaccredited diploma mill.

    Board Attorney Lawrence Schwartz announced that action during another tense public-comment session at a board meeting Monday in the Englishtown administration building.

    English teacher Cheryl A. Lanza of Freehold and teacher consultant Lorraine Taddei-Graef of Lacey work at Freehold Township High School and had both received pay raises upon obtaining doctoral degrees from Breyer State University, the same school that issued degrees to Superintendent H. James Wasser, former Assistant Superintendent Frank J. Tanzini and current Assistant Superintendent Donna Evangelista.

    Their salaries have since been reduced to a master’s degree level. Lanza was paid $58,385 with a master’s salary in 2007, nearly $5,000 less than she had earned with a doctorate this year, public records show.

    Taddei-Graef was paid $66,530 with a doctorate degree in 2007 and was to be paid $73,620 during the 2008-09 school year.

    Wasser had received a pay bump as well, but stopped receiving the extra stipend after the state ordered that he, Tanzini and Evangelista drop their doctoral titles in early September.

    Lanza and Taddei-Graef were ordered to drop their titles in October.

    Public outrage was sparked in July when the Asbury Park Press began reporting on Wasser’s degree.

    Since then, the board has struggled to maintain decorum at its public meetings while a diminishing group of residents has strived to glean information. The discord continued during Monday night’s board meeting.

    Jim Sage of Marlboro, a critic of the board and district administration, asked board President Patricia Horvath if Lanza and Taddei-Graef had ceased receiving the salary bump associated with the degree.

    Horvath answered firmly but ambiguously: “The issue has been addressed and it has been taken care of.”

    Sage said that was no answer, and Board Attorney Lawrence Schwartz returned Horvath’s answer, verbatim.

    Agitated, Sage spoke louder, stating that the public has a right to know. Anger escalated as another attendee shouted that the teachers should be given formal notice before Sage gets a public answer. A security guard began to approach Sage.

    Schwartz answered, quelling the fervor: the teachers’ salaries have been returned to a master’s degree scale, he said, adding that the teachers did nothing improper.

    Some attendees posed questions about employee repayment for the tuition paid to Breyer State and received no answer. About 15 members of the public attended, though not all were critical of the board.

    The board will meet Monday at Marlboro High School, 95 N. Main St. An executive session starts at 7 p.m., and the board expects to start the public meeting at 8 p.m.

    http://njcommunity.wordpress.com/2008/12/10/freehold-regional-hs-district-teachers-pay-increase-rescinded-due-to-the-diploma-mill/

  82. Knifecatcher - Painhrtz says:

    Stu is that the Civic you wish you had?

  83. BlindJust says:

    Not true. In ‘2003 bought a ‘2000 Lexus RX300 for $23,750 w/ 40K mi (paid cash). Sold it in ‘2008, with 60K mi for $14K.

    “Only point of dealer is for people who don’t have cash and need financing.”

  84. poor guy says:

    if one does not do own homework and ignore realtors pressure tactics then it’s easy to fall prey

    this shows that the only one to blame for the RE bubble is fed/gov because once you ease financing the rest of the bubble mechanism is already in place

  85. poor guy says:

    needless to say I am dumping said realtor and postpone purchase for a year. hard to have an accepted lowball offer in this environment

    prices went down what? 20% from peak? well what we gained we now have to pay in property taxes. I am sorry but NJ is still in peak bubble territory

  86. NJGator says:

    poor guy – Adriana is actually not too bad. She’s very active in the community and a lovely woman. Definitely not of the hard sell crowd.

    If you’re out of the market, will you still be floating low balls for the rest of us? :) We still need to plan that Fitzgerald’s GTG.

  87. Libtard says:

    Pain (82):

    “Stu is that the Civic you wish you had?”

    Sort of. It’s my model and color, but I don’t got the rims nor the muffler.

    Captain Cheapo…remember?

  88. poor guy says:

    gator

    I am only talking about decent properties of course! who cares about the price of houses next to rail lines, parking lots, needing tons of updates, no backyard, busy streets etc once a house does not have above problems then has an asking price of $700K and $18K taxes

    One needs 300K income to support that. hard to believe that average household in GR and M makes that.

  89. poor guy says:

    always in for helpful lowballing and gtgs

  90. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Sold my ’93 Corolla for $400 a couple weeks ago.

  91. Libtard says:

    “Sold my ‘93 Corolla for $400 a couple weeks ago.”

    The guy at the DMV inspection station offered me $3,000 for my car in 2005, 2007 and 2009. They closed down that station, so that lead is blown. Of course, once gas shoots up into the $3 range again, the offers will return.

  92. dan says:

    Shore,

    If Wal-Mart were to start selling houses, would they need to import Chinese real estate agents?

  93. Juice Box says:

    Gonna have to raise the Debt ceiling again and again.

    Stimulus II — Big Vote Today, Here’s What’s in It
    May 27, 2010 – by Donny Shaw

    (Note: post updated to reflect new CBO numbers.)

    To most liberals and many economists, the first $787 billion economic stimulus bill (H.R.1) didn’t do enough to promote job growth and general recovery given the depth of the recession caused by the 2008 financial crisis. The national unemployment rate, for example, is still at 9.5%, and in areas that were hit especially hard by the recession, the unemployment rate is still going up.

    So, the Democrats have prepared a second, smaller stimulus bill of about $127 billion in new short-term spending called the American Jobs and Closing Tax Loopholes Act of 2010, and they are planning to hold a vote on it in the House on today. Late on Wednesday night, the bill was revised. Here’s what’s in the final bill.

    The single largest item in the bill is the single most stimulative form of government spending — the bill would extend unemployment insurance benefits until the end of November 2010, at a cost of about $40 billion. This provision is designed to help the long-term unemployed who have exhausted their state-based benefits and are in tiers 1-3 of the federally funded extension. The bill would not add a fifth tier of benefits, but would extend the filing deadline to November 30 for people in tiers I (20 weeks), II (14 weeks) and III (13 weeks for states with unemployment rates above 6%) whose benefits are expiring and are looking to move into the next tier of benefits. The current filing deadline for these extended federal benefits tiers is May 31. The bill would also extend COBRA health care benefits for unemployed workers until November 30.

    The next largest item in the bill isn’t as directly stimulus related. It would extend a scheduled 21.2% cut in Medicare reimbursement to doctors until January 2012. The scheduled cut is the result of the Balanced Budget Act of 1997, which says that the amount of Medicare dollars paid to doctors will be automatically cut when that cost outpaces inflation. But these automatic cuts have been delayed repeatedly by Congress since 2003, hence the gigantic accumulated cut doctors are facing now.

    The third largest item is infrastructure spending to spur job creation, which totals more than $25 billion in the bill. This will come in the form of an extension of the Build America Bonds program from the original stimulus bill, which let states and local governemnts borrow from the federal government at lower costs to finance infrastructure projects, and new state highway repair funds.

    There’s a lot more in the bill than I can list here. Other stimulative provisions include small business tax credits, a new summer jobs program, tax cuts designed to help the middle class, expanded disaster relief programs, tax incentives to spur clean energy development, and much more. You can get a good overview and summary documents at this page from the Ways and Means Committee.

    To pay for some of this new spending, the bill would raise taxes on hedge fund managers. This is a big revenue source that Congress has been eyeing for years, but that so far the hedge fund industry and their lobbyists have been able to avoid. Currently, hedge fund managers’ income is taxed at the lower capital gains tax rate rather than the regular income tax rate, which is higher. It creates situations where billionaires end up paying a lower tax rate than their secretaries. As a concession to the industry, which has been lobbying hard for years against the tax increase, the Democrats decided to chnage the wasy only the first 60% of hedge fund manager income is taxed; 40% would still be taxed at the lower rate. It would also close a corporate tax loophole that allows American companies to operate offshore without paying taxes to either the U.S. or the foreign country, and it would prevent some high-earning service professional from avoiding Social Security taxes by calling themselves an S corporation.

    All in all, the new revenue raisers would bring in about $43 billion over the next ten years. That means that about $87 billion of the bill’s new spending would be not be paid for, though it would have a stimulative effect on the economy.

    Will it pass? As the New York Times reports, the main thing keeping some Democrats away from the bill is the fact that it is not fully paid for. “We have put together a wonderful bill, and every piece in it can be justified as good public policy,” freshman Rep. Gerald Connolly [D, VA-11] said yesterday. “But it is not paid for. Until somebody shows me a path for this being paid for, I am a no.” Expect the vote to be a tight one with dozens of Blue Dog Democrats bucking their party and little or no Republican support.

    If it does pass the House today, it will go to the Senate immediately for a quick debate and a vote before Congress leaves on Friday for Memorial Day recess. Several programs in the bill, including the extended unemployment benefits, are scheduled to expire on May 31 unless the bill become law.

  94. Knifecatcher - Painhrtz says:

    Stu when we still had our civic we got offered 2K consistently for it, sadly we gave it to family. Should have taken the 2 grand.

  95. meter says:

    “War is the most effective way to both distract and impoverish massive amounts of ordinary citizens.”

    Isn’t that Apple’s mission statement?

  96. Mr Hyde says:

    Juice,

    Thanks, that was amusing.

    I believe we should follows china’s example and begin publicly executing 1 BP executive for every week that the well is still leaking. Execution will be by immolation using leaked crude from the gulf.

  97. Mr Hyde says:

    Fitch just downgraded Spains credit rating…..

  98. Qwerty says:

    jj, bad assumption that a 5 series bests a 3 series. If I recall you’re in a 528, which is heavier and underpowered.

  99. Al "Fat Thumbery" Gore says:

    JJ at the shore,

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXvvuCgwLJk&feature=related

    I f_cking hate Bennies.

  100. Al "Fat Thumbery" Gore says:

    Even better. Bennies on their way to the shore.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RfUMBgfhn0

  101. Nicholas says:

    A common misperception that people have is that they should be paid a certain amount of money based upon experience and education.

    They are ignoring one very important axiom. You don’t get paid based on experience and education, you get paid based upon the type of job.

    I doesn’t matter if you are a particle physicist, if you get a job being a teller at a convienience store your going to be paid 7-10$ an hour.

    Your job determines your base salary not your education or experience. Experience and education can then be used to stratify you within the pay range for the job.

    An example would be salaries for librarians, say 45,000$-65,000$ a year. No mattery how long you work in the job or how educated you are you should NEVER be allowed to escape the pay band for the position.

  102. make money says:

    John,

    E-63 AMG is a girly car????
    It has 507 HP and does 0-100 MPH in 4.5 sec.!!!!

    You can cruise with your whole family one day chilaxing and smoke 99% of the drivers on the road the next day.

    As far as your 5 series goes, If it doesn’t start with an M or end with AMG then you might as well drive a Toyota.

  103. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    “Mr Hyde says:
    May 28, 2010 at 12:45 pm
    Fitch just downgraded Spains credit rating…..”

    Fortunately the robots are in control so the market should be fine.

  104. jj says:

    Yes it is a girlie car, the Cadillac CTS-V does 0-60 mph in 3.9 seconds, has 556-hp

    make money says:
    May 28, 2010 at 1:08 pm
    John,

    E-63 AMG is a girly car????
    It has 507 HP and does 0-100 MPH in 4.5 sec.!!!!

    You can cruise with your whole family one day chilaxing and smoke 99% of the drivers on the road the next day.

    As far as your 5 series goes, If it doesn’t start with an M or end with AMG then you might as well drive a Toyota.

  105. jj says:

    I think zero to 60 in under 4 seconds is what I am looking for.

    I guess 4.5 is good for the granny lane.

    make money says:
    May 28, 2010 at 1:08 pm
    John,

    E-63 AMG is a girly car????
    It has 507 HP and does 0-100 MPH in 4.5 sec.!!!!

    You can cruise with your whole family one day chilaxing and smoke 99% of the drivers on the road the next day.

    As far as your 5 series goes, If it doesn’t start with an M or end with AMG then you might as well drive a Toyota.

  106. jj says:

    BTW The Bugatti Veyron is currently the fastest production car to reach 60 mph from a stop, reaching the speed in 2.46 seconds

  107. Outofstater says:

    So, the WH offered Sestak something so he would not run for Senate. High crimes and misdemeanors? Or is it just Chicago-style politics?
    http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/dcnow/2010/05/white-house-used-bill-clinton-to-sound-out-sestak.html

  108. Alap says:

    Anyone hear Christie on Boomer & Carton on WFAN.

    He said Xanadu is being renamed, will be Meadowlands, and they are changing the ugly exterior, and the Related Group is helping out and making an investment and this thing looks like it may open eventually!

  109. jcer says:

    John, you should know that generally BMW were for people who couldn’t afford Mercedes or for the kids(3 series, maybe 5). Not a status car, only a status car among those with no status. A status car is a Maybach, Bentley, Rolls, Astin Martin, Ferrari etc. Most wealthy areas around NYC(LI, NNJ, CT, etc) a midsize Mercedes, BMW, Jaguar, Audi, Lexus, caddy etc is just staying afloat, slightly better than a beater but no real prestige. The only cars people notice are S class mercedes and above, generally 7 series aren’t noticed or liked by anyone(i.e I’m too cheap to bay the 90k for an S-class so I bought a BMW for 70k), Jags used to get attention and I’d bet the new ones will as they start at 90k now.

    You aren’t getting any status from your 5-series.

  110. Fabius Maximus says:

    “The gulf will never be the same as it once was”

    While this spill is the largest in US history, it’s nowhere near the largest spill in the Gulf. We have a long way to go to get to 3 millon barrels
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ixtoc_I

  111. Barbara says:

    112. jcer
    I can’t believe you actually took the time to write that.

  112. jcer says:

    I probably could have summed it up easier with:

    You need a ludicrously expensive car for it to bring status in this area.

    You aren’t gaining any status with a 5-series.

    I just felt it had to be said.

  113. Bystander says:

    The, Market, The!

    (in German ala Sideshow Bob)

  114. jj says:

    I did not buy a 5 series for status. In fact I leave it on street at night and park it at train station and wash it maybe every six months. It is a pretty good station car and has all wheel drive.

    I have an SL already. I don’t like the new sls, too much plastic for the price and not to reliable.

    My problem since I leave my car on street and at train a 5 series or caddie was the best I could get and still do it. I think a lot of people think tht way.

    jcer says:
    May 28, 2010 at 1:51 pm
    John, you should know that generally BMW were for people who couldn’t afford Mercedes or for the kids(3 series, maybe 5). Not a status car, only a status car among those with no status. A status car is a Maybach, Bentley, Rolls, Astin Martin, Ferrari etc. Most wealthy areas around NYC(LI, NNJ, CT, etc) a midsize Mercedes, BMW, Jaguar, Audi, Lexus, caddy etc is just staying afloat, slightly better than a beater but no real prestige. The only cars people notice are S class mercedes and above, generally 7 series aren’t noticed or liked by anyone(i.e I’m too cheap to bay the 90k for an S-class so I bought a BMW for 70k), Jags used to get attention and I’d bet the new ones will as they start at 90k now.

    You aren’t getting any status from your 5-series.

  115. jj says:

    Alap says:
    May 28, 2010 at 1:49 pm
    Superbowl baby

    Anyone hear Christie on Boomer & Carton on WFAN.

    He said Xanadu is being renamed, will be Meadowlands, and they are changing the ugly exterior, and the Related Group is helping out and making an investment and this thing looks like it may open eventually!

  116. make money says:

    John,

    Yes it is a girlie car, the Cadillac CTS-V does 0-60 mph in 3.9 seconds, has 556-hp.

    Whats that got to do with your 5 series? I’d rather save the money and drive a 1998 Camry then a new 528i.
    For someone who claims to know a thing or two about cars how could you say that a GM product, managed by Omama and produced by UAW is superior to an AMG Benz made by OCD proud engineers in stuttgard?

    I hate to burst your bubble but a used 5 series bought at an auction aint sh*t.

  117. safe as houses says:

    Texas HOA forecloses on reservist deployed to Iraq.

    http://motherjones.com/politics/2010/05/soldier-iraq-loses-home-homeowners-association-foreclose

    What happened to the right’s of the individual?

  118. jamil says:

    110 out:
    “High crimes and misdemeanors?”

    O is dem. No big deal. Of course, had he been Rep, the head of ShoreGuy would have exploded already with the usual lines from Obamaweek (“biggest threat to this country since 1860s”).

  119. jj says:

    I like American and German Cars only. I am not bragging bout my 5 series. Although I am one of the few whose name is on the title of his car in my neighborhood.

    I love a nice Caddie. I think Buffet is right, he buys new Caddie DTS’s only and he gets a driver. From his point of view the back seat the Caddie is the best.

  120. relo says:

    119, 117: Just whip ’em out and get it over with.

  121. Mr Hyde says:

    Fabius 113

    True, but if this well is putting out around 30,000 BPD, then they will equal Ixtoc sometime in august.

  122. Mr Hyde says:

    I drive to the train station in my DB9

  123. BlindJust says:

    Hyde – you win

  124. Mr Hyde says:

    blind,

    It s a great car, but it was a little inconvenient to have to fly to Italy just to have the custom leather driver seat molded to my butt-cheeks

  125. jj says:

    Gary Coleman dies. RIP

    I want to be his pallbearer, easiest job ever.

  126. jj says:

    I used to stack up people like you and use you as sandbags.

  127. BlindJust says:

    Next time demand that they send an artist from Madame Tussauds to save you the trouble.

  128. relo says:

    127: English, no?

  129. BlindJust says:

    I just received a new listing. It’s listed at a 55K discount to the property next door, that’s been on the market for a year, and has more updates.

  130. DL says:

    Advanced degrees are like granite counter tops. I’ve met many PhDs who went for the doctor title because they were led to believe it would result in a higher income. Then when no one asks them to be a CEO or Secretary of State out of grad school they whine about all the money they spent getting their degree and “someone” should pay them for it.

  131. jj says:

    The ladies think I am like a granite countertop, good looking and hard.

  132. Mr Hyde says:

    Doom,

    Did you use this setup for your kids?

    http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/9033/1274888554753.png

  133. Ben says:

    “An aquaintance of mine married a retired divorced teacher and now has Free Medical for Life and a 50% Pension Annuity, even though she didn’t know him through his active teaching years. One wonder if there is an age cutoff? Can a retired teacher marry a teenager and give her free medical for Life, and a Pension Annuity for Life? My aquaintance will probably only cost us for 30 years versus 70 years if No Age Cutoff.”

    This is how the NJEA works. The union presidents are 3 or 4 years away from retirement and they consistently find new ways to pillage the pension fund at the expense of the younger members of their union that they are supposedly fighting for.

  134. Ben says:

    “More profitable than gold, Chinese farmers cash in on the latest commodity.

    N. Korean women becoming commodity in China: activist”

    In Jim Rogers latest book, he details how there is a huge shortage of women in Asia based on population demographics.

  135. Juice Box says:

    re #137 – Ben I like the part where you can resell your wife, that beats a divorce anytime.

  136. Mr Hyde says:

    Ben, Juice

    Business Opportunity!!!! Someone should start a Kelly Blue Book type service for used NK wives. Or perhaps a used wife certification business!!!!!

  137. grim says:

    $90k for an S class?

    Yawn.

    I’d rather have an Evo, an Elise, and a Fit.

  138. Orion says:

    Re: Hope

    In a small little town, near Robbinsville, I saw hope today.

    A couple with “Impeach O” were recruiting signatures and money to push forward a campaign. Naturally I contributed, but remained anonymous.

  139. Stu says:

    I’m with you Grim. Whenever I see someone in a car that costs over 50K, I always measure it up in how many Honda Civics it would equal. Call me crazy, but muscle cars are known to make up for what lack of muscle the driver contains.

    http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2387/2473882662_d286e2f903_o.jpg

  140. meter says:

    @141

    Such a hero. Pat yourself on the back for doing God’s work.

    Just curious who you’d replace him with.

  141. jj says:

    Japanese cars are for commies. Only problem I have with my mussel cars is when I let them drive keep thinking I have two shiftsticks.

  142. Orion says:

    143: Gracias. And, Chris Christie.

  143. Fabius Maximus says:

    #124 Hyde

    They are projcting the relief wells to be ready in August, it might be a close finish

  144. Pat says:

    Can anybody give me a link to a tomato red convertible, black soft top, that 25-ish drug dealers might choose? Not cinnamon, not cranberry and not apple.

    I had a run in and can’t remember the make & model, and the tag was bad. Definitely drugs.

    Guys followed me for a couple of minutes, maybe like 45, through parking lots, shopping centers and streets. I tried to keep them interested by giving them the Philly finger every couple of miles.

    I called somebody I knew in Jersey cause nobody in MD moved fast enough & then I got an address for a station, but when I got there it was the county dog training facility. The guys took off when I turned in though, and nobody there would send out a car.

  145. wtf says:

    (142)
    Stu, you’re too funny

  146. Shore Guy says:

    “Volcanos erupt in Ecuador & Guatemala”

    Uh, oh! BP is gonna get it. They let all that oil slip out, it messes with Earth’s inner structure and, boom go the volcanos.

  147. Juice Box says:

    Just in time for summer.

    http://www.beachcreeps.com/

  148. sas says:

    gotta love bff fridays.

    SAS

  149. Qwerty says:

    Phony oil cleanup workers shipped in for Obama visit to Gulf region:

    http://cnn.com/video/?/video/us/2010/05/28/cb.bp.oil.worker.allegations.cnn

  150. Fabius Maximus says:

    #142 Pat
    Were they riding old school?
    http://www.s14.net/forums/showthread.php?t=35272

  151. Mr Hyde says:

    New York State Is Almost Out of Cash
    by Betsy McCaughey – Wall Street Journal

    Guess how long it is before the state of New York runs out of cash? Less than a week, according to the state’s comptroller. On June 1, New York is due to send $3.8 billion in aid to local school districts, including $2.1 billion that was supposed to be paid in March but not sent for lack of funds. Yet New York is still $1 billion short. This could affect school operations, the solvency of any business that sells goods or services to the state, the paychecks of state workers, and ultimately home values.

    ….The average state employee earns a whopping $92,332 total compensation for an average workweek of 37.5 hours, according to the Empire Center for New York State Policy (based on figures from the state comptroller’s office)

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704717004575268293014677912.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEFTTopOpinion

  152. safe as houses says:

    Big price drop. Started at 425k, 2 price drops it is down to 359k.

    http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Livingston-Twp_NJ_07039_1117436400

    I was in this house. I thought if it had been listed for 385k or so it would have moved before the 1st time buyer expired.

  153. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Safe 156 not bad, how are the taxes?

  154. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Safe never mind got it $6600, if anybodies interested. One bd room is 8×9,
    more like a closet. Looks OK though.

  155. Orion says:

    153

    IF this is true, it’s truly a disgrace (though I would not be surprised).

  156. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Fabius 154 Nice.

  157. Shore Guy says:

    “Phony oil cleanup workers”

    Here is a text versipn of the story fro. a Mobile, Alabama TV station.

    http://wap.wdsu.com/detail.jsp?key=511220&rc=ne

  158. Pat says:

    Fabius, cool car. I wish it were an older bmw, I could’ve given a better description looking in the rearview mirror. Maybe more like an infinity G37.

  159. safeashouses says:

    #157 mike

    It’s a cute house and seemed to be in good shape. I think it would be perfect for dinks who are planning on having kids or a couple with only 1 kid. I think the place would be too small to have 2 kids in grade school living there.

  160. CAIBC says:

    i keep hearing about this 15K credit from NJ state? true? can someone put up some info on it? when does it take effect?

  161. CAIBC says:

    also, are there any other credits/rebates available right now for first time homebuyers? i know the 8K from the fed is done right?

  162. sas says:

    Dennis Hopper

    another one bites the dust.

    SAS

  163. diamontina says:

    societies president extinctions running issue impact beginning

  164. Confused in NJ says:

    COVINGTON, La. – A risky procedure is failing to stop the oil spewing into the Gulf of Mexico, and BP said Saturday it is considering scrapping it in favor of yet another method to contain the worst oil spill in U.S.

  165. Confused in NJ says:

    Obama could take a page out of the old Draft Era to solve some of the Financial Issues. When the Draft existed, an alternative for Conciencous Objectors was Service in the Peace Corp. A modification of that could be a Four Year Draft coupled with alternative service, if qualified, as a Teacher, etc. All at the much lower rate of pay. In Nam I believe I got $100 per month and a $10K Insurance Policy. If we replaced 90% of the Teachers with Drafted Employees it would dramatically reduce Property Taxes and like with the Peace Corp, they would perform a Humanitarian Service. The displaced teachers could retrain for lucrative private sector jobs. It would also save significant Union Fees as drafed employees are noy unionized. The drafted military would also be significantly less costly.

  166. Shore Guy says:

    I was looking at some houses in SC and Georgia, all within a block or three or four from the beach. Half of them were purchased in 2006/07 and every one of those was priced 15-20% above the last purchase price, even though they all had markdowns from the original purchase price.

    The sellers there must be hiigh on life, or something else.

    On the other hand, I identified some nice places east or within a block of A1A in Florida, one on a golf course, and a lake, all within an easy walk of the beach (all of these between Daytona and Palm Beach — other than Delray, we are not much interested in south of there, at least not on the East Coast).

    All were nicer houses than the SC and Georgua houses, all priced less per square foot, all closer to shopping,medical, airports, and the like.

    I am not a particular fan of Florida but, for $500,000 or less, it looks like one can find better value there than SC and Georgia.

    The next trip I take, I think, will be from VA Beach south to Myrtle, all along the NC coastline to see if it is worth messing with. Given the huge loss of beach sand there, I have deep concerns. Some places are losing 14′ a year, yes feet, not inches (don’t make the same mistake as Spinal Tap).

    The new plan may be Florida and Maine. Does anyone have any experience/insights with coastal Maine? What aabout the partof Florida I mentioned?

  167. Shore Guy says:

    Confused,

    I just read the same thing — that thr top kill has failed and they are going to try and cap it.

    Ket,

    Does that involve removing the BOP or is it just like an underwater version of Chernobyl, where they dump a boatload of concrete on top and hope it seals it ?

  168. Shore Guy says:

    From the BBC, It was just posted:

    “risk.
    New operation
    The “top kill” operation had been going on since Wednesday at a depth of 5,000ft (1.5km).
    Mr Suttles the next option – called the lower-marine-riser-package cap – involved an underwater robot using a saw to hack off the leaking pipe and place a cap over it.”

  169. Confused in NJ says:

    174.Shore Guy says:
    May 29, 2010 at 6:45 pm
    From the BBC, It was just posted:

    “risk.
    New operation
    The “top kill” operation had been going on since Wednesday at a depth of 5,000ft (1.5km).
    Mr Suttles the next option – called the lower-marine-riser-package cap – involved an underwater robot using a saw to hack off the leaking pipe and place a cap over it.”

    I wonder how they will secure the new valve to the cut riser pipe? Maybe the robet can use a pipe threader to cut threads in the cut riser pipe. If it can do that then I could see how it could be threaded on in open valve state, and then closed.

  170. Mr Hyde says:

    Shore,

    The top kill was almost destined to fail simply due to fluid dynamics. Right now you have the BOP attached to the well head, and the risers and LMRP attached to the top of the BOP. The plan is to cut of the bent risers and LMRP and attempt a “Top Hat”.

    http://www.theoildrum.com/files/6.%20Top%20cap.jpg

    They cant try to bury this well it wouldnt work. The sea bed in the gulf is the consistency of pudding for a depth of several hundred to several thousand feet. All they would do by trying to bury it is make a bigger mess.

    notice that of they Top Hat solution is effective at capturing most of the oil while they drill the relief wells, that it is attached to a surface ship and can only stay in place as long as good weather continues, hurricanes ro severe storms would require them to disengage the ship and the Top Hat until calm weather returns.

    The final solution here remains the relief wells, which have a best case completion date of late august. Once they complete the relief wells, they begin the kill operation which is going to take an indeterminate amount of time as it depends on a large number of unknowns. Best case is probably a week or 2

  171. Al "Fat Thumbery" Gore says:

    Its over.

    Evacuate the gulf coast.

    The mother f-ckin Kenyan is on vacation with his ugly -ss baboon wife. Wake the F up!

  172. Mr Hyde says:

    Confused,

    The Top Hat weighs about 100 tons. The weight of the Top Hat will hold it in placeand form a moerate seal, not a complete seal. If this works and they start pumping the oil into surface tankers, then they flow will probably create a net suction in the pipe relative to the open ocean, which is a good thing.

    One of the challenges here is methane hydrates. At the temp and pressure involved methane hydrates can form very rapidly when the oil/gas mix with sea water and quickly clog the pipe. They have incorporated features into the Top Hat to try and address this but no one has tried this before.

  173. Mr Hyde says:

    Confused, Shore

    If the top kill does not work, the UK supermajor plans to cut off the riser from the lower marine riser package (LMRP) and attach another to collect the flow.

    The device would be coupled to a flex joint above the LMRP with a sealing grommet to keep water out of the flow and control gas hydrate formation.

    The cap also has valves to inject methanol or hot water into the production stream.

    BP has already lowered the LMRP cap to the seafloor so it could be deployed immediately after a failed top kill.

    Installing the cap would take about four days, Suttles said, and it could be in place early next week.

    The LMRP cap would allow BP to capture as much of the flow from the well as possible while it works on other options to kill the well, he said.

    He announced Wednesday that BP preferred option in that instance would be to add a second BOP on top of the first.

    http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article216214.ece;.upstream.dinar

  174. Mr Hyde says:

    COnfised,

    They would not thread the cutoff pipe. If the puton a second BOP they would “stab” it into the clean cut pipe, probably using a self sealing assembly on the “stab” section.

    -just an armchair general

  175. Al "Fat Thumbery" Gore says:

    Hyde,

    thoughts:

    “The estimated super high pressure release of oil from under the earth’s crust is between 80,000 to 100,000 barrels per day. The flow of oil and toxic gases is bringing up with it… rocks and sand which causes the flow to create a sandblasting effect on the remaining well head device currently somewhat restricting the flow, as well as the drilled hole itself.

    As the well head becomes worn it enlarges the passageway allowing an ever-increasing flow. Even if some device could be placed onto the existing wellhead, it would not be able to shut off the flow, because what remains of the existing wellhead would not be able to contain the pressure.

    The well head piping is originally about 2 inches thick. It is now likely to be less than 1 inch thick, and thinning by each passing moment. The oil has now reached the Gulf Stream and is entering the Oceanic current which is at least four times stronger than the current in the Gulf, which will carry it throughout the world within 18 months..

    The oil along with the gasses, including benzene and many other toxins, is deleting the oxygen in the water. This is killing all life in the ocean. Along with the oil along the shores, there will be many dead fish, etc. that will have to be gathered and disposed of.

    SUMMARY OF EXPECTATIONS

    At some point the drilled hole in the earth will enlarge itself beneath the wellhead to weaken the area the wellhead rests upon. The intense pressure will then push the wellhead off the hole allowing a direct unrestricted flow of oil, etc.. The hole will continue to increase in size allowing more and more oil to rise into the Gulf. After several billion barrels of oil have been released, the pressure within the massive cavity five miles beneath the ocean floor will begin to normalize.

    This will allow the water, under the intense pressure at 1 mile deep, to be forced into the hole and the cavity where the oil was. The temperature at that depth is near 400 degrees, possibly more. The water will be vaporized and turned into steam, creating an enormous amount of force, lifting the Gulf floor. It is difficult to know how much water will go down to the core and therefore, its not possible to fully calculate the rise of the floor.

    The tsunami wave this will create will be anywhere from 20 to 80 feet high, possibly more. Then the floor will fall into the now vacant chamber. This is how nature will seal the hole. Depending on the height of the tsunami, the ocean debris, oil, and existing structures that will be washed away on shore and inland, will leave the area from 50 to 200 miles inland devoid of life. Even if the debris is cleaned up, the contaminants that will be in the ground and water supply will prohibit re-population of these areas for an unknown number of years. [End of scientists information release]”

  176. Mr Hyde says:

    AL

    WHAT????????? Who wrote that SCIFI movie script? Does the movie come this summer?

    SUMMARY OF EXPECTATIONS

    At some point the drilled hole in the earth will enlarge itself beneath the wellhead to weaken the area the wellhead rests upon. The intense pressure will then push the wellhead off the hole allowing a direct unrestricted flow of oil, etc.. The hole will continue to increase in size allowing more and more oil to rise into the Gulf. After several billion barrels of oil have been released, the pressure within the massive cavity five miles beneath the ocean floor will begin to normalize.

    This will allow the water, under the intense pressure at 1 mile deep, to be forced into the hole and the cavity where the oil was. The temperature at that depth is near 400 degrees, possibly more. The water will be vaporized and turned into steam, creating an enormous amount of force, lifting the Gulf floor. It is difficult to know how much water will go down to the core and therefore, its not possible to fully calculate the rise of the floor.

    The tsunami wave this will create will be anywhere from 20 to 80 feet high, possibly more. Then the floor will fall into the now vacant chamber. This is how nature will seal the hole. Depending on the height of the tsunami, the ocean debris, oil, and existing structures that will be washed away on shore and inland, will leave the area from 50 to 200 miles inland devoid of life. Even if the debris is cleaned up, the contaminants that will be in the ground and water supply will prohibit re-population of these areas for an unknown number of years. [End of scientists information release]“

    Yes the well is being continuously eroded, but there is no giant cavity under the ocean from this. without writing a dissertation on geology ( i’m not a geologist) the oil is coming out of porous rock, not some giant “cave”. The rock is still there after the oil leaves. if enough oil flows out you can have some subsidence of the ground but nothing significant.

    That article is more tinfoil then serious info. Yes this will be a huge mess and have some very toxic effects in some places, yes it will probably spread pretty far, but not a global oil slick.

  177. cobbler says:

    Al, it looks like the domain name americannuthouse.com is available. Go for it.

  178. Al "Fat Thumbery" Gore says:

    I know nothing about these matters, however, I do know abou the problem, reaction, solution Hagelian dialectic.

    Chew on this.

    Ninety oil workers have been evacuated from a North Sea rig as engineers fight to control a huge build up of pressure in a well which critics say has the potential to blow-up the platform and cause a major environmental problem.

    The Norwegian company Statoil has been pumping cement into an offshore well on the Gullfaks field in an operation similar to the one being attempted today by BP in the Gulf of Mexico.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/may/27/north-sea-oil-rig-gas-threat

  179. Al "Fat Thumbery" Gore says:

    Cob,

    Keep protecting your Kenyan douchebag.

  180. Confused in NJ says:

    181.Mr Hyde says:
    May 29, 2010 at 8:38 pm
    Confused,

    The Top Hat weighs about 100 tons. The weight of the Top Hat will hold it in placeand form a moerate seal, not a complete seal. If this works and they start pumping the oil into surface tankers, then they flow will probably create a net suction in the pipe relative to the open ocean, which is a good thing.

    One of the challenges here is methane hydrates. At the temp and pressure involved methane hydrates can form very rapidly when the oil/gas mix with sea water and quickly clog the pipe. They have incorporated features into the Top Hat to try and address this but no one has tried this before

    I understand a Top Hat, but they weren’t talking that initially. They were actually talking a simple Cap & valve on the riser. I couldn’t understand how that would work, given the pressures involved. But who knows. They have my prayers regardless of what they try. Although my preference at this point would be dig a parallel whole and use two 700K pound bunker busters to collapse the whole thing.

  181. Mr Hyde says:

    Al,

    From the link you provided, it sounds like what they are doing on the norwegian well is exactly what they should be doing and isnt all that uncommon from the info i have. If you have a tight seal on the well then there are a number of options available if you run into problems.

    Once you lose the seal on a well, its a different ballgame.

    In regards to the tsunami article, you wont have the ocean rushing down the well. If we were to just let it flow, then what would happen is that as the oil flow eventually slows, the massive pressures of the surrounding rock formations would collapse any open porous spaces and maintain a huge pressure differential with the pressures down the well way higher then the pressure at the sea bed. Even when the oil flow stopped you wouldnt get a a reversal of flow. When i say that pressure would collapse open spaces, i am talking about rock pores, not undersea caverns

    Consider that to pump anything into a well takes very large very powerful pumps that operate beyond conditions most people have even considered.

  182. Confused in NJ says:

    The company plans to use robot submarines to cut off the damaged riser from which the oil is leaking, and then try to cap it with a containment valve. The effort is expected to take between four and seven days

  183. Mr Hyde says:

    Confused 189

    As i have said i an not an expert in these matters. And as such i offer a mea culpa. From what i have read recently any explosive significantly large enough to have a good chance at being successful could cause some nasty side effects in other wells that are relatively near by. Due to the pudding like consistency of the gulf sea bed and the “pudding” depth, the geologists i have seen comment on the matter recommend strongly against it while noting that it would be quite interesting from a geological point of view.

    So it would seem that the geology in the gulf would preclude a “nuke-baby-nuke” option.

  184. Pat says:

    Who’s Kenyan? I had an economics professor from Kenya once. Maybe it wasn’t Kenya. But it was very difficult to concentrate on the formulae while listening to his staccato pause staccato.

    I did the bass and harmony in my head with Queen songs and such.

    To this day, whenever I happen upon an extremely complicated formula, I hear

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxbFLYa0_bw&feature=related

  185. Mr Hyde says:

    The containment valve is the “Top Hat”. I hope it works. The issue with this solution is that they can only use it while they have calm surface weather.

    Most of their attempts here are very long shots. They have to be very careful about trying to just shut off the well from the top. It appears from the info BP has released so far that if they did manage to shutoff the well from the top, the sudden pressure increase in the damaged BOP could cause it to catastrophically fail, which is either worst case scenario, or very close to it.

  186. cobbler says:

    Ability of Mr. Hyde to provide detailed and intelligent responses to plain ridiculous statements amazes, impresses and scares me. If zombies take over they will be out to get you.

  187. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [23] jamil

    “A Senate committee will consider on Thursday a bill introduced by Sen. Robert Casey (D-Pa.) that critics say would create a taxpayer-backed bailout of multi-employer pension funds that are in critical financial condition.”

    Heard about that. For the uninitiated, multiemployer pension funds are union plans.

    Yes, you heard that right. The feds are talking about bailing out UNION pension funds.

    The rest of you? Well, serves you right for not joining a union, I guess.

  188. Final Doom says:

    At a tournament this weekend and using a crappy hotel computer (can’t open multiple windows)…but you guys might want to take a gander at ZH. Matt Simmons is now calling for a small nuclear bomb to be used on the BP leak.

    Matt Simmons is not some garden-variety nut, as I think we all understand.

    Nice call, Hyde.

  189. Final Doom says:

    Guess Bojangles didn’t think he’d end up on the hook for having to make a call on nuking the ocean floor when he signed up for this run-for-president thingy.

  190. Final Doom says:

    Think how much we all hate GWB.

    Imagine the hate that’s coming to a guy who nukes the ocean.

  191. Final Doom says:

    The really scary scenario is the one where Bojangles can’t pull the trigger on nuking the ocean…and the entire Gulf Coast and Carribean turn into a dead zone of 8″ thick oil sludge.

  192. Final Doom says:

    The plume rising from the other pipe break six miles away is now allegedly the size of Maryland.

  193. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [98] relo

    Curious that IRS wants to audit an investment that it set up.

    BABs have two purposes: First, to bail out state governments. Everyone gets that. But the second purpose is a bit more obscure—it’s to dry up the tax-exempt muni market. In effect, a partial repeal of the tax exemption.

  194. Qwerty says:

    RE: oil mess in Gulf

    The “Top Hat” solution tried weeks ago looks ludicrous in its implementation:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QIdufnmoeeY

    The capture tank was 5 feet tall? To capture that flow?

    Should have used a tank 30 feet in diameter by 100 feet tall (cut one end off a tanker railroad car?).

    Or fabricate one larger still.

    5 feet?

  195. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [186] [prior thread] barbara

    “classic example of ‘Its biased, unless I agree with it.'”

    You presumed that I agreed with it. Where did I say that?

    Classic example of “if we don’t share the same views, you are close-minded”

  196. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [204] redux

    first paragraph notwithstanding, and I had hoped NOT to agree with it.

  197. Confused in NJ says:

    I still think the 700,000 pound conventional bunker buster bombs can be used in lieu of nukes to collapse the oil well, avoiding any possibility of radiation damage. These bombs, tested in Nevada in 2006, can be very effective. Drill parallel holes, and use as many as you need in synchronized fashion to achieve the result, without radiation.

  198. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [206] confused,

    I don’t profess to know much about the science (about nuclear somewhat, but the physics and engineering involved in setting a charge to accomplish this, no).

    I can tell you that politically, it is a nonstarter. Just that simple. Obama would rather let this thing run until the relief wells are drilled than use a nuke to stop it. Politically, its a no brainer.

    Well, off to bed, and on the road to Hershey, PA tomorrow. Older daughter totally stoked.

    Dad stoked too. Mom is okay with a stop at Cabelas, which is having a sale on metals for my portfolio.

  199. cobbler says:

    If the sea floor is as pudding-like as Mr. Hyde describes, for any explosive (nuclear or conventional) to have an effect one needs to get it below the “loose” zone and into the hard rock – which may be many hundreds of feet below the sea bottom proper. And even then – not sure the chances for collapsing the well (essentially the high alloy pipe with 2″ thick or so walls) are much better than the chances for breaking it apart.

  200. Qwerty says:

    “I will not tolerate more finger pointing or irresponsibility.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/7726142/Barack-Obama-sends-nuclear-experts-to-tackle-BPs-Gulf-of-Mexico-oil-leak.html

    14 May 2010

    President Obama yesterday promised a “relentless” effort to resolve the problem as he criticised the “cozy relationship” BP and other oil companies have with US regulators in Washington.

    He also denounced the attempts by executives from BP, Transocean and Haliburtion to blame each other during this week’s congressional hearings into the rig disaster. “I will not tolerate more finger pointing or irresponsibility.” Mr Obama said.

  201. Juice Box says:

    If explosives are used to try to collapse the well casing and pinch it off and it destroys the wellhead in the process, then the ability to actually secure the well for the long term is compromised. Federal investigators said the cementing on the well must have failed at some point.A pinched off well casing to contain the well forever? If such an attempt failed to pinch off the well then the risk is an absolute open flow blowout?.If you think they have problems now…

    more on the casing…

    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64Q0SG20100527

  202. Shore Guy says:

    “The plume rising from the other pipe break six miles away ”

    What other break?

  203. Juice Box says:

    shore — tin foil is six miles away

  204. Cindy says:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704269204575270950789108846.html?mod=quicklinks_noonan

    “He was Supposed to Be Competent”

    Opinion – Peggy Noonan

    “And now we have a video tape metaphor for all the public’s fears.”

  205. Mr Hyde says:

    Shore

    Simmons claims the primary leak is about 6 miles away at the end of the riser. Even if he is correct, once they cut off the riser at the BOP it wont matter as all the leaking oil will be coming from that fresh cut.

  206. Mr Hyde says:

    Cobbler

    provide detailed and intelligent responses to plain ridiculous statements

    This is part of my real job when i’m not mopping floors.

  207. grim says:

    What would Red do?

  208. Mr Hyde says:

    Juice

    the riser by the horizon wreckage probably is leaking oil. The quantity is the question

  209. Cindy says:

    216 – Good one Grim

    http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2010/05/if_only_red_adair_were_still_a.html

    If Only Red Adair Were Still Alive

  210. NJCoast says:

    Last night the Paramount Theatre, Asbury Park. Frankie Valli & the Four Seasons.
    Backstage holding court after the show- Sid Bernstein- the man who booked the Beatles into Shea Stadium, the man responsible for the British invasion. The king of promoters. We reminisced about when Moe Septee would bring the “Summer of Stars” to Convention Hall- The Doors, Led Zepplin, The Rolling Stones. The man is 92 and is sharp as a tack! Good times.

  211. Cindy says:

    219 – The king of promoters – How cool Coast…..

    My daughter has had tickets for U2 for months – Seattle 6/20. Canceled…
    Bono hospitalized with a disc problem.
    Bummer…Were they headed your way as well?

  212. NJCoast says:

    Cindy-

    U2 does larger venues than I work. I hear Live Nation is reeling from them and Christina Aguilera cancelling their tours this summer. Live Nation sux.

  213. Mr Hyde says:

    What i want to know, and what i havent seen, is an intelligent consideration of what happens to this mess if a hurricane hits it. All i have seen is “no one knows”. Thats BS, there are some experts somewhere who have at least a rough idea.

  214. Confused in NJ says:

    BP say’s one way or another the oil crisis won’t last beyond 12/20/2012.

  215. Mr Hyde says:

    AL,

    There have been some suggestions that the pressure in the well may have actually unseated the casing hanger (part of the downwell piping) this would make the situation much more difficult if true. There is also a fair chance of the diamond cutting of the damage riser failing. I have seen comments from a few different oil guys that such a procedure is difficult and often fails when done in shallow water on intact pipe.

  216. Mr Hyde says:

    confused 223

    LOL

  217. Mr Hyde says:

    Where’s Teddy when you need him

    http://js-kit.com/blob/YkTceoXjd12Fo2pW1ThZ58.jpg

  218. Confused in NJ says:

    225.Mr Hyde says:
    May 30, 2010 at 8:53 am
    confused 223

    LOL

    You too! We reap what we sew.

  219. Confused in NJ says:

    Maybe send this to the White House:

    For the sins of their inhabitants Sodom, Gomorrah, Admah and Zeboim were destroyed by “brimstone and fire from the Lord out of heaven.”[Gen 19:24-25] In Christianity and Islam, their names have become synonymous with impenitent sin, and their fall with a proverbial manifestation of God’s wrath. Cf.Jude 1:7, Qur’an(S15)Al-Hijr:72-73.

    Might explain things to them.

  220. Cindy says:

    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/;kw=%5B36899,157778%5D?RS_show_page=0

    226 – Kettle

    “Where’s Teddy when you need him?”

    Wall Street’s War – Matt Taibbi

    “Congress looked serious about financial reform – until America’s biggest banks unleashed an army of 2,000 paid lobbyists.”

    I want Teddy too! “13 Bankers” – Simon Johnson – calls for a “trust buster” mentality re: banking.

  221. Confused in NJ says:

    Al Sharpton & Barney Franks have reserved seats on the 2012 Arcs being built in China. Seems a shame we can’t build our own Arcs anymore.

  222. Mr Hyde says:

    cindy

    i want corporate executions. execute the executives!!! now thats regulation!

    start executing 1 BP executive per week until the well is plugged and the cleanup is 100% complete.

    Such a move should have a minor influence on executive risk assessment.

  223. Cindy says:

    231 – Kettle –

    So I want a trust buster but you want a head buster…

  224. Mr Hyde says:

    Cindy

    Canada requires that oil companies drill a parallel relief well at the same time the primary well is drilled. If the US required this, then this leak would already be sealed. Note that the oil companies are heavily lobbying in Canada to have the parallel well requirement dropped.

    Note that brazil requires all BOP’s to be physically demonstrated at operating depth, a test that would have forced BP to use a BOP that was capable of providing the needed protection.

    There should be criminal charges pressed against the BP executives for this incident. It was 100% preventable and there are well known option require by other countries that would have allowed them to rapidly respond to the blowout if they had chosen to use them. That the US doesnt require those measures should be no excuse.

  225. Mr Hyde says:

    Cindy

    I want both. I want executives held personally responsable. Thats why they get the big bucks right?

  226. Mr Hyde says:

    If anyone is curious, a 60 MB pdf of BP’s risk assessment for this operation

    http://www.mms.gov/DeepwaterHorizon/BP_Regional_OSRP_Redactedv2.pdf

  227. Cindy says:

    235- Kettle

    “I want executives held personally responsible.”

    Haven’t we pretty much proven over the last few years that we have no stomach for that.

    Great call though.

  228. Confused in NJ says:

    Presidential aide says oil may leak until August

    WASHINGTON – White House energy czar Carol Browner says oil might keep leaking into the Gulf of Mexico for months until relief wells are completed.

    Browner tells NBC’s “Meet The Press” that the administration is “prepared for the worst.” That’s a scenario none of the measures under way will work, and oil leaks until relief wells are finished in August.

    She says the government has ordered BP to drill two relief wells in case the first well doesn’t work

  229. jamil says:

    This may explain a bit how that many jobs have been created (or is it saved?)

    “The worker, Naomi Cohn, told The Post that she was hired and fired a number of times by Census. Each time she was hired back, it seems, Census was able to report the creation of a new job to the Labor Department. ”

    http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/two_more_census_workers_blow_the_OqY80N3DBTvL17VmxKKR0O

  230. jamil says:

    Hyde:
    “There should be criminal charges pressed against the BP executives for this incident. It was 100% preventable and ..That the US doesnt require those measures should be no excuse.”

    Well, actually it is.
    US is still a nation of laws, despite all the thuggery of this admin.
    It was Obama admin, after receiving more money from BP than anybody in history of this planet, that gave BP the go-ahead (and environmental award). It was O admin that cut the first responder (Coast Guard) budget just before the leak.
    If this is not high crimes and misdemeanors, then nothing is..

  231. Mr Hyde says:

    Confused

    they better plan on more then 2 relief wells. The odds of one or both of the relief wells failing to intercept the leaking well is fairly high.

    The amount of misinformation being put outby BP and the gov/MSM is impressive. They are working over time to ” manage” what the public knows and information is public

  232. Mr Hyde says:

    Browner tells NBC’s “Meet The Press” that the administration is “prepared for the worst.” That’s a scenario none of the measures under way will work, and oil leaks until relief wells are finished in August.

    Bull$hit!
    That the oil continues to leak into the ocean until the relief wells are used is the greatest probable outcome. That the 1st 2 relief wells are successful and are completed in august is close to BEST CASE!

    If they were honest, they would acknowledge worts case is far beyond that, closer to 1 year to seal the well with the well leaking the entire time as well as acdecades long collapse of sea food populations in the gulf. Such a scenario is still a very real possibility and NOT far fetched.

    When people compare this to the Ixtoc oil leak, consider that it was in only 120 ft of water, they tried many of the same things being talked about now and it still took almost 1 year to seal that well

  233. Confused in NJ says:

    241.Mr Hyde says:
    May 30, 2010 at 11:07 am
    Confused

    they better plan on more then 2 relief wells. The odds of one or both of the relief wells failing to intercept the leaking well is fairly high.

    The amount of misinformation being put outby BP and the gov/MSM is impressive. They are working over time to ” manage” what the public knows and information is public

    At this juncture it doesn’t matter, irreparable damage has occurred. At week two they needed a Real Government Solution, but they were busy pontificating on psychobabble issues.

  234. toomuchchange says:

    222 – Mr Hyde

    My lengthy entry with three links just disappeared.

    Let me summarize what I wrote by saying that Dr. Jeff Masters at wunderground.com has been writing about the spill in every blog. I would suggest you go and read take a look at his archives for May.

    On May 26, he discussed what a hurricane would do to the spill. On May 7, he described how oil would affect a hurricane. Finally, let me mention his May 27 entry which shows that this will not remain a theoretical discussion. The government’s experts at NOAA are expecting quite a hurricane season this year:

    “NOAA forecasts a very active and possibly hyperactive season. They give an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 5% chance of a below-normal season.”

    “The forecasters note that in regards to the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico,

    ‘Historically, all above normal seasons have produced at least one named storm in the Gulf of Mexico, and 95% of those seasons have at least two named storms in the Gulf. Most of this activity (80%) occurs during August-October. However, 50% of above normal seasons have had at least one named storm in the region during June-July.'”

    Very bumpy, oil ride ahead. Please keep up the updates and great explanations, Mr. Hyde, I really appreciate them.

  235. Very good article. Looking forward to seeing you write a lot more about this topic.

  236. cobbler says:

    Hurricanes will not affect the spill itself in any way. Each hurricane strong enough to require evacuation will delay the relief well drilling by 2-7 days.

  237. Shore Guy says:

    Between Beers and hot dogs today and tomorrow, remember those we sent to fight and who did not come back.

  238. Mr Hyde says:

    Cobbler

    only 1 rig is currently drilling a relief well the other was pulled off the relief well to lower a new BOP.

    Change,

    thanks for the info

  239. njescapee says:

    Shore: 247, Amen to that. God bless everyone of them.

  240. njescapee says:

    Just got back from a nice brunch at Little Palm Island. Fed orchids to some key deer. It really p_sses me off what has been going on up north in the Gulf.

  241. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    escapee —

    They are saying this goop is moving around the Keys and into the Gulf Stream…..could be headed up the East Coast.

    Please tell me you are NOT seeing any evidence of this.

  242. njescapee says:

    Fiddy, nothing yet. We’re all holding our collective breath though.

  243. Essex says:

    Gorgeous weekend. Agreed, we should remember the fallen.

  244. Shore Guy says:

    Hey folks, Diane said it so it must be true, so get off your @sses and buy some more houses:

    diane@dianeglander.com
    Subj: The Market is Turning, Time to Get Off the Fence! Or You Could Miss the Boat

  245. Essex says:

    “Let no vandalism of avarice or neglect, no ravages of time testify to the present or to the coming generations that we have forgotten as a people the cost of a free and undivided republic.”
    General Logan – May 5, 1868

  246. Shore Guy says:

    If anyone here has not visited a grave at Arlington National Cemetery, and I suspect that few folks here have friends or relatives there, I suggest the following as a way of connecting with the losses suffered by others: find a name of a someone from the Vietnam wall who is burried in Arlington. Research the person a little (much is online), visit the grave and then walk across the river, past the Lincon Memorial, and across the way to the Vietnam Wall. Find the name and make an etching.

    Then tell me if you ever see notice of a combat death the same way that you did before.

  247. relo says:

    202: Nom,

    I don’t follow the “dry up the Muni market” angle. How does the flanking exemption help the coffers if it is subsidized (if I understand correctly)?

  248. relo says:

    Shore,

    I hate the SE coast of Florida. It’s like being in NJ with the traffic, population and congestion, etc. except there are some Floridians thrown in to make matters worse. Not familiar with central FL, but NE FL (Amelia Island area) is very nice in my estimation.

  249. Shore Guy says:

    Relo,

    I am also not a particular of SE Florida. Can you tell me more about the Amelia Island area. Thatvwas a spot that seemed to have some promising places, but I just do not know the area. I am trying to identify some places from Atlantic Beach, NC down to the area north of Palm Beach to go and investigate over a few days. It seems that GA and most of SC has marshy coasts and few places that work for us. but I need to spend some time on the ground to make final determinations.

  250. Shore Guy says:

    One place that seemed like it might have promise was Palm Coast. It seems like it is about a six-hour drivr from Key West and Atlanta, about 3 to Savannaa of Tampa, and a bit more to Charleston, Miami, or Sanibel.

    I have not been in the area for over 30 years so I really have no insight into whether it will suit us. We have also been looking at some bayfront lans and houses with acreage in northern Maine and it seems okay, for a few months a year anyway.

  251. Shore Guy says:

    Indeed.

  252. njescapee says:

    Shore, your best bet is to take your time and explore. Prices will probably be depressed for a long time given the shape of this economy. Not sure if I agree fully with relo as it’s hard to paint SE Florida with a broad brush. I’m sure there are a lot of nice communities along the coast.

  253. Shore Guy says:

    “Last night the Paramount Theatre, Asbury Park”

    It sounds like it was a good night to be working.

  254. Shore Guy says:

    njescapee,

    We are only interested in homes where we can walk to the beach, From Palm Beach south to Miami, most of the beachfront towns have been ravaged by high-rise condo developments and that environment does not appeal to us. Boca is nice and (as are some other places outside our pay grade). Delray Beach, seems okay, as do a few towns north of Ft. Lauderdale. From Miami south, I did not find any town that spoke to me. Key Largo had some potential, but, and I don’t know if it strikes you the saame way, Rt 1 through Largo, feels like a tropical version of the Jersey Shore.

    We are not in a rush to buy in FL, and may well first pick up a place with acreage on either the ocean in Maine or the bay on the Eastern Shore of MD, if we don’t find what we want on the coast from NC to FL.

  255. safeashouses says:

    Where’s the recession? Less then 100 people show up to audition for Jersey Shore.

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2010/05/less_than_100_people_showed_at.html

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