From Bloomberg:
Betting Who’s Right on Housing: Baker-Whitney vs Maki-Harris
Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital, says the worst is over for the U.S. housing sector. Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, expects another painful decline.
They reflect an almost even split among forecasters on the outlook for residential real estate, and whichever side turns out to be right will have made a call on more than just home prices. Housing will play a crucial role in the direction of the nation’s economy and global financial markets, just as it triggered a two-year recession that erased more than 8 million U.S. jobs and $37 trillion from world stock markets.
“There is real destruction when housing demand declines because to most American families a home is their most important asset — a very significant part of their wealth and retirement savings,” Joseph Stiglitz, an economics professor at Columbia University in New York and a Nobel Prize winner, said in a telephone interview. “When they feel insecure about its value there obviously is a very big impact on their quality of life.”
…
The May home-sales declines lend at least temporary credence to housing bears like Baker, a University of Michigan Ph.D and author of “False Profits: Recovering From the Bubble Economy” (PolipointPress, 2010). Baker, who is based in Washington, estimates that home prices will fall 12 percent this year, wiping out a 9.1 percent gain in the median price over the past three months, as gauged by the National Association of Realtors.Meredith Whitney, founder of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group in New York, told CNBC this week that another housing recession is likely.
Also in the bears’ camp: Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist for MFR Inc. in New York, who is calling for a 10 percent decline in prices; and Nariman Behravesh, chief economist of IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts, who expects a loss of 7 percent.
…
About half of 106 U.S. forecasters in a study published yesterday by MacroMarkets LLC expect price declines in 2010 and half anticipate either little-changed or increasing values. The estimates in the study range from Baker’s 12 percent drop to the 3.4 percent gain forecast by Bill Watkins, executive director of the Center for Economic Research and Forecasting at California Lutheran University in Thousand Oaks, California.
From the Record:
Residents protesting property tax increase
The Verona Township Council opened its public hearing for the 2010 budget on Monday amid criticisms from several residents who do not want any increases in the new spending plan.
The 2010 municipal budget is $20.1 million, up 5.9 percent from last year’s $18.98 million.
Township manager Joseph A. Martin identified three major cost drivers that led to the higher budget: the police and fire retirement system, the public employees retirement system and the state health benefit plan.
The police and fire retirement cost went up by $392,000; the public employees retirement cost was up by $228,000; while the state health benefit plan rose by $248,000.
…
As soon as Mayor Teena Schwartz opened the floor to the public, three Verona residents took turns in criticizing the 2010 budget.
Elizabeth Knoop, of 69 Sunset Ave., said tax increases in these difficult times are “unacceptable.”
“In this economy, we have to keep our expenses flat,” she said. “We need to bite the bullet.”
…
Another resident, Al Deold, of 15 Howard St., asked the council whether it could postpone spending on some discretionary projects.
“The council is planning to spend on new bleacher seats, lighting, a new sports field; I like those things too. But times are tough. You can’t have them all at once,” he told the council members.
…
Alex Roman, who moved from California to Verona five years ago, asked the council if it could come up with a an alternative budget “that involves no increase in tax revenue, salaries, or expenses while still maintaining the fiscal responsibilities of debt service and sufficient surplus to maintain our credit rating.”
“It does not seem like an unreasonable request that they budget flat for the year when every business and every household has had to budget flat or down for the same period,” Roman stated in an e-mail to the Verona-Cedar Grove Times on Tuesday.
From the Philly Inquirer:
A Pennsylvania extended-jobless-benefits program ends
Even as senators in Washington engage in high-profile wrangling over a bill that would extend federal unemployment benefits beyond June 2, a Pennsylvania extended-benefits program has more quietly come to an end.
The program ends as state officials estimate 104,000 residents will lose their benefits at the end of this month.
In early May, the program that paid extended unemployment benefits for a final 20 weeks stopped issuing checks.
From New Jersey Newsroom:
Teterboro action close to being first N.J. merger in 15 years
The Senate Budget and Appropriations Committee Wednesday approved a bill sponsored by Senator Bob Gordon that would pave the way for the New Jersey’s first municipal merger plan in 15 years, which will help eliminate duplicative services and provide long-term savings for several municipalities in Bergen County. The legislation would also create a more equitable payment system to offset the loss of revenue for towns in the Hackensack Meadowlands District where development is restricted because of environmentally-sensitive wetlands.
“This plan is designed to cut overall spending, improve the efficiency of services and lower property taxes,” said Senator Gordon (D-Bergen). “Due to the recent cuts in municipal aid and those expected in the future, local governments are under increasing pressure everyday to find ways to do more with less. This plan incorporates a sensible approach to eliminate duplicative services that waste taxpayer dollars.”
Senate bill S-2078, also known as the “Meadowlands Regionalization, Efficiency and Property Tax Relief Act of 2010,” calls for the Borough of Teterboro to be dissolved into four adjacent municipalities: South Hackensack, Little Ferry, Moonachie and Hasbrouck Heights.
From CNBC:
Redfin CEO and Others Pull Back on Housing
How often to you hear a real estate broker bash housing?
For me it’s twice in two days.
I had a chance today to sit down this morning, via satellite, with the CEO of online real estate brokerage Redfin, Glenn Kelman, who is one of the few people actually making money in the housing market these days.
“The real estate market is like a fat man that can’t get up,” Kelman begins. “The U.S. government has modified loans, extended tax credits, lowered interest rates; we’ve fired a lot of our guns, and at this point the market is just going to have a long slow period of decline.”
Kelman is not alone in his ruminations. A new report from Macro Markets, which surveys a diverse group of economists, real estate experts, investment and market strategists, found 56 percent projecting negative home price growth for 2010. That number was 40 percent last month, so obviously less optimistic. The group predicts 10.5 percent appreciation in the next five years, and while that’s actually down from the 12.4 percent prediction in May, it does translate into about $1.7 trillion in increased aggregate household wealth by the end of 2014. Again, just predictions.
But here are some facts:
“The day after the tax credit ended, traffic to our web site dropped like a rock,” says Kelman. “People stopped signing up for tours, people stopped writing offers.”
From HufPo:
Less Than One Percent Of Modified Mortgages In Obama Foreclosure Plan Involve Principal Cuts
As few as 0.1 percent of mortgage modifications initiated under the Obama administration’s signature foreclosure prevention program involve reductions of principal, according to a federal report released Wednesday.
Research by state regulators, academics, and by the Federal Reserve shows that principal reductions lead to more sustainable loan modifications. In other words, they’re the best way to ensure that troubled borrowers don’t lose their homes.
But of the nearly 121,000 troubled loans that have been modified by large banks and thrifts under the administration’s Home Affordable Modification Program through March, just 120 of them involved a cut in principal, according to the report by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and Office of Thrift Supervision.
The Treasury Department has consistently said that the share of modified mortgages that incorporate a permanent reduction in principal is “under 10 percent.” Phyllis Caldwell, chief of Treasury’s Homeownership Preservation Office, reiterated that figure Wednesday on a conference call with reporters, acknowledging that the figure fluctuates as more trial modifications convert to five-year plans.
The low number reported by the federal bank regulators — less than 0.1 percent — calls into question the administration’s entire approach to modifying the mortgages of distressed borrowers suffering from negative equity, a stagnating economy, and near-10 percent unemployment.
From Reuters:
US Q1 mortgage delinquencies fall, foreclosures rise
Delinquencies on U.S. home mortgages fell for the first time in more than two years, though the number of newly initiated foreclosures rose sharply in the the first quarter of this year, U.S. banking regulators said on Wednesday.
The total number of serious delinquencies fell 7.5 percent to 2.2 million, while the number of newly initiated foreclosures rose 18.6 percent to 370,856 in the first quarter, according to a report from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision. Delinquencies are 36 percent higher than a year ago.
The percentage of current and performing mortgages rose to 87.3 percent at the end of the first quarter from 86.4, the first rise since the report was started in March 2008. That is 2.9 percent lower than the 89.8 percent rate in the first quarter of 2009.
The report also showed that more than half of all modified loans ended up redefaulting. The report said 57.1 percent of loans that had been modified for at least a year were 60 days or more past due.
Sign of the apocalypse:
Red Lobster dropping Gulf oysters.
Something to do with stench of death issues.
People rushing stores to buy a telephone.
Very devo.
Cindy, you’re in California, right?
how do you like this headline?
California welfare cards can be used in many casino ATMs
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-welfare-casinos-20100624,0,6190326.story
I feel bad for these people … but it is a smart move by the state.
grim says:
June 24, 2010 at 6:13 am
From the Philly Inquirer:
A Pennsylvania extended-jobless-benefits program ends
The program ends as state officials estimate 104,000 residents will lose their benefits at the end of this month.
“The day after the tax credit ended, traffic to our web site dropped like a rock,” says Kelman. “People stopped signing up for tours, people stopped writing offers.”
You mean to tell me a small tax credit is really enough of an inducement to get people to buy a house – if so, then they are stupid or can’t really afford a house.
The other possibility is that many of these people who stopped looking after the credit went away fully expect another one to replace it.
As far as 50%+ of people getting their mtg modified then defaulting again, the mod program is just a way to delay problems so the damage is spread out over a longer time period with hopes that the economy gets sea legs in the process.
My guess is that this gradual economic decline ends with a big wave hitting us broadside.
And while we’re at it, can someone euthanize this sick pet?
“These days it’s hard being a religious fanatic, also known as a Keynesian. It is even harder when you are Paul Krugman (sadly, the cornerstone of NYT’s entire paywall strategy), and everyone in your own country is already sick and tired of, and openly ignores your constant appeals to drown the world in new and record amounts of debt, thus ignoring your appeals with impunity. So what do you do when nobody takes you seriously for thousands of miles around? Why you go even further – to the core of Europe in fact… where you proceed to threaten, badger, insult and give your unsolicited advice to anyone that listens. That “unlucky soul” in this case happens to be Germany daily Handeslbatt, which ran an interview with the “economist” in which Krugman stick not a foot, but an entire SS-20 nuclear warhead armed ICBM, in his mouth. And since Krugman is unaware, preaching the benefits of record deficit spending in Germany, ever since that little experiment in hyperinflation known as the Weimar Republic, tends to generate adverse reactions. Which is precisely what happened in this case. Luckily, now Krugman is a persona non grata in at least one country. Unfortunately, it is not the one in which his trite platitudes and melancholic remembrances of the golden days of Greenspan’s credit bubble are still published on a daily basis.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ridiculed-americans-everywhere-krugman-now-threatens-gives-unsolicited-advice-germany-pisses
Stupid, would Gulf gas stations stop selling Gulf Oil?
Final Doom says:
June 24, 2010 at 7:00 am
Sign of the apocalypse:
Red Lobster dropping Gulf oysters.
Something to do with stench of death issues.
REFIN by far are the best agents. NJ Realtors have banned them from selling in NJ. Their website in NY and service they provide are excelent and cheap. They give you whole price history, whole listing history and will put in any offer you want no matter how lowball and cut you a fat check at closing for using them to buy your home. Plus in NY the agent is smoking hot.
grim says:
June 24, 2010 at 6:31 am
From CNBC:
Redfin CEO and Others Pull Back on Housing
How often to you hear a real estate broker bash housing?
For me it’s twice in two days.
I had a chance today to sit down this morning, via satellite, with the CEO of online real estate brokerage Redfin, Glenn Kelman, who is one of the few people actually making money in the housing market these days.
“The real estate market is like a fat man that can’t get up,” Kelman begins. “The U.S. government has modified loans, extended tax credits, lowered interest rates; we’ve fired a lot of our guns, and at this point the market is just going to have a long slow period of decline.”
Kelman is not alone in his ruminations. A new report from Macro Markets, which surveys a diverse group of economists, real estate experts, investment and market strategists, found 56 percent projecting negative home price growth for 2010. That number was 40 percent last month, so obviously less optimistic. The group predicts 10.5 percent appreciation in the next five years, and while that’s actually down from the 12.4 percent prediction in May, it does translate into about $1.7 trillion in increased aggregate household wealth by the end of 2014. Again, just predictions.
But here are some facts:
“The day after the tax credit ended, traffic to our web site dropped like a rock,” says Kelman. “People stopped signing up for tours, people stopped writing offers.”
“As few as 0.1 percent of mortgage modifications initiated under the Obama administrations signature foreclosure prevention program involve reductions of principal”
Good! The push to write-off principal was a push towards encouraging the prudent to begin acting imprudetly and the imprudent to act in an even more reckless manner. Stretch out the payments? Fine. But do not reward either bad or stupid behavior.
Like a beach ball batted from the upper deck at a concert, the market will eventually find a floor, and all these stimulus attempts will no more stop it than will the folks at the concert who bat the ball up into the air.
BTW I won’t be blogging next week. I will be on vacation in the Hamptons. While I am playing tennis, swimming, dining out and having a few nice Long Island Wines and maybe a few Long Island Iced Teas I will ponder the recession.
Main guage will be number of brand new model 5 series I see in Southamptong. I heard they are sold out already in new body style so lets see how many folks grabbed them up.
Shall we alert the media?
“BTW I won’t be blogging next week.”
You might be asking yourself how I can relate this survival story to real estate. You’ll just have to read the article. That being said the woman is a knucklehead- no shoes, no cell phone, no food, etc. She wouldn’t last long in New Jersey.
http://www.aolnews.com/nation/article/kelly-guzman-survives-11-days-in-rocky-mountain-forest-with-no-food-shoes/19527097
“The U.S. government has modified loans, extended tax credits, lowered interest rates; we’ve fired a lot of our guns, and at this point the market is just going to have a long slow period of decline.”
[4],
Fired Guns? More like a squadron of F-14’s.
Govt intervention never works. It can only provide a short term blip. In the long term, market forces (supply/demand) will lead to true price discovery. Drip, Drip, Drip. Before you know it, you have a flood.
10- Yikes: I too feel bad for our neighbors in Pa. I am not so sure that it is that great for Pa. because that leaves thousands of residents without any dollars coming in, which in turn leads to bankruptcies, unpaid mortgages, etc. The unemployed don’t tend to hold on to their money from UI funds, they spend it because they have no other choice. Lots of brouhaha about how we should cut off UI extensions now and Congress has been battling it out for weeks.
Stu – Thanks for keeping me updated on the financial bill (#98 -6/21) and Yikes – #9 – Yes, that would be me – living in the welfare state – also known as California.
I’m on vacation just now. I visited Victoria via the ferry out of Port Angeles for several days…train back to Portland this AM for a day @ the zoo. Back to the glorious state of CA by Tuesday. Trains, planes and automobiles…
Good times…
jj says:
June 24, 2010 at 7:55 am
BTW I won’t be blogging next week. I will be on vacation in the Hamptons. While I am playing tennis, swimming, dining out and having a few nice Long Island Wines and maybe a few Long Island Iced Teas I will ponder the recession.
come on John, a big baller like you should be taking real vacations. you know, the type that entail leaving the country.
(# 11 Nomad) Do I have stories for you, that tax credit caused bidding wars. My husband and I tried looking at that time and walked away because the infamous line was ” Well you are getting 8000.00 dollars back”, doesn’t matter when there is $50,000.00 – $100,000.00 of work that needs to be done. There was also a house on the market at the time for 479,000.00 and sold for 489,000.00 , Agent ” Well your getting $ 8000.00 what is $2000.00 more from your pocket”.
And yes people are that stupid
5-series in the Hamptons?
What are you trying to do? Count gardeners?
House Whine says:
June 24, 2010 at 8:25 am
10- Yikes: I too feel bad for our neighbors in Pa. I am not so sure that it is that great for Pa. because that leaves thousands of residents without any dollars coming in, which in turn leads to bankruptcies, unpaid mortgages, etc. The unemployed don’t tend to hold on to their money from UI funds, they spend it because they have no other choice. Lots of brouhaha about how we should cut off UI extensions now and Congress has been battling it out for weeks.
What is the other option? Carry these people forever?
The other option, IMO, is to get all our troops out of there and just carpet-Nuke the middle east.
it’ll save us $$$$$$ in the long run and hopefully wipe out 90% of the folks who hate us.
25- Yikes. You will find absolutely no disagreement with me about getting out of the Middle East. It’s like that old saying, “Guns or butter, but you can’t have both”.
As far as another option goes- jobs, jobs, jobs. I don’t think most of these people want to get a paycheck for not working, I think they want to be productive. Yes, there are anecdotal stories of some who don’t but most do. Honestly, I don’t know how to create jobs and I don’t pretend to know how. Isn’t that what my wonderful elected officials are supposed to be figuring out, instead of playing politics and wasting time?
Yikes, Whine
I see the current unemployment issue as proxy conflict between the citizens and the corporations.
Any real changes that could impact the unemployment situation would require a number of entrenched industries to be negativly impacted and most likely require some very real protectionist policies. That would promptly hurt many large industries and the corporate lobby’s pay the politicians way to well to allow that to happen.
Mass unemployment is a ticking time bomb anyway you look at it. You either address it or end up with civil unrest. The only way i see to address mass unemployment int he near term is WWIII and its associated conscription, a mass government jobs program similar to the WPA of the 30’s, or the rapid implementation of protectionist trade policies.
All of those options have definite negatives associated with them and the WPA option would require the money being used to prop up the banks and other corps to be pulled and used to fund the WPA 2.0 projects. That of course is not going to happen and therefore leaves us with WWIII or protectionism.
My guess is we get both and a lovely mix of 1999 russia and 2001 argentina lifestyles.
Just the new model only? One that just came out.
Q. I still love what do you say to a man with a brand new 3 series in Southampton?
A. How long before your repair work is done and you get back your 7 series from the dealer.
grim says:
June 24, 2010 at 8:41 am
5-series in the Hamptons?
What are you trying to do? Count gardeners?
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27- Well those are all very sobering thoughts for early in the a.m. I don’t see our government addressing the employment issue at all right now. Really, I don’t. You are right that it’s not going to end well. I am just tired of hearing people rail against the unemployed. They are not the appropriate target in this mess. But I guess they are a convenient one. We will just have to sit back and see how it all plays out. Now I am going to go shopping for a new summer wardrobe and help keep the economy going.
THE solution to our unemployment, our ned to defend the Middle East oilsupplies, and much of our current accounts defecit was missed by a rush to fill potholes and support high housing prices.
Had we taken the TARP/stimulus money and invested it in a crash program to build photovoltaic manufacturing facilities and wind generator factories, and combined that with a push to install solar cells, EVERYWHERE, we would have created manufacturing and supply jobs, installation and transport jobs, etc. &ll while reducing the demand for imported energy.
Combine that with a program to use wiind and solar to split water to power fuel cells for automobiles as well as for houses during periods when wind and solar are not able to produce the necessary juice, we would have had more jobs than we knew what to do with — 21st century jobs at that.
Cumon JJ a stay-cation? At least get a yacht and pull it up to Neptune’s Beach club.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxT_FnfSBKg
With three kids under the age of ten in tow long drives or flights are a nightmare. The moaning and groaning alone I got from flying to Disney world alone was enough to shoot myself. I can’t imagine Europe.
In fact I think Mohonk was only place I took them where it was so quick they did not complain. Even Jersey Shore was annoying
“I will be on vacation in the Hamptons”
D’Jais will be disappointed.
House 30
I agree with you in general, but as i have said before there are no innocent parties. most people have become accustomed to easy money and multiple safety nets. People are still demanding the status quo be reinstated even as more and more of them begin to realize the party is over. The government has failed the people, but the government is ultimatly a reflection of the people. Until people stop tolerating corruption, malfeasance, and general ineptitude so long as they think they can reap a benefit, then nothing will change.
The government will not act in the peoples interest until the people demand it do so. That requires more then parroting Fox or NYTimes.
If history is any indicator that will happen once the “pain” threshold of the population is surpassed and not before. What that threshold is in current times is anyones guess.
/ steps off of soapbox
re #3 – Sure assess Hasbrouck Heights taxes on a building owner and businesses in Teterboro and see what happens, the Jobs will leave NJ. More stupidity from our elected scamocrats.
Shore,
I thing your plan would have been wildly successful in the end, but i would add a nuke component to the energy infrastructure, preferably an advanced breeder program sited at hanford or the nevada test grounds. I think the potential offered by High Temp Gas Cooled (negatively stable)reactors is foolish to completely over look int he long run.
35- Hyde. Very well said! I love what you just posted. On that note, I depart to the world of consumerism at my local shopping mall. Carry on.
[12] final doom
I remember the SS-20. Could use one right about now.
Fit enough for Ironman but not for the MPD
http://www.jsonline.com/watchdog/noquarter/96770434.html?page=2
[40] joyce
It’s stuff like that which has me thinking that I will invest more time (and I will surely have that) in my first love—Politics.
I’ll still practice, but I figure that, if I keep overhead low, if I can get a decent book of business, I can live very nicely working part time. That leaves time for politics, and perhaps even locking horns with some attorneys here. That will be fun.
JJ
I may run into you in the Hamptons
Ket,
I have no bone to pick with nuclear. I studied nuclear engineering and have operated a reactor and believe nuclear has an important role in our energy production. That said, it is absurd for every reactor to be unique. Let’s settle on 2-3 designs and adopt the sites to the reactors.
Oh, but as for breeder reactors, perhaps but not liquid-metal cooled. The downside risk in a LOCA is just too high.
TBTF
http://www.hedgetracker.com/article/Bankrupt-BP–Worse-for-the-Financial-World-than-Lehman-Brothers
I wonder if we are going to get any Go Fluck yourself quotes directed at Timmay Geither during the G20 meeting?
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE65N1K420100624
C’mon, John. I know you make a decent buck and that you like nice things. For less thaan $2,000 per person, you can get first-class airfare to some great places. A stretch limo to the airport is not much more than $300 round trip. Getting another limo at the other end of the flight still keeps it below $11,000 to get to a decent place. At $1,000 a day for a week, you can be “away” away for less than $20,000. For three weeks it is just about $30,000.
The 6-8 weeks one gets to spend away each year should be total escapes from the other 44-46 weeks. Splurge a little. You will feel better for it.
Me thinks JJ could give Captain Cheapo a run for his money.
SHore
That said, it is absurd for every reactor to be unique. Let’s settle on 2-3 designs and adopt the sites to the reactors.
I agree, plug and play! it removes a substantial portion of the design and permitting barriers.
Oh, but as for breeder reactors, perhaps but not liquid-metal cooled. The downside risk in a LOCA is just too high.
Thats why i said High Temp Gas Cooled (HTGC) there are real world design that have been build so that in worst case scenario the containment building radiates heat at a high enough rate to handle the thermal component in a total cooling system failure. Hi temp gas cooled also eliminates a lot of the dangers of liquid cooling. As another side benefit HTGC reactors easily run at a high enough temperature to generate hydrogen through the thermal breakdown of water using the reactors waste heat ( not as the main cooling loop)
Shore,
For less thaan $2,000 per person, you can get first-class airfare to some great places
???? such as?
Ket,
The sad thing is that THE solutions are not hard to determine and I trust that DoE and various members of congress also know what we should do/ should have done.
Shore,
As i am sure you are aware, the issue with nuclear designs is that the original designs were based off of militray design meant to produce both weapons material and power. A reactor can only do one of those tasks very well or both of then so-so. There has been no real effort to put modern none weapons reactor designs into real world use.
The latest breeder technology allows what is currently considered high level nuclear waste to be used as fuel and also allows the non-fuel high level waste to be transmuted to lower level materials.
A large portion of what we currently call nuclear waste (i.e spent fuel rods) is actually viable fuel for the newer reactor designs.
We also have reactor designs where the waste from one reactor is fuel for the next level reactor.
granted many of these designs are still pilot scale, but if we spent even 1/10th of what we did on the banks on bringing these reactors to commercial scale then it would already be done.
re: # 50
cheapoair.com
First class from Newark to Honolulu around $2300.
Stu,
You have mail, via Gator.
When the plane is crashing do the still say brace brace brace?
According to Citi in a new strategy note. We’re in for a double dip for growth expectations, if not a complete double dip for the economy:
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-brace-for-upcoming-economic-downgrades-2010-6#ixzz0rmicYwzh
Double dips are tricky. My old GF used to like to say you can double dip yellow to brown but NEVER brown to yellow
jj[14];
Keep saying stuff like that and you move up Doom’s hit list.
JJ
was she ok with ATM?
Look for a White GMC Monster Truck the size of a trailor home on Montuk Highway with kids in back seat watching the DVD while I try to stay away from any nearby guns. I wish they would all fit in the third row.
Poser says:
June 24, 2010 at 10:21 am
JJ
I may run into you in the Hamptons
No, but she was actually into RTW but only one way.
Mr Hyde says:
June 24, 2010 at 11:33 am
JJ
was she ok with ATM?
It is true, now why do they call Camels the Ships of the Desert?
dubai property says:
June 24, 2010 at 9:08 am
We should all know that quality weblog is turn out to be lesser and lesser as there are a lot of new weblog pop up on internet everyday. Something it’s tough to locate a trusted blog which the content are of great high quality yet bring up excellent point. I would acquire valuable material by reading on quality post which aid to improve my expertise on this field.
“No, but she was actually into RTW but only one way.
Mr Hyde says:
June 24, 2010 at 11:33 am
JJ
was she ok with ATM?”
Something tells me that I should be glad that I have no idea what you to are talking about.
Goodbye, Italy.
Goodbye, France.
Spain out tomorrow?
hey NJ model to the US.
“A Nation of Trentons”
http://article.nationalreview.com/437053/a-nation-of-trentons/the-editors
“The Public Safety Employer-Employee Cooperation Act proposes to effect a similar transformation among police officers, firefighters, and other public-safety workers. Like teachers, the men and women who do this dangerous work are sympathetic and sometimes heroic figures — which is precisely why the rapacious union bosses choose to hide behind them. Lacking the evolutionary finesse that keeps most parasites from killing their host organisms, the American labor movement has driven the private firms that once employed its members offshore or into bankruptcy. Consequently, the only growth market remaining for the union movement is government: More union members today are employed by government than by the private sector”
So Matt Simmons either knows something that isnt being made public or has gone off of the deep end. Damned if i know which one it is.
“We’re going to have to evacuate the gulf states,” said Matt Simmons, founder of Simmons and Co., an oil investment firm and, since the April 20 blowout, the unflagging source of end-of-the-world predictions. “Can you imagine evacuating 20 million people? . . . This story is 80 times worse than I thought.”</i.
Legal workers of America are getting from all sides this week.
First I saw at Numbersusa.com that the Obama Administration was exploring ways to in effect grant amnesty to illegal immigrants by executive order, i.e., Obama would sign a paper and bypass Congress:
“Deferred action and parole, which give illegal immigrants the ability to seek a work permit and temporary legal status, are normally granted on a case-by-case basis. But the aide said the lawmakers have learned from “sources” that the administration is considering flexing its authority to grant the status on a mass basis. . .
Under the law, immigration officials can grant deferred action to temporarily postpone removing an illegal immigrant from the country. That status does not offer a guarantee that they won’t face deportation, but Jenks [of NumbersUSa]said illegal immigrants granted parole are often allowed to seek permanent legal status.”
Now this morning I see Mayor Michael Bloomberg and his new group “The Partnership for a New American Economy” want to get in on the act. Ues, the new group advocates good things like border enforcement and technology to allow employers to determine legal status of applicants.
Still I can’t trust them because they advocate amnesty for those here illegally and seem to want to increase legal immigration. According to the WSJ “One City Hall official said the coalition will try to focus on immigration as a “dollar and cent issue,” advocating that open borders help keep the U.S. more competitive.”
Yeah, it’s so nice to see billionaires look for cheap labor to make us “more competitive,” especially in a city with so many functionally illiterates and high school dropouts who will probably never make a decent living.
Go Mayor Mike, that’s right, the answer to our problems is more competition for our poor minorities and unemployed. Amnesty for illegal workers and open borders, that what this country needs when we have 10% unemployment.
I could just scream.
hyde (65)-
I like Simmons, but I’m gonna take a wild guess that he’s short a whole basket of drillers/riggers, etc.
Is that like being a few quarts short of a gallon?
yikes (63)-
I love Chile, but their 3-3-1-3 may play right into Spain’s hands.
Bielsa has been known to drop into a four-back shape- and he needs to do it tomorrow- but Chile only knows one way to play: attack for 90 minutes.
I think it will be the game of the WC to date.
“We’re going to have to evacuate the gulf states,” said Matt Simmons, founder of Simmons and Co., an oil investment firm and, since the April 20 blowout, the unflagging source of end-of-the-world predictions. “Can you imagine evacuating 20 million people? . . . This story is 80 times worse than I thought.
I could see where this might come to fruition, if the oil & dispersant toxic mix reaches a critical mass, causing significant air, as well as, water polution. Hopefully that won’t happen.
The bet of the year may be to take the guy Isner plays next at Wimbledon.
re #65 – Simmons was talking about the cracked casing and the oil plumes which are now confirmed by NOAA.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5in1bvys_xRdyRykcSyD-2Pgx6cugD9GH9NM01
confused (70)-
I think this is all bullshit. Everybody knows humans can live in an atmosphere completely composed of benzene, oil smoke and dispersant fumes.
hey, can i get a link to that Simmons stuff? Sorry, but I can’t find it. Also, I’m lazy and didn’t try very hard. ok.
extend and pretend: it’s going to be law.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703900004575324653874620696.html
“We’re going to have to evacuate the gulf states”
So much problems..What would a busy president do? Take a vacation of course! (show video of Obamabi golfing and partying – more than GWB during his 8 years) These M.Moore/MoveOn ads almost write themselves for November..
Strange, google just deleted MoveOn “General BetrayUs” ad from its cache..Seems to happen to a lot..
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/achenblog/2010/06/oil_spill_even_worse_worst-cas.html
re. Simmons
Round The World
Shore Guy says:
June 24, 2010 at 11:46 am
“No, but she was actually into RTW but only one way.
Mr Hyde says:
June 24, 2010 at 11:33 am
JJ
was she ok with ATM?”
Something tells me that I should be glad that I have no idea what you to are talking about.
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2010/06/23/UPI-NewsTrack-TopNews/UPI-97741277308800/
And the context for his evacuation statement:
Potential bad weather in oil cleanup mix
VENICE, La., June 23 (UPI) — A tropical wave in the Caribbean could move into the Gulf of Mexico carrying potentially more bad news for oil cleanup efforts, forecasters say.
“We’re going to have to evacuate the gulf states,” Matt Simmons, founder of investment oil firm Simmons and Co., direly predicted in a Washington Post article published Wednesday. “Can you imagine evacuating 20 million people? … This story is 80 times worse than I thought.”
AccuWeather.com said Wednesday the strength of the system expected to enter the gulf by early next week is questionable, but there is a risk of squalls and rough seas in oil slick and cleanup-containment operation areas.
Also troubling is the extent of the damage to the crippled Transocean Deepwater Horizon well that exploded April 20 and sank, killing 11 workers, the newspaper said. U.S. Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen, national incident commander, has said there are no indications of additional leaks on the gulf floor, but added the well could be damaged below the mud line.
“We’re mitigating risk on the relief well by drilling a second relief well alongside it,” he said.
Allen said the possibility of further damage is why the top kill effort last month was stopped. Officials feared that continued pumping of heavy mud into the well could damage the casing and open new channels for leakage into rock.
“I think that one thing that nobody knows is the condition of the well bore from below the blowout preventer down to the actual oil field itself,” Allen said during a briefing last week. “We don’t know if the well bore has been compromised or not.”
Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suspended creating offshore trajectory maps, The (New Orleans) Times-Picayune reported. NOAA said it temporarily stopped its offshore forecast because of the lack of recent observations that confirm significant amounts of oil flowing into offshore areas, among other things. Officials said the forecasts would resume if the threat returns.
75: So crazy it just might work.
Sean,
The Environmental Protection Agency says there’s been no significant harm to sea life, but marine scientist Vernon Asper of the University of Southern Mississippi says the levels are enough to kill fish.
Just like the EPA said the airborne dust at ground zero was safe after 9/11, right?
1+1 = 3?
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2010/06/obama-bad-times-bad-polls/1?csp=hf
snip
Not a good time for President Obama, and the polls are starting to reflect it.
Obama’s job approval rating is now down to 45%, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll; meanwhile, 48% disapprove of the president’s performance.
In perhaps worse news for the White House, 62% of adults surveyed feel the country is on the wrong track — the highest level since before Obama’s election in 2008.
snip
Americans are more pessimistic about the state of the country and less confident in President Barack Obama’s leadership than at any point since Mr. Obama entered the White House, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.
The survey also shows grave and growing concerns about the Gulf oil spill, with overwhelming majorities of adults favoring stronger regulation of the oil industry and believing that the spill will affect the nation’s economy and environment.
Sixty-two percent of adults in the survey feel the country is on the wrong track, the highest level since before the 2008 election. Just one-third think the economy will get better over the next year, a 7-point drop from a month ago and the low point of Mr. Obama’s tenure.
snip
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703900004575325263274951230.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
66-toomuchchange: I caught Mayor Bloomberg this morning on one of the news channels talking up the immigrant issue. He said we really need these immigrants because “they take the jobs Americans refuse to do”. Same old line, over and over again. I could just scream too.
73.Final Doom says:
June 24, 2010 at 1:49 pm
confused (70)-
I think this is all bullshit. Everybody knows humans can live in an atmosphere completely composed of benzene, oil smoke and dispersant fumes
Maybe they could ring the coast with large solar powered fans, all pointing at Cuba, to keep the bad air away from US land. Cuba could construct a plastic bubble over their island with a loan from Bernanke.
One hundred percent of the top general in Afghanistan’s approval rating of the president is negative.
Oh btw he also thinks that O’s entire cabinet has problems.
82 Shore/Keith:
“Not a good time for President Obama, and the polls are starting to reflect it.”
I heard News..uh I mean Obamaweek is available with your Dear Leader on cover! Have nice weekend with drooling over that
Why not? They also put zero down on their home?
“Nearly 1,300 prison inmates wrongly received more than $9 million in tax credits for homebuyers despite being locked up when they claimed they bought a home, a government investigator reported Wednesday.”
“The investigator said 241 of the inmates were serving life sentences.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37870056
Wow! Thank you! I always wanted to write in my site something like that. Can I take part of your post to my facial hair removal for women blog?
89, what’s the worse that can happen? some jailtime. :-)
BC (88)-
Clunkers For Houses?
Houses For Felons?
I’m glad to be witnessing the advent of the collapse of Western civilization.
escape (90)-
I’m beginning to warm to this Utah firing squad thingy.
You guys are all full of doom and gloom, Im going over to 89’s hair removal blog.
Dooooooood. Just caught Shutter Island. man what a crazy film.
You guys see this yet?
http://www.coldwellbanker.com/buyerbonus
Take Advantage Of A New Kind Of Homebuyer Credit.
The Coldwell Banker® Buyer Bonus Event is available nationwide. Participating homeowners will refund 3% of the accepted offer price, up to an $8,000* credit, to all buyers. There are no income or property eligibility requirements, and the credit is applied at closing.
“I’m glad to be witnessing the advent of the collapse of Western civilization.”
Doom,
You must be watching the euro/yen cross.
Coldwellbanker has the right attitude. Prioritize clients according to the ability to slash asking price. No more sihtting around sellers! Move!
Peace Out Suckas
“Take Advantage Of A New Kind Of Homebuyer Credit.”
What’s next? Employee pricing?
I smell opportunity . . . .
“WASHINGTON, DC — Fannie Mae (FNM/NYSE) announced today policy changes designed to encourage borrowers to work with their servicers and pursue alternatives to foreclosure. Defaulting borrowers who walk-away and had the capacity to pay or did not complete a workout alternative in good faith will be ineligible for a new Fannie Mae-backed mortgage loan for a period of seven years from the date of foreclosure. Borrowers who have extenuating circumstances may be eligible for new loan in a shorter timeframe.
“We’re taking these steps to highlight the importance of working with your servicer,” said Terence Edwards, executive vice president for credit portfolio management. “Walking away from a mortgage is bad for borrowers and bad for communities and our approach is meant to deter the disturbing trend toward strategic defaulting. On the flip side, borrowers facing hardship who make a good faith effort to resolve their situation with their servicer will preserve the option to be considered for a future Fannie Mae loan in a shorter period of time.”
Fannie Mae will also take legal action to recoup the outstanding mortgage debt from borrowers who strategically default on their loans in jurisdictions that allow for deficiency judgments. In an announcement next month, the company will be instructing its servicers to monitor delinquent loans facing foreclosure and put forth recommendations for cases that warrant the pursuit of deficiency judgments. . . ”
It is against the law for an attorney to counsel someone on how to rearrange their finances so as to fare better in bankruptcy. To the best of my knowledge, there is no collorary for those considering strategic default.
[94] essex,
I am told that the story is very loosely based on Fort Warren in Boston Harbor.
Fort Warren has a ghost story. That and the harbor are where the similarities end though. Nothing interesting or exciting ever happened there.
Does….Not….Compute
“Walking away from a mortgage is bad for borrowers and bad for communities and our approach is meant to deter the disturbing trend toward strategic defaulting.”
Captain, using my superior Vulcan logic I am unable to comprehend how you come to your conclusions. Clearly if the mortgage is bad for the borrower then the borrower would benefit from “walking away” from the loan. A community would benefit heavily from financially stable homeowners and would suffer terribly from cash poor, financially enslaved, residents.
These things do not make sense unless your need to deter strategic default stems not from your desire to help borrowers and communities but rather stop the bleeding.
Was that the PPT right there at the last minute?
actually last 3 minutes….
94: Saw it the other night. Didn’t see that ending coming.
“We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. …We have never made good on our promises… I say after eight years of this Administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started… And an enormous debt to boot.”
Treasury Secretary, Henry Morgenthau-5/39
Wantan
But its different this time!!
84
“they take the jobs Americans refuse to do” –
end welfare and unemployment benefits – tell the former recipients that the above jobs are what they will need to do to feed themselves. work starts tomorrow morning at 7:30 am.
If you are hungry, you may want to show up.
Mon- Contagion worries about EU
Tues- EU issues will not spread abroad
Wed- EU problems may spread to US
Thur- EU issues will not affect US GDP
Fri- EU problems not contained to region
Sat- Soccer news
Sun- Soccer news, repeat Mon-Fri
Honestly, is this a bipolar news media or what?
more on the ejumacayshun bubble:
http://www.marketfolly.com/2010/05/steve-eisman-frontpoint-partners-ira.html
PO’d #107: “end unemployment benefits” after paying into the system seems like if your auto company puts some ridiculous demands on you after you get into an accident. John can come up with a list.
For many “high skilled” people, not working at all (while looking for a good job or refining skills) makes more economic sense in the long term. And unemployment “insurance” is a vehicle that helps in that process.
Sometimes posts here read like something written by a medieval, racist feudal lord.
S
105. this rant from 1939..Maybe O should have his Churchillian speech on economy..
“We shall spend on public sector salaries..
We shall spend on union perks..
We shall spend in California..
We shall spend in Washington..
We will raise taxes..
We shall never cut spending, even if, which I do not for a moment believe, this Nation or a large part of it were to cut spending, then our Public Sector Workers Empire beyond the seas, financed by the taxpayers and foreign creditors, would carry on the struggle, until, in My good time, the New World, with all its power and might, steps forth to the rescue and the restoration of the old spending.”
Confused in NJ says:
June 24, 2010 at 1:44 pm
“We’re going to have to evacuate the gulf states,” said Matt Simmons, founder of Simmons and Co., an oil investment firm and, since the April 20 blowout, the unflagging source of end-of-the-world predictions. “Can you imagine evacuating 20 million people? . . . This story is 80 times worse than I thought.
This is a bunch of damn bullspit. Simmons is part of the damn doom and gloom crowd who are always looking for some damn stinking disaster to occur. You can throw his ass into the same damn can as Pretcher, damn Gerald Celente and the damn fool that runs that damn Prison Planet website. A bunch of pantywaist chickenshlts if you ask me.
Let’s get something straight–a little damn oil ain’t nothing to be running around shlting your damn pants about. BP will clean it up, just leave them the hell alone and let them do it.
You damn people are starting to make me feel like it’s damn 9-11 all over again. I’m not going to let you damn people steal my happiness. I went out and got me a new damn Iphone today just to make up for this damn doomsday crap you keep spewing. So, there, put that in your damn pipe and smoke it.
BC (96)-
Other than soccer, it’s all I watch.
re, did you really get one? Is it worth it?
I want want. Not to smoke, of course. Just waiting a while to skip a couple of generations and debating whether or not to wait ten more months.
Sastry, can we bring back heads on stakes, pa-leese. I <3 kabobs.
Relax, re, the insurance companies haven’t yet calculated min/max actuarial loss on the gulf, so you’re O.K. on the whole relo/cancer thing for a while. It’ll take months/years to decide whether or not it’s cheaper to let’em get sick or move’em.
Lib [98];
“What’s next? Employee pricing?”
You’re not far off. A real estate agency kicking back 3% [95] to the buyer sounds alot like the the deal an agent would get if they bought an MLS listed house for themselves and pocketed the buyer’s agent’s half of a 6% commission.
107 –
Your fellow Americans thank you for your support.
I take it you don’t have any problem with cheap illegal foreign labor, just the resulting increase in unemployment for legal workers.
What will you do when someday your own children and grandchildren can’t find a decent job due to the increased competition for jobs caused by excessive immigration?
Once again, I ask if anyone has any idea how we’re going to find the necessary money for energy, education, housing and jobs for the extra 100 million Americans we’re supposed to have by around 2050?
Or is the plan to continue to pocket whatever savings you can get and let the other guy pay for the true cost of cheap labor? That won’t work forever, you know.
I just can’t wait till all of our high horse notions and ideals bite us in the ass. That’s when it gets comical.
the US is at best, a temp agency. All the fat, mediocre middleclass whites thought they were players with their real estate ATMs. Got all pretentious and liked being “served” by the Mexican. Now the Mexican is affecting their salaries…now its a problem. Saw this coming 12 years ago when I my local contractors would pocket 85% of my pay and go to the strip club while their mexican boys did the work for the other 15%… That party is over. BITIN’ YOU IN THE ASS, USA.
117. I suspect that heart disease and cancer due to obesity will take care of a lot of that problem. We’ve got 130 pound 8 yr olds. They’ll be dead by 35.
Off topic..
Got a Kindle, had it for an afternoon and I already love the damn thing.
Amazon’s recent price chop sealed the deal for me.
Sorry, just not interested in lugging around an iPad as a reader.
grim (121)-
Reading is for dorkz. :)
Loaded up some Bourdain.
I’m sure you’ve got some kitchen stories to tell.
hi Grim, curious why you chose the kindle over the nook, may get the nook myself this weekend
Grim enjoy your Kindle and Bourdain. Kitchen stories are fun.
I like the Kindle because you can read it in the sun at the beach- with the ipad you can’t. I only wish the Kindle was backlit for night reading.
Pat the Mediaeval Princess says:
June 24, 2010 at 6:10 pm
Relax, re, the insurance companies haven’t yet calculated min/max actuarial loss on the gulf, so you’re O.K. on the whole relo/cancer thing for a while. It’ll take months/years to decide whether or not it’s cheaper to let’em get sick or move’em.
Lady, you’re bothering me. Now scram.
Barbara says:
June 24, 2010 at 8:01 pm
the US is at best, a temp agency. All the fat, mediocre middleclass whites thought they were players with their real estate ATMs. Got all pretentious and liked being “served” by the Mexican. Now the Mexican is affecting their salaries…now its a problem. Saw this coming 12 years ago when I my local contractors would pocket 85% of my pay and go to the strip club while their mexican boys did the work for the other 15%… That party is over. BITIN’ YOU IN THE ASS, USA.
What the hell? Look lady, at least the other terrorists here hold up a pretext that the love this damn county (with the notable exception of the rebel looking for a damn revolution-Clot, Final Doom or whatever the hell he’s calling himself nowadays), but you come in here removing all damn doubt that you hate America first. Let’s get something damn straight, no one, and I do mean no one, is taking a damn bite our of my ass. No one is gonna kick my ass or do any damn thing with my ass,
You apparently have NEVER had to deal with a red meat eating rocked ribbed damn AMERICAN, so I advise you to keep this liberal hate American first attitude at the damn door before you come here. We’ll all get along much better if you do.
Great post!
http://factcheck.org/2010/05/does-immigration-cost-jobs/
Do immigrants take American jobs? It’s a common refrain among those who want to tighten limits on legal immigration and deny a “path to citizenship” — which they call “amnesty” — to the millions of immigrants living in the U.S. illegally. There’s even a new Reclaim American Jobs Caucus in the House, with at least 41 members.
But most economists and other experts say there’s little to support the claim. Study after study has shown that immigrants grow the economy, expanding demand for goods and services that the foreign-born workers and their families consume, and thereby creating jobs. There is even broad agreement among economists that while immigrants may push down wages for some, the overall effect is to increase average wages for American-born workers.
Another wonderful day in the workers’ paradise that is NJ.
129- Essex- I don’t discount a lot of what the factcheck addressed. But there are other issues- no matter how you slice it the illegals do consume extra services from the public sector. Specifically, health care and education. Believe me, they ain’t really paying their fair share of these services! Honestly, I think it all comes down to the fact that they provide cheap labor and no way are businesses going to give that up too readily. But I have no animosity towards immigrants but we just don’t have the resources anymore to help all those in need.
Newark airport sucks!!!!!!!!!
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