Pending home sales slow drop dive plunge

From the BBC:

US home sales dive record 30% as tax break is removed

Contracts for sales of previously-owned homes plunged a record 30% in May, far higher than expected.

The figures came in a survey from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

A tax break, designed to boost sales, was withdrawn at the end of April, and a fall in deals was expected, but at around 12%, more than half the level actually recorded.

The break had galvanised the market, but these figures show it has floundered without it.

The NAR said its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in May, not only fell by a record amount, but hit a record low of 77.6, from 110.9 in April.

From Bloomberg:

Pending Sales of Existing U.S. Homes Fell 30% in May

The number of contracts to purchase previously owned houses plunged in May by more than twice as much as forecast after a homebuyer tax credit expired.

“Demand will be pretty depressed in the next few months,” Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc. in St. Petersburg, Florida, said before the report. “We’re still going to have a big overhang of foreclosures. There’s potential for prices to slow down a lot more.”

From Reuters:

U.S. May pending home sales plunge 30 pct-Realtors

The index is 15.9 percent lower than May 2009 and fell sharply in all regions of the country.

Contracts fell 33.3 percent in the South, the country’s largest region, and dropped 20.9 percent in the West. Contracts dropped 31.6 percent in the Northeast and fell 32.1 percent in the Midwest.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

324 Responses to Pending home sales slow drop dive plunge

  1. LoveNJ says:

    First

  2. Jim says:

    2nd-
    But only because I was busy looking for a job.

  3. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    3rd-
    But only because I was shopping on Amazon with my mortgage payment.

  4. BeachBum says:

    What a surprise!
    Fiddy, I think that house in Belmar is overpriced!

  5. New in NJ says:

    It’s a great time to buy!

  6. Nomad says:

    I guess is you are in a lower cost of living area and looking for a house under $200k then the $8k tax break means something but on the east coast, $8k is insignificant as a % of purchase price. Either way, if you need the $8k tax break to buy the home, you can’t afford it and if this is the case, the buyer will probably be delinquent shortly after buying the home …., default and you all know the drill after that, 24 mos of rent free living

  7. Nomad says:

    is = if

    TGIF

  8. BeachBum says:

    Nomad, you underestimate the ability of sheeple to be swayed by the media!

    Also many people accelerated a decision so I would expect to see weak numbers for several months.

  9. jp says:

    what does the articles mean in terms of price?

    this might give some people ideas on shorting:
    http://www.meettheboss.tv/articles/?contributorFullName=matt-buttell&mediaTitle=risk-assessment&articleId=432

  10. Nomad says:

    People are stupid.

    If I am going to buy a house, see something I like and jump on it, get it at the price I want and push to close the deal to get the tax break, that I can understand.

    I am getting the feeling that the scab on our wound (economic mess) is about to get ripped off. Too much stuff happening in the world now, we are all on overload.

  11. crossroads says:

    could this lead congress to extending once again? %30 less is pretty significant and its only pending another %10 could be canceled for various reasons

  12. crossroads says:

    Nomad

    its all good we’re in recovery. Hoboken RE is on fire!

  13. grim says:

    I guess is you are in a lower cost of living area and looking for a house under $200k then the $8k tax break means something but on the east coast, $8k is insignificant as a % of purchase price.

    Interesting, but if that is the case, why was the drop in the northeast roughly the same as in the midwest (as well as the South)?

    Contracts dropped 31.6 percent in the Northeast and fell 32.1 percent in the Midwest.

    If the credit wasn’t worth much in the Northeast, sales wouldn’t have rose, but they did. Likewise, when the credit was removed, sales shouldn’t have fallen as much. This seems to contradict your theory, no?

  14. crossroads says:

    13. This seems to contradict your theory, no?

    8k is 8k. if your in the market why not take advantage?

    what I want to know is do most who bought realize they’re 8k disappeared when the price of the home dropped in value. 8k less then %3 of a median priced home in NJ

  15. grim says:

    Wrong, it was a disguised form of DAP, when combined with FHA resulted in a huge reduction of the necessary down payment.

    What portion of the 3% down on a median jersey house is 8k?

  16. Pat says:

    So then, absent the 8k, we should see an across the board corresponding drop in house prices, equal to the 8k as percent median house price?

  17. gmin says:

    as result of a time limited cash incentive, and orchestrated media campaign, people were made to believe that they were buying at a historical bottom with historical low mortgage rates, in the beginning of a historical V shape recovery.

  18. Nomad says:

    Grim #13 – I did not look for or have the info you posted.

    My smart ass comment would be that those in the NE are fools as the credit as a % of purch price is significantly less than in lower cost of living areas.

    Perhaps an alternative view is those in the NE feel like prices are about as good as they can get and many who bought may have felt it was their best / last opportunity to own a home. For those in the NE who did get the $8k credit, I assume many were first time buyers or the homes were on the modest side – do you have info that would speak to this?

    Grim, it will be interesting to see what % of those who did get the tax credit ultimately default – think it will be higher than, = or lower than the national averages?

    Happy 4th,

  19. EssexHomeowner says:

    #12..Hoboken sales were on fire in June. We’ll see if that pace continues, but from what I am hearing from people I know in hoboken real estate is that prices continue to fall at a pace of about 1% per month. I like this website as it shows some good performance charts of local markets.
    http://www.newjerseyrealestateguys.com/gold-coast/hoboken-condo-inventory-sales-activity/

  20. grim says:

    Higher levels of default, no doubt.

    They will perform exactly like FHA loans that allowed for third party down payment assistance, horribly.

  21. BeachBum says:

    Why doesn’t anyone cover Monmouth County?

  22. grim says:

    As much as i wanted to, i never did because it was yet another Realtor board and mls to shell out fees to.

  23. a mad as hell reinvestor101 says:

    New in NJ says:
    July 2, 2010 at 6:31 am
    It’s a great time to buy!

    It was a better time to buy about three damn years ago before these stinking real estate terrorists set out to destroy the damn real estate markets. Did you see where they found some damn ruskies spying the other damn day? They were here to disrupt the damn market and there are some here that are only too happy to help these people with negative talk.

  24. grim says:

    There was a shore bubble blogger a few years back that focused on Monmouth and Ocean, but I think he burnt out/got bored.

  25. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    2011-2012 bag holders. Adjust those simulations, hamp #’s are set for a parabolic rise.

  26. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “There was a shore bubble blogger a few years back that focused on Monmouth and Ocean, but I think he burnt out/got bored.”

    Heard he was spending too much time/$ at Kelly’s. Come to think of it, a Kelly’s Iced Tea might be on the menu this Sunday.

  27. a mad as hell reinvestor101 says:

    Mr Wantanapolous says:
    July 2, 2010 at 8:12 am
    2011-2012 bag holders. Adjust those simulations, hamp #’s are set for a parabolic rise.

    This is a good damn example of what the hell I’m talking about. Note how a real estate investor is referred to as a damn “bagholder”. The damn ruskies love this sort of assistance.

  28. BeachBum says:

    That is a nice way to pass the 4th!
    I can understand how watching the Shore bubble could lead to burn out/boredom! Reality just does not seem to have come to most of the sellers – and the number of badly renovated houses in these beach towns would make even Home Depot workers gag!

  29. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Beachie —

    I happened to be in Belmar yesterday (beautiful day!!), and I rode by that place.

    Yeah, seriously overpriced at that number. I would suggest they lower it by 100 beaver pelts ($100K) to get traction. The selling season is rapidly melting away.

    Any buyers looking to get in before school starts had better be Under Contract by next week.

  30. New in NJ says:

    reinvestor101 #23

    Yeah, you’re probably right. It’s not a good time to buy.

  31. BeachBum says:

    Fiddy – that is what is killing me – the weather’s beautiful, time’s a-wasting and people have kept their high prices up too high for too long!

  32. a mad as hell reinvestor101 says:

    New in NJ says:
    July 2, 2010 at 8:22 am
    reinvestor101 #23

    Yeah, you’re probably right. It’s not a good time to buy.

    Hell no it’s not a good time to buy or sell. We need to suspend trading in the damn housing markets until we can get some damn sanity back. Why should someone be forced to sell a damn house at half the damn price it went for 3 years ago just so some damn bottom eating scum can get a damn house for next to nothing. I tell you what–I’m never giving my damn house away for next to damn nothing. Anyone who wants my damn house is going to pay the full price.

  33. NJCoast says:

    BeachBum says:
    July 2, 2010 at 8:06 am
    Why doesn’t anyone cover Monmouth County?

    We’re at the beach!

    Here’s one for you- if you don’t mind a little mold remediation.

    48 Broadway Ocean Grove MLS#20125306
    less than 2 blocks from beach
    Last sale price- 7/06- $850,000
    Current list price- $399,000
    Morgage on property-$765,000
    Property tax- $7940

  34. gary says:

    – 125,000 jobs, 9.5% UE

  35. BeachBum says:

    #32 – have certainly heard that one before!

  36. gary says:

    June decline in non-farm payroll largest since October 2009.

  37. BeachBum says:

    NJC – How I envy you!! Looked at the listing – indeed that is realistic pricing so hat’s off to the owner (is it a bank?). However, no the picky buyer in me comes out: I want a bigger lot and am not crazy about Ocean Grove – the beaches seem awfully crowed whenever I walkby. That’s why I love the north end of Belmar – the beach is actually not very crowded, except on the weekend of course, but een that is ok since the fishing pier gives you some breathing space…

  38. sas3 says:

    For us, the 8k was a freebie — didn’t even think about it till well after closing. We had to max out 401’s and deferred compensations to qualify. The govt gave me free money when I didn’t need it, and I am sure it won’t give me any if and when I desperately need it.

    I was in bank a decade+ ago for some cashier’s checks — I had to pay $5 or so per check, but it was free for people with 10k+ balance. It is free only when you can afford it.

  39. gary says:

    Private sector jobs up 83,000. 150,000 jobs needed month over month to sustain any kind of growth.

  40. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Time is of the Essence on the Selling Season.

    Here’s what usually happens…the buyers will want to get the home inspected first, to make sure it’s not the Money Pit. The inspector will take a week to 10 days to get in there and produce the report.

    With a mostly clean inspection report, the mortgage company will order the appraisal. The Appraisal Management Company will shop around for the cheapest appraiser they can find in the tri-state area. For a purchase in Belmar, they may send a guy from Sussex county to save $100 on a $600K transaction.

    It will take 4 weeks to get the appraisal thru underwriting. It’s now the middle of August. School starts in 2 weeks, and the kids aren’t even registered yet.

    Then, the night before the scheduled closing, the mortgage broker (the clown who promised to save the buyer a quarter point) says he needs additional docs. It seems one of the buyer’s bank statements is missing Page 5 of 5 (you know, the blank page they always include in your statement).

    Re-schedule the closing…but wait, the attorneys are going on vaca and their office is closed til after Labor Day.

  41. BeachBum says:

    no=bow
    een=even

    Sorry all!

  42. a mad as hell reinvestor101 says:

    BeachBum says:
    July 2, 2010 at 8:31 am
    #32 – have certainly heard that one before!

    Guess what? You haven’t heard any damn thing yet. Do you really think that the damn real estate investors of America are going to take this abuse from the damn real estate terrorists and commies without some sort of response?

    We’re tired of it. We’re tired of not being able to sell a damn house without some dirtbag showing up wanting to pay half the damn price. We’re tired of having put our damn money in a house and we can’t sell it. And above all else, we’re tired of the damn banks not lending us some damn money.

    There’s only so damn much that you can take before you explode and have to take to the damn streets.

  43. BeachBum says:

    even worse: a double header of typos –
    bow = now

    Wish I could buy a round (of drinks) to make up for it!

  44. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “We had to max out 401’s and deferred compensations to qualify.”

    Big mistake.

  45. RentinginNJ says:

    I guess is you are in a lower cost of living area and looking for a house under $200k then the $8k tax break means something but on the east coast, $8k is insignificant as a % of purchase price.

    I would argue that it is significant for a few reasons:
    1 – While RE prices are higher in the NE, many buyers have little cash. Until recently, cash didn’t matter. For a buyer going FHA, this is a significant lump of cash.
    2 – While $8k may not be a lot of $ in relation to the purchase price, $8k is still a big chunk of change. If I was thinking of buying sometime over the next year, I would consider accelerating my purchase to get a free $8k from Uncle Sam. You simple borrowed future demand. People that would otherwise be shopping this summer have already bought.
    3 – There is a physiological element to “taking away the punch bowl”. Buyers may be sitting on the sideline waiting for the extension. Why buy now? You may miss out on next goodie bag from the govt.

  46. NJCoast says:

    Deflation certainly applies to the lobster market. ShopRite has extended its sale of $5.99 per lb lobsters through July 4th. They’ll even steam them for free.

    Serving suggestion:

    Serve still warm on the beach with melted butter, cole slaw and corn with an ice cold dirty martini. Ahhhh.

  47. BeachBum says:

    NJC – that is cruel – I’m calling my mother right now!!

    And sending her to Shop Rite so that I can live vicariously through more than own group of beachies!

  48. #21 – Why doesn’t anyone cover Monmouth County?

    There are people who want to, but they’re all stuck in traffic on 35.

  49. BeachBum says:

    What – too cheap to take the GSP?

  50. #49 – What – too cheap to take the GSP?

    Hey, that’s like a $1 that could be used to buy something at Whole Foods…

    …. not sure what. Maybe a 1/4 of an apple, but something at least.

  51. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    NJC [46],

    Keep your phone charged.

  52. Jamal Van Jones says:

    There are people who want to, but they’re all stuck in traffic on 35.

    LOL!

  53. Cindy says:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-01/how-to-make-an-american-job-before-it-s-too-late-andy-grove.html

    An opinion piece for Bloomberg by Andy Grove of Intel

    How to Make an American Job Before It’s Too Late

    A bit of an eye opener for me…

    “….Not only did we lose an untold number of American jobs, we broke the chain of experience that is so important in technological evolution. As happened with batteries, abandoning today’s “commodity” manufacturing can lock you out of tomorrow’s emerging industry.”

  54. Stu says:

    – 125,000 jobs, 9.5% UE

    Unemployment already down to 9.5%, slowly getting things right thanks to Obama.

  55. RentinginNJ says:

    Hey, that’s like a $1 that could be used to buy something at Whole Foods…

    Squash on sale for $0.99/lb at Whole Foods this week!

  56. BeachBum says:

    A pound of squash – sounds like the RE market!

  57. me@work says:

    Renting, 55

    Grow your own. One seed packet $0.99 (asian market) or $1.99 at Kmart. One 3’x 3′ patch of dirt. Water. Time.

    You get: 25 or more pounds of squash. Or pick ’em early for “mini squash” medley (we grew patty-pans last year and this year is yellow crook neck.

    :)

    sl

  58. chicagofinance says:

    crossroads says:
    July 2, 2010 at 7:16 am
    13. This seems to contradict your theory, no? 8k is 8k. if your in the market why not take advantage? what I want to know is do most who bought realize they’re 8k disappeared when the price of the home dropped in value. 8k less then %3 of a median priced home in NJ

    X: The 8K was in the selling price, and to the extent that even more demand was pulled forward, it can be argued that buyers paid far more than 8K more than they would have otherwise……but people are easily distracted by discrete items like a tax credit, while being blissfully ignorant of what actually happens.

  59. chicagofinance says:

    Organic Gummy Bears….$0.99

  60. BeachBum says:

    organic gummy bears – a contradiction in terms? Although of course organic ≠ healthy…

  61. NJCoast says:

    Beach Bum-

    Keep an eye on this one. Its in foreclosure and about to go to auction. I’m sure it will go back to the bank. There are lots of secondary mortgages that will get wiped out in foreclosure. Owner (well until the auction)is a NJ realtor.

    314 5th Ave. Belmar
    MLS# 21000915
    Last sale-9/05- $1,479,000
    List proce-$1,095,000
    Town assessment- $738,700
    Prop. taxes-$13,629

    I looked at this one- Main house is good-new kitchen and baths. Nice pool.

    There is a seperate apartment w/ its own entrance in the main house which I thought was odd and a 2 bd carraige house in the back that needed some work. Lots of rental opportunities.

    Might be worth a lowball to the bank.

  62. Final Doom says:

    Housing market is dead. Only players now are either complete suckers or very sharp investors. Nothing left to discuss until the shooting starts.

    There is, however, excellent soccer for the next two days.

    Don’t take Holland. It’s a sucker bet. Their backs cannot handle what Brazil will throw at them. Conversely, Brazil is a wall at the back.

  63. BeachBum says:

    Thanks – in that case does one give a low ball to the bank before the auction? How do you find out who the bank is? Since I’m ovrseas all this gets a bit more complicated…

  64. Jamal Van Jones says:

    Unemployment already down to 9.5%, slowly getting things right thanks to Obama.

    From CalculatedRisk –

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/june-employment-report-100k-jobs-ex.html

    The decrease in the unemployment rate was because of a decline in the participation rate – and that is not good news.

  65. BeachBum says:

    I put an offer on the house across the street from that one last year, but got nipped out at the enpost. Although today I am glad I did – wasn’t much house for a fair chunk on change.

  66. meter says:

    ““We had to max out 401’s and deferred compensations to qualify.”

    Big mistake.”

    Agree. You’re just throwing good money after bad.

  67. grim says:

    The Andy Grove piece is tremendous.

  68. meter says:

    I’m ready to admit that I was 100% wrong on Obama.

    I’ve said this before: the Republican party had better get started vetting its Presidential candidates because if that fcukwit Palin is even mentioned in the same breath as ‘ticket’, moderates will run in the other direction again.

    We’ve given the ‘dumb’ prez a go and now the ‘too smart for his own good’ route has ended up in catastrophe. Let’s give the ‘slightly above average intelligence but road tested and has a track record of doing what he says’ guy a try.

  69. jamil says:

    64 Stu: Why are you talking to yourself?

  70. BlindJust says:

    55 Rent
    “The unemployment rate dropped to the lowest level since July 2009. But it fell because 652,000 people gave up on their job searches and left the labor force. People who are no longer looking for work aren’t counted as unemployed.”

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Payrolls-drop-by-125K-jobless-apf-711965434.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

    Remind me to send him a Christmas card…

  71. Cindy says:

    67 – Grim

    Thank you Grim. It made sense to me but to have you like it validates the information for me.

  72. jamil says:

    68: What proof of any kind you have the IQ levels of Obambi, Bush or Palin?

    Obamabi was race, eh, affirmative action student who got to good schools solely because of his race (and leftist views). Are you aware of any IQ tests showing O is intelligent?
    Has he done or completed anything in his life indicating he is even remotely intelligent? Is his approach to, say, Iran, or efforts to control the economy showing high levels of understanding of anything?

  73. Cindy says:

    http://pragcap.com/the-failure-of-capitalists-to-act-like-capitalists

    …a corporate savings glut…

    Do you incentivize reinvestment of profits? How can we actively participate as a nation in our own recovery? We need to focus on jobs.

  74. BeachBum says:

    Totally agree on the Andy Grove piece – should be required reading and ACTION by everyone in the Administration. Seems so obvious but the Ivory Tower guys don’t live in the real world!

  75. meter says:

    The sad thing about that Andy Grove article is that he feels the need to apologize for coming off as protectionist.

    Every nation in the world is protectionist to some extent – take a look at some of the EU trade laws for example (e.g. the French with champagne).

    There is a difference between protecting your population from a trade perspective and building a wall Buchanan-style.

  76. BlindJust says:

    44 Want/66 Meter
    I’d assume that, at the very least, a person should contribute the required amount up to the company match. If your employer matches dollar for dollar, then that’s a 100% return.
    So the question is whether a person, with the means, should contribute to the max of 16,500. I’d say that this decision would rest on:
    1. Your current and estimated future (until retirement) tax rates
    2. Estimated Years to retirement
    3. Estimated change in rates upon retirement
    10K invested after tax (assumed to be 40%) would be worth $15,919 in 20 yrs at a 3% (5% * .6) rate. The 10K pretax would be worth $26,532 at 5%. The estimates would determine whether this is the right decision, no?

  77. BlindJust says:

    (my mistake – used 5% instead of 3)…
    10K invested after tax (assumed to be 40%) would be worth $10,836 in 20 yrs at a 3% (5% * .6) rate.

  78. BeachBum says:

    #75 – the whole protectionist argument is a shell game and a key part of the brainwashing program to get us to think it is bad to look out for our own interests. And Friedman is perfect at repeating the Central Committee themes while trying to sound like he’s on our side (the NYT generally does this very well too).

  79. meter says:

    @76 – both assumptions presume you are putting your hard-earned money into this rigged market.

    I just wouldn’t do that.

  80. Mr Hyde says:

    The andy grove piece is spot on.

    In short we have to focus on long term prosperity as opposed to short term profits.

    The only way Grove’s ideas are brought to fruition is through a trade war.

    I say we fire the first shot in said war!

  81. meter says:

    @72 –

    I realize you are incapable of objective thought, and that you are a rabid, disgusting partisan hack, but I’ll respond at my own peril.

    Obama taught Constitutional Law at U Chicago. I am operating under the assumption that you’d have to be of above-average intelligence to do so.

    Palin came in second place at a state beauty pageant and keeps Russia under close surveillance from her porch.

    Intelligence is measurable, but in lieu of that is sort of like pr0n: you know it when you see/hear it.

  82. meter says:

    Goal Robinho. Gonna be a long day for the men in orange.

  83. Cindy says:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lloyd-chapman/jobs-report-proves-congre_b_633547.html

    Here’s another idea: Support small business…

    “..The most recent data released by the Obama administration indicated Textron, a fortune 500 company, was the largest recipient of federal small business contracts. Textron received over $775 million in government small business contracts in a single year.

    H.R. 2568 would end the abuses and redirect over $100 billion a year in existing federal infrastructure spending to legitimate small businesses.”

  84. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    Blind [76],

    My bad, read his/her post wrong. Thought they liquidated 401k to qualify for loan. Need a drink!

  85. BlindJust says:

    Ok – so use 3% pre tax (5 yr cd)
    $18,061 vs $8,572…

  86. BlindJust says:

    84 – it’s on me … what’s your poison?

  87. NJCoast says:

    Beach Bum-

    Bank of NY for the Belmar house. Some seasoned investors have contacts at the bank and agree on a price at the auction. Most banks will refer you to the listing realtor until they take the house back at auction.

  88. Mr Hyde says:

    re protectionism.

    The question boils down to, do we want to live like the chinese and beholden to foreign nations for our core manufacturing capability,or pay a short term price and rebuild american manufacturing?

    or put another way, are quarterly corporate profits that make wall street happy in the here and now worth the impoverishment of substantial segments of the american population do the atrophy of american manufacturing.

    if we were smart we would also consider it a national security issue. We simply do not have the manufacturing capacity to pull off a feat such as was dont in the WWII build up. The capacity no longer exists in the US and a large % of the critical components of our military hardware are ultimately sourced from foreign sources that could end up being enemies in future conflicts or simply cut off from our supply chain.

  89. jamil says:

    81 “Obama taught Constitutional Law at U Chicago.”

    This is the guy who publicly touted how he wanted to be president of all 57 states.
    you think teaching job is a proof of IQ, and not say, the result of affirmative action, ie need to hire leftist african-american regardless of IQ?

  90. Mr Hyde says:

    …due to the atrophy of american manufacturing.

  91. jcer says:

    I am absolutely certain Obama is smarter than Bush(Drugs?) or Palin(Born this way?) and is probably smarter than McCain(Old??) as well. That is why I really despise the man, his leftist views and ideology are more important that actually doing what’s right.

    Given that I knew he was wholly unqualified to be president, the guy has never had a job in the real world, he is so out of touch with the American public it is sick. It is upsetting to me that he got the nomination and was elected.

  92. Juice Box says:

    re #26 – re: a Kelly’s Iced Tea might be on the menu this Sunday.

    I will be in Spring Lake most of the weekend. Let me know if you are headed over, I’ll join you for one or two.

  93. meter says:

    @93 –

    I think it’s cute how his ‘leftist’ views have benefited the moneyed/banker class more than any other.

    I agree that he’s been a train wreck, but open your eyes: it’s not been a case of pure left-wing policy enacted.

  94. gary says:

    On the way back from Gettysburg yesterday… a huge billboard that read: “Where Is The Birth Certificate?” No further explanation required. I guess it was a message from “those” people who cling to their guns and religion. Just saying.

  95. BeachBum says:

    #76- these calculations show that this is exactly one of the peas in the shell game: there is no way that US workers can save on their own for a decent retirement with interest rates that have been so low for over 10 years and will be for another 10 years. In response, people tried to make money flipping real estate, the banks facilitated and when the ponzi scheme fell apart, the tax payer bailed out the banks and is now being told there’s no more money to create jobs. Joke’s on us. Greenspan should be in jail.

    As part of the scheme, we’ve also been told that company retirement plans are too expensive and therefore US companies must terminate retirement plans in order to remain competitive. Meanwhile, they’ve offshored jobs anyway. I’m a bit worried that Andy Grove and others are a day late and a dollar short in calling for an end of the shell game.

  96. jcer says:

    Hyde the overseas sourcing of military components is definitely a problem and should be addressed, we need manufacturing in the USA, it is a matter of national security. We needn’t assume that our supply can last/our supply lines stay open if a war were to break out.

    From the perspective of reducing risk on the civilian side of things, you absolutely have much more certainty about what your getting and how much your paying if you source domestically.

  97. me@work says:

    jcer 91

    Atleast Reagan knew his limitations and surrounded himself with the very best, capable and seasoned cabinet and then he acted pretty much as figurehead.

    When someone surrounds themselves with “yesWe!Can!men” and ignores reality you end up with our current conundrum.

    I don’t know what the next 5 years holds. ‘Nuff said, that I am fearful.

    sl

  98. maylook1day says:

    Factory orders drop 1.4%

    “look ma, a dead cat!”

  99. Juice Box says:

    re: Auctions down the shore.

    There was a piece done on the Auctions down in Monmouth a few weeks ago in the APP I believe.

    Plenty of Vultures at the auctions but no bidding. Nearly everything is going back to the banks.

    With somewhere around 103 months of shadow foreclosures looming there is no rush to overpay.

  100. jcer says:

    Reagan was not a good president, IMHO. But I at least felt that he was more genuine, he felt he was doing what was right, it was justified and it needed to be done. I respect Reagan though even though I don’t agree with the policies he put in place.

    Obama is basically a man child, a true sign that america is going down the crapper.

  101. meter says:

    @87 –

    I guess a 401l/IRA contribution would be useful if self-directed and one were able to short.

    I certainly wouldn’t go long the woeful selection of Fidelity/Vanguard mutual funds companies typically trot out there.

  102. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [46] coast

    That’s a bad memory.

    For my DC bachelor party, my co-clerks took me to DC Coast on K St. I got wasted on dirty martinis, and so sick that to this day, I cannot stomache the smell of a green olive.

  103. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [96] jcer

    Why we aren’t dusting off Exon-Florio for more than port management is beyond me. That is an easy stealth protectionist measure that this admin. can implement.

  104. Mr Hyde says:

    SL

    the devil of our own making is coming for his pound of flesh whether we like it or not, the question for us at this point is how many pounds are we going to promise before we wake up.

    I honestly believe that some of the current politicians should be charged with treason for their actions.

    Passing bills and claiming that there is no way to know whats in them before making them law???? do we live int he twilight zone???

    in the end the politicians must be held accountable and the corporations disgorged from the political process if we want to survive as anything resembling the american legacy.

  105. meter says:

    Maicon is nasty good.

  106. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [91] Jcer

    Last fall, I was having dinner in Cranford, and I met a retired exec. who informed me that Obama, who did work briefly in the private sector, worked in his division. Obama was under him but not a direct report.

    He said that Obama was memorable for not being memorable, that he had no demonstrable aptitude for work in the private sector, and he was pretty much just “there.”

    In one of his books, Obama spoke about working briefly in an office in the private sector. He likened it to “being behind enemy lines” (Obama’s words).

    That said, Obama is dealing with the banksters because he has to, not because he wants to. Meter is correct, but Meter also assumes that Obama is acting willingly. I think otherwise.

  107. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [84] bob

    That explains it.

    I wondered why you were criticizing sas3. I thought that deferring all that income in order to qualify tor the credit was a brilliant stroke. When you criticized it, I was left wondering what I had missed.

  108. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [74-80]

    Andy Grove’s ideas are not news to readers of the NJREReport.com.

    We’ve been covering that perspective for the past year, at least.

  109. Mr Hyde says:

    if people think its ugly now…

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/07/01/expired-unemployment-bene_n_632778.html

    What happens when the numbers of those drowning in debt, unable to find a job, and no longer able to access unemployment benefits swells.

    The banks are toast as loans wont be paid and civil unrest goes through the roof.

    Clot,

    I think you timing may be off. I think we see some serious unrest next summer,as the number of people who have lost all options and have nothing left but debt are about to explode over the next 6 months.

    The government will be forced to institute a WPA 2.0 or find a very large war to jump into, very quickly.

  110. Final Doom says:

    Discussing Bojangles isn’t worth the energy in my fingers. He is a moron, Uncle Tom and corporate/bankster puppet. He reminds me more of Chance in Being There than Reagan did (which is saying something). THINGS ARE SO F’ED UP WE DON’T EVEN HAVE A BUDGET.

    Think about that. Has that ever happened before (with the exception of Zimbabwe)???

    We are so fcuking fcuked.

  111. meter says:

    Look, if you watched any of the presidential debates with any level of objectivity, it was painfully obvious that Obama’s ability to speak to the questions asked and articulate his answers intelligently far exceeded that of his opponents.

    This is not necessarily a sign of pure intelligence, but put the other way, McCain’s, Palin’s, Romney’s, Thompson’s performances certainly convinced me that they would underperform in the same vein as Bush.

    As jcer pointed out, an intelligent president with evil intentions is as, perhaps more, dangerous as a moron with good intentions.

    I’d say Reagan was a President with average intelligence but generally good intentions.

    Obama is intelligent with, I would say questionable intentions. They are certainly inconsistent and wreak of cronyism at both ends of the social spectrum.

    Bush was a moron with bad intentions – rampant cronyism and warmongering done wrong. The worst of all possible worlds.

  112. Shore Guy says:

    “- the weather’s beautiful, time’s a-wasting and people have kept their high prices up too high for too long!”

    Like thay are just going to give it away. It is at the shore, for goodness sake.

  113. NJCoast says:

    Juice,BC-

    I’ll be at Allenhurst Beach Sunday night watching Asbury’s fireworks, feel free to stop by for a c*cktail.

  114. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    “I think you timing may be off. I think we see some serious unrest next summer,as the number of people who have lost all options and have nothing left but debt are about to explode over the next 6 months.”

    As Gerald Celent always puts it, “When people lose everything, they LOSE IT!”

  115. Yikes says:


    New in NJ says:
    July 2, 2010 at 6:31 am

    It’s a great time to buy …

    weapons and ammo?

    Brazil just totally outclassing Netherlands. Netherlands lucky to be down 1-0

  116. Yikes says:

    Nomad says:
    July 2, 2010 at 7:04 am

    People are stupid.

    And uninformed and clueless.

    But let’s not rip Jamil too hard this early on a holiday weekend.

  117. meter says:

    Dutch are flopping all over the place. I hate this game sometimes.

  118. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    “What happens when the numbers of those drowning in debt, unable to find a job, and no longer able to access unemployment benefits swells.”

    Personal opinion is that you see little corporate spending of those cash reserves because CFO’s know those are going to become operating funds in the not too distant future. You likely won’t see QE2 until those are exhausted.

  119. Nomad says:

    So Grim, is the real estate end game for the Gov’t to keep shoring it up (no pun) and eventually hope that housing prices start to rise and we grow our way out of the housing mess?

    There was a time that this type of strategy would have worked but not so sure it will work in today or tomorrows world.

    Hope everyone has a happy 4th.

  120. jamil says:

    91 jcer “I am absolutely certain Obama is smarter than Bush”

    So this is article of faith, like that se-x craced poodle rapist who insists that Global Warming claims are true because he says so.

    Let’s evaluate Obambi’s IQ based on his actions as a President. He believed that Iran will stop A-bomb if he sends them love letters and insult Bush. Unexpectedly, Iran continues with the bomb. We have pretty solid prima facie evidence that Obamabi is dumb as hell, ie clueless kid from faculty lounge placed in real world, which, shockingly, does not work according to what his leftist buddies at gender studies lecture said.

  121. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [1120] jamil

    This whole argument misses the point.

    As one who has studied extensively in this area, I am convinced that the relative IQ of the CoC is as material to the success of his presidency as is his hair color.

    Not to mention the fact that IQ is being measured by a poll.

    Enough already. As Galaxar would say “your words are grating on my ear nubs”

  122. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [121] redux

    Enough already is direct to both sides of the debate, BTW.

  123. meter says:

    Waiting with bated breath to hear Jamil’s solution for getting Iran to stop development of nukes.

    Bush’s was _____? Whatever you want to classify his approach, it was obviously unsuccessful.

    Obama’s solution is more sanctions. Won’t work.

    Yours, captain genius?

  124. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [115] yikes

    Personally, I would love to see a price spike in ammo and shiny right now. Got plenty of both.

    Bob Want: Are you still long the loonie, and if so, how r u holding? FXC?

  125. meter says:

    From previous thread: hope you did take that Netherlands line!

  126. jamil says:

    Final comment.

    123: “Waiting with bated breath to hear Jamil’s solution for getting Iran to stop development of nukes.
    Obama’s solution is more sanctions. Won’t work.
    Yours, captain genius?”

    Simple.

    1: Bomb the nuke facilities, or
    2: Covert support for Israeli attack

    At minimum, credible threat of 1 or 2. Any other approach is waste of time. As for Bush getting results in Iran. Nothing wrong with first trying diplomacy or sanctions (at least Bush got unilateral support for sanctions in UN, unlike now with Russia deciding to sell missiles and our allies voting with Iran).

  127. jcer says:

    Nom 106, my point exactly! If the guy didn’t last in the private sector for at least a year, he was basically an intern. Out of touch with the common man, has never really worked a day in his life!

  128. Mr Hyde says:

    here is a fun partial solution to unemployment. Immediately and aggressively deport all illegal immigrants.

    There are currently aout 12 million or so per latest estimates i have seen. Assume 60% of them hold jobs. you just created about 7 million jobs for US citizens.

    This has been done twice in US history. Once by Hoover and once by Trueman. The name of Truman’s operation wouldn’t be so popular today…

  129. jcer says:

    Hyde, that would work in 1930 but, Americans are so soft those jobs are the jobs they wouldn’t want to do, especially for the pay offered. I would think it would actually force smaller businesses to go under. Not exactly what we are looking to do right now.

  130. Mr Hyde says:

    Jcer,

    It wouldnt be a panacea, and you are right that many would scoff at the available jobs. but lets see how long they scoff when they unemployment checks stop and they have an empty belly.

    Realistically, lets say that only 50% of the 7 million “open” jobs were readily available or accepted by us citizens. 3- 3.5 million jobs is still a huge #

    Another nice side effect is that you remove a significant strain on the US health care system, as you would see a noticeable reduction in the flood of uninsured patients into hospital ER’s and on social welfare systems.

    I just think we should enforce our southern border the same way mexico enforces their southern border.

  131. r says:

    “There was a shore bubble blogger a few years back that focused on Monmouth and Ocean, but I think he burnt out/got bored.”

    That was my blog. The Jersey Shore Real Estate Bubble.

    I started in April 2005 and quit in May 2007 shortly after kid #2 came a long and I started to study for the CFA.

    Prices have come in at the Shore in the past few years but some towns are holding there own. Houses in the $500 to $750k range seem to go quick in towns like Monmouth Beach, Little Silver, Oceanport, Fair Haven, and Shrewsbury. There are a glut of homes in the same towns priced over $1 million.

    The large number of million dollar homes coming on the market I believe are coming from two sources. Source #1 are real estate / mortgage professionals who have not pulled in over 6 figures since 2007. I think they are finally giving up their Mcmansions. The second source of million dollar homes are Wall Streeters that work in equities. The equity market from a commission earning standpoint has been miserable for at least 9 months. Moreover, more trades are going electronic, bypassing desks and exchanges. Rumor has it a large equity desk in Monmouth County is going to move back up to the city soon.

  132. Juice Box says:

    re: #128 – Hyde backlash against the janitors and gardeners is not going to do anything, they would not be paying much in taxes either way. There are 12 million of them doing the work that another 40 million won’t do.

    For real change, I say deport the 40 million that refuse to work.

  133. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [127] jcer

    When JFK was campaigning in WV (before Daddy bought him the state), a coal miner asked him a question. He said “Mr, Kennedy, is it true that you are a rich man’s son who never did a day’s hard work in his life?” Kennedy answered, “yeah, I suppose so.”

    The coal miner clapped him on the back and said “Mister, you ain’t missing anything.”

    Separately, we lionize Kennedy, but in reality, we do so only because he got killed. Aside from one foreign policy crisis well-handled, his was a mediocre and uneventful presidency. There was a lot of speculation that he would not be re-elected. Then he went to Dallas and everything changed. . . .

  134. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [132] juice

    “For real change, I say deport the 40 million that refuse to work.”

    Refuse to work? I’d say its time to introduce the Panopticon.

  135. Juice Box says:

    Nom – re” one foreign policy crisis”

    Are referring to the Cuba Missile Crisis? I gather keeping you and your parents from being vaporized was just well-handled.

    How about sending Federal Marshals to kick George Wallace’s ass if he did not move out of the way?

    No way bojangles has those kind of stones.

  136. jamil says:

    135 “re” one foreign policy crisis””

    That crisis happened only because Soviets saw JFK as a weak, clueless president. Thank god that sort of dangerous escalations for that reason cannot happen anymore.

  137. Final Doom says:

    Juventus bitch Felipe Melo killed Brazil.

  138. Final Doom says:

    meter (123)-

    I’d say a few tactical nukes in key Iranian hotpsots should do the trick.

  139. Final Doom says:

    jcer (129)-

    Both parties seem to be willing to cut loose Americans as their UE bennies run out. Bet they’ll take those jobs when that happens.

    In case anyone is uncertain, we’ve entered a Depression.

  140. Outofstater says:

    #139 Yes it would but I’m afraid it would let the genie out of the bottle too. The next time someone, anyone, uses a nuke, the unthinkable becomes thinkable and then workable and then inevitable. I’d rather not cross that line. Too scary for me. Sometimes I miss the good old days of the Cold War and the MAD doctrine.

  141. Yikes says:

    Amazing rally by Netherlands. Lucky goal on the Sneijder cross just snowballed. Phenomenal game. Hopefully Argentina-Germany can duplicate it.

    I put small $ on Van Persie to be the tournament’s leading scorer (won’t happen) and Argentina to win it all (could happen).

  142. BeachBum says:

    Re the David Stockman quote: how does one liquidate labor?

  143. Shore Guy says:

    A quick check in from the porch:

    RE prices are still too high, Stu and Gator are still vacationing, and Nom is still employed?

  144. meter says:

    This is smart planning. We should do this at a national level and sell back to the Chinese (who will be rich and ready to plunder our goods by the point of maturity).

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/38056667/

  145. meter says:

    Someone please make the case for me continuing to shell out $142/month to Crapcast.

    I hate this company more than any other.

  146. Shore Guy says:

    “does one give a low ball to the bank before the auction?”

    Beach,

    I get the sense that before auction the banks do not want to tke a lowball offer on the theory that some sucker might offer a “reasonable” (read at or above the value the bank is claiming on its books) price. Even if the home does notsell t auction and they take it back, the banks seem to hate the thought of accepting a realistic price because of the effect on their books; better to hold onto a fantasy book price than to get rid of the asset.

    My philosophy is “all they can say is no,” so give it a go, but never agree to even match whatever price you ofer the first time.

  147. grim says:

    OTA HD, Hulu, Netflix, streaming from the networks, etc.

    You can get content as long as you have broadband. Not free, but considerably cheaper.

  148. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    Oranje schakelt Brazilië uit en bereikt halve finales

  149. NJGator says:

    Shore 144 – Checking in from Vegas! The Beatles Cirque du Soleil show at The Mirage was visually stunning. The Encore has been a surprisingly decent place to gamble, and Captain Cheapo has not had to pay for a meal yet. He even found a Starbucks that takes his Harrah’s Comp points at a 1:1 rate.

    In local news, Lil Gator was assigned to our first choice elementary school and Stu did not even have to dig out his Kufi hat. Zone A rules. .

  150. chicagofinance says:

    threaten that you will dump them for FiOS…I don’t evenhave FiOS in my area; I have Verizon with DirecTV and Cablevision is charging me $10 more than the deal that is on TV all the time after my intro period expired…

    meter says:
    July 2, 2010 at 12:40 pm

    Someone please make the case for me continuing to shell out $142/month to Crapcast.

    I hate this company more than any other.

  151. Final Doom says:

    Tactical nuke Crapcast.

    Yeah.

  152. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [144] shore

    Yes, but today one of our secretaries bought me lunch. What does she know that I should?

    I have a theory or two, but won’t post it from here.

  153. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [145] meter

    This got my attention:

    ““We’re seeing a huge growth in the use of non-cash funding,” Marc Hommel, leader of the pensions practice at PricewaterhouseCoopers in London, said. “There are big pension deficits and sponsors are cash-strapped. These mechanisms provide security for the pension plans in exchange for less cash.”

    I can see a host of technical problems with this but nothing insurmountable. I expect that it is on the DOL’s and PBGC’s radar, and I am now curious to know if they have issued any guidance or regulations.

  154. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [135] juice

    “No way bojangles has those kind of stones.”

    Respectfully, I disagree. In fact, I have said before that we could well see political conditions in this country that existed in the deep south when the feds were busy, and perhaps worse. It takes cojones to spark a low intensity civil war.

  155. meter says:

    @156 –

    God help them if there is some kind of natural disaster (e.g. earthquake) or the barrels turn out to be of poor quality after aging.

  156. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [141] out

    “Sometimes I miss the good old days of the Cold War and the MAD doctrine.”

    MAD worked because nation-states understood the responsibility to control nuclear proliferation. The USSR didn’t want nukes in places like No. Korea and Iran any more than we did.

    The eventual discovery by countries like Pakistan destablilized the situation somewhat, but the real threat is not that Pakistan will launch but that it would be overtaken by extremists who will proxy out their warfighting capacity to terrorists.

  157. Final Doom says:

    Even ZH lags the conversation here. We’ve been talking about this for over two years.

    “As always SocGen’s Dylan Grice comes out with some tremendous insights in his latest weekly piece “Double dips, siren calls and inflationary bias of policy.” While the gist of the piece is presenting a comprehensive overview of the traditional and cognitive biases toward inflationary policies and away from hard, unpopular, deflationary/austere measures, Dylan provides a chilling anecdote involving the 1980s conflict between the UK and Argentina, in which it was precisely war that pulled an extremely unpopular government, that of Maggie Thatcher, out of the gutter of public opinion, and soaring in popularity. Thatcher, who came to power oddly enough on a “mandate to smash inflation, smash the unions and downsize government”, saw her popularity immediately slide to 25% (see chart) as people realized the very real pain associated with austerity and a regime fighting run away government. A tangent in Grice’s argument is that on very rare occasions, the people of a country do end up making the decision to take on hardship, instead of kicking the can down the road (are you listening Summers?). Yet they promptly grow to regret their decision. So what was it that saved the government, and allowed the Conservatives a second term in which to complete the painful austerity project? The declaration of war by Argentina’s General Galtieri over the Falkland Islands. The result was soaring popularity for the Iron Lady, and the rest is history. Looking forward, now that all of Europe is gripped in austerity, and make no mistake – this very same austerity is coming to the US on very short notice (sorry Krugman), and popularity ratings for all political parties are crashing, has the political G-8/20 elite been focused a little too much on the Falkland war? Is war precisely the diversion that Europe and soon America hope to use in order to deflect anger from policies such as Schwarzenegger’s imposition of minimum wage salaries yesterday (yes, this is pure austerity)? And is there a Gallup or some other polling “unpopularity” threshold that the G-20 is waiting for before letting all those aircraft carriers parked next to the Persian Gulf loose? Read the below excerpt from Dylan and make up your own minds.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/will-austerity-be-catalyst-war

  158. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [156] meter,

    I suspect that this is baked in.

    The “assets” have to be valued and long-term stock in trade is going to be valued at a discount because of those risks.

    I cannot speak for the british pension system, but their rules and Canadian rules are very similar to US rules in most respects. In fact, they may have rules similar to banking rules that determine the percentage of an asset’s value that can count toward capital based on its liquidity and risk.

  159. Sas3 says:

    Dutch all the way?

  160. Dink says:

    How early in the AM would one suggest leaving tomorrow if they do not want to hit any traffic on the GSP? We will be going from Exit 165 to AC.

  161. meter says:

    @163 –

    Were I a betting man, I wouldn’t put money on it.

    I’d put money on the winner of the Argentina/Germany game going all the way.

    The wildcard would be Spain, but IMO they haven’t played at the level of Argentina or Germany.

  162. A.West says:

    The Grove piece provides some useful observations but draws some seriously wrong conclusions. Yes, the US is losing competitiveness, but for the opposite reason he cites – it has moved away from capitalism. He yearns for Chinese style industrial planning, because he imagines that his firm will be among the “chosen ones”. As someone who has analysed Chinese industries for years, the biggest successes in China have been in industries where foreign companies where the government provided minimal regulation, planning, etc. The state sponsored industries of China are not very competitive on a global scale.
    Factories in China do not only have lower employee wages, they typically have lower taxes, fewer regulations, and so on. Over the past 20 years, the Chinese government has generally been pro-producer. China has a lot of problems, but global companies are generally confident enough to invest in plants there rather than here, on the margin.

    The US needs to become a more competitive destination globally for productive investment much the same way that NJ needs to become competitive with other states. Reduce the taxes, costs, regulations associated with actually making something.

    Global capital is mobile – it seeks the most attractive destinations. Trying to ramp up industrial policy in the US is like putting lipstick on a pig – it might attract a few folks, but most will continue to spurn it.

  163. OTA HD, Hulu, Netflix, streaming from the networks, etc.

    Agreed, I dumped Comcast over a year ago except for internet access.
    I realized I just wasn’t watching TV very much at all. When I was watching I was really just flipping through channels waiting for something to come on.
    You can get almost anything you want online. I run a Mac Mini into a Samsung LCD as a media center. Been doing it for 4 years now. Kind of changes how you view entertainment.
    Also, TPB. No need to pay if you don’t want to.

  164. NJGator says:

    Re Comcast – we threatened to bail to DirectTV and got 6 month ‘retention special’ the cut our bill down $60. They refused to renew it when it expired, so we bailed for FIOS.

  165. Sas3 says:

    A.West #165

    “Yes, the US is losing competitiveness, but for the opposite reason he cites – it has moved away from capitalism.”

    I would argue that it has moved way too much towards capitalism. I assume you don’t put 100% blame on “the commie nazi policies”.

    Wages are getting hammered because of corporate policies.

    “The biggest successes in China have been in industries where foreign companies where the government provided minimal regulation, planning, etc.”

    So is the case in Congo, but that is a horrible measure of success — literally looting people to increase shareholder wealth.

    Here is a question for you: Are corporations better off now than 50 years ago? Are citizens better off now than 50 years ago?

    S

  166. Final Doom says:

    The US is a Third World fascist jerkwater.

    Just waiting now for private armies and kidnapping-for-ransom to take off as growth industries.

  167. Juice Box says:

    There Baaaack!

    snip

    Forbes has learned that banks are quietly reestablishing the no-doc and low-doc mortgage market. In fact, low-doc loans accounted for 8% of newly originated loan pools as of this February, FirstAmerican Corelogic reports

    http://www.forbes.com/2010/07/02/return-liar-loans-personal-finance-no-doc.html?feed=rss_home

  168. BeachBum says:

    A West Sas3, have to agree with S – everything else is propaganda. Unfortunately, so many people have been brainwashed by the “pure capitalist” propaganda that it will be hard to roll it back.
    It is not either or, it’s both. Unfortunately that is the way human nature is.

  169. House Whine says:

    It’s a beautiful day and I just returned from my new job. I am so grateful to be working full time again, even though the pay isn’t what I am used to making. But I can’t shake this underlying anxiety that things are still not right, because they aren’t. So many of us are living uncertain lives, no job security to really speak of. Even if we are working, we are concerned for our family members and friends. Even though many will disagree I think it’s terrible that the UI extensions have not been approved. At the very least, you have to give a few more months than the standard 26 weeks. Maybe not 99 weeks, but people need and deserve some kind of adequate safety net.

  170. Final Doom says:

    juice (170)-

    More proof that TPTB are actually rigging the whole thing to blow up again…even bigger than the first time.

    They will not stop until they have stripped ordinary citizens of every penny of wealth.

  171. Juice Box says:

    Wine – I am going on a year of making payments to family members to keep them in their house, and another one from losing a car. Lucky for them that I am a nice guy otherwise it would be friskies and a 1 br in da hood and riding da bus.

    Whatever happened to that “creating or saving jobs” bullspit coming out of Washington for the hundreds of billions spent on the Stimulus? We need to clean the mess up not make it bigger. The more the government intervenes the worse it will get for everyone.

    A living-wage income for people is the answer not additional benefits.

    A nice trade war would be a good start along with employing a million security guards to be sent down to the border. We can put them up in FEMA trailers.

  172. Final Doom says:

    The gubmint’s only goal is to steal all your money, give it to banksters and put you and your family onto the street.

    One way or another, they will succeed.

  173. A.West says:

    You guys are crazy if you think the US suffers from an excess of capitalism. Less than 100 years ago, the federal government represented about 3% of gdp. Now it’s up around 30%, and people are still imagining that if the government would just “do more” then it can fix our ills. The government has been “helping us” into the poorhouse, and the more power you give to the government, the more power you give it to bestow favors upon some people at the benefit of others. Some in government buy votes via the tranfer of wealth from rich to poor. Others buy votes via the transfer of wealth to the already rich and powerful.
    The only person who loses is the person who basically wants to live their own life as their own, free, and by their own effort, and at no one else’s expense (i.e. most middle class Americans).
    Those, were the people, by the way, that the signers of the Declaration of Independence had in mind. Those are the people that today’s massive government plunders.

    A free and productive economy is the ultimate safety net, for those who are willing to do valuable work. Government promises to offer this, that, and the other, only last as long as there is enough wealth to plunder. See Venezuela for an example of how empty those promises become after it drives productive people underground.

  174. Jim says:

    Reference the flying car from yesterday’s thread- I have found a cheaper idea since the $194,000 would bust the budget of the Nompound. How about a flying outhouse?

    http://news.discovery.com/tech/flying-outhouses-really.html#mkcpgn=rssnws1

  175. Sas3 says:

    A.West #177

    You should compare with modern ages — not dark ages of early 1900s where women couldn’t vote, lynching was common, and someone like me would have been bowing to the British.

    In the past few decades, there has been a net migration of wealth upwards. If you even think there is a doubt about that, I’ll drop the subject.

  176. Final Doom says:

    I would like to send a $1,000 tip to the crossbar of Uruguay’s goal.

  177. Chico says:

    This people were employed and willing to work before the Great Recession happened.They have obligations Car,house,mortgages…And due to High cost of leaving,2 or 3 incomes is required to survive.This people are victims of mismanagement of our chosen leaders.A person making $60,000 a year that lost his job that is willing to work at any income is competing with 6 applicants to 1 opening and the job at 7 eleven,he is competing with the 18 year old high school student.Just surviving at the income before the crisis,Willing to work for any income but no jobs,a victim of greed.Let us kick him more while he his down.Blame him for his suffering.

  178. Sas3 says:

    Juice Box,

    A well regulated capitalist society with some degree of a safety net is the best solution. Both extremes become tyrannies.

    As they say, in capitalism, man exploits man. In communism, it’s the other way round.

    Here is a tagline — refinancing as a patriotic thing :). Pay 3k for local people (mostly paperwork), and screw some bondholder in China or Saudi Arabia.

  179. Mr Hyde says:

    Tosh

    what software are u running on the mini to act as media interface????

  180. Sas3 says:

    Ghana bravely snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

  181. Great post, very informative. Keep up the good work, Thanks.

  182. House Whine says:

    175- I hope all those you are helping appreciate all you do. Charity begins at home and I decided not to give my money away anymore to non-profits. I am hoarding it all for me and mine.

    Our leaders are too busy figuring out how to drain our money to useless conflicts in the Middle East. Our leaders live in a different universe than the middle-class and the poor are practically invisible. A lot of people are hurting and I don’t think D.C. has the slightest idea what to do. Or worse, they just don’t care.

  183. Sas3 says:

    House, you may end up very rich and leaving all the money to a local school or college.

  184. theo says:

    If the market is so bad, how come the house we wanted to look at in glen rock went on the market wednesday, received 8 offers and is now off the market. House we are going to see in Paramus tomorrow just came on the market and already has an offer. Houses we liked in hillsdale and river vale also accepted offers within a week of coming on the market. Something strange is going on or is this typical even in a “buyers” market.

  185. Fabius Maximus says:

    #175 Juice

    “A living-wage income for people is the answer not additional benefits”

    This is a very good answer, one of many possible. It will put you in a minority in here.

    Welcome to the dark side, you G0d Dam S0cialist!

  186. Chico says:

    Unemployed getting extended benefits,how about sending them to the township to work and do something.Getting paid by the extended benefits anyway.I am sure they will want to do something,instead of being called a parasite of not their doing!

  187. Fabius Maximus says:

    #158 Clot

    That ZH/Soc Gen article is way off the mark. Thatcher came to power on a slogan of “Labour isn’t working”.

    http://backspace.com/notes/2002/09/the-poster-that-won-the-election.php

    The plunge to 25% was true as when she got in, she started to privatize nationalized industries, broke the unions. Killed the country as a manufacturing base and on and on and on. While the war probably did get her elected, she stayed in power for the main part because Labour infighting and swing to the left made them unelectable. Its funny that in some ways it is the exact opposite of America today.

    As someone who grew up at that time, I have been waiting 20years for her to pass on (hopefully soon). When she does I will toast her as she takes up her place in He11 to burn to eternity.

  188. Chico says:

    #190 continuation
    Just don’t cut their safety net and put them on the streets.

  189. Final Doom says:

    whine (186)-

    I got out of all the charitable stuff I was doing in January. It was my New Year’s resolution (and a damn easy one to keep).

    The school whose foundation I was on was basically the host organism for layers upon layers of parasites. Nothing, as we say here, was done for the kids. The charities I worked with did nothing more than give away money and stuff to a bunch of lazy ingrates.

    Fcuk ’em all. Let’s see how well they do when they are cut off from society’s teat.

  190. Fabius Maximus says:

    #190 Chico

    That is one of the foundations of Social Liberalism. The right to work and the right to a living wage.

    If the state can’t provide jobs, they provide basic subsistence. Thats why you had all those people building roads in the depression.

  191. Final Doom says:

    gluteus (194)-

    Social Liberalism failed during the Depression. Entering WWII was a bandage on the symptoms of that failure. In fact, the seeds of the current crisis were really sown in the aftermath of WWII, when we basically mistook destroying the manufacturing base of the rest of the world with actual economic progress.

    Once the extension of massive personal credit mixed with global wage arbitrage, we had the makings of the current depression…which is going to end much more poorly than the last one. I still don’t understand why we don’t get a jump on survival and just off the entire Muslim world right now.

  192. Final Doom says:

    It’s all going to hell, yet we keep running Hail Marys from the Keynes playbook.

    I’m honestly surprised that more intellects don’t see that Keynesianism is identical to the modern blueprint of addictive/compulsive behavior.

    Just one more big drug binge…then I’ll change my ways. Really.

  193. Final Doom says:

    Happy weekend reading. In fact, I think I’ll study this before watching my fresh new DVD of The Road:

    “His face wracked by age and his voice rasping after decades of chain-smoking coarse tobacco, the former long-time Russian Minister of nuclear energy and veteran Soviet physicist Viktor Mikhailov knows just how to fix BP’s oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico. “A nuclear explosion over the leak,” he says nonchalantly puffing a cigarette as he sits in a conference room at the Institute of Strategic Stability, where he is a director. “I don’t know what BP is waiting for, they are wasting their time. Only about 10 kilotons of nuclear explosion capacity and the problem is solved.”

    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6611RF20100702

  194. House Whine says:

    193- I got an insider’s view of non-profits myself recently. The nuts and bolts people were great, but I got the feeling that there were a lot of waste at the top. I am getting more cynical the more I get out and see what really goes on. Unfortunately, the Americans that really need the help are getting the crumbs.

  195. Final Doom says:

    whine (198)-

    Guess what? Lots of the donors are living on crumbs and aren’t far away from being recipients themselves.

    Ever deal with United Way? I’d rather work with the Mafia.

  196. nj escapee says:

    United way collects money and adds no value. mafia at least gives protection.

  197. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    Anyone interested in a possible gtc at Kelly’s, 35s/Neptune, late Sun afternoon? I’m 90% there. Twist my arm.

    Shore,

    Can you hear me; Can you hear me.

    NJC,

    Get off the beach, come out and play tonight.

  198. Confused in NJ says:

    193.Final Doom says:
    July 2, 2010 at 6:58 pm
    whine (186)-

    I got out of all the charitable stuff I was doing in January. It was my New Year’s resolution (and a damn easy one to keep).

    The school whose foundation I was on was basically the host organism for layers upon layers of parasites. Nothing, as we say here, was done for the kids. The charities I worked with did nothing more than give away money and stuff to a bunch of lazy ingrates.

    Fcuk ‘em all. Let’s see how well they do when they are cut off from society’s teat

    The March of Dimes, when it was fighting Polio in a Pre Pharma “Not for Profit Era”, with independent Medical Scientists like Salk & Sabin, was probably the last Medical Charity of Value. People need to wake up to the fact that the terms “For Profit” and “Healthcare” are antagonists.

  199. sas says:

    “Scrap dollar as sole reserve currency: U.N. report”
    http://tinyurl.com/27yml6h

  200. Fabius Maximus says:

    #195 Clot

    I would disagree. I would say that it fed a large part of the population through the dust bowl economics to be able to fight in the war. Without it a more of the population would have starved to death.

    As for the current malaise, I would trace a large part of that straight back to Reagan. He juiced deficit spending and cut taxes and revenue. He blew the budget and borrowed to pay for it.

  201. Shore Guy says:

    Southside at the Pony,

    Nice rendition of Love on the Wrong Side of Town followed by This Tiime its for Real.

    Both could apply to RE and RE bubbles, at least it seems so after a coupledrinks.

  202. New in NJ says:

    After that show today the Brasil team deserve to be ushered back to their bus.

    That from a disappointed guy wearing a yellow and green shirt.

  203. New in NJ says:

    And I was really hoping that Ghana would make a good show, which they did up until near the end when they missed no less than three penalty kicks.

  204. Fabius Maximus says:

    There are many ways of looking at charities and Not for Profit (NFP) I know there are a few experts here and I will always defer.

    Should you give to charity, the answer should be yes. You should give what you can afford and what you are comfortable giving. The number one rule should be, if you don’t have it, don’t give it. If tithing 10% to Temple or church will put you in the red, don’t do it. But if you are in the red due to Lexus lease, or living outside your means, fix your spending and then give.

    Now who to give to is a separate question. NFP and Charities in two different entities. A NFP is a business start to finish. Its trustees are effectively employees. It is run like a business that does not pay shareholders, but is supposed to put surpluses back into operating funds. A Charity will not pay its trustees.

    Are all NFPs bad. No. To put one sector in the NJ spotlight, a NFP Charter school will be a good thing in some peoples eyes, but an Abbot PreSchool will be a bad thing. The two NFP will have the same structures goals and business plan.

    Are all charities good? No, there may be some with great intentions, but deliver poor service with large admin overhead and bad management. I think some 911 and Relief effort charities fall into this camp. They have the best of intentions, but poor execution.

    The best advice is to go to http://www.give.org and pick something that suits your values and is well run.

    One small note, while they may be inefficient, do the NFPs and charities tap an income stream that may not have been there in the first place? United Way is very good at putting on the corporate squeeze.

    My personal favorite is community food bank of NJ.

  205. Cindy says:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704103904575337084021966948.html?mod=WSJ_newsreel_opinion

    “The New Jersey Bellwether” – WSJ

    Chris Christie fights for a cap on property taxes.

  206. Cindy says:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704103904575337084021966948.html?mod=WSJ_newsreel_opinion

    “The New Jersey Bellwether” – WSJ

    Chris Christie fights for a cap on property taxes.

    Sorry, this may end up as a double post. My first evaporated into thin air…

  207. Confused in NJ says:

    Colonial America was novel in that, generally, the people who worked the land, owned the land. Nowhere else in the world could boast this, and it helped form the foundation for the unique appreciation – need, even – for freedom and independence among colonists. As Kalm and plenty of others observed, America was different. When their British rulers levied various new taxes from London and insisted on crushing resistance in the colonies, citizens feared they would be returned to the serfdom that pervaded the old world.

    Interesting how Property today can be seized by the Sheriff for failure to pay Property Taxes. Sort of reverses a key principle the Revolution fought for. We have met the Serfs and once again they is us, Pogo.

  208. grim says:

    I suppose BFF would have been unamerican on the weekend of the 4th.

  209. Hedgie says:

    The man who made billions betting against the subprime mortgage market seems to have a more positive view of our real estate market these days. John Paulson told a captive audience at the London School of Economics that now is the best time ever to buy a house in the United States.

    http://www.housingwatch.com/2010/07/02/john-paulson-says-the-time-to-buy-a-house-in-the-u-s-is-right-n/

  210. grim says:

    From the Daily Record:

    $9.9M mansion sale breaks Monmouth County record

    A stunning seaside mansion at the corner of St. Clair and Ocean avenues in Spring Lake has sold for $9.9 million, a record high for a home sale in Monmouth County.

    The 20-room house was purchased in 2002 by former Devils owner John McMullen — who died in 2005 — and his wife, Jacqueline.

    She sold the house on Wednesday to an undisclosed buyer, said real estate broker Diane Turton, owner of Diane Turton Realtors, a 15-office brokerage based in Point Pleasant Beach.

    Originally priced at $11,999,000, the price beats the previous record for the Monmouth/Ocean Multiple Listing Service — $9.35 million for another Spring Lake home that sold in 2007, Turton said. The McMullens purchased the house for $8.9 million, according to property records.

  211. Final Doom says:

    grim (214)-

    Nothing is more American than bank failure.

  212. Final Doom says:

    …except maybe control fraud.

  213. 250K says:

    Brigadoon = Manhattan West

  214. grim says:

    Brigadoon = Manhattan West

    Uhh, no.

  215. Shore Guy says:

    From the NY Times:

    snip

    “The United States added just 83,000 private sector jobs in June, according to the monthly statistical snapshot released by the Labor Department. The unemployment rate declined to 9.5 percent, from 9.7 percent in May. But that was a largely illusory decline, as 652,000 Americans left the work force.
    Over all, the nation lost 125,000 jobs in June, but those losses came as temporary federal Census workers headed for the exits.
    With the economy slowing – housing sales plummeted, while earnings and hours worked ticked downward last month – the stakes grow larger, economically and politically. The next few monthly unemployment reports will unfold during the run-up to the midterm Congressional elections this fall. Incumbents feel particularly precarious,”

    snip

  216. Final Doom says:

    What will our gubmint do when it runs out of hardworking people to drain of assets?

  217. gary says:

    What will our gubmint do when it runs out of hardworking people to drain of assets?

    Begin extermination.

  218. 250K says:

    Brigadoony Braggadocio (past few weeks)

    MLS 2761386 Asked 709, Sold for 715, 13 DOM

    MLS 2761381 Asked 679.9, Sold for 692, 14 DOM

    … cherrypicking, I know. But like Manhattan, buyers in the Brig have no issue paying 700 grand for a house that has no real closet in the master bedroom.

    I don’t have access to Mr. Otteau’s town by town data, perhaps it indicates significant drops in selling prices accompanied by massive increases in inventory. Or not.

  219. Mr Hyde says:

    grim

    how do you like the WRX STI?

  220. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “Brigadoon = Manhattan West”

    [222],

    Stick to Home-Builder stocks.

  221. 250k says:

    [229] Mr. Want,

    If you can recommend (shares of) a home builder who specializes in building in towns where there is little to no land left to build new construction, easy commute to NYC, abundance of community services (parks, pool, etc.), highly regarded school system and a still thriving downtown (mall, call it what you want), I will go long.

  222. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    [230],

    77 Hudson, a plethora of options, beautiful rooftop pool,Liberty Park, great commute. If you own the stock you are another bag holder. Buy the dip and hold.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=HOV+Interactive#chart1:symbol=hov;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

  223. gary says:

    250K,

    How cute. Westfield is different, who would’ve thunk it? I’m sure Graydon’s cousins, Spencer and Blair would like to believe their school system is highly regarded. Nothing says prestigous like 17 grand in property taxes, a GLK350 in the driveway and a Quinny Buzz stroller for Schmutzi.

  224. Mr Hyde says:

    Gary

    how about the recent aquisition of their very own chapter of MS13

  225. Fabius Maximus says:

    Hyde

    “how do you like the WRX STI”

    My friend bought one in 2002. Has had a blast in it and still keeps it for fun. He recently added a Mazdaspeed3 and says it blows it away. The technology jump in the 8 years has been huge. While the wrx will have a place for him, the AWD is a pain if you want to go Autocrossing.

  226. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    I met the owner of a window treatment firm, who has the contract for 77 Hudson. He hangs out in the Iron Monkey all day.

  227. grim says:

    Boyracer Supercar on a budget.

    Hard choice between the STI and Evo though.

  228. grim says:

    Awd a pain autox? I’d argue the opposite.

    2002 bugeye is slow in comparison. I had one.

    My Legacy is considerably quicker, but it is far from being a stock car.

  229. Fabius Maximus says:

    #237 grim

    AWD will always give you understeer that you can’t get rid off. AWD will kick in mid corner as it detects front wheel grip going. You then have to choices. Ride it out through the corner and come out of the corner with no power until the AWD disengaes or lift off to get grip and power back. If you lift off you unload the front suspension and ruin your line through the corner.

    Personally for a cheap ride to autocross, I would take an old E30 with an M3 engine spooned in.

  230. Fabius Maximus says:

    to=two

  231. Justin says:

    I am shocked at the Germany/Argentina outcome.

  232. jamil says:

    240:
    soccer is game that is played 90 minutes and in the end Germany wins.

  233. Outofstater says:

    A little Ambrose for your reading pleasure –

    “Like a mad aunt, the Fed is slowly losing its marbles.

    Kartik Athreya, senior economist for the Richmond Fed, has written a paper condemning economic bloggers as chronically stupid and a threat to public order”

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100006729/time-to-shut-down-the-us-federal-reserve/

  234. Final Doom says:

    stater (242)-

    I think it’s been proved that the only chronically stupid person related to the Fed is Bergabe.

  235. dan says:

    Grim,

    Only looked at your charts for 30 seconds but can I interpret it as saying that re-sales still suck but Chinese and Eurotrash buying brand new Manhattan apartments?

  236. Final Doom says:

    Bullbots on the loose this weekend?

  237. Final Doom says:

    dan (244)-

    Yeah, it’s a veritable sea of cabbage (with scallions, ginger and sesame).

  238. still_looking says:

    Doom

    You have a voice message- call me, please.

    Thanks!

    sl

  239. 250k says:

    [231] Want,

    It is one thing to speak facetiously, but surely you can do better than tossing me this scrap (HOV).

    I have done quite well shorting the likes of LEN and DHI this year (though I admit, May was dicey, and, by “well” I mean funny money, nothing serious).

    My point is that real estate is local so if you tell me Essex county RE is dead, I say you paint with too broad a stroke. East Essex vs. West Essex tells two different tales. And from one town to the next within West Essex, yet another tale.

    Same with telling me Union County RE has both feet in the grave. Look at the numbers. Plainfield vs Westfield, not the same story.

    If you believe that Brigadoon’s time too shall come, that’s one thing but if you think the town is DOA, then you aren’t following closely.

    Grim, perhaps we just don’t agree on what it means to say “its different here”. The Exxon Valdez was a tanker, Deepwater Horizon is/was a drilling rig. Different.

    Both resulted in oil spills. One resulted in a spill of 500,000 barrels a lot quicker than the other.

    Gary {232}, your persistent envy of the “Haves” has amused me for years now. Well done. Keep it coming.

  240. Confused in NJ says:

    For years, most people who worked for state or local governments accepted a fact of life: Their pay wasn’t great. The job security was.

    Now that’s gone, too.

    States and municipalities are facing gaping budget gaps. Many have responded by slashing services, raising taxes and, for the first time in decades, making deep job cuts.

    And public employees should brace themselves: Some economists say the job cuts could worsen in the second half of the year.

    Those government layoffs make it harder to reduce the national unemployment rate, now 9.5 percent. The rate did fall slightly in June because more than a half-million out-of-work Americans gave up their job searches. Once people stop seeking work, they’re no longer counted as unemployed.

    The economy is already under pressure from weak consumer spending, sinking stock prices, a European debt crisis and a teetering real estate market.

    “It’s certainly a drag on economic growth in our outlook,” Mark Vitner, an economist at Wells Fargo, said of the loss of public-sector jobs.

    It’s also a burden for residents. As state and municipal employees are cut, so are services. It takes longer to register a car, see a school nurse or travel to work by bus.

    In California, state-run Department of Motor Vehicle offices have been closed on selected furlough Fridays to cut costs.

    In New York City, a new budget will close up to 30 senior centers, shutter a 24-hour homeless center in Manhattan and eliminate nurses at schools with fewer than 300 students.

    In Atlanta, the metro transit agency shut 40 bus lines and closed restrooms in June. Even so, 300 employees might lose their jobs to close a $69 million budget gap.

    Julie Bussgang used to have assistants to help her keep order in her kindergarten classroom in Albany, Calif. Last year, those assistants were cut. Bussgang was left on her own.

    “I’ve had kids calling for help from the bathroom, and I was alone with 24 kids,” she says. “We got through far less of the curriculum than we did in the previous year. Everything took longer.”

    State and local governments cut 95,000 jobs in the first half of the year even as the economy slowly recovered. Private employers, by contrast, added 593,000 jobs in that time. It’s the first time the public sector has cut jobs while the private sector has added jobs since 1981, said Marisa Di Natale, a director at Moody’s Economy.com.

    In the second half of the year, 152,000 more local and state government employees will be laid off, estimates Nigel Gault, an economist at IHS Global Insight.

    Counting companies that work with state governments, a total of 900,000 jobs could be lost to states’ budget shortfalls, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a think tank in Washington.

    From teachers and probation officers to recreation workers and transportation specialists, public employees who never imagined their jobs could be in jeopardy are discovering they are.

    They are people like 24-year-old Brianna Clegg, who had never hesitated to take on school loans in pursuit of her teaching certificate.

    “I was always hearing, ‘There’s a huge need for teachers.'”

    Yet as California’s budget crisis mounted last year, thousands of teaching jobs were slashed. One was Clegg’s job teaching fourth grade in Stockton, Calif.

    When she sought another position, she made a grim discovery: In a state in which roughly 26,000 teachers have been laid off, openings existed for 39 teachers. Clegg wasn’t among the fortunate few.

    Across the country, the trouble stems from shrinking state income and sales tax revenue, a consequence of the recession. Total state revenue dropped 11 percent from fiscal year 2008, when the recession began, to fiscal 2010, according to the National Association of State Budget Officers.

    Compounding the problem, Democrats in Congress have failed to come up with the votes to spend about $50 billion to help states pay for Medicaid programs and avoid teacher layoffs. Governors made a plea for the money to help them avoid layoffs. Kansas Gov. Mark Parkinson said his state might have to lay off 3,600 teachers.

    Senate Republicans have argued that the nation can’t afford further spending in light of record-high budget deficits.

    Until recently, state governments had been able to paper over some of their funding shortfalls with money from last year’s $787 billion federal stimulus package. Now that’s drying up. As a new fiscal year begins this month in most states, they’re struggling to balance their budgets, as required by every state but Vermont.

    So they’re cutting services and laying off employees.

    “We do expect more layoffs to come,” Vitner said. “State and local governments are having to make the cuts they didn’t have to make a year ago.”

    Hardest hit have been states — like California, Arizona and Nevada — whose housing markets had overheated and then deflated, said Brian Sigritz of the National Association of State Budget Officers. But budget crises have spread nearly everywhere. About 46 states face total budget gaps of at least $112 billion this year, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities says.

    At least 26 states have cut jobs this year to try to close budget deficits. Five others have imposed temporary layoffs. Their tight budgets have led many states to shift more spending burdens to localities, adding to budget problems in many cities.

    For every worker who’s been laid off, many others worry that they’re next. The sense of long-term security that once attached itself to a state or local government job is gone.

    One of them is Daryl Seaman, who was so confident in his job security just a year ago that he built a new home for his family. As a probation officer for Madison County, Ill., he didn’t think his job would ever be in jeopardy.

    Twelve months later, Seaman has been demoted because of county budget cuts. He finds himself obsessing with co-workers over the next round of layoffs that could claim their jobs.

    “Everybody is panicking,” Seaman says.

    Seaman’s wife teaches in a district that has laid off some teachers with less seniority. With two teenage daughters to support, they’re saving everything they can.

    “We’re just afraid to spend any money,” Seaman says.

  241. NJGator says:

    Stay far, far away from Clifton Commons tonight folks. Lest you want to be trampled by a mob of teenage girls and 30-something women.

    http://www.baristanet.com/2010/07/clifton_commons_vampire_sighti.php

  242. Juice Box says:

    Grim best part about that house in Spring Lake is it is a 1/4 mile from DJ’s in Belmar. I just cruised around
    Spring Lake, some of these houses
    Have been on the market for well
    Over two years. I guess it is really different here.

  243. Final Doom says:

    250K (248)-

    There are only two categories:

    1. Dead

    2. Dying

    Those who are dying are firmly in the denial phase. They will have their heads handed to them.

    There will be no survivors. None.

  244. Confused in NJ says:

    President Barack Obama, in a statement released in Washington, said the United States is particularly concerned about “the spread of restrictions on civil society, the growing use of law to curb rather than enhance freedom and widespread corruption that is undermining the faith of citizens in their governments.”

    Obama is correct, this is definately happening here in America.

  245. Shore Guy says:

    Juice,

    Some of them even longer,it seems to me.

  246. Final Doom says:

    Who could’ve predicted this?

    (AP)- “Immediately after Argentina’s 4-0 quarterfinal loss to Germany on Saturday, Maradona was understandably upset. And according to Argentina’s Deportes y Noticias, he let a group of German fans know it. A translation of their report:

    Argentina national team coach Diego Maradona had an altercation with German fans after the end of the match that marked the elimination of said team from the 2010 South Africa World Cup.

    Apparently upset over post game celebrations by fans located behind the Argentinean bench, Maradona approached and scolded them, until Dalma, one of his daughters, entered the field and contained him.
    It’s a shame the man who has entertained us all over the last few weeks with his exuberance and delightful antics had to get involved in something like this. He would go on to say that this loss was “the most disappointing moment in my life” which shows just how devastated he must have been as he walked off the pitch and saw German fans in red and yellow wigs partying like it’s Oktoberfest in July right behind him. A sad end for the most interesting man of the tournament. Or anywhere else.”

  247. Final Doom says:

    Back to your regularly scheduled episode of Memorias del Saqeo…

  248. Mr Hyde says:

    Doom

    the argentinian politicians know that for whatever reason, soccer is the opiate of the argentinian masses. The gov recently bailed out the Argentinian football league. For whatever reason, the argentians will endure tremendous corruption, decay and violence as long as they have soccer.

    What would be the American equivilent?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUGbu6Jcrmw&feature=youtube_gdata

  249. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “My point is that real estate is local”

    250k,

    Local, or from the mountains to the prairies, it’s a bloodbath. Do they serve sake in Westfield?

    http://realestate.aol.com/Westfield-NJ-foreclosures

  250. Final Doom says:

    Competititve hot dog eating?

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_IPSOmRdlS0Q/Sk25QnBLsVI/AAAAAAAABtM/p4k1h6MsXdY/s400/hot+dog+eating+contest+1.jpg

    “For whatever reason, the argentians will endure tremendous corruption, decay and violence as long as they have soccer.

    What would be the American equivilent?”

  251. Final Doom says:

    BC (258)-

    Maybe 250K is pret. In that case, 250K refers to forint or drachma.

  252. 250k says:

    258/260 Want Final Doom (…seriously, neither of you will be happy until it happens)

    Try to be a bit more compelling with your evidence.

    Not sure how well vetted AOL RE info is but I will play along.

    427 foreclosures in Plainfield, 3% of HHS. Ouch.

    That’s on par with Detroit. 11,276 foreclosures, over 3% of HHS.

    38 foreclosures in Westfield, 0.4% of HHs.

    Yawn.

    Do they only serve arsenic where you live?

  253. sas3 says:

    I am thinking about a zip line on a sloping backyard, one end is the house and a deck and on another end is a tree. Should I put a new pillar or can I use an existing structure? I don’t think the deck pillar would be enough. The zip line will be for kids only.

    S

  254. Final Doom says:

    250K (261)-

    You are correct; I won’t be happy until it all goes to hell. Because all we’re doing now is delaying the inevitable…and, the delaying tactics do nothing but ensure that the eventual collapse will be monumental.

    The only diff beween Detroit and Brigadoon is that when some schmo gets laid off in Detroit, he goes straight to living in his car. The 6-figure guy in Brigadoon gets a severance to blow through first (along with the equity in his house and all his available credit).

    I deal with the unemployed in ritzy areas all the time. Believe me, any of these people who’ve lost a 200K+ job and are around 45-50 y/o will never, ever replace that income.

    Pretty shocking when you see a pal who used to be in Big Pharma working the register at Supersaver.

    No one will be spared. No one.

  255. Final Doom says:

    The saddest thing I see on a daily basis are all the 200K+/yr. guys who get laid off and honestly believe their jobs and the economy are coming right back.

    I think this is the base viewership for CNBC.

  256. Final Doom says:

    Somebody wake me up when enough people decide it’s time to start killing fascists.

    “CNN’s Anderson Cooper, one of the few people who apparently hasn’t or isn’t leaving the troubled news network (surely Ted Turner has learned by now from CNBC that his female anchors should wear transparent body suits, show belly button deep cleavage, and install a stripper pole or seventeen for those ever more elusive Nielsen points), reports some troubling developments out of New Orleans. “The coast guard today announced new rules keeping photographers, reporters and anyone else from coming within 65 feet of any response vessel or booms, out on the water or on beaches. In order to get closer you need to get direct permission from the coast guard captain of the Port of New Orleans. Shots of oil on beaches with booms – stay 65 feet away. Pictures of oil soaked booms useless laying in the water because they haven’t been collected like they should. You can’t get close enough to see that. And believe me, that is out there. But you only know that if you get close to it, and now you can’t without permission. Violators could face a fine of $40,000 and class D felony charges. The coast guard tried to make the exclusion zone 300 feet before scaling it down to 65 feet.” While Cooper’s conclusion is spot on, “we are not the enemy here, those of us down here trying to accurately show what is happening down here, we are not the enemy. If we can’t show what is happening, warts and all, no one will see what is happening, and that makes it very easy to hide failure and hide incompetence”, it doesn’t matter, and little by little, nothing else matters, except for what the administration, the Fed, and the megacorps think it is in America’s best interest to be able to see, hear, read, do, and what assets they have, where they can invest… especially if all this is done in conjunction with maxing out yet another credit card to buy the latest and greatest weekly edition of the iPhone.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bp-plc-and-administration-replace-first-amendment-40000-fine-and-class-d-felony

  257. Mr Hyde says:

    Doom

    I know 2 different guys who were 300k/yr+ got laid off and have since blown through severence and are mostly through their life savings while both have expensive homes in ritzy towns leveraged to the hilt. A number of their neignirs are in the same boat.

    The fall for them is worse then for the average Joe. As you observed, both these guys have passed up jobs paying much less 50%, because they “know” the recession is almost over.

    One of then is at 1.5 years out and the other is at 2.5 years out.

  258. 250k says:

    Doom (263)

    “…all we’re doing now is delaying the inevitable…and, the delaying tactics do nothing but ensure that the eventual collapse will be monumental.”

    Thanks for this. Some days, I agree with you.

    Other days (e.g. when every table is filled at one of the crappier Italian joints in Brigadoon so people can pay $18.95 for some chicken with marinara sauce slopped on top and $2.75 for an iced tea without free refills) I think the town is a safe-haven for the top 1% of government employees, dental hygienists, high frequency traders and BMW mechanics.

    “…any of these people who’ve lost a 200K+ job and are around 45-50 y/o will never, ever replace that income.”

    Unfortunately, I think you are right. the majority of these folks won’t replace the income at 100%.

    Leads me to another question about the activity level of this blog. Seems to have slowed down a bit but I can only base my opinion on posts, not traffic. Anyway, I wonder if its because (a) some portion of the posters lost their jobs and subsequently internet access (doubtful) (b) everyone is so busy now doing their job plus the jobs of the 10 other people in their department who have been laid off, they no longer have time to post or (c) some combination of the above.

    Or maybe the early followers of this forum ran out of patience. Given our government’s willingness to delay what Doom says is inevitable, what do you do? Wait 20 years to buy a house so you don’t overpay? If we are going to be Argentina anyway, why not take on some debt now?

  259. Juice Box says:

    250k there is 103 months worth of shadow forclosure inventory in NJ. Do you think those jokers who have missed 3+ mortgage payments are somehow going to catch up?

    We have another 20 % down to go before things even begin to PoP.

  260. Juice Box says:

    I know plenty of ex finance ballers who are doing the cash
    Burn right now waiting and waiting. They have about as much of a chance oh getting back into the game as Latrell Sprewell.

  261. Final Doom says:

    I disagree. Sprewell’s chances are better.

  262. gary says:

    250K,

    Gary {232}, your persistent envy of the “Haves” has amused me for years now. Well done. Keep it coming.

    Not as amusing as ridiculing the “Big Hat, No Cattle” crowd.

  263. Final Doom says:

    Whoops. Modearted.

  264. Final Doom says:

    Land of the free? Home of the brave? I think not.

    We are a Third World money-laundering center for drug cartels.

    The one certainty here is that absolutely no one will be held to account for this:

    “It’s the banks laundering money for the cartels that finances the tragedy,” says Martin Woods, director of Wachovia’s anti-money-laundering unit in London from 2006 to 2009. Woods says he quit the bank in disgust after executives ignored his documentation that drug dealers were funneling money through Wachovia’s branch network.

    “If you don’t see the correlation between the money laundering by banks and the 22,000 people killed in Mexico, you’re missing the point,” Woods says.
    Wachovia and Wells Fargo will both get off the hook on grounds of being too big to fail.

    The whole war on drugs is insanity in and of itself of course, but the blatant hypocrisy and favoritism certainly beats all.”

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/07/wells-fargo-wachovia-involved-in.html

  265. Final Doom says:

    Again, the only solution is to refresh the tree of liberty.

  266. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Bad News: Woke to broken air conditioning

    Good News: Repairman was available and is here fixing

    Bad News: they are charging an additional $150 because of the holdiay.

    Good News: I could give a sh*t because I rent. Have fun paying it landlord man!!!

  267. Fabius Maximus says:

    I’m with $250K, it is not all bad out there and some towns are holding up better than others. Activity is down here, I put it down to the swing away from Real Estate into Politics and the end of the world as we know it. The Wingnuts have taken over the asylum and no contrarian view is tolerated. Clot, they’ll be rioting in the streets call has been blown. Do we have a revised target date or should we just pencil in Jun 2011.

    Not everyone in Pharma earns 200K. Those that got RIF’ed may or may not replace the income, everyone is different. Maybe they are not lining up at your door with that 200K income to buy a house, but you should be happy (and proud) that you can shift inventory, even in a down market. Pharma may be downsizing, but the same was said about Whippany, Holmdel etc when Bell Labs/Lucent and Telco in general went under.

    Gary, Graydon and Ellory still went to Sleep Away camp, Ridgewood realtors are still turning over properties and even Wyckoff is picking up. I don’t know if Bergen county is different, but I still see the landscaper trucks in the streets cutting lawns. I had three roofers within earshot yesterday blasting away with nail guns and the Cape Cod blowout/Tear Down continue. My plumber has gone MIA with remodel work and my electrician is busy in wiring beach houses down the shore. It may be anecdotal but its not TSHTF.

  268. Outofstater says:

    #276 You may be right – bright spots here and there. Maybe things will be okay. Or maybe this slow slog will take so long that we will become used to it and will shake off fears of total collapse. Then when (if) it all goes to he11, we will be totally off guard and unprepared. I gotta change my attitude, get a little cheerful over here. Happy 4th everyone!

  269. Confused in NJ says:

    KABUL, Afghanistan – Gen. David Petraeus boldly declared “we are in this to win” Sunday as he took command of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan at a time of skepticism over a counterinsurgency strategy he himself pioneered and confusion over goals in an increasingly violent war.

    Petraeus has just months to show progress in turning back an emboldened enemy and convince both the Afghan people and neighboring countries that the U.S. is committed to preventing Afghanistan from again becoming a haven for al-Qaida and its terrorist allies.

    Petraeus needs a history lesson from his predessessor the Russian General, on the futility of trying to win a Gurilla War, where the enemy is virtually undetectable. Always wondered why the Vietnamese, Koreans, Afghans, etc. we support, are never as effective as the Vietnamese, Koreans, Afghans, etc. we appose? After sixty years in Korea we still can’t pull out.

  270. What a great resource!

  271. Yikes says:

    jcer says:
    July 2, 2010 at 10:24 am
    I am absolutely certain Obama is smarter than Bush(Drugs?) or Palin(Born this way?) and is probably smarter than McCain(Old??) as well.

    99% of the population agrees with you. That should tell you all you need to know about that fountain of misinformation, Jamil.

  272. Final Doom says:

    gluteus (276)-

    This would be great…if it were true. Inventory grows, volume dwindles.

    “…you should be happy (and proud) that you can shift inventory, even in a down market…”

    Typical liberal: magical thinking.

  273. Final Doom says:

    Has anybody shown Petraeus which poppy growers to protect yet?

  274. Final Doom says:

    I’m proud that I MIGHT survive…try as the gubmint may to destroy me and my business.

  275. gary says:

    Geezus, do I really have to explain myself over and over again? If you don’t get it then what’s the use?

  276. Barbara says:

    “Gen. David Petraeus boldly declared “we are in this to win”

    Afghanistan Reality TV contestant, or General…YOU decide.

  277. Barbara says:

    Doom,
    you may be well positioned in a few months since most of us and most RE agents do not have the time or experience to broker with the banks, who will be the ONLY “sellers” if that ghost inventory comes online in a big way.

  278. Yikes says:

    Leads me to another question about the activity level of this blog. Seems to have slowed down a bit but I can only base my opinion on posts, not traffic. Anyway, I wonder if its because (a) some portion of the posters lost their jobs and subsequently internet access (doubtful) (b) everyone is so busy now doing their job plus the jobs of the 10 other people in their department who have been laid off, they no longer have time to post or (c) some combination of the above.

    grim is the only one who really knows the traffic. My guess on comments?

    Not much has changed in the last 3 yrs…this board correctly nailed most of it. Housing, economy… The crap happening now was called in 06-07. Repeatedly. How many times can you say the same things over and over?

    The 1 thing I haven’t seen here is solution options (other than, ‘let it burn’) to the economy.

  279. Fabius Maximus says:

    #281 Clot
    It comes down to volume and how much of it you can get. You say you are in the top 150 in the state, what will it take to get to the top 50.

    Barbara touched on part of it. You have the infrastructure in place and the knowledge of what the banks are sitting on. If Countryslide decide to liquidate at 50c on the dollar, how can you get to the front of the queue to cherrypick the listings or get in on the REO servicing money go round. That’s not magical thinking, that’s American capitialism at its finest.

    But go ahead and b1tch that its the gubmints fault, it won’t change anything.

  280. sas3 says:

    Jamil should be of above average IQ. Beyond a threshold, stupidity can only be explained by a combination of dishonesty and above average intelligence. Think Fox News.

    My take about the traffic here, most have complained about unreasonably high RE prices, and now they are falling gradually and predictably, there is not as much excitement looking at comp killers now as it was in ’07 and ’08. Best case would have been low prices, low interest rates, and good job market.

    S

  281. sas3 says:

    My ESL at its best… I meant now that the price decline is gradual and predictable, there is no excitement. Add to that the grim jobs situation, things will be a bit dull for a while.

  282. still_looking says:

    Nom,

    If you can – call me on my cell.
    Thanks!

    sl

  283. Fabius Maximus says:

    #284 gary
    This is like the birther issue. We’ll never know for sure but people will break down 4 ways.

    Some agree with you.
    Some disgree with you.
    Some don’t care about the issue.
    Some would be in group 2 or group 3 but think its more fun to see you go nuts over this.

  284. Pat says:

    250, my ESP skills tell me that most people who posted on this blog in 2006/7 still read it…some with all two or three of their personalities.

  285. Pat says:

    Some of the biggest Game Changer posters:

    Clot stopped calling posters the LOD and joined the Dark Side.
    NJgal bought a house, said ‘goodbye’ and continued her life elsewhere.
    Stu and Gator medianed us all the way from landlords with their fingers crossed to underwater-but-making-it citizens.

  286. Juice Box says:

    Down in LBI today, places still asking 750k for 3BR condos
    Down here, on crack these people are.

  287. Pat says:

    Did you see the guy (builder) who had the auction a couple of weeks ago for the houses on the bay right by Fantasy Island? One said under contract on the 19th, but I can’t find the price.

  288. Yikes says:

    Pat says:
    July 4, 2010 at 5:51 pm

    Some of the biggest Game Changer posters:

    Clot stopped calling posters the LOD and joined the Dark Side.
    NJgal bought a house, said ‘goodbye’ and continued her life elsewhere.
    Stu and Gator medianed us all the way from landlords with their fingers crossed to underwater-but-making-it citizens.

    The Yikes family bypassing NJ in early 2009 to buy in Bucks County.

  289. Final Doom says:

    Gluteus (288)-

    Hardy har!!!! That’s a good one!

    “If Countryslide decide to liquidate at 50c on the dollar…”

    If the banksters ever decide to do something like this, it will be a sign that things are about to get better. However, this will never happen, as banks will continue to liquidate at a snail’s pace and misprice inventory as though it’s still 2005.

    I blame the banks, because the banks deserve blame.

  290. Final Doom says:

    yikes (297)-

    Future Game Changer:

    Clot bags his first useless bureaucrat. Lee Harvey-quality shot.

  291. Final Doom says:

    Only way to fix things is to refresh the tree.

  292. Final Doom says:

    Gluteus (288)-

    This just in: banks own Congress.

    Therefore, they will continue to operate under the pretense of solvency, while draining the US of personal wealth and begging for bailouts whenever things get particularly nasty.

  293. Fabius Maximus says:

    Clot

    Is this a recent aquisition of Congress?
    /sarc

    There is no point focusing on blame at this point as none will be passed on. You should be more focused on making a buck out of it.

    Game Changers.

    JJ and the TBTF bond call.
    Ducky and the ugly house.
    Bi and 20/40 100/150 Oil calls.
    Bi and “No more writedowns”.
    Pret on Comercial RE recovery.
    Myself and others pulling the trigger on places 25% off peak “tomorrows price today”.

    The Cliftion trip to IOUSA, I see that as the trigger for the Blog trip to the dark side.

  294. Final Doom says:

    Armed overthrow of the gubmint is the only fix.

  295. Final Doom says:

    Why fear a few thousand Argentinians gathering in public?

    BUENOS AIRES, Argentina — Argentina’s national team returned home Sunday amid high security after an exit from the World Cup that many fans felt was humiliating and premature.

    The Aerolineas Argentinas flight arrived from South Africa, where Germany ended Argentina’s hopes with a convincing 4-0 victory on Saturday.

    Police took extreme measures to prevent fans from reaching the capital’s international airport. Customs and immigration officials processed the players and coaching staff at the plane, and a bus took them directly from the tarmac to the Argentine Football Association’s nearby headquarters without passing through the airport building.

    Police also blocked the access highway, allowing only passengers, flight crews and airport workers to pass within 2 miles of the airport.

  296. Mr Hyde says:

    Clot

    if argentinians were that agressive about their goverment they woudnt have very many poor leaders and the current politicos would be swinging within 48 hrs

  297. Final Doom says:

    hyde (305)-

    The same could be said of us.

  298. Final Doom says:

    Taking my kid to lacrosse camp in NH this week.

    Should be an opportunity to score some good ammo discounts.

    Any favorite stores there, plume?

  299. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [307] doom

    Wal-mart in Concord, NH.

  300. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [232] gary

    ” I’m sure Graydon’s cousins, Spencer and Blair would like to believe their school system is highly regarded.”

    Well, thus far I can tell you the Kindergarten sucks, and I will let you know about the rest. I can say that the difference btwn Brigadoon K and 1 is huge. Grand Canyon huge.

  301. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [307] doom

    Actually, the best prices I found on ammo recently was Cabela’s. That said, Wal-Mart prices are decent (check first, not all carry ammo) but the selection is not as broad as I would like.

    BTW, the Walmart in Concord is actually out toward Loudon, and quite a ways off 93.

    Where is the lacrosse camp? Perhaps I know a better locale.

  302. NJGator says:

    Apologies if this has already been posted.

    Glen Ridge considering converting to a charter or private district due to elimination of all state school aid.

    http://mobile.nj.com/advnj/db_96600/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=BN7NvwQj&detailindex=3&pn=0&ps=5&full=true#display

  303. Stu says:

    Back from Vegas and I am enjoying reading about the nostalgia. For me, the best GTG was still the Grasshopper in Morristown where I got to meet the infamous ChiFi and Schabadoo as well as Grim and a few other regulars here. For the record, Gates and I are not underwater on our mortgage. We were the stupid ones who put 20% down. We have lost about $75,000 in home value though if you were to price our renovations/upgrades in full. We still have about $100,000 to go before we would have to bring a check to the table to sell.

  304. Barbara says:

    Stu,
    we are leaving for Vegas in the morning. 104 degrees…

  305. Stu says:

    Barb,

    I left Vegas pretty much with what I came with. This is a Wynn in my book. Have fun and may you do no worse than us.

  306. sas3 says:

    Stu, if you discount the rent you did not pay, and the rent you did collect, the number may be quite a bit better, no?

    S

  307. Fabius Maximus says:

    To all the Trekies out there.

    Driving home this evening I was passed by Lenoard Nimoy. He wasn’t traveling warp speed, but he was driving a very nice black Ferarri 599 GTB with “VULCAN1” as the number plate.

  308. Pat says:

    Stu, I’m glad you’re not underwater. I thought you complained once a year ago about approaching BE.

  309. sas3 says:

    Stu, of course, adding the taxes…

  310. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “Game Changers+

    [302],

    LMAO.

    Here’s a game changer for you;

    124.bi says:

    December 7, 2009 at 12:46 pm
    please face it. gold is bubble. 1228 is top for the next 5 years.

    Pret? They dragged him out on the same turnip truck that dropped him off in NYC.

    Game changers? I agree; if you took the opposite side of their trades.

  311. Final Doom says:

    plume (310)-

    Will be in Keene, wherever the f that is.

    Thanks for the tips.

  312. Mr Hyde says:

    Why buy a 700k 1970’s crapshack in NNJ with soul crushing taxes when you can get an entire village for the same price in New Zealand?

    Offers have been flooding in for an isolated village in New Zealand that is on sale for just over US$700,000 (£465,400).
    Up for sale in Otira are a pub, a fire station, a village hall and 18 houses that lie in the Arthur’s Pass National Park in New Zealand’s Southern Alps.
    Otira has been put on the market by its owners, who plan to retire.

    -BBC

  313. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [320] doom

    Ah, yes. Keene. Camp is probably at Keene State, one of the NH public colleges.

    Not a backwater as NH goes, so no problem finding ammo at decent prices, and no sales tax. Just do a quick on-line search beforehand. And NH stores will sell to you. In fact, want to arm up? They will sell you long guns too!.

  314. Good post, thanks

  315. I’ve recently been thinking the identical thing myself lately. Grateful to see an individual on the same wavelength! Nice article.

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