Greenspan: Double dip “possible, if home prices go down.”

From the LA Times:

Alan Greenspan: A drop in home prices could lead to second recession

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said over the weekend that a decline in home prices could derail an already slowing economic recovery and send the U.S. into a double-dip recession.

Greenspan’s comments, made on Sunday’s edition of NBC’s “Meet The Press,” follow his successor Ben Bernanke’s remarks last week before Congress that the economy remains “unusually uncertain,” and that the Fed was readying itself to take new measures if the economy deteriorated further.

“I think we’re in a pause in a recovery, a modest recovery,” Greenspan said on Sunday’s program. “But a pause in the modest recovery feels like quasi recession.”

Economists are increasingly concerned about a renewed decline, with the latest evidence of an economy losing steam coming Friday as the Commerce Department reported lower-than-expected economic growth. Meantime, Greenspan said on Sunday’s program, the recovery has not been distributed equitably, with principally the very wealthy, large corporations and major banks benefiting.

Asked by program host David Gregory if the U.S. could enter a second recession if the housing crisis deepens, Greenspan answered: “It is possible, if home prices go down.”

“Home prices, as best we can judge, have really flattened out in the last year,” Greenspan said. “And while it is true that most economists expect a small dip from here, largely as a consequence of the ending of the tax credit, the data don’t show that at this particular stage. If home prices stay stable, then I think we will skirt the worst of the housing problem.”

Threatening that stability is a growing shadow inventory of homeowners entering default, Greenspan said, which could lead to more foreclosures hitting the real estate market.

Unemployment is also likely to stay elevated this year, Greenspan said. The former Fed chief also said he disagreed with the notion that the Bush-era tax cuts should be extended upon their expiration at the end of the year.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

117 Responses to Greenspan: Double dip “possible, if home prices go down.”

  1. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Off Exit 7A, an Abundance of Empty Warehouses

    ROBBINSVILLE, N.J.—Birds chirp and the nearby highway hums. Those sounds aside, the vast asphalt parking lots surrounding many of the giant warehouses at Exit 7A are silent.

    Of all the commercial real estate markets in the region to get clobbered by the global economic downturn, few are hurting as bad as the Robbinsville area, just off Exit 7A of the New Jersey Turnpike. In the boom years, developers added millions of square feet of modern warehouse space here, anticipating demand from companies trying to design a more efficient supply chain. That demand evaporated when the recession hit, putting the 7A area in the epicenter of the state’s warehouse bust.

    “We thought it was an appropriate time to build a building for clients who didn’t have time to wait for a building to be built,” says Alec Taylor of Matrix Development Group, which built several warehouses near Exit 7A in recent years that are now empty. “In retrospect, obviously, the story was a mistake.”

    Nearly half—48%—of the 7.2 million square feet of warehouse space near Exit 7A is vacant, according to real-estate data firm CoStar Group Inc. The space has been on the market for an average of three years, CoStar says. David Knee, a Jones Lang LaSalle broker who is trying to lease some of that space, says rents in the area have dropped as much as 40% from their highs.

  2. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    Highlands Act is an idea whose time has gone

    If you don’t understand the impulse behind the Highlands Act, let me explain it in terms of a Jimmy Buffett song. The song is about tattoos and unwanted pregnancies and the title is “Permanent Reminder of a Temporary Feeling.”

    The temporary feeling behind the Highlands Act came at the height of the housing bubble. Back in 2004, the deep thinkers of both parties were seduced by the notion that economic growth in the state was so strong that we could afford to put some of the most desirable real estate on the planet off-limits to development for eternity.

    When the bottom fell out of the economy in 2008, that act was still on the books. Now both parties in the Legislature want to restart the home-building industry. They passed a bill recently calling for millions in tax credits for buyers of new homes.

    Christie vetoed the bill on the ground that we can’t afford it. He’s right. But if we can’t afford to pay people to build houses, how can we afford to pay people not to build houses?

  3. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    Meadowlands Xanadu has two developers seeking to revive stalled N.J. project

    New Jersey is now negotiating with at least two possible developers for the long-stalled Xanadu complex in the Meadowlands.

    Jon F. Hanson, head of a commission proposing a sweeping remake of the state’s gaming and entertainment industries, has disclosed that, after months of negotiations between the state and billionaire Stephen Ross to rescue the Xanadu project, a second firm has entered the talks.

    Hanson would not name the company. However, an official with knowledge of the negotiations identified it as Triple Five Group, a Canadian conglomerate that owns and operates the massive Mall of America in Minnesota and the West Edmonton Mall in Canada.

  4. Final Doom says:

    Muni debt fail goes worldwide:

    “Now that the Greek striking truckers have been placated and the obliterated critical tourist season can attempt to salvage itself with just one month left as gas is finally once again (partially) available, some were hoping for at least a brief return to normal in the ECB/IMF-subsidized country. Alas, no such luck, as Greece has now become an accelerated version of the US’ own slow progress to all out insolvency. As the country’s foreign debt hole has been plugged for the time being with limitless cash infusions, and the financial system lives day to day as Greek banks are allowed to pledge whatever trash they find in the dumpster to the ECB, the next flash point are defaulting local governments, the equivalent of our own state and municipal crisis. Late last week, Kathimerini disclosed that the Athens port town of Piraeus has decided to stop “all payments following a central government decision to stop funding the debt-ridden authority. Having seen the kind of moral hazard allowed to his sovereign equivalents, the mayor Panaytois Fasoulas essentially says he believes he is owed a preferential debt restructuring: “Fasoulas said his municipality was not seeking privileged treatment but wanted to renegotiate the payment of its debts, paying larger installments at a lower interest rate.” Surely, he is fully entitled to his ludicrous demands after what happened in Europe in the first half of 2010, and in the US in the past two years. We are only surprised that our own bankrupt cities haven’t figured out that the right approach is precisely this: refuse payments unless demands are met. In fact, as reported in St. Louis Today, the near bankrupt city of East St. Louis, which just laid off 30% of its police force, has announced it would not make a scheduled $500,000 payment. “On Friday, the city approved a proposal to defer bond payments until next year in order to free up $500,000.” In realizing that creditors don’t really have a loaded gun pointed at their heads, US cities are finally waking up to what has been all too obvious to Europe for many months now. Look for the domino chain of state and municipal failures to really pick up in earnest over the next several quarters now that the creditor vs debtor battle lines have been openly set.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-and-greek-cities-both-refuse-service-debt-next-stage-insolvency-crisis-shifts-sovereign-l

  5. Final Doom says:

    grim (3)-

    They should put that dump up for demolition bids.

  6. grim says:

    It’ll open with great fanfare … but little to no economic impact.

  7. still_looking says:

    Solution to Xanadu: convert it to bars, brothels and betting.

    sl

  8. grim says:

    Real question is, will it be the fat man who is first down the slopes? And will he be wearing a lift ticket that cost $150m.

  9. still_looking says:

    Yep. Face-first into the doughnut display.

    sl

  10. Final Doom says:

    I still think Xanadu would make an excellent detention center.

  11. Final Doom says:

    The fat man is fugazy. He won’t start a real fight.

  12. freedy says:

    use it for section 8 housing . like they are doing in vegas . what the heck, give the landlord a return .

  13. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Frist!

  14. freedy says:

    they could also use it for a mosque. after all its near paterson, garfiled, lodi, clifton,and more . should be enough muslims to fill it.

  15. jj says:

    08/01/2010 INTEREST
    023139AA6 AMBAC FINL GROUP INC DEB 9.37500% 08/01/2011

    Whre is chifi? He owes me a beer at the capital grill.

    Funny neighbor who put house up for sale last month at a loss, have not had a single person come look at it. Mind you wife and kids are off for summer, so they are around a lot in the backyard so we would have seen it. Amazing, five years ago the line would be down the block the moment the for sale sign hit the dirt.

  16. Outofstater says:

    Except that piece was from Oct 2009. Sorry. Old news

  17. a mad as hell reinvestor101 says:

    me@work says:
    August 2, 2010 at 2:53 am
    Oh reinvestor (smoochy smooch) [[[hugs]]] – missed ya.

    How are those gasoline soaked boxers?

    sl

    LEAVE ME ALONE!!

  18. vms says:

    I am looking to trade up in Wayne. I have found houses that I like that I could probably afford. However the taxes are unaffordable. I have even noticed some houses slide from 1M+ to 820K as the taxes are in the range of 22-25K. My realtor tells me that taxes are killing the prices for these houses. The current true value to appraisal ratio is 47.5 in Wayne. These houses are usually part of gated communities where all the houses on the market are getting the same rough treatment.

    I am assuming over a period time all howowners are going to challenge the appraisals which are in the range of 500K to 600K. Will the town just change ratio and continue with current tax rates or will they have to make changes to the appraised values and live with consequent decreasing tax revenues for a long time to come. I am assuming here that they cannot raise the taxes significantly anymore due to christies 2% limit.

  19. a mad as hell reinvestor101 says:

    me@work says:
    August 2, 2010 at 2:57 am
    reinvestor 232

    Oooooooooh I love it! when you talk dirty!

    sl

    Lady, I don’t know what sort of perversion is on your mind. Just leave me out of it. Tell you what, whenever you post, I’ll just leave the damn board.

    You scare me.

  20. grim says:

    If you can’t afford the taxes, you can’t afford the house.

  21. Confused in NJ says:

    Interesting Channel 2, Bill Clinton spent $3M on Chelsea’s wedding, George Bush spent $100K on Jena’s wedding. Guess Billy & Hilly have more money. Was disappointed that Barbra Streisand attended, she had promised to leave the Country when George won his second term.

  22. Mr Hyde says:

    VMS

    Will the town just change ratio and continue with current tax rates or will they have to make changes to the appraised values and live with consequent decreasing tax revenues for a long time to come. I am assuming here that they cannot raise the taxes significantly anymore due to Christies 2% limit

    That cap is about as leaky as the gulf oil well leak. taxes WILL be going up, the town will adjust the ratio. The major financial dead weight is exempted from the cap, that being debt and pensions.

    Taxes will go up until towns start taking real action like some others have such as firing the entire police force and contracting out to the local sheriffs department for a fraction of the cost. Firing all municipal employee’s and hiring them back as contractors.

  23. Mr Hyde says:

    The question is how far will people let towns push taxes before they revolt

  24. NJGator says:

    VMS – not only if the cap leaky, but the cap is on the town’s levy, not the town’s tax rate. So if overall valuation is going down due to appeals, etc, there’s nothing to stop the town from jacking up the rate as high as it needs to go to compensate.

  25. NJGator says:

    If it’s Tuesday, Montclair must be marching yet another step closer to oblivion. We will all really be comforted by that skate park and the warm fuzzies about the All Class Reunion once my municipal tax bill goes up 10% this year.

    Council Meeting – 8/3
    Posted by: “CaryA”
    Sun Aug 1, 2010 6:01 am (PDT)

    For this Tuesday’s meeting, we have:

    13 Ordinances dealing with Parking
    A Proclamation congratulating Montclair High School on the All Class Reunion
    A Resolution for a Skate Park

    What we don’t have:

    Any discussion of the budget, borrowing, or other urgent financial matters such as the “cuts” to the library, pre-k, and Montclair Arts Council

    I have requested that the Agenda be modified to include a report from the Town Manager summarizing all cuts to date, including specific information on the savings of various tactics, i.e. union negotiations. The report should be followed by Council discussion of the budget. Thus, the Agenda item should read:

    Manager’s Report on the Budget/Council Discussion

    I also want to point out that the topic of Executive Session, “Contracts” is, I believe, insufficiently detailed to satisfy the requirements of the State Open Public Meetings Act. That act would require the Town to specify which contract. I have recommended a change to supply additional detail, before the meeting.

  26. NJGator says:

    ‘Kenney has estimated that the skate park in Montclair would be about 10,000 square feet in size and would cost approximately $350,000 to $400,000 to build. She hopes that the town will agree to set aside part of a municipal park for the skaters.

    “Montclair prides itself on being such a cool and groovy place with a diverse population,” Day said. “And skateboarding is enjoyed by all races and all socioeconomic groups.” ‘

    http://montclair.patch.com/articles/montclair-town-council-to-consider-skate-park-resolution-tuesday

  27. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    Another Monday, another low volume melt up day in the market. The ISM number went down, just not as much as expected.

    Rally on….

  28. Mr Hyde says:

    Gator

    Montclair should build a monument to excess and hubris.

  29. sas says:

    lets see…
    companies lay people off, raise prices, skimp on everything (including safety..like BP), and close branches, and cut subsidiaries. Then, that is the only way they can make a profit….and you call that a recovery?

    ha ha..man, is there anything you want fall for?

    you better get back to Charlie Sheen & Mel Gibson.
    SAS

  30. Jill says:

    Oh, stop with the $3 million wedding already. This figure comes from a self-styled “wedding expert” speculating on what it COULD cost. I realize that in the age of Andrew Breitbart it’s regarded as OK to pull stuff out of your @ss and call it fact, but that doesn’t make it so, here in consensus reality.

  31. NotBottomYet says:

    We are interested in a house in Northern Jersey. Our home inspector found part of stucco is EIFS. The house was renovated and remodeled in 2002 and 2004. We think at that time, it used EIFS for new stucco area. We estimated 60% of exterior is brick, 15% is stucco and 25% is EIFS.

    Since the seller/agent doesn’t disclose the siding correctly and EIFS is not a typical siding, we are worried:
    1) Is this property worth to buy? Other than EIFS, it doesn’t have other noticeable issues.
    2) If not, what options do we have? Can we legally cancel the deal? This house is not sold “as-is”.
    3) How to insure this house? Any company underwrites policy such EIFS house? Compare to none-EIFS house, what’s the cost of insurance?
    4) Will be difficult to resell this house in the future?

    Your thoughts and insights on EIFS would be highly appreciated.

  32. Mr Hyde says:

    No Bottom

    If you get any moisture under the EIFS then you have your very own mold farm, and it wont be apparent until you have the EIFS inspected.

  33. Painhrtz says:

    Jill 1st and foremost who cares, I totally agree with you. In reality it was paid for by the benefactors of Clinton Inc., I’m sure Bill and Hill never even opened the check books. Funny how folks will dole out cash for access to power. All chelsea’s wedding proves that if your unattractive but have access to money and power, you will marry into money and power. The rest of us unwashed masses better get back to work or drooling over American Idol because that is all we are good for anyway.

  34. Libtard in the City says:

    Scary Pain.

  35. Painhrtz says:

    Lib in what way? no different than any other of my other wacked conspiracy theories.

    I had too much sun and VOCs from paint fumes this weekend. Now where is that manifesto?

  36. Libtard says:

    Scary that we had the same thought pattern at the same time.

    Gator went to dinner with the Tom Hanks co-star from Bosom Buddies yesterday before seeing Shakespeare in Central Park. I never watched a single episode so I was clueless as to who he is. She said he was also on Newhart. I said I never watched that one either. I just don’t get the whole celebrity thing.

    We went to the Food and Wine festival in AC on Saturday Night. The Market was absolutely awesome and the alcohol was flowing like mad. I was drunk about 60 minutes in. Gator went back about an hour later and said people were falling all over the place. Good food, great wine, free admission!

  37. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    Pain:

    Good to see you the other day. Loved your dog. When he finally fills out you can saddle him up and have your neighbor’s kids ride him.

  38. NJGator says:

    Lib 37 – Maybe this will help you. http://www.unsunggenius.com/

  39. Shore Guy says:

    Not Bottom,

    Ask yourself this, “If I had known about the siding issue would I have made an offer?” and then consider whether your doubts would have been greater if it were 10-20 years older (around the time one might sell, if in the house for the long term).

    I for one would not take the risk, but it may well be okay.

  40. Libtard says:

    Not Bottom:

    Don’t get stucco with it.

  41. Shore Guy says:

    Ket/BC

    [snip]

    Just look at Sen. John Kerry’s recent yacht brouhaha if you don’t believe me. He bought and housed his $7 million yacht in Rhode Island instead of Massachusetts, where he is the senior senator and champion of higher taxes on the rich, avoiding some $437,500 in state sales tax and an annual excise tax of about $70,000.

    Howard Metzenbaum, the former Ohio senator and liberal supporter of the death tax, chose to change his official residence to Florida just before he died because Florida does not have an estate tax while Ohio does. Goodness knows what creative devices former House Ways and Means Chairman Charlie Rangel has used to avoid paying taxes.

    Associated Press

    The stern of John Kerry’s yacht
    .In short, the highest bracket income earners—even left-wing liberals—are far more sensitive to tax rates than are other income earners.

    When President Kennedy cut the highest income tax rate to 70% from 91%, revenues also rose. Income tax receipts from the top 1% of income earners rose to 1.9% of GDP in 1968 from 1.3% in 1960. Even when Presidents Harding and Coolidge cut tax rates in the 1920s, tax receipts from the rich rose. Between 1921 and 1928 the highest marginal personal income tax rate was lowered to 25% from 73% and tax receipts from the top 1% of income earners went to 1.1% of GDP from 0.6% of GDP.

    Or perhaps you’d like to see how the rich paid less in taxes under the bipartisan tax rate increases of Presidents Johnson, Nixon, Ford and Carter? Between 1968 and 1981 the top 1% of income earners reduced their total income tax payments to 1.5% of GDP from 1.9% of GDP.

    And then there’s the Hoover/Roosevelt Great Depression. The Great Depression was precipitated by President Hoover in early 1930, when he signed into law the largest ever U.S. tax increase on traded products—the Smoot-Hawley Tariff. President Hoover then thought it would be clever to try to tax America into prosperity. Using many of the same arguments that Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are using today, President Hoover raised the highest personal income tax rate to 63% from 24% on Jan. 1, 1932. He raised many other taxes as well.

    President Roosevelt then debauched the dollar with the 1933 Bank Holiday Act and his soak-the-rich tax increase on Jan. 1, 1936. He raised the highest personal income tax rate to 79% from 63% along with a whole host of other corporate and personal tax rates as well. The U.S. economy went into a double dip depression, with unemployment rates rising again to 20% in 1938. Over the course of the Great Depression, the government raised the top marginal personal income tax rate to 83% from 24%.

    Is it any wonder that the Great Depression was as long and deep as it was? Whoever heard of a country taxing itself into prosperity? Not only did taxes as a share of GDP fall, but GDP fell as well. It was a double whammy. Tax receipts from the top 1% of income earners stayed flat as a share of GDP, going to 1% in 1940 from 1.1% in 1928, but at what cost?

    [snip]

    http://online.wsj.com/article/NA_WSJ_PUB:SB10001424052748703977004575393882112674598.html

  42. chicagofinance says:

    JJ: for you

    Stripped of all of her outlandish accoutrements, Lady Gaga gets down to her bare essence in the pages of Vanity Fair.

    She tells the magazine’s September issue, due to hit newsstands on Wednesday, that she keeps her creative mojo going by avoiding sex.

    “I have this weird thing that if I sleep with someone, they’re going to take my creativity from me through my v-gina,” says Gaga, who appears on the cover.

  43. Libtard says:

    “Tax receipts from the top 1% of income earners stayed flat as a share of GDP, going to 1% in 1940 from 1.1% in 1928, but at what cost?”

    I would bet that the tax receipts from accountants skilled in dodging these tax increases rose exponentially during the time period.

  44. Mr Hyde says:

    Shore

    On a tanget…. We are facing long term increases in structural unemployment. One facet of the solution seems somewhat obvious. A return to the 1 income family. One parent stays at home to raise the kids, care for the home, and perhaps make a few $ on the side, while the other is the primary income/benefits provider.

    In such a scenario you just reduced the available work force int he US by 30-40%!!! supply demand shifts in the workers favor at that point and you should have some stabilizing forces behind wages if not an outright increase in a handful of areas. Elizabeth Warren has spoken about the net cost of 2 income families on several occasions.

    Of course the consumer economy is permanently toast at that point! But going back to that scenario is probably a net with for the individuals

  45. Painhrtz says:

    Stu so you were scared your brain patterns aligned with one of the board survivalists ; ) and how could you not know who Peter Scolari is for shame. Gator was he nice?

    Hype good to see you as well, I warned you guys he was big but just a gentle giant. We are already getting the saddle made.

  46. Mr Hyde says:

    Pain,

    Sorry we could get our schedules aligned, i still want to meet up at the range sometime!

  47. Painhrtz says:

    Definately Hyde, I only have seven rooms two bathrooms and a fence to go! boy that is scary when I write it.

  48. DL says:

    Ref 37: Libtard: Drunk in 60 minutes. Were you distracted?

  49. Mr Hyde says:

    Pain,

    I don’t mind lending a hand before or after the range. I could use a little extra exercise.

  50. chicagofinance says:

    Trying to track down. May be easier tomorrow after cash settles……

    Prove it…….

    15.jj says:
    August 2, 2010 at 8:09 am
    08/01/2010 INTEREST
    023139AA6 AMBAC FINL GROUP INC DEB 9.37500% 08/01/2011

    Whre is chifi? He owes me a beer at the capital grill.

  51. Painhrtz says:

    Hyde thanks for the offer. I think I woul drather jus ttake the day off

  52. NJGator says:

    Pain 47 – He was really nice. He’s a friend of a friend’s friend. My friend and his were up visiting from Florida for the weekend and he and his girlfriend joined us all for dinner before we went to the Delacorte.

    My friend watched him rehearse for his upcoming Off-Broadway show and said it looks fantastic.

    On a side note, Public Theatre’s production of ‘Merchant of Venice’ with Al Pacino was phenomenal. It’s moving to Broadway in the fall.

  53. Libtard in the City says:

    DL: “Ref 37: Libtard: Drunk in 60 minutes. Were you distracted?”

    Pretty funny. When Captain Cheapo and free high end alcohol come together, it’s pretty much a deathwish. Had some tasty $14 Argentinian Malbec. Ruta 22. It goes for about $14 per bottle. Lots of Italian wines and had a nice Howell Mountain (Napa), but was too drunk to remember the name. Also had some tasty Flying Fish Exit 4. I also asked them if when they got up to brewing Exit 13, would they produce a malt liquor? I got to sample Abita (New Orleans), MGD Light (tasted like peepee), Johnny Walker, Maker’s Mark, you name it, I swallowed it. Had some nice dark chocolate, with more wine. Fancy fromage and more wine. You get the picture. I also got to sample about 5 different variety of crab cakes from 5 different South Jersey Seafood restaurants. I walked out of there with two purchases. Some delicious jalapeno plantain chips and some amazing ‘Sassy’ BBQ sauce from Virgina. Definitely the vinegar type. I highly recommend people attend this even next year. It was like a pub crawl without the crawl with excellent vittles.

  54. NBY (32)-

    Run, don’t walk. 2002-04 was a period of time in which EIFS was incorrectly installed almost 100% of the time, and the product failure rate is close to 100%. Defective EIFS will rot your house from the inside out.

    You can get an EIFS inspector and try to peg the exact problems, but if it were my money at stake, I’d just move on.

  55. NJGator says:

    Lib 55 – I’m blaming it all on the fruity gin cokctail they gave me when I walked in the door. Definitely going back next year. But we have to go to the last market session on Sunday. The one where they give all the unopened bottles fo booze away rather than packing them all up to take home.

  56. chi (43)-

    After hearing some of the music of this amped-up ginch, I’d like to yank her creativity out her throat…hopefully rendering her mute in the process.

    Jesus Christ, I only thought I’d have to cope with Madonna once in my life. Now it’s like she’s reproducing.

    “I have this weird thing that if I sleep with someone, they’re going to take my creativity from me through my v-gina,” says Gaga, who appears on the cover.”

  57. Spent some time in the Peoples’ Republic of Montklair this AM. Looked like lots of commercial/retail vacancy. Lunch joints not exactly filling up by noon, either.

  58. DL says:

    Lib, you forgot to mention what it was like sleeping in the car :-)

  59. Stu, the AC thing next year sounds great, but what makes you so sure AC will be there this time next year?

  60. Libtard says:

    FD…AC will be there. Sure the casinos are making a lot less money than they used to, but they are still making money. It’s hard for them not to.

  61. Shore Guy says:

    ” A return to the 1 income family. ”

    We have seen this trend amongst people we know where one spouse earns over $250,000. The other thing we see is where one spouse earns less than $250,000 but the other one can work part time either largely from home or at hours when the main income-earning spouse can be home with the kids when the other is at work.

    Taxation removes the value of both spouses working and leaving the kids in the care of someone else, or unattended after the middle-school or high-school day is over.

  62. Painhrtz says:

    Gator awesome info on Scolari. Stu Exit 4 is one of my faves, and i just don’t drink it because it is local. It is really good.

  63. NJGator says:

    Doom – Cut us some slack on the restaurants – it is a Summer Monday after all!
    The retail/commercial vacancy is troubling and seems to be getting worse.

  64. Gator (66)-

    I ate at Raymond’s. It blows.

  65. Why waste a chain you can use for beating a teenager on just shackling him to a table?

  66. Libtard in the City says:

    Raymond’s is indeed overrated. It’s like a diner where you pay extra for the ambiance. Unfortunately, the ambiance is essentially the din of other diners willing to pay for white noise. I never understood what people see in that place.

  67. Libtard in the City says:

    And Exit 4 WAS surprisingly good. Usually when a brewer goes out of their way to make a kitschy label, the beer tends to suffer. This one was pretty damn good. Then again, I’m a sucker for Belgian trips, such as my beloved Brother Thelonious which is more like a quadruple.

  68. NJGator says:

    Doom 68 – I would never eat a meal in Raymond’s outside of breakfast. And still for that I think there are much better options.

  69. Barbara says:

    Re : Planet Clair

    I always liked that French/Thai but haven’t been in a few years. BEST Thai iced teas anywhere!

  70. Painhrtz says:

    Stu may be out of your price range but I’m going to suggest trying Victory Prima Pils, best summer beer on the market.

  71. Jamal Van Jones says:

    After hearing some of the music of this amped-up ginch, I’d like to yank her creativity out her throat…hopefully rendering her mute in the process.

    Ignatius J. Reilly, is that you?

  72. NJGator says:

    Barbara 73 – Are you thinking Deja Vous? If so, they are gone. Some other good Thai options now – Spice II and Boonsong in Bloomfield come to mind.

  73. Libtard in the City says:

    Pain…Had that variety at the festival as well. I’m telling you, the liquor options were endless. I’m a huge fan of Victory and spoke with their reps for a while so I could have more samples :P They have it on tap at Tabla for $5 pint happy hour, which is quite a nice price considering you are sitting outside across from Union Square Park.

  74. Painhrtz says:

    Lib – 5 bucks can get a 6pack for 9 and enjoy it on my deck. ; ) glad you liked it Victory is good stuff. You may have to crack open your notoriously closed wallet if you keep enjoying the finer boozes. Gator may have to change your nickname

  75. jj says:

    Chifi. AMBAC paid, pull it up on your DTCC terminal. Also, this particular bond I bought at 19 cents on a dollar, hit 98 cents on a dollar today!! Go Ford, 500% return on a bond is good even for me in 18 months. Also High Yield spreads to treasuries very low today.

    Chifi, admit it you thought the bond world would be different come 8-1-2010. You were predicting a sh*t storm. Heck you were a bit of a downer. BTW Fidelity put up a ten year historical feature lately. I pulled up my batting average, sick sh*t. AIG, GMAC, FITB, C, BAC, F, MI, CNA, GNW, bought in early 2009 were all future investment grade bonds. Earlier this year bought a lot of Apollo/KKR cast off bonds and they rocked as I stuck to seniors with high coupons.

    Ford’s 7.45 percent notes due in July 2031 rose 1 cent to 98 cents on the dollar, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The yield fell to 7.64 percent from 7.74 percent.

  76. jj says:

    I was tempted to invite her to join me in my front row football tickets so she can cause a commotion and I can be on tv. But her box all being full of cobwebs and spiders may make me want to go lady gag gag.

    chicagofinance says:
    August 2, 2010 at 12:38 pm
    JJ: for you

    Stripped of all of her outlandish accoutrements, Lady Gaga gets down to her bare essence in the pages of Vanity Fair.

    She tells the magazine’s September issue, due to hit newsstands on Wednesday, that she keeps her creative mojo going by avoiding sex.

    “I have this weird thing that if I sleep with someone, they’re going to take my creativity from me through my v-gina,” says Gaga, who appears on the cover.

  77. jj says:

    And this is a bad thing, I loaded up on BP bonds a month or so ago so every disaster has a chance to make money for someone with a big set of balls. I love the fact BP now needs to pay me each year for next 20 years cause of their stupidity. Love it. When is next blue chip doing something stupid? I want in.

    sas says:
    August 2, 2010 at 10:30 am
    lets see…
    companies lay people off, raise prices, skimp on everything (including safety..like BP), and close branches, and cut subsidiaries. Then, that is the only way they can make a profit….and you call that a recovery?

  78. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Why John Paulson Will Be Wrong This Time

    “We’ve arrived at a critical juncture in the ongoing financial crisis. Have the government actions of the last year successfully spurred the animal spirits of Americans, resulting in a self-sustaining recovery?

    The Obama administration and most of the mainstream media would answer yes. GDP has been positive for the last four quarters. Consumer spending has increased in five consecutive months. Corporate profits have been relatively strong. The country has stopped losing jobs. The missing piece has been a housing recovery.

    No need to worry. Famous or infamous (depending on your point of view) $15 billion-man John Paulson has assured the world that house prices will rise 8% to 10% in 2011. His basis for this forecast is that California prices have rebounded 8% to 10% in the last year, and this recovery will spread to the rest of the nation.

    Maybe Paulson has teamed up with his buddies at Goldman Sachs (GS) to develop a product that guarantees a housing recovery. I tend to not believe anything that comes out of the mouth of anyone associated with Wall Street, but let’s assess the facts and see if they point to an impressive housing recovery in 2011.”

    http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/housing-homebuyer-home-buyer-tax-credit/8/2/2010/id/29417?page=full

  79. So this is how you make money in the final days of a dying empire.

  80. Paulson and GS, teamed together, can only be trolling for willing fools to take the other side of their doomsday trades.

    A pig in lipstick is still a pig.

  81. BTW, Capital Grille sucks.

  82. jj says:

    I don’t know I like Cap Grill as it was next to one of my clients and I went to lunch there all the time, great salads with tons of steak in them and big bowls of lobster bisque, nice bar to sit at. I actually never paid a nickle to eat there. But great lunch place. Maye if I was paying it would taste different.

  83. jj says:

    gs has a prop paramutual tool that they teamed up with shiller on to hedge home price declines. So they covered their downside, something homeowners are too stupid to do, they go long on margin with the bulk of their savings.
    Maybe Paulson has teamed up with his buddies at Goldman Sachs (GS) to develop a product that guarantees a housing recovery. I tend to not believe anything that comes out of the mouth of anyone associated with Wall Street, but let’s assess the facts and see if they point to an impressive housing recovery in 2011.”

  84. CB in SJ says:

    Interesting article in the Village Voice on the student debt “bubble:”

    “New York’s universities have grand expansion plans, but could the economy–and online courses–doom them to failure before they’ve even begun?”

    http://j.mp/8Zfvxv

  85. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    “So this is how you make money in the final days of a dying empire.”

    Nice pump job today. I looked at the futures last night and just knew it would be a big up day. Everyone knows this is just a game. Even I do not get upset anymore. Hell, I even may jump back in to see if they can manage a bull run until the election. This is all the gubbmint has left to try to make the corpse undead. Old man Greenspan let the cat outta the bag yesterday on TV. All that can be done is to try to inflate more bubbles.

  86. jj says:

    Inflate away baby. Anyone holding US govt securities long term is going to get nailed to the cross.

  87. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    “Inflate away baby. Anyone holding US govt securities long term is going to get nailed to the cross.”

    They are trying. It’s all the money that got lost in the crash that is the problem. Keep the faith John, keep the faith. The gubbmint has your back.

  88. Final Doom says:

    jj (92)-

    And that cross will be the Cross of Gold.

  89. joyce says:

    Libtard 37

    I went to that festival last year. I remember having to buy a ticket though… lucky you

  90. Final Doom says:

    Need any more proof that the shitstorm is nigh?

    “Just because it didn’t work once, and caused the firm to lose hundreds of millions in Q2 profits, doesn’t mean Goldman is done pitching the short vol trade to someone, anyone, who is still stupid enough to listen to the firm’s advice (the real important clients are already on the other side). Almost exactly 8 months after the firm came out with its top trade recommendation for 2010, namely the “short S&P 500 Dec10/Dec11 Forward Starting Variance Swap” which was opened at 28.20, with a target of 21, and is now at 30.38, and on which a client made hundreds of millions for doing precisely the opposite (to the chagrin of Goldman’s flow desk). One thing to be sure of: Goldman won’t be caught on the wrong side of the trade twice in a row. At least when Goldman was constantly wrong in its EURUSD recos, it would change the recommendation (over and over). Here, clients are not so lucky. Which can only mean that the capital at risk now (for Goldman) is quite material. And with Goldman selling vol harder than ever (not to mention hedging its own underwater variance swap legacy position), and Hatzius more pessimistic on the economy than ever, something big must be coming.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-recommends-shorting-vol-again-firm-now-buying-volatility-both-hands

  91. jj says:

    What money that got lost? Person A buys Ford Bonds for $9,800, Person A panics and sells them for $2,000. Person B (me) buys then for $2,000 and now they are worth $9,800 again. On a macro basis no money has been lost.

    Same in real estate. Idiot neighbor (person a) got lucky and sold POS Split for 600k to a sucker (person b) at peak, houses is now worth 450K once again on a macro basis no loss.

    All “H-Train” Hype says:
    August 2, 2010 at 4:46 pm
    “Inflate away baby. Anyone holding US govt securities long term is going to get nailed to the cross.”

    They are trying. It’s all the money that got lost in the crash that is the problem. Keep the faith John, keep the faith. The gubbmint has your back.

  92. Final Doom says:

    jj (97)-

    What if Country A has a benchmark currency and then decides to follow several courses of quant easing, while at the same time attempting to stimulate hyperinflation and a collapse in value against competing currencies?

    What would the macro implications of that be?

    You may not use the word “fuct” in your reply.

  93. relo says:

    John,

    Person A traded up and rolled “equity” and bigger mtg into $1.0MM house now worth $750k. A. lost job can’t make mortgage in FK/BK cycle. Bank won’t see the $$. Person B stratgically defaults on larger note than Person A had. Bank won’t see the $$. Gov’t prints money to cover banks’ losses. Taxes go up. Bank doesn’t make more loans. What recession? Currency devalued. Someone’s kid get shot in a fabricated war. There is your loss.

    Same in real estate. Idiot neighbor (person a) got lucky and sold POS Split for 600k to a sucker (person b) at peak, houses is now worth 450K once again on a macro basis no loss.

  94. chicagofinance says:

    It’s hard for to argue with clot’s opinion here. It is good, but now that I am on the wrong side of 40 I have built in radar for fresh food. I think the chain aspect does hit here….I can’t seem to eat there without feeling as if someone just clubbed me with monosodium glutamate. Which is fine if you go to NaCl Chang’s (fka P.F. Chang’s), but when you are going to drop a C-note…you kind of expect a little better….JMHO

    87.Final Doom-Muzzled says:
    August 2, 2010 at 3:48 pm
    BTW, Capital Grille sucks.

    88.jj says:
    August 2, 2010 at 3:56 pm
    I don’t know I like Cap Grill as it was next to one of my clients and I went to lunch there all the time, great salads with tons of steak in them and big bowls of lobster bisque, nice bar to sit at. I actually never paid a nickle to eat there. But great lunch place. Maye if I was paying it would taste different.

  95. chicagofinance says:

    JJ: I got fcuked like a $2 whore…..
    check these bichez……it was rigged…..
    Ambac Has Alternatives to Bankruptcy, Chairman Says
    By Christine Richard – Jun 14, 2010 6:09 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 22:09:45 UTC 2010

    Ambac Financial Group Inc. has alternatives to bankruptcy, including a possible infusion of capital from financial companies that have sold credit-default swap protection on it, the bond insurer’s chairman said.

    “Someone who has sold protection has a strong interest in preventing a bankruptcy,” Michael Callen said today at Ambac’s annual shareholder meeting in New York. “Someone who sold protection could put money into your company.”

    81.jj says:
    August 2, 2010 at 3:25 pm
    Chifi. AMBAC paid, pull it up on your DTCC terminal. Also, this particular bond I bought at 19 cents on a dollar, hit 98 cents on a dollar today!! Go Ford, 500% return on a bond is good even for me in 18 months. Also High Yield spreads to treasuries very low today.

    Chifi, admit it you thought the bond world would be different come 8-1-2010. You were predicting a sh*t storm. Heck you were a bit of a downer. BTW Fidelity put up a ten year historical feature lately. I pulled up my batting average, sick sh*t. AIG, GMAC, FITB, C, BAC, F, MI, CNA, GNW, bought in early 2009 were all future investment grade bonds. Earlier this year bought a lot of Apollo/KKR cast off bonds and they rocked as I stuck to seniors with high coupons.

    Ford’s 7.45 percent notes due in July 2031 rose 1 cent to 98 cents on the dollar, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The yield fell to 7.64 percent from 7.74 percent.

  96. chicagofinance says:

    BTW – eerie feeling that Friday’s job report is going to send us on a big downward slip…….don’t take any extra risk before Labor Day……

  97. Yikes says:

    Confused in NJ says:
    August 2, 2010 at 9:05 am

    Interesting Channel 2, Bill Clinton spent $3M on Chelsea’s wedding, George Bush spent $100K on Jena’s wedding.

    You’re obsessed with this. Why?

  98. borat obama says:

    Still hi four

  99. willwork4beer says:

    Stu/Lib and Pain

    Unfortunately work prevents me from commenting during the day. But I have to agree with the thumbs up on Exit 4 and Prima Pils. Both are excellent examples of their respective styles.

    Prima Pils is my favorite pilsner, bar none. And I love both breweries for being local and for being true to the craft.

  100. Fabius Maximus says:

    #42 Shore,

    I read that and thought, “What moron would come up with that that?” I clicked the link and the moron was revealed.
    For him to go on about deficits is so hypocritical, its laughable. I’ll put this up against his JFK quote.

    “the home mortgage interest deduction, which is so vital to millions of hard-working Americans….and in case there’s still any doubt, I want you to know we will preserve that part of the American dream.”

    Mortgage interest tax relief is the third most expensive tax break today. How much has that added to the deficit over the years.

    I stopped in for the AMBAC result, now that was a finish.

  101. Fabius Maximus says:

    Here is one for those that bark on about 45% paying no income tax. This puts a little perspective on the debate as its not just EITC that is to blame.

    http://tinyurl.com/2bztoh5

  102. Confused in NJ says:

    103.Yikes says:
    August 2, 2010 at 7:25 pm
    Confused in NJ says:
    August 2, 2010 at 9:05 am

    Interesting Channel 2, Bill Clinton spent $3M on Chelsea’s wedding, George Bush spent $100K on Jena’s wedding.

    You’re obsessed with this. Why?

    That’s what channel 2 said today, and I find it interesting. A Lawyer/Politician who bleeds for the poor in Haiti, rather then walk the talk, acts like Nero fiddling while Rome burns. One has to range far and wide to be phonier then Billy.

  103. Final Doom says:

    Speaking of Haiti, it is really interesting what Sean Penn is doing down there.

    Saw him on Charlie Rose the other night talking about it and was blown away. Seems like the guy has a real desire to get things done and has an understanding of how to operate a NGO in the middle of hell. His efforts down there make guys like Clinton look like dilettantes.

  104. Everyone Gets a Pony says:

    Shore Guy says:
    August 2, 2010 at 12:35 pm

    Just look at Sen. John Kerry’s recent yacht brouhaha if you don’t believe me. He bought and housed his $7 million yacht in Rhode Island instead of Massachusetts, where he is the senior senator and champion of higher taxes on the rich, avoiding some $437,500 in state sales tax and an annual excise tax of about $70,000.

    Not a surprise at all. He’s a fraud just like all the rest of the democrats & republicans who don’t sit where they stand and look out for No. 1. if you can save that much in taxes, you wouldn’t try?

  105. Yikes says:

    A Lawyer/Politician who bleeds for the poor in Haiti, rather then walk the talk, acts like Nero fiddling while Rome burns. One has to range far and wide to be phonier then Billy.

    So you’re a fan of socialism? Guy can’t spend a million on his wedding, he should donate it to Haiti?

    I have no horse in this race, but it seems as if you’re hating on Bill Clinton for no reason. He got a BJ in the oval office and was one of the best presidents in the country in the last 50 years. can’t we just move on?

  106. Shore Guy says:

    Bill Clinto is a deeply flawed man. Thatvsaid, he ws indeed one of the best presidents of the 20th Century. TR and RR were better. One can make the case for FDR and Truman also being better. That is about it. Geo. Bush the Elder was also competent and perhaps as good, but not better than Wild Billy.

    If Bill had been able to keep his pants on, he would have had a chance to be in the very top group.

  107. Shore Guy says:

    As for the cost of the wedding, inasmuch as it is not tazpayer money, who gives a fig what they spend. Whether it is too much or too little, it is of no concern to me.

    Frankly, if I were in his shoes and had the bucks, I would be pleased to spend just as much as he did.

  108. The chairman says:

    113

    Bill and Hillary have been public sector parasites their whole life and got rich because of being in public sector (Oh yeah, Hillary had short stint in law firm where she got involved in questionable behavior and strangely the law archive got burned just before the investigation and the wittness dies mysteriously). They also got millions from foreign governments so basically they have been selling the authority they got from the taxpayers. They have been raping US taxpayers for decades, both figuratively and in Bill’s case, literally.

    Somehow this is a good example of the Two Americas that another pervert member of Legal Ruling Class from TN advocated. The Legal Ruling Class has the “let them eat cake” attitude. At least GWB made his money in private sector.

  109. The chairman says:

    115

    obviously the pervert was from NC, not TN.

  110. forex robot says:

    What a great resource!

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