From the Huffington Post:
Home Prices Set To Fall Further: Richard Fairbank, Capital One CEO
Speaking at the Barclays Capital 2010 Global Financial Services Conference, Capital One CEO Richard Fairbank was pessimistic about the housing market and about consumer demand — but optimistic about his bank’s prospects.
Fairbank, in remarks that were broadcast on the web, was asked by an audience member whether there will be a double-dip in the housing market. He chose his words carefully. “I think we feel very cautious about the housing market,” Fairbank said. “I think that even despite some of the recent months where home prices have gone up, I think it’s a very plausible case for home prices to go back down again.”
His dim view of the U.S. housing market, he said, is based on the current “logjam” of defaulted mortgages and foreclosures being dealt with at Capital One, which added a retail banking arm to its lending and credit card businesses in 2005. “Unsold inventory is really at just about an all-time high.”
Although he claimed not to be predicting a “double-dip recession,” Fairbank was not at all optimistic about the housing market. “We are managing to a view that home prices are more likely to be headed down rather than up,” he said.
From the Star Ledger:
Suspension of N.J.-N.Y. tunnel project may put federal funding at risk, proponents say
Proponents of the $8.7 billion trans-Hudson rail tunnel warned today the 30-day suspension imposed on the massive project could put its federal funding at risk.
At the same time, some voiced concerns the project might be deliberately sacrificed to pay for the nearly bankrupt New Jersey Transportation Trust Fund, which supports state road and rail improvements — including the tunnel.
“I hope this isn’t a way to argue that we kill the tunnel and use (the money) for the trust fund,” said Assemblyman John Wisniewski (D-Middlesex), who chairs the transportation committee. “This project is too important to New Jersey.”
From the Star Ledger:
Sweeney refuses to allow reforms to pass until N.J. pays into retirement fund
As Gov. Chris Christie today proposes changes to the state’s overburdened pension and benefits system, one major roadblock stands in his way: Senate President Stephen Sweeney.
The powerful Gloucester County Democrat — who can unilaterally kill any bill without explanation — said Monday he will not allow reforms to pass until New Jersey pays its share into the retirement system, which is underfunded by $46 billion. That could block reforms until at least July, when a new state budget is in effect.
“If we’re going to ask others to pay more, then you got to pay your bill, too,” Sweeney said. “The check has to be deposited. There’s a lack of trust right now in the state.”
Good idea: send children to schools in other towns
http://blog.nj.com/njv_george_berkin/2010/09/good_idea_send_children_to_sch.html
“Some students will try to “jump ship” for better athletic opportunities, which may cause problems. Perhaps more seriously, what will happen, as one commenter on the news story pointed out, when Trenton students decide to attend Princeton schools?
When that sort of thing happens, another commenter suggested, the governor will be tarred and feathered by taxpayers in wealthy districts.”
Another tunnel to NYC? For what?
In five years, NYC will look the way it did in the late ’60s through the ’70s (like in Midnight Cowboy). And that’s the way it SHOULD look.
We are all Third World now. Just breathe deep, and smell the oblivion.
Academic success isn’t about the school as much as it is about the family and culture.
This reality can’t be fixed by the moving people around. Doesn’t anyone remember what happened with busing? It put the nail in the coffin for the city of Cleveland.
No worry. In today’s brave new world of gubmint as sole student lender, it will be OK to default on student debt.
Again, not to worry. Please proceed to borrow 170K to finance a photography degree.
“Nobody likes unpleasant surprises, but when Allison Brooke Eastman’s fiancé found out four months ago just how high her student loan debt was, he had a particularly strong reaction: he broke off the engagement within three days.
Ms. Eastman said she had told him early on in their relationship that she had over $100,000 of debt. But as the couple got closer to their wedding day, she took out all the paperwork and it became clear that her total debt was actually about $170,000. “He accused me of lying,” said Ms. Eastman, 31, a San Francisco X-ray technician and part-time photographer who had run up much of the balance studying for a bachelor’s degree in photography. “But if I was lying, I was lying to myself, not to him. I didn’t really want to know the full amount.”
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/09/how-student-debt-wrecks-marriages.html
Capital One: What’s in YOUR wallet?
Me: Nuthin.
Me: a Smith-Wesson .38
*. prolly smart poltrooon….prolly smart to have one — I piss enough people off on a weekly basis to qualify for a grant to carry a glock.
“No, pretty sure that :
Thus, for the good of the nation, it is time for him to go.
is a call for resignation.
I would have voted for Hillary. beggars belief”
Fabius,
Your surprise about Hillary does not surprise me at all. You misunderstood what I wrote about B.O. and, even after I explained what I intended to communicate, you seem intent on refusing to accept the meaning other than what you want to believe. In the final analyis, it really doesn’t matter; however, for the record, this conversation has ended. It it not worth any more of my time.
Shore…keep on rockin in the free world… brutha.
Which we all know aint really “free” in any sense of the word.
“Capital One: What’s in YOUR wallet?”
I’m damn proud to admit that I carry a few credit cards and I use the hell out of them. Someones got to spend to help out the economy rather than be a damn cheapskate like some here.
Funny thing is that I’ve not gotten a damn credit card solicitation in the mail for at least 2-3 damn years when I used to get offers all of the time. The only offers I’ve gotten was to increase my lines on some credit I foolishly paid down. I said muck it and promptly drew down on the entire amount of the new lines to get me some damn stuff to make me feel better. Contending with real estate terrorists and not being able to sell my damn house is depressing, so I had to do something.
tard (12)-
Do the prostitutes you visit accept credit cards?
It will be funny to see the Princeton kids have to go to school in trailers, then its going to be hard for liberal, well meaning mom and dad to talk about the noble illegals and their hard work. I love it – lets get cozy, NJ… and see how it all pans out…group hug?
Now you’ve gone ahead and stepped in it.
Barb,
Now if we could only find the money to build bike paths between trenton and Princeton for the new students we could have a utopian diversity that will work to enrich the the learning experience of the children
50.5 got to use something to buy your stupid pills
50.5,
Sad to say; you have become stale, monotonous and boring.
Well to do families in Princeton stopped sending their kids to public schools years ago.My BIL says,it started when the large increase of Spanish speaking population started going to public school.That is their lost.To me diversity is an education.A smart kid must be a street smart too.
Hyde,
the bike path thing is like a contagion in NJ. I just heard ANOTHER small town is pushing for it (Collingswood). Its like convertibles in NJ, we don’t have enough great weather for you average bike rider.
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Retail Sales – M/M change 0.4 % 0.3 % 0.1 % to 0.5 % 0.4 %
Retail Sales less autos – M/M change 0.2 % 0.4 % 0.2 % to 0.6 % 0.6 %
Rally on!
Resale tales.
yo (19)-
Private skool kids are plenty street smart. They score the best drugs.
#19
The rich have always opted out of public education.
It will be interesting to see how these well to do suburbs fight against this.
Yome,
The dark side of the whole diversity aka (poor/ low income) is a great thing is often glossed over. With “diversity” comes increased crime rates and increased disciplinary issue in schools. I’m not saying why that is, ask the sociologist, but the effect is real.
Is the “diversity” worth the reduction in overall available resources to the average student given that more resources will be dedicated to increased disciplinary issues and students who are behind
You want your kid to speak spanish? Hire him a tutor or put him in a class. Want him to see/know the “other” side of the tracks? Dont worry, as Doom said they will find that on their own when they go score the high end drugs.
I’m not arguing for any sort of intentional segregation, but the dogma of “diversity” is great, is BS. Are there potential positives? Yes. But there are also plenty of potential negatives that are not politically correct to discuss.
[96] [prior thread] minimus
“Would BP as foreign national conglomerate instruct its associates to plump down hard cash for a candidate?”
Would the foreign PARENT encourage such donations? Probably not (there are legal issues there), but what about the American division? And while Joe Roughneck may be acting through and on behalf of the union, what about management? Surely all those BP donations you speak of are not from the rank and file?
Again, you may be shocked, shocked to learn that the world doesn’t necessarily correspond to your worldview.
Also, heavier is slower. I float like a butterfly and sting like a bee.
wow people at jet game spending like drunken sailors last night, tailgating out of their BMWs in their 3k grills and drinking ten dollar drinks like they were nothing. No recession in NJ I am glad to report.
[28] JJ
Well, give them my info so I can sell my house in Brigadoon to them for a profit.
#28
It seems like a lot of people didn’t get the memo about the recession in NJ. People are spending like mad everywhere you go.
#26
Exactly right.
My kids would tell me a large amount of each day was spent dealing with kids that caused problems at Franklin. The teachers were great and the school was a newish, immaculately clean and air conditioned building but if you have discipline problems it doesn’t matter.
JJ they were short what 9000 PSL licenses even after slashing prices 50% even with a 15-year payment plan option.
How may kids did they bus in for the game?
here you go doom:
IMF fears ‘social explosion’ from world jobs crisis
America and Europe face the worst jobs crisis since the 1930s and risk “an explosion of social unrest” unless they tread carefully, the International Monetary Fund has warned.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/8000561/IMF-fears-social-explosion-from-world-jobs-crisis.html
So, who put up the $500K bail for the American Hiker held in Iran? News says it wasn’t the family or Us Government? I’m surprised Iran didn’t require payment in Gold, knowing that Bernake has trashed paper.
34
Swiss were handling it, I’m sure we gave them some uranium to lose in Iran.
Hyde,
New all time high. Where’s Bi?
Wantan
PARTY ON GARTH!
http://kara.allthingsd.com/files/2007/10/112.jpg
#15
Shore, you said you didn’t vote for O, I can believe that, you said you didn’t vote for GWB in 2000 and 2004, I can believe that. You said you called friends in the WH to recomend GWB resign, is easy to believe. I understand that only you know the answer, but I am struggling to understand how you pull the handle on H and Universal healthcare 2.0 which was the only main policy difference between O and H.
Where we got to in the discussion.
You seem to be saying that O should “move aside” (is that a better term than resign) as he is a spent force politically. He will be a one term president as he will choose not to run.
I disagree because I believe he has no credible opposition. There is chaos in the GOP and I suspect it will be 2020 before they get a chance at a win again.
It is a simple discussion with simple differing viewpoints.
If you are not up to debating your positions, fair enough.
#27 Nom
Trying to punch above your weight again …..:*)
The fact that the record amount of cash went to O and not the more business and lobbyist friendly “drill baby drill” ticket, defeats the arguement that corporate was behind the cash.
Fabius, based on hard core GOP folks that I know, the general feeling still seems to be that O presents an “idealistic/preacher” view, while H presents a more pragmatic picture. That perception remains even though O has shown his willingness to negotiate and water down things — while H had in the past made claims of “vast right wing conspiracy”.
O had a mandate and ruled like he barely scraped through. If it were Hillary, she would have pushed HCR and DADT [saying, the Islamists hate DADT, are you with us or with them?] when the media is focused on silly mosques and “patriotism” and let the mosque thing go on when the media focused on “commie stuff” [the community center guys are hard working businessmen, and it will bring in revenue].
hyde (26)-
“Diversity” is bullshit and a code word for self-loathing liberals to use…usually in the context of forcing poor shmoes who don’t have a choice to mix with a bunch of illegals and/or poor people.
Most people who are guilt-addled liberals just love diversity…as long as all the people of color with whom they associate are suitably wealthy. Wealth is the real litmus test of tolerance, and most of America fails miserably, as poverty is tantamount to evidence of sin on the part of the impoverished.
Anyone who runs a small business- especially one with a foodservice bent- will get all the “diversity” they need in about one week. Between playing soccer and working in kitchens, I’d put my Spanish up against most English-speaking Americans’.
#27 nom
Thinking about it, you could make a good SNL sketch out of that
” O, you think you can get away without taking our lobbyist cash? Who do you think you are? We’re going to force you take our cash and you won’t even know its coming from us. We will force our people to give you $10 here and $20 there, you’ll never suspect its coming from us. To teach you a real lesson were going to give you way more than the other guy”
Cut to the former Vp laughing manically and stroking a white cat.
John (28)-
I watched five minutes of the Jet game last night. I can’t imagine watching more without drinking heavily.
Did anyone go to see the J-E-T-S, Jets Jets Jets last night? I was there on Sunday for the Giants. I’ve never seen a crowd less interested in the game and I can imagine a similar scenario for the Jets. I was fortunate enough to sit in a luxury suite which was nice but the whole environment was sterile and corporate. I felt like it was a hotel or conference center rather than a stadium. The blue collar lunchpail people were gone, replaced by corporate guests who were there for the experience and to mingle rather than watch their team. The NFL isn’t doing itself any favors by marketing itself to corporate partners at the expense of regular fans, and with the 2011 lockout coming it could come to a screeching halt.
Pretty soon, the NFL will be like pro tennis…simply corporate mixers, where the real fans are either in the nosebleeds or sitting at home, watching on the plasma.
BTW, this is how you destroy a sport.
Jets had tons of military people sitting in the unsold PSL seats. Every good value PSL seat sold. The $2,500 LL EZ seats with a $120 ticket were sold out of PSLs and also the $7,500 PSLs with a $125 ticket on ten yard line. The Mezz B seats which are almost UD were empty, the four LLEZ corners they kept at 5k right next to 2.5k had seats. Mezz Clubs with a $245 to $395 ticket were also lightly sold. Funny is UD EZ has no lights, so you can’t tell if anyone was up there. Still Jets had around 3k more people at game than giants. My section was packed as I am in a good value section.
John Williams, ShadowStats:
SUMMARY OUTLOOK
“Systemic Turmoil is Unthinkable, Unacceptable but Unavoidable. Pardon the use of the Aerosmith lyrics in the opening headers, but the image of tap-dancing on a land mine pretty much describes what the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Government have been doing in order to prevent a systemic collapse in the last couple of years. Now, as business activity sinks anew, much expanded supportive measures will be needed to maintain short-term systemic stability. Such official actions, however, in combination with global perceptions of limited U.S. fiscal flexibility, likely will trigger massive flight from the U.S. dollar and force the Federal Reserve into heavy monetization of otherwise unwanted U.S. Treasury debt. When that land mine explodes — probably within the next six-to-nine months, the onset of a U.S. hyperinflation will be in place, with severe economic, social and political consequences that will follow. The Hyperinflation Special Report is referenced for broad background. The general outlook is not changed.
What does this mean for US financial markets? (take a wild guess)
In these circumstances, the financial markets likely will be highly unstable and volatile. Looking at the longer term, strategies aimed at preserving wealth and assets continue to make sense. For those who have their assets denominated in U.S. dollars, physical gold and silver remain primary hedges, as do stronger currencies such as the Canadian and Australian dollars and the Swiss franc. Holding assets outside the U.S. also may have some benefits.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/john-williams-sees-onset-hyperinflation-little-6-9-months-fed-tap-dances-land-mine
“I was fortunate enough to sit in a luxury suite which was nice but the whole environment was sterile and corporate.”
They showed on eof those during the TV broadcast. All the people were sitting around watching the game on the TV’s in the suite. Wow we created the experience of watching the game in your living room – at the stadium for you.
JJ (47)-
The only time I’ve ever equated “good value” with NFL tickets was when I was living in LA and got two free tickets to Raiders-Steelers with my grocery purchase at Albertson’s.
My wife and I were treated to a Crips/Bloods gang fight before even entering the Coliseum, then a bunch of Raider fans set upon a guy in a Steelers jersey and beat him to a pulp during the national anthem.
The game itself sucked, although it was fun booing Marc Wilson and buying beer in what seemed to be half-gallon containers.
HE (49)-
Somehow, that seems like a metaphor for America. All dressed up to go to an event to become enmeshed in a feedback loop for people who are so utterly unconscious that they can’t separate reality from the feedback loop.
Is Make Down Under; Perth?
51, that’s deep man.
46: That PSL $$ would buy a pretty sweet plasma and a decent addition/finished basement to put it in.
Good place to see daily what “O” is spending;
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/
escape (53)-
That’s why I’m here.
Here is a comparison on the Jets vs Giants PSLs and ticket prices.
http://www.jetkingdom.com/gallery/misc/jets_giants_psl.jpg/image_view_fullscreen
57 juicebox, that is outdated, jets firesaled PSLs in LLEZ for $2,500 and then only asked for $250 bucks down and said they won’t chase you for balance if you default. Giants charge 5k cold hard cash up front for same seats. Jets did not even ask for SS number or even proof of nothing,
Did somebody say Unicorn?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L70I0vTwYxg&feature=player_embedded
Last time I checked Jets did not even require fans to walk upright to enter the stadium.
nothing like a little discomfort while being terrorized
SkyRider: new ‘saddle’ seat allows airlines to ‘cram’ more passengers
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/travelnews/8001351/SkyRider-new-saddle-seat-allows-airlines-to-cram-more-passengers.html
Long 45 minutes on NPR,
Volatile Housing Market Baffles Homeowners
Nice, me like
Poltroon says:
September 14, 2010 at 1:48 pm
Last time I checked Jets did not even require fans to walk upright to enter the stadium.
NJ
Why not go all the way and just anesthetize all passengers before takeoff and simply pack them in hundreds of coffin like cargo crates. Much more efficient that way!!!
64, Hyde, very imaginative. I bet there would be a lot of empty planes / skies. :-)
NJ
I dont know about that. Hit customers with a quick shot of amphetamines to count the anesthesia upon landing and you have a bunch of travelers who have no memory of the flight and feel GREAT!!!! Its all about the marketing!
Poltroon says:
September 14, 2010 at 8:20 am
Do the prostitutes you visit accept credit cards?#
Painhrtz says:
September 14, 2010 at 8:34 am
50.5 got to use something to buy your stupid pills
#
Mr Wantanapolous says:
September 14, 2010 at 8:34 am
50.5,
Sad to say; you have become stale, monotonous and boring.
This is a bunch of damn bullspit. I get ignored half the damn time here and no one says shlt to me, so I post the damn board fully expecting the same shlt and come back hours later and face insults. Look, dammit, make up your damn minds, be consistent and stop mucking with me.
Let’s get something damn straight. I HAVE NEVER PAID FOR SHLT. Most women fall all over me. I don’t know why, I just have it like that. Hell, it might very well be that I know how to treat the damn ladies. I buy gold to adorn them rather than to horde and I don’t run around with my mangy snarling dog talking about my damn arsenal and suit case nukes. That scares the women and most everyone else.
Gov. Christie proposes pension, benefits changes for public workers
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2010/09/gov_christie_to_propose_pensio.html
You guys in NJ finally have a decent guv. nice
re #68 – They should slap a LAP-BAND on him now and run him for Pres in 2012.
Gold bitchez! Oh yeah.
REITS on a Roll
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/REITS-on-a-cnbc-2339850125.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=
Care to comment Clot?
#69 Agreed. GOVERNOR CHUNKY BUTT FOR PRESIDENT!!!
10.
“I would have voted for Hillary. beggars belief”
Heres a hint folks. Try to steer clear of CFR members when voting. Who am I kidding? Go ahead elect another CFR globalist scumbag. Maybe even Jeb Bush. I could care less Im hoping for economic armageddon so I can buy up assets pennies on the dollar.
ZIRP, expanding the balance sheet with crap, stimulus, etc… Well, the $ finds its way somewhere. No inflation? The grains, softs and meats are flying. The consumer is about to be pummeled. No need to worry, headline core inflation is buried.
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=CIY00&style=technical&p=DO&d=X&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=BAR&v=0&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=&x=55&y=9
74.
Wantan,
Check this out. My favorite junior.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MFN+Interactive#symbol=MFN;range=5d
#26
The dark side of the whole diversity aka (poor/ low income) is a great thing is often glossed over. With “diversity” comes increased crime rates and increased disciplinary issue in schools. I’m not saying why that is, ask the sociologist, but the effect is real.
If you let your kids call you stupid right on your face.It does not matter if you live in an all white or rich neighborhood.
AG [74],
Are you sure that’s not a chart of the fed’s balance sheet?
77.
Hehe. Feds going to expand that sheet to 5 trillion I can feel it. They arent ready to pull the plug. Funny, I just mentioned yesterday that the JP Morgan ramp down jobs were looking weaker and weaker.
Dumped my bond bubble fund and loaded up on SSRI. Praying for a pullback so I can load the truck up.
#72, not another “anticipatory Nobel prize”. Last one didn’t work out that well — at least not yet. Let CC do some tangible good to NJ that can last a little while. Then…
“hyperinflation may hit as soon as 6 to 9 months from today”
John Williams
Shadowstats
Im loving this sh_t. Bring the pain!
“I was fortunate enough to sit in a luxury suite which was nice but the whole environment was sterile and corporate”
Anyone here who has been to a Bruce concert knows how electric it is. I know someone who has been to dozens of Springsteen concerts, sat behind stage, to the side of the stage, up in nosebleed seats, etc. and loved every one of them — except the time they sat in what was billed as the best corporate box in the venue.
For me, I will take the pit any day.
42.Poltroon says:
September 14, 2010 at 11:58 am
Anyone who runs a small business- especially one with a foodservice bent- will get all the “diversity” they need in about one week. Between playing soccer and working in kitchens, I’d put my Spanish up against most English-speaking Americans’.
Como las tetas del toro?
Az for the earlier question of Hillary v B.O.
After the first week or so, when she opened her mouth and showed herself to be a real liability, I did not/do not like Palin. But faced with B.O. or McCain, I did not want SP as VP but did not want B.O. as president. I like McCain and still think he would have done a better job than B.O. and, given the choice, I voted for him.
Although I am not a fan of Hillary’s policy bent, I respect her a great deal. She is very smart and, something B.O. has yet to grsp, she understands how to succeed on the Hill.
Hillary and someone not Palinlike versus McCain and Palin, and I would pull the lever for her. If B.O. does not run, she has a straight shot to the WH.
47.JJ AKA John says:
September 14, 2010 at 12:47 pm
Still Jets had around 3k more people at game than giants. My section was packed as I am in a good value section.
JJ: from what I read, Giants played CAR which is far and the team sucks; Jets played BAL, which is just down 95 and also the ticket office really advertised a lot down there; a guy I know sitting in the UD said it was wall-to-wall Ravens jerseys, and he paid $125/ticket, while the Ravens guys got a deal, buy 5 tix and get for price of 4.
“Bank of America says the central bank will send the 10-year note yield to a record low of 1.75 percent in the first quarter of 2011. ”
Wow. I still may see my 30 year 3.75.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-14/yen-rises-to-15-year-high-on-speculation-kan-to-win-vote-stocks-fluctuate.html
If the Fed wants to get people spending, all they have to do is to lower interest rates on savings to -.01. That will stop this un-American savings activity and get people spending it as quickly as it comes in.
Plotroon your posts on here today are funny, true and priceless. You really are on the money today!!! Great read really enjoyed your posts.
#35, I bet your right!!
Previous posts mentioned Princeton. I lived there for a short time and I don’t ever want to live there again. Great to around the theater, university, shops, parks, etc. But the actual “living” part (i.e. people), well not so much. Strange, very strange.
House Whine, deets!
I’m looking at Princeton, need to know the weird and strange.
90- Barbara-o.k., no problem. They are really not all that friendly and are not given to small talk or smiling very much. There is the “old money” set and I am just not into that set at all. They have very high expectations and kind of live in a bubble. Can you say “attitude”!! I do think the high school is very highly rated. The town library is superb.There is also an interesting section of Princeton now a mix of African- Americans and Mexican and Guatemalan immigrants. This section is actually pretty near Nassau Street. A lot of the immigrants, of course, work in the restaurants or homes of the Princeton wealthy. So, if you are looking for warm and cozy kind of folk I wouldn’t run to live there. That said, it’s a great town to walk around and more to do than most places in this state. Just depends what you are looking for I guess. Hope this helps.
ChiFi,
You get part of your wish.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/mediatechnologyandtelecoms/electronics/8001316/Former-IBM-executive-Robert-Moffat-jailed-for-giving-insider-tips-to-lover.html
I met a solar panel salesman who lived in Montclair, I wonder if he’s involved.
Montclair to install first public electric car charging stations in N.J.
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2010/09/montclair_to_charge_electric_c.html
Next week, we will celebrate the 5 year anniversary of njrereport. Thank you grim for founding the blog and spending time and money managing it.
However, the moment has arrived to assess the forecast you confidently made on the opening day of the blog. Here it is:
“My estimate, at this point in time, given what I’ve seen and know, is that housing prices in northern NJ will fall upwards of 40% in the next 5 years. No, I didn’t screw up on the math, you read right, 40%.”
Grim, we are 5 years on. You were wrong. Prices have declined by 20% in northern NJ, nowhere close to the 40% you predicted. How do you explain this massive forecast error? And what is your estimate for the next 5 years?
I sold my house in NJ last year and moved out of state. The sale price hurt, but honestly not as bad as it would if I had held on to it. This year I am moving back, but to Brooklyn. After reading this blog, I expected a buyers’/renters’ market. This was sadly not to be, at least in the Brooklyn “hot spots” (Park Slope, BoCoCa, etc) where yuppies like me live. The market is actually kind of on fire. Low inventory, very fast sale/rent pace for anything not incredibly overpriced. Makes no sense to my feeble mind. Will values fall there? I sure hope so, considering what I signed on for in rent, but it’s hard to imagine this market easing when there is a positive feeding frenzy going on right now, while all you hear about is a real estate slump. I guess that’s for everyone else.
What’s the poop?
Wendy, many people predicted a real estate apocalypse in the New York City area. It didn’t happen. The number of people still holding out is dwindling, evidenced by the shrinking number of people visiting this blog.
barstool,
many people predicted a real estate apocalypse in the New York City area. It didn’t happen.
Tell that to the guy who is now making 60% of his salary compared to 2008 and is now trying to get 600K for a house he got hoodwinked into buying for $739,000 just four years prior. That little pitty 20% hit in Upper Schmutziville hurts a whole lot regardless of whether you think you’re loaded or not. This blog can have 3 people or 30,000 per day and nothing is gonna change the fact that the debt stays the same while the asset fads by $2000 a month. Drip… drip… drip….
“Prices have declined by 20% in northern NJ, nowhere close to the 40% you predicted.”
This is why I’m not dropping my damn price for the stinking vultures trying to get my house on the damn cheap. They will pay and they will pay dearly. I don’t intend to let up until I see the whites of their eyes bidding against each other while I sit back and look at which offer I’m going to take.
many of us are working like dogs to buy a house. I didn’t take roll call but most of the folks are here in some shape/form/new handle. Just not posting as often, like me.
Grim would know the real numbers but “everyday life” sometimes takes front seat to being able to post on the blog…
sl
Besides, I need to catch up with my cutie-patootie, reinvestor.
sl
Right…. it’s only a flesh wound. A 20% drop, rates at 4.4% and sales in a coma. Every single listing I receive on a daily basis has the tag of “price change” attached to it. Even if we’re at rock bottom today, it’ll be 10 to 15 years before you break the surface to catch a gasping breath. But, guess what… we’re only in the bottom of the 5th inning, cats and kittens!
Gary! in honor of you: tick tock tick tock tick tock… :)
sl
Grim, we are 5 years on. You were wrong. Prices have declined by 20% in northern NJ, nowhere close to the 40% you predicted. How do you explain this massive forecast error? And what is your estimate for the next 5 years?
You said prices would never stop going up, and we were idiots for waiting. How do you explain yours?
So, I guess we were both wrong. C’est la vie.
Most of my clients saved hundreds of thousands by waiting. What did yours lose by buying?
http://shirt.woot.com/
Dammit. Sold out!
sl
sl,
Absolutely! :)
“onbarstool7daysaweek”
Is this a different handle for you? I don’t recognize it. Who are you?
sl
Re: 40% – Since when did prices level off? We are still diving, last bagholder please turn off the lights!
“evidenced by the shrinking number of people visiting this blog”
Many were expecting drops in prices, they happened. Not much fun telling each other, “we were right”. Being bearish on RE is mainstream now, so the blog is not as unique on that aspect. Also, new users may find the “Kenyan bashing” here probably too much (if they are liberal) and too little (if they are conservative), so.
How do you explain this massive forecast error?
Too early to make that claim. Wait a year. The problem has the amount dimension and the timing dimension. Prices are close to 20% lower nominally — add the inflation during the past five years, and the estimate is closer to 40% than it appears. Of course, it ain’t over…
HE (71)-
I love reading comments from people who think they are going to be spared.
No one will be spared. No one.
“Grim, we are 5 years on. You were wrong. Prices have declined by 20% in northern NJ, nowhere close to the 40% you predicted. How do you explain this massive forecast error? And what is your estimate for the next 5 years?”
I am not sure what you are talking about…
Fedgov is pumping trillions on the market, keep lowest rates, and Fannie/Fredie/FHA assume all risk. This is another bubble in the making. I am surprised prices are still going down. How could Grim guess this swindle?
Fedgov does not care what happens to you–they just want to bailout the banks (and incidentally current homeowners). In fact if you really want to buy, just get an FHA loan and default if RE collapses (it won’t).
Don’t blame Grim for not guessing a historical bank bailout paid by you. And they can pull it off because as you notice people are blind and stupid and still wonder how RE remains inflated..
gluteus (93)-
Left out of the article was the announcement that the electric charging stations will also be equipped with ports to blow sunshine up your ass.
“Montclair to install first public electric car charging stations in N.J.”
stool (94)-
Take a look at the Fed’s balance sheet, and those of the top 20 or so banks.
When all that mackerel rots, there’s the rest of your 20% drop.
“Grim, we are 5 years on. You were wrong. Prices have declined by 20% in northern NJ, nowhere close to the 40% you predicted. How do you explain this massive forecast error? And what is your estimate for the next 5 years?”
The only thing weaker than real estate is the green trash in your wallet and bank account. The insane scramble for yield on the green trash continues.
It was 5 years today that we sold our house in Belle Mead, NJ and moved to Key West, FL. We have owned this place in Key West since 2000. RE values since 2000 have remained static but RE tax and insurance costs since 2004 have dropped 50%.
“Despite our perception, the earth turns. That’s what makes day and night, and that’s why it seems like the sun travels through our sky. It took human beings more than 2,000 years to fully embrace that truth. Teaching your children that houses are good investments (‘cuz look how it worked out for you) and they’re lucky to have such low mortgage interest rates is about as enlightened as sacrificing them to Moloch so the Sun will continue to rise.
Right now, the powers that be are bazooka-ing tootsie rolls into the crowd at an unprecedented rate. So if your child asks you, “Who’s gonna pay for all this?” maybe you should just say, “Shut-up and eat your paint chips, kid.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-“shut-and-eat-your-paint-chips-kid”-–-miseducating-america
Japanese yen nosedives
Dollar jumps sharply in minutes; intervention reported
“Millions of customers who bank online with J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. lost electronic access to their accounts for more than 22 hours as the company’s website suffered a severe outage Monday and Tuesday.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704285104575492353620968926.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us_business#articleTabs%3Darticle
Argentinesque
Yome. Japan cant compete with Ben and his friends but its far more entertaining to watch than tv.
Only down 20%? In 2005 you were put away for that prediction.
Who’s the idiot on the bar stool?
Say you bought a 500K pos in 2005. You put down 20%. Well, your 100K down payment is gone, poof. In addition to this, you paid 10-15K/yr for the right to carry your brilliant investment. Now add up the total cost to carry, maintenance, improvements, etc.. How about opportunity cost? Slap yourself on the back, mark to a model you are a champ.
It’s amazing, at least to me, how some dolt would actually cheer this. You must be thrilled that you lost 100K; doing back flips on Rt 17? Based on your investment acumen, today, you could charge 2 and 20.
Grim will be proven right. The gains during this whole charade will be wiped out completely. You may be able to manipulate, delay, massage, lie, etc, in the short run. However, in the end, Mr Market will be presenting you with your tab; mark to market. Buy a round of drinks.
yome [117],
Pissing in the wind. Ask Aiko Wantanabe.
yo’me (117):
You would be right!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Japan-intervenes-to-weaken-apf-3226168483.html?x=0
Race to the bottom. The last paper to crash is the loser.
Fabius –
#43 – Oh my, you are naive – they package it – they know who it’s coming from……
“We will force our people to give you $10 here and $20 there, you’ll never suspect its coming from us.”
P.S. ‘ it’s not $10 and $20’s
Again –
#92 t c m (prior thread)
“I call total BS.
Step up and show the evidence.”
I knew the moment I hit the enter button on the computer last night, you wouldn’t believe it – and you didn’t disappoint —– There are lots of people out there that don’t want to hear or believe anything that may conflict with their pre-existing theory or belief- you’ve proven yourself to be one of those. You have an emotional attachment to it, and you refuse to hear anything that may make you question your beliefs. I never worked for a law firm or a union. I have no evidence – I didn’t keep the cancelled checks, and lost track of the notes I rec’d in the envelope. So don’t believe it – whatever – keep calling everything that you don’t want to believe “total BS” if it makes you feel better about yourself.
Clot #116 sounds like “everyone should sell their house and rent”. The RE bottom will happen when that becomes the “wisdom.” On second thought, if the “don’t own anything” philosophy catches on, things will be interesting…
“Left out of the article was the announcement that the electric charging stations will also be equipped with ports to blow sunshine up your ass.”
#112 Clotpoll, you just made me spit up my whisky….. this is the post of the month…you are on a roll.
Discipline problems won’t happen once they force all the old ladies to retire as teachers and hire ex Marines.
Unexpected HEHEHE says:
September 13, 2010 at 4:00 pm
Looks like a full-court press by TPTB to ramp this puppy up before the elections.
that was called 6 months ago.
Stevie Wonder saw it coming
Party on, Tea Partiers. May I present to you, the next Senator from the great state of Delaware. (Replace the asterisks in the link below to view).
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/09/christine-odonnells-1996-anti-m*sturbation-campaign-on-mtvs-s*x-in-the-90s.php
128. Really. Does she stand a chance? Isn’t there an actual election coming up and isn’t Delaware still a lil bit blue. Congratulations are a bit premature.
129.
Getting rid of any incumbent is a victory. Say goodbye to that Castle f_ck. Looks like Im voting Democrat to get rid of Chris Smith in dist 4. First time Ive ever voted for a Dem in my life.
bar stool: I recall grim stating the 40% was on a real basis not nominal FWIW. Also, there is some financial sector bloodletting to come, so do not be so sure about what the future of NYC holds. The Obamunists confiscatory tax policies are going to hit NYC like a firestorm.
My latest story from the front lines. New business setting up a 401(k) for employees. As a courtesy I make appointments for the entire staff to help them enroll. The owners had no idea going in, but even with a fully vested immediate company match, half the employees declined to participate. Several even told me they were actively withdrawing money despite penalty……..eeek…
chicagofinance says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
September 14, 2010 at 11:07 pm
bar stool: I recall grim stating the 40% was on a real basis not nominal FWIW. Also, there is some financial sector bloodletting to come, so do not be so sure about what the future of NYC holds. The confiscatory tax policies are going to hit NYC like a firestorm.
My latest story from the front lines. New business setting up a 401(k) for employees. As a courtesy I make appointments for the entire staff to help them enroll. The owners had no idea going in, but even with a fully vested immediate company match, half the employees declined to participate. Several even told me they were actively withdrawing money despite penalty……..eeek…
#124 — Clot, the link from zerohedge sounds like… you sound cheery as always.
grim what could possibly cause that mod?
time to celebrate the tea party victory in DE… gives a chance for dems to retain the seat.
133.
Sas3,
Im convinced you are the biggest moron on this board. You dont have a clue whats going on at all do you?
130. politics make strange bedfellers.
Doom cracked me up with that diversity comment too. I worked as a cook one summer….but I really liked the guys I met there.
In fact blind hatred and a hair trigger temper are traits which can cross cultures pretty quickly. It’s fun to hate and easy….but the true joy in life comes something else.
Harry Reid, friend of lawbreakers:
http://m.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/sep/14/harry-reid-wants-vote-plan-let-illegal-immigrants-/
Does the Constitution still apply in PA?
http://wap.cbsnews.com/site?sid=cbsnews&pid=sections.detail&catId=POLITICS&storyId=6866994
Sastry is not a moron, just naive. He wishes the world were a certain way and allows his preference for how things “should be” to color his view of what is.
This is not intended to be anything resembling a negative comment, Sastry. It is just an observation.
[40] fabulous,
“Trying to punch above your weight again …..:*)”
Actually, not long after I told my boxing coach I was a novice, he questioned me about it. I admitted that I was on the novice Shotokan fighting team at UMass.
“the fact that the record amount of cash went to O and not the more business and lobbyist friendly “drill baby drill” ticket, defeats the arguement that corporate was behind the cash.”
I can tell you haven’t spent much time on K Street. Nothing personal by that, but money flow is sometimes counterintuitive, especially where regulated industries are concerned. To me, it makes sense that O would get money from BP, Wall St., etc. It makes even more sense where you consider that established players in regulated industries often want MORE regulation, not less. Keeps competitors out, and there’s nothing like monopoly power.
Grim got the direction right, that’s better than at least 95% of those whose profession is to predict such things. I wasn’t reading this blog 5 yrs ago, because house prices were too insane for me to even be reading about real estate. Reading this blog from 2008 at least helped motivate me to hold off a home upgrade purchase another couple years, enough to save me over $100,000. I can handle further losses over the next 5-10 yrs, though I’m not delighted by their prospect. But one’s got to live.
What did Grim miss? He, like I, probably didn’t guess that the government would borrow massively from the future in order to prop up nearly every major financial institution, and socialize their failure, thus preventing a large number of layoffs in the area which most assuredly would have sent NJ real estate down another 10%. The bailout of Fannie/Freddie and the facilitation of historically low rates probably contributes another 10%.
I think right now the more interesting issue is how local governments are looting the value of NJ homes away through extravagant taxation. There is a massive tax liability tied to just about every NJ home right now, the NPV of which continues to grow, and which is like an iceberg- the bulk lies beneath the water, and it can surely sink the financial ship of someone who could otherwise afford to pay their mortgage on the selling price of a house. If you subtract the NPV of the property tax liability of a typical NJ house now vs 5 yrs ago, the financial value of said house is likely to have already declined over 40%. Using a 5% discount rate, and assuming a 3% annual property tax growth rate, a home assessed $10,000 in taxes next year now comes with a tax liability with a net present value of $500,000. It probably doesn’t sell for more than $500,000 these days.
A few NJ residents are starting to wake up to this government looting, and I think this is the next big issue in NJ real estate, that will either have to be fixed, or will send home values down further.
WTF??? Everyone is focused on Delaware, but Ayotte is losing to LaMontagne in New Hampshire. LaMontagne is a far right perennial candidate that few Granite Staters ever took seriously, while Ayotte is a well-known and well-respected moderate. This is precisely like Delaware.
Now here is the conundrum for me. The GOP in places like NH, DE, or NY are not social conservatives as a rule. Assuming they aren’t winning the independents, the Tea Party candidates are taking over the GOP in the Northeast.
sx (129)-
Looks like we are about to transition from soci@lism to American Taliban in less than one presidential election cycle.
Love tonight’s election. Anything that hastens the complete collapse of society has my full endorsement.
A.West
“I think right now the more interesting issue is how local governments are looting the value of NJ homes away through extravagant taxation. There is a massive tax liability tied to just about every NJ home right now, the NPV of which continues to grow, and which is like an iceberg- the bulk lies beneath the water, and it can surely sink the financial ship of someone who could otherwise afford to pay their mortgage on the selling price of a house. If you subtract the NPV of the property tax liability of a typical NJ house now vs 5 yrs ago, the financial value of said house is likely to have already declined over 40%. Using a 5% discount rate, and assuming a 3% annual property tax growth rate, a home assessed $10,000 in taxes next year now comes with a tax liability with a net present value of $500,000. It probably doesn’t sell for more than $500,000 these days.”
you need to write this to every paper in NJ. It is spot on and THE issue regarding nj re.
Say it loud, say it proud.
Hey! Those taxes are meant to fund our blue-ribbon schools…which support our insane property valuations…which make it impossible for our kids to ever buy a home in the neighborhood they grew up in…which makes all our young people leave NJ…opening the door for all kinds of poor and/or illegal immigrants to enter NJ…causing taxes to escalate even further, in support of the demand for services and entitlements from people who produce nothing.
If NJ credit default swaps are not priced at the level of, say, Pakistan or Argentina, they are mispriced. This whole thing ends in tears and twisted metal.
MLS # 1037683 $999,900 29 JAMES BRITE CIR, MAHWAH, NJ 07430. Home is prestigous Rio Vista with 6 bedrooms and 5 baths. All those $1.2M + homes are going to hurt with this comp killer now on the market.
The only thing weaker than real estate is the green trash in your wallet and bank account. The insane scramble for yield on the green trash continues.
Used Caravans
power balance
EFX bracelet