Moodys: Housing prices to fall until Q3 of 2011

From HousingWire:

Moody’s downgrades billions in RMBS, more to come

Moody’s Investors Service issued another slew of ratings changes yesterday afternoon and earlier today, downgrading tens of billions of dollars of Alt-A and subprime residential-mortgage backed securities.

The lower ratings are due to the rapidly deteriorating performance of the mortgage pools that back the securities, in conjunction with macroeconomic conditions that remain 
under duress, according to Moody’s. In February, the ratings agency updated the loss expectations on Alt-A and subprime pools issued in 2005 to 2007.

Of the 2005 vintage alone, Moody’s rates more than 5,600 tranches of MBS and has adjusted ratings on nearly 2,000 tranches already this year with another 119 on review for possible downgrade.

Moody’s also now expects housing prices to continue to fall until the third quarter of 2011, analysts said in the most-recent ResiLandscape report from the firm’s structured finance group. The agency previously expected housing prices to stabilize in the first quarter of next year.

“Lingering weakness in the demand for homes, the expectations that job creation will remain soft this year, and the slow speed at which the mortgage industry is working through distressed mortgages,” led analysts to adjust their view.

Analysts see “increasing potential for a double-dip recession, which could cause a further 20% decline in home prices.” The now-expired homebuyer tax credit led to some purchases that otherwise wouldn’t of happened, boosting demand, but the pull-through sales distorted indicators, the effects of which are still reverberating through the market.

This entry was posted in Economics, Foreclosures, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

187 Responses to Moodys: Housing prices to fall until Q3 of 2011

  1. Poltroon says:

    Look at Moody’s track record lately.

    First, mf’er.

  2. Poltroon says:

    Death to the ratings agencies! Death to Moody’s.

    If they say four more quarters of price drops, there’s your tell that it’ll take 20-40 years.

    Wake me when the cops, firefighters, teachers and gubmint clerks storm the ramparts.

  3. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Abandoning a Home Loan Is Acceptable to 36% of Americans, Pew Survey Finds

    More than one-third of Americans say it’s acceptable under some circumstances to stop paying a mortgage and walk away from the home, a survey by the Pew Research Center found.

    While 59 percent of those surveyed said it’s “unacceptable” to abandon a home loan, 19 percent said it was “acceptable” and another 17 percent said it depends on the circumstances, an answer that wasn’t on the survey, said Rich Morin, a Pew Research senior editor in Washington. Of the respondents, 63 percent own homes and 31 percent are renters.

    “We all know the percentage of people who walked away has been increasing,” Morin said in a telephone interview. “Whether that builds sympathy or resentment, I think, remains to be seen.”

    About 12 percent of residential-loan defaults in February were strategic, meaning homeowners decided not to make payments even though they could afford to, New York-based Morgan Stanley said in an April 29 report. The rate was about 4 percent in mid- 2007.

    People who said turning a home over to the lender is acceptable climbed to 25 percent among those who suffered recession-related hardships, such as job loss or problems paying bills, the Pew Research survey found.

  4. Poltroon says:

    It’s all turning to shit. Walk away from your house; it might be close to a failing gas pipeline.

    “The gas pipeline rupture in San Bruno is symptomatic of the entire situation. US federal government officials state quite plainly that they have recorded 2,840 “significant pipeline accidents” over the past two decades, more than a third of which resulted in significant death and injury. They go on to point out that the US has more than 2 million miles of gas pipelines and about 100 federal inspectors. Yep, that’s 20,000 miles per inspector. Clearly, “maintenance” is NOT a plum government job.

    The funds necessary to build and maintain “public or “regulated” utilities are NOT earned on the market. They are extracted by law from the public. There is no pressure to maintain or replace them as they age. A private company which neglects its vital standing plant would go out of business, not being able to compete with those who do NOT neglect theirs. A government is different. It can extract the means it needs by force of law. The result is a working facade which hides a rusted-out functional core. The contrast is becoming more obvious every day in the area of vital infrastructure. But it is much more acute, if sadly less visible, in the area of financial infrastructure and its core – which is the MONEY.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bill-buckler-discusses-last-price-standing-true-money-answers-only-question-relevant-gold-bu

  5. Poltroon says:

    More:

    “Sound money needs nothing behind it to perform perfectly all the functions of money. Unsound money, especially paper money backed by nothing but debt to be paid by future generations, is TOTALLY dependent on the prices of the collateral being held against the debt which “backs” it. For forty years, the world has operated on a debt-based monetary system which is fuelled by means of credit creation. It stands or falls on the assumption that the debt upon which it is based will, someday, be repaid.

    The only means to assess the worth of the (paper) collateral which is the underpinning to the monetary and financial system today is to look at the PRICE commanded by that collateral on the secondary markets. Any reduction in the price affects confidence in the future viability of the money. The bigger the price reduction, the more adversely confidence is affected. When central bankers and politicians talk about “deflation”, they are talking about a fall in the market value of the paper which underpins the money they issue. Any fall in that market value literally undermines the foundations of the system. They know it, most of their victims do not. All they know is that what used to “work” no longer does.

    The US central bank, the Fed, prints the reserve currency. The US Treasury prints the debt paper which is the only “reserve” behind the US Dollar. That being so, the global demand for Treasury debt greatly exceeds the demand for any other type of “collateral”. That has allowed the US to go on living beyond its means for far longer than it otherwise would have found possible. The limits to this situation were revealed in March 2009 when the Fed began monetising Treasury debt and were underlined in August 2010 when the Fed resumed their task. No matter what, the “collateral” value must be maintained.”

  6. Nomad says:

    #3 Grim

    – just another sign of people who have no sense of responsibility. when the going gets tough, run away. another sign of eroding values in our country. no pride, no shame, no dignity, no sense of responsibility and no honor. without these, what’s left?

    walking away might be legal, but it’s not right. walking away is also a character statement.

  7. Essex says:

    6. Don’t forget it is also part of the current business plan of almost every major developer.

  8. Poltroon says:

    nomad (6)

    So where is the moral outrage over the calculated serial defaults of MS, Vornado, GGP and Simon?

    Mortgages are financial contracts, and the penalties for violation are written into the contracts. They are also (allegedly and supposedly) priced to account for the risk of default. There is no morality/immorality involved.

    Appeals to “morality” are great, though, when the mortgagee has nothing else at hand to force performance.

  9. House Whine says:

    6- along that vein, this is now the second time in less than a year that friends of mine has been smacked in their vehicles driving on a central NJ highway.(two separate friends). The pathetic individuals who did the smacking sped away, never to be caught. I don’t know how people live with themselves. Is this the new normal?

  10. Roy G Biv says:

    Eleventh !!!

  11. Poltroon says:

    whine (10)-

    That’s why we should all carry guns in our cars.

  12. Essex says:

    10. Normal in New Jersey is an oxymoron.

  13. Nomad says:

    Poltroon – there is (or at least once was) and expectation that if you signed your name to a contract, you would honor it. I know there is language in most if not all contracts that stipulate ramifications for non-compliance but in the end, there is an expectation of performance and yes, I am outraged at the banks too. I have played by the rules and restrained my economic expenditures and in the end, I (and perhaps you) will pay for the mistakes of others. I am even thinking that if my taxes go up, perhaps my vote should be worth and count for more – after all, if it’s my coin, it’s my house, and if it’s my house, it’s my rules.

    You talk about valuation of housing, mtg, etc – one thing that is interesting about all these RMBS is that they still don’t really have a sound way of assigning a value to them – it is still a bit of a “what do you think” type approach since there is no real proven sound methodology to determine what they are worth.

  14. yo'me says:

    You see, the rich are different from you and me: they have more influence. It’s partly a matter of campaign contributions, but it’s also a matter of social pressure, since politicians spend a lot of time hanging out with the wealthy. So when the rich face the prospect of paying an extra 3 or 4 percent of their income in taxes, politicians feel their pain — feel it much more acutely, it’s clear, than they feel the pain of families who are losing their jobs, their houses, and their hopes.

    And when the tax fight is over, one way or another, you can be sure that the people currently defending the incomes of the elite will go back to demanding cuts in Social Security and aid to the unemployed. America must make hard choices, they’ll say; we all have to be willing to make sacrifices.

    But when they say “we,” they mean “you.” Sacrifice is for the little people.

    A version of this op-ed appeared in print on September 20, 2010, on page A31 of the New York edition.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/20/opinion/20krugman.html?_r=1&ref=opinion

  15. scribe says:

    Chris Christie on Bloomberg radio now, talking about funding deficits in pensions & benefits …

  16. yo'me says:

    there is (or at least once was) and expectation that if you signed your name to a contract, you would honor it.

    Tell that to the people that lost their downpayment and sub contractors that did not get paid when the developer filed for bankruptcy.It is always immoral when the rich get hurt,the little people are just punching bags

  17. Mike says:

    250K & Comrade From yesterday thanks for input but I would of thought the further you are from town the more pricier such as some of the other Union Couny towns but I guess downtown Westfield is a more of a pleasant experience. Parking is rough though.

  18. Nomad says:

    Love all the envy and disdain for the “Rich”. Plenty of folks who grind very long hours and have earned every penny they make (Rich and not so Rich alike to be fair). My spouse and I regularly toll combined work weeks that add up to north of 160 hours. My designer blue jeans come from Target and my auto is an asian brand that begins with an “H” (not an “A”) so when I have to pay a lot of $$ for people who did not restrain their expenditures, that becomes a problem for me. I have relatives who live the high life and are broke – when they come to me for $$ want to guess what the answer is going to be?

    As far as deposits from consumers to contractors – I never give contractor’s a big one – small up front to hold the date and then a bigger check when the material shows up and the labor starts.

    Subs working for a general getting stiffed – don’t be so sure the subs are not wealthy in their own right and you are correct in that if they do get the shaft, it is plain wrong but every business has it’s risks and if one is going to play ball in a specified arena, they need to know the risks and hedge accordingly. For the record, the banks are screwing us – no doubt.

    However, don’t make me accountable for someone else’s mistakes – it is not my job to be the keeper of others. I make and lie in my own bed, the rest of america should too. When people hit the ground hard enough, and it hurts enough, they will learn and avoid the behaviors which created the pain. In this society, it appears that individuals and institutions no longer feel the ramifications of their poor decisions.

  19. grim says:

    Subs getting shafted? Isn’t that the point of a mechanics/constuction lien?

  20. Sas3 says:

    “Love all the envy and disdain for the “Rich”. Plenty of folks who grind very long hours and have earned every penny they make (Rich and not so Rich alike to be fair). My spouse and I regularly toll combined work weeks that add up to north of 160 hours. “

    However, don’t make me accountable for someone else’s mistakes – it is not my job to be the keeper of others.

    What’s with all this, “my paycheck is bigger than yours”? You start off with how it is “immoral” for people to break contracts. Doom mentions how major corps have done the same and weren’t called “immoral”.

    No one is making you accountable. There is a contract between some home owner and his bank. The home owner turns his back on the bank, the bank loots the govt. The side bets by the banks were the biggest factor in financial crisis.

  21. yo'me says:

    Subs getting shafted? Isn’t that the point of a mechanics/constuction lien?

    After closing on my newly constructed home in 2006,before the developer filed for bankruptcy,the insulation company put a lien on my house for unpaid amount by the developer.I gave it to the developer and they paid it.A guy i know,same happened but the developer filed for bankruptcy.He got stuck with the lien until he settled it.Where is the little people’s protection?

  22. Mocha says:

    Anyone else think $375.00 for a build a bear class is a bit much?

  23. grim says:

    What due diligence was done prior to entering into the contract with the developer?

    Let me guess. 2006? None. The builder was probably turning buyers away.

    Caveat emptor, when were claims ever made that these were riskless transactions?

  24. yo'me says:

    just another sign of people who have no sense of responsibility. when the going gets tough, run away. another sign of eroding values in our country. no pride, no shame, no dignity, no sense of responsibility and no honor. without these, what’s left?

    walking away might be legal, but it’s not right. walking away is also a character statement.

    #6 this answers your statement:

    Caveat emptor, when were claims ever made that these were riskless transactions?

  25. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [18] mike

    As a rule, you are correct, but there are spots close in that I don’t care for, and spots further out (e.g., Wychwood) that are desirable.

  26. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    Imus in rare form this morning. In response to Carter’s upcoming interview in which he slams Teddie Kennedy, Imus called him a “peanut-sucking weasel” and “the worst president in american history, until now.”

  27. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [18] mike

    You actually answered your own conundrum. Parking is tough and many folks take the train from Westfield. So walking distance to the train and downtown is a major selling point. What detracts, however, is that many of these homes are on busy routes or near apartments. Also, you don’t want to be THAT close to the train. So walking distance, but not right in downtown, is the most desirable.

  28. Painhrtz says:

    Mocha only cost me the price of a hunting license (30 bucks) for the shoot a bear workshop, and I get a new rug when I’m done.

    Nomad, out of curiosity when did it become the job of the rich to provide for the poor. They through business creation, provide jobs which in turn provide income. just because the poor lack the initiative to rise above their station does not mean someone else should have the fruits of their labor removed to provide a safety net. Since most of the poor are Christians I often use the teach a man to fish proverb. Then again since most Christians are hypocrites it falls on deaf ears.

    The definition of rich thanks to inflation has significantly changed as well. I make low six figures each year by the poor’s definition I’m rich, by the rich’s definition I’m middle class. The government on the other hand calls me rich. So I pay 50% of my salary in taxes when you account for Federal, State, Local, and sales taxes, wheras when I made 60K I was only paying 15%. So now I work twice as hard to make basically 15K more. Wow that is equitable, it is great being rich.

  29. grim says:

    The fact of the matter is that in the middle 00’s, the word preconstruction sent hearts aflutter with dreams of fast profits.

    You couldn’t go 2 days without reading a story about fortunes made buying preconstruction homes or condos.

    Somehow, everyone fell into believing that contracting a builder to build a house was the same kind of transaction as buying an already built one, except with much higher profits.

  30. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    IRS quarterly expatriates report now officially 51 days late. I never recall it being more that 26 days late at the most.

    This cannot be good.

  31. grim says:

    I have a hard time believing all these buyers were innocent “little guys”.

    Many entered into these contracts expecting hefty profits for short term flips.

    Was pretty easy for them to play the victim card when their scheme didnt work out in their favor.

  32. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    GLD now north of 125.

    Damn.

    So much for Hope and Change. Going out later to plow some of this fiat paper into more liquid assets with lasting value (e.g., booze, wine, and brewing extracts), and other metals (tools). Will also stock up on flour and baking mixes, and very glad I put away 10 lbs of sugar a while ago. Holiday baking won’t cost an arm and a leg.

  33. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [33] grim,

    One thing that Obama and the dems could have done with FinReg was to require lenders to spurn anyone that walks away from a home, or set things up so that defaulters will not be able to easily qualify in the future. After all, didn’t Frank say that not everyone should own a home? And would that not do more than anything else to prevent the sort of lending they decry?

    But they didn’t do that, did they? I think that this speaks volumes.

  34. Mike says:

    Comrade The popcorn from Westfield’s movie theatre will make the walk worth while!

  35. Sas3 says:

    “very glad I put away 10 lbs of sugar a while ago…”

    Hoarding groceries is probably not a great hedge against inflation — for example, if the inflation is 4000% annual rate, you’d have saved a hundred bucks by Christmas time — a few minutes of your billing?

    On the other hand, if there is no food around, and people are looting, then the sugar may be more valuable (I’d prefer trail mix, canned cr@p, dried fruits, biscuits, etc., for temporary sustenance).

    I put most of my faith in SPY and XLK over long term (20-30 yrs). SPY over GLD in 20 years?

  36. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [37] sas3

    Hoarding implies that I am stockpiling against a future SHTF event. That’s an expensive hobby. I suppose that this is a small hoard, but that is because it is tempered by the probability that TS won’t HTF during the lifespan of these stores.

    The sugar (and everything else) will get used. I just saw sugar climbing last year and said we have to put aside a good stock. I was proven correct. Now wheat has doubled, and flour prices will be higher, if not already. Does it save a lot? No, but when I buy on sales and ahead of shortages, I feed my family for less, and these incremental savings add up. Also makes for less trips to the store (very green).

    In olden times, we kept pantries stocked with food we would use, and always wanted enough in case of poor harvests. This is simply a modern version of the same—harvests may fail, and supplies will come in from elsewhere, but they will cost more. And after the experience in 2007-08, I am surprised you would question this.

  37. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    “Moodys: Housing prices to fall until Q3 of 2011”

    What will stop them from falling in Q3 of 2011? Giant asteroid hitting the planet? The end of days???

  38. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    Looks like the 3 days of POMO will juice the markets this week. Nothing like a little ramp up job before the elections. Rally on! God Bless Ben Shalom.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/prepare-pomo-monday-pomo-wednesday-and-pomo-friday

  39. jamil says:

    comrade:You think Thug Admin and its Sugar Czar is going to allow your sugar hoarding?
    At some point (decided by Thug Admin), you have enough sugar and you are not allowed to have more.
    It would be greedy. You have been warned.

  40. Sas3 says:

    “So I pay 50% of my salary in taxes when you account for Federal, State, Local, and sales taxes, wheras when I made 60K I was only paying 15%.”

    Math doesn’t add up well… The sales tax is a fixed percentage — so is FICA*. In fact, things like property taxes are regressive w.r.t. income if you hold property constant (though highly unlikely scenario).

    *actually FICA is regressive — depending on what end of low six figures you are at.

  41. Nomad says:

    Pain – I did not say the the rich have an obligation to take care of the poor – re read my post.

    When we renovated a home, general signed a piece of paper at the end personally guaranteeing that all subs had been paid in full. No signature, no $$.

  42. Sas3 says:

    Jamil #42, it seems there is no regulation on hoarding cr@p. You spew so much and still the fountain never seems to dry up.

  43. Yikes says:

    was this discussed over the weekend? missed most of the weekend chatter

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2010/09/nj_police_salaries_rank_highes.html

    A Star-Ledger analysis shows the average municipal cop in New Jersey is paid 80 percent more than the average resident, and three of 10 made at least $100,000 last year. In addition, police tend to be paid the best in small towns with little crime.

  44. Sas3 says:

    #38, “And after the experience in 2007-08, I am surprised you would question this.”

    At such small scales of storage — the effort vs benefit doesn’t seem to be appealing. On the other hand, if you are doing something at a nompound level, then that is major league.

  45. Double Down says:

    “walking away might be legal, but it’s not right.”

    Disagree. They are fulfilling the terms of the business contract (returning the asset to the lender).

    There is no wrong/right involved, it’s just a business transaction.

  46. Juice Box says:

    From # 48 – Check the default and 90 day delinquent rate for NY Metro.

    Staggering numbers.

    http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4c9763b67f8b9acc25100200/chart.jpg

  47. jamil says:

    Interesting initiative from the UK:

    “The UK’s tax collection agency is putting forth a proposal that all employers send employee paychecks to the government, after which the government would deduct what it deems as the appropriate tax and pay the employees by bank transfer. The proposal by Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) stresses the need for employers to provide real-time information to the government so that it can monitor all payments and make a better assessment of whether the correct tax is being paid. ”

    Well, according to some people, all your income belongs to the people anyway so better to send it directly from the employer to the Government. If you are nice to the Government, it may hand out some portion of your income to you.

  48. Mr Hyde says:

    Nomad

    Does it make sense to even attempt “moral” actions with an amoral entity ( banks)? It seems to me that such a situation is doomed to the moral entity coning out the financial loser in such a scenario compared to the amoral entity

  49. Unexpected HEHEHE says:

    This ramp job is no biggie, they are using all the ammo from the QE lite right now. If you buy in you better have trailing stops. They better hope this thing just drifts into the election and doesn’t crash. There’s supposedly little short interest in the market.

  50. Double Down says:

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2010/09/nj_police_salaries_rank_highes.html

    N.J. police salaries rank highest in nation with median pay of $90,672

    Last year, Closter had the sixth-best-paid department in New Jersey, with a median salary of $122,181 before overtime. Seventeen of its 20 officers, including Aiello, made at least $100,000.

  51. Painhrtz says:

    SAS3 after deductions at 60K was taking home 42K After deductions of low six figure taking home 58K. I could claim deductions at that salray level that I can’t now at salary threshhold. I’ll admit my life is a little better now than then. On the other hand I watch how much I’m bled for get pissed. Especially when I’m told, I’m rich and should be taxed more.

    nomad sorry I misunderstood. In a ranting mood this morning

  52. Poltroon says:

    nomad (14)-

    Bullshit. There’s a very easy way to value them: put them up for sale, then see who bids. Of course, we already know that these worthless pieces of scrip are worth anywhere from about .00 to .23, so the gubmint and the banksters are now engaged in a massive, fraudulent scheme to cover up this fact.

    “You talk about valuation of housing, mtg, etc – one thing that is interesting about all these RMBS is that they still don’t really have a sound way of assigning a value to them – it is still a bit of a “what do you think” type approach since there is no real proven sound methodology to determine what they are worth.”

  53. Confused In NJ says:

    A new CNBC poll out this morning shows President Obama has some major work to do on the economy. Fully 90% of Americans say they are “very” or “somewhat” worried about the economy. That’s a higher percentage than when the same question was asked in 2008, at the height of the financial crisis.

    More troubling for the president is that a majority of people either blames him for the sluggish recovery or thinks Washington can’t fix the problems.

  54. Poltroon says:

    mocha (23)-

    Is it a build-a-bear, or a sex doll?

    BTW, I’d cough up the $375 if you could shoot the bear or set it on fire.

    “Anyone else think $375.00 for a build a bear class is a bit much?”

  55. Poltroon says:

    plume (35)-

    TPTB can’t wait until the banksters can hitch their wagons again to the same crew who’s recently defaulted on all kinds of credit obligations.

    I fully expect a national default scenario to be coupled with a hit on the reset button for anyone with a low FICO.

    Everyone will get a pony…up until we reach a point at which everyone will need to eat his pony.

  56. Sas3 says:

    #56 Pain, 120k income isn’t rich by the govt’s definition — your AGI can be dropped using 401k and deferred income — a few tens of K per person. If you are paying 50% taxes at a 120k income level, you need a tax accountant.

    Of course, if you were salaried before and now are a contractor it is apples and oranges (contractors have to pay the 7.5% FICA — and you can’t count sales tax because the customer is directly paying for it anyway). The difference between salaried and contractor at least 7.5% right off the bat [usually one accounts for that in your billing rate or sales price].

  57. Painhrtz says:

    Pol and for those of us with ammo to tkae others ponies for our own consumption

  58. Poltroon says:

    sastry (61)-

    Great. You can get out of taxes by dropping money- and watching it go bye-bye forever- into a shithole of a 401K.

    It will also be a real giggle when the gubmint forces 401K account holders to buy USTs…probably doing so just as that market begins to collapse.

  59. Poltroon says:

    pain (62)-

    I shot a man in Reno just to watch him die.

  60. Rating agencies are busy. Downgrading continues, thanks to such a huge bubble.

  61. Poltroon says:

    Greatest line in a country music song ever.

  62. Poltroon says:

    So, if Illinois can fund pensions for ten more years before going belly-up, that should mean NJ can go for at least, say, 11 years before the same happens to us?

    Where is the hero who will take out Orin Kramer?

    “A month ago, we discussed the death spiral that the Illinois Teachers Retirement Fund has now entered by openly commencing to sell its securities. We stated: “At this point it is too late: for TRS, and likely for many, many other comparable pension funds, which had hoped that the Fed would by now inflate the economy, and fix their massively incorrect investment exposure, the jig may be up. As liquidations have already commenced, the fund is beyond the point where it can “extend and pretend”, and absent the market staging a dramatic rally, government bonds plunging, and risk spreads on CDS collapsing, the fund is likely doomed to a slow at first, then ever faster death.” This speculation immediately prompted a response by Dave Urbanek who replied to Leo Kolivakis (we have yet to hear from Mr. Urbanek directly), who said: “Please remove your post of Tyler Durden’s inaccurate analysis of the Illinois Teachers’ Retirement System. It is not excellent. It is wrong. TRS is not in a death spiral. We’ll still be operating and paying pensions for years to come.” Yup – about 10 years to be precise, and then it’s over. Today, Bloomberg’s Jon Erlichman settles the debate, by focusing on the Illinois State Board of Investment in a special video report, where he confirms that absent state funding “the $9.6 billion fund, in less than 10 years, could have no money left. If they get no state funding and they just have to rely on employee contributions, there you go, you could go from $10 billion to zero in less than ten years.” There you go indeed. Our condolences to Illinois pensioners – you now have about 10 years of natural asset coverage, absent your pension funds becoming the latest government-sponsored ponzi scheme.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/illinois-pension-fund-death-spiral-revisited-10-years-money-left

  63. Al Gore says:

    JP Morgan ramp down job on bullion now in progress. I suspect the gold vigilantes will not take this sitting down. More raids on the LBMA coming up.

  64. Painhrtz says:

    Sas no kids, no house no deductions, and I wish i was making 120

  65. Painhrtz says:

    Clot i concur greatest line ever. Love Johnny Cash and I hate country music

  66. Al Gore says:

    Santelli over the weekend was short term bullish on bullion. He claims that the market down the road will force interest rates higher which will be bearish on bullion. Kudlow and Santelli are playing this like 1981. It was a good debate but here are my thoughts.

    When Greece’s interest rates spiked in late spring gold was selling for 1700 physical on the street. My argument is this isnt 1981. What we are witnessing is the death spiral of fiat money. In the words of the good Dr. Paul. “This is the biggest event in world monetary history. Never before has the whole world been run on a fiat money system. We will survive the collapse and return to sound money. Im excited.”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBIuU9Vl_3E&feature=player_embedded

  67. Poltroon says:

    Al (68)-

    Things that are guaranteed to happen:

    1. LBMA fails to deliver.

    2. CRIMEX fails to deliver.

    3. A UST auction will fail.

  68. Outofstater says:

    #38 Nom – I keep my pantry full too, at least one extra of everything we use. Between the pantry and the freezer, we probably have two weeks of good, regular meals and a few more weeks of not so good – dried beans and rice.

  69. Poltroon says:

    al (71)-

    It’s not 1981. It’s 1929.

  70. Nomad says:

    #57 – if you have a pool of mtgs you don’t & can’t just sell them at the drop of a hat so you have to do some financial modeling to try to figure out what the portfolio is worth. A pool of mtgs is illiquid (defined as > 1 year to turn the entire pool of mtgs into cash).

    Mtg pools and housing in general is becoming even more iliquid and will remain so until late 2012 at best and likely a year or two after that. We both know there is no way a bank or financial institution is going to take 0 – .23 on a dollar right now.

  71. Nomad says:

    is = are

  72. Sas3 says:

    Pain, married? If not, marry for love, money, tax breaks, or lower auto-insurance… :)

  73. Sas3 says:

    Out #73… Water is probably the most critical one, and most painful to store. If “they” shut down the water mains, it becomes really painful. Of course, if the mobs do come hunting, we can’t take the water with us.

  74. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [47] sas3

    Don’t mind that you disagree, or even that you don’t take a similar tack. Someone has to pay spot prices.

    [73] out

    Not there yet. I think we could go two weeks, but I doubt it. Goal is to ramp up slowly, taking advantage of sales and paying attention to where prices are going. For example, I laid in a lot of coffee recently, but stopped when it seemed that the market shortage may ease. Sugar was something I added last year, and to good effect. Other things, like canned foods (soups, pasta sauces, veggies, etc) I add as sales permit.

    Hard part is enforcing proper inventory management on my wife. Her idea of food use is LIFO. Also, she overbuys perishables, which is always a struggle. Wish I had a bigger 2nd freezer too, but if things ever went bad, you would not want too much thawing at once.

    [78] sas3,

    I am stockpiling water. As the baby finished a water jug (used for formula), I filled it with filtered water, resealed it, and put it aside. Also put aside recycled containers filled with tap water. Finally, filling some other containers with tap water I would consider nonpotable due to the storage medium (mylar bags from the coffee boxes that my wife gets for in-house meetings). This is an emergency supply, not meant for living after TSHTF, but more like what you would want on hand after a hurricane, for example.

    As with all such things, the ability to store your stockpiles are important. Space limits your options.

  75. Mr Hyde says:

    Poltroon

    1. LBMA fails to deliver.

    2. CRIMEX fails to deliver.

    Both have already occurred. The question is when does the market decide to recognize the events.

  76. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [47] sas3

    remember also two things:

    1. Ag shortages are temporary.
    2. Ag has a shelf life.

    This limits my stockpiling to what I think will increase in price, and what I plan to use.

    my final word on this, BTW. It is a real estate blog

  77. Mr Hyde says:

    Nom,

    Put a few containers of water into your freezer (with room for the water to expand) as space permits if you suspect a power outage may be looming. It will help to slow the thawing process.

  78. Al Gore says:

    80.

    Hyde,

    The BIS is keeping the LBMA in bullion. It cant and wont last.

  79. Mr Hyde says:

    Nom,

    A small generator fitted to run off of propane (LPG) can keep the fridge and freezer running for a while off of a few standard 20lb propane tanks. Use propane as it doesnt go bad, doesnt need stabilizers and will not gum up the motor is only run infrequently. You can also buy generators that are setup to run off of both gasoline and LPG. There are also conversion kits if you already own a gasoline generator and want to run duel-fuel.

  80. Mike says:

    The recession is over? Not according to my hairline.

  81. Painhrtz says:

    SAS married, now have house so expect more deductions. ReallyI would give up all deductions for flat tax applying to everyone, then again I think I have a better chance of seeing the Flying Spaghetti Monster and the Invisible Pink Unicorn fighting it out for diety supremacy first

  82. Al Gore says:

    Nom,

    I bought a ketadyne water filter with spare filters. Nice and small and I think the filtration is like 0.3 microns. Next spring Im borrowing a rototiller and planting my whole backyard with vegetables. The grass is dead and I need to rework the soil based on my Rutgers soil test anyway.

    I sleep much better now that I am relatively prepared. Compared to last year I was sh_tting in my pants. Now it like watching an entertaining soap opera.

  83. Juice Box says:

    So it’s not genetics and not stuffing your face that makes kids obese today.

    It’s a virus?

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39235187/ns/health-kids_and_parenting/

  84. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [80] hyde

    I keep bags of ice cubes in my 2nd freezer, along with the freezer packs we use from time to time. That way, the space isn’t dead space—these things get used.

    [87] gore

    Got one of those too. But need the water in the first place, so I am looking at rain barrels.

  85. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    Breaking news — Government Motors financing unit, GMAC, to halt foreclosures.

  86. Poltroon says:

    nomad (75)-

    Which are you, a bankster or a gubmint criminal?

    I also call bullshit on the entirety of post #75. There is a difference between illiquidity and suppression of price discovery. Play that trick somewhere else.

  87. Poltroon says:

    nomad (75)-

    Mark-to-model. Mark-to-fantasy. Boy, it sucks when you need to create an outcome that the actual market of ready, willing and able buyers isn’t willing to give you.

    “…so you have to do some financial modeling to try to figure out what the portfolio is worth.”

  88. Al Gore says:

    89.

    I saw some rain barrels at home depot. I just dont want to have a mosquito incubator in my backyard. I would rather dig a well. Whatever happened to all the wells? When I was a kid it seemed everyone watered their lawns with well water. I guess they got sick of the iron stained side walks.

  89. Poltroon says:

    Nomad, let me try this in reverse: if the market for all MBS suddenly valued them pretty much across the board at par, would you find the sudden liquidity and healthy market activity that would follow to be fraudulent? Would you even find it suspicious?

  90. Barbara says:

    concerning the BI article about shadow inventory….
    http://www.businessinsider.com/the-7-million-shadow-inventory-could-set-off-a-housing-price-avalanche-2010-9

    So its what we all knew/suspected but the obvious is question is….when? When does it all come online? The bailout we couldn’t have predicted, but now we can. I find myself torn between continuing to wait for godot, or just buy assuming there will be another gubmint bailout and just financing heavy, staying cash heavy. We need to move. I’m not going to rent. I’m getting to old for this sh*t…..

  91. Juice Box says:

    re: # 94 – Without mark to unicorns they are all insolvent even with all of the Fed welfare. As home prices fall another 20% will it be game over is really the question?

    Government is now talking principal forgiveness/principal reduction to help out those drowning but is it even possible to save someone who hasn’t made a payment in a year?

  92. Mr Hyde says:

    juice 96, barbara,

    who is going to buy all of these foreclosures???? who has the income and the credit rating that hasnt already bought????

    The whole amnesty issue makes a little more sense in this light, as large scale amnesty and all sorts of of HUD and other government home buying programs could suddenly generate a new wave of buyers.

  93. Poltroon says:

    Juice (96)-

    It is all such a clusterfcuk now that I should probably be revising my 20-40 call on market stabilization to 50 years+. All I really hope for now is to be able to expatriate before it all goes to black. If I’m still stuck here, my simple wish is to be presented with as many Lee Harvey-quality shots and scenarios as the angels will grant me.

  94. Poltroon says:

    hyde (97)-

    Much the way slumlords use a succession of sham companies to continue their enterprises, the USG will keep creating dumpsters (Phony, Fraudy, Ginnie) to pack full of garbage paper.

  95. Poltroon says:

    barb (95)-

    Why does getting older make renting any easier or harder?

  96. Poltroon says:

    OMG…I’m getting older…I must go out and buy this festering turd NOW!!!!!!

  97. whipped says:

    someone tell me why the market is going up with all this bad news?

  98. Nomad says:

    Polt – based on your comments, one would have to sell every home in the portfolio to determine what the actual value is but if the portfolio is being traded, then one has to assign a value to it – so modelling or guessing is the only way.

    And yes, if it were traded at face value I would be suspect. No, I am not gov’t or bank nor am I finance or RE. Nothing even close. Just a working class stiff trying in vain to keep up with the intellectual thoroughbreads on this board like you.

    To everyone – back in the 60s, 70s and 80s, were primary mtgs recourse loans and if so, when did they change? Was there a time if you signed on the line and did not pay, they threw you out and sold the place to get their money back?

  99. Confused In NJ says:

    102.whipped says:
    September 20, 2010 at 3:03 pm
    someone tell me why the market is going up with all this bad news

    Bernanke is generating government buy orders.

  100. Barbara says:

    Poltron,

    shitty plumbing, shitty neighbors downstairs and their shitty kids, shitty carpet, shitty oven, shitty paint job, shitty person who has keys to my living space, shitty heat, shitty lawn.

  101. Painhrtz says:

    grim 96 moderation not sure why?

  102. freedy says:

    and poor lindsay is all coked up

  103. Juice Box says:

    Market is going up? News to me it hasn’t been make higher highs or lower lows. It has been trading sideways. We will be lucky if we get out of this mess with just sideways.

  104. Poltroon says:

    whip (102)-

    Four letters:

    P
    O
    M
    O

  105. Mr Hyde says:

    Dont forget, POMO is scheduled for wednesday and friday as well. Looks like a heck of a week for the market!!!!

  106. Poltroon says:

    Nomad (103)-

    You don’t have to sell each piece of underlying collateral. Every MBS can be instantly valued by analyzing the current revenue streams. The investor is buying the revenue stream, not the underlying collateral.

    The biggest problem with bad loans isn’t their non-recourse nature; back in the old days, lenders had to portfolio the loans they made, so thingys like due diligence and risk assessment were very big with mortgage bankers. The advent of securitization was soon followed by fog-a-mirror underwriting standards and abandonment of risk analysis, as the attitude that no one investor could be hurt very much took hold.

  107. Poltroon says:

    barb (105)-

    If somebody tells me I have a choice between renting a turd and buying it, I’ll rent.

    BTW, you can change the locks.

  108. Unexpected HEHEHE says:

    “Dont forget, POMO is scheduled for wednesday and friday as well. Looks like a heck of a week for the market!!!!”

    Like I said before, they better hope for a drift and not a collapse.

  109. Poltroon says:

    hyde (110)-

    Short interest at an all-time low. Insider selling at record pace.

    When the bottom falls out of this rigged-up farce, we will see a Black Friday-type event.

  110. Poltroon says:

    hyde (110)-

    In other words, the heroin addict now needs a fix every other day.

  111. A.West says:

    I went to an open house yesterday just for fun. 5br 4.5bath in Basking Ridge. $1.15mn, already has two offers, at least one from a Chinese family. When I was there it was all Chinese and Indian families looking at it. Basement unfinished, but upstairs has some coffered ceilings and more nicely painted walls. Packed in a little tight to the neighbors in my opinion, but that whole The Hills development is like that, in my opinion. Only 2 car garage. Big deck, so that’s a lot of wood to replace in 10-15 years.

    Same house with more land goes for about $250k less 15 minutes south in Bridgewater. It’s amazing how the move-up money likes to cluster in the very top school districts, and follows the momentum – the higher the relative pricing, the more people want to live there, because it’s “prestigious”. The funny thing is that driving through The Hills and its million dollar McMansions, I saw more beater cars in the driveways than I expected. Maybe the big mortgages are pinching some of these budgets.

  112. Poltroon says:

    Reggie weighs in on IL teacher Ponzi (ZH):

    “Hey, Mr. and Mrs. Illinois Teacher, Reggie Middleton thinks your pension fund is picking up pennies in front of a freight train!

    So, we have teacher’s pensions writing insurance on the biggest European debacle of this century. We have same said pension buying the debt of assets, 40% of which are probably underwater. What was not mentioned thus far is that this very same pension has more than 80% of its holdings considered “risky” according to a study by “Pensions and Investments”, and industry rag – and that was in 2008, without the benefit pending defaults in Europe and the ever higher climb of LTVs in CRE.

    Then there’s the fact that TRS is also:

    -selling swaptions,

    -shorting international interest rate swaps

    -knee deep in GNMA, FNMA instruments

    …and this is just from a cursory view of their holdings. They paid over $160 million in management fees, and if I had to take a guess, they are reaching for yield and quick returns over the prudence of looking to preserve capital which in my opinion should be the mantra of a pension fund shepherding the retirement funds of real people. Then again, there I go being old fashioned again.

    In addition to the market performance of the actual positions themselves, one must ponder… If a credit event is triggered, does the Illinois TRS have the liquid capital to make good on its CDS obligations? When BoomBustBlog created the Sovereign Contagion Model, who knew it left out Illinois. If the TRS is unable to make good on its CDS positions in the event of a tail event, it is definitely not unfathomable that Illinois could be the domino that falls into the blow up the CDS market.

    Illinois is facing what Hayman Capital Advisors manager Kyle Bass referred to as “The Keynesian Endpoint”. To paraphrase, when debt service exceeds revenue, deficit spending becomes permanent and structural until default inevitably occurs. Since the bursting of the housing and credit consumption bubble back in 2008, tax revenues have fallen, and pension liabilities continue to receive funding through debt markets. Using basic accounting, the gimmicks used to placate state employees are about to come to an end.”

  113. yo'me says:

    , they threw you out and sold the place to get their money back?

    When the under lying collateral is worth more than the mortgage,they will gladly throw you in the street.

  114. Poltroon says:

    west (116)-

    The Hills blows. Probably 50-60 AQ living there, too.

  115. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    Doom (114):

    Agreed, this is setting up for a horriffic tumble. I may jump in to make a quick 10% but this market is totally rigged. The gubbmint is not even trying to hide the overt manipulation. God bless the Fed and the POMO!

  116. Mr Hyde says:

    RE GMAC Halts All Foreclosures In 23 States On Heels Of Florida Judge Finding JPM Committed Court Fraud In Mortgage Misappropriation

    Doesnt this potentially set the stage for a huge tank in home values? If the chain of custody of the title to the house for all of the homes that have had their mortgages securitized over the last 5 – 10 years is now in doubt and said doubt is being recognized in court, the odds of an easy clean title seem to be dropping quickly.

  117. A.West says:

    Juice Box (88),
    I was a skinny kid until I was six, was in bed with a fever for a couple of days, and have basically been overweight ever since. But I think the main virus is the massive amount of refined carbs (grain & sugar) that has been injected into the government approved “healthy diet”.

    The last couple of months I’ve cut out anything starchy or sweet, and eaten as much meat and fat as I’m hungry for, and lost about 20 pounds. Looking at grocery trips and restaurant menus through this filter, I see government subsidized farmers and grain processors running amok, while retailers earn high margins selling high margin, non-nutritious filler, to which people have become addicted. This in turn, is driving up Type 2 diabetes to record levels.

    Here is an excellent article by Gary Taubes on the matter:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2002/07/07/magazine/what-if-it-s-all-been-a-big-fat-lie.html
    I read his book “Good Calories, Bad Calories” a couple months ago. It changed my dietary life in much the same way “Atlas Shrugged” changed the rest of my life.

  118. Juice Box says:

    re #116 – re: BAsking Ridge

    For a good laugh see what the kids write about that town. Several pages….

    http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Basking%20Ridge&defid=1210776

  119. Mr Hyde says:

    Yome 118

    Good luck throwing people out if they have been paying attention at all. Between the MERS debacles and the associated recent court rulings, and the various state laws that come into play if you challenge forclosure, you are looking at 2 years “worst case” before the bank could actually kick you out. Meanwhile you arent paying a dime. of course the smart money might consider placing those mortgage payments into escrow as a CYA.

    Step one is to get an attorney to write a letter to your servicer demanding that they prove that they hold legal claim. Its a real possibility that they cant do so.

    Clot, Grim,

    How does adverse possession work in NJ???

  120. Mr Hyde says:

    A west

    I did the same. I started to put on the pounds and cut the carbs out. I try to stick to veggies and protein. It makes a huge difference.

  121. A.West says:

    Juice Box,
    Basking Ridge isn’t nearly as white as the Urban Dictionary folks were saying back in 2005. Mount Prospect Elementary, near The Hills, is 40% Asian (Chinese + Indian, I assume). The high school is currently only at 13%, but that will be trending up in coming years. Those kids tend to pull up SAT score averages. Black plus hispanic equals a total of 4%, so few kids to drag down the town average. White parents whose kids simply aren’t smart probably freak out and perscribe Ritalin to little Graydon, getting him on the special ed/athletics track, so his self-esteem doesn’t suffer when all the Chinese kids whip him in academics.

    Interesting that someone said that The Hills isn’t “real” Basking Ridge.

  122. Barbara says:

    123. Juice.

    I just learned about “aberzombies” thanks to your link. hehehe

  123. A.West says:

    Poltroon,
    What’s AQ?
    I remember you hoped for my whole street to blow up or something. Tullo Farm Rd in Bridgewater. My neighbor finally sold his house a few weeks back, haven’t met the new folks yet. One home left right at the end of the road, that guy has got to cut his price to sell. Bought for $840k in early 2007, fancied it up, now listed to sell for $900, down from $999k. It’s been on the market since March.

    Do you think there would be demand for a NJrereport GTG is Bridgewater? Seems like most of the readership slants eastward.

  124. Nomad says:

    111 – Polt – so the value of the cash over the targeted holding period is the #.

    How can you cook that – either the cash is flowing or not. I would think part of the valuation then is to figure out how many of the paying loans will stop doing so over a certain time period correct? then a few of the mtgs actually get pre-paid (old school) and all this info is dumped into the cash flow calculating blender and it spits out a number and you get the value of it – correct? You also try to figure out what it will be worth at the end of the targeted holding period too so as not to shoot yourself in the foot on the back end.

    Seems like a portion of this is subjective – ie rates of default and then what as an investor will I get, if anything when the non-performing asset is sold.

    If the above is more or less the way it is done, then in theory the value of the home becomes irrelevant (sans losses from the default foreclosed units) because if the homeowners actually pay off the loan, the banks (you and I really) don’t get stiffed with the bill. I know I know – default rates so high it kills portfolio value.

    Polt – I have to say, this is not all as black and white as you make it out to be but you have educated me today and I appreciate your patience.

    If people only realized that they are prisoners to their stuff and it won’t make them happy…

    My employer lent me an i-Pad – what a stupid thing that is but people will buy em by the millions. USA – highest rate of depression in the industrialized world (china might be creeping up though).

    Too much posting 4 me today – back to work.

  125. Anon E. Moose says:

    Doom [111];

    …as the attitude that no one investor could be hurt very much took hold.

    At sertain poker tables (typically low-limit) it’s called the ‘schooling’ effect. Thumbnail – the shark at the table has an advantage against any one of the fish he’s playing with. But if they all play hands that they refuse to fold, one of them will hit the miracle card to beat him – imagine playing against another player who looks at 9 hands to your one, and he gets to pick the best of them. Hence the ‘school’ of fish can beat the shark.

    Circling back around, no one mortgage in the pool going bad can bring down any one of the investors. Its when they ALL start to go bad that all the invetors get hurt. But it doesn’ t matter anyway because a Realtor® probably told the bankster that property values only go up.

  126. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    In Reality, Housing Is Not Even Close to Stabilizing

    http://www.minyanville.com/articles/print.php?a=30169

  127. Poltroon says:

    west (122)-

    Lookout for ketosis. Bad side effect of no-carb diets.

  128. Mr Hyde says:

    Awest

    Black plus hispanic equals a total of 4%, so few kids to drag down the town average. …..

    Why you got to hate!

  129. yo'me says:

    GMAC: Foreclosures continuing
    GMAC denies reports that it had a moratorium in 23 states

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-giant-halts-foreclosures-2010-09-20?dist=afterbell

  130. Libtard says:

    Busted my Achilles tendon yesterday during a coaching practice for KinderKickers. I wasn’t even stretched when it happened. I was just dribbling the soccer ball and it felt like someone kicked my leg out from underneath me. I swear, first thing I did was look to see which wise guy there did it. Turned around and only saw my soccer ball. Surgery is on Friday and then I’m in a non-weight bearing cast for 4-6 weeks. Blow me.

  131. SG says:

    Talk about Mega Bubble…

    Bubble City’s $3.2 Million Flat Spells Danger: William Pesek

    A year ago, many thought an apartment selling for HK$24.5 million ($3.2 million) was the peak. A one-bedroom, 816 square- foot (76 square-meter) flat in the city’s Kowloon district going for such a sum had insanity written all over it. Think again; Hong Kong property is still on the rise.

    Earlier this month, Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chief Executive Norman Chan said risks in the property market may exceed those in 1997, the height of a previous bubble that was followed by a six-year slump that sent values more than 50 percent lower.

    If policy makers aren’t careful, $3.2 million apartments will become too commonplace for comfort. And it will be too late to avoid another crash.

  132. jcer says:

    To me the most likely scenario will involve currency debasement, so I think in nominal terms the gov’t will do what ever it can to make sure US currency is worth approximately 50% of what is worth now so that the system can stay afloat. I don’t think it is really all that big a secret that most financial firms and governmental entities are actually insolvent, their liabilities are far larger than their assets. I don’t foresee the end of the world scenario that many here think will come. I definitely see lean times ahead but think it will come at the hands of inflation and wage stagnation not deflation.

  133. Libtard says:

    Also, we have a few roster spots open on our ice hockey team. Two guys are out of work and are not playing due to their financial situation. Let me know if any of you guys are interested.

  134. A.West says:

    Hyde,
    I’m just talking statistics. Look at the school stats and “diversity” = lower averages = lower school rankings, most of the time. So I think that much of the time, paying more for a “better school district” in effect means finding a school district with fewer lower-scoring minorities and more higher income parents that take an active interest in their kids’ education. Teachers however, like to imagine that they are simply better teachers in these better districts. Probably not, most of the time, they just have, on average, more attentive, better prepared students to work with.

    No hating here. When I played little league baseball growing up in Florida, I was the token white kid on the team, because the coach on the white side of town didn’t think I looked like a winner. Our baseball diamond was set up right next to the junk yard. We whipped the white kids’ team pretty well, I threw a couple of shutouts against them over the years. My teammates were good guys, though none of them ever went on to college, and I heard that my favorite catcher later grew up and went to jail for killing his girlfriend.

    I do despise rap and hip hop however.

  135. Unexpected HEHEHE says:

    Bank Of America Cutting 5% Of Capital Markets’ Personnel, Firing 400 Employees Globally, Many More To Come…Er… Go

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bank-america-cutting-5-capital-markets-personnel-firing-400-employees-globally-many-more-com

    Need to make John Paulson some $$$. Cut some heads. How much of Johnny P’s buying up all that BAC stock had more to do with the SEC not going after him for that Abacus deal?

  136. Yikes says:

    walking away might be legal, but it’s not right. walking away is also a character statement.

    Disagree completely. Sometimes, it is strictly a business decision.

  137. nj escapee says:

    142, (Shore) Obma’s base slipping away from him.

    To where, Kenya?

  138. Pat says:

    Stu, I’ve been doing laps with my 9 yo daughter for a while. Pulled her off the mega team about a month ago after I realized she was getting no coaching, so now I’m doing even more laps.

    Last week, I started having internal pain and I do not even want to tell you what I hurt. This morning at 7 am in the pool, I had to walk. Sucks to be 47.

  139. Al Gore says:

    135.

    Wait until Obamacare kicks in. They will stick you right in the cast and hand you a pair of crutches.

  140. Libtard says:

    Nom hoarding (38):

    Captain cheapo has a fairly sizable pantry too. When non-perishable foods that we use regularly go on sale, we stock up. For instance, there is great sale this week at Shoprite where many Del Monte canned foods are 10 for 10. There was also a coupon in the ShopRite flyer for $5 off of $15 of these cans which lowers them to 66 cents. These are usually about $2. I will use these over the next year or so. Will probably buy 30 of them. About twice a month I find such a deal. I’ve been known to buy multiple copies of the Sunday paper for $2 each if the coupons inside will save me $20 or more for the week, which is also common. Add the $5 Entertainment book coupon, the $5 Val-Pak coupon and the various 35 and 50 cent off ShopRite coupon in the Super Saver, plus the 5% cash back from Amex on groceries, plus the $spend $300 get get 10% off your next shopping order deal and we are talking savings approaching 2/3rds of the shopping order. Not to mention the manufacturers coupons. Some people say clipping coupons is not worth the time. I think it saves me about $50 per hour. Honestly. Nom understands this. So few do.

  141. Libtard says:

    Pat, I turn 40 in a few weeks. I know what you mean. Apparently, the tendon think I experienced mainly impacts recreational athletes between 30 and 50. I guess I hit the lottery right at the peak of the bell curve.

  142. Poltroon says:

    hyde (124)-

    Do you want a def. for adverse possession or a simple eviction?

    Adverse possession is centered on the “open and notorious” use of a property over time by a squatter who is attempting to claim title.

  143. Al Gore says:

    CNBC reaction, pretty freakin funny: Jim Rickards- Gold Standard is Plan B and Revalue Gold at $5000+ (Dollar is Collapsing)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gSnV_krW0U&feature=player_embedded

  144. Poltroon says:

    West (128)-

    AQ = Al Qaeda

    I’m sorry for wishing your street to blow up. To be fair, I think I wished it before you moved in. :)

  145. Poltroon says:

    Moose (130)-

    If you think Realtors ever advised banksters on structuring MBS, you are dumber than I first imagined.

  146. Poltroon says:

    Lib (135)-

    Hey, you did your Achilles the same way Beckham did his. Tell that to your pals.

    Seriously, sorry to hear that.

  147. Poltroon says:

    Lib (139)-

    Two questions:

    1. Do I have to be able to skate?

    2. Are there lots of fights?

  148. Libtard says:

    Speaking of morals and being sick of paying for others errors, I probably have a wonderful injury case against the Redbulls. Their trainer put us through some serious drills in mid 80’s sunshine for an hour with no stretching before. There were about twelve of us all between about 35 and 60 years in age. Trust me, we all broke a hefty sweat. I was never made aware that we would be participating in drills and had I known, I would have stretched. I have a very rigid stretching ritual that I perform before hockey games and I never fail to do it. It takes about ten minutes on the ice and five minutes off. I have a good feeling that had I stretched, I would not have been immobilized for the next five or six weeks. My brother is an injury lawyer who makes some mad loot on these types of cases. I would probably be looking at a six-figure settlement with no risk.

    Now my morals tell me not to do it and I most likely won’t, but I am so sick of having to pay for others unwise decisions. My homeowners went up 30% this year and my auto 20%, both with no claims/points. Am I being stupid for not getting some back? I mean, I’ve gone my whole life without an insurance claim. I can’t tell you what I paid in. I suppose it’s nice to finally get something back for the hundreds of thousands I have paid in with this injury, but the out of pocket is still insanely high. This injury will probably cost me 3K or so before it’s over and that’s with excellent health care coverage. On the bright side, the waits so far at the ER, bone doctor and physical therapist have been short. I have c0ld today to boot.

  149. Poltroon says:

    West (140)-

    Stop it, man. Bro’s before ho’s…always.

    “I heard that my favorite catcher later grew up and went to jail for killing his girlfriend.”

  150. Libtard says:

    Poon,

    If you can’t skate, then you can’t fight. If you fight, then you can’t skate in the next two games. Got it? Still wanna play?

  151. Poltroon says:

    Lib (155)-

    I’d sue the Dead Bulls. Those guys have some serious jack (car racing, airplane racing, Salzburg Dead Bulls, NY Dead Bulls).

    Your settlement would be Thierry Henry’s beer money for a week.

  152. still_looking says:

    crap, modded – I think the antibiotics did it- I’ll remove them…

    sl

  153. Poltroon says:

    What’s hockey without fighting?

  154. still_looking says:

    still_looking says:
    Your comment is awaiting moderation.
    September 20, 2010 at 8:40 pm

    Lib,

    Was just warning my MIL about achilles tendon ruptures in folks taking any kind of fluoroquinolone antibiotics, ie [examples of them here], and others.

    Sorry to hear it. You described the textbook hx for it though – the sense that someone kicked you in the back of the leg. Tendon does not have to be in ‘stretched’ mode for it to happen — it is the sudden contraction of the gastrocnemius muscle that causes it as during a sudden start (as you learned, in soccer and tennis where sudden starts and stops are frequent.)

    Hope your surgery goes well. I don’t know the rehab time for it…your orthopod will advise you.

    sl

  155. Poltroon says:

    Stu, be sure to tell your surgeon you don’t want any trayf replacement parts.

  156. Libtard says:

    Thanks SL. Most likely 8 to 12 weeks before I am castless. 4 to 6 weeks before it can bear any weight.

  157. Mr Hyde says:

    A west

    just busting your chops!

  158. Fabius Maximus says:

    Quite a few posts to catch up to.

    Food: The lobbiest our out in force trying to get HFCS renamed as “Corn Sugar”
    http://www.aolnews.com/article/high-fructose-corn-syrup-rebrand-embraced-by-foodie-luminaries/19641531

    Why didn’t they just aim for “corn, sugar” instead.

  159. Fabius Maximus says:

    Why do my Facebook “so called” friends have to post stuff like this! Its beyond annoying

    http://www.americanthinker.com/

  160. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [148] libtard

    Stu, sorry to hear it. My dad did that in his 50s, just strolling across a court during a tennis game. He said the pain was indescribable, and he was laid up for awhile.

  161. Fabius Maximus says:

    Nom.

    Stocking your pantry should follow Stu’s rules. If your Grocery store receipt does no say at least 30% saved, you failed. Coupons are there to be used. buy the 10c toothpaste, if you cant use it, donate it to a shelter.
    Every season I buy a ShopRite Pismo (on sale) with my coupon saving. After the steaks, the triming go into the Italian Gravy. Most of the food in Chez Fabius is made from scratch, it is the most important skill you can ever teach your kids.

    For your pantry, put your flour in air tight containers and freeze for 24 hrs to kill off anything that would ruin shelf life. Add Vinegar and Salt to your bulk purchases and learn how to smoke and cure. If I lose power to my freezer(S), Brine, cure, salt, smoke, can or refreeze. Even the large amount of Frozen Butter I have on hand (on sale prices) will get canned.

    Note that stored water can go bad.
    If you want local brewing supplies check out Corrados in Clifton.

  162. Fabius Maximus says:

    #23 Mocha,

    Take that $375 and throw your kid a kick ass party at home. I’m in the process of planning a Mad Hatter Tea Party for one of my kids. Between the keg for the adults, some catering (god forbid) for some food, goodwill shop for china and hats, and a boat load of prep, this is looking like it will go down as one of the best we’ve thrown.

  163. Shore Guy says:

    Stu,

    Sorry to hear about your injury, and good luck with the rehab. One thing, it is vital to work your @ss off to get back to the same ROM and strength s before. In fact, itit is not a bad goal to get to a bit over 100% of the strength of the other leg. Don’t settle for 85-90% of either.

    Does this mean Gator will be bringing you meals in bed for awalie, or is that something that the Peoples’ Republic of Montclir does as a matter of course?

  164. jamil says:

    142 Keith “Has this been posted yet?”

    Link to NYT, what, you have moved on? No more Obamaweek postings and hysteric rants about Bush?
    Heck, at this rate you’ll move to the right of Ruth Ginsburg and Micheal Moore in a year.
    It’s amazing what two years of marxist beating can do even for out of touch liberal.

    I think it is fair to say that when O has lost Shore, he is toast.
    So, I suppose, is Shore’s career at msnbc.

  165. Shore Guy says:

    Flash cookies. I wonder if they go well with milk?

    http://mobile.nytimes.com/article?a=665096&f=23

  166. Barbara says:

    I can’t get with the whole food stocking thing. I hate even looking at stocked food in a house or frige/freezer. Old food never tastes good to me. I buy shop every three days or so, buy fresh, cook it and eat it within a week.

  167. Barbara says:

    “buy food” even

  168. Al Gore says:

    Fed meeting tomorrow usual time. Id like to think the game can continue for another year but I have my doubts. Its time to strap on the adult diapers and get ready for the ride.

  169. chicagofinance says:

    YOU MUST GIVE CREDIT WHERE CREDIT IS DUE…..

    SERIOUS FCUKING STONES!

    Greek Default Would Be a ‘Tragedy,’ Papandreou Says (Update1)
    Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A By Daniel Kruger

    Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) — Greece’s Prime Minister George Papandreou ruled out any plans to restructure debt and repeated that the country plans to return to international capital markets as soon as possible.

    “We are not going to default,” Papandreou said today during an interview with Betty Liu at the New York Stock Exchange. “Default would be a tragedy.”

    Critics including Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the global financial crisis, have said that an orderly restructuring of Greece’s public debt is required in order to avoid an inevitable default.

    “If we were going to default we would have decided that many months ago,” Papandreou said. “It would be wrong for the Greek economy, it would be wrong for the European economy, it would make things worse in the end. That’s why we’re taking the pain and making these structural reforms, and we’re on target.”

    The economy will likely contract 4 percent this year, according to European Union, International Monetary Fund and government forecasts. That compares with the 1.7 percent expansion that the European Commission forecast last week for the euro region this year.

    “By the end of 2011, according to the program, if everything goes well, we’ll be seeing growth,” Papandreou said.

    Austerity Plans

    Greece imposed a series of austerity measures this year, including wage and pension cuts and higher sales taxes in exchange for a 110 billion-euro ($142 billion) rescue package from the EU and IMF. The country was shut out of the bond market after a surge in its yields made the cost of selling long-term debt prohibitive. There is no timetable for issuing debt, Papandreou said.

    Choosing to default rather than take austerity measures “could have a contagion effect in the European Union and in the end it would also be creating much more pain for the people of Greece,” Papandreou said.

    Through cutbacks “we did contain contagion,” Papandreou said. “We contained that with this very strong package and intervention.”

    Greece would like to pay borrowing costs that are “under the interest rates we’re paying right now for the IMF-EU loans,” Papandreou said.

    Fund managers are still reluctant to buy Greek debt after the country was forced to seek a bailout. The extra yield that they demand to hold Greek 10-year bonds compared with German bunds remained 909 basis points, still short of the euro-era, intraday high of 973 basis points on May 7.

    Budget Deficit

    Greece’s budget gap shrank 32.3 percent in the first eight months of the year, beating a 26.5 percent target for the period, as cuts in state wages and pensions offset slower-than- forecast increases in revenue.

    The deficit, which doesn’t include spending by state-owned institutions and companies, contracted to 14.5 billion euros from 21.4 billion euros a year earlier, according to a statement today from the Finance Ministry in Athens. The government is targeting an annual decline of 39.5 percent, the ministry said. The figures are broadly the same as preliminary data released on Sept. 10.

    “If Greece did not follow this program it would have been to the detriment of Germany and the whole euro,” Papandreou said. “The German taxpayer will be profiting from this. We’re getting loans, we’re not getting free money.”

    Second Installment

    The EU and IMF last week delivered 9 billion euros of the emergency loans to Greece, the second installment of the aid package. While they praised Greece’s efforts to cut spending and overhaul its pension system, they signaled concern that revenue collection was falling short of forecasts.

    Investors dumped Greek bonds after the country’s budget shortfall spiked to 13.6 percent of gross domestic product in 2009, the second highest in the EU, sparking speculation it may default on about 300 billion euros of national debt. Greece plans to cut the deficit to 8.1 percent of GDP this year and 7.6 percent in 2011.

    “The deficit reduction is characterized by the accumulation of interest payments in July and August 2010, which make up 40 percent of yearly interest payments as well as by a lag in revenue,” the ministry said. The Finance Ministry begins talks tomorrow with representatives of business groups on plans to offer terms to companies to pay past tax debts, according to an e-mailed statement today.

    Net ordinary budget revenue rose 3.4 percent, compared with a targeted 13.7 percent annual increase, while spending fell 7.6 percent compared with an annual 5.5 percent decrease target, according to the statement.

    To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Kruger in New York at dkruger1@bloomberg.net

    Last Updated: September 20, 2010 16:58 EDT

  170. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [173] barbara

    Tonight is a good example of why I need a well-stocked pantry. Wanted to make a steak recipe with a special sauce I know my 7YO will eat. Requires many ingredients, but I was out of one. So I bundle the baby into the car, drive to the store, bundle her into a stroller, navigate the store, back to the car, bundle baby into the seat, go home, and take the purchases and baby inside.

    If I had an extra can of tomato paste, I would not have had to make that trip. Also, my palate is not quite as scented as yours, I guess.

  171. chicagofinance says:

    Where do they sell a Blu Ray of Avatar?
    Poltroon says:
    September 20, 2010 at 7:29 am
    nomad (6) So where is the moral outrage over the calculated serial defaults of MS, Vornado, GGP and Simon?

  172. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [168] fabius,

    Doing a lot of that already, re stocking. Also aware that stored water doesn’t keep, but have to store something.

    As for Corrado’s, Morpheus mentioned that as well.

  173. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [169] fabius,

    Uh, as I learned from an email, that is “build a beAR” As in AR-15.

    Suppose it would be worthwhile if (a) I could get the parts cheaply and (2) it was legal to possess one in NJ.

  174. Confused In NJ says:

    161.still_looking says:
    September 20, 2010 at 8:41 pm
    still_looking says:
    Your comment is awaiting moderation.
    September 20, 2010 at 8:40 pm

    Lib,

    Was just warning my MIL about achilles tendon ruptures in folks taking any kind of fluoroquinolone antibiotics, ie [examples of them here], and others.

    Interesting, had a similar experience in 2000 when taking Tequin. Was mowing the lawn and felt like both legs developed terrible Charlie Horses. Mrs brought me a lawn chair and two ice packs till it subsided. A series of vascular & electrical tests showed no problem. As I recall there was a tingling in extremeties while taking the Quinolone, before this occurred. Later the FDA issued a warning about such, although at the time (2000) I was told it couldn’t be the antibiotic.

  175. chicagofinance says:

    A real kids birthday for a 4 year old.

    Drive to Hoboken and park on street.
    Take 4 year old to the Hoboken Train Terminal.
    Watch 3 trains depart and 4 trains arrive.
    Walk to Light Rail and watch a trolley depart and arrive.
    Walk down to PATH and take train to Christopher.
    Walk down Hudson and cross over to West Broadway at Frankin.
    Go here for PBJ, free Cotton Candy and scotch….
    http://www.benchmarc-restaurants.com/menu_manager/pdfs/landmarc_kids.pdf

    Buy Mickey Mouse mylar balloon.
    Take WTC PATH back to Hoboken.
    Drive home.

    Total cost: NJTP & GSP tolls, gas, PATH fares, $10 for balloon and $30 at restaurant….

    4 year cannot stop talking about it…..has already invited any friend or adult to visit again…….maybe I should have blown $750 on some pizza ice cream circle jerk instead to impress all the Colts Neck dickweeds…..

  176. Barbara says:

    177.
    Nom,
    funny, cans of tomato paste are one of the only things I do keep stocked,WAY stocked. Handy stuff. If we were neighbors you would have been set. I hear you about that baby car seat kid haulin stuff. And I also have a 7 yr old who likes very little but LOVES steak hehe.

  177. Poltroon says:

    chi (182)-

    If you can teach your kid how to drink scotch, you’ll never have to take him out of the house.

  178. Poltroon says:

    I love the feeling of knowing that every day when I wake up, the strong possibility exists that the equity markets stand a good chance of completely collapsing.

  179. Poltroon says:

    Also love knowing that two new phrases, “produce the note (mf’er)” and “fraudulent conveyance” are about to enter the modern lexicon.

  180. relo says:

    Ok, now put the toothpaste back in the tube.

    http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/tg864.htm

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