Otteau says no recovery in 2011

From the Record:

Appraiser: Home prices could drop another 6 percent in 2011

New Jersey home prices will drop another 6 percent in 2011, an East Brunswick real estate appraiser predicted Monday.

“This is not a pretty picture, and it’s not what you would prefer to hear, but it’s what’s going on out there,” Jeffrey Otteau, who tracks the housing market statewide, told a seminar for real estate agents in East Hanover.

Home values stabilized during late 2009 and early 2010, as an $8,000 federal tax credit lured first-time buyers into the market. But once the credit expired earlier this year, the number of home sales plummeted in the state and nationwide. As a result, there’s a one-year-plus supply of homes on the market in Bergen and Passaic counties, and even more elsewhere in the state. That means that at the current pace of sales, it would take more than a year to clear all the inventory

“We’re just not able to create jobs yet, so this huge supply of housing is going to stay for a while,” Otteau said. And at those inventory levels, prices typically drop by about one percent a month, he said.

The housing downturn has fallen unevenly on New Jersey, with some towns being affected more than others. Rural markets, such as Sussex County, and vacation-home markets, such as the shore, have seen larger price drops than towns within commuting distance of New York. And towns that have rail lines into New York have held their value better than other towns, Otteau said.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

153 Responses to Otteau says no recovery in 2011

  1. xroads says:

    if Otteau says %6 then it should be worse since he’s paid by the industry

  2. brewcrew says:

    What, no 6th half recovery? Well, keep the faith because that 7th half recovery we forecasted is right around the corner!

  3. Orion says:

    Otteau: No s*it, sherlock.

  4. borat obama says:

    First

  5. borat obama says:

    Last

  6. Shore Guy says:

    A forecast like this just helps reset buyers’ expectations ad makes those buyers who are paying attention more inclined to dig in their heels and refuse to buy for anything less than where they think values will be in a year.

    So, sellers either sell this year or they do, but only discounting to where prices will be.

  7. Fabius Maximus says:
  8. Bruce Springsteen says:

    We’re going down down down down…

  9. Lamar says:

    moose (108, last thread)-

    There is the law; then, there is your proposal. Unfortunately, the law says that mf’ers who can’t PRODUCE THE NOTE have no legal standing to foreclose. Period.

    William Black is not some screaming anarchist radical. He ran RTC. Why is this such a simple issue for him?

    Oh…I know! It’s because Black presumes that banks HAVE TO FOLLOW THE LAW! If they don’t have the documents, the borrower might just be getting a free house. It’s so, so unfair…but sometimes, justice isn’t fair. Bitch, ain’t it?

    “I have a proposal – triage. Let’s line up all the forclosure ‘victims’ who HAVEN’T defaulted on their payments and deal with those cases first. Bring copies of your cancelled checks. Should be able to bang that out in less than a day.

    The next day, we can look at the other 99.999% of foreclosure actions where the borrower has in fact defaulted and figure out who is entitled to the spoils after the proceeds from the Sheriff’s auction are depositied with the court.”

  10. Nomad says:

    from your previous post: I guess cash is still king. But do people buy the star ledger?

    relo says:
    October 25, 2010 at 5:52 pm
    105: Nomad,

    Moose is going to buy them all with his paper route money.

  11. Lamar says:

    Star-Ledger is broke. They nearly shut down about this time last year.

    They might as well go ahead and do it. The paper is a POS rag.

  12. Lamar says:

    We don’t need no stinking newspaper. Just fill our kids’ heads with crap, jack ’em up on R!talin and keep stuffing our faces full of HFCS. Within a generation, we’ll all be fat and diabetic- like the people in Walle-E)- and the friggin’ robots can simultaneously coddle us and take over everything.

  13. Lamar says:

    Bill Black goes off again today:

    “Bill Black, who will soon, together with Neil Barofsky, be a guaranteed shoe-in for the POTUS/VP position (both as independents, of course), was on the Ratigan show today, following on his op-ed from last week (here and here) calling for the long-overdue nationalization of Bank of America, and discussing the rampant fraud at the heart of mortgage gate. And contrary to ongoing lowball estimates from the like of JPM and Goldman, Black provides numbers about the bank liability that are simply stunning: “Credit Suisse says that by 2006 49% of all mortgage originations were liars loans. When independent folks study fraud, it is in the 80-90% fraud range. That means there were millions of acts of fraud. Those loan frauds occurred because the banks created incentive structure for the loan brokers to bring them the absolute worst of the worst loans, and to lie on the application forms… These frauds came from the banks, and they propagated through the system through a series of echo epidemics…This fraud spread through the system and that’s why we have a crisis in foreclosures. This stems from the underlying fraud by the lenders in mortgage loans to the tune of well over a million cases a year by 2005.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bill-black-foreclosuregate-calls-immediate-termination-bernanke-geithner-and-holder

  14. Lamar says:

    Anybody ever notice how whenever Bill Black surfaces and says something, really bad things usually happen soon afterwards?

  15. Nomad says:

    El – whats his face from Pimco says Greece will default in 3 years. I just wanted all of you to know.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-25/el-erian-says-greece-is-likely-to-default-on-debt-within-three-years-time.html

  16. Mr Hyde says:

    Lamar

    Bill hasnt had an “accident” yet??? He must have some serious connections.

  17. nj escapee says:

    Fabius, David Cay Johnson has been telling us this story for years. His book “Perfectly Legal” was an eye opener for me. You probably don’t want to hear it but both parties sold us down the river.

  18. stallan54 says:

    For those that don’t know what a rate of absorption means to the market… Spec builders typically wait until the absorption rate is 4-5 months to start on new projects. A relatively healthy market is considered to have about 6 months of inventory. So for every 120 available homes, 20 would have to sell the previous month for a 6 month rate of absorption. Good example: Glen Ridge / Ridgewood. Bad Bad Example: Bloomfield / Lyndhurst

    We have been playing with absorption stats and using previous month pending sales, but it looked to rosey. Closed sales better indicate the housing market, not pending. The fact that Passaic and Bergen Cty have over a year of inventory is bad news. However, parts of Essex Cty defy this 1 year rate, ie..Montclair, Glen Ridge, Cedar Grove. Passaic, Clifton, Lyndhurst, Rutherford have a lot of inventory and low sales…Bad combo If you are buying, just check the locality.

    Agree with Otteau. Prices will decline in many markets and maybe by 6% average in NJ. Remember, this is an average. Some may go up and some down much further, thus the average. Stats can be somewhat downplay better markets and upgrade bad markets.

  19. Mike says:

    if some of the sellers wake up smart tommorow prices will drop 6% overnight

  20. Fast Eddie says:

    Tony Romo, broken collar bone, out 8 to 10 weeks. Don’t like to see injuries but buh-bye Cowboys season. The Giants front four are animals! They’ve knocked out at least one quarterback every game this year.

    Oh, and for the 6% drop predicated by Otteau, that means at least 12%. Like I said, see a house you want, offer 20% less with a best and final 48 hour window. When they come back crying after rejecting your offer, tell the sellers they now have to pay for your closing costs as well.

  21. leftwing says:

    “That means there were millions of acts of fraud. Those loan frauds occurred because the banks created incentive structure for the loan brokers to bring them the absolute worst of the worst loans, and to lie on the application forms… These frauds came from the banks…This fraud spread through the system and that’s why we have a crisis in foreclosures. This stems from the underlying fraud by the lenders in mortgage loans”

    And one time, at band camp…..

    So what else are we going to blame on the banks – tornadoes in Texas, famine in Africa, racism, genderism, homophobia?

    Makes for good theater I suppose if you’re into that kind of thing.

    Me, I think I’ll ride the hysteria down on a short and load up just when it looks darkest. Highly doubt a bunch of class action jackpot seekers or AGs looking at governors mansions are going to take down the fianncial system for the benefit of a bunch of deadbeats.

    JJ, talk to me about some bonds to watch as the girls run around pulling out their hair and shrieking.

  22. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [7] fabius

    A good link and read, but very incomplete. The author gives too much weight to tax policy (again, relying on syllogic), and doesn’t give any weight to the cataclysm that was the 70’s when it came to economic policy, and the prevailing view most americans had about economics and their future. It also ignores the wholesale shift from a predominantly manufacturing economy to an information- and service-based economy. Finally, he ignores the change in psyche that I discuss below. He accurately lays much blame on globalization, but ignores the fact that such globalization was largely impossible before the 80’s. Guess that there is only so much you can do (or should do) in a blog.

    As for compensation, that is not a surprise. During the Bush-Clinton recession, and after the S and L crisis, I opined that we had one last big dance economically, and that everyone would try to grab what they could, because once the music stopped the next time (being now), anyone without a chair would be fcuked. This was largely due to the disintegration of corporate loyalty, the advent of the layoff/contractor economy, and the looming pension and SS crisis (which everyone saw back in 1993). I said this in the early 90’s when I decided to ditch banking for law.

    So, from my perspective, we made this bed back in the 70’s, and arguably, the materials for the bed were made in WWII, and the bed itself constructed in the 50s and 60s. We only got into it in the 80’s.

  23. cobbler says:

    nom [23]
    The big question is if the economy without a meaningful manufacturing component could be indefinitely sustainable. My answer is that it is not, and this is one of the key things making me extremely pessimistic about the future. The time we have left to restore the production of the tangible goods gets shorter every month, and when it runs out, and the “others” will refuse to pay for our IP or lend us any more money, the only thing left to be able to buy “stuff” will be selling off the land acre by acre… the Chinese will be happy to have it.

  24. Nomad says:

    24 Cob

    No way in hell we can survive out mfg base. Look at what china is doing to Japan w this rare earth mineral stuff.

    Like Jack Welch says “control your destiny or someone else will”.

    Cheap labor in the end will be very costly for america.

  25. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Housing Gloom Deepens

    Home sales picked up in September, but the long-term picture for housing is growing grimmer, say analysts and economists who are pushing back forecasts for a housing recovery.

    Earlier this year, the housing market appeared poised for a turnaround, three years after it peaked. Federal tax credits for buyers spurred a flurry of activity, and the economy was adding jobs. That led some economists to forecast housing would hit bottom and begin to recover this year.

    Now, some economists don’t see a recovery until late next year or early 2012. “In most markets, the tide seems to be going back out,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow.com, a real-estate site. “The momentum is easing.”

    Adding to the mounting worries is the foreclosure crisis. Some banks suspended sales of foreclosed homes late last month to address questions about the integrity of the foreclosure process. If a substantial part of the market freezes for some weeks, that could further crimp sales.

    Indeed, half of the 109 economists and housing analysts polled this month by MacroMarkets LLC, a housing-futures firm, expect home prices to bottom next year, but half don’t expect a rebound until 2012.

    The growing pessimism is attributed partly to rising inventory in many markets, a trend that doesn’t bode well for prices. The Wall Street Journal’s latest quarterly survey of housing-market conditions in 28 major metropolitan areas found inventories of unsold homes were up in 19 markets at the end of the third quarter, compared with a year ago, with especially large increases in San Diego, Los Angeles and Sacramento.

    “We’ll see some additional price declines,” said David Berson, chief economist at PMI Group Inc., a mortgage-insurance company in Walnut Creek, Calif. “The gains we’ve seen can’t be sustained given the current supply situation.”

  26. Nomad says:

    As if we don’t have enough on our plate: Iran begins loading nuclear…

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/27/world/middleeast/27nuke.html?_r=1&hp

  27. Lamar says:

    mike (20)-

    Sadly, stupid is irreversible…and forever.

  28. Lamar says:

    wing (22)-

    The financial system won’t be brought down by a bunch of state AGs. It’ll be brought down by mobs of Joe6s, when they ultimately realize that a spot of the old ultra-violence feels soooo nice and warm.

    Why did the Greeks burn up banks with people inside? Because it felt good. If you can’t get justice, watching shit burn is a sort of cosmic methad0ne.

  29. Lamar says:

    plume (23)-

    I still put the start date at 1913.

  30. Lamar says:

    Run what began in 1913, then put a period on that sentence in 2013.

    There’s your American Century…up in smoke, mf’er.

  31. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    This will do wonders for housing:)

    Oct. 25, 2010, 10:10 a.m. EDT

    Mortgage-interest tax break may face ax
    Bipartisan deficit-cutting panel puts deduction on table

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-interest-tax-break-faces-ax-report-2010-10-25

  32. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    My advice to Bill Black is to stay out of hot tubs.

  33. dblko says:

    After years of reading this blog we actually bought a house last month. Anyways, turns out the seller forgot to tell us about the shower problem. Also the home inspector didn’t spot it. A week or so after moving in we found that the upstairs shower leaks through the tiles when on sprays the water against the inside of the glass, some thing the kids enjoyed doing. Noticed it when it suddenly start raining down from the living room ceiling.

    Question: this turns out to be pretty expensive to fix, need to rebuild the shower underflooring. Any chance to get help paying for it, by for example: former owner, inspectors insurance, my home owner insurance?

    Cheers

  34. Nomad says:

    #34 – send certified letter to sellers asking if shower ever leaked – you can also ask your homeowners insurance company to run a claims history to see what type of claims the previous owner had. Shower pan should be several thousand – ask about putting in a fiberglass base – not as pretty as a tile pan but less expensive and lasts forever. Lead floor underneath the tile decomposes over time and thus, the leak.

    Double check – if a simple space between glass and tile where water gets through, a simple gasket should do the trick and that is $20 or so.

  35. jamil says:

    Anybody want a job at the Treasury Department’s Office of Financial Stability ?
    This is the most transparent administration in history..Somehow I think NYT or NPR is not going to highlight this..

    ““immediate need a FOIA Analyst to support a very high-profile government customer in Washington D.C. …
    Use of FOIA/PA exemptions to withhold information from release to the public
    Clearance Requirements: Minimum Active Secret Clearance
    Qualifications: Bachelor’s Degree
    ””

    http://tbe.taleo.net/NA2/ats/careers/requisition.jsp?org=PHACIL&cws=1&rid=173&source=Indeed

  36. Yikes says:

    dblko says:
    October 26, 2010 at 7:43 am

    After years of reading this blog we actually bought a house last month. Anyways, turns out the seller forgot to tell us about the shower problem. Also the home inspector didn’t spot it. A week or so after moving in we found that the upstairs shower leaks through the tiles when on sprays the water against the inside of the glass, some thing the kids enjoyed doing. Noticed it when it suddenly start raining down from the living room ceiling.

    Hope you’re kidding. That’s awful news.
    Sounds like it’s very expensive.

  37. Lamar says:

    dblko (34)-

    IMO, that’s an undisclosed major defect. Go after the homeowner, inspector, everyone on the other side. I bet you get enough to fix it. If not, sue them all.

  38. Nomad says:

    Note the likely small print on your inspector’s report that says they are on the hook for screw ups only up to the price paid for the inspection. Usually they let you know about this after you have given them the check and the report comes back with it disclosed on the bottom – scumbags.

    House inspector = fox guarding henhouse. I found a $10k issue that the inspector missed. Most are worthless and if you used one that the realtor suggested … caveat emptor

    Even if you win in court, you still have to collect. perhaps some on this board can give you names of good contractors.

  39. Mike says:

    dblko No. 34 When you say the water is sprayed inside the glass, meaning the glass shower doors or the window glass? Dissident No. 32 That might cause a riot

  40. Lamar says:

    Nomad (39)-

    The top home inspectors in NJ left the business years ago.

  41. chicagofinance says:

    Happiness on the Jersey Shore is all about avoiding “grenades” (ugly women), according to Mike “The Situation” Sorrentino’s lifestyle guide, “Here’s the Situation.” The campy Gotham Books paperback features illustrations on proper ab maintenance and a “one-night stand checklist” which includes such tips as, “The best sex is often with a grenade — because she’s so grateful.” His wisdom on shaving include, “Chicks do dig guys with shaved legs . . . maybe they’re into the Michael Phelps look.” The Sitch also claims that to avoid catching colds, “Before any chick gets into my bed I make her slide into a 200-degree Jacuzzi to sterilize any microbial bacteria that might endanger my health.” There’s even a prayer to be recited by lotharios in training: “God grant me the stamina to satisfy hot chicks, the courage to deny grenades, and the wisdom to know the difference.” The book hits stores Nov. 2.

  42. dan says:

    I’m curious about how they’d actually implement the mortgage tax deduction. Will they just get rid of it for everyone or more likely try the gimmick of saying if you buy a house by this time, you get it. We do like the one trick ponies.

  43. chicagofinance says:

    Lamar says:
    October 26, 2010 at 8:35 am
    Nomad (39)-
    The top home inspectors in NJ left the business years ago.

    Exception:
    http://www.afullhouseinspection.com/

  44. Barbara says:

    yeap, I don’t even use inspectors. Learned that lesson. I go into any house under the assumption that 20k will have to be ponied up after closing to get systems working correctly, and yeah – I figure that into an offer. Most inspectors kick the tires, point out the obvious. Just assume that the gutters are a mess, you’ve got some tuning up to do on the porch and the roof is on its last leg. You should let the water run from every faucet for 5 minutes. And run those furnaces, I don’t care of its July. Don’t be impressed with a heating company’s recent tune up report either, I closed on an inspected house only to have the furnace leaking 2 inches of water into the 2nd floor a few weeks later. Previous owners used a stop gap fix. We got to it before any serious damage but there was a real risk to life. We should have sued seller and inspector.

  45. Mike says:

    Barbara No. 46 Just watch for the underground oil tanks and be sure there’s no leaks

  46. dblko says:

    Unfortunately not kidding about the shower leak. It has some fancy tiled seat inside it, I figured it leaks when water is spraid on the seat, or running down on it from inside the (cheapo looking) glass wall (not the door). Owner has already left the country ( no kidding). Figure we just pony up the 10k and combine the work with some bathroom remodel, thinking of extending it to some fancy steam or sauna spa thing.

  47. NJGator says:

    Stu and I are celebrating 7 years of wedded bliss today. We haven’t killed each other yet. I’d call us a success.

  48. Pat says:

    Could be a simple leak. Just sayin’, if the house was unoccupied for a while before you moved in, all kinds of sheet can happen and the seller may be innocent.

    Is there a knocking after you flush that you can hear from wall behind toilet?

    ….can you open up the access to the main faucet in the shower from a closet behind the bathroom?

  49. Pat says:

    gator, seven was one of the hardest for me because of hearing about the seven-year itch thing all my life. Seven was more worrisome than ten.

    Now, we just worry about the old cat. He’s nearly twelve and was born on the day we met.

    We’re trying to make it as far as he does.

  50. #52 – He’s nearly twelve and was born on the day we met.

    I had a cat that made it to 25. Not sure if that helps….

  51. leftwing says:

    “The financial system won’t be brought down by a bunch of state AGs. It’ll be brought down by mobs of Joe6s, when they ultimately realize that a spot of the old ultra-violence feels soooo nice and warm.”

    Clot, right action, wrong direction.

    While most revolutions are bottom up, I think we’re positioning ourselves for the hundred year storm of a top down revolution.

    J6P (the working class) can cut either way and their disdain for the wealth and pretention of the controlling class is only matched by their disgust for the dependency class. J6P doesn’t have real animosity toward the professional class.

    Usually it is the dependency class that ignites the flame which moves upward to encompass the workers and they collectively devour the professional and controlling classes, whose interests are usually aligned.

    This time, the professional class today is more closely aligned with J6P. The controlling class is aligned with the dependency class and is their their enabler. There is a deep wedge between the professional class and the controlling class now that usually doesn’t exist.

    When the workers and professionals replace the controlling class and rise up against the underclasses things get ugly on historical proportions and, yes, there flames. Lots of them.

    The kindling and timber are set but it is 1933, not 1917.

    All we need now is a gifted politician with national service who has been marginalized by the current powers that be who themselves are emasculated. Give this person a toehold on the national stage and mix in some inflation and a currency collapse and viola!

    Top down revolution, mark your calendars.

    Anyone care to handicap who the gifted outsider may be this time?

  52. Lamar says:

    gator (50)-

    You should whack him now, while he’s not expecting it.

    He also can’t run. :)

  53. Lamar says:

    left (54)-

    Agreed. In fact, J6P aspires to upward mobility (or at least, doesn’t begrudge the good fortune of others).

    However, J6P is learning to hate the robber/bankster/fraudster class.

    “J6P doesn’t have real animosity toward the professional class.”

  54. Lamar says:

    The giant Ponzi is beginning to show wear at the seams.

    “If this is not some nasty and quite early April Fool’s joke, this is very, very bad news for JPMorgan:

    BN CFTC CHILTON MAKES STATEMENT ON SILVER MARKET
    BN * SILVER PRICES SUBJECT TO “FRAUDULENT” INFLUENCES, CHILTON SAY
    BN *”REPEATED ATTEMPTS” MADE TO INFLUENCE SILVER MARKET, CHILTON
    BN *SILVER MANIPULATION SHOULD BE PROSECUTED, CHILTON SAYS”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cftcs-chilton-admits-silver-market-subject-fraudulent-influences-says-manipulation-should-be

  55. Nomad says:

    NJ Gator – some anniversary trivia

    if a man is in the woods talking, and his wife isn’t there to hear him, is he still wrong?

    Happy 7th.

  56. Painhrtz says:

    Clot 41 there is a volume 2 apparently, If i have children they are getting home schooled

  57. Lamar says:

    pain (59)-

    At least we can take solace in the fact that public union parasites will do all the heavy lifting for us in the coming revolution.

  58. scribe says:

    Was this posted yet from Bloomberg Businessweek?

    Bloomberg radio was just talking about this guy who hadn’t paid since 2002.

    Mortgage Mess: Shredding the Dream
    The foreclosure crisis isn’t just about lost documents. It’s about trust—and a clash over who gets stuck with $1.1 trillion in losses

    Joseph Lents hasn’t paid his mortgage
    By Peter Coy, Paul M. Barrett and Chad Terhune

    October 25, 2010
    Who Owns Your House?

    In 2002, a Boca Raton (Fla.) accountant named Joseph Lents was accused of securities law violations by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Lents, who was chief executive officer of a now-defunct voice-recognition software company, had sold shares in the publicly traded company without filing the proper forms. Facing a little over $100,000 in fines and fees, and with his assets frozen by the SEC, Lents stopped making payments on his $1.5 million mortgage.

    The loan servicer, Washington Mutual, tried to foreclose on his home in 2003 but was never able to produce Lents’ promissory note, so the state circuit court for Palm Beach County dismissed the case. Next, the buyer of the loan, DLJ Mortgage Capital, stepped in with another foreclosure proceeding. DLJ claimed to have lost the promissory note in interoffice mail. Lents was dubious: “When you say you lose a $1.5 million negotiable instrument—that doesn’t happen.” DLJ claimed that its word was as good as paper. But at least in Palm Beach County, paper still rules. If his mortgage holder couldn’t prove it held his mortgage, it couldn’t foreclose.

    Eight years after defaulting, Lents still hasn’t made a payment or been forced out of his house. DLJ, whose parent, Credit Suisse, declined to comment for this story, still hasn’t proved its ownership to the satisfaction of the court. Lents’ debt has grown to about $2.5 million, including unpaid taxes, interest, and penalties. As the stalemate grinds on, Lents has the comfort of knowing he’s no longer alone. When he began demanding to see the I.O.U., he says, “I was looked upon like I had leprosy. Now, I have probably 20 to 30 people a month come to me” asking for advice. Lents is irked when people accuse him of exploiting a loophole. “It’s not a loophole,” he says. “It’s the law.”

    The Lents Defense, as it might be called, doesn’t work everywhere. Thousands of Floridians have lost their homes in lightning-fast “rocket dockets.” In 27 other states, judges don’t even review foreclosures, making it harder for homeowners to fight back. Now, though, allegations of carelessness and outright fraud in foreclosures has become so widespread that attorneys general in all 50 states are investigating. So are the feds.

    http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_44/b4201076208349.htm

  59. #58 – His wrongness is certain, all that varies is the environment his wrongness travels in.

  60. leftwing says:

    Yes, Clot, but it is the top of that pyramid where J6P directs his ire, toward the controlling class.

    Your local banker, doctor, business owner, and (whew!) real estate broker are safe this time.

    Dimon and the current slate of politicos are toast, which creates the vacuum for a Joe6 and professional coalition to install ‘one of their own’. The benficiaries of the prior largesse (unions, welfare program recipients, recipients of mortgage forgiveness) are labelled parasites and and the newly arrived are different and ‘auslanders’ anyway…

    Funny thing, class warfare, inflammatory language, and hatred are not GPS guided missiles, they are pit bulls. And once released they have no ‘fail safes’ to prevent them from turning on their owners. Pulling the lawn chair up and watching the Chosen One and his crowd (or their successors) be devoured by the ‘bankster/fraudster/robber’ beast they’ve let loose will be the one redeeming event of this impending cycle of violence.

    Top down revolution.

  61. leftwing says:

    “At least we can take solace in the fact that public union parasites will do all the heavy lifting for us in the coming revolution”

    Au contraire..

    Parasites don’t lift, they are assimilated or eliminated.

    Those ‘parasitic’ law enforcement officers with the bloodsucking pensions cannot be trusted, they are old regime.

    Remember, the Schutzstaffel started as a personal protection force that made existing police forces, including their own SA, quickly ‘irrelevant’. See Rohm Putsch.

    The script is there guys, and we are in Act 1 Scene 2 viewing the setting.

  62. Hey, I just hopped over to your site via Stumbleupon. Not somthing I would normally read, but I liked your thoughts none the less. Thanks for making something worth reading.

  63. Shore Guy says:

    If congress eliminates the tax decuction for mortgage interest payments, we are well on our way to a flat tax, for this is the m@n thing people point to when fighting the flat tax.

  64. Mr Hyde says:

    Leftwing 64

    the n@zis weren’t the first or most brutal to follow that script, just the most well known amongst the general public

  65. Shore Guy says:

    Happy 7th. I have a kinda vague memory of 7.

  66. Shore Guy says:

    Bottom line, unless we concurrently bring the budget into balance and eliminate our need for foreign energy supplies (excluding Canada), in 20 years, we will find ourselves in the position that the UK and France currently find themselves. At that point, a union between Aus, NZ, US, Canada (perhaps, sans Quebec), and the UK may be the only thing that will allow us to maintain reasonable clout and security in the really-new world order.

    What is that, a population of about 400mm?

  67. Unexpected HEHEHE says:

    Flat or vat

  68. Painhrtz says:

    Clot have to agree with Left on this on, the Union Hucksters will either assimilate to the new normal or get ground up. they”l be like the buregouis from the Soviet revolution. Hopefully there will gulags for them and the politicians

  69. onthebrink says:

    #34 Dblko: You may also want to check the underfloor for mold. We had a similar problem in the last house we rented – owner eventually fixed the leak, but neglected to fix the mold issue. I’m glad we didn’t buy the house.

  70. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Home Prices Decline Broadly in August
    “The latest report(.pdf) on home prices coming from the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index confirms what has been known for some time now – in the absence of government largess in the form of $8,000 tax credits, home values are again dropping, down 0.2% from June to July and, more recently, down 0.3% from July to August.”

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/232299-home-prices-decline-broadly-in-august?source=dashboard_macro-view

  71. SG says:

    Speculators Gamble on Housing . . . Again

    There are plenty of stories to indicate that this is happening again — that private investors and hedge funds are betting that the bottom is near in the housing market, and are buying up foreclosed and otherwise distressed properties, especially houses, with the idea of selling them in two or three years. The investors are hoping that the housing market will be operating in a more orderly fashion by then, so that the properties purchased now at distressed prices can be resold at higher prices.

    As before, this bit of speculation may not work. The traditional housing market indicators, such as inventory levels, point to a further decline in the coming years. In addition to the active inventory, there is an enormous shadow inventory of houses whose owners want to sell now, but will not be able to sell until they pay down the mortgage further (or prices go up). This shadow inventory is probably between 1 in 7 and 1 in 4 houses, but whatever its actual size, it is much larger than the active inventory of houses, and puts downward pressure on prices. Specifically, any increase in prices will put many houses on the market all at once, and if prices hold steady, these houses will come onto the market gradually as owners’ financial positions improve.

  72. SG says:

    NYT’s Krugman: Shadows And Fog

    If servicers really wanted to get homes sold and the issue resolved, they’d be doing short sales: letting the current owners sell the homes for whatever they can get, hand the proceeds over, and call it quits. And there are a lot of short sales out there — but there are also many cases in which short sales are being refused, and foreclosures take place instead.

    The official reason for aversion to short sales is the potential for fraud: the homeowner sells the house cheap to his cousin, or whatever. But how hard is it to police that fraud, at least sufficiently to avoid gross abuses? Remember, a house sold somewhat too cheaply is still a better deal for the lender than a house not sold at all.

    An alternative explanation for the preference for foreclosure and the willingness to sit on foreclosed homes for long periods of time is that it’s a game of extend and pretend: a short sale means that lenders have to acknowledge their losses, while an empty foreclosed home can be kept on the books at an unrealistic value.

    If this is the right way to look at the situation, then the paperwork crisis presents an opportunity to help fix a major market failure — an opportunity to prod lenders into either short sales or workouts with homeowners, and to stop the socially harmful buildup of shadow inventory.

    And it’s an opportunity that is, as usual, going to waste.

  73. Wag says:

    Gates (50) – We share a anniversary, yours marital mine, birth. Happy seventh.

  74. SG says:

    SHADOW ACCOUNTING: Did BofA Make $3B or Lose $7B?

    Which brings me to the question posed by the title of this article. BOA reported a $3 billion profit, but it also reported a $10 billion charge (a “one time” charge allowed under the rules of accounting). At the end of the quarter they had $7 billion less than they had before by even the current stupid accounting standards that allow management to value their own assets. Yet it is accepted that even though they have already admitted that they will continue to have more of these “one-time” charges, they should still be viewed as having made $3 billion and their stock is valued as though it was $12 billion per year. By the way, these “one-time” charges are gradual admissions seeping into the reports of the trillions of dollars Wall Street stands to lose as investors and borrowers start connecting the dots and collecting money back from a pot of ill-gotten gains.

    So their stock is valued as though they were making $12 Billion even though the reality is that they will lose at least $50 billion, at a minimum over the current year, and it could be a multiple of that figure. The fact that they were willing to sponsor perjury in affidavits, misrepresentations by attorneys, and outright fraud on the courts is not yet taken into account in discounting their prospects as a viable institution. Instead, because we are led by people who are getting information from Wall Street and accepting it at face value, the myth is that if we tell the truth, another bailout will be required.

  75. still_looking says:

    Grim,

    Second unannounced, no “call before showing up” visit from the wredna suka.

    Mr. sl told her she “better not be here when Mrs. sl gets home.” Commented on our foyer rug being ‘dirty.’ Said some other unsavory comments to him…

    I need gates. Badly.

    sl

  76. still_looking says:

    Congratulations, Stu and Gator!

    Have a great anniversary!!

    sl

  77. Outofstater says:

    #41 And the charming teacher who was allegedly talking about having to F someone in the hall to get fired teaches K-5 and makes $99983/year. Nice. Just the kind of person I’d like my child to have as a teacher.

  78. leftwing says:

    Hyde

    My point exactly. Everyone is waiting for the crowds with the pitchforks to come running up the hill while the script is well written for those on the hill to knock a few guys off the summit and then flood the valley.

    I do like the 1933 version though, not only because it is the most well known and recent but also because of the parallels to today.

    Socially, the disaffected middle classes, overtones of subjugating the nation to supra-national entities like Versailles, and the suppression and merging of competing political views that ultimately lead to a single party system. Even the nuances are the same as rampant homosexuality among the ruling classes back then, including the military, clashed with middle class norms and led the populace to overlook their ‘removal’.

    Economically, the Great Depression lead to massive job losses and loss of faith in established institutions. Hyperinflation wiped out the rest and kicked the stool out from under established institutions.

    Politically, you couldn’t better script the villain of ’33 with the opportunity that exists today. All we are awaiting is our gifted orator who has been published, marginalized by the current regime, and gets a national stage. I don’t have enough fingers and toes to count the qualified persons that fit that bill today particularly since in this age getting a national stage does not require national political office.

    Act 1, Scene 2? Hell, we’re approaching intermission after which the plot starts to really unfold, quickly. Look for the villain to be identified and the economic powder keg to explode.

    Top down revolution.

  79. Nicholas says:

    I celebrated my 11th wedding aniversary this year. Congratulations to you and your seventh. I don’t recall the seven year itch being anything specific or of importance.

  80. Lamar says:

    Thank God my kids’ teachers aren’t as aggressive as the ones in that Teachers Gone Wild video. They’re simply lazy and incompetent.

    I’m beginning to think you can help your kid past that. Daughter graduates HS this year, and they haven’t ruined her.

  81. Lamar says:

    left (81)-

    You scenario is highly plausible.

    However it plays out, it’s all good. I just want to shoot some bad guys.

  82. chicagofinance says:

    Where are the Hunt Brothers when you need them?

    57.Lamar says:
    October 26, 2010 at 10:02 am
    The giant Ponzi is beginning to show wear at the seams.

    “If this is not some nasty and quite early April Fool’s joke, this is very, very bad news for JPMorgan:

    BN CFTC CHILTON MAKES STATEMENT ON SILVER MARKET
    BN * SILVER PRICES SUBJECT TO “FRAUDULENT” INFLUENCES, CHILTON SAY
    BN *”REPEATED ATTEMPTS” MADE TO INFLUENCE SILVER MARKET, CHILTON
    BN *SILVER MANIPULATION SHOULD BE PROSECUTED, CHILTON SAYS”

  83. leftwing says:

    Clot

    In the casting call for the remake of the 1930s classic we have you slotted as Rohm himself. Early adopter and true believer, he formed the million man SA militia from grassroots by caching and handing out arms to fellow believers (he was known as the Machine Gun King of Bavaria). The strength of his organization, which New Leader deftly uses, keeps the existing and not yet politically subsumed military in line. He does have a preference for low level street brawls and the breaking of political parties on the other side of the spectrum by heavy handed violence, which causes problems for New Leader and does not endear you to him. His beliefs are so deeply held that he cannot accept New Leader’s political compromises in other areas and he feels the revolution is not advancing quickly enough. Loyalty is never the true believer’s strongpoint but is fatal in his case. Criticism coming from a man that controls one million SA leads New Leader to assasinate you, which you proudly wear as a badge of honor.

    He does switch hit, are you adverse to a little man on man action in this century’s remake?

  84. Mr Hyde says:

    Left 81

    You have a solid argument there. But to wargame the situation a bit, there is potential for clots concept as well, as a sort of subplot if you will. A savvy and adept leader could manipulate the situation so that the union bourgeois and the general proletariat throw themselves against the the gears of the machine in order to keep the machine busy while the leader solidifies a base amongst the professional class with a dash of the elite and non-union bourgeois thrown in for good measure. Whether the machine assimilates the encroaching masses or eliminates them would be irrelevant to a well laid plan by such a leader, the main purpose would be to distract the machine and provide cover. While such an event would be a long shot it is not without historical precedent.

    Any real steps into your analogy of Act II virtually guarantees bloodshed from a historical perspective. The question would be, is it more along the lines of the Russian secret police disappearing dissidents or open conflict as seen in the Chechen regions. The US in somewhat unique in our level or public armament. There are enough private weapons of high enough grade to overwhelm government forces if the people were pushed to far. The flip side of that is the master of propaganda by the machine may be capable of keeping the masses catatonic.

  85. Mr Hyde says:

    Leftwing 86

    There is another way out of that. be a Genghis Khan or a Roman legionnaire. So absolutely brutal yet coldly calculating in the assaults that few real attacks are needed except for the primary opposition strong holds. Once your dominance is asserted due to the mere thought of your brutality you promptly indoctrinate your core storm troopers to lay waste to New leader and his core should you ever fall, whether it be by his hand or another. Covertly infiltrate the New leaders core with a number of your most dedicated troopers to act as your permanent dead man switch.

  86. NJCoast says:

    Congrats to Stu and Gator on your 7th wedding anniversary.
    From a child bride celebrating her 30th this year.

  87. A.West says:

    Lamar,
    In 1913, we saw the initiation of both the federal income tax, and the Federal Reserve.
    Which one do you think was the bigger disaster?

  88. Mr Hyde says:

    Left 81

    I don’t have enough fingers and toes to count the qualified persons that fit that bill today particularly since in this age getting a national stage does not require national political office.

    a few examples perhaps??????

  89. Mr Hyde says:

    This stuff is better then any TV script or blockbuster movie

    Assured said more than 83 percent of 1,306 defaulted loans examined in one of the transactions, ACE’s Home Equity Loan Trust, Series 2007-SL2, breached Deutsche Bank’s representations and warranties. In the second deal, Home Equity Loan Trust, Series 2007-SL3, 86 percent of the 1,774 loans breached the agreements, Assured said.

    http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ada1QmQYr_BI

  90. Anon E. Moose says:

    sl [78];

    Unexpected arrivals need not all be unpleasant (one hopes).

    -Moose

  91. Anon E. Moose says:

    Hyde [92];

    That’s the rub, moreso than robo-signers. Mostly because the counterparties (PIMpCO, et al.) have the financial wherewithal to fight back against the banksters in court; unlike Harry and Hilda Howmuchamonth who don’t have two nickels to rub together (otherwise they’d be making their stinking house payment).

  92. chicagofinance says:

    The end is nigh….

    FRONT PAGE WSJ
    PAGE ONE
    OCTOBER 26, 2010
    Ghosts Aren’t Nearly as Frightening as These Characters
    Jersey Shore’s Snooki, ‘DJ Pauly D’ Top Costumes; ‘I Got a Distinct Look’

    By ELIZABETH HOLMES
    What’s the scariest part of Halloween this year?

    “Jersey Shore” costumes are topping many retailers’ lists as the most popular outfit of the season.

    It’s the first Halloween since the notorious MTV reality show featuring a pack of raucous Italian-American 20-somethings began airing last December. Costumes based on Snooki’s poofy hair and “The Situation’s” rippled abs have been flying off store shelves.

    “We’ve been going back to the vendors and reordering as much as we possibly can,” says Kym Sarkos, vice president of merchandise for Spirit Halloween, a division of Spencer Gifts LLC, which predicts the costumes will be the top-selling get-up at more than 870 temporary Halloween stores this year.

    Jersey Shore characters surpassed Lady Gaga to become the No. 1 Halloween costume chosen by young adults ages 18 to 24, according to a poll of 6,000 people by Brand Keys, a New York brand consultant. Other top sellers this year: Avatar characters, President Barack Obama, Iron Man and Buzz Lightyear.

    MTV Networks, seeing the burgeoning potential of the adult Halloween costume market, launched its first reality-show costume line this year for Jersey Shore. Executives say they tried to reproduce the characters as accurately as possible.

    “I got, like, a very distinct look,” says Paul “DJ Pauly D” DelVecchio about the authenticity of the official Pauly D lacquered and sprayed hairpiece.

    Mr. DelVecchio said he didn’t care if people were buying the costumes to make fun of him. “Either good or bad, if you’re talking about me, you’re still talking about me,” he said. “It’s, like, free promotion.”

    Retailers who are selling out of the official Pauly D and Snooki wigs and other authorized wear are coming up with makeshift Jersey Halloween packages.

    In a pinch, they’re finding that they can put together a pretty good Snooki kit with skin bronzer, furry pink slippers, and one of last year’s unsold Amy Winehouse wigs, imitating the troubled singer’s beehive do.

    Jersey Shore-themed Halloween parties have swept college campuses and young adult festivities. Party invitations often call for hair gel, spray tans and bikinis. Italian food, spiked punch and temporary tattoos are suggested by several websites advising viewers how to host a Jersey Shore party.

    For Jennie Masterson, a stay-at-home mother of four from Springfield, Mo., watching Jersey Shore makes her envious of the freedom and fun the participants have. “I really didn’t party that much. I was always the responsible one,” says Ms. Masterson, 32. “I sometimes wish I could go back and live it up more.”

    She hasn’t worn a costume in nine years but is dressing up as Snooki this Halloween.

    Elizabeth Wilson, a 31-year-old attorney who lives in Corsicana, Texas, outside Dallas, is a self-described “J. Crew, Marc Jacobs, Burberry girl.” But she’s looking forward to donning a little dress and big hoop earrings for a night. “It’s just an escape,” she says.

    Reality show characters have long been costume fodder for fans. Last year, mother of eight Kate Gosselin inspired a spate of unauthorized spiky wigs, while reality show star and rapper Flavor Flav spawned a rash of unofficial rapper kits.

    With Jersey Shore, MTV decided to do its own line as a way to eke out more revenue from the thriving franchise. And no wonder. As Halloween becomes an increasingly big holiday, the adult costume market has exploded. It is projected to reach almost $1 billion this season, surpassing expectations for the children’s market of $800 million, according to the National Retail Federation.

    In an effort to make the Jersey Shore costumes as realistic as possible, Viacom Inc. executives scrutinized the length of Nicole “Snooki” Polizzi’s skirt—very short—and the height of her poof wig—very high—to ensure the utmost accuracy. The Snooki costume includes a metallic leopard-print dress that is barely longer than a shirt.

    “When you look at what Snooki wears on the show, sometimes there are some wardrobe malfunctions because of how short she likes her dresses,” says Sherice Torres, senior vice president for MTV Networks Global Home Entertainment and Adult Brand Licensing. “We needed the costume to be representative.”

    Jersey Shore, which initially drew criticism for what some called its disparaging depiction of Italian Americans, nevertheless became a hit, drawing 4.8 million viewers for its first season finale in January. The big numbers throughout the season, as well as the show’s tenor, made licensing worthwhile, Ms. Torres said.

    MTV teamed up with Rubie’s Costume Co., based in Richmond Hill, N.Y. and decided to make costumes for three of the show’s eight cast members: Ms. Polizzi, Michael “The Situation” Sorrentino and Mr. DelVecchio.

    They each had “standout characteristics,” Ms. Torres said.

    Indeed, for the muscular male characters, Rubie’s had a leg up: It holds a worldwide patent for vacuum-formed muscle chests. The company generally uses the muscles for its Superman and Batman costumes. For Mr. Sorrentino, the costume features flesh-colored foam abs with a shirt on top so wearers can imitate Mr. Sorrentino’s trademark abdominal flash.

    Rubie’s biggest challenge was copying Mr. DelVecchio’s combed-up hair, which he himself spends as long as 25 minutes styling. Originally, MTV asked for a molded hairpiece so that it would perfectly hold its shape.

    But the prototype “looked too much like a cartoon character,” Ms. Torres said. Four or five iterations later, including different combinations of hairspray and lacquer, Rubie’s achieved the proper stand-up aesthetic.

    The cast members didn’t have direct approval on the costume designs, Ms. Torres said, but they receive an undisclosed cut of anything that uses their likeness.

    For the record, Snooki herself has said she plans to dress up as her favorite food: a pickle.

    Not everybody is a fan of the Jersey Shore phenomenon.

    Scott Morris, president of Morris Costumes, one of the nation’s largest distributors of Halloween costumes, said the Jersey Shore costumes he had in stock are sold out.

    But Mr. Morris, the 51-year-old son of a circus ringmaster who considers himself something of a costume connoisseur, said he wasn’t impressed with Jersey Shore getup, the characters, or reality television in general.

    “You ask yourself, ‘Why is any of that stuff popular?'” he said.

    Write to Elizabeth Holmes at elizabeth.holmes@wsj.com

  93. Painhrtz says:

    A West not answer for clot but both are equally damaging. The fedral reserve is the machine and the income tax the fuel.

    The federal reserve took the ability to monetize or currencies value out of the hands of the people. that being our mornic representatives, who have debased our currency to the point of toilet paper.

    The income tax though opened up the full ability to allow the US government to use the populace as “collateral” through tax receipts. It has enabled the federal government to balloon debts, while turning each working citizen into a criminal should they so choose not to participate in one of the greatest robberies perpatrated on a populace.

    In other words both suck

  94. George Soros says:

    Otteau is a pumper and dumper. My calculation is 60% decline in 2010. He is hiding the the truth.

  95. New in NJ says:

    A bit off topic, but I found this article that discusses the concept of a corporation’s rights as a natural person under the 14th Amendment, and how the whole thing is a huge mistake based on a corrupted law clerk’s summary.

    A little long but worth the time to read:

    http://www.alternet.org/books/148608/the_supreme_court_sold_out_our_democracy_–_how_to_fight_the_corporate_takeover_of_our_elections/?page=entire

  96. still_looking says:

    Anon, 93

    Thank You !!! They are beautiful!!!

    I sent the picture to grim to forward to you.

    We hope to host another GTG fairly soon and would be thrilled to see you guys there.

    sl

  97. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [78] Still

    Or a restraining order. Nothing gets a person’s attention so much as a personally-served document commanding one’s appearance in court.

  98. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [78] still, redux

    Would be glad to help with that, BTW.

  99. leftwing says:

    Hyde

    We have to wait for the economic implosion to see who steps forward from the crowd of telegenic, articulate candidates in media and politics openly opposing of the current environment and exhibits sociopathic tendencies.

    If I were handicapping I would stay away from the established, older names particularly ones that are mostly if not all media and look more to some of the younger Members, Governors, or even better candidates for these positions.

    Remember, these guys don’t have fangs. The original version was a soldier with some decoration, no current resume, and had at his disposal a minor but not overly fringe political group NSDAP.

    Turn the heat up economically, apply some heavy handedness by the Administration in power, and your run of the mill Tea Party gathering could end the same way as the Beer Hall Putsch, propelling that person.

    Turn up the heat socially and politically, and a brash young governor that runs with a successful challenge to the health care mandate that is stuffed at the Supremes but won’t stand down can likewise be martyred.

    What happens when a State that has a net positive transfer payment to the Feds tells the Feds to, in Caprio’s memorable words yesterday, ‘shove it’ and stops all transfers in and out? Not Rhode Island but a large State of consequence, particularly Southern Bible Belt so that the standoff is not just economic but also social? What are the Feds going to do – roll in tanks and the National Guard? If so, Beer Hall Putsch II.

    The difference between now and other times in our recent history with turmoil (the 60s maybe with integration) is that the ground is now fertile for such a person due to the exact economic and social fragmentation existing currently and the unique alignment of social classes this time around.

    The kindling and tinder are set. The flame is harder to identify. Who would have thought the assasination of a minor royal in an outer province of a once mighty but then at best second rate power would have triggered a conflict with 37 million dead?

  100. Libtard says:

    Thanks for all of the kind words everyone.

  101. Mr Hyde says:

    Left

    your optimism at the future of the US is downright glaring its so upbeat! On the other hand AZ looks to be moving right along in that direction.

    ;)

  102. Lamar says:

    west (90)-

    The Fed, by a mile. The idea of paying federal taxes is neither onerous nor out of place in the modern world. However, the idea of a criminal cabal of bankers that can self-deal, promote asset bubbles and bugger the currency at will is not something that should be tolerated by any civil society.

  103. Lamar says:

    lib (103)-

    Kind words? I told your wife to whack you while you’re still unable to run away. :)

  104. Shore Guy says:

    Kind words? If I recall correctly, all the kind words were for Gator.

  105. Zack says:

    My prediction for the markets,
    Come November,the FED will announce a massive QE (as long as it takes upto 5 Trillion$).
    This will knock the cover off for stocks and commodities. We will see 12k on the Dow by end of the year. We will see 14K on the Dow by summer of 2011
    The Dollar will tank obviously.
    Except for housing and related stocks, everything else will sky rocket.
    Bernanke is the real deal. Don’t mess with him. He is determined to bubble our way out, which is the only way out. The other road leads to stagnaton and rot.
    He will worry about the dollar at a later point.

  106. Libtard says:

    I rescind my prior gratitude and replace it with a hardy F-U! Is that better?

    And Poon…I’ve gotten quite adept at the use of crutches. I get my cast off tomorrow anyway, so any well wishes that might have inadvertently been sent in my direction, will pale in comparison to what the doc has to say tomorrow. Either I start PT tomorrow or in another two weeks! I pray to the god of Jamil, tomorrow please, pretty please!

  107. cobbler says:

    …Jones said more purchases of Treasuries by the central bank may perpetuate a bubble in bonds. Failure to loosen the currency peg will perpetuate a situation where China recycles its trade surpluses into Treasuries, encouraging the U.S. government to borrow more, he wrote.

    “If we maintain the status quo, what will be the probable outcome a decade from now? Look no further than Greece for the answer,” Jones said. “The U.S. could achieve similar public debt levels between 2020 and 2025, or sooner, under a broad definition of government debt.”

    ‘Six Million Jobs’

    Jones, who declined to comment for this story, said the renminbi may be undervalued by as much as 60 percent, when looking at absolute purchasing power.

    “In modern times, there never has been free trade with China,” Jones said in the letter. “The United States lost six million jobs, indebted itself to China by $1.4 trillion, and received in return a host of consumer goods, many of which now reside in landfills across the country.” …

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-26/tudor-says-gains-in-china-s-yuan-would-add-more-u-s-jobs-than-fed-easing.html

  108. Bklynhawk says:

    Informal survey, how many people think they have a neighbor who’s been scraping by and keeping the lights on and mortgage from falling into default through a combination of unemployment benefits and/or their savings/401k with that about to dry up?

    This segment on 60 Minutes and some people I know not quite there (but not far) got me wondering about that…

    http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/10/21/60minutes/main6978943_page2.shtml?tag=contentMain;contentBody

  109. prtraders2000 says:

    Went to the tax certificate sale today in Sea Girt. Of the four properties in the paper only 1 was available. Only one other bidder who knew less about the process than I did. He bought the certificate @ 18%. I decided not to bid since the tax collector claimed that the property owner was coming in today to pay his bill. I was really surprised that no one else was there. I may have missed a good one, but, like a lot of you here, I tend to suffer from paralysis by analysis. Back to work.

  110. Painhrtz says:

    From Brklnhawk’s posted article Dude made 200K

    They had saved for retirement and college for their son and daughter. But most of that is gone. “The unemployment checks were tiny, I can’t remember what they were but…,” Francone said.

    “$475,” his wife said.

    “Lisa, what were you doing with $475 a week?” Pelley asked.

    “Well, by the time we paid benefits, we had enough to pay a bill or two but certainly not meet the mortgage or property taxes or groceries,” she replied.

    Now their son is going to the military instead of college; selling the house will be next.

    Making 200K a year, should have had everything paid off! Instead you lived like 200K a year would always be coming, and now your kid is cannon fodder. If Grayson was smart he could go to college on ROTC but he is probably another ADHD, ritalin tard.

    Almost 2 K amonth should be more than enough to survive. Sorry you won’t be selling the house, not in California, and not for the nut you probably owe. If you were making 200K a year, you should have saved dumbass. Sorry I don’t feel sorry for you.

  111. Essex says:

    Gimmme

  112. Shore Guy says:

    “I rescind my prior gratitude and replace it with a hardy F-U! ”

    Now you sound like someone who was reared in CNJ.

  113. Mr Hyde says:

    Pain 113

    Sorry I don’t feel sorry for you.

    I agree, but the problem is everyone’s. We now have at least 3 full generations that have been spoon fed a consumerist life style, assuming that incomes always go up and interest rates always go down. How many families does it take hitting the wall, as they lose jobs and have no savings to fall back on and have nothing to show for it but toxic chinese crap, before we are a 3rd world backwater? The issue has been papered over and temporarily ameliorated through the huge surge in food stamps and 99 weeks of unemployment, but all these do is delay the inevitable. All they are doing is trying to tamp 50 lbs of $hit into a 30lb drum.

    Until substantial structural changes are made and the social contract is restored we will continue down the road to a very unpleasant future. Are enough people willing and able to pull their heads out of the TV and the latest hollywood scandal to demand that action be taken, while at the same time risking the very government cheese they are depending on? I hope so, as Leftwing’s version is a very unpleasant and very real possibility.

  114. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    We are a Christian country, we will see nothing but good times.

  115. nj escapee says:

    North Bergen man catches 50-pound bass in Hudson River

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2010/10/your_comments_north_bergen_man.html

  116. Al Gore says:

    Watch this Rand Paul supporter step on the head of a communist Move On.org sissy. I only wish he hit the piece of craps head with the butt of a rifle.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJ1nniVAsss&feature=sub

  117. leftwing says:

    Two indications of not well being in the neighborhood:

    A substantial increase in payment plans and tuition waiver requests in a youth sports program over last year.

    Garage sales. Can’t remember seeing one in our town until last year. Last weekend must have had four or five alone advertised at the intersection of two couty roads. This stuff used to be put curbside or donated, it says a lot now that people feel it’s worth their Saturday afternoon for whatever cash will come in.

  118. relo says:

    13: Clot,

    Re: Liar loans. As I’m sure you are more familiar, while many borrowers did lie, they probably needn’t have. Banks and mtg processors were happy to do it for them.

    SL – Sorry to have missed the GTG (assuming I would have been welcomed). Best of luck with the new place.

  119. Confused In NJ says:

    Channel 2 says Bloomberg is recommending that they change the Mayoral Term back to two terms per the peoples wishes, now that he is finishing his third term. Evidently the peoples wishes apply to everyone but Bloomberg.

  120. freedy says:

    The Gov.kills tunnel for second time. Now what?

  121. still_looking says:

    Thanks, Relo 121

    We will probably host another one at some point (hopefully soon.)

    sl

  122. ricky_nu says:

    Relo msg #121 – I am sorry but I gotta call Bullshit on your comments:

    Liar loans – borrowers lied -> doesn’t matter, it’s the banks fault

    Defaulting loan – deadbeat mortgagee -> doesn’t matter, it’s the banks fault

    Govt’ Idea for more widespread home-ownership (Bawney Fwank) -> doesn’t matter, it’s the banks fault

    Investors turning a blind eye (hey, this AAA stuff yields Treasuries +100bp, this is so easy!) -> doesn’t matter, it’s the banks fault

    sorry – I was raised that there are consequences to people’s actions, and I can’t help but think our self-deluded-over-spending-consumerist populace is copping out on some of our very own responsibility (no-one put a gun to anyone’s head to take equity out of their home to buy a Lexus).

  123. Barbara says:

    120. leftwing
    Garage sales/estate sales were poppin’ back in the 9os recession. I used to go all the time, got some cool stuff. May I need to venture out again.

  124. Barbara says:

    Maybe

  125. relo says:

    125: Slick Rick,

    No call necesary. Not absolving the debtor. They should hit the road, eventually. Just saying that the whole system was complicit.

    Another scenario to consider: What about those that tried to jingle mail, but the banks have said “no thanks”? That’s a business decision, right?

  126. Fabius Maximus says:

    #18 Nj escappe
    “but both parties sold us down the river.”

    I would disagree with this. I don’t think it was both parties selling us down the river. I put this squarely at Ronnie’s door. The shift to the service based economy started with him. It was carried forward by GWHB with the joy of NAFTA. Clinton was handicapped and GWB ran the bus into the wall. Some day America will wake up, take off the rose colorerd glasses and see the real damage RR did.

    Nom there are two things here.
    The first is that chair was pulled out of the lower class. Capitalism ran its full course and everything went to the bottom dollar. The right make this a union issue, but the truth is that unions are the last hope of the middle class as they look to preserve some sort of minimum standard.
    Here is a thought. Capitalism does not care about immigration. If someone is willing to come here to do a job for half minimum wage then capitalism says that they should be allowed to. The biggest issue here, as in every recession is that the lower rungs of society have no opportunity to work. My grandfather was a street sweeper. In today’s society that is called Community Service. The service sector economy took over and now we have college students or out of work grads , flipping burgers. Lettuce is picked by illegal’s that can’t afford to pick lettuce in their own countries because of NAFTA.
    Part of the whole idea of the FDR and the new deal is that you have to provide a low level of employment that is open to everyone. Give a green grant to a municipality to employ people to sweep the streets. In the old days a town would have a dozen people to sweep up and pull garbage. Now the trash removal has gone to a waste management contract and the streets are sweep with one guy with a leaf blower and one guy driving the sweeper truck.
    The second thing is that the corporate gravy train has to stop. Google paying 2.4% tax will have them getting thrown under the bus to protect the old timers at this game such as the defense and energy sectors.

    Here is a another thought. What would be the impact to the likes of Google if Ireland slammed a 3% tax levy on all revenue generated through the country. They could shelve their austerity budgets overnight. The GOOG, MS etc etc etc would line up to pay it, verses the probably 12% they would have to pay elsewhere. Don’t think Ireland is not considering this. The answer to Americas woes lies in the same bed. Tax the offshore income if it is not repatriated or if they flee like Haliburton, close the American market to them.

  127. nj escapee says:

    Fabius, You and I somehow landed on the same page but how who knows.

  128. Fabius Maximus says:

    #44 Dan

    Mortgage Interest tax relief should be scapped imediately. A totally unfair tax.

  129. Fabius Maximus says:

    #69 Shore

    To balance the budget, lets start by slashing the defence budget by half. Lets reign in the beast that RR released get rid of the excess and the pork. Lets get rid of the $100 hammers and equip the services with equipment that they actually need.

  130. Confused In NJ says:

    I would disagree with this. I don’t think it was both parties selling us down the river. I put this squarely at Ronnie’s door. The shift to the service based economy started with him. It was carried forward by GWHB with the joy of NAFTA. Clinton was handicapped and GWB ran the bus into the wall. Some day America will wake up, take off the rose colorerd glasses and see the real damage RR did.

    The shift to Service Based Economy started with JFK & LBJ. JFK, LBJ, RN, JC, RR, GB1, WJC, GB2, BO all participated to some degree. You want a Product mentality go back to DDE.

  131. Fabius Maximus says:

    #116 Hyde

    I would be very interested in your definition of “Social Contract”

  132. Fabius Maximus says:

    #119 Al

    Regardless of the politics that “sissy” woman looks like she weighs about 120lb. I think there are about three people in that video that are going to take a trip to the big house. That guy with the foot was so out of order the moment he lifted it.

  133. Confused In NJ says:

    31 States effected by freaky weather:

    Meteorologists said the storm’s barometric pressure readings were comparable to those of a Category 3 hurricane but with much weaker winds. The wind gusts were only as strong as a tropical storm. Category 3 hurricanes have winds from 111 to 130 mph.

    Storm pressure works like this: The lower the pressure, the greater the winds. The higher the pressure, the calmer and balmier the weather is. If Tuesday’s low-pressure system had been over water — where winds get higher — it would have created a major hurricane, Imy said.

    Tom Skilling, a meteorologist with WGN-TV in Chicago, said the size of the storm — 31 states were under some sort of weather advisory, from blizzards to thunderstorms to tornadoes — also was unusual.

    Severe thunderstorm warnings blanketed much of the Midwest, and tornado watches were issued from Arkansas to Ohio.

    Eleven states were under a high wind warning: Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Ohio and parts of Kentucky.

    Meanwhile, a blizzard warning was issued for much of North Dakota, where the weather service said up to 10 inches of snow could fall in some areas into early Wednesday and into northern South Dakota. Wind gusts of more than 50 mph in many areas would make travel treacherous.

    In the Chicago area, morning commuters faced blustery, wind-driven rain as they waited for trains. Some huddled beneath railway overpasses to stay out of the gusts, dashing to the platform at the last minute.

  134. Fabius Maximus says:

    #130 nj escapee

    Don’t say that, they’ll label you a “Liberal” just for thinking it!

  135. Shore Guy says:

    Fabius,

    I have seen, from close up, Pentagon waste. There is pleanty. There is aalso waste imposed on the Pentagon by a congress that sees Pentagon spending as a make-work project for their districts. Do you know that parts for rhe B-1 Bomber cane from every single congressional district? And, this year, congress has ordered the Pentagon to purchase enginesit does not want for aircraft that already have a suitable engine. Why? Jobs back home. Meanwhile, our C-17 fleet is being run into the ground supplying our forces in South Asia — an area where we sent troops with inadequaate basic equipment.

    I am all for cutting unnecessary military spending. That said, with our history of running roughshod over the rest of the world — based on a self image of exceptionalism — we will need every military advantage we can deploy, sooner rather than later.

  136. Fabius Maximus says:

    #133 Confused

    I disagree Lassiez Faire launched the serviced based economy.

    Why build a factory when I can just borrow the money and open a McDs franchise or import cheap or set up a consultancy company to provide services.

  137. Fabius Maximus says:

    #138 Shore

    The B1, a perfect example where Carter canceled it and Reagan resurected it.

    The biggest issue I have here is the likes of the engines. Pull that money and put it to use were it is needed. Like replacing equipment that was ravaged my the middle east sands and towards the battlefield equipment that is actually needed.

    Should we have to have community collections to buy body armor for the soldiers from the local area.

  138. Shore Guy says:

    The B-1 was a fine plane, the process of building it was not. As for the rest of your statement, I agree

  139. Shore Guy says:

    Hummmmmmmm.

    A massive storm nails Chicago and Indonesia gets hit by a volcanic eruption and a tsunami. Has anything bad happened in Kenya and Hawaii today?

  140. Lamar says:

    ricky (125)-

    You are right on all those examples. However, the LAW states that the mortgagee must PRODUCE THE NOTE to have standing to foreclose.

    The law is not about fair, nor is it about feelings or relative levels of culpability.

    Then again, I have no doubt that the banks will completely engineer a way around rule of law in order to end this whole fraudclosure mess.

  141. Lamar says:

    gluteus (135)-

    Every member of MoveOn should have their heads stamped in by giant thugs in jackboots.

  142. Fabius Maximus says:

    #141 Shore

    I think they said the same thing about the Spruce Goose.

  143. Fabius Maximus says:

    #144 Clot

    Which is why you don’t fit in a democracy. Do you need a copy of 101 Recepies for Plantains for your relocation to Chilie?

  144. Lamar says:

    When I move to Chile, I will eat giant amounts of meat, skewered on swords and grilled over hardwood fires.

    I will then dream of wearing steel-toed jackboots and stomping the heads of nancy-boy wealth redistributors.

  145. Lamar says:

    gluteus (146)-

    I fit in a democracy just fine. It’s the other lily-livered milquetoasts who can’t hack it.

  146. leftwing says:

    “Regardless of the politics that “sissy” woman looks like she weighs about 120lb. I think there are about three people in that video that are going to take a trip to the big house. That guy with the foot was so out of order the moment he lifted it.”

    Oh, Fabius…

    So it’s circa 1985. I’m trying to finish my undergrad degrees, one in economics and one in government. Ivy sort of place, although that doesn’t really matter except for the politics to come.

    I arrive at school that year after Winter break with my annual installment of five figure loans, when that amount actually bought something in the field of higher ed and was a meaningful amount of debt for a borrower. The vehicle I arrived in was driven by my father. It was my vehicle and had a totally rusted out floorboard that I ‘replaced’ with a stolen 55mph sign from the NYS Thruway. Needless to say it was a bit drafty and upstate NY winters are not kind so during my chauffered ride to school I was wrapped in a blanket since the heater at full blast couldn’t keep me warm.

    My dad drove me because his car wasn’t working and he needed my college POS back at home as primary transportation for him and my mother.

    So I arrive and get my ‘work-study’ job in the dining hall. Work-study didn’t really work that well for me since there was so much work to put myself through school there was little time for study but I needed it. No joke, I was saved by a course in the College for Human Ecology (not making that one up) in Womens Studies. Class times conflicted directly with my job but I took it pass/fail, never attended a class, and passed the exams (just).

    Anyway, as I go to cash my paycheck in the student union (didn’t have enough money to maintain a bank account without fees) there is a protest. Recall all the rage back then was South Africa…crosses planted in the lawn on top of the bookstore, etc. The hall leading to the campus bursar where I could cash my check was blocked by people lined all the way down, both sides, backs to each wall and legs extended to the middle. Rather good looking crowd who as I made way down the hall trying to avoid the legs they kept shifting so I may land on them kept saying all while ‘step on us as you step on the peoples of South Africa’.

    So I stand there, halfway down the hallway, reeking of fryer grease, nowhere to go, in the white high collared cook shirt and those funky black and white checkered cook’s pants I think, wtf why not. And I stomp HARD on some b****’s leg who is a dead ringer for your 120 lb chick, glasses, butch haircut and all. And I pause a good long time to grind the heel of the shoe in real, real hard. And then I proceed to cash my check and never look back at the liberal silliness again.

    So…anytime, anywhere now. I’ll start a defense fund for the three in the video or better yet attend the next Paul gathering myself. The only – only – mistake the guys in the video made was letting up before they heard a snapping sound.

  147. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Fabius,

    Nary a peep from you re: union thuggery. What gives?

    And I am glad to see you have come around to my thinking that the only way you get your vaunted middle class, union-run, redistributionist utopia is by erecting economic walls to keep the rest of the world’s goods out (and our raw materials in, lest we sell them all to China).

  148. toomuchchange says:

    116 –

    Yes, a new social contract and protectionism (which you’ve mentioned before) sound good and necessary to me.

    God knows what we’ll get out of the new Congress. I’m afraid we’ll go from bad to worse. Do any of the Republicans have more to say than “cut taxes” and “reduce the deficit”? Since Americans have demonstrated time and time again that tax cuts are for me but spending cuts are meant for thee, I don’t have much faith in their program.

    I figure Obama and Co. know fundamental changes are required, but do they have the guts to even hint at this?

    I cannot tell you how much I enjoy and appreciate your thoughtful comments. No matter what, you ignore the noise and persist in thinking things through. You are one of my favorite posters — and not just here, but anywhere, really. Just thought I’d let you know.

  149. It is amazing how we reach the bottom every so often of this market, yet we continue to break through the floor.

  150. ricky_nu says:

    Lamar re:#143 – I agree, banks should get their stuff together (and abide by the law!) before they can foreclose. After all, that is one of the thing they get paid for.

    To the extent that they got sloppy, and now must pay to disentangle the mess, well too bad, they made their bed.

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