A different kind of stimulus

From the WSJ:

The Stealth Stimulus of Defaulters Living for Free

The mortgage-foreclosure mess could prove expensive for banks and investors. But in some states, it will also prolong an unintended economic stimulus: free housing for millions of defaulters.

Across the U.S., banks are running into problems foreclosing on homes because of flaws in their paperwork. Their main transgression involves the use of so-called robo-signers, bank employees who signed foreclosure affidavits without properly checking the required loan documentation. Major loan servicers—including Bank of America Corp., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Ally Financial Inc.’s GMAC Mortgage—have at least temporarily stopped some foreclosure sales as state attorneys general probe their practices and loan servicers check to make sure their papers are in order.

The problems will be expensive for banks, and for investors in mortgage bonds, in terms of added processing costs and lost interest income. But for the millions of U.S. homeowners who have stopped making mortgage payments or who are already in the foreclosure process, the upshot is that they’ll get to stay in their homes a bit longer. Given that they’re not paying rent, that time has value.

Defaulters living in their homes are getting a subsidy worth about $2.6 billion a month, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis based on mortgage data from LPS Applied Analytics and rent data from the Commerce Department. That’s 0.25% of U.S. personal income, roughly equivalent to the benefit top earners receive from Bush-era tax breaks.

The longer defaulters stay in their homes, the longer the stimulus lasts. The average borrower whose home is in the foreclosure process hasn’t made a payment in nearly 16 months, according to LPS.

In most places, the foreclosure delays are unlikely to amount to more than a couple more months of free rent, says Ivy Zelman, chief executive of housing-market consultancy Zelman & Associates. But she says it could be six or more months in states such as Florida and New York, where the legal bottlenecks are most severe.

“In places where people get an extra month or two, it probably doesn’t have much effect,” Ms. Zelman says. “But in states where it lasts longer, it’s probably stimulative.”

This entry was posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, Risky Lending. Bookmark the permalink.

154 Responses to A different kind of stimulus

  1. grim says:

    From CNN/Money:

    Home prices expected to slide another 8%

    The robo-signing controversy is just another issue that the already sluggish housing market didn’t need — but most analysts do not think it will have far-reaching impact.

    Nevertheless, the housing market still faces many problems: a weak economy, sluggish hiring, tight mortgage underwriting, falling home prices, and slowing sales.

    Then there’s the potentially disastrous number of foreclosures that may occur over the coming years.

    “The market faces much bigger problems than the robo-signing issue,” said Mike Larson, a housing market analyst for Weiss Research.

    Prime among them are declines in home prices. And while cheaper homes are good for buyers, they also speak to a housing market that won’t stabilize.

    The good news is, “There’ll be no vicious, self-reinforcing spiral down,” according to Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody’s Analytics.

    But, he added, “more home price declines are coming.”

    He’s forecasting another 8% drop in home prices through the third quarter of 2011, which will put the total peak-to-trough decline at 34%.

    Even after that, in 2012, he sees very little price growth.

    Home prices continue to fall because sales aren’t taking off. Without buyers, the market can’t bottom out.

  2. Nomad says:

    How are all the dining places and malls so busy? I do not understand where the money comes from to pay for this – all these people living on credit cards and extra $$ they have because they are not paying their mtg.

  3. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey You know the nearer your destination the more you’re slip sliding away

  4. Mike says:

    Average person in the foreclosure process hasn’t made a payment in 16 months? Who’s the arse hole here

  5. yo'me says:

    Defaulters living in their homes are getting a subsidy worth about $2.6 billion a month, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis based on mortgage data from LPS Applied Analytics and rent data from the Commerce Department. That’s 0.25% of U.S. personal income, roughly equivalent to the benefit top earners receive from Bush-era tax breaks.

    So this is how much savings the top 5% earners saved for 10 years of Bush tax cut.”2.6 Billion a Month”. And of course the top 5% earners want it extended.GREED!!

  6. yo'me says:

    We are suppose to vote the same Party back to power today.Same party that created this mess.Everyday I read Clots post,I am starting to agree with him and revert my optimism.

  7. Mike says:

    This is what’s stated on the last few lines from the Union County Sheriff’s sale information page : “If the property is occupied, it will be your responsibility to have any occupants legally removed.
    Eviction proceedings are only done by Superior Court order. There is a fee for this order and a fee for the sheriff to evict persons from property purchased at a sheriff’s sale”. Tack on another 6 months of rent free living! Thanks for gettiing fired up so early in the morning Grim

  8. Nomad says:

    So take away the free rent and consumer spending drops I guess. Time to look for apartment REITs to buy?

  9. Anon E. Moose says:

    Yo [5];

    So this is how much savings the top 5% earners saved for 10 years of Bush tax cut.”2.6 Billion a Month”. And of course the top 5% earners want it extended.GREED!!

    You missed the point entirely. Dear Leader and his party are DEMagoguing about ‘tax cuts for the rich’ while the state-run media can’t find equivalent outrage over the the “Deadbeat Stimulus Package”. Fannie/Freddie Funded Mortgages: Fire and Forget! Forget about repayment, forget about foreclosing.

  10. Shore Guy says:

    I thought Zandi called a bottom a year ago.

  11. smathers says:

    Plenty of people still make money around here. We’ve been trying to pounce on houses in Montclair and are finding it isn’t as easy as you’d like. Things are either overpriced or sell fast.

    This is not to say that the distant boonies aren’t getting destroyed. Funny that the places with the most Tea Partiers are the places with the most people living in default. I guess the people who still pay their mortgages must be mighty peeved that their neighbors are still living in their houses but not paying the mortgage.

    But in the tonier places, things are “bad” but it’s all relative. Own an ugly, non-updated house? Sorry. Own a house that’s been thoroughly updated in a great neighborhood and price it well below assessed? You’ll sell fast and maybe even get multiple bids.

    Now if the school systems go to hell, that’s another story. But that’s what it is now.

    And yes, I know full well that putting money in a house is throwing it away, but that can be said of pretty much any financial investment I can think of and I’m sick of renting so might as well buy. It’s clear that neither the Republicans nor the Democrats will curb Wall Street’s excesses anytime soon and as long as I delude myself into thinking I enjoy working where I work and living around here, then the bonuses will keep flowing.

  12. Painhrtz says:

    Obligatory

    “it’s differnet here”

  13. Painhrtz says:

    Mispelling intended

    We are all screwed, I have just stopped caring trying to keep my head above water while trying to figure out a way to part the little guy from a buck or two.

  14. safe as houses says:

    The delayed foreclosure process is a backdoor stimulus play. The longer the banks take to foreclose, the more cash Joe6 has to spend or to save up and recoup his downpayment. And since credit scores are now about as meaningless as a AAA rating on a mortgage back security neg arm pool, 2-3 years after Joe6 gets kicked out, he can restart the road to home ownership and buy a house he might actually afford on a 30 year fixed mtg.

  15. jp says:

    I believe that you get what you deserve at the end of the day.

    I hope those riding a living w/o paying for housing will have a revolving credit of $0 in the future.

  16. Yikes says:

    Maybe the only people you see out spending money are the smart ones who saved $$$ the last 5 years? We have noticed a lot of restaurants are packed on Friday/Saturday (Bucks County).

    Nomad says:
    November 1, 2010 at 6:45 am

    How are all the dining places and malls so busy? I do not understand where the money comes from to pay for this – all these people living on credit cards and extra $$ they have because they are not paying their mtg.

  17. yo'me says:

    (9) Moose
    About Stimulus
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stimulus-worked-but-not-as-well-as-hoped-2010-10-29

    Forget about repayment, forget about foreclosing.

    I believe either party’s have a strong agenda to bring us out of this mess but this was created by GWB and the same FED that did not see a 8 trillion dollar housing bubble.

    If the Banks commited fraud ,which they have, by submitting false document.Will the Court of Law allow them to do over again without consequences?A common person that commited fraud will not be allowed to re submit proper paper work.How can the court foreclose on the home?

    Will you allow the banks to a do over?

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/30/business/30nocera.html?_r=3&ref=business

  18. NJCoast says:

    You underwater homeowners who keep making mortgage payments are preventing a recovery. Get with the program and stop acting responsibly. Shame on you.

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-economy-mortgages-20101101,0,7338975.story

  19. Nomad says:

    Hey Yikes – are there any express trains or bus that will get one from Bucks area to NY Penn Station relatively quickly? I think I can go to NJ Transit in Trenton but not sure of any other options. You mentioned Bucks Co in your response to my post so I thought you might know.

  20. dan says:

    Nomad, my rent got jacked up by 8% due to high demand and yes, the rental office tells me that people have moved out of their foreclosed homes to live there so yes, by all means, the REITs are the way to go.

  21. Lamar says:

    Abandon hope, all ye who enter here.

    On a fun side note, I have taken a position in the wine industry and have begun seriously curtailing my RE work. Company is importing very high-quality wine from W. Australia (no hot-climate SE Australian crap) & New Zealand. Also have a few Italian wines coming and some very nice stuff from CA and WA.

    I really do think RE is dead for the next 20-40 years. If it’s gotten to the point where I can’t make a buck doing it, I seriously doubt anyone can.

  22. JJ says:

    btw repealing the Bush Tax cuts of Cap Gains and lower Tax on Dividends on the rich only (200K and up) equals six days of the annual Federal Budget. Now lets get the middle class and poor to pay for the remaining 359 days and we will be in good shape.

    where is chi-fi to bust me on Ambac?

  23. Lamar says:

    After 9/11 = go buy consumer crap, and do your part help save the economy

    11/1/10= stiff your mortgage company to do your part in helping save the economy by buying consumer crap

    We are so far down the rabbit hole, we may never come out.

  24. Nomad says:

    Lamar,

    Maybe you should bring some of your wine to 56 degrees in Bernardsville – he usually has a great selection of stuff that you don’t see at every other store.

    On you comment of RE being dead – I wonder if we don’t see consistent reports for each of the next few years of housing prices dropping 3-5%. Different that a one year implosion of 25% but the protracted pain is like water torture.

  25. Lamar says:

    BTW, it cannot be any more clear that only idiots pay their mortgage.

    I still haven’t brought myself to default, and I know I’ll be kicking myself in a few years.

  26. Mr Hyde says:

    Safe 14

    Its is also a ploy to keep the big banks functional. The big banks are bankrupt already but are being allowed to paper over that inconvenient little fact. However if they were forced to resolve the foreclosure process in a prompt manner and per black letter law, then they would implode in very short order.

    The primary recipients of this stealth bailout are the banks with the increase in consumer spending by the homeowners who are in foreclosure being a nice little bonus.

    If the banks were forced to promptly resolve the foreclosure mess per black letter law, then RE prices would implode as well. GOV wants neither the banks nor RE prices to implode and is doing all it can to prop both up.

  27. Lamar says:

    nomad (24)-

    I know that guy. He nearly killed a store out by me before decamping to Bernardsville. Took the owners several years to dig out of that hole. The 56 Degree dude is a great wine guy but not a businessman. Will probably end up calling on them, but I’m going to be careful. In the wine biz, fast pay makes fast friends.

  28. Lamar says:

    hyde (26)-

    It’s all a giant game of musical chairs. A bunch of idiots, hovering in a circle, waiting to pounce when the music stops.

    Too bad that when the music stops this time, the whole world is going to implode.

  29. dan says:

    yo’me,

    You’re not going to tell me now that Clinton brought us budget surpluses and conveniently overlook the internet bubble and Enron phony profits now are you? I realize that the democratic party invented the internet, Microsoft, Intel, Cisco and so on but please don’t credit one prez for a bubble and bash another for the same especially when both caused the housing bubble.

  30. Lamar says:

    The people to hang the blame on were the fools in Congress in 1913 who allowed the whole Ponzi to start.

    They obviously didn’t take the lesson of Andrew Jackson vs. the Second Bank of the US to heart.

    Nor have we. I’d be willing to bet not one out in 1,500 Americans has any idea what that whole incident was about or how it matters today.

  31. safeashouses says:

    #26 Hyde,

    We’re all just kicking the can down the road hoping the man keeps pouring asphalt.

  32. Anon E. Moose says:

    Hyde [26];

    My view is that the banks would have to recognize their insolvency if they actually followed through on the foreclosure of all these deliquent mortgages. They can extend and pretend as long as the crap is on their books marked to fantasy.

    However, for my purposes, I don’t give a $h!t. I can buy the house from RTC2 after the banks’ insolvency sale just as easily as I can buy it from the bank after they foreclose on the deadbeat.

  33. Yo'me says:

    Dan

    Clinton has the Tech bubble under his belt and GWB has the Housing bubble.Either way,Greenspan is credited for the bubbles.Stockman of Reagan administration started the Republican tax cut mantra.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7009246n&tag=related;photovideo

  34. Mr Hyde says:

    Moose 32

    agreed

  35. Al Gore says:

    JJ,

    Hows that AMBAC doin? Whats next Irvington municipal bonds?

    “■Shares of Ambac Financial Group Inc., already a penny stock, lost nearly half their value in Monday’s premarket after the bond insurer said it missed a Nov. 1 interest payment on its debt and warned it may file for bankruptcy by the end of the year. “

  36. RentinginNJ says:

    Anyone here ever do a HARP loan?

    This is one of the Obama programs where one can refinance an existing mortgage with greater than 80% LTV at supposedly prevailing rates and no PMI. It’s considered a failed program, because so few people qualify (LTV between 80% and 105%, no PMI, no liars loans, no second liens, good credit and sufficient income). This rules out a lot of people, but I actually meet all the criteria.

    Basically, I’m probably at about 85% LTV. While I have the cash to bring to the table to get up to 80%, I would rather keep my cash. Has anyone gone through HRP? How are the interest rates? Any recommendations on where to go?

  37. Mr Hyde says:

    lamar,

    First consider how many people know how “money” in the US is issued/created. if they dont understand the basic process used to generate the money the use everyday why do you think they would understand or be aware of Jackson’s fight with the Second Bank of The US?

  38. Al Gore says:

    Check out the 10 year yields in Ireland over the past 6 months. They never should have joined the EU.

    http://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/Fgu06NirzYigp_rmOK103g?feat=embedwebsite

  39. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [80] [prior thread] shore

    “Indiana voters are likely Tuesday to enshrine new property-tax caps in the state constitution with an amendment that would make them permanent, adding to pressures on municipal budgets already hit by declines in incomes and housing prices. . . .”

    That’s an idea that I proposed, in a slightly different form, years ago. Problem with caps imposed on munis is that they can kill you just as easily in other ways, including increased state aid.

    If you are going the const. amendment route, (which I agree is the only safe route), you have to (1) bar the state from implementing an ad valorem tax (which prevents the state from imposing a property tax on behalf of the muni), and (2) impose other limits on state taxation and growth to prevent the state from making up revenue in other ways.

    As long as they were at it, they should have tried to add an amendment that bars the state from guaranteeing any pensions. It is of mimimal legal effect (the state cannot declare bankruptcy), but it removes one thing that the unions can rely on in court, and sends a very strong signal that the taxpayer will not bail you out.

    FWIW, I predict a resurgence in the doctrine of sovereign immunity.

  40. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Bank Merger Monday

    Wilmington Trust got bought by M&T:

    “Wilmington’s . . . legal advisers were Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom.

    M&T’s . . . legal adviser was Lipton, Rosen & Katz”

    Bill Sweet at Skadden and Richard Kim at Wachtell. Know them both very well. Add in Rog Cohen and they are the trimvirate of lawyers for Bank M&A.

  41. Anon E. Moose says:

    Yo [17];

    We’ve pretty much beat this horse dead horse already here. My position is to punish the banks for their misdeeds against the courts with a fine to the courts; and to move on to resolve the banks’ claims against the land.

    Your position appears to be that the deadbeats and defaulted home-loaners who were witless fodder in the robo-signing process should receive their houses free and clear for their trouble as a sanction against the banks. Harry and Hilda Howmuchamonth would therefore not only escape any sanction for their own default, they would receive a windfall house, and serve as a shinning example of the conduct the courts deem worthy of handsome reward both to those paying their mortgages as agreed (see Lamar [25], above) and those who waited out the insanity on the sidelines (yours truly).

    BTW, you forgot to mention “Rule of Law” and “Due Process” in your argument. Those are like kryptonite against the banks.

  42. Mike says:

    What exit in Joisey did manufacturing go up?

  43. Al Gore says:

    Lamar,

    Here comes your Comex failure to deliver event.

    “A King World News contact out of London has confirmed that, “Massive Asian buying is going to squeeze the shorts in the silver market. Any reactions in the price of silver will be heavily purchased, and these buyers will take delivery of physical silver.” The source who wishes to remain anonymous agreed with Eric Sprott that this squeeze could take the price of silver to $50 in a matter of months.”
    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2010/11/1_KWN_Source_Says_Asians_to_Squeeze_Silver_Shorts.html

  44. Anon E. Moose says:

    Interesting observation how before “robo-signers” were all the rage, the argument was that legal mortgages, contractual obligations to Grandma via pension fund investments, etc. didn’t matter — it was immoral to put a ‘family’ out of ‘their’ house through foreclosure.

    Now, however, strictest adherence to black-letter law by the banks is the standard before any foreclosure should go forward.

    http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/251708/populist-rage-over-foreclosures-doesn-t-justify-breakdown-rule-law-anthony-randazzo

  45. chicagofinance says:

    MOTHERFCUKERS!!!!! WHY NOW?
    Ambac in talks for prepackaged bankruptcy
    Ambac Financial Group says it’s in talks with debt holders for prepackaged bankruptcy plan

    NEW YORK (AP) — Bond insurer Ambac Financial Group says it is talking with senior debt holders to restructure its debt through a prepackaged bankruptcy plan.

    The company says if it can’t reach agreement on the prepackaged plan, it will file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The company says if it needs to make the filing, it will be done by the end of the year.

    Ambac also says its board of directors decided not to make a regularly scheduled interest payment on debentures due Monday. The company now has 30 days to pay or it will be in default.

    The development is the embattled company’s latest warning amid two years of struggle to regain its footing after getting pummeled by the collapse of the housing market.

  46. Anon E. Moose says:

    http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/251626/justice-department-goes-alaska-hans-von-spakovsky

    Re: the legal wranglings in the Alaskan senate race: doen’t the idea of “posters listing write-in candidates and their party affiliations” kind of eliminate the concept of a “write-in candidate”? That objectively spits on the primary process. Sure people should have the freedome to write in a candidate of their choosing, but if you want to get your name on the ballot, you gotta win the primary.

  47. yo'me says:

    Moose 42

    Your position appears to be that the deadbeats and defaulted home-loaners who were witless fodder in the robo-signing process should receive their houses free and clear for their trouble as a sanction against the banks.

    Not at all! My position is the same as yours! Deadbeats are able to stay in their home because the banks in question commited Fraud.Unintended consequences.The Supreme Court will not go on the side of deadbeats getting their home free and clear.They will stay rent free until this mess is sorted out.Lawsuits after another that can take years at the end Mr.ESQ benefits and of course the deadbeat.Are you still paying your mortgage? I am seriously thinking of getting in the bandwagon.

  48. Anon E. Moose says:

    Chifi [46];

    “Out! Seven. Take the line, pay the don’ts…” Sounds like the dice rolled against you. Too bad you’re not a big democratic power base like the UAW.

  49. chicagofinance says:

    I was right; the timing was wrong so I was wrong……………………………

  50. yo'me says:

    Moose

    BTW, you forgot to mention “Rule of Law” and “Due Process” in your argument. Those are like kryptonite against the banks.

    I did!Read 2nd link.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/30/business/30nocera.html?_r=4&ref=business

  51. JJ says:

    This is a pre-pac bankruptcy set up by the insurance regulators. They ring-circled the cash to cover the insured muni bonds. Now they want to wipe out the common shareholders and most of the junior bondholders. However, this pre-pac requires senior bond holders approval. Normally I get something like new bonds with a hair cut and made whole by common stock in new company. In CIT when they did that if you held out between new bonds and stock you got way above face in the end. Today was a good day to do it as they don’t have to make the 11-1-10 bond interest, if they did not do it today, they would have done it on 2-1-11 when their next big bond interest payment is due.

    Personally, I think senior Ambac SENIOR bonds are a good buy today at 29. Said the same thing on CIT bonds when in BK worries they were 30 and how all in you would have 130.

    Then again I sold all my Genworth bonds day before they missed numbers last week and my Wilmnington Trust bonds today just got bought by MT and went up a to A rated investment grade and my Dennys junk bonds got called at par today so I am in a good mood.

    Interesting is this had no effect on MBIA bonds.

    Al Gore says:
    November 1, 2010 at 10:27 am

    JJ,

    Hows that AMBAC doin? Whats next Irvington municipal bonds?

    “■Shares of Ambac Financial Group Inc., already a penny stock, lost nearly half their value in Monday’s premarket after the bond insurer said it missed a Nov. 1 interest payment on its debt and warned it may file for bankruptcy by the end of the year. “

  52. Mr Hyde says:

    I guess The PIGS are officially toast

    Angela Merkel consigns Ireland, Portugal and Spain to their fate

    By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
    Published: 5:37PM GMT 31 Oct 2010

    Germany has had enough. Any eurozone state that spends its way into a debt crisis or cannot adapt to a monetary union set for Northern rhythms will face “orderly” bankruptcy.

    Bondholders will discover burden-sharing. Debt relief will be enforced, either by interest holidays or haircuts on the value of the bonds. Investors will pay the price for failing to grasp the mechanical and obvious point that currency unions do not eliminate risk: they switch it from exchange risk to default risk.

  53. Anon E. Moose says:

    Yo [48];

    I truly wish I had a mortgage to default on. “Deadbeats are able to stay in their home” == deadbeats win. If the bank can’t move them out, why should they re-start payments? (Its really not in dispute that the deadbeat is in deafult, is it?) You also want to bar the banks from coming back when they get their paperwork in order (“A common person that commited fraud will not be allowed to re submit proper paper work.” [17]). Which means that, if it is just a matter of who signed the affidavit and how long they spend reading the file before doing so, the only party that can foreclose is now barred from foreclosing — even if they do get their $h!t together. That sounds like all the more reason for the deadbeats to keep up the non-payment – the mortgage holder can’t foreclose! If not them, then who?

    Ignoring that, I don’t buy the suggestion that letting the deadbeats stay in ‘their’ house is ‘only’ a temporary expedient until the banks get it together. A) Three years rent-free in a house the likes of which probably isn’t available for rent at any price is a pretty nice consolation prize presuming the deadbeats don’t eventually get their house free and clear; and B) I always read “temporary” as forever on the installment plan — there’s nothing stopping the courts from instituting another ‘termporary’ extension/excuse when the current one expires, ad infinitum.

  54. JJ says:

    Bondholders, only concern we want to be paid under the term of loan. If you can’t do that declare BK pays us our cents on a dollar and let me move on.

    Bondholders, be it GM, or MBS don’t want swap deals for pennies on the dollar jammed down are throats while company makes out.

    If I owned Irish Bank Bonds I would say declare BK let me take my chances in court. Maybe assets sales will give me more, maybe not. I don’t want the bank and irish govt making up values and jamming me with their version of what I should get.

  55. Mr Hyde says:

    From Zerohedge

    Indiana Braces For Violence, Adds Armed Guards To Unemployment Offices In Anticipation Of 99-Week Jobless Benefits Expiration

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/indiana-braces-violence-adds-armed-guards-unemplyment-offices-anticipation-99-week-jobless-b

  56. Yikes says:

    Sorry, no idea. Work from home and if I have to go into NYC, I drive. A few neighbors make the trek (1:45-2 hrs, supposedly), but I haven’t talked to them about it yet.

    Nomad says:
    November 1, 2010 at 9:22 am

    Hey Yikes – are there any express trains or bus that will get one from Bucks area to NY Penn Station relatively quickly? I think I can go to NJ Transit in Trenton but not sure of any other options. You mentioned Bucks Co in your response to my post so I thought you might know.

  57. Anon E. Moose says:

    Lamar [21];

    I have taken a position in the wine industry and have begun seriously curtailing my RE work.

    Another one bites the dust. I am truly happy for you. I’d love to buy a bottle of wine — quite disappointed with the “Wine of the Month” crap my spouse has been getting, esp at the price point + shipping. Unless of course the price of wine includes the expectation of future appreciation and investment potential.

  58. freedy says:

    i guess real estate is not coming back as fast as they say on cnbc

  59. A.West says:

    A lefty colleague read this FT article about Tea Partiers and said she was thinking of moving to Canada:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/88143c46-e1e1-11df-b18d-00144feabdc0,dwp_uuid=a474654c-c4a3-11df-bc11-00144feab49a.html

    Those haughty brits still think tea partiers are just ignorant rabble, and then pick a couple of examples to “prove” that bias.

    I have to admit, I suspect there are a lot of ignorant people at these Tea Parties, even if I support their general thrust of less government spending, less taxation.

    Has anyone here been to such protests/meetings, and can they confirm or deny the level of intelligence among the participants?

    I don’t generally like it when politicians/populist commentators take good ideas and dumb them down to the level of ridiculable straw-men. Because then folks like the NYT/FT can point to some stupidity on their part and tell intelligent but ignorant people, “see, it’s all just ridiculous nonsense, and you needn’t give these ideas any serious thought”.

  60. Lamar says:

    hyde (38)-

    Yeah, I had a brain fart there for a minute…fantasizing that people might actually start learning something about the genesis and history of the crisis that’s about to wipe out civilization.

    The really scary thing is that the few people who do want to do some thinking seem to be gravitating toward morons like Glenn Beck.

    We are truly doomed.

  61. Unexpected HEHEHE says:

    JJ,

    You see this?

    Wilmington Trust’s $3.84 Take Under Catches Morgan Stanley’s Pate, Suntrust’s Hodgson And 9 Other Sellsiders With Pants Down

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/wilmington-trusts-384-take-under-catches-morgan-stanleys-pate-suntrusts-hodgson-and-9-other-

    Can we knock another 40% off JPM?

  62. Painhrtz says:

    Lamar, see I would have no problem getting in line with the tea party but the uber religous rhetoric of some right wingers truly infuriates me. They love to hold up the constitution but ignore the establishment clause of the first ammendment. Drives me nuts. I just see them as another group, like the socialist democrats, who will try to impose their will or perception of what is right upon me.

    I’ll stick to my libertarian principles, free market, limited government, and small taxation. The rest is just social engineering to conform to what they deem is right.

  63. Lamar says:

    chi (46)-

    Just too funny. It just keeps going from gray to black.

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  67. Lamar says:

    hyde (56)-

    Indiana always struck me as a place where the regular folk are pretty well armed.

    And, Gary, IN is no slouch of a town in the old ultra-violence department.

  68. Lamar says:

    moose (58)-

    Nah. I sell wine for drinking, not museum pieces.

    What stores do you shop?

  69. dan says:

    A. West,

    If you feel the need to basically call old white grandparents worried about their grandkids having a future stake in this country idiots while being taxed heavily now, so be it. I guess the intelligence is far superior at a SEIU, Carpenter’s or Foodworker’s unions political rallies but what do I know?

  70. Tom says:

    I don’t know why people are surprised about robo-signers. The banks rubber stamped the mortgages, why wouldn’t they rubber stamp the foreclosures?

    Foreclosure rates started increasing shortly after the turn of the century but it wasn’t as much of a problem since many people were able to become house flippers out of necessity since house prices kept rising. If they couldn’t afford their home they were able to sell it off shortly after purchase for a profit in most cases.

    Banks didn’t care about home ownership, they just wanted to keep writing mortgages to be chopped up and sold off.

    The problem is people stopped playing their game when they couldn’t even pretend to afford homes at their peak prices.

    If they robo-signed loan modifications as part of HAMP borrowers could stay in their homes (like they’re doing now) but be paying for it. Instead borrowers live rent free then months later the banks sell the properties, usually for less than their judgment.

    Doesn’t seem to make much sense to me.

  71. Lamar says:

    Tom (71)-

    Precisely. Just as in anything else: garbage in, garbage out.

    Take that concept- then marry it to moral hazard- and you have a recipe for taking the world back to the Stone Age. Which we seem hell-bent on doing.

  72. Mr Hyde says:

    Lamar,

    I love hearing people try and explain why the people of the nation should be placed into debt (without there express consent) with a private banking cartel for the privilege of issuing the sovereign currency in a monetary system which guarantees that the debt can never be repaid, only held at bay through economic expansion. Anything other then expansion causes the said debt and the associated currency to implode.

    If only there were some sort of government body that was capable of issuing currency without encumbering every dollar issued with a debt greater then the dollar issued.

  73. Mr Hyde says:

    there = their

  74. Unexpected HEHEHE says:

    Extreme Readings in Bullish Investor Sentiment as Insiders Bail at Highest Rate Ever Tracked

    Hallelujah! In a few days the Fed will announce what nearly everyone thinks is the “sure thing” that will propel stocks higher. Supposedly it will be buy the rumor, buy the news, and then keep buying.

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/11/extreme-readings-in-bullish-investor.html

  75. JJ says:

    Wilmington Trust’s shareholders slammed and bond holders rewarded once again. Damm Shareholders are the scum of the earth. Just kidding, but getting scary how often this happens. My bonds are at 106 today in Wilmington.

  76. dan says:

    What can I say, the blog has been right in their opinions. We all should have defaulted on our mortgages (if I had one) in 2008, rented out the house in the meantime and bought gold.

  77. dan says:

    From Tom:
    I don’t know why people are surprised about robo-signers. The banks rubber stamped the mortgages, why wouldn’t they rubber stamp the foreclosures?

    Good point.

  78. leftwing says:

    OT:

    Need to get an MS-DOS computer. Last time I bought one was about five years ago (have been Apple since).

    Anyone purchase one recently? Want to help me be lazy and share any homework on memory, storage configurations, price, etc….

  79. Shore Guy says:

    As for Windows computers. Processing power has generally outstriped processing demand, so most machines are going to be able to handle what most people use them for. Tht said, spending money on the best graphics card, with the greatest speed, and most memory, and then adding the most RAM you can to the system will seldom be wasted.

    I would rather have a screaming video card and lots of RAM than a screaming CPU.

    Others may feel differently.

  80. A.West says:

    Dan,
    That’s not what I said at all. I haven’t been to such meetings, and I think that the media have an interest in portraying them in the worst light. I know some people that I admire who have taken part in a few rallies. But I’ve also seen depictions of leaders who blab about history but know embarrassingly little about it, or who want to bring their church into the movement. Or people who rail against government spending but don’t actually know what makes up the bulk of government spending, and thus underestimate the political challenge of cutting it.
    So as I said, I admire the sentiment, but I wonder how many people at these rallies are really in it will full understanding and for the long haul.

  81. JJ says:

    I had a row of rubber stamps in my first job, big deal. I stamp away. Funny if anyhow has ever done business with the Japanese they sometimes do “upside down chops”

    A “chop” is a rubber stamp of their signature, you read the document and you bang the chop on the ink pad and then form to approve.

    Sometime the person does not agree with it, but boss says they have to approve, so they chop upside down which means I do not agree and do not approve this document. Most Americans see an upside down signature and thing no big deal. Good luck enforcing that contract.
    dan says:
    November 1, 2010 at 1:55 pm

    From Tom:
    I don’t know why people are surprised about robo-signers. The banks rubber stamped the mortgages, why wouldn’t they rubber stamp the foreclosures?

    Good point.

  82. Shore Guy says:

    What happened to Cindy? It seems she went to OR for a visit and went poof!

  83. dan says:

    A. West,

    I can only go by what I see and not your tone:

    “I have to admit, I suspect there are a lot of ignorant people at these Tea Parties, even if I support their general thrust of less government spending, less taxation.”

  84. DuckVader says:

    Need to get an MS-DOS computer. Last time I bought one was about five years ago (have been Apple since).

    Anyone purchase one recently? Want to help me be lazy and share any homework on memory, storage configurations, price, etc….

    —————

    Best bang for buck is AMD; 4GB of memory should be fine; get a terabyte HD (or two–never hurts to back up especially if you’re storing irreplaceable pictures); graphics card — get something in the 80 range (which you can snag for about 50 if you wait); slightly more serious gaming gets you to about $120. Above that, you have to be a bit of an enthusiast. Monitor size up to you. Blu-ray writer, maybe

    My gut sense is 350-400, without a monitor and with standard DVD writer. maybe 450 depending on component quality

  85. JJ says:

    The unemployed women who co-founded tea party pays no income taxes, go figure.

    dan says:
    November 1, 2010 at 2:31 pm

    A. West,

    I can only go by what I see and not your tone:

    “I have to admit, I suspect there are a lot of ignorant people at these Tea Parties, even if I support their general thrust of less government spending, less taxation.”

  86. dan says:

    A. West,

    Sadly, we have become a nation obsessed with politics which I believe was the fall of H.R.E. People have no obligations as to how much they know, choose to know or think they know before they vote.

  87. Tom says:

    JJ,

    “I had a row of rubber stamps in my first job, big deal. “

    I was using “rubber stamped” figuratively not literally.

  88. JJ says:

    Pathmark is toast, should have died many years ago with Bohacks and Grand Union.

    A&P May Have ‘Near Term’ Illiquidity, S&P Says

    Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co. “may be illiquid in the near term,” Standard & Poor’s said yesterday while issuing a second downgrade in three months and the fourth in 16 months.

    The corporate grade is now CC.

    S&P doesn’t expect “material improvements in operating performance” and said the company will have “a difficult time paying the full principal amount of its 2011 maturities.” A&P may become illiquid even if it sells assets or obtains new financing, S&P said.

    A&P last week reported a $161.4 million operating loss for the 28 weeks ended Sept. 11 on sales of $4.48 billion. The net loss in the period was $276.3 million. Comparable-store sales declined 6.6 percent in the September quarter, which had a loss of $45 million before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. The company had $181 million of credit availability at the quarter’s end, A&P said.

    A&P’s is facing the maturity of $165 million in convertible debt on June 15. In 2012, maturities are more than $900 million, including bonds, a term loan and revolving credit, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    A&P had a $876 million net loss and an $802 million loss from continuing operations for the fiscal year ended in February, on sales of $8.81 billion. The loss from operations in the year was $600.6 million.

    The unaudited balance sheet was upside down in September, with total assets of $2.53 billion and total liabilities of $3.21 billion.

    A&P, based in Montvale, New Jersey, had 428 stores in September, mostly in New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. In addition to A&P, the brands include Pathmark, Food Emporium and Waldbaum’s.

  89. JJ says:

    figuratively not literally what is difference?

    I have had signature medalions, rubber stamps, TIN stamps blank stock powers, initials on reports, on line approvals etc. The forms I actually had so sign my full name by hand in ink and date were the ones I usually read.

    Tom says:
    November 1, 2010 at 2:35 pm

    JJ,

    “I had a row of rubber stamps in my first job, big deal. “

    I was using “rubber stamped” figuratively not literally.

  90. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Yo JJ You run across this one when you looked over JPM’s financials?

    SEC Investigating JPM, Magnetar Deal
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sec-investigating-jpm-magnetar-deal

  91. yo'me says:

    Moose
    ” You also want to bar the banks from coming back when they get their paperwork in order (“A common person that commited fraud will not be allowed to re submit proper paper work.” [17]). Which means that, if it is just a matter of who signed the affidavit and how long they spend reading the file before doing so, the only party that can foreclose is now barred from foreclosing — even if they do get their $h!t together. That sounds like all the more reason for the deadbeats to keep up the non-payment – the mortgage holder can’t foreclose! If not them, then who? ”

    That is not true.I believe the court has the last word on the issue.There will be a penalty for giving fraudulent papers and will have to answer to State AG investigation.Each States AG being independent and the case will be outside the OCC.
    The most probable settlement AG will require is bank modification of the loan.

    We really don’t have differences in our opinion aside from,you want this settled as fast so the deadbeat don’t benefit from it.I think it will take years to settle the problem and the deadbeat will go on living in this homes free until there is a court order. As always,it is always fun exchanging ideas with you.

  92. yo'me says:

    Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
    ISM Mfg Index – Level 54.4 54.5 53.6 to 55.5 56.9

    Dollar up Stocks down

  93. yo'me says:

    Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
    Construction Spending – M/M change 0.4 % -0.5 % -0.8 % to 0.4 % 0.5 %
    Construction Spending – Y/Y change -10.0 % -10.4 %

  94. JJ says:

    From Treasuries to German bunds, and corporate bonds to mortgage securities, the world’s fixed-income market is poised for its best year since 2002 as slow growth, tame inflation and record low interest rates create an almost perfect environment for debt investors.

    Bonds have returned 6.57 percent in 2010, including price appreciation and reinvested interest, a pace that would total 7.94 percent for the year, based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Index. That would be the most since the measure, which tracks more than 19,000 securities with a par value of $36.9 trillion, surged 8.92 percent in 2002. The Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 7.73 percent, including dividends.

  95. Anon E. Moose says:

    Yo [93];

    A shotgun loan mod is not a win-win solution. Suppose the POS cape was bought in 2005 for $650k. Lo and behold the deadbeats can’t make the nut in 2008, and here we are in 2010. The liquidity having drained from the punchbowl, the POS cape isn’t worth much more than $500k (~20% drop – not cataclysmic, even for this area), which is what the principal balance gets knocked down to. So the Deadbeats now get to keep ‘their’ house.

    Effectively, the Deadbeats got to ‘rent’ the house from the bank for two years, live rent free for another three, and now get to buy it for corrected ‘market’ price, all because they were too stoopid to see that it was overpriced in 2005. You know what, I knew it was overpriced at $650k back in 2005 — why don’t the AGs legilate $150k windfall for me? If the house could have been had for $500k 5 years ago, I would have had my hat in the ring. F them and the horse they rode in on.

    Not to mention all the folks who bought alongside Harry and Hilda Howmuchamonth but AREN’T deadbeats on their mortgage. Where’s their price adjustment?

    Any solution that forces the banks to confer a windfall benefit on the Deadbeats only rewards the Deadbeats mistake, at the expense of those who didn’t make the same mistake for one reason or another.

  96. Painhrtz says:

    Want to know why the Dems and Chairman O aren’t worried

    Reid repeatedly told the story of a dead woman whose husband assured him she had cast an early vote for him before expiring. “I wish I had the ability to convey to everyone here my appreciation,” he said. “I wish that I could convey with my mouth the feelings I have in my heart.” He reminded the volunteers of the short time left and said, “I look forward to celebrating with you Tuesday night.”

    if you can’t go to the polls because you are in the military or outside of the country, there is no reason for you to vote. they are the only valid reasons for an absentee ballot. They should be difficult to get otherwise.

  97. joyce says:

    (97)
    You sound really really upset. I still wonder why you blame the debtors more so than the banksters. I don’t know if it’s your intention or not, but your posts sound very arrogant as if you were the only one smart enough not to buy a few years ago AND are the only one being ‘delayed’ in buying a home. And btw, is it really a tragedy to have to rent right now?
    I’m renting…

  98. NJGator says:

    Bloomfield Mayor Raymond McCarthy is named the defendant in a civil action foreclosure complaint for his home on Whittle Avenue in documents from Essex County’s Superior Court clerk’s office that Baristanet received.

    The documents, filed March 25, say that McCarthy owes $612,035.41 originating from a $486,400 mortgage taken out in February 2006. The number increased because of interest, late charges and other charges that may vary.

    Property information for McCarthy’s home on Whittle Avenue in 2009 listed his home value at $385,500.

    When asked about the documents, McCarthy said, “I’m not going to comment on it. Enough’s enough.”

    McCarthy will be running for reelection tomorrow in the November general elections against Republican John Lazar.

    http://www.baristanet.com/2010/11/mayor-mccarthy-may-face-foreclosure/

  99. NJGator says:

    House was purchased 1993 for $190,000. From what I’ve heard, he seems to run the town the same way he apparently runs his personal finances.

    http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/m4.cgi?&district=0702&block=1383&lot=24&qual=

  100. d2b says:

    I think that people that default on their mortgages will never get ahead. There is a reason that they can’t pay their bills. I would bet that by the time they can’t pay they are woefully behind on other bills and would need years of living rent free before getting even. If they can use the free time to pull even, I do not blame them. But my experience is that people rarely take care of found money.

  101. JJ says:

    I actually don’t understand short sales at all. Why reward the buyers of overpriced homes. If homeowners want their mortgage lowered cause they overpaid for house maybe they should call sellers up and ask for some of their money back. Cause that is who has their money, the bank did not get their money. Funny part is I have a stupid POS split the owner blew out on top of my house. I know the guy is in way over his head, he bought at peak, went crazy with renovations for six months and now he does not water lawn, or fix a gutter and has a fence that fell over and bushes overgrown for a year now. I would love to buy that house cheap, that way I control new occupants and could use the garage and part of backyard for my own. I would pay cash, but this stupid short sale loan modification keeps deadbeats afloat.

  102. yo'me says:

    Moose

    “Not to mention all the folks who bought alongside Harry and Hilda Howmuchamonth but AREN’T deadbeats on their mortgage. Where’s their price adjustment?

    Any solution that forces the banks to confer a windfall benefit on the Deadbeats only rewards the Deadbeats mistake, at the expense of those who didn’t make the same mistake for one reason or another.”

    I agree with you.The system is playing the deadbeat “the victim”.It promotes Harry and Hilda to be one of the deadbeat or just like the previous article says “Are you still paying your mortgage?”The music is playing the deadbeat, dance the deadbeat.I am sure if you only can,you will be gaming the system too.The system wants to be gamed.I am still one of the stoopid paying my mortgage.My conscience still telling me you are doing the right thing.Damn I am stoopid.I could be helping the economy by spending my mortgage money.

  103. JJ says:

    How about my solution, my neighbor who married a trophy wife at peak of market who is losing home I pay off mortgage and guy becomes my slave for life doing all my chores and his trophy wife is mine to do what I please with. I only need her ten minutes a day for me, she can clean, cook, watch kids rest of time.
    Just a twenty year agreement will do it.

  104. Anon E. Moose says:

    Joyce [99];

    I am [really upset]. I’d love to know I wasn’t the only one in this country with two brain cells banging into each other c. 2005. That’s great that you rent (or maybe its not great – I don’t really think its great that I rent), but people have lots of different reasons to rent vs. own; perhaps yours are not the same as mine.

    I would really have no gripe with the banks but for the fact that they got bailed out with my quite high proportion of tax money. All the same, TARP seems to have been a one-shot deal, and with the election results tommorrow, I don’t expect the ruling class will again openly ignore the contituents’ clearly expressed wishes in such a fashion for quite some time. On the other hand, there seems to be precious little popular objection the equally odious pablum of “keeping people in their [HA!] homes”.

    That banks made bad loans to stupid people — let them take it on the chin when the deadbeats default. Life goes on. I never bought the doomsday scenarios that Wall Street trotted out in 2008, and I still don’t. But everyday in the media we are treated to another ‘ray of hope’ fore delinquent borrowers. So they hang on, and hire lawyers to fight over who signed the damn lost note affidavit, get a six-month continuance on the case and live rent free for another six months, till its time for the next tap dance.

    I am upset that I am tax disadvantaged as a renter, and my government is using my tax money to subsidize banks and deadbeats who are conspiring to prevent me from achieveing my goal of acquiring a house at a fair price according to historic measures.

    I am upset that I took seriously the [supposed] consequenses of irrational economic actions, and delayed my own gratification because of it. Meanwhile, my money is being spent to protect other who were less prudent from precisely those consequences.

    I have a few other housing related reasons to be upset, but how are those for a start?

  105. DuckVader says:

    JJ,

    Because, in theory, its both the purchaser and the lender that took the risk on the collateral, therefore, it’s for them to work out.

  106. joyce says:

    (107)
    Using your own words, I think you should have a bigger gripe with the government (and wall street). And as we all know, they are one in the same – or at least one is working for the other.

    But again, you say, “I’d love to know I wasn’t the only one…” Again with the arrogance; are you one of the 80% of the people who think they have ‘above average’ intelligence?

  107. relo says:

    Clot,

    Good luck with the new gig.

  108. Anon E. Moose says:

    Joyce [109];

    Again with the arrogance;

    Well, I kind of had the whole housing bubble thing figured out, and I have not yet been named in any foreclosure suits. I’ve got a sizeable cash reserve just waiting for sanity to return to the housing market (hoping against hope that Helicopter Ben doesn’t detroy its value via the printing press before I can use it).

    In light of that, objectively speaking, I’m pretty confident that I’m financially ahead of a deadbeat with no cash and his anem on the deed of an underwater house.

  109. chicagofinance says:

    She gave up on the blog. Too negative and extreme for her tastes. It longer provide any net-net enjoyment.

    84.Shore Guy says:
    November 1, 2010 at 2:27 pm
    What happened to Cindy? It seems she went to OR for a visit and went poof!

  110. dan says:

    Clot,

    While I understand that Aussie/New Zealand may become the hot wines for the next decade or two, what form of payment will you be accepting? I don’t think many yet are ready to pay in metals/weapons. Oh, I see, you’ll be paying the Aussies in worthless currency so it doesn’t matter.

  111. Fabius Maximus says:
  112. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [56] hyde

    That story was a bit of a headscratcher until I saw this:

    “The overall cost for the security is $1 million, paid for with federal funds designated for administration of the unemployment system, Lotter said.”

    Use it or lose it.

  113. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    OT ALERT:

    Randy Moss waived by the Vikings.

    Every time I think Belichek let someone go too early, I wind up being wrong.

  114. Outofstater says:

    How about we just let the MARKET in everything WORK? Can’t pay your mortgage? Fine, you’re foreclosed and evicted. Fraud problems with the loan? Fine, work it out in court. You’re a bank and you’re insolvent? Great. Fail. Let the FDIC bail out the insured depositors and the rest can eat dirt. Counter-party risk? Oops. They all fail too. Anyone else too big to fail? Tough. You’re toast too. Pension funds kaput? Take less and shut up already – there is no money. Jesus. When will people understand that THERE IS NO MONEY, THERE IS ONLY DEBT???
    PS: Too much merlot followed by too much Halloween candy is NOT a good idea.

  115. Confused In NJ says:

    Running out of options, Fed prepares to jolt economy
    By Zachary Roth

    Much of the media’s attention is focused on Election Day. But another event Tuesday could have a far greater effect on the one overriding issue that looks likely to lead to major Republican gains.

    The Federal Reserve, at a meeting of policymakers Tuesday and Wednesday, is poised to take dramatic steps to jolt the economy awake. With Ben Bernanke and Company running out of conventional tools to address the slump, the moment is one of the most crucial since the downturn began nearly three years ago.

    The Fed has already pumped money into the economy by buying over $1.7 trillion worth of Treasury bonds, but this week it’s expected to announce an additional $500 billion purchase, and may indicate a willingness to buy more.

    Some analysts see pitfalls to the move. “The greatest risk for the Fed in taking this action is that it could extend the economy’s funk by giving a sense that either no one is in charge or that the people who are in charge can’t get it right,” David Shulman of the UCLA Anderson Forecast told the Washington Post. “The whole psychology of that could leak back into the economy.”

    And if the Fed overshoots, it could produce the same kind of bubbles that helped get us in the fix we’re in now.

    But the downsides of not acting may be greater. Unemployment is currently stuck around 9 percent, and the economy isn’t growing fast enough to raise it. Meanwhile, inflation, at around 1 percent, isn’t high enough to encourage consumers to spend money.

    In fact, some think the Fed isn’t thinking big enough. Larry Meyer, a former Fed governor now with Macroeconomic Advisers, recently argued it will take more than $5 trillion worth of bond purchases to jolt the economy. Fed leaders have said that’s too risky.

    But it’s not clear what options they’d have if this week’s expected action fails to stimulate sufficient growth and bring down the jobless rate. Some analysts, including Daniel Gross of Yahoo! Finance, argue that monetary policy can only do so much. They say that the nearly trillion-dollar stimulus measure passed last year wasn’t enough, and that Congress and the Obama administration should act again with additional spending.

    With Republicans poised to make gains Tuesday after a campaign that stressed the need to cut spending, that looks unlikely

    The 5 Trillion figure would be consistent with the 2012 prediction, maybe the Donkey’s will win?

  116. borat obama says:

    First

  117. borat obama says:

    I hate decamp buses

  118. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Well, today was the day that the Third quarter expat report was due, and, surprise, no report.

    It isn’t coming out before polls close tomorrow, so I can skip tomorrow and Wednesday.

  119. Lamar says:

    He (92)-

    Anytime you see the word, “Magnetar”, lots of bad things come after it.

  120. Lamar says:

    JJ (106)-

    You are indeed a man born at the wrong time. The 14th century would’ve been prime time for you.

    “How about my solution, my neighbor who married a trophy wife at peak of market who is losing home I pay off mortgage and guy becomes my slave for life doing all my chores and his trophy wife is mine to do what I please with. I only need her ten minutes a day for me, she can clean, cook, watch kids rest of time.
    Just a twenty year agreement will do it.”

  121. NJGator says:

    borat 120 – You are not alone.

    http://www.ihatedecamp.com/

  122. Lamar says:

    relo (110)-

    Thanks. I’m going to need it. Slack demand isn’t just confined to housing and cars. It’s ubiquitous.

    My biggest challenge isn’t going to be selling wine. It’s going to be determining which potential clients are actually insolvent.

  123. Lamar says:

    moose (111)-

    This is not a bet I would be making. Sanity will not return to the housing markets in our lifetimes, and the USD is about to take the penultimate buggering.

    “I’ve got a sizeable cash reserve just waiting for sanity to return to the housing market (hoping against hope that Helicopter Ben doesn’t detroy its value via the printing press before I can use it).”

  124. Al Gore says:

    “There’s no silver bullet right now,” and central bankers have “very few options left in terms of lowering interest rates,” said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. He predicted $500 billion of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases over the next six months. ”
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-01/fed-likely-to-announce-500-billion-of-purchases-survey-shows.html

    If this comes true I’ll be happy. The key being not only the purchase of treasuries but also MBS’s. That should get us to 3.75 on the 30 year.

    Its a win win.

    1. Metal will continue its climb
    2. Refinance into a lower rate aiding my amortization schedule by almost 10 years and putting a few extra bucks in my pocket.
    3. Who cares about the stock market but it should be enough to prevent a blow out.
    4. Export more inflation to the rest of the world.
    5. System still collapses in the end. End the Fed.

  125. Lamar says:

    dan (113)-

    The Aussie is reliably and unnervingly strong, as it’s one of the few world currencies actually backed by something other than skittles and flivver dust. I’m a little unnerved that the USD (predictably) is being crushed by the AUD and about to likely take another pulverizing kill shot soon.

    OTOH, Australia has rampant environmental problems in the SE, and their housing bubble is more rocket-fueled (and therefore, even more likely to implode with the force of a supernova spinning out of control) than ours at its peak.

  126. Al Gore says:

    128.

    Lamar,

    I take you are a big history guy. I think you would enjoy the writings of Martin Armstrong. He happens to be bullish on the AUD.

    http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Show%20Me%20The%20Money%2010-15-2010.pdf

  127. Fabius Maximus says:

    #128 Clot

    And they have the 3rd best game in the world.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qh5hNY83UA4

  128. Fabius Maximus says:

    Oh ….. by the way Soccer is number 2 and this is number 1.

    15 a side with sticks, and its legal to hit.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmzivRetelE&feature=related

  129. Lamar says:

    al (129)-

    All the great men are either in jail or dead.

  130. Lamar says:

    gluteus (131)-

    I’m hooked. Please tell me this sport has a culture of heavy drinking associated with it.

  131. Fabius Maximus says:

    #133 Clot
    Its Irish, what did you think!

    Guinness is NOT consider carb loading!

  132. Lamar says:

    Gonzalo Lira is crankier than me.

    “That’s the kind of pernicious, despicable bullshit Krugman pulls on his readers on a regular basis: He throws a rock, then hides his hand. He says the fiscal deficit necessary to finance the Second World War was the best thing that ever happened to the American economy—then has his fluffer, Brad DeLong, get all mock-outraged when someone points out that Krugman seems to be suggesting that a big-ass war would be good for the American economy.

    Now, I called Krugman out on his lies about World War II fiscal indebtedness in my post, “Why Paul Krugman Is An Imbecile—or a Fraud” I took apart his “1938 is 2010” post quoted above, showing how Krugman had played fast-and-loose with the data, twisting it very subtly in order to support a conclusion that could not be supported by any other means except deception.

    But then, in my later post, “Why I Despise Krugman”, when I pointed out that Krugman is consistently arguing for war as a means to salvage the U.S. economy, I got an earful from Brad DeLong. (Krugman himself wrote a post in response to me, called “Economics Is Not A Morality Play”—a post of a truly shocking level of arrogance and conceit, not to mention moral torpitude.)

    DeLong wrote me an e-mail with the lines (I am here quoting verbatim), “Have you no decency, sir? Have you no decency?”

    Actually, I do: That’s why I’m pointing out the contradiction in DeLong’s various hissy fits. He threw a hissy fit at me, for correctly inferring that Krugman is calling for war to solve America’s fiscal problems. Then he threw another hissy fit at David Broder, whose sin was that he said explicitly what Krugman is too cowardly to say flat out.

    Poor Brad DeLong: The lonely life of a fluffer is filled with such curious contradictions. He has to defend Krugman for advocating war as an economic solution—while castigating Broder for advocating war as an economic solution.

    Poor Brad DeLong: Such is the fate of a man who deliberately decides to be the submissive sidekick to a stronger yet immoral star like Krugman. There’s nothing wrong with being the sidekick—so long as you maintain your integrity. But you can’t maintain your integrity by being the sidekick of a nihilistic liar like Krugman. And the thing is, poor Brad can’t break from Krugman at this point: His entire reputation depends on the K-ster Monster of Princeton Junction. Poor Brad is locked into his fate.

    Poor Brad DeLong: It’s actually not much fun for me to mess around with him—because I know that no one will defend him. Krugman certainly won’t. Guys like Krugman use their fluffers to get them hard—but then pretend they can’t help them when they run into trouble, like poor Brad DeLong has now.

    Poor Brad DeLong: Sad, sad, sad little fluffer. Pump, pump, pumping away.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gonzalo-lira-highlights-contradictions-life-keynesian-fluffer

  133. Lamar says:

    So the Irish have: Joyce, no snakes, great culture, the best pubs, cuter girls than they’ve ever gotten credit for, hurling and a shambolic Third World economic trainwreck.

    Can’t have it all.

  134. Fabius Maximus says:

    #136 Clot

    And the infrastructure was paid with 90c on the Euro dime. Most of the best was exported, but they will still send back.

    The big point here is who will get caught if they go under or start playing hard ball. There are a few F50o trying to play a long game.

  135. Confused In NJ says:

    “O” is changing the National Symbol from an Eagle to a Skunk. Can’t blame him, it fits better with the current government.

  136. Pat says:

    Nomad
    Depart : HAMILTON at 6:07 AM
    Board : Train 3914 toward NEW YORK PENN STATION
    Arrive : NEW YORK PENN STATION at 7:09 AM

    Walk 0 mile to NY Penn Station
    Fare Regular Child/Senior/Disabled
    Bus $0.00 $0.00
    Rail $15.00 $6.75
    Transfer Fee $0.00 $0.00

    Total $15.00 $6.75

  137. Pat says:

    Anybody know how to debug google mail prior to 24 hours if the problem is not excessive mail download or cache/history?

  138. safe as houses says:

    first

  139. Shore Guy says:

    Nom,

    If they are trying to hide it, the IRS will release the report on election day. On Wed, all eyes will be on the election results. With the fallout of the election sucking the air out of the room the rest of the week.

    Face-to-face, I can tell you an interesting story about this exact thing.

  140. Shore Guy says:

    The next best time to hide it is tthe Wednesday before TG.

  141. Shore Guy says:

    Chifi,

    If you are in contact with her, please send my regards.

  142. safe as houses says:

    second first

  143. Lamar says:

    Cindy never could embrace the oblivion.

  144. Lamar says:

    Great. I can’t sleep, and I end up reading this:

    “After German blog “All is Smoke and Mirrors” floated an idea of an organized bank run (something attempted previously in the US without much success) in France in response to French austerity protests which resulted in absolutely nothing, the effort has since expanded to a pan-European organized bank run day, and has metastasized to Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom and Greece. We are confident that very soon the rest of Europe, which is currently gripped in a climate of extremely unpopular austerity, will join in this symbolic protest against banking, which unlike the US, may just succeed, considering the European banking system is in total shambles, and in far worse shape than its American counterpart. Since virtually all actions in 2010 by the global central banking cartel have been geared toward stabilizing the European banking system which continues to wobble on the edge of a systemic collapse precipice, perhaps the marginal withdrawal of a few billion in deposits could be just the straw that forces a reset first in Europe and shortly thereafter, in the rest of the globalized developed (and shortly thereafter, developing, proving what a joke the whole concept of decoupling is) world. As America has demonstrated so very well, 25 weeks of consistent withdrawals from domestic funds (sorry CNBC, there have not been inflows yet) have resulted in a quarter in which bank earnings were simply said crushed. Had Americans followed through and withdrawn their deposits from banks it would have been the final straw. Luckily, the lack of organization among the US population gave the US banking system a reprieve. In Europe things are different: banks are not as reliant on trading, however, they are far more reliant on a stable deposit base. Therefore, even a partially successful withdrawal campaign could have far more dire consequences on the continent’s banking, and bring the financial system to its knees.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/december-7-unofficial-pan-european-bank-mutiny-day

  145. still_looking says:

    You aren’t the only insomniac…

    Good luck with the wine businesss at least you’ll have fun trying them out… next GTG – wine, beer and food tasting!

    sl

  146. still_looking says:

    No news from the pit… same old, same old there.

    Still working on house…husband ran into mom of kid at school who told him, “Oh we looked at that house but it was in too much disrepair for us…” [tee hee hee….] We had a good giggle over that.

    sl

  147. still_looking says:

    All-Hype,

    Mr. Fishy is officially in a new tank… complete with heater, fake plants, and lots of space. A year and a half ago, that fish was an inch long and one of those stupid (meant to be dead) novelty fishes from Ag Field Day…

    Who knew a fish could be so entertaining… at least it’s not [ahem] coral :)

    sl

  148. brilliant idea It gave me a lot of knowledge today.thank you

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