Can they bring the jobs back?

From Bloomberg:

New Jersey lawmakers focusing on jobs, economy

New Jersey lawmakers will soon focus their attention on legislation aimed at creating jobs and keeping businesses from leaving the state.

Budget committees in both the Senate and the Assembly will meet five times this month to discuss various measures. The first sessions are scheduled for Wednesday, followed by sessions Dec. 14-16 and Dec. 22.

Senate President Steve Sweeney and Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver announced their “Back to Work NJ” legislation package last month, after Gov. Chris Christie again lambasted the Legislature for failing to approve key property tax stabilization measures that he proposed.

The package of roughly 30 bills includes measures to revise business tax codes, expand a business retention grant program and allow unemployed people to train with a potential new employer without jeopardizing their benefits. Another bill would create a loan forgiveness program for students who pursue jobs in fields with marked labor shortage.

The measures will likely be debated and voted on through January.

From New Jersey Newsroom:

New Jersey’s business climate: Still not good

New Jersey’s business climate is horrible, thanks to onerous regulations. But it’s getting ever-so-slightly better. In one recent poll indicating how business-friendly the various states are, New Jersey climbed from 50th to 48th

That was the message of several panelists at the 2011 Business and Financial Roundtable on Nov. 30 at Ramapo College.

Panelist John Galandak (pictured), president of the Commerce and Industry Association of New Jersey, said that he was “cautiously optimistic” about the economy, even though widespread uncertainty has kept employers from hiring.

“New Jersey has a history of being business-unfriendly,” he went on. “It’s a high-cost state.”

Still, Galandak said, the new administration in Trenton seems to be trying to “undo the costly regulations.”

Deborah Howlett, president of New Jersey Policy Perspective and former director of communications for Gov. Jon S. Corzine, said that the economy’s recovery will probably be gradual: “Everyone’s looking for a sign” of recovery before committing.

As for or the disappearance of manufacturing jobs here, she said it meant that the state was shifting to more white-collar jobs.

She expressed skepticism toward business subsidies, arguing that “There are more efficient ways to create jobs.”

This entry was posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

117 Responses to Can they bring the jobs back?

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. Nomad says:

    December 7th…

  3. Mike says:

    Ran into my neighbor this morning getting into the car (another one like me up at an UnGodly hour) he just wanted to tell me he’s retiring at the end of this month and moving down to Virginia where he’s having a house built. Paying $8500.00 on a 2 1/2 bedroom home makes no sense to him.

  4. grim says:

    From the Record:

    No deal yet between Christie, N.J. Dems on property tax ‘tool kit’

    After an hour and 40 minutes of meeting with Governor Christie, Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver and Senate President Stephen Sweeney walked out of his office Monday in good spirits but without a deal to pass his “tool kit” measures to help towns control property taxes.

    “We’re a work in progress. The good thing is that we are talking and sitting down,” said Oliver (D-Essex).

    The “tool kit” is designed to help municipalities meet a 2 percent property tax cap that takes effect in January. Christie and the Democrats have butted heads on the two biggest pieces: arbitration and civil service reform.

    Christie has called for a hard 2 percent cap on raises in salaries and benefits in arbitration awards for police and firefighters, but Democrats want to exempt pension and health benefit costs and let the bill expire after three years to examine its effects.

    Two officials with knowledge of the governor’s stance said Christie is willing to allow the pension and benefit exemptions, but not for any other forms of compensation.

  5. grim says:

    Quick snippet from the Star Ledger:

    Four key reform issues tied to N.J. property tax cap

    Municipal governments spent a total of $11.96 billion in 2009, according to the Department of Community Affairs. County governments spent another $6.13 billion in 2009, the state reports. Local school boards spent $24.68 billion in 2009, more than the other two combined. And the three local levels combined are spending nearly 50 percent more than the state, which is operating under a $29 billion budget this year.

  6. grim (4)-

    These guys shouldn’t worry. When the rolling municipal defaults and BK filings begin, it’ll take care of all that stuff.

    Getting elected to office at that point will be easy, too. Be the candidate who promises to go the BK route, and win by a landslide.

  7. “Bernanke is a man with 100% confidence who did not see the housing bubble, who did not see a recession, whose worst case scenario for unemployment was 8.5% when it was already over 8%. Bernanke cannot find his ass with both hands and a roadmap, yet he is one hundred percent certain about his ability to control things.”

    – Mish

  8. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Just opened a listing (5bd,5ac,built 87) on the hot sheet 510 dom over 100k price reduction & still 100k over priced at 415 . You could get nicer , newer for 300 do people even bother to look at the competition. If they are waiting for this market to turn around it is going to be a long long walk.

  9. Essex says:

    Mike? Mike in Waiting? Anyhow. Aside from the who’s who. I thought one of ya’ll fellas was gonna pull the trigger on a place some time ago.

    More take home pay? Less $$$ for Washington. Me Likey. Thanks President ‘wimp’….tee hee….here’s to checks and balances!

  10. Mike says:

    Not me Essex

  11. Essex says:

    Cool.

    I wonder as I wander. –Langston Hughes.

  12. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “Bernanke cannot find his ass with both hands and a roadmap”

    Lamar,

    Worse than that; he does not know the difference between liquidity and solvency.

  13. JJ says:

    Look for uncommon indicators – interesting theory to see how your town is doing.

    Less straightforward measures can help bondholders understand the ultimate health of a community. Gibb likes to use U-Haul(UHAL) rate comparisons as a barometer of local markets: If rates for a one-way move from Detroit to, say, Atlanta, are much higher than the other way around, it’s because Detroit is losing residents and not getting new arrivals, he says. And that affects property taxes, sales taxes and income taxes, the lifeblood of the steadiest municipal bonds. Similarly, a local mall closure, for example, will directly affect a sales-tax-backed bond, says Fabian.

  14. Mike says:

    Big realtor convention in AC at the Sheraton this week , “Where the posessed come to mingle”

  15. Thundaar says:

    14-Mike
    Every Realtor I talk says what a “great year they had”…liars…I shudder to say that I am a Realtor as well….and have been since 2005. The convention in AC has gotten smaller and smaller every year…………Half of the exhibitors at the show sell jewlery, scarves, toys, etc….what a joke.

  16. AG says:

    I wonder what Blythe Masters is doing.

    30.62

  17. JJ says:

    Here is my realtor question, a neighbor, recently divorced from some shlep of a guy, kinda she took care of herself nice I meclothes, good body, make-up and in shape and he is like pot bellied with a ratty sweatshirt from HS. Anyhow, she is single, now if I a guy was to buy a house from her and there is like 60K commission on the line and the guy is days away from signing and just needs a push what does a single 40 something hot realtor with a short skirt to do like her. Make some type of promise ooohh I will stop by your new house, let get coffee etc, what if the guy basically without saying it out loud expects her to at least throw him a roll in the hay. I mean realtors are hard up for sales. Are there any ethics involved? I mean me if I was a divorced guy selling RE and all it took was a little hold the nose and go south of the mouth on some 49 year old women to get 60K in commission what the heck. I mean you can’t really get fired. In fact you are more likely to get fired if you don’t make commission, plus who knows it might start bringing in more business.

  18. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    JJ:
    What the hell happened to your Jets last night? They took worst beating of season on national TV. Your loud mouth coach got schooled by the Grinch. Guess ticket prices wil go down a bit, even in the expensive sections.

  19. AG says:

    17.

    JJ,

    A reasonable assumption for that kind of commission.

  20. Fabius Maximus says:

    #18 ALL Hype

    Tom Brady stole the Joe Namath Mojo when he signed his endorsement deal for man UGGs

  21. chicagofinance says:

    clot: Maybe you were right……..
    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6B62IE20101207

  22. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    Clot

    Accident???

    The Bank of Ireland said it became aware at 1000 GMT on Tuesday that ATMs were not working and customers were unable to make online transactions.
    A spokesperson said the fault had been largely rectified. However the amount of cash that can be withrdrawn via ATMs may be restricted.

  23. The Chairman says:

    http://www.newgeography.com/content/001911-i-opt-out-california

    “I have elected my own personal protest, California style. I have decided to OPT-OUT of California to protest my overgrown state government. I am tired of California legislators sticking their hands in my pants to pay for the European style social welfare state they have created. My work, my earnings and my taxes will go elsewhere.

    I am one of those evil “high-earners” in California with income over $200,000 per year.

    My next home will be in a no state income tax state like Texas or Nevada. I will not buy that new Jaguar that I was planning to purchase for $75,000. I will keep my old Cadillac and deprive Sacramento of $6,562 from its 8.75% sales tax. My next purchase for my real estate business will be an office building in Prague in the Czech Republic, a democracy that has lower taxes and fewer regulations. “

  24. safe as houses says:

    #23 The Chairman

    California is well on its way to Brazilification.

  25. Punch My Ticket says:

    grim [136 last thread],

    What prevents you from breaking the cartel?

  26. Bystander says:

    What happened to Cantona’s bank run this morning? Another non-event. Time to admit that the bank politicos win again. Crisis averted. Americans have no will to stop this consumption/debt game. Rest of the world leaders are hooked into our capitalist grid. Time to buy overpriced sh*tboxes and accept that some other generation will solve our problems.

  27. grim says:

    #26 – Isn’t creating awareness a step towards that?

    My last political action was annoying (lobbying?) commissioner Steven Goldman and director Terry McEwen over a few month period when the State Department of banking was dragging it’s heels on adopting the new CSBS subprime guidelines in 2006.

    I take some pride in the fact that the dozens of emails we traded back and forth may have facilitated the adoption of those new guidelines and perhaps saved a handful of borrowers.

  28. Juice Box says:

    re: #22 – Could be an accident or POed employees who might be getting pink slips for the Holidays, however the Bank of Ireland is taking several weeks to send a check here for a withdrawal, after writing them several times and calling several times.

    Wanted the money before any kind of major currency event but alas procrastinated too long. Ireland’s 2011 austerity budget is supposed to pass today if it does not look out below for the Euro.

  29. Confused In NJ says:

    Banks to Taxpayers: Get Over It
    by David Weidner

    Moral hazard is the payoff of Fed’s emergency lending
    In the throes of an investor panic in the fall of 2008, U.S. financial institutions stuck to their story: We’re fine, trust us.

    Last week, more than two years later, the Federal Reserve unveiled how those same financial institutions tapped emergency lending programs to survive. The final tally — $3.3 trillion in loans — exceeded even the most skeptical analyst expectations.

    The Fed had been hesitant to release the data for fear it could rattle the markets. But the markets actually rose on Wednesday, the day of the release. I have a theory why, which we’ll get into later.

    The disclosure tells us a lot about how dire the situation was in the darkest days of the credit crisis, but it also tells us some important things about today’s banking landscape: It’s fragile, it’s built on faith — and a lot of extraordinary backing.

    The phrase “zombie” banks comes to mind when the numbers are laid bare: Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS – News) borrowed $61 billion in one overnight loan. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS – News) hit up the Fed 81 times for a combined $600 billion. Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C – News) and Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC – News) borrowed a combined $2.6 trillion under the Fed’s primary dealer facility.

    Even J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM – News) used the central bank’s term auction facility seven times.

    Oh, and the banks’ way of saying thanks for all of this: Get over it.

    $1.9 trillion for Morgan Stanley

    Most banking institutions aren’t only downplaying the drastic measures they took to keep the doors open day to day by suggesting it’s all ancient history. They’re arguing that what happened then has no bearing on what’s happening now.

    In other words, just because they were hiding their wounds then, doesn’t mean they’re hiding anything now.

    Well, consider that in the fourth quarter of 2008 Goldman reported a loss of $2.12 billion. During that period, the bank borrowed $589 billion from the Fed in overnight loans. Yet, look at the press release announcing the fourth-quarter and annual results. Goldman makes no mention of its desperate borrowing. Instead it touts the fact it was profitable for the year. That loss? Well, it was just a tough quarter. See Goldman’s fourth-quarter 2008 earnings release (pdf).

    And when Morgan Stanley’s John Mack was arguing in September 2008 that his firm had more than $100 billion in assets to ride out a potential run on the investment bank, he didn’t mention that the bank was borrowing tens of billions from the Fed each night, ultimately tapping the central bank for more than $1.9 trillion, including the brokerage’s foreign units. See story on Mack statements.

    Today, the banks are giving us more positive statements. On Monday, B. of A. announced it has nearly met all of the obligations to exit the government’s bank bailout program. Nineteen banks, including J.P. Morgan, will undergo another stress test so they can pay out more dividends to shareholders. See story on B. of A. bailout.

    The lesson: disclosure

    If’s difficult to tell if the banks’ swagger today is justified. Many have raised capital requirements, and in the case of brokerages such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman, we’ve been told risk is diminishing and proprietary trading desks are being reined in or sold off.

    Moreover, the Fed’s disclosure covers only the emergency programs it launched as the credit markets froze. It doesn’t cover today’s lending. We’re told leverage is falling at these banks, but the Fed’s lending rates are still near zero. Cash is cheap.

    If there’s a lesson to be learned from the Fed’s bombshell, it’s that a lack of disclosure usually means there’s something to hide. In this case, we found out Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS – News) and UBS AG (NYSE: UBS – News) also borrowed, a disclosure that irked Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont Independent, who called the aid “astounding,” and bristled at the notion banks weren’t asked by the Fed to rebuild the economy.

    “How many Americans could have remained in their homes,” asked Sanders, in The Progressive. “if the Fed required these bailed-out banks to reduce mortgage payments as a condition of receiving these secret loans?” Read Sanders’ comments on Fed aid.

    It would have been a better question had it been asked at the time. Unfortunately that gravy train has long since left the station.

    The only reason the Fed even released the information was because Sanders inserted language into the Dodd-Frank bill that required the Fed to come clean. And now it’s pretty clear Fed officials were reluctant about going public.

    So, back to that earlier question about why the markets didn’t flinch. Two reasons: first, it was just too late. The program shut down in early 2009. The market has been rallying. Emergency lending? Ancient history. Second, I think the numbers were so eye-popping they just didn’t sound real. It’s one thing to rattle the markets, but another to go shock and awe.

    That’s too bad, because if anything, the disclosure underscores how easily the banks can talk as if there’s a little rain and wind as the hurricane crashes ashore.

    “We’re fine, trust us,” just isn’t good enough anymore

  30. Just a blow-by-blow description of the ass-r@ping we took in 2008.

  31. I really hope to see the day when Bergabe, Eraserhead, Dimon, Blankfein, et al are all tried for treason and then put to death for their crimes.

  32. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    Lamar [32],

    Add: SEC fraud, money laundering, coercion, perjury and stock manipulation; just to name a few.

  33. ricky_nu says:

    ok – I don’t have an axe to grind, but I can’t stand seeing article like those in #30 where they completey inflate numbers and twist statistics. I have no argument that banks borrowed a lot of money when the crap was hitting the fan. I also don’t argue that they would have probably failed without such a facility.

    But to tally up the loan totals they way they do in the article is idiotic. If I borrow $10 milion for 10 days, I did not borrow $100 million, I borrowed $10 million for 10 days. To sum up each daily balanace is stupid. Under those guidlines my $300k mortgage is actually me borrowing $3.285 billion over 30 years.

  34. Mike says:

    Thundar Number 15 The people I know that are just going to drink their sorrows away.

  35. Anon E. Moose says:

    Submitted for the board’s approval:

    Lamar [122- prev. thread]:

    …not a practical, ethical or even balanced response to such a situation.

    Lamar [33 – today]:

    I really hope to see the day when Bergabe, Eraserhead, Dimon, Blankfein, et al are all tried for treason and then put to death for their crimes.

    Practical, ethical and balanced, indeed.

  36. JJ says:

    U.S. exits Citigroup stake, earns $12 bln profit

    Where are all the people on this site from October 2008 through April 2009 who were bashing bailout of Citi?

  37. Juice Box says:

    re #37 – JJ BAC should be out of TARP any day now as well. If you are gonna be a Bank Bull then pony up for 100k shares of Citi and 20k shares on BAC and ride those bulls all the way up….

  38. Punch My Ticket says:

    JJ [37],

    25% in two years. Woohoo. That’s adequate compensation for the risk run.

    What a freaking joke.

  39. nwnj says:

    Print a few tril to get back $25B, great deal.

  40. JJ says:

    Still have Citi and BAC bonds. I did unload a lot of them already though. I don’t want to buy more. However, in the next three weeks I expect a firesale on Muni Bonds, although higher interest rates are on their way, this is still a fire sale as there is a huge rush to issue BABs that often are attached to tax exempts. With an ilquid market come Christmas and a rush to issue I want to take advantage. Since I am too long, longer term bonds I am sticking to 1-7 years . Hopefully, I can pick up like 100K of bargains between now and year end. Then come Jan/Feb, I am looking to do 100k this time maybe stock funds and high dividend stocks or perf stocks. The market is headed higher. The cash is how long will it last and when will rates actually rise, if you go to short in bonds, and Ben is right and unemployment is a long term issue it could be five years of earning nothing which makes the hit you take to your long term bond six years from now less meaningfull.

    The market is awash in a sea of cash. Housing was a giant sucking hole sucking up cash for investments, now that real estate is dead the new cash needs to find a new home

    Juice Box says:
    December 7, 2010 at 1:01 pm
    re #37 – JJ BAC should be out of TARP any day now as well. If you are gonna be a Bank Bull then pony up for 100k shares of Citi and 20k shares on BAC and ride those bulls all the way up….

  41. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    JJ [37],

    What about the $300B govt guarantee for troubled assests? Let’s call them legacy assets. Oh, forgot, we just transfer to the fed, forget about the $300B and claim a profit. Scam.

  42. JJ says:

    Zero risk. Remember, this is magic money. Issue two year bonds at 1/2 of 1 per cent interest and lend it out at 12.5% interest. 12% spread risk free no money out of pocket.

    Even more important the taxes Citi pays and the taxes on the salaries it pays plus the huge cost to medicare, unemployment or welfare if a couple 100K citi workers got let go all at once, and oh yea the bankruptcy of the FDIC as they could not cover the claims. Plus the contagion risk would have wiped out a few other major banks. Lets see make 25% profit or lose one trillion dollars and cause the great depression.

    Choice was a simple as take a pill and live or die of cancer.

    Punch My Ticket says:
    December 7, 2010 at 1:06 pm
    JJ [37],

    25% in two years. Woohoo. That’s adequate compensation for the risk run.

    What a freaking joke.

  43. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    JJ,

    The govt shoul erect a bronze statue of Ken Lay on Penn Ave..

  44. JJ says:

    Only the bailouts of CIT and Chrysler were flops. The rest not so bad.

  45. JJ says:

    Citi Field, Queens, N.Y.

    The New York City Industrial Development Agency issued $87 million in tax-free bonds with a 5% yield in 2006 to help finance the construction of Citi Field, the new home of the Mets. In February, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s cut their ratings to junk status, and according to reports at the time, the Mets said it was exclusively a bond insurance issue. But the bond payments do depend on revenues from pricey premium seats and luxury boxes, as well food and parking sales, and investors can’t help noticing shrinking crowds at Citi Field. In its 2009 inaugural season, attendance dropped 22% from the year before, then another 19% in 2010, according to Major League Baseball. The club, which did not return calls for comment, has lowered many regular ticket prices for next season.

  46. Confused In NJ says:

    WASHINGTON (AP) — The government says Bank of America’s securities division has agreed to pay $137 million to settle allegations by federal and state authorities that it made illegal payments to win business from towns and cities looking to invest proceeds from municipal bond sales.

    The Securities and Exchange Commission and other regulators announced the settlements with Banc of America Securities.

    The securities unit agreed to pay $36 million in restitution to settle the SEC’s civil fraud charges and $101 million to other federal and state authorities. The company neither admitted nor denied wrongdoing in agreeing to settle.

    The SEC says Banc of America Securities paid undisclosed fees and kickbacks to municipal officials in return for the investment business.

    The agency is investigating corruption in the industry for investing municipal bond proceeds

  47. Juice Box says:

    JJ – CIT common is way up this year, and look at the talent they are attracting.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/CIT-Appoints-Raymond-J-bw-1213373084.html?x=0&.v=1

  48. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    Confused,

    how about a fine equal to 150% of all profits made from said transaction along with jail time for the executive that was involved? It’s a good thing “justice is blind” in the US.

  49. Confused In NJ says:

    43. Choice was a simple as take a pill and live or die of cancer.

    I think Patrick Swayze, Michael Landon & Steve McQueen took their pills and died anyway from Pancreatic Cancer.

  50. Confused In NJ says:

    50.Schrodinger’s Cat says:
    December 7, 2010 at 1:41 pm
    Confused,

    how about a fine equal to 150% of all profits made from said transaction along with jail time for the executive that was involved? It’s a good thing “justice is blind” in the US.

    How about actual prosecution (no settlement allowed) right through to the municipalities getting kickbacks. Fines should be against the people, not the Corporation or Municipality. The Fines can be 100% of the Net Worth of all Corporate or Municipal Employees involved.

  51. JJ says:

    CIT took Tarp declared BK gave companies to bond holders issued new stock and never paid by govt. The are doing great cause unlike Citi they got Tarp and did not have to pay it back.

  52. relo says:

    52/50: Whoa, we all know that the public servants and municipal workers involved are disadvantaged by their occupation relative to the private sector and these payments merely closed the gap.

  53. relo says:

    42: Ha, what was the guaranty fee charged?

  54. Juice Box says:

    re #53 – JJ – think we discussed this before that $2.3 billion, went to the vast network of Dunkin Donuts franchises CIT was financing. How would you and the rest of America get your coffee served to you by illegal aliens from India if they did not get TARP?

    Take the blue pill, where the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe.

  55. JJ says:

    AHHHH so that is how DD is offering ten medium coffee booklets for ten bucks.

    Juice Box says:
    December 7, 2010 at 1:58 pm
    re #53 – JJ – think we discussed this before that $2.3 billion, went to the vast network of Dunkin Donuts franchises CIT was financing. How would you and the rest of America get your coffee served to you by illegal aliens from India if they did not get TARP?

    Take the blue pill, where the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe.

  56. chicagofinance says:

    You can’t change the criteria for judgement in hindsight. At the time there was bile spilled due to a perceive handout of cash. In reality, it was a handout of credit quality. Now the cash has been returned. People should then shut up. Was the use of robust credit worthwhile (yes/no)? It is a thought provoking question, but not relevant to the ex-ante decision.

    39.Punch My Ticket says:
    December 7, 2010 at 1:06 pm
    JJ [37], 25% in two years. Woohoo. That’s adequate compensation for the risk run.
    What a freaking joke.

  57. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    OOPS;

    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) – The Treasury Department sold $32 billion in 3-year notes /quotes/comstock/31*!ust3yr (UST3YR 0.82, +0.13, +18.23%) on Tuesday at a yield of 0.862%, with only tepid demand from investors on a day when yields were rising. “The results were slightly disappointing considering the backup in rates,” said strategists at RBS Securities. Bidders offered to buy 2.91 times the amount of debt sold, the lowest bid-to-cover ratio since February. At the last four monthly sales of the securities, bidders offered to buy an average of 3.18 times. Indirect bidders, a group that includes foreign central banks, purchased 36.7% of the sales, right in-line with the average of recent sales. Direct bidders — which includes domestic money managers — bought another 18%, higher than the 13.3% average. After the auction, the broader bond market extended its losses, pushing yields in the opposite direction. Yields on benchmark 10-year notes /quotes/comstock/31*!ust10y (UST10Y 3.11, +0.18, +6.25%) rose 19 basis points to 3.12%, the highest since at least July

  58. JJ says:

    I was the only voice of reason back in late 2008 and early 2009 and assured everyone on this board the govt should lend to Citi and we all should buy long term citi bonds when they were yielding 16% as there were as solid as the US Treasury bonds.

    chicagofinance says:
    December 7, 2010 at 2:06 pm

    You can’t change the criteria for judgement in hindsight. At the time there was bile spilled due to a perceive handout of cash. In reality, it was a handout of credit quality. Now the cash has been returned. People should then shut up. Was the use of robust credit worthwhile (yes/no)? It is a thought provoking question, but not relevant to the ex-ante decision.

    39.Punch My Ticket says:
    December 7, 2010 at 1:06 pm
    JJ [37], 25% in two years. Woohoo. That’s adequate compensation for the risk run.
    What a freaking joke.

  59. Juice Box says:

    re #58- Chicag0 cumon now passing on the Moral Hazard to the taxpayer is the issue not the return of or the return on capital.

    No punishment for failure and large rewards for both success and failure? What kind of crazy world do we live in now where there is 3.7 Quadrillion of side bets placed annually under the table or over the counter on failure?

    Something has to give, it can’t always take the little blue pill and you will be fine. (referencing #30)

  60. Punch My Ticket says:

    chifi [58],

    I’m not changing anything in hindsight. Buffett was handing out cash in late 2008 too but not to end up with 12% a year. The feds should just have seized Citi (and I said so at the time). They were on the hook for it anyway and they would have gotten all the upside instead of this pittance.

    I’ve thought for a year that Clot was too negative but the obamadeal yesterday on top of the euro fiasco has convinced me. Put a fork in us all.

  61. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    I’m not changing my tune. Whether the entity was a commercial bank, IB, monoline insurer, etc…, they should have been put into receivership, clean up the balance sheet, fired management, wipe out the shareholders and spun out any proceeds. Let the bondholders take the haircut, not taxpayers. It would have been very painful but we would have been better off in the long run.

    We have printed trillions, created a free carry trade, marked non performing loans to par and transferred trillions of dead assets to the fed. Yet, we claim to have made a $12B profit. All we have done is create paper to paper over paper. None of the underlying structural problems have been addressed. Actually, they have only gotten worse.

    In the meantime, after running printing presses 24 hours a day, we still can’t create real sustainable jobs and housing continues to spiral into the toilet. A $12B “profit”? If it wasn’t so sad it would be comical.

    Got demand?

  62. Shore Guy says:

    “, they should have been put into receivership, clean up the balance sheet, fired management, wipe out the shareholders and spun out any proceeds. Let the bondholders take the haircut, not taxpayer”

    Amen, brother.

  63. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    Someone sent this to me a few months back. I’m not sure who wrote it, no link.

    “It all reminds me of three-card monte scam on a blind man called public and retail private money. Public money was quickly used to pay the OTC winners. Then, FASB’s critical decision to look the other way allowed worthless, illiquid assets to be valued at cost. This simple accounting entry converted losses into trading profits, which in turn, provided the necessary earnings for the stock market bounce. In addition, and probably more important, the earnings not only supported one last dip into the well of bonus distribution but also the issuance of stock in which the proceeds were used to repay TARP ahead of schedule. Don’t you remember those surprise announcements on F-TV?”

    “Now the market stands around waiting for the cards to be reshuffled on the table for the next game. When the cards are turned over they will reveal currency debasement as the historically consistent solution to an excessive debt burden by a sovereign nation.”

  64. JJ says:

    Citi is said and done. I do find it interesting that no one every talks abot GMAC, they took a ton of Tarp money never paid it back. For any of us with a Fidelity account we can all see they issued an insane amount of bonds between 2000-2008, tons of something called “smartbonds” to individual investors in 1k increments in new issues with no commission to buy and if held to maturity no commission to sell, many in five year maturities. Most had a POD feature, payable on death, just present death certificate and you can cash in early with no penalty. GMAC 30 year bonds had a coupon of 8%. Many a widow bought the 30 year bonds figuring I locked in 8% coupon to live off and when I die my children just sends a death certificate to broker and get paid back 100% principal. These GMAC smart notes which are very low teir debt insturments never defaulted and when govt injected huge amounts of funds in the form of perf shares it moved them up the ladder in a BK at smartnotes are a level above pref shares.

    GM bond holders got slammed. But the widow who stupidly put 100K of her retirement money in 30 GMAC smartnotes in 2005 at 8% coupon has already cashed 40K in interest payments, locked in 8% to the day she dies and looks like since Uncle Sam wiped out Cerebus’s ownership and injected funds at a lower tier than smart notes and their is an IPO down the road is pretty much guranteed to get back their principal. This was a huge bailout of widows, chilren and orphans the intended holders of smartnotes.

    Is the bail out justified as the people who benefit are pretty much old or unsopisticated investors, no rich fat cat shareholders involved as only Cerbus and GM owner any shares of GMAC and they were wiped out as part of the TARP payment.

  65. JJ says:

    GMAC has offered as much as $15 billion in SmartNotes since 2007 to mid 2008.

    GMAC, in late 2008 had $160 billion in debt outstanding,

    Lots of interest. I say average coupon is 6%, Just in last two years that is a huge chunk of change. No haircut for bondholders. All interest payments to be paid.

  66. chicagofinance says:

    You are one vote….the “should have been wiped out” classes have many more votes than you. While you state pure logic and financial theory, the vitriolic spew is so tone deaf that people ignore the message…….

    65.Mr Wantanapolous says:
    December 7, 2010 at 3:04 pm
    I’m not changing my tune. Whether the entity was a commercial bank, IB, monoline insurer, etc…, they should have been put into receivership, clean up the balance sheet, fired management, wipe out the shareholders and spun out any proceeds. Let the bondholders take the haircut, not taxpayers. It would have been very painful but we would have been better off in the long run.

    We have printed trillions, created a free carry trade, marked non performing loans to par and transferred trillions of dead assets to the fed. Yet, we claim to have made a $12B profit. All we have done is create paper to paper over paper. None of the underlying structural problems have been addressed. Actually, they have only gotten worse.

    In the meantime, after running printing presses 24 hours a day, we still can’t create real sustainable jobs and housing continues to spiral into the toilet. A $12B “profit”? If it wasn’t so sad it would be comical.

    Got demand?

  67. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “Is the bail out justified as the people who benefit are pretty much old or unsopisticated investors”

    JJ,

    No, they take a haircut also.

  68. JJ says:

    How dare you question the right for me to earn 27% year interest for the next ten years on my smartnotes!!!
    Actually, Smartnotes is an interesting case study, the senior bonds owned by insitituions were offered a swap at 60% on a dollars pre-bail out while smartnotes were not offered the swap and smartnotes fell to like 15 cents on a dollar, a ton of insitiutions tendered at 60 cents on a dollar meanwhile the bail out came and they would have got par, the little guy in smartnotes will get par. Hooray for the little guy.

    Mr Wantanapolous says:
    December 7, 2010 at 4:15 pm

    “Is the bail out justified as the people who benefit are pretty much old or unsopisticated investors”

    JJ,

    No, they take a haircut also.

  69. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    Chi [70],

    Doesn’t change my tune. By the way, I ususally like being just 1 vote; it tends to pay dividends.

  70. JJ says:

    Chifi, greed is good. AIG, GMAC, CITI, BAC etc. it is irrelevant how I feel about bail out. The goal is to make money. If the IRA issued kill the queen bonds at 15% interest and I felt I would get paid back and make money I would invest.

    I bought BP bonds while the oil was spewing. Cant wait for next special situation

    chicagofinance says:
    December 7, 2010 at 4:09 pm

    You are one vote….the “should have been wiped out” classes have many more votes than you. While you state pure logic and financial theory, the vitriolic spew is so tone deaf that people ignore the message…….

  71. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    Chi [70],

    Putting them into receivership and blowing out management/shareholders and bondholders is wiping them out.

  72. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “greed is good AIG, GMAC, CITI, BAC etc. it is irrelevant how I feel about bail out”

    JJ,

    No argument with that.

  73. dan says:

    Yup, we saved the banks and destroyed the economy but hey we got our investment back!!!!!!

  74. moose (36)-

    You present these as if they are mutually exclusive concepts. All those banksters- and more- deserve to be at the business end of a firing squad…AND, it is ALSO not justified for banks to commit crimes in response to their customers’ breaches of contract.

  75. punch (36)-

    I guess jj isn’t familiar with the concept of malinvestment, either.

  76. #79 was to #39, not #36.

  77. JJ says:

    I heard that term a lot lately, here is a good example.

    My mom and dad lent me the downpayment to buy a house in 2006 with no interest. Now I can’t pay them back and the bank wants to bk on me.

  78. jj (43)-

    When you say things like this- then I remember that you’re a Wall St. BSD- I throw up in my mouth a little.

    Please inform me which semester of Harvard Bus. School they introduce the concept of “magic money”. Or, are Bergabe’s successors at Princeton the only ones who adhere to this idea?

    “Zero risk. Remember, this is magic money.”

  79. chi (58)-

    Agree with you on the robust credit handout thingy. Would still argue that it was a massive malinvestment. As BC noted, 300 bn in rotten fish legacy assets all secreted into Bergabe’s dumpster makes it all look like what it was: the biggest bank robbery in US history.

  80. juice (62)-

    If you want to stay up all night, just remember that 70% of those side bets are based on interest rates.

    “What kind of crazy world do we live in now where there is 3.7 Quadrillion of side bets placed annually under the table or over the counter on failure?”

  81. punch (63)-

    Too negative? They won’t stop until they’ve destroyed us all. The gubmint hasn’t even begun to rob and oppress us to the extent of their abilities.

    “I’ve thought for a year that Clot was too negative but the obamadeal yesterday on top of the euro fiasco has convinced me. Put a fork in us all.”

  82. Juice Box says:

    Point of this whole thread is Jobs right?

    Well the bailouts worked for some, the rest get government cheese for 99 weeks.

    Here is a nice Jobs Chart. Bull Market here.

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/JTU5200JOR

  83. relo says:

    Re: Citi,

    I am ecstatic about the outcome. When should we expect our checks?

  84. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Ok id like some specifics on how they are calculating the cost basis there. There sare alot of moving parts to that bailout although it sounds great. Yay we’re rich again. Everyone paid back the baikouts yet national debt went from 3 to 8 trillion . Weird.

  85. Shore Guy says:

    If anyone here is using an Android phone, in particular Samsung’s Galaxy, I would appreciate your thoughts onthe OS and the phone.

  86. Shore Guy says:

    “Everyone paid back the baikouts yet national debt went from 3 to 8 trillion ”

    Ignore the man behind the curtain

  87. Fabius Maximus says:

    #92

    Should that not be “going from 10T in 2008 to 13.8T in 2010

  88. Essex says:

    Man alive. I’ve been selling everything that isn’t nailed down on eBay. Problem is that I buy crap to. Latest is from a retard in NC. Geezus. There should really be an IQ test to sell on eBay. Or to breath. Just saying.

  89. Essex says:

    Make that….buy crap. TOO. (typo) ironic I know.

  90. Essex says:

    BTW. How long do we have to tolerate the US Postal service? Can’t we let that moronic bunch end up in the trashbin of history and move on already???

  91. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Yep, 50% increase in natl debt from 2007 to 2010 but we made billions on the bailouts, which have all been paid back in full.

    Nat’l Debt by year
    09/30/2010 13,561,623,030,891.79
    09/30/2009 11,909,829,003,511.75
    09/30/2008 10,024,724,896,912.49
    09/30/2007 9,007,653,372,262.48
    09/30/2006 8,506,973,899,215.23
    09/30/2005 7,932,709,661,723.50
    09/30/2004 7,379,052,696,330.32
    09/30/2003 6,783,231,062,743.62
    09/30/2002 6,228,235,965,597.16
    09/30/2001 5,807,463,412,200.06
    09/30/2000 5,674,178,209,886.86
    09/30/1999 5,656,270,901,615.43
    09/30/1998 5,526,193,008,897.62
    09/30/1997 5,413,146,011,397.34
    09/30/1996 5,224,810,939,135.73
    09/29/1995 4,973,982,900,709.39
    09/30/1994 4,692,749,910,013.32
    09/30/1993 4,411,488,883,139.38
    09/30/1992 4,064,620,655,521.66
    09/30/1991 3,665,303,351,697.03
    09/28/1990 3,233,313,451,777.25
    09/29/1989 2,857,430,960,187.32
    09/30/1988 2,602,337,712,041.16
    09/30/1987 2,350,276,890,953.00
    09/30/1986 2,125,302,616,658.42

  92. Perversion to Mean says:

    Yeah, me too on the phone rec.

    I can’t see the numbers on my phone and the web is like three inches wide. Time for an upgrade.

  93. Perversion to Mean says:

    Essex, PUS and DefEx use the regular PO for a lot of delivery services.

  94. Essex says:

    99. I know. As do I. For some reason though they still suck wind.

  95. Shore Guy says:

    Gator,

    When you replaced your Treo, what did you get, and have you since moved on?

  96. Confused In NJ says:

    Obama will solve part of the National Debt Crisis by outsourcing the military to China.

  97. Shore Guy says:

    Confused,

    Isn’t there an app for that?

  98. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Can we assume that the remainder of the unaccounted for bailout debt is in the stock market?

  99. Fabius Maximus says:

    #97 NeEcon

    Intersting run of numbers. Shows how compounding is a b1tch.

    13% 2009-2010
    19% 2008-2009
    10% 2007-2008

    50% 2007-2010

    but to put some perspective in
    49% 2003-2008

  100. Neanderthal Economist says:

    (Reuters) – U.S. government inflation data is “a sham” and is causing the Federal Reserve to vastly understate price pressures in the economy, influential U.S. investor Jim Rogers said on Tuesday.

    The U.S. central bank uses inflation data that relies too heavily on housing prices, Rogers told the Reuters 2011 Investment Outlook Summit, and he criticized the Fed’s $600 billion bond-buying program.

    Rogers, who rose to prominence after co-founding the now defunct Quantum Fund with billionaire investor George Soros some four decades ago, said he was betting against U.S. Treasuries. “I expect interest rates in the U.S. to go much, much, much higher over the next few years,” he said.

    The core personal consumption expenditure index, which removes food and energy costs, is the Fed’s favored measure of inflation and was flat in October for the second straight month.

    “Everybody in this room knows prices are going up for everything,” Rogers told the Reuters Summit.

  101. Fabius Maximus says:

    “Hypocrisy in anything whatever may deceive the cleverest and most penetrating man, but the least wide-awake of children recognizes it, and is revolted by it, however ingeniously it may be disguised”

    Look who’s a judicial activist now
    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1210/46027.html

  102. chicagofinance says:

    clot: but it’s posted collateral…..it eventually get returned to the owner for cash, no? The whole point is that the window was open when all other windows were closed….but the rotting garbage will be returned to its rightful owner….

    Lamar Asperger says:
    December 7, 2010 at 4:45 pm
    chi (58)- Agree with you on the robust credit handout thingy. Would still argue that it was a massive malinvestment. As BC noted, 300 bn in rotten fish legacy assets all secreted into Bergabe’s dumpster makes it all look like what it was: the biggest bank robbery in US history.

  103. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Year Nat Debt % of GDP
    2000 58
    2001 57.4
    2002 59.7
    2003 62.6
    2004 63.9
    2005 64.6
    2006 65
    2007 65.6
    2008 70.2
    2009 86.1
    2010 93.2

  104. chicagofinance says:

    Note: AIG, BAC, C, GMAC et al are a different story…

  105. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Hey since we make so much on bailouts, maybe we can make it a full time gig?
    Help the taxpayer bring in some revenues, pay down some of this here debt.

  106. Fabius Maximus says:

    #109 Ne Econ

    Is that that against Nominal or Real GDP?

  107. chi (108)-

    Two forms in which the rotting fish collateral could be returned:

    1. At par. As if.

    2. Marked-to-market. John Q still loses.

  108. I guess Cantona’s bank run didn’t hit critical mass today.

  109. I’d like to make the first call for 2011.

    QE3 will come hard and fast- perhaps before the expiration of QE2 in June…and it will involve buying every piece of NY, CA and IL muni debt in sight.

  110. We are now a nation comprised of 50 Irelands.

Comments are closed.