Why 30? Why subsidize?

From the WSJ:

What’s So Special About the 30-Year Mortgage?

One remarkable feature of the current debate in Washington about the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is the prominence given to one kind of mortgage—the 30-year, fixed-rate loan. The proponents of a continuing role for government in housing finance are going from office to office on Capitol Hill arguing that, without government backing, American homeowners will not have access to this particular loan. Many legislators believe that the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is good for homeowners and good for the government to support as a matter of policy.

There are two questions to ask. Is it true that this loan will only be made to homeowners if the government stands behind it? And is government support for this particular kind of loan good policy?

The idea that government backing is required for a 30-year, fixed-rate loan has some surface plausibility. Many people who don’t follow the financial markets might assume that lending money for that long a period at a fixed rate would be too risky for the private sector.

Anyone can prove this assumption is wrong, however, simply by going to Google and typing in “30-year jumbo fixed rate mortgage.” The word “jumbo” is mortgage market jargon for loans that are too large to be bought by Fannie or Freddie, or insured by the Federal Housing Administration. That means a jumbo mortgage is not backed in any way by the government. But a Google search will return dozens of offers. In other words, government backing is not necessary in order to make this loan available to homeowners.

When confronted with this fact, proponents of government mortgage guarantees will argue that these jumbo fixed-rate mortgages—because they don’t have government backing—are more expensive than those available from Fannie and Freddie.

This is true. The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages offered by Fannie and Freddie are somewhat less expensive (recently about .5%) than those offered by banks and others without government backing. But that is only because the taxpayers are subsidizing this loan. That subsidy is hidden most of the time, except when—as now—Fannie and Freddie become insolvent and the taxpayers’ subsidy becomes all too visible.

So, one might ask: Is this kind of mortgage loan such a good deal for homeowners that it makes policy sense to have the taxpayers take the losses that inevitably seem to flow from government guarantees? The answer is clearly no.

This brings us to the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage. This loan amortizes principal very slowly. It is popular because it maximizes the benefits of the mortgage interest tax deduction and keeps the homeowner’s monthly payment low. But it also means that homeowners accumulate equity in their homes very slowly. Most of the monthly payments are interest (very little is principal) for many years.

Following the enactment of affordable housing standards for Fannie and Freddie in 1992, mortgage underwriting standards deteriorated in this country. As I argued in my dissent from the recent report of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, it seems to have been a deliberate policy of the Department of Housing and Urban Development to reduce mortgage standards and down payments in order to assure that mortgage credit was available to a wider section of the U.S population. By the late 2000s, more than one-third of all new mortgages had down payments of 3% or less. Here, too, homeowners have very little equity in their houses at the outset. And building equity takes longer in the case of 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages.

We should have no objection, of course, if homeowners want this type of loan. That’s certainly their right. The question is whether the taxpayers should subsidize them.

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180 Responses to Why 30? Why subsidize?

  1. grim says:

    From the NYT:

    Bet on Foreclosure Boom Turns Sour for Investors

    David J. Stern may be the best-known beneficiary of the foreclosure boom, having made millions in recent years from evictions processed by his law firm, the largest of its kind in Florida.

    But when he took part of his firm public early last year, he had plenty of help from a constellation of investors also looking to cash in on people losing their homes.

    Early in 2010, the back-office processing operations of Mr. Stern’s law firm were converted into a publicly traded company called DJSP Enterprises.

    Mr. Stern pocketed nearly $60 million from that transaction, public filings show. Behind that big-money deal was a curious cast of characters, including some with previous run-ins with regulators.

    Other parties included a small Wall Street investment bank headed by a former presidential candidate, the retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark, and a little-known private equity firm based in New York.

    Even before the DJSP windfall, Mr. Stern enjoyed a lifestyle that featured grand mansions, flashy sports cars and a yacht called Misunderstood.

    But the days of easy money are over for Mr. Stern, his law firm and DJSP investors.

    As the Florida attorney general’s office continues to investigate whether Mr. Stern’s law firm falsified documents in order to speed up foreclosures, the firm has lost its biggest clients, including Citibank and Fannie Mae.

    Many of DJSP’s executives have left the company, and it has laid off about 80 percent of its 1,200 employees. Meanwhile, investors in DJSP are not doing any better.

    Shares of the company, which were worth $14 apiece last summer, trade now for about 50 cents on the Nasdaq exchange.

  2. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    On Street, Pay Vaults to Record Altitude

    When it comes to paychecks, Wall Street’s law of gravity is back in full force: What goes down must come back up.

    In 2010, total compensation and benefits at publicly traded Wall Street banks and securities firms hit a record of $135 billion, according to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal. The total is up 5.7% from $128 billion in combined compensation and benefits by the same companies in 2009.

    The increase was fueled by a revenue rebound as the financial crisis recedes in the rearview mirror. At 25 large financial firms that have reported full-year results, revenue rose to $417 billion, another all-time high, even though last year’s 1% increase was just a fraction of the industry’s revenue jolt from 2008 to 2009 as trading and investment banking sprang back to life.

    “Things are shifting back to where they were before,” said J. Robert Brown, a law professor at the University of Denver who studies compensation and corporate-governance issues.

  3. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  4. grim says:

    From the Washington Post:

    Low rates driving more ‘cash-in’ refinances

    A record number of homeowners are kicking in cash when they refinance their mortgages, in most cases to qualify for interest rates that are now near historic lows, mortgage financier Freddie Mac reported this week.

    In the fourth quarter, 46 percent of borrowers who refinanced their primary mortgages brought cash to settlement to lower the balance on their loans, Freddie Mac said. That’s the highest share of “cash-in” refinances since the company started tracking the numbers in 1985.

    Borrowers, in essence, are buying peace of mind about their debts by moving to more affordable mortgages and, according to the firm, coming out ahead by using cash that’s earning little interest in the bank to realize significant savings on their monthly loan payments.

    “It turns out to be an easy calculation for many people,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

    The trend marks a sharp reversal from the days of the housing boom, before the mortgage meltdown. Back then, people pulled cash out of their homes to pay for vacations and other expenses. The deals peaked in 2006, when an estimated 86 percent of prime borrowers with non-government- backed loans cashed out a record $318 billion.

    The cash-out deals fizzled out when home values plunged. Last year, borrowers cashed out only $32 billion, the lowest volume since 1997 when adjusted for inflation, Freddie Mac said. By contrast, cash in refinances have climbed every year since 1997.

  5. grim says:

    Yikes! Sorry but this is just terrible advice..

    From the Philly Inquirer:

    Why buying gold may be better financially than buying a house

  6. still_looking says:

    Pain,
    re: yesterday (Rush)

    Yes! I don’t know how I missed the post –

    Funny thing is about the Grtst Hts is, I had never heard songs from 2112. Initially used to skip over them then listened to them, then really liked them. Hubby had 2112 on CD so I now can hear the whole thing (will later today – the rest of the still_lookings are sleeping.)

    sl

  7. safe as houses says:

    #2 Grim

    Record # of people on food stamps and long term unemployment, record pay on the street, everything must stay in balance.

    Hey, those high paying twits always boasted about all the jobs they create. I always wondered what jobs do the traders and salesman create besides domestic help positions and landscaping.

  8. still_looking says:

    grim,

    Is now a good time for us to refinance our loan?

    sl

  9. serenity now says:

    Re#5 Gold vs House –
    Care to elaborate?

  10. grim says:

    #9 – Is it really any different from 2005, when every rag in the USA told the sheep they’d get rich buying houses?

  11. safe as houses says:

    #10 grim

    Are you going to launch a njgoldreport blog too? :)

  12. grim says:

    Hell, even the comparison to housing seems like a disingenuous way to elicit speculative excitement.

    Just like in 2005, the comparison was the stock market to houses. Yeah, yeah, you lost your fortune trading in dot com stock, but you can make it right back by trading houses!

  13. grim says:

    Are you going to launch a njgoldreport blog too? :)

    Nah, I’d rather talk about what kind of appliance finish is going to replace stainless as the new MUST HAVE when the next boom comes around.

    My money is on custom matched paint. Especially after I saw my autobody friend painting a set of Viking appliances an almost liquid looking candy apple red with pearl flake.

  14. serenity now says:

    OK Grim I see where you are coming from.
    I thought perhaps you were suggesting that Real Estate had corrected
    to a point that it may actually be attractive as some sort of investment or
    hedge.

  15. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Grim. Between the headline article and #5 you’re already on fire today.

  16. grim says:

    I’ve got a thing for orange, now if I could only justify a $10,000 oven..

    http://www.turbochef.com/residential/shared/img/dgma-gallery-lg-4.jpg

  17. carlie says:

    Decision time as I can’t take living w/ the rents anymore-do I buy the bikable to the beach w/ a k-8 rating of 8 that needs a 70k construction on kitchen and outdated baths on a busy road backing to a cemetary 325 deep lot, or the 3 mile to beach ranch with a k-5 blue ribbon w/ a full finished basement, 2 fireplaces, managable new IG pool on a dead end street with a rabbit hole in the middle if the kitchen down to the fabulous basement and only 1 wall of kitchen including appliances and counterspace-small-but open and vaulted floor plan-same 400k price range in SE monmouth county. You guys are my holy grail right now-I know I know……

  18. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    January Planned Job Cuts Lowest on Record

    Planned layoffs in January rose from the month before, but were still the lowest planned number of cuts for that month on record, according to outplacement company Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

    Companies planned to eliminate 38,519 jobs last month, up 20 percent from December, but down 46 percent from the year-ago period.

    The number of cuts for a January is the lowest since Challenger started its survey in 1993. January is historically one if the biggest months for layoffs, the company said.

    “It is not unusual to see job cuts increase in January,” CEO John Challenger said in a statement. “In fact, 2011 marks the fifth consecutive year and the tenth out of the last twelve in which January job cuts surpassed the December total. What made this January figure so unusual is that it was so low.”

    “Even in the 1990s, when annual job cuts were relatively low, January still averaged more than 74,000 job cuts,” John Challenger said.

  19. grim says:

    Anyone got the over/under on the ‘hog this morning?

  20. 30 year realtor says:

    The hog saw shadow inventory, but no shadow.

  21. freedy says:

    About 15% of all americans on Food stamps. (snap) just about says it all

  22. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    Lucent sells 194-acre tract in Morris County; future of Holmdel site uncertain

    HANOVER — The 194-acre Alcatel-Lucent property sold for $18.5 million in December to a pair of investment and development partners, and the township is eager to work with the new owners to have the empty research campus buzzing with activity again, officials said.

    The owners and township officials envision a mix of office, retail, multifamily and senior housing uses on the site, which had an assessed value of more than $97 million before Alcatel-Lucent began ending operations there in 2008.

    http://www.app.com/article/20110201/NJNEWS/110201109/Lucent-sells-194-acre-tract-Morris-County-future-Holmdel-site-uncertain?odyssey=nav|head

  23. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    And Hanover needs more RE development????

  24. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. Jan. ADP employment up 187,000

    Private-sector employment rose 187,000 in January, according to Automatic Data Processing Inc.’s employment report released Wednesday. Employment in the service-producing sector rose 166,000, while employment in the goods-producing sector rose 21,000. For December, ADP reported that private payrolls gained 247,000, compared with a prior estimate of 297,000. On Friday, the government will report on January’s nonfarm payrolls, which also include government workers, and economists polled by MarketWatch are looking for a gain of 140,000, and for the unemployment rate to rise to 9.5%.

  25. grim says:

    #23 – Just what this state needs, lets replace high tech research jobs with crappy townhouses, retail, and senior housing…

    Oh bother. No worries though, the site is positively buzzing with activity!

  26. grim says:

    Saarinen’s masterpiece should be bulldozed. We’re not worthy of it anymore.

  27. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    if the government got out of the housing market prices would drop in short order. Mortgage terms ( length) would probably shorten as well with 15yr being more common then 30 yr and interest rates going as well as down payments going higher.

    In my opinion that would be a good thing.

  28. Painhrtz says:

    13 Grim match your heloc’d appliances to your heloc’d porsche I could see that happening

  29. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Grim 26 Short sighted idiots, see ratables to increase their coffers. The spice must flow.

  30. grim (20)-

    The hog will come out of his hole and kill himself.

  31. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    Punxsutawney Phil did not seen his shadow.

  32. cat (23)-

    I like that the writer of that article wrote “Eero Saaringen”, and no editor (assuming that rag even has editors) caught it.

    Just like the ignorant teaching the ignorant, we now have the illiterate writing for the illiterate.

    Doom is nigh.

  33. cat (32)-

    Little does he know he lives in an existential shadow of death.

  34. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    Mike

    Unfortunately The rateable spice doesnt increase intelligence and expand consciousness like the mythical spice melange.

  35. grim says:

    I am simultaneously loving and hating Christie this morning..

    From the Record:

    Three top utility authority managers arrested on misconduct charges

    Three top-level managers at the Passaic Valley Sewerage Commissioners were charged Tuesday with using sewer employees as their own “personal handymen,” by ordering them to make repairs on company time to their homes and the homes of friends and relatives.

    Investigators from the state Attorney General’s Office arrived at the PVSC treatment plant in Newark on Tuesday morning and arrested Anthony Ardis, 56, of Paterson, the clerk of the PVSC, who makes $214,198 annually and is the highest-paid employee of the sewer agency. Also arrested were Kevin Keogh, 45, of Roseland, the superintendent of special services (salary: $186,201) and his assistant superintendent, Chester Mazza, 69, of Totowa ($127,276).

    All three were terminated on the spot and led away in handcuffs, charged with official misconduct, a second-degree offense that is punishable by up to five years in prison. They were taken to the Passaic County Jail, where they spent several hours being processed before each posted $75,000 bail and was released.

    From the Star Ledger:

    Casino project resumes with $261 million from N.J.

    After a two year delay, construction will resume next week on the Revel Hotel and Casino in Atlantic City thanks to a $261 million boost from the state, Gov. Chris Christie announced yesterday.

    “The state will put its efforts and its credibility and its money where its mouth is,” Christie said in the shell of the hotel’s lobby, where he signed bills that will deregulate Atlantic’s City gambling industry in an attempt to breath new life into a resort facing competition from surrounding states.

  36. Mubarak takes a smart pill and sends his thugs out to battle the protesters.

    Anytime we discuss the Muslim world, we should always remember that the likely outcome to any event is the most violent, insane and heartwrenching one possible.

  37. J. says:

    Grim #13: If I wait long enough, will Harvest Gold come back?

  38. grim says:

    If I wait long enough, will Harvest Gold come back?

    Doubt it, Formica was pushing it’s re-release of Boomerang hard, didn’t stick, everything but gray was discontinued. However, AGA does make a cooker that has a similar color, and that thing is like 15 grand, so maybe I’m wrong. Personally, my money is on avocado.

  39. gary says:

    Included in the Governor’s $100 million figure was a reduction of $75 million in aid to New York City’s schools, a move that Schools Chancellor Joseph A. Fernandez has said could force him to lay off thousands of teachers.

    But…. but…. what about the children?

    http://tinyurl.com/6eontx8

  40. gary says:

    Union leaders vowed a bitter fight against both the layoffs and the mandatory furloughs. “Jettisoning thousands of dedicated state employees is not the answer to these fiscal problems,” said Rand Condell, president of the 60,000-member New York State Public Employees Federation.

    LOL! Ok Rand, whatever you say!

  41. grim says:

    Don’t get me started on those stupid AGA things either. Did you know they don’t actually turn off? The oven and burner heater core is shared, and runs 24/7. Burns an astronomical amount of gas, and it’s like a space heater. In the summer your AC needs to fight the additional heat load generated by it. This is the most un-green thing I’ve ever seen in my life. Might as well burn coal in it (yes, they have that option too).

    And at $15,000?

    Made for a bunch of suckers.

  42. Mikeinwaiting says:

    There is a waste of 261 mil, Christie should know better. AC is toast PA and the Indians took their lunch, it ain’t coming back. Deregulate the gambiling industry in NJ, that should work out well.

  43. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Grim AGA thing? 15k oven I suppose.

  44. NJToast says:

    #42 – Suckers indeed Grim but you know you have to impress the neighbors. $15k for an oven, maybe she is compensating for something like the husband who owns (but has not a clue how to drive) a Porsche?

  45. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Gary know some good ones know some bad ones. Beef is stuck with the bad. The money is just not there, can’t understand what the unions want the state to do. Talk about paying for medical or pay freezes they go ballistic.

  46. ditto says:

    AGAs were fine when they were coal-burning and in draughty old British farmhouses a 100 yrs ago, but thats were they should’ve stayed.

  47. jamil says:

    40, ” a move that Schools Chancellor Joseph A. Fernandez has said could force him to lay off thousands of teachers”

    but what about the children??

    This article may be of interest here:

    “The Associated PRess
    NEW YORK — The number of city teachers yanked from their classrooms because of accusations of wrongdoing has doubled in four years, and some spend years collecting their salaries while awaiting disciplinary hearings, a newspaper reported Sunday.
    Their pay costs the nation’s largest public school system an estimated $65 million a year, not including the cost of hiring substitutes or renting space for the so-called “rubber rooms” where accused teachers spend their work days, the Daily News reported.
    Accused of offenses ranging from excessive lateness to sex abuse, an average of 700 teachers at any given time read magazines, play cards and nap in the “rubber rooms” — officially, Temporary Reassignment Centers, the newspaper reported. It cited city data.
    As of Jan. 29, one teacher accused of sexually abusing a child had been assigned to a rubber room for five and a half years, the newspaper said. The average accused teacher waits four months for investigators to decide whether to bring formal charges. If they do, it takes an average of nine more months for a hearing and another six months for a decision.
    School officials said teachers are pulled from classrooms only if evidence suggests they are dangerous to children, and state laws and teachers’ contract rules make it difficult to speed the disciplinary process.
    “I’m not sitting here telling you that I think this is an ideal system,” said the city Education Department’s chief lawyer, Michael Best. “We’re in a situation where we need to balance our obligation to safeguard children with our legal obligation for fairness to teachers.”
    Teachers union president Randi Weingarten called for swift investigations, saying the so-called rubber rooms were “demoralizing, horrible places.””

  48. chicagofinance says:

    Truly excellent…..

    30 year realtor says:
    February 2, 2011 at 8:25 am
    The hog saw shadow inventory, but no shadow.

  49. homeboken says:

    Want to fix AC? Here is a cost free way to do it. Allow gambling on sporting events.

  50. Mikeinwaiting says:

    CAIRO — Several thousand supporters of President Hosni Mubarak, including some riding horses and camels and wielding whips, attacked anti-government protesters Wednesday as Egypt’s upheaval took a dangerous new turn.

    Guess he couldn’t get the army on board so went old school, described as “crazed cavalry charge” by Al-Jazeera reporters on the scene. Cavalry in 2011 who would a thunk. But then again great for crowd control.

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41383377/ns/world_news-mideastn_africa/

  51. Mikeinwaiting says:

    homeboken should have done that yesterday.

  52. Painhrtz says:

    Mike revolutions ar efun until the other side starts fighting back. Ask the Iranians

  53. homeboken says:

    Someone explain to me why I continue to live in NJ and commute to NYC? The weather is blows in the winter, 90% of the beaches are crap during the summer, it is expensive as hell, we are taxed like crazy, etc etc. It is the exact opposite of rational decision making. It should cost way more to live in Florida, where the weather is nice, there is no state income tax etc. What am I doing here?

  54. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    mike 51

    Calvary charges are fairly easy to break up. What do you think pikeman were for. The best part is pikeman need very little skill to break up a disorganized Calvary charge

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/81/Pike_square_img_3653.jpg/800px-Pike_square_img_3653.jpg

    All they need is some long sharpened poles

    Some caltrops would have been particularly effective as well. Heck if the mounts arent used to loud noises, a few boxes of blackcat type firecrackers could stand a chance at breaking the charge up.

  55. Mike says:

    Grim Number 36 With a half million in salaries combined you would’nt expect them to pay for their own home repairs? At least Norton from the Honeymooners took much pride working in the sewer.

  56. Shore Guy says:

    “The Hog”

    He now goes by the name P. Phil. He did not see his shadow this morning because he was chillin’ in his crib with his posse watching latest Oak Tree Crew video on hos 99inch plasma.

  57. nj escapee says:

    Homeboken, 54, My real estate taxes are $1,230 / yr.

    Forecast: Key West FL
    Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.
    Tonight: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. East wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%.
    Thursday: A slight chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%.
    Thursday Night: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. East wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%.
    Friday: A slight chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. Southeast wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%.
    Friday Night: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
    Saturday: A slight chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 76. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

  58. Shore Guy says:

    Boken,

    You must stay for the culture and the friendly people who all glow with joy due to their proximity to Manhattan.

  59. Shore Guy says:

    Nje,

    What are the basic stats on your place?

  60. nj escapee says:

    Shore, stats?

  61. Shore Guy says:

    Rooms, square footage, lot size, etc.

  62. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Cat I read that some of the protesters had knifes attached to wooded poles, disorganized protesters, disorganized cavalry recipe for bloodshed.

  63. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Boken 54 JOB?

  64. nj escapee says:

    I have owned sine 2000. Fee simple town house 800 sf, kitchen lr, 2 brs, 1.5 ba, front and back porches, lot is approx 20×90 metal roofs, hardee siding, built using post Andrew specs. Facing the golf course 8th hole over the mangroves. Really beautiful grounds, nicely landscaped. HOA fees have been stable throughout the implosion. There are 10% currently in arrears. HOA management is very aggressive and successful in getting it’s money from those properties

  65. Shore Guy says:

    What do units tend to go for? How is the Navy and Airport noise?

  66. Shore Guy says:

    I wonder if Mubarak ever read Ten Days That Shook the World?

  67. homeboken says:

    Mike – Aside from the fact that my employer is HQ’d in Manhattan, there is zero reason why I can’t do my job anywhere. In fact, I am in the Midwest, TX, CA, and AZ about 12 weeks out of the year anyway.

    I thought I was just being grouchy b/c of the poor weather, but I am really starting to question it. The real reason is probably more “this is where I grew up and where my family is located.”

  68. nj escapee says:

    You can probably pick up a small unit like mine for under 200k on a short sale. There are some units that are in the 1300 – 1500 sf range as well. I installed impact windows which greatly reduces noise from the f18s. That really helps as I work from home all day. I mean if you’re outside it’s no big deal. It’s the sound of freedom :)

  69. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Housebound with two small girls. AAAUUUUUUGGGGGGHHHHHHHH!

  70. JJ says:

    You don’t want to take a massive paycut.

    homeboken says:
    February 2, 2011 at 10:08 am

    Someone explain to me why I continue to live in NJ and commute to NYC? The weather is blows in the winter, 90% of the beaches are crap during the summer, it is expensive as hell, we are taxed like crazy, etc etc. It is the exact opposite of rational decision making. It should cost way more to live in Florida, where the weather is nice, there is no state income tax etc. What am I doing here?

  71. #27 – grim – Saarinen’s masterpiece should be bulldozed. We’re not worthy of it anymore.

    I can’t imagine Holmdel twp being happy with anything other than trying to find an occupant for the current building. If they bulldoze it and put up mixed use they seriously increase traffic and pop density right in the heart of the town which is known for being pastoral and farm-like.
    That being said, good luck in finding someone who’ll want to move in.
    It was rumored for a long long time that Apple was looking at it (or the old Prudential bldg) but that never took off.

  72. d2b says:

    njescapee-
    Yeah, but when Cuba attacks, you guys are first to go. Kidding of course.

    Last time in Key West a cuban boat defected and the guys came right up to the main street. Everyone mistakenly thought that they were panhandlers and ignored them for about 30min.

  73. nj escapee says:

    d2b, yeah, it happens every now and then. They land all over the place Up in Marathon, the Tortugas…

  74. Punch My Ticket says:

    grim [39],

    I have an old “red” – I’m sure the color had a fancy name at the time – electric kitchen stove, still sitting in a shed, and working when I pulled it out.

    It’s hideous. But not as hideous as avocado.

    Want to spend some money? http://www.smegusa.com/Showroom.htm

  75. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [20] grim,

    If the handler had said that Phil, in perfect groundhogese, said 6 more weeks of winter, the crowd would have likely lynched him. So the early spring prediction was easy.

  76. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Boken 68 if you can keep your job & get the h*ll out of here, DO IT!

  77. Anon E. Moose says:

    SL [8];

    Is now a good time for us to refinance our loan?

    Kidding (I hope)? Make a payment or two yourself before you look to pay your mortgage broker’s next lease payment. Or at least unpack your moving boxes. ;-)

  78. Anon E. Moose says:

    Grim [16];

    An old friend was an fan of orange. That and a little practical joke he pulled using concentrated citric acid (tartness flavoring ingredient) earned him the title “Citrus Commando”.

  79. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    the cyclone is going to hit prime Aussie sugar cane area on the Queensland coast. I remember seeing them burn off the fields at night near Mossman, and that little narrow gauge railroad they use to shuttle cane to the mill. Sugar crossed $35 today.

    I hedged defensively against the price, but wish now I went on offense and bought futures. Would have made a nice counter to the drop in my shiny. Oh well.

  80. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [5] grim

    “Yikes! Sorry but this is just terrible advice..”

    And here’s why:

    “From the Philly Inquirer:”

    ’nuff said.

  81. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Grim,

    Went to an open house up the street from me. Gave NJREReport.com a plug to the realtors there. Told them that it wasn’t exactly complimentary to realtors and they said ‘we’re used to it.”

  82. grim says:

    I have an old “red” – I’m sure the color had a fancy name at the time – electric kitchen stove, still sitting in a shed, and working when I pulled it out.

    Red or copper toned? I’ve been trying to find the official name of that reddish copper color that was popular before harvest and avocado. Someone mentioned Cordova or Cordoba Copper being what Maytag called it.

  83. chicagofinance says:

    Vince Clarke of Erasure (original Depeche Mode writer) and Martin Gore are collaborating on a dance EP to be released in the next 6 weeks.

    Tracks:
    01| “Zaat”
    02| “Flux”
    03| “Skip This Track”
    04| “New Track”
    05| “Single Blip”
    06| “Aftermaths”
    07| “Recycle”

  84. homeboken says:

    Mike – 77, me thinking about it is one one thing. Convincing the wife is quite another.

  85. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Just cannot make this up.

    Army considering giving smartphones to soldiers. One app is called iSnipe, which helps project bullet trajectory.

    Need to take out an insurgent at 600 yards? There’s an app for that.

  86. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [83] grim

    I think it was called “rich Corinthian copper”. Use Ricardo Montalban voice when saying it.

  87. Anon E. Moose says:

    HB [68];

    Aside from the fact that my employer is HQ’d in Manhattan, there is zero reason why I can’t do my job anywhere. In fact, I am in the Midwest, TX, CA, and AZ about 12 weeks out of the year anyway.

    The reason is your manager has JJ’s mentality on remote work arrangements. Sadly, as does mine.

  88. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Boken 85 ah, now that may be a problem. Fight the fights you can win, going on 24 years.

  89. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Nom having fun playing Mr Mom today, looking back on those days you will remember it fondly.

  90. Anon E. Moose says:

    Mike, HB [91, 85];

    If I can make it work, the spouse is welcome to come or stay as she pleases.

  91. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Nom 88 I have that one down.

  92. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Moose taking no prisoners today!

  93. jamil says:

    54: “What am I doing here?”

    Think of the children. The State need suckers like you to pay everything.

  94. nj escapee says:

    Only concessions I had to make in our move to Key West was for Mrs to have the last word on choice of all materials and design for renovations to our humble abode. We pretty much redid everything over a 2 year period. She was very happy to give up her 9-5. She now volunteers part time 5 days / week. Phone contact and visits back to Jersey every few months is enough. No one here is home sick for NJ. :)

  95. JJ says:

    Short term you can do your job anywhere, long term you can’t.
    I don”t mind people at all working from home if they do a good job and are happy being off the promotion track. Issue is guy one gets up at five am busts butt gets to work by 8am in snow, works to six pm and gets home at six pm and guy two rolls out of bed at nine am does some mumbo jumbo on computer, hits gym, checks in at starbucks and goes out to eat at five pm and guy two wants same career opportunity as guy one. I myself was running late today as I had issues with a sick passenger damm EMT had to be called. Guy one was at desk at 8am when I had him put out some fires. Guy two was milking it and “on the way in” after hinting it was icy can he stay home. I need more guy ones, heck maybe I want to telecommute, I can’t do that unless someone is covering.

    Anon E. Moose says:
    February 2, 2011 at 11:50 am

    HB [68];

    Aside from the fact that my employer is HQ’d in Manhattan, there is zero reason why I can’t do my job anywhere. In fact, I am in the Midwest, TX, CA, and AZ about 12 weeks out of the year anyway.

    The reason is your manager has JJ’s mentality on remote work arrangements. Sadly, as does mine.

  96. JJ says:

    what do you do for a living down there? I can’t even work in the surburbs in NY as paycut would be horrendous. If I worked in LI or NJ my wife would have to go back to work full time.
    nj escapee says:
    February 2, 2011 at 12:17 pm

    Only concessions I had to make in our move to Key West was for Mrs to have the last word on choice of all materials and design for renovations to our humble abode. We pretty much redid everything over a 2 year period. She was very happy to give up her 9-5. She now volunteers part time 5 days / week. Phone contact and visits back to Jersey every few months is enough. No one here is home sick for NJ. :)

  97. nj escapee says:

    JJ, Those days are over my friend except for maybe in NYC. Been doing this for 5.5 yrs. Though, I have no expectation of ever being promoted.

  98. nj escapee says:

    JJ, I’m in IT (private sector)

  99. letarded says:

    nj escapee, if your employer is in NJ/NY you would still have to pay NJ/NY taxes.
    Of course, still nice arrangement given the weather and non-sosialist state apparatus.

  100. DL says:

    No matter what happens in Egypt, we (the US) will come out with less influence and fewer “friends” in the region. Because we refuse to place as bet on the outcome, we’re trying to support Mubarak while looking like we want more democracy. If Mubarak stays, he knows we were willing to throw him under the bus. If the opposition (and we have no idea who that is exactly) throws him out, it will rightly accuse the US of not supporting it when it needed it most. And all because the US and EU central banks printed enough money to send food prices soaring. Life is a bic#h on $2 a day.

  101. Libtard In the City says:

    JJ,

    I made it into the city this morning and I’m a gimp. Took a mere 130 minutes to go the 12 miles from Montclair. I’m not complaining though. I put up a worker of ours in a hotel a block from the office last night to ensure we’d be covered this morning at 7am come hell or high water. The guy I put up in the hotel did not have a choice.

  102. homeboken says:

    Mike – 24 years, congrats. I’m only on 2.

    Bottom line, JJ is correct. Most corporate jobs can technically be performed remotely, but there is value to being in the office. One older member of my team works from home a few days a week. They don’t get pulled into meetings or get the face time, they don’t grab a sandwhich or drink on way home with the boss or colleague. My company is very conservative (suits and ties everyday). Wearing an un-ironed shirt, or odd color does leave an impression. In the theory, the color of ones shirt shouldn’t have an impact on what your bosses think of you. But it does. Facetime is a key to success here, so I will continue to do what I do and save the whining about the weather for the internet.

  103. JJ says:

    homeboken my first job was so conservative that back then when I ironed my shirts for work I would just do the front of the shirt, never ironed the sleeves, sides or back of shirt. My boss did not allow us to take our suit jackets off at work, said it looked very unprofessional. So back then I used to live at home, my mom used to laugh when I tell her Sunday I am ironing five shirts for work this week and be done in five minutes.

  104. still_looking says:

    Nom 70

    Housebound with one crazed, sugared up 5 yr old and one overtired, sleepy, stressed out by his batshit psycho mother, and weary husband.

    Me? I wish someone would stage an intervention on her.

    sl

  105. still_looking says:

    escapee….

    Are the hospitals near you looking for docs? What are the schools like? Are there private schools? How bad are summers?

    No I am not kidding.

    I need out — for mine and my family’s sake.

    sl

  106. joyce says:

    JJ,
    If guy one works in the office and guy two works from home (and apparently goes to the gym & starbucks during the day, you know this how?) Do they have the same exact position? Do they produce the same exact results? If the answer is yes, why shouldn’t they both be considered for promotions? If there are things that can’t be done remotely, then of course you have to be in the office. Just because you are stuck in another decade and like to be able to look at your team members from time to time- doesn’t mean telecommuting is perfectly fine in certain situations.

  107. grim says:

    Housebound with one crazed, sugared up 5 yr old and one overtired, sleepy, stressed out by his batshit psycho mother, and weary husband.

    More importantly, how is the sledding? I bet you can make it clear to the brook today.

  108. joyce says:

    (105) just because that is the current mentality of the elder-statesmen at your office, doesn’t mean that it should be that way. Yes, if you want to “play the game” you must get your stupid face time, you must network till you’re blue in the face, you must volunteer & suck up, you must get additional state-licenses or certifications that are nothing more than a money-making scam / way to create scarcity for a certain industry

    sadly, that’s the way it is… I would much rather be evaluated on my work performance alone- that is not to say you should be allowed to skip out on work or have an attitude. if you’re supposedly working remotely and not getting the job done (or not doing it as well as someone else) of course that matters, and for your attitude- again of course that’s part of your performance

  109. nj escapee says:

    Lower Keys Medical Center is down the street from us. Good sized facility for down here. There is always room for good physicians. I think there may be Montessori schools in the Keys. I hear some of the public schools are pretty good. They are pretty modern facilities for the most part. Fishermans Hospital in Marathon is good. Had outpatient procedure done there and came out fine. Mariners Hospital up in Tavernier is with Baptist. That was small but pretty nice.

  110. still_looking says:

    grim 110

    haven’t even tried…. had mixed feelings about seeing the blue heron in the river today — I hope it wasn’t supposed to migrate.. it is so cute though…

    thankfully big guy and little guy are napping right now.

    sl

  111. still_looking says:

    escapee,

    Thanks. how are summers there? are they really scorchingly hot?

    sl

  112. nj escapee says:

    I work from home so AC is always on. We have kayaking, beaches and 2 pools on our property. Daytime is hot like New Orleans but we get a nice sea breeze at night. The summer months are best for a lot of things. All the snowbirds are gone. no wait at restaurants, stores, get locals discounts,

  113. Confused In NJ says:

    Nothing like shoveling 1″ of ice. Good Cardio Workout, if you don’t keel over.

  114. Shore Guy says:

    NJE,

    How do Stock Island and Key West itself differ in terms of housing, noise, etc?

  115. Libtard In the City says:

    I’ve been to Key West 3 times. Twice on cruises. I’m not sure if I could handle the onslaught of tourists and dealing with hurricane evacuations, but everything escapee says appears pretty accurate. It is quite hot and humid there during the summer months. Also, you better be gay friendly.

  116. grim says:

    sl – I have a Feelies disc burned for you. I’ll warn you, this is a really old jersey band, post-punk 70s/80s nerds, lots of guitar, very mellow. They were out of Haledon, played lots in Hoboken and NYC.

  117. nj escapee says:

    Stock Island is across the Cow Key Channel. South side / ocean is densely populated with a lot of trailer parks and such. It also has a beautiful marina with some condos. That place I think went bust. F18s blast right over that section.
    The other / gulf side is where the golf course, college and hospital and an elmentary school are located. Gulfside has the Key West address and zipcode. The island of Key West has different sections. Old Town is where most of the action is, most expensive and crowded. It’s ok for vacationing but not everyday living as there are too many drunks and parking is a pain. The other sections are residential and or commercial. Casa Marina section is nice too. Close to the free public beaches

  118. # 120 – I have a Feelies disc burned for you. I’ll warn you, this is a really old jersey band
    They were also in the movie Something Wild. They were the band playing at the HS reunion.

  119. nj escapee says:

    Libtard, I live 4 miles from Duval Street and the cruise ships. I avoid them as much as I can. We like to go to brunch at the Westin at Mallory Sq only if there are no cruise ships in and I ride my bicycle down town more than I drive. We stayed for Hurricane Wilma in 2005. Based on that experience, we think it’s best to evacuate.

  120. Shore Guy says:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-robert-shiller-exclusive-davos-2011-1

    EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW WITH ROBERT SHILLER: House Prices Could Fall For Years

  121. New in FL says:

    My wife and I just moved to southern Florida in mid-November. Considering what I have seen of the weather in the greater NYC area this winter, we made a lucky choice to get out when we did. After 4 years in northern NJ I’d had it up to here with the climate, the congestion and the general rudeness there.

    I have not been here through an entire summer yet, but I have traveled both here and other places with similar climates during summer. I would gladly deal with the heat and humidity rather than the ice and cold. When it gets too steamy I can just go out and jump in our pool. And we can drive to the beach in 20 minutes except in the heaviest traffic.

    We are in an unincorporated part of extreme northern Miami-Dade County (1/2 mile from Broward), not the keys, and we’re about 3 miles from the coast as the crow flies. We chose NOT to live too near the coast because we don’t want to worry too much about the surge when the inevitable hurricane decides to come ashore here. FEMA’s 500-year flood line crosses our lot, so we’ll probably be OK even if the deluge comes while we’re here.

    At least for me, this is paradise.

  122. Shore Guy says:

    “too many drunks and parking is a pain.”

    It sounds like Belmar south.

  123. still_looking says:

    grim, 120

    I have a bottle of awesome Napa cab/sauv for you.

    I can’t judge, I used to listen to American Angel (NJ band circa 80’s 90’s)

    sl

  124. Shore Guy says:

    For the first time in almost 50 years, the U.S. Army wants to replace the standard rifle shouldered by hundreds of thousands of frontline troops around the world.

    The service this week advertised its interest in a new weapon that would incorporate futuristic sights and other advances in rifle design and be able to handle improved ammunition.

    The gun would potentially supplant the M4 carbine, a shorter-barrel version of the M16, the Army’s main infantry weapon for decades.

    Operations in Afghanistan—where troops often engage the enemy over long distances—have rekindled debate over the quality of the Army’s standard-issue rifles and their reliability in dusty, primitive conditions. An Army report on a 2008 battle in Wanat, Afghanistan, cited soldier complaints about jamming and overheating M4s, in particular. Nine servicemen died in that fight.

    Critics have also raised concerns about the range and lethality of the 5.56 mm cartridge of the M16/M4.

    Col. Doug Tamilio, the service’s project manager for soldier weapons, said in a statement the Army sought to find “the most effective, accurate, and reliable” weapon for its soldiers. “We’re challenging industry to develop the next-generation carbine and we’re looking forward to the results.”

    snip

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704124504576118550237336920.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

  125. Shore Guy says:

    Whatever happened to Trigger and the Passions?

  126. House Whine says:

    117- confused: The ice does make a lovely cracking sound with each heavy load. I did half of my driveway and some of my neighbor’s driveway. It is now time for me to do some stretching. I had my cell phone handy, in case I did keel over and nobody noticed.

  127. Shore Guy says:

    HW,

    If you keeled over for a cardiac reason, odds are you would not be dialing a single number, let alone three.

  128. Ben says:

    The best thing Christie can do to win the pension battle is give employees an option to not participate. The pension only remains solvent on the backs of the current work force. Any rational person understands that the pension is insolvent and any rational person would abandon ship first chance they get. In a time when people are already hard up for cash, they could sure use the extra cash that would come along with not paying into a pension. That’s how you get the naive ones to abandon ship. There is a senior who eats breakfast every day at the local McDonalds. He collects 3 pensions right now and has been living the life for over 10 years. Drain the cash flow into the pension and you’ll see how fast these guys are willing to accept reduced payouts.

  129. Shore Guy says:

    NJE,

    It is interesting, I am looking at Zillow for your neighborhood and the recent sales are all vastly lower than current listings.

  130. nj escapee says:

    Shore, the market is pretty much all REO. so that doesn’t surprise me.

  131. Painhrtz says:

    Shore thought the SCAR-H was going to be the M-16/4 replacement? guess they have to keep spending those defense budget dollars

  132. Shore Guy says:

    Although I do have to crack up when I see Zillow report something like this:

    1223 2nd St# 1223Key West, FL 33040
    Recently Sold: $135,000 September 08 2010
    Zestimate®: $303,000

    Are home prices rising THAT quickly doen there?

  133. Shore Guy says:

    There was one 2 BR on CC rd that was 900 sq. feet and it went for $125k or something like that and another for $180k and folks have things listed for 400

  134. nj escapee says:

    It’s possible. Zillow does not really reflect current market info down here as the market was obliterated. I think you need to do a lot of data mining or have some boots on the ground.

  135. Shore Guy says:

    And this:

    1721 Washington StKey West, FL 33040
    Recently Sold: $170,000 November 04 2010
    Zestimate®: $270,000

    If sellers are using zestimates as a gage of their homes’ worth, no wonder there are so many absurdly-priced homes on the market.

  136. nj escapee says:

    Shore, I paid X in 2000 market price went up 350% by 2004 and has since crashed back to X.

  137. Shore Guy says:

    Well, duh!

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-02/four-years-of-college-isn-t-for-everyone-harvard-study-says.html

    The U.S. is focusing too much attention on helping students pursue four-year college degrees, when two-year and occupational programs may better prepare them for the job market, a Harvard University report said.

    The “college for all” movement has produced only incremental gains as other nations leapfrog the United States, and the country is failing to prepare millions of young people to become employable adults, said the authors of the Pathways to Prosperity Project, based at the Harvard Graduate School of Education in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

    snip

  138. JJ says:

    shore we should just keep the chinese out of college. Those tiger moms spoil the keg parties.

  139. jamil says:

    stealing from the Senate is a crime??

    “Sen. Edward Kennedy’s (D-Mass.) former office manager was convicted on Tuesday of stealing more than $75,000 from the Senate.
    Ngozi Pole was found guilty on five counts of wire fraud and one count of theft of government property.
    The Maryland resident faces a maximum prison sentence of 20 years for each of the fraud charges and up to 10 years in prison for the theft of government property charge.”

  140. Shore Guy says:

    Tiger moms, cougar moms, it is all so confusing.

  141. Shore Guy says:

    “former office manager was convicted on Tuesday of stealing more than $75,000 from the Senate.”

    How many pens does one need?

  142. Nicholas says:

    Just a couple of points on todays posts.

    Yes, stealing government property is a federal crime.

    If your company is based in NJ and you live and work in another state you do not have to pay NJ taxes. I work in MD and work for NJ based company. I only pay MD taxes.

  143. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    Pain, shore

    several different battle rifles have been developed as replacements. The excuse I heard the last two times fir nit adopting the new rifles was the cost of transitioning away from the m16

  144. nj escapee says:

    Nicholas is correct. You’re liable for what you actually earn while physically working in NJ

  145. jamil says:

    Nicholas, escapee: Re taxes if living in free state while working for high-tax state.
    This gets tricky. Recently, NY won a tax case against TN telecommuter.

    http://cyberlaw.stanford.edu/packets003617.shtml
    The United States Supreme Court recently denied certiorari for a Court of Appeals of New York case holding that New York could tax 100% of the income of a Tennessee resident who telecommuted from Tennessee for a New York employer 75% of the time, and was only physically present in New York 25% of the time. The Plaintiff sought Supreme Court review under 28 U.S.C. Section 1257(a) because of the constitutional questions involved in the case. The Plaintiff had brought suit against the New York State Division of Tax Appeals to overturn a decision that 100% of his income was taxable in New York. The decision relied on New York’s “convenience of the employer” test which states that nonresidents working for New York employers must pay taxes on work done in another state unless it is done out of state for the necessity of the employer. The Plaintiff claimed that taxing the income he earned in Tennessee was a violation of New York tax law and violated his due process rights. The Court of Appeals of New York denied both his claims.

  146. nj escapee says:

    jamil, thanks for that information. We keep records very detailed records of T&E. I haven’t been to the NJ work location in over 2 years.

  147. Howard R says:

    Carlie,

    Perhaps you are comparing a specific house in Wall or Howell to a specific house in a place like Brielle. My opinion: you should pick the town before you pick the house. Life(neighbors, taxes, schools, sports, etc.) in the inland townships really is very different than it is in the beach towns. I have done both & prefer the latter but to each his/her own.

    I wouldn’t mind being near a cemetery but certain busy roads might be a dealbreaker for me….especially if the road lacks sidewalks and features a tricky intersection nearby….

    Why rush, especially after reading this blog? Some day you might decide that “living with the ‘rents” was not so bad after all. And make sure you do your homework on the costs 7 pains of renovations.

  148. relo says:

    16: Grim,

    Snooki reference?

    I’ve got a thing for orange

  149. JJ says:

    Telecommuting is also interesting as technically it is in violation of your mortgage as you declared it is for residential use only. Plus your property taxes are taxed as residential and you are using it for commerical purposes. Also issue of disability if you are injured from home, do you get workers comp? What if you go out for coffee during work hours and hit a bus full of kids does your employer gets sued. What if your firm has a location in NJ and NY and you work out of NY but live in NJ, if you telecommute from home 10 or more days it has tax implications. For those ten days you are a NJ resident working in NJ. And you have to take the ten days off your NY non resident return. What about OSHA, what if your PC and equipment injurys you. What about creepy things on your home computer that you look at during work time. For the most part telecommuting is done for employee morale and retention but it is a headache and often techincally illegal in some cases.

    jamil says:
    February 2, 2011 at 4:55 pm

    Nicholas, escapee: Re taxes if living in free state while working for high-tax state.
    This gets tricky. Recently, NY won a tax case against TN telecommuter.

    http://cyberlaw.stanford.edu/packets003617.shtml
    The United States Supreme Court recently denied certiorari for a Court of Appeals of New York case holding that New York could tax 100% of the income of a Tennessee resident who telecommuted from Tennessee for a New York employer 75% of the time, and was only physically present in New York 25% of the time. The Plaintiff sought Supreme Court review under 28 U.S.C. Section 1257(a) because of the constitutional questions involved in the case. The Plaintiff had brought suit against the New York State Division of Tax Appeals to overturn a decision that 100% of his income was taxable in New York. The decision relied on New York’s “convenience of the employer” test which states that nonresidents working for New York employers must pay taxes on work done in another state unless it is done out of state for the necessity of the employer. The Plaintiff claimed that taxing the income he earned in Tennessee was a violation of New York tax law and violated his due process rights. The Court of Appeals of New York denied both his claims.

  150. relo says:

    68: Mike,

    If you cn go, I strongly recommend it. They’ll come to visit, believe me. Me? Counting the days…

  151. lookingaround says:

    is anyone familiar with the NJ Live Where You work program? I’m in Burlington County and a first time homebuyer and beginning to look to see what is out there in the Marlton area. I came across this program – any disadvantages to it?

  152. plume (87)-

    Can you forward me a link to that?

  153. pain (133)-

    With you on that one. Just one less babbling moron on the news.

  154. jj (142)-

    I bet jj could shag the tiger right out of that tiger mom lady.

  155. …then give her a donkey punch and tell her to make him a plate of chop suey.

  156. relo says:

    127: SL,

    How can I miss you
    If you never go away?

    American Angel

  157. jamil (143)-

    Let’s dig up Teddy Kennedy and kill him again.

    (I expect jamil to second this idea.)

  158. From the looks of the photos I’ve seen, that tiger mom has also p-whipped her Anglo hubby.

  159. relo says:

    162: Clot,

    Tiger mom needs the Swept Away treatment (original version).

  160. still_looking says:

    relo — re orange

    nail polish or skin color?

    sl

  161. I think ZH has just given us an insight into how BC Bob is spending his time these days.

    “The day started with December volatility being offered in risk reversal form. Volatility continued to soften through the front months until late morning when the December 1800 C buyer resurfaced. Iron butterflies are synthetically offered as dealers offer straddles and funds buy wings. The fat-tailed aspect of gold options is approaching Nassim Taleb proportions, especially in December. Calls between the 1800 and 2000 strike area are constantly bought. Puts from June on back with a value under $5 are also consistently bought. Meanwhile you can buy all the 1400 calls in any month you want at any time. Taken together this can be translated as “We’re not moving anytime soon but if we do we aren’t stopping.” We reiterate our statement that volatility will firm up if we settle below 1325 or above 1346.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/buyer-2000-december-1800-calls-back-second-day-row-gold-options-market-approaching-talebian-

  162. “In my view we are now experiencing the bust that inevitably results from the misallocation of capital and human resources in a period of artificially cheap credit. It is important to understand the Federal Reserve’s role in creating today’s unemployment crisis, while also highlighting that high unemployment and low economic growth can persist even in the face of tremendous monetary inflation.”

    – Ron Paul, announcing his first committee hearing today.

  163. Neanderthal Economist says:

    From Robert Shiller posted at 124:
    “We could have another bubble. We could even have it soon. It’s possible we could launch into another housing bubble if people think that the recovery is real and they want to get in early. We know one thing: according to the Michigan survey on consumer sentiment, people think that prices are low and that good buys are available. There is the beginning of bubble thinking, right there; all it takes is some sense that it’s going now. I’m sorry to be so weak as a forecaster. I think it could go either way.”

  164. Neanderthal Economist says:

    I swear that Zillow has been purchased and administered by the NAR over the last year, the Zestimates have gotten more rediculous than some of the asking prices.

    136- Shore Guy says:
    Although I do have to crack up when I see Zillow report something like this:

  165. Confused In NJ says:

    130.House Whine says:
    February 2, 2011 at 2:54 pm
    117- confused: The ice does make a lovely cracking sound with each heavy load. I did half of my driveway and some of my neighbor’s driveway. It is now time for me to do some stretching. I had my cell phone handy, in case I did keel over and nobody noticed

    Two years ago I went out and discovered my neighbor unconcious, after falling on the ice going around the side of his house, to get the garbage barrel. He had just got back that day from Italy, and didn’t realize the snow was ice glazed. He wound up injuring his knee and one veterbrate in his back. He now keeps the barrel in the garage, even though his wife still complains about the garbage barrel smell.

  166. veets (167)-

    Can’t reinflate a balloon that’s burst into a million pieces. The attempt to do so is the proverbial transfusion of a corpse.

    The bubble mentality has moved on to infect a whole new group of rancid “asset” classes. Too bad that everywhere the Bernank wants the bubble mindset to take hold, it won’t.

    The $12.50 bologna sandwich is coming to a food line near you.

  167. Leveraged assets: the asset declines, the debt remains.

    Same as it ever was.

  168. nj escapee says:

    Debt Super Nova,

    Excellent visual: “The $12.50 bologna sandwich is coming to a food line near you.”

  169. Yield must be paid, mf’er. Is Mr. Gross hinting at going vigilante?

    Oh, bother. Time for Access Hollywood.

    “Well, boo-hoo, you bondholders and PIMCOs of the world. Maybe it’s just that nice guys always finish last and you can’t beat City Hall, Washington DC, or even Wall Street. After all, you gotta invest your money in something and even if it’s a negative real interest rate – whatever that is – or 0.01%, it’s probably better than nothing. So suck it up. Big boys don’t cry unless their last name is Boehner, or they’re a banker in need of a bailout.

    Well, not so fast. This lad and this company are not going away so easily. Devils may or may not be present in this earthly world, depending on your point of view, but if they are, there’s a good chance that exorcists do too and PIMCO’s got just the antidote. Instead of accepting historical durational risk and the prospect of a barbershop quartet of possible haircuts, bondholders should recognize that yield or “spread” comes in different varieties. Maturity extension is just one of them, yet if yields are too low based on historical example, an investor should analyze other yields or other “spreads” which are not. That is what we call “safe spread” – the recognition that credit spreads, or emerging market returns, or currencies with positive and high real interest rates are more attractive than those old-fashioned gilts and Treasury bonds offering 2–3%. Those are markets that need to be “exorcised” from model portfolios and replaced with more attractive alternatives both from a risk and a reward standpoint. It is still possible to produce 4–5% returns from a conservatively positioned bond portfolio – you just have to do it with a different mix of global assets.

    Usurious? Hardly. Justification for turning your spouse over as collateral? Never. Bondholders may be presented with a devil’s bargain, but exorcists are coming to life. Bondholders and citizens of America unite! Mammon may be ascendant in this secular world, but there’s always space for heavenly intentions and their antidotes for policy haircuts. Practice “safe spread,” fear the devil, and avoid the barbershop.”

    William H. Gross
    Managing Director

    http://www.pimco.com/Pages/Devils-Bargain.aspx

  170. NJGator says:

    Today’s Living Social Deal….Guns and Ammo….

    Reenacting the famed Taxi Driver “You talkin’ to me?” scene is a lot less cool when holding a blow dryer. Thankfully we’ve got a deal locked and loaded today that will let your inner De Niro loose without having you drop much dinero. Spend $65 and receive an hour of unlimited shooting (guns, safety gear, and a ten-minute training session included) at Gun for Hire — a $130 value. Committed to promoting gun safety and proper gun usage, Gun for Hire offers a full-service range and safety courses taught by professionals. Choose from seven dates, beginning February 6 for the chance to fire pistols, rifles, and shotguns as you transform yourself into an expert marksman. It’s time to take aim at another boring weekend with today’s deal, which will have you emptying chambers, but not your wallet.

    http://livingsocial.com/deals/22881-shooting-range-package

  171. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Things are escalating in Egypt. Gun fire from both sides it would seem. Army will have to intercede to get everyone off the streets. Just saw an M60a3 blowing a smoke screen to keep the 2 sides off each other. By morning you will hear they went in , it will not be pretty.

  172. Shore Guy says:

    Read 10 Days That Shook the World. It is a guidebook to modern revolutions.

  173. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    Gator 174

    Guns For Hire is a great group of guys. I have a fair amount of experience with them. They can take care of you regardless of what skill level you may be at, from novice to pro.

    Not trying to shill, but i have had nothing but great experiences with them. Clot i think Anthony might be a kindred soul of yours ;)

    http://www.gunforhire.com/

  174. relo says:

    164: SL,

    Definitely the latter, probably the former. Neon glowing orange. I recently went to the outlets in Secaucus to exchange a gift for my daughter. You need sunglasses (at night, in Feb.) to look at the clerks at the Juicy store.

  175. Valeska says:

    Sweet post, good site design and style, maintain the good work

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