Will rising rates destroy any chance of recovery?

From CNN/Money:

Don’t sweat rising mortgage rates

Will rising interest rates slam the door on a fragile housing recovery?

No — though that only underscores just how grim the housing picture is.

The rate on the 30-year conforming mortgage has risen to a recent 5.1% from 4.2% last October (see chart, right), tagging along behind an even larger rise in the yield on the 10-year Treasury note over that period.

The jump in the mortgage rate has added around $50 to the monthly tab on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage on a median-price house ($170,000 or so) purchased with 20% down, estimates Paul Dales of Capital Economics in Toronto.

Those figures could yet rise further in coming weeks. Many observers expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury rise to 4% or above from a recent 3.6%, amid questions about whether U.S. policymakers have the guts to rein in the galloping U.S. budget deficit. Higher Treasury rates generally translate into higher mortgage rates.

He also expects low house prices to limit the fallout of higher costs that will result from the Obama administration’s makeover of the deeply troubled U.S. mortgage finance system.

“Relatively low house prices mean that affordability remains very high by historical standards,” says Dales.

Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean a housing recovery is anywhere in sight. Few Americans have either the means or the inclination to plunk down $34,000 for a down payment on a house now, regardless of how reasonable the monthly payment might be.

That unwillingness to invest in housing only stands to increase now that house prices are falling in earnest again. House prices fell in 19 of the 20 biggest regions in November, S&P said in its latest survey of national house prices, and the Case Shiller indexes are down around 30% from their 2006 peaks, within a few points of their recent lows.

“High affordability will still not prevent house prices from falling further,” says Dales.

This entry was posted in Economics, Mortgages, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

161 Responses to Will rising rates destroy any chance of recovery?

  1. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    Home sales fell 12% in 2010: CoreLogic

    U.S. home sales totaled 3.6 million in 2010, a 12% drop from the year before that pulled prices down with it, according to data provider CoreLogic.

    In November, the latest month of data available from CoreLogic, home prices dropped 5.1% for the fourth straight month of decline. Decreases in home prices have spread to 45 states from 18 just six months before.

    “The downturn in home prices is clearly being driven by weak sales, an excess supply of unsold homes and larger impact from distressed sales,” CoreLogic said in its report.

    The number of homes sold in 2010 was at its lowest point since the housing market collapsed. Sales were more than 50% below the level seen before the crisis in 2005 and 33% below the level measured in 2000.

    The CoreLogic data clashes with a report from the National Association of Realtors, which reported home sales dropped just 5% to 4.9 million and that home sales in 2009 actually increased from the year before. According to CoreLogic, home sales did not improve in 2009. There has been a steady decline since the peak in 2005.

  2. Essex says:

    Welcome to the new normal. Characteristics include: High Unemployment/Underemployment, more regulations (fees), Higher Taxes, and a free pass for bankster and gubmint shills of both parties.

  3. serenity now says:

    I am considering buying land, (N .Carolina). Is it safe to assume that land prices
    have as much downward movement ahead of them as housing does? Should I wait
    a few years? It is a retirement move and I have plenty of time.

  4. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Montvale-based A&P announces more store closures

    The struggling A&P supermarket chain, which closed 32 stores and filed for bankruptcy court protection last fall, informed its unions Tuesday that it will close another 32 “under-performing” stores in six states over the next two months, eliminating thousands of jobs.

    The parent, Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co. Inc., announced later Tuesday afternoon that it had filed a motion seeking approval to close the stores “as the company continues to fully implement its comprehensive financial and operational restructuring.”

    “While this was a very difficult decision that will unfortunately impact some of our customers, partners, communities and employees, these actions are absolutely necessary as we work to strengthen A&P’s operating foundation and improve our performance,” said Sam Martin, chief executive officer, in a press release. “We will help our affected colleagues pursue other positions across the company should open positions be available.”

    Included, in addition to the Hackensack store, are Pathmarks in Gillette, Hillsborough, Livingston, Middletown, South Plainfield and Whippany and A&Ps in Flanders, Barnegat and Manville.

  5. grim says:

    February WARN Notices:

    WARN Notice – February 2011
    COMPANY CITY EFFECTIVE
    DATE WORKFORCE
    AFFECTED

    CTSC, LLC FORT MONMOUTH 04/11/2011 245
    IESI Corporation Jersey City 01/28/2011 58
    TECOM-Vinnell Services Ft. Monmouth 04/11/2011 130
    TydenBrooks Security Products Group Newton 04/30/2011 52

  6. grim says:

    Can anyone comment on the impact of the Ft. Monmouth closure?

  7. safe as houses says:

    #6 grim

    I thought a lot of the people working at Ft Monmouth got sweet deals with the government buying their houses at peak bubble prices (2005 or 6 comps) and paying part or all of their relocation deals.

    On the bright side closing Ft Monmouth will ease traffic congestion on Rt 36. During race track season you didn’t want to go anywhere near that area during the evening rush hour.

  8. #6 Can anyone comment on the impact of the Ft. Monmouth closure?

    I know a lot of the work that was being done there had either been relocated to other bases over the past decade or phased out entirely so the loss of jobs wont be as great an impact as it could. Still, Monmouth Mall is looking like a ghost town, I don’t see how this could help.
    As far as any plans for that land…. that’s a very good question.

  9. serenity (3)-

    Vacant land- in any market environment- is always the riskiest RE purchase one can make.

    My dad was a developer and investor, and I saw him pinned with massive losses for years because he owned vacant land. Several projects he did ended up barely making money because the amortization cost of the raw land buy was through the roof. And, he bought it well, did his due diligence, etc.

    My dad’s former business partner is now in the middle of a 40mm foreclosure because he got too long in vacant land at exactly the wrong time.

    Too many things can go wrong with land. Besides, when you do retire and are ready to build, something will be there for you if you still have a taste for building from the ground up.

  10. gary says:

    The down payments demanded by banks to buy homes have ballooned since the housing bust, forcing many people to rethink what they can afford and potentially shrinking the pool of eligible buyers.

    They couldn’t afford it from the beginning. They were part of the setup, the sting, the ruse, the heist. The seller was the prop and the “buyer” was the dupe. You needed the players to complete the theft. It’s not hard to understand. There WAS no market from 2002 through 2007. We’re still in the aftermath. The reconstruction and cleanup is still an additional 20% drop and 2 to 3 years away.

  11. NJ Toast says:

    Rising interest rates and unemployment that continues to fester near 10% and people still discuss a housing recovery?

    Specific to NJ more layoffs in the pharma sector can’t help.

    For those of you who like to predict the future where do you think property taxes for homeowners will be in 5 years? Even though there are opportunities to buy homes at lower prices today, taxes in the garden state will scare me off.

  12. grim says:

    The down payments demanded by banks to buy homes have ballooned since the housing bust

    False

  13. grim says:

    Spring market DOA?

    From Calculated Risk:

    MBA: Mortgage Purchase Application activity decreases

    The four-week moving average of the purchase index has fallen to the levels of last September – suggesting weak home sales through the first few months of 2011.

  14. grim says:

    Borders files Chapter 11, 30% of stores to close in the next few weeks.

  15. Essex says:

    Eh, chapter 11 in this country is just another corporate strategy. (LOL)

  16. Essex says:

    I like how Madoff is chirping like a little birdie. Let’s see some banksters head down the perp walk. Willful Negligence. Hmmm

  17. grim says:

    From MSNBC:

    Homebuilders have grim view of housing market

    Homebuilders have yet to see a turnaround in the housing market after the worst year for new-home sales in a half-century.

    The National Association of Home Builders said Tuesday that its index of builder sentiment for February remained unchanged for the fourth straight month at 16. Any reading below 50 indicates negative sentiment about the market. The index hasn’t been above that level since April 2006.

    Many analysts say the housing market is expected to show some signs of life this year but the recovery will likely be uneven. The latest regional data showed builders are becoming more optimistic in the Northeast and South and dimmer in the Midwest and West. And while hopes for improved single-family sales now and over the next six months improved, the amount of foot traffic by prospective buyers remained flat.

    The true test of whether the housing market will rebound will come in spring, when the peak time of year for home-buying.

    “It really does boil down to the spring-buying season,” said Carl J. Riccadonna, a senior U.S. economist with Global Markets Research. “There are signs that we’re starting to claw back from the bottom. As long as it’s flat-lining during the winter, it’s the spring that will tell the tale.”

  18. gary says:

    Opening the listings on a daily basis is an absolute comedy show. F*cking hilarious. It’s like watching that America’s Home Video show where the baby carrying the puppy fall on the birthday cake. It’s laugh-out-loud stupidity. In 2006, you were told it’s different here. In 2008, it was contained to subprime. In 2009, we were told it was the bottom. In 2010, it was full steam ahead again!! Oh wait, the tax credit was a shell game… nevermind. It’s 2011 and we’re 20% down from peak with no lifeline in sight with 16% real unemployment. Sell? Sell to whom?

  19. NJ Toast says:

    Essex, more money for Bernie’s victims and Baker.

  20. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Was walking Washington St in Hoboken this weekend perusing the RE listings. Had to chuckle at the sheer number of 2BD/2BA listings being trotted out once again at 2005-2006 prices. Yeah, it wouldn’t sell the past three years at what you paid for it, and now the property taxes are 15-20% higher, but this selling season is going to be the one!!!

  21. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Like I’ve stated before, not buying until prices, taxes, rates, inflation, dow and unemployment all see a 1 handle.

  22. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Hehe, yea but 05-06 was pre-cake boss.

  23. sx (16)-

    Not a chance. Bernie’s biggest enabler was the JP Morgue.

  24. Painhrtz says:

    More fun from the econmy just had an interview canned at a major pharm company, sounds like sizer, due to a hiring freeze. Yeah happy day

  25. “This may be a highly distasteful proposition, but just for a moment, I want you to sit back, and imagine that you are a member of the corporate banking elite. You are a walking talking disease ridden power mad pustule who naively believes himself intellectually superior to the vast majority of humanity and above the inherent laws of conscience, honor, and general good taste. You are a villain in the purest sense, in that you not only do great harm to the world, you actually SEEK to do great harm to the world, if only to benefit yourself and your exclusive circle of “friends”; a clan of degenerate blood thirsty sociopaths with delusions of omnipotence that stalk the night like Armani wearing Chupacabra exsanguinating the joy from poor unsuspecting cultures. You are capable of anything, and sadly, you take “pride” in this fact…The issue is, how do you convince the general public that all is well until you are ready to unleash hyperinflation and fiscal Armageddon? How do you make them believe with all their hearts that they are not in the midst of a debt meltdown and the end of their financial sovereignty, but basking in a full-on economic recovery?! Here is a step by step guide to fabricating an economic recovery out of thin air…”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-how-fake-economic-recovery

  26. pain (24)-

    All is well.

    It’s different here.

    You’re being too negative.

    NJ is insulated from severe downturns.

    Look at our higher incomes in NJ.

    The only thing that’s a problem is your poor attitude.

    [sarc off]

  27. freedy says:

    What s the dead pool on the Spring “11” selling season

  28. Barbara says:

    Gary at #10 is exactly right. I was an investor, I got out in 2000 – granted, a little too early. I bought one of the last truly profitable multifamilies in 2000, then I sat back and watched the madness.

  29. freedy (27)-

    Spring ’11 selling season should’ve already paid off in any respectable deadpool.

    Vigoda lives; housing dead.

  30. Rates on the way to 7%, nothing but garbage on the market, UE understated by half, taxes spiraling out of control.

    Yeah, great time to buy a house in NJ.

  31. leftwing says:

    Serenity

    Agree with Clot on the land.

    Not that liquid if your plans change, the universe of buyers is much smaller, and probably more downside. My experience says wait until you are ready to build.

    Land seems slower on the upside and just as quick, if not faster, on the downside. I have a piece in a name community in the 287 corridor I purchased in 2002. Based on some on again/off again activity over the years as our plans changed I estimate it peaked at 25% up from purchase and that I’m probably back at 2002 levels now. Houses went higher, and have yet to revert to 2002 in said community.

    If it is a truly unique piece – few are – you may track the swing in home values. I have this situation at the shore but in all honesty if we decide to sell this piece we would be foolish not to build on it first to spring all the value out of it. Bottom line is people want to buy pretty, finished homes not a 12 month project. Don’t put yourself in a situation where to get full value if your plans change you need to manage a construction project 800 miles away.

    Another consideration…with land you have zoning/regulatory risk. I dodged the Highlands Act red line by a couple of miles and I would be lying if I didn’t say I was holding my breath the whole time. Plus communities can (and do frequently) change code – building height, steep slope, lot coverage, conservation easements, etc. and these limitations have a real impact on value. No such risk that an existing house gets zoned out of existence. And regulatory risk is increasing, not decreasing.

    And for goodness sake if you do go forward do it with cash. Don’t ever sign a note for land.

  32. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    “Hehe, yea but 05-06 was pre-cake boss.”

    The odds are better of me waiting in line for an hour and a half for one of the cake bosses overpriced cannolis than of them selling their condo for $650K.

  33. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [3] serenity

    Depending on where the land is, I would not assume that. First, farmland or open land amenable to farming, lumber, etc, seems to be holding value. Second, consider that there is going to be a vast demographic shift from urban/suburban to retirement areas.

  34. Anon E. Moose says:

    Re [17];

    “It really does boil down to the spring-buying season,” said Carl J. Riccadonna, a senior U.S. economist with Global Markets Research. “There are signs that we’re starting to claw back from the bottom. As long as it’s flat-lining during the winter, it’s the spring that will tell the tale.”

    2011:The Year There Was No Spring [Fifth Annual]

  35. Anon E. Moose says:

    Freedy [27];

    No dead pool action on things already dead.

  36. leftwing says:

    ““This may be a highly distasteful proposition, but just for a moment, I want you to sit back, and imagine that you are a member of the corporate banking elite. You are a walking talking disease ridden power mad pustule who naively believes himself intellectually superior to the vast majority of humanity and above the inherent laws of conscience, honor, and general good taste. You are a villain in the purest sense, in that you not only do great harm to the world, you actually SEEK to do great harm to the world, if only to benefit yourself and your exclusive circle of “friends”; a clan of degenerate blood thirsty sociopaths with delusions of omnipotence that stalk the night like Armani wearing Chupacabra exsanguinating the joy from poor unsuspecting cultures. You are capable of anything, and sadly, you take “pride” in this fact…”

    Meh. What separates them from other conquering cultures other than the uniform?

    And it turned out well for the others I assume, since they were our forebears.

  37. Painhrtz says:

    Freedy I picked January 1st

  38. leftwing says:

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/02/nj_education_chief_chris_cerf.html

    Oh yeah.

    Bust public employee unions. Starve the beast.

  39. mob says:

    Grim (6)
    from http://www.njfuture@njfuture.org
    Future Facts
    NJ Future Facts is distributed twice-monthly via email. Click here to sign up. Click here for the archives.

    Fort Monmouth Redevelopment Taking Shape

    In September 2011, the U.S. Department of Defense will close Fort Monmouth, the 1,126-acre military base that occupies parts of three Monmouth County municipalities: Eatontown, Oceanport and Tinton Falls.
    To prepare for this eventuality, the Legislature in 2006 established the Fort Monmouth Economic Revitalization Planning Authority “to plan for the comprehensive conversion and revitalization of Fort Monmouth, so as to encourage enlightened land use and to create employment and other business opportunities for the benefit of the host municipalities.”
    The task of carrying out this plan now falls to a new agency, the Fort Monmouth Economic Revitalization Authority, staffed by the state Economic Development Authority and empowered, among other things, to undertake redevelopment projects, adopt development and design guidelines and land use regulations, acquire property (including by condemnation) and supersede the master plans, zoning maps and land use ordinances of the host municipalities.

    Transforming an Abandoned Base Into an Economic Engine

    With New Jersey Future’s sixth-annual Redevelopment Forum coming up on March 4, the tale of how New Jersey is going about the process of converting soon-to-be-mothballed Fort Monmouth from a military base to a civilian residential, commercial and retail center is instructive.

    From the moment the Base Realignment and Closure Commission announced in 2005 that its hit list included New Jersey’s venerable Fort Monmouth, the shock waves were felt throughout Monmouth County. The base, established in 1917, was not only a major employer in the region, but also the source of a large customer base for many nearby businesses. The loss to the state’s economy precipitated by its closure was projected at $3.3 billion.

    The Legislature responded by passing the Fort Monmouth Economic Revitalization Act, signed into law by then-Gov. Jon Corzine in 2006. The act created the planning authority that drew up the “Fort Monmouth Reuse and Redevelopment Plan,” submitted to the Department of Defense and the Department of Housing and Urban Development in 2008. With input from the host municipalities, Monmouth County, state departments and agencies and the general public, the plan laid out three core objectives for the redevelopment of Fort Monmouth:

    Promote, develop, encourage and maintain employment, commerce, economic development and the public welfare;
    Conserve natural resources; and
    Advance the general prosperity and economic welfare of the people in the affected communities and throughout the state.
    In August 2010, the Legislature dissolved the planning authority and created the Fort Monmouth Economic Revitalization Authority to implement the plan. In addition to the powers enumerated above, the authority may enter into a master redevelopment agreement with the Economic Development Authority to act as the designated redeveloper of the Fort Monmouth site. It is also empowered “to consent to a request by a host municipality for, or request that the host municipality consider, the designation of portions of the project area as being in need of redevelopment or rehabilitation in accordance with the Local Redevelopment and Housing Law.” The host municipalities retain authority over applications for subdivision or site plan approval — but even these applications are obliged to abide by the authority’s guidelines and regulations.

    The authority is chaired by Colts Neck resident James Gorman, one of three gubernatorial appointees, and includes EDA Chairman Al Koeppe, another member of the executive branch, a Monmouth County resident appointed by the freeholders and the mayors of Eatontown, Oceanport and Tinton Falls. Serving as ex-officio non-voting members are the commissioners of Labor and Workforce Development, Environmental Protection, Community Affairs and Transportation.

    Newly hired as the authority’s executive director is Bruce Steadman, who, as chief executive officer of the Plattsburg Airbase Redevelopment Corp., turned a shuttered Air Force base in upstate New York into a site for businesses, nonprofits, residential neighborhoods, community college facilities and a new international airport.

    The authority’s immediate task is preparation of a business plan covering all issues related to the closure, conversion, revitalization and future use of Fort Monmouth, including analyses and strategies dealing with such matters as the economic impact of the project, job creation, cash flow, investment and financing strategy. And it must deal with the important issue of affordable housing. Last October, in a decision that could also have significant implications for the Pinelands, Highlands and Meadowlands, a state appeals court ruled that the Fort Monmouth Economic Revitalization Authority, because it has regional planning responsibilities, is required to address regional, rather than municipal, obligations in an affordable-housing plan.

    If you have any questions about this issue of Future Facts, please contact Rick Sinding, Senior Communications Consultant, at rsinding@njfuture.org.

  40. Painhrtz says:

    Well this is a fun read sums up what most of us already knew:

    We are reaping what has been sown, and the results of our harvest is a
    painful bankruptcy, and a foreclosure on American property, precious
    liberties, and a way of life. Few of our elected representatives in
    Washington, D.C. have dared to tell the truth. The federal United States is
    bankrupt. Our children will inherit this un-payable debt, and the tyranny to
    enforce paying it.

    http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/02/16/truth-about-america-truth-about-us/

  41. JJ says:

    Land is dangerous to hold long term. I once had a chance to buy a plot cheap in Hamptons. Bank would only lend me money if I was building a house on plot at same time. When asked why bank said a one acre plot in Easthampton for 100K is worth nothing the moment the town goes to two acre zoning. Most land deals require a cash purchase or a stick you with a high interest rate to cover risk.

  42. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [40] pain

    I predict that when (not if) this comes to pass, certain rural parts of the U.S. will resemble the tribal areas of pakistan, where transactions will be in cash or barter, and feds that come in to enforce the regime’s laws will disappear into landfills and swamps.

  43. Dick Schwartz says:

    I just had my way with a hot CBS reporter in a mob scene in Egypt and man am i tiredz!!

  44. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [43] Dick

    JJ???

  45. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [42] redux

    I should say more places. I suspect that we already have our equivalent of tribal areas.

  46. Juice Box says:

    re: # 16- I have been saying they should call Madoff to the stand. He can name names and really has nothing to lose with a 150 year sentence.

  47. ditto says:

    “Our children will inherit this un-payable debt, and the tyranny to
    enforce paying it.”

    Like the tyranny hookers under the Queensboro bridge?

  48. ditto says:

    Is it libtard or gatorade that lives in GR?
    In any case, whaddya think the taxes will be on that new construction in the bad end of town – 14 1/2 midland ave.?

  49. d2b says:

    Juice-
    I’m thinking that the Madoffs still have some cash and they will live well for generations. You don’t blow the lid off something like he did without planning first. Bernie took the fall for the whole enterprise. If he talks too much, the government will charge his family.

  50. Libtard says:

    I heard Bernie Madoff is not even in prison. He simply assumed the identity of Larry David.

  51. Painhrtz says:

    Nom your redux is correct hit some of the hinterland towns and they are run like something out of someones own personal fifedom. Outsiders are generally not welcome.

    D2B I think that is why Madoff is squaking, stay away from my family or I blow the lid off of the whole criminal enterprise. would not be surprised if he develops cancer in the next few months or has a sudden heart attack. Bernie’s breathing days are numbered.

  52. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    Pain,

    At bernie’s age, why would you care, if it guaranteed your family’s fortune.

    Nom,

    Some parts of Tennessee have always been run that way and still are. Its not uncommon to see that sort of thing within an hour of the major metropolitan areas.

  53. leftwing says:

    “I predict that when (not if) this comes to pass, certain rural parts of the U.S. will resemble the tribal areas of pakistan, where transactions will be in cash or barter, and feds that come in to enforce the regime’s laws will disappear into landfills and swamps.”

    Can we accelerate this, particularly the last part?

  54. leftwing says:

    “Nom your redux is correct hit some of the hinterland towns and they are run like something out of someones own personal fifedom. Outsiders are generally not welcome.”

    Like Linden?

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/02/union_couny_judge_prosecuted_s.html

    Best quote: The municipal prosecutor, state Sen. Nicholas P. Scutari (D-Union), was not available for the trial and has said he knew nothing about what transpired.

  55. Juice Box says:

    re: # 49 – d2b what? Rats always squeal. He has been helping Irving Picard recover money, and is only one step away from squealing on everyone else, he also met with the SEC’s inspector general.

    Bernie becuase he is cooperating is serving his time at Butner North Carolina a Medium security Fed Prision nicknamed “Camp Fluffy with a population 758 filled with “soft” prisoners including pedophiles and cooperators (“rats”) . You don’t think he would trade in a few bankers once the Feds decide to move him to a harder prison? Right now he shares an 8×6 cell with another inmate. Guys like Madoff won’t make it in harder prison and Bernie is running out of info on where to find the money. I would not be surprised if Irving Picard calls him to the stand or at least threatens to to get JPM to settle for a few Billion.

  56. Anon E. Moose says:

    Juice [46];

    So what’s in it for Madoff? He’s got enough cash to buy garden variety protection on the inside. You think he’s got enough to protect him if he starts singing?

  57. Libtard says:

    I read that Bernie has already amassed an enormous number of cigarettes by promising his prison mates 2 cigarettes tomorrow for every one he receives from them today.

  58. 30 year realtor says:

    #46 Juice Box wrote – “re: # 16- I have been saying they should call Madoff to the stand. He can name names and really has nothing to lose with a 150 year sentence.”

    Nothing to lose? Any of us that have a family know that this statement is not true!

    Madoff is in a medical facility and is an inmate celebrity. He has it as good inside as is possible. The days of Club Fed have passed long ago. FCI’s are over crowded and unpleasant.

    The Feds should work a deal with Madoff. Madoff could crush important members of the financial elite. Who knows who else he may have dirt on? It is not that he has nothing to lose, he has no incentive to cooperate!

  59. Punch My Ticket says:

    Just remember he’s on your side when you read this, Clot, but with a sense of humour ..

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-16/all-you-need-to-know-about-financial-crisis-commentary-by-michael-lewis.html

  60. Punch My Ticket says:

    30 yr [58],

    The Feds should work a deal with Madoff. Madoff could crush important members of the financial elite.

    The Feds are pwned by the financial elite. It never happens.

  61. Punch My Ticket says:

    Pain [51],

    Nom your redux is correct hit some of the hinterland towns and they are run like something out of someones own personal fifedom. Outsiders are generally not welcome.

    Could I tell you stories!! The biggest criminals where I live run the local government. They operate outside the legal system while endlessly multiplying rules in order to entrap everyone else in a sticky mess.

  62. chicagofinance says:

    Get it over and done with…..it’s happening and mostly done over the course of this year. Most of the worst of it has already hit…the malaise is what will linger…..a good amount of site will need remediation….especially anything with water on it……

    6.grim says:
    February 16, 2011 at 6:39 am
    Can anyone comment on the impact of the Ft. Monmouth closure?

  63. chicagofinance says:

    False? You could have 100%+ financed….

    12.grim says:
    February 16, 2011 at 7:30 am
    The down payments demanded by banks to buy homes have ballooned since the housing bust
    False

  64. 30 year realtor says:

    Chicago #64 – Maybe not 100+ %, but FHA will gladly loan you 96.5%. FHA also allows seller give backs up to 3%. So the answer is 99.5% financing with a credit score as low as about 640.

  65. JJ says:

    Did you know the money honey is married to the CEO of Wisdom tree and COO of stock exchange is John Stewarts brother. Just figured I also throw some random stuff in.

    chicagofinance says:
    February 16, 2011 at 11:56 am

    22 pages of ETFs

    http://www.statestreetspdrs.com/711/files/q4/q4_industry_guide.pdf

  66. JJ says:

    He is 100% right about women. Anytime you need to meet with a trader to do audit, accounting, try to sell something etc. I would always bring or just send in step of me the hottest junior single girl I could find. One girl was a CPA who loved to ramble, kinda of like that hot columbian women on modern family. Anyhow one day she was down there for five hours with a senior trader doing a walkthrough, I was like wow you got four hours of his time, she was well I had a personal issue and he was helping me. I go what? She said I was alone with my younger sister last night and we were drinking and I said I always wondered what it was like to kiss a girl, next thing I know we are making out and I liked it, but now I realize she is my sister, but somehow I still want to do it. On top of that I was thinking of getting a boob job and the trader was so nice he was telling me how perfect they are. I then go hey you used up your whole budget what about findings, I know around five hours in I told him I will get in big trouble if I have no findings so he gave me five things his group is doing wrong so I can write him up.
    If I send a guy down there, it would be I am busy trading, after ten trips maybe he get ten minutes of time and certainly no findings. Hot women on a trading floor causes fat fingers.

    Punch My Ticket says:
    February 16, 2011 at 11:49 am

    Just remember he’s on your side when you read this, Clot, but with a sense of humour ..

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-16/all-you-need-to-know-about-financial-crisis-commentary-by-michael-lewis.html

  67. Libtard says:

    ChiFi:

    Financing is as easy as ever. I just got approved by TD Bank for a $50,000 HELOC to cover my 2nd loan at 4.25%. Keep in mind, my second loan is only $43,000 and we only put down 10% in total for both loans (80/10/10). What’s the loan to value on this? Well above 80%. (for those interested, AIG would only do 70% and PNC maxed out at 80%.) The credit is there! Sheyit, I’ve also got 19 years left on another loan that’s the size of this one on our Montclair multi. Of course it helps if you have decent credit.

    I could have paid cash, but I want to keep the option of jingle mail available if Armageddon does occur and this was a much cheaper option than going FHA which we did run the numbers on.

    Lord help us if the mortgage interest rate deduction is canceled. I’m paying almost nothing but interest for the next 5 years. I’m actually getting a hefty refund this year (of my estimated taxes) due to our refinance last year. Now if inflation kicks in (as I expect it to)…Captain Cheapo away!

  68. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    Recession over…..
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Abercrombie-amp-Fitch-4Q-apf-1950804493.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

    Just wanted to say hello to everyone again. I have been lurking and not posting over the past few months. Work is out of control and I have been pretty wiped out all the time. I will hopefully post a little more often now.

    Pain, I will send you an email later today.

  69. chicagofinance says:

    Borders to be nuked:
    100 Broadway
    Fort Lee
    Rte 22 Watchung
    Raceway Mall Freehold
    461 Park Ave
    Garden State Plaza

  70. NJGator says:

    If you’ve got $18M to drop on a place, are you moving to Cedar Grove?

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3041955225-50-Laura-Dr-Cedar-Grove-NJ-07009

  71. NJGator says:

    Ditto 48 – My guess is the assessment will be set at around 95% of the sale price. But who knows. The assessor is quite a character. I had a conversation with him about a week ago ro so regarding the assessment on our new place, since it’s assessed over $100k above where we bought it. He flat out lied to me and told me I had no standing to file for 2011 since I did not own the place as of Oct 1. He said that the previous owners would have to file an appeal. We decided to lawyer up.

  72. NJGator says:

    Montclair taxes could rise 6 to 7 percent

    Ironically, because of the impact of successful property tax appeals Montclair residents could see their local taxes rise not the 5 percent originally projected but as much as 6 percent to 7 percent, Township Manager Marc Dashield warned Tuesday night.

    Dashield presented his overview of this year’s preliminary $70.2 million budget at the Township Council meeting, telling local officials that the budget process is going to be a very painful one.

    “This is going to impact service delivery,” Dashield said. “I encourage you not to look at this as a mathematical problem, because we’re not going to get an answer looking at it that way.”

    Montclair has two onerous burdens this year in crafting its budget. First, in order to comply with Gov. Christie’s 2 percent cap on local property-tax increases the township must trim $3.2 million from its budget, which will result in layoffs. Secondly, the usual surplus in the town’s coffers has been decimated by local tax appeals.

    “Unfortunately, we have almost $2. 9 million in decreases in revenue, the majority of those decreases as the result of tax appeals, which have drained our surplus in 2010,” Dashield told the council. “So that’s the challenge that we have.”

    In prior years, the municipal government issued bonds to make up for such drops in tax revenue. But this year the state is not allowing municipalities to do that, according to Dashield.

    http://www.northjersey.com/news/116291769_Montclair_taxes_could_rise_6_to_7_percent_.html

  73. Painhrtz says:

    Ok big fella don’t over do it I know how your stress levels get. Nice to see your still around

  74. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    Gator 73

    “This is going to impact service delivery,” Dashield said. “I encourage you not to look at this as a mathematical problem, because we’re not going to get an answer looking at it that way.”

    Nice! Debt doesn’t matter, right?

  75. safe as houses says:

    #71 Gator,

    Is that Essex’s place? He did claim he was leaving NJ within 2 years.

  76. ditto says:

    NJGator – thanks for the heads up there on the quirky GR assessor

  77. http://www.youtubemusic.cc/ Thanks for that awesome posting. It saved MUCH time :-)

  78. NJGator says:

    Ditto – if you need an appeal lawyer in the future, we’ll let you know if we recommend our attorney after we get the results of our hearing.

  79. NJGator says:

    Cat 75 – Nope. Doesn’t matter at all. We’re not doing anything wronfg. It’s all Trenton’s fault. Now pay up.

  80. DL says:

    Gwad, I remember Monmouth in the late 70s. Used to drink with a lot of Viet Nam vets who only knew two states, hammered and really hammered. There was a Chinese place outside the main gate called Fuk Yu or some such name. I lived on Morris Ave in a house that is no longer standing. Besides beer, bowling was the only other activity and every now and then you could catch Springsteen at the Stone Pony.

  81. Libtard says:

    Montclair’s supposed wonderful school system is essentially being dismantled. It costs a lot of money to maintain a magnet system (or to be what some people call, successfully integrated). By next year, there will be almost no librarians or foreign language teachers in the elementary schools, aides will have been outsourced, two AYP passing (like that’s really hard, although many of our schools fail) schools will be closed, all extra-curicular activities will be pay to play, etc. Meanwhile, every single aspect of the teachers contracts will be observed as revenues fall off a cliff. And they claim to be doing it “for the children.” Right Essex? I think I’ve decided to move just at the right time. Wouldn’t ever expect a progressive bastion like Montclair would ever consider playing tough with the unions. Even if it means sacrificing their own childrens’ educations to do so. And in the end, the mayor will simply blame Trenton and be absolved of any responsibility for tax increases.

  82. DL says:

    Is there a number put out by anybody that you can believe? I mean if you can’t believe the NAR, nect you’ll be telling me the gov’t is cooking the books on unemployment.
    “Statistics published by the National Association of Realtors appear to overstate sales of existing homes by 15 to 20 percent, mortgage and property data aggregator CoreLogic says in a new report that concludes home sales fell more sharply last year than previously thought.”
    http://www.inman.com/news/2011/02/15/decline-in-real-estate-sales-greater-stated

  83. Essex says:

    82. Meanwhile your hero moves billions from the public institutions to the parochial and private ones.

  84. NJGator says:

    Stu – control the hyperbole. It’s bad enough. You don’t have to exaggerate to make it sound worse. The district will likely only close one AYP passing school – Edgemont. Renaissance Middle school will likely stay open…but only because the other 2 middle schools have already failed AYP, and with the state up the district’s a*s about that already, they will have problems increasing class sizes at the two other schools. Also if Renaissance closes, they will not be able to bring back any middle school aged special needs kids that are currently sent out of district, and they have to stop paying tuition for them in order to cut the budget.

    And Pay to Play will only be for the High School.

    We lost all of our elementary foreign language teachers and librarians last year. Except at Nishuane. And I am sure Nishuane will get to keep them again this year, since they are “integral to the gifted and talented magnet theme”.

    The school that likely will be closed will be the public elementary school Montessori, Edgemont. They will cram those kids into Nishuane and Hillside and we’ll then have a K-2 school with over 650 students.

    Elementary aged special needs kids currently out of district will be brought back to our brandy spanking new Bullock school. Where I am assuming they will teach them recreational pharmaceutical sales as a viable trade.

  85. young buck says:

    What’s wrong, scared of a little competition?

    84. Essex says:
    February 16, 2011 at 2:54 pm
    82. Meanwhile your hero moves billions from the public institutions to the parochial and private ones.

  86. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    Libtard,

    all extra-curicular activities will be pay to play

    But i thought the wonderfully progressive town of montclair increased taxes to subsidize public pool fees, yet they are going to make the low income student spay for sports???? What sort of evil capitalist system are they running?

  87. ditto says:

    Montclair makes no sense to me – hi taxes without a good high school. Whats the point?

  88. Essex says:

    86. Nope. Not at all. In fact it will hurt folks that rely on the public schools. I’ve only got one kid and can flip for private school tuition without too much trouble. Families with more than two kids are screwed.

  89. Libtard says:

    “yet they are going to make the low income student spay for sports???? ”

    I’ll believe it when I see it. Every time I think they are a doing something fair for the rest of us, I find out that there is some kind of subsidy for those who can’t afford it.

  90. NJGator says:

    Cat 87 – Those kids will get a “scholarship” so they don’t have to pay. My guess is that anyone eligible for free or reduced price lunch will be exempt from the fee. And that any other family who feels they need assistance will be able to confidentially ask the Prinicpal, and the fee will be waived.

    The board is estimating that they can raise about $200,000 with this. I am wondering if anyone has crunched the numbers to see how many kids won’t be able to pay. My guess is no.

  91. Libtard says:

    Ditto,

    It’s the Meathead complex. Sending your kids to an integrated high school is much more important than sending your kids to a better performing school. I know it sounds crazy, but this is what many of our neighbors believe in. I want the integration, but wouldn’t mind seeing some decent performance as well. On a local level, we spend a bloody fortune to close the achievement gap and our annual improvements always fall in the range of statistical noise.

  92. NJGator says:

    ditto 88 – The BOE has actually awoken to the fact that the high schools, and to a lesser extent, the middle schools, are a problem. Some of them went publicly on the record last night as being comfortable with making massive elementary school level cuts while leaving the HS and Middle Schools mostly intact.

    Edgemont will likely close so that Renaissance can take over their building, and the Rand Building currently used by Renaissance will be given to the HS. This will give the HS the space to create all of the smaller leanring communities that the prinicpal and board feel are important to improve the school and narrow the achievement gap for the disadvantaged kids.

  93. JJ says:

    Why have sports at all? What purpose does it serve. Lot more efficient to close up school at 3pm.

    NJGator says:
    February 16, 2011 at 3:11 pm

    Cat 87 – Those kids will get a “scholarship” so they don’t have to pay. My guess is that anyone eligible for free or reduced price lunch will be exempt from the fee. And that any other family who feels they need assistance will be able to confidentially ask the Prinicpal, and the fee will be waived.

  94. ditto says:

    Well, as someone moving from NYC looking for value from my property taxes, i.e. a good school system at all three levels, Montclair ain’t on my shopping list.

  95. Libtard says:

    “Lot more efficient to close up school at 3pm. ”

    Sounds good in principal, but a lot of the economically disadvantaged kids play sports. I actually heard one of our town council members say that these kids will get into trouble (sic. commit crimes) if they are not busy participating in sports. This was the same excuse they tried to use in support of purchasing a building for a community center for 3.5 million last Spring.

  96. 1987 Condo Buyer says:

    #84. well, kids in Irvington and East Orange had access to Catholic grammar schools for about $1,900 per year. real cost at $4,000, so there was a subsidiary provided by the other churches in the deanery or archdiocese. Public schools there are, what? $12,000 per student per year, $16,000? more? State could educate each kid for a third the cost…instead the schools eventually had to close and send those kids into public school system..increasing costs for the State.

    So much could have been saved if the poor (say making under $40,000 or so) were allowed to send kids to similar schools.

  97. Libtard says:

    As for the hyperbole Gator, this is the headline from the Montclair Times.

    “If state funding is lost, then two schools will shut”

    I suppose they are exaggerating too. Of course, I don’t have time to fact check everything as I’m trying to get work done while simultaneously trying to baptize the moronic neighbors so they can see the truth.

  98. Painhrtz says:

    Gator and Lib way to pull the eject lever at the right time. Looks like Monklair is finally going to get its’ cumuppence. Wonder if the snooty hoi poloi start to realize 27k just doesn’t buy what it used to?

  99. Essex says:

    If you think that the cuts in public education will just affect Montclair you are deluded. You probably also think that the state of NJ will pay for a gold-plated private education for your special little one.

  100. yo'me says:

    You can live anywhere and send your kid to a good public school

    C signs bill into law, expanding parents’ public school choices

  101. Essex says:

    101. Anywhere that ‘participates’ a big caveat.

  102. young buck says:

    So you admit that the quality of public school education will only further deteriorate once competition is introduced (i.e. scared of competition). My point exactly.

    Also, your concern for those less fortunate than yourself is admirable, but here’s a novel idea: If you can’t afford more than two kids, then don’t have more than two kids.

    89. Essex says:
    February 16, 2011 at 3:07 pm
    86. Nope. Not at all. In fact it will hurt folks that rely on the public schools. I’ve only got one kid and can flip for private school tuition without too much trouble. Families with more than two kids are screwed.

  103. Essex says:

    Most people are probably too dumb to see what will happen to the state once the schools are gutted. Me, I’ll just move.

  104. NJGator says:

    Lib 98 – Lazy journalists. The two schools were on Alvarez’s a la carte menu of things that could be cut to save another $2M. There were actually $2.9M of proposed cuts on that list. They were not recommendations, they were options for the board to choose between.

    I was there and listed to several of the members of the board emphatically state that they would not support closing Renaissance.

  105. Libtard says:

    Gator,

    Not arguing with ya. Just explaining where I got it from.

    Essex,

    Glen Ridge gets zero aid from the state. There is a reason we moved there. They also have zero ratables meaning that they are not subject to the whims of an increasingly more unstable economy. There is a reason we wouldn’t choose anyplace else. The 4th best school system in the state with no help from Trenton. Sounds like a future recipe for success. Should also help prop up their property values. Across the border in Montclair…it all comes crashing down.

  106. Libtard says:

    Too bad, I still have to pay taxes to Montclair. I only hope the good restaurants remain open. :P

  107. Essex says:

    107. Best to you and yours.

  108. Libtard says:

    Essex: Likewise.

  109. yo'me says:

    Media reports saying two Iranian war ships planned to make way to Syria through the Suez Canal added more impetus to buying.

    Light, sweet crude for March delivery /quotes/comstock/21n!f:cl\h11 (CLH11 85.00, +0.68, +0.81%) rose 87 cents, or 1%, to $85.18 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

    After news that Israel’s foreign minister had announced Iran’s war ship intentions, calling it a “provocation” by the Iranian regime, oil neared $86.

  110. Painhrtz says:

    Essex Slim Pickens and more appropriate at least for Monklair

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcW_Ygs6hm0

  111. Barbara says:

    NJ summed up: Nice houses, bad schools. Bad schools, nice houses.

    Time to the dream die and just get my kids into a school system with no gang activity. 1970s split level, here we come!

  112. NJGator says:

    Barbara – Are you going to renovate and decorate true to it’s historical period? Should I start scouting out the avocado green and mustard yellow fixtures for you?

  113. ditto says:

    I wouldn’t worry about the Iranian navy – its latest technological advance is the dreadnought.

  114. Libtard says:

    I know a place that has great white metal railings. You know…the kind with the fleur de lys?

  115. Painhrtz says:

    Barbara, I hear scrap yards are POS capes are a great place to mine for off colored appliances

  116. JJ says:

    Then make them clean and scrub schools after three pm to pay for their free breakfast and lunch.

    Libtard says:
    February 16, 2011 at 3:19 pm

    “Lot more efficient to close up school at 3pm. ”

    Sounds good in principal, but a lot of the economically disadvantaged kids play sports. I actually heard one of our town council members say that these kids will get into trouble (sic. commit crimes) if they are not busy participating in sports. This was the same excuse they tried to use in support of purchasing a building for a community center for 3.5 million last Spring.

  117. Anon E. Moose says:

    DL [83];

    All you need to know about the NAR’s ceredibility, more pointedly its lack thereof — whether you attribute this to incompetence or malice, can be summed up in the title of the 2005 book written by then-chief economist David Learah, Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?: The Boom Will Not Bust and Why Property Values Will Continue to Climb Through the End of the Decade – And How to Profit From Them. *ahem* *cough*

    After which the housing bubble promptly began to collapse.

    His attempt to save face was delivered in 2007, under the insightful milquetoast title All Real Estate Is Local: What You Need to Know to Profit in Real Estate – in a Buyer’s and a Seller’s Market. To paraphrase a recent president, ‘Heckuva job, Davie.’

    NAR Members: Liberty Travel 20 years on…

  118. JJ says:

    All real estate is local. For instance Las Vegas real estate does not exist in New Jersey and Miami Real Estate does not exist in New York. The NAR is just stating a fact.

  119. Anon E. Moose says:

    Lib [96];

    Sounds good in principal, but a lot of the economically disadvantaged kids play sports. I actually heard one of our town council members say that these kids will get into trouble (sic. commit crimes) if they are not busy participating in sports. This was the same excuse they tried to use in support of purchasing a building for a community center for 3.5 million last Spring.

    I’m old enough to remember that argument for Bill Clinton’s Midnight Basketball. I never did get a straight answer as to what, presuming they were given federally funded lighted outdoor courts until midnight, was supposed to prevent the adrenaline-addled yutes from then making whatever mischief was to have been avoided by their playing ball till the wee hours.

  120. Anon E. Moose says:

    JJ [120];

    The land may be local (‘unique’, even), but the broader price trend is universal and immutable.

  121. homeboken says:

    121 – Ask the owner of any project based section 8 property what he thinks about having a basketball court on-site.

    I can speak frome experience, when the sun goes down, there is no ball playing at all. Unless you coung slinging rocks a sport.

  122. Essex says:

    113. Nationwide they seem to rank pretty well as whole. I don’t know if that says more about the state of the nation. But NJ schools could be a lot worse.

  123. make money says:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dG8S3JVofBY

    [121],
    I guess dancing is like basketball unless you bump into someone like Clot at a young age.

  124. Barbara says:

    What conclusions am I to draw? People with bad taste emphasis education? Criminals have great taste but are stupid?

    Stu, Gator, these houses are mostly historically untouched! Time capsule gems….right down to the green astro turf indoor/outdoor patios! I won’t pay more for the pink flamingos, such a cliche!

  125. Barbara says:

    errrm, emphasize, even…

  126. Barbara says:

    113. Essex,
    they rank well but town by town, there are extreme disparities. Large pockets of major suck next to smaller pockets of serious quality, the likes of which are not typically observed in the rest of the country. That’s why we rank so high.

  127. Shore Guy says:

    Intramural sports should be expanded an should be free. Interscholastic sports should be private clubs or pay to play. And NO I don’t hate sports or jocks. I played throughout HS we won a state championship and came close another time and I routinely wear a college letterman’s ring and a bowlb ring

  128. chicagofinance says:

    NJ Gov. Chris Christie slams both parties for lack of budget discipline in DC speech
    Last Updated: 5:22 PM, February 16, 2011

    Posted: 1:06 PM, February 16, 2011

    WASHINGTON — As Republicans and Democrats do battle over President Barack Obama’s 2012 budget, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie took both parties to task for their lack of fiscal discipline in a speech to the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C., Wednesday.

    “Leadership today in America has to be about doing the big things and being courageous,” Christie said. “You can’t fix these problems if you don’t talk about them. I look at what’s happening in Washington, D.C., right now and I’m worried.”

    Christie’s 38-minute speech to the conservative think-tank was entitled “It’s Time to Do the Big Things,” and in it he called out leaders from both parties in the nation’s capital for not being serious about the country’s out-of-control deficits, specifically pointing to the lack of discussion on big entitlement programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.

    “We are going to have to raise the retirement age,” he said. “Uh oh. I said it, and I’m still here. I am not vaporized into the carpet.”

    On Obama, Christie said, “I was looking for my president to stand up and challenge me and it was a disappointment that he didn’t,” referring to the president’s State of the Union speech in January. Christie noted the speech contained no mention of entitlement reform.

    Christie labeled Obama’s proposed investments in high-speed rail and high-speed internet access as “the candy of American politics,” adding, “if we don’t fix the big things we’re not going to be able to care about the niceties of life, the ‘investments.'”

    The New Jersey governor also said it was “put up or shut up time” for freshmen House Republicans he campaigned for last fall, adding that if they do not exhibit leadership on big issues, the next time they see him in their campaign district it will be “with my arm around their primary opponent.”

    And he accused both parties of playing political games with the recent budget debate, with neither side wanting to go first on proposing serious entitlement reform.

    Christie did however praise several governors across the nation for making hard choices, specifically singling out New York’s new Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo — who, Christie noted, has high approval numbers despite his tough talk on spending and budgets since entering office.

    Since he was elected in 2009, the tough-talking Christie has been vaulted into the national spotlight, becoming a darling of conservatives for addressing spending and budget deficits in his own state, as well as tackling entitlement reforms.

    Christie set about eliminating an inherited $11 billion budget deficit by cutting aid to the state’s education system and proposing cuts to the pension system for state workers. He also canned a proposed $9 billion train tunnel between his state and New York City because he said the state could not afford it.

    His policies have made him deeply unpopular with his state’s teachers and public employee unions, but seem to have gone over well with New Jersey voters. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released Wednesday showed him with 51 percent approval among voters in his home state, with 39 percent disapproving of the job he is doing.

    Christie, 48, a former federal prosecutor, is also gaining buzz as a possible candidate for national office in 2012 or 2016, though he has repeatedly denied any interest in running for president in 2012. He is seen by many as a near-certainty to be included on the eventual Republican nominee’s vice presidential shortlist.

    The first question posed to him after his speech Wednesday inevitably concerned a possible run for president in 2012. “Well that took a long time, didn’t it,” he said to laughs.

    Turning serious, he noted that many people run for president because of political opportunism. “I’m not stupid, I see the opportunity, that’s not a reason to run,” he said, before repeating his familiar line of not believing that he is ready at this time.

    Told by one questioner that proposing entitlement reform in Washington was “politically fatal,” Christie noted that his own poll numbers had gone up since taking on the budget fight in his own state, and that Americans simply wanted to be talked to like adults.

    “I don’t believe it’s fatal. In fact I think you’re going to be rewarded for courage. The public understand, I’m telling you, they get it. They want shared sacrifice,” he said. “I think there’s something different going on in our country right now.”

  129. chicagofinance says:

    albani: this really sucks…..

    Thomas doesn’t deny he’s unofficially consulting Knicks’ Dolan

    Isiah Thomas did not deny he was unofficially consulting with Knicks owner James Dolan on the Carmelo Anthony situation and suggested standing pat won’t win a championship.

    “Everyone agrees they need to keep improving to get to a championship level,” Thomas said of the Knicks on Miami radio Tuesday. “I don’t think anyone’s saying, ‘This is it.’ I do think the organization wants to improve to get better and get to the next to level.

    “But for me to speculate on this Carmelo situation, I just don’t think it would be proper to insert myself in such a public way knowing what I know.”

    Thomas added, “In order to get to a championship level, which every team aspires to get to, you try to get the best players and try to get as many as you possibly can and see if you can win it.”

    The Post reported earlier this month that Dolan has not exercised the final year on team president Donnie Walsh’s contract because the owner still has Thomas on his radar.

    Asked if he’ll be employed by the Knicks in the next five years, Thomas coyly said, “You ask me to be as honest as I can and I will be brutally honest with you. I don’t think anyone will say where they will be five years from now. But wherever I am in five years, I will be physically and emotionally prepared for whatever challenge is presented to me.”

    Thomas, who as head coach at Florida International is in last place in the Sun Belt Conference at 4-9, has plotted a Knicks return, sources say, ever since he left the organization more than two years ago.

    The Post reported last week that NBA commissioner David Stern is lobbying behind the scenes to have Dolan keep Walsh for next season.

    Thomas was asked point-blank by radio host Sid Rosenberg if he’s advising Dolan, specifically on Anthony.

    “The conversations I have with any of my friends are always private and confidential,” Thomas said. “The conversations I have with friends and people that I know, those are private conversations.”

    Thomas said the names being tossed about now in a ‘Melo deal — with Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Landry Fields and Anthony Randolph all being mentioned — are fluid.

    “I’m not at the negotiating table,” Thomas said. “What goes on in those negotiations, that deal changes every two minutes and every hour. I don’t think any of us can be safe on saying what will and won’t happen and who’s in the deal and who’s not in the deal.

    “It’s all speculation right now and you’ll hear more speculation.”

    Though Thomas said Walsh has “done a great job,” the former Knicks and Pacers coach was lukewarm about Mike D’Antoni.

    Asked if D’Antoni coached both sides of the ball, Thomas said, “I’ve never played for Mike D’Antoni, that I don’t know. (But) you’ve got to be able to coach both sides of the ball. … You’ve got to be good enough to coach both sides of the ball if you want to win championships. That is very difficult and that’s why when you look at coaching, you have it pieced off: Some coach defense, some coach offense. But very few have the ability to do both sides of the ball.”

    Chris Mullin and assistant GM Allan Houston have also been mentioned as future Knicks presidents.

    “They definitely have a great understanding of the game,” Thomas said. “It’s just a matter will it be the right situation or the right fit when they come upon it.”

    When Rosenberg introduced Thomas, he called him FIU coach and Knicks assistant GM. Thomas did not correct Rosenberg.

    Later, Thomas said he thought Rosenberg had said “former GM.”=

  130. make money says:

    ChiFi,

    Denver’s got to be getting nervous here pretty soon. You can only play poker with [New York] so much before you become Toronto or Cleveland.”

    In Donnie I trust.

  131. Wildie says:

    Nice Middlesex County Comp Killer. Looks like a nice house in a good town, too. Time to buy?
    Sold 1/30/2007: $465K
    Listed now: $349K

  132. serenity now says:

    To all who responded to Post #3 , thanks for the valuable insight regarding
    land purchase.

  133. chicagofinance says:

    I guess Jim (genetic lottery) Dolan does not…..

    132.make money says:
    February 16, 2011 at 5:46 pm
    ChiFi, In Donnie I trust.

  134. Al Mossberg says:

    The only reason NJ schools rank high is because the private school kids carry the public education morons on their back.

    F_ck NJ. Its time to call the place exactly what it is. A corrupt, over priced, over taxed rats nest. My game plan is to spread my _ss cheeks for 10 years then get out.

  135. Essex says:

    128. Believe me I doubt all numbers fed through any of the largely un-necessary government reporting bureaus.

  136. Essex says:

    Spend time with your kid and you can tell if they have a clue. Or not.

  137. Wildie says:

    Actually, the private schools don’t take the tests, by which the schools are ranked. Nice try, but New Jersey’s public schools are among the best in the nation, despite being ranked 48th in the country when it comes to state aid to the schools. Where does the $$ come from, then? Property taxes.

  138. homeboken says:

    134 – 8200 annual tax bill for that 4BR, 1.5BA home in East Brunswick. Call me when the price starts with a 2, I suspect that a detailed inspection will turn up at least 40k of work that needs to be done.

  139. Shore Guy says:

    Did I just hear that Neil Young died?

  140. gator (72)-

    What a surprise it will be to this guy when you and your lawyer hand him his head on a plate.

  141. cat (75)-

    Idiot, haven’t you learned anything here? Debt is wealth. :)

    “Nice! Debt doesn’t matter, right?”

  142. Pat says:

    Here, Essex, this is for Die Frau.

  143. stu (82)-

    After spending a good deal of Monday in the People’s Republic, I’d say that they are too sedated, depressed, granola-constipated and z0loft-addled to go to the mattresses over anything of real importance.

  144. gator (85)-

    At that point, these damn kids will begin to learn some things of use…like fighting and organizing protection rackets.

    Montklair will essentially become Irvington with manners.

    “The school that likely will be closed will be the public elementary school Montessori, Edgemont. They will cram those kids into Nishuane and Hillside and we’ll then have a K-2 school with over 650 students.”

  145. jj (94)-

    Evidently, you must have seen Montklair HS’ teams perform. On the odd occasions when our teams at N. Hunterdon play them, everybody knows it will be an easy “W”.

    “Why have sports at all? What purpose does it serve. Lot more efficient to close up school at 3pm.”

  146. lib (96)-

    The way Montklair’s soccer 11 play should be classified as a crime.

    “I actually heard one of our town council members say that these kids will get into trouble (sic. commit crimes) if they are not busy participating in sports.”

  147. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Ten years ago, I called lockstep a “dead man walking.”

    Now Fortune is also reporting that its days are numbered.

    http://management.fortune.cnn.com/2011/02/16/lawyers-say-farewell-to-that-guaranteed-raise/

    Nice to see they came around to my way of thinking.

  148. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [148] debt

    “Montklair will essentially become Irvington with manners.”

    I thought that was Bloomfield?

  149. Essex says:

    137. Part of the problem. You.

  150. chi (131)-

    This is the sports equivalent of “Rick James sucking on crack pipe again”.

    “Thomas doesn’t deny he’s unofficially consulting Knicks’ Dolan…”

  151. What? Rick James died?

  152. NJGator says:

    Nom 152 – Manners in Bloomfield? Clearly you are not from Essex County.

  153. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [156] gator

    and your point?

  154. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    This guy did die. Veteran character actor. Struck me as the quintessinal New Yorker.

    http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/41633243/ns/today-entertainment/?gt1=43001

  155. chicagofinance says:

    Neil Young at the peak of his powers…..
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3XphZydaPj4

  156. chicagofinance says:

    BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAA!!!!!!!!

    WSJ
    U.S. NEWS
    FEBRUARY 17, 2011
    University of the South Slashes Tuition, Cites Economy

    By KEVIN HELLIKER

    In a move likely to reverberate among America’s top-tier private colleges, the University of the South said Wednesday it will slash tuition and fees for the coming school year by 10%, or about $4,600.

    Commonly known as Sewanee, for the Tennessee town where it is based, University of the South said the cut represents an acknowledgment of “new economic realities.”

    “Higher education is on the verge of pricing itself beyond the reach of more and more families,” John M. McCardell Jr., the university’s president, said in a press release.

    If not the first, Sewanee is the largest private school to institute such price cuts in recent years, said Tony Pals, director of communications for the National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities.

    “It’s a bold move that will have the potential to put competitive pressure on Sewanee’s peer institutions,” said Mr. Pals.

    In 2010-11, tuition at private colleges rose at an average rate of 4.5%, the second-smallest increase since 1972, Mr. Pals said. The smallest increase since that year—4.3%—came in 2009-10.

    University of the South raised tuition by 5% last year but decided to change course this year.

    Asked if the cut—which applies to students in all classes—represented a challenge to other private universities, Sewanee spokeswoman Laurie L. Saxton said, “It’s not an explicit challenge. But we’ve actually heard from some board members of other universities that I think will bring it up with their respective boards.”

    Owned by 28 dioceses of the Episcopal Church, University of the South ranks among the nation’s top liberal arts colleges, having produced 25 Rhodes Scholars. It was ranked 32nd among liberal arts schools by U.S. News and World Report.

    Sewanee’s Ms. Saxton said the university wouldn’t need to dip into its endowment to accommodate the cuts. Already, she said, news of the impending move had precipitated an increase in financial support from alumni and supporters of the university.

    She said Sewanee also expected the move to increase awareness of the college and possibly boost the number of applicants for the school year starting in the fall of 2012. For 425 spots in next year’s freshman class, Sewanee received about 3,000 applications, she said.

    Sewanee junior Kelly O’Mara said the tuition decrease would lower the amount of debt she and her parents will carry beyond her graduation in 2012. “When you’re paying for college, even a decrease in my final year will help,” said Ms. O’Mara, a studio-art and American-studies major who also holds a job on campus.

    Some higher-education experts say the strategy could bring Sewanee accolades without actually costing it much money. That’s because financial aid is so prevalent at many colleges that few students actually pay the full tuition price.

    “Institutions that are already discounting for most students have a reasonable opportunity to cut their sticker prices without actually diminishing their net revenues,” said Sandy Baum, a senior fellow at George Washington University School of Education. “I suspect some other schools will do something similar,” she add, “But I don’t expect it to be the most popular strategy.”

    Write to Kevin Helliker at kevin.helliker@wsj.com

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