The cost of open space

From the Star Ledger:

In many N.J. towns that undergo revaluations, homeowners end up paying more open space taxes

In the nation’s most densely populated state, Garden State residents value their space.

But they may not be so thrilled about what they are paying for it. The reason is a tiny municipal tax for open space — pennies per $100 of a home’s valuation — that, left unchecked, has added up to big bucks in some towns.

The result is homeowners in 50 New Jersey towns have paid out some $15 million more to preserve land, farms and historic and recreational sites than they had in previous years. In one town last year, the tax bills jumped by more than $150 for some homeowners.

The quirk comes into play when towns conduct revaluations. The problem is towns — which make adjustments to prevent other slices of the tax pie from skyrocketing — fail to do the same for the open space tax. Because that tax’s rate is tied to property values, the levy goes up when properties appreciate.

The longer a town goes between revaluations, the more homes are worth and the bigger the bite taken by the open space tax.

Over the last five years, 71 New Jersey towns with open space taxes underwent property revaluations. Nearly three-quarters of them failed to adjust their open space tax rates, leading to a 128 percent increase in their combined levies — a windfall of more than $15.5 million. By contrast, municipal taxes in those towns rose an average of 12 percent.

“I don’t think there was any malicious intent in their error,” said Librizzi, who currently serves as the tax assessor for Verona, Nutley and North Caldwell. “I don’t think the general public completely understands how the open space tax is calculated.”

This entry was posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Property Taxes. Bookmark the permalink.

219 Responses to The cost of open space

  1. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Many in Pequannock, Pompton Lakes begin the clean-up

    Residents of flood-battered Pompton Lakes and Pequannock returned to their homes on Sunday, as flood waters receded and left in their wake piles of soggy debris and streets caked in muck.

    By daybreak, residents were already busy washing down driveways and hauling waterlogged furniture, appliances and Sheetrock to the curb. Many homes had taken on five feet of water — suggesting that this flood was every bit as damaging as the one that occurred a year ago.

    In Pompton Lakes, an emergency command center was set up at Dawes Highway and Lincoln Avenue, stocked with cleanup kits and bags of lime. In Pequannock, residents can pick up cleanup kits at a relief center set up at the the First Reformed Church across the street from Borough Hall.

    “If residents got water on their property, they’ll need to clean up and disinfect,” said Vito Gadaleta, the Pompton Lakes borough administrator who was distributing the cleanup kits. Otherwise, mold, or other harmful bacteria could set in and create a health hazard, he said.

  2. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    Home price dip leads JPMorgan to downgrade market

    Investment bank JPMorgan Chase Friday downgraded its expectations that housing prices will improve.

    The researchers now say their base home price forecast now shows at peak-to-trough a 34% decline for the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller national index. That marks an additional 3% to 4% drop from fourth quarter to a bottom by the first half of 2011.

    “This is the first downgrade to our forecasts in the past 10 months, driven by bigger-than-expected price declines in recent months and increasing uncertainty around the supply-demand imbalance,” said analysts from the JPMorgan U.S. Fixed Income Strategy division.

    The researchers add that home prices are expected to continue a downward trend in the spring, but they do expect to see moderate improvements in the summer, leaving overall home prices down 2% to 3% in 2011.

  3. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    Congress eyes flood insurance fix as tsunami nears

    As a tsunami bore down on the western United States, a congressional panel explored ways to fix the broken National Flood Insurance Program, which covers more than 5.6 million U.S. property owners.

    Since Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the NFIP has been nearly $18 billion in debt. Critics complain that it subsidizes people who live and build in dangerous and environmentally sensitive flood zones from the coasts to the Midwest.

    Repeated attempts to overhaul the program have failed, but Republican Rep. Judy Biggert is trying again as chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives insurance subcommittee. She held a hearing on the issue on Friday.

    “There’s no question the program is in dire need of reform,” Biggert said at the session, noting that the NFIP “continues to be financially unstable” and that one of her key goals will be to “eliminate taxpayer risk.”

    The tsunami provides a reminder of the dangers of flooding, the most common and costly type of natural disaster in America, said Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, a Democrat.

    “It’s time that we do an overhaul of the NFIP. Something has to be done. We’re $18 billion underwater,” he said.

  4. grim says:

    From the Daily Journal:

    Temp jobs help fuel N.J. economic recovery

    Many of the newest jobs these days come with an expiration date.

    Facing economic uncertainty, many companies have turned to temporary staffing agencies to meet work demands without taking on costly health care benefits and state-mandated unemployment and worker’s compensation payments.

    Temporary help has been “the main driver of job growth” in the professional and business services industry during the past 18 months, according to a February report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    The professional and business services industry added 546,000 jobs in the U.S. in that time. In New Jersey, temporary employment services added jobs while other industries cut staff.

    Analysts say that could mean companies that use staffing agencies to provide temporary help might soon bolster their own payrolls.

    “As companies gain confidence in their business and see opportunities for growth, they typically first employ workers from the employment agencies, which include temporary workers,” New Jersey Bureau of Labor Market Information analyst John Ehret wrote in an outlook report released in November. “As employers’ business, as well as confidence pick up, the ‘temps’ tend to be hired as ‘permanents.'”

  5. Confused In NJ says:

    Good Morning NJ

  6. Overwhelming stench of death in the air.

    Doom is nigh.

  7. Happy, happy, joy, joy:

    “From Operation LeakS’ site, http://bankofamericasuck.com, here is the initial release of what appears to be a whistleblower’s (former employee) disclosure that Brian Moynihan’s firm is lying to the Federal government. The punchline is that this appears to be a concerted effort from the ground up to hide foreclosure data from auditors and the Fed in order to obtain select preferential treatment in a variety of housing related axes, in many instances to accelerate foreclosures. As the whistleblower summarizes: “Balboa Insurance/Countrywide knowingly hiding foreclosure information from federal auditors during the federal takeovers of IndyMac Federal (a subsidiary of OneWest) and Aurora Loan Services (a subsidiary of Lehman Bros Holdings), falsifying loan documentation in order to proceed with foreclosures by fixing letter cycles in the system, reporting incorrect volumes to all of their lenders and to the federal auditors to avoid fines for falling behind on Loan Modifications, purposefully and knowingly adjusting premiums for REO insurance for their corporate clients while denying forebearances for individual borrowers, etc, etc, etc. In addition, if anyone can get me a copy of the image of the hard drive that Jullian Assange reportedly has from the BofA executive, it will not take a dozen financial analysis to decipher it like I’ve read in the news. I could find all the dirt on that hard drive within a week.” We’ll see if Assange steps up. In the meantime we expect Brian Moynihan, or rather Ken Lewis who was in control back then, to pull a Dick Fuld and tell a Congressional hearing he had no idea any of this was happening, leading to the termination of some mid-level employee, notably the person who invalidated the following concerns: “I’m just a little concerned about the impact this has on the department and company. Why are we removing all record of this error?… There is always going to be the paper trail when one of these sent documents come back, this to me, seems to be a huge red flag for the auditors…This just doesn’t seem right to me.” That’s ok – it will most certainly seem right to everyone in “law enforcement.” In the meantime, note the date: November 2010. This is not a Ken Lewis transgression (as we previously assumed) – this is all Brian, all the way.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/operation-leaks-releases-initial-bofa-emails-indicating-premeditated-intent-deceive-governme

  8. Saudi just sent 1,000 troops into Bahrain.

    Non-issue, right?

  9. jamil says:

    9, they have done that before so that itself is not big issue.

  10. gary says:

    “This is the first downgrade to our forecasts in the past 10 months, driven by bigger-than-expected price declines in recent months and increasing uncertainty around the supply-demand imbalance,” said analysts from the JPMorgan U.S. Fixed Income Strategy division.

    Bigger-than-expected…. Didn’t we hear that in 2008, 2009 and 2010?

  11. NJ Toast says:

    Debt,

    Do you think the sale of Balboa to QBE will now be derailed and if so, what would you guess will be next steps for BOA?

  12. gary says:

    The average residential property tax bill was $9,735 last year in Bergen County, an increase of 3.8 percent from the year before. That makes Bergen the most expensive county for property owners in the state, according to data released this week by the New Jersey Department of Community Affairs.

    Proximity to NYC, granite, stainless steel and all that stuff… you know… the price to pay since it’s different here and we’re all affluent.

  13. toast (12)-

    I think the Balboa sale will go through, and BAC will continue to do its part in the destruction of everything, while their executives continue to enjoy record pay/bonus packages.

  14. Until the bank runs start.

  15. I hate Man U, but the 11 Ferguson put out on Saturday- and the game plan he gave them- was absolute brilliance.

  16. gary says:

    Japan, the Middle East, North Africa, the floods here locally… tough to feel optimistic this Monday morning.

  17. jamil says:

    gary, Yes We Can

  18. gary says:

    jamil,

    lol! Classic!

  19. relo says:

    HELLO all you zombies and mutants out there, it’s Uncle Clot coming to you live, yes LIVE, from the Nompound via HAM radio. We’ll get back to your favorite post-Armageddon hits after this brief weather and traffic report. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, and who isn’t these days, it’s NUCLEAR WINTER out there, but it least it’s killed off the locusts. If you’re planning on traveling, stay off The Road as it’s beset on all sides by roving packs of cannibals. If you must go, use the route through Kentucky as, you know, they started off with fewer teeth (quack, quack). Now, back to the music with Tool’s “Aenima” and by the way, I told you so.

    Debt Supernova says:
    March 13, 2011 at 9:20 am
    relo (49)-

    Gotta put that on my end of the world soundtrack.

  20. tbiggs says:

    #4 grim –

    One of the complaints the Portugese protesters are making is that they can only get month-to-month jobs. I don’t know, but I would guess that Portugal mandates generous benefits and has rigid rules about laying off workers. Why else would companies go through the hassles of continuous hiring and training?

  21. Confused In NJ says:

    17.gary says:
    March 14, 2011 at 7:30 am
    Japan, the Middle East, North Africa, the floods here locally… tough to feel optimistic this Monday morning.

    Not to worry, Ben has the printing press going full tilt.

  22. JJ says:

    S&P and Dow futures indicating 80+ points on the downside for the open.

    PPT on standby this morning, watch the open.

  23. Kettle1^2 says:

    Relo

    I prefer Tool’s Right In Two.

  24. Juice Box says:

    re: #20 – no worries even the German Hunters of radioactive wild boars get bailed out these days.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503543_162-20014108-503543.html

  25. safe as houses says:

    Cereal is for rich people.

    Soon dining out will mean going to Costco on the weekends and eating the samples for dinner.

  26. chicagofinance says:

    That was me looking at Essex…..

    Confused In NJ says:
    March 13, 2011 at 10:46 pm
    Looks like the second reactor contaiment building just blew.

  27. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (20) relo

    Classic.

  28. Juice Box says:

    New recovery business model for Japan will be tourism just like in Kiev.

    2 NIGHTS WEEKEND BREAK IN KIEV AND CHERNOBYL VISIT

    From GBP 349 * per person from London
    From EUR 389 * per person from Brussels, Amsterdam, Berlin
    From EUR 409 * per person from Helsinki, Stockholm

    Price includes:
    – Round trip Air tickets in Economy Class to and from Kiev – arrival Friday, departure Sunday.
    – Airport pick up and drop off (including visiting Chernobyl Museum, if time allows).
    – Accommodation in the down town of Kiev (maximum 10 min walk to the central street).
    – Chernobyl Tour on Saturday – including lunch and free drink after the tour outside of 30 km zone.
    To book (check availability) please contact us.

    (*The price is per person based on the dbl/twin accommodation in a studio apartment.)

    http://www.tourkiev.com/chernobyltour/

  29. safe as houses says:

    Debt,

    I was in Bridgewater this Saturday. No wonder you are so negative. I have never seen so many people who looked sad, stressed, depressed, fatigued. I used to shop in Bridgewater there when I lived in the area and the people did not have that look about them.

  30. chicagofinance says:

    Future leaders of Amerika (JJ Edition):

    SAT ‘cheat’ ring probed
    Kids attend posh LI school
    By SELIM ALGAR and DAREH GREGORIAN
    A group of students at a prestigious Long Island high school are being eyed in a college-test cheating ring, The Post has learned.

    The kids, seniors at John L. Miller-Great Neck North HS, allegedly tried to improve their college prospects by hiring a third party to take their SAT exams, sources said.

    A Great Neck school-board source confirmed the district is investigating the alleged cheaters.

    “There are hearings taking place right now that are ongoing,” the source said. “I know that the superintendent is talking to various people, including the principal and other administrators, to get to the bottom of what’s going on.

    “I know that they are looking into several students.”

    Among those under investigation, sources said, are two brothers, one a senior and the other already in college.

    The senior, who lives in nearby Kings Point and tools around town in an Infiniti, did not return several calls seeking comment. Relatives at his home declined comment.

    Sources told The Post that the boy hired someone from a top Midwestern university to take his SATs for him.

    Great Neck North Principal Bernard Kaplan declined to comment on the matter, and Superintendent Tom Dolan said policy prevented him from discussing any disciplinary issues involving students.

    The high school consistently ranks among the best in the country.

    “Cheating on your SAT sort of undermines the entire process of high school and college admission,” said one school-board member. “It’s serious.”

    Students at the manicured high school — where teenagers whiz about in BMWs and Range Rovers — said rumors of an SAT-cheating ring have been circulating for months.

    “Everyone knows about it,” said a female senior. “You get the feeling that its widespread, and not just here in Great Neck.”

    “They are trying to keep it quiet,” said a male senior, a classmate of one of those accused of cheating on the college-entrance test. “It’s embarrassing for the school.”

    The scandal marks the second black eye in recent days for the school, which counts Francis Ford Coppola, designer Kenneth Cole and Olympic figure-skating champ Sarah Hughes as alumni.

    Last week, three grads were busted for allegedly robbing a drug dealer.

  31. chicagofinance says:

    ever go into a Walmart?

    safe as houses says:
    March 14, 2011 at 8:23 am
    I have never seen so many people who looked sad, stressed, depressed, fatigued.

  32. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    UNG did a rev split that I just noticed. What timing. Before I checked this, I saw what appeared to be a doubling in price for this Nat gas etf and said WTF, the explosions did this???

  33. safe as houses says:

    #32 chifi

    I plead the 5th on that one :P

  34. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (18) Jj

    Heat map solid red. Mark Haynes said “what the hell did you expect?”

  35. gary says:

    If I was the commissioner of the NFL (provided that there was a season next year), this would be my halftime show:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1WEkjZWx-Q&feature=related

  36. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (34) safe

    I love Walmart. Makes me feel smart. Love to know that the place is dumber when I leave.

  37. Juice Box says:

    re # 31 – Nothing new except perhaps much harder to cheat today than a few decades ago when there was no picture ID drivers licenses. Back in the day one of the AP Honor students like myself “Kumar”was offered $500 to to take the SAT for a rich kid in another town. Kumar was already rich so he said perhaps I should do it, and I said only if the kid wants a 1300 because I will not study any harder than that. Nope 1400 said Kumar. I said so slacker wants to be in the 95th percentile? Kumar then said 90th percentile guys like me would never get a full scholarship or into an Ivy. I said wait a minute you and the other kid are already rich so what do you need a scholarship for? He said if he received a scholarship his Dad would buy him a new beemer and he supposes rich kid in next town will receive a new car too.

  38. Juice Box says:

    Closeup on Reactor #3 from Space.

    It looks more damaged than the #1 reactor. Hope you like plutonium with your tuna.

    http://a7.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc6/189491_10150106688152061_59306617060_6978235_7812028_n.jpg

  39. jamil says:

    from cnbc..

    dreams come true..reconstruction will be a boom.

    “A few years ago, a senior official at Japan’s finance ministry shocked a foreign guest by making a deliberately provocative statement. “What Japan’s economy needs is a really good earthquake,” he said.”

  40. Outofstater says:

    #17 “There’s a holdup in the Bronx. Brooklyn’s broken out in fights. There’s a traffic jam in Harlem that’s backed up to Jackson Heights. Mrs. Murphy’s short a child. Khruschev’s due at Idlewild…..”

  41. A.West says:

    Debt,
    Maybe now’s an apt time to change your pseudonym to “Debt Tsunami” or “Debt Meltdown”. Supernova is just too sunny and upbeat.

  42. Kettle1^2 says:

    Doom,

    The doom continues:

    The Pentagon was expected to announce that the aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan, which is sailing in the Pacific, passed through a radioactive cloud from stricken nuclear reactors in Japan, causing crew members on deck to receive a month’s worth of radiation in about an hour, government officials said Sunday.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/14/world/asia/14plume.html?_r=2

    By the way a second reactor at Fukushima exploded overnight and the video appears to show a steam explosion with large debris, very different then the first reactor explosion. This reactor was also a MOX reactor which is a much messier incident then the first reactor. Oh and radioactive cesium-137 and iodine-121 are being detected up to 60 miles off-shore. Those isotopes suggest that one of the reactors is critically damaged and may have the primary containment vessel breached. When the US nacvy tells it ships to pull back you need to pay close attention. Got iodine pills?
    I am guessing you want see the MSM talking about the fallout that is going to hit the US west coats in 5 – 7 days.

  43. dan says:

    Maybe Final Doom by Radiation

  44. dan says:

    Hmmmm. Seafood from Japan or the Gulf of Mexico……. I just can’t decide which is healthier.

  45. D2b says:

    Zero tollerance for anyone that cheats, just like West Point. Explain it the first day and have kids and their parents sign forms understanding it. There will still be folks that cheat but it will attach shame to those that get caught.

  46. Anon E. Moose says:

    D2B [47];

    It wouldn’t even be a matter of shame as clear-eyed understanding of the consequences of getting caught. Imagine if the colleges were more concerned about their integrity and that of their student body than getting one more full-freight-paying student who feels genuinely lucky to be there…

    Even if the consequences were “no ivy”, is 2 years at community college followed by a Bachelor’s from “Me Too U” school really the end of the world, even for Graydon III? More likely for his mother at the coffee klatch or dad at the counrty club.

  47. Shore Guy says:

    Take the seafood from Japan. It is sure to be free of bacteria.

  48. Shore Guy says:

    And, even when eaten chilled, it will warm you from the inside. In fact, It might give one a warm, glowing, feeling.

  49. Anon E. Moose says:

    Imagine this as spoken by Larry King:

    “Montclair, New Jersey, you’re on the air — go ahead please…”

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703597804576194772974777088.html?mod=WSJ_RealEstate_LeftTopNews

  50. Confused In NJ says:

    Maybe real estate will pick up after they start marketing air tight lead lined concrete bunkers with solar/wind power turbines & recycled purified air. In the expensive towns they can also include underground lead lined passageways to the best schools.

  51. Painhrtz says:

    29 Juice do you get your own radiation badge and Silkwood scrub down experience after the tour?

    Ket 43 that is the first thing I thought of when the Navy, who by the way can give two $hits about radiation exposure, is moving the 7th fleet to a safe stand off distance. The japs are fcked. Like I said on Friday if any one is better prepared to be irradiated than the Japanese tell me who. The folks in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, are still $hiting cesium pellets almost 70 years down the road. I wonder how the japanese girly men are dealing right now?

  52. Juice Box says:

    GE has volunteered to help the Japanese.

    Perhaps next time they won’t design a reactor with the cooling ponds for the
    fuel rods stored on top of the building. That is the part that exploded from the hydrogen release.

    An engineer from Osyter Creek was on a news show last night, said their reactor was same design electrical equipment in the basement and the cooling ponds on top.

    http://images.smh.com.au/2011/03/14/2231357/japan-reactor2.jpg

  53. Anon E. Moose says:

    Juice [54];

    I did a stint for PSEG and took a tour of Oyster Creek. One of the oddest things inside was certain areas that were taped off with orange “radiation area” tape (think “police line”). I asked my guide how effective the thin orange plastic web was at shielding the protons, and were they sure that 3″ of it was enough to do the job?

  54. Kettle1^2 says:

    Juice,

    a recent satellite photo of the second exploded reactor:
    http://a7.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc6/189491_10150106688152061_59306617060_6978235_7812028_n.jpg

    A casual visual inspection seems to show noticeably more damage to the second exploded reactor then the first. You have to wonder if the spent fuel pool was part of the debris ejected in that explosion.

  55. Kettle1^2 says:

    Juice,

    a video of the second reactor explosion.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_N-wNFSGyQ

    Compare it to the video of the first explosion. The second on seems to have much more debris involved and some large chunks are visible.

  56. JJ says:

    Back when I went to Great Neck people used to do that all the time. Remember, SAT scores effect teachers ratings, schools rating, property values etc. I recall one dumb football guy needed a certain SAT score to get into the college he wanted. His friend in Hawaii of all places took it. He was actually in NY and bragging I am taking SAT in Hawaii today. Also Great Neck even had a SAT prep class as part of school for free. They got busted for hiring an author of questions for upcoming SATs to tutor which is not allowed. Great Neck got in trouble but scores stood. This is not a rich issue. Remember there is something called a regents scholorship for above a certain SAT score. Worth paying to have test taken just for that. Even show shameless on showetime kid was taking multiple SATs.

    I honestly don’t see big deal. Rich kids in Great Neck would lets say for a Spanish test would hire my actual spanish teach as a tutor before tests and then magically they get As. Rich dad paid the teacher to come to house and basically show him what is on test. Poor kid, grabs carbon copy from trashcan jots down some answers on hand and both rich and poor kid score same result. Who is cheating? I say both. However, school would sayonly poor kid is cheating.

    chicagofinance says:
    March 14, 2011 at 8:23 am
    Future leaders of Amerika (JJ Edition):

    SAT ‘cheat’ ring probed
    Kids attend posh LI school
    By SELIM ALGAR and DAREH GREGORIAN
    A group of students at a prestigious Long Island high school are being eyed in a college-test cheating ring, The Post has learned.

  57. Kettle1^2 says:

    Juice 54

    I like the calm pleasant description of the oxidation of the zirconium cladding. That is a very exothermic reaction and also indicative of at least a partial meltdown

  58. Shore Guy says:

    I wonder what Zirconium futures look like today?

  59. Painhrtz says:

    shore they are blowing sky high, bad attempt a humor,
    my WWII vet neighbor said tsunami couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch, doesn’t care if it is a different generation

  60. Shore Guy says:

    If the spent-fuel storage loses water and the zirconium heats up, any added water will, as I recall, cause large amounts of hydrogen to form tus causing an explosion, thus heating the Zr to itself burn or explode. Lacking a steel containment vessel, I wonder if that is not a bigger problem than a partial meltdown. TMI had a partial meltdown, which stayed contained within the reactor vessel.

    Burning fuel rods in an unshielded pool, yikes!

  61. Kettle1^2 says:

    SHore,

    Look at my post at 56. There may be very little spent fuel left to burn. There appears to be substantial damage to the top of the concrete structure, unlike the first reactor. If there is fuel left what you just described is a very nasty possible outcome.

    How do they get cooling water back to the spent fuel pools without physically sending a person in? That would be suicidal for the person/s chosen.

  62. Shore Guy says:

    The Dirty Dozen. If you survive, you go free.

  63. Shore Guy says:

    Kettle,

    I recall that someone at Princeton wrote a paper awhile ago about North Korea’s spent fuel rod storage and corrosion problem. If I hae an opportunity later, I will try to find it on my hrd drive or online.

  64. Anon E. Moose says:

    Juice [54];

    That diagram answers a question I had – if it was ‘just’ a hydrogen explosion (as opposed to a nuclear one), where the hell did the hydrogen come from? I couldn’t think of any reason they would be storing large volumes of hydrogen in a nuclear plant. Apparently the presence of excess hydrogen was a byproduct of the overheating fuel rod casings.

    So passing it off as a mere hydrogen explosion was kind of like saying “its not the fall that kills you, its the landing.”

  65. grim says:

    Ket,

    Interesting, the first reactor explosion didn’t appear to have any kind of flame out associated (seemed more like a pressure wave blast from the steam). Very different from the second, where you can clearly see a brief flash of flame.

  66. chicagofinance says:

    Shouldn’t the analyst use the word “withstand”?

    TOKYO (TheStreet) — Thinking of selling Toyota (TM_) shares due to earthquake fallout?

    Japan Rocked by Earthquake: In PicturesDespite Weaker Yen, Exporters PressuredToyota, Honda Shares Fall After Quake

    Think again, says Standard & Poor’s analyst Efraim Levy.

    In a report issued Monday morning, Levy rates Toyota a hold, noting “we think
    Toyota is well-positioned to weather the earthquake’s impact.”

  67. JJ says:

    toyotas suck. Other than a few old ladies driving white camrys I did not even know they still sold cars.

  68. Cesium. It’s what’s for dinner.

  69. Shore Guy says:

    Remember back to high-school chemistry, there are some reactions that only occur when one adds heat. In this case the Zirconium heats up, when water is reintroduced to the reactor vessel, the water comes in contact with the now very hot Zn, and produces Zirconium Oxide + hydrogen. Yippee!

  70. jj (57)-

    Cheating no big deal. Whole Amerikan society has been based on some form of it for about 40 years now.

  71. Shore Guy says:

    The thing that would scare the beejeepers out of me, were I an TEPCO or a governemtn official is a 7.0 or so aftershock in the area of one of these reactor complexes.

  72. vodka (58)-

    I will offer them my zircon-encrusted tweezers to help repair it.

    God, I miss Zappa at times like this.

    “I like the calm pleasant description of the oxidation of the zirconium cladding.”

  73. Shore Guy says:

    The Chinese are going to make out like bandets from this, as Japan gets to buying millions of acres of photovoltaic cells.

  74. Juice Box says:

    re # 66 – The crane operator as in the guy who moves the fuel rods around was
    killed in the first Hydrogen explosion as he was in his cab moving things around inside building #1.

    The reality is the storage/cooling ponds also need water to circulate continually. If anything the Hydrogen Explostion had to cause damage to the storage pools.

    The pool looks like this.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f3/Carso_Fuel_pool.jpg/800px-Carso_Fuel_pool.jpg

    Apparently 3450 fuel assemblies about 600 tons were stored in pools inside the reactor buildings . If the distribution of spent fuel is equal between the 6 reactors, that would lead us to believe that perhaps 200 tons of spent nuclear fuel is currently at risk of being exposed to the open air. A zirconium cladding fire in a spent fuel pool could be serious and, that once the fuel was uncovered, it might now take long for the most recently discharged spent fuel rods to ignite.

    They are apparently using fire fighting equipment, hose trucks and pumps to keep the reactor and what is left of the ponds filled with water as it boils off. This is going to be going on for a very long time, before they start to take things apart and remove all of the fuel from the damaged reactors and cooling ponds.

  75. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore,

    Dont forget that the zirconium oxidation reaction can be semi-self sustaining once it gets underway. The superheated oxidizing zirconium reaction can accelerate when water hits it, as the reaction temperatures are so hot that it dissociates the water into H2 and O2. The O2 feeds the oxidation reaction and the H2 can form a nice explosive blanket (as well as reacting). The heated H2 can also attack any exposed surrounding metal, fueling all sorts of undesirable side reactions.

    Shore,

    This situation is why i have always liked gas cooled reactors better. The coolant is already gas phase so you dont have phase change issues to worry about. With something like a gaseous N2 cooled reactor most of the unpleasant conditions being seen in japan are not possible. You could also go the next step to a liquid core ( like a liquid thorium system) with gas coolant. Your coolant cant phase change on you and the core cant melt, its already liquid.

  76. NJGator says:

    Gary 13 – The only reason Essex doesn’t win that contest is because we have places like Newark, Irvington, Orange, East Orange to bring our average numbers down. Remember, real men can pay Essex County taxes!

    The average residential property tax bill was $9,735 last year in Bergen County, an increase of 3.8 percent from the year before. That makes Bergen the most expensive county for property owners in the state, according to data released this week by the New Jersey Department of Community Affairs.

    Proximity to NYC, granite, stainless steel and all that stuff… you know… the price to pay since it’s different here and we’re all affluent.

  77. Shore Guy says:

    bandits, even

  78. Shore Guy says:

    And why I never understood the use of liquid sodium.

  79. Praobably covered in Chinese lead paint…

  80. Shore Guy says:

    could be boots of Chinese plastic

  81. Who cares? We’re all doomed.

  82. cobbler says:

    kettle [77]
    For the pool, the loss of water may or may not be an issue depending on how long the rods had been there (essentially, how long ago the reactors had been refueled). By the end of the hold time the water is more of a radiation trap than a heat trap (from the pool the rods are moved to the dry cask storage).

  83. chicagofinance says:

    Something tells me he will be skipping Chicago’s a Taste of Greektown on the near West side this summer…..
    http://www.businessweek.com/bschools/blogs/mba_admissions/archives/2011/03/german_central_bank_president_to_join_booth_faculty.html

  84. Kettle1^2 says:

    Bull market for Geiger counters!!!!! How long before the 3rd reactor explodes????

    Japanese officials say the nuclear fuel rods appear to be melting inside all three of the most troubled nuclear reactors.

    Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said Monday: “Although we cannot directly check it, it’s highly likely happening.”

    Some experts would consider that a partial meltdown of the reactor. Others, though, reserve that term for times when nuclear fuel melts through a reactor’s innermost chamber but not through the outer containment shell.

  85. Confused In NJ says:

    At least 18 Republican lawmakers have received death threats since voting for Gov. Scott Walker’s modified budget repair bill — and the number is climbing.

    Several suspects have been identified, while obscene phone calls, threatening e-mails and other “thug-like” intimidation tactics continue to be used by union supporters to incite violence and anger toward Republican senators.

    One particularly threatening e-mail warned Republican lawmakers to “put your things in order because you will be killed and your families will also be killed due to your actions in the last 8 weeks.”

    Interesting, the Unions are threatning to kill the parents & the children. Can’t be the Teachers Union unless that’s also for the Children?

  86. Anon E. Moose says:

    jj [67];

    toyotas suck. Other than a few old ladies driving white camrys I did not even know they still sold cars.

    Thank you for self-identifying as a yet another victim of Toyota’s badge-engineering campaign and its associated marketing. You don’t lease a Lexus by any chance, do you?

  87. Anon E. Moose says:

    Con’t [89]

    [67] -> [69] (appropriate for JJ, isn’t it?)

  88. Kettle1^2 says:

    -3rd reactor may be in danger of exploding

  89. Nicholas says:

    Poor kid, grabs carbon copy from trashcan jots down some answers on hand and both rich and poor kid score same result.

    Seriously, wtf, carbon copies? The 1980’s have called and they want thier carbon copies back.

    Your theory is blown JJ, apparently carbon copies went out of style 30 years ago. Unfortunately for the poor kids there is nothing in the trashcan.

  90. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore,

    Image of the second reactor immediately after the explosion.
    http://tinyurl.com/6gdbs2w

    it looks like panels of the containment building itself, and not just the blow away section where the overhead crane is located, was damaged.

  91. dan says:

    I actually looked at a place in Wayne that had a bomb shelter. He called me before I bought my current place to see if I was interested. I should call him back and tell him he should add the bomb shelter into the ad since I wasn’t expecting it.

  92. dan says:

    Sounds like a store opportunity in Montclair….. Instead of Build-A-Bear, how about Build-A-Bomb-Shelter.

  93. cobbler says:

    Radiation level at the plant gate was at a high of 3,200 mkSv/hr at 10 pm and dropped to about 300 mkSv/hr an hour later. Looks like emission are all aerosol and/or gas, no dust to talk about. At 3,200 one could work for a shift and then has to take 3 months off. 300 is sort of high but OK to work for a week or two if wearing a dust mask and take a shower afterwards (takes 160 hrs of exposure to get the max allowed 5 rem).

  94. Confused In NJ says:

    Earlier in the Wisconsin budget battle timeline, Massachusetts Rep. Michael Capauno told a group of Boston union members that collective bargaining battles were so important “every once and awhile you need to get out on the streets and get a little bloody.”

    Capauno got his wish, the Unions are threating to kill the children.

  95. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore, Grim

    Hi res image of the 2 exploded reactors.

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/digitalglobe-imagery/5526481182/sizes/o/in/photostream/

    the second one has way more damage and damage can be seen in the main containment building

  96. Juice Box says:

    re # 91 – Kettle1 – it is not going to explode, they are venting it continually, that is along as someone keeps the valve open. After the TMI reator core was finally opened up and inspected a “slag-like” material was found lying in the bottom of the reactor vessel. A hard and abrasive solidified slurry of grains of uranium dioxide ceramic embedded in an alloy of steel, zirconium, uranium, and miscellaneous other metals.

    Here are some of the more likely speculative failure modes, the heated slag if it melted through the bottom would drop into the corus. Nothing like Chernobyl should happen, even if there is a high pressure steam release containing radioactive particles.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_meltdown

  97. Painhrtz says:

    Ket other than mutagenic affects of high exposure radiation i really can’t comment on the technical as well as you guys but man that photo screams ruh-roh

  98. Confused In NJ says:

    FRANKLIN — A Sussex County woman pleaded guilty Monday to assault by auto for causing a head-on collision while trying to type in an address on her vehicle’s navigational system.

    Ana Philback, 30, of Hamburg admitted causing the crash on Route 23 in Franklin that seriously injured another woman driver.

    “Where was your focus of attention?” at the time of the accident, asked Superior Court Judge N. Peter Conforti, sitting in Newton.

    “On my GPS,” replied Philback, who added that she had drank a “glass of wine” before the accident.

    Philback pleaded guilty to fourth-degree assault by auto and reckless driving, a motor vehicle offense.

    Due to the severity of the injuries suffered by her victim, Philback had been denied entry into the state’s pre-trial invention program, said Assistant Prosecutor Seanna Pappas. The victim, 53-year-old Nancy Lagattuta of Sussex Borough, suffered a broken leg and ribs in the crash.

    Under a plea bargain agreement, the prosecution will ask that Philback be sentenced to a probationary term and a loss of her driver’s license for up to 90 days.

    The accident occurred at about 9:30 p.m. on Nov. 3, 2009, while Philback was driving her 2003 Ford Explorer south and crossed the double-lines on the state highway. There were no passengers in the two vehicles.

    Philback, who suffered minor injuries in the crash, is scheduled to be sentenced May 6. She also faces possible deportation because she was an illegal immigrant when the accident occurred, said Conforti.

    Interesting, an illegal immigrant loses her drivers license for 90 days? How does an illegal immigrant get a drivers license in the first place?

  99. relo says:

    Friendly IRS reminder, folks:

    Taxpayers who claim a tax refund on Form 1040 can use Form 8888 to split their refunds… Taxpayers can choose to use a portion of the refund to buy up to $5,000 in low-risk savings bonds, which earn interest and protect owners against inflation. The bonds must be purchased in $50 increments. Direct deposit of any remaining refund amounts is no longer required. Paper checks can be requested for the balance.

  100. Juice Box says:

    re: #101 – The janitor in my building says down south. NJ has no choice but
    to honor an out of state DL.

  101. Kettle1^2 says:

    Juice 99

    the tried venting the 1st 2 reactors as well….. The 3rd one may not explode, but the operators publicly warned that the risk is growing. The fire pumps they are using are having problems overcoming the backpressure cause by the steam generated in the core.

  102. jamil says:

    101 “Due to the severity of the injuries suffered by her victim, Philback had been denied entry into the state’s pre-trial invention program, said ”

    What exactly are they inventing in that program?

  103. dan (95)-

    How about Build a Bomb?

  104. Kettle1^2 says:

    Lets look at the bright side, This could be a heck of an opportunity to “manage” the japanese pension bomb that looms. An “unexpectedly” high casualty rate amongst pensioners is bullish right?

  105. AG says:

    Anyone have a geiger counter for sale? I also need 3 haz mat suits and a gas mask.

  106. vodka (107)-

    It’s got to be managed so lots of only the selected age demographic get their innards roasted.

    Although I guess creating lots more young girly men through the gift of radiated nads could be a side benefit…

  107. Does Owens-Corning make basement finishing systems with lead walls?

  108. Juice Box says:

    re # 104- Even Chernobyl after it exploded then caught one fire and melted cooled eventually and the slag melted/drained into the basement where it hardened. The danger of a full explosion that would rip off the top of the reactor chamber has passed as long as they leave the valves open. Hopefully this won’t take months since the radiation in the steam must be considerable.

    I would not want to be on one of those fire crews manning the pumps and refueling the fire trucks with diesel. There has to be quite a bit of nasty fallout in the immediate vicinity of the plant, new aftershocks every few hours and a new tsunami every day or so. Hellish for the fire men and plant workers and their families.

    Here is an even closer look. You can see some of the rescue vehicles covered with debris and dust and what looks like brown silt or sand from the tsunami on the surrounding roads.

    https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-rrB-tNbUgIk/TX5ELCR_aSI/AAAAAAAAFQI/CJdTpLObyVs/s1600/fukushima_after_explosions.jpg

  109. chicagofinance says:

    108.AG says:
    March 14, 2011 at 1:57 pm
    Anyone have a geiger counter for sale? I also need 3 haz mat suits and a gas mask.
    http://cgi.ebay.com/Radiac-AN-UDR-13-Radiation-Detector-Geiger-Counter-/300535875522?pt=BI_Security_Fire_Protection&hash=item45f95587c2

  110. chicagofinance says:

    The end is nigh (JJ Edition):

    A snake died of silicone poisoning after biting the breast of a model.

    Israeli model Orit Fox was on Spanish TV’s Telecino handling the snake when it latched onto her left breast.

    The snake died.

    Fox was taken to the hospital and given a tetanus shot but was OK, the London Sun reported.

  111. relo says:

    24: Ket,

    Silly monkeys.

  112. Kettle1^2 says:

    113

    AHH MY EYES!!!! That was hideous!!!!

    Orit Fox- DO NOT GOOGLE if you cherish your eye sight.

    Juice,

    I never said the containment vessel was going to explode, but there is a danger of an explosion in general due to hydrogen buildup per the recent statements by various officials. The real fireworks would be a full meltdown that breached the containment building and contacted ground water. Although such an event is still unlikely given the available info at this point.

  113. Juice Box says:

    re #116 – How much “ground water” can there be on a beach? That plant does not have a fresh water stream running under it, it’s practically in the Pacific Ocean. A little radioactive steam shower every few hours for the next few days, be sure to soap up regularly and wear booties not to track anything in the house.

  114. Kettle1^2 says:

    Grim

    Your server’s clock appears to have forgotten about daylight savings.

  115. Fabius Maximus says:

    #16 Clot

    The technical term for that brilliance of starting 7 defenders, is “park the bus”

  116. DL says:

    Clot: Doom is nigh. Truer words never spoken. We are just getting started. Silly humans. What makes you think once something has happened, it is over. Only one earthquake? Only three nuke blocks in total meltdown? Only one direction the wind blows? Lets get serious about worst case scenarios. How about half of Japan collapses into the sea? I once spent a day at the 4th Division HQ of the Russian Ground Forces outside of Moscow. This is the elite division charged with the defense of Moscow in the event the unwashed masses become rowdy. It was also comprised the first responders when Chernobyl caught fire. I suspect the Japanese Defense Force is already putting together a similar team. Of course this will never happen because we need spare parts for all those Hondas and Toyotas.

  117. Juice Box says:

    Kettle 1 – Hope this is not true, somebody is going to have to do a Spock and go in and jam the valves open manually.

    “Workers were having difficulty injecting seawater into the reactor because its vents — necessary to release pressure in the containment vessel by allowing radioactive steam to escape — had stopped working properly, they said.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/world/asia/15nuclear.html?hp

  118. DL says:

    Does anyone think California is paying attention?

  119. DL says:

    Germans reporting they got the valves open.

  120. Shore Guy says:

    Also, as the fuel rods melt, they will block the passages through which the water usually flows.

  121. Kettle1^2 says:

    I didnt know they were filming Escape Form Tokyo?!

    1839: UK nuclear expert John Large tells the BBC that the wind direction off the east coast of Japan is moving round to the south, which could take any radioactive plume from the Fukushima plant over the Tokyo region.

  122. Kettle1^2 says:

    DL

    magnitude 7 & 8 aftershocks are expected in the area!

  123. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore,

    Another interesting question is, how much material has to melt and pool for a criticality event to occur and the fission reaction to restart due to the density of fissle material??? Is that a possibility here, or is there something in place to prevent that such as containment geometry?

  124. gluteus (119)-

    I don’t know what game you were watching, but two (Fabio & Rafael) of those 7 “defenders” played as wingers, Rooney dropped into a 3/4 role, and the Red Devils blitzed your hapless 11.

  125. DL (123)-

    Clotpoll reporting that the Germans still feel they owe the Japs one for WWII.

    “Germans reporting they got the valves open.”

  126. German media now encouraging Japanese to swim in the ocean next to reactor.

  127. Shore Guy says:

    A post seems to be in mod

  128. grim says:

    Got tagged as spam

  129. gary says:

    Drove by the Paterson Falls today – very impressive!

  130. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [97]

    Capuano is from Somerville (a.k.a. Slummerville, Scummerville, etc.). Used to be solidly blue collar poor, now a mix of blue collar, illegals, students, and hippies that can’t afford Cambridge. Capuano will play well in Somerville, and maybe in Medford, but the folks in other parts of his district can’t be too amused at the prospect of inviting thug violence into their tony suburbs.

  131. safe as houses says:

    How come none of you doom and gloomers posted this?

    Earthquake Risk in New Jersey

    http://www.state.nj.us/dep/njgs/enviroed/eqrisk.htm

    The article claims we are overdue for a “moderate” earthquake. (5.0-5.9 richter scale).

  132. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [136] redux

    Ooops, forgot. The 8th was reconfigured and is now solidly blue collar, white trash, and illegal immigrants. Capuano’s comments will play well there. But from my experience, they will just bloody each other. No GOP or corporate types live in those ‘hoods.

  133. Kettle1^2 says:

    In case there wasn’t enough doom…..

    And so the US Treasury has hit the proverbial paycheck to paycheck sustenance level. After burning $12.8 billion (without a change in gross debt) in cash today alone, and $75 billion in the month of March so far, primarily driven by a back end-loaded tax refund calendar, according to the Daily Treasury Statement, today’s cash balance dropped to the scary level of just $14.2 billion. Without the benefit of incremental funding, this is the same amount that the Treasury burns on a good day! In other words, we take back what we said about the US Treasury existing paycheck to paycheck – Geithner now has to scramble to find funding on a day to day basis. If tomorrow operating outflows surpass $14.2 billion (and, again, the amount was $12.8 billion today) the world’s “greatest” country (i.e. banana republic) runs out of cash, period

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/treasury-cash-drops-just-142-billion-and-no-bond-auctions-until-next-week-america-about-run-

    Oh, and radiation levels have jumped from standard background levels of about 80 nGry/hr to 1000’s per hour in cities immediatly south of the troubled reactors

  134. Kettle1^2 says:

    The level of doom is be oming down right comical. It’s almost starting to sound like a hack scifi/ thriller script.

    I guess our species must have really pissed of Insert Diety of Choice Here!

  135. Kettle1^2 says:

    Safe

    Better yet, read up on the New Madrid fault.

  136. Shore Guy says:

    Hoping to avoid the spam filter.

    Ket,

    As the fuel rods melt, I would expect a mass of MOX and zirconium and assorted other stuff to collect in the bottom of the reactor chamber. I doubt it will be a homogeneous mix (an I don’t recall what was found in the postmortem of TMI or even Chernobyl).

    I would say that It won’t be good but whether one would seea critical mass, I don’t know. T has been awhile since I have lived and breathed NE and reactors.

  137. Shore Guy says:

    When federal employees have to bring their own toilet paper, paper clips, etc. we will know the USG is broke.

  138. Fabius Maximus says:

    #129 Clot

    Sums up the 4-5-1 and hit on the break I was watching

    “sit relatively deep, and use the pace of Hernandez and the da Silva twins on the break”

    Not exactly rocket science. You could even say that Rooney was sitting far enough back to qualify for Route One, Hoof and Chase.

  139. Shore Guy says:

    If we start to hear oficials speaking of covering the measure with concrete, then it is time to worry. I also wonder if there comes a point where Japan would be better off allowingthe site to be nuked.

    Think of it as an Atomics amputation.

  140. Shore Guy says:

    Damned Android: Atomic

  141. safe as houses says:

    Kettle,

    I took a tour of a cavern in Virg!nia that had a fault line running through a ceiling of one of the caves. The tour guide said it was part of a fault line that ran all the way up to Maine, and that it was past due for a quake.

  142. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore

    nuking a reactor? I will assume u are joking. Turning several hundred tins of nuclear fuel into particulate fallout isn’t the best idea

  143. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore 142

    if I remeber correctly, Chernobyl had a mass very vloce to being critical

  144. grim says:

    Reactor 2 just went

  145. Juice Box says:

    The sound of a blast was heard Tuesday morning at the troubled No. 2 reactor of the quake-hit Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant, the government said.

    The incident occurred at 6:10 a.m. and is feared to have damaged the reactor’s pressure-suppression system, the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency said, citing a report from the plant’s operator Tokyo Electric Power Co.

    ==Kyodo

  146. grim says:

    Hats off to the engineers and workers remaining on-site at Fukushima.

  147. Outofstater says:

    Amen.

  148. Neanderthal Economist says:

    153 – glad to hear you mention that grim. Big time hats off to anyone near that facility.

  149. Fabius Maximus says:

    To try and lighten the mood can I interject the best comment I have come across in a while. The context is a staffer for Jamils great pick Carl Palidino, not getting paid.

    “So, we’re supposed to feel sorry for people who earned their living attempting to put this scumsuking pig in office? Cry me a fcuking river, Mr. Suereth. This is like asking us to feel sorry for Admiral Ozzel because Darth Vader turned on him – he was still working for the Empire, folks. (Edit comment) ”

    http://gawker.com/#!5781480/deadbeat-carl-paladino-wont-pay-his-debts

  150. Kettle1^2 says:

    The following is before the 3rd reactor went up:

    Gamma Radiation In Fukushima-Downwind Ibaraki Disclosed, 30 Times Above Normal
    http://www.bousai.ne.jp/eng/

  151. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Ket, shore,
    Can one you guys offer a comprehendable three sentance summary on this situation? All this talk about hydrgen and rods. Am I supposed to know how a newklear reactor works in order to read the news?

  152. Kettle1^2 says:

    reactor 2 breached by the explosion?

    Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano told reporters that “damage appears on the suppression pool” — the bottom part of the container, which contains water used to cool down the reactor and control air pressure inside.

    “But we have not recorded any sudden jump in radiation indicators,” Edano said without elaborating.

    If confirmed, it will be the first direct damage to the reactor since a massive earthquake and tsunami battered Japan’s northeast coast on Friday, knocking out nuclear plants in Fukushima, north of Tokyo.

    See Juice’s link at 53 for a diagram of the reactor

  153. Neanderthal Economist says:

    This is just one of those subjects where even nypost is over my head…

  154. Confused In NJ says:

    Hats off to Ben Bernanke for printing Fake Money faster then Real News can drop the Stock Market.

  155. gluteus (144)-

    No route 1 crap from Rooney. The service he pumped forward was as good as anything you’d see from Xavi.

    I think of park the bus as being more sit back, allow the other team the ball 65-70% of the time, let them rope-a-dope themselves until they’re frustrated, and don’t even try to counter every time you win the ball back.

  156. Like Mourinho said last year after Inter beat Barca: “we didn’t want the ball”.

  157. What’s the best temperature for barbecuing over MOX?

    Best laugh I had today was turning on CNN and listening to Elliott Spitzer say “exposed rods” seven times in twenty seconds.

  158. Kettle1^2 says:

    Veto

    There are currently 5 reactors experiencing cooling problems. 3 of those are at Fukushima-1. The second 2 are at Fukushima -2. The 2 reactors at Fukushima 2 are not fully out of control yet.

    Fukushima-1 is the sight where the 3 reactors have now exploded. They all have the following design (hat tip juice):
    http://images.smh.com.au/2011/03/14/2231357/japan-reactor2.jpg

    Reactor 1
    The first explosion occurred at reactor 1. It appears to have been a hydrogen explosion due to hydrogen building up in the space above the reactor. The explosion blew out the upper building panels ( as they were designed to do for safety reasons) there appears to have been little visible structural damage to the actual reactor structures. The video of the first explosion shows a fairly clean explosion.

    Reactor 3
    The second explosion occurred in reactor #3. This reactor uses MOX fuel where as reactor 1 uses uranium fuel. In brief, MOX fuel is a mixture of isotopes including plutonium and uranium. it is potentially more toxic/troublesome, in terms of cleanup and exposure assuming the actual fuel is released. The video of this reactors explosion shows large amounts of debris being thrown including 1 or 2 very large pieces. The concern is that one of those large pieces could have been the cap of the reactor. There is no info currently available whether or not that was/is the case. The high res photo of reactor 3 after the explosion shows what appears to extensive damage to the reactor structure itself.

    Reactor 2
    Reactor 2 was just reported to have exploded. Officials are also reporting that damage to the lower reactor structure has occurred. There are reports that this reactor lost ALL cooling and the sudden buildup of heat generated too much backpressure for the available pumps to overcome.

    There are 2 major concerns here. 1) the reactors 2) the spent fuel pools

    The spent fuel pools sit at the top of the reactor structure and keep spent fuel cool. if cooling is lost the fuel could boil off the water and ignite send a plume of radioactive combustion products into the air. There is also concern that in an explosion such as the one seen at reactor 3, that the spent fuel pool could have been damaged and/or some of the spent fuel could have been lost in the explosion. between the 3 reactors there are several hundred tons of spent fuel. The risk also depends on how hot the spent fuel is, which is not public knowledge at this time although officials do seem concerned about it.

    All 3 reactors are now reported to have experienced partial melt down of the cores. There are multiple layers of containment so a partial meltdown can still be contained. the key at this point is the integrity of the primary containment vessel and the containment structure itself.

    (the following is my personal non-expert/lay opinion)
    Reactor 1 seems to have maintained integrity so far and is off gassing radioactive steam as they cool it with sea water. Reactor 3 appears to have suffered structural damage all the way to ground level, containment is in question. The extensive damage along with the isotopes being reported detected down wind suggest that containment MAY have been breached on this reactor. The most recent reports on the explosion of reactor 2 suggest that this reactor may have also suffered a containment breach.

    (end opinion)

    The concern now is still cooling the reactors. if they cannot get them cooled they could continue to melt down. a further meltdown could produce additional explosions. They must also keep the spent fuel pools cooled, assuming that the spent fuel is till intact in reactors 2 & 3. if the dont they could have a situation where the spent fuel burns in the open air. A worst case scenario (hopefully unlikely) is that there is a full meltdown and the pooled liquid fuel could initiate fission reaction and/or the spent fuel that is still intact boils off its cooling water and ignites. if the spent fuel ignites a noticeable plume should be visible coming from the reactor.

    Most recent reports are of a sudden spike in radiation measurements south of the reactors in Ibaraki. This MAY be indicative of a breach in reactor 2 and/or 3.

    One possible outcome is that the fuels melts into the bottom of the containment structure and then solidifies there without further complication. This is similar to what happened at TMI.

  159. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Nobody does the crowd-defensive-third bee hive better than any team in serie a… learned that strategy in fourth grade.

  160. Kettle1^2 says:

    Debt 164

    when you first lose all coolant about 1,200 Deg C (2200 deg F). At peak temp about 2200 deg C (4500 Deg F)

    Veto

    Go read the following for a better summary then mine

    http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2011/03/march-13-2011-how-black-is-japanese.html

  161. Al Mossberg says:

    Reactor 4 is on fire. The fuel rods are on fire. Confirmed via Reuters. Check your pants for stool.

  162. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Nice summary cat…

  163. Kettle1^2 says:

    Veto,

    The fear over MOX is that inhaled particulate plutonium can be considered lethal (there is debate on this). A worst case scenario at Fukushima could theoretically produce such a plume.

  164. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Correct me if im wrong but glazers = yankees in red shirt. Pockets so deep even coaches can’t screw the team up.

  165. Juice Box says:

    Re: 167 – How long for 6 inches of stainess steel to melt at 2600 FH?

  166. Kettle1^2 says:

    Juice,

    I believe the sarcophagus ( primary containment vessel) is made of inconel ( a special steel alloy). Its melting point is about 1300 deg C (2500F) but it loses structural integrity at about 1000C (2000F). There may also be additional integrity effects from the liquid fuel. I do not know what the solubility of inconel is in regards to liquid MOX. ( think of water dissolving salt even though salts melting point is actually 800 deg C)

  167. Neanderthal Economist says:

    172 – “How long for 6 inches of stainess steel to melt at 2600 FH?”
    Queue jj for inappropriate response.

  168. Kettle1^2 says:

    Jucie

    As a WAG, assuming ZERO coolant, i would guess a few hours. if some coolant is available the inconel vessel may be able to survive for a long period of time due to its large heat capacity and high thermal conductivity.

    The real wild card here is whether or not the seismic activity compromised any of the containment structures. They were only designed for a maximum of an 8.5

  169. Kettle1^2 says:

    AL 168

    Link? Reactor 4 at fukushima was shutdown before the quake for general maintenance. or are you referring to Fukishima 2?

  170. Al Mossberg says:

    Ket 176.

    http://live.reuters.com/Event/Japan_earthquake2

    Scroll down. Its confirmed reactor 4 has a fire in it or near it. Conflicting reports about how much radiation is being released and whether the fuel rods are involved. Apparently #4 is not active but is used to store spent fuel.

  171. Kettle1^2 says:

    Note:

    I AM NOT A NUCLEAR EXPERT AND DO NOT CLAIM TO BE ONE

  172. Juice Box says:

    Re:175 -was a trick question. Google TMI meltdown, few hours makes sense, let hope the World understands….

  173. Libtard says:

    I suppose we’re all fuk’ed.

  174. Al Mossberg says:

    The winds are out of the north in Tokyo right now.

  175. Kettle1^2 says:

    Al 176

    Damn!!!! if i lived in japan i would be taken a foreign vacation RIGHT NOW.

    Who wants to lay odds on a mass exodus from Tokyo! This fallout is on course to be worse then if we had dropped another nuke on them.

  176. Confused In NJ says:

    Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said Tuesday that a fourth reactor at the Fukushima Dai-ichi complex was on fire and that more radiation was released

  177. Kettle1^2 says:

    Libtard

    Great! My daughters are going to be born right in the middle of this mess!

  178. Al Mossberg says:

    Ket,

    They expanded the evacuation area to 30km around the reactor. At this rate it will 100km by tomorrow. Japan is going down hard.

  179. Kettle1^2 says:

    COnfused 183

    It sounds like the spent fuel at reactor 4 may have just become a serious issue. Burning plutonium is not so very good for you.

  180. Al Mossberg says:

    The smoke from the fire at Reactor 4 contains particulate radiation from the spent fuel rods.

    The winds is carrying away the smoke. Spreading radiation.

    REUTEURS FLASH – French embassy in Tokyo says weak radioactive contamination could reach Tokyo in 10 hrs from stricken nuclear plant.

  181. Confused In NJ says:

    186.Kettle1^2 says:
    March 14, 2011 at 9:39 pm
    COnfused 183

    It sounds like the spent fuel at reactor 4 may have just become a serious issue. Burning plutonium is not so very good for you.

    Looks that way and is a very serious and sad situation. I never understood why there were no backup mobile generators, readily available, to power the primary cooling systems. Given that Japan is a technically advanced country.

  182. Kettle1^2 says:

    Confused

    There were multiple backup generators on site. The tsunami damaged them. The site was not properly designed to defend the backup generators from tsunami. By the time they got backup power on site the coolant loops were apparently not functional. They have been using fire pumps to feed water into the reactors and that has been part of the problem as you would normally want special high pressure pumps.

    AL

    I think the navy suspected all of this given how far back they pulled the fleet.

  183. Kettle1^2 says:

    AL, Confused

    If the spent fuel at reactor 4 is indeed burning then its time for cement!!! I’m not sure how you get anywhere near this without receiving a dangerous/lethal exposure. Whoever volunteers to work near this monster is an unfortunate brave soul.

  184. Al Mossberg says:

    Ket.

    Geiger counter reading in Tokyo is “22.07 CPM” and rising. This is still within normal but its trending higher. Not sure how exactly radiation is measured but serves as a baseline.

    Link to live geiger counter.

    http://www.ustream.tv/channel/%E3%82%AC%E3%82%A4%E3%82%AC%E3%83%BC%E3%82%AB%E3%82%A6%E3%83%B3%E3%82%BF

  185. Confused In NJ says:

    190.Kettle1^2 says:
    March 14, 2011 at 9:57 pm
    AL, Confused

    If the spent fuel at reactor 4 is indeed burning then its time for cement!!! I’m not sure how you get anywhere near this without receiving a dangerous/lethal exposure. Whoever volunteers to work near this monster is an unfortunate brave soul

    That’s what they did in Russia. Some brave souls sacrificed themselves to do the concrete job.

  186. Confused In NJ says:

    189.Kettle1^2 says:
    March 14, 2011 at 9:53 pm
    Confused

    There were multiple backup generators on site. The tsunami damaged them. The site was not properly designed to defend the backup generators from tsunami. By the time they got backup power on site the coolant loops were apparently not functional

    When I worked for Ma Bell, if our central offices lost both power & backup generators, they brought in a mobile jet unit to power the building PDQ.

  187. Kettle1^2 says:

    Confused

    They are reporting that the reactor 4 fire is not the spent fuel, but are saying that the spent fuel is “hot”. time will tell

  188. Al Mossberg says:

    194.

    Ket,

    Reactor #4 just had a hydrogen explosion. Confirmed. F_cked Up!

    http://english.kyodonews.jp/

  189. Kettle1^2 says:

    Confused

    They are reporting reactor 4 fire as a “hydrogen explosion”. There are now conflicting storied that dont really make sense. If reactor 4 was really shut down as claimed, the the most likely scenario is that they have lost control of the spent fuel.

    AL

    CPM = Counts per minute

    You need baseline info on the detector being used in order to convert CPM to a general unit of radiation dosage such as a REM or a GRAY.
    CPM can be used as a relative measure without the baseline. You could assume 20 CPM is background and then measure any increase from there.

  190. Kettle1^2 says:

    AL,

    if your really curious about CPM take a look:

    http://www.vaughns-1-pagers.com/science/radiation-detection.htm

  191. Al Mossberg says:

    By the way I bought mine for 9.99 for a pack of 14.

  192. Al Mossberg says:

    The Nikkei is getting destroyed.

    8,667.15 -953.34 ( – 9.91%)

  193. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Ok kettle my head just exploded, that being said got a better understanding of what is happening , possible scenarios and explanation of such than any so called expert I’ve seen on the tube.

  194. Barbara says:

    wonder what the nuclear lobbyists are doing right now…..?

  195. Shore Guy says:

    158. Neander,

    I just got in and I am heading to bed. Ask again tomorrow if one of us doesn’t summarize it for you before then.

    In a nutshell, a reactor has long rods that contain fuel, and regulating rods. The fuel rods are made of pellets of nuclear material that releases neutrons and which are held together with other material, such as zirconium.

    The regulating rods absorb neutrons and, whilst they are lowered into a reactor it is essentially “off.” When the operator removes the rods neutrons flying off onr decaying atom smash into another atom, causing it to release more neutrons. This happens again and again in a chainlike way, hence the term chain reaction.

    As this happens, heat builds up. Some form of coolant is needed to cool thereactor, often water. Very pore water loops between the reactor and a heat exchanger. Another loop of water gets heated by the heat exch@ger and drives turbines, not unlike at acoal-fired plant.

    If the fuel rods lose coolant water, a LOCA, the fuel rods get very hot. When water is reintroduced two things happen, steam is produced and the zirconium and water react to form zirconium oxide and hydrogen. The hydrogen raises pressure in the reactor and mustbe vented to prevent a reactor vessel from rupturing.

  196. Shore Guy says:

    Kettle,

    The burning rods in the spent fuel storage seemsto echo something we discussed earlierb today.

  197. Shore Guy says:

    Damned Android: very pure water not pore

  198. cobbler says:

    As the fire in the reactor #4 is reportedly extinguished, probably they’ve been able to re-flood the containment pool.
    If any silver lining in this mess can be found, I guess with the #2 ruptured they could inject water into the break (or even make a hole in the enclosure with the shaped charge from the top, and essentially shower the seawater in). In Chernobyl people worked 5 minute shifts doing this sort of jobs (getting 50 rem or so), and then were sent away from the site. Most are still alive…

  199. Shore Guy says:

    Also, the vented hydrogen can cause significant problems, as we have seen three times already.

  200. Barbara says:

    also wondering of those remaining plant workers were working at gun point or threat of arrest….

  201. Barbara says:

    How many days until we start to see “boat people”? Maybe not, most of the boats are destroyed.

  202. Shore Guy says:

    Back in the day, I knew someone whose spouse was killed by Chernobyl.

  203. Shore Guy says:

    Barbara,

    I would suspect that they are working out of a deep sense of duty. They know that not just anyone can Do what they do.

  204. cobbler says:

    barbara [208]
    While the days of samurai are gone, the sense of duty and honor is much stronger in the Japanese than in most other developed countries’ residents. I am sure they’ve found enough volunteers.

  205. Barbara says:

    Maybe.

  206. Kettle1^2 says:

    Barb

    they have evacuate most personal away from the reactors due to a sudden radiation spike

  207. Barbara says:

    Kettle,
    I know, 50 left there now? That’s what the NYT is reporting.

  208. Shore Guy says:

    It is time for bed. I hope things get better overnight but, I suspect Tuesday will be a very dark day for Japan.

  209. Shore Guy says:

    Can we flood the reactors with newly-printed dollars to douse the flames?

  210. Marylin says:

    Superb insights! I have been looking for something such as this for a little bit now. With thanks!

Comments are closed.