Realtors: “One cannot say that we are in a recovery right now”

From Bloomberg:

Sales of U.S. Existing Houses Fall, Prices Reach Nine-Year Low

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes dropped more than forecast in February, sending prices to the lowest level since 2002 and indicating the market is struggling to recover.

Purchases decreased 9.6 percent to a 4.88 million annual rate, less than the 5.13 million median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. The median price fell 5.2 percent from a year earlier.

Foreclosures are adding to a glut of distressed properties on the market and pressuring values, leaving some Americans with bigger mortgages than their homes are worth as joblessness hovers near 9 percent. The figures underscore the Federal Reserve’s view that the housing market “continues to be depressed” even as the rest of the economy improves.

“The demand for housing just isn’t there,” said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “We have to clear this inventory of foreclosures. We think that happens in the second half of the year.”

Estimates of the 76 economists surveyed by Bloomberg ranged from 4.8 million to 5.39 million.

“One cannot say that we are in a recovery right now,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the Realtors’ association, said at a press conference. “If the price decline persists, even with job recovery, it could hamper some buying enthusiasm.”

From the Huffington Post:

February Home Sales Plummet As Housing Market May Have Further To Fall

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell sharply in February, after several months of increases, according to a report released Monday, in an another blow to a sagging housing market that may have further to fall.

Existing home sales dropped 9.6 percent from January to February to an annual rate of 4.88 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors, an industry group. Compared with the same period last year, sales fell 2.8 percent. Home prices fell to their lowest in nearly nine years.

Although economists expected a decline from January’s annual rate of 5.36 million units sold — economists polled by Reuters expected February sales to fall 4.0 percent — the steepness of the drop came as a surprise. The last several months of housing market data from NAR showed glimmers of recovery, but many analysts now feel that the downward trend is clearly reasserting itself.

“Expectations had looked for a decline, but a much more modest decline than what we saw,” said Miller Tabak economist Dan Greenhaus. “I think what we’re seeing is a complete and total reversal of any strength we saw as a result of the first time homebuyers credit.”

Home prices have fallen 31 percent since peaking in 2006, according to the Case-Shiller 20-city index released in February. (For the past several months, Case-Shiller has indicated that home values are dwindling in nearly every American market.) Last year, nearly 2.9 million homes received foreclosure notices — a 2 percent increase from 2009 — according to data collected by RealtyTrac, an online foreclosure market. More than a quarter of all U.S. home sales last year were of foreclosed properties.

“This decline basically wiped out about half of the gains in home sales that were made in the previous 3 months,” said Celia Chen, an economist at Moody’s Analytics.

From CNN/Money:

Existing home sales tumble 9.6%

Sales of existing homes fell in February after three straight monthly increases, an industry group said Monday.

According to the National Association of Realtors, homes sold at an annual rate of 4.88 million in February, down 9.6% from January and 2.8% lower than February 2010 sales.

The report was worse than economists had expected. A consensus of experts surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast an annualized sales rate of 5.05 million.

At the same time, the median home price declined 5.2% compared to the previous year, to $156,100.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

169 Responses to Realtors: “One cannot say that we are in a recovery right now”

  1. grim says:

    From the WSJ Developments Blog:

    Will Spring Lead to Sunnier Housing Data?

    Here’s more depressing data for the housing market: Sales of previously occupied homes in the U.S. sank by 9.6% in February and prices fell to the lowest level in nearly nine years, the National Association of Realtors reports.

    The results came in below expectations, ending hopes that the four-year residential downturn — the worst since the Depression — is over. Still, as sister blog MarketBeat points out, this winter was brutal, which might have weighed on the data. That must have some investors optimistic: Shares of home builders are in positive territory, with Meritage and Hovnanian leading the pack.

    If all this has you scratching your head in confusion, don’t worry. Industry watchers have mixed feelings about the spring selling season now officially under way.

    Dan Oppenheim, Credit Suisse analyst: “We continue to expect further declines in the coming months, and think the lower existing home prices will pressure homebuilders to cut prices in order to compete, unless they are content with low volumes through the spring.”

    Paul Ashworth, Capital Economics economist: “Even if we allow for the possible impact of unseasonably severe weather last month, the housing market is still clearly years away from staging any meaningful recovery.”

    Theresa Chen, Barclays Capital economist: “Despite an improving economic backdrop and increased affordability in terms of home prices, demand from many households may be suppressed in the face of still tight credit conditions. We continue to judge that the underlying trend for existing home sales is improving, but only at a gradual pace.”

  2. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    Market Scoffs at Pitiful Home Sales

    Call me crazy, but I thought a near 10 percent monthly drop in existing home sales might affect the markets today. If not the sales, then maybe the 5.2 percent annual price drop, or the rise in inventories to an 8.6 month supply. Nope. Apparently that’s not bad news to financials today.

    Even the Realtors couldn’t sugar-coat this one, with chief economist Lawrence Yun calling it a “setback” in the monthly press conference and later telling me, “The traditional buyers who are looking for a new home, whether because of changes in family circumstances, job relocation, they are not making that move. And the tightness of the credit can still be attributed to that.”

    Credit is tight, but no tighter than it has been for a few years now. Yes, FHA loans (loans geared to lower income borrowers and insured by the Federal Housing Administration which requires a small down payment) are more expensive, but the low end of the market, where we might find more FHA borrowers, is actually improving, while the middle of the market is stuck. In addition, the percentage of all-cash buyers rose to an all-time high of 33 percent.

    “The bottom line is extremely simple to interpret. The housing market is still very depressed and a major drag on the economy, especially household net worth. The recovery has been extremely fragile since it has not been assisted by a housing volume component,” writes Patrick Newport at IHS Global Insight.

  3. cobbler says:

    shore [3]
    If people had been exposed to 100-250 mSv as the article states in the bottom, there is no way 5 of them had died a week after the incident (as it states on the top). For that, they needed to get upward of 5-10 Sv which is at least 20x bigger number. Sorry to be cynical, the guys working there are heroes – but Daily Mail is hardly a source of truth.

  4. Confused In NJ says:

    2.grim says:
    March 21, 2011 at 6:30 pm
    From CNBC:

    Market Scoffs at Pitiful Home Sales

    Call me crazy, but I thought a near 10 percent monthly drop in existing home sales might affect the markets today. If not the sales, then maybe the 5.2 percent annual price drop, or the rise in inventories to an 8.6 month supply. Nope. Apparently that’s not bad news to financials today

    The Market is controlled in Ponzi fashion by Helicopter Ben and real news of any type is irrelevant.

  5. Kettle1^2 says:

    SAS3

    now fallout here!!!

    Radiation 1,600 times higher than normal levels has been detected in an area about 20 kilometers from the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, International Atomic Energy Agency officials said Monday.

    Data collected by an IAEA team show that radiation levels of 161 microsievert per hour have been detected in the town of Namie, Fukushima Prefecture, the officials said.

    The government has set an exclusion zone covering areas within a 20-km radius of the plant and has urged people within 20 to 30 km to stay indoors.

  6. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore

    video of them spraying reactor 3 with fire trucks

    http://video.asahi.com/viewvideo.jspx?Movie=48464141/48464141peevee378318.flv

  7. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore,

    See my last post in the previous thread.

    Cobbler.

    Are you suggesting the radiation levels are locally higher then what is being publicly stated? That is really the only logical conclusion given how far behind the curve the response has been and how they have blatantly tried to distort/misrepresent the available data.

  8. Fabius Maximus says:

    Nom (previous thread)

    There is another option that goes beyond protectionism. What we are seeing today is a reversal of cash flow. Companies are now looking to book income in the US and book expense abroad. With a week dollar and the rest of the world jacking tax rates, the US is starting to look attractive again for the multi nationals.. That raises the question of what to do with all that cash parked overseas. That can be solved., without much cost. Repatriate the cash within two years at today’s rates or it will be very expensive to hold it overseas and repatriate later.

    Now the country still needs stimulus spending to kick start the economy and bring down unemployment. But it needs stimulus spending in the right areas. While it is true the countries infrastructure is crumbling, stimulus spending on transport at this point is a waste. Back when the interstates were built, you would have tens of thousands employed from hauling dirt, upwards. Now if you build a 100mil bridge in NJ, you hire one of the six or seven companies qualified to do the work, who will use a workforce of a hundred, with the white collar work subcontracted out.

    The stimulus needs to be focused on bringing mid to low income jobs back. Two good examples would be call centers and localization. Get the companies to bring the call centers back. If they have expense involved, give a tax credit. If the job is left overseas, give no tax relief for the expense. Why do the likes of Msft, GOOG, OCLE ship localization abroad, it can easily be done here

    The US is the biggest market in the world and the gvmt the biggest consumer.
    Go through the industries, If you are selling to the gvmt and it is not made locally, but could be, you can’t claim tax relief on the expense. That would satisfy any WTO issues.

  9. nj escapee says:

    Fabius, I nominate you for secretary of labor

  10. Fabius Maximus says:

    Now here is an interesting unintended consequence for CC. A lot of my GOP friends (yes, I do have some), rely on a Brownstone Beefsteak for most of their fundraising.

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/03/fired_by_christie_2_north_jers.html

  11. Fabius Maximus says:

    #11 NJ Escapee

    Thank You, but at that point I would get into my social reforms and you would really hate me .. :*)

  12. cobbler says:

    kettle [9]
    I trust the IAEA numbers but not the ones from the utility. I didn’t see any IAEA data from inside the plant – only from the towns some distance away. While these numbers are a couple of orders of magnitude lower than the ones from the similar Chernobyl vicinity in 1986, it doesn’t necessarily mean the contamination in the plant is proportionately less, as well. E.g., radioiodine will be almost non-existent in the releases from the cooling pools as the rods had been pulled out of the reactors a while ago – but longer-living radionuclides could be present in abundance. By the way, the corollary of relatively low iodine levels will be the very spotty contamination on site – could be areas 20 ft from each other with 100x difference in radiation levels. With good mapping the workers can stay in cleaner spots – say, operate fire pumps, etc. – for quite a while before having to be pulled out due to reaching the “halt” dose.

  13. cobbler says:

    Fabius [10]
    There is a very simple way of getting the call centers back: put a $0.10 per minute fee on all foreign-terminated voice calls whether standard or VOIP. It is not a big deal for someone calling his mom overseas, but a killer for the call centers. Extra $6 per hour combined with general cluelessness of the overseas personnel thus longer calls will get these guys out of business in no time.

  14. Diane says:

    http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/18/real_estate/florida_vacant_homes/index.htm

    Nearly 20% of Florida Homes are Vacant

    Celia Chen, a housing market analyst for Moody’s Analytics, is also downbeat in her forecasts for Florida. Not only will prices fall another 11%, she said, but the bottom won’t hit until mid-2012, about a year later than the nation as a whole. Some metro areas won’t get back to their pre-recession peaks until long after the present owners are old and gray.

    She doesn’t expect Naples, for example, to come all the way back until the late 2030s. Other Florida metro areas with a 20-year wait or longer include Punta Gorda, Palm Bay and North Port.

    “If you’re buying in Florida for retirement,” said Winzer, “maybe you buy next year when prices will be near the bottom. If you’re buying for investment — don’t.”

  15. It’s all turning to shit. We will be wandering nomads in a few months to a year.

    Beats being a wandering nomad carrying a fatal dose of radiation in your guts, I guess.

  16. Incredible stench of death in the air today.

    How’s this for stupid? The company in AUS that owes me money has sent me an e-mail, asking me to collect money on an overdue bill (by three days) from a store that has never been a payment problem.

    Ideas for a response (and yes, I have already eliminated the idea of sending them a brick of irradiated zirconium)?

  17. cobbler (15)-

    If history repeats itself, we will not institute protectionism until it can blowback on us to do maximum damage (think Smoot-Hawley). We’re way too early for that.

  18. Mikeinwaiting says:

    “One cannot say that we are in a recovery right now,” Lawrence Yun

    Coming from him that amounts to “Incredible stench of death in the air today” per Debt.

    “If the price decline persists, even with job recovery, it could hamper some buying enthusiasm.”
    Giving up the ship even if jobs improve, got demand a-hole. I think not. If spring works out the way I think it will the double-dip talk in housing will start to hit the print. Veto better dust off that prediction chart, looks like I may get a pony.

  19. Shore Guy says:

    It looks like we lost a fighter jet:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/mobile/world-africa-12816226?

  20. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Debt 18 tell them to pound salt, they aren’t going to pay you anyway.

  21. Shore Guy says:

    Clot,

    I would collect the money and deduct from It What they owe you.

  22. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Shore 21 Glad our guys got out OK, that is a nice piece of change for that plane.

  23. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Oh, one still missing, they will get him hell or high water.

  24. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Shore you think they are going to give him cash. Of course if they do it is yours Debt.

  25. Mikeinwaiting says:

    I’m sure they owe you more than one bill from that store.

  26. jamil says:

    “Shore 21 Glad our guys got out OK, that is a nice piece of change for that plane.”

    maybe the whole war is classified as stimulus project? this way perhaps no need for that pesky congressional authorization that Candidate Chosen One and his sidekick ranted about before.

  27. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Was looking over a bi-weekly summary from a RE agent I know. It is the bi-polar summary Bi-levels priced 90k more then CHC it much nicer neighborhoods, new construction that doesn’t have a chance. Homes selling are cheaper than they can build them.
    Three houses on the same block 2 right next-store to each other all same models, how would you like to play them off each other. Nice homes by the way not POS, but they do have a problem another sold about 70 k less than these guys are looking for (forclosure) , comps will kill them.

  28. Xroads says:

    People won’t use comps they’ll just listen their realtor who will pull the wool over their eyes. Average Joe thinks prices are down %50 and now is the time to buy especially if rates are going to rise

  29. Kettle1^2 says:

    Mike

    The only ones who benefit from war are the ones who finance it and those who supply the weapons. everyone else gets F’d. From that point of view Libya is a great stimulus for the military industrial complex and the banks financing them. Libya is costing the US about 100 million / week from what i read.

  30. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Xroads the mortgage company will use the comp, no approval at that price no sale. You or I may be approved for X amount but the house has to appraise to carry the price.

  31. still_looking says:

    Another day, another tale of foreclosure woe.

    Last night, yet again, I heard the same story: unemployed, now divorced and losing the house. Depressed, vaguely suicidal.

    I hear it every working day in the Pit.

    Just sayin’

    sl

  32. 30 year realtor says:

    #31 Xroads – If you are going to insult agents, please say something valid. You can do better.

  33. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Ket I heard that also, I was thinking of posting something along those lines. Now let me see we are broke & blowing (borrowing,printing) 100 mil a week so Europe can get their light sweet crude. Should have let Europe handle it not our problem. If anyone thinks France was the first one in because they care about Libyans killing each other well Ok whatever.
    So here is the plan get the hell out of the middle east altogether, drill here where ever we have oil (jobs). Cut foreign aid of all kinds 60% use money as an incentive to trucking companies to put 18 wheelers on nat gas, change over trucks or build new ones (US manufacture only, jobs jobs jobs) infrastructure to support fleet (more jobs). Build nuclear power plants, yes nuclear. ket you know which ones we should be using (safest) I’m sure others do. Save a bundle on the military by doing this, want to keep the military ind complex going build missile defense system for continental USA. If we don’t have one that works yet R&D till we do. That is a good start.

  34. Mikeinwaiting says:

    30 year that you for your impute yesterday , I thought so. Good to hear from someone in the trenches.

  35. NJ Toast says:

    For anyone engaged in a job search, here is a link to a list of networking venues in the area:

    http://www.landingexpert.com/ec/210/NetworkingEvents.pdf

  36. NJ Toast says:

    17 – Debt,

    What’s wrong with being a wandering Nomad?

    NJ Toast – FNA Nomad :)

  37. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Still 34 “Another day, another tale of foreclosure woe.” Don’t get me started plenty to go around.

  38. jamil says:

    36, well O just yesterday applauded the Drill baby Drill policy. Unfortunately, only for Brazil (so we can buy it from Brazil). Also, for those who complained about lack of congressional authorization for war, here is the admin response:
    “First of all, consultation with Congress is important, as I said. Secondly, the administration welcomes the support of Congress in whatever form that they want to express that support.”

    So after-the-fact, O welcomes support from congress. The irony of this..Had this been done by the prev admin, Shore Guy’s head would have exploded live in MSNBC.

  39. d2b says:

    30 year-
    No insult there. People don’t use comps, realtors do. They present the info to get a house listed at the recommended price. The buyer may meet with three agents and he goes with the one that thinks the house is worth the most. They should list with the agent that has the best chance of selling the house, but they don’t always do that. The Realtor that sold my father’s house pulled the comps that she felt would support her case.

  40. Kettle1^2 says:

    Mike
    Before we ramp up new nuke construction we would have to logically address nuclear waste and provide a real storage site like Yucca mountain, otherwise you are begging for a waste incident int he long run. All of the stored spent fuel at the japanese reactors is a good example.

  41. d2b says:

    MikeinWaiting-
    I’ve always felt that it was best to leave our oil in the ground and use up everyone else’s. I would support every serious initiative to conserve oil because the price would plummet if we reduce demand. Start with forcing America to drive smaller cars.

  42. Juice Box says:

    First Russian now China.

    BEIJING – China called Tuesday for an immediate cease-fire in Libya where the U.S. and European nations have launched punishing airstrikes to enforce a United Nations endorsed no-fly zone.

    “All parties must immediately cease fire and resolve issues through peaceful means,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said at a regularly scheduled news conference, citing unconfirmed reports that the airstrikes had caused civilian deaths.

  43. Juice Box says:

    re: #43 -The stored waste is the issue, there is an ocean full of water next to the Japanese reactor and they still cannot keep it wet and cool enough to prevent the release of radiation.

    Here is a paper on it, US congress was warned many times, we had Yucca Mountain up and running and then Obama shut it down as a favor to Harry Reid.

    Senario An earthquake drains the pool and those spent rods light up like trick birthday candles.

    http://www.princeton.edu/sgs/publications/sgs/pdf/11_1Alvarez.pdf

  44. Kettle1^2 says:

    Juice,

    if your serious about nuke power you need to fire up some fast neutron reactors to “burn” the nastier actinides down to more manageable material and have a functioning geological storage site.

  45. d2b says:

    Found this in the AC Press and I was hoping one of the board’s scientists/techies could answer a question. Curious about the upkeep costs on solar. If one run’s the numbers, with tax credits solar can work. But that gets blown out of the water if the power companies start to screw customers on the credit buyback or the panels need one major fix. I think that first generation stored power in the home via batteries for consumption. Now solar sells back power to utility companies and the credits offset electric bills. Is there any upkeep needed for solar?

    http://tinyurl.com/4c8ybw8

  46. d2b (42)-

    Sellers in today’s market price based on one thing: the (illusory) number that will pay off all their revolving debt and their mortgage…while still yielding some amount for moving, DP on next home, retirement, etc.

    After determining this mirage of a number, sellers then shop for agents who will agree with them and who have no regard for their own time, efforts or marketing dollars.

    Then, thousands of overpriced houses go on the market, buyers yawn and sit on their hands, and MSM and NAR continue to bleat lies about recovery and stabilization.

    It all works until it doesn’t. Then, it all turns to shit.

  47. Kettle1^2 says:

    Juice,

    in theory a properly composed boron slurry pumped into the pools should be a short term solution so that the situation can be corrected. The slurry would prevent a criticality and be dense enough to provide a substantial thermal mass to adsorb the decay heat. it would also act as “mini” and temporary entombment that would keep oxygen away from the fuel which is the source of the “trick Bday candle” effect.

  48. Painhrtz says:

    Jamil if that is the case your boy Reagan would be in hot water for the first time we dropped ordinance of Libya

  49. box (46)-

    Feh. The Fed is bigger than the courts. They will do what they please and disclose nothing other than what they choose.

  50. Kettle1^2 says:

    d2b 49

    In theory minimal upkeep. Semi annual inspection of the panel and wiring. If you live in a very dusty area or somewhere with high levels of air pollution you may need to power wash the cells every so often to avoid a small drop in efficiency.

  51. Juice Box says:

    FYI the Russians and Chinese are POed because the UN vote was authorized only that the US would provide a logistical supporting role. Obama and Hillary pretty much lied to them for their abstain votes, and we all heard Obama on TV saying we would not be leading this fight and no-fly zone enforcement yet AfricaCom is in charge.

    Meanwhile we sent in B2 bombers and F15s along with 112 cruise missiles even before the French carrier Charles De Gaulle left port. The Brits only began activity yesterday in using RAF Typhoon to patrol the no fly zone, and I think they launched a handful of missiles. The French? They did a fly by and skedaddled, but are supposed to have their carrier in place today.

    This is Obama’s version of what GWB tried to do the UN for the invasion of Iraq with perhaps Hillary playing the role of Colin Powell. The UN did not authorize it then and I think Obama’s and Hilalry’s bait and switch here is going to come back to bite him.

  52. We’ll get some disclosure when you see a tank column pumping artillery shells into the Federal Reserve building and Bergabe’s body hanging from the 14th St. bridge.

  53. If we’ve learned anything from this mess (which we probably haven’t), it’s that the Fed and the cabal of sophisticated bank robbers it protects have no regard or respect for rule of law. Hell, they are the law.

  54. Juice Box says:

    -Take Obama’s Peace Prize-

    Bolivian President Evo Morales has called for US President Barack Obama’s Nobel Peace Prize to be revoked following his decision to attack Libya.

    ‘Two years ago we heard that President Barack Obama had won the Nobel Peace Prize, but is he defending peace in the world now, or isn’t he instead fomenting violence?’ Morales told reporters, days after Obama ordered the bombing of Libya military targets as part of an UN-approved effort to protect civilians.

    ‘How is it possible to give the Nobel Peace Prize to someone who has launched an invasion, a bombing? It’s a violation, an assault, an aggression,’ said Morales, one of Latin America’s most left-leaning leaders and a vocal critic of the United States.

    ‘Obama is the leader of group of thugs who led an assault and an invasion – and that has nothing to do with defending human rights,’ he declared.

    Obama receive the prize in December 2009, less than a year after taking office.

    http://www.skynews.com.au/world/article.aspx?id=592071&vId=

  55. “Japan is a one trick pony that just broke two legs and is waiting to be put down. They have experienced a two decade long recession. Their stock market is still 70% below its 1990 peak. They have no natural resources. They allow virtually no immigration. And their population is in a death spiral. The one and only thing they have going for them is their phenomenal ability to manufacture high quality products and export them to the rest of the world. The earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan severely damaged their just in time manufacturing machine. A surging yen would destroy their export machine by making their products more expensive. Hundreds of high tech Toyota, Honda, and Sony factories are shut. Four hundred miles of ports and harbors have been wiped out. There are rolling blackouts, with one million households without electricity. Over 500,000 people are still homeless.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-land-setting-sun

  56. More from the Jim Quinn piece in #59:

    “Traders figured out what must happen over the coming years. A large swath of Japanese insurers and companies will begin repatriating assets held in other currencies to begin the rebuilding effort at home, driving the value of the Yen higher. At a time of crisis a stronger Yen would severely damage Japan’s export based economy even further. Therefore, Central Banks around the world jointly intervened. The Bank of Japan spent Y2 trillion ($25 billion), while central banks across Europe contributed $5 billion and the Federal Reserve spent $600 million to push down the yen on Friday. The Bank of Japan is doing what they do best – printing money. Quantitative easing is an art form perfected by all Central Banks across the globe. Every disaster over the last twenty years, whether man made (wars, internet collapse, housing collapse, debt meltdown) or caused by nature, are met with the exact same solution – PRINT MONEY.

    This method works until it doesn’t work. Japan’s central bank cannot reverse the demographics. From this point forward the population of Japan will be net sellers of government debt. Japanese insurance companies will be on the hook for $33 billion in claims. They will need to sell government bonds in order to make those payments. The World Bank has estimated the cost of rebuilding to be $235 billion. The government will need to borrow this money. At least 30% of its energy needs are off-line. It already imports 95% of its oil and coal. They will need to increase energy imports to make up for the nuclear energy shortage. Its positive trade balance was already in decline. The clueless CNBC pundits can drone on about how this natural disaster will be good for the Japanese economy because of the substantial rebuilding program, but they are dead wrong. Japan is trapped, with no way out. They will need to issue hundreds of billions in new debt, which cannot be bought by its citizens, pension funds, or insurance companies. How many foreign investors will buy a 10 Year Japanese government bond paying 1%, knowing that Japan wants to weaken its currency? NONE. The only choices are to raise interest rates to attract buyers or print more money. With an already suffocating level of debt, they can’t allow interest rates to rise. They would choke on the interest.

    The Bank of Japan will follow the same script as Ben Bernanke. They will print new Yen and buy the newly issued debt. What an original idea. Japan is caught in a debt stranglehold and demographic nightmare. Their currency will ultimately collapse like a nuclear reactor after a tsunami. When Japan defaults on their debt, the pain will be intense, as they will be throwing their own aged population under the bus. America, on the other hand, will throw the whole world under the bus when we default.”

  57. NJCoast says:

    Time to buy in Fla.? Condos for the price of a car.

    http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/18/real_estate/florida_vacant_homes/

  58. NJCoast says:

    Ooops. Sorry Diane beat me to it.

  59. Juice Box says:

    Kettle, How would you like the job of refueling this concrete pumper truck?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqEbSaE3MAI&feature=feedu

  60. safe as houses says:

    Now this takes talent. Listed as a short sale at 165k, according to zillow was last sold in 2001 for $131,400. So 9.5 years later, and 34k above previous sale, it is a short sale. hmm.

    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4912-Rockledge-Cir-Tampa-FL-33624/44887369_zpid/

    And it is in a beautiful neighborhood. I used to play golf with my NYC coworkers on that course when we were down there on a 6 month assignment.

  61. A.West says:

    Fabius, (10)
    Your post is a good example of how Keynesianism has wrecked the field of economics. The root issue of economics is about economizing, i.e. getting the maximum product (goods and services) at the minimum cost, in terms of factors of production. This is how everyone wins in the long run – everyone gets more goods and services with decreasing effort.
    “Stimulus” has come to mean how to generate the least beneficial goods and services at the maximum cost, i.e. the most “jobs” per unit of product.
    Think about applying this stimulus philosophy to your own life – take the most indirect way around your house to take out the garbage, paint your house with a watercolor brush rather than a spray gun – creating a bigger “job” for you, buy the least attractive house at the highest price to “stimulate” yourself and home prices.
    There’s no free lunch. Economics is just about people doing and making things for each other. You can’t magically make something or some person worth more than they are via trade barriers or regulations or borrowing what you don’t have to spend on what is not the most essential. You can stimulate a ridiculous measure of activity called GDP, as people jerk about trying to play a silly game of stimulus, but any resemblance to genuine economic growth and progress is purely coincidental.

  62. Anon E. Moose says:

    Debt [18];

    As if you really need to be told this: visit the account and offer them a 10% discount for immediate payment in cash/negotiable funds; Begin negotiations with AUS importer.

  63. Kettle1^2 says:

    With the tech available, especially in japan, they should have the fukushima site swarming with drones

  64. Kettle1^2 says:

    68 is for juice

  65. Anon E. Moose says:

    Fabius [12];

    What a crock of $h!t. They’re getting axed after being caught with their hand in the cookie jar, but try to make it sound like CC is firing them just to have a political patronage job to give out. CC could spike that theory by appointing a Democrat (if they can find a NJ D who hasn’t been connected with “financial irregularities”) and praising his integrity at the induction ceremony. If CC gets the veto power he wants, it really won’t matter if this one position goes to the other team; the PR benefit will be worth it.

  66. make money says:

    http://dawnwires.com/currency-markets/japan-boj-warns-again-that-intervention-is-around-the-corner/

    yeah…BOJ threatens to kick teh can down the road for another week or so. What’s a few trillion yen these days? Idiots are making me want to short Japan right now.

  67. Anon E. Moose says:

    Safe [65];

    Curious recent upward diversion in the Zillow estimate price of this house, compared with the continuing downward price trend of the neighborhood and the zip code. I guess “This lising is special”.

  68. safe as houses says:

    #72 Moose

    Suzanne researched it! LOL

  69. safe as houses says:

    It is sad that houses in Florida are nicer, larger, and appear to be in better shape, and less then half the price of a pos cape on a double yellow line rd goes for in NJ.

  70. Confused In NJ says:

    FRANKFURT (Reuters) – The U.S. debt situation is at a “tipping point,” Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher said on Tuesday, and urged the U.S. central bank to refrain from any further stimulus measures.

    “If we continue down on the path on which the fiscal authorities put us, we will become insolvent. The question is when,” Fisher said in a speech at the University of Frankfurt.

  71. Diane says:

    NJCoast…
    I am from FL, moved to NJ in 1998.

    My parents sold their property in 2006 for 350k, which consisted of over an acre, 200 ft of highway frontage, a store, a trailer and a small house.
    Buyer paid cash, then refied 100% thru PNC in 2008.
    Forclosed in 2010, and been on the market for over a year at 160k with no buyers.

    In NJ I often run into people who think they are getting a deal buying a cheap house in FL for their kids, college student, etc. I tell them that empty houses in FL easliy turn into crack houses. Not such a great deal for their son/daughter/grandkids living in a soon to be slum neighborhood. This news, coupled with the 60 Minutes story about all of the homeless families in Seminole family, reinforces the awful state they are in down there.

  72. moose (67)-

    You are truly an idiot. Funny that your idea of a solution begins with me sinking to the company’s level.

  73. JJ says:

    So grieved my taxes today. was like buying a new car. guy said he would go to bat for me with his boss to get me max off, then came back and said boss would not sign off but I can knock a little off house right now if you sign off or you can got to court pay a $30 dollar fee take another day off work and maybe win or lose. Took my two bit tax cut and left.

    Funny he turned down the commerical businesses, high traffic, bad comps approach. But he gave me a bit as I showed a neighbors house is right on top of me and he said that is worth something. Funny the neighbors house is a sideways house with just a sideyard is taxed at 2k higher. I get off cause he is near me but he does not get off cause I am near him. Funny. Either way, winning, DUH. three for five winning. Next years claim is already in.

  74. Shore Guy says:

    Safe,

    Take a look at the photos if that house. The kitchen sucks and they have to fit furniture in every which way just to make it fit.

  75. #76 – Diane – I am from FL, moved to NJ in 1998.

    Ok, a quick question. I was looking through a number of listings…. How bad are the bugs in Florida that people seem to regularly screen in the entire backyard, esp with a pool?

  76. When reading this blog I realised that there are more subjects that need writing about.

  77. Painhrtz says:

    tosh it is for the lizards and bugs. mom lives down there don’t get the attraction

  78. WickedOrange says:

    Anyone have any idea when the reo/foreclosure process in nj will start to get traction?

    Seems like that inventory is just frozen.

  79. nj escapee says:

    82, still not as bad as the rodent problem in ny/nj

  80. gary says:

    ‘How is it possible to give the Nobel Peace Prize to someone who has launched an invasion, a bombing? It’s a violation, an assault, an aggression,’ said Morales, one of Latin America’s most left-leaning leaders and a vocal critic of the United States.

    I openly laugh when that big-eared f*ck comes on the TV and says, “Let me be clear.” Those m’fers in Russia and China must be laughing their b@lls off at us.

  81. JJ says:

    when we elected O he promised we would not have two wars for long, now we have three.

  82. gary says:

    I’d rather be dead, laying at the corner of East 4th Street and Avenue D, than alive in Florida. The last time I was there, visiting the brother-in-law at his condo in Weston, I was stepping on snails and frogs while walking out of his front door, killed two lizards in the house, killed this bug on the wall the size of my index finger and almost stepped on a snake in the backyard. I was there a week. I couldn’t wait to get the f*ck outta there.

  83. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [87] jj

    Well then, he didn’t lie, did he?

    I am loving the fact that the democrats are starting to use the same justification lines that they jumped all over Bush for using. Lotsa hairs being test-split at 1600 Penna. in preparation for the blowback from the talking points.

  84. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [88] gary

    I never much saw the attraction of Florida except that it be enjoyed in small doses.

  85. nj escapee says:

    gary, I’m sure a member of the local hell’s angels chapter could arrange that for you.

  86. gary says:

    Nom,

    Agree. Went to Disney in November a few years ago. THAT was a nice trip. 75 degrees every day… once it’s done, I go back home. But to live there? Forget it.

  87. Jake says:

    I agree sadly, I would love to see an increase in homesales, but it is just stagnant still.

  88. gary says:

    nj escapee,

    I’d rather have a member of the Nomads or the Bones do the job. The Angels are too mainstream.

  89. nj escapee says:

    Man I haven’t been to the East Village since the time I drove a cab in ’73.

  90. AG says:

    87.

    LMFAO. What a Kenyan d_bag.

  91. gary says:

    nj escapee,

    That’s when the East Village was the East Village!! :)

  92. jamil says:

    “Six Libyan villagers shot by US team rescuing pilot.”
    http://www.channel4.com/news/third-night-of-bombing-in-libya

    I knew this would happen. We are shooting muslims in illegal war, started by out of control president. March Madness and Rio too boring for the President?

  93. d2b says:

    Debt 77-
    Sorry, Debt, I agree with Moose. Send the company back a note that you will visit the company and get the money for them and remind them that they owe you commissions. No need to hide the fact that you are going to do this. Be as upfront as possible.

    Moving forward you can collect all of the money this way as a distributorship would. It’s not about sinking to their level. They owe you money but have a product that you want to sell.

  94. Anon E. Moose says:

    Debt [77];

    I thought you said the imported owed you money. My mistake.

  95. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore 83

    thanks. Did you ever hear of the manned capsule that the Russians apparently lost to deep space? It has never been confirmed but there are apparently some amateur radio recordings of some of the transmissions.

  96. Importer owes me money. However, there are some laws in place that preclude my legally collecting in cash from clients of mine, pocketing what is owed to me, then sending the importer the balance. Also, all billing and remittances are done by a local clearing/warehousing agent, with whom I have no beef. In fact, the importer owes them money, too.

  97. Libtard says:

    Greetings all. It’s been quite busy lately here at the uranium mine. Just wanted to let you know that I’m alive and well and a bit tired. I’m gonna keep on lurkin’ until I get some free time. Nice to see the return of 3B. Now where is damn Bi guy?

  98. safe as houses says:

    #79 Shore Guy says:
    March 22, 2011 at 11:37 am
    Safe,

    Take a look at the photos if that house. The kitchen sucks and they have to fit furniture in every which way just to make it fit.

    Shore Guy, you’ve just described 99% of the houses in towns with “good schools” in North Jersey listed in the 400 to 500k range.

  99. 99% of the houses on the market right now in NJ are steaming piles of fecal matter.

  100. At least it will not be difficult to transition to living in cars and refrigerator boxes.

  101. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore

    “. . . a TEPCO executive vice president, Sakae Muto, said the core of reactor No.1 was now a worry with its temperature at 380-390 Celsius (715-735 Fahrenheit).

    “We need to strive to bring that down a bit,” Muto told a news conference, adding that the reactor was built to run at a temperature of 302 C (575 F).

  102. Painhrtz says:

    JJ 87 that might be the smartest thing you have siad that didn’t have to do with bonds

    Shore 83 that is an awesome read,

    Ket I think you may be right about the deep space capsule but it has only been rumor for years. guess the only way we will truly know is if aliens come down to earth and say I think you lost something. When are you going offline for the twins again?

    Lib, wearing a respirator? plenty of asbestos around them old glen ridge abodes. Hope all is going well

  103. Kettle1^2 says:

    From a JPM memo

    “The likelihood that the Portuguese government will fall this week looks high. This suggests that the sovereign will likely access the EFSF in the near term, despite the current government’s efforts to avoid this outcome.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jpmorgan-likelihood-portuguese-government-will-fall-week-looks-high

  104. Default is the intelligent response, whether sovereign or personal.

    Only fools pay.

  105. Kettle1^2 says:

    Pain 108

    a while back i read that NASA had confirmed the amateur telemetry but not the audio. They confirmed that something transmitting a radio signal was headed into deep space but that it wasn’t US. The only others putting capsules up at the time (61 – 62) were the Russians.

  106. Kettle1^2 says:

    Pain

    tomorrow

  107. Juice Box says:

    re # 98 – Team America F-Yeah!

    The helicopter strafed the ground as it landed in a field outside Benghazi beside the downed U.S. Air Force F-15E Eagle which ran into trouble during bombing raid last night.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S06nIz4scvI

  108. Painhrtz says:

    Ket good luck to you and the wife, have a candy cigar on me

  109. Barbara says:

    Soon all sales will be short sales and the houses will be shells from months and years of neglect. Whether its sellers or banks, everybody wants to recoup their 2006 coin. Not gonna happen. Local governments are afraid to push back because we aren’t far gone enough, but eventually, your lilly white suburban neighborhoods will start looking like Love Canal. I hope then local governments will aggressively summons these properties to the point that the liens account for 30% of the homes value. That might get the banks attention.

  110. JJ says:

    http://forecastchart.com/real-estate-jersey.html

    great historical real estate price info for New Jersey.

  111. Juice Box says:

    Kettle1 – Latest Black Smoke picture. You can see the steam (possibly tritium) in the foreground.

    https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-HBEpdsMYGcs/TXyiLVoEb7I/AAAAAAAAAAQ/kCGx09iEUHg/yQGkS.jp

  112. Diane says:

    Regarding Florida…
    Bugs – Palmetto Bugs! They look like huge c*ckroaches and are almost everywhere. Tiny fleas, sand fleas come out in the late afternoon, are especially bad at low tide. If you sit on the patio, a fan will keep them away, mostly. Beer in one hand, fly swatter in the other. Pools should be screened to keep mosquitoes, animals, snakes and gators out.
    One huge problem seldom mentioned is lice, which has always been a big big problem in FL now and for as long as I can recall.

    Lice, bugs, love bugs, sand spurs, fire ants, drugs, humidity, crime, transients, thunder storms, wildfires, hurricanes, old run down trailer parks, redneck bars, biker bars, no public transportation, southern baptist mentality, cheap watery beer, confederate flags, pathetically low wages, tourists, drunk tourists, poverty, racism, mold, subdivisions (originally swamps, now drained and developed), lizards, gators, pedophiles, elderly drivers…
    NJ ain’t Utopia, my daughters thank me regularly for moving.

  113. Anon E. Moose says:

    Safe [65];

    Are there really bars on the windows?

  114. Barbara says:

    Diane, you forgot murderous pedophiles and murderous tweaked out moms who are Nancy Grace regulars.

  115. Kettle1^2 says:

    Juice 120

    That isnt Fukiushima-1. look at the google maps aerial image:

    http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=37.42139%C2%B0N+141.0325%C2%B0E&aq=&sll=37.666056,141.020679&sspn=0.010191,0.032101&gl=us&ie=UTF8&ll=37.424571,141.036644&spn=0.014757,0.032101&t=h&z=15

    That looks like an oil/chemical depot. Fukushima does not have the density of buildings around like the smoke image you linked, and The tall white tower in your link doesnt exist int he Fukushima-1 site.

  116. jamil says:

    at least union thugs are honest
    http://www.businessinsider.com/seiu-union-plan-to-destroy-jpmorgan

    “The plan is designed to destroy JP Morgan, nuke the stock market, and weaken Wall Street’s grip on power, thus creating the conditions necessary for a redistribution of wealth and a change in government.
    The former SEIU official, Stephen Lerner, spoke in a closed session at a Pace University forum last weekend.

    Lerner said that unions and community organizations are, for all intents and purposes, dead. The only way to achieve their goals, therefore–the redistribution of wealth and the return of “$17 trillion” stolen from the middle class by Wall Street–is to “destabilize the country.”

    Lerner’s plan is to organize a mass, coordinated “strike” on mortgage, student loan, and local government debt payments–thus bringing the banks to the edge of insolvency and forcing them to renegotiate the terms of the loans. This destabilization and turmoil, Lerner hopes, will also crash the stock market, isolating the banking class and allowing for a transfer of power.

    Lerner’s plan starts by attacking JP Morgan Chase in early May, with demonstrations on Wall Street, protests at the annual shareholder meeting, and then calls for a coordinated mortgage strike.

    Lerner also says explicitly that, although the attack will benefit labor unions, it cannot be seen as being organized by them. It must therefore be run by community organizations.”

  117. chicagofinance says:

    Debt Supernova says:
    March 22, 2011 at 1:24 pm
    99% of the houses on the market right now in NJ are steaming piles of fecal matter.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CY43_NlUes&feature=related

  118. Kettle1^ says:

    Shore

    Food for thought:

    TEPCO finally admits that the temperature of Reactor 1 is 380-390 Celsius (715-735 Fahrenheit), and the reactor was meant to run at a temperature of 302 C (575 F). That temperature is when the reactor is fully operational, not when it is supposed to be in a cold shut down mode. If the reactor core is currently hotter then when it is operational….. Spectroscopy along with current Hi-res thermal images would confirm the condition of the core but the current public data makes a fair argument for the real potential that the core has melted and gone critical.

    That is purely speculation, but the core at those temperatures with sea water being pumped is what you would hypothetically expect from a an actively fissioning core. of course you could see those temperatures from decay heat if there is very little cooling occurring in the core.

    Dont forget that TEPCO warned of a possible criticality event in reactor 3.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/22/us-japan-quake-idUSTRE72A0SS20110322?WT.tsrc=Social%20Media&WT.z_smid=twtr-reuters_%20com&WT.z_smid_dest=Twitter

  119. Kettle1^ says:

    Shore,

    That they have instruments still functioning anywhere near the core is very impressive.

  120. safe as houses says:

    #122 moose

    I didn’t even catch that. That was a really nice middle class family neighborhood when I was down there in 98. We couldn’t believe you could buy a 3/2 house for 100 to 120k. The cheap cost of living was a huge reason why 95% of my coworkers who were working in the Tampa office took a package instead of relocating to NYC area. I wonder if 2013 houses will be back to that price, although the neighborhood may have changed a bit.

  121. chicagofinance says:

    chicagofinance says:
    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    March 22, 2011 at 2:48 pm
    There is always more to learn in this world…….
    I never knew what “coprolite” was……

    WSJ
    URBAN GARDNER
    MARCH 21, 2011
    The Art of Selling Dino Dung
    By RALPH GARDNER JR

    I can afford to miss an Impressionist sale at Christie’s or a wine auction at Sotheby’s. Another will be along shortly. But when I heard they were auctioning dinosaur dung at I.M. Chait I had to rush right over. And with questions, no less.

    I suppose the first ones would be: Who buys dino dung? What’s the market? And what about provenance? Provenance is everything in the auction business. I’m not talking about who was the last person to own it before it transferred to your hands. I mean what kind of creature manufactured it. I’d expect that offal from a tyrannosaurus rex would be more valuable than from some anonymous three-foot dinosaur from the Pleistocene.

    “Nobody knows where they’re from,” admitted Jake Chait, the company’s natural history director as he opened the case to remove the sandy brown specimen. “There’s no way to tell.”

    I could see his point. The artifact looked like, well, dung, and not necessarily dinosaur dung. From everything I could tell it might just as well have been produced by a German shepherd. But what about DNA testing? Can’t you test everything for DNA these days? Couldn’t you bore a hole into its core, extract a tiny sample, and find brontosaurus molecules in there?

    “It could be from a long-ago creature they may have never found a complete example of,” explained Josh Chait, Jake’s older brother and the auction house’s director of operations. There’s also a third brother, Joey. I came up in the elevator at the Fuller Building, where the Los Angeles—based company is renting space for this Thursday’s sale, with Joey. But that’s the last I saw of him. I don’t know what his role in the company is.

    The operation is owned by their dad and mom, Izzy and Mary Ann, who specialize in Chinese ceramics. That helped explain why, for example, there might be a giant bat skeleton or a meteorite on the sales floor next to, say, a Ming Dynasty porcelain bowl.

    The price was right, however. Of the dung. I can’t speak to the Chinese ceramics. The piece Josh removed from the case for me to examine had an auction estimate of $400 to $600 and is described in Chait’s handsome catalog as “Coprolite—A Fine Complete Specimen.”

    It was surprisingly heavy, like a rock. And why so affordable? “It’s more common than, say, a fossil,” Jake explained. “A lot of people who find it don’t know what it is.”

    I could see why. But were I to bid what guarantee did I have it was from the Jurassic and not from November. (Who wouldn’t want such a novelty—you could put it on your carpet at a c-cktail party and when somebody screamed announce, “I know what you’re thinking, but it’s 65 million years old.”)

    “We have six or seven paleontologists,” Jake said. “We vet everything.”

    “We offer a full money-back guarantee,” Josh added.

    I don’t want anyone to think dinosaur dropping and Ming vases were the only thing on the menu. There were far more amazing objects. For instance, the massive triceratops skull is estimated at a $125,000 to $175,000 selling price, and the tyrannosaurus rex estimated at $250,000 to $300,000.

    “We’ve never had one before,” Jake said of the triceratops. “And this is the largest tyrannosaurus rex skull we’ve ever had.”

    The Chaits said that most of their specimens come from private collectors. They were reluctant to name their customers but described typical dinosaur buyers as “well off older males,” and said they count 20 to 30 members of the Forbes 400 among their clients.

    Part of a giant fossil’s allure, Josh explained, is that as opposed to, say, a Matisse that, “unless you know what it is you might walk right by it, a dinosaur skull is an immediate conversation starter.”

    “And it’s art in its own way,” Jake added.

    “It’s definitely sculptural,” Josh observed.

    The brothers said that celebrities are especially avid dinosaur collectors—back then T Rex or stegosaurus consumed the sort of oxygen Lady Gaga or George Clooney does when he or she walks into a room these days. While they declined to divulge their customers it’s well know that actors Nicolas Cage and Leonardo DiCaprio got into a bidding war for a 67-million-year-old tyrannosaurus skull, much like the one on sale this Thursday, at a Los Angeles I.M. Chait auction in 2007. Mr. Cage won, walking off with the skull (though he undoubtedly had it shipped) for $276,000.

    Having visited the American Museum of Natural History laboratory where specimens such as these are liberated from the rock where they’ve been loitering all these millennia, and having witnessed the time and effort it takes, I was slightly suspicious that the Chaits examples seemed so complete. For example, the T Rex had better teeth than the average West-Sider.

    “Sixty or seventy percent are real,” Jake said.

    “We insist the pieces be anatomically and scientifically correct,” Josh added.

    I wondered whether the Chaits had a duckbill dinosaur, my favorite growing up, with the possible exception of the brontosaurus. It seemed a gentle giant. In fact, They had one in the next room, next to the meteorites, with a relatively modest auction estimate of $42,000 to $48,000. “We had one last year—15 feet to 20 feet—his name was Cory,” Jake said. “Unfortunately, he didn’t sell. The market was still in a slump and a lot of our business are big investment brokers.”

    It was humbling to think that these proud creatures who once ruled the Earth are now prey to the economy, just like the rest of us. “Our business fluctuates with the Dow Jones,” Josh said.

  122. Kettle1^ says:

    Shore,

    Look at this thermal image again.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/bernanke/heatAll.jpg

    If reactor 1 is supposedly shut down yet the core temp is above standard operating temp, then what does that suggest about reactor 3!? I am also curious at to why the intact roof of reactor 2 is so hot. That is the reactor that apparently had the lower cooling torus blowout. The smaller hot spots at the edges of the reactor buildings (1 & 3)seem as though they could correspond to the spent fuel pools. If that is the case those spent fuel rods are getting very hot.

  123. Kettle1^ says:

    Pain,

    thanks! maybe i will have a bottle of warm milk and whiskey.

  124. cobbler says:

    kettle [127]
    It may be a translation or transcription error regarding the temperature. 380-390°C is above the critical temperature for water (374°C); if there is no water in the reactor, there is no reason for the temperature to be at 380°C, it will go higher within minutes. If there is water (and they’ve been pumping the seawater in all the time) , one can’t have this temperature.

  125. Diane says:

    Thanks Barbara. You are correct. Will add to the list.
    I enountered too many crack head moms down there (now meth has replaced the crack), or the other extreme, bible-thumpers. After living in NJ, when I go back to visit my old area once a year (ALL my relatives are in FL or NC), seems like the twilight zone.

  126. safe as houses says:

    #134 Diane,

    Were you part of the migration from the Tampa to NY office for a financial company in the Spring and Summer of 98?

  127. Diane says:

    Safe, no. I was born in FL (Daytona Beach). I had been working in Orlando when I took a transfer in 98 to NJ. I requested the transfer. I moved from Port Orange, FL to Pittstown, NJ, in Hunterdon Co. I had visited the area several months before making the move.

  128. safe as houses says:

    #136 Diane

    Gotcha. 1 of the few Floridians who took the transfer to NYC in 98 was named Diane, was just curious if you were the same person.

  129. Kettle1^2 says:

    Cobbler 134

    the reactors are normally pressurized and unless containment is compromised then standard pressure inside the reactors is well above 1 atm. As such water could be hotter then 100 C

    the temperature may also refer to the fuel elements ( centerline temp) which would make more sense. Regardless, the current temp being over normal operating temp in a shutdown reactor is not a good thing

  130. JJ says:

    you know this whole nuclear thing is so last week, the japs are over it too, the stk market is over it too lets move on.

  131. Diane says:

    #137
    I lived out in the hinterlands until my youngest graduated from HS in 2007. Great place to raise kids but got boring for me. Sold my home, took a job in Wayne, and caught hell from my friends for renting! gasp! This is when I found this blog…

  132. gary says:

    Dear Sellers,

    23% of all mortgages are currently underwater. Within five years, 40% will be underwater. Any questions?

  133. Kettle1^ says:

    Gary 141

    Yes, what time is dancing with the stars, and american idol ?

  134. Lone Ranger says:

    “Within five years, 40% will be underwater. Any questions?”

    Where are the swimming lessons?

  135. gary says:

    Ranger,

    The swimming lessons have been outsourced.

  136. gary says:

    Kettle,

    It’s Amerikan Idle, get it straight!!

  137. Anon E. Moose says:

    Kettle [131];

    Can a brother get a legend?

    BTW, good luck with the arrival(s). I found online poker to pass the time wonderfully during those late nights when only being held will suffice – computer mouse in one hand, baby in other arm. Of course, having two complicates that.

    “Go to it,” it said, “and good luck.”

  138. cobbler says:

    kettle [138]
    Is it technically possible to measure the centerline temperature, especially when the reactor is electrically depowered? If yes, then certainly 380°C is quite feasible. Between the rods, however, 380°C would indicate the total absence of liquid water in the reactor (either supercritical, or supeheated steam).

  139. relo says:

    Ket,

    Best of luck tomorrow.

    Tony

  140. Anon E. Moose says:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/why-i-am-never-going-to-own-a-home-again-536051.html

    The ‘expert’ is kind of a flake and I always assume these “XYZ Capital” guys are just talking their book (e.g., long builders), but one point he makes is that the pimping the “American Dream” as owning a home is just a way of businesses capturing their workforce. Maybe out in the hinterlands, like a factory town, but what about the major metros, where one can (and probably should) switch employers without switching addresses? Especially if there is a regional concentration of one industry that would make the switch feasible, like banking in Wilmington, DE or Charlotte, NC?

  141. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Ket, what’s happenning tomorrow that you would need good luck?

  142. chicagofinance says:

    Neanderthal Economist says:
    March 22, 2011 at 5:04 pm
    Ket, what’s happenning tomorrow that you would need good luck?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acVh5D_VGcM&feature=related

  143. Shore Guy says:

    121,

    Diane, it sounds like an old country song.

  144. Lone Ranger says:

    Kettle,

    All the best. Go get em!

  145. Shore Guy says:

    Ket,

    I don’t have time right now but two thoughts:

    I seem to recall saying that the thermal images f 1 and 3 bothered me he most. The temp in 2, I would guess d caused by steam; the place may be a nuclear sauna.

  146. speedkillsu says:

    OK all you homeowners time to caught up some more money for the Abbott dist …http://blogs.app.com/capitolquickies/2011/03/22/judge-in-school-funding-case-faults-state/

  147. Fabius Maximus says:

    #66 A West

    Think of it more of “Supply and Demand” The gvmt as the worlds biggest consumer, tells its suppliers, “Here are my demands”. Let the gvmt go Walmart on the supply base. If Dell won’t play ball on computer supply, then ask Panasonic to start building Toughbooks in Seacaucus. Double the current order and take 20% off the current price we pay.

    Lets make this the gvmt new perfered supplier list. http://www.americansworking.com/

    Now I’m off to finish up my taxes. I suspect I will pay more to the US than GE, this year (and next).

  148. Fabius Maximus says:

    #70 Moose
    I’m not commenting on what he as done or not done. I’m just pointing out the unintended consequence. In this case the GOP base in North Jersey is not happy that he has cut off a major fundraising platform.

    “September 18 was the “Beefsteak” fundraiser for the Passaic County Republican Party, held at the Brownstone in Paterson (where else?)”

    On Sunday I was sitting in a diner when two politicos in the booth beside me were having a clandestine meeting, One was a mole reporting on the inner working of the BCRO kitchen cabinet (why do these people have these meetings in public places). Overall there are many in the North Jersey GOP not happy with CC. I think they are having a tough time raising money. Graydon and Ellorys parent say that the amount they would have donated is going to the school district top support Ellorys Junior Varisty Soccer progarm that was going to get cut when CC cut the aid to the district.

  149. Fabius Maximus says:

    Further NJReReport Tax News of the Day

    Fabius vs NJ Division of Taxation has been resolved.
    As some may recall, NJDoT started coming after me for $40 they said I owed from 2006. The resolution is that NJDoT will be cutting me a check for a further refund and a conference is no longer required.

    The thing that really annoys me is that after the first call to them it was clear that this was a trawling exercise and the people running it were not in a position evaluate the evidence. As I went as far as the appeal process I think the state wasted about $1K in resources trying to get $40. That means if say, it costs $5 to get a peon to issue a letter and follow up, if more than 1 in 30 push it as far as I did, they lose money.

  150. Politics and negotiation are not the answer.

    Violence is.

  151. Burn the mf’er to the ground, summarily execute lots of politicians and gubmint leeches, and hit the reset button.

    Nothing short of this will work. The junkie has to go cold ass turkey.

  152. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [156] Fabius,

    I used to clerk at the Court of Federal Claims. You can’t imagine the laws and regulations, notaby the FAR, that govern agency contracting that you will have to change. Many of these are creations of democratic administrations with the twin and sometimes conflicting goals of protecting the public fisc and promoting US jobs.

    The policy you propose would run headlong into the Competition in Contracts Act, Davis-Bacon, and the Bid Protest Act. The Court of Fed Claims, and the district courts hearing cases under Scanwell jurisdiction would be clotted up for years.

    As a primer on the issue, google the tanker contract dispute, or the contract to replace Marine One helicopters.

  153. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Fabius, this one’s for you.

    http://www.taxfoundation.org/blog/show/27134.html

    Considering that the overall tax distribution was more equal in past decades, the question is this: Do you find it more comforting or alarming that the fiscal health of our treasury is much more dependent on the very top earners than at any time in our history? And is the answer to tax them even more?

    Before you can lock the doors to prevent this cohort from leaving, they’ll be gone. And so will we.

  154. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Off Topic Alert

    I keep a few gas cans, holding up to 12 gallons of gas for insurance against price spikes, wife fails to fill tank, etc. Not just for bug outs, more of a hedge. And it does get used since the wife periodically leaves the car on E.

    One good thing about filling up these cans is that you can measure precisely, or as precisely as the can allows. So if a station is shorting you, it is easy to see.

    Tonight, I went to the Gulf station in downtown Kenilworth. Filled two 2 gallon cans, and I noted that the pump on the first one read 2.03 gallons when he stopped filling. But when I got the can in the garage and checked the level, it was short by an appreciable amount, perhaps a pint.

    So I will be diming out the Gulf station on Boulevard in Kenilworth. And since the state won’t do much anytime soon, the blogosphere is the next best place to shame.

  155. chicagofinance says:

    Essex: I have located out lovemobile…..
    http://www.biggayicecreamtruck.com/about/

  156. Kettle1^2 says:

    Cobbler

    follow up from Tepco….. They answered the question. The high temps ate measured at the surface of the steel container vessel

    TEPCO tried to restore the instruments’ functions with make-shift power sources, including batteries. It says the thermometer at the Number 3 reactor started working again last Saturday morning.

    At that time, the temperature of the reactor’s external surface was 366 degrees Celsius, much higher than normal. The company increased the amount of sea water it was using to cool down the reactor.

    The thermometers for the Number 1 and Number 2 reactors were restored on Sunday.

    The power company says it will pour more water onto the Number 1 reactor, as its temperature was 394 degrees on 3:30 PM on Tuesday.

  157. Kettle1^2 says:

    Cobbler

    the steel vessels ate hotter then when they are up and running. And bloomberg just posted an expose of sorts about design flaw cover ups on reactor 4

  158. Kettle1^2 says:

    Thanks for the wishes, all!

  159. cobbler says:

    nom [162]
    The problem with the rich paying larger share of the total tax than ever is how one analyzes it – as a result of wrong tax distribution, or as a result of growing income inequality. Right now, share of the national income earned by the top 10% is the highest since the 1920s – so no wonder their share of taxes is the greatest, as well. If we return to the income distribution of 1950s-60s, share of the tax paid by the top earners will drop to much lower levels than it’s been back then.

  160. That’s scary!

    Dan Statlander
    http://www.statelandbrown.com
    (Real estate experts in Boca Raton Florida)

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