North Jersey “Dancing along the bottom”, Central still dropping?

From the Record:

Home prices stable in region

Condo and co-op prices dropped more than 10 percent in the New York metropolitan area, including North Jersey, in the first quarter, but home values overall were flat from the same period a year ago, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday.

The median price of a home in the area, which includes Bergen, Passaic and Hudson counties, as well as Westchester and New York City, rose 0.5 percent to $439,300, the NAR said.

Nationally, home prices were down 4.6 percent, to a median $158,700.

With values significantly below the levels of 2006 and 2007, sellers and buyers are still adjusting to the new price realities, real estate agents say.

Some buyers “just keep missing great deals because they want to keep low-balling their prices,” said Sheldon Neal, a Re/Max agent in Oradell. “On the sellers’ side, one of the toughest challenges is to make them realize the truth about their current market value of their home. Many are still wanting to push the list price higher.”

In a sign that the real estate market may be stabilizing, the number of sales in New Jersey was running at an annual rate of 109,500. While that’s down dramatically from the 180,000-plus sales pace of 2004 and 2005, it’s close to the rate of 2010, when 110,000 homes were sold in the Garden State. Sales were boosted in the first half of the year by an $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers. The fact that sales have remained near the 2010 level, even without the tax credit, suggests that “the state’s housing market is building a solid foundation without a government incentive,” said Jarrod C. Grasso, CEO of the New Jersey Association of Realtors.

From the APP:

Local home prices fall 6.9 percent

The median price of a home in central New Jersey fell 6.9 percent during the first quarter, a trade group reported Tuesday, in a sign that the supply of homes on the market continues to outweigh the demand from buyers.

The figures gave credence to what real estate observers have suspected: Those who had hoped the housing market had bottomed out will have to wait longer.

“This is probably less of a spring market than we had hoped,” said Russell Tucker, senior vice president of Millburn-based ISB Mortgage Co., a subsidiary of Investors Savings Bank. “That’s the bottom line. We should be in full swing right now, but that’s not the case.”

The National Association of Realtors reported that the median price of a home in the region that includes Monmouth, Ocean, Middlesex and Somerset counties was $303,200, down from $325,800 the same quarter a year ago. The median means half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.

Central New Jersey prices fell more than the national average. The median U.S. home price was $158,700, down 4.6 percent from $166,400 the same quarter last year, according to the Realtors’ group.

And first-quarter figures released by Jeffrey Otteau, president of the Otteau Valuation Group Inc., a research firm in East Brunswick, showed only one of 21 New Jersey counties saw prices appreciate during the past year. Somerset County was up 2.6 percent from last year.

Morris County fell 4.9 percent; Monmouth County fell 7.8 percent; Middlesex County fell 8.4 percent; and Ocean County fell 10.2 percent.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

136 Responses to North Jersey “Dancing along the bottom”, Central still dropping?

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. grim says:

    From the National Association of Realtors:

    2011 Q1 – Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes for Metropolitan Areas

    2010 Q1 to 2011Q1 Change (By MSA)
    Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ -18.4%
    Atlantic City, NJ -9.4%
    New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA -1.2%
    New York-Wayne-White Plains, NY-NJ +0.5%
    NY: Edison, NJ -6.9%
    NY: Nassau-Suffolk, NY -1.3%
    NY: Newark-Union, NJ-PA +1.2%
    Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD -5.1%
    Trenton-Ewing, NJ -5.0%

  3. Mike says:

    Homeowner’s equity:
    2006: $12.8 trillion
    2011: $6.3 trillion

  4. Mike says:

    The government’s recent $8,000 cash incentive for first-time home buyers has proved even more costly for recipients than for taxpayers, according to data released Monday. Typical buyers have lost twice as much to price declines as they received from the program.

    The median home value fell to about $170,000 in March from $185,000 a year earlier, according to Zillow.com. That means a buyer who closed on a house just before the tax-credit program expired in April 2010 collected $8,000 but has since lost $15,000 in value. Those who bought earlier in the program have done worse; the median price is down $20,000 from March 2009.

  5. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    CoreLogic, IAS indices show home prices down again

    Home prices fell in both the CoreLogic and Integrated Asset Services indices in March.

    Nearly every index in the U.S. showed a drop in home prices in early 2011, including the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index and Clear Capital’s measurements, which actually showed a new low since the financial crisis.

    Downward trends are pushing more borrowers underwater on their mortgage and draining more losses from mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

    CoreLogic said home prices fell for the eight-consecutive month in March with a 7.5% decline from one year ago. Prices fell 5.8% in February.

    CoreLogic Chief Economist Mark Fleming said the first-time homebuyer tax credit is still haunting the market, pulling “a significant number of sales forward” and artificially inflating prices before it expired in April 2010.

    “Absent the tax credit, it is understandable that we see prices continue to decline when compared with last year,” Fleming said. “As we move further away from that support, we will see a leveling of prices and eventually organic improvements in the market.”

    Meanwhile, IAS data showed prices fell 3.3% in the first quarter from the same period a year earlier. Home prices on its index are now down more than 25% from the peak four years ago. At the end of the first quarter, IAS home prices were down to a level not seen since the middle of 2003.

  6. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    N.J. fund to help homeowners fix underground tanks runs out of money, creates $33M of spill cleanups

    For Marty Lipp, the only thing deeper than the 8-foot hole contractors dug in his driveway to remove an old heating oil storage tank may soon be the one in his wallet for having to unexpectedly pick up the tab for the work.

    Lipp, 53, of Maplewood, will now have to fork over up to $12,000 after a popular state fund created to help residents remove leaky underground tanks ran dry last week — just five years after its coffers bulged with $90 million.

    “I checked the website a day or so before this happened, and suddenly they hang out the sign and say there’s no more money?” said Lipp, a freelance writer whose work has appeared in The Star-Ledger. “I don’t understand where the oversight was, and how they could not see this was coming.”

    About 1,300 people seeking grants or loans will not get help for at least a year, creating a backlog of an estimated $33 million worth of spill cleanups, said Frank Pinto, chief financial officer for the state Department of Environmental Protection’s Site Remediation Program. The money woes also will prevent the agency from processing new requests until at least 2014, Pinto said.

    Once celebrated as the solution to getting rid of rusted and aging tanks, the fund ran out of cash because of maneuvers to divert dollars to other priorities and expand the number of people and institutions eligible for the program.

  7. rather not say says:

    everything sucks!

  8. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore

    reactor 4 building is begining to lean to the right. Tepco talking about shoring it up. This could get nasty if the building collapses

  9. Mike says:

    Rather Number 7 Except the weather

  10. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Banks Said to Offer $5 Billion to Resolve Probe of Foreclosures

    Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., along with three other U.S. mortgage servicers, proposed paying $5 billion to settle a probe of their foreclosure practices by state and federal officials, two people familiar with the matter said.

    The proposal made by banks yesterday during settlement talks in Washington came after state attorneys general and federal officials offered revised settlement terms and a proposal for banks to fund principal writedowns for homeowners.

    The probe by all 50 states was triggered by claims of faulty foreclosure practices after the housing collapse, which state officials said may violate their laws. The original settlement proposal offered by states and federal agencies drew criticism from banks and Republican attorneys general opposed to a deal that would reduce principal amounts for borrowers.

    In a new proposal, officials called for a fund, administered by state and federal officials, that would in part pay for principal writedowns, said Geoff Greenwood, a spokesman for Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller. Miller, a Democrat, is leading the negotiations for the states. Attorneys general haven’t made a proposal for a monetary payment by the banks, he said.

  11. vodka (8)-

    Whatever the worst possible outcome is at Fukushima, that is what will occur.

  12. Kettle1^2 says:

    Grim

    5 billion? That’s not even chump change compared to their possible exposure. Their exposure could easily be hundreds of billions plus criminal charges if laws were actually enforced ( they won’t be of course)

  13. Yeah, that PM bubble has certainly burst.

    Wonder how many time Crimex will jack margin requirements today.

    http://tinyurl.com/3u7j8xn

  14. Speaking for myself, I can’t wait until a hamburger costs $12mm…or a silver ingot.

  15. Shore Guy says:

    Kettle,

    Not to worry. They will just rebrand it as the Leaning Reactor of Fuk-u-shima and put its image on sushi-joint paper placemats.

  16. Fabius Maximus says:

    #14 Clot

    “I will gladly pay you Tuesday for an ingot today!”

  17. morpheus says:

    #6:
    Well that just kills the deal. Just as the seller was going to investigate the state program to remove the oil tank and put the steps of removal in the contract. that sucks

  18. Lone Ranger says:

    “everything sucks!”

    [7],

    The bahama mama’s are tasty.

  19. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Give it a few years and it will be happening here:

    Irish Bombshell: Government Raids PRIVATE Pensions To Pay For Spending

    Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/irish-bombshell-government-raids-private-pensions-to-pay-for-jobs-program-2011-5#ixzz1M2mH2qxU

  20. Lone Ranger says:

    “Homeowner’s equity:
    2006: $12.8 trillion
    2011: $6.3 trillion”

    Mike [3],

    http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/clip_image0031.gif

  21. “everything sucks!”

    No, the liberal real estate terrorists suck. Obama sucks. The left wing media sucks.

    I put them all with the lowest of the low animals of the earth–snakes, vultures and cats.

    I don’t care how far I’m under water, I will never ever give my damn house away. My neighbor feels the same way. He’s had his house on the damn market for three years and has encountered nothing but insults. He’s refused to rent the place and has been through 3 or 4 different realtors. He’s relocated to Boston and is paying for two places. He’s being tough and will not budge a single inch on the damn price. I admire him for that.

  22. Lone Ranger says:

    “He’s relocated to Boston and is paying for two places.”

    Obviously, he attended a Big Ten school. Did he graduate?

  23. jamil says:

    Don’t worry. Your 401k, IRA and ROTH IRA are safe.

    “The Irish government plans to institute a tax on private pensions to drive jobs growth, according to its jobs program strategy, delivered today. Without the ability sell debt due to soaring interest rates, and with severe spending rules in place due to its EU-IMF bailout, Ireland has few ways of spending to stimulate the economy. Today’s jobs program includes specific tax increases, including the tax on pensions, aimed at keeping government jobs spending from adding to the national debt. The tax on private pensions will be 0.6%, and last for four years, according to the report”

    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0510/breaking48.html
    “The federation described the levy as “onerous” and said that raiding private pension pots went against recent efforts to encourage people to save for their retirement.”

  24. chicagofinance says:

    New York-Wayne-White Plains, NY-NJ +0.5%

    The number was negative, but Brigadoon Upon Hackensack pushed it green….

  25. Libtard in the City says:

    Obama running at a 60% approval rating. Poor Jamil.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110511/ap_on_re_us/us_ap_poll_obama_boost

  26. chicagofinance says:

    Shore: very funny, but I feel guilty laughing about it….

    Shore Guy says:
    May 11, 2011 at 7:12 am
    Leaning Reactor of Fuk-u-shima

  27. 3b says:

    #25 Perhaps I am stupid, but how exactly is taxing private pensions going to create jobs? Are they going to take the proceeds and create more government jobs?

  28. Shore Guy says:

    “”The tax on private pensions will be 0.6%, and last for four years, according to the report”

    Juat like the temporary tolls on the Parkway, which were to be removed once the initial-construction bonds were paid.

  29. Shore Guy says:

    Temporary taxes are like a temporary loss of virginity.

  30. Shore Guy says:

    3b

    That seems to be it, in a nutshell.

  31. Shore Guy says:

    Stu,

    That approval rating is something like 32% lower than GB The Elder had at this point in his presidency. Unless someone nukes a U.S. port, etc., the election is going to turn on economic issues, which often are connected to energy issues.

  32. jamil says:

    27. Yes, you should feel happy. Maybe he gets re-elected and we can continue 9% unemployment (Oh, I mean funemployment as it is described in State Media). We can start wars in middle east without pesky congressional approvals, carry out extrajudicial killings of US citizens and nationalize companies left and right. After all, it worked out so well in Cuba and Soviest Union. and most important of all, spending must be increased by trillions as we all know money grows in trees.
    This must be paradise for you.

  33. 3b says:

    #26 Lots of listings in Bergen County towns now with 3 handles, in some of the so called best towns. In the less desirable towns prices with a 2 handle are becoming more and more common.

    As far as B-on-H, probably half the listings are under 400K now , something not seen in years. And more houses come on the market there every day; another 3 since yesterday. IMO away from what the numbers might say Bergen Co, is not finished dropping. In fact from my own humble observations, the declines in asking prices this year have been much greater than in the last couple of years.

  34. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore

    wasn’t FICA originally supposed to be temporary?

  35. make money says:

    3b[29],

    Since they borow, they’re taxes pension funds to keep curent payrolls. letting people go during a recession compounds the jobs problem.

    If I was running Ireland, I would default and hit the reset button. Best move is to default the minute no one will lend money you any longer.

  36. Libtard in the City says:

    Actually Jamil, it’s doubtful I’ll be voting for him. I just wanted to see if you were still here. Mission Accomplished.

  37. All Hype says:

    Brigadoon Upon Hackensack….

    That is really funny! Almost a royal feel to it.

    Anyone going to the Seychelles anytime soon?

  38. whipped says:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/gary-shilling-house-prices-2011-3

    another 20% drop!! according to shilling…whooo hooo!!!!

    still renting and waiting

  39. JC says:

    jamil #25: This is why I have always believed the Roth IRA to be a scam. I’ll keep my conventional one and only pay taxes on it once, thank you very much.

  40. whipped says:

    Renting in bergen looking to buy a house
    Never rented before
    Lived in coops in Manhattan during all my adult life as I never wanted to “flush money down the toilet”- made some profit after I sold my apt and have been renting now for over a year waiting for a “deal” – absolutely no rush as I have a great deal on a rental- paying less than half of what I was paying in the city considering mortgage, maintenance (deduction doesn’t count for much b/c of the AMT)…man how times have changed…obviously if I find the right house for a good deal I’ll take it (considering i’m in for the long haul)- but I’m in no rush to buy a depreciating asset-

  41. jamil says:

    “wasn’t FICA originally supposed to be temporary?”

    just like AMT, supposed to be tax on the 20 richest families. Somehow it evolved to another middle class tax..Any tax that class-warfare people advocate will soon end up affecting directly everybody. Most millionaire already today taxes cover people (or couples) making much less, e.g. 250k family income.

    Taxes are evil.

  42. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Jamil 43 Thank you Captain Obvious isn’t their some social conservative blog you should be masturbating too

  43. jamil says:

    letarded: “Obama running at a 60% approval rating. ”

    I had hard time believing this so I double-checked this. As expected, State Media is working hard for the Messiah. The sample is this:
    46 percent Democrat or leaning Democrat,
    29 percent Republican or leaning Republican,
    4 percent identify as purely independent leaning towards neither party, and
    20 percent answered, “I don’t know.”

    Yeah. This is realistic sample. Why not just getting 100% liberal sample?
    Anyway, advocating Obama cult is the official job of the State Media.. Interestingly, even in this letarded-oversampled poll, GWB had 50% approval rating.

  44. chicagofinance says:

    Obama playing the Osama bounce….if this keeps up, I would be concerned if I was al-Qaida…..all of a sudden all the heir apparents for bin Laden’s post are balking at being in the crosshairs with a Presidential election on tap….

  45. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [97] Confused

    “. Didn’t realize their is significant differences betweem Generic Manufacturers. ”

    And between the generic and brand. Mrs. Deplume is a pharma attorney who is well aware of the quality deviations, and won’t allow doctors to prescribe generics for us. It’s always “fill with brand as written”.

    Libtard, et al.: I have self-contraindicated Levaquin after my own research suggested potential cardiac problems. Also, Dad blew out his Achilles years ago and I have been concerned about a potential genetic predisposition there.

  46. [url=http://aaa.com]aaa[/url]

  47. Libtard in the City says:

    Nom,

    My brother is an ambulance chaser and he sent my case to who I think is the lead lawyer for NJ Levaquin cases which have been consolidated by the courts. He told me he didn’t want my case since I took the drugs a little under two years before my tendon ruptured which he felt was too long of a time delay. Just for sh1ts and giggles, I sent my case to Levinson Axelrod through an email, but I haven’t yet heard back from them. Do you think there is any chance that I can eventually get some moolah for my case? Don’t worry. I won’t hold ya to it.

  48. Kettle1^2 says:

    So shiller calls another 20% drop from currentl levels….

    We are currently at the follow drops on the nominal case shiller index from peak in 2006

    Comp 10: -32%
    Comp 20: – 33%
    NY Metro: -23%

    Anopther 20% drop from current levels would put us at the follow peak to trough drops:

    Comp 10: -46% (CS index value of approx 122)
    Comp 20: – 46% (CS index value of approx 111)
    NY Metro: -39% CS index value of approx 132)

    peak CS Value : bottom CS value (assuming a further 20% drop from current levels)

    Comp 10: 226 : 122
    Comp 20: 206 : 111
    NY Metro: 215 : 132

    Last year that the proposed low value was seen:

    Comp 10: 122 (2001)
    Comp 20: 111 (2000)
    NY Metro: 132 (2002)

    Note that all numbers are rounded and based on the assumption of another 20% drop from current values.

  49. Dan says:

    Chifi,

    Don’t kid yourself. The housing market is in shambles and New York-White Plains-Wayne was only saved by River Edge!!!!!!

  50. Happy Renter says:

    [50] Looks like that’s where we are headed.

    From the article cited by Grim in today’s post:

    “Some buyers ‘just keep missing great deals because they want to keep low-balling their prices,’ said Sheldon Neal, a Re/Max agent in Oradell.”

    Do buyers really keep missing great deals? Or do the deals just keep getting greater with each passing day?

    Reminds me of a scene from Office Space …

    Bob Porter: “Looks like you’ve been missing a lot of work lately.”

    Peter Gibbons: “I wouldn’t say I’ve been ‘missing’ it, Bob …”

  51. JJ says:

    Well, Dominic Barbara has been suspended from practice from 18 months so I guess you have to go with the next best ambulance chaser

    Libtard in the City says:
    May 11, 2011 at 11:14 am

    Nom,

    My brother is an ambulance chaser and he sent my case to who I think is the lead lawyer for NJ Levaquin cases which have been consolidated by the courts. He told me he didn’t want my case since I took the drugs a little under two years before my tendon ruptured which he felt was too long of a time delay. Just for sh1ts and giggles, I sent my case to Levinson Axelrod through an email, but I haven’t yet heard back from them. Do you think there is any chance that I can eventually get some moolah for my case? Don’t worry. I won’t hold ya to it.

  52. JJ says:

    http://www.sibensiben.com/

    btw years ago a friend recommended me to siben and siben, who are 9 jewish brothers who are ambulence chasers. They have like 30-40 of their sons in the practices. It is like the house of lourdes over there, funny part is part of brothers are doctors who work there. So the best is they have a room full of canes, crutches, neck braces, bandages etc. Their doctor on site checks you out writes you up for all the problems, they they do a photoshoot of you with neck brace and cane and all bandaged up then you leave. They sue everyone. I declined to use them but for my auto accident, they said they would sue the cop, the ambulence driver, the car manufacturer, the hospital, the doctors, the driver the owner of the car, the wife of the owner of the car, they sue everyone!!! When you have nine jewish attorneys breathing down your neck slapping liens left and right on everything you own even if you had nothing to do with accident you gladly cough up 5-10K to make them go away. That would be on top of the money the insurance company would pay out. Convincing arguement. However, a little too over the top even for me. My friend did get 100k 20 years ago and siben took 1/3. Not bad.

  53. scribe says:

    This one:

    “Obama running at a 60% approval rating. ”

    Someone noted – proving that whatever you do, you can’t please 40%. Maybe Letterman?

  54. NWNJHighlander says:

    RE: #27
    That push poll is a thing of beauty for a student of Machiavelli.
    They oversampled Democrats by 100%.
    Then they hid the sampling,
    the AP report doesn’t include a link back to the survey’s raw data. In order to find it, one has to go to GfK’s site for its AP polls. The partisan breakdown in the sample is found about halfway through the PDF, which happens to have a robots.txt file that blocks search engines from indexing the PDF file.

    The Dem/Rep/Ind breakdown in this poll is 46/29/4, as AP assigned most of the leaners to the parties. That is a 17-point gap, more than twice what was seen in the 2008 actual popular vote that elected Obama. It only gets worse when independents are assigned properly. When taking out the leaners, the split becomes — I’m not kidding — 35/18/27. Oh, and another 20% “don’t know.”

    CHUTZPAH!!

    #27 Libtard in the City says:
    May 11, 2011 at 8:53 am
    Obama running at a 60% approval rating. Poor Jamil.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110511/ap_on_re_us/us_ap_poll_obama_boost

  55. NWNJHighlander says:

    A mor reasonable tracking poll for Obama’s Approval ratings:
    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

    “..The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 25% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Thirty-seven percent (37%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -12 (see trends). ..”

  56. jamil says:

    57.NWNJHighlander says:
    “That push poll is a thing of beauty for a student of Machiavelli.
    They oversampled Democrats by 100%.
    Then they hid the sampling,”

    It’s not called State Media for nothing. Most people don’t find this the details, only see headlines. Non State controlled media consist only of Fox News and few Internet blogs. Reminds me of Soviet press reporting the party candidate got 101% of votes.

  57. Kettle1^2 says:

    jamil

    Non State controlled media consist only of Fox News…..

    Really???????

  58. 4c says:

    3b,kettle

    I agree this year i’ve seen the lowest asking prices in the so-called best areas in NJ and westchester. i used to think we are close to the bottom. Not any more. Even if wall street got to keep their salaries and jobs, the rest are suffering and prices are going back to 9os.

    Houses are and will be more unaffordable than ever. Not because of their prices/mortgage but because of taxes, stagnant income and unemployment. Thousands of NYC teachers and CT state employees are being laid off.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703730804576315601962756760.html

    We are from from over. No one will be spared if there is no income increase. For a few years the only direction is down especially in bubbly territories like NYC and environs. Only an imbecile would buy right now in our area as jumbo loans are out.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/11/business/11housing.html

    This would destroy the market for a mil and up, lower those asking prices and further depress cheaper houses. When nytimes says it’s time to buy then you know it’s time not to buy.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/11/business/economy/11leonhardt.html

  59. chicagofinance says:

    aka Brigadoon Upon Hackensack

    Dan says:
    May 11, 2011 at 11:29 am
    Chifi, Don’t kid yourself. The housing market is in shambles and New York-White Plains-Wayne was only saved by River Edge!!!!!!

  60. NJSerf says:

    (51) How in the world do they let this guy out on bail?

    If he isn’t already sailing back to Sri Lanka I’d be surprised. Somehow I doubt he ever makes it to sentencing.

  61. rather not say says:

    can someone explain this? Know a couple , they are underwater in their mortgage. They decided to stop paying although they have the money to pay and own a business. How does someone get away with this? What are the reprocussions to this? How do you own a business its a health club with active members being charged each month and just get away with not paying your mortgage????????

    Thanks and everything still sucks!!

  62. 4c says:

    3b,kettle

    I agree this year i’ve seen the lowest asking prices in the so-called best areas in NJ and westchester. i used to think we are close to the bottom. Not any more. Even if wall street got to keep their salaries and jobs, the rest are suffering and prices are going back to 9os.

    Houses are and will be more unaffordable than ever. Not because of their prices/mortgage but because of taxes, stagnant income and unemployment. Thousands of NYC teachers and CT state employees are being laid off.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703730804576315601962756760.html

  63. 4c says:

    We are from from over. If there is no income increase the only direction is down especially in bubbly territories like NYC and environs.

  64. 4c says:

    Who would buy right now in our area as jumbo loans are out.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/11/business/11housing.html

    This would destroy the market for a mil and up, lower those asking prices and further depress cheaper houses. When nytimes says it’s time to buy then you know it’s time not to buy.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/11/business/economy/11leonhardt.html

  65. Libtard in the City says:

    Quite frankly Jamil, I didn’t even read the article.

    As for Rasmussen, they are a complete and utter joke and are typically found to be the least accurate of the major pollsters. For some reason, they are actually a right-leaning poll! Now how could that be?

  66. DL says:

    Bucks county passes a law requiring residents of 23 municipalities along the Neshaminy (sp?) Creek who build a structure that causes rain water run off, to construct a catch system that retains the water on the property. There goes the deck and patio construction business.

  67. DL says:

    Malcom Forbes (creepy eyes) predicts US goes to gold standard within 5 years.

  68. 3b says:

    #52 You mean Brigadoon-on- Hackensack.

  69. Dan says:

    Got it, Chifi. Maybe the rest of us should ask our mayors to throw a celebration parade in honor of River Edge for saving the housing market. Lawrence Yun and Frank could be on the lead float.

  70. Happy Renter says:

    All this talk of “River Edge” … I’ll say it again: I don’t know where you be from, but I be from Brigadoon-on-Hackensack, son!

  71. 3b says:

    #65 It is a huge change form th last 2 years or so. Many listings that I now see in the 350k range would have been flying off the shelf during the bubble at 100 to 150K more. Even houses that have closed int eh first quarter of this year, had they waited until now, could have saved potentially another 25K to 50K more.

    Prices back to 90’s levels?? not far fetched at all.

  72. Libtard in the City says:

    Brigadoon-on-Hackensack median sales price last twelve months, stolen from a local realtor.

    http://www.priv.njmls.xmlsweb.com/Charts/MarketTrends.aspx?type=price&agentid=122853&median=M&status=S&DataPoints=NO&id=0.8780436

  73. A.West says:

    What happens when a teepee makes love to a ranch?
    Behold the miracle of birth:
    http://www.trulia.com/property/1080982693-1880-Mountain-Top-Rd-Bridgewater-NJ-08807
    It’s so ugly. It seems to get listed on and off. This time under $1mn.

  74. Libtard in the City says:

    A. West. (76):

    It might be right up one’s alley, if you were a priest.

  75. West, that house is an absolute POS.

    I actually showed it once. My client mentioned something about burning it down as an improvement.

  76. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    jeez do you get a cigar shop indian with that place

  77. 3b says:

    #75 Where is that Jets fellow from yesterday??

  78. chicagofinance says:

    I assume that this article will be well received here…..

    WSJ
    THE A-HED
    MAY 11, 2011
    How to Turn 100 Trillion Dollars Into Five and Feel Good About It
    The Highest-Denominated Bill Ever Issued Gives Value to Worthless Zimbabwe Currency.

    A 100-trillion-dollar bill, it turns out, is worth about $5.

    That’s the going rate for Zimbabwe’s highest denomination note, the biggest ever produced for legal tender—and a national symbol of monetary policy run amok. At one point in 2009, a hundred-trillion-dollar bill couldn’t buy a bus ticket in the capital of Harare.

    But since then the value of the Zimbabwe dollar has soared. Not in Zimbabwe, where the currency has been abandoned, but on eBay.

    The notes are a hot commodity among currency collectors and novelty buyers, fetching 15 times what they were officially worth in circulation. In the past decade, President Robert Mugabe and his allies attempted to prop up the economy—and their government—by printing money. Instead, the country’s central bankers sparked hyperinflation by issuing bills with more zeros.

    The 100-trillion-dollar note, circulated for just a few months before the Zimbabwe dollar was officially abandoned as the country’s legal currency in 2009, marked the daily limit people were allowed to withdraw from their bank accounts. Prices rose, wreaking havoc.

    The runaway inflation forced Zimbabweans to wait in line to buy bread, toothpaste and other essentials. They often carried bigger bags for their money than the few items they could afford with a devalued currency.

    Today, all transactions are in foreign currencies, mainly the U.S. dollar and the South African rand. But Zimbabwe’s worthless bills are valuable—at least outside the country. That Zimbabwe’s currency happened to be denoted in dollars has amplified appeal, say currency dealers and collectors, particularly after the global financial crisis and mounting public debts sparked inflationary fears in the U.S.

    Dealers prescient enough to buy Zimbabwe’s biggest notes while they were in circulation are now taking their investment to the bank. Mr. Laties spent $150,000 buying bills from people in South Africa and Tanzania with experience moving currency and other clandestine cargo, including migrants, across Zimbabwe’s borders. Sensing that Zimbabwe’s last dollars would be “the best notes ever” on the collector’s market, he even fronted $5,000 to someone who approached him over the Internet.

    “It worked out,” he says. “I got my notes.”

    Frank Templeton, a retired Wall Street equities trader, bought “quintillions of Zimbabwe dollars” through a broker from Zimbabwe’s central bank. On eBay, he now does a brisk trade in the bills from his home in the Hamptons, on New York’s Long Island. “I like to say Warren Buffett made a lot of people millionaires, but I’ve made more people trillionaires,” Mr. Templeton says. The dealer paid between $1 and $2 for each of the bills in several purchases over about a year, and now sells them for around $5-$6 apiece.

    House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R., Wis.) and Stanford economist John B. Taylor are among the new owners of Zimbabwean bills. Each keeps one in his wallet, brandishing it at opportune moments as evidence of inflation’s most extreme possible ramifications. “No self-respecting monetary economist goes around without a 100-trillion-dollar note,” Mr. Taylor says with a chuckle.

    Only Zimbabwe’s secretive central bank officials know the true figures, but dealers estimate that the regime printed roughly five million to seven million bills in the 100-trillion-dollar denomination. Based on the serial numbers and known supply of bills in the collector’s market, they believe only a few million were actually released.

    Mr. Templeton and Mr. Laties say their stock is genuine because it came in unopened bricks of thousands of bills. Others guard against the small number of counterfeit Zimbabwean bills rumored to be in the market by studying the watermark, signature and serial numbers that distinguish genuine bills.

    Most pristine bills are already in the hands of wholesalers or dealers, meaning merchants looking to stock up now are having a difficult time. Some traders suspect officials at Zimbabwe’s central bank are still selling surplus bills to middlemen, but no traders said they had direct access to the bank themselves.

    “For something that was printed in the millions, it’s hard to actually get your hands on,” says Andrew Ericson, an eBay currency merchant in Hawaii.

    One Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe official says that defunct notes aren’t being sold, though many remain stashed in its vaults and that some bank employees may have huge stores at home.

    Though serious collectors are only interested in uncirculated currency—for the same reasons that baseball card or action-figure enthusiasts will pay a premium for pieces in mint condition—the less pristine bills are getting a second act in Zimbabwe as souvenirs for foreign visitors.

    At a shopping center in Harare popular with tourists, Gamuchirai Kaparadza sells Zimbabwean bills alongside clay pots and soapstone carvings. He says the bills go for between $1 and $10, depending on a customer’s bartering skills. “The 100-trillion-dollar note sells like hot cakes,” says Mr. Kaparadza. “But it is also hard to get these days because I think more people are realizing they can make some bucks selling it.”

    A German tourist who failed to get the coveted 100-trillion note was happy to pay $5 for a 100-billion-dollar note instead. “It’s still huge,” she said.

    Mr. Kaparadza peddles his bicycle through Harare’s poor and working-class neighborhoods, going door-to-door trying to buy people’s defunct Zimbabwe dollars. Because the government never attempted to collect the bills or allowed people to exchange them, many still have huge stashes squirreled away at home.

    During one such excursion earlier this month, an elderly woman accused Mr. Kaparadza of trying to con her out of valuable currency. “You are a thief. President Mugabe says we will get our money!” she said before slamming the door in his face.

    Indeed, the 87-year old Mr. Mugabe has declared that the Zimbabwe dollar will soon return, but members of his awkward unity government are unconvinced. Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai told a farmer at a public rally last year that he should use the bricks of bank notes under his bed “to fertilize his fields.”
    —Peter Wonacott contributed to this article.

  79. Kettle1^2 says:

    Clot

    I cant wait to see the american version

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pictures-violent-and-media-blacked-out-greek-exhibition

    ……Much of the spending cuts would come from reducing wage costs in the public sector, cuts in operating expenses at state-owned enterprises, and reduced defense and health-care spending.

    You stand a good chance of getting your wish that the public employee’s and unions will do the heavy lifting.

  80. 4c says:

    That prices are heading back to the 90s is obvious. This is not a guess but follows from a simple comparison between the two eras. The only thing which looks better now is mortgage rates by about 1-2% the rest including taxes, utilities, income, retirement, health, commodities, national and international economies, etc are all worse.

  81. 4c says:

    three years ago the fed was able to intervene for bad or for good. Now even B is a afraid of doing a big move

  82. 4c says:

    Most of US is back in the 90s. It still hasn’t happened in NY. The fed managed to reignite the bubble but only for NY. There is a grave correction long due for this region.

  83. Dan says:

    A. West, I was expecting a neon Elvis in front of the place. Do you have a picture at night?

  84. 4c says:

    unfortunately prices are moving slowly. reinvestor above got it right. Sellers won’t budge easily. I am looking to buy but why should I if I gain $100-200K for a 2-3 year wait?

  85. A.West says:

    Hobo,
    Burning it down would certainly bring a financial return to the owner, assuming it’s insured. Nobody could rebuild that ugly, and it’s on a reasonably nice plot of land. There are a few wacko houses on Mountain Top Rd. As if they were designed by an architect right out of college who just flipped through “The Fountainhead” and was determined to build something radically different.

    Did you ever show the house I eventually bought? Subtract 800 from the prior house number, on the road once Tullo Farm, a mile down the valley.

  86. A.West says:

    4c,
    Why indeed. If you don’t already own, I think you still should be very choosy about buying. But looking doesn’t hurt.

  87. joyce says:

    Jamil,
    Do you consider Fox News mainstream media ?

  88. 4c says:

    no I rent. And my rent is low and not increasing. I am looking to buy and lately I often see a house i thought would never see sell for such a low price only to see a better house selling for lower. Yet those houses not only cost more than what they did ten years ago but carry such a high tax that make maintenance twice as much than ten years ago.

  89. joyce says:

    never mind just saw you post (59)

    you are an idiot & troll

  90. Al Mossberg says:

    The good news:
    I won my property tax appeal without going to court. Township took 100k off my assessment which should drop my property taxes by 2k annually. Ill also get part of my lawyers assessor fee back.

    The bad news:
    There is legislation going to be proposed for IRA/401k confiscation in the form of all or partial investment in US treasuries. All we need is a catalyst which could come in the form of a deflationary crash after QE2 ends in June. Waiting on a bill number but rest assured the legislation is ready to roll.

  91. Al Mossberg says:

    The good news:
    I won my property tax appeal without going to court. Township took 100k off my assessment which should drop my property taxes by 2k annually. Ill also get part of my lawyers assessor fee back.

    The bad news:
    There is legislation going to be proposed for IRA/401k c_nfiscation in the form of all or partial investment in US treasuries. All we need is a catalyst which could come in the form of a deflationary crash after QE2 ends in June. Waiting on a bill number but rest assured the legislation is ready to roll.

  92. Al Mossberg says:

    Why am I in moderation? I won my property tax appeal without going to court. Township took 100k off my assessment which should drop my property taxes by 2k annually. Ill also get part of my lawyers assessor fee back.

  93. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [69] dl

    That’s because there is so much commercial property in that area. Pollution is a big problem there, with runoff carrying wastes from the commercial sites.

    Amazingly, residential isn’t a problem for hard surface runoff; its the pesticides and fertilizers, as well as oils on roadways that are the big residential issue (except, of course for the cars rusting on blocks in that part of Bucks).

  94. The Original NJ Expat says:

    #67 -4c

    I’m sure we’ll eventually see a top-down rush to the exits for those with lots of equity in mil+ homes in blue ribbon towns, crushing every price point below. Those $25 & $35K tax bills a barely tolerable when bonuses are big and home values are rising. Reverse those two for any considerable length of time and throw a pinch of rising taxes on top and it won’t be pretty. Who knows, we may even be coining new terminology in RE like an “Asking War”.

    “This would destroy the market for a mil and up, lower those asking prices and further depress cheaper houses. When nytimes says it’s time to buy then you know it’s time not to buy.”

  95. The Original NJ Expat says:

    #74 -3b

    We’re already back to 90’s prices, and in some of your “better” towns (Of course Peapack-Gladstone is no Brig-On-Hack):

    Asking price:
    $1,290,000 5 Forest View Drive, Gladstone NJ 07934

    Sale History:
    10/07/2003 Sold $1,800,000

    06/27/1995 Sold $995,000

    111 Days on Trulia (with this realtor, anyway):

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3040593105-5-Forest-View-Dr-Gladstone-NJ-07934

    “Prices back to 90′s levels?? not far fetched at all.”

  96. A.West says:

    Expat, it’s crazy that this place sold for $1.8mn, and that was before bubble top.

  97. DL says:

    Comrade; We’re still planning to move to Doylestown. We just don’t plan on adding a deck. We’re now seeing houses with low 4 handles that are within walking distance to town (Doylestown Hunt) and north near the shopping centers.

  98. Glen says:

    Could anyone look up the info for MLS # 2847593 please? Would past tax history be available? Thanks

  99. njexpat (latest one to leave) says:

    98.DL says:
    May 11, 2011 at 3:43 pm
    Comrade; We’re still planning to move to Doylestown. We just don’t plan on adding a deck. We’re now seeing houses with low 4 handles that are within walking distance to town (Doylestown Hunt) and north near the shopping centers.

    I just did a Realtor.com search in Doylestown for 4 br @ $450k or less. I’m shocked at the number of nice homes on the market…sucks to be selling…great to be buying….unless you subcribe to the theory that it’s still falling. Hope your commute won’t be too bad

  100. Kettle1^2 says:

    The Original NJ Expat

    http://www.scribd.com/full/53186907?access_key=key-mslmxakh2pxkf1gm4ss

    Look at the first chart on page 2 and the first chart on page 3. The low end of the market seems to show the greatest response to changes in the 500K+ housing range. The middle price range distribution seem to hold relatively stable. if we see the 500K+ segment get wacked due to the pull back of jumbo loans or other reasons and the relation holds, then we can expect a proportional expansion in the 200K and below segment

  101. The Original NJ Expat says:

    #97

    Craziness is contagious. Same cul-de-sac:
    3/09/94 3 Forest View $940,000
    2/20/03 3 Forest View $1,775,000
    6/23/95 5 Forest View $995,000
    8/15/03 5 Forest View $1,800,000
    3/31/05 7 Forest View $1,775,000
    4/10/01 9 Forest View $1,449,400
    10/21/96 4 Forest View $1,400,000
    5/11/05 11 Forest View $1,575,000

    “Expat, it’s crazy that this place sold for $1.8mn, and that was before bubble top.”

  102. homeboken says:

    Hoboken Real Estate Bidding Wars are Back:

    http://hoboken411.com/archives/64229

    There is so much skewed logic in the above I don’t know where to start.

  103. Kettle1^2 says:

    A better term to use would be the “entry level” segment. 200k and below is relative on those charts since it is nominal.

  104. Kettle1^2 says:

    NJ expat,

    what was your old handle?

  105. 30 Year Realtor says:

    #103 – WOW! I wonder what he really meant to say? Article makes no sense and provides no evidence that bidding wars do indeed exist in the market. As an agent who has conducted countless highest & best offer situations for sellers, when it goes to highest & best the seller holds all the cards!

  106. JJ says:

    Hey awhile back around Christmas I saw this home in a very rich neighborhood, it was super super super ugly inside, was decorated in a 1980s jewish/asian style no basement and was only a three bedroom, but was on two acres in a rich rich neighborhood so I put in a low ball 599K offer and got rejected. It was listed at 999K. Something about they already cut price and you came in 40% off. They miss the concept of the low ball. It says it is in contract but not sold yet, how do you find out what it is in contract for on MLS? Just curious. I like to track my crazy offers.

    1 Birch Court
    Laurel Hollow, NY 11791
    Listing ID: 2317688

  107. Kettle1^2 says:

    this may have already been posted

    The new FHA and GSA jumbo limits
    http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/89751/20110511housinglimits.pdf

    it looks like NJ is seeing an average cut of 100K in the jumbo limit. Does the the high end market see a 100K drop in average price?

  108. A.West says:

    Kettle, if the jumbo is $625k, then one should expect a lot of sales in the 625/.8 = $781k or less price range at the upper end. Before, the high end would have been just over $900k, assuming 20% down payments. Given the down payment factor, the impact would be greater than $100k.

    But sellers won’t immediately cut their list of course. They will just have homes that don’t sell until they eventually capitulate to lower prices, in an attempt to find someone, anyone who can afford to buy their house.

  109. The Original NJ Expat says:

    #101 Ket

    Great charts!

    Chart #1 – Median Home Price/Median Household Income. In my mind, this tells the whole story, especially if you extend it back another couple decades. I could go on and on about this but way back when there wasn’t any place except Hawaii and San Fran where the ratio was above the low 4’s.

    The other charts you referenced, I am trying to get my head around them but I keep thinking about what I don’t know such as volume of sales (as opposed to percentage of sales) in each quarter for each segment and also whether I’m looking at apples vs. apples or apples vs. oranges. For example, $500K+ houses were 20% of sales recently and also 20% of sales in late ’04 and early ’05. Are these comparable houses, (I’m guessing not), but I also can’t decide whether it matters because, sadly, most people buy what someone else tells them they’re allowed to buy so how do we factor in tightness of credit, inflation and real income levels? My head is spinning, but the charts are great.

    My old handle was just “NJ ExPat”

  110. Happy Renter says:

    [107] Come on, fess up JJ … how badly do you miss that great deal in Laurel Hollow?

    “Some buyers ‘just keep missing great deals because they want to keep low-balling their prices,’ said Sheldon Neal, a Re/Max agent in Oradell.”

  111. Barbara says:

    Give that A Frame house to a couple of designers from Dwell and it could be a masterpiece. The problem is not the house, its the taste level of the owner (s).

  112. A.West says:

    Homeboken,
    If you really want to sell, a bidding war strategy is the best way to do it. Start with a low list price relative to realistic market value, and make sure you get maximum attention from potential buyers. Then you accept the highest offer that you think can close the deal. It’s a buyer’s market, and they determine the price a home sells for, so why not just get it over with? This only works well for commodity grade homes where a good number of potential likely buyers can see it within a few weeks rather than ones where it takes time to find a buyer with unique needs that match the house.

    This is basically the strategy we used to sell our house last year right before the government bonus money disappeared.

  113. A.West says:

    Barbara,
    You didn’t like the paper ball lantern lights?

  114. Kettle1^2 says:

    NJ Expat you can see the volume on the 2nd chart on page 1. The 1st chart on page 2 shows the % of the gross sales volume that each price segment covers.

    Sales volume
    200K 500K+
    3q00 20,213 2,407
    4q00 19,108 2,393
    1q01 13,490 2,455
    2q01 18,142 3,275
    3q01 15,609 3,759
    4q01 15,708 3,026
    1q02 13,270 2,860
    2q02 16,521 4,571
    3q02 12,667 5,351
    4q02 12,425 4,423
    1q03 9,896 3,947
    2q03 11,792 5,468
    3q03 10,787 7,232
    4q03 11,560 6,080
    1q04 8,872 5,066
    2q04 10,966 8,918
    3q04 15,405 3,882
    4q04 8,817 8,240
    1q05 8,198 6,838
    2q05 8,828 14,071
    3q05 6,827 14,106
    4q05 6,807 11,271
    1q06 5,267 8,687
    2q06 5,914 12,813
    3q06 4,548 11,787
    4q06 5,014 9,736
    1q07 4,293 8,045
    2q07 4,973 12,248
    3q07 3,991 10,584
    4q07 4,291 7,659
    1q08 3,332 5,685
    2q08 4,732 9,329
    3q08 4,234 8,467
    4q08 4,907 5,533
    1q09 4,172 3,257
    2q09 6,735 5,949
    3q09 6,537 7,116
    4q09 8,363 6,315
    1q10 7,617 2,430
    2q10 9,314 8,528
    3q10 5,735 5,759
    4q10 6,603 5,414

  115. Barbara says:

    114. A West
    those weren’t bad, its the kitchen designed by Caligula and knotty pine den designed by your kid toucher uncle juxtaposed with the bathroom designed by the imagination of Danielle Steel. It should be a bauhaus/danish mod vibe with some mix in the furniture.

  116. Kettle1^2 says:

    Expat

    apples vs. apples or apples vs. oranges. ….

    you may be right, grim, clot, or 30yr would have a better take on that then me.

  117. Barbara says:

    Anyone here have any experience with having a roof raised? I need info quick as I may be putting an offer together tonight/tomorrow. Its a tight budget. I need an approximate to raise and existing roof about 5 feet , shingle the outside, rough in plumbing and electrical. Plywood subfloor. No drywall or finish work for the interior. The space is about 1000 sq ft.

  118. homeboken says:

    A.West – 113, I agree with what you are saying, but the article makes the exact opposite conclusion, it states that Bidding Wars are the Buyer’s best friend.

    Also, your point is valid if a seller prices below market and the feeding frenzy then ensues. Take a look at the author of the articles listings and you will see that he is not exaclty pricing properties to move.

  119. JJ says:

    Well, I hated house, but it was an easy put in new appliances and paint type deal to turn into a rental. If I got a low low sale price in a non distress sale, I would be rewarded with cheap taxes. Since I did not want to actually live in house I did a crazy low ball. Trouble is you have to bid to get info. Even if a low ball. Still interested in seeing how off I am. Guess I have to wait a month or so till public info.

    Happy Renter says:
    May 11, 2011 at 4:45 pm

    [107] Come on, fess up JJ … how badly do you miss that great deal in Laurel Hollow?

    “Some buyers ‘just keep missing great deals because they want to keep low-balling their prices,’ said Sheldon Neal, a Re/Max agent in Oradell.”

  120. victor says:

    really like the community and the location but the house has so many issues including the underground oil tank which needs to be removed, any idea what could be the fair offer for that house ? Thanks
    http://www.trulia.com/property/1064611090-86-Lakewood-Dr-Denville-NJ-07834

  121. Warm weather here. Bring on the ultraviolence!!!

  122. Barbara says:

    Sigh, please revoke my NJRERE regular status, as of 15 minutes ago I am involved in a bidding war. Sure to lose, but still.

  123. Essex says:

    118. #$70-100k

  124. Barbara says:

    Essex,
    thanks. I just had a contractor who does this work in our area give me a 20k (remember, no finished work on the inside). *stressed*

  125. Barbara says:

    I forgot to say, using existing roof, adding side walls.

  126. Essex says:

    I dunno man…..I’d be very wary of cut rate structural improvements. just saying.
    Perhaps dormers are a better bet??

  127. Barbara says:

    Dormers are a maybe, but the pitch is pretty shallow overall.

  128. Libtard says:

    Barb…congrats on entering the bidding war. Don’t get emotionally attached.

  129. Barbara says:

    Lib, don’t know if you are still up. How long did it take to finish your GR house and what all did you have done? I’m trying to put together a timeline.

  130. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [118] barbara,

    Make sure that the insulation isn’t vermiculite, or that the outside shakes are not actually asbestos. Cost goes up dramatically in that event.

  131. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [98] DL

    If you have a reason to be in the area, Doylestown is nice. As for prices, I would hold off. I see nothing that is gonna cause them to go up. Further, consider that as prices plummet, what used to be decent suburbs start to become the Section 8 crowd.

    If you need to be in Doyles, rent. You won’t be priced out forever, and you can pull the ripcord if need be.

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