“Not in this decade”

From the APP:

Real estate rebound will require jobs, time

New Jersey real estate pros are reading tea leaves, searching for positive signs — anything remotely positive, really — that point to a rebound in the state’s tortured housing market.

They want to tell home buyers and sellers there is hope, so they point to trends ticking slightly upward: low mortgage rates that indicate it’s time to buy, employment rates showing signs of life, even Jersey Shore summer rentals that are ahead of last year’s pace.

But the cold, hard data of sales, inventory and foreclosures remain in free fall, leading analysts to predict that the rock bottom of the real estate crash — once widely expected to arrive late this year or the start of 2012 — now may not arrive until 2013.

“Broad-based, all indications are that prices will probably finally bottom out in 2012 or 2013,” said James W. Hughes, dean of the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University. “But then, we’re looking at a long period back.”

How long?

“Not in this decade,” Hughes said.

Much of the past week’s real estate market pessimism was spawned by a nationwide analysis by the Zillow website, which reported that home prices swooned at a rate not seen since 2008.

In New Jersey, the Zillow report showed, first-quarter median home prices fell 3.3 percent. During the past year, Garden State home prices have fallen a full 9 percent. That’s further and faster than our neighbors in New York (1.4 percent, 3.4 percent) and Pennsylvania (3 percent, 7.3 percent.)

Elsewhere, an Otteau Valuation Group report showed New Jersey median home prices falling twice as fast, 6.6 percent, in the first quarter of 2011.

Hughes said the first three months of 2011 represented a “double-dip,” with falling prices made to seem more steep by the artificial sales bump created by government tax incentives at the start of 2010.

This entry was posted in Economics, General, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

197 Responses to “Not in this decade”

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. grim says:

    From the Express Times:

    New Jersey ranks as fourth most expensive state in which to live

    New Jersey has long been known as one of the country’s most expensive states in which to live.

    A new national report, Out of Reach 2011, supports that notion with its finding that New Jersey is the fourth most expensive state in the nation in terms of the housing wage.

    The housing wage is the hourly wage a family must earn – working 40 hours a week, 52 weeks a year – to be able to afford rent and utilities in a safe and modest home in the private housing market, according to the report by the National Low Income Housing Coalition and the Housing and Community Development Network of New Jersey.

    The report gauges affordability by using the “widely accepted” measure that no more than 30 percent of a person’s income should be spent on housing, the report states.

    The fair market rent for a two-bedroom rental in New Jersey is $1,276, which means that a family must earn $51,044 annually. A minimum-wage worker would have to work 3.4 full-time jobs a week, or 135 hours, to afford a modest two-bedroom apartment.

    The report also finds that the typical renter in the state earns $15.82 per hour, well below the $24.54 hourly wage needed to afford a modest rental. An estimated 61 percent of New Jersey renters don’t earn enough to afford the state’s fair-market two-bedroom rental.

  3. Confused In NJ says:

    Nice to see the experts have finally figured out what the average resident has already known for the last 25 years.

  4. grim says:

    Not sure how you look at the state from an aggregate affordability perspective. You go from one extreme of affordability in the Northeast to the other in the South and West, with a smattering of insanely high cost areas along the way (as well as down the strip of sand on the east). I’m sure this kind picture exists in most other states as well, so maybe the comparison isn’t too far off.

    Whenever you see this kind of bifurcation (or wide range), finding an actual representative example of the median becomes difficult. There are plenty of submarkets in NJ where you simply can’t buy the median/average house, it just doesn’t exist. The same goes for median/average rents in these markets as well.

  5. Pat says:

    What were those factors in location, location, location?

    Commutability, Competition, and Conspiracy?

    I really can’t remember. Or were the “C” things for diamonds?

    It’s all fake anyway, right?

  6. Obviously, this guy has awakened and gotten a whiff of the stench of death.

    Embrace the oblivion.

  7. Barbara says:

    Not only will/are property taxes driving down prices in NJ, but even if that house with the 16,000k tax bill can be had at a poultry 350k, the buyers are not seeing a bargain, or even affordability when what should be going into equity is going to employ the local family running the show downtown and their in laws and lazy assed kids and loyal voters.

  8. seif says:

    hey Grim…i got your article re-posted on another well-known site:

    http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html

  9. Shore Guy says:

    Real-estate nightmare looms for retirees
    Should you stay put, downsize or get out completely?

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/keep-your-house-from-becoming-a-retirement-burden-2011-05-12

  10. Shore Guy says:

    Real-estate nightmare looms for retirees
    Should you stay put, downsize or get out completely?

    Five short years ago, many learned men and women warned Americans against thinking that rising home prices would eliminate or lessen the need for them to save for retirement. Institutions and advisers alike advised people against relying on the equity in their homes to finance part or even all of their consumption needs in retirement.

    Today, that’s no longer the case. In fact, we now have almost the opposite situation.

    snip

    http://www.marketwatch.com/Story/story/print?guid=C9E62CBC-7C0D-11E0-915A-00212804637C

  11. Shore Guy says:

    Interesting (from the Washington Post):

    snip

    John McCain in an Op ed this morning skewered the claim that the killing of Bin Laden vindicates torture. But just now, on the Senate floor, he uncorked a new broadside that is quite remarkable, taking direct aim at Bush apologists who are reviving this debate in order to claim Bin Laden’s death as part of the Bush legacy.

    McCain amplified his case, and called on former Bush attorney general Michael Mukasey — whose recent op ed claiming torture led to Bin Laden has been widely cited by the right — to retract his claims. McCain’s speech is worth quoting at length:

    “With so much misinformation being fed into such an essential public debate as this one, I asked the Director of Central Intelligence, Leon Panetta, for the facts. And I received the following information:

    “The trail to bin Laden did not begin with a disclosure from Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, who was waterboarded 183 times. We did not first learn from Khalid Sheikh Mohammed the real name of bin Laden’s courier, or his alias, Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti — the man who ultimately enabled us to find bin Laden. The first mention of the name Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti, as well as a description of him as an important member of Al-Qaeda, came from a detainee held in another country. The United States did not conduct this detainee’s interrogation, nor did we render him to that country for the purpose of interrogation. We did not learn Abu Ahmed’s real name or alias as a result of waterboarding or any ‘enhanced interrogation technique’ used on a detainee in U.S. custody. None of the three detainees who were waterboarded provided Abu Ahmed’s real name, his whereabouts, or an accurate description of his role in Al-Qaeda.

    “In fact, not only did the use of ‘enhanced interrogation techniques’ on Khalid Sheikh Mohammed not provide us with key leads on bin Laden’s courier, Abu Ahmed; it actually produced false and misleading information. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed specifically told his interrogators that Abu Ahmed had moved to Peshawar, got married, and ceased his role as an Al-Qaeda facilitator — which was not true, as we now know. All we learned about Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti through the use of waterboarding and other ‘enhanced interrogation techniques’ against Khalid Sheik Mohammed was the confirmation of the already known fact that the courier existed and used an alias.

    “I have sought further information from the staff of the Senate Intelligence Committee, and they confirm for me that, in fact, the best intelligence gained from a CIA detainee — information describing Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti’s real role in Al-Qaeda and his true relationship to Osama bin Laden — was obtained through standard, non-coercive means, not through any ‘enhanced interrogation technique.’

    “In short, it was not torture or cruel, inhuman, and degrading treatment of detainees that got us the major leads that ultimately enabled our intelligence community to find Osama bin Laden. I hope former Attorney General Mukasey will correct his misstatement. It’s important that he do so because we are again engaged in this important debate, with much at stake for America’s security and reputation. Each side should make its own case, but do so without making up its own facts.

    snip

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/john-mccain-to-bush-apologists-stop-lying-about-bin-laden-and-torture/2011/03/03/AF10AnzG_blog.htm

  12. NJ Toast says:

    Grim, congrats on the NYT article. Your blog has it’s core posse but obviously the reach goes well beyond that. The picture was terrific too. I remember my first house, I felt like I was on top of the world. Enjoy it.

    One of the things the APP article posted today mentions is the 15-35 yr olds as a catalyst for re-starting the housing market. How many 30-35 yr olds are really going to buy a home, especially in NJ. Given the costs of living in the Garden State, along with the fact that this group professionally I would think is especially prone to relocation.

    I don’t thing big pharma is done with head count reductions yet either and I would love to see a 5 yr projection on estimated job creation in NJ for positions paying $75k – $150k. I cannot imagine job creation at this salary range will be strong and I would be interested to know what industry these jobs will be in. Mid-size and large organizations can run on much lower head count and the # of new hires will be a small fraction of what it once was.

    Maybe housing prices will bottom in ’12 or ’13 but as many on this board have said, once they hit that point, they are going to stay put for a long time.

  13. Confused In NJ says:

    The first mention of the name Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti, as well as a description of him as an important member of Al-Qaeda, came from a detainee held in another country. The United States did not conduct this detainee’s interrogation, nor did we render him to that country for the purpose of interrogation.

    Seems like we should adopt this other countries interrogation methods which are much more effective.

  14. New Jersey had gone too far. They have worked hard wherever they are right now.

  15. gary says:

    In New Jersey, the Zillow report showed, first-quarter median home prices fell 3.3 percent. During the past year, Garden State home prices have fallen a full 9 percent. That’s further and faster than our neighbors in New York (1.4 percent, 3.4 percent) and Pennsylvania (3 percent, 7.3 percent.)

    Elsewhere, an Otteau Valuation Group report showed New Jersey median home prices falling twice as fast, 6.6 percent, in the first quarter of 2011.

    Any Questions?

  16. NJ Toast says:

    Marketwatch article claiming that housing prices will not crash uses ratio of rent / home prices as a proxy to make this claim.

    Rental demand is increasing but is this demand somewhat muted because some people are living w parents and not renting?

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/house-prices-wont-crash-key-ratio-suggest-2011-05-13

    BTW – anyone see that BOA is giving away 150 homes in the Chicago area?

  17. House Whine says:

    Explain how a 15 – 35 yr old will be able to handle mortgage payments, let alone a down-payment for a home purchase in NJ. Especially given the fact that their generation won’t have pensions, job stability, or affordable medical benefits. There will be some lucky ones, but for most of them I would say it’s not a done deal. Maybe with some help from their parents? It’s a gradual erosion of the middle-class. Good luck to them.

  18. Buyorrent says:

    Being a gainfully employed 33 yr old, with a full-time working spouse, I can tell you that even making twice the median family income, there is no way that I can responsibly afford a home in New Jersey. The only people my age that I know who have bought recently had MAJOR assistance from wealthy parents.

    The monthly nut on a 300K dollar house, which is the bottom of the barrel here in central jersey, seems rather daunting. With property taxes doubling every 6 or 7 years I don’t see it happening.

    But we continue to look for a deal, which we have not encountered. Everything we see are estate sales, which means a house that has not seen an update in 30 years, needs a roof, kitchen, floors, and new baths priced at peak to peak minus 20 percent valuation. Not even close to logical to purchase at those prices. I doubt one would ever get their money back on those renovations.

    So we continue to rent….

  19. Confused In NJ says:

    Interesting, Beheadings in Mexico, Guatamala, and now the Canary Islands? They may need to bring back the Headsman Axe as punishment for these crimes.

    http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/europe/05/15/spain.supermarket.beheading/index.html?hpt=T2

  20. JJ says:

    Men today live in a period of extended adolescence. They are childlike creatures playing x-box, paint ball and partying. They can’t even commit to a GF let alone marry and buy a house in a surburbs. Unless you are selling to single well educated high income girls between 27 and 35 I don’t see guys buying houses in the surburbs.

    Heck on Passover the LIRR was packed with single jewish sons aged 21-35 going to mommy and daddys house in LI for passover by themselves. Did not see anyone with a wife or kids let alone a good shave.

    Homes are getting back to 2002 prices soon. Lets compare.

    A ten year muni in 2002 paid 4%.

    A 500K 2002 home is now worth 500K. After ten years of paying 10K taxes, 20K to close, a good 50K in maint and around 190K in interest payment on mortagage. Grand total. You are 26oK in the hole if you sold for 500K. Yes you lived 10 years rent free. But you could have lived at Mommys house rent free or split a rent stablized apartment with friends.

    The Muni is paying you back your whole 500K in 2012. Plus you have 200K in tax free interest.

    Sadly stocks used to pay 10% a year and people bought homes as that was not enough as homes paid 20% annually. Now a home is beaten to death by a lousy 4% muni as an investment. AND homes are still overpriced.

    House Whine says:
    May 16, 2011 at 9:04 am

    Explain how a 15 – 35 yr old will be able to handle mortgage payments, let alone a down-payment for a home purchase in NJ. Especially given the fact that their generation won’t have pensions, job stability, or affordable medical benefits. There will be some lucky ones, but for most of them I would say it’s not a done deal. Maybe with some help from their parents? It’s a gradual erosion of the middle-class. Good luck to them.

  21. JJ says:

    Easy, become a reality TV star or an overnight Utube sensation.

    House Whine says:

    Explain how a 15 – 35 yr old will be able to handle mortgage payments, let alone a down-payment for a home purchase in NJ. Especially given the fact that their generation won’t have pensions, job stability, or affordable medical benefits. There will be some lucky ones, but for most of them I would say it’s not a done deal. Maybe with some help from their parents? It’s a gradual erosion of the middle-class. Good luck to them.

  22. ditto says:

    If I didn’t have kids I’d carry on renting in the city. A two income couple has an easy time, especially if they land a rent stabilized apartment. However, there seems to be no-end of people getting major assistance in downpayment from their parents in the up to 35 age group. Though they do not earn more than counterparts not having parental help, they can put the parents’ money as the 20% down and get the mortgage. Those not having that sort of help are derided for “not being able to afford” a house if they go the FHA route, with people foaming at the mouth about taxpayer subsidies etc.

  23. Libtard in the City says:

    Interesting interview of Steve Wynn on Bloomberg last night. Especially interesting is how he considers his company to now be a Chinese company as well as his comments on the eroding middle class towards the end of the short interview. In my humble opinion, Steve Wynn is a total class act. D0nald Trump couldn’t shine Steve Wynn’s shoes.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/video/69773442/

  24. Dan says:

    JJ,

    You’re using LIRR commuters on Passover Eve as your anecdote? Just how many families with kids do you expect to go round-trip on a train back and forth to the city? How many families with kids who can already afford to live in Manhattan wouldn’t already own a car anyhow to go back and forth? Pretty lousy selection bias if you ask me…..

  25. Dan says:

    Steve Wynn the American Dream trading hotel rooms and house odds for Chinese made products.

  26. Juice Box says:

    # 22 – JJ re: “Unless you are selling to single well educated high income girls between 27 and 35 I don’t see guys buying houses in the surburbs. ”

    Seems to me the new American dream for Men is a smart, good looking, funny, rich girl.

    From USA today.

    Only 66.8% of American men had a job last year. That was the lowest level that has ever been recorded in all of U.S. history. USA TODAY analyzed employment numbers and 2010 Census data to see how the ratio of workers to non-workers has changed.

    Other key findings:

    •Men leave. Working-age men have been dropping out of the labor force for decades. The disappearance quickened when construction and manufacturing jobs vanished in the recession from December 2007 through June 2009. Until the 1960s, more than 80% of men worked.

    •Women stay. The trend of women getting jobs offset the loss of working men until the late 1990s. The share of women holding jobs rose from 36% in 1960 to 57% in 1995, then leveled off. The rate was 56% in 2010.

    http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/employment/2011-04-13-more-americans-leave-labor-force.htm

  27. Libtard in the City says:

    I struggle to find any family among my peers who have even put a dent in their 30-year mortgages, and most (if not all) of them got varying assistance with their home purchase. It absolutely sickens me to pull up their mortgage data on the various online databases and see how many refinances and HELOCs they all have. Many of my friends actually purchased in the late 90’s and early 2000’s and made a hefty return on their original homes.

    There is some truth to what JJ has noticed. They all have iPhones, iPads, drive fancy cars and eat out way too often. They sneer at Captain Cheapo when he breaks out a coupon when we go out to eat together, even when I share the discount with them. Additionally, they all have two or three kids. I shutter to think of how much money they have wasted on X-boxes and Karate lessons and haven’t saved a shiny penny towards their kids 529s.

    Buyorrent (20), keep on saving and renting. You will be in a fantastic position to purchase a home ‘if’ the government finally stops backstopping those who provide Suze Orman with enough material to make Tolstoy blush. If the government does not change course, then all of us, except for the top 1% or so who have the means to relocate will all be in the same boat anyhow.

    Jamil,
    Have you sent your contribution in to Peter King yet?

  28. Libtard in the City says:

    Dan,

    Wynn treats his employees incredibly well. He also says it like it is. I respect people who don’t BS.

  29. 3b says:

    #24 I do not see parents helping put with down payments, when so many do not help out with college. Although it may be cheaper to throw the kid 10 grad to wards the house than pay for college.

  30. ditto says:

    probably because the kids can borrow money relatively cheaply to fund college, but trying to borrow for a downpayment – probably impossible nowadays but you used to be able to do it with a second mortgage

  31. Xroads says:

    #20 buyorrent

    Just curious have you encountered the ” you better hurry and buy before prices take off” theory? It seems to me there are a lot of people giving this.

  32. Kettle1^2 says:

    Ranger,

    Not that this really matters in a mark-to-fantasy world, but….

    (Reuters) – The United States is expected to reach the legal limit on its debt later on Monday and will start dipping into federal retirement funds to give the country more room to borrow, a Treasury official said.

    The Honorable Harry Reid
    Democratic Leader
    United States Senate
    Washington, DC 20510

    Dear Mr. Leader:
    I am writing to notify you, as required under 5 U.S.C. § 8348(l)(2), of my determination that, by reason of the statutory debt limit, I will be unable to invest fully the portion of the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund (“CSRDF”) not immediately required to pay beneficiaries. For purposes of this statute, I have determined that a “debt issuance suspension period” will begin today, May 16, 2011, and last until August 2, 2011, when the Department of the Treasury projects that the borrowing authority of the United States will be exhausted. During this “debt issuance suspension period,” the Treasury Department will suspend additional investments of amounts credited to, and redeem a portion of the investments held by, the CSRDF, as authorized by law.
    In addition, I am notifying you, as required under 5 U.S.C. § 8438(h)(2), of my determination that, by reason of the statutory debt limit, I will be unable to invest fully the Government Securities Investment Fund (“G Fund”) of the Federal Employees’ Retirement System in interest-bearing securities of the United States, beginning today, May 16, 2011. The statute governing G Fund investments expressly authorizes the Secretary of the Treasury to suspend investment of the G Fund to avoid breaching the statutory debt limit. Each of these actions has been taken in the past by my predecessors during previous debt limit impasses. By law, the CSRDF and G Funds will be made whole once the debt limit is increased. Federal retirees and employees will be unaffected by these actions.
    I have written to Congress on previous occasions regarding the importance of timely action to increase the debt limit in order to protect the full faith and credit of the United States and avoid catastrophic economic consequences for citizens. I again urge Congress to act to increase the statutory debt limit as soon as possible.
    Sincerely,
    Timothy F. Geithner

    http://www.treasury.gov/connect/blog/Documents/20110516Letter%20to%20Congress.pdf

  33. Juice Box says:

    re # 34 – I am so glad we have those SS Trust funds to fall back on.

  34. Kettle1^2 says:

    Juice,

    It could very well be that i am messing up the numbers,but it appears that we actually broke the debt ceiling last week. Zerohedge reported the same thing as of last week.

  35. Juice Box says:

    Kettle1, the ceiling is only becoming the new floor.

    “We don’t have a trillion-dollar debt because we haven’t taxed enough; we have a trillion-dollar debt because we spend too much” -Ronald Reagan

  36. Kettle1^2 says:

    Juice,

    Next up, 401Ks forced into treasuries for the SAFETY of the public.

  37. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Bondi: Don’t cut homeowners’ mortgage principal
    http://seekingalpha.com/news-article/1089471-bondi-don-t-cut-homeowners-mortgage-principal

    May 16–THE ATTORNEY GENERAL OF FLORIDA — a state where almost half of all mortgaged homes are underwater — opposes efforts that would force the nation’s five largest mortgage servicers to reduce the principal on loans owed by struggling U.S. homeowners.

    Pushing lenders to forgive part of their mortgage holders’ debt could encourage even responsible homeowners to stop making payments on their loans, in the hope they can eventually get their bank to erase part of their mortgage, Bondi wrote in a recent letter to the head of the working group.

    “Some homeowners may simply default on their loan and use the States’ agreement to obtain a principal reduction — whether or not they actually made an effort to maintain their mortgage,” wrote Bondi, who serves on the negotiating group’s executive board.

    She called it a potential “moral hazard” that “rewards those who simply choose not to pay their mortgage — because they can simply take advantage of lenders’ obligation to honor virtually automatic principal write-downs.”

    Somebody figured it out.

  38. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Shoppers feel bite of higher food costs
    http://seekingalpha.com/news-article/1089301-shoppers-feel-bite-of-higher-food-costs

    Nine out of 10 Americans say they are paying more for groceries now than they were a year ago, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll. Ninety-one percent of those surveyed said they were spending more on groceries now than last year. That was up from 87 percent in April. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports food prices are up by 3.2 percent for the 12-month period ending in April while gasoline prices soared by 33 percent.

    Barry Bluestone, dean of the School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs at Northeastern University, said despite the Herald survey results, it’s clear that food prices in general are rising. The factors fueling the record high prices are a combination of bad weather in food producing regions, soaring transportation costs and global demand for food.

    “People are worried that their paychecks are not going as far as they did six months or a year ago,” he said. “Consumers are hurting from a combination of sticker shock at the pumps and supermarkets. It’s a race between rising prices and slower growing wages.”

    No sh*t Sherlock.

  39. Juice Box says:

    re # 39 – There is already allot of momentum with the Strategic Defaulters.

    Growing number of consumers pay credit card debt before mortgage

    A significant number of Americans are now willing to lose their house to save the stuff that’s in it.

    That kitchen-table calculus provides a window into the deep-seated changes in consumer psyche wrought by the financial crisis. Traditionally, home loans have perched at the top of the payment hierarchy as families have strived to ensure that a roof stayed over their heads. But as Americans unload more than $100 billion in debt leftover from the economic boom, many households face a daunting question: What to pay off first?

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/growing-number-of-consumers-pay-credit-card-debt-before-mortgage/2011/05/02/AFN5OV2G_story.html?wprss=rss_homepage

  40. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Builder Confidence Unchanged in May
    http://www.nahb.org/news_details.aspx?sectionID=134&newsID=12655

    May 16, 2011 – Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes held unchanged at the low level of 16 in May, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. The index has now remained at this level for six out of the past seven months.

    “Builder confidence has hardly budged over the past six months as persistent concerns regarding competition from distressed property sales, lack of production credit, inaccurate appraisals, and proposals to reduce government support of housing have continued to cloud the outlook,” said NAHB Chairman Bob Nielsen, a home builder from Reno, Nev. “In addition, many builders in this month’s survey cited high gas prices as a further contributor to consumer anxiety and reluctance to go forward with a home purchase.”

    “The HMI component index measuring traffic of prospective buyers increased by one point for the second time this year as prospective buyers show growing interest but remain extremely hesitant due to a number of factors,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Asked to identify reasons that potential customers are holding back at this time, 90 percent of builders surveyed said clients are concerned about being able to sell their existing home at a favorable price, while 73 percent said consumers think it will be difficult for them to get financing. Clearly, access to credit for both builders and buyers remains a considerable obstacle to the revival of the new-homes market.”

    Not to worry NE doing fine.

    “Regionally, the HMI results were mixed, with the Northeast posting a 5-point decline to 15, the Midwest posting no change at 14, the South posting a one-point gain to 16, and the West posting a two-point decline to 16.”

  41. JJ says:

    “Builder Confidence” is that like “Baked Alaska”?

  42. Buyorrent says:

    #33 XRoads

    Yes. I have gotten into several arguments with Realtors about that. They love to wanr me that rates will be going up soon, so I better get in now!

    I am also not using a buyer’s agent and a lot of the realtors get pissed when I turn them down to show me some homes. The last thing I need is two realtors, instead of just one, trying to talk me into a bad deal.

  43. JJ says:

    God said the Jews are the chosen ones. Who am I to go against God.

    Dan says:
    May 16, 2011 at 9:49 am

    JJ,

    You’re using LIRR commuters on Passover Eve as your anecdote? Just how many families with kids do you expect to go round-trip on a train back and forth to the city? How many families with kids who can already afford to live in Manhattan wouldn’t already own a car anyhow to go back and forth? Pretty lousy selection bias if you ask me…..

  44. Shore Guy says:

    Speaking of eating out too much:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/georgianna-donadio-msc-phd/mediterranean-diet_b_859184.html

    In Annia Ciezaldo’s April 1st article in the “New York Times Magazine,” she asks, “Does the Mediterranean Diet even exist?” She suggests that since half of Spain, Portugal and Italy’s populations are overweight — with Lebanon rapidly following suit — then, contrary to popular belief, the Mediterranean people now have the worst diets in Europe.

    She states that the Greeks “are the fattest: about 75 percent of the Greek population is overweight.” From Ciezaldo’s perspective, the Mediterranean Diet research, which spanned over 50 years, was in fact — flawed.

  45. Mikeinwaiting says:

    JJ 43 More like a Steaming Turd.

  46. Shore Guy says:

    ““Baked Alaska”?”

    Then there is Sara Palin: half-baked Alaska

  47. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Shore definitely not a steaming turd though.

  48. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore 46

    When the average person eats the same approximate diet that is fed to feedlot cattle, what do you expect to happen.

  49. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Anyone free for lunch Friday Gary & I were planning to go. NJ location we are both pretty flexible on where. Thursday, Wednesday should work also the unemployed have that luxury.

  50. Kettle1^2 says:

    Juice 35

    About that SS trust fund / lockbox…..


    The open group unfunded obligation over the 75-year projection period has increased from $5.4 trillion (present discounted value as of January 1, 2010) to $6.5 trillion (present discounted value as of January 1, 2011)….

    For the combined OASDI Trust Funds to remain solvent, the payroll tax rate could be increased an immediate and permanent 2.15%, (or) scheduled benefits could be reduced by an immediate and permanent 13.8%…….

    http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2011/II_D_project.html

  51. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Fcuk it all Clot come on out, you, Gary & I should work out well…………

  52. A.West says:

    Kettle, Shore,
    Check out any of Gary Taubes’ work that covers how government studies of diet have been conducted. It’s even worse than the government’s mismanagement of banking and finance. Bureaucrats fund most of the research, and they decided long ago what the conclusions were supposed to be, based on anything but objective science. And anyone who disputes government nutrition myths gets outcast. Now after 30-40 years of bad advice, and disastrous results the tide is only starting to turn.

  53. me@my.other.job says:

    MIW, 51

    How about Wednesday? The still_lookings would be happy to host late lunch at our joint… (and no, it’s not a painting party!)

    sl

  54. Al Mossberg says:

    Looks like Geithner is going to tap into Federal employee retirement pensions for the next 8 weeks. Coming to your retirement soon. Bring the doom.

  55. me@my.other.job says:

    fair warning…

    I (stupidly) attempted to remove poison ivy from the yard…. I *still* look like a leper.

    sl

  56. Al Mossberg says:

    Well if I liquidate my IRA this year the tax burden would be horrendous. I have to make it until next year where I stand a better chance. Decisions. Decisions.

  57. Juice Box says:

    re #58 – re: Poision Ivy – If you have not done so run out to CVS and get Zanfel, it is works by dissolving the Urushiol that you may have remaining on your skin.

    http://www.cvs.com/CVSApp/catalog/shop_product_detail.jsp?filterBy=&skuId=184471&productId=184471&navAction=jump&navCount=3

  58. gary says:

    I’m up for Wednesday, Friday, a gathering at the still_lookings, whatever. Someone just email and let me know where and when.

  59. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Sl I’m in.

  60. Juice Box says:

    re # 59 – Al there is 18 trillion out there in US Retirement Accounts. We could pay off the entire deficit. Only problem is it is not cash but lots of paper that really cannot be liquidated without crashing all markets.

    The Treasury only needs to borrow 10% per year so just keep contributing and pray you can beat inflation.

  61. NJGator says:

    Since there’s an expert on everything posting on this blog, am wondering if someone can recommend a good attorney that deals with special ed issues. We have a friend with a classified elementary school aged child who was recently told by their public school disctrict that the child is not welcomed back to PUBLIC school unless the child is medicated. Child has now been out of school for a week. They need to lawyer up to find out what their options are. If someone here knows of a good attorney, please let me know and I will provide an email address to contact me. Thanks.

  62. Al Mossberg says:

    63.

    Juice,

    No way am I contributing to that nonsense. I havent for years. There is no way to predict what tax rates will be when I am 59. Now if you are in a 401k you are trapped unless you switch jobs. Those with IRA’s can get out and thats exactly what I have planned. The tax planning for that event is tricky at best.

  63. Juice Box says:

    re # 65 – Al Death and Taxes. If they cannot get you coming they will get you going.

  64. mikey (54)-

    Probably not going anywhere this week. Daughter has state tournament lacrosse, and son picked up a concussion yesterday in the State Cup final when this idiot kid on the other team football-tackled him from behind and kicked him in the head for good measure. Were these guys 18 y/o, I would’ve called 911 and brought assault charges.

  65. west (55)-

    The food pyramid is a diet that is absolutely guaranteed to make you sick and stupid. It both creates millions of insulin-related problems in the population and creates massive lifetime revenue streams for food Nazis like ADM and other agribusiness megaliths.

  66. Sarah says:

    I saw the NYT article on Saturday and started reading your blog from the beginning of the archives. Fantastic! Your information is invaluable and I think your explanation of all data is simple, clear, and concise. I teach math and I appreciate the accesibility of the data presented here. Congratulations on your new home and the NYT article.

  67. me (58)-

    Q: What did the leper say to the other leper?
    A: Hey, can you lend me a hand?

    Q: How do you make a skeleton?
    A: Put a leper in a wind tunnel.

    Q: How do you make leper sausage?
    A: Put a sock at the end of the wind tunnel?

    Q: What did the leper captain say to his crew?
    A: All hands on deck!

  68. sarah (69)-

    You seem far too stable to be posting here.

  69. Perhaps I will temper my grain alcohol with a little of this high fructose corn syrup…

  70. JJ says:

    So neighbor died, this being Long Island I never met her. Also did not know she died. But she is two houses away. Anyhow kids listed home cheap, took first offer four hours later at 40K below asking.

    Get this, I called on it to rent and a builder called and we both would have beat offer. Offer is not yet in contract so it can be busted. Kids said a nice young couple is buying who plan on raising a family there so they are not busting an offer for a few grand more as they would rather have a nice family then some builder or investor.

    There is a santa clause. There really is. Kids got it I say for around 20% below Market.

  71. Libtard in the City says:

    I thought Sarah was a BOT until she mentioned Grim’s new house and her name wasn’t highlighted in blue.

  72. It’s an f-ed up world when normal people stick out like a sore thumb.

  73. Watch Sarah’s handle change to Natural Male Potency now…

  74. scribe says:

    I had poison ivy repeatedly as a kid. All the houses in the neighborhood were new – lots just cleared for the first houses.

    You have my sympathies. It’s awful.

  75. me@my.other.job says:

    juice, 60

    Been there, done that (Zanfel.) Meh. Helped the itch for 4 hrs. Rash still spread. Have washed linens, clothes, etc.

    My “other job” is at an allergist’s office. He looked at it today. Too late for prednisone. other pop up rash sites are “auto-sensitization” not new/spread exposure. steroid creams are so so at best even the high-potency ones.

    Oh well.

    sl

  76. Mikeinwaiting says:

    SL sent Gary your address.

  77. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Clot more grain alcohol, always a show stopper.

  78. It’s my heart that I’m trying to stop.

  79. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Welcome Sarah.

  80. Mikeinwaiting says:

    I tried just got a big headache.

  81. me@my.other.job says:

    What do you call a guy with no arms/no legs in the ocean? Bob.

    ” ” ” ” ” with no arms/legs in a ditch? Doug.
    ” ” ” with no arms or legs hanging on your wall? Art.
    ” ” ” a girl with no arms and one leg? Ilene.
    ” ” ” an Asian girl with no arms and one leg? Irene.
    A no arm, no leg guy who comes once a month? Bill.
    A leprosy riddled guy in your whirlpool? Stew.

    Yep. I know. Don’t give up your day job :)

    sl

  82. My money is on the 16 y/o to wipe the floor with Bachmann, who is probably a certifiable retard.

    Teen who challenged Bachmann to Constitution showdown is running for class president

    By Liz Goodwin

    “When 16-year-old Amy Myers launched her campaign to be class president at Cherry Hill East High School in New Jersey, the boys in her sophomore class began teasing her. And that crash course in how aspiring female leaders get judged on the basis of gender led, in a roundabout way, to Myers’ challenge to debate Minnesota GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann on the Constitution.

    “Your slogan for president should be that you’re not a witch,” Myers’ male detractors said, referencing the much-mocked campaign stance of ex-Delaware Senate candidate Christine O’Donnell, who decided to confront her years-old statements about Wicca head-on in her first TV ad. The boys told Myers she just wanted to be “another girl politician” like O’Donnell and former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, whom the boys (and pretty much every late-night comedian) often made fun of.

    “And I just said, ‘oh great,'” recalls Myers.

    Myers was angry that many of the most visible female politicians were seen as fodder for jokes and ridicule, which made her peers think it was ok to mock her political aspirations, too. She singled out Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) after her father noticed the congresswoman had incorrectly stated the Revolutionary War Battles of Lexington and Concord happened in New Hampshire. (She told a group of conservatives in Manchester in March: “You’re the state where the shot was heard around the world in Lexington and Concord.”) In January, Myers watched agasp as Bachmann said America’s founding fathers “worked tirelessly until slavery was no more in the United States.”

    “We covered the presidents, and we’re currently at Jackson,” Myers says. She says that though John Adams (and his son John Quincy Adams, who was not a founding father) objected to slavery, the other founding fathers did own slaves. They were all dead before slavery was officially abolished in 1865, during the Civil War.

    She decided that Bachmann’s inaccurate historical statements were irresponsible, since they reflected badly on women everywhere, and particularly on Myers herself. (We at The Lookout would like to point out that politicians of both genders frequently say stupid things; you can consult our sister blog The Ticket for proof.) The forceful letter Myers ended up writing to Bachmann, challenging her to a showdown over the Constitution and civics generally, quickly went viral on political blogs. Many Yahoo! commenters suggested that all politicians be forced to take the challenge before being allowed to take office.

    As the letter picked up national attention, Myers’ campaign to be class president also started to gather steam. And she finally feels she is getting respect from the boys who teased her.

    “The big joke in school is: Want to hear a funny joke? Haha, women’s rights,” says Myers. “Also the boys will tell you, ‘Oh go make me a sandwich,’ when you leave the table. That’s what they’re all like–it’s awful!

    But ever since this happened everyone’s been cheering me on, and now everyone’s so supportive. And I was surprised at how quickly everyone came to the realization that I am serious about politics,” she says.

    When asked about female politicians she admires, Myers lists Abigail Adams, Sandra Day O’Connor, Margaret Thatcher, and Eleanor Roosevelt. But when we asked her about current officer-holders, she paused. “I’m trying to think,” she says. “Generally the people I admire, most of them are deceased or they are retired from office,” she concluded.

    She says that even though some people online have accused her of being a “Communist” for her criticism of Bachmann, she characterizes her own politics as independent and thinks of herself as a “split-ticket” kind of voter–once she’s old enough to vote, that is.

    Myers still hasn’t received a response from Bachmann, but says she’s ready to make good on the debate challenge at a time and venue of the congresswoman’s choosing. A request for comment from Bachmann’s spokesman has gone unanswered.”

    http://tinyurl.com/3zzbtrs

  83. me (84)-

    I like the leper-in-a-whirlpool one. Hadn’t heard that one before.

    BTW, you can’t say “don’t give up your day job” to someone who doesn’t have one.

  84. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Greece: Last Exit To Nowhere?
    Political Economy | Edward Hugh | 15 May 2011 19:30
    http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/05/greece-last-exit-to-nowhere.html

    The present situation is unworkable, not only because the accumulated debts are unpayable by Greece alone, but also because the tiny size of Greek manufacturing industry and the lack of international competitiveness of the Greek economy make an export lead growth process with the present state of relative prices virtually impossible. There are solutions to both these problems remaining within the Euro structure and without default – issuing Eurobonds to accept part of the Greek debt and enforcing a substantial internal devaluation to restore external competitiveness – but since the adoption of these two strategies is virtually unthinkable in the present situation, then we are likely to find ourselves with some kind of Greek default, and given that the programme as it stands isn’t working (this is where the situation so resembles pre-default Argentina as the extent of the fiscal correction means the contraction feeds on itself given that exports cannot expand fast enough), it would be advisable to accompany this default with some sort of devaluation.

    Put another way, if the strongest argument against going back to the Drachma always was that this would imply default, now that default is coming, why not allow Greece to devalue? As Krugman says, the issue isn’t whether Greece would openly decide to exit the euro, the issue is what happens if the markets force this solution on Greek and European leaders? Given the programme isn’t working, the likelihood of this event occurring in the next 2 or 3 years is far from being negligible, so why not be proactive rather than always being reactive? What matters is whether Greece becomes Turkey (oh what a historical irony) or Argentina. If the powers that be can agree on an ordered restructuring of Greek debt, and a controlled exit from the Eurozone, then Greece has some possibilities of turning the situation round. If exit is forced on Greece in order to escape the clutches of both the EU and the IMF then the move will be, as I suggest in my title, simply the last exit to nowhere. The tragi-comic events surrounding the fate of IMF Director General Dominique Strauss Kahn may well mean that we are about to see significant changes in that organisation. It is to be hoped that, if this is the case, such changes will also involve a rethink of the IMF’s role in Europe’s crisis, and in particular of the objectives and means of implementation of the Greek programme, with the Fund moving towards a less-eurocentric and more balanced position, one which would be in the collective interest of the community of citizens of the wide variety of countries the institution represents.

  85. Kettle1^2 says:

    SL

    you have mail

  86. Q: What is the theme song of leprosy?
    A: “Put Your Head on My Shoulder”

  87. Libtard in the City says:

    The poison ivy savior for me is Elocon. It still takes a weak to clear it uo, but it doesn’t spread and this stuff stops the itch dead in it’s tracks. Good to take an antihistamine (Benadryl) simultaneously. Trust me, I am madly allergic. I even got poison ivy on my honeymoon in Hawaii.

    As for removing it. Best bet is good old Round Up. We had tons of it in our backyard in Montclair. Every Spring, simply spray the plants as they come up. They will wither and die and after two or three years, they don’t come back. It’s way way way cheaper and probably more effective than hiring a professional.

  88. Libtard in the City says:

    A week that is….so weak.

  89. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Poison Ivy , never had it although I know I have gone through it in the woods, just figured I got lucky or maybe immune, is that possible?

  90. Libtard in the City says:

    mike…During my childhood, I used to be the designated camper to get the balls when it rolled into the ivy. I used to be immune to it. Around my twenties, my immunity turned a 180 and now I get it by looking at it.

  91. me@my.other.job says:

    miw you may not be sensitive/allergic to it… not everyone is… I am not as lucky.

    F*cking hate the shit and attempt to send as much of it as I can to “poison ivy heaven.” Retribution’s a bitch, I guess.

    sl

  92. Libtard in the City says:

    When sending it to heaven, what ever you do, don’t burn it. Ingest ivy and it comes out everywhere. Trust me on this one.

  93. What did the poison ivy sufferer say to the leper?

  94. me@my.other.job says:

    Gary, I’m at work – email me for my address or do you still have it?

    Everyone else. RSVP if you can – I’ll probably make mesquite smoked ribs and corn.. nothing fancy so don’t get too excited. Vegetarians, email me so I can add some non-meat stuff.

    I’m at my ‘real’ job til 1am on Tues so, you’ll forgive me if my usually *cough, cough* bubbly personality is on Vacay. :)

    sl

  95. me@my.other.job says:

    Lib, 90

    Thanks! The reason I didn’t bother with spray is that I didn’t know the last part — after 3 yrs or so it stops coming back — THIS changes my mind about it. I will try it now.

    sl

  96. gary says:

    me@my.other.job,

    (insert evil voice) I know where you live! lol!

    I emailed you anyway. :)

  97. Libtard in the City says:

    Yup…It kind of sucks that it takes a few years, but once you spray that round up on it, the plants whither die and almost seem to evaporate in about a week or so. I think eventually, the roots get poisoned after multiple years of application. I never tried it on the climbing vines though. Only the stand alone plants.

  98. Tom Burger says:

    It’s a tragedy that our own government caused both the real-estate bubble and crash by legislating who can buy a house. Left to free market forces, NONE of this would have ever happened…that said, It is very difficult to assess New Jersey real estate market with a broad brush… NJ likely has more local markets and sub-markets than any other state in the nation.
    Yes, we are clearly over taxed and that has to change, but people still want to live here, despite the many problems we have and the high cost of living.
    I think that homes on the modest end of the home price scale are poised to do well, even in the short term. As the appetite for “McMansions” has finally waned, my sense is that there could even be some upward pressure on more modest price homes in decent areas of the state in the next few years. Unfortunately, if you have a “McMansion” you are likely looking at many years for any type of recovery.
    Bottom line is that all home prices were much too high in NJ in mid-2000’s – and were brought about mainly by the demand fueled by Congressional mandated changes to mortgage lending standards. In addition to millions buying homes they could not afford, you had the markets speculators’ trying to cash in on what was believed to perpetual double -digit growth in the housing in NJ and elsewhere. In addition to the general economic decline, we are now witnessing the result of all the foreclosures and the ripple economic effects.
    What happened in housing is symptomatic of the Wall Street greed culture that everyone unwittingly bought into…housing became just another hyped – leveraged asset to make and “killing on” and then sell. We all over bought and over sold…and this is the tragic result…think about that the next time you vote.

  99. Tom Burger says:

    apologies for some of the grammar/missing words in my post – I think you will get the point

  100. Shore Guy says:

    “Fcuk it all Clot come on out”

    Rosie, come out tonight.

  101. Shore Guy says:

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42996971/ns/travel-news/

    Southwest tells woman, mother they are ‘too fat to fly’

  102. Shore Guy says:

    What were the odds this guy was ever going to file a financial-disclosure form?

    http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/05/16/6653781-trump-not-running-for-president

  103. Trump has two business plays:

    1. Selling his name.
    2. Selling his name to ventures that fail.

    Pretty sure his counsel told him that we can’t be renamed Trump States of America. He also probably figured out the country’s been insolvent for years.

    Beyond that, what does such a huckster have to offer?

  104. Confused In NJ says:

    Now that Trump & Huckabee have dropped out of the race, Seinfeld’s “Kramer” will probably run. That ought to scare the Chinese.

  105. Besides, I’ve already promised my vote to Mr. Drysdale from the Beverly Hillbillies.

  106. shore (104)-

    Methinks Southwest should rename their “Customers of Size Policy” to “Fat White Trash Not Allowed”.

  107. NJ Toast says:

    SL – there are some stronger products than roundup to kill the ivy. Depot or Lowes will have. And you know that the oils in the root systems can still cause the itch.

    Capt’n Cheap – when I lived in the Garden State, I had a guy tell me I was not driving the correct car given my address. For your friends with the fancy cars & other junk, debt makes a terrible pillow, debt free on the other hand makes for a great nights rest.

  108. Libtard in the City says:

    Me thinks Obama is going to get reelected. I wonder if McCain is thinking about running again?

  109. Libtard in the City says:

    NJ TOAST:

    All my friends laugh when I pull up in my first car (my 95 Civic). It gives me great pleasure to share with them my cost per day for owning the vehicle compared to their Acura’s, Volvo’s, Mini’s and Prii. At this point, the car may start paying me.

    Speaking of, I need to replace the air conditioning in it. After 16 years, the compressor is no longer engaging. Anyone know of a cheap shop that would replace it and is good with old cars. I know it sounds crazy to drop a grand into it, but this only the 2nd repair I’ve had to make since buying it. The alternator needed replacing 2 or 3 years ago. Still on the original clutch too.

  110. Happy Renter says:

    [104] “The worker then tried to strike a deal. Tiggeman [fat daughter], Charpentier [fat mother] and a third overweight woman [fat friend] could fly, if they would sit together.

    ‘Of course my daughter was okay with that. But I wasn’t because the deal I made with Southwest when I left, I bought a ticket and it’s open seating, and you can sit wherever you want,” said Charpentier. ‘”

    Of course the fatties don’t want to sit next to each other: they want their fat free to ooze over the arm rest and invade the space of the normal-sized person sitting next to them. After all, it’s uncomfortable sitting next to someone who is obese, so why should the obese passengers suffer such an inconvenience?

    What she really wanted was attention (and probably a snack).

  111. I woulda given her the ticket if she’d agreed to squeal like a pig for me.

  112. NJGator says:

    Sigh. I was really looking forward to the Trump-Palin-Bachmann debates as an alternative to watching American Idol.

  113. Shore Guy says:

    Oh, man! Montclair NEEDS one of these:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/17/sports/a-companys-small-town-arenas-leave-cities-with-big-problems.html

    All bike paths can lead towards it.

  114. Shore Guy says:

    And the price is sooooo cheap, too:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/15/opinion/15arum.html

  115. Shore Guy says:

    Even too much for John to handle?

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/showbiz/tv/3577021/Womans-boobs-weigh-nearly-4st.html

    STRIPPER Chelsea sent This Morning’s viewers into a spin when she showed off her massive 164XXX boobs on the programme today.

    The US model, who has named her breasts Itsy and Bitsy, told the show’s bewildered hosts Phillip Schofield and Ruth Langsford that she loves the attention her massive chest brings her.

    The 35-year-old explained how she’d increased her bosom from a D cup with a series of operations including a now banned procedure called polypropylene breast implants.

    The 5ft 2ins blonde told the pair how her breasts, which weigh around 26lbs each, are still growing.

    Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/showbiz/tv/3577021/Womans-boobs-weigh-nearly-4st.html#ixzz1MXkzAIx4

    snip

  116. Juice Box says:

    re: #113 – Trick I heard from a Fatso one time on a plane. Buy two tickets and check in early at the counter, since you cannot check in online with two tickets in your name anyway, then have them make sure your left cheek and right cheek are seated together. Call customer service afterward and get a refund or voucher on the second ticket.

  117. JC says:

    Libtard #112: Wildridge Service Center in Washington Township. about a mile down Washington Ave. from exit 168. You can even go through Brigensack on your way there.

  118. NJGator says:

    Shore 116 – You underestimate us. Montclair already has an ice arena. Granted not on this grand scale, but we do have the taxpayer supported Clary Anderson Arena, which does not make money because the staff can’t even be bothered to call you back when you inquire about renting ice time (just ask Stu). We have this even though Montclair State University has it’s own facility – Floyd Hall Arena which also offers classes and has public free skates, etc.

    Don’t forget, we also have 3 public pools, so the rich people who came here for the diversity don’t actually have to swim with it. Of course we are so broke, that the hours the pools will be open this summer pretty much make them unuseable for anyone who is gainfully employed.

  119. Shore Guy says:

    This sounds promising for reducing laser/inkjet printing costs:

    http://news.cnet.com/8301-13845_3-20061950-58.html

  120. Shore Guy says:

    Yes, but can you book third-rate music and arts groups into it? Think GRAND, it is only taxpayer money, after all.

  121. 3b says:

    #20 JC Brigensack, where the local school budget was defeated, but the mayor and council were bullied by clueless moms to pass it anyhow. Why bother voting.

  122. Kettle1^2 says:

    Gator,

    Don’t forget, we also have 3 public pools, so the rich people who came here for the diversity don’t actually have to swim with it. Of course we are so broke, that the hours the pools will be open this summer pretty much make them unuseable for anyone who is gainfully employed.

    You thought the pools were for the gainfully employed???? That’s your problem right there.

  123. Libtard in the City says:

    JC…Can you tell me why Wild Ridge is better than the average Joe? It it price? Quality? Etc?

  124. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore

    Dont forget that building 4 is in danger of collapsing and the explosion at reactor 3 ejected fuel rods up to 2 miles away

    Tokyo Electric Power Company, the operator of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, says most of the fuel rods in the No.1 reactor had dropped to the bottom of the pressure vessel within 16 hours of the earthquake on March 11th.

    TEPCO also says the gauges at the No.2 and 3 reactors might not be showing the actual water levels and that both reactors are likely to have undergone meltdowns.

  125. NJGator says:

    Shore 123 – That’s what the Wellmont is for!

  126. NJGator says:

    Kettle 125 – True. Last summer we were told that if we raised the fee for a pool pass by $5, that people would actually die because they could no longer afford the pools and it would be hot. Of course anyone who could not afford a pool pass could simply request a scholarship from the town for the pass and the fee would be waived.

  127. NJGator says:

    Speaking of 3rd rate music groups, got an email offer today for $17 tickets to New Kids on the Block/Backstreet Boys at the Izod Center. Still probably about $17 too much.

    Why We Love This
    It’s the boy band event of the decade.
    Newly released album “NKOTBSB”offers mashups, a megamix and many of the platinum-charting favorites from each group.
    The years apart, many working as solo artists, lend a newfound complexity to the sound of all nine performers.

    http://www.giltcity.com/newyork/nkotbsb?ifs=mailing_id%3D32234%26link_type%3Dnkotbsb%26edid%3DLSEYO56-OM2D-95BC7P-HN3I-CGXJ-v1&OEID=32234|nkotbsb|NYCOtherFemale&ET=weekly&ECT=standard&EPT=body&ECA=view

  128. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore,

    The reaction at Chernobyl stopped because the liquefied core dispersed through the basement of the building, and fortunately the Russian made an immediate effort to pump the basement dry to prevent a steam explosion. Reactor 3 is reported to still be at risk of another hydrogen explosion.

    The interesting question now, is how do you entomb 3 melted reactor cores when there is strong evidence the foundations are cracked and leaking while the site sits right on the ocean (Hello Typhoons) and directly above the water table. Dont forget that you cant entomb the reactors ( even if you figure out how) until you address the minor issue of several hundred tons of spent fuel rods sitting on top of reactors 1,2, 3,& 4 (well, the remaining fuel rods that weren’t blown out of the reactor 3 SFP in the prompt criticality event)

  129. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Lib I got the guy if you want to drop the car up here for a week. Let me know what motor you have will get a price.

  130. Kettle1^2 says:

    Gator

    scholarship for a free pool pass???? what exactly are they studying?

  131. JJ says:

    Don’t brag about being cheap and then claim you Mr. fancy pants needs air conditioning and you want to hire someone to do your work. They are like $200 bucks on-line. Few beers and some elbow grease is all you need.

    Speaking of cheap,. I recall one rolling wreck I had in college did not have a battery. But we had jumper cables. Went to Jones beach one day, come out to parking lot all sunburnt smelling of beer and start our hey “anyone have a jump:. Some guy pulls over with wife and kids goes no problem, he grabs my cables hooks to his and then realizes I have no battery. Says, who the heck would drive around with no battery? I go well someone who needs a jump cause if I had one it would start on its own.

    Libtard in the City says:
    May 16, 2011 at 2:42 pm

    NJ TOAST:

    All my friends laugh when I pull up in my first car (my 95 Civic). It gives me great pleasure to share with them my cost per day for owning the vehicle compared to their Acura’s, Volvo’s, Mini’s and Prii. At this point, the car may start paying me.

    Speaking of, I need to replace the air conditioning in it. After 16 years, the compressor is no longer engaging. Anyone know of a cheap shop that would replace it and is good with old cars. I know it sounds crazy to drop a grand into it, but this only the 2nd repair I’ve had to make since buying it. The alternator needed replacing 2 or 3 years ago. Still on the original clutch too.

  132. NJ Toast says:

    Lib – at 16 years, you may have cascading repairs. Event Honda’s have their lifespan and potential $$ in may not be worth it. But who am I to say, I could not even untie the lines for the Cheapo ship yet alone be the captain. :)

    On a serious/safety note, structural integrity deterioration after 16 years?

  133. Kettle1^2 says:

    Hobo

    The US government is clearly instituting the Fukushima model of governance.

  134. NJGator says:

    Kettle 133 – Montclair subsidizes the pools with tax dollars. The membership fees do not cover operating expenses, and like everything else in town, if you don’t have the money to pay for it, you can get a free or subsidized ride.

    In the Ridge, there is a separate Pool “Utility” and all operating expenses for the pool must be covered by the membership fees of those who use it. No municipal tax dollars are spent on it.

  135. NJGator says:

    NJ Toast, et al – by all means convince Captain Cheapo to dump that old go cart. I have previously won the replacement vehicle through a wager on the final sale price of a home in GR that we were out bid on. If the 95 Civic dies, it is a total win for me!

  136. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore,

    some fun scuttlebutt for you. japanese food supply is F’d

    http://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=3302504&postcount=126

  137. Libtard in the City says:

    My car will never die. How dare you even consider such a dismal thought.

    NJ Toast – The so-called go-cart has been garage kept for the last 7 and a half years. She’s actually pretty clean under the hood. I recently replaced the wires. I do all of the maintenance at the 30,000 intervals, but I only change the oil every 5K miles. This 3K stuff is a joke. The same car is sold in Europe and it says change oil every 5K. American’s are suckers.

    Mike (IW) It’s a 1995 Honda Civic DX Hatchback. The engine is a 102-horsepower, 1.5-liter 4-cylinder. Please get a quote. The Firestone guys who have done me well for the past 7 years want well over 1K as does a local guy who is an old Honda and Volvo specialist. Sh1t, when I bought this bad boy, the AC was only a $1,200 option. I’m even willing to go with a used compressor if it works from a value proposition. By the way, it is R134 refrigerant and not the old R12 Freon. Thanks for the help as always. I’ll get you a bag of Kona for the trouble.

  138. Nicholas says:

    I concur with John on the 95 Civic Air Conditioner compressor. Just buy it off ebay for 140$ and replace it yourself. Then go back in time and buy freon before it was a banned consumer item and recharge the AC lines.

    Seriously, if you haven’t had any work on your AC since you got the vehicle so many years ago you need to go to a professional and get the freon claimed from those lines. it is toxic waste and has very strict disposal regulations. Please do not polute that crap into the environment. Buy the compressor and take the car and parts to a professional and have them installed.

    Just as an aside, I ran with a 1981 Mazda 626 for many years with a broke air conditioner because dealing with it was just awful. Ignore my advice if your vehicle is modern enough to use a more environmentally friendly substance.

  139. Shore Guy says:

    Education bubble, anyone?

    A Pew Research Center report titled “Is College Worth It?” released Sunday shows a majority of Americans think colleges fail to deliver enough bang for their buck.

    Of 2,142 adults surveyed, 57% said the higher education system in the U.S. fails to provide students with good value for the money they and their families spend. An even larger group (75%) said college is too expensive for most Americans to afford.

    Read more: http://newsfeed.time.com/2011/05/16/is-college-too-pricey-to-pay-off-57-of-americans-say-yes/#ixzz1MYDkkMdo

  140. Shore Guy says:

    Kettle,

    I was only half joking when I borrowed from This is Spinal Tap the other day. Before long, the scale will need to go to eight to accomodate Fuk-U-Shima.

  141. 26% 30 Year Realtor says:

    I have a 95 Civic that my daughter drives and the a/c doesn’t work either. 130,000+ miles and still going strong! Just picked up a 95 Buick Lesabre for my twin sons to learn on. Only 88,000 miles and everything works.

  142. Shore Guy says:

    They should build a house (jail cell will do) for the Tepco CEO, right there on the reactor grounds.

  143. JJ says:

    My father in law used to tell me that he blew an engine once on way home from work got up early, pulled it out, rebuilt in, put it back in and made it to work on time. How hard is an AC.

    I actually rarely turn on my AC. My musky manly smell excites the ladies.

  144. Shore Guy says:

    She has a future in politics, methinks:

    Twin Girls Born In Single Body with Two Heads In China

    AOL Weird News

  145. Juice Box says:

    re #143- Shore – something like one in five college grads are doing something that does not require a degree. Postmen, Waiters, telemarketers, heck even 1/3 of flight attendants have college degrees. I won’t mention housewives, oops I just did.

  146. Shore Guy says:

    I am sure John knows plenty of strippers with Masters and Ph.D.s, also.

  147. Shadow of John says:

    Hell, I know a jr. account manager who blew two engines on her way to work, just as a warmup to meeting her bosses boss and convincing him to let her work under him.

  148. Shore Guy says:

    oy!

  149. Shore Guy says:

    Juice,

    We have a problem in this country wherein many companys require that candidates have college degrees for jobs that, objectively, do not require them. If challenged on Title VII grounds, I suspect that most employers could not defend the minimum requirements they have set for many jobs.

  150. JJ says:

    I yanked an engine out of a 71 Cuda once, however, never put one back in. Car was called “grumpy’s toy”

    Dope at school bought a blown engine track car cheap with like 10K miles on it, big plan was yank engine, put in junkyard one in and make $500 bucks. Meanwhile the actual car untouched would be worth a fortune now.

    I am ashamed to have helped him.
    Shadow of John says:
    May 16, 2011 at 5:11 pm

    Hell, I know a jr. account manager who blew two engines on her way to work, just as a warmup to meeting her bosses boss and convincing him to let her work under him.

  151. Mikeinwaiting says:

    “Hell, I know a jr. account manager who blew two engines on her way to work, just as a warmup to meeting her bosses boss and convincing him to let her work under him.”

    OK things are normal on the thread today, Clot is breaking out the ever-clear, Shore & Kettle have the Nuc situation down pat & Stu is still gonna keep running his 95, we have reached a new low in faux John stories (didn’t think that was possible), Oh & by the way RE is toast for the next decade. Gotta love it!

    PS Grim, Stu you got mail.

  152. 3b (124)-

    Vote with a bullet. The new meme of the ’10s.

  153. gator (129)-

    Amazing that your People’s Republic issues “scholarships” for lard-assed layabouts to sun themselves like bloated walruses at your town’s fetid watering tanks.

  154. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Shore “We have a problem in this country wherein many companys require that candidates have college degrees for jobs that, objectively, do not require them.”

    Worst part is they still can’t get the job done right.

  155. If I ran Montklair, I’d stock all the town pools with crocodiles.

    Take a swim now, lardass.

  156. Run like a wildebeest, slackard!

  157. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Clot 157 lard-assed layabouts, bloated walruses, fetid watering tanks in one sentence, outstanding.

  158. vodka (136)-

    In this event, is Erasherhead analogous to a spent fuel rod that’s been hurled two miles in an explosion?

  159. jj (147)-

    I imagine that mixed with the crush valor, it is sublime indeed. Probably reminiscent of fine Corinthian leather.

    “My musky manly smell excites the ladies.”

  160. shore (148)-

    If not politics, she could be jj’s side action.

  161. Shore Guy says:

    Do any of the acoustic guitar players here have any experience with either the Planet Waves Humidipak or the Kyser Lifeguard?

  162. Mikeinwaiting says:

    30 year 145 never saw the point in buying a new driver a brand new car, good move.

  163. chicagofinance says:

    More like p0rno….imagine 4 guys at once…..

    Shore Guy says:
    May 16, 2011 at 5:03 pm
    She has a future in politics, methinks:
    Twin Girls Born In Single Body with Two Heads In China
    AOL Weird News

  164. grim says:

    Do any of the acoustic guitar players here have any experience with either the Planet Waves Humidipak or the Kyser Lifeguard?

    Aren’t all the good guitars 40 years old, beat up, spit on, pissed on, sweat covered, pick guards worn through, and burned by the butts of countless gigs?

  165. Barbara says:

    POOLS! The political football in NB. You see, New Brunswick got rid of all the pools in the 70s-80s. They were expensive and falling apart. This is what the locals blame for all the crack whores, lousy student performance and all around thuggery. The pools. If the kids had pools…….everything would be different. Never mind the RWJU state of the art HS magnet, the new multi milliom dollar HS (thank you, NJ taxpayers) the revitalized downtown with plenty of job opportunities. No….the pools. I kid you not, every mayoral election, the pools is the #1 issue for the loyal opposition.

  166. The only use for pools in a place like NB is for drowning people who are, er, excess to requirements.

  167. victor says:

    long time lurker, need help in determining what is the fair price for this house

    http://www.trulia.com/property/1064611090-86-Lakewood-Dr-Denville-NJ-07834

    thank you

  168. victor (171)-

    With or without a wrap-around from the listing agent?

  169. Latest from Eric Sprott. Great stuff.

    “One of the things we should look at is the trading of silver in the paper markets, I mean the Comex and the SLV. Last week it averaged 1.2 billion ounces per day. There is only 700 million ounces mined in a year. There is only 33 million ounces of physical silver that is available for delivery by the commercial shorters. If something like 3% of the people that were trading silver in one day demanded physical delivery, there would be no silver on the Comex…. The key market is the physical market. I don’t think this raid is going to work.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/eric-sprott-discusses-silvers-prospects-and-last-weeks-raid-max-keiser

  170. Barbara says:

    170.
    Hobo, we have The Raritan for that.

  171. Painhrtz says:

    Stu I have done it not that bad take to a shop have them purge the lines make sure you change the dryer as well sorry gator

  172. Shore Guy says:

    “Aren’t all the good guitars 40 years old, beat up, spit on, pissed on, sweat covered, pick guards worn through, and burned by the butts of countless gigs?”

    YES, but they are also kept at 45% humidity, otherwise the sounding surfaces crack and then they become multi-thousand-dollar kindling.

  173. Shore Guy says:

    If one wants to find the true value of Au and AG, prohibit people rom buying on margin.

  174. Shore Guy says:

    from, too

  175. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Gator, give me a buzz late tonight, after 9

  176. Confused In NJ says:

    LAS VEGAS – After 45 years, Jerry Lewis is retiring as host of the Muscular Dystrophy Association’s Labor Day telethon.

    The 85-year-old comedian and Las Vegas resident issued a statement Monday through the Tucson, Ariz.-based Muscular Dystrophy Association calling it time for a “new telethon era.”

    He says he’ll make his final appearance on the six-hour primetime telethon Sept. 4 by performing his song “You’ll Never Walk Alone.”

    Lewis says he’ll continue as the association’s national chairman, a role he’s held since the early 1950s.

    Lewis’ first Labor Day weekend telethon in 1966 was broadcast by a single New York City television station and raised more than $1 million.

    Last year’s Jerry Lewis MDA Telethon raised almost $59 million to fund research to find a cure for muscular dystrophy and ALS, or Lou Gehrig’s disease.

  177. Shore Guy says:

    “Jerry Lewis is retiring ”
    I thought he was dead. Are they replacing him with Abe Vigoda?

  178. Confused In NJ says:

    182.Shore Guy says:
    May 16, 2011 at 7:39 pm
    “Jerry Lewis is retiring ”
    I thought he was dead. Are they replacing him with Abe Vigoda?

    It’s sad that after 45 years there was no MD cure. I think Jerry held on that long expecting one. Dean Martin is the one who died. Abe Vigoda is still ticking too.

  179. Fabius Maximus says:

    Gator,
    You got mail.

  180. Sarah says:

    Wow, I wondered why there were hundreds of comments per entry…those leper jokes are keepers….(no pun intended). I probably am too stable to post, but the locker room banter is certainly a glimpse into a work-world unfamiliar to me.

    re: Hobo at #71, good laugh on that one.

  181. Fabius Maximus says:

    #97 Still

    mesquite smoked ribs and corn on a Wednesday and I can’t even pull a Sickation day

  182. livinginpa says:

    oops I posted this in older thread.

    **repost**

    ok, so last week you all confirmed my feeling that renting in Bucks for the next year wouldn’t be so bad and probably most prudent. The quest to find a suitable rental for a family of 4 (which is not proving easy) vs. making the “move up” purchase this summer (which is also not proving easy) continues to loom. Our house is sold and we gotta get out in 2 months. As you all point out, you can’t have tomorrow’s price today, but man most of these sellers are still smoking crack. The Northern NJ market does not have the “we’re different here” perception locked up. (Those that get it and have priced accordingly go under contract within days; unfortunatley none of those around at the moment) So, advice please… spouse and I are trying to get a handle on how big a discount we should be looking for at this point. I’m aware of the recent Zillow statistics and in order to try to minimize the drop if we purchase this summer, it looks like we should be looking for 5-7% below last year’s sales. The problem is getting anyone to even pay attention to this kind of offer. Also, we are inclined NOT to put 20% down given that we’d like to use some cash and then “other people’s money” rather than sell our own assets to make this move. Thoughts?

  183. 3b says:

    #156 Tempting, but I will have to settle with voting with my feet.

  184. Libtard says:

    I stopped doing my own work on my cars since I found a particularly honest Firestone here in Montclair. The other reason I stopped doing my own work is because my car is about 4 inches off the ground, hence the 40mpg gas mileage (plus the 13″ rims help too). I have ramps, but my bumper is so low to the ground that it pushes the ramps before my tires manage to get on them. Plus it’s a stick so stopping at the exact stopping point without going to far is a major pita. Honestly, I know all about the Ebay aftermarket compressors and was planning on going that route even with the mechanic. I’ve just reached the point in my life where it’s just not worth it to do the major repairs on my own. The batteries, the wires, the PCV valve, the rotor and cap, headlights, etc., I still do because it’s real easy. The oil changes and the brakes I get done so cheaply that it just doesn’t make sense to get my hands dirty to save $10 or $20.

    Captain Cheapo advice…If you find a reliable Firestone, get their credit card ASAP. First off, you get 10-15% back in future repairs. They send you a certificate quarterly. They also send you coupons for $10 oil changes and the like. If you use the card for about a year, they give you the premier membership for free which includes lifetime free tire rotations, free roadside assistance (no more AAA) and other like perks and I swear, coupons that frequently make having them do the work cheaper than doing it yourself. The problem is, finding a reliable Firestone. I’ve used the guys in Montclair for over 10 years without a single problem. Once I tried to get my brakes done because they were grinding. I swear I figured I was burning the rotors, but they ended up blowing out the pad dust and sent me on the way without any charge. When was the last time you heard of mechanic refusing to do a brake job since it wasn’t necessary. Needless to say, they take appointments and they are always willing to drive me home and back when I’m too lazy to walk the mile or so. They also love my dog who usually accompanies me on my visits. Where they suck is on purchasing older parts as they make a lot of their money on the markup. You should also never buy tires there. Buy them at Tire Rack and have them mount them for you. They charge almost nothing for it.

    So call me a ladyboy, I’m still Captain Cheapo.

    Speaking of Captain Cheapo, I just got quotes on my countertops. A place a good cheap and handy friend of mine used is called Marble.com. They estimated about $1,8o0 cheaper for granite than another guy quoted me for Caeserstone (Silostone but better). I’m going there tomorrow morning before work (opens at 7am, but near the GWB in Ridgefield Park) to get some numbers on other surface materials. It’s a Polish outfit and they work fast. Usually installed in 3 days from the time you pay. I’m not in THAT much of rush, but I’ll take it if they’ll give it. I’m not a huge fan of granite, but if it’s half the price of engineered stone, then I’ll probably join the rest of the Jones.

    Mike in Waiting, thanks in advance for the quotes on the AC replacement. I can certainly leave you the car. I just hope it’s a cool day when I drive up!

  185. relo says:

    169: Barb,

    Pool bikepath?

    Joyce,

    Flee while you can. The red pill is a b!t*h.

  186. relo says:

    Oops. Greater than, less than signs didn’t show between Pool/Bikepath. It occurs to me that is common interweb gibberish.

  187. Orion says:

    Grim(less): Congrats on NYT article, you’re on the map– again. And thanks, really, for the housing info you’ve shared the last few years.

  188. Fabius Maximus says:

    Stu,

    Marble.com I think are installers that everyone seems to subcontract to.

    Back in 2002 I used a place on Ferry St in Newark beside the Andros diner. It was a kitchen and tile place, but I just wanted countertops. They sent me round to the fabricators http://www.grandstonenj.com/ to pick out my slabs. Then marble.com showed up to measure and install. Grandstone is worth a visit just to check it out. They will ask for the name of your fabricator, but if you sweettalk them, they may give you a reference. You will let you walk around without a fabricator reference. At least you can have fun watching them fly 12×8 granite slabs throught the air on the cranes.

  189. cobbler says:

    Chinese Make Vancouver Homes Pricier Than NYC
    …Buyers from mainland China are leading a wave of Asian investment in Vancouver real estate as China tries to damp property speculation at home…
    …In 2010, Vancouver had the third-highest housing costs among English-speaking cities worldwide, according to Canada’s Frontier Centre for Public Policy. Only Hong Kong and Sydney, another magnet of Asian immigration, were more expensive. Vancouver’s median home price of C$602,000 ($618,000) was 9.5 times the annual median household income of C$63,100, the group said in a study released Jan. 24. Canada had a 4.6 national multiple, making it “seriously unaffordable,” while the U.S. at 3.3 was “moderately unaffordable,” the study showed. To be affordable, the multiple must be 3 or less…
    …I hope the government can do something to control the price” so younger generations can buy, said Huang, who paid almost C$1 million for a condo in the Westside’s Kitsilano neighborhood two months ago so her daughter, now aged 6, could attend school nearby…

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-16/chinese-spreading-wealth-make-vancouver-homes-pricier-than-nyc.html

  190. nj escapee says:

    177, Shore, did you buy yourself a vintage Martin?

  191. Vagstaimaa says:

    [url=http://aaa.com]aaa[/url]

  192. sas3 says:

    From nj.com

    N.J. to receive $913M more in tax revenue than expected…

    Cue the jokes on “the administration announces $1.5B tax cuts, and calls for cutting salaries of teachers and cops”.

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