Zillow: Foreclosures 25% of the Market (and rising!)

From HousingWire:

Foreclosures approach 25% of the housing market: Zillow

ales of homes foreclosed on in the previous 12 months made up 24% of the market in April, up from 16% one year ago, according to data compiled by Zillow.

It’s the 10th straight month of increases and yet another record high. There are still plenty of properties either in foreclosure or on the verge of it. Recent data puts the number of this shadow inventory at roughly 4.5 million.

And as these properties take more and more of the market share away from new or traditional sales, losses continued.

In April, 37.2% of homes sold for less than the previous purchase price, down only 1 basis point from the previous month and still 30% higher than one year ago.

The value of these homes fell as well, dropping 0.77% from the previous month and 8% from one year ago. However, Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries said values didn’t drop as far as they did between in November and December – a 0.89% dip – signaling some improvement in the trend.

A disparity between which homes are losing value continued in April. The most expensive one-third of homes in each market lost 0.74% in value, while the least expensive one-third of homes lost nearly a full percentage point in value.

A recent study from Altos Research showed signs of a volatile housing market for some time to come. Humphries adds the April data shows depreciation rates are improving in the Spring but not quickly enough to reach a bottom this year. JPMorgan Chase analysts recently pegged a new bottom for home prices for the summer of 2012.

This entry was posted in Foreclosures, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

196 Responses to Zillow: Foreclosures 25% of the Market (and rising!)

  1. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Hovnanian boldholders getting worried

    Hovnanian Enterprises Inc.’s bondholders are apparently losing confidence in the family-run home builder, which is using its dwindling cash to buy land even as the five-year U.S. housing slump deepens.

    The company “respectfully” disagrees with the notion it should save its cash to help pay off $1.67 billion in bonds that mature starting in 2014, said Larry Sorsby, the chief financial officer of the Red Bank-based Hovnanian.

    Cash and near-cash holdings fell to $316.4 million as of Jan. 31 from $849.2 million in 2009, the sharpest drop among the eight largest U.S. home builders, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    While other home builders are also buying land, Hovnanian’s higher leverage means it may run short on cash before the market recovers. Its stock and bond prices have plunged, limiting the company’s ability to tap capital markets.

    “My concern is Hovnanian doesn’t have enough cash,” Vicki Bryan, an analyst for debt research firm Gimme Credit LLC in New York, said in a telephone interview. “This is a poker game, and it’s all about who has the biggest stack of chips and who will last until the end of the game.”

  2. Just have Transocean sink a drilling rig into Ara’s head.

    Should be able to get 1mm barrels of heavy Saudi crude at around $97/barrel.

  3. Al Mossberg says:

    “WITHOUT CONFIDENCE IN THE FUTURE, NOBODY WILL BORROW TO INVEST.”

    Martin Armstrong.

    Nothing but doom on the horizon.

    http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Is%20the%20End%20Near%2006-05-2011.pdf

  4. Al (3)-

    The oracle has spoken.

  5. “Without confidence in the future, nobody will borrow to invest.”

    Martin Armstrong’s article, linked at #3, is the most important post ever made at this blog. It behooves us all to read it carefully and act accordingly.

  6. God bless Martin Armstrong. I hope he is safe, happy and feeling better after his time served as a political prisoner of the illegal and illicit Amerikan gubmint.

  7. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  8. Jets12 says:

    Hobo with a shotgun = Al Mossberg = Martin Armstrong, obviously. Interesting property in New Jersey. http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1035-Fernwood-Ave-Maple-Shade-NJ-08052/38114777_zpid/

    This $200K ‘dump’ above is the home of Martin Armstrong, and this is who you advise us to read and act accordingly? Why? To be a loser like Martin Armstrong? LOL.

    As suspected and affirmed above, the real life behind an ardent voice on this blog is a loser.

  9. gary says:

    JPMorgan Chase analysts recently pegged a new bottom for home prices for the summer of 2012.

    If you keep calling “bottom” eventually you’ll get it right.

  10. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Jets have you taken a look at the futures US, European & Asian markets this morn. This guys call looking pretty good going into next week when it should really hit the fan.

  11. Mikeinwaiting says:

    I forgot we are up 26% in that place of fable & legend, enter unicorns stage left. So if the markets tank per Armstrong it doesn’t matter.

  12. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    I’d put my money on Martin Armstrong over realtywhore Jets12 any day

  13. A political prisoner who called two economic collapses almost to the day…stuffed into Ft. Dix and put in solitary confinement…beaten and denied medical treatment…all because he wouldn’t cough up his algos to the gubmint.

    Yeah, a real loser.

  14. Jets12 says:

    Mikeinwaiting, look at the caliber of home of Martin Armstrong. It’s nonsensical and silly to defer any measure of credence on matters ‘economic’ in any way, to a person who clearly has NEVER prospered in the economy. Simple enough?

    Would you take flying lessons from a person who’s never flown a plane? Would you take Cooking lessons from a person who’s never cooked? Martin Armstrong is non-accomplished on matters ‘economics’.

    Very common to see those who’ve never distinguished themselves and prosper in the economy, actually “DO” and not “TALK”, come on blogs and spout expertise. Again, you want it both ways on this blog. Look at the dwelling of Martin Armstrong, then then tell me how that dump speaks to a person who has a track record of being keen or visionary in any way on the economy?

    It’s simply ridiculous on its face.

  15. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    J-E-T-S DUMB! DUMB!! DUMB!!!

  16. Neanderthal Economist says:

    The dwelling of armstrong says nothing. But his handwritten charts with claims of calling events to the day is childish…

  17. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    And yet he has called things to the day…ummm…maybe he knows what he’s talking about.

  18. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Just saying if the guy has a track record he’s worth listening to in my book; way more than most of the shills paid by a Wall Street Investment Bank or the Government – although there are a few decent Wall Street economists Rosenberg, Stephen Roach etc who are worth a listen.

  19. Meredith Whitney reiterating her muni doom call on Squawk.

    She should really be wearing PVC and a spiked dog collar.

  20. Waiting for Jets12 to Zillow Meredith Whitney’s house…

  21. Why don’t you Zillow my ass, you retard?

  22. nwnj says:

    Can anyone comment whether flippers still prevalent, and making money?

  23. Whitney now making doom call on housing (dbl. digit drops from current levels).

  24. still_looking says:

    hobo, 20

    Not PVC, Kevlar.

    sl

  25. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Stop it Clot, now I am going to have to read through 10,000 JJ posts this afternoon disparaging her

  26. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore, Doom

    Good thing the Japanese people never have to touch the ground and food doesn’t grow in the soil.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/japan-land-rising-sun-and-irradiated-ground

  27. still_looking says:

    Ket 28,

    Move over Victoria Secret, I have a new lovable undergarment supplier!

    Talk about lift and shape!

    sl

  28. Kettle1^2 says:

    SL,

    all you need is this:

    http://www.bulletproofme.com/Photos/Tactical_Body_Armor_Military_PHOTO.shtml

    And a nice pair of heels and hubby will be all over you!

  29. still_looking says:

    George Carlin: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6wOt2iXdc4&NR=1

    I love this man. So sad he wasn’t a relative of mine.

    sl

  30. still_looking says:

    Ket, 30

    Only problem is humping around the crotch flaps.

    sl

  31. Kettle1^2 says:

    SL,

    some matching shoes for your new outfit!

    http://www.rivithead.com/catalog/delight-609-2.html

  32. Kettle1^2 says:

    SL,

    they are attached with VELCRO!!! Easy access baby!!!! A quick forceful pull and those pesky panels are out of the way

  33. 3b says:

    #15 Jets: There is something seriously wrong with you. That is why the arsewhole in the Mc Mansion down the block form me was for closed on. Big house, BMW and a Land Rover all gone.

    So now your contention is if you do not live in your definition of a nice house, then you do not know what you are talking about. God Help River Edge. That is all I can say.

  34. Interesting.

    “It has been an article of faith among many Americans, young and old, that the United States “won” World War II. And clearly our contribution in men and materiel was indispensable to the Allied victory…especially in the Pacific of course. But because of Cold War tensions immediately following the end of the conflict, Americans were never really given an accurate portrayal of how the victory in Europe against Nazi Germany went down. This is by no means a shot at our brave veterans who fought and suffered and left behind their heroic comrades in the deserts of Africa, the mountains of Italy, the fields of France, the canals of Holland, or the snows of the Ardennes. But the simple fact is that eight out of ten Wehrmacht personnel were killed by the Red Army. And the Russians in turn suffered an astounding 23 million dead in just four years repelling the German invaders who launched what would result in, by far, the largest and bloodiest land battles in human history. That is just under 14% of their total population. Every family in that country was impacted by the war in some way. It is the equivalent of us suffering an unexpected invasion by a massive army hell bent on our annihilation and being forced to fight in a war in which almost 42 million Americans lose their lives. When you consider the national trauma we felt at the murder of 3,000 of our fellow citizens on 9/11, the psychological impact of our absorbing such a blow as did Russia in the 1940s would be unimaginable.

    The costliest battle the US fought in the war, the Battle of the Bulge, resulted in 90,000 American casualties (19,000 KIA) in fighting throughout the winter of 1944-45. This is a noble and ghastly sacrifice no doubt. However, in just the first twenty days of “Operation Barbarossa,” the German code-word for the 3.9 million man, 3,600 tank, 2,900 aircraft blitzkrieg across 600 miles of the Russian frontier launched on June 22, 1941, the Red Army suffered over two million killed…that is 100,000 deaths every day for just the first three weeks of the war.

    The ferocity and cold blooded brutality of the Ostheer (Germany’s Eastern Front army) attack on Russia was unlike anything our armed forces would ever face on a mass scale, save perhaps the American experience against the vicious Japanese onslaught in the Philippines. The general order passed down just prior to the invasion by the German High Command Chief of Staff, General Halder, echoing the words of Hitler at a pre-invasion meeting of some 200 senior officers, best sums up the tone of the war in the East. “We must forget the concept of comradeship between soldiers…This is a war of annihilation. The war will be very different than that in the West. In the East, harshness today means lenience in the future. Commanders must make the sacrifice of overcoming their personal scruples.” [My emphasis added].

    By 1945 when their soldiers stood upon a conquered pile of smoking rubble and corpses that was once the Nazi capital of Berlin – the taking of which would cost the Russians yet another 300,000 lives – the Soviet Union could count their dead at over fifty-five times those of their US allies. In that time the Red Army had pushed the Ostheerback 1,300 miles from the Volga River and engaged and destroyed over 600 German divisions as compared to 175 on the Western Front…formations that Hitler could not commit to repel the Western Allies in Normandy. One wonders how the war in Europe would have played out had the Soviet-German Non-aggression Pact remained in place. But with two of the world’s most brutal and megalomaniacal dictators with two of the world’s most powerful armies facing each other, the war in the East was a fait accompli—which though a catastrophe for both nations, was a blessing to the American, British, and Canadian troops who landed against a much weaker opponent on D-Day than would have otherwise been the case.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-russia’s-world-war-ii-experience-needs-be-better-understood

  35. Mike says:

    Still Looking No. 32 The man was a genius! Remember buying his AM/FM Album back in the early 70’s . Had a front row seat at the Union County Arts Center which he referred to as a hardware store compared to the places in Vegas and AC but he showed up every year. Really miss him!

  36. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Hobo, not to spit in ZH’s cherrios but it is pretty much common knowledge of us learned folks that the Russians bore the brunt of the Wermacht in WWII. Unfortunately, most ‘merican flag waivers seem to not understand that fact. If you want to get down to technicalities we were allies with the Soviets. Patton understood the dangers that a protracted conflict with the Soviets would cause us and proposed re-arming the remaining German Divisions to march back to Moscow while Stalin’s forces were weakened and we had standing armies in Europe. Sadly, Patton’s foresight proved correct. Though we never got into his shooting war, the cold war bled us all, while we fought proxy wars that we are still paying the price for in the middle east

  37. Kettle1^2 says:

    Hobo 36

    look back at the planned strategies for a ground confrontation with soviet Russia in a european front. The military took those lessons to heart. They were well aware that the only way to stop such a massive front was with nuclear weapons used to inflict mass casualties. trying to stop such a front with conventional weapons would only delay them at best.

  38. Dink says:

    For anyone who works in nyc…great $1 deals for lunch today

    https://livingsocial.com/instant?preferred_city=3&ref=nav

  39. Juice Box says:

    re #36 – Much more complicated story since the US started lend lease with Russia after Congress passed the law in 1941. We “lent” the Soviet Union 21,000 fighter aircraft the P-39, or air cobra, and the improved version called king cobra. Military Aid was also only about 10% of our overall aid to Russia during the lend lease program.

    In the first years after the invasion of Germany the Soviet Union was fighting for survival and would have won without lend lease, but further victories and movement to Europe would be questionable without US Aid to Russia.

    We won the war due to air superiority.

  40. Kettle1^2 says:

    Juice

    we won because hitler and the german generals made a very bad decision to run run 2 massive fronts. if they had not done so the outcome would have likely been very different.

  41. Quick question for my own curiosity……

    Is there any one of those FSBO websites that is clearly better than the others ??

    ForSaleByOwner.com ?? Craigslist ??

  42. timcahill478 says:

    Hi

    I read this post 2 times. It is very useful.

    Pls try to keep posting.

    Let me show other source that may be good for community.

    Source: Employee review phrases

    Best regards
    Jonathan.

  43. Juice Box says:

    Kettle1 – The Luftwaffe had 1,300 aircraft at its peak in France. No where near enough to deal with over 20,000 allied aircraft composed of P-51 Mustangs and heavy long range Bombers. At times the German Aces were being chased by 7 or 8 P-51s at the same time. The Luftwaffe also never developed four-engine long range bombers in any significant numbers, and was thus unable to conduct an effective long-range strategic bombing campaign against either the Russians or the Western Allies.

    Granted things might have changed without the second front in Russia, but all that meant was we would have had to deploy 40,000 aircraft on the Western front instead.
    Without Air Superiority there would be no victory just another slog of WW I type trench combat, it would have taken much longer but we still would have won.

  44. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Ket, replacing Guderian was the single largest mistake of Operation Barbarosa, luckily for us. Otherwise most of Europe would be speaking German, as his 2nd panzer division had Stalin $hitting his jack boots.

  45. gary says:

    Whitney now making doom call on housing (dbl. digit drops from current levels).

    Any Questions?

  46. Kettle1^2 says:

    Juice 45

    perhaps. It’s all speculation until we decide to re-enact it via WWIII

  47. gary says:

    I didn’t think so. meh!

  48. gary says:

    And that’s that.

  49. Juice Box says:

    re: # 48 – Kettle1 – Lets not forget the Germans would have been subject to the Little Boy and Fat Man if the war dragged on for only three more months. The Germans surrendered on May 9th, the Trinity Test was on July 16th and the Little Boy was dropped on Japan on August 6th in 1945 an untested weapon at the time followed up by Fat Man only three days later. 3 months was all it was between the vaporization of perhaps Berlin or Munich.

  50. Shore Guy says:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303657404576363984173620692.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop

    The Economy Is Worse Than You Think

    Expect more bad news until someone enacts a plan to bring deficits under control without raising taxes.

    By MARTIN FELDSTEIN

    The policies of the Obama administration have led to the weak condition of the American economy. Growth during the coming year will be subpar at best, leaving high or rising levels of unemployment and underemployment.

    The drop in GDP growth to just 1.8% in the first quarter of 2011, from 3.1% in the final quarter of last year, understates the extent of the decline. Two-thirds of that 1.8% went into business inventories rather than sales to consumers or other final buyers. This means that final sales growth was at an annual rate of just 0.6% and the actual quarterly increase was just 0.15%—dangerously close to no rise at all. A sustained expansion cannot be built on inventory investment. It takes final sales to induce businesses to hire and to invest.

    The picture is even gloomier if we look in more detail. Estimates of monthly GDP indicate that the only growth in the first quarter of 2011 was from February to March. After a temporary rise in March, the economy began sliding again in April, with declines in real wages, in durable-goods orders and manufacturing production, in existing home sales, and in real per-capita disposable incomes.

    snip

    The data for May are beginning to arrive and are even worse than April’s. They are marked by a collapse in payroll-employment gains; a higher unemployment rate; manufacturers’ reports of slower orders and production; weak chain-store sales; and a sharp drop in consumer confidence.

    snip

  51. Kettle1^2 says:

    juice,

    you may be 100% correct. There are 100 different scenarios you could run. either way it would have been very messy. In terms of nukes, we only had the 2 and didnt have enough material for any others for a while. the physical and psychological impact would have probably been somewhat different if used on the Germans.

  52. Shore Guy says:

    More good news (this has been obvious from the start, what employer wouldn’t opt for a defined contribution when faced with out-of-control healthcare costs?):

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304432304576371252181401600.html?mod=WSJ_newsreel_opinion

    “The McKinsey study, “How US health care reform will affect employee benefits,” predicts that employers will either drop coverage altogether, offer defined contributions for insurance”

  53. Shore Guy says:

    snip

    snip

  54. SoccerDad (aka DeepThroat) says:

    According to Albert Speer, dir. of operations of the third Reich, the straw that broke the camel’s back, was when the US discovered that strategic bombing was more effective than saturation bombing (Dresden). The Germans were still turning out tanks but we had destroyed all their ball bearing factories.

  55. escapee says:

    “On Wall Street the hatchet man cometh.

    Deep-pocketed bankers and traders are bracing for what could be a fresh round of job cuts on the Street, concentrated in equities trading and investment banking, where firms are considering eliminating thousands of jobs in the coming weeks, The Post has learned.

    Barclays Capital, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley currently are among those financial institutions either weighing staff cuts or actually paring payroll as they struggle to rein in costs and eke out profits in a choppy market, sources told The Post.

    The exact size of the layoffs across the industry could not be learned, but it’s possible total jobs cuts could run into the thousands as firms assess the impact on their bottom lines of sweeping regulatory reform and a balky economic recovery.

    Reps for the banks refused to comment on possible cuts.

    As it stands, the Wall Street securities business in New York employs about 168,500 workers, according to the city’s Independent Budget Office.

    Barclays Capital, which has about 140,000 employees globally, is in the process of laying off staff that could result in significant headcount reductions by the end of the year, sources say. People with direct knowledge of the firm’s business say about 50 staffers have been laid off from the firm’s global equities sales and trading unit so far.

    “[Wall Street] is adjusting to a world in which you’re going to have to generate higher margins,” said Brad Hintz, bank analyst at Sanford Bernstein. “For many firms, it looks like that the trading world has changed and firms are resizing their trading.”

    Job cuts on Wall Street are always a delicate affair. Firms are loath to cut too deep or too soon, as it could result in being short-handed if a genuine rebound kicks in.

    A reduction in headcount would come after many Wall Street firms beefed up in 2009 and 2010, adding some 28,000 employees with the belief that the financial crisis had subsided and happier days had returned.

    In weighing layoffs, Wall Street firms are also attempting to factor in the impact of a new era of Wall Street regulatory reform ushered in by Dodd-Frank, where increased regulatory scrutiny is expected to eat into profits further.

    Bank execs are said to be hoping to wait to see how details of hundreds of rules, introduced under Dodd-Frank, look before making any cuts. “

  56. njluv2travl says:

    I suppose Zillow’s percentages will increase once the NJ Supreme Court rules on how to proceed with the 30,000 impending/suspended foreclosures filed against the big six lenders earlier this year. Not looking forward to that downfall…

  57. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore,

    no matter what they do it will get worse before it gets better. if you cut government spending then people lose government assistance and people & businesses depending on that nose dive. Raise taxes and you drive down consumption even further while probably creating an inverse reaction on tax receipts ( i.e. taxes go up tax receipts go down).

    Both need to happen. but regardless, serious pain is in our future.

  58. Shore Guy says:

    Ket,

    The only way we get our heads out of an economic guillotine is for both parties to be honest and tell the Amerivan public that 1) we have way overspent, 2) we have way overpromised, 3) there are no painless ways out of the mess 4) if we do not fix things NOW, we are doomed as an international power (and, having ticked-off any number of folks while on the top of the heap, we can expect various forms of retribution) 5) to fix things government will need to cease doing some things that are in fact valuable and not wastes of money.

    We need an immediate cut in every federal program, if it is just 1%, so be it. But, we need the overall budget to be smaller than the year before and this needs to continue for 10 years or so. Medicaid is out of control and needs to be scaled back in ways that hurt the least number of people. Are people going to be inconvenienced in this process. Yes they are. Nevertheless, if we do not stop the car before it goes over the cliff, just about every single person in this nation is going to be run through a meat grinder.

  59. Shore Guy says:

    kettle,

    I assume that at some point revenue increases will be necessary; however, if we raise revenue withouf first making every possible cut, we will never make the cuts.

  60. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore 60

    Has any government ever actually done what you propose? I cant think of any in the last 50 – 100 years off of the top of my head.

    Such actions would coincidentally bankrupt the already insolvent big banks overnight. This is what happens when you are bankrupt as a nation and refuse to deal with it.

  61. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Shore show me one politician with the backbone to do that and I’ll show you someone who will be laughed off the stage and vilified.

  62. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore

    this is also what happens when you chase exponential/geometric growth curves. Would the population even accept such a plan as yours or would they simply riot until some new political lackey promised them more bread an circus?

    BUT THEY PROMISED US insert entitleent here!!!!

  63. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    The waricans and welafarats would never, they would rather drive the car off the cliff. Mainly because there is no intellectual honesty in this country and the values that once made us great are dead and buried thanks to the policies over the last 80 years, starting with the commie in charge FDR

  64. 3b says:

    #42 Never attack Russia in the winter.

  65. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [32] SL

    Okay, TMI already.

  66. gary says:

    “You learned the two greatest thing in life, never rat on your friends, and always keep your mouth shut.”

  67. hughesrep says:

    http://blogs.app.com/inthemoney/

    Originally listed at 11.9 million, recently listed at $9.5 million, sold at $6.2.

    Can you hear me now?

  68. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “And yet he has called things to the day…ummm… maybe he knows what he’s talking about.”
    He, if you believe that I’ve got a house to sell you… or maybe he really is nastrodamous, only more accurate.

  69. NJCoast says:

    I had the pleasure of working for George Carlin on several occasions. He was friendly and usually very serious backstage, constantly rehearsing his routine, muttering to himself and pacing. I miss making his pasta “al dente, sauteed in good olive oil and garlic with all the excess drained off” which he washed down with an O’Douls.

  70. still_looking says:

    Nom,

    Yeah, yeah, yeah…

    I still gotta finish prepping for Saturday’s gig.

    Oh, and you’ve got mail.

    sl

  71. Libtard in the City says:

    SL.

    I will make it up there without Gator and Junior and they will be joining me later in the afternoon. Anything I should bring?

  72. Kettle1^2 says:

    neanderthal 70

    he has made a point of saying he isnt a nostrodomus, that he is just using math and following whatever his algorithm is. I have read some of his stuff and he doesnt seem to make calls in a significantly different manner then any other analyst type. I think some people have hyped his words beyond what they are.

  73. Kettle1^2 says:

    Can a nation be sovereign when it owes several generations worth of tax revenue to external creditors? can an individual really be “sovereign” when they owe years & years worth of income to creditors?

  74. Nation of Wussies HEHEHE says:

    Hmmm, why don’t you believe he had it down to practically the exact date? Hmmm?

  75. Kettle1^2 says:

    Watch out for those student loans, better not default!!!

    http://bcove.me/tbq1yqhz

  76. Nation of Wussies HEHEHE says:

    Ket,

    First rule of managing a government screw-up – DO NOT ACKNOWLEDGE THE GOVERNMENT SCREW UP.

  77. chicagofinance says:

    Another classic NY Post headline…..

    LEFT LEANING WEINER
    Peni$ photo congressman sent to online gal pal emerges

  78. Shore Guy says:

    The next headline will either be: “Weiner fails to measure up” or “Congressman is big di-ck”

  79. Shore Guy says:

    Ket and Pain,

    The very reason I choose to not run.

  80. Shore Guy says:

    Let me clarify, the vilification of people who tell the economic truth and the actions necessary to save the government’s economic foundation, are the very reasons I choose to not run.

  81. still_looking says:

    Lib,

    Just bring a towel – I have a bunch but I don’t know how many people are swimming… and anyone who can help me rube goldberg a music thing gets props…. I don’t have any of the latest music downloaded and I’m sure my selection of ozzie isn’t gonna be a crowd pleaser. I don’t have any Gaga, Rihanna, etc etc.

    Last resort is radio – kinda lame – and I’m too fried on cook, decorator, planner, shopper etc to be a techno-geek.

    I’m in need of help.

    sl

  82. Kettle1^2 says:

    Looks like it’s about time to loot the Greek corpse since they can’t seem to get a financial heartbeat.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/troica-report-next-aid-disbursement-can-not-take-place-until-greece-corrects-underfinancing-

  83. Happy Renter says:

    [60] Shore for President, I’m in.

  84. Libtard in the City says:

    Shore…might I suggest you run on a ticket with Jamil. You won’t even need to finance your war chest.

  85. Nicholas says:

    You should just invite over some musicians and have them play some live music at your event. Perhaps offer them free food or beer. I would gladly play at events for free stuff.

    Alternately, the internet is full of hundreds of radio stations that come in perfectly with low chatter/adevertising. I just type “internet radio” into google. I settled on Live365 as a pretty nice site that has low technical knowhow required. Set up a couple of speakers and your good to go.

  86. DL says:

    Clotbo: Ref 36: What gets me is that we totally misinterpreted the results of WWII. The retards in the State Dept and DOD honestly believe we successfully pulled off nation building in Germany and Japan. That monumental misunderstanding has shaped our foreign policy for the last 60 years causing us to plunder the American treasury under the illusion we could build Switzerland in Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq, and Afghanistan. The reality was, we never built a nation. Germany and Japan were already nation states. We merely re-constructed them. Wait till you see how much Libya is going to cost…

  87. DL says:

    On my last visit to mother Russia, their Commander of the Ground Forces told us Russia lost 28 million in WWII.

  88. Libtard in the City says:

    ^tnx = $2.93

  89. DL says:

    On the visit before the last, they said it was 25 million, so apparently they are still dying in droves.

  90. still_looking says:

    Nicholas, 87

    Thanks! I will check it out…

    sl

  91. still_looking says:

    Nicholas 87

    Hey! Cool! This works well! I have three areas to play and have to mix it up for adults, kids… Neat! (yeah. I know. I need to get out more… :(

    sl

  92. sas3 says:

    Shore, #60…

    And your unstated implication seems to be that letting W’s tax cuts expire is “too drastic” when compared to “cut every federal program completely”?

    In 1999, W was for cutting taxes because we had a surplus, then he cut taxes because the economy was tanking after 9/11, then he cut taxes because we were needed to spend an extra trillion in Iraq… everything billed to credit card. Now, the GOP is for cutting taxes because we have a huge deficit.

    It is like always driving south along I25, never even considering a detour or a U-turn, and then being surprised to find yourself in Mexico (or becoming Mexico).

    Many folks in your generation took full advantage of all the sacrifices of the previous generation, and when they find themselves at the top of the food chain, they start brandishing words like “freedom” to basically wriggle out of an all unwritten social contracts. They wriggled out of serving the country by getting rid of the draft, they gamed the tax policies, and are responsible for many unnecessary wars. Nothing they did is illegal, but that’s a pretty low bar.

  93. Kettle1^2 says:

    Doom

    you should appreciate this:

    Third World America 2011: Forget “Fast Tracking to Anarchy” We’ve Arrived

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/janet-tavakoli/third-world-america-2011_b_873200.html

  94. Kettle1^2 says:

    SAS3

    We are WAY beyond the removal of tax cuts even being a drop in the bucket. in order to get our financial house in order we would need substantial cuts across the board as well as substantial tax increases.

    mandatory spending programs alone ( Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Interest on National Debt) are greater then total tax receipts. Mandatory spending programs only make up about 60% of the total budget.

  95. freedy says:

    “is New Jersey Third World Yet?”

  96. JoeR says:

    http://irvinehomes.ocregister.com/2011/06/06/realtors-complain-about-blogger-who-says-they-lie/18073/

    Realtors go after blogger who says they lie
    June 6th, 2011, 12:00 pm
    posted by Marilyn Kalfus, real estate reporter

    The Orange County Association of Realtors has filed a grievance against an Irvine real estate broker who writes a blog that takes critical looks at the housing crash, homebuyers and real estate agents.
    .
    Larry Roberts, who writes the IrvineHousingBlog.com, freely admits going “over the top” in his posts, which are particularly harsh on homeowners who default on loans. He frequently shows MLS photos of properties that have gone into foreclosure. He also has accused real estate agents, in general, of being dishonest.

    The grievance says Roberts and two other people have violated a code of ethics rule stating that “Realtors must not knowingly lie about competitors” as well as a general set of regulations governing how MLS information is used on the Internet.

    Roberts says OCAR is trying to impinge on his freedom of speech, and that the organization has no standing to keep him from posting on his blog.

    He has a broker’s license, he says, but he doesn’t run a brokerage or sell real estate, and he is not a Realtor or a member of OCAR.

    The complaint, which Roberts furnished to the Register, was accompanied by a printed version of a post he ran saying that real estate agents lie.

    “Realtors take advantage of their status as trusted experts to manipulate buyers, and they feel no responsibility when their statements are exposed as lies,” the statement said.

    Roberts says he believes he wrote it as an introduction to an article in the blog by a University of Arizona law professor. The piece, entitled, “Trust, expert advice and Realtor responsibility,” was later removed from the blog at the professor’s request because it was going to be published elsewhere, Roberts said.

    In an interview, Roberts elaborated, saying, ” …Many Realtors make representations about investment value and appreciation without regard to whether or not such statements are true. Most make these statements in ignorance, which technically isn’t lying, but some make these statements knowing better, which is lying.”

    Roberts added that while he has been hard on real estate agents in general, ”I have never singled any Realtor out and called them a liar.”

    OCAR’s Rena Budesky, who signed the grievance, declined to answer questions from a reporter seeking specifics about what Roberts did to prompt the action. “Everything that relates to grievance complaints, it’s all confidential,” she said.

    OCAR president Jean Tietgen did not respond to a reporter’s call.

    Roberts’ attorney Scott H. Sims sent a letter to Budesky and OCAR demanding they withdraw their complaint, which he called “frivolous … and a clear effort to interfere with Roberts’ right of free speech.”

    “Even if Roberts had engaged in wrongdoing, which he has not, any disciplinary action taken by an OCAR grievance panel would carry no legal force and effect and OCAR would be exposing itself to liability for any and all damages to Roberts,” the letter read in part.

    “If OCAR or any of its members disagree with Roberts’ opinions they are free to dispute them in ‘the marketplace of ideas,’ ” the letter says, “and leave it up to the public to decide who is right … We recognize that engaging in a civil debate about the health of the housing market may not blindly pad the pockets of OCAR’s members who are paid on commission — and thus have no incentive to tell their clients to do anything except to ‘buy,buy,’buy” — but such is the risk of doing business in a free market.”

    Also subjects of the grievance were real estate agent Shevy Akason and broker Tina Rector. Akason, who works at Evergreen Realty, advertises on Roberts’ blog and pays him for referrals. Rector is Evergreen’s founding broker.

    Akason sent OCAR a response saying while he occasionally writes a guest post in the blog about the market and sometimes submits observations, he has no control over the blog’s overall contents.

  97. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Ket she had me until public funding for elections

  98. Anon E. Moose says:

    SL [83];

    If you can connect the desired speakers to an internet source Pandora will solve your content woes. Input a few desired artists and/or songs and thier algorithm does a remarkable job at playing DJ.

  99. Kettle1^2 says:

    pain 99

    I never said i agree with all of her points, but the description of the urban/social decay was fun.

  100. shore (60)-

    TPTB will choose to run everyone through the meat grinder. However, the experience of going thru the grinder will be touted as a benefit to the middle class.

    “Nevertheless, if we do not stop the car before it goes over the cliff, just about every single person in this nation is going to be run through a meat grinder.”

  101. You can also count on us starting a war well before anyone in DC dares tell the truth.

  102. Juice Box says:

    Meh, Tavakoli

    Blame the wildings on the heat and Social Networking text-messaging flash mobs.
    If it can happen in Egypt why not Chi town?

    Crime in NYC is not up yet year over year and has long way to go to get back to the 70s or even the Dinkins era.

    http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cscity.pdf

  103. shore (82)-

    I thought the reason you aren’t running is the thousands of tweets you’ve made while wading in vats of cottage cheese.

  104. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Mckinsey says PPACA will cause over 30% of employers to slash health plans.

    Even I didn’t think it would be that high.

    Fabius, sas3, and schab: call BS on Mckinsey, you called it on me.

  105. chicagofinance says:

    N.J. Nears Deal to Cut Pensions, Benefits
    By Lisa Fleisher

    Chris Christie and Senate legislative leaders have reached a deal to cut pensions and benefits for current public employees, according to a person familiar with the matter.

    The deal would require workers to pay more of their salaries into the pension system, give up annual cost-of-living increases and pay a percentage of their health care premiums in a tiered system based on their salary, this person said. New employees would have to work longer to get full benefits. Current retirees would not be affected by the deal, nor will people who have at least 25 years in the system.

    Top Democratic lawmakers appear to support the proposal. Senate President Stephen Sweeney, who is also a private-sector labor leader, believes he has the votes in his caucus to make it work, according to a person familiar with the matter. It’s unclear whether Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver is on board with the deal — one legislative source said she was — and if she would be able to muster enough votes in the Assembly, which has been more of an obstacle to Christie’s agenda.

    Oliver “has no comment at this time,” her spokesman Tom Hester said.

    The deal, which has yet to be officially announced, comes more than nine months after Christie announced his proposals for cuts to help balance a pension system that was $53.9 billion underfunded at last count. Health-care liabilities for New Jersey’s public employees are even greater. Officials from the governor’s office could not be reached for comment.

    One significant change included in the proposal would contractually require the state to make its payments into the pension fund. For more than a decade, New Jersey has skipped payments into the pension system, made only partial payments or re-adjusted accounting to make the system look healthier than it is.

    A labor-management board system similar to what was proposed by Sweeney will also be put in place under the terms of the deal. Once the pension system hits a target of 75% funded, the board of four union representatives and four employer representatives will have the power to make changes to contribution rates, retirement ages and cost-of-living adjustments.

    The governor would also give up a right to impose a contract, moving instead to a super-conciliation process in which a mediator draws up an agreement if there is an impasse. The deal would apply to Christie’s current negotiations with state workers to renew their contract, which expires at the end of June.

    Under the deal, teachers and state workers will immediately increase their contributions to the pension system from 5.5% of their salary to 6.5%, with an additional 1% contribution phased in over seven years. State police, municipal police and firefighters will increase their contributions immediately from 8.5% of salary to 10%. Judges will need to increase contributions from 3% to 12%.

    Automatic cost-of-living adjustments will be eliminated. New employees would have to work longer to get full pension benefits.

    As for health care, employees would have to pay up to 30% of the cost of the premiums, depending on their salaries. The contribution would be phased in over four years.

    The goal is to make the pension system 80% funded in 30 years – a target that is seen as healthy. Pension systems, which take in money as it’s paid out, are not seen as needing to be 100% funded.

  106. chicagofinance says:

    here is a nice blog post in response to the above story….
    12:31 pm June 8, 2011
    maynardGkeynes wrote:
    .

    Any union leader that agrees to eliminating automatic cost of living increases should be impeached. There is no more essential protection to the value of a pension. Eliminating COLAs in this environment is pure insanity.

  107. chicagofinance says:

    12:53 pm June 8, 2011
    Tyrone Bibbins, esq. wrote:
    .

    Dear GOP meanies: the state underfunded the pension system for decades, most notably under the Christie Whitman regime, in order to provide an artificial low tax rate (esp. for the rich). state workers are not overpaid. many are highly educated and consider the pension to be part of their compensation, and a major incentive for them to sacrifice upfront salary they could have gotten in the private sector. Eliminating cost of living increases is like giving these people a 2-4% paycut every year. Christie Whitman, McGreavy, and Corzine– who all underfunded the pension– are nothing better than thieves. Chris Christie is the same, and a liar for blaming this debacle on the state employees.

  108. Juice Box says:

    Nom – regardless of PPACA effects Health Care is a mess and will be for the forceable future. During the 10-year period 1999 to 2009, overall premiums increased 120 percent. Companies absorbed allot but not all and cut benefits.

    What does the next 10 years hold another? Bueller? Bueller? At least 120 percent increase as well.

    I say tear it all down and start over.

  109. Libtard in the City says:

    Will never happen.

    Just like the property tax cap, something huge, but unpublicized will sink this proposal. I’m thinking that Dems will only accept these changes in exchange for a 3-day workweek made up of 4-hour workdays, with paid lunches.

  110. NJGator says:

    Nothing to see here folks. Move on…

    OBAC claims Montclair finances are on ‘disconcerting’ trend

    Montclair’s municipal finances are moving “in a disconcerting direction” and township leaders need to be make major strategic changes, according to a final report issued Monday by a budget advisory committee.

    Buy this photo The latest report by the Operating Budget Advisory Committee [OBAC], which was appointed by the Township Council last year, was once again critical of the local budget process.

    “What OBAC learned through its review is that the finances of Montclair’s municipal operations are trending in a disconcerting direction,” the committee said in its five-page report. “Unless a change in mind set and approach by the town leadership to be far more prudent with the town’s finances and more pro-active in making strategic changes, it is thought that Montclair’s real estate values and financial well-being will continue to suffer.”

    OBAC has issued several reports advising the council to pass a 2011 budget that doesn’t include local property tax increase. The council has postponed voting on the controversial $70.5 million budget three times now

    “OBAC believes that swift and strategic action should be taken by the township leaders to review the overall organizational structure of the municipal operations and on a department by department basis for possible restructuring,” the committee said in its report. “All cost areas and revenue streams should be scrutinized and steps should be taken to minimize costs and maximize revenues; fiscal policies and procedures should be dramatically improved and implemented to ensure prudent and responsible spending; a concerted effort to control and reduce the town’s reliance on debt should be implemented immediately; and more transparency with township spending should be made to show taxpayers how their tax dollars and the township operations are being managed.”

    The committee updated its recommendations on reducing employee-related expenses, the township’s largest cost in both amount and annual increases.

    “The organizational structure of Montclair’s municipal operations should be reviewed for consideration of potential savings in all employee related costs,” the report said. “Employee-related costs and the dramatic increases in such, are draining township resources. Outsourcing substantially all services provided by the Municipal office, restructuring operations and performance-based approaches have been successful in reducing costs in other towns and cities. Montclair’s leadership should consider a study be done to determine the savings that could be attained through this type of approach. This would provide a goal of potential savings for the township, whether such restructuring are implemented or not.”

    If a township department can’t be effectively outsourced or restructured, the township should turn to other alternatives to reduce costs, according to OBAC. That includes reviewing department with multiple employees to figure out whether the work can be done with fewer workers or without all levels of supervision.

    “If this is not feasible, salary levels should be reviewed and if they are above industry standards, demotions and salary reductions should be made,” the report said. “Department with fewer employees should be reviewed to determine whether technology can be used to simplify the work demands. Departments should also be reviewed to determine whether consolidation with other departments could be done. This will reduce the need for the current number of supervisors, administrative and support staff.”

    For departments covered by existing contracts, OBAC said that advance planning was “essential” for future contract renewals.

    “This should include seeking assistance from negotiating experts as well as actuaries to plan out the future costs associated with agreements before sitting down at the negotiating table,” the report said.

    OBAC also claimed that the township is neglecting opportunities to collect non-taxpayer revenue. OBAC brought public attention to the fact that the Montclair Community Pre-K has a $1.6 million loan outstanding from the township and that The Siena is in a dispute with the town over nearly $300,000 in Payment In Lieu Of Taxes [PILOT] money.

    “There have been several examples of weak, and possibly non-existent policies for revenue opportunities,” the report said. “The examples include the town reportedly forgetting to bill for at least one PILOT of agreement in 2010, undercharging for shared services or entering into agreements allowing businesses to be up and running, but not paying fair and appropriate taxes or amounts under PILOT agreements.”

    OBAC also recommended that Township Manager Marc Dashield do a cost assessment for all resolutions and ordinances prior to their approval by the council.

    “This shift would provide extra insight and accountability of all costs impacting the townships budget for the current and future years,” the report said.. “The township’s CFO and OBAC could provide assistance in projecting these costs.”

    OBAC also mentioned Montclair’s outstanding debt, which has been a major concern of the committee.

    “Montclair’s debt costs represented 19 percent of the total appropriations in the 2010 budget,” the report said. “The reliance on debt to fund non-essential capital projects is continuing to increase the township’s debt burden. An increased effort to reduce employee related costs, protect revenue opportunities, and eliminate waste, will help to reduce reliance on continued debt issuances and to ultimately pay down the town’s ‘well above average’ debt burden.”

    OBAC told the council that it will continue to meet on a quarterly basis to update the status of budget and financial related matters,” the report says. adding “if our assistance is desired or new information is made available, more frequent meetings will be held.”

    http://www.northjersey.com/news/123277063_OBAC_claims_Montclair_finances_are_on__disconcerting__trend_.html

  111. Happy Renter says:

    [94] They’re Obama’s tax cuts now.

  112. JoeR (98)-

    I have been threatened with the same sort of thing by my own board.

    I cannot print the response I gave when they first phoned and told me to stand down in my public commentary.

  113. Juice Box says:

    re # 111 – I recently polled all of the teachers I know about what they are doing this Summer. They work across the NJ Public Teaching spectrum from the high end of Millburn to the middle like Secaucus to a brave one who works in Newark. Not a single one is working this summer save the poor bastard in Newark.

    I feel nothing for them when I hear about cuts especially when I heard about the 1/2 day scam they are running because it is now too hot to work.

  114. A.West says:

    Gator,
    Montclair officials went to China to learn financial strategies from Sino-Forest.

  115. Better eat right and get exercise. Pretty soon, only the ultra-rich will be insured.

    Healthcare is a market-driven commodity, not a right.

  116. Sino-Forest could run Montklair better than the autistic monkeys who are currently screwing it into the ground.

  117. Essex says:

    115. Some buildings are literally 90 degrees. Geezus freakin’ christ. There oughta be an IQ test to surf the web.

  118. Juice Box says:

    And Obama want to Help out Greece with their debt financing?

    Lack of buyers may force Treasury to boost rates

    The U.S. Treasury next month will go back to relying on the kindness of strangers like never before to purchase the nation’s burgeoning debts — and taxpayers may have to pay higher interest rates to attract enough foreign investors, analysts say.

    Though a significant rise in interest rates could be toxic for a softening U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve has said it will end its program of purchasing $600 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds as planned on June 30. The Fed is estimated to have bought about 85 percent of Treasury’s securities offerings in the past eight months.

    That leaves the Treasury, which is slated to sell near-record amounts of new debt of about $1.4 trillion this year, without its main suitor and recent source of support, and forces it back into the vagaries of global markets. Among the countries that will have to step forward to prevent a debilitating rise in interest rates are China, Japan and Saudi Arabia — and even hostile nations such as Iran and Venezuela with petrodollars to invest, according to one analysis.

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jun/7/lack-of-buyers-may-force-treasury-to-boost-interes/

  119. Anon E. Moose says:

    Even the banksters know and admit what they are pushing. Noticed on a recent pre-approval letter, intended as a title of the document “POS Conditional Approval Letter…” Everyone needs a POS, don’t they?

  120. A.West says:

    Good allegory for the economic crisis, a tap dancing tragedy:
    http://www.southparkstudios.com/clips/154507/the-tap-tragedy

  121. hughesrep says:

    115

    If some little brat hit his head after passing out the ambulance chansing lawsuits would follow.

  122. Libtard in the City says:

    Apparently, the assembly wants no part of this. I’m not surprised.

  123. Juice Box says:

    re: # 119 – Essex you turd, several of the teachers I polled have AC and still get 1/2 a day.

    I’d wager there was no AC for most of us here when we were in the K-12 programs, we sweated it out and stayed in class no such thing as a half hot day. Best they had was window fans. It is another negotiated excuse for time off.

  124. NJGator says:

    “Our sister cities and other international initiatives help us maintain a global perspective on community life,” says Montclair Mayor, Jerry Fried. “We can learn a lot from both our commonalities and differences.”

    Despite their substantial traveling, the Russian delegates were able to sit down with Mayor Fried, the Chief of Police and Fire, and the planning board to discuss the future partnerships between the cities, and a possible visit to Cherepovets by Mayor Fried in June.

    Optimistically, Kushinnikov states, “I hope my visit will set the stage for collaboration. I do hope we will strengthen our relationship and the mayor will make a reciprocal visit to our city.”

    http://www.baristanet.com/2011/06/who-knew-montclair-had-a-sister-city/

  125. NJGator says:

    Alvarez is making ’em work in the Montclair Public Schools. Although he did give parents the ok to sign their kids out if “conditions pose personal concerns.”

  126. NJGator says:

    A. West – Apparently Mayor Fried may take a road trip to Russia. We have a sister city! Delegates are visiting now! I wonder if we’ll have passed a municipal budget before he goes.

    http://www.baristanet.com/2011/06/who-knew-montclair-had-a-sister-city/

  127. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Chifi – comments are just as laughable as their compensation. Seriously if you have it so tough in the public sector, join us on the private side you’ll find religion real quick regarding compensation and what is fair. Get a clue leeches

  128. Only benefit in the private sector is you get to keep your job if you bust your ass, don’t talk back and don’t complain. In the end, you’re schtupped anyway because some dengue fever-riddled peasant half a world away will do your job for 12 cents an hour.

    90 degrees in a school? Sounds like 3/4 of the school days from K-12 when I was growing up in Memphis.

    Tell these kids and teachers to nut up.

  129. gator (127)-

    People in that town need to get serious about assassinating this money incinerator. What a useless piece of gristle.

  130. Shore Guy says:

    Ozzie plus no gaga sounds like a crowd pleaser to me.

  131. Essex says:

    The “only” benefit I have seen in private sector work is a chance to make some very nice money if you are in the right place at the right time and/or can contribute to the success of said enterprise. Even in a down economy there are still plenty of people making some serious coin. Believe that.

  132. joyce says:

    132
    when comparing private to public… it always seems like we’re comparing entry level teacher salaries to wall street CEO’s
    yeah, that’s apples to apples

    as many have said countless times, if it’s so terrible in the public sector today, tomorrow, and even if it’s getting worse… if you think you can do better in the private sector, why not try?

  133. joyce says:

    as for the public pensions, someone on this board said this a while ago and i think its worth repeating

    if the option was put on the table to either continue the status quo (raising employee contributions, declining benefits, and the state (taxpayers) MAYBE making their contribution) OR the state pays all unpaid contributions from the past plus whatever the plan earned over that time and then let the unions control it on their own with no taxpayer backstop

    they would never agree to the latter

  134. Essex says:

    133. The teacher in my household makes $65k — 8 years in that — The Pharma Exec. makes $250k (with bonus) — 8 years in that firm. Any questions?

  135. joyce says:

    how do you propose to fix this injustice?

  136. joyce says:

    fyi, do you know how many people in my firm (financial services) who make under 90K and have been there 5-10 years… i think the director in his 40s makes barely over 100

  137. Essex says:

    136. I don’t intend to fix anything. But one interesting point was recently brought out by a study from McKinsey, they investigated “what it would take to get top students to teach” the result was simple. A $60k starting salary and a salary after a number of years to $150k. So money talks. You want quality? You gotta pay for it. Me, I will just send my one and only kid to a private snob factory the day that I feel her classes are not working for her at the local public academy. I personally could care less what people make or even if they are out of work. I’ve been in the workforce for almost 20 years and seen a lot — everyone makes their own choices. Some good some bad. But you only have yourself to blame for any level of unhappiness.

  138. Essex says:

    137. There are bottom feeders in every industry. Every business has loser firms.

  139. A.West says:

    Shocking, Essex. Looks like teachers are so poor they’re submitting to disgusting domestic/sexual slavery arrangements with their capitalist exploiters. Is there something the unions can do to solve the problem? Like maybe merging the pharma employees union with the teacher’s union and putting everyone on the same scale?

    At my company, some new analyst is going to be hired at a way higher rate than the assistant clerk who has been here for many more years!

    Maybe if the government just mandated everybody gets paid according to their age, or maybe their need, all this unfairness would disappear.

  140. Essex says:

    What a fruitcake.

  141. sas3 says:

    Nom,

    “Fabius, sas3, and schab: call BS on Mckinsey, you called it on me.”

    I won’t speak for others, but I hold you to a higher standard than Mckinsey.
    In fact, I think I having your name in the same sentence as those corp-wh0res is an insult to you.

  142. Shore Guy says:

    Clot,

    A little wine wisdom imparted by a former band-aide/groupie:

    “With wine, it really comes down to two choices — spit or swallow.”

    I nearly spit out my coffee all over the place.

  143. joyce says:

    essex,
    is it possible that if there was a shortage in skilled teachers then the compensation offered would increase to attract talent? but perhaps the union salary structure mandated that lower salary is to blame…

  144. Essex says:

    144. What exactly is wrong with you?

  145. Essex says:

    145. I am not trying to figure it out. Teaching is a low risk/low reward career. There is also almost no barrier to entry. And yes, a lot of folks lined up to do the work. The fact is that there is lots of money to be made in the private sector.

  146. Shore Guy says:

    clot,

    Not cottage cheese, honey.

  147. Shore Guy says:

    Sastry,

    I was never for the Bush tax cuts. I would have preferred to continue the path from Clinton and pay down the debt. That said, as the tax cuts are a fact of life, I am all for cutting to the bone before raising any additional revenue. If we give congress additional money before making deep cuts they will just not step up to the plate and make the cuts necessary to protect our fiscal condition.

  148. Happy Renter says:

    [135] “The teacher in my household makes $65k — 8 years in that — The Pharma Exec. makes $250k (with bonus) — 8 years in that firm. Any questions?”

    Yes I have some questions.

    1. How awesome is it to have off all summer, every summer, with the possibility for weeks-long (or even months-long) extended travel?

    2. How awesome is it to have a untouchable holiday schedule that includes locked-in vacations for every holiday, along with a week for Christmas and spring break?

    3. How awesome is it to have a super-generous benefits package for your health care etc.?

    4. How awesome is it to essentially have ZERO accountability for job performance, and to know that each year that goes by your already-substantial invulnerability to layoffs gets better and better no matter how good, or how poor, of a job you do?

    5. How awesome is it to make a lesson plan for the first few years and then know you can milk that same tired old lesson plan for the next 50 years of essentially guaranteed income?

    6. How awesome is to have an utterly predictable work schedule that gets you home hours before dinner and allows you to work a “full-time job” (as to why it’s in quotes, see question #1) that’s aligned with your kids’ school schedule so as to avoid any after-school childcare expenses?

    7. How awesome is it to have a job that cannot be off-shored and therefore eliminates that professional risk?

    8. How awesome is it to never have to travel for work (unless you’re on a field trip to Washington, DC)?

    9. How awesome is it to not have to carry around a blackberry or iPhone or answer email pretty much 24/7, 365 days a year?

    10. How much do you think that teacher-wife could make if she entered the private sector right now?

    From personal experience, I know pretty well what the life of a pharma exec and the life of a public school teacher involve.

  149. Shore Guy says:

    Essex,

    Other than being middle aged and paying too many taxes, nothing to speak of. What about you?

  150. Shore Guy says:

    “I recently polled all of the teachers I know ”

    John? John?? Paging Dr. John.

  151. Essex says:

    1. Excellent. Even better with two incomes.

    2. Darn nice.

    3. Meh. Not that impressive really.

    4. That is a myth.

    5. Another myth.

    6. Not too shabby.

    7. Kinds cool.

    8. Neato.

    9. Meh.

    10. My guess would be ‘if’ they went into marketing maybe $75k or so. If they did sales maybe $100k and so on —

  152. Shore Guy says:

    Stu,

    I wonder what would happen if one were to organize a week of massive rallies at the statehouse with one simple message “A real cap, with no pension/benefit cost exceptions.” These are two of the biggest cost drivers and it is absurd to speak of a cap that excludes these sorts of things. I think NY is looking at such a loophole-filled “cap.”

  153. There will be no caps, no exceptions, no breaks. Folks, all levels of gubmint are at war with us, and they will not stop until they have broken us and rendered us all insolvent and completely dependent upon whatever crumbs they choose to throw our way.

  154. Happy Renter says:

    [153] Thanks for playing.

    #4 is not a myth — what job accountability does your teacher-wife have? I will grant you that the spectrum running from zero to minimal accountability somewhat differs between grade levels and subjects, but it’s all laughable. Why else are teacher’s unions so dead-set against merit pay?

    #5 is not a myth — I know for a fact it’s been done and is being done, I’ll leave it at that.

    As for the rest, well, the answers speak for themselves. 65K plus all the cushy perks of being a public school teacher with 8 years of experience is worth more than 100K. It’s worth far more than 100K. Teachers are overpaid, like many people, but unlike many people teachers are paid by the public tax dollars. And they never seem to stop crying about how tough they have it, which is BS.

    Any questions?

  155. Essex says:

    yeah one….do you consider yourself well educated or at the very least well informed?

  156. Essex says:

    also might want to check your reading comprehension or just skim back over my posts.

  157. joyce says:

    most liberal arts degrees (teachers and many others) aren’t worth anything in the private sector

    marketing ,sales, … B.S.

  158. joyce says:

    bachelors science (not bull sh*t)

  159. Essex says:

    159. After your first or second job most people don’t really care what your undergrad degree was in. They are more interested in what you did for your previous employer. Now say something intelligent, because up until now you sound like a reject from nj.com

  160. joyce says:

    ok then, leaving college with a B.A. will not land you a good entry level job in marketing… leaving college with a B.A. and then teaching for a few years will not land you a good job in marketing, probably hurt your chances

  161. Essex says:

    It’s been a long, long time since I was a recent grad so I will have to take your word on that one.

  162. willwork4beer says:

    #144 Shore

    Its a good thing JJ’s not around.

    Shore Guy says:
    June 8, 2011 at 5:08 pm

    “… it really comes down to two choices —spit or swallow.”

  163. Neanderthal Economist says:

    ” The teacher in my household makes $65k —8 years in that —The Pharma Exec. makes $250k (with bonus) —8 years in that firm. Any questions?”

    Comparing an executive in the private sector to a kindergarten teacher in the public sector is really quite interesting but why don’t we compare the pharma executive to the $300k plus perks superintendant? And since when does firm tenure determine pay in the private sector?

  164. Happy Renter says:

    [157] Well enough to know what a racket the teacher unions have going, yes.

    [158] I don’t pay any particular attention to your posts, but I just chimed in when I read this “Teaching is a low risk/low reward career.” Per the points above, teaching is not a low reward career.

  165. D says:

    Higher accountability is SO on its way. Just take a look at what is happening in places like Maryland & Washington. Plus tenure changes are coming…there are two bills in route right now addressing tenure and evaluation. *Something* will happen.

    Also, who do you think wants the 1/2 days? ~*The Parents~*~ Administration is meeting not only their demands BUT it is 100+ degrees in classrooms. It is inhumane to CHILDREN.

  166. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Many working parents prefer full days for their children.

  167. D says:

    then they have never been in one of those classrooms, NE.

    Also, many times in these situations, the teachers do stay the whole day even if students are dismissed. They just find somewhere cooler to go.

  168. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [143] sas3

    “I won’t speak for others, but I hold you to a higher standard than Mckinsey.
    In fact, I think I having your name in the same sentence as those corp-wh0res is an insult to you.”

    Thanks, I think. I still don’t believe Mckinsey’s number will come to pass, in part because a lot can happen between now and 2014. Also, the point was made that health plans are being cut now, and were cut before PPACA/HCERA, so how much of the 30% or more would happen anyway?

    Still, approx. one third is a shocking number to me. I was spitballing when I came up with much less, only because cutting benefits is like cutting salary or headcount–you only do it if you have to. Further, if one third of employees are told that their plans are going away, and they are being transferred to the government plan, well, I guess we understand now why it was made operative after the next presidential election, don’t we?

    Hobo may get his armed insurrection after all.

  169. joyce says:

    169 – was it inhumane 10-15 years ago? how many stories were there of kids passing out and dying on hot days?

  170. House Whine says:

    Teacher friend of mine works in a NJ middle school. Her room is the hottest room on the floor. She isn’t allowed to have any fan in her room as the students “might injure themselves”. I kid you not. Teaching a room full of 13 yr olds. with no air and no fan cannot possibly be conducive to learning anyway.

    And I suppose there are plenty of teachers who aren’t dedicated after getting tenure but the ones I know well do spend hours in the evening and on the wk.end doing work. Maybe they aren’t tied to their blackberries but they are committed to their jobs. If you want some perspective on where we are going with teaching in the country rent the movie, “Waiting for Superman” (2010 documentary).

  171. sas3 says:

    House #172… I would never be able to teach young kids — I’ve seen some grad students and even medical students have would be a pain to teach to. Joyce was dismissive about “kindergarten” teachers, but I’ve seen what the teachers at my daughter’s day care do every day, and I am impressed by their effort and dedication.

    The war on teachers is a sign of times. No one complained (or complains even now) when code monkey contractors make tonnes of money doing some “software configuration work” for government, and their body shopper bosses keep even bigger chunks of the billed amounts. Everyone thinks they can teach math to 7th graders, and many people are scared of buzzword laden technology…

    How many people here have applied to any teaching positions ever in their lives? Oh, teaching assistantships while in grad school don’t count…

  172. sas3 says:

    Shore, how about a “matching” type of effort? For every $x cuts in budget, $y will be raised through increases in taxes.

    If my finances were in deep trouble, I will cut expenses and will try to bring in more money by doing additional work — pump gas, be a night watchman, whatever it takes.. Cutting expenses simply will not be enough.

    I think may be the PTB think that the deficit is not a big deal, and just playing a political game. What else would explain the reluctance to even look at cuts to the biggest pieces of budget? They don’t even want to touch subsidies to oil companies. Or, may be the end of the empire is in sight?

  173. 3b says:

    #159 Totally not true Give me a good Liberal Arts )History/English, that can think and write anytime. Training them is easy.

  174. sas3 says:

    Nom, wrt health care, we’ll start seeing data from VT in a few years down the line. The big question is whether most of US resemble VT or will it resemble AZ?

  175. D says:

    171~ global warming ;) It didn’t get so dreadful when school was still in session 10-15 years ago!

    Just b/c someone went to school doesn’t mean they understand school today or can teach. I think a lot of people forget that.

  176. sas3 says:

    Joyce #159, is your dismissiveness of entire fields of study supported by some of your spectacular accomplishments?

    Some of the best computer guys I’ve heard of came from music degrees. Someone that is really good with History will probably do very well in Political sciences or law. With respect to people that are really good at English — I have heard of so few that there aren’t enough data…

  177. plume (170)-

    Not only will I get my armed insurrection, I will also be able to speak to a few well-placed civil service drones and jack the body count in proportion to how well I can fire them up.

    I’m gonna watch the Second Amerikan Revolution from a lawn chair.

  178. Don’t need no diploma to empty an M-16.

  179. We really need to rid the planet of 25 to 50mm or so.

  180. sastry (178)-

    The only skills that matter anymore are the ability to kill and the ability to steal in a sophisticated fashion.

    Anyone untrained or untalented in either of the above is potential roadkill.

  181. “Jews wait for the Lord, Protestants sing hymns to him, Catholics say mass and eat him.”
    — Walker Percy (Love in the Ruins)

  182. Al Mossberg says:

    U.S. Is Intensifying a Secret Campaign of Yemen Airstrikes

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/09/world/middleeast/09intel.html?_r=1&hp

    Saudi spending 7k per citizen to avoide overthrow of kingdom.

    Egypt, Lybia, Yemen, Syria, Bahrain, then Saudi Arabia. WW 3 is going to be some real doomish entertainment. Of course the fiscal calamity will be blamed on the war.

  183. Pat says:

    Down here…yeah, MD, PG/Mont. Co, the principals and admins are now retiring who previously would never give up their chairs.

    Frozen accruals was all it took.

    What does that tell you about the value of benefits v. pay?

  184. Shore Guy says:

    Sastry,

    I would have no problem with a 3:1 ratio of cuts to new taxes.

  185. Shore Guy says:

    “What else would explain the reluctance to even look at cuts to the biggest pieces of budget? ”

    Pensions. Pensions — or, rather, the quest to secure then pad one — lie at the heart of all that iw wrong about our current political situation. if we did not make elected office a career with a pension, we would see more representatives who are willing to actually solve problems.

  186. Pat says:

    sas3, I won’t tell you what I do. Maybe if I reveal that I rent in MD you won’t weight my opinion like the re guy who cares if someone lives in a 200k house in S. Jersey. WTF? Maple Shade is like Cherry Hill, dude.

    Do people who know things HAVE to live in a 500k POS cape in NNJ to get respect?

    Anyway, you don’t have to teach to know that teaching is out of control. Complete total global thermonuclear is necessary.

    I’m going all clot/hobo here and revealing that I spend a lot of time in both private industry, government contracting and volunteering in schools.

    We seriously need to bring back the old nuns with the rulers and get rid of the “masters equivalents” and just teach the kids. And also stop looking at placement studies…like the one that just said my county’s graduation rates are the best. No shit, Sherlock, it’s highly educated parents. sucking on the gubmint teat here.. not the teachers. Why are demographics never compared in these frustrating comparisons.

  187. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Pat “Why are demographics never compared in these frustrating comparisons.” because that would require admitting that throwing money at Newark, Patterson & Camden is not going to work.

  188. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Shore 187 because then you might run to do some good as the hacks we have now wouldn’t be interested.

  189. Sean Pearson says:

    There have been recent reports that the foreclosures added to the market from Bank of America are about to increase dramatically in Oregon. I would expect to see the same in all markets.

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