“Homeowners need to price their homes right or they won’t sell”

From the Chicago Tribune:

Pricing a home to sell in today’s market

During the housing boom, many real estate agents found it extraordinarily tough, if not impossible, to come up with even ballpark asking prices for their listings.

“Values were increasing at a pace we had never seen in this area,” said John Duffy of Duffy Real Estate in the Philadelphia area.

For four-plus decades, real estate agents had been used to gradual price appreciation of 3 to 6 percent a year, “and then the boom came along, and we were seeing a much faster and higher appreciation, which made it very difficult to price properties,” Duffy said.

The results: Multiple bids, and prices exceeding what homeowners were asking.

Today’s market is very different. And, Realtors say, the way houses are priced has changed dramatically.

“Homeowners need to price their homes right or they won’t sell,” said Art Herling, Philadelphia-area vice president of Long & Foster real estate company. “Buyers are extremely savvy and cautious, and, as one builder said, ‘It’s hip to be conservative.'”

You must be able to “defend” the asking price, Duffy said. One way is to research similar homes that have sold in the past few months in a neighborhood or town. Also, compare the house with others on the market in the same area.

“It is important for the Realtor and homeowner to be totally honest with the comparison, and make sure you are comparing apples with apples,” Duffy said.

Active listings “will give the seller a bird’s-eye view of what the competition is doing, and what he or she is up against, as a comparative tool,” said John Badalamenti of Prudential Fox & Roach in Wayne, N.J.

Added Laurie R. Phillips of Prudential Fox & Roach in Philadelphia: “When a new buyer is out looking at homes, they will compare the prices of what they are seeing.”

Days on the market is another important factor to consider, Duffy said. If a similar property has been listed for a while, it’s a good indication the house is overpriced.

Looking back at sales from a more robust market is irrelevant, said Joanne Davidow, vice president and office manager at Prudential Fox & Roach in Philadelphia.

“Sellers may be tempted to price a house with what they need, but it is important to price at a realistic range,” Davidow said.

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229 Responses to “Homeowners need to price their homes right or they won’t sell”

  1. grim says:

    From the NY Times:

    Signs of Improvement in Age-Restricted Market

    STARTING in 2009, the bottom fell out of the age-restricted housing market in New Jersey, as people 55 and older made the decision to “age in place” rather than try to sell their longtime homes in an uncertain real estate environment.

    But lately some older buyers are returning to the age-restricted market, taking advantage of big discounts, free upgrades and low mortgage interest rates. The analyst Jeffrey G. Otteau said there was about a decade’s worth of inventory for these properties in New Jersey. (Late in 2009, state law was changed to allow the lifting of age restrictions at many projects still in the pipeline.)

    April and Bob Giardina of Edison decided to buy a two-bedroom condominium at the Savannah in Westfield, N.J., restricted to people 55 and older, even though they are 54 and 53, respectively, and still own a large house in Edison. The couple declined to say how much they paid for the condo.

    “We can’t legally spend the night at our place until my next birthday,” Mrs. Giardina said about the couple’s new 2,800-square-foot apartment, which has a terrace and balcony. “But we visit it.”

    “The other night we went over there, walked to the really cool wine-and-beer store in downtown Westfield, then went over to Williams-Sonoma and bought two Pilsner glasses, and came back to have dinner outside,” she said.

    The Giardinas have a daughter who will not graduate from high school for two years, and Mrs. Giardina said they did not plan to put their Edison house on the market right now.

    “We didn’t want to lose the chance to buy this unit, though,” Mrs. Giardina said. “We think we got a very good deal, and the builder will finish it exactly the way we want. There were only a few units left, so we did it.”

  2. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    US homeownership rate could fall further

    The U.S. homeownership rate could fall another one to two percentage points if credit conditions and the economy remain in the same crisis mode exhibited in 2009, the Mortgage Banker’s Association said Thursday.

    The present-day homeownership rate of 66.4% is in line with historic norms after falling from a 2004 peak of 69.2%, the MBA Research Institution for Housing America concluded in a new study.

    The report says the 2004 peak was driven by access to cheap credit and a willingness on the part of more buyers in their 20s and 30s to assume higher levels of debt and financial risk when acquiring homes.

    Post-crash homeownership rates are now at 2000 levels, the report said.

    The data was compiled by Professor Stuart Gabriel of UCLA’s Anderson School and Stuart Rosenthal of Syracuse University.

    “The question of why homeownership rates are falling now is really a question of why they were so high during the middle of the last decade,” said Gabriel. “From the late 1960s to the mid-1990s, U.S. homeownership rates were relatively stable between 64 and 65 percent. Our findings suggest that the boom and bust in homeownership rates over the last decade was driven in part by an initial relaxation of credit standards followed by a tightening of credit with the onset of the 2007 financial crash.”

    The report says homeownership rates from this point forward are largely dependent on consumers and the overall economy.

  3. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  4. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Home Prices in New York’s Brooklyn Rise on Demand at New Condo Complexes

    Home prices in Brooklyn, New York’s most populous borough, climbed in the second quarter, led by demand for condominiums in new developments as affluent buyers entered the market.

    The median price of newly built condos that sold in the period was $535,000, a 9.9 percent jump from a year earlier, New York appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate said today in a joint report. The median price of all Brooklyn condos, co-ops and one- to three-family houses increased 3.7 percent to $480,000.

    “We’ve recaptured almost half of the values from the credit crunch, but it doesn’t mean the market is rising,” Jonathan Miller, president and chief executive officer of Miller Samuel, said in a telephone interview. “I’m not characterizing this as a recovery, but stability.”

    Almost three years after the real estate crash tightened credit and sent property values tumbling, deals at new developments in Brooklyn are increasing. New condos, which generally attract wealthier buyers, made up almost a quarter of all Brooklyn home sales in the three months through June, up from 14 percent last year and the largest share since Miller’s company began tracking the data in 2008, he said.

    “There’s been a more affluent shift in the market,” Miller said. “We’re going on three years since the credit crunch, so maybe it’s a sign, at least in the upper end, of more confidence.”

    New-condo sales totaled 478 for the second quarter, a 76 percent increase from a year earlier, according to Miller Samuel and Prudential.

  5. grim says:

    From the Philly Inquirer:

    Home Economics: Web’s house-hunting sites not always accurate

    In the old days, if you were looking for a new place to live, you picked up the local newspaper, looked at the real estate classifieds, put on comfortable shoes or gassed up the car, and began a house-to-house search.

    The Internet has made the job easier, at least on your feet. In short order, you can look at all kinds of sales and rental listings just about anywhere – around the block or across the country.

    Given their promise of information from all over the place, how reliable are websites such as Zillow, Trulia, HomeGain, and a growing number of others?

    A colleague posed the question after seeing that his house in Abington was listed online by its Glenside zip code – which is shared by portions of Cheltenham and Springfield Townships – and that the house was described as being in the Jenkintown School District, which covers only homes in the borough of Jenkintown.

    Other examples of local inaccuracies: One of the sites suggested that Haddon Township schools were the closest to a house in Haddonfield – which, of course, has a school district of its own.

    Real estate agents take issue with these website flaws, as well as with the values the sites place on houses, for sale or not. (They also offer price information about homes already sold, for example.)

    When asked whether he recommended these sites to consumers, Kit Anstey of Prudential Fox & Roach in Chester County said, “Absolutely not. Very misleading.”

    But Mark Wade of Prudential Fox & Roach in Center City said the real estate websites did have some value.

    “I think they play a very helpful part in house and condo hunting,” he said. “A lot of information is available at a potential buyer’s fingertips. [Trulia and Zillow] consolidate the information and are both fairly easy to navigate.”

    Yet Wade added that he thought estimates of value offered on some websites, such as Zillow’s “Zestimates,” were unreliable, saying that using the formula that determine them “is akin to throwing arrows at a dartboard. You rarely know where it is going to land.”

  6. grim says:

    Mega lowball!

    From the WSJ:

    Spelling Home Brings a Mere $85 Million

    A home listed for a record $150 million has sold—at a steep discount.

    The 57,000-square-foot Los Angeles mansion built by the late television producer Aaron Spelling closed Thursday for $85 million, or 43% off its asking price. The buyer is 22-year-old Petra Ecclestone, whose father is the British billionaire and Formula One racing boss Bernie Ecclestone.

    Candy Spelling, the seller and Mr. Spelling’s widow, had been one of a select group of wealthy homeowners who sought to hold firm on their lofty asking prices despite the housing market’s sharp decline. That group has steadily dwindled. Ms. Spelling’s estate has been shown since 2008 and was officially listed in March 2009.

    Though the sale price was significantly below Ms. Spelling’s asking price, it is one of the highest ever paid in the U.S. for a single-family home. Earlier this year, Russian billionaire Yuri Milner set what is believed to be the U.S. record for a single-family home by paying $100 million for a French chateau-style mansion in Silicon Valley’s Los Altos Hills.

    Known as “the Manor,” the Spelling mansion sits on five acres in Holmby Hills and has 14 bedrooms, 27 bathrooms, a bowling alley, beauty salon, gift-wrapping rooms and parking for 100 cars. It also sports a double staircase inspired by “Gone With the Wind.”

  7. Winslow says:

    “…Spelling, an ugly son of a bitch, and his hag wife, claimed to have done the nasty in every room of the house…” Candy, known to the area as a three-hole gal, admitted that her disgusting habits and those of her hideous offspring has tainted the home in the eye of prospective buyers. In future, her realtor said, please refrain from buggery in the breakfast nook. (snip)

  8. me@my.other.job says:

    Re (7)

    NOW I understand why Carl Icahn is buying Clorox at over $70/share…..

    He must read this blog, too….

    (reaching for retina bleach…)

    sl

  9. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Brooklyn is the new Manhattan.

  10. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    The demographics aren’t going to do anything to help housing prices either. All those baby boomers getting older looking to downsize – completely deflationary. Upside is the kids can live at home until they are 50.

  11. gary says:

    More news from the economic front: spoke to a friend of mine last night who owns a limo service. He just let 3 people go as business is getting progressively worse. He also says new tariffs and licenses are added every year making it harder and harder to show a profit.

    This, on top of a discussion with a cousin a few days ago who’s a firemen and had a side construction business for many years. He sold his work van as lack of work and additional regulations, fees and endless permits have killed his business. Green shoots…

    Just saying.

  12. Anon E. Moose says:

    Re: [5];

    Yet Wade added that he thought estimates of value offered on some websites, such as Zillow’s “Zestimates,” were unreliable, saying that using the formula that determine them “is akin to throwing arrows at a dartboard. You rarely know where it is going to land.”

    I guess Wade plays darts drunk, apparently the same way he shills used houses. I have little trouble hitting what I’m aiming at on a dartboard, including the double ring (~1cm wide) to open or bull’s eye (~2cm dia.) to close. The ignorant and inept frequently describe superior competence as ‘luck’.

  13. Shore Guy says:

    “The ignorant and inept frequently describe superior competence as ‘luck’.”

    Or as an unfair advantage.

  14. Shore Guy says:

    “Homeowners need to price their homes right or they won’t sell”

    In a market economy? Really?

  15. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    What gold digger named Candy isn’t a “three hole gal”

  16. me@my.other.job says:

    Moose, 13 Shore, 14

    Nothing more that Dunning Kruger effect.

    Link to this ugly disorder is here

    “Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge.”

    – Charles Darwin

    sl

  17. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    Default rate down 60% in first half of 2011. Oh Withney you three hole gal, time to face the music

    Rare Events

    Municipal defaults are rare. Moody’s Investors Service said in a study released in February 2010 that the 10-year average cumulative rate in the municipal market was 0.09 percent from 1970 to 2009 for the securities it ranks, compared with 11.06 percent for corporate debt. Most were concentrated among nonprofit health-care and housing projects. Just three were general-obligation bonds, out of 54 in all, Moody’s said.

  18. Confused In NJ says:

    “Candy is Dandy”, but “Liquor is Quicker”!

  19. 3b says:

    #9seif Re: The last line as listed below. CLot/hoHo/There goes meat ahs been saying that for some time now.

    The bottom line: Despite intermittent signs of recovery, the housing market may be in the midst of a slump that could last a generation.

  20. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    Poker in the front, Liquor in the rear.

    Confused In NJ says:
    July 15, 2011 at 8:33 am

    “Candy is Dandy”, but “Liquor is Quicker”!

  21. Orion says:

    Closing went smooth on beach house.

    It’s in Asbury Park, classic Victorian totally updated/renovated. Been looking for something like this for six years but prices were either too high or the house needed major renovations. Owner was anxious to sell, which really helped us during negotiations.

    Lender wanted to know just about every detail of our financial life. They were extremely careful and made sure all t’s were crossed, etc.

    Closing was supposed to have occurred two weeks ago but was delayed to to state requirements of bulk sales tax. Our attorney dropped the ball on this one. It’s the purchaser’s responsibility to file for a clearance of ALL taxes owed to the state. Look up N.J.S.A. 54:50-38. Expanded law by Corzzzine on 2007.

    The broader view, from my perspective, is that sellers who really want to sell are willing to negotiate. Prices are still coming down at the Monmouth shore. Taxes are high and that’s one of the reasons houses aren’t selling. We are going to file for tax appeal shortly.

    New breakfast place and steakhouse opened on Cookman Ave. Nice.

    Meeting w/locksmith. Later.

  22. yo'me says:

    Why should I worry of an armageddon,when after all that was promised,the ones benefitting is the top 10% of the population.And now they are calling for cuts on everything I paid for.We should let everything fall and let it fix itself.A default is not a bad idea.

    Why Americans don’t buy the Armageddon talk
    Washington is trying its hardest to sell Americans on the idea that failure to raise the debt-ceiling will be the end of the world.

    The rest of the country doesn’t seem to be buying the idea.

    Wall Street’s not buying the debt-ceiling Armageddon talk it because they can’t believe Washington would be so stupid. (Or that their lobbyists can’t pry some deal out of their friends.)

    Main Street’s not buying it because for a lot of Americans Armageddon’s already arrived.

    For millions of unemployed who’ve been out of work for more than 99 weeks, Armageddon is here.

    For millions of the unemployed over 50 whose hopes of another job, let alone a comparable one, are gone, Armageddon is here.

    For millions who’ve lost their homes, Armageddon is here.

    It can always get worse, of course. But for those suffering in such difficult circumstances already, there’s no more bandwidth for fear and worry.

    Even for those still employed, the notion of another $1 trillion in taxes/borrowing to solve another crises, is just so much noise.

    They were told that $700 billion in TARP funds would fix things.

    They were told $800 billion in stimulus would fix things.

    They were told $4 billion in cash for clunkers would fix things.

    They were told Obamacare would fix things.

    They were told Quantitative Easing would fix things.

    They were told Quantitative Easing 2 would fix things.

    Now they’re being told that failure to pass a hike in the debt ceiling will make things really bad.

    Maybe that’s why a Rasmussen poll out Thursday found that 55% of voters oppose including tax hikes in a deal to raise the debt ceiling, while only 34% approve of the idea.

    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2011/07/14/why-americans-arent-buying-the-debt-ceiling-armageddon-talk/

  23. Al Mossberg says:

    22.

    Orion,

    Make sure you pack something to defend yourself with if you decide to go outside after the sun goes down.

  24. Shore Guy says:

    Orion,

    Are you up in the 6th-8th Ave. area or south of Sunset?

  25. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    If anyone is interested Pats tickets go on sale at ten am. Good deal at face and if no game they just refund 100%. Jets and Giants both play up there on Sunday 4:15pm games

    http://www.ticketmaster.com/event/010046CFA0FC8589?artistid=805980&majorcatid=10004&minorcatid=8

    Week 05
    New York Jets
    Sun, 10/09 at 4:15 PM EDT
    Home:
    Gillette Stadium
    • Week 09
    •New York Giants
    • Sun, 11/06 at 4:15 PM EST
    • Home:
    • Gillette Stadium

  26. Al Mossberg says:

    New CA state law requires g_y history in textbooks

    And you wonder why I want to eliminate the public education system.

    “Public schools in California will be required to teach students about the contributions of l_sbian, g_y, b_sexual and transgender Americans starting Jan. 1 after Gov. Jerry Brown on Thursday signed a controversial bill to add the topic to the social sciences curriculum.

    Textbooks now must include information on the role of LGBT Americans, as well as Americans with disabilities, though California’s budget crisis has delayed the purchasing of new books until at least 2015.”
    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2011/07/15/MNL61KAHVQ.DTL

  27. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    So Orion you and your domestic partner are helping to regentrify the beach wasteland? Agree with whoever said it pack some heat and invest in a good security system.

    Wine is fine but Whiskey’s quicker

  28. Anon E. Moose says:

    SL [17];

    Bad Link! Malware. YMMV, but I’ve got our IT contractor disinfecting my office computer right now based on something that trojaned in from that web-page. No accusation, just a warning to the peeps.

  29. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [23] yome

    post of the week

  30. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [26] JJ

    Buy tix for you me, and our buds. You can wear your NY wear, and I’ll wear the Flying Elvis. And I will show you how we tailgated in Foxboro for years at the old stadium.

  31. me@my.other.job says:

    Moose,

    Sorry bout that! – running Norton now to see if it did anything here.

    You can simply google “Dunning Kruger” and there are dozens of examples/explanations of it.

    sl

  32. BC Bob says:

    Empire State Index negative. No need to worry, all temporary factors; attributed to flooding, tornadoes, transitory inflation, rioting in Greece and Man U’s, US exhibition schedule.

  33. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [151] [prior thread] JJ

    Sounds as if you agree, in part, with my observations. Agree that HNW individuals are buying bonds, not funds, and about quality issues (though in NJ, firetruck bonds tend to be firetruck notes, constantly refi’ed until a bond gets floated).

    Given some of the other comments about late, hot, money, I wonder if all the low-hanging fruit has been picked? I want to put about 250K into individual munis but I am concerned that I am too late to the party, and don’t know the second thing about picking decent bonds.

  34. Shore Guy says:

    Vee haf vays, and don’t care about that stink’n 5th Amendment thingy:

    http://news.cnet.com/8301-31921_3-20078312-281/doj-we-can-force-you-to-decrypt-that-laptop/

    The Colorado prosecution of a woman accused of a mortgage scam will test whether the government can punish you for refusing to disclose your encryption passphrase.

    The Obama administration has asked a federal judge to order the defendant, Ramona Fricosu, to decrypt an encrypted laptop that police found in her bedroom during a raid of her home.

    snip

  35. BC (34)-

    Don’t be surprised to see “for sale” signs on all of ManU’s stuff…including the players.

    The Glazers are tapped. Look for a Dubai/Abu Dhabi type to take over the whole mess pretty soon.

    Same goes for Barca, Real Madrid, etc. This may be the year that the super clubs all go bust.

  36. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [17] SL

    “‘In the modern world the stupid are c0cksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”

    Full of doubt? By that standard, I am a fcuking supergenius. But wait, if I think that, it means I am, in fact, a m0ron. I’m soooooo confused!!!!!!!!!

  37. Shore Guy says:

    Freaking unvelievable DoJ. This is nuts, Tovarich Stalin must be proud:

    “To the U.S. Justice Department, though, the requested court order represents a simple extension of prosecutors’ long-standing ability to assemble information that could become evidence during a trial. The department claims:

    “‘Public interests will be harmed absent requiring defendants to make available unencrypted contents in circumstances like these. Failing to compel Ms. Fricosu amounts to a concession to her and potential criminals (be it in child exploitation, national security, terrorism, financial crimes or drug trafficking cases) that encrypting all inculpatory digital evidence will serve to defeat the efforts of law enforcement officers to obtain such evidence through judicially authorized search warrants, and thus make their prosecution impossible.’

    “Prosecutors stressed that they don’t actually require the passphrase itself, meaning Fricosu would be permitted to type it in and unlock the files without anyone looking over her shoulder. They say they want only the decrypted data and are not demanding ‘the password to the drive, either orally or in written form.”‘

    Read more: http://news.cnet.com/8301-31921_3-20078312-281/doj-we-can-force-you-to-decrypt-that-laptop/#ixzz1SBPARKb8

  38. Juice Box says:

    Orion has been looking in Asbury for at least 4 years.

    http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/12/11/the-end-of-an-asbury-rebirth/

  39. Shore Guy says:

    “They say they want only the decrypted data and are not demanding ‘the password to the drive”

    Yea, because keeping the password private is really what is important to people who encrypt data, not the date itself. Idiots!

  40. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    yo’me,

    You mean to tell me you stopped believing the boys who cried wolf?

  41. JJ says:

    Trouble is in panic people sold off GO’s, pre-refunded bonds and high coupon callable bonds at par or below.

    Now you need to do homework or go long term. 250K is a lot of cash. Also lots of bonds the 5k odd lots are cheap but bid ask is wide and if you sell before maturity you can take a 1-5% haircut.

    Also what state are you in? Only your home state, Puerto Rico, Guam and Virgin Islands are fully tax deducatable. I would 100% avoid Guam, and do more than 5% VI and PR.

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    July 15, 2011 at 10:04 am
    [151] [prior thread] JJ

    Sounds as if you agree, in part, with my observations. Agree that HNW individuals are buying bonds, not funds, and about quality issues (though in NJ, firetruck bonds tend to be firetruck notes, constantly refi’ed until a bond gets floated).

    Given some of the other comments about late, hot, money, I wonder if all the low-hanging fruit has been picked? I want to put about 250K into individual munis but I am concerned that I am too late to the party, and don’t know the second thing about picking decent bonds.

  42. me@my.other.job says:

    Nom, 38

    In essence, intelligent people realize what it takes to master knowledge of a topic (and as such, realize that there are many unknown variables at hand.)

    An ignoramus is sure he has mastered a topic, (is too stupid to realize the vastness of it) and is incorrectly confident.

    You have been educated and mastered some of the content in your field (hours of books, case studies, new laws) – you also realize that there is always more to know — an ignoramus read the cliff notes and assumes he is now a full-on expert.

    Does that explain it better?

    sl

  43. Bystander says:

    Looks the cheapos out there missed the greatest free flyer scam ever.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/113129/fly-for-free-us-mint-forbes?mod=bb-budgeting

  44. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [36] shore

    Classic tension between 4th and 5th amendment. The gov can look at those files under the 4th if they have a warrant (clearly they do). But by forcing you to disclose a password, you are being compelled to give the government incriminating information.

    ATEOTD, the court will order it. They will say a password is not testimony, rather they are keys to the filing cabinet and not protected under the 5th. Defendant will be held in contempt until she complies.

  45. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [44] JJ

    I am in NJ. I am also willing to tolerate some NJ tax exposure on non-NJ/PR paper, but obviously not a lot. Time horizon is long.

  46. Juice Box says:

    re: #39 – Shore – They are trying to take the easy way out by taking away our Fifth Amendment Right Against Self-Incrimination, but in reality they the DOJ only needs to make a phone call to the NSA to get the help needed to crack the key.

    Because few people can remember a 77-digit number which is the key lenght to AES-256 encryption the key itself is encrypted with a password and stored next to the encrypted data. Unless the password is 50+ characters long, it’s actually a lot easier to try every possible password than it is to try every possible key to then brute force decrypt the data. Also short passwords less than 12 digits used in the civilian world, maybe up can be cracked reasonably quickly using the right setup.

    The NSA has key-extraction scripts already written and ready to go for hundreds of kinds of crypto software, operating systems, etc. to prevent them from having to do the comparatively very hard task of cryptanalysis.

    . What’s more, people re-use passwords — if the same password as is used for the crypto software is also used to log into the PC, or into some web sites, or for multiple kinds of encryption, etc., it may be possible to attack some other, weaker system for the password and then use it to decrypt the key.

  47. me@my.other.job says:

    Moose,

    What did your IT person find? I am running Norton now but it still hasn’t come up with anything yet.

    sl

  48. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [45] SL

    Got Dunning-Kruger okay. Love how it dovetails with the Peter Principle.

    My post was more humor, especially the circularity of my extension of the Bertrand Russell quote when I conflate my abundance of doubt and paranoia with intelligence. Because I then note that the converse also applies–If I think myself smart for whatever reason, I must not be.

  49. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [45] SL

    Wait, if we think we understand Dunning-Kruger, does that mean we don’t?

  50. me@my.other.job says:

    grim,

    Can you delete the first Dunning Kruger post at 17?

    It appears to link to a malware site.

    thanks

    sl

  51. Juice Box says:

    re # 46-The courts won’t win over technology. Newer software will actually destroy the data if the password is entered incorrectly a few times. What will the courts do then convict you of destroying evidence they thought you had?

  52. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [40] shore,

    DoJ made a tactical error there. I would not have conceded that the passcode is protected under the 5th Amendment. I think that there is a decent argument that it is not. They could have held the argument they made in abeyance as an alternative.

  53. me@my.other.job says:

    Nom, 51

    It means that my knowledge of Dunning Kruger does not mean that I have th knowledge base of a Ph.D in psychology or a psychiatrist. I know that much.

    I blame the increasing difficulty of my job on Dunning Kruger as everyone who googles a symptom and reads about it automatically believes they are “internet doctors by proxy.”

    Does that explain it??

    sl

  54. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [54]

    In a criminal context, very hard to use evidence of destroyed evidence. Don’t practice there so I cannot say with certainty. But in a civil context, you can use the fact that the files were booby-trapped as evidence. If the gov. can prove the files existed, and that the defendant prevented their discovery, the court can infer that they contained damaging information. Problem here, however, is scope.

  55. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    are you in AMT or non AMT. AMT bonds give a lot better rate as most people are in AMT.

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    July 15, 2011 at 10:30 am

    [44] JJ

    I am in NJ. I am also willing to tolerate some NJ tax exposure on non-NJ/PR paper, but obviously not a lot. Time horizon is long.

  56. Nicholas says:

    There have been severe vulnerabilities for Adobe Flash Player that have active exploits being used by websites. The site doesn’t even have to be bad, they just have to have an advertizement that is bad for your computer to get infected. Also Windows 7 just released a major exploitable bug in the last few days.

    If you haven’t patched your system recently then you need to do so right away. Like **RIGHT NOW**.

    The Adobe Flash player delivers most animated web content across the board. Youtube videos….Flash Player. My work webpage doesn’t work without Adobe Flash player. Your browswer runs these animations by default, which you can turn off, but then the web just isn’t the same.

    Since the advertizement may be random when you visit the website then it isn’t being served up on each visit which makes it very difficult to find the real source of the infection. I may visit the site with no problems, but someone else visits the site and it results in an infected computer. Your best bet is to alert the webmaster of the page that your computer became infected from visiting his site.

  57. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [56] sl

    I have often gone to docs with WebMD knowledge, but have been careful to qualify it. I stick to describing symptoms as accurately as I can and couching opinion as uninformed based on internet reading. If I am concerned about a particular disease, I note my concern and leave it at that.

    Sometimes I am pooh-poohed, which I don’t take personally, but other times, I have been asked “are you in the medical profession, cause you seem to know a lot about this”. Some docs have found it helpful and have gone out of their way to add information that shows why the observation is not quite correct. Then we can refine symptom descriptions to better diagnose. And on at least one occasion, I stumped the band and the doc asked me to email him information on what I found.

  58. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [58] JJ

    In AMT

  59. Nicholas says:

    In the case of encrypted hard drives…

    There is nothing stopping someone from copying the entire “encrypted” contents of the drive bit by bit to make a back-up copy. Thus when they give you the ability to enter the password, if you accidentally or on purpose destroy the information then they can just restore the copy. Encryption doesn’t limit your ability to make a copy.

    I don’t think that evidence tampering is the largest of your problems here.

    You could perform a dictionary crack on the password. You could brute force the decryption. Depending on the resources that you wanted to spend and the security of the encryption method, this could take years or this could take weeks.

    I haven’t read anything about the case you guys are discussing but it seems to me that by getting them to provide the password you also produce a link that says they not only knew how to access, they were the ones protecting it. There might be some ability for them to say, “I had no idea what was on that disk, it was someone elses, I don’t even know the password for it”. By providing the password you are linking your self inextricably to the media.

    Look at the larger issues here, not the ones surrounding the requirement for someone to give up a password. I could care less about your password, I can already read the data, I just need you acknowledge that you own that data.

  60. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    nom I work with doctors and would agree with your assessment. Whichever therapeutic area I’m working in, i read up on symptoms co-morbities, typical treatments often get the same response. Either ignored or asked if I was in the field

  61. homeboken says:

    Obama speaking live – Apparently the words “Tax increase” has no been replaced with revenue increase.

    Revenue increase for the government, Yes.

    Revenue decrease for you the taxpayer. Yes.

  62. Anon E. Moose says:

    SL [49];

    Looks like run of the mill mal-ware — hijacks the machine, opens a window calling itself “Personal Shield Pro” and runs a fake virus scan tells me all about the bad stuff it found, were I to go further it most certainly would tell me that I can get rid of it for a modest registration fee. I’ve seen the type before. Kind of like the brick through the window with the glazier’s business card attached to it.

    I’m included to believe Nick’s [92] explanation and call it something that came in with a flash add or some such. We’re also running an older version of IE 7 in the office; many websites tell me that I should update. I guess I just rolled snake eyes.

    I’m glibly familiar with Dunning Kruger. Lots of discussion of it among poker players; usually when the fish at the table hits a miracle card to come from behind but thinks he had it in the bag all along. Tell-tale is when he starts bragging about it.

  63. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [65] moose

    I was always a lousy poker player. If I missed a regular game, my friends had to take turns losing.

    (actually, over time, I am pretty much even. Still don’t consider myself a decent player though)

  64. Shore Guy says:

    Did I just hear BO say that cutting federal spending 10% over the course of 10 years is unacceptable?

  65. Shore Guy says:

    Oh, this is a comedy routine. BO just said “we don’t need a balanced budget amendment to tell us to do our job… and balance the budget.” And that, “we do not need to take drastic action.”

    What planet is he from?

  66. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    That virus is made by a Russian firm who sells it to spammers. The spammers then sent it out to infect PCs, the virus is encoded with the spammers info. Every time someone who is infected buys the anti-malware to removed it they get a small cut of the profit.

    This is no different then when the auto glass place in Queens near me would pay kids $5 bucks for every car window they blew our with a BB gun. They are creating demand.

    Even worse the Russian firm is the russian mafia

  67. seif says:

    I will never get over the HUGE dichotomy in watching such an intelligent, well-spoken individual speaking about the issues of the day as opposed to that snide, smug, goober Bush. So much more comforting.

  68. homeboken says:

    Seif – As an admitted GOP’er I agree that Bush was not what even average as president, but the dems need to stop using the comparison to justify O’s performance. Sure he might be better spoken than bush, but that does not indicate his aptitude for the job

  69. homeboken says:

    Saying “well at least O is better than W” is like saying “at least Bin Laden is better than Hitler”

    Congrats, your chosen one is superior. But do you feel any better?

  70. seif says:

    I didn’t do that…I stated that it is much more comforting to have an intelligent person in that position. You may not agree with Obama’s ideas, principles, etc. but I think to say he doesn’t have an aptitude for the job is misguided. Not comparing the two; I thought Bush was a total goober with no aptitude for the job before I ever knew who BO was.

  71. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [70] seif,

    Eloquence does not equal intelligence. It isn’t even a decent proxy.

    But if you think it is, then I have some things to sell you. After all, I am pretty eloquent so I must know what I am talking about, right?

  72. Shore Guy says:

    Bush was a world-class putz and a dim bulb. Nevertheless, BO still sucks as president.

  73. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Did O just signal that he would be open to taking the McConnell “out”?

    It may be cynical, and I have zero basis for concluding this, but I think that all the GOP is doing is holding the plantation gates open for as long as they can.

  74. seif says:

    You guys are getting very defensive about this whole thing.

  75. Juice Box says:

    seif – gimme a break, with or without the Vaseline you are still getting screwed.

  76. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Seif cant stand both of them but seriously a silver tongue snake oil salesman who stammers without his telepromter like a early model VW beetle is your preferred choice. at least Shrub had the guts to speak without visual aids, granted he came across as a moron, but at least you he was willing to do so.

    Second on nom, being able to speak eloquently is no indicator of vast intellectual superiority, rather knowing the means to enthrall those via your locution. Nary a hint of intellect can be subscribed via the spoken word. In its stead you may find the what lurks behind sulty vocabulary is a closed mind and a hollow soul.

    See what I did there and me no smart!

  77. homeboken says:

    76.seif says:
    July 15, 2011 at 11:43 am
    You guys are getting very defensive about this whole thing.

    Why not elect George Clooney to POTUS, he can give amazing speeches and warm us all with his glowing smile. That will make me feel so nice and comfy.

  78. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    but was it like the guy who tried to rob a beauty shop in russia?

    Juice Box says:
    July 15, 2011 at 11:43 am

    seif – gimme a break, with or without the Vaseline you are still getting screwed.

  79. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [77] seif,

    I disagreed with your premise, but I won’t tell you what to think. I will simply take the other side of your trade (metaphorically speaking). If you are right, I lose, and if you are wrong, I win.

    I never question the courage of a person’s convictions, particularly if I can cash in on them.

  80. seif says:

    I mentioned the intelligence of the 2 people…not the job performance…but I understand why you guys are so defensive. I get it.

  81. Shore Guy says:

    Seif,

    Obama is a bright guy, brighter than most elected peoole in DC; however in my opinion, he lacks the aptitude to be a good, let alone great, president.

  82. shore (67)-

    Bojangles is a crackhead, addicted to the constant swell of money from the public coffers.

    And, like a crackhead in the middle of ratchet effect, it takes more and more money to produce a shorter, less-satisfying high.

  83. seif says:

    who was the last “great” president?

  84. seif (69)-

    Two different presidents, same shitty job performances.

  85. Chauncey Gardner would be an upgrade over the last two cretins in the Oval Office.

  86. seif (86)-

    Lincoln.

  87. homeboken says:

    86.seif says:
    July 15, 2011 at 11:59 am
    who was the last “great” president?

    Clinton was good, Reagan as well. For different reasons.

    HWB, W, O and Carter are all pretty terrible. I can’t comment on earlier as my impression is gleaned only from history books.

  88. Al Mossberg says:

    87.

    JFK.

  89. Post-1913, I consider any US president to be- first and foremost- a hostage of the banking cartel.

  90. Read Carville’s funny quotes on how the bond markets essentially turned Clinton into a sock puppet in 1993.

  91. Dan says:

    Anyone else observing that Randolph is becoming the murder capital of the world? And I thought they had estabished bike paths.

  92. Reagan? Supply-side economics? Other than Volcker, the rest of his stooges basically created and stoked the credit-on-crack mechanism that ended up crashing at Mach 3 in 2008.

  93. Dan (95)-

    I have a soccer pal who’s a cop in Mountainside and lives in Randolph. He is actually a little worried.

  94. homeboken says:

    96.There Went Meat says:
    July 15, 2011 at 12:06 pm
    Reagan? Supply-side economics? Other than Volcker, the rest of his stooges basically created and stoked the credit-on-crack mechanism that ended up crashing at Mach 3 in 2008.

    Economic success is not the only measure of a “successful presidency”

  95. Juice Box says:

    seif – Nixon may go down in history as a better President. I have been saying for two years now that we now have Jimmy Carter lite running the show. Obama needs to get
    angry and show emotion that is the only way he is going to survive the coming election. He has the same bully pulpit that Roosevelt invented and uses it like an 8th grader would in a debate.

  96. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Dan I moved there for the murder there wasn’t enough in my previous ghetto hellhole the bike paths are just a bonus

    clot by the way like the new name

  97. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    Ford

    seif says:
    July 15, 2011 at 11:59 am

    who was the last “great” president?

  98. boken (98)-

    Yes, but economic failure- masked as success- is a great way to look at presidencies in retrospect. Reagan’s actual economic failures were so all-encompassing that they allowed what was a slow-motion Ponzi to gear up to warp speed.

    For everything Volcker did monetarily to choke inflation, another five things were done fiscally and with regulatory and tax policy to create financial ebola.

    The Iron Curtain would’ve fallen under any president in office at the time. Once everyone behind the Iron Curtain wanted MTV, Walkmen and washer/dryers, it was game over.

  99. Seriously, Reagan’s idea of a constructive activity was to stim a multibillion dollar boondoggle to shoot x-ray gamma beams into outer space.

  100. The course was set in 1913. The vehicle is now at escape velocity and about to plow into a cosmic wall.

    Should be a great show for fans of spectacular crash-and-burns.

  101. Shore Guy says:

    http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2011/07/15/2011-07-15_time_to_call_obamas_bluff_on_debt_gop_cannot_be_drawn_into_his_games.html

    Time to call Obama’s bluff on debt: GOP cannot be drawn into his games

    President Obama is demanding a big, long-term budget deal. He won’t sign anything less, he warns, asking, “If not now, when?”

    How about last December, when he ignored his own debt commission’s recommendations? How about February, when he presented a budget that increases debt by $10 trillion over the next decade? How about April, when he sought a debt-ceiling increase with zero debt reduction attached?

    All of a sudden he’s a born-again budget balancer prepared to bravely take on his own party by making deep cuts in entitlements. Really? Name one. He’s been saying forever that he’s prepared to discuss, engage, converse about entitlement cuts. But never once has he publicly proposed a single structural change to any entitlement.

    Hasn’t the White House leaked that he’s prepared to raise the Medicare age or change the cost-of-living calculation?

    Anonymous talk is cheap. Leaks are designed to manipulate. Offers are floated and disappear.

    Say it, Mr. President. Give us one structural change in entitlements. In public.

    As part of the pose as the forward-looking grownup rising above all the others who play politics, Obama insists upon a long-term deal. And what is Obama’s definition of long-term? Surprise: an agreement that gets him past Nov. 6, 2012.
    snip

  102. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    What do you want to bet that there is a serious effort on the part of some in North Dakota to exploit this issue and get the state to repudiate its (defective) admission into the Union?

    http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/upshot/fine-print-north-dakota-may-not-state-195631502.html

  103. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [106] shore

    If it were up to me, I would propose a deal that has some limited tax hikes on the truly wealthy (say, on AGI over 1MM), but rejects the rest of the Obama tax agenda; repeals the mandatory enrollment provision of Obamacare; and scores a lot of other big budget hits (mostly against demoncratic constituencies of course). The proposal should be truly painful for Obama and the dems.

    If it is accepted, the GOP can claim victory on some issues, and limit Obama’s victory on taxes and the deal. If it is rejected, the GOP can claim that they made a major concession on taxes but Obama isn’t interested in compromise.

  104. 3b says:

    #95 Dan: I am missing something? When did that happen? i was always under the impression that Randolph was a nice town.

  105. SoccerDad (aka DeepThroat) says:

    The economy was good under Clinton, ergo Clinton was a good President? Between the bond vigilantes and the botched health care, Clinton followed a Republican script.The deregulation of the financial markets occurred under Clinton. ( Where was the Democratic President standing up for the little peoples’ rights?) Deregulation led to the 2008 collapse. I have no problem with greedy guys competing against each other on Wall Street but you can’t let them set the rules or they totally game the system as they’re doing now. Deregulation turned the student loan industry into a debt slave mill violating century old usury restrictions. Thanks Clinton and Bojangles for showing the world we’re a one party state!

  106. Shore Guy says:

    I have finally concluded that a default is better than continuing on our well trod path of setting a debt limit, promising change, then going on our merry way until the next debt-limit vote. Not too many years ago, we were like a pretty strong person who had a few extra pounds on him, not ideal but okay. Over the years, we packed on a few more pounds each year and, bit-by-bit the pounds added up and somewhat impaired our capabilities; however, as we could still do most of what we wanted and since others around us had also put on some undesirtable weight, we viewed the extra poundage as acceptable. Year after year, we looked at the scale and decided that, because the weight gain was no worse, as a percent of our overall weight, adding the extra girth was no big deal — we can always diet at some future time.

    Folks, we are now drastically impaired by our excessive weight, we have weight-related deseises, and we run a serious risk of keeling over dead, or worse, suffering a stroke that does not kill us but leaves us as an empty shell of what we were once before. Cutting back on the amount of weight gain going forward is no longer sufficient. Losing 5-10 pounds will not cut it either. We are sick and the sooner we come to grips with that reality the better off we will be.

    Back when we were lean and mean, we were fully capable of responding to whatever challenges we faced in the neighborhood. Now? Well, let us not forget that a strong and ever-stronger dragon is living to our west. For the moment, the dragon seems benign; however, unless we shape up, we will not be able to respond to and aggression, economic or otherwise, that the dragon decides to inflict upon us.

    Any politician who has been paying attention knows this to be the case. Would that more of them thought more about our posterity than about their own posterior. If it takes a default and the pain caused by one, we will be better off for having dealt with the problems we face rather than kicking the can down the road until after the next election, then the next, and the next.

  107. S&W686 .357 says:

    Anyone have any pistol range recommendations, that don’t have a wait, in the Morris County area? Looking to try out my new toy.

  108. Shore Guy says:

    “If it were up to me, I would propose a deal that has some limited tax hikes on the truly wealthy (say, on AGI over 1MM), ”

    Works for me. I would also go for an estate-tax exemption of say $5-$10 million, allowing family businesses and non-corporate farms to pass from generation to generation, while getting revenue from the big dogs. If we are looking for real tax reform, I would go for lowering corporate and tax rates and personal tax rates, ideally a single percentage for both (and for cap gains), say on all income earned over $10,000/yr, thus exempting birthday envelopes from grandma, etc., and eliminate all deductions. Hey, you want 10 kids, fine, just don’t expect everyone else to pay for them. Want to pay mortgage interest? Great, just don’t expect all of us to pay for your borrowing. And so on and so forth.

  109. Shore Guy says:

    Back to the tax workhouse. Aug 15, can’t get here soon enough. We need some of our own money.

  110. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    Screw the exemption on the family business.

    family a has farm worth ten million, family b has ten million why shouldn’t family a pay estate tax and family b does not? Also what stops family b from buying a business when parents are 80 and giving to kids?

    The ten kids thing is a joke. I have three kids and a stay at home wife, in order to earn enough to keep them fed, have clothes and pay for school etc. I am in AMT so I can’t really deduct them. To have 10K kids you need a 500K income which means since kids are preferences according to AMT you don’t get anything. It is the credits that drive me nuts, when someone with zero income and ten kids can still claim ten credits. Obvisously they do not have zero income.

    Shore Guy says:
    July 15, 2011 at 1:02 pm

    “If it were up to me, I would propose a deal that has some limited tax hikes on the truly wealthy (say, on AGI over 1MM), ”

    Works for me. I would also go for an estate-tax exemption of say $5-$10 million, allowing family businesses and non-corporate farms to pass from generation to generation, while getting revenue from the big dogs. If we are looking for real tax reform, I would go for lowering corporate and tax rates and personal tax rates, ideally a single percentage for both (and for cap gains), say on all income earned over $10,000/yr, thus exempting birthday envelopes from grandma, etc., and eliminate all deductions. Hey, you want 10 kids, fine, just don’t expect everyone else to pay for them. Want to pay mortgage interest? Great, just don’t expect all of us to pay for your borrowing. And so on and so forth.

  111. seif says:

    how come this is the first time the debt limit has been used as a bargaining chip?

  112. Juice Box says:

    re #115- seif – It’s not the first and won’t the the last as I said before Jimmy Carter lite.

    “Back in 1979, mirroring today’s events, Republicans were refusing to allow President Jimmy Carter, a Democrat, to raise the US debt ceiling. Then, the row was over raising it to $830bn, today, the question is whether to lift the $14.3 trillion limit (inflation, of course, has helped swell the figure).

    The approval to raise the debt ceiling did come at the last minute, but amid all the drama the cheques did not get written. In all, the US Treasury failed to pay around $120m to investors expecting their dues for Treasuries maturing on April 26, May 3 and May 10 that year. ”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8639896/The-last-time-the-US-defaulted-and-blamed-the-printer.html

  113. 250k says:

    Grim, in your first post, Signs of Improvement in Age-Restricted Market, you neglected to add some key bits of info from the article, such as the developers tossing in thousands of dollars in free upgrades and even going so far as to fix up the buyers current homes for sale before closing deals on the age restricted units they are purchasing.

    That being said, Westfield is ON FIRE!

    Hey Com, someone finally bought that new home built by Duanno on “Forest Glen” Court or whatever.

  114. This is what happens when you’re riding a credit bubble. Expectations are out of this world these days! Thanks for the post.

  115. Dink says:

    Shore #110,

    Since you are endorsing a strategic default by the USA I would assume you have a good handle on the question of what exactly happens if we do so. I’ve heard answers that run the gamut.

    Then I ask the question, what if other countries follow our lead? I would assume a US default would be an implicit endorsement of doing so. There are many in much worse shape then us.

    Also, do you honestly believe a default is what what would actually bring the country together in the spirit of bipartisanship to do what’s best and make it great again? I think it would just deepen divides moreso.

  116. seif says:

    ahhh…so taking the economy hostage is an oldie from the repub playbook.

  117. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    “ahhh…so taking the economy hostage is an oldie from the repub playbook.”

    Not to nitpick but wouldn’t the economy have to be alive to be considered a hostage?

  118. Mikeinwaiting says:

    HeHeHe 122 Good one.

  119. seif says:

    that is a good one…but if it was dead you would know. i am sure you still work, shop and pay your bills, etc. it may be on life support but it is “alive.”

  120. Juice Box says:

    seif – I will match whatever you donate to the Treasury to avoid this whole mess of the debt ceiling. If we start an Americathon right now default can be avoided.

    Citizens who wish to make a general donation to the U.S. government may send contributions to a specific account called “Gifts to the United States.” This account was established in 1843 to accept gifts, such as bequests, from individuals wishing to express their patriotism to the United States. Money deposited into this account is for general use by the federal government and can be available for budget needs. These contributions are considered an unconditional gift to the government. Financial gifts can be made by check or money order payable to the United States Treasury and mailed to the address below.

    Gifts to the United States
    U.S. Department of the Treasury
    Credit Accounting Branch
    3700 East-West Highway, Room 622D
    Hyattsville, MD 20782

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Americathon

  121. seif says:

    “to avoid this whole mess of the debt ceiling.”

    there is no mess of the debt ceiling. in the past raising the debt ceiling has often been one line in a bill. i don’t recall any of this when it was raised 7 times during the last administration. why is everyone up in arms now?

  122. chicagofinance says:

    seif says:
    July 15, 2011 at 11:59 am
    who was the last “great” president?

    Clinton…..I will say that I find it interesting that the Fox News crowd derisively dismissed the Obamunist as a “community organizer”, but actually, all rhetoric aside, I think BO suffers from a lack of experience. I really thought he jumped the gun running in 2008, although he made it into the big house. It similar to the discussion around Christie. CC kinds of knows that even if he won in 2012, it would be an epic fail. BO was going to get the WH no matter what, so why not wait until 2016 or 2020, when actually may have developed the demeanor for the job, instead of this petulence and overreliance on delgating authority that causes him to be a bumbler now?

  123. Shore Guy says:

    Seif,

    An extra straw at one point is no big deal
    At a later time it breaks a back. I trust you understand this.

  124. JC says:

    Shore #128: Funny how that back-breaking straw only seems to be regarded as an issue by Republicans when a Democrat is president, isn’t it?

  125. seif says:

    Put it this way: If a Republican president had managed to extract the kind of concessions on Medicare and Social Security that Mr. Obama is offering, it would have been considered a conservative triumph. But when those concessions come attached to minor increases in revenue, and more important, when they come from a Democratic president, the proposals become unacceptable plans to tax the life out of the U.S. economy.

  126. Shore Guy says:

    Dink,

    I am noy saying rrpudiate the debt. Nor am saying that I either know whar will result from a temporary failure to meet our obligations or that I will like the result. We are sinking and people refuse to step up and stop spending ourselves into the ground. Something needs to change.

  127. seif says:

    we need to stop forgoing revenue for huge tax cuts for wealthy people and corporations. the govt has lost ginormous amounts of revenue doing so. where did the clinton surplus go???

  128. seif says:

    i’m sorry, i mean “huge tax cuts for the JOB CREATORS.”

  129. nj escapee says:

    here’s a youtube video of a digital recreation of the flight that crashed into the hudson, its a few min long but unbelievable to experience.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=tE_5eiYn0D0#t=109 (http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=tE_5eiYn0D0#t=109)

  130. Shore Guy says:

    Jc,

    Therr are plenty of Republicans, myself included, who were furious with Bush’s overspending. For a long time, I have called for, including calls to White House officials I knew, to reduce YOY spending by aapercentage or two each year for 10 years.

  131. Dan says:

    3b,

    Beats me but you can’t open up the paper now without hearing about some murderer from Randolph between Zarate, Matos and now the guy that buries his parents in the yard.

  132. Juice Box says:

    re: #133 – seif – “we need to stop forgoing revenue for huge tax cuts for wealthy people and corporations”.

    We as in who? Are back in December again? Obama traded a two year extension to the Bush Tax cuts for a 13 month extension in Unemployment and called it a victory, here we are several months later and the same issues of gov’t transfers and taxes are back to a boiling point.

    Everything that could have been done by the Democrats should have happened before November the last election when it actually had a chance of passing.
    We are now at an impass until the next election or next crisis.

    Jimmy Carter 2.0

  133. Anon E. Moose says:

    Seif [133];

    No, the middle class needs to stop spend tax dollars extracted from ‘wealthy’ people to salve their guilt at the plight of poor people.

    Lets face it, even a flat tax doesn’t make a difference to the people on the bottom of the ladder. 23% of nothing is nothing, and in any case they’re still 77% better off for transfer payments even if they were taxed – they’re voting their pockets no matter what.

    Its the people who see the poor, maybe say ‘there but for the grace…’, and when they support big ticket social spending they really don’t feel any difference. Over half of American households a net positive on taxes paid – transfers received. They don’t feel it either, but they’re not strictly voting their own pockets. They’re buying off their guilt with money of ‘the wealthy’ (loosely defined as anyone who makes $1 more than me).

    The solution to these problems of lack of restraint on spending OPM is a flat tax and balanced budget – no soaking the rich, and no soaking the grandkids.

  134. Shore Guy says:

    What I find rich is that liberals seem unwilling to cut spending paid mainly by others and are also all for raising taxes on those already bearing the burden of funding government all while crying that it is “unfair” for others to pay more to fund the spending that they most want and benefit from.

    I find it quite reasonanble to push the government to make every possible cut before raising any taxes. Once everything that can be cut is cut go ahead and raise revenue; however, do it fairly with no deductions for anything and a flat tax. Anyone who thinks that a flat tax is unfair is really saying that government spending really not worth supporting. If you want an overreaching government, dig into your pocket and help pa fr it at the same rate as everyone else.

  135. Shore Guy says:

    What moosr saidwhile I was fighting with Android.

  136. nj escapee says:

    Moose, flat tax sounds good until you run the numbers.
    An individual who makes let’s say $10/ hr or 20K / year less 30% taxes leaves him / her with 14K /yr for shelter, food, clothing, utilities, healthcare, transportation to work etc.. Impossible in the USA. Either subsidize through the tax code or some other way to provide a safety net. If not, we have Brazil or some other 3rd world country. That type of situation is not going to make high earners feel very safe / secure when the folks around them are in need.

  137. Shore Guy says:

    Nje,

    The alternative is slashing spending and a lower flat tax.

  138. nj escapee says:

    Shore, so let’s just close the entire govt down completely, no contractors, no employees, no public schools and every citizen must carry a gun to ensure his / her own protection. Now that is an environment worth living in.

  139. nj escapee says:

    I think that would be Afghanistan.

  140. Shore Guy says:

    That is a specious argument. There are amny things government does that may be good but if we cannot afford them should not be done.

    I for one am not saying NEVER raise my taxes. What I am saying is don’ t dare raise them until exhausting all other options.

  141. nj escapee says:

    yeah, it is specious, the rhetoric coming from both sides is ridiculous.

  142. Al Mossberg says:

    Gold $1,594.40 $1,595.40 $5.10
    Silver $39.33 $39.38 $0.63

    Bonds? LMAO

  143. Al Mossberg says:

    144,

    Shore,

    Flat tax? Come on man. That would mean the 75% of the population wouldnt be able to afford stuffing their face with double cheeseburgers and fries at lunch time.

  144. Anon E. Moose says:

    NJ Escapee [142];

    Arguing a $20k/yr earner is specious. That’s minimum wage. You’re not even lower middle class on $20k a year, you’re well below poverty level. The median household income accross the country is about $50k.

    Besides, the Fair Tax proposal includes an exemption for poverty-lavel consumption, implemented as a (p)rebate amounting to $5-$11k per year, depending on household size. To some portion of this country, it just wouldn’t be “America” if you didn’t cash a government check.

  145. Al Mossberg says:

    “Shore, so let’s just close the entire govt down completely, no contractors, no employees, no public schools and every citizen must carry a gun to ensure his / her own protection. Now that is an environment worth living in.”

    Watch how polite this society becomes if that were to happen.

  146. Fabius Maximus says:

    Waiting for my pies at New Park Pizza in Howard Beach. One off the best pizza places in the city and wwhat a history!

  147. NjescaPee says:

    Fabius we used to have their pies all the time back in the 70s

  148. NjescaPee says:

    Moose. Here in flyover country much of the adult population are working full-time at jobs that pay 10 bucks per hour with no fringe benefits.

  149. NjescaPee says:

    Largest employer in US is Walmart. How much compensation does a cashier or greeter earn?

  150. Confused In NJ says:

    Top 10 US employers by number of employees? Walmart is by far the largest single US employeer employing 4 times as many workers as second place McDonalds. The top 10 are: 1. Walmart 2. McDonalds 3. United Parcel Service 4. Sears 5. Home Depot 6. Target 7. IBM 8. GM 9. GE 10. Citigroup.

  151. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Shore flat tax to regressive. Guy making 40k gets crunched guy doing 250k ,well the party is on.

  152. The poor don’t pay nearly enough in taxes. Time to make them put some skin in the game.

  153. nj_serf says:

    We put in a offer recently on a property and are expecting an acceptance soon. Does anyone know a reputable home inspector and attorney in morris cty area? we really would rather not go with our realtors own people. Anyone have experience shopping mortgages also?

  154. gary says:

    Are there no prisons? The Treadmill and the Poor Law are in full vigour, then? And the union work houses, are they still in full operation?

  155. nj escapee says:

    Believe me I am no liberal but I have to say that the folks that work at these places are real people not hypothetical they may seem invisible but they all around us.
    My wife has been volunteering 20 hrs / week in the emergency room at the local hospital for the past year plus and comes home with some really sad stories of poor elderly, homeless Vets and just some unlucky poor folks.
    Do we really want those people to do without necessary healthcare, starve or be forced to live in their cars or under bridges?

  156. A.West says:

    escapee,
    I’d like them to ask nicely for help. Having to ask other people for help when you need it makes some people plan differently, so as to not be in a position to ask for help. Such people behave much differently than when they think they can have someone else reach into my pocket, transfer some money, and then rather than a thank you, they say, “FU rich bastard, next year I want 5% more! “

  157. Shore Guy says:

    Flat tax regressive? If is neither regressive nor progressive. If a 25% flat tax exempted the first $10,000 in income a person earning $20,000 a year would pay about $1,600 in FICA and medicare tax and 25% on 8,400 or $2,100 for a total tax of 3,700.

    As a person in this income range is likely to rent ot have a very small mortgage the los of deductible mortgage is not going to hit them to the same degree as it hits someone earning $80,000 or more. Those who are higher earnets would also lose %15 cap gains.

    In the end, Nom, Stu, Grim, prrobably you, and for sure I will pay net more tax, but at least it will be fair and create more people with a financial interest in keeping federal spending in check.

  158. nj escapee says:

    West, I don’t want to pay additional taxes either but I will if I have to. I have no choice. We don’t get most of the tax deductions / allowances that are available to many other people. My wife and I subsidize folks in the northeast with your high NJ real estate tax and mortgage interest deductions to support your superior schoolsystems while the same folks in the northeast don’t want to help pay for national flood insurance program. We are all interdependent somehow. Lately the gotminers aka nuvo-libertarians aka repugs are trying to dismantle the remaining middle class safety-net. I say F-them!

  159. Shore Guy says:

    “I don’t want to pay additional taxes either but I will if I have to”

    Same here. I only want them to cut every last thing that can be cut before asking for more. Things like libraries — one of the great educational equalizers — head start, public health, NASA, these all pay dividands well beyond any cost. As much as I like theatre and the arts, and we give thousands each year to support both, and we spend a lot of money on art as well, I suspect we could cut the NEA and the republic would be fine. The White House Fellows program is a fine program that could go in ther interest in saving aid to a rural or inner city library somewhere. Do we really need to be subsidizing Iowa farmers to produce ethanol? The list could go on and on. I have little doubt that we could cut 25% from our budget and still provide a robust array of services to the American people.

  160. Al Mossberg says:

    160,

    Serf,

    Here is a guy that shoots straight and gets the job done. I recommend shopping around though. 4.375 30 year fixed.

    http://www.usmtgcap.com/

    Joel Shamie. Contact info in right upper corner.

  161. Al Mossberg says:

    163.

    A West!

    Bingo! Its amazing what can be done when you ask nicely. I dont doubt the egalitarian tendency of most Americans but when you try to BS a BS artist its time to hit the bricks.

    Well said.

  162. nj escapee says:

    Shore I agree with everyone of the items you just listed but that only gets at the margins. I have my doubts that it will cut 25%. I’m a numbers guy so someone needs to show me. I’m getting tired of the idealogical nonsense coming out of both parties. In the end they are the same.

  163. nj_serf says:

    166

    Al, Thanks, I will check it out.

  164. Shore Guy says:

    Al,

    I for one detest the term “entitlements.” The money/services provided may be of great benefit, nad the person receiving them may have helped pay for them, but, in the final analysis they are largess provided by taxpayers for the benefit of others. A little more than passing gratitude would not be unwelcome.

    As for those who only earn limited amounts, my heart goes out to them. I was once among them and I know wht it is to becold and hungry and to not have reliable transportation and to not have money for entertainment, etc. That said, there are an awful lot of peole who drop out of school or do not otherwise take advantage of educational gifts (schools, vocational training, etc.) and, instead, focus on being “cool,” a bad @ss, etc. One must take control of ones own fate and work like a dog to put onself in the best advantage to take advantage of opportunities for self improvement and, with it, economic improvement. Those who do everything they can do to become economically self sufficient, but who fail for one reason or anothert, they deserve our assistance and support. Those who piddle away the opportunities provided by taxpayers and fail to reach sufficiency, well, I have less sympathy for them. The dropout rate in Amreica’s city schools is astronomical, even with the data massaging that goes on to pretend that things are not as bad as they are. Someone who drops out and then complains about earning minimum wage is barking up the wrong tree over here at the Shore household.

  165. Shore Guy says:

    “I’m getting tired of the idealogical nonsense coming out of both parties.”

    Yup. I say it again, it is time for our representatives in DC to worry more about our posterity and less about their posteriors. My deep concern is that, even with this proverbial gun to our head, congress and the executive brance seem unable to take out the budgetary cleaver. That being the case, what will they do with more revenue?

  166. Shore Guy says:

    “Does anyone know a reputable home inspector and attorney in morris cty area?”

    Stu used a guy, who I think was recomended by Chifi. I bet Grim could pass along a request for a name if you e-mail him.

  167. BC Bob says:

    “who was the last “great” president?”

    Ford. He gave a Bronx Cheer to Nixon, legalizing the ownership of gold coins and bars. The rest are paper whores.

  168. Al Mossberg says:

    174,

    Shore,

    I agree. Theres nothing wrong with being poor. In fact, I think it creates work ethic. There in lies the trap of a social safety net. Its long past due for Americans to start acting like Americans.

    Disclaimer. Those found guilty of treason should be punished as such. Its coming.

  169. Al Mossberg says:

    BC Bob,

    How is the vault going these days?

  170. nj escapee says:

    Shore, in the end all of us should vote for our own interests which means that inertia eventially will force the change one way or another.

  171. Fabius Maximus says:

    #23 Yome,

    The wingnut spin cycle is on full blast trying to find a way out of this. Bonehead took Cantor to the woodshed yesterday and that will be the last you hear from Eric on this issue. The wingnuts know the GOP leadership is folding and they are trying to find a way to stop them and get them to hold the line. Bonehead and Palpadine are in damage limitation mode. They know this is over and they have to work out how they sign the increase and not lose too much face. The funny thing is that O will probably help them on that.

    From #107 nj escapee yesterday

    You have this the wrong way round. The Tea party was the wingnut right sitting waiting for the election to launch, they just co-opted the people. I don’t know if Santelli was warned away from the politics of his rant by his employers, but I suspect that he saw the movement for what it was and decided to have no part of it. For a grass roots movement, it got funded too well, too quickly to ever make it past the smell test. For all the smoke and mirrors thrown up, it is surprising how many web sites were registered in 2008 before O had even won.

  172. BC Bob says:

    Actually, I like this O guy. I wonder who won the $1 bet, Mortimer or Randolph?

    http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au1825nyb.html

  173. Shore Guy says:

    “vote for our own interests ”

    I am enough of a sappy romantic that I would prefer that we vote for the nation’s best interests, whic will often be different from our own.

  174. Shore Guy says:

    which, too

  175. nj escapee says:

    Fabius, 177, OK maybe you’re right. My excuse is the news filters down here via cocnut telegraph.

  176. Shore Guy says:

    Mom gets layover in jail after yelling at TSA

    By Joe Myxter, travel editor

    A Tennessee woman landed in jail after allegedly yelling at Transportation Security Administration officers and refusing to allow her daughter to go through a full-body scanner and a pat-down search.

    According to a report in the Tennessean, Andrea Fornella Abbott shouted and cursed at TSA workers at Nashville International Airport on Saturday. Abbott said she didn’t want her daughter’s “crotch grabbed,” the paper reported, citing a police report.

    The 41-year-old was charged with disorderly conduct.
    snip

    http://overheadbin.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/07/13/7075992-mom-gets-layover-in-jail-after-yelling-at-tsa

  177. Al Mossberg says:

    Dont get all frayed about the political theatre. The debt ceiling will be raised anyway at the expense of the currency we all use. No point starving old folks. They did work and pay into a flawed system. The game is preservation of wealth but the goal of the c_onspirators is world gov via world currency.

  178. Fabius Maximus says:

    “Why not elect George Clooney to POTUS, he can give amazing speeches and warm us all with his glowing smile. That will make me feel so nice and comfy.”

    I think they call that the “Reagan effect” looks nice and warm and fuzzy on top, but underneath, tax increases all round, tripled the deficit and lots and lots of defence spending for the base and the donors.
    Got Star Wars!

  179. BC Bob says:

    Al [175],

    If anyone wants a full time job, for the next 5-7 years, just trade the metals and buy pullbacks. Dow/Gold will settle between 2-1 & 1-1. One hiccup; you will need margin $; sorry, no money down will not qualify.

    The global debt implosion will require the continued printing of worthless paper. The game plan is to inflate it away. The debt ceiling will be raised till infinity and after QE 8,9,10, it will continue disguissed under other names, i.e., build back Amerika as they raid 401K and IRA plans.

    The metals market is just beginning to heat up, it’s a perfect storm. If the clowns are successful it will result in high-hyper inflation. If not, they will continue to debase the currency. Remember, currencies don’t float, they just crash at different rates.

    Buy as much as you can (PM), then buy more.

    By the way, when we go out on your boat I’ll tell you what I really feel.

  180. Al Mossberg says:

    BC Bob,

    Nice to have your input again. Welcome back. Do you want to man the dual 50’s on the bow or the stern?

  181. Fabius Maximus says:

    The problem with all the b1tching over tax increases in here today always comes back to the Bush Tax cuts, with just cause. Here are a few points to consider.

    When people say its a tax increase yes that it is right, you will pay more taxes, but this is not a new tax. Bush gave you a big discount on your taxes, congratulations the offer period is expiring and the original rates are being reinstated.
    Bush justified the rate cuts as “we have a surplus, it should be returned to the people”, well yes, BUT there was this big deficit, that the surplus should have been used to pay off.

    The biggest noise that I hear, all those Leona Helmselys, b1tching that they don’t want to be first in the payback line. Higher earners got more of a tax break through the cuts, so guess what, your first to get to pay off their part of the deficit first because you owe more.

  182. BC Bob says:

    Of course the debt ceiling will be raised. We are experts in one area; raising ceilings and lowering floors. We have a gargantuan debt problem and zero resolve to tackle it. The foundation is crumbling, the structure is fractured. The only solution is to raise ceilings. Zombies must be fed. Now, it’s all political posturing. Does the ceiling get raised temporarily or is O successful in striking a deal that’s effective from now until after the next election.

    More important, eventually somebody will get stiffed. The only question; how long and what party/parties.

  183. BC Bob says:

    Al [187],

    It doesn’t matter. Just don’t sit me next to the blood suckers and leeches.

  184. Fabius Maximus says:

    Flat Tax

    The problem is that those who propose a flat tax will always look to exclude, interest income, capital gains and dividends. Also you try applying it to the “corporate person” they will die on the vine.

    So flat tax, comes down to a pipe dream

  185. Fabius Maximus says:

    #162 #170 A West/Shore

    So you want todays version of a “Please, sir, I want some more.” I would suggest you go back an read the book, but I suspect you would miss the point.

  186. escape (161)-

    Evidently, Bojangles and your Clowngress do. After the banksters, the health denial industry is their biggest paymaster.

    “Do we really want those people to do without necessary healthcare, starve or be forced to live in their cars or under bridges?”

  187. We either kill off Boomers with denial of medical care or whack half a generation of the young by starting a war.

    Those are the choices.

  188. JC says:

    I’m amazed that there are still so many people who think that a) poverty can’t happen to them, and b) if you just work hard and get an education you’ll never be poor.

    In case you haven’t noticed, there’s a systematic dismantling of the middle class going on in this country, and it’s not because the Koch Bros. want you to be able to join THEIR club.

  189. Shore Guy says:

    Compromise can be a good thing and trying to “meet n the middle” is one form of compromise. That said, sometimes one side ir the other is SO wrong that compromise is not a virtue: Nevil Chamberlain anybody?

  190. Shore Guy says:

    Nevile, too

  191. 3b says:

    #95 JC: Apparently some on the middle class do not seem to care. They simly ignore it, if they have a job. Others just tell themelves hey we are America, it will all get better. Ask for any deeper comment than that, and you get the shrug and or eye blink. The rest appear to have been heavily medicated.

  192. Shore Guy says:

    “there’s a systematic dismantling of the middle class going on in this country,”

    Regardless of the reason for this, some will say it is a nefarious plot and others benign neglect, how anybody can think they will have any chance of supporting themselves without working their @ss off to acquire some marketable skills and abilities is beyond me. Look, I have been poor,and hungry, and cold, and I know that sometimes awful things happen to people who have done everything the right way and they suffer because of events beyond their control. I get it. Still, there are way, way, way too many people who do not make a reasonable effort to improve themselves. Learn to cut hair, tend gardens, plumb, farm, run a hedge fund, whatever, but learn something beyond the lyrisc to some songs that amuse you or who is doing what to whom in hollywood, or whatever Jerry Springer (is he still alive?) is doing with his guests.

    Too many people drop out of school. Most who do this do not do themselves any economic favors. Many who do finish high school have failed to take full advantage of the educatuion provide them and, by concentrating on pop culture, do themselves an economic disservice.

    Making one’s way in the world is tough and anyone who pretends that it is not is deluding themselves. Mrs. Shore and I each have multiple degrees, good jobs, a great income, substantial assets and we fear daily for how we will support ouselves in the future, how we can launch a successful Little Shore, how we can keep ourselves economically relevant. I see so many people blithing floating through life assuming that all will be well and if something goes wrong, society will help make it better. I don’t know how they sleep at night.

  193. NjescaPee says:

    Shore -) Glenn Beck? ;)

  194. NjescaPee says:

    Off tO do some snorkeling at the reef. Have a great day everyone!!

  195. Glenn Beck is a nutcase. Shore is not.

  196. Al Mossberg says:

    An entertaining paragraph from Martin Armstrong sums up this thread.

    “Perhaps I am a fool for caring about the future. Maybe I should just shut up and go live on a remote island and wait for the orange glow and the mushroom cloud to appear on the horizon and I will know then that it is all clear and at last and safe to emerge. I do think it is hopeless to prevent what will be from being. That is the cycle. The collective fate of the nation is decided and there is no stopping that. This is the cycle of life. Everything is born, it lives, and then it dies. This applies to mankind, plant life, animals, and government/collective groups. The best we can hope is to survive individually. The torch will pass from west to the east and it will be their 309 years in the spotlight. Thank God we are not immortal. For hell would be having to stay here in such a corrupt world with no hope of changing the tide. So perhaps it is Frank Sinatra’s song after all that is the greatest philosophical statement of all time, Send in the Clowns, where he concludes, don’t bother, they’re here”

  197. BC Bob says:

    AG [204],

    You have the link for the article?

  198. Shore Guy says:

    Wow! I am tagged as both uber leftie Keith Olberman and uber right-winger Glen Beck.

    I guess that puts me in the middle like lukewarm water.

  199. still_looking says:

    NJescapee,

    how are home prices in the Keys (particularly waterfront- and any dangers?) How are schools there? How is living for folks with young kids? How is medical care.

    I know I have to do my own due diligence but it helps having an “insider” there. Would you email me off line? (Grim, can you send my email address?)

    Thanks!

    sl

  200. Shore Guy says:

    sl,

    If it sounds somewhat promising, the Shore’s would be grateful to hear your impressions. We are taking a couple weeks to scout out NC, but that is still a bit cool in Feb.

  201. Shore Guy says:

    What I have tended to see looking around online are real dumps at $400,000 asking price:

    http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/716-Thomas-St_Key-West_FL_33040_M55662-99199

  202. Shore Guy says:

    Then there are neighborhoods like this, check street view, where there are some alright homes with trailers plunked down next dooe or across the street. Although south across the highway, on Countey Club seems pretty decent.

  203. Shore Guy says:

    There also seem to be some decent-looking places on Spoonbill and Kestral.

    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/34-Spoonbill-Way-Key-West-FL-33040/45803511_zpid/

    It looks to be a gated community.

  204. Shore Guy says:

    In a twist, a female air passenger gropes a TSA agent’s bre@sts:

    A Colorado woman was arrested Thursday after she groped a female TSA agent at Sky Harbor International Airport in Phoenix, MyFoxPhoenix.com reports.

    Yukari Mihamae, 61, reportedly grabbed the left breast of a TSA agent at a checkpoint.

    She then reportedly squeezed and twisted the agent’s breast with both hands.

    Phoenix police tell the website that Mihamae admitted to the crime, but they do not know why she groped the female agent.

    The 61-year-old woman was released on her own recognizance Thursday and now faces a felony count of sexual abuse.

    snip

    http://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/07/16/woman-arrested-for-groping-tsa-agent-at-phoenix-airport/#ixzz1SIc4OpVJ

  205. Shore Guy says:

    Stu,

    On your next vacation, here is an approach to getting through security:

    http://www.myfoxphoenix.com/dpp/entertainment/travel/man-wears-speedos-for-sky-harbor-security-12042010

  206. NjescaPee says:

    SL, ok, just got back from our trip. Saw at least 2 pods of dolphins. Key West is a diverse community. We have Montessori school here. Our neighbor’s son is doing great there. We live in the gated community that Shore mentioned. We are walking distance to the hospital. Healthcare is good here as you know Dr Campanile Has a practice here with other prominent cardiac specialists. In general life is very good. :)

  207. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (215) shore,

    I know Stu. While he is not a bad looking guy, I an in no hurry to see in in a speedo.

  208. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (201) shore

    Great post. Felt like you were in my head.

    In response to JC and fabius, I was just gonna quote Pogo. I’m just lazier I guess.

  209. nj escapee says:

    Water was clear and beautiful today with 1 ft swells and 85 degrees.

  210. nj escapee says:

    Hi Grim, please forward SL’s email address when you get a chance. Thanks!!

  211. Al Mossberg says:

    Bob,

    “So, all I can do is report what is taking place. I believe this is why the chart on gold I just published has a tremendous gap between the trading channel and the breakout line. I have never seen such a disparity. That gap will be filled – a thrust will take place big time and that will coincide with an Economic crisis event. Perhaps that is the shocker we are waiting for. But trading is like anything else. Sometimes you have to step back before you can go forward. I do not see a major correction in gold because support is too solid in the 1000-1300 level. It is the top of these Primary and Uptrend Channels that we need to watch. Moving above that could cause a spike panic to the upside to test the Breakout Line. Then there would be a mini crash, rebuilt support, and then get ready for the moon shot. So yes, buying option well out of the money but below the Breakout line could prove to be a home run. But with options, it is always about time.”

    Got bonds? LMAO

    http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Clarification%2007-15-2011.pdf

  212. Confused In NJ says:

    194.There Went Meat says:
    July 16, 2011 at 8:25 am
    We either kill off Boomers with denial of medical care or whack half a generation of the young by starting a war.

    Those are the choices.

    If you deny Boomers Chemotherapy, they’ll live longer, so you can only deny Medical Care which doesn’t kill you.

  213. Fabius Maximus says:

    #197 Shore

    If you want to drag this back to WW2, there is an interesting paralles here. You can draw a straight parallel beween O and the wingnuts and FDR and the America First Committee. I suspect the outcome will be the same.

    Whats old, becomes new again.

  214. Fabius Maximus says:

    #200 Shore,

    What do high school dropouts have to do with the death of the middle class. If they dropped out there is a good chance they never made it to the middle class unless they were already there by birth. If they they were at poverty level and did make it to the middle class would that be because they did work hard and landscape, cut hair etc.

    US high school drop out rate is about 3.5%. Considering that against the rest of the world it is very low considering you hold kids in school until 18. Most of europe will have a basic education grade at 16. Can you read write and do basic math to get a job in retail. Beyond that advanced level, blue/ white color jobs grade at 18 and college on from there. The UK averages 25% of kids that will leave school and look to enter the workplace full time at age 16.

    http://www.despair.com/potential.html

  215. cobbler says:

    The greatest mistake I ever did was taking a job offer from NJ over the one from Amsterdam when I’d been a postdoc 22 years ago. I never expected that in 2011 thinking people like shore would prefer national default to the return to Clinton-level tax rates.

  216. sas3 says:

    #221… one big fear is that the boomers will spend $200k+ a month in medicare money for staying “alive” as a vegetable, and their family/friends will still somehow blame with a straight face that a small social program somewhere is the reason for the country’s financial problems.

  217. Confused In NJ says:

    225.sas3 says:
    July 17, 2011 at 1:12 am
    #221… one big fear is that the boomers will spend $200k+ a month in medicare money for staying “alive” as a vegetable, and their family/friends will still somehow blame with a straight face that a small social program somewhere is the reason for the country’s financial problems.

    Provenge, recently approved by Medicare for Prostate Cancer, gives you four additional months of life for $100K. The government did that, not the boomer. I personally told my Congressman he was insane to support such. $100K for a cure Yes!, for four additional months as a Vegetable, No!

  218. Daniel says:

    After reading your blog post I browsed your website a bit and noticed you aren’t ranking nearly as well in Google as you could be. I possess a handful of blogs myself and I think you should take a look here: http://dominateseowithwordpress.com You’ll find it’s a very nice tool that can bring you a lot more visitors. Keep up the quality posts

  219. Jana Renner says:

    This topic is so relevant to our industry right now. Sellers often times refuse to see the reality of the market, but it is not all doom and gloom. I try to stress the savings that my clients will see when they purchase their new home. Yes, they will get less for their home than they would have in 2005, but they are also paying less for the new home they are purchasing. I also try to show sellers similar properties to theirs when pricing their home. It sometimes helps them come to grips with what the competition is doing. Thanks for the great post!

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