June Existing Home Sales Dissapoint

From the WSJ:

Home Resales Decline Again as Buyers Hesitate

Existing-home sales in June fell to a seven-month low, and the number of contract cancellations soared, signaling that buyers are rethinking home purchases amid national economic uncertainty.

Sales decreased 0.8% from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.77 million, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday. It was the third-straight monthly drop and puts this year’s pace behind last year’s 4.91 million homes sold, which had marked the weakest sales in 13 years.

The median sales price was $184,300, up 0.8% from $182,900 a year earlier.

“The housing market has been two steps forward, then two steps back,” said Chris Mayer, an economics professor at Columbia University. “This is a sign of the lack of progress in developing a mortgage market that can take us past the housing crisis.”

Sales were down 5.2% in the Northeast and 1.7% in the West, while other regions saw modest gains; sales were up 0.5% in the South and 1% in the Midwest. A separate report released Wednesday showed one bright spot for sales was Florida. Second-quarter home sales in Miami were up 13.5% from last year, and hit a five-year high, according to brokerage Douglas Elliman.

The overall decline in home sales “suggests that the recent deterioration in economic conditions has already hit the housing market,” according to Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist at the Toronto-based Capital Economics.

From Bloomberg:

Existing-Home Sales in U.S. Unexpectedly Fall 0.8% to a 4.77 Million Rate

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly declined in June to a seven-month low as the industry struggled to overcome rising unemployment and foreclosures.

Purchases dropped 0.8 percent to a 4.77 million pace, data from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. The median projection in a Bloomberg News survey called for a gain to 4.9 million. Inventories increased, more contracts were canceled and 30 percent of transactions last month were of distressed dwellings, the figures showed.

Stricter lending rules, unemployment above 9 percent and delays in processing foreclosures mean it may take years to reduce the number of distressed properties on the market even as all-cash purchases have recently helped buoy demand. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last week said the decline in confidence and lack of job growth that are impeding consumer spending are also keeping real estate “depressed.”

“The market continues bumping along the bottom, with every move ahead matched by a disappointing setback,” said Richard DeKaser, an economist at Parthenon Group in Boston. “As long as the risk of further price declines is appreciable, buyers and lenders alike are going to remain skittish. For there to be a meaningful rebound in sales, we’ll probably have to wait until 2012.”

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193 Responses to June Existing Home Sales Dissapoint

  1. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    More Americans to exit homeownership

    Political deadlock mixed with terrible housing market conditions will eventually turn America into a society of renters, according to the latest Housing Market Insights report from Morgan Stanley.

    High rates of mortgage delinquency, foreclosures and liquidations are turning homeowners into renters, analysts at the investment banking giant said, lowering homeownership rates and increasing demand for rentals.

    And it appears even federal institutions are giving up on implicitly supporting what used to be the cornerstone of the ideal American life.

    In the Treasury Department white paper on reforming the government-sponsored enterprises, a suggested change to housing policy was put forward: “The administration believes that we must continue to take the necessary steps to ensure that Americans have access to an adequate range of affordable housing options. This does not mean our goal is for all Americans to be homeowners.”

    During the housing bubble, homeownership rates increased from 66% to 69%, an all-time high. Today, that number is just below 65%, according to Morgan Stanley researchers Oliver Chang, James Egan and Vishwanath Tirupattur.

    The analysts expect this will decline further to 59.7%, driving multifamily vacancies down and rents up. The researchers derived this estimate by taking the number of delinquent homeowners likely to be foreclosed, and moving them into the rental category.

  2. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  3. Mike says:

    FROM YESTERDAY THIS SAYS IT ALL In a report titled, “Are There Any Rungs Left on the Housing Ladder?”, Dubitsky dives into demographic data, painting a bleak picture for home sellers who are largely dependent on two groups of buyers: veteran homeowners who now have less desire to buy homes as they focus on retirement, and young buyers who are getting paid less while carrying significant student debt. THE REST WILL GET THE LADDER KICKED OUT FROM UNDER THEM

  4. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Hamptons Home Prices Climb as Luxury Beachside Properties Attract Buyers

    Home prices in New York’s Hamptons, the Long Island resort towns favored by summering Manhattanites, increased 4.2 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier as buyers opted for more expensive beach properties.

    The median price of homes that sold in the quarter rose to $937,500 from $900,000 a year earlier, according to a report today by New York appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate. Thirty-nine percent of all sales completed in the Hamptons and Long Island’s North Fork were for houses priced at $1 million or more, the second-highest market share for such properties in three years.

    “I’d look at the market as stabilized but punctuated with very visible trophy property sales,” Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, said in a telephone interview. “This is a phenomenon we saw in Long Island, Brooklyn, Queens, Manhattan and Westchester. Across the region, the top end of the market outperformed the overall market.”

    Luxury homes are attracting buyers as Wall Street executives spend bonuses and employment improves, said Judi Desiderio, president of Town & Country Real Estate in the Hamptons. New York City’s financial industry showed a net gain of 10,400 jobs in the 12 months through May. The city’s overall jobless rate was 8.6 percent that month, unchanged from a 25- month low in April and down 1 percentage point from a year earlier, the state Department of Labor said on June 16.

  5. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    N.J. has 7th highest closing costs, Bankrate says

    Closing costs in New Jersey are the seventh highest in the country and up from ninth place last year, according to a Bankrate survey released this week.

    This year, average loan origination and title fees on a $200,000 mortgage averaged $4,589 in New Jersey, the survey found. In 2010, closing costs were $4,110, according to Bankrate.

    Nationwide, the figure was $4,070 this year, up 8.8 percent from last year.

    Most of the increase is tied to origination fees, which nationwide rose 10.3 percent.

    That stems mostly from new costs lenders now face with stricter lending regulations, said Greg McBride, senior financial analyst for Bankrate.com.

    Consumers should shop around before making a decision, he advised.

    “Not every lender is charging the same price, so it’s important for consumers to apply with and get quotes from more than one lender,” McBride said.

    Industry professionals said they aren’t surprised closing costs are up.

    “Changes by regulators have added to the bottom line of the consumer, and lenders have struggled to retain and create profitability during this terrible real estate market,” said Keith Gumbinger, vice president with the Pompton Plains-based mortgage research company HSH.com.

    “All those changes do have business costs, which ultimately are passed along to (the consumer),” he added.

  6. gary says:

    “I’m saying it bluntly, that this administration is the greatest wet blanket to business, and progress and job creation in my lifetime,” Steve Wynn said in response to a question about Las Vegas real estate.

    “The guy [Obama] keeps making speeches about redistribution, and maybe we ought to do something to businesses that don’t invest or hold too much money,” Wynn said. “We haven’t heard that kind of talk except from pure socialists.”

    Wynn described himself as a Democratic businessman, and supporter of Harry Reid, before adding that, “I support Democrats and Republicans.”

    “The business community in this country is frightened to death of the weird political philosophy of the president of the United States,” Wynn said.

    Any Questions?

  7. gary says:

    I didn’t think so.

  8. gary says:

    “The housing market has been two steps forward, then two steps back,” said Chris Mayer, an economics professor at Columbia University. “This is a sign of the lack of progress in developing a mortgage market that can take us past the housing crisis.”

    When the f*ck has the housing market been two steps forward? What did I miss? This next leg down is going to be f*cking brutal. Shiller states another 20% decline and it’s going to happen rapidly. Anyone who purchased from 2003 through 2008 got hornswoggled of epic proportion.

  9. gary says:

    Inventories increased, more contracts were canceled and 30 percent of transactions last month were of distressed dwellings, the figures showed.

    In the immortal words of BC Bob: Sell? Sell to whom?

  10. gary says:

    The Federal Reserve is actively preparing for the possibility that the United States could default as a deadline for raising the government’s $14.3 trillion borrowing limit looms, a top Fed policymaker said on Wednesday.

    When time is Housewives of NJ on?

  11. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “Shiller states another 20% decline and it’s going to happen rapidly.”
    Gary, I can appreciate your passion here but shiller’s 20% correction is over a long 20 year time horizon, includes inflation and its only one remotely possible scenario, not the one he thinks is most likely. In reality there will probably be nothing exciting or eventful about the remainder of this correction. That’s what my magic 8 ball says anyway…

  12. sas3 says:

    Gary, you agree with a complaint that O is not friendly enough towards businesses?

    I have only one thing to say:

    ¡uʍop ǝpısdn ʎןǝʇǝןdɯoɔ sı ɔıboן ɹnoʎ

  13. gary says:

    Neanderthal,

    Right. It’s contained to subprime, buy now or be priced out forever, we’re insulated… should I go on? We’re in a death spiral and it’s accelerating. I’m starting to see 4/2 splits in haughtyville with “4” handles and the clock is ticking. Please… spare me as there is zero evidence to support anything else. Increased inventory, staggering debt and unemployment, distressed sales…. the end.

  14. Fabius Maximus says:

    #6 gary

    Yes, I have a question, do you support his views on China? Wynn gets 80% of his revenue from China. Relying that heavily on a commun1st gvmt, well he is a gambler.

    September will be our fifth anniversary in the People’s Republic of China in Macau, and we love it there. We are so grateful to be part of that market and to be allowed to participate in that community. We find the political environment, the regulatory environment, the human resource environment that we’re in to be absolutely delicious. Life is quite straightforward in China. The government is predictable. Our employees are eminently trainable. They’re anxious to please. They have a fabulous attitude, whether they’re local Macau people, mainland Chinese people, folks from the Philippines, they’re just wonderful and all of that’s come together to help us deliver the kind of product that we’ve always been delivering.

  15. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Unfortunately I just don’t share that same perspective. My central nj town is holding its own at high levels. Its unfortunate for most new families and bubble sitters that prices are still so unafordable but there are few likely scenarios that can change that. Although im still overall negative on the sector I continue to be shocked at how resilient nj real estate is proving to be in light of the worst national recession in decades.

  16. gary says:

    Fabius,

    Exactly. He’s getting 80% of his revenue from China so what does that say about the state of the state here?

  17. sas3 says:

    #14, hatred towards the democratic wing of the Corporate Party trumps logic. O is W-lite in policy (though W-dark in complexion), and he gets accused of actually fighting for the general public.

  18. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    I get a real kick about a casino owner telling us about “business” – like he has any f’g experience running a real business. He’s working in a f’g protected market. Let see them legalize gambling all over the entire world and see how much of a f’g genius Stev Wynn is compared to today.

    I do not like the O-man. I voted for the clown and he has been a major disappointment.

    The O-man is as friendly to business as any president in the past 50 years. Of course when I say business I mean those businesses that own the US government – Wall Street, Defense Contractors, Automakers, Big Oil.

    He, like every president in the past 50 years could give a sh*t about small business in this country and the small business community is the only area of the economy involving anything like real capitalism.

    I hope they do start taxing capital gains as ordinary income. I’ll get a chuckle out of all the douchebags flipping paper for a profit talking about the “killing of capitalism” as if what they are doing every day has jack sh*t to do with capitalism.

  19. gary says:

    This one sold for $850,000 in Oct., 2005. It’s currently listed at $639,000 with a $110,000 reduction in asking as of June. It’s on the market for 180+ days which probably means 360+ days:

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3015678856-524-Haddon-Pl-Franklin-Lakes-NJ-07417

  20. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    The home sales number was disappointing to me, I was expecting worse.

  21. grim says:

    We would need global debt default, 30% unemployment, and an infestation of radioactive zombie spider pigs to see an additional 20% down nominal.

  22. gary says:

    grim [21],

    If it all comes to fruition, do we say it “unexpectedly” happened? ;)

  23. gary says:

    Initial jobless claims up 10,000 to 418,000. Green shoots….

  24. 3b says:

    #3 Mike: And all the silly people in so many towns who voted yes for every spending referendum, because the clueless less BOE members, and Mayors/Council coupled with each towns band of clueless cheerleaders (usually mothers), have now reaped what they sown, because along with the demographics, staggering student loan debt, and poor job prospects, we now have staggering property taxes.

  25. 3b says:

    #4 Judy needs to uodate the paragraph below.

    Luxury homes are attracting buyers as Wall Street executives spend bonuses and employment improves, said Judi Desiderio, president of Town & Country Real Estate in the Hamptons. New York City’s financial industry showed a net gain of 10,400 jobs in the 12 months through May. The city’s overall jobless rate was 8.6 percent that month, unchanged from a 25- month low in April and down 1 percentage point from a year earlier, the state Department of Labor said on June 16.

  26. seif says:

    #6

    yeah…i have a question:

    why should i care what a whiner billionaire vain enough to get facial plastic surgery says? he gets 70% of his business from china and the far east any way. another big U.S. business with most of their workforce overseas. the guy looks like liberace with dark hair.

  27. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    #15 – Neand

    Brigadoon-on-Delaware?

    …My central nj town is holding its own at high levels. …

  28. gary says:

    Rick Santelli once again gutting the panel with shards of broken glass.

  29. Fabius Maximus says:

    #16 gary

    I suppose it is smart to rely 80% on a communist gvmt that can kick you out of the country at any point. Read up on what Japan did to IBM after the war.

  30. 3b says:

    #gary: I thought that was funny too. As far as 2003 buyers, I am already seeing more than few instances where buyers who purchased in 2003 are going to take a loss based on their asking prices compared to comparable sold prices. 8 years and the owner will not make money.

    I bought my first House in 1987 sold it 10 years later for $2500 less than I paid for it, and that does not include all the improvements we made on it. It’s happening again, only this time it will be worse, much worse.

    Any questions.

  31. gary says:

    Fabius [29],

    Not a recommended practice but I ask again: what does it say about the state of the state here? Wynn is merely echoing the mind-set of many other businesses. So, what’s the solution?

  32. 3b says:

    #11 I think you are way to optimistic. After the last bubble.bust, we eventually had a turn around in the economy, even when the housing market was still in the basement. This time around there is no economic recovery. Where are all the young buyers going to come from? How can they afford to buy with so much student loan debt outstanding. I bought my first house in my 20’s as did many of my friends. Most of us had no student loan debt, and those that did, it was 5k or less. I don’t see those 20 something year old buyers out there today.

  33. 3b says:

    #13 gary I am starting to see 4/2 splits in haughtyville with “4″ handles and the clock is ticking.

    I told you you would!!!

  34. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    The U.S. homeownership rate has fallen below 60 percent when delinquent borrowers are excluded, a sign of the country’s move toward a “rentership society,” Morgan Stanley said in a report today.

    The national rate, which stood at 66.4 percent at March 31, would be 59.7 percent without an estimated 7.5 million delinquent homeowners who may be forced into renting, according to Morgan Stanley analysts led by Oliver Chang. The lowest U.S. homeownership rate on record was 62.9 percent in 1965, the first year the Census Bureau began reporting the data.

    The homeownership rate reached an all-time high of 69.2 percent in 2004 as relaxed lending standards fueled home sales and President George W. Bush promoted an “ownership society.” Mortgage delinquencies, foreclosures and tighter credit for housing loans are reducing property buying, Chang said.

    “Taken together they are forcibly moving the country away from being an ownership society,” Chang, based in San Francisco, said in an e-mail. “This change is only beginning, and is moving the country towards becoming a rentership society.”

    U.S. existing-home sales dropped 0.8 percent in June to an annual pace of 4.77 million, a seven-month low, the National Association of Realtors reported today. The median projection in a Bloomberg News survey called for an increase to 4.9 million.

  35. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    Catherine Cook 21 just sold her internet company for 100 million. I don’t feel bad for the kids.

    3b says:
    July 21, 2011 at 8:48 am

    #11 I think you are way to optimistic. After the last bubble.bust, we eventually had a turn around in the economy, even when the housing market was still in the basement. This time around there is no economic recovery. Where are all the young buyers going to come from? How can they afford to buy with so much student loan debt outstanding. I bought my first house in my 20′s as did many of my friends. Most of us had no student loan debt, and those that did, it was 5k or less. I don’t see those 20 something year old buyers out there today.

  36. Shore Guy says:

    “unexpectedly”

    Unexpectedly, Sela Ward did not appear at my door last night wearing fishnets and a corset. Unexpectedly, she did not come to my door the night before. Or, quite unexpectedly, the night before that. After so many days of such unexpected news, I expect she will be there this evening.

  37. gary says:

    3b [30],

    I used to buy into the fact that in can’t happen here (NJ/NY area) but for the first time in my life, I’m seeing real economic hardship occurring to family and friends. I never thought I’d see it. To think that a nominal 20% decline can’t happen is as foolish as thinking that prices go up forever.

  38. seif says:

    #31

    all it says is that china had an untapped market of a billion people who have gambling as an integral part of their culture. focusing all of those efforts over there and sending a ton of american jobs to india, china and others has created a disastrous economy over here where poor little stevie doesn’t have as many customers in vegas…because they are broke.

    how do you feel about what another billionaire says…”tax me more. i pay less taxes than my secretary.”

  39. gary says:

    Shore,

    I love Sela Ward! :)

  40. 3b says:

    #37 gary: I agree with you. I am seeing the same thing.

  41. Shore Guy says:

    “I love Sela Ward! :)”

    I am not partial to dark hair, but I make a large exception for Sela.

  42. gary says:

    seif,

    Again, he’s saying what many others are thinking. So, what’s the solution?

  43. Shore Guy says:

    “To think that a nominal 20% decline can’t happen is as foolish as thinking that prices go up forever.”

    It may not happen in many places, where the collapse happened quickly. Here? I don’t know. It could be like a pitri dish with bacteria doubling in number every minute, where 5 minutes before the dish is completely filled there are some signs of growth, but nothing that catches one’s attention.

  44. Mikeinwaiting says:

    “Anon E. Moose says:
    July 20, 2011 at 10:41 am

    Michelle [46];

    In what part of the world does a 1987-built “a four-bedroom, three-bathroom bi-level (but a good bi-level – it has a very open layout), a big yard, on a dead end” go for $350k?”

    Moose, In NJ of course ,all you want at 200k. Get you a 4bd colonial for under 3. Check GSMLS for Vernon NJ.

  45. seif says:

    you tell me. the repub congress campaigned on “jobs, jobs, jobs” but have only provided legislation on abortion and union busting. not a single jobs bill. not one.

  46. 3b says:

    #23 And the little tid bit below is why I pay absolutely no atterntion to so called economsits, and experts, or in this case a chief global strategist. Claims have been up almost every week for the last 3 or 4 months, but this clown maakes the statment below.

    That claims were a bit higher than expected is a bit annoying but we still believe the overall trend in claims is lower,” Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at BTIG LLC, wrote in a note”

  47. Shore Guy says:

    “That claims were a bit higher than expected is a bit annoying but we still believe the overall trend in claims is lower,”

    “Whilst we would have preferred not to have engaged the iceburg, it is clear that the performance of Titanic was everything we had hoped until that unfortunate moment.”

    Capt. Edward Smith, Ships Master

  48. Xroads says:

    Gary, fab or anyone else
    what % of the u.s. Budget is borrowed from the same communist gvmt?

    “I suppose it is smart to rely 80% on a communist gvmt that can kick you out of the country at any point. Read up on what Japan did to IBM after the war.”

  49. gary says:

    And the Messiah insisted on a $787,000,000,000 spending plan that claimed to keep UE under 8% and create shovel ready jobs. We already know that the republicans are evil and Bush is the anti-chr1st. I want to know what magic wand the Choosen One will wave to solve the economic crisis.

  50. grim says:

    I have plenty of shovel ready jobs that I’m *still* waiting on the building department to give me a permit for.

  51. V23 says:

    I’ve been reading these threads for a while now and I must say, they are quite entertaining and educational at the same time. However, it is giving me second thoughts about my offer I just put on a home…..

  52. chicagofinance says:

    Best secure your shovels…..

    grim says:
    July 21, 2011 at 9:21 am
    I have plenty of shovel ready jobs that I’m *still* waiting on the building department to give me a permit for.

  53. grim says:

    If you found a house you liked, in an area you liked, at a price that made financial sense for you, what is giving you pause?

    Folks, we were right, we won. Buy today and you are buying at a 25% discount.

    Collectively, we have saved millions by waiting.

    Now, are you the kind of person that loses sleep over possibly seeing an item discounted to 30% a year later after you’ve just purchased it for 25% off?

  54. Anon E. Moose says:

    Sas3 [12];

    Gary, you agree with a complaint that O is not friendly enough towards businesses?

    I have only one thing to say:

    ¡uʍop ǝpısdn ʎןǝʇǝןdɯoɔ sı ɔıboן ɹnoʎ

    Logic upside down? You believe then that it is business which is not friendly enough towards O? And what is you explanation for that?
    . . .

  55. V23 says:

    #53

    The pause is for the uncertainty that perhaps the market will not drop only 5% (which I can live with), but even moreso. The home, rate and location matches everything we would like but it’s not knowing whether the housing market will get a little worse or tremendously worse.

  56. gary says:

    grim [53],

    When not only one, but two people in the household have lost their jobs, that would be reason enough to pause. Even if one could purchase for cash, would it make sense? And let’s say those two people got open-ended contracts; would that be adequate for a bank to grant a loan, despite a stellar FICO?

  57. Anon E. Moose says:

    seif [45];

    the repub congress campaigned on “jobs, jobs, jobs” but have only provided legislation on abortion and union busting. not a single jobs bill. not one.

    Opposing Obamacare was a jobs initiative. How many $30,000/yr employees can a business afford to hire when the price tag just got raised by $3,000/yr per due to mandatory medical coverage (unless, of course, the business is a friend of “O” and is granted a waiver – think unions, GM … mom and pop shops need not apply for those).

    Cut, Cap and Balance that just passed the house is a jobs bill. unlike Dems, Reps know that gov’t can’t create gobs by mandating them through legislation. Even government jobs come at the cost of the taxes extracted form the private sector to pay for them.

  58. NJGator says:

    Rode the NJCL to Point Pleasant Beach last night. How the heck do people commute daily past Long Branch and not kill themselves? 2 hours one way – IF there are no delays.

    As usual, the conductor on the NJCL was too lazy to calculate how much it cost to extend my journey off my $169 monthly down to PPB, so I got a free ride. It’s no wonder NJT is going broke.

    My local friends were bummed that it was cloudy and that our friend from Austin, TX couldn’t “SEE” the beach. I welcomed the cool breeze (much better than 105 heat index in NYC) and the after dinner Kohr’s custard still tasted just as good.

  59. Shore Guy says:

    “it is giving me second thoughts about my offer I just put on a home…..”

    Feeling unease is probably a sign of going in with your eyes open. Those who feel fully-secure in their decision may, in fact, be delusional. Of course, if one has concerns, a deal can always die in attorney review.

  60. nj escapee says:

    Moose, you make some good points about taxes and healthcare costs however that does not compute as job creation but maybe some jobs preservation. Demand will stimulate jobs creation.

  61. Shore Guy says:

    “How the heck do people commute daily past Long Branch”

    It is a dreadful trip.

  62. gary says:

    The new proposed National Anthem according to the Oblammy Administration:

    I’d like to buy the world a home and furnish it with love,
    Grow apple trees and honey bees, and snow white turtle doves.
    I’d like to teach the world to sing in perfect harmony,
    I’d like to buy the world some Hope and keep it company.

  63. mrdenis says:

    Shore Guy ,when i started on Wall st in the 70’s I took the train from Manasquan …2 hours one way …if you were lucky

  64. Shore Guy says:

    “Demand will stimulate jobs creation.”

    And demand will come with jobs, and jobs will come when we make things that we need — reducing our need to buy things from others — and that others want to by at the price that provides value to them. Germany has a well-paid workforce and produces goods the world wants. I recall that they even run a trade surplus with China.

  65. V23 says:

    #59

    While that should make me feel better, if the outcome will be the same regardless of the amount of information I know, perhaps ignorance is bliss?

    Thanks for the insight, you guys are probably right. We’ll find out by tomorrow whether or not they accept our offer. After living in New Jersey my entire life, it’s about time we move to a place where 400k can actually buy a nice home with some land.

  66. gary says:

    Shore [64],

    We produce reality shows and at least one new hamburger franchise daily… isn’t that products that the world wants? :o

  67. Shore Guy says:

    mrd,

    I always drove to jobs and was looking at some new jobs in NY and in JC. So, I grabed the train a little north of Manasquan and used the trips to the interviews as a test. Two or three of the trips I took, the train broke down. Even when not mechanically challenged, the trip was life draining. The last trip back home, the one before I said bag any job that requires a daily train commute, I noticed that everyone seemed grey, — suits, hair, skin — life had been sucked out of them.

  68. sas3 says:

    Moose… The corporations want to push the envelope and try to get more and more.

    They know that in order to continue the game, they need to tell the public that there is a good guy (GOP) and a bag guy (dems). If W did the same thing that O did (e.g. 787B stimulus, they’d have hailed the tax cut component), but under O, it is “spending”. Clearly the public will wise up if the corporations complain about finances under a GOP plan.

    Way too many people are willing to get indulged in this silly fight.

    Fair criticisms of O:
    Call for O to end wars? Call for O to be tough on banks? Call for O to make taxes more flat (e.g. cap gains or carried interest cr@p)? Call for repeal of patriot act? May be conservatives can criticize him on his support for lifting DADT (though they cannot say that while crying “freedom”)…

    Illogical criticisms:
    Tough towards businesses, easy on illegal immigrants, kenyan, muslin, silk, etc. (do you really believe that?)

    Some people are willing to shill for a company that lays them off, hires a H1B (I know enough body shop people), and wants to carry water for that company, while poisoning themselves with the hatred for that H1B guy (that poor sod is also often exploited by the body shop — way too many shady things in that area… anyone that blows the cover would need witness protection). Now, the “small businesses” are the body shops, the oil sheiks and chinese “investors”, and the main corporations that lay off the guys.

  69. 2Cents says:

    grim says: If you found a house you liked, in an area you liked, at a price that made financial sense for you, what is giving you pause? Folks, we were right, we won.

    Why be logical and sensible to this circle jerk of malcontents you’ve created? You’re Dr. Frankenstien, you created this hell hole of negativism no matter what. Most people ‘do’, are productive, optimistic and bright hope going forward making the best of the cards they’re delt. Others complain ad nauseum beating the same drum.

    This is your best Grim, and now you’re trying to reason with it? You’ve amassed a forum of malcontents, that’s painfully clear….and not even you can tame this beast or even try to get it to be reasonable or rational. They’ve got nothing better else to do than strike this same, singular, one negative note.

  70. sas3 says:

    #57…

    Imagine how many good employees a small company can attract if there are good medical benefits for a mere 3k a year? Without Obamacare, they’d have to pay a lot more for health care — or pass on the health care costs to employees (which is equivalent to a lower salary).

    Looks like a few people here drank the kool-aid

  71. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    “And the Messiah insisted on a $787,000,000,000 spending plan that claimed to keep UE under 8% and create shovel ready jobs.”

    = $787,000,000,000 handed out to campaign contributors to stimulate themselves.

  72. Al Mossberg says:

    55,

    V23,

    Sure makes you think doesnt it.

    As clot would say. The stench of death in this country is oppressive these days and its about to get worse. Im bending over, spreading my cheeks, waiting for someone to blow some sunshine up my _ss

  73. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Speaking of the great infrastructure stimulus plan – it’ll be interesting to see how the power grid holds up to this heat wave.

  74. gary says:

    2cents,

    Why are you here then?

  75. Al Mossberg says:

    58.

    Gator,

    I know people that commute into the city from Barnegat via the Parkway. Its a sh_tty existence but at least on the train you can get things done. Email’s, phone calls etc.

  76. sas3 says:

    2Cents… FU. Grim never told anyone *never* to buy. In fact, not many here say that.. Grim, Clot, Shore, etc., gave me good advice when I was preparing to become a “bag holder”. They have been consistent in what they said: “prices are generally higher, but you can find good deals here and there”.

    This malcontent is very content with the decision to buy — and I am generally happy with price drops because the assessment also seems to keep dropping [of course within a reasonable 20-30% range, and not a 90% range drop].

  77. NJGator says:

    Shore 67 – Exactly. Even in my early 20s when I lived with my parents in Marlboro and commuted by train via Matawan, I had no energy to do anything other than make dinner and watch TV and read a book. My door to door was almost 2 hours each way.

    When Stu and I first bought our first half, my parents repeatedly would say to us. “You’ll get so much more here” or “Our taxes are so much lower”. A monthly train ticket to Penn from Glen Ridge = $169. Monthly from Matawan = $386. The difference x 2 is $434/month. I’d rather pay it in taxes and still have some quality of life.

  78. sas3 says:

    #71… “Simply Ravishing HEHEHE”

    You do understand that the 787B stimulus had a big tax cut component, right… or we don’t consider them tax cuts unless there is an accompanying chants of “government bad, small businesses good, government bad, small businesses good”…

  79. Shore Guy says:

    “You’re Dr. Frankenstien, you created this hell hole of negativism no matter what. ”

    Do we — Grim’s Zombies — get a hat, or a jacket with an emblem, or at least a secret handshake? Actually, I think the “hell hole” is caused by over taxation and over spending on things that do not being a reasonable return to those who play by the rules, work hard, and try to be a constructive forec in the lives of their neighbors, children, and wider community.

  80. Shore Guy says:

    Gator,

    Yea, but lil’ Gator doesn’t gert to grow up a Husky. So, I hope you can sleep at night.

  81. Shore Guy says:

    V23,

    Where is the sinkhole of despair, um, happy home?

  82. gary says:

    “You’re Dr. Frankenstien, you created this hell hole of negativism no matter what. ”

    The hell hole was created by the RE industry and peripheral industries. Those same industries that told me to take out a second mortgage to buy a new house to avoid a contingency on the first house. The same industry that also told me to lie to the bank and not tell them what I was using the loan for. There’s your f*cking hell hole.

  83. V23 says:

    #81

    Palmer, Ma – listed 400k. You’ll find it very easily.

  84. Outofstater says:

    #69 Was talking to a 25 y/o the other day. He has six months of living expenses set aside and is going for twelve. Then he’s going to save for a 20% dp on a house because he wants to have a workshop for a side business he’s planning and he wants a place that he owns. The economy scares him but he is being cautious and will do what he wants to do in spite of the doom and gloom out there.

  85. Shore Guy says:

    Palmer, I only know the name, probably from a sign on the Mass Pike.

    More people should look at leaving NJ. Not that they should actually go, but they should seriously look. There are many places where one can get far better housing value and a far better lifestyle, easily affordable even with a somewhat lower wage package.

  86. NJGator says:

    Shore 81 – He’d be a Mustang. I grew up in Marlboro, remember? And I must be like one of only 10 people from my graduating class that did not return to raise my family there. He’ll just have to deal with being a Ridger. Being able to play HS Ice Hockey will help him forgive us, I hope.

  87. sas3 says:

    Gator, or wait for the day when you would end up longing for a 2-hour commute away from Stu… and then move to Marlboro :)

  88. 3b says:

    #69 2cents/jets 12 Are you back again?? Why are you here? Hellhole of pessimism?? You guys created that with you rah-rah cheer leading only goes up nonsense. Now houses are out there (And yes in Brig on Hacky too), sitting there rotting away month after month, with a hell hole (as you say) annual tax bill.

  89. 3b says:

    #69 One further point, can you please point out when you have been reasonable and rationale? After all you did day prices were up in 26% in River Edge.

  90. Anon E. Moose says:

    2¢ [69];

    You prove yourself more ignorant every time you speak.

    I’m negotiating with a seller who now has a vacant house and two mortgage payments. He moved-up in the same town, and scalped the previous owner of his new place for over $100,000 off the most recent bubble-era sale. His only concession from his wishing price was $5k off what is $60k higher than what he himself paid for his (now extra) house a similar time ago. He wants to get paid on both ends.

    Bears get some, Bulls get some, but pigs get slaughtered.

    Another negotiation – Donald Chump owes about $600,000 on the property which is in absolute horrible condition – needs at least $75k in reno even to make it habitable. Comps in the negihborhood are $450k. He lists this wreck at $505k, and won’t even take an offer less than $475k to the bank for consideration.

    So if you’re so confident in the values available, and want to pony up $100k of your money for a silent minority position I’ll happily overpay and you can get reimbursed proportionately from the proceeds of any future sale of the property. Grim knows how to contact me.

  91. 1987 condo buyer says:

    #30

    Bought condo in 1987 for $132k, sold in 1999 for $92k

  92. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    I don’t get the long distance driving to work nuts. Briefly I had to drive from Long Island to Islim NJ every day for work. OMG what a nightmare the whole way, belt, SI, NJ, no break. Slowly over the next two or three weeks I noticed the same few Honda Accords, Toyota Camrys and Ford Tauruses were on the road with me every morning at six am. Guess cars that are cheap to fix, cheap to maintain, it was crazy. Sitting in a used Mercury Sable for four hours a day was torture. Funny not one person had a high end car. A BMW/Mercedes tune up, oil change and tires are super expensive. Imagine driving 1,000 miles a week in one of those cars. I would need 12 oil changes a month if I kept it up, and a new set of brakes and tires every year. On a sable an oil change is $20 bucks, four new tires $200 and brakes $200. Sad that in addition to doing that much driving you can’t even do it in a nice car. People are nuts that drive like that.

  93. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    12 months of living expenses for a 25 year old is what $3,000 bucks.

    Outofstater says:
    July 21, 2011 at 10:32 am

    #69 Was talking to a 25 y/o the other day. He has six months of living expenses set aside and is going for twelve. Then he’s going to save for a 20% dp on a house because he wants to have a workshop for a side business he’s planning and he wants a place that he owns. The economy scares him but he is being cautious and will do what he wants to do in spite of the doom and gloom out there.

  94. sas3 says:

    Long Island to Islim NJ

    Careful with your typos, or your Rep. King may investigate you :)

  95. Shore Guy says:

    John,

    That won’t even come close to paying for wii games, let alone lattes.

  96. Kettle1^2 says:

    Grim

    I have 9 pallets you can have but you would have to pick them up in middlesex ASAP. Email me and let know so I can set them aside!!!!??

  97. ithink ithink says:

    Grim, #53, exactly.

    We won in May 2008. Didn’t plan to buy at the bottom, just somewhere on the down slope that sized up well historically in a neighborhood we liked and it fit well for our commutes. We used the seller’s realtor, low balled, and took 18% off the OLP, 12% of LP + got a new roof. We’ve put in new windows, a new furnace, new sofa’s from pottery barn and mgbw, new coffee table made by ourselves, painted old chairs, tables, and a hutch (all made from real wood) from estate sales, we tore out carpet, painted one room 3’s time, retiled a bath once ourselves – a second time with a contractor to do it correctly, we’ve found a photo of an awesome 1981 halloween party in the wall and a newspaper from when the house was under-construction in the 60’s, we have current magazines and magazines from when the house was built to hopefully not repeat style mistakes, had great times learning with books and binos about the types of trees, birds and bugs in the yard, curb-alerted a push-mower (tip: when you discuss your push-mower plans and the old man neighbor says ‘god bless you’ … that’s a sign), had 1 horrible year shoveling, 2 awesome years snow blowing, 3 cozy fireplace winters, adopted 2 kittens from the regional animal shelter and finally this spring had a yard sale for all our stuff from the 1 bdrm garden apt. wedged between the train tracks and a bus stop that just wasn’t ‘us’ anymore.

    Thanks again to all the great tips, links, and data aggregated here. Congrats Grim, glad to see you’re enjoying yours now. Please update us when the buyer’s remorse kicks in, haha.

    “Life is what happens to you while you’re busy making other plans.”

  98. NJGator says:

    JJ 93- Half the fathers of my friends did this for years. They all moved from Staten Island or Brooklyn out to Monmouth County in order for their kids to grow up “in the country”. These men (and a few women NYC teachers) would make the drive back to Staten Island and Brooklyn to work every day for years. My uncle used to leave the house every day at 5am to get to his job at the Brooklyn Navy Yard. My father used to easily put 50k miles/year on his car. Most of them had stay at home wives that took care of everything related to the house and the kids.

  99. 3b says:

    #92 Ironically Co-ops in Brig on Hacky are starting to move closer to 1987 prices as well.

  100. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    Oddly homes in brooklyn have skyrocketed over the years much more than NJ and are now richer and nicer neighborhoods,

    NJGator says:
    July 21, 2011 at 11:21 am

    JJ 93- Half the fathers of my friends did this for years. They all moved from Staten Island or Brooklyn out to Monmouth County in order for their kids to grow up “in the country”. These men (and a few women NYC teachers) would make the drive back to Staten Island and Brooklyn to work every day for years. My uncle used to leave the house every day at 5am to get to his job at the Brooklyn Navy Yard. My father used to easily put 50k miles/year on his car. Most of them had stay at home wives that took care of everything related to the house and the kids.

  101. Happy Renter says:

    [53] “If you found a house you liked, in an area you liked, at a price that made financial sense for you, what is giving you pause?”

    Nothing would give me pause under these conditions, and some people who do their homework and have the right circumstances in their lives, buying a house at a good price can make sense.

    But for me, making “financial sense” involves factoring in the risk of job loss/relocation, skyrocketing taxes, and the growing desire to get out of NJ/NYC as it gets more crowded and less enjoyable. These factors, and others, against a backdrop of a morbid economy and a dysfunctional government at local/state level (to say nothing of the national level) mean that for me, and for many others, the cost of buying into this place right now is still too high to make financial sense.

    Anyone who frequents this blog is already far ahead of most of the population in terms of taking off the rose-colored glasses, so I suspect the forum members around here who pull the trigger on a house purchase have done their homework and things make financial sense for their situation. I think it’s rare for even the gloomiest of posters around here to bash fellow posters on this forum for buying a house; usually the disdain is directed to NAR, the media in general, and Joe Sixpack who still have no clue what’s going on and provide endless fodder.

  102. 3b says:

    #01 And oddly more than af ew areas in the suburbs are starting to look lke Brooklyn 25 years ago..

  103. 4c says:

    53 I start thinking that the other alias of grim is 2cents

    Who says we are holding out for a further “5%” (how did you come up with this number)? I believe there will be at least 20% off the next 3 years or so which translates to quite an amount of savings especially nowadays with this kind of uncertainty.

    Is 20% that far off? Not at all: we are still 60% up nominally since 2000 according to CS but you make it sound that we reached bottom. A little humility goes a long way – the only reason NJ homes kept some value despite taxes and debt are the bank bailouts. The stench of death guy is closer to reality than the newly discovered re bulls.

  104. 4c says:

    I don’t care if other people here buy now or later. This is their decision. If they prefer kitten memories and kitchen granite over hard earned savings that’s their call. However, I do mind if they are trying to convince me that buying now is not a bad financial move (5% off the bottom-yeah right-and unicorn is the new blog mascot)

  105. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [54] moose

    Sas3 believes in the oft-repeated democratic mantra that higher taxes are good for the economy. After all, Clinton hiked taxes and the economy skyrocketed. Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Would love to see how that works without an internet and tech cap-ex spending bubble.

  106. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [18] HEHEHE

    “I hope they do start taxing capital gains as ordinary income.”

    Got shorts on? (and I don’t mean clothing).

    If such a proposal ever looked as if it would gain traction, I would go heavily into shiny, ultrashort funds, and cash. Then, after the bottom falls out, into chinese stocks until the protectionists gain significant traction in DC.

  107. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [86] shore guy

    Palmer is a sh1thole of a town. In 1981, they had a bar there named The Glass Crutch. I and another pledge were being hazed there by having to drink lots of tequila. Then we went out drinking. Underage but never got carded once.

    We got thrown out of the Glass Crutch for being too drunk and obnoxious (as if that was possible). Later, we got pulled over and just as the driver was telling the cop we hadn’t been drinking, I jumped out of the car and booted. Fortunately, it was the old days, before the Ware case. Cop told us to get the fcuk out and we did.

  108. Barbara says:

    4c,
    I’ve been bubble sitting since 1999 and I’ve been doing this real estate thing long than anyone on this board except maybe BC. I just went under contract this week. Why? Because it is clear to me that this govt, rep or dem, will not and will never let this market correct itself. Ever. I said it a few weeks ago, I fully expect a “bulldozer bailout” in the coming year. Its not so crazy when we have had the banks sitting on ghost inventory that has been either abandoned or left with squatters for 3 plus years and going. With all that neglect, the American public will welcome this “prudent solution to these eyesores that are ruining their home values and inviting crime and putting our children in harm’s way”…..see what I did there?
    1999 prices will only happen in the event of the zombie apocalypse or, more likely a nifty reset via inflation. Having said that I will tell you what I told the sellers through my realtor when they were getting stubborn over a rock solid offer on the mostly dead higher end of the market in their town, and that is that I fully expect to lose money on this house in the coming months and years, but I will be seeing my kids through HS and may break even when all is said and done. Or not. I will be taking out the max mortgage and finding other things to do with my money, as I see housing as a consumption only.

  109. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [64] shore

    “Germany has a well-paid workforce and produces goods the world wants.”

    Proper emphasis should be on the latter clause in that sentence.

  110. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    Babs catching a knife near bottom still hurts.

  111. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    When even the Huffington Post calls BS on Obama, you know he is working without a net:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nancy-altman/disentangling-social-secu_b_905227.html

    Not surprisingly, the MSM is not calling Obama’s bluff, and the great unwashed will believe that Obama’s hands were tied by the evil GOP when he stopped SS checks from going out. But some voices in the wilderness did; I am simply surprised it was Huffpo.

    Must be the new corporate overlords at Huffpo, forcing them to cover the news with a little less partisanship.

    What say you, Jamil? Surprised you aren’t all over this.

  112. Barbara says:

    JJ it hurts, no doubt. It really depends on ones circumstances. Waiting for this family has also hurt, a lot. We need a better school system and better neighborhood. If you already have that but just wanted to buy up a little, then maybe taking on that knife at the bottom still doesn’t make sense.

  113. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [112] redux

    This part got my attention:

    “Because the federal government is the plan sponsor, the president should be especially careful to act as a fiduciary. That means ensuring that all plan income and assets are carefully accounted for and used for their intended purpose. It certainly means doing everything possible to ensure that all beneficiaries receive their scheduled benefits on time and in full. ”

    snip.

    Imagine if Obama and Turbotax Timmay claimed they couldn’t send out the checks, and the lawsuits flooded into Judiciary Square? I would love to see the answer from DOJ that invokes Sovereign Immunity as a defense.

  114. 4c says:

    113 Sorry but need is an excuse. You could rent or private school or … if you stand to lose 100K-200K. The only reason for buying in this economy is kitchen tiling and kitten memories.

  115. 3b says:

    #09 B i do nto disagree totally with you, but still belive in the end the amrket wins,a nd cannto be manipulated no mater what the government does, and that includes a bulldozer bailout. That too I will be moving simply because the long time owner wnats to sell, and we have no intention of buying it for a number of reasons. Great rental, no increase in the 6 years there. I speak to the owner maybe once or twice a year. Sometimes it takes him weeks to even cash the check.

    Buying for me is only beong looked at a s a long term rental, and to avoid the potential of having to move every couple of years. Prices are down significnatly, and I fully expect them to continue to decline over the next 6 to 12 months which is my time frame for buying.

  116. Barbara says:

    4c
    private school at 20-25k per year x 2 kids plus rent, do you honestly think houses are depreciating at that rate? I don’t think you’ve thought this whole thing through. I assure you as a real estate investor, owner, NJRERE regular and 11 year bubble sitter, I have.

  117. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    Marginal tax rates for the affluent are nearly half of what they were 30 years ago
    In 1980, a household with income equivalent to $150,000 in today’s dollars had a marginal tax rate of 54%, compared to
    28% in 2011.
    • Two congressional acts were primarily responsible for this reduction in rates
    – Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 – reduced the highest marginal tax rate from 70% to 50% and the
    number of tax brackets from 16 to 13.
    – Tax Reform Act of 1986 – reduced the highest marginal rate from 50% to 31% and the number of tax brackets from 12 to
    four by 1990.
    • Since 1990, the top rate has increased to 35% and number of brackets has expanded to six.
    Relative to 30 years ago, affluent investors are keeping a far greater percentage of their income to spend, invest and give away.

  118. chicagofinance says:

    The idea with ARC was that you could get express to LB…

    NJGator says:
    July 21, 2011 at 9:58 am
    Rode the NJCL to Point Pleasant Beach last night. How the heck do people commute daily past Long Branch and not kill themselves? 2 hours one way – IF there are no delays.

  119. Barbara says:

    116 3b,
    in those circumstances I would certainly not buy now. You’ve got a good situation.

  120. 4c says:

    117 Concerning private schooling, there are many low cost alternatives such as parochial schools which I am sure won’t be worse than your school district unless you bought in millburn.

    Also I said private school OR rent OR … There are many options perhaps renting would have worked best for you. Best of luck anyways.

  121. gary says:

    The only reason for buying in this economy is kitchen tiling and kitten memories.

    I found myself nodding in agreement over that statement above. Just sayin’.

    One more thing about an additional 20% house price drop in our area: it’s just a matter of time. It’s not even a debate. In fact, it may be closer to 30%. More and more frequently I’m hearing about reduced benefits or no benefits becoming common place in the workplace. All of you, eventually, will lose your insurance and perks and will be working on a per diem basis. Once this happens, you will not have the means and/or stomach to attempt to purchase someone elses POS just because they think their dump is special. A year ago, I was preping my house for one more move. Now, I wouldn’t even dream of it.

  122. Barbara says:

    Why do so many think that Catholic schools are a viable alternative for everyone? They aren’t for this family.

  123. Shore Guy says:

    Barbara,

    I know a jewish family that sent their son to a well-regarded Catholic school instead of a local HS.

  124. Barbara says:

    gary,
    let me be clear. My wanting to raise my kids in a better neighborhood isn’t about some NJ vapid status whoring on my part. I’m literally tired of playing the weekly if not nightly game of “fire cracker, gun shot or car backfiring” game and Iw ould like my kid to grow up with neighborhood friends and be able to play outside without any supervision by the age of 15…..
    Again, if your circumstances are all about that kitchen tile, then maybe you should wait to buy. My reasons are a little more weighty.

  125. 4c says:

    123 Sure but renting perhaps is

    “Why do so many think that Catholic schools are a viable alternative for everyone? They aren’t for this family.”

  126. 3b says:

    #20 True. I do. But the months go fast, so we have to start soon. Moving is a pain however, to say the least, but a perfect time to de clutter as they say.

  127. Barbara says:

    124.
    we aren’t jewish, just non religious.

  128. All Hype says:

    Folks, we were right, we won. Buy today and you are buying at a 25% discount.

    Grim, this is a great statement. I have started to look for houses. Lord knows how long it will take as I believe housing prices will continue to fall now that the summer season is a bust.

    Thanks for hosting this blog.

  129. Barbara says:

    4c,
    it really isnt. Price out a 4 bedroom rental in a good town, k? Do some math.

  130. 3b says:

    #22 gary: there are lots of listings molding away in the land of unicorns in the mid 300’s, ultimately if the owners really want to sell, they will all go below the 300k mark. That would put prices for starter houses at around early 2000 levels. The currently higher priced listings will eventually follow, and down it goes like dominoes. There is absolutely no reason that if prices for starter houses touch 2000 levels, that they can fall back even more to late 1990’s levels.

  131. All Hype says:

    Meanwhile, the bond market goes crazy….

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/unbelievable-bond-market-chaos

  132. 3b says:

    #28 Most Catholic schools today have all non clerical teachers.

  133. 4c says:

    130
    Why do you need a 4br? I think that if you believed that you run the risk of loosing 30% of your house value and/or your job then you would cram your family in a 2 br condo for a couple of years.

  134. NJGator says:

    Anyone need a fun indoor activity for an oppressively hot day? If you visit everyone’s favorite realtor’s site, you are now greeted with the following message: “Hi there! Noticed you’re new to our site. Our friendly real estate experts are online, feel free to chat with us with any questions!” Come on Doom. You know you want to….

  135. Barbara says:

    4c,
    if I thought I would be losing, starting at 2011 prices, 30% of my home’s value not only would I cram into a 2 bedroom, I would be lining up my ducks to buy up rental properties like a tweaker with a Wallgreens card and a pocket full of Sudafed coupons. If you reread my posts, clearly that’s not what I think is going to happen.

  136. gary says:

    Barbara,

    I luv ya… you know it… not aimed at you, just my gut feeling and analysis on the whole thing. :)

  137. A.West says:

    Won’t you be my neighbor? Saw this house come on market in my development:
    http://www.weichert.com/38660514/

  138. gary says:

    Companies are laying off employees at a level not seen in nearly a year, hobbling the job market and intensifying fears about the pace of the economic recovery.

    Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO – News), Lockheed Martin Corp. and troubled bookstore chain Borders Group Inc. are among those that have recently announced hefty cuts, while recent government numbers underscore how companies have shifted toward cutting jobs.

    The cuts also reflect the shifting outlook of employers, many of whom had expected the economy to gain speed as the year progressed. Instead, growth has faltered.

    carry on….

  139. 4c says:

    136 haha no time to go over your posts but if you can profit no matter what what’s the point?

  140. Barbara says:

    140.

    I have no idea what you are talking about.

  141. Confused In NJ says:

    109.Barbara says:
    July 21, 2011 at 12:30 pm
    4c,
    I’ve been bubble sitting since 1999 and I’ve been doing this real estate thing long than anyone on this board except maybe BC. I just went under contract this week. Why? Because it is clear to me that this govt, rep or dem, will not and will never let this market correct itself. Ever. I said it a few weeks ago, I fully expect a “bulldozer bailout” in the coming year. Its not so crazy when we have had the banks sitting on ghost inventory that has been either abandoned or left with squatters for 3 plus years and going. With all that neglect, the American public will welcome this “prudent solution to these eyesores that are ruining their home values and inviting crime and putting our children in harm’s way”…..see what I did there?
    1999 prices will only happen in the event of the zombie apocalypse or, more likely a nifty reset via inflation. Having said that I will tell you what I told the sellers through my realtor when they were getting stubborn over a rock solid offer on the mostly dead higher end of the market in their town, and that is that I fully expect to lose money on this house in the coming months and years, but I will be seeing my kids through HS and may break even when all is said and done. Or not. I will be taking out the max mortgage and finding other things to do with my money, as I see housing as a consumption only

    I have two damaged pieces of Certainteed Woverine Encore vinyl siding in soft almond color which was discontinued. Waiting for them to bulldoze an abandoned house by me (> 2 years now) which had burst pipes inside and mold everywhere. When they go to tear it down, I’ll buy 2 squares of the siding from the wrecking crew.

  142. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    A.West says:
    July 21, 2011 at 1:38 pm

    Won’t you be my neighbor? Saw this house come on market in my development:
    http://www.weichert.com/38660514/

    That house is listed at only 785K, guy bought it for $590K in 1996, believe it or not 1996 was last bottom in real estate if you inflation adjust.

    So if he sold it for full asking he would get 195K return on his investment over 15 years.

    sounds good, but a 15 year treasury was at around 7% back then. Lets say 590K for house 10K closing for a total of 600K. 600K at 7% is 42K a year. So 15×42 is $630,ooo interest. However, lets say he invested the 42 K a year interest in the stock market, well that $630,ooo would be $1,630,000. Instead the actual house only went up 195K but wait he paid maybe 300K in taxes. A home is pure consumption, it is not an investment.
    Date Description Price % Chg $/sqft Source
    05/29/1996 Sold $590,000

  143. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    More room in Heaven for me!!!

    4c says:
    July 21, 2011 at 1:07 pm

    123 Sure but renting perhaps is

    “Why do so many think that Catholic schools are a viable alternative for everyone? They aren’t for this family.”

  144. Barbara says:

    142. Confused.
    Why wait? Wanna borrow my utility knife?

  145. Barbara says:

    JJ
    Read up on what the good Lord thinks about profits from interest. Your market voodoo isn’t going to get by St Peter. I’ll keep a seat warm for you ;P

  146. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    A jew can’t charge a jew interest. Catholics can charge interest and a jew can charge interest to anyone who is not a jew. I do recall several of my non practicing jewish friends not giving apartment deposits as by law landlord has to pay interest and a jew can’t charge a jew interest.

    Barbara says:
    July 21, 2011 at 2:05 pm

    JJ
    Read up on what the good Lord thinks about profits from interest. Your market voodoo isn’t going to get by St Peter. I’ll keep a seat warm for you ;P

  147. 4c says:

    141 sorry meant to say that arguing with people who can profit under any scenario (you) makes no sense. May I ask where you bought?

  148. Barbara says:

    4c
    Small town with few sales so no, I’m not posting the town. It us outside of Philly. I haven’t profited from a new purchase (I’m a landlord, was never in an equity game) since 1999 because I saw the nonsense start after the tech bubble and stayed away. Looking back I know I was too conservative, probably should have hung in there until about 02 but by 03 the market was dead to me and still is. If I thought it was going to drop 30% from this point, I would be getting ready to buy up more rental property. I never claimed to profit under any scenario.

  149. Outofstater says:

    Barbara – Congratulations! You’ve been looking for a long time and it sounds like you’ve found a good place for your family. A safe neighborhood has always been non-negotiable for me. Same with good schools. Everyone makes decisions based on their own situations at any given time – you made the right one for you. I would have done the same.

  150. NJGator says:

    It’s shaping up to be a long summer for the Essex County Board of Taxation. Just checked in because we haven’t gotten a hearing date and was told that we are still not scheduled yet. Was told that at the earliest we will be scheduled would be September.

  151. Juice Box says:

    Catholic school might soon be the only choice.

    Fund spat delays Memphis school start indefinitely

    MEMPHIS, Tenn. — The school board in Memphis says it will indefinitely delay the start of class because of a dispute over money with the city government.

    The board for Memphis City Schools voted 8-1 Tuesday night to postpone school until the City Council hands over $55 million in tax revenue it has set aside for the system this coming year, according to The Commercial Appeal. The school board says the city owes significantly more than that after several years of shortfalls.

    Board member Tomeka Hart says the school system has been patient and needs the money in its account to pay bills.

    City Council president Myron Lowery says some funding issues are tied up in court. He also says the city council supplies only about one-tenth of the schools’ budget.

    Classes had been scheduled to start on Aug. 8 for the more than 100,000 students in the district.

    Read more: http://www.sacbee.com/2011/07/20/3781292/fund-spat-delays-memphis-school.html#ixzz1SligR1GE

    http://www.sacbee.com/2011/07/20/3781292/fund-spat-delays-memphis-school.html

  152. Shore Guy says:

    Lindonwold ho!

  153. 4c says:

    149 thanks for the info. Do let know when you look around for rental property. This would signal capitulation. I would guess this point must be lower for rentals nowadays because of risk of unemployed tenants, of loss of depreciation deductions, etc

  154. Shadow of John says:

    Mount Holly? Yea, and Bound Brook too.

  155. Shore Guy says:

    Oy!

  156. Al Mossberg says:

    Im sending my kids to Catholic school. I would never let my kids be indoctrinated by a bunch of mindless NJEA idiots who were themselves educated by public school mindless idiots.

    The other reason is I want to shelter my kids from the offspring of section 8 and food stamp recipients.

    Public education is a costly farce that is destructive to the young mind. Catholic school isnt perfect but it mitigates the damage.

  157. sas3 says:

    #157… though beware of some priests!

  158. Libtard says:

    20 of 580 NJ public school districts are providing tax relief with Christie’s additional(?) state aid. Glen Ridge is the only district in Essex County. Fortunately, we are in the good company of Brigadoon-on-the-Hackensack.

    Captain Cheapo strikes again!!!

  159. sas3 says:

    If and when there is a market for small scale private schools with primary focus on learning from the text books and scoring well on exams, there is a big pool of people ready to establish and teach at those private schools. The kids may pick up an accent, but will score 800’s in SAT math.

  160. sas3 says:

    Al, then you wouldn’t want your kids to go to any of the top universities because there are too many “mindless liberal professors” there.

  161. sas3 says:

    Stu, when is your next meeting? I may have some fiat currency sitting idle…

  162. Juice Box says:

    re #157 – and Rabbis and Mullahs and Yogis, and Sensei etc etc. The kid touchers gravitate to teaching of the youth regardless of location or religion.

  163. Libtard says:

    At my new house in Glen Ridge on Thursday August 4th. We are still kicking butt too.

  164. Anon E. Moose says:

    Nom [106];

    We all know why sas3 thinks that businesses hate O. I was just giving her the opportunity to say it.

  165. 3b says:

    #59 Lib: Yes Bring on Hack gets back 141K, which the school board has “graciously” decided to gift to the town for tax relief. It is the least they can do after they called out the Mommy brigade to beat up the Mayor/& Council, and force them to pass the budget, when the residents overwhelmingly voted no.

  166. 3b says:

    #66 Sorry Brig on Hack

  167. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    I liked public school much better than catholic school, the beatings were less frequent and I picked up all types of bad habits. Where else could you give a kid a ride home at the break in your beat up old car only to realize he was one of the largest dealers on the east coast. He let me hold a few of his one pound pot packages. I felt like Nancy Botwin, was like I start you with a 1/4 pound a week, then 1/2 pound a week then a pound a week, maybe get you up to five pounds a week. I do say driving a one hundred dollar car with $1,000 pounds of pot in it at ten am in the morning in a neighborhood of million dollar homes would have been a good news story. Guy ended up being largest pot supply in SUNY system later one and sold his franchise when he graduated law school and is now a huge corporate attorney. Ran into one of his dealers in NYC a few months ago, he is a Partner in a law firm and the other dealer is now a filthy rich lawyer at a white shoe law firm. Apparantly drug dealers take an interest in law. Sad to say I missed my chance that day to be a Law Partner by turned down the job offer. I can safely say when that guy got his drivers license a few weeks later he has never been in a 100 dollar car since I took him for a ride. Only in public school can you get these opportunities at an early age. The middle aged corporate attorneys have a high stakes poker game every few months at one of their mansions. I was invited to attend. Needless to say I declined.

    We also had the hub cap stealer, radio thief, coke dealer, ticket scalper, stolen bike guy even had one guy aressted for man slaughter and the pride of my class made americas most wanted for kidnapping and sodomy of a minor, the holy trio of crimes. Did I mention my hs was rated number one that year in US news and world reports. I would hate to see a bad HS>

  168. Sidelined says:

    JJ – not debating the consumption point but the buyer didn’t likely pay cash and will receive add’l principal upon sale. Also need to adjust for rent paid.

    Barb – I am also planning on bidding on a prop currently listed at 36% off the price paid in ’05.

  169. chicagofinance says:

    sas3 says:
    July 21, 2011 at 4:01 pm
    Al, then you wouldn’t want your kids to go to any of the top universities because there are too many “mindless liberal professors” there.

    WSJ
    OPINION
    JULY 20, 2011

    Academia’s Crisis of Irrelevance

    As more students question rising college costs, professors defend useless research and their lack of teaching..

    By NAOMI SCHAEFER RILEY

    ‘Crisis of Confidence Threatens College.” So went a headline in the Chronicle of Higher Education this spring, describing a recent survey of the American public. “Public anxiety over college costs is at an all-time high,” the report concluded. “And low-income college graduates or those burdened by student-loan debt are questioning the value of their degrees.”

    In the face of such anxiety, one might expect college faculty to re-examine the financial priorities of universities, or at least put up a reasonable front of listening and responding to their critics. Instead, academics have circled the wagons, viciously attacking any outsider who dares to disagree with them, and insisting that reformers are not sophisticated enough to understand the system.

    In a book published last month, “The Faculty Lounges . . . And Other Reasons Why You Won’t Get the College Education You Paid For,” I argue that our system of higher education is focused too much on research and not enough on teaching. In fact, one 2005 study in the Journal of Higher Education suggests an inverse relationship between the amount of time spent in the classroom and a professor’s salary. It would seem that professors who spend their time writing are the ones most valued by our universities.

    College teachers have responded as one might expect to a publishing-pays, teaching-does-not incentive. As a 2009 report from the American Enterprise Institute pointed out, over the past five decades the number of language and literature academic monographs has risen to 72,000 from 13,000 while the audience for such scholarship “has diminished, with unit sales for books now hovering around 300.”

    In 2008, according to the bibliography review “Year’s Work in English Literature,” more than 100 new scholarly books on Shakespeare were published in English world-wide. Those books, whatever brilliant new insights they provided, represent thousands of hours lost to undergraduates who really could use a good classroom course on Hamlet.

    It doesn’t take a lot of digging to see that much academic research is trivial. But academics will defend it to the hilt. When I wondered, in a blog post on the Chronicle of Higher Education website, why J. Michael Bailey of Northwestern was hosting demonstrations of sex toys in his class, and questioned the value of his subject generally, I was told by a commenter on the website that, “psychiatrists, police officers, and others who deal with rapists and other sex offenders probably could use a course on human sexuality.”

    When I wrote about a University of Texas professor’s book, “Indian-Made: Navajo Culture in the Marketplace,” an academic emailed to say that “[the project on] the commercialization of Indian crafts, actually has some profound things to say about the role of indigenous peoples in modern capitalism.”

    After I suggested in a number of pieces that tenure is the reason that academics—even the most radical, incompetent or lazy—cannot lose their jobs, a professor wrote to tell me that I should “pick up an employment law textbook” because I didn’t understand that tenured professors can, under exigent circumstances, be fired. Thanks for the tip. And how often does that happen?

    A senior professor of psychology recently asked me how, if he didn’t have tenure, he would be able to write op-eds criticizing his department chair and his college administration while keeping his job. I asked him how the rest of the world gets by without regularly denouncing their bosses in a newspaper.

    At a recent conference where I spoke on collective bargaining in higher education, one professor questioned (and others in the room also fussed about) my right to speak on the subject without—she was incredulous—a Ph.D.! I might ask why a degree in medieval literature or molecular biology would qualify one to discuss the growing unionization movement on college campuses.

    When a recent report by the Center for College Affordability and Productivity suggested that many professors in the University of Texas system were not being very productive as teachers or researchers, three of them offered the Chronicle of Higher Education diaries purporting to document their labors. One professor wrote of spending hours looking into summer camp for her daughter so the professor could have time to work. Now there’s a problem other working parents don’t have.

    Another said he was going to read six (!) new books about Shakespeare this summer to prepare for his classes in the fall because “in order to be current there’s a tremendous amount more research that you need to be familiar with.” And these are the people who wanted to defend their salaries.

    There is nothing new in the observation that academics are removed from the real world. But professors should understand that their attitude won’t offer much protection as budgets get tighter and students get madder.

    Ms. Riley, a former Journal editor, writes frequently about post-secondary education.

  170. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    what is the relevance of 2005 prices? it is like saying I am buying a tech stock because it is 50% off March 10 2000 prices.

    The bubble started January 1 2000. Home prices normally rise 3% a year. Pretty much 33% more than 1999 prices would be a better metric. But since bubbles overshoot on the downside I would say anything priced at 30% or more than 1999 prices is overpriced. My town is back to 2001 prices.

    Sidelined says:
    July 21, 2011 at 4:55 pm

    JJ – not debating the consumption point but the buyer didn’t likely pay cash and will receive add’l principal upon sale. Also need to adjust for rent paid.

    Barb – I am also planning on bidding on a prop currently listed at 36% off the price paid in ’05.

  171. Barbara says:

    171.
    I would agree, JJ with your 2000 comparison, but I don’t think they will let it happen. If going by 2000 level I am admittedly over paying. If it does happen I think there will be more to worry about than my fat mortgage but I would probably choose default if I lost that much in a short time and just re buy something comparable with cash. I doubt I will face this scenario but have the goods and the guts to do it if I do. However aside from the bulldozer I think the other floor put down will be debtor’s prison.

  172. Double Down says:

    http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/Heirs-Lose-Fight-With-Government-to-Keep-Dads-Rare-1933-Gold-Coins-125908579.html

    Heirs Lose Fight With Gov’t to Keep Rare Gold Coins

    By Maryclaire Dane | Wednesday, Jul 20, 2011

    A jury has decided that a set of rare gold coins found in a bank deposit box rightfully belongs to the U.S. government.

    The decision, made on Wednesday, caps an unusual civil case that combined history, coin collecting and whether the set of rare $20 “double eagles” should have ever let the U.S. Mint in 1933.

    Federal prosecutors had asserted that the coins never circulated when the country went off the gold standard. Most of the batch was instead melted down.

    But Joan Langbord, the daughter of a Philadelphia jeweler, said she found the 10 coins in her father’s bank deposit bank after he died.

    She said that her father could have acquired them legally, perhaps through a trade of gold scrap.

    One 1933 double eagle sold for $7.6 million in 2002.

  173. A.West says:

    Once two people accept that housing is consumption not an investment, there’s no more point in them arguing over how much one decides to consume. If one person wants and can afford a nice steak dinner, while the other choses a subway sub, that’s up to them. Of course, it’s hard to predict exactly how much a house is really going to cost you during your ownership period.

  174. Kettle1^2 says:

    Why the F do diced tomatoes gave HFC in them!??

  175. grim says:

    Congrats Grim, glad to see you’re enjoying yours now. Please update us when the buyer’s remorse kicks in, haha.

    I’ve never burned through money at such a rapid pace. I don’t sleep at night anymore.

    I’m done, give it back!

    (I’ll post pics tomorrow – Foundation work is done, filled, yard is graded and leveled, new retaining walls are up. 27 trees down in the back yard. Radiant heat is getting finished on Monday, walkways are going in tomorrow, we got rough in approval for electrical today, waiting for plumbing roughs and we’ll close up all the walls)

  176. grim says:

    I’m on the fence about tearing off the cedar siding. It’s old, but it’s in great shape. It needs to be painted, but only because I don’t like the color choices.

    We patched up the cedar siding where we installed new construction windows in the interim (Anderson architect series full divided light casements and double hungs, incredibly beautiful windows).

    Let me tell you, tough to find a good siding guy that’s got experience with James Hardie (and doesn’t cost a stupid amount of money, one guy quoted me $25,000, I could take a week off work and do it myself for under $5k).

  177. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    Headed out to stone street and seaport to drink massive amounts of beer and eat food. I will report back on state of the economy. Wish me luck!!! Also Saturday Night taking a bunch of people out to dinner in Long Beach. I will also report back on that state of the economy.

  178. Confused In NJ says:

    145.Barbara says:
    July 21, 2011 at 2:02 pm
    142. Confused.
    Why wait? Wanna borrow my utility knife?

    I have a siding zip tool, but unfortunately I went to Catholic School and can’t do midnight requisition. When they go to tear it down, I’ll pay them for it. I did find some in Michigan, but they won’t ship it. If anyone has tried ITEL which bought Siding Match, don’t, they charged me $140 to tell me my siding was discontinued and to paint replacement pieces. So much for their ability to locate discontinued staock . I found it in Michigan & Canada. ITEL is a Rip Off.

  179. nomochifi says:

    Does anybody know how I can stop chifi posts from showing up when I’m on njrereport? Or does anybody know how to prevent wsj articles and youtube videos from being on my screen?

  180. Orion says:

    Since no one has stepped up to the plate – I’ll be the first to nominate myself a Grim Zombie follower, a Grimbie.

    What’s best interior paint – Benjamin Moore, Sherman Williams or Valspar? The painters I’ve interviewed clash on opinions.

  181. Al Mossberg says:

    161,

    I could care less if he goes to an Ivy league school. I sure as h_ll wont be paying for it.

  182. Libtard at home says:

    Valspar. The other two are thinner according to my painter friend. He’s a fan of Behr too. Wouldn’t touch anything else though. He says BM and SW are overpriced krap.

  183. Juice Box says:

    Default time, calling it a “controlled” failure.

    Greece is set to lead the eurozone’s first-ever default as European leaders agreed that the private holders of Greek debt will take a hit of €50bn over three years.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8653634/Greece-to-default-as-EU-agrees-159bn-bailout.html

  184. A.West says:

    Kettle,
    Farmers are happier and people are slower and easier to harvest when hfc is in most products. Corn syrup is like beer googles for your short-lived palate.

  185. x-everything says:

    Orion 181,
    Don’t fall for the Benjamin Moore hype…you’re paying for all the commercials and trendy tv shows they put out there. I tested it alongside Behr premium plus ultra when painting about 7 or 8 rooms over the last year and found no discernible difference in quality. It really burns me up when they charge you double for the same product and then act like nothing else in the world will do

  186. Barbara says:

    I’ve used Behr for years with no complaints.

  187. The house you buy/bought/love/keep/lost/hated/fixed won’t matter a bit when we are all wandering the country like meat-starved zombies.

  188. box (152)-

    Yep, that’s my town. I seriously wonder how I made it out of that place with even a shred of literacy. There are schools there where summer reading lists are back issues of Guns & Ammo.

    Many schools in Memphis could be easily converted to jails. Memphis led the nation in bulldozing whole neighborhoods, so perhaps they can lead again by being on the cutting edge of mass incarceration.

  189. gator (135)-

    Why chat with some cretin on the internets, when you can simply get his address and send him a package bomb?

  190. Shore Guy says:

    Grim,

    It looks like there are some housing-related aspects to the rumored budget deal:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obama-gop-leaders-said-to-discuss-new-debt-plan/2011/07/21/gIQAT81BSI_story.html

    snip

    More savings would be generated through an overhaul of the tax code that would lower personal and corporate income tax rates while eliminating or reducing an array of popular tax breaks, such as the deduction for home mortgage interest. But the talks envisioned no specific tax increases as part of legislation to lift the debt limit, and the tax rewrite would be postponed until next year.

    snip

  191. Jake says:

    What else is new?

  192. Juice Box says:

    Another awesome beach day the water temp is in the high 70s.

Comments are closed.