Pending home sales rebound

From Bloomberg:

Pending Sales of Previously Owned Homes in the U.S. Increased 2.4% in June

The number of contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly rose in June as buyers tried to take advantage of lower prices and borrowing costs.

The 2.4 percent rise in the index of pending home resales followed an 8.2 percent May gain, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. Economists forecast a 2 percent drop, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.

Estimates for pending home sales ranged from a drop of 5 percent to an increase of 8 percent, according to 39 forecasts in the Bloomberg survey. Pending sales rose 17 percent from June 2010.

From the WSJ:

Behind the Numbers: Pending Home Sales Rise

This week’s reports on the housing market have been decidedly mixed.

On Tuesday, the government said new home sales were down 1% on a monthly basis in June. Also that day, the S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 major U.S. cities was down 4.5% in May from a year earlier.

But today’s news was positive and unexpected: The National Association of Realtors’ seasonally adjusted index for pending sales of existing homes rose 2.4% on a monthly basis to a reading of 90.9 in June. Economists had forecast a 2% drop.

Peter Newland, economist, Barclays Capital: “The gains in May and June largely offset the sharp 11.2% decline in April, which likely owed in part to adverse weather conditions in much of the country. Indeed, the level of the index, at 90.9 in June, is back broadly in line with the (first-quarter) average….This is an encouraging report with regard to the outlook for existing home sales, which tend to lag pending sales by a month or two.”

Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist, High Frequency Economics: “The underlying trend in existing home sales is more or less flat, and it is hard to imagine any near-term change as long as applications for mortgages to finance house purchase(s) are flat, too. In this context, the gains in pending home sales in May and June are probably best considered as nothing more than a rebound after the very late Easter and severe weather depressed the index in April.”

From the NAR:

Pending Home Sales Rise in June

Pending home sales increased in June following a wide swing down in April and then up in May, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Activity increased in the West and South but declined in the Midwest and Northeast; all regions show strong double-digit gains from a year ago.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 2.4 percent to 90.9 in June from 88.8 in May and is 19.8 percent above the 75.9 reading in June 2010, which was the low point immediately following expiration of the home buyer tax credit. The data reflects contracts but not closings.

The PHSI in the Northeast slipped 0.4 percent to 68.9 in June but is 19.4 percent higher than June 2010. In the Midwest the index fell 3.7 percent to 79.7 in June but is 26.4 percent above a year ago. Pending home sales in the South increased 4.4 percent to an index of 99.2 and are 19.1 percent higher than June 2010. In the West the index rose 6.4 percent to 107.0 in June and is 16.4 percent above a year ago.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

234 Responses to Pending home sales rebound

  1. Essex says:

    Frist.

  2. grim says:

    From the NY Times:

    New Development for a Tired Industrial Town

    STARTING leasing next month beside the PATH station here: 275 new rental units with an attended lobby, a fitness center, an outdoor pool and volleyball court, a residents’ lounge, and garage parking — all within walking distance of a major-league soccer stadium.

    Wait a minute. Did we just say Harrison?

    Once an industrial center down on its luck, Harrison in Hudson County is now a locus of planned redevelopment on a huge scale. The town hugs the Passaic River as it slices south to form the eastern border of Newark’s downtown and curves west to make the northern border of its Ironbound section.

    It is true that much of the work in the 200-acre redevelopment area remains on hold, as developers try to sit out a sluggish economic period. But near the PATH station, there is concerted activity. Even David Barry, the president of the Ironstate Development Company, which is building the residential complex (along with a partner, the Pegasus Group), concedes that the imminent opening of what is being called Harrison Station may come as news to many, despite eight years of groundwork.

    “If you’re a person setting out to look for a cool new apartment that you can commute from in this area,” Mr. Barry said, “it’s possible you’ve never heard of Harrison.” Which is why “we are launching a major branding effort — not just for Harrison Station, but for the entire area.”

    Mr. Barry described the Harrison Station apartment buildings as being designed to look “modern and exciting, while still respecting the industrial past of the neighborhood.”

    The area will be in transition for years, he noted, and the redevelopment plan does not aim to eradicate that industrial past. On the other hand, his company and Pegasus have been at work with paintbrushes and plywood to help present the neighborhood’s nicest possible face as leasing begins. The rusty trestle bridge for the PATH, for example, is now coated in shades of aqua and green. Broken windows in some empty buildings on surrounding streets are being covered and painted with cheerful colors as well.

    “We are not trying to pretend that Harrison is something it is not,” Mr. Barry said. “It is a truly well-connected formerly industrial area, and we’ll be addressing that head-on.”

  3. grim says:

    From Wall Street Daily:

    These 12 Real Estate Stats Scream One Thing (Part 2)

    ~ Statistic #2 – More Price Declines This Year
    Jason Kopcak of Cantor Fitzgerald says prices could fall another 10% to 15% this year.

    ~ Statistic #3 – No Housing Bottom Until 2012
    CoreLogic expects prices to drop another 5% before bottoming out in 2012.

    Yale University economist, Robert Shiller (of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes), weighs in, too, stating that although it’s unlikely, “a 30-year decline in home prices [adjusted for inflation] is certainly a possibility.”

    I’m all for being a contrarian. But in this case, banking on a real estate rebound isn’t contrarian… it’s stupid.

    And it appears that investors who were previously betting on a rebound are finally waking up to this reality, too.

  4. grim says:

    Please tell me why this is necessary?

    From the WSJ:

    U.S. Business Leaders Press Senate Panel for More Work Visas

    U.S. business leaders on Tuesday urged a Senate panel to implement immigration-law changes that would allow companies to hire more highly skilled workers.

    NASDAQ OMX Group Inc. Chief Executive Robert Greifeld said countries like India and China have policies in place to attract scientists and engineers, but the red tape and limited visas offered by the U.S. are driving them away. Every year 17,000 American-trained masters and doctoral students leave the U.S. to find work elsewhere, he said.

    “I think we will have more jobs and be more competitive as a country if we make the default setting that you are welcome if you possess skills and knowledge that we need to solve problems and create solutions for the economy,” Mr. Greifeld said.

    Brad Smith, vice president of legal and corporate affairs for Microsoft Corp., said Microsoft has 4,500 job openings now, many in computer science. There is increasing pressure to move these jobs overseas, he said, because Microsoft can’t find enough qualified U.S. citizens and can’t get enough visas to fill the positions.

    Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.) suggested “virtually stapling a green card to their diplomas” for higher-level graduates in science, technology, engineering and mathematics.

  5. New Jersey says:

    Good morning to myself.

  6. Neanderthal Economist says:

    My prediction is that jjs bond of the day today will be a 12% ytm t-bill with an aug 4 maturity.

  7. Jason says:

    “Pending home sales rebound”…

    …cue laugh track

  8. gary says:

    Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.) suggested “virtually stapling a green card to their diplomas” for higher-level graduates in science, technology, engineering and mathematics.

    Borderline livid….

  9. grim says:

    Gary – expected more

  10. gary says:

    grim,

    It renders me speechless.

  11. grim says:

    Did he just piss all over every unemployed tech worker in the US?

  12. Kettle1^2 says:

    Al, JC

    from yesterday

    “The thing that distresses me the most about all the recent arguments about things like public sector workers, outsourcing, etc….is that it has middle class people battling each other instead of the power structures that put us in this mess — corporations, bankers, and yes, the government that .”

    first you have to figure out how to explain to people that since 40% of the GDP is government spending, every single dollar you reduce government spending by is also going to reduce GDP. That like a heroin junky, there is no painless option to get off the debt wagon. And that until we rebuild a productive economy instead of the service illusion, that it is not going to get better.

    let me know when you figure out how to do that.

  13. Kettle1^2 says:

    Grim

    does anyone actually believe the whole “not enough tech employee’s in the US” line of total BS???

  14. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Ket let us rephrase that & it becomes more clear “does anyone actually BUY the whole “not enough tech employee’s in the US” line of total BS???”
    Yes , the corporations buy politicians.

  15. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Schumer is a piece of ===!

  16. grim says:

    14 – Well played

  17. Kettle1^2 says:

    There has been a bit of a backlash against foreigners in my field from companies having bad experiences with people who look great on paper then show up barely able to speak English. Even if they are dirt cheap it makes a very bad impression on the clients and prevents them from communicating effectively, hurting the bottom line at the end of the day.
    Certain contracting companies now actively screen resumes for names that are obviously not American (i.e names that are too Indian or too Asian). Its not a racial impetus but a response to being burned and wasting money on visa games.

  18. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    Also what is with Indians with Indian names who are not Indian. I am talking third Generations Americans of Indian descent who have strange hard to spell Indian first names and eat the kooky food whole nine yards.

    Heck my Mom came from Ireland and ditched it all for the American dream, no speaking galeic,playing irish music, eating irish food, it was a melting pot and got was to asimilate. Part of problem is more of a bad attitude.

    Favorite line of all time, I asked a Indian Man born in the USA why he gave his son such a long complicated Indian first name, I said he last name is already Indian, he said I want to make sure everyone knows he is Indian, I go look at you, you name could be Sean O’Murphy and I would know you are an Indian. WTF

  19. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    GDP numbers ugly. Simon on CNBC out of breath from anxiety. No movement on debt deal. Even MSNBC no longer cheerleading.

    Cue Clot.

  20. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (18) JJ,

    Makes it easier on them when they bolt for the old country. If the expat numbers spike further, it will be LIFO that leads.

  21. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (11) grim

    Yes

  22. 3b says:

    # 4 Microsoft can’t find enough qualified U.S. citizens and can’t get enough visas to fill the positions.

    I don’t believe it. perhaps they just want to hire form overseas, and pay what hey want, assuming these oversea hires will be grateful just for the opportunity to work here.

  23. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Gold back up to 1625.

    Clot, if you don’t say it, I will.

  24. Kettle1^2 says:

    Nom,

    and those numbers are only going to get much worse. Any budget deal that makes any real cuts will be cutting directly from GDP.

  25. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    3b actually the problem with microsoft is most people don’t want to live in Seattle with it high cost of living and generally low wage scale. For the record I have been able to accomplish more in 14 years of science work with folks of the Asian persuasion than most of the americans I have worked with. We are fat and lazy and would rather be on the internet seeing who J-lo divorced now.

  26. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    U.S. Business Leaders Press Senate Panel for More Work Visas

    20% unemployment and they need workers from overseas. Give me a f’g break. Before they shipped so many of those IT jobs overseas in the past decade this country was teaming with tech workers and companies were in bidding wars. The NYT jobs section was 20 pages long and 16 of them were for IT jobs. Where the f did all those people go? Oh yeah they were all made f’g temp employees and contractors to cut on the labor/benefit costs. Now Microsoft etc. won’t hire them straight up because of their “unsteady” employment history. Plus the dude from India will take 20% less here because its 40% more than Mumbai.

    This country is so f’d. Chuck Schumer is a perfect f’g example of EVERYTHING that is wrong with this country.

  27. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Did Jimmy Boehner’s tears start flowing down his Orange-glow face yet?

  28. pine_brook says:

    22 3b,
    Immigrants are not paid lower than GC holders or citizens, atleast in pharma industry. In my opinion ( I am an immigrant), immigration is not the problem. Jobs moving to overseas is the only reason for our current predicament. If there is a tarrif regimen in place, you won’t be able to find enough chemists in this country to fill the jobs.

  29. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Dow futures down triple digits.

    Clot, where are you?

  30. BC Bob says:

    “On the other hand, his company and Pegasus have been at work with paintbrushes and plywood to help present the neighborhood’s nicest possible face as leasing begins.”

    [2],

    Paintbrushes and plywood? The complex is sitting on a toxic dump. Your bedroom practically sits on the Path tracks. Other views include the Passaic River and the old Hartz Mtn bldg across the street, a bigger toxic dump. On the plus side, there is a bar on every corner and the hooligan’s are able to convene at a moment’s notice.

  31. JJ says:

    Like the chinese guy who took cboe for a ride recently. they keep their second passport secret.

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    July 29, 2011 at 8:49 am
    (18) JJ,

    Makes it easier on them when they bolt for the old country. If the expat numbers spike further, it will be LIFO that leads.

  32. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (30) pine,

    Some of us (okay, me) has been saying for over a year that Obama doesn’t succeed on anything major w/o protectionism.

    I think it will happen. We will say F U to the WTO.

    But if this happens, we become a closed economy. No exports or tourism of note b/c we will be too expensive.

    And you will see a spike in retired expats moving to low cost jurisdictions. That takes money and spending out of the US, and pressures suburbs that lose the free money from taxpayers that don’t use services. Otoh, it reduces Medicare costs.

  33. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    I think I will sell some gold today, and go to BJs to put away some more long term storage consumables. Got enough ammo at least.

  34. Kettle1^2 says:

    Nom

    See the chart at 27. The question is how much does the reduction in healthcare expense counter the loss of tax income for older expats?

  35. Shore Guy says:

    Nom,

    That is well enough, but can only wirk, I suspect, if we cut the budget and di not need to borrow from overseas. Also, if we did that OPEC might decide ti demoniate oil in gold, Swiss Francs, etc.

  36. Shore Guy says:

    #$%&$ android

  37. JJ says:

    O is better at bracketology than budgeting.

    Today is a great day to sell some gold, Monday may be a huge buying opportunity for stocks IF this goes down to a the wire on August 1st, we pull off a good deal at end of day on August 1st and get a nice multi hundred point run up on Tuesday.

    Today and Monday will be buying AND selling opportunities. I got 100K to put to work. Been killing me staying on sidelines since the Muni Meltdown in Jan and Jap earthquake in March. I love a good entry point, sometimes I also tell that to the ladies.

  38. Outofstater says:

    Look guys, there has got to be a solution to this whole mess. As parents, we can’t just give up and say the US is totally f’ed forever. Where does that leave our kids? If we can’t have hope for the future, how can they? We will get thru this because we have to. Stepping down from soapbox now.

  39. Nicholas says:

    JJ,

    Wikipedia for what it is worth.

    /snip

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_name

    Indian family names are based on a variety of systems and naming conventions, which vary from region to region. Names are also influenced by religion and caste and may come from religion or epics. India’s population speaks a wide variety of languages and nearly every major religion in the world has a following in India. This variety makes for subtle, often confusing, differences in names and naming styles. For example, the concept of a family name did not exist widely in Tamil Nadu.

    For many Indians, their birth name is different from their official name; the birth name starts with a letter auspicious on the basis of the person’s horoscope. Some children are given one name (a given name). In communities that don’t use family names, the third name can be a god’s name, or the grandfather’s or grandmother’s name, depending on the sex of the child. Many children are given two names sometimes as a part of religious teaching, and “Velanati” and “Telaganya” indicate the ancestral places of their origin. These are used for subcaste identification and not necessarily used routinely as part of a person’s official name or daily use name.

    Due to caste-based discrimination or to be caste-neutral, many people started adopting generic last names such as Kumar. That is because Kumar means “Prince” = “son of a King (Raja or Maharaja)” and Kumari means Princess. Kshatriyas (Indian nobility) sometimes use Kumar as a middle name.[citation needed] Film stars such as Rajkumar (Kannada Film legend), Dilip Kumar, Manoj Kumar and, more recently, Akshay Kumar have adopted Kumar as their last names for marketing reasons.

  40. ricky_nu says:

    re: does anyone actually believe the whole “not enough tech employee’s in the US” line of total BS???

    I have argued for quite some time, that when a business leaders or politicians say:
    “there are not enough employees with technical skills that we need”

    they mean:
    “there are not enough employees with technical skills that we need that will do the job for $20/hour with no benefits etc.”

    Truth is, there are plenty of technically adept folks out there that want to live a MIDDLE class life. Let’s face it, lots of technical folks (like me, Masters in Engineering), left for other professions because the pay was crap. Be competitive with other professions, and you will attract people to engineering etc. They want 1 of 2 things to happen:

    1 – Generate a glut of such professionals domestically such that there is salary pressure, ie a person who invests in years of schooling will make the same as an auto line worker

    2 – import such technical people from India, China etc.

  41. Kettle1^2 says:

    Stater

    the piper must be paid. Its not the end of the world but we have leveraged several generations worth of borrowing for non-productive consumption. The only reset button is WWIII. short of that it will be a long hard road to rebuilding. On top of that widespread economic prosperity is generally associated with access to cheap & plentiful energy reserves, something that we do not have at the moment and a new one one is not readily apparent.

    Just because our children and their children live a less ostentatious lifestyle is not cause for dismay. You could argue that they have a better chance for happiness then we do, as most of the existing generation shave sold their soul in exchange for toxic baubles from china. Thos do not provide happiness, but only a brief spike of dopamine.

  42. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [36] kettle

    I think the expats won’t much care as long as they get their SS checks (yes, you can expatriate and still get SS. Must look into whether you can renounce and still get it).

    [37] Shore

    I said it would happen. I didn’t say it would be pretty. Unlike the 50’s and 60’s, when we were more protectionist, the world won’t be buying our stuff and the costs of whatever we import will skyrocket. That’s why those that can leave the country will do so—expat retirement is a fast-growing segment of the overall retirement community. And of those, the wealthy will renounce citizenship and put their kids’ future inheritances into trusts for them when they expatriate (must look at whether contingent future interests in trusts are considered assets for purposes of the exit tax. If not, huge planning opportunity).

    With respect to the Great Debate, our kids are fcuked regardless. I came to this realization long ago. We cannot stop the train wreck. There are only a few consituencies with wealth and they are either (a) highly mobile or (b) sufficiently large enough to block any attempt at cutting or redistribution. Soak the rich? They leave (literally or figuratively). Go after corporations? They leave or they fold. Go after retirement assets? Good luck with that.

    This is why I would rather keep what I can now and provide for my kids myself, in ways that don’t make them overly reliant on society. Fabius and sas3 call me greedy for choosing to look out for my kids instead of happily redistributing what little wealth I have. In that regard, I don’t care what they think. I really don’t, and no amount of bandwidth they use up to castigate me will change my mind.

  43. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [40] OOS

    Make sure that they can generate their own income if need be, or that they have an independent, and preferably tax-advantaged, wealth resource. Preferably both.

    The Great Reckoning (to use a book title) is coming and it won’t be pretty. For my part, I find myself actually thinking sometimes that I miight have to teach my girls how to be golddiggers as a backup plan. Scares the sh1t out of me.

  44. Kettle1^2 says:

    Nom 44

    With respect to the Great Debate, our kids are fcuked regardless. I came to this realization long ago. We cannot stop the train wreck. There are only a few consituencies with wealth and they are either (a) highly mobile or (b) sufficiently large enough to block any attempt at cutting or redistribution. Soak the rich? They leave (literally or figuratively). Go after corporations? They leave or they fold. Go after retirement assets? Good luck with that.

    Hence, why no government and few nations in history have ever survived the great inflationary race to wipe out public debt that has gone prompt-critical. You also make an excellent argument for immediate default on all foreign and foreign held debt.

  45. d2b says:

    Gary:
    We used ehealthinsurance.com when I was laid off in December because we found coverage that was half the price of COBRA. The coverage was better because my insurance was based with my employer in Atlanta and I was able to move to a Blue Cross plan. The only thing different was we had no vision care.

    Being laid off was a game-changer. We live a simple life and I was prepared, but I still took a major financial hit. Even though I am employed we spend less because we need to rebuild reserves and I want to be better prepared for the next time.

    I’ve been preaching to my wife that life would never get any easier. She wouldn’t listen and stayed unemployed or underemployed by choice over the last five years. She wishes that she had those years back.

  46. Kettle1^2 says:

    Nom

    I find myself actually thinking sometimes that I might have to teach my girls how to be golddiggers as a backup plan. Scares the sh1t out of me.

    But if you tech them well, you should have a very comfortable old age.

  47. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Gold hits another record.

    Okay, cannot wait for Clot/Meat anymore. Somebody’s gotta say it.

    The stench of death is especially pungent this morning.

  48. Kettle1^2 says:

    Nom

    I find myself actually thinking sometimes that I might have to teach my girls how to be golddiggers as a backup plan. Scares the sh1t out of me.

    But if you teach them well, you should have a very comfortable old age.

  49. Shore Guy says:

    Nom,

    If there is a spike in folks leaving and drawing retirement checks, congress, perhaps even just rule making, could require the funds be deposited in the US and restrict outflows.

  50. Essex says:

    FWIW… You guys were right. Timberrrr!

  51. BC Bob says:

    “Today is a great day to sell some gold”

    JJ,

    It’s amazing, those that never saw the bull run coming, have no clue what’s driving the market and were yelling bubble at $800, continue to stroke themselves.

    A better idea; if you are long, buy puts for the short term. Your choice at/out of the money, nearest expiration. I’m buying at the money.

    Nobody knows when the next pullback is coming. If you listened to JJ, you would have sold at 800, 1000, 1,200, etc.. Just a fantastic market timer. If bulls are lucky to buy it on sale, a 100-150, pullback, close your eyes and buy. This market will be much higher at year end. Merry X-Mas.

  52. JJ says:

    ← July Beige Book
    Pending home sales rebound
    Posted on July 29, 2011 by grim
    From Bloomberg:

    Pending Sales of Previously Owned Homes in the U.S. Increased 2.4% in June

    The number of contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly rose in June as buyers tried to take advantage of lower prices and borrowing costs.

    The 2.4 percent rise in the index of pending home resales followed an 8.2 percent May gain, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. Economists forecast a 2 percent drop, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.

    Estimates for pending home sales ranged from a drop of 5 percent to an increase of 8 percent, according to 39 forecasts in the Bloomberg survey. Pending sales rose 17 percent from June 2010.

    From the WSJ:

    Behind the Numbers: Pending Home Sales Rise

    This week’s reports on the housing market have been decidedly mixed.

    On Tuesday, the government said new home sales were down 1% on a monthly basis in June. Also that day, the S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 major U.S. cities was down 4.5% in May from a year earlier.

    But today’s news was positive and unexpected: The National Association of Realtors’ seasonally adjusted index for pending sales of existing homes rose 2.4% on a monthly basis to a reading of 90.9 in June. Economists had forecast a 2% drop.

    Peter Newland, economist, Barclays Capital: “The gains in May and June largely offset the sharp 11.2% decline in April, which likely owed in part to adverse weather conditions in much of the country. Indeed, the level of the index, at 90.9 in June, is back broadly in line with the (first-quarter) average….This is an encouraging report with regard to the outlook for existing home sales, which tend to lag pending sales by a month or two.”

    Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist, High Frequency Economics: “The underlying trend in existing home sales is more or less flat, and it is hard to imagine any near-term change as long as applications for mortgages to finance house purchase(s) are flat, too. In this context, the gains in pending home sales in May and June are probably best considered as nothing more than a rebound after the very late Easter and severe weather depressed the index in April.”

    From the NAR:

    Pending Home Sales Rise in June

    Pending home sales increased in June following a wide swing down in April and then up in May, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Activity increased in the West and South but declined in the Midwest and Northeast; all regions show strong double-digit gains from a year ago.

    The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 2.4 percent to 90.9 in June from 88.8 in May and is 19.8 percent above the 75.9 reading in June 2010, which was the low point immediately following expiration of the home buyer tax credit. The data reflects contracts but not closings.

    The PHSI in the Northeast slipped 0.4 percent to 68.9 in June but is 19.4 percent higher than June 2010. In the Midwest the index fell 3.7 percent to 79.7 in June but is 26.4 percent above a year ago. Pending home sales in the South increased 4.4 percent to an index of 99.2 and are 19.1 percent higher than June 2010. In the West the index rose 6.4 percent to 107.0 in June and is 16.4 percent above a year ago.

    This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.
    ← July Beige Book
    52 Responses to Pending home sales rebound
    Essex says:
    July 29, 2011 at 5:54 am
    Frist.

    grim says:
    July 29, 2011 at 6:11 am
    From the NY Times:

    New Development for a Tired Industrial Town

    STARTING leasing next month beside the PATH station here: 275 new rental units with an attended lobby, a fitness center, an outdoor pool and volleyball court, a residents’ lounge, and garage parking — all within walking distance of a major-league soccer stadium.

    Wait a minute. Did we just say Harrison?

    Once an industrial center down on its luck, Harrison in Hudson County is now a locus of planned redevelopment on a huge scale. The town hugs the Passaic River as it slices south to form the eastern border of Newark’s downtown and curves west to make the northern border of its Ironbound section.

    It is true that much of the work in the 200-acre redevelopment area remains on hold, as developers try to sit out a sluggish economic period. But near the PATH station, there is concerted activity. Even David Barry, the president of the Ironstate Development Company, which is building the residential complex (along with a partner, the Pegasus Group), concedes that the imminent opening of what is being called Harrison Station may come as news to many, despite eight years of groundwork.

    “If you’re a person setting out to look for a cool new apartment that you can commute from in this area,” Mr. Barry said, “it’s possible you’ve never heard of Harrison.” Which is why “we are launching a major branding effort — not just for Harrison Station, but for the entire area.”

    Mr. Barry described the Harrison Station apartment buildings as being designed to look “modern and exciting, while still respecting the industrial past of the neighborhood.”

    The area will be in transition for years, he noted, and the redevelopment plan does not aim to eradicate that industrial past. On the other hand, his company and Pegasus have been at work with paintbrushes and plywood to help present the neighborhood’s nicest possible face as leasing begins. The rusty trestle bridge for the PATH, for example, is now coated in shades of aqua and green. Broken windows in some empty buildings on surrounding streets are being covered and painted with cheerful colors as well.

    “We are not trying to pretend that Harrison is something it is not,” Mr. Barry said. “It is a truly well-connected formerly industrial area, and we’ll be addressing that head-on.”

    grim says:
    July 29, 2011 at 6:21 am
    From Wall Street Daily:

    These 12 Real Estate Stats Scream One Thing (Part 2)

    ~ Statistic #2 – More Price Declines This Year
    Jason Kopcak of Cantor Fitzgerald says prices could fall another 10% to 15% this year.

    ~ Statistic #3 – No Housing Bottom Until 2012
    CoreLogic expects prices to drop another 5% before bottoming out in 2012.

    Yale University economist, Robert Shiller (of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes), weighs in, too, stating that although it’s unlikely, “a 30-year decline in home prices [adjusted for inflation] is certainly a possibility.”

    I’m all for being a contrarian. But in this case, banking on a real estate rebound isn’t contrarian… it’s stupid.

    And it appears that investors who were previously betting on a rebound are finally waking up to this reality, too.

    grim says:
    July 29, 2011 at 6:25 am
    Please tell me why this is necessary?

    From the WSJ:

    U.S. Business Leaders Press Senate Panel for More Work Visas

    U.S. business leaders on Tuesday urged a Senate panel to implement immigration-law changes that would allow companies to hire more highly skilled workers.

    NASDAQ OMX Group Inc. Chief Executive Robert Greifeld said countries like India and China have policies in place to attract scientists and engineers, but the red tape and limited visas offered by the U.S. are driving them away. Every year 17,000 American-trained masters and doctoral students leave the U.S. to find work elsewhere, he said.

    “I think we will have more jobs and be more competitive as a country if we make the default setting that you are welcome if you possess skills and knowledge that we need to solve problems and create solutions for the economy,” Mr. Greifeld said.

    Brad Smith, vice president of legal and corporate affairs for Microsoft Corp., said Microsoft has 4,500 job openings now, many in computer science. There is increasing pressure to move these jobs overseas, he said, because Microsoft can’t find enough qualified U.S. citizens and can’t get enough visas to fill the positions.

    Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.) suggested “virtually stapling a green card to their diplomas” for higher-level graduates in science, technology, engineering and mathematics.

    New Jersey says:
    July 29, 2011 at 7:06 am
    Good morning to myself.

    Neanderthal Economist says:
    July 29, 2011 at 7:10 am
    My prediction is that jjs bond of the day today will be a 12% ytm t-bill with an aug 4 maturity.

    Jason says:
    July 29, 2011 at 7:22 am
    “Pending home sales rebound”…

    …cue laugh track

    gary says:
    July 29, 2011 at 7:32 am
    Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.) suggested “virtually stapling a green card to their diplomas” for higher-level graduates in science, technology, engineering and mathematics.

    Borderline livid….

    grim says:
    July 29, 2011 at 7:57 am
    Gary – expected more

    gary says:
    July 29, 2011 at 8:03 am
    grim,

    It renders me speechless.

    grim says:
    July 29, 2011 at 8:12 am
    Did he just piss all over every unemployed tech worker in the US?

    Kettle1^2 says:
    July 29, 2011 at 8:14 am
    Al, JC

    from yesterday

    “The thing that distresses me the most about all the recent arguments about things like public sector workers, outsourcing, etc….is that it has middle class people battling each other instead of the power structures that put us in this mess — corporations, bankers, and yes, the government that .”

    first you have to figure out how to explain to people that since 40% of the GDP is government spending, every single dollar you reduce government spending by is also going to reduce GDP. That like a heroin junky, there is no painless option to get off the debt wagon. And that until we rebuild a productive economy instead of the service illusion, that it is not going to get better.

    let me know when you figure out how to do that.

    Kettle1^2 says:
    July 29, 2011 at 8:23 am
    Grim

    does anyone actually believe the whole “not enough tech employee’s in the US” line of total BS???

    Mikeinwaiting says:
    July 29, 2011 at 8:28 am
    Ket let us rephrase that & it becomes more clear “does anyone actually BUY the whole “not enough tech employee’s in the US” line of total BS???”
    Yes , the corporations buy politicians.

    Mikeinwaiting says:
    July 29, 2011 at 8:30 am
    Schumer is a piece of ===!

    grim says:
    July 29, 2011 at 8:33 am
    14 – Well played

    Kettle1^2 says:
    July 29, 2011 at 8:33 am
    There has been a bit of a backlash against foreigners in my field from companies having bad experiences with people who look great on paper then show up barely able to speak English. Even if they are dirt cheap it makes a very bad impression on the clients and prevents them from communicating effectively, hurting the bottom line at the end of the day.
    Certain contracting companies now actively screen resumes for names that are obviously not American (i.e names that are too Indian or too Asian). Its not a racial impetus but a response to being burned and wasting money on visa games.

    JJ – AKA Two Hands says:
    July 29, 2011 at 8:43 am
    Also what is with Indians with Indian names who are not Indian. I am talking third Generations Americans of Indian descent who have strange hard to spell Indian first names and eat the kooky food whole nine yards.

    Heck my Mom came from Ireland and ditched it all for the American dream, no speaking galeic,playing irish music, eating irish food, it was a melting pot and got was to asimilate. Part of problem is more of a bad attitude.

    Favorite line of all time, I asked a Indian Man born in the USA why he gave his son such a long complicated Indian first name, I said he last name is already Indian, he said I want to make sure everyone knows he is Indian, I go look at you, you name could be Sean O’Murphy and I would know you are an Indian. WTF

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    July 29, 2011 at 8:45 am
    GDP numbers ugly. Simon on CNBC out of breath from anxiety. No movement on debt deal. Even MSNBC no longer cheerleading.

    Cue Clot.

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    July 29, 2011 at 8:49 am
    (18) JJ,

    Makes it easier on them when they bolt for the old country. If the expat numbers spike further, it will be LIFO that leads.

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    July 29, 2011 at 8:51 am
    (11) grim

    Yes

    3b says:
    July 29, 2011 at 8:52 am
    # 4 Microsoft can’t find enough qualified U.S. citizens and can’t get enough visas to fill the positions.

    I don’t believe it. perhaps they just want to hire form overseas, and pay what hey want, assuming these oversea hires will be grateful just for the opportunity to work here.

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    July 29, 2011 at 8:55 am
    Gold back up to 1625.

    Clot, if you don’t say it, I will.

    Kettle1^2 says:
    July 29, 2011 at 8:57 am
    Nom,

    and those numbers are only going to get much worse. Any budget deal that makes any real cuts will be cutting directly from GDP.

    Kettle1^2 says:
    July 29, 2011 at 8:59 am
    http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/downchart_gs.php?year=1900_2010&view=1&expand=&units=p&log=linear&fy=fy12&chart=F0-total&bar=0&stack=1&size=l&title=Spending%20As%20Percent%20Of%20GDP&state=US&color=c&local=s#usgs302

    Painhrtz – Salmon of Doubt says:
    July 29, 2011 at 8:59 am
    3b actually the problem with microsoft is most people don’t want to live in Seattle with it high cost of living and generally low wage scale. For the record I have been able to accomplish more in 14 years of science work with folks of the Asian persuasion than most of the americans I have worked with. We are fat and lazy and would rather be on the internet seeing who J-lo divorced now.

    Kettle1^2 says:
    July 29, 2011 at 9:00 am
    Another little chart

    healthcare as a % of GDP

    http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/downchart_gs.php?year=1900_2010&view=1&expand=&units=p&log=linear&fy=fy12&chart=10-total&bar=0&stack=1&size=l&title=&state=US&color=c&local=s

    Dissident HEHEHE says:
    July 29, 2011 at 9:00 am
    U.S. Business Leaders Press Senate Panel for More Work Visas

    20% unemployment and they need workers from overseas. Give me a f’g break. Before they shipped so many of those IT jobs overseas in the past decade this country was teaming with tech workers and companies were in bidding wars. The NYT jobs section was 20 pages long and 16 of them were for IT jobs. Where the f did all those people go? Oh yeah they were all made f’g temp employees and contractors to cut on the labor/benefit costs. Now Microsoft etc. won’t hire them straight up because of their “unsteady” employment history. Plus the dude from India will take 20% less here because its 40% more than Mumbai.

    This country is so f’d. Chuck Schumer is a perfect f’g example of EVERYTHING that is wrong with this country.

    Dissident HEHEHE says:
    July 29, 2011 at 9:02 am
    Did Jimmy Boehner’s tears start flowing down his Orange-glow face yet?

    pine_brook says:
    July 29, 2011 at 9:05 am
    22 3b,
    Immigrants are not paid lower than GC holders or citizens, atleast in pharma industry. In my opinion ( I am an immigrant), immigration is not the problem. Jobs moving to overseas is the only reason for our current predicament. If there is a tarrif regimen in place, you won’t be able to find enough chemists in this country to fill the jobs.

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    July 29, 2011 at 9:07 am
    Dow futures down triple digits.

    Clot, where are you?

    BC Bob says:
    July 29, 2011 at 9:09 am
    “On the other hand, his company and Pegasus have been at work with paintbrushes and plywood to help present the neighborhood’s nicest possible face as leasing begins.”

    [2],

    Paintbrushes and plywood? The complex is sitting on a toxic dump. Your bedroom practically sits on the Path tracks. Other views include the Passaic River and the old Hartz Mtn bldg across the street, a bigger toxic dump. On the plus side, there is a bar on every corner and the hooligan’s are able to convene at a moment’s notice.

    JJ says:
    July 29, 2011 at 9:18 am
    Like the chinese guy who took cboe for a ride recently. they keep their second passport secret.

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    July 29, 2011 at 8:49 am
    (18) JJ,

    Makes it easier on them when they bolt for the old country. If the expat numbers spike further, it will be LIFO that leads.

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    July 29, 2011 at 9:18 am
    (30) pine,

    Some of us (okay, me) has been saying for over a year that Obama doesn’t succeed on anything major w/o protectionism.

    I think it will happen. We will say F U to the WTO.

    But if this happens, we become a closed economy. No exports or tourism of note b/c we will be too expensive.

    And you will see a spike in retired expats moving to low cost jurisdictions. That takes money and spending out of the US, and pressures suburbs that lose the free money from taxpayers that don’t use services. Otoh, it reduces Medicare costs.

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    July 29, 2011 at 9:22 am
    I think I will sell some gold today, and go to BJs to put away some more long term storage consumables. Got enough ammo at least.

    Kettle1^2 says:
    July 29, 2011 at 9:24 am
    Nom

    See the chart at 27. The question is how much does the reduction in healthcare expense counter the loss of tax income for older expats?

    Shore Guy says:
    July 29, 2011 at 9:30 am
    Nom,

    That is well enough, but can only wirk, I suspect, if we cut the budget and di not need to borrow from overseas. Also, if we did that OPEC might decide ti demoniate oil in gold, Swiss Francs, etc.

    Shore Guy says:
    July 29, 2011 at 9:31 am
    #$%&$ android

    JJ says:
    July 29, 2011 at 9:35 am
    O is better at bracketology than budgeting.

    Today is a great day to sell some gold, Monday may be a huge buying opportunity for stocks IF this goes down to a the wire on August 1st, we pull off a good deal at end of day on August 1st and get a nice multi hundred point run up on Tuesday.

    Today and Monday will be buying AND selling opportunities. I got 100K to put to work. Been killing me staying on sidelines since the Muni Meltdown in Jan and Jap earthquake in March. I love a good entry point, sometimes I also tell that to the ladies.

    Outofstater says:
    July 29, 2011 at 9:41 am
    Look guys, there has got to be a solution to this whole mess. As parents, we can’t just give up and say the US is totally f’ed forever. Where does that leave our kids? If we can’t have hope for the future, how can they? We will get thru this because we have to. Stepping down from soapbox now.

    Also they take their Dads first name as their middle name. So daughters have a male middle name, imagine if Jews did it. Poor Daughters, Tiffney Myron Goldberg would make my johnson go soft just hearing that name

    Nicholas says:
    July 29, 2011 at 9:42 am
    JJ,

    Wikipedia for what it is worth.

  53. Kettle1^2 says:

    Party on garth

    from Bloomberg which confirms this is not the previously scheduled meeting:

    * The Treasury has canceled its regularly scheduled individual meetings with bond dealers in favor of the group meeting, according to the people, who declined to be identified because the meeting hasn’t been publicly announced
    * All 20 primary dealers were invited
    * Treasury spokesmen in Washington didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment on what will be discussed at the meeting

  54. All Hype says:

    Go PPT Go! Throw that dollar under the bus!

  55. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [51] shore

    We are already there. Look at the emphasis on FBARs, and more importantly, the new rules for qualified intermediaries and withholding requirements.

    It isn’t much of a stretch to imagine an automatic 30% tax withholding on all outbound transfers that are not done by qualified intermediaries. Oh, wait . . .

  56. Aaron says:

    The last couple days of news have been real promising… Between Fannie Mae looking to rebound, home sales slightly moving upward in parts of the country…. These are all steps that have to happen before this ship gets turned.

  57. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [55] kettle

    Sounds suspiciously like some meetings Paulson held when Treasury held a proverbial gun to the heads of every large bank in the U.S.

    Sounds like JJ may get his entry point.

  58. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Markets turnaround – fix must be in.

  59. NJ Toast says:

    “Just because our children and their children live a less ostentatious lifestyle is not cause for dismay. You could argue that they have a better chance for happiness then we do, as most of the existing generation shave sold their soul in exchange for toxic baubles from china. Thos do not provide happiness, but only a brief spike of dopamine.”

    And if the children, when they become adults are not addicted to big mortgage payments, property taxes, utilities and lease payments for european autos, they will find a freedom and joy that their debt ridden parents likely did not have. They will also scrutinize their expenditures to a greater degree than their parents and appreciate and enjoy much more the fewer things they decide to purchase. As a nation, we really don’t get it.

    As for the economy, don’t waste your breath about increasing taxes on the rich. Historically, the real tax base rested with the middle class. Once upon a time, this included mid level managers at companies along with working class folk mining coal in west virginia, working in the steel mills in Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Gary Indiana, and auto manufacturing plants in Detroit and Flint. The multiplier effect on the economy from these jobs cannot be underestimated.

    If you want your country to have the economy it used to have, it is going to need to have the jobs it used to have and unless it does, there are more people who will live in poverty. For all you pharma people, look where your R&D is now headed.

    PS – maybe someone can take apart a motorola military radio and tell me where the components are manufactured.

  60. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Here’s another off the wall prediction:

    Latest expat numbers are supposed to be published by Monday. They won’t be; traditionally they are about three weeks late.

    If the number isn’t published in August, I predict that (a) it will be done on at the close of business on Sept. 2nd, and (b) it will be north of 500 names, continuing a trend of wealthy leaving the US at an unprecedented clip.

  61. NJ Toast says:

    take apart = disassemble

  62. pine_brook says:

    Nom,
    We need to see how many jobs will disappear because of protectionism. I dont think it will be many. If the situation continues like this, whatever jobs left in US will be going to low cost countries anyway. I beleive our third best export is scrap metal! Ideally, it should be feeding our steel mills in PA. Until that happens, we can blame whatever we want, job situation will be an issue that never never goes away. As for the HNW individuals leaving US, where are they going to go? Where will they invest thier money? Rest of the world is worst that US in many aspects. Visiting abroad is one thing, living there is another matter. One issue I see with protectionism is high inflation. I dont know how that will affect the economy. We have low inflation here because there is no wage spiral. High commodity prices won’t make a huge increase in inflation. But wage inflation can be lethal. Let us see how the situation evolves. My bet is on tarrif. Only think I wish is tarrif coming in to play before I loose my job!!

  63. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    For people with children who have yet to buy homes I often wonder why they would want their home price to rise.

    Example A, guy has a one million dollar home and four kids.

    Flash forward to 2031 and he is dead, home is now worth two million, kids sell home get 500K each and each buy a two million dollar home and each take out a 1.5 million mortgage. For a total of six million debt.

    However, lets say home falls to 400K, each kids gets 100K, kids go buy identical homes at 400K with 100K down and take out a 300K mortgage, for a total of 1.2 million debt.

    The multiplier effect is for every dollar your home rises, your kids home rises one dollar, someone with ten kids it is ten to one.

    Economy for future generations would do much better if homes fell 100% in value.

  64. 3b says:

    #58 Aron:

    And today we have second quarter GDP at a pathetic 1.3%, first quarter revised to down 0.4%.

    Consumer sentiment down for July.

    Chicago PMI slowing.

    This ship of which you speak, is it named the Titanic?

  65. Kettle1^2 says:

    Pinebrook nom

    the tariffs are coming but at the end of the day the money flows that the US has extracted it’s wealth from since the 50’s are already well on their way to leaving with a likely end location of Asia.

    At the end of the day the US is one of the few large nations capable of being self suficient even if it means a very different US then we now know.

  66. Kettle1^2 says:

    Nj toast

    the military has written documents on it’s dangerous reliance on foriegn manufacturers for mission critical tech

  67. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [64] pine brook

    You ask where the expats will go? Same places they are going now. Do some research; while professionals in this area choose not to publicize it (why would you tell the guards about your escape tunnel?), there is a lot of information out there.

    As for walling off the US, it will stem the unemployment bleeding and make the US a nearly self-contained economy except for ag exports. In truth, we are pretty much there now. No real effect on the rest of the world except for auto workers in Germany and Korea, and every manufacturer in China. And in fact, trade won’t stop, it will simply be slowed and more expensive. That $20 bottle of french or aussie wine will cost $40, but Cali vino won’t be any cheaper. Same holds true for a lot of other things; tariffs not only provide a barrier to entry for foreign goods, it allows growth in domestic profit margins (it has to, otherwise the domestics aren’t profitable and they die). If the french cab costs $40 and the cali cab costs $25, the cali distributor can raise his price to cover his higher costs and provide a greater profit.

    Loser? The american consumer, who will have a better employment climate but also much higher prices and less selection. Kind of like the 70’s when we had only crappy cars from the Big 3 to choose from.

  68. BC Bob says:

    “The last couple days of news have been real promising”

    [58],

    Corporate insiders don’t share your view. They are selling at the fastest rate since the data has been collected, 4 decades ago.

  69. Anon E. Moose says:

    Pine [64];

    As for the HNW individuals leaving US, where are they going to go?

    I suspect Singapore and/or Taiwan are high on the list.

    Where will they invest thier money?

    BRICs

  70. Kettle1^2 says:

    Nom, pain

    you have mail

  71. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [69] pine

    And if no one is really leaving the US because everyplace else is worse, why do we have legislation and rules that (1) impose taxes on expatriates, and (2) make it harder to expatriate? And why is there a waiting list to meet a consular officer in London that is upwards of 15 months long?

    By your logic, these laws and rules were unnecessary, and the wait time a myth.

  72. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    Why do unemployed people always think the economy is terrible? Personal Circumstances have no bearing on macro economic issues.

    Also why do unemployed men sometimes get bitter at their stay at home wives? As if the fact that your wife sacrificed and gave up her career to work like a dog to raise the kids in a non paying 16 hour a day seven day a week job has anything to do with the fact you got fired. If fact I would argue most firms would try to keep a sold incomer earner with young kids by giving the benefit of the doubt, so if you got let go things were pretty bad.

  73. Al Mossberg says:

    Sell gold?

    LMAO. Look at the Federal Reserve Note. I went into full Argentina mode today at the bank and cashed a large check. Teller asked if I wanted an envelope. I said of course. I cant get all these Federal Reserve Notes wet.

    Muahahahaha!

  74. Kettle1^2 says:

    Got popcorn?

    The Federal Housing and Finance Authority announced this week that it was suing UBS for mortgage fraud. The damages being claimed start at $900mm.

  75. pine_brook says:

    73 Nom,
    How many Americans are leaving US and how much money are they taking with them? There may a long wait list to meet a consular officer in London. It does not mean many people are doing it. Simply, it may not be a priority at that place. Every government on earth is going to restrict people leaving the country with a lot of money. That is why they impose tax and other hardship. I am not convinced why an American should leave US. I may be wrong.

  76. pine_brook says:

    69 Nom,
    If one has a high paying job resulting from protectionism, he or she can afford high prices which is a result of tarrif. Do we really need stuff that are made in abroad? Can’t we be happy with California wine? If some rich guy wants French wine, let him pay the import duty. We are fighting for survival here. We haven’t tried the tarrif route yet for the job situation. We have to give it a try.

  77. ditto says:

    Qualified immmigrants isn’t the problem. Just swap them from the 50% of Americans who don’t pay Fed. tax. Or swap em for those on welfare for more than a year.

    BTW, excellent French wine is generally cheaper than OK Californian wines.

    “There may a long wait list to meet a consular officer in London.”
    With a top income tax rate of 50%….

  78. Kettle1^2 says:

    I wonder what international fire this sparks off. what say you shore?

    “The head of the Turkish armed forces General Isik Kosaner along with the heads of the ground, naval and air forces have resigned, broadcaster CNN Turk reported on Friday. The reason for their resignations was not immediately clear. Tensions between the military and the government of Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan have been high in recent years and the Supreme Military Council was due to hold a major meeting next week.”

  79. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore

    What is brewing in the Mediterranean/middle east?

    “The head of the Turkish armed forces General Isik Kosaner along with the heads of the ground, naval and air forces have resigned, broadcaster CNN Turk reported on Friday. The reason for their resignations was not immediately clear. Tensions between the military and the government of Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan have been high in recent years and the Supreme Military Council was due to hold a major meeting next week.”

    On Monday, July 11, the gunpowder in these containers was ignited by a brush fire and exploded. Thirteen Cypriots were killed in this massive explosion and fire, including the commander of the Cypriot navy, Andreas Ioannides, and the commander of the base, Lambros Lambrou. The explosion also damaged the most important power plant in Cyprus, which normally supplies 60 percent of the electricity for the island, causing wide-spread blackouts, reducing water supply, and threatening the nation’s economy.

    A blast early Friday hit a pipeline carrying natural gas from Iran to Turkey, forcing a cut in supply, an Iranian oil official said.

    “The export of gas to Turkey has been temporarily halted after an explosion struck the pipeline” in northwestern Iran, spokesman for National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) Majid Boujarzadeh told the oil ministry’s news agency SHANA.

    By the way, isnt the now leaderless turkish army the largest standing in europe?

  80. Kettle1^2 says:

    3 different articles, reformatted for clarity:

    “The head of the Turkish armed forces General Isik Kosaner along with the heads of the ground, naval and air forces have resigned, broadcaster CNN Turk reported on Friday. The reason for their resignations was not immediately clear. Tensions between the military and the government of Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan have been high in recent years and the Supreme Military Council was due to hold a major meeting next week.”

    ————————————-

    On Monday, July 11, the gunpowder in these containers was ignited by a brush fire and exploded. Thirteen Cypriots were killed in this massive explosion and fire, including the commander of the Cypriot navy, Andreas Ioannides, and the commander of the base, Lambros Lambrou. The explosion also damaged the most important power plant in Cyprus, which normally supplies 60 percent of the electricity for the island, causing wide-spread blackouts, reducing water supply, and threatening the nation’s economy.

    ——————————————

    A blast early Friday hit a pipeline carrying natural gas from Iran to Turkey, forcing a cut in supply, an Iranian oil official said.

    “The export of gas to Turkey has been temporarily halted after an explosion struck the pipeline” in northwestern Iran, spokesman for National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) Majid Boujarzadeh told the oil ministry’s news agency SHANA.

  81. Happy Renter says:

    [66] “And today we have second quarter GDP at a pathetic 1.3%, first quarter revised to down 0.4%.”

    3b – you forgot to add “unexpectedly.”

    “This ship of which you speak, is it named the Titanic?”

    No – the Titanic had a decent band.

  82. Kettle1^2 says:

    Anyone seen Arch Duke Ferdinand? Is he in Turkey this week or Cyprus?

  83. 3b says:

    #83 I apologize. It is always unexpectedly when down.

  84. Happy Renter says:

    [84] “Anyone seen Arch Duke Ferdinand? Is he in Turkey this week or Cyprus?”

    Please let him be in China.

  85. Al Mossberg says:

    1.6 trillion since Nov 2010 got us 0.4%. Not bad. Not bad at all.

    Now QE 3 is going to have to be massive.

    16 trillion to the banks worked out great.

    Come on Bernanke. Give us a little taste of QE 3. Just a taste.

  86. A.West says:

    Here’s a job paying over $20/hr:
    http://diaspora.chinasmack.com/2011/features/monica-tan-the-great-pretenders-chinas-unfireable-english-teachers.html
    If you are an American teaching english, you get paid even more, and can even curse at your students.

  87. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Don’t worry we are going to press 2 one trillion dollar coins. I f*cking live in Zimbabwe an Il Duce is doing his best Mugabe impersonation. Ket and Nom who knows a shooting GTG could end up as fighting retreat to the nompound.

    Pine – New Zealand is very nice, great people similar weather and activities to the states and you can even own a gun. Knew I should have gone to medical school I would be outta here.

  88. JJ says:

    what a non event today, just got back stone st. crowded, people sunning by NYSE and gym was crowded. this is a 100% manufactured for tv crisis.

  89. Happy Renter says:

    [90] Probably true. Although the Union spectators out for a picnic and a little entertainment at the First Battle of Bull Run do come to mind.

  90. Anon E. Moose says:

    A. West [88];

    That’s racist! Where’s sas3 when you need her?

  91. Libtard in Union says:

    JJ. You are so absolutely right. I’ll give anyone $9 to their $1 that on Monday we will raise the debt ceiling and will delay the implementation of any austerity measures.

    I have purposely ignored the TV and newspapers for the past week or so. And have not read one word on the topic except for what has been spouted here.

    Our country is literally filled with sheep! And I thought the Chinese were brainwashed.

    To put my money where my mouth is, I made a decent deposit to the old 529 today. It will purchase shares at the close today. That’s how confident I am that this political game is all a sham. Quite honestly, I bet these Dems and Repubs go out for dinner together after their hearings.

    Baa, baa!

  92. Shore Guy says:

    Ket,

    The Turkish armed forces are THE roadblock to an Islamic state. One must be concerned with actions that would seem to indicate that the ruling party, in its heart an Islamic party, is taking firmer control of the military.

  93. Barbara says:

    gotta agree with JJ

  94. gary says:

    Moose [93],

    LOL! Yes… We… F*cking… Can! :)

  95. Barbara says:

    93. Lib
    I’ll do you one better, I just locked in on a fat mortgage today! Huzzah!………..oysh…

  96. 3b says:

    #93 Lib: Was in Montclair yesterday evening first time in years; Bloomfield Ave looks tired, with lots of emptystore fronts. Did find a very nice Italian restaurant (byob).

  97. 3b says:

    #97 You should have went FHA!!!

  98. Libtard in Union says:

    Congrats Barb.

    3b…which pasta joint?

  99. BC Bob says:

    “this is a 100% manufactured for tv crisis.”

    JJ,

    I agree 100%. It’s simply political theatre, a game of chicken. However, it serves its purpose; distract the sheeple from the jobs crisis, the housing debacle and the world on the brink of a systemic implosion.

  100. Libtard in Union says:

    ^TNX – 2.83

  101. Anon E. Moose says:

    Lib [93];

    If the deal is cut Monday (probably after the market closes), wouldn’t the play be to place the buy order for Monday settlement and pick up the drop that will surely come like the sun?

  102. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “That $20 bottle of french or aussie wine will cost $40, but Cali vino won’t be any cheaper.”
    Were in a global market now Nom, if aussie wine doubles as a result of dollar weakness, so will cali wine, as foreigners will import more and increase demand to maintain parity.

  103. BC Bob says:

    By the way, protectionism? Bring back Smoot-Hawley? Are you proposing economic insanity?

    You don’t acquire something for nothing. All actions have an equal and opposite reaction. History proves that protectionism does not increase/save jobs. However, it does cause prices to rise, creates shortages/squeezes and leads to retaliation. Net effect you will be robbing from efficient manufacturers, curtailing US exports, while subsidizing inefficient manufacturers. Jobs? One industy gains, another losses.

    There will be no net increase in US jobs, inflation will skyrocket, food shortages will be rampant, world markets will crash, currency wars will ensue, eventually leading to world war. Oh, one other item, gold would go parabolic.

    Be careful what one wishes for. Then again, everything that dies someday comes back.

  104. 3b says:

    #00 Lib: I believe It was Gucarelli’s (may have botched the spelling), Bloomfield and Seymour St.

  105. Juice Box says:

    re #105- As the pie continues to shrink that is just what we are going to get Economic Insanity.

  106. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [77] pine brook

    Actually, I prefer that you not believe me.

    [78] pine brook

    I am convinced it is coming. And I am convinced it will change our economy and country. I am not convinced that everyone will be pleased about it.

  107. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    JJ,

    Bingo. There’ll either be a last minute deal to at a minimum raise the ceiling. There’ll also be a subsequent pop in the market for a week or two. Good time to sell stocks too. All signs point to a recession ahead if we aren’t in one already.

  108. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [105] Bob

    I know that. Pine Brook is the one that has to experience it for himself.

    BTW, I know a lot of “progressives” (newest term for soc1alist) that are perfectly fine with that as long as they bust up corporations and soak the rich. They are unwilling to concede that busting up (meaning actually ending) corporations and soaking the rich (good luck with that–you’ll be soaking an empty mansion), would actually make us all worse off. In their minds, it doesn’t matter so long as everyone has the same number of cheez-its.

  109. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [109] HEHEH

    I am looking to increase foreign exposure and gold, and dump US equities. I will look for the downdrafts today and monday to add the foreign. Then when the market pops and shiny takes it on the chin, dump US exposure and add more shiny.

  110. Juice Box says:

    Grapes of Wrath is back.

    The drought in Oklahoma has been described as worse than the Great Dust Bowl days of the 1930s

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-14296682

  111. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [105] bob

    BTW, don’t you think that factored into my thinking, re: Nompound? The obvious reaction when things start to really go south (U3 at 12% is my trigger) will be for the US to start selectively imposing tariffs, granting domestic tax breaks, and requiring the USG to buy american. That will provoke a retalitatory strike from the EU and others, and clot the WTO with suits. The US will ignore WTO orders and the cycle will continue.

    I think it will stop short of full “seal the borders” trade protection such as you envision, but certain “core” US industries will be heavily protected to varying degrees, such as autos, steel, agriculture, tobacco (yep), alcohol, selected building materials, textiles, paper, and selected tech.

    Eventually, we will tacitly agree with our trading partners that we will protect certain industries and avoid others. For example, we will protect autos and steel, but will cede personal tech and lumber to the rest of the world. If businesses did that, it would be an oligarchical restraint of trade, but if a sovereign does it, well . . .

  112. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [112] juice,

    rut roh.

  113. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    I’ll raise a rabbit and name him George. Nom and the rich that stay will get Robspierred to the Nth degree to satisfy the lust for blood from the unwashed. Whoever said it your right, all that is old is new again.

  114. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [104] Neand

    I think I made the same point, but based on tariffs raising the cost of the imported bottle. You could get the same effect through devaluation, and I don;t rule that out as a tool of the protectionist, but it is a dangerous tool to wield. Tariffs have less collateral damage.

  115. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [115] pain

    You have to stay in the riot zone in order to get Robespierred. I plan to do no such thing.

  116. 3b says:

    #09 We never came out of the alst one.

  117. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    good point nom out here in tawny morris county we just have to keep dover contained

  118. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Clot, Shore, Ket,

    This one’s for you. Especially Clot/Meat

    http://mercuryreliance.wordpress.com/2011/03/22/prepare-theres-nothing-else-to-say/

  119. Anon E. Moose says:

    Nom [113];

    I think tobacco has more to lose than gain from protectionism. Overseas is definitely their growth market, not the US.

    Heavy equipment (CAT), too. They love a weak dollar.

  120. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    One more thing to consider, and this is ominous, about a steep ramp up in protectionism: The effect on food and energy prices. Energy is easy to understand. We import oil, and if our dollar goes in the tank, well . . . Food is more complex. Our food will actually be cheaper for the world to buy, and there will be a natural reaction to export it (as this will be one of our few remaining exports). But that means a diminished supply. Even without that diminished supply, it would take more dollars to buy the food. But throw in shortages because farmers are selling it to China for hard currency instead of Chatanooga for fiat paper, and you will see things get ugly.

    The obvious reaction will be export controls on food, or some other tax measure to discourage exporting and encourage sales in the domestic market. In effect, we will artificially fix the price of food at these levels.

    Because every action has a reaction, the new effect will be for farmers to smuggle (imagine truckloads of grain or cattle heading across the canadian or mexican borders at night), or stop selling into the main distribution system. There have been farm strikes in the country before. And while we can import food at that point, the cost is so prohibitive that, well, you get the picture.

    Got Nompound???

  121. Kettle1^2 says:

    Unfortunately three is no going back economically. Our production methods have gotten too efficient. We first had this problem in the early 20’s and the solution was to develop consumerism. we have gotten orders of magnitude more efficient in manufacturing and have the ability to fully automate much of a given production process. the population has also grown by about 3X in the from 98 mil in 1920 and by about 4X globally.
    our overproduction capability has only gotten substantially worse over time. any economics that are based on labor wages and consumption is doomed by a large overproduction capacity. we could easily have robots performing most manufacturing jobs faster better and cheaper than humans ever could. trying to revert to a 1950’s model is a futile task of trying to have humans outperform automated production.

    there are a few different proposed economics models that attempt to address this but they certainly arent mainstream.

  122. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [122] moose

    I meant that we would protect it for domestic consumption, although devaluation would also accomplish that.

    Ironic huh? The USG stepping in to protect the american smoker.

    As for CAT, maybe, but if the retaliatory tariffs hit them, they protect Hyundai, Nissan, or Mahindra, all of which are getting into this area.

  123. pine_brook says:

    Nom and BC,
    What else would you do to stop the bleeding of jobs? What would Americans do in the face of dirt cheap foreign labor? It may sound oxymoronic, I am a beleiver in free market but it has to be done within our borders. As I mentioned here before, one guy who interviewed me told it costs 400K/year to keep a chemist here in US and he can get the same service in china for 75K. What can I do for living? Regan’s trickle down theory worked in the way of money came down to workers in the form of highly paying jobs. Now that is taken away by outsourcing. We have high salary/standard of living compared to rest of the world. The only way to maintain that status is protecting those wages. How would you do that in a way it is overall beneficial to us is the thinking we need right now.

  124. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    One final irony: If we succeed in protecting american industry, and bring back, for example, piecework in things like clothing or prepared foods, or other small industrials, who benefits?

    Most likely choice: the illegal aliens.

  125. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [126] pine

    I didn’t make a value judgment, I made a prediction. Capisce?

  126. JJ says:

    Good news is for most 401K deposit day is today. Buy cheap.

    I am still not convinced there is an unemployment issue. Normal Unemployment is like 5%, now we are at 10%, meanwhile over last 30 years we had an huge increase of the number of women in the workplace. Add in that figure and we have the most people working ever!!! In my town I would say 50% of Moms work. Lets say 10% of Dads are out of work. 30 years ago 5% of Dads were out of work and 100% of Moms were not working. Sounds to me that it is a 45% increase in jobs. Bull Market for Jobs baby.

  127. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Okay, its been fun but I am out. Great weekend, y’all

  128. Kettle1^2 says:

    Nom 123

    RE food

    modern industrial AG is completely reliant on substantial amounts of fertilizer(NPK) and pesticides. both of those products are primary oil derivatives. in we go full on protectionism the food prices by the nature of their production methods will also see substantial increases.

  129. pine_brook says:

    Nom,
    I am not a progressive. I think the Smoot-Hawley type legislation will come from the republicans.

  130. Juice Box says:

    re #126 – “Regan’s trickle down theory”

    It may have taken 3 decades but yeah it looks like it trickled us right into a depression.

    Classic Image from the Regan Days.

    http://www.prosebeforehos.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/trickle-down-economics.jpg

  131. Libtard in Union says:

    30 year closed at 2.81. Here comes the refi train.

  132. cobbler says:

    nom [34]
    Sorry to butt in so late…
    I think it will happen. We will say F U to the WTO.

    But if this happens, we become a closed economy. No exports or tourism of note b/c we will be too expensive.

    Obscenely expensive Switzerland (yet more so now after CHF went up by 50% v. USD and 20% v. overpriced EUR) is teeming with tourists. Couldn’t get a hotel room in Geneva last month for less than $500 a night, had to stay across the boder in france and take an hour long tram ride every morning…

  133. BC Bob says:

    Nom [113],

    In theory selected industries sounds OK. However, reality will dictate. There is nothing selective regarding trade wars. It would spread like an inferno. Any country that is the world’s largest debtor and the the largest consumer of imported energy would be playing Russian Roulette with a 2011 version of Smoot-Hawley.

    Another thought, US CEO’s, [there are a limited # of exceptions] don’t focus on capturing long term market share (think Toyota, late 70’s). They are short term driven thru stock incentives. Their carrot is quarterly results. They would enthusiastically exploit any form of tariffs/protectionism to raise prices, pump up share price as opposed to slowly increase market share. What has been gained besides their golden parachutes?

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that we won’t resort to protectionism. Elected officials will stand on any platform to garner election. My contention is that protectionism is the final nail in the coffin.

    As you have stated, the destruction of one’s currency is a quasi form of protectionism. Take a look at the USD/Swissie chart, in conjunction with trillions of stimulus and fiscal insanity. Net result; employment below 2000 levels, hourly wages declining, weekly hours declining and world prices rising at a rapid pace. If the architects of this mess ultimately defer to protectionism, after all else fails, we can all bend over and kiss it goodbye. One exception, of course, those living on the Nompound.

  134. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Two things that will result in the return of some jobs to the US in future decades

    1) Peak Oil – once the threshold is crossed where transportation costs exceed/approach the savings from labor arbitrage manufacturing will become decentralized which means some jobs will return to the US

    2) Increased balances in standards of living over time mean labor costs saving are diminished which will mean less outsourcing. I’ve read articles re Chinese and Indians complaining about losing business to the Philippines, Vietnam etc. Also read studies showing that in about ten years the labor savings in India for tech will have vanished if their salaries stay on the same path they are on now.

  135. Zack says:

    #137

    Regarding #2:
    I have heard this for over 15 years now when outsourcing first began in 1995. Fact of the matter is it takes a long time for rebalancing to happen. While labor price is increasing in India, they don’t have costs such as Healthcare, Medicare, Medicaid etc etc. So for a company, it is far cheaper to hire from overseas. The quality of Tech services have also improved with a lot expats moving to India manage projects. There is better QA/QC as compared to years before. Outsourcing is a tried and true model and the trend will continue for the foreseable future. In the long run we are all dead anyways…
    In the meantime, lets eat some chips and watch baseball while some 23 year old in India is furiously studying c++ to make himself marketable.

  136. grim says:

    30 year closed at 2.81. Here comes the refi train.

    Stay low baby, need 6 more weeks to finish the house and get my fat cash out.

  137. Way cool, some interesting arguments! I appreciate you making this article online, the rest of the site is also high quality. Have a great day.

  138. End of the day…a rainshower…yet, the stench of death clings to everything like a nasty piece of Scotch tape to a fur ball from a long-departed pet.

  139. That long-departed pet- in this case- is our self-delusional pipedream that we have a functioning economy.

  140. BC (136)-

    We have cultured financial ebola and have loosed it upon the world.

    We are now about to reap the whirlwind.

    “As you have stated, the destruction of one’s currency is a quasi form of protectionism. Take a look at the USD/Swissie chart, in conjunction with trillions of stimulus and fiscal insanity. Net result; employment below 2000 levels, hourly wages declining, weekly hours declining and world prices rising at a rapid pace. If the architects of this mess ultimately defer to protectionism, after all else fails, we can all bend over and kiss it goodbye. One exception, of course, those living on the Nompound.”

  141. Anyone know where I can get some monkey brains for sauteeing?

  142. Painhrtz - Cat of God says:

    they are in congress Clot, enjoy the oblivion and the 18 year, goodnight and good luck

  143. dreamtheaterr says:

    Stand in MetroPark or Edison and take the NJ Transit in to Manhattan during rush hour. You’ll think you’re on a train in India. Most of it is 21st century slave labor coming into Manhattan on grossly abused B1 and H1 visas and underpaid as hell. As soon as they get their out-of-jail Green Card, they permanently add to the labor pool here and compete for higher level IT jobs and move into managerial roles eventually, and have the decision making power to outsource out to India. And their wives who now have work authorization compete for the Target and Walmart jobs.

    Guys like Chuck Schumer have no f*cking idea what it is to compete against these folks.

  144. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [132] pine

    “I think the Smoot-Hawley type legislation will come from the republicans.”

    I think it will be bipartisan.

  145. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    oh snap.

    “I previously blogged (here and here) the charge by Todd J. Zywicki (George Mason) that Elizabeth Warren (Harvard) misrepresented tax data in her 2003 book, The Two Income Trap: Why Middle Class Mothers and Fathers are Going Broke (with Amelia Warren Tyagi). Todd revisited the issue yesterday in connection with Christopher Caldwell’s article in the Weekly Standard, Elizabeth Warren, Closet Conservative: The Most Misunderstood Woman in Washington:

    “[N]ote his list of increased expenses for household “big necessities: mortgages (up 76%), cars (up 52%), taxes (up 25%), and health insurance (up 74%).” The problem is that while it is an accurate representation for mortgages, cars, and health insurance, that the expenses increase by that percentage, it is not for taxes. For the other expenses it is the percentage increase in dollars spent on those expenses. For taxes, however, the 25% increase is actually the percentage increase in the percentage of income spent on taxes. So the 25% is not how many more dollars go to paying taxes, it represents the household’s change from paying 24% of its income in taxes to 33% of its income in taxes–a change of 25% in the percentage of income dedicated to taxes, not a change of 25% in spending on taxes. I swear I am not making this up: I have attached to the bottom of this post the full excerpt from this book where this is done. And, again, I have laid this out in considerable detail previously here.

    What this means is that once taxes are converted to an apples-to-apples comparison–percentage change in dollars instead of percentage change in percentage–household spending on taxes actually increased 140%, not 25%. The entire two-income trap, therefore, is actually a two-income tax trap, as I noted in my Wall Street Journal commentary on this awhile back. …

    In fact, based on their data once the math is done the real conclusions of Warren and Tyagi are inescapable and in fact (as Caldwell will be pleased to know) extremely conservative: the financial problems of the middle class are caused by an astonishing rise in the tax burden on middle class families over the past three decades. Nowhere, however, will one read Professor Warren advocating income and property tax cuts as the obvious policy implication of their book–although that is unambiguously the logical inference.”

  146. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Fabius,

    Little early Xmas present for you. I used to joust with these guys regularly.

    http://www.greenlining.org/resources/pdfs/CorporateAmericaUntaxed.pdf

    One of the trend items I had noted here before was the percentage of overall taxes paid by businesses over the decades. There are plausible explanations for it, but it doesn’t change the fact that the tax burden has been shifted to individuals, and within that group, to the wealthy (who used to pay a much smaller overall percentage of taxes). As I have said before, relying almost solely on the wealthy for our revenues is highly dangerous.

  147. Fabius Maximus says:

    #73 Nom
    1
    “And why is there a waiting list to meet a consular officer in London that is upwards of 15 months long?”

    because there is growing outflux from the UK of people who are deciding that they would rather not spend the next few years living through “Austerity Measures”. One of the most popular destinations is the US. Here is a number you can track. The number of EB5 or E2 visas. If those numbers start going down that would support your premise that the US is hostile for HNW.

  148. Fabius Maximus says:

    #151 Nom

    Nothing in there is a suprise. I have been saying for years that the biggest problem is that the corporate side of the revenue equation has been shrinking, and part of the many reasons is that income is shifted over to the HNW people at a 15% captial gains rate as opposed to the corporate tax rate.

  149. Fabius Maximus says:

    Nom

    UK is getting very agresssive on tax collection from “Johnnie Foreigner”
    http://www.international-adviser.com/article/nondoms-facing-new-taxes

  150. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Klinsmann is the new us soccer coach.

  151. Fabius Maximus says:

    Nom,

    Expect to see a lot more of this across the world. Its not just NY State saying if you have home, cough up.

    http://www.expatpensions.info/time_out_of_the_uk.php

  152. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Okay, you all have to read the end of the first post

    http://hodgen.com/phils-blog/

  153. veets (155)-

    Goddamit, that is the best news I’ve heard in months. Klinsmann should’ve had the job years ago.

    He’s light years ahead of Bradley, and the team is going to be prepared and tactically sound now…not to mention that Klinsmann will also figure out the right 11 to start the game.

  154. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [153] fabius

    S-corp and LLC income isn’t taxed at long term cap gain rates.

  155. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [156] fabius

    Easily handled, the property thing.

  156. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [154] fabius

    That news will be well-received in Ottawa, I think.

  157. Pat says:

    dt…”and have the decision making power to outsource out to India”

    Nothing new under the sun, so why target? Been going out for years and it wasn’t them doing it.

    Followers, once again.

  158. Fabius Maximus says:

    #158 Clot

    The Gooner in me as to say (in my best JJ fake German accent)

    Dive, Dive, Dive !
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tB7Y33VteME

    And I’m sure Oliver Khan sent congratulations!

  159. AG says:

    Power is out here. My off grid solar system provides my light. In another couple hours I will have to run my fridge off battery.

    On second thought. Why don’t I call 911 and ask the g_v to save me like the rest of the mother f_cking country.

    Better learn to survive. because I promise you this ends in horror.

  160. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [152] Fabius,

    Okay, challenge noted. First the wait was reported as one to meet a consular officer to renounce. It was also reported months ago. If the HNWs in the UK were prescient enough to see austerity coming and make their applications, perhaps we want them here. That said, your answer only holds up if consular officers do double duty and don’t have time for renunciants. Plausible enough, but one would think that new fee they imposed to renounce would cover the cost to hire someone. $450 for a half-hour meeting? Wish I took in that kind of money.

    Agree that a drop in EB5 numbers (E2 hardly bespeaks HNW) would suggest (but not prove) that the US is less desireable than the UK, but there are some problems with that logic.

    First, you are letting the tail wag the dog–not all of the EB5s are going because they are avoiding UK taxes. I believe that is a point you frequently make.

    Second, it proves only that the UK sucks worse than the US–says nothing about a lot of other jurisdictions (renouncing in the UK legally means nothing).

    Third, you are looking only at marginal income rates, I gather. My guess is that most US renunciants are driven primarily by estate taxes, not income taxes.

    Fourth, getting an EB5 visa doesn’t mean the applicant is escaping the UK or eventual UK taxation, whereas renouncing US citizenship means, well . . .

    One thing I noted was that while the number of EB5s have increased, what has increased even more is the number of accepted visas. Failure rate has dropped almost in half. Suddenly we aren’t so picky anymore.

  161. Fabius Maximus says:

    #160 Nom

    Can you hide the wife and kids as well?

  162. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Also, it occurs to me that the number of EB5 visas approved are less than the number of US renunciants now. I guess we are trying to replace what we are losing.

  163. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [166] fabius,

    Wife, maybe. Kids, no. Not a miracle worker.

  164. gluteus (163)-

    Since you’re a Gooner fan, allow me to remind you that the object of the game is to score more goals than the other team.

  165. Sometimes I think Wanker’s primary game objective is for his central midfielder to complete 100 passes.

  166. Fabius Maximus says:

    Nom,

    They are not all leaving the UK for the US and for the most part it is not for tax reasons, its more quality of life. Also it a lot of retirees (yes, retirees = estate taxes) . Destinations are split fairly equally between France, Spain, Austrailia, US and Canada.

    But if you are mid30’s /40’s sold a house and had GBP250K in the bank, you could parlay that into a nice bar in New Orleans for a new life.

    Its also funny that there is a big UK expat community hit upstate NY a few years back. Life in the Finger Lakes with close ties to Canada must have seemed very appealing.

  167. Fabius Maximus says:

    #169 Clot

    Wrong, the object of the game is to finish above Spurs in the league.

  168. Fabius Maximus says:

    Gary,

    Sorry to hear about the missus.

    One point that gets missed in all this. Without the catholic elementary schools, you do not have the feeder systems for the high schools. Graydon and Ellory, will head straight to RHS and will not consider Bergen, Paramus, Don Bosco or IHA because they will be following the social circle of friends. My money is on Bergen Catholic folding first as the location will be easiest to sell.

  169. Confused In NJ says:

    US review finds Iraq deadlier now than a year ago

    Interesting that the insurgents in every country we fight in, are always stonger & more capable, then the ones we support. Maybe we pick the wrong side?

  170. veets (172)-

    Until you get rid of Wanker, you’ll come up short on that one, too.

  171. Meredith Whitney is going to have the last laugh.

  172. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    “Interesting that the insurgents in every country we fight in, are always stonger & more capable, then the ones we support. Maybe we pick the wrong side?”

    How else do you expect them to keep the wars going for decades? Plus the military knows if we pull up and come home their budgets will get slashed;)

  173. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Clot 172 was fabius.

  174. BC Bob says:

    Meat [177],

    8% guaranteed pension returns, borrow from pension fund, divert pension money, hide a debt via OTC derivatives, the economy/re will bounce back, increasing tax revenues, blah, blah, blah.

    Every tactic has been an exercise in futility, every projection/false hope has been pie in the sky. The day they all cringed about, tomorrow, is here. The great unwind is in its early stages. Not many realize that this is structural, not cyclical; Depression 2.0. This will get much uglier before there is any ray of hope.

  175. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Fabius, i know you follow the game pretty closely but if you think the klinsmann clip at 163 was a 100% gratuitous dive then id have to conclude that youre a really die hard. Gooner fan or never really played the sport at a competitive level past the age of 15. Either that or possibly youre a ref. Most refs get that call wrong. I happen to agree with the red. Just because he exaderated the flop to make sure he gets the call doesn’t change the defenders top speed head on dive speer into and through the attacker.

  176. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Meat 158, I was hoping for bobby knight but klinsmann will do just fine…

  177. Shore Guy says:

    Something that the liberals who cannot understand why Republicans seem so unwilling to compromise need to understand, and it is something I and other fiscal conservatives here have been talking about for some time:

    http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/The-Vote/2011/0730/Debt-ceiling-crisis-Why-won-t-Republicans-compromise

    As the United States moves closer to an Aug. 2 default on some of its payments – perhaps including checks for Social Security recipients and veterans – it is becoming ever clearer that the two most important numbers in the debt-ceiling crisis are 1982 and 1990.

    snip

    What happened in those two years? Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush both agreed to tax increases after Congress promised to make even greater cuts to spending. In both cases, the tax increases took effect, the spending cuts did not

    snip

    The conservative House Republicans who have walked away from compromise plans by the White House and Senate simply do not trust Congress to do what it says it will do.

    They see in Democratic plans the same empty promises to get what Democrats want (a raise in the debt ceiling) while proposing cuts that will never take effect. And they see in the debt-ceiling crisis the lever to at last break Congress of that pattern.

    snip

  178. Shore Guy says:

    Maybe Apple can execute a hostile takeover of the USG:

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-apple-cash-20110730,0,6198166.story

    By David Sarno, Los Angeles Times

    July 29, 2011, 9:10 p.m.
    Apple Inc. may not have more money than God. But it’s got more cash than Uncle Sam.

    snip

  179. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Shore 183 Agree with the post, however- we are in bad shape as far as the economy & on the brink of another recession ( you know the GDP /unemployment #s) if we really ever got out of the first. Is now the time to make our stand ? We could be cutting off our nose to spite our face.

  180. Shore Guy says:

    Mike,

    If we do not cut off the foot, we will soon say goodbye to the while leg, or the whole patient.

  181. Shore Guy says:

    Maybe congress can sell naming rights, for instance:

    The Goldman Sachs Treasury Department.

    The Exxon Mobil Energy Department

  182. Shore Guy says:

    Wells Fargo House Ways and Means Committee Chair etc.

  183. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Shore 187 /188 Why not they own them anyway.

  184. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Shore 186 I guess we have to bite the bullet at some point.

  185. Shore Guy says:

    Mike,

    Picture a guy who has been tossed overboard from a ship, but who is wearing a life jacket. That is a nation in debt. Over the course of time, our friend bobbing in the water comes across someone else, congress, who hands him a few lead weights (extra debt added to the debt ceiling). Inasmuch as the life jacket is sound, at first the extra weight has little effect. Over the course of time, our little friend keeps taking on more and more lead weights. At some point, the added weight decreases our friend’s mobility but, since his head is still above water, his companion keeps handing him more lead weights. As people start to protest the danger, our little friend’s companion, congress, retorts, “I have saddled him with extra weight 75 times before and no ill has come of it and you have never bothered to complain before. I think you are making a political statement and nothing more.”

    Mike, as we keep adding weight to our little friend, there will come a point when, regardless of the quality of the life jacket (our natural and human resources) he will sink. When nations collapse, it tends to be a rapid and rather energetic event and it often seems to come out of nowhere. People delude themselves if they believe that it could not happen to the United States. Just because we have existed for quite some time does not mean that we will exist in the same form a year from now.

    My family has been here since the 1600s and I would like for my great grand children and their great grandchildren to die in this country under our constitution; however, if congress does not worry more about their posterity instead of their posteriors I do not have great faith that this will happen.

    I would love to provide all the benefits that congress has promised various constituancies but, we over promised and cannot afford to make good on the promises. It is high time congress leveled with the public, slashed the budget, regardless of fallout, and set the nation on a sustainable budgetary course. We have, what, $14T in debt and O wants another 2-odd T between now and the election. Now, insamuch as we are borrowing something like $.43 of everu $1 we spend, we can anticipate adding another $4 T to the budget bu the ’16 election. Let’s assume we are in balance by then, that $20T in debt will take us something on the order of $40T to repay over 30 years. That is over $1T a year just paying off old debts.

    This cannot continue. It just cannot.

    One may agree or diasgree with particular cuts one party or another wants to make. That said, cut we must and the cuts must be deep. Our nose may be sticking out above water but, the slightest ripple in the water might kill us. The fiscal hawks on the Republican side see this and, one may excuse them for their unwillingness to compromise on the issue of making deep cuts and demanding a balanced-budget amendment, for they see the danger and are worried about posterity.

    I know that liberals will point to the spending that got us out of the depression as a model for what we must do. Hogwash! We had a different economy back then and we had different levels of private and public debt back then. Just as a middle-aged or old man cannot drink, eat and carouse the way he could when he was 20, a nation in the economic situation we find ourselves cannot behave the way we did 70-odd years ago.

  186. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore 191

    History tends to show that unless we stop printing the end game is virtually guaranteed. Yes, if we stop printing we will default to some degree, even if we make instant and substantial cuts to all levels of spending and raise taxes across the board.

    The only reason we haven’t sunk ( to use your analogy) is that interest rates have been heavily manipulated.

    No government in history has been able to print their way out of a debt trap. We are no different then every other empire that has tried it.

    We are at a very nasty catch 22 now. if we make those massive cuts, make the tax increases, and undergo a partial targeted default, you will probably see substantial civil unrest that would be dangerous to the stability of the US government. if you dont do that you face civil unrest through the destabilization of the US dollar and its subsequent knock-on effects.

    The first choice has the potential for a positive long term outcome as painful as the short term “amputation” may be. The second choice is the diabetic that refuses the amputation and faces a very real possibility of systemic gangrene.

  187. Kettle1^2 says:

    SHore

    I know that liberals will point to the spending that got us out of the depression

    That is hogwash, the spending did not end the depression! what got us out of the depression was WWII. what got us out was destroying the rest of the worlds manufacturing base. with american bombs

  188. Shore Guy says:

    Ket,

    Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. They also don’t realize that bombing every other nation’s infrastructure (well not everyone’s but the point is made) gave us quite a competititive advantage.

  189. Shore Guy says:

    This should get the usual liberal whiners in a tizzy:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-are-we-in-this-debt-fix-its-the-elderly-stupid/2011/07/28/gIQA08LtfI_story.html

    If leadership is the capacity to take people where they need to go — whether or not they realize it or want it — then we’ve had almost no leadership in these weeks of frustrating and maddening debate over the budget and debt ceiling. There’s been an unspoken consensus among President Obama, congressional Democrats and Republicans not to discuss the central issue underlying the standoff. We’ve heard lots about “compromise” or its absence. We’ve had dueling budgets with differing mixes of spending cuts and tax increases. But we’ve heard almost nothing of the main problem that makes the budget so intractable.

    It’s the elderly, stupid.
    By now, it’s obvious that we need to rewrite the social contract that, over the past half-century, has transformed the federal government’s main task into transferring income from workers to retirees. In 1960, national defense was the government’s main job; it constituted 52 percent of federal outlays. In 2011 — even with two wars — it is 20 percent and falling. Meanwhile, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and other retiree programs constitute roughly half of non-interest federal spending.

    These transfers have become so huge that, unless checked, they will sabotage America’s future. The facts are known: By 2035, the 65-and-over population will nearly double, and health costs remain uncontrolled; the combination automatically expands federal spending (as a share of the economy) by about one-third from 2005 levels. This tidal wave of spending means one or all of the following: (a) much higher taxes; (b) the gutting of other government services, from the Weather Service to medical research; (c) a partial and dangerous disarmament; (d) large and unstable deficits.

    Older Americans do not intend to ruin America, but as a group, that’s what they’re about. On average, the federal government supports each American 65 and over by about $26,000 a year (about $14,000 through Social Security, $12,000 through Medicare). At 65, the average American will live almost 20 more years. Should these sizable annual subsidies begin later and be less for some? It’s hard to discuss the budget realistically if you ignore most of what the budget does.

    That’s been our course. Obama poses as one brave guy for even broaching “entitlement reform” with fellow Democrats. What he hasn’t done is to ask — in language that is clear and comprehensible to ordinary people — whether many healthy, reasonably well-off seniors deserve all the subsidies they receive. That would be leadership. Obama is having none of it. But the shunning is bipartisan. Tea Party advocates broadly deplore government spending without acknowledging that most of it goes for popular Social Security and Medicare.
    snip

  190. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore

    if the US stops printing the big US banks collapse. Due to globalization of the banking systems a collapse of the big US banks and an endvto printing probably triggers a global banking crisis.

    What politician has the grande brass cojones to nuke the global banking system? He better watch out for stray headshots as well

  191. Barbara says:

    195.
    Liberal whiners? More like Tea Party oldtimers who haven’t thought things through and decided hating the black dude in office is more fun then voting their own interests. That chicken is coming to roost.

  192. cobbler says:

    shore [195]
    Expected ratio of retirees per worker in the U.S. even at the peak of the boomers’ retirement is lower than it is now in Japan and large parts of the western Europe (please not that I am not talking Greece but Germany or Holland). I don’t know much about the Japanese pension scheme to pass judgments, though the health care there is a single payer system, and lifespan is much longer than here. In Europe, however, average government pension benefit is sufficient for the comfortable life without added personal savings (and again, most countries have single payer healthcare systems of one sort or another). Our problem is more of a [lack of] societal cohesion and feeling that “we are in this together” (by paying 50% or more in taxes you are supporting your neighbors’ parents as well as yours, and you don’t mind since you know and like these folks) versus perception of most anyone less well off as a moocher and freeloader not deserving of anything besides maybe gruel and water. To be fair, our government mightily contributed to this perception by setting up all sorts of welfare schemes for the able-bodied not requiring work in exchange for benefits; I’d love to see this eliminated – but the savings will be close to zero. I personally will be more than happy not to contribute 21% of my pay (15% directly and 6% employer match) to 401K – and not to have to manage it and waste my working time following the markets – and instead pay 2/3 of this in extra taxes in exchange for the pension that is similar to the ones my colleagues in Europe will receive upon their retirement. Ditto, I am pretty confident that the amount of money I and my employer together spend on the medical coverage and copays – if taken as tax and paid by someone like Medicare – will be way more than adequate. And finally, right now I pay full fare for my kids’ college – and I also indirectly pay for the less well off either through my taxes, or through the artificially boosted tuition (so that the college could give them grants); I’d love to see the college education free for all truly capable of benefiting for it in exchange for 2 or 3% extra tax…

  193. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    I’m shocked, shocked, to discover that there is gambling going on here. . . .

    “TRENTON — New Jersey prosecutors say a campaign worker has admitted submitting fraudulent absentee ballots in a 2007 state senate race.

    Angel Colon faces three years in state prison when he’s sentenced in January 2012. He pleaded guilty Friday in state Superior Court to election fraud.

    The 48-year-old Newark resident helped collect ballots on behalf of Teresa Ruiz, who won the election and still serves in the senate. He admitted submitting messenger ballots on behalf of voters in the Essex County-based 29th District without their knowledge.

    Messenger ballots are designed for those too sick or confined to make it to the polls on Election Day.

    Authorities have said Ruiz and her staff cooperated fully in the investigation.”

  194. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    If she ever has an opponent, perhaps getting people to show up at her events with big Asterisks on posterboard would send a nice message.

    Or next election, get a bunch of her campaign signs and put them up on gravesites in cemeteries.

  195. Barbara says:

    Angel Colon…the jokes write themselves.

  196. cobbler says:

    nom [199]
    What a weird case… why would it make a difference to get 75% (without fraud) or 85% (with) of the vote?.. Maybe the pay depended on the number of homes visited by the messenger (measured by the ballots collected)?

  197. Kettle1^2 says:

    This should get SAS3 in a tizzy

    Even as the political posturing over who spent what, how much and when reaches ridiculous levels, courtesy of the St. Louis Fed it is a short 5 minute process to fact check (thanks to the St Louis Fed’s Fred) what the average annual federal expenditures, investment and consumption were/are under the regimes of Bush and Obama respectively. It also allows us to see what the average government saving, or rather, borrowing has been under the two administrations. The result, or rather the step function contained therein, may surprise some. Furthermore, we present a few observations from Sean Corrigan’s latest later on the proclivity of the Obama administration to spend…. and spend… and spend… which demonstrates that while there certainly may be carryover from the previous administration, the eagerness of the current one to fund a record amount of disposable income via state transfer funding can not be blamed on the Bush by any sane person.

    First, a head to head comparison of expenditures, investment and consumption. Net result: a 332% difference when it comes to net average annual savings (or rahter the opposite). Guess in whose favor.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bush-vs-obama-facts-and-observations

  198. Kettle1^2 says:

    I take no position on 203. I think they’re all more or less equally corrupt and useless.

  199. Shore Guy says:

    Kettle,

    G.W. Bush was a pen-is and Obama is a geni-tal wart on one. 300 million of us and THIS is the best our system can produce? It is pathetic.

  200. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore 192

    If you were in a position to make political decisions how would you address the current situation. Would you stop the printing?

  201. Kettle1^2 says:

    Nom,

    have fun with this statement from obama last tuesday

    “Keep in mind,” “that under a balanced approach, the 98% of Americans who make under $250,000 would see no tax increases at all.”

  202. cobbler says:

    kettle[203]
    I am amazed ZH would present this article, it is so patently misusing statistics… which is also an opinion of most commenters on ZH…

  203. veets (181)-

    Agreed. The red card was correct, because the defender’s intent to injure was clear.

  204. Someone please wake me up when it’s time to begin shooting.

  205. While I’m in marksman mode, I like to be addressed as “Lee Harvey”.

    Woe be to him who wavers from this demand.

  206. Shore Guy says:

    Kettle,

    I opted not to take a Ph.D in econ,, so this is not an assessment by someone steeped in the finer points of economics, not that the economists I have known, think Counsel of Economic Advisors, see to really have their acts together:

    It is unsustainable and unfair to our posterity to routinely run deficits of 40-odd percent. If I were given magic powers, I would first cut congressional, presidential, and cabinet pay by 25%, to set an example of sacrifice. I would then cut every benefit program by 10% and make a 10% across-the-board cut in every department and agency and allow the agencies and departments to cut whatever non-mission-critical activities or personnel they could before resorting to whatever across-the-board cut is necessary to reach the 10% figure. Next, I would examine what remains and delete from the budget any agency, department, commission the nation can survive without. I would, however, require the parks, historical sites, archives, etc. to remain ans they teach us about ourselves and provide us with escapes from the day-to-day world and are important to a healthy society. The goal being as close to immediate 25% reduction in the cost of government.

    To close the rest of the gap, and to raise some additional funds that will be necessary to respond to the ripples from the goverrnment shrinking, I would implement tax reform, and move to a flat tax on all income over, say, $10,000. It makes no difference whether cap gain, interest, dividands, wages, royalties, rent, everyone would pay the same rate. There would be no exemptions for anything. While lowering the overall top marginal tax rates, it would bring in more income and reduce compliance costs.

    On a local level, libraries are also critical infrastructure, as far as I am concernerd, and serve as an equalizing force in society — allowing people to achieve further education on their own.

  207. Shore Guy says:

    Kettle,

    I would also encourage the Fed to have a fire, wherin all the Treasury bonds they hold get incinerated. Poof! goes a large part of our debt.

  208. Shore Guy says:

    see=seem

  209. Shore Guy says:

    Ket,

    Once the budget is in balance, I would suggest that a certain surtax may be appropriate for one purpose, paying down existing debt, say 3% of outstanding debt every year. Off of $20T in debt, which we will soon have, that is $2,000 per person/year in surtax. It is our debt, not our grandkid’s and we should be the ones to pay it down.

  210. cobbler says:

    shore [212]
    I would then cut every benefit program by 10% and make a 10% across-the-board cut in every department and agency and allow the agencies and departments to cut whatever non-mission-critical activities or personnel they could before resorting to whatever across-the-board cut is necessary to reach the 10% figure. Next, I would examine what remains and delete from the budget any agency, department, commission the nation can survive without.
    Unfortunately, you will have to spend enough in unemployment insurance, foodstamps and Medicaid for the newly unemployed about as much as you saved by cutting and slashing (especially having in mind that they will drop off from the tax rolls, and cause the chain reaction of reduced consumption through the whole economy). While immediate closing the deficit cold turkey, when the economy is already depressed, is an economic disaster no matter how you approach it , at least doing it from the tax side will largely extract the capital sitting in the cash accounts of the corporations and well-off, and reduce the consumption much less than across-the-board expense slashing, especially of the type you are suggesting.

  211. shore (212)-

    I like your plan, but there have to be show trials and executions. Whom do you propose we scapegoat, then give the Mussolini Sendoff?

  212. Shore (212)-

    You should really look into some extra protection for yourself. The ideas you propose make you a dangerous person to several million civil service shufflers.

    Common sense is an uncommon thing…and people who exercise it tend to get targeted.

  213. cobbler (216)-

    Dolt, all your “entitlements” will be gone under Shore’s plan. There will be no UE insurance, foodstamps or Medicaid. The Joads of the world will pack up their jalopies (or their one-way rented Penske trucks) and drive until the tank is empty. When the gas runs out and the truck is abandoned on the side of the road, the passengers can plant some tomatoes and hope they grow.

    Perhaps a few families of the wandering vagrant can band together and extract tribute or protection money from others in the same sorry state. Other than that, bend over and kiss your arse goodbye, because we’re all just now getting the wake up call that we’ve been dumped into the Third World hellhole we created for ourselves in 1913.

    There’s your mf’ing entitlement.

    “Unfortunately, you will have to spend enough in unemployment insurance, foodstamps and Medicaid for the newly unemployed about as much as you saved by cutting and slashing (especially having in mind that they will drop off from the tax rolls, and cause the chain reaction of reduced consumption through the whole economy).”

  214. cobbler says:

    clot [218]
    Nah – ideologues are usually safe, look at Grover Norquist… I will try however to arrange having some liquor stores in JC looted…

  215. Honestly, can someone explain to me why I should vote when all I really need to do is shoot the guy running on the other side?

    Pardon my Argentinianess.

  216. cobbler (220)-

    If you get anywhere near me or my business, you will be in the middle of a hail of bullets.

  217. I tend to ask questions later, too.

  218. cobbler says:

    clot [219]
    As the 2nd amendment will stay holy, the Joads will not drive to their death in the desert… they will start shooting which wouldn’t end well. Desire to cut UE and foodstamps is very poor reason for starting a civil war (and by the way, UE is a contribution program).

  219. cobbler says:

    Impoverished people who are armed are extremely difficult to control, have this in mind…

  220. Dolt, UE is a contribution program in which productive people like me- who employ lots of other people- pay an arbitrary amount on behalf of a bunch of slack-ass losers that I’ll never (thank God) meet.

    Go look at a paycheck in France for a typical hourly wage worker. The stub is twice as big as the check, and all the cry-ass deductions for the employer mean that the employer would rather work 85 hours a week than hire some soci@list twaddle-infused drone to fcuk up his business then tap him out on endless claims against assets that aren’t his and haven’t been earned.

    Handing people who don’t even deserve a wage the equity of someone else’s hard work and risk is a great way to bring back the end of the Roman empire.

  221. cobbler (225)-

    Impoverished people in Amerika are subsidized and neutralized by the Dumbocratic party. When the war comes, they will fight on the side of the gubmint, as they know no better than to protect their communal teat.

    The people who are dangerous with weapon in hand are the disenfranchised middle class.

  222. cobbler (225)-

    You think impoverished people will take action and bear arms? Look at the goddam gun buyback programs in any city in the US. These people will trade a perfectly good weapon for just enough money to buy a case of malt liquor.

  223. cobbler says:

    clot [228]
    Oh yeah, they will… as soon as food and bunk in jail start looking not worse than staying out in the cold, and death starts looking not worse than life… Btw, the buyback programs are a sham – the stuff turned in is either useless, or brought by the grannies, or what the guys stole from each other.

  224. Essex says:

    While I admire the sentiment of all who post here regarding their prescience in what looks to be a double dip. I think that there are productive legislative ways that we can get ourselves out of any crunch we are in. Let’s remember that Laws Are Our Friends.

  225. Kettle1^2 says:

    essex

    Laws Are Our Friends

    LOL

  226. Kettle1^2 says:

    Cobbler, meat

    look at Argentina if you want the answer

  227. free ipad 2 says:

    Do you have a Facebook page or Twitter? Would love to follow you there, I’m on my iPhone and love reading your stuff!

  228. Mocler Sale says:

    Good article,I will follow your articles.fighting

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