From CNN Money:
Housing recovery slips out of sight
Any glimmer of hope that the housing market will stage a recovery in the upcoming months has vanished, thanks to the recent spate of bad economic news that has been making headlines over the past several weeks.
According to the latest analysis of home price trends in 384 markets based on the Fiserv/Case-Shiller Indexes, it will be well into the first quarter of 2013 before median home prices across the nation will even be on par with prices from the first quarter of this year.
And that’s not saying much. During the first quarter of 2011, prices fell in 302 of the 384 housing markets tracked by the Fiserv/Case-Shiller index, dropping by an average of 5.1% year-over-year.
As a result of continued weakness on the jobs front and the debt ceiling fiasco, Fiserv pushed back its projections of a housing market turnaround by three months. Now, it doesn’t expect home prices to start gaining any ground until the second quarter of 2012.
…
Instead, Fiserv expects median home prices to continue to fall by an average of 3.1% between March 31 of this year and March 31, 2012. After that, it expects to see prices increase by 2.7% until the first quarter of 2013.“Every piece of bad news causes more people to be more nervous,” said David Stiff, chief economist for Fiserv, which provides information management and analyses data for the financial services industry. “The stabilization of housing markets depends greatly on household confidence in the strength of the economic recovery. Unfortunately, recent economic news has done little to build confidence.”
From the NYT:
A Wave of Worry Threatens to Build on Itself
Employers delaying or suspending hiring. Home buyers getting cold feet. Shoppers pulling back on spending.
Hesitation is weakening the American economy, as Monday’s disastrous day on Wall Street reaffirmed what many companies and ordinary Americans have been fearing for weeks: this is too tumultuous a time for businesses or households to be contemplating expansion.
Just a few months ago, analysts were predicting that the economy would grow about 4 percent this year. The forecast is now closer to half that number as a wave of pessimism sweeps the country.
“Everybody gets into this hangdog demeanor with respect to economic expectations,” said Paul Laudicina, chairman of A. T. Kearney, a consulting firm. “People sit on their wallets because they feel like everything is going to get worse, and things get worse because people are sitting on their wallets.”
…
The watchfulness extends beyond hiring. The most recent government reports of consumer spending and factory orders show that both have been falling. The prices of commodities have also dropped in anticipation of an economic slowdown, with crude oil down 29 percent since April. Shoppers for homes are also delaying offers as anxiety grows about the stock market, real estate agents report.
Prospective buyers like Nicole Zachariae are haunting the housing market. Late last week, on the heels of a 500-point one-day drop of the Dow Jones index, Ms. Zachariae and her husband, Brian, went house-hunting. The lush green cul-de-sacs of northern New Jersey were as enticing as ever, but Ms. Zachariae was suddenly feeling more protective of her money — and less eager to buy.
“I don’t live and die by the market,” she said, “but this has rocked me.”
Shannon Moore, a real estate broker in Sarasota, Fla., said many people were electing to wait out the turmoil on the sidelines. “I don’t know how many tours I’ve given where people say, ‘I’ll be back in three months,’ ” she said.
Some housing experts warn that further declines in home prices could help set off another recession. “The wait-and-see attitude begets more bad economic data, and it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy,” said Andrew D. Goldberg, market strategist for J.P. Morgan Funds, an asset manager.
The downward cycle that could be at play is known by some economists as a “feedback loop” — when one piece of bad economic data has a way of making everything else worse.
Good Morning New Jersey
Wife’s parents were eager to sell house until realtors suggested list price was too low only 2.5x’s what they paid about 10 years ago. New strategy? Wait till the market gets better this spring.
Not a bad strategy if they are in an area where younger families typically buy due to the schools.
School buyers are all but gone at this point. Once we get through the August closings, it is all down hill until the seasonal bottoms are reached around February.
That said, good luck with the higher prices. At best they are looking at the same pricing as current, only a higher probability of actually selling.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro
Yes but will waiting add %15 to the price? I guess we could see housing stimulus this spring who knows. It’s a beach town btw
3.
2.5 x 2001 pricing. Did they tile the basement with gold?
Wait till the market gets better this spring.
Which market?
15% higher?
I’m sure theyll find an agent to take it at their ask come spring.
Selling it for 15% higher come spring is a pipe dream.
I just saw that Santelli clip from yesterday. Steve Liesman actually says with a straight face that the US has the ability to pay its debts today as much as it did five years ago. How does that guy have a job? Other than re-gurgitating whatever the gubmint or FED has to say and then agreeing with it wholeheartedly does he add anything of “value”. At the minimum replace him with one of those spokesmodels they got working the anchor chairs.
Ben is riding to Wall Streets rescue today. He will bankrupt the world, worshipping the Golden Calf idol, on Wall street. I wonder who really pays his salary?
No PPT in the house today, all Big Ben to save the day.
Do we get QE3 today?
Anyone else refinancing this morning? Just got 4% on a 20-year no cost. Down from 4.75%. Looks like I just took 9.5 years off my Glen Ridge Mortgage for $271 more a month. Not bad. Not bad at all.
This “think piece” (or what passes for a think piece on CNBC) is short on specifics, but hits all the relevant points.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44066929
[14] Libtard
I would if I thought I was staying. Now that is very much in doubt.
Rent[13],
No QE3 today, to quick, Ben is always behind the curve, markets will sell the news, look for a wild afternoon swing. Selling my FAZ I picked up yesterday right before the anouncment.
We need someone to ask Ben today if he still think that shiny is not money?
The crazy thing about my refi is that from the time I went under contract on the Glen Ridge home to the time I got out of attorney review, interest rates went up .75! I’m glad to get it back.
Here’s another article that sums up succintly what I have been observing
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-09/polarized-electorate-suggests-obama-win-in-2012-ramesh-ponnuru.html
/snip
“Rethinking 2008
Oddly enough, it was the next presidential race, with no incumbent running, that looked more like a classic referendum. Obama and the Democrats ran against Senator John McCain on a platform of “no third term” for Bush. McCain, of course, tried to make the campaign a choice, and during the late summer had some success in defining Obama as an untested liberal.
The collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in mid- September 2008 reframed the election as a referendum, just as Obama wanted it. It led voters to pay more attention to economic conditions and less to the perceived merits of the candidates. It put Bush, the incumbent, in the center of the action. And it briefly moved people who usually vote Republican to rethink their allegiance.
This time, Republicans are the ones who want a referendum. The message they have in mind is simple, and the question they want voters to consider is the same as in 1980: Are you better off now than you were four years ago? Is unemployment higher or lower? The national debt? Do you think Obama is up to the job?
Mitt Romney kicked off his campaign by delivering a succinct verdict: “Barack Obama has failed America.” After last weekend, Republicans will also say: Has America’s credit improved or deteriorated?
Obama’s Strategy
If the election is fought on those lines, then Obama will almost certainly lose. His strategy will therefore be to make it a choice election. He is going to want the small number of swing voters to think: No, I’m not satisfied with how things are going and I have my doubts about Obama, but I’m more worried about the radicalism of the Republicans on Medicare and their fealty to big business.
As far as anyone can tell today, perceptions of the economy on Election Day are going to be closer to what they were in 2008 than what they were in 2004. That’s what the Republican referendum theory has going for it. But the president’s approval rating tells a different story. Since Obama’s honeymoon ended, it has moved in a fairly narrow range, never going below 44 percent and rarely going above 51 percent in the RCP average. It doesn’t put him in cinch-to-win or sure-loser territory.
That suggests that the election is going to be a choice — and that merely being an acceptable alternative to a failed incumbent won’t be enough for the Republicans to win the White House.”
***********
The author also suggests (but does not come out and state) that keeping a polarized electorate is actually a tactic for Obama. We have viewed his polarizing statements and positions as naivete on his part, especially because he promised to govern more inclusively. Perhaps that isn’t so.
[17] make
It’s been money for me!!!
Do I have this right? Verizon union workers are on strike in part because the company wants to tie raises to performance evaluations? This is a joke, right?
“tie raises to performance evaluations?”
Following in the footsteps of our public sector workers I suppose.
London is burning:
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/europe/08/09/uk.riots/index.html?eref=rss_world&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_world+%28RSS%3A+World%29
(19) Oh, so this is all part of Chairman O’s plan for a Great Leap Forward to victory in 2012? Whew! For a moment there, I was getting a little worried …
Green shoots!
Fing stupid moron looters in London.
http://imgur.com/KVvgW
Jimmy Carter 2.0 from the WSJ
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904140604576495932704234052.html
From a friend;
The market was set to decline 1,000 points yesterday. Once O spoke the decline was limited to 660. There will be a news conference later today. O will touting how he saved 340 dow points. Better yet, how he created 340 dow points.
Juice [26],
Great article. It’s so easy to see through this guy and the sham that he is that I wonder how people can be so easily had. If I was born without a conscience, I’d be a millionaire today. Arrogance can be impressive when done correctly but arrogance coupled with ignorance results in stupidity. In the case of the Annointed one, it borders comedy.
Why do you come here ?
And why do you hang around ?
I’m so sorry
I’m so sorry
Why do you come here
When you know it makes things hard for me ?
When you know, oh
Why do you come ?
Why do you telephone ? (Hmm…)
And why send me silly notes ?
I’m so sorry
I’m so sorry
Why do you come here
When you know it makes things hard for me ?
When you know, oh
Why do you come ?
You had to sneak into my room
‘just’ to read my diary
“It was just to see, just to see”
(All the things you knew I’d written about you…)
Oh, so many illustrations
Oh, but
I’m so very sickened
Oh, I am so sickened now
re #28 – Gary – might as well have some fun with this new MEME, if it hit the WSJ you know people are talking. I just sent it on Facebook to his biggest supporter in my family, someone who raised lots of money for his campaign. Should be fun watching him squirm at our next family GTG in Sept. I am sure he will walk the other way with his tail between his legs when he sees me coming.
#26 Juice
“Then there is Mr. Obama as political tactician. He makes predictions that prove false. He makes promises he cannot honor. He raises expectations he cannot meet. ”
I would refer back to that piece posted a few days back.
” Look, here’s my expectation, and I’ll take John Boehner at his word, that nobody, Democrat or Republican is willing to see the full faith and credit of the United States government collapse.”
Was that such an unrealistic expectation from O?
Funniest tweet I saw yesterday.
“Now every AAA rated nation has universal healthcare!”
So after this short covering mini-rally before the Fed speaks what happens next?
Juice,
It’s called moxie, charisma… some people have it, some don’t. This president doesn’t have it. His lips move but I can’t hear what he’s saying. In these trying times, the country needs a leader, not a narcissist and bullsh1t artist.
I will say it again, owning equities now is unthinkable. Unless you plan on holding on to your portofolio for 15 years, you wil get trounced.
Look at the first 30 minutes of trading, the volatility in the indecies show a market that is totally broken and devoid of rational thinking.
35.
There is only one thing that is safe. Cash aint it.
“If I was born without a conscience, I’d be a millionaire today. ”
if only…
if you were born with a million dollars, found a million dollars on the street, invented the ipod, discovered the recipe for coca cola by accident while cooking in your kitchen one day and then realized that people really liked it, won the lottery, etc, etc, etc…you would be a millionaire today
What’s the best way for “gary” to make a million dollars? Start with two million. Bahahaaaaa
#3 Xroads – My latest terminology for homeowners who want to wait for Spring is, act now and “RESCUE YOUR EQUITY”! In the current environment real estate equity is like a Tootsie Pop. It takes a lot of licks but it eventually dissolves.
The problem is that too many of them have no f*cking equity!
re: Fabius – what collapse of US credit? It did not happen, and won’t happen.
Do not come to a war expecting peace. Hillary would have done better, she is a better warrior and so is Biden. O needs to listen to his generals. The S&P downgrade was happening whether the debt ceiling was raised or not, since it was an attempt to raise Romney in the polls.
Look behind the curtains.
Essex [38],
And if the progressive, ivory tower charlatans had their way, they’d see to it.
The very moment that Ben announces or hints towards QE3, I expect Fitch and Moody’s to follow the S&P and downgrade USA to AA+.
Let’s check the scorecard thus far, QE1, QE2 cost hundreds of billions (if not trillions) of dollars. What did we receive for this? GDP is stalling, Unemployment has not changed by any meaningful amount (back out the “no longer seeking employment” category and we likely got worse), housing has failed to show any recovery, etc.
Are we really willing to go the QE3 route so that we can maintain the equity market bubble? Is that worth our money?
When I was 21, I went to vegas. Lost every penny I brought with me in 2 days. My last night, I convinced myself to take a $500 cash advance against my credit card. 5 hours later, I had lost that as well. Sure it allowed me to prolong the fun on my last night, but when I got home, sobered up and realized I was paying 30% interest on that $500, I learned all I need to know about borrowing in a crisis. The administration would be wise to heed that lesson.
Stu,
I bought the same time you did and was cursing out the higher rates at the time so I ended up doing a 7 year ARM for 4% but might consider locking in a 20 year or even 15 now. Who did you use for a broker?
Dan (43) – We used Carl Nielsen of Mortgage Master. He’s done our last few loans for both houses. He’s a real stand up guy. And he gives us kick a*s Devils tickets too!
re: #42 – Buffet made a comment when asked about Moody’s AAA ratings on MBS.
He said “If Moody’s had started to take a negative view on residential real estate, the ratings firm would have been hauled before Congress to testify about why it was hurting the U.S. economy with its bearish ratings.”
I mentioned this yesterday OMERTA.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/09/us-usa-debt-congress-idUSTRE7775UO20110809
The Senate Banking committee has begun looking into last week’s decision by Standard and Poor’s to downgrade the U.S. credit rating, a committee aide told Reuters on Monday.
The aide said the panel was gathering information about the S&P move but no decision had been made on whether it will hold hearings into the downgrade.
While an official investigation has not been launched, the aide said that all options were being weighed.
Dan…
http://www.mortgagemasterinc.com/LoanOfficers-detail.cfm?ID=864&alpha=
Carl Nielson is a straight up guy! He’ll match any other price you’ll find online. What I do is ask him for a number and see if any of the online banks will match it. Usually they can’t. Once they did and Carl matched it. It was about an 1/8th either way. Tell him Stu sent you and I’ll get a free pair of Devils tickets if you close. He’s a season ticket holder and it’s a nice perk. He’ll probably throw a pair your way as well. He will not sell you something that does not work for you. He also set me up with a HELOC (his junior partner did actually) which they made not a penny off of. He gets the Captain Cheapo 5-star recco!
The Devils tickets are sick sweet – $250 face with free food, drink and bathrooms reserved for the section. Between those and The Caesar’s suite at Citi Field last night, Lil Gator is totally ruined for professional sports watching.
Nom – Before you leave the state, just want to make sure you are still available for tax consulting once my office pool wins Power Ball tomorrow.
With all the deserved ripping on Obama, does anyone really think it would have been any better with McCain or Palin or Hilary, etc. The problem is, and I keep repeating the same Mantra, is that they all suck! So why cheerlead for one party over the other. If anything, start spreading the gospel that our government makes decisions based on the which lobby spends the most. It’s a truly pathetic system where everyone gets screwed, except perhaps, the corporate execs and banksters. And there is nothing in the world that can change this except for guns. Which is why I support the right to bear arms. I just didn’t think we’d need them to take down our own government.
#39 That s exactly what I was thinking.
Obama wanted one thing and one thing only out of this Debt Ceiling fiasco…..he wanted this debate off his agenda til after 2012. Once he got that, he caved and went to the BBQ.
Such ducking of the tough issues is the hallmark of his stint as a Community Organizer and of his days in Congress (where is any legislation that he sponsored??).
I swear — another 14 months of his juking and jiving will put this country back to the Stone Age.
Home [42];
My borrowing lesson came when I was getting married. Our savings came up a few hundred short, so I went to my local NationsBank (later gobbled by BoA) branch, where I had built personal relationships, had saved/stored several thousands over two years, and built an impressive credit score considering I was under 30. I applied for a $2k signature loan, knowing it would be paid back in days if not weeks. I was denied for unspecified reasons (though I suspect that liquidating my savings made the loan officer nervous).
I then wrote a $1,500 conveninece check on my Discover card, paid 5% transaction fee for the priviledge. Within a week, I paid off discover in full, and deposited some wedding gifts before leaving for our honeymoon, approximately replenishing savings in full. When I returned, I had a very satisfying meeting with the account manager who denied my loan as I asked her to pull up my balance on her screen before telling her my business was going elsewhere and why.
My lesson learned was to keep myself in positions where they needed me at least as much or more than I needed them.
Libtard,
Does anyone really think it would have been any better with McCain or Palin or Hilary, etc.
Stu, unequivocally yes!! Charlie Sheen would’ve been better than this void with big ears.
Moose…That’s the game that must be played. I bailed on Chase for a business checking account when they wouldn’t refund a BS $15 fee. Before the GR home purchase, I easily averaged $50K in my savings account there and have both lease escrows and about 6 credit cards with them. Fortunately, I got about $200 for opening business checking account so it wasn’t too bad. They already called me to get me back, but I said no dice. Their lucky I keep my free checking with them, buts that only because I have all my bill pays set up with them. I recently opened a savings account with Ally bank online. I get a whopping 1.04% interest and refunds on all ATMs in the world (even international). Will report back in a year or so about how well it goes. So far, so good. I will drop the Chase account as soon as I’m confident Ally is good.
30
I think take what you can get if you have to sell but that’s the thing they don’t have to so the equity will slowly disappear as they wait for the market to come back. The thing is while I was questioning bubble he was making big bucks selling re at the shore telling me bubble what bubble? And still won’t admit anything was wrong with what went on in the bubble years
Gary…I disagree wholeheartedly. Unless you subscribe to the dogma of each individual parties propaganda machines, whether it be Fox or MSNBC, they are all really the same. Bush likes to vacation in Maine and Obama likes to vacation at the barbeque. Both of them had tons of opportunities to do the best thing for the country. Both chose to support the corporate lobbies. Both increased debt well beyond where it should have been and both created destructive health care reform. Quite honestly, the two families probably hang out. Just privately as the sheep must remain fleeced.
re # 56 – The Betway where 3.5 Billion is spent annually on just Lobbbying!
Here is a quote from one frustrated moderate Democratic senator who asked to remain anonymous so he can speak freely about his legislative education. “I’m surprised at how much of our time is spent trying to divide up the spoils between various economic interests. I had no idea. I thought we’d be focused on civil liberties, on education policy, energy policy and so on,” the senator says.
“The fights here can be put in two or three categories: The big greedy bastards against the big greedy bastards; the big greedy bastards against the little greedy bastards; and some cases even the other little greedy bastards against the other little greedy bastards.”
Gary O is soft, both McCain and Hillary are much tougher. I feel like internationally Obama has no respect, we are a laughing stock. The EU is even more eff’d than us and China has many problems yet they are relishing in our “fiscally irresponsible” behavior and chastising us on the world stage. The US should cut foreign aid, crackdown on H1b visas(Where I work we are bringing in people with H1B visas after laying off, most of the laid-off cannot find permanent work) and visa fraud in general, see indian off-shoring companies Infosys, Wipro, Cognizant, TCS, etc all making a mockery of US immigration laws. And go after China for its anti-capitalist practices and dumping, and create programs that provide incentives for American manufacturing. Obama is the poor man’s Jimmy Carter, he is smart(not as smart as Carter), ineffective, focused on all of the wrong things and garners no international respect. Also I think whoever else was in the running for president might have reined in the spending a little more.
(57) juice
Tytler was right.
Bush and Obama have a lot in common, they are both empty suits. As much as that old codger John McCain sold out to get the nomination(Palin, party asskissing), I think he was a lot more likely to do the “right thing” for this country as witnessed by his “sacrifice” in the war, America picked an entitle narcissist who has shown NO self-sacrifice for his country. Yes Stu, most of these politicians will do very bad things as a result of the lobbying but some have a little bit of conscience and wouldn’t sell the country up the river. Bush and O are the same, no conscience, the first Bush I think did the unpopular thing and personally in his career suffered for it but the country was better for it. I don’t think McCain or Hillary would have bungled things as much as O.
re # 59- Yeah however I am still waiting for the next Caesar to arrive, it did not happen with Roosevelt although he did implement quite a few policies via executive order.
Juice in order to be effective, the next president will need to be a cross between FDR and Mussolini, without that kind of assault, what needs to be done will not be done.
Homo [35],
Selling yesterday morning was amateurish, selling SKF before closing and buying FAS, is an all pro move. Holding on to things for 15 years is sooo 80’s and 90’s.
However, market crashes and shiny is up, market rebounds and shiny is up. Grim refuses to buy RE, no problem shiny goes up, grim buys RE and shiny still goes up.
Shiny is the equivalent of RE back in early 2002 when peopel were asking how far can it possibly go. Look shiny to accelerate in the next 30 months.
Discalimer. I sit where I stand.
The reason O is not a serious leader is because he says everything bad that happens is someone else’s fault. That worked in year 1, but eventually people get sick of hearing it. He doesn’t even put his plans down in writing, anymore. He says, I was going to bake the most delicious cake, but they stopped me. What flavor? I wasn’t allowed to progress that far, but it was going to be your favorite. Haven’t most people worked with folks like that sometime? They curry favor with people above them, but unfortunately for O, there’s nobody left above to brownnose but the voter.
Look at all the money spent in the Wisconsin state senate recalls and observe that the situation is getting worse, not better. This debt ceiling debates and the downgrade shows that we have become a nation of finger-pointers.
I don’t blame Obama for the debt downgrade. I will criticize him for showing poor leadership. There were two ways to keep the AAA. There was the truly liberal Obama way where we tax the rich more and show that the nation was serious on increasing revenue or the Tea Party way where we put a scalpel to spending. The half-axxed compromise with nothing being done short-term and all the cuts backloaded into the latest years and basically daring S&P to cut us was a poor choice.
“With all the deserved ripping on Obama, does anyone really think it would have been any better with McCain or Palin or Hilary, etc.”
Mildly different at best. Part of this whole gig is to keep the ship afloat and hope things work themselves out. O or any other candidate who was trying to become POTUS does not want things to implode on their watch, nor would any of you if you were in such a position.
Spending needs to get cut though – it will be ugly and painful but it has to happen. I do find it a bit ironic though that Ethel and Fred, who are just getting by on Social Security may have their benefits cut (or Cola reduced / eliminated) but when a PE firm sells a portfolio company for a big gain and a partner cashes a 7 figure check they pay at cap gains rate vs ordinary income – that to me is not right. Perhaps we don’t need to raise taxes across the board on everyone who is > $250 k but some of the loopholes need to go away.
O is getting beat on because he is the pres and when the team is performing poorly, the coach takes the heat, goes with the territory.
“This debt ceiling debates”
Dan,
Possibly more alarming; nobody broached the subject regarding the floor.
Check the archives, trade of the decade; ceilings get raised while floors are lowered.
What the best way to short treasuries? Faber says its the short of the century at these levels.
there are ETFs that short treasuries. I have been selling all morning every muni I own with a maturity date between 20 and 30 years. I am afraid Ben is going to spook market.
Sold 2030, 2034, 2034, 2035, 2037 bonds, like gold I was way too long for way too long, but the damm things kept paying good interest and principal kept rising. But now I am out of the long and into blue chip. Not crazy but sold 20% of longest bonds and put that 20% in equities, finally I am fearful of some form of inflation, or just something that spooks bond market and it freezes up.
56. Libtard
There is a nihilistic longing coupled with a need to be entertained 24/7. If O or anyone else zigged, the public would zag. There’s no getting around it, people want blood and they will have it regardless of what any administration did, does, doesn’t or won’t do.
JJ 69 (a fitting number for you!) So does Ben send stocks down when he spooks the bonds?
Make [68],
Go to the CME website, 10 year note, and get educated.
I think Ben might send stocks up which may cause people hiding in bond funds to maybe sell to move to stocks or creat inflation fears. I may be wrong, but I entered margin with stock buying last three days and want to see enough bonds to exit margin while selling my longest dated bonds to cut down on duration and interest rate risk.
Speaking of CME that was a good stock to buy if you think the commodity rally still has legs.
Mikeinwaiting says:
August 9, 2011 at 12:29 pm
JJ 69 (a fitting number for you!) So does Ben send stocks down when he spooks the bonds?
(64) west
No one will compare Obama to Truman. ever.
Barbara,
You are absolutely correct. It really doesn’t matter who is in office. If the economy improves, they look good, if it worsens, it’s their fault. All the meanwhile, he is compared to primates, his intelligence is questioned and his vacations are investigated. It’s all the same. Bushs’ Mission Accomplished is Obama’s economic recovery. It’s all the same.
The O man’s problem is everyone at this point knows he’s full of bs because he’s done nothing but spout it for three years. If any of those other clowns had won the Liar In Chief role the average person would be tired of their lies too at this point. Consequently we will get a new Liar In Chief next year. Likely one of those republican gals or mormons with the nice hair. Won’t change anything.
I put odds at 70-30 there’s no QE3 announced today.
Ron Paul will put this nation back on track by making us swallow the medicine needed.
Problem is things must get really bad for him to be elected.
BC,
Thanks.
Question:
If Ben doesn’t do anything besides tell us that he’s prepared to do something and will monitor the situation closely. What’s happens to this rebound?
“I think Ben might send stocks up”
JJ,
And what if Bergabe disappoints? If he does, kiss today’s rally bye-bye. He may require more havoc than fat fingers lite before rolling out QE3.
Ron Paul is like that that thing you’re going to do, definitely, you know the one. As soon as you get the time…..and some money…. you are going to do it. Really. Soon.
Don’t know, that is why I have no buy orders in system and sold some long term bonds this morning.
BC Bob says:
August 9, 2011 at 1:14 pm
“I think Ben might send stocks up”
JJ,
And what if Bergabe disappoints? If he does, kiss today’s rally bye-bye. He may require more havoc than fat fingers lite before rolling out QE3.
#80 BC Would it not be reasonable to think that BB is not going to say anything that will start the markets on a downward path again, And that in fact he is prepared “to backstop everything” just like in 2008??
3b [83],
All the fed can do is manipulate/delay on a short term basis. The market will go where it’s determined with/without Bergabe. All this crap; ceilings, ratings, backstops, wealth effect, etc.., is just noise.
I just need to know if Big Ben is gonna kill today’s dead cat bounce.
Also, if the fed disappoints, today’s high in gold could be a short term top.
#84 BC: Well if he implies no QE 3, than market dumps again. If he indicates QE3, Moody’s/Fitch (IMO) downgrades, and market dumps again.
Keep in mind -there’s no election this November.
“Also, if the fed disappoints, today’s high in gold could be a short term top.”
true dat
this dead cat needs to bounce a lot higher.
Anyone know a cheap place in the Montclair area that does mufflers/exhaust? It’s for old reliable (My 95 Honda Civic Hatchback). Place I wanted to use is on vacation for 2 weeks. Price over quality on this one.
JJ [90];
Uhhh…. don’t look now.
Bernake needs to turn fear into greed period.
They only way out of this is massive greed.
There are two simple solutions to our economy actually. One, make the road significantly longer. Two, kick the can a little more gently.
To be clear we need unprecedented greed that borders on criminally insane, much
more than the Housing Bubble or the Dot Com frenzies.
I just don’t think Bernake has it in him to generate this kind of greed. He really is
not filling Greenspan’s shoes.
Juice,
Might I remind you that it was unprecedented greed that bordered on criminally insane that got us here in the first place. How about you rethink what you are suggesting then try posting again?
I doubt that the solution is more stupidity. My suggestion for a solution to this mess is to “work hard”. There is something that you can do no matter if you are unemployed. The problem is that there are too many people who are not doing anything and instead of trying the bootstrap method they are crying about how they can’t find a job.
Don’t know what the Bergabe statement said but markets no likee.
Wow, heavy storm cell passing over right now. Guess I don’t have to water.
Nicholas – Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results
Fed going full till….
till = tilt
be careful on the negative carry…..it will trash your returns….
make money says:
August 9, 2011 at 12:10 pm
What the best way to short treasuries? Faber says its the short of the century at these levels.
Told you no QE3 today. From a political calculation QE2 got like 9 months stock market appreciation. They’ll wait until around October/November.
It is pouring buckets in the brig. Just saw my recycling trash can wash down the street.
Strong dissent on the Fed’s keeping rates low until at least mid 2013.
Fed Statement via Yahoo Finance:
…a subdued outlook for inflation, are likely to warrant “exceptionally low” levels for the Fed’s key rate through mid-2013
There goes a leading motivation to buy now (intrest rates at “Historic” lows… for a historically long time to come).
HEHE [103];
Told you no QE3 today. From a political calculation QE2 got like 9 months stock market appreciation. They’ll wait until around October/November.
And risk a crash 3 months before the election? No way. When they do it in March ’12 it will be obvious to us and to Wall Street, but not to J6P, which means they will do it with impunity.
Nom [97];
Don’t know what the Bergabe statement said but markets no likee.
He said ‘no more candy, go eat your cake’. Minor tantrum ensued.
Yes Nom. Union is getting bombed too.
[108] moose
Just like talking to my two girls.
And so much for the dead cat bounce. Someone filled the cat corpse with sand.
2.28 crossed the ticker. If we can get below 2.10, I’m refinancing my multi too.
Nom [110];
BTDT(GTTS).
CNBC mentioning that experts claim 10 yr. will go to 1%.
Thank goodness it’s all contained to subprime. :o
re: #105- 3B – hoarding, pathological hoarding
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/current/h3.htm
crazy stuff, mom and pa in the money market or one year cds will get clobered if rates stay low this long.
2.26
FOMC leaves target rate at 0 -.25 until at least mid 2013
sounds like someone should have just bought a five year fdic insured cd in mid 2008 and woke up in 2013. We are just day trading in the interim .
dow:shiny ratio appears to have a 5 handle now. those damn bugs…
Hope you all kept your credit clean enough to refinance. For the first time in about 7 years, it finally feels like the chips are finally falling in my favor. Rents are shooting up too. Sure I overpaid for my Montclair multi, but my payment and time frame for paying it off keeps shrinking. If housing ever does rebound (ever being the keyword), I’ll be sitting very pretty.
105
There was strong dissent on the language, not the idea to leave rates low.
Theater
NJ Transit
Aug 09, 2011 02:43:35 PM
Northeast Corridor and North Jersey Coast Line trains will operate limited service to/from New York this evening, subject to 60-90 minute delays. Some trains will be combined or cancelled this evening. Customers are advised to expect crowding conditions onboard trains.
JJ(117),
What if somone bought a bunch of 5yr swiss franc denominated CD earning 5% back in 2006. After buying dollars back now, question is what the heck do I do with them?
Wild swings after FOMC report
2.17?
10y was as low as 2.03% print
I have a very good credit but I have to bring 20% cash on the closing table to refinance with out buying PMI
Lib (124) – Will we get a better rate when we sign tomorrow? Sub 4%? That would help cover the cost of my new car when your Civic dies.
Of course stocks will rally… because they are traded in dollars. Of course treasury yield will fall… getting paid back in devalued dollars beats not getting paid back at all (nowhere to run, no place to hide).
How much origination on these rates? I just refied and fees and origination on those big advertisers were a joke. Is anyone actually getting the good faith estimates or are you just going by the finance pages?
Also, refi on a multi investment property is always a higher rate.
Barb – The guy that we use is always to the penny on good faith estimates.
not quite a no fly zone over 55 water, but close enough.
Someone paid for an airplane to fly by the New York City offices of Standard & Poor’s with a banner screaming: “THANKS FOR THE DOWNGRADE. YOU SHOULD ALL BE FIRED.” Pictures and more sightings are beginning to emerge. Full image below:
http://www.observer.com/2011/08/airplane-flying-banner-by-s-p-offices-thanks-for-the-downgrade-you-should-all-be-fired/
So the FED announces no QE3 but they are going to reinvest dividends and keep interest rates low until at least mid-2013.
I’m not sure how this is good news for the markets, this should and could be very ill news for the markets. Those watching believe that we will be going through an extended rough patch in the economy. If you are a buisness hanging on trying to make things work and looking for an upturn in the economy to save your struggling buisness this is the type of news that makes you fold up shop. I hope you have it in you to survive another two harrowing years in your money losing buisness.
I don’t see this as good news at all. I see this as a very bad omen.
Barb (130) – We are refinancing the new house, not the multi…yet. Another quarter point and we can refinance the multi.
Con’t [128];
ZIRP: http://youtu.be/gEmJ-VWPDM4
NJGator, how much in fees and origination?
You must find a reputable mortgage broker. If there is such a thing. We are pretty sure we have one.
The Fed has boxed themselves in until at least the middle of 2013. IMO they have telegraphed not just to Wall St, but the economy at large, that things are not getting better any time soon. IMO this will not generate any confidence on the part of employers to hire, or consumers to spend.
Same old line the fed has been saying after QE2
Lib, Mufflers – but not in the peoples republic
Bernies Auto Sales / Repair in Millburn / Maplewood
Carnevale’s Gulf Service Center – Livingston
Friends have used both regularly and swear by the quality and price.
Re: S&P’s $2 Trillion Mistake —
What is this on the Treasury’s Home Page ?!?!
“In fact, S&P’s $2 trillion mistake led to a very misleading picture of debt sustainability – the foundation for their initial judgment. This mistake undermined the economic justification for S&P’s credit rating decision. Yet after acknowledging their mistake, S&P simply removed a prominent discussion of the economic justification from their document.
In their initial, incorrect estimates, S&P projected that the debt as a share of GDP would rise rapidly through the middle of the decade, and they cited this as a primary reason for a downgrade.”
http://www.treasury.gov/connect/blog/Pages/Just-the-Facts-SPs-2-Trillion-Mistake.aspx
These Ratings Agencies can be trusted for anything.
Barb, We are closing on Thursday morning. Will get the final number then. I was told no-cost which means no fees (although, as you know, the fees are wrapped into the slightly higher APR).
#33 Nicholas: Agreed see my post at #38. How can you talk about a soft patch, s soft patch for another 2 years, from a recession that we supposedly exited 2 years ago?
#39 The Fed has never put a time frame on it before.
NJToast. Those are expensive towns, I’ll get a price and will let you know. Heard good things about Carneville.
3b [138],
I agree. Very negative [economy] statement.
Hey, did the Fed just tell all prospective US housing buyers that they can take their time house hunting for the next two years and not worry about mortgage rates going up?
The debt just keep on growing with all the money pouring into treasuries.And China is screaming live with in your means while buying treasuries
#47 Good one I had not thought about that.
NJX [147];
Yes. Yes, they did [106].
I think I’ll hold off refinancing until our 10 year is below Japan’s now that we are following in their footsteps……
Lib,
Friends who use Carneville have TV’s w no remotes – they may be cheaper than you (sorry). Let me know what you find.
I’m waiting for the estimate as we type.
http://www.csmonitor.com/var/ezflow_site/storage/images/media/images/cartoon-images/2011/08/cartoon110809/10588562-1-eng-US/cartoon110809_full_600x400.jpg
Holy sh_t! Am I seeing a 2.18 on the 10 year?
151.
Dan,
Those exact thoughts have crossed my mind.
Rally at the finish line
I see more accusations today along the lines that unemployment is the unemployeds’ fault. It is true that there are things that individuals can do to make it more likely that they’ll be the one to get a job instead of the other applicants. However, it’s still the case that for each job, there’s multiple applicants and only one “winner” is possible.
Here’s a recent writeup that puts things into perspective pretty well:
“Job growth still sputtering in lowest gear”
“This morning’s release of the Employment Situation report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the addition of 117,000 jobs in July, a rate of job growth that keeps us firmly in low gear and still very much on track for persistent high unemployment. Notably, the decline in the unemployment rate from 9.2% to 9.1% was entirely due to a drop in labor force participation, not an increase in the share of workers with jobs.
Both labor force participation and employment-to-population ratio hit bottom
The labor force participation rate declined to 63.9% in July, its new low of the downturn. Remarkably, the labor force is smaller than it was before the recession started (by more than 700,000 workers), though the working-age population grew by over seven million in that time. There are currently 2.8 million “marginally attached” workers—workers who want a job, are available to work, but have given up actively seeking work. If these workers were in the labor force and counted as unemployed, the unemployment rate would be 10.7% right now instead of 9.1%.”
…..
Conclusion
The labor market is currently 6.8 million payroll jobs below where it was at the official start of the recession over three and a half years ago, and this number vastly understates the size of the gap in the labor market by failing to take into account the fact that simply keeping up with the growth in the working-age population would have required the addition of 4.3 million jobs over this period. This means the labor market is now 11.1 million jobs below the level needed to restore the prerecession unemployment rate (5.0% in December 2007). To get back to the pre-recession unemployment rate by the middle of 2014, we would need to add roughly 400,000 jobs every single month between now and then. In other words, we need job to grow more than three times as fast as occurred in July just to make it back to the pre-recession unemployment rate three years from now.”
…
http://www.epi.org/publications/entry/job_growth_still_sputtering_in_lowest_gear/
So to get back to where we were in 2007, we’d need to create 400,000 jobs every month from now until mid-2014. Clearly we are in the middle of unemployment crisis that’s far beyond the scope of the politically powerless unemployed to solve by themselves.
What a monster no volume rally:)
#158
Companies are not hiring can not find the right candidate
It is true most unemployed people it is their own fault. They are over 40, fat, ugly, stupid, have criminal records and undereducated. There I said it, nah nah nah. Ever walk around towns like Newark in the high unemployed areas, pretty much I just described nearly every unemployed person.
Who is stopping the monster rally with DOW
Anyone see rates for 30 year conforming, 0 fees below 4.25 please let me know.
Lib/Stu [137];
You must find a reputable mortgage broker. If there is such a thing. We are pretty sure we have one.
I will preface this by saying that I have noted your guy’s contact info. He may be reputable, meaning he hasn’t screwed you… That alone doesn’t make me confident that he won’t try to screw me.
BTW, I’m a Rangers fan… can I request that game, or just get a fee discount?
Our stock markets are glorious. A 625 point jump in the dow in about 80 minutes. What a joke. Uncle Ben has confirmed ZIRP forever. BTFD!
Do must people on this site have a mortgage or something? I really never hear anyone at work ever talking about mortgages.
Now for a complete change of pace. For those who are interested, here’s links to two blogs covering the UK riots.
[Police] Inspector Gadget’s blog is evidently fairly well known by his colleagues and the public and he’s getting hundreds of comments and updates from all kinds of law enforcement personnel about what’s going on. The comments are an addictive combination of venting frustrations, wishing good luck to brother officers and providing fascinating details. A few of the comments will sound remarkably familiar to readers of this blog:
“Voortrekker
“Like the Roman, I seem to see ‘the River Tiber foaming with much blood’. That tragic and intractable phenomenon which we watch with horror on the other side of the Atlantic but which there is interwoven with the history and existence of the States itself, is coming upon us here by our own volition and our own neglect. Indeed, it has all but come. In numerical terms, it will be of American proportions long before the end of the century.
Only resolute and urgent action will avert it even now. Whether there will be the public will to demand and obtain that action, I do not know. All I know is that to see, and not to speak, would be the great betrayal.”
http://inspectorgadget.wordpress.com/
***************
And here’s a little something from the blog of a London-area magistrate:
“Afraid Not
David Cameron is quoted:
He told rioters: “You will feel the full force of the law. And if you are old enough to commit these crimes, you are old enough to face the punishment.”
Unfortunately, that is not how the youth justice system works. The under-18s won’t be hit very hard and the under-16s are more or less bulletproof so long as their offences aren’t too far up the scale.”
http://thelawwestofealingbroadway.blogspot.com/
How much was short covering and how much was buying the news? How long will the bounce last?
Answer me JJ!
158 – Yo’me
Do you really believe that?
How were they able to find the right candidates when unemployment was 5% then?
Could it be because didn’t have a list of 20 “must-haves” back then like they do now?
Could it be that if there really was competition, they’d up their salary offer a bit?
If the unemployed are becoming unemployable, we’d better start offering a lot more free job training than we are now. Of course we’d have to decide what jobs will be in demand. As far as I can tell, no one seems to know what good paying job fields will require lots more workers in the near future.
#68 I think there will be a tug of war for some days possibly weeks before the dust settles on this. The markets get another (this time guranteed) extension of money, but yet the message telegraphed to the economy at large is things are not getting better. Therefore IMO those considering hiring may not , and those employers who were considering restoring or increasing salaries may not as well.
I’m not JJ but here is my impression. There really wasn’t a stated timeline from the FED and them announcing that they are going to keep interest rates low until mid-2013 or longer is really an eye opener for those with cheap access to credit markets.
This means it is a buying opportunity for those who operate on cheap credit as they now don’t see any risk from increased borrowing costs.
I think that it is a massive policy mistake to tip your economic policy hand and eventually will result in harsh economic consequences. I will not buy a house now because I know that interest rates will remain low and I can always get a cheaper house tomorrow. This will cause the RE industry to languish, one of the poorest performing parts of our economy. This will also erode the resolve of buisness owners who have made it through a few tough years already and are now struggling with the news that it will be a few more years before the all clear signal. This will cause capitulation and it will be swift.
Expect a rough election year in 2012 as a lot of incumbents get thrown out of office.
Dow Component
BAC/quotes/nls/bac 7.60 +1.09 +16.74%
Financial stocks regain ground post-FOMC – 30 min ago3:57 p.m. Aug. 9, 2011
AA/quotes/nls/aa 12.23 +0.90 +7.94%
U.S. stocks clobbered; Dow off 513 points – Aug. 4, 2011
AXP/quotes/nls/axp 46.13 +3.09 +7.18%
Financial stocks regain ground post-FOMC – 30 min ago3:57 p.m. Aug. 9, 2011
JPM/quotes/nls/jpm 36.40 +2.34 +6.87%
Financial stocks regain ground post-FOMC – 30 min ago3:57 p.m. Aug. 9, 2011
TRV/quotes/nls/trv 51.69 +3.11 +6.40%
Financial stocks regain ground post-FOMC – 30 min ago3:57 p.m. Aug. 9, 2011
BA/quotes/nls/ba 62.34 +3.63 +6.18%
Rockwell Collins raised to buy after shares drop – 2:22 p.m. 2:22 p.m. Aug. 9, 2011
DD/quotes/nls/dd 46.74 +2.68 +6.08%
3M, Kraft, Chevron leading Dow gains – Aug. 5, 2011
CAT/quotes/nls/cat 87.37 +4.77 +5.77%
Caterpillar, IBM McDonald’s weigh on Dow – Aug. 5, 2011
PFE/quotes/nls/pfe 17.60 +0.94 +5.64%
Pfizer added to Goldman’s conviction buy list – 8:44 a.m. 8:44 a.m. Aug. 9, 2011
MMM/quotes/nls/mmm 82.69 +4.10 +5.22%
DIS/quotes/nls/dis 34.70 +1.67 +5.06%
Disney profit rises 11% on ESPN, theme parks – 5 min ago4:22 p.m. Aug. 9, 2011
MCD/quotes/nls/mcd 86.03 +3.92 +4.77%
McDonald’s upgraded to buy; shares rise 1.5% – 9:02 a.m. 9:02 a.m. Aug. 9, 2011
MSFT/quotes/nls/msft 25.58 +1.10 +4.49%
T/quotes/nls/t 28.90 +1.20 +4.33%
MRK/quotes/nls/mrk 31.22 +1.28 +4.28%
Merck gets DOJ subpoena on drug marketing – Aug. 8, 2011
HD/quotes/nls/hd 30.15 +1.22 +4.22%
Ties to economy raise concerns on U.S. retailers – 2:47 p.m. 2:47 p.m. Aug. 9, 2011
WMT/quotes/nls/wmt 50.82 +1.90 +3.88%
Ties to economy raise concerns on U.S. retailers – 2:47 p.m. 2:47 p.m. Aug. 9, 2011
VZ/quotes/nls/vz 34.29 +1.17 +3.53%
CVX/quotes/nls/cvx 93.40 +3.15 +3.49%
Exxon, Chevron plunge in energy-sector swoon – Aug. 8, 2011
GE/quotes/nls/ge 15.96 +0.53 +3.43%
IBM/quotes/nls/ibm 171.02 +4.80 +2.89%
Techs trim gains as Cisco retreats – 3:19 p.m. 3:19 p.m. Aug. 9, 2011
UTX/quotes/nls/utx 71.57 +1.83 +2.62%
[UTX] Goldman cuts United Technologies to neutral – 7:42 a.m. 7:42 a.m. Aug. 9, 2011
KO/quotes/nls/ko 66.81 +1.69 +2.60%
Coca-Cola Amatil to close factory, cut 150 jobs – Aug. 8, 2011
INTC/quotes/nls/intc 20.60 +0.49 +2.44%
HPQ/quotes/nls/hpq 31.53 +0.72 +2.34%
XOM/quotes/nls/xom 71.64 +1.45 +2.07%
JNJ/quotes/nls/jnj 62.20 +1.08 +1.77%
PG/quotes/nls/pg 60.22 +0.93 +1.57%
KFT/quotes/nls/kft 34.22 +0.51 +1.51%
CSCO/quotes/nls/csco 14.06 +0.12 +0.82%
RE: 91 Lib,
I know a mechanic at Tony’s Mufflers on 9 Locust Avenue in Wallington, NJ. Ask for John or mention you were recommended to him by one of his friends. Good work done at an hourly rate of $50 (last I remember), which is below the standard 75-85 charged elsewhere.
lot of buy programs kicked in. I won’t know till tommorrow. I bought around 100K worth of stock in last three trading days. Sold 70K worth of Munis and 30K of Total Return Fund to do it. I rarely buy stock, but I was 101% long bonds and it has been a very long bond rally. Would like to get to 50/50 bond/stocks. Mainly getting ride of all bonds over 15 years and buying assorted blue chips with good yields. If enough people think like me the bear market will not be long lived. But if ten year treasuries are paying 2.5% and blue chip stocks have dividends of 5% and you are holding ten years it does not make sense at these low treasury rates to stay in bonds other than enough for a safety net.
I seen an interview of a CEO of one of the big firms.He would like to keep his R&D in the US but having difficulty finding the top notch Chemist and have to keep it in China.His point is education in the US have degraded compare to other countries.I heard one Senator wants to open Immigration to Immigrants with science background to prevent companies doing the same.
My opinion is if a CEO tells you he can not find the right candidate and a Senator tells you to open the border to science Immigrant,there is a problem with education and knowledge.
BAC top winner of the day
yo’me.
All it tells me is that the CEO wants wider profit margins and he and contributes heavily to the Senator’s campaign.
#72 Totally Agree.
BAC Trups and Perfs also rocked the house!!! I had my finger on trigger of AXP and HIG but I got all nancy boy instead of gangsta.
yo’me says:
August 9, 2011 at 4:51 pm
BAC top winner of the day
I 100% support full opening our border to science and tech people of a high caliber, we need them here. It is H1b that needs to go, we don’t need access to cheap luke warm bodies if you know what I mean. But on the other hand yo’me the higher education system in the US is still vastly superior to that of India(in my experience), their best and brightest still come here to be educated, and their lower tier schools(Outside of IIT and it’s ilk which are very good schools) are a lot worse than our state schools, most of their university system is comprised of schools slightly better than a bad community college.
Anecdote for today-
I was speaking to commercial architect friend today , says business is
“BOOMING” very busy designing large new office buildings for many large
corporations. Large corporations making huge capital investments?
I was confused…. so I dug a little deeper…. turns out ALL of these projects
are a result of downsizing to a single facility. These companies are closing
five or six locations in exchange for one nice/ new facility.
Talk about the snake eating it tail!
OMERTA just like those pesky accountants with their mark to market fantasies.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — As observers call for a probe of insider trading from Standard & Poor’s decision to downgrade the U.S. credit rating, a little-known law from five years ago gives the Securities and Exchange Commission authority to do so.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/law-from-2006-gives-sec-scope-to-probe-sp-2011-08-09?dist=afterbell
Barbara [178];
+1
There is always one question that shuts down business’ complaints about not being able to hire the quantity/quality of workers they need – “Have you tried offering more money?” Whenever a businessman says ‘We can’t find the workers we need…’ always left unsaid is “…at the wages we’re willing to pay.” This isn’t rocket science. Adam Smith was a bright guy, but he figured it out in the 1700’s, and we’ve just been riding his coattails since then.
I understand the yield argument but I don’t see how we avoid a recession at this point and that means stocks might have a lot further south to go from here so I will wait with what little play money I have for a cheaper time to buy. That move up today didn’t seemed too knee jerk.
Seemed too knee jerk.
Barbara[178], agreed most firms pay their salesmen better than they pay their scientists and engineers. I know one thing for sure, most Indian IT outsourcing outfits are violating a litany of US immigration laws, why should this be allowed when unemployment is high? The WIPRO’s and Infosys’s of this world don’t deserve any favors from the US government and should be kicked out, if the tables were turned India would ban an American firm from doing business on their soil.
Also laws should go into effect that penalize the clients of these outsourcing outfits, if consultants are working here illegally at the client site. Just my 2 cents, but we need to tighten things up to keep Americans working.
just got back to a computer after meetings and calls for the past 2 hours and WTF?
Did Ben let the PPT use the Fed’s helicopters to land on the Street? Now THAT’S a dead cat bounce.
Down at least 150 on the dow tomorrow though.
Here are 3 of the new dictators in Super Congress.
“Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., will appoint Democratic Sens. Patty Murray of Washington, Max Baucus of Montana, and John Kerry of Massachusetts to the new super committee tasked with finding $1.2 trillion in additional deficit reduction by November 23, according to a senior Democratic aide familiar with Reid’s decision, which is expected to be made public as early as Wednesday.”
http://www.nationaljournal.com//congress/source-democrats-murray-baucus-kerry-on-super-committee-20110809
#90 I thought they were supposed to be done by Thanksgiving??
Loading up on discount TruPS trading to the fuking call……I locked in something that I’m betting is a 50% upside with a 9.5% yield to call…..
JJ says:
August 9, 2011 at 4:57 pm
BAC Trups and Perfs also rocked the house!!! I had my finger on trigger of AXP and HIG but I got all nancy boy instead of gangsta.
yo’me says:
August 9, 2011 at 4:51 pm
BAC top winner of the day
jj (69)-
Did you bang Meredith Whitney this morning?
“…there are ETFs that short treasuries. I have been selling all morning every muni I own with a maturity date between 20 and 30 years. I am afraid Ben is going to spook market.
Sold 2030, 2034, 2034, 2035, 2037 bonds, like gold I was way too long for way too long, but the damm things kept paying good interest and principal kept rising. But now I am out of the long and into blue chip. Not crazy but sold 20% of longest bonds and put that 20% in equities, finally I am fearful of some form of inflation, or just something that spooks bond market and it freezes up.”
make (78)-
If things get really hairy, Ron Paul will meet a mysterious and untimely demise. We are too soft, corrupt and lost as a nation to acknowledge a problem and tackle it head on.
I think being in that sort of shape ought to be one of the items on the “Is My Country a Third World Nation?” checklist.
“Ron Paul will put this nation back on track by making us swallow the medicine needed.
Problem is things must get really bad for him to be elected.”
jj (115)-
One of the primary goals of US monetary policy is to destroy the elderly/savers.
Only reward goes to risk-on, balls-out, ultra-leveraged traders. Never forget that debt = money.
Nicholas (133)-
Turn out the lights, the party’s over.
Rented out my building at a small loss, walked back into my old line of work. I’ll be in that (and thank goodness it’s fun, interesting and decently profitable) until they plant me.
Real Estate is dead money for at least a generation. With some luck, you might see a modest, sustainable housing rally within the next 50 years.
If you have your health, decent work, a roof over your head and your kids in good shape, you have everything.
Beyond that, any good stuff that accrues to you is pure luxury. That’s the way depressions work.
And, we’re in a depression.
yo (176)-
We should tear down the border fences. Look at how well the Mexican quants have take over Wall St.
3b (191)-
The only things that will be done by Thanksgiving will be us.
Meat [197, 198];
Turn out the lights, the party’s over.
Rented out my building at a small loss, walked back into my old line of work. I’ll be in that (and thank goodness it’s fun, interesting and decently profitable) until they plant me.
What kind of business took your space? “Old line of work”? Selling liquor qualifies a person to go into selling real estate? Hmmm…
Real Estate is dead money for at least a generation. With some luck, you might see a modest, sustainable housing rally within the next 50 years.
If you have your health, decent work, a roof over your head and your kids in good shape, you have everything.
Beyond that, any good stuff that accrues to you is pure luxury. That’s the way depressions work.
And, we’re in a depression.
Categorically agree.
What to expect..its long time to 2013 to get house prices on track. We have yet another bad news on US economy this August 2012. However Obama saved US from getting bankrupt but as the stock markets trumbling and the same we are seeing in worldwide stock market it’s showing a sign of major economic disaster which will much more than that was 3 years back.
Very interesting entry, I look forward to the next! Thx for share