A look at Q2 home prices

From the Record:

Home prices flat in North Jersey, National Association of Realtors says

North Jersey home prices were flat in the second quarter, compared with a year earlier, the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday. But a number of local real estate agents say they believe prices are declining.

According to the NAR, single-family homes in the New York metropolitan area, which includes North Jersey, sold for a median $448,700 in the second quarter of 2011, up 1.2 percent from a year earlier. At the same time, however, the number of house and condo sales in New Jersey fell 23.9 percent from the second quarter of 2010, when the market was pumped up by an $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time home buyers.

Nationally, home sales were down 12.7 percent and prices dropped 2.8 percent from the second quarter of 2010 to the second quarter of 2011.

“Prices are under pressure, since the buyers are all searching for a bargain,” said Carolee Chirico of ERA Douglass Realtors in Montvale. “I believe they’re afraid to overpay in a market that may continue to decline.”

“We have seen the prices in Passaic County fall fast and far,” said John Susani of Coldwell Banker Susani Realty in Paterson. “Some areas, like Paterson, are being hit harder because of higher taxes and higher unemployment in urban areas. Interest rates are lower, and still no buyers. We still have foreclosures and short sales, which need to sell before we are back to normal.”

Johnny Rojas of Century 21 JR Gold Team Realty in Garfield said well over half of the sales North Jersey’s urban neighborhoods are distressed sales, such as bank-owned properties. Those sales tend to sell at a discount of 20 percent or more to market values.

More affluent towns have fared better, said Michael Machinski, a Weichert agent in Ridgewood. He said that Ridgewood, where many residents take the commuter train to jobs in financial services, has seen “slight increases in prices.”

“The blue-collar towns, in particular those with no direct train line to New York, are still seeing price declines,” Machinski said.

Antoinette Gangi, a Re/Max agent in Woodcliff Lake, said a home in Hillsdale that recently went on the market at $699,000 drew about eight offers in a day and went under contract for more than the asking price. The home, she said, would have been priced at $850,000 at the peak of the housing boom.

“Sellers have finally accepted that you must price homes to sell,” Gangi said.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

187 Responses to A look at Q2 home prices

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New jersey

  2. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Legal concerns slowing foreclosures in N.J.

    Foreclosure activity in New Jersey plummeted more than 80 percent from July 2010 to July 2011, RealtyTrac reported Wednesday. The drop reflects a continuing near-freeze in activity because of concerns that lenders and mortgage servicers have not followed legal procedures in their efforts to take back properties after homeowners failed to pay the mortgage.

    RealtyTrac, which follows the foreclosure market nationwide, also said that foreclosure activity in the U.S. dropped by about 35 percent over the year. Concerns over faulty legal practices first surfaced last fall.

    “Unfortunately, the falloff in foreclosures is not based on a robust recovery in the housing market, but on short-term interventions and delays that will extend the current housing market woes into 2012 and beyond,” said RealtyTrac CEO James J. Saccacio. “A stabilizing economy and improving job market are the long-term keys to a housing market recovery.”

  3. grim says:

    From the Courier Post:

    S.J. job losses reflect trend

    In a span of only a few months, three large manufacturers in South Jersey announced they would shut down, shedding more than 500 jobs and leaving almost 1 million square feet of factory space idle.

    It is, in part, a reflection of a sharp decline in consumer spending.

    But the closures also are part of a trend toward companies growing still leaner and meaner, jettisoning property and personnel to cut costs.

    “People are buying less, so manufacturers are not producing as much,” says Philip Kirschner, CEO of the New Jersey Business and Industry Association, a Trenton-based trade group representing 22,000 state businesses. “We also know that companies are looking for cheaper places to operate and in New Jersey real estate and labor are more expensive.”

  4. grim says:

    From the APP:

    Home price decline slows

    The prices of existing homes in Central New Jersey declined at a slower pace during the second quarter in a sign that the housing market was ready to stabilize, according to a report released Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors.

    The momentum, however, might have hit a wall, particularly if the bitter debt-ceiling debate and the downgrade of U.S. credit by Standard & Poor’s saps consumers of their confidence, experts said.

    “What we’re likely to see here is that the momentum that we experienced in the housing market in May and June will likely recede back to what we saw in the first quarter, which tells us price declines will continue into next year,” said Jeffrey Otteau, president of the Otteau Valuation Group, a research and consulting firm in East Brunswick.

    The report showed that the median price of an existing single-family home in the region that includes Monmouth, Ocean, Middlesex and Somerset counties was at $328,600 in the second quarter, down from $346,300, or 5.1 percent, during the same quarter a year ago. By comparison, prices in the first quarter fell by 6.9 percent from a year ago.

    The median price in the region that includes Morris, Hunterdon and Union counties was $374,900, down from $387,400, or 3.2 percent, from the same quarter last year. By comparison, prices in the first quarter rose 1.2 percent from a year ago, according to the Realtors’ group.

    And the median price in the region that includes Camden, Burlington and Gloucester counties was $215,100, down from $223,200, or 3.6 percent, the same quarter a year ago. By comparison, prices in the first quarter were down 5.1 percent from last year, the Realtors association said.

  5. freedy says:

    whats the opening line on next springs selling season ? will Bergen hold up ?

  6. gary says:

    Antoinette Gangi, a Re/Max agent in Woodcliff Lake, said a home in Hillsdale that recently went on the market at $699,000 drew about eight offers in a day and went under contract for more than the asking price. The home, she said, would have been priced at $850,000 at the peak of the housing boom.

    Fast forward to 2013:

    Antoinette Gangi, a Re/Max agent in Woodcliff Lake, said a home in Hillsdale that recently went on the market at $569,000 drew about eight offers in a day and went under contract for more than the asking price. The home, she said, would have been priced at $850,000 at the peak of the housing boom.

    Any questions?

  7. freedy says:

    must be a misunderstanding its Bergen County Hillsdale is an upscale town, not to
    many mexicans around yet only at the bus stops

  8. gary says:

    The realtor stated that at peak, the price would’ve been 850K. We had to buy now because we’d be priced out forever. Remember that scenario?

    Five years later, it was at 699K. It’s a screaming bargain. Right? Compared to what? In a few more years, the list price is down to 569K. It’ll never happen, right?

    Just like Bernanke said he’s not touching the lending rate for at least 2 years. Gee… I wonder why? :o

    That house cannot possibly go as low as 500K, could it?

    tick… tick… tick… tick…

  9. gary says:

    More affluent towns have fared better, said Michael Machinski, a Weichert agent in Ridgewood. He said that Ridgewood, where many residents take the commuter train to jobs in financial services, has seen “slight increases in prices.”

    Just like there’s a “slight decrease in the job market.”

  10. gary says:

    No asset fails to revert to the mean… ever. That house at 699K may very well go in the mid 400s a few years from now:

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/2011-Case-SHiller-updated.png

  11. Mike says:

    No. 3 500 jobs shed Dam that’s scary

  12. BC Bob says:

    Gary [10],

    Every great bubble, that has burst, not only reverted to the mean, it also overshot to the downside. The RE bubble has to be characterized as one the the greatest bubbles in history. Whether it was tulip bulbs, dot com or nikkei, capital/margin was required. The RE bubble only required a signature.

    20-25% off peak is a mere correction. If this is the extent of the decline, this will be the first time in history that a bubble has simply corrected; not revert to the mean. I’ll place my bets with history. Then again, it could truly be different this time.

  13. Confused In NJ says:

    Ben’s coming out guns a blazing today. Nobody messes with his personal market.

  14. make money says:

    Then again, it could truly be different this time.

    BC,
    Yeah…we may have a “sof landing”. BTW, I think I’m changing my handle to Mr. T. That’s what Tutti introduced me last night to some shmuck hedge fund guy. It actually made my feel good and I liked it. Much better than being called a insect.

  15. gary says:

    BC Bob,

    There’s no deviation in the realm of physics; the outcome is inevitable.

  16. JJ says:

    My favorite realtor quote was shortly after 9/11 when an estate sale house was up for a quick sale and was priced low. She said I guarantee you, this will be the last single family home ever sold in this town for under 300K.

    Ten years later in 2011 the lowest priced home in my town is 185K.

    More intersting upscale homes are getting hit with a one two punch, ower conforming limits and a combo stock market crash/recession. Going into winter selling season to boot.

  17. livinginpa says:

    Well, maybe some sellers are “finally realizing they have to price to sell”, but that’s not so where I am. Honestly, it’s mind blowing how many sellers in a very specific area that we are targeting just keep saying, “but my neighbor sold in 2006 for 500k more”. um, hello? That was SIX years ago! I don’t understand why these mostly empty nesters don’t take what equity they have and run. One guy actually tried to get us to bid 250k more and said “all markets turn” you’ll make it back. huh?

  18. The Original NJ Expat says:

    James Grant on CNBC a couple minutes ago made Liesman appear to be double the retarded Fed schill he usually is.

  19. 3b says:

    #7 freedy: Big school funding fight too with Woodcliff Lake & Montvale, they send less kids than Hillsdale, but pay more. This is the same fight in River Edge & Oradell.

  20. 3b says:

    #9 gary: If I was talking to Mike, I would ask him why there are so many houses for sale in town. I know it is a big town, but last time I checked there was over 140 houses for sale. Just saying.

  21. Juice Box says:

    Abby Joseph Cohen on Bloomberg this morning, they gave her an entire half hour.

    Why in the world would they trot out someone with such a horrible record and how the heck does she even still have a job at GS? Don’t they do some kind of culling ever year?

  22. 3b says:

    #9 gary So the Realtor says a train town is holding up better than non-train towns. So one could argue than that Hillsdale is holing up better than Wyckoff?? And since it is supposedly holding up better, than it mus be a better town, right? I know a few people in Wyckoff who would have a problem with that interpretation.

  23. Juice Box says:

    re # 9 – “residents take the commuter train to jobs in financial service”

    Err there have been loads and loads of WS layoffs, check the Coffee shops in Ridgewood in the morning, they are packed with lots of middle aged former WS workers who will never need to take the train to Hoboken again.

  24. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Freedy 15 At least we are not importing people with a religion ( corrupted by extremist) dedicated to the down fall of the USA. Roman Catholics & Muslim terrorist don’t mix well, no. You are not going to hide any sleeper cell in these communities.

  25. 3b says:

    #14 BC Then again, it could truly be different this time.

    It could be different, it could be worse.

  26. Thundaar says:

    Texas bank frustrated by fed regulators calls it quits.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904480904576498442951766826.html

  27. 3b says:

    #27 Juice; That might explain al the houses for sale. Realtors live in their own worlds like a lot of other on non Wall Street people, when it comes to discussing the street; they know litttle to nothing.

  28. gary says:

    3b/Juice Box,

    Classic, isn’t it? Can you picture these realtors in Ridgewood trying to convince would-be buyers using the key words like “prestigious” and “desirable?” I’ve been in the IT end of financial services for 15 years now. The IT departments are gone and the “services” are currently ramping up the outsourcing machine as well. The 175K base with bonus and benefits is done. Deal with it. I’m praying that this job that I’m starting next week will go permanent in six months at ANY salary.

    The issue is not income any longer, it is the ability to go somewhere in the morning and hope the doors are open the following week. Wait… it will get worse. Towns like Ridgewood, Glen Rock, etc. are going to be a shell of their former selves. That bargain you closed on today will be an anchor in a few short years from now.

  29. JC says:

    Mike #28: We don’t have to. We already have them here, they are called “Christian Reconstructionists” and Michele Bachmann is one of them. Why they hate the Taliban is a mystery, they are just like them.

  30. 3b says:

    UE Claims down slightly (only to be revised up next week), but futures do not care.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/weekly-jobless-claims-drop-7000-to-395000-2011-08-11?dist=beforebell

  31. JJ says:

    Plus even if you turn off the sound you have to look at her ugly mug.

    Juice Box says:
    August 11, 2011 at 8:40 am
    Abby Joseph Cohen on Bloomberg this morning, they gave her an entire half hour.

    Why in the world would they trot out someone with such a horrible record and how the heck does she even still have a job at GS? Don’t they do some kind of culling ever year?

  32. gary says:

    The best thing for the economy right now would be if Oblama resigns. I know we’d be left with Biden but at least we know what we’d have with him. Every time the Whiner in the Whitehouse opens his mouth, Americans become more dejected and disheartened. His message is so hollow and vapid that anyone or anything would be an improvement. How ironic is that we’re all now wishing for hope and change at the expense of the Annointed One.

  33. Mikeinwaiting says:

    JC 33 Not the R.C. branch of Catholicism, so the point remains. My point was not political & they are not” just like them” IMO. No need to debate from the tenor off your post you will not change your view & neither will I.

  34. Juice Box says:

    re #33 – JC even been to Minnesota or Wisconsin? If you have I gather you spent your time with your head up your arse.

  35. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Thundaar 30 Just what we need more of loans to the little guy in business, Feds want to regulate them out of it A holes . Bully for them, close up bank continue to do it.

  36. Mikeinwaiting says:

    JC, Juice seems to be inclined to take you to task on that statement……….

  37. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    I keep waiting for a gold pull-back but I don’t think it is going to happen unless it is from much higher levels.

  38. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    What does banning short sales do other than remove a floor from the market?

  39. Mikeinwaiting says:

    3b It is all bull, the real issue:
    U.S. Employment-Population Ratio Hits New Low: Why It Matters for the Budget Debate

    By and large, U.S. media have spun the July employment report as more positive than negative. The 117,000 new payroll jobs created last month and the upward revisions for May and June were a relief after two months of very bad data. The downtick in the unemployment rate, although slight, was also welcome. One indicator that rarely makes the headlines told a different story, however. The employment-population ratio fell to a new low of 58.1 percent. What does it mean? Why should we care?

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/285851-u-s-employment-population-ratio-hits-new-low-why-it-matters-for-the-budget-debate

  40. 3b says:

    #43 I do not ever recall seeing that topic discussed in the main stream media.

  41. Mikeinwaiting says:

    44 & nor will you.

  42. Juice Box says:

    re #40 -Mike – comparing any American to the Taliban, as if the Taliban would let a woman vote or even hold a job or run for higher office? That kind of vitrol is why Kerry lost to Bush II, people like JC are still harboring anger over it. JC check the voting record Minnesota and Wisconsin. They voted in O and they voted for Kerry they don’t swing far right are well educated (best in the Nation perhaps) and just because a small minority of them voted in Michelle does not mean she has wide spread support at home. Bachmann is getting traction because the Media powers that be want to marginalize the other candidates. She is getting way more press than she deserves, hopefully Americans will wake up and realize she is a Stalking Horse Patsy who is going to make room for Romney.

  43. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Check out the charts in my 43 folks, very telling. Do not necessarily agree with author , rather some good data in there.

  44. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Juice 46 Agreed.

  45. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    JJ,

    I appreciated your comments this week, but I am liking my NLY add so far. Up, and insiders buying like crazy.

    This weekend, my BIL, a successful guy, raved about SODA. He did his homework and got in early. He explained the risks but saw more upside and said I should buy. I was skeptical and ran my own numbers. I concluded he was wrong. This morning, I am glad I went with my gut.

  46. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (22) hype,

    What did I miss? Did the germans cross the Rhine???

  47. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (41) hehehe

    Pulling back today, bit not meaningful.

  48. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Nom 50 LOL.

  49. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    JJ,

    I liked that one too. Fat @ss dividend. 50 Day DMA broke above the 200 a month ago and has stayed there too.

    Again I don’t know anything about stocks. I am not a specialist. I lose a lot. If you take stock advice from dudes on a message board you will lose all your money.

  50. Anon E. Moose says:

    Gary [8];

    I’d love to agree with you, and on a real basis, I do. I just don’t think you’re adequately considering inflation. My expectation is a flat bottom nominally, and continued declines in real terms. That being the case, buying now and borrowing at less than likely inflation is at least a no-lose, if not a win.

    I’m pissed at the deadbeat squatters and the banks that let them get away with it and the government that throws money at the banks to paper over the banks’ losses so they can afford to let the quatters get away with it. It pissed because there’s value in occupying the housing of choice. So if I buy now with little down and borrow at 4% in a 5% real inflation envirtonment, and the house holds its nominal value because that they was TPTB want it, I get a roof over my head for the cost of maintenance, right?

  51. 30 year realtor says:

    #54 – was that Moose speak for “it’s a great time to buy”?

  52. Happy Renter says:

    All I know is that it’s time for Obama to be given a Nobel prize in economics, to go along with his Nobel peace prize.

  53. 30 year realtor says:

    I have said this in comments here several times: Real estate moves slowly. When there is clear evidence of an appreciating market, then it is time to buy. Currently there is no evidence of anything positive in the real estate market. Only possible reason to buy has to do with individual lifestyle choices.

  54. Mikeinwaiting says:

    30 Year “When there is clear evidence of an appreciating market, then it is time to buy.” Hence my handle, agree.

  55. 3b says:

    #58 30 Year: There are some people in Brig-on-Hack who believe that the schools will save the town form further price declines although they now reluctantly acknowledge that prices have declined in town substantially (and have not risen 26% in on year as some poor clueless poster stated), and cannot fathom that potential buyers may be balking at the insane property taxes, and hence are waiting for further declines in price. Funny thing is form my own unscientific analysis (just comparing test scores) there are other neighboring towns with more reasonable taxes whose schools appear to be just as good.

  56. BC Bob says:

    Veto,

    I’d love to discuss the bubble topic. However, I could go on for days. I’ll try to address more later, no time now.

    Just some quick thoughts; differentiate between short term overbought conditions, frothy levels and mania. Yes, we are short term overbought. Yet, markets can remain overbought for a long period of time. A 200-250 retracement will correct that, throw the late comers out. If you look back over the past 10 years, we have seen new highs, retracements, consolidation, new highs again. If we experience a pullback to 1500-1550, close your eyes and add on. You’ll have one hell of a X-Mas. That said, we are nowhere close to a mania. Approx 1% of the world assets are invested in this sector. Can you imagine what levels this market will be trading at when we reach a 3% level?

    If you have had large gains, employ some strategy to lock them in. Then take advantage of any pullback. We have a long, long way to go.

  57. seif says:

    #61 your fixation on obama as the cause of all (your?) problems is fascinating.

  58. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    One major issue with Gold is that most 401K do not have it as an investment option and most peoples exposure to equities and bonds are in their 401Ks. Therefore, they can’t move to Gold even if they want. 401K and primary residence and cars in driveway for most folk eats up 90%+ of their assets. They can only move rainy day money to Gold. Even then if they have a financial advisor, most likely he would only let you move 5% of assets to gold if he diversifies.

  59. Juice Box says:

    There is some Justice, is he going to gladiator school where he will be incarcerated with some of the thousands of youths whose Lives he ruined?

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44105072/ns/us_news-crime_and_courts/

  60. Anon E. Moose says:

    30-yr [56];

    was that Moose speak for “it’s a great time to buy”?

    Hardly. First, what I think you’ll find in my comments is that my analysis is premised on my expectation of continued inflation and extraordinary efforts to avoid or minimize further nominal house price declines. They’re just that, my expectations. If they are not validated, then my conclusion is at least suspect. Were I, for example, a used house pusher, I’d have no doubts about my opinion (see Dunning-Kruger for further information).

    Second, what I did not say is that for a garden variety used house, I estimate the cost of maintenance at 1-1.5% per year; $4-6,000 on a $400,000 house, or about 500 per month. Several hundred dollars in utilities, with the balance of the difference attributed to the consumtion of increased quality, and you are right about at the cost of rental. However, when the sale price of the house is not (for example) $400,000 but $699,000, the ‘consumption’ portion of the equation is far too high.

    Lastly, whether or not it is a good time to buy is entirely based on whether the house is priced to sell in today’s market or 2006’s. I recall that real estate agents used to give out promotional calendars with their picture on them. They must have stopped that practice, because the sellers I have encountered clearly don’t know what year it is, or at least they don’t know that its no longer 2006.

  61. Al Mossberg says:

    64.

    JJ,

    I know some 401k plans are adding options to invest in mining stocks but I have yet to see what companies are included. I am liquidating my IRA next year. Its an obsolete idea for those not close to retirement.

  62. Libtard in the City says:

    I think they stopped producing the realtor calenders as they have become a fire hazard.

    In other news, locked the 20-year refi at 3.875% no cost this morning. Waiting to see if they can roll the 43K HELOC into it (formerly the piggyback 10% on an 80/10/10 which was variable at 4%). We’ll know after the appraisal on Monday morning. Will be interesting to see how much they value the upgrades vs. the amount of the fall in the local market since January. If we see a 2.0 on the ten-year, I’ll be refinancing 5 more years off the multi mortgage also at no cost. Since it’s not owner occupied any longer, it will cost us about a 1/4 point in the interest rate.

  63. Libtard in the City says:

    Al, you could always invest your IRA in real estate. :P

  64. Juice Box says:

    Kettle1 – be sure to bring clean shorts for this flight.

    DARPA’s Falcon HTV-2 hypersonic aircraft launches today, does New York to LA in 12 minutes!

    http://www.engadget.com/2011/08/11/darpas-falcon-htv-2-hypersonic-aircraft-launches-today-does-ne/

  65. Anon E. Moose says:

    Con’t [66];

    The short of it is that I think we’re approaching the beginnning of a long flat bottom in nominal prices, while inflation continues to erode real prices. If you’re using OPM at sub-inflation interest rates to get in, then you’re no worse off for buying now than later at the ultimate real price bottom. Not exactly a ringing endorsement, but when you throw in personal circumstances [your post 58], it may be a non-insane time to buy, unlike when your bretheren were spouting “buy now or be priced out forever”.

    However, had I been ruled by emotion rather than logic and bought only when personal circumstances dictated it, I would have bought in 2006 — not merely the ultimate historical peak of the housing bubble, but the year it became apparent that the bubble was out of steam for further upside potential.

  66. Anon E. Moose says:

    Walk with me down memory lane… Who remembers this guy?

  67. 30 year realtor says:

    Moose – I agree on a long, flat bottom, but not just yet. Way too much negative sentiment currently for the market to improve to flat. That along with the foreclosure backlog should lead to another leg down over the next 12 to 24 months.

    You can refer to “used house pushers” as my brethren, but I have never given away calendars or told anyone it is a “great time to buy”.

  68. Mr. T. (aka make money) says:

    On Wednesday, a New York City law firm filed class actions against two law schools — New York Law School and Thomas M. Cooley Law School — charging that the job placement information they released to potential students was sufficiently inaccurate as to constitute fraud. Those suits follow a similar one filed in May against Thomas Jefferson School of Law. All of the suits argue that students were essentially robbed of the ability to make good decisions about whether to pay tuition (and to take out student loans) by being forced to rely on incomplete and inaccurate job placement information. Specifically, the suits charge that the law schools in question (and many of their peers) mix together different kinds of employment (including jobs for which a J.D. is not needed) to inflate employment rates.

    It seems like the lawyers will prick edumucation bubble

  69. JJ says:

    Houses are like stocks, 50% of people get screwed. Only time you buy when you think it is undervalued and only time you sell is when you think it over valued

    30 year realtor says:
    August 11, 2011 at 11:50 am
    Moose – I agree on a long, flat bottom, but not just yet. Way too much negative sentiment currently for the market to improve to flat. That along with the foreclosure backlog should lead to another leg down over the next 12 to 24 months.

    You can refer to “used house pushers” as my brethren, but I have never given away calendars or told anyone it is a “great time to buy”.

  70. Libtard in Union says:

    The ten year is back to 2.25. In the short-term, Captain Cheapo might just have nailed an absolute bottom. I’ve inquired about a floating rate lock just in case someone cuts the cheese again in Washington.

  71. Fabius Maximus says:

    #222 barbara (prev thread)

    I’m buying all my gold from The Franklin Mint because I want to score in both the gold market AND the white hot gold plated Garfield figurines market. That’s my hedge. Suckers!

    To the dark side you must go for silver!
    http://news.travel.aol.com/2011/08/11/star-wars-next-sequel-pacific-island-coins/

  72. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (57) happy

    Me and everyone here rofloao.

  73. 3b says:

    #73 #30 Year: Agreed. I may be in the process of looking shortly, and my heart is not even in it. I have no confidence that prices will not fall more, and am fleeing my current town (long tome resident) because of ugly, ugly taxes. I liked where I live. Next purchase (if I do it) will be looked at purely as a long term rental.

    As far as a used house pusher, I do not buy that, there are good and bad in every profession. People trying to sell on their own are in many cases clueless. I have seen more than a few FSBO’s where they would not even get their asking price during the bubble. A good Realtor I believe is an asset to the transaction. Yourself and Clot prove that.

  74. JJ says:

    Please no talk about nailing bottoms.

    Libtard in Union says:
    August 11, 2011 at 12:13 pm
    The ten year is back to 2.25. In the short-term, Captain Cheapo might just have nailed an absolute bottom. I’ve inquired about a floating rate lock just in case someone cuts the cheese again in Washington.

  75. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    This Time, Governments Are Pulling Back Markets’ Safety Nets

    “I can’t help but wonder if that is what has really been priced into the market over the past couple of weeks — a netless market, in which there is no obvious able or willing sovereign ready to backstop falling financial asset prices. In other words, that the markets now realize they are on their own — that they now come second.”

    http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/market-downturn-equity-markets-market-downturn/8/11/2011/id/36287

  76. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (63) seif,

    You are correct. Focusing on Obama is like trying to cure a symptom.

    He isn’t the problem. People like you are.

  77. JJ says:

    Chris Christie caught NJSEA buying lots of PSLs with taxpayer money and then offering seats off to friends, family and cronies for free. He ordered them to sell the seats. None of these seats are owned by Jets or Giants. They are owned by New Jersey Sports and Exhibition Authorty. Crazy Ha

    We are selling the following Giants and Jets PSLs. These PSLs are being offered at face value with no additional surcharges or commissions.

    If you would like more information or would like to purchase any of these PSLs, please contact Meredith Vincent at the NJSEA at 201-460-4368 or mvincent@njsea.com

    Giants

    Section 104 / Row 27 / 4 PSLs / $5,000 each
    Section 137 / Row 24 / 4 PSLs / $20,000 each
    Section 148 / Row 20 / 4 PSLs / $5,000 each
    Section 148 / Row 24 / 8 PSLs / $5,000 each
    Section 242 / Row 8 / 4 PSLs / $7,500 each – Gridiron Club access
    Section 249B / Row 4 / 6 PSLs / $4,000 each

    Jets

    Section 103 / Row 21 / 8 PSLs / $5,000 each
    Section 109 / Row 15 / 4 PSLs / $7,500 each
    Section 111A / Row 18 / 4 PSLs / $15,000 each
    Section 137 / Row 24 / 4 PSLs / $20,000 each
    Section 139 / Row 10 / 4 PSLs / $25,000 each
    Section 223 / Row 5 / 8 PSLs / $4,000 each
    Section 233 / Row 1 / 4 PSLs / $5,000 each – Gridiron Club access

  78. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (77) fabius,

    I’d be disappointed if you bought shiny. It would show you to be a sellout, hypocrite, or both.

    Don’t arm up either. Instead, welcome the opportunity to redistribute your wealth to the mob, just as your countrymen have.

  79. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Putin ‘discovers Greek urns’ on scuba dive

    http://news.yahoo.com/putin-discovers-greek-urns-scuba-dive-154802017.html

    Tell me of a single world leader who can compete with this guy. You know he probably didn’t go out on a boat to scuba dive, he probably walked across the water to a suitable distance then descended into the water.

  80. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (80) JJ

    okay, who are you and what did you do with JJ?

  81. gary says:

    30 yr. [73],

    Once again, a voice of reason and honesty!

  82. Juice Box says:

    re # 85 – the man vacations shirtless in Sibera where he rides horseback and does the butterfly in freezing water.

    Watch the video of his dive, 2 meters of water and a rope leading to the urns. This one
    needs a spoof on comedy central.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/11/putin-scuba-diving-russia-atlantis-_n_924300.html

  83. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Juice,

    No doubt Putin is a man of great virility.

  84. Barbara says:

    88.

    Stay thirsty, my friend.

  85. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Wow, this move up looks like its on less volume than two days ago. Those robots will buy anything if you screw around to make the job number under 400K.

  86. Barbara says:

    77. Fabius

    I may want one of those. Or a few. Or the whole set. Or one set for display and one set mint in its box and a few sets for my offspring.

  87. NJGator says:

    Barbara (92) – Make sure you get them all one of these to keep them safe.

    http://www.franklinmint.com/fm-deluxe-coin-collector-s-display.html

  88. Barbara says:

    94.
    gator

    Can you say “college fund”?

  89. NJGator says:

    Barbara (95) – At the rate our Montclair multi is declining in value, your kids might actually see the better return with this.

  90. RioGrande says:

    wooow, relish your things about A consider at Q2 hearthstone prices | New Jersey Real Estate Report

  91. NJGator says:

    Hey Chifi – Stu and I are going to check out the Memphis Tap Room next week. Thanks for the rec.

  92. Barbara says:

    I would love to see an organic agnostic over educated design hound mix it up with the ladies from NJ. I can’t wait to hear her lecturing about the formaldehyde in your standard set of gel nails and get the girl’s reactions.

  93. pine_brook says:

    Lundbeck in Paramus is laying off
    http://www.fiercebiotech.com/story/profits-surge-lundbeck-slashes-rd-staff-paramus-nj-denmark/2011-08-10
    —-Lundbeck unveiled the news that it will fire from 125 to 175 of its 1,400 R&D workers in its latest quarterly statement. The pharma company reported that a fundamental part of its R&D strategy is to “establish greater flexibility in the use of external and internal capabilities.” That’s code for cutting in-house while relying more on CROs and other outsourcers to handle more of the heavy lifting in R&D, part of the controversial “open ecosystem” trend that has been adopted by such industry leaders as Sanofi and Pfizer—-

    People,
    We got a new word for outsourcing, “open ecosystem”. In this ecosystem, highly paid species go extinct!

  94. Libtard in Union says:

    Oh…speaking of recommendations, I couldn’t get Carnevale in Livingston to give me a call back with the price. Went to my trusty Firestone and probably paid about $75 extra.

  95. Fabius Maximus says:

    Juice/Nom

    You seriously think this guy has a chance?

    “Corporations are people, my friend… of course they are. Everything corporations earn ultimately goes to the people. Where do you think it goes? Whose pockets? Whose pockets? People’s pockets. Human beings my friend.”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/11/mitt-romney-heckled-iowa_n_924426.html

    You say potatoe, I say potato

  96. Al Mossberg says:

    Just watched a campaign stop video with Mitt Romney. What a big pile of horse crap he is. I think I like Obama better.

    “Progressive social security is the solution”

    F_ck him.

  97. Juice Box says:

    re: #103 – dunno yet if people will trust someone they cannot have a drink with.

  98. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [103] fabius

    1. Yes

    2. That is technically correct. ATEOTD, anything that a corporation “earns” is recorded as an accrual to an individual (eventually). In property class, law students are taught that property is a bundle of rights for legal purposes. Similarly with corporations–they are are more complex, and more indirect, form of a pass through entity. Ultimately, every penny a corporation earns goes to someone; depending on what it is destined for, that penny could have a long journey or a short one, but Romney is correct.

  99. Juice Box says:

    again – he’s never been a drinker period as he claimed recently he said on “Piers Tonight” that he’s only “experimented” with alcohol one time. This is from a guy who spent 2.5 years in France dodgin the draft on a ministerial deferment.

    Sorry but I don’t trust anybody I cannot have a drink with.

  100. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [103] Fabius,

    Calvin Coolidge (one of my favorite presidents), is attributed the quote “the business of America is business.” The meaning seems obvious enough, yet I have heard some like yourself argue that it meant something opposite of the text.

    So I ran it down, and here is the contextual section from a speech given by Coolidge on the press:

    “There does not seem to be cause for alarm in the dual relationship of the press to the public, whereby it is on one side a purveyor of information and opinion and on the other side a purely business enterprise. Rather, it is probable that a press which maintains an intimate touch with the business currents of the nation, is likely to be more reliable than it would be if it were a stranger to these influences. After all, the chief business of the American people is business. They are profoundly concerned with producing, buying, selling, investing and prospering in the world. I am strongly of opinion that the great majority of people will always find these are moving impulses of our life. The opposite view was oracularly and poetically set forth in those lines of Goldsmith which everybody repeats, but few really believe:

    Ill fares the land, to hastening ills a prey,
    Where wealth accumulates, and men decay.

    Excellent poetry, but not a good working philosophy. Goldsmith would have been right, if, in fact, the accumulation of wealth meant the decay of men. It is rare indeed that the men who are accumulating wealth decay. It is only when they cease production, when accumulation stops, that an irreparable decay begins. Wealth is the product of industry, ambition, character and untiring effort. In all experience, the accumulation of wealth means the multiplication of schools, the increase of knowledge, the dissemination of intelligence, the encouragement of science, the broadening of outlook, the expansion of liberties, the widening of culture. Of course, the accumulation of wealth can not be justified as the chief end of existence. But we are compelled to recognize it as a means to well nigh every desirable achievement. So long as wealth is made the means and not the end, we need not greatly fear it. . . .”

    For someone known as Silent Cal, he is quite wordy at times.

    BTW, I did not find the diversion into Goldsmith to be particularly relevant. To the extent that you would call BS on old Calvin because he did not artfully turn a phrase, save it.

  101. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [107] Juice

    Dukakis ran ads to appeal to hardhats and blue collars. In it, two hard hats were saying “If you want someone to have a shot and a beer with, call your buddy.”

    As for mormons and the general fear folks have, I have lived, worked, partied (yes, I knew some that drank), and generally hung out with many. To a person, if they didn’t tell me what their faith was, I would not have guessed. They were so normal, it defied explanation.

  102. 3b says:

    #09 Com: Iused to work with a bunch of them at GS, incredibly nice hard working group of people. But they do have some what I consider odd beliefs. The converts are the most zealous.

  103. JC says:

    3b: Brand new listing in WT:

    http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/386-Hickory-St_Township-Of-Washington_NJ_07676_M68861-34550

    No photos yet, and above your price range a bit so far, but it’s a sprawling house on a big lot; I think it’s all updated. Nice street, dead-end block.

  104. Juice Box says:

    re #109 – Nom – I don’t care if he worships Cthulhu, what I am saying is he is either lying about it on TV like Clinton did with his didn’t inhale garbage or he is truly the anti-christ because even Jesus, Moses,Muhammad, and Brigham Young drank wine.

  105. Barbara says:

    re mormons:
    I really don’t care for the little missionary 20 somethings tooling around here in their short sleeved white button ups and backpacks. I told two of them nicely to get off my porch, no thanks and he actually stepped to me. Like all religious zealots, they have an exploitive nature and I have zero patience.

  106. JC says:

    #113 – I don’t know, after catching a bootleg video of a preview performance of “The Book of Mormon” on YouTube, I’m ready to invite them in and see how much like the Parker/Stone version they are.

  107. 4c says:

    71 “The short of it is that I think we’re approaching the beginnning of a long flat bottom in nominal prices, while inflation continues to erode real prices. If you’re using OPM at sub-inflation interest rates to get in, then you’re no worse off for buying now than later at the ultimate real price bottom.”

    Rubbish. The long flat bottom is certain but not until buyers can afford their houses after increasing taxes, higher cost of living, and grim prospects of unemployment, retirement etc. not in this economy. You completely ignore the CS index which shows exactly that.

    I have no problem accepting that there can be a reversal but not if economy does not grow but it grows only when on of the following improves dom demand, pub spending, trade deficit, investments–elementary for those who have some grasp of economic principles. Each of those are down the drain with no end in sight. We are in recession (formally or otherwise) and if one thinks there can be a bottom in housing one is in denial.

  108. JJ says:

    I had two of those freaks come up to my locked screen door once and started talking to my two year old, I let loose on them calling them pedophiles and child molestors as I hate them to begin with, jerks pretended to be nice and walked to neighbors door where I followed them and as soon as the door opened I told neighbors what they did and that I called 911 and Police are on way to arrest these pedophiles as my daughter is claiming they tired to abduct her. The two freeks went running down the block never to be seen again. Of course I never called 9/11 but these two guys came by like three times trying to save people and I was sick of them. They wanted religion I gave them religion. Got to fight fire with fire. I have no patentience for religous nuts. Problem is most people humour them and let them grow like a cancer.

  109. Alap says:

    Can anyone recommend a good sports bar/restaurant near 287 beteween Bridgewater & Morristown? Maybe one with an outdoor area?

    Thanks.

  110. Libtard in Union says:

    I just answer the door in my underwear. It always works.

  111. Al Mossberg says:

    113.

    The Hasidic Jews are the same way. They pay a premium for a house in a neighborhood then rent it out to migrants. Crime follows motivating other homeowners to sell. Prices drop. Neighborhood goes to sh_t. Then the Hasidics buy it all up kicking out the renters just like Palestine.

    I remember my Dad telling me a story about a hasidic guy knocking on his door asking him if he wanted to sell his house. He said “no” and shut the door. Guy knocked again and stuck his foot in the door. My Dad said get the f_ck out of here before I call the cops. He later mentioned that he wanted to start having mass in the backyard.

  112. 3b says:

    #11 JC Thanks Will take a drive by. I have to be honest the thought of having to drive to the train every day, is not something I look forward to. However it is either that or pay 12 -14k and up in property taxes with no end in sight. Or move back to NYC!!!

  113. 4c says:

    Trade deficit widened to $53 bn amidst the weakest dollar period (low rates, s&p downgrade, etc) which shows nothing can take us out of this slump. If this continues I cannot see how this will not affect Manhattan market which is long due for a crash–in this case NYC and environs re is royally fcu*ked. Consider yourself warned.

  114. 3b says:

    If you are a Mormon and you leave, than you are shunned.

    Knew one back in the day at GS, left the Mormons, called me said he was in NYC. That night out to the Post House red meat, tons of booze, expensive cigars,and bad language; I showed him a great time!!!

  115. JJ says:

    Funny part is Hasidic Jews are not Jewish. Like in Christianity there are Catholics, Lutherns, Espicalapiens, Medotists, etc. Not that I can spell them. Then there are Christian Scientists, Mormans, Seventh Day Adventuries, 700 Club, cult like kooky things that claim they are Christian but are not. Jews in Israel do not recognize as Jewish, it is a whole made up thing
    Bacially it was founded in 18th century Eastern Europe by Rabbi Israel Baal Shem Tov as a reaction against overly legalistic Judaism.

    Al Mossberg says:
    August 11, 2011 at 3:18 pm
    113.

    The Hasidic Jews are the same way. They pay a premium for a house in a neighborhood then rent it out to migrants. Crime follows motivating other homeowners to sell. Prices drop. Neighborhood goes to sh_t. Then the Hasidics buy it all up kicking out the renters just like Palestine.

    I remember my Dad telling me a story about a hasidic guy knocking on his door asking him if he wanted to sell his house. He said “no” and shut the door. Guy knocked again and stuck his foot in the door. My Dad said get the f_ck out of here before I call the cops. He later mentioned that he wanted to start having mass in the backyard.

  116. JJ says:

    weird religion, they are against gay marriage but call their religion more men,

  117. 3b says:

    #24 They are big on converting people, and have a point system, RC’s and Jews are worth more points as they are considered tougher to convert.

  118. JJ says:

    On Long Island there are a lot of Jewish/Italian Couples who practice both the Jewish and Catholic faith. Would they be like the daily double for a Morman looking to convert people?

  119. 3b says:

    #26JJ Could be!!! They are also into ritual baths (only for the men), and they have different levels within the church you start at the bottom and work your way up. Their services can be 3 hours or more, and women worship by themselves in the basement. It is totally a male dominated religion. They also have lots of kids.

  120. Fabius Maximus says:

    #108 Nom

    My favorite Calvin quote is the one where he says that the Great Depression would have happened regardless of the party in power.

    Republican president runs the economy into the wall, walks away with a my bad”

    Whats old becomes new.

  121. Fabius Maximus says:

    Didn’t see this coming!
    Decline of western society has been posponed to a later date.
    /sarc

    http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/europe/08/11/ukriots.accused/index.html?hpt=hp_c1

    The Daily Mail reported: “While the trouble has been largely blamed on feral teenagers, many of those paraded before the courts yesterday led apparently respectable lives.”

    The upmarket Daily Telegraph devoted its page three to the case of Laura Johnson, the 19-year-old daughter of a company director who pleaded not guilty to stealing £5,000 ($8,000) of electrical goods, under the headline: “Girl who has it all is accused of theft.”

  122. Confused In NJ says:

    Orthodox Jews and Vulcans—What’s the Similarity?
    The split-fingered Vulcan salute from Star Trek is actually derived from an Orthodox ritual, the Blessing Hands used to anoint congregations on holy days. Star Trek icon Leonard Nimoy, who was raised in the Orthodox tradition, adapted the hand gesture for his role as Mr. Spock.

  123. Confused In NJ says:

    Investors are behaving irrationally because they’re being driven by irrational fiscal and monetary policy, banking analyst Dick Bove said.

    In a lengthy and detailed broadside on banking regulations, Federal Reserve actions and the peril that awaits, the Rochdale Securities vice president of equity research asserts the US “is as bankrupt as the Europeans” and headed for trouble unless a massive bailout fund is created.

  124. 3b says:

    30 Year treas auction was poorly received today, and the 10 year closed at 2.34. That was a quick refinance window!!!

  125. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [127] fabius

    I’m confused. When even a student of the Depression such as Helicopter Ben said that the crash happened because the Fed tightened when it should have loosened, was that Hoover? Was he also running the Fed? And as for economic morass in the decades following, are you also alleging that he caused the Dust Bowl, which accounted for a significant hit to housing, employment, savings and dislocation?

    And how long did it take Roosevelt to end it? WWII didn’t start until his second term, and if you read some economists, the war merely ameliorated the depression for awhile and the country slid back into it and stayed there until the Eisenhower administration.

    Tell you what? You publish your paper on how Hoover (or Bush) caused the Great Depression and I’ll publish mine. Then we’ll score them on how much of the academic world (which should be biased in your favor, so you ought to take this bet) calls them BS. Okay?

  126. JJ says:

    Re 34 I know a girl who used to take her Hoover and put it on her Bush. And believe me she was not depressed afterwards.

  127. Happy Renter says:

    JJ you are an effing machine, man. A Turing Machine.

  128. Juice Box says:

    RBS says 10 year will drop to 1.75

  129. Happy Renter says:

    “Stephen King, HSBC’s chief economist, said the ECB should drop its ideological opposition to QE and embrace easy money same way as the US Federal Reserve.”

    http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report_ecb-may-need-2-5-trillion-to-save-europe_1574364

    Embrace oblivion?

  130. BC Bob says:

    Happy [138],

    Thankfully the stress tests, last summer, alleviated market concerns. The French banks were rated top notch, clear sailing ahead.

  131. Anon E. Moose says:

    3b [79];

    As far as a used house pusher, I do not buy that, there are good and bad in every profession. People trying to sell on their own are in many cases clueless. I have seen more than a few FSBO’s where they would not even get their asking price during the bubble. A good Realtor I believe is an asset to the transaction. Yourself and Clot prove that.

    Well, the problem as I see it is that despite having three good realtors (forget Grim?)in our midst, the BLS says that there were over half a million of them in 2008 (a href=”http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos120.htm”>linky). And the other 499,000 or so sure do ruin the reputation of the 2% of good ones like ours.

  132. gary says:

    Bernanke claims that rates will not budge for the next two years. I guess this administration is finally admitting that quadrupling the debt along with their economic policies have failed tremendously.

  133. Confused In NJ says:

    NEW YORK (AP) — An online petition calling for the nuptials of Muppet flat-mates Bert and Ernie has sparked comment, controversy and lots of tweets.

    Chicago resident Lair Scott, who posted the petition, is seeking matrimony for the “Sesame Street” chums as a way to make gay and lesbian kids who watch the show feel better about themselves, and to promote tolerance for people who are different.

    The marriage could legitimately happen, he reasons, since Sesame Street is located in New York, where gay marriage became legal in June. Others agreed. By Thursday afternoon, Scott’s petition had collected 5,800 signatures.

    I wonder if Governor Cumo will officiate?

  134. Zea says:

    wooow, be pleased your things about A look at Q2 home prices | renovated Jersey Real Estate Report

  135. Fabius Maximus says:

    #134 Nom

    Calvin pressued the fed to push down rates through the 20’s and to keep them low. All the cheap credit fueled the roaring twenties and pushed the market to the moon. There was a 60% monetary expansion. If you are saying that the rate hikes in early 29 that the fed used to back down to monetery supply kicked off the depression, i would say those rates hikes were just a wafer thin mint. Bens comments were more focused on the rate hikes in the 30’s to try and combat the defaltion spiral.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXH_12QWWg8

  136. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [130] fabius

    Not at all unusual. In the 60’s, many US radicals were not the urban poor, but the bored youth of the well-off, rebelling from their parents and their society. Case in point: Patty Hearst.

  137. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [143] fabius,

    So are you suggesting that Hoover inherited a powderkeg economy, one that he could not have controlled? Clearly, you blame Hoover. What did he do that he should not have, or did not do that he should have?

    Now I know you will say he should have enacted the New Deal, and I guess you could fault him for not being visionary enough to ram a bold, untested, novel economic theory through Congress and the courts, all the while bending and breaking laws, threatening to pack courts, and generally morphing our political economy in a radical fashion, a fashion that did not actually do much until the uber stimulus of WWII (a point that is not debated except on the loony left fringe). There are economists that said WWII wasn’t stimulative enough, and want Obama to do something similar.

    Here’s your chance to nail Hoover, not just say he owned it cuz it happened on his watch. By that measure, the current malaise is Obama’s.

  138. gary says:

    WASHINGTON (AP) — The financially strapped U.S. Postal Service is considering cutting as many as 120,000 jobs.

    Facing a second year of losses totaling $8 billion or more, the agency also wants to pull its workers out of the retirement and health benefits plans covering federal workers and set up its own benefit systems.

    Carry on…

  139. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Something occurred to me about the folks heckling Romney today. I wonder where they work? Clearly, they don’t care for corporations, so it stands to reason that they don’t, or won’t, work for one. To do so and criticize seems to be hypocrisy. After all, the left calls hypocrisy on those legislators who would cut certain benefits, yet still accept them.

    In fact, the progressive working for a corporation is more of a hypocrite: he or she could choose not to work there. The conservative who accepts benefits paid for through his or her taxes had no say in funding the scheme, so why should they deny themselves the benefit?

  140. NJ Toast says:

    Perhaps some of the RE experts can share some of their wisdom and street smarts:

    Looking for place to rent in NJ. Found a something of interest – was winterized (antifreeze in all water pipes, plumbing fixtures etc) last November (I have never seen this). Signs on every plumbing fixture indicating so. I would have thought in the spring they would have turned all the plumbing back on but this is not the case.

    Furnace turned off during winter. House is vacant, AC not on, many recessed light fixtures not working (forgot to check breakers on main electric panel).

    Newer home – in very good shape but my gut tells me something is not right.

    Feedback appreciated. Also – is local police department obliged to give me any info on reports pertaining to the property – I have done this in the past and gotten good info about property in question and the area.

    Was planning to use Lexis Nexis for due dilligence.

    Thanks,

  141. BC Bob says:

    “It is our duty to not only to remain long gold but to buy more on corrections as they occur.”

    Dennis Gartman- Today’s Letter

  142. BC Bob says:

    “Furnace turned off during winter”

    NJT,

    Sorry, can’t help myself;

    “Woke up this morning my house was cold
    Checked out the furnace she wasn’t burnin’
    Went out and hopped in my old Ford
    Hit the engine but she ain’t turnin’
    We’ve given each other some hard lessons lately
    But we ain’t learnin’
    We’re the same sad story that’s a fact
    One step up and two steps back”

  143. Neanderthal Economist says:

    43, miw, interesting chart, so unemployment is nowhere near as bad as 70s right now?

  144. Al Mossberg says:

    149.

    Bob,

    Locked and loaded.

  145. Al Mossberg says:

    Re: Postal workers.

    Maybe the Canadians can deliver our mail.

  146. Jayme Moss says:

    Hey, I just discovered your website. We blog about very similar subjects, so I wondered if you would want to consider swapping website links?

  147. BC Bob says:

    Al [152],

    The professor confirms that he has no clue, monetary policy will result in negative real rates until, at least, mid 2013. We are in deep doo-doo. Debase forever. The stallion has left the barn. He no coming back.

  148. Al Mossberg says:

    Bob,

    “Gold fights the political wars, but Silver rides through the broken phalanx on a white horse to capture outsized gains”

    Off to watch Ron Paul

  149. 3b says:

    #151 What was the U.S. poulation in the 1970’s? Not to mention we were still a manufacturing power house in the 1970s’s.

  150. 3b says:

    #58 u.S. Population in 1975 was about 216 million; today around 330 million. Big difference.

  151. Fabius Maximus says:

    #106 Nom

    1) Yes? Ok, lets see if the rubber meets the road. I’ll bet a bottle of malt on O vs Romney. I even give you a choice and let you have O vs any republican.

    2) I understand the legal standing of Santa Clara vs Southern Railroad, but your arguement falls down when you bring the likes of Sovreign wealth funds into the mix, but thats splitting hairs here. Romneys big problem here is that there is a big difference between “We the People” and “We the shareholder”
    This is Romneys “Read my lips” , he’s now political floatsom.

  152. BC Bob says:

    “u.S. Population in 1975 was about 216 million; today around 330 million.”

    3b,

    ……and the US Treasury sends out 80 million checks a month. As fires rage in England, the US welfare nation is smoldering.

  153. BC Bob says:

    “I’ll bet a bottle of malt on O vs Romney.\”

    Fab,

    And I’ll bet you if O gets elected, shiny will be 5K by 2016.

  154. BC Bob says:

    Everything that dies someday comes back. Come to think of it, let’s blame Paul Revere on the Brit invasion.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/four-european-countries-impose-short-selling-ban-2011-08-11?link=MW_home_latest_news

    “When I find a short-seller, I want to tear his heart out and eat it before his eyes while he’s still alive.”

    Sat Night Live; Oops Dick Fuld

  155. Fabius Maximus says:

    #148 nom,
    Yes, I don’t think there was anything Hoover could have done to stop the crash. He does pick up a sliver of blame as he ran on the Coolidge record and continued on with the same policies.Very much in the way that GWHB ran on Regans record and continued on with the program. Were Hoover falls down is that he owns the response and it was terrible, between the tarriffs and plowing over the fields. FDR gets the credit for the resolution, but even there he had to fight the Republicans to provide aid to the Europeands and to even get into the war.
    Fast forward to today, GWB owns the cause fully. Two full terms and all on his watch. Does O own the response? That is the tough one to answer. The GOP as the party of No has not allowed him to move to really provide a response.
    Collidge and Hoover are symbiotic. In the polls of greatest presidents, they are tied together, just ahead or GWB and just behind Jimmy Carter. I think that sums them up nicely.

  156. Anon E. Moose says:

    NJToast [148];

    The house is most likely a foreclosure/REO that was winterized by the repossessing bank after they got the occupant out, one if not two winters ago. The bank probably dumped it at auction (Google REDC or auction.com), and the purchaser wasn’t going to do a damn thing to it until they had income via tenant (and even then…). Any chance the listing realtor owns it [Tony Montata?]?

    If the landlord isn’t competent or willing to spend money so that the place shows decently and attracts a tenant, how do you think they are going to respond when the first thing breaks?

  157. A.West says:

    Fabs,
    Coolidge and Hoover were very different presidents in terms of policy. Coolidge was a fan of the Fed to his discredit, but looking at a speech he seemed to think it was a countermeasure to the genuine evil of branch banking laws that left banks incapable of diversifying local credit downturns.

    Hoover was a much more economically activist president. In some of what I read, FDR in some respects initially posed as running to the right of Hoover, but ended up taking Hoover’s internventionism to new heights of insanity, and significantly deepening the depression with bad policies in the fascist style coupled with major policy regime uncertainty, making it very difficult for business to plan or invest.

  158. Fabius Maximus says:

    #147 Nom

    I suspect the retirees were the ones guninng for him on Social Security.

    But maybe it was workers (either union or not) seeing another Chainsaw Al outsourcing their jobs in the pursuit of shareholder value. The want to meet the corporate person just to beat the sh1t out of them for being un-American.

  159. Fabius Maximus says:

    #161 BC Bob

    The only thing I understand about Gold is trading .333 troy ounces. I do not understand gold or silver at the moment. For me I had to go metals (and I don’t), I would be in platinum or paladium. I like quiet waters.

  160. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “#151 What was the U.S. poulation in the 1970′s?”
    3b this is irrelevant question, the second chart already takes population into account and shows that employment to population is nowhere near as bas as 1970’s.

  161. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [159] fabius

    1. You asked if he had a chance and I said yes. Doesn’t mean he will get the nom or even win (I am on record as saying O squeaks by, but lately I am not so sure). Anyway, I will man up and take that bet, provided we open it upon payment.

    2. Sovereign wealth funds? I think that is taking the point far afield. Did you mean the SWFs as corporations (couldn’t be that), or as shareholders? One can still argue that the entity represents someone, even if it is the foreign citizens at large, but given the ownership of SWFs in domestic corporations, that is a micro exception to the rule at best.
    And in case you haven’t figured it out, I’m agnostic. Beat up on corporations all you want. If the gov. zigs, they zag, and if they can’t the shareholders do. It may be leftist mantra that corporations have souls, and that these are malignant, always looking to rapaciously strip the hide from the common man, but the truth is simpler: They do what they must to survive, or they don’t survive. So hide our corporations all you want; you will find an approving audience in the chinese, koreans, japanese, germans, vietnamese, canadians, . . .

  162. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [166] fabius,

    “The want to meet the corporate person just to beat the sh1t out of them for being un-American.”

    Well, at least you did not say illegal. Good luck finding that corporate person; he is as ethereral as vapor.

    But you do beg the question: What constitutes “being un-American” and what must (not should) said corporation (or persons running said corporation) do? (and lets assume that they are obeying all relevant laws).

  163. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [163] fabius

    “Fast forward to today, GWB owns the cause fully. Two full terms and all on his watch. Does O own the response? That is the tough one to answer. The GOP as the party of No has not allowed him to move to really provide a response.
    Collidge and Hoover are symbiotic. In the polls of greatest presidents, they are tied together, just ahead or GWB and just behind Jimmy Carter. I think that sums them up nicely.”

    The one fact you allege is incorrect; While the Republicans were the so-called party of no, they were not in the majority. They had no ability to block the Democrats.

    The rest is opinion, the world according to a person and his perceptions, and I don’t argue with that.

  164. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Vets overall not as bad, but look at the red line for the male population. Also blue line overall coming close. This from the second chart. Now look at the dependency chart, old people not kids coming up big time. Not a good picture anyway you cut it.

  165. Mikeinwaiting says:

    P.S. Vets 70s were no fun. I was young we were dirt poor & remember it being bad through the eyes of a child.

  166. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    If anyone was wondering how the US would deal with its debt problem, I don’t think anyone in power said it clearer than the Oracle:

    “The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default” said Greenspan on NBC’s Meet the Press

    Suddenly, Clot’s Weimar references aren’t so farfetched.

  167. gary (146)-

    Abolish the post office. Between e-mail, FedEx and UPS, they got it covered.

    After we abolish the PO, we can set fire to the Fed.

  168. Who writes letters anymore? Hell, nobody in my youngest’s school ever bothered to teach him how to write on paper with a pen or pencil.

  169. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Forget gold Nom stock up on lead , caliber of your choice. Watching the fall of Rome in real time would be interesting if I wasn’t Roman.

  170. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Hey Clot got out in good order right on the dip after Fed statement. Lucky I guess, used DRV you know it well.

  171. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Clot let me know where you are at, in Hudson often. You have my email.

  172. Fabius Maximus says:

    Nom,

    we have a bet.

    “The one fact you allege is incorrect; While the Republicans were the so-called party of no, they were not in the majority. They had no ability to block the Democrats. ”

    Senate was 40 + Joe Libermann, (the worlds biggest sell out, just behind Arlen Specter)
    In the house one of the silver linings of the 2010 elections was the 28 DINO Blue Dogs going under the bus.

  173. Fabius Maximus says:

    #172 Nom /A West

    I would put this up for further discussion.

    http://dailyreckoning.com/atlas-is-not-shrugging-hes-just-outsourcing/

  174. Fabius Maximus says:

    As to London, if you look past the main headlines there is an undercurrent in the UK that will prevail. When I saw Clapam and Ealing in the riot map I knew this was not tied to Tottenham. There are still fundamental problems with why the inital incident was handled so badly, but overall, the UK will survive any downturn better than most.

    http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/europe/08/09/london.riots.clean.up/index.html?iref=obnetwork

  175. Abel says:

    wooow, like your things in worth to A look at Q2 severe prices | New Jersey Real Estate Report

  176. Do you have a Facebook page or Twitter? Would love to follow you there, I’m on my iPhone and love reading your stuff!

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