Distressed homes are the market

From the Record:

A third of homes sold in second quarter were in foreclosure

Almost one in three homes sold in the U.S. in the second quarter were owned by banks or in some stage of foreclosure, RealtyTrac reported today. In New Jersey, where foreclosure activity has been stalled for most of this year, about one in seven homes sold was either owned by a bank or in the foreclosure process.

Because these properties sell for deep discounts, they offer opportunities for bargain hunters, said RealtyTrac’s CEO, James J. Saccacio.

“This report is clearly good news for well-positioned buyers and investors looking for bargain real estate that will build them wealth in the long term and often cash flow as rental real estate in the short term,” Saccacio said. RealtyTrac follows the foreclosure market nationwide.

Distressed sales were most common in the troubled real estate markets of Nevada, Arizona and California, RealtyTrac said. In Nevada, for example, foreclosure-related sales accounted for 65 percent of all sales.

The average sale price of a home in foreclosure or owned by a bank was 32 percent lower than the average sale price of homes not in foreclosure. In New Jersey, the discounts were even bigger, ranging from about 31 percent for homes sold as short sales — when a bank allows a home to be sold for less than the amount owed on the mortgage — up to 53 percent for bank-owned homes.

RealtyTrac also found that short sales took on average 245 days in the second quarter, down from 256 in the first quarter. Sacaccio called that a sign that the housing market is “starting to focus on more efficiently clearing distressed inventory, at least in some areas.”

Real estate agents and prospective buyers have complained that lenders have been slow to approve short sales, often leading buyers to give up in frustration.

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196 Responses to Distressed homes are the market

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. Mike says:

    The average sale price of a home in foreclosure or owned by a bank was 32 percent lower than the average sale price of homes not in foreclosure. = LOWER APPRAISALS (yesterdays topic)

  3. grim says:

    From the Philly Inquirer:

    Philadelphia housing market fares better than many

    The U.S. housing market still looks bleak. In July, prices dropped for the third straight month, and sales of new houses dipped yet again. Last week, mortgage applications fell off after Wall Street’s wild ride, though interest rates remained very low.

    But in the Philadelphia region, local observers say, things aren’t looking so bad, which has been the case through much of the real estate bust.

    New-home sales here are sluggish just like everywhere else, said economist Kevin Gillen of Econsult Corp., but Philadelphia’s market isn’t plagued by large inventory the way Sun Belt cities such as Las Vegas and Phoenix are.

    “We have not seen the catastrophic declines in new-home prices or new-home sales that a lot of other areas have,” Gillen said.

    John Mangano, Toll Bros. group president for Philadelphia, Bucks, and Montgomery Counties, said this market was “holding its own.” Sales at Toll’s Naval Square, a mix of condos and town houses at 24th and Bainbridge Streets, are strong, and building of single-family houses in the suburbs is steady, he said.

    “Of course, everybody knows it’s slow,” Mangano added, but there are still buyers out there. “People sitting on the fence for a long time are making moves every day.”

    The Philadelphia market “has never boomed like other areas, and it’s never hit the lows of other areas, either,” he said.

  4. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    Homeowner says Bank of America foreclosure notice doesn’t add up

    As a real estate agent, Mark Conca has watched homeowners struggle to make their mortgage payments. He’s seen a lot of short sales and foreclosures in recent years, and he’s even assisted homeowners looking for mortgage modifications.

    He didn’t want to be one of them.

    But the distressed housing market put a major dent in Conca’s commission-based income. He said he still paid his bills on time, but his savings account was dwindling.

    He decided to approach his lender, Bank of America, to see if he’d qualify for a modification. After he applied, many months passed and Conca heard nothing from the bank. Knowing lenders had huge backups in modification requests, he remained patient.

    Conca, 41, continued to make the full payment on the mortgage for his Caldwell home, on time, every month.

    But that’s not what Bank of America said when it sent Conca a letter about its intent to foreclose.

    “I would have been better going to a loan shark and borrowing all that money,” Conca said. “At least with the street mafia, you know where you stand.”

  5. Too bad this dupe doesn’t understand that BAC is no more than a group of street thug shylocks.

  6. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Is this hurricane a bunch of hype or something to worry about? Those things always seem to peter out by the time they get up to NYC.

  7. Confused in NJ says:

    Current Irene Threat Level for NJ/NYC is “Extreme”. Only Level higher then that is “Catastrophic”. They must be concerned, as I got an Email from my Congressman advising I have my evacuation plan in place. I guess by Saturday they should have a decent lock on the final path.

  8. All Hype says:

    Confused (8):
    If the track for Irene holds, it will hug the Jersey coast. There is going to be some serious beach flooding and erosion. It will not help that it will also be a slow moving storm.

  9. nj escapee says:

    We stayed in our house in Key West during Wilma. That was no joke. Storm surge swamped most of the Keys. Water was up just below the top step of our porch. We were fortunate but many homes were destroyed / damaged, 1000s of cars were destroyed. No electrical power for days for many. Luckily the Waterfront Market and some supermarkets have backup powers so food was not an issue. They were towing cars out of the Keys for about a year after that.

  10. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    And I am supposed to drive to ocean city md on Sat. Fun.

  11. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    417k on jobless claims.

  12. Confused in NJ says:

    9.All Hype says:
    August 25, 2011 at 8:22 am
    Confused (8):
    If the track for Irene holds, it will hug the Jersey coast. There is going to be some serious beach flooding and erosion. It will not help that it will also be a slow moving storm.

    Worst comes to worst, I’ll drive to north/western upstate NY, which looks clear. Newer construction like mine can’t take the hit, that older construction could take. The third little piggy was right, brick only, when the wolf is blowing on your door.

  13. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    I am in Hoboken, it always floods here, and I don’t have a car. Guess I’ll tough it out. Doubt this thing is any stronger than a Cat 1 by the time it gets up here.

  14. chicagofinance says:

    I’m sure more of a PIA than anything else…..according to the notes on 411, anything more than a CAT 1 (given the path) will put the entire town west of Washington Street underwater…..suggestion is to go to Stevens for high ground….

    Dissident HEHEHE says:
    August 25, 2011 at 8:34 am
    I am in Hoboken, it always floods here, and I don’t have a car. Guess I’ll tough it out. Doubt this thing is any stronger than a Cat 1 by the time it gets up here.

  15. chicagofinance says:

    This just in…..Obama blames Bush administration and Congress for Hurricane Irene….

  16. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    O has done everything but blame Bush for unwanted creases in his dress shirts. Obviously the lack of starch is Bush’s fault.

    Hurricane Irene meh glad I live on top of a hill. Ket, if you drive by on Saturday you’ll see me pruning dead branches out of the trees that will be the extent of my huurricane prep

  17. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Chi,

    I am on the fourth floor, no biggie. Get my Fresh Direct tonight. Dog can do his business in the building courtyard – take that Irene:)

  18. Juice Box says:

    HEHEHE – back in 2007 there was 4ft of water in places by the Sky Club, this time it could be 10 foot. The thought of 100 mph winds reminds me of this.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hurricane_winds_drive_a_10-foot_2X4_through_a_palm_tree.jpg

  19. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    I live right by the Sky Club and was there in 2007- that Harrison and First intersection was just as bad a couple weeks ago. I would be more concerned with the winds but like I said doubt it’s more than a cat 1 by the time it gets here. Wouldn’t want to be renting a shore house this weekend.

  20. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    NYT:

    US May Back Mortgage Refinancing for Millions

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/44269404

    FREE PONY’S FOR EVERYONE!!!

    Seriously, is there anybody who hasn’t refinanced who can and do they really think those who can’t have any way of paying in the first place.

  21. NJGator says:

    Hoboken floods if it drizzles. I’d get the hell out of dodge.

  22. Libtard at home (new refrigerator broke) says:

    Wow. I suppose I purchased the generator just in time.

    I’m a bit of a weather geek, so I’ll offer my very premature prediction. Those by the shore should prepare to evacuate on Friday. On Saturday it will be pure havoc. Those 30 miles or more inland will probably just see a lot of wind (potential power outages), but not that much rain (much less flooding than the shore towns). If somehow the storm misses the mainland in the Carolina’s and then turns more westerly, then yes, we’d be pretty screwed. Fortunately, this is highly unlikely. It’s probably too late, but those who don’t own a sump pump should probably get one.

  23. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Re: Hurry-cane Irene

    Here in Coastal Monmouth county all the basic precautions should be taken. Put the Deck furniture and umbrellas away, check the bottled water supply, batteries for the radio are OK, gas in the car (just in case). If we have to bolt, the Go Bag is ready, grab the valuables in the safe…..and high-tail it to higher ground. But I’ve lived within blocks of the bay for 26 years and there’s only been one Big Water (ironically it was that storm in December 1993).

    Did you see the gov of North Carolina yesterday ?? Imploring the citizens of OBX to “get cash from the bank in case the ATMs broke down”………that woman is the poster child for bad plastic surgery.

  24. Libtard at home (new refrigerator broke) says:

    And good luck getting a generator. I got the last one from all of the Lowes in NJ. Went to Eatontown to get it. Home Depot has those Husky’s, but you’d be lucky if they started up once for you.

  25. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    I am a tough camper. Unless there’s 30 ft of water I think I’ll be okay. You people spazz out way too much.

  26. Juice Box says:

    If you don’t have a generator run out to Home Depot and buy a cheap DC/AC inverter. It won’t power the washing machine but you can run small electronics off it it, they do have stock.

    http://www.homedepot.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/Search?keyword=inverter&selectedCatgry=SEARCH+ALL&langId=-1&storeId=10051&catalogId=10053&Ntpc=1&Ntpr=1

  27. Libtard at home (new refrigerator broke) says:

    I just looked at the charts. I don’t even think we’ll see sustained winds over 40 mph. I’m going with a nothing to worry about forecast at this point.

  28. Juice Box says:

    HEHEHE – Not spazzing out. Day care will be closed monday to clean up if there is alot of flooding. My wife and I both need to work monday come hell or high water. My bug out place down the shore is on a better electrical grid. I also have FIOS internet with a and backup Optimum Wifi account as well as an AT&T air card. If the tunnels are flooded the trains and buses won’t be running on monday and the ferry will be massively jammed. We are leaving so we can both relax and dial into work while everyone else scrambles around like scurrying water rats.

  29. Outofstater says:

    Chances are you’ll be fine, but wouldn’t hurt to be prepared for the hurricane. Figure on being without power and water for three days and prepare accordingly. I’d start now, before the stores run out of supplies.

  30. homeboken says:

    HEHE – Did you see the freak-out warning from Zimmer? See below for excerpts:

    > The City of Hoboken is making preparations for the potential impacts of Hurricane Irene, which is currently forecast to reach the Northeast as a Category 2 hurricane between late Saturday and Monday. Residents are strongly urged to be prepared.
    >
    > If we are hit by a hurricane ‚even a Category 1 ‚the flooding can be very widespread and severe,‚said Mayor Dawn Zimmer. ‚areas of Hoboken that dont normally flood could be under many feet of water, so residents need to prepare now and be ready to move their vehicles to higher ground or out of town if necessary. We will continue to monitor the situation as the storm progresses, and if conditions warrant it, will call for an evacuation, but at this time we are asking residents with family or friends in the area or the ability to stay elsewhere to consider leaving town early for the weekend. This is a threat that residents must take seriously.‚t
    >

  31. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Definately packing some extra bags with ice.

  32. NJCoast says:

    I’ve evacuated my supply of Grey Goose, olives, martini shaker and glasses from my beach cabana. Everything else c’est la vie.

  33. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Already have a generator going to be hooked up to the water pump on the well other than that getting ice and beer.

  34. Libtard at home (new refrigerator broke) says:

    Storm is predicted to hit around here noon on Sunday. There is now less than a 1 in 4 chance it’s even a category 1 storm and even a 1 in 3 chance that it won’t even be a tropical storm meaning that it will have winds less than 39 mph. Zimmer is a dork. There is a 1 in 19 chance it will be a Category 2 storm when it gets to Hoboken. My guess is that he’s a Wakefern insider.

  35. Outofstater says:

    Being prepared for a hurricane means you’re prepared for other things too – ice storm, power blackout, whatever. Water, non-perishable food, flashlights, batteries, radio, first aid kit, chocolate, bourbon. It’s all good.

  36. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Zimmers doing the right thing – CYA in case things go bad so you can point to it later. End of day I agree that it’ll likely not even be a Cat 1 by the time it reaches Hoboken.

  37. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    I am going to download some Scorpions off of I-tunes though.

  38. homeboken says:

    I agree that the winds will likely be subdued in the NYC area, but as it relates to Hoboken, I think the mayor was right to ask people to leave and wouldn’t be surprised if an evacuation is called. The city of Hoboken will flood, it is only a question of how severe the flooding will be.

  39. nj escapee says:

    Hurricane Irene: Category 3 Storm Aims for East Coast, Lashes Bahamas

    By LINSEY DAVIS, MATT GUTMAN (@mattgutmanABC) and JESSICA HOPPER (@jesshop23)
    Aug. 25, 2011
    Hurricane Irene’s destructive fury to is aimed directly at the Carolinas, but it is expected to then churn its way up the East Coast battering cities and towns as far north as Boston.

    “This one’s going to affect everybody as it goes up the coast. We don’t see it moving far out to sea and skipping a few of the places that in the past it had skipped,” National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read said.

    It is expected to be the worst storm to hit the East Coast of the United States in at least 20 years, forecasters say.

    The Category 3 storm is currently moving over the northwestern Bahamas sustaining winds as high as 115 mph with even higher gusts.

    Overnight, the slow moving storm lashed the Bahamas, uprooting trees, shattering glass and leaving much of the southeastern islands without power.

    As the storm clears the island and continues over the warm water of the Atlantic, its wind speed is expected to strengthen and the size of the storm could increase to a category 4 with wind speeds of at least 131 mph.

    Based on its current path, Irene could hit Cape Hatteras, N.C., by Friday night and into the Mid-Atlantic by Saturday night onto Sunday morning. It will weaken somewhat as it claws its way up the hit coast, but is expected to be still packing winds of 50 to 70 mph when it reaches New York City and Boston. It is expected to dump 6 to 12 inches of rain on the Jersey shore, Long Island, Massachusetts and Connecticut.

  40. Libtard at home (new refrigerator broke) says:

    11am update out. Very slight increase in prior numbers. Still no biggie for the inland.

  41. chicagofinance says:

    Brainwashing U
    By ROBERT SHIBLEY

    Parents sending children off to college for the first time, beware: Their “freshman orientation” is all too likely to include being herded through a “tunnel of oppression” to learn about the evils of “white privilege,” being lectured about how they’re part of a “rape culture” or being forced to discuss their sexual identities with complete strangers — before they even meet their first professor.

    That’s right: For all we hear about faculty ideological or political bias, campus administrators are often worse when it comes to brainwashing students.

    Consider the shocking account from a student trained to be a dorm supervisor — a resident adviser, or RA — at DePauw University in Indiana. One of her first duties last fall was to lead her new students through a house decorated as a “Tunnel of Oppression,” where supposedly “realistic” demonstrations in each room taught lessons such as how religious parents hate their gay children, Muslims would find no friends on a predominantly non-Muslim campus and overweight women suffer from eating disorders.

    Indeed, in her training to become an RA, “We were told that ‘human’ was not a suitable identity, but that instead we were first ‘black,’ ‘white,’ or ‘Asian’; ‘male’ or ‘female’; … ‘heterosexual’ or ‘queer.’ We were forced to act like bigots and spout off stereotypes while being told that that was what we were really thinking deep down.” Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. must be spinning in his grave.

    Unsurprisingly, she turned down the school’s offer to be an RA this year — she’d rather find another job.

    DePauw is no rare case. At least 96 colleges across the country have run similar “tunnel of oppression” programs in the last few years.

    Perhaps the most infamous re-education program was the University of Delaware’s: Every single student in the dorms endured an Orwellian “treatment” (the school’s word) program to expunge supposedly incorrect beliefs. Delaware demanded that its RAs ask intrusive questions about students’ sexual identity and write reports about their responses while lecturing students on environmentalism and telling them that “citizenship” required them to recognize that “systemic oppression exists in our society.”

    The “treatment” was shut down a few years back after a faculty whistle-blower turned materials for the program over to the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education (where I now work), which publicized the outrage. But a series of “Residential Curriculum Institutes” started by those in charge of the Delaware program continues to this day.

    And the same spirit infects much of American higher education. In New York, Hamilton College last fall ordered all first-year men to attend a “She Fears You” presentation, designed to get them to acknowledge their personal complicity (after just a month on campus!) in Hamilton’s “rape culture” and to change their “rape-supportive” beliefs and attitudes. Not coincidentally, the program’s presenter is a speaker at this year’s Residential Curriculum Institute.

    Did Hamilton warn incoming female students of the campus “rape culture” before it took their tuition? I doubt it. But publicity did force administrators to make the seminar optional — just minutes before it started.

    How many other schools host similar events that no one off campus ever hears about?

    How to fight this indoctrination? First, warn your children or grandchildren about it — and remind them that every public college (and most private colleges) must leave students free to make up their own minds on such controversial ideas as “all white people are racists” or “all men are responsible for rape.” College is supposed to teach you how to think, not what you must think.

    And, for the many students who do go through a creepy orientation program, please save any documents you’re given on the program and tell us about it at FIRE (thefire.org).

    Justice Louis Brandeis famously opined that sunlight is the best disinfectant. If students go into orientation with their eyes open and a willingness to alert outsiders, we can hope to purge the infection of thought reform on America’s campuses.

    Robert Shibley is senior vice president at the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education..

  42. chicagofinance says:

    HEHEHE do you remember the flood tomatoes?

  43. chicagofinance says:

    Also the floating toilet seat?

  44. Double Down says:

    Sounds like a real mess on the way…

    http://www.newjerseyweather.com

    8.25.2011…2:30AM Extended discussion time…We almost never start hyping big weather events 7 days beforehand unless they truly mean business. This happens to be one of them. A truly devastating scenario appears to be slowly unfolding over our area for the next 4 days. But mostly on Saturday & Sunday. First off, Today’s chance for strong to severe storms : A strong cold front will swing through our area today and trigger some strong to severe storms. (Mostly unrelated to Irene) An inch or 2 of rain is possible with the strongest of cells. The front will then begin to stall out early on Friday morning. Moisture convergence from Irene could then begin indirectly affecting us on Friday & Saturday with more showers / storms and some possible flash flooding as it interacts with the stalled out front. It’s important to remember that the main core of Hurricane Irene will not affect us until Saturday Night and Sunday. But even these rains will exasperate the flooding situation.

    Now to Irene : This will probably end up going down as a ‘once in a century’ type of storm when everything is done and over. Even the specific track it’s taken so far is highly unusual. There have been no more eastward progressions with most of the computer models all day long. In fact they’ve been tracking back westward for 3 runs straight. This puts us back in the worst case scenario department. An inland track would also mean bigger problems with coastal flooding and beach erosion. Which is where we appear to be at the moment. There’s also a new moon this upcoming weekend , which will further aggravate coastal flooding with above normal astronomical high tides.

    If there’s a small speck of good news, the more westward the track, the more inland Hurricane Irene stays over land before reaching us. Which would mean wind gusts not being quite as strong. But wind gusts of over 60 MPH are still expected over a large part of the area on Sunday.

    Why Devastating?

    #1 , We’ve had above normal rainfall all month… Rivers and streams are already running at above normal levels. Many could barely handle 2 inches of rain right now without going over flood stage. Yet, were expecting to get 5 to 10 inches of rain. (image below) If this verifies, it’ll mean the flooding will be worse than in ’99 with Hurricane Floyd.

    #2, The ground is already saturated from all our recent rains , which means it won’t take much wind now to down trees & power lines. If the current track holds true we’re expecting winds of over 60 MPH.

    #3 Coastal Flooding : As mentioned above , higher than normal astronomical tides are already expected this upcoming weekend because of a new moon. Current track has Hurricane Irene coming in at an unfavorable angle which would keep the onshore flow persistent….causing moderate to severe coastal flooding. Significant beach erosion, high surf, and dangerous rip currents could begin as early as late Friday.

  45. Shore Guy says:

    Points to bear in mind:

    The exact path of Irene (with respect to NJ) will not be clear for a couple days.

    Once it is clear, there will be insufficient time to prepare properly.

    The strongest winds and greatest surge is in the north-east quadrant of the storm. Thus, if the eye stays offshore, the worst is going to be west of us, but couls hammer LI, RI, the Cape, etc. If the eye comes up Egg Harbor and the Barnegat Bay, well, some of the McMansions-by-the-sea, which have replaced what used to be a typical shore house not too many years ago, may no longer dot the dune line.

    The speed of the storm is important, whether it is Cat I, a tropical storm, or a tropical depression, as the slower a storm moves themore the damage.

    The greatest damage in NJ may well be from storm surge and rain and not from wind. Right now, the storm surge is, I have heard, something on the order of 12-15 feet. If those numbers hold and the storm hits during high tide, it could get ugly west of 71. Bear in mind, the Surge is the rise in local sea level, and does not count the waves riding on top of the surge. Even just 5′ waves, on top of a 15′ surge at high tide, will touch many homes that never expected to have a problem, especially if 10″ of rain falls throughout the storm. Heck, Rt. 35 in the Lawrence Harbor/ Keyport area floods with an inch or two of rain falling in a short time.

    One last thing, in flooding, beware of electricity.

  46. Shore Guy says:

    Sea Bright, Monmouth Beach, Keansburg, and Union Beach will be interesting places this weekend.

  47. Shore Guy says:

    What doubledown said.

  48. Shore Guy says:

    Lookie what we taught Virginia:

    The Virginian-Pilot
    © October 3, 2010

    When patching together the current two-year state budget, lawmakers decided to put off $620 million in contributions to the pension fund for government employees and teachers. They promised to pay off that debt plus interest with 10 annual installments of $74 million starting in 2013.

    That doesn’t seem like such a big deal given the state’s annual budget of $15 billion. But the bill coming due when Gov. Bob McDonnell and legislators start putting together a new budget for 2013 will be much larger.

    They’ve promised to start paying regular pension rates in that year, rather than the artificially low contributions they’re making now. The money needed to return to a normal payment schedule will far exceed the debt payments.
    snip

    http://hamptonroads.com/2010/10/pension-bill-will-come-due

  49. Shore Guy says:

    A headline worthy of John. The link will not pass moderation muster:

    5 questions to ask before having peni$ surgery

    By Elizabeth Cohen, CNN Senior Medical Correspondent

    August 25, 2011 7:24 a.m. EDT

  50. nj escapee says:

    Hurricane Irene forecast shifts west, impacts on N.J. could be severe

    http://www.nj.com/weather-guy/index.ssf/2011/08/hurricane_irene_forecast_shift.html

    State and National Weather Service officials are urging New Jersey residents to prepare for Hurricane Irene now, as several factors could align to make the impacts of the approaching cyclone potentially disastrous for New Jersey.

    It’s important to note we are still days away from Irene, which was packing 115 mile per hour winds this morning as it swirled through the Bahamas, making its closest approach to the state and forecasts could still change. But as of this morning, forecasts have Irene tracking within miles of the New Jersey coast as a hurricane Sunday (see interactive map below), and the impacts of the storm statewide could be severe.

    “Everyone should be preparing for this storm as now is the time. Have a plan in place,” wrote Dean Iovino and Michael Gorse, meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, in their morning forecast discussion. “Everything remains on the table with this hurricane, which includes widespread damaging winds, torrential rain, coastal flooding, dangerous rip currents/waves and beach erosion.”

    Current forecast guidance suggests Hurricane Irene will turn northward today and tomorrow as it approaches the North Carolina coast. The National Hurricane Center said it appears a trough will form along the east coast, providing an alleyway for the cyclone to travel northward rather than curl out to sea.

    Hurricane Watches were issued along the North Carolina coast this morning, and tropical storm watches extend further south along South Carolina and Georgia. At this time, it appears the greatest impacts from Irene would be felt in New Jersey overnight Saturday through about midday Sunday, according to NWS Mount Holly.

    A number of other factors play into Irene’s impact on New Jersey. According to New Jersey state climatologist at Rutgers University David Robinson, New Jersey’s statewide average for rainfall this month is already more than double what it typically is, while some towns in the state appear to have already tripled their average August rainfall.

    HO/AFP/Getty ImagesA satellite image of Hurricane Irene as it moves over the Bahamas.
    As a result, the soil is already fairly saturated, leaving river levels above average and making it easier for trees to be uprooted by high winds. In southern New Jersey, among the hardest hit by August rains, several dams failed during a storm two weeks ago, prompting inspections of dozens of others in the region.

    To make matters worse, a storm system is expected to bring heavy rains, and perhaps flash flooding, to parts of the state today – which would only exacerbate existing conditions ahead of Irene.

    Along the coast, the storm is set to coincide with a new moon, meaning that high tides will already be above normal levels. This could make any coastal flooding impacts of Irene more severe.

    State officials have been monitoring the storm and are urging New Jersey residents to prepare for the worst now.

    “We’re telling people, ‘ listen, take today and tomorrow to prepare. Don’t wait.’ Have a full tank of gas, plenty of food in the house, blankets and clothes in your car. Make sure you’re prepared just in case,” said state police Sgt. Brian Polite, noting evacuation plans, should they be necessary are in place and ready to be activated. “Right now, we’re watching, waiting and getting ready.”

  51. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Chi,

    In 2007 there was a floating Port-o-potty at the construction site at 1st and harrison.

  52. Quincy says:

    wooow, partiality your things through Distressed homes are the place of traffic entrepot | Unaccustomed Jersey Substantive Order

  53. Nicholas says:

    I would seriously reconsider any vacay that puts you on the coast this weekend. Break out the board games and stay at home with your hurricane goods.

  54. gary says:

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Fixed mortgage rates edged up this week from their lowest levels in decades.

    Buy now or be priced out forever.

  55. schabadoo says:

    “all white people are racists” or “all men are responsible for rape.”

    White men…it’s good to see someone is looking out for this maligned group.

  56. JCer says:

    This storm is eerily similar to the 1821 Norfolk Long Island storm, which was the last storm to make land fall over NJ. When I started looking at the projected path it seems it will follow the track of that storm closely, with that storm the flooding was bad all of lower Manhattan was under water and this was at low tide, now keep in mind when this storm is scheduled to hit at high tide, a slightly higher tide than usual, at a time when the river is at a higher level than usual, this has all of the hallmarks of a Katrina like situation. If you live in a low lying area or are by the coast I think within the next few days you’d best head to higher ground, and be prepared to be trapped for at least a few days. Cat 1 or 2 hitting NYC will be a flooding nightmare.

  57. Libtard at home (new refrigerator broke) says:

    I agree JC. The issue is the water and not the winds. Inland should be spared, besides flooding. I doubt there will be widespread power outages.

  58. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    “We almost never start hyping big weather events 7 days beforehand unless they truly mean business”

    Yeah good one. That’s like “we don’t like a juicy sex scandal”.

  59. Libtard in the City says:

    Now where are there some black men that I could rape?

  60. gary says:

    The latest just in: Hurricane Irene to strengthen into a Category 5 storm and the eye will pass over River Edge at 2:00 PM on Sunday. All residents of prestigious towns in Bergen County are strongly urged to rescue stranded Unicorns, bring them indoors and if needed, use unicorn skittle “deposits” to feed children and the elderly.

  61. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (59) slab

    Just after I graduated, th RLFs on campus held an art show. One exhibit was titled “potential r@pists on campus”

    It was a list of every male student. Needless to say, it caused a stir but the sponsors did not yield or qualify their view.

    That’s the mindset you appear to be defending.

  62. evildoc says:

    Geez,

    AFTER a chat from Da Prez, Buffet “invests” 5 billion in BOA. Guess the fix is in.

    And now Da Prez “mulls” gov’t mortgage refinancing for “millions who need it”.

    Once again, anyone frugal, living within means, saving, not in debt to eyeballs… screwed.

    Charming society this is.

  63. Libtard in the City says:

    When I was in a public Junior High School in East Brunswick the teachers went on strike which was against the law too. I suppose all public schools should be shut down because of this. I would not expect educators to use deceptive tactics to make their point. Or would I? What is Montclair afraid of?

  64. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (64) gary,

    Not to worry. Unicorns can emit a protective dome from their horns. All is well.

  65. Libtard in the City says:

    Sorry ’bout that. Arguing with some progressives on Patch.

  66. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (57) nick,

    Working on it. Told the wife not to send the lease.

  67. chicagofinance says:

    LINK SCREWED UP FORGET IT
    chicagofinance says:
    August 25, 2011 at 12:23 pm
    RE: Irene…about the most helpful thing I’ve seen in a while….

  68. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    NJ declares state of emergency.

  69. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (70) lib,

    I like to ask them pointed questions about their selected views, compare the answers to the DSA manifesto, and send it back with an application to join.

    Drives em nuts.

  70. JCer says:

    Wind could be a problem as well, but given it will likely be over land I see flooding as the greater risk, most of our marshy coastline should be evacuated tomorrow if the track looks the same. Also Cat 1 or 2 storm, even a serious tropical storm puts Lower Manhattan, Jersey City, Hoboken, etc under 7 or 8 ft of water.

  71. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Maybe if we do something stupid longer it might start working:

    Price Discovery Era Coming To An End As Spain, France, Belgium, Greece Extend Short Selling Ban “Due To Market Conditions” (Update: And Italy)

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/price-discovery-era-coming-end-spain-france-belgium-greece-extend-short-selling-ban-due-market-

  72. Dan says:

    Once the Unicorns are done protecting River Dell from the storm, they’re going to attack the editors of this monstrous article, which heaven forbid, puts Unicorn High barely in the top 100 high schools in NJ…………

    http://b3.caspio.com/dp.asp?appSession=548125729800929&RecordID=&PageID=2&PrevPageID=2&cpipage=2&CPISortType=asc&CPIorderBy=Inside_Jersey_Calculated_Score

  73. Al Mossberg says:

    This hurricane has my butt cheeks squeezing together. Looks like the path adjusted back to the west again.

    Check out this track.

    http://www.weather.com/weather/hurricanecentral/tracker

  74. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    For this not being 2008 it sure seems a lot like 2008.

  75. schabadoo says:

    That’s the mindset you appear to be defending.

    I’m impressed they were able to persevere in the face of that art piece…

  76. Al Mossberg says:

    Im not evacuating sh_t. Im going to pretend I live in New Orleans and beg for help on my roof.

  77. Al Mossberg says:

    35.

    Pain,

    I have my off grid solar ready to go. Going to hook up my back up batteries to the chargers tonight. Its enough to run my fridge and keep the cell phones charged for about 3 days.

  78. Al Mossberg says:

    49,

    Shore,

    “Keansburg”

    Better buy an extra box of shot gun shells.

  79. chicagofinance says:

    twc_hurricane:
    New Jersey Gov. Christie is considering mandatory evacuations and is asking people not to go to the Jersey Shore this weekend. [via Twitter]

    Thursday August 25, 2011 12:33

  80. Outofstater says:

    #61 Lib – Just curious – why do you think there won’t be widespread power outages? I think there might be because the ground is saturated and it won’t take much wind to knock trees over into the power lines. Are most of the lines underground in NJ? (It’s been a long time since I lived there.)

  81. nj escapee says:

    Outofstater, alot of the older areas in jersey still have overhead power lines.

  82. Al Mossberg says:

    84,

    Fat Boy can kiss my ass. Im not going anywhere

  83. Outofstater says:

    Christie just asked all shore residents from Sandy Hook to Cape May to evacuate within the next 24 hrs.

  84. yo'me says:

    Is it time to buy financials? Sector is up while others in red

  85. ditto says:

    They should evacuate New Jersey period.
    Nothing to do with the hurricane.

    So as for re-education – I hope they provide a list of everyone attending college, with pictures, entitled “potential murderers”

  86. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    “So as for re-education – I hope they provide a list of everyone attending college, with pictures, entitled “potential murderers””

    You, my friend, have obviously never been to a train town.

  87. Anon E. Moose says:

    Lib [63];

    Now where are there some black men that I could rape?

    Jim: Oh, boys! Lookee what I got heyuh.
    Bart: Hey, where the white women at?

  88. Confused in NJ says:

    Maxwell Smart had the Cone of Silence, Christie has the Hurricane Cone of Death approaching NJ. Looks like Scranton PA is outside the Cone of Death with regular rain.

  89. Shore Guy says:

    How is he defining the “Shore”?

  90. BC Bob says:

    Evil [67],

    Yep. Must be one helluva mortgage modification plan to be rolled out very soon. Warren is the ultimate insider. Last time, after his GS purchase, FASB capitulated.

    Forget about Ben and QE3, O will claim that its time to bailout those who should never have received a loan from Day 1. Underwater? No problem. We are experts at committing resources to past failed policies and will continue to flush new capital down the hole. However, great re-election fodder.

  91. I have to remember to check this blog first thing in the morning.

  92. JCer says:

    [95] BC, Buffet is always called in to invest with a closed door promise of it being worth his while. The Prez wants people to have faith in BOA and a 5 billion dollar buffet investment does just that.

  93. Al Mossberg says:

    95,

    Bob,

    You know Gary isnt going to be very pleased if that loser refi program gets rolled out. He might get put on one of the domestic terrorist lists like I am.

  94. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Faith is what they want but good luck with that one. BAC is in trouble. You can’t change all the non-performing mortgages they got from Countrywide. $5B is a drop in the bucket.

    Gubmint’s yet to put out a mortgage modification program that has worked and they never will because half the people whose loans they modify end up back in the crapper within 12-16 months.

    Even if they push through the fraudclosure settlement BAC is still doomed.

    Clot is right – it’s too late, we’re all doomed.

  95. Al Mossberg says:

    I have these 100 ft + tall trees next to my house. Around 30 of them. I think they have my doom stored in their trunks.

  96. Al Mossberg says:

    99,

    They cant pay the motha f_ckin mortgage. Let is collapse. I know a guy that runs a mortgage dept for BofA. He plainly admits that its all about pushing out mortgages as fast as possible. Thats all its about.

    He was also pulling in >500k at age 25. I picked the wrong career.

  97. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    They can increase the size of the mortgage mod/refi program but it still won’t change anything. Person doesn’t have a job how they going to pay the mortgage? If they have a part-time/temp job how are they going to pay the mortgage? Home prices keep dropping they are back underwater. Do they get to refi again? If they don’t they go back to paying the credit cards and not paying the mortgage and live payment free.

    Obama would be better off just gathering up $100B and burning it in public.

  98. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [80] schab,

    “I’m impressed they were able to persevere in the face of that art piece”

    I figured you would be.

  99. Al Mossberg says:

    Mother f_ckerz are going to hike margins on gold again! Get the truck ready.

  100. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Pretty interesting re the margin hikes on gold. Wonder what it means for Bergabe’s speech tomorrow?

  101. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [102] relo

    Should this get widely reported, it will cripple state 529 plans. No one in their right mind will invest in a plan when the state can simply make it disappear later.

    And forget the promise that you lock in state univ. tuition rates when you invest: “Oh sure, we guaranteed your tuition would be $X, but we never said anything about fees.” At my alma mater, the legislature restricted tuition hikes, but the University simply raised fees until they were higher than the tuition.

  102. prtraders2000 says:

    Swells to peak out Sunday @ just over 24ft.

    http://www.swellinfo.com/surf-forecast/monmouth-new-jersey.html

    I’m hoping that my windsurfing window of 20 – 25 kts happens during daylight.

  103. BC Bob says:

    “Obama would be better off just gathering up $100B and burning it in public.”

    He,

    Nothing more than a $100B re-election slush fund as we continue to slide down the slope of hope.

  104. Al Mossberg says:

    The CME is blowing its load. Could they be more obvious? The g_v could be a little more artful in their manipulation. This is in your face corporate facism.

  105. BC Bob says:

    Gold margins;

    The bull has been driven by the physical, not paper, market. Margins could be raised to 100% cash. It won’t make a difference. All they are doing is allowing the big cash buyers to come in and buy at more attractive prices. Raise margins, blow out the weak.

  106. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    In my case, I attribute this to stockpiling ahead of dollar devaluation and sin tax hikes:

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/44267783/

  107. yo'me says:

    ‘proposal would allow millions of homeowners with government-backed mortgages to refinance them at today’s lower interest rates, about 4 percent, according to two people briefed on the administration’s discussions who asked not to be identified because they were not allowed to talk about the information.

    A wave of refinancing could be a strong stimulus to the economy, because it would lower consumers’ mortgage bills right away and allow them to spend elsewhere. But such a sweeping change could face opposition from the regulator who oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and from investors in government-backed mortgage bonds. ”

    SINCE THIS IS FOR EVERYBODY BIG QUESTION IS :Do they let us refinance at the bloated home value that we are currently paying and just lowering interest on the mortgage payment?
    If it is on current value not too many will be able to refinance

  108. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Fun times.
    “A spokesperson for the mayor of Harrisburg, PA says the municipality could miss a $3.3M bond payment if the city council does not approve a new fiscal plan. A Janney analyst adds to the drama by noting it’s not a sure thing that the state would step in and prevent a default.”

  109. BC Bob says:

    “A wave of refinancing could be a strong stimulus to the economy, because it would lower consumers’ mortgage bills right away and allow them to spend elsewhere.”

    Net effect, nil. The deadbeats are not paying now.

  110. chicagofinance says:

    If you go to the gym more than 4 times a week…..

    Shore Guy says:
    August 25, 2011 at 2:36 pm
    How is he defining the “Shore”?

  111. Shore Guy says:

    “Obama would be better off just gathering up $100B and burning it in public.”

    Just think of the carbon footprint.

  112. nj escapee says:

    Hurricane watch for coast of North Carolina
    Dale Eck, Director of Global Forecast Center, The Weather Channel
    Aug 25, 2011 2:42 pm ET
    HURRICANE IRENE

    – Major Hurricane Irene poses an extraordinary threat and is one that no one has yet experienced from North Carolina to the mid-Atlantic to the Northeast to New England.

    – Irene is a major category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph moving through the Northwest Bahamas.

    – Irene is centered about 610 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and moving NNW at 14 mph.

    – The central and northwest Bahamas continue to be under a hurricane warning,and the hurricane warnings have been discontinue for the southeast Bahams.

    – A hurricane watch is now in effect along the North Carolina coast from Surf City to the Virginia border.

    – A tropical storm watch is in effect from Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina.

    – Irene moves northwest through the Bahamas through tonight.

    – Peak wind gusts so far: George Town 69 mph and Nassau 62 mph.

    – Rainfall of 6 to 10 inches is expected throughout the Bahamas.

    – A dangerous storm surge could raise water levels by 7 to 11 feet in the northwest Bahamas in areas with onshore winds.

    – Outer rain bands from Irene reach eastern Florida today and tonight.

    – Heavy showers may contain wind gusts over 40 mph along with rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour.

    – After moving out of the Bahamas tonight Irene parallels the Southeast coast well offshore Friday.

    – Rain bands occasional lash the coastline from central Florida to North Carolina.

    – Some bands may contain tropical storm force wind gusts.

    – Irene is forecast to weaken slightly as it approaches the North Carolina coast Saturday.

    – It could still be a major hurricane causing extreme impacts to eastern North Carolina later Friday night and Saturday.

    – Winds over 100 mph, torrential rainfall, ocean and sound flooding and a damaging storm surge are expected on the Outer Banks and western shores of the sounds.

    – Hurricane force winds could be felt over the mainland almost to I-95.

    – Heavy rainfall is possible as far west as central North Carolina and north-central South Carolina through Saturday afternoon.

    – There has been a slight shift in the forecast beyond Saturday.

    – It now appears Irene may hug the coastline potentially making a landfall not too far east of New York City Sunday evening.

    – This new track means more people could have catastrophic impacts from Irene in the Northeast beginning Saturday night in southern Virginia and lasting into Monday in New England.

    – Even though Irene should weaken some it will still bring hurricane force winds, extreme rainfall, significant coastal flooding and a tornado threat.

    – Irene should be hitting the Northeast near the new moon when tides will be higher before adding Irene’s surge and wave action.

    – Heavy rain could track as far west as western Virginia, western Maryland, central Pennsylvania and central and western New York.

    – Widespread wind damage and power outages are likely throughout the Northeast.

  113. Barbara says:

    78.
    Al, amazing that it would still be a TS up in Labrador.

  114. yo'me says:

    It looks like the plan targets the people that are current and have been good in paying their mortgage.This is not going to help people that will not be able to pay their mortgage in the first place.

  115. Barbara says:

    Well, this is going to make Tuesdays move in interesting. What happens if the new house experiences damages over the weekend? Owners are moving overseas. Time to make some phone calls…

  116. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Dale Eck, Director of Global Forecast Center, The Weather Channel = Drama King

  117. x-everything says:

    watch this video regarding the US national debt…we’re all screwed no matter what we do

    Brother, Can You Spare A Trillion?: Government Gone Wild!
    http://www.youtube.com/embed/VtVbUmcQSuk

  118. Barbara says:

    two kids, no power, toys already in storage….Lord have mercy…

  119. Shore Guy says:

    “Swells to peak out Sunday @ just over 24ft. ”

    Lets add that 24 to an unusually-high high tide and a, hummm, say 12′ storm surge. OG may have the Great Indor Salt Water Pool, instead of Great Auditorium, before this is all over.

  120. Barbara says:

    x-everything
    if we are all screwed, then none of us are screwed. The reset button built in.

  121. Dan says:

    So I’m current on my mortgage but I’m not in some suck up union paying tribute to Obama and am not a minority or gay. Can I still get a mortgage mod?

  122. nj escapee says:

    I remember back in ’05 when the Weather Channel was hanging around the LaConcha during that string of storms. Their fear mongering chased away a lot of tourists.

  123. Al Mossberg says:

    128.

    Dan,

    No. You are required to pay for everyone. This is Marxism 101. Where have you been?

  124. Shore Guy says:

    http://www.terraserver.com/view.asp?cx=584880&cy=4451989&mpp=1.5&proj=32618&pic=map&prov=-1&stac=-1&ovrl=-1&vic=

    Most of Belmar seems to be around 15′ above sea level. A 15′ storm surge might not be good for D’Jais. Fuggedabout the extra wave height.

  125. NJGator says:

    These current Weather Channel people all suck. Not a single one of them is John Hope.

  126. Barbara says:

    Damn, I hope Cookman Ave is ok. I want a Danish mod desk from Billy’s place.

  127. Shore Guy says:

    “potentially making a landfall not too far east of New York City Sunday evening.”

    I bet Bernie Nadoff is glad he sold his Hampton home.

  128. Anon E. Moose says:

    Title Post:

    The reasons that distress sales are affecting the market is not that they are cheap. They’ve always been cheap. It’s that in the past there were so many fewer of them, particularly higher-value properties. Supply and demand as we know it is a phenomenon of free-market economics. The market is free if the participants can choose whether or not to engage in an exchange. Buyers can choose between offerings, and ceteris paribus, will choose the lower priced offering.

    Specifically, it used to be that a foreclsoure selling 30% cheaper didn’t really matter to the traditional seller if there isn’t but one or two in a reasonable proximity, or with comparable characteristics. Now, there’s plenty of distressed housing in all the best of neighborhoods. They are currently a viable alternative to sellers and their wishing prices, which is why sellers have to deal with them.

  129. Shore Guy says:

    Barbara,

    If I remember correctly from the map, the Stone Pony is around 15′ as well, and there is not much, if any, incline working back to Main St. The problem with Cookman is Wesley Lake. It would not take much for the ocean to flow right into the lake, in effect producing a westward arm pushing just about to the railroad tracks before the waves start to curl. Maybe they can deliver today.

  130. Shore Guy says:

    Madoff, even

  131. JCer says:

    Gator the weather channel sucks, they are never right about anything, NWS is so much better, as you get closer to the event their predictions are usually pretty accurate. A day before the strike is supposed to happen 95% chance their prediction is good, TWC is a joke.

  132. NJGator says:

    Loyal to the end…

    Dog mourns at casket of fallen Navy SEAL
    Labrador retriever Hawkeye lies down with a sigh at funeral of his owner

    Navy SEAL Jon Tumilson lay in a coffin, draped in an American flag, in front of a tearful audience mourning his death in Afghanistan. Soon an old friend appeared, and like a fellow soldier on a battlefield, his loyal dog refused to leave him behind.
    Tumilson’s Labrador retriever, Hawkeye, was photographed lying by Tumilson’s casket in a heart-wrenching image taken at the funeral service in Tumilson’s hometown of Rockford, Iowa, earlier this week. Hawkeye walked up to the casket at the beginning of the service and then dropped down with a heaving sigh as about 1,500 mourners witnessed a dog accompanying his master until the end, reported CBS.

    http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/44271018/ns/today-today_pets_and_animals/t/dog-mourns-casket-fallen-navy-seal/

  133. Anon E. Moose says:

    Gator [132];

    Paul Kocin, who used to be the winter storm expert at Weather Channel, went back to the Nat’l Weather Svc. Something to be said for a government job if it beats the pay and bennies of ‘show biz’ — as demonstrated by someone who worked in both.

  134. homeboken says:

    139 – I challenge anyone to read that article and watch the vid without getting misty eyed.

  135. Al Mossberg says:

    Sea Bright will be the worst. The only standing between the Atlantic and the Navesink is a 10 ft high sea wall.

  136. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [141], boken

    “Gentlemen of the jury, a man’s dog stands by him in prosperity and poverty, in health and sickness. He will sleep on the cold ground, where the wintry winds blow, and the snow drives fiercely, if only he can be near his master’s side. He will kiss the hand that has no food to offer; he will lick the wounds and sores that come in encounter with the roughness of the world. He guards the sleep of his pauper master as if he were a prince. When all other friends desert, he remains. When riches take wings and reputation falls to pieces, he is as constant in his love as the sun in its journey through the heavens.

    “If fortune drives the master forth an outcast in the world, friendless and homeless, the faithful dog asks no higher privilege than that of accompanying him to guard against danger, to fight against his enemies. And when the last scene of all comes, and death takes the master in its embrace, and his body is laid away in the cold ground, no matter if all other friends pursue their way, there by his graveside will the noble dog be found, his head between his paws, his eyes sad but open in alert watchfulness, faithful and true even to death.”

    George Graham Vest, closing argument, Burden v. Hornsby, (M0. Civ., 1870)

  137. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [143] redux

    Vest’s closing argument (only part of which was preserved), is oft credited for inspiring the iconic phrase “man’s best friend.”

  138. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [144] redux

    [getting misty here. sniff]

  139. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Yeah big downside 0f this hurricane is my dog will be spending most of the time laying near the bath tub shaking- freaked out from the thunder.

  140. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [144] redux

    I defy any man (except JJ–there’s no sex so no reason for him to be passionate about it) to read Vest’s entire soliliquy without his voice cracking.

    http://www.almostheaven-golden-retriever-rescue.org/old-drum.html

  141. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    My dog was trying to jump into my lap and give me kisses while I was on the phone just now. Little does she know I was on the phone to the kennel.

    They have space over Labor Day. So we are pushing back our travel plans, esp. since there are unconfirmed reports that OCMD will be under mandatory evac. tomorrow.

  142. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Do you think this will impact the price of diamonds?

    Surprise! Alien Planet Made of Diamond Discovered

    http://news.yahoo.com/surprise-alien-planet-made-diamond-discovered-181402842.html

  143. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [147] redux

    A quick tour around the internet tells me that a lot of people knew about Vest’s speech and linked it to Tumilson.

  144. Al Mossberg says:

    Im no weatherman but this doesnt look good. NHS much better than the fear mongering weather channel.

    Squeeze your cheeks together gentlemen. This f_cker doesnt wear armor

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152235.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

  145. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    I guarantee you that thing doesn’t hit Manhattan at anything over Cat 1.

  146. Fabius Maximus says:

    I remember the hurricane of 1999. I was offered a hotel room to keep me in the city as I was essential personnel. NYC was being evacuated and at noon and Port Authority was a zoo. By 3:30PM, I bailed and headed home to Hoboken. I could work from there and could always get a cab or bike back into the city. By 3:30pm Port Authority was a ghost town running empty buses. As I got off the bus on Washington St, I felt the cold front pass over. It dropped 20 degrees and started raining 30 seconds later. It was a two hour heavy downpour and that was it. Lower Hoboken flooded as ususal, but other than that it was a non event.
    My only concern for Hoboken is the Ferry terminal. One small surge and that will be overrun as it is the lowest point.
    Good luck with the storm, at the moment I am on my Austerity vacation in Portugal, but I promise to think of you, if I remember
    Clot, my mates missus is a Man U fan so we are heading out on Sunday to watch the game in Figo’s bar.
    http://www.setecafe.com/mainpage.asp?familia=4

  147. Fabius Maximus says:

    #34 (previous thread) Nom

    Posts like that confuse me, I don’t know if you are just manipulating facts to support an argument or if your international tax knowledge is just a little “light”!

  148. chicagofinance says:

    Max: You are thinking Tropical Storm Floyd, and I lived in Hoboken and worked in Basking Ridge at the time. It just didn’t hit Hudson County that hard, but it devastated points west, especially areas west of Summit.

    That was when Bound Brook went underwater, and the low lying wetlands by the Morristown Airport/Jets Complex in Florham Park were filled to the brim with water. I know for a fact I have written the story of driving to work on 24 toward I-287 and just having my jaw drop when I saw water laping up on the shoulder of the highway where there was usually no standing water at all…..and just seeing trees standing in water off into the distance. This storm is stronger and it appears to be more coastal that Floyd, which is bad for the Shore and Hoboken. I think it is because Floyd made landfall further south and was merely a TS for a significant period of time before NJ. Irene appears to be almost entirely a marine event before NJ.

    Fabius Maximus says:
    August 25, 2011 at 5:59 pm
    I remember the hurricane of 1999. I was offered a hotel room to keep me in the city as I was essential personnel. NYC was being evacuated and at noon and Port Authority was a zoo. By 3:30PM, I bailed and headed home to Hoboken. I could work from there and could always get a cab or bike back into the city. By 3:30pm Port Authority was a ghost town running empty buses. As I got off the bus on Washington St, I felt the cold front pass over. It dropped 20 degrees and started raining 30 seconds later. It was a two hour heavy downpour and that was it. Lower Hoboken flooded as ususal, but other than that it was a non event.

  149. chicagofinance says:

    Note…I think the track has shifted ever so slightly to the east, which is good.

  150. chicagofinance says:

    I stand corrected….the eye of the damned thing is now slated to pass by my house by about a mile….going to swing right through Holmdel.

  151. NjescaPee says:

    Nice breeze here along the shore.

  152. Barbara says:

    Shore Guy, that lake is what I was thinking about. Poor Ocean Grove as well. I need to pick the thing out, he deals in vintage wares. Oh well, he’s a savvy guy, hoping he’s got some warehouse space and help.

  153. Shore Guy says:

    149

    Hehe,
    Yea, but try to get a setting for the thing.

  154. BC Bob says:

    “If I remember correctly from the map, the Stone Pony is around 15′ as well”

    Shore,

    Correct me if I’m wrong; 15′, Is that down in Jungleland?

  155. BC Bob says:

    “They have space over Labor Day.”

    Nom,

    Did you say OCMD? If yes, we will have to arrange for a gtg at a bar on the boardwalk. I will be the guy with a BC football shirt, a Yankee hat and the best looking blonde (female) on the beach.

  156. freedy says:

    whats the line on xanadu falling down?

  157. BC Bob says:

    From the NYT, Jackson Hole, 2009;

    “Central bankers from around the world expressed growing confidence on Friday that the worst of the financial crisis was over and that a global economic recovery was beginning to take shape…

    Speaking to central bankers and economists at the Fed’s annual retreat here in Grand Teton National Park, Mr. Bernanke echoed the growing relief among European and Asian central bankers that their own economies had already started to rebound.”

  158. BC Bob says:

    Juice,

    From the Reckoning;

    Conversation with a Dublin cab driver:

    “You Americans are lucky, sure you are. You can just walk away from a house. If I could do that, I’d be out tomorrow. But here, if you owe money on a mortgage the bank can come after you. You can never get away.

    “I got married about 4 years ago. My wife and I both worked. We had good jobs. We were earning good money. And we believed all that BS about how property would just go up and up forever.

    “So we bought an apartment for 360,000 euros. It was only supposed to be temporary, because we wanted to have a family and we figured we’d get a house after we started having children.

    “Well, we’ve got 2 kids already and another on the way. And we’re still in the apartment. And we can’t move. Because the place is now only worth about 160,000 euros — would you believe it? It’s come down that much. And I can’t make the mortgage payments.

    “My wife lost her job when the trouble began. And now, with all those children she can’t go back to work anyway. And driving a cab isn’t what it used to be. Every time someone loses his job in Dublin, he starts driving a cab. There are empty cabs all over the place. So, I don’t make nearly as much money as I used to. And with my wife not working, I can’t pay the mortgage.

    “So I went to the bank. You know they are all broke. All the banks in Ireland. You’d think they’d like to see an honest homeowner trying to do the right thing.

    “I told them I couldn’t keep up with the payments. I asked them if we could work something out, since the apartment is only worth less than half the mortgage amount. But they wouldn’t even talk to me. I guess they have someone breathing down their neck too.

    “So I just send them half the money I’m supposed to. It’s all I can do. And I figure they won’t kick me out. Not in Ireland. Ireland has a long history with evictions. It used to be that English property owners would evict their poor Irish tenants. So, now eviction is a bad word in Ireland, almost as bad as slavery in America, I guess. The banks — which have all been bailed out by the taxpayers — don’t want to be seen on TV evicting their tenants now. So I guess I’ll just keep sending them half the mortgage payment. I’ll probably be there for a long time.

    “But sooner or later they’ll have to do something. There are 70,000 people in Dublin who aren’t paying their mortgages. And there’s no way they can pay them. The banks are going to have recognize, sooner or later, that they made a mistake lending all that money to us.”

  159. schabadoo says:

    Conversation with a Dublin cab driver:

    Haven’t had to sit thru a lecture about Ireland being the shining example of deregulation and tax cuts in a while…

  160. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [166] boo

    Not everyone has your keen intellect, therefore they must be protected from themselves.

    They borrow too much money, eat too much fatty food, drink and smoke too much, and, most importantly, believe in the wrong things.

    Good thing that there are people like you out there, ready to make sure they do what is best for them.

    Not everyone looks good in brown, but I am sure you can pull that off.

  161. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [162] Bob

    ” I will be the guy with a BC football shirt, a Yankee hat and the best looking blonde (female) on the beach.”

    Little early to be ‘faced, isn’t it? ;-)

    Seriously, we are planning a BNO with an attorney friend and his bud, so drop me a line. nomdeplumenj@gmail.com

  162. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [168] redux

    And I will be the one in my UMass shirt and Red Sox cap, but I am leaving the best looking brunette on the beach at home.

  163. schabadoo says:

    Not everyone has your keen intellect, therefore they must be protected from themselves.

    Was it only 2008 when Ireland was still being heralded as a laissez faire dream? The Laffer Curve in full effect.

  164. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [154] fabius

    “Posts like that confuse me, I don’t know if you are just manipulating facts to support an argument or if your international tax knowledge is just a little “light”!”

    Speaking of light, I was looking for a rejoinder there but haven’t found it yet. Can you help me out? I can’t hit your pitches if you can’t get them to the plate.

  165. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [170] boo,

    Can’t say as I haven’t looked at revenue growth, but I note that the Irish have been loathe to change the tax structure.

    Besides, you are referring to an article about consumer demand and the real estate market (as was I). How you go from point A (boom and bust real estate) to Point F (revenues and tax policy) is a bit vague. In fact, whenever you present a running argument (defining “argument” generously), this cartoon comes to mind:

    http://avionod.wordpress.com/2009/04/06/and-then-a-miracle-happens/

  166. schabadoo says:

    but I note that the Irish have been loathe to change the tax structure

    And when they did, it blew up on them.

    At least Laffer got a book out of it.

  167. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [172] scham,

    “Certainly, that’s what happened in Ireland. Regulators were nowhere to be found during the real estate-centered credit bubble. The Irish Central Bank did not have a history of independence from government and after joining the euro zone contented itself with gathering statistics and issuing currency, according to Morgan Kelly, economist at University College, Dublin. (Kelly’s paper, “The Irish Credit Bubble,” can be read here.) The banking industry also captured government. Kelly notes that politicians and financiers knew each other well in the small nation. The employment boom generated by bank lending—especially in the construction industry—generated a “natural alliance of interests among politicians, developers, and banks,” he writes.”

    So, it is your contention that a pro-growth tax policy caused the foregoing? That is the “enabler” argument. It is the same argument used by folks that want to ban everything from handguns to popcorn. Your argument (I presume it because of your citation) is that aggressive pro-growth tax policy led to rapid growth (some might call this prosperity), which led to easy credit, which led to lax regulation, which led to speculative bubbles, which burst and led to painful economic contraction. So, you posit, the way to prevent such painful economic contraction it to kill it in its infancy, by preventing the factors that would lead to “excessive” growth.

    I pretty much see where you are coming from. I see how your mind works. And I can understand why you hate those that don’t agree with your view of what America should be. Be advised however that history has shown that those who think like you gain traction for awhile, sometimes famously so, but in the end, you find yourself being hung by your heels in the village square.

  168. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [174] schab,

    One of the commenters to the article said it better than I could:

    ” A government that keeps blowing money like a drunk sailor at a brothel on shore leave totally negates any advantages that supply side can bring. To call it one and the same sets up nothing less than a strawman and poor journalism.”

    But do throw out some more snark as a proxy for argument.

  169. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Okay, this is just weird:

    http://ndn.org/sites/default/files/paper/Report%20on%20the%20JCT%20Revenue%20Estimate%20for%20HIA%20and%20Its%20Reprise%20-%20Shapiro-Mathur%20-%20Final%20%20with%20Exec%20Summary%20-%20August%2019%202011.pdf

    http://taxprof.typepad.com/files/132tn0845.pdf

    What we have here is a progressive tax think tank arguing in favor of a repatriation holiday, and a more moderate/conservative publication arguing against (sort of; it acknowledges the revenue gain but said it the last holiday did not create jobs).

    Personally, I think the repatriation holiday, like the payroll tax holiday, is bad tax policy. You encourage boom and bust type behavior to avoid taxes (less so with payroll tax holiday but the premise is the same). Paradoxically, it is the progressives arguing against their own line that repatriation holidays result in income rushing in, then dropping again after the holiday as the corporations start hoarding again for the next holiday.

    Fabius, you fancy yourself an international tax policy expert, what say you?

  170. Schabadoo says:

    I commented on the lack of Ireland the Example talk since it imploded.

    You went straight to Brownshirts.

    Obviously, serious, serious stuff.

  171. Yikes says:

    it’s been awhile, but … found out some good news recently. 3 homes (in a row!) on our block all went up for sale this summer. all 3 are original owners and retiring to the south. at first we were alarmed. but then two of them sold … for more than what we paid in early 2009.

    (one never technically hit the market, as someone in our neighborhood tipped a friend to it, and it was snatched up that quickly. another sat for about 4 weeks. the other guy is asking way 3/4 of a million & won’t budge.)

    we don’t have much paper equity – just going on comps, about $25k, but we did add a pool and re-did a bathroom & the carpets since moving in, so maybe we’ve got more than that.

    we’re the youngest couple in the neighborhood, but both of the new couples are only a few years older than us, so the turnover is pretty cool to watch happen.

    – this is in Bucks County

  172. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [178] boo

    Yes, I did, because I see the tendencies in your examples, comments, and what I believe to be your thought processes that go in a certain direction. Not heavily, mind you, as you are more of a political dilettante. You talk the talk, but I doubt you could walk the walk.

    I don’t expect you to agree with me, nor do I care. As I tell potential adversaries, I don’t have to convince you, I have to convince the guy in the black robe.

    But keep on trying to be Will Hunting. I’ll be Sean.

    “Sean: Thought about what you said to me the other day, about my painting. Stayed up half the night thinking about it. Something occurred to me… fell into a deep peaceful sleep, and haven’t thought about you since. Do you know what occurred to me?
    Will: No.
    Sean: You’re just a kid, you don’t have the faintest idea what you’re talkin’ about. ”

    Good night, time for some peaceful sleep.

  173. schabadoo says:

    But keep on trying to be Will Hunting. I’ll be Sean.

    I do admire someone with a rich fantasy life. Maybe I’ll see you on the first tee at 6am, squeezing in 9 before work.

  174. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [179] wicked

    I was living near Wollaston Beach in Quincy, MA during this storm. Much scarier than The meteorologists were on the air nonstop warning people about it. If they hadn’t, I hesistate to think what would have happened.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Perfect_Storm

    Hurricane Bob hit just a few weeks before this. I remember walking along Wolly beach, watching boats watch up. Not a big deal, I thought. But that probably was why the meteorological community was all over what we called the “No Name Storm” until the movie changed it.

  175. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Well that got butchered. Screw it, I’m going to sleep.

  176. NJCoast says:

    They’re dismantling the Stone Pony outside stage tomorrow. All concerts at the Pony, Wonder Bar, Starland Ballroom for this weekend cancelled.

    I’ll be packing the car up tomorrow, they’re calling for evacuating Allenhurst Saturday afternoon.
    We’ll be at the Beach Club Bar, perched above the beach, until they make us leave.

  177. Shore Guy says:

    BC,

    I always assumed Jungleland was the Upstage.

  178. WickedOrange says:

    after Grim, this guy has the best blog going:

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

    and this kid in AK breaks it down around noon every day.

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Levi32/show.html

  179. Shore Guy says:

    For those not at all concerned with the prospect of Irene hitting the NY area:

    http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/us/2011/08/25/tsr.snow.hurricane.ny.cnn?hpt=hp_c1

  180. Shore Guy says:

    I am supposed to be driving from the Shore to Newark early Monday morning. Something tells me I might not be doing this after all.

  181. Shore Guy says:

    NJC,

    How far are you going for shelter?

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