Housing “…not as bad as some might try to make us believe.”

From HousingWire:

Barclays: Housing may not be as bad as some believe

It is unlikely home prices will drop as much as 17%, but analysts with Barclays Capital evaluated that possibility during a recent analysis of future home prices.

However, the firm noted such a decline is unlikely because the shadow inventory of 4 million to 7 million homes is still not as severe as some expect. The analysts generally use a 7% drop in prices nationwide as the base for their test scenario. BarCap said the market absorbs about 1.5 million homes through distressed liquidations annually.

“Given that most borrowers evicted in a foreclosure process have to go and live somewhere, it makes more sense to look at total excess supply of homes including owner and rental units,” the analysts wrote in a recent report. “Our estimate is that versus the historical norms, there are only a couple of million homes in excess housing inventory that need to be absorbed. Do not get us wrong — we are not presenting a bullish case for housing — all we are saying is that things are bad but not as bad as some might try to make us believe.”

Barclays bolstered its belief that home prices will not experience an extreme decline by saying “contrary to what many believe, the administration can and likely will do things to control a significant downward spiral in housing in the near term.”

If that does occur, Barclays said the move will lead to slower home price growth, while preventing another dip over the next two years.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

125 Responses to Housing “…not as bad as some might try to make us believe.”

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey And Happy Friday

  2. grim says:

    From the Daily Record:

    Bayer to take over Alcatel-Lucent property in Hanover

    Bayer Healthcare LLC will be moving into the long vacant Alcatel-Lucent property on Whippany Road, bringing 2,500 employees and plans to refurbish a main building on the site while adding additional structures and employees in the future, township officials announced Thursday.

    “We’ve worked real hard and are blessed to have a major international pharmaceutical company coming into our township,” said Mayor John T. Sheridan. “It will not only boost the Hanover Township economy, but it will be a boost to the whole region.”

    Bayer had announced in April that it would combine its East Coast business in New Jersey and that the consolidated headquarters would be in Morris County. Bayer’s New Jersey operations currently are in Morris Township, Montville and Wayne.

    If the process is successfully completed, about 2,500 employees, currently working at the other New Jersey sites plus Tarrytown, N.Y., will be based at the Whippany Road site, she said. People are expected to begin moving into the site in 2013, she said.

  3. grim says:

    From the Record:

    NJ home prices likely to drop 3% in 2012, appraiser predicts

    New Jersey home prices will continue to decline in 2012 and will not return to their boom-market peaks until 2020, an appraiser who follows the state market predicted Thursday.

    “While our housing market will likely move back into recovery sometime next year, that recovery is going to be slow-paced,” Jeffrey Otteau of Otteau Valuation Group Inc. in East Brunswick told an audience of real estate agents at a seminar in East Hanover.

    Home values in the state have dropped about 21 percent since 2005 and are likely to drop an additional 3 percent in 2012, said Otteau, who tracks statewide real estate prices. He cited declining incomes, high unemployment, tight mortgage standards and a large number of homeowners unable to pay their mortgages.

    Affluent, suburban markets — especially if they have rail access to New York City — are holding their value better than rural or urban markets, where foreclosures have taken a heavy toll, Otteau said.

    Statewide, there’s a 13-month supply of unsold homes available — meaning that if sales continued at the current pace, it would take that long to sell all the homes currently on the market. Bergen County has the lowest supply in the state, at 10 months, and Morris is just behind it, at 11. Passaic has a 15-month supply. A seven-month supply is considered a balanced market that will result in stable prices, Otteau said.

    Because of the oversupply of homes on the market, Otteau said, buyers expect home values to decline and think, “I need to hedge my bets and pay less, because tomorrow it may be worth less.”

    But price drops are less likely in places where there’s less than six months’ inventory on the market, including Oakland, Glen Rock, Ridgewood and Wyckoff.

  4. grim says:

    From the Philly Inquirer:

    South Jersey home prices have taken big hits

    South Jersey home prices have taken one hard punch to the kidneys after another from the bruising economy.

    Few Burlington, Camden, and Gloucester County communities have held on to the gains achieved from 2005 through the mid-2007 peak of the housing boom, an Econsult Corp. analysis of 376,257 Philadelphia-region sales from April 1, 2005, through June 30, 2011, shows.

    And in all but 17 of the 98 municipalities in these counties, median home prices at the end of this year’s second quarter were less than they were in 2005 – from two or three percentage points in Tabernacle, Collingswood, and East Greenwich, to almost half off where they began in Lindenwold, Magnolia, and Willingboro. (Median is the middle value: Half the homes sold for more; half sold for less.)

    “From the beginning of the boom in 1998 to their peak, house prices rose an average of 80 percent in the South Jersey counties and rose by 77 percent in the Pennsylvania counties covered by our data,” said economist Kevin Gillen, vice president of Econsult, who collected and analyzed the sales data for The Inquirer.

    But since 2007, Gillen said, house prices have fallen by an average 29 percent in those South Jersey counties, while dropping only 18.7 percent in the Pennsylvania suburbs.

    Why have South Jersey prices taken such a hit? According to Gillen:

    Unemployment remains high throughout the state, 9.4 percent vs. Pennsylvania’s 8.2 percent, with the Jersey Shore downturn a contributing factor. As a result, many people can neither afford to pay higher prices for houses nor afford the mortgages they currently have.

    A higher percentage of houses were purchased with subprime or exotic loans, meaning that interest rates, and therefore monthly mortgage payments, adjusted far higher than borrowers could afford to pay.

    Greater density in the three counties means that foreclosures have affected a larger swath of properties, with 84.7 percent of homes suffering devaluation as a result of distressed homes returning to the market, compared with 48.5 percent across the river.

    “So the combination of a larger economic downturn combined with greater overleveraging by homeowners has led to greater price declines in New Jersey,” he said.

  5. 30 year realtor says:

    With regard to Otteau; inventory is down somewhat but mostly due to sellers not re-listing after expiration of listings. Even the markets he cites as as being healthy are experiencing price drops. Houses in need of extensive repair in these communities are selling to investors, not homeowners. These markets are healthier than urban areas, but they are not healthy.

    There are still plenty of suburban areas in North Jersey with extensive inventory, long market times and strong downward pressure on home values. I believe the 3% figure Otteau throws around is nothing more than a number he pulled out of his hat.

  6. Confused in NJ says:

    New Jersey home prices will continue to decline in 2012 and will not return to their boom-market peaks until 2020, an appraiser who follows the state market predicted Thursday

    Interesting, eight years after 2012? Wonder who the new acquirers will be?

  7. grim says:

    Houses in need of extensive repair in these communities are selling to investors, not homeowners.

    Are you saying this is a negative? This is a major positive for these areas. Infill renovation not only raises the value of the property, but raises the value of nearby housing stock as well.

  8. funnelcloud says:

    Housing “not as bad as some try to make us believe” No Worse
    Here we go again with the happy days hoopla

    Good morning Mike TGIF

  9. 30 year realtor says:

    #7 – Not saying investors buying is a negative, it just isn’t a sign of a healthy market. Since I began my career in Bergen County the norm has been users purchasing properties in need of renovation. Historically investors have been unable to compete against user buyers because investors need to make a profit.

  10. nj escapee says:

    Fantasy Fest draws full house
    While Fantasy Fest revelers put the finishing touches on risque costumes and make plans for the island’s biggest party, tourism and lodging officials are happily awaiting their arrival and anticipating full hotels all week….

    http://keysnews.com/node/35362

  11. When did Dick Bove move to Barclay’s?

  12. grim says:

    I think the dynamic has changed somewhat with buyers looking for instant gratification. Most buyers are still easily swayed by even minor upgrades. That said, maybe the reason is that buyers arr much less liquid these days, and it is easier to finance/fund a done and ready home than come up with cash for renovation. Hard enough for buyers to come up with larger downpayments.

    If I had a dime for every client that came to me looking for a “fix-er-upper”.

  13. yo says:

    With homeowners carrying more debt and no savings and no equity to borrow from their homes,how do we expect the future house inventories to be well kept?This is going to get worst as years goes.If investors are buying in a fire sale.How do we expect homes to go up in value?

  14. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Otteau has been wrong before but even if he’s right this time, 3% price drops per year will continue to add up on top of the initial 20% crash.

  15. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Grim, why even attempt to balance the discussion with positive anecdotes? Let’s keep it negative ok? The regulars will not take kindly to this ‘housing not so bad’ stuff… ; ‘ )

  16. Mike says:

    That’s right misery loves company and that’s why were here

  17. Mikeinwaiting aka Dirty Renter says:

    Three % this year 3 % next year but back to 05 levels by 2020. You can’t make this stuff up, Oh yes you can. If this were to occur prices would have to rise over 40 percent in the 7 year period from 13 to 20 in my town (the bubble all over again). What pray-tell would be the catalyst for that, guys a shill.

  18. Mikeinwaiting aka Dirty Renter says:

    Veto (NE), Hi where you been? You are a numbers guy , my 17 seem unreasonable to you or does Otteau.

  19. Mikeinwaiting aka Dirty Renter says:

    PS I am not negative I am ecstatic. I will most likely leaving NJ in 5 years and will continue to rent. (no dog in the hunt) That being said prices need to come down & stay at a level where people can afford to own a home with the ever increasing taxes. This is a good thing.

  20. Extinction before recovery.

  21. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Greetings from a CLE in Conshohocken, PA. Hope my battery holds out.

  22. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Dick Bove changes homes more than I change my motor oil.

  23. 3B says:

    What is the scenario if interest rates rise at some point to 7% or more?

  24. 3B says:

    #5 30 Year: but what so you know you are just a 30 year Realtor!!! And I don’t understand how he can talk about a recovery if prices are still falling.

  25. 3B says:

    #12 If FHA is so widely available, why are people having such difficulty coming up with down payments? Just asking.

  26. 3B says:

    15 The problem with the housing is not so bad belief, is that many of those who are saying it is not so bad, are many of the same who said there was no problem in the first place, even at the height of the bubble, when these so called experts should have seen it. How many times has Mr. Otteau been calling for a recovery in the last 4 years.

    If 30 year is in the trenches of real estate every day, than I put far more far credence in what he says, than some guy at Barclay’s, or Jeff Otteau.

  27. 3B says:

    #13 I am noticing this in the land of Unicorns, lots of unkempt houses, on some of the nicest blocks. I have never seen this before

  28. yo says:

    When Mary Poland-Smith went into real estate 14 years ago, she never imagined that part of her job would involve handing out “cash for keys,” to persuade former home owners or renters to vacate their premises.

    “It did feel uncomfortable in the beginning,” says Poland-Smith, an agent with Better Homes Realty Inc. in Montclair, Va.

    For real estate agents across the country, getting people to move out of their homes without a costly and time-consuming eviction is increasingly part of the job description.

    http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/10/21/8419205-real-estate-agents-learning-fine-art-of-cash-for-keys

  29. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    In my opinion, Jeff Otteau should stick to reporting on the Present and the Very Recent Past. When he starts predicting the future……he’s skating on ice of unknown thickness.

    I would love to see someone put together a list of his Forward-Looking predictions along side a graph of the C-S HPI. Would make for some interesting reading.

  30. JJ says:

    Mary Poland-Smith should have been arrested on a a suitability complaint for selling those houses to those poor shmucks in the first place. Occupy should protest at her house and all active realtors from 2002-2008 and leave the hard working folks on wall st alone.

    yo says:
    October 21, 2011 at 8:46 am
    When Mary Poland-Smith went into real estate 14 years ago, she never imagined that part of her job would involve handing out “cash for keys,” to persuade former home owners or renters to vacate their premises.

  31. The Original NJ Expat says:

    All of these forecasts are moot and worthless if measured in US dollars. My own inclination is that the Fed is trying their damnedest to engineer a ~10% annual real inflation rate, but if it doesn’t result in wage inflation, which it hasn’t, it will all be for naught. Of course the real inflation rate will never be officially reported, that’s a given. To the banks, it doesn’t matter how much a dollar is worth, only that the loans are made good in nominal terms.

  32. 30 year realtor says:

    On the fixer upper issue: Every lender under the sun is pushing renovation loans. Sure these loans require strong qualifications and 20% or more down, with the exception of FHA 203K, but they are out there.

    Since when is buyer’s desire for instant gratification a new phenomenon? If investors can buy em and fix em up, then sell them for a equitable profit, why don’t users want to make instant equity? I’ll answer my own question. There is a crisis of confidence!

    Recently I was pushing a house in Ridgewood on a bunch of different investor clients. Willard School district, 2200 square feet, needed about $125,000 in reno plus soft costs. Projected end value about $590,000. Could have been purchased for $350,000. At the end of the day an investor should have been able to turn a $60 – $70,000 profit. I didn’t sell it, but it did go under contract for over $350,000.

    Why didn’t this house sell to a user? No confidence in the market or future. It is also no longer the cool thing to do.

  33. The Original NJ Expat says:

    #31 – Same goes for the pension funds. Doesn’t matter what a dollar is worth, only that they can fulfill their obligations in nominal terms. We can all end up much poorer than today even if the Dow goes to 30,000.

  34. The Original NJ Expat says:

    Mary Poland-Smith should have been arrested on a a suitability complaint for selling those houses to those poor shmucks in the first place. Occupy should protest at her house and all active realtors from 2002-2008 and leave the hard working folks on wall st alone.

    That wouldn’t be fair unless you also rounded up all the pizza delivery guys who used to be mortgage originators and set up camp on their parent’s lawns too.

  35. JJ says:

    Realtors still are scum, talking to a guy who yesterday sold a lady a 450K house who has 50K income. Said to me she should rent as but not my problem plus I need the commission. Maybe I sell it again as a short sale in three years.

  36. Shore Guy says:

    “Conshohocken”

    Lucky you.

  37. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (37) shore,

    Free CLE credits is worth the drive, even if I have to sit thru FCPA course.

    And I used to live near here so I know how meh it is.

  38. JJ says:

    Can I short an IPO before it happens?

    Name of issuer Groupon, Inc.
    Industry Consumer Cyclicals – Retail
    Security type Class A Common Stock
    Expected size of offering 30,000,000 Shares
    Expected price range $16.00 to $18.00 per share
    Offering type Initial Public Offering
    Distribution by The Issuer
    Expected pricing date 11/03/2011
    Indication of Interest Period 10/21/2011 to 11/02/2011by (4pm EST)

  39. gary says:

    “While our housing market will likely move back into recovery sometime next year, that recovery is going to be slow-paced,” Jeffrey Otteau of Otteau Valuation Group Inc. in East Brunswick told an audience of real estate agents at a seminar in East Hanover.

    Removing one of the fourteen IVs from the victim is not exactly considered a recovery.

  40. Shore Guy says:

    “And I used to live near here so ”

    Okay, then. Drawing on your knowledge of the roads therre and the traffic reports in Philly: don’t let them throw you any curves.

  41. Shore Guy says:

    NJE,

    From the photos http://www.fantasyfest.net/photo-gallery/ , it reminds me of Halloween in Boulder.

  42. Shadow of John says:

    Me and the little woman decided to go on a cruise. Problem is I hate carting all her suitcases with change of clothes for this and change of clothes for that. Who needs the aggrivation. This solves everything. We just need one bag for razor, tootpaste and whatnot. No hassle traveling at its best.

    http://www.cruisenu*de.com/

    you gotta take out the * to make it work.

    I am all about enhancing my skills in every way so I think I will take a body painting class. It might come in handy.

  43. JC says:

    So for those of us who didn’t take out loans to remodel bathrooms and kitchens during the flush years, what do we do now? I’ve already decided to either finish the reface job I started 3 years ago in the kitchen or rip out the base cabinets and replace them with unfinished wood RTAs and paint them myself and do 2-tone…and return to Old Reliable Laminate for the countertops. I’ve given up the idea of gutting the downstairs bathroom and I’m just going to replace the floor and vanity. The upstairs bath is going to have to be gutted, it’s beyond hope. All the interior doors need replacing. Does one go as cheap as possible, or do we still have the bite the bullet for granite, stainless, and heated bathroom floors in a POS?

  44. nj escapee says:

    Shore if you dare to change your browser safety settings for the wild and crazy photos.
    I stopped by for a beer at Cowboy Bills a couple years back during Fantasy Fest on Friday night. omg it was just about wall to wall n-dity.

    Shore Guy says:
    October 21, 2011 at 11:16 am
    NJE,

    From the photos http://www.fantasyfest.net/photo-gallery/ , it reminds me of Halloween in Boulder.

  45. 4c says:

    FNC residential index is down more than 10% yoy for aug 11 but grim chose to ignore it. Grim changed his tune. He is now siding with the media re shills such as nytimes and the wsj. Shills always come up with positive/stabilization news even if re market is crashing. It is cheerleading and grim joined them. Perhaps there’s more dough this way. Anyway this blog is quickly becoming irrelevant witness the low posting #s.

    Houses are unaffordable in our region–they always were-now even more so with high taxes, shrinking incomes and benefits, and higher taxes. Bernanke can bring rates down to zero but as we have to pay for his policy there won’t be any money left to buy overpriced assets.

    There’s only profit for the parasitic slumlords but only because we subsidize them.

  46. Happy Renter says:

    From the lead article: “[A]ll we are saying is that things are bad but not as bad as some might try to make us believe.” — Barclays Capital

    LOL

    Who are these mysterious “some” that are out there trying to make “us” (Barclays?) believe that things are so bad? Is the Barclays analyst worried about a Hobo With a Shotgun posting on a blog?

    Funny, all the media shills I hear are always expecting “recovery” in the housing market right around the corner, and are shocked — shocked! — when the latest housing numbers (unexpectedly) show no real improvement, and are then revised downward months later.

    There’s nothing to see here, folks! Pay no attention to the tsunami behind the curtain! The housing market is not as bad as those insidious, powerful, conspiring “they” would have you believe! Bubble prices by 2020! Buy now or be priced out forever!

    We are just trying to protect you. We would never lie to you.

  47. 3B says:

    #47 4c I won’ comment on your negative comments directed at grim. But houses were very affordable in the mid to late 90’s for many people in the area.

  48. Shore Guy says:

    The United States will withdraw almost all its troops from Iraq by the end of the year, as a current agreement with Iraq dictates, a U.S. official told CNN on Friday.

    Only about 150 troops, a negligible force, will remain to assist in arms sales.

    The United States had expected that some of the roughly 40,000 Americans in Iraq would remain there to aid in training and security. But the two nations were unable to reach a deal on a key issue regarding legal immunity for U.S. troops, a senior U.S. military official with direct knowledge of the discussions told CNN this month.

    President Obama will make a statement about the U.S. involvement in Iraq at 12:45 p.m. ET. Watch live coverage of the president and analysis from Wolf Blitzer, John King and Gloria Borger on CNN-TV.

    Watch live coverage now on http://CNN.com/Live

  49. scribe says:

    from the WSJ:

    Chuck Schumer wants to give visas to foreigners who buy a half-mil of RE in the US.

    Didn’t someone on this blog promote this idea at some point?

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203752604576641421449460968.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read

  50. nwnj says:

    30. JJ says:
    October 21, 2011 at 9:04 am
    Mary Poland-Smith should have been arrested on a a suitability complaint for selling those houses to those poor shmucks in the first place. Occupy should protest at her house

    Getting a little hot in the kitchen, eh JJ?

  51. nwnj says:

    #49

    Who knows how NAR is cooking the numbers, but based on watching listings over the past year, I have a hard time believing the story yesterday that prices are down only .5% YoY. That doesn’t sound right.

  52. JJ says:

    Weird, 277461AV1 EASTMAN KODAK CO DEB 9.20000% 06/01/2021 is rallying but EK stock isnt.

    Bond is now at an ask of 42 meanwhile had an ask of 35 yesterday. Big move in the kodak bonds today without much stock movement or news.

    Me thinks something is up.

  53. freedy says:

    I think I saw that guy over at Shop rite in Trenton

  54. 3B says:

    #53 I thought the same thing.

  55. Young Buck says:

    Six-figure salaries, but homeless

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney) – They’re pulling in fat paychecks, but now they’re also homeless.

    In the town of Williston, N.D., America’s newest oil boomtown, more than 6,000 job seekers have come from every corner of the country looking for work. Yet, oil companies and other developers haven’t been able to build housing units fast enough.

    In the past year, only about 2,000 new housing units have been built, leaving many workers out in the cold.

    With dozens of job seekers arriving by the day and fewer and fewer spots for them live in, people are taking some desperate measures.

    Newer arrivals who can’t find vacant hotel rooms or apartments, sleep in their cars or in sleeping bags on spare patches of grass along the highway. The luckier ones nab a spot in one of the dozens of dorm-like facilities, known as “man camps,” that the oil companies have built to house their workers.

    The living conditions are far from ideal, but to some of these workers the lure of doubling or tripling their salaries far outweighs the physical and mental toll it can take.

    My street address is the Walmart parking lot

    In July, Matt was transferred from a Walmart in Minnesota to Williston’s only Walmart — more than doubling his salary. After arriving in the town he bought an RV live in and soon realized that the store’s parking lot was going to be the closest thing to home he was going to have for some time.

    Each day, he buys something from the 24-hour Supercenter so he has an excuse to stay there. At night, Matt (who asked that his last name not be used) and his neighbors break out their lawn chairs, a grill and some beers and tell stories into the wee hours about where they have come from and what they are doing –or hope to do — with the money they will make off of this black gold rush.

    “Some people look at us like we’re homeless,” he said. “But anyone who needs to find us can find us — we have a street address: it’s 4001 2nd Ave., Walmart.”

    LaRae and Scott Miles have been living with their two kids and three dogs in an RV parked in a Williston campground since moving from Washington more than a year ago.

    “It’s crazy to go from having a home and a yard to living in an 8 by 10 trailer with no yard,” said their daughter Kimberly, a sophomore in high school whose belongings are in a suitcase stowed at the end of her bed. “It’s going to be a great day when we find a house.”

    Before the move, the Miles’ were struggling to make ends meet. Now, Scott is making $20 an hour as a truck driver — double his previous salary.

    “I’m happy we moved out here, but I’m not happy about how we live,” said LaRae. “We’re looking for something more permanent to rent, but this is about all we can do.”

    Life in the “man camps”

    Even those who have a place to live find the conditions tough. Many of the major oil companies that are cashing in on the oil discovered in the Bakken formation have been renting entire floors of hotels, spare apartments or building housing facilities — called “lodges” by some and “man camps” by others — in order to house their workers.

    Halliburton, one of the major drilling and hydraulic fracturing companies in the region, even went so far as to have the Olympic Village housing units that were used for the security guards from the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics relocated to the town for its workers.

    Benjamin Lukes, 31, has been living in Halliburton’s “man camp” for almost a year now.

    Lukes is bringing in roughly $100,000 a year (including overtime pay), nearly triple the amount he made back in Minnesota when he was manufacturing plastics. But it means being far from his family and living in quarters that he likens to a “prison cell.”

    The facility is wall-to-wall white, with long empty hallways and florescent lighting. Lukes’ room is about 160 square feet, the walls are bare — except for a drawing from his daughter — and there’s a metal-framed twin bed.

    The $400 a month he pays for rent includes housekeeping and three complimentary meals a day, making it the best deal around, he said. But he will never call it home.

    “[My wife and I] talked about trying to find something in the area where I could bring them, he said. One of the local hotels said they would have an apartment suite available in February for $6,700 a month. “[Y]ou can imagine that wasn’t a real good option… there’s just nowhere to put them.”

    Lukes hates that he missed the birth of his son this year, but knows he can’t support his growing family without this job.

    “Each work cycle as I drive away seeing my two-year-old daughter’s face in the window, I wonder how much longer I can keep this up,” he said. “In the meantime, though, I keep getting promotions, and raises, and bonuses. It’s a mixed blessing.”

    Cindy Marchello, who is 54 and from Logan, Utah, works for a trucking company and is the only woman living in her man camp. She pays $600 a month and has to share a bathroom with a man.

    “I miss my family,” she said, sitting near the frames full of family photos she keeps on her bureau. “When I leave [after going visiting home], I have to leave in the middle of the night. I can’t tell everyone goodbye. And I cry all the way back.”

    Efforts are being made to build more housing in Williston and other oil boomtowns. Some even see it as an investment opportunity.

    Ex-New England Patriots player, Jarvis Green, and his company First Millenium Construction are building a 500-person man camp in Watford City, less than 50 miles north of Williston. Green said he expects to make a 200% to 300% return on the multi-million dollar investment, and he said the lodge should be completed by the end of the year.

    “Out there they don’t have a recession — you say that word out there and somebody would probably slap you,” said Green. “It’s the place to be.”

  56. 3B says:

    #50 About time they are coming home.

  57. nwnj says:

    #57

    Here’s another take from the WSJ blog on this week’s NAR “statistics”. Not as rosy as “showing some stabilization”.

    Behind the Numbers: the Housing Crash Continues.
    http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2011/10/20/behind-the-numbers-the-housing-crash-continues/

  58. 30 year realtor says:

    #47 4c – In the interest of fairness this is the article you cite. It does not in any way justify your rant! You should apologize or just go away.

    Home prices nationwide declined a slight 0.8% in August from July, according to the FNC Inc. residential price index.

    The decline may suggest housing activity is headed into negative territory after a brief seasonal rebound, the mortgage technology firm suggested. The slight decline reverses a four-month trend of price increases.

    FNC evaluates home prices for its index by analyzing both real-time appraisal data and public property records. The index excludes foreclosure sales.

    National home prices on a year-over-year basis are 4% to 5% lower than levels attained in August 2010, FNC said.

    The report broke home prices down by market and found that several cities, including Boston, Minneapolis, Phoenix, Portland, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Tampa and Washington, D.C., felt the pangs of 1% to 3% price declines in August.

    When looking at price appreciation on a year-to-date basis, Boston, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, Minneapolis and San Francisco all showed price appreciation after rebounding during the selling season. Markets with significant price depreciation over last year include Las Vegas, Miami and Orlando — all of which experienced declines of 10% to 14.2%

  59. Nicholas says:

    I read this blog every day but post only once a week or less. Just because there are not posts doesn’t mean people don’t derive value.

    I’m interested in the discussions surrounding housing. This forum is the only place where I feel honest discussion goes on about the news. I’m particularly turned off by most comment boards due to sheer stupidity of the commenters but here there seems to be a stable mix.

    In general, on the topic of real estate, we are at a point where forclosure moratoriums have distorted the markets, big time. I’m interested in seeing how things play out as these forclosure moratoriums are lifted. Once these properties start making it onto the market how will that play out in the long run. My opinion is that we are going to see another leg down once the forclosure machines start up again.

    It might be easy to sit back and say that inventory is down and that the market is returning to normal but I’m thinking that this is the eye of the storm and that we are going to see more wreckage before this is over.

  60. Juice Box says:

    Nicolas re: “but here there seems to be a stable mix.”

    Jamil left?

  61. 3B says:

    #62 Nicholas: Good post. I am interested to see what happens when interest rates hit 7% again; what does that do to housing? Do the 3% )or more in many cases) a year continue, or do they accelerate? For those who believe that there is a slow recovery (cannot see how one can hold that belief if prices are continuing to decline) does the inevitable rise in rates derail that decline. If housing is basically dead in whatever various forms one might describe as dead, does the rise in interest rates kill the so called recovery? Does raging inflation make that a non issue? If inflation is raging, will there be a corresponding spike in wages? Or are we going to have ultra low rates for years to come, thereby keeping housing on permanent life support?

  62. JJ says:

    Ohio State University, with the largest U.S. single-campus student population, joined the University of Southern California and Massachusetts Institute of Technology selling the most 100-year school bonds in 15 years.

    The institution, started in 1870, sold $500 million of taxable century bonds rated AA on Oct. 19 priced to yield 4.85 percent, 1.7 percentage points more than 30-year U.S. Treasuries, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Investors ordered three times the amount of bonds on sale, said Geoffrey Chatas, chief financial officer of the Columbus-based school.

  63. 3B says:

    #61 I agree, grim deserves an apology. He has always been even handed in his approach to this blog.

  64. Juice Box says:

    re: # 62 & 64 “we are going to see more wreckage before this is over”

    The Housing wreckage is barely Flotsam, we have yet to reach the Derelict Titanic depths that we could be headed for.

    Case in point. The current Administration and the Fed have been looking at ways of winding down the massive taxpayer subsidized Fannie and Freddie which are 90% of the mortgage market now and allowing the free markets to take over.

    If that happens we are not looking at 7% interest, we are more looking at exponential increases in interest to 16%. Who in their right mind in the private sector would want to buy a 30 year mortgage @ 4% or even 7% with little or no backing for losses? Better yet will their even be a 30 year mortgage at all? The 30 year it really is an exotic instrument though up by the government during the height of the 1930s Depression.

    Politically we will have a whole new landscape before this is over, a reset is long overdue. There is no way to sweep this mess under the rug, they have been trying for over 4 years since the March 28th speech were Bernake first uttered the words “At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained”, and later that same day Hank Paulson testified to the House of Representatives that “from the standpoint of the overall economy, my bottom line is we’re watching it closely but it appears to be contained.”

    Yeah, “contained” here we are adrift years later and we are still in the iceberg field.

  65. ricky_nu says:

    truth is, I have not seen prices fall out of bed, I suspect we see stagnation until we inflat our way into prices. Reasonably priced (that offer some value, not giving away by any means)homes trade, houses priced for the sky sit. But, don’t expect to see a listing and say “wow, that is CHEAP!” , it isn’t happening. I have been watching for a trade up home, and have been underwhelmed. Expected to be able to cherry pick given all the press of a “real estate implosion”, haven’t seen it, sorry.

  66. yo says:

    If you notice,when there are events that needs to be discussed the threads still go up to 200+.Housing is done.There is not much to debate about housing anymore.I read this blog everyday but I don’t post to often.I am sure the same is true to the old timers.

  67. grim says:

    Did we win the war?

  68. chicagofinance says:

    The thread posts are down because several regular posters have cut back from about 10-15 posts a day to less than 5.

    yo says:
    October 21, 2011 at 4:45 pm
    If you notice,when there are events that needs to be discussed the threads still go up to 200+.Housing is done.There is not much to debate about housing anymore.I read this blog everyday but I don’t post to often.I am sure the same is true to the old timers.

  69. Essex says:

    Peace in our time, yo.

  70. yo says:

    Reuters) – Homeowners who owe more than their houses are worth will get new help to refinance in a government plan to be unveiled as early as Monday to support the battered housing sector, sources familiar with the effort said

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/21/us-usa-housing-idUSTRE79K6JY20111021

  71. Orion says:

    75- Who came up with this brilliant, innovative idea? B. Frank? Isn’t this similar to the crap B. Frank derived and pushed for years ago? And it turned out so well…..

  72. Mikeinwaiting/Dirty Renter says:

    BFF:http://www.marketwatch.com/story/georgia-florida-bank-fails-bring-year-tally-to-83-2011-10-21
    The FDIC closes three more banks, two in Georgia and one in Florida, bringing the number of failed banks to 83 this year. The total cost of the three failures to its deposit-insurance fund – $133.9M.

  73. Juice Box says:

    Lack of posts is indicative that most people are resigned to their fate. Nobody in my circle talks about housing, however since the death of Bin Laden there is now a void. That void for instant discussion and debate. Really where is the Villain, I can now hate?

    Don’t we always need Villain so Perhaps the OWS movement has via viral media identified a new Villan the ever man can now hate?

  74. Mikeinwaiting/Dirty Renter says:

    Juice you are correct there is no talk of housing , those who would challenge my views in the past are silent. Time to create another villain, I do not think Wall Street boogie man is going to do it. But I could be wrong, betting on the intelligence of the general public is a losing proposition.

  75. Juice Box says:

    Mike, voids are funny things, the need to be filled and quickly, with O’s announcement of the wind down in Iraq combined with Ghadaffis death we need somebody to hate. John Lennon was wrong. We will find someone or something soon enough. I hope it doesn’t start a huge war either.

  76. 3b says:

    #78/&0 Same here. Too bad they did not share the same consideration and manners when I sild mine right around peak. They were not near so courteous as I have been to them.

  77. 3b says:

    #81 Sorry should have been 79/80

  78. Mikeinwaiting/Dirty Renter says:

    80 ” I hope it doesn’t start a huge war either.” Juice the overall debt of the US is 350% GDP 17 Euro-zone nations around 450 % . What other options do you think the west has. We do not have the numbers but do have a tech edge for now. Sooner is better than later. Hate the idea but if you are going to do it, do it while you have a chance of winning. No doubt the R’s will vote in a neocon albeit in sheep’s clothing & we are off.

  79. Mikeinwaiting/Dirty Renter says:

    3b as usual we are on the same page.

  80. 3b says:

    #84 Mike: Dirty renter losers think alike!!!

  81. Al Mossberg says:

    62,

    Nicholas,

    We are in deep sh_t. Yes, housing will go down but that doesnt mean you will want to buy. The way this country is headed you need to consider getting out if necessary. Renting is the way to go for the foreseeable future so long as your savings is not in cash.

    The Euro daily drama has my _sshole puckered. The German Bunderstag isnt going to approve the necessary funds. 210 billion x 5 leverage = 2 trillion. That aint going to cut it.

    Fed openly talking QE3 with MBS purchases and expansion of balance sheet. This will help but change nothing long term.

    War is coming. Dont let your kids fight in the BS.

  82. Juice Box says:

    Al – boom bust theory? The bust may be longer than you think just take a look at Japan.

  83. cobbler says:

    The wars were economically useful in the era of mass conscripted armies – large number of people were sucked out of the civilian workforce which needed replacements; great demand was emerging for arms and munitions, as well as food for the military, uniforms, vehicles, whatever. Today’s war will be a boon to a narrow/high-tech slice of the defense industry, and will impoverish everyone else yet more – and this is an optimistic view; the pessimistic one is that everyone is nuked to smithereens, so there is neither economy nor citizens to talk about.

  84. Al Mossberg says:

    87,

    Juice,

    No doubt that this bust has gone on longer than most expected. This could continue. That being said it all could come crumbling down in a week as well.

    Not the scenario you want for buying a home or expanding a business.

    Squeeze your cheeks together folks unless you are wearing armor. Sh_t is just getting uglier by the day. My financial future rests on the central banks printing money to kick the can down the road. Lets just hope they dont pull the plug here. Otherwise we will all be raising chickens and living in mud huts.

  85. Fabius Maximus says:

    Found this on Twitter today. A great representaion that puts discussions in perspective.
    http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/the-billion-dollar-o-gram-2009/

  86. freedy says:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/print/439442

    JPM say ‘s it s time to buy

  87. yo says:

    CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — Insurance regulators in Arizona have taken over the main subsidiary of mortgage insurer PMI Group Inc. /quotes/zigman/149123/quotes/nls/pmi PMI -14.58% , the Wall Street Journal reported Saturday. PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. will start paying 50% of claims starting Monday, with the remainder deferred, according to its website, the newspaper said. The seizure of the company, outlined in an Oct. 20 court order, comes two months after Arizona ordered the company to stop selling new coverage. PMI is based in Walnut Creek, Calif., while the subsidiary is incorporated in Arizona, according to the company’s website.

  88. Mikeinwaiting/Dirty Renter says:

    Shore there are inherent risk in fracken as in any energy source. Nuclear , all to evident lately, oil : spills , blown wells, etc. What are the alternatives, wind & solar. We do not have the tech yet to make them work as a large scale source of energy. You use what you have available & take your chances. On the flip side you can not take the risk & make energy so expensive that our country goes belly up with a dramatic lowering in the standard of living. Cheap energy makes America work.

  89. Mikeinwaiting/Dirty Renter says:

    PS Shore you may agree with me or not as you did not really post an opinion with your post. It would seem to infer by “frack away”that you are anti, but I could be wrong. Well you have my 2 cents.

  90. Shore Guy says:

    Mike,

    Any fracking that involves injecting anything other than just water and sand is bone headed. The use of harmful chemicals infracking should be banned. Also, some of the states allow fracking companies to drill under the land of people who refused to lease their mineral rights to the frackers.

  91. Shore Guy says:

    “Shore if you dare to change your browser safety settings for the wild and crazy photos.”

    I am an old dude, I better not.

  92. Mikeinwaiting/Dirty Renter says:

    Shore I know someone in PA who gets like 100k a year for the rights to drill under & still has use of his land. I do not agree with states or the Feds superseding citizens property rights at all. As far as chemicals you may be right , I am leery about putting them down there also. That being said we have to get some energy from a cost/energy efficient source.

  93. NjescaPee says:

    They’re just bits and bytes ;)

  94. NjescaPee says:

    Beautiful here today low humidity 78 degrees and sunny

  95. Mikeinwaiting/Dirty Renter says:

    Not bad here either, nice crisp fall day 54*.

  96. yo says:

    Their story might seem like the exception among the rich, who, we’re told, just keep getting richer. Yet episodes like the Fall of the House of Siegel are becoming increasingly common as the wealthy undergo a sweeping and little-noticed revolution. The American rich, who used to be the most stable slice of the personal economy, are now the most volatile, with escalating booms and busts.

    During the past three recessions, the top 1% of earners (those making $380,000 or more in 2008) experienced the largest income shocks in percentage terms of any income group in the U.S., according to research from economists Jonathan A. Parker and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen at Northwestern University. When the economy grows, their incomes grow up to three times faster than the rest of the country’s. When the economy falls, their incomes fall two or three times as much.

    The super-high earners have the biggest crashes. The number of Americans making $1 million or more fell 40% between 2007 and 2009, to 236,883, while their combined incomes fell by nearly 50%—far greater than the less than 2% drop in total incomes of those making $50,000 or less, according to Internal Revenue Service figures.

    Of course, the trauma of giving up a Gulfstream or a yacht can’t compare with the millions of Americans who have lost their only job or home. The Siegels will make do in their current 26,000-square-foot mansion.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204346104576638981631627402.html?mod=WSJ_hp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsFifth

  97. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Soccer OT alert:

    My 8yo’s team played in the No. Brunswick spookorama tournament today. 2 games, 2 wins vs Bridgewater and Millburn. But the best part was 2 milestones for my girl: her first goal in travel soccer, and her first penalty for aggressive play. Don’t know which to be more proud of.

    Also learned that her personal soccer trainer is a magpies fan. Did not make that connection before. So she and I decided to cheer on the barcodes from now on. Besides, who wants to be a Gooner???

  98. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (78)juice

    Are you not paying attention? The narrative is being written now. We are supposed to hate the Chinese.

    Okay everyone, time for the Two Minute Hate.

  99. Mikeinwaiting/Dirty Renter says:

    Nom 104 Bingo! are next nemesis. They have plenty of bodies to throw around , we need to get everyone working in the war effort. This will not be like the middle east, war with China = a huge number of casualties. Think it can’t happen folks wait & see.

  100. Mikeinwaiting/Dirty Renter says:

    “Arizona regulators seize the main subsidiary of mortgage insurer PMI Group (PMI), and will begin paying out claims at 50% on Monday, with the remaining amount deferred as a policyholder claim. PMI stopped issuing new commitments in August.”

    Not to worry all is well.

    http://seekingalpha.com/news-article/1687212-the-pmi-group-inc-announces-issuance-of-supervisory-order-by-the-arizona-department-of-insurance

  101. Mikeinwaiting/Dirty Renter says:

    “To all policyholders, insureds, and servicers:

    On August 19, 2011, PMI informed you of regulatory decisions that impacted our ability to write new commitments of insurance. Specifically, PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. (“PMI”) was required to cease writing new commitments.

    Today, we are informing all policyholders, insureds, and servicers of loans insured by PMI that the Director of the Arizona Department of Insurance obtained an “Order Directing Full and Exclusive Possession and Control of Insurer” (the “Order”) with respect to PMI. Under the Order, the Arizona Department of Insurance now has full possession, management and control of PMI.

    Effective October 24, 2011 and pursuant to the Order, in lieu of a moratorium on claim payments, the Director is instituting a partial claim payment plan. Claim payments will be made at 50%, with the remaining amount deferred as a policyholder claim. To view the Order, please click here.

    We will continue to support our customers’ ongoing policy servicing needs and loss mitigation programs. PMI will maintain all systems, processes, and contact points for policy servicing, loss mitigation, and claims operations just as we do today”

    This should male policy holders all warm & fuzzy.

  102. Mikeinwaiting/Dirty Renter says:

    male = make

  103. Shore Guy says:

    What it sounds like Clot wants to do to some of the people responsible for our current mess:

    http://www.globalpost.com/video/5678826/video-decoding-gaddafis-death-graphic

  104. Shore Guy says:

    “low humidity 78 degrees and sunny”

    it will help salv the pain of being so far away from Manhattan and the NJ beaches.

  105. Shore Guy says:

    salve, even

  106. Fabius Maximus says:

    #103 Nom

    Thats a great choice for you. Your years of Sox support will help you through the next load of years.

  107. Shore Guy says:

    Now, for something totally different:

    http://www.prisontalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5576

  108. Shore Guy says:

    It is always fun to watch OU (Oklahoma) getting crushed on the football field.

    http://espn.go.com/watchespn/player?&league=ncaaf&gameId=312950201

  109. shawn says:

    Hello all – my name is DirtyJersey.
    I refuse to believe this blog is on the decline. I’ve been a faithful lurker from the early years…and I donate my annual dues.

    I consider this place my main news source and refuge from the msm bs.

    see you guys tomorrow.

  110. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [114] fabius

    That comparison suggests to me that Newcastle fans are loyal, whereas Arsenal is the flavor of the week.

  111. Shore Guy says:

    This is a number of months old but it provides good data on why the $250,000/year crowd cannot save the housing market:

    http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2010/12/07/Down-and-Out-on-250000-a-Year.aspx?p=1

  112. Confused in NJ says:

    119.Shore Guy says:
    October 23, 2011 at 2:03 am
    This is a number of months old but it provides good data on why the $250,000/year crowd cannot save the housing market:

    http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2010/12/07/Down-and-Out-on-250000-a-Year.aspx?p=1

    In NJ, Corzine put in a lot of below the radar taxes like sales tax on hardwood floors, snow removal, lawn service, etc. Add to that municipal taxes, which run from fees for garage sales to replacing your hot water heater, and one can quickly exceed FIT. That’s why someone in 1980 getting a $125K house with a 16% mortgage was ahead versus now. The disposable income was greater. Today a 1980’s $20 parking ticket is $150.

  113. Tommy says:

    Hallelujah! I neeedd this—you’re my savior.

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