August Case Shiller Predictions

Where do you think home prices went in August?

From HousingWire:

Zillow: Case-Shiller likely fell 3.8% in August

Two key indices of home prices likely fell in August, suggesting large numbers of foreclosures and continued high joblessness are acting as a drag on the market, according to a new forecast.

The Case-Shiller 20-city composite home price index, scheduled to be released on Tuesday, likely fell 3.8% in August from a year earlier and 0.3% from July on a seasonally adjusted basis, said a forecast from Zillow Inc. chief economist Stan Humphries. The downward trend will continue through the end of the year, he predicts.

“We expect to see continued home value depreciation as unemployment and negative equity remain high,” said Humphries. “The large foreclosure pipeline will produce relatively low priced REOs in the market, putting downward pressure on prices going forward, and we do expect the pace at which homes exit this pipeline to pick up in the near-term.”

The Case-Shiller 10-City composite index is expected to register a seasonally adjusted decline of 3.5% in August from the previous year, and 0.2% compared to July.

“After showing monthly appreciation earlier this year and building some momentum, recent weak economic data is starting to be reflected in home values,” Humphries said. “Existing home sales have been disappointing, with September sales down 3% from August.”

Humphries is bearish on the overall housing market for at least the next year.

A survey of more than 100 economists by Pulsenomics shows the median expectation for that group is a decline in the Case-Shiller 20-city index of 2.8% in the fourth quarter from the final three months of 2010. Zillow, on the other hand, is projected a 4.5% decline, and then another 2.5% drop from the fourth quarter of 2011 to 2012.

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136 Responses to August Case Shiller Predictions

  1. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Slowdown in Economy Hits N.J. Industrial Space

    The slowdown in the national economy in the third quarter was felt in the market for New Jersey industrial space.

    The vacancy rate declined with tenants occupying about 1 million square feet more at the end of the quarter than at the beginning, according to a report by real estate services firm CBRE Group Inc. But the rate of improvement slowed. In the second quarter of this year the amount of occupied space increased by 3.5 million square feet.

    The market is moving in a “positive direction,” the report notes. But the report also notes that the improvement in the state’s unemployment rate that occurred toward the end of 2010 have now been reversed.

    “Renewed uncertainty regarding the US and global economic climates has the potential to halt this progress,” the report states

  2. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  3. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    U.S. Refinance Fix Viewed as Unlikely to ‘Shock and Awe’ Economy

    U.S. President Barack Obama, who tours foreclosure-ravaged Nevada and California this week, may face homeowners demanding bolder action as regulators prepare to release details of new housing proposals as early as this week.

    Lawmakers and analysts briefed on plans by the independent Federal Housing Finance Agency estimate they will help less than 1 million borrowers — and perhaps as few as 600,000 — of the 11 million whose mortgages are higher than the value of their homes.

    Edward J. DeMarco, acting director of the FHFA, is preparing to unveil changes to the Home Affordable Refinance Program, a three-year-old effort that allows borrowers to take new loans for as much as 125 percent of their home value. DeMarco has said his fix will be more of a tune-up than an overhaul, with reduced “frictions” and “enhancements.”

    “To have true shock and awe that would jump-start the economy you need a lot more than 600,000 additional refis,” said Jaret Seiberg, a Washington-based financial policy analyst with MF Global Holdings Ltd.

    Almost three years into his term, Obama has failed to halt the slide in home prices and the rising tide of foreclosures that began in 2007 and reached a record 2.9 million filings last year.

    The prospect that Obama himself may announce the FHFA move is “sure to fuel speculation that the plan will be bigger than people are pricing in,” Edward Mills, an analyst with FBR Capital Markets Corp. in Arlington, Virginia, wrote in a research note last week.

  4. funnelcloud says:

    Isn’t this a direct contradiction of Friday’s report, These guys are right up their with meteorologist when it comes to getting anything right.

  5. grim says:

    Why the heck aren’t the retirees moving south? Don’t they know the property taxes are cheaper?

    From the Record:

    North Jersey towns feel strain as elderly stay put

    North Jersey’s wealthier communities are graying and more of their oldest residents are living alone, triggering new demand for senior services in some places.

    From Alpine to Wayne, the number of people 75 and older living in the more upscale towns of Bergen and Passaic counties jumped 23 percent last decade, while the number living alone spiked 50 percent, according to an analysis of 2010 census data by The Record.

    In general, the trend was limited to the more sprawling, car-dependent towns in the northern halves of the two counties, a fact that adds to the needs of a demographic category that tends to require more community assistance.

    The trend contrasts with what happened during the last decade in the less-wealthy, more densely populated communities of Bergen and Passaic, where the number of people 75 and older dropped 6 percent. As a result, the overall population of that age bracket rose only 3 percent in the region.

    Advocates for the elderly say there’s good news in the fact that more elderly residents are choosing to “age in place” in economically better-off parts of North Jersey rather than moving to warmer climates or pedestrian-friendly cities.

    Many are choosing to stay because they have the financial means and family support to do so, said Lorraine Joewono, director of the Bergen County Division of Senior Services.

    And the increasing numbers of elderly living on their own is also a sign of improved health overall, said Mary Kuzinski, director of the Passaic County Department of Senior Services.

    “What we’re seeing more and more is that when people come into our system, they are well into their 80s, rather than in their 60s,” Kuzinski said. “People are managing without help for many more years than they did in the past.”

    At the same time, although the towns tend to be more affluent — the 33 towns where the trend is most evident have a typical family income of more than $110,000 — it doesn’t necessarily follow that the elderly residents are wealthy. Some may be remaining out of concern they won’t make enough on the sale of their homes in the current economy to afford to live comfortably somewhere else.

    “Folks to a certain extent have been caught and stuck by the declining values of their homes,” said Tom Toronto, president of Bergen County United Way. “There’s a bit of a housing vise.”

  6. grim says:

    Ain’t just in Minneapolis, from McClatchy:

    It’s a buyer’s market – or is it?

    Jessica Harrison thought she knew what to expect when she decided to look for a house: a buyer’s market.

    And why not? Prices in Minneapolis, as in much of the country, are down sharply since 2009. And with so many foreclosed properties for sale, Harrison was certain she would find a good deal fast.

    Instead, the Minneapolis teacher waded through countless homes during what became a two-year search. Most needed too much work. When she found a move-in-ready house, she lost out to bids she couldn’t match. Harrison tried to buy a home through a short sale, too, but the deal fell through after six months.

    She finally reached a deal on a tidy house in south Minneapolis and expects to close at the end of this month. “There were multiple properties available, but I wanted to get a house that I could move into,” Harrison said. “A lot of the houses needed a lot of work, and I didn’t have the money or resources to do that.”

    Home buyers can no longer assume that it’s easy to buy a cheap house in a good location. Make no mistake: There are still more sellers than buyers. But the decline in listings and the quality of the options are slowing the search for those on the hunt, as would-be sellers are holding on to their homes until the market improves. U.S. home listings in September fell to a four-year low, according to Realtor.com.

    “[Buyers] have to be patient until the right home comes along,” said Ryan Haagenson, a sales agent with Re/Max Results in Minneapolis. “And ready to pull the trigger when it does.”

  7. grim says:

    From the Christian Science Monitor:

    A Long, Steep Drop for Americans’ Standard of Living

    Think life is not as good as it used to be, at least in terms of your wallet? You’d be right about that. The standard of living for Americans has fallen longer and more steeply over the past three years than at any time since the US government began recording it five decades ago.

    Bottom line: The average individual now has $1,315 less in disposable income than he or she did three years ago at the onset of the Great Recession – even though the recession ended, technically speaking, in mid-2009. That means less money to spend at the spa or the movies, less for vacations, new carpeting for the house, or dinner at a restaurant.

    In short, it means a less vibrant economy, with more Americans spending primarily on necessities. The diminished standard of living, moreover, is squeezing the middle class, whose restlessness and discontent are evident in grass-roots movements such as the tea party and “Occupy Wall Street” and who may take out their frustrations on incumbent politicians in next year’s election.

    What has led to the most dramatic drop in the US standard of living since at least 1960? One factor is stagnant incomes: Real median income is down 9.8 percent since the start of the recession through this June, according to Sentier Research in Annapolis, Md., citing census bureau data. Another is falling net worth – think about the value of your home and, if you have one, your retirement portfolio. A third is rising consumer prices, with inflation eroding people’s buying power by 3.25 percent since mid-2008.

    “In a dynamic economy, one would expect Americans’ disposable income to be growing, but it has flattened out at a low level,” says economist Bob Brusca of Fact & Opinion Economics in New York.

    To be sure, the recession has hit unevenly, with lower-skilled and less-educated Americans feeling the pinch the most, says Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Economy.com based in West Chester, Pa. Many found their jobs gone for good as companies moved production offshore or bought equipment that replaced manpower.

  8. plume (28, last thread)-

    It’s not the system, it’s the trainer. IMO, as an overall regimen for developing young players, the Brazilian way is far more effective. It’s much more focused on the individual.

  9. Neanderthal Economist says:

    3-4% decreases for 15-20 years gets us to the full 100% price decline. Homes for $1, here we go.

  10. Juice Box says:

    End is Neigh (Barbie Edition)

    Barbie moves to Dirty Joisey and Spends her summers in Belmar.

    Meet tramp stamp Barbie!

    http://www.barbiecollector.com/shop/doll/tokidoki-barbie-doll-t7939

  11. funnelcloud says:

    Grim #5
    I have the answer to this one, Its the Boomers, They bought the homes cheap but refuse to sell for anything less than top dollar. They are all ready to move to FLA , NC, VA, and they are pissed that the youngens won’t give them what they feel their homes worth. Its the same old argument, whats the home worth to a buyer and what can they afford and whats it worth to the seller and how much are they willing to give up to sell, the gaps as wide as the grand canyon. So for now and probably the next several years we will have a stalemate.

  12. Extinction before recovery.

  13. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (9) meat,

    For my money, I feel that I could take a number of these girls and train them to beat the better girls easily. There is no emphasis on tackling or dealing with defensive tactics. Instead they spend 20 minutes of practice juggling.

    I have been teaching my daughter how to closely defend and tackle, ward off defenders, and not fear the ball in the air. in short I have examined the u 9 game, identified weaknesses, and implemented repetitive drills on very simple tasks, so that very basic skills are automatic. So far the results of spoken for themselves.

  14. POS cape says:

    12

    The article says age 75 and older are staying put. Those aren’t boomers.

  15. Bid/ask spread on housing is so wide that the market does not function. In fact, it is not even a market. It’s a charade, and it’s being employed for the sole purpose of propping up an illusion of value. Unfortunately, real value has left the building.

    Whatever comes next will only be a furthering of the charade and a ratchet up in the “things are getting better now” rhetoric. Now the pipedream du jour is a massive refinance of negative equity. Let’s see how many investors in first mortgages and holders of junior liens let this one fly.

    What could possibly be wrong with a refi down to 4% on six figures’ worth of unsecured, underwater debt? What junior lienholder wouldn’t jump to subordinate to such a loan? This is actually more insane than the original risk assessments (or lack thereof) that got us into this mess in the first place.

    The stench of death is full on now. Smoke ’em if you got ’em.

  16. plume (14)-

    It can be frustrating to adults, but there should be no tactics being taught until around the U-12 level. Introduce it before then, you will just get nods and smiles…but the players won’t really understand. You’re having success with your kid because you’re working on individual skills. Basic ball control, tackling, defending, dribbling, one-on-one situations, etc is what it’s all about for the next three years. All that juggling will pay off in balance, decision-making and ball control.

    I have seen lots of young players ruined by introduction to tactical play and “systems” at too young an age.

  17. 3B says:

    #3 Is it the President’s job, any President’s responsibility to halt teh sleide in home prices? Just asking.

  18. 3B says:

    #5 Folks to a certain extent have been caught and stuck by the declining values of their homes,” said Tom Toronto, president of Bergen County United Way. “There’s a bit of a housing vise.”

    So folks in their 70’s and 80’s are stuck because of declining house values? Really?? So folks that may have lived in these houses for 40 or 50 years and paid 15k to 40K for these same houses, are now in a vise because they did not sell when the House was worth 500K and now it has fallen to 350K. Are we really supposed to believe this is an issue?? Just asking.

  19. nj escapee says:

    3B, I think this article is about a small minority of elderly people. Home values are secondary at that stage of life especially if the place is paid off. Most old folks generally want to stay where they feel comfortable and secure, have roots, close to family and friends.

  20. JJ says:

    Sports are a funny thing. Mainly a white and black surburb thing. I rarely interview white or black males between the ages or 21 and 35 for jobs anymore, none are qualified to do more than catch, throw and kick a ball. However, I don’t find much use for that at work. The Indians and Asians and non-butchy white girls seem to be only people studying. They appear to be only qualified candidates for six figure plus jobs on wall street, where school, certifications, GPA and experience is what counts. Sadly todays start football player from a Blue Ribbon NJ town in 20 years will be working for mr and mrs Shah or mr and mrs Chen. Already we have lost the engineering and medical fields soon it will be all. So put down those bats and balls you blue ribbon school kids from NJ and hit the books now before Hindu or Mandarian language skills are needed in Ho Ho Kus just to order a Pizza.

    There Went Meat says:
    October 24, 2011 at 8:35 am
    plume (14)-

    It can be frustrating to adults, but there should be no tactics being taught until around the U-12 level. Introduce it before then, you will just get nods and smiles…but the players won’t really understand. You’re having success with your kid because you’re working on individual skills. Basic ball control, tackling, defending, dribbling, one-on-one situations, etc is what it’s all about for the next three years. All that juggling will pay off in balance, decision-making and ball control.

    I have seen lots of young players ruined by introduction to tactical play and “systems” at too young an age.

  21. JJ says:

    Folks with paid off houses who plain on dying in them really don’t worry about current market value. I for one don’t. My house is worth one dollar or one million dollar how does that effect me in any whay shape or form. It is an illuiqid asset I would only sell if I was trading up anyhow. And if trading up the higher the price the worse it is for me and if I stay put till I die what is the difference?

    3B says:
    October 24, 2011 at 9:14 am
    #5 Folks to a certain extent have been caught and stuck by the declining values of their homes,” said Tom Toronto, president of Bergen County United Way. “There’s a bit of a housing vise.”

    So folks in their 70′s and 80′s are stuck because of declining house values? Really?? So folks that may have lived in these houses for 40 or 50 years and paid 15k to 40K for these same houses, are now in a vise because they did not sell when the House was worth 500K and now it has fallen to 350K. Are we really supposed to believe this is an issue?? Just asking.

  22. 3B says:

    http://247wallst.com/2011/10/24/nine-things-that-will-make-the-economy-better-in-2020/?utm_source=247WallStDailyNewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=OCT242011A&utm_campaign=DailyNewsletter

    It is all going to be peaches and cream by 2020 according to this article. I think it is one of the most simplistic pieces of gobbly gook I have ever ready. Just saying.

  23. 3B says:

    #21 JJ Not disagreeing with you , simply pointing out that the person quoted thinks the housing bust may be one reason 70 and 80 year olds are staying put.

  24. JC says:

    Grim #7: If anyone thinks President $250 million Makes You Middle Class or President Nein Nein Nein or President Texas Moron is going to be an improvement, you’d better guess again.

  25. gary says:

    They don’t want to give it away. At least, that’s what their friends keep telling them. We’re in a record-setting stretch of denial and the “sellers” will be hard-pressed to move pass the level of grief. Years of flat to declining wages coupled with rising property taxes rising and stubborn price levels will result in a standoff. The only thing that will give… and it eventually will… is the price of the house.

    They’re going to go kicking and screaming but ultimately, the prices will reach a level where people can afford to pay for something liveable. It never fails. Those “savy” sellers are going to wish they sold now instead of waiting for the unicorns to show up and rescue them. They could’ve sold in 2006 for 650K. Today, they could sell for 540K. In 2013, when they finally give in, the sales price will be 469K.

  26. make money says:

    Folks with paid off houses who plain on dying in them really don’t worry about current market value.

    JJ,

    People look at their home at if its value and adjust their consumer spending habits accordingly. If Joe Six looks at his home and it sworth one million paid off and then looks at a 6 year old car in his driveway he automatically convinces himself that he deserves a new 5 series and a family disney vacation. However, if Joe looks at his home now worth 600K, he says “wow times are tough”, I don’t need a new car payment, and takes a family road trip to Myrtle beach instead.

  27. gary says:

    Dear Sellers,

    Consider me as a modern day Tokyo Rose. The only difference is that you’ve already been defeated… I’m just here to help you embrace the inevitable.

    Love,
    Gary

  28. Juice Box says:

    re: “Why the heck aren’t the retirees moving south?”

    My mom fits the profile, Bergen County house is paid for over a decade ago, about 9k in taxes now, cheap enough between SS and a nice pension including savings and investments. Only time she wants to head south as in Florida is when it gets really cold so she rents a condo down in Florida for a few weeks with friends. She has been thinking of buying herself a place down there, but being alone she would rather stay up here where her children and grandchildren are. She really has an active social life goes out allot, travels all over and spends lots of time with friends and family especially her grandkids.

    I would think Florida can be a dismal place if you are alone and do not have friends or family nearby. Tom’s River and Brick retirement communities to me seem to be void of life, and there seems to be allot of sick people living there. I guess if you have health issues these places could be better, but then again I hear that the retired folks would rather go to Hackensack Hospital with a heart condition than anywhere down the NJ shore or Florida.

    Two of my uncles retired to upstate NY have had several heart surgeries. All done in Hackensack, they won’t go anywhere else, since there is apparently not to many decent Hospitals upstate.

  29. Mike says:

    Wonder if OB can jumpstart a car never mind housing

  30. gary says:

    I’d rather be dead on the corner of 148th Street and Amsterdam Avenue than alive in Toms River or Brick.

  31. Shore Guy says:

    I predict that the press will describe any negative housing news as “unexpected.”

  32. Shore Guy says:

    I also predict that, aside from the WSJ and Fox, the press will describe any glimmer of life inthe housing market as a vindication of the shovel-cash-at-the-problem policies of the Obama Administration.

  33. Juice Box says:

    Spotted in the Clinton Station Diner in Clinton, NJ: a “garbage omelette” with “anything the cook can find.”

    http://craphound.com/images/x2_8eb3875.jpeg

  34. gary says:

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Seeking to circumvent congressional opposition, President Barack Obama will promote a series of executive branch steps aimed at jumpstarting the economy this week, beginning with new rules to make it easier for homeowners to refinance their mortgages.

    An administration official said the housing initiative will help homeowners with little or no equity in their homes refinance by cutting the cost of doing so and removing caps for deeply underwater borrowers. The new rules apply to homeowners with federally guaranteed mortgages who are current on their payments.

    Ok, so he will flank the branch of government that creates legislation as well as choosing who gets a life jacket and who doesn’t.

  35. Shore Guy says:

    Gary,

    Any thoughts about this?

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204422404576596630897409182.html

    snip

    With an abundance of workers to choose from, employers are demanding more of job candidates than ever before. They want prospective workers to be able to fill a role right away, without any training or ramp-up time.

    In other words, to get a job, you have to have that job already. It’s a Catch-22 situation for workers—and it’s hurting companies and the economy

    snip

  36. Shore Guy says:

    “Grim needs a costume like this:”

    Or maybe Clot. He can go around as Oblivion Man.

  37. 3B says:

    #27 gary: The sellers are going screaming into the night, and it is difficult to make heads or tails if you will of what is going on in the housing market right now, or to make any kind of intelligent decesion.

    For instance in the land of Unicorns prices have come down substantially in many cases (my unscientific calculations estimate around 20% since peak). I am seeing closed prices in some instances with 2 handles and low 3’s. Some appear to be decent with only cosmetic type improvements needed, others are absolute horror shows. For me to busy at this point I would not want to do a gut an rehab. Others that have closed at much lower prices than peak in goos shape, but still more than I would be wiling to pay. Others have closed at prices where I think they buyers are crazy, and why would they pay that price for that house, when they could have gotten this other similar one for 50k less.

    Of course taxes on all of these are starting at K.

    In the land above the land of Unicorns (Oradell which is currently involved in a nasty regional school funding fight with River Edge), prices have also come down in many instances around 20% or so from peak levels, but still too high for what I would pay. There are sections of the town where prices have come down more, but I would not move there (down by the bus depot etc.) (Other areas the asking prices have barely budged 450K on Oradell Avenue??? No Thanks.) In my opinion these asking prices a are still 50 to 75k over where they should be. I see listings at 450K with pictures with last winters snow still on the ground. Another one I had been watching for months at 450K was re listed recently as new with an asking price of 449K!!!!! sellers In Oradell seem to be more delusional than Ridgewood, Glen Rock or Wyckoff, where I have seen big declines in asking prices. Of course taxes in Oradell too, starting at 10k. So that is teh alndscape where we are right now.

  38. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [16] meat

    Pretty much everything I teach is individual level (tackling, evading and movement, passing). I am not even working on shooting. Some rudimentary teaching on where to be on the field generally, but the primary lesson is “run to the ball” on defense and push it hard and fast downfield on offense.

    I take into consideration that being able to perform maradonnas and scissor moves is hard at this level, and I tell her to be quick rather than tricky. There is one girl on her team that has fancy footwork, but while she is dazzling the defender, the defender gets tired of it and just tackles her. She is constantly getting stripped of the ball. Another one, will make some turns and cuts but is much more successful because she pushes fast and battles through tackles.

    ATEOTD, I am not trying to develop a prodigy. But I want her to be competent enough so that she is confident in herself and enjoying the game. If she has talent, it will come.

  39. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [35] shore

    That is similar to my costume. My 8YO wants me to be Batman and they went and got me the costume. So I guess I am Batman this year.

  40. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [9] meat,

    FWIW, I am going with the Magpies on default (Jabreel also being a fan), and the fact that it peeves Fabius.

    I gotta say though, if I were going on unis, I’d probably be a Gooner. Those barcodes are butt ugly, and the sponsor has got to go.

  41. gary says:

    Shore [36],

    Let me sum it up: when my boss asks me to jump, I ask him, how high. I had to remote in yesterday to test a weekend application release. I get paid for 40 hours even though I work close to 50 hours and my “salary” is 70% of what it was five years ago. And don’t forget, no 401K, no health insurance, no sick or personal days… nothing. Why am I working and others aren’t? Because I accepted the new reality and most people refuse to adjust. End of story.

  42. Shore Guy says:

    “I accepted the new reality ”

    Gary,

    Sort of like this?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdFLPn30dvQ

  43. Nicholas says:

    I’m looking at a -7.2% YoY for Bowie, MD although I saw a small uptick in North Laurel, MD of a few percent for the month of August. The uptick in laurel has shown a huge reversal in September though.

    My guess for August nationally will be between -5% and -7% drop in house prices year over year.

  44. Juice Box says:

    Vatican chimes in an echo’s some predictions found on this blog namely globalism and There will be Blood.

    Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace

    TOWARDS REFORMING
    THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL AND MONETARY SYSTEMS
    IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL PUBLIC AUTHORITY

    Quote: From the announcement.

    In a world on its way to rapid globalization, the reference to a world Authority becomes the only horizon compatible with the new realities of our time and the needs of humankind. However, it should not be forgotten that this development, given wounded human nature, will not come about without anguish and suffering.

    Original Found here.

    http://www.oecumene.radiovaticana.org/en1/Articolo.asp?c=531752

  45. Anon E. Moose says:

    Re: Yesterday’s Thread;

    Buy your very own Pompton Lake?

  46. Anon E. Moose says:

    Re: [6];

    There are still more sellers than buyers. … “[Buyers] have to be patient until the right home comes along,” said Ryan Haagenson, a sales agent with Re/Max Results in Minneapolis. “And ready to pull the trigger when it does.”

    Donut-eater. I have a question – if buying is so much better than renting, why do all used house shills lease their cars?

  47. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [46] moose

    2 words: successor liability.

  48. Dan in debt..... says:

    Gary,

    Of course no companies want to train. That would imply the people already there know what they’re doing if they trained.

  49. Anon E. Moose says:

    OT – saw an interesting conversation about an asset not selling at an asking price of $95k (consensus there put it closer to $55k; but consensus is always below market). Asset was subsequently taken “off the market” by listing it at $250k. Seller says he’ll enjoy the asset rather than “give it away”, and is confident he’ll sell it for $1MM in 20 years. Unfortunately, so am I… http://www.argentinepost.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/Inflation.jpg

  50. spyderjacks says:

    Whatever the motivation for owners to reduce their prices, or hold firm, it doesn’t really matter. In another 10 years they will start dropping like flies. Their heirs will get to maintain the house, pay taxes, etc. – and this will get old fast – and the prices will start to move. Until then – You will either be happy, or not. But if you want to cash out… you need to drop the price.

  51. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [31] [prior thread] fab,

    At the risk of showing my ignorance of all things UK soccer, half of that was meaningless to me. So for the reasons I mentioned, I chose Newcastle.

    Now from what I saw, your comparison is good. Being a Sox fan is probably good training. So be it. Besides, I am a newcomer to the UK football bandwagons, and can’t see myself reflexively shouting “Man U” as so many americans seem to do. Strikes me as silly as the folks who walk around with Yankees caps even though they don’t consider themselves fans.

    Now, since I have opened up a new thread for our trash talk, I will ask you this: Give me a little time to figure out how the structure over there works, and who’s who. Not even sure I could watch their games here without some special cable package. And I don’t know the orgin of Geordies or Toon yet (heck, finally got off my duff to google Gooner only recently). Until I am up to speed, gotta stick with Clot for trash talk; I’d be useless.

  52. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [51] jacks

    That is about as succinct a description of the reality as I have heard yet.

  53. Dan in debt..... says:

    On a side note…..

    Refinanced mortgage with a 7 year ARM at 3% and only costs were $350 appraisal and $100 net all recording/title/servicing costs after credits from mortgage co.

    Got new car with 2.9% financing.

    Can you finance a gun purchase? I need more debt!!!! The American Delusion!!!!!!

  54. Anon E. Moose says:

    Nom [52];

    Even if you didn’t ask for it if you have the base-level “variety” cable package you probably have Fox Soccer Channel somewhere in the low 3-digit channel numbers. They carry lots of Premier League games. YES Network aslo began airing Arsenal last year.

  55. 3B says:

    A quick scan of the new mtg re-fi plan, shows that so called owners who are qualified to take advantage of the plan (must be current on mtg, and only good for mtg’s taken out by May of 2009) will save about $2500 a year. IS that really that big f a difference to those people, and will that really jump start the economy?? just asking.

  56. funnelcloud says:

    Gary # 25

    Sell said, one more thing I’d like to add.
    Ever notice that in today’s market that there is a large inventory of “real estate broker owned” properties. There’s just one more reason home prices are not falling enough to spark interest. The agent owners are going to be the kickers and screamers.

  57. Painhrtz - I ain't dead yet says:

    Dan sure you can it is called a credit card? One of my buddy’s wants to go all nompound by charging up 100K in ammo and guns then going into bankruptcy. His reasoning, they can’t take em once they are off the rack unless it is the FBI

  58. daddyo says:

    Brigadoon started up with the full-on Brazilian soccer method for the 2nd grade teams this year, so I guess my son will be the test case for Brazil vs. UK Elite. 4 days a week, for the entire fall season, Brazilian trainers doing everything. Even game-day Sundays are trainer run. While I’m not a fan of how they run game-day, the rest of the program has been very well executed. You can definitely see the ball control improvements over almost every kid in the “academy”.

    Better ball control has translated to more confident kids, but I would agree they definitely do not focus much at all on defense attacks.

  59. JJ says:

    Actually there it is very hard to find a good candidate. And being unemployed is a big red flag. The good workers from late 2008 to 2010 who got laid off in mass lay-offs got re-hired. The ones still unemployed are the unemployable. Now the recent lay-offs I have to know reason. For instance had a candidate from a company that did lay-offs of 5% of staff. However, buddy who is SVP there told me he picked the worst 5% to let go. In smaller lay-offs, lets say company goes synergy goal is to cut headcount 5% in 2012 anyone let go is let go for strategic reasons such as very overpaid for job title or incompetent. 2009 was a great time to hire lots of quality people at good prices. Bottom line it is not that hard to get a job if you are qualified. Trouble is 90% of people unemployed six months or longer are not qualified, lazy or don’t have many connections.

  60. JJ says:

    How does waxing your balls and pubes Brazillian style make you a better soccer player?

    daddyo says:
    October 24, 2011 at 12:21 pm
    Brigadoon started up with the full-on Brazilian soccer method for the 2nd grade teams this year, so I guess my son will be the test case for Brazil vs. UK Elite. 4 days a week, for the entire fall season, Brazilian trainers doing everything. Even game-day Sundays are trainer run. While I’m not a fan of how they run game-day, the rest of the program has been very well executed. You can definitely see the ball control improvements over almost every kid in the “academy”.

    Better ball control has translated to more confident kids, but I would agree they definitely do not focus much at all on defense attacks.

  61. Shore Guy says:

    “a newcomer to the UK football ”

    If football is not played on a gridiron, it is just kickball.

  62. Shore Guy says:

    61,

    I think the threat of being waxed increases one’s speed and agility.

  63. jj (20)-

    Wrong. Playing sports has actually focused my kid (and a lot of others I know) on studying even harder and even more.

    My kid is currently considering going to dental school or med school. Also plays college lacrosse. I’ll get back to you when she decides which route to take.

    One thing for sure: I’ll shoot her myself if she shows any sign of joining your den of thieves on WS.

  64. juice (33)-

    This is my local diner. All of us here know better than to eat at that ptomaine tavern.

  65. Shore Guy says:

    Hey, Granny. Put down the rock, keep your hands in sight, and don’t move:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/8846558/Nasa-launches-sting-operation-to-retrieve-tiny-moon-fragment-from-73-year-old-grandmother.html

    Heaven forbid we use investigatory assets to arrest people who engaged in financial crimes leading to the crash.

  66. shore (37)-

    I need no costume to portray Oblivion Man. I AM Oblivion Man.

  67. Anon E. Moose says:

    JJ [60];

    I don’t buy it. There is a pecking order of employers. Fortune 100’s with top of market salary and plantim benes can afford to play the “Unemployed need not apply” game. Its just about numbers for them — they have to thin out the herd of resumes that the BA-in-Art-History types that populate HR have to read. Having interacted with the latter, I submit that the boss would be just as well served throwing out any resume with an odd number of letters in the last and/or first name and reading the rest, but I guess Art History majors need jobs too. They’re probably cute and bubbly.

    But if the top of the market play a shuffle-up game, that opens a position below with a far less desirable employer (otherwise they wouldn’t have lost the employee) that needs to be filled. Those guys can’t afford to play too hard to get, because they don’t have the time and resources devoted to HR, nor the ability to draw such a large pool of applicants in the first place.

    Let me just say that the long-term unemployed have a problem or a presumption that they need to overcome, but its just a presumption. Sometimes, like home sellers, the problem is simply overcome by adjusting price expectations downward.

  68. Anon E. Moose says:

    Meat [65];

    One thing for sure: I’ll shoot her myself if she shows any sign of joining your den of thieves on WS.

    Here’s something to warm your heart: “Guess what, daddy? I got a job after school answering phones at a local real estate office!”

  69. plume (41)-

    You think the current Magpie strip is ugly? Check the road kit from the Championship year:

    http://www.myfootballkits.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/cache/849_thumbzoom.jpg

    You have to have a Geordie sense of humor about the Northern Crock sponsorship. It’s just another of the absurdities of following the team.

  70. 3B says:

    #60 JJ You have a beautiful mind.

  71. JJ says:

    Being a dentist stinks, they don’t make much and equipment is a killer. Orthodonist is the way to go. Doctors actually don’t make much. I know a 30 year old NJ doctor pulling down a whoopping 60K a year while wrapping up final part of residency. You don’t start making the big money till like 40. Plus unless you get into sometype of great Medical School that is a state school like Stony Brook you have to pay a fortune of school. Plus you lose income for all those years of medical school. Better of kid skips college and starts work at 18 and use money to buy him a Boars Head or Coke route. He could be making 200K a year from 18-30 while doctors are making peanuts.

    I do think Doctors and Dentists as recently as the 90’s was a very good profession. Nowdays it is just a service. Doctors who are specialists or do high margin non insurance type business like Lasik or Invialign or Botox make a fortune but that is more business skills than doctors skills as procedures require little knowledge it is all the marketing and business skills to get clients.

    There Went Meat says:
    October 24, 2011 at 1:06 pm
    jj (20)-

    Wrong. Playing sports has actually focused my kid (and a lot of others I know) on studying even harder and even more.

    My kid is currently considering going to dental school or med school. Also plays college lacrosse. I’ll get back to you when she decides which route to take.

    One thing for sure: I’ll shoot her myself if she shows any sign of joining your den of thieves on WS.

  72. JJ says:

    Now you are making up stories, we all know phones at real estate offices haven’t rung since 2008.

    Anon E. Moose says:
    October 24, 2011 at 1:16 pm
    Meat [65];

    One thing for sure: I’ll shoot her myself if she shows any sign of joining your den of thieves on WS.

    Here’s something to warm your heart: “Guess what, daddy? I got a job after school answering phones at a local real estate office!”

  73. gary says:

    I’ve had three job offers (contracts) in the last three months based on my ability to persuade. For once, I’ll toot my own f*cking horn. I took the position I currently have because it keeps me from having to take three different rail systems just to get to the east side of Manhattan. That, and this is the best chance to go permanent. And I can access grim’s blog through their firewall! ;) lol!

  74. Shore Guy says:

    I hear that the Obama Administration has a new “homeowner” protection program they are preparing to roll out:

    Assuring Quiet Understanding Among Lenders to Underwater Non-paying Gits

    The benefit of this one is that underwarter borrowers do not ever need to come to the surface to derive benefit from the progtram, which Obama hopes will be endorsed by the Cousteau Society

  75. daddyo says:

    “Orthodonist is the way to go. ”

    You forgot the most important part – no insurance to deal with, straight up cash/check business for now.

  76. chicagofinance says:

    Wasn’t Ptomaine the name of the army mess hall cook from the Beetle Bailey comic strip?

    There Went Meat says:
    October 24, 2011 at 1:10 pm
    juice (33)- This is my local diner. All of us here know better than to eat at that ptomaine tavern.

  77. 3B says:

    #75 gary: I just wrote a novel at post #38, the least you can do is respond with one of your usual eloquent comments. It is expected of you.

  78. chicagofinance says:

    I appear to be wrong ??!
    Cookie Jowls — the mess sergeant, who smokes cigarettes while preparing the mess hall’s questionable menu (infamous for rubbery meatballs and tough-as-rawhide steaks). Except for the presence of cauliflower ears, a prominent heart tattoo, hairy shoulders and perpetual beard stubble, bears a striking resemblance to SFC Snorkel—and has also been known to occasionally beat up on Beetle. Like Sarge, he also loves food.

  79. moose (70)-

    That’s an interesting comment, coming from a two-dollar trick like you.

  80. House Whine says:

    61- well don’t forget that age has a lot to do with really qualified candidates not getting job offers. You can debate that, but not many managers want to be bothered with middle-aged workers. That doesn’t mean that these workers aren’t qualified and it doesn’t mean they aren’t hard working.

  81. I can only hope that when jj suffers the massive coronary that will inevitably befall him, my daughter will be the attending in the ER where they dump his exploding carcass. I’m sure former Wall St BSDs will be at the bottom of her triage list.

  82. Bystander says:

    Note to self- open house boat business in Pompton Lakes. When the flood hits you can drop the kids off at school via dual Evinrudes.

  83. nj escapee says:

    gary, best of luck hope it all goes your way. my son finally landed a permanent job at a big company in Ft Lauderdale. I loaned him my 350z until they can afford a second car :(

  84. Painhrtz - I ain't dead yet says:

    Shore they can call it the Tull Refinance Program.

    Yes, I got it.

    Sitting on a park bench , fine mortgage resets for underwater homeowners sent

  85. JJ says:

    A botched surgery back in the day when doctors were hysterectmy happy for extra cash killed my Mom. I don’t like or trust doctors. I know they are needed. I myself had one emergency operation that if I did not have I would have been kaput so I know they help people. But it is really hit or miss. Going under the knife the incompetence of doctor or lack of caring combined with infections post op is a good way to die. Plenty a nurse tells a patent in ICU you better get out of here before this place kills you.

    Emergency rooms are the worst. I was in one a few weeks ago for my wife. Two asian doctors on duty chit chatting. List was as follows. 1. Drug addict faking for drugs 2. Drug addict faking for drugs 3, wife, 4. 16 year old girl with dad, girl was pregant and just suffered massive miscarriage and was screaming in pain. Just her and her Dad, of course BF no where to be found. He was pleading for help. Doctors who were chit chatting were like rules are we go in order. Wife voluneered to let them go ahead. Nope little doctor said rules are rules as she looked up from paper. Around three hours later after drug addicts scored their pain killers with their fake injuries did they get around to girl. Worse part two drug addicts were talking alout when doctors left room about best plans to fake it and were walking around. I think Emergency room doctors burn out quick. I once in my 20’s had a freekish car accident where as a passenger car hit tree head on at 60 mph and I actually got throw from car. Ouch. anyhow half knocked out, could not move legs and had blood in stool and could not see out of left eye. No one told me anything, not even if my eye was still in head, they were joking and everything, even laughed maybe we take out a spleen or something, finally they are done shove me in a wheelchair and say lets see on xrays what up and left me in hallway for around one hour.

    Give that I am usually extremely lucky it all worked out, I just had a massive bruise pushing against spine that went down, stiches around eye and a few fractured bones and a concussion. I actually was partying in a night club four weeks later!!! Too bad damm girl who drove us home almost bought a tree after that I watch who I drive with. But ER makes it clear, crippled, missing eye, they don’t care. I am sure one good doctor can’t change that and they will be pulled down. I myself have been in emergency room maybe ten times and always a story. Love the time I was next to a gay couple where one tried to slice the wrist in a suicide and gave fake names and the doctor sitched him and guard handcuffed him to bed awaiting police. Funny as all when he had a little scalple he stole from drawer and was trying to cut off handcuff. Another time saw a guy who man was so cut up I did not even recongnize him some drunk kid in a 100 mph accident. Working in an emergency room changes you. My old GF did it and never liked to go out with her straight from work she was always amped up telling me stories about gun shots and stabbings. She ruined valentines day running late and telling me stories how she had her hand in the chest of some drug dealer pumping his heart and hopes he did not have HIV or something. I am like lady, not what I want to hear. Pretty much she turned me off from the medical profession.

    There Went Meat says:
    October 24, 2011 at 2:15 pm
    I can only hope that when jj suffers the massive coronary that will inevitably befall him, my daughter will be the attending in the ER where they dump his exploding carcass. I’m sure former Wall St BSDs will be at the bottom of her triage list.

  86. jj (87)-

    I didn’t know they did brain transplants yet.

    “I myself had one emergency operation that if I did not have I would have been kaput so I know they help people”

  87. JJ says:

    Problem is older workers are often disgruntled. If I have a job paying lets say 90K. I can get someone who is making 72 and pay them 90 and they are very happy. But if I get someone who was making 200K and unemployment ran out and COBRA ran out and is now willing to accept 90k as it is better than nothing. They start out disguntled with a chip on shoulder. Not everyone does but most do. I know I would.

    House Whine says:
    October 24, 2011 at 2:12 pm
    61- well don’t forget that age has a lot to do with really qualified candidates not getting job offers. You can debate that, but not many managers want to be bothered with middle-aged workers. That doesn’t mean that these workers aren’t qualified and it doesn’t mean they aren’t hard working.

  88. Perhaps I should tell my daughter that she should become a WS bean counter if she really wants to do some lasting good for society.

  89. JJ says:

    Thank you, most people assume I have no brain. Speaking of brains I wish Kodak bought Steve Jobs brain now that he is no longer using it.

    There Went Meat says:
    October 24, 2011 at 2:53 pm
    jj (87)-

    I didn’t know they did brain transplants yet.

    “I myself had one emergency operation that if I did not have I would have been kaput so I know they help people”

  90. jj (89)-

    jj, when you get turned out to pasture, it will be by a mob…and you will be at the business end of a pitchfork.

  91. jj (91)-

    Just take some LSD. Jobs had most of his great ideas while tripping.

    Please also live blog here after you drop the acid.

  92. JJ says:

    Now you are making sense. My kids doctor told me she wished she never became a doctor. She said it cost so much, insurance is so much and with three young kids all the maternity leave and nanny costs eat up her whole salary.
    If you think about it medicare and medicad as well as every publicly traded health plan all rely on wall street. She would actually be a benefactor to the health care community. I salute your decision. I look forward to reviwing your daughters resume and we can discuss career options.

    There Went Meat says:
    October 24, 2011 at 2:56 pm
    Perhaps I should tell my daughter that she should become a WS bean counter if she really wants to do some lasting good for society.

  93. Juice Box says:

    re: Orthodonist – Fairleigh Dickinson University had a cheap Dental Medicine program. When I went there as a kid for braces it was like $15 a visit and the students would work on you. Needed less to say better a young hot female student than an old man with a sadistic bent.

  94. JJ says:

    Damm, I should have live blogged Sunday. I was emailing my buddies on field before Jets game. I was on field at start of game. Other has beens like Ralp Macchio, Jimmy Fallon and Keith Hernandez were there. Should have came on this site. I do admit the Jets pissed me off as local affiliate was taking up screen when I should have been on TV. My buddy who I took I usually try to get him some air time as he does shout outs. At least the Jets won. At least Christie Upton, Kate Uptowns sister game me some mad props sideline. All this housing and recession talk can wear a man down. Now all I need to wiggle away into the Jets “GreenRoom” at the next game. That is where the real VIPs go and not the washed up VIPs like Keith Hernandez hang out. I think I saw him try to snort the goal line.

  95. Painhrtz - I ain't dead yet says:

    Meat, Man the thought of live blogging while watching the walls melt would be interesting. I came across one of my space out journals when we moved. Mainly incoherent babble one line stood out. “I’m stopping now, this platypus is pi$$ing me off” what it meant who knows, i just find it very profound.

  96. JJ says:

    Perry the Platypus rocks

  97. NWNJHighlander says:

    I also went to Fairly Ridiculous Dental School for dental visits as a kid. Worked out well. Old friend is finishing a dental school residency at Colombia U, walking out with something like 250k in total student debt, as he already had debt from undergrad, 1st grad degree, and partially completed law school. At least he’s doing cosmetic and elective specialty, I don’t think he’ll ever get out from under the debt burden, and he’s got 3 young kids to boot.

    Recent trip to ER early Oct., for an elderly relative, I drove her there, the ER triage nurse passed on her HIPAA protected information to a shady private ambulance company driver in the lobby who then billed my relative almost 500 bucks for an ambulance ride she never took. Shady ambulance company had all personal info, medical info, all medical insurance info, all Medicare info.

    I’ve worked on and off in HIPAA compliance IT positions since the day HIPAA became law.

    In process of filing civil and criminal charges against the hospital and the ambulance company in attempt to bankrupt the ambulance company, also have attorney and PI looking for other victims so we can go class action and go Federal.

    Holy f**k am I pissed off… no mercy on the bastards who are maliciously billing elderly medical patients.

  98. NWNJHighlander says:

    Colombia, Columbia, whatever.

  99. Double Down says:

    Protestor fails to see irony…

    http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/occupy_wall_street/2011/10/23/2011-10-23_where_vagrants_excons__takers_find_a_home.html

    Zuccotti Park has become a haven for the homeless. Enticed by the allure of free food and a community of open-minded people, increasing numbers are leaving New York’s shelters to join the Occupy Wall Street protesters.

    “We have compassion toward everyone. However, we have certain rules and guidelines,” said Lauren Digioia, 26, a member of the sanitation committee. “If you’re going to come here and get our food, bedding and clothing, have books and medical supplies for no charge, they need to give back,” Digioia said. “There’s a lot of takers here and they feel entitled.”

  100. Painhrtz - I ain't dead yet says:

    There’s a lot of takers here and they feel entitled

    I thought that was the entire lot of them?

  101. Juice Box says:

    re #99- Highlander – So much for the honor system, Congress OMB estimates about $50 Billion a year in Medicare fraud, which of course could be double or triple that. You could spend an entire career in the FBI Tracking Medicare Fraud and still not scratch the surface, as long as the system remains the way it is.

  102. nj escapee says:

    Nom, this should interest you:
    Swiss Banks Said Ready to Reveal Clients
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-24/swiss-banks-said-ready-to-pay-billions-disclose-customer-names.html

  103. Juice Box says:

    re # 104- sure they are and Bradley Birkenfeld is going to get a Congressional medal.

  104. chicagofinance says:

    Great address…..

    Advanstar | 600 Unicorn Park Drive | Woburn, MA 01801

  105. Juice Box says:

    Netflix hammered in after hours. -24% and still dropping.

    I am selling my AMAZON in the morning.

  106. Happy Renter says:

    [93] “Please also live blog here after you drop the acid.”

    And that would differ from a normal day here in what way?

  107. JC says:

    JJ #60: Not always true, especially if the unemployed person is over 50. These days, you can have a background of supporting over 200 users and administering a network by yourself for 3 years and find that a prospective employer won’t hire you because the same job you did just fine before is now “too fast paced for you”, which actually means “Our 20-year-old techs don’t want to work with someone their dad’s age.”

  108. pain (97)-

    We should go bowhunting for platypus sometime.

  109. JJ says:

    2011 Returns

    Municipal debt has returned 8.3 percent this year, beating the 7.6 percent earned in Treasuries, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data. Corporate securities have earned 5.8 percent.

  110. juice (107)-

    Gee, who could’ve predicted that NFLX was in a bubble?

    This is so…shocking and unexpected!

    [sarc off]

  111. Zuccotti Park should be a real lovefest once the snow starts.

  112. I shoulda shorted the crap out of NFLX.

    I don’t even trade anymore. The whole thing is one rigged morass.

  113. JJ says:

    Other issue is what I call the Pyramid Scheme of Staffing.
    Pretty much you have
    21-30
    31-40
    41-49
    50-65

    Since life epectancy is lets say 75 you should have equal amount of population in each range at work.

    However, lets take a large account department of 100 people as an example.
    21-30 (50 employees, majority of low level staff)
    31-40 (30 employees mainly AVP/VP levels)
    41-49 (2-5 employees, mainly second tier VPs or Managing Directors)
    50-65 (1-5 employees, CFO and maybe Senior Controller)

    Notice as you age you are expected to apply only for higher level head of department jobs and staff are all mainly under 40. There are simply alot less higher level jobs for 40+ employees. Meanwhile the 20 something staff don’t want to sit with a 50 year old guy in the cube with them. Also 50 year old guy doesnt want to sit with kids all day ending a kids salary.

    That is why the Peter Principal is a killer, we are promoted till our level of incomptence. Finally, we are SVP in corner office in a demanding job with a huge salary and company is downsizing you have a medical issue and can’t keep up and out you go. Corporate America does not allow you to take I will take a demotion to a less job so out you go. Other companies think same way. This is why baby boomers are hanging onto their corner office, they can’t leave as once they are gone they are gone forever.

    JC says:
    October 24, 2011 at 5:06 pm
    JJ #60: Not always true, especially if the unemployed person is over 50. These days, you can have a background of supporting over 200 users and administering a network by yourself for 3 years and find that a prospective employer won’t hire you because the same job you did just fine before is now “too fast paced for you”, which actually means “Our 20-year-old techs don’t want to work with someone their dad’s age.”

  114. JJ says:

    I know a girl who got killed on Netflix, IB bans short term trading or shorting stocks or buying puts. She had 300K long Netflix in July and had to stay long or quit her job.

    There Went Meat says:
    October 24, 2011 at 5:10 pm
    juice (107)-

    Gee, who could’ve predicted that NFLX was in a bubble?

    This is so…shocking and unexpected!

    [sarc off]

  115. yo says:

    This people that got laid off,some have lots of experience and knowledge willing to take a pay cut.Now ,they are called unempoyable.They were employed before greed imploded.

    JJ says:
    October 24, 2011 at 12:54 pm
    Actually there it is very hard to find a good candidate. And being unemployed is a big red flag. The good workers from late 2008 to 2010 who got laid off in mass lay-offs got re-hired. The ones still unemployed are the unemployable. Now the recent lay-offs I have to know reason. For instance had a candidate from a company that did lay-offs of 5% of staff. However, buddy who is SVP there told me he picked the worst 5% to let go. In smaller lay-offs, lets say company goes synergy goal is to cut headcount 5% in 2012 anyone let go is let go for strategic reasons such as very overpaid for job title or incompetent. 2009 was a great time to hire lots of quality people at good prices. Bottom line it is not that hard to get a job if you are qualified. Trouble is 90% of people unemployed six months or longer are not qualified, lazy or don’t have many connections.

  116. nwnj says:

    “107.Juice Box says:
    October 24, 2011 at 5:00 pm
    Netflix hammered in after hours. -24% and still dropping.

    That’s going to be great fodder for the OWS crowd. That was an epic pump and dump.

  117. nwnj (118)-

    Bojangles rushing headlong into a massive refi of negative equity just as prime MBS are imploding. That should be another OWS talking point, but I don’t think it will be.

  118. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “There is no emphasis on tackling or dealing with defensive tactics.”
    Touch on ball is an essential skill, a feel, that takes years to develop to the level required in college and higher. I can teach a monkey to tackle a b!tch in like 24 hrs, wont make a good player. As a coach, im working on ball skills 90% of time through 14 yrs old. Passing and defense becomes obvious after that level, with focus on containment and herding players wide or middle as appropriate. Only us coaches value hard tackling, best defenders position themselves properly don’t need to do it also many times a hard tackler can’t be taught, you teach them the touch and let them decide if they have heart or mental toughness or not, most of that is developed off field though.

  119. veets (120)-

    Agreed. It’s too bad that the hard tackle in the middle of the pitch (even when cleanly pulled off) is pretty much a guaranteed yellow these days. I’ve found most coaches- including my son’s- teach only positioning in order to try and intercept passes. Going to ground is regarded as a last-ditch play.

  120. Neanderthal Economist says:

    True more refs and coaches who need to be tackled than Id care to harp on. Ironically, the problem with many of the problemed coaches and refs is the same every time. They played baseball, basketball and football as youth and mistakenly assume the underlying fundamental concepts are congruent.

  121. Confused in NJ says:

    ..Islamic law for Libya: Will we end up missing Gadhafi?
    By The Week’s Editorial Staff | The Week – 7 hrs ago…

    Libya’s interim leader declares that the new Libya will be based on Sharia law — and critics of the war are quick to say, “I told you so”

    The head of Libya’s transitional government, Mustafa Abdul-Jalil, announced on Sunday that post-Gadhafi Libya will be structured according to Sharia law. “We are an Islamic state,” he told a crowd in Benghazi. He then lifted a ban on polygamy, and declared that the charging of interest on loans would be forbidden, in accordance with Sharia. Jalil had said before that Islamic traditions would be respected in the new Libya, but his latest pronouncement was more radical than expected. Will the U.S. and Europe actually come to regret helping Libya’s rebels destroy the regime of Moammar Gadhafi?

  122. NWNJHighlander says:

    I’d like to say I’m reading and enjoying all of the posts regarding soccer coaching. My great uncle was a soccer coach from the old NYC ethnic leagues and elevated right up to the Cosmos striker coach in early 70’s alongside Pele.

    I also went through the NJ traveling soccer program and club teams in high school, but man, while yes we had options to do camps with foreign trainers, we didn’t have “Brasilian trainers” running every day practices! Are these trainers volunteer coaches/fathers of the players on the team? Are these towns hiring trainers for the select/travel/club teams?

    Granted I had coaches who were in their youth U-17 club players in England, Ireland, Italy, Argentina and Yugoslavia, but it was pure luck as all were either fathers or uncles of my teammates on the traveling and club teams.

    My team mates from those days were the draft picks in the first four years of the MLS. It’s insanely difficult for native born white guys to break into the MLS now, it’s even hard for ex-collegiate and ex-MLS native born players to try out and make the club teams in North Jersey, the local adult league team in Pompton Plains has ex pro players from 4 Central/South American countries and several ex-pro players from Africa and one or two U-17’ers from Europe. My buddy spent 4 seasons in the MLS and only made the squad cause he volunteered to be a Pete Rose style player/coach and do all the paperwork.

  123. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Confused 123 as I posted soon after his death, better the devil you know. Out of the frying pan into the fire.

  124. Mikeinwaiting says:

    As the Arab spring progresses with lose secular governments & get Sharia law. We did Iraqi for them, just give it a year with no U.S. presence. The Saudis must be getting pretty nervous.

  125. Juice Box says:

    What happened to Jamil? Did Grim give him the boot? Who else can we kick around now that Jamil is gone?

  126. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [124] highlander,

    Brigadoon’s WSA has a half-million dollar budget and a VP in charge of player development for travel soccer. They hire trainers from several outfits to run practices (Brasa trains my girl’s team, others are Sonesoccer, USA Soccer, and UK Elite, which used to train in-town teams.). It is a real racket here in NJ from what I have observed.

    The dads do help, but with all the grief volunteers get in NJ, they get scared off. You have to have coaching licenses, criminal background checks, and all manner of certifications and training. I thought about it for all of 5 seconds before I said screw it, I don’t have the time or need the liability. So the families write checks, and in Brigadoon, travel soccer easily will cost over a grand for a season (still a lot cheaper than her prior sport).

    For all my pride in my girl’s very good showing this weekend over three games, there are reasons (which I won’t get into here) that I consider it more of a curse than a blessing that she made the A level travel team in Brigadoon. There are some things that happened which made me see the ugly side of this racket.

  127. chicagofinance says:

    The End Is Nigh (JJ Aviation Edition):

    NEWARK, N.J. — An alert Transportation Security Administration (TSA) screener at New Jersey’s Newark Airport apparently spotted a sex toy stuffed inside a passenger’s luggage — and offered the traveler some encouragement.

    “Get your freak on girl” was found written in black ink on the back of a TSA notice, passenger Jill Filipovic revealed on her Twitter page.

    “Just unpacked my suitcase and found this note from TSA,” she tweeted. “Guess they discovered a ‘personal item’ in my bag. Wow.”

    She identified the item in an email to New York Magazine: “It was a $15 bullet vibe from Babeland, about the most basic sex toy you can imagine. It has now been officially retired, since I have no idea if the TSA agents manhandled it.”

    She discovered the note on Sunday after she landed in Dublin, she said. It was apparently put in her luggage the day before. She wrote on her blog, Feministe, that the message was “wildly inappropriate” but she “died laughing” about it in her hotel room.

    But she told FOXNews.com in an email Monday that she was transitioning to being “pretty disturbed” by the note. She said TSA agents are given a lot of authority with little oversight.

    She wrote that she suspected “whoever left the note felt comfortable doing so (I also suspect that they believed most women would be embarrassed to be ‘caught’ with personal items and wouldn’t file a complaint),” she wrote in the email. “That is certainly cause for concern.”

    TSA said in a statement to FOXNews.com that there was no evidence to suggest one of its agents was behind the note.

    Greg Soule, a TSA spokesman, said Filipovic had not filed a complaint about the incident, but the TSA “takes all allegations of inappropriate conduct seriously and is investigating this claim.”

  128. chicagofinance says:

    Where the fcuk is pret?

    WSJ
    Go West, Investment Banker

    Hello Cleveland! Regional Lenders Grab Veteran Talent in Push for Business

    As an investment banker at Bank of America Corp. for 10 years, Jef Fowler believed he had it made.

    He was part of a team arranging financing for big leveraged buyouts, shuttling between London, New York and the bank’s headquarters in Charlotte, N.C. It was the life he had envisioned as a teenager growing up in Chicago and watching the iconic 1987 movie “Wall Street.”

    In July, though, the 42-year-old Mr. Fowler left the second-largest U.S. bank by assets, where he was a director covering private equity, and moved to Cleveland. He joined KeyCorp, a regional bank with a loan portfolio a tenth the size of Bank of America’s, to do a similar job.

    The deals at KeyCorp are smaller—and so is the paycheck—but becoming a big fish in the relatively small pond of regional banking has its advantages. In his new role, he can take on a larger role in the bank, while enjoying the benefits of living in the Midwest.

    “It’s very entrepreneurial,” says Mr. Fowler. At Bank of America, he says he was one among legions of bankers focused on “elephant hunting” for billion-dollar deals that have become increasingly scarce. By contrast, at KeyCorp, “there’s a real energy and excitement here,” he says.

    Wall Street has long been a young person’s game—a sink-or-swim culture with a high burnout rate. It is not uncommon for traders and bankers to spend a couple of decades at a large bank and then bolt for a hedge fund, a second career or even early retirement. Now, with layoffs increasing, some are also taking the option of going to smaller banks.

    The New York state comptroller’s office predicted this month that Wall Street would cut 10,000 jobs by the end of 2012, bringing the total losses since January 2008 to 32,000. Bank of America last month announced global staff cuts of 30,000, or 10% of the firm’s workforce.

    Meanwhile, regional banks like KeyCorp, Fifth Third Bancorp in Cincinnati, SunTrust Banks Inc. in Atlanta and U.S. Bancorp in Minneapolis, have been adding bankers for stock, bond and loan offerings, as well as mergers and acquisitions. KeyCorp, for example, has increased its investment banking unit by 36% since the beginning of 2010 and Fifth Third has 20 investment bankers, up from zero a year ago.

    Investment-banking generates hefty fees that could help the smaller banks offset declining interest income from their core business of lending. “It’s a great opportunity for the KeyCorps of the world to lift talent,” says Michael Karp, a managing partner at executive search firm Options Group.

    Skeptics say they have seen this before: a wave of Wall Street hiring by regional banks, often through acquisitions, followed by disappointment. In the 1990s and early 2000s, regional banks spent more than $3 billion to buy brokerage firms but barely dented the dominant big banks. “The (regional) banks have tried to do this through many cycles,” says David Konrad, a banking analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc. “They get in, then they pull back out.”

    KeyCorp, which ranks 24th in assets among the nation’s banks, got into investment banking in 1998 with the purchase of McDonald & Co. But this is its biggest push yet, says Randy Paine, who co-heads the business and joined KeyCorp with the McDonald purchase. Since the beginning of 2010, KeyCorp has added 150 people to its capital market and investment banking unit, taking the ranks there to around 565, Mr. Paine says.

    The regional banks’ strategy is to use their relationships with thousands of mid-sized companies—those with revenue of up to $2.5 billion—to sell them investment-banking services. For those borrowers, regional banks typically face less competition from their larger rivals. Still, they have a long way to go. None are among the top 30 banks for mergers and acquisitions involving mid-sized companies this year, according to Dealogic, a research firm.

    Bob Marcus, a former capital markets banker at Citigroup Inc., joined Fifth Third’s office in Atlanta in early 2010 to build a team of investment bankers. He has hired 20 people, many of whom previously worked for large banks.

    “It’s very difficult for (top Wall Street banks) to focus on a $500 million company, but these are our core clients, really,” Mr. Marcus says. With larger banks cutting staff, “it’s been very easy for me to find bankers,” he says.

    That is even though pay can be much lower. Bankers moving from New York to a regional bank can expect a salary cut of 50% to 75%, but they can make some of that back if they generate enough revenue at their new firms, says Gustavo Dolfino, president of New York recruiting firm WhiteRock Group.

    Fifth Third recently landed Turkington Industries Ltd. as a client. This month, it provided the U.K.-based maker of baking equipment with financing of $15 million, beating out Bank of America and Royal Bank of Canada, says Turkington Chief Executive Stuart Ashman.

    Mr. Ashman says he initially favored the bigger banks with international reach because Turkington, whose main operations are in North Carolina, exports to Asia and the Middle East. But he chose Fifth Third because it offered better services such as foreign-exchange hedging and management of retirement savings plans. “They spent a lot of time getting to know us as a customer, and their relationship managers were wonderful,” Mr. Ashman says.

    One risk for the regional banks: A flood of Wall Street investment bankers can cause culture clashes at financial firms dominated for decades by less-flashy loan officers. And if the U.S. economy slips into a double-dip recession, new deal activity could drop dramatically, prompting banks to dump recent hires to cut costs.

    The third quarter exposed some of those risks: Several banks, including KeyCorp, reported investment-banking income declines in the period ended Sept. 30 compared with a year earlier. Still, the gambit paid off in the first half for KeyCorp, which saw investment banking and capital markets income more than double to $85 million.

    For Mr. Fowler, the choice was not just about the lifestyle and lower housing costs but the prospect of having a long career at the bank. “This could be my next 20 years,” he says.

    —Aaron Lucchetti contributed to this article

  129. plume (128)-

    Bottom line, you will probably need to get your kid out of the Brigadoon club sooner rather than later if you want to see her continue to progress.

    I can give you a few options next time we talk. I have no dog in the hunt as far as U-8 girls’ soccer goes, so I can give you straight up facts based on experience as a consumer and as a coach.

  130. Fabius Maximus says:

    #41 Nom,

    Why would it peeve me. If someone wants to beat their head off a brick wall I can advise them that its going to hurt, but who am I to stop them.

  131. Fabius Maximus says:

    Football (soccer, not Rugby with padding) in NE Bergen is crazy, I’m coaching 1st/2nd grade boys and it is a real eye opener. They have an academy come in for Saturday practice and they work through every grade. The acadamy is trying to focus on core skills, but are getting push back from some parents on why they are not focusing on throw ins, corners and tactics for the kindergartners.

    For me kids getting flagged for aggression is not a good thing. I have a few kids that are already at school bully status. I sent one off on Saturday for throwing a punch. In his defense it was to the bigger kid that flattened him the week before. These kids are coming in pumped up looking to impress coach dad. I have the head coaches kid on my team and he has real anger management issues. He can have a good game, but if they lose the scrimmage he storms off the pitch. He’s like a wound up Wayne Rooney.

    Part of the issue at this level is that you have kids that are almost two years apart in age. Parents hold the kid back going into kindergarten. So because of age so they could be in 3rd grade, but they end up going in against kids that are just scraping the cut off for 1st grade. It is very tempting for them to go overboard against a kid that they have a big height/weight advantage over.

  132. Fabius Maximus says:

    #71 Clot

    Your worst kit has to be the 2008 Barney purple special.

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