What to make of “hyperlocal” recoveries? Noise? Something more?

From US News:

Are Things Looking Up for the Housing Market?

For-sale home inventories are dropping nationally while median sales prices are rising, according to new data released Wednesday, a rare but encouraging sign of renewed optimism in America’s feeble housing market.

Inventories declined 3.48 percent from September to October, according to Realtor.com, and are down 20.77 percent from one year ago. Median list prices, which have remained essentially unchanged since June, were up 2.65 percent nationally year over year.

“These developments can be viewed as a positive sign that the market has stabilized and in some parts of the country, has begun to recover,” the report said. “Lower inventories combined with generally stable list prices can be seen as a positive sign that the overall market is holding its own.”

To be sure, there’s still plenty of variation across the country. After all, real estate is nothing if not hyper-local. Markets remain fragile, particularly those with high unemployment rates and large numbers of seriously delinquent borrowers, which threatens to add to an already gigantic shadow inventory.

Still, some markets have begun to rally and show nascent signs of recovery, even as others continue to struggle. Parts of Florida, some of the hardest hit by the housing market decline, have consistently posted improving list prices and reduced inventories. Indeed, median list prices remain well below their pre-crisis peaks. Florida held the top five spots for markets with the largest year-over-year median list price increases in October. The Fort Myers and Miami metro areas saw the largest year-over-year increases, posting 33 and 25 percent price upticks respectively.

On the flip side, markets at the epicenter of the original housing market implosion—Las Vegas and parts of California—continue to lag. In addition, markets such as Chicago and Detroit, which didn’t see the meteoric run-up in building and home prices, are now experiencing some of the most severe price declines. Home prices in those midwestern cities sunk almost 13 and 11 percent respectively.

While the housing market still has a lot of ground to make up, key indicators are beginning to point in the right direction, experts say. Regional variation will persist as some markets fare better and others lag due to external economic pressures and the continuing fallout from foreclosures, overbuilding, and homeowners with negative equity.

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123 Responses to What to make of “hyperlocal” recoveries? Noise? Something more?

  1. grim says:

    From Reuters:

    Real Estate: Why home prices won’t bottom out

    Watching the U.S. home market struggle to rebound is like listening to children in the back of a car. No, we’re not there yet.

    The National Association of Realtors reported that ten real estate markets are “leading the nation toward a general recovery and stability of the housing sector,” but myriad problems are going to weigh down the housing market for months to come.

    The lingering malaise in the economy has triggered a new wave of defaults and foreclosures. After five straight quarterly drops, foreclosures nationwide shot up 14 percent from the second to third quarter this year, according to data released by Realtytrac, the foreclosure information service (see link.reuters.com/kaw94s), in October.

    While RealtyTrac doesn’t foresee that the latest foreclosure wave will equal the severity of the 2007-2010 pattern — in which three million borrowers lost their homes — it’s going to slam on the brakes where areas are getting hit the hardest.

    In theory, it should be a good time to buy a home. In the worst-hit areas, properties have lost more than half their value.

    Yet as the average 30-year mortgage rate has slipped below 4 percent, the combination of employment insecurity and unusually tight standards for lending are discouraging buyers en masse. Lenders are asking for extensive income verification and tax returns. One lender I contacted for refinancing even wanted me to get an accountant to certify that I wasn’t lying to the IRS.

    Here are some of the biggest roadblocks:

    –Even in bruised cities where price appreciation is evident, unemployment is still too high. Six out of 10 of the “top turnaround towns” listed by Realtor.com (see link.reuters.com/maw94s) for the third quarter had jobless rates above 10 percent. People can’t buy homes if they’re not working or soon to lose their jobs. Those cities, which include four of the largest cities in Florida, still have a long way to go to recover from the housing bust.

    –Although at a record low, the home mortgage rate may still be high relative to home prices. This may sound counterintuitive, but research from the Leuthold Group in their November newsletter shows that a “real” mortgage rate — which factors in the falling market value of the home prices — is 8 percent. Leuthold says that real cost of buying must include the 4 percent interest rate and the 3.9 percent average home prices decline over the past 12 months. That cost is still scaring away buyers.

    –The combination of unemployment, high housing inventory and foreclosures is hurting places where there wasn’t an excessive price run-up. Realtor.com found that the largest year-over year median listing price decreases through October were in cities like Chicago, Detroit and Atlanta. This three-punch combination will continue to ravage markets where there’s a sluggish economy

  2. grim says:

    From Perez Hilton:

    Jersey Woman Who Rented Property From Whoopi Goldberg Calls Her A ‘Merciless, Cruel Woman’

    64-year-old Suzanne Lindsay is a former tenant of a property owned by Whoopi Goldberg in West Orange, New Jersey…..and she does NOT have nice things to say about her former landlord.

    According to the woman, she was evicted from her home after living there for 40 years because she fell behind on property taxes, and she’s blaming it all on Whoopi.

  3. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  4. Ted danson says:

    #2.

    Did Her!

  5. grim says:

    Ritholtz not a happy camper (posted in full, fair use be damned, just too good)

    The US is Now a Corporate Monarchy

    I did an interview with a print reporter yesterday about what has been going on with lack of prosecutions, the banks, and Wall Street in general. We discussed the corrupt exchanges and HFT.

    I dropped lots of F-Bombs, called out cowards and crooks and held nothing back. (“That fucker belongs in prison; this son of a bitch should hang“)

    Afterwards, she commented that I seemed angry.

    I wrote back suggesting that I am a happy dude, and its not Anger — its closer to an ineffable sadness that comes once you realize you have lost something dear. I am old enough to have grown up when this nation was a Democracy, but that era has passed. We now live in a nation no longer run by the citizens — it is a Corporatocracy — and that makes me sadder than angry . . .

    She suggests perhaps a better word is outraged.

    I wonder: Why have the Europeans figured out they are getting screwed, and we haven’t? Why are they taking to the streets en masse, while we seem to be watching our own control over our own futures slip from our hands almost as if from afar?

    In America, we are too busy dropping the kids off at soccer, running around looking for sales and bargains, racing to keep our heads above water. We seem to forget to get outraged. Our control over our once Democracy — the one we had a revolution against a monarchy dictating decisions from afar — slips away from us. Not with a bang, not even with a whimper, but with a 1000s acts of gradual ceding of power to the new Monarch. We have given up hard won rights to a coordinated attack from all three branches of government; Our Congress has become the legislative branch of eBay — Congressmen are auctioned off to the highest bidder; they even have a Buy It Now button to get specific legislation passed. The executive branch has fallen under the sunk cost fallacy, afraid to prosecute banks because we spent so many billions bailing them out. It turns out that even our once venerable Supreme Court is just as corrupted, with lobbyists partying with Justices and backdooring ethics by hiring their wives.

    In short, our new overlords are enormously well funded, well connected, relentless and perhaps most of all, patient. This new King was not appointed by primogeniture, or even Divine Right, but by acquiring enough profits in the free market that they can buy control over society, even as they thwart that free market ideal for their own ends. We have become, in short, a Corporate Monarchy.

    The right question isn’t why am I angry, sad and outraged. The proper question is, why aren’t you?

  6. Mike says:

    Even if there is a turnaround in unemployment, the fortune 500 company, wall street, government, and other jobs with perks, medical benefits, six figure salaries will be lost forever. The newly rehired will be making a third of what they use to make paying for their own medical. “Why home prices won’t bottom out”

  7. Noah says:

    My client’s building 2 homes in East Hampton – one that will list around $5.5MM and the other a little over $10MM. I don’t know the market there, but he has high confidence in pricing stability and says transactions for new construction are showing rising prices. Can anyone confirm or debunk? This seems to be the ultimate type of hyper-local market. Both are south of the highway.

  8. Juice Box says:

    Barry should take out some street justice. I’ll send him sock whdn
    He is in prision.

  9. JJ says:

    Hampton high end homes sell very quick and at good money. Hampton bays type 100 by 100 type houses not near water rot away.

    A lot of high end Hampton homes are celebs 3rd or 4 homes and are bought for cash.

    Damm Occupy folks driving me nuts at work. There chanting is interupting my morning bagel.

  10. grim says:

    Freddie Mac Homesteps has a REO in Hampton Bays for $160k

    They are running some kind of fall sale on REOs, you could probably get it for next to nothing down.

  11. grim says:

    11 – there you go

  12. The Original NJ Expat says:

    median sales prices are rising

    Mix shift, that’s all.

    Look at a small town blue-ribbony town like Glen Rock (TWO train lines into Manhattan). There are 75 or so single family houses for sale about a dozen of them priced above 700K. There was a time when there wasn’t a dozen TOTAL single families for sale in Glen Rock, and one or none would be at the high end. Most high end houses in Glen Rock used to sell when one neighbor knocked on another’s door and made him an offer.

    Mix shift: The size of the pie stays the same, but the size of individual pieces changes. More bigger, nicer houses coming to market equals higher median prices. In a better market these properties don’t come on the market in the numbers they’re now available.

  13. grim says:

    Jobless claims killing it, down to 388k

  14. The Original NJ Expat says:

    Before Va-JJ schools me on public transportation, Glen Rock has two train lines into Hoboken, then you have to take the Path into NY, of course.

  15. grim says:

    14 – bye bye burbs?

    All it takes are a couple of multimillion dollar sales in Alpine to kick up the median, no?

  16. JJ says:

    Hampton Bays ain’t the hamptons it is where white trash live. It is dead center and easy to get to be a craphole. The trendy restaurants in Southampton and Easthampton actually have a caller ID block for anyone calling from Hampton Bays

    If you throw a party in Hampton Bays nobody would come. Kinda like when I lived in City and friend rented in Hoboken and invited us to a party. We said really, that is funny ha ha. I barely do Brooklyn

    grim says:
    November 17, 2011 at 8:25 am
    Freddie Mac Homesteps has a REO in Hampton Bays for $160k

    They are running some kind of fall sale on REOs, you could probably get it for next to nothing down.

  17. Painhrtz - I ain't dead yet says:

    yo reading Ezra Klein is like listening to my college professor of history who specialized in the sixties. Closet communist, cumbya drum beating hippie idiot. The pols are bought on both sides, the store has been sold by the employees but nobody told the owners. we are all f*cked, so maintain a lifestyle of comfort as long as you can because we will either be communists or more of a corporate kleptocracy in short order. The US I grew up in is dead. Though no one told the patient yet.

  18. The Original NJ Expat says:

    #17 grim bye bye burbs?

    Yep. Families have been washing out to the suburbs for so many generations almost nobody will notice the tide reversal early on, even as it’s now under way.

  19. 3B says:

    #14 GR another nice town bing destroyed by enormous property taxes.

  20. 3B says:

    #15 And last weeks jobless number revised up, as appers to always be the case.

  21. grim says:

    Stu – how much debt outstanding in GR?

    It was always my understanding the GR taxes were high since they didn’t add new debt to cover current expenses.

    I’d this is the case 3b, taxes are higher, yes, but only because they aren’t playing games. IMHO, isn’t that the more fiscally responsible approach? Towns with significantly lower bills are probably playing games, the music will stop.

    By the way, nobody I ever worked with in GR cared about the taxes. Expectation was always that taxes were steep. It’s the folks I work with everywhere else (morris especially) that fall off the seat when they see a 14k bill.

    If you buy a place an the taxes seem low, don’t bank on them staying that way.

    There are few tax bargains, taxes are equalizing across Jersey and are high everywhere.

  22. The Original NJ Expat says:

    #21 – 3b, High taxes in GR – My inlaws sold in 1992 when the taxes on their house were “only” $13K. Same new owner still lives there. Taxes are now $33K. No additions, house still looks the same on the outside. They probably have the highest taxes in town because the back yard of their nice corner property is actually a buildable lot. So taxes on the house are actually $22K and the taxes on the back yard are $11K.

  23. JJ says:

    Occupy cracks me up they are yelling at parents dropping kids off at the elementary school on Broad Street. Now they are yelling fake fake fake. Even better some girl was crying in my lobby cause she had to push through crowds and they were calling names. Pretty funny stuff.

    Personally people drove to 747s loaded with Jet Fuel into wall street and I was back at work next days so this is a joke to me. However, the muffin guy I like could not set up this morning. And I may have to skip the gym today, what a PITA

  24. grim says:

    The correlation between graduation signs and for sale signs is still highest in GR.

    Move two blocks south into Bloomfield after graduation and save a fortune. Pick the right street and you can still have a view of the gas lights across the road.

  25. The Original NJ Expat says:

    Posts 21 & 24 GR = Glen Rock, not Glen Ridge.

  26. JJ says:

    That house is on a dead end that is commerically zone off Montaulk with a business at the end of the block that brings truck noice. Only suitable to rent to bikers. No summer person would rent it.

    Juice Box says:
    November 17, 2011 at 9:06 am
    re: Hampton bays.

    JJ your dream home awaits!

    http://www.redfin.com/NY/Hampton-Bays/Undisclosed-address-11946/home/21300344

  27. grim says:

    Glen Rock high taxes? Compared to what?

  28. Juice Box says:

    GR spends 27 million a year to educate 1800 students about 15k a student. If you have 3 or 4 in the system then I guess the taxes are cheap. Average SAT is near 1800.

  29. freedy says:

    Question of the day. When does Corzine get arrested? FBI/chic/nyc/prosecutors all
    investigating . Or does the local PD just pick him up like a common thief ?

  30. Juice Box says:

    JJ – $99k to be your neighbor? Sounds like a steal, can I borrow your lawn mower?

    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/165-N-26th-St-Wyandanch-NY-11798/32613081_zpid/

  31. Juice Box says:

    What is killer about the 99k house is the taxes are almost 10k!!!!

  32. JJ says:

    Wydanch is a straight up getto, even have a four corners section with crack dealers and hos. RE taxes are actually high in those neighborhoods as their is zero stores or offices as crime is too high. Plus police costs are higher and they still have to pay for schools. Metal detectors and armed guards in the HS are expensive.

  33. grim says:

    34 – 60% off the 2005 sale price? Ouch

  34. Juice Box says:

    JJ – So if I move to Wydanch I will be part of the 1%?

  35. JJ says:

    My buddy lives in Wyndanch, he never had a problem. But then again he is an extremely large black man whose Dad controls things. I can hook you up. His tricked out 84 Caddie Fleetwood is so retro pimp and says I can F you up.

  36. Jon Corzine says:

    Shouldn’t be long before martial law is the norm. I am enjoying Gerald Celente’s money. Thanks Gerald!

    Hey teachers! Hows that pension looking?

    Thanks folks. Time to trim my beard.

    Sincerely,

    Jon

  37. Juice Box says:

    One thing I have noticed is that there seems to be literally no real estate cheerleaders in the press anymore.

  38. 30 year realtor says:

    There is a shortage of desirable inventory in certain areas, price ranges and property types. Anything in completely renovated condition priced anywhere close to market value will draw multiple offers quickly. Vacant small multis in need of renovation are a hot commodity in urban markets and are in short supply. Investors are competing for homes in need of reno in suburban markets. The market has a real pulse.

  39. JJ says:

    “Workers’ fears appear well-founded: 29% of people in their 60s have saved less than $25,000 for retirement”

    From new Wells Fargo Study. Amazing. If you are 65 you had from 21-65 to save. Pretty much 1967 t0 2011 and assets such as houses and stocks were pretty cheap from 1967 to 2003 and long term bonds paid very high coupons from 1970s to around 2002. How is it possible to only have 25K. Frigging 30 year treasuries had like a 16% coupon in 1981 and Dow was under 3k for most of their investing time.

  40. Shore Guy says:

    “IMHO, isn’t that the more fiscally responsible approach? Towns with significantly lower bills are probably playing games, the music will stop.”

    What a quaint notion. In the end, the prudent towns will be hammered by the state in some way, shape, or form, in order to bail out the imprudent ones.

  41. Juice Box says:

    re: #44 – Shore a teacher I know who will be retiring soon plans on skipping town to PA ASAP. The State should change the pensions so that they must live in NJ to collect the pension.

  42. Anon E. Moose says:

    Grim [15];

    Jobless claims killing it, down to 388k

    Market says “Meh…”

    Maybe they’ve already priced in the inevitable upward revision.

  43. Anon E. Moose says:

    Juice [44];

    The State should change the pensions so that they must live in NJ to collect the pension.

    I doubt they could get away with that; or if they could, that they could adequately enforce it. Its too easy to set up a mailbox residence. What they could do is stop mailing checks or direct deposit. Imagine if you had to show up once a month to collect?

  44. Shore Guy says:

    A gift for Khamenei and Ahmadinejad? Maybe we figure they would preferr these to tactical Israeli nukes.

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-bunker-buster-bomb-20111117,0,3582708.story

  45. Painhrtz - I ain't dead yet says:

    JJ #42 because baby boomers are locusts haven’t you heard

  46. gary says:

    30 year [41],

    There is a shortage of desirable inventory in certain areas, price ranges and property types.

    What area and price range are we talking about? Care to expand?

  47. Anon E. Moose says:

    Pain [48];

    because baby boomers are locusts haven’t you heard

    I don’t have to hear. I see it with my own eyes. Its real easy to be mad at the banks or the Realtors or the mortgage brokers because they skimmed a few percent off lost of transactions and basically put it in one pile. 95% of every 2005 overpriced crapshack got passed on to some baby boomer living it up in Boca.

  48. Libtard in the City says:

    Grim,

    G Ridge does have high taxes. It’s approximately the same as Montclair’s. But GRidge has almost no debt. Every single resident in Montclair (not family) owes the town over $7,000 in capital debt. 20% of Montclair’s property taxes go to pay for the debt service on their capital debt and about two years ago, the last time I saw research on it, Montlair had 2nd most short-term notes as a percentage of their bonding than any other town in NJ putting them in a precarious position if interest rates increase. There is no comparing of the services in Montclair and Glen Ridge. Ridge’s small size makes it very convenient I suppose. No issues with the garbage, recycling, permitting and the schools are top notch. You call the municipal office and someone answers the phone and gets you an answer in minutes. Our broken limbs were picked up last week, for example. In Montclair, there are fears it will take until January to complete the clean up.

    Was actually discussing with Gator how quickly we have made so many friends in our new town as well. Although supposedly more snooty, we are not seeing it. Lil gator gets tons of playdate offers which are great since they’ll pick him up directly from school as most moms in G. Ridge stay at home. These other parents all sincerely love Lil Gator because he is both disciplined and empathetic. I think they all hope it will rub off on their kids whom most have been coddled into becoming whiney brats who can’t do anything for themselves. So far, we’re loving it. I’m coaching street hockey this year too for the rec league. It’s simply a very cool town. Not cheap, but definitely well run.

  49. Shore Guy says:

    Stu,

    GR might be debt free and well run but, does it have the cachet that comes from having a Mayor who travels to China to build bridges (of Chinese steel, perhaps) to China?

  50. chicagofinance says:

    The End Is Nigh (JJ Academic Edition):

    High school sex ‘machine’
    Teachers: Bizarre principal is a real classhole
    By JOE MOLLICA and YOAV GONEN

    A foul-mouthed Bronx principal is under investigation for allegedly rattling female staffers with off-color remarks about having sex with inanimate objects — like the school copier.

    At least two women at the brand- new Bronxdale HS have filed complaints with the Department of Education this year about novice principal John Chase Jr. and his alleged phallic fixation, according to sources.

    One of the staffers even filed a harassment report with the local police precinct claiming the inappropriate administrator proudly prattled about putting his Peter into school office orifices.

    “We have a fancy copy machine that does all sorts of things. It even has a hole to stick your d–k in for a blow j-b,” Chase allegedly said to the stunned staffer, according to a Sept. 19 police report obtained by The Post.

    Chase also allegedly celebrated a hole in the wall left behind by phone repairmen because he said it meant he could shove his member into it whenever he wanted, according to a source familiar with the complaints.

    A number of sexually explicit remarks were also directed toward or said about actual people, a source said.

    A spokeswoman for the Department of Education confirmed that its internal Office of Equal Employment was investigating one allegation of misconduct, although she declined to discuss the nature of the complaint.

    But several educators expressed shock that officials have allowed Chase to remain in place during the probe, given the unsettling nature of the claims against him.

    “The fact that he’s still in the building is absurd,” one angry staffer said. “He keeps talking about his d–k.”

    Chase’s DOE career started in 2006, when he was hired as a science teacher in Brooklyn, and he was later promoted to acting assistant principal at the Academy for Conservation and the Environment in Canarsie.

    He was appointed interim acting principal at Bronxdale HS in July.

    Chase could not be reached for a response. None of his former supervisors responded to e-mails seeking comment.

  51. chicagofinance says:

    Anyone with an opinion on selling a property in New Providence?

  52. chicagofinance says:

    Opinions? Where would this clear the market?
    http://www.charlespatrickrealtors.com/f1.htm

  53. JJ says:

    Sounds like a great town Sandusky should move there.

    Libtard in the City says:
    November 17, 2011 at 10:30 am
    Grim,

    G Ridge does have high taxes. It’s approximately the same as Montclair’s. But GRidge has almost no debt. Every single resident in Montclair (not family) owes the town over $7,000 in capital debt. 20% of Montclair’s property taxes go to pay for the debt service on their capital debt and about two years ago, the last time I saw research on it, Montlair had 2nd most short-term notes as a percentage of their bonding than any other town in NJ putting them in a precarious position if interest rates increase. There is no comparing of the services in Montclair and Glen Ridge. Ridge’s small size makes it very convenient I suppose. No issues with the garbage, recycling, permitting and the schools are top notch. You call the municipal office and someone answers the phone and gets you an answer in minutes. Our broken limbs were picked up last week, for example. In Montclair, there are fears it will take until January to complete the clean up.

    Was actually discussing with Gator how quickly we have made so many friends in our new town as well. Although supposedly more snooty, we are not seeing it. Lil gator gets tons of playdate offers which are great since they’ll pick him up directly from school as most moms in G. Ridge stay at home. These other parents all sincerely love Lil Gator because he is both disciplined and empathetic. I think they all hope it will rub off on their kids whom most have been coddled into becoming whiney brats who can’t do anything for themselves. So far, we’re loving it. I’m coaching street hockey this year too for the rec league. It’s simply a very cool town. Not cheap, but definitely well run.

  54. Shore Guy says:

    Chifi,

    Maybe the principal likes the machine because it has an enlarge function.

  55. 3B says:

    The link below highlights recent discussions on by bye suburbs, and suburbs becoming more urban, dramatic rise in poverty etc.

    http://riverdell.patch.com/articles/county-poverty-rate-rose-69-percent-over-20-years

  56. Shore Guy says:

    Hey, John. Come outside and wave to us:

    http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=1n&tag=watchnow

  57. Shore Guy says:

    Whatever happened to going to a bar to drown one’s sorrow at getting fired?

    http://www.suntimes.com/8897713-417/former-employee-opens-fire-at-fedex-building-kills-himself.html

  58. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [42] JJ

    That isn’t news, and there were rumblings about this as far back as the late 70’s.

    Upshot will be means testing of SS and other benefits, jiggering of tax laws to capture more 401(k) and IRA distributions, changes to estate tax laws to capture more estate, and, ultimately, mark-to-market wealth taxes.

    Asset protection and estate planning attorneys will grow rich. Paradoxically, many of them will be offshore as the Feds have been, and will continue to, change the rules to make it harder for people to use professionals for aggressive tax planning. By contrast, the attorneys at Walkers or Maples and Calder are not subject to IRS regulation, state bar discipline, or DoJ prosecution. And they will use special purpose banks and trust companies that have no ties to the U.S. so they aren’t subject to FATCA.

    FATCA does try to reach indirectly by cutting off the relationships that these banks might have with other foreign banks that do business in the US, but that is an administrative nightmare since detection is impossible, enforcement difficult, and the horse long gone by the time the barn door is closed.

    Latest focus for the IRS will be treaty-shopping, in order to prevent treaty countries and their banks from being used as conduits for end-clients in tax havens. But that will require revisions to our tax conventions. Good luck with that.

  59. Libtard in the City says:

    Chi,

    I know nothing about selling in New Providence, but it’s a pretty good town to live in I’ve been told.

    JJ,

    We don’t mess with little boys in Glen Ridge. Only retarded girls apparently.

  60. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [38] JJ

    Didn’t know you were friends with Marsellus Wallace.

    Got a picture from the last time you two were together

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Uo6kU05GvrI/TNIxo8c7tbI/AAAAAAAAANk/ZWN7Yvn4ano/s1600/pulp+fiction+marcellus.jpg

  61. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    While on the subject of JJ’s friends, I am oft compared to this character, and I sound like him sometimes:

    “The Wolf: Get it straight, Buster. I’m not here to say “please”. I’m here to tell you what to do. And if self-preservation is an instinct you possess, you better f***ing do it and do it quick. I’m here to help. If my help’s not appreciated, lots of luck, gentlemen.

    Jules: No no, Mr. Wolfe, it’s not like that. Your help is definitely appreciated.

    Vincent: Look, Mr. Wolfe, I respect you. I just don’t like people barking orders at me, that’s all.

    The Wolf: If I’m curt with you, it’s because time is a factor. I think fast, I talk fast, and I need you two guys to act fast if you want to get out of this. So pretty please, with sugar on top, clean the f***ing car.

  62. Shore Guy says:

    Nom,

    I am just waiting for the USG to decide to tax (again) Roth withdrawals. After all, if people could afford to pay the tax upfront, they should also be okay paying tax it on the back end as well. it is only fair.

  63. Anon E. Moose says:

    Chifi [54];

    Anyone with an opinion on selling a property in New Providence?

    Sell? To whom?

  64. Shore Guy says:

    Nom,

    That is better than being like a character from Reservoir Dogs and having Stuck in the Middle With You as your theme song.

  65. gary says:

    Moose [67],

    LOL! Beautiful!

  66. Smoke ’em if you got ’em. It’s all going to hell.

  67. grim says:

    Chi – Didn’t your uncle sell in Mountainside a few years back? I recall he got his number, and he got it quick.

    NP holds up, mainly due to the proximity to Summit/Millburn/Short Hills/Chathams. Desirability is clearly a tic below, but it soaks up it’s share over the priced-out-overflow. The NJ Monthly school rankings are a big driver for the NYC expats (NP came in at an incredible #5 in the 2010 list), and they play it for what it’s worth.

  68. gary says:

    I’m in New Providence right now. I see trees, a road and a squirrel. What else do you want to know?

  69. reinvestor101 says:

    I’ve had it up to here with these stinking liberals in OWS. What the hell do they want? Someone told me today that these punks are going to stop paying their damn student loans? WTF? That stinks. You don’t get a damn education and then try to weasel out of the damn debt while real estate investors like me pay their damn debts and struggle trying to sell their damn house.

    STOP PICKING ON THE BANKS YOU DIRTBAGS! We need them to save us. Hell, we just need to turn everything over to the damn banks and businesses and get the hell out of the way so they can solve the damn problems. It’s the stinking liberals who’ve created this problem with all the damn job killing regulations. OWS needs to be stopped and stopped hard. You didn’t see the T-party acting like this.

  70. JJ says:

    Americans make:

    Top 1%: $380,354

    Top 5%: $159,619

    Top 10%: $113,799

    Top 25%: $67,280

    Top 50%: >$33,048

    which means only the top 5% can afford a POS in a blue ribbon town in NJ

  71. gary says:

    JJ [74],

    That’s only if you don’t believe in Unicorns; otherwise everyone can afford a blue ribbon home.

  72. grim says:

    Looking at the pool of UC properties in NP, 17 total in the last 30 days (surprising), currently waiting to close. These 4 were pretty interesting:

    38 Grant – $399k ask – Offer in AR/UC in 9 days
    31 Gordon – $519k ask – Offer in AR/UC in 35 days
    480 Charnwood – $530k ask – Offer in AR/UC in 8 days
    155 Sagamore – $699k ask – Under contract in 9 days

    Looking at the sales, 4 closed in the last 30, pretty thin compared to the 17 contracts on deck, but this one stands out:

    30 Shelly – $419k ask – Under contract in 28 days

    There were no prior listings on these, weeded them out.

    Price it right….

  73. Anon E. Moose says:

    RE101 [73];

    You may just get your wish. NPR’s Diane Rehm had a 99IQer on:

    REHM: But help me to understand how occupying the public park, perhaps annoying the neighbors, perhaps getting in the way of traffic, is going to bring people to your side. Wouldn’t it be more helpful, for example, if you were to try to help people stop foreclosures?

    PREMO: Mm hmm. Yeah. That’s exactly the direction of the movement. The Occupy movement, both nationally and in New York City, is organizing for a national day of action, which will happen in early December around housing and foreclosures, where we will begin to organize coordinated eviction defenses as well as liberating foreclosed homes that have been taken through predatory and illegitimate lending practices.

    REHM: Excuse me. How will you liberate those foreclosed homes?

    PREMO: By putting families back in these homes. There are hundreds of thousands of homes throughout the country. There are, in fact, more homes than there are homeless people. And we will be putting families who have been evicted as well as people who are in need of homes back into these homes from which families have been evicted from and defending those — and defending the right of those people to have a home.

    http://thedianerehmshow.org/shows/2011-11-16/future-occupy-movement/transcript

    Personally, I think its just a head fake, BWTHDIK?

  74. Anon E. Moose says:

    These people can’t be for real. Such high octane a$$-hattery can only be a ruse:

    REHM – Now, what about the fact that Mayor Bloomberg has said you’ve got to come up with some ideas now?

    PREMO – I mean, I think Bloomberg’s comments are largely naive of the sheer number of ideas that we have that don’t fit into sort of his narrow paradigm of what is possible in our communities, in our neighborhoods and for the ways that we can continue to create new ways for interaction and create a level of accountability both within government and the economic system that holds true to all people, not just this sort of narrow margin of the so-called 1 percent. I think in a lot of ways, too…

    [At which point even the symathetic host had to cut off his rambling.]

  75. scooby_doo_doo says:

    short sale in upper haughtyville – where do you think it sells ultimately (soliciting opinions)?

    http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1132497&dayssince=&countysearch=false

  76. reinvestor101 says:

    >>PREMO: By putting families back in these homes. There are hundreds of thousands of homes throughout the country. There are, in fact, more homes than there are homeless people. And we will be putting families who have been evicted as well as people who are in need of homes back into these homes from which families have been evicted from and defending those — and defending the right of those people to have a home.<<<

    WTF?? This is making my damn blood boil. There's not a rock ribbed red blooded American that's going to stand for damn socialism. Not one. If OWS pulls a damn stunt like this, there's going to be hell to pay. I'd rather see these damn houses bulldozed (which would actually help valuations and me!) than to have some damn WORTHLESS OWS squatter sitting in someone's damn house. Who the hell do these damn people think they are? First they try to take over a mucking park and now you want to take over a mucking house?

    Those motherhubbards need to be stopped and stopped damn hard. They're communist and terrorist inspired.

  77. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (66) shore,

    I think Roths are safe but for gains. But I do expect new laws and regs that impute more income to a taxpayer in order to defeat estate planning techniques.

  78. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Just heard a Perry ad that used the S word to describe Chairman O’s policies.

  79. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Meat,

    Looks like Toon is getting a new sponsor.

  80. Painhrtz - I ain't dead yet says:

    Nom I hope Perry stays in for comic value alone

  81. A.West says:

    Regarding the “right” to a home, here’s a cogent argument from Ayn Rand about why an asserted “right” to someone else’s product is an asserted right to enslave:

    If some men are entitled by right to the products of the work of others, it means that those others are deprived of rights and condemned to slave labor.

    Any alleged “right” of one man, which necessitates the violation of the rights of another, is not and cannot be a right.

    No man can have a right to impose an unchosen obligation, an unrewarded duty or an involuntary servitude on another man. There can be no such thing as “the right to enslave.”

    A right does not include the material implementation of that right by other men; it includes only the freedom to earn that implementation by one’s own effort . . . .

    The right to property means that a man has the right to take the economic actions necessary to earn property, to use it and to dispose of it; it does not mean that others must provide him with property.

    The right of free speech means that a man has the right to express his ideas without danger of suppression, interference or punitive action by the government. It does not mean that others must provide him with a lecture hall, a radio station or a printing press through which to express his ideas.

    Any undertaking that involves more than one man, requires the voluntary consent of every participant. Every one of them has the right to make his own decision, but none has the right to force his decision on the others.

    There is no such thing as “a right to a job”—there is only the right of free trade, that is: a man’s right to take a job if another man chooses to hire him. There is no “right to a home,” only the right of free trade: the right to build a home or to buy it. There are no “rights to a ‘fair’ wage or a ‘fair’ price” if no one chooses to pay it, to hire a man or to buy his product. There are no “rights of consumers” to milk, shoes, movies or champagne if no producers choose to manufacture such items (there is only the right to manufacture them oneself). There are no “rights” of special groups, there are no “rights of farmers, of workers, of businessmen, of employees, of employers, of the old, of the young, of the unborn.” There are only the Rights of Man—rights possessed by every individual man and by all men as individuals.

    Property rights and the right of free trade are man’s only “economic rights” (they are, in fact, political rights)—and there can be no such thing as “an economic bill of rights.” But observe that the advocates of the latter have all but destroyed the former.

  82. A.West says:

    Rick Perry makes GWB sounds smart. The field so far looks like a bunch of evangelical preachers, along with a guy who can’t decide what he thinks, but “looks” like a president.

    I might prefer a wounded & weak O over that crew. Either way, nothing to cheer about.

  83. chicagofinance says:

    Everyone…thank you….I will reiterate my original question, specifically asking gary & grim….

    Opinions? Where would this clear the market?
    http://www.charlespatrickrealtors.com/f1.htm

    grim says:
    November 17, 2011 at 12:34 pm
    Looking at the pool of UC properties in NP, 17 total in the last 30 days (surprising), currently waiting to close. These 4 were pretty interesting:

    38 Grant – $399k ask – Offer in AR/UC in 9 days
    31 Gordon – $519k ask – Offer in AR/UC in 35 days
    480 Charnwood – $530k ask – Offer in AR/UC in 8 days
    155 Sagamore – $699k ask – Under contract in 9 days

    Looking at the sales, 4 closed in the last 30, pretty thin compared to the 17 contracts on deck, but this one stands out:

    30 Shelly – $419k ask – Under contract in 28 days

    There were no prior listings on these, weeded them out.

    Price it right….

  84. JCer says:

    I think Rick Perry has it in the bag, I’ve heard he is the Bilderberg conference choice. They seem to have a good record of getting their man into power, just look at Europe, a total sidestep of the voters. In Amerika I think it is easier to manipulate the voters. Either way it seems like Perry is the candidate as Obama is in bed with the Bilderberg group so either way they get their “Man” so to speak. Don’t underestimate the stupidity of the voter or the powers that be.

  85. chicagofinance says:

    Netflixed this a couple of weeks ago…..set in New Providence NJ and High School.
    Good, but not great….
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lixOX9bajIc

  86. grim says:

    87 – That link just brings me to the homepage, whats the mls?

  87. reinvestor101 says:

    >>>Property rights and the right of free trade are man’s only “economic rights” (they are, in fact, political rights)—and there can be no such thing as “an economic bill of rights.” But observe that the advocates of the latter have all but destroyed the former.<<<

    Hot damn. I just loves me some Ayn Rand and Uncle Milty Friedman is to just die for. Damn straight, there are no damn economic rights that these damn people are born with and if this crap keeps up, the next thing that will happen is that the damn banks will be slaves.

    That's bullspit and they'll violate the rights of the banks over my damn dead body. You can all me stupid all you want. I know where my damn interests are aligned.

  88. A.West says:

    Chifi,
    The list price on that house looks insane. It’s hard to imagine something owned by someone that out of touch with reality clearing in the foreseeable future.

  89. Shore Guy says:

    Egads! I might actually have to learn how to download music:

    http://www.dailyfinance.com/2011/11/15/music-lovers-prepare-to-say-goodbye-to-the-cd/

  90. Anon E. Moose says:

    Grim [90];

    2886708

    A.W. [92];

    +1 – I don’t care if it had 10 bedrooms and gilded fixtures.

    Just another a$$-hat seller/shill combo.

  91. Painhrtz - I ain't dead yet says:

    chiFi you couldn’t pay me 900K to live in union county. Nice house and all but no thanks

  92. Shore Guy says:

    What kind of football program are they running at Mizzou? How on earth can they allow civil authorities to arrest the head football coach for breaking the law? Just who do the cops think thay are?

    http://www.cnn.com/2011/11/17/sport/missouri-coach-arrested/?hpt=us_c2

  93. nj escapee says:

    Shore, hold on to you old cds tapes and records beacuse the new remastered releases have a cheesey flat sound to cater to the ipodedrs.

    Shore Guy says:
    November 17, 2011 at 2:00 pm
    Egads! I might actually have to learn how to download music:

    http://www.dailyfinance.com/2011/11/15/music-lovers-prepare-to-say-goodbye-to-the-cd/

  94. chicagofinance says:

    Anon E. Moose says:
    November 17, 2011 at 2:10 pm
    Grim [90];
    2886708
    A.W. [92];
    +1 – I don’t care if it had 10 bedrooms and gilded fixtures.
    Just another a$$-hat seller/shill combo.

    OK – knowing a bit about the backdrop, I am not going to vilify the seller……how much out of whack? $100K?; $200K? more?

  95. chicagofinance says:

    I am in the business to help people. I am a voice to help shape expectations…..

    A.West says:
    November 17, 2011 at 1:52 pm
    Chifi,
    The list price on that house looks insane. It’s hard to imagine something owned by someone that out of touch with reality clearing in the foreseeable future

  96. Captain Foresight HEHEHE says:

    Kettle,

    Give me a call when the real riots start.

    This Occupy thing is the same as the Tea Party cabal. Starts out fine then the powers that be co-opt it and insert their own loonies into there claiming to the voice. Look for more of this over the next decade. It’s also their way of putting law enforcement plants into the stream of things too.

    When the real riots start there won’t be any planning. Some mope who’s been unemployed for a long time or something will go bonkers and a bunch of people will join in and do the same. That’s when you’ll know its time to pack up camp.

  97. Captain Foresight HEHEHE says:

    You can’t spell New Providence without G-U-I-D-O.

  98. chicagofinance says:

    Is that the NJ version of HORSE?

    Captain Foresight HEHEHE says:
    November 17, 2011 at 2:54 pm
    You can’t spell New Providence without G-U-I-D-O.

  99. chicagofinance says:

    HEHEHE the guy who came to fix our dishwasher was named Guido…..”hey…this is Guido from NJ Appliance…”

  100. Juice Box says:

    Chi – did the overhead power lines fry the owners brain?

    Nothing is selling anywhere near that price in NP.

  101. Juice Box says:

    Tip of the iceberg?

    An actual Robo signing indictment in Las Vegas?

    http://www.housingwire.com/2011/11/16/nevada-grand-jury-indicts-2-on-robo-signing-charges

  102. Dink says:

    Chi,

    Looking at closed sales tells me that house is probably around $200K overpriced.

    I would recommend telling them to appeal their taxes. Seems to be assessed too high to me. If successful, would make for a more palatable asking.

  103. chicagofinance says:

    Anyone recommend a good local lawyer for a property tax appeal in New Providence?

  104. chicagofinance says:

    Thx DINK

  105. Bocephus says:

    109. I’m shocked I tell ya. Shocked!

  106. Confused in NJ says:

    155 Sagamore New Providence
    Year Property taxes % Change Tax assessment % Change
    More entriesFewer entries
    2011 $15,393 4.6% $377,100 —
    2010 $14,718 4.4% $377,100 —
    2009 $14,100 4.4% $377,100 —
    2008 $13,508 7.6% $377,100 —
    2007 $12,558 — $377,100 1.9%

  107. Al says:

    109.

    Freedy,

    Pfft. I stole billions from the NJ pension fund. Nothing like investing a few billion in 2007 then selling in March 2009. You suckaz were asleep at the wheel while I was whispering sweet nothings into your ears.

    You snooze you lose.

    Bwahahahaha!

  108. Al says:

    Darn it,

    I have been exposed. Sneaky, sneaky.

  109. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    At the SAGE fundraiser now. The wife bid on a week in Belize. Oy vey.

  110. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (107) chifi,

    Email me. I will get you names.

  111. cobbler says:

    chi [107]
    Based on the looks of the house in NP, it can sell around 680-700K (maybe a tad higher if walkable to the train station, or in MH neighborhood), and 16K in taxes is then un-appealable.

  112. Fabius Maximus says:

    #114 Nom

    Are they having an Early Bird special fundraiser?

  113. plume (83)-

    Fine by me. The asshat, Wilbur Ross, has finally landed Northern Crock, and I don’t want that guy’s bad juju anywhere near my side.

  114. plume (114)-

    Drink a Jim Jones for me when you get to Belize.

  115. Whoops. Belize ain’t Guyana.

  116. Libtard at home says:

    Oh, Belize!

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