CoreLogic – Northern NJ/NY Metro home prices up 2.6% YOY in October

From CoreLogic (no link):

Home Prices Down 3.9 Percent Year-Over-Year

Home prices in the U.S. decreased 1.3 percent on a month-over-month basis, the third consecutive monthly decline. According to the CoreLogic HPI, national home prices, including distressed sales, also declined by 3.9 percent on a year-over-year basis in October 2011 compared to October 2010. This follows a decline of 3.8 percent* in September 2011 compared to September 2010. Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 0.5 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010 and by 2.1* percent in September 2011 compared to September 2010. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

Highlights as of October 2011

* Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest appreciation were: West Virginia (+4.8 percent), South Dakota (+3.1 percent), New York (+3.0 percent), District of Columbia (+2.4 percent) and Alaska (+2.1 percent).
* Including distressed sales, the five states with the greatest depreciation were: Nevada (-12.1 percent), Illinois (-9.4 percent), Arizona (-8.1 percent), Minnesota (-7.9 percent) and Georgia (- 7.3 percent).
* Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest appreciation were: South Carolina (+4.6 percent), Maine (+3.1 percent), New York (+3.1 percent), Alaska (+2.9 percent) and Kansas (+2.8 percent).
* Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the greatest depreciation were: Nevada (-8.8 percent), Arizona (-7.0 percent), Minnesota (-5.7 percent), Delaware (-3.9 percent) and Georgia (- 3.6 percent).
* Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to October 2011) was -32.0 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -22.4 percent.

October 2011 12-Month HPI

MSA/% Change/% Change Excluding Distressed
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville IL -9.9% -1.3%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA -7.9% -3.9%
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ -6.7% -6.3%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA -5.8% 0.8%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA -5.7% -3.5%
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX -4.0% 0.4%
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX -0.2% 3.4%
Philadelphia PA 0.7% 1.6%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 1.3% 2.9%
New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ 2.6% 3.6%

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87 Responses to CoreLogic – Northern NJ/NY Metro home prices up 2.6% YOY in October

  1. Neanderthal Economist says:

    I found a finally found a 4/2 for a dollar but the property taxes are $30k…

  2. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  3. reinvestor101 says:

    Yes and mortgage applications are way the hell up!!! Happy days are here again!! I bet I’ll have my house sold for my damn asking price shortly. Hell, I’d love to get a little payback on these stinking buyers–I’d love to see them begging and bidding again just like the old days!

  4. funnelcloud says:

    reinvestor101 #3 If your serious about that comment, Good Luck, unless your house is in pristine condition, in a super prime location and comes with a home warranty,
    your dreaming.

    Morning Mike

  5. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Northern NJ/NY Metro home prices up 2.6% YOY

    Mix-shift. Meh.

  6. Shore Guy says:

    As long as we are pretending that we are back in time a few years and all is well with the RE market, lets go back a bit further (this will shake the cobwebs out of the brain):

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJTkiejiwUw&feature=related

  7. Groundballgolfer says:

    My Dentist just told me he purchased in Boca year 2005, he put 350K down and just had to bring 250K to the closing when he sold. I asked him why didn’t you walk away? He said the bank would come after him since he has assets. He said he purchased in 2005 because he wanted a place to retire and didn’t want the prices to run away from him. I am thinking I may not need the root canal/crown he wants to do? I didn’t ask him about the shore house he as.

  8. Mike says:

    Shore 6 Love the keyboards in that song, had this album (Every Picture Tells A Story) on 8 track! Good Morning Funnel

  9. gary says:

    Northern NJ/NY Metro home prices up 2.6% YOY in October.

    And property taxes are up 5.2%.

    Any questions?

  10. gary says:

    There are 31 homes in Ramsey with a “4” handle attached. In 2006, this one below and many others like it would’ve had a “6” handle. Any questions?

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3055921288-245-Canterbury-Dr-Ramsey-NJ-07446

  11. NJGator says:

    Hey Nom – That brilliant map of NJ actually has roots in Brigadoon!

    http://montclair.patch.com/articles/is-this-the-most-outrageous-new-jersey-map-ever-c302aa42

  12. Anon E. Moose says:

    Sr. Schizo [31, prev thread]

    BTW, moose, please disclose what you do for a living before diving in.

    You can’t cheat an honest man; never give a sucker an even break, or smarten up a chump.

    Words to live by, the later even more so.

  13. NJGator says:

    Gary (10) – There’s a short sale on the far south end of Glen Ridge on Midland Avenue with a “1” handle – $199k. Sure, it’s steps from East Orange, but there are several people who paid “3” and “4” handle prices on that very same block within the last few years. Ouch.

  14. gary says:

    Gator,

    Yes, very interesting!! I think the fun is just beginning and I had this vision in my head that some sellers would get to the point where they’re telling potential buyers that they’ll take the squirrels with them! lol! A far cry from 2005. Ultimately, it’s the property taxes that will be the fatal blow. They continue to rise unabated.

  15. gary says:

    This one has a certain seduction; even though I’m not looking at townhouses. Read the description. The price can be had in the 300s range:

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3068124264-156-Surrey-Ct-Ramsey-NJ-07446

  16. NJGator says:

    Friend in Slummit is thinking of moving. But unfortunately she bought in 2004 and put maybe 5% down. Place is a 3/1 with zero renovations. Friend says neighbor and local real estate agent told her she’d likely have to sell at a loss. She says she’s not sure if she should believe it because updated capes have sold for what she paid and Zillow says the house is worth 100k more. Sigh.

  17. gary says:

    Allendale, buttoned up nicely, granite kitchen and bathroom, nice property. It’s on Crescent Ave. which is a double yellow but it has a “4” handle and nothing needs to be done. Hey folks, tick… tick.. tick…

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3055688331-211-W-Crescent-Ave-Allendale-NJ-07401

  18. gary says:

    Gator,

    Tell your friend to hold tight for their price… they don’t want to give it away! :o

  19. make money says:

    OT. Have a nephew who’s a recent grad and watched porn sitting in his cubicle yesterday afternoon. someone saw him and reported it to his boss so they suspended him until they see whats inside his computer.

    He says he deleted all the cookies and history of website visited from his temporary files on his desktop. That can’t be enough. is it?

  20. make money says:

    Grim,

    Please unmod comment #20

  21. gary says:

    Completely renovated, 120 days on the market, originally asking 601K, now asking 549K. It’ll sell with a “4” handle.

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3060318054-38-Cherokee-Ave-Allendale-NJ-07401

  22. Jill says:

    Gary #10: But yeesh, look at that kitchen. It’s just waiting for one of those time capsule house people to grab it.

  23. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [11] Gator,

    Explains why he described the Brig as middle class but Summit as upper class. If you get into the data, I expect there isn’t much difference, but folks in the Brig don’t consider themselves to be 1%ers while Hilltoppers do.

    It’s one of the things I like about the Brig. Not that there isn’t attitude, but there is a LOT less of it here than in Summit.

  24. grim says:

    14 – You must be mistaken, the South End of Glen Ridge borders North Orange, more specifically the “Upper Orange” neighborhood of North Orange.

    I wish you wouldn’t keep calling it East Orange, you might give folks here the wrong impression about the area.

  25. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    A few days ago, I posted a story about booming gun sales on Black Friday.

    One thing I hadn’t considered was prices. I just got my Cabela’s circular, and the prices for handguns and black guns have really come down. I had not considered adding to my arsenal, but now I just might.

    Too bad I can’t write it off as a business expense. So maybe I will settle for the espresso maker.

  26. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [20] make

    From what I understand from computer experts, he is likely screwed.

    But then, for viewing pron at work, he ought to be.

  27. Jill says:

    For being STUPID enough to view p**n at work, he ought to be. Perhaps he should seek help to discover why he can’t wait till he gets home. Sorry, zero sympathy for him.

  28. Anon E. Moose says:

    Make [20];

    If they want to fire him, they already have all they need. There will be a record of internet traffic webpage requests (including the ‘what’ and the ‘deliver to:’) in the company’s servers. Doesn’t mean it will happen — I know of several “boys’ club” offices, not to mention those like the SEC, but like I said, provided they are smart enough know where to find it, they already have everything they need even without touching his computer.

  29. Shore Guy says:

    “That can’t be enough. is it?”

    I second Nom’s conclusion that he is likely scr-ewed. My work has involved situations where we had to find files that were deleted in an attempt to hide things. Even without a sophisticated forensic computer analysis, there are pretty easy ways to recover logs and files that one has deleted. Remember “delete” just removes pointers to a location, the underlying data is still there, until overwritten. And, even then, unless the data is overwritten to Milspec, it is not going to take any competent computer forensics specialist to find deleted files.

    Beyond that, the IT dept will have logs of every IP address visited by every computer on the network. He may want to negotiate before they confront him.

  30. Shore Guy says:

    What Moose said is consistent with what I have experienced. Every step one takes, every file accessed, and protocol used is recorded and accessible to the IT folks. I have seen the logs when we were looking into a series of incidents involving someone who had things they should not have had and were trying hard to cover their tracks. The person in question had high-level responsibility for a large network and still could not cover their tracks when the security apparatus came a-calling.

  31. POS cape says:

    [22] Gary

    From the write up: “From the inside out walls and wood flooring to siding and roof this home has been made new.”

    Looks like they skipped the driveway.

  32. Libtard in Union says:

    What the heck is a magazine quality home?

  33. Anon E. Moose says:

    “Excluding distressed sales”

    What a joke. “Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?”

  34. Anon E. Moose says:

    Realtor-ese translation: “distress sale” == Any comp I’d rather ignore

    I know of one particular neighborhood where a 4/2.5 just traded arms-length for within $3k of a ‘bank-approved’ short sale price on a similar property two blocks away.

    These days whether its a ‘distress sale’ has solely to do with the state of the mortgage, and nothing to do with market value. To paraphrase Tanta, “We’re all [distress sales] now.”

  35. NJGator says:

    Grim 25 – You’re right. These people should consider them selves privileged to own a 1300SF palace updated within the last 50 years on a 40×100 estate just steps from beautiful Upper North Orange for only $400k. And for those who aren’t down with the program, I am sure there’s an invisible fence at the border, right?

  36. Nicholas says:

    It depends on what kind of company he works for whether they will have the competent IT staff to chase this sort of thing down. The first thing going for them is that the IT staff probably considers this not only a waste of their time but of their resources. Who wants to spend all day finding out what kind of pron you were looking at in the last 24 hours when they could be spending time maintaining, building and protecting the networks that they do have.

    The first thing I would suggest is that you read through the companies computer usage policy. If it specifically states that it cannot be used for such purposes then you have an uphill struggle. I’m guessing that he works in the US and thus the company is on the hook for EEO compliance. Se*xual harrassment in the workplace is often a big deal.

    On the other side of the coin there are reasons why pron sites would be visited without him being able to control it such as a computer virus, malware, spyware, or redirecting websites (think pop ups). Visiting **NSFW** whitehouse(dot)com **NSFW** for instance could be seen as a social engineering trick that would cause someone to visit a pron site.

    If it was a light infraction or the first time then you can probably do okay with “I’m sorry, I will make sure it doesn’t happen again. I didn’t realize the computer usage policy applied even when I was on break. I understand that many computer viruses are spread from pron sites and I will make sure not to use the computer for anything other than work related items” If the kid is young then he learned a very valuable lesson about se*xual deviancy in the workplace. If he is older than say 30 then he likely needs to be let go as by that age they should know better.

    I consider “not looking at pron” a valuable workplace skill that should have been taught by parents or teachers well before they make it into their jobs. This makes you second guess all the other workplace skills you assume the new employee should have such as not peeing on the toilet seat, turning off the coffee pot if you are the last one out of the office, or not stealing other people’s lunches from the office refridgerator.

  37. Nicholas says:

    Let me add to the list of valuable skills…

    …Not burning popcorn in the office microwave.

  38. Juice Box says:

    Grim release #39 plz

  39. chicagofinance says:

    Q: shouldn’t the network automatically block pron; the fact that it does not suggests the sophistication of the IT at that work site……

  40. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Blago gets 14 years.

  41. Shore Guy says:

    Something tells me that Sandusky is not getting a low unsecured bail for this new arrest:

    Sandusky arrested on new sex abuse charges

    http://old.news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111207/ap_on_sp_ot/us_penn_state_abuse

  42. Happy Renter says:

    [35] I have been informed that “distressed” properties is a sign of a town’s affluence and proximity to Manhattan, akin to “distressed” jeans those of means may find at fine clothiers everywhere, or the “distressed” furniture on offer at Crap & Barrel.

  43. JCer says:

    Chi, it dependents many companies have stopped trying to block based on content as that is difficult and expensive and try to blacklist known sites or keywords, depending on what he was visiting it might not have been popular enough to end up a black list. Small companies generally don’t have sophisticated IT and usually have a blacklist that was last updated when Clinton was president and would have to manually capture records from the routers based on the NIC address or ip(if static) of the offender and would likely be working with a situation where eventually the logs roll over and are pretty much lost. Any sizable company even if they are IT incompetent will be able to trace the browsing activity back to the workstation, in a small firm it depends on how much money they want to waste as they usually do not have full time IT and are usually not equipped for browsing surveillance.

  44. The Original NJ Expat says:

    At our company we have two general access networks. Our corporate network which is heavily locked down with Blue Coat and a separate and more or less open wireless network that employees can use personal devices to access. Users of the open wireless network have to register their devices (by MAC id) to gain access. We do some filtering on the open network, but no real tracking. Essentially our policy is use your work machines for work and use the open network with your personal devices for personal stuff you can’t get to on the corporate network, but act like an adult. If you want to do something quick on FB or eBay, fine, but utilize good judgment and don’t be watching the pron.

  45. Anon E. Moose says:

    Happy [43];

    You’re thinking of “disdressed”, not distressed. Hope that helps. ;-)

  46. chicagofinance says:

    KEY PHRASE IS……roughly triple

    Sent to my distribution list.

    Subject: Q: Do you stand where you sit?

    Please note that I am an analyst, and as a sound business practice, I am agnostic on most politicized issues.

    You may have no knowledge or opinion of hydraulic fracturing (i.e. fracking), but regardless, please consider this fact that affects you today, especially if you heat your home with natural gas. The next time you receive your NJNG bill, you can consider it. Note, fracking has effectively been banned in NJ, but it is a hollow regulation as we have few, if any, such resources here.

    WSJ
    HEARD ON THE STREET
    DECEMBER 7, 2011

    Overheard

    For drivers feeling pain at the pump, help is at hand from another type of gas: the invisible kind.

    In a report published Tuesday, IHS Global Insight tries to quantify the benefits accruing from America’s shale-gas resource. It claims that in their absence, natural-gas prices could be about $12 per million British thermal units, roughly triple what they are today. IHS calculates the annual savings from this at $926 per household between 2012 and 2015.

    At an estimated 122 million households, that equates to $113 billion a year in consumers’ pockets. With Americans currently burning about 135 million gallons of gasoline a year, the savings on natural gas are equivalent to knocking 84 cents off the cost of each one. That is like cutting the average gasoline price over the past 12 months from $3.55 a gallon to $2.71.

    A saving compared to what you might have paid is never quite as satisfying as an outright price drop. But until that day comes, in this economy every little bit helps.
    —overheard@wsj.com

  47. Nicholas says:

    On our corporate networks there is an access list for unapproved sites such as yahoomail, hotmail, etc to keep people from using non-corporate email resources. They seem to keep that managed pretty well so I’m not certain that companies still don’t have working blacklists.

    There are private companies that build “no-go” list for pron sites to protect children if you wanted a parental filter at home. I think it would be easy and cheap enough to annually license that list if you were interested.

    Google has by default explicit content filters which you can turn on and off. If you tried Googling for the word “facial” you are served responses for local nail/hair/spa salons in the area. Try turning off the moderator and you will definitely see why they say that 40% off all internet traffic is pron. Google does this for images as well, which I’m not entirely sure how. Perhaps some combination of associated text searching, picture metadata, and old-fashioned eyeballs.

  48. JCer says:

    Nicholas, yes it is easy and big companies generally pay the costs to buy the blacklists as well as ones they maintain themselves. Smaller companies do not usually pay continual licensing fees, nor care to spend IT resources on policing it.

  49. Bocephus says:

    14 years is a lot of time in the pokey.

  50. Fabius Maximus says:

    #47 Chi
    Did you add a chart of historical gas prices to put some perspective. Triple I would think to be a bit far fetched. Although even that would be lower than the $15 peak we saw in 2005. The gas price is low today mostly due to oversupply in the US.

  51. The Original NJ Expat says:

    14 years is a lot of time in the pokey.
    Maybe a lot of pokey in the pokey, too.

  52. chicagofinance says:

    Do you know why there is oversupply?

    Fabius Maximus says:
    December 7, 2011 at 3:48 pm
    #47 Chi The gas price is low today mostly due to oversupply in the US.

  53. freedy says:

    http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/12/07/10-questions-for-jon-corzine/?smid=tw-nytimesdealbook&seid=auto

    Questions for Jon. Will he answer or take the fifth? Whats the opening line?

  54. Juice Box says:

    freedy – any chance Corzine has a mea cupla? He was a Marine once in his life.

  55. JCer says:

    14 years, not bloody likely. Watch him try to delay sentencing and get a pardon after the 2012 elections.

  56. Juice Box says:

    JCer – pardon? Not likely, too soon that might come at the end of the administration like a few other Preidents did in the last hours on the job. Tomorrow we get a little dog and pony show, Corzine makes opening statement and then takes the 5th on all questions. A year or so later after an exhaustive Grand Jury investigation (perhaps the longest ever so feel sorry for those folks ) he will be indited and then he will turn himself in, make bail a few minutes later and then a few years from now quietly accept a plea bargain and do a few rounds of community service teaching young folks at a community college about government.

  57. 30 year realtor says:

    #35 Moose – Throwing stones again for a change?

    Distress sales aren’t about a seller with special motivation to accept market value in 30 days or less. Distress sales are about the product. The valid reason to avoid such sales as comps would be based upon substantially inferior condition, inherent defects and floorplan issues. Properties which require rehab loans, cash purchases and acceptance of defects that cannot be remidied are not valid comps for typical homes.

  58. joyce says:

    58
    i agree to a point
    but if/when the majority of the sales are short sales or foreclosures… does that “set the market” to an extent?

  59. Anon E. Moose says:

    30-yr [58];

    Looking to sell in 30 days, or holds out for 409 days, what’s the difference? Both equally distressed, right? I’m sure it doesn’t say a thing about market value.

    Just ignore that neighborhood comp (particularly easy when your industry has a stranglehold on the dissemination of sales data).

    Joyce [69];

    DING!

  60. Anon E. Moose says:

    Oh, and 30-yr, if I was looking to throw stones, I’d spend the time and effort to confirm that the listing agent who just spiked a higher offer was dual-representing the lower offeror. Gee, 5% of x or 2.5% of 2x>y>x … I wonder how that math will work out?

  61. Anon E. Moose says:

    … 2.5% of y, 2x>y>x…

  62. Anon E. Moose says:

    Con’t [61];

    And right before the listing expired, too! Well, Golly Gee!

  63. chicagofinance says:

    I’m here tomorrow, anybody have questions for me to lob at anyone?
    http://www.indexuniverse.com/insidecommodities/agenda.html

  64. chicagofinance says:

    YES!
    #1 Worst Holiday Breakfast
    IHOP Eggnog Pancakes (4 pancakes)
    2,150 calories
    84 g fat (47 g saturated)
    123 g sugar

    How do you cram more than a days’ calories and two days’ saturated fat into four pancakes? Slather them with layers of eggnog goop and drizzle them with butter rum sauce, that’s how. These holiday hotcakes are a nutritional nightmare and a perfect example of how “holiday” often translates to “horribly unhealthy.” But if pancakes put you in the holiday spirit, by all means order them. Just avoid the gimmicky ones and opt for good old-fashioned buttermilk.

  65. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    It looks like I should be well-rounded by my influences based on my Northern New Jersey Migration pattern:

    http://img710.imageshack.us/img710/3069/nnjlivedhere.jpg

  66. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [64] chifi – I’m here tomorrow, anybody have questions for me to lob at anyone?

    Margin requirements du jour? Reminds me of an ancient Miller Lite commercial where Bob Uecker and some NFL guys are having lunch, pouring over the menu:

    Q. “What is Soup du Jour?”
    A. “I don’t know, but they have it every day.”

  67. Mikeinwaiting says:

    ExPat been in the vast wilderness of rednecks & retired hippies since 98, do not want to go down below (as it is called up here) unless absolutely necessary. Anything past Sparta on 15 or around the Oak ridge border on 23 is considered below. We do however make trips into “Pennsyltucky” as most there have even less teeth than the folks here we are considered from the city.

  68. BearsFan says:

    [64] chifi – yes, please ask Schiff /Faber or anyone who wants a stab at it, why someone with some means has not yet purchased and held for delivery enough silver contracts on the comex to crack it please. thanx

  69. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Nom what were those GTG dates again? May bring myself to go “down below’ for the event, although over an hour & a half drive is punishing on the way home.

  70. BearsFan says:

    chifi – im still actively pursuing a purchase in your neck of the woods, been in a bunch the last 8 months, 2 offers, missed ultimately by 5% of eventual PurPrice. I lurk daily here…if you ever hear/spot something…(hat tip)

  71. Mikeinwaiting says:

    November Housing: A Split Decision http://seekingalpha.com/article/312277-november-housing-a-split-decision
    A pretty balanced piece as the name implies, give it a read some good charts & interesting data.

  72. Juice Box says:

    Chi – Why are CBs hedging UST with gold instead of silver? It’s a trick question.

  73. reinvestor101 says:

    Did you see these damn Ruskies cheating in a damn election? Goes to show you that they’re commies to the damn core. Unlike us, they don’t have a supreme court that can straighten this shlt out and they have to hold another damn election and waste a bunch of damn time and money, not to mention pissing people off all over again.

    If they knew what the hell they were doing, they’d have the damn court get this straight. I never liked or trusted that damn wuss Pukin anyway.

  74. reinvestor101 says:

    >>theoharlecool says:
    December 7, 2011 at 8:26 pm

    We’re #1 online How many dealers [url=http://edtreatments.info/viarga/mail-order-viarga.html]who mail order viarga[/url] medical supply companies richmond va!<<

    Let's get something damn straight. This is damn real estate blog and some of us don't need this kind of damn "help". I'm a rock ribbed red blooded meat eating VERY virile American male, so I don't have any damn "problems". So, unless you got something that's gonna get someone hot and bothered to buy my damn house, get the hell out of here.

  75. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [68] MikeinWaiting – ExPat been in the vast wilderness of rednecks & retired hippies since 98, do not want to go down below (as it is called up here) unless absolutely necessary. Anything past Sparta on 15 or around the Oak ridge border on 23 is considered below. We do however make trips into “Pennsyltucky” as most there have even less teeth than the folks here we are considered from the city.

    Pennsyltucky = Brick? I’ll one up you. My college girlfriend was from Newark, they had a summer “place” in Waretown. Amazing how warm the water was while fishing in rowboats near the nuclear plant.

  76. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [68] MikeinWaiting – I actually predate you in your chosen homeland. I was a Spa member starting in ’87 when my girlfriend had a new condo up there and when they used to boast about it being a “SIX MILLION DOLLAR FACILITY”, way back when $6 million bought you more than a dozen nice Bergen county houses, on the way up, not on the way down, like now. We still ski up at Vernon Valley/GG (can’t get used to calling it Mountain Creek) a week or two each year because it’s free with the timeshare we bought almost 20 years ago. The only downside is the ridicule we suffer in Boston when we tell our friends we’re going to NJ to ski.

  77. Fabius Maximus says:

    #53 Chi

    The short answer is that there is oversupply because you can’t export it, but I expect that is not the answer you are looking for. I understand that Fracking sources acount for 30% of todays supply, the big expense is getting to it, once it comes onlie you can start backing off other sources such as generation from coal. On top of that there are over 3000 wells drilled in the last decade that have not been connected to the grid. You could stop all new drilling today and there would not be an impact for years. But today there is the politcal climate of fear and the desire for energy independance. There is a soft political climate to override the ecological arguements. Its the new version od the 1800s land rush. Grab as many fracking sites as you can and get drilling, because the bubble will burst and the gvmt will step in at some point (I hope)with drilling moritoriams.

    Here is a nice piece from the Uber progressives at Scientific American. Be sure to check out the comments.
    http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=safety-first-fracking-second

  78. cobbler says:

    [nat gas]
    As opposed to the oil price which is largely controlled by the OPEC as long as the can keep their act together, gas price is more free market, especially within the piped-up geographic regions (e.g. North America). As LNG ports are natural bottlenecks, and LNG tankers are expensive and burn down a meaningful part of their load on the way, price differs between the U.S. v. Europe v. Far East. Back in 2005 we had very expensive gas (x2 of petroleum per BTU) since the import LNG ports were not yet developed, and demand had been outpacing internal supply (multiple reasons including almost exclusively gas heated new homes, and enviro standards making burning cheap coal expensive, at least in the new power stations). This resulted among other things in a significant drop in the domestic basic chemicals (methanol, ammonia, etc.) production increasing their imports and worsening our trade balance, as well as people choosing to have oil heat – which now comes to bite them. Right now and for a while longer we’ll have reasonably cheap gas; I hope some steps are taken to restrict its exports – cost advantage will help the productive industry, also I chose the average homeowner (that saves by having cheap fuel in winter) over the shareholders that gain if thanks to exports the prices rise. Regarding the fracking, if we are into damaging the environment, gas wells are definitely more controllable than blowing off the mountaintops looking for coal.

  79. Fabius Maximus says:

    #64 Chi

    Here’s a question.

    When will we see the the big push to bring online LNG refineries to take up the excess Natural gas oversupply and start exporting it to the likes of Japan who will need it to replace the generating capacity lost from FU.

  80. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Expat Pennsyltucky = Brick?
    Pennsyltucky: Some tidbits from the urban dictionary.

    Rural parts of Pennsylvania with large concentrations of country folk, noted for interest in Hunting, Country Music, NASCAR, trailer life, Wal-Mart and working at the plant. Often spotted wearing camouflage with full grown beards or unkept caveman appearance driving pickup trucks with gun racks. Note: PA has the largest Rural population of any state, not everyone who lives or is from these regions is a red neck, hick or country bumpkin and most who don’t dislike the reference “Pennsyltuckey” and find it insulting.
    The large section of the middle of Pennsylvania where more cars are seen on lawns than the roads. Cousin sex is acceptable, and New Jersey license plates are generally despised.

    PS let me know when you are in the hood ,meet for a drink.

  81. grim says:

    Bye bye Prudential Real Estate, another one bites the dust.

  82. cobbler says:

    fabius [80]
    One LNG export plant is being readied in the Houston area already, another one is in the works. I hope someone sabotages them, we need this gas here.

  83. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    #8 MiW – Oh, you’re talking about the “real” Pesnnsyltucky. No worries, I have a little of that in me as well. My Mom was from Northumberland county and I spent many a summer in Shamokin, back when K-mart and Jupiter stores filled the needs that current Walmarts do now. I’ll definitely let you know when I’m “in the hood”. Back in the day Tom Cruise’s sister used to pour me tall scotches at Kites. I still have a little bit of pull there;-)

  84. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    #81 I mean.

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