Agents and Sellers “adjusted to the new pricing realities”?

From the Record:

Bergen, Passaic home prices continue to slide

North Jersey home values dropped 3 percent in the first half of this year, bringing Bergen County’s median single-family home price below $400,000 for the first time since the housing meltdown began five years ago, an analysis by The Record has found.

The analysis also found that prices did not move in lock step across Bergen and Passaic counties; values fell furthest in lower-priced communities hard-hit by rising foreclosures and the troubled economy. More affluent housing markets held their value better. Some even rose.

Rick Del Guercio, a Glen Rock appraiser, said his experience bears out The Record’s findings.
Hard hit at the bottom

Prices generally dropped most at the low end of the North Jersey housing market, but held their own at the high end.

The analysis for this article and accompanying graphics used tra­ditional “arms-length” sales that reflect market values as well as sales of properties at various stages of a foreclosure or estate liq­uidation process. Sales of distressed properties were included be­cause they represent a significant part of the housing market and reflect the true value of homes in many communities, according to real estate experts.

“You see a greater drop in some of these lower-end towns than in some of the higher-end towns,” he said. “The lower end is being flooded by foreclosures, which is obviously dropping the price for everyone.”

“Locations where the distressed property percentage is high are having huge problems, while other areas are stabilizing,” said Barbara Weismann, a real estate agent with Weichert Realtors in Tenafly.

The Record’s analysis also found that the number of home sales in the two counties plummeted 25 percent from the first half of 2010 to the first half of 2011, though that probably reflected the fact that sales were artificially inflated in early 2010 by the $8,000 federal tax credit for buyers.

The number of homes sold decreased from about 3,600 to 2,800 in Bergen and from 1,450 to 1,000 in Passaic. The latest numbers are down by about two-thirds from the highest levels seen during the housing boom.

As painful as it is to see housing wealth disappear, “most sellers at this point have adjusted to the new pricing realities,” said Beth Freed of Prominent Properties Sotheby’s International Realty in Ridgewood.

But rather than accept lower prices for their homes, many are simply delaying plans to sell, if they can.

“I think most of the people who are selling right now are doing so because they have to, either because of job loss or divorce,” said Jaime Bolnick, a Re/Max agent in Franklin Lakes.

“Buyers are seeing incredible savings in comparison to just a couple of years ago,” said John Reilly of Century 21 Van Der Wende Associates in Little Falls, who says prices have returned to 2003 levels in many towns.

“A lot of buyers are hesitant to commit even if it’s priced fair or below market,” said David Hsu, an agent with Abbott and Caserta Realtors in Ho-Ho-Kus.

That smaller pool of buyers translates into lower demand, which in turn, means lower prices.

Carmelo “Mel” Oliveri of Property Hub Realtors in Paramus predicts that prices will continue to drop because of the large number of foreclosures and short sales expected to come on the market over the next couple of years.

Sheldon Neal, a Re/Max agent in Oradell, agreed.

“The ones who benefit will be first-time buyers,” Neal said.

But, Hsu warned, they should resist the temptation to treat a home as “an investment vehicle.”

“Those days are over for a while,” he said.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate, Price Reduced. Bookmark the permalink.

105 Responses to Agents and Sellers “adjusted to the new pricing realities”?

  1. grim says:

    Dictator death pool list looking pretty thin now, Kim Jong Il dead.

    Feel like an idiot for picking Fidel years back, the guy just won’t give in.

  2. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  3. Mike says:

    In Case You Missed The 60 Minutes Episode Last Night On Foreclosed And Abandoned Homes http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7392090n&tag=contentBody;storyMediaBox

  4. Confused in NJ says:

    Castro was freeze dried years ago.

  5. grim says:

    From Yesterday:

    There Went Meat says:
    December 18, 2011 at 2:05 am

    This place has officially become a bit boring. And boring in the same way geriatric homes are boring.

    No blame for this goes to Grim. In the past two weeks, he has posted 2-3 of the best pieces ever placed on this blog (which is good, since it’s his blog).

    I accept whatever proportional share of the blame that needs to be distributed upon myself. I’m pretty much out of the business, work way too many hours in another business and really have no interest in RE beyond the average gawker’s fascination at a slow-motion car crash. I’ve also been a poor contributor, since I achieved my newly-found status of “permanently broke”. If I cared at all about the business, I’d up my game. However, I can’t even pretend to care.

    Abandon hope, all ye who enter here. And smoke ‘em while you got ‘em.

  6. grim says:

    From 2008:

    grim says:
    November 7, 2008 at 10:57 am

    Bottom in RE will be in when nobody cares about it anymore. I’m not talking about Joe Sixpack alone, I’m talking about here.

    When nobody comes here anymore, the bottom is in.

  7. grim says:

    Along the same lines as the headline post:

    From the Real Deal blog:

    Waiting for Westchester’s rebound

    Westchester may be the suburb that’s home to some of the area’s biggest local celebrities — from Bill and Hillary Clinton to Martha Stewart — but that hasn’t prevented market forces from taking hold of the real estate market there.

    Just north of the city, the county has been struggling for the last few years and, like the market in the city, hasn’t fully rebounded yet.

    In this month’s Q&A, The Real Deal talked to brokers and market analysts about everything from Westchester’s super-luxury market to the rental market to the foreclosure situation.

    Our sources said that after several years of stagnation, there was finally an uptick in sales volume in the third quarter. But that improvement didn’t translate into prices, which are still down by as much as 10 percent from a year ago and by 30 to 40 percent from the boom.

    The market is, however, bifurcated when it comes to prices, with the high end and the low end holding relatively well and the mid-market struggling. For example, the $1 million-plus market accounted for 28 percent of all sales — which is almost as big a slice as it accounted for pre-recession. And, one source said the $5 million-and-up range has seen a flurry of activity in the last six to eight weeks.

    Meanwhile, the towns closer to the city, such as Scarsdale and Rye, are generally doing better than towns farther north, like Pound Ridge and Lewisboro. There are still plenty of market obstacles, like perpetually low appraisals, a steady foreclosure inventory, and stubborn sellers who are unwilling to accept prices far lower than their properties would have fetched during the boom.

  8. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    It’d be less boring if we hadn’t banned Jamil.

  9. Neanderthal Economist says:

    You think its quiet around here, try hosting an open house.

  10. grim (6)-

    So, the bottom is in.

    Now, we will “skip along” it for the next 50 years or so.

  11. grim says:

    Didn’t ban him I swear.

  12. After watching a piece just now on Today (seemingly written and presented with the average 67-IQ viewer in mind) on Gingrich and Cult Guy, I think the best way to settle the Repug nomination would be a pistol duel at three feet.

    No matter how bad things are- or how things get- I just can’t see a scenario where either of these goobers even puts a dent in Bojangles’ war machine. When he starts deploying the big $$$, it’s all over.

  13. plume (8)-

    Jamil got banned? I thought he didn’t have time to post, after taking a job as Bill O’Reilly’s fluffer.

  14. Rule Brittania?

    “While certainly humorous, entertaining and very, very childish, the recent war of words between France and Britain has the potential to become the worst thing to ever happen to Europe. Actually, make that the world and modern civilization. Why? Because while we sympathize with England, and are stunned by the immature petulant response from France and its head banker Christian Noyer to the threat of an imminent S&P downgrade of its overblown AAA rating, the truth is that France is actually 100% correct in telling the world to shift its attention from France and to Britain. So why is this bad? Because as the chart below shows, if there is anything the global financial system needs, is for the rating agencies, bond vigilantes, and lastly, general public itself, to realize that the UK’s consolidated debt (non-financial, financial, government and household) to GDP is… just under 1000%. That’s right: the UK debt, when one adds to its more tenable sovereign debt tranche all the other debt carried on UK books (and thus making the transfer of private debt to the public balance sheet impossible), is nearly ten times greater than the country’s GDP. To call that “game over” is an insult to game overs everywhere. So here’s the bottom line: France should quietly and happily accept a downgrade, because the worst that could happen would be a few big French banks collapsing, and that’s it. If, on the other hand, the UK becomes the center of attention (recall this is the same UK that allows unlimited rehypothecation of worthless assets, and the same UK that unleashed the juggernaut known as AIG-FP’s Joe Cassano – after all there is a reason why the UK has 600% its GDP in financial liabilities – financial innovation always goes there where it is least regulated), then this island, which far more so than the US is the true center of the global banking ponzi scheme, will suddenly find itself at the mercy of the market. At that point the only question is whether the vigilantes will dare to take down the UK, as said take down will result in an implosion in the very fabric of modern finance, much more so than what even a full collapse of France could ever achieve, or if due to the certain Mutual Assured Destruction that would follow a coordinated UK onslaught, the market will simply very quietly proceed to ignore the elephant in the room.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/psssst-france-here-why-you-may-want-cool-it-britain-bashing-uks-950-debt-gdp

  15. livinginPA says:

    Serous question for the realtors out there. Trying to evaluate a home in Bucks that was bought last March for a song and “rehab-ed” by flippers. New roof, new dormers, new kitchen, new baths, new paint throughout. Put on market about a month ago for more than 2x what they paid for it – north of a million. About $318 per sq foot. The going rate for re-sale homes in the area is about $180-$225 per sq ft. Pretty sure new construction in the area isn’t getting that kind of premium. I think the price is way off, but not sure how to evaluate what the price should realistically be. Any thoughts?

  16. grim says:

    Rehabbed by a builder or rehabbed by a flipper? If it is the latter, I’d suggest staying away.

  17. Morpheus says:

    I also thought jamil was not banned. has anyone ever been banned from here?

  18. veets (9)-

    Agents still in the biz tell me that broker open houses offering food are pulling record attendance. Natch, the main draw is the food.

    It IS that bad out there. While acknowledging that even now, 80% of the agents in the biz should never be allowed to put pen to a contract, there is zero safety net/bennies/etc for any of these people. Why/how some of these people- lots of whom have had no closings for a couple of years- stick with it is beyond my comprehension.

  19. PA (15)-

    First thought is that I hope the rehabber winterized that joint.

  20. At that price, he should also get ahead of the curve and board up the windows.

  21. grim says:

    17 – Mickey D from Cliffside Park

  22. Shore Guy says:

    “Castro was freeze dried years ago”

    Is he just a nose?

  23. Shore Guy says:

    Years ago, I remember that RE was a topic that came up when somebody had to move or a neighbor sold a house, etc. It was an occasional discussion, not an obsession. Since sometime inthe late 90s, it seemed that the world went real estate mad, and conversations about RE could be overheard everywhere. We will all be better off when people stop seeing RE as a path to quick riches.

  24. yo says:

    Cuba is the only country I know that is Eco friendly.It is actually a dream of going there for a vacation.

  25. Shore Guy says:

    Affluent foreigners are rushing to take advantage of a federal immigration program that offers them the chance to obtain a green card in return for investing in construction projects in the United States. With credit tight, the program has unexpectedly turned into a mainstay for the financing of these projects in New York, California, Texas and other states.
    snip

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/19/nyregion/new-york-developers-take-advantage-of-financing-for-visas-program.html?google_editors_picks=true

  26. grim says:

    Somebody better appoint Michael Jordan as ambassador to North Korea, and do it quick.

  27. yo says:

    I know somebody from mother country that opened a franchise business from the motherland in Cali.They were offered a green card and gave the card to relatives instead.They did not think they need it.Tax consequences of having income around the world and paying uncle sam at the same time.

  28. yo says:

    Will a better outlook for peace better now that Kim is gone? Cuba is starting to turn around.

  29. livinginPA says:

    #16 – rehabbed by a construction company with a loan for that purpose. it seems loan is nearing end of its term. How can their price per sq ft be so out of line? Or isn’t it? Not really interested in this property per se but it’s skewing others’ expectations in the market. Reality is not/has not been embraced by those few who are actually on market.

  30. JJ says:

    wow WSJ said today that households headed by oldest baby boomers have only 85K on average saved for retirement. How it that even possible? Did they raid their 401k accounts or never put in. I had a job way way back where I never made more than 42K and never put more than 6% in. That account alone is around 95K. Stocks were very cheap up to around 1998. Pretty much from 1988 to 1998 and the whole 70s and first half of 80s too. How is it possible. They were buying stocks at Dow 2k, it is Dow 12K. With compounding of dividends and interest and match you could have ten dollars for every dollar invested 1991. Crazy. Plus that 85K when they withdrawl sill taxes, 85K at most can fund 3-4 years worth of retirement as a suplement to SS. What do they do when they are 75? Guess home equity would keep going up and never a recession. But pretty much 40 without retirement savings is a wake up call, 50 is a fire drill. 60 is way too late to start.

  31. Anon E. Moose says:

    NE [9];

    You think its quiet around here, try hosting an open house.

    Ain’t that the truth. Popped into one yesterday@ 2PM (open 12-4), I was second on the list. A third right behind me. Record traffic!

  32. Confused in NJ says:

    COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — After nearly 40 years in public education, Patrick Godwin spends his retirement days running a horse farm east of Sacramento, Calif., with his daughter.

    His departure from the workaday world is likely to be long and relatively free of financial concerns, after he retired last July at age 59 with a pension paying $174,308 a year for the rest of his life.

    Such guaranteed pensions for relatively youthful government retirees — paid in similar fashion to millions nationwide — are contributing to nationwide friction with the public sector workers. They have access to attractive defined-benefit pensions and retiree health care coverage that most private sector workers no longer do.

    Experts say eligible retirement ages have fallen over the past two decades for many reasons, including contract agreements between states and government labor unions that lowered retirement ages in lieu of raising pay.

    With Americans increasingly likely to live well into their 80s, critics question whether paying lifetime pensions to retirees from age 55 or 60 is financially sustainable. An Associated Press survey earlier this year found the 50 states have a combined $690 billion in unfunded pension liabilities and $418 billion in retiree health care obligations.

  33. Anon E. Moose says:

    JJ [30];

    The Locust Generation. The grasshoper didn’t work or save like the ant did, remember?

  34. gary says:

    grim [6],

    The bottom is not in. We have a few more years to go followed by a decade of wading through catfish sh1t.

  35. gary says:

    But rather than accept lower prices for their homes, many are simply delaying plans to sell, if they can.

    And many of us are still solvent and are delaying plans to buy, because they can.

  36. gary says:

    “Buyers are seeing incredible savings in comparison to just a couple of years ago,” said John Reilly of Century 21 Van Der Wende Associates in Little Falls, who says prices have returned to 2003 levels in many towns.

    Tick… tick… tick.., tick…

  37. gary says:

    As painful as it is to see housing wealth disappear, “most sellers at this point have adjusted to the new pricing realities,” said Beth Freed of Prominent Properties Sotheby’s International Realty in Ridgewood.

    You mean, we won’t be priced out forever?

  38. Bocephus says:

    35. I got a case of beer says “Gary” won’t be a homeowner this time 5 years from now.

  39. The Original NJ Expat says:

    I think that there are way too many factors affecting some real estate markets to call a bottom based on prices. In NJ, I think the market will stay flat at best until the current boom ends. Current boom? Nope, not precious metals. Not US Treasuries. Property taxes. Add to that the unknown duration of the current NNJ bust. Current bust? Not residential housing sales or construction, but rather NYC jobs in financial services firms. Blue ribbony little hamlets like Glen Rock, with it’s two train lines FILLED with guys who currently hold white collar jobs in NYC finance, will not see continued price appreciation until stability is in sight for both property taxes and NYC finance-related jobs.

  40. gary says:

    Bocephus [38],

    I’m a current homeowner for 17 years now. Pay up.

  41. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (40) Gary and sx,

    I am willing to hold the beer in escrow pending a title check of Gary.

  42. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    I was being facetious about Jamil, BTW

  43. JJ says:

    You use of logic and facts to support your opinion is quite scary. Ranting and Raving is our most common means of getting our point across.

    The Original NJ Expat says:
    December 19, 2011 at 9:14 am
    I think that there are way too many factors affecting some real estate markets to call a bottom based on prices. In NJ, I think the market will stay flat at best until the current boom ends. Current boom? Nope, not precious metals. Not US Treasuries. Property taxes. Add to that the unknown duration of the current NNJ bust. Current bust? Not residential housing sales or construction, but rather NYC jobs in financial services firms. Blue ribbony little hamlets like Glen Rock, with it’s two train lines FILLED with guys who currently hold white collar jobs in NYC finance, will not see continued price appreciation until stability is in sight for both property taxes and NYC finance-related jobs.

  44. Anon E. Moose says:

    Gary [40];

    I think you’ll brew a beer or die of thirst long before you drink that bet.

  45. Anon E. Moose says:

    Yahoo Headline: “Occupy Movement Inspires Year’s Top Quote”

    >“We need more; you have more,” one protester, Amin Husain, 36, told a Trinity official on Thursday<

  46. seif says:

    the bet is:

    “Gary” won’t be a homeowner this time 5 years from now”

    no one can collect on that bet until 5 years from today. a lot could happen in 5 years.

  47. Anon E. Moose says:

    Seif [46];

    As the joke goes: …the horse may learn to talk.

  48. Bocephus says:

    40. Self-loathing? Or just confused?

  49. homeboken says:

    40. Self-loathing? Or just confused?

    Or eyes open to reality

  50. JJ says:

    I own a home, no mortgage, deed in my name and no open line of credit on home and all property taxes paid up. I doubt many people own a home on this website. You don’t own it till mortgage is paid off, otherwise you are a Kmart Lay-away type waiting till make that final payment.

    I love it how people like last night on 60 minutes claim they “own underwater homes” If you have zero equity you don’t own anything. Heck if you put down 5%, you own 5% of a home. Funny once home is paid off market movements in house is not that important. If my house falls to one dollar in value big deal. However, if I had a 300K mortgage and home fell to one dollar big decesions are to be made. But I paid off my home and bought a car cash around September 2008. Had cds maturing into low rates, felt market was getting dicey and wanted to get aggresive in my investing accounts. Had I had that money in the market I would have got killed. The money I saved from not having market losses and not making interest payments for 3 years more than off sets risk I cant walk away. Plus all these horor stories of people 50 years old losing jobs who took out big mortgages when they were 43 not in the poor house with underwater houses and no savings as mortgage sucked up income for last 7 years is a scary tale.0 You would think getting a trade up house at 43 at peak earning years would work out, instead RE collasped and 50 somethings were fired. Plus old tale you can refinance when rates fall and houses only rise did not work. Sure rates fell, but you can’t finance an underwater house when you are unemployed.

    seif says:
    December 19, 2011 at 10:23 am
    the bet is:

    “Gary” won’t be a homeowner this time 5 years from now”

    no one can collect on that bet until 5 years from today. a lot could happen in 5 years.

  51. The Original NJ Expat says:

    [7] grim, Westchester – My best friend of over 30 years is mired in Mamaroneck due to one bad decision. He sold his then $500K+ house there and took his $300K or so of equity and bought a much bigger house 3 or 4 blocks away for $850K. He also took out a HELOC to do renovations on his 2600 square foot Vic built in 1890. Date of purchase, December 2006. Ouch. To add insult to injury his taxes were less than $9K back in 2006 when his house was assessed at $789K. Now his house is assessed at $683K. His taxes now? Only $16K. Double ouch.

  52. gary says:

    Bocephus [50],

    I’ve explained it a million times.

  53. funnelcloud says:

    But rather than accept lower prices for their homes, many are simply delaying plans to sell, if they can.

    Translation:: They are never going to see there ask price in this lifetime

  54. Bocephus says:

    52. Perhaps you feel…. Trapped.

    It’s only money.

  55. The Original NJ Expat says:

    [50] jj – I love it how people like last night on 60 minutes claim they “own underwater homes” If you have zero equity you don’t own anything.

    I was thinking the *exact* same thing. What they *do* have is a way over-market 30 year lease-to-own contract with maintenance and tax exposure.

    I’m a 75-80% owner of our home and I entertain paying the rest off every day simply because that’s what just about everyone else doesn’t do. If everybody is on the same side of the same ship, it might not be as a good a trade as it looks as the water looms near.

  56. Dan in debt says:

    Has the place gotten boring? No. The real estate market got boring. Come on. Most of us were here posting back in 2007 and 2008 waiting for the maket to crash. It did! We can declare victory and say we were right even if some of us were dumb enough to buy houses this year. And I want to put an asterik on that only because if wifey didn’t get pregnant, I’d have holded out and even dealt with rent increases while houses dropped more.

    Besides, the last couple of months, the European train wreck has been more interesting than the housing market so why shouldn’t the place take a lull?

  57. gary says:

    I’m a 75-80% owner of our home and I entertain paying the rest off every day simply because that’s what just about everyone else doesn’t do.

    Same here. The cars are paid for and I figure just pay the rest of the mortgage.

  58. JJ says:

    Also one women said she was 50K underwater on a 100K house and she was way underwater. She only put down most likely 5k on the house. She wants the govt to wipe out 50K loss and let her refinance the remaining 50K. She feels she put her signature on a piece of paper and she bought house and wants to stay. But why is that anyone else’s problem? My POS at the absolute peak of the market was worth almost 600K now it is worth around 450k. Should someone give me a check for 150K to make up difference, of course not. What difference does it make if property is mortgaged. Are people who paid 100K for house cash also going to get reimbursed? A deal is a deal. Of course a lender can extend terms, lower rates, or on their own forgive a bit of balance. But to force them to write it down to market value is crazy.

    The Original NJ Expat says:
    December 19, 2011 at 11:20 am
    [50] jj – I love it how people like last night on 60 minutes claim they “own underwater homes” If you have zero equity you don’t own anything.

    I was thinking the *exact* same thing. What they *do* have is a way over-market 30 year lease-to-own contract with maintenance and tax exposure.

    I’m a 75-80% owner of our home and I entertain paying the rest off every day simply because that’s what just about everyone else doesn’t do. If everybody is on the same side of the same ship, it might not be as a good a trade as it looks as the water looms near.

  59. Bocephus says:

    Wow you guys are f*cking geniuses. Yeah, the bank owns it til it’s paid off. No wonder most of you idiots can spend all day “blogging” about what most of us take for granted. That’s the boring part. FYI

  60. Confused in NJ says:

    Texas Rep. Ron Paul has surpassed former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich to take the lead in Iowa, according to the latest polling from Public Policy Polling (PPP).

    With just over two weeks until the Iowa caucuses, Paul now leads the field with 23 percent of the vote. He is closely followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, while Gingrich has fallen behind to 14 percent. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum are tied for fourth with 10 percent each.

  61. grim says:

    Don’t care to argue the technical differences of ownership given lien and title theories.

    But because we’re lien theory here in Jersey, the owner owns the house, and the bank holds a lien.

    This isn’t the case for title theory states, where the bank holds the deed in trust, and allows the “owner” to live in the home until the mortgage is settled and the deed transfered.

  62. Painhrtz - I ain't dead yet says:

    Confused, Paul would have to take some of the southern states which isn’t going to happen to win. Then again miracles can happen. Probably looking at a brokered convention with states votes split between three potential candidates, which is the best thing for Obama and worst thing for the republicans. That is the unfortunate reality, and that is coming from a libertarain who supports Paul.

    The clusterf*ck war for the republican parties soul between the neocons, moderates and small government types is playing out in the debates. The chickenhawk war and fear mongerers are coming out on top. Chairman O is probably laughing while planning his next vacation.

  63. JJ says:

    Sadly, back in the 50s-70’s people had mortgage burning parties to celebrate paying off the bank debt. In the 2000-2007 era people threw house warming parties to celebrate the taking on of more debt.

    Bocephus says:
    December 19, 2011 at 11:38 am
    Wow you guys are f*cking geniuses. Yeah, the bank owns it til it’s paid off. No wonder most of you idiots can spend all day “blogging” about what most of us take for granted. That’s the boring part. FYI

  64. Bystander says:

    #3,

    Piece was ok but too focused on poor ole Cleveland. Get me some Westchester or Bergen stories. I guess they don’t exist. That woman who stated her signature “means something” and will continue to pay even though mortgage 100k underwater? She needs a reality check. That covenant was broken when every fool with a pulse got a 0% down mortgage?

  65. grim says:

    JJ – Are you basing that on being invited to the party? People still pay off mortgages, they just don’t hold the parties.

    One thing to hold a party and invite all your indebted friends, but to hold a party to celebrate being debt free? These days nobody would come. Borders on being downright pretentious, surely the wrong kind of conspicuous consumption.

  66. The Original NJ Expat says:

    [65] grim – One thing to hold a party and invite all your indebted friends, but to hold a party to celebrate being debt free? Borders on being downright pretentious, surely the wrong kind of conspicuous consumption.

    I think you mis-cued and proved JJ’s point with that statement as that’s what a mortgage party was, most of the guests still did have mortgages. What you meant to say was that it would pretentious to invite all your friends who have spent their whole adult lives *always* being 30 years away from being debt free to a party they will probably never be able to throw.

  67. The Original NJ Expat says:

    mortgage-burning party, I meant. I guess what people now throw really are mortgage parties;-)

  68. Dan in debt says:

    I guess the Chinese knew their housing market was going to crash….

    Their solution: Build a second Manhattan of course so that China’s proximity to Manhattan would make housing more appealing. Of course, that might not work out so well.

    http://ewallstreeter.com/too-big-to-complete-chinese-replica-of-manhattan-may-need-bailout-home-prices-drop-in-of-cities-banks-under-report-debt-11218/#

  69. yo says:

    I own my second home free and clear.I am holding the deed.Thanks to my first home for letting me cash out.Just working on fictitious LLC to get the second home out of my back.

  70. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    I’ll still hold the beer in escrow. If its any good, I’ll drink it and pay it back later, and if I can’t, I’ll strategically default.

    Seems like a fitting plan considering the subject.

  71. JJ says:

    I think maybe a liquid net worth of investable assets of one million or greater party would be better. Maybe I can market millionaire parties!! People used to celebrate one million in real estate net worth why not one million in investment grade bonds, blue chips stocks and cash party for when those folks hit one million.

    Bottom line is young people have never been told debt is bad, when your shih tzu poops on your front lawn you stick his nose in it and smack him and yell bad, bad, bad.

    So when your stupid kids or son-in-law or daughter in law took out expensive car leases and second mortgages someone should have pushed their nose in these piles of poop and yell bad bad bad. Instead they got slapped on the back for having a new lexus and a toll brothers mcmansion.

    grim says:
    December 19, 2011 at 11:59 am
    JJ – Are you basing that on being invited to the party? People still pay off mortgages, they just don’t hold the parties.

    One thing to hold a party and invite all your indebted friends, but to hold a party to celebrate being debt free? These days nobody would come. Borders on being downright pretentious, surely the wrong kind of conspicuous consumption.

  72. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Could not have said it better myself:

    “Guys made great runs after the catch [Sunday],” Brady said. “The defense made plays, and we capitalized. People did their jobs. And the Jets lost. All in all, it was a good day for the Patriots.”

  73. grim says:

    70 – Co-mingling the beer is still co-mingling, what would the NJ Bar say?

  74. grim says:

    67 – I think they stopped taking place because guests kept on confusing key parties and mortgage parties back in the late 70s and early 80s. Talk about an embarrassing mix-up…

  75. JJ says:

    Back in the Spring of 74 there was a extremely popular place on the corner of Northern Blvd and Lakeville Road in Great Neck. Big large building with valet parking and Mercedes, Caddies etc pulling up with couples dressed to nines and great music and food with a large bar. Big lines to get in. Well Dad who never goes out goes to Mom lets give it a try they get all dressed up and go and are back in 15 minutes. It was a swingers club!!! I mean a really big one. That place was large enough that when they tore it down they build a large six store office building with parking and room for a big set back from street. Think about it only around 35K people livedi n Great Neck at time and that includes, kids, singles and old people. That club held around 2,000 people. Which means everyone in town who was married was there Everybody. Even crazier there was another place on the LIE service road in Great Neck at time called Lakeville Manor, held around 1,500 too, that was a divorcee/singles bar where you went for one night stands. The 70s was wild. 10% of Great Neck was out having random hook ups every night of week. Meanwhile flash forward to 2011 kids are tweeting and playing video games while drinking bottled water in Great Neck.

    grim says:
    December 19, 2011 at 12:47 pm
    67 – I think they stopped taking place because guests kept on confusing key parties and mortgage parties back in the late 70s and early 80s. Talk about an embarrassing mix-up…

  76. Anon E. Moose says:

    Bocephus [49];

    Wow you guys are f*cking geniuses. Yeah, the bank owns it til it’s paid off. No wonder most of you idiots can spend all day “blogging” about what most of us take for granted. That’s the boring part. FYI

    How does an @$$ as big as you fit in front of a keyboard to type?

    Here’s the way its supposed to work: don’t pay your rent — the landlord kicks you out; don’t pay your mortgage — the bank kicks you out.

    That last part got all F-ed up because of bleeding heart stories about peopele’s “own” houses; even though they didn’t pay two nickels for them. If someone “owns” a house, they should be able to prove title for it. If they paid hardly anything for the priviledge of squatting there (3% down FHA – seller’s concession to cover even that much – “mortgage assistance organization” funded by the seller to cover closing costs, etc.), they don’t “own” $h!t; and they get to stay as long as they pay on time every month — just like a renter.

  77. Nicholas says:

    When I joined this blog back in 2007-2008 my knowledge level was woefully inadequate regarding real estate even though I had bought RE before. This blog has helped me bring together information resources as well as shaped the way I think critically about real estate. The blog continues to shape my thoughts but at a much slower pace, mostly due to my education in RE becomming more mature.

    I am still waiting to buy a house but I do so by paying close attention to the market and current sales in my search areas. I get weekly notes from RE agents telling me it is a great time to buy and that events are lining up in my favor. Without the skills learned from conversing on this blog I don’t think I would have the ability to sift through the BS.

    Here are the average sale price for Bowie MD, 20715 which includes about 20-25 sales per month since the housing bust. There were 40-45 sales per month before the bust.

    November 05 $363,259
    November 06 $361,207
    November 07 $393,583
    November 08 $322,986
    November 09 $277,506
    November 10 $287,400
    November 11 $236,046

    If I were to have bought a house last year in 20715 I would have lost on average 51,000$. If I would have bought in 2007 like I had originally intended I would have, on average, been out 157,500$. This information stands in direct defiance to all the RE agents that would sell you out in a heart beat if they think that they could get the sale closed.

    Thank you Grim for creating a place where people can exchange information and share ideas on housing and real estate that doesn’t suck.

  78. chicagofinance says:

    What happened to the kettle-tool? Also, Jam Master Jamil and clot are mostly off the board…it takes out about 30% of the posts……

    Dan in debt says:
    December 19, 2011 at 11:25 am
    Has the place gotten boring? No. The real estate market got boring. Come on. Most of us were here posting back in 2007 and 2008 waiting for the maket to crash. It did! We can declare victory and say we were right even if some of us were dumb enough to buy houses this year. And I want to put an asterik on that only because if wifey didn’t get pregnant, I’d have holded out and even dealt with rent increases while houses dropped more.

  79. Happy Renter says:

    [76] Stop making sense; that’s crazy talk.

  80. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [73] grim

    ” what would the NJ Bar say?”

    “Another round?”

  81. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    some actual real estate themed news from me for once:

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/janetnovack/2011/12/18/federal-judge-green-lights-irs-search-for-california-gift-tax-cheats/

    BTW, New Jersey is already reporting this data. So if you are gonna gift your real estate to family, I suggest you talk to the lawyer first.

  82. JJ says:

    Nicholas, my indication was I looked at a trade up home in a town with big five bedroom homes with three baths and a pool around 3,500 square feet in spring 2008 and for around one million you got an estate sale that need to be knocked down and gutter. All the houses there were built around 1960 so original owner who never did anything. Flash forward to December 2011. Homes bought at peak from orginal owners with new roofs, siding, bathrooms, kitchens all redone in short sale are going for 999K. Which means someone who paid 999K in spring of 2008 spent 200K to renovate home that is now worth 999K. Not only the loss of 200K in three years is a kick but the headaches of doing something like that. Plus rates are a lot lower now and person buying now has chance at lower property taxes and seller paying some closing costs. Trouble is April 2004 to April 2012 is a long time to fence sit for a couple who got married in June of 2004. Many tried to catch a falling knife in 2008 and 2009 and got burnt. Homes that got the 8K tax break are already showing up on short sales. And yes they get to keep tax break!

  83. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Final thought of the day: If anyone needs a Christmas gift idea for me, here’s an appropriate one:

    http://www.ties.com/v/a/alynn-novelty-i%27m-running-short-navy-blue-tie

    I’d post JJ’s suggestion but ashleymadison.com isn’t safe for work.

  84. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    oh, and Clot, if you were looking for a gift idea for moose:

    http://www.ties.com/v/a/alynn-novelty-merry-x-moose-red-boys-tie

    instead of the IED you had in mind, that is.

    Okay, off to work. Peace (and goodwill toward men) Out!

  85. Nicholas says:

    I posted a few times about the housing tax credit being a bad idea when it came out. I could see right away that it was only a gift to banks and RE agents and would do nothing for the average seller and be a punishment to the buyer.

    I won’t rehash those arguments here but if you bought a house during the housing tax credit you paid mightily for your mistake.

    JJ, I think that you are assuming that fence sitting was all that terrible when in reality it wasn’t. I have rented people’s homes for the last 4 years and while not ideal it certainly wasn’t awful. This holiday season I give thanks to all the distressed homeowners who rented their property at a loss just to keep their financial ship from going under. Townhomes, single-family homes, every listing that you see is also for rent.

    I received in the mail last month 3 offers for “no income, no asset, no appraisal, skip first payment” loan offers from people wanting to refinance VA loans. I find it very disturbing that these types of programs still exist using federal money. I have written my senators and congressmen asking them to find this program and cut it from the budget. No one, not even veterans, have the right to poorly structured loans at the expense of taxpayers.

  86. Nicholas says:

    “Mortgage Equity Withdrawal strongly negative”
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/q3-2011-mortgage-equity-withdrawal.html

    So, I’m reading this article about MEW and I’m having some conflicted thoughts about what this means. Perhaps there might be others that have had to look at this chart longer than I have and determine what it means.

    It appears that MEW has gone highly negative since 2008 and has held there. This appears to be from a couple of different reasons which the author points out.

    1. There is a segment of the population that is getting forclosed on or having short sales done. This reduces the outstanding mortgage balance on the collective.

    2. There is some segment that is prepaying their mortgage. Counted in this number are those that just make regular payments and don’t have IOs or NegA loans.

    Since the US is based upon a fractional reserve banking system, borrowing is very important to the expansion rate of money in our society. The thought is that I borrow a dollar spend it and that spent dollar gets put in some bank somewhere for someone else to borrow a portion of it. Every real dollar in existence creates other dollars based upon reserve rate and how long it takes depends on the “velocity of money”. This has gotten pretty nerdy but in general here is my question.

    If borrowing is important to the expansion rate of money then does it mean that the US is still in a period of contraction if the MEW rate is still negative? Mortgage debt has declined 730 billion dollars over the last 14 quarters according to the article. That demand destruction for debt in a fractional reserve system means that multiples of that amount are not flowing around the economy.

    Does this data give you a warm fuzzy for the future? How do you treat this data with everything else that you see? Is this why we think that QE3 will be comming soon?

  87. Libtard in the City says:

    I’m not sure if the bottom is in, but the foreclosure listings which used to number in the 130s for Montclair and the 30s for Glen Ridge now number 36 and 5 respectively. The homebuilder stocks seem to have bottomed, and everyone knows that equities are forward looking. If the bottom’s not in, then I would be very surprised (and usually I’m not). The next ‘wow’ moment will occur when home prices no longer increase in value more than our nascent inflation rate which too will have the sheep mystified.

    http://realestate.yahoo.com/search/New_Jersey/Montclair/foreclosures?b=1&p=Montclair%2C%20NJ&type=foreclosure&radius=&lat=40.812080&lon=-74.212272&datelisted=&priceLow=0&priceHigh=Unlimited&bedroomLow=&searchName=&bathroomLow=&sqLow=0&sqHigh=Unlimited&n=30&view=list&sortBy=ctime%200

  88. grim says:

    The next ‘wow’ moment will occur when home prices no longer increase in value more than our nascent inflation rate which too will have the sheep mystified.

    Agree with this, but realize that the industry and media will pump the “recovery next year” mantra every year until it actually starts to happen. Blame will be put on rising interest rates, the weather, the attractiveness of other asset classes, etc etc.

  89. Libtard in the City says:

    ^tnx = $1.81 Refi coming.

  90. Nicholas says:

    Lib,

    It appears that NJ halted forclosure actions for over a year as they went through the robofraud departments at big banks. I would expect forclosures for sale to reach a low soon. I don’t think that means the bottom of the market is in though. As those forclosures make it back onto the market I think we will see another leg down in some areas.

    I’m not convinced that we are at the bottom of the market yet. I agree with you though that even as we reach “bottom” where prices are stabilizing that eventually we will reach a period of stagnation where inflation does the rest of the work in bringing down house prices.

    My sister, who lost big by buying a house in 2007 told me the other day that “you should stay away from housing it is in trouble”. I take everything she and her husband say as a contra-indicator of what is really happening. That made me look even harder at housing’s value. I do think we are close to that nominal bottom but my guess is that it will occur in fall of 2012 if it does happen.

  91. gary says:

    We’re not at the bottom yet. We’ve got a couple of years to go yet.

  92. Confused in NJ says:

    ‘The Taliban, Per Se, Is Not Our Enemy’: VP Biden’s Jaw-Dropping Gaffe

  93. Painhrtz - I ain't dead yet says:

    Confused We were always at war with…. insert 1984 contextual comment here.

    guess old Joe is looking for a peace with honor moment, unfortunately no one told him he is not in charge. got an email from Ket so he is still kicking, but I think his constant talk on here finally tripped the IT filters at work.

  94. Libtard in the City says:

    Confused = Jamil?

    :P

  95. JJ says:

    Just noticed ING Direct lowered rates again, wow Amazing a two year CD pays 1/2 of 1% interest. Five year pays one percent. In December 2007 a one year CD was 5%. Today .05%, For someone rolling a 100K one year cd that is going from 5K a year interest income to $500 a year interest income.

    Orange CD Options
    Term APY Effective
    Date
    6 Month 0.50% 12/03/2011
    9 Month 0.50% 12/03/2011
    12 Month 0.50% 12/03/2011
    18 Month 0.50% 12/03/2011
    24 Month 0.50% 12/03/2011
    30 Month 0.80% 12/03/2011
    36 Month 0.80% 12/03/2011
    48 Month 0.80% 12/03/2011
    60 Month 1.00% 12/03/2011

  96. evildoc says:

    —-the bet is:

    “Gary” won’t be a homeowner this time 5 years from now”——

    In a practical sense, absolutely no one on this list is or ever will be a “homeowner”

  97. Bocephus says:

    I like owning. So to speak. I’d rather pay “me” than someone else.

  98. POS cape says:

    [95] JJ

    I used to have a savings account with ING until TD bank offered higher rates. I emailed customer service and asked how could my local brick and mortar S&L offer a higher rate than an online bank with little overhead? The response was “ING Direct offers competitive rates blah blah blah…”

  99. Confused in NJ says:

    Hudson City Savings CD rates NJ

    Current Annual Percentage Yield (APY) as of 12/16/11
    All interest rates are subject to change without notice.
    Interest compounded daily and credited monthly on last business day.
    Account Title Compound Method Interest Rate APY Term (Months)

    91-Day Simple 0.75%
    4-Month Daily 0.75%
    5-Month Daily 0.75%
    6-Month Simple 0.75%
    7-Month Daily 0.75%
    9-Month Daily 0.75%
    1-Year Daily 1.00%
    13-Month Daily 1.00%
    18-Month Daily 1.10%
    2-Year Daily 1.25%
    30-Month Daily 1.25%
    3-Year Daily 1.50%
    4-Year Daily 1.75%
    5-Year Daily 2.00%

    Minimum deposit of $500 must be maintained to receive posted rate of interest. Penalty for early withdrawal.

  100. BearsFan says:

    guys, i’m actually surprised some of you think we are close to a nominal bottom. none of what we know as fact would suggest such…
    a) demographics (# of people turning 63 daily is sky high)
    b) borrowing costs at all time lows
    c) rental costs (taxes) slowing with adjustments but we’ll see rates adjusted soon
    d) and we’re beginning a massive wave of stagflation
    AND
    there is little to no demand. There is no raging bull being held back in chains just waiting to get unleashed. All we have are steps down, and each step down hits a small wave buyer price points who act, and this gets exhausted rather quickly. The wave of NY transplants into Jersey who cashed in their SI/Brooklyn home is done too. The only thing that will matter is wages, and they are not moving anytime soon from what I can gather, in fact, just the opposite. Sure, no one knows, but someone lay out the quantitative and (if applicable), qualitative story of this bottom please if u believe it. Thanks…BF

  101. expat (67)-

    I’ve seen a couple of homes where the owner abandoned it, then squatters moved in and set indoor fires.

    What kind of party is that?

  102. cobbler says:

    meat [101]
    While I’d like to encourage the organized house demolitions by the foreclosing party, having the squatters do this is still acceptable as long as the insurance company pays for the demolition after the fire.

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