Where have all the foreclosures gone?

From the Record:

One in 12 N.J. home sales was a foreclosure in third quarter

About one in every 12 New Jersey home sales in the third quarter of 2011 involved foreclosed properties — a steep drop from the previous year, according to RealtyTrac, a California company that follows the foreclosure market.

Nationally, foreclosure sales made up 20 percent of sales in the third quarter, down from 30 percent in the same period a year earlier.

Lenders have sharply pulled back on foreclosure activity since fall 2010, when reports arose that lenders’ representatives were “robo-signing” affidavits and other documents — signing them so quickly they couldn’t be verified. Lenders are now trying to show courts in New Jersey and other states that they are not cutting corners in foreclosures. And state attorneys general are close to a settlement with lenders over their foreclosure practices.

“Even with the hurdles to selling foreclosures, foreclosure sales continue to represent a historically high percentage of all sales,” said Brandon Moore, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “In 2005 and 2006, foreclosure sales consistently accounted for less than 5 percent of all sales nationwide.”

Foreclosed properties typically sell at a steep discount, which tends to pull down the prices of competing properties. In New Jersey, foreclosed properties sold for an average of $208,801 in the third quarter, a 38 percent discount to regular properties. Nationally, foreclosed properties sold for an average $165,322, a 34 percent discount, RealtyTrac said.

“The sooner the market gets more clarity about accepted foreclosure procedures, primarily through the long-promised settlement between multiple states attorneys general and major lenders, the sooner the market can more efficiently dispose of these distressed properties,” Moore said.

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138 Responses to Where have all the foreclosures gone?

  1. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Contracts to Purchase Existing U.S. Homes Hold Near 19-Month High: Economy

    The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes in December held near a 19-month high, showing the stabilization in the market that began in late 2011 will extend into the new year.

    The index of pending home sales decreased 3.5 percent last month after jumping a combined 18 percent in October and November, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. It was the best back-to-back reading since a buyer tax credit boosted demand in early 2010.

    “We’ve had a clear turn toward positive momentum in the housing market,” Aaron Smith, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania, and the third most accurate forecaster of pending home sales. “Lower unemployment and higher confidence, coupled with record low mortgage rates, are coalescing to spur increased buying.”

    The ability of the market to sustain gains in the absence of government incentives may mean housing has stopped weighing on growth. President Barack Obama yesterday proposed a plan aimed at reducing monthly mortgage payments, which would help combat a drop in home prices that Federal Reserve policy makers say is impeding the world’s largest economy.

    Central bankers said today that they’ll keep their benchmark interest rate low until at least late 2014 to help stoke the economy.

  2. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  3. grim says:

    Christie’s Income Tax cut is a calculated ruse.

    He has no intention of cutting income taxes, however, the mere mention of it is sending democrats into a frenzy, with just about ever single one screaming that he should cut property taxes instead.

    Great way to get your detractors to support your originally intended goal.

    Nice work.

    Now get to work getting the unions to start battling each other.

  4. Mike says:

    Pop the cork!

  5. grim says:

    Snicker…

    From the WSJ:

    N.J. Tax Battle Revs Up

    Following Gov. Chris Christie’s proposal to slash income taxes, the fight shaping up here won’t be about whether to cut taxes, but how.

    Senate President Stephen Sweeney told The Wall Street Journal that Democrats are drawing up a competing plan to cut property taxes, as they seek to reposition themselves against the Republican governor’s headline-grabbing proposal to slash levies on income.

    Mr. Sweeney said property taxes hurt residents more than the income tax and he wants at least part of the $1 billion Mr. Christie’s plan would cost to reduce levies on homeowners. The average New Jersey homeowner paid $7,576 in property taxes in 2010, recent state figures show.

    “We’re not against tax cuts. We’re against being irresponsible,” Mr. Sweeney said. “If you are going to cut someone’s taxes, cut taxes where it’s going to have the biggest impact.”

    Democrats are waiting for more information from the governor’s office about how he would pay for the income-tax cut before estimating the size of their property-tax proposal.

  6. grim says:

    You sure Mike?

    From Bloomberg:

    Home Prices Fell 1.8% in November From Prior Year, FHFA Says

    U.S. home prices fell 1.8 percent in November from a year earlier, as foreclosures held back a recovery in property values.

    The decline was led by a 4.2 percent decrease in the region that includes California and Hawaii, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said today in a report from Washington. The second- largest drop was 3.7 percent in the area that includes New York and New Jersey.

    Foreclosures, which sell at a discount, have depressed prices even as housing demand shows signs of stabilizing. Sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose in December for a third month, reaching the highest level since January 2011, the National Association of Realtors said last week. Distressed properties — comprising foreclosures and short sales, where the price is less than the mortgage balance — accounted for almost a third of all purchases.

    Home prices in November rose 1 percent from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the FHFA. Economists projected no change, according to the average of 13 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

    The FHFA’s U.S. House Price Index is 19 percent below its April 2007 peak and about the same as the February 2004 level, according to the report.

  7. Mikeinwaiting says:

    I would not get all sh*ts & giggles just yet on housing.

  8. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    New Financial Crimes Unit Could Throw Wrench in ‘Robo’ Settlement

    Barely a few days ago, word was that a settlement among state attorneys general and the big banks over faulty foreclosure practice, i.e. “robo-signing”, was imminent.

    In fact, there was a big meeting on Monday in Chicago to try to seal the deal. It included Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Shaun Donovan, Associate U.S. Attorney General. Thomas Perelli, and several Democratic AG’s, including the lead negotiator, Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller.

    Now some say that could all be for naught.

    During his State of the Union address, President Obama announced he was ordering the U.S. Attorney General to create a “Financial Crimes Unit,” its number one task being to go after the banks for faulty mortgage originations and securitizations.

    “I am asking my Attorney General to create a special unit of federal prosecutors and leading state attorneys general to expand our investigations into the abusive lending and packaging of risky mortgages that led to the housing crisis. This new unit will hold accountable those who broke the law, speed assistance to homeowners, and help turn the page on an era of recklessness that hurt so many Americans,” the President said.

    The morning after has many analysts claiming that this new unit will scuttle that nearly-settled settlement over “robo-signing,” because it will tell banks that even though they are agreeing to pay states a multi-billion dollar penalty for bad foreclosure practices, the Federal government is still coming after them for securitization issues.

    “We believe industry is worried that this new task force will go after the banks for the origination of many of the mortgages that have defaulted or are now underwater,” writes Jaret Seiberg at Guggenheim Partners. “Either way, this further adds to the litigation mess that is hurting the housing market by forcing banks to keep underwriting standards tighter than warranted.”

  9. Mike says:

    Mimosa’s anyone?

  10. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Sounds good Mike.

  11. grim (8)-

    This is how you create 50-100 years of torpor in the housing market. There will be no settlement, no fines, no agreement on disposing of bad securitizations.

    There will only be meetings, posturing, threats, handwringing and multi-year squatting.

    I think I will revise my housing recovery call to 75-100 years. Everyone involved in this mess today will have to be dead in order for the institutional memory of both lenders and gubmint to be wiped of their toxic mindset.

    “The morning after has many analysts claiming that this new unit will scuttle that nearly-settled settlement over “robo-signing,” because it will tell banks that even though they are agreeing to pay states a multi-billion dollar penalty for bad foreclosure practices, the Federal government is still coming after them for securitization issues.

    “We believe industry is worried that this new task force will go after the banks for the origination of many of the mortgages that have defaulted or are now underwater,” writes Jaret Seiberg at Guggenheim Partners. “Either way, this further adds to the litigation mess that is hurting the housing market by forcing banks to keep underwriting standards tighter than warranted.”

  12. BTW, for shits and giggles, I asked my servicer and lender to produce my original mortgage note in late November. So far, nada.

    Hmmm…

  13. funnelcloud says:

    Morning Mike,
    I’m normally a scotch on the rocks kinds guy, Bloody Mary is a good breakfast drink though. Will you be serving any smoked salmon, Proscuitto or Jamon Iberico possible with some Bollas Gallegas Bread, Love breakfast European style.
    PS Do not forget the Danish

  14. My original note was National City. Wonder how it was conveyed to PNC when Nat City went belly-up?

    It didn’t go through MERS. Nothing in their database shows they ever touched it.

  15. grim says:

    “overly optimistic”

    Phrase of the year?

  16. Brian says:

    11 – Meat

    “I think I will revise my housing recovery call to 75-100 years.”

    Wow meat. Is this your way of saying you’re turning slightly bullish on housing? You used to predict extinction.

  17. Brian says:

    Warren Buffett’s Secretary Likely Makes Between $200,000 And $500,000/Year

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2012/01/25/warren-buffetts-secretary-likely-makes-between-200000-and-500000year/

    Poor thing. We ought to lower her tax bill. She can’t live on that!

  18. Neanderthal Economist says:

    ‘Overly stagnating’ for 75 years

  19. grim says:

    Sure she does, I’d pay my secretary that too if I was Buffet.

    Why?

    Cheap price to pay for loyalty given the extremely sensitive nature of the material he/she handles.

    The same does not apply to cops though, whoever brought that one up.

  20. JJ says:

    It just shows the disconnect between the poor and the wealthy. Someone working for 40K a year thinks 300K a year is a lot of money. It is only the difference between buying a CPO used car and a regular used car and fying to Disney vs. driving to Disney. 300K is not much money anymore. You need over one million to start tax avoidance strategies, most likely 200k to 500K is highest tax bracket.

    Brian says:
    January 26, 2012 at 8:13 am
    Warren Buffett’s Secretary Likely Makes Between $200,000 And $500,000/Year

  21. Painhrtz - I ain't dead yet says:

    between NJ property and income taxes wife and I are around 15K. not a huge number by New Jersey standards but enough to make our collective butts hurts as far as purchssing power.

    There is a real easy fix for NJ property taxes mike Doherty’s fair school funding plan. Don’t know about it look it up. It is a pipe dream though as union, hudson and camden counties collective board of eds will be screaming but what about the children.

  22. Brian says:

    19 – Grim

    I’m not surprised either but she just seems like a bad example. Sitting her next to Michelle Obama during the State of the Union adress gets everone talking about what Buffett said but, how’s the regular guy on the street supposed to sympathize with her?

  23. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [3] grim,

    Amen, and an interesting insight. I’m glad to see I wasn’t the only one scratching his head over what I thought was a proposal right out of left field (or right field, really).

    In the end, it may not matter as we aren’t going to keep our wealthy here anyway. Forbes published an article on where NOT to die in 2012. Guess how New Jersey rates?

    http://money.msn.com/tax-tips/post.aspx?post=cd74c784-15fd-44cb-86f1-4e8072b242a7

  24. Brian says:

    3 – Grim

    By the way yes, excellent insight. I had a feeling the proposal to reduce taxes was just a starting point for some sort of negotiation with the Democratically controlled State Legislature. I couldn’t see what he was angling for though. If you’re right, that’s really clever of Christie. I hope it works.

  25. JJ says:

    RE taxes are fun, I grieve, I fight, I brag with people who has lowest RE taxes. I like RE taxes. It is the state income tax I hate. Tied to my salary and interest income and stock sales I have no control over it, the state just steals and steals.

    Painhrtz – I ain’t dead yet says:
    January 26, 2012 at 8:34 am
    between NJ property and income taxes wife and I are around 15K. not a huge number by New Jersey standards but enough to make our collective butts hurts as far as purchssing power.

    There is a real easy fix for NJ property taxes mike Doherty’s fair school funding plan. Don’t know about it look it up. It is a pipe dream though as union, hudson and camden counties collective board of eds will be screaming but what about the children.

  26. Brian says:

    Anyone else think the Dems are in on it? It seems like if they pass some property tax reduction legislation, it would be a win for everybody.

    Maybe it’s just orchestrated to look like a fight.

  27. JJ says:

    Two policy makers — no names were attached to the forecasts — expect the funds rate to first begin rising in 2016.

  28. Juice Box says:

    JJ – did they chances were 50/50? This way I know they are real economist policy makers.

  29. vb says:

    Hi,
    We are looking at greenbrook. Any thoughts on schools and commute to NY are welcome.

    Thanks

  30. Libtard in the City says:

    You can’t cut both property taxes and income taxes without cutting spending. They work inversely. When Whitman lowered income taxes by 30%, she did it mainly by reducing state aid returned to the townships. She also continued NJ’s time honored tradition of not paying for the state pensions. Trust me, no spending cuts means just shifting the tax. Perhaps Christie will raise the gas tax to pay for it or add another zero to the cost of the tolls.

  31. chicagofinance says:

    Where have all the foreclosures gone?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPR108kwNo4

  32. Brian says:

    I have a friend that lives in Somerville. It’s not too far from there. He commutes by bus to the Port Authority Bus termial everyday. It takes him about an hour….give or take a few minutes.

  33. Brian says:

    33 was for vb @ 30

  34. chicagofinance says:

    Brian: give and give and give some more minutes my friend…..

  35. Mike says:

    Funnel 13 Now I know who to give all the bottles of Scotch to that I got from the vendors. I’m a big fan of smoked salmon. If you want a good Bloody Mary mix look for “Major Peters” not to many liquior stores carry it, but trust me I tried them all this one is the best!

  36. Anon E. Moose says:

    Why is there a backup eastbound on I-80 through Patterson every morning? I prefer to be a high-speed moving target.

  37. 3B says:

    #7 Mike: Not even close. Like i said yesterday, (IMO) rates low for the foreseeable future no hurry. And property taxes continuing to rise, entice me with the price. That is how I am approaching it. We have done some preliminary looking.

  38. 3B says:

    # 11by forcing banks to keep underwriting standards tighter than warranted.”
    Except for FHA.

  39. JJ says:

    Bottom line, you got to 1/16 to worry about rising interest rates. The spread between fed funds and three year treasury is huge, risk on baby risk on, but this time it is risks free risk on as fed is telling you borrow at fed funds rate and invest in 2-5 year rate and enjoy the spread.

    We all should have took 100K home equity loans in January 2011 and bought 30 year tax free munis at 7%. We would all be getting 7K interest tax free while paying 2% interest that is tax deductable.

    Juice Box says:
    January 26, 2012 at 9:31 am
    JJ – did they chances were 50/50? This way I know they are real economist policy makers

  40. The Original NJ Expat says:

    [14] clot My original note was National City. Wonder how it was conveyed to PNC when Nat City went belly-up?

    Ours was WAMU, the stationary on the bills stayed WAMU for a long, long, time after they went under now it says Chase. I checked a while back on one of those sites and and either FNMA or Freddie claims they have my mortgage, also no MERS record on file at the county. Does that mean our mortgage was never securitized?

  41. JJ says:

    Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) — Junk-bond trading volumes are rebounding to the highest level in 11 months as optimism the world’s largest economy can weather Europe’s debt crisis kindles investor appetites for riskier assets.

    The average daily volume of publicly traded speculative- grade bonds rose to $4.92 billion this month, a 74 percent increase from December and the most since February, according to the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority’s bond-pricing system. Sales of new junk bonds are accelerating at the fastest pace since September, and exchange-traded funds focused on the debt are growing at the fastest two-month pace since 2009.

    Trading in the $1 trillion market is picking up as the Federal Reserve said it will keep its benchmark interest rate low until at least late 2014.

    RISK ON!!!!

    CHIFI, check out BAC TRUPS ASK is hiting 101!

    btw nat city did not go under, PNC bought them. Wamu went under.

  42. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [37] mike

    Giving the scotch to funnelcloud???? I’m hurt.

  43. freedy says:

    http://www.courthousenews.com/2012/01/17/HidenSeek.pdf

    Here s the class action against Chase . This is not good for Chase

  44. 3B says:

    #44 JJ: People want yield so they will wade into junk bonds. Not for everyone though, especially the normally risk adverse.

  45. JJ says:

    Trouble is most broker dealers use a dual bond rating system, so unless both rating firms rate the bond A rated investment grade it is not considered investment grade.

    Very few corporate bonds have a investment grade rating from both major agencies and the ones that do pay extremely little interest. The risk adverse in junk now are looking at high B rated bonds. Ford, Bank of America, Bano Popular, Sallie Mae, etc. Junk bonds that are high B rated bonds on positive credit watch for an upgrade to investment grade is safest a risk adverse person can do and still get yield.

    Even in muni land, true A rated paper pays nothing. with rates staying low for all of 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 the difference between a 2% bond lets say and a 8% bank of america bond is HUGE. Giving up 6% a year for 7 years is 42% out the window.

    3B says:
    January 26, 2012 at 10:25 am
    #44 JJ: People want yield so they will wade into junk bonds. Not for everyone though, especially the normally risk adverse.

  46. 1987 Condo Buyer says:

    #31, let’s remember that the time Whitman cut the income tax, the Pension funds were fully funded. In particular, if the fund balance at that time was put into 4% T Bonds, the funds would still be fully funded now, even without any contributions.

  47. Juice Box says:

    re: # 49 – Go back a bit more in time to 1992 and you will see the accounting trick played by Florio’s administration when they increased the assumed return on pension assets from 7% to 8.75%. Contributions by the municipal city and the state govs were lowered and the surplus was used for their pet projects.

  48. JJ says:

    Yields on 2-year notes slid 3 basis points to 0.20%, touching their lowest level since September.

    1/5 of one percent yield on a two year bond. Just four years ago you could find one year 5% CDs. It will take you 25 years in January 2012 to earn the same amount of interest you could have earned in one year in January 2008.

  49. Brian says:

    35 – Chifi

    Just drive it. Leave your house at 4AM. Put that song by LMFAO ‘sexy and I know it’ on repeat and weave in and out of traffic. You’re there in 45 min.

  50. Painhrtz - I ain't dead yet says:

    moose 38 to look at the deer on Garret Mountain

  51. 1987 Condo Buyer says:

    #50, with an Actuarial science degree I was always troubled that Social Security was not pre-funded but rather pay as you go, but once the state and private pension systems realized that you could just assume 8%, 9%, 11% growth and thus reduce their contributoions (instead of pegging to actual 30 year treas rates), it turns out that Soc security may end up being the most secure system! How about that!

  52. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    I’m shocked to discover that NJ is ranked dead last in business tax climate (in my best Inspector Renault voice).

    http://taxfoundation.org/files/2012_tax_foundation_index_bp62.pdf

    The tax profs noted that the business tax climate is worst in blue states, and best in red states. Unfortunately, so many of those red states are places no one wants to live.

  53. 3B says:

    #48 JJ: Is there still that much of a difference in split ratings paper?

  54. gary says:

    Sold in 2003 for $775,000 and current asking is $724,750. The property taxes are $19,000 plus. That’s $1600 per month in property taxes. See, that’s a f*cking problem. And it’s the reason why those of us that would love to make a move, simply can’t, or won’t. It’s not justified. In fact, it’s absurd and laughable.

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3063030725-48-Deer-Trl-Ramsey-NJ-07446

  55. Brian says:

    58 – Gary

    25 miles from a metropolitan area. That makes it half a dump.

  56. prtraders2000 says:

    @20
    Trying to convince wifey that driving to Disney is the thing to do. 3 kids and we are in the sub 100k income group.

    BTW – the toll increase on the GSP has my roundtrip gas and tolls at roughly $30 per day ($11 in tolls). Wonder what effect this is having on the far flung commuting towns housing markets?

  57. Brian says:

    58 – Gary

    Somebody should just tell Wendy to make them a lowball offer. Let’s insult them!

  58. The Original NJ Expat says:

    [55] Nom I’m shocked to discover that NJ is ranked dead last in business tax climate (in my best Inspector Renault voice).

    And I am equally shocked to find NJ *LOST* it’s last place ranking in property tax onerousness. (It traded places with Connecticut and now lies next to last). Great report, I love that site. Thanks.

  59. 3B says:

    #58 gary: Yeah but doesn’t Deer Trail sound very prestigious??? On another note, even if it were to sell at current list price, that is a significant loss to what they paid for it back in 2003!!!! Which is around 9 years ago, and prices were getting insane than, and even more insane 2 or 3 years later.

  60. JJ says:

    There’s a possible “Cinderella scenario,” in which the U.S. economy may strengthen and fears of Euro contagion diminish, causing a shift to equities from bonds and an increase in rates.

    Cinderella Scenario risk? Dont I have enough to worry about?

  61. Wendy says:

    58 Gary and 63 Brian – ain’t no way I’m making any offer, lowball or otherwise, for a house with that tax burden, and to add insult to injury, that 1980’s kitchen. puh-leeze.

  62. gary says:

    Asking 3.8 million and you know it’s worth every penny:

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3052514246-Single-Family-Home-Clifton-NJ-07013

  63. JJ says:

    Banco Popular has a B something and a C something split. Crazy.
    3B says:
    January 26, 2012 at 11:21 am
    #48 JJ: Is there still that much of a difference in split ratings paper?

  64. gary says:

    Wendy [67],

    But… but… those taxes are for the children!

  65. Wendy says:

    58 Gary is right. That house is hopeless: the tax burden is something you can’t reno or rehab. It only goes up up up. When I bought my Essex Co. house in 2002, taxes were around $12K. When I sold in ’09, taxes were $17K. You just can’t justify it.

  66. Brian says:

    58 – Gary (and Wendy to)
    Is it a house or an office? I can’t figure it out. Why are there cubicles in the basement? I’d rather have one of those 50’s 60’s era bars in the basement.

  67. gary says:

    $6500 per month in PITI for that house after putting 150K down. It’s nauseating. The sellers are f*cked, along with thousands and thousands more.

  68. Wendy says:

    74 Brian – Yup, give me an old-school bar down there any day.

    Re: that Ramsey house –

    Zillow is showing taxes of $12K, in anticipation of successful tax appeal. Seems like a misrepresentation to me, unless they have commitment from Bergen Co to back it up. Seller is also offering a $5K credit, also in anticipation of that happy day.
    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/48-Deer-Trl-Ramsey-NJ-07446/38000678_zpid/

  69. gary says:

    Wendy,

    You had a $725 per year increase in taxes in your house. Mine works out to about 450 per year and counting. Try telling this to a potential buyer. In fact, try telling it to a realtor and their head will spin as pea soup spews from their pie hole. We have a long way to go with house price declines here.

  70. chicagofinance says:

    JJ: Across the board, any of my junky credit stuff just exploded in value off the map with the marks from year-end to close yesterday….holy schmoley?

  71. relo says:

    58:Gary,
    I know someone who looked at that house hoping they would rent it as they’re never selling w/in $100k of ask.

  72. Brian says:

    JJ –

    What’s involved in Grieving your taxes? I wanna recoup some of the extra money they’re taking from me since i put on my addition.

  73. joyce says:

    gary (68)

    that 3mil $ house has to by a typo, no?

  74. JJ says:

    Most Expensive Short Sale I have ever seen on Long Island.

    UPPER BROOKVILLE, NY 11771
    5935403

    Description:
    15,000 square feet graceful Estate/Castle built with architectural authenticity. Rare opportunity. Private road leads to a magnificent French castle over 4 rolling acres. Amazing moldings and details throughout, 50 ft formal reflecting pool and lush lawns are perfect for entertaining. Elevator to 3 floors, a generator for LIPA outages, Mahogany floors throughout, radiant and heated Jerusalem flooring in some areas. Hand painted walls in the breakfast room overlooking the beautiful garden. Must See! Conveniently located around many famous Golf and Country Club.

    Details:
    Bedrooms: 7
    Bathrooms: 7F/3H
    Property Type: Colonial
    Rooms: 18
    Outdoor Space: Yes
    Lot Size: 4 Acres
    Built: 2002
    School District: Oyster Bay

    Listing Price: $15,000,000
    Taxes: $72,519
    Status: Short Sale

  75. homeboken says:

    Joyce – 84 – I was thinking the same thing, there must be an extra zero tacked on the end there

  76. JJ says:

    GMAC and BAC Trups rocks. Massive inflow into JNK ETF type funks by retail customers seeking yield caused thinly traded in general Junk Bond Market to soar. I am up 28K YTD on my junk bonds.

    When you see American General and Affinnion Junk bonds pop that will be the canary in the coal mine telling you bubble is near popping.

    Honestly in December GMAC 2031 bonds with 9% coupon was trading around 90. That is sheer insantity they are TBTF. That is an oversized coupon. Those suckers are back at 101.

    Best performers are I picked up Countrywide Trups at 78 with a 8 coupon in mid October. Back near PAR.

    Dont know what old folks whine about when it comes to yield. 2012 Junk, 2011 munis, 2010 MBS, 2009, Junk, 2008, ten year treasuries 2007 and 2006 and before that just roll five year cds.

    The Fed has been overly transparent for like five years.
    chicagofinance says:
    January 26, 2012 at 12:40 pm
    JJ: Across the board, any of my junky credit stuff just exploded in value off the map with the marks from year-end to close yesterday….holy schmoley?

  77. gary says:

    Yes, it’s definitely a typo! lol!

  78. JJ says:

    1.3% on 7 year treasury auction. got to go to 30 years to get an investment grade 3.% muni.

    Massive refundings going on in NYS bonds this year, MTA is pretty much calling everything.

    When people like me have massive partial and full calls of high coupon bonds with only 1% bonds to buy then you will see housing start to recover.

  79. gary says:

    relo [81],

    The sun will be entering it’s final stage of life before they sell at anywhere near the asking price.

  80. Wendy says:

    90 gary – if they really are getting a 1/3 cut in their RE taxes, as stated on the Zillow listing (link above), their sale prospects go way up.

  81. NWNJHighlander says:

    Hello, I know where the foreclosures went.
    They are currently sitting on balance sheets so the bank managers can maintain their employment. Banks have serious internal agency conflicts that are being sorted out.

    I have a serious question,
    I NEED A RENT VS BUY CALCULATOR THAT CALCULATES EVERYTHING INVOLVED IN THE BUY SIDE, i.e. closing costs, commissions, insurance, etc.
    Does anyone have a link to one they can recommend?

  82. gary says:

    Wendy,

    1/3 cut sounds too good to be true. This one needs to be monitored, for sure.

  83. The Original NJ Expat says:

    My sister is even better than JJ at grieving her NJ taxes. She’s successfully grieved them down each of the last 4 years. In 2007 they were assessed at $1.5M with a tax bill of $24.6K. For 2011 she’s down to an assessment of $1M and a tax bill of $19.8K. She’s not such a good detective, though. She can’t seem to locate the equity they thought they bought with a $500K 30% down payment in 2005. It must be somewhere in that $1M house with it’s $1M mortgage.

  84. Anon E. Moose says:

    Gary [58];

    I saw one property recently going almost 10% (nominal) less than the most recent 2003 sale; over 25% down real (CPI).

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnuijDieOvY

  85. PGtips says:

    2011 New Home Sales Fall To Record Low, Median New Home Price At Lowest Since October 2010

    Looks like the earlier analysis that the US is slowly morphing into a second Japan just got even more confirmation. According to the Census Bureau (not NAR data, which we will hence ignore completely due to its consistent bias, error and overall worthlessness) December New Home Sales declined from 321K to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 307K in December, on expectations of a rise to 321K from last month’s revised 315K. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis the US sold a whopping 21K homes, the lowest since January 2011, and on par with the lowest on record.

    What is more troubling is that according to Bloomberg, the 2011 number of 302K sales is the lowest on record. Of these 21K, 5K were not even started.

    So much for that housing recovery.

    And also confirming that there is not even a glimmer of hope for the US housing market is that the Median Price for new homes just dropped from $215,700 to $210,300, which is the lowest median price since October 2010. The chart below of pricing trends indicates all that is needed to know which way the housing market is going.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2011-new-home-sales-fall-record-low-median-new-home-price-lowest-october-2010

  86. Anon E. Moose says:

    Gary [58];

    I looked at a listing that made bold promises of assesment appeals in the remarks. I checked the tax records and saw that the assesment was unchanged for 5 years. Admittedly, taxes had increased markedly in that time, but it was always based on teh same assesment. If it was so easy to knock the assesment down, why have the existing owners done nothing about it for so long?

  87. NWNJHighlander says:

    OH, btw, I was looking for a rent vs buy calculator to appeal a property tax bill.
    My cheap arse broker didn’t re-up the office MLSs’ fees in time so I have no freaking access atm until he gets it sorted.

    Got one neighbor/original owner’s family from 1930’s, have appealed their tax bill every year for at least 35 years at least… same stats as mine and they pay 1/2 the tax.

  88. Mike says:

    Nom 45 I’ll save some for you too

  89. JJ says:

    My best tax grievance was in early 2001, I claimed I over paid by $3,700 when I purchased my house and got my value reduced to $3,700 less than I paid for it a year earlier. Second best is claimed the assessed value of neighbors houses were over assessed and my house sould be assessed at the actual value of the neighbors houses not their assessed value. Town agreed neighbors houses were overassessed and lowered my assessment to match my perceived value of nieghbors houses without actually reducing my neigbors taxes. Sometimes I way overcomplicate it so they just say take 10% and go away.

    Latest strategy is I got pictures of neighbors getting deliveries this year. Take digital camera and snap shots of moving trucks, etc. Claim is I am in a heavy track street. I change strategy every year. Only one that did not work was zoom camera shot showing smoke stack right next to house that is two miles away. Apparantly they must have google maps. But really my zoom was making it look good

    The Original NJ Expat says:
    January 26, 2012 at 1:58 pm
    My sister is even better than JJ at grieving her NJ taxes. She’s successfully grieved them down each of the last 4 years. In 2007 they were assessed at $1.5M with a tax bill of $24.6K. For 2011 she’s down to an assessment of $1M and a tax bill of $19.8K. She’s not such a good detective, though. She can’t seem to locate the equity they thought they bought with a $500K 30% down payment in 2005. It must be somewhere in that $1M house with it’s $1M mortgage.

  90. Wow…selling the unsubstantiated promise of winning a tax appeal as one of the home’s features. That’s way beyond Ponzi in the hierarchy of con games.

    Feeling pretty safe in my call for recovery in 75-100 years…

  91. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [94] mike,

    With the week I’m having, I’ll need all of it.

  92. 1987 Condo Buyer says:

    #96, Let’s see in 1991 when I was 30 I had a negative net worth, my $140k condo was worth $80k and I just read reports that housing was dead…economically, demographically etc…..for the long term….15 years later, that condo I sold for $80k (since it never came would come back) was $250k and still now sells for almost $200k, and everyone’s house from the mid 1990″s seemed to have tripled and everyone was seemingly able to afford big houses…..who knew they were going to give out free money!!!!???!! I will not bet something else happens in the next 10-15 years to boost housing again…

  93. gary says:

    Meat [96],

    Isn’t that f*cking beautiful? Just when you think it doesn’t get any better, a new swindle is born!

  94. NJGator says:

    Here’s a fun calculator…

    Mitt’s Income vs. Your Income
    How long would it take the GOP candidate to earn what you make in a year?

    http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2012/01/romney_income_calculator_how_much_does_mitt_make_how_long_would_it_take_him_to_earn_your_salary_.single.html

  95. Fabius Maximus says:

    I never fully appreciated it, first time round! In todays light it still has impact, Newt hasn’t aged and looks just the same. Maybe he. Is Dorrian Gray!

    http://m.guardian.co.uk/ms/p/gnm/op/sdVJ4NbJnLZHR-DQO91AOkg/view.m?id=15&gid=commentisfree/cifamerica/2012/jan/25/newt-cry-baby-gingrich&cat=commentisfree

  96. 3B says:

    #98 1987: I am seeing co-ops with asking prices today the close to same sales prices of 1987.

  97. Barbara says:

    U guys watching CNN right now? WTF on this ivory tower proposal.

  98. Painhrtz - I ain't dead yet says:

    gary I saw that this morning and didn’t even bother too open it. Better headline would be “Low IQ leads to easily being swayed by ideolgy dependent on environmental influence”

    See Ghetto denziens and liberalism

  99. JJ says:

    Bernanke gave people a free pass to buy the belly of the curve,” Dan Mulholland, a Treasury trader in New York at RBC Capital Markets LLC,

    interesting, anyone who got an adjustable rate mortgage since 2007 is “winning” duh

  100. Juice Box says:

    Nom – nothing to see here right? As I said previously anyone running for president should divest into UST long, long before they run for office.

    http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/romney-failed-disclose-swiss-bank-account-income/story?id=15447680

  101. Anon E. Moose says:

    Anyone looking for a luxe full-floor condo on teh Upper East Side? This address will get you some seriouos cred with the bleacher creatures.

    http://ny.curbed.com/tags/jorge-posada

  102. Double Down says:

    Where’s the calculator to figure how long it takes to match what Romney donated to charity?

  103. grim says:

    108 – House porn

  104. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [106] juice,

    Nope, still nothing. The interest would still be on the tax form.

    As for the practices you find so objectionable, get a law passed. Until then, there is no obligation to disclose, and your position becomes about something other than law and qualifications.

  105. PGtips says:

    November Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 3.2% Decline from One Year Ago

    Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted, NSA) will decline by 3.2 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will show a year-over-year decline of 2.7 percent. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from October to November will be -0.2 percent and -0.1 percent for the 20 and 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA), respectively.

    http://www.zillow.com/blog/research/2012/01/24/zillow-forecast-november-case-shiller-composite-20-expected-to-show-3-2-decline-from-one-year-ago/

  106. PGtips says:

    Home Prices Declined at an Accelerating Rate in November as Sales Increased

    The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for November 2011 will decline again on a month-over-month basis.

    This month, we expect the November 2011 10-City composite index to be about 152 and the 20-City index to be roughly 138.

    http://www.radarlogic.com/

  107. PGtips says:

    This spring season is poised to be a bloodbath. Stable prices hahahahaha. Like property taxes and bubble prices mean nothing. Remember the NY area is still 60% above 2000.

  108. “Bloodbath” implies action. This is Chinese water torture.

  109. Outofstater says:

    Totally OT and you may have seen it before but Boston College put out a report in Nov listing the drop dead dates for various public pension funds.

    http://crr.bc.edu/images/stories/Briefs/slp_23_508.pdf

  110. freedy says:

    Overheard a conversation today. “Now is a great time to buy a house ” Hurry,call your
    local realtor today. And don’t forget to ask “what are the taxes on this beauty”

  111. Outofstater says:

    Scroll down to Appendix B. Unless you want to fall asleep reading the whole thing.

  112. A.West says:

    Re Greenbrook,
    If it’s for commuting into NYC, might as well do Scotch Plains instead, closer on the Raritan line. Greenbrook people north of 22 like to think they’re in Warren, and do get to share a school after middle school. South of 22 looks like crap, it’s where all of the government people are that are taxing the people up the hill. We made an offer on a place in Greenbrook a couple years back, main problem was the 24k/yr tax bill. They said they wouldn’t accept our low offer, because the house had a view, we answered that the town’s taxes already extracted that value out of the house, sorry, we cannot pay both you and the town for that feature. The person who used to be named S*stry, missing an a, lives in Green Brook, could offer more insight.

    I don’t commute to NYC any more, so got a better house at a lower price and taxes in Bridgewater.

  113. A.West says:

    Re income taxes & JJ’s perspective on income.
    Obama was such an idiot to say that the secretary “pays more taxes” than Buffett. Last I heard tens or hundreds of millions is more than tens of thousands.
    JJ is right 300k to 500k isn’t as much as it sounds, people making this much typically have the fewest tax breaks. After tax is $175 to $300k. Around here you will end up paying 40% of it to various government taxes and schemes. People making this much typically spend at least $100k/yr, relatives all want some help (not tax deductible), so after taxes it’s hard to save more than about $100k/yr. With no interest, probably no pension plan, it’s hard to compound the savings. And it’s not as if this level of income is guaranteed every year – these are probably peak earnings years, high bonus years, etc. No, it’s not a hard life if you’re sane with spending, but it takes at least 5 yrs at those levels to save a million, and in NJ a million will only buy a POS cape in Milburn with a $20k/yr tax bill that people in FL would assume is worth about $100k.

  114. Juice Box says:

    I miss the freshies where is the snow!

  115. Feh. Every house has a view. Of something.

  116. Fabius Maximus says:

    #106 Juice

    This will run like the Energizer Bunny. Expect it to go like this. The question will be asked if this account was on the list UBS passed to the gvmt. Next did this account or any other holding have to go through the Offshore Voluntary Disclosure Program in 2009 or any other year. If it did, he is political toast. Then the call will be for the 2004 return to show the interest on the same UBS account had tax paid. If that comes out, the 2004 return gets compared to 2010 to see what was treated with OxyClean.

    One wrong answer and he is toast if he is not already.

  117. joyce says:

    I’m turning the debate off now (I dk why I keep watching this nonsense).

    Newt makes it sound like there’s a meaningful distinction between “permanent resident” and “citizen” … is there?

  118. AG says:

    My property taxes went up 50% last year. I hired a lawyer for 300 bucks. Knocked my assessment down by 100k without even having to goto court. Saved me 2k a year. If my taxes go up by 1 dollar next year I will hire the same guy again.

    Plenty of value in the properties out there. The problem is the tax bill. All the moron home sellers should appeal their taxes first then worry about selling their circe 76 sh_tbox.

  119. AG says:

    Renters sitting on Federal Reserve Notes better be careful.

    The lastest from John Williams,

    “As usual, John Williams of ShadowStats.com tells us how it really is.

    – U.S. Hyperinflationary Great Depression Moves Ever Closer
    – U.S. Government and the Federal Reserve Effectively Have Destroyed Global Confidence in the U.S. Dollar
    – Systemic-Solvency and Economic Crises Have Not Abated
    – Precursors to Ultimate Dollar Disaster Are in Place; 2014 Remains the Outside Timing for Same”

  120. chicagofinance says:

    Does every house have a stench?

    There Went Meat says:
    January 26, 2012 at 7:56 pm
    Feh. Every house has a view. Of something.

  121. Bystander says:

    AG,

    Do you really believe that hyperinflation would hurt renters first? Seriously a home purchase would be the least of our problems. Proportion are barely scraping by now. Imagine if bread went to 10 a loaf.

  122. Bystander says:

    People not proportion. damn Droid

  123. yo says:

    None,except for one thing.A permanent resident can not vote.

    joyce says:
    January 26, 2012 at 8:14 pm
    I’m turning the debate off now (I dk why I keep watching this nonsense).

    Newt makes it sound like there’s a meaningful distinction between “permanent resident” and “citizen” … is there?

  124. Confused in NJ says:

    BOSTON (Reuters) – Barney Frank, the 16-term congressman from Massachusetts who was one of the first openly gay figures in U.S. national politics, plans to marry his partner, his office said on Thursday.

    Frank, 71, will marry Jim Ready in a ceremony in Massachusetts, capping a nearly five-year relationship. Ready, 42, lives in Maine, where he has a small handyman business and practices photography, Frank’s office said.

    No other details on the date or location of the wedding were released.

  125. SX says:

    20. Some People think that $200-300k is a lot of money, until their accountant explains the AMT.

  126. SX says:

    131. Chris Dodd will give away the bride.

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