March MLS Snapshot

(Source GSMLS, except Bergen which is NJMLS)

Pending Home Sales (Contracts)
——————————-

Bergen County
March 2011 – 709
March 2012 – 815 (Up 15% YOY)

Essex County
March 2011 – 327
March 2012 – 452 (Up 38% YOY)

Hunterdon County
March 2011 – 97
March 2012 – 117 (Up 21% YOY)

Morris County
March 2011 – 371
March 2012 – 513 (Up 38% YOY)

Passaic County
March 2011 – 196
March 2012 – 264 (Up 35% YOY)

Somerset County
March 2011 – 277
March 2012 – 307 (Up 11% YOY)

Sussex County
March 2011 – 116
March 2012 – 123 (Up 6% YOY)

Union County
March 2011 – 318
March 2012 – 385 (Up 21% YOY)

Warren County
March 2011 – 76
March 2012 – 106 (Up 39% YOY)

Closed Home Sales
——————-
(Count (Average Sale Price) – SP/LP – Avg DOM)

Bergen County
March 2011 – 370 ($475,818) – 89 – 107
March 2012 – 463 ($471,699) – 88 – 129

Essex County
March 2011 – 212 ($422,154) – 95 – 117
March 2012 – 197 ($411,353) – 94 – 119

Hunterdon County
March 2011 – 87 ($359,476) – 94 – 119
March 2012 – 72 ($357,619) – 94 – 128

Morris County
March 2011 – 298 ($458,587) – 94 – 109
March 2012 – 247 ($428,770) – 95 – 111

Passaic County
March 2011 – 150 ($297,234) – 95 – 113
March 2012 – 145 ($284,978) – 94 – 134

Somerset County
March 2011 – 178 ($397,976) – 95 – 109
March 2012 – 181 ($435,442) – 96 – 105

Sussex County
March 2011 – 68 ($231,470) – 92 – 151
March 2012 – 97 ($235,336) – 95 – 124

Union County
March 2011 – 220 ($371,532) – 98 – 111
March 2012 – 192 ($362,778) – 95 – 120

Warren County
March 2011 – 48 ($192,773) – 92 – 149
March 2012 – 42 ($186,405) – 93 – 126

This entry was posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

147 Responses to March MLS Snapshot

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. grim says:

    Mike – What’s up with Sussex? Year over year increase in Volume *AND* Price?

  3. grim says:

    As well as a pretty strong improvement in the list/sale price ratio (an indicator of either pricing strength or correctness), as well as days on market. Sussex leading the charge.

  4. grim says:

    Gary – Pay close attention to the Bergen sale stats, look at that list/sale price ratio, it’s among the lowest anywhere, and it traditionally has been.

    Houses, on average, are selling for 88% of ask in Bergen. Keep that in mind when you are looking at the asks. Especially since mid 90s is much more the norm in the rest of Northern NJ.

  5. grim says:

    Big movers out in Sussex are Byram/Sparta and Hopatcong, strong price and volume increases. Vernon saw a good upward move in volume, but on lower prices (along with some others that actually dragged the average down).

    Byram Sales
    March 2011 – 4 ($238,725)
    March 2012 – 9 ($277,833)

    Hopatcong Sales
    March 2011 – 7 ($196,979)
    March 2012 – 11 ($201,705)

    Sparta Sales
    March 2011 – 12 ($324,375)
    March 2012 – 15 ($417,460)

  6. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Grim 2 as far as price up just a bit I would venture due to the overall small number that few higher price ones selling skews the avg. Sales well there are deals abound, 3 bd ranch a little smaller than yours basement already done asking 120, nice neighborhood . For 3o0 k you can get a real nice house in the old orchard section. As I posted a few days ago I have been going out looking . For me it is more a case of stage of life holding me back and I just do not want to pay the taxes. I know I pay them anyway but I can vote with my feet at any time. I am however aware of more than a few foreclosures that are going to hit the area, my take is one more hit about 18 months for this to flesh-out with a little more downward pressure. Then we just drag along the bottom.

  7. grim says:

    Somerset also showing good performance from the closed sales side, showing increased average SP on slightly higher volume.

  8. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Bergen County has the lowest SP/LP? How can that be? Those nice white people are too smart to list their house too high above market value;-)

  9. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Grim 5 look at the map, Byram/Sparta and Hopatcong are right on or close to Rte 80, they are not up & over the hills of Sussex . After Sparta it gets to be a bit*h to get to civilization. Now treat them as part of Morris because topographically they are and run the numbers for Sussex county once you get up the mountain you will find a different story.

  10. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    grim – Do you have Glen Rock and Ridgewood sales handy?

  11. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Mike [9] – Exactly right.

  12. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Grim as you said this is what I am talking about in my post 9, “Vernon saw a good upward move in volume, but on lower prices (along with some others that actually dragged the average down)”

  13. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I’d hazard a guess that the apparent price up-tick in Somerset is a mix-shift mirage. Lots of long-time boomer owners getting out of Dodge with the equity they have left and getting out from under their $20K+ tax bills. Never a better time to see a lot of big houses in nice shape for sale. I wouldn’t buy, but if you’d just like to get inside and look around…

  14. grim says:

    Glen Rock Contracts
    March 2011 – 20
    March 2012 – 23

    Glen Rock Sales
    March 2011 – 6 ($573,708)
    March 2012 – 2 ($597,750)

    Ridgewood Contracts
    March 2011 – 26
    March 2012 – 43 (65% YOY Increase)

    Ridgewood Sales
    March 2011 – 7 ($789,214)
    March 2012 – 15 ($706,467)

  15. grim says:

    13 – A little bit on both ends actually, big movers were Franklin and Bernards Twp.

    Franklin Sales
    March 2011 – 33 ($255,829)
    March 2012 – 37 ($323,809)

    Bernards Sales
    March 2011 – 25 ($543,468)
    March 2012 – 29 ($728,648)

  16. grim says:

    While spring inventory is starting to hit the market, anyone that has been out looking knows that inventory of good housing stock is down, regardless of pricing.

    Essex Inventory
    March 2011 – 4073 ($415,406)
    March 2012 – 3505 ($429,825)

    Morris Inventory
    March 2011 – 4323 ($549,157)
    March 2012 – 3975 ($557,961)

    Passaic Inventory
    March 2011 – 2795 ($325,314)
    March 2012 – 2692 ($330,257)

    Somerset Inventory
    March 2011 – 2893 ($552,565)
    March 2012 – 2786 ($579,370)

    Sussex Inventory
    March 2011 – 2377 ($303,091)
    March 2012 – 2088 ($304,875)

    Union Inventory
    March 2011 – 3587 ($347,384)
    March 2012 – 3225 ($367,880)

    Warren Inventory
    March 2011 – 1259 ($269,581)
    March 2012 – 1143 ($272,350)

  17. grim says:

    Even more interesting, is this seems to jive almost perfectly with the trend Zillow just recently mentioned about increased asking prices this Spring.

    We’ve got an across the board increase in average ask on decreased volume.

  18. freedy says:

    Skilled-Worker Visas See a Surge in Demand

    Gary this ones for you

  19. This should end well. Smoke ’em if you got ’em.

    “We’ve got an across the board increase in average ask on decreased volume.”

  20. Wake me when we “unexpectedly” resume the Great Depression II.

  21. Brian says:

    Isn’t there a ton of new small condos that were built in Vernon in the last few years? Wouldn’t those smaller homes bring the average price down? I see hundreds of new condos built in the last few years across from the Cava winery on Route 94. Is that Hamburg, Hardyston, or Vernon?

    Also, there’s some new townhomes/condos in the mountain creek area. People buy the condos, enter the rental program and even buy the furniture from the hotel etc. Maybe there’s just more turnover of people purchasing these vacation rentals. That might drive the average down there in Vernon.

  22. grim says:

    For a second I thought about an alternative theory where the lower priced homes were all bought up, leaving the overpriced inventory to stagnate, but clearly not the case. Looking at a couple counties, listings added in March 2012 are coming to market with a higher ask than 2011. Caveat here is I have no quick way to look at the mix of stock to determine if similar homes are being priced higher, or we’ve got a higher proportion of more expensive homes hitting the market.

  23. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Brain 22 No they would not bring down avg price those are in Crystal Springs (the high end up here) not that small or cheap , town homes & singles in complex are also being built and are much more expensive than a single family home in Vernon. You could get a nice place in Vernon for 40% less.
    PS that is Hardyston not Vernon.

  24. grim says:

    Brian – Many times new construction/development doesn’t hit the MLS as all sales are handled by the developers agents. Usually the first glimpse we see is a teaser listing (almost like a sample or example) or the first resales.

  25. 3B says:

    #14 grim: Any numbers on Hillsdale? Thanks in advance.

  26. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Brain this is the cheapest one I could find, short sale.
    LOWEST PRICE IN CRYSTAL! short sale subject to third party approval. Gorgeous 3 bedroom 2 bath condo, one car garage, 2 decks. WONT LAST!
    $ 189,900
    Status: Active
    County: Sussex
    Cities/Towns: Hardyston Twp.
    Style: Development Home
    FHA 55+: No
    Zone/Comp: residential
    Rooms: 6
    Bedrooms: 3
    Full Baths: 2
    Half Baths: 0
    Total Baths: 2.0
    Acreage: 0.01
    Sq Ft: 1500
    Association fee: $ 185
    Garage/Desc 1/ Attached Garage, Built-In Garage
    Heat Source: Gas-Natural
    Water: Public Water, Water Charge Extra
    Sewer: Public Sewer, Sewer Charge Extra
    Utilities: All Underground
    Services:
    Grade School: HARDYSTON
    Middle School: HARDYSTON
    High School: WALLKILL
    Tax Amount: $ 4,750
    Tax Year: 2010
    Tax Rate: 2.15
    Tax Rate Year: 2010
    Land Assessment: $ 70,000
    Building Assessment: $ 158,900
    Total Assessment: $ 228,900

  27. gary says:

    grim [4],

    Thank you!! Fabulous analysis as always!!

  28. gary says:

    freedy [18],

    They still have zero soft skills that they can’t develop. Me? I can pick up a Linux book or google the sh1t and learn it on the fly. Who do you think is going to sit with a Senior VP and explain a system issue in business terms or construct an email that is spot on and can be circulated? F*ck em.

  29. gary says:

    grim,

    Why do you think the SP/LP ratio in Bergen is 88% as opposed to mid 90s for the rest of North Jersey?

  30. jcer says:

    gary, it should read, visa surge because companies don’t want to pay developers well and they are for the most part exploring greener pastures. What is being done with visas in IT is nothing short of criminal, I used to work at a place where they laid off tons of quality people and then filed for H1-b visas for the jobs they eliminated. In what universe is that sensible, I thought these visas were for when they could not fill the job domestically?

  31. chicagofinance says:

    JIBE not jive…..obviously not Ivy League

    grim says:
    April 10, 2012 at 7:45 am
    Even more interesting, is this seems to jive almost perfectly

  32. Zack says:

    #31

    The profit margin on placing H1B candidates in quite high (somewhere around 30%)
    When you are living in a capitalistic country, these things can be expected. Capiatlism wings both ways..

  33. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Chi fi 32 skutch.

  34. Brian says:

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3069943219-5-Pine-Cres-12-12-Vernon-NJ-07462
    $94,900

    http://new.gsmls.com/publicsite/propsearch.do?method=moredetails&sysid=2881853
    $49,900

    It looks like construction on a lot of the condos were completed right at the peak of the bubble. I just thought maybe there might be more turnover of product like this recently. It’s just a theory but, if a lot of people bought these at the peak, they might be forclosures now or people selling more of them to cut their losses. I think it’s possible that would bring average sale price down.

  35. jcer says:

    Zack, my point was that specifically H1-b is when the job cannot be filled domestically. I have no problem with it but to layoff perfectly viable people because you want to offer the job with a salary 30k less than the person who was doing the job before, is against the intentions of the program and if it is not illegal, it should be.

  36. Brian says:

    Sorry, link for the second condo I posted not working. Try this:

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3025132605-2-Chamonix-Dr-517-Vernon-NJ-07462

  37. grim says:

    I prefer the bush league

  38. freedy says:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/print/446143

    Next time your wondering how all those new cars are being sold. If you have a 520 credit score Ally can get you into the car of your dreams. Loaded

  39. gary says:

    Hey Zack,

    I can’t buy the products in services, finance, insurance and manufacturing because the pay is 55% of what it used to be both in salary and benefits. Capitalism works when we have a viable middle class. I love capitalism but the corporations turned into wh0res. The U.S. is not needed any longer as growth and profits are now coming from emerging markets.

  40. Zack says:

    The biggest sponsors of the H1B visa are big tech. Microsoft,Cisco etc..
    There are 65,000 slots given out every year and they get filled up within the first day.
    You can consider 65,000 lost jobs because of this every year, but this is small compared to total tech jobs created in the year. Next we have L1 and B1 visa, agin in some shape or form takes away jobs from the American worker. Programmers are dime a dozen in India and why get an american worker when you can get them overseas for cheap. You just get an american worker to manage them and for the soft skills (presentations, meetings etc) while the programming is done overseas. This seems quite logical if I was running a company, but being a worker in the Industry, I understand this can be a cause of frustration/anger. But what I have learnt is to swim with the tide instaed of fighting it and make hay while the sun still shines.

    jcer says:
    April 10, 2012 at 9:32 am
    Zack, my point was that specifically H1-b is when the job cannot be filled domestically. I have no problem with it but to layoff perfectly viable people because you want to offer the job with a salary 30k less than the person who was doing the job before, is against the intentions of the program and if it is not illegal, it should be.

  41. Anon E. Moose says:

    Fabius [40];

    Another great piece by Matt Taibbi

    That’s going to be Exhibit A before St. Peter… More Kool Aid?

  42. jcer says:

    To quote myself, you get the employee you pay for and deserve. Most technology is supremely messed up in large IT orgs, trying to cut corners on your technologists is penny wise pound foolish. FYI, 75% of those so called programmers in India are anything but. There is a small percentage that is very good and smart but a large percentage that is totally and utterly clueless. I had the privileged at my previous employer of managing some offshore developers, what a waste of time, the H1b onshore guys were much better mostly but the offshore guys would have been let go in 3 months if they were working onshore. I was getting better productivity out of a kid a year out of college than 4 offshore resources. I’d manage developers again but never with a total offshore model. Don’t get me wrong it is a necessary evil, but it is over used and used for things where onshore development would work much better.

  43. gary says:

    But what I have learnt is to swim with the tide instaed of fighting it and make hay while the sun still shines.

    I’d rather swim against the tide.

  44. gary says:

    Help me here: there’s an economic term for when an industry and/or corporation continually cuts in attempt to keep the revenue/profit margin above the benchmark. It’s a self-eating defeating strategy. What’s this term or model called?

  45. seif says:

    thought i’d share this:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/2012/feb/01/top-five-regrets-of-the-dying

    (to keep it light)

    #6 “I wish I had sold all of my RE holdings before 2007”

  46. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Brain 35/37 , first one in Black Creek, never finished owners now suing ,taxes insane.
    Second , hotel room people buy to supposedly make money on. Check out Appalachian Hotel (white elephant), people bought in there to rent took a bath , they also rent out in Black Creek so it is not a good place to live with a family. They have 3 bds there also, can’t give them away with taxes& HOA fee.

  47. Anon E. Moose says:

    Mike [48];

    They have 3 bds there also, can’t give them away with taxes& HOA fee.

    Well, if you buy one of those $1 timeshares, you have fees as well but only get 1 week out of the year. Maybe they’ve finally found their market-clearing price? ;-)

  48. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Well seif have # 6 covered.

  49. seif says:

    me too.

  50. seif says:

    actually, not true…i sold in NYC in 2009.

  51. Libtard in Union says:

    “What’s this term or model called?”

    Milking?

  52. Bocephus says:

    I want a place where i can live that has the lowest ratio of stupid people and the highest percentage of partiers.

  53. Bocephus says:

    SoHo perhaps.

  54. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Moose north of 10 k taxes for the 3bds there, with common walls unfinished amenities & over night guest sent over by hotel across the road. Then you have the herd of skiers in the winter , yea I want to live there.

  55. Bocephus says:

    Or ChiFi’s Bung Hole.

  56. chicagofinance says:

    chicagofinance says:
    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    April 10, 2012 at 10:41 am
    max: I am supposed to take your opinion seriously when the article starts with this paragraph. I will read the rest of it, but just to state clearly that this diatribe is typical of the left’s close minded hypocrisy……Limbaugh does the equivalent and what happens?
    Fabius Maximus says:
    April 10, 2012 at 9:48 am
    Another great piece by Matt Taibbi

    Paul Ryan, the Republican Party’s latest entrant in the seemingly endless series of young, pr!ckish, over-coiffed, an-l-retentive deficit Robespierres they’ve sent to the political center stage in the last decade or so, has come out with his new budget plan. All of these smug little jerks look alike to me – from Ralph Reed to Eric Cantor to Jeb Hensarling to Rand Paul and now to Ryan, they all look like overgrown kids who got n!pple-twisted in the halls in high school, worked as Applebee’s shift managers in college, and are now taking revenge on the world as grownups by defunding hospice care and student loans and Sesame Street. They all look like they sleep with their ties on, and keep their feet in dress socks when doing their bi-monthly duty with their wives.

  57. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Bocephus 54 forget Jersey, elitist!

  58. chicagofinance says:

    Dude: it was a joke…..

    Bocephus says:
    April 10, 2012 at 10:41 am
    Or ChiFi’s Bung Hole.

  59. Libtard in Union says:

    Chi…no mention of the Mets? Was there last night and heading to tonight’s game as well. They are a fun team. I hope their hitting and relief pitching lasts more than a week. :P

  60. seif says:

    “they all look like overgrown kids who got n!pple-twisted in the halls in high school, worked as Applebee’s shift managers in college, and are now taking revenge on the world as grownups by defunding hospice care and student loans and Sesame Street. They all look like they sleep with their ties on, and keep their feet in dress socks when doing their bi-monthly duty with their wives.”

    NAILED IT!

    Limbaugh does the equivalent? that’s quite a stretch

  61. chicagofinance says:

    Taibbi is either lying or is willfully ignorant. Government spent trillions on Wall Street, but is was paid back. We can argue if it was a good use of funds, but the comment is factually incorrect. The unpaid bailouts are in the auto industry, which helped the unions. To be clear, the problem is without question entitlement spending, and everything else is window dressing. To suggest otherwise is completely disingenuous. Case closed.

    The last ten years or so have seen the government send massive amounts of money to people in the top tax brackets, mainly through two methods: huge tax cuts, and financial bailouts. The government has spent trillions of our national treasure bailing out Wall Street, which has resulted directly in enormous, record profit numbers – nearly $100 billion in the last three years (and that doesn’t even count the tens of billions more in inflated compensation and bonuses that came more or less directly from government aid). Add to that the $700 billion or so the Obama tax cuts added to the national debt over the next two years, and we’re looking at a trillion dollars of lost revenue in just a few years.

    You push a policy like that in the middle of a shaky economy, of course we’re going to have debt problems. But the issue is being presented as if the debt comes entirely from growth in entitlement spending. It’s bad enough that middle-class taxpayers have been forced in the last few years to subsidize the vacations and beach houses of the idiots who caused the financial crisis, and it’s doubly insulting that they’re now being blamed for the budget mess.

  62. zack (42)-

    Why should any Amerikan kid take out loans, bust his ass in skool, etc. to enter a profession where global wage arbitrage is the norm and he can expect a career-long and permanent descent into poverty?

    Seems like programming is the 21st century’s version of the garment sweatshop.

  63. Only advice I gave my daughter was to stay as far away from computers/programming as possible in culledge.

  64. chicagofinance says:

    also, I don’t get a sh!t who Ryan is, but anyone who talks about cutting entitlement spending has a political death wish, so it that sense, it is courageous……two things about old people in this country……they vote and there are a sh!tload of them….

  65. mikey (56)-

    They should turn those crapshacks into prisons.

  66. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Chi 58 it is OK when the left does it don’t you know. They all su*k but what is good for the goose is good for the gander. Where is the outrage at these personal disparaging adolescent attacks , in my best left-wing MSM commentator voice. Did I forget mean spirited another one right out of the lefty play book, maybe we can work in racially insensitive and homophobic to, nah to weak take the gloves off get out the racist label.

  67. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Meat 67 they are for the owners!

  68. Zack says:

    #64

    Very true..No parent in their right mind should send their kid to college to learn engineering paying hundreds of thousands of dollars where the job can be easily outsourced. If your kid is supersmart (ivy league material) then its a different story..but if he/she is Rutgers material then it does not pay off. You rather send them to India (learn engineering), come to the U.S do your advanced degree and get a decent joba and save a bundle in college costs.

  69. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Meat it was just all the rage and soooo exclusive when they were building and started selling them. Then the sh*t hit the fan.

  70. Everybody across the spectrum from Paul Ryan to Pelosi has the same thing in mind: ram a shank up the arse of the individual.

    No difference in any of these crooks. Line ’em up against a wall and shoot them all between the eyes. And do it on TV.

  71. seif says:

    #66 – “it is courageous”

    you have an interesting idea of courage

  72. chicagofinance says:

    As much as I hate Yankee fans, I savor the thought that they get deprived of the pure joy of a week like this past one…..when the Big Pelf can’t take you down, you know you’re hot! I wish I had the time to see Santana versus Stasburg for $2.50.

    Libtard in Union says:
    April 10, 2012 at 10:45 am
    Chi…no mention of the Mets? Was there last night and heading to tonight’s game as well. They are a fun team. I hope their hitting and relief pitching lasts more than a week. :P

  73. chicagofinance says:

    agreed….

    There Went Meat says:
    April 10, 2012 at 11:02 am
    Everybody across the spectrum from Paul Ryan to Pelosi has the same thing in mind: ram a shank up the arse of the individual.

    No difference in any of these crooks. Line ‘em up against a wall and shoot them all between the eyes. And do it on TV.

  74. Mikeinwaiting says:

    “No difference in any of these crooks. Line ‘em up against a wall and shoot them all between the eyes. And do it on TV.”
    Now you’re talking.

  75. Mikeinwaiting says:

    seif 73 does take a set of balls to go against the biggest voting block.

  76. chicagofinance says:

    Bundle up…..and bring a glove for all the home runs…….

    Libtard in Union says:
    April 10, 2012 at 10:45 am
    Was there last night and heading to tonight’s game as well.

  77. Rethugs/Dumbs/MSM…panderers to different constituencies. That is all.

    Oblivion, dead ahead.

  78. mikey (77)-

    Brave, my ass. He prolly has a nice cushy job already lined up with some lobby shop or think tank.

  79. seif says:

    77 – he’s not saying or going against anything his predecessors haven’t been saying for years. it would be “courageous” for him to cut AGAINST the repub grain. there is nothing courageous about flowing with it.

  80. Whores, the whole scurvy lot of them.

  81. Jill says:

    Green shoots!

    This WT house (Mountain Ave.) has been intermittently on the market for over a year, listed by the same agent. It has never sold, has been put up for rent a couple of times. Why on earth, when the house didn’t sell at $799K, did the agent raise the price by 50K?

    http://www.trulia.com/property/1082505595-Single-Family-Home-Washington-Township-NJ-07676

  82. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Meat 79 “Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!”

  83. joyce says:

    (63)
    chicagofinance:

    The money would not have been paid back if it wasn’t for the countless facilities and programs and 0% interest that the FED showered and continues to shower upon the banksters. Entitlement/welfare spending needs to be eliminated and returned to the states/people (if they choose to have it), but make no mistake- the FED and rest of the banksters IS the main problem. (and let’s not forget the biggest welfare queens, referring to Corporate welfare, with subsidies and special tax code provisions)

  84. joyce says:

    (73)

    seif,

    I don’t know how courageous it is either (cause I wholeheartedly agree with Meat in that they are ALL criminals who deserve to die a traitor’s death)

    But also, it’s not “compassionate” or “charitable” to steal other people’s money and give it away.
    Give me $4 trillion and I’ll be very charitable and noble and give like $3.7 T of it away.

  85. Anon E. Moose says:

    Gary [46];

    Rising market share on declining revenue in one way ‘successful’ businesses implode; it can be characterized as a “Buggy Whip” industry. See Danny DeVito in “Other People’s Money” for a take on Michael Douglas’ Gordon Gecko “Greed is Good” speech to the shareholders.

  86. Brian says:

    Good interview with Robert Shiller on CNN Money. He talks about housing, stocks, bonds, austerity in Europe, etc.

    http://money.cnn.com/2012/04/10/pf/investing-Shiller.moneymag/index.htm

  87. Libtard in Union says:

    Chi…Yes, the pitching matchup tonight is at the complete opposite end of what’s on deck for tomorrow. I heard about the $2.50 tickets yesterday for Santana/Strasberg. For one day only, I wish I was unemployed.

    Yesterday happened to be Taiwanese Heritage Day at Citi Field. What a sh1tshow of strange performances that was. Even worse, there were more Taiwanese on the field doing wacky dances and singing songs in their native tongue than there were even Asians in the stands. In other news, I think they dry cleaned Mr. Met. He looked very shiny and clean.

  88. gary says:

    Moose [87],

    As a “temp” worker, I cannot invest in the financial products for the company where I’m currently working because I have no leverage on my pay scale. It’s whatever they offer; take it or leave it. And what they offer includes a wish, a prayer, fingers and toes crossed and a piece of stale humble pie. There’s one less potential customer.

    I also cannot secure a loan for a house despite the fact that I can put substantially more than 20% down or that my FICO and assets are stellar because “temp” workers are not acceptable to a lender. There’s another loss of a potential customer.

    This also means I cannot buy a new stove, a lighting fixture or a lawn chair because I don’t have a new house and there’s no need to buy for the current house. Or, perhaps for those that rent, it doesn’t apply. There’s a loss for company number 3.

    I think everyone gets the point; keep slicing and denying an outlet for growth. Eventually, nothing and nobody will be left and we’ll all hovel together like a third world toilet just existing with no ladder in sight.

  89. gary says:

    On a positive note, this past Easter Sunday was great. Food and family, the Knicks over the Bulls in overtime, the Masters were masterful and the Mets made us smile.

  90. chicagofinance says:

    But the fact that the money was paid back is irrelevant? What about the money given to the auto companies? cash for clunkers? extended unemployment? and the propping up of the real estate market? all that stuff is flushed down the toilet forever, never to return….and the gift in return is no jobs and no energy policy……and the recurring theme of this website is personal responsibility. Yes, the banks are pure scum, but it is not only about the banks……

    joyce says:
    April 10, 2012 at 11:24 am
    (63) chicagofinance:The money would not have been paid back if it wasn’t for the countless facilities and programs and 0% interest that the FED showered and continues to shower upon the banksters. Entitlement/welfare spending needs to be eliminated and returned to the states/people (if they choose to have it), but make no mistake- the FED and rest of the banksters IS the main problem. (and let’s not forget the biggest welfare queens, referring to Corporate welfare, with subsidies and special tax code provisions)

  91. chicagofinance says:

    joyce: another thing to be clear……don’t just kill corporations becuase it is convenient. New Jersey is in trouble for exactly the mentality that you are espousing here…..corporations are going to create the jobs in NJ to lead us out of this mess. If the attitude is that they are the problem, then the population of well paid white collar workers are never going to return here…..and if they don’t come back, we are certainly dead…..

  92. joyce says:

    Yes, it is irrelevant. It was the wrong decision then and still is. The economy would be leaps and bounds ahead of where it is now if we had let the system liquidate the bad debt rather than papering over it. Naming a laundry list of other failed, stupid, and unconstitutional programs does not justify another.

    I’ll try to find a link for you, but AIG and one of the big banks partially repaid the US Treasury by selling some of its “assets” to the NY FED. Sound like a circle j_rk to you? Definitely not and “arms length” transaction, lol.
    What about the Maiden Lane entities that Bernanke and Co. created? (I’ll admit I’m not an expert on them) I believe they ridded Bear Stearns and AIG of worthless assets; where did the money for those entities come from? Loans from the NY FED.

  93. joyce says:

    93

    When did I kill corporations?

  94. AG says:

    Dow down another 153. The world is waiting for Bernanke to fill the punch bowl.

  95. Bocephus says:

    93. Pharma is shrinking radically and our efforts to recruit new firms into the state are laughable.

  96. AG says:

    Whether we like it or not. We are going back to raising chickens and growing vegetables.

  97. Juice Box says:

    re # 63 – Chi – “willfully ignorant?

    Back when you used to wear black eyeliner and chased Goth Chicks at Depeshe Mode concerts you probably would have eaten up anything written in Rolling Stone or the Village Voice. Taibbi writes for his audience which is no longer you.

    As far as “paid back”

    So far 130 bailed out institutions paid back their TARP money simply by taking out loans from yet another government program.

    The Fed still has nearly a 3 trillion dollar Balance sheet, of which a Trillion or so is perhaps junk MBS that used to be on the Primary Dealers balance sheets. Remember the plans to drain liquidity via Reverse Repos? Apparently they have only drained a few hundred million in two tests since last year.

    Housing/ABS/MBS bailout is far from over, Fed is still active and there will be years more of this after all we have something like 10 Trillion in underwater mortgages.
    If the MoveON crowd gets the O man to fire Ed DeMarco we could see a nice little bailout of up to 3 trillion for the underwater zombie homeowners.

  98. jcer says:

    Yes joyce it has not been paid back in full, many, many things have been given to the banks to keep the system functioning make no mistake without the bailouts of now defunct entities companies like GS might not be with us today. The problem remains that we need a functioning financial system and financial markets, suffice it to say the way regulation occurs in the US older, larger, well capitalized companies are really the only option. It is nearly impossible for smaller upstart to get into banking, even though banks are operationally dysfunctional. But as chifi is saying banks are not the only problem, every sector is cutting, and the American worker is the hardest hit.

    The only conclusion that can be drawn from the past crisis is that the public corporation is an inherently bad structure in most cases. Unless the CEO et al have a real interest in ensuring a legacy, etc it devolves into vampires sucking the corpse dry. Most public companies are run to show growth/profits/increased share prices for 5-7yrs and then it is someone else’s problem. Private companies do not operate like this in most cases and as a result of the people running the org have their fortune tied to it and are likely to make better long term choices.

  99. Brian says:

    That’s actually a good way to save on property taxes.

    Anyway, I’m already surrounded by farms.

    98.AG says:
    April 10, 2012 at 12:46 pm
    Whether we like it or not. We are going back to raising chickens and growing vegetables.

  100. seif says:

    when is it going to hit Bergen County?

    http://news.yahoo.com/americans-brace-next-foreclosure-wave-210253440.html

    “We are right back where we were two years ago. I would put money on 2012 being a bigger year for foreclosures than 2010,” said Mark Seifert, executive director of Empowering & Strengthening Ohio’s People (ESOP), a counseling group with 10 offices in Ohio.

    “Last year was an anomaly, and not in a good way,” he said.
    In 2011, the “robo-signing” scandal, in which foreclosure documents were signed without properly reviewing individual cases, prompted banks to hold back on new foreclosures pending a settlement.

  101. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Back in Jersey.

    Feh.

  102. joyce says:

    (100)
    jcer,

    I agree very much with a lot of what you said. I especially agree with, “The problem remains that we need a functioning financial system and financial markets…” But you cannot with a straightface call what we have now as a result of all the bailouts, ZIRP, ad nauseum, a ‘functioning system.’ Functioning for whom? Or for whose sole benefit? (and it wasn’t working that great prior to 2008 either)

    I do not agree with your premise that “larger, older… companies” are the only way to go. If they are, you kind of answered your question with the beginning of that sentence. It’s not that they are the only way to go, it’s the rigged system that makes them seem like a more favorable option (“the way regulation occurs in the US” … then let’s change that)

    Calling them “well capitalized” is laughable. The only reason they are barely capitalized is from the gigantic backstop by the FED/US Govt.

    Your 2nd paragraph is spot on.

  103. chicagofinance says:

    joyce says:
    April 10, 2012 at 12:33 pm
    93 When did I kill corporations?

    joyce says:
    April 10, 2012 at 11:24 am
    (and let’s not forget the biggest welfare queens, referring to Corporate welfare, with subsidies and special tax code provisions)

  104. chicagofinance says:

    joyce: They are well capitalized. Not for a good reason, but they are. When they were in trouble, the government backstop allowed them to issue tons on equity to raise cash, and the time bought for the last 3 years has allowed them to refund a lot of higher coupon stuff and short-term stuff, into longer term and low rate obligations.

    joyce says:
    April 10, 2012 at 1:09 pm
    Calling them “well capitalized” is laughable. The only reason they are barely capitalized is from the gigantic backstop by the FED/US Govt.

  105. chicagofinance says:

    joyce: no….do you understand how bad it would have been? Basically the entire country would have shut down. No one would have had a paycheck. Total chaos. Much worse than Greece……

    joyce says:
    April 10, 2012 at 12:32 pm
    Yes, it is irrelevant. It was the wrong decision then and still is. The economy would be leaps and bounds ahead of where it is now if we had let the system liquidate the bad debt rather than papering over it. Naming a laundry list of other failed, stupid, and unconstitutional programs does not justify another.

  106. chicagofinance says:

    joyce: What do you think is the genesis behind the “own physical” movement and storing it in places other than bank vaults?

  107. chicagofinance says:

    juice: fine, but I was reacting to this……and Max is older than me….

    Fabius Maximus says:
    April 10, 2012 at 9:48 am
    Another great piece by Matt Taibbi

    Juice Box says:
    April 10, 2012 at 12:51 pm
    re # 63 – Chi – “willfully ignorant?
    Back when you used to wear black eyeliner and chased Goth Chicks at Depeshe Mode concerts you probably would have eaten up anything written in Rolling Stone or the Village Voice. Taibbi writes for his audience which is no longer you.

  108. All Hype says:

    “The world is waiting for Bernanke to fill the punch bowl.”

    Japan and China passed on the money printing and the EU is a total mess. All eyes are on Uncle Ben. Funny how bad the markets can turn when there is a hint of no further interventions. Of course Ben will print it is just a matter of when.

  109. Juice Box says:

    re #108 – Chi the genesis? How about MF Global? How does a gold or silver bar stashed in a vault instantly shrink in size by more than 25%.

  110. joyce says:

    (105)
    chicago,

    Being against and unlevel playing field is killing corporations? Not only big vs small, but from one company to the next. If some firm can’t exist without a subsidy, then why should it exist at all? That logic works well for “green companies”, right? (I’m am wholeheartedly against them as long as they get handout after handout)

    You railed against entitlement spending. I railed against it as well, and through in corporate welfare. Am I wrong to be against all forms of welfare?

  111. joyce says:

    (107)
    How could you know that?

  112. Libtard in Union says:

    Nom…How was the trip? Hawaii right?

  113. joyce says:

    (107)
    And there would have been tanks in the streets, too?

  114. jcer says:

    joyce my point is exactly that, unless something seriously changes the barriers to entry are so high new banking entities appearing is very unlikely. By barriers to entry I mean to interface with our existing financial system, the technology needed, the regulatory hoops and processes, et al. You also should cede the point to chi, the banking system is functioning, I can use banking services and get financing if need be, it is not healthy, that is entirely different than non-functioning. I think we can find one pivotal moment that started this and it was the repeal of glass stegall. Which our political wizards haven’t put back yet, so much for dodd frank. Overarching regulation is not the answer, but rather separating the entities so there is more transparency and the operational aspect, culture, etc is appropriate for the entities as well as reducing the quadrillion opportunities for conflict of interest. In certain industries the barriers could be reduced, public investment banks could be dissuaded as they were the powder keg that set all of this in motion by making unreasonable regulation only apply to them, so not all is lost but we need sanity and the answer is accountability. If not for the tbtf banks the system would have reached it’s breaking point sooner and would have purged itself more effectively.

  115. Peppermint Pete says:

    Anyone able to, please post stats for Branchburg (Somerset County) – (such as yr-over-yr stats for contracts, closes, inventory, SP/LP, AVG SP, Avg DOM).

  116. Juice Box says:

    Break out the magic underwear!

  117. seif says:

    and shake up the Etch-A-Sketch!

  118. Brian says:

    Robert Shiller: Financial Capitalism Is “Taking Over the World”…and That’s a Good Thing

    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/robert-shiller-financial-capitalism-taking-over-world-good-130531139.html

  119. joyce says:

    (116)
    jcer,

    It may be functioning but only if you define ‘functioning’ in a certain way.
    How is the financial system functioning for savers?

  120. chicagofinance says:

    joyce says:
    April 10, 2012 at 1:46 pm
    (107)
    How could you know that?

    Look at the amount of cash…..the banks are liquid enough…to your point, the unknown is whether they are solvent in the short-run. Every day that passes essentially takes more and more risk off the table. 2008 was a liquidity and solvency event. The part of it that was illiquidity was the part that was going to take down the country and is no longer an issue for the reasons you stated.

  121. chicagofinance says:

    If you are saving money you are doing quite well. A lot of people are focused on paying down their debt. Savers have everyone by the tight and curleys…..

    joyce says:
    April 10, 2012 at 3:35 pm
    (116) jcer, It may be functioning but only if you define ‘functioning’ in a certain way.
    How is the financial system functioning for savers?

  122. chicagofinance says:

    joyce says:
    April 10, 2012 at 1:45 pm
    Am I wrong to be against all forms of welfare?

    Philosophically I agree, but we have an imbalance in regulation across sovereigns and markets. We are competing with other countries that are providing massive welfare, protectionism et al.. We cannot make decisions in a vacuum…..it is the old fire hose argument. We can argue about who should siphon off more water from the hose, but the problem is that while we are attacking each other, the pressure is being drawn away by other hoses….

  123. chicagofinance says:

    To be clear, we do not have precision instruments to fight our problems….we only have blunt force, and there are going to be winners and losers, but the net effect we would hope is positive for as many as possible……instead of winners and losers we have bigger winners and smaller winners (we hope).

  124. Juice Box says:

    re # 123 – Chi banks are saving on paper, printing and postage. This is the whole secret plan to bail them out, they don’t have to mail a 1099-INTs if the account earns less than $10 in interest. A this rate another 100 years of not printing 1099-INTs and they should be able to clean up their balance sheets and buy back all that junk MBS.

  125. NJCoast says:

    According to the Monmouth/Ocean County MLS
    Amt. sold- Ave. list- Ave. sold- Ave DOM
    Monmouth
    March 2011 679 $263,932 $246,568 104
    March 2012 761 $241,995 $229,830 94

    Ocean
    March 2011 599 $195,111 $179,784 118
    March 2012 658 $185,032 $173,744 109

  126. scribe says:

    chi,

    you bet we vote, you young’uns :)

  127. borat the dictator says:

    Hii fivee

  128. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [14] grim – thanks for the Glen Rock and Ridgewood numbers. I saw them early but didn’t have time to jump back in and thank you.

  129. scribe says:

    Anybody got any interesting ETFs to recommend right now?
    I just got a query from an editor who wants to do more in that area.
    The last one – on double and triple down inverse leveraged ETFs – wow, was that a killer.
    Couldn’t have done it without Clot aka Meat.

  130. grim says:

    Hillsdale Contracts
    March 2011 – 8
    March 2012 – 7

    Hillsdale Sales
    March 2011 – 1 ($329,900)
    March 2012 – 8 ($398,064)

  131. chicagofinance says:

    I am very anti-ETF at this point….it is becoming a joke and that is bad…..I am receiving all kinds of warnings about only trading them during market hours, and only with limits, except for the largest and most liquid. You can throw out the fees, because the market maker is pocketing significant sums on bid/ask spreads, as well as filling orders with big markups…….

    scribe says:
    April 10, 2012 at 6:17 pm
    Anybody got any interesting ETFs to recommend right now?
    I just got a query from an editor who wants to do more in that area.
    The last one – on double and triple down inverse leveraged ETFs – wow, was that a killer.
    Couldn’t have done it without Clot aka Meat.

  132. Captain Sunshine says:

    Fighting for happiness, Sunshine, America and NJ!

    Smiles :)

  133. chicagofinance says:

    Captain Sunshine says:
    April 10, 2012 at 6:51 pm
    Fighting for happiness, Sunshine, America and NJ!
    Smiles :)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgwpEDAsPGY

  134. Captain Sunshine says:

    Good work today Financier of Chicago!

    Now, who’s up for a GTG at my place!

    Yippeeee!

  135. Juice Box says:

    Tard and Gator you have a new neighbor in the ridge. A friend of mine, offer just accepted…

  136. Fabius Maximus says:

    #58 Chi

    Sorry, I forgot that you seem to be unable to look objectively past the partisan leanings of an article to find the real message underneath.

    Its funny that you bring up Rush as I was over at his site trying to work out why the wingnuts were pushing the Ryan plan when it seems to be such a losing battle.

    What I found was that they seem to think that the plan had a lot of depth and layers that O would not know what front to fight on. It would tie the administration in knots with something that brought in tax cuts with no increase in the deficit. The wheels seems to have came off the bus when the CBO ran the numbers and the true impact came out. You now have Rush surrogates calling for the CBO to be abolished.

  137. Fabius Maximus says:

    #66 Chi

    The Ryan plan (regardless of who he is) is BS.
    Just like the Bush tax cuts (3.8 Trilion) he serves up 4 trillion of new tax cuts.
    You go off the rails on me saying, finally someone putting entitlement cuts, Ra Ra Ra. Well how about looking on the other side of the equation, or does the revenue side not matter to you. How about cutting spending without the revenue cuts and putting the balance against real deficit reduction.

  138. sh1tting skittles says:

    “The Ryan plan (regardless of who he is) is BS.
    Just like the Bush tax cuts (3.8 Trilion) he serves up 4 trillion of new tax cuts”.

    What if more revenue were generated as a result of the tax cuts?

    http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2004/06/the-laffer-curve-past-present-and-future

  139. chicagofinance says:

    Max: don’t brand me something I am not; I don’t care about taxes. The USG does not have a revenue problem; it has a spending problem. Find a way to reign in the spendthrifts at any cost…..

  140. Fabius Maximus says:

    #140 Skittles

    I refer to it as the “laughing curve” as it’s such a joke!

  141. Fabius Maximus says:

    #141 Chi

    “Max: don’t brand me something I am not; I don’t care about taxes.”

    Yep, that pretty much sums you up, just a one side of the equation boy!

  142. Fabius Maximus says:

    Chi,

    Here’s one for you?,What is your objective assessment of this quote? I suspect you are long natural gas so I can assume you have done due diligence on the industry.

    “According to Arthur Berman, a respected energy consultant in Texas who has spent years studying the industry, Chesapeake and its lesser competitors resemble a Ponzi scheme, overhyping the promise of shale gas in an effort to recoup their huge investments in leases and drilling. When the wells don’t pay off, the firms wind up scrambling to mask their financial troubles with convoluted off-book accounting methods. “This is an industry that is caught in the grip of magical thinking,” Berman says. “In fact, when you look at the level of debt some of these companies are carrying, and the questionable value of their gas reserves, there is a lot in common with the subprime mortgage market just before it melted down.” Like generations of energy kingpins before him, it would seem, McClendon’s primary goal is not to solve America’s energy problems, but to build a pipeline directly from your wallet into his.”

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