Lift Off?

From Bloomberg:

Home Prices Rise in 75% of U.S. Cities in Second Quarter

Prices for single-family homes climbed in three-quarters of U.S. cities and values nationally jumped the most since 2006 as real estate markets stabilized.

The median sales price increased in the second quarter from a year earlier in 110 of 147 metropolitan areas measured, the National Association of Realtors said in a report today. In the first quarter, 74 areas had gains.

U.S. housing prices are beginning to lift off the bottom after the worst housing slump since the 1930s as buyers compete for a tight supply of available properties. At the end of June, 2.39 million previously owned homes were available for sale, 24 percent fewer than a year earlier, the Realtors said.

“The turnaround in home prices feels pretty broad,” Celia Chen, a housing economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said yesterday. “There are still risks that home prices will dip a little more before they start appreciating with any consistency,”

The national median existing single-family home price was $181,500 in the second quarter, up 7.3 percent from the same period last year, the strongest annual increase since the first quarter of 2006, according to the Realtors group. Distressed properties, including discounted foreclosures and short sales, in which the price is less than the mortgage balance, accounted for 26 percent of second-quarter deals, down from 33 percent a year earlier.

The share of all-cash home purchases was 29 percent in the second quarter, down from 30 percent in the second quarter of 2011. Investors, who make up the bulk of cash purchasers and compete with first-time buyers, accounted for 19 percent of all transactions, matching the share a year earlier.

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170 Responses to Lift Off?

  1. grim says:

    Or not? From the Record:

    Home prices in New York metro region down 4.2 percent

    Second quarter home prices in the New York metropolitan area, including North Jersey, are the latest to show that property values in the region continue to trend downward in the face of other signs that the national housing market may have bottomed out.

    Prices were a median $429,900 in the second quarter, down 4.2 percent from the same period in 2011, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. Nationally, home prices were a median $181,500, up 7.3 percent from a year earlier. The NAR numbers cover existing single-family homes.

    High unemployment, tight mortgage standards and a high rate of foreclosures all continue to weigh on prices. Other data show that home values have come down more than 25 percent in the area, and about 33 percent nationwide, since prices peaked in mid-2006.

    North Jersey real estate agents said the real estate market varies town by town.

    Many sellers have become resigned to the new normal in pricing, according to Maryanne Elsaesser, a Coldwell Banker agent in Wyckoff.

    “Although the sellers are not overjoyed with the facts, their coping skills are better. They are making wise choices based on the facts presented,” Elsaesser said. “For example, if market value does not work into their personal finances they are opting to weather the storm.”

    Marilyn Nuber of Keller Williams in Ridgewood said prices have come down in that town. While low mortgage rates have brought more buyers to the market, they “are still cautious in what they are willing to invest and are doing their homework,” she said.

    Several agents said that well-priced homes in good condition have attracted multiple offers.

    “If a home comes on the market properly priced and in decent condition, it sells quickly,” said Barbara Weismann of Weichert in Tenafly. The condition of the property is crucial, she added. “Homes that need considerable work are really getting battered. “Ellen Weiner of Weichert in Clifton said low interest rates and prices have made for a busy market recently. But she has seen a number of deals where the lender’s appraisal comes in below the sale price. In those cases, sellers often lower their prices or split the difference with the buyer.

  2. gandalf says:

    seventy-five or seven-point-five?

  3. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I think Corzine consulted Goldman for their individual plan. He called it “Take the money and RUN!”

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/10/us-banks-recoveryplans-idUSBRE87905N20120810

    Exclusive: U.S. banks told to make plans for preventing collapse

    “(Reuters) – U.S. regulators directed five of the country’s biggest banks, including Bank of America Corp and Goldman Sachs Group Inc, to develop plans for staving off collapse if they faced serious problems, emphasizing that the banks could not count on government help.

    The two-year-old program, which has been largely secret until now, is in addition to the “living wills” the banks crafted to help regulators dismantle them if they actually do fail. It shows how hard regulators are working to ensure that banks have plans for worst-case scenarios and can act rationally in times of distress.”

  4. Shore Guy says:

    Just look at the old NASA films, sometimes lift off means one goes to the moon and sometimes it means you stall and crash to the ground.

  5. Essex says:

    70% refi and lots of gubmint loans. Keep pushing on that string Highlights from CNBC. Rates will go Lower.

  6. Brian aka sucker who pays his mortgage payments says:

    For the soccer fans on the board…

    Manchester United raises $233 million in IPO

    http://money.cnn.com/2012/08/09/investing/manchester-united-ipo/index.htm?iid=HP_LN

    NYSE:MANU

    Debuts today

  7. raging bull jj says:

    NJ/LI surburbs on an affordability basis are still richly priced, nearly highest in country. That plus taxes on cap gains plus medicare tax of 3.9% will hit market come January 2013 means a lot of vacation home, investment properties and high end homes bought prior to 1999 with large gains may hit market in next few months. Summer buying is over. Come Sept, Oct, Nov and December lots of homes will hit market. In particular if bush tax cuts are not extended.

    I am looking to buy in the fall as I do believe we are close to the bottom. This latest jump we saw is a dead cat bounce. Usually see a few dead cat bounces before you get traction.

  8. Grim says:

    Depending on the dataset we are in our second or third bounce.

  9. Brian says:

    Doesn’t look like any dead cats bounced in the ny metro area. It hasn’t even hit the sidewalk yet.

    Second quarter home prices in the New York metropolitan area, including North Jersey, are the latest to show that property values in the region continue to trend downward in the face of other signs that the national housing market may have bottomed out.

  10. raging bull jj says:

    Brian out in Hamptons and Long Beach LI saw a lot of traffic last few months with people snatching deals at reduced prices. Sales are way up. Dont know for how long. Fall and winter is always slow and mortgage rates are creeping up again.

    Here is an interesting questions. I saw a short sale that looked good near beach. Was going to look at it, then it gets canceled as out of blue women’s husband drops dead unexpectly. Went on property shark and title is only in husbands name. Now what? Does it become a deed in lieu where estate signs over underwater house to bank and bank sells. If so how long does that take.

  11. 30 year realtor says:

    #1, the story from The Record – I have been characterizing the market as having a slow leak. The better the school system, easier commute to NYC, the slower the leak.

    The towns that are leaking the fastest are likely to be the towns most impacted by the coming wave of foreclosures. As Gary would say, we are still in the seventh inning. The market is still drowning but the water is getting more shallow.

  12. Grim says:

    11 – Bifurcation of the North Jersey market is the big trend in my eyes. Desirable markets are doing better than holding their own , less desirable markets? Good luck.

    I’d never recommend anyone buying in any area that would be considered lower than “mid tier”. You do not want to be on the wrong side of the split.

  13. seif says:

    12 – that bifurcation would just seem to be a continuance of what has happened to America herself over the last few decades; a widening gap between the haves and the have-nots…whether it be a person (“corporations are people my friend!”), or a town.

  14. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [13] seif,

    Seif believes in equality. Everyone should be poor.

    And to those who take issue with the corp=
    people compaison, I have to ask. If they aren’t people (as in the sum of its parts), which is a characterization you clearly dispute, then what are corporations?

    It’s a legit question. Do you have a thoughtful (i.e. nonsnarky) answer? And please don’t cop out with a “legal fiction” type answer. I’m asking about substance.

  15. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [12] grim – Like when a sinking ocean liner lists way over, right? The high side looks like the place to be until everybody suddenly realizes that off the boat entirely is actually the best bet.

    11 – Bifurcation of the North Jersey market is the big trend in my eyes. Desirable markets are doing better than holding their own , less desirable markets? Good luck.

    I’d never recommend anyone buying in any area that would be considered lower than “mid tier”. You do not want to be on the wrong side of the split.

  16. Juice Box says:

    Lol – snot nosed rich kid intern has resigned. Seems he needs to take a long vacation at some exotic local before school starts. Meanwhile middle class intern nose to the grind stone. I may even offer work from home so he can earn a few bucks for beer money when the semester starts.

  17. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [15] expat,

    The Deplumes are getting off the boat. Agreed in principle to a one year lease in Chester Co PA. Nothing we saw worth buying and the taxes there aren’t that much lower than the brig. Don’t know if that speaks ill of PA or well of the brig.

    Also, we’// be on 10 acres. So I’m renting the nompound for now.

  18. Anon E. Moose says:

    30-yr [11];

    The market is still drowning but the water is getting more shallow.

    A person can drown in just 6 inches of water. The problem is all the people who jumped into the ocean without the ability to swim.

  19. seif says:

    14 – I believe in a level playing field

  20. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [16] juice,

    When some calls for a reference, say “I simply can’t recommend him too highly”. Or do the “company policy” thing and refuse.

  21. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [17] Congrats on the Nompound. Now if you can get your landlord to let you deduct improvements to the hardened perimeter from the rent…

  22. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [19] seif,

    At the start of the match or the end?

  23. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [21] expat,

    He has family all around so it will be nompoundish in that sense. Also has long open sight lines so the perimeter of lead will.suffice for now.

    Have to check local hunting and shooting rules now.

  24. Painhrtz - Yossarian says:

    Seif the playing field is level in some regards for most of us proles, wall street aside. those with ambition and willingness to take some intitative usually succeed. what you want is the playing field tilted so those who don’t have the ambition and willingness to achieve never have to bother because it is someone elses fault they are where they are. this is the complete opposite of a level playing field.

  25. Shore Guy says:

    Vanguard Real Estate. It’s bound to go up:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvnKfgDANKY

  26. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [23] I’m sure they’re very liberal as in all of PA that isn’t Philadelphia. My sister and BIL bought some pricey property to build on in Bucks County several years ago, I forget if it was 5 or 10 or 15 acres. As the architect was drawing up plans my sister freaked out when she saw hunters in the adjacent woods. I think they still own the property, but paid the architect for the work done so far and nixed building the house. They’re still making do with their McMansion in Hunterdon County with the Hummer, Lexus, and Bentley in the three car garage.

    Have to check local hunting and shooting rules now.

  27. seif says:

    “what you want is the playing field tilted so those who don’t have the ambition and willingness to achieve never have to bother”

    how the hell do YOU know what I want? the pomposity of your statement speaks volumes about you. you know barely anything about me.

    from a recent article:
    “The most common method of giving preferential treatment to the rich is through semantics. The old classic was that you called a rich kid blowing coke in his dorm room one thing, and you called a black street kid smoking crack something else, and the two got different penalties for the same crime – cocaine use.

    Or, and this one is still true in some states, the rich white kid who uses a fake ID to get into a club gets hit with a misdemeanor and a fine, while an immigrant who uses a fake ID to get a job at a chicken plant gets dragged in for a felony and can get up to 15 years in jail. Both offenses are simple forgery, but one is also called felony fraud and you get real prison time for it.”

  28. Ernest Money says:

    brain (6)-

    Looking to short that mf’er. Stock is about as good as Berbatov’s conditioning.

  29. joyce says:

    (14)

    Comrade,

    Having liability from losses limited to your investment for shareholders is one thing… why do the INDIVIDUALS working for/running the ‘corporation’ (meaning the officers/board, but not just them) have personal liability?

    Yeah yeah, I know it’s possible but can you cite a prominent example recently? It’s not like we haven’t had a lot of fraud to choose from. When a “corporation” breaks the law, no such thing has happened. The individuals broke the law, and the bosses of those individuals gave the order(s) to do so.

    Separate question (because I really do not know), why do we need to treat sole proprietors, partnerships, LP’s, LLP’s, S Corps, C Corps differently? Can’t the limits or extents to which peope are liabile for their potential business losses be decided per each contract? Similar to a mortgage, some are recourse and some are not (yes I know some states have mandates, that I do not agree with).

  30. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Damn. In mod for the first time. Let me try again:

    [24] I don’t buy it. Her and her husband bought at the top of the market in Fairlawn in ’05 and when her house on 32nd street went under water she got hooked up in the booming industry of Bergen County Mommy p0rn to get the down payment for her Wood Ridge house. Nice pair, btw.

    The End Is Nigh (Lactation Edition):
    http://news.yahoo.com/nj-mom-sues-over-breast-feeding-video-turned-220008832.html

  31. Fast Eddie says:

    “Although the sellers are not overjoyed with the facts, their coping skills are better. They are making wise choices based on the facts presented,” Elsaesser said. “For example, if market value does not work into their personal finances they are opting to weather the storm.”

    And there’s my problem. I have nothing to choose from. There’s nothing to bid on. I see 3 or 4 houses that sort of fit what I’m looking for and they’re either a piece of sh1t, an overpriced piece of sh1t, sellers who think it’s 2006 or on a double yellow. I’m trying to hold out to see if inventory pops a little after Labor Day. My buyers are patient and willing to extend as they don’t have to move in by a certain date. Technically, I have 90 days to find something (less now) but we can discuss an extension there. But, I need something to at least bid on and there’s nothing there.

  32. Juice Box says:

    re: # 20 – We don’t comment as policy. Our General Counsel and I have a good working relationship and I do my best to keep my name off of the lawsuits from former employees. If I do have to sit through a deposition, I will go to town. Our C suite execs are in depositions all the time, amazing how people don’t even see it coming after they have been slacking for years.

  33. Confused in NJ says:

    Amazing how the President only serves 3 years & spends the 4th year raising money & campaigning. New Law needed, no campaigning allowed, just 4 televised debates. No poles allowed, we’ll find out the sex of the baby when it’s born at election time.

  34. Fast Eddie says:

    I’ve labored hard to invest/save over the last 10 to 15 years on a modest salary and I still can’t figure out how the he11 people can handle the monthly nut. No matter how I juggle the numbers, the amount of give is virtually nothing without the rubber band snapping. We still have a ways to go in our area kids, there’s no doubt. People were cackling when we said a 25 percent decline, just a few years ago. Well, we are at 27 percent, headed for another 10 percent decline. To quote the great BC Bob, “it’s gonna be a long walk home!”

  35. 3B says:

    #35 Fast: lost out on one in Washington Twp. Did not act quick enough. UC at a fairly reasonable price, considering where it would have been during the bubble.

  36. Fast Eddie says:

    3b, was it in the “3s” or “4s” range or higher? I’ve been in just about everything in the 5 to 6 range in WT in the last 30 days.

  37. raging bull jj says:

    Funny thing is kids who need the internship never do them. No way could I ever afford an internship when I was in school. First owned no suits, second could never afford subway and train fare, let alone lunches in NYC, many of them are free and even ones that paid I would have to quit my year round job for a two month job, crazy. Also no benefits. I was a regular employee during school, vacation, sick days, holidays etc. An internship sucks. Plus when I graduated college in May and did not find a real job till October I just kept my current job. I was full time anyhow. Also dont people know internships are bs anyhow? I worked at Barclays bank for two years and Mastercard for three years by the time I started my first “real job” which funny enough paid slightly less than Mastercard but was a mgt. training employee. If I stayed at Barclays where I was a full time employee when I was 18 I would of had one heck of a 401k and pension by now. Plus internships are on the books. I used to push the max level of reportable income at mastercard each year. I did off the books painting, moving, etc too, the internship on top of my year round salary would have screwed me more if it paid and I could not do a free one like my friend did at MTV,

    Juice Box says:
    August 10, 2012 at 9:45 am

    Lol – snot nosed rich kid intern has resigned. Seems he needs to take a long vacation at some exotic local before school starts. Meanwhile middle class intern nose to the grind stone. I may even offer work from home so he can earn a few bucks for beer money when the semester starts.

  38. raging bull jj says:

    How much did you save each month? If you bought a modest 5k muni or investment grade bond every month for last 15 years wouldnt that add up after awhile? I mean if you are saving a lousy 500 bucks a month unless you are saving for a used Jet Ski it aint ever going to add up.

    Fast Eddie says:
    August 10, 2012 at 10:40 am

    I’ve labored hard to invest/save over the last 10 to 15 years on a modest salary and I still can’t figure out how the he11 people can handle the monthly nut. No matter how I juggle the numbers, the amount of give is virtually nothing without the rubber band snapping. We still have a ways to go in our area kids, there’s no doubt. People were cackling when we said a 25 percent decline, just a few years ago. Well, we are at 27 percent, headed for another 10 percent decline. To quote the great BC Bob, “it’s gonna be a long walk home!”

  39. grim says:

    3b – The ranch?

  40. Shore Guy says:

    I must buy a house NOW. The market is launching upward. Must not miss out.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=fvwp&NR=1&v=d5nZ-SwngnE

  41. Juice Box says:

    re: #17 – Farmer Nom? I toyed with the idea of a Vineyard then I did the math and figured I would need at least a hundred acres of vines to make a decent back breaking living selling wholesale in a good year and in a bad year I will have to eat the crops to survive. It is just easier as JJ says to hit a few buttons and make a quick buck in the markets. If you are renting those 10 acres then I gather you will be back in say a 5-7 year time frame?

  42. 3B says:

    #40 grim: Yes the ranch on Beech. It was perfect for our needs, and although dated, very well maintained.

  43. 3B says:

    #37 Fast: It was in the 3’s. Perfect for our needs, a little dated, but well maintained. “Reasonable” (under 10k), taxes.

  44. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [30] joyce

    I assume you meant that you don’t understand why they don’t have personal liability.

    Well, if we went all China and started imposing personal liability on execs for what their underlings did, how do we fill those positions? First, there already is personal liability but it is limited. Execs carry hefty D&O liability insurance (or the companies carry it), so civil lawsuits don’t ding them.

    But suppose you strip that. Pass a law outlawing D&O coverage and then impose personal liability on directors and execs. If I were an exec, I’d pop that golden parachute so fast you wouldn’t see me. Over time, companies would redomesticate, or at least move their HQs and assets out of the US to debtor friendly jurisdictions. And if you want criminal liability beyond what is there now, then the HQ is in a nonextradition country, and US operations are thinly capitalized.

    We have already pushed a lot of US business offshore for reasons of cost, regulation, taxes, plaintiff-friendly courts and juries, etc. This would simply be another GTFO signal.

    Now, seif will tell you that this leaves a vacuum to be filled by domestic companies. But who will run them? And won’t the costs of protection be passed on as they are now?

    You asked about the distinction between partnerships, LLCs, and C corps. These are driven by tax and liability considerations. In a nutshell, C corps provided liability protection for owners (limited to investment) but at a tax cost (double taxation of dividend income). S corps are a different animal; they can be corporations but treated as pass throughs if they meet certain criteria.

    States govern registration and they started passing LLC/LLP laws to allow small businesses that did not want S corp status to get liability protection but keep the pass through tax treatment (meaning single level of taxation, not double). I won’t get into the distinction between GPs and LPs, or between managing and nonmanaging members of LLCs, but that provides further levels of insulation and tax treatment.

    AT this point, the only meaningful distinction between pass throughs and C corps is tax treatment, which can vary considerably and at many levels. This is why the S corp and LLC/LLP model has become so popular. But with Obama, I can see the C corp becoming resurgent because he is going after the pass-throughs.

  45. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [42] juice,

    don’t know that I will even be able to farm those fields. It isn’t as if I am renting the field intentionally; it comes with the house. But my position is that, absent something in the lease, I can farm some or all of it or tenant it out.

    Realistically, I would simply want to turn over several hundred sq feet and have a kick ass veggie garden. Eat healthy and do some canning in the fall. I love pickles.

  46. Brian says:

    Why is it not level now, and how would you propose we level it?

    19.seif says:
    August 10, 2012 at 9:49 am
    14 – I believe in a level playing field

  47. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    We got an offer in yesterday. Low but much higher than the lowball that some yuppie hoboken couple tried to pitch us (I love how their realtor called to ask why we hadn’t countered, then called later and said “are you ready to negotiate now?” (yes, direct quote). We are doing the dance to the middle now but after one iteration, we staked out our walkaway number. Told the realtor to present it nicely (we do like the people) but for them to please not counter below that; I won’t consider it because we’d be slitting our wrists. Finances of our situation are such that we could pull it and re-list in prime time at the same price and still do better even if it sat empty over the winter. And if we got a short term tenant, then its gravy.

    If they walk, I turn my backup realtor loose and say get us a short termer and whichever realtor gets us a lease/offer first wins.

    I know it sounds crazy, but our relo package makes it worthwhile to do it this way.

  48. Meatish says:

    Leveling the playing field in an instant.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=11e8XyUBqRQ&feature=related

  49. grim says:

    Beech was on for 2-3 weeks before it went into AR. I thought you were talking about the ranch on Washington, went into ARIP in 10 days. Even that is a long time in comparison.

    Just from this past week…

    Fenway in River Edge, 1 day. Woodland in River Edge, 6 days. Haase in Paramus, 4 days. Walton in Oakland, 1 day. Hemlock in Oakland, 6 days. Deerhaven in Mahwah, 2 days. Queen Anne in Bogota, 4 days. Gilbert in Elmwood Park, 7 days. Jefferson in Tenafly, 2 days. Calvin in Wyckoff, 6 days.

  50. Happy Renter says:

    [28] “the rich white kid who uses a fake ID to get into a club gets hit with a misdemeanor and a fine, while an immigrant who uses a fake ID to get a job at a chicken plant gets dragged in for a felony and can get up to 15 years in jail”

    Yeah, because these things are TOTALLY equivalent:

    (1) a kid using a fake ID to get into a nightclub for a few hours because he’s too young to drink; and

    (2) a man illegally entering/staying in the U.S. in violation of federal immigration law, and then using a fake ID to obtain employment (probably under some U.S. citizen’s SSN, with all the fraud that entails in terms of gov’t tax records) and fill a job that would otherwise have gone to a U.S. citizen or legal alien with the proper work permits (i.e. an immigrant who followed the rules and waited his turn in line).

    Yup. Totally the same thing.

  51. 3B says:

    #51 grim: Missed it when it first came on, out of the country.Would not buy on Washington, main drag. Plenty to choose from in River Edge, if we were interested in staying there. Disappointed we missed Beech.

  52. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [52] happy,

    Fair point. I do, however, agree on the coke use example. The rationale was that the externalities of crack dealing are perceived to be worse. But are they? Ask anyone in Nogales.

    However seif fails to appreciate that even with similar penalties (ranges actually), those who can afford better lawyers and present better (employed father vs. street thug) will get lower sentences. Only way to prevent that is mandatory sentencing and a ban on plea deals, and we all know how liberals feel about that.

  53. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    OT Alert,

    I know this a-hole personally. I’d love to see him locked up again. In a trunk, then have the trunk taken offshore. Way offshore. Too bad Whitey is also locked up; he’s the man for the job.

    http://news.yahoo.com/brother-skater-nancy-kerrigan-free-prison-against-wishes-192015446–spt.html

  54. joyce says:

    (45)
    Comrade,
    Yes, you were right on my typo. I am no fan of nonsensical/burdensome regulation.
    And I was referring to criminal liability. You cannot allow people/businesses to operate in this country if they are not going to obey the laws. Swift, harse justice of past crimes (with due process of course) is required to deter future law-breaking, not “regulation” before the fact (which some times treats everyone as if they are a criminal akin to other aspects of our personal lives here in Amerika). Put individuals in prison, clawback ill-gotten gains, and revoke charters.

    If I’m not mistaken, Bank Officers and the Board in Switzerland are personally liable. [As Kyle Bass has said, “This fact raises their ‘Give a sh*t factor.] And I’m pretty sure that Swiss industry is doing very well.
    I think raising the cost of doing business (driving companies out of business or offshore) is a legitimate concern, but you seem to think of that as the ONLY concern. The Rule of Law cannot be thrown out in the meantime.

    Regarding the distinction between partnerships, corps, etc… you confirmed what I thought and that it is all in relation to the ridiculous tax code we have at all levels. These vehicles for forming a business are all attempting to treat the symptoms not the disease. You personally may not like it but the tax code needs to fit on one piece of paper (ok exaggeration but you catch my drift).

    What is the stat on the cost of compliance for individuals and businesses for both the code and the accompanying regualations? How much and what % of the economy? I bet it grows every year.

  55. Happy Renter says:

    [54] As far as I recall, the increased penalties for crack were implemented during the 80s at the behest of urban leaders, because it was tearing up their neighborhoods with violence from users/dealers alike. To view it as some plot to help rich white kids (and we always have to call them white kids, right? because rich blacks don’t do coke) get off easy is myopic. When was the last time a college student doing blow in his dorm room shot up a playground in a drive by?

    I don’t know. I think it should all be legal anyway. Assuming that’s not going to happen, I generally agree that drugs that are pretty much equivalent should have similar penalties. But some distinctions might make sense (e.g. location, proximity to schools, etc.).

    But of course, the poor crackheads suffer the injustice of being in denser urban environments, so that must be another plot to help “rich white kids” get away with doing blow in their dorm rooms.

  56. seif says:

    52 – i bet you were real proud of yourself after penning that…

    …you are absolutely right. they are not equivalent:
    Drivers under the age of 21 represent 10 percent of licensed drivers but are responsible for 17 percent of fatal alcohol-related crashes.

    54 – The level playing field, right?
    “However seif fails to appreciate that even with similar penalties (ranges actually), those who can afford better lawyers and present better (employed father vs. street thug) will get lower sentences.”

  57. Fast Eddie says:

    I might add that I did put in a lowball on a house two weeks ago. It needed kitchen/bath re-dooz and lotsa wall paper but had the curb appeal, ambience, etc. Another offer was accepted this past week on the joint but this one took a ride down the market slide for a year or better. I sold my house for 95 percent of ask so I’m hoping to find something I like but I refuse to fund someone elses dream. If we have to let the contract fall in 70 days, I have no problem with it. These sellers can still go f*ck themselves, as far as I’m concerned. Their financial f*ckup is not my problem.

  58. Happy Renter says:

    [58] “Drivers under the age of 21 represent 10 percent of licensed drivers but are responsible for 17 percent of fatal alcohol-related crashes.”

    Yes folks, time for another game of Total Non Sequitur!

    “The Federal Bureau of Prisons reports that 26.4 percent of inmates in federal prisons are non-U.S. citizens. Non-citizens are 8.6 percent of the nation’s adult population.”

  59. seif says:

    60 – non sequitur?

    there is a long list of awful things that happen when someone uses fake ID in one case…but in the other case it is just “a kid wants to drink for a couple hours.”

    that’s a clown statement, bro.

  60. seif says:

    60 – your statistic again proves the point of a playing field that is not level. thanks for providing.

  61. Fabius Maximus says:

    This has to be the worst campaign ever. Mistep after mistep.
    Were they having problems finding a GOP registered farmer in Iowa?
    http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/10/667431/romney-visits-iowa-farmer-who-is-also-a-millionaire-real-estate-mogul-with-a-personal-car-wash/?mobile=wp

  62. Happy Renter says:

    [62] Yeah, because it’s all a big conspiracy to help “white kids.” That’s why there’s a different penalty for showing a bouncer at a bar a fake ID versus using someone’s SSN to get a job, or a driver’s license, or a passport . . .

    Keep fighting the power, “bro.”

  63. Fabius Maximus says:

    I felt sorry for the guy across the street for a few minutes this moring. To the left of his house a builder bought the lot and tore the house down. So it is a grass lot with a strip of asphalt. Behind him, the same builder did the same to another lot that ajoins him. Behind him is a short sale that is not moving. Now to the right of him the house just hit as a bank REO. Bought 2004 for $700, now over priced at $549.

    Then I look at his Gadsden flag and think Karma does have a wicked sense of humor.

  64. Theo says:

    Tax appeal day at the Bergen County Board of Taxation – Up today Bergenfield and Hillsdale. Got 1700 off my taxes just by not falling asleep and missing my name called in the two hours it took to get through about 10 people. Would have rejected the deal and stayed to go before the board, but had a business meeting I couldn’t miss. To bad the whole town is being reassessed this year. No doubt my taxes will go right back up next year.

  65. seif says:

    64 – you are MAKING UP all of the “stolen SS#, passport and driver’s license under someone else’s name” to support your straw man argument. yes, it happens, but that is not what the original argument or discussion was about. you are making up boogey-man bullsh*t to support an argument that you are having with yourself….the same way you are negating any possible negatives that can come from “a kid who just wants to be in the club for a few hours.”

    you’re in clown school, brah.

  66. Happy Renter says:

    [67] “you’re in clown school, brah.”

    Is that Basque?

  67. 3B says:

    #66 Theo: Any news on the school funding battle between Hillsdale, Montvale,WCL, and, River Vale?

  68. Brian says:

    Seif, I’m not sure if you read my comment but I was interested in how you think “the playing field” is not level. In your first comment regarding “playing fields” I thought you were refering to economic ones but then it appears you switched to a legal playing field. (are you saying the economic playing field influences the outcome in the legal one?)

    Anyway, if we could speak to the economic playing field for a second, I’m interested in specifically how you think it isn’t level.

  69. Theo says:

    #69

    Haven’t really heard much since it was mentioned last month that Montvale and Woodcliffe Lake wanted to try and separate. It sounded like Montvale was getting cold feet based on the potential legal costs. I anticipate it is something that will take a number of years to settle.

  70. SRK says:

    Sorry for digression from topic. Replying from July 31st, Sorry, so busy with work in new house and packing (read throwing junk and shredding papers) in old apartment. Lease runs out on Aug 31st.

    A home buyer, Congrats on your new home.

    Mike In Waiting, Good luck with your closing.

    Home buyer and Mike, god to know that you are buying similar size homes. Looks like we made the right decision with the size of home !

    Right now negotiating with fencing. Where’s our doomsday expert, he isint around just when I needed advice on how to ‘secure’ the perimeter properly with moats, (gun?)boats, check points and view-towers :-)

  71. 3B says:

    #71 Thanks.

  72. seif says:

    70 – Brian…I saw your question/comment. I think a few of the examples that ended up following represent how legal and economic go hand in hand and are one in the same in many cases. How much better of an example can you get than a lawyer stating (i paraphrase): “people with better economic capabilities get better legal outcomes.”

    Economically…really? Do your own research. There are tons of articles, studies and stats online that can enlighten you on how the last 30 years the economic playing field/tax code has been tilted towards the rich….trickle up economics.

  73. Richard says:

    Are August Open houses worth going to? I can’t see much, seems like everyone is on holiday. I guess there are fewer buyers around and there could be something worthwhile.

  74. Ernest Money says:

    renter (68)-

    Seif only speaks idiot.

    “Is that Basque?”

  75. joyce says:

    74

    seif,

    It all begins with monetary policy and the FED. Please rant about that for once.

  76. joyce says:

    Oh, and also, the “regulations” are mainly a tool used by ‘big business’ to squash (or prevent from even starting) their competitors.

  77. chicagofinance says:

    seif: Strawman? This analysis is exactly correct.

    Happy Renter says:

    August 10, 2012 at 12:02 pm

    [28] “the rich white kid who uses a fake ID to get into a club gets hit with a misdemeanor and a fine, while an immigrant who uses a fake ID to get a job at a chicken plant gets dragged in for a felony and can get up to 15 years in jail”

    Yeah, because these things are TOTALLY equivalent:

    (1) a kid using a fake ID to get into a nightclub for a few hours because he’s too young to drink; and

    (2) a man illegally entering/staying in the U.S. in violation of federal immigration law, and then using a fake ID to obtain employment (probably under some U.S. citizen’s SSN, with all the fraud that entails in terms of gov’t tax records) and fill a job that would otherwise have gone to a U.S. citizen or legal alien with the proper work permits (i.e. an immigrant who followed the rules and waited his turn in line).

    Yup. Totally the same thing.

  78. seif says:

    76 – i speak LOVE as well. and I love you. your poor wounded soul needs love….i am answering your cries for help.

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_GMxTWEQXJvY/SPz_tQ0MM6I/AAAAAAAAACw/1bB1dzQWF4o/s400/8-17-06-peace_love.jpg

  79. Brian says:

    74 –
    So become rich. Is that no longer possibe in the US?

  80. raging bull jj says:

    I looked at a house and realtor was expecting an offer. I did promise to make a formal offer today. Here is offer I presented today.

    The seller has 48 hours to submit to me her absolute best offer. She is to come up with the lowest price she is willing to accept for house. I will not negotiate or counter. I will however within 48 hours either accept or reject her offer.

    Told her I don’t have time for games back and forth with non-serious sellers. If seller wants to sell give me the number, what idiot came up with buyers should make offers.

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    August 10, 2012 at 11:51 am

    We got an offer in yesterday. Low but much higher than the lowball that some yuppie hoboken couple tried to pitch us (I love how their realtor called to ask why we hadn’t countered, then called later and said “are you ready to negotiate now?” (yes, direct quote). We are doing the dance to the middle now but after one iteration, we staked out our walkaway number. Told the realtor to present it nicely (we do like the people) but for them to please not counter below that; I won’t consider it because we’d be slitting our wrists. Finances of our situation are such that we could pull it and re-list in prime time at the same price and still do better even if it sat empty over the winter. And if we got a short term tenant, then its gravy.

    If they walk, I turn my backup realtor loose and say get us a short termer and whichever realtor gets us a lease/offer first wins.

    I know it sounds crazy, but our relo package makes it worthwhile to do it this way.

  81. Shore Guy says:

    The plot thickens:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/jon-huntsman-sr-longtime-romney-backer-calls-on-him-to-release-tax-returns/2012/08/10/9f343a8c-e312-11e1-98e7-89d659f9c106_blog.html

    Jon Huntsman Sr., longtime Romney backer, calls on him to release tax returns
    By Greg Sargent
    The internet is alive with speculation that the secret source Harry Reid claims to have on Mitt Romney’s tax returns is Utah industrialist Jon Huntsman Sr. He is the founder of Hunstman Corporation and the father of the former GOP presidential candidate — and the speculation is based on the fact that his profile fits with much of what we publicly know about Reid’s presumed confidante.

    But I just got off the phone with Huntsman, and he confirmed to me that he is not Reid’s source.

    However, in a move that could be significant, Huntsman forcefully called on Romney to release his tax returns. This matters, because Huntsman is a longtime backer of Romney — he has long been close to Romney; he supported his early campaigns; he was the national finance chairman of Romney’s 2008 presidential campaign; and he has raised a lot of money for him over the years. (He backed his own son in the latest GOP primary.)

    “I feel very badly that Mitt won’t release his taxes and won’t be fair with the American people,” Huntsman told me.

    snip

    “Mr. Romney ought to square with the American people and release his taxes like any other candidate,” Huntsman said. “I’ve supported Mitt all along. I wish him well. But I do think he should release his income taxes.”

    Reid has claimed that he has it from someone who knows that Romney paid no taxes for a long time. Some have speculated Huntsman is Reid’s source because Huntsman is partners with Robert Gay, a lontime managing director of Bain; they are both officers at Huntsman Gay Global Capital. Huntsman is also close to Reid.

    snip

  82. Fabius Maximus says:

    Stu,

    Might be heading to Yonkers tonight. You had posted a good VP strategy guide, could you repost the link?

  83. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    We have an agreement (and one at 35K over the “are you ready to negotiate now?” couple from Hoboken). They came up to my walkaway number even though our agent said they never would. So I am exiting New Jersey now, except for my practice.

    Loss on the house is 70K, and I figure I put in at least 20K in improvements over the years. On the plus side, relo picks up the costs and some other things, so that defrays my expenses. And when one considers what I gained in relo on the last two house sales, I technically lost nothing compared to a private seller. Not happy with loss but ATEOTD, I gained and lost monopoly money on house sales and still am slightly ahead or neutral.

    Will spill some more details after the close, which isn’t for awhile. Nice thing is that I also get out of PITI if I move out before closing. That puts a few bucks back in my pocket.

    Time to hand off the bag and go back to being a dirty renter.

  84. Fabius Maximus says:

    #84
    Scratch that, Just read the reviews and I think I’ll be eating and will stick to the racing.

  85. Happy Renter says:

    [85] Congrats, Nom. I grew up not far from where you a headed; it’s a nice place to live.

    “I am exiting New Jersey now, except for my practice”

    I haven’t been following your plans closely, and you may have already mentioned it, but I hope this doesn’t mean you’re commuting from PA to NJ on a regular basis . . .

  86. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [58] seif

    “54 – The level playing field, right?”

    And your proposed solution is??????

  87. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [87] renter,

    No, and perhaps never. Remains to be seen.

  88. raging bull jj says:

    Congrats on raising the average IQ in both Jersey and PA.

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    August 10, 2012 at 3:41 pm

    We have an agreement (and one at 35K over the “are you ready to negotiate now?” couple from Hoboken). They came up to my walkaway number even though our agent said they never would. So I am exiting New Jersey now, except for my practice.

    Loss on the house is 70K, and I figure I put in at least 20K in improvements over the years. On the plus side, relo picks up the costs and some other things, so that defrays my expenses. And when one considers what I gained in relo on the last two house sales, I technically lost nothing compared to a private seller. Not happy with loss but ATEOTD, I gained and lost monopoly money on house sales and still am slightly ahead or neutral.

    Will spill some more details after the close, which isn’t for awhile. Nice thing is that I also get out of PITI if I move out before closing. That puts a few bucks back in my pocket.

    Time to hand off the bag and go back to being a dirty renter.

  89. Ragnar says:

    Shore,
    Maybe Romney is afraid of letting the Mormon police see that he hasn’t donated his 10% to the church?
    He released his 2010 tax returns, and his estimated 2011 returns earlier this year, but it looks like he filed an extension.
    A guy like this would have very complicated tax returns – if he releases his tax returns and then has to go back and amend, then his opponents will claim he’s a tax cheat.

    I hadn’t looked into this before but this all looks like a tempest in a teapot.
    70% of our population thinks that filing taxes means filling out a 1080 EZ in 5 minutes and getting a check in the mail from the government in a couple of weeks.

    My own taxes, with the assistance of a big named accounting firm, have been chaos over the past 2 years, because of the incredible obscurity of the US tax code, and the complexity forced upon higher income earners.

  90. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [70] brian,

    There are two inequalities to consider: Opportunity and Outcome.

    Most people agree (I think) that equality of opportunity is a GOOD THING. The issue then comes down to how we enforce or guarantee that. Is it the minimal standard of making sure that there are no government barriers to success? Or do we go further, as the left often suggests, to somehow “normalize” the starting line so that a billionaire with an idea and a welfare mom with an idea each get the same access to capital, gov assistance, legal help, etc. And when one considers the progressive tax code and its stated goal of redistribution, aren’t we doing that to a degree already? Seif hasn’t answered this because, at its core, you necessarily impinge on American traditions and even constitutional protections. You also distort economic principles and that requires you to substitute in some new ones.

    Moving along, I also think that most people would agree that equality of outcome would require intrusive government intervention in the markets. Again, we sorta have this to a degree, courtesy of the tax code and willing cohorts on Capitol Hill, on both sides of the aisle and ledger. Again, the progressive tax code is designed to curtail “excessive” success and to force (read, distort) actors to make decisions that they might not otherwise make. Further, there is the welfare state, which is predicated on the belief that there is a right to be supported no matter what. This morphed from the old ideas of charity and became an entitlement, and is now the welfare state. Welfare economists (yes, there is such an animal) then theorize on how to provide a welfare state but that necessarily conflicts with free market capitalism which treats it as a tax. At its extreme, the equality of outcome crowd will those who fail to be made whole, and those who succeed to prop up those who fail (and I mean this in the employment sense as well as business sense). But, as John Rawls himself noted, that would essentially shut down growth and production. So the welfare statists and economists accept (grudgingly) a degree of inequality so that the Makers will have an incentive to produce something that the Takers can take.

    But when you pour enough boron onto a nuclear pile, fission stops. So too with capitalistic production; pour on enough demands and the system stops. Taxes, regulation, demands on the workplace, more regulation, more taxes, etc. The Takers and their enablers in the Democratic Party don’t like to be compared to parasites but that is an apt description: A parasite lives off its host. But it must also acheive a balance with the host and not overtax it. It is a poor parasite that kills its host because, obviously, when the host dies, the parasite dies. Kind of like the US manufacturing sector.

  91. Anon E. Moose says:

    Fab [84];

    If forced to go there, my strategy would involve latex gloves coated with Purell — inside and out. And one of those non-contact RFID Chip credit/debit cards to fund the machines.

  92. All Hype says:

    Fabius (63):

    Mittens cannot get out of his own way. He really is that out of touch with anyone other than rich people. The guy is throwing the presidency away without even trying. Obama does not even need to script anything against Mittens. He is providing Obama all the ammo he needs.

  93. Anon E. Moose says:

    Re [76, 91];

    Its so rare that the gentleman and I agree, that I always think its worth noting.

  94. All Hype says:

    Non Deplume:

    Congrads on selling your house. Sorry you took a loss.

  95. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [92] ragnar,

    I can’t speak from personal knowledge, but I know that tax returns for people like Romney go into the hundreds of pages. These include schedules and a myriad of forms, disclosures, and explanations. You can bet that he has taken aggressive positions on things that his opponents will eviscerate as unfair or cheating. And its easy to figure this out because all “uncertain” tax positions, aggressive tax positions, and something called “listed transactions” must be separately disclosed and discussed. Romney probably has lots of these. You know that those will be attacked, and that the suggestion will be made that they are abusive even if IRS never said so.

    But there is at least one board liberal here who has taken the position that if the IRS fails to contest an aggressive tax position, it isn’t cheating. I don’t expect any such grief from him.

  96. Ernest Money says:

    The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

  97. Ernest Money says:

    It would be fun to try and blow up an IRS facility. Challenging, even.

  98. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    E. Money,

    Going to see the Toon in NYC week from Sat. You in the shop that day? Will come by and buy.

  99. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [100] money,

    Not really. There’s a large location not far from me, right across the brig line in Springfield. Not that anyone knows that. You could drive right up to it.

    Come to think of it, I am there periodically. Maybe I shouldn’t say where it is.

  100. Ragnar says:

    Selling your house for a loss is the new normal.

  101. Ragnar says:

    Lots of people say that they are in favor of equality of opportunity. Except for their children: they want them to have an edge.

    Why shouldn’t my own successes be allowed to contribute to an advantage for my child?

    The only way to guarantee equality of opportunity is to have the state take away everyone’s children after they’re born. Like in Plato’s Republic. Even then, I don’t think Camden’s little crackbabies will have an equal chance at success. And even if the Americans agreed to let the state take their babies to guarantee equality of opportunity – guess what – the people of Uganda would be knocking on our door saying “where’s our equality of opportunity?” Let our kids in too. It’s not our kids’ fault they were born in a hellhole to poor people like us, it’s unfair that all the Americans get more opportunties.

  102. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Gator, congrats!

  103. Anon E. Moose says:

    Ragnar [104];

    I love this anecdote from Guido Calabresi’s Yale Law 1L class. It goes something like this:

    Raise your hands if you favor redistribution of income — [lots of hands go up — it is Yale, after all]
    Keep your hands up if you favor redistribution of GPA points — [all hands go down — it is Yale, after all… very competitive entry]

    It seems the class is more in favor of redistributing other people’s advantages.

  104. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [49] Nom – This is based on at least two assumptions, no? Assumption 1: It sells next Spring into an equal or better market. Assumption 2: Zero problems over the winter or at least all problems occurring over the winter are at Zero net cost(insurance – maybe zero dollars net, but zero time invested?). How many years over the last 6 or 7 years would rejecting the best “fresh” offer and relisting in the Spring be the most prudent move? Just sell to my straw man already.

    Finances of our situation are such that we could pull it and re-list in prime time at the same price and still do better even if it sat empty over the winter.

  105. Ernest Money says:

    plume (101)-

    Maybe. Might have to play me some hooky that day.

    Dembas not for sale (yet). We keep them, CL is a lock. I like that Ben Arfa predicted they’ll win the EPL. And, they could do it. At least they don’t send out a midfield full of guys who should be in wheelchairs.

  106. Ernest Money says:

    Once MANU breaks under $14, they’ll be another Faceplant.

  107. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [49] Nom – BTW, what the heck does that mean? I don’t know what your equity stake is but you’re talking about, what, a $30K difference of opinion? I’m sure you’ve had that same delta on fed taxes owed, realized stock investment returns, etc. It’s a frickin’ old house, not your dignity or legacy. WTF?

    I won’t consider it because we’d be slitting our wrists.

  108. Shore Guy says:

    “My own taxes, with the assistance of a big named accounting firm, have been chaos over the past 2 years, because of the incredible obscurity of the US tax code, and the complexity forced upon higher income earners.”

    Tell me about it. For 2011, we will end up paying taxes in over 20 states, and about 10 foreign countries. We are no Romneys abd our stack of tax documents is huge. Freaking flat tax, now!

  109. chicagofinance says:

    My favorite Friedman quote is even more applicable today than it was during his life. “If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert,” he said, “in five years there would be a shortage of sand.”

    Timothy B. Norbeck

    Bonita Springs, Fla.

  110. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    E. Money

    Toon Army NYC will be meeting at legends near herald sq. to watch live. I expect dozens to show. If last year’s spurs match is any indication, it should be quite a party. Less than a block from Path stop. Practice your Blaydon Races.

    We should invite fabmax. He can be the human sacrifice.

  111. seif says:

    Here’s something you see EVERYDAY…a right-winger groveling at the feet of the extreme right! You guys make a great couple. Where are you registered?

    Anon E. Moose says:
    August 10, 2012 at 4:17 pm
    Re [76, 91];

    Its so rare that the gentleman and I agree, that I always think its worth noting.

  112. beton says:

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  113. joyce says:

    seif

    please give your definition of right and left?

  114. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Romney chooses Paul Ryan for VP, huh? Ryan talks a good game but I was personally disturbed when he disclosed his Stock holdings:

    Notable holdings:
    Bank of New York
    JP Morgan Chase
    Bank of America
    Berkshire Hathaway
    MasterCard
    Philip Morris
    Conoco
    PIMCO
    Goldman Sachs
    Apple

    http://www.businessinsider.com/members-of-congress-reveal-their-favorite-stocks-2011-6#paul-ryan-r-wi-10

  115. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [117] expat,

    Questions: First, how held? Probably not a blind trust I gather?

    Second, these are all widely held stocks. Lot of dividend payers.

    Third, how much does he own? Does 100 shares of GS bespeak a major conflict of interest?

    Fourth, is the suggestion that he shouldn’t be investing in any industry Congress may regulate or oversee? That’s virtually everything domestic and a lot of foreign. And if he invested in Toshiba or Hyundai, we’d be hearing about that, wouldn’t we.

    Tempest in a teapot. Anyone who goes to that issue isn’t voting for him anyway.

  116. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Personally, I hate this pick. Ryan is a smart, principled guy, but you don’t get to the WH on being principled. Ask the current occupant.

  117. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Expat,

    I know you were all over my decision to hold and dig in. It paid off not listening to the noise and my broker. I’d go over the details about the relo package and why it would have paid, but its all moot now. As for assumptions, you’re right but I was looking at three possible outcomes: market goes up, market goes down, market stays flat. I only lose with the second outcome. Anyway, as I said, its moot now.

    Did some rough back of the envelope calculating and I think that the check I expect at closing is roughly equal to my down payment, and perhaps (!) a bit more. Will have to check to be sure. If that’s the case, I basically rented from the bank for the past 4 years at what is roughly market rent.

    BTW, here is an interesting tidbit from the sale: When I saw the offer, I saw that the buyer was represented by an attorney with the same last name as my broker. I also knew she said her husband was a RE attorney. I asked her directly and then subtly suggested that it should have been disclosed. Her response was “I told you he did RE law”. My wife was initially upset to learn this, but I reminded her that we treated her from the outset as someone we couldn’t trust (we really treated her as if she was the other side and kept our cards very close to the vest). She noted that it actually might have worked in our favor: If our broker was talking and hubby was passing info thru to the buyers, then the buyers thought they had an insight into our position. But I was controlling the message so it was actually what I wanted them to hear. Their atty could tell them “nope, this guy is serious. He will walk. If you want the house, meet the number.” And they did.

    Living in NJ has taught me that everyone looks out for No. 1 and will screw you to get ahead, so act accordingly. If you know that going in, you can actually turn it to your advantage.

  118. Jill says:

    3b #43: I’m sorry to hear it. I was looking forward to bringing you and Mrs. 3b a cake.

  119. Jill says:

    Shore #83: There’s a fair amount of speculation that Huntsman, Sr. is Reid’s source. No love lost between the Huntsmans and the Dancing Horse Family.

    3b: Just FYI, WT is looking to do a reval in the next couple of years. Since McMansions are not moving, look for people like thee and me to get clobbered and Bob Schroeder to get a nice big tax cut. (Patch is a good source for news on the spectacular decline and fall of the self-styled King of Washington Township, btw.)

  120. Anon E. Moose says:

    Jill [122];

    I wouldn’t be surprised, considering how Huntsman is now publicly calling for Romney to release his tax returns. Don’t understand what Huntsman’s angle is, though. He is a back-bencher and an also ran. Does he think hurting Romney positions him for 2016?

  121. Juice Box says:

    Yowza – only reason Romney picked Ryan was to take the heat off himself, Ryan
    mixes catholicsm with Ann Rand which is a whole new kind of crazy, that even a mormon could be jealous of.

  122. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [121] Nom – Sounds like you’re in a good spot. Congrats. I’m guessing that unless there is a schoolhouse right on your rental property your kids will have a slightly longer walk to school, or is private the way to go in rural PA? Between you, gary, grim et al there’s a lot of team changing going on these days. It’s very interesting to read subtle and sometimes not so subtle changes in outlook based on the changes in NJRERe contributors’ transitioning situations. I’m interested to read your outlook in the coming months after you get out from under your $14K property tax bill and mortgage.

  123. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [125] Ann Rand, that’s Ayn’s sister, right? I heard they were originally going to collaborate on one work, but then went there separate ways. The title they were working on together had a working title of The Rand-McNally Atlas Shrugged. Apparently McNally was doing them both and that ended the project.

    Yowza – only reason Romney picked Ryan was to take the heat off himself, Ryan
    mixes catholicsm with Ann Rand which is a whole new kind of crazy, that even a mormon could be jealous of.

  124. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I hate when I use the wrong there, they’re, or their.

  125. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [91] This was JJ’s most clever comment ever.

    Congrats on raising the average IQ in both Jersey and PA.

  126. 3b says:

    #121 Jill: Yes. We are too, but it is only a house. We will find another, but it was in great shape over all. I have been following WT Patch (at your suggestion, thanks) and I saw the reval thing. At the end of the day though taxes will still be a lot lower than RE. And WT does not have (from what I have been able to find out) massive new rental housing slated to be built like RE.

  127. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [89] JJ

    I used to joke about moving back to Mass and lowering the average IQ of both Mass and NJ.

    Then, when CNN ran some stories on concentrations of degree holders and grad degree holders, I came to an astonishing, but not entirely unexpected conclusion.

    I was right. I would lower the average IQ in both states (if you used degrees as a proxy for IQ).

    So, you’re half right. I will raise it in PA.

    But don’t worry about being only half right. You’re still a Legend In Your Own Mind and the Most Interesting Man in The World (if the world consists only of Grim’s blog).

  128. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [125] Expat,

    It’s Unionville-Chadds Ford School District (very blue ribbony) and I believe that they bus. Our primary criteria was schools (and certain aspects in particular), and this area blew away everywhere else in the area except the Main Line.

    This is horse country, so it is rural in that it is much less concentrated than the Brig, but it isn’t Phillipsburg rural.

    Of course, it isn’t PBC, but then I won’t have the tax nut y’all have.

  129. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Nom – didn’t know “assume a can opener” and now I’ll readily admit I don’t know “PBC”. Oh well, I’ve never been the sharpest tool in the shed, in fact, I think I was often left just leant up against the shed to rust due to lack of projected future value. My mom and a few generations of her family were from Central PA (Pennsyltucky) and I took my family there for a short visit this summer (half a day). It’s sad and jobless but so much of it is exactly the same as 40 years ago when I was a kid. My grandmother’s old house is actually one of the best maintained houses in town, just by pure luck, as a girl I used to know when I was elementary-aged bought it and the houses adjacent as tear-downs and expansions of her property. Anyway, take your kids for a cheap day at Knoebels Amusement Resort (Knoebels Grove in my youth, family owned since 1926). Your kids will enjoy the rides, you and Mrs. Deplume will enjoy the shaded benches surrounding every ride and the most amazing attraction for metro raised adults is just people-watching at an amusement park that is 99% caucasian operated and attended.

  130. Jill says:

    3b #129: You’d better keep your eye on Hillsdale, then….there’s a developer looking to build about 100 rental units on Patterson St. Yes, it’s a flood plain, but that’ll be an awful lot of kids coming into the schools….

  131. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [132] expat,

    PBC= prestigious Bergen county

    And I rechecked. We are moving to Chadds Ford. Also very prestigious.

  132. Shore Guy says:

    “The guy is throwing the presidency away without even trying. Obama does not even need to script anything against Mittens. He is providing Obama all the ammo he needs.”

    Yup. My wallet is now closed to Mitt and the GOP the rest of this year. Mitt will need to waste his own money. Im going to go to dinner a few times instead of giving it to him.

  133. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    This is a reasonably good article (considering the source) on Romney and taxes.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/11/business/in-the-superrich-clues-to-romneys-tax-returns-common-sense.html?pagewanted=1&_r=3&ref=business

    It doesn’t tell me anything I don’t already know. But one passage got my attention:

    “It so happens that this summer the Internal Revenue Service released data from the 400 individual income tax returns reporting the highest adjusted gross income. This elite ultrarich group earned on average $202 million in 2009, the latest year available. And buried in the data is the startling disclosure that six of the 400 paid no federal income tax.

    The I.R.S. has never before disclosed that last fact.

    Not even Mr. Romney, with reported 2010 income of $21.7 million, qualifies for membership in this select group of 400. But the data provides a window into the financial lives and tax rates of the superrich. Since the I.R.S. doesn’t release data for the tiny percentage of Americans at Mr. Romney’s income level, the 400 are the closest proxy.”

    /snip

    Now, why would the IRS, which cannot release individual taxpayer information, decide to release for the first time in its history aggregate data designed to show that there are some super high income taxpayers that don’t pay tax? And time it so it comes out right after Reid’s attack on Romney?

    Now I know what you (well, seif, Fabmax and Caljn anyway) have to say: It’s tin-foil hat stuff; the IRS wouldn’t manipulate data releases for political purposes.

    No, I guess not.

    http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/granule/FR-2010-11-10/2010-28316/content-detail.html

  134. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [135] shore,

    Personally, I need Obama re-elected. I am working on a book idea that depends on it. And my practice couldn’t hurt from the pogroms that the Obamunists are gonna launch after election day.

  135. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [136] Shore – Perhaps this is all by RNC design? Let’s say that the collective PTB all realize that the next 4 years will be absolute crap. Maybe the best play is a massive effort at $$ raising and then not spending any of it, conceding the election and the blame for 8 years of crap results. Biden 2016? Pretty sure grim could beat him without raising any money.

    “The guy is throwing the presidency away without even trying. Obama does not even need to script anything against Mittens. He is providing Obama all the ammo he needs.

    ”Yup. My wallet is now closed to Mitt and the GOP the rest of this year. Mitt will need to waste his own money. Im going to go to dinner a few times instead of giving it to him.

  136. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [138] expat,

    Proof of that came when Ryan became the nominee. Had nearly the same reaction I did when I first heard the name Sarah Palin, except in Palin’s case I also said “Who???”

  137. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Interesting. Apparently there is now so much interest in this number that the Federal Register makes it one-stop shopping.

    https://www.federalregister.gov/quarterly-publication-of-individuals-who-have-chosen-to-expatriate

    Note to wealthy: If you haven’t got that second citizenship yet, it may be too late.

  138. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    And if you can’t get out of the country, you can at least Bug Out to your nompound in style:

    http://autos.yahoo.com/news/conquest-vehicles-reveals-the-evade–its-new–gigantic-unarmored-suv-20120809.html

  139. chicagofinance says:

    That’s way out there…..looks like you’re partying with all of JJ’s Chaminade kids that are going to Delaware…..

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    August 11, 2012 at 5:47 pm
    [125] Expat, It’s Unionville-Chadds Ford School District (very blue ribbony) and I believe that they bus. Our primary criteria was schools (and certain aspects in particular), and this area blew away everywhere else in the area except the Main Line.

  140. chicagofinance says:

    clot: this is just so inspiring…..
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3FMf99ep1s

  141. Shore Guy says:

    Romney blew it today. He was a governor, and Americans love electing governors — as they tend to be competent presidents. Unfortunately, he lacks meaningful national security and foreign relations experience. So, instead of selecting a veep candidate who would burnish the ticket’s background in these areas he selects a guy whose views will become fodder for commercials and bumper stickers that will do a job on Romney.

    For more frick’n years of the current disaster, following 8 years of the B
    ush disaster. I guess it is only about 7% of the time we have had presidents, still.

  142. Wow! This could be one particular of the most useful blogs We have ever arrive across on this subject. Basically Fantastic. I’m also an expert in this topic so I can understand your hard work.

  143. yo says:

    Roubini lost his credibility 3 years ago.He is like the Mayan calendar predicting end of the world.

  144. Morpheus says:

    congrats nom:

    stop boring us with a discussion of tax law. Lets talk more about your nompound. Since u have greater lines of sight, may I suggest upgrading your .223 to a AR-15 chambered in 5.56. I rec. at least a 20″ barrel.

    Since I am stuck in NJ and have limited lines of sight, I must have an AK-47. Availability of the unconverted saiga 7.62 x39 seems to have dried up. I guess I will have to wait till fall.

  145. Shore Guy says:

    Ryan pick misses the Marco

    Dems gear up to slam ‘polarizing’ Paul

    snip

    The conservative bloggers are saying this is now going to be an “election about ideas.” The problem is, are modern American voters ready for anything weightier than a debate over Bud Light vs. Coors Light? After all, 53 percent of this same electorate voted for Barack Obama in 2008. How bright can they possibly be?

    Adlai Stevenson, a Democrat, was once supposedly told by a supporter, “Every thinking person supports you.”

    “Yes,” Stevenson allegedly replied, “but the problem is, we need a majority.”

    snip

    http://www.bostonherald.com/news/columnists/view.bg?articleid=1061152513&srvc=home&position=emailed

  146. Njescapee says:

    GOP needs to concentrate on senate and congress. As I posted last year, Romney will be the “biggest loser” no doubt. GOP should begin to groom Bobby Jindal and Rubio for a challenge to Hillary in 2016.

  147. Shore Guy says:

    “GOP needs to concentrate on senate and congress.”

    Well, yes, but, one would think that a party that was going to do so would concentrate on nominating candidates who can attract votes outside the fringe of its own party. Instead, we, the GOP, seem intent on such “purity of essence” that we dill drive away anyone who might possibly attract votes from the middle or, gasp, the right of the Democrats.

    Now I know how members of the Whig party felt as they could foresee the collapse of their party.

  148. 3b says:

    #133 Jill: Thanks for the update on that, did not know. We have pretty much settled on WT, although I really do like Hillsdale with the train, and the nice down town, so if something pops up there we may still consider it.

  149. chicagofinance says:

    I’m in the middle, and I am voting against Obama. Obama is so bad that it makes me actually forget how repulsive the right is…….no matter, my vote is meaningless in NJ.

    Shore Guy says:
    August 12, 2012 at 9:53 am
    Well, yes, but, one would think that a party that was going to do so would concentrate on nominating candidates who can attract votes outside the fringe of its own party. Instead, we, the GOP, seem intent on such “purity of essence” that we dill drive away anyone who might possibly attract votes from the middle or, gasp, the right of the Democrats.

  150. Ben says:

    You have to wonder how Mitt managed to amass such money. From all the indicators I’ve gathered based on his speeches and interview, the guy is the village idiot.

  151. LoveNJ says:

    154 Ben

    Obama spends all his life only in villages, no business experience, no real responsibility to anyone (his wife supports family), not sure if he even does his own tax. He now lives in Whitehouse, with our tax money to spend. Good for his wife.

    He knows how to speak, because precisely he has no accountability to anything he says. You can not accuse him failing a business because he never managed one. You cannot accuse him taking away unemployed healthcare, because he either make promise or just give them with our tax money.

    I do not believe money grow in Romney’s yards. Anyhow, I want to be the village idiot like Romney, just do not know how. Any ideas?

  152. Ben says:

    Love, who said anything about Obama? Both Romney and Obama are completely worthless. There is no solution. The system is completely broken. We can’t even get more than 2 or 3 honest members into congress.

  153. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Four more years of economy stagnation as capital stays on strike. And no cure for economic collapse other than socialism or centrally planned economy.

    I had entertained hopes that the doomsayers were ill-informed. Now I am starting to believe they are right.

  154. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Shore,

    I think the only way back to power on the right is for the GOP to break up into 2 or 3 parties. One of those parties, in the form of a TEA or reform party, could pick up middle road dems and drive the dems leftward. The right parties could form a coalition for policy and president.

    A pipe dream though. More likely course is for a TEA or reform party to gain traction organically at state levels, and then support the Republican. That was the goal but it hasn’t happened yet.

  155. Njescapee says:

    GOP seems not to be competitive in national elections but has been doing well in local contests especially in the here in the South and in the Midwest. I have not voted for a winner since Reagan for his 2nd term.

  156. yo says:

    Capital was never on strike.There is no demand for new investments.Manufacturing has been stuck at 50 51 sentiments has been up and down.People have been paying off debt.Banks are just starting to lend again.Capital will always flow where it can make money,foreign or domestic investors.

  157. yo says:

    The so called middleclass,the spenders was on the decline.50% is classified as poor,do not pay federal tax.income for middleclass that still have jobs on the decline Who will buy this new investments?Last time I checked foreigners are buying homes,foreign,tourist are flocking the stores not Americans.

  158. yo says:

    Upward redistribution to upper 10% of top earners are the only ones doing fine in this economy and this are the ones with capital.Strengthen the middleclass and you will find customers for this capital.

  159. Jill says:

    3B #152: And we will be happy to have you. :-) The cake offer still stands, though it may be a crumb cake from B&W. Working 14 hours a day, 7 days a week doesn’t leave much time for baking.

  160. chicagofinance says:

    The End Is Nigh (Matrimonial Edition):

    HOKENDAUQUA, Pa. (AP) — Authorities say an eastern Pennsylvania woman stabbed her fiance to death during an argument on their wedding day.

    Na Cola Darcel Franklin is charged with criminal homicide in the death of 36-year-old Billy Rafeal Brewster in their Whitehall Township apartment.

    Police say they found Brewster bleeding shortly after 2 a.m. Saturday. District Attorney Jim Martin says he was pronounced dead at a hospital.

    The (Allentown) Morning Call reports that at her video arraignment Saturday, the 31-year-old Franklin wept and choked out, “I did not kill him on purpose.”

    Neighbor Steve Engel says the pastor who was supposed to perform the ceremony came to the apartment building after being unable to reach the couple, and a number of people who were apparently going to the wedding also showed up throughout the day.

  161. Essex says:

    156. Romney’s problem is that he never sat on a board of directors, He never ran a business. He bought undervalued distressed places, Sold them at a profit. At this point it is a choice between Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum.

  162. Fabius Maximus says:

    “please give your definition of right and left?”

    There will be nothing left of the GOP after the right have finished with it!

  163. Fabius Maximus says:

    Wow I never thought he would pull the pin on that pick, bye bye Florida.
    But thinking about it ther is a damage limitation play here. Ryan will shore up the base and deliver MIt the 35% right, so it won’t be a rout.

    Mitt already walking back Ryans Budget.
    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/79622.html

  164. Fabius Maximus says:

    Mitts tax return I think break down three ways.

    The 2010 return showed up the 3mill Swiss account. If this is not on his earlier tax returns and he took part in the Amnesty he is toast.
    He claimed foreign tax credit carryback in all years back to 2007 suggests he has paid no tax since then.
    Son of boss, he is dancing on this with Marriot if he is on the hook for this in his personal returns again he again is toast,
    If anything comes out he may have to follow the Geitner precendednt and pay back outside the statute of limitations. That could get expensive.

  165. Fabius Maximus says:

    “matter, my vote is meaningless in NJ.”
    If you don’t like the fact that a vote in Iowa has more meaning than yours then move … :*)

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