Fewer monsters lurking in the shadows

From the WSJ:

Shadow Inventory: It’s Not as Scary as It Looks

The housing market is improving because there are more buyers chasing fewer homes. Skeptics of a housing bottom, however, often point to a scary set of numbers: the “shadow inventory” of potential foreclosures—the millions of mortgages that are either in foreclosure or in default.

It’s true that home prices are unlikely to see brisk gains once they do hit bottom because it will take years to absorb this glut. But will this phantom inventory derail the incipient housing bottom? Maybe not, say a number of housing analysts.

There are several reasons why the shadow inventory isn’t as scary as it sounds: It’s concentrated in a handful of markets—it isn’t inherently a national phenomenon. It is being offset by improved demand, particularly from investors. And the housing vacancy rate is low, a product of very little new home construction over the past few years that could counterbalance continued high inventories of foreclosed homes.

Barclays Capital estimates that at the end of May there were around 1.8 million mortgages in the foreclosure process and another 1.45 million where borrowers have missed at least three payments. That puts the total number of properties that could be repossessed and resold by banks at around 3.25 million mortgages.

If those homes hit the market all at once, housing would be in deep trouble. Last year, for example, there were 4.4 million sales of previously owned homes. The figure is still higher than any time before June 2009.

But it is down from a peak of 4.25 million in February 2010. And unless mortgage delinquencies begin to accelerate sharply, the shadow inventory won’t be growing. Barclays estimates that at the current rate, this figure could fall to around 2.4 million loans.

“The concept of a huge shadow inventory is preposterous,” says Christopher Thornberg, a housing economist with Beacon Economics in Los Angeles. “The number of mortgages in distress is way down from one year ago. It’s clear there are fewer distressed properties out there.”

Ms. Zelman published an in-depth research note earlier with the title: “Shining a bright light on the shadow: Why what’s lurking doesn’t concern us.” In it, she explains how it’s more important to focus on the pace at which foreclosures are being liquidated, and not the absolute number.

“Just like the Wizard of Oz, shadow inventory is not very intimidating once you pull back the curtain,” the report said. That isn’t to dismiss the magnitude of the problem and headwind it will continue to pose for any housing recovery, she wrote. “The bathtub is almost full, but the water has stopped rising, and we are most concerned with how fast it drains.”

This entry was posted in Economics, Foreclosures, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

142 Responses to Fewer monsters lurking in the shadows

  1. Essex says:

    BOO!

  2. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  3. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Haha. shadow inventory = loch ness monster.
    Will flood the market as soon as banks are forced to mark to market, which is never.

  4. Mikeinwaiting says:

    MBA Mortgage Applications: -4.5% vs. +1.8% last week. Thirty-year fixed mortgage rate with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) flat at 3.76

  5. raging bull jj says:

    Mortgages are not always related to home sales. Near me there is a huge vacation home market in Long Beach, Fire Island, Hamptons etc. and between flood insurance, higher investment property and vacation home rates I see around 50% of deals going through as cash. A mortgage is a lot of headache. Plus conforming mortgage usually cant be used. Also you can only write off two mortgages. I have a place in South Beach, a condo in Manhattan, a home in Garden City and a place in Southhampton I have to choose. Plus condo vacation homes are a big PITA with a mortgages. One property I may put a bid in is an estate sale near beach, one of few condos down there. I could get condo for 250k. Banks want 30-50% down on Condo, hardly any write-off on a 125K loan at 3.75%. Then I pay mortgage recording tax, appraisal fee, closing costs, bank attorney etc. plus estate sale most likely have to pay 2-4% higher as they just want it sold, and cash guarantees it. Plus if a condo is over 40% rented most banks wont touch it with ten foot pole. To say the health of certain towns is based on mortgages is foolish, all RE is local. Look at the Dakota apt coop in Manhattan, they do not allow mortgages, cash only sales. they claim it keeps out the riff raft.

    Mikeinwaiting says:
    August 15, 2012 at 8:00 am

    MBA Mortgage Applications: -4.5% vs. +1.8% last week. Thirty-year fixed mortgage rate with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) flat at 3.76

  6. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I wonder how many would-be buyers actually go to the trouble of researching the home indebtedness and mortgage delinquencies in their prospective neighborhoods. My guess is most look at the exterior maintenance of the surrounding houses and never check any further than that. A home inspection is thought to be a must, I would think a neighborhood financial inspection should be just as important.

  7. Fast Eddie says:

    The housing vacancy rate is low because those that want to sell can’t because they’re underwater. They’re hanging on by a thread. They’re making the monthly payment but nothing else is left. How do you measure this statistically? You can’t. It’ll be a generation in the abyss. Like I said yesterday, a 70k car sitting in the garage and a glum looking house is the telltale sign.

  8. Panama says:

    But February’s optimism is fading fast. One of the main reasons for this is what is referred to as a “shadow inventory” of houses, or foreclosed homes that remain on the market. And according to a recent report, an additional 1.25 million foreclosed homes are set to flood the market following a year-long investigation into lending practices.

  9. raging bull jj says:

    Also I looked at two bungalows one bought in 1995 for 100k and one bought in 1997 for 150K and both owners kept talking how I am stealing it if I buy for 50K less than peak 2007 prices and they are taken a loss.

    Fast Eddie says:
    August 15, 2012 at 9:18 am
    The housing vacancy rate is low because those that want to sell can’t because they’re underwater. They’re hanging on by a thread. They’re making the monthly payment but nothing else is left. How do you measure this statistically? You can’t. It’ll be a generation in the abyss. Like I said yesterday, a 70k car sitting in the garage and a glum looking house is the telltale sign.

  10. yo says:

    If i had to borrow money,where will i spend it?house or a car? I will put it in the car too. I will spend necessary repairs for the house nothing more.I will sell it at the market price that the buyer is willing to pay. Not to fix so i can sell for more money.

  11. yo says:

    HMI housing market index now in its highest since the recovery at 37 since march 2007

  12. Juice Box says:

    Double down?

    Billionaire John Paulson raised his stake in an exchange-traded fund tracking the price of gold while selling other stocks during the second quarter, leaving his $21 billion hedge fund with more than 44 percent of its U.S. traded equities tied to bullion.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-15/paulson-steps-up-gold-bet-to-44-of-firm-s-equity-assets.html

  13. raging bull jj says:

    You should never borrow money to spend on something that does not make money. If you cannot afford a car you cannot afford a loan on a car. If you cant afford to fix your house do it yourself or leave it alone, borrowing money to put in a depreciating asset is bad.

    WSJ article talked about couple yesterday who refinanced saved one thousand a month and use one thousand a month to replace two old cars with two new ones whose loans equal one thousand a month. How did they save money? The even took out five year loans on car. If they drove old POS cars for five more years till they died and put 1k a month extra towards mortgage principal they really would be better off. Instead five years from now once again they will have two used cars and a large mortgage.

    yo says:
    August 15, 2012 at 10:10 am

    If i had to borrow money,where will i spend it?house or a car? I will put it in the car too. I will spend necessary repairs for the house nothing more.I will sell it at the market price that the buyer is willing to pay. Not to fix so i can sell for more money.

  14. Statler Waldorf says:

    Yet another example of how the “mainstream” media carry water for Obama.

    What Joe Biden actually said yesterday, speaking of Romney:

    “He gonna put y’all back in chains.”

    Here is what the Washington Post claims Biden said:

    “They are going to put y’all back in chains.”

    http://tinyurl.com/bsekuyy

    Here’s what CNN claims Biden said:

    “He is going to put y’all back in chains.”

    politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/08/14/biden-romneys-wall-street-will-put-yall-back-in-chains/

    The New York Times, omits “he gonna” and fabricates out of thin air a quote of “put you all”:

    Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. created a stir Tuesday at a campaign speech in Virginia when he told the crowd that Mitt Romney’s policies would enable the banking and financial sectors to “put you all back in chains.”

    thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/14/biden-warns-romney-policies-would-put-crowd-back-in-chains

    If not for the Internet, and video websites such as youtube, the public would have no idea they were being conned by the media, and most people still don’t.

  15. seif says:

    15 – wah, wah, wah

  16. seif says:

    it is the same media that has anointed paul ryan a “fiscal conservative”…which couldn’t be further from the truth.

  17. Libtard in the City says:

    Who cares.

    I think I’ll depart to return some time in December. How’s that war in Afghanistan going? Still waiting for the positive impact of the Porkulous. Sheep. All of you. Baa. Baa.

  18. Ragnar says:

    I enjoyed O’Donnell’ 10 minute special report on Ayn Rand last night on CNBC. Ryan’s claim about not understanding Rand had a philosophy isn’t credible, but is understandable. Religious people are accustomed to ignoring contradictions between their faith and reason/truth.

  19. Anon E. Moose says:

    NE [3];

    Will flood the market as soon as banks are forced to mark to market, which is never.

    *Nodding agreement*

  20. seif says:

    we can’t all be as wise as you…dedicating our life to seeing how many pennies we can pinch every step of the way. politics is sports…why do you waste all that time prattling on about hockey? you enjoy it. some of us enjoy the sport of politics. don’t be so holier-than-thou.

  21. yo says:

    agreed!!

    raging bull jj says:

    August 15, 2012 at 10:33 am

    You should never borrow money to spend on something that does not make money. If you cannot afford a car you cannot afford a loan on a car. If you cant afford to fix your house do it yourself or leave it alone, borrowing money to put in a depreciating asset is bad.

    WSJ article talked about couple yesterday who refinanced saved one thousand a month and use one thousand a month to replace two old cars with two new ones whose loans equal one thousand a month. How did they save money? The even took out five year loans on car. If they drove old POS cars for five more years till they died and put 1k a month extra towards mortgage principal they really would be better off. Instead five years from now once again they will have two used cars and a large mortgage.

  22. Ragnar says:

    Libtard,
    What would your top 3 political policy changes be? Particular to economic/fiscal issues. Please be specific.
    Not being sarcastic, just genuinely curious.

  23. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Juice 12 saw that earlier today in my reading & 14 Soros also, me thinks QE is in the bag and/or a war. Both good for gold.

  24. Anon E. Moose says:

    Fast Eddie [7];

    They’re making the monthly payment but nothing else is left. How do you measure this statistically? You can’t.

    You measure it by when the consumer-driven economy bounces back.

    I said years ago that the meme “Economy is down becuase house prices are down” was BS and got it bass ackwards. That gets the cause and effect reversed. In 2005 when everything and then some was going to pay the mortgage, it sucked up all the oxygen in the room. There was nothing left for discretionary spending, esp. big ticket items like vacations, etc. HEW made up some of the difference, but that gravy train since went off the rails.

    For now, people who took leave of their senses are shoring up their balance sheets. When people can buy a house and still have some money left over, the consumer economy will recover. That means lower house prices are *GASP* good for the economy. HOOCOODANODE?

  25. yo says:

    I will agree more with Buffett about energy sector picking up as the economies of the world picks up.Specially oil and refineries

  26. Statler Waldorf says:

    I dislike media bias in all flavors; but apparently factual reporting isn’t a concern for some.

  27. Statler Waldorf says:

    To be clear, this is quoting someone’s words (controversial words) and there should be no errors by any “news” organizations in accurately quoting what was said.

  28. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [15] statler,

    I just watched MSNBC raise the chains quote with one of the Obamunists at DNC. The DNCer basically ignored the question and launched into a diatribe on Romney/Ryan.

    Did the reporter come back to ask him to answer the question, which was the topic of the segment? I’ll let you hazard a guess as to that.

    I’ve noticed that MSNBC will devote time to an issue that the WH would rather be ignored if it is hot enough that it can’t be ignored. But by and large, it is lip service and softball questions when they do.

  29. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [15] seif,

    Sorry but some of us don’t limit our news sources to Chris “Tingles” Matthews, Red Ed, and firedoglake.com.

    Try to get out more often.

  30. Mikeinwaiting says:

    seif 21 like lib I do not care for the whole bunch of crooks on both sides & do have some ideas on policy but never going to happen. It is the lesser of two evils in my estimation, you can debate which is which. I do however like lib get a little fed up with ideologies prattling back & forth the party taking points. You have posted pretty hard left I do not see you looking at this cycle as a source of enjoyment/entertainment in an objective manner.

  31. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [21] seif,

    I used to say that it isn’t a sport if you get points from judges for style. That said, I guess I can concur that politics is a sport: You have a winner and a loser after a contest.

    Of course, by this standard, war is a sport.

  32. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Just met with the moving estimator. They said that they could move my guns but not my ammo.

    We’re gonna need a bigger truck.

  33. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    E. Money,

    Did you check your email? What did you think of the Nompound?

  34. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [6] expat,

    Our agent in PA did exactly that and when she gave us a list of houses in our screen, she pointed out that a number in one particular subdivision were in F/C. Needless to say, we didn’t look there.

  35. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Nom 34 need another price, my guy is very reasonable.

  36. seif says:

    29 – Nom…which is it that bothers you? the original point was that the quote was incorrect. If it was then I think we can all agree that the proper quotes are what should be used. You have now expounded on people “ignoring the story.” What story? This is a non-story…like “you didn’t build that.” Hold it, hug it, love it…this kind of crap is what get when there is no substance.

  37. seif says:

    31 – not sure what you are trying to say…does something have to be viewed completely objectively to be enjoyed for entertainment or enjoyment?

  38. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [6] expat,

    There are so many things to check that most buyers don’t think of. We look at the HOA documents if there is an HOA. We check out the neighborhood and try to get a sense of who lives there. We look on Google Earth and try to see what is in the neighborhood or just over the hill (that has dinged a lot of houses). If there is undeveloped land nearby, we may look at whether the property is zoned commercial or residential. We haven’t but could ask for development plans. We look at traffic patterns, not just on the street where the house is, but in the surrounding areas that will affect our commute. I even look at hydrology features and topography.

    Even with all that work, we make mistakes. I made the mistake of buying a house at the top of the “T” in an intersection. Something I knew intrinsically but I saw the house in daytime and traffic is generally low. But if I saw it at night, I’d be wealthier today.

  39. raging bull jj says:

    A modern American financial innovation came from Lee Iacocca, and his ‘56 for 56′ deal. Back in 1956, with a 20% down payment, and a 56 dollar monthly payment for three years, he’d sell you a car. It was a huge hit. A prime example of enticing the individual to take on debt. It was a huge hit because it was a debt level the individual could and would service.”

    Lee Iccoca created concept of leverage, well the bubbles that came from that little concept popped almost as hard as his exploding Ford Pintos.

  40. Libtard in the City says:

    Ragnar,

    The problem here is that there is no such thing as a positive policy change with the lobbyist model in place. It is foolish for one to believe that this government represents any of us. The only policy change that makes sense is the one that Clot espouses. Vote with a bullet.

    There is no such thing as campaign finance reform. There is no such thing as stimulus. There is no such thing as representation.

    Do you think the average republican is against abortion???

    Do you think Obama gives a krap about solar power???

    You could turn the entire economy around by closing loopholes and making corporations pay their fair share.

    You could actually penalize the crooks on Wall Street. Sh1t, the rating agencies should have been shut down after the CDO debacle. But no, we continue to claim that Obama would be better than Romney. The only thing that matters to these clowns is the continued looting of the middle class and the stripping of social services from the lower class. And the continued enrichment of the upper class.

    You could actually imprison half of congress and the senate.

    Yet the vast majority cheers for these non-representatives as if they think one is better than the next. It’s like reality TV. It lacks one thing. Reality.

    Baa baa.

    And SEIF, I am the worst sport fan of all. I actually understand that it’s a business. I’m the biggest Devil fan around, but I know they are moving. And I don’t blame them. The whole concept of ice hockey in Newark is as stupid as a day care center in Alpine.

    But go ahead and waste your time concerning yourself with the VP pick. You can be rest assured that both Biden and Ryan are laughing at you. They can get an interest-free mortgage, or bounce a check or inside trade, or not pay their taxes. You can not! One thing is for sure. They’re all going to reap the greatest benefits of society while systematically reducing yours. Rah, rah, shishboombaa, baa. Holier than thou? Not! I’m just not a fool.

  41. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [38] seif,

    Would it be a non-story if Romney said anything even remotely touched by a racial tinge? Why isn’t this Biden’s Macaca moment?

    I think we know the answer to that. Spinning doesn’t change it.

    And the analysis of “you didn’t build that” is correct; the spin from the WH fails the BS meter and fails it badly. That is why the BS story about the private sector not building roads and bridges went away so fast (and, curiously, it is the private sector that builds roads and bridges—DOT doesn’t maintain a road building division). Obama feels, as Warren feels, that there are no self-made people (and in Warren’s case, she made very clear that you owe the goverment a greater cut for your success).

  42. Mikeinwaiting says:

    August 15, 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index: 37 vs. 35 expected, 35 previous. Components reflecting current sales conditions/traffic, and 6-month expectations all rose to their highest levels in 5 years. Builders, however, are frustrated with (in their view!) inaccurate appraisals and difficult access to credit for homebuyers.

  43. Ernest Money says:

    seif (21)-

    It’s war, sheep. Us against all of them.

    Nice to see your mental defective VP has already sunk to race-baiting. He actually makes the Waffen SS thug Ryan seem stable.

    “we can’t all be as wise as you…dedicating our life to seeing how many pennies we can pinch every step of the way. politics is sports…why do you waste all that time prattling on about hockey? you enjoy it. some of us enjoy the sport of politics. don’t be so holier-than-thou.”

  44. Libtard in the City says:

    Seif,

    Biden claimed his plane was show down over Afghanistan (maybe it was Iraq, but it doesn’t matter). He actually simply had engine trouble. He is a liar!!!! Yet you worry about what he says? About the other party?

    Fool!

  45. Ernest Money says:

    I’m pretty sure that PX90 guy Tony Horton being on the Today show this AM talking about his friendship with Ryan is an excellent sign of the impending apocalypse.

  46. seif says:

    42 – Fair enough.

    “They’re all going to reap the greatest benefits of society while systematically reducing yours.”

    I totally agree with you on that statement. I wouldn’t say I am concerned with the VP pick…I was (trying) to point out that the media misrepresents on both sides. It is all bought and paid for by someone…and that is disheartening.

  47. Ernest Money says:

    mikey (24)-

    According to the BBC, they have a document from a high-ranking Israeli, indicating that they will attack Iran before November 6. Plan is to force Bojangles to join in the fray.

  48. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Money,

    Got your email. Yes, PA is a wine wasteland. When I lived in Philly, I stocked up in Delaware which, with the exception of Moore Bros., is also a wasteland (I swear that Yellow Tail passes for grand cru in Del.) I cleared out the trunk and will see you after the game.

  49. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [48] seif,

    “I was (trying) to point out that the media misrepresents on both sides. It is all bought and paid for by someone…and that is disheartening.”

    Wow, a rare moment of agreement.

  50. Anon E. Moose says:

    Nom [34];

    We’re gonna need a bigger truck.

    You laugh… My brother just moved cross-country. They couldn’t get the semi to his house. He’s down a hill at the bottom of a cul-de-sac — not a conventional bubble cul-de-sac but one with a 50-ft grassy island in the middle. Another 20ft rise up his driveway to the grage level — then up to the first floor.

    Between the center island and question about getting the truck to climb the hill once loaded, they they arrange a box truck to shuttle stuff from his house to the semi at the top of the cul-de-sac. Then they boxed out the semi, and had to call in another. Amazing the crap you acquire in just 10 years or so in one place.

    Glad the company relo was picking up that bill.

  51. Ernest Money says:

    plume (35)-

    What sort of fortifications do you have in mind?

  52. Libtard in the City says:

    Seif,

    Fox says what their rabid fools want to hear. It sells more Franklin Mint Coin sets.

    MSNBC says what their rabid fools want to hear. It sells more Subarus.

    CNN says a little of what both want to hear. It sells more retractable awnings.

    Ultimately, the real news can not be found anywhere but between the lines. And I am far from being a conspiracy theorist. I just want my hammock in Costa Rica or Belize to retire to. I’m cheap because it is a means to an end. I like to play sports because I get a rush from adrenaline and it keeps me healthy. I can’t remember the last time I paid more than $15 to attend a sporting event.

  53. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [50] redux,

    When I lived in Philly about 6 years ago, the Liquor Board got a new head, and he decided to reform the image of the stores and get some decent wines into PA.

    Made a big media splash and he had some success in terms of getting a few decent bottles, increasing revenues, and improving the state store image, but, eventually the bureaucracy and assembly got out the long knives and he was unceremoniously dumped.

    That’s what you get when you put government in charge. Crappy selection and high prices. If I were Moore Bros., I’d move my stores closer to the PA line, the way Total Wine does (and I now hate Total—they sell nothing but cat p1ss).

  54. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [54] libtard,

    Actually, on Fox, it sells more catheters, and on Fox Business, it sells more gold coins.

  55. Ernest Money says:

    plume, Stateline Liquors in Maryland is a good store, too.

    Prefer the DE Moore Bros, though.

  56. Mikeinwaiting says:

    seif 39 “completely objective” lol, you are carrying so much water for the Dem side of the crook equation that it would make Gunga Din proud. And yes Biden DID stepped in it (what else is new) & nom is correct they would have crucified Mitt for similar transgression.
    PS love Joe B. every-time he talks I am just waiting for him to say something completely absurd, now that’s entertainment.

  57. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [52] moose,

    I have that issue at the rental house. I don’t see how they are getting a semi with a 50 ft. trailer up that street, let alone the driveway. They already have to send a feeder truck to the storage unit. They might as well not unload it into a trailer but bring it straight down.

    I figure I will have to make a couple of trips with whatever my next large vehicle is (SUV goes off lease in two weeks and I am not renewing). Gotta bring down the wine collection which may be 8-10 cases and my bar, another couple of cases. Then there’s the ammo, my gasoline reserve, and household chemicals. Even nail polish is on the Do Not Pack list.

  58. seif says:

    58 – you misread that. read it again. read what i said…not what you wanted to hear. and answer the question, if you will.

  59. Ernest Money says:

    Joe Biden is a deranged, lying sack of shit. He is not funny; he is pathetic.

  60. Ernest Money says:

    plagiarist, too…

  61. Ernest Money says:

    seif, I’m pretty sure no one here really wants to join your 24/7 circle jerk.

  62. Mikeinwaiting says:

    49 Clot I will mark my calender, that would be a disaster.

  63. Ragnar says:

    Nom,
    “you didn’t build that” is taught all the time beginning in elementary school. That’s why they replaced History with “social studies” in the curriculum. Remember HRC’s “It takes a Village”? Nobody’s responsible for their success or failure, we’re all in this together, no man is an island. The Big O thought this was non-controversial, as we are already in the post – individualist era as far as he’s concerned. The whole world is now being turned into the human centipede, connected mouth to rear.

  64. Libtard in the City says:

    I will say this. I’m looking forward to Sheriff Hoggs RNC speech. I don’t agree with a lot of his policies, but find his off the cuff style enjoyable. What a shame that his party recognized him as a future talent. Before then, he was actually helping bring about some really needed changes to NJ. Now that he’s recognized, he has to follow the Republican playbook and is no different than the carnival of corrupt Dems that served before him.

  65. Marilyn says:

    Comrade, you should have been a comedian!! You make me laugh!! Your a riot!! I come hear just to read your stuff!

  66. seif says:

    63 – that’s okay. i still send love to your wounded soul, my poor, hurting brother.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLEtGRUrtJo

  67. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [58] mike,

    I’m waiting for Biden to start a sentence with “I’ve got half a mind to . . . .”

    http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0081182/bio

    I remember when Biden was diagnosed with brain cancer and had surgery. It was on the news. He also had an aneurysm repaired. But, curiously, when I went to find a link to the brain cancer story, I didn’t find anything from a mainstream news source, just some stories about the aneurysm.

    This isn’t the first time that I recalled a news story with decent clarity and well after the fact looked it up on the web, only to find no record of it. One time, right after Bush was elected, the democrats held a presser and said that they weren’t going to cooperate with an illegitimate president. I recall being pretty shocked by the tone and I also recall Lieberman speaking at the press conference, which I also found unusual. So it stuck in my memory vividly. But when I tried to research it later, no mention of it on the internet.

    Conspiracy or simply poor searching and lack of info on line? At this point, hard to say.

  68. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [67] Marilyn,

    Thanks, I think. Imagine if I was trying to be funny.

    (oh, and the restraining order says you have to stay 200 ft away).

  69. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [63] money,

    “seif, I’m pretty sure no one here really wants to join your 24/7 circle jerk.”

    But if anyone does, it’s being televised on Current TV.

  70. seif says:

    71 – you know all the liberal media websites, tv stations, etc. without a doubt, you view and read more of them than I do. you are endlessly quoting what you saw on cnbc. a serious case of envy. I don’t know what channel current is or if i even get it.

    interesting to say the least: the two guys who talk about being locked away in their compounds (even sending each other pictures “hey, how does mine look?”) and constantly talking about their guns and firing ammo…joking about “circle jerks.”

    PAGING DR. FREUD…DR. FREUD PLEASE

  71. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Clot 61 I take it much more lightly than you.
    Seif what clot said in post”63″.

  72. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [65] ragnar,

    The sentiment by itself is harmless and more or less true. As I pointed out before, Tip O’Neill used to use a similar example when he gave speeches before business and trade groups.

    But Obama’s choice of words, and the subject of the larger speech, go beyond the “we are all in this together” meme. It was a direct shot at the idea of the self-made man, and sounded in the Warren campaign meme.

    ““There is nobody in this country who got rich on his own. Nobody,” Warren said. “You built a factory out there? Good for you. But I want to be clear: You moved your goods to market on the roads the rest of us paid for. You hired workers the rest of us paid to educate. You built a factory, and it turned into something terrific or a great idea: God bless. Keep a big hunk of it. But part of the underlying social contract is you take a hunk of that and pay forward for the next kid who comes along.”

    My reaction to this was: Okay, who paid??? The “rest of us”? Really? BTW, what was reported at the time but not since was that the speech was about why the wealthy should be taxed more, at least more than this:
    http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43373

    Oh, and by the way, to follow on Statler’s theme, the above quote came from an ABC News site but appears to be selectively edited. Here is the vid:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOyDR2b71ag

    I especially loved the quote about the maurading hordes. Any businessman who has experienced union thuggery and the Chrysler and GM bondholders must have felt the bile creeping up when they heard that quote.

  73. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [72] seif,

    When you seen him, ask Freud about your anger and envy issues.

    And thanks for the unintended compliment. I do consider myself to be better informed than you. Thanks for recognizing it.

  74. seif says:

    73 – only fitting that you misquote me on a day when people are whining about the media note quoting something properly.

  75. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [61] money,

    We need Joe Biden. If Ryan were Veep, where would comedians get their material?

  76. seif says:

    75 – let’s hear more of the comedy; what do you believe me to be envious of?

  77. Mikeinwaiting says:

    By the way this is 24/7 RE circle jerk.

  78. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [76] seif,

    Okay, the judge says you also have to stay back 200 feet.

  79. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [78] seif,

    Primarily, the wealth and success of others. Naturally, I expect you to deny it. But when you reduce the arguments about class warfare and economics and politics, etc. to its irreducible core, it’s all about envy. An envy born of necessity at times, but envy nonetheless.

    You also said I’m envious. I will certainly admit to some envy now and then, but let’s hear you postulate on what (or who) you believe I am envious of? (BTW, it isn’t you. Trust me on that).

  80. Ragnar says:

    Last night I saw a Big O advertisement. It said Romney made 20million, paid only 14% income tax, so he paid less tax than you.

    Most people paid more than $2.8 million in income taxes?
    Last I heard, about half the people pay no income taxes or receive free money for just filling in the forms.

    I’m sure seif paid more than $2.8 million in 2010, for the good of the community.

    Not that I’m a big Romney fan.

  81. Libtard in the City says:

    Mike (79):

    “By the way this is 24/7 RE circle jerk.”

    Yup.

  82. bp says:

    Can someone give me the contact information of the Housing inspector that this site has been recommending? I think Comrade had originally provided the contact information. And I think the name of the Inspector is Inspector Urb – something like that. Thanks

  83. Jill says:

    3b: That Beech St. house is still showing as for sale. Maybe the attorney review fell through? Might be worth a call …

  84. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [84] bp

    It’s the uber inspector, and no, I did not use him. Don’t know him.

    I consider most inspectors to be morons. The one that inspected my house for the relo company missed so much, it wasn’t funny, but dinged other things that were completely erroneous findings and we got them removed.

    If you are a buyer, you want an inspector that the realtors tell you is a “deal killer.” In fact, I’d find a list of people to use, run them by the realtor, and go with the guy that he/she says “oh, you don’t want to use him.”

    Also, you may want to go with a structural engineer instead, or at least a HI that has that background. Any moron can flip on lights, but you want someone to look at the crack in the drywall and tell you the foundation is shifting.

    And don’t just look at the house. If there are trees or extensive vegetation, get an arborist as well. Hell, tell them you are the homeowner and that you want an estimate for work.

  85. Mikeinwaiting says:

    bp -www.AFullHouseInspection.com, just used the best

  86. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [73] mike

    I know clot. I don’t think he takes anything seriously.

    Back to the salt mine.

  87. Libtard in the City says:

    Uber Inspector told to me to have a tree cut down. It did not. It fell on my house. ‘Nuff said. Peter Bennett is the deal breaker. Wait until you see his report.

  88. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Nom “Pete” the urber inspector is no moron: sharp, through & not lacking in social skills.

  89. bp says:

    Comrade, thanks so very much for the advice. Very much appreciated. Will do that. Also thanks for the name of the inspector. I remember reading that this inspector does an excellent job and finds a lot of things that others miss out.

  90. Mikeinwaiting says:

    lib you should see mine LOL bought it anyway at that price you shut up & fix it. Closing any day now last minute bull getting taken care of by lawyers, Friday I would bet.

  91. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Must spell check but what else is new.

  92. Mikeinwaiting says:

    nom 88 just playing with Chip, I know.

  93. bp says:

    Mikeinwaiting and Libtard, thanks so much for the contact information. I have been reading and very occasionally posting on this website. Reading this website from the time that Grim actually created it. Finally after all these years are going for a house. Will post more once it is out of attorney review.

  94. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Ragnar 82 saw that also ran the numbers in my head wow that is some piece of change. Now Mitt’s team should run the I payed 2.8 mil in taxes last year add, O bother.

  95. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Time to hit the salt mines myself, cheers all.

  96. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I don’t watch any of the cable news channels. Sky News from the UK does a pretty fair job and looks good on screen if you have the bandwidth:

    http://wwitv.com/tv_channels/b5791.htm

  97. Ernest Money says:

    This blog can’t have too many human centipede references.

  98. Ernest Money says:

    plume (88)-

    I think I could take seif, a bucket of water and a car battery pretty seriously.

    “I know clot. I don’t think he takes anything seriously.”

  99. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Brief back from the salt mine for this.

    It starts. There will be more.

    http://news.yahoo.com/gunman-shoots-guard-james-dobson-groups-dc-office-162608078–abc-news-politics.html

  100. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    okay, back for one more.

    This is just embarrassing for this guy: an example of “my karma ran over your dogma.”

    http://news.yahoo.com/hungary-far-leader-discovers-jewish-roots-155354165.html

    BTW, has anyone heard from seif? Well, can’t wait up. . . back to work.

  101. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [100] money,

    Oh come on, don’t let the trolls get under your skin.

    Let’s put him in a Mackems shirt, ducttape his hands and mouth, and drop him at the next Toon Army NYC game watch.

  102. cobbler says:

    nom [59]
    Don’t drive your gas reserve to PA, use it up here and refill with fresh when there. First, it is unsafe, and second, the gas goes bad unless it is a special DOD spec long-term storage grade.

  103. Ernest Money says:

    Syracuse, NY circling the drain.

    Without a doubt Syracuse, New York is headed for bankruptcy. Not only is there an “official denial” but the mayor of Syracuse is seeking legal guidance on municipal bankruptcy.

    Once again, public union wages and benefits, especially police and firefighters’ pensions are smack in the midst of it.

    “Please consider this news headline which I openly mock: Expert says bankruptcy for Syracuse is unlikely, but mayor should explore option”

    Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/08/syracuse-new-york-headed-for-bankruptcy.html#keIig434HwXZBf3g.99

  104. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [104] cobbler,

    I do use it up, and with the price increases and need to recirculate, it’s mostly gone because I haven’t replenished stock for that very reason. But it may be worth while to fill those jugs when I make that last trip over the Scudder Falls bridge.

    Also, it will make more sense to stockpile some. Where I will be is not that close to gas stations. So when the wife brings back the car on fumes, as she does periodically . . . .

  105. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Oh snap. That hope and change thing has some unintended consequences:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fear-loathing-one-percent-165400847.html

    I love the dem logic in this: Those dirty rich aren’t spending enough, so we should tax them more.

  106. BallsandChain says:

    Anyone have a good landlord-tenant lawyer in Bergen county they can recommend?

  107. Ragnar says:

    Comrade,
    Any discussion of economics which centers around “demand” is totally worthless. True economic demand is a consequence, a derivative, of economic production. Any economic policy of long term benefit has to focus on the growth of economic production.
    Keynesian and Monetarist policies that focus on demand stimulation are the economics of a heroin addict, always looking for that next rush while accelerating the physical deterioration.

  108. yo says:

    The 1% agree not the lobbyist like the Tea Party!!

    “Many Democrats might argue that all of this moat-building and cash hoarding and community-shunning by the rich is exactly why we should tax them more. They say the lack of mass consumer demand is the reason the wealthy aren’t investing and creating jobs. At least the government would deploy that capital into the economy, rather than keep it under a Vividus mattress, they argue.

    Most One Percenters agree with them – at least when it comes to higher taxes. The survey found that 62 percent of One Percenters are in favor of an income-tax increase. More than half say the increase should be imposed on people making $500,000 or more (basically themselves).

    Another 31 percent say it should be imposed on filers making more than $250,000 – basically the Obama cut-off.

    Only 25 percent think the income cut-off should be $1 million.

    Taylor said that it’s the uncertainty over tax policy – rather than higher taxes themselves – that is most affecting the spending and investing of the wealthy. He said this reality stands in stark contrast to the public perception that greed is preventing compromise in Washington.

    “All of this antagonism that is being created is not the fault of the people Obama says are being greedy,” Taylor says. “If there is resistance to tax increases it’s coming from others – perhaps lobbyists or Tea Party people or consultants. The One Percent accept the reality.”

    And they also understand, perhaps, the need for self-preservation. “

  109. raging bull jj says:

    I live in a modest house and drive a used car. Ruby Tuesday is as fancy as I go.

    I save 75% of my income. I can’t spend it on anything. Back in 1986 the rich wore rolexs, had armani suits and drove fancy cars. Today I see CEOs show up to work in clothes from Kohls, timex watches and on the subway. The rich cant spend. Of course they are saving more.

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    August 15, 2012 at 2:25 pm

    Oh snap. That hope and change thing has some unintended consequences:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fear-loathing-one-percent-165400847.html

    I love the dem logic in this: Those dirty rich aren’t spending enough, so we should tax them more.

  110. cobbler says:

    Ragnar [109]
    Any discussion of economics which centers around “demand” is totally worthless. True economic demand is a consequence, a derivative, of economic production. Any economic policy of long term benefit has to focus on the growth of economic production.

    Had you by chance interned at the Soviet Gosplan in the 1980s? The concept seems to be coming right out of the Politburo minutes…

  111. Blonde Pilot says:

    This is the story of the blonde flying in a two-seater airplane with just the pilot.
    He has a heart attack and dies. She, frantic, calls out a May Day.
    “May Day! May Day! Help me! Help me! My pilot had a heart attack and is dead.
    I don’t know how to fly. Help me! Please help me!”
    She hears a voice over the radio saying:
    “This is Air Traffic Control, and I have you loud and clear. I will talk you through this and get you back on the ground. I have had a lot of experience with this kind of problem.
    ‘Now, just take a deep breath. Everything will be fine! Now give me your height and position.”
    She says, “I’m 5’ 4″ and I support Obama.”
    “O.K.”… says the voice on the radio …
    “Repeat after me: Our Father, who art in heaven …”

  112. Ragnar says:

    cobbler,
    Try to think hard and grasp the difference between economic and uneconomic production. Krugman cannot grasp the difference, so I wouldn’t expect you be able to either. But here’s an explanation just for the record.

    A sustainably growing economy is built upon a multitude of economic projects yielding profits that provide a return above the cost of capital funding it. Such projects are involved in economic production (producing goods & services worth more than their input costs).

    In contrast, the uneconomic “production” of the Soviet era had much in common with the Keynesian ditch digging/refilling activities. Producing goods worth less than their inputs, and consuming capital and savings.

    The Keynesian economic textbook writers of the 1960s -80s, blind like Krugman, failed to note the difference between economic and uneconomic production, and thus expected the Soviet economy to surpass the US economy in but a few decades.

  113. Ann says:

    I posted this on the other thread by mistake:

    I’m surprised to hear people think there is no good inventory in Bergen County. I’m seeing tons of nice stuff at bargain prices, at least compared to the late 2007 prices I remember. Maybe the towns we are looking at are in different areas. Lots of nice starter homes in our town as well for around 300K, maybe under.

    Of course the flip side of this is that we bought in 2008 and our own value has dropped too much to make a move up appealing, boo. Wish we had rented and kept our cash, that’s for sure.

    (7) There are also a lot of people (like myself ) who bought during the boom who aren’t underwater and can easily make their payments, but can’t move now because the cash numbers don’t make sense. I mentioned this the other day, but I really think the “move up buyer” is dead in BC, for a long long time, forever probably. I talked to quite a few realtors when we were trying to make our decision and their line now is “If you move up, you’ll get more house for the money, interest rates are low, it’s a great time to buy!” Which is true, IF you have the cash to “absorb the loss of equity.”

  114. gryffindor says:

    Today I was thinking about the Uber Inspector and apparently bp also was. Thanks for the info. I’m thinking about buying in NJ more seriously this time than from our Gold Coast this past winter. There is a house near my business. The last contract fell through because of home inspection, but from what we can tell, the problems can be remedied. It looks like something that could be affordable, livable, and rentable.

  115. Libtard in the City says:

    After my hockey clinic late last night my carpool partner and I were super hungry. We decided to hit Sonic on the way home for a cheeseburger as they claim to have a 24-hour drive thru window. Although all the lights were on and there were plenty of workers inside, they claimed to be closed when I drove up to the drive-thru. I’m fairly sure there were some lazy minimum wage workers inside getting paid to hang out on 3rd shift. We obviously need to increase the minimum wage. Right Krugman?

  116. Long time lurker says:

    About #108

    Ronald Schwartz 50 Main Street Hackensack 201 342 3626

    I have used him twice and family has use him. All around nice & decent sharp guy.
    Also good hearted – a lot of pro-bono work for people that truly needed.

  117. Ernest Money says:

    lib (117)-

    Future leaders of the Dumbocrat party.

  118. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [110] yo,

    Why shouldn’t they agree? At the end of the day, they aren’t paying it, the guys with earned income are.

  119. raging bull jj says:

    You should compare them to 1999 prices. Pre bubble. Saying they are at good prices based on 2007 prices is like saying Cisco Stock is a bargain compared to March 10, 2000 prices.

    Ann says:
    August 15, 2012 at 3:40 pm

    I posted this on the other thread by mistake:

    I’m surprised to hear people think there is no good inventory in Bergen County. I’m seeing tons of nice stuff at bargain prices, at least compared to the late 2007 prices I remember. Maybe the towns we are looking at are in different areas. Lots of nice starter homes in our town as well for around 300K, maybe under.

  120. Ragnar says:

    Lib,
    If you had demanded service you they probably would have done really naughty things to your burger, so it’s for the best that you left. Like the way JJ pokes holes in the onion rings.

  121. Mikeinwaiting says:

    “Though today’s numbers – inflation quiet, business activity down – may point to the need for the Fed to stimulate demand further, it’s running up against the political calender, writes Kathleen Madigan. At most, the September FOMC meeting may issue hint of action, but policy is likely on hold until December.”

  122. Mikeinwaiting says:

    JJ 121 beat me to it.

  123. BallsandChain says:

    #118 Long time lurker:

    Many thanks for the info. Sounds like a good guy.

  124. BallsandChain says:

    #118 Long time lurker: (again)

    What do ya know…he is retired! Thanks for the info anyway.

  125. raging bull jj says:

    well got to leave soon, the folks down in DC has summoned me to help with this crisis. I always something to interupt my blogging

  126. chicagofinance says:

    Please give credit where credit is due……my wife found Das Uberinspektor….and she used him to vet our RENTAL…..he even told our landlord stuff he didn’t know…..back then he would go north of Middlesex County, but I guess to fill his calendar, he has cast a wider net. That said, I am shocked that he isn’t booked 24/7.

  127. chicagofinance says:

    then he would NOT go north of Middlesex County

  128. cobbler says:

    libtard [117]
    I don’t see the link between Sonic employees refusing to serve you a burger and Krugman. Though, the company will be better off if it employed fewer people at a higher wage – they would value their job and be nicer to the customers (and also produce revenue rather than just get paid peanuts for doing nothing). I never understood the obsession of many business owners – both mom and pop and corporates – with wages they pay instead of the productivity they are getting in exchange.

  129. cobbler says:

    Ragnar [114]
    Your writing makes fairly little sense… Demand is what makes the production economical or uneconomical, because it determines the worth of the product; in the absence of demand the value of the product is zero, and it has nothing to do with Keynesianism.
    Soviet centrally planned economy was an ultimate supply-driven system; the key assumption was that demand for anything is unlimited, they just wanted to produce more stuff.

  130. Ragnar says:

    cobbler,
    See, I told you that you wouldn’t understand it.
    Business people have to make predictions about future human needs to guide economic production.
    Real demand is derived from having useful goods or services to offer others.

    3 guys show up on an island. They assess their needs – food, water, shelter. Only to the extent that any of them are of any use in producing one of the above do they have any economic value to trade with the others. No amount of stimulus or money printing will save them from death. And they have to create a food surplus – calories created needs to be less than the energy spent finding food. Similarly, hydration expended searching for water needs to surpass water found. If they cannot figure out economic production of those, where the cost is less than the output, they die.
    Saying “I’m hungry” or “I’m thirsty” isn’t equivalent to demand. Food stamps are worthless and not a source of economic demand. A jug of water, profitably gathered, can result in effective demand for food gathered by another fellow. Just as that guy’s food supplies provide him with effective demand for water.

  131. yo says:

    Business people have to make predictions about future human needs to guide economic production is a guaranteed business failure.Thousands of patents that was predicted as the next best thing is shelved.Even medical research fails after millions of dollars spent.Economic production is always based on current and future demand.Life of demand.Then add location and financial ability of the community.It is called feasibilty study.

    Ragnar says:

    August 15, 2012 at 5:33 pm

    cobbler,
    See, I told you that you wouldn’t understand it.
    Business people have to make predictions about future human needs to guide economic production.
    Real demand is derived from having useful goods or services to offer others.

  132. yo says:

    Add economical environment.

  133. A Home Buyer says:

    About the Home Inspector –

    I used him as well. He did a good job, but you NEED to keep one IMPORTANT thing in mind.

    A Home Inspector is a superficial mind-easer. ALL OF THEM will miss things, sometimes major things. Their contract says this as well. A house with a clean inspection report may or may not be perfect.

    A home inspector only LOOKS at things (and maybe plays with appliances to test them). They will not move the current owner’s things to look behind boxes (and see the foundation walls behind them), they will not dig into walls (to see if there is mold present), they will not access anything which is considered dangerous. And they will probably recommend further inspections if they are unsure of things such as well, septic, chimney, etc.

    I was happy with the job he did, but I also had to have 4 other inspections for different specific systems as well. I learned a lot and he pointed out a lot of fixes the house needs. But he did miss some items as well due to the above restrictions.

    Take the report with a grain of salt, using it to exclude a house rather than include it.

  134. 3b says:

    I have been so busy just noticed the 10 year shot up to 1.80. Ouch.

  135. cobbler says:

    Ragnar [132]
    Subsistence agriculture is a really poor model of the post-industrial economy, whether supply or demand driven – so your point is hard to see… But even in your example, the 3 residents of the island will have no use for the food produced in excess of what they can eat, and they won’t trade their product (food) for water if a clean creek flows in the middle of the island. On the other hand, if these guys somehow get families, the demand for food will grow (more eaters), so they will need to produce more to keep their folks well-fed.

  136. 250k says:

    Regarding the uberinspektor, I want to echo what A Home Buyer (#135) wrote above. The guy is just a human. He is probably among the better inspectors but he does not catch everything.

    He did our inspection and pointed out many things, none of which killed the deal. He had us in a panic about one item that required us to hire a structural engineer (another expense) which turned out to be nothing. He missed a few things that while they are not “life-threatening” turned out to be really REALLY annoying.

    We also had a tree guy come look at the property, good luck finding one willing to do this if you don’t yet own the home.

    Bottom line is, hire the best inspector you can but be prepared for some surprises after you close. (If you don’t want to pay for a new water main or sewer line, invest now in having a plumber use a camera to check out what you are dealing with.)

    Somehow, in the excitement of buying the house, we never noticed that the stairs and many floorboards creak so much, our kids have no hope of ever sneaking out of the house, nor do we have any hope of not waking up sleeping babies if we aren’t very careful where we step on our way up/down the stairs.

    If your house has a fireplace, you need to call a chimney service guy to do a Level One inspection. Good Luck.

  137. relo says:

    Thank goodness the interwebs weren’t around when I was young and stupid.

    http://richkidsofinstagram.tumblr.com/

  138. Ann says:

    121 Yeah, they’re at 2003 prices or so from what I see. That’s not so bad. People are complaining about inventory being low/crappy but I think there are some great deals out there. I sure wouldn’t mind being out there buying right now if I could.

  139. Boom Chuckalucka says:

    It’s simple – pull the TARP/TALF/ et al off this pig and stop subsidizing this housing price bubble that shall end badly and stimulate the RESET.
    The alternative – maintain the farce, become a debt-serf, and become a renter subject to ridiculous price increases based on the heavy-handed/tight-fisted banks needing to recapitalize their balance sheets as they bleed off the dogs in their real estate portfolios.

    Come on people – this ain’t rocket science!

  140. The housing market is improving because there are more buyers chasing fewer homes. Skeptics of a housing bottom , however, often point to a scary set of numbers: the “shadow inventory” of potential foreclosures—the millions of mortgages that are either in foreclosure or in seriously default.

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