Increased cancelations – Big deal or not?

From HousingWire:

15% of home sales fail: Capital Economics

Many parties are forming real estate deals only to watch their transactions fall through before the closing date, Paul Diggle, a property economist with Capital Economics, said Thursday.

Diggle released a note saying “it’s obviously not good that 15% or more of all contracted home sales aren’t making it through to closing.”

Using data from the National Association of Realtors, he found that pending home sales rose 6.9% from December to July while actual closings were up only 2.1%.

If both indexes had risen together, it would suggest a more seamless move through the entire real estate transaction.

Part of the difference may be attributed to NAR’s existing home sales index using a larger survey sample than the pending home sales index, Capital Economics said.

“But we suspect that the bulk of the divergence reflects the fact that cancellation rates have increased,” Diggle wrote. “And this divergence creates problems in a market that is struggling to recover.”

Diggle says the escrow period has become more challenging for buyers and sellers who find themselves wrangling with financing, home inspections and title report issues.

“Escrow allows buyers or sellers who run into problems with any of these steps to withdraw from a sale at a relatively low cost,” he explained.

Diggle says rising cancellation rates are likely to keep the housing recovery “relatively muted.” The good news is more buyers are considering sales, but the divergence between initial contracts and closings could suggest falling home prices lie ahead.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

232 Responses to Increased cancelations – Big deal or not?

  1. grim says:

    Here are my top 3 reasons for canceled contracts:

    1. Failed Short Sale
    2. Broken Chain of Contingency
    3. Inspection Issues

  2. funnelcloud says:

    Good morning NJ good morning Mike
    Heres another one Grim:
    Even if a buyer’s are interested, Banks are not going to finance overpriced homes.

  3. grim says:

    From WSJ:

    Memo to Candidates: Show Us Some Housing Plans.

    Representatives of minorities and low-income groups have a message for the two presidential campaigns: Show us some serious plans for the housing market already.

    In a letter being sent Thursday to both presidential campaigns, a group of civil rights and affordable housing groups asked the campaigns of Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama for a meeting to discuss ways to repair the housing market.

    The groups signing the letter, which include the National Council of La Raza, National Urban League, Leadership Council on Civil Rights and the Center for Responsible Lending, are natural allies of Mr. Obama. But many of these groups have been disappointed with his track record on housing.

    “With the stability of entire communities hanging in the balance, those who propose to lead us owe us a proposal to address our urgent concerns.” Marc Morial, chief executive of the National Urban League, said in a statement.

    The groups, several of which have formed the Home for Good Campaign to encourage more discussion of how to rebuild the housing market, ask the candidates for “clear, specific answers” on a series of questions, including: “What will you do to address the lender misconduct and inadequate rules and enforcement that led to the current crisis and continue to threaten our economy? How will you help rejuvenate neighborhoods devastated by predatory lending and mass foreclosures? And how will you ensure that people of all races, ethnicities, and communities have an equal opportunity to pursue the American Dream?”

  4. grim says:

    2 – I haven’t seen or heard of an appraisal issue in months

  5. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    Will Fed’s Mortgage Buying Juice the Housing Recovery?

    Home prices are stabilizing, and new construction is bouncing back, but apparently the U.S. Federal Reserve isn’t buying a bullish housing recovery.

    Its announcement Thursday that it would buy up to $40 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities every month, with no clear finish line, says loud and clear that the Fed thinks housing needs more stimulus.

    Mortgage rates are already hovering near record lows, but mortgage applications, especially to purchase a home, have been weak. So many have refinanced already at low rates, and so many more are unable to refinance because of lack of home equity or high fees.

    As for home buying, the real growth in that area this year has been among investors on the low end, largely using all cash.

    Supplies of foreclosed properties have been shrinking dramatically, as those investors swarm auctions and bid on bulk deals.

    “For everyday homeowners, QE3 should work to suppress mortgage rates at a time when they’re artificially increasing. QE3 will offset the majority of the FHFA’s new g-fees, and will help keep FHA loans affordable despite rising mortgage insurance premiums,” argued Dan Green of Waterstone Mortgage.

    To see the low interest rates are not the housing cure-all, one need look no further than weekly mortgage applications numbers, which have been lackluster of late to say the least. The one benefit could be in the refinance segment of the market, especially as there is a new push to broaden the administration’s current refinance program for underwater borrowers. More refinances mean more money in consumers’ pockets. Unfortunately the Democrat-led effort is unlikely to make its way into reality, given the rising Republican opposition as election day nears.

    What remains to be seen is how many potential buyers will be able to take advantage of these low rates, given the still tight lending standards that rule today’s market.

  6. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey And Funnel

  7. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Zillow sues Trulia over home-value software

    Zillow Inc., which operates the largest U.S. real estate information website, has filed a patent-infringement suit against competitor Trulia Inc. over a software program that helps make home valuations more accurate.
    Zillow claims Trulia is infringing a patent for its Zestimate home-valuation service, which lets homeowners and real-estate agents update valuations by adding information specific to a property.

    About one-third of the 100 million homes in its database have been updated this way, the suit says, and it has “played a major role in Zillow’s success.”

    “When Trulia first launched Trulia Estimates, it was obvious to commentators that Trulia was merely copying Zillow,” Zillow says in the suit. “Commentators accused Trulia of being a ‘copycat’ of Zillow’s Zestimate service and predicted that Trulia’s copycat version might ‘ding’ Zillow’s Web traffic.”

    Zillow is seeking cash compensation and a court order that would block further use of its patented invention.

  8. 30 year realtor says:

    #4 – Just recently closed a home in Fair Lawn. Buyer financed via FHA and closing costs were added into purchase price. Appraisal came up a bit short. Buyer and seller managed to work out an agreement and save the closing.

    This type of situation is common in FHA financed transactions with seller concessions.

  9. Essex says:

    It’s official. I am not voting this year. I will leave that to those who like choosing between two sets of schmucks/

  10. grim says:

    This type of situation is common in FHA financed transactions with seller concessions.

    If the contract price is equal to the appraised value before concessions, we’re going to have a problem. But, are you saying that the appraisal is the issue if this whole model is predicated on the appraisal coming in above contract by at least the value of the closing costs/concessions? To me this is more of a financing problem than an appraisal problem. Wasn’t this the entire basis for the change reducing allowable seller concessions from 6% to 3%. I was under the impression that properties were routinely being appraised for higher than their true value in order to provide a buffer for the concession.

  11. Fast Eddie says:

    Economic crisis at home; political tensions in the Middle East resulting in the death of four Americans; middle finger to Netanyahu; what should a president do? Why, go on the Letterman show, of course. I’m leaving now for my private sector job.

  12. Essex says:

    11. Gawd bless the private sector. The only place where people really work.

  13. Essex says:

    Schmucks abound.

  14. Grim says:

    Feels very Greenspan this morning.

  15. Grim says:

    The local rock group down the street
    Is trying hard to learn their song
    Seranade the weekend squire, who just came out to mow his lawn

    Another Pleasant Valley Sunday
    Charcoal burning everywhere
    Rows of houses that are all the same
    And no one seems to care

    See Mrs. Gray she’s proud today because her roses are in bloom
    Mr. Green he’s so serene, He’s got a t.v. in every room

    Another Pleasant Valley Sunday
    Here in status symbol land
    Mothers complain about how hard life is
    And the kids just don’t understand

    Creature comfort goals
    They only numb my soul and make it hard for me to see
    My thoughts all seem to stray, to places far away
    I need a change of scenery

  16. Grim says:

    Essex – you know that tune is actually about PV way in WO?

  17. Essex says:

    Carol King baby

  18. Confused in NJ says:

    9.Essex says:
    September 14, 2012 at 6:51 am
    It’s official. I am not voting this year. I will leave that to those who like choosing between two sets of schmucks/

    It’s sad, even though Truman & Eisenhower are dead, either would still do a better job.

  19. Grim says:

    Somehow I think that listeners were probably too enamored with the chorus to actually listen to the lyrics.

  20. 1993 House Buyer says:

    #15, one of my favorite songs, also love Shades of Gray:

    Shades Of Gray lyrics

    by Barry Mann & Cynthia Weil

    When the world and I were young, just yesterday,Life was such a simple game, a child could play.

    It was easy then to tell right from wrong,Easy then to tell weak from strong,When a man should stand and fight or just go along.

    But today there is no day or night,Today there is no dark or light,Today there is no black or white, only shades of gray.

    I remember when the answer seemed so clear,We had never lived with doubt or tasted fear.It was easy then to tell truth from lies

    Selling-out from compromise,Who to love and who to hate, the foolish from the wise.

    But today there is no day or night,Today there is no dark or light,Today there is no black or white, only shades of gray

    It was easy then to know what was fair,When to keep and when to share,How much to protect your heart and how much to care.But today there is no day or night,

    Today there is no dark or light,Today there is no black or white, only shades of gray, Only shades of gray.

  21. Ann says:

    How about appraisals coming in too low?

  22. Brian says:

    7 –
    It’s interesting, if I look at my zillow zestimate for my house and compare it to trulia’s estimate, trulia says my house is worth $60,000 more. Clearly they are using a differnt algorithm to estimate home values.

  23. Hi there, I found your web site by way of Google at the same time as searching for a similar subject, your web site came up, it appears to be like good. I’ve added to my favourites|added to bookmarks.

  24. Juice Box says:

    House I Like ask is 100k below zillow estimate.

  25. Essex says:

    Zillow seems to be ‘low’ so that must be loooow.

  26. Brian says:

    11 – Gary do you listen to WOR in the morning at all? John Gambling interviewed Joel Rosenberg this morning. He made all those points really well. The white house supported removing Gaddfi, who was effectively contained, only to have him replaced by extremists who imposed sharia law (worse). Then they supported removing Mubarak in Egypt, who was an alli to the US, only to see the same thing happen there. But no such efforts from the whitehouse when it comes to Iran, who is clearly an enemy to the us and Israel and can’t wait to get their hands on Nukes. All the while the whitehouse tells Netanyahu the prez is too busy to meet with him. Even though he has time to go on Letterman. Netanyahu is facing potential nuclear war with Iran who is busy digging underground bunkers to continue furthering their nuclear program. It’s only a matter of time before they are so far underground that they are out of Israel’s reach and cannot be destroyed by Israel’s military. Tick tick tick.

    I guess the election is more important.

  27. Afe says:

    Homeowner association woes

    http://Tinyurl.Com/8ke4vue

    Pink playhouse is a no-no….chartreuse, maybe.

  28. Fast Eddie says:

    Brian [26],

    I heard it on the way to work. No worries, get Oblama a tall boy and a pack of smokes; he’s busy booking time on the golf course.

  29. yo says:

    Israel always looks after their own interest.They should go after the nukes now,if that is what is in their interest.They dont need the US blessing or drag the US to a war.They did all possible diplomacy,UN included.They should attack before it is too late.

  30. grim says:

    My dad grew up in communist Poland, he shares the views that many HOAs are indistinguishable from the kind of communist governments that many came to America to run away from.

  31. yo says:

    When I did my refi through HARP appraisal came in the same as zillow.You all know they dont send an appraiser to the house.I guess they use zestimate

  32. grim says:

    Zillow didn’t invent the AVM, they were in use for many years before Zillow. The only novel component was they made it public-facing.

  33. grim says:

    Psy on the Today Show this morning, love it.

  34. Painhrtz - I am a meat popsicle says:

    I have always been partial to reign in blood from slayer.

    Isreal wants us to do the heavy lifting as we always have or at least have access to our intelligence before the strike as they did with Iraq and Syria. I’m surprised Chairman O is at least not humoring Bibi with the election coming up. The Jewish vote in Florida could swing that state. I think he is taking that voting block for granted or just expecting them to no show. There is definately going to be an October surprise, but I don’t think it is going to be the kind the chosen one wants or expects. Don’t be fooled Iran wants the professor and chief to remain in charge these four years have been great for their influence in the middle east. All that being said, I would rather have bamboo shoots inserted under my nails than vote for Romney. Who the hell wants years 12-16 of the bush presidency. As loathe as I am to admit it this ding dong makes me wish the C student was still in charge. and CEO perfect hair isn’t going to be any different.

  35. Fast Eddie says:

    Yeah, the election is the only thing that matters to the O Team. There could a pile of smoldering rubble and nothing left as long as the Annointed can announce himself f*cking king. This guy breaks the mold on the concept of narcissism. And another thing: Bernanke is a lunact1c, I’m convinced. I never thought I’d say pile up on gold and guns, but I see no other option. How do you kick a her0ine habit when they keep handing you bags of smack?

  36. Fast Eddie says:

    The October surprise came in the form of a gun being held to Bernanke’s head. And I wouldn’t be shocked if it was in a literal sense by that Chicago crew.

  37. Anon E. Moose says:

    Brian [26];

    The worst thing about Obama throwing Kaddafi under the bus last year was that we had only recently cut a deal with him to come in out of the cold. Whether one thinks we should have cut that deal is another matter — we did it. He paid Lockerbie reparations, GB did the midnight (jet)bridge prisoner exchange and sent his man back to Tripoli, etc.

    Object lesson to the Middle East was that it wasn’t worth dealing with the Americans.

  38. 3B Buying says:

    #8 30 Year: How much FHA financing out there are you seeing?

  39. Mikewaited says:

    Pain 34 Yes Bush is starting to look better than “O” or “the hair do” really f**ken scarey.

  40. 3B Buying says:

    #26 Brian: Whatever the differences or who is right or wrong. If we attack Iran it is all over.

  41. Mikewaited says:

    We had Egypt in our pocket & Kadaffi on a short leash & we blew it. Two critical foreign policy blunders by the “O” team. They will haunt us for the foreseeable future, Bush’s neocon inspired invasion of Iraq looks like a misstep in comparison. Do not get into lives lost there (Iraq) these two moves will cost more in blood & treasure long term.

  42. 3B Buying says:

    #29 yo: Whoever attacks Iran (Israel/U.S., both) it is gloing to be a disaster The Democrats don’t have a clue as to what to do, the Republicans are itching to do another war, because that is what they will do. And then it will be regime change, and bring democracy to Iran. Americans don’t understand that as much as many Iranians despise their government, they love their country, and if attacked they will fight.

    If we get involved in this, it will not like Iraq where Saddam’s boys ran away. This will be a disaster.

  43. Fast Eddie says:

    The FED going into full ground and air assault is a signal that this administration is an economic disaster. They’re outright admitting it now.

  44. yo says:

    Saddam will not let a Nuclear powered Iran.he could have done the dirty work

  45. Mikewaited says:

    3b 41 “allover” for whom? Them ,us them or the world, WW III perhaps. Maybe a regional Middle-east wide conflict with China & Russia supplying our adversaries. Well which ever the case get ready it is coming.

  46. Brian says:

    34 –
    Pain, this guy Rosenberg was saying the US has warehouses full of daisy cutters or whatever they’re called and whatnot…stuff that could easily destroy a bunker at a variety of depths. Israel doesn’t have this stuff. Therefore, Netanyahu has to assume, given our (the Whitehouse’s) behavior, that he is on his own and his window of opportunity is closing the deeper Iran digs.

  47. All Hype says:

    Gary (36):

    I caught some of Uncle Ben’s press conference. I found him to be very, very nervous and not very convincing. He was obviously pushed into this. All he had to defend his monetary insanitity was that free money would drive up asset prices and that would make everyone “feel” richer and therefore they would buy houses.

  48. Mikewaited says:

    3b 43 yes they will fight hard but lose. Just get ready for KIA numbers like WWII. America is not used to the high price in blood we once paid to wage war, that is part of the problem we forgot how easy it is to lose thousands of our bravest in a day. I hope I am wrong but these idiots on both sides are going there.

  49. JJ's B.S says:

    Only one reason home deals fall apart. Seller and Realtors.
    1) Homepath house I tried to buy realtor was unfamilar with process and fanniemae and listing agent made errors. Somehow, I was willing to pay more than highest price but still did not get it.
    2) Second home me and seller were 19k apart. Seller refused to go lower and realtor refused to give up any commission.
    3) Old man I dealt with told him two doors down and identical layout and plot size but with a newer kitchen and 1.5 baths and newer paint sold for 320K. I told him even if I went cheap it would cost me 20K to fix so most your house is worth is 300K. He told me he wants 349k as market is recovering and it will be worth that by spring. I say you want Spring 2013 price in August 2012. He goes yes.
    4) Lazy realtors. I wanted realtor to give me how much it would be to insure, how much to renovate, average rentals, told her I like house I dont have time for this nonsense. She made me do all the leg work, wife was like I give up. I know in good times not realtors job, but really too lazy to do 2-3 hours of work.
    5) Sellers who think 2004-2008 prices have any bearing on todays price.
    6) Stupid Sellers. I spoke to one yesterday. Guy bought a condo at peak for 435K that is worth today around 265K with a realtor fee. Called him up out of blue to get him to sell. Tell guy look you are better off selling today if you want to trade up. I can get you place at a good price and you can save big when you trade up. He has plans to trade up but not till market recovers. I was like you do know for every One dollar your condo rises in value your trade up home rises two dollars in value, he said I do but I cant bear selling at a loss. Would have gave him 250K. Put him out of his misery.
    Buyers never are the cause of a blown deal. House fails inspection and needs 30K of repairs, knock 31K off house and give me a bj.

    grim says:
    September 14, 2012 at 5:52 am

    Here are my top 3 reasons for canceled contracts:

    1. Failed Short Sale
    2. Broken Chain of Contingency
    3. Inspection Issues

  50. Brian says:

    48 –
    On the bright side, a cheaper dollar would boost exports no?

    Plus, people with crushing mortgage debt would find that their debts are worth less.

  51. Mikewaited says:

    hype 48 “free money would drive up asset prices and that would make everyone “feel” richer and therefore they would buy houses.” and that is all he has, we are truly screwed.

  52. 3B Buying says:

    #46 Mike: Any scenario that you mentioned is quite possible in my opinion. WW III huge regional Mid East war, China, Russia, and all the rest. Are the American people going to wnat to be invoved in yet another war in that part of the world? If we have a situation of a ground war, will we have the gorund forces? Could we even have a draft again?

  53. 3B Buying says:

    #52 Mike: And that is why as noted here first we will have QE to infinity!!! We really are you know what!!

  54. Mikewaited says:

    Brain 47 we have some new stuff for that purposely built to get at there hardened under ground sites. Whether we can get them all & effectiveness is still a wild card.

  55. Brian says:

    49 –
    Mike, don’t think for a second that wars fought in Afghanistan or Iraq are any less dangerous. It’s my understanding, what’s improved, is the ability to swoop in and airlift somebody to a location with improved modern trauma care. Somebody who would have died in WWII might now survive. Albeit without a leg or an arm or an eye or their hearing but the point is, war is no less dangerous. There still are many casualties.

  56. Obama says:

    Dear Eddie,

    I apologize for being the root of ALL of your problems. It is all my fault. It definitely isn’t the fact that you are a miserable person.

    Regards,
    O

  57. Fast Eddie says:

    All Hype [48],

    It’s blatant now, not even hidden and they don’t give a f*ck. Their true colors came out. It’s “win” the election by any means necessary. 1 out of 6 now in poverty; you think they give a sh1t?

  58. Brian says:

    55 – Mike the point is, Israel doesn’t seem to have the firepower to get as deep as we do. It just would be nice if Obama sat down and talked to Netanyahu.

  59. Mikewaited says:

    3b 53 all armed forces at110% recruitment they are being picky on who they take, just spoke to a full bird Colonel about it. There is no work for these kids so they are overwhelming recruiters. That could change once the shooting starts but right now you could train up a few extra divisions with no draft & they better get started.

  60. chicagofinance says:

    KFC Neanderthal: At minimum you must voted for Kyrillos for Senator……Menendez is seriously bad news……

    Essex says:
    September 14, 2012 at 6:51 am
    It’s official. I am not voting this year. I will leave that to those who like choosing between two sets of schmucks/

  61. Fast Eddie says:

    Obama [57],

    Remember when it was elect anyone but Bush? Now, the slide is accelerating but the mantra is both sides are the same, so what’s the difference. How convenient.

  62. Mikewaited says:

    Brain 56 I am aware of that but the numbers will be unlike anything in recent warfare.
    Brain- 55 We could ship them over a few dozen of the new ones , just saying. And yes his “O ness”should talk to him but he is an A**.

  63. Mikewaited says:

    Brain Israel does not have the air assets to get the job done even if we give them perpetrators they need us to get in & hopefully get all.

  64. Mikewaited says:

    “penetraters” not perpetrators

  65. Brian says:

    Ah Je$us. NJDEP guys are giving NJTransit a hard time about the new rail stations up here. Big surprise. They just can’t ever get anything done. I’m all for saving the environment and all but these guys kill project after project in Sussex County. It’s really getting irritating.

    Rail service plans face likely delay to next year

    By BRUCE A. SCRUTON

    bscruton@njherald.com

    NEWTON — It appears NJ Transit will lose another construction season as the agency moves toward bringing commuter rail service to Sussex County because it has run out of time to get necessary state permits to lay the final rails and build the Andover station.

    While some track has already been laid along the Lackawanna Cutoff through Stanhope, Hopatcong and Byram, the final permits for the station have yet to be issued and site preparation will have to wait until November 2013, if the permits are issued.

    On Wednesday, the Sussex County Board of Chosen Freeholders approved a letter in support of the project be sent to Bob Martin, commissioner

    of the Department of Environmental Protection, asking him “to do all you can to expedite the issuance of the waiver and permits so that work can advance on this very important project.”

    Although the overall project, which follows old railroad beds from Port Morris in Morris County to Scranton, Pa., was declared to have no significant environmental impacts by

    the Federal Railroad Administration, each segment of the project still needs appropriate state permits.

    In the case of the last link from already-laid tracks in Byram to the Andover station, NJ Transit needs land use and freshwater permits and a Special Action Transition Area waiver. The waiver is needed because the station, adjacent to Roseville Road, comes within 150 feet of a state-classified stream.

    Sussex County Transportation Planner Tom Drabic said there don’t appear to be any major problems since NJ Transit and the DEP have been working together, but gathering the necessary paperwork to grant the permits and waivers is taking time.

    “We were hoping it (permits) would be sooner rather than later,” he said, but because of other DEP regulations dealing with protected species, a five-month construction window is likely to close before the permits can be granted and the necessary contracts awarded.

    Although the railbed is more than a century old, trees and brush have grown up along the track and there is heavy forest in the area where the station is to be built. That makes the area suitable summer habitat for the endangered Indiana bat, so clearing of trees from the land is limited to Nov. 1 to March 31.

    While the eastern end of the Lackawanna Cutoff lies within the designated Highlands Region, the Highlands Council has already ruled that reactivating the rail line is a specific exemption to the Highlands Act in the planning area and recommended that DEP grant the necessary permits for the preservation area.

    Built in the early 1900s, the Lackawanna Cutoff was considered the cutting edge of engineering and construction techniques at that time.

    The cutoff refers to a short-cut for the railroad from the southern tip of Lake Hopatcong to the Delaware Water Gap which eliminated a winding route that went south into Warren County before crossing the Delaware River.

    The engineering of the route, which required cuts through ridges and miles-long fill, resulted in a railbed which is said to have a rise of less than 20 feet along its length.

    The last trains made their runs in the 1980s and the state took ownership of the right-of-way.

    While the full plan is to recreate the route all the way to Scranton, Drabic said the immediate need is to get commuter rail service at least to Stroudsburg, Pa., to take some of the commuter pressure off Interstate 80.

    Trains originating at Andover will travel to Hoboken, but there will be connections possible to get to Penn Station in Manhattan or to routes to other New Jersey locations.

  66. All Hype says:

    Gary (58):
    I totally agree with you. I told the wife last night that it might be time to do some food stocking as costs will rise 30% in a year.

  67. JJ's B.S says:

    People with Phat Stacks like you, two buck a can tuna should phase you.

    All Hype says:
    September 14, 2012 at 9:38 am

    Gary (58):
    I totally agree with you. I told the wife last night that it might be time to do some food stocking as costs will rise 30% in a year.

  68. yo says:

    Jj all big banks are undervalued. How much rally your looking at?

  69. Jill says:

    Anon #34: It was the Libyans who got rid of Kadaffi. What was the US supposed to do, prop him up? Does the name “Shah of Iran” mean anything to you?

  70. prtraders says:

    Finally found a house that wife and I agree on and wouldn’t you know we are in a bidding war. Sellers just asked for highest final offer and I went to $200 over original list. My estimation is that this is 2.5% over what the house is worth, but just to stop the wife’s insanity it will be worth it. Fingers crossed. Sellers bought the home last year, showed me receipts of the 53k that they put into it, and are now moving with their infant baby to be closer to grandma. Looks like they are going to get out unscathed.

  71. Grim says:

    66 – What a joke we all are. I can hear the laughing coming all the way from China. We can’t even get out of our own way to build a train station.

    It’s amazing to think we did great things like build the Hoover Dam. Too bad those days are far behind us.

    Let us take a moment this morning to bow to our great leaders in the east.

  72. yo says:

    Imposing the no fly zone did much damage to Kadaffis power.

  73. Anon E. Moose says:

    Your O-ness [57];

    Dear Eddie,

    I apologize for being the root of ALL of your problems. It is all my fault. It definitely isn’t the fact that you are a miserable person.

    Regards,
    O

    Tell me again how much your party cares about the well-being of everybody, and will be nothing by the most benevolent of rulers providing for all out needs and wants if we’d only lie back and think of Engl–uh, America.

  74. 3B Buying says:

    #60 Mike: Was not aware of that. But some Americans are gun ho to go to war. But if there was a draft they might not be so enthuisastic about it. I am very worried how that all plays out over there. Which ever one of two less than desireable candidates win in November.

  75. Ragnar says:

    A Special Message From the President of the United States

    President Jimmy Carter…..Dan Aykroyd

    [ open on Presidential seal ]

    Announcer: And now, a special message from the President of the United States.

    [ dissolve to Oval Office ]

    President Jimmy Carter: Good evening. On Tuesday, we Americans will have the opportunity to exercise our role as citizens in a free democracy. Yet, only a third of the eligible voters will actually cast ballots. The other two-thirds are, in a sense, very lucky. Because they do not know what’s going on.

    Last week, I delivered a message on inflation. Since then, the dollar has dropped in value, the stock market has sustained record losses, and the whole sow price index increased 0.9%. In other words, our economic system is screwed, blued and tatooed! We just have to face the fact that there is simply no way to fight inflation in a capitolly-intensive, highly-technological, conflict-riddled, anything-for-a-thrill world of today. That’s why, tonight, I want you to try to look for in inflation, an entirely new word: Inflation is our friend.

    For example, consider this: in the year 2000, if current trends continue, the average blue-collar annual wage in this country will be $568,000. Think what this inflated world of the future will mean – most Americans will be millionaires. Everyone will feel like a bigshot. Wouldn’t you like to own a $4,000 suit, and smoke a $75 cigar, drive a $600,000 car? I know I would! But what about people on fixed incomes? They have always been the true victims of inflation. That’s why I will present to Congress the “Inflation Maintenance Program”, whereby the U.S. Treasury will make up any inflation-caused losses to direct tax rebates to the public in cash. Then you may say, “Won’t that cost a lot of money? Won’t that increase the deficit?” Sure it will! But so what? We’ll just print more money! We have the papers, we have the mints.. I can just call up the Bureau of Engraving and say, “Hi! This is Jimmy. Roll out some of them twenties! Print up a couple thousand sheets of those Century Notes!” Sure, all these dollars will cause even more inflation, but who cares? Everyone will be a millionaire!

    In my speech last week, I said that America would have to undergo an austerity program, but since this revolutionary new approach welcomes inflation, our economy will be free to grow, and we can spend, spend, spend! I believe the watchwords for the 80’s should be “Let’s Party!” And in that spirit, I’d like to say, “Live, from New York, it’s Saturday Night!”

  76. 3B Buying says:

    #66 Brian: If I remeber correctly that whole commuter train thing has been going on for over 3o years!!!

  77. grim says:

    Finally found a house that wife and I agree on and wouldn’t you know we are in a bidding war.

    Of course you are. Not to sound harsh here, but we need to realize that most buyers from this blog are so critical, that if something comes up that they find attractive, at a price they find attractive, there are probably 2 dozen other buyers that think it’s even more attractive and better priced. It’s just the nature of our negative sentiment towards housing. We’ve got a better eye for the bargain than most other people.

    This is exactly how I knew that 3b’s listing in Midland Park would be under contract by this weekend. I didn’t need to do any in depth market analysis. Just took a quick look to confirm the quality and the price, all I needed to see. The good stuff goes, it’s that simple.

  78. Painhrtz - I am a meat popsicle says:

    Grim it is a joke because the run off from all the cars on 80 is basically industrial effluent into a multitude of local streams and rivers. the environmental impact would be minimal but the the cost savings of repair of infrastructure would be huge if the proposed line went through. I would also bet faced with the prospects of two hours in the car in which you could do nothing or two hours in the train where you can be semi productive would make the line a huge winner. this is coming from someone who loves the highlands but there is a distinct difference from smart development and death by regulation. i always thought the Pine barrens and Adirondack commisions were the worst on the east coast, but the folks at the highlands commision and the morons at the DEP are shooting for the gold star.

    3B Americans may be tired of war but they will do what they are told. 60 years of TV, substandard public education and needless materialism has all but assured that.

    Jill they did not have to prop up Colonel Q but they did not have to facilitate his demise either. the best state for the middle east to be in, is them fighting each other. As much of a tragedy as Syria is, getting involved their would just lay the roots for a proxy even more symapathetic to Iran. Intervention in that craphole that is the middle east has only swelled the ranks of islamists as their natural enemies, dictators, strong men etc are no longer torturing killing or at war with them. So they turn their attentions to us. Bush the greater put us on this path and we have been poking the wound ever since.

  79. Anon E. Moose says:

    Grim [73];

    +1.

    The current model for public works in America is the Big Dig in Boston. 10 years and a $14 Billion dollars (5x over budget), including payoffs for indian (uh, native america) museums, all to get a 3.5 mile tunnel ($4 Billion per mile!) that leaks and randomly drops 3-ton 20×40 concrete ceiling tiles on cars driving through it.

    But it was all done with highest quality union labor.

  80. grim says:

    From Reuters:

    Consumer Sentiment Jumps to Highest Level in Four Months

    U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly rose in early September to its highest level in four months as Americans were more upbeat about their economic and job prospects, a survey showed on Friday.

    The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s preliminary September consumer sentiment index rose to 79.2 from 74.3 in August. That topped expectations for a decline to 74.0, according to a Reuters poll.

    The gauge of consumer expectations climbed to 73.4 from 65.1, though the barometer of current economic conditions nudged down to 88.3 from 88.7. Both the sentiment and expectations measures were at their highest level since May.

    Just 12 percent of those surveyed expected the unemployment rate to rise, down sharply from the 25 percent that anticipated an increase in August’s survey. This month’s proportion was the lowest recorded since 1966.

    Favorable long-term prospects for the economy were seen by 42 percent of consumers, the highest level in five years and up from 32 percent last month.

    But the improved optimism was likely a temporary bounce after the recent presidential candidate conventions, the report cautioned.

    “The sooner it is tempered, the less economic damage will be incurred due to failed expectations,” survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement.

  81. Brian says:

    77 –
    They got pretty far this time. They actually started laying track. The line is only being extended to Andover but some f*king bat from indiana which “might” live on parts of the “man made” railbed is holding things up.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bd/Lackawanna_Cut-Off_Construction-Mar-01-2011.JPG/800px-Lackawanna_Cut-Off_Construction-Mar-01-2011.JPG

  82. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Kevin Warsh on CNBC this morning was firmly in the doom and gloom camp. And I was following CNN analysis on the Fed’s action and they seemed a bit shaken. As someone here said, if the administration loses CNN, they have problems.

    Dollar getting crushed. Glad I didn’t unload last of my shiny paper. Will try to sell soon as I expect a post election drop.

  83. grim says:

    82 – Analysis paralysis alongside a bureaucracy that feels it necessary to deny everything to prove it’s “value” and justify it’s existence. Taken together, it becomes impossible to accept any alternative to the status quo.

    For example, it’s OK to mine for coal and burn it for electricity, despite the incredible pollution and environmental destruction generated from that activity. Probably the single worst way to generate power ever conceived. However, fracking and burning gas for electricity, is absolute heresy. Must be stopped at all cost. Meanwhile, coal ash continues to be dumped into leaking pits, polluting rivers and groundwater. It’s OK though, because it’s not considered “hazardous”.

    I wonder how many of these wars are waged from couches and kitchen tables. Probably the same people that were Shocked! to find out that ground beef comes from slaughterhouses and factories. You know, because the Steak Fairy visits the grocery every evening, and the electrical fairies live inside the little outlets.

  84. Jill says:

    #75: Rmoney has 5 strapping sons (one of whom is not like the others, which makes me wonder what Ann Rmoney was doing with the pool boy). I nominate them to go to war first.

  85. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Money,

    You will have mail.

  86. POS cape says:

    Pyramids off bucket list.

  87. Shore Guy says:

    Who cares about QE3? What is another $480,000,000,000 a year of new money entering the system? Heck, $40Billion a month is becoming pocket change.

    In fact, before long, we might be asking each other, “Buddy? Can you break a $50,000,000 bill for me? I need to buy some coffee.”

  88. yo says:

    A burglar at my house last night looking for money. I got up and search with him

  89. Shadow of John says:

    “The good stuff goes, it’s that simple.”

    No news here. Just look at whats in a bar at closing time. All the good stuff is paired off well before then.

  90. joyce says:

    (86)
    Jill,
    With that comment, I assume you are 100% fed up with the lies the executive told during his initial campaign with regards to ending the foreign wars? Not only was everything he said he would do in terms of foreign policy a lie, this country was dragged into even more foreign boondoggles. A.k.a Bush admin on steroids?

    Last election, the anti-war candidate won. (You could say the anti-Bush candidate won, but Bush was the tyrannical war-mongering liberty destroying dictator wannabe.) The problem is in this election neither of the two major candidates are even pretending to be anti-war.

    Major problems for the average individual are dead ahead.

  91. Ragnar says:

    Jill, (86)
    You might feel embarrassed if you found out that one of their kids was adopted and the Romneys decided not to make him feel “different”, and didn’t want to make a bigger public show of their caring side. Even I don’t go after O’s kids or speculate on what’s up with his wife’s big old ****. Her nutritional advice is amateur-grade, however.

  92. Painhrtz - I am a meat popsicle says:

    Ragnar I did say Kashyyk was mising a perfectly good wookie in reference to the first nanny once, but the kids are definitely off limits. they can’t help who spawned them. Plus I love the rich and detached meme for the Romneys. Like rich detached academics are any different. Who gives a crap. Neither of those boobs have a plan short of more war and the echo chambers of their own lobotomized bases.

  93. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [26] Brian – You misunderstand the game in the Middle East completely. The only important thing to the US PTB are that oil trade in US dollars and nothing else. Gadaffi, like Saddam, were both taken out for this reason. Saddam wanted to sell oil for Euros, Gadaffi wanted to sell oil for gold. Iran will be taken out, but not because of their nuclear program, but rather because they are selling oil to the Chinese for Yuan.

  94. grim says:

    #8 30 Year: How much FHA financing out there are you seeing?

    In the last week in BC, looking at Single Family sales, about 100 total sales.

    38 Conventional
    26 ARM
    16 FHA
    16 Cash
    4 Other

  95. yo says:

    Help me understand something.QE is money created from nothing while purchasing private or public assets which puts the named assets in the Feds books.The seller will be paid money while the Fed is holding the asset.When the Fed decides to sell this assets,the money from the transaction goes back to the Fed.The Fed destroys this money,Where is the increase in money supply? QE is added to the deficit,so far over $3 trillion.The Fed pays the Central bank interest on this money.(We pay interest on our own money,to ourselves, that is a good thing).When the assets are sold and destroyed, the deficit equal to QE will also disappear.NO?

  96. grim says:

    From the NAR profile of NJ Buyers and Sellers, in 2011:

    FHA All Buyers 23%
    FHA First Time Buyers 38.6%
    FHA Repeat Buyers 9%

    This was significantly lower than the National average:

    FHA All Buyers 35.7%
    FHA First Time Buyers 54.2%
    FHA Repeat Buyers 23%

  97. 3B Buying says:

    #97 grim: Thanks just curious.

  98. Libtard in Union says:

    Has Apple hit $1,000 yet?

  99. Painhrtz - I am a meat popsicle says:

    Expat Yeah dollar hegemony! Petrol dollar is the only thing keeping the Fed’s game of shadows in business.

  100. JJ's B.S says:

    Fed is buying MBS, you suckas with mortgages are paying interest to govt. Thx
    yo says:
    September 14, 2012 at 11:35 am

    Help me understand something.QE is money created from nothing while purchasing private or public assets which puts the named assets in the Feds books.The seller will be paid money while the Fed is holding the asset.When the Fed decides to sell this assets,the money from the transaction goes back to the Fed.The Fed destroys this money,Where is the increase in money supply? QE is added to the deficit,so far over $3 trillion.The Fed pays the Central bank interest on this money.(We pay interest on our own money,to ourselves, that is a good thing).When the assets are sold and destroyed, the deficit equal to QE will also disappear.NO?

  101. Ernest Money says:

    Welcome to the endgame in the collapse of Western Civilization. It is now preety much a lock to happen within our lifetimes.

    Whichever of the two dunces wins the election, it matters not. The trend is in place, and the trend ends in a bridge abutment at 140 mph.

  102. Ernest Money says:

    BTW, no way in hell I ever vote again. Not even the school budget crap.

  103. Juice Box says:

    re # 98 – Yo how well are the reverse repos for the Fed going? When can the Fed sell back this vast amount of MBS at market?

    Revese Repos were supposed to be in full swing by now, Bernake does not mention it anymore. Fannie and Freddie will stay nationalized. The Treasury and the Fed know it is QE to infinity. They will prop MBS from here to infinity now.

    As far as why? Well why the FED is cornering the market in MBS is because mortgage loans still have a greater default risk than the banks or their customers are prepared to weather. Approximately 200 Billion a quarter in NEW defaults.

    This chart and unemployment are the only ones that really matter to the FED.

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DRSFRMACBS?cid=32440

  104. joyce says:

    103

    JJ,

    You baller, you genius… you never had a mortgage did you?
    (Cue story about how you paid it off early, congratulations He-Man)

  105. JJ's B.S says:

    I think chase is a 48 stock, BAC is a 17 stock. Bank stocks with exposure to real estate will do well and ones with a juicy dividend will pay well.

    Note: I am 100K long JPM stock and 50K long BAC bonds and sleep like a baby. Afterall they are as good as gold as long as Ben is around.

    yo says:
    September 14, 2012 at 9:51 am

    Jj all big banks are undervalued. How much rally your looking at?

  106. joyce says:

    (98)

    yo

    “Help me understand something.”

    Admitting you’re clueless is the first step.

    “QE is money created from nothing while purchasing private or public assets which puts the named assets in the Feds books.The seller will be paid money while the Fed is holding the asset.When the Fed decides to sell this assets,the money from the transaction goes back to the Fed.The Fed destroys this money,Where is the increase in money supply?”

    Wake me up from my grave when the FED decides to sell the worthless paper it is buying now.

    “QE is added to the deficit,so far over $3 trillion.The Fed pays the Central bank interest on this money.(We pay interest on our own money,to ourselves, that is a good thing).When the assets are sold and destroyed, the deficit equal to QE will also disappear.NO?”

    So many mistakes in that it’s hard to parse. Paying interest to ourselves?!?!

    Why do we need taxation, why do we need to work… let’s just print and export everything. Boom roasted… perpetual prosperity!

  107. JJ's B.S says:

    No story, I only paid 280K for house in early 2000. Put down 120K. Refinanced once in 2001 and when I had extra cash I prepaid a few times. Come late 2008 my mortgage was only like 120K and most banks would not let me refinance such a small amount without huge fees and my town was put in a flood zone which ment I needed a flood policy for the amount of mortgage. I was rolling one year CDs up till Spring 2008 and as they matured in late 2008 and early 2009 I paid off my mortgage. Worked out well as I just bought junk bonds and stock each month with mortgage savings.

    joyce says:
    September 14, 2012 at 11:48 am

    103

    JJ,

    You baller, you genius… you never had a mortgage did you?
    (Cue story about how you paid it off early, congratulations He-Man)

  108. yo says:

    #106 Juice

    My point is as long as the Fed have this assets in its books and can destroy money from the transaction there is no increase in money supply.Ok maybe they will loose some transactions but it will not be equal to what is adveritised hyper inflation.

  109. joyce says:

    “export” I meant import.

    And by the way, the money the FED earns on its “investments” that is remitted back the to treasury is what’s left over after the FED’s expenses which include dividents to the FED bank members.

    There’s (most) of your “paying interest to ourselves” if by ourselves you mean the banking cartel.

  110. Ann says:

    I didn’t know one of the Romneys was adopted.

    I can’t stand Michelle’s No Child’s Fat Behind program.

  111. yo says:

    Fed is un winding AIG

    “Wake me up from my grave when the FED decides to sell the worthless paper it is buying now”

    YOU ARE NOT HELPING ME UNDERSTAND YOUR POSITION!!!!! I explained to you what I know

    “So many mistakes in that it’s hard to parse. Paying interest to ourselves?!?!

    Why do we need taxation, why do we need to work… let’s just print and export everything. Boom roasted… perpetual prosperity!””

    YOU KNOW WHAT I DONT EVEN WANT TO KNOW>YOU ARE A ONE SIDED MINDED.You are not ready to learn from the other side

  112. joyce says:

    What is the other side to arithmetic?

  113. grim says:

    Two questions:

    1) Why can’t the Fed simply hold the MBS to maturity? Is there really any reason they should ever sell the paper, let alone sell it at as a loss? Or is it the assumption that they must sell it back off to sterilize the net impact?

    2) Is the act of buying the MBS effectively goosing the market in their favor. How? Let’s all first agree that this is net inflationary, therefore we must also accept that the underlying asset that backs the paper is wonderfully correlated with inflation, protecting their purchase.

  114. Libtard in Union says:

    I wonder if the adopted child was placed in the roof rack on long road trips?

  115. Brian says:

    Yo,

    There’s an expression on Wall Street “don’t fight the fed”.

    I don’t think Joyce has heard that one yet.

    B

  116. Anon E. Moose says:

    Ragnar [94];

    That’s from the same left which is the first to cry “Have you no decency!?!” when clearly they have none.

  117. yo says:

    That is still paying money to ourselves.I did not say the government is not corrupt

    “And by the way, the money the FED earns on its “investments” that is remitted back the to treasury is what’s left over after the FED’s expenses which include dividents to the FED bank members.

    There’s (most) of your “paying interest to ourselves” if by ourselves you mean the banking cartel.”

  118. Grim says:

    One additional point…

    Isn’t QE3 a necessary prerequisite for HARP 3.0?

    Who else is going to buy billions of dollars worth of low rate refi loans?

  119. Ernest Money says:

    Joyce, stop annoying the monkey.

  120. joyce says:

    I hope you never again complain of corruption in Trenton or in your beloved NJDEP because those are pikers compared to the racket the FED resevere system has cranking.

    118.Brian says:
    September 14, 2012 at 12:03 pm
    Yo,

    There’s an expression on Wall Street “don’t fight the fed”.

    I don’t think Joyce has heard that one yet.

    B

  121. Ragnar says:

    Ann,
    I just made that up. I have no reason to believe a kid is adopted. I didn’t even know one kid looked different until Jill used this to raise an adultery hypothesis. Point is, kids can look different for all sorts of reasons. So even though one of Palin’s kids have downs syndrome we cannot conclude she slept with JJ or Reinvestor101.

  122. grim says:

    Isn’t QE3 a necessary prerequisite for HARP 3.0?

    I’ll say it again, I’ve already seen estimates in the millions for how many borrowers HARP 3 will open up refinance options for. Realize that HARP 3 will allow Freddie and Fannie to refinance non-agency loans, something that was restricted in HARP 2.

    This opens up a tremendous pipeline of MBS that will need to be absorbed by the market. Could easily double the current HARP run rate to more than 200,000 loans a month. At that point, it’d be pretty easy to pull a number like $200k per loan outta my ass and point right back to the $40 billion number as being right on.

  123. 1993 House Buyer says:

    #123…that is just written by a blogger right? Bernanke may be wrong, time will tell, but his actions are certainly understandable based on the history of the great depression and his academic background. Again he may be wrong, but he fears little of inflation until all of us have so much money that we are throwing it around…seems most people either owe alot or are unemployed! As far as housing, I think he feels that is a big driver of the US economy and that is his only place to drive activity, given Congress’s abdication of their responsibility.

    Finally, regarding Grim’s #1 MBS point, exactly, he does not have to sell.

  124. Juice Box says:

    Yo – the inflation danger is when the economy recovers not now. Too much money lent by the commercial banks causes the increase in the money supply. To discourage banks from lending their reserves and adding to the money supply the Fed has to raise the FFR. By setting the rate high enough, it discourages banks from lending their reserves and adding to the money supply, but that would also create additional excess reserves. Where would the Fed get the money to pay the interest? They would have to print it. A vicious cycle then ensues..

    Now if those MBS purchases turn out to not be junk and start generating income and can be sold in the Secondary then Bernake will be hailed as a genius since he could use the income generated from selling the MBS in the secondary market to pay the interest to the commercial banks and tame inflation.

    There are other considerations such as UST, currency and trade deficits. Those for now are tame but when the rest of the world economies recover who will buy our UST at ZIRP rates?

  125. JJ's B.S says:

    So for 49ers game Jets called me up to do a “audit” of who is actually attending game and will be their assigned seats. There are a few comp seats by where I will be sitting. I guess they want to make sure no schmucks in seats. So I ask what celeb am I sitting next to in Coaches Club this Sunday, Guy goes I am not allowed to tell you. I then said, well last game you must of had these as comp seats so who would have been sitting next to me. He goes well you would have been right near Vanessa Williams and Charles Oakley and he adds damm that Vanessa is hot. I then add, well feel free to put Vanessa next to me. But let me tell you two years ago you guys put Whoppi Goldberg near me and she looked and smelled like a bag lady, dont go putting Whoppi anywhere near my seats. He said thanks, I will put a not in your account about that.

    So I do wonder who I will be sitting next to in Coaches Club next Sunday.

  126. Libtard in Union says:

    Here’s your seatmate…

    http://tinyurl.com/dream-celeb

  127. Ernest Money says:

    I wonder how much of the Fed’s balance sheet right now is in D-rated paper.

    I also wonder what (if any) minimum ratings parameters are in place for the MBS they are about to start buying.

  128. 3B Buying says:

    #106 Juice: So from how I see it (correct me if I am wrong), the fed buys 40 billion of MBS a month from now unitl forever, that lowers mtg rates further, preserves or inccrease value of houses. At some point massive inflation kicks in , rates sjy rocket, the over priced 350k crap shack is now worth 700K, rates are at 7, 8, 9 %. Who now will buy these houses at these rates? Does he belive the economy wil be booming, and that there will also be wage inflation as well, and it simply won’t matter? That is a huge, huge gamble? What if we have stagflation (more likely in my opinion), or QE to eternity? Or will the Fed simply will be forced to continue on this path or it all collapses into flames?

  129. joyce says:

    To say it is just a blogger is to discredit a lot of the good information you find on NJREREPORT.

    The Federal Reserve System is all the member banks put together. To put it another way, the FED and the regional FED banks are owned by the member banks. Bernanke is doing whatever he needs to do to protect the banks; his ‘educational background on the depression’ is just cover. What the FED did in the 1920’s is exactly what they did, at a much greater scale, in the 1980’s-2000’s, and now we’re paying the price and the FED is bailing out the banks at our expense.

    Bernanke and his monetarist/keynesian ideas have long been disproven. How much more evidence do we need?

    127.1993 House Buyer says:
    September 14, 2012 at 12:49 pm
    #123…that is just written by a blogger right? Bernanke may be wrong, time will tell, but his actions are certainly understandable based on the history of the great depression and his academic background. Again he may be wrong, but he fears little of inflation until all of us have so much money that we are throwing it around…seems most people either owe alot or are unemployed! As far as housing, I think he feels that is a big driver of the US economy and that is his only place to drive activity, given Congress’s abdication of their responsibility.

    Finally, regarding Grim’s #1 MBS point, exactly, he does not have to sell.

  130. Ernest Money says:

    buyer (123)-

    If the Bernank truly believes it’s all for housing, then he is consuming his own toxic koolaid. Anyone with the IQ of a ferret understands that the housing market 2001-06 was a grotesquely-manipulated asset bubble and was engineered by Greenspan and his thugs in repsonse to the deflated dotcom bubble and 9/11.

    Housing- in a normal economic environment- serves as little more than a forced savings policy, barely tracks inflation and has never been a legitimate leading driver of GDP. What we have here is just another case of trying to transfuse a dead person.

  131. Ernest Money says:

    3b (133)-

    I vote for your “collapse in flames” option.

  132. Ernest Money says:

    joyce (134)-

    Yep. Once again, TPTB pisses on our feet, then tells us it’s raining.

  133. joyce says:

    (133)

    There are a few charts kicking around that illustrate the fact that rates have gone up during QE and only back down after QE ends.

    http://static7.businessinsider.com/image/4da4e496ccd1d5f1620f0000-568-390/qe-yields.jpg

    (I know I linked from business insider, but the chart was not made by them… it was just the first link I found with what I was looking for)

  134. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [115] joyce –
    Q. What is the other side to arithmetic?
    A. Congress

  135. 1993 House Buyer says:

    #134….not sure of your history of the 1920’s…but I do not buy into that Bernanke is “protecting banks”..to what purpose? I don’t think he owes anybody anything….I don’t think he care about being rich or famous, I think he just is doing what he feels is best for the country, and he may be wrong, but given the lack of clear action by Congress, this is what he is doing. To think his academic background is just “cover” sound conspiratorial. If you are well read on the depression and the actions of the central bankers you would clearly see his course of action is driven by the errors made there. That depression was not ending for 20 years if it were not for WWII. Again, he may be WRONG, but the actions are understandable, at least to my feeble mind

  136. chicagofinance says:

    That is awesome……

    Libtard in Union says:
    September 14, 2012 at 1:13 pm
    Here’s your seatmate…

  137. Libtard in Union says:

    I thought my crack about Romney’s adopted son was better.

  138. JJ's B.S says:

    Onions might not make her cry but I will.

    Libtard in Union says:
    September 14, 2012 at 1:13 pm

    Here’s your seatmate…

    http://tinyurl.com/dream-celeb

  139. Brian says:

    so how bout that iphone 5 eh joyce?

  140. chicagofinance says:

    The End Is Nigh (The End Is Nigh Edition):
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dlhhfpFBTk

  141. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [116] grim – Not necessarily inflationary. MBS assets are destroyed by 1.)default and 2.)prepayment . If you fail to print at a faster rate than the rate of destruction of assets you can still have a deflationary bias. Just as money is lent into existence it is vaporized by loan payback and loan default as both of these activities reduce the money supply.

    2) Is the act of buying the MBS effectively goosing the market in their favor. How? Let’s all first agree that this is net inflationary, therefore we must also accept that the underlying asset that backs the paper is wonderfully correlated with inflation, protecting their purchase.

  142. yo says:

    Grim,
    I agree the Fed can hold this bonds to maturity but they will not.They did QE to put more liquidity to the market.The bond holders that we gave liquidity are hoarding this money.Lets face it,until the Fed destroy this money supply that we paid the bond holders,it is inflationary.Only reason we dont see inflation is the money is not circulating in the economy.The big question is how fast can the Fed sell and destroy this excess money supply when this liquidity start going to small people that spends it.

  143. yo says:

    150 comments not even 2pm yet?

  144. yo says:

    Exactly.Now the money is going to flow directly to the homeowners.With their savings,they can use and spend it

    “Isn’t QE3 a necessary prerequisite for HARP 3.0?”

  145. JJ's B.S says:

    DAMM, supposedly through intel I am sitting next to “method man” and eva longoria.

    I got to brush up on his rap music and eva longoria trivia.

  146. Fabius Maximus says:

    My sister in law made it into the Urban dictionary with a great word. “Remammarate” Made me smile and remember my youth.

  147. Brian says:

    148 –
    Yeah I need money to buy a new charger. So pissed about that.

  148. yo says:

    QE3 is coming unless the Republican holds it.What color will you like that sir?

    Brian says:
    September 14, 2012 at 2:00 pm
    148 –
    Yeah I need money to buy a new charger. So pissed about that

  149. JJ's B.S says:

    Bond hoarders cant hoard when we have super low rates. I am 100% long right now bonds, rates are now so low I no longer want to reinvest interest and as bonds are called or mature I no longer want to buy new bonds. Bonds are not like gold or non-dividend paying stocks. So bondholders new choices are to buy real estate, stocks or spend. All things the Fed likes.

  150. joyce says:

    1993 House Buyer,

    America’s Great Depression by Murray Rothbard does a great job summing up the mistakes of the 1920’s which caused the Great Depression.
    http://mises.org/rothbard/agd.pdf

    And if you look recheck GDP and employment, the economy did not recover until AFTER the war. I’m not saying his background is cover as if it doesn’t exist, but him and the media referencing it each time he does something they are using it as cover when his actions are really protecting banks/bond holders. Remember the bailouts from Greenspan? (the Greenspan PUT)

    1993 House Buyer says:
    September 14, 2012 at 1:33 pm
    #134….not sure of your history of the 1920′s…but I do not buy into that Bernanke is “protecting banks”..to what purpose? I don’t think he owes anybody anything….I don’t think he care about being rich or famous, I think he just is doing what he feels is best for the country, and he may be wrong, but given the lack of clear action by Congress, this is what he is doing. To think his academic background is just “cover” sound conspiratorial. If you are well read on the depression and the actions of the central bankers you would clearly see his course of action is driven by the errors made there. That depression was not ending for 20 years if it were not for WWII. Again, he may be WRONG, but the actions are understandable, at least to my feeble mind

  151. joyce says:

    Bernanke’s school of thought includes stimulating aggregate demand at all costs!
    So why did the FED choose to use trillions of $ in bank bailout lending and foreign currency swaps vs say… buy everyone’s mortgage and freeing them up to spend?

    I’m not advocating that at all just asking

  152. Brian says:

    Hopefully, Harp 3 will come in time for Obama to buy my vote. If not, I promise, I will write in one of your njrereport handles.

    105.Ernest Money says:
    September 14, 2012 at 11:45 am
    BTW, no way in hell I ever vote again. Not even the school budget crap.

  153. Juice Box says:

    re# 312- 3B – “Huge gamble” not when it isn’t your money.

    Have to look at the end game on how they will get rid of this MBS. Bernake’s floor in MBS is to attract private investment which has not returned, and it will return even if they have to game the rules.

    Swallow hard if you work a Union job. In August the Department of Labor proposed changing ERISA rules to allow expanded investments in MBS/ABS by pension funds, specifically subordinate tranches. There is about $4 trillion in assets held by public pension funds, which now have only about 3.6% of that money invested in some kind of MBS/ABS all A rated tied to real estate. Under the propose rules your pension will be allowed (forced) to buy up some of the junk at market. I wonder who will be selling when that happens?

  154. Brian says:

    Hobo with a shotgun was my favorite.

  155. yo says:

    Lets put a scenario that the Fed holds this assets forever or destroy all this assets. Debts are all erased that is held by the Fed.My house and debts are paid thanks to the Fed.The US defaults on its debt.Hyperinflation occurs,bank runs.We love to compare ourselves to Argentina.They started growing again in 5 years.Are we going to grow again? Do we die when this happens?

  156. Happy Renter says:

    I have to say, once again I am humbled by how the collective wisdom on this blog, that was predicting QE-to-infinity a couple of year ago, was right (again).

    Somewhere in between Clot and Captain Sunshine (although sadly much closer to Clot) this board, as a whole, is pretty good at predictions.

    On another note, last night as I rode the train home late, I pulled up Google news on my mobile, and the five top headlines that fit on the screen read as follows:

    “Fed Undertakes QE3 With $40 Billion MBS Purchases Per Month”

    “More Violent Protests Break Out in Muslim World as US Appeals for Calm”

    “Suspect Identified in Central Park Daytime Rape”

    “US-Israeli Tensions Boiling Over Iran Nuclear Issue”

    and, the piece de resistance . . .

    “iPhone 5 Pros & Cons: Should You Pre-Order?”

  157. Anon E. Moose says:

    Fab [150];

    That’s from a woman? Interesting. I can claim ‘psychopause’.

  158. Juice Box says:

    Yo – you do know some nuclear armed countries hold Fannie, Freddie MBS and UST right? There can be no default without pain.

  159. chicagofinance says:

    For trivia just ask her whether she prefers Andouille or a Mexican Chorizo better?

    JJ’s B.S says:
    September 14, 2012 at 1:58 pm
    DAMM, supposedly through intel I am sitting next to “method man” and eva longoria.
    I got to brush up on his rap music and eva longoria trivia.

  160. 3B Buying says:

    #159 yo: They are growing again, and guranteed sooner rather than later they will be faltering again.

  161. Fast Eddie says:

    A presidential race that has been neck-and-neck for months suddenly isn’t. In the week after the political conventions ended, President Obama has opened the most significant, sustained lead in the daily Gallup Poll since Mitt Romney emerged as the Republican nominee last spring. Disappointing unemployment statistics released last Friday haven’t stemmed Obama’s rise. President Barack Obama holds leads over Mitt Romney in new polls of Ohio, Florida and Virginia, three of the states likely to determine who wins the White House in November.

    This blog has hardly been wrong since its inception and I have no reason to believe otherwise. The unwinding of a once powerful nation is now in the hands of a president equipped to handle the infancy of its middle-of-the-pack status. A weakling to oversee the weaklings. Very fitting and how ironic that the timing couldn’t be more perfect.

  162. 3B Buying says:

    #157 Juice: Understood, but I belive my synopsis is right, and in my own humbe opinion it will not work.

    not when it isn’t your money

  163. JJ's B.S says:

    What difference does it make. Let the next superpower pay for the wars.

    On to more important things. I was just invited to a big rosha shonna pool party on Sunday. Has anyone been to a jewish new years pool party before? What do I wear, what do I bring?

    Fast Eddie says:
    September 14, 2012 at 3:05 pm

    A presidential race that has been neck-and-neck for months suddenly isn’t. In the week after the political conventions ended, President Obama has opened the most significant, sustained lead in the daily Gallup Poll since Mitt Romney emerged as the Republican nominee last spring. Disappointing unemployment statistics released last Friday haven’t stemmed Obama’s rise. President Barack Obama holds leads over Mitt Romney in new polls of Ohio, Florida and Virginia, three of the states likely to determine who wins the White House in November.

    This blog has hardly been wrong since its inception and I have no reason to believe otherwise. The unwinding of a once powerful nation is now in the hands of a president equipped to handle the infancy of its middle-of-the-pack status. A weakling to oversee the weaklings. Very fitting and how ironic that the timing couldn’t be more perfect.

  164. yo says:

    We defaulted on our debt it does not mean we can not respond to a threat

    Juice Box says:

    September 14, 2012 at 2:55 pm

    Yo – you do know some nuclear armed countries hold Fannie, Freddie MBS and UST right? There can be no default without pain.

  165. Jill says:

    JJ: I suggest you leave your Maltese cross necklace at home.

    As to what to bring? You can’t go wrong with lox.

  166. Juice Box says:

    re # 157 – 3B – longer-term I too believe yes it won’t work out, the first QE was at the end of 2008 and here we are four years later with a promise of open-ended QE until infinity in yet another attempt to put a floor under housing. Meanwhile the labor participation rate continues to decline as the population increases.

    http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

    Housing recovery has never occurred before job recovery. Without a recovery in good paying jobs we will not see a housing recovery.

    JJ – just spelled it out the short term however in post #153. Panic in the bond market, bubbles blown elsewhere.

    Who says we don’t live in interesting times?

  167. All Hype says:

    “I also wonder what (if any) minimum ratings parameters are in place for the MBS they are about to start buying.”

    They will take anything that has MBS stamped on the document. Ratings, they are for movies!

    Final Doom, dead ahead!

  168. grim says:

    “I also wonder what (if any) minimum ratings parameters are in place for the MBS they are about to start buying.”

    Haven’t you heard, Halliburton has been hired to build a pipeline from Fanny and Freddie, straight into the basement at the Fed.

  169. Juice Box says:

    re# 168 – Yo we net import oil and net export debt we aren’t going to nuke anyone giving us oil and buying our debt. However they can refuse our debt and withhold their oil, then it’s boots on the ground since you cannot fuel up your car on plutonium enriched gasoline for too long before you start bleeding from all of your orifices.

  170. JJ's B.S says:

    Bringing Lox to a Jewish party is like bring ants to a picnic. Although I did think maybe a nice board game like Concentration might make a good gift.

    Jill says:
    September 14, 2012 at 3:31 pm

    JJ: I suggest you leave your Maltese cross necklace at home.

    As to what to bring? You can’t go wrong with lox.

  171. Mikewaited says:

    3b 132 my buddy the Colonel who is an MD also has MBA economics his call “stagflation” you are in good company.

  172. JJ's B.S says:

    I had ‘stagflation’ at a bachelor party once when the stripper gave me a lap dance. .

    FYI I dont think there is an MBA in economics, I think it is just a masters degree usually.

    Mikewaited says:
    September 14, 2012 at 3:45 pm

    3b 132 my buddy the Colonel who is an MD also has MBA economics his call “stagflation” you are in good company.

  173. Ragnar says:

    Has anyone commented on the plight of this poor lady in Montclair? Does JJ know Kim Ramsey?

    http://www.baristanet.com/2012/08/the-big-o-montclair-woman-has-too-much-of-a-good-thing/

  174. grim says:

    Chocolate ruggelach from Yochie’s Heimish in Passaic Park.

    Only because of that one little mix up with the bacon shortbread cookies, and now I’m banned from making anything.

  175. schabadoo says:

    Israel always looks after their own interest.

    No they don’t.

    In ’73 they had the Egyptian 3rd surrounded and let them go due to the US. They didn’t retaliate to the Scud attacks in the first Gulf War due to the US trying to hold together a coalition.

  176. AG says:

    Albert Pike’s Amazing Predictions Of Three World Wars

    “The Third World War must be fomented by taking advantage of the differences caused by the “agentur” of the “Illuminati” between the political Zionists and the leaders of Islamic World. The war must be conducted in such a way that Islam (the Moslem Arabic World) and political Zionism (the State of Israel) mutually destroy each other. Meanwhile the other nations, once more divided on this issue will be constrained to fight to the point of complete physical, moral, spiritual and economical exhaustionWe shall unleash the Nihilists and the atheists, and we shall provoke a formidable social cataclysm which in all its horror will show clearly to the nations the effect of absolute atheism, origin of savagery and of the most bloody turmoil. Then everywhere, the citizens, obliged to defend themselves against the world minority of revolutionaries, will exterminate those destroyers of civilization, and the multitude, disillusioned with Christianity, whose deistic spirits will from that moment be without compass or direction, anxious for an ideal, but without knowing where to render its adoration, will receive the true light through the universal manifestation of the pure doctrine of Lucifer, brought finally out in the public view. This manifestation will result from the general reactionary movement which will follow the destruction of Christianity and atheism, both conquered and exterminated at the same time.”

  177. AG says:

    Total Doom is coming. Its going to be far worse than anyone imagines.

  178. JJ's B.S says:

    BOSTON — Mitt Romney is promising to reduce taxes on middle-income Americans.

    But how does he define “middle-income”? The Republican presidential nominee defined it Friday as income of $200,000 to $250,000 a year and less.

    The definition of “middle income” or the “middle class” is politically charged as Romney and President Barack Obama fight to win over working-class voters. Romney would be among the wealthiest presidents, if elected, and Democrats have repeatedly painted him as out of touch with average people.

    Obama also has set his definition for “middle class” as families with income of up to $250,000 a year.

    Romney’s comments came an interview broadcast Friday on ABC’s “Good Morning America.”

    “No one can say my plan is going to raise taxes on middle-income people, because principle number one is (to) keep the burden down on middle-income taxpayers,” Romney told host George Stephanopoulos.

    “Is $100,000 middle income?” Stephanopoulos asked.

    “No, middle income is $200,000 to $250,000 and less,” Romney responded.

  179. cobbler says:

    jj [167]
    As it will be cool on Sunday, I guess you should wear a wetsuit.

    As for the pension funds, I don’t see any reason why they shouldn’t own Fannie/Freddie MBS – they are as likely/unlikely to default as the Treasuries, and pay much more. As long as they hold to maturity, they will not lose any nominal value.

  180. AG says:

    Suburban Dads vs the urban nihilists. When Home Depot is stocking constantina wire you know we are almost at end game.

  181. AG says:

    By the way. The g_v is coming for your IRA’s and they will stuffed full of UST’s.

  182. grim says:

    182 – A teacher and a cop in North Jersey is $200k, no?

  183. Mikewaited says:

    Ragnar 177 Oh the horror!

  184. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    A sticker on the sidewalk on Broadway made me think of this place.

    It said “unicornmeat”.

  185. Ragnar says:

    Mike,
    In another story, she said she “tried sitting on frozen peas”, to stop the Os. To no avail.

  186. 3b buying so what who cares says:

    # 182: well if that is mitt s belief than a lot of people in the 100 to 199k salary range are goinf to have hurt egos!!

  187. All Hype says:

    Total Doom is coming:
    September 14, 2016; Bloomfield Avenue, Montclair NJ.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4lc637l5tM

  188. Juice Box says:

    I wonder how much of these riots in the Middle East are really looters looking to be opportunistic?

    Anecdotal but last year during the riots in Egypt gunmen stormed an interdenominational Church in Cairo and shot up the place demanding money. The pastor at the time was someone I know, he moved there in 2008 because he wanted to be a missionary and contribute to the peace process. Needless to say he hightailed it to the Airport.

    Our State Department and military are going to be busy now evacuating allot of people over the next few days if these riots continue.

  189. grim says:

    Fed held about $840 billion in MBS as of June, down from $1.2 trillion during the crisis.

    If they could liquidate 30% of their holdings without much hoopla, between then and now, what’s the big deal about a couple of 40 billion dollar months.

  190. JJ's B.S says:

    If he is talking household income, nobody in bergan county as an entire household including dividends, interest, cap gains and hidden earnings, 401k, 529, FSA, Trans check, etc. makes under 200k.

    3b buying so what who cares says:
    September 14, 2012 at 4:17 pm

    # 182: well if that is mitt s belief than a lot of people in the 100 to 199k salary range are goinf to have hurt egos!!

  191. Juice Box says:

    Grim they weren’t sold, they were rolled into UST as they matured. Same game of inflation and monetizing still applies since the Federal Reserve’s holdings of securities is increasing. The cash they electronically printed is still out there held in excess reserves by the banks and their customers and can still cause a nice bout of inflation if lent out. Global credit whent from $57 trillion to $109 trillion between 2000 and 2009, the new goal as stated at the 2011 World Economic Forum in Davos was 100 Trillion in new lending over the next 10 years in-effect a doubling of the money supply everywhere.

  192. grim says:

    In 2011, in NJ:

    56% of buyers had a household income of above $100,000
    20% of buyers had a household income of above $200,000

  193. grim says:

    Average HH income of the repeat married buyer was $142,000 statewide. Close to 40% of repeat buyers had a HH income of $150,000 or higher.

  194. Ann says:

    194 You’re kidding right?

  195. grim says:

    If we’re talking about North Jersey, I’d bump those up at least 10% if not 20%.

  196. Ernest Money says:

    1993 house buyer (139)-

    I took a long posting break so you could go score some more crack.

    “…but I do not buy into that Bernanke is “protecting banks”..to what purpose? I don’t think he owes anybody anything….I don’t think he care about being rich or famous, I think he just is doing what he feels is best for the country…”

  197. Ernest Money says:

    jj (149)-

    Don’t even bother posting unless you can get a quick rub and tug from her.

    “DAMM, supposedly through intel I am sitting next to “method man” and eva longoria.”

  198. Mikewaited says:

    Jill have a guy! Grim give Jill my email if she wants it.
    Ragnar 189 ever want to be peas! Sorry ladies………………….

  199. Ernest Money says:

    Okay, so Yo isn’t Kim Jong Il. That pretty much means he has to be a spambot. Or, he runs all his posts through Google Translate.

    “QE3 is coming unless the Republican holds it.What color will you like that sir?”

  200. Ernest Money says:

    jj (167)-

    Depends. Are you circumcised?

    “Has anyone been to a jewish new years pool party before? What do I wear, what do I bring?”

  201. Ernest Money says:

    AG (180)-

    What he said.

  202. yo says:

    HARP3 is coming

    “QE3 is coming unless the Republican holds it.What color will you like that sir?”

  203. AG says:

    QE to infiinity! Don’t worry. I’m just a conspiracy theorist with a Doom hobby. Bwahahaha!

    “Bank of America just predicted at least 2 years and change of constant monetization, which would send the Fed’s balance sheet to grand total of just over $5,000,000,000,000 as the Fed adds another $2.2 trillion MBS and Treasury notional to the current total of $2.8 trillion. ”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bofa-sees-fed-assets-surpassing-5-trillion-2015-leading-3350-gold-and-190-crude

  204. AG says:

    Wonder what the ECB and the PBOC will do. The poor irradiated Japs are going to have to print a cool quadrillion if the West keeps this up.

    Beggar thy irradiated neighbor b_tchez!

  205. Bagholder Brian says:

    I want my HARP 3!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  206. Bagholder Brian says:

    Push the button get a pellet!
    Push the button get a pellet!
    Gimme! Gimme! Gimme!

  207. All Hype says:

    AG (208):
    $150 oil will knockout the worldwide economy. $190 oil is about $6.50/gallon gas. I do not think it will get that high but if super inflation hits we maybe in for a long ride.

    I would love $3350 gold.

  208. Bagholder Brian says:

    Capitalism and Government Are Friends After All
    By Alex Marshall
    September 13, 2012 6:30 PM EDT
    Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Queue

    Americans will be getting an earful about the perils or virtues of government until they vote on Nov. 6. But they won’t hear anything about what it is exactly.
    To Republicans, government is a cancerous force, there to secure what their platform calls “our God-given liberties.” Success comes only through individual hard work, nurtured by faith and family. As the platform explains: “We are the party of maximum economic freedom,” which promotes prosperity so “individuals and families can maintain their freedom from government.”
    To Democrats, government can help you get a job, medical care and more. It enables us to show that “we’re all in this together,” as former President Bill Clinton said in his speech at the Democratic National Convention.
    The Democrats have a view of government that is closer to my own, but even they struggle to explain the deeper role that it plays in our lives: creating and maintaining the very marketplace that Republicans worship.
    There is this idea, not discussed because it is so widely accepted even on the political left, that some sort of independent, free-standing market exists with its own laws, similar to those of natural systems, such as the law of gravity. Democrats want to poke, prod and regulate this market; Republicans say they want to leave it alone. But this so-called free market doesn’t exist, not even as a valid concept. Governments create markets.
    Government is responsible for every aspect of the market economy, from writing the laws defining private property, corporations and intellectual property, to building the roads on which commerce depends. When business was simpler, centuries ago, government built simple markets. Today, it creates more complicated ones.
    It took centuries of evolution to arrive at today’s system of property ownership, where a piece of land can be measured, bought and sold like a commodity. For thousands of years, kings handed out patents — essentially a grant of government power — for land (thus “land patents”) or as a grant of monopoly power to sell something, say salt or bricks. In 1474, the Venetian Senate was the first to set up a patent system aimed at promoting invention. The new law let inventors know, in advance, that they would be rewarded with limited monopoly rights for significant new creations. Other nations copied this.
    Governments have invested in physical infrastructure, such as roads, ports and waterworks, for as long as they have existed. A high point was New York State’s construction of the Erie Canal in 1825, inspired by an earlier federal plan for roads and canals put forward by Thomas Jefferson’s brilliant treasury secretary, Albert Gallatin. Paul Johnson, the conservative British historian, called the Erie Canal the greatest public-works project of all time in terms of the wealth it created. Today’s discussion in the U.S. of state and federal investment in high-speed train lines is a continuation of the long debates over which kinds of infrastructure to invest in.
    Just as there can be good and bad forms of government, such as democracies and dictatorships, there can be good and bad markets. There used to be a vast body of law dealing with the buying, selling and ownership of slaves, for example. When Congress finally outlawed slavery through the 14th Amendment in the 19th century, all that was swept away.
    If you like markets, if you applaud individual success and private business, you like government. One is not possible without the other. The relationship of government to the private marketplace and capitalism as a whole is one of parent and child.
    Paul Ryan, the Republican vice-presidential nominee, might never accept this, if he is a strict believer in novelist Ayn Rand’s view that government is a parasite on the body of a marketplace that works by itself. But there is hope for the rest of us. We can stop talking about markets versus government, and start talking about what markets we want. In a democracy, if we understand that government creates markets, it means that we — the people — shape them. And our candidates should tell us how they would shape them.
    I would like to see Mitt Romney and Barack Obama talk about what changes are needed in the state and federal system of chartering corporations, for example. And does either candidate have ideas for how the patent and copyright systems should be altered in an age when words, sounds and images can be transmitted across the world at no cost? These issues should not be left to the courts and lobbyists.
    Government doesn’t just change the light bulbs in the arena that private businesses operate in. It designed the whole stadium. This election is about acknowledging this, or remaining willfully in the dark.
    (Alex Marshall, a senior fellow at the Regional Plan Association in New York, is the author of the new book “The Surprising Design of Market Economies.” The opinions expressed are his own.)
    Read more opinion online from Bloomberg View. Subscribe to receive a daily e-mail highlighting new View editorials, columns and op-ed articles.
    Today’s highlights: the editors on the tax spat in France, on Egypt’s dance around the U.S. embassy breach and on the disingenuousness of last year’s debt-ceiling debate; Jonathan Alter on Romney’s “No Apology” foreign policy; Stephen Carter on the need for politics to stop at the water’s edge; Noah Feldman on China’s invisible heir apparent; Ezra Klein on a carbon-tax fantasy; Willie Pesek on China’s missing No. 2 man; Jonathan Weil on banks that admit their balance sheets are awful.
    To contact the writer of this article: Alex Marshall at alex@rpa.org
    To contact the editor responsible for this article: Katy Roberts at kroberts29@bloomberg.net

  209. AG says:

    212,

    Hype,

    Once oil hits 190 a barrel US oil will start coming online. We won’t be destroyed. Only transformed into a 100% fascist state. Meanwhile the Middle East will be a smoldering ruin.

    I dont philosophically agree with it but I am just a pawn on the chess board.

  210. AG says:

    Dont’t be decieved that the US has no oil. We just used up the ME oil first. Some people ask what worth gold has. Well gold buys oil. Those that control both gold and oil make the rules.

  211. AG says:

    210,

    Brian,

    So you haven’t been able to refi? WTF? I left myself off the HARP 2 Wells Fargo mortgage just so I would qualify. If you are self employed you are f_cked. Hell I showed them a checking account statement with enough cash to pay it off in full but they still f_cked with me. They specifically said, “If you want this to go smoothly put your wife on it and pretend you don’t exist.”

  212. grim says:

    You know what’ll right this ship?

    Bourbon.

  213. AG says:

    216,

    Correction,

    Enough Federal Reserve Notes to pay it off in full but they still f_cked with me.

    Man the next few years are going to be exciting. Study it. The history books will likely leave it out. To all the political wh_res on njrereport stop wasting your time. You are better off with Obama at this point. Rombama will only add uncertainty to an already unstable situation. He will fix nothing. The decision has been made. Its QE to infinity until total collapse. Get yourselves in position to benefit This includes the following.

    1. Don’t let your kids die in some stupid war.
    2. Protect your wealth, property, and life with lethal force if necessary.

  214. Mikewaited says:

    I vote Scotch, but whatever!

  215. grim says:

    Jeez, I take it that I’m the only idiot that actually paid to refinance…

    (I needed the appraisal)

  216. grim says:

    219 – Clearly how extremist conflicts begin

    I don’t think you can switch from bourbon to scotch, I believe my only option is rye.

  217. Mikewaited says:

    Ag 215 oil: been my position for a long time , use up theirs then use ours. We have a sh*t load if we have to get it. May have to shoot a few greens but I doubt it, cold & hungry they will unhug the tree.

  218. grim says:

    We’ll find a way to frack septic tanks for gas before we run out of fossil fuels to burn.

  219. Mikewaited says:

    grim OK I’m easy, as long as it gets the job done!

  220. Mikewaited says:

    AG I guess I need even MORE ammo.

  221. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [225] mike

    Don’t forget booze.

    And in that vein, E. Money is so money.

    Money just dropped off two cases of vino that would cost me more to buy in Delaware, and the distributor is the same as Moore Bros. distributor.

    I must have bought at least 8, and more likely 10 cases of wine from E. Money. Haven’t liked every bottle, tis true, but liked enough to stock my cellar largely with E. Money suggestions.

    If you haven’t gone to JC to buy wine from clot/meat/money, you are doing yourself a disservice.

  222. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [223] grim,

    You can actually collect and use methane from that source, and I wish there was a way to commercialize it for home use.

    On Doomsday Preppers, one prepper actually created a methane c0llection system for his Nompound that uses the pig droppings. And he had a very good reason as to why that was preferable, a reason I hadn’t thought of: It’s odorless, so if you are prepping, you can’t be detected from your exhaust. By contrast, if you burn wood, someone can detect you from miles away. Guess I am not enough of a paranoid redneck type because that never occurred to me.

  223. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [221] grim,

    bourbon and scotch can coexist.

    “Can’t we all just get along???”

  224. cobbler says:

    nom [227]
    You will need about 20-30 people per cesspool, depending on their diet (less protein and fat!), to make some useful volume of biogas. Pigs are actually much more productive v. amount of sh1t per capita.

  225. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Companies are offering nompound land on television now.

    I so have to get on this.

  226. sac hermes says:

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